al-brooks-course
38A - Trading MTR Tops
Raw transcript and slide notes for 38A - Trading MTR Tops.
Overview
- Slides: 13
- Transcript segments: 379
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:06 - 00:10
EN: This is the first of four videos on trading Major Trend Reversal Tops.
ZH: 接下来的4节课，我们来讲顶部大反转结构
Slide 001
Time: 00:12
Bilingual Transcript
00:14 - 00:19
EN: The important thing about tops is that you need strong bears to make a reversal.
ZH: 顶部反转的关键是，需要强大的空头力量
00:20 - 00:24
EN: I’m also going to talk about the minimum targets that you should be considering.
ZH: 我也会讲到空头追求的最小目标在哪里
Slide 002
Time: 00:25
Bilingual Transcript
00:28 - 00:32
EN: When traders are looking for a Higher High Major Trend Reversal,
ZH: 高点抬高的大反转结构
00:32 - 00:35
EN: they need some evidence that the bears are reasonably strong.
ZH: 需要看到空头强势的证据
00:38 - 00:43
EN: Here we have a bull trend and a potential Higher High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 上涨趋势，潜在的高点抬高的大反转
00:50 - 00:50
EN: Look at this.
ZH: 看这里
00:50 - 00:54
EN: We have a rally lasting a couple of legs.
ZH: 几段上涨之后
00:54 - 00:55
EN: Third leg.
ZH: 第3推
00:55 - 00:58
EN: Chances are once the market’s Always In Long,
ZH: 当市场处于单边上涨的时候
00:58 - 01:05
EN: the first reversal down will be minor, which means it’ll become
ZH: 第1次下跌大概率只是小反转， 要么是牛旗，要么是震荡区间，而不是下降趋势
01:01 - 01:05
EN: either a bull flag or a Trading Range, not a bear trend.
ZH: 第1次下跌大概率只是小反转， 要么是牛旗，要么是震荡区间，而不是下降趋势
01:05 - 01:07
EN: Now we have another strong leg up,
ZH: 再次强势突破创新高
01:07 - 01:11
EN: and therefore any reversal down again will probably be minor.
ZH: 所以同样，任何下跌都只是小反转
01:11 - 01:12
EN: But look at this reversal.
ZH: 但是看这个回调
01:12 - 01:15
EN: It went sideways for about 15 bars or so,
ZH: 它横盘了大约15根K线左右
01:15 - 01:17
EN: and it broke below the bottom of the bull channel,
ZH: 跌破了上涨通道的下沿
01:18 - 01:22
EN: and we have a decent bear bar here and a decent bear bar here.
ZH: 这里有一根不错的阴线，这根阴线也很强
01:22 - 01:23
EN: Two legs down.
ZH: 两段下跌
01:23 - 01:27
EN: The bulls lost control of the market for a lot of bars,
ZH: 很长一段时间，多头失去了对市场的控制
01:27 - 01:30
EN: and the bears were strong enough to break below the Moving Average
ZH: 空头足够强大，可以跌破均线 （注：有两根K线完全处于均线下方，是缺口K线）
01:30 - 01:33
EN: and stop the bulls for about 15 or 20 bars.
ZH: 上涨趋势暂停了15~20根K线
01:34 - 01:37
EN: When that’s the case, that is enough Selling Pressure
ZH: 这里的卖压已经足够强
01:37 - 01:41
EN: so that traders will suspect that the next reversal attempt,
ZH: 所以交易者开始想：下一次反转的尝试
01:41 - 01:45
EN: instead of being minor leading to a bull flag, it might be major
ZH: 是否仍然是牛旗和小反转？
01:45 - 01:49
EN: and last 20 or more bars and go down for a swing.
ZH: 还是会变成持续至少20根K线的下跌波段（大反转）？
01:57 - 02:01
EN: In addition, not only did the bears stop the bulls for 20 bars,
ZH: 此外，空头不仅仅让上涨趋势停滞了20根K线
02:01 - 02:06
EN: they were strong enough to put a couple of bars completely
ZH: 他们还足够强大，可以将几根K线完全放在均线下方
02:04 - 02:06
EN: below the Moving Average.
ZH: 他们还足够强大，可以将几根K线完全放在均线下方
02:07 - 02:10
EN: There’s a gap between the high of this bar and the Moving Average,
ZH: 这根K线的高点和均线之间存在缺口
02:10 - 02:12
EN: a gap between the high of this bar and the Moving Average.
ZH: 这根K线的高点和均线之间也有缺口
02:12 - 02:19
EN: If the market’s in a bull trend and now the bears are getting strong enough
ZH: 市场处于上涨趋势，但现在空头可以把K线完全放在均线下方
02:16 - 02:19
EN: to put bars completely below the Moving Average,
ZH: 市场处于上涨趋势，但现在空头可以把K线完全放在均线下方
02:19 - 02:21
EN: then the bears are reasonably strong.
ZH: 说明他们变得相当强壮
02:21 - 02:25
EN: So yes, minor reversal and bull flag and bull trend resumption,
ZH: 所以，尽管这确实是小反转，是牛旗，上涨趋势恢复
02:25 - 02:30
EN: but after gap bars, the market usually tries to form a major reversal,
ZH: 但是在出现缺口K线之后，空头通常会尝试制造大反转
02:30 - 02:35
EN: and therefore traders will look to sell a reversal down
ZH: 所以当价格测试前期高点，然后反转下跌时， 交易者会入场做空
02:33 - 02:35
EN: from testing the bull trend high.
ZH: 所以当价格测试前期高点，然后反转下跌时， 交易者会入场做空
02:35 - 02:36
EN: Here’s the top of the bull trend.
ZH: 这里是之前上涨的最高点
02:37 - 02:40
EN: We’re breaking above it and the breakout’s failing.
ZH: 突破创新高，但很快就开始下跌
02:40 - 02:44
EN: Traders will sell below here, betting that there’s a 40% chance
ZH: 空头在这根阴线的下方卖出做空， 押注有40%的概率会发生大反转
02:44 - 02:53
EN: for a major reversal – a reversal down where the reward is
ZH: ——利润至少是风险的两倍，并且通常持续至少20根K线
02:49 - 02:53
EN: at least twice the risk, and usually lasting 20 or more bars.
ZH: ——利润至少是风险的两倍，并且通常持续至少20根K线
03:00 - 03:05
EN: Traders need the minor reversal to be strong if they’re going to start looking
ZH: 如果想要成功的大反转，首先需要足够强势的小反转
03:05 - 03:11
EN: for a major reversal, and it doesn’t have to lead to a big reversal down.
ZH: 这个小反转不一定要跌很多
03:11 - 03:16
EN: It can simply be the bears stopping the bulls
ZH: 可以只是横盘（阻止上涨）10~20根K线，比如像这里
03:14 - 03:16
EN: for 10 or 20 bars, as they did here.
ZH: 可以只是横盘（阻止上涨）10~20根K线，比如像这里
03:16 - 03:24
EN: That is enough strength on the part of the bears for traders to think
ZH: 这里空头的力量已经足够强大， 足以让交易者认为，下一次反转的尝试可能是大反转， 而不仅仅只是小反转
03:21 - 03:24
EN: that the next reversal attempt might be major and not just minor.
ZH: 足以让交易者认为，下一次反转的尝试可能是大反转， 而不仅仅只是小反转
03:29 - 03:31
EN: We have a Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 双底牛旗
Slide 003
Time: 03:30
Bilingual Transcript
03:31 - 03:35
EN: Every Double Bottom is a High 2, so a bull trend, bull breakout,
ZH: 每个双底都是高2； 上涨趋势，多头突破
03:36 - 03:40
EN: pullback, resumption, a Double Bottom, slightly Lower Low.
ZH: 回调，趋势恢复，地点略微降低的双底牛旗
03:47 - 03:52
EN: And when you get a Double Bottom bull flag, a High 2 bull flag 20 or more bars
ZH: 当你看到一个双底牛旗，或高2牛旗，持续了20根K线
03:52 - 03:56
EN: into a bull trend, late in a bull trend, you have to be thinking
ZH: 而且处于趋势的后期
03:56 - 03:59
EN: that the next leg up might be the final leg
ZH: 你必须要考虑到，下一段上涨可能是最后一涨
03:59 - 04:03
EN: and that the High 2 bull flag might become the final bull flag.
ZH: 而这个高2牛旗可能会成为末端牛旗
04:05 - 04:09
EN: The final leg here, we have a bull bar – not especially big,
ZH: 在这段上涨中，这根阳线——体积不算特别大
04:09 - 04:13
EN: bad follow-through – another good bull bar, bad follow-through.
ZH: 跟随一般； 大阳线，跟随也一般
04:13 - 04:16
EN: We have a third bull bar, bad follow-through.
ZH: 第3推，跟随不好
04:16 - 04:20
EN: So even though it’s a bull Micro Channel, no pullbacks, lasting about 8 bars,
ZH: 尽管这是一个上涨微通道，连续8根K线没有回调
04:21 - 04:25
EN: the rally is not as strong as you might think when you see a bull Micro Channel.
ZH: 但它实际上没有你想象的那么强势
04:26 - 04:28
EN: Whenever you get a bull bar and bad follow-through
ZH: 当你看到阳线之后的跟随不好，
04:28 - 04:37
EN: and you get several like that, the leg up is probably a bull leg in
ZH: 每次阳线之后都是这种情况的话， 这段上涨大概率会变成震荡区间，甚至有大反转的可能
04:33 - 04:37
EN: what will become a Trading Range and possibly a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 这段上涨大概率会变成震荡区间，甚至有大反转的可能
04:41 - 04:43
EN: We have a Double Top.
ZH: 双顶
04:43 - 04:45
EN: I said we have a Double Bottom; we also have a Double Top.
ZH: 下面有双底，上面有双顶
04:45 - 04:47
EN: The market tried to reverse here.
ZH: 尝试反转下跌
04:47 - 04:55
EN: Instead we broke out, and this rally with that bear bar
ZH: 最终向上突破了，但是这根阴线的出现， 可能代表这是一次假突破
04:52 - 04:55
EN: might be a failed breakout above the Double Top.
ZH: 最终向上突破了，但是这根阴线的出现， 可能代表这是一次假突破
04:55 - 04:58
EN: Anytime you have a Double Top and then a breakout
ZH: 每当一个双顶被向上突破
04:58 - 05:01
EN: that starts to reverse, it’s a type of a Wedge.
ZH: 然后很快反转下跌，那就是3推楔形的一种
05:01 - 05:05
EN: You have three pushes up – one, pullback, two for the Double Top,
ZH: 有3次向上的推动——1，回调，2，也就是双顶
05:05 - 05:08
EN: pullback, three – it’s three attempts to go higher.
ZH: 回调，3——这是第3推
05:08 - 05:12
EN: Even though it does not look like a Wedge at all, it’s the same forces
ZH: 尽管看上去完全没有楔形的形状
05:12 - 05:17
EN: that operate with a Wedge, and therefore you can expect
ZH: 但它和楔形顶的功能是一样的
05:17 - 05:20
EN: the same kind of reversal that you can expect with a Wedge.
ZH: 可以和楔形顶一样会发生反转
05:23 - 05:25
EN: There is a Wedge, in fact, here as well.
ZH: 事实上，这里也有一个3推楔形
05:27 - 05:32
EN: Rallied, sold off, rallied, sold off, and now we’re at the top of a channel.
ZH: 上涨，下跌；上涨，下跌；现在又来到了通道的上沿
05:32 - 05:35
EN: Again, if I drew a trend line along the bottom,
ZH: 如果我把通道下沿的趋势线画出来，
05:35 - 05:39
EN: it wouldn’t look very much like a Wedge, but it’s three pushes up
ZH: 它看上去并不是收敛的楔形，但这已经是第3推
05:39 - 05:42
EN: and we’re getting a reversal down from the top of the channel.
ZH: 而且价格正在从通道的上沿开始反转下跌
05:42 - 05:45
EN: And there’s also a Parabolic Wedge here as well.
ZH: 这里也有抛物线楔形的结构
05:45 - 05:50
EN: Bull bar, pause, bull bar, pause, bull bar, reversal.
ZH: 阳线，暂停；阳线，暂停；阳线，反转
05:50 - 05:52
EN: So this is a Wedge, and it’s within a larger Wedge,
ZH: 所以这也是3推，它处于一个更大的3推内部
05:52 - 05:59
EN: and then we have a breakout above a Double Top
ZH: 而且是突破双顶之后的反转下跌， 本身也是楔形的一种
05:55 - 05:59
EN: that looks like it’s reversing, and that is a type of Wedge as well.
ZH: 而且是突破双顶之后的反转下跌， 本身也是楔形的一种
05:59 - 06:03
EN: So smaller Wedge pattern inside of a larger Wedge pattern.
ZH: 所以是小楔形嵌套在大楔形的内部
06:03 - 06:05
EN: That means nested Wedges.
ZH: 也就是嵌套式楔形
06:05 - 06:09
EN: That has a higher probability of leading to a reversal.
ZH: 这有更高的概率会导致反转
06:12 - 06:15
EN: You can also draw a Wedge from the low.
ZH: 也可以从这个高点开始画楔形
06:15 - 06:19
EN: We have a leg up, pullback, second leg up, pullback, and a third leg up.
ZH: 第1段上涨，回调；第2段上涨，回调；第3段
06:19 - 06:22
EN: Again, does not look like a Wedge, but it’s three pushes up.
ZH: 它看上去也不像楔形，但已经是第3推
06:22 - 06:25
EN: Some computers will look at this as the Wedge.
ZH: 一些电脑程序会把它看作是楔形
06:25 - 06:27
EN: Other computers will say the Wedge is here.
ZH: 一些电脑程序会把它看作是楔形
06:27 - 06:30
EN: Even though this low is below this low
ZH: 尽管这个低点比它更低 （注：如果低点降低，理论上应该重新开始数3推）
06:30 - 06:38
EN: - in other words, the first high of the Wedge came
ZH: 换句话说，第1个高点在下降趋势还没结束之前就出现了； 但它仍然是3推楔形
06:34 - 06:38
EN: before the end of the bear trend – it’s still a Wedge.
ZH: 换句话说，第1个高点在下降趋势还没结束之前就出现了； 但它仍然是3推楔形
06:38 - 06:42
EN: Markets often transition from bear trends into bull trends,
ZH: 在下降趋势和上涨趋势之间，通常存在过渡阶段
06:42 - 06:46
EN: and during the transition they have components of both.
ZH: 在过渡阶段，它同时具有上涨和下跌的特征
06:46 - 06:50
EN: So yes, we’re still in a bear trend here, but some traders
ZH: 这里确实仍然处于下降趋势
06:50 - 06:53
EN: would say the bull trend began here before the bear trend ended.
ZH: 但你可以说，上涨趋势在下降趋势结束之前就开始了
06:53 - 06:55
EN: At least, that’s how I would look at this.
ZH: 这也是我的看法
06:58 - 07:01
EN: Some computers would also look at this as a Wedge.
ZH: 有的电脑程序甚至会把它看作是楔形
07:01 - 07:05
EN: A rally, a pullback – even though it’s a pullback below the bull breakout
ZH: 上涨，回调——尽管它跌破了这个起涨点
07:05 - 07:09
EN: - and then a second leg up and then a pullback and then a third leg up.
ZH: 然后第2段上涨，暂停；第3段
07:11 - 07:14
EN: As I said, this is also a Parabolic Wedge.
ZH: 刚才也讲到，这是抛物线楔形
07:15 - 07:18
EN: Many ways to draw a Wedge, all reversing at the same point.
ZH: 所以存在很多楔形结构，都在这个点开始反转下跌
07:18 - 07:24
EN: Nested Wedges increase the probability that you’ll get
ZH: 嵌套式楔形增加了会有几段下跌（至少是横盘）的概率
07:21 - 07:24
EN: at least a couple legs sideways to down.
ZH: 嵌套式楔形增加了会有几段下跌（至少是横盘）的概率
07:28 - 07:29
EN: We have a negative [Body] gap.
ZH: 这里有一个负缺口（实体缺口）
07:29 - 07:32
EN: We have a high here and we pulled back below it
ZH: 如果看这个最高点，回调到它的下方，
07:32 - 07:34
EN: and we pulled back below it a little bit as well.
ZH: 这里的回调也略微跌破了它
07:35 - 07:38
EN: Some overlap of this Trading Range with this Trading Range.
ZH: 所以这个震荡区间，和这个震荡区间，之间有一些重叠
07:40 - 07:43
EN: However, the overlap is not especially great,
ZH: 但是，只是影线有重叠 （注：K线的实体部分没有碰到）
07:43 - 07:46
EN: and therefore this can lead to a Measured Move up.
ZH: 所以仍然可以继续上涨到MM目标位
07:46 - 07:49
EN: Whenever you get a pullback below a breakout point,
ZH: 当价格回调到突破点下方的时候，
07:49 - 07:51
EN: I view that as a negative gap.
ZH: 我称之为负缺口
07:51 - 07:55
EN: So instead of an actual gap, I call it a negative [Body] gap.
ZH: 它并不是真正的缺口，所以我说它是负缺口，或者实体缺口
07:55 - 07:58
EN: Here’s an actual gap – this low, that high, no overlap.
ZH: 这里有真正的缺口——在这个低点， 和这个高点，之间没有碰到
07:58 - 08:02
EN: There’s a gap here between this low and the buy signal bar high.
ZH: 这个低点，和做多信号K线的高点之间，存在缺口
08:02 - 08:03
EN: That is a gap.
ZH: 那里有一个缺口
08:04 - 08:07
EN: Here, we have overlap between the breakout point and the pullbacks.
ZH: 而这里，在突破点和回调的最低点之间有重叠
08:07 - 08:08
EN: Negative [Body] gap.
ZH: 所以是负缺口（实体缺口）
08:08 - 08:11
EN: But it still often leads to a Measured Move,
ZH: 但市场仍然可以继续上涨到MM目标位
08:11 - 08:13
EN: and therefore I’m always drawing lines to see
ZH: 所以我总是会把目标位画出来
08:13 - 08:16
EN: how the market behaves near that resistance.
ZH: 并且观察市场在那个阻力位附近的行为 （注：多头在目标位卖出止盈，所以他们的目标是阻力）
08:16 - 08:18
EN: And you can see the market’s trying to reverse.
ZH: 而现在看到，市场正在反转下跌
Slide 004
Time: 08:20
Bilingual Transcript
08:25 - 08:29
EN: This is a good-looking sell signal bar, a bear bar closing on its low.
ZH: 阴线收在最低，它是不错的做空信号K线
08:30 - 08:35
EN: That further increases the probability
ZH: 进一步增加了至少会有小反转的概率
08:32 - 08:35
EN: that the bears will get at least a minor reversal.
ZH: 进一步增加了至少会有小反转的概率
08:43 - 08:48
EN: Selling here, you probably have about 40% chance of a swing down.
ZH: 在这里卖出做空，有40%的概率会赚到下跌的波段
08:48 - 08:50
EN: It’s a fairly strong bull trend here.
ZH: 左边的上涨相当强势
08:50 - 08:53
EN: We have about an 8 bar, 9 bar bull Micro Channel,
ZH: 是连续上涨了8根K线的微通道
08:54 - 08:56
EN: and we do not have a Micro Double Top.
ZH: 而现在还没有看到小双顶 （注：小双顶也就是第2做空入场点，胜率会更高）
08:56 - 09:03
EN: However, if you want higher probability, you wait,
ZH: 如果你想要更高的胜率，就等看到连续3~4根阴线之后再入场
09:00 - 09:03
EN: for maybe 3 or 4 consecutive bear bars.
ZH: 如果你想要更高的胜率，就等看到连续3~4根阴线之后再入场
09:03 - 09:07
EN: At this point we have a higher probability of at least a small second leg down.
ZH: 此时有更高的概率，至少会有小的第2段下跌
09:07 - 09:09
EN: It’s reasonable to take this short.
ZH: 在这里做空是合理的
09:09 - 09:11
EN: The risk is to just above the high of the bar.
ZH: 风险就在这个高点上方
09:11 - 09:15
EN: You might use a wider stop in case there’s one more small leg up,
ZH: 你也可以使用更宽的止损，以防还有一小段上涨
09:15 - 09:18
EN: but the risk is small compared to the potential reward.
ZH: 总之，和潜在的利润相比，风险是小的
09:18 - 09:21
EN: Even though the probability of a swing down is only 40%,
ZH: 即使出现下跌波段的概率只有40%
09:22 - 09:27
EN: the reward is sufficiently big to offset the lower probability.
ZH: 但利润足够大，弥补了胜率的不足
09:34 - 09:37
EN: The market’s clearly still Always In Long at this point,
ZH: 此时，市场明显仍然处于单边上涨
09:38 - 09:43
EN: and that is why the probability is only 40%
ZH: 所以说反转的成功率只有40%
09:41 - 09:43
EN: that the reversal will be successful.
ZH: 所以说反转的成功率只有40%
09:49 - 09:54
EN: If you wait for 3 or 4 consecutive bear bars or a pair of decent bear bars
ZH: 如果你等3~4根连续的阴线，或者连续两根大阴线收在最低
09:54 - 09:59
EN: closing on their lows and then sell either that close or above these bars,
ZH: 然后在它的收盘卖出做空，或者在K线上方挂限价卖单
09:59 - 10:08
EN: looking for at least a small second leg down, the probability can be 60%
ZH: 押注至少会有小的第2段下跌， 此时继续下跌的概率增长到了60%
10:03 - 10:08
EN: or more that you’ll get some kind of a swing down.
ZH: 押注至少会有小的第2段下跌， 此时继续下跌的概率增长到了60%
10:10 - 10:13
EN: At this point the market probably is Always In Short,
ZH: 市场可能已经进入单边下跌
10:13 - 10:16
EN: meaning that the bears have taken control
ZH: 也就是说空头已经掌控了市场
10:16 - 10:18
EN: and we’re probably going at least a little bit lower.
ZH: 大概率至少会再下跌一些
10:19 - 10:23
EN: If you short here, your stop is further away.
ZH: 如果你在这里入场做空，止损变大了
10:23 - 10:29
EN: Your risk is greater, your reward is less
ZH: 风险更大，而剩余的利润更少， 因为此时已经进入了下降趋势
10:25 - 10:29
EN: because you’re entering after the bear trend has already begun,
ZH: 风险更大，而剩余的利润更少， 因为此时已经进入了下降趋势
10:29 - 10:31
EN: but the probability of making money has gone up.
ZH: 但赚钱的概率变高了
10:31 - 10:33
EN: And that’s the tradeoff.
ZH: 这就是取舍
10:33 - 10:36
EN: Whenever you enter when the trade has higher probability,
ZH: 每当你在胜率更高的时候入场，
10:36 - 10:39
EN: your risk/reward is always worse.
ZH: 你的盈亏比通常都会降低
10:39 - 10:42
EN: You never get high probability with good risk/reward.
ZH: 很难同时拥有好的胜率和盈亏比
10:42 - 10:45
EN: You get one or the other, but never both.
ZH: 鱼和熊掌不可兼得
10:46 - 10:50
EN: There has to be a reason for an institution to take the other side of the trade.
ZH: 站在这笔交易对面的机构，也一定有他的优势
Slide 005
Time: 10:55
Bilingual Transcript
10:55 - 10:59
EN: Any time you take a trade, you have to have a plan on how to take profits.
ZH: 任何一笔交易，你都必须有止盈的计划
11:00 - 11:04
EN: I always operate with the idea of a minimum profit.
ZH: 我总是从最低利润的角度去思考
11:04 - 11:09
EN: What’s the smallest profit that I need to have a positive Trader’s Equation?
ZH: 最低利润要多少，才能让数学期望为正？
11:09 - 11:14
EN: What’s the smallest profit that I can go for
ZH: 最低利润要多少，这笔交易在数学上才有意义？
11:11 - 11:14
EN: so that the math makes sense and I should take the trade?
ZH: 最低利润要多少，这笔交易在数学上才有意义？
Slide 006
Time: 11:15
Bilingual Transcript
11:22 - 11:24
EN: We’re getting late in the day.
ZH: 离收盘越来越近
11:24 - 11:26
EN: Traders will look for reasons to take profits,
ZH: 交易者会找机会止盈
11:26 - 11:28
EN: especially since the rally is not particularly strong.
ZH: 尤其是因为上涨趋势并不是特别强势
11:36 - 11:41
EN: On any trade, the minimum target is always two times the Actual Risk.
ZH: 在任何交易中，利润的最低目标都是实际风险的两倍
11:41 - 11:45
EN: If you sold below the low of this bar, you entered on this bar,
ZH: 如果你在这根K线的低点下方挂突破卖单， 会在这根K线成交、入场
11:45 - 11:48
EN: you actually only had to risk to above the high of this bar.
ZH: 你实际上承担的风险，只是到这根K线的最高点而已
11:48 - 11:50
EN: So you risked very little.
ZH: 所以实际风险很小
11:51 - 11:57
EN: Mathematically it’s always reasonable to take profits
ZH: 从数学的角度，在两倍实际风险的地方止盈，总归是合理的
11:55 - 11:57
EN: at two times your Actual Risk.
ZH: 从数学的角度，在两倍实际风险的地方止盈，总归是合理的
11:57 - 12:04
EN: However, if two times your Actual Risk is smaller
ZH: 但是，如果实际风险的两倍小于剥头皮的最低利润， 那就不合理的
12:01 - 12:04
EN: than the minimum scalp, that does not make sense.
ZH: 但是，如果实际风险的两倍小于剥头皮的最低利润， 那就不合理的
12:04 - 12:08
EN: Also, the minimum reward is rarely the best reward.
ZH: 此外，最低目标往往不是最好的选择
12:08 - 12:12
EN: The minimum is just the minimum needed to make the Trader’s Equation positive.
ZH: 最低目标是让数学期望为正的最低值
12:12 - 12:17
EN: Like anything in life, going for a minimum is not always the best choice,
ZH: 但就和生活中的任何事情一样，追求最低目标通常不是最好的选择
12:17 - 12:22
EN: and if you’re taking profits consistently at the minimum level,
ZH: 如果你总是按照最低目标止盈，这不是一个好的做法
12:21 - 12:22
EN: that is not a good thing.
ZH: 如果你总是按照最低目标止盈，这不是一个好的做法
12:23 - 12:26
EN: When the Actual Risk is very small like this,
ZH: 像实际风险这么小的时候，
12:27 - 12:29
EN: it’s better to be looking at the Initial Risk.
ZH: 最好用初始风险（来测量目标位）
12:29 - 12:33
EN: If you sold below the low of this bar, your initial stop is
ZH: 如果你在这根K线的低点下方卖出，
12:33 - 12:36
EN: above its high, and that generates your Initial Risk.
ZH: 初始止损放在它的高点上方，这就是你的初始风险
12:36 - 12:38
EN: That’s your Initial Risk.
ZH: 初始风险是这么多
12:39 - 12:45
EN: And taking a reward, at least partial profits,
ZH: 在两倍初始风险的地方止盈至少一部分仓位， 在数学上是有意义的
12:42 - 12:45
EN: at two times your Initial Risk makes sense mathematically.
ZH: 在两倍初始风险的地方止盈至少一部分仓位， 在数学上是有意义的
12:45 - 12:51
EN: That’s better than two times Actual Risk
ZH: 比两倍实际风险更好——尤其当实际风险只有这么一点点的时候
12:48 - 12:51
EN: when the Actual Risk is tiny like it is here.
ZH: 比两倍实际风险更好——尤其当实际风险只有这么一点点的时候
12:53 - 12:56
EN: Also, you’re taking profits around a 50% pullback.
ZH: 另外，空头止盈的地方大约是50%回调
12:56 - 12:57
EN: The bull trend might resume.
ZH: 是（多头会买入）上涨趋势可能恢复的位置
12:58 - 13:01
EN: And you’re also taking profits at the Moving Average.
ZH: 也是回调到均线的时候止盈离场
13:01 - 13:05
EN: So it’s reasonable here to take profits at two times the Initial Risk.
ZH: 所以这里在两倍初始风险的地方止盈是合理的
13:05 - 13:08
EN: You’re also at the bottom of the final Buy Climax bar,
ZH: 这里也是最后抢购高潮大阳线的起涨点
13:08 - 13:12
EN: and the market often pauses or even resumes up at that point.
ZH: 在这个位置，市场经常止跌，甚至反弹
13:18 - 13:20
EN: We have a bear spike, a bear breakout.
ZH: 这里急速下跌，是空头突破
13:20 - 13:25
EN: Second push, third push, and now we’re getting a second reversal up.
ZH: 第2推，第3推，然后出现了第2次反转做多的入场点
13:25 - 13:31
EN: First reversal up, second reversal up, and we’re getting near this low,
ZH: 第1次反转上涨，第2次反转上涨； 价格接近前期的这个低点——最后一段上涨的起涨点
13:29 - 13:31
EN: the bottom of the final bull leg.
ZH: 第1次反转上涨，第2次反转上涨； 价格接近前期的这个低点——最后一段上涨的起涨点
13:31 - 13:32
EN: We might be entering a Trading Range.
ZH: 市场可能正在转变成震荡区间
13:32 - 13:34
EN: We’re also getting late in the day.
ZH: 而且已经领进收盘
13:34 - 13:38
EN: It’s reasonable to take profits here as well.
ZH: 在这里止盈也是合理的
13:41 - 13:44
EN: The final possibility is holding until the end of the session.
ZH: 还有一种选择是一直持有到收盘
13:44 - 13:50
EN: Here we have a Double Top bear flag, and we may get a collapse into the close.
ZH: 空头把它看作是双顶熊旗，有概率会在尾盘跳水
13:50 - 13:51
EN: We probably will not.
ZH: 大部分时候不会
13:51 - 13:56
EN: It looks like this was resistance.
ZH: 之前这里是阻力，所以下跌； 向上突破之后，阻力变成支撑、支撑
13:53 - 13:56
EN: We turned down, and then it became support, support.
ZH: 之前这里是阻力，所以下跌； 向上突破之后，阻力变成支撑、支撑
13:56 - 14:01
EN: We’re probably in a support level, and we probably will not break strongly down.
ZH: 所以这里是一个支撑位，大概率不会被轻易跌破
14:01 - 14:06
EN: But it’s reasonable to hold short until the close just in case we do.
ZH: 但空头在收盘前一直持有也是合理的， 确实存在尾盘跳水的可能性
14:07 - 14:11
EN: Theoretically if a bear got out above this high or that high
ZH: 理论上，如果一个空头在这里或这里离场了
14:11 - 14:14
EN: and he’s trading Always In, he always wants to stay in the market,
ZH: 但是他想要始终参与市场、按照单边趋势的方法交易，
14:14 - 14:17
EN: he has to sell again below a reasonably strong bear bar,
ZH: 他就需要在强势的阴线下方再次卖出做空
14:17 - 14:19
EN: which is below this bar.
ZH: 比如这根阴线
14:19 - 14:20
EN: The market’s still Always In Short.
ZH: 市场目前处于单边下跌
14:20 - 14:23
EN: It did not become Always In Long here.
ZH: 这里的反弹没有让市场进入单边上涨
14:23 - 14:26
EN: So if he’s trading Always In, he has to sell again here,
ZH: 一定要交易的话，他需要在这里再次做空
14:26 - 14:28
EN: and then he would get out at the end of the session.
ZH: 然后再收盘的时候离场
Slide 007
Time: 14:35
Bilingual Transcript
14:39 - 14:41
EN: Whenever there’s a third push up,
ZH: 每当出现3推上涨的时候，
14:41 - 14:43
EN: traders have to be prepared to sell a breakout.
ZH: 交易者都要考虑到加速突破失败的做空机会
14:43 - 14:46
EN: We’re trying to get a bull breakout above a bull channel.
ZH: 市场尝试加速突破上涨通道
14:46 - 14:50
EN: 75% chance it’s going to reverse within about 5 bars.
ZH: 75%的概率，它会在大约5根K线内反转
14:50 - 14:52
EN: Here, it reversed within a couple of bars.
ZH: 这里，两根K线之内就失败了
14:54 - 14:59
EN: If you have a channel that’s reasonably broad, the legs going down lasting
ZH: 如果你看到一个比较宽的通道， 每次回调下跌都持续5~10根K线
14:58 - 15:03
EN: 5 or 10 bars, then selling the reversal down makes sense.
ZH: 如果你看到一个比较宽的通道， 每次回调下跌都持续5~10根K线 那么做空、押注反转下跌是合理的
15:03 - 15:09
EN: If the channel up is extremely tight, like this,
ZH: 如果上涨通道很窄，比如像这里，那么就不能做空
15:07 - 15:09
EN: selling a reversal down does not make sense.
ZH: 如果上涨通道很窄，比如像这里，那么就不能做空
15:09 - 15:11
EN: Probably the reversal will be minor,
ZH: 因为大概率都只是小反转
15:11 - 15:14
EN: and the best the bears will get is sideways.
ZH: 最多就是横盘震荡
15:26 - 15:29
EN: Again, if the channel is very, very tight like this,
ZH: 再次强调，想这么窄的通道，
15:29 - 15:31
EN: the first reversal down is probably minor.
ZH: 第一次下跌大概率都是小回调
15:32 - 15:35
EN: You’re not going to make much profit if you make any profit at all.
ZH: 做空基本上赚不到钱
15:35 - 15:36
EN: The same right here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
15:36 - 15:37
EN: Probably not much profit.
ZH: 做空赚不到什么钱
15:38 - 15:44
EN: But here, the bear legs are lasting 15 bars, 5 or 10 bars,
ZH: 但这里，回调持续了15根K线； （而这里）只有5根K线
15:44 - 15:48
EN: and traders are making money selling at prior highs.
ZH: 并且限价单空头在赚钱——
15:48 - 15:51
EN: If they sold this high and sold more higher, they would make money.
ZH: 如果他们在这个高点挂限价卖单，然后逢高加仓卖出更多
15:51 - 15:54
EN: The pullback here fell below the breakout point.
ZH: 这里的回调跌破了这个高点 （注：空头初始仓位打平，上方加仓的赚）
15:54 - 15:57
EN: Chances are if you’re selling here above these highs,
ZH: 所以，如果你在前期高点上方卖出，比如这里
15:57 - 16:00
EN: at a minimum we’ll pull back below the breakout point.
ZH: 大概率至少会回调到前期的突破点下方
Slide 008
Time: 16:05
Bilingual Transcript
16:05 - 16:08
EN: We have a bull trend.
ZH: 上涨趋势，比较窄的通道
16:06 - 16:08
EN: Fairly Tight Bull Channel.
ZH: 上涨趋势，比较窄的通道
16:08 - 16:11
EN: We sold off about 10 bars or so.
ZH: 回调了大约10根K线
16:11 - 16:15
EN: Possibly this is a Double Top Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 这有可能是一个双顶，高点降低的大反转
16:16 - 16:18
EN: It’s reasonable to take that short.
ZH: 在这里做空是合理的
16:18 - 16:23
EN: It would be better if this bar had a bear body
ZH: 如果这根K线是阴线，而且左边的卖压更大的话就更好了
16:21 - 16:23
EN: and if we had more Selling Pressure.
ZH: 如果这根K线是阴线，而且左边的卖压更大的话就更好了
16:29 - 16:30
EN: Micro Double Top.
ZH: 小双顶
16:30 - 16:31
EN: That’s good.
ZH: （对空头而言）很好
16:31 - 16:33
EN: That increases the probability of success.
ZH: 增加了反转下跌的概率
16:33 - 16:39
EN: But this rally up to this bar is about 9 bars without a pullback.
ZH: 但这里上涨了大约9根K线，没有回调 （注：每根K线的低点都在抬高）
16:39 - 16:44
EN: This is the first reversal down, the first time a bar went
ZH: 这是第一次下跌——第一次有K线跌破前一根K线的低点
16:42 - 16:44
EN: below the low of the prior bar.
ZH: 这是第一次下跌——第一次有K线跌破前一根K线的低点
16:44 - 16:50
EN: That makes this a lower probability short, even though it’s a Micro Double Top
ZH: 所以即使这里有小双顶，有高点降低的大反转结构， 但做空的胜率并不高
16:48 - 16:50
EN: and a Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 所以即使这里有小双顶，有高点降低的大反转结构， 但做空的胜率并不高
16:57 - 16:59
EN: Bull channel, very tight.
ZH: 上涨通道，非常窄
16:59 - 17:04
EN: On a higher timeframe chart this would be a series of bull trend bars,
ZH: 在更高时间周期的K线图上，这些就是一连串的阳线
17:04 - 17:06
EN: and this would be a very brief breakout.
ZH: 而这里就只是非常短暂的回调
17:08 - 17:09
EN: We have 1 bear bar.
ZH: 只有1根（较大的）阴线
17:09 - 17:12
EN: If you take this 1 bear bar out of the chart,
ZH: 如果把这根阴线拿掉
17:12 - 17:14
EN: there’s really not much selling at all.
ZH: 那就几乎没有什么卖压了
17:19 - 17:27
EN: Again, a 10 bar bull Micro Channel – probably the first reversal down
ZH: 同样，将近10根K线的上涨微通道， 第1次下跌大概率只是小反转，多头会押注上涨趋势恢复
17:24 - 17:27
EN: will be minor and the bulls will try to get resumption up.
ZH: 同样，将近10根K线的上涨微通道， 第1次下跌大概率只是小反转，多头会押注上涨趋势恢复
17:28 - 17:32
EN: And then additionally, the sell signal bar has a bull body.
ZH: 另外，这个做空信号K是阳线
17:32 - 17:34
EN: Again, low probability sell.
ZH: 所以是低胜率的做空机会
17:39 - 17:42
EN: This bear breakout is below a Tight Trading Range,
ZH: 这根大阴线跌破了一个窄震荡区间
17:42 - 17:46
EN: but it’s a 1 bar bear breakout, and look at the follow-through bar.
ZH: 但突破只持续了1根K线，跟随不好
17:46 - 17:49
EN: The next bar has a bull body and the bar after that has a bull body.
ZH: 后面跟随的两根K线都是阳线
17:49 - 17:51
EN: This looks like a failed bear breakout.
ZH: 看上去像是一次失败的突破
17:51 - 17:54
EN: That is not much Selling Pressure.
ZH: 所以卖压并不大
17:54 - 17:57
EN: We went sideways for about 10 bars, but the bars are small
ZH: 市场横盘了十几根K线，但体积都很小
17:57 - 17:59
EN: and the pullback is small as well.
ZH: 回调的幅度也很小
18:00 - 18:03
EN: Therefore, there’s not much sign that the bears are particularly strong.
ZH: 因此，没有能够表明空头特别强大的证据
18:07 - 18:11
EN: If you want higher probability, better to wait for more Selling Pressure
ZH: 如果你想要更高的胜率，最好等待更大的卖压，
18:11 - 18:15
EN: or for a strong bear breakout and then sell
ZH: 或者等看到强势的空头突破再卖出
18:13 - 18:15
EN: after you see a very big bear breakout.
ZH: 或者等看到强势的空头突破再卖出
18:17 - 18:18
EN: And you can see what happened.
ZH: 可以看到，接下来的行情
18:18 - 18:23
EN: Instead of a reversal down, we have a small Double Bottom bull flag
ZH: 没有反转下跌，而是形成了一个小的双底牛旗，
Slide 009
Time: 18:20
Bilingual Transcript
18:23 - 18:24
EN: and trend resumption up.
ZH: 然后上涨趋势恢复了
18:32 - 18:37
EN: If you had shorted below this bull bar, the market’s still Always In Long.
ZH: 如果你在这个阳线下方做空，此时市场仍然处于单边上涨
18:37 - 18:39
EN: It never became short here.
ZH: 市场从未进入过单边下跌
18:39 - 18:41
EN: The bears did not get follow-through.
ZH: 空头的阴线后面没有跟随
18:41 - 18:47
EN: And therefore if you sold below here, you have to exit above a bull bar.
ZH: 因此，如果你在它的下方卖出做空， 就必须在阳线的上方离场
18:47 - 18:50
EN: We have a Double Bottom bull flag and trend resumption up.
ZH: 双底牛旗，上涨趋势恢复
18:50 - 18:54
EN: We have a bull flag here, a break above the bull flag,
ZH: 这里是牛旗，向上突破
18:54 - 18:56
EN: and then a small bull flag after this breakout.
ZH: 然后形成了一个小牛旗
18:57 - 18:59
EN: You have to get out of your shorts here
ZH: 空头必须在这根阳线上方离场
18:59 - 19:02
EN: because this is exactly where bulls will get long again.
ZH: 因为这正是多头会再次买入的信号
19:02 - 19:06
EN: If the bulls exited below this Tight Trading Range with this bear bar,
ZH: 如果多头在大阴线跌破窄震荡区间的时候离场了，
19:06 - 19:09
EN: they’ll buy again above a bull bar – above here or above here.
ZH: 他们会在阳线上方再次买入——比如这里，这里
19:09 - 19:14
EN: If the bulls exited below this Micro Double Top, it’s still Always In Long.
ZH: 如果多头在这个小双顶的下方离场了， 但此时仍然是上涨趋势
19:14 - 19:17
EN: Therefore, they have to buy again above a bull bar,
ZH: 因此，他们必须在阳线上方再次买入
19:17 - 19:18
EN: and they have a bull bar here.
ZH: 比如这根大阳线
19:19 - 19:24
EN: You cannot continue to hold short if the market
ZH: 如果市场告诉你它在上涨、只能做多， 那么你就不能再继续做空了
19:22 - 19:24
EN: is telling the Always In bulls to get long.
ZH: 如果市场告诉你它在上涨、只能做多， 那么你就不能再继续做空了
Slide 010
Time: 19:30
Bilingual Transcript
19:32 - 19:35
EN: Bull trend, bear breakout, Higher High.
ZH: 上涨趋势，回调，再次突破创新高
19:35 - 19:40
EN: Is this a Higher High Major Trend Reversal? Well, look at this channel.
ZH: 这是高点抬高的大反转结构吗？ 仔细看看这个通道
19:40 - 19:42
EN: We’re up for 30 more bars.
ZH: 上涨了30多根K线
19:42 - 19:45
EN: I think you have to start the process over and look at this
ZH: 所以必须重新有小反转到大反转的过程
19:45 - 19:48
EN: as a new bull trend – and this is not much Selling Pressure,
ZH: 把它看作一个新的上涨趋势——这里没有多少卖压
19:48 - 19:51
EN: and therefore this is probably a minor reversal.
ZH: 所以大概率只是小反转
19:51 - 19:53
EN: You can say it’s a second entry short.
ZH: 你可以说这是第2做空入场点——
19:53 - 19:56
EN: It went below this bull bar, tried to resume with this doji,
ZH: 跌破这根阴线（低1），这个十字星有过反弹，
19:56 - 19:58
EN: and now we’re getting a second entry short.
ZH: 然后现在是低2（第2做空入场点）
19:58 - 20:01
EN: I would not call this a Higher High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 我不会把它看作是高点抬高的大反转
20:01 - 20:03
EN: I would call it a minor reversal,
ZH: 我会认为他是小反转
20:03 - 20:07
EN: and more likely we’re going to go sideways rather than down.
ZH: 更有可能会横盘，而不是下跌
20:14 - 20:16
EN: 20 bars in a very Tight Bull Channel.
ZH: 窄上涨通道持续了20多根K线
20:16 - 20:22
EN: I would call this a resumption of the bull trend, and I would view this
ZH: 上涨趋势的恢复，而且我会把它看作是新的上涨趋势
20:20 - 20:30
EN: as a new bull trend, and therefore I would need another sign
ZH: 上涨趋势的恢复，而且我会把它看作是新的上涨趋势 我需要看到空头制造强势的第1次小反转， 然后上涨趋势恢复，在前期高点再次失败、反转下跌
20:24 - 20:30
EN: of strength by the bears, a resumption of the bull trend
ZH: 我需要看到空头制造强势的第1次小反转， 然后上涨趋势恢复，在前期高点再次失败、反转下跌
20:27 - 20:30
EN: and a failure around the prior high.
ZH: 我需要看到空头制造强势的第1次小反转， 然后上涨趋势恢复，在前期高点再次失败、反转下跌
20:31 - 20:35
EN: This reversal is more likely minor, and it probably will become a bull flag
ZH: 这个反转更有可能只是小回调，会变成牛旗
20:35 - 20:37
EN: and the bull trend will probably resume.
ZH: 然后上涨趋势恢复
20:42 - 20:45
EN: Whenever you’ve got a trend resumption lasting 20 or more bars,
ZH: 如果之前的趋势恢复，而新的趋势又持续了超过20根K线
20:45 - 20:47
EN: start the process over again.
ZH: 就需要重新开始这个过程
20:47 - 20:51
EN: You have to again look for some sign of strength by the bears.
ZH: 你必须再次等待空头变得强势的信号
Slide 011
Time: 20:55
Bilingual Transcript
21:07 - 21:11
EN: If you did sell this and you were stopped out within 5 bars
ZH: 如果你在这里入场做空了，然后几根K线之后止损
21:11 - 21:13
EN: and then there’s another sell signal later,
ZH: 在上方又出现了一个好的做空信号
21:13 - 21:17
EN: that would be a higher probability sell – but that’s not what’s happening here.
ZH: 那个时候做空的胜率会更高——但这里不是这种情况
21:17 - 21:18
EN: At least, not yet.
ZH: 至少，目前还没发生
21:18 - 21:21
EN: This is a strong bull trend, a Tight Bull Channel.
ZH: 这是一个强上涨趋势，窄通道
21:21 - 21:23
EN: Chances are we’re going higher.
ZH: 大概率还会继续上涨
21:24 - 21:30
EN: Eventually every trend ends; however, there’s no reasonable sign of a top yet,
ZH: 最终，每个趋势都会结束； 然而，目前还没有合理的顶部信号
21:30 - 21:34
EN: and a lot of times the market will make several attempts
ZH: 很多很多反转的尝试都失败了，尽管最后会有真的大反转
21:33 - 21:34
EN: to reverse before it succeeds.
ZH: 很多很多反转的尝试都失败了，尽管最后会有真的大反转
21:34 - 21:38
EN: Tried to reverse here, here, here, again here,
ZH: 在这里，这里，这里，还有这里尝试反转
21:38 - 21:42
EN: but none of it is strong enough to lead to a trend reversal.
ZH: 但它们都不够强势，不足以逆转趋势
Slide 012
Time: 21:45
Bilingual Transcript
21:46 - 21:47
EN: Now, this is good for the bears.
ZH: 但是这些，对空头来说是好事
21:48 - 21:50
EN: They have a strong leg down lasting 10
ZH: 强势反转下跌了10根K线
21:50 - 21:54
EN: or so bars with many bear bars, some big bear bars.
ZH: 其中很多阴线，体积较大
21:55 - 22:00
EN: After this, traders will look to sell a Major Trend Reversal around this high.
ZH: 看到这段下跌之后，交易者会在前期高点附近关注大反转的做空机会
22:00 - 22:03
EN: Maybe here, but you got 3 bull bars, 1 pretty big.
ZH: 这里可以做空吗？左边是连续3根阳线，其中1根的体积非常大
22:03 - 22:06
EN: Maybe here, 3 more bull bars.
ZH: 这里呢？也是连续的阳线
22:06 - 22:07
EN: Not very good.
ZH: 所以不是特别好的机会
22:07 - 22:10
EN: But here, we have a bear bar closing on its low.
ZH: 但在这里，有一个阴线收在最低
22:10 - 22:14
EN: We have another bear bar closing on its low, Micro Double Top, and a Wedge.
ZH: 很快，又有一根大阴线收在最低，它们组成了小双顶； 而且也有楔形通道的结构
22:14 - 22:19
EN: This would be a higher probability short for a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 在这里做空，押注大反转，胜率就比之前要高
22:26 - 22:30
EN: Reasonable to sell on a stop below the low of that big bear bar.
ZH: 在那个大阴线的低点下方挂突破卖单去做空，是合理的
22:30 - 22:33
EN: We have a Micro Double Top and we have a Wedge Higher High,
ZH: 小双顶，楔形上涨，高点抬高（的大反转结构）
22:33 - 22:36
EN: and we have good Selling Pressure on the part of the bears,
ZH: 之前的回调体现了良好的卖压
22:36 - 22:39
EN: and we have three pushes up – one, two, three.
ZH: 还有大的3推结构——1，2，3
22:39 - 22:45
EN: Reasonably good breakout below the bull trend line, and trend resumption up.
ZH: 强势地跌破了上涨趋势线，然后上涨趋势恢复
22:45 - 22:52
EN: Even though we have a lot of bull bars, we’re getting some hesitation
ZH: 尽管仍然有很多阳线，但在上涨过程中有停滞， 而且这里有小的3推结构
22:49 - 22:52
EN: on the way up, and we have a Wedge rally.
ZH: 尽管仍然有很多阳线，但在上涨过程中有停滞， 而且这里有小的3推结构
22:56 - 23:01
EN: If you do sell below this bear bar, it’s reasonable to put your stop
ZH: 如果你在这根阴线的下方卖出做空， 把止损放在这个高点的上方是合理的
23:00 - 23:01
EN: just above the high of that bar.
ZH: 如果你在这根阴线的下方卖出做空， 把止损放在这个高点的上方是合理的
23:01 - 23:08
EN: That is your Initial Risk, from your entry
ZH: 从你的入场点，到止损的距离，就是你的初始止损
23:04 - 23:08
EN: below this bear bar right here, to your stop just above.
ZH: 从你的入场点，到止损的距离，就是你的初始止损
23:08 - 23:11
EN: In this particular case, that’s 10 ticks.
ZH: 在这个案例中，止损距离是10 ticks
23:17 - 23:20
EN: This is a fairly Tight Channel and a new leg up,
ZH: 这是一个窄上涨通道，是新的上涨波段
23:20 - 23:23
EN: but it’s within a broader channel,
ZH: 但它位于一个更宽的通道内部
23:23 - 23:27
EN: and you’re getting much more Selling Pressure – here, here, here.
ZH: 而且卖压变大了——这里，这里，这里
23:28 - 23:33
EN: Therefore, there’s a higher probability
ZH: 因此，空头制造大反转的成功率变高了——
23:29 - 23:33
EN: that the bears will finally get a major reversal.
ZH: 因此，空头制造大反转的成功率变高了——
23:33 - 23:35
EN: A couple legs and 20 or more bars down.
ZH: 几段下跌，持续20根K线或更多
23:39 - 23:45
EN: Lots of prominent tails, all representing balance
ZH: 很多长上影线，说明多空双方的力量开始变得均衡
23:44 - 23:45
EN: between the bulls and the bears.
ZH: 很多长上影线，说明多空双方的力量开始变得均衡
23:45 - 23:47
EN: Bulls are selling at the highs of a lot of these bars.
ZH: 多头逢高卖出止盈
23:47 - 23:50
EN: Bears are selling at prior highs.
ZH: 空头在前期高点卖出做空
23:50 - 23:53
EN: We’re getting increasing Selling Pressure, and a nested Wedge.
ZH: 卖压变大，而且有嵌套式楔形的结构
23:53 - 23:57
EN: We have a Wedge, one, two, three, and we’re reversing down.
ZH: 楔形顶——1，2，3，并且在反转下跌
23:57 - 24:02
EN: You could also draw the Wedge one, two, three,
ZH: 也可以这样看——1，2，3
24:02 - 24:04
EN: trying to get a bull breakout above the Wedge.
ZH: 尝试向上加速突破
24:04 - 24:10
EN: You can draw the Wedge one, two, or two and three, or one, two, three.
ZH: 也可以这样看——1，2，3；或者1，2，3
24:15 - 24:19
EN: I talked about tops needing strong bear bars.
ZH: 这节课，我主要讲了： 顶部结构需要有强势的大阴线才更加可靠
Slide 013
Time: 24:15
Bilingual Transcript
24:19 - 24:23
EN: They need some evidence that the bears are strong enough to take control.
ZH: 需要证据来表明空头变得足够强壮、足以掌控局面
24:24 - 24:27
EN: And then I talked about minimum targets when you’re taking profits.
ZH: 然后我讲到了止盈时的最低目标
24:27 - 24:31
EN: You should always go for at least two times your Actual Risk,
ZH: 目标应该至少是实际风险的两倍
24:31 - 24:38
EN: and if your Actual Risk is small, then go for two times Initial Risk
ZH: 如果实际风险太小，那么就在两倍初始风险的地方止盈部分或全部仓位
24:36 - 24:38
EN: to take partial or full profits.
ZH: 如果实际风险太小，那么就在两倍初始风险的地方止盈部分或全部仓位
24:43 - 24:44
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
24:44 - 24:46
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
24:46 - 24:51
EN: This is the first of four videos on trading Major Trend Reversal Tops.
ZH: 顶部大反转结构的第1节课，就先讲到这里