al-brooks-course
33D - Protective Stops
Raw transcript and slide notes for 33D - Protective Stops.
Overview
- Slides: 18
- Transcript segments: 519
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:09
EN: This is the fourth of seven videos on protective stops.
ZH: 这是保护性止损的第4节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:11
Bilingual Transcript
00:13 - 00:18
EN: For a trend to continue, it has to respect prior pullbacks.
ZH: （上涨）趋势想要继续的话，就必须尊重前期的回调
00:18 - 00:22
EN: It needs to continue to make trending Higher Highs and Higher Lows.
ZH: 需要继续制造更高的高点和更高的低点
00:24 - 00:27
EN: At some point, your premise will change.
ZH: 在某个时刻，你的前提会发生变化
00:27 - 00:30
EN: For example, if you’re holding a position and you believe you’re in a trend,
ZH: 例如，你坚定持有，相信市场处于趋势之中，
00:30 - 00:34
EN: but the market price action tells you that is no longer likely,
ZH: 但市场的价格行为告诉你前提不再成立，
00:34 - 00:36
EN: then you have to change how you’re trading the market.
ZH: 那么你就必须改变你的交易方式
Slide 002
Time: 00:38
Bilingual Transcript
00:43 - 00:47
EN: We clearly have a bull trend with Higher Lows and Higher Highs,
ZH: 这显然是上涨趋势，有更高的低点和更高的高点
00:47 - 00:50
EN: and whenever the market’s in a trend, you can always draw lines
ZH: 每当市场处于趋势中时，你就可以画线，
00:50 - 00:53
EN: that contain the price action – a bull channel.
ZH: 把所有的价格行为包含在上涨通道中
00:57 - 01:04
EN: A trader who’s buying or is long is holding his position
ZH: 一个交易者买入之后坚定持有， 因为根据理论，这是一个上涨趋势
01:02 - 01:04
EN: on the theory that this is a bull trend.
ZH: 一个交易者买入之后坚定持有， 因为根据理论，这是一个上涨趋势
01:04 - 01:08
EN: As long as the market is continuing to make major Higher Lows,
ZH: 只要重要的低点不断抬高，
01:08 - 01:11
EN: then it’s continuing to be in a bull trend.
ZH: 那么市场就继续处于上涨趋势中
01:11 - 01:13
EN: For example, this is a minor Higher Low.
ZH: 例如，这是一个次要的低点
01:14 - 01:19
EN: The rally that followed it was only very brief, and the market fell below it,
ZH: 它之后的上涨很短暂，市场跌破了这个低点
01:19 - 01:23
EN: but it did not fall below this low, a strong breakout to a new high.
ZH: 但没有跌破这个低点——强势突破创新高
01:23 - 01:25
EN: This is a much more important Higher Low.
ZH: 所以这个低点显然更加重要
01:25 - 01:28
EN: This is minor, and if the market falls below it,
ZH: 而这个只是次要的低点，就算它被跌破，
01:28 - 01:32
EN: a trader’s not going to change his opinion that the market’s in a bull trend.
ZH: 交易员也不会改变想法，因为市场仍然处于上涨趋势
01:32 - 01:37
EN: He’ll still believe it’s a bull trend, and he’ll believe
ZH: 他仍然相信这是上涨趋势， 他相信这只是更复杂的回调结构而已
01:35 - 01:37
EN: that the pullback is simply more complex.
ZH: 他仍然相信这是上涨趋势， 他相信这只是更复杂的回调结构而已
01:42 - 01:48
EN: After every strong breakout, especially a strong breakout
ZH: 在每次强势突破、尤其是创新高之后， 交易者会抬高他们的止损
01:45 - 01:48
EN: to a new high, traders will raise their stop
ZH: 在每次强势突破、尤其是创新高之后， 交易者会抬高他们的止损
01:48 - 01:52
EN: to below the most recent Higher Low that is a major Higher Low.
ZH: 抬高到最近一个重要低点的下方
01:58 - 02:01
EN: If the market ever falls below a major Higher Low,
ZH: 如果某个重要的低点被跌破，
02:01 - 02:05
EN: then the premise that the market’s in a bull trend is no longer correct.
ZH: 那么市场处于上涨趋势的前提就不再成立
02:05 - 02:10
EN: The market has then evolved into either a Trading Range
ZH: 市场很可能已经演变成了震荡区间， 甚至被反转成了下降趋势
02:08 - 02:10
EN: or possibly even a bear trend.
ZH: 市场很可能已经演变成了震荡区间， 甚至被反转成了下降趋势
02:15 - 02:17
EN: Here we had a strong breakout to a new high.
ZH: 这里强势突破创新高
02:17 - 02:23
EN: We had a major Higher Low, yet we had a strong reversal down
ZH: 它是一个重要的低点，但是强势反转下跌， 把它跌破了
02:21 - 02:23
EN: that broke below this Higher Low.
ZH: 它是一个重要的低点，但是强势反转下跌， 把它跌破了
02:23 - 02:28
EN: Once the market does that, do you still believe the market’s in a bull trend?
ZH: 出现这种情况之后，你还相信市场处于上涨趋势吗？
02:28 - 02:31
EN: It might be in a much broader, flatter bull channel,
ZH: 也许它是一个更宽、更平的上涨通道，
02:31 - 02:38
EN: but most traders would look at this and say the bull channel now has evolved
ZH: 但大多数交易者看到这个，会认为上涨通道现在已经变成了震荡区间，甚至是下降趋势
02:35 - 02:38
EN: into a Trading Range, possibly even a bear trend.
ZH: 但大多数交易者看到这个，会认为上涨通道现在已经变成了震荡区间，甚至是下降趋势
02:40 - 02:42
EN: It broke below the channel, the trend line.
ZH: 它跌破了通道，趋势线
02:43 - 02:45
EN: Bears will start looking for Lower Highs to sell,
ZH: 空头会想要在更低的高点卖出做空
02:45 - 02:48
EN: hoping for a series of Lower Highs and a bear trend
ZH: 押注高点会一个比一个低——变成下降趋势
02:48 - 02:51
EN: - for example, a Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: ——例如，高点降低的大反转
02:51 - 02:55
EN: Not high probability after 3 bull bars, 2 of them being big.
ZH: 但是连续3根阳线，其中两根体积很大， 所以（变成下降趋势的）概率不高
02:55 - 02:59
EN: More likely big down, big up, big confusion and sideways.
ZH: 更有可能是大涨、大跌、大的困惑——横盘震荡
03:06 - 03:11
EN: Is this a minor or a major Higher Low? I would call it a major Higher Low.
ZH: 这个低点是重要的还是次要的？ 我认为它是重要的低点
03:11 - 03:15
EN: We have 3 bull bars closing near their highs and we have a new high.
ZH: 连续3根阳线收在高位，而且涨到了新高
03:15 - 03:18
EN: However, I also think that we’ve had several pushes up.
ZH: 然而，我也考虑到，已经有几次向上的推动
03:18 - 03:20
EN: We’re getting near the top of the channel.
ZH: 现在已经接近通道的上沿
03:20 - 03:24
EN: If we do get a reversal down, the market might start to form a Trading Range.
ZH: 如果真的反转下跌，那么市场可能就会进入震荡区间
03:24 - 03:29
EN: In any case, if the market falls below this low,
ZH: 总之，如果如果市场跌破这个低点， 大概率就会开始横盘震荡
03:27 - 03:29
EN: probably the market’s going to go sideways.
ZH: 总之，如果如果市场跌破这个低点， 大概率就会开始横盘震荡
03:29 - 03:31
EN: Big up, big down, big confusion.
ZH: 大涨，大跌，大的困惑
Slide 003
Time: 03:35
Bilingual Transcript
03:40 - 03:43
EN: This might be minor in the eyes of some traders.
ZH: 在一些交易者眼中，它可能只是次要的低点
03:43 - 03:48
EN: The bars are not all that big, and as I said, this two-legged pullback
ZH: 这些阳线的体积并不大， 而且正如之前所说，这个两段式的回调，
03:48 - 03:51
EN: is still above this Higher Low and above this low.
ZH: 仍然在这个低点，和这个低点之上
03:51 - 03:54
EN: The bulls still might be in a very Broad Bull Channel.
ZH: 多头仍然可能处于一个非常宽的上涨通道中
04:00 - 04:04
EN: We had a strong pullback after an initial very strong breakout,
ZH: 在最初的强势突破之后，有深度的回调，
04:04 - 04:06
EN: and we’ve trended up since then.
ZH: 然后就一直上涨
04:06 - 04:10
EN: This is a more important Higher Low than this.
ZH: 所以这个低点比它更加重要
04:10 - 04:14
EN: This is, I think, major enough so that bull swing traders
ZH: 我认为这个低点足够重要，如果它被跌破，
04:14 - 04:16
EN: will conclude the market’s probably in a Trading Range.
ZH: 交易者会认为市场可能已经处于震荡区间
04:17 - 04:25
EN: But some traders will look at it as minor and maybe we’re just pulling back
ZH: 但一些交易者会认为它是次要的， 也许回调会形成一个大的3推楔形牛旗，然后再继续上涨
04:21 - 04:25
EN: to a large Wedge bull flag and we’ll get trend resumption up.
ZH: 但一些交易者会认为它是次要的， 也许回调会形成一个大的3推楔形牛旗，然后再继续上涨
04:25 - 04:33
EN: This I think most traders believe is a strong attempt
ZH: 这里是空头的一次努力尝试，想要反转上涨趋势， 但是最终多头获胜，强势上涨创新高
04:29 - 04:33
EN: by the bears to reverse the trend, and the bulls reversed up strongly instead.
ZH: 这里是空头的一次努力尝试，想要反转上涨趋势， 但是最终多头获胜，强势上涨创新高
04:33 - 04:36
EN: This is a very important Higher Low.
ZH: 这是一个非常重要的低点
04:36 - 04:39
EN: Most traders would view this as very important.
ZH: 大多数交易者都会认为它是非常重要的
04:39 - 04:43
EN: Some would view this as important.
ZH: 而这个，一些人认为它重要， 一些人认为它只是次要低点
04:41 - 04:43
EN: Others would view it as minor.
ZH: 而这个，一些人认为它重要， 一些人认为它只是次要低点
04:44 - 04:46
EN: We have a spike, pullback, channel.
ZH: 极速上涨、回调、通道
04:46 - 04:49
EN: Three pushes up, one, two, three.
ZH: 3次向上推动——1，2，3
04:50 - 04:56
EN: We also have maybe a 30 or 40 bar very Tight Bull Channel coming from this low.
ZH: 从这个低点开始，也是一个持续了30~40根K线的窄上涨通道
04:58 - 05:03
EN: If the market falls below this low, the final bulls will give up,
ZH: 如果连它都被跌破，那么最后的多头也会放弃
05:03 - 05:06
EN: and that’s what took place with these 2 big bear bars.
ZH: 这就是这两根大阴线所发生的情况
05:06 - 05:13
EN: The bulls believed it should not have fallen below this low
ZH: 多头相信，如果上涨趋势，甚至震荡区间的前提想要成立， 这个低点就不应该被跌破
05:09 - 05:13
EN: if the premise of a bull trend or even a Trading Range was intact,
ZH: 多头相信，如果上涨趋势，甚至震荡区间的前提想要成立， 这个低点就不应该被跌破
05:13 - 05:17
EN: and by falling below that low, the final bulls gave up.
ZH: 所以跌破它的时候，最后的多头也放弃了
05:17 - 05:23
EN: Some gave up below this low over here, and then others gave up here,
ZH: 一些人在这个低点下方离场， 然后有一些多头会在这个低点挂单买入
05:22 - 05:23
EN: but they bought this low.
ZH: 一些人在这个低点下方离场， 然后有一些多头会在这个低点挂单买入
05:23 - 05:25
EN: You can see we pulled back.
ZH: 可以看到这里有一些反弹
05:25 - 05:29
EN: However, once it fell below this low, the market collapsed.
ZH: 然而，一旦这个低点被跌破，市场就崩盘了
05:29 - 05:32
EN: The final bulls gave up on the premise of a bull trend.
ZH: 最后的多头也因前提不再成立而放弃
05:32 - 05:35
EN: Some bulls gave up here, others gave up here.
ZH: 一些多头在这里放弃，一些人在这里放弃
05:36 - 05:42
EN: Possibly minor Higher Low, possibly a two-legged pullback – one, two.
ZH: 也许这个只是次要的低点， 也许是两段式回调——1，2
05:42 - 05:46
EN: Bulls trying to buy here, but everyone agreed
ZH: 所以一些多头在这里买入； 然而，所有人都同意，
05:46 - 05:50
EN: that if it fell below this Higher Low or this Higher Low,
ZH: 如果这个，或者这个重要的低点被跌破，
05:50 - 05:53
EN: then the bull trend is no longer valid.
ZH: 那么上涨趋势就不再成立
05:53 - 05:57
EN: The market’s then either in a big Trading Range or in a bear trend.
ZH: 市场要么处于一个大的震荡区间，要么处于下降趋势
05:57 - 06:01
EN: And you can see the Give-up Bars, the very big selloff,
ZH: 所以你看到了这根放弃K线，非常剧烈的抛售
06:01 - 06:04
EN: and that represents the final bulls deciding
ZH: 那代表了最后的多头知道，
06:04 - 06:07
EN: that their premise of a bull trend is no longer valid.
ZH: 他们上涨趋势的前提已经不再成立
06:07 - 06:13
EN: In fact, their premise of a bull trend or possibly a deep pullback
ZH: 或者说，他们之前认为上涨趋势仍然成立， 或者这可能只是震荡区间中的深度回调，
06:11 - 06:15
EN: in a Trading Range is no longer valid once it fell below that low and that low.
ZH: 或者说，他们之前认为上涨趋势仍然成立， 或者这可能只是震荡区间中的深度回调， 但跌破这个或这个低点之后，他们的前提就不再成立了
06:22 - 06:24
EN: A very strong breakout, follow-through.
ZH: 非常强势的突破，跟随
06:24 - 06:28
EN: Chances are the market’s going to fall for some Measured Move down.
ZH: 市场可能会继续下跌到MM目标位
06:28 - 06:30
EN: The market’s Always In Short.
ZH: 市场现在处于单边下跌
06:30 - 06:34
EN: Traders are selling for any reason, and they’ll sell the first rally,
ZH: 交易者会以任何理由卖出做空， 他们会在第1次反弹的时候卖出，
06:34 - 06:39
EN: betting that we’ll get at least a small second leg down
ZH: 押注在突然的强势突破之后，至少会有小的第2段下跌
06:36 - 06:39
EN: after a surprise breakout like that.
ZH: 押注在突然的强势突破之后，至少会有小的第2段下跌
06:43 - 06:45
EN: A bear trend.
ZH: 下降趋势，低点降低
06:44 - 06:45
EN: We have Lower Lows.
ZH: 下降趋势，低点降低
06:45 - 06:47
EN: More importantly, we have Lower Highs.
ZH: 更重要的是：高点在降低
Slide 004
Time: 06:45
Bilingual Transcript
06:53 - 06:56
EN: You can draw a trend line across the top of the channel.
ZH: 你可以在通道上沿画一条下降趋势线
06:56 - 06:59
EN: You can draw a line below as well.
ZH: 下面也可以画一条线
07:03 - 07:08
EN: As long as the bear trend keeps getting strong breakouts to new lows,
ZH: 只要继续强势向下跌破、创新低，
07:08 - 07:11
EN: traders believe it’s in a bear trend.
ZH: 交易者就相信这是一个下降趋势
07:11 - 07:15
EN: If it rallies above one of the major Lower Highs,
ZH: 如果反弹超过了前期的重要高点，
07:15 - 07:18
EN: traders will conclude that the premise is no longer valid.
ZH: 交易者就会认为下降趋势的前提不再成立
07:18 - 07:20
EN: It’s no longer a bear trend.
ZH: 它不再是一个下降趋势
07:20 - 07:24
EN: If it’s not a bear trend, then it’s either a Trading Range or a bull trend.
ZH: 如果不是下降趋势，那么它要么是震荡区间， 要么是上涨趋势
07:27 - 07:33
EN: Is this a major Lower High? We have a breakout and we have a new low.
ZH: 这是一个重要的高点吗？ 它向下跌破到新低
07:33 - 07:36
EN: However, the breakout is not particularly strong.
ZH: 然而，突破并不是特别强
07:36 - 07:39
EN: Some traders would consider this to be relatively minor,
ZH: 一些交易者会认为，它相对来说不是那么重要
07:39 - 07:43
EN: and therefore if the market goes above it or a little bit above it,
ZH: 因此，如果反弹略微超过它，
07:43 - 07:46
EN: they’ll say that maybe we’re still in a bear trend.
ZH: 交易者会认为市场仍然处于下降趋势
07:46 - 07:48
EN: This is more important.
ZH: 这个高点更重要
07:48 - 07:52
EN: We tried to reverse up strongly, we got a Double Top bear flag.
ZH: 多头想要强势反转，但是变成了一个双顶熊旗
07:52 - 07:55
EN: We have a persistent selloff lasting about 30 bars.
ZH: 然后下跌持续了大约30根K线
07:55 - 07:58
EN: This is, I think, a more important Lower High.
ZH: 所以我认为这是一个更加重要的高点
08:08 - 08:10
EN: A weak bear breakout.
ZH: 较弱的空头突破
08:10 - 08:15
EN: If it goes above this high, it’s not necessarily clearly bullish.
ZH: 就算这个高点被突破，也并不代表看涨
08:15 - 08:19
EN: It’s less bearish, but not necessarily clearly bullish.
ZH: 只能说明不再那么看跌，但不一定明显看涨
08:25 - 08:29
EN: When I get a reversal up from a weak selloff like this,
ZH: 多头尝试反转这个较弱的下降趋势，
08:29 - 08:31
EN: especially when we’re still in a bear channel
ZH: 但仍然处于下降通道，
08:31 - 08:36
EN: - we’re still below the bear trend line – the first reversal up
ZH: 仍然在趋势线的下方，所以第1次上涨很可能只是小反弹
08:35 - 08:41
EN: is probably minor, which means either a bear flag
ZH: 仍然在趋势线的下方，所以第1次上涨很可能只是小反弹 也就是说，它要么是熊旗，要么只是震荡区间中的一段上涨
08:38 - 08:41
EN: or a bull leg in what will become a Trading Range.
ZH: 也就是说，它要么是熊旗，要么只是震荡区间中的一段上涨
08:41 - 08:44
EN: If the market is converting into a Trading Range,
ZH: 如果市场正在转变为震荡区间，
08:44 - 08:46
EN: traders will switch how they’re trading.
ZH: 交易者就会改变他们的交易方式
08:46 - 08:49
EN: They’ll look to buy low, sell high, and scalp.
ZH: 他们会开始高抛低吸、剥头皮、赚快钱
08:49 - 08:52
EN: They’ll no longer hold short for swing trades.
ZH: 他们不再愿意持有空头仓位做波段交易
08:52 - 09:01
EN: They’ll take profits at new lows, betting that the breakouts
ZH: 他们会在新的低点止盈，押注不会有大幅的跌破； 他们也会在反弹时卖出，押注多头无法成功地反转
08:55 - 09:01
EN: will not fall very far, and they’ll sell rallies,
ZH: 他们会在新的低点止盈，押注不会有大幅的跌破； 他们也会在反弹时卖出，押注多头无法成功地反转
08:59 - 09:01
EN: betting that the bulls will be unable to get a reversal.
ZH: 他们会在新的低点止盈，押注不会有大幅的跌破； 他们也会在反弹时卖出，押注多头无法成功地反转
09:03 - 09:07
EN: Bulls will buy at prior lows, betting that the bear breakouts will fail.
ZH: 多头会在前期的低点挂单买入，押注空头的突破会失败
09:07 - 09:12
EN: And the market becomes a Trading Range because traders are buying low.
ZH: 市场变成了一个震荡区间，因为交易者在逢低买入
09:12 - 09:17
EN: Both bulls and bears buy low, and both bulls and bears sell rallies.
ZH: 多头和空头都在逢低买入，也都在反弹时卖出
09:17 - 09:25
EN: Neither one holds onto positions long because they think the market
ZH: 没有人愿意长期持有，因为他们认为市场不会涨得太高， 也不会跌得太低，所以导致市场横盘震荡
09:20 - 09:25
EN: will not go very far up or down, and the result is the market goes sideways.
ZH: 没有人愿意长期持有，因为他们认为市场不会涨得太高， 也不会跌得太低，所以导致市场横盘震荡
09:29 - 09:31
EN: We’re sideways here, a Double Bottom.
ZH: 这里横盘，形成了双底
09:31 - 09:34
EN: Little bit of a Wedge pullback – one, two, three
ZH: 也有点像是3推楔形回调——1，2，3
09:35 - 09:36
EN: - and then a Double Bottom here.
ZH: 然后这里是双底
09:36 - 09:40
EN: A surprise bar, a big bull trend bar, and a follow-through bar.
ZH: 出现了意外的大阳线，而且有跟随的阳线
09:40 - 09:43
EN: We’re probably Always In Long, and we’ll probably get
ZH: 现在市场大概率已经处于单边上涨 （注：这里单边上涨的意思是，如果一定要选一个方向，那就只能做多）
09:43 - 09:46
EN: at least a small second leg up – one, pullback, two.
ZH: 至少会哟小的第2段上涨——1，回调，2
Slide 005
Time: 09:50
Bilingual Transcript
09:54 - 09:58
EN: If the market rallies above a major Lower High like this,
ZH: 如果市场反弹到了这个重要高点的上方
09:58 - 10:02
EN: the bears will give up, and the bulls will get very confident,
ZH: 空头就会放弃，而多头会变得非常自信
10:02 - 10:04
EN: and the result could be a bull trend.
ZH: 所以结果就可能变成上涨趋势
10:10 - 10:14
EN: Double Bottom with this low and any of these lows.
ZH: 这个低点和后面任何的低点都可以看做双底
10:14 - 10:17
EN: A Double Bottom and a Higher Low after breaking above the bear trend line,
ZH: 在突破下降趋势线之后，形成了双底，而且低点抬高，
10:17 - 10:20
EN: so a Double Bottom Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 所以是低点抬高的双底大反转结构
10:21 - 10:22
EN: The bars are small.
ZH: K线体积很小
10:22 - 10:24
EN: We’re in a Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 现在是窄震荡区间
10:24 - 10:27
EN: No sign that the market’s going to go very far soon;
ZH: 没有信号表明市场即将大幅突破
10:27 - 10:30
EN: however, it’s reasonable to start to buy.
ZH: 然而，开始做多是合理的
10:30 - 10:31
EN: Maybe above a bull bar like this.
ZH: 比如在这根阳线上方买入
10:41 - 10:44
EN: Lots of small bars.
ZH: 很多小K线，市场在横盘
10:43 - 10:44
EN: The market’s going sideways.
ZH: 很多小K线，市场在横盘
10:44 - 10:48
EN: Lots of reversals, bad follow-through after bull bars and bear bars.
ZH: 很多反转，阳线和阴线之后的跟随都不好
10:48 - 10:51
EN: The market thinks this is an appropriate price.
ZH: 说明市场认为现在的价格很公道
10:53 - 10:56
EN: Both bulls and bears are satisfied with this price.
ZH: 多头和空头都对这个价格满意
10:56 - 10:59
EN: However, every Trading Range is followed by a breakout,
ZH: 然而，所有的震荡区间最终会被突破
10:59 - 11:03
EN: and if there’s a strong breakout with follow-through,
ZH: 如果强势地向上突破，并且有跟随，
11:03 - 11:06
EN: the bear trend will probably evolve into a Trading Range
ZH: 那么下降趋势大概率就变成了震荡区间，
11:06 - 11:08
EN: or possibly even a bull trend.
ZH: 甚至会反转成为上涨趋势
11:08 - 11:11
EN: If there’s no strong breakout and follow-through,
ZH: 如果没有强势的突破和跟随，
11:11 - 11:14
EN: you have to assume every breakout will fail.
ZH: 你就必须假设每次突破都会失败
11:14 - 11:18
EN: A bear breakout, bull attempt at a breakout, and then bears, bulls, bears.
ZH: 空头尝试突破，多头尝试突破， 然后空头，多头，空头
11:22 - 11:30
EN: We have a bull breakout and follow-through, a pair of bull bars closing
ZH: 多头突破，有跟随， 两根阳线收盘在过去50多根K线的高点之上
11:26 - 11:30
EN: above the high of the past maybe 50 bars or so.
ZH: 多头突破，有跟随， 两根阳线收盘在过去50多根K线的高点之上
11:30 - 11:31
EN: Good for the bulls.
ZH: 行情对多头有利
11:31 - 11:36
EN: It’s not especially strong; the bars are not all that big relative
ZH: 并不算特别强势，相对之前的K线，体积也不算大
11:34 - 11:43
EN: to what we’ve had over here, and the follow-through, instead of being a series
ZH: 并不算特别强势，相对之前的K线，体积也不算大 而且后续并没有一系列的大阳线， 而只是几个小十字星
11:39 - 11:43
EN: of very big bull trend bars, is a series of small dojis.
ZH: 而且后续并没有一系列的大阳线， 而只是几个小十字星
11:43 - 11:51
EN: This is a weak rally, and probably this entire rally will end up
ZH: 所以只是较弱的反弹， 这段上涨最终很可能会变成震荡区间
11:48 - 11:51
EN: as a bull leg in what will become a Trading Range.
ZH: 所以只是较弱的反弹， 这段上涨最终很可能会变成震荡区间
Slide 006
Time: 11:55
Bilingual Transcript
11:58 - 12:04
EN: We’re attempting to reverse up from a Lower Low,
ZH: 尝试从新低向上反转，然后再次下跌创新低
12:02 - 12:04
EN: and then we sold off to a new low.
ZH: 尝试从新低向上反转，然后再次下跌创新低
12:04 - 12:08
EN: Sold off for maybe 15 bars, and we had a big bear bar.
ZH: 下跌了可能有15根K线，然后出现了这根大阴线
12:08 - 12:10
EN: This is, I think, an important Lower High.
ZH: 我认为这是一个重要的高点
12:10 - 12:15
EN: If the bears are going to continue to believe the market’s in a bear trend,
ZH: 如果空头相信市场继续处于下降趋势，
12:15 - 12:19
EN: they do not want the market to rally above any major Lower High,
ZH: 他们就不希望反弹超过任何重要的高点
12:19 - 12:23
EN: because then their premise of a bear trend is no longer valid
ZH: 因为那样的话，他们下降趋势的前提就不再成立，
12:23 - 12:26
EN: and they’ll have to switch how they’re trading.
ZH: 而他们也不得不改变交易的方式——
12:26 - 12:28
EN: So instead of trading like a bear trend,
ZH: 不再按照下降趋势交易，
12:28 - 12:31
EN: they’ll trade like a Trading Range or a bull trend.
ZH: 而是按照震荡区间或上涨趋势那样来交易
12:35 - 12:40
EN: 10 or more bars to a new low, pretty good bear bar, pretty good bear breakout.
ZH: 十几根K线，跌到新低，非常不错的大阴线， 非常不错的空头突破
12:41 - 12:46
EN: We have lots of reversals in here – a Higher Low here, a Lower High here,
ZH: 之前这里有很多反转—— 低点抬高，高点降低
12:46 - 12:50
EN: and even here, we have a Higher Low here, a Lower High here.
ZH: 这里也是，低点抬高，高点降低
12:51 - 12:55
EN: Most of these reversals create minor Lower Highs and Lower Lows.
ZH: 这些反转大部分都制造了次要的高点和地点
12:56 - 12:58
EN: You can see even going down, going up,
ZH: 可以看到，不管是下跌，还是上涨
12:58 - 13:01
EN: we’re just not getting good follow-through either way.
ZH: 多空双方都没有得到好的跟随
13:01 - 13:05
EN: This entire selloff looks like it’s a bear leg
ZH: 这段下跌看上去会变成震荡区间
13:04 - 13:05
EN: in what will become a Trading Range.
ZH: 这段下跌看上去会变成震荡区间
13:05 - 13:09
EN: This rally, the absence of consecutive big bull trend bars,
ZH: 这段上涨，没有连续的大阳线
13:09 - 13:11
EN: probably a bull leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 大概率只是震荡区间中的上涨波段
13:11 - 13:13
EN: And that’s true all the way here.
ZH: 一直到这里都是这样
13:13 - 13:19
EN: The only clearly strong Lower High, major Lower High, is here, maybe here.
ZH: 唯一明确的重要高点是这里，这里可能也是
13:19 - 13:22
EN: Some computers will consider this major.
ZH: 一些电脑程序会认为它是重要的高点
13:22 - 13:26
EN: Most computers will not consider these as particularly major.
ZH: 但大部分电脑不会把这些看作是重要的高点
13:29 - 13:32
EN: And if the market breaks above these Lower Highs,
ZH: 即使反弹到这些高点的上方，
13:32 - 13:35
EN: probably the breakout is not significant.
ZH: 大概率不会是特别大幅的突破
13:35 - 13:38
EN: It’s probably not changing the market into a bull trend.
ZH: 大概率不会反转成为上涨趋势
13:40 - 13:44
EN: There’s another problem with this Lower High
ZH: 它不是特别重要的高点，还有另一个原因
13:42 - 13:44
EN: that makes it really not all that important.
ZH: 它不是特别重要的高点，还有另一个原因
13:44 - 13:47
EN: It’s not the top of the current bear leg.
ZH: 因为它不是当前这个下跌波段的起跌点
13:47 - 13:52
EN: It’s like this, a Lower High after the top of the bear leg.
ZH: 而是起跌点之后的一个降低的高点
13:52 - 13:57
EN: This is not nearly as major as this, and the same is true of this.
ZH: 它不像之前这个高点那么重要， 同样，它也不重要
13:58 - 14:05
EN: If you’re looking for a major Lower High, you want it
ZH: 如果你想找到重要的高点， 就要看目前这个下跌波段的起跌点，而不是在当中
14:01 - 14:05
EN: to be the top of the current bear leg, not halfway down.
ZH: 如果你想找到重要的高点， 就要看目前这个下跌波段的起跌点，而不是在当中
14:09 - 14:11
EN: And the same with this.
ZH: 这里也是一样
14:11 - 14:16
EN: We have a bear breakout, but does not go to a new low.
ZH: 两根大阴线，但是没有跌到新低
14:16 - 14:19
EN: Going above it does not convert the market into a bull trend.
ZH: 即使突破了它，也不代表会反转成上涨趋势
14:19 - 14:23
EN: Even going above this does not convert it into a bull trend.
ZH: 甚至就算突破这个高点，也没有能反转成上涨趋势
14:23 - 14:28
EN: It weakens the bear case, but probably the market’s
ZH: 它代表空头的力量正在衰弱， 代表市场正在转变成为震荡区间
14:26 - 14:28
EN: transitioning into a Trading Range.
ZH: 它代表空头的力量正在衰弱， 代表市场正在转变成为震荡区间
14:28 - 14:33
EN: Even looking at this rally – bull bar, doji, pair of bull bars, tail
ZH: 仔细看这段上涨—— 阳线，十字星，两根阳线，上影线
14:33 - 14:37
EN: - and then looking at the selloff – bear bar, doji, bear bar, bull bar,
ZH: 再来看这段下跌——阴线，十字星，阴线，阳线
14:37 - 14:40
EN: a bear bar, doji, bull bar, bear bar, bull bar
ZH: 阴线，十字星，阳线，阴线，阳线
14:40 - 14:45
EN: - all of this trading looks like the market’s evolving into a Trading Range.
ZH: 所有这些价格行为，看起来市场正在演变成震荡区间
14:45 - 14:49
EN: Trading Ranges resist changing into trends.
ZH: 震荡区间抗拒变成趋势
14:49 - 14:52
EN: Therefore, if the market breaks above these Lower Highs,
ZH: 因此，就算市场突破了这些高点
14:52 - 14:55
EN: even with a relatively strong breakout like this or like this,
ZH: 即使是像这样、或这样相对强势的突破
14:55 - 14:58
EN: it’s probably simply a bull leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 也大概率只是震荡区间中的一段上涨
14:58 - 15:01
EN: The bear trend has evolved into a Trading Range.
ZH: 下降趋势已经演变成了震荡区间
15:01 - 15:06
EN: It has not turned into a bull trend by simply going above minor Lower Highs.
ZH: 仅仅突破次要的高点并不足以让它反转成为上涨趋势
15:09 - 15:13
EN: Here, we closed above the top of the entire range.
ZH: 这根阳线的收盘收在过去整个震荡区间的上方
15:13 - 15:15
EN: This, I think, is a major Lower High.
ZH: 我认为它是一个重要的高点
15:15 - 15:16
EN: We got a new low.
ZH: 因为它强势跌破创新低了
15:17 - 15:20
EN: We’re starting to form a series of Higher Highs,
ZH: 多头开始制造一系列更高的高点
15:20 - 15:23
EN: and now we have a breakout and a follow-through bar.
ZH: 现在多头突破创新高，而且还有跟随K线
15:23 - 15:26
EN: This is potentially a gap for a Measured Move up.
ZH: 这是一个潜在的测量型缺口 （注：意思是，突破之后可能会上涨到MM目标位）
15:27 - 15:32
EN: The Trading Range now is converting into a bull trend.
ZH: 震荡区间现在正在转变为震荡区间
Slide 007
Time: 15:35
Bilingual Transcript
15:39 - 15:43
EN: Strong bull breakout above Lower Highs,
ZH: 尽管强势突破了这个高点
15:43 - 15:46
EN: but not at the top of the current bear leg.
ZH: 但是它并不是当前这个下跌波段的起跌点
15:46 - 15:51
EN: These are minor Lower Highs, and that is not enough
ZH: 突破这些次要的高点， 还不足以让交易者相信市场现在已经处于上涨趋势
15:48 - 15:51
EN: to make traders believe the market’s now in a bull trend.
ZH: 突破这些次要的高点， 还不足以让交易者相信市场现在已经处于上涨趋势
15:51 - 15:54
EN: It’s probably a bull leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 这大概率只是震荡区间中的上涨波段
15:59 - 16:02
EN: After the bull breakout, look at the bar that followed
ZH: 在多头突破之后，看跟随的K线——
16:02 - 16:07
EN: - the two bars that followed.
ZH: 后面是两根阴线，几乎完全反转了前面的涨幅
16:04 - 16:07
EN: They’ve pretty much totally reversed the entire rally,
ZH: 后面是两根阴线，几乎完全反转了前面的涨幅
16:07 - 16:10
EN: and bad follow-through after the breakout.
ZH: 所以多头突破之后的跟随很糟糕
16:10 - 16:14
EN: That means that more Trading Range is likely,
ZH: 这代表着会有更多震荡的价格行为
16:14 - 16:17
EN: and less likely the start of a bull trend.
ZH: 而不太可能是上涨趋势的开始
16:23 - 16:25
EN: Strong bull breakout, bad follow-through.
ZH: 多头突破，跟随很差
16:25 - 16:29
EN: Probably bull leg in a Trading Range and more sideways.
ZH: 很可能只是震荡区间中的一段上涨，市场会继续横盘
16:29 - 16:30
EN: The same right here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
16:30 - 16:34
EN: Strong breakout above the top of the Sell Climax, but bad follow-through.
ZH: 尽管突破了大阴线的高点，但跟随很差
16:34 - 16:36
EN: Probably sideways.
ZH: 大概率继续横盘
16:42 - 16:46
EN: Here we have a breakout and a bull bar and another bull bar,
ZH: 这里突破之后，跟随是阳线，又一根阳线
16:46 - 16:50
EN: also a close above the top of the past 40 or 50 bars.
ZH: 同时它也收盘在过去40~50根K线的最高点上方
16:51 - 16:56
EN: The tails on top make the rally less likely to be very strong.
ZH: 它顶部的上影线较长，所以上涨不会太强势
16:56 - 17:00
EN: However, the breakout is good enough so traders will expect
ZH: 但是这个突破也足够好， 所以交易者预期会至少再涨一些
16:59 - 17:04
EN: at least a little bit more up, maybe a Measured Move up
ZH: 但是这个突破也足够好， 所以交易者预期会至少再涨一些 也许会涨到震荡区间的MM目标位
17:02 - 17:04
EN: based upon the height of the Trading Range.
ZH: 也许会涨到震荡区间的MM目标位
17:09 - 17:12
EN: Top of the range, we have a Double Top and we have a neckline.
ZH: 在区间的顶部，有一个双顶，颈线在下方
17:12 - 17:15
EN: Instead of falling below the neckline for a Measured Move down,
ZH: 没有向下跌破、跌到MM目标位，
17:16 - 17:18
EN: we’re breaking above the Double Top.
ZH: 而是向上突破了这个双顶
17:18 - 17:21
EN: Therefore traders will look for a Measured Move up.
ZH: 所以交易者预期市场会涨到反向的MM目标位
17:24 - 17:30
EN: And you can see what happened when the market got around the area
ZH: 可以看到当市场上涨到MM目标位附近时发生了什么——
17:28 - 17:35
EN: of the Measured Move target – the bulls took profits
ZH: 可以看到当市场上涨到MM目标位附近时发生了什么—— 多头止盈，而空头开始卖出， 争取至少做一笔剥头皮交易
17:31 - 17:35
EN: and the bears probably started to sell at least for a scalp.
ZH: 多头止盈，而空头开始卖出， 争取至少做一笔剥头皮交易
17:40 - 17:43
EN: Trends do not go on forever; they eventually change.
ZH: 趋势不会永远持续下去，最终会发生改变
Slide 008
Time: 17:40
Bilingual Transcript
17:43 - 17:47
EN: Trading Ranges do not go on forever; they eventually break out.
ZH: 震荡区间不会永远持续，最终会被突破
17:47 - 17:52
EN: If you’re in a trade and you’re trading based upon the current price action
ZH: 你根据目前的价格行为入场交易，
17:52 - 17:56
EN: but the price action changes, you have to change how you’re trading.
ZH: 但是如果价格行为发生了变化， 你就必须改变你的交易方式
Slide 009
Time: 17:58
Bilingual Transcript
18:06 - 18:13
EN: Let’s say you’re a bull and you see
ZH: 假设你是多头，然后你看到连续4根阳线突破创新高
18:09 - 18:13
EN: a 4 consecutive bull bar breakout to a new high.
ZH: 假设你是多头，然后你看到连续4根阳线突破创新高
18:13 - 18:16
EN: Breakout above a Wedge Top – one, two, three.
ZH: 突破了这个楔形顶的最高点——1，2，3
18:16 - 18:19
EN: In general if you break above a Wedge Top,
ZH: 通常，如果突破了楔形顶的最高点，
18:19 - 18:22
EN: 50/50 chance you’ll rally for a Measured Move up,
ZH: 50%的概率会继续上涨到MM目标位
18:22 - 18:26
EN: 50/50 chance the breakout will fail and reverse back down.
ZH: 50%的概率突破会失败，然后反转下跌
18:27 - 18:29
EN: But let’s say you bought that close.
ZH: 假设你在它的收盘买入做多
18:29 - 18:34
EN: The fourth consecutive bull bar, but it’s also the strongest rally
ZH: 连续4根阳线，但它也是整个趋势中最强势的一段上涨
18:34 - 18:38
EN: in the entire trend, certainly in the last 20 bars or so,
ZH: 至少是过去20多根K线中最大的上涨
18:38 - 18:43
EN: and therefore 60% chance it’s an exhaustion move and the market
ZH: 因此60%的概率它是竭尽型缺口，
18:43 - 18:47
EN: will trade down to the bottom of the Buy Climax, down here.
ZH: 会跌回到抢购高潮的起涨点——就在这里
18:48 - 18:54
EN: You have to be ready to exit if you bought that close
ZH: 如果你在它的收盘买入，就必须做好准备， 如果跟随不好就离场——确实不好
18:52 - 18:54
EN: if you get bad follow-through, and you did.
ZH: 如果你在它的收盘买入，就必须做好准备， 如果跟随不好就离场——确实不好
18:54 - 18:58
EN: This bear bar is terrible follow-through for traders who bought that close.
ZH: 对于在收盘买入的多头而言， 这根阴线的跟随非常糟糕
19:02 - 19:07
EN: If you bought that close, your initial stop is right
ZH: 如果你在这里买入，初始止损放在这一段的起涨点下方， 也就是最近一个重要低点的下方
19:04 - 19:07
EN: below the bottom of the breakout, the most recent major Higher Low.
ZH: 如果你在这里买入，初始止损放在这一段的起涨点下方， 也就是最近一个重要低点的下方
19:12 - 19:16
EN: However, after you get 3 or 4 consecutive bear bars closing near their lows,
ZH: 然而，在连续3~4根阴线收在最低之后
19:16 - 19:20
EN: your premise of a bull trend has to change.
ZH: 你必须意识到，上涨趋势的这个前提已经改变了
19:20 - 19:25
EN: This looks more like a reversal and an exhaustive Buy Climax, and if so,
ZH: 这看起来更像是抢购高潮之后的反转，如果是这样的话，
19:25 - 19:30
EN: 60% chance we’re going to get down below the bottom of the Buy Climax.
ZH: 60%的概率会跌到抢购高潮的起涨点之下
19:30 - 19:33
EN: 4 consecutive bear bars closing on their lows
ZH: 连续4根阴线收在最低
19:33 - 19:37
EN: makes a reversal more likely than a continued bull trend.
ZH: 现在更有可能是反转，而不是继续上涨
19:38 - 19:41
EN: Your premise of a bull trend has changed.
ZH: 上涨趋势的前提已经发生了变化
19:42 - 19:45
EN: Do you wait for the market to hit your stop? Of course not.
ZH: 你难道要眼睁睁地看着市场打掉你的止损吗？ 当然不会
19:45 - 19:47
EN: You no longer believe it’s a bull trend.
ZH: 你不再相信这是一个上涨趋势
19:47 - 19:51
EN: You believe this is an Exhaustion Gap – this close to that high
ZH: 你认为这是竭尽型缺口—— 它的收盘和那个高点之间
19:51 - 19:57
EN: - and then once this bar closes, this low to this high, this to this high.
ZH: 当这根K线收盘时，新的缺口是从这个低点到这个、这个、这个高点
19:58 - 20:05
EN: The market is now probably having an exhaustive Buy Climax and a reversal down
ZH: 所以这大概率是抢购高潮之后的反转， 至少测试抢购高潮的起涨点，
20:03 - 20:11
EN: to the bottom of the Buy Climax, and then it decides whether to fall
ZH: 所以这大概率是抢购高潮之后的反转， 至少测试抢购高潮的起涨点， 然后市场再决定，到底是继续下跌到MM目标位， 还是恢复上涨趋势
20:08 - 20:11
EN: for a Measured Move down or go sideways, maybe resume up.
ZH: 然后市场再决定，到底是继续下跌到MM目标位， 还是恢复上涨趋势
20:18 - 20:22
EN: Most bulls would exit below that bear bar closing on its low,
ZH: 大多数多头看到这根收在最低的阴线之后， 会在它的下方离场
20:22 - 20:25
EN: betting that this is a Higher High Major Trend Reversal
ZH: 押注这是一个高点抬高的大反转
20:25 - 20:30
EN: - bull trend, bear breakout, Higher High – especially an Exhaustion Gap.
ZH: ——上涨趋势，空头突破，高点太高—— 尤其是因为，这是一个接近性缺口
20:30 - 20:35
EN: The strongest bull move late in a bull trend probably is the end
ZH: 上涨趋势后期最大的上涨波段， 可能是趋势结束前最后的上涨
20:34 - 20:38
EN: of the bull trend, especially if you had this kind
ZH: 上涨趋势后期最大的上涨波段， 可能是趋势结束前最后的上涨 特别是这里，突破之后的跟随很糟糕
20:36 - 20:38
EN: of bar following the bull breakout.
ZH: 特别是这里，突破之后的跟随很糟糕
20:43 - 20:47
EN: Aggressive bears will sell, betting that this is the end of the bull trend
ZH: 激进的空头会卖出做空， 押注上涨趋势已经衰竭、结束
20:47 - 20:51
EN: and that we’ll get down to the bottom of the Buy Climax,
ZH: 并且会跌回到抢购高潮的起涨点
20:51 - 20:55
EN: and that the breakout above the Wedge Top will fail.
ZH: 而且这是楔形顶上方失败的突破
21:01 - 21:05
EN: Bears wanting a higher probability will wait until the market has 3
ZH: 想要更高胜率的空头会等待，
21:05 - 21:12
EN: or 4 consecutive bear bars and then they’ll sell the close here
ZH: 当市场制造出3~4根连续的阴线之后， 他们会在它、或者它的收盘卖出做空，然后把止损放在上方
21:09 - 21:12
EN: or sell the close here, and put a stop above here.
ZH: 当市场制造出3~4根连续的阴线之后， 他们会在它、或者它的收盘卖出做空，然后把止损放在上方
21:12 - 21:16
EN: Higher probability to wait for several consecutive bear bars,
ZH: 等看到连续几根阴线再入场的胜率更高
21:17 - 21:19
EN: but your stop is further away.
ZH: 但代价是止损变得更远
21:19 - 21:22
EN: If you sell below this bar, you get filled here.
ZH: 如果你在这根K线下方挂突破卖单， 你会在这里成交
21:22 - 21:26
EN: If you sell the close here, your stop is still here,
ZH: 如果你在它的收盘卖出做空，你的止损仍然在这里
21:26 - 21:28
EN: further away, but higher probability.
ZH: 止损更远，但胜率更高
21:28 - 21:31
EN: Reasonable to short either way.
ZH: 两个做空的入场点都是合理的
Slide 010
Time: 21:35
Bilingual Transcript
21:40 - 21:45
EN: Again, whenever you get the strongest bull move late in a bull trend,
ZH: 再讲一遍，在上涨趋势后期出现大的突破时，
21:45 - 21:48
EN: it’s probably going to be an exhaustive move,
ZH: 它大概率是衰竭之前最后的上涨
21:48 - 21:51
EN: and the market will probably get down to the bottom
ZH: 并且市场很可能会下跌到这一次突破的起涨点，
21:51 - 21:55
EN: of the bull breakout before it goes for a Measured Move up.
ZH: 而不是继续上涨到上方的MM目标位
21:55 - 21:59
EN: Also, whenever you have a Wedge Top, any place where there’s a logical stop
ZH: 另外，如果出现一个楔形顶， 任何符合逻辑的止损位——
21:59 - 22:03
EN: - the bears who sold here, their logical stop is above the high of this bar
ZH: 比如在这里做空的空头，他们的止损放在这根K线的高点上方
22:04 - 22:10
EN: - any time the market hits a logical stop, 50/50 chance the market
ZH: 当市场碰到一个合理的止损之后， 50%的概率会继续上涨到MM目标位，
22:09 - 22:13
EN: will continue up for a Measured Move, maybe based upon the height of this range.
ZH: 当市场碰到一个合理的止损之后， 50%的概率会继续上涨到MM目标位， 比如把这个区间的高度往上翻一倍
22:13 - 22:18
EN: 50/50 chance the breakout above the stop location will fail
ZH: 50%的概率，向上突破止损位的尝试会失败，
22:18 - 22:19
EN: and the market will reverse down.
ZH: 然后市场会反转下跌
22:19 - 22:22
EN: You can think of it as consecutive tops.
ZH: 你可以把它看作是连续的顶部
22:22 - 22:26
EN: We had a Wedge Top, failed, and now we have another top,
ZH: 之前的楔形顶失败了，现在再次尝试筑顶
22:26 - 22:28
EN: an exhaustive Buy Climax top.
ZH: 而且是衰竭型的抢购高潮
22:33 - 22:36
EN: A Triangle.
ZH: 三角形，或者你可以把它看作是一个窄震荡区间
22:34 - 22:36
EN: You could simply call it a Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 三角形，或者你可以把它看作是一个窄震荡区间
22:36 - 22:38
EN: If you want, you can call it a Triangle.
ZH: 也可以看作是三角形
22:39 - 22:44
EN: 20 or more bars long in a bull trend, often becomes the final bull flag.
ZH: 上涨趋势中，持续了超过20根K线的三角形， 通常很有可能是末端旗形
22:45 - 22:49
EN: If there’s a bull breakout, the market tries to come back
ZH: 如果向上突破，通常会跌回到三角形的中间
22:47 - 22:49
EN: to the middle of the Triangle.
ZH: 如果向上突破，通常会跌回到三角形的中间
22:49 - 22:58
EN: We know that there’s a 60% chance the market is going to come all the way down
ZH: 出现这种糟糕的跟随之后，你知道至少60%的概率， 市场会下跌到抢购高潮的起涨点
22:54 - 22:58
EN: to the bottom of the Buy Climax when you get that kind of a follow-through bar.
ZH: 出现这种糟糕的跟随之后，你知道至少60%的概率， 市场会下跌到抢购高潮的起涨点
Slide 011
Time: 23:00
Bilingual Transcript
23:05 - 23:07
EN: Maybe a Trading Range, maybe a bear channel.
ZH: （最开始的部分）可能是震荡区间，也可能是一个下降通道
23:07 - 23:11
EN: In any case, we have a bear breakout closing far below this low,
ZH: 不管之前是什么，现在向下跌破， 大阴线的收盘远低于之前的低点
23:11 - 23:14
EN: and then we have a follow-through bar as well.
ZH: 后面还有良好的跟随
23:15 - 23:18
EN: Two legs down, Measured Move down likely.
ZH: 大概率会有第2段下跌，跌到MM目标位
23:20 - 23:24
EN: Because of that, some bears will sell that close and put a stop
ZH: 因此，一些空头会在它的收盘卖出做空，
23:24 - 23:26
EN: above the top of the current bear leg.
ZH: 并且把止损放在当前这个下跌波段的起跌点上方
23:35 - 23:37
EN: This is a very Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 这是一个非常窄的下降通道
23:37 - 23:40
EN: It looks like a 7 bar bear Micro Channel,
ZH: 看起来是一个持续了7根K线的下降微通道
23:40 - 23:42
EN: and that means that the bears are strong.
ZH: 这意味着空头非常强壮
23:42 - 23:44
EN: They’ll sell the first reversal up.
ZH: 他们会在第1次反弹时卖出做空
23:44 - 23:47
EN: The first reversal up will therefore be minor
ZH: 所以第1次上涨大概率只是小反弹
23:47 - 23:50
EN: and lead to either a Trading Range or a bear flag.
ZH: 然后变成震荡区间，或者变成熊旗
23:57 - 24:03
EN: The bulls can argue a Wedge – three pushes down, one, two, three.
ZH: 一些多头会认为这是一个楔形底——1，2，3
24:03 - 24:04
EN: Parabolic Wedge.
ZH: 抛物线楔形
24:05 - 24:11
EN: They can also argue this doji is a pause
ZH: 他们认为这个十字星是突破后的一次暂停， 也是第2段下跌的开始
24:08 - 24:11
EN: from this breakout and the start of a second leg down.
ZH: 他们认为这个十字星是突破后的一次暂停， 也是第2段下跌的开始
24:12 - 24:18
EN: This breakout and follow-through are strong enough so the market
ZH: 这个突破和跟随足够强势，所以至少会有第2段下跌
24:15 - 24:18
EN: will probably have at least a second leg down, and it’s possible
ZH: 这个突破和跟随足够强势，所以至少会有第2段下跌
24:18 - 24:22
EN: that these 2 bear bars represent the end of that second leg down.
ZH: 有可能这两根阴线就是第2段下跌的结束
Slide 012
Time: 24:25
Bilingual Transcript
24:31 - 24:37
EN: Some bears will look at this and say, okay, we have 6 good bear bars,
ZH: 一些空头会认为，连续8根K线的下降通道， 其中6根都是不错的阴线
24:35 - 24:40
EN: 8 bars in the bear channel – chances are the first reversal up is minor,
ZH: 一些空头会认为，连续8根K线的下降通道， 其中6根都是不错的阴线 所以第1次上涨大概率只是小反转
24:40 - 24:43
EN: and therefore I’ll place a limit order to sell at the high of the prior bar,
ZH: 因此他会在前1根K线的高点挂限价卖单
24:43 - 24:47
EN: and I would get filled here, betting that the reversal up is minor
ZH: 订单会在这里成交，押注这只是一次小反弹
24:47 - 24:52
EN: and it will become a bear flag or simply a bull leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 押注它会变成熊旗，或者仅仅只是震荡区间中的一段上涨
24:58 - 25:04
EN: The bears who did sell do not like this bull bar closing
ZH: 但是随后，空头不愿意看到这根大阳线—— 体积很大，收盘在最高
25:02 - 25:04
EN: on its high and having a big bull body.
ZH: 但是随后，空头不愿意看到这根大阳线—— 体积很大，收盘在最高
25:05 - 25:09
EN: Therefore, they’re wondering if the Parabolic Wedge
ZH: 因此，他们在思考，这可能是抛物线楔形， 多头可能会反转、并控制市场
25:07 - 25:09
EN: is taking control of the market.
ZH: 因此，他们在思考，这可能是抛物线楔形， 多头可能会反转、并控制市场
25:09 - 25:14
EN: Three reversals up – one, two, three.
ZH: 3次反弹（3次向下的推动）——1，2，3
25:14 - 25:18
EN: This might have been the entire second leg down after this first leg down.
ZH: 这两根阴线可能就是突破之后的第2段下跌
Slide 013
Time: 25:20
Bilingual Transcript
25:22 - 25:23
EN: Rally continuing.
ZH: 反弹在继续
25:23 - 25:27
EN: Now we have 4 bull bars, 3 with decent size bull bodies.
ZH: 已经连续4根阳线，其中3个有不错的体积
25:29 - 25:33
EN: Some bears will sell at a 50% pullback of the bear trend.
ZH: 一些空头会在下降趋势的50%反弹处卖出
25:33 - 25:37
EN: Top of the bear trend, bottom of the bear trend, 50% pullback.
ZH: 下降趋势的起点，最低点，这里是50%反弹
25:41 - 25:45
EN: 4 consecutive bull bars closing near their highs.
ZH: 连续4根阳线收盘在几乎最高
25:45 - 25:47
EN: Possibly we’ve already had the second leg down.
ZH: 说明第2段下跌很可能已经结束了
25:54 - 26:02
EN: However, a very Tight Bear Channel – the first reversal up,
ZH: 然而，左边是窄下降通道—— 第1次上涨，多头能得到的最好结果也就是震荡区间
25:59 - 26:02
EN: probably the best the bulls get is a Trading Range.
ZH: 然而，左边是窄下降通道—— 第1次上涨，多头能得到的最好结果也就是震荡区间
26:02 - 26:05
EN: Also, big down, surprisingly big up.
ZH: 还有，大跌，又突然大涨
26:06 - 26:09
EN: Big down, big up creates big confusion.
ZH: 大跌、大涨、制造了大的困惑
26:09 - 26:12
EN: Big confusion is a hallmark of a Trading Range.
ZH: 这些是震荡区间的特征
26:12 - 26:15
EN: Probably the market’s going to go sideways.
ZH: 所以市场很可能会横盘
26:15 - 26:18
EN: However, because of the big reversal up,
ZH: 然而，由于大幅反转上涨
26:18 - 26:22
EN: the premise of a bear trend is probably no longer valid.
ZH: 下降趋势的前提大概率已经不成立了
26:22 - 26:27
EN: Instead, the market probably is evolving into a Trading Range.
ZH: 市场可能正在演变成震荡区间
26:30 - 26:34
EN: After the 3 bull bars closing on their highs, a lot of the bears will exit,
ZH: 看到3根阳线收在最高之后，很多空头会离场
26:34 - 26:40
EN: and then they’ll wait, just in case this in fact is a reversal
ZH: 离场后他们会耐心等待（而不是立刻再次做空）， 以防市场会反转成为上涨趋势
26:38 - 26:40
EN: that will lead to a bull trend.
ZH: 离场后他们会耐心等待（而不是立刻再次做空）， 以防市场会反转成为上涨趋势
26:40 - 26:45
EN: 3 bull bars in a bear trend, bull bars closing on their highs
ZH: 下降趋势中突然出现了连续3根阳线收在高位
26:45 - 26:49
EN: - most traders assume there’ll be at least a small second leg up.
ZH: ——大多数交易者认为至少会有小的第2段上涨
26:49 - 26:51
EN: Traders who are short will exit.
ZH: 所以空头会认亏离场 （或者接受利润回撤、离场）
26:51 - 26:51
EN: They’ll take the loss.
ZH: 所以空头会认亏离场 （或者接受利润回撤、离场）
26:51 - 26:56
EN: If they sold here and sold more here, they’ll just get out here and they’ll look
ZH: 如果他们在这里做空，在这里加仓， 他们会在它的收盘离场
26:56 - 27:00
EN: to sell again in a few bars if the market starts to resume down.
ZH: 然后等待几根K线，如果有恢复下跌的机会， 到是再入场做空
27:08 - 27:12
EN: Aggressive bulls will say, wow, we got 3 good looking bull bars,
ZH: 激进的多头会说：“哇！有3根漂亮的阳线！
27:12 - 27:18
EN: 2 closing on their highs, both good size bodies
ZH: 其中两根收在最高，体积都很不错—— 第1次回调大概率不会有太大的跌幅，
27:15 - 27:18
EN: - probably the first reversal down will not get very far,
ZH: 其中两根收在最高，体积都很不错—— 第1次回调大概率不会有太大的跌幅，
27:18 - 27:21
EN: and therefore I’ll place a limit order to buy at the low
ZH: 所以我要在前1根K线的低点挂限价买单。”
27:21 - 27:24
EN: of the prior bar and I’ll get filled right here.
ZH: 他的订单在这里成交
27:26 - 27:28
EN: And these bulls will scale in lower as well,
ZH: 这样做的多头也会逢低加仓
27:28 - 27:31
EN: betting that the first reversal down will result
ZH: 押注第1次下跌只是小回调，
27:31 - 27:37
EN: in a minor bear resumption, a Higher Low, and at least a small second leg up.
ZH: 然后低点抬高，至少会有小的第2段上涨
27:39 - 27:42
EN: And this is what we got.
ZH: 这就是后续的行情，继续上涨了
Slide 014
Time: 27:40
Bilingual Transcript
27:41 - 27:42
EN: We continued up.
ZH: 这就是后续的行情，继续上涨了
27:42 - 27:46
EN: We had a pullback to around 50% and then a bigger second leg up.
ZH: 回调到了50%附近之后，制造了大的第2段上涨
27:52 - 27:57
EN: Some of the bears who sold this close kept their stop above this high.
ZH: 一些空头在这里做空之后，把止损放在这个高点上方
28:00 - 28:05
EN: Sometimes when you have two reasonable stop locations – for example, here,
ZH: 有时候，如果有两个合理的止损位，比如说——
28:05 - 28:08
EN: the top of the Sell Climax or the top of the bear trend
ZH: 抛售高潮的起跌点，或者整个下降趋势的起跌点——
28:08 - 28:11
EN: - it’s okay to use your stop above either one.
ZH: 使用其中任何一个都是合理的
28:11 - 28:14
EN: A lot of traders will put it above the top of the Sell Climax.
ZH: 很多交易者会把止损放在抛售高潮的起点上方
28:14 - 28:19
EN: Whenever the market has a big reversal like this, big down, big up,
ZH: 每当市场出现这样的大反转——大跌、大涨， 这很可能是震荡区间
28:17 - 28:19
EN: it’s probably in a Trading Range.
ZH: 每当市场出现这样的大反转——大跌、大涨， 这很可能是震荡区间
28:19 - 28:23
EN: When the market’s in a Trading Range and there are two logical locations
ZH: 如果市场处于震荡区间，并且空头有两个合理的止损选择，
28:23 - 28:27
EN: for a stop for the bears and the two stops are relatively close,
ZH: 两个止损位又比较接近的时候，
28:27 - 28:31
EN: it’s usually better to use the higher stop because the market often goes
ZH: 选用更高的那个止损通常是更好的选择，
28:31 - 28:34
EN: above the lower one, but not above the higher one.
ZH: 因为很多时候市场会突破较低的那个， 但不会突破较高的那个
28:34 - 28:37
EN: So it goes above the lower one and reverses down.
ZH: 可能在突破较低的止损之后，就反转下跌
28:41 - 28:45
EN: (I talk more about this in the video on how to trade in Trading Ranges.)
ZH: （在如何交易震荡行情的视频中，我对这一点有更详细的讲解）
Slide 015
Time: 28:50
Bilingual Transcript
28:52 - 28:54
EN: Remember, you have some bears who sold here
ZH: 一些在这里做空的空头
28:54 - 28:57
EN: and put a stop above the top of the entire bear trend.
ZH: 会把止损放在整个下降趋势的起跌点上方
28:57 - 29:01
EN: Some bears sold here and they get out above this high,
ZH: 一些空头在这里卖出做空，在这个高点上方离场，
29:01 - 29:04
EN: but they’ll sell again on a reversal down.
ZH: 但他们会在反转下跌时再次入场做空
29:04 - 29:09
EN: The scale-in bears who sold here, some would sell below a bear bar here.
ZH: 一些空头在这里卖出之后， 会逢高加仓，比如在这根阴线下方卖出更多
29:09 - 29:11
EN: Others would wait for the second leg up
ZH: 一些空头会等待第2段上涨结束，
29:11 - 29:14
EN: and then sell below a bear bar here or here.
ZH: 然后在这里或这里的阴线下方卖出做空
29:14 - 29:17
EN: This is especially good because it went
ZH: 这个做空入场点非常好，
29:17 - 29:20
EN: above one resistance level, but not above the second.
ZH: 因为它突破了一个阻力位，但没有突破另一个
29:21 - 29:24
EN: You have some bears selling here and selling more here,
29:24 - 29:27
EN: stop above the top of the entire bear leg.
ZH: 止损放在整个下降趋势的起跌点上方
29:32 - 29:36
EN: Many will place a limit order to get out at their original entry price,
ZH: 很多人会在初始入场价格挂限价买单离场
29:36 - 29:39
EN: trying to get out breakeven on their first sell,
ZH: 这样他们的初始仓位是打平的——
29:39 - 29:43
EN: even though the market retraced almost all of the bear trend.
ZH: 尽管这个下降趋势几乎被完全反转——
29:43 - 29:46
EN: They get out breakeven on this sell.
ZH: 他们的初始仓位仍然可以打平离场
29:46 - 29:49
EN: On this sell, they enter here as well and they make a profit,
ZH: 而加仓的部分可以赚到钱
29:49 - 29:54
EN: and you can see when the market got to this original entry price, it bounced.
ZH: 可以看到，当市场回到他们的初始入场点时， 有一些反弹
29:54 - 29:56
EN: That’s a sign that some traders were buying,
ZH: 说明这里有不少买盘
29:56 - 30:00
EN: and some of those traders were bears buying back shorts.
ZH: 其中一部分就来自于那些止盈离场的空头
30:01 - 30:03
EN: I call these scale-in bears.
ZH: 我称这些人为“加仓的空头”
30:03 - 30:07
EN: The bears sold here; they added to their position on the reversal down.
ZH: 空头在这里卖出；然后在反转下跌时卖出更多
30:07 - 30:08
EN: They scaled in.
ZH: 他们加仓了
30:08 - 30:11
EN: They are scale-in bears.
ZH: 所以是加仓的空头
Slide 016
Time: 30:13
Bilingual Transcript
30:19 - 30:25
EN: We have three strong pushes down, even below the bottom of this strong bull leg,
ZH: 3次强势的下跌，甚至跌破了这个上涨波段的起涨点
30:25 - 30:28
EN: and now we have an exceptionally strong reversal up.
ZH: 然后出现了这根惊人的超级大阳线
30:29 - 30:31
EN: Traders will look to buy the close of this bar,
ZH: 交易者会在它的收盘买入，
30:31 - 30:35
EN: and they’ll buy any pullback – for example, above this bar,
ZH: 也会在回调时买入——比如在这根K线上方， 这是高1买入点；
30:34 - 30:38
EN: a High 1 buy, or even with a limit order below this bar,
ZH: 也会在回调时买入——比如在这根K线上方， 这是高1买入点； 或者可以在这根K线的低点挂限价买单
30:38 - 30:45
EN: betting that there’ll be a second leg up and the reversal down
ZH: 押注会有第2段上涨， 任何下跌都会变成牛旗，而不是下降趋势
30:41 - 30:45
EN: will become a bull flag and not a bear trend.
ZH: 押注会有第2段上涨， 任何下跌都会变成牛旗，而不是下降趋势
30:47 - 30:54
EN: They can buy the close, they can buy with a stop above the high
ZH: 可以在它的收盘买入，可以在这个小牛旗的高点上方买入， 这是一根漂亮的做多信号K线
30:50 - 30:54
EN: of this small bull flag, a decent looking bull signal bar.
ZH: 可以在它的收盘买入，可以在这个小牛旗的高点上方买入， 这是一根漂亮的做多信号K线
30:55 - 30:57
EN: Their stop is either below the bottom of the Buy Climax
ZH: 他们的止损要么放在抢购高潮的起点下方，
30:57 - 31:00
EN: or below the bottom of the entire bull trend.
ZH: 要么放在整个上涨趋势的起涨点下方
31:01 - 31:06
EN: When you buy a close like this, there’s always a possibility
ZH: 如果你要在这种大阳线的收盘买入， 一定要考虑到深度回调的可能性
31:04 - 31:06
EN: that the market could pull back very deeply,
ZH: 如果你要在这种大阳线的收盘买入， 一定要考虑到深度回调的可能性
31:06 - 31:09
EN: all the way down to below the bottom of this Buy Climax.
ZH: 甚至可能一直回调到这根大阳线（抢购高潮）的起涨点
31:10 - 31:14
EN: If it does, then a Trading Range is more likely than a bull trend.
ZH: 如果确实是这样，那么更有可能是震荡区间，而不是上涨趋势
31:14 - 31:18
EN: But if it’s a Trading Range, a bear leg will be followed by a bull leg,
ZH: 但如果是震荡区间，那么在下跌之后就会再次上涨
31:18 - 31:21
EN: and the traders who buy here can put a stop here or here.
ZH: 所以在这里买入的多头可以把止损放在这里或这里
31:21 - 31:26
EN: Probably will be able to avoid a loss, and usually are able to make a profit
ZH: 这样做很大概率可以避免亏损，通常是能够赚钱的
31:26 - 31:29
EN: because after that selloff, we’ll have big up,
ZH: 因为就算有这么深度的回调，也会再次上涨
31:29 - 31:31
EN: big down, big confusion – Trading Range.
ZH: 大跌、大涨、大的困惑——震荡区间
31:31 - 31:36
EN: The market probably will trade back up here
ZH: 所以市场很可能会再次回到这里， 形成震荡区间的顶部
31:33 - 31:36
EN: to create a top to the Trading Range.
ZH: 所以市场很可能会再次回到这里， 形成震荡区间的顶部
31:41 - 31:46
EN: We have a strong bull breakout, bad follow-through here and again here.
ZH: 强势的大阳线突破，但是这里和这里的跟随都不好
31:46 - 31:48
EN: Possibly this is a bull leg in a Trading Range
ZH: 所以可能只是震荡区间中的快速上涨
31:48 - 31:50
EN: and it could be a very deep pullback.
ZH: 不排除会有深度回调的可能性
31:51 - 31:58
EN: Now we have a Wedge.
ZH: 现在这里有一个楔形顶， 3次向上推动——1，2，3；或者1，2，3
31:53 - 31:58
EN: Three pushes up – one, two, three or one, two, three.
ZH: 现在这里有一个楔形顶， 3次向上推动——1，2，3；或者1，2，3
31:58 - 32:02
EN: Even though three did not go above two, it’s still three pushes up.
ZH: 即使第3推没有超过第2推，但它仍然是3次上涨
32:02 - 32:04
EN: I call that a truncated Wedge,
ZH: 我称之为“缩减版的楔形”
32:04 - 32:06
EN: where the third push does not go above the second.
ZH: 其中第3推没有超过第2推
32:06 - 32:11
EN: Computers still treat it like a Wedge, and they’ll look to sell a reversal down,
ZH: 电脑程序仍然会把它当作楔形，并会在反转下跌时卖出
32:11 - 32:14
EN: and bulls will get out on a reversal down.
ZH: 多头会在反转下跌时离场
32:16 - 32:19
EN: Different ways to draw the Wedges.
ZH: 楔形有不同的画法
32:19 - 32:21
EN: Different computers see them differently.
ZH: 不同的电脑程序有不同的算法和选择
32:21 - 32:24
EN: Also, one, two, three.
ZH: 这样也可以——1，2，3
32:24 - 32:26
EN: Like I said, even though it’s a slightly Lower High
ZH: 就像之前所说，即使第3次上涨是略微降低的高点，
32:26 - 32:30
EN: for the third push, it still functions as a Wedge.
ZH: 但它和楔形的功能是一样的
32:30 - 32:31
EN: That’s three pushes up.
ZH: 都是3次向上的推动
Slide 017
Time: 32:35
Bilingual Transcript
32:35 - 32:39
EN: Micro Double Top, a bear inside bar.
ZH: 小双顶，空头孕线
32:39 - 32:41
EN: Many bulls will exit there,
ZH: 很多多头会在这里离场
32:41 - 32:44
EN: betting that it’s a failed breakout above a prior high.
ZH: 押注突破前期高点的尝试会失败
32:44 - 32:46
EN: We’re probably evolving into a Trading Range.
ZH: 押注市场正在演变成为震荡区间
32:46 - 32:49
EN: We have a Wedge selloff, we have a Wedge rally.
ZH: 在楔形下跌之后，又是楔形上涨
32:49 - 32:53
EN: It’s reasonable to exit there, concluding that the premise
ZH: 所以在这里离场是合理的，
32:53 - 32:56
EN: of a strong bull trend is no longer valid.
ZH: 因为强上涨趋势的前提已经不再成立
32:56 - 32:58
EN: A Trading Range is more likely.
ZH: 更有可能是震荡区间
33:02 - 33:06
EN: And now we have 3 consecutive bear bars closing on or near their lows.
ZH: 现在出现了连续3根阴线收在低位
33:06 - 33:08
EN: Decent size bodies.
ZH: 体积都非常不错
33:08 - 33:10
EN: The bulls have a bull flag.
ZH: 多头也许会把它看作是牛旗
33:10 - 33:12
EN: They got a breakout, and now we have a bear breakout.
ZH: 看作是多头突破之后的回调
33:12 - 33:16
EN: Again, the premise of a bull trend is no longer valid.
ZH: 然而之前讲过，上涨趋势的前提已经不再成立
33:16 - 33:20
EN: Probably the best the bulls get is a bull leg in
ZH: 多头能得到的最好结果，很可能也就是一个震荡区间而已
33:19 - 33:25
EN: what will become a Trading Range, and possibly it could be a reversal
ZH: 多头能得到的最好结果，很可能也就是一个震荡区间而已 甚至可能是反转——上涨趋势转为下降趋势
33:23 - 33:25
EN: - bull trend into a bear trend.
ZH: 甚至可能是反转——上涨趋势转为下降趋势
33:31 - 33:35
EN: After 3 consecutive bear bars, the remaining bulls, many of them,
ZH: 在连续3根阴线之后，很多剩下的多头， 会在那根K线的收盘离场
33:35 - 33:46
EN: will exit on the close of that bar, and bears will sell as well,
ZH: 空头也会开始做空，押注市场正在反转下跌， 会跌回到抢购高潮的起涨点
33:39 - 33:46
EN: betting that the market is reversing and that we’ll get down
ZH: 空头也会开始做空，押注市场正在反转下跌， 会跌回到抢购高潮的起涨点
33:43 - 33:46
EN: to the bottom of the Buy Climax, and that the bull trend
ZH: 空头也会开始做空，押注市场正在反转下跌， 会跌回到抢购高潮的起涨点
33:46 - 33:50
EN: in fact is simply a bull leg in what will become a big Trading Range.
ZH: 押注这只是一个大震荡区间中的一段上涨
33:55 - 33:58
EN: A bull trend has a series of Higher Lows.
ZH: 总结：上涨趋势需要低点不断抬高
Slide 018
Time: 33:55
Bilingual Transcript
33:58 - 34:01
EN: If the market falls below a major Higher Low,
ZH: 如果一个重要的低点被跌破，
34:01 - 34:04
EN: then the premise of a bull trend is no longer valid.
ZH: 那么上涨趋势的前提就不再成立
34:04 - 34:07
EN: The market’s probably in a Trading Range or a bear trend.
ZH: 市场很可能已经处于震荡区间或下降趋势
34:08 - 34:12
EN: Likewise, a bear trend has a series of Lower Highs.
ZH: 同样，下降趋势需要高点不断降低
34:12 - 34:17
EN: As long as pullbacks respect major Lower Highs and do not go above them,
ZH: 只要前期的反弹得到了尊重，没有被突破
34:17 - 34:20
EN: the premise of a bear trend is still good.
ZH: 那么下降趋势的前提就仍然成立
34:20 - 34:22
EN: The market is still in a bear trend.
ZH: 市场仍然处于下降趋势
34:22 - 34:28
EN: If it gets above a major Lower High, the market probably has evolved
ZH: 如果一个重要的高点被突破， 那么市场很可能已经变成了震荡区间
34:26 - 34:30
EN: into a Trading Range and possibly has reversed into a bull trend.
ZH: 如果一个重要的高点被突破， 那么市场很可能已经变成了震荡区间 甚至可能被反转成上涨趋势
34:31 - 34:35
EN: Any time you’re taking a trade, you’re taking it based upon a belief, a premise.
ZH: 任何时候，你入场交易都基于某个前提
34:35 - 34:37
EN: For example, if you’re buying in a bull trend,
ZH: 例如，如果你在上涨趋势中买入，
34:37 - 34:39
EN: you believe the market’s in a bull trend.
ZH: 说明你相信市场处于上涨趋势
34:40 - 34:41
EN: Trends do not last forever.
ZH: 但是趋势不会永远持续
34:41 - 34:44
EN: If your premise of a bull trend is no longer valid,
ZH: 如果上涨趋势的前提不再成立，
34:45 - 34:48
EN: do not continue to trade the market like a bull trend.
ZH: 那就不要再按照上涨趋势去交易
34:48 - 34:50
EN: Exit and then reevaluate what to do.
ZH: 而是应该先离场，然后重新评估后续怎么做
34:51 - 34:53
EN: The same is true for a bear trend.
ZH: 下降趋势也是一样
34:53 - 34:56
EN: If your premise of a bear trend is no longer valid,
ZH: 如果下降趋势的前提不再成立
34:56 - 35:00
EN: exit and then look for your next trade, and trade in a way
ZH: 那就离场，寻找下一个机会，
35:00 - 35:03
EN: that’s appropriate for the current market condition.
ZH: 并且按照适合当前价格行为的方法去交易
35:08 - 35:09
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
35:09 - 35:11
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
35:11 - 35:15
EN: This is the fourth of seven videos on protective stops.
ZH: 保护性止损的第4节课，就先讲到这里