al-brooks-course
31C - Swing Trading and Scalping
Raw transcript and slide notes for 31C - Swing Trading and Scalping.
Overview
- Slides: 21
- Transcript segments: 510
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:09
EN: This is the third of four videos on swing trading and scalping.
ZH: 这是波段交易和剥头皮交易的第3节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:10
Bilingual Transcript
00:13 - 00:15
EN: Scalping is not for beginners.
ZH: 剥头皮交易不适合新手
00:15 - 00:20
EN: In fact, most professional profitable traders do not scalp much at all.
ZH: 实际上，即使是稳定盈利的专业交易员， 大部分也不怎么做剥头皮
00:20 - 00:22
EN: They focus on swing trading.
ZH: 他们专注于做波段交易
00:22 - 00:27
EN: However, when a trader does scalp, he has to be aware of minimum scalp sizes.
ZH: 然而，当交易者剥头皮的时候， 他必须注意剥头皮的最小目标
00:27 - 00:31
EN: There’s a realistic minimum scalp size, and you need to be aware of this.
ZH: 需要注意一个现实的最小目标是多少
Slide 002
Time: 00:34
Bilingual Transcript
00:40 - 00:43
EN: Most traders should always be looking for swing trades.
ZH: 大多数交易者专注于寻找波段交易的机会
00:43 - 00:45
EN: Sometimes a swing trade turns into a scalp.
ZH: 有时波段交易会变成剥头皮交易
00:45 - 00:48
EN: Beginners should never look for scalps
ZH: 新手不应该做剥头皮
00:48 - 00:51
EN: because it’s very difficult to trade them profitably.
ZH: 因为很难通过剥头皮稳定盈利
00:51 - 00:52
EN: You need a very high winning percentage,
ZH: 你需要非常高的胜率
00:52 - 00:55
EN: and that’s just not realistic for a beginner.
ZH: 而这对新手来说是不现实的
00:56 - 01:01
EN: When a trader is scalping, it’s usually easier to make money
ZH: 如果要剥头皮，顺着趋势去交易通常更容易赚钱
00:59 - 01:01
EN: when you’re trading with the trend.
ZH: 如果要剥头皮，顺着趋势去交易通常更容易赚钱
01:01 - 01:06
EN: Beginners should never trade against a trend, even if the trend is weak.
ZH: 就算趋势很弱，新手也不应该逆势交易
01:10 - 01:11
EN: Bull trend.
ZH: 上涨趋势
01:11 - 01:14
EN: If you’re going to scalp, it’s easier to make money looking for buys.
ZH: 如果你要剥头皮，做多更容易赚钱
01:14 - 01:18
EN: Here we have a small Double Bottom, a High 2 – one, two.
ZH: 这里有一个小双底，高2——1，2
01:19 - 01:20
EN: Strong breakout.
ZH: 强势突破
01:20 - 01:21
EN: Tried to reverse down.
ZH: 回调
01:21 - 01:23
EN: We have a bull bar, resumption up.
ZH: 阳线，恢复上涨
01:23 - 01:26
EN: Now we have a pullback to a Double Bottom and a bull bar.
ZH: 再次回调，形成双底，有一根阳线
01:26 - 01:28
EN: Buy above that.
ZH: 在它的上方开仓做多
01:28 - 01:32
EN: We have a High 2 buy – one, two – and it’s a Double Bottom with that low
ZH: 这是一个高2买点——1，2—— 这里和这个低点也组成了双顶；
01:32 - 01:35
EN: and a Higher Low, a pullback from this breakout.
ZH: 这里低点抬高，突破，然后回调
01:35 - 01:40
EN: And now we have a Micro Double Bottom, a second entry buy, a Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 现在有一个小双底，第2做多入场点； 窄震荡区间
01:40 - 01:44
EN: You can look at it as a small Triangle, a breakout and a pullback.
ZH: 你可以把它看作一个小三角形，突破，然后回调
01:44 - 01:50
EN: Two legs down – one, pullback, two – so a High 2 bull flag, about a 50% pullback.
ZH: 两段下跌——1，反弹，2——所以是高2牛旗， 也大约是50%回调
01:50 - 01:55
EN: These are all reasonably high probability trades, and they’re reasonable scalps.
ZH: 这些都是胜率相当高的机会，也是合理的剥头皮机会
01:59 - 02:04
EN: Many very profitable traders who swing trade for the majority of their profit
ZH: 很多赚大钱的交易员，他们大部分的利润都来自于波段交易
02:04 - 02:07
EN: often will take scalps in addition to their swing trading.
ZH: 偶尔也会做一些剥头皮
02:07 - 02:11
EN: So for example, in a bull trend, they’ll be looking to buy pullbacks,
ZH: 例如，在上涨趋势中，他们会在回调时买入，
02:11 - 02:15
EN: sometimes scalping part, swinging part.
ZH: 一部分快速止盈（一部分剥头皮）， 然后继续持有剩下的仓位（一部分波段）
Slide 003
Time: 02:19
Bilingual Transcript
02:19 - 02:24
EN: When a beginner starts out, he thinks about only one thing: death.
ZH: 新手刚开始交易的时候，他只会考虑一件事：死亡
02:24 - 02:27
EN: Death of his career, death of his dream as a trader.
ZH: 交易生涯的死亡，成为交易员的梦想的死亡
02:27 - 02:33
EN: He is always focused on risk, and therefore he’s drawn to scalps
ZH: 他过于在乎风险，所以被剥头皮交易所吸引
02:33 - 02:36
EN: because he knows that with a scalp, the stop can be tight,
ZH: 因为他知道剥头皮的时候可以用很小的止损
02:36 - 02:38
EN: the risk is therefore small.
ZH: 因此风险很小
02:38 - 02:43
EN: However, he overlooks a very important variable, and that’s probability.
ZH: 然而，他忽略了一个非常重要的变量，那就是概率
02:43 - 02:48
EN: Unless you can structure a trade with a very high probability,
ZH: 除非你能够构建一个胜率很高的交易体系，
02:48 - 02:50
EN: you will lose when you scalp.
ZH: 否则你做剥头皮就会亏钱
02:50 - 02:55
EN: Beginners are always looking at a trend as overdone, climactic.
ZH: 新手总是认为一个趋势已经超涨/超跌，已经高潮了
02:55 - 02:59
EN: They’re always seeing Wedges – one, two, three, one, two, three.
ZH: 他们总是看到楔形反转——1，2，3；1，2，3
02:59 - 03:00
EN: They’re always looking for tops.
ZH: 他们总是在预测顶部
03:00 - 03:04
EN: They always want to believe that the trend cannot go much further,
ZH: 他们总是觉得趋势不会再继续了
03:04 - 03:07
EN: and because they’re only focused on risk, they think
ZH: 因为他们只专注于风险，他们认为：
03:07 - 03:10
EN: “Ah, maybe if I sell a reversal, my stop will be tight,
ZH: “啊，如果我做反转，卖出做空，我的止损很小，
03:10 - 03:13
EN: my risk will be small, and I can make some money.”
ZH: 风险很小，可以赚一些钱。”
03:13 - 03:17
EN: The problem is, 80% of reversals fail,
ZH: 但问题是，80%反转的尝试都会失败，
03:17 - 03:21
EN: and therefore looking to sell reversals is a low probability trade.
ZH: 因此，做空押注反转是低胜率的交易
03:21 - 03:26
EN: If you have low probability and low reward, you’re going to lose money.
ZH: 如果你的胜率低，利润也低，你就会亏钱
03:28 - 03:32
EN: For example, we have a Wedge – one, two, three – reversing down.
ZH: 例如，有一个楔形——1，2，3——反转下跌
03:32 - 03:34
EN: We have a failed breakout above a Wedge, reversing down.
ZH: 向上突破楔形顶失败，反转下跌
03:34 - 03:37
EN: Here we have a Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 这里是高点降低的大反转结构
03:37 - 03:39
EN: Here we have a failed breakout above a Double Top.
ZH: 这里向上突破双顶失败
03:39 - 03:41
EN: Here we have a Final Flag reversal.
ZH: 这里有末端旗形的反转机会
03:41 - 03:43
EN: Here we have a Wedge – one, two, three.
ZH: 这里有一个楔形顶——1，2，3
03:44 - 03:50
EN: All of them look logical, except for one thing: it’s a Small Pullback Bull Trend.
ZH: 这些做空机会看似都很合理，但是有一个问题： 这是一个回调很小的上涨趋势
03:50 - 03:54
EN: The pullbacks are small, which means the reversals down are small,
ZH: 回调很小，意味着反转下跌的幅度很小
03:54 - 03:58
EN: and in general there’s not enough room for a scalp
ZH: 所以如果空头在K线下方用突破卖单做空， 没有足够的盈利空间
03:56 - 03:58
EN: if you’re selling with a stop below bars.
ZH: 所以如果空头在K线下方用突破卖单做空， 没有足够的盈利空间
03:58 - 04:02
EN: Some skilled traders might sell with limit orders above bars and scale in,
ZH: 一些技术高超的交易员可能会在K线上方挂限价卖单， 并且逢高继续加仓，
04:02 - 04:05
EN: but when you have a Small Pullback Bull Trend like this,
ZH: 但是当市场处于这种回调很小的上涨趋势时，
04:05 - 04:07
EN: it’s better only to look to buy.
ZH: 最好只做多、不做空
04:07 - 04:12
EN: On the next higher timeframe chart, this entire trend is a strong breakout.
ZH: 在更高的时间周期上，整段趋势就是一个强势的多头突破
04:17 - 04:24
EN: The beginner sells below this bear bar, thinking “Okay, I’m only risking here.
ZH: 新手在这个阴线下方开仓做空，心想： “好！止损只有这一点点距离，我的风险很小。”
04:21 - 04:27
EN: My risk is small.” However, small risk always means low probability,
ZH: 新手在这个阴线下方开仓做空，心想： “好！止损只有这一点点距离，我的风险很小。” 然而，风险小通常代表胜率也小
04:27 - 04:31
EN: and if you have a low probability trade, you need a big reward.
ZH: 如果你的胜率低，就需要大的利润
04:31 - 04:34
EN: If you’re scalping, you’re going for a small reward.
ZH: 如果你做剥头皮，你的目标是小利润
04:35 - 04:39
EN: The trade that the beginner is setting up is just destined to fail.
ZH: 所以这样做注定会亏钱 （注：因为胜率又低、利润又小）
04:39 - 04:42
EN: Even if he wins 50% or 60% of the time, his reward is going to be
ZH: 即使他50%、60%的时间获胜，
04:42 - 04:47
EN: no bigger than his risk, and therefore he will lose money.
ZH: 但由于利润太小，最终仍然会亏钱
04:47 - 04:49
EN: It’s a low probability strategy.
ZH: 这是一种低胜率的策略
04:49 - 04:50
EN: It’s doomed to fail.
ZH: 注定会失败
04:53 - 04:56
EN: Every loss will be at least as big as each winner,
ZH: 每次的亏损都不比盈利小，
04:56 - 04:59
EN: and you probably will have more losers than winners
ZH: 而且更多的时间都在亏损
04:59 - 05:02
EN: - especially when you’re trading against a very strong bull trend like this,
ZH: ——尤其是在这么强的趋势中逆势做空的时候
05:02 - 05:06
EN: looking to sell – and you’ll bleed to death from a thousand paper cuts.
ZH: 胜率非常低，最终亏损积少成多、滴水穿石
05:06 - 05:09
EN: Each loss is small, but after you’ve had three,
ZH: 每次亏损都很小，但在3、4、5、6次之后
05:08 - 05:12
EN: four, five, or six of them, you end up with a pretty big loss.
ZH: 每次亏损都很小，但在3、4、5、6次之后 最终会累积成相当大的亏损
Slide 004
Time: 05:14
Bilingual Transcript
05:15 - 05:20
EN: On the other hand, a strong bull trend like this, you should only look to buy.
ZH: 应该反过来做，在这么强的上涨趋势中，应该只考虑做多
05:24 - 05:27
EN: If there’s a clear stairs pattern with good size pullbacks,
ZH: 如果是一个明显的阶梯模式，并且回调幅度较大
05:27 - 05:32
EN: expert traders will trade against the trend, selling new highs.
ZH: 那么有些高手会逆势交易，逢高做空
05:32 - 05:33
EN: Here, that’s not the case.
ZH: 这里不是那种情况
05:33 - 05:35
EN: We’re getting gaps.
ZH: 多头制造了很多缺口
05:35 - 05:42
EN: Gaps mean small pullbacks, small reversals down, and it’s very dangerous
ZH: 缺口意味着回调的幅度很小， 在这么窄的通道中逆势交易是非常危险的
05:39 - 05:42
EN: to trade against a trend that’s in a Tight Channel,
ZH: 缺口意味着回调的幅度很小， 在这么窄的通道中逆势交易是非常危险的
05:42 - 05:45
EN: small pullbacks, and forming gaps.
ZH: 回调很小，形成缺口
05:46 - 05:47
EN: You should only look to buy.
ZH: 应该只考虑买入
05:47 - 05:52
EN: You buy the pullbacks, betting that the reversal attempts down will fail.
ZH: 在回调时买入，押注反转下跌的尝试会失败
05:57 - 05:59
EN: This high, that low, a gap.
ZH: 这个高点和那个低点之间有缺口
05:59 - 06:02
EN: This high, these lows, a gap, a gap.
ZH: 这个高点和这些低点之间有缺口
06:02 - 06:06
EN: This is a Small Pullback Bull Trend, and the pullbacks are not big enough
ZH: 这是一个回调很小的上涨趋势，回调幅度不够大
06:06 - 06:09
EN: for bears to make money, especially looking to sell with stops.
ZH: 所以空头——尤其是用突破卖单入场的话——赚不到钱
06:10 - 06:13
EN: When an expert trader looks at this, he sees a strong bull trend
ZH: 当一个高手看到这种行情时，他看到的是强上涨趋势
06:13 - 06:15
EN: and he’s only looking to buy.
ZH: 他只会考虑买入
06:15 - 06:16
EN: He’ll buy for any reason.
ZH: 他会出于任何理由买入
06:16 - 06:17
EN: He’ll buy pullbacks.
ZH: 他会在回调时买入
06:17 - 06:20
EN: These are all examples of pullback buys.
ZH: 这些都是回调买入的例子
06:20 - 06:23
EN: He’ll buy below bear bars, betting the reversals down will fail.
ZH: 可以在阴线下方挂单买入，押注反转下跌会失败
06:23 - 06:26
EN: He’ll buy bear closes, betting the reversals will fail.
ZH: 可以在阴线的收盘买入，押注反转下跌失败
06:26 - 06:28
EN: He’ll buy at the market.
ZH: 也可以市价买入
06:30 - 06:32
EN: Pullbacks are small.
ZH: 回调很小
06:32 - 06:33
EN: We’re getting gaps.
ZH: 有很多缺口
06:33 - 06:36
EN: Small Pullback Bull Trend, only look to buy.
ZH: 回调很小的上涨趋势，只考虑做多
06:37 - 06:42
EN: You can see the reversals down did not go below the breakout points.
ZH: 可以看到，回调的最低点没有碰到突破点
06:42 - 06:43
EN: We’re forming gaps.
ZH: 所以这些都是缺口
06:44 - 06:46
EN: When you have a Small Pullback Bull Trend
ZH: 当市场处于回调很小的上涨趋势，
06:46 - 06:49
EN: and it’s getting gaps like this, you cannot make money selling.
ZH: 并且有这样的缺口时，你无法通过做空赚钱
06:49 - 06:55
EN: You might make money on some of the trades, but your losses will be greater
ZH: 偶尔一两笔也许能赚一些小钱，但总的亏损会比盈利更大， 最终是亏钱的
06:53 - 06:55
EN: than your wins, and you will lose money.
ZH: 偶尔一两笔也许能赚一些小钱，但总的亏损会比盈利更大， 最终是亏钱的
06:56 - 07:00
EN: So even with a small risk, you’re going to lose money selling.
ZH: 所以，即使做空的风险很小，仍然会亏钱
Slide 005
Time: 07:02
Bilingual Transcript
07:03 - 07:08
EN: When there’s a stairs pattern, you can make money trading against the trend.
ZH: 如果市场处于阶梯模式，那么可以通过逆势交易赚钱
07:08 - 07:12
EN: In a stairs pattern, a pullback goes above the breakout point.
ZH: 在阶梯形模式中，反弹会高于突破点
07:13 - 07:17
EN: Here, we have a reversal up, but did it get above the breakout point?
ZH: 这里有向上的反弹，但它是否高于前期的突破点？
07:17 - 07:20
EN: No, we still have a gap, and the pullbacks are very small.
ZH: 没有，仍然有缺口，而且反弹幅度很小
07:20 - 07:23
EN: This is a pretty good size bar.
ZH: 这根大阳线的体积很大
07:23 - 07:26
EN: It might tempt bulls to begin to look for buys,
ZH: 它可能会诱使多头开始买入
07:26 - 07:29
EN: but whenever you’re getting gaps and the pullbacks are small,
ZH: 然而，只要存在缺口，而且反弹幅度很小，
07:29 - 07:33
EN: lasting only a bar or two, you cannot make money looking to buy.
ZH: 反弹只持续一两根K线， 那么做多就赚不到钱
07:33 - 07:34
EN: You should only look to sell.
ZH: 你应该只考虑做空
07:35 - 07:44
EN: Some expert traders will take some scalps, sell scalps in addition
ZH: 一些高手在做波段交易之外，也会做一些剥头皮， 但一定是顺着趋势方向做的
07:40 - 07:44
EN: to their swing scalps, but they’ll only be trading in the direction of the trend.
ZH: 一些高手在做波段交易之外，也会做一些剥头皮， 但一定是顺着趋势方向做的
07:44 - 07:46
EN: In this case, they’ll be selling.
ZH: 遇到这种行情，他们会做空
07:49 - 07:52
EN: Here, this pullback went above this breakout point,
ZH: 这里，反弹高于突破点
07:52 - 07:55
EN: and therefore now we’re in a stairs pattern.
ZH: 因此，现在市场处于阶梯形模式
07:55 - 07:58
EN: We’re stair stepping down, and the pullbacks are overlapping breakout points.
ZH: 向走楼梯一样地下跌，反弹和突破点有重叠
07:58 - 08:02
EN: When that’s the case, expert bull scalpers will look to buy a new low,
ZH: 这个时候，剥头皮的高手会在新低买入，
08:02 - 08:05
EN: and they’re willing to scale in, betting that the pullback
ZH: 并且愿意逢低加仓买入更多
08:05 - 08:08
EN: from the breakout will rally back above the new low.
ZH: 押注反弹会回到突破点的上方
08:09 - 08:12
EN: Once they see a pullback going above a breakout point
ZH: 一旦他们看到反弹高于突破点
08:12 - 08:16
EN: and they see a weak rally like this, a weak selloff like this
ZH: 再看到上涨之后的下降趋势很弱——
08:16 - 08:19
EN: - bear bar, doji, bear bar, bull bar, bear bar, doji
ZH: 阴线，十字星，阴线，阳线，阴线，十字星
08:20 - 08:22
EN: - this looks like a bear leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: ——看起来像是震荡区间中的下跌波段
08:22 - 08:26
EN: Some expert traders will place a limit order
ZH: 一些高手会在那个低点挂限价买单，打算做剥头皮交易
08:24 - 08:26
EN: to buy at that low, looking for a scalp.
ZH: 一些高手会在那个低点挂限价买单，打算做剥头皮交易
08:30 - 08:32
EN: We went back above the breakout point.
ZH: 回到了突破点的上方
08:32 - 08:34
EN: They’ll do it again on the next leg down.
ZH: 再次下跌的时候，他们会继续这么做
08:34 - 08:36
EN: They’ll place a limit order to buy at that low.
ZH: 他们会在那个低点的下方挂限价买单
08:36 - 08:40
EN: If it goes lower, they’ll buy more lower, and they’re looking for just a scalp.
ZH: 如果继续下跌，他们会在更低的位置加仓， 他们只打算做剥头皮交易
08:44 - 08:46
EN: They buy, they take a scalp profit.
ZH: 买入，赚快钱，离场
08:46 - 08:48
EN: They buy, they take a scalp profit.
ZH: 买入，赚快钱，离场
08:50 - 08:55
EN: In general, they’re going to be looking to exit somewhere
ZH: 通常，他们会在左边这个下跌波段的当中止盈离场
08:53 - 08:55
EN: in the middle of the prior bear leg
ZH: 通常，他们会在左边这个下跌波段的当中止盈离场
08:55 - 08:58
EN: because that’s where the bear traders will be selling.
ZH: 因为空头会在那个地方开始卖出
08:58 - 09:01
EN: Whenever you’re in a bear trend that’s stair stepping down,
ZH: 当市场处于阶梯下跌的时候，
09:01 - 09:05
EN: bears will look to sell around a 50% pullback from the last leg down.
ZH: 空头会在上一个下跌波段的50%反弹卖出做空
Slide 006
Time: 09:08
Bilingual Transcript
09:09 - 09:12
EN: A scalp means a small profit.
ZH: 剥头皮意味着利润小
09:15 - 09:16
EN: We’re in a bear trend.
ZH: 市场处于下降趋势
09:16 - 09:19
EN: We have consecutive bear bars here.
ZH: 这里有连续的阴线
09:19 - 09:21
EN: A big bar, climactic.
ZH: 大阴线，抛售高潮
09:21 - 09:25
EN: Might not be much more down, but it’s okay to sell the close looking for a scalp
ZH: 剩余的跌幅可能不多了，但仍然可以在它的收盘开仓做空、剥头皮
09:25 - 09:27
EN: - and this would be your minimum scalp, maybe a couple points.
ZH: 这是剥头皮的最小利润目标
09:27 - 09:30
EN: You exit 2 points down from that close.
ZH: 赚两个点离场
09:32 - 09:38
EN: When a trader sees this, he correctly assumes the market’s
ZH: 当交易者看到这种行情，他正确地判断了市场至少还会再下跌一些
09:36 - 09:39
EN: going to go at least a little bit lower, and therefore he can sell for a scalp.
ZH: 当交易者看到这种行情，他正确地判断了市场至少还会再下跌一些 所以他可以做空、剥头皮
09:43 - 09:45
EN: Two legs up, one, pullback, two.
ZH: 两段上涨——1，回调，2
09:45 - 09:47
EN: 50% pullback of this breakout.
ZH: 空头突破的50%反弹
09:47 - 09:51
EN: Traders will sell below that bear bar, at least for a scalp,
ZH: 空头会在那个阴线下方卖出，至少可以剥头皮
09:51 - 09:53
EN: knowing that this is fairly climactic.
ZH: 因为这是很强烈的抛售高潮
09:53 - 09:55
EN: Maybe we’ll enter a Trading Range.
ZH: 大概率会开始进入震荡区间
09:55 - 09:57
EN: Maybe there’s not much more down.
ZH: 不会再有太大的跌幅了
09:57 - 10:01
EN: We have a strong bull reversal, and the bar after it has a bull body.
ZH: 多头强势反转上涨，跟随的K线也是阳线
10:01 - 10:03
EN: That is good follow-through buying,
ZH: 这是很好的跟随
10:03 - 10:06
EN: and therefore the odds are we’ll go up at least a little bit higher.
ZH: 因此有很高的概率，至少还会再涨一些
10:06 - 10:09
EN: Bulls will buy that close looking for a scalp.
ZH: 多头会在它的收盘买入剥头皮
10:09 - 10:13
EN: We have a fifth bull bar, but it’s the second follow-through bar,
ZH: 连续5根阳线，第2个跟随的阳线
10:13 - 10:16
EN: and the bears are trying to reverse down – a failed breakout above this high,
ZH: 空头正在尝试向下反转——突破这个高点失败，
10:16 - 10:19
EN: a Double Top with the top of that Sell Climax.
ZH: 和抛售高潮的起跌点形成双顶
10:19 - 10:22
EN: Chances are buyers below and at least a little bit more up,
ZH: 大概率在下方有买盘，押注至少有小的第2段上涨
10:22 - 10:26
EN: so traders will buy with a limit order at the low of that bull bar,
ZH: 所以多头会在那个阳线的低点挂限价买单
10:26 - 10:28
EN: and they’ll get filled here, and they scalp out here.
ZH: 订单会在这里成交，然后在这里快速止盈离场
10:33 - 10:37
EN: It looks easy, but the reality is most traders cannot do this.
ZH: 看起来很简单，但现实是大多数交易者无法做到这一点
10:37 - 10:40
EN: They’ll make too many mistakes and they’ll end up losing money.
ZH: 他们会犯太多错误，导致最终亏钱
10:42 - 10:47
EN: If you can do it flawlessly, if you’re an expert trader, sure, you can do this.
ZH: 如果你是高手，可以完美无瑕地做到这些， 那你当然可以赚钱
10:47 - 10:50
EN: But if you’re starting out, this is not the way to trade.
ZH: 但如果你刚开始交易，这不是一个好的做法
10:50 - 10:53
EN: You’ll make too many mistakes, and to make money,
ZH: 你会犯太多错误
10:53 - 10:55
EN: you need a very high probability of success,
ZH: 但是剥头皮需要很高的成功率才能赚钱
10:55 - 10:58
EN: and that means you cannot make mistakes.
ZH: 这意味着你不能犯错
Slide 007
Time: 11:00
Bilingual Transcript
11:06 - 11:09
EN: Remember, a scalp, you’re going for a small profit.
ZH: 一定要记住，剥头皮交易，你的目标是小利润
11:09 - 11:12
EN: Some traders will use wide stops and scale in – so for example,
ZH: 一些交易者会使用较宽的初始止损并且加仓——
11:12 - 11:16
EN: a bull might buy this low and put a stop down here,
ZH: 比如，一个多头可能会在这个低点买入， 然后把止损放在这里
11:16 - 11:18
EN: betting that either it’s going to be the start
ZH: 押注这要么反转变成上涨趋势
11:18 - 11:20
EN: of a bull trend or the start of a Trading Range.
ZH: 要么变成震荡区间
11:20 - 11:24
EN: If it’s the start of a Trading Range, we could get a very deep pullback,
ZH: 如果是震荡区间，就可能会有很深的回调
11:24 - 11:26
EN: but it should stay above this low.
ZH: 但回调不应该跌破这个低点
11:26 - 11:29
EN: He might buy for any reason up here, use a stop down here,
ZH: 他可能会出于任何理由在这里买入，止损放在这里，
11:29 - 11:32
EN: and he’s willing to scale in lower.
ZH: 然后愿意逢低加仓买入更多
11:34 - 11:38
EN: If you use a very tight stop, then your risk is very small.
ZH: 如果你用非常窄的止损，那么你的风险就非常小
11:38 - 11:42
EN: Since your reward is also small, you need a very high probability of success,
ZH: 由于利润也很小，所以你需要非常高的成功率
11:42 - 11:47
EN: like a 90% probability of winning, and beginners simply cannot trade that well.
ZH: 比如90%的胜率——新手根本不可能做得这么好
11:49 - 11:54
EN: Another problem with a tight stop
ZH: 窄止损的问题就在于胜率不会很高
11:51 - 11:54
EN: is that the probability is not going to be very high.
ZH: 窄止损的问题就在于胜率不会很高
11:54 - 11:59
EN: In general, the tighter the stop, the smaller the risk, the lower the probability.
ZH: 通常来说，止损越窄，风险越小，胜率越低
11:59 - 12:01
EN: And that’s a problem when you’re scalping
ZH: 这就是剥头皮交易的问题
12:01 - 12:04
EN: because you need high probability to make money.
ZH: 因为你需要很高的胜率才能赚钱
12:04 - 12:08
EN: Tight stops when you’re scalping, in general, it’s a bad idea.
ZH: 剥头皮的时候用很窄的止损，通常是坏主意
12:08 - 12:11
EN: If you are scalping, it’s better to use a wider stop
ZH: 剥头皮的时候最好用较宽的初始止损
12:11 - 12:14
EN: and trade small enough so that you can scale in.
ZH: 并且仓位要很小，这样才有空间加仓
12:15 - 12:20
EN: That increases your probability, and it makes up for the low reward.
ZH: 这会增加你的胜率，弥补利润的不足
12:23 - 12:28
EN: I want to talk a little bit about what the realistic minimum profit target
ZH: 接下来我想讲一讲剥头皮的最低利润目标是多少
12:27 - 12:28
EN: is when you’re scalping.
ZH: 接下来我想讲一讲剥头皮的最低利润目标是多少
12:31 - 12:35
EN: There is a realistic minimum size when you’re scalping.
ZH: 剥头皮存在一个现实的最小目标
12:35 - 12:39
EN: If you scalp for a profit that’s very, very small, commissions,
ZH: 如果你的利润非常非常小，
Slide 008
Time: 12:35
Bilingual Transcript
12:39 - 12:43
EN: slippage, mistakes will make it impossible to make money.
ZH: 那么佣金、滑点和失误会让你无法盈利
Slide 009
Time: 12:44
Bilingual Transcript
12:46 - 12:53
EN: I have several guidelines that I use to determine
ZH: 不论是什么市场和品种， 我有一个指南来帮助我确定剥头皮的最小目标是多少
12:49 - 12:53
EN: what’s the smallest scalp I’ll try to get in any particular market.
ZH: 不论是什么市场和品种， 我有一个指南来帮助我确定剥头皮的最小目标是多少
12:56 - 13:02
EN: For the Emini and bond futures, I only scalp for at least 4 to 8 ticks.
ZH: 标普股指期货和国债期货，我的目标至少是4~8个ticks
13:03 - 13:08
EN: Trading the Forex market, and I think a trade will probably make 5 or 6 pips,
ZH: 在做外汇的时候，如果我认为一笔交易只能赚5~6 pips
13:08 - 13:11
EN: I will not take that trade if that’s all I think it will make.
ZH: 我就不会开仓
13:11 - 13:16
EN: I will only take the trade
ZH: 只有当我认为有机会赚至少10~20 pips的时候， 我才会开仓进行交易
13:13 - 13:16
EN: if I think there’s a realistic chance of making 10 to 20 pips.
ZH: 只有当我认为有机会赚至少10~20 pips的时候， 我才会开仓进行交易
13:17 - 13:20
EN: For stocks and commodities, the smallest trade
ZH: 对于股票和商品期货，
13:20 - 13:23
EN: that I’ll ever take is 10 to 20 ticks.
ZH: 最小目标是10~20个ticks
13:23 - 13:26
EN: I sometimes end up exiting with less than that,
ZH: 当然，最终离场的时候可能达不到这么多利润，
13:26 - 13:30
EN: but I do not take a trade unless I plan on taking that much.
ZH: 但那是开仓之前计划的目标，否则就不会交易
13:30 - 13:34
EN: If, after I enter, I think my premise is wrong, I’ll get out,
ZH: 如果在入场之后，我认为我的前提是错误的，我就会离场
13:34 - 13:38
EN: and sometimes I’ll get out with 2 or 3 ticks profit or 2 or 3 ticks loss.
ZH: 有时候会赚或亏2~3个ticks离场
13:38 - 13:41
EN: But as soon as I think my premise is wrong, I get out.
ZH: 只要我认为我的前提已经不再成立，我就会离场
13:41 - 13:44
EN: Another guideline is if I’m scalping,
ZH: 另一个指南是，如果我在做剥头皮，
13:44 - 13:49
EN: my minimum trade has to be at least 5% to 10% of an average day’s range.
ZH: 最小目标必须至少是平均日内振幅的5~10%
13:50 - 13:53
EN: For example, if I’m trading a Forex market
ZH: 例如，如果我在做外汇
13:53 - 13:55
EN: and the average day’s range is 100 pips,
ZH: 平均日内振幅是100 pips
13:56 - 13:59
EN: I do not want to be scalping for anything less than 10 pips.
ZH: 那么我就不会做小于10 pips的交易
13:59 - 14:02
EN: That’s already my minimum for Forex markets as well.
ZH: 那也是我在外汇市场的最低目标
14:07 - 14:10
EN: When I’m scalping on a 5-minute chart – for example, in the Emini
ZH: 当我在5分钟图上剥头皮的时候——例如在ES中，
14:10 - 14:13
EN: - the average bar is only 1 or 2 points tall,
ZH: ——K线的平均大小只有一两个点
14:13 - 14:17
EN: and I scalp for 1 or 2 points and I hold for 1 to 5 bars.
ZH: 所以我的目标也是一两个点，我会持有1~5根K线
14:17 - 14:19
EN: Sometimes I’ll hold longer.
ZH: 有时我会持仓更久
14:19 - 14:21
EN: Sometimes I’ll turn a scalp into a swing trade
ZH: 有时我会把剥头皮交易变成波段交易
14:21 - 14:24
EN: or part of the trade into a swing trade.
ZH: 或者止盈一部分，剩下的仓位做波段
14:24 - 14:31
EN: But my general expectation when I’m scalping on a 5-minute Emini chart
ZH: 总之在ES剥头皮的时候，我通常期望利润至少是1
2个点 （注：也就是48 ticks；1个点 = 4个ticks）
14:28 - 14:31
EN: is to get out with a 1 to 2 point profit,
ZH: 总之在ES剥头皮的时候，我通常期望利润至少是1
2个点 （注：也就是48 ticks；1个点 = 4个ticks）
14:31 - 14:34
EN: and I usually get out within 1 to 5 bars.
ZH: 而且我通常在1到5根K线内离场
14:38 - 14:40
EN: Rarely, if you’re trading the Emini,
ZH: 交易ES的时候，非常偶尔，
14:40 - 14:44
EN: you’ll get a lot of bars that are 5 points tall or more.
ZH: 某些天会有很多大于5个点的大K线 （注：偶尔波动率很高的时候）
14:44 - 14:49
EN: When that’s the case, I’m not scalping for 1 point; I’m scalping for 5 points.
ZH: 在这种情况下，我剥头皮的目标不再是1个点，而是5个点 （注：再次强调，这是2018年，标普只有2000多点）
14:49 - 14:53
EN: I want to be scalping for about the size of the average bar.
ZH: 我剥头皮的目标大约是K线的平均大小
14:55 - 15:02
EN: If the actual risk is small, if the bars are small and the legs are small,
ZH: 如果实际风险很小，K线很小，波段很小，比如像这一天
15:00 - 15:07
EN: like on this particular day, I think scalping
ZH: 如果实际风险很小，K线很小，波段很小，比如像这一天 那么我认为剥头皮赚1~2个点是可以的
15:03 - 15:07
EN: for 1 to 2 points is fine – if you are a scalper.
ZH: 那么我认为剥头皮赚1~2个点是可以的
15:07 - 15:09
EN: Most traders should not scalp.
ZH: 大多数交易者不应该做剥头皮
15:09 - 15:10
EN: It’ll be too hard to make money.
ZH: 太难赚钱了
15:10 - 15:17
EN: Certainly too hard to make money for a career, and you have to make sure
ZH: 很难作为一个长期的职业， 而且你必须确保这种做法适合你的个性
15:15 - 15:17
EN: that it’s compatible with your personality.
ZH: 很难作为一个长期的职业， 而且你必须确保这种做法适合你的个性
15:17 - 15:18
EN: Will you enjoy it?
ZH: 你会感到享受吗？
15:18 - 15:21
EN: If you don’t enjoy it, don’t do it.
ZH: 如果不会，那就不要做
Slide 010
Time: 15:25
Bilingual Transcript
15:27 - 15:31
EN: When you’re looking at a chart and you’re not sure what the minimum scalp size is,
ZH: 如果你不确定剥头皮的最低目标是多少，
15:31 - 15:36
EN: make sure that it is at least as big as the height of average recent bars,
ZH: 那就确保至少和最近这些K线的平均大小一样大
15:36 - 15:40
EN: and at least 5% to 10% as big as the average daily range.
ZH: 并且至少是平均日内振幅的5~10%
15:42 - 15:46
EN: In this particular chart, the average bars are about 20 ticks tall,
ZH: 在这个案例中，K线的平均大小是20 ticks左右
15:47 - 15:51
EN: and the average daily range has been about 100 ticks.
ZH: 平均日内振幅是100 ticks
15:51 - 15:56
EN: Here, a reasonable minimum scalp would therefore be about 10 ticks.
ZH: 因此，在这里，一个合理的最低目标大约是10 ticks
16:00 - 16:05
EN: In general, I prefer traders to lean toward more swing trading.
ZH: 总的来说，我更希望交易者多做波段交易 （注：这是Al Brooks苦口婆心、反反复复强调的建议）
16:05 - 16:06
EN: You have two choices here.
ZH: 这里你有两个选择
16:06 - 16:11
EN: The recent bars are 20 ticks tall; 10% of the average daily range is 10 ticks.
ZH: 最近这些K线的大小是20 ticks； 平均日内振幅的10%是10 ticks
16:12 - 16:19
EN: I think it’s better to probably try to go for the larger of the two minimums,
ZH: 如果你想要剥头皮， 我认为最好是选择较大的那一个——也就是20 ticks
16:16 - 16:19
EN: which is 20 ticks, if you’re looking to scalp this chart.
ZH: 如果你想要剥头皮， 我认为最好是选择较大的那一个——也就是20 ticks
16:22 - 16:25
EN: Part of the reason for that is if the bars are 20 ticks tall,
ZH: 其中一个原因是，既然K线的平均大小是20 ticks，
16:25 - 16:28
EN: your stop is probably going to be at least 20 ticks away,
ZH: 那么你的止损至少会在20 ticks之外，
16:28 - 16:32
EN: and you want to be going for a reward that is at least as big as your risk.
ZH: 而你的利润至少应该和风险一样大
16:35 - 16:37
EN: I have some exceptions.
ZH: 有一些例外
16:37 - 16:41
EN: For example, in the Emini, I usually scalp for 4 ticks,
ZH: 例如，在ES中，我通常剥头皮赚4 ticks
16:41 - 16:44
EN: unless the range is relatively big and the bars are relatively big.
ZH: 如果某天波动较大、K线较大
16:44 - 16:46
EN: Then I’ll scalp for 2 points.
ZH: 那么我的目标就是8 ticks
16:46 - 16:51
EN: In the NASDAQ, 2 to 4 points is the minimum scalp, and for the bonds,
ZH: 纳斯达克期货，剥头皮的最小目标是2
4个点 （注：即816 ticks）
16:51 - 16:54
EN: bond futures, 4 to 8 ticks is the minimum scalp.
ZH: 而国债期货是4~8个ticks
16:54 - 16:57
EN: And it depends on how big the bars are.
ZH: 完全取决于当天的K线有多大
16:57 - 16:59
EN: If the bars are bigger, you go for the bigger target.
ZH: 如果K线更大，你就要随之放大目标
16:59 - 17:02
EN: If the bars are smaller, you go for the smaller target.
ZH: 如果K线更小，那么就缩小目标
Slide 011
Time: 17:05
Bilingual Transcript
17:06 - 17:09
EN: This is a 5-minute chart of the euro versus the dollar,
ZH: 这是欧元兑美元的5分钟图
17:09 - 17:11
EN: and here are a couple scalps.
ZH: 这里有一些剥头皮交易
17:11 - 17:15
EN: Buying the reversal up, and here’s a minimum scalp.
ZH: 做多押注反转，这是剥头皮的最低目标
17:15 - 17:17
EN: A bull flag, buying the breakout.
ZH: 牛旗，突破时买入
17:17 - 17:19
EN: Here’s the minimum scalp.
ZH: 最低目标在这里
17:24 - 17:26
EN: If your son or daughter is in college,
ZH: 如果你的儿子或女儿在读大学
17:26 - 17:29
EN: you know the minimum grade to graduate is a D.
ZH: 你知道毕业的最低成绩是D
17:29 - 17:31
EN: Would you be happy if your son proudly told you
ZH: 如果你的儿子自豪地跟你说：
17:31 - 17:35
EN: that his goal in life was to get a D or to make a minimum wage?
ZH: “爸爸，爸爸，我的人生目标是考试得D，毕业后赚最低工资” 你会感到高兴吗？
17:35 - 17:37
EN: Of course not.
ZH: 你会打他一顿
17:37 - 17:39
EN: And the same is true with trading.
ZH: 交易也是一样
17:39 - 17:42
EN: Going for the minimum is rarely ever the best choice.
ZH: 追求最低目标从来都不是最好的选择
17:46 - 17:48
EN: Successful traders who take 10 pip scalps,
ZH: 一些成功的交易员也会做10 pips的剥头皮，
17:48 - 17:54
EN: they do it only when it’s appropriate – and many days in the Forex markets,
ZH: 但他们是在特定的行情才会这样做—— 很多时候外汇市场都出于窄震荡区间，
17:52 - 17:58
EN: the markets are in fairly tight ranges, and if you’re going to trade,
ZH: 但他们是在特定的行情才会这样做—— 很多时候外汇市场都出于窄震荡区间， 这种时候剥头皮是唯一的赚钱方法
17:56 - 17:58
EN: the only way to make money is by scalping.
ZH: 这种时候剥头皮是唯一的赚钱方法
17:58 - 18:02
EN: Most traders should not trade when that is their only option.
ZH: 大部分交易者没必要去参与那种行情
18:02 - 18:04
EN: It’s too hard to do it,
ZH: 因为太难赚钱了
18:04 - 18:08
EN: plus most people do not have a personality that’s compatible with scalping.
ZH: 而且大多数人的个性不适合做剥头皮交易
18:08 - 18:09
EN: They get stressed out.
ZH: 他们会感到压力山大
18:09 - 18:11
EN: They feel too unhappy.
ZH: 他们会感到很难受
18:13 - 18:15
EN: This is very important.
ZH: 这非常重要
18:15 - 18:19
EN: I’ve never met a trader who’s making a living only going for minimum scalps.
ZH: 我从未见过一个靠最低目标谋生的剥头皮交易者
18:19 - 18:22
EN: I know a lot of very profitable scalpers.
ZH: 我认识很多赚大钱的剥头皮交易者
18:22 - 18:25
EN: I’ve met a lot of profitable scalpers over my 30 years.
ZH: 在我30多年的交易生涯中， 我遇到过无数稳定盈利的剥头皮交易者
18:25 - 18:29
EN: However, they do that as part of their overall plan,
ZH: 然而，那只是他们整体计划中的一部分，
18:29 - 18:33
EN: and they go for more than minimum scalps on most of their trades.
ZH: 绝大部分交易，他们追求的利润都远大于最低目标
18:33 - 18:38
EN: In other words, they’ll go for bigger scalps, so instead of 1 point in the Emini,
ZH: 他们会追求更大的目标，比如在ES中，
18:38 - 18:39
EN: they’ll go for 2 or 3 points.
ZH: 他们会追求2~3个点的剥头皮机会
18:39 - 18:43
EN: Instead of 10 pips in the Forex markets, they’ll go for 20 or 30 pips.
ZH: 做外汇的时候不是只赚10 pips，而是追求20~30 pips
18:43 - 18:45
EN: Or they’ll swing trade.
ZH: 或者他们做波段交易
18:45 - 18:52
EN: You should never try to make a living only going
ZH: 永远不要想着靠剥头皮的最低目标谋生， 因为那无法成功
18:48 - 18:52
EN: for minimum scalps because you will not succeed.
ZH: 永远不要想着靠剥头皮的最低目标谋生， 因为那无法成功
18:54 - 18:57
EN: I mentioned some of the problems with this earlier.
ZH: 我之前也提到了相关的问题
18:58 - 19:00
EN: There’s a spread that you have to overcome.
ZH: 你需要克服点差
19:00 - 19:02
EN: Some Forex brokers charge commissions.
ZH: 一些外汇平台也收取佣金（手续费）
19:02 - 19:04
EN: There’s also slippage.
ZH: 还会有滑点
19:04 - 19:08
EN: And the mistakes become a real big problem – and everybody makes mistakes.
ZH: 最大的问题是犯错的成本——每个人都会犯错
19:08 - 19:10
EN: Also, there are problems with the brokers and fills.
ZH: 此外，偶尔还有平台和订单成交的问题
19:11 - 19:15
EN: The result is that you need to win 90% of the trades consistently for years
ZH: 所以最终，如果你想靠最低目标谋生，
19:15 - 19:18
EN: if you’re trying to make a living going for minimum scalps.
ZH: 你需要连续很多年，稳定保持90%的胜率
19:18 - 19:23
EN: There are traders who can do that, but you should assume that you are not one.
ZH: 有人确实能做到这一点，但你应该假设你不是其中之一
19:23 - 19:28
EN: It’s a very rare trader who can do that and who is happy doing it.
ZH: 能做到这一点，并且享受这个过程的人，非常少
19:28 - 19:29
EN: You need both.
ZH: 你需要两者兼备
19:29 - 19:33
EN: You have to be happy as a trader because you’re trying to do this for a career,
ZH: 作为交易者，你必须开心，因为你尝试把它作为职业
19:33 - 19:35
EN: and your job has to be fun.
ZH: 而工作应该让你感到有趣 （注：否则和普通的打工有什么区别呢？）
Slide 012
Time: 19:40
Bilingual Transcript
19:41 - 19:44
EN: Again, I know traders who win 90% of the time.
ZH: 再次强调，我认识一些胜率稳定在90%的交易者
19:44 - 19:47
EN: That immediately tells you that they’re scalpers.
ZH: 其实这立刻就说明了他们是剥头皮交易者
19:47 - 19:52
EN: If you’re winning 90% of the time, you have to be going for a low reward
ZH: 如果你的胜率高达90%
19:52 - 19:56
EN: because a high probability of success means a bad risk/reward ratio,
ZH: 因为高胜率意味着盈亏比不会很好
19:56 - 19:57
EN: and that means that you’re scalping.
ZH: 这也意味着你在做剥头皮
19:57 - 19:59
EN: You’re going for very little reward.
ZH: 你追求的利润很小
20:00 - 20:04
EN: However, that does not mean they’re going for minimum profits.
ZH: 但利润小不代表就是最低目标
20:04 - 20:08
EN: For example, in the euro versus the dollar, they may be scalping,
ZH: 例如，欧元兑美元，他们可能在做剥头皮交易
20:08 - 20:11
EN: but they might be trying for 20 or 30 pips on their scalps.
ZH: 但他们剥头皮的目标是赚20~30 pips
20:15 - 20:19
EN: If you restrict yourself to only taking 10 pip scalps,
ZH: 如果你限制自己，只做10 pips的交易
20:19 - 20:22
EN: you could theoretically be profitable.
ZH: 理论上你可以盈利
20:22 - 20:24
EN: Paul Rotter was for many, many years.
ZH: Paul Rotter多年来都是如此 （注：前期课程提到过他，最传奇的剥头皮交易员）
20:24 - 20:26
EN: But it’s unrealistic.
ZH: 但这是不现实的
20:26 - 20:32
EN: Most people who try to make a living
ZH: 大多数尝试靠每次赚10 pips谋生的人是不会成功的
20:28 - 20:32
EN: with simply 10 pip scalps will not be successful.
ZH: 大多数尝试靠每次赚10 pips谋生的人是不会成功的
20:35 - 20:42
EN: Also, you have to be doing it successfully day after day,
ZH: 另外，你必须日复一日、年复一年地做到这一点， 还要能够享受这件事
20:39 - 20:42
EN: year after year, and you have to be happy doing it.
ZH: 另外，你必须日复一日、年复一年地做到这一点， 还要能够享受这件事
20:42 - 20:46
EN: I was an eye surgeon for many years, and I was very good at it,
ZH: 我做了很多年的眼科手术医生， 我非常擅长（切别人的眼球）
20:46 - 20:49
EN: and I made a lot of money doing it, but I was not happy.
ZH: 我通过它赚了很多钱，但我并不开心
20:49 - 20:50
EN: So I stopped doing it.
ZH: 所以我不干了
20:50 - 20:53
EN: And if you’re a scalper, it doesn’t matter if you’re very good at it;
ZH: 作为一个剥头皮交易者，不论你技术是否达标，
20:53 - 20:57
EN: if you’re not happy, you’re not going to want to do it for the rest of your life.
ZH: 如果你感到不开心，你就无法把它作为一生的事业
20:58 - 21:00
EN: You not only have to be good, but you have to be happy.
ZH: 不仅要擅长，还要感到快乐
21:01 - 21:04
EN: Very few traders have both of those things in their favor.
ZH: 很少有人同时符合这两种特质
21:09 - 21:13
EN: I’ve been talking about the profit target (a scalp) and probability,
ZH: 我一直在谈论剥头皮的利润目标和概率
21:13 - 21:17
EN: but there’s a third variable in the Trader’s Equation, and that is risk.
ZH: 但数学期望中还有第3个变量，那就是风险
Slide 013
Time: 21:20
Bilingual Transcript
21:21 - 21:24
EN: If you’re trading a Forex market like the euro versus the dollar,
ZH: 如果你在交易外汇，比如欧元兑美元
21:24 - 21:27
EN: you can usually use a 20 pip stop,
ZH: 你通常可以使用20 pips的止损
21:30 - 21:34
EN: but sometimes the bars are big and the swings are big.
ZH: 但有时K线很大，波动很大
21:34 - 21:37
EN: A 20 pip stop may not be reasonable.
ZH: 此时20 pips的止损可能不够合理
21:37 - 21:45
EN: You have to win 90% or more of your trades to overcome the risk
ZH: 想要稳定盈利，你的胜率必须高达90%才能克服风险， 这是不现实的
21:41 - 21:45
EN: that you need to trade profitably, and that’s just not realistic.
ZH: 想要稳定盈利，你的胜率必须高达90%才能克服风险， 这是不现实的
21:45 - 21:50
EN: It’s possible, but very few traders can do it and can do it happily.
ZH: 不是不可能，而是很少有人能开心地做到这一点
21:53 - 21:56
EN: When the bars are bigger, especially when there are a lot of reversals,
ZH: 当K线更大时，尤其有很多反转时，
Slide 014
Time: 21:55
Bilingual Transcript
21:56 - 22:01
EN: a trader needs to use wider stops or win 90% of the time.
ZH: 交易者需要使用更宽的止损，或者90%的交易都赚钱
22:01 - 22:02
EN: Otherwise he’s going to lose.
ZH: 否则就会亏钱
22:02 - 22:06
EN: And since winning 90% of the time is very difficult to do,
ZH: 由于90%的胜率非常难达到
22:06 - 22:13
EN: a scalper usually needs wider stops and usually they have to scale in
ZH: 所以想要稳定盈利， 剥头皮交易者通常需要更宽的止损，而且要加仓
22:11 - 22:13
EN: if they’re going to be consistently profitable.
ZH: 所以想要稳定盈利， 剥头皮交易者通常需要更宽的止损，而且要加仓
22:17 - 22:20
EN: If you cannot use the appropriate stop for whatever reason
ZH: 如果出于某个原因，你无法使用正确的止损——
22:20 - 22:22
EN: - if you’re scared, if your account size is too small
ZH: 比如账户太小，害怕亏钱——
22:22 - 22:27
EN: - just wait for a trade that would allow you to use the right stop.
ZH: 那就等待，等到可以使用正常止损的时候再交易
22:34 - 22:39
EN: One of the problems going for minimum reward is when the bars are big,
ZH: 追求最低目标的问题之一是，当K线很大时，
22:39 - 22:43
EN: your risk is big, and even if you’re winning 70% of the time,
ZH: 你的风险很大，就算70%的交易都盈利，
22:43 - 22:47
EN: at the end of the day you see your account is either breakeven
ZH: 但是在收盘之后，你会发现你今天要么总体是打平，
22:47 - 22:49
EN: or even losing money, and you’re asking yourself,
ZH: 甚至可能亏损； 所以你会问自己：
22:49 - 22:54
EN: “Gosh, I won 70% of my trades today, and I did not make any money.”
ZH: “苍天啊，我今天胜率高达70%，为什么还赚不到钱”
22:54 - 22:56
EN: And the problem is risk.
ZH: 问题就出在风险
22:56 - 23:01
EN: If the risk is big and you’re going for too small of a profit, that’s the result.
ZH: 如果风险很大，而利润太小，结果就是这样
23:01 - 23:05
EN: You’re going to end up having a very difficult time making money.
ZH: 最终很难赚钱
23:08 - 23:11
EN: This is a 60-minute chart of the Emini.
ZH: 这是ES的60分钟图
Slide 015
Time: 23:10
Bilingual Transcript
23:15 - 23:19
EN: The average bar on the 60-minute chart might be about 5 points,
ZH: 在60分钟图上，K线的平均大小是5个点左右
23:19 - 23:22
EN: and therefore if you’re looking to scalp on a 60-minute chart,
ZH: 因此，如果你打算在60分钟图上做剥头皮交易
23:22 - 23:24
EN: you should be going for about 5 points
ZH: 你的最小目标应该是5个点左右
23:24 - 23:28
EN: and you should expect to exit within 1 to 5 bars.
ZH: 并且你应该预期在1到5根K线内离场
23:28 - 23:31
EN: 5 bars on a 60-minute chart is 5 hours.
ZH: 60分钟图上的5根K线，就是5个小时
23:31 - 23:32
EN: It’s still a scalp.
ZH: 这仍然是剥头皮交易
23:35 - 23:37
EN: Strong bull breakout and follow-through.
ZH: 强势的多头突破，有跟随
23:37 - 23:39
EN: You can buy the close of the second big bull trend bar
ZH: 你可以在第2根大阳线的收盘买入
23:39 - 23:42
EN: or the close of the bar afterwards.
ZH: 或者在后一根阳线的收盘买入
23:42 - 23:47
EN: Place a limit order to get out with a 5-point profit, a stop below.
ZH: 在上方挂好5个点的止盈限价卖单， 止损放在下面
23:47 - 23:50
EN: Your reward is much smaller than your risk,
ZH: 你的利润远小于风险
23:50 - 23:53
EN: but the probability of the market going up at least a little bit is high.
ZH: 但市场至少再上涨一些的概率很高
23:57 - 23:58
EN: We have a Triangle.
ZH: 三角形
23:58 - 24:06
EN: You can call it a Wedge – three pushes down, one, two or two,
ZH: 你可以说它是楔形底——3次向下推动—— 1，2，或2，然后3，尝试反转上涨
24:02 - 24:06
EN: and then three, trying to reverse up here.
ZH: 你可以说它是楔形底——3次向下推动—— 1，2，或2，然后3，尝试反转上涨
24:06 - 24:09
EN: A Triangle is a BreakOut Mode situation,
ZH: 三角形是一种突破模式
24:09 - 24:13
EN: and that means there’s only a 50% chance that a breakout will be successful.
ZH: 这意味着突破成功的概率只有50%
24:14 - 24:17
EN: If you buy above the high of this bull bar, only a 50% chance
ZH: 如果你在这个阳线的高点上方买入，只有50%的概率
24:17 - 24:20
EN: it’s going to go up high enough for you to make a profitable trade,
ZH: 会有足够的涨幅让你盈利，
24:20 - 24:22
EN: and 50% chance it will not.
ZH: 50%的概率不会
24:22 - 24:24
EN: It will either continue sideways or it will reverse.
ZH: 要么继续横盘，要么下跌
24:28 - 24:32
EN: It looks like a good buy – a Wedge, one, two, three, four;
ZH: 这看起来是一个不错的做多机会—— 楔形，1，2，3，4
24:32 - 24:36
EN: a good looking bull bar, a Triangle, you’re buying above its high
ZH: 漂亮的阳线，三角形，你在它的高点上方买入
24:36 - 24:39
EN: - yet you lost immediately on the very next bar.
ZH: 然而你在下一根K线立即被止损
24:39 - 24:41
EN: On your entry bar, you lost.
ZH: 刚刚入场就止损了
24:44 - 24:46
EN: Now we have 2 consecutive bear bars.
ZH: 现在有连续两根阴线
24:46 - 24:48
EN: Probably going lower.
ZH: 大概率会继续下跌
24:48 - 24:52
EN: Scalpers will sell that close and look to scalp out.
ZH: 剥头皮交易者会在它的收盘做空，打算剥头皮赚快钱
24:54 - 24:58
EN: I call this bar a Give-up Bar, and this bar as well.
ZH: 我称这根K线为放弃K线，这根K线也是
24:58 - 25:01
EN: It went below the low of this buy signal bar,
ZH: 它跌破了这个做多信号K线的低点
25:01 - 25:03
EN: and these 2 bars are caused by bulls giving up.
ZH: 这两根K线是由于多头放弃而形成的
25:04 - 25:07
EN: And when you have trapped bulls like that, there’s a 60% chance
ZH: 当出现这样的多头陷阱时，有60%的概率
25:07 - 25:09
EN: you’ll get at least a small second leg down,
ZH: 至少会有小的第2段下跌
25:09 - 25:13
EN: and therefore selling this close is a high probability trade
ZH: 因此在它的收盘做空是一笔高胜率的交易
25:13 - 25:15
EN: that you’ll get at least a small profit,
ZH: 至少可以赚一些小钱
25:15 - 25:17
EN: and therefore it’s a high probability scalp.
ZH: 因此这是一笔高胜率的剥头皮交易
Slide 016
Time: 25:20
Bilingual Transcript
25:22 - 25:25
EN: This is a 5-minute chart of the Emini.
ZH: 这是ES的5分钟图
25:25 - 25:29
EN: Let’s say you bought this close and you decided to exit with a 2-tick profit.
ZH: 假设你在它的收盘买入，并且决定赚2 ticks离场
25:30 - 25:36
EN: High probability of making 2 ticks,
ZH: 你能够赚到2 ticks的概率非常高
25:32 - 25:36
EN: and it’s very high probability that you’ll make 2 ticks.
ZH: 你能够赚到2 ticks的概率非常高
25:36 - 25:37
EN: Well, what’s the problem with that?
ZH: 那么，这有什么问题呢？
25:42 - 25:44
EN: One of the problems is commissions.
ZH: 问题之一是手续费
25:45 - 25:48
EN: Commissions in general are relatively small,
ZH: 手续费通常来说是很便宜的
25:48 - 25:52
EN: but if the profit target is small as well,
ZH: 但如果利润目标也很小
25:52 - 25:54
EN: then the commissions can be relatively big.
ZH: 那么手续费的占比就变大了
25:57 - 26:03
EN: Let’s say your broker charges you a $4 commission
ZH: 假设一来一回你的平台收取4美元的手续费—— 买入收$2，卖出收收$2
25:59 - 26:03
EN: for a round turn – $2 to buy, $2 to sell.
ZH: 假设一来一回你的平台收取4美元的手续费—— 买入收$2，卖出收收$2
26:03 - 26:06
EN: And then let’s say you go for a 2-tick scalp.
ZH: 然后假设你做2 ticks的剥头皮交易
26:07 - 26:10
EN: 2 ticks in the Emini is a $25 profit.
ZH: ES中2个ticks就是25美元的利润
26:11 - 26:16
EN: Here, you buy that close, you exit with 2 ticks, you made $25
ZH: 你在它的收盘买入，赚2 ticks离场，利润是$25
26:16 - 26:22
EN: - but you had to pay a $4 commission, and therefore your net profit was $21.
ZH: ——但你要支付$4的手续费，因此你的净利润是$21
26:22 - 26:25
EN: On the other hand, let’s say you use a 2 tick stop,
ZH: 另外，假设你设置的止损也是2 ticks
26:25 - 26:29
EN: and the market went down and hit your stop before it hit your profit target.
ZH: 而市场在涨到目标之前，先下跌打到了止损
26:30 - 26:34
EN: Instead of winning $25, you lose $25.
ZH: 所以亏了$25
26:34 - 26:40
EN: You still have that $4 commission, so every time you lose, you lose $29.
ZH: 你还是要付$4的手续费，所以每次亏的时候亏$29
26:40 - 26:43
EN: Every time you win, you win $21.
ZH: 每次赚的时候赚$21
26:44 - 26:47
EN: That reward is much smaller than your risk.
ZH: 利润远小于风险 （注：利润/风险约等于3/4，即赚3赔4）
26:48 - 26:50
EN: How can you make money doing that?
ZH: 这样怎么能赚钱呢？
26:50 - 26:52
EN: You need a really high winning percentage,
ZH: 你需要一个非常高的胜率
26:52 - 26:56
EN: well over 90%, and that’s simply unrealistic.
ZH: 要远超过90%，而这是不现实的
Slide 017
Time: 27:00
Bilingual Transcript
27:02 - 27:06
EN: Let’s say you took 10 trades and you won 60% of the time.
ZH: 假设你做了10笔交易，并且60%胜率
27:07 - 27:12
EN: Since you’re winning $21 for every win on 2 tick scalps,
ZH: 剥头皮，每次赚2 ticks，也就是$21
27:12 - 27:17
EN: your net profit would be $126, and you lost only four times.
ZH: 总利润就是$126； 你只亏损了4次，
27:17 - 27:20
EN: But you’re losing $29 on each loss,
ZH: 但每次亏$29
27:20 - 27:24
EN: and your total loss is $116 from your four losers.
ZH: 总亏损是$116 （注：净利润 = 126 - 116 = 10美金）
27:29 - 27:34
EN: If you’re right even 60% of the time, there’s no margin for error.
ZH: 即使你的胜率有60%，也仍然没有犯错的余地
27:34 - 27:36
EN: You’re barely making a profit.
ZH: 因为你几乎没有盈利 （注：随便犯个小错，就变成亏钱了）
27:36 - 27:40
EN: You have to be right 80% to 90% of the time to make a living,
ZH: 要想以此为生，你的胜率必须要有80~90%
27:40 - 27:41
EN: and that’s just unrealistic.
ZH: 而那是不现实的
27:41 - 27:45
EN: Going for a 2-tick scalp is just not worth doing.
ZH: 所以不值得去做2 ticks的剥头皮
27:45 - 27:47
EN: You cannot do it profitably.
ZH: 没有办法稳定盈利
27:47 - 27:55
EN: And that’s why I say there’s a realistic minimum scalp size, and for the Emini,
ZH: 这就是为什么我说ES中，剥头皮的最低目标是1或2个点 (即4~8 ticks)
27:52 - 27:55
EN: the realistic minimum is 1 point, maybe 2 points.
ZH: 这就是为什么我说ES中，剥头皮的最低目标是1或2个点 (即4~8 ticks)
27:58 - 28:01
EN: Here’s a 60-minute chart of the euro versus the dollar.
ZH: 这是欧元兑美元的60分钟图
Slide 018
Time: 28:00
Bilingual Transcript
28:04 - 28:08
EN: The average bar on the 60-minute chart is about 50 pips,
ZH: 图上K线的平均大小是50 pips左右
28:08 - 28:13
EN: and therefore a scalp is 50 pips.
ZH: 因此最低目标是50 pips，或更多
28:11 - 28:13
EN: 50 pips or more.
ZH: 因此最低目标是50 pips，或更多
28:14 - 28:19
EN: For example, if you buy this failed bear breakout – it’s a Higher Low
ZH: 例如，假设你买入，押注空头突破失败—— 低点抬高——
28:20 - 28:25
EN: - and exit with 50 pips, you’re exiting right here, and that’s a good location.
ZH: 然后赚50 pips离场，就在这里，不错的位置
28:25 - 28:27
EN: You’re at the top of a possible Trading Range.
ZH: 这可能是震荡区间的顶部
28:30 - 28:33
EN: For the bears, they see a Double Top at the top of a Trading Range,
ZH: 在空头的视角里，他们在震荡区间的顶部看到一个双顶
28:33 - 28:35
EN: maybe a Lower High versus this high.
ZH: 对于这个高点而言，高点降低了
28:35 - 28:37
EN: They have a strong bear breakout.
ZH: 强势的大阴线突破
28:37 - 28:39
EN: They see this as a pullback from that strong bear breakout.
ZH: 他们把这看作是空头突破后的反弹
28:39 - 28:42
EN: Does not matter that this is a little bit above that;
ZH: 它略高于它，没关系，
28:42 - 28:45
EN: it’s still a two-legged pullback from this bear breakout,
ZH: 仍然是这个空头突破后的两段式反弹
28:45 - 28:49
EN: and you have a good bear bar, a Low 2 short – Low 1, Low 2
ZH: 并且有好的阴线，是低2做空入场点——低1，低2
28:49 - 28:54
EN: either in a Trading Range or possibly in a bear trend.
ZH: 市场要么处于震荡区间，要么处于下降趋势
28:54 - 28:55
EN: A Double Top Lower High.
ZH: 高点降低的双顶
28:55 - 28:57
EN: It might be the start of a bear trend.
ZH: 可能是下降趋势的开始
28:57 - 29:00
EN: Some traders will sell below the low of that bear bar
ZH: 一些交易者会在那个阴线的低点下方卖出
29:00 - 29:01
EN: and they’ll get filled right here.
ZH: 订单会在这里成交
29:01 - 29:04
EN: If they’re a scalper, they’ll place a limit order
ZH: 如果是剥头皮交易者，他们会在下面50 pips的地方
29:04 - 29:07
EN: to buy back their shorts 50 pips down, which is right here
ZH: 挂限价买单止盈离场，就在这里
29:07 - 29:11
EN: - a good location near the bottom of a possible Trading Range.
ZH: 可能是震荡区间的底部，合理的止盈位置
29:13 - 29:17
EN: A big bear breakout, probably going to get at least a couple legs down.
ZH: 大阴线跌破，大概率至少会有小的第2段下跌
29:19 - 29:22
EN: Traders might sell below the low of that bull bar
ZH: 交易者会在那个阳线的低点下方卖出
29:22 - 29:25
EN: or below the low of this bear bar, a second entry short,
ZH: 或在这个阴线的低点下方卖出，它是第2做空入场点
29:25 - 29:28
EN: and exit with a 50-pip profit down here.
ZH: 然后在这里赚到了50 pips离场
Slide 019
Time: 29:35
Bilingual Transcript
29:35 - 29:39
EN: This is a 5-minute chart of the euro versus the dollar,
ZH: 这是欧元兑美元的5分钟图
29:39 - 29:45
EN: and let’s say you’re thinking about scalping for 6 pips using 100,000 units.
ZH: 假设你想做6 pips的剥头皮，仓位是100,000手，
29:46 - 29:47
EN: Some brokers charge commissions.
ZH: 一些平台收手续费
29:47 - 29:50
EN: All brokers require you to pay a bid/ask spread.
ZH: 所有平台都要求你支付点差
29:50 - 29:54
EN: Most of the time, the cost is relatively small.
ZH: 大多数情况下，成本相对较小
29:55 - 29:59
EN: However, if the profit target is also small, like 6 pips,
ZH: 然而，如果利润目标也很小，比如只有6 pips
29:59 - 30:01
EN: then the commission becomes relatively big.
ZH: 那么费用的占比就会变得很大
30:04 - 30:09
EN: Suppose you’re risking 6 pips to make 6 pips and you’re trading 100,000 units.
ZH: 假设你冒6 pips的风险，利润目标也是6 pips， 并且仓位是100,000手
30:09 - 30:14
EN: And let’s say your broker has a bid/ask spread of 2 pips each way.
ZH: 假设你的平台出价和要加之间有2 pips的点差
30:15 - 30:18
EN: Then you need an 8 pip move to make 6 pips.
ZH: 那么你就需要价格移动8 pips，才能赚到6 pips
30:19 - 30:24
EN: You need your 6 pips profit, and then you have 2 pips bid/ask spread buying
ZH: 你的目标是赚6 pips，在你买入的时候有2 pips的点差，
30:24 - 30:26
EN: and 2 pips bid/ask spread selling,
ZH: 卖出的时候也有2 pips的点差
30:27 - 30:30
EN: and therefore you need an 8 pip move to make 6 pips.
ZH: 因此你需要8 pips的波动，才能赚到6 pips
30:30 - 30:33
EN: If you win on 6 of your 10 trades,
ZH: 假设10笔交易中有6笔盈利
30:33 - 30:38
EN: each win is 6 pips times $10 a pip – you made $60.
ZH: 每次盈利是6 pips * 每个 pip $10——总利润是$60
30:38 - 30:41
EN: Each loser is 8 pips, not just 6 pips,
ZH: 每次亏损是8 pips，不仅仅是6 pips
30:41 - 30:46
EN: because you have your 2 pip bid/ask spread buying and again selling.
ZH: 因为每次买卖都有2 pips的点差
30:46 - 30:50
EN: And that means your average loser is going to be about $80.
ZH: 这意味着你的平均亏损大约是$80
30:50 - 30:52
EN: Average winner is $60.
ZH: 而平均盈利是$60
Slide 020
Time: 30:55
Bilingual Transcript
30:57 - 31:00
EN: And let’s say you take 10 trades and you win 60% of the time,
ZH: 假设你一共做了10笔交易，胜率为60%
31:00 - 31:02
EN: so you win six trades.
ZH: 也就是其中6笔交易盈利
31:02 - 31:07
EN: Your average win is $6, so you make $360 from the winners,
ZH: 平均利润是$60，所以总利润是$360
31:07 - 31:14
EN: but your average loss is $80 times four losers, so you lost $320 from your losers.
ZH: 但你的平均亏损是$80，再乘以4次亏损， 总亏损是$320
31:14 - 31:19
EN: Even though you won 60% of the time, you only made a very small profit.
ZH: 尽管你的胜率高达60%，最终只赚了一点点钱 （注：10笔交易的总利润 = 360 - 320 = 40美金）
31:21 - 31:25
EN: There’s no margin for mistakes when you’re going for a reward that’s too small.
ZH: 追求的利润太小，所以没有犯错的余地
31:25 - 31:30
EN: You need a success rate of 90% to make a living, and that’s unrealistic.
ZH: 你需要90%的成功率才能以此为生，而这是不现实的
31:30 - 31:33
EN: Plus you have to be happy, and that’s very hard to do.
ZH: 此外，你还必须感到快乐，这很难做到
31:33 - 31:38
EN: And therefore, there is a minimum scalp size, and you should never be scalping
ZH: 因此，剥头皮有最低的利润目标，
31:38 - 31:41
EN: for less than 10 pips – preferably less than 20 pips.
ZH: 永远不要做小于10 pips的剥头皮—— 最好不要小于20 pips
31:41 - 31:44
EN: And most traders should not be scalping for a living.
ZH: 大多数交易者不应该靠剥头皮交易谋生
31:44 - 31:45
EN: They should be swing trading.
ZH: 他们更应该做波段交易
31:45 - 31:52
EN: Sometimes the market is very quiet, and the only way to make money
ZH: 某些天市场非常平静，唯一的赚钱方式假设剥头皮，那没关系
31:50 - 31:52
EN: in a particular day is to scalp, and that’s okay.
ZH: 某些天市场非常平静，唯一的赚钱方式假设剥头皮，那没关系
31:58 - 32:01
EN: It’s important to understand that scalping is not for beginners.
ZH: 重点是要明白剥头皮交易不适合新手
Slide 021
Time: 31:59
Bilingual Transcript
32:01 - 32:05
EN: In fact, most traders should swing trade and rarely scalp.
ZH: 事实上，大多数交易者应该做波段交易， 尽量少做剥头皮交易
32:05 - 32:10
EN: If a trader does scalp, he should not scalp for a size that’s too small.
ZH: 就算剥头皮，也不应该做太小的交易
32:10 - 32:14
EN: Otherwise, the cost of commission, slippage, and spreads
ZH: 否则，手续费、滑点、点差、以及犯错的成本就太高了
32:13 - 32:22
EN: and mistakes become too great, and it becomes impossible to profitably trade
ZH: 否则，手续费、滑点、点差、以及犯错的成本就太高了 要常年保持90%的胜率才能稳定盈利，而这是不现实的
32:18 - 32:22
EN: unless you win 90% or more of your trades, and that’s simply unrealistic.
ZH: 要常年保持90%的胜率才能稳定盈利，而这是不现实的
32:26 - 32:27
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
32:27 - 32:29
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
32:29 - 32:33
EN: This is the third of four videos on swing trading and scalping.
ZH: 波段交易和剥头皮交易的第3节课，就先讲到这里