al-brooks-course
25A - Double Tops and Bottoms
Raw transcript and slide notes for 25A - Double Tops and Bottoms.
Overview
- Slides: 21
- Transcript segments: 656
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:06
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:06 - 00:10
EN: This is the first of two videos on Double Tops and Bottoms.
ZH: 接下来的两节课我们来讲双顶和双底
Slide 001
Time: 00:12
Bilingual Transcript
00:14 - 00:18
EN: I use a very broad definition of a Double Top and a Double Bottom.
ZH: 我对双顶和双底的定义非常宽泛
00:19 - 00:23
EN: I’ll then move on to talk about why Double Tops and Double Bottoms work.
ZH: 我会讲为什么双顶和双底可以导致反转
00:24 - 00:29
EN: Next, I’ll talk about Double Top bull flags and Double Bottom bear flags.
ZH: 最后，我会讲双顶牛旗和双底熊旗
Slide 002
Time: 00:30
Bilingual Transcript
00:32 - 00:35
EN: I’m moving through the list of reversal patterns.
ZH: 我们正在按照这个反转结构的列表讲解
00:39 - 00:42
EN: A Double Top or a Double Bottom can be either
ZH: 双顶和双底，可以是旗形 （上涨趋势，双底牛旗；下降趋势，双顶熊旗）
Slide 003
Time: 00:40
Bilingual Transcript
00:42 - 00:45
EN: a flag (a continuation pattern) or a reversal.
ZH: 也可以是大的反转机会 （上涨趋势，双顶大反转；下降趋势，双底大反转）
00:49 - 00:53
EN: They’re present on every chart, and many of them are present on every chart.
ZH: 每张K线图上，都有很多双顶和双底
00:53 - 00:57
EN: There are often two or three ways to draw the lines.
ZH: 通常有两到三种画线的方法
01:00 - 01:02
EN: Again, they can be a pullback in a trend
ZH: 再讲一遍，它们可以是趋势中的回调 （上涨趋势，双底牛旗；下降趋势，双顶熊旗）
01:02 - 01:05
EN: or they can be a reversal leading to an opposite trend.
ZH: 也可以是对左边趋势的大反转 （上涨趋势，双顶大反转；下降趋势，双底大反转）
01:08 - 01:12
EN: Many of them are too small to trade profitably on the chart in front of you;
ZH: 很多时候，K线图上的双顶和双底太小了， 不值得去交易（赚不到钱）
01:12 - 01:16
EN: however, if you were to trade down to a smaller timeframe chart,
ZH: 然而，如果你去更小的时间周期交易，
01:16 - 01:18
EN: they would be big enough to trade.
ZH: 它们的结构可能就足够大了，可以交易
01:19 - 01:20
EN: Many are good for swings.
ZH: 很多双顶和双底有波段交易的机会
01:20 - 01:23
EN: Many are only good for scalp trades.
ZH: 很多只是剥头皮的机会
01:26 - 01:31
EN: I think it’s very important to be flexible
ZH: 在定义双顶和双底的时候， 我认为保持灵活、变通很重要
01:28 - 01:31
EN: in how you define a Double Top and a Double Bottom.
ZH: 在定义双顶和双底的时候， 我认为保持灵活、变通很重要
01:31 - 01:36
EN: You have to be that way because the computers are, and they control the market.
ZH: 你必须这么做，因为计算机就是这样，它们控制着市场
01:40 - 01:45
EN: The concept is if there’s a rally and then a pullback and then another rally,
ZH: 双顶的本质是：如果市场上涨、回调、再次上涨，
01:45 - 01:47
EN: it’s testing the high of the first rally.
ZH: 就是在测试前一次上涨的高点
01:47 - 01:50
EN: Will the rally continue, or will it reverse?
ZH: 上涨会继续吗？还是会反转？
01:50 - 01:52
EN: And the opposite is true at a bottom.
ZH: 双底则正好相反
01:52 - 01:56
EN: If there’s a selloff and then a pullback and then the bear trend resumes,
ZH: 如果市场下跌、反弹、然后再次下跌，
01:56 - 02:00
EN: will the bear trend continue past the prior low, or will it reverse?
ZH: 下降趋势能继续突破前期的低点吗？还是会反转？
02:00 - 02:02
EN: It’s testing the prior low.
ZH: 市场正在测试前期的低点
02:04 - 02:06
EN: For example, we reversed down here.
ZH: 比如，这里市场反转下跌
02:06 - 02:11
EN: We tried to get up there again, and we reversed down again, but at a lower price.
ZH: 多头尝试再次上涨， 但是在一个更低的价格又反转下跌，
02:11 - 02:13
EN: This is a Double Top.
ZH: 这是一个双顶
02:13 - 02:16
EN: This tested that high and could not even get close to it.
ZH: 市场尝试测试那个高点，但甚至无法接近它
02:19 - 02:23
EN: We pulled back and we went up again, and this time we went to a new high.
ZH: 回调然后再次上涨，这次达到了新的高点
02:23 - 02:26
EN: We twice tried to go above it – here, pullback, here,
ZH: 两次尝试突破它——这里，回调，这里
02:26 - 02:29
EN: and then even a third time – and we failed.
ZH: 甚至第3次尝试——都失败了
02:29 - 02:34
EN: This high then become a Double Top test of this high, and it led to a reversal.
ZH: 这是对前期高点的又一次测试，然后反转下跌
02:36 - 02:38
EN: It’s a slight Higher High Double Top.
ZH: 这是一个高点抬高的双顶（大反转）
02:40 - 02:42
EN: Strong bear breakout.
ZH: 强势的空头突破
02:42 - 02:45
EN: A reversal attempt, the bear trend resuming,
ZH: 反弹之后，继续下跌
02:45 - 02:49
EN: yet it reversed up again from around the same price.
ZH: 但是在相同的价格再次反转上涨
02:49 - 02:52
EN: There are more buyers than sellers at this price.
ZH: 在这个价格上，买盘大于卖盘
02:52 - 02:53
EN: This is a Double Bottom.
ZH: 这是一个双底
02:53 - 02:56
EN: It’s a Higher Low Double Bottom, but it’s a Double Bottom.
ZH: 尽管低点略微抬高，但它仍然是双底
02:58 - 03:01
EN: Bull trend, pullback, break to a new high.
ZH: 上涨，回调，突破新高
03:01 - 03:03
EN: This is testing that high.
ZH: 市场在测试前期的那个高点
03:03 - 03:08
EN: It’s also testing this high, so it’s a Double Top with this for some computers,
ZH: 同时也在测试这个高点，所以对某些电脑程序来说， 这是一个双顶
03:08 - 03:11
EN: a Double Top with that for other computers.
ZH: 对一些电脑程序来说，那是一个双顶
03:11 - 03:13
EN: It’s also a Micro Double Top with this.
ZH: 这里还有一个小双顶
03:13 - 03:14
EN: It went up, it reversed.
ZH: 上涨，下跌；
03:14 - 03:16
EN: It went up again, it reversed again.
ZH: 再次上涨，再次下跌
03:19 - 03:24
EN: This is testing that low and that low, so it’s a Double Bottom with this low.
ZH: 它在测试这个低点和那个低点， 所以（尝试）和这个低点形成双底
03:24 - 03:26
EN: Other computers would say it’s a Double Bottom with that low.
ZH: 一些电脑程序会认为和那个低点形成双底
03:29 - 03:30
EN: Micro Double Top.
ZH: 小双顶
03:30 - 03:33
EN: We went up and down and then up again.
ZH: 上涨，下跌；再次上涨，再次下跌
03:33 - 03:36
EN: You might not be able to see the small blue line on top of that red line.
ZH: 这里我画了一个小的蓝线，不过和红线有点重叠
03:38 - 03:40
EN: Micro Double Bottom.
ZH: 小双底
03:40 - 03:44
EN: We went down, reversed up, sold off to that same price again,
ZH: 下降，上涨；再次跌到相同的价格，
03:44 - 03:46
EN: and again found buyers and reversed up again.
ZH: 又遇到了买盘，再次上涨
03:46 - 03:48
EN: Micro Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 这是一个小双底牛旗
03:48 - 03:50
EN: Two pushes down, one, pullback, two.
ZH: 两次下跌——1，反弹，2
03:53 - 03:55
EN: Big selloff.
ZH: 大幅下跌
03:55 - 04:00
EN: We went back up to that price again over here and reversed down again.
ZH: 涨回到那个价格附近，再次反转下跌
04:00 - 04:03
EN: This is a Double Top with this.
ZH: 这是一个双顶
04:03 - 04:05
EN: And within it, there’s a Micro Double Top:
ZH: 在它的内部，有一个小双顶
04:05 - 04:07
EN: on this bar, the market went up, then down.
ZH: 这个十字星，市场先上涨，再下跌
04:07 - 04:10
EN: Next bar went up, and the third bar went down.
ZH: 第2根K线上涨，第3根K线下跌
04:10 - 04:14
EN: A Micro Double Top increases the chances of a reversal.
ZH: 小双顶增加了反转的概率 （注：嵌套式结构，反转的概率变高）
04:14 - 04:17
EN: Here’s a small Double Top here, here’s a Micro Double Top here.
ZH: 这里有一个小双顶，这也是一个小双顶
04:17 - 04:20
EN: Up and down, up and then down.
ZH: 上涨，下跌；再次上涨、下降
04:24 - 04:26
EN: Micro Double Bottom.
ZH: 小双底
04:26 - 04:30
EN: The market went down, and then on this bar it went up and down again,
ZH: 市场跌下来，这根K线（十字星）先涨上去， 然后又跌回来了
04:30 - 04:32
EN: and it went a little bit lower on this bar.
ZH: 这根K线也下跌了一点点
04:32 - 04:35
EN: So it went down, up, and down, and then reversed up.
ZH: 所以下跌，上涨；然后再次下跌，最后反转上涨
04:35 - 04:41
EN: It became a bear flag, but it’s still
ZH: 尽管（这个小双底）只是反弹， 但仍然是跌破前期低点之后的小双底尝试
04:37 - 04:41
EN: a Micro Double Bottom after the breakout below these lows.
ZH: 尽管（这个小双底）只是反弹， 但仍然是跌破前期低点之后的小双底尝试
04:43 - 04:44
EN: Micro Double Top.
ZH: 小双顶
04:44 - 04:49
EN: The market went up and down, and then it went up on this bar
ZH: 市场上涨，下跌；然后在这两根K线上涨了一些， 再次反转下跌
04:47 - 04:49
EN: and a little bit more on that bar and reversed down.
ZH: 市场上涨，下跌；然后在这两根K线上涨了一些， 再次反转下跌
04:49 - 04:52
EN: Bear flag testing this breakout point.
ZH: 这是小双顶熊旗，反弹回测这个突破点
04:55 - 04:58
EN: Top of the bear flag, we sold off strongly.
ZH: 从双顶熊旗开始大幅下跌
04:58 - 05:00
EN: We’re back up at that price again.
ZH: 现在涨回到这个价格附近
05:00 - 05:05
EN: Will we sell off again? Probably not, after 8 bull bars.
ZH: 会再次大跌吗？也许不会，因为左边是连续8根阳线上涨 （注：至少直接反转的概率低，需要至少第2次尝试）
05:05 - 05:08
EN: However, it was an attempt by the bears to get a Double Top.
ZH: 然而，这里空头尝试形成一个双顶
05:08 - 05:11
EN: It became a bull flag, a small bull flag.
ZH: 它最终变成了一个小的牛旗
05:13 - 05:17
EN: This next attempt to reverse down around that high succeeded.
ZH: 在这个位置，再次尝试反转下跌，成功了
05:17 - 05:19
EN: So this is a Double Top.
ZH: 所以这是一个双顶
05:22 - 05:24
EN: The market sold off down to this area.
ZH: 市场跌到这个区域
05:24 - 05:27
EN: It collapsed, yet found buyers.
ZH: 崩盘大跌，但是（在前期低点附近）被买起来
05:27 - 05:28
EN: Tried to sell off again, found buyers.
ZH: 尝试再次下跌，又被买起来
05:28 - 05:32
EN: Went up and down here, tried to sell off again, and found buyers.
ZH: 这根K线先上涨，再下跌，还是被买起来
05:32 - 05:35
EN: This is a Double Bottom – a Higher Low Double Bottom.
ZH: 这是一个低点抬高的大双底
05:37 - 05:39
EN: Micro Double Bottom.
ZH: （蓝线）小双底（牛旗）
05:39 - 05:43
EN: The market went up for 3 bars, tried to resume down in a bear flag.
ZH: 市场上涨了3根K线，尝试恢复下跌
05:43 - 05:46
EN: Instead, the bulls bought it and went up again.
ZH: 然而多头买入，市场再次上涨
05:46 - 05:52
EN: Down again, twice trying to resume the bear trend, and the bulls bought it again.
ZH: 再次下跌，两次尝试恢复下降趋势， 又被多头买起来了
05:52 - 05:54
EN: A Micro Double Bottom led to a breakout.
ZH: 小双底牛旗，向上突破
05:54 - 05:59
EN: This high, these lows, Measured Move up to here.
ZH: 这个高点，这些低点（之间是测量型缺口） 所以有MM目标位，涨到这里
06:02 - 06:03
EN: Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 小双底牛旗
06:03 - 06:05
EN: The market rallied here.
ZH: 市场涨到这里
06:05 - 06:06
EN: The bears wanted a Double Top.
ZH: 空头想制造一个双顶
06:07 - 06:11
EN: It sold off briefly to form a tail on the bottom of that bar.
ZH: 这根K线的下影线，就是一次短暂的下跌回调
06:11 - 06:13
EN: It tried to form a Micro Double Top here
ZH: 尝试在这里形成一个小双顶，再次下跌
06:13 - 06:17
EN: and sell off again from a bigger Double Top here.
ZH: 同时也和它形成了更大的双顶
06:17 - 06:18
EN: The bulls bought it again.
ZH: 多头再次买入
06:18 - 06:21
EN: A small Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 小的双底牛旗
06:23 - 06:25
EN: A bull breakout above that high.
ZH: 突破创新高
06:26 - 06:30
EN: The bears tried to reverse, and the bulls bought it again around this price.
ZH: 空头尝试反转，而多头在这个价格附近再次买入
06:30 - 06:32
EN: Another Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 这又是一个双底牛旗
06:34 - 06:37
EN: The market went up and reversed down strongly here.
ZH: 稍微涨了一些之后，市场强势地反转下跌
06:37 - 06:39
EN: It tried to resume up.
ZH: 尝试继续上涨
06:39 - 06:41
EN: It did pretty well, but at the same price,
ZH: 看起来很不错，但是在这个相同的价格
06:41 - 06:44
EN: slightly above maybe, it reversed down again.
ZH: 也许略微高一点点，大反转下跌
06:44 - 06:47
EN: A Micro Double Top and a Double Top with that high,
ZH: 这是一个小双顶，也和那个高点组成了双顶
06:47 - 06:50
EN: and this is a Double Top with this high.
ZH: 同时也和那个高点组成了双顶
06:50 - 06:52
EN: Different computers view the tests differently.
ZH: 如何定义测试（对前期高/低点的测试）， 不同的电脑程序有不同的算法
06:54 - 06:58
EN: Micro Double Bottom and a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 小双底，还有低点抬高的大反转
06:58 - 07:01
EN: Bear trend, bull breakout, two legs down.
ZH: 下降趋势，多头突破，两段下跌
07:02 - 07:04
EN: We got a Higher Low reversal,
ZH: 形成更高的低点，反转成功
07:04 - 07:07
EN: and it came with a Micro Double Bottom here and another one here.
ZH: 而且这里有小双底，这里也是
07:09 - 07:11
EN: We had a Double Top bear flag here.
ZH: 这里有一个双顶熊旗
07:11 - 07:16
EN: The market went up, tried to resume down.
ZH: 上涨，下跌；再次上涨，下跌
07:14 - 07:16
EN: Went up again, tried to resume down.
ZH: 上涨，下跌；再次上涨，下跌
07:16 - 07:20
EN: This low went below that low, so it triggered the Low 2 short,
ZH: 这个低点比那个低点更低， 所以空头的低2卖单被触发了
07:20 - 07:24
EN: yet there were buyers below that bear flag and the market reversed up.
ZH: 然而在熊旗下方，更多人在买入，所以市场反转上涨
07:24 - 07:29
EN: A Double Bottom Higher Low,
ZH: 这是低点抬高的双底大发转
07:26 - 07:29
EN: or you could simply call it a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 这是低点抬高的双底大发转
07:30 - 07:32
EN: Another Micro Double Bottom.
ZH: 另一个小双底
07:32 - 07:33
EN: We went down, we went up.
ZH: 下跌，上涨；
07:33 - 07:38
EN: On this bar we also went down again,
ZH: 从这个高点，到下根K线，又下跌； 然后再次反转上涨
07:35 - 07:38
EN: a little bit more down on the next bar, and we reversed up a second time.
ZH: 从这个高点，到下根K线，又下跌； 然后再次反转上涨
07:39 - 07:41
EN: The market three times tried to go down
ZH: 市场3次尝试下跌——
07:41 - 07:45
EN: - here, here, and then from this high to this low.
ZH: 这里，这里，然后从这个高点到这个低点
07:45 - 07:46
EN: All three times failed.
ZH: 3次都失败了
07:47 - 07:50
EN: When the market repeatedly tries to do something and fails,
ZH: 当市场反复尝试做某事并失败时
07:50 - 07:52
EN: it often then tries to do the opposite.
ZH: 它通常会尝试做相反的事情
07:53 - 07:57
EN: Here we tried to go to a new low, here and here.
ZH: 市场尝试向下突破，这里和这里
07:57 - 07:58
EN: Twice failed.
ZH: 两次都失败了
07:58 - 07:59
EN: Did the opposite.
ZH: 开始反转上涨
08:01 - 08:03
EN: The market went up and down on this bar.
ZH: 这根K线先上涨，再下跌
08:03 - 08:06
EN: It went up on the next bar and then down on the third bar.
ZH: 第2根K线上涨，第3根K线下跌
08:06 - 08:07
EN: Micro Double Top.
ZH: 小双顶
08:07 - 08:11
EN: Up, down, up, and then down.
ZH: 上涨，下跌；再上涨，在下跌
08:11 - 08:14
EN: It’s also a big Double Top with here.
ZH: 这也是一个大的双顶
08:16 - 08:19
EN: The bulls tried to resume the trend again.
ZH: 多头再次尝试恢复趋势
08:19 - 08:22
EN: Two legs up, one, pullback, two, and it’s stalling.
ZH: 两端上涨——1，回调，2； 目前上涨停滞了
08:22 - 08:25
EN: This high is testing that high, so it’s a Double Top.
ZH: 它是在测试那个高点，所以这是一个双顶
08:25 - 08:28
EN: Will the bull trend break out and continue up,
ZH: 市场会继续上涨，突破创新高吗？
08:28 - 08:31
EN: or will it reverse down? We don’t know.
ZH: 还是会反转下跌？最好等待，因为目前处于小震荡区间
08:34 - 08:35
EN: Double Top bear flag.
ZH: 双顶熊旗
08:35 - 08:39
EN: We sold off with 4 consecutive bear bars after a big Double Top.
ZH: 在一个大的双顶之后，连续4根阴线下跌
08:39 - 08:41
EN: This could be the start of a big bear trend.
ZH: 这有可能是一个大下降趋势的开始
08:42 - 08:44
EN: Instead, the Double Top bear flag triggered
ZH: 双顶熊旗（的突破卖单）被触发了
08:44 - 08:49
EN: and went below the low of the signal bar, but immediately reversed up.
ZH: 价格跌破了做空信号K线的最低点，但是立刻反转上涨
08:49 - 08:52
EN: It became a failed Double Top bear flag.
ZH: 这个双顶熊旗失败了
08:53 - 08:56
EN: Instead, it became a Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 反而变成了双底牛旗
08:56 - 08:59
EN: Bull trend, a reversal attempt.
ZH: 上涨趋势，反转下跌的尝试
09:00 - 09:04
EN: Tried to reverse up, tried to reverse down again,
ZH: 上涨，再次尝试下跌
09:04 - 09:06
EN: and we got a Double Bottom at the prior low.
ZH: 然后在前期的低点形成小双底
09:06 - 09:10
EN: The bears failed to get their Double Top bear flag
ZH: 空头想要跌破双顶熊旗，但是失败了，
09:10 - 09:12
EN: and we got a Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 结果变成双底牛期
09:12 - 09:14
EN: It’s a small Trading Range.
ZH: 这是一个小震荡区间
09:14 - 09:17
EN: Trading Ranges always have both a Double Top and a Double Bottom.
ZH: 震荡区间中，总是既有双顶也有双底
Slide 004
Time: 09:20
Bilingual Transcript
09:24 - 09:27
EN: When a pullback is small, I use the term “flag”
ZH: 当回调的幅度很小时，我使用“旗形”这个词
09:28 - 09:32
EN: because it signifies trend resumption is more likely than trend reversal.
ZH: 因为它表示趋势更有可能恢复，而不是反转
09:32 - 09:36
EN: I talk about this more in the video on “Pullbacks and Bar Counting”.
ZH: 在《回调和数K线》里，（09A~C3节课） 已经详细讲过这一点
09:42 - 09:45
EN: A bear flag is a small bull trend or a Trading Range,
ZH: 熊旗就是一个小的上涨趋势，或震荡区间
09:45 - 09:48
EN: and like any bull trend, it can end with a Double Top.
ZH: 就像任何上涨趋势一样，它可能会以双顶的形式结束
09:52 - 09:55
EN: Bear trend, and we have a pullback into a small bull trend.
ZH: 下降趋势，反弹，进入了一个小的上涨趋势
09:55 - 09:57
EN: It ended with a Double Top.
ZH: 反弹以双顶的形式结束
09:58 - 10:01
EN: Bear trend, a pullback into a bigger bull trend,
ZH: 下降趋势，这次的反弹是较大的上涨趋势
10:01 - 10:04
EN: but it also ended with a Double Top here.
ZH: 但仍然在这里以双顶的形式结束
10:04 - 10:08
EN: It tried to end here, but failed, and then there was a smaller Double Top here.
ZH: 尝试在这里就结束，但是继续上涨； 然后在这里结束，这里也有一个更小的双顶
10:09 - 10:12
EN: Bear trends often have Double Top bear flags.
ZH: 下降趋势中，经常会有双顶熊旗 （注：因为每个前期的高点都可能有阻力）
10:12 - 10:15
EN: Bull trends often have Double Bottom bull flags.
ZH: 上涨趋势中，经常会有双底牛旗 （注：因为每个前期的低点都可能有支撑）
10:15 - 10:17
EN: Bull trend, Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 上涨趋势，双底牛旗
10:20 - 10:25
EN: Never lose sight of the goal.
ZH: 很少有完美的旗形，不要因此而忽视这些交易机会
10:22 - 10:25
EN: Flags are never perfect, or rarely perfect.
ZH: 很少有完美的旗形，不要因此而忽视这些交易机会
10:26 - 10:29
EN: What you’re doing is looking to enter at the end of the pullback,
ZH: 你想要做的事情是，在回调结束时买入，
10:29 - 10:32
EN: planning for resumption of the trend.
ZH: 预期趋势会恢复
Slide 005
Time: 10:35
Bilingual Transcript
10:39 - 10:40
EN: A bull flag.
ZH: 牛旗是小的下降趋势
10:40 - 10:44
EN: It’s a small bear trend, and like any bear trend,
ZH: 就像任何下降趋势一样，可能会以双底的形式结束
10:43 - 10:44
EN: it can end with a Double Bottom.
ZH: 就像任何下降趋势一样，可能会以双底的形式结束
10:46 - 10:48
EN: Many examples.
ZH: 有很多案例
10:48 - 10:52
EN: We have an early bull trend, and we have a Micro Double Bottom here.
ZH: 这是上涨趋势的早期，这里有一个小双底
10:52 - 10:53
EN: It became a bull flag.
ZH: 它成为了一个牛旗
10:53 - 10:57
EN: The bull trend continued, tried to reverse down, tried to reverse down.
ZH: 上涨趋势继续，回调、回调
10:57 - 10:59
EN: Another small Double Bottom.
ZH: 又一个小的双底
10:59 - 11:01
EN: Bull trend resumed.
ZH: 上涨趋势恢复
11:01 - 11:03
EN: Then another reversal attempt.
ZH: 空头再次尝试反转
11:03 - 11:08
EN: A 1 bar bear trend, 2 bar bear trend, and we got a Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 一根大阴线下跌，和它形成了双底牛旗
11:09 - 11:12
EN: This was an attempt at a Double Top bear flag.
ZH: 空头尝试在这里形成双顶熊旗（继续下跌）
11:12 - 11:15
EN: Instead, we got a Micro Double Bottom and another Micro Double Bottom.
ZH: 然而跌不下去，形成了小双底，又一个小双底
Slide 006
Time: 11:20
Bilingual Transcript
11:21 - 11:26
EN: In a Double Top bear flag, the bulls are trying to reverse the market.
ZH: 在双顶熊旗中，多头尝试反转上涨
11:26 - 11:29
EN: And they become disappointed and sell out of their longs,
ZH: （但是涨不上去）于是他们变得失望， 并卖出他们的多单
11:29 - 11:30
EN: and the bear trend resumes.
ZH: 然后下降趋势恢复
11:30 - 11:37
EN: The bears are confident that the bull trend reversal will fail,
ZH: 空头确信反弹会失败，所以他们也会卖出
11:35 - 11:37
EN: and they sell as well.
ZH: 空头确信反弹会失败，所以他们也会卖出
11:39 - 11:45
EN: A second top in a Double Top bear flag
ZH: 双顶熊旗中的第2个高点， 经常会比第1个高点高很多、或低很多
11:42 - 11:45
EN: is often a lot higher or lower than the first.
ZH: 双顶熊旗中的第2个高点， 经常会比第1个高点高很多、或低很多
11:45 - 11:47
EN: It’s a Low 2 sell setup.
ZH: 双顶熊旗其实就是低2做空入场点
11:49 - 11:52
EN: Here we have a very small Double Top bear flag, bear trend.
ZH: 这里有一个非常小的双顶熊旗，左边是下降趋势
11:52 - 11:57
EN: Here we have a bigger bear trend and an attempt at a Double Top bear flag,
ZH: 大的下降趋势，尝试在这里形成双顶熊旗，
11:57 - 12:00
EN: and then another attempt at a Double Top bear flag.
ZH: 再次尝试形成双顶熊旗
12:00 - 12:02
EN: This one succeeded.
ZH: 这一次成功了
12:02 - 12:07
EN: This bull channel is so strong, a lot of bears waited for a second entry to sell.
ZH: 这个上涨通道很强， 所以很多空头会等待第2次反转的时候再卖出
12:07 - 12:09
EN: So they’ll sell either below that bull bar,
ZH: 所以他们要么在那个阳线下方卖出，
12:09 - 12:12
EN: the neckline of this small Double Top, they’ll sell here,
ZH: 或者在双顶的颈线下方卖出， （突破卖单挂在）这个低点下方
12:12 - 12:15
EN: or they’ll sell below that bear bar with a stop.
ZH: 或者他们在这根阴线下方挂突破卖单
12:19 - 12:23
EN: In a bull trend, there’s often a Double Bottom bull flag,
ZH: 上涨趋势中，经常会出现双底牛旗
12:23 - 12:26
EN: and it’s two attempts by the bears to reverse the bull trend.
ZH: 空头两次尝试下跌
12:26 - 12:29
EN: They become disappointed and buy back their shorts.
ZH: （但是跌不下去）于是感到失望，并且买入回补
12:29 - 12:33
EN: The bulls are confident that the bears will fail, and they buy as well.
ZH: 多头确信空头会失败，所以他们也在买入
12:36 - 12:40
EN: The bears twice tried to reverse, and they gave up.
ZH: 空头在两次尝试之后，放弃离场了
12:40 - 12:42
EN: They twice tried to reverse, they gave up.
ZH: 两次尝试反转下跌，最终放弃
12:42 - 12:46
EN: They twice tried to reverse here and here, and they gave up.
ZH: 在这里和这里，两次尝试反转，最终放弃
12:47 - 12:50
EN: Here, they tried to reverse here and here and gave up.
ZH: 这里，两次尝试向下突破，失败、放弃
12:50 - 12:53
EN: They tried to sell off here and here and gave up.
ZH: 尝试在这里和这里下跌，放弃
12:53 - 12:59
EN: And this selloff, as strong as it was – it’s a bear trend
ZH: 尽管这一段下跌很强势， 但也可能只是这段上涨的深度回调
12:57 - 12:59
EN: - it’s a pullback from this rally.
ZH: 尽管这一段下跌很强势， 但也可能只是这段上涨的深度回调
12:59 - 13:02
EN: So it’s also a bull flag.
ZH: 所以这也是一个牛旗
13:02 - 13:05
EN: Remember, a bull flag is a bear trend, a small bear trend.
ZH: 牛旗就是一个小的下降趋势
Slide 007
Time: 13:10
Bilingual Transcript
13:11 - 13:15
EN: Every Major Trend Reversal Top is a type of Double Top.
ZH: 每一个大反转的顶部，都存在双顶的结构
13:16 - 13:19
EN: It’s an attempt by the bulls to make the bull trend resume,
ZH: 多头尝试让上涨趋势继续
13:19 - 13:24
EN: yet the bull trend fails around the prior high and reverses a second time.
ZH: 然而涨到前期高点附近，再次失败、再次反转下跌
13:28 - 13:30
EN: Let’s say there was a bull trend to the left here,
ZH: 假设这里左边有一个上涨趋势
13:30 - 13:33
EN: and it rallied and tried to reverse.
ZH: 上涨之后，下跌回调
13:33 - 13:37
EN: It rallied again to a slightly Higher High and reversed again.
ZH: 再次上涨到新的高点，然后再次反转下跌
13:37 - 13:39
EN: Higher High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 高点抬高的大反转
13:42 - 13:45
EN: Every Major Trend Reversal Bottom is a type of Double Bottom.
ZH: 每一个大反转的底部，都存在双底的结构
13:46 - 13:49
EN: The first reversal is a bear flag.
ZH: 第1次上涨（反弹）是熊旗
13:49 - 13:53
EN: The bear trend tries to resume, and it reverses up a second time.
ZH: 尝试让下降趋势恢复，然后第2次反转上涨
13:53 - 13:56
EN: And the second reversal up is a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 第2次反转上涨是大反转
13:59 - 14:00
EN: Bear trend.
ZH: 下降趋势
14:00 - 14:03
EN: The first reversal up, probably minor,
ZH: 第1次反转上涨，很可能只是小反弹
14:03 - 14:06
EN: and it will lead to a resumption of the bear trend.
ZH: 下降趋势会恢复
14:06 - 14:10
EN: If it reverses up a second time, then traders will be thinking
ZH: 如果它第2次反转上涨，那么交易者会思考，
14:10 - 14:13
EN: that the bears are failing twice; maybe the market’s going to reverse.
ZH: 空头已经（在这个价格附近）失败了两次， 也是市场即将反转
14:13 - 14:16
EN: Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 低点抬高的大反转
14:19 - 14:23
EN: Major Trend Reversals, they’re minor Double Tops
ZH: 大反转，在更高的时间周期上，
14:23 - 14:25
EN: and Double Bottoms on higher timeframe charts.
ZH: 就是小的双顶或双底结构
14:27 - 14:32
EN: Likewise, minor reversals can be major on smaller timeframe charts.
ZH: 同理，这个图上的小反转， 在更小的时间周期上，可能就是大反转了
14:33 - 14:37
EN: But on the chart in front of me, this is a Major Trend Reversal,
ZH: 在我面前的这张K线图上，这是一个大反转的机会，
14:37 - 14:40
EN: and it’s a reasonable swing trade.
ZH: 是一笔合理的波段交易
14:41 - 14:46
EN: (You can see more about this in the videos on “Major Trend Reversals”.)
ZH: （在22A~D的4节视频课中，可以学到更多关于大反转的内容）
14:50 - 14:53
EN: I talked a little bit about why Double Tops and Bottoms work.
ZH: 刚才也提到了为什么双顶和双底会造成反转
Slide 008
Time: 14:50
Bilingual Transcript
14:53 - 14:56
EN: I’m going to talk more about that here.
ZH: 接下来我想再展开讲一讲这个话题
Slide 009
Time: 14:57
Bilingual Transcript
14:59 - 15:03
EN: A Double Top – why does it often lead to a reversal down?
ZH: 双顶——为什么它经常导致反转下跌？
15:06 - 15:08
EN: Let’s say there was a rally here.
ZH: 假设左边是一段上涨
15:08 - 15:10
EN: Some bull bought this high.
ZH: 一些多头正好追涨在这个高点
15:11 - 15:14
EN: Every price on every chart, there was a bull and a bear.
ZH: 每张K线图上的每个价格，都有多头和空头在交易
15:14 - 15:18
EN: Somebody bought and somebody else sold, taking the opposite side of the trade.
ZH: 有人买入，有人卖出，互为对手盘
15:19 - 15:23
EN: This bull bought here, thinking the market was going to go higher
ZH: 这个多头在这里买入，押注市场会继续上涨——
15:24 - 15:28
EN: - or he thought that if it reversed down, the reversal would be minor
ZH: 而且他认为，就算反转下跌，可能也只是小回调，
15:28 - 15:30
EN: and then the bull trend would resume
ZH: 然后上涨趋势会恢复，
15:30 - 15:33
EN: and he’d be able to get out around his original price.
ZH: 他可以在初始入场价格附近离场
15:33 - 15:36
EN: He was not expecting a bear trend.
ZH: 他预期不会出现下降趋势
15:36 - 15:40
EN: Again, assume there’s a big bull trend to the left that we do not see.
ZH: 假设左边是一个大的上涨趋势
15:40 - 15:43
EN: He’s buying confident that the first reversal will be minor
ZH: 这个多头买入，是因为他确信，就算下跌， 第1次也只是小回调
15:43 - 15:47
EN: and the worst that he’ll get is a Trading Range
ZH: 最糟糕的情况，也就是变成震荡区间
15:47 - 15:52
EN: and when the market gets up to the top of the range,
ZH: 当价格涨回到区间的上沿时， 他可以不亏，甚至盈利离场（如果逢低加仓的话）
15:49 - 15:52
EN: he’ll be able to exit with a profit.
ZH: 当价格涨回到区间的上沿时， 他可以不亏，甚至盈利离场（如果逢低加仓的话）
15:52 - 15:59
EN: If he bought here, he was confident that the worst the bears
ZH: 如果他在这里买入，他确信空头最多就是把市场变成震荡区间
15:56 - 15:59
EN: would be able to do is create a Trading Range.
ZH: 如果他在这里买入，他确信空头最多就是把市场变成震荡区间
15:59 - 16:03
EN: So if he buys here, he’s confident that he’ll be able to get out breakeven,
ZH: 所以就算正好买在高位，他知道价格还会回到区间上沿，
16:04 - 16:08
EN: because this would probably be near the top of the range.
ZH: 所以他至少可以打平离场
16:08 - 16:13
EN: He’s confident the first reversal would be either
ZH: 他确信第1次下跌，要么是震荡区间中的一段下跌，要么是牛旗
16:10 - 16:13
EN: a bear leg in a Trading Range or a bull flag.
ZH: 他确信第1次下跌，要么是震荡区间中的一段下跌，要么是牛旗
16:13 - 16:15
EN: So he buys here, gets out breakeven here.
ZH: 所以他在这里买入，在这里打平离场
16:15 - 16:17
EN: Some bulls will buy more above this bar,
ZH: 一些多头会在这根K线的上方加仓买入更多
16:17 - 16:20
EN: and they’ll make a profit on that second entry.
ZH: 那么加仓的部分就可以赚到钱
16:21 - 16:26
EN: Once the bulls see a reasonably strong selloff, they start wondering
ZH: 一些多头看到抛售相当的强势，于是开始怀疑：
16:26 - 16:32
EN: if the bull trend has ended and has evolved
ZH: 上涨趋势是否即将结束，并且会变成震荡区间，甚至下降趋势
16:29 - 16:32
EN: into a Trading Range or even a bear trend.
ZH: 上涨趋势是否即将结束，并且会变成震荡区间，甚至下降趋势
16:32 - 16:37
EN: Because of that, they’ll often look
ZH: 出于这种考虑，他们经常会在前期的高点附近卖出多单
16:34 - 16:37
EN: to sell out of their longs around the prior high.
ZH: 出于这种考虑，他们经常会在前期的高点附近卖出多单
16:37 - 16:43
EN: If they sell enough, and if bears are confident that they can reverse the market,
ZH: 如果有足够多的多头在卖出止盈， 并且空头自信可以反转趋势的话，
16:43 - 16:48
EN: they’ll sell strongly as well, and they can get a reversal 40% of the time.
ZH: 空头就会大量卖出做空，40%的时候他们可以制造大反转
16:56 - 17:02
EN: Some bulls are confident that, at best,
ZH: 一些多头确信，最差最差的结果， 也就是变成震荡区间，而不是直接反转成下降趋势
16:59 - 17:02
EN: the bears get a Trading Range and not a bear trend,
ZH: 一些多头确信，最差最差的结果， 也就是变成震荡区间，而不是直接反转成下降趋势
17:02 - 17:06
EN: so they’ll buy a reversal up expecting a Trading Range to come back up here,
ZH: 所以他们会在反转上涨时买入，预期价格会涨回到区间的上沿
17:06 - 17:08
EN: and possibly the bull trend will resume.
ZH: 甚至可以让趋势继续创新高
17:10 - 17:14
EN: However, they’ll be sufficiently disappointed by this selloff,
ZH: 然而，他们很可能会对这里的抛售感到非常失望
17:14 - 17:17
EN: that they’ll either try to get out of all their position here,
ZH: 所以他们会在这里卖掉所有的仓位，
17:17 - 17:19
EN: or at least part of their position here.
ZH: 或者至少卖掉一部分
17:19 - 17:22
EN: So bulls will sell around the prior high.
ZH: 所以多头会在前期的高点附近卖出
17:28 - 17:31
EN: Once it gets up there and reverses, reverses, reverses,
ZH: 当价格涨到前期高点附近，然后下跌、下跌、下跌
17:31 - 17:35
EN: traders are starting to think that this could be a Major Trend Reversal down.
ZH: 交易者开始考虑大反转的可能性
17:39 - 17:44
EN: If enough bulls sell and enough bears sell, instead of a Trading Range,
ZH: 如果有足够多的多头和空头在这里卖出， 那么就不是震荡区间那么简单了
17:44 - 17:47
EN: the market could form a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 可能会发生大的反转下跌
17:48 - 17:50
EN: Again, it’s reversing around the prior high.
ZH: 市场在前期高点附近反转
17:50 - 17:57
EN: This is a slightly Higher High, but it’s a Double Top Major Trend Reversal,
ZH: 高点略微抬高的双顶大反转
17:55 - 17:57
EN: slightly Higher High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 高点略微抬高的双顶大反转
Slide 010
Time: 18:00
Bilingual Transcript
18:04 - 18:08
EN: We have a bear trend, and bears are selling all the way down.
ZH: 下降趋势，空头一路抛售、卖出
18:08 - 18:11
EN: There has to be a bull taking the opposite side of the trade.
ZH: 必须要有对手盘，交易才能成交
18:11 - 18:13
EN: Bulls are buying as well.
ZH: 所以一定有多头在买入
18:13 - 18:19
EN: But some bears sold at the very bottom of this bear trend,
ZH: 然而，一些空头正好卖在下降趋势的最低点， 他们预期价格还会下跌
18:17 - 18:19
EN: expecting lower prices.
ZH: 然而，一些空头正好卖在下降趋势的最低点， 他们预期价格还会下跌
18:19 - 18:22
EN: His belief was it’s a strong enough bear trend,
ZH: 空头相信这个下降趋势足够强
18:22 - 18:28
EN: the first reversal up will be minor, which means a Trading Range or a bear flag.
ZH: 第1次上涨只是小反弹，会变成震荡区间或熊旗
18:28 - 18:31
EN: He expects the first reversal up to fail and come back down
ZH: 他预期第1次上涨会失败，价格会重新跌回到
18:31 - 18:38
EN: to around his original entry price, and he’ll be able to get out
ZH: 他的初始卖出价格，让他打平、甚至小赚离场
18:35 - 18:38
EN: with either a small loss or possibly even a profit.
ZH: 他的初始卖出价格，让他打平、甚至小赚离场
18:41 - 18:44
EN: When the bears see 8 or 9 consecutive bull bars like this,
ZH: 当空头看到连续8~9根阳线时
18:44 - 18:48
EN: they’re beginning to think that the bear trend has probably ended
ZH: 他们开始想，下降趋势可能已经结束
18:48 - 18:56
EN: and the market has now evolved into a Trading Range – big down,
ZH: 并且市场已经进入震荡区间——大跌、大涨、造成大的困惑， 这是震荡区间的特征
18:52 - 18:56
EN: big up, big confusion, probably a Trading Range.
ZH: 并且市场已经进入震荡区间——大跌、大涨、造成大的困惑， 这是震荡区间的特征
18:56 - 19:00
EN: Once it’s in a Trading Range, it then could either resume down or reverse up.
ZH: 震荡之后，市场可能继续下跌，也肯能反转上涨
19:06 - 19:10
EN: Because the bears believe the first reversal up will be a bear flag
ZH: 因为空头认为第1次反转的尝试会变成牛旗，
19:10 - 19:14
EN: or a bull leg in a Trading Range, they’ll sell below a bear bar,
ZH: 或者变成震荡区间中的上涨波段， 所以他们会在阴线下方1个tick卖出做空
19:14 - 19:17
EN: like below that bear bar, below this bear bar, below that bear bar.
ZH: 比如在那根阴线，这根阴线，还有那根阴线下方
19:18 - 19:23
EN: I personally do not take the first reversal down after 8 consecutive bull bars.
ZH: 在连续8根阳线后，我不会在第1个做空信号K入场
19:23 - 19:27
EN: But I would start thinking about selling below a small Double Top here
ZH: 但我会考虑在这个小双顶的下方卖出
19:27 - 19:33
EN: or a bigger Double Top here, expecting that either the bear trend would resume or,
ZH: 或者在这个大的双顶做空，预期下降趋势会继续
19:33 - 19:37
EN: after a bull leg in a Trading Range, we would get a bear leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 或者这是震荡区间中的上涨，还会有下跌波段，跌回下沿
19:37 - 19:41
EN: In either case, I expect the market to come down and test around this low.
ZH: 不论是哪种情况，我都预期时常会下跌测试这个低点附近
19:45 - 19:48
EN: The bears who did sell here – let’s say a bear sold here
ZH: 那些在这里卖出的空头——比如说一个空头在这里卖出做空
19:48 - 19:59
EN: and he sold more anywhere up here – he’s hoping the market comes down
ZH: 然后他在上面的某个地方加仓卖出更多—— 他希望市场下跌到前期低点附近， 让他的初始仓位打平离场，加仓的部分赚钱
19:53 - 19:59
EN: to his prior low so he could get out breakeven on this short
ZH: 他希望市场下跌到前期低点附近， 让他的初始仓位打平离场，加仓的部分赚钱
19:57 - 19:59
EN: and with a profit on these shorts.
ZH: 他希望市场下跌到前期低点附近， 让他的初始仓位打平离场，加仓的部分赚钱
19:59 - 20:02
EN: He sees the strong breakout and he’s hopeful, but it reverses up,
ZH: 空头看到大阴线下跌，感到充满希望，
20:02 - 20:05
EN: it reverses up, and it’s reversing up a third time.
ZH: 然而价格上涨，上涨，第3次上涨
20:05 - 20:08
EN: A lot of the bears will give up, and that’s what took place here
ZH: 于是很多空头放弃离场，这就是这里所发生的情况
20:08 - 20:10
EN: - the bears giving up and the bulls buying.
ZH: 空头放弃，多头买入
20:11 - 20:18
EN: The bears who sold here and sold more here, they got a small profit here,
ZH: 那些在这里卖出并在这里加仓卖出更多的空头， 加仓的部分小赚，初始仓位小亏
20:15 - 20:18
EN: and they have a small loss here.
ZH: 那些在这里卖出并在这里加仓卖出更多的空头， 加仓的部分小赚，初始仓位小亏
20:20 - 20:24
EN: The bears are now wondering, with all of these failed selloff attempts,
ZH: 现在他们在想，多次下跌的尝试都失败了，
20:25 - 20:31
EN: is this now not just a Trading Range, but a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal?
ZH: 现在仅仅是一个震荡区间吗？ 或者说，有可能是低点抬高的大反转?
20:31 - 20:33
EN: And the bears are giving up right here.
ZH: 所以空头会在这里放弃
20:35 - 20:38
EN: Bears and bulls buying, it creates a reversal.
ZH: 空头和多头都在买入，这就造成了反转
20:38 - 20:40
EN: It could simply be a Trading Range.
ZH: 当然，这也有可能只是一个震荡区间
20:40 - 20:41
EN: Here, it was a swing up.
ZH: 波段上涨
20:41 - 20:46
EN: So this ended up as a successful Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 最终制造了成功的大反转
20:46 - 20:47
EN: It’s a type of Double Bottom.
ZH: 这是一个双底
20:47 - 20:52
EN: The market sold off, found buyers at this price, it sold off again,
ZH: 市场下跌，在这个价格被买起来，再次下跌，
20:52 - 20:56
EN: found buyers around that price a second time, and the bears gave up.
ZH: 又在这个区域被买起来，于是空头放弃
Slide 011
Time: 21:00
Bilingual Transcript
21:03 - 21:12
EN: Any time there’s a trend reversal and it does not look particularly strong,
ZH: 如果反转的尝试不够强，K线的数量也不够多， 那很可能只是小反转，不是大反转
21:07 - 21:12
EN: not enough bars, it’s probably a minor reversal and not a major reversal.
ZH: 如果反转的尝试不够强，K线的数量也不够多， 那很可能只是小反转，不是大反转
21:13 - 21:18
EN: However, minor reversals can often lead to big moves,
ZH: 然而小反转也可以有足够的幅度，
21:18 - 21:22
EN: at least big enough for a scalp and often big enough for a swing trade.
ZH: 至少可以做剥头皮交易，甚至足够做波段交易 （注：比如有些小反转是可以达到两倍盈亏比的）
21:22 - 21:25
EN: Sometimes a minor reversal becomes a major reversal.
ZH: 有时小反转会变成大反转
21:28 - 21:32
EN: When there’s a minor reversal, like here or even here,
ZH: 小反转之后，比如这里，甚至这里
21:32 - 21:35
EN: it’s usually followed by an attempt at trend resumption.
ZH: 通常会尝试恢复原来的趋势
21:37 - 21:43
EN: A minor reversal therefore is usually a leg in a Trading Range or in a flag.
ZH: 所以小反转通常只是震荡区间或旗形中的一个波段
21:48 - 21:52
EN: Minor reversal, minor reversal, minor reversal, Trading Range.
ZH: 小反转，小反转，小反转，震荡区间
21:52 - 21:53
EN: A minor reversal up.
ZH: 小的上涨
21:53 - 21:55
EN: It became a bull flag that failed.
ZH: 它变成了一个失败的牛旗
21:57 - 22:01
EN: A minor reversal down, resumed up, reversed down again.
ZH: 下跌，反弹，再次下跌
22:01 - 22:04
EN: This is a minor reversal in this bear trend.
ZH: 这是下降趋势中的小反弹
22:04 - 22:05
EN: It became a bear flag.
ZH: 它变成了熊旗
22:05 - 22:07
EN: A minor reversal, bull flag.
ZH: （这根小阴线）小反转，牛旗
22:08 - 22:13
EN: Probably a minor reversal when the channel is this tight; it became a bull flag.
ZH: （这根大阴线）因为上涨通道非常窄， 所以仍然可能只是小反转；变成了牛旗
22:14 - 22:19
EN: A minor reversal up; it became a bear flag, but it did not fall very far.
ZH: 小反弹，熊旗，但没有下跌多少
22:21 - 22:22
EN: Up and down, minor reversal.
ZH: 上涨，下跌，小反转
22:22 - 22:24
EN: This is even a minor reversal.
ZH: 甚至这段下跌，可能也只是小反转
22:24 - 22:28
EN: A big bull trend, maybe a 50% pullback, not quite.
ZH: 左边是大上涨趋势，还不到50%的回调幅度
22:29 - 22:31
EN: First reversal down in a Tight Bull Channel,
ZH: 窄上涨通道的第1次反转下跌，
22:31 - 22:35
EN: probably a minor reversal and a bull flag or a Trading Range.
ZH: 可能只是小反转——牛旗，或震荡区间
22:35 - 22:36
EN: It’s both.
ZH: 两者都是
22:36 - 22:37
EN: It’s a Trading Range.
ZH: 这是一个震荡区间
22:37 - 22:41
EN: We don’t yet know if the bull trend will resume up or if the bears
ZH: 还不知道到底谁会获胜——趋势继续上涨？
22:41 - 22:44
EN: will get a Lower High Major Trend Reversal and a reversal down.
ZH: 还是空头可以制造高点降低的大反转下跌？
22:45 - 22:51
EN: Whenever I see a minor reversal, I assume a flag or a Trading Range.
ZH: 每当我看到小反转，我就会假设它是旗形或震荡区间
22:52 - 22:54
EN: The odds of a Major Trend Reversal are small.
ZH: 直接大反转的概率很小
Slide 012
Time: 23:00
Bilingual Transcript
23:01 - 23:04
EN: I use the term “Micro Double Top” or “Micro Double Bottom”
ZH: 我用“小双顶”和“小双底”这两个词，
23:05 - 23:10
EN: for a Double Top or a Double Bottom that has only 2, 3, 4, 5 bars on it.
ZH: 来描述只有2~5根K线组成的双顶和双底
23:10 - 23:18
EN: On a smaller timeframe chart, it could have 10 or 20 bars
ZH: 在较小时间周期的K线图上，它可能有10或20根K线， 看上去就是标准的双顶或双底；
23:14 - 23:28
EN: and be a regular Double Top or a Double Bottom, but on this chart,
ZH: 在较小时间周期的K线图上，它可能有10或20根K线， 看上去就是标准的双顶或双底； 但在这个K线图上，如果我看到一个5根或更少K线组成的的双顶或双底，我就称之为“小双顶”或“小双顶”
23:18 - 23:28
EN: if I see a Double Top or a Double Bottom that is 5 bars or less,
ZH: 但在这个K线图上，如果我看到一个5根或更少K线组成的的双顶或双底，我就称之为“小双顶”或“小双顶”
23:22 - 23:28
EN: 4 bars or less, I call it a Micro Double Top or a small Double Top.
ZH: 但在这个K线图上，如果我看到一个5根或更少K线组成的的双顶或双底，我就称之为“小双顶”或“小双顶”
23:33 - 23:37
EN: Micro Double Top, small probability of a big reversal,
ZH: 小双顶，发生大反转的概率较低
23:38 - 23:44
EN: but it’s usually important confirmation if it’s also part of a bigger Double Top.
ZH: 但如果它是大双顶的一部分（嵌套在大双顶的第2个高点）， 那就是（对阻力位）的再次确认，很重要
23:44 - 23:46
EN: It increases the probability.
ZH: 增加了大反转的概率
23:47 - 23:52
EN: For example, we have a 3 bar or 4 bar Double Top here.
ZH: 比如这里，是一个3~4根K线组成的双顶
23:52 - 23:54
EN: I call it a Micro Double Top.
ZH: 我称之为小双顶
23:54 - 23:55
EN: Micro Double Bottom here.
ZH: 这里是小双底
23:55 - 23:58
EN: But this Micro Double Bottom is testing this low.
ZH: 这个小双底正在测试前期的这个低点
23:58 - 24:03
EN: This Micro Double Bottom is the end of a second leg in a bigger Double Bottom.
ZH: 这个小双底是第2段下跌的末尾，是大双底的一部分
24:03 - 24:07
EN: This Micro Double Top is the end of a second leg in a bigger Double Top.
ZH: 同样，这个小双顶是第2段上涨的末尾，是大双顶的一部分
24:09 - 24:10
EN: Same here.
ZH: 还有这里
24:10 - 24:13
EN: A Micro Double Top here and here, Micro Double Top here and here,
ZH: 它和它是小双顶，它和它是小双顶（两条红色的线）
24:13 - 24:15
EN: but part of a bigger Double Top.
ZH: 同时，它们是大双顶的一部分
24:15 - 24:19
EN: It’s the second leg of a bigger Double Top.
ZH: 是大双顶的第2段上涨
24:19 - 24:23
EN: It increases the probability that the Double Top reversal will be successful.
ZH: 这就增加了这个大双顶反转成功的概率
24:24 - 24:27
EN: Here, a Micro Double Bottom and then another Micro Double Bottom.
ZH: 这里，小双底，然后又有一个小双底
24:27 - 24:32
EN: It increases the probability
ZH: 增加了双底反转成功、出现波段上涨的概率
24:29 - 24:32
EN: that this Double Bottom will lead to a swing trade up.
ZH: 增加了双底反转成功、出现波段上涨的概率
Slide 013
Time: 24:35
Bilingual Transcript
24:37 - 24:39
EN: I’ve been talking mostly about reversals,
ZH: 我一直在讲大反转，
24:39 - 24:43
EN: and now I want to talk about continuation patterns – pullbacks, flags.
ZH: 现在我也想讲一下趋势的延续结构——回调/反弹，旗形
Slide 014
Time: 24:44
Bilingual Transcript
24:48 - 24:49
EN: We have a bull trend.
ZH: 上涨趋势
24:49 - 24:51
EN: Not particularly strong, but a bull trend.
ZH: 不算特别强，但仍然在上涨
24:51 - 24:54
EN: The bears tried to reverse; the bull trend resumed.
ZH: 空头尝试反转，上涨趋势恢复；
24:55 - 24:57
EN: The bears tried to reverse again.
ZH: 空头再次尝试反转
24:58 - 25:05
EN: Traders will expect that the pattern is not big enough for a Major Trend Reversal,
ZH: 交易者预期这个结构不足以制造大反转，只是小反转，
25:03 - 25:05
EN: and therefore it’s probably a minor reversal,
ZH: 交易者预期这个结构不足以制造大反转，只是小反转，
25:05 - 25:08
EN: and therefore either a Trading Range or a bull flag.
ZH: 所以要么是震荡区间，要么是牛旗
25:08 - 25:12
EN: When it gets near this prior low, they expect the bulls to come back again.
ZH: 当价格跌到前期这个低点附近时，他们预期多头会再次买入
25:12 - 25:14
EN: The bulls bought at this price.
ZH: 多头之前在这个价格买入了
25:14 - 25:16
EN: Maybe they’ll buy at this price again.
ZH: 也许他们会再次在这个价格买入
25:16 - 25:18
EN: They’ll look to buy a reversal up.
ZH: 所以交易者找机会在反转上涨时做多
25:19 - 25:23
EN: A minor reversal down led to a Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 小反转下跌变成了双底牛旗
25:25 - 25:26
EN: A smaller one here.
ZH: 这里有一个更小的（双底牛旗）
25:27 - 25:31
EN: The bears tried to reverse, they tried to reverse again – minor reversals.
ZH: 下跌，再次下跌——小反转
25:31 - 25:34
EN: It led to a Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 变成双底牛期
25:36 - 25:41
EN: I’m calling this a Double Bottom.
ZH: 这里第2个低点略微更低一些，但仍然是双底
25:37 - 25:41
EN: The second low is slightly below that low, but it’s still a Double Bottom.
ZH: 这里第2个低点略微更低一些，但仍然是双底
25:42 - 25:45
EN: It’s a Double Bottom bull flag, a Double Bottom in a bull trend.
ZH: 这是双底牛旗——上涨趋势中回调形成的双底
25:46 - 25:50
EN: Not a big enough pattern for a major reversal, and therefore it’s a pullback.
ZH: 不足以制造大反转，所以更有可能只是回调
25:50 - 25:53
EN: And I call it a Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 所以我称之为双底牛旗
25:56 - 26:01
EN: The bulls buying, if they buy above this bar, they might put their stop here,
ZH: 如果多头在这根K线上方买入， 他们可能会把止损放在这里（选择1：绿线下方）
26:01 - 26:03
EN: or they might put their stop here.
ZH: 或者把止损放在这里（选择2：棕色线下方）
26:04 - 26:09
EN: In either case, if they’re stopped out, unless there’s a major reversal down,
ZH: 不管选择哪一个，如果他们的止损被打到、离场， 除非是大反转下跌，
26:09 - 26:12
EN: they’ll look to buy again on another reversal up.
ZH: 不然多头还会再次寻找买入的机会
26:16 - 26:18
EN: An early bear trend.
ZH: 下降趋势
26:18 - 26:19
EN: Bulls tried to reverse.
ZH: 多头尝试反转
26:19 - 26:22
EN: They tried to reverse here, they tried to reverse here.
ZH: 尝试反转，尝试反转
26:22 - 26:24
EN: We got close to that high.
ZH: 价格接近了前期的这个高点
26:24 - 26:25
EN: To me, it’s a Double Top.
ZH: 我把它看作是双顶
26:25 - 26:27
EN: This is a small Double Top here.
ZH: 这是一个小双顶
26:27 - 26:30
EN: Some bears would sell below here and put a stop a little bit above here,
ZH: 一些空头会在下方卖出做空， 然后把止损放在这里上方一点点（红线上方）
26:30 - 26:32
EN: maybe above the Sell Climax.
ZH: 或者放在这根大阴线（抛售高潮）的上方
26:33 - 26:35
EN: We’re going up again.
ZH: 又有一些反弹
26:35 - 26:39
EN: Again, the bulls are trying to reverse, but the pattern is too small.
ZH: 多头尝试反转，但结构太小了
26:39 - 26:41
EN: We only had 5 small bull bars here.
ZH: 这里只有5根小的阳线（注：连续5根小阳线， 大概率有小的第2段反弹，但仍然不是大反转）
26:41 - 26:45
EN: This is probably not a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 这不是一个低点抬高的大反转机会
26:45 - 26:50
EN: Bear trend, not enough of a bull breakout for this to be a major reversal,
ZH: 下降趋势，多头突破不够强，所以不太可能是大反转
26:50 - 26:56
EN: so it’s probably a minor reversal leading
ZH: 大概率只是小反转，变成震荡区间或熊旗
26:53 - 26:56
EN: to either a Trading Range or a bear flag.
ZH: 大概率只是小反转，变成震荡区间或熊旗
26:56 - 26:59
EN: Traders will look to sell a reversal down, so they’ll sell
ZH: 交易者会寻找做空的机会，
26:59 - 27:03
EN: below the low of that bar, below the low of this bar, below the low of that bar.
ZH: 他们会在那根K线，这根K线，和那根K线的低点下方卖出
27:03 - 27:04
EN: They’ll sell somewhere around here.
ZH: 他们会在这里附近卖出
27:04 - 27:08
EN: Some traders will sell with limit orders just below that high,
ZH: 一些交易者会在那个高点附近挂限价卖单做空
27:08 - 27:12
EN: betting that we’ll get a Double Top and the bear trend will resume.
ZH: 押注会形成双顶熊旗，然后继续下跌
Slide 015
Time: 27:15
Bilingual Transcript
27:16 - 27:21
EN: Computers don’t care if the Double Tops and Double Bottoms are identical.
ZH: 电脑不在乎双顶和双底（的两个点）是否完全一样高
27:21 - 27:23
EN: Usually they’re not identical.
ZH: 通常它们的高度并不相等
27:25 - 27:29
EN: If the second low is a little bit lower, you can call it a Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 如果第2个低点略微更低一些，你可以说它是双底牛旗
27:29 - 27:33
EN: You can call it an ABC bull flag (A, B, C).
ZH: 你可以说它是ABC牛旗——A, B, C （注：ABC，就是两段式回调——1，反弹，2）
27:33 - 27:40
EN: You can call it a High 2 bull flag – tried to reverse back up once
ZH: 你可以说它是高2牛旗——第1次上涨是高1， 现在第2次上涨，高2
27:37 - 27:40
EN: with a High 1 and now a second time, a High 2.
ZH: 你可以说它是高2牛旗——第1次上涨是高1， 现在第2次上涨，高2
27:40 - 27:42
EN: You can call it a failed bear breakout.
ZH: 你可以说它是失败的空头突破
27:43 - 27:47
EN: We have a bull trend, a failed bear breakout, a lot of times it’s a Triangle.
ZH: 上涨趋势，空头向下突破失败，很多时候它是一个三角形
27:47 - 27:52
EN: Three pushes down – one at the bottom of this bull bar, two, three.
ZH: 3次向下的推动——第1推是这根阳线的低点，然后2，3
27:52 - 27:53
EN: Doesn’t matter what you call it.
ZH: 你叫它什么并不重要
27:53 - 27:55
EN: You have to understand the process.
ZH: 重要的是理解这个过程
27:56 - 27:58
EN: Not enough bars for a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: K线数量不足以制造大反转
27:58 - 28:01
EN: Probably going to be a minor reversal or a Trading Range.
ZH: 所以大概率只是回调（牛旗），或震荡区间
28:01 - 28:06
EN: Traders expect the reversal to fail, and they’ll look to buy a reversal up,
ZH: 交易者预期反转下跌会失败，然后在上涨时寻找买入的机会
28:06 - 28:08
EN: especially a second reversal up.
ZH: 尤其是第2次上涨的时候
28:08 - 28:10
EN: The same with here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
28:10 - 28:11
EN: Minor reversal.
ZH: 小回调
28:11 - 28:15
EN: The bears again tried, and the bears will give up above a bull bar.
ZH: 空头再次尝试，还是失败，他们会在阳线的上方离场、放弃
28:15 - 28:19
EN: That’s one of the reasons why High 2 bull flags work so well.
ZH: 这就是为什么高2牛旗这么可靠的原因之一
28:20 - 28:24
EN: The bears hold after the first reversal down, but if it reverses up twice,
ZH: 空头在第1次下跌失败之后还能坚持，但如果失败两次，
28:24 - 28:28
EN: if the bull trend resumes twice, if the bears twice fail to reverse,
ZH: 如果上涨趋势第2次尝试恢复
28:28 - 28:31
EN: they give up, especially above a bull bar.
ZH: 那么空头就会放弃，尤其是在阳线的上方
28:31 - 28:35
EN: That’s why a High 2 bull flag in a bull trend is a high probability buy.
ZH: 所以上涨趋势中的高2牛旗是高胜率的交易机会
28:35 - 28:37
EN: The bears give up.
ZH: 空头放弃
28:39 - 28:43
EN: Does not matter if the two tops in a bear flag are identical.
ZH: 熊旗的两个高点是否一样高，并不重要
28:43 - 28:46
EN: You just have to understand what the process is.
ZH: 你只需要理解这个过程的本质
28:47 - 28:48
EN: Here, it’s slightly lower.
ZH: 这里，稍微低一些
28:48 - 28:50
EN: You can call it a Double Top bear flag.
ZH: 你可以说它是双顶熊旗
28:50 - 28:53
EN: You can call it a Lower High Double Top bear flag.
ZH: 你可以说它是高点降低的双顶熊旗
28:53 - 28:57
EN: You can call it an ABC pullback (A, B, C).
ZH: 你可以说它是ABC反弹——A, B, C
28:57 - 28:58
EN: Sometimes it’s a Triangle.
ZH: 有时它是一个三角形
28:58 - 29:00
EN: Doesn’t matter.
ZH: 这些都不是关键
29:00 - 29:03
EN: The pattern is too small for a major reversal.
ZH: 关键是，这个结构太小了，不足以制造大反转
29:03 - 29:06
EN: This is too small for a Major Trend Reversal up;
ZH: 不足以让趋势反转上涨
29:06 - 29:10
EN: it’s probably going to be a bear flag leading to trend resumption down.
ZH: 它更有可能是一个熊旗，趋势会继续下跌
Slide 016
Time: 29:13
Bilingual Transcript
29:15 - 29:19
EN: Triple Bottoms, you don’t hear the term used all that often.
ZH: 三重底，你可能不常听到这个词
29:19 - 29:23
EN: Some traders want Triple Bottoms or Triple Tops to be perfect,
ZH: 一些交易者希望三重底或三重顶是完美的——
29:23 - 29:25
EN: exactly at the same price three times.
ZH: 三个顶点的高度完全相同
29:25 - 29:27
EN: Very rare.
ZH: 非常少见
29:27 - 29:31
EN: However, you often get what I call a Triple Top like this,
ZH: 然而，你会经常看见这样的三重顶，
29:31 - 29:36
EN: or a Triple Bottom like this – one, two, three – where it’s not quite perfect,
ZH: 或这样的三重底——1，2，3——它并不完美
29:36 - 29:38
EN: but it’s still three attempts in one direction.
ZH: 但仍然是同一方向上的3次尝试
29:43 - 29:45
EN: We tried to reverse up, tried to reverse up,
ZH: 尝试反转上涨，反转上涨
29:45 - 29:48
EN: tried to reverse up a third time, even a fourth time.
ZH: 第3次尝试反转上涨，甚至第4次
29:48 - 29:50
EN: If you want you can call this a Triple Bottom.
ZH: 你可以说它是三重底
29:50 - 29:52
EN: You can simply call it a Trading Range.
ZH: 你也可以直接把它看作震荡区间
29:52 - 29:56
EN: You can call it a Double Bottom Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 你可以说它是低点抬高的双底大反转
29:56 - 29:59
EN: Sometimes when you get a Tight Trading Range late in a trend
ZH: 有时当你在趋势后期看到一个窄震荡区间时
29:59 - 30:02
EN: - here, a bear trend – and you get a Double Bottom,
ZH: ——下降趋势，双底，
30:02 - 30:04
EN: even though it’s only a Tight Trading Range,
ZH: 尽管这只是一个窄震荡区间
30:04 - 30:07
EN: it can be enough to lead to a major reversal.
ZH: 有时也足以制造大的反转（前提：趋势后期）
30:07 - 30:11
EN: That Double Bottom forms a Triple Bottom with the bottom of the bear trend.
ZH: 那个双底与下降趋势的最低点形成了三重底
30:15 - 30:17
EN: The market tried to go down, reversed up.
ZH: 尝试下跌，反转上涨
30:17 - 30:18
EN: Tried to go down, reversed up.
ZH: 尝试下跌，反转上涨
30:18 - 30:19
EN: Tried to go down, reversed up.
ZH: 尝试下跌，反转上涨
30:19 - 30:20
EN: Three times.
ZH: 3次
30:20 - 30:23
EN: Tried to go down a fourth time, reversed up.
ZH: 第4次尝试下跌，反转上涨
30:23 - 30:26
EN: If the market keeps trying to do something and fails,
ZH: 如果市场不断尝试做某事却失败，
30:26 - 30:28
EN: it usually tries to do the opposite.
ZH: 它通常会尝试做相反的事情
30:30 - 30:33
EN: Again, different computers have different algorithms.
ZH: 不同的电脑有不同的算法
30:33 - 30:36
EN: They’ll apply different names to the pattern.
ZH: 不同的交易员也有不同的用词习惯
30:36 - 30:40
EN: Here we had four attempts by the bears to resume the bear trend.
ZH: 这里空头4次尝试让趋势继续下跌
30:41 - 30:44
EN: It’s clear the market is struggling to go lower.
ZH: 但很显然怎么都跌不下去了
30:45 - 30:47
EN: It’s probably gone too far down,
ZH: 很可能市场跌过头了
30:47 - 30:50
EN: so it’s going to start probing in the opposite direction.
ZH: 所以它将开始朝着相反的方向探索（公平价格）
30:53 - 30:56
EN: Some traders will look at this as a Wedge bottom, three pushes down
ZH: 一些交易者会把这看作是楔形底，3次向下推动
30:56 - 31:00
EN: - one, pullback, two, pullback, three.
ZH: 1，反弹，2，反弹，3
31:00 - 31:02
EN: Then we had a Micro Double Bottom,
ZH: 然后有一个小双底
31:02 - 31:05
EN: and then we had a Double Bottom Higher Low Major Trend Reversal,
ZH: 然后是低点抬高的大反转
31:05 - 31:10
EN: and then we had a breakout and then a pullback
ZH: 多头突破了这个双底，然后回调
31:07 - 31:10
EN: from this Double Bottom Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 多头突破了这个双底，然后回调
31:10 - 31:13
EN: In this particular case, that’s how I would read this.
ZH: 就这个案例而言，我会这样去解读
31:13 - 31:16
EN: I would see it as a Wedge Bottom, weak reversal up,
ZH: 我会把它看作一个楔形底，弱反弹
31:16 - 31:19
EN: a Tight Trading Range with a Double Bottom in it.
ZH: 进入窄震荡区间，其中有一个双底
31:19 - 31:23
EN: I would call that a Double Bottom Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 我会说它是低点抬高的大反转
31:23 - 31:26
EN: This is the breakout from it, and this is the pullback.
ZH: 这是突破，这是突破后的回调
31:27 - 31:30
EN: If you want, you can also call it a small Expanding Triangle
ZH: 当然，你也可以说它是小的扩张三角形
31:30 - 31:34
EN: - up, down, more up, more down, up, and then down again.
ZH: 上涨，下跌；上涨，下跌；上涨，下跌
Slide 017
Time: 31:40
Bilingual Transcript
31:43 - 31:45
EN: A Trading Range with three pushes up.
ZH: 一个存在3次推动的震荡区间
31:45 - 31:48
EN: It doesn’t matter if the three pushes are up or down;
ZH: 这3次推动是向上还是向下并不重要，
31:48 - 31:52
EN: whenever I see a Trading Range and I see three pushes, I call it a Triangle.
ZH: 当我看到震荡区间有3次推动的时候， 我就把它当作三角形
31:52 - 31:57
EN: If you want, you could call this the first push down, so it’d be one, two, three.
ZH: 你可以说这是第1次向下推动，所以是1，2，3
31:58 - 32:00
EN: I would personally look at it this way.
ZH: 我会这样看
32:00 - 32:01
EN: Three pushes up.
ZH: 3次向上的推动
32:01 - 32:04
EN: The market is trying to go up repeatedly and failing.
ZH: 市场反复尝试上涨但失败
32:04 - 32:06
EN: Maybe it’ll probe in the other direction.
ZH: 也许它会开始想着相反的方向探索
32:08 - 32:12
EN: Another way to do it – we reversed down, reversed down, reversed down.
ZH: 也可以这样看——下跌，下跌，下跌
32:12 - 32:13
EN: A Triangle here.
ZH: 这里是一个三角形
32:13 - 32:15
EN: We have another reversal down.
ZH: 又一次反转下跌
32:15 - 32:18
EN: You can redraw it and call it a Triangle here.
ZH: 你可以重新画线，画新的三角形
32:18 - 32:22
EN: One, two, three or one, two, three.
ZH: 1，2，3；或者1，2，3
32:22 - 32:27
EN: We have three pushes down, three reversals up, one, two, three.
ZH: 有3次向下推动，3次反转上涨——1，2，3
32:27 - 32:29
EN: You can call it a Triangle there.
ZH: 也可以这样画三角形
32:29 - 32:31
EN: We’re trying to reverse up here, fourth reversal up.
ZH: 这里是第4次尝试反转上涨
32:31 - 32:35
EN: Doesn’t matter how you describe it; you have to understand the process.
ZH: 你怎么描述它并不重要；重要的是理解这个过程
32:36 - 32:39
EN: The market is repeatedly trying to reverse.
ZH: 市场一直在来回反转
32:39 - 32:42
EN: All Triangles contain Double Tops and Double Bottoms.
ZH: 所有的三角形都同时包含双顶和双底 （注：因为三角形就是一个小的震荡区间）
32:43 - 32:46
EN: We have a Double Top and we have a second Double Top,
ZH: 这里有一个双顶，两个双顶，
32:46 - 32:48
EN: and we have a Double Bottom.
ZH: 下面还有一个双底
32:48 - 32:50
EN: The market’s in breakout mode.
ZH: 市场处于突破模式
32:50 - 32:56
EN: 50% chance the market will go up, 50% chance the bear trend will resume down.
ZH: 50%的概率反转上涨，50%的概率恢复下跌
32:58 - 33:03
EN: We have consecutive Double Tops here – Double Top and then another Double Top.
ZH: 这里有连续的双顶——双顶，然后又一个双顶
33:03 - 33:04
EN: Consecutive Double Bottoms here.
ZH: 这里有连续的双底
33:04 - 33:08
EN: Double Bottom and an attempt at a Double Bottom here,
ZH: 双底，再次尝试形成双底——
33:08 - 33:10
EN: even though we never really reversed up.
ZH: 尽管反转上涨并不明显
33:13 - 33:17
EN: Double Bottom, and this Double Bottom
ZH: 双底，而且这个双底的第一次下跌之中还有小双底
33:15 - 33:17
EN: has a Micro Double Bottom for the first push down.
ZH: 双底，而且这个双底的第一次下跌之中还有小双底
33:20 - 33:23
EN: Big bear bar, a second consecutive bear bar.
ZH: 大阴线，连续的阴线跟随
33:23 - 33:26
EN: The bulls are giving up, and we’re probably going
ZH: 多头正在放弃
33:26 - 33:27
EN: to get at least one more leg down.
ZH: 至少还有一段下跌
33:27 - 33:30
EN: First leg, pullback, second leg.
ZH: 1，反弹，2
33:35 - 33:40
EN: Strong enough breakout, bulls and bears both agree this price is too high.
ZH: 空头突破足够强势，多空双方都认为目前的价格抬高了
33:40 - 33:41
EN: It has to go lower.
ZH: 必须下跌
33:43 - 33:44
EN: Second leg down likely.
ZH: 所以很可能有第2段下跌
33:45 - 33:51
EN: The bulls who did not sell out here now decide the market is going down.
ZH: 在这里没有卖出离场的多头意识到还会继续下跌
33:51 - 33:53
EN: They look for any rally to sell.
ZH: 所以一旦有反弹，他们就会卖出
33:53 - 33:56
EN: So the bulls will sell, creating the second leg down.
ZH: 多头在反弹时卖出，是第2段下跌的形成原因之一
33:56 - 33:59
EN: The bears who did not sell initially are looking
ZH: 那些一开始没有入场的空头，
33:59 - 34:01
EN: for any kind of a pullback to sell.
ZH: 也在等待反弹做空的机会
34:01 - 34:03
EN: They also expect a second leg down.
ZH: 押注会有第2段下跌
34:04 - 34:06
EN: On the rally, bulls and bears are going to sell.
ZH: 所以在反弹的时候，多头和空头都会卖出
34:06 - 34:09
EN: Bulls will sell out of their longs.
ZH: 多头卖出，止损离场
34:09 - 34:11
EN: They bought up here, they sell out here with a loss.
ZH: 们在这里买入，在这里卖出止损
34:11 - 34:14
EN: And the bears will sell as well.
ZH: 空头也在卖出
34:14 - 34:16
EN: Both expect that the price is too high
ZH: 多空双方都认为现在的价格抬高
34:16 - 34:18
EN: and there’ll be at least a second leg down.
ZH: 至少还会有一段下跌
34:21 - 34:24
EN: Three pushes up, one, two, three.
ZH: 3次向上推动——1，2，3
34:24 - 34:27
EN: A smaller Triangle and a bear breakout.
ZH: 较小的三角形，空头突破
34:28 - 34:31
EN: Strong enough breakout for at least a small second leg down.
ZH: 突破足够强势，至少会有小的第2段下跌
34:31 - 34:34
EN: Here, the second leg down was very small.
ZH: 这里，第2段下跌非常小
34:34 - 34:37
EN: Not profitable for bears who sold here.
ZH: 在这里卖出的空头赚不到钱
Slide 018
Time: 34:40
Bilingual Transcript
34:44 - 34:47
EN: Different computers see things differently.
ZH: 不同的电脑程序有不同的算法
Slide 019
Time: 34:45
Bilingual Transcript
34:47 - 34:50
EN: Some computers will call this an Expanding Triangle Bottom.
ZH: 一些电脑会把它看作是扩张三角底部
34:50 - 34:53
EN: Even though it’s rising, it’s still an Expanding Triangle.
ZH: 尽管是向上的（高低点都在抬高）， 但它仍然是扩张三角形（通道线越来越远，而不是收敛）
34:53 - 35:00
EN: First push, second push, third push – or smaller version,
ZH: 第1推，第2推，第3推； 或者这个更小的扩张三角形——1，2，3
34:57 - 35:00
EN: first push, second push, third push.
ZH: 或者这个更小的扩张三角形——1，2，3
35:00 - 35:03
EN: Again, it does not matter how you call it.
ZH: 还是那句话，你叫它什么并不重要
35:04 - 35:05
EN: Consecutive Double Bottoms.
ZH: 连续的双底
35:05 - 35:08
EN: We have a Double Bottom, another Double Bottom, another Double Bottom,
ZH: 双底，双底，双底
35:08 - 35:12
EN: and each second bottom is slightly higher.
ZH: 每个双底的第2个低点都更高
35:12 - 35:14
EN: So we’re getting Higher Lows.
ZH: 所以低点在不断抬高
35:14 - 35:16
EN: Possibly an early bull trend.
ZH: 可能是上涨趋势的初期
35:18 - 35:22
EN: Triple Bottom, one, two, three or one, two, three.
ZH: 三重底——1，2，3；或者1，2，3
35:25 - 35:27
EN: The bulls gave up.
ZH: 空头放弃了
35:27 - 35:31
EN: The bears tried again to reverse, but a Higher Low,
ZH: 他们再次尝试下跌，但是低点仍在抬高
35:31 - 35:36
EN: and then the bulls bought very aggressively up and the bears gave up.
ZH: 然后多头非常积极地买入，空头放弃离场
35:38 - 35:41
EN: The market was repeatedly trying to go down and failing.
ZH: 市场多次尝试下跌，但是都失败了
35:42 - 35:46
EN: At some point the bulls and bears both agree the price is too low.
ZH: 在某个时刻，多头和空头都同意现在价格太低
35:46 - 35:47
EN: The market has gone down too far;
ZH: 市场已经跌过头了
35:47 - 35:51
EN: it probably has to go higher to find where the fair price is.
ZH: 必须上涨才能找到公平价格
35:51 - 35:54
EN: And it did so violently here.
ZH: 市场向上暴涨
35:59 - 36:04
EN: Trading Ranges always contain Double Tops and Double Bottoms.
ZH: 震荡区间总是同时包含双顶和双底
Slide 020
Time: 36:00
Bilingual Transcript
36:04 - 36:06
EN: It’s in breakout mode.
ZH: 它处于突破模式
36:06 - 36:11
EN: Will the bulls succeed? Will this Double Bottom lead to a rally?
ZH: 多头会成功吗？这个双底会向上突破吗？
36:11 - 36:14
EN: Will the bears succeed? Will this Double Top lead to a selloff?
ZH: 空头会成功吗？这个双顶会向下跌破吗？
36:16 - 36:21
EN: Some computers believe the rally is more likely; other computers believe
ZH: 一些电脑认为反转上涨的概率更高；
36:21 - 36:23
EN: that trend resumption down is more likely.
ZH: 其他电脑继续下跌的概率更高
36:23 - 36:26
EN: Once you get a Trading Range that has 20 or more bars,
ZH: 一旦震荡区间持续了20根或更多K线，
36:26 - 36:31
EN: the probability of a bull breakout becomes
ZH: 多空双方突破的概率变得差不多
36:29 - 36:31
EN: the same as the probability of a bear breakout.
ZH: 多空双方突破的概率变得差不多
36:31 - 36:32
EN: It’s in BreakOut Mode.
ZH: 市场处于突破模式
36:33 - 36:37
EN: You can see, when we broke below the Double Bottom,
ZH: 可以看到，当双底被跌破时，
36:38 - 36:40
EN: everyone agreed price was going lower.
ZH: 每个人都同意价格要继续下跌
36:40 - 36:43
EN: We have a big breakout bar and a good follow-through bar.
ZH: 大阴线突破，跟随K线也很好
36:47 - 36:49
EN: Bear trend, a Trading Range.
ZH: 下降趋势，震荡区间
36:49 - 36:54
EN: Every Trading Range contains some kind of a Double Bottom
ZH: 每个震荡区间都同时包含双底和双顶的结构
36:52 - 36:54
EN: and some kind of a Double Top.
ZH: 每个震荡区间都同时包含双底和双顶的结构
36:54 - 36:56
EN: We got trend resumption down.
ZH: 最终趋势继续下跌
36:57 - 36:59
EN: The bears overpowered the bulls.
ZH: 空头压倒了多头
36:59 - 37:00
EN: The bulls gave up.
ZH: 多头放弃
37:02 - 37:06
EN: Initially you’re looking for a Measured Move down
ZH: 第1个目标是把双顶的高度往下翻一倍，作为MM目标位
37:04 - 37:06
EN: based upon the height of the Double Top.
ZH: 第1个目标是把双顶的高度往下翻一倍，作为MM目标位
37:06 - 37:11
EN: Double Top, neckline, fell for a Measured Move down, and there was buying.
ZH: 双顶，颈线，翻一倍，在MM附近有买盘
37:11 - 37:13
EN: Bears took partial profits.
ZH: 空头止盈一部分
37:13 - 37:17
EN: Bulls may have scaled in, expecting a test of the breakout point.
ZH: 也有多头会买入，并且逢低加仓， 押注会反弹测试突破点
37:19 - 37:20
EN: Another Trading Range.
ZH: 又进入震荡区间了
37:20 - 37:22
EN: We have a Double Bottom and a Double Top.
ZH: 既有双底，又有双顶
37:22 - 37:23
EN: Breakout mode.
ZH: 突破模式
37:23 - 37:27
EN: Once it lasts about 20 bars or so, BreakOut Mode,
ZH: 一旦震荡持续了大约20根K线，就是突破模式
37:27 - 37:32
EN: the chance of trend reversal up is the same as trend reversal down.
ZH: 反转上涨和继续下跌的概率变得相同
37:33 - 37:36
EN: Again, the bears overpowered the bulls.
ZH: 空头再次压倒了多头
37:36 - 37:39
EN: Maybe two small legs down – one, pullback, two.
ZH: 至少两段下跌——1，反弹，2
37:41 - 37:42
EN: Same process.
ZH: 同样的过程
37:42 - 37:44
EN: A Double Bottom, another Double Bottom.
ZH: 连续的双底，双底
37:45 - 37:48
EN: Double Top or Double Top here and here.
ZH: 同时上面有双顶，或者这里的双顶
37:48 - 37:49
EN: Breakout mode.
ZH: 突破模式
37:49 - 37:52
EN: Here, we got trend resumption down, trend resumption down.
ZH: 之前两次，都是继续下跌，继续下跌
37:53 - 37:56
EN: Instead, now we’re getting trend reversal up.
ZH: 但是这里，趋势反转上涨
37:56 - 37:59
EN: Again, when a pullback grows to 20 or more bars,
ZH: 还是一样，当回调持续20根或更多K线时，
37:59 - 38:03
EN: I start referring to it as a Trading Range, and when I do that,
ZH: 我开始说它是震荡区间，
38:03 - 38:10
EN: I’m doing it because I think the probability
ZH: 因为此时多空双方谁都没有明显的优势了
38:06 - 38:10
EN: is no longer in favor of trend resumption down.
ZH: 因为此时多空双方谁都没有明显的优势了
38:10 - 38:13
EN: Initially this is a bear flag, a pullback in a bear trend.
ZH: 一开始，这是一个熊旗，是下降趋势中的反弹
38:14 - 38:19
EN: At some point you have to decide the bears have lost control and it’s now neutral.
ZH: 但是到了某一时刻，要意识到空头已经失去了对市场的掌控，现在市场是中性的
38:19 - 38:24
EN: Again, a pullback in a bear trend, but if it grows to enough bars,
ZH: 这里也是一样，（一开始是）下降趋势中的反弹， 但如果K线数量不断增加，
38:24 - 38:31
EN: the probability of trend reversal up becomes almost
ZH: 反转上涨的概率几乎变得和继续下跌的概率一样高
38:28 - 38:31
EN: as high as the probability of trend resumption down.
ZH: 反转上涨的概率几乎变得和继续下跌的概率一样高
38:31 - 38:32
EN: And a third Trading Range.
ZH: 第3个震荡区间
38:33 - 38:34
EN: It’s a pullback initially.
ZH: 最初这只是反弹
38:34 - 38:36
EN: It’s a bear flag, maybe still a bear flag.
ZH: 它是熊旗，这里仍然更可能是熊旗
38:36 - 38:39
EN: But at some point, you’ve got to be thinking
ZH: 但是，到了某个时刻，你必须考虑到，
38:39 - 38:41
EN: that instead of a pullback, maybe it’s a Trading Range.
ZH: 这不再是反弹，可能已经是震荡区间了
38:41 - 38:51
EN: And once you do, you have to be thinking that the probability of a reversal up
ZH: 所以反转上涨的概率，和继续下跌的概率，变得几乎相等
38:46 - 38:51
EN: is about the same as the probability of a resumption of the bear trend down.
ZH: 所以反转上涨的概率，和继续下跌的概率，变得几乎相等
Slide 021
Time: 38:55
Bilingual Transcript
38:57 - 39:03
EN: I began by talking about it’s really important to understand that Double Tops
ZH: 这节课我首先讲了大部分双顶和双底都是不完美的
39:03 - 39:07
EN: and Double Bottoms are not perfect, and you have to be very flexible.
ZH: 所以必须要灵活地思考
39:08 - 39:13
EN: I then talked about why Double Tops and Double Bottoms work.
ZH: 然后我讲了为什么双顶和双底会造成反转
39:13 - 39:17
EN: At a Double Top, for example, the market went up.
ZH: 以双顶为例，市场先上涨，然后下跌回调；
39:16 - 39:17
EN: It tried to reverse.
ZH: 以双顶为例，市场先上涨，然后下跌回调；
39:17 - 39:21
EN: The bull trend resumed, and it might reverse a second time.
ZH: 上涨趋势恢复，涨到前期高点附近
39:21 - 39:25
EN: If it reverses a second time, the bulls who bought
ZH: 如果多头认为市场会在这个价格再次反转下跌，
39:25 - 39:29
EN: at the top of the first leg up will panic and they will sell out of their longs.
ZH: 那么之前追涨的多头就会感到恐慌， 并且卖出手中的仓位
39:29 - 39:35
EN: If enough bulls sell out and enough bears begin shorting, you can get a reversal.
ZH: 如果有足够多的多头卖出离场， 并且有足够多的空头卖出做空，就会反转下跌
39:36 - 39:39
EN: If a Double Top or a Double Bottom is small
ZH: 如果一个双顶或双底很小，
39:39 - 39:43
EN: and it’s within a trend, it’s probably a flag, a pullback.
ZH: 而且处于大的趋势内部，那么它可能是旗形，是回调/反弹
39:43 - 39:45
EN: The odds are the trend will resume.
ZH: 趋势恢复的概率更大
39:45 - 39:49
EN: For example, if you’re in a bear trend and you have a rally,
ZH: 以下降趋势为例，如果市场反弹，
39:49 - 39:53
EN: and the rally is small compared to the bear trend, there’s a pullback
ZH: 并且反弹的幅度和下降趋势相比很小，
39:53 - 39:58
EN: in that rally and the bulls try again to resume up and they fail a second time,
ZH: 第1次反弹失败、下跌，然后多头再次尝试反弹，再次失败
39:58 - 40:00
EN: and the pattern is less than 20 bars,
ZH: 而且整个结构小于20根K线，
40:00 - 40:06
EN: chances are it’s a Double Top bear flag and the bear trend will resume.
ZH: 那么它很可能是双顶熊旗，下降趋势会恢复
40:10 - 40:11
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
40:11 - 40:14
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
40:14 - 40:18
EN: This is the first of two videos on Double Tops and Bottoms.
ZH: 双顶和双底的第1节课，就先讲到这里