al-brooks-course
42C - Trading Climactic Reversals (Failed Breakouts)
Raw transcript and slide notes for 42C - Trading Climactic Reversals (Failed Breakouts).
Overview
- Slides: 14
- Transcript segments: 807
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:09
EN: This is the third of three videos on trading climactic reversals.
ZH: 这是如何交易高潮反转的第3节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:12
Bilingual Transcript
00:13 - 00:18
EN: I’m going to focus on minor climactic reversals in this video.
ZH: 这节课我会重点讲解高潮后的小反转
00:18 - 00:27
EN: A minor reversal is typically small and is not strong enough to lead
ZH: 小反转不足以让市场进入相反的趋势，比如——
00:23 - 00:27
EN: to a major reversal of the trend, for example,
ZH: 小反转不足以让市场进入相反的趋势，比如——
00:27 - 00:30
EN: from a bull trend to a bear trend or a bear trend to a bull trend.
ZH: 从上涨趋势到下降趋势，或者从下降趋势到上涨趋势
00:30 - 00:34
EN: More likely it’s going to lead to a Trading Range or a pullback.
ZH: 更有可能会进入震荡区间，或者调整后趋势恢复
Slide 002
Time: 00:35
Bilingual Transcript
00:41 - 00:44
EN: I think it’s important to remember the market cycle.
ZH: 关键是要记住市场周期
00:44 - 00:49
EN: It’s rare for a strong trend to reverse into an opposite strong trend.
ZH: 强趋势很少会直接被反转成相反的强趋势
00:49 - 00:54
EN: Usually it has to transition into an intermediate state first,
ZH: 通常它必须先过渡到一个中间状态，比如震荡区间
00:52 - 00:54
EN: like a Trading Range.
ZH: 通常它必须先过渡到一个中间状态，比如震荡区间
00:59 - 01:02
EN: And therefore, if you have a strong trend that is trying to reverse,
ZH: 所以，如果你看到一个强上涨趋势正在下跌，
01:02 - 01:10
EN: the reversal is probably going to be minor and result in either a bull flag,
ZH: 那更有可能是小反转，然后变成牛旗，或者震荡区间
01:07 - 01:10
EN: if you’re talking about a bull trend, or a Trading Range.
ZH: 那更有可能是小反转，然后变成牛旗，或者震荡区间
01:10 - 01:14
EN: If you’re talking about a bear trend and you get a fairly minor reversal,
ZH: 如果一个强下降趋势正在反弹，它很可能是小反转
01:14 - 01:17
EN: you’re probably going to get a bear flag or a Trading Range.
ZH: 然后变成熊旗，或者震荡区间
01:17 - 01:20
EN: However, once the market enters a Trading Range,
ZH: 然而，一旦市场进入震荡区间
01:20 - 01:25
EN: it then always tries to come up with a credible reversal pattern.
ZH: 就一定会形成一个看起来很可靠的反转结构
01:25 - 01:32
EN: About 40% of the time you will get an actual trend reversal
ZH: 大约40%的时间，这个结构真的能够导致反转
01:29 - 01:32
EN: from a credible reversal pattern.
ZH: 大约40%的时间，这个结构真的能够导致反转
01:35 - 01:38
EN: The market’s trending up, and now we get a bigger bar,
ZH: 市场在上涨，现在出现了一根较大的阳线
01:38 - 01:40
EN: and therefore it’s a climax.
ZH: 所以它是抢购高潮
01:40 - 01:41
EN: There’s a tail on top.
ZH: 顶部有上影线
01:41 - 01:44
EN: There’s a follow-through bar, which is good for the bulls,
ZH: 后面有跟随的阳线，对多头有利
01:44 - 01:46
EN: but that tail is a problem.
ZH: 但那个上影线是一个隐患
01:46 - 01:49
EN: If I were to draw a trend line connecting these highs,
ZH: 如果画一条通道线连接这些高点
01:49 - 01:52
EN: this is a bull breakout above these highs.
ZH: 它正在加速突破通道
01:52 - 01:56
EN: It’s also a breakout above a Trading Range, and it’s also a Parabolic Wedge.
ZH: 它也突破了震荡区间的高点，也是一个抛物线楔形
01:56 - 02:01
EN: Three pushes up – one, two, three.
ZH: 3次推动——1，2，3
02:03 - 02:08
EN: A lot of traders would consider selling the close
ZH: 很多交易者会考虑在跟随K线的收盘卖出， 主要是因为这个长上影线
02:05 - 02:08
EN: of the follow-through bar, especially after this big tail.
ZH: 很多交易者会考虑在跟随K线的收盘卖出， 主要是因为这个长上影线
02:08 - 02:12
EN: I think it’s not likely to be a very profitable short
ZH: 我认为在这里做空大概率赚不到什么钱
02:12 - 02:15
EN: because of how tight this entire channel is.
ZH: 因为整个通道非常窄
02:15 - 02:20
EN: Yes, it’s a Buy Climax, but a trader taking that short probably has to use
ZH: 是的，它确实是抢购高潮，但在这里做空的话就要用宽止损
02:20 - 02:22
EN: a fairly wide stop, at least a Measured Move up,
ZH: 至少放在多头的MM目标位上方——
02:22 - 02:26
EN: maybe based upon the height of this final leg – so a stop up here
ZH: 把这段高度往上翻一倍——止损在这里
02:26 - 02:30
EN: - and he probably has to be willing to scale in higher to make money.
ZH: 而且大概率需要在更高的价格加仓卖出，才能赚钱
02:31 - 02:34
EN: However, a lot of bulls will take partial profits
ZH: （虽然空头很难赚钱）但很多多头会止盈减仓
02:34 - 02:38
EN: just in case we get an endless pullback and then a bear breakout.
ZH: 以防出现无尽的回调，然后向下跌破
02:42 - 02:46
EN: Typically when you have a Buy Climax and a bear is selling,
ZH: 通常，如果空头想在抢购高潮时做空
02:46 - 02:50
EN: he’s looking for a test of the bottom of the Buy Climax,
ZH: 他希望去测试抢购高潮的起涨点
02:50 - 02:55
EN: and a test can be exactly down to the Buy Climax low;
ZH: 有时正好回测到这个起涨点
02:55 - 02:58
EN: it could be a little bit below, or here, a little bit above.
ZH: 也可能略微跌破，或者像这里，差一点碰到
02:58 - 03:06
EN: And you can see at one time, this bar was a big bear bar
ZH: 可以看到，它曾经是一根大阴线， 但在收盘时涨上去了，留下了下影线
03:02 - 03:06
EN: with a close at the low, and then it got a tail into the close of the bar.
ZH: 可以看到，它曾经是一根大阴线， 但在收盘时涨上去了，留下了下影线
03:06 - 03:09
EN: And then the next bar reversed up.
ZH: 然后下一根K线反转上涨
03:09 - 03:11
EN: A lot of the bears who did not scalp out
ZH: 那些没来得及快速止盈的空头
03:11 - 03:14
EN: already will get out on this reversal up.
ZH: 会在反转上涨时离场
03:14 - 03:16
EN: They’re afraid that this is going to be a Double Bottom
ZH: 他们担心这变成一个双底
03:16 - 03:23
EN: - this low testing that low, and then breaking above the neckline
ZH: ——这个低点和那个低点， 然后突破颈线，涨到MM目标位
03:21 - 03:23
EN: and rallying for a Measured Move.
ZH: ——这个低点和那个低点， 然后突破颈线，涨到MM目标位
03:26 - 03:28
EN: And the bulls know that as well.
ZH: 多头也知道这一点
03:28 - 03:30
EN: If you want, you can call it a High 2.
ZH: 你可以把它看作是高2
03:30 - 03:35
EN: There’s a High 1 here, and then going above the prior bar would be a High 2 buy.
ZH: 这里是高1，然后突破前1根K线的高点，就是高2入场点
03:35 - 03:39
EN: Plus it’s a Double Bottom, plus you have a very Tight Bull Channel.
ZH: 加上这是一个双底，而且左边的上涨通道很窄
03:39 - 03:43
EN: Therefore, it’s likely that the selloff is going to be a bull flag
ZH: 因此，这段下跌很可能只是牛旗
03:43 - 03:48
EN: and the bull trend will resume, and therefore bulls who are not long will buy
ZH: 然后上涨趋势恢复，所以还没入场的多头会在这根K线上方买入，
03:48 - 03:53
EN: above the high of this bar betting on the High 2,
ZH: 押注高2入场点会成功，押注空头会放弃
03:51 - 03:53
EN: knowing that the bears will give up.
ZH: 押注高2入场点会成功，押注空头会放弃
03:53 - 03:55
EN: If you want, you can also call it a Wedge.
ZH: 你也可以把它看作是楔形牛旗
03:55 - 04:00
EN: Three or four pushes down – one or one, and then two or three,
ZH: 3或4次向下推动——1，或者1，然后2，3
04:00 - 04:03
EN: or one, two, and then sideways and then three.
ZH: 或者1，2，然后横盘，3
04:10 - 04:12
EN: Another breakout.
ZH: 再次突破
04:12 - 04:14
EN: You’d expect at least a small second leg up,
ZH: 预期至少会有小的第2段上涨
04:14 - 04:21
EN: and the bulls got it – but a fairly Tight Trading Range late
ZH: 确实有第2段——然而，上涨趋势后期， 如果出现很窄的震荡区间，通常会变成末端牛旗
04:18 - 04:21
EN: in a bull trend often becomes the Final Flag.
ZH: 确实有第2段——然而，上涨趋势后期， 如果出现很窄的震荡区间，通常会变成末端牛旗
04:21 - 04:22
EN: And look at this.
ZH: 仔细看
04:22 - 04:24
EN: We have a bull bar, bad follow-through.
ZH: 阳线，跟随很差
04:24 - 04:25
EN: Bull bar, bad follow-through.
ZH: 阳线，跟随很差
04:25 - 04:29
EN: A pair of bull bars, shrinking bodies, and then a doji bar.
ZH: 两根阳线，体积越来越小，然后十字星
04:29 - 04:36
EN: This is a Wedge Higher High, and a lot of the bulls
ZH: 高点抬高的大反转中嵌套了小的3推楔形 所以很多多头会在它的下方离场，以防会有两段下跌
04:32 - 04:36
EN: will get out below this low, betting that we’ll get a couple legs down.
ZH: 高点抬高的大反转中嵌套了小的3推楔形 所以很多多头会在它的下方离场，以防会有两段下跌
04:36 - 04:39
EN: This is the end of the day; there’s no time for two legs down.
ZH: 此时已经接近收盘，没有时间形成两段下跌了
04:39 - 04:44
EN: However, the bulls who did buy would either get out below this doji bar,
ZH: 然而，之前做多的多头会在这个十字星的低点下方
04:44 - 04:47
EN: on the close of that doji bar, or maybe on the close of this bear bar.
ZH: 或者在十字星的收盘，或者在这根阴线的收盘离场
04:49 - 04:52
EN: When you’re selling a Buy Climax, the goal is a scalp.
ZH: 如果你在抢购高潮做空，那么目标应该是剥头皮
04:52 - 04:56
EN: However, if you get decent Selling Pressure in the reversal down
ZH: 然而，如果下跌过程中出现了很大的卖压
04:56 - 05:00
EN: - the reversal down is minor – then the bull trend resumes
ZH: ——尽管它仍然是小反转——然后上涨趋势恢复
05:00 - 05:04
EN: and reverses a second time, that is more likely to lead to a major reversal.
ZH: 再次反转下跌的时候，形成大反转的概率就变高了
05:04 - 05:07
EN: This is not much Selling Pressure.
ZH: 这里没有什么卖压
05:07 - 05:10
EN: The market went sideways for about 7 or 8 bars,
ZH: 市场只是横盘了7~8根K线
05:10 - 05:13
EN: but where are the consecutive big bear bars?
ZH: 有连续的大阴线吗？
05:13 - 05:15
EN: Why did it not fall below the Buy Climax low?
ZH: 为什么没有跌破抢购高潮的起涨点？
05:15 - 05:18
EN: Why are there no very big bear bars?
ZH: 为什么没有很大的大阴线？
05:18 - 05:27
EN: This is probably not a strong enough minor reversal for traders
ZH: 所以这个小反转不够强势，不足以让交易者认为尾盘会有大反转
05:22 - 05:27
EN: to look for a major reversal, and also the end of the day.
ZH: 所以这个小反转不够强势，不足以让交易者认为尾盘会有大反转
05:27 - 05:29
EN: Do you want to be selling this for a swing down?
ZH: 可以在这里做空，预期有下跌的波段吗？
05:29 - 05:31
EN: There are only 3 bars left in the day.
ZH: 离收盘只剩3根K线
05:31 - 05:33
EN: You’re not going to get a swing.
ZH: 没有波段的机会了
05:34 - 05:37
EN: You can call it a small Major Trend Reversal,
ZH: 也许可以把它看成一个小的大反转结构
05:37 - 05:40
EN: Higher High Major Trend Reversal, Wedge Higher High.
ZH: ——高点抬高的大反转，嵌套3推楔形
05:40 - 05:44
EN: But end of the day, if you’re selling, at best you’re hoping
ZH: 但在尾盘，如果你做空了
05:44 - 05:49
EN: for a scalp because it’s not going to fall all that far
ZH: 你只能期望剥头皮的利润，因为只剩下3根K线，很难跌太多
05:47 - 05:49
EN: when there are only 3 bars left in the day.
ZH: 你只能期望剥头皮的利润，因为只剩下3根K线，很难跌太多
Slide 003
Time: 05:55
Bilingual Transcript
05:57 - 06:01
EN: When you have a fairly strong bear trend, even if it’s climactic,
ZH: 如果有一个非常强势的下降趋势，即使它是抛售高潮
06:01 - 06:04
EN: the first reversal up is typically minor,
ZH: 第一次上涨通常也是小反转
06:04 - 06:07
EN: which means it becomes a bear flag or a Trading Range.
ZH: 也就是说，它会变成熊旗，或者震荡区间
06:07 - 06:10
EN: However, once it enters a Trading Range,
ZH: 然而，在进入震荡区间之后，
06:10 - 06:14
EN: then it has a chance, a better chance of a major reversal.
ZH: 就有机会形成大反转
06:18 - 06:22
EN: We have a bigger bear bar after 2 or 3 smaller bear bars.
ZH: 在两三根较小的阴线之后，出现了大阴线
06:22 - 06:27
EN: Actually, this bar is the biggest bear bar in this entire series of 6 bear bars,
ZH: 事实上，它是这连续6根阴线中体积最大的一个
06:27 - 06:32
EN: and therefore it’s an increase in the selling, and therefore climactic.
ZH: 抛售变得更剧烈，所以是高潮
06:32 - 06:37
EN: It’s also forming about 20 bars into the trend, and when I look back at this,
ZH: 另外，趋势也已经持续了大约20根K线，回过头来看
06:37 - 06:40
EN: it’s probably the single best bear bar in the entire trend.
ZH: 它好像是整个趋势中最大的大阴线
06:40 - 06:45
EN: When you get exceptional strength late in a trend, after 20 or more bars,
ZH: 在趋势的后期——至少20根K线——出现异常强势的大阴线
06:45 - 06:49
EN: it’s more likely to lead to exhaustion than an acceleration of the trend.
ZH: 趋势更有可能会衰竭，而不是加速变得更强
06:49 - 06:54
EN: Exhaustion, an exhaustive Sell Climax, does not mean the market reverses up.
ZH: 衰竭，抛售高潮，不代表市场一定会反转上涨
06:54 - 06:57
EN: It means that the bears are exhausted.
ZH: 只是代表空头暂时力竭了
06:57 - 06:58
EN: They’ll take partial profits.
ZH: 他们会减仓止盈
06:58 - 07:00
EN: Bulls might start to scalp.
ZH: 多头可能会开始买入剥头皮
07:00 - 07:08
EN: However, the reversal up usually tests the top of the final Sell Climax
ZH: 通常会反弹去测试抛售高潮的起跌点，然后进入震荡区间
07:04 - 07:08
EN: (this high) and then enters a small Trading Range.
ZH: 通常会反弹去测试抛售高潮的起跌点，然后进入震荡区间
07:09 - 07:11
EN: When you have a very Tight Bear Channel like this,
ZH: 当下降通道这么窄的时候，
07:11 - 07:15
EN: the first reversal up is not likely to lead to a bull trend.
ZH: 第一次反转很难直接进入上涨趋势
07:15 - 07:18
EN: You’re probably going to need some kind of a Double Bottom,
ZH: 通常至少需要某种双底的结构——
07:18 - 07:21
EN: and the bear trend will probably resume.
ZH: 因为至少会有小的第2段
07:21 - 07:24
EN: You can see it tested the low close here.
ZH: 可以看到，市场测试了前期最低的收盘价
07:24 - 07:29
EN: However, once you get that Double Bottom,
ZH: 在形成双底之后，大反转的概率就变高了
07:26 - 07:29
EN: you have a better chance of a major reversal.
ZH: 在形成双底之后，大反转的概率就变高了
07:29 - 07:35
EN: So Sell Climax in a very Tight Bear Channel, minor reversal
ZH: 非常窄的下降通道，抛售高潮，小反转，
07:35 - 07:40
EN: into a Trading Range, and once in the Trading Range
ZH: 进入震荡区间，然后多头尝试形成双底
07:38 - 07:40
EN: the bulls will try to get a Double Bottom.
ZH: 进入震荡区间，然后多头尝试形成双底
07:40 - 07:42
EN: Here, a slightly Higher Low.
ZH: 这里，低点略微抬高
07:42 - 07:45
EN: It could be a Lower Low, it could be an exact Double Bottom.
ZH: 也可以略微降低，或者正好是完美的双底
07:45 - 07:49
EN: And once you get that, especially with a good-looking bull signal bar like this,
ZH: 总之，一旦出现双底，尤其是有这么漂亮的做多信号K线
07:49 - 07:52
EN: there’s a better chance of a bigger reversal.
ZH: 大反转的概率就更高了
07:52 - 07:57
EN: This entire series of bear bars, 7 bear bars, is a climax,
ZH: 这里连续7根阴线，是抛售高潮
07:57 - 08:01
EN: and the market may test up to the top of that climax – which it did.
ZH: 市场会去测试它的起跌点——就在这里
08:05 - 08:08
EN: When you have a Sell Climax bar and then you have a follow-through bar,
ZH: 抛售高潮的大阴线之后，有跟随的阴线，
08:08 - 08:11
EN: especially with the tail and not a particularly big body,
ZH: 但下影线很长，而且实体部分很小
08:11 - 08:14
EN: some bulls will buy, looking for a test up here.
ZH: 一些多头会在它的收盘买入，希望市场反弹到这个高点
08:14 - 08:21
EN: Again, first reversal up is minor, and therefore bulls buying here
ZH: 但因为第1次上涨只是小反转，所以在这里买入的多头会很快止盈
08:19 - 08:21
EN: in general are mostly looking for a scalp.
ZH: 但因为第1次上涨只是小反转，所以在这里买入的多头会很快止盈
08:21 - 08:26
EN: Bulls buying here, some will scalp part and some will swing.
ZH: 多头在这里买入，一些人会快速止盈部分仓位，剩下的持有做波段
08:26 - 08:30
EN: And once we’ve had 3 decent bull bars like this, the market’s Always In Long
ZH: 一旦出现这样的连续3根大阳线，市场就已经进入了单边上涨
08:30 - 08:33
EN: and we’re probably going to the next major Lower High,
ZH: 大概率要去测试下一个重要的高点
08:33 - 08:35
EN: which would be the top of this series of bear bars.
ZH: 也就是这一系列阴线的起跌点
08:36 - 08:41
EN: And the bulls who did not fully scalp out would take more profits here.
ZH: 之前没有完全止盈的多头，会在这里再减仓一部分
08:41 - 08:44
EN: After this many bars up, we’re likely to go higher,
ZH: 上涨趋势这么强，大概率还会更高
08:44 - 08:48
EN: so the bulls might be holding onto part of their position even after this.
ZH: 所以多头会继续持有一部分仓位
08:56 - 09:01
EN: Is this a big enough pattern for a major reversal? Not typically.
ZH: 这个结构足以形成大反转吗？通常不能 （注：K线数量不够多）
09:01 - 09:05
EN: Sometimes if it’s in the first hour, a small pattern can be a major reversal.
ZH: 如果是开盘后的第1个小时，即使是小结构也可能造成大反转
09:05 - 09:07
EN: Here, we have a Sell Climax on the open.
ZH: 今天，开盘之后是抛售高潮
09:08 - 09:11
EN: Even though it’s at 8:30, it could be the low of the day,
ZH: 尽管现在只是早上8:30，但今天的最低点可能已经形成了 （注：图上是加州时间，对应美东时间11:30）
09:11 - 09:14
EN: and therefore it’s reasonable to swing at least part.
ZH: 所以留一部分仓位做波段交易是合理的
09:14 - 09:20
EN: And once you start to get a series of bull bars – like here, 3 bull bars,
ZH: 一旦看到连续的阳线——比如这里，3、4根阳线， 那就是买手盘的趋势，只能做多
09:17 - 09:20
EN: 4 bull bars – it’s Buy The Close, it’s Always In Long,
ZH: 一旦看到连续的阳线——比如这里，3、4根阳线， 那就是买手盘的趋势，只能做多
09:20 - 09:27
EN: and it’s likely that we’re going higher, and this might in fact be the low
ZH: 大概率还会继续涨，所以它可能真的是今天的最低点， 那么这就变成了大反转
09:24 - 09:27
EN: of the day and therefore this could be a major reversal.
ZH: 大概率还会继续涨，所以它可能真的是今天的最低点， 那么这就变成了大反转
09:32 - 09:34
EN: For the bears, very Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 对空头而言，下降通道非常窄
09:34 - 09:37
EN: First reversal up, not very strong.
ZH: 第1次反转上涨，不是很强
09:37 - 09:40
EN: The entry bar has a big tail on top.
ZH: 入场K线顶部有长上影线
09:40 - 09:41
EN: The signal bar has a bear body.
ZH: 信号K线是阴线
09:41 - 09:45
EN: The next bar, tail, small body, and then a bear bar,
ZH: 下一根，有上影线，体积小，然后又是阴线
09:45 - 09:46
EN: another bar with a big tail.
ZH: 有一根长上影线
09:46 - 09:51
EN: At this point this is a bear flag,
ZH: 所以它是熊旗，空头入场做空，至少做一笔剥头皮交易
09:48 - 09:51
EN: and a lot of bears will sell at least for a scalp.
ZH: 所以它是熊旗，空头入场做空，至少做一笔剥头皮交易
09:51 - 09:54
EN: Because of the prominent tails and small bodies,
ZH: 由于上影线很长、体积很小，
09:54 - 09:57
EN: this is likely a bull leg in what will become a Trading Range,
ZH: 这段上涨很可能会变成震荡区间
09:57 - 10:00
EN: and therefore the bears selling here for the most part will scalp.
ZH: 所以逢高做空的空头大部分都会快速止盈
10:00 - 10:01
EN: Not a good-looking sell signal bar.
ZH: 这不是一个很好的做空信号K
10:01 - 10:02
EN: It has a bull body.
ZH: 因为它是阳线
10:03 - 10:06
EN: So again, Trading Range behavior, bears selling for a scalp.
ZH: 所以这是震荡区间的价格行为，空头卖出做剥头皮交易
10:06 - 10:09
EN: They might swing part because we’re still in a bear trend,
ZH: 一些人会做波段交易，因为目前仍然处于下降趋势
10:09 - 10:11
EN: but you’ve got 4 bull bars, no strong bear bars,
ZH: 但这里共有4根阳线，没有强势的阴线
10:11 - 10:18
EN: not a good sell signal bar – probably the first leg down will be bought
ZH: 它也不是好的做空信号K—— 所以下跌之后大概率会被买入
10:18 - 10:22
EN: and we’ll either enter a Trading Range or form a Double Bottom and reverse up.
ZH: 市场要么进入震荡区间，要么形成双底然后反转上涨
Slide 004
Time: 10:25
Bilingual Transcript
10:30 - 10:32
EN: We have a pretty strong bull trend here.
ZH: 这是一个非常强的上涨趋势
10:32 - 10:35
EN: You can argue it’s a 2nd Leg Trap or a Parabolic Wedge.
ZH: 你可以说它是第2段陷阱，或者抛物线楔形
10:35 - 10:39
EN: Three pushes, one, two, three or one, two, three.
ZH: 3次推动——1，2，3；或者1，2，3
10:39 - 10:42
EN: We have a breakout.
ZH: 大阳线突破，预期有第2段上涨
10:40 - 10:42
EN: You’d expect a second leg up.
ZH: 大阳线突破，预期有第2段上涨
10:42 - 10:47
EN: However, it could simply be a buy vacuum test of yesterday’s high
ZH: 然而，它可能是对昨天最高点的真空测试
10:47 - 10:51
EN: and the high of today, especially after a big selloff like this.
ZH: 尤其是在这样的大跌之后
10:51 - 10:55
EN: When you get a big selloff – here, over 10 points –
ZH: 跌幅很大——这里超过10个点 （注：看右边的坐标，当时只有2000点）
10:55 - 10:59
EN: and a reversal, usually the reversal does not lead to a big bull trend.
ZH: 反转之后，通常不会是一个大的上涨趋势 （注：至少当天不会）
10:59 - 11:04
EN: It can get to a new high; however,
ZH: 它可能会创新高，但不会再上涨太多
11:02 - 11:04
EN: it usually does not go strongly up from there.
ZH: 它可能会创新高，但不会再上涨太多
11:04 - 11:06
EN: Usually it enters a Trading Range.
ZH: 通常会进入震荡区间
11:07 - 11:10
EN: At this point we have a fairly strong bull trend.
ZH: 此时上涨趋势非常强势
11:10 - 11:14
EN: Every bar has a low at or above the low of the prior bar.
ZH: 每一根K线的低点都在抬高
11:15 - 11:18
EN: The first reversal down probably only minor,
ZH: 第1次下跌大概率只是小反转
11:18 - 11:20
EN: which means a Trading Range or a bull flag.
ZH: 即震荡区间，或者牛旗
11:21 - 11:27
EN: Not likely to enter a bear trend without first going sideways
ZH: 不太可能直接形成大反转、变成下降趋势
11:25 - 11:27
EN: and creating a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 不太可能直接形成大反转、变成下降趋势
11:30 - 11:34
EN: We have a gap here, the market is rallying weakly,
ZH: 这里有一个缺口，市场看似涨的越来越慢了
11:34 - 11:35
EN: and then we have a big breakout.
ZH: 但突然大幅向上突破
11:36 - 11:38
EN: Is this an exhaustive end of the trend? It might be.
ZH: 它会不会是趋势衰竭前最后的上涨？有可能是
11:38 - 11:42
EN: It might be a buy vacuum test of the top of the bear leg,
ZH: 可能只是对下跌波段起跌点的真空测试
11:42 - 11:45
EN: and it’s a second leg up – one, pullback, two.
ZH: 而且它已经是第2段上涨——1，回调，2
11:45 - 11:46
EN: Could be a 2nd Leg Trap.
ZH: 可能是第2段陷阱
11:46 - 11:50
EN: However, I think more likely this reversal up is so strong
ZH: 然而，更大的概率——因为反转上涨如此的强势
11:50 - 11:53
EN: that this selloff is probably the low of the day,
ZH: 所以它大概率就是今天的最低点
11:53 - 11:59
EN: and today’s going to be a reversal day, which means we’ll probably get up
ZH: 既然今天是一个反转日，所以很可能会去接近之前的最高点， 甚至略微超过它（注：开盘的最高点是磁铁）
11:57 - 11:59
EN: near the high of the day, maybe a little bit above.
ZH: 既然今天是一个反转日，所以很可能会去接近之前的最高点， 甚至略微超过它（注：开盘的最高点是磁铁）
11:59 - 12:03
EN: Probably a Measuring Gap, from this low to this high.
ZH: 所以它大概率是测量型缺口——这个低点到这个高点（往上翻一倍）
12:03 - 12:07
EN: The market probably will rally for about a Measured Move up.
ZH: 市场很可能会涨到MM目标位
12:13 - 12:18
EN: The bulls getting a very big bull breakout
ZH: 这根大阳线非常巨大，尝试加速突破这个很窄的上涨通道
12:15 - 12:18
EN: above a bull channel, fairly Tight Bull Channel.
ZH: 这根大阳线非常巨大，尝试加速突破这个很窄的上涨通道
12:18 - 12:19
EN: Again, it could be a Parabolic Wedge.
ZH: 所以它可能是抛物线楔形
12:19 - 12:21
EN: It is a Parabolic Wedge.
ZH: 这确实是抛物线楔形
12:21 - 12:23
EN: Some traders would say this is the first push;
ZH: 一些交易者认为这是第1推
12:23 - 12:28
EN: others would say this or this was the first push, and then second and third.
ZH: 一些交易者认为第1推在这里，或这里， 然后是2和3
12:28 - 12:31
EN: Big breakout above the top of the bull channel.
ZH: 巨大的阳线加速突破通道上沿
12:31 - 12:35
EN: Also a breakout above the high of the day, but look at the size of this tail.
ZH: 同时也突破了今天前期的最高点，但是看这个上影线
12:35 - 12:43
EN: So that is a lot of selling, and when you get that much selling up there,
ZH: 说明上方有很多卖盘，所以大涨、大跌，造成了困惑
12:39 - 12:43
EN: probably you have big up, big down, big confusion,
ZH: 说明上方有很多卖盘，所以大涨、大跌，造成了困惑
12:43 - 12:46
EN: and probably sideways for a number of bars.
ZH: 大概率会至少横盘一段时间
12:51 - 12:54
EN: This is probably an exhaustive Buy Climax.
ZH: 这很可能是衰竭型的抢购高潮
12:54 - 12:58
EN: This is probably a Buy Climax that will lead to a Measured Move up.
ZH: 这个也是抢购高潮，但它更有可能是测量型缺口
12:58 - 13:04
EN: This is the biggest bull bar 20 bars
ZH: 它是上涨趋势20多根K线以来最大的大阳线， 在昨天的高点附近开始反转下跌
13:00 - 13:04
EN: or so into the bull trend, failing at yesterday’s high.
ZH: 它是上涨趋势20多根K线以来最大的大阳线， 在昨天的高点附近开始反转下跌
13:05 - 13:09
EN: Trying to break above the top of a bull channel and failing.
ZH: 尝试加速突破通道，但是失败了
13:09 - 13:13
EN: Probably the market is going to go sideways to down for about 10 bars.
ZH: 市场大概率会横盘或下跌至少10根K线
13:13 - 13:14
EN: The bulls will get out.
ZH: 所以多头要离场
13:14 - 13:16
EN: We have a bear ii, a pair of bear bars.
ZH: 这里出现了空头的ii结构，两根阴线 （注：连续两根孕线，都是阴线）
13:16 - 13:19
EN: We have a bear bar closing on its low.
ZH: 阴线收在最低
13:20 - 13:26
EN: Bears will sell here, at least for two legs down – one, pullback, two or one,
ZH: 空头会在这里卖出做空，预期至少两段下跌—— 1，反弹，2；或者1，反弹进入三角形，
13:25 - 13:30
EN: pullback into a Triangle, and then two or two – and bulls will get out.
ZH: 空头会在这里卖出做空，预期至少两段下跌—— 1，反弹，2；或者1，反弹进入三角形， 然后2，或者2——所以多头需要离场
Slide 005
Time: 13:35
Bilingual Transcript
13:37 - 13:40
EN: Whenever you have a bull trend and then a Tight Trading Range,
ZH: 在上涨趋势之后，出现了窄震荡区间
13:41 - 13:44
EN: it’s always good to be looking for some kind of a Double Top.
ZH: 总是可以去寻找某种双顶的结构
13:44 - 13:47
EN: If you get a Double Top, especially one with a decent sell signal bar,
ZH: 如果有双顶，尤其还有不错的做空信号K线的话
13:47 - 13:51
EN: you’ll have a 40% chance of two legs down – one, pullback, two
ZH: 40%的概率会有两段下跌——1，反弹，2
13:51 - 13:53
EN: - and therefore bears will look to sell.
ZH: 因此空头会卖出做空
13:53 - 13:59
EN: Usually you do not get the reversal
ZH: 通常需要至少震荡10根K线，才会有反转的结构
13:56 - 13:59
EN: until the Trading Range grows to at least 10 bars.
ZH: 通常需要至少震荡10根K线，才会有反转的结构
13:59 - 14:03
EN: Here’s a Double Top, but barely 10 bars.
ZH: 这里有一个双顶，刚好大约10根K线
14:03 - 14:06
EN: You have a bear bar.
ZH: 有阴线，可以在它的下方卖出
14:04 - 14:06
EN: You could sell below that.
ZH: 有阴线，可以在它的下方卖出
14:06 - 14:10
EN: You can see we broke above this high, and now we’ve got another reversal bar
ZH: 这里略微突破了这个高点之后，再次出现反转的K线
14:10 - 14:13
EN: - again, a bull bar, not all that great.
ZH: 但它是阳线，所以没有那么好
14:13 - 14:15
EN: We have another reversal bar here.
ZH: 这里又有一根反转的K线
14:15 - 14:16
EN: At least it’s not a bull bar.
ZH: 至少它不是阳线
14:16 - 14:18
EN: It’s failing at this high again.
ZH: 始终无法真正突破这个高点
14:20 - 14:25
EN: Probably a 40% chance you’re going to get
ZH: 40%的概率会有至少两段下跌，所以在这里做空是合理的
14:22 - 14:25
EN: at least a couple legs down, so a reasonable sell.
ZH: 40%的概率会有至少两段下跌，所以在这里做空是合理的
14:25 - 14:30
EN: 60% chance it’s going to continue sideways or it’ll just go up.
ZH: 60%的概率它会继续横盘，或者恢复上涨
14:30 - 14:39
EN: However, 40% chance of a swing down where the reward will be at least twice
ZH: 虽然波段下跌的概率只有40%，但利润至少是风险的两倍， 所以做空具有良好的数学期望
14:35 - 14:39
EN: as big as your risk, and therefore the math is good for the bears.
ZH: 虽然波段下跌的概率只有40%，但利润至少是风险的两倍， 所以做空具有良好的数学期望
14:40 - 14:44
EN: Their Actual Risk, if they sold below the low of this bar,
ZH: 如果在这根K线的低点下方卖出，
14:44 - 14:45
EN: is to just above the high of the bar.
ZH: 空头的实际风险只是到这根K线的高点而已
14:45 - 14:49
EN: And if they exited above this bull bar or above this bull bar,
ZH: 如果他们在这根阳线，或这根阳线的上方离场，
14:49 - 14:54
EN: they made many times greater profit than the size of their Actual Risk.
ZH: 利润是实际风险的很多倍
14:54 - 14:56
EN: That is a very good Trader’s Equation,
ZH: 数学期望非常好
14:56 - 15:00
EN: and therefore it was reasonable to take that short.
ZH: 所以在这里做空是合理的
15:04 - 15:08
EN: Entering in a Tight Trading Range, your stop is not far –
ZH: 市场进入窄区间，你的止损比较小，
15:08 - 15:11
EN: either above the high of this sell signal bar
ZH: 要么在这根做空信号K线的高点上方
15:11 - 15:13
EN: or above the high of this sell signal bar.
ZH: 要么在这根做空信号K线的高点上方
15:13 - 15:18
EN: Your risk is not great, and that immediately tells you
ZH: 正因为风险很小，所以你立刻就知道，胜率不会太高
15:16 - 15:18
EN: that the probability is not all that great.
ZH: 正因为风险很小，所以你立刻就知道，胜率不会太高
15:18 - 15:23
EN: Whenever you have a very good risk/reward profile – small risk or great reward
ZH: 每当一笔交易的盈亏比非常好——风险很小，或者利润很大
15:23 - 15:28
EN: - the probability of achieving your goal before your stop is hit is small, right?
ZH: ——那么不被止损、达到目标的概率就不会很高
15:28 - 15:32
EN: So, also, entering in a Tight Trading Range with a stop is always going to be
ZH: 另外，在窄区间中入场的胜率总是不那么高
15:32 - 15:38
EN: a low probability bet because the market is very balanced
ZH: 因为目前多空双方的力量达到了平衡，而你押注空头会胜率
15:35 - 15:38
EN: and you’re betting that, in this case, the bears will win.
ZH: 因为目前多空双方的力量达到了平衡，而你押注空头会胜率
15:38 - 15:40
EN: At best you have a 50/50 chance.
ZH: 最多也就是50对50
15:40 - 15:44
EN: Following a strong bull trend, you probably only have a 40% chance.
ZH: 考虑到左边是强势的上涨趋势，你可能只有40%的概率
15:44 - 15:46
EN: But the math is good.
ZH: 但数学上仍然具有优势
15:47 - 15:52
EN: Some traders do not want to take the low probability trade,
ZH: 尽管风险很小，但一些交易者不想做低胜率的交易
15:50 - 15:52
EN: even though the risk is small.
ZH: 尽管风险很小，但一些交易者不想做低胜率的交易
15:52 - 15:58
EN: They wait for a breakout with 1 or 2 very big bear bars
ZH: 他们会等待1，2或3根大阴线跌破，然后再卖出做空
15:55 - 15:58
EN: or 3 ordinary bear bars and then sell.
ZH: 他们会等待1，2或3根大阴线跌破，然后再卖出做空
15:58 - 16:01
EN: At that point they have a higher probability trade,
ZH: 此时他们的胜率变得更高
16:01 - 16:03
EN: but their stop is further away.
ZH: 但止损也更远了
16:03 - 16:08
EN: In other words, their risk/reward profile is worse,
ZH: 换句话说，盈亏比变差了，得到了更高的胜率
16:06 - 16:08
EN: but their probability is better.
ZH: 换句话说，盈亏比变差了，得到了更高的胜率
16:12 - 16:15
EN: For example, the bears could sell the close of this bar
ZH: 例如，空头可以在这根K线的收盘卖出做空
16:15 - 16:18
EN: and put a stop maybe above the top of the 3 bear bars,
ZH: 然后把止损放在这3根阴线的起跌点上方
16:18 - 16:23
EN: expecting at least two legs down – one, pullback, two.
ZH: 预期至少有两段下跌——1，反弹，2
16:23 - 16:26
EN: And once you get a confirmed breakout like this
ZH: 当你看到确定性很高的突破——
16:26 - 16:29
EN: - 3 consecutive bear bars breaking below the Trading Range,
ZH: 连续3根阴线，跌破震荡区间
16:29 - 16:34
EN: the close of this bar below maybe 10 or 15 bars and the close of this bar,
ZH: 它的收盘低于过去10~15根K线的最低点，
16:34 - 16:37
EN: a second follow-through bear close after the bear breakout
ZH: 是跌破之后的连续第2个跟随的阴线
16:37 - 16:40
EN: - the probability is high that you’ll get a second leg down.
ZH: 很大的概率会有第2段下跌
16:40 - 16:44
EN: And typically when you have a Double Top Tight Trading Range
ZH: 通常，像这种窄振荡区间里的双顶
16:44 - 16:48
EN: Lower High Major Trend Reversal like this, the second leg down is bigger.
ZH: 而且是高点降低的大反转，第2段的跌幅会更大
16:48 - 16:49
EN: It’s climactic.
ZH: 这是抛售高潮
16:50 - 16:52
EN: Double Top here and here.
ZH: 它和它组成了双顶
16:52 - 16:56
EN: If you want, you can call it Double Top here and here, and it’s a Lower High.
ZH: 也可以说它和它组成了双顶，高点降低
16:56 - 17:00
EN: We have a bull trend, a bear breakout below the bull trend line,
ZH: 上涨趋势，趋势线被横向突破
17:00 - 17:05
EN: and therefore it’s a Double Top and a Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 所以它不但是双顶，也是高点降低的大反转
17:05 - 17:11
EN: It’s a type of Lower High Major Trend Reversal
ZH: 在高点降低之后，右边这个更低的高点中具有双顶结构
17:07 - 17:11
EN: in which the Lower High has a Double Top.
ZH: 在高点降低之后，右边这个更低的高点中具有双顶结构
17:11 - 17:12
EN: You could also call it a Triangle.
ZH: 也可以把它看作三角形
17:12 - 17:16
EN: We have four pushes up – one, pullback, two, pullback, three, pullback, four.
ZH: 有4次向上的推动——1，回调，2，回调，3，回调，4
17:20 - 17:23
EN: Because the second leg down is typically climactic,
ZH: 因为第2段下跌是抛售高潮
17:23 - 17:27
EN: a lot of the bears will take profits above the bull bar,
ZH: 所以很多空头会在阳线的上方止盈
17:27 - 17:30
EN: especially since it’s also a breakout test of this high
ZH: 尤其因为它也是对这个高点的突破回测
17:30 - 17:34
EN: and it’s a Higher Low, and we have big down, big up, big confusion.
ZH: 之前这里低点抬高，总体是大跌、大涨、造成大的困惑
17:34 - 17:36
EN: Usually results in a Trading Range.
ZH: 通常会导致震荡区间
17:36 - 17:40
EN: Trading Ranges have deep pullbacks from strong legs.
ZH: 震荡区间中的强势波段会有深度回调
17:40 - 17:42
EN: This is a strong leg, this is a deep pullback.
ZH: 强势上涨，深度回调
17:42 - 17:46
EN: More likely we’re going to form a Higher Low than a new low.
ZH: 更有可能低点会抬高，而不是跌到新低
17:46 - 17:49
EN: If you get a bull bar like this closing in its upper half,
ZH: 如果看到这样一根收在一半以上的阳线
17:49 - 17:51
EN: I think you have to get out above it,
ZH: 我认为空头应该在它的上方离场
17:51 - 17:53
EN: or certainly above this bull bar closing on its high.
ZH: 这根大阳线收在最高，毫无疑问应该离场
Slide 006
Time: 18:00
Bilingual Transcript
18:02 - 18:06
EN: Here’s the open of the day, and we have a big bear breakout,
ZH: 这是今天的开盘，直接大阴线下跌，连续的阴线
18:04 - 18:06
EN: consecutive bear bars.
ZH: 这是今天的开盘，直接大阴线下跌，连续的阴线
18:06 - 18:07
EN: The market’s Always In Short.
ZH: 市场处于单边下跌中
18:07 - 18:12
EN: However, whenever the market makes a strong move on the open,
ZH: 然而，不管开盘时的趋势看上去有多强势
18:12 - 18:16
EN: there’s a 50% chance the move is in the wrong direction.
ZH: 50%的概率第一个方向是错误的
18:16 - 18:20
EN: We have a bear trend and then we have a Trading Range late in the bear trend.
ZH: 下降趋势，到了后期，开始进入震荡
18:20 - 18:23
EN: This is probably going to be the final bear flag.
ZH: 它很可能会成为末端熊旗
18:23 - 18:26
EN: We might get a second leg down after 2 big bear bars like this,
ZH: 这两根大阴线之后可能会有第2段下跌
18:26 - 18:28
EN: but we’re getting a reversal up.
ZH: 但现在价格正在反转上涨
18:28 - 18:31
EN: And this is actually kind of interesting.
ZH: 这里其实很有趣
18:31 - 18:37
EN: This is the first reversal up, when the market went
ZH: 当价格超过这根阳线的高点时，是第1次反转上涨， 然后市场尝试恢复下跌
18:33 - 18:37
EN: above the high of this bull bar, and then the market tried to resume down
ZH: 当价格超过这根阳线的高点时，是第1次反转上涨， 然后市场尝试恢复下跌
18:37 - 18:41
EN: with this bear bar, and then it went above the high of that bear bar as well.
ZH: 然后价格又超过了这根阴线的高点
18:41 - 18:45
EN: This is a type of second entry buy above the high of that bear bar
ZH: 这根阴线的上方就是第2做多入场点——
18:45 - 18:48
EN: for a failed breakout below yesterday’s low.
ZH: 跌破昨天低点失败后的反转上涨
18:48 - 18:49
EN: A second entry buy.
ZH: 第2做多入场点
18:49 - 18:52
EN: The first is above this bull bar, the bear trend resumed,
ZH: 第1入场点在这个阳线的上方，
18:52 - 18:54
EN: and the second is above that bear bar.
ZH: 第2入场点在这个阴线的上方
18:55 - 19:03
EN: Whenever you have a bear trend, you have a 50% chance
ZH: 如果市场处于下降趋势，50%的概率在第2天开盘时会有跟随的抛售
18:59 - 19:03
EN: of some follow-through selling on the open of the next day.
ZH: 如果市场处于下降趋势，50%的概率在第2天开盘时会有跟随的抛售
19:03 - 19:06
EN: Sometimes it’s on the open, sometimes it’s an hour later.
ZH: 有时只是开盘，有时会持续一两个小时
19:07 - 19:15
EN: But you also have a 75% chance of at least two legs
ZH: 同时，有75%的概率，在开盘后的两个小时左右， 开始行程至少两段的上涨或横盘
19:12 - 19:15
EN: sideways to up beginning by the end of the second hour.
ZH: 同时，有75%的概率，在开盘后的两个小时左右， 开始行程至少两段的上涨或横盘
19:15 - 19:24
EN: And therefore, if you get a selloff like this, you have to be aware
ZH: 所以，当你看到这样的抛售， 必须意识到75%的概率会有两段上涨或横盘
19:19 - 19:24
EN: there’s a 75% chance you’re going to get two legs sideways to up.
ZH: 所以，当你看到这样的抛售， 必须意识到75%的概率会有两段上涨或横盘
19:25 - 19:29
EN: Here we got two legs sideways – first leg, pullback, and then second leg.
ZH: 最终这里是两段横盘——1，回调，然后2
19:29 - 19:30
EN: This is too small.
ZH: 这里的K线数量不够
19:30 - 19:32
EN: First leg, pullback, second leg.
ZH: 1，回调，2
19:32 - 19:35
EN: The pattern is too small to correct this.
ZH: 结构太小了，不足以反转这么大的下降趋势
19:35 - 19:38
EN: Typically the pattern is going to last about 20 bars,
ZH: 通常需要持续大约20根K线
19:39 - 19:42
EN: so I’m looking for a correction that’s going to last at least 20 bars.
ZH: 所以我要寻找的是一个至少持续20根K线的结构
19:42 - 19:45
EN: On a 5-minute chart, that’s about 2 hours.
ZH: 在5分钟图上，就是大约2个小时
19:45 - 19:49
EN: Here, it lasted all day, so it lasted more than 5 hours.
ZH: 而这个案例中，持续了一整天，超过了5个小时
19:52 - 19:54
EN: This is a pretty good buy above this bull bar,
ZH: 在这根阳线上方买入是非常不错的，
19:54 - 19:58
EN: betting on a Final Flag and an opening reversal.
ZH: 押注它是末端熊旗，押注会有开盘反转
19:58 - 20:03
EN: A sell vacuum down to below yesterday’s low
ZH: 开盘快速跌破昨天的低点，但之后没有跟随 （注：Al Brooks称之为失败的突破）
20:01 - 20:03
EN: and a failed breakout below yesterday’s low.
ZH: 开盘快速跌破昨天的低点，但之后没有跟随 （注：Al Brooks称之为失败的突破）
20:03 - 20:06
EN: A big magnet here, Trading Range.
ZH: 这里是一个磁铁，因为是震荡区间 （注：多空双方都觉得是公平的价格，所以往往会回到这个区域）
20:06 - 20:08
EN: A lot of Trading Range price action yesterday,
ZH: 昨天有很多震荡区间的价格行为
20:08 - 20:12
EN: and therefore probably a lot of Trading Range price action today,
ZH: 因此今天可能也会一样
20:12 - 20:16
EN: and if you see a strong breakout below the Trading Range,
ZH: 当你看到价格强势跌破区间的底部
20:16 - 20:20
EN: you have to bet there’s at least a 50% chance the breakout’s going to fail.
ZH: 你必须要考虑到，至少有50%的概率突破会失败
20:20 - 20:22
EN: And when it’s happening on the open like this,
ZH: 如果在开盘时出现这样的行情
20:23 - 20:27
EN: 50% chance that you’re seeing the low of the day occurring right on the open.
ZH: 50%的概率，今天的最低点在开盘就形成了
20:28 - 20:31
EN: Is the market Always In Long on the close of this bar or this bar?
ZH: 在它，或者它的收盘，能不能说市场已经进入单边上涨了？
20:31 - 20:35
EN: Probably not, but by the time this bar closes
ZH: 还不行，但等到这根K线收盘后
20:35 - 20:38
EN: - back up near the high of the day, 3 consecutive bull bars,
ZH: ——回到了开盘的高点，连续3根阳线
20:38 - 20:46
EN: 2 with very big bull bodies, a second entry for a failed breakout
ZH: 其中两根体积很大，跌破昨天低点失败后的第2次反转—— 这个时候，市场已经处于单边上涨
20:41 - 20:46
EN: below yesterday’s low – by the close of this bar, the market’s Always In Long,
ZH: 其中两根体积很大，跌破昨天低点失败后的第2次反转—— 这个时候，市场已经处于单边上涨
20:46 - 20:48
EN: and traders believe we’ve seen the low of the day.
ZH: 交易者相信今天的最低点已经出现了
20:48 - 20:52
EN: It turns out the market did not get back above the close of that bar,
ZH: 尽管最后，市场没有再回到那根大阳线的收盘价之上，
20:52 - 20:55
EN: or it did not close above the close of that bar,
ZH: 没有一根K线能收盘在它的上方
20:55 - 20:59
EN: but we knew the odds were at this point we were not going down here.
ZH: 但此时我们至少知道，大概率不会向下跌破
21:00 - 21:02
EN: We have a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 这是低点抬高的大反转
21:02 - 21:10
EN: 40% chance of a swing up, 60% chance of a small profit
ZH: 40%的概率有上涨波段， 60%的概率只是小赚或小亏，也就是今天的情况
21:06 - 21:10
EN: or a small loss, and that’s what the traders got.
ZH: 40%的概率有上涨波段， 60%的概率只是小赚或小亏，也就是今天的情况
21:13 - 21:16
EN: Trading Range late in a bear trend.
ZH: 下降趋势后期的震荡区间
21:16 - 21:20
EN: Probably going to be the final bear flag if the bears get a bear breakout.
ZH: 如果再次跌破（并失败），那么这大概率就是末端熊旗
21:20 - 21:23
EN: The bulls are trying to get a Double Bottom here, break above then neckline,
ZH: 多头尝试形成双底、想要突破颈线
21:23 - 21:27
EN: Measured Move up, and the market opened below that close.
ZH: 涨到MM目标位，但市场直接跳空低开
21:27 - 21:29
EN: The bulls who bought that close are now trapped.
ZH: 昨天尾盘买入的多头现在被套牢了
21:29 - 21:36
EN: The market sold off sharply, and then strong bulls bought
ZH: 开盘大幅下跌，然后强多头在反转上涨时买入， 押注今天的低点已经出现
21:33 - 21:36
EN: on the reversal up, betting on the low of the day.
ZH: 开盘大幅下跌，然后强多头在反转上涨时买入， 押注今天的低点已经出现
Slide 007
Time: 21:40
Bilingual Transcript
21:42 - 21:45
EN: We have a big gap up, and we sold off on the open
ZH: 大幅跳空高开，然后低走，
21:45 - 21:48
EN: and we sold off on a Small Pullback Bear Trend through here.
ZH: 反弹很小的下降趋势，一直跌到这里
21:48 - 21:50
EN: Now the market’s accelerating down.
ZH: 现在市场正在加速下跌
21:50 - 21:53
EN: We have 4 consecutive bear bars closing near their lows,
ZH: 连续4根阴线收在低位
21:53 - 21:58
EN: breaking below this Low 2 short – Low 1, pullback, Low 2, a tight range.
ZH: 这是成功的低2做空入场点——低1，反弹，低2，窄区间
21:58 - 22:02
EN: Do you think this is the start of an even stronger bear trend?
ZH: 你认为市场开始进入更强的下降趋势了吗？
22:02 - 22:07
EN: Here we are, maybe 60 bars into the day, and we’re starting to accelerate down.
ZH: 这里，今天已经下跌了60根K线，然后开始加速
22:07 - 22:11
EN: Or do you think it’s more likely a sell vacuum test of support?
ZH: 还是说你认为它更有可能是对支撑位的真空测试？
22:12 - 22:15
EN: One area of support – yesterday’s close, yesterday’s low,
ZH: 一个支撑区域是——昨天的收盘价，昨天的低点
22:15 - 22:19
EN: and this is probably more likely a sell vacuum test of support.
ZH: 所以这更有可能是对支撑位的真空测试
22:20 - 22:27
EN: It’s a strong enough selloff so that it’s probably going to have
ZH: 这段下跌足够强势，所以大概率至少会有小的第2段下跌， 这可能就是那个第2段下跌
22:23 - 22:27
EN: at least a small second leg down, and this is a small second leg down.
ZH: 这段下跌足够强势，所以大概率至少会有小的第2段下跌， 这可能就是那个第2段下跌
22:27 - 22:36
EN: The bulls broke above the tight bear Micro Channel and the bears tried
ZH: 多头突破了下降窄通道，空头尝试恢复下跌， 但只下跌了1根K线，然后就反转上涨
22:31 - 22:36
EN: to resume down, but all they got was 1 bar and then the market reversed up.
ZH: 多头突破了下降窄通道，空头尝试恢复下跌， 但只下跌了1根K线，然后就反转上涨
22:36 - 22:44
EN: Ultimately the bears got a Double Top and a break
ZH: 最后，空头形成了一个双顶，向下跌破颈线， 然后尾盘跌到了昨天的收盘价（注：补缺口）
22:39 - 22:44
EN: below the neckline of that Double Top, and a selloff down
ZH: 最后，空头形成了一个双顶，向下跌破颈线， 然后尾盘跌到了昨天的收盘价（注：补缺口）
22:42 - 22:44
EN: to yesterday’s close at the end of the day.
ZH: 最后，空头形成了一个双顶，向下跌破颈线， 然后尾盘跌到了昨天的收盘价（注：补缺口）
22:44 - 22:50
EN: However, at this point you have to be thinking
ZH: 然而在这个时候，你必须考虑到，这很可能不是测量型缺口
22:47 - 22:50
EN: that it’s not likely to be a Measuring Gap.
ZH: 然而在这个时候，你必须考虑到，这很可能不是测量型缺口
22:50 - 22:57
EN: It’s more likely to be a bear trap, trapping traders
ZH: 更像是空头陷阱，诱使交易者相信市场会加速下跌
22:54 - 22:57
EN: into believing the bear trend is going to accelerate down.
ZH: 更像是空头陷阱，诱使交易者相信市场会加速下跌
22:57 - 23:01
EN: After the market sells off for 60 bars like this late in the day,
ZH: 当市场已经下跌了60根K线，已经接近尾盘
23:01 - 23:04
EN: especially when the selloff has a lot of sideways trading,
ZH: 其中还有很多震荡的走势
23:04 - 23:07
EN: traders typically look to lighten up.
ZH: 空头通常会趁机减仓
23:07 - 23:09
EN: They look to take partial profits.
ZH: 他们会止盈一部分
23:09 - 23:12
EN: And therefore if you get a sudden big breakout,
ZH: 如果突然出现这么大的跌破
23:12 - 23:16
EN: a lot of the bears are going to say, wow,
ZH: 很多空头会说：“哇哦~尾盘应该会有很多空头回补
23:15 - 23:16
EN: there should be some short covering at the end of the day.
ZH: 很多空头会说：“哇哦~尾盘应该会有很多空头回补
23:16 - 23:22
EN: Bears will take profits, and here we’re getting an opportunity
ZH: 其它空头都会止盈，而现在市场给了我一个在低价买入回补的机会
23:20 - 23:22
EN: to buy back our shorts at a very low price.
ZH: 其它空头都会止盈，而现在市场给了我一个在低价买入回补的机会
23:22 - 23:24
EN: It’s probably not going to last long.
ZH: 这样的机会是很短暂的。”
23:24 - 23:26
EN: And the bears bought back shorts.
ZH: 所以空头买入止盈
23:26 - 23:30
EN: Ultimately, other bears decided that we have a gap bar,
ZH: 最后，其它空头发现，多头制造了缺口K线
23:30 - 23:34
EN: first bars with lows above the Moving Average, gap between the Moving Average
ZH: 这些K线的最低点和均线之间、和这些低点之间存在缺口，
23:34 - 23:38
EN: and the lows of the bars, betting that we would get at least a test back down.
ZH: 但是在反转上涨前，至少还需要回测前期低点附近
23:38 - 23:40
EN: So other bears sold again here.
ZH: 所以他们在这里再次卖出
23:44 - 23:46
EN: If you want, you can call this a Wedge Bottom
ZH: 你可以把它看作是楔形底
23:46 - 23:49
EN: - one, pullback, two, pullback, three.
ZH: ——1，反弹，2，反弹，3
23:49 - 23:52
EN: A test of yesterday’s close, even though not quite there.
ZH: 测试昨天的收盘价，尽管还没有完全碰到
23:52 - 23:55
EN: We’re trying to get a bear breakout below the bear channel.
ZH: 空头尝试加速跌破下降通道的下沿
23:55 - 23:58
EN: Usually you’d expect it to fail.
ZH: 通常这都会失败（注：75%的概率）
24:02 - 24:06
EN: A lot of bulls would buy the first reversal up or the second reversal up.
ZH: 很多多头会在第1次或第2次反转上涨时买入
24:06 - 24:11
EN: Some would buy the close of the bull body, right there,
ZH: 一些人会在阳线的收盘买入，比如这里
24:11 - 24:15
EN: or the close of that bull body, betting that it’s the start of a reversal up.
ZH: 或者在那根阳线的收盘买入，押注这是反转上涨的开始
24:15 - 24:22
EN: When the channel is this tight, is the market going to reverse
ZH: 当通道这么窄的时候，市场会直接反转成上涨趋势吗？ 不会。通常最多形成震荡区间
24:18 - 24:22
EN: into a bull trend? No, it’s probably going to reverse into a Trading Range.
ZH: 当通道这么窄的时候，市场会直接反转成上涨趋势吗？ 不会。通常最多形成震荡区间
24:22 - 24:30
EN: However, it’s reasonable to buy looking for a test
ZH: 然而在这里做多是合理的，押注反弹测试最近的重要高点， 也就是这个抛售高潮的起跌点
24:25 - 24:30
EN: of the most recent major Lower High, which is the top of this Sell Climax.
ZH: 然而在这里做多是合理的，押注反弹测试最近的重要高点， 也就是这个抛售高潮的起跌点
24:30 - 24:36
EN: And you can see traders took profits there and bears sold again up there.
ZH: 可以看到，多头在那里止盈，同时空头又开始卖出
24:37 - 24:44
EN: When you’re buying in a Tight Channel, you’re buying for a scalp
ZH: 在下降窄通道里面做多，这是剥头皮交易， 因为大概率都只是小反转
24:41 - 24:44
EN: because the reversal up is going to be minor.
ZH: 在下降窄通道里面做多，这是剥头皮交易， 因为大概率都只是小反转
24:44 - 24:48
EN: Probably 70% chance, 80% chance it’s going to be minor,
ZH: 70%，80%的概率都是小反转
24:48 - 24:50
EN: and that means you’ll get a test back down.
ZH: 也就是说还会跌回来
24:50 - 24:52
EN: You might then get a major reversal
ZH: 然后看是否会形成大反转的结构
24:52 - 24:55
EN: or you might get a resumption of the bear trend.
ZH: 或者下降趋势恢复
24:59 - 25:02
EN: The bulls who bought here, disappointing entry bar here,
ZH: 在这里买入的多头，对入场K线感到失望
25:02 - 25:03
EN: bad follow-through here.
ZH: 这里的跟随又不好
25:03 - 25:08
EN: Good breakout here, but small bar here, gap bars, late in a trend
ZH: 这根大阳线很好，但这里的小K线，缺口K线
25:08 - 25:11
EN: - usually the market will try to resume down one more time.
ZH: ——通常市场还会再下跌一次
25:12 - 25:17
EN: The initial goal for the bulls was a scalp up to the top of the Sell Climax,
ZH: 多头的初始目标是在抛售高潮的起跌点快速止盈
25:17 - 25:20
EN: and you can see once it got there, the bars started getting small.
ZH: 可以看到，一旦涨到那里，K线的体积就变小了
25:20 - 25:21
EN: We started getting dojis.
ZH: 开始出现十字星
25:21 - 25:24
EN: The bulls are selling out of their longs to take profits.
ZH: 因为多头正在卖出止盈
25:24 - 25:26
EN: They lack conviction.
ZH: 他们（对大反转）没有信心
25:26 - 25:30
EN: The bears see the lack of strength up here and they start to sell again,
ZH: 空头看到了多头的乏力，所以又开始卖出
25:30 - 25:34
EN: betting that these gap bars, while a sign of strong bulls,
ZH: 押注尽管缺口K线是多头强势的信号
25:34 - 25:36
EN: will not be enough to reverse the trend
ZH: 但还不足以直接反转成上涨趋势
25:36 - 25:39
EN: without first testing the low of the bear trend.
ZH: 市场至少需要再次测试前期的低点
25:40 - 25:43
EN: Higher Low Major Trend Reversal, but not really.
ZH: 低点抬高的大反转，但不是很好
25:44 - 25:46
EN: Not enough bars down.
ZH: 这里下跌的K线数量不够
25:46 - 25:47
EN: Maybe enough bars up.
ZH: 上涨的K线数量足够了
25:47 - 25:50
EN: Also, when you get 3 decent bear bars like this,
ZH: 另外，如果出现这样的3根阴线
25:50 - 25:56
EN: the odds are there’ll be sellers above and you’ll get
ZH: 大概率在上方有卖盘，押注至少有第2段下跌， 所以这不是一个很好的买点
25:53 - 25:56
EN: at least a second leg down, and therefore this is not a very good buy.
ZH: 大概率在上方有卖盘，押注至少有第2段下跌， 所以这不是一个很好的买点
25:58 - 26:06
EN: Now this, is it a very good sell? You can argue it’s – I don’t know,
ZH: 它是一个很好的做空入场点吗？ 你可以说——连续上涨了8根K线没有回调， 所以是持续了8根K线的上涨微通道
26:01 - 26:06
EN: is that 8 bars without a pullback? So it’s an 8 bar bull Micro Channel.
ZH: 你可以说——连续上涨了8根K线没有回调， 所以是持续了8根K线的上涨微通道
26:06 - 26:08
EN: First reversal down minor.
ZH: 第一次下跌只是回调
26:08 - 26:11
EN: Usually you get a second leg sideways to up.
ZH: 通常会有第2段上涨，至少是横盘
26:11 - 26:15
EN: And the bulls got their second leg sideways to up – a Lower High
ZH: 这就是多头的第2段上涨，高点降低
26:15 - 26:18
EN: - and then the bears got a second leg down from this climax.
ZH: 然后是空头的第2段下跌
26:20 - 26:24
EN: For the bears, a Double Top with this high and that bar,
ZH: 对空头来说，这是一个双顶——这个高点和那根K线
26:24 - 26:27
EN: a Double Top with this high and that high.
ZH: 这个高点和那个高点形成的双顶
26:27 - 26:28
EN: Reasonable sell.
ZH: 合理的做空机会
26:28 - 26:29
EN: We have a bear bar here.
ZH: 这里有一个阴线
26:30 - 26:35
EN: The market’s evolving from bull bars to weaker bull bars
ZH: 多头的阳线越来越弱，再变成十字星， 现在变成了阴线
26:33 - 26:35
EN: to doji bars and now bear bars.
ZH: 多头的阳线越来越弱，再变成十字星， 现在变成了阴线
26:35 - 26:39
EN: A reasonable swing short, looking for one leg down.
ZH: 做空是合理的，押注下跌波段
26:39 - 26:45
EN: Gap bars usually lead to the final leg of the bear trend
ZH: 缺口K线之后，通常是形成大反转结构之前的最后一段下跌
26:42 - 26:45
EN: before the market attempts to form a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 缺口K线之后，通常是形成大反转结构之前的最后一段下跌
26:46 - 26:49
EN: This could turn out to be a scalp; it’s a reasonable swing.
ZH: 当然，最后有可能只是一笔剥头皮交易， 但为了下跌波段而入场是合理的
26:49 - 26:50
EN: We’re running out of time in the day.
ZH: 离收盘没多少时间了
26:50 - 26:54
EN: We only have about 10 bars left, but sometimes you’ll get pretty good selling,
ZH: 只剩下大约10根K线，但偶尔也会有尾盘跳水，
26:54 - 26:57
EN: and the result could be a swing.
ZH: 可以发展成一笔波段交易
26:57 - 26:58
EN: Here, it does not look like much,
ZH: 这里，尽管看上去没有很多
26:58 - 27:01
EN: but it’s actually 10 points or so in the final hour.
ZH: 但实际上最后1小时跌了将近10个点，
27:01 - 27:04
EN: So that is a swing short.
ZH: 所以是波段交易
Slide 008
Time: 27:10
Bilingual Transcript
27:13 - 27:18
EN: We have a reversal up, and we’re stalling at the top of this Trading Range.
ZH: 反转上涨之后，在这个震荡区间的上沿停滞了
27:19 - 27:21
EN: And you can also call it a Wedge – one, two, three
ZH: 可以把它看作是楔形——1，2，3
27:21 - 27:25
EN: - or a Double Top and a bull breakout that might fail.
ZH: ——或者这里是双顶，向上的突破失败
27:25 - 27:28
EN: This is probably a Final Flag top.
ZH: 这个很有可能是末端牛旗
27:30 - 27:34
EN: We have a reversal up and then a Trading Range and then a breakout.
ZH: 反转上涨，震荡区间，然后突破
27:34 - 27:37
EN: Big tails, big tails, testing a prior high.
ZH: 长上影线，长上影线，测试了前期的高点
27:37 - 27:40
EN: Probably going to be a Trading Range.
ZH: 大概率会变成震荡区间
27:40 - 27:45
EN: 60% chance of the end of the rally for at least 10 or more bars,
ZH: 60%的概率，上涨结束，会有至少10根K线的下跌
27:45 - 27:47
EN: and possibly a reversal down.
ZH: 甚至变成下降趋势
27:47 - 27:50
EN: Only 40% chance this is going to lead to a Measured Move up.
ZH: 只有40%的概率会继续上涨到MM目标位
27:52 - 27:56
EN: This close is at or above the top of this Tight Trading Range
ZH: 它的收盘价高于这个窄震荡区间的最高点，
27:56 - 27:59
EN: and at or above the top of the past 30 bars or so,
ZH: 高于过去30根K线的高点
27:59 - 28:02
EN: and then we have a bull bar follow-through.
ZH: 后面的跟随是阳线
28:02 - 28:09
EN: However, the big tails on top of both make it likely
ZH: 然而，它们的上影线很长， 使得横盘或下跌10根K线变得更有可能
28:05 - 28:09
EN: that we’re going to go sideways to down for at least 10 bars.
ZH: 然而，它们的上影线很长， 使得横盘或下跌10根K线变得更有可能
28:09 - 28:14
EN: It’s still a possible bull breakout and follow-through and Measuring Gap.
ZH: 多头突破，有跟随，所以仍然有测量型缺口的可能性
28:14 - 28:20
EN: 40% chance we get the Measured Move up, 60% chance we go sideways or down.
ZH: 40%的概率会涨到MM目标位，60%的概率会横盘或下跌
28:23 - 28:26
EN: Some bears will sell the close of that follow-through bar
ZH: 一些空头会在跟随K线的收盘卖出
28:27 - 28:32
EN: - both bars with big tails, possible Final Flag, test of the top of the range.
ZH: 两根K线的上影线都很长，左边是潜在的末端牛旗，测试区间顶部
28:32 - 28:33
EN: A reasonable sell.
ZH: 做空是合理的
28:36 - 28:40
EN: However, if they did take the sell and the market tried to reverse up here
ZH: 然而，在卖出做空之后，市场恢复上涨，
28:40 - 28:43
EN: and now it’s trying to reverse up a second time,
ZH: 这里是第2次恢复上涨
28:43 - 28:46
EN: the bears will exit, taking their loss because they’re afraid
ZH: 空头会离场，接受亏损，
28:46 - 28:50
EN: that instead of an Exhaustion Gap, this could be a Measuring Gap.
ZH: 因为他们担心这不是一个竭尽型缺口，而是测量型缺口
28:50 - 28:53
EN: Here’s an attempt by the bears to reverse, and look at the low
ZH: 这里有一点下跌，但是看这个低点
28:53 - 28:55
EN: of this bar and the high of all of these bars.
ZH: 和之前这些K线的高点
28:55 - 28:59
EN: This is only a test of the breakout point, not a reversal,
ZH: 这是突破后的回测，而不是反转
28:59 - 29:01
EN: and it’s not closing the gap.
ZH: 缺口没有被回补
29:01 - 29:05
EN: In fact, it’s creating a gap between this low and that high.
ZH: 事实上，这个低点和那个高点之间留下了一个缺口
29:05 - 29:12
EN: That increases the chances that this gap between that low
ZH: 这增加了那个缺口是测量型缺口、 市场继续上涨到MM目标位的概率
29:08 - 29:12
EN: and this high will be a Measuring Gap and that we’ll get a Measured Move up.
ZH: 这增加了那个缺口是测量型缺口、 市场继续上涨到MM目标位的概率
29:12 - 29:15
EN: Minimum would be a Measured Move based upon the height of this Trading Range,
ZH: 最低目标是把这个震荡区间的高度往上翻一倍
29:15 - 29:19
EN: but possibly a Measured Move based upon the height of this entire rally,
ZH: 也有可能是整段上涨幅度翻一倍
29:19 - 29:23
EN: which could be a bear leg in a Trading Range day or a large bear flag.
ZH: ——本来空头认为它只是震荡区间中的一段上涨， 或者是持续时间较长的熊旗
29:23 - 29:28
EN: Bear trend with a deep pullback, we might continue all the way down.
ZH: （空头认为）下降趋势，大幅反弹，然后恢复下跌
29:32 - 29:34
EN: The bulls know the bears failed.
ZH: 多头知道空头失败了
29:34 - 29:36
EN: The bulls know the tails up here are bad,
ZH: 多头知道这里的上影线不好
29:36 - 29:40
EN: but they know a lot of bears will get out above this bar (a High 1).
ZH: 但他们知道，很多空头会在这根K线上方离场（高1）
29:40 - 29:43
EN: And now we have a bull inside bar after this bar.
ZH: 这根阳线之后是一根多头孕线
29:43 - 29:45
EN: It’s a type of High 2.
ZH: （这根孕线的上方）可以算作是高2 （注：孕线是一种暂停、回调）
29:45 - 29:47
EN: What this is, is possibly a bull flag,
ZH: 这可能是一个牛旗
29:47 - 29:52
EN: and then this little doji bar is the breakout.
ZH: 这个十字星是突破，这根孕线是回调
29:50 - 29:52
EN: This inside bar is the pullback.
ZH: 这个十字星是突破，这根孕线是回调
29:52 - 29:57
EN: So it’s a small bull trend, bull flag, breakout, and pullback.
ZH: 所以总体是小上涨趋势，牛旗，突破牛旗，回调
29:57 - 30:00
EN: The bears will give up and the bulls will buy,
ZH: 空头会放弃，多头会买入
30:00 - 30:05
EN: betting that this low is testing that high and that we have an open gap
ZH: 押注这只是突破之后的回测，缺口仍然保持开放
30:05 - 30:06
EN: and that we’re going up for a Measured Move.
ZH: 所以押注市场会涨到MM目标位
30:09 - 30:10
EN: And that’s what ended up happening.
ZH: 最后确实到达了
30:10 - 30:13
EN: We got a Measured Move up based upon the entire rally.
ZH: 涨到了基于整段上涨高度的MM目标位
30:13 - 30:17
EN: Even though the breakout has a big tail, the follow-through has a big tail,
ZH: 尽管突破的这根阳线有长上影线，跟随K线也是，
30:17 - 30:19
EN: and the follow-through after that is not all that good,
ZH: 再后面的跟随也不是很好
30:19 - 30:22
EN: you’ve got to look at the reversal attempt by the bears.
ZH: 但你也必须观察空头的反转力度
30:22 - 30:26
EN: A tail on the bottom and did not get below the breakout point.
ZH: 这根下影线甚至没有跌破前期的高点
30:26 - 30:28
EN: And the bears tried again a second time.
ZH: 这里是空头的第2次尝试
30:28 - 30:31
EN: Tail on the bottom, did not get below the breakout point.
ZH: 底部有下影线，没有跌破突破点 （注：没有补掉缺口）
30:31 - 30:35
EN: The bears are going to buy back their shorts, and the bulls are now confident
ZH: 空头不得不买入回补，所以多头变得更有信心
30:35 - 30:41
EN: that this selloff attempt is simply a test of the breakout,
ZH: 他们知道这里的下跌只是突破之后的回测， 市场至少还会再上涨一些
30:38 - 30:41
EN: it’s a breakout test, and that we’re probably going at least a little higher.
ZH: 他们知道这里的下跌只是突破之后的回测， 市场至少还会再上涨一些
30:41 - 30:43
EN: We went a lot higher.
ZH: 最后上涨了很多
Slide 009
Time: 30:45
Bilingual Transcript
30:53 - 30:58
EN: Whenever the market has a credible top but it fails
ZH: 如果市场构建了一个可靠的顶部结构， 但反转失败，并继续上涨的话
30:57 - 31:04
EN: and the market starts to go up, the swing stop for the bulls
ZH: 如果市场构建了一个可靠的顶部结构， 但反转失败，并继续上涨的话 多头的止损在上涨趋势的起涨点下方， 或者在突破K线的起涨点下方
31:00 - 31:04
EN: is below the bottom of the bull swing or below the bottom of the breakout.
ZH: 多头的止损在上涨趋势的起涨点下方， 或者在突破K线的起涨点下方
31:05 - 31:10
EN: So if you’re buying here or here, your stop theoretically is here or here.
ZH: 所以如果你在这里或这里买入， 你的初始止损应该放在这里或这里
31:10 - 31:14
EN: However, since this is a breakout test and a Micro Double Bottom,
ZH: 然而，由于这是突破回测、小双底
31:14 - 31:21
EN: and the bulls have a gap that’s staying open, it’s also reasonable
ZH: 而且多头的缺口保持开放， 所以用窄止损——放在这根回调K线的下方，也是合理的
31:17 - 31:21
EN: to use a very tight stop right below the low of this breakout test bar.
ZH: 而且多头的缺口保持开放， 所以用窄止损——放在这根回调K线的下方，也是合理的
31:21 - 31:29
EN: This is an attempt by the bears to make this be an Exhaustion Gap
ZH: 空头尝试让它变成上涨趋势末尾的竭尽型缺口， 但他们没能成功地把缺口补掉
31:25 - 31:29
EN: and the end of a bull trend, and they could not close the gap.
ZH: 空头尝试让它变成上涨趋势末尾的竭尽型缺口， 但他们没能成功地把缺口补掉
31:29 - 31:32
EN: They could not get below the breakout point, and that’s important for the bulls.
ZH: 和突破点之间没有重合，这对多头而言非常重要
31:32 - 31:34
EN: And now the market’s resuming up,
ZH: 现在市场恢复上涨
31:35 - 31:39
EN: the bulls expect that it’ll be able to hold above this low.
ZH: 多头期望它能够保持在这个低点上方
31:39 - 31:42
EN: And if it falls below this low, they’ll change their mind.
ZH: 如果跌破这个低点，多头就会改变主意
31:42 - 31:46
EN: They’ll stop thinking about this as a possible Measuring Gap,
ZH: （既然缺口被补掉）它就不再是一个测量型缺口
31:46 - 31:47
EN: and they’ll think that maybe we’re in a Trading Range.
ZH: 那么市场很可能处于震荡区间
31:47 - 31:50
EN: Maybe we’ll test down to the Buy Climax low,
ZH: 可能会下跌回测抢购高潮的起涨点
31:50 - 31:52
EN: and maybe all the way down to the low of the day.
ZH: 甚至一路跌到今天前期的最低点
31:53 - 31:56
EN: And therefore, some bulls will use the tighter stop.
ZH: 因此，一些多头会使用窄止损
31:59 - 32:02
EN: Reasonable, below the Buy Climax, below the low of the day.
ZH: 保护性止损放在这个低点，或者最低点下方，都是合理的
32:07 - 32:13
EN: Because once it starts to reverse up there, the probability is high
ZH: 一旦恢复上涨，很大的概率会涨到某个MM目标位
32:11 - 32:13
EN: that traders will make at least a Measured Move up,
ZH: 一旦恢复上涨，很大的概率会涨到某个MM目标位
32:13 - 32:18
EN: it’s reasonable to take profits at one times Actual Risk.
ZH: 在一倍实际风险的地方止盈是合理的
32:18 - 32:19
EN: The Actual Risk is small.
ZH: 这里的实际风险很小
32:19 - 32:23
EN: For example, if you bought above the high of this bar, by the close of this bar
ZH: 例如，如果你在这根K线的高点上方买入， 等到它收盘的时候
32:23 - 32:26
EN: you know that your Actual Risk is small, maybe a point or so.
ZH: 你已经知道实际风险很小，只有一个点左右
32:26 - 32:31
EN: It’s from just above the high of this bar
ZH: 就是从你的入场点，到那根K线的低点下方而已
32:28 - 32:31
EN: where you entered to just below the low of that bar.
ZH: 就是从你的入场点，到那根K线的低点下方而已
32:31 - 32:35
EN: That’s how much you actually had to risk to make all this money.
ZH: 这是你在这笔交易中实际上所承担的风险
32:36 - 32:42
EN: And when the Actual Risk is small, going for a reward
ZH: 如果实际风险很小，那么只追求一倍实际风险的利润， 通常不是一个好的选择
32:39 - 32:42
EN: equal to one times Actual Risk, usually not good.
ZH: 如果实际风险很小，那么只追求一倍实际风险的利润， 通常不是一个好的选择
32:42 - 32:48
EN: You should go for a bigger reward based upon
ZH: 你应该追求更大的利润，比如按照MM目标位，或者其它的阻力
32:45 - 32:48
EN: some other Measured Move target or some other resistance.
ZH: 你应该追求更大的利润，比如按照MM目标位，或者其它的阻力
32:48 - 32:52
EN: However, when you have a high probability buy – and at this point,
ZH: 然而，当一笔交易的胜率很高——在这个时候，
32:52 - 32:54
EN: the probability is high that you’re going to make money,
ZH: 买入做多能赚到钱的概率很高
32:54 - 32:59
EN: at least as much as you’re risking – you have a positive Trader’s Equation,
ZH: 利润至少等于风险——那么数学期望就是正的
32:59 - 33:03
EN: and it’s okay to take profit at one times your Actual Risk.
ZH: 在1倍实际风险止盈是可以接受的
33:03 - 33:07
EN: But just because it’s okay, does not mean it’s sensible.
ZH: 可接受，不代表是最明智的选择
33:07 - 33:12
EN: Here, we’re probably going up higher, much more than just one times Actual Risk,
ZH: 市场很可能会继续上涨很多，远超1倍实际风险
33:12 - 33:16
EN: and it’s better to hold on and see what happens.
ZH: 所以最好继续持有，看看会发生什么
33:16 - 33:23
EN: And you can see what happened is the market started
ZH: 可以看到接下来的行情，市场进入了上涨微通道 ——连续上涨5根，10根K线，没有回调
33:19 - 33:23
EN: to enter a bull Micro Channel – 5 bars, 10 bars without a pullback
ZH: 可以看到接下来的行情，市场进入了上涨微通道 ——连续上涨5根，10根K线，没有回调
33:23 - 33:26
EN: - and therefore the first reversal down probably will be minor
ZH: 所以第一次下跌只是小反转
33:26 - 33:28
EN: and we’re probably going higher still.
ZH: 仍然会继续上涨
33:28 - 33:33
EN: So a bull buying here would continue to hold even here,
ZH: 所以在这里买入的多头，即使涨到了这里，也仍然会继续持有
33:33 - 33:35
EN: betting that we’re going up at least a little bit higher.
ZH: 押注至少还会再上涨一些
33:38 - 33:40
EN: For example, Measured Move.
ZH: 比如，涨到MM目标位
33:40 - 33:42
EN: This was an attempt at a top.
ZH: 市场在这里尝试筑顶
33:42 - 33:46
EN: We broke above it, we pulled back, and we resumed up.
ZH: 向上突破、回测、然后继续上涨
33:46 - 33:49
EN: Reasonable to expect a Measured Move up.
ZH: MM目标位是合理的预期
33:49 - 33:52
EN: This is a logical area to take profits, and you can see that’s what happened.
ZH: 在这里止盈符合数学逻辑，可以看到这里的价格行为——
33:52 - 33:57
EN: The bulls stopped buying, bears started selling,
ZH: 多头停止买入，空头卖出做空，至少想要做一笔剥头皮交易
33:55 - 33:57
EN: expecting to make at least a scalp.
ZH: 多头停止买入，空头卖出做空，至少想要做一笔剥头皮交易
33:59 - 34:04
EN: Also, a lot of times you get a Measured Move up
ZH: 另外，还有基于突破高度的MM目标位，就在这里
34:01 - 34:04
EN: based upon the height of the breakout, which is right there.
ZH: 另外，还有基于突破高度的MM目标位，就在这里
34:04 - 34:06
EN: You can see some profit-taking there.
ZH: 可以看到，有一些多头在卖出止盈
34:10 - 34:19
EN: Two reasonable Measured Move targets; therefore, you’d expect some profit-taking
ZH: 两个合理的MM目标位，所以你知道会有多头止盈， 尤其是这里的抢购高潮之后
34:15 - 34:19
EN: from the bulls, especially after all of this climactic buying.
ZH: 两个合理的MM目标位，所以你知道会有多头止盈， 尤其是这里的抢购高潮之后
34:19 - 34:23
EN: The stop is now far away, and the bulls don’t want to risk that much.
ZH: 现在止损离得很远，多头不想承担这么大的风险
34:23 - 34:26
EN: One way to reduce risk is to reduce their position size.
ZH: 降低风险的一种方法就是减仓
Slide 010
Time: 34:29
Bilingual Transcript
34:31 - 34:41
EN: Whenever the market’s in a Trading Range, it often accelerates strongly
ZH: 如果市场处于震荡区间，在第1段上涨之后， 通常会开始加速上涨，但第2段上涨没有跟随，然后开始反转下跌
34:35 - 34:41
EN: after a first leg up, and then that second leg up has no follow-through
ZH: 如果市场处于震荡区间，在第1段上涨之后， 通常会开始加速上涨，但第2段上涨没有跟随，然后开始反转下跌
34:39 - 34:41
EN: and in fact leads to a reversal.
ZH: 如果市场处于震荡区间，在第1段上涨之后， 通常会开始加速上涨，但第2段上涨没有跟随，然后开始反转下跌
34:41 - 34:43
EN: That’s a 2nd Leg Trap.
ZH: 那就是一个第2段陷阱
34:48 - 34:51
EN: Trading Ranges often have two-legged patterns.
ZH: 震荡区间里经常会有这种两段式的行情
34:51 - 34:55
EN: We have a weak rally, and now it broke into a very strong rally.
ZH: 先是缓慢上涨，然后突然加速、变得很强
34:55 - 34:58
EN: So we could call this a Wedge rally.
ZH: 可以把第1段看作是楔形上涨
34:58 - 35:03
EN: You can call it a weak rally, and now the market’s
ZH: 可以说它是弱上涨趋势， 而现在市场进入了强上涨趋势
35:01 - 35:03
EN: trying to transition into a strong bull trend.
ZH: 可以说它是弱上涨趋势， 而现在市场进入了强上涨趋势
35:04 - 35:07
EN: However, because we’re still below the prior highs
ZH: 然而，因为目前仍然低于前期的高点
35:07 - 35:12
EN: - 50, 60, 100 bars to the left – it might be a bull leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: ——过去50、60、甚至100根K线—— 所以它可能只是震荡区间中的一段上涨
35:12 - 35:19
EN: And whenever you get exceptional strength on a possible second leg up
ZH: 当区间内出现异常强势的第2段上涨时， 趋势很可能即将衰竭
35:16 - 35:19
EN: in a Trading Range, it could be an exhaustive move.
ZH: 当区间内出现异常强势的第2段上涨时， 趋势很可能即将衰竭
35:19 - 35:20
EN: A 2nd Leg Trap.
ZH: 也就是第2段陷阱
35:20 - 35:27
EN: You want to see what the follow-through is, and a lot of the bears will sell
ZH: 需要观察跟随怎么样，很多空头会在阴线下方卖出做空， 同时多头会在这里离场
35:24 - 35:27
EN: below the bear bar, and a lot of the bulls will get out.
ZH: 需要观察跟随怎么样，很多空头会在阴线下方卖出做空， 同时多头会在这里离场
35:28 - 35:31
EN: Other traders will wait to see if we get 2, 3, or 4 bear bars,
ZH: 一些交易者会等待，看看是否会有连续2、3、4根阴线
35:31 - 35:35
EN: and then they’ll start to sell closes or above the high of the prior bar.
ZH: 然后他们会在阴线的收盘卖出， 或者在前一根K线的高点上方挂限价卖单
35:39 - 35:43
EN: Higher probability to sell after you’ve seen 3 or 4 decent bear bars closing
ZH: 在看到3、4根阴线收在最低之后再入场做空，有更高的胜率
35:43 - 35:47
EN: on their lows – but taking the later sell, you get higher probability.
ZH: 晚一点入场，胜率会更高
35:47 - 35:50
EN: You pay for it with a stop that’s further away.
ZH: 代价是止损变得更远
35:50 - 35:52
EN: It’s reasonable to take the early sell.
ZH: 在反转早期入场也是合理的
35:52 - 35:54
EN: Here we have an ii and a bear bar.
ZH: 这里有一个ii结构，和一根阴线
35:54 - 35:57
EN: Or it’s also reasonable to take the later sell.
ZH: 看到明确的反转再入场，也是合理的
35:57 - 36:01
EN: This sell has smaller risk, more probability.
ZH: 这里做空，风险更小，但胜率不高
36:01 - 36:04
EN: This sell has greater risk and higher probability.
ZH: 这里做空，风险更大，胜率也更大
36:04 - 36:05
EN: Both are reasonable.
ZH: 两者都是合理的
36:13 - 36:15
EN: Big down, big up, big confusion.
ZH: 大跌，大涨，造成大的困惑
36:16 - 36:17
EN: Probable Trading Range.
ZH: 这是震荡区间的特征
36:17 - 36:23
EN: And when you have a probable Trading Range, 80% of breakout attempts fail.
ZH: 当你看到潜在的震荡区间时，80%突破的尝试都会失败
36:23 - 36:26
EN: Therefore, you should not be looking to buy at the low of this bar,
ZH: 因此，你不应该在这根K线的低点买入
36:26 - 36:29
EN: betting that we’re going to get a second leg up.
ZH: 不该押注会有第2段上涨
36:29 - 36:32
EN: This little bull bar was probably the second leg up.
ZH: 这根小阳线可能就是第2段上涨的全部了
36:32 - 36:35
EN: You had Buy The Close bulls who bought this close, they bought this close,
ZH: 有一些买收盘的多头，他们在这根K线的收盘买入
36:35 - 36:40
EN: and then they saw this bear bar and they said, “Uh oh.
ZH: 然后他们看到了这根阴线，他们说： “我靠，坏了，太糟糕了。
36:38 - 36:40
EN: That’s bad.
ZH: 然后他们看到了这根阴线，他们说： “我靠，坏了，太糟糕了。
36:38 - 36:40
EN: That’s bad, that’s disappointing.
ZH: 然后他们看到了这根阴线，他们说： “我靠，坏了，太糟糕了。
36:41 - 36:45
EN: Maybe I should just get out and look to see
ZH: 我最好先赶紧离场，观察几根K线再说”
36:43 - 36:45
EN: what happens over the next several bars.”
ZH: 我最好先赶紧离场，观察几根K线再说”
36:45 - 36:48
EN: The bulls who bought this close, disappointed by this bar,
ZH: 在这个收盘买入的多头，对跟随感到失望
36:48 - 36:50
EN: a lot of them placed limit orders to get out breakeven.
ZH: 很多人会在入场价挂限价卖单，想要打平离场
36:50 - 36:51
EN: And look at this bar.
ZH: 仔细看这根K线
36:51 - 36:56
EN: It got up to that close and not above it, and the bulls who tried to sell out
ZH: 它涨到了那个收盘价，但没有超过它 （注：所以限价卖单无法确保成交）
36:56 - 36:59
EN: of their longs at their original entry price are now trapped,
ZH: 尝试离场的多头现在被套牢了
36:59 - 37:01
EN: and they’ll start to sell on a reversal down.
ZH: 他们会在反转下跌时卖出离场
37:01 - 37:05
EN: And this is a pair of Give-up Bars, the bulls giving up.
ZH: 这两根是放弃K线，多头放弃了
37:05 - 37:09
EN: The bears understand that as well, and they’re going to sell.
ZH: 空头也明白这一点，所以他们继续卖空
37:09 - 37:13
EN: Once they see that the bulls are trapped
ZH: 一旦他们看到多头被套牢—— 多头无法在这个收盘价打平离场
37:11 - 37:13
EN: - they could not get out at the high of this bar
ZH: 一旦他们看到多头被套牢—— 多头无法在这个收盘价打平离场
37:13 - 37:17
EN: - they know the bulls will get out lower, and therefore the bears sell as well.
ZH: 那么就只能在更低的价格卖出止损，所以空头也会卖出
37:19 - 37:22
EN: If you’re a bull and you’re seeing this exceptionally strong breakout
ZH: 如果你是多头，你看到市场正在非常强势地突破
37:22 - 37:27
EN: and you did not buy lower, and you’re hoping to buy, I would not be buying
ZH: 之前你没有买入，现在你想要追涨——我不会挂限价买单
37:26 - 37:33
EN: with a limit order with that bad follow-through and then seeing that the high
ZH: 之前你没有买入，现在你想要追涨——我不会挂限价买单 因为跟随很糟糕，而且这根K线的高点没有超过那个最高的收盘价
37:30 - 37:33
EN: of this bar could not get above the close of that bar,
ZH: 因为跟随很糟糕，而且这根K线的高点没有超过那个最高的收盘价
37:33 - 37:36
EN: and that this high is below the top of all the bars to the left.
ZH: 而且这个高点也没有突破左边的那些K线
37:37 - 37:41
EN: Too much risk that it’s a 2nd Leg Trap in what will become a big Trading Range.
ZH: 最多的风险非常大，因为这很可能是震荡区间中的第2段陷阱
37:48 - 37:55
EN: Strong enough breakout, probably buyers below and the best the bears
ZH: 突破足够强势，所以在下方会有买盘， 震荡区间是空头能得到的最好的结果
37:52 - 37:55
EN: get will be a Trading Range instead of a bear trend.
ZH: 突破足够强势，所以在下方会有买盘， 震荡区间是空头能得到的最好的结果
37:56 - 38:00
EN: But I would wait to buy with a stop after I see the market stabilize.
ZH: 但我会等下跌停止以后，再用突破买单入场 （注：而不是在下跌过程中挂限价买单）
38:00 - 38:05
EN: And here, it never stabilized until all the way down
ZH: 这里，市场从未止跌，一路下跌到抢购高潮的起涨点
38:03 - 38:05
EN: just below the bottom of the Buy Climax.
ZH: 这里，市场从未止跌，一路下跌到抢购高潮的起涨点
38:07 - 38:10
EN: The bears understand what’s going on as well,
ZH: 空头知道这是第2段陷阱
38:10 - 38:12
EN: and a lot of them will take a swing short.
ZH: 所以很多人卖出，想要做波段交易
38:12 - 38:14
EN: Here, it would be a swing short.
ZH: 这确实是一个波段的做空机会
38:14 - 38:16
EN: It’s 15 points down to this low.
ZH: 目标利润有15个点
38:16 - 38:21
EN: So a lot of them will sell, taking a chance
ZH: 所以很多空头卖出做空，押注在抢购高潮之后会有两段下跌
38:18 - 38:21
EN: that we’ll get two legs down after the Buy Climax.
ZH: 所以很多空头卖出做空，押注在抢购高潮之后会有两段下跌
38:21 - 38:25
EN: Also, because it’s a Trading Range, you’d expect a lot of two-legged moves.
ZH: 另外，因为它是震荡区间，所以会有很多两段式的行情
38:25 - 38:29
EN: Bear breakout, pullback, two – so one, pullback, two.
ZH: 空头突破，反弹，第二段——所以是1，反弹，2
38:29 - 38:33
EN: One, it tried to be one, tried to be one, tried to be one, tried to be one,
ZH: 1，仍然属于第1段，第1段，第1段，第1段
38:33 - 38:36
EN: and now we’re accelerating, changing the character of the market.
ZH: 现在开始加速上涨，价格行为发生了变化
38:36 - 38:39
EN: So one here is a Wedge.
ZH: 所以第1段是楔形上涨
38:39 - 38:43
EN: It was a Wedge here, now it’s a bigger Wedge, and then two is this breakout.
ZH: 这里是一个楔形，现在是一个更大的楔形， 第二段是这里的加速突破
38:43 - 38:46
EN: And then on the way down – one, pullback, two.
ZH: 然后反转下跌——1，反弹，2
38:49 - 38:53
EN: If you take this short, your stop was either above the top of the ii
ZH: 如果你在这里卖出做空，你的止损要么放在ii的高点上方
38:53 - 38:57
EN: - especially since there’s a good bear bar closing below its midpoint
ZH: ——尤其因为它是很好的阴线，收在一半以下
38:57 - 38:59
EN: - or above the top of the Buy Climax.
ZH: 或者把止损发放在抢购高潮的最高点上方
38:59 - 39:03
EN: And if you get stopped out and it reverses again,
ZH: 如果你被止损了，然后市场再次反转下跌
39:03 - 39:05
EN: you’d sell the second entry as well.
ZH: 你要在第2做空入场点再次卖出
39:08 - 39:12
EN: Reasonable to take partial profits at the bottom of the Buy Climax,
ZH: 在抢购高潮的起涨点止盈一部分是合理的
39:12 - 39:14
EN: and you can see that’s what happened.
ZH: 可以看到在这里发生了什么
39:14 - 39:22
EN: A lot of the bears who shorted are betting that it’s big up, big down,
ZH: 很多做空的空头在押注这是大涨、大跌、大的困惑——会变成震荡区间
39:18 - 39:22
EN: big confusion and probably going to be a Trading Range,
ZH: 很多做空的空头在押注这是大涨、大跌、大的困惑——会变成震荡区间
39:22 - 39:24
EN: and therefore they want to buy back their shorts low.
ZH: 所以他们想要在低位买入止盈
39:24 - 39:26
EN: They want to buy low.
ZH: 交易者想要逢低买入
39:26 - 39:33
EN: And the bulls know that as well, and the bulls are looking to buy
ZH: 多头也知道这一点，所以多头准备在抢购高潮的起涨点附近买入， 等待反转上涨的信号
39:29 - 39:33
EN: in the area of the bottom of the Buy Climax if you get some kind of reversal.
ZH: 多头也知道这一点，所以多头准备在抢购高潮的起涨点附近买入， 等待反转上涨的信号
39:33 - 39:36
EN: We have a Micro Double Bottom, a bull bar closing on its high
ZH: 有一个小双底，阳线收盘在最高
39:36 - 39:39
EN: - reasonable for the bulls to buy for at least a scalp.
ZH: ——对多头而言至少是一个合理的剥头皮机会
Slide 011
Time: 39:43
Bilingual Transcript
39:46 - 39:47
EN: Look at this.
ZH: 看这个
39:47 - 39:50
EN: We have a bull trend and we entered a Trading Range for about 15 bars,
ZH: 上涨趋势，然后震荡了大约15根K线
39:50 - 39:53
EN: and now the bull trend is trying to resume.
ZH: 现在上涨趋势尝试恢复
39:53 - 39:55
EN: It’s a bull Micro Channel, good for the bulls,
ZH: 这是一个上涨微通道，对多头有利
39:55 - 39:58
EN: but where are the consecutive big bull trend bars?
ZH: 但是连续的大阳线在哪里？
39:58 - 40:03
EN: Not present, and therefore this is a fairly weak rally.
ZH: 不存在，因此这是非常弱的上涨趋势
40:03 - 40:07
EN: Small bars, a lot of overlap, coming out of a Tight Trading Range,
ZH: 小K线，很多重叠，刚刚离开这个窄震荡区间
40:07 - 40:11
EN: failing to break strongly above a significant prior high.
ZH: 还没有能突破前期重要的高点
40:15 - 40:21
EN: Whenever you get a weak rally, you have to assume it’s probably
ZH: 每当你看到一个弱上涨趋势， 你就必须假设它只是未来震荡区间中的一段上涨
40:19 - 40:21
EN: going to be a bull leg in what will become a Trading Range
ZH: 每当你看到一个弱上涨趋势， 你就必须假设它只是未来震荡区间中的一段上涨
40:22 - 40:24
EN: instead of the start of a strong bull trend.
ZH: 而不是一个强上涨趋势的开始
40:29 - 40:31
EN: And if it’s a bull leg in a Trading Range,
ZH: 如果它确实只是震荡区间中的上涨波段
40:31 - 40:34
EN: a lot of traders will sell a failed breakout and a reversal down.
ZH: 那么很多交易者会在突破失败、以及反转下跌时卖出
40:34 - 40:38
EN: This was a test of yesterday’s close and yesterday’s high,
ZH: 这是对昨天收盘价和最高点的测试
40:38 - 40:42
EN: and we have a little bigger bar here, so it’s a Buy Climax,
ZH: 这里有一根稍大的阳线，所以是抢购高潮
40:42 - 40:44
EN: trying to break above the top of the channel,
ZH: 尝试加速突破通道的上沿
40:44 - 40:45
EN: and now we’re getting a reversal down.
ZH: 然后开始反转下跌
40:45 - 40:50
EN: 2 bar reversal, up and then reversing down, closing on its low.
ZH: 双K反转——上涨，然后下跌，收在最低
40:50 - 40:51
EN: Might test the bottom of the range.
ZH: 可能会测试区间的底部
40:51 - 40:54
EN: Okay to sell for a scalp down to the bottom of the range.
ZH: 在这里做空，到底部快速止盈，是可以的
40:56 - 41:00
EN: This is also a Trading Range late in a bull trend,
ZH: 这也是上涨趋势后期的震荡区间
41:00 - 41:03
EN: and therefore potentially a final bull flag.
ZH: 所以是潜在的末端牛旗
41:04 - 41:09
EN: And sometimes a final bull flag has a breakout
ZH: 有时会向上突破末端牛旗，但无法超过前期的重要高点
41:07 - 41:09
EN: that fails to get above the prior high.
ZH: 有时会向上突破末端牛旗，但无法超过前期的重要高点
41:10 - 41:12
EN: Here, it looks like we got right around to the prior high,
ZH: 这里，看起来刚好到达前高
41:12 - 41:15
EN: right around to yesterday’s close, and sometimes that’s all
ZH: 刚好碰到昨天的收盘价，
41:15 - 41:20
EN: that the bulls get in terms of trend resumption before the breakout fails.
ZH: 有时这就是在反转下跌之前，多头能得到的全部涨幅了
41:21 - 41:24
EN: Bull flag late in a bull trend, Tight Trading Range,
ZH: 上涨趋势后期的牛旗——窄震荡区间
41:25 - 41:28
EN: possible magnet and possible Final Flag.
ZH: 潜在的磁铁，潜在的末端牛旗
41:28 - 41:31
EN: So if we get a breakout, especially one that’s not very strong,
ZH: 如果向上突破，而且突破还不是很强势
41:31 - 41:36
EN: even though it’s climactic, it’s probably not going to go very far.
ZH: 尽管它是高潮，但不会再上涨多少了
41:40 - 41:45
EN: Reversal down.
ZH: 在持续了8~10根K线的上涨微通道之后，反转下跌
41:41 - 41:45
EN: It’s after maybe an 8 or 10 bar bull Micro Channel.
ZH: 在持续了8~10根K线的上涨微通道之后，反转下跌
41:45 - 41:49
EN: Probably the reversal down is not going to be all that dramatic either.
ZH: 大概率也不会有很大的跌幅
41:49 - 41:52
EN: Not much energy going up, probably not much energy here.
ZH: 上涨时没有什么动能，下跌的时候也没有
41:52 - 41:56
EN: Also not much energy for the first couple of hours today.
ZH: 今天开盘之后的几个小时都没有什么波动
41:56 - 41:59
EN: So just as this was a bull leg in a Trading Range,
ZH: 正如它是震荡区间中的上涨波段
41:59 - 42:04
EN: probably the reversal down will be a bear leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 这也会是震荡区间中的下跌波段
42:04 - 42:09
EN: It’s a Double Top Major Trend Reversal – bull trend, bear breakout,
ZH: 这是一个双顶大反转的结构——上涨趋势，跌破趋势线
42:09 - 42:12
EN: Double Top, maybe a slightly Higher High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 双顶，好像是高点略微抬高的双顶大反转
42:12 - 42:17
EN: But with an 8 or 10 bar bull Micro Channel, a bull body for the sell signal bar
ZH: 但是左边是持续了8~10根K线的上涨微通道， 做空信号K又是阳线
42:17 - 42:22
EN: – probably we’ll have to go sideways before the bears can get it to go down.
ZH: 大概率要先横盘，然后才会下跌
42:22 - 42:26
EN: And even though it went down for a second leg, it never went down very strongly.
ZH: 尽管有两段下跌，但完全不怎么强势
Slide 012
Time: 42:30
Bilingual Transcript
42:31 - 42:35
EN: Had you sold here, traders will look for a scalp.
ZH: 如果在这里卖出做空，交易者做的是剥头皮交易
42:35 - 42:45
EN: Even though it’s a possible Higher High
ZH: 尽管这是潜在的高点抬高的双顶大反转结构， 而且信号K线是大阴线收在最低，但是看跟随
42:38 - 42:45
EN: or a Double Top Major Trend Reversal with a decent sell signal bar
ZH: 尽管这是潜在的高点抬高的双顶大反转结构， 而且信号K线是大阴线收在最低，但是看跟随
42:42 - 42:45
EN: and a decent entry bar, look at the follow-through.
ZH: 尽管这是潜在的高点抬高的双顶大反转结构， 而且信号K线是大阴线收在最低，但是看跟随
42:45 - 42:48
EN: Doji, big tail and small body.
ZH: 十字星，长上影线（大幅反弹），小阴线
42:48 - 42:50
EN: Not a strong breakout below the range.
ZH: 没有强势跌破区间的底部
42:51 - 42:55
EN: A lot of the bears will decide
ZH: 所以很多空头判断，这大概率只是震荡区间中的下跌波段
42:53 - 42:55
EN: that this is probably a bear leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 所以很多空头判断，这大概率只是震荡区间中的下跌波段
42:55 - 42:58
EN: Rather than swing trading hoping for a trend reversal,
ZH: 所以不适合做波段交易、押注大反转
42:58 - 43:01
EN: it’s more likely the market’s going to go sideways,
ZH: 看起来更像是会横盘
43:01 - 43:02
EN: and therefore they’re scalping.
ZH: 所以他们只是做剥头皮交易
43:02 - 43:05
EN: They’re looking to take profits around the bottom of the range,
ZH: 他们打算在区间底部附近止盈
43:05 - 43:09
EN: and certainly on the reversal up – either above this bar, High 2
ZH: 如果反转上涨，肯定要离场——要么在这根K线上方，它是高2
43:09 - 43:16
EN: - High 1 right here, and then High 2, Double Bottom here – or above this bar.
ZH: ——这里是高1，然后这里是高2，双低——或者在这根K线上方离场
43:19 - 43:21
EN: This is a Double Top.
ZH: 这是一个双顶
43:21 - 43:24
EN: I can’t tell; might be a slightly Higher High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 看不太清楚，应该是高点略微抬高的大反转
43:24 - 43:27
EN: Usually followed by a Lower High Major Trend Reversal,
ZH: 通常后面会有高点降低的大反转结构
43:27 - 43:30
EN: and this is a Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 也就是这个地方
43:30 - 43:32
EN: However, there’s very little energy.
ZH: 然而，看不到下跌的动能
43:32 - 43:36
EN: The market’s 30 bars into the day, 40 bars into the day.
ZH: 今天已经走了30根、40根K线
43:36 - 43:38
EN: All the bars are small.
ZH: 所有的K线都很小
43:38 - 43:39
EN: The follow-through is bad.
ZH: 跟随很差
43:39 - 43:46
EN: More likely any reversal attempt will lead to a brief move down
ZH: 很可能任何反转都只是小幅下跌，然后震荡区间会继续
43:44 - 43:46
EN: and then the Trading Range will resume.
ZH: 很可能任何反转都只是小幅下跌，然后震荡区间会继续
43:52 - 43:55
EN: The bears who sold this, they have to buy back here.
ZH: 做空的空头，必须在这里买入回补
43:55 - 43:58
EN: They have a bear breakout, bad follow-through, a bull bar.
ZH: 大阴线，跟随不好——阳线
43:58 - 44:01
EN: They have a bear breakout, even better bull bar.
ZH: 再次下跌，结果是更大的阳线
44:01 - 44:04
EN: So a failed breakout below the low of the past 4 hours
ZH: 未能成功跌破过去4个小时的最低点
44:04 - 44:06
EN: and a decent buy signal bar.
ZH: 而且还出现了很不错的做多信号K
44:07 - 44:08
EN: The bears will give up.
ZH: 空头会放弃
44:08 - 44:11
EN: They’ll take profits, and the bulls will buy for a scalp up.
ZH: 他们会止盈，同时多头会买入，做剥头皮交易
44:11 - 44:16
EN: Two legs down, one and then pullback and then two.
ZH: 两段下跌——1，反弹，2
Slide 013
Time: 44:20
Bilingual Transcript
44:24 - 44:25
EN: We have a series of Sell Climaxes.
ZH: 有一系列的抛售高潮
44:25 - 44:30
EN: Remember, every bear trend bar is a breakout and a climax.
ZH: 因为每根（大）阴线都是一次突破和高潮
44:30 - 44:34
EN: We have a Sell Climax here, again here, here, and here.
ZH: 所以这里是抛售高潮，还有这里，这里，这里，
44:34 - 44:38
EN: And what do you notice? A bear bar,
ZH: 你发现了什么？ 阴线，但是跟随呢？十字星
44:36 - 44:38
EN: but where’s the follow-through? It’s a doji bar.
ZH: 你发现了什么？ 阴线，但是跟随呢？十字星
44:38 - 44:41
EN: A bear bar here, and then we get a bull bar.
ZH: 阴线，然后阳线
44:41 - 44:44
EN: A pair of bear bars, not all that big, and then a bull doji.
ZH: 两根阴线，不是那么大，然后十字星
44:44 - 44:47
EN: Another pair of bear bars, and now we’re getting a big bull bar
ZH: 两根阴线，然后大阳线
44:47 - 44:51
EN: and we’re reversing up near yesterday’s high, yesterday’s close,
ZH: 回测昨天的高点和收盘价之后，开始反转上涨
44:51 - 44:53
EN: and the 60-minute Moving Average.
ZH: 而且处于60分钟的EMA20附近
44:53 - 44:58
EN: This might be a parabolic Sell Climax vacuum test of support.
ZH: 这很可能是抛物线高潮，对支撑位的真空测试
44:59 - 45:02
EN: Is it likely to reverse up and become a bull trend?
ZH: 会不会直接反转成为上涨趋势？
45:03 - 45:05
EN: No, but it’s likely not to go much further down
ZH: 不会，但也不会再下跌多少了
45:05 - 45:08
EN: and probably will attract some profit-taking.
ZH: 这样的下跌会吸引空头止盈
45:08 - 45:16
EN: After a series of Sell Climaxes, especially after you’ve had three, four,
ZH: 在一系列抛售高潮——尤其是3、4、5次之后， 再下跌的空间非常有限，
45:13 - 45:16
EN: or five of them, the odds are it’s not going to fall much further
ZH: 在一系列抛售高潮——尤其是3、4、5次之后， 再下跌的空间非常有限，
45:16 - 45:20
EN: and it’ll start to evolve into a Trading Range.
ZH: 会开始进入震荡区间
45:25 - 45:30
EN: The best pair of bear bars about 15 or 20 bars into the bear trend,
ZH: 下降趋势已经持续了15~20根K线， 此时再出现最大的两根阴线
45:30 - 45:34
EN: and it’s at support – 60-minute Moving Average, yesterday’s close,
ZH: 正好跌到支撑位——60分钟的EMA20，以及昨天的收盘价
45:34 - 45:41
EN: yesterday’s high – probably soon we’ll get 10 bars and two legs sideways to up.
ZH: 昨天的高点——大概率很快就会有两段10K的反弹，至少是横盘
45:45 - 45:47
EN: Reasonable to buy above the high of this bull bar.
ZH: 在这个阳线的高点上方买入做多是合理的
45:47 - 45:51
EN: You can either put your stop below or a Measured Move down
ZH: 可以把止损放在这个低点下方，或者放在MM目标位的下方（宽止损）
45:51 - 45:54
EN: and buy more at that low if you’d like.
ZH: （如果是有经验的交易员）会用宽止损并加仓
45:54 - 46:02
EN: What are the chances that this strong selloff
ZH: 这么强势的抛售，变成V型反转、大涨的概率有多少？ 概率很小
45:57 - 46:02
EN: is going to become a V-bottom and lead to a big reversal up? Small.
ZH: 这么强势的抛售，变成V型反转、大涨的概率有多少？ 概率很小
46:02 - 46:03
EN: A very Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 下降通道很窄
46:03 - 46:08
EN: Probably the best the bulls can get is a bull leg
ZH: 多头最多获得一个上涨波段，然后进入震荡区间
46:06 - 46:08
EN: in what will become a Trading Range.
ZH: 多头最多获得一个上涨波段，然后进入震荡区间
46:10 - 46:14
EN: Sometimes you get a surprise and you get a big reversal.
ZH: 有时会出现意外的大反转
46:14 - 46:17
EN: Usually you only get it after at least a Micro Double Bottom.
ZH: 至少需要一个小双底才能大反转
46:18 - 46:19
EN: We have a bottom here.
ZH: 这里开始上涨
46:19 - 46:23
EN: The bears tried to resume down here, and therefore we have a Micro Double Bottom
ZH: 空头尝试恢复下降趋势，所以这里有一个小双底
46:23 - 46:27
EN: with these lows and we have a decent reversal up – a much bigger rally
ZH: 这两个低点组成小双底，然后强势地反转上涨
46:27 - 46:30
EN: than I think what was likely, but sometimes you still get it.
ZH: 比我预期的涨幅更大，偶尔确实会发生这样的行情
46:30 - 46:34
EN: Once you get a big bull bar and then a follow-through bull bar,
ZH: 一旦看到一根大阳线，后面有跟随的阳线
46:34 - 46:37
EN: the market’s probably going to rally for some kind of a Measured Move up,
ZH: 那么市场大概率会涨到某个MM目标位
46:37 - 46:40
EN: which would take the market up to the top of the Sell Climax.
ZH: 会让市场一直涨到抛售高潮的起跌点
46:42 - 46:44
EN: If a trader bought this and scalped out
ZH: 如果一个交易者在这里买入，然后赚快钱离场了
46:44 - 46:48
EN: and he saw this pair of bull bars, he should try to buy again.
ZH: 当然看到这两根阳线，他应该再次买入
46:53 - 46:58
EN: A second buy signal bar, either above that bear bar or above the bull bar.
ZH: 第2做多信号K线，在那个阴线上方，或这个阳线上方（更好）
46:58 - 47:00
EN: Micro Double Bottom.
ZH: 小双底
47:00 - 47:03
EN: The bears tried to reverse down – Low 1, Low 2.
ZH: 空头尝试恢复下跌——低1，低2
47:03 - 47:05
EN: They could not even trigger the Low 2.
ZH: 低2甚至没能被触发
47:05 - 47:09
EN: Probably going at least up to the top of the most recent Sell Climax.
ZH: 大概率至少会反弹到最近一次抛售高潮的起跌点
47:09 - 47:13
EN: We might get all the way to the top of the entire Sell Climax.
ZH: 也有可能一直涨到最初的起跌点
47:13 - 47:18
EN: By the close of this bar, it looks like the market’s going to go higher.
ZH: 在这根K线收盘之后，市场看起来会继续上涨
47:18 - 47:20
EN: It’s Always In Long at this point.
ZH: 此时已经是单边上涨的行情了
47:25 - 47:28
EN: Consecutive strong bull bars, consecutive strong bull bars.
ZH: 连续的大阳线，连续的大阳线
47:28 - 47:34
EN: Even with the bad follow-through, we’re probably going to get some kind
ZH: 即使跟随不好，仍然会涨到某个MM目标位， 或者去测试今天前期的最高点
47:31 - 47:34
EN: of a Measured Move up, maybe testing the high of the day.
ZH: 即使跟随不好，仍然会涨到某个MM目标位， 或者去测试今天前期的最高点
47:34 - 47:37
EN: The rally has the same problem that the selloff had:
ZH: 这段上涨也有同样的问题：
47:37 - 47:40
EN: a series of trend bars with bad follow-through,
ZH: 大阳线后面的跟随都不好
47:40 - 47:42
EN: and for the bulls, a bull bar, bear bar.
ZH: 阳线，阴线
47:42 - 47:43
EN: Bull bar, bear bar.
ZH: 阳线，阴线
47:43 - 47:44
EN: 2 bull bars, bear bar.
ZH: 两根阳线，阴线
47:44 - 47:46
EN: 2 bull bars, doji.
ZH: 两根阳线，十字星
47:46 - 47:50
EN: And this is pretty much the exact opposite of what the bears had
ZH: 和刚才下跌的过程几乎一模一样
47:50 - 47:54
EN: - a series of Sell Climaxes with bad follow-through after each climax,
ZH: ——连续的抛售高潮，但每根大阴线之后的跟随都不好
47:54 - 47:58
EN: a series of Buy Climaxes with bad follow-through after each Buy Climax.
ZH: 连续的抢购高潮，每根大阳线之后的跟随都不好
47:59 - 48:01
EN: Probably limited upside.
ZH: 继续上涨的空间有限
48:01 - 48:05
EN: Here, we’re at the end of the day, so whatever follow-through we’re going to get
ZH: 这里已经收盘，所以不管后续的跟随如何
48:05 - 48:08
EN: or whatever reversal we’re going to get will come tomorrow.
ZH: 还是会有什么样的反转，都要看明天的行情了
48:13 - 48:17
EN: I talked about minor reversals today, minor climactic reversals.
ZH: 今天我主要讲了小反转，次要的高潮反转
Slide 014
Time: 48:15
Bilingual Transcript
48:17 - 48:27
EN: They’re more likely to result in a pause in the trend, and then after the pause,
ZH: 他们大概率只是让趋势暂停，暂停大约10根K线之后， 市场再决定到底是恢复趋势，还是反转
48:22 - 48:27
EN: after 10 bars or so, the market decides whether to resume or reverse.
ZH: 他们大概率只是让趋势暂停，暂停大约10根K线之后， 市场再决定到底是恢复趋势，还是反转
48:27 - 48:32
EN: They usually do not lead to major reversals – although sometimes they can.
ZH: 它们大多数时候无法造成大的反转——少部分时候会
48:36 - 48:37
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
48:37 - 48:39
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课
48:39 - 48:43
EN: This is the third of three videos on trading climactic reversals.
ZH: 如何交易高潮反转的3节课，到这里就全部讲完了