al-brooks-course
37B - How to Trade
Raw transcript and slide notes for 37B - How to Trade.
Overview
- Slides: 28
- Transcript segments: 828
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:03
Bilingual Transcript
00:03 - 00:04
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:04 - 00:07
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:07 - 00:11
EN: This is the second of two videos on how to trade.
ZH: 这是关于如何交易的第2节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:13
Bilingual Transcript
00:14 - 00:17
EN: In this video, I talk about the market cycle.
ZH: 这节课，我主要想讲市场周期
00:17 - 00:22
EN: Every chart and every part of every chart is either in a breakout, a channel,
ZH: 每张K线图，以及K线图的每一个部分， 都处于突破、通道、或震荡区间中
00:21 - 00:26
EN: or a Trading Range, and it’s important to learn to recognize
ZH: 每张K线图，以及K线图的每一个部分， 都处于突破、通道、或震荡区间中 重要的是学会识别市场目前的行为
00:25 - 00:34
EN: what the chart is currently doing because you trade differently depending upon
ZH: 重要的是学会识别市场目前的行为 因为在市场周期的不同阶段，交易的方式也会有所不同
00:30 - 00:34
EN: what part of the market cycle the market is currently in.
ZH: 因为在市场周期的不同阶段，交易的方式也会有所不同
00:35 - 00:39
EN: Next I’m talking a little bit about the Trader’s Equation and the 40/60 Rule.
ZH: 然后我也会讲到数学期望，以及40-60法则
00:39 - 00:44
EN: 10% of the time, 10% of the bars on any chart are in a strong breakout
ZH: 在任何K线图上，只有10%的时间， 或者说只有10%的K线，是处于强势突破状态的
00:44 - 00:48
EN: and traders should only trade in the direction of the trend.
ZH: 此时，交易者只应该顺着趋势的方向交易
00:48 - 00:52
EN: But 90% of the bars are either in a channel or a Trading Range,
ZH: 但90%的K线要么处于通道中，要么处于震荡区间中
00:53 - 01:01
EN: and when that’s the case, there’s a 40% to 60% chance
ZH: 这种情况下，市场有40
60%的概率上涨， 4060%的概率下跌
00:57 - 01:01
EN: that the market will go up, 40% to 60% chance the market will go down,
ZH: 这种情况下，市场有40
60%的概率上涨， 4060%的概率下跌
01:01 - 01:05
EN: and if you structure your trades correctly and manage your trades correctly,
ZH: 如果你正确构建和管理交易
01:05 - 01:10
EN: you can make money buying or selling during 90% of the bars on the chart.
ZH: 那么在K线图上90%的K线中，不管做多做空，都可以赚钱
01:11 - 01:14
EN: Finally, I’m going to be talking about default targets.
ZH: 最后，我会讲到默认的止盈目标
01:14 - 01:19
EN: In case you can’t decide when you should get out with a trade,
ZH: 如果你无法决定什么时候离场
01:19 - 01:23
EN: it’s always good to have a rule, and I’ll talk about some simple rules
ZH: 最好有一个规则（保证最低目标）， 所以我会说一些基本的规则
01:23 - 01:29
EN: that traders can use to determine
ZH: 交易者可以根据它们来决定，什么时候离场在数学上是合理的
01:25 - 01:29
EN: an appropriate mathematical time to exit a trade.
ZH: 交易者可以根据它们来决定，什么时候离场在数学上是合理的
Slide 002
Time: 01:30
Bilingual Transcript
01:32 - 01:33
EN: The market cycle.
ZH: 市场周期
01:33 - 01:37
EN: The market is in a never-ending cycle.
ZH: 市场处于一个永不停息的周期中
01:37 - 01:41
EN: It keeps recycling the same patterns over again,
ZH: 它不断重复相同的结构
01:41 - 01:45
EN: and it’s important to learn to recognize where you are in the cycle
ZH: 重要的是学会识别，目前市场处于什么周期
01:45 - 01:49
EN: because you trade differently depending on what the market is doing.
ZH: 因为根据市场的不同行为，你的交易方式也会有所不同
01:50 - 01:55
EN: For example, we have a bear channel and then a reasonably good bull breakout.
ZH: 例如，下降通道，然后有一个相当不错的多头突破
01:56 - 01:58
EN: A bull breakout, you trade it one way.
ZH: 多头突破时，只有一种交易的方式
01:58 - 02:01
EN: You only want to be buying when it’s in a strong bull breakout.
ZH: 在强势的多头突破时，你只能买入
02:01 - 02:04
EN: However, when it’s in a channel, you always want to be buying,
ZH: 然而，当它在通道中时，买入当然是可以的
02:04 - 02:08
EN: but sometimes if the channel is broad enough, you can sell as well.
ZH: 但有时如果通道足够宽，你也可以卖出做空
02:11 - 02:14
EN: And then after a channel, it usually evolves into a Trading Range.
ZH: 在通道之后，通常会演变为震荡区间
02:14 - 02:18
EN: If the legs in the Trading Range are reasonably broad,
ZH: 如果震荡区间的幅度足够宽
02:18 - 02:20
EN: you can buy low, sell high, and scalp.
ZH: 你可以低买、高卖，剥头皮赚快钱
02:20 - 02:24
EN: If the range is too tight like this, it’s better to not trade at all.
ZH: 如果区间像这样，非常窄，那么最好完全不要交易
Slide 003
Time: 02:25
Bilingual Transcript
02:31 - 02:38
EN: A big fallacy about trading is that there are really important times to enter,
ZH: 关于交易的一个最大的误区是：入场时机非常重要， 交易者必须在特定的时候入场
02:36 - 02:38
EN: and those are the only times a trader should enter.
ZH: 关于交易的一个最大的误区是：入场时机非常重要， 交易者必须在特定的时候入场
02:38 - 02:46
EN: But if you look at the volume on any bar, on any chart, on any timeframe,
ZH: 但是，在任何时间周期，任何图上的任何K线， 它们的成交量都非常大
02:43 - 02:50
EN: there’s good volume all the time, and that tells you
ZH: 但是，在任何时间周期，任何图上的任何K线， 它们的成交量都非常大 这说明机构认为任何时间都是好的交易机会
02:47 - 02:50
EN: that institutions feel like any time is a good time to trade.
ZH: 这说明机构认为任何时间都是好的交易机会
02:52 - 02:57
EN: And that is absolutely true, and if you learn how to read charts,
ZH: 这绝对是真的，如果你学会如何阅读价格行为
02:57 - 03:00
EN: you can structure trades pretty much on any bar, at any time.
ZH: 你几乎可以在任何时间，任何K线上，构建合理的交易
03:01 - 03:05
EN: As long as you structure the trade
ZH: 只要在构建交易时，数学期望是正的
03:03 - 03:05
EN: so that you have a positive Trader’s Equation,
ZH: 只要在构建交易时，数学期望是正的
03:05 - 03:12
EN: the probability of winning times the reward is greater
ZH: 也就是让【胜率 _ 利润】，大于【亏损的概率 _ 风险】
03:09 - 03:12
EN: than the probability of losing times the potential loss.
ZH: 也就是让【胜率 _ 利润】，大于【亏损的概率 _ 风险】
03:12 - 03:14
EN: That is an acceptable trade.
ZH: 那么这笔交易就可以接受
03:16 - 03:19
EN: Although you can enter at any time in the market cycle
ZH: 尽管你可以在市场周期的任何时间入场——
03:19 - 03:22
EN: - during a breakout, during a channel, during a Trading Range
ZH: 在突破期间、通道期间或震荡期间——
03:22 - 03:25
EN: - some traders prefer certain types of setups.
ZH: 一些交易者更喜欢特定的交易机会
03:25 - 03:28
EN: Some traders prefer breakouts.
ZH: 一些交易者喜欢突破
03:28 - 03:29
EN: Some traders like channels.
ZH: 一些交易者喜欢通道
03:29 - 03:31
EN: Other traders like Trading Ranges.
ZH: 其他交易者喜欢震荡区间
03:31 - 03:32
EN: It doesn’t matter.
ZH: 都可以
03:32 - 03:35
EN: If you’re comfortable trading all three, trade all three.
ZH: 如果你对三者都很擅长，那么就全都可以做
03:37 - 03:42
EN: I think it’s often helpful to try to structure binary decisions.
ZH: 我认为二元决策系统是一个很好的思维方法
Slide 004
Time: 03:40
Bilingual Transcript
03:43 - 03:46
EN: Binary decision means give yourself two choices.
ZH: 二元决策的意思是，给自己两个选择
03:46 - 03:53
EN: Is it a bull trend or bear trend? Is it a bull leg in a Trading Range,
ZH: 是上涨趋势还是下降趋势？ 是震荡区间中的上涨波段，还是上涨趋势中的上涨波段？
03:50 - 03:53
EN: or is it a bull leg in a bull trend?
ZH: 是上涨趋势还是下降趋势？ 是震荡区间中的上涨波段，还是上涨趋势中的上涨波段？
03:55 - 03:59
EN: If it’s a bull trend,
ZH: 如果是上涨趋势，是突破还是通道？
03:57 - 03:59
EN: is it a breakout or a channel?
ZH: 如果是上涨趋势，是突破还是通道？
04:00 - 04:03
EN: And you trade it differently if it’s a breakout or a channel.
ZH: 面对突破和通道，你的交易方式会有所不同
04:06 - 04:12
EN: Bull breakout, you need to get long and you need
ZH: 多头突破，你需要做多，至少是很小的仓位， 可以用任何方法买入
04:08 - 04:12
EN: to buy at least a small position, and you buy for any reason.
ZH: 多头突破，你需要做多，至少是很小的仓位， 可以用任何方法买入
04:14 - 04:19
EN: And in a channel, a lot of times traders prefer to buy pullbacks.
ZH: 而在通道中，很多时候交易者更喜欢在回调时买入
04:19 - 04:22
EN: So you get a pullback to around the middle of the last bull leg;
ZH: 比如在回调到50%附近时买入；
04:22 - 04:24
EN: you buy on the reversal up.
ZH: 在重新上涨时买入
04:24 - 04:27
EN: A bull leg, a pullback, buy on the reversal up.
ZH: 上涨波段，回调，重新上涨时买入
04:27 - 04:29
EN: Bull flag, buy the breakout.
ZH: 牛旗，再次突破时买入
04:36 - 04:42
EN: When a channel is reasonably tight like this,
ZH: 如果上涨通道这么窄，最好只做多不做空
04:39 - 04:42
EN: when it’s a bull channel, it’s usually better only to buy.
ZH: 如果上涨通道这么窄，最好只做多不做空
04:43 - 04:46
EN: By tight, I mean the pullbacks are only 1, 2, or 3 bars.
ZH: 窄的定义是，回调只持续1、2或3根K线
04:46 - 04:47
EN: They don’t drop down very far.
ZH: 回调幅度不会很大
04:49 - 04:53
EN: It’s much easier to make money as a bull than as a bear in a Tight Channel.
ZH: 在窄上涨通道中，做多比做空更容易赚钱
04:54 - 04:58
EN: And whenever the market’s in either a breakout or a channel,
ZH: 无论市场是处于突破，还是通道，
Slide 005
Time: 04:55
Bilingual Transcript
04:58 - 05:01
EN: especially a Tight Channel, it’s good if you can swing
ZH: 尤其是在窄通道里面，最好做波段交易
05:01 - 05:03
EN: at least part of your trade.
ZH: 至少一部分仓位做波段 （注：比如，剥头皮止盈一半，剩下的继续持有）
05:06 - 05:14
EN: Can you sell in a bull channel? Well, I would only sell in a bull channel
ZH: 可以在上涨通道中做空吗？ 只有当通道足够宽，有足够的剥头皮空间时，我才会做空
Slide 006
Time: 05:10
Bilingual Transcript
05:10 - 05:14
EN: if it’s reasonably broad and if there’s enough room for scalps,
ZH: 只有当通道足够宽，有足够的剥头皮空间时，我才会做空
05:14 - 05:17
EN: because you don’t want to be selling at this high
ZH: 否则，如果你在这个高点挂限价卖单做空
05:17 - 05:21
EN: and then have the market go up and never drop back below this high.
ZH: 市场直接突破了它（此时你的限价卖单成交）， 然后永远没有再跌回来
05:21 - 05:24
EN: This is a very Tight Channel, and it’s difficult
ZH: 这是一个非常窄的通道
05:24 - 05:26
EN: to make money even selling this high.
ZH: 就算在这个高点挂单，也很难赚到钱
05:26 - 05:29
EN: You sell here, try to buy for a scalp – when the channel is tight
ZH: 你在这里卖出，尝试赚快钱离场——当通道很窄时
05:29 - 05:33
EN: and the pullbacks only last 1 bar or so, it’s harder to make money.
ZH: 回调仅仅持续一两根K线，很难赚到钱
05:38 - 05:40
EN: In general if you are selling in a channel,
ZH: 通常，如果你想在（宽）通道中做空
05:40 - 05:43
EN: the first time you sell it’ll be limit orders.
ZH: 第1次用限价卖单入场
05:43 - 05:47
EN: So you sell at the high of the prior bar, maybe scale in higher.
ZH: 你在前1根K线的高点卖出，也许会在更高的位置加仓
05:50 - 05:54
EN: And it’s better only to do it if the market’s in a stair pattern,
ZH: 只有当市场处于阶梯模式的时候，才可以这样做——
05:54 - 05:58
EN: where the market breaks to a new high
ZH: （阶梯模式的意思是）市场突破新高，然后回调到突破点的下方
05:56 - 05:58
EN: and then pulls back below the breakout point.
ZH: （阶梯模式的意思是）市场突破新高，然后回调到突破点的下方
05:58 - 06:02
EN: Breaks above this high, pulls back below the breakout point.
ZH: 突破这个高点，又回调到突破点下面
06:05 - 06:08
EN: So you sell the high and you hope to make a scalp.
ZH: 你在前期高点卖出，希望能剥头皮赚快钱
06:08 - 06:11
EN: Again, this channel is so tight, very difficult to make a scalp
ZH: 再次强调，这个通道非常窄，很难进行剥头皮交易
06:11 - 06:13
EN: because the pullbacks are very small.
ZH: 因为回调的幅度太小了
06:14 - 06:16
EN: In general, a Tight Channel like this,
ZH: 通常，这么的窄通道
06:16 - 06:18
EN: it’s a breakout on a higher timeframe chart.
ZH: 在更高时间周期的K线图上，就是突破
06:18 - 06:21
EN: It’s usually better only to look to buy.
ZH: 通常最好只考虑做多
06:26 - 06:30
EN: A skilled limit order trader can sometimes make money
ZH: 一个熟练的限价单交易者有时可以在这么窄的通道中做空赚钱
06:29 - 06:36
EN: in a Tight Channel like this, but again, unless the pullbacks are more
ZH: 一个熟练的限价单交易者有时可以在这么窄的通道中做空赚钱 但再次强调，除非回调足够深， 否则最好只做多、不做空
06:33 - 06:36
EN: than just a bar or two, it’s usually better only to buy.
ZH: 但再次强调，除非回调足够深， 否则最好只做多、不做空
06:38 - 06:44
EN: However, a good limit order trader can avoid a loss
ZH: 然而，一个好的限价单交易者能够管理好他的交易， 从而避免亏损
06:42 - 06:44
EN: if he manages his trade well.
ZH: 然而，一个好的限价单交易者能够管理好他的交易， 从而避免亏损
06:44 - 06:47
EN: Even selling at the high of this bar – so you sell here
ZH: 即使在这根K线的高点卖出——假设你在这里做空了
06:47 - 06:50
EN: - you can see it never pulled back to that price,
ZH: 可以看到，市场从未回调到这个价格
06:50 - 06:53
EN: so you’re going to lose money on that trade.
ZH: 所以你会在那笔交易中亏钱
06:53 - 06:56
EN: But if you scale in higher, maybe below this bear bar, you might be able
ZH: 但如果你在更高的位置加仓，比如在这根阴线下方卖出更多
06:56 - 07:01
EN: to get out at the midpoint of your two entries and avoid a loss.
ZH: 也许你可以在两个入场点的中间打平离场，避免亏损
07:02 - 07:04
EN: Again, that’s only for skilled traders.
ZH: 再次强调，新手交易者（以及绝大部分交易者）不应该这样做
07:05 - 07:10
EN: You sell here at that high and then you sell more below a bear bar
ZH: 你在这个高点卖出，然后在阴线下方卖出更多
07:09 - 07:10
EN: on the reversal down,
ZH: 你在这个高点卖出，然后在阴线下方卖出更多
07:12 - 07:19
EN: and then you try to exit at the midpoint
ZH: 然后你尝试在中间打平离场，从而避免了亏损
07:16 - 07:19
EN: between your two entries, and you avoid a loss.
ZH: 然后你尝试在中间打平离场，从而避免了亏损
07:19 - 07:22
EN: You lose on this trade, you win on this trade,
ZH: 这部分仓位亏损，这部分仓位盈利
07:22 - 07:26
EN: and the loss is exactly equal to the win.
ZH: 亏损和盈利相互抵消
07:32 - 07:37
EN: Very often, a Trading Range begins when the market is still in a bull channel
ZH: 很多时候，上涨通道还没结束，震荡区间就开始了
Slide 007
Time: 07:35
Bilingual Transcript
07:37 - 07:41
EN: and it’s not clear yet that the Trading Range has begun.
ZH: 此时震荡区间的结构还并不清晰
07:41 - 07:45
EN: Here we got a bull breakout above a bear trend and we got a pullback.
ZH: 这里，多头突破了下降趋势线，然后回调
07:45 - 07:47
EN: Traders will buy the reversal up.
ZH: 交易者买入，押注反转上涨
07:48 - 07:54
EN: So you take the buy signals, and you can take strong sell signals,
ZH: 你可以根据做多信号K买入， 也可以根据强势的做空信号K卖出
07:54 - 07:56
EN: especially second entry shorts.
ZH: 尤其是第2做空入场点
07:58 - 08:01
EN: So you buy here, you buy a pullback here.
ZH: 你可以在这里买入，在这个回调之后买入
08:01 - 08:03
EN: Really not good shorts here.
ZH: 这里并不是很好的做空机会
08:03 - 08:06
EN: The channel’s too tight, the pullbacks are too small.
ZH: 因为通道太窄，回调太小
08:06 - 08:10
EN: But up here you get a Wedge – one, two, three – a bear bar.
ZH: 但是在这里，有一个楔形顶——1，2，3； 然后是阴线（收在最低）
08:10 - 08:13
EN: You can sell below that bear bar or maybe below here
ZH: 你可以在那根阴线下方卖出，
08:13 - 08:18
EN: for a second entry short, but you’re not going to make much money.
ZH: 或者在这根阴线下方，它是第2入场点； 但你赚不到太多钱
08:18 - 08:19
EN: You’re looking to scalp.
ZH: 只是一笔剥头皮交易而已
08:19 - 08:22
EN: You have a bull channel, which is a bull trend,
ZH: 上涨通道，这是上涨趋势
08:22 - 08:24
EN: and you’re hoping it’s converting into a Trading Range.
ZH: 你希望它正在转变为震荡区间
08:24 - 08:28
EN: And in a Trading Range, you’re not looking for a major reversal.
ZH: 在震荡区间中，你无法期待大的反转
08:28 - 08:33
EN: You’re looking for a minor reversal, a brief leg down, enough for a scalp.
ZH: 所以你要找的是小反转的机会， 一个小的下跌波段，足够让你赚到剥头皮的利润
08:36 - 08:41
EN: Wedge bull flag, a good opportunity – good reason to exit your short.
ZH: 楔形牛旗——空头止盈离场是合理的
08:41 - 08:46
EN: So you sell here and you either get out at a fixed number of ticks or pips down,
ZH: 你在这里卖出，要么在固定的点数止盈离场 （注：比如20 ticks，或者20 pips）
08:46 - 08:49
EN: or on a reversal up here from a Wedge bull flag.
ZH: 或在楔形牛旗反转上涨时离场
08:49 - 08:51
EN: And then when it gets very quiet like this,
ZH: 然后当市场变得非常安静的时候
08:51 - 08:55
EN: very tight, it’s better not to trade.
ZH: 区间太窄了，最好不要交易，停止交易
08:53 - 08:55
EN: You stop trading.
ZH: 区间太窄了，最好不要交易，停止交易
08:57 - 09:01
EN: When the market’s going down, also use binary decisions.
ZH: 当市场下跌时，也使用二元决策
Slide 008
Time: 09:00
Bilingual Transcript
09:01 - 09:06
EN: Is it a bear trend or is it a bear leg in a Trading Range?
ZH: 这是下降趋势，还是只是震荡区间中的下跌波段？
09:08 - 09:12
EN: And very often a bear channel spends a lot of time in a Trading Range,
ZH: 通常，一个下降通道中，有很多时间都在横盘震荡
09:12 - 09:15
EN: and if it is, then traders can trade in both directions
ZH: 如果是这种情况，交易者可以双向交易
09:15 - 09:17
EN: - especially if the legs are big.
ZH: ——如果通道足够宽的话
09:17 - 09:21
EN: Here, they’re not all that big, so difficult to make money buying.
ZH: 这里，并不是很宽，所以做多很难赚到钱
09:27 - 09:30
EN: Clearly a bear breakout – a big bear breakout.
ZH: 显然是空头突破——大阴线向下跌破
09:30 - 09:34
EN: Closed below the low of the past 20 bars, far below the low.
ZH: 收盘远低于过去20根K线的最低点
09:34 - 09:37
EN: Chances are there’ll be at least a small second leg down,
ZH: 大概率至少会有小的第2段下跌
09:37 - 09:41
EN: possibly a spike, pullback, and channel down.
ZH: 可能是急速、反弹，进入下降通道
09:42 - 09:43
EN: So when you see a strong breakout like this,
ZH: 当你看到这么的强势突破时
09:43 - 09:45
EN: you have to get short for any reason.
ZH: 不管用什么方法，都要去做空
09:48 - 09:50
EN: You can sell at the market, you can sell above bars,
ZH: 你可以直接市价卖出，可以在K线上方挂限价卖单
09:50 - 09:54
EN: you can sell below bars, but you need to sell at least a small position,
ZH: 你可以在K线下方挂突破卖单， 总之，至少要用很小的仓位入场做空
09:56 - 09:58
EN: either at the market or in a pullback.
ZH: 要么市价卖出，要么在反弹时卖出
09:59 - 10:01
EN: We have trend resumption down here.
ZH: 下降趋势恢复
10:01 - 10:03
EN: Another bear bar closing on its low.
ZH: 又有一根阴线收在最低，可以开仓做空
10:02 - 10:03
EN: You could sell that.
ZH: 又有一根阴线收在最低，可以开仓做空
10:03 - 10:05
EN: We’re trying to reverse up here.
ZH: 多头尝试反转上涨
10:05 - 10:08
EN: Pretty Tight Bear Channel, strong bear breakout.
ZH: 下降通道很窄，强势的空头突破
10:08 - 10:09
EN: Probably at least a Measured Move down,
ZH: 大概率至少要跌到MM目标位
10:09 - 10:12
EN: so you should bet the bull reversal will fail.
ZH: 所以你应该押注多头反转的尝试会失败
10:12 - 10:14
EN: So you sell above bars.
ZH: 所以你可以在K线上方逢高卖出
10:14 - 10:16
EN: And then here, you’ve got follow-through bars.
ZH: 然后在这里，有跟随的阴线
10:16 - 10:17
EN: You can sell closes.
ZH: 可以在它的收盘卖出
10:17 - 10:20
EN: Here, you’ve got a Double Top – this bull bar, that bull bar.
ZH: 在这里，有一个双顶——这根阳线，那根阳线
10:20 - 10:22
EN: You can sell the reversal down.
ZH: 可以在恢复下跌的时候卖出
10:22 - 10:24
EN: Here you’ve got a small Double Top.
ZH: 这里有一个小双顶
10:24 - 10:25
EN: You sell the reversal down.
ZH: 重新下跌的时候卖出
10:25 - 10:26
EN: You can call it a Triangle.
ZH: 你可以把它看作三角形
10:26 - 10:32
EN: We went up and then down, up, down, up, and you sell the reversal down.
ZH: 上涨，下跌；上涨，下跌； 上涨，再次下跌的时候卖出做空
10:35 - 10:38
EN: If the stop is far – for example, if you sell here,
ZH: 如果止损很远——例如，如果你在这里卖出，
10:38 - 10:42
EN: the stop is pretty far – you have to trade small.
ZH: 止损非常远，所以必须用小仓位交易
10:42 - 10:45
EN: And if you cannot trade small enough, do not take the trade.
ZH: 如果不能（或不愿意）减小仓位，就不要做这笔交易
10:45 - 10:48
EN: You only trade if you can manage it correctly,
ZH: 只有在能够正确管理的前提下，才进行交易
10:48 - 10:53
EN: and an important part of managing correctly is using an appropriate stop.
ZH: 设置合理的止损，是正确管理的一个重要的部分
10:57 - 11:00
EN: Spike, pullback, and then looks like we’re channeling down here.
ZH: 急速，反弹，然后形成下降通道
11:01 - 11:03
EN: Different ways to draw channels.
ZH: 通道有很多种画法
11:03 - 11:06
EN: Channels tend to become flatter as they mature.
ZH: 通道随着时间的推移趋向于变得更平缓
11:07 - 11:10
EN: In general when the channel is pretty tight
ZH: 通常，如果通道很窄
11:10 - 11:13
EN: - and this one is pretty tight – it’s better only to sell.
ZH: ——比如这个通道就很窄——最好只做空、不做多
11:13 - 11:17
EN: So you can sell maybe a 50% pullback of the last bear leg.
ZH: 你可以在50%反弹的地方卖出
11:17 - 11:23
EN: Here’s a pullback.
ZH: 反弹之后，新的下跌波段，可以在50%反弹挂限价卖单， 或者在恢复下跌时用突破卖单入场
11:18 - 11:23
EN: Here’s another bear leg, so sell somewhere in the middle
ZH: 反弹之后，新的下跌波段，可以在50%反弹挂限价卖单， 或者在恢复下跌时用突破卖单入场
11:21 - 11:23
EN: of that bear leg or on the resumption down.
ZH: 反弹之后，新的下跌波段，可以在50%反弹挂限价卖单， 或者在恢复下跌时用突破卖单入场
11:24 - 11:29
EN: And can bulls buy? They can see – if a trader bought that low,
ZH: 多头可以买入吗？看这里——如果在那个低点挂单买入
11:29 - 11:30
EN: it went up a little bit.
ZH: 市场上涨了一点点
11:30 - 11:34
EN: Maybe not enough for a scalp, but because it went back above the breakout point
ZH: 也许这点涨幅还不到剥头皮的最低目标， 但因为价格回到了突破点上方
11:34 - 11:38
EN: and did not form a gap, traders will buy the breakout below this low.
ZH: 缺口被回补了，所以有的多头会在这个低点被跌破时逢低买入
11:38 - 11:41
EN: So they’ll place a limit order at this low, get filled here,
ZH: 他们会在这个低点挂限价买单，在这里成交
11:41 - 11:43
EN: and then try to make a scalp up there.
ZH: 然后尝试在那里快速止盈，剥头皮
11:50 - 11:52
EN: A bear channel, especially a Tight Bear Channel,
ZH: 下降通道，尤其是窄下降通道
11:52 - 11:57
EN: is a trend, so it’s better to swing at least part of your short positions.
ZH: 至少保留一部分仓位做波段交易
Slide 009
Time: 11:54
Bilingual Transcript
12:01 - 12:03
EN: And again, you short for any reason.
ZH: 还是那句话，你可以用任何方法卖出做空
12:03 - 12:07
EN: You short bear closes, you short attempts to reverse up,
ZH: 在阴线收盘卖出，在反弹时卖出，
12:07 - 12:11
EN: you sell below bars as the trend is resuming down.
ZH: 当趋势恢复下跌时，在K线下方挂突破卖单，
12:11 - 12:14
EN: There are many opportunities to sell all through here.
ZH: 这里有很多卖出的机会
12:14 - 12:16
EN: You’re obviously not going to take all of them,
ZH: 当然，不是让你每个地方都去开仓/加仓
12:16 - 12:20
EN: but the point I’m making is you can enter on almost any bar.
ZH: 我想说的重点是，你几乎可以在任何K线上入场
12:20 - 12:23
EN: If you know what the market is trying to do and you’re flat,
ZH: 如果你还没有入场交易，在看到了这样的价格行为之后
12:23 - 12:27
EN: you need to get short, and there are many ways to do it.
ZH: 你应该入场做空，有很多开仓的方法
12:31 - 12:37
EN: Can you buy in a bear channel? Well, only if the bounces up
ZH: 你可以在下降通道中买入吗？可以。 前提是反弹的幅度足够大
12:35 - 12:37
EN: are big enough for at least a scalp.
ZH: 你可以在下降通道中买入吗？可以。 前提是反弹的幅度足够大
Slide 010
Time: 12:35
Bilingual Transcript
12:37 - 12:40
EN: If they’re not, if the channel is pretty tight like this,
ZH: 如果反弹很小，通道这么窄，
12:40 - 12:42
EN: usually better only to sell.
ZH: 最好只做空、不做多
12:43 - 12:45
EN: It’s a bear channel, so it’s a bear trend.
ZH: 下降通道，下降趋势
12:45 - 12:47
EN: It’s easier to make money selling.
ZH: 做空更容易赚钱
12:47 - 12:54
EN: However, traders can buy, but there’s several things you have
ZH: 做多有时也能赚钱，但是有几个前提
12:51 - 12:54
EN: to have in your favor to do that.
ZH: 做多有时也能赚钱，但是有几个前提
12:54 - 12:58
EN: First of all, you need pullbacks to go above breakout points.
ZH: 首先，反弹需要超过突破点
12:59 - 13:02
EN: This pullback went above that breakout point.
ZH: 这个反弹超过了那个突破点
13:02 - 13:05
EN: Next, you want the pullbacks to go up high enough
ZH: 其次，反弹幅度要足够大
13:05 - 13:06
EN: so that there’s room for a scalp.
ZH: 这样才有剥头皮的空间
13:06 - 13:17
EN: And finally, it’s better to only do it if you’re a very experienced
ZH: 最后，非常有经验的、稳定盈利的交易者才能这样做， 因为在下降趋势中通过做多赚钱是非常困难的
13:10 - 13:17
EN: and consistently profitable trader, because it’s too difficult
ZH: 最后，非常有经验的、稳定盈利的交易者才能这样做， 因为在下降趋势中通过做多赚钱是非常困难的
13:14 - 13:17
EN: to make money buying in a bear trend.
ZH: 最后，非常有经验的、稳定盈利的交易者才能这样做， 因为在下降趋势中通过做多赚钱是非常困难的
13:22 - 13:24
EN: Now, I said you need overlap.
ZH: 刚才，我提到需要重叠
13:24 - 13:26
EN: You need a stairs pattern.
ZH: 也就是阶梯模式
13:26 - 13:28
EN: You need pullbacks to go above breakout points.
ZH: 反弹需要超过突破点
13:29 - 13:33
EN: If you are buying in a bear channel, the very first buy you should take
ZH: 如果你在下降通道中买入做多，
13:33 - 13:38
EN: should only be a limit order buy – buying at the low
ZH: 第1笔买入应该用限价买单—— 挂在前期的低点，或它的下方
13:36 - 13:38
EN: of the prior low or buying below that low.
ZH: 第1笔买入应该用限价买单—— 挂在前期的低点，或它的下方
13:40 - 13:42
EN: Again, you should only do it if you’re an expert.
ZH: 再次强调，只有高手才能这么做
13:43 - 13:46
EN: You place a limit order to buy at this low, you get filled here.
ZH: 你在这个低点挂限价买单，在这里成交
13:46 - 13:50
EN: You place a limit order to buy at this low, you get filled there.
ZH: 你在这个低点挂限价买单，在那里成交
13:51 - 13:55
EN: Once the swings up start becoming big, then traders can start entering
ZH: 一旦反弹的波段开始变大，多头就可以开始用突破买单入场
13:55 - 14:02
EN: with stop orders, but until you have reasonably big rallies,
ZH: 但是在看到大的反弹之前，最好只用限价单逢低买入
13:59 - 14:02
EN: it’s better only to enter with limit orders.
ZH: 但是在看到大的反弹之前，最好只用限价单逢低买入
14:02 - 14:05
EN: And again, only a really skilled trader should do that,
ZH: 切记，只有真正熟练的交易者才能这么做
14:05 - 14:08
EN: and he should only do it if the pullbacks are big
ZH: 而且只有在反弹足够大的时候才能这么做
14:08 - 14:12
EN: - and this is barely big enough to do that profitably.
ZH: 而这里的反弹幅度，多头几乎是赚不到什么钱的
14:13 - 14:16
EN: And finally, you have to do it using the appropriate stop
ZH: 最重要的是，你必须设置合理的止损，
14:16 - 14:17
EN: and trading the appropriate size.
ZH: 用正确的仓位去交易
14:18 - 14:21
EN: So if you do buy – let’s say you buy here, it doesn’t go up.
ZH: 假设你在这里买入（绿色框框），它没有上涨
14:21 - 14:23
EN: You buy more here on the reversal up.
ZH: 你在向上的反转时，在这里买入更多
14:23 - 14:25
EN: There’s a small bull bar here.
ZH: ——在这根小阳线上方加仓（棕色框框）
14:28 - 14:35
EN: And then you try to get out breakeven on the first trade, right here,
ZH: 然后在这里，第一笔仓位打平，加仓的部分小赚
14:32 - 14:35
EN: and with a small profit, a scalp, on the second trade.
ZH: 然后在这里，第一笔仓位打平，加仓的部分小赚
14:38 - 14:42
EN: Whenever a trader is disappointed by what the market is doing,
ZH: 每当交易者对市场的表现感到失望时
14:42 - 14:47
EN: it’s usually better either to try to get out breakeven
ZH: 打平离场，或者小赚离场，通常是最好的选择 （注：既然已经感到失望，就千万不要再贪了！！）
14:45 - 14:47
EN: or with only a small profit.
ZH: 打平离场，或者小赚离场，通常是最好的选择 （注：既然已经感到失望，就千万不要再贪了！！）
14:49 - 14:52
EN: If the swings are big enough, you can also enter with stop orders
ZH: 如果通道足够宽，你也可以在向上反转时，
14:52 - 14:56
EN: above bull bars on the reversal up, but that’s not the case here.
ZH: 在阳线的上方挂突破买单入场，但这里不是这种情况
14:56 - 15:00
EN: These swings, the rallies are too small to be entering with stop orders
ZH: 这里的反弹太小了，用突破单赚不到钱
15:00 - 15:05
EN: because you do not want to be buying too high up
ZH: 既然反弹这么小，就不能去追涨
15:02 - 15:05
EN: when the rally is not going to go much further.
ZH: 既然反弹这么小，就不能去追涨
15:08 - 15:09
EN: Trading Range.
ZH: 震荡区间
15:09 - 15:10
EN: This is a Trading Range.
ZH: 这是一个震荡区间
15:10 - 15:15
EN: It’s also a bear channel, and very often a bear channel
ZH: 它也是一个下降通道， 下降通道经常处于震荡区间中
Slide 011
Time: 15:10
Bilingual Transcript
15:13 - 15:15
EN: is also in a Trading Range.
ZH: 它也是一个下降通道， 下降通道经常处于震荡区间中
15:16 - 15:18
EN: If it’s not clearly in a Trading Range,
ZH: 如果不是一个很明显的震荡区间，
15:18 - 15:21
EN: it’s better only to be trading in the direction of the trend.
ZH: 最好只顺着趋势的方向交易
15:23 - 15:25
EN: Here, we’re clearly in a bear trend.
ZH: 这里，明显处于下降趋势中
15:25 - 15:29
EN: We’re in a Trading Range here as well, but very tight.
ZH: 也处于震荡区间，但非常窄
15:29 - 15:31
EN: A Tight Trading Range in a bear trend,
ZH: 下降趋势中的窄震荡区间
15:31 - 15:33
EN: you certainly do not want to be buying yet.
ZH: 显然还不能买入做多
15:35 - 15:37
EN: Better only to take the sell signals.
ZH: 最好只寻找做空的信号和机会
15:39 - 15:41
EN: For the bears, it’s a Double Top bear flag.
ZH: 对于空头来说，这是一个双顶熊旗
15:41 - 15:42
EN: Here’s the neckline.
ZH: 这里是颈线
15:42 - 15:44
EN: They want a breakout and a Measured Move down.
ZH: 他们希望向下跌破，然后跌到MM目标位
15:45 - 15:47
EN: Weak rally.
ZH: 弱反弹
15:47 - 15:51
EN: If you do buy here, you have to be pretty quick to get out.
ZH: 如果你在这里买入，必须非常迅速地离场
15:51 - 15:53
EN: You cannot expect a big move up.
ZH: 你不能指望有大的上涨
15:53 - 15:54
EN: It’s a minor reversal.
ZH: 它只是小反转
15:54 - 15:56
EN: It’s a Wedge, but a very Tight Channel.
ZH: 这是一个楔形，但是通道非常窄
15:56 - 16:00
EN: Probably a minor reversal and a Trading Range, and that means you’re looking
ZH: 大概率只是小反转，是熊旗（震荡区间）
16:00 - 16:05
EN: for a scalp – maybe on a reversal back down, you take your profits right here.
ZH: 所以你做的是剥头皮——比如在反转下跌时，你在这里止盈
16:05 - 16:08
EN: Especially three pushes up – one, two, three – so it’s a Wedge bear flag.
ZH: 尤其这里是向上的3推——1，2，3——所以是楔形熊旗
16:08 - 16:10
EN: It’s a Double Top bear flag.
ZH: 这里是双顶熊旗
16:10 - 16:12
EN: You’ve got to – you’ve got to get out.
ZH: 多头必须离场
16:12 - 16:14
EN: And bears know that as well.
ZH: 空头也知道这一点
16:14 - 16:16
EN: They know that the bulls will give up,
ZH: 他们知道多头会放弃
16:16 - 16:19
EN: so what they do is they sell at the same price.
ZH: 所以他们也会在这里卖出做空
16:20 - 16:25
EN: When the range becomes extremely tight like this,
ZH: 当区间这么窄的时候，最好不要交易
16:23 - 16:25
EN: it’s better to just stop trading.
ZH: 当区间这么窄的时候，最好不要交易
16:25 - 16:28
EN: You’re not going to be making money when it’s this tight.
ZH: 在这么窄的区间里面很难赚到钱
Slide 012
Time: 16:30
Bilingual Transcript
16:30 - 16:31
EN: Bull channels.
ZH: 上涨通道
16:31 - 16:36
EN: We’re in a bull channel here, and then you can call it a breakout
ZH: 市场处于上涨通道，你可以说它是突破
16:36 - 16:37
EN: or you can call it a very Tight Bull Channel.
ZH: 也可以把它看作很窄的上涨通道
16:40 - 16:45
EN: This is a Broader Bull Channel, and the legs down are big enough
ZH: 这是一个更宽的上涨通道，回调幅度足够大， 足以让空头可以剥头皮赚钱
16:44 - 16:45
EN: for the bears to make money.
ZH: 这是一个更宽的上涨通道，回调幅度足够大， 足以让空头可以剥头皮赚钱
16:46 - 16:49
EN: And maybe even it became Always In Short here or here.
ZH: 在这里或这里，甚至一度处于单边下跌
16:49 - 16:54
EN: Some traders would think so, and so you have
ZH: 很多交易者会这样认为； 所以你只能假设它是一个宽通道
16:52 - 16:54
EN: to assume it’s a Broad Bull Channel.
ZH: 很多交易者会这样认为； 所以你只能假设它是一个宽通道
16:54 - 16:59
EN: Here we have a breakout, not particularly strong, and then a pullback.
ZH: 连续的阳线，突破，不算特别强势；然后回调
16:59 - 17:01
EN: So this is actually a very Tight Bull Channel.
ZH: 所以这实际上是一个非常窄的上涨通道
17:02 - 17:06
EN: A Tight Bull Channel is a breakout on a higher timeframe,
ZH: 窄通道在更高的时间周期上就是突破
17:06 - 17:10
EN: and a Broad Bull Channel is basically a Trading Range that’s sloped upward.
ZH: 而宽通道基本上就是一个倾斜的震荡区间
17:10 - 17:14
EN: In general, a Broad Bull Channel, you get a rally and a pullback
ZH: 通常，在宽上涨通道中，
17:14 - 17:19
EN: to around the midpoint, you want to be buying somewhere
ZH: 上涨之后会回调到50%附近， 所以多头会在上涨波段的中间三分之一买入
17:16 - 17:19
EN: in the middle third of the last leg up.
ZH: 上涨之后会回调到50%附近， 所以多头会在上涨波段的中间三分之一买入
17:21 - 17:24
EN: Another rally, buy somewhere in the middle third.
ZH: 上涨，回调，在中间三分之一买入
17:24 - 17:28
EN: Another rally, buy somewhere in the middle third or the bottom two-thirds.
ZH: 上涨，回调，在中间三分之一，或者底部三分之一买入
17:28 - 17:32
EN: Another rally, you want the pullback to go at least one-third down,
ZH: 再次上涨，预期回调的幅度至少是三分之一
17:32 - 17:36
EN: so you want to buy somewhere in the middle third, bottom third.
ZH: 所以你计划在中间三分之一，底部三分之一买入
17:41 - 17:43
EN: That’s the buy zone: the bottom two-thirds,
ZH: 那些就是买入区域：中间和底部的三分之一 （注：加起来就是下面三分之二的区域）
17:43 - 17:45
EN: the bottom half of the most recent leg up,
ZH: 或者左边上涨波段的下半部分
17:47 - 17:50
EN: and those are the ideal locations to buy.
ZH: 这些是理想的买入区域
17:50 - 17:51
EN: A rally and then a pullback.
ZH: 上涨，然后回调
17:51 - 17:53
EN: You try to buy somewhere in there.
ZH: 可以在这里的某个地方挂单买入
17:53 - 17:55
EN: Rally, a pullback.
ZH: 上涨，回调
17:55 - 17:56
EN: Try to buy here.
ZH: 在这里挂限价买单
18:00 - 18:05
EN: You can also buy – you can buy at the market, you can buy bear closes,
ZH: 你可以市价买入，你也可以在阴线的收盘买入
18:05 - 18:08
EN: betting that they’ll fail to result in a bear trend.
ZH: 押注它们不会变成下降趋势
18:08 - 18:13
EN: Or the easiest way is simply to buy a reversal up, especially above a bull bar.
ZH: 最简单的方法是，当价格反转上涨时，在阳线的上方挂突破买单
18:14 - 18:17
EN: Bulls will also buy strong bear closes.
ZH: 多头也会在大阴线的收盘买入
18:17 - 18:23
EN: Because it’s a bull trend, the bulls will bet
ZH: 因为这是一个上涨趋势，多头押注反转下跌的尝试会失败
18:20 - 18:23
EN: that the bear reversal attempts will fail.
ZH: 因为这是一个上涨趋势，多头押注反转下跌的尝试会失败
18:24 - 18:26
EN: It’s a great thing to do.
ZH: 这是一个很好的做法
18:26 - 18:29
EN: Bull trend, around a 50% pullback,
ZH: 上涨趋势，大约50%回调
18:29 - 18:32
EN: bears trying to get a breakout – it’s a bull trend.
ZH: 空头尝试向下跌破——然而这是上涨趋势
18:32 - 18:34
EN: The bear breakouts will probably fail.
ZH: 空头突破大概率会失败
18:34 - 18:37
EN: Why not buy them, betting that they’ll fail?
ZH: 何不买入，押注反转失败呢？
18:37 - 18:39
EN: Because the probability is on your side.
ZH: 概率站在多头这边
18:41 - 18:46
EN: After each strong breakout to a new high, then you have a major Higher Low.
ZH: 在每次强势突破创新高之后，都会形成一个重要的低点
18:46 - 18:48
EN: Traders raise their stops.
ZH: 然后交易者会抬高止损
18:48 - 18:51
EN: So a new high up here.
ZH: 比如这里创了新高
18:52 - 18:53
EN: Traders will raise their stops.
ZH: 交易者会把止损抬高到这里
18:55 - 18:58
EN: Tight Bull Channel, you trade it like a breakout
ZH: 窄上涨通道，就像突破一样去交易
18:58 - 19:00
EN: because it is a breakout on a higher timeframe chart.
ZH: 因为它在更高时间周期的K线图上就是一次突破
19:00 - 19:03
EN: You only want to buy.
ZH: 只能做多，不能做空
19:02 - 19:03
EN: You do not want to sell.
ZH: 只能做多，不能做空
19:03 - 19:05
EN: And you can buy for any reason.
ZH: 你可以用任何方法买入
19:05 - 19:07
EN: You can buy the third or fourth consecutive bull bar.
ZH: 可以在连续第3或第4根阳线的收盘买入
19:07 - 19:11
EN: You can buy below a bar, betting the reversal attempt will close.
ZH: 可以在K线下方挂限价买单，押注反转的尝试会失败
19:11 - 19:13
EN: You can buy a breakout above a small bar.
ZH: 可以在小K线的上方挂突破买单
19:13 - 19:16
EN: Pullback, breakout above a bull flag.
ZH: 回调，牛旗，被向上突破
19:16 - 19:19
EN: Doesn’t matter.
ZH: 不管用什么方法买入，都可以
19:17 - 19:19
EN: You’ve got to buy for any reason.
ZH: 不管用什么方法买入，都可以
19:19 - 19:23
EN: Here’s a bear channel, and parts of it look reasonably strong.
ZH: 这是一个下降通道，有的反弹看起来很强势
Slide 013
Time: 19:20
Bilingual Transcript
19:23 - 19:27
EN: Maybe some computers will see it as Always In Long.
ZH: 一些电脑程序会把它看作是单边上涨
19:27 - 19:32
EN: Whenever you have a bear channel and at times
ZH: 如果在下降通道中，有的地方看起来是单边上涨
19:30 - 19:32
EN: it looks like it might also be Always In Long,
ZH: 如果在下降通道中，有的地方看起来是单边上涨
19:32 - 19:36
EN: yet it continues to form Lower Highs and Lower Lows,
ZH: 但总的来说，高点和低点都在降低
19:36 - 19:38
EN: it’s a fairly Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 那么它就是一个很宽的下降通道
19:41 - 19:43
EN: However, something like this, very tight.
ZH: 然而，如果像这里，这么窄
19:43 - 19:46
EN: So when the market’s doing this, better only to sell.
ZH: 在这种时候，只能卖出做空
19:46 - 19:49
EN: But for the rest of it you can buy or sell.
ZH: 在其它时候，可以做多，也可以做空
19:53 - 19:59
EN: The sell zone, somewhere in the top two-thirds, top half of the prior leg down.
ZH: 卖出区域，大约在左边下跌波段的上面三分之二，或者上半部分
19:59 - 20:03
EN: Bear breakout, a pullback to the middle third, top two-thirds.
ZH: 空头突破，回调到中间三分之一，顶部三分之一
20:03 - 20:04
EN: That’s the sell zone.
ZH: 那里就是卖出区域
20:04 - 20:09
EN: Bear breakout, pullback somewhere to the middle of that – it’s the sell zone.
ZH: 空头突破，反弹到中间某个地方——卖出区域
20:14 - 20:18
EN: Bear breakout, the top two-thirds you want to be selling somewhere in there.
ZH: 空头突破，反弹到上面三分之二，可以卖出做空
20:18 - 20:22
EN: Bear breakout, top two-thirds of that breakout, you want to be selling in here.
ZH: 空头突破，反弹到上面三分之二，在这里卖出做空
20:23 - 20:27
EN: Okay? Bear breakout, the top two-thirds of that bear breakout,
ZH: 懂了吗？空头突破，反弹到上面三分之二
20:27 - 20:29
EN: so you’re looking to sell somewhere in here.
ZH: 在这里找机会去卖出做空
20:34 - 20:35
EN: Those are the sell zones.
ZH: 那些是卖出区域
20:35 - 20:38
EN: Bears are looking to sell pullbacks into the sell zone,
ZH: 空头在卖出区域等待反弹做空的机会
20:39 - 20:41
EN: and they’ll also sell a reversal back down.
ZH: 他们也会在反转下跌时做空
20:44 - 20:47
EN: So you can sell with a stop as it reverses down.
ZH: 在反转下跌时用突破卖单入场
20:47 - 20:52
EN: Now, bears believe it’s a bear trend, and they’re correct.
ZH: 空头认为这是下降趋势，他们是正确的
20:52 - 20:56
EN: So they believe any attempt by the bulls to reverse it up will fail,
ZH: 所以他们认为，多头任何反转的尝试都会失败
20:57 - 21:00
EN: and therefore bears will sell bull bars.
ZH: 因此空头会在阳线的收盘卖出
21:00 - 21:03
EN: Strong bull closes, right? Strong bull close,
ZH: 大阳线的收盘，看到了吗？大阳线
21:03 - 21:05
EN: strong bull close, strong bull close.
ZH: 大阳线，大阳线
21:05 - 21:11
EN: The bears will bet that these strong rallies will fail to get
ZH: 空头押注这些大阳线的反弹不会超过前期的重要高点
21:08 - 21:11
EN: above the top of the last major Lower High.
ZH: 空头押注这些大阳线的反弹不会超过前期的重要高点
21:13 - 21:16
EN: In other words, they’ll bet that the bear trend will resume
ZH: 也就是说，他们押注下降趋势会恢复
21:16 - 21:17
EN: and the bull reversal will fail.
ZH: 押注多头反转的尝试会失败
21:17 - 21:20
EN: So they look for a strong bull buy, and then they sell.
ZH: 所以当他们看到有大阳线收盘，他们就卖出
21:24 - 21:28
EN: Stop above the top of the most recent major Lower High.
ZH: 止损放在最近一个重要高点的上方
21:28 - 21:31
EN: Bear breakout, new low.
ZH: 向下跌破，创新低
21:31 - 21:33
EN: Reasonably strong bear breakout.
ZH: 相当强势的空头突破
21:33 - 21:37
EN: If you sell at any point after this bear breakout, your stop is up here.
ZH: 如果你在跌破之后的某个时刻卖出做空了， 你的止损在这里
21:46 - 21:49
EN: It’s a bear trend, so it’s easier to make money selling,
ZH: 这是下降趋势，所以做空更容易赚钱
21:49 - 21:52
EN: and traders should be concentrating on selling.
ZH: 交易者也确实应该专注于做空
Slide 014
Time: 21:49
Bilingual Transcript
21:52 - 21:56
EN: And because it’s a bear trend, you can sell either for a swing or for a scalp.
ZH: 因为这是下降趋势，做空可以是波段交易，也可以是剥头皮
21:56 - 21:59
EN: You can see every new low, there’s a bounce up.
ZH: 可以看到，每次新低之后都有反弹
21:59 - 22:04
EN: That tells you that bears are taking partial or full profits at new lows,
ZH: 这告诉你，空头在新低止盈部分或全部仓位
22:04 - 22:07
EN: and then they’re selling rallies, expecting another new low.
ZH: 然后他们在反弹时再次入场做空，期待继续下跌创新低
22:11 - 22:13
EN: Experienced traders can also buy reversals up.
ZH: 有经验的交易者也可以做多、做反弹
22:13 - 22:17
EN: We’ve had pretty good Buying Pressure here, pretty good Buying Pressure here,
ZH: 在这里有很不错的买压，在这里也有相当好的买压
22:17 - 22:22
EN: pretty good rally here as well, so traders will buy at the prior low
ZH: 这段反弹也很强势，所以交易者会在前期低点挂限价买单
22:22 - 22:25
EN: or on a reversal up from a prior low.
ZH: 或者在反转上涨时用突破买单做多
22:30 - 22:33
EN: In general, if you’re buying in a bear trend,
ZH: 通常，如果在下降趋势中做多
22:33 - 22:36
EN: a bear channel, it’s better only to scalp.
ZH: 最好只做剥头皮 （注：不要贪，因为都是小反转）
22:36 - 22:40
EN: So you buy here and you get out somewhere up in the sell zone
ZH: 比如你在这里买入，然后在卖出区域的某个地方离场
22:40 - 22:41
EN: where the bears will start to short.
ZH: 因为空头会在那里等着做空
22:42 - 22:43
EN: Look at this chart.
ZH: 来看这个案例
Slide 015
Time: 22:42
Bilingual Transcript
22:43 - 22:46
EN: Starts in the upper left, goes to the lower right.
ZH: 从左上角，一直到右下角
22:46 - 22:47
EN: It’s a bear channel.
ZH: 这是一个下降通道
22:47 - 22:49
EN: We’ve got Lower Highs, Lower Lows.
ZH: 高点降低，低点降低
22:49 - 22:51
EN: But if you only look at this part of the chart,
ZH: 如果看这一部分，你会发现，
22:51 - 22:54
EN: 90% of the chart is also in a Trading Range.
ZH: 90%的K线也处于震荡区间中
22:56 - 23:00
EN: As a trend gets late, as it progresses, it tends to weaken
ZH: 随着趋势发展到后期，越来越弱
23:00 - 23:03
EN: and it eventually evolves into a Trading Range.
ZH: 最终演变成震荡区间
23:03 - 23:06
EN: And when it’s in a Trading Range, even though it’s still arguably
ZH: 尽管它仍然是宽下降通道，
23:06 - 23:09
EN: a Broad Bear Channel, when it’s in a Trading Range, traders
ZH: 但几乎和震荡区间没有区别
23:09 - 23:12
EN: look to buy low, sell high, and scalp.
ZH: 所以交易者会低买、高卖、剥头皮赚快钱
23:14 - 23:16
EN: So we have a bear breakout.
ZH: 空头突破，下降通道
23:15 - 23:16
EN: You can call it a bear channel.
ZH: 空头突破，下降通道
23:16 - 23:18
EN: It evolved into a Trading Range.
ZH: 演变成震荡区间
23:18 - 23:25
EN: It’s also a Broad Bear Channel, and traders are looking
ZH: 它也是一个宽下降通道， 从新低向上反弹时，多头会买入做多
23:23 - 23:25
EN: to buy reversals up from new lows.
ZH: 它也是一个宽下降通道， 从新低向上反弹时，多头会买入做多
23:25 - 23:28
EN: Look to sell near the top of the range, either with limit orders or,
ZH: 在上沿附近卖出，要么挂限价卖单
23:28 - 23:30
EN: better yet, on a reversal down.
ZH: 更好的是在反转下跌时用突破卖单入场
23:30 - 23:33
EN: If a leg up is pretty strong, don’t take the first sell.
ZH: 如果一个上涨波段非常强势，不要在第1做空入场点卖出
23:33 - 23:35
EN: Look to take the second.
ZH: 而是等待第2入场点
23:35 - 23:38
EN: Don’t take the first, look to take the second.
ZH: 无视第1入场点，做第2个
23:38 - 23:40
EN: Don’t take the first, look to take the second.
ZH: 无视第1入场点，等第2个
23:42 - 23:47
EN: Whenever things are unclear, always wait for a second entry or for more clarity.
ZH: 每当感到不明朗的时候，等第2入场点会更加好
23:47 - 23:50
EN: And Trading Range, you want to be selling in the upper third
ZH: 在震荡区间中，应该在顶部三分之一卖出
23:50 - 23:52
EN: and then buying in the lower third.
ZH: 在底部三分之一买入
23:52 - 23:54
EN: And because it’s a Trading Range, you do not believe
ZH: 并且因为这是震荡区间
23:54 - 24:00
EN: it’s going to go up very far, you do not believe
ZH: 你知道它不会上涨太多，也不会下跌太多， 所以剥头皮，赚了就走
23:57 - 24:00
EN: it’s going to go down very far, and therefore you scalp.
ZH: 你知道它不会上涨太多，也不会下跌太多， 所以剥头皮，赚了就走
24:01 - 24:03
EN: Here’s the upper third of the Trading Range,
ZH: 这里是震荡区间的顶部三分之一
24:03 - 24:06
EN: and traders will look to sell in the upper third.
ZH: 交易者在这里卖出
24:06 - 24:10
EN: And they know that the probability is 60%, maybe higher,
ZH: 他们知道，有60%甚至更高的概率
24:10 - 24:14
EN: that the market will go down 10 ticks or 10 pips
ZH: 市场会下跌10 ticks（或pips）
24:14 - 24:17
EN: before it goes up 10 ticks or 10 pips.
ZH: 而不是先上涨10 ticks（或pips）
24:17 - 24:19
EN: Does not matter what number.
ZH: 不管是几个ticks
24:19 - 24:23
EN: X number of ticks up or down, X number of pips up or down.
ZH: 上涨或下跌X个单位
24:23 - 24:25
EN: If you’re selling in the upper third of a Trading Range,
ZH: 如果你在震荡区间顶部三分之一卖出做空
24:25 - 24:32
EN: the odds are it’ll go down before it goes up the same number of ticks or pips.
ZH: 更大的概率会先下跌X个单位，而不是先上涨X个单位
24:33 - 24:35
EN: So the math is good for the bears.
ZH: 所以数学上对空头有利
24:35 - 24:38
EN: Upper third of the range, look to sell a reversal down.
ZH: 在区间顶部三分之一，寻找反转下跌的做空机会
24:38 - 24:39
EN: Sell the reversal down.
ZH: 卖出做空
24:39 - 24:41
EN: Sell down.
ZH: 卖出做空
24:42 - 24:47
EN: In the bottom third of the range, the opposite is true.
ZH: 在区间底部的三分之一，正好反过来
24:47 - 24:53
EN: Traders look to buy because they know that the probability is 60%
ZH: 交易者会买入，因为他们知道，至少有60%的概率，
24:53 - 24:57
EN: or greater than the market is going to go up before it goes down.
ZH: 市场会先上涨，而不是会先下跌
24:57 - 24:59
EN: Up how much? Any – any amount.
ZH: 上涨多少？不管上涨多少
24:59 - 25:05
EN: Up 10 ticks, 10 pips, 20 ticks, 20 pips, before it goes down the same amount.
ZH: 可以是10 ticks（或pips），可以是20 ticks（或pips） 而不是先下跌这么多距离
25:05 - 25:08
EN: And if you’re uncertain about a reversal, wait for a second entry.
ZH: 如果你不确定会不会反转，可以等待第2个入场机会
25:10 - 25:17
EN: Everyone knows that the market cycle means
ZH: 大家都知道，市场周期的意思就是： 市场在趋势和震荡之间来回交替
25:14 - 25:17
EN: that the market alternates between trends and Trading Ranges.
ZH: 大家都知道，市场周期的意思就是： 市场在趋势和震荡之间来回交替
25:17 - 25:20
EN: If the market’s in a trend, it’ll become a Trading Range.
ZH: 如果市场处于趋势中，它最终会变成震荡区间
25:20 - 25:23
EN: If it’s in a Trading Range, it’ll become a trend,
ZH: 如果它处于震荡区间，最终会突破进入趋势
25:23 - 25:26
EN: and the trend could be down or the trend could be up.
ZH: 可能是下降趋势，也可能是上涨趋势
25:27 - 25:31
EN: So traders trade it like a Trading Range as long as it’s in a Trading Range,
ZH: 当它处于震荡区间时，交易者就按照震荡的方法高抛低吸
25:31 - 25:34
EN: and once it clearly converts into a breakout,
ZH: 而一旦出现明确的突破
25:34 - 25:38
EN: then they switch and begin to trade it like a new cycle.
ZH: 他们就会改变策略，按照新的周期去交易
25:38 - 25:39
EN: Every cycle begins with a breakout,
ZH: 每个周期都是从突破开始的
25:39 - 25:42
EN: so you go from a breakout to a channel to a Trading Range.
ZH: 从突破到通道，再到震荡区间
Slide 016
Time: 25:45
Bilingual Transcript
25:45 - 25:48
EN: I said this is also a Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 这是一个宽下降通道
25:49 - 25:52
EN: Broad Bear Channels are mostly Trading Ranges.
ZH: 宽下降通道中，大部分都是震荡区间
25:52 - 25:55
EN: During a lot of the time when the market’s in a Broad Bear Channel,
ZH: 在市场处于宽的下降通道的大部分时间里
25:55 - 25:58
EN: it’s also in a Trading Range, and that’s why if the market
ZH: 它也处于震荡区间
25:58 - 26:03
EN: is in a Broad Bear Channel, a lot of traders will trade in both directions.
ZH: 这就是为什么很多交易者会双向交易
26:04 - 26:08
EN: Some computers will look at this and say it’s Lower Highs, Lower Lows;
ZH: 一些电脑程序看到高点降低，低点降低
26:08 - 26:10
EN: it’s a bear trend, a bear channel.
ZH: 所以这是下降趋势，是下降通道
26:10 - 26:14
EN: Other computers will look at it and say it’s mostly sideways;
ZH: 有的程序看到它基本上是横向的，所以是震荡区间
26:13 - 26:14
EN: it’s a Trading Range.
ZH: 有的程序看到它基本上是横向的，所以是震荡区间
26:14 - 26:15
EN: And they trade them the same.
ZH: 但它们交易的方法都是一样的
26:15 - 26:20
EN: They look to sell in the upper third, they look to buy
ZH: 他们在顶部三分之一卖出，在底部三分之一买入， 然后剥头皮赚快钱
26:18 - 26:20
EN: in the lower third, and then they scalp.
ZH: 他们在顶部三分之一卖出，在底部三分之一买入， 然后剥头皮赚快钱
26:20 - 26:22
EN: It does not matter what you call it,
ZH: 不管你把它看作宽通道还是震荡区间
26:22 - 26:25
EN: because you’re going to be trading it the same.
ZH: 交易的方法都是一样的
26:25 - 26:28
EN: You’re going to be buying low, selling high, and scalping.
ZH: 都是逢低买入，逢高卖出，做剥头皮交易
26:28 - 26:30
EN: BL, SH, S.
ZH: 低买，高卖，剥头皮
26:38 - 26:43
EN: When you look at it this way, you can see it looks more
ZH: 如果这样看，看起来更像是一个宽下降通道—— 高点降低，低点降低
26:40 - 26:43
EN: like a Broad Bear Channel – Lower Highs, Lower Lows
ZH: 如果这样看，看起来更像是一个宽下降通道—— 高点降低，低点降低
26:43 - 26:45
EN: - but it’s still also a Trading Range.
ZH: 但它仍然是一个震荡区间
26:48 - 26:51
EN: What happens if you miss the best signal?
ZH: 万一你错过了最好的信号，该怎么办
Slide 017
Time: 26:50
Bilingual Transcript
26:51 - 26:56
EN: Well, the reality is there is no best signal and there is no perfect trade,
ZH: 实际上，不存在最好的信号，也不存在完美的交易机会
26:56 - 27:00
EN: but there are lots of good signals, and you can enter on almost any bar.
ZH: 但存在很多好的信号，你几乎可以在任何一根K线入场
27:00 - 27:01
EN: I made that point earlier.
ZH: 之前我已经讲到过这一点
27:01 - 27:06
EN: And that’s a big fallacy that traders don’t understand.
ZH: 这是很多交易者不理解的重大误区
27:06 - 27:08
EN: Strong bull breakout, you only want to buy.
ZH: 强势的多头突破，只能做多
27:08 - 27:10
EN: But once it starts to form a Trading Range,
ZH: 一旦开始形成震荡区间
27:10 - 27:13
EN: you can enter on any – any bar and make money
ZH: 你可以在任何一根K线上入场并赚钱
27:13 - 27:16
EN: if you manage your trade correctly and use an appropriate stop.
ZH: 前提是正确地管理，并且设置合理的止损
27:16 - 27:19
EN: So you can buy here or sell here and make money.
ZH: 在这里，做多，做空，都可以赚钱
27:19 - 27:22
EN: You can buy here or sell here and make money.
ZH: 这里，做多做空都可以赚钱
27:22 - 27:25
EN: If you sell here, how do you make money? Well, you sell more on a rally,
ZH: 如果你在这里卖出做空，怎么才能赚钱？ 在反弹时卖出更多
27:25 - 27:27
EN: and then when it gets back there, you get out breakeven
ZH: 然后当价格回到这里时，初始仓位打平
27:27 - 27:30
EN: on your first entry and a profit on your second entry.
ZH: 上方加仓的部分赚钱
27:32 - 27:34
EN: You can enter on almost any bar.
ZH: 你几乎可以在任何一根K线入场
27:34 - 27:36
EN: Strong bull breakout, you only want to buy.
ZH: 强势的多头突破，只能买入
27:36 - 27:37
EN: You can buy closes.
ZH: 在K线收盘买入
27:37 - 27:40
EN: You can buy below bars, betting that the reversal will fail.
ZH: 可以在K线下方挂限价买单，押注反转会失败
27:40 - 27:43
EN: You can buy above bars, betting the trend will resume up.
ZH: 可以在K线上方挂突破买单，押注继续上涨
27:43 - 27:46
EN: Pretty Tight Bear Channel, you can sell above bars,
ZH: 窄下降通道，你可以在K线上方挂限价卖单
27:46 - 27:48
EN: betting the reversal up will fail.
ZH: 押注反转上涨会失败
27:48 - 27:52
EN: Double Top bear flag, slightly Lower High, and Triangle.
ZH: 双顶熊旗，高点略微降低，三角形
27:52 - 27:53
EN: Second entry short.
ZH: 第2做空入场点
27:53 - 27:55
EN: You can sell with a stop on the way down.
ZH: 你可以在下跌过程中用突破卖单入场
27:56 - 27:59
EN: In general, if you think it might be in a Trading Range,
ZH: 通常，如果你认为市场可能处于震荡区间
27:59 - 28:03
EN: it’s better to be looking to buy low and then sell rallies and scalping.
ZH: 最好逢低买入，然后在反弹时卖出，剥头皮赚快钱
28:05 - 28:08
EN: It doesn’t matter where you begin trading in the market cycle.
ZH: 在市场周期中，入场点并没有那么重要
28:08 - 28:11
EN: You can trade in the bull trend phase.
ZH: 如果是上涨趋势
28:11 - 28:14
EN: You can buy for any reason at any time, all the way up.
ZH: 你可以在任何地方买入
28:14 - 28:17
EN: And then once you start to pull back, you have to assume you’re either going
ZH: 一旦开始回调，就要假设，市场要么会进入上涨通道
28:17 - 28:20
EN: to be forming a bull channel or a Trading Range,
ZH: 要么变成震荡区间
28:20 - 28:23
EN: and it doesn’t matter because you trade them very similarly.
ZH: 到底是什么并不重要，因为交易它们的方法非常相似
28:23 - 28:26
EN: You want to buy low, sell high, and scalp.
ZH: 都是逢低买入，逢高卖出，做剥头皮交易
28:26 - 28:31
EN: Every bar on every chart of every major market has big volume,
ZH: 任何主流品种的每一根K线，都有巨大的成交量
28:31 - 28:37
EN: and that tells you that traders, institutions,
ZH: 这说明职业交易员和机构一直都在买入卖出
28:33 - 28:37
EN: are buying and other institutions are selling all day long.
ZH: 这说明职业交易员和机构一直都在买入卖出
28:38 - 28:40
EN: And the difference – one of the differences between a beginner
ZH: 新手和高手之间的一个区别是：
28:40 - 28:49
EN: and an experienced trader is an experienced trader sees a reason to buy
ZH: 在图上90%的K线里面，高手都能看到做多和做空的理由
28:45 - 28:49
EN: and a reason to sell on 90% of the bars on the chart.
ZH: 在图上90%的K线里面，高手都能看到做多和做空的理由
28:49 - 28:51
EN: Like this, you only want to buy.
ZH: 比如这里，你只能做多
28:51 - 28:56
EN: But like this, a good trader is going to see a way to sell and a way to buy,
ZH: 但是在这里，一个优秀的交易者可以同时看到做多和做空的机会
28:56 - 29:01
EN: and then he just tries to structure a trade
ZH: 然后他会构建出一个盈利的交易计划
28:59 - 29:01
EN: that can be profitable either buying or selling.
ZH: 然后他会构建出一个盈利的交易计划
29:04 - 29:07
EN: You have to understand where you are in the market cycle,
ZH: 你必须知道目前处于市场周期中的哪个阶段
29:07 - 29:11
EN: and you have to trade appropriately, trade the appropriate size,
ZH: 然后正确地交易，用适当的仓位
29:11 - 29:16
EN: and it’s easier to make money as an experienced trader
ZH: 对于有经验的交易者来说，如果能够加仓，赚钱会更容易
29:14 - 29:16
EN: if you’re also able to scale in.
ZH: 对于有经验的交易者来说，如果能够加仓，赚钱会更容易
Slide 018
Time: 29:20
Bilingual Transcript
29:21 - 29:25
EN: I want to talk now about the Trader’s Equation and the 40/60 Rule.
ZH: 现在我想讲一下数学期望和40-60法则
29:26 - 29:28
EN: It’s a rule that I came up with.
ZH: 这是我的一个重要的法则
Slide 019
Time: 29:26
Bilingual Transcript
29:28 - 29:30
EN: I have several rules like that.
ZH: 我有几个这样的法则
29:31 - 29:33
EN: Now, look at this chart.
ZH: 现在我们来看这个案例
29:33 - 29:35
EN: Very strong breakout.
ZH: 非常强的突破
29:35 - 29:39
EN: Now, how many bars on this chart are in a very strong breakout?
ZH: 这张K线图上，有多少K线是处于非常强的突破之中？
29:39 - 29:41
EN: Maybe 100 bars on the chart.
ZH: 图上可能总共有100根K线
29:41 - 29:44
EN: Here we’ve got 4 or 5 bars in a strong breakout.
ZH: 这里有4到5根K线是处于强势突破中的
29:44 - 29:50
EN: In general, on any chart, only 5% to 10% of the bars are in a strong breakout,
ZH: 通常，在任何K线图上，只有5~10%的K线处于强势突破
29:50 - 29:53
EN: and when they are, you only want to be trading with the trend.
ZH: 在这种情况下，你只能顺趋势交易
29:53 - 29:57
EN: 90% of the bars on the chart are either in a Trading Range
ZH: 其它90%的K线，要么在震荡区间里，
29:57 - 30:03
EN: or a channel, and that is when my 40/60 Rule applies.
ZH: 要么在通道里，这就是40-60法则适用的时候
30:03 - 30:07
EN: Bulls and bears can make money taking opposite sides,
ZH: 做多和做空都可以赚钱
30:07 - 30:09
EN: and it doesn’t matter which side you take.
ZH: 不管你选择哪个方向，都可以
30:09 - 30:12
EN: So anywhere through here, if you structure your trade correctly
ZH: 在这里的任何地方，如果你正确地构建交易计划
30:12 - 30:16
EN: and manage it well, you can make money buying or selling
ZH: 并且正确地管理，做多做空都能赚钱
30:16 - 30:18
EN: - here or here or here or here.
ZH: ——在这里，这里，这里，或这里
30:18 - 30:19
EN: Same with here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
30:19 - 30:23
EN: And it doesn’t matter whether you buy or sell,
ZH: 无论做多还是做空
30:24 - 30:28
EN: and it doesn’t matter which bar you choose for your entry.
ZH: 无论你在哪根K线入场
30:29 - 30:35
EN: 90% of the bars on any chart, you can buy or sell
ZH: 任何K线图上，90%的K线， 在正确地管理下，不管做多做空都能赚钱
30:32 - 30:35
EN: and make money if you manage your trade well.
ZH: 任何K线图上，90%的K线， 在正确地管理下，不管做多做空都能赚钱
30:38 - 30:41
EN: Here we have a bear trend, a very strong breakout, and a Higher Low.
ZH: 下降趋势，多头强势突破，形成抬高的低点
30:41 - 30:44
EN: You can call it a Head and Shoulders Bottom if you want.
ZH: 你也可以把它看作是头肩底
30:44 - 30:45
EN: Doesn’t matter.
ZH: 这并不是重点
30:45 - 30:47
EN: It’s a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 这是低点抬高的大反转模式
30:47 - 30:51
EN: It’s a pullback from a very strong bull breakout, around a 50% pullback.
ZH: 非常强的多头突破，然后大约是50%回调
30:51 - 30:56
EN: The earliest entry is buying with a stop above the high of the prior bar.
ZH: 在前1根K线的高点上方挂突破买单，这是最早的做多入场点
30:57 - 31:01
EN: The risk is small – either to this low, which is the best stop,
ZH: 风险很小——要么到这个低点，这是最合理的止损位
31:01 - 31:04
EN: maybe to below the low of the signal bar.
ZH: 也可以把止损放在信号K线的低点下方
31:05 - 31:07
EN: Small risk, big reward.
ZH: 小风险，大利润
31:07 - 31:09
EN: Great risk/reward.
ZH: 盈亏比是极好的
31:09 - 31:12
EN: That always comes with low probability.
ZH: 但随之而来的是低胜率
31:12 - 31:15
EN: Whenever you have a great risk/reward for your trade,
ZH: 每当你拥有很好的盈亏比
31:15 - 31:18
EN: you know the probability of making money is small.
ZH: 你就知道赚钱的概率不高
31:18 - 31:23
EN: If you wait to buy during the breakout, your stop is much further away.
ZH: 如果等到强势突破再买入，止损就会变得很远
31:23 - 31:28
EN: The risk is greater, and there’s less profit left.
ZH: 风险更大，剩下的利润更少
31:26 - 31:28
EN: The reward is less.
ZH: 风险更大，剩下的利润更少
31:28 - 31:33
EN: So the risk/reward is worse buying during the breakout phase,
ZH: 所以在突破阶段买入，盈亏比变差了
31:33 - 31:36
EN: but the probability of making money is much higher.
ZH: 但赚钱的概率变高了
31:43 - 31:45
EN: And that always is the case.
ZH: 两者总是矛盾的
31:45 - 31:49
EN: Whenever you have a high probability trade, the risk/reward is bad.
ZH: 胜率很高的交易机会，盈亏比都不会太好
31:49 - 31:53
EN: Whenever you have a low probability trade, the risk/reward is good.
ZH: 盈亏比很好的交易机会，胜率往往不会抬高
31:53 - 31:56
EN: Both are acceptable, again, if you manage them correctly.
ZH: 只要正确地管理，两者都是可以接受的
31:58 - 32:01
EN: So let’s say you buy this Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 低点抬高的大反转，假设你在这里买入了
Slide 020
Time: 32:00
Bilingual Transcript
32:03 - 32:07
EN: It’s a weak buy signal bar, a doji instead of a bull bar,
ZH: 这个做多信号K线是比较弱的，它是十字星，不是阳线
32:07 - 32:09
EN: and it’s following a pretty strong bear bar.
ZH: 而且它的左边是大阴线
32:09 - 32:11
EN: So the probability is low.
ZH: 所以胜率不高
32:13 - 32:17
EN: In general, whenever you’re taking a low probability trade,
ZH: 通常来说，如果一笔交易的胜率不高，
32:17 - 32:22
EN: you need to get a reward equal to at least two times your Actual Risk.
ZH: 你就需要至少两倍于实际风险的利润（来弥补胜率的不足）
32:22 - 32:25
EN: So let’s say you buy above the high of this bar.
ZH: 假设你在这根K线的高点上方买入了
32:25 - 32:28
EN: Your Actual Risk was just below the low of that bar.
ZH: 你的实际风险就在那根K线的低点下方
32:31 - 32:33
EN: Let’s use your Initial Risk.
ZH: 这里用初始风险来测量
32:33 - 32:35
EN: You can call it Actual Risk; it’s about the same.
ZH: 你也可以用实际风险，这里两者并没有差很多
32:35 - 32:38
EN: So you buy here on this bar, stop is here.
ZH: 你在这根K线买入，止损在这里
32:38 - 32:40
EN: This is one times your risk.
ZH: 这里是一倍风险
32:40 - 32:42
EN: That’s two times your risk.
ZH: 这里是两倍风险
32:42 - 32:47
EN: And if you hold for a reward that is equal to two times your risk,
ZH: 如果利润是风险的两倍
32:47 - 32:52
EN: even in a low probability trade, a 40% trade, the math is good for making money.
ZH: 那么就算胜率比较低——只有40%， 根据数学，这么做也是可以盈利的
32:52 - 32:55
EN: So it is an appropriate thing to do.
ZH: 所以这是一个合理的做法
32:59 - 33:03
EN: Very strong breakout like this, do you really want to take your profits here?
ZH: 这么强的突破，你真的想在这里止盈吗？
33:03 - 33:05
EN: You can.
ZH: 可以止盈，数学上合理
33:04 - 33:05
EN: The math is okay.
ZH: 可以止盈，数学上合理
33:05 - 33:10
EN: But the minimum profit is usually not the optimum profit.
ZH: 但最低目标往往不是最好的选择
33:11 - 33:16
EN: When you see a strong reversal like this, yes, you can get out
ZH: 当你看到这样的强势反转， 你确实可以在两倍风险的地方止盈，
33:14 - 33:19
EN: at two times your risk, but chances are the market’s going to go higher,
ZH: 当你看到这样的强势反转， 你确实可以在两倍风险的地方止盈， 但市场很可能会继续上涨
33:19 - 33:22
EN: if you can try to hold for a bigger profit.
ZH: 所以尽量继续持有，赚到更大的波段
33:23 - 33:27
EN: Let’s say instead of taking the low risk, low probability trade,
ZH: 假设你没有做低风险、低胜率的交易，
Slide 021
Time: 33:25
Bilingual Transcript
33:27 - 33:30
EN: you wait for the strong bull breakout and you buy that close.
ZH: 而是等待强势突破，然后在大阳线的收盘买入
33:31 - 33:34
EN: You know the probability is high that the market’s going higher,
ZH: 你知道市场继续上涨的概率很大
33:34 - 33:36
EN: but your risk is big.
ZH: 但你的风险也很大
33:37 - 33:39
EN: However, whenever you have a high probability trade,
ZH: 当一笔交易胜率很高的时候
33:39 - 33:44
EN: you no longer have to hold for a reward that is twice as big as your risk.
ZH: 就不再需要两倍的盈亏比了
33:44 - 33:47
EN: In fact, as long as you go for a reward equal
ZH: 实际上，只要利润等于风险，
33:47 - 33:50
EN: to at least your risk, it’s a profitable strategy.
ZH: 就是一个盈利的策略
33:50 - 33:53
EN: So if you buy here, stop down here,
ZH: 如果你在这里买入，止损在这里
33:53 - 33:56
EN: one default target would be one times your risk.
ZH: 默认的目标是一倍风险
33:56 - 33:58
EN: Your Actual Risk is tiny.
ZH: 实际风险很小
33:59 - 34:02
EN: If you buy here, your Actual Risk was small.
ZH: 如果你在这里买入，实际风险非常小
34:02 - 34:04
EN: It’s just below the low of this bar.
ZH: 就在这根K线的低点下方
34:04 - 34:08
EN: High probability you could go for one times your Actual Risk,
ZH: 如果胜率很高，你可以追求一倍的实际风险
34:08 - 34:11
EN: but that is not a good thing.
ZH: 但这并不是好的选择
34:11 - 34:13
EN: Usually the minimum is not the best.
ZH: 最低目标通常不是最好的选择
34:13 - 34:15
EN: When you see a strong breakout like this,
ZH: 当看到这样的强势突破时
34:15 - 34:17
EN: I would look for some kind of a Measured Move
ZH: 我会寻找MM目标位
34:17 - 34:21
EN: based upon the height of this bull bar – so somewhere up here.
ZH: 把这根阳线的高度往上翻一倍——大概在这里
34:23 - 34:31
EN: The Trader’s Equation says that as long as you go for a reward at least equal
ZH: 只要你的利润至少等于一倍实际风险，数学期望就是合理的
34:27 - 34:31
EN: to one times your Actual Risk, the math makes sense.
ZH: 只要你的利润至少等于一倍实际风险，数学期望就是合理的
34:31 - 34:32
EN: It’s a good trade.
ZH: 这是一笔好的交易
34:32 - 34:34
EN: So you buy this close.
ZH: 你在它的收盘买入
34:34 - 34:37
EN: Your Actual Risk was to just below the low of this bar,
ZH: 实际风险就在这根K线的低点下方
34:37 - 34:40
EN: so one times Actual Risk is right here.
ZH: 所以一倍的实际风险就在这里
34:40 - 34:42
EN: Theoretically you could take your profit right here,
ZH: 理论上你可以在这里止盈
34:42 - 34:47
EN: and mathematically that would be a profitable approach to trading.
ZH: 从数学上讲，这是一个可以盈利的策略
34:47 - 34:50
EN: But it’s not a really good approach to trading
ZH: 但这显然不是一个好的选择
34:50 - 34:53
EN: because you’ll probably get a Measured Move based upon the height of this bar.
ZH: 因为大概率会涨到MM目标位
34:53 - 34:56
EN: There’s a 60% probability that you’ll get a Measured Move
ZH: 有60%的概率会涨到目标位——
34:56 - 35:00
EN: based upon the height of this bar, so why exit right here?
ZH: 把大阳线的高度往上翻一倍； 所以为什么要在这里离场呢？
35:05 - 35:06
EN: The minimum is rarely the best, right?
ZH: 最低目标往往不是最好的，对吧？
35:06 - 35:09
EN: To graduate from college, maybe you need a ‘D’ average.
ZH: 想要从大学毕业，平均成绩为D就可以了
35:10 - 35:12
EN: Are you going to be happy getting a ‘D’ average?
ZH: 每次考试都是D，你会高兴吗？
35:13 - 35:16
EN: Are you going to be happy working for the minimum wage? Right?
ZH: 老板给你发最低工资，你会高兴吗？ （注：我要跟老板拼了）
35:16 - 35:21
EN: It’s an acceptable wage, it’s a legal wage,
ZH: 最低工资是合法的，但肯定不是你最想要的
35:18 - 35:21
EN: but the minimum of anything is rarely the best.
ZH: 最低工资是合法的，但肯定不是你最想要的
35:21 - 35:25
EN: When you see a breakout like this, high probability
ZH: 当你看到这样的突破时，有很大的概率
35:25 - 35:29
EN: of at least a Measured Move up, so probably a 60% chance
ZH: 至少会涨到MM目标位，
35:29 - 35:32
EN: that the market is going to go up for some kind of a Measured Move,
ZH: 至少有60%的概率会涨到某个MM目标位
35:32 - 35:34
EN: maybe based upon the Initial Risk.
ZH: 比如一倍初始风险
35:34 - 35:36
EN: Maybe you put a stop here or you put a stop here.
ZH: 你把止损放在这里，或者放在这里
35:36 - 35:40
EN: Or a Measured Move based upon the size of this body,
ZH: 或者基于这根大阳线的高度——
35:40 - 35:43
EN: from the open of this bar to the close of that bar.
ZH: 从它的开盘到收盘，往上翻一倍
35:44 - 35:47
EN: So this is one times approximate Initial Risk,
ZH: 这里大约是一倍初始风险——
35:47 - 35:50
EN: if you put the stop below the bottom of that breakout bar.
ZH: 如果你把止损放在大阳线的下方
35:51 - 35:54
EN: Buying after a strong breakout, high probability,
ZH: 在强势突破后买入，胜率很高
35:54 - 35:56
EN: but you pay for it with big risk.
ZH: 代价是风险也很大
35:56 - 35:58
EN: The stop is far away.
ZH: 止损很远
Slide 022
Time: 36:00
Bilingual Transcript
36:01 - 36:03
EN: Here’s a pretty good bear trend.
ZH: 这里是一个很强的下降趋势
36:03 - 36:06
EN: Very Tight Channel, Tight Channel here.
ZH: 窄通道，窄通道
36:08 - 36:16
EN: Let’s say you sell the close here, after 6 consecutive bear bars,
ZH: 连续6根阴线，都收在一半以下，假设你在它的收盘卖出做空
36:14 - 36:16
EN: all 6 closing below their midpoints.
ZH: 连续6根阴线，都收在一半以下，假设你在它的收盘卖出做空
36:16 - 36:19
EN: It’s a high probability bet the market’s going lower.
ZH: 这是高胜率的做法，押注市场会继续下跌
36:19 - 36:23
EN: Not necessarily all the way here, but at least somewhat lower.
ZH: 此时你不知道会下跌这么多， 但你知道至少会再下跌一些
36:24 - 36:27
EN: You know that all trends are constantly trying to reverse,
ZH: 你知道所有的趋势都在不断尝试反转
36:27 - 36:30
EN: but you also know that markets have inertia
ZH: 但市场具有惯性
36:30 - 36:33
EN: and they tend to continue what they’ve been doing.
ZH: 市场会继续它之前的行为
36:33 - 36:39
EN: So if the market’s in a trend, chances are reversal attempts
ZH: 所以，如果市场处于趋势中，反转的尝试会失败，趋势会继续
36:36 - 36:39
EN: will fail and the trend will resume.
ZH: 所以，如果市场处于趋势中，反转的尝试会失败，趋势会继续
36:40 - 36:44
EN: Every one of these reversals is minor, and it could be hard to hold short.
ZH: 这些都只是小反弹，但一直持仓也没那么容易
36:44 - 36:47
EN: You sell here and you see the market constantly trying to reverse,
ZH: 你在这里做空之后，看到市场不断尝试反转
36:47 - 36:49
EN: but you should hold short.
ZH: 但你应该坚定持有
36:49 - 36:54
EN: And if you’re not short, you can sell above every reversal bar,
ZH: 如果你还没有入场，你可以在反转K线的上方卖出
36:54 - 36:56
EN: betting that the reversal will fail.
ZH: 押注反弹会失败
36:56 - 36:58
EN: Bet that it will be minor, a minor reversal.
ZH: 押注它只是小反转
36:58 - 37:01
EN: You’ve got a Tight Bear Channel trying to reverse
ZH: 窄下降通道，尝试反转——
37:02 - 37:09
EN: - a minor reversal means that it’s either going to be a bull leg
ZH: 小反转的意思是，要么发展成震荡区间，要么变成熊旗
37:04 - 37:09
EN: in a Trading Range or a bull leg in what turns out to be a bear flag.
ZH: 小反转的意思是，要么发展成震荡区间，要么变成熊旗
37:10 - 37:12
EN: You have to learn to rely on your stop,
ZH: 你必须学会依靠初始止损
37:12 - 37:17
EN: and if you sell here or anywhere here, your stop is up here.
ZH: 如果你在这里，或这里，或任何地方卖出， 你的止损在它的上方
37:20 - 37:25
EN: In general when you have a reasonably strong trend,
ZH: 通常，在强趋势中，最好做波段交易
37:23 - 37:25
EN: it’s better if you can swing.
ZH: 通常，在强趋势中，最好做波段交易
37:25 - 37:26
EN: Most traders should only swing.
ZH: 大多数交易者应该只做波段交易
37:26 - 37:31
EN: Experienced traders will often scalp and take profits,
ZH: 剥头皮的高手通常会做空、止盈，
37:31 - 37:33
EN: scalp and take a profit, scalp and take a profit.
ZH: 做空、止盈，做空、止盈
37:33 - 37:37
EN: But a lot of traders, especially beginners, will not get back in,
ZH: 但很多交易者，尤其是新手，止盈之后不会再次入场
37:37 - 37:39
EN: and they’ll end up missing the trade.
ZH: 导致最终错过了整个波段
37:41 - 37:43
EN: So don’t scalp when you should swing.
ZH: 所以，当你应该做波段的时候，不要剥头皮
37:44 - 37:50
EN: The math is good for scalping, but the problem is you do not sell again,
ZH: 从数学的角度，剥头皮是好的做法， 但问题是你不会再次入场
37:50 - 37:53
EN: and you end up missing 80% of the trend.
ZH: 导致最终错过了80%的波段
37:53 - 37:58
EN: You only scalp in a strong trend if you’re able to sell again.
ZH: 剥头皮的前提是，你能够再次入场
Slide 023
Time: 37:55
Bilingual Transcript
37:59 - 38:02
EN: Now I’m going to talk a little bit about default targets.
ZH: 现在我想讲一下默认的目标位
Slide 024
Time: 38:03
Bilingual Transcript
38:03 - 38:08
EN: When you cannot decide where to get out, there are some basics rules that I use.
ZH: 如果你无法决定什么时候止盈，可以参考我的基本规则
38:08 - 38:10
EN: Let’s say you sold right here.
ZH: 假设你在这里卖出做空
38:10 - 38:11
EN: Your stop is above there.
ZH: 你的止损在上方
38:12 - 38:16
EN: That’s your Initial Risk, the height of that red rectangle.
ZH: 这个红色矩形的高度，就是你的初始风险
38:17 - 38:23
EN: And there are lots of ways to take profits and none of them is perfect,
ZH: 有很多止盈的方法，但没有一种是完美的
38:23 - 38:29
EN: but it’s good to have a default plan, a basic plan that you use
ZH: 当你不确定该怎么做的时候， 可以根据默认的计划来执行
38:27 - 38:29
EN: whenever you’re not sure what to do.
ZH: 当你不确定该怎么做的时候， 可以根据默认的计划来执行
38:31 - 38:37
EN: And you can change the targets based upon support
ZH: 你可以根据支撑、阻力，或者趋势的动能来调整目标位
38:35 - 38:37
EN: and resistance or the momentum that the market has.
ZH: 你可以根据支撑、阻力，或者趋势的动能来调整目标位
38:40 - 38:44
EN: Most traders are not particularly good about determining probability.
ZH: 大部分交易者对概率都不是很擅长
38:44 - 38:49
EN: As I said, 90% of the bars on the chart, the probability is between 40% and 60%
ZH: 就像刚才讲的，图上90%的K线， 赚钱的概率都只是在40%到60%之间
38:49 - 38:58
EN: that you’ll make a profitable trade or that the market will continue
ZH: 40%到60%的概率，市场会先达到目标位，而不是先打掉你的止损
38:54 - 38:58
EN: or go the direction that you expect it to go before it hits your stop.
ZH: 40%到60%的概率，市场会先达到目标位，而不是先打掉你的止损
38:58 - 39:00
EN: Let’s say you sell here.
ZH: 假设你在这里卖出
39:00 - 39:01
EN: Your Initial Risk is there.
ZH: 你的初始风险在这里
39:01 - 39:04
EN: If you cannot decide where you should take profits,
ZH: 如果你无法决定在哪里止盈
39:04 - 39:08
EN: a good default is always two times your Initial Risk.
ZH: 就默认在两倍初始风险的地方止盈
39:09 - 39:10
EN: There’s your Initial Risk.
ZH: 初始风险是这么多
39:10 - 39:12
EN: Here’s one times, here’s two times.
ZH: 这里是一倍，这里是两倍
39:12 - 39:15
EN: So that’s a reasonable location to take profits.
ZH: 所以这是一个合理的止盈位置
39:15 - 39:19
EN: So on any trade, if you cannot decide where you should be taking profits,
ZH: 在任何交易中，如果你无法决定在哪里止盈
39:19 - 39:24
EN: it’s always good to take at least partial profits
ZH: 在两倍初始风险的地方止盈至少一部分， 永远是一个好的选择
39:22 - 39:24
EN: at two times your Initial Risk.
ZH: 在两倍初始风险的地方止盈至少一部分， 永远是一个好的选择
39:24 - 39:34
EN: And I say always because let’s say you’re taking a trade
ZH: “永远”好，因为假设你做了一笔低胜率的交易， 但是在你入场的时候，你并不知道它的胜率很低
39:27 - 39:34
EN: that turns out to be a low probability trade, and you were not sure
ZH: “永远”好，因为假设你做了一笔低胜率的交易， 但是在你入场的时候，你并不知道它的胜率很低
39:31 - 39:34
EN: that it was low probability when you entered the trade.
ZH: “永远”好，因为假设你做了一笔低胜率的交易， 但是在你入场的时候，你并不知道它的胜率很低
39:34 - 39:35
EN: Low probability is 40%.
ZH: 低胜率，指的是40%
39:35 - 39:45
EN: The math, the Trader’s Equation math is always good
ZH: 如果利润是风险的两倍，那么数学期望就不会太差
39:40 - 39:45
EN: if you’re going for a reward equal to two times Actual Risk.
ZH: 如果利润是风险的两倍，那么数学期望就不会太差
39:45 - 39:48
EN: Initial Risk is always greater than Actual Risk.
ZH: 初始风险总是大于实际风险
39:48 - 39:55
EN: If your default plan is to go for a profit
ZH: 所以追求两倍盈亏比，在数学上永远都是合理的
39:51 - 39:55
EN: that is two times Initial Risk, the math is always going to be good.
ZH: 所以追求两倍盈亏比，在数学上永远都是合理的
39:58 - 40:01
EN: Here’s three times Initial Risk.
ZH: 这里是三倍初始风险
40:01 - 40:05
EN: So a reasonable approach is to take half off at two times your Initial Risk
ZH: 一个合理的方法是：在两倍初始风险的地方止盈一半
40:05 - 40:12
EN: and then take another half off or 25% more off at three times Initial Risk.
ZH: 然后在三倍初始风险的地方再止盈25%
40:12 - 40:14
EN: And then let’s say you take a quarter off here;
ZH: 假设你在这里又止盈了25%
40:14 - 40:18
EN: then you just swing the balance, and you rely on your protective stop.
ZH: 剩下的25%，就一直持有，依赖保护性止损——
40:18 - 40:23
EN: After every strong breakout to a new low, you have a new major Lower High,
ZH: 每次强势突破创新低之后，都会形成一个新的重要高点
40:23 - 40:27
EN: so you lower your stop to just above that new Lower High.
ZH: 把止损降低到那个新的高点的上方
40:29 - 40:32
EN: By the end of the session, you look for any reason to exit.
ZH: 临近收盘，找一个理由离场
40:32 - 40:36
EN: For example, a new low, reversal up, reversal up here.
ZH: 比如，跌到新低之后，反转上涨时离场， 或者在这里离场
40:40 - 40:42
EN: Pretty good bull trend.
ZH: 非常不错的下降趋势
Slide 025
Time: 40:40
Bilingual Transcript
40:42 - 40:44
EN: We have an attempt at a Double Bottom.
ZH: 尝试形成双底
40:44 - 40:47
EN: We got a bear breakout and then a pretty good reversal up,
ZH: 向下跌破，立刻强势反转
40:48 - 40:51
EN: and pretty strong selloff, pretty strong reversal up,
ZH: 大阴线跌破，又强势反转
40:51 - 40:53
EN: so a Lower Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 所以是低点降低的大反转
40:53 - 40:56
EN: Bear trend, bull breakout, Lower Low.
ZH: 下降趋势，多头突破，低点降低
40:56 - 40:59
EN: So you can buy a reversal up above here or above here.
ZH: 你可以在它，或者它的上方买入，押注反转上涨
40:59 - 41:01
EN: You can buy a strong bull close there.
ZH: 也可以在这根大阳线的收盘买入
41:02 - 41:04
EN: Lower Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 低点降低的大反转
41:04 - 41:06
EN: Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 变成低点抬高的大反转
41:06 - 41:11
EN: Maybe not major, not all that many bars, but it’s a reasonable buy.
ZH: 也许还不是大反转的结构，因为K线数量不够多， 但这是一个合理的买点
41:11 - 41:14
EN: I think the market went Always In Long on this reversal up.
ZH: 我认为，这里反转上涨之后，市场就进入单边上涨了
41:18 - 41:23
EN: Strong breakout, 3 consecutive bull bars
ZH: 强势突破，连续3根阳线收在高位——在这里
41:20 - 41:23
EN: closing near their highs over here, right here.
ZH: 强势突破，连续3根阳线收在高位——在这里
41:23 - 41:26
EN: One, two, three, so you can buy closes.
ZH: 1，2，3，所以你可以在它的收盘买入
41:27 - 41:30
EN: And let’s say you buy this close.
ZH: 假设你在它的收盘买入
41:30 - 41:37
EN: Your stop is going to be below the most
ZH: 止损应该放在最近一个重要低点的下方，在这里
41:33 - 41:37
EN: recent major Higher Low, and that’s this.
ZH: 止损应该放在最近一个重要低点的下方，在这里
41:37 - 41:42
EN: Major because it went to a new high, and it’s a strong leg up.
ZH: 它是重要低点，因为后面强势上涨创新高了
41:42 - 41:45
EN: If you buy here, your stop is here.
ZH: 如果你在这里买入，你的止损在这里
41:45 - 41:48
EN: And what’s your default whenever you’re not sure what to do?
ZH: 如果不确定什么时候止盈，默认目标在哪里？
41:48 - 41:51
EN: Well, in general, two times your risk.
ZH: 通常来说，就是两倍盈亏比
41:52 - 41:53
EN: Two times your Actual Risk,
ZH: 两倍实际风险
41:53 - 41:56
EN: but a lot of traders will go two times your Initial Risk.
ZH: 很多交易者也会选择两倍初始风险
41:57 - 41:58
EN: You buy here, stop down here.
ZH: 在这里买入，止损在下方
41:58 - 42:00
EN: Two times your risk is up there.
ZH: 两倍初始风险在这个位置
42:00 - 42:02
EN: Let’s say instead you bought here.
ZH: 或者，如果你在这里买入
42:02 - 42:06
EN: Your Initial Risk is below the low of this bar.
ZH: 你的初始风险在这根K线的低点下方
42:06 - 42:08
EN: Let’s look at that.
ZH: 来看一下
42:10 - 42:13
EN: If you buy here, this is one times your risk,
ZH: 如果你在这里买入，这是一倍风险
42:13 - 42:15
EN: so you buy here, your risk is here.
ZH: 你在这里买入，风险是这么多
42:15 - 42:17
EN: This is one times, that’s two times.
ZH: 一倍，两倍
42:17 - 42:21
EN: And you can see that traders who did buy here, a lot of them did exit
ZH: 可以看到在这里买入的多头，
42:21 - 42:26
EN: at two times the Initial Risk because we got a pullback at that price.
ZH: 很多人确实在两倍的地方离场了，导致价格出现一些回调
42:26 - 42:31
EN: You could also exit on a reversal down, arguing it’s a type of a Wedge
ZH: 你也可以在反转下跌时离场，因为这可能是一个楔形顶
42:31 - 42:36
EN: - one, two, three, four or one, two, three.
ZH: ——1、2、3、4或1、2、3
42:36 - 42:38
EN: In any case, it’s the top of a bull channel.
ZH: 无论如何，这是上涨通道的上沿
42:43 - 42:46
EN: Traders will either take profits with a limit order
ZH: 多头要么在两倍初始风险的价格挂限价卖单止盈
42:46 - 42:52
EN: at two times their Initial Risk or on a reversal down below a bear bar.
ZH: 或者在阴线下方1个tick挂突破卖单离场
42:54 - 42:57
EN: Can you sell this? Well, you’ve got a bear bar,
ZH: 可以做空吗？有一根阴线
42:57 - 43:00
EN: but it has a tail below, and this channel is pretty tight.
ZH: 但是有下影线，而且上涨通道很窄
43:00 - 43:03
EN: Even though it’s a Wedge or a type of a Wedge, it’s a minor reversal,
ZH: 就算它是3推楔形，也最多是小反转
43:03 - 43:07
EN: and probably the best you get is a Trading Range,
ZH: 最多就是变成震荡区间
43:07 - 43:12
EN: and a Trading Range could have a couple legs down
ZH: 震荡区间可能会有几段下跌，或者只是横盘，就像这里一样
43:09 - 43:12
EN: or it could simply be sideways, as it was here.
ZH: 震荡区间可能会有几段下跌，或者只是横盘，就像这里一样
43:15 - 43:19
EN: Another Wedge – one, two, three – but again, a very Tight Channel.
ZH: 另一个楔形——1，2，3——但仍然是很窄的通道
43:19 - 43:21
EN: You could take profits there if you want,
ZH: 可以在那里止盈
43:21 - 43:26
EN: but I would not be selling there because the pullbacks are too small,
ZH: 但我不会做空，因为回调太小，通道太窄 （做空赚不到钱）
43:25 - 43:26
EN: and the channel is too tight.
ZH: 但我不会做空，因为回调太小，通道太窄 （做空赚不到钱）
43:26 - 43:29
EN: The market’s still Always In Long, even with this reversal,
ZH: 市场仍然处于单边上涨，尽管之前有一些小反转
43:29 - 43:31
EN: so traders will buy a reversal up.
ZH: 所以多头会在重新上涨的时候买入
43:31 - 43:34
EN: They’ll buy a reversal up, they’ll buy a reversal up.
ZH: 在这里买入，在这里买入
43:35 - 43:39
EN: Still Always In Long, so traders will still buy reversals up.
ZH: 仍然是单边上涨，所以多头会一直买入
43:41 - 43:45
EN: There are entries all during the day on any timeframe.
ZH: 无论是什么时间周期，到处都是入场点
Slide 026
Time: 43:45
Bilingual Transcript
43:45 - 43:47
EN: There are entries on every bar.
ZH: 每一根K线都有交易的机会
43:47 - 43:52
EN: There’s big volume on every bar, so you can enter at any time.
ZH: 每根K线的成交量都很大，所以理论上你可以在任何时候入场
43:52 - 43:57
EN: And one of the purposes of this course is to teach you ways to enter.
ZH: 这门课程的一个目标是教你入场的方法
43:57 - 43:59
EN: You don’t have to wait for perfect setups.
ZH: 你不需要等待完美的机会
43:59 - 44:00
EN: You’re never going to find them.
ZH: 因为你永远找不到它们
44:02 - 44:09
EN: It’s okay to wait until the market is clearly Always In Long
ZH: 可以等到市场明显是单边上涨或下跌， 然后顺着趋势的方向去交易
44:05 - 44:09
EN: or clearly Always In Short and then trade in the direction of the trend.
ZH: 可以等到市场明显是单边上涨或下跌， 然后顺着趋势的方向去交易
44:10 - 44:17
EN: So a strong bull breakout after a Lower Low Major Trend Reversal,
ZH: 比如，低点降低的大反转之后，强势的多头突破， 市场进入单边上涨
44:14 - 44:17
EN: pretty strong reversal, so the market’s Always In Long.
ZH: 比如，低点降低的大反转之后，强势的多头突破， 市场进入单边上涨
44:17 - 44:20
EN: It’s probably going higher, so you can buy for any reason.
ZH: 大概率还会再涨一些，所以你可以用任何方法买入
44:20 - 44:21
EN: For example, you can buy that close.
ZH: 比如，你可以在它的收盘买入
44:23 - 44:24
EN: 3 consecutive bull bars.
ZH: 连续3根阳线
44:24 - 44:27
EN: The bars are getting bigger, closing on its high,
ZH: K线体积越来越大，收盘在最高
44:27 - 44:30
EN: closing above the high of maybe 20 bars or so.
ZH: 高于过去20根K线的最高点
44:31 - 44:32
EN: And look what followed.
ZH: 再来看后面
44:33 - 44:41
EN: We have a series of additional trend bars, and now we have 7 bars up
ZH: 一系列的阳线，现在连续上涨了7根K线，没有回调， 所以是持续了7根K线的上涨微通道
44:38 - 44:41
EN: without a pullback, so a 7 bar bull Micro Channel.
ZH: 一系列的阳线，现在连续上涨了7根K线，没有回调， 所以是持续了7根K线的上涨微通道
44:41 - 44:43
EN: That’s a strong bull trend.
ZH: 这是强上涨趋势
44:43 - 44:45
EN: We’re probably going higher, even if we pull back.
ZH: 就算回调，也会继续上涨
44:45 - 44:48
EN: Again, you can buy closes.
ZH: 同样，你可以在K线收盘买入
44:48 - 44:49
EN: This is a Buy The Close bull trend.
ZH: 这是一个“买收盘”的上涨趋势
44:49 - 44:54
EN: You can buy that close because the market’s clearly Always In Long,
ZH: 你可以在它的收盘买入，因为市场处于单边上涨
44:54 - 44:56
EN: and even if there is a pullback,
ZH: 就算有回调，
44:56 - 44:59
EN: the odds are high bulls will buy it and we’ll go higher.
ZH: 多头也会继续买入，然后恢复上涨
45:01 - 45:03
EN: Whenever you buy – it doesn’t matter if you buy here
ZH: 不管你在哪里买入——无论是在这里买入
45:03 - 45:07
EN: or here or here – initial stop is down here.
ZH: 还是在这里买入——初始止损都在这个低点下方
45:07 - 45:10
EN: You could put it here once you see this breakout.
ZH: 一旦你看到新的突破，就可以把止损抬高到这里
45:13 - 45:16
EN: If you do have it here, your stop is further away.
ZH: 止损在这里，比较远
45:16 - 45:19
EN: I think you could put it here if you bought here or here.
ZH: 我认为初始止损放在这里也可以， 因为你在上方买入的时候，已经突破创新高了
45:19 - 45:21
EN: You have to trade small.
ZH: 你必须用小仓位交易
45:21 - 45:24
EN: If your stop is far away, you always have to trade small.
ZH: 如果止损很远，就必须用小仓位交易
Slide 027
Time: 45:25
Bilingual Transcript
45:27 - 45:29
EN: Now some traders, they’ll buy and they’ll scalp
ZH: 一些交易者，他们买入后会迅速止盈
45:29 - 45:31
EN: and buy again and scalp and buy again.
ZH: 然后再次买入、剥头皮；继续买入
45:33 - 45:37
EN: Some traders will buy and take partial profits and then at another signal,
ZH: 一些交易者买入之后，会止盈一部分
45:37 - 45:41
EN: another Buy The Close bar, they’ll put their full position back on.
ZH: 在看到新的信号之后，会把止盈的仓位买回来
45:45 - 45:46
EN: Trend resuming up.
ZH: 趋势恢复上涨
45:46 - 45:51
EN: Buy the close, buy the close, buy the close, or buy above any of these bars.
ZH: 买收盘，买收盘，买收盘，或者在这些K线的上方买入
45:51 - 45:57
EN: Buy below any of these bars, arguing that this is strong enough
ZH: 在这些K线下方挂限价买单，因为上涨足够强势， 所以至少应该有小的第2段上涨
45:55 - 45:57
EN: so that there should be at least a small leg up.
ZH: 在这些K线下方挂限价买单，因为上涨足够强势， 所以至少应该有小的第2段上涨
46:00 - 46:05
EN: Strong breakout to a new high, and therefore this is a major Higher Low.
ZH: 强势突破到新高，因此它是重要的低点
46:06 - 46:10
EN: At this point traders will raise their stop to below this low.
ZH: 这个时候，交易者会把止损抬高到这个低点下方
46:11 - 46:16
EN: After each new major Higher Low, you raise the stop.
ZH: 每当出现新的重要低点，你就可以抬高止损
46:17 - 46:20
EN: So the bottom of each new strong leg up, raise the stop
ZH: 每次强势突破创新高，把止损抬高到新的起涨点，
46:20 - 46:25
EN: because at that point, this Higher Low becomes a major Higher Low.
ZH: 因为这个时候它变成了重要的低点
46:25 - 46:29
EN: And if it’s a bull trend, it should not pull back
ZH: 如果上涨趋势仍然成立的话，
46:29 - 46:31
EN: below the low of that major Higher Low.
ZH: 就不应该回调到这个低点的下方
46:31 - 46:34
EN: If it does, your premise of a bull trend is wrong.
ZH: 如果它被跌破，说明上涨趋势的假设是错误的
46:34 - 46:39
EN: The market at that point would then either be in a bear trend
ZH: 市场要么处于下降趋势，或者处于震荡区间
46:37 - 46:39
EN: or simply in a Trading Range.
ZH: 市场要么处于下降趋势，或者处于震荡区间
46:43 - 46:46
EN: Another breakout, 6 or 7 bars up.
ZH: 再次突破，连续上涨了6~7根K线
46:46 - 46:54
EN: This is not clearly a major Higher Low, but a lot of traders
ZH: 这并不是一个明确的重要低点， 但是在连续上涨6~7根K线之后， 很多交易者会把止损抬高到这个低点的下方
46:49 - 46:54
EN: after 6 or 7 bars up will trail their stop to below that low.
ZH: 但是在连续上涨6~7根K线之后， 很多交易者会把止损抬高到这个低点的下方
47:00 - 47:01
EN: Stronger breakout.
ZH: 更强的突破
47:01 - 47:06
EN: Pair of good bull bars, new high, so another major Higher Low.
ZH: 两根大阳线，创新高，所以它是新的重要低点
47:06 - 47:08
EN: Traders will raise their stop again.
ZH: 多头会再次抬高他们的止损
Slide 028
Time: 47:10
Bilingual Transcript
47:11 - 47:16
EN: In this video I talked about the market cycle and the things that it can do.
ZH: 这节课，我仍然先讲了市场周期
47:16 - 47:20
EN: Every chart can either be in a trend or a Trading Range.
ZH: 市场要么处于趋势中，要么处于震荡区间
47:20 - 47:22
EN: If it’s in a trend, it can be a breakout.
ZH: 如果是趋势，它可以是突破
47:22 - 47:25
EN: You only want to trade in the direction of the trend.
ZH: 此时只能顺着趋势的方向交易
47:25 - 47:26
EN: Or it can be in a channel.
ZH: 或者它可以是通道
47:26 - 47:30
EN: If the channel is tight, only trade in the direction of the trend.
ZH: 如果通道很窄，只能顺着趋势的方向交易
47:30 - 47:34
EN: If the channel is broad, it’s good to trade in the direction of the trend,
ZH: 如果通道很宽，同样可以顺势交易
47:34 - 47:38
EN: but you can also make money scalping in the opposite direction.
ZH: 但也可以逆趋势剥头皮赚快钱
47:38 - 47:41
EN: And then eventually the channel evolves into a Trading Range,
ZH: 最终，通道演变成震荡区间
47:41 - 47:45
EN: and there traders should look to buy low, sell high, and scalp.
ZH: 这个时候，交易者应该低买、高卖，剥头皮赚快钱
47:46 - 47:54
EN: I talked about the Trader’s Equation and how you only want to take a trade
ZH: 我还讲到了数学期望，你必须构建数学期望为正的交易
47:50 - 47:54
EN: if you can structure a trade with a positive Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 我还讲到了数学期望，你必须构建数学期望为正的交易
47:54 - 47:58
EN: You want the probability of profit times the size
ZH: 你的【胜率 * 利润】
47:58 - 48:04
EN: of the profit to be significantly greater
ZH: 应该要明显大于【亏损概率 * 风险】
48:00 - 48:04
EN: than the probability of loss times the size of the loss.
ZH: 应该要明显大于【亏损概率 * 风险】
48:04 - 48:07
EN: I also talked some about the 40/60 Rule.
ZH: 我还谈到了40-60法则
48:08 - 48:11
EN: 10% of the bars on the chart are in a strong breakout;
ZH: K线图只有10%的K线是强势突破
48:11 - 48:14
EN: you only trade in the direction of the trend.
ZH: 此时你只能顺趋势交易
48:14 - 48:18
EN: 90% of the bars on the chart are either in a broader channel
ZH: 其它90%的K线，要么在更宽的通道中，
48:18 - 48:26
EN: or in a Trading Range, in which case the probability
ZH: 要么在震荡区间里面， 此时赚钱的概率总是在40%~60%之间
48:22 - 48:26
EN: of making money is between 40% and 60%.
ZH: 要么在震荡区间里面， 此时赚钱的概率总是在40%~60%之间
48:26 - 48:31
EN: So let’s say your stop is 10 units, 10 pips, 10 ticks below.
ZH: 假设做多，你的止损在下方10个ticks（或pips）
48:31 - 48:38
EN: If you go for a reward that is twice that, you have a positive Trader’s Equation
ZH: 如果你追求两倍于风险的利润，你的数学期望就是正的，
48:38 - 48:42
EN: because the probability is at least 40%, and any time you hold
ZH: 因为胜率至少有40%
48:42 - 48:45
EN: for a reward equal to twice your risk,
ZH: 如果盈亏比是两倍
48:45 - 48:48
EN: you’re going to have a positive Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 数学期望就大于0
48:50 - 48:51
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
48:51 - 48:53
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
48:53 - 48:57
EN: This video is the second of two videos on how to trade.
ZH: 如何交易的两节课，到这里就全部讲完了