al-brooks-course
34B - Actual Risk
Raw transcript and slide notes for 34B - Actual Risk.
Overview
- Slides: 19
- Transcript segments: 440
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:09
EN: This is the second of two videos on Actual Risk.
ZH: 这是实际风险的第2节课（共2节）
Slide 001
Time: 00:12
Bilingual Transcript
00:14 - 00:18
EN: Sometimes the market will allow you to use a very tight stop,
ZH: 在一些交易机会中（比如反转），止损是非常小的
00:18 - 00:21
EN: and therefore your risk can be small.
ZH: 所以你的初始风险很小
00:21 - 00:27
EN: Sometimes even if your initial stop is big, your Actual Risk is small as well.
ZH: 有时，即使你的初始止损很大，你的实际风险也可能很小
00:28 - 00:34
EN: When the risk is small, do not use the small risk to calculate a profit target
ZH: 当风险很小的时候，不要用小风险来计算利润目标
00:34 - 00:36
EN: because your profit target will be too small.
ZH: 因为你的目标也变得很小
00:37 - 00:44
EN: However, if the risk is reasonable, then you can use it to find a profit target.
ZH: 然而，如果风险不是很小，那么可以根据它来计算目标位
00:44 - 00:47
EN: Remember, the Trader’s Equation has three variables
ZH: 反复强调，数学期望有3个变量——概率、风险和利润；
00:46 - 00:52
EN: (probability, risk, and reward), and a default for taking profits
ZH: 反复强调，数学期望有3个变量——概率、风险和利润； 如果你的止损距离至少有剥头皮交易的规模，
00:51 - 00:56
EN: is two times your risk, assuming that your risk is at least as big as a scalp.
ZH: 如果你的止损距离至少有剥头皮交易的规模， 那么通常默认利润目标是风险的两倍
Slide 002
Time: 00:58
Bilingual Transcript
01:04 - 01:07
EN: The market had 2 very big bull trend bars, and it pulled back.
ZH: 两根非常大的阳线，然后回调
01:07 - 01:09
EN: We have a small bull inside bar.
ZH: 小的多头孕线
01:09 - 01:11
EN: It’s a High 1 bull flag.
ZH: 这是高1牛旗
01:11 - 01:13
EN: It’s reasonable to buy above the high of the bar.
ZH: 在它的高点上方买入是合理的
01:17 - 01:19
EN: The market immediately went your way.
ZH: 市场立刻按照预期上涨
01:19 - 01:28
EN: It never fell below the low of the entry bar, so your Actual Risk
ZH: 入场K线的低点从未被跌破过， 因此，你的实际风险就只有这一点点距离
01:23 - 01:28
EN: was never any more than just below the low of that entry bar.
ZH: 入场K线的低点从未被跌破过， 因此，你的实际风险就只有这一点点距离
01:28 - 01:35
EN: A very small Actual Risk compared to the size of the bull breakout
ZH: 相比多头突破的高度和之后巨大的涨幅， 实际风险非常小
01:32 - 01:35
EN: and to the size of the bull trend that followed.
ZH: 相比多头突破的高度和之后巨大的涨幅， 实际风险非常小
01:37 - 01:40
EN: Two times Actual Risk is right here.
ZH: 两倍的实际风险就在这里
01:40 - 01:47
EN: Mathematically, it’s always reasonable to take profits at two times Actual Risk.
ZH: 从数学上讲，在两倍的实际风险时止盈是合理的
01:47 - 01:50
EN: That results in a positive Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 因为数学期望为正
01:50 - 01:55
EN: However, that is the absolute minimum to make the Trader’s Equation positive,
ZH: 然而，这只是数学期望的最低要求
01:55 - 01:57
EN: and that is not necessarily the best.
ZH: 并不代表就是最好的选择
02:03 - 02:09
EN: When the Actual Risk is very small, but the probability
ZH: 当实际风险很小，而赚大钱的概率很高的时候
02:07 - 02:14
EN: of a big profit is very big, you should not use the Actual Risk
ZH: 当实际风险很小，而赚大钱的概率很高的时候 你就不应该用实际风险来决定目标位
02:11 - 02:14
EN: to calculate where to take profits.
ZH: 你就不应该用实际风险来决定目标位
02:21 - 02:26
EN: Remember, that is the absolute minimum that makes mathematical sense.
ZH: 要知道，那只是维持合理的最低要求
02:26 - 02:30
EN: However, doing the minimum is not necessarily the best.
ZH: 最低要求往往不是最好的
02:30 - 02:34
EN: For example, if your kid graduates from college with a ‘D’ average,
ZH: 比如，如果你的小孩以全D的成绩从大学毕业
02:34 - 02:38
EN: that might be the minimum that the school requires to get a diploma,
ZH: 可能符合获得毕业证书的最低要求
02:38 - 02:44
EN: but you would not be happy with that because he would have
ZH: 但你不会对此感到高兴，因为这么差的成绩很难找到工作
02:41 - 02:44
EN: a hard time getting a job based upon that minimum.
ZH: 但你不会对此感到高兴，因为这么差的成绩很难找到工作
02:46 - 02:49
EN: In general, when you have a very strong bull breakout like this,
ZH: 通常来说，当你看到这么强势的多头突破时，
02:49 - 02:53
EN: the market’s probably going higher – probably, at a minimum,
ZH: 大概率，市场至少会涨到MM目标位——
02:53 - 02:58
EN: based upon a Measured Move using the open of the first bar
ZH: 从突破的第1根K线，到突破的最后1根K线，往上翻一倍
02:57 - 02:58
EN: to the close of the final bar.
ZH: 从突破的第1根K线，到突破的最后1根K线，往上翻一倍
02:58 - 03:01
EN: 60% chance you’ll go up for a Measured Move,
ZH: 60%的概率会上涨到MM目标位
03:01 - 03:05
EN: which is far greater than two times your Actual Risk.
ZH: 远远大于两倍实际风险
03:06 - 03:15
EN: As long as the market is strongly bullish, I think it’s better
ZH: 只要市场是强势看涨的， 我认为最好用其它类型的阻力来决定止盈目标位
03:10 - 03:15
EN: to use other types of support and resistance to determine where to take profits,
ZH: 只要市场是强势看涨的， 我认为最好用其它类型的阻力来决定止盈目标位
03:15 - 03:19
EN: such as Measured Move targets, trend lines, and prior highs and lows.
ZH: 比如MM，趋势线，或者前期的重要高点或低点
03:20 - 03:27
EN: Two times Actual Risk is resistance, but you can see the market
ZH: 两倍的实际风险也是一种阻力位， 但你可以看到市场完全忽略了它，继续大幅上涨
03:24 - 03:27
EN: is ignoring it and the market went far above it.
ZH: 两倍的实际风险也是一种阻力位， 但你可以看到市场完全忽略了它，继续大幅上涨
Slide 003
Time: 03:30
Bilingual Transcript
03:35 - 03:41
EN: Again, using Actual Risk gives you a mathematical way to take profits,
ZH: 再次强调，数学上，可以用实际风险作为止盈的参考
03:41 - 03:45
EN: but it’s a minimum, and minimum rarely is ever the best choice.
ZH: 但它只是最低目标，而最低目标往往不是最好的选择
03:50 - 03:52
EN: Strong bull breakout.
ZH: 强势的多头突破
03:52 - 03:56
EN: 60% chance you’ll get a Measured Move based upon the height of the breakout
ZH: 有60%的概率涨到MM目标位——把突破的高度翻一倍
03:56 - 04:00
EN: - either the low to the high or the open of this bar to the close of that bar.
ZH: ——无论是从低点到高点，还是从这根K线的开盘价到那根K线的收盘价
04:00 - 04:08
EN: 60% chance you’re going up here, so it does not make sense
ZH: 60%的概率会涨到这里， 所以在两倍实际风险的地方就离场是不合理的
04:05 - 04:08
EN: to exit at two times Actual Risk.
ZH: 60%的概率会涨到这里， 所以在两倍实际风险的地方就离场是不合理的
04:10 - 04:13
EN: When I say 60% chance of going up here if you buy here,
ZH: 在这里买入，有60%的胜率，这句话的意思是：
04:13 - 04:20
EN: that’s if you use a stop based upon the bottom
ZH: 你需要把止损放在最近一个重要的低点下方，也就是在这里
04:16 - 04:20
EN: of the most recent major low, which is here.
ZH: 你需要把止损放在最近一个重要的低点下方，也就是在这里
04:20 - 04:27
EN: If a trader buys above this bar and puts a stop below the bottom
ZH: 如果一个交易者在这根K线上方买入， 然后把止损放在突破的起涨点下方
04:24 - 04:31
EN: of the bull breakout, he has a 60% chance that the market will reach
ZH: 如果一个交易者在这根K线上方买入， 然后把止损放在突破的起涨点下方 60%的概率，市场会先达到目标位，而不是先打到止损
04:28 - 04:31
EN: that target before it hits his stop below.
ZH: 60%的概率，市场会先达到目标位，而不是先打到止损
04:31 - 04:34
EN: That is his initial stop.
ZH: 他的初始止损在这里
04:34 - 04:40
EN: Once the market started to go his way, he would then tighten the stop
ZH: 一旦强势地向上突破，他就可以把止损抬高到最近一次突破地起涨点下方，也就是在这里
04:37 - 04:40
EN: to the bottom of the most recent breakout, here.
ZH: 一旦强势地向上突破，他就可以把止损抬高到最近一次突破地起涨点下方，也就是在这里
Slide 004
Time: 04:45
Bilingual Transcript
04:48 - 04:51
EN: You can see the pullback here, and that tells you
ZH: 可以看到这里有一些回调
04:51 - 04:57
EN: that some traders are taking profits based upon a Measured Move up
ZH: 说明一些交易者根据突破高度的MM目标位止盈
04:55 - 04:57
EN: based upon the height of this bar.
ZH: 说明一些交易者根据突破高度的MM目标位止盈
04:57 - 05:02
EN: When the stop is far away, traders need to control their risk,
ZH: 当止损距离越来越远，交易者需要控制风险 （注：利润回撤的风险）
05:02 - 05:09
EN: and the easiest way to reduce the risk of having a stop
ZH: 最简单的方法就是减少仓位
05:06 - 05:09
EN: that is far away is to reduce the position size.
ZH: 最简单的方法就是减少仓位
05:09 - 05:13
EN: And when traders do that, you get a pause in the trend or a little pullback.
ZH: 这会导致趋势暂停或小幅回调
05:18 - 05:25
EN: Spike, Tight Channel, and every channel eventually evolves
ZH: 急速上涨，窄通道，而所有通道最终都会演变成震荡区间， 就像这里所发生的一样
05:22 - 05:25
EN: into a Trading Range, and that’s what’s taking place here.
ZH: 急速上涨，窄通道，而所有通道最终都会演变成震荡区间， 就像这里所发生的一样
05:25 - 05:29
EN: We’re starting to get doji bars, pullback, more pullback, breakout,
ZH: 开始出现十字星，回调，更多回调，
05:29 - 05:33
EN: not very big tail, not great follow-through, bear bars.
ZH: 突破幅度很小，很多影线，没有好的跟随，阴线越来越多
05:33 - 05:36
EN: It looks like we’re starting to evolve into a Trading Range,
ZH: 看上去正在变成震荡区间
05:36 - 05:39
EN: and when that’s the case, it’s no longer in a strong bull trend.
ZH: 在这种情况下，它不再是强上涨趋势
05:39 - 05:44
EN: You have to trade it differently, and bulls are more willing to take profits,
ZH: 所以必须改变交易的方式，多头现在更愿意止盈
05:44 - 05:46
EN: for example, below a bear reversal bar.
ZH: 比如，在反转阴线的下方离场
05:46 - 05:49
EN: Spike, pullback, second push, pullback, third push.
ZH: 急速，回调；第2推，回调；第3推
05:49 - 05:51
EN: A small Spike and Channel Wedge.
ZH: 这是一个小的急速变通道的楔形
05:53 - 05:55
EN: Since it’s no longer a strong bull trend,
ZH: 由于它不再是强上涨趋势
05:55 - 05:58
EN: traders will no longer trade it like a bull trend.
ZH: 交易者将不再按照强趋势的方法去交易
05:58 - 06:02
EN: They’ll begin to trade it like a Tight Trading Range, which means that they have
ZH: 他们将开始按照窄震荡区间的方法去交易，
06:02 - 06:06
EN: to exit their longs or at least a good part of their longs.
ZH: 也就是说他们必须离场，或者止盈至少一部分仓位
Slide 005
Time: 06:10
Bilingual Transcript
06:13 - 06:15
EN: We have a pretty good bear breakout here.
ZH: 这里有一个相当不错的空头突破
06:15 - 06:19
EN: We had two legs up, one, pullback, two, and a strong bear breakout,
ZH: 两段上涨——1，回调，2——然后是强势的空头突破
06:19 - 06:21
EN: and now we entered a Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 现在市场进入窄震荡区间
06:21 - 06:23
EN: Double Top bear flag.
ZH: 双顶熊旗
06:23 - 06:26
EN: Here’s the first high, second high, and you have a bear bar closing on its low.
ZH: 第1个高点，第2个高点，然后有阴线收在最低
06:26 - 06:30
EN: It’s reasonable to sell below that, looking for at least
ZH: 在它的下方卖出做空是合理的，
06:30 - 06:33
EN: a small second leg down and possibly a bear trend.
ZH: 至少预期有小的第2段下跌，甚至可能是下降趋势
06:35 - 06:38
EN: If you did sell below the low of this bar,
ZH: 如果你确实在这根K线的低点下方开仓做空了
06:38 - 06:41
EN: the market sold off without coming back.
ZH: （在你开仓之后）市场没有任何反弹，就继续下跌了
06:41 - 06:45
EN: It never came back above the high of the entry bar.
ZH: 价格从来没有反弹到入场K线的高点上方
06:45 - 06:50
EN: Therefore, your Actual Risk is no more
ZH: 因此，你的实际风险不高于这根入场K线的最高点
06:47 - 06:50
EN: than just above the high of that entry bar.
ZH: 因此，你的实际风险不高于这根入场K线的最高点
06:50 - 06:53
EN: It may’ve gone to the entry bar high after you entered.
ZH: 可能在你入场之后，价格曾经又回到过这个高点
06:53 - 06:56
EN: You don’t know that, but you do know that it never went
ZH: 静态的复盘看不出这些，
06:56 - 07:01
EN: above the entry bar high, and if you had a stop above that entry bar high,
ZH: 但总之，你知道价格从未高于这个高点，
07:01 - 07:07
EN: as soon as you entered if you put the stop at that line,
ZH: 尽管在你开仓的时候，你并不知道这一点
07:05 - 07:07
EN: you did not know it would be the entry bar high.
ZH: 尽管在你开仓的时候，你并不知道这一点
07:07 - 07:10
EN: But had you entered and put your stop there,
ZH: 假设你把止损放在这条线的位置，
07:10 - 07:12
EN: you would not have been stopped out.
ZH: 你是不会被止损离场的
07:12 - 07:16
EN: In hindsight, that is the tightest stop that you could have used
ZH: 事后看来，那是你可以使用的最窄止损
07:16 - 07:24
EN: to avoid being stopped out, and this little green box is the height
ZH: 这个小的绿色框框就是入场价和止损之间的距离
07:21 - 07:24
EN: of the space between your entry and that stop.
ZH: 这个小的绿色框框就是入场价和止损之间的距离
07:24 - 07:26
EN: That is your Actual Risk.
ZH: 也就是你的实际风险
07:30 - 07:34
EN: It’s always mathematically acceptable to take your profits
ZH: 在两倍实际风险的地方止盈，数学上是可以接受的
07:34 - 07:37
EN: at two times Actual Risk, but when you look to the left
ZH: 但当你看到左边的波动大小时
07:37 - 07:44
EN: at the size of the swings, exiting with that small a profit
ZH: 只赚这么一点点钱就离场，显然不是最好的选择
07:41 - 07:44
EN: is probably not the best choice.
ZH: 只赚这么一点点钱就离场，显然不是最好的选择
07:44 - 07:51
EN: It may be mathematically okay to do that, but there’s probably
ZH: 尽管数学上也许合理，但实际上，这笔交易有更大的潜在利润
07:48 - 07:51
EN: going to be much more profit remaining in the trade.
ZH: 尽管数学上也许合理，但实际上，这笔交易有更大的潜在利润
07:57 - 08:02
EN: Strong enough breakout so that probably a 60% chance of the market falling
ZH: 空头突破足够强势，
08:02 - 08:05
EN: for a Measured Move based upon the height of the breakout
ZH: 60%的概率市场会先下跌到MM目标位
08:05 - 08:07
EN: before it gets above the top of the breakout.
ZH: 而不是先上涨突破它的起跌点
08:07 - 08:11
EN: So if a trader sold below this bear bar and put a stop up here,
ZH: 如果一个交易者在这根阴线下方卖出， 然后把止损放在这里
08:11 - 08:16
EN: 60% chance it would get down here before it hit that stop.
ZH: 60%的概率会先下跌到这里，而不是先打掉它的止损
08:16 - 08:21
EN: Therefore, this is a good reasonable minimum goal.
ZH: 因此，这是一个合理的最低目标
08:27 - 08:31
EN: And you can see the tails and the sideways moved down here.
ZH: 可以看到这里有下影线，横盘
08:31 - 08:34
EN: It tells you that there was some profit-taking here.
ZH: 说明有的空头在这里买入止盈
08:34 - 08:39
EN: Traders in fact did take profits at a Measured Move down
ZH: 交易者把突破的高度往下翻一倍，作为止盈的MM目标位
08:37 - 08:39
EN: based upon the height of that bear breakout.
ZH: 交易者把突破的高度往下翻一倍，作为止盈的MM目标位
08:41 - 08:46
EN: Why would they do that? Well, their stop at this point is either
ZH: 他们为什么会这样做？ 因为他们的止损要么在抛售高潮的起跌点上方
08:45 - 08:48
EN: at the top of this Sell Climax or the top of this bear leg.
ZH: 他们为什么会这样做？ 因为他们的止损要么在抛售高潮的起跌点上方 要么在这个下跌波段的起跌点上方
08:49 - 08:53
EN: In either case, it’s far away and they want to reduce their risk.
ZH: 无论是哪种情况，止损都已经很远， 而他们想要降低（利润回撤的）风险
08:54 - 08:58
EN: The easiest way to reduce their risk is by reducing their position size,
ZH: 最简单的方法就是减小仓位
08:58 - 09:03
EN: and their profit-taking results in a pause or a bear flag.
ZH: 他们的止盈导致了暂停和反弹（熊旗）
Slide 006
Time: 09:09
Bilingual Transcript
09:09 - 09:11
EN: A small Double Top bear flag.
ZH: 小的双顶熊旗
09:11 - 09:16
EN: Reasonable to take a short selling below the low of that sell signal bar.
ZH: 在做空信号K线的低点下方做空是合理的
09:19 - 09:21
EN: We have a new strong breakout.
ZH: 新的强势跌破
09:22 - 09:27
EN: Traders who did sell there could lower their stop to just
ZH: 在那里做空的空头，可以把止损降低到新的起跌点上方
09:25 - 09:27
EN: above the height of that bear breakout.
ZH: 在那里做空的空头，可以把止损降低到新的起跌点上方
09:30 - 09:35
EN: Because it’s a strong breakout, it probably will result
ZH: 由于这是强势的突破，所以大概率会跌到某个MM目标位
09:33 - 09:35
EN: in some kind of a Measured Move down.
ZH: 由于这是强势的突破，所以大概率会跌到某个MM目标位
09:38 - 09:44
EN: Some bears are selling closes, others are selling
ZH: 一些空头在收盘时卖出， 其他人在阴线下方卖出——这里，这里，这里
09:41 - 09:44
EN: below bear bars – here, here, here.
ZH: 一些空头在收盘时卖出， 其他人在阴线下方卖出——这里，这里，这里
09:47 - 09:51
EN: Every new breakout creates a new potential Measured Move down.
ZH: 每次新的突破，都创造了新的潜在的MM目标位
09:51 - 09:57
EN: I have the Measured Move based upon the top of the bear breakout
ZH: 这里，我从突破的最高点测量到突破的最低点， 把这段高度往下翻一倍作为MM目标位
09:55 - 09:57
EN: to the bottom of the bear breakout.
ZH: 这里，我从突破的最高点测量到突破的最低点， 把这段高度往下翻一倍作为MM目标位
09:57 - 10:00
EN: Some computers will base it upon the open of the first bar
ZH: 一些电脑程序会从第1根K线的开盘价， 测量到最后一根K线的收盘价——
10:00 - 10:04
EN: to the close of the final bar – these 3 bars
ZH: 也就是把这3根线的高度往下翻一倍
10:04 - 10:08
EN: - and that would be a tighter projection, somewhere up in here.
ZH: 这样测量的MM目标位更近，大概在这里附近
10:09 - 10:13
EN: In any case, if you did sell here and you held short
ZH: 无论如何，如果你在这里卖出做空并持有
10:13 - 10:16
EN: and you have a new breakout, you have a new profit target.
ZH: 而且新的突破又很强势，你就有了新的目标位
10:20 - 10:24
EN: If you used a projection based upon the height of this entire breakout,
ZH: 如果你把整个突破的高度往下翻一倍作为MM目标位
10:24 - 10:28
EN: the market did not quite get there, but you’re at the end of the session.
ZH: 市场还没有完全到达目标位，但是已经临近收盘了
10:28 - 10:31
EN: It’s reasonable to exit on a reversal up.
ZH: 那么，在反转上涨时离场是合理的 （注：在阳线上方离场）
Slide 007
Time: 10:35
Bilingual Transcript
10:38 - 10:42
EN: We have a very strong rally and a deep pullback,
ZH: 非常强势的上涨，然后深度回调
10:42 - 10:44
EN: a type of Spike and Channel bear trend.
ZH: 像是急速变通道的下降趋势
10:44 - 10:46
EN: Strong bear breakout, so a spike.
ZH: 强势的空头突破，所以是急速下跌
10:46 - 10:51
EN: Second push, third push, and the market’s reversing up from the bottom
ZH: 第2推，第3推； 然后从通道下沿开始反转
10:51 - 10:54
EN: of the channel and just above the bottom of the bull trend.
ZH: 而且这里略微高于上涨趋势的起涨点
10:55 - 10:58
EN: Also, this Tight Trading Range is a Triangle.
ZH: 此外，这个窄震荡区间是一个三角形
10:58 - 11:03
EN: We had three reversals down – one, two, three
ZH: 有3次向下的反转——1，2，3
11:03 - 11:07
EN: - and you can call it a Triangle if you want, but a Tight Trading Range
ZH: ——所以你可以把它看作是三角形
11:07 - 11:10
EN: late in a bear trend usually becomes the final bear flag.
ZH: 而下降趋势后期的窄震荡区间，通常会成为末端熊旗
11:10 - 11:13
EN: The breakout usually does not go far and you get a reversal.
ZH: 突破通常不会走太远，然后会反转
11:13 - 11:16
EN: It’s reasonable to buy above the high of this bar.
ZH: 在这根K线的上方买入做多是合理的
11:16 - 11:19
EN: We have a Final Flag, a Wedge bear channel,
ZH: 这是楔形下降通道，潜在的末端熊旗
11:19 - 11:22
EN: and a test of the bottom of the bull trend.
ZH: 以及对上涨趋势起涨点的测试
11:29 - 11:32
EN: If you bought above the high of this bar, you got filled here.
ZH: 如果你在这根K线的高点上方挂突破买单，你会在这里成交
11:32 - 11:34
EN: The market went straight up.
ZH: 市场直线上涨
11:34 - 11:38
EN: Your Actual Risk was no more than to just below the low of that bar.
ZH: 你的实际风险不超过那根K线的低点
11:38 - 11:44
EN: Very tiny Actual Risk compared to the size
ZH: 与K线的大小和波动幅度相比，实际风险非常小
11:41 - 11:44
EN: of the bars and the size of the swings.
ZH: 与K线的大小和波动幅度相比，实际风险非常小
11:44 - 11:46
EN: Big swing up, big swing down.
ZH: 大涨，大跌
11:50 - 11:54
EN: Two times Actual Risk, it’s okay to take profits there,
ZH: 两倍的实际风险，在那里止盈也许合理
11:54 - 11:58
EN: but doing the minimum is rarely ever the best in life,
ZH: 但只满足最低要求，往往不是最好的做法
11:58 - 12:02
EN: and when you look at the size of the legs up and down
ZH: 对比这些波段的大小，
12:02 - 12:05
EN: and the size of the bars, this is probably way too small.
ZH: 实际风险实在太小了
12:05 - 12:08
EN: You probably stand to make much more profit.
ZH: 你大概率可以赚到更多的利润
Slide 008
Time: 12:10
Bilingual Transcript
12:15 - 12:20
EN: Another approach would be to take profit at other types of resistance
ZH: 另一种方法是在其他类型的阻力位止盈
12:20 - 12:23
EN: - for example, the top of the Triangle, the top of the final bear flag.
ZH: 例如，三角形的高点，也就是末端熊旗的高点
12:23 - 12:25
EN: It’s a reasonable place to take profits,
ZH: 那是一个合理的止盈位置
12:25 - 12:29
EN: and you can see there’s a pause here, a little bit of profit-taking.
ZH: 可以看到这里有一个暂停，说明有一些止盈的卖盘
12:34 - 12:36
EN: We’re also testing the bottom of a Trading Range.
ZH: 也测试了之前这个震荡区间的下沿
12:36 - 12:39
EN: We have a Double Bottom here and a breakout.
ZH: 这里有一个双底，被向下跌破了
12:39 - 12:41
EN: These lows create a breakout point.
ZH: 这些低点就变成了突破点
12:42 - 12:44
EN: You can see this bear bar and the tail here,
ZH: 可以看到这个阴线，和这个上影线
12:44 - 12:47
EN: and that indicates that there’s some selling there.
ZH: 说明那里有一些卖盘
12:47 - 12:50
EN: This profit-taking from these bulls.
ZH: 来自于多头的止盈
12:50 - 12:53
EN: Some of it might be bears selling, but with a bull trend
ZH: 也可能有空头在卖出做空， 但是在一个强上涨趋势中
12:53 - 13:02
EN: that is as strong as this, it’s probably more profit-taking
ZH: 回调更多是由于前期买入的多头在卖出止盈， 而不是由空头主导的
12:56 - 13:02
EN: from the bulls who bought anywhere in here than it is from bears selling.
ZH: 回调更多是由于前期买入的多头在卖出止盈， 而不是由空头主导的
13:06 - 13:10
EN: We have a gap between the low of this bar and the high of that bar.
ZH: 在这根K线的低点，和那根K线的高点之间有一个缺口
13:10 - 13:12
EN: It might result in a Measured Move up,
ZH: 可能是测量型缺口，会涨到上方的MM目标位
13:18 - 13:25
EN: and some traders would take profits
ZH: 一些交易者会在那个MM目标位止盈， 正好也是在这段下跌的起跌点附近
13:20 - 13:25
EN: around that Measured Move target, which is also around the top of this bear leg.
ZH: 一些交易者会在那个MM目标位止盈， 正好也是在这段下跌的起跌点附近
13:27 - 13:31
EN: Any time you get a pause at a logical profit-taking area,
ZH: 任何时候，如果价格在一个逻辑上合理的区域停顿，
13:31 - 13:34
EN: it’s a sign that many computers are taking profits there.
ZH: 就表明有很多电脑程序在这里止盈
13:35 - 13:40
EN: If it’s good for the institutions that programmed those computers,
ZH: 如果机构的电脑程序这么做能赚钱， 那么对你来说也是好的做法
13:39 - 13:40
EN: it’s good for you as well.
ZH: 如果机构的电脑程序这么做能赚钱， 那么对你来说也是好的做法
13:41 - 13:46
EN: Far better than taking a minimum profit based upon a very small Actual Risk.
ZH: 用这些目标位，远比根据很小的实际风险赚最低利润要好得多
Slide 009
Time: 13:50
Bilingual Transcript
13:54 - 13:55
EN: Strong bull trend.
ZH: 强上涨趋势
13:55 - 14:01
EN: It’s a High 2 pullback – a High 1 and then a High 2, a reasonable buy.
ZH: 这是高2回调——高1，然后高2，是合理的买点
14:01 - 14:02
EN: Dojis.
ZH: 十字星
14:02 - 14:05
EN: 3 dojis, so possible Tight Trading Range soon.
ZH: 3个十字星，所以可能很快会进入窄震荡区间
14:07 - 14:10
EN: This is probably too tight of a stop.
ZH: 这个止损可能太小了一些
14:10 - 14:13
EN: You’re in a Tight Trading Range and the market
ZH: 现在处于窄震荡区间，
14:13 - 14:16
EN: may come down more before it goes up.
ZH: 市场完全可以先进一步回调，然后再上涨
14:21 - 14:25
EN: A better stop is below the bottom of this bull breakout
ZH: 一个更好的止损位置，是放在多头突破的起涨点下方
14:25 - 14:28
EN: - possibly even below the bottom of the entire rally.
ZH: 甚至放在整个上涨的起涨点下方
14:30 - 14:35
EN: However, if you’re taking this buy, using a stop right
ZH: 在这里买入，然后把止损放在信号K线的下方， 这个止损太小了
14:33 - 14:35
EN: below your signal bar is probably too tight.
ZH: 在这里买入，然后把止损放在信号K线的下方， 这个止损太小了
14:35 - 14:37
EN: This is a more appropriate stop.
ZH: 止损放在这里更为合理
14:43 - 14:47
EN: You can use your Actual Risk to determine a profit target.
ZH: 你可以根据实际风险来决定目标位
14:48 - 14:53
EN: If ever you take a trade and you’re not sure where the profit target should be,
ZH: 如果在交易时不确定目标在哪里
14:53 - 14:56
EN: it’s always reasonable to take profits at two times your Actual Risk
ZH: 在两倍实际风险的地方止盈，总归是合理的选择
14:56 - 14:58
EN: or to swing trade and see how far it goes.
ZH: 或者按照波段交易，看看趋势能走多远 （注：波段交易，一直持有到趋势不再成立）
14:58 - 15:01
EN: Simply rely on a logical stop.
ZH: 依赖一个合理的止损
15:02 - 15:05
EN: And even if you buy this thinking you’re going to scalp,
ZH: 即使你在这里买入是为了做剥头皮交易
15:05 - 15:08
EN: I think you need a swing stop, and you should trade small enough
ZH: 我认为你也应该使用波段交易的初始止损，
15:08 - 15:12
EN: so that you can scale in more on a pullback if you get a pullback.
ZH: 并且用很小的初始仓位，这样在回调的时候就有空间加仓
15:18 - 15:21
EN: High probability that we’re going at least a little bit higher.
ZH: 很大的概率，至少还会再上涨一些
15:21 - 15:25
EN: Actual Risk – you buy above the high of this bar, you’re filled right here.
ZH: 实际风险——你在这根K线的高点上方挂突破买单， 订单在这里成交
15:25 - 15:26
EN: The market went straight up.
ZH: 市场直线上涨
15:26 - 15:31
EN: Your Actual Risk was there, and this is one times Actual Risk,
ZH: 你的实际风险是这一段，然后一倍实际风险在这里
15:31 - 15:33
EN: and you can see there’s a pullback there.
ZH: 可以看到，这里出现了一些回调
15:33 - 15:38
EN: Because the trend is strong, it’s a high probability that you’ll make a reward
ZH: 因为趋势很强，所以非常高的概率，
15:38 - 15:42
EN: at least equal to your risk, and therefore when you’re buying
ZH: 你可以赚到至少等同于风险的利润
15:42 - 15:45
EN: in a strong breakout like this, you have a high probability trade.
ZH: 如果在强突破的时候买入，这就是一笔高胜率的交易
15:45 - 15:50
EN: It’s reasonable to go for one times Actual Risk for your profit target,
ZH: 所以把一倍实际风险作为目标位是合理的
15:50 - 15:54
EN: as long as it’s at least as big as a minimum scalp.
ZH: 前提是它至少满足剥头皮交易的最小利润
Slide 010
Time: 16:00
Bilingual Transcript
16:00 - 16:04
EN: I want to talk more about using risk to determine profit targets.
ZH: 我想进一步地谈谈如何根据风险来确定目标位
Slide 011
Time: 16:06
Bilingual Transcript
16:10 - 16:14
EN: We have a bull trend, and if you want you can call it a High 1 bull flag,
ZH: 上涨趋势，你可以把它看作是高1牛旗
16:14 - 16:18
EN: you can call it a High 2 with this, you can call it a Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 你可以说它是高2，或者说它是双底牛旗
16:18 - 16:19
EN: Doesn’t matter.
ZH: 都可以
16:19 - 16:20
EN: It’s a pullback in a bull trend.
ZH: 总之，它是上涨趋势中的回调
16:20 - 16:22
EN: It’s reasonable to buy above the high of this bar.
ZH: 在这根K线的高点上方买入是合理的
16:28 - 16:31
EN: Remember, if you take profits based upon Actual Risk,
ZH: 如果你根据实际风险止盈，
16:31 - 16:34
EN: it gives you the minimum profit target that you need
ZH: 它会给你一个最低的利润目标，
16:34 - 16:38
EN: to have a profitable strategy, a positive Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 足够形成一个盈利的策略，因为数学期望是正的
16:40 - 16:42
EN: Never lose sight of that goal.
ZH: 不要忘记这个（最低的）目标
16:42 - 16:46
EN: You always need a reward equal to at least two times Actual Risk.
ZH: 你的利润目标总是要至少等于两倍实际风险
16:46 - 16:50
EN: In a strong trend you can go for one times Actual Risk.
ZH: 在强趋势中，你可以追求一倍实际风险
16:54 - 16:56
EN: Now, if you’re scalping, can you take profits
ZH: 现在，假如你在做剥头皮交易，
16:56 - 16:59
EN: based upon the Initial Risk instead of the Actual Risk?
ZH: 到底应该根据初始风险，还是根据实际风险来决定目标位？
17:05 - 17:07
EN: It really doesn’t matter whether you take the profits
ZH: 实际上，不管根据初始风险，
17:07 - 17:12
EN: based upon initial or Actual Risk, or any other support or resistance.
ZH: 还是根据实际风险，还是根据任何其它的支撑或阻力来止盈
17:12 - 17:15
EN: Your goal is to have a positive Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 最终的目标是拥有一个正的数学期望 （注：不止是正，最好要大于0.4，才能较好地稳定盈利）
17:16 - 17:20
EN: Any time you structure any trade, you have to make sure that it makes sense,
ZH: 任何一笔交易，你都必须确保它有意义，
17:20 - 17:22
EN: that you have a positive Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 也就是有一个正的数学期望
17:22 - 17:26
EN: The minimum profit is always two times Actual Risk,
ZH: 利润至少要是实际风险的两倍
17:26 - 17:29
EN: but sometimes that target is too small,
ZH: 但有时候实际风险太小（导致目标也太小）
17:29 - 17:33
EN: and you have a very high probability of making a bigger profit.
ZH: 而你有很高的概率可以赚到更大的利润 （注：此时就不应该再用实际风险去测量目标位了）
17:33 - 17:36
EN: Another choice is to use Initial Risk,
ZH: 另一个选择是使用初始风险
17:36 - 17:38
EN: which is almost always bigger than Actual Risk.
ZH: 初始风险总是大于等于实际风险的
Slide 012
Time: 17:45
Bilingual Transcript
17:46 - 17:51
EN: Risk provides you with targets that provide the minimum needed
ZH: 你可以根据风险来决定目标位，
17:51 - 17:55
EN: for a positive Trader’s Equation, but other targets are often better.
ZH: 以此构建出一个正的数学期望， 但其它目标通常是更好的选择
17:55 - 17:58
EN: And if the context is good and the target
ZH: 如果背景良好，而基于实际风险的目标位太小了，
17:58 - 18:03
EN: based upon Actual Risk looks too small, don’t exit at two times Actual Risk.
ZH: 那就不要在两倍实际风险的地方止盈
18:03 - 18:05
EN: Hold for a bigger profit.
ZH: 而是应该继续持有，追求更大的利润
18:05 - 18:08
EN: Use other support or resistance for your profit target.
ZH: 用其他支撑或阻力作为你的目标位
18:10 - 18:14
EN: Let’s say you buy above the high of this bar, and let’s say your stop
ZH: 假设你在这根K线的高点上方买入，
18:14 - 18:19
EN: is below the low of the bar, and that therefore is your Initial Risk.
ZH: 然后把止损放在这根K线的低点下方， 这就是你的初始风险
18:19 - 18:22
EN: From just above the high of this bar, you get filled right here down
ZH: 从这根K线的高点上方——即你的成交价格，
18:22 - 18:24
EN: to just below the low of that bar.
ZH: 到这根K线的低点下方
18:24 - 18:27
EN: That’s how much you’re willing to risk initially.
ZH: 这是你最初愿意承担的风险
18:29 - 18:33
EN: We got a little pullback after you entered and then the trend resumed,
ZH: 在你入场后，先是小幅的回调，然后趋势回复
18:33 - 18:39
EN: so your Actual Risk is from your entry price here
ZH: 所以你的实际风险是：从入场价， 到这根K线的低点，只有这么一点点
18:36 - 18:39
EN: to just below the low of this bar, right there.
ZH: 所以你的实际风险是：从入场价， 到这根K线的低点，只有这么一点点
18:41 - 18:44
EN: Bull trend, high probability trade.
ZH: 上涨趋势，所以是高胜率交易
18:44 - 18:49
EN: This is one times Actual Risk, and that’s a reasonable target
ZH: 这是一倍实际风险，所以对剥头皮的交易者来说是一个合理的目标
18:49 - 18:54
EN: for scalpers as long as it’s at least as big as a minimum scalp.
ZH: 前提是它必须满足最小的剥头皮规模
18:57 - 19:00
EN: One times Initial Risk is a little bit higher.
ZH: 一倍初始风险会更高一点
19:00 - 19:04
EN: Initial Risk is greater than the Actual Risk, and the market went a little bit
ZH: 初始风险大于实际风险，
19:04 - 19:09
EN: above that projection – although it’s hard to see on this screen,
ZH: 市场略微超过了这个目标位1个tick—— 可能在屏幕上很难看清楚
19:09 - 19:12
EN: it went a little bit above, so the traders who tried
ZH: 确实超过了这个目标价格， 所以在一倍初始止损距离止盈的交易者，
19:12 - 19:15
EN: to exit at one times Actual Risk made their target.
ZH: 达到了目标，他们的订单可以顺利成交
19:16 - 19:21
EN: Their profit-taking in part resulted in this pullback.
ZH: 回调的一部分原因，就来自于他们的止盈卖单
19:27 - 19:29
EN: Remember what you’re trying to accomplish here.
ZH: 关键是要知道，你想完成的目标是什么
19:29 - 19:33
EN: You’re trying to make money, and to make money, you need to be trading
ZH: 你在尝试赚钱，为了赚钱，
19:33 - 19:37
EN: in a way that results in a positive Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 你必须按照正的数学期望去交易
19:37 - 19:39
EN: If you take a hundred trades, you want to make sure
ZH: 如果你做100笔交易，
19:39 - 19:44
EN: that the trades you take result in a profit at the end of those hundred trades.
ZH: 你要确保在100交易之后，总体是盈利的
19:44 - 19:47
EN: You lose some, you win some, but you want a profit.
ZH: 有亏损的交易，也有盈利的交易，但最终的总账要赚钱
19:49 - 19:52
EN: There are only two things that you can control:
ZH: 你能够控制的事情只有两件：
19:53 - 19:56
EN: risk, which is where your stop is, and reward,
ZH: 一是风险，也就是止损的位置；
19:56 - 19:59
EN: which is where your profit-taking limit order is,
ZH: 二是利润，也就是止盈限价单的位置
19:59 - 20:04
EN: and you have to be able to take profits that make sense mathematically.
ZH: 你的利润必须在数学上合理
20:04 - 20:09
EN: It’s always mathematically acceptable to take profits at two times Actual Risk.
ZH: 在两倍实际风险的地方止盈，在数学上总是可以接受的
20:11 - 20:13
EN: When it’s small, you can go for a bigger target
ZH: 如果这个目标太小，你可以追求更大的目标
20:13 - 20:16
EN: - for example, two times Initial Risk.
ZH: ——例如，初始风险的两倍
20:16 - 20:21
EN: If you’re buying in a trend, taking profits at one times Actual Risk
ZH: 如果你在做顺趋势的交易，在一倍实际风险，
20:21 - 20:23
EN: or one times Initial Risk makes sense
ZH: 或者在一倍初始风险的地方止盈是合理的
20:23 - 20:25
EN: because the probability of making money is higher.
ZH: 因为顺势交易赚钱的概率更高（所以不需要很好的盈亏比）
20:26 - 20:31
EN: If you go for a tighter target, a smaller target like one times Actual Risk,
ZH: 如果你追求一个很小的目标，比如一倍实际风险，
20:31 - 20:34
EN: you have a higher probability of success,
ZH: 你成功的概率就更高
20:34 - 20:38
EN: which makes sense because your reward is smaller.
ZH: 这很容易理解——目标越小，成功率越高
20:38 - 20:42
EN: If you go for a bigger target, like one based upon Initial Risk,
ZH: 如果你追求一个更大的目标，比如一倍初始风险
20:43 - 20:44
EN: the target’s further away.
ZH: 这个目标更远
20:44 - 20:45
EN: The reward is greater.
ZH: 利润更大
20:46 - 20:49
EN: The probability is slightly less that you will achieve that goal,
ZH: 但达到那个目标的概率就变低了
20:50 - 20:52
EN: but the math is still valid.
ZH: 但数学上仍然是合理的
Slide 013
Time: 20:55
Bilingual Transcript
20:58 - 20:59
EN: We have a bull trend.
ZH: 上涨趋势
20:59 - 21:02
EN: Let’s say you bought the follow-through bar,
ZH: 假设你在跟随K线的收盘买入——
21:02 - 21:05
EN: the close of this bar after this breakout above that high.
ZH: 突破前期高点之后，在跟随K线的收盘买入
21:05 - 21:09
EN: Mathematically, that is an okay thing to do.
ZH: 从数学的角度，这么做是ok的
21:10 - 21:15
EN: And let’s say you put your stop just below the low of this bar,
ZH: 假设你把止损放在这根K线的低点下方
21:15 - 21:17
EN: and you would have been stopped out here.
ZH: 那么在这里，你会被止损离场
21:17 - 21:19
EN: This low fell below the low of that bar.
ZH: 因为这里跌破了那根K线的低点
21:20 - 21:22
EN: That would have been your Initial Risk.
ZH: 这是你的初始风险
21:22 - 21:25
EN: You buy here, you put your stop just below this bar,
ZH: 你在这里买入，把止损放在这根K线的低点下方
21:25 - 21:27
EN: and the market fell just below the low.
ZH: 市场正好跌破这个低点
21:27 - 21:28
EN: You would’ve been stopped out.
ZH: 于是你被止损离场
21:36 - 21:39
EN: Let’s say instead of the bulls getting stopped out,
ZH: 假设多头的止损没有被打到
21:39 - 21:43
EN: the market went up 5 ticks or 11 pips without pulling back.
ZH: 相反，市场直接上涨了5 ticks，或11 pips
21:44 - 21:48
EN: That trader then could have scalped, theoretically at least,
ZH: 那么理论上那个交易者可以做一笔剥头皮交易
21:48 - 21:52
EN: with a 4 tick profit – or if it was a Forex market, a 10 pip profit.
ZH: 赚到4 ticks（1个点）—— 如果是外汇，就是10 pips的剥头皮利润
21:59 - 22:04
EN: That would be greater than the 2 tick or 5 pip Actual Risk,
ZH: 利润大于实际风险——实际风险是2 ticks或5 pips
22:04 - 22:09
EN: and equal to the 4 tick/10 pip minimum scalp size,
ZH: 而且满足了剥头皮交易的最小目标——4 ticks或10 pips
22:09 - 22:11
EN: resulting in a positive Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 所以数学期望是正的
Slide 014
Time: 22:15
Bilingual Transcript
22:19 - 22:24
EN: But instead of reaching that minimum scalp 4 ticks above the entry price,
ZH: 然而，市场没有涨到4 ticks 或10 pips的最小剥头皮目标
22:24 - 22:29
EN: or Forex market 10 pips above the entry price, the market fell maybe 20 ticks
ZH: 而是下跌了20 ticks，或者50 pips
22:29 - 22:37
EN: or 50 pips to below the stop, and the trader ended up losing 20 ticks,
ZH: 导致交易者亏损了20 ticks——如果是标普期货，或者是股票
22:34 - 22:37
EN: for example, if it’s an Emini or a stock,
ZH: 导致交易者亏损了20 ticks——如果是标普期货，或者是股票
22:37 - 22:40
EN: or 50 pips let’s say if it’s a Forex market.
ZH: 或者亏损了50 pips——如果是外汇
22:45 - 22:50
EN: Can a trader keep going for a 4 tick scalp or a 10 pip scalp
ZH: 这样做能盈利吗？赚的时候只赚4 ticks（或10 pips）
22:50 - 22:55
EN: and sometimes lose 20 ticks, sometimes lose 50 pips, and still make a profit?
ZH: 但有时却亏损20 ticks（或50 pips） （注：如果只看这笔交易，赚1赔5，盈亏比极度糟糕）
22:59 - 23:04
EN: Here, we have a bull breakout and we have bull bars with bad follow-through.
ZH: 多头突破之后，阳线的跟随都不太好
23:04 - 23:06
EN: Bull bar, doji bar.
ZH: 阳线，十字星
23:06 - 23:08
EN: Bull bar, tail, doji bar.
ZH: 阳线，上影线，十字星
23:08 - 23:11
EN: Bull bar, bar with a tail, doji bar.
ZH: 阳线，上影线，十字星
23:11 - 23:17
EN: Traders would conclude that the market’s probably evolving
ZH: 交易者会认为，从最早的这两根十字星开始， 市场很可能就已经在向震荡区间转变
23:15 - 23:17
EN: into a Trading Range with these two dojis.
ZH: 交易者会认为，从最早的这两根十字星开始， 市场很可能就已经在向震荡区间转变
23:17 - 23:21
EN: Spike, pullback, channel, and the start of a Trading Range.
ZH: 急速，回调，通道，开始进入震荡区间
23:21 - 23:23
EN: Therefore the premise has changed.
ZH: 因此前提已经发生变化
23:23 - 23:27
EN: If you’re buying up here on the premise that it’s a bull trend
ZH: 你认为这是上涨趋势，所以在这里追涨
23:27 - 23:29
EN: and you see all of this Trading Range price action,
ZH: 但是，如果你仔细看之前的这么多震荡的价格行为，
23:29 - 23:33
EN: you probably have to conclude that it’s in a Trading Range.
ZH: 你就不得不考虑，市场很可能处于震荡区间
23:33 - 23:37
EN: It’s still in a bull trend, but a Trading Range within the bull trend.
ZH: 它仍然是上涨趋势，但是它是上涨趋势中的震荡区间
23:43 - 23:45
EN: You can also argue Expanding Triangle
ZH: 你也可以把它看作是扩张三角形
23:45 - 23:49
EN: - little reversal down, reversal down, reversal down.
ZH: ——小幅反转下跌，反转下跌，反转下跌
23:50 - 23:56
EN: If you took that buy, should you wait for your stop to be hit
ZH: 如果你在那里买入，你应该眼睁睁地看着这个止损被打掉吗？
23:54 - 24:01
EN: below the low of this bar? A lot of traders would just say,
ZH: 如果你在那里买入，你应该眼睁睁地看着这个止损被打掉吗？ 很多交易者会说：“好吧，确实不再是一个强势的上涨趋势。
23:57 - 24:01
EN: “Okay, it’s really not a strong bull trend at this point.
ZH: 很多交易者会说：“好吧，确实不再是一个强势的上涨趋势。
24:01 - 24:02
EN: It might be a Trading Range.
ZH: 它可能是震荡区间
24:02 - 24:04
EN: I could get a very deep pullback.
ZH: 有深度回调的风险
24:04 - 24:07
EN: Maybe I should just exit below a bear bar and get out here
ZH: 也许我应该在阴线下方先离场，
24:07 - 24:10
EN: instead of waiting for my stop to get hit down here.”
ZH: 而不是眼睁睁地看着止损被打掉。”
24:14 - 24:17
EN: And if you did exit there, we have a strong bear bar
ZH: 如果你在这里离场了，然后看到这个强势的大阴线——
24:17 - 24:21
EN: - probably at least a small second leg sideways to down,
ZH: 至少会有小的第2段下跌或横盘
24:21 - 24:23
EN: and this could be that second leg down.
ZH: 这可能就是那个第2段下跌
24:23 - 24:26
EN: We have a bull bar closing on its high,
ZH: 这里有阳线收在最高
24:26 - 24:28
EN: another bull bar closing on its high here.
ZH: 这里又有阳线收在最高
24:28 - 24:32
EN: This is a second reversal up from around this low,
ZH: 第2次从这个低点附近向上反转
24:32 - 24:34
EN: the bottom of a developing range.
ZH: 同时也是一个震荡区间的下沿
24:34 - 24:36
EN: It’s a reasonable buy.
ZH: 在这里买入是合理的
Slide 015
Time: 24:40
Bilingual Transcript
24:45 - 24:49
EN: Now, let’s go back to the trader who bought this close,
ZH: 现在，回到那个在这根K线收盘买入的交易者
24:49 - 24:51
EN: hoping that the market would continue higher,
ZH: 他希望市场会继续上涨
24:51 - 24:55
EN: and let’s say he put his stop below the low of this bull leg.
ZH: 假设他把止损放在这个上涨波段的起涨点下方
24:55 - 24:58
EN: This is really not a particularly major Higher Low.
ZH: 这其实不是一个特别重要的低点
24:58 - 25:02
EN: We got a new high, but the breakout is not all that strong.
ZH: 尽管价格创新高，但突破并不是那么的强势
25:02 - 25:05
EN: It’s probably better to think this might be a Trading Range
ZH: 更好的做法是把它看作是一个震荡区间，
25:05 - 25:07
EN: and use a wider stop, maybe below here.
ZH: 并使用较宽的初始止损，比如放在这里
25:07 - 25:11
EN: But let’s say he did put his stop below that bar.
ZH: 但假设他确实把止损放在了那根K线的下方
25:12 - 25:13
EN: He lost a lot of points.
ZH: 止损，亏了不少
25:13 - 25:17
EN: So he was trying to make 1 point and he lost several points,
ZH: 他尝试赚1个点（4 ticks），却亏了好几个点
25:17 - 25:21
EN: or was trying to make 10 pips, he lost whatever, 50 pips.
ZH: 或者尝试赚 10 pips，却亏了50 pips
25:22 - 25:26
EN: This is not representative of all of his losing trades.
ZH: 这并不代表他所有的交易都会亏那么多
25:26 - 25:27
EN: It’s an outlier.
ZH: 这是一个异常值
25:27 - 25:32
EN: It’s unusual that he’ll be losing that much when trying to make a scalp.
ZH: 在剥头皮的时候出现这么大的亏损，并不常见
25:39 - 25:41
EN: Also, it’s not great trade selection.
ZH: 此外，这不是一个好的交易机会
25:41 - 25:44
EN: Not many bulls would take the third push up after a breakout
ZH: 已经是突破之后的第3腿，很少有多头会在这里追涨——
25:44 - 25:50
EN: - breakout, second push, third push – especially when the rally looks weak
ZH: 突破，第2推，第3推—— 尤其是上涨看起来很弱
25:50 - 25:52
EN: and there’s a potential for an Expanding Triangle top.
ZH: 而且有可能是一个扩张三角形的顶部
25:58 - 26:01
EN: Therefore, this is not a typical average buy,
ZH: 所以，这不是一个典型的做多机会，
26:01 - 26:06
EN: and this is not the typical average risk that you would be taking,
ZH: 平时通常不会承担这么多风险，
26:06 - 26:11
EN: and therefore it doesn’t represent accurately what an average trade looks like.
ZH: 所以它不能准确地代表大部分交易
26:13 - 26:16
EN: If you’re scalping, therefore, you should not look at this and say,
ZH: 因此，如果你在剥头皮，你不能这样去思考：
26:16 - 26:25
EN: “Well how can I possibly make money if I’m risking several points
ZH: “如果我冒50 pips的风险，去赚10 pips， 这怎么可能赚得到钱？？”
26:20 - 26:25
EN: to make 1 point or 50 pips to make 10 pips?”
ZH: “如果我冒50 pips的风险，去赚10 pips， 这怎么可能赚得到钱？？”
26:25 - 26:28
EN: It’s because this is not what the average losing trade looks like,
ZH: 因为它不能代表大部分亏损的交易
26:28 - 26:31
EN: and this is not what the average entry looks like.
ZH: 这个做多的机会也不像平时大部分交易那么好
26:31 - 26:35
EN: So it’s not representative of an average collection
ZH: 所以它无法代表你平时会做的大部分交易
26:34 - 26:35
EN: of trades that you would take.
ZH: 所以它无法代表你平时会做的大部分交易
Slide 016
Time: 26:40
Bilingual Transcript
26:44 - 26:50
EN: For every one of those 20 tick or 50 pip losses, there is an equal number
ZH: 既然存在20 ticks或50 pips这样异常的亏损，
26:50 - 26:54
EN: of Double Bottoms and 20 tick or 50 pip gains.
ZH: 就会有同样大小的异常盈利
26:58 - 27:01
EN: Here we have an example of a bull breakout and good follow-through.
ZH: 这里，多头突破，良好的跟随
27:01 - 27:06
EN: Traders can buy that close, and probably better to put the stop
ZH: 交易者可以在那根K线的收盘买入，
27:06 - 27:09
EN: below the bottom of the bull trend, not just below the bull breakout.
ZH: 最好把止损放在上涨趋势的起涨点下方， 而不仅仅是多头突破的起涨点下方
27:09 - 27:14
EN: And the market came exactly down to the bottom of that bull trend,
ZH: 市场正好下跌到这个上涨趋势的起涨点
27:14 - 27:19
EN: and twice it got there – Micro Double Bottom – and did not hit the stop.
ZH: 并且两次正好跌到这个价格——小双底，没有打掉止损
27:24 - 27:28
EN: And now your Actual Risk is just below this low.
ZH: 现在你的实际风险就在这个低点（等于初始风险）
27:28 - 27:34
EN: You bought here; the market went against you to just below that low.
ZH: 你在绿色框框买入，市场先回调下跌
27:34 - 27:38
EN: It’s reasonable to go for a profit
ZH: 在这个情况下，追求一倍实际风险的利润是合理的， 也就是在这里
27:35 - 27:38
EN: at least one times Actual Risk, which is up here.
ZH: 在这个情况下，追求一倍实际风险的利润是合理的， 也就是在这里
Slide 017
Time: 27:45
Bilingual Transcript
27:46 - 27:50
EN: This is an extreme example the other way.
ZH: 这是反向的几段案例
27:50 - 27:52
EN: There was an extreme drawdown.
ZH: 先是大幅回调，
27:52 - 27:56
EN: The stop did not get hit, and the trader was able to hold
ZH: 正好没有打掉你的止损，让你可以继续持有
27:56 - 28:00
EN: for a reward bigger than 4 ticks or 10 pips.
ZH: 最终赚到了较大的利润
28:01 - 28:03
EN: It also is an outlier.
ZH: 这也是一个异常值
28:03 - 28:08
EN: It’s something unusual, not representative of the collection
ZH: 这种情况并不常见，不能代表你的大部分交易
28:07 - 28:08
EN: of trades that you would take.
ZH: 这种情况并不常见，不能代表你的大部分交易
28:08 - 28:10
EN: But these trades do happen.
ZH: 但这些交易确实会发生
28:10 - 28:14
EN: Just like you get occasional big losers, you get occasional big winners.
ZH: 就像你偶尔会有较大的亏损，也会有较大的盈利
28:19 - 28:22
EN: Again, not a strong buy setup.
ZH: 再次强调，这不是一个强势的做多机会
28:23 - 28:27
EN: Most of the setups have higher probability and smaller risk,
ZH: 大部分交易机会有更高的胜率和更小的风险
28:27 - 28:32
EN: but if you take this trade, your stop is below the bottom
ZH: 你在这里买入，止损放在重要的低点下方，放在这里
28:30 - 28:32
EN: of the major Higher Low, below this low.
ZH: 你在这里买入，止损放在重要的低点下方，放在这里
28:33 - 28:37
EN: And if you get a deep pullback, then your Actual Risk is big,
ZH: 如果出现深度地回调，那么你的实际风险是很大的
28:37 - 28:42
EN: and it’s probably worth trying to make a profit
ZH: 在这种情况下，把目标设置为一倍实际风险，是值得去尝试的
28:40 - 28:42
EN: that is equal to your Actual Risk.
ZH: 在这种情况下，把目标设置为一倍实际风险，是值得去尝试的
28:42 - 28:46
EN: A lot of traders would simply get out breakeven at their original entry price,
ZH: 很多交易者会在初始入场价打平离场
28:46 - 28:48
EN: and that’s what caused this pullback.
ZH: 这就是这个回调形成的原因
28:49 - 28:52
EN: Some traders would buy here, keep their stop here,
ZH: 一些交易者在这里买入之后，把止损放在这里
28:52 - 28:55
EN: and then when they get a bull bar, they’ll buy more here
ZH: 当他们看到阳线的时候，会在它的上方买入更多
28:55 - 29:00
EN: and either get out everything here or part out here, and then the rest here.
ZH: 然后在初始入场价格全部离场； 或部分离场，剩下的部分在这里止盈
29:09 - 29:11
EN: Whenever you’re looking at a strategy and trying to determine
ZH: 当你研究一个策略，尝试看它在数学上是否合理，
29:11 - 29:16
EN: if it makes sense mathematically, you have to be careful about sampling error.
ZH: 必须要注意样本误差 （注：样本误差，指某些特殊情况不能代表整体）
29:16 - 29:22
EN: You can’t just sample one setup and assume it represents all the other setups,
ZH: 你不能只看某一笔交易，并且假设它代表所有的情况
29:22 - 29:26
EN: because a lot of times you’ll be picking one that’s fairly extreme
ZH: 因为你有可能正好选到了一个相当极端的案例，
29:26 - 29:29
EN: and not representative of all the other trades that you take.
ZH: 它无法代表你平时所做的大部分交易
29:29 - 29:32
EN: If you take a hundred trades and go for one times risk
ZH: 如果你做100笔交易，高胜率的机会就用一倍风险，
29:32 - 29:40
EN: when the trades are high probability and two times risk
ZH: 胜率不是特别高的机会，就用两倍风险； 这样做的话，赚钱的机会是很大的
29:36 - 29:40
EN: when the trades are low probability, the odds of making a profit are very high.
ZH: 胜率不是特别高的机会，就用两倍风险； 这样做的话，赚钱的机会是很大的
Slide 018
Time: 29:45
Bilingual Transcript
29:51 - 29:58
EN: If instead you only want to look at a few of your 100 trades and try
ZH: 相反，如果你只看100笔交易中的某几个，
29:58 - 30:02
EN: to determine whether or not your strategy is good, make sure that the sample
ZH: 试图以此判断这个策略好不好，
30:02 - 30:05
EN: that you’re looking at represents an average typical trade
ZH: 那一定要选择能够代表平均情况的典型样本
30:05 - 30:09
EN: and not an extreme winner or an extreme loser.
ZH: 而不是极端的大赚或大亏
30:15 - 30:20
EN: If a billion people each took 100 trades and managed them well,
ZH: 如果十亿人，每个人都做100笔交易，而且用正确地方法去管理他们的交易
30:20 - 30:23
EN: the group has a very, very high probability of making a profit.
ZH: 这个群体总体盈利的概率，很高很高
30:29 - 30:33
EN: However, there’ll be one person in that group of a billion
ZH: 然而，在那十亿人中，会有一个倒霉蛋，
30:33 - 30:38
EN: who loses 20 ticks or 50 pips on all 100 trades.
ZH: 每一笔交易都亏20 ticks或pips
30:38 - 30:40
EN: That’s sampling error.
ZH: 那就是样本误差
30:45 - 30:48
EN: There’ll also be one lucky trader who makes 20 ticks
ZH: 还会有一个幸运星，在所有的100笔交易中，
30:48 - 30:51
EN: and 50 pips on all 100 trades.
ZH: 每一笔交易都赚20 ticks或pips
30:51 - 30:53
EN: Again, those are the outliers.
ZH: 同样，这也是异常值
30:54 - 30:58
EN: But the entire group would make money, which means the average person
ZH: 这10亿个人，总体是赚钱的，
30:58 - 31:01
EN: who used that strategy would make money.
ZH: 也就是说，使用这个策略，平均每个人可以赚钱
Slide 019
Time: 31:05
Bilingual Transcript
31:07 - 31:11
EN: I made the point that if you base your profit on the size of Actual Risk,
ZH: 这节课，我主要讲了，如果你根据实际风险的大小来决定利润目标，
31:11 - 31:14
EN: you have a reasonable approach to trading.
ZH: 这个交易方法在数学上是合理的
31:14 - 31:19
EN: Your minimum goal is going to be at least two times Actual Risk for most trades.
ZH: 在大部分交易中，你的最低目标应该至少是实际风险的两倍
31:19 - 31:22
EN: If you’re buying a high probability trade or selling a high probability trade
ZH: 如果你做的是高胜率的交易机会
31:22 - 31:27
EN: - for example, during a strong breakout – you can exit with one times Actual Risk.
ZH: ——例如，在强势突破期间入场—— 你可以在一倍实际风险的地方离场
31:27 - 31:31
EN: But that is the minimum, and the minimum is rarely the best.
ZH: 但那只是最低目标，而最低目标很少是最好的选择
31:32 - 31:37
EN: And I talked about other ways to use risk to find your profit targets.
ZH: 然后我也谈到了其它根据风险来确定目标位的方法
31:41 - 31:42
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
31:42 - 31:44
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
31:44 - 31:48
EN: This is the second of two videos on Actual Risk.
ZH: 实际风险的两节课，到这里就全部讲完了