al-brooks-course
39D - Trading MTR Bottoms
Raw transcript and slide notes for 39D - Trading MTR Bottoms.
Overview
- Slides: 16
- Transcript segments: 476
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:10
EN: This is the fourth of four videos on trading Major Trend Reversal Bottoms.
ZH: 这是底部大反转的第4节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:12
Bilingual Transcript
00:14 - 00:20
EN: I want to begin by talking about how to move your stops
ZH: 首先我会讲如何在浮盈的时候使用追踪止损
00:17 - 00:20
EN: when the trend goes your way, and then next,
ZH: 首先我会讲如何在浮盈的时候使用追踪止损
00:20 - 00:23
EN: I want to talk about Major Trend Reversals on the open.
ZH: 然后我会讲到早盘的大反转
00:24 - 00:29
EN: They often form with fewer bars than what you need
ZH: 相比其它时间，早盘的大反转所需要的K线数量更少
00:27 - 00:29
EN: at other times during the day.
ZH: 相比其它时间，早盘的大反转所需要的K线数量更少
Slide 002
Time: 00:30
Bilingual Transcript
00:33 - 00:38
EN: We have a bear trend, a bull breakout, gap bars, a resumption of the bear trend,
ZH: 下降趋势，强势反弹，有缺口K线，然后下降趋势恢复
00:38 - 00:42
EN: and now a reasonable Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 现在可能是低点抬高的大反转
00:47 - 00:51
EN: Traders do not want to use the same stop all day.
ZH: 交易者不愿意把止损一直放在同一个地方
00:51 - 00:54
EN: They don’t want to take a risk of giving back too much of their profit,
ZH: 他们不想让利润回撤太多
00:54 - 00:58
EN: and therefore they raise the stop as the market goes their way.
ZH: 所以他们会随着市场上涨而抬高止损
00:58 - 01:00
EN: And this means that they trail their stop.
ZH: 这就是追踪止损
01:00 - 01:07
EN: After every new breakout to a significant high, especially with a breakout
ZH: 每次显著突破创新高之后，尤其是强势地突破， 他们就会抬高止损
01:04 - 01:07
EN: that’s reasonably strong, they’ll raise their stop.
ZH: 每次显著突破创新高之后，尤其是强势地突破， 他们就会抬高止损
01:07 - 01:12
EN: If he bought here, the trader would have an initial stop here, maybe below here.
ZH: 如果在这里买入，多头会把初始止损放在这里， 或者这个低点下方
01:12 - 01:15
EN: And then when we got a bull breakout here,
ZH: 然后这里多头向上突破
01:15 - 01:17
EN: even though this is not particularly strong,
ZH: 尽管不算特别的强势
01:17 - 01:21
EN: he might want to raise his stop from here to here,
ZH: 他可能会把止损从这里抬高到这里
01:21 - 01:22
EN: or maybe below this Double Bottom.
ZH: 甚至抬高到这个小双底的下方
01:25 - 01:30
EN: This is easier once you have a very clear, strong breakout to a new high.
ZH: 一旦出现了非常清晰、强势的突破创新高， 追踪止损就容易多了
01:30 - 01:32
EN: This then becomes a major Higher Low.
ZH: 它就变成了重要的低点
01:32 - 01:35
EN: Actually, any of these lows is a major Higher Low.
ZH: 实际上，这些低点都是重要的低点
01:35 - 01:39
EN: Most bulls would get out if it fell below this small Double Bottom
ZH: 如果跌破这个小双底，或者跌破这个起涨点， 大多数多头会离场
01:39 - 01:46
EN: or below the bottom of this bull breakout because the premise
ZH: 因为做多的前提是：市场处于上涨趋势，这是好的突破
01:44 - 01:49
EN: is that you’re in a bull trend, and if this is a good breakout,
ZH: 因为做多的前提是：市场处于上涨趋势，这是好的突破 如果这确实是一个强势的突破，
01:49 - 01:51
EN: it should not fall below the bottom of the breakout,
ZH: 那么它的起涨点就不应该被跌破
01:52 - 01:55
EN: and it should not fall below these Higher Lows.
ZH: 这些重要的低点就不应该被跌破
01:55 - 01:57
EN: Any of these Higher Lows is reasonable.
ZH: （把止损放在）其中任何一个重要低点的下方都是合理的
01:58 - 02:03
EN: Putting it below the bottom of this bull breakout
ZH: 放在这个多头突破的起涨点下方也是合理的
02:00 - 02:03
EN: once this bar closes is also reasonable.
ZH: 放在这个多头突破的起涨点下方也是合理的
Slide 003
Time: 02:05
Bilingual Transcript
02:09 - 02:13
EN: For the bears, they’re starting to get a lot of doji bars
ZH: 对于空头来说，开始出现很多十字星
02:13 - 02:17
EN: and we’re starting to go sideways, and we’re getting reversals every few bars.
ZH: 市场开始横盘，而且每隔几根K线就会有阳线反转上涨
02:17 - 02:21
EN: Therefore, the bear trend is evolving into a Trading Range.
ZH: 因此，下降趋势正在演变成震荡区间
02:23 - 02:24
EN: This is yesterday’s low.
ZH: 这是昨天的最低点
02:24 - 02:28
EN: We gapped down, and then we tried to reverse up from below yesterday’s low.
ZH: 跳空低开，然后尝试从昨天的低点下方反转上涨
02:28 - 02:33
EN: The bears resumed and got a new low, and now we’re reversing up a second time.
ZH: 恢复下跌，跌到新低之后，现在是第2次反转上涨
02:34 - 02:37
EN: This is a special type of opening reversal pattern.
ZH: 这是一种特殊的开盘反转模式
02:37 - 02:40
EN: It’s a second failed breakout below yesterday’s low.
ZH: 这是第2次跌破昨天的低点失败
02:41 - 02:43
EN: We broke below yesterday’s low; it’s failing.
ZH: 跌破了昨天的低点，反弹回来
02:43 - 02:47
EN: The bears took control again, and they’re failing a second time.
ZH: 空头再次尝试下跌，又失败了
02:47 - 02:51
EN: This is better than a 50/50 trade that you’re going to get a swing up.
ZH: 此时出现上涨波段的概率大于50%
02:54 - 02:56
EN: And we did get a pretty good rally here.
ZH: 后来也确实得到了很不错的反弹
02:56 - 03:00
EN: 3 consecutive bull bars, certainly breaking above a bear trend line.
ZH: 连续3根阳线，显然突破了下降趋势线
03:00 - 03:02
EN: I do not have it drawn.
ZH: 这里我没有画线
03:02 - 03:03
EN: The bears are trying to resume their trend.
ZH: 空头尝试恢复下降趋势
03:03 - 03:05
EN: We have gap bars here.
ZH: 这里有缺口K线
03:05 - 03:07
EN: Usually if you get gap bars in a bear trend,
ZH: 通常，如果在下降趋势中出现缺口K线
03:08 - 03:11
EN: the selloff leads to a Major Trend Reversal attempt.
ZH: 再次下跌之后，会尝试制造大反转
03:11 - 03:15
EN: This is also a breakout test of the signal bar high.
ZH: 这也是对信号K线高点的突破回测
03:15 - 03:18
EN: For the bears, they have a bear breakout and they have a gap
ZH: 对于空头来说，这根大阴线制造了缺口
03:18 - 03:20
EN: - the close of this bar and these lows.
ZH: 它的收盘和这些低点之间（存在缺口）
03:20 - 03:22
EN: But look at the follow-through bar.
ZH: 但是看看跟随K线
03:22 - 03:23
EN: It’s a reversal.
ZH: 反转上涨 （注：很快就补掉了缺口，所以是竭尽型缺口）
03:23 - 03:27
EN: This is therefore a failed bear breakout, and the bears who sold
ZH: 因此，这是一次失败的空头突破
03:27 - 03:30
EN: will buy back their shorts above this bull bar,
ZH: 卖出的空头会在这根阳线上方回补离场
03:30 - 03:34
EN: and the bulls who did not buy here, will buy here.
ZH: 之前没有买入的多头，会在这里买入做多
03:34 - 03:37
EN: This is a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 这是低点抬高的大反转结构
03:37 - 03:40
EN: Remember, this pattern is not a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 要注意，之前这里不是一个大反转的结构 （注：因为K线数量不够多）
03:40 - 03:45
EN: This is a special type of pattern.
ZH: 它是一种特殊的模式： 两次跌破昨天的低点失败后，反转上涨
03:42 - 03:45
EN: It’s a second failed breakout, yesterday’s low.
ZH: 它是一种特殊的模式： 两次跌破昨天的低点失败后，反转上涨
03:45 - 03:48
EN: This video is about Major Trend Reversal patterns,
ZH: 这节课是关于大反转的
03:48 - 03:52
EN: so this is the buy for what we’re taking about now.
ZH: 所以这个买入点是主要讨论的内容
03:54 - 03:57
EN: Some traders will put their stop right below here,
ZH: 一些交易者会把止损放在这个低点下方
03:57 - 04:00
EN: betting that the bears are getting a failed breakout.
ZH: 押注空头的突破会失败
04:01 - 04:03
EN: The bulls should not allow it to come back here.
ZH: （他们认为）这个低点不应该被跌破
04:03 - 04:05
EN: Other traders will put their stop down here.
ZH: 一些交易者会把止损放在这里
04:05 - 04:08
EN: Both are acceptable choices.
ZH: 两者都是可接受的选择
04:14 - 04:16
EN: If you did take the buy above the high of this bar,
ZH: 如果你在这根K线的高点上方挂突破买单
04:16 - 04:20
EN: you got filled right here, and the market starts to go your way.
ZH: 订单在这里成交，然后市场开始上涨
04:20 - 04:25
EN: Your Actual Risk was to 1 tick below the low of this bar from your entry price
ZH: 你的实际风险是从买入价，到这根K线的低点下方1个tick
04:25 - 04:27
EN: - which is small, the height of this brown box.
ZH: 就是这个棕色框框的高度——这个风险非常小
04:27 - 04:30
EN: And two times your Actual Risk is right here.
ZH: 两倍的实际风险在这里
04:30 - 04:36
EN: Mathematically, it’s always okay to take your full profit
ZH: 从数学上讲，在两倍实际风险的地方全部止盈是可以的
04:34 - 04:36
EN: at two times Actual Risk.
ZH: 从数学上讲，在两倍实际风险的地方全部止盈是可以的
04:36 - 04:42
EN: If you do that 100 times, the odds are very,
ZH: 如果这样做100次，极大的概率你最终可以盈利
04:39 - 04:42
EN: very high you’ll end up with a profit.
ZH: 如果这样做100次，极大的概率你最终可以盈利
04:42 - 04:49
EN: However, just because it’s mathematically acceptable
ZH: 然而，仅仅因为数学上可以接受，不代表它就是最优解
04:45 - 04:49
EN: and reasonable to do that, does not mean it’s optimal.
ZH: 然而，仅仅因为数学上可以接受，不代表它就是最优解
04:49 - 04:51
EN: It does not mean that it’s the best.
ZH: 不代表它是最好的做法
04:51 - 04:55
EN: But it is reasonable to do, at least to take partial profits.
ZH: 但这样做是合理的，至少可以止盈一部分
05:00 - 05:05
EN: Here we have a bear bar closing on its low and small Expanding Triangle.
ZH: 这里有阴线收在最低，是一个小的扩张三角形
05:05 - 05:08
EN: We went down, we have a Higher High, a Higher High,
ZH: 下跌，然后高点抬高，抬高 （注：同时低点也在降低）
05:08 - 05:09
EN: and this could be the end of the move.
ZH: 上涨有可能会在这里结束
05:09 - 05:11
EN: Could be a Wedge bear flag.
ZH: 它有可能是一个大的楔形雄起
05:11 - 05:15
EN: We reversed down, we reversed down, and now a third reversal down,
ZH: 反转下跌，反转下跌，现在第3次反转下跌
05:15 - 05:19
EN: and nested within the third leg is an Expanding Triangle top.
ZH: 在第3段的里面嵌套了一个扩张三角形
05:19 - 05:23
EN: It’s therefore reasonable for the bulls who bought for any reason
ZH: 所以对于多头来说，不管他们在哪里买入，
05:23 - 05:26
EN: to get out of all of their position right here if they want.
ZH: 在这里全部离场是合理的做法
05:26 - 05:28
EN: They can also continue to rely on their stop,
ZH: 他们也可以继续依赖止损
05:28 - 05:32
EN: hoping that the bear reversal will fail and we’ll continue higher.
ZH: 押注反转下跌的尝试会失败，会继续上涨
Slide 004
Time: 05:35
Bilingual Transcript
05:39 - 05:43
EN: What do you do up here? We have a bull breakout above a bull channel.
ZH: 在这里你会怎么做？加速突破了上涨通道
05:43 - 05:47
EN: 75% chance it’ll start to fail within about 5 bars,
ZH: 75%的概率，它会在5根K线之内开始反转下跌
05:47 - 05:51
EN: 25% chance it’ll lead to an even stronger bull trend.
ZH: 25%的概率它会发展成更强的上涨趋势
05:51 - 05:56
EN: We tried to reverse down here and then we’re trying
ZH: 第1次尝试反转下跌，现在是第2次尝试反转下跌
05:54 - 05:56
EN: to reverse down a second time.
ZH: 第1次尝试反转下跌，现在是第2次尝试反转下跌
05:56 - 06:02
EN: If I took this buy and I saw this, a second failed breakout
ZH: 如果我在这里买入，然后看到这个—— 突破上涨通道之后，第2次反转下跌
06:01 - 06:06
EN: above the bull channel, I would exit below that bear bar
ZH: 如果我在这里买入，然后看到这个—— 突破上涨通道之后，第2次反转下跌 我会在那个阴线下方离场，以防趋势反转
06:04 - 06:06
EN: just in case we did sell off.
ZH: 我会在那个阴线下方离场，以防趋势反转
06:06 - 06:09
EN: If it went sideways instead and formed a bull flag,
ZH: 如果没有下跌，而是横盘形成牛旗
06:09 - 06:12
EN: maybe a Double Bottom – Leg 1, pullback, Leg 2
ZH: 比如双底牛旗——1，反弹，2
06:12 - 06:15
EN: - and had a decent bull bar, I would buy again for another leg up.
ZH: 并且出现了好的阳线，我会再次买入，押注还有一段上涨
06:16 - 06:20
EN: A lot of Trading Range price action here, all through here, all through here.
ZH: 这里有很多震荡的价格行为，以及这里，还有这里
06:20 - 06:22
EN: This might be a 2nd Leg Trap.
ZH: 所以它有可能是第2段陷阱
06:22 - 06:27
EN: Leg 1, pullback, and then Leg 2 in what could be a Trading Range.
ZH: 第1段，回调，然后是潜在的震荡区间内的第2段
06:28 - 06:32
EN: If this is going to be the top of a Trading Range and I see a second entry sell
ZH: 如果这真的是震荡区间的上沿，出现了第2做空入场点，
06:32 - 06:35
EN: with a decent sell signal bar, I do not want to be holding long.
ZH: 而且有较好的做空信号K线，我不想继续持有多头仓位
06:36 - 06:40
EN: Therefore, this is a reasonable location to take profits if you bought here.
ZH: 因此在这里止盈是合理的，对于之前买入的多头来说
06:44 - 06:47
EN: And because of what I’m saying, the bears will take that short.
ZH: 也正是因为这个原因，空头会在这里做空
06:47 - 06:55
EN: A good bear bar closing on its low, a breakout,
ZH: 好的阴线收在最低； 多头尝试加速突破，但第2次反转下跌
06:51 - 06:55
EN: a second attempt to go higher and it’s failing twice.
ZH: 好的阴线收在最低； 多头尝试加速突破，但第2次反转下跌
06:55 - 06:59
EN: So the breakout failed here when it reversed down below this bar or that bar.
ZH: 这里是第1次——跌破这根K线低点的时候
06:59 - 07:03
EN: The bulls tried to resume, and now they’re failing again below a bear bar,
ZH: 多头尝试继续上涨，但是再一次，阴线的最低点被跌破 （注：再次触发了空头的突破卖单）
07:03 - 07:05
EN: and we have a lot of Trading Range price action
ZH: 而且之前有很多震荡的价格行为
07:05 - 07:08
EN: and we’re not above the top of the range.
ZH: 仍然在这个起跌点的下方
07:08 - 07:10
EN: We’re still possibly within a Trading Range.
ZH: 所以仍然在震荡区间里面
07:10 - 07:14
EN: So bears will take that sell, looking for a failed breakout
ZH: 以空头会在这里做空，押注多头的突破失败
07:14 - 07:16
EN: and a test of the bottom of the breakout.
ZH: 押注会跌到突破的起涨点
Slide 005
Time: 07:20
Bilingual Transcript
07:21 - 07:26
EN: What about this? We tried to reverse up here and closed back down here.
ZH: 这里呢？尝试上涨，下跌
07:26 - 07:29
EN: Tried to reverse up again, broke to a new low.
ZH: 尝试上涨，跌到新低
07:29 - 07:33
EN: Tried to reverse up again, another new low, maybe it’s slightly Lower Low,
ZH: 再次尝试反转上涨，又跌到了新低，
07:33 - 07:35
EN: and we’re trying to reverse up a third time.
ZH: 现在是第3次反转上涨
07:36 - 07:38
EN: You can call it a Wedge Bottom if you want.
ZH: 你可以把它看作是楔形底
07:38 - 07:41
EN: You can call it the second failed breakout below yesterday’s low
ZH: 你可以说它是第2次跌破昨天的低点失败
07:41 - 07:44
EN: - which it is, and a fairly reliable buy setup.
ZH: 这确实是一个相当可靠的做多机会
07:44 - 07:48
EN: Some bulls will buy above this bar even though it’s not a good buy signal bar.
ZH: 一些多头会在这根K线上方买入， 尽管它不是一个很好的做多信号K
07:48 - 07:50
EN: Other bulls will wait for consecutive bull bars
ZH: 一些多头会等待连续的阳线
07:50 - 07:53
EN: and then buy closes here or here.
ZH: 然后在这里或这里买入
07:53 - 07:57
EN: And then you get the Major Trend Reversal bulls will buy
ZH: 然后有押注大反转的多头，会在这根K线的上方买入
07:56 - 07:57
EN: above this bar right here.
ZH: 然后有押注大反转的多头，会在这根K线的上方买入
08:00 - 08:02
EN: Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 低点抬高的大反转
08:10 - 08:14
EN: If you’re swing trading and you do not have a clear reason to get out
ZH: 如果你在做波段交易，还没有出现明确的离场信号
08:14 - 08:17
EN: of your trade, you can stay long and rely on your stop.
ZH: 你就可以继续持有，依赖止损
08:17 - 08:20
EN: This is a reasonable place to get out of your trade.
ZH: 这是一个合理的离场点
08:20 - 08:23
EN: We’ve got a Wedge or an Expanding Triangle - one, two, three
ZH: 有楔形顶，或扩张三角形顶——1，2，3
08:23 - 08:26
EN: - inside of a larger three push pattern.
ZH: 嵌套在一个更大的3推模式内部
08:26 - 08:29
EN: Up one, pullback, two, pullback, three.
ZH: 1，回调；2，回调；3
08:29 - 08:32
EN: It’s reasonable to get out of your longs here.
ZH: 多头在这里离场是合理的
08:32 - 08:34
EN: But if you’re trying to trade Always In,
ZH: 但是，如果你是按照单边趋势的方法交易 （注：如果你认为市场处于某个趋势）
08:34 - 08:37
EN: you have to get long again above a bull bar.
ZH: 那么你就需要在阳线上方再次入场做多
08:37 - 08:41
EN: You’d buy again above this bull bar to catch that leg up.
ZH: （按照系统）你应该在这个阳线上方再次买入， 这样就不会错过那一段上涨
08:51 - 08:59
EN: This is a sell in a Tight Trading Range, and a stop entry sell
ZH: 这里是窄震荡区间， 在窄区间内用突破卖单做空是低胜率的做法
08:56 - 08:59
EN: in a Tight Trading Range is a low probability bet.
ZH: 这里是窄震荡区间， 在窄区间内用突破卖单做空是低胜率的做法
08:59 - 09:05
EN: Also, the pullbacks from this low are small – 1 bar, 1 bar, 2 bars
ZH: 而且，自从这个低点开始上涨之后，回调的时间很短—— 1根K线，1根K线，2根K线
09:05 - 09:10
EN: - and they’re not falling very far, and therefore this is the start
ZH: 而且下跌的幅度也很小，所以这是一个回调很小的上涨趋势
09:08 - 09:10
EN: of a Small Pullback Bull Trend.
ZH: 而且下跌的幅度也很小，所以这是一个回调很小的上涨趋势
09:10 - 09:12
EN: Not a very good short.
ZH: 不是一个很好的做空机会
09:12 - 09:15
EN: It’s a low probability short for stop entry bears.
ZH: 对于用突破卖单入场的空头而言，这是低胜率的做空
09:15 - 09:22
EN: Therefore the premise that this is a reversal up
ZH: 此时低点抬高的大反转（这个前提）仍然有效
09:18 - 09:22
EN: and a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal is still valid,
ZH: 此时低点抬高的大反转（这个前提）仍然有效
09:22 - 09:26
EN: and therefore it’s acceptable to rely on a stop either here or here.
ZH: 因此，多头依赖这里或这里的止损是合理的做法
Slide 006
Time: 09:30
Bilingual Transcript
09:32 - 09:34
EN: A lot of traders, lot of the swing traders,
ZH: 很多交易者，很多波段交易者
09:34 - 09:38
EN: simply ignore this and rely on their stop.
ZH: 会直接忽略它，并且依赖下方的止损
09:38 - 09:42
EN: As long as there’s not a major reversal and only reversals
ZH: 只要没有出现大反转的结构，
09:42 - 09:49
EN: in a Tight Trading Range, they’ll rely on their stop
ZH: 如果只是窄区间内的反转，他们会忽视， 会继续依赖重要低点下方的止损
09:44 - 09:49
EN: below the most recent strong bull leg, taking a chance
ZH: 如果只是窄区间内的反转，他们会忽视， 会继续依赖重要低点下方的止损
09:49 - 09:53
EN: that we’ll get trend resumption up instead of trend reversal down.
ZH: 押注趋势会继续上涨，而不是被反转
09:55 - 09:57
EN: Strong breakout.
ZH: 强势的突破
09:57 - 09:59
EN: If you bought here, traders will put their stop here.
ZH: 如果在这里买入，多头会把止损放在这里
09:59 - 10:03
EN: After this breakout, a lot of bulls will put their stop just below here,
ZH: 这次突破之后，多头会把止损放在这个低点下方
10:03 - 10:08
EN: and then once we start to break out again, bulls will raise their stops here.
ZH: 再次突破之后，止损抬高到新的低点下方
10:09 - 10:12
EN: It doesn’t matter if you bought here, here, here, or here;
ZH: 无论你是在这里、这里、这里、还是这里买入
10:12 - 10:16
EN: once you’re starting to get another strong breakout to a new high,
ZH: 一旦强势突破创新高
10:16 - 10:17
EN: you’re going to raise your stop.
ZH: 你就可以抬高止损
10:22 - 10:27
EN: The swing traders are not going to be fooled by minor reversals,
ZH: 波段交易者不会被回调所迷惑
10:27 - 10:32
EN: reversals that are likely only to lead to a small leg
ZH: 这些反转的尝试大概率只会变成小的震荡区间，或者牛旗
10:30 - 10:32
EN: in a Trading Range or a bull flag.
ZH: 这些反转的尝试大概率只会变成小的震荡区间，或者牛旗
10:35 - 10:44
EN: A lot of bear bars closing on their lows, and it looks like they could be
ZH: 很多阴线收在最低，看起来像是要反转下跌， 但左边的上涨通道很窄
10:39 - 10:44
EN: the start of a reversal down, but the channel is fairly tight.
ZH: 很多阴线收在最低，看起来像是要反转下跌， 但左边的上涨通道很窄
10:44 - 10:45
EN: The pullbacks are very small.
ZH: 回调的幅度很小
10:46 - 10:53
EN: Therefore, these reversals are minor, and it’s more likely
ZH: 所以这些只是小反转，更有可能变成震荡区间—— 就算有深度回调
10:49 - 10:53
EN: to lead to a Trading Range – we may pull back down to here,
ZH: 所以这些只是小反转，更有可能变成震荡区间—— 就算有深度回调
10:53 - 10:58
EN: but probably not below there – or a bull flag and we’ll get resumption up.
ZH: 大概率也不会跌破那个低点—— 或者是一个牛旗，后续继续上涨
10:59 - 11:05
EN: These are not strong reasons to exit longs
ZH: 如果你押注大反转上涨，此时没有充足的理由离场
11:02 - 11:05
EN: if you’re betting on a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 如果你押注大反转上涨，此时没有充足的理由离场
11:12 - 11:17
EN: If you bought here or here, you had a lot of profit right here.
ZH: 如果你在这里或这里买入，这个时候已经赚了不少钱
11:17 - 11:21
EN: However, your stop is down here, and you have to rely on your stop
ZH: 尽管你的止损在这么低的位置，但你必须依赖这个止损
11:21 - 11:25
EN: because sometimes the bears will make a strong attempt to take control.
ZH: 因为有时候空头会积极地争夺市场的控制权
11:25 - 11:28
EN: As long as they are unable to get below your stop,
ZH: 只要他们不能跌破你的止损
11:28 - 11:30
EN: then the bulls are still in control.
ZH: 控制权就仍然在多头手中
11:30 - 11:33
EN: That means more bulls bought this bear close
ZH: 这意味着会有更多的多头在阴线的收盘买入，
11:33 - 11:37
EN: than bears selling that bear close, and the bulls won.
ZH: 而不是更多的空头在这里卖出，最终多头获胜
11:37 - 11:39
EN: They took control back from the bears.
ZH: 他们从空头手中夺回了控制权
11:43 - 11:46
EN: Major Trend Reversals on the open often happen very quickly
ZH: 开盘时的大反转通常发生得很快
Slide 007
Time: 11:45
Bilingual Transcript
11:46 - 11:51
EN: and have fewer bars than Major Trend Reversals occurring later in the day.
ZH: 不需要其它时间那么多K线
11:51 - 11:55
EN: Therefore, you have to be quick to diagnose what’s going on
ZH: 因此，你必须快速判断发生了什么，
11:55 - 11:58
EN: and quick to enter, because things can happen very fast.
ZH: 并且迅速入场，因为机会转瞬即逝
Slide 008
Time: 11:59
Bilingual Transcript
12:01 - 12:05
EN: This is the first bar of the day, and we had a very strong selloff.
ZH: 这是当天的第1根K线，有非常强势的抛售
12:05 - 12:11
EN: We have 5 consecutive bear bars, several closing on their lows,
ZH: 有连续5根阴线，其中几根收在最低，收在一半以下
12:10 - 12:11
EN: below their midpoints.
ZH: 有连续5根阴线，其中几根收在最低，收在一半以下
12:11 - 12:13
EN: This is probably a minor reversal.
ZH: 这大概率只是小反弹
12:14 - 12:17
EN: It could be an opening reversal up from below yesterday’s low,
ZH: 价格确实在开盘从昨天的低点下方反转上涨
12:17 - 12:18
EN: but it’s probably minor.
ZH: 但大概率只是小反转
12:19 - 12:24
EN: Is this a Double Bottom or Higher Low Major Trend Reversal?
ZH: 这是一个双底，还是低点抬高的大反转？
12:24 - 12:28
EN: We only had 2 bars up, and we only had 3 bars, 4 bars down.
ZH: 只有2根K线上涨，只有3~4根K线下跌
12:28 - 12:29
EN: The pattern is very small.
ZH: 这个结构非常小
12:29 - 12:32
EN: Small patterns are usually minor.
ZH: 小结构通常只能造成小反转
12:33 - 12:35
EN: And it might’ve been minor, until we got this.
ZH: 它确实可能是小反转，直到你看到它
12:35 - 12:38
EN: At this point the bulls clearly have taken control.
ZH: 此时多头显然已经掌控了局面
12:38 - 12:42
EN: We’re Always In Long, and we’re probably going for some kind
ZH: 单边上涨，可能会涨到某个MM目标位，
12:41 - 12:49
EN: of a Measured Move up, maybe based upon the height of this Low 2 bear flag,
ZH: 单边上涨，可能会涨到某个MM目标位， 比如基于这个高2熊旗，或者这个双顶熊旗， 或者基于这个突破的高度（往上翻一倍）
12:45 - 12:49
EN: this Double Top bear flag, maybe based upon the height of this breakout.
ZH: 比如基于这个高2熊旗，或者这个双顶熊旗， 或者基于这个突破的高度（往上翻一倍）
12:49 - 12:53
EN: The open of the first bar to the close of the second bar, Measured Move up.
ZH: 从1根K线的开盘，第2根K线的收盘，MM目标位
12:53 - 12:55
EN: At this point we’re clearly Always In Long.
ZH: 此时，市场显然处于单边上涨
13:00 - 13:02
EN: We had a Wedge Bottom.
ZH: 之前这里有一个楔形底
13:02 - 13:05
EN: We had a bear breakout below the bottom, and we then broke above the top,
ZH: 先略微向下跌破，然后剧烈上涨
13:05 - 13:14
EN: and the bulls were hoping that this was strong enough Buying Pressure
ZH: 这里有足够强大的买压， 所以多头认为在下跌之后可能会有大反转的机会
13:09 - 13:14
EN: that if we sell off again, we might get a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 这里有足够强大的买压， 所以多头认为在下跌之后可能会有大反转的机会
13:22 - 13:27
EN: It broke above the top of a bear channel, and therefore if we get a resumption
ZH: 它强势突破了下降通道的上沿， 所以在下降趋势恢复之后，
13:27 - 13:31
EN: of the bear trend, it might fail and we might get a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 可能会形成大反转的机会
Slide 009
Time: 13:35
Bilingual Transcript
13:42 - 13:48
EN: On the open, 50% of the time you’ll get a strong move one way
ZH: 开盘时，再强势的上涨或下跌，有50%的概率都会被反转
13:46 - 13:48
EN: or the other that reverses.
ZH: 开盘时，再强势的上涨或下跌，有50%的概率都会被反转
13:48 - 13:51
EN: For example, we have a strong move up and reversed down.
ZH: 比如，开盘强势上涨，然后反转下跌
13:51 - 13:55
EN: Now we have a strong move down; 50% chance it’s going to reverse up.
ZH: 强势下跌，有50%的概率它会反转上涨
13:56 - 14:01
EN: Do not get locked into what you think
ZH: 不要执着地认为它一定是强下降趋势的开始
13:59 - 14:01
EN: is going to be the start of a strong trend.
ZH: 不要执着地认为它一定是强下降趋势的开始
14:04 - 14:07
EN: Here, we’re trying to break below the bottom of the Wedge.
ZH: 这里跌破了楔形的底部
14:07 - 14:09
EN: We’re trying to break below the bottom of this bull reversal
ZH: 跌破了这根大阳线的起涨点
14:09 - 14:11
EN: - but we reversed up.
ZH: 然后开始反转上涨
14:11 - 14:13
EN: This is the biggest bear bar of the day.
ZH: 这是下降趋势中最大的阴线
14:13 - 14:16
EN: It could be an exhaustive Sell Climax.
ZH: 可能是竭尽型的抛售高潮
14:16 - 14:22
EN: Usually the reversal up from a selloff that’s that strong will be minor,
ZH: 通常这么强势的下跌之后，第1次上涨只是小反转
14:22 - 14:28
EN: and the bulls usually need at least a Micro Double Bottom
ZH: 多头至少需要一个小双底，才能夺回当天对市场的控制权
14:25 - 14:28
EN: or small Double Bottom if they’re going to take control over the day.
ZH: 多头至少需要一个小双底，才能夺回当天对市场的控制权
14:28 - 14:30
EN: And that’s what they got here.
ZH: 就像这里一样
14:30 - 14:36
EN: If you want, you can call this a second failed breakout
ZH: 你可以把它看作是第2次跌破昨天最低点失败 （注：这里的”失败”一词，指的是跌破后很快反转上涨）
14:32 - 14:36
EN: below the low of yesterday and below this reversal.
ZH: 你可以把它看作是第2次跌破昨天最低点失败 （注：这里的”失败”一词，指的是跌破后很快反转上涨）
14:36 - 14:37
EN: A second attempt to reverse up.
ZH: 第2次尝试反转上涨
14:37 - 14:41
EN: We tried to reverse up here and now we’re trying to reverse up again.
ZH: 之前在这里尝试反转上涨，现在再次尝试
14:41 - 14:44
EN: The bear channel is so tight, the bulls needed a second entry.
ZH: 下降通道非常窄，多头需要第2入场点
14:44 - 14:48
EN: The second buy signal bar has a better body than the first,
ZH: 第2个做多信号K线的体积也更大
14:48 - 14:51
EN: and second entries are always higher probability.
ZH: 而且第2入场点的胜率总是更高一些
14:51 - 14:56
EN: I would call this either a second failed breakout below yesterday’s low
ZH: 我（把这种特殊的模式）称为“第2次跌破昨天最低点失败”——
14:56 - 15:00
EN: - a bear breakout that failed, another attempt at a breakout that failed –
ZH: 第1次失败的空头突破，第2次尝试也失败
15:00 - 15:04
EN: I would also call it a small Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 我也会说它是低点抬高的大反转
15:04 - 15:07
EN: It’s a Double Bottom with a slightly Higher Low.
ZH: 这个双底的低点略微抬高
15:07 - 15:11
EN: It’s a reasonable buy for a possible low of the day.
ZH: 在这里买入，押注这就是今天的最低点，是合理的
Slide 010
Time: 15:25
Bilingual Transcript
15:27 - 15:29
EN: Pretty good Buying Pressure.
ZH: 相当不错的买压
15:29 - 15:31
EN: The biggest bar in the past 30 or 40 bars,
ZH: 它是近30~40根K线中体积最大的
15:31 - 15:34
EN: and it’s a bull bar closing near its high.
ZH: 是收在最高的大阳线
15:34 - 15:36
EN: We have a bull bar closing on its high here.
ZH: 这里有一根阳线收在最高
15:36 - 15:38
EN: We have a good size bull bar here closing on its high,
ZH: 又是一根阳线收在最高，且体积较大
15:38 - 15:43
EN: and then another one here, and that’s a sign
ZH: 然后这里又有一个，这是多头在尝试夺取控制权的信号
15:41 - 15:43
EN: that the bulls are trying to take control.
ZH: 然后这里又有一个，这是多头在尝试夺取控制权的信号
15:50 - 15:53
EN: If you did take this buy – you buy on a stop above the high of this bar,
ZH: 如果你在这里买入——你在这根K线的高点上方挂突破买单
15:53 - 15:57
EN: you get filled right here – Actual Risk is to below that low.
ZH: 订单在这里成交——实际风险在那个低点下方
15:57 - 16:00
EN: Initial Risk is to below this low.
ZH: 初始风险在这个低点下方
16:00 - 16:06
EN: Actual Risk was very tiny, from your entry price right here
ZH: 实际风险非常小：从你的买入价，到那根K线的低点
16:04 - 16:06
EN: to just below the low of that bar.
ZH: 实际风险非常小：从你的买入价，到那根K线的低点
16:06 - 16:09
EN: Two times Actual Risk would only be right here.
ZH: 两倍实际风险在这里
16:09 - 16:13
EN: If you’re looking for a swing trade, I think that profit is too small.
ZH: 如果你想做波段交易，这个利润就太小了
16:13 - 16:16
EN: While mathematically it’s okay to take that profit,
ZH: 虽然在数学上，这样止盈是OK的
16:16 - 16:20
EN: taking a minimum profit is rarely ever the best thing.
ZH: 但只赚最小利润往往不是最好的选择
16:20 - 16:25
EN: When you’re getting a major reversal and you see a big Sell Climax like this,
ZH: 当你看到一个大反转的结构，当你看到这么大的抛售高潮
16:25 - 16:28
EN: you have to be thinking that the market may go all the way up to the top
ZH: 你必须考虑到，市场可能会一路上涨到抛售高潮的起跌点
16:28 - 16:35
EN: of the Sell Climax, and therefore taking a small profit,
ZH: 所以只赚一点点利润，就算已经达到了两倍实际风险， 也不是一个好主意
16:31 - 16:35
EN: even if it’s two times Actual Risk, is probably a bad idea.
ZH: 所以只赚一点点利润，就算已经达到了两倍实际风险， 也不是一个好主意
16:36 - 16:40
EN: Initial Risk is always at least as big as Actual Risk.
ZH: 初始风险永远都是大于等于实际风险的 （注：当且仅当初始止损被打到时，两者相等）
16:40 - 16:41
EN: It’s usually bigger.
ZH: 通常初始止损更大
16:41 - 16:46
EN: A lot of traders like to take partial profits at two times Initial Risk,
ZH: 很多交易者喜欢在两倍初始风险的地方止盈一部分
16:47 - 16:49
EN: especially when they’re trading a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 尤其是在做大反转的时候
16:49 - 16:56
EN: If they buy above the high of this bar, their Initial Risk is
ZH: 如果在这根K线的高点上方买入， 初始风险在那个低点的下方，大约是蓝色框框的高度
16:52 - 16:56
EN: to just below the low of that bar, so about the size of this blue box.
ZH: 如果在这根K线的高点上方买入， 初始风险在那个低点的下方，大约是蓝色框框的高度
16:57 - 17:00
EN: Here’s one time Initial Risk, here’s two times Initial Risk,
ZH: 一倍初始风险在这里； 两倍初始风险在这里
17:00 - 17:04
EN: so it’s reasonable to take partial or even full profits.
ZH: 在这里止盈部分或全部仓位是合理的
17:04 - 17:09
EN: But when you see the market racing up like this, you have to assume it’s going
ZH: 但是当你看到市场上涨这么快速时， 你必须假设会涨到某个MM目标位
17:08 - 17:15
EN: for some kind of a Measured Move up, maybe from the open of this breakout
ZH: 但是当你看到市场上涨这么快速时， 你必须假设会涨到某个MM目标位 也许是从它的开盘，到它的收盘，往上翻一倍
17:11 - 17:15
EN: to the close of this breakout bar up here.
ZH: 也许是从它的开盘，到它的收盘，往上翻一倍
17:15 - 17:21
EN: And therefore, when you see it racing up, if you were originally planning
ZH: 因此，当你看到它快速上涨时， 如果你原本计划在两倍初始风险止盈，
17:19 - 17:24
EN: on exiting at two times your Initial Risk, you might hold to see what happens.
ZH: 因此，当你看到它快速上涨时， 如果你原本计划在两倍初始风险止盈， 你可以继续持有看看，会发生什么
17:24 - 17:27
EN: And then maybe in here you decide, “Okay, it’s stalling.
ZH: 然后在这里，你可能觉得：“好吧，上涨停滞了”
17:27 - 17:30
EN: Maybe I’ll get out part here and hold part for a swing up.”
ZH: “在这里止盈一部分，剩下的继续持有做波段”
17:35 - 17:39
EN: We have a reversal, a strong selloff, and now a strong rally.
ZH: 行情反转了，剧烈的抛售，现在强势反转上涨
Slide 011
Time: 17:35
Bilingual Transcript
17:43 - 17:45
EN: 60% chance of some kind of a Measured Move up
ZH: 60%的概率会涨到某个MM目标位
17:45 - 17:49
EN: - maybe simply a Measured Move up based upon the height of this bear flag.
ZH: 也许只是把这个熊旗的高度往上翻一倍
17:49 - 17:52
EN: We have a Low 2 bear flag – Low 1, Low 2.
ZH: 这是一个低2熊旗——低1，低2
17:53 - 17:56
EN: Maybe a Measured Move up based upon the – the height of this Double Bottom.
ZH: 可能是把这个双底的高度往上翻一倍
17:56 - 17:58
EN: Here’s the Double Bottom, here’s the neckline.
ZH: 双底，颈线在这里
17:58 - 18:00
EN: Measured Move up is right around here.
ZH: MM目标位在这里
18:00 - 18:05
EN: This is so strong, usually you’re going to get
ZH: 这两根大阳线太强势了， 通常会涨到基于实体高度的MM目标位
18:02 - 18:05
EN: a Measured Move up based upon the bodies.
ZH: 这两根大阳线太强势了， 通常会涨到基于实体高度的MM目标位
18:05 - 18:08
EN: The open of the first bar, close of the final bar.
ZH: 从第1根K线的开盘，到第2根K线的收盘
18:08 - 18:09
EN: That is the Measured Move up.
ZH: MM目标位在这里
18:09 - 18:12
EN: Did not quite get there, but got reasonably close.
ZH: 没有完全达到，但非常接近
18:17 - 18:24
EN: When the market gets near your target and your target is very far
ZH: 市场接近目标位，而你的入场点在很低的地方 你赚到了很多、很多利润
18:21 - 18:24
EN: from your entry price, you have a big, big profit,
ZH: 市场接近目标位，而你的入场点在很低的地方 你赚到了很多、很多利润
18:24 - 18:27
EN: and you’re still possibly in a Trading Range.
ZH: 但此时市场仍然可能处于震荡区间内
18:27 - 18:30
EN: It’s reasonable to take your profits on a reversal down.
ZH: 所以在反转下跌时止盈是合理的
18:30 - 18:36
EN: We have a bear bar, we have three pushes up
ZH: 有阴线，有3次向上的推动——1，回调；2，回调；3； 涨回到了这个之前横盘了20多根K线的区间
18:33 - 18:40
EN: - one, pullback, two, pullback, three, back into this Trading Range
ZH: 有阴线，有3次向上的推动——1，回调；2，回调；3； 涨回到了这个之前横盘了20多根K线的区间 涨回到了这个之前横盘了20多根K线的区间
18:37 - 18:40
EN: where we went sideways here for about 20 bars.
ZH: 涨回到了这个之前横盘了20多根K线的区间
18:40 - 18:42
EN: We may start to go sideways here as well.
ZH: 可能在这个价格再次进入横盘
18:42 - 18:45
EN: This is a reasonable location to take profits.
ZH: 在这里止盈是合理的
18:49 - 18:52
EN: If you want, you can call it a nested Wedge.
ZH: 你也可以把它看作嵌套式楔形
18:52 - 18:57
EN: One push up, pullback, two pushes up, pullback, now a third push up, reversing.
ZH: 1，回调；2，回调；现在是第3推，反转
18:57 - 19:02
EN: One push up, pullback, second push up, pullback, and now a third push up.
ZH: 1，回调；2，回调；然后是第3推
19:03 - 19:11
EN: A lot of times I simply connect the highs of the first and third bar,
ZH: 我直接连接了1和3，并不在意第2推是否超过了这条线
19:07 - 19:11
EN: and I don’t worry that the second breakout, the second leg up, is above the top.
ZH: 我直接连接了1和3，并不在意第2推是否超过了这条线
19:11 - 19:16
EN: I’m just trying to count pushes up – one, pullback, two, pullback, three
ZH: 重点是有3次向上的推动——1，回调；2，回调；3
19:16 - 19:23
EN: - and connecting the first and third bar reminds me
ZH: 把1和3连起来，可以提醒我这是一个楔形结构， 尽管它没有完美的楔形形状
19:19 - 19:23
EN: that it’s a possible Wedge pattern even though it does not have a Wedge shape.
ZH: 把1和3连起来，可以提醒我这是一个楔形结构， 尽管它没有完美的楔形形状
Slide 012
Time: 19:25
Bilingual Transcript
19:28 - 19:33
EN: We ended with a bear trend yesterday, and here’s the first bar today.
ZH: 昨天以尾盘下跌结束，这是今天的第1根K线
19:33 - 19:34
EN: We rallied strongly.
ZH: 强势上涨
19:34 - 19:36
EN: It’s actually a small Parabolic Wedge.
ZH: 这实际上是一个小的抛物线楔形
19:36 - 19:41
EN: We went up and then we paused, we went up again
ZH: 上涨，暂停；上涨，暂停；然后第3次上涨
19:39 - 19:41
EN: and we paused, and we went up a third time.
ZH: 上涨，暂停；上涨，暂停；然后第3次上涨
19:42 - 19:45
EN: The bears got a pretty good reversal down below the bottom of the bull breakout.
ZH: 空头制造了非常好的反转，跌破了开盘大阳线的起涨点
19:46 - 19:48
EN: But look what’s happening at yesterday’s low.
ZH: 但是看看在昨天的低点发生了什么
19:49 - 19:52
EN: We have a bear trend, a very strong bull breakout.
ZH: 下降趋势，非常强的多头突破
19:52 - 19:56
EN: We broke to below yesterday’s low, and we got a big tail on this bar.
ZH: 再次下跌，跌破了昨天的低点，但这根K线的下影线很长
19:57 - 20:01
EN: The bears tried to resume, and then we have another tail
ZH: 空头尝试继续下跌，但是这根K线又有长下影线， 而且最后收了一根阳线
19:59 - 20:01
EN: on this bar and we have a bull body.
ZH: 空头尝试继续下跌，但是这根K线又有长下影线， 而且最后收了一根阳线
20:02 - 20:04
EN: This is a type of Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 这是一种大反转的模式
20:04 - 20:08
EN: It’s a slightly Lower Low, so a Lower Low Major Trend Reversal
ZH: 低点略微降低的底部大反转，
20:08 - 20:09
EN: and a Micro Double Bottom.
ZH: 同时这里有小双底
20:09 - 20:12
EN: We went down, we went up, we went down, we’re going up,
ZH: 下跌，上涨，下跌，上涨
20:12 - 20:14
EN: and it’s a good buy signal bar.
ZH: 它是一个好的做多信号K线
20:14 - 20:17
EN: And we’re still in the first hour, hour-and-a-half of the day,
ZH: 目前开盘还不到一个半小时（注：是第16根5分钟K线， 以后会讲到，第18根K线附近容易发生反转或突破）
20:17 - 20:20
EN: and therefore this could be an opening reversal.
ZH: 因此仍然可能是开盘反转（的机会）
20:20 - 20:24
EN: After the first bar we went to a new high and reversed down.
ZH: 从第1根K线开始，先是涨到新高，然后反转下跌
20:24 - 20:27
EN: Now we went to a new low and we’re trying to reverse up.
ZH: 现在又跌到新低，尝试反转上涨
20:27 - 20:31
EN: That makes the day BreakOut Mode, and it’s reasonable to buy the reversal up,
ZH: 这使得当天处于突破模式，买入押注反转上涨是合理的
20:31 - 20:35
EN: especially given it’s a failed breakout below yesterday’s low,
ZH: 尤其是考虑到这里跌破昨天的低点失败
20:35 - 20:38
EN: a Micro Double Bottom, and a good looking buy signal bar.
ZH: 有小双底，有不错的做多信号K线
20:41 - 20:46
EN: Very big up, very big down.
ZH: 大涨、大跌，造成大的困惑
20:44 - 20:46
EN: Probably big confusion.
ZH: 大涨、大跌，造成大的困惑
20:46 - 20:48
EN: Confusion is a hallmark of a Trading Range.
ZH: 困惑是震荡区间的特征
20:48 - 20:53
EN: A Trading Range means we’re probably going to retrace a lot of this selloff.
ZH: 如果确实是震荡区间，那么这里的抛售大部分会被涨回去
20:53 - 20:56
EN: Maybe we’ll get all the way up here, to the top of the Sell Climax.
ZH: 也许会一路上涨到抛售高潮的起跌点
20:56 - 21:02
EN: Trading Range also means you want to buy low, and look at the potential range.
ZH: 在震荡区域间中，你应该逢低买入； 看看这个潜在的区间，现在在底部附近
21:01 - 21:02
EN: We’re low.
ZH: 在震荡区域间中，你应该逢低买入； 看看这个潜在的区间，现在在底部附近
21:02 - 21:04
EN: This is a good location to buy.
ZH: 这是一个好的买点
21:07 - 21:09
EN: Strong reversal up.
ZH: 强势反转上涨
21:09 - 21:14
EN: Two legs up – one, pullback, two – testing the top of the Sell Climax.
ZH: 两段上涨——1，回调，2——测试了抛售高潮的起跌点
21:14 - 21:16
EN: A good location for profit-taking.
ZH: 是多头止盈的好机会
21:21 - 21:25
EN: This is a Low 1, Low 2, very Tight Bull Channel.
ZH: 低1，低2，上涨通道很窄
21:25 - 21:30
EN: Probably going to get a second leg up, but it’s more than two times Actual Risk.
ZH: 大概率有第2段上涨； 但此时的利润已经超过了两倍实际风险
21:31 - 21:33
EN: You buy above this bar, get filled here.
ZH: 你在这根K线的上方买入
21:33 - 21:35
EN: Your Actual Risk is only right here.
ZH: 实际风险在这里
21:36 - 21:39
EN: This is probably at least four or five times your Actual Risk.
ZH: 现在利润至少是实际风险的四五倍
21:39 - 21:43
EN: Your Initial Risk if you took this buy is probably below here,
ZH: 如果你在这里买入，初始止损在这个低点下方
21:43 - 21:46
EN: and this is around two times your Initial Risk.
ZH: 现在利润大约是两倍初始风险
21:46 - 21:49
EN: It’s also about a 50% retracement of this selloff,
ZH: 这里也大约是左边下跌的50%反弹
21:49 - 21:56
EN: and it’s a test of the Moving Average, and we have a big tail
ZH: 反弹测试均线，K线有很长的上影线，是对这个低点的测试
21:53 - 21:56
EN: on the top of the bar, and it’s a breakout test of this low.
ZH: 反弹测试均线，K线有很长的上影线，是对这个低点的测试
21:56 - 22:00
EN: You can see the bulls have a strong bull breakout, tried to get a Higher Low,
ZH: 之前多头强势突破之后，尝试让低点抬高（继续上涨）
22:00 - 22:03
EN: and then we broke below that Higher Low and collapsed.
ZH: 但这个低点被跌破，然后崩盘
22:03 - 22:05
EN: So that is the breakout point.
ZH: 所以它是突破点
22:06 - 22:09
EN: This is therefore a resistance area.
ZH: 因此，这是一个阻力
22:09 - 22:11
EN: Test of the Moving Average, test of the breakout point,
ZH: 测试均线，测试突破点
22:11 - 22:13
EN: test of the 50% pullback.
ZH: 又是50%反弹
22:20 - 22:24
EN: We had a Parabolic Wedge on the open, and sometimes the market
ZH: 在开盘时有一个抛物线楔形顶
22:24 - 22:26
EN: just starts to form a lot of Parabolic Wedges.
ZH: 有时市场会不断地形成抛物线楔形
22:26 - 22:30
EN: They rarely look like Wedges, but it’s a very Tight Channel with three pushes.
ZH: 它们几乎完全没有楔形的形状， 但是在很窄的通道中有3次推动
22:30 - 22:33
EN: You could even argue that this is a Parabolic Wedge down
ZH: 所以你也可以说这里是抛物线楔形下跌——
22:33 - 22:39
EN: - one, pullback, two, pullback, three, or; one, pullback, two, pullback, three.
ZH: 1，反弹；2，反弹；3； 或者1，反弹；2，反弹；3；
22:39 - 22:43
EN: And we have a Wedge up – one, pause, two, pause, three.
ZH: 然后3推上涨——1，暂停；2，暂停；3
22:44 - 22:47
EN: And now here we have one push up, a pause,
ZH: 现在这里又有1，暂停；
22:47 - 22:50
EN: a second push up, a pause, a third push up.
ZH: 2，暂停；第3次推动
22:52 - 22:56
EN: That’s another reason to be thinking about taking partial profits.
ZH: 这是另一个考虑止盈一部分的原因
22:56 - 22:57
EN: A Trading Range is likely.
ZH: 因为（大背景）可能是震荡区间
22:57 - 23:01
EN: We’re fairly high up in the range, we’re testing the top of the Sell Climax,
ZH: 现在处于区间的顶部，测试了抛售高潮的起跌点
23:01 - 23:04
EN: and now we also have a Parabolic Wedge.
ZH: 而且还有抛物线楔形顶
23:08 - 23:09
EN: We have a bear trend,
ZH: 下降趋势
Slide 013
Time: 23:10
Bilingual Transcript
23:11 - 23:13
EN: and now we have some gap bars.
ZH: 多头制造了一些缺口K线
23:13 - 23:18
EN: A strong enough rally so that the bulls
ZH: 反弹足够强势，多头把一些K线完全放在了均线的上方
23:16 - 23:18
EN: have bars completely above the Moving Average.
ZH: 反弹足够强势，多头把一些K线完全放在了均线的上方
23:18 - 23:23
EN: There are gaps between the lows of the bar
ZH: K线最低点和均线之间有缺口，这里也有
23:20 - 23:23
EN: and the Moving Average, and then again here.
ZH: K线最低点和均线之间有缺口，这里也有
23:23 - 23:26
EN: When you start to get gap bars in a bear trend,
ZH: 如果多头在下降趋势中制造了缺口K线
23:26 - 23:28
EN: that means the bulls are pretty strong.
ZH: 代表多头已经变得很强壮
23:28 - 23:31
EN: They can put bars completely above the average price.
ZH: 他们有能力把K线完全放在平均价格的上方
23:32 - 23:36
EN: And when you get gap bars and the bear trend tries to resume,
ZH: 当你看到缺口K线，然后下降趋势恢复之后
23:36 - 23:39
EN: you’re usually going to try to get a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 通常会出现大反转的尝试
23:42 - 23:43
EN: 4 consecutive bear bars.
ZH: 连续4根阴线
23:43 - 23:51
EN: Even though there’s a good bull bar, a lot of traders will wait
ZH: 尽管有不错的做多信号，但很多交易者会等待第2做多入场点， 比如在这个十字星的上方，或者这根K线上方
23:47 - 23:51
EN: for a second entry buy, either above this doji or above this bar.
ZH: 尽管有不错的做多信号，但很多交易者会等待第2做多入场点， 比如在这个十字星的上方，或者这根K线上方
23:51 - 23:54
EN: Stop either below here or below here.
ZH: 止损放在这里，或这里
23:54 - 23:57
EN: This is a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 这是低点抬高的大反转
23:57 - 23:59
EN: It’s also a Wedge bull flag.
ZH: 也是一个楔形牛旗
23:59 - 24:04
EN: We have a bull breakout and three pushes down
ZH: 多头突破之后，3次下跌回调——1，反弹；2，反弹；3
24:01 - 24:04
EN: - one, pullback, two, pullback, three.
ZH: 多头突破之后，3次下跌回调——1，反弹；2，反弹；3
24:04 - 24:09
EN: Does not matter that the pullback from the first leg down went to a new high.
ZH: 尽管第1段下跌之后，价格创了新高
24:09 - 24:14
EN: When markets transition from a bull trend into a bull flag or a bear channel,
ZH: 当市场从上涨趋势过渡到牛旗或下降通道时，
24:14 - 24:18
EN: there’s often a time when you have components
ZH: 经常会同时包含上涨趋势和下降趋势的特征
24:17 - 24:18
EN: of both a bull trend and a bear trend.
ZH: 经常会同时包含上涨趋势和下降趋势的特征
24:18 - 24:21
EN: This is the start of a pullback, the bear trend,
ZH: 这是回调（小下降趋势）的开始
24:21 - 24:23
EN: yet the bull trend was still continuing.
ZH: 但上涨趋势也没有完全结束
24:23 - 24:25
EN: That’s fairly common.
ZH: 这是相当常见的
24:28 - 24:30
EN: A weak buy signal bar.
ZH: 弱做多信号K线
24:30 - 24:31
EN: We have a Micro Double Bottom.
ZH: 小双底
24:31 - 24:33
EN: We have a Wedge bull flag.
ZH: 楔形牛旗
24:34 - 24:36
EN: We have a pair of dojis, not very good.
ZH: 两根十字星，很一般
24:36 - 24:39
EN: The entry bar is okay, but look at the follow-through.
ZH: 入场K线还可以，但是看跟随——
24:39 - 24:44
EN: A Tight Trading Range, 4 consecutive dojis, 6 dojis in the past 7 bars.
ZH: 窄震荡区间，连续4个十字星， 过去7根K线中有6个都是十字星
24:44 - 24:47
EN: This does not look like the start of a strong bull trend.
ZH: 这看起来不像是一个强上涨趋势的开始
24:50 - 24:54
EN: Very tight range, a lot of small sideways bars, a lot of dojis.
ZH: 区间很窄，很多横盘的小K线，很多十字星
25:01 - 25:08
EN: Because of the absence of a strong rally, a lot of the bulls
ZH: 由于看不到强势的上涨，很多在这里买入的多头会对跟随感到失望
25:05 - 25:08
EN: who bought here will be disappointed by all of this follow-through.
ZH: 由于看不到强势的上涨，很多在这里买入的多头会对跟随感到失望
25:08 - 25:13
EN: Disappointment is a hallmark of a Trading Range, and instead of a bull trend,
ZH: 失望是震荡区间的信号，而不是上涨趋势的信号
25:13 - 25:18
EN: a lot of these traders are thinking that, well,
ZH: 很多交易者想到：好吧，也许只是震荡区间，而不是上涨趋势
25:15 - 25:18
EN: maybe we’re getting a Trading Range instead of a bull trend.
ZH: 很多交易者想到：好吧，也许只是震荡区间，而不是上涨趋势
25:18 - 25:22
EN: And if we get a test of the top of the range and a reversal down
ZH: 如果测试了区间上沿，然后开始反转下跌
25:22 - 25:26
EN: with a decent bear bar, it’s reasonable to exit longs.
ZH: 有好的阴线信号，多头离场是合理的
25:26 - 25:30
EN: Remember, when you take a Major Trend Reversal trade,
ZH: 当你押注一个大反转的机会时
25:30 - 25:33
EN: 40% chance you’re going to get a swing profit,
ZH: 40%的时候你可以赚到波段利润
25:33 - 25:39
EN: 60% chance you’re either going to get a small profit like this or a small loss.
ZH: 60%的时候你会像这样小赚，或者小亏
25:43 - 25:46
EN: For the bears, they see a bear trend, a rally attempt,
ZH: 对于空头来说，他们看到的是下降趋势中的反弹尝试
25:46 - 25:49
EN: and then a second rally attempt, both failing.
ZH: 然后第2次尝试上涨，又失败了
25:49 - 25:52
EN: They see this as a Double Top bear flag,
ZH: 空头把它看作双顶熊旗
25:52 - 25:54
EN: and they’re looking to sell a reversal down.
ZH: 他们想在反转下跌时卖出做空
25:54 - 25:58
EN: They see the Tight Trading Range has lasted about 40 bars,
ZH: 他们看到窄震荡区间持续了40多根K线
25:58 - 26:05
EN: and they’re going to conclude that the bull trend
ZH: 他们相信不会有上涨趋势，全都只是震荡区间中的上涨， 而不会形成趋势
26:01 - 26:05
EN: is not happening and that whatever rally we got simply got
ZH: 他们相信不会有上涨趋势，全都只是震荡区间中的上涨， 而不会形成趋势
26:05 - 26:07
EN: to a Trading Range and not a bull trend.
26:07 - 26:10
EN: The bears want to sell high, and here we have a Double Top
ZH: 空头想要在高位做空——这里是一个双顶，
26:10 - 26:11
EN: with a decent sell signal bar here.
ZH: 而且有好的做空信号K
26:11 - 26:14
EN: Micro Double Top – up, down, up, down
ZH: 小双顶——上涨，下跌，上涨，下跌
26:14 - 26:19
EN: - reasonable to short exactly where the bulls will get out.
ZH: 在多头离场的地方卖出做空是合理的
Slide 014
Time: 26:25
Bilingual Transcript
26:29 - 26:31
EN: Bear trend, bull breakout.
ZH: 下降趋势，多头突破
26:31 - 26:34
EN: Lower Low Major Trend Reversal, second entry buy.
ZH: 低点降低的大反转，第2做多入场点
26:34 - 26:38
EN: When you have a Lower Low Major Trend Reversal and the market rallies,
ZH: 低点降低的大反转，上涨
26:38 - 26:42
EN: it’s usually followed by a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 通常之后会出现低点抬高的大反转
26:42 - 26:44
EN: Here we have a lot of bear bars.
ZH: 这里有很多阴线
26:44 - 26:46
EN: The reversal up is probably minor.
ZH: 所以这个上涨大概率只是小反弹
26:46 - 26:48
EN: The bulls probably will need a Double Bottom,
ZH: 多头需要一个双底
26:48 - 26:51
EN: and here we have a Double Bottom Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 这里是低点抬高的双底大反转
26:56 - 26:58
EN: Break above the bear channel.
ZH: 突破下降通道
26:58 - 26:59
EN: Went up for about 10 bars.
ZH: 上涨了大约10根K线
26:59 - 27:03
EN: We have a resumption of the bear trend, and it’s failing repeatedly.
ZH: 下降趋势恢复，但跟随非常差
27:03 - 27:06
EN: The bulls took control, the bulls took control,
ZH: 多头制造了阳线，阳线
27:06 - 27:10
EN: and now they’re taking control a third time,
ZH: 现在是第3根阳线了，体积非常大，很漂亮
27:08 - 27:10
EN: and this time with a pretty good bull bar.
ZH: 现在是第3根阳线了，体积非常大，很漂亮
27:10 - 27:12
EN: It’s reasonable to take this buy or that buy.
ZH: 在这里，或这里买入是合理的
27:16 - 27:20
EN: If you did not take these buys, it’s also okay to take this buy.
ZH: 如果你没有在这些地方买入，也可以在这里买入
27:20 - 27:26
EN: However, as I said, when you have 3, 4, 5, 6 bear bars
ZH: 然而正如之前所说，当你看到这么窄的下降通道中有3、4、5、6根阴线
27:24 - 27:34
EN: in a Tight Channel this like, the resumption of the bull trend
ZH: 然而正如之前所说，当你看到这么窄的下降通道中有3、4、5、6根阴线 上涨的尝试更有可能是小反转，变成横盘震荡， 而不是强势地向上突破
27:28 - 27:34
EN: is probably going to be a minor reversal leading
ZH: 上涨的尝试更有可能是小反转，变成横盘震荡， 而不是强势地向上突破
27:31 - 27:34
EN: to a sideways move instead of a strong breakout.
ZH: 上涨的尝试更有可能是小反转，变成横盘震荡， 而不是强势地向上突破
27:35 - 27:38
EN: When you have this many bars down, usually you’re going to get
ZH: 这么多根K线跌下来，通常会有第2段下跌
27:38 - 27:43
EN: a second leg down and the bulls will need some kind
ZH: 这么多根K线跌下来，通常会有第2段下跌 所以多头至少需要某种双底，才能让上涨趋势恢复
27:39 - 27:43
EN: of a Double Bottom before they can get a resumption of the bull trend.
ZH: 所以多头至少需要某种双底，才能让上涨趋势恢复
27:47 - 27:51
EN: This is a Double Bottom, and the Double Bottom is a Higher Low.
ZH: 这是一个双底，而且低点略微抬高
27:51 - 27:54
EN: So you can either call this a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal,
ZH: 你可以把它看作低点抬高的大反转
27:54 - 27:57
EN: you can call this a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 也可以说它是低点抬高的大反转
27:57 - 27:59
EN: When we get a Double Bottom like this,
ZH: 当我看到这样的双底，
27:59 - 28:02
EN: I usually call it a Double Bottom Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 我通常称之为低点抬高的双底大反转
28:02 - 28:05
EN: And a decent buy signal bar here.
ZH: 这里有一个不错的做多信号K线
28:05 - 28:08
EN: You could also take the buy above here and get filled here,
ZH: 你也可以在它的上方挂突破买单，订单在这里成交，
28:08 - 28:11
EN: and put a stop probably below here, maybe below here.
ZH: 然后把止损放在这个低点，或这个低点的下方
Slide 015
Time: 28:15
Bilingual Transcript
28:19 - 28:21
EN: If you want you could also call it a Triangle.
ZH: 也可以把它看作三角形
28:21 - 28:25
EN: We have three pushes down – one, pullback, two, pullback, three
ZH: 有3次向下推动——1，反弹；2，反弹；3
28:25 - 28:29
EN: - and we got a bull breakout above the Triangle, but a terrible reversal down,
ZH: 向上突破了三角形，但立刻非常可怕地跌了回来
28:29 - 28:33
EN: and that makes a strong bull trend less likely.
ZH: 因此强上涨趋势的概率变小了 （注：因为这是震荡区间的特征）
28:38 - 28:40
EN: I began by talking about trailing stops.
ZH: 这节课我先是讲了追踪止损
Slide 016
Time: 28:40
Bilingual Transcript
28:40 - 28:44
EN: If the market goes your way and you have a strong breakout above a prior high,
ZH: 如果市场如预期一样上涨，并且强势突破创新高
28:44 - 28:50
EN: a lot of traders will raise their stop to below the bottom
ZH: 很多交易者会把止损抬高到最近一次强势突破的起涨点
28:48 - 28:50
EN: of that most recent strong breakout.
ZH: 很多交易者会把止损抬高到最近一次强势突破的起涨点
28:50 - 28:53
EN: That low then becomes a major Higher Low.
ZH: 那个低点就变成了一个重要的低点
28:53 - 28:57
EN: As long as the bull trend is forming a series of major Higher Lows,
ZH: 只要高点和低点都在不断抬高
28:57 - 29:02
EN: it’s still a bull trend, and therefore it’s reasonable
ZH: 上涨趋势就仍然成立，所以把止损放在重要低点下方是合理的
29:00 - 29:02
EN: to put your stops below those Higher Lows.
ZH: 上涨趋势就仍然成立，所以把止损放在重要低点下方是合理的
29:02 - 29:07
EN: If the market falls below those major Higher Lows, then it’s not a bull trend.
ZH: 如果市场跌破了这些重要的低点，那么上涨趋势就不再成立了
29:07 - 29:11
EN: You were holding long because you believed it’s in a bull trend,
ZH: 你买入做多的前提是，你认为它是上涨趋势
29:11 - 29:16
EN: and now you have proof that it’s not, and therefore it’s reasonable
ZH: 但现在证据表明它不再是上涨趋势， 所以合理的做法是先止损离场
29:14 - 29:16
EN: to get out below a major Higher Low.
ZH: 但现在证据表明它不再是上涨趋势， 所以合理的做法是先止损离场
29:17 - 29:23
EN: I also talked about how on the open, you can get Major Trend Reversal patterns
ZH: 我还讲了在开盘的时候，大反转结构不一定需要很多K线
29:21 - 29:23
EN: that do not have many bars.
ZH: 我还讲了在开盘的时候，大反转结构不一定需要很多K线
29:23 - 29:30
EN: The market can move very fast on the open, and a pattern that looks minor
ZH: 市场在开盘时的波动非常块，一个很小的结构—— 换句话说，这个结构没有很多K线——
29:27 - 29:30
EN: - in other words, a pattern that does not have many bars
ZH: 市场在开盘时的波动非常块，一个很小的结构—— 换句话说，这个结构没有很多K线——
29:30 - 29:34
EN: - can in fact lead to the low or high of the day.
ZH: 也有可能形成大反转 （注：原话是“形成当天的最高或最低点”）
29:34 - 29:36
EN: So do not be afraid to take those trades.
ZH: 所以不要因为害怕而错过了这些机会
29:41 - 29:42
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
29:42 - 29:44
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课
29:44 - 29:48
EN: This is the fourth of four videos on trading Major Trend Reversal Bottoms.
ZH: 底部大反转的4节课，到这里就全部讲完了