al-brooks-course
46E - Trading Broad Bear Channels
Raw transcript and slide notes for 46E - Trading Broad Bear Channels.
Overview
- Slides: 21
- Transcript segments: 425
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:10
EN: This is the fifth of five videos on trading Broad Bear Channels.
ZH: 这是如何交易宽下降通道的最后一节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:12
Bilingual Transcript
00:14 - 00:17
EN: I want to talk about two points in this video.
ZH: 这节课我主要想讲两个点
00:17 - 00:18
EN: First, I want to talk about the sell zones.
ZH: 首先我会讲到卖出区域
00:18 - 00:23
EN: It’s a Broad Bear Channel and traders should be looking to sell pullbacks,
ZH: 宽下降通道，空头应该在反弹时卖出做空
00:23 - 00:29
EN: and they should be especially looking to sell a pullback
ZH: 尤其应该在反弹到左边下跌波段50%附近时卖出
00:26 - 00:29
EN: that is around 50% of the most recent leg down.
ZH: 尤其应该在反弹到左边下跌波段50%附近时卖出
Slide 002
Time: 00:30
Bilingual Transcript
00:33 - 00:34
EN: This is the 15-minute chart.
ZH: 这是15分钟图
00:35 - 00:37
EN: It’s a Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 宽下降通道
00:37 - 00:40
EN: The reversals up last a lot of bars.
ZH: 反弹持续很多根K线
00:45 - 00:49
EN: Whenever you get a strong selloff and then an attempt to reverse back up,
ZH: 每次强势下跌，然后反弹的时候
00:49 - 00:54
EN: the bears are going to look to sell
ZH: 空头会在最近一个下跌波段的中间三分之一卖出做空
00:51 - 00:54
EN: somewhere in the middle third of the most recent leg down.
ZH: 空头会在最近一个下跌波段的中间三分之一卖出做空
00:54 - 00:57
EN: We have a bear breakout.
ZH: 下跌，红色框框就是它的中间三分之一
00:55 - 00:57
EN: This red box is the middle third.
ZH: 下跌，红色框框就是它的中间三分之一
00:57 - 00:59
EN: This is the sell zone.
ZH: 那就是卖出区域
00:59 - 01:01
EN: This is where the bears will be looking to sell.
ZH: 空头会在这里卖出做空
01:04 - 01:09
EN: Some will place a limit order to sell
ZH: 一些人会直接把限价卖单挂在50%反弹的地方
01:05 - 01:09
EN: at a 50% pullback from the high to the low.
ZH: 一些人会直接把限价卖单挂在50%反弹的地方
01:09 - 01:11
EN: Others will sell on a reversal down.
ZH: 一些人会在反转下跌时用突破卖单入场做空
01:15 - 01:17
EN: For example, we have a bear bar here.
ZH: 例如，这里有一根阴线
01:17 - 01:18
EN: We have a bear bar here.
ZH: 这里有一根阴线
01:18 - 01:21
EN: Some traders prefer to sell using a stop below the bear bar,
ZH: 有的交易者更喜欢在阴线下方用突破卖单入场做空
01:21 - 01:25
EN: somewhere in the middle third of the most recent leg down.
ZH: 在中间三分之一这个区域
01:25 - 01:26
EN: They’ll put a stop above.
ZH: 止损放在上方
01:26 - 01:28
EN: Minimum goal is a new low.
ZH: 目标至少是跌到新低
01:28 - 01:33
EN: The risk is equal to the reward if you sell the 50% pullback.
ZH: 如果你在50%反弹卖出做空，风险和利润大致相等
01:33 - 01:41
EN: But the market’s in a bear trend, and therefore the probability is higher
ZH: 但市场处于下降趋势，因此更有可能跌到新低， 而不是先上涨打掉止损
01:37 - 01:41
EN: that you’ll get down to the reward before you get up to the stop.
ZH: 但市场处于下降趋势，因此更有可能跌到新低， 而不是先上涨打掉止损
01:42 - 01:44
EN: Therefore, the Trader’s Equation is good.
ZH: 所以数学期望是正的
Slide 003
Time: 01:50
Bilingual Transcript
01:54 - 01:57
EN: Broad Bear Channels spend a lot of time going sideways.
ZH: 宽下降通道很多时间都在横盘
01:59 - 02:02
EN: At times when it looks like it’s more in a Trading Range
ZH: 有时看起来更像是震荡区间，而不是通道
02:02 - 02:07
EN: than it’s still in a channel, traders will look to sell
ZH: 此时空头更想在顶部三分之一卖出，而不是中间三分之一
02:05 - 02:07
EN: in the top third instead of the middle third.
ZH: 此时空头更想在顶部三分之一卖出，而不是中间三分之一
02:10 - 02:13
EN: They can sell with limit orders above prior highs,
ZH: 他们会把限价卖单挂在前期高点
02:17 - 02:21
EN: or they can sell with a limit order at a fixed percentage,
ZH: 或者挂在固定的距离或百分比
02:21 - 02:25
EN: like a 50% to 60% retracement of the bear leg.
ZH: 比如50%或者60%反弹的地方
02:26 - 02:28
EN: Here we have a bear leg.
ZH: 下跌波段
02:28 - 02:29
EN: It’s a Trading Range.
ZH: 震荡区间
02:29 - 02:33
EN: This is about a 50% or a 60% retracement of the bear leg
ZH: 这里大约是左边下跌波段的60%或者70%
02:33 - 02:39
EN: - therefore about a 60% or 70% rally in the Trading Range.
ZH: 也就是在震荡区间顶部30%附近
02:42 - 02:45
EN: Most traders should be looking to sell with stops.
ZH: 大多数交易者应该用突破卖单入场做空
02:45 - 02:49
EN: Therefore, when the market’s up in the upper third and starts to reverse down,
ZH: 所以，当市场从顶部三分之一区域开始反转下跌时
02:49 - 02:52
EN: traders can sell with a stop order below the low of the prior bar.
ZH: 交易者可以在前一根K线低点下方挂突破卖单做空
02:53 - 02:58
EN: This is not ideal because the sell signal bar has a bull body right here,
ZH: 它并不是最好，因为这个做空信号K是一根阳线
02:58 - 03:02
EN: but it’s two legs up – one, pullback, two – inside a bigger two-legged pattern
ZH: 但已经是第2段上涨——1，回调，2； 外面有更大的两段上涨——
03:02 - 03:07
EN: - one, pullback, Leg 2 – and therefore a reasonable sell with a stop
ZH: 1，回调，2； 所以是合理的做空入场点
03:07 - 03:10
EN: above the top of the most recent major Lower High,
ZH: 止损放在最近一个重要高点的上方
03:10 - 03:13
EN: either here, above here, or up here.
ZH: 这里，或者它的上方，或者更上方
Slide 004
Time: 03:20
Bilingual Transcript
03:23 - 03:24
EN: It’s a bear trend.
ZH: 下降趋势
03:24 - 03:29
EN: Bear trends are either breakouts, Tight Channels, or Broad Channels.
ZH: 下降趋势要么是突破，要么是窄通道，要么是宽通道
03:29 - 03:30
EN: This is a Broad Channel.
ZH: 这是一个宽通道
03:30 - 03:34
EN: It’s a bear trend.
ZH: 是最弱的下降趋势，但仍然是下降趋势
03:31 - 03:34
EN: It’s the weakest type of bear trend, but it’s a bear trend,
ZH: 是最弱的下降趋势，但仍然是下降趋势
03:34 - 03:37
EN: and therefore you can sell at any time, for any reason,
ZH: 所以你可以在任何时间，用任何方式卖出做空
03:38 - 03:40
EN: as long as you use an appropriate stop
ZH: 只要止损设置得合理——
03:40 - 03:43
EN: - a stop above the most recent major Lower High.
ZH: 放在最近一个重要高点的上方
03:43 - 03:45
EN: Strong breakout to a new low.
ZH: 强势跌破到新低
03:45 - 03:46
EN: This high is major.
ZH: 这个高点很重要
03:46 - 03:54
EN: As long as any rally stays below this high, the bears can argue
ZH: 只要反弹不超过它，空头就可以说市场要么处于震荡区间， 要么仍然是下降趋势
03:51 - 03:54
EN: that the market’s either in a Trading Range or still in a bear trend.
ZH: 只要反弹不超过它，空头就可以说市场要么处于震荡区间， 要么仍然是下降趋势
03:54 - 03:58
EN: If it goes above that high, then it’s no longer a bear trend.
ZH: 如果超过这个高点，那么它就不再是下降趋势
03:58 - 04:00
EN: Then it’s either a Trading Range or a bull trend.
ZH: 要么是震荡区间，要么是上涨趋势
04:00 - 04:03
EN: If you’re selling because it’s a bear trend
ZH: 如果卖出做空的前提是下降趋势
04:03 - 04:06
EN: and it goes above this high, you know it’s not a bear trend.
ZH: 但价格超过这个高点，那么下降趋势的前提就不再成立
04:06 - 04:10
EN: Of course, you want to get out, and therefore it’s reasonable
ZH: 所以当然应该离场，所以把止损放在这里是合理的
04:08 - 04:10
EN: to get out if your stop is hit.
ZH: 所以当然应该离场，所以把止损放在这里是合理的
04:14 - 04:18
EN: You can sell at any time, including on a breakout to a new low.
ZH: 你可以在任何时间卖出，包括在跌破创新低的时候
04:18 - 04:21
EN: You can place a stop order to sell just below this low.
ZH: 你可以在前期低点下方挂突破卖单
04:21 - 04:25
EN: You can place a stop order to sell just below this low or any low.
ZH: 你可以在这个低点，或任何低点被跌破的时候入场做空
04:26 - 04:30
EN: However, because it’s a Broad Channel, the pullbacks are deep.
ZH: 然而，因为这是一个宽通道，反弹幅度很大
04:30 - 04:32
EN: They retrace a lot of the prior bear leg.
ZH: 把左边下跌波段的大部分跌幅都修复了
04:33 - 04:40
EN: You usually can get a much better entry price than selling
ZH: 所以通常在反弹时逢高做空， 比跌到新低时去追空要更好
04:36 - 04:40
EN: at that low by simply waiting for a rally above that low.
ZH: 所以通常在反弹时逢高做空， 比跌到新低时去追空要更好
04:42 - 04:45
EN: Every time there’s a strong breakout to a new low,
ZH: 每当价格强势跌破到新低
04:45 - 04:49
EN: it begins with a major Lower High, and after each new strong breakout
ZH: 它的起跌点就变成了重要的高点， 所以每次强势跌破之后，
04:49 - 04:54
EN: to a new low, traders will put their stop
ZH: 空头就会把他们的止损移动到最近一个重要高点的上方
04:52 - 04:54
EN: above the most recent major Lower High.
ZH: 空头就会把他们的止损移动到最近一个重要高点的上方
04:55 - 04:58
EN: But let’s say you sold up here and you’re holding short,
ZH: 假设你在这里卖出做空，并一直持有
04:58 - 05:00
EN: and then we got another breakout to a new low.
ZH: 然后价格再次跌破到新低
05:00 - 05:04
EN: This is the most recent major high, so it doesn’t matter where you sold;
ZH: 这是最近一个重要高点，所以不管你在哪里入场做空
05:04 - 05:08
EN: you’re going to have your stop above this most recent major Lower High.
ZH: 现在都把止损移动到这个重要高点的上方
Slide 005
Time: 05:11
Bilingual Transcript
05:16 - 05:24
EN: Similar to a Trading Range, because so much of the time it’s
ZH: 类似于震荡区间——因为它绝大部分时间都在震荡， 等待反弹逢高做空，比在跌破时追空要更容易赚钱
05:18 - 05:24
EN: within a Trading Range, it’s easier to make money
ZH: 类似于震荡区间——因为它绝大部分时间都在震荡， 等待反弹逢高做空，比在跌破时追空要更容易赚钱
05:21 - 05:24
EN: if you wait to sell rallies than to sell breakouts.
ZH: 类似于震荡区间——因为它绝大部分时间都在震荡， 等待反弹逢高做空，比在跌破时追空要更容易赚钱
05:28 - 05:32
EN: In general, most traders do not sell breakouts to new lows.
ZH: 通常来说，大多数交易者不会在跌到新低的时候追空
05:32 - 05:43
EN: The only traders who take these sells – well, for the most part,
ZH: 唯一在这里卖出的人是多头—— 一些多头把保护性止损放在前期低点下方，止损被打掉
05:35 - 05:43
EN: the only traders selling down here are bulls, and they have protective stops
ZH: 唯一在这里卖出的人是多头—— 一些多头把保护性止损放在前期低点下方，止损被打掉
05:40 - 05:43
EN: below that low and they’re getting stopped out.
ZH: 唯一在这里卖出的人是多头—— 一些多头把保护性止损放在前期低点下方，止损被打掉
05:43 - 05:46
EN: A bull might buy this as a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal and then,
ZH: 可能有多头在这里买入，押注低点抬高的大反转
05:46 - 05:51
EN: once we get this rally, he might put his stop below here
ZH: 在上涨之后，他们把止损移动到这个低点下方， 然后被打掉
05:49 - 05:51
EN: or below here, and then he gets stopped out.
ZH: 在上涨之后，他们把止损移动到这个低点下方， 然后被打掉
05:51 - 05:55
EN: Therefore, you have bulls selling at the new lows.
ZH: 所以有些多头会在跌到新低时卖出止损
05:55 - 05:59
EN: They’re getting stopped out, and the bears are not selling down here.
ZH: 多头卖出止损，但空头不会在这里卖出做空
05:59 - 06:00
EN: The bears are buying down here.
ZH: 空头在这里买入止盈
06:00 - 06:04
EN: They’re buying back their shorts from selling higher.
ZH: 在上方做空，在新低止盈
Slide 006
Time: 06:10
Bilingual Transcript
06:12 - 06:16
EN: Instead of selling at new lows, the bears are using prior lows to take profits.
ZH: 空头不会在跌破新低时追空， 而是在前期低点附近买入止盈
06:16 - 06:20
EN: They want to take profits somewhere at or below the prior low.
ZH: 他们想在前期低点或更低的价格止盈
06:23 - 06:26
EN: If you sell here, you might want to take a profit at that low
ZH: 如果你在这里卖出做空，你可以在前期低点止盈
06:26 - 06:31
EN: or some fixed number of points below it, or at some other resistance,
ZH: 或者在下方固定距离止盈， 或者在其他的支撑位止盈，比如通道的下沿
06:29 - 06:31
EN: like the bottom of a channel.
ZH: 或者在下方固定距离止盈， 或者在其他的支撑位止盈，比如通道的下沿
06:31 - 06:33
EN: That’s true with any of these rallies.
ZH: 每次反弹都是这样
06:33 - 06:39
EN: Bears are selling rallies and then taking profits somewhere
ZH: 空头在反弹时卖出做空， 然后在前一个低点下方某处止盈
06:37 - 06:39
EN: below the most recent prior low.
ZH: 空头在反弹时卖出做空， 然后在前一个低点下方某处止盈
06:42 - 06:45
EN: It’s reasonable to take profits at the low with a limit order
ZH: 把止盈的限价买单挂在前期低点也是合理的
06:45 - 06:49
EN: or on a reversal up from below the low.
ZH: 或者在价格从前期低点下方反转上涨的时候离场
06:49 - 06:52
EN: For example, here, if a bear sold here, he might take profits,
ZH: 例如，这里，如果空头在这里卖出做空，
06:52 - 06:55
EN: partial profits or full profits here,
ZH: 他可以在这里止盈一部分
06:55 - 07:00
EN: and then he’ll take more profits or exit completely on a reversal up,
ZH: 然后在反转上涨时止盈更多，或全部离场
07:00 - 07:04
EN: especially a Micro Double Bottom and a decent buy signal bar.
ZH: 尤其这里有小双底和不错的做多信号K线
07:07 - 07:11
EN: The bulls know the bears are buying, and if the bears are buying,
ZH: 多头知道空头在买入，如果空头在买入
07:11 - 07:13
EN: the market’s going to go up, not down.
ZH: 那么市场就会上涨，而不是下跌
07:13 - 07:17
EN: The bulls therefore buy exactly where the bears are getting out,
ZH: 因此，多头正好在空头止盈的地方买入
07:17 - 07:22
EN: betting that there’ll be a reversal up that will go up far enough
ZH: 押注会有足够大的反弹幅度， 让他们可以赚一些钱
07:20 - 07:22
EN: for the bulls to make a profit.
ZH: 押注会有足够大的反弹幅度， 让他们可以赚一些钱
Slide 007
Time: 07:25
Bilingual Transcript
07:30 - 07:35
EN: Remember, a Broad Bear Channel is just a Trading Range that’s sloped downward.
ZH: 宽下降通道只是一个向下倾斜的震荡区间
07:35 - 07:40
EN: Therefore, the bears expect rallies and they expect the rallies
ZH: 所以空头知道会有反弹， 而且反弹往往持续很多根K线
07:39 - 07:43
EN: to last a lot of bars, and sometimes the rallies
ZH: 所以空头知道会有反弹， 而且反弹往往持续很多根K线 有时反弹足够强势，甚至让市场进入单边上涨
07:41 - 07:43
EN: can even make the market Always In Long.
ZH: 有时反弹足够强势，甚至让市场进入单边上涨
07:44 - 07:49
EN: However, as long as any rally stays below the most recent major Lower High,
ZH: 然而，只要反弹不超过最近一个重要高点
07:49 - 07:51
EN: it’s still in a bear trend.
ZH: 下降趋势就仍然完好
07:58 - 08:07
EN: At times when the market is mostly sideways, if bears still believe it’s in
ZH: 如果市场一直在横盘， 但空头仍然认为它处于震荡区间或宽下降通道的话
08:03 - 08:07
EN: either a Trading Range or a Broad Bear Channel, some bears will wait
ZH: 如果市场一直在横盘， 但空头仍然认为它处于震荡区间或宽下降通道的话
08:07 - 08:11
EN: to sell close to the prior high, and they might sell
ZH: 他们会在顶部阳线的收盘卖出，会逢高挂限价卖单
08:11 - 08:15
EN: with a limit order or on a stop order on a reversal down.
ZH: 或者在反转下跌时用突破卖单入场做空
08:16 - 08:18
EN: These are all types of Double Tops.
ZH: 这里有很多双顶
08:18 - 08:21
EN: Double Top with this high and that high or this high and that high.
ZH: 这个高点和那个高点；这个高点和那个高点
08:21 - 08:23
EN: We have a small Double Top here.
ZH: 这里有一个小双顶
08:23 - 08:24
EN: Double Top bear flag.
ZH: 双顶熊旗
08:24 - 08:26
EN: Bear trend, Double Top.
ZH: 下降趋势，双顶
08:26 - 08:30
EN: Sell the reversal down, and then this high and this high
ZH: 在反转下跌时卖出做空； 这个高点和那个高点
08:30 - 08:31
EN: or this high and that high.
ZH: 这个高点和那个高点
08:31 - 08:32
EN: Double Top.
ZH: 双顶
08:40 - 08:43
EN: The bears believe that it’s in a bear trend.
ZH: 空头认为这是下降趋势
08:43 - 08:45
EN: They’re expecting every reversal up to fail.
ZH: 他们预期每次反转上涨的尝试都会失败
08:46 - 08:51
EN: Therefore, if there’s a big bull trend bar in the middle third
ZH: 所以，如果在中间或顶部三分之一， 出现一根大阳线收在最高
08:49 - 08:58
EN: or top third of the most recent selloff, bears will sell the close betting
ZH: 所以，如果在中间或顶部三分之一， 出现一根大阳线收在最高 空头会在它的收盘卖出做空，押注大阳线没有跟随， 押注下降趋势会恢复
08:54 - 08:58
EN: that the bull breakout will fail and that the bear trend will resume.
ZH: 空头会在它的收盘卖出做空，押注大阳线没有跟随， 押注下降趋势会恢复
Slide 008
Time: 09:00
Bilingual Transcript
09:07 - 09:16
EN: Remember, the bears are looking to sell rallies up somewhere in the middle third
ZH: 空头会等价格反弹到中间三分之一、 甚至顶部三分之一、至少是上半区域的时候卖出做空
09:12 - 09:16
EN: or even the top third, somewhere in the top half of the most recent bear leg.
ZH: 空头会等价格反弹到中间三分之一、 甚至顶部三分之一、至少是上半区域的时候卖出做空
09:16 - 09:18
EN: Therefore, the bears are not selling down here.
ZH: 所以空头不会在这里卖出
09:18 - 09:20
EN: They’re selling up there.
ZH: 他们想要逢高卖出
09:20 - 09:26
EN: There is then a lack of sellers here, and the reversal up can be fairly sharp.
ZH: 没有人在这里卖出，所以价格快速上涨
09:32 - 09:37
EN: You get a buy vacuum up to a resistance area, up to the sell zone,
ZH: 真空上涨到阻力区域、卖出区域
09:37 - 09:41
EN: and it can be fairly sharp, and the market can even become Always In Long.
ZH: 有时上涨非常迅速，甚至进入单边上涨
09:41 - 09:43
EN: Here we have a series of bull bars,
ZH: 这里有一连串阳线
09:43 - 09:46
EN: and the market probably is Always In Long for most traders here.
ZH: 很多交易者都会在这里买入做多
09:46 - 09:49
EN: Here, a good bull breakout above a bear flag.
ZH: 这里，大阳线强势突破了熊旗
09:49 - 09:51
EN: Market might be Always In Long for a lot of traders.
ZH: 很多交易者会入场做多
09:52 - 09:53
EN: The bulls think they won.
ZH: 多头认为他们赢了
09:53 - 09:56
EN: But the market rallies into the sell zone.
ZH: 但价格已经反弹到了卖出区域
09:56 - 09:59
EN: The bears are going to bet against the bulls.
ZH: 空头会押注多头失败
09:59 - 10:03
EN: They’ll bet that the bull breakouts will fail and that the market
ZH: 他们押注多头突破失败，市场会继续下跌到新低
10:02 - 10:06
EN: will continue down to a new low, so the bears will sell strong bull bars
ZH: 他们押注多头突破失败，市场会继续下跌到新低 所以空头在大阳线的收盘卖出
10:06 - 10:13
EN: or reversals down after a strong rally, betting that the rally is minor
ZH: 或者在反转下跌时卖出， 押注只是小反转，会恢复下跌、创新低
10:11 - 10:13
EN: and that it will lead to a new low.
ZH: 或者在反转下跌时卖出， 押注只是小反转，会恢复下跌、创新低
10:22 - 10:26
EN: When the market gets up into the sell zone, the upper two-thirds,
ZH: 市场涨到卖出区域，上面三分之二
10:26 - 10:31
EN: the upper half, the bears overwhelm the bulls and the bulls take profits.
ZH: 或者上半区域，卖盘远大于买盘，多头止盈
10:31 - 10:34
EN: Most of the bulls are scalping because they know the market’s in a bear trend.
ZH: 大多数多头只是在剥头皮， 因为他们知道市场仍然是下降趋势
10:35 - 10:37
EN: The market then goes back down.
ZH: 于是再次下跌
10:37 - 10:39
EN: The bulls are selling out of their longs.
ZH: 多头正在卖出止盈
10:39 - 10:41
EN: The bears are selling into their shorts.
ZH: 空头正在卖出做空
Slide 009
Time: 10:45
Bilingual Transcript
10:48 - 10:52
EN: Whenever the market’s in a Broad Bear Channel, there are many times
ZH: 当市场处于宽通道的时候，
10:52 - 10:55
EN: when you have two choices for stops and both are reasonable.
ZH: 经常会有不止一个止损的选择，它们都是合理的
10:58 - 10:59
EN: A major Lower High.
ZH: 重要的高点
10:59 - 11:01
EN: We have a Double Top and a breakout to a new low.
ZH: 双顶，下跌到新低
11:02 - 11:04
EN: Reasonable location for a stop.
ZH: 止损放在这里是合理的
11:09 - 11:13
EN: Strong breakout to a new low followed by a reasonably strong reversal up.
ZH: 强势跌破到新低，然后大幅反弹
11:14 - 11:17
EN: This is a major Lower High, and the same here.
ZH: 这是一个重要的高点，这里也是一样
11:17 - 11:21
EN: Strong breakout to a new low following a reasonable reversal up.
ZH: 强势突破到新低，然后大幅反弹
11:25 - 11:27
EN: Now, is this a major Lower High?
ZH: 它是重要的高点吗？
11:27 - 11:34
EN: We have a decent reversal up.
ZH: 反弹之后，下跌，再次下跌，但没有连续的大阴线
11:29 - 11:34
EN: We have a selloff and another selloff, but it lacks consecutive big bear bars,
ZH: 反弹之后，下跌，再次下跌，但没有连续的大阴线
11:34 - 11:38
EN: so not a strong bear reversal, and it did not go to a new low.
ZH: 所以不是强势的空头突破，而且也没有跌到新低
11:39 - 11:42
EN: The bears can argue that it’s a strong enough reversal down
ZH: 也许有人觉得这里的下跌足够强势
11:42 - 11:45
EN: so that they do not want the rally to go above this high,
ZH: 他们不想价格超过这个高点
11:45 - 11:47
EN: but it’s really a minor Lower High.
ZH: 但它真的没那么重要
11:47 - 11:51
EN: It did not break strongly to a new low, did not have consecutive big bear bars.
ZH: 没有跌到新低，没有连续的大阴线
11:52 - 11:55
EN: Therefore, if it goes above this high, some bears might get out
ZH: 所以，就算价格超过这个高点，
11:55 - 11:59
EN: and sell more on a reversal down, but it’s also reasonable
ZH: 空头离场之后，也会在反转下跌时再次做空
11:59 - 12:01
EN: to use this high for the stop.
ZH: 或者，把止损放在它的上方也是合理的
12:01 - 12:06
EN: Put a stop just above this high, because this clearly is a major Lower High.
ZH: 止损放在这个高点上方，因为它显然是一个重要的高点
12:13 - 12:18
EN: If you do use the tighter stop, you’ll lose less money,
ZH: 如果使用较窄的止损，每次亏的比较少
12:18 - 12:19
EN: but you’ll lose more often.
ZH: 但亏损次数更多
12:19 - 12:22
EN: If you use the wider stop, when it does get hit
ZH: 如果你使用更宽的止损，每次止损被打到
12:22 - 12:25
EN: you’ll lose more money, but you’ll lose less often.
ZH: 单次亏损会比较大，但亏损的次数较少
12:25 - 12:30
EN: If you take the wider stop or the tighter stop on 10 different trades,
ZH: 如果你用窄止损和宽止损分别做10笔交易
12:30 - 12:32
EN: your total profit will be about the same.
ZH: 最后总的利润是差不多的
12:33 - 12:38
EN: Therefore, if you take any reasonable stop,
ZH: 因此，只要合理，不管是窄止损还是宽止损都可以
12:36 - 12:38
EN: it doesn’t matter if one is further away.
ZH: 因此，只要合理，不管是窄止损还是宽止损都可以
12:38 - 12:41
EN: The profit result will be about the same.
ZH: 长期下来的结果是一样的
12:46 - 12:50
EN: Bears using the tighter stop will sell on the reversal down.
ZH: 窄止损被打到的空头，会在反转下跌时再次卖出做空
12:50 - 12:55
EN: Here, it’s the end of the day, and you might wait for a big bear bar
ZH: 这里是当天的收盘； 等第2天开盘，大阴线
12:55 - 12:57
EN: and a follow-through close bar and then sell the close.
ZH: 而且有跟随的阴线，可以在它的收盘卖出做空
13:02 - 13:06
EN: 50% pullbacks are always very important
ZH: 50%反弹永远都非常重要
Slide 010
Time: 13:05
Bilingual Transcript
13:06 - 13:09
EN: because the math favors a resumption of the trend.
ZH: 因为押注趋势恢复在数学上具有优势
13:09 - 13:11
EN: Probability favors the trend continuing.
ZH: 趋势继续的概率更高
Slide 011
Time: 13:13
Bilingual Transcript
13:20 - 13:21
EN: We’re in a bear channel.
ZH: 下降通道
13:21 - 13:23
EN: We’re forming Lower Highs and Lower Lows.
ZH: 高点和低点不断降低
13:23 - 13:24
EN: It’s a weak trend.
ZH: 这是一个弱趋势
13:24 - 13:31
EN: It spends a lot of time going sideways, and sometimes it reverses up strongly,
ZH: 很多时间都在横盘，有时大幅反弹， 甚至让市场进入单边上涨
13:29 - 13:31
EN: enough for the market to become Always In Long.
ZH: 很多时间都在横盘，有时大幅反弹， 甚至让市场进入单边上涨
13:36 - 13:38
EN: However, because it’s a bear trend,
ZH: 然而，因为这是一个下降趋势
13:39 - 13:42
EN: by definition it means it’s more likely to go down than up.
ZH: 根据定义，它更有可能会下跌，而不是上涨
13:43 - 13:46
EN: Therefore, the probability favors a continued series of new lows
ZH: 因此，继续不断创新低的概率更高，
13:47 - 13:51
EN: rather than the market going above major Lower Highs.
ZH: 而不是突破前期的重要高点
13:54 - 13:58
EN: If the market sells off and rallies to about 50%,
ZH: 如果下跌之后，反弹了50%
13:59 - 14:01
EN: the risk for the bears is to above here.
ZH: 空头的止损在它的上方
14:01 - 14:03
EN: The reward is to down here.
ZH: 目标是跌回前期低点
14:03 - 14:05
EN: Risk equals reward.
ZH: 风险等于利润
14:05 - 14:07
EN: But it’s a bear trend.
ZH: 但这是下降趋势
14:07 - 14:15
EN: The probability favors a new low, and therefore even though the risk is equal
ZH: 更有可能跌到新低，所以即使利润只是等于风险， 卖出做空的胜率更高
14:11 - 14:15
EN: to the reward, the probability makes it better to look to sell.
ZH: 更有可能跌到新低，所以即使利润只是等于风险， 卖出做空的胜率更高
14:15 - 14:17
EN: It’s a positive Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 数学期望为正
14:20 - 14:21
EN: Bear leg.
ZH: 下跌波段
14:21 - 14:24
EN: Traders will sell a 50% pullback.
ZH: 交易者会在50%反弹处卖出
14:24 - 14:25
EN: Some will sell with a limit order.
ZH: 一些人会用限价单卖出做空
14:25 - 14:28
EN: Others will sell with a stop on the reversal down.
ZH: 一些人会在反转下跌时用突破卖单做空
14:31 - 14:35
EN: If you sell with a limit order, your profit target is a new low
ZH: 如果你用限价单卖出，你的目标是跌到新低
14:35 - 14:41
EN: and your risk is just above that high, so the reward is equal
ZH: 止损放在前期高点上方，所以利润和风险几乎相等
14:39 - 14:41
EN: to the risk or just about equal to the risk.
ZH: 止损放在前期高点上方，所以利润和风险几乎相等
14:41 - 14:45
EN: But you’re in a bear trend, so the probability favors the bears.
ZH: 但因为这是下降趋势，所以做空在概率上具有优势
14:45 - 14:49
EN: Therefore, the Trader’s Equation is good for taking that short.
ZH: 根据数学期望，做空会更好一些
14:56 - 15:02
EN: If you believe it’s in a bear trend, then you believe
ZH: 如果你认为这是下降趋势， 说明你认为市场有60%概率会继续下跌
14:59 - 15:02
EN: there’s a 60% chance that the market is going to go lower,
ZH: 如果你认为这是下降趋势， 说明你认为市场有60%概率会继续下跌
15:03 - 15:05
EN: and the result is a good Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 所以数学期望为正
15:05 - 15:10
EN: Even though the reward is small relative to risk, it equals the risk,
ZH: 尽管利润不是很大，只是等于风险
15:10 - 15:13
EN: the probability more than offsets the weak risk/reward.
ZH: 但概率弥补了盈亏比的不足
15:15 - 15:19
EN: Stop above the top of the most recent major Lower High,
ZH: 止损放在最近的重要高点上方
15:24 - 15:28
EN: and then take profits either at the prior low or on a reversal up.
ZH: 然后在前期低点止盈，或者在反转上涨时止盈
Slide 012
Time: 15:30
Bilingual Transcript
15:36 - 15:38
EN: A new bear leg.
ZH: 新的下跌波段
15:38 - 15:42
EN: Traders will sell, or many traders will sell with a limit order 50%
ZH: 很多空头会在50%反弹处挂限价卖单
15:42 - 15:46
EN: of the way up, betting that the market’s in a bear trend
ZH: 押注市场处于下降趋势
15:46 - 15:48
EN: and therefore it’s probably going to a new low
ZH: 因此更有可能跌到新低
15:48 - 15:51
EN: before it gets above a major Lower High – and they’re correct.
ZH: 而不是突破前期重要的高点——空头是对的
15:51 - 15:55
EN: Therefore, you can sell and go for a reward equal to your risk,
ZH: 所以可以卖出做空，利润等于风险
15:55 - 16:03
EN: knowing that the 60% probability of reaching your target
ZH: 但60%的概率会赚钱，而不是打掉止损， 数学期望为正
15:59 - 16:03
EN: before hitting your stop makes the Trader’s Equation positive.
ZH: 但60%的概率会赚钱，而不是打掉止损， 数学期望为正
16:05 - 16:13
EN: Many traders prefer to enter with stop orders, so they’ll enter
ZH: 很多交易者更喜欢用突破单入场， 在反转下跌时,他们会在前一根K线下方，尤其是阴线下方
16:08 - 16:13
EN: below the prior bar on a reversal down, especially if it has a bear body,
ZH: 在反转下跌时,他们会在前一根K线下方，尤其是阴线下方
16:13 - 16:21
EN: like here or here – and then take partial or full profits at the prior low,
ZH: 比如这里或这里卖出—— 然后在前期低点附近止盈部分或全部
16:25 - 16:29
EN: or on a reversal up, here or here.
ZH: 或者在反转上涨时止盈，比如这里或这里
16:33 - 16:35
EN: Or at the end of the session.
ZH: 或者持有到收盘前离场
16:35 - 16:39
EN: This is the end of the day, and if you sold up here or anywhere in here
ZH: 马上就要收盘了，如果你在上方的某个地方做空了
16:39 - 16:45
EN: and you’re at the end of the session and you do not want to hold overnight,
ZH: 而且你不想持仓过夜，可以在收盘前离场
16:43 - 16:45
EN: you just get out right before the close.
ZH: 而且你不想持仓过夜，可以在收盘前离场
16:52 - 16:54
EN: Strong breakout to a new low.
ZH: 强势跌破创新低
16:54 - 16:57
EN: Odds are any pullback will get back to the low
ZH: 反弹之后，大概率会先跌回前期低点，
16:57 - 17:04
EN: before it gets above the high, and therefore some traders will sell
ZH: 而不是突破前期重要高点， 所以空头会在50%反弹的地方挂限价卖单
17:00 - 17:04
EN: with a limit order at a 50% retracement of this selloff,
ZH: 而不是突破前期重要高点， 所以空头会在50%反弹的地方挂限价卖单
17:04 - 17:08
EN: or with a stop on a reversal down, especially below a bear bar.
ZH: 或者在反转下跌时用突破卖单入场，尤其是在阴线下方
Slide 013
Time: 17:11
Bilingual Transcript
17:12 - 17:14
EN: 5-minute Globex chart.
ZH: 电子时段的5分钟K线图 （注：指包含盘前、盘后的K线）
17:21 - 17:23
EN: This is 10 days in a Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 这个宽下降通道持续了10天
17:24 - 17:27
EN: On the 60-minute chart it’s a fairly Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 在60分钟图上，它是一个相当窄的下降通道
17:27 - 17:35
EN: The pullbacks are sometimes 20 points tall, and a 20 point pullback
ZH: 有些反弹的幅度是20个点，所以在5分钟图上， 它是一个很宽的下降通道
17:33 - 17:35
EN: means a fairly Broad Channel on the 5-minute chart.
ZH: 有些反弹的幅度是20个点，所以在5分钟图上， 它是一个很宽的下降通道
17:39 - 17:43
EN: Every Broad Bear Channel is going to have Trading Ranges, lots of Trading Ranges,
ZH: 每个宽下降通道里都有很多震荡区间
17:46 - 17:49
EN: and some of them are nested within bigger Trading Ranges.
ZH: 有的小区间被嵌套在大的区间里面
Slide 014
Time: 17:50
Bilingual Transcript
17:53 - 17:56
EN: Trading Range typically is BreakOut Mode.
ZH: 震荡区间通常是突破模式
17:56 - 18:02
EN: BreakOut Mode means the probability of a reversal up is equal
ZH: 突破模式意味着反转上涨的概率等于趋势恢复下跌的概率
18:00 - 18:02
EN: to the probability of trend resumption down.
ZH: 突破模式意味着反转上涨的概率等于趋势恢复下跌的概率
18:03 - 18:07
EN: However, the market’s in a fairly Tight Bear Channel
ZH: 然而，在更高的时间周期，市场处于一个很窄的下降通道
18:06 - 18:07
EN: on a higher timeframe chart.
ZH: 然而，在更高的时间周期，市场处于一个很窄的下降通道
18:07 - 18:10
EN: That means even if you do get a bull breakout,
ZH: 这意味着就算向上突破
18:10 - 18:13
EN: the odds are the market’s going to continue lower.
ZH: 最终市场也会恢复下跌
18:17 - 18:22
EN: Every Trading Range in a bear trend has a bottoming pattern,
ZH: 下降趋势中的所有震荡区间，可以是底部反转结构，
18:22 - 18:24
EN: and it also has a continuation pattern (bear flag).
ZH: 也可以是趋势延续结构（熊旗）
18:24 - 18:27
EN: Every Trading Range in a bear trend is a bear flag,
ZH: 下降趋势中的每个震荡区间都是熊旗
18:27 - 18:30
EN: but there’s always a bottom within it as well.
ZH: 但其中也有某种底部结构
18:33 - 18:37
EN: We have a Trading Range here, and it was part of a Triangle.
ZH: 这里有一个震荡区间，它是三角形的一部分
18:40 - 18:43
EN: This whole area is a Trading Range as well,
ZH: 整个区域是一个震荡区间
18:43 - 18:46
EN: and it’s a Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 高点降低的大反转
18:46 - 18:47
EN: Head and Shoulders Top.
ZH: 头肩顶
18:50 - 18:54
EN: Now we have an Expanding Triangle bottom, two legs down – one, pullback, two.
ZH: 现在有一个扩张三角底，两段下跌——1，反弹，2
18:54 - 18:56
EN: The bulls are hoping for a reversal up.
ZH: 多头希望反转上涨
18:56 - 18:59
EN: Strong enough reversal, second leg up likely
ZH: 上涨足够强势，很可能有第2段上涨
18:59 - 19:02
EN: - maybe this, maybe that – and that was the end of it.
ZH: ——也许是这个，也许是那个——结束了
19:02 - 19:07
EN: So instead of a bull trend, it became a Trading Range and a bear flag.
ZH: 所以它不是上涨趋势，而是震荡区间或熊旗
19:10 - 19:12
EN: Three pushes down, so a Wedge Bottom.
ZH: 3次下跌，因此是一个楔形底
19:13 - 19:16
EN: Bear trend, constantly forming Trading Ranges,
ZH: 下降趋势，不断形成震荡区间
19:16 - 19:18
EN: and every Trading Range has a buy setup.
ZH: 每个震荡区间里都有做多机会
19:20 - 19:22
EN: Another Wedge.
ZH: 又有一个楔形底
19:23 - 19:26
EN: Double Bottom, Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 双底，低点抬高的大反转
19:26 - 19:27
EN: Bear trend.
ZH: 下降趋势
19:27 - 19:31
EN: Strong bull breakout to a Higher Low, and this Higher Low is a Double Bottom.
ZH: 第1次反转上涨，回调低点抬高，形成双底
19:31 - 19:34
EN: The bulls got a swing up, but not much of a bull trend.
ZH: 多头得到了一个上涨波段，但没有形成上涨趋势
19:34 - 19:37
EN: It lasted about a day or so.
ZH: 它持续了大约一天
19:40 - 19:43
EN: Always In Long, but still in a Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 单边上涨，但仍然处于宽下降通道
19:44 - 19:47
EN: Another attempt at a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 再次尝试低点抬高的大反转
19:47 - 19:50
EN: Bear trend, bull breakout.
ZH: 下降趋势，突破趋势线
19:50 - 19:54
EN: Two legs down to a Higher Low, and it became another bear flag.
ZH: 两段下跌，低点抬高，然后它变成了又一个熊旗
19:59 - 20:05
EN: Whenever you see any kind of a pattern, there are often multiple ways
ZH: 所谓的形态只是表面，不要忽略真正的目标
20:02 - 20:05
EN: to label it, but never lose sight of the goal.
ZH: 所谓的形态只是表面，不要忽略真正的目标
20:06 - 20:12
EN: Bulls are looking for a bottom pattern, and it doesn’t matter
ZH: 多头在寻找底部结构， 不管是楔形，还是头肩底，还是双底
20:08 - 20:12
EN: if you call it a Wedge, a Head and Shoulders Bottom, a Double Bottom.
ZH: 多头在寻找底部结构， 不管是楔形，还是头肩底，还是双底
20:12 - 20:16
EN: As long as you see the bottom attempt, that’s all that’s important.
ZH: 关键是要看到筑底的尝试，这是唯一重要的事
Slide 015
Time: 20:20
Bilingual Transcript
20:23 - 20:27
EN: Some of these bottoms led to rallies that lasted for hours,
ZH: 其中一些结构制造了持续好几个小时的上涨
20:27 - 20:30
EN: yet they formed major Lower Highs.
ZH: 但它们变成了下降趋势中重要的高点
20:31 - 20:36
EN: When the bottom fails – for example,
ZH: 如果筑底失败，例如，这里有一个楔形底——1，2，3
20:33 - 20:36
EN: we have a Wedge Bottom here, one, two, three,
ZH: 如果筑底失败，例如，这里有一个楔形底——1，2，3
20:36 - 20:40
EN: and then a Double Bottom Higher Low Major Trend Reversal – but look at this.
ZH: 然后是低点抬高的双底大反转结构——但是看这里
20:41 - 20:42
EN: It failed.
ZH: 反转失败了
20:42 - 20:44
EN: The bulls who bought put a stop below here or here,
ZH: 买入的多头把止损放在这里或这里
20:44 - 20:48
EN: and they got stopped out, and the bulls give up.
ZH: 他们的止损被打掉，多头放弃
20:48 - 20:52
EN: That results in sometimes a fairly sharp breakout below the prior low.
ZH: 有时这会导致价格非常迅速地跌破前期低点
20:56 - 20:58
EN: Bulls tried to get a reversal.
ZH: 多头尝试制造反转
20:58 - 21:00
EN: They had a Triangle bottom.
ZH: 有一个三角形底部
21:00 - 21:03
EN: They were hoping for a reversal up, and they gave up.
ZH: 他们希望反转上涨，然后失败、放弃了
21:04 - 21:07
EN: Bulls tried to get a Double Bottom or Triangle,
ZH: 多头尝试形成双底或三角形
21:07 - 21:09
EN: Higher Low after a strong bear breakout.
ZH: 在大幅下跌之后，低点抬高
21:09 - 21:10
EN: They gave up.
ZH: 多头放弃
21:10 - 21:11
EN: Bulls gave up.
ZH: 多头放弃
21:11 - 21:12
EN: Bulls gave up.
ZH: 多头放弃
21:12 - 21:15
EN: Despite all of these bottoms, the bulls gave up.
ZH: 尽管有这么多底部结构，但多头都失败了
21:19 - 21:24
EN: Whenever there’s a breakout, the bears are going
ZH: 每当价格向下跌破，空头都会寻找MM目标位
21:22 - 21:24
EN: to look for some kind of a Measured Move down.
ZH: 每当价格向下跌破，空头都会寻找MM目标位
Slide 016
Time: 21:25
Bilingual Transcript
No transcript segment aligned to this slide.
Slide 017
Time: 21:30
Bilingual Transcript
21:37 - 21:42
EN: In a bear trend, every Trading Range is a bear flag or it contains a bear flag.
ZH: 在下降趋势中，每个震荡区间都是熊旗，或包含熊旗
21:43 - 21:44
EN: Wedge bear flag.
ZH: 3推楔形熊旗
21:45 - 21:49
EN: A two-legged rally, so a big Low 2 short bear flag.
ZH: 两段式的反弹，所以是一个大的低2熊旗
21:49 - 21:51
EN: Head and Shoulders Top bear flag.
ZH: 头肩顶熊旗
21:53 - 21:54
EN: Head and Shoulders Top.
ZH: 头肩顶
21:57 - 22:00
EN: Low 2, two legs up – one, pullback, two
ZH: 低2，两段上涨——1，回调，2
22:00 - 22:04
EN: - so a Low 2 bear flag and Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 所以是低2熊旗，以及高点降低的大反转
22:06 - 22:09
EN: We have a bull breakout of a Triangle that failed.
ZH: 向上突破三角形失败
22:12 - 22:14
EN: Double Top, Lower High Double Top.
ZH: 高点降低的双顶
22:16 - 22:20
EN: A Wedge rally, so a Wedge rally to a Double Top.
ZH: 楔形反弹，同时和前期高点形成双顶
22:22 - 22:27
EN: All are bear flags, and the odds are the market’s going to resume down.
ZH: 所有这些都是熊旗，市场大概率将继续下跌
22:29 - 22:38
EN: A large Low 2 – Leg 1, pullback, Leg 2, and Leg 2 subdivided into a Wedge rally.
ZH: 大的低2熊旗——1，回调，2； 第2段细分成3推楔形上涨
22:39 - 22:41
EN: A Double Top Lower High.
ZH: 高点降低的双顶
22:41 - 22:45
EN: It’s a Double Top bear flag where the second high is below the first.
ZH: 这是一个双顶熊旗，其中第2个高点略低一些
22:45 - 22:49
EN: The market broke below the neckline and fell for more than a Measured Move.
ZH: 市场跌破颈线，又进一步跌破了MM目标位
22:53 - 22:55
EN: Head and Shoulders Top bear flag.
ZH: 头肩顶熊旗
Slide 018
Time: 23:00
Bilingual Transcript
23:04 - 23:09
EN: Whenever the market’s in a Trading Range, the probability is close to 50/50
ZH: 在震荡区间里，向上和向下突破的概率接近50对50
23:08 - 23:20
EN: for a bull breakout or a bear breakout, but as long as the market’s
ZH: 在震荡区间里，向上和向下突破的概率接近50对50 但只要重要的高点在不断降低， 向下跌破区间底部的概率就总是更高一些
23:11 - 23:20
EN: making a series of Lower Highs, the probability is always slightly higher
ZH: 但只要重要的高点在不断降低， 向下跌破区间底部的概率就总是更高一些
23:16 - 23:20
EN: that there’ll be a successful bear breakout
ZH: 但只要重要的高点在不断降低， 向下跌破区间底部的概率就总是更高一些
23:18 - 23:20
EN: below the bottom of the Trading Range.
ZH: 但只要重要的高点在不断降低， 向下跌破区间底部的概率就总是更高一些
23:24 - 23:27
EN: Consequently, it’s easier for the bears to make money.
ZH: 因此，做空更容易赚钱
23:27 - 23:32
EN: On a higher timeframe chart, as I said,
ZH: 之前提到，在更高的时间周期，比如60分钟， 这是一个很窄的下降通道
23:30 - 23:32
EN: this is a fairly Tight Channel on the 60-minute chart.
ZH: 之前提到，在更高的时间周期，比如60分钟， 这是一个很窄的下降通道
23:32 - 23:35
EN: That tells you that on the 60-minute chart,
ZH: 说明在60分钟图上交易的话，
23:35 - 23:39
EN: it’s certainly going to be easier making money selling
ZH: 做空赚钱更加容易，因为是窄下降通道
23:37 - 23:39
EN: because you’re in a fairly Tight Channel.
ZH: 做空赚钱更加容易，因为是窄下降通道
23:40 - 23:42
EN: This is the 5-minute chart.
ZH: 在5分钟图上，是宽下降通道
23:41 - 23:42
EN: It’s a Broad Channel.
ZH: 在5分钟图上，是宽下降通道
23:49 - 23:51
EN: This is many days on the 5-minute chart.
ZH: 这里有好几天的5分钟K线
23:52 - 23:55
EN: A day trader is going to trade each day as it develops.
ZH: 日内交易者根据当天的行情做交易
23:55 - 23:58
EN: They’re not going to be paying attention to all of these bars.
ZH: 他们不会关注那么多根K线
23:58 - 24:01
EN: They might be aware of the market being in a bear channel,
ZH: 也许他们意识到市场处于一个大的下降通道
24:01 - 24:05
EN: but they know that the market is often Always In Long in a Broad Bear Channel,
ZH: 但他们知道，宽下降通道中也有单边上涨的时候
24:05 - 24:09
EN: and if you’re a day trader, you’re going to be buying during this rally.
ZH: 如果你是日内交易者，你可以在上涨的时候做多
Slide 019
Time: 24:12
Bilingual Transcript
24:19 - 24:22
EN: Broad Bear Channel, and now we’re accelerating downward
ZH: 宽下降通道，现在正在加速下跌
24:22 - 24:25
EN: and we’re getting a bear breakout below the bear channel.
ZH: 加速跌破了通道的下沿
24:25 - 24:28
EN: Whenever you have a bear breakout below a bear channel,
ZH: 加速跌破下降通道的尝试
24:28 - 24:32
EN: 75% chance the breakout’s going to fail and the market
ZH: 75%的概率会失败
24:32 - 24:34
EN: will resume up and test the top of the channel.
ZH: 然后反转上涨，至少测试通道的上沿
24:35 - 24:38
EN: Whenever I see a strong bear breakout below a bear channel,
ZH: 每当我看到市场尝试加速跌破下降通道
24:38 - 24:42
EN: I look at the highest timeframe that shows the Broad Bear Channel,
ZH: 我会切换到能显示这个下降通道的最高时间周期
24:42 - 24:49
EN: and on that timeframe the bear breakout has a 75% chance
ZH: 在那个时间周期上，空头突破75%的概率会失败， 而且会在5根K线之内反转上涨
24:46 - 24:49
EN: of failing and beginning to reverse within 5 bars.
ZH: 在那个时间周期上，空头突破75%的概率会失败， 而且会在5根K线之内反转上涨
24:54 - 24:58
EN: This is a 60-minute chart of this 5-minute chart.
ZH: 这是这段行情的60分钟图
24:58 - 25:02
EN: It fell for about 5 or 6 bars and then reversed.
ZH: 下跌了五六根K线，然后反转上涨
25:06 - 25:13
EN: Only a 25% chance that a breakout below a bear channel
ZH: 只有25%的概率突破能成功，然后进入更强的下降趋势
25:11 - 25:13
EN: will result in an even stronger bear trend.
ZH: 只有25%的概率突破能成功，然后进入更强的下降趋势
25:14 - 25:20
EN: 75% chance it’s going to fail and reverse back up
ZH: 75%的概率突破会失败，并且至少反转上涨到通道的上沿
25:17 - 25:20
EN: to at least the top of the channel.
ZH: 75%的概率突破会失败，并且至少反转上涨到通道的上沿
25:21 - 25:23
EN: Here, I have a 60-minute chart.
ZH: 这是60分钟图
25:23 - 25:26
EN: I could’ve put a 90-minute chart up and it would’ve been the same thing,
ZH: 我也可以放一张90分钟图，也是一样的
25:26 - 25:30
EN: and the reversal would’ve occurred after about 4 or 5 bars.
ZH: 下跌四五根K线之后，就会反转上涨
25:35 - 25:38
EN: We have a breakout and we have a reversal attempt,
ZH: 跳空低开，尝试反转上涨
25:39 - 25:41
EN: and it went a little bit above that low but not much.
ZH: 反弹略微超过突破点，但不多
25:41 - 25:43
EN: So, there’s some overlap.
ZH: 所以，有一些重叠
25:43 - 25:47
EN: Instead of a gap between this high and that low, I call it a negative gap.
ZH: 这个高点和那个低点之间不是真正的缺口， 但我称之为负缺口
25:48 - 25:52
EN: But negative gaps usually also lead to Measured Move projections,
ZH: 负缺口通常也能导致价格继续跌到MM目标位
25:53 - 26:00
EN: and therefore you can look at the midpoint of the overlap between this pullback
ZH: 从下降趋势的起跌点，到反弹和突破点之间的重点， 往下翻一倍，MM目标位在这里
25:57 - 26:00
EN: and this breakout point and project a Measured Move down,
ZH: 从下降趋势的起跌点，到反弹和突破点之间的重点， 往下翻一倍，MM目标位在这里
26:00 - 26:05
EN: and you can see the bears took profits at around the Measured Move target.
ZH: 可以看到空头在MM附近止盈
26:10 - 26:14
EN: Very strong bear breakout, and if you’re trading the 5-minute chart,
ZH: 非常强的空头突破，如果在5分钟图上交易
26:14 - 26:16
EN: you’re going to trade it like you would any breakout,
ZH: 那么就把它当做突破来对待
26:16 - 26:20
EN: and you’d sell for any reason and hold for a swing down.
ZH: 用任何方式卖出做空，然后坚定持有
Slide 020
Time: 26:25
Bilingual Transcript
26:25 - 26:28
EN: A breakout is a spike and then we have a channel,
ZH: 急速下跌，然后进入通道
26:28 - 26:30
EN: so this is a Spike and Channel bear trend.
ZH: 所以这是急速变通道的下降趋势
26:33 - 26:39
EN: No channel lasts forever, and channels usually
ZH: 通道不可能永远持续下去，最终会演变成震荡区间
26:36 - 26:39
EN: ultimately evolve into Trading Ranges.
ZH: 通道不可能永远持续下去，最终会演变成震荡区间
26:45 - 26:53
EN: There’s only a 25% chance of a successful bear breakout
ZH: 只有25%的概率能成功加速跌破，并进入新的下降趋势
26:49 - 26:53
EN: and then a strong selloff and another bear trend.
ZH: 只有25%的概率能成功加速跌破，并进入新的下降趋势
26:53 - 26:57
EN: There’s a 75% chance the breakout will not get very far
ZH: 75%的概率，突破不会走太远
26:57 - 27:00
EN: and then evolve into a Trading Range or possibly even reverse.
ZH: 然后演变成震荡区间，甚至可能反转上涨
27:07 - 27:11
EN: Very strong rally in a Tight Bull Channel.
ZH: 在5分钟图上，这是窄上涨通道，强势上涨
27:09 - 27:11
EN: 5-minute chart.
ZH: 在5分钟图上，这是窄上涨通道，强势上涨
27:11 - 27:14
EN: If you looked at a higher timeframe chart, this would be a breakout,
ZH: 如果看更高的时间周期，它就是一次突破
27:14 - 27:16
EN: and therefore it’s a spike, pullback, channel.
ZH: 所以是急速上涨、回调、进入通道
27:16 - 27:18
EN: So, Spike and Channel bull trend.
ZH: 急速变通道的上涨趋势
27:21 - 27:27
EN: Here we have a Spike and Channel down, we have a Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 之前是急速下跌，进入下降通道， 宽下降通道往往演变成大的震荡区间
27:24 - 27:27
EN: Broad Bear Channels usually evolve into big Trading Ranges,
ZH: 之前是急速下跌，进入下降通道， 宽下降通道往往演变成大的震荡区间
27:27 - 27:29
EN: and that’s what happened here.
ZH: 也就是这里发生的事情
27:29 - 27:32
EN: A Broad Bear Channel has lots of two-sided trading,
ZH: 宽下降通道中做多做空都有机会赚钱
27:32 - 27:36
EN: and at some point the bulls take control and we get a bull leg.
ZH: 有的时候多头掌控市场，制造上涨波段
27:36 - 27:41
EN: The Broad Bear Channel ultimately becomes a bear leg in a big Trading Range,
ZH: 宽下降通道最终变成大的震荡区间
27:41 - 27:45
EN: and that means it’ll lead to a bull leg in that Trading Range.
ZH: 也就是说，宽下降通道之后会有上涨波段
27:50 - 27:53
EN: Once a chart starts making a series of Higher Highs,
ZH: 一旦高点开始不断抬高
27:53 - 27:57
EN: traders have to exit their shorts because it’s no longer a bear trend.
ZH: 空头就必须离场，因为已经不再是下降趋势
27:57 - 28:02
EN: It’s now a bull trend, and the bears will stop selling
ZH: 现在是上涨趋势，如果强势上涨，空头就不会再做空了
28:00 - 28:02
EN: if the bull trend is strong.
ZH: 现在是上涨趋势，如果强势上涨，空头就不会再做空了
28:08 - 28:13
EN: We have a Higher Low and strong reversal up to a new high,
ZH: 低点抬高，强势上涨到新高
28:13 - 28:14
EN: so this is a major Higher Low.
ZH: 所以它是重要的低点
28:14 - 28:18
EN: We have a small Higher Low here, but a reversal up
ZH: 之前这里有一个小的低点
28:18 - 28:20
EN: above that high in a very Tight Bull Channel.
ZH: 在窄通道中反转上涨，突破前期高点
28:20 - 28:24
EN: This at some point in here is a major Higher Low.
ZH: 此时它是重要的低点
28:24 - 28:31
EN: Any pullback has to stay above that low for the bulls
ZH: 它不能被跌破，否则多头就不认为上涨趋势仍然完好
28:28 - 28:31
EN: to believe the bull trend is still in effect.
ZH: 它不能被跌破，否则多头就不认为上涨趋势仍然完好
Slide 021
Time: 28:34
Bilingual Transcript
28:36 - 28:39
EN: I talked about sell zones in Broad Bear Channels.
ZH: 这节课我讲了宽下降通道中的卖出区域
28:39 - 28:42
EN: Bears start to sell somewhere in the middle third.
ZH: 空头会在反弹到中间三分之一区域的时候卖出做空
28:42 - 28:46
EN: If the Broad Bear Channel is mostly sideways, mostly in a Trading Range,
ZH: 如果大部分时间在横盘，更像是震荡区间
28:46 - 28:49
EN: the bears will look to sell further up, maybe in the top third.
ZH: 空头会在更高的地方卖出，比如顶部三分之一区域
28:51 - 28:56
EN: Traders are always looking to sell a 50% pullback
ZH: 因为市场处于下降趋势， 所以空头喜欢在50%反弹处卖出做空
28:54 - 28:56
EN: because they know the market’s in a bear trend.
ZH: 因为市场处于下降趋势， 所以空头喜欢在50%反弹处卖出做空
28:56 - 29:04
EN: Therefore, the probability is 60% or more that the market
ZH: 60%的概率市场会先下跌创新低， 而不是上涨突破前一个重要的高点
29:00 - 29:04
EN: will go to a new low before it goes above a major Lower High.
ZH: 60%的概率市场会先下跌创新低， 而不是上涨突破前一个重要的高点
29:05 - 29:09
EN: Traders therefore sell either with a limit order around a 50% pullback
ZH: 所以空头会在50%反弹处挂限价卖单
29:09 - 29:13
EN: or on a reversal down, expecting a new low.
ZH: 或者在下跌时用突破卖单入场，押注价格创新低
29:17 - 29:18
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
29:18 - 29:20
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
29:20 - 29:24
EN: This is the fifth of five videos on trading Broad Bear Channels.
ZH: 如何交易宽下降通道的5节课，到这里就全部讲完了