al-brooks-course
30C - Trader’s Equation and Probability
Raw transcript and slide notes for 30C - Trader’s Equation and Probability.
Overview
- Slides: 22
- Transcript segments: 623
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:10
EN: This is the third of five videos on the Trader’s Equation and probability.
ZH: 这是数学期望和概率的第3节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:12
Bilingual Transcript
00:14 - 00:18
EN: I would like to begin by talking a little bit about the Z-Score,
ZH: 我首先会讲一下Z分数 （注：数学上，Z = 【X - X的平均数】/ 标准差）
00:18 - 00:24
EN: which is a mathematical way to measure how profitable a strategy is,
ZH: 这是衡量策略盈利能力的一种数学方法
00:25 - 00:28
EN: and then I want to talk a little bit about probability.
ZH: 然后我再讲一讲概率
00:28 - 00:35
EN: Of the three variables that a trader needs to understand
ZH: 在构建交易时，交易者需要理解的三个变量中 （风险、利润和概率）
00:31 - 00:35
EN: when structuring a trade (risk, reward, and probability),
ZH: 在构建交易时，交易者需要理解的三个变量中 （风险、利润和概率）
00:35 - 00:37
EN: probability is the most important.
ZH: 概率是最重要的
Slide 002
Time: 00:38
Bilingual Transcript
00:41 - 00:46
EN: A Z-Score, it’s a measure of how good your system is.
ZH: Z分数是衡量交易系统好坏的一种方法
00:46 - 00:51
EN: It’s used by quantitative analysts (quants) when they design systems.
ZH: 量化分析师在设计交易系统时会用到它
00:51 - 00:54
EN: As a trader, you do not need to know anything about your Z-Score,
ZH: 作为交易者，了解你的Z分数不是必要的
00:54 - 00:59
EN: but if you want some better mathematical understanding of how good your method
ZH: 但如果你想从数学上更好地了解你的交易策略好不好
00:59 - 01:02
EN: of trading is, the Z-Score is one measure that you can use.
ZH: Z分数是你可以使用的一个衡量标准
01:02 - 01:06
EN: It’s basically the number of standard deviations from a mean.
ZH: 它是偏离平均值的标准差数
01:08 - 01:14
EN: This is the formula, and most of you are not going
ZH: 这是公式，大多数人不会对其中的数学部分感兴趣 （注：数学专业狂喜）
01:12 - 01:14
EN: to be interested in the mathematics of it.
ZH: 这是公式，大多数人不会对其中的数学部分感兴趣 （注：数学专业狂喜）
01:14 - 01:18
EN: N, the total number of trades in the series that you’re examining.
ZH: N是你所想要测试系列中的交易总数
01:18 - 01:22
EN: R, the total number of winning or losing streaks in the series.
ZH: R是系列中连胜或连败的总次数
01:22 - 01:25
EN: For example, if you have two consecutive winners, that’s a winning streak.
ZH: 例如，如果你连续两笔交易赚钱，那就是一次连胜
01:25 - 01:29
EN: If you have seven consecutive losers, that’s a losing streak.
ZH: 如果你连续7笔交易亏钱，那就是一次连败
01:29 - 01:32
EN: It doesn’t matter how many are in the streak; it’s just the number of streaks.
ZH: 每次连胜/连败中的数量不重要， 重要的只是一共有多少连胜、连败
01:32 - 01:35
EN: And then W, the total number of winning trades,
ZH: 然后W是盈利交易的总数
01:35 - 01:38
EN: and L, the total number of losing trades.
ZH: L是亏损交易的总数
01:42 - 01:45
EN: A Z-Score measures just how reliable your system is.
ZH: Z分数衡量你的交易系统有多可靠
01:45 - 01:50
EN: Can you trust your system going forward? If you have a high Z-Score,
ZH: 你能信任你的交易系统吗？ 如果你的Z分数很高，
01:50 - 01:54
EN: then you have a much better chance of making money going forward.
ZH: 那么你以后稳定赚钱的机会就更大了
01:54 - 02:00
EN: If you have a low Z-Score, you have a much higher risk
ZH: 如果你的Z分数很低，那么你亏钱、爆仓的风险就更大
01:57 - 02:00
EN: of losing your money and losing your account.
ZH: 如果你的Z分数很低，那么你亏钱、爆仓的风险就更大
Slide 003
Time: 02:05
Bilingual Transcript
02:05 - 02:11
EN: I want to show you this chart, and I want to show you a good way
ZH: 让我来给你看这张图，我想告诉你什么是好的交易方法， 什么是坏的交易方法
02:08 - 02:11
EN: to trade it and a bad way to trade it.
ZH: 让我来给你看这张图，我想告诉你什么是好的交易方法， 什么是坏的交易方法
02:11 - 02:14
EN: For example, let’s say you begin by scalping for a reward
ZH: 例如，假设你在反转的第2入场点开仓，
02:14 - 02:18
EN: that is one times your risk on second entry reversals.
ZH: 做剥头皮交易，利润目标是风险的一倍
02:18 - 02:22
EN: For example, you buy a High 2 bull flag or you sell a Low 2 bear flag.
ZH: 比如，在高2牛旗做多，或者在低2熊旗做空
02:23 - 02:25
EN: Here are some sample entries.
ZH: 这是一些入场点的示例
02:25 - 02:29
EN: Here’s a first entry, there’s the second entry, so you sell on the second entry.
ZH: 这里是第1入场点，这里是第2入场点， 所以你在第2入场点卖出做空
02:29 - 02:33
EN: Here’s a first entry, here’s a second entry, so you buy on the second entry.
ZH: 这里是第1入场点，这里是第2入场点， 所以你在第2次入场点买入做多
02:33 - 02:36
EN: Again, first, second, a High 2 bull flag.
ZH: 同样，第1，第2，高2牛旗
02:36 - 02:39
EN: High 1, High 2, a second entry buy.
ZH: 高1，高2，第2买入点
02:39 - 02:42
EN: A pullback, High 1, High 2.
ZH: 回调，高1，高2
02:42 - 02:46
EN: This is the High 2 here, so you get long there, and then again, High 1, High 2.
ZH: 这里是高2，所以你在这里做多； 同样，高1，高2
02:46 - 02:50
EN: On the way down we have a Double Top, second entry short,
ZH: 这里有一个双顶，是第2做空入场点
02:50 - 02:52
EN: a Low 2 bull flag, second entry.
ZH: 低2熊旗，第2入场点
02:52 - 02:55
EN: A Low 1 on this bar, a Low 2 on that bar.
ZH: 这根K线是低1，那根K线是低2
02:55 - 02:57
EN: All the way down.
ZH: 一路下跌做空
02:57 - 03:01
EN: Here we have a High 1, High 2 for the reversal up.
ZH: 这里有一个高1，高2的反转上涨
03:05 - 03:07
EN: Now, this system has a very high Z-Score
ZH: 现在，这个系统有一个非常高的Z分数
03:07 - 03:09
EN: because it has a high winning percentage.
ZH: 因为它的胜率很高
03:09 - 03:12
EN: 11 of the 12 trades on this chart are winners,
ZH: 这张图上的12笔交易中有11笔是盈利的
03:12 - 03:15
EN: and all the winners are about the same size.
ZH: 而且每一笔交易的利润都差不多
03:15 - 03:19
EN: Both of those things indicate that you have a very consistent way of trading,
ZH: 这两点都表明你的交易系统非常一致
03:19 - 03:23
EN: and therefore a much better chance of making a profit going forward.
ZH: 因此，以后长期稳定盈利的机会更大
03:26 - 03:30
EN: The past results are a good predictor
ZH: 过去的结果是对未来的一个很好的预测
03:28 - 03:30
EN: of what you’ll expect to see in the future.
ZH: 过去的结果是对未来的一个很好的预测
03:30 - 03:32
EN: In other words, what you’re doing is good.
ZH: 换句话说，你走在正确的道路上
03:32 - 03:37
EN: You can miss some trades, but you’re confident that you still can make money.
ZH: 就算错过一些交易，但你仍然有信心可以赚钱
Slide 004
Time: 03:40
Bilingual Transcript
03:43 - 03:45
EN: Every now and then you’ll hear traders talk
ZH: 你时不时会听到交易者谈论
03:45 - 03:49
EN: about a “blown account” or “ruin,” risk of ruin.
ZH: “账户爆仓”或“破产”的风险
03:49 - 03:54
EN: How much risk do you have of blowing your account? A blown account simply means
ZH: 你有多大的风险会爆仓？
03:54 - 03:58
EN: that your account no longer has enough equity to meet margin requirements.
ZH: 爆仓就是指账户里的钱不足以维持券商保证金的要求了
03:58 - 04:01
EN: Your broker will not let you trade unless you put more money in your account.
ZH: 除非你在账户中存入更多的钱，否则券商就不让你交易
04:01 - 04:05
EN: It can mean that you lost all the money in your account,
ZH: 这可能意味着你失去了账户中的所有资金
04:05 - 04:12
EN: and it can mean that you lost so much money that you lost more money than is
ZH: 甚至亏损超出了账户中的资金量，倒欠券商很多钱， 需要还钱给券商
04:09 - 04:12
EN: in the account and you have to send your broker even more money.
ZH: 甚至亏损超出了账户中的资金量，倒欠券商很多钱， 需要还钱给券商
04:12 - 04:16
EN: However, the minimum that you need for your account to be ruined
ZH: 总之，爆仓的最低标准是，
04:16 - 04:21
EN: or blown is for the equity to have fallen so low that your broker
ZH: 你账户里的钱太少了，
04:21 - 04:25
EN: will no longer let you trade unless you put more money in your account.
ZH: 券商不允许你继续交易，除非你往账户中存更多的钱
04:29 - 04:34
EN: When you have a high Z-Score, the risk of blowing up your account is small,
ZH: 如果你的Z分数很高，那么爆仓的风险就很小
04:34 - 04:37
EN: and therefore you can risk more per trade.
ZH: 因此你可以在每笔交易中冒更大的风险
04:41 - 04:45
EN: A best Z-Score would be about 5, which is extremely rare,
ZH: 最好的Z分数大约是5，这极为罕见，
04:45 - 04:49
EN: but outstanding scalpers can get a score that high.
ZH: 但是优秀的剥头皮交易者可以获得这么高的分数
04:49 - 04:52
EN: A really good Z-Score is 2 to 3.
ZH: Z分数在2~3之间就足够好了
04:53 - 04:57
EN: In general, if you have a very good system, a very good Z-Score,
ZH: 通常来说，如果你有一个非常好的系统，Z分数很高
04:57 - 05:00
EN: you can risk about 2% of your account on every trade that you take.
ZH: 那么每一笔交易你可以冒账户总资金2%的风险
05:00 - 05:06
EN: The lower your Z-Score, the smaller percentage
ZH: Z分数越低，每一笔交易应该冒的风险就越低
05:03 - 05:06
EN: of your account you should risk on a trade.
ZH: Z分数越低，每一笔交易应该冒的风险就越低
Slide 005
Time: 05:10
Bilingual Transcript
05:11 - 05:14
EN: Here’s another system using the same chart.
ZH: 同样是这张图，用另一个系统来交易
05:14 - 05:19
EN: Instead of buying second entry reversals or High 2 bull flags
ZH: 不再是第2反转入场点——高2牛旗做多，低2熊旗做空；
05:17 - 05:28
EN: and selling Low 2 bear flags, let’s say instead you bought
ZH: 不再是第2反转入场点——高2牛旗做多，低2熊旗做空； 假设新的做法是：突破前10根K线的高点做多， 跌破前10根K线的低点做空
05:21 - 05:28
EN: at the high of the prior 10 bars, and you reversed to short
ZH: 假设新的做法是：突破前10根K线的高点做多， 跌破前10根K线的低点做空
05:25 - 05:28
EN: below the low of the past 10 bars.
ZH: 假设新的做法是：突破前10根K线的高点做多， 跌破前10根K线的低点做空
05:30 - 05:39
EN: Broke to the low of the past 10 bars, you sold, and then you reversed to long
ZH: 跌破前10根K线的低点，所以做空； 突破了前10根K线的高点，反手做多； 显然你亏钱了
05:35 - 05:39
EN: at the high of the next 10 bars, and you lost money, obviously.
ZH: 突破了前10根K线的高点，反手做多； 显然你亏钱了
05:39 - 05:41
EN: Then we have a new low, so you sell here.
ZH: 然后跌到了新低，所以在这里做空
05:41 - 05:43
EN: Another loss.
ZH: 又亏钱了
05:43 - 05:45
EN: A new high over the past 10 bars, you buy.
ZH: 突破了前10根K线的高点，买入
05:45 - 05:48
EN: You have a small win because this is where you exit,
ZH: 只赚了一点点钱，你在这里离场——
05:48 - 05:50
EN: below the low of the past 10 bars.
ZH: 因为跌破了前10根K线的低点
05:50 - 05:52
EN: And then look at this.
ZH: 然后看这一笔交易
05:52 - 05:57
EN: You have a very big win, and it probably offset most or all of the prior losses,
ZH: 你一下子赚了很多钱，它可能完全弥补了之前大部分， 甚至全部的亏损
05:57 - 06:00
EN: and therefore the strategy is a profitable strategy.
ZH: 所以这个策略仍然是盈利的
06:03 - 06:08
EN: However, it’s a bad approach to trading because it has a very low Z-Score.
ZH: 然而，这个交易策略很糟糕，因为它的Z分数非常低
06:08 - 06:10
EN: It has a very low winning percentage.
ZH: 它的胜率非常低
06:10 - 06:14
EN: You only had one significant win, and almost all of the profit – in fact,
ZH: 你只有一次大赚，几乎所有的利润——
06:14 - 06:19
EN: pretty much all of the profit came from a single trade, and that’s dangerous.
ZH: 事实上，所有的利润都来自这一笔交易，这很危险
06:19 - 06:23
EN: Let’s say this is a 5-minute chart, and you had to go
ZH: 假设这是5分钟K线图，而你不得不去医院看病
06:21 - 06:23
EN: to a doctor’s appointment right here.
ZH: 假设这是5分钟K线图，而你不得不去医院看病
06:23 - 06:27
EN: Then you would have taken one, two, three, four trades so far today,
ZH: 那么你今天已经做了1、2、3、4笔交易，
06:27 - 06:29
EN: and you would’ve missed this trade.
ZH: 然后错过了这一笔机会
06:29 - 06:33
EN: Let’s say it’s a daily chart, and let’s say you’re taking all these trades
ZH: 假设这是日K线，假设你做了所有的这些交易，
06:33 - 06:37
EN: and you’re losing, losing, losing, and you’re hoping for this big win,
ZH: 而你一直在亏损，亏损，亏损， 你希望这次可以大赚
06:37 - 06:41
EN: and let’s say you went on vacation right here for two weeks,
ZH: 但是你去度假了两周，错过了这次大赚的机会 （注：或者，亏的没信心/没钱了，机会来了）
06:39 - 06:41
EN: and then you missed the big win.
ZH: 但是你去度假了两周，错过了这次大赚的机会 （注：或者，亏的没信心/没钱了，机会来了）
06:42 - 06:47
EN: That’s a big, big problem if you have a system
ZH: 如果在你的交易系统中，大部分利润都来自于某一笔交易， 那是一个大问题
06:45 - 06:47
EN: where most of your profit comes from a single win.
ZH: 如果在你的交易系统中，大部分利润都来自于某一笔交易， 那是一个大问题
06:47 - 06:51
EN: There’s a much higher risk of blowing your account.
ZH: 有很大的风险会爆仓
Slide 006
Time: 06:55
Bilingual Transcript
06:56 - 07:02
EN: Any system that needs one big win to make the system profitable is a bad system.
ZH: 任何需要一次大赚才能盈利的系统都是糟糕的系统
07:02 - 07:07
EN: There are many brokerage firms that allow you to design and test systems.
ZH: 有很多券商允许你设计和测试交易系统
07:07 - 07:11
EN: A very important part when you analyze the results of your systems
ZH: 在分析系统结果时，一个非常重要的部分是：
07:11 - 07:18
EN: is to pay attention to whether or not most of the profit comes
ZH: 是否大部分利润都来自于1、2或3笔交易
07:15 - 07:18
EN: from a single trade or two or three trades.
ZH: 是否大部分利润都来自于1、2或3笔交易
07:18 - 07:22
EN: If you need one or two big trades for the system to be profitable,
ZH: 如果你的系统需要一次或两次大赚，才能盈利，
07:22 - 07:24
EN: it’s a bad system and you should not trade it
ZH: 那它就是一个糟糕的系统，你不应该使用它
07:24 - 07:26
EN: - even though when you look at the results,
ZH: 尽管在你看最后的结果时
07:26 - 07:28
EN: it’ll say that you made money on the system.
ZH: 显示整体是盈利的
07:28 - 07:31
EN: You may even have made a lot of money on the system.
ZH: 甚至可能显示这个系统赚了很多钱
07:31 - 07:35
EN: But if it all comes from a single trade, your risk of ruin is very high,
ZH: 但如果所有的利润都来自单次交易，那么爆仓的风险就很高
07:35 - 07:41
EN: and you probably will eventually lose your account if you continue
ZH: 如果你继续按照这个系统交易， 你最终会失去你的账户
07:39 - 07:46
EN: to trade this system, because you will miss too many of the big trades
ZH: 如果你继续按照这个系统交易， 你最终会失去你的账户 因为你会错过很多大赚的机会， 这样很多亏损就无法被弥补
07:43 - 07:46
EN: that you need to offset all the prior losses.
ZH: 因为你会错过很多大赚的机会， 这样很多亏损就无法被弥补
07:50 - 07:53
EN: If you miss this one big trade in this series of trades,
ZH: 如果你在这一系列交易中错过了这笔大赚，
07:53 - 07:55
EN: your system loses money.
ZH: 你的系统就是亏损的
07:58 - 08:03
EN: Another problem with a system where all the profit comes
ZH: 另一个问题是，如果系统的所有利润都来自某一笔交易，
08:01 - 08:10
EN: from a single trade is it’s hard to wait through bar after bar after bar
ZH: 另一个问题是，如果系统的所有利润都来自某一笔交易， 那么心理上，就很难在连续的亏损之后， 继续对大赚抱有希望
08:06 - 08:10
EN: and loss after loss after loss, hoping for the one big trade.
ZH: 那么心理上，就很难在连续的亏损之后， 继续对大赚抱有希望
08:10 - 08:12
EN: It’s hard to take the next trade.
ZH: 甚至你不想再做下一笔交易
08:12 - 08:15
EN: You look back and say, “Gosh, I’ve been losing a lot.
ZH: 回过头看之前的交易，你心想： “天哪，已经亏了这么多钱…
08:15 - 08:19
EN: Maybe I’d better slow down on my trading,” and you’ll end up missing
ZH: 也许我应该先静一静。“ 然后你就错过了你所需要的，
08:19 - 08:24
EN: the one great trade that you need to reverse all
ZH: 能够一下逆转前期所有亏损的、 让系统最终整体盈利的那一笔大赚
08:22 - 08:24
EN: of the losses and to make the system profitable.
ZH: 能够一下逆转前期所有亏损的、 让系统最终整体盈利的那一笔大赚
08:29 - 08:36
EN: A low Z-Score means that the chance of blowing up your account is great,
ZH: Z分数低意味着爆仓的可能性很大， 说明你的交易系统很糟糕
Slide 007
Time: 08:30
Bilingual Transcript
08:33 - 08:36
EN: and your system is bad.
ZH: Z分数低意味着爆仓的可能性很大， 说明你的交易系统很糟糕
08:38 - 08:42
EN: You have a low winning percentage – in other words, most trades are losers.
ZH: 你的胜率太低——换句话说，大多数交易都是亏损的
08:42 - 08:45
EN: You have a few big winners, but more big losing trades,
ZH: 只有某几笔交易大赚，但更多交易大亏
08:45 - 08:54
EN: and you’re too dependent upon one or two outstanding trades
ZH: 你过于依赖某一两笔出色的交易， 抵消所有的亏损并使系统盈利
08:50 - 08:54
EN: to offset all of the losses and make the system profitable.
ZH: 你过于依赖某一两笔出色的交易， 抵消所有的亏损并使系统盈利
08:54 - 08:58
EN: Not only do you have to take the trade, you have to manage it correctly,
ZH: 而且不仅仅是开仓，还需要正确地管理
08:58 - 09:00
EN: and that’s hard to do as well.
ZH: 这也很难做到
09:04 - 09:11
EN: The result is if you analyze the standard deviation
ZH: 结果是，如果你分析交易结果的标准差，标准差非常大 （注：说明不稳定）
09:08 - 09:11
EN: of your trading results, the standard deviation is very big.
ZH: 结果是，如果你分析交易结果的标准差，标准差非常大 （注：说明不稳定）
09:11 - 09:14
EN: You have some very small trades, some very big trades,
ZH: 有时小赚小亏，有时大赚大亏，
09:14 - 09:16
EN: and that is a very dangerous system.
ZH: 这就是一个非常危险的交易系统
09:16 - 09:17
EN: It’s unreliable.
ZH: 它不可靠
09:18 - 09:23
EN: If you do try trading a system like this, you should trade very, very small.
ZH: 如果你一定要尝试这样的交易系统， 你应该用非常非常小的仓位去做
09:23 - 09:27
EN: Most traders should never trade a system where you need one
ZH: 大多数交易者永远不应该依赖某一两次大赚，
09:27 - 09:32
EN: or two big trades to offset a lot of losses, because you’re going to lose money.
ZH: 来抵消大量的亏损，因为最终你会亏钱
09:32 - 09:35
EN: The odds are just overwhelming that you’re going to lose.
ZH: 你亏损的概率太大了
Slide 008
Time: 09:40
Bilingual Transcript
09:40 - 09:45
EN: Any system that a beginner trades, he should trade small
ZH: 任何新手的交易系统，都应该用小仓位，
09:45 - 09:48
EN: because that will reduce the chances of him losing his account.
ZH: 因为这会减小他失去账户的概率
09:48 - 09:52
EN: In general, if a beginner can trade small enough
ZH: 通常来说，如果新手可以交易足够小的仓位，
09:52 - 09:57
EN: to risk 1% of his account on each trade, that is a good starting point.
ZH: 每笔交易冒账户1%的风险，这是一个好的开始
09:57 - 10:02
EN: For example, if you have a $10,000 account, try to risk $100
ZH: 例如，如果你有一个1万美元的账户， 试着每笔交易冒100美元的风险
10:01 - 10:05
EN: or so on each trade, and not more or not much more.
ZH: 例如，如果你有一个1万美元的账户， 试着每笔交易冒100美元的风险 而不是冒更多，或多很多的风险
10:09 - 10:12
EN: When you’re starting out, you’re always going to lose,
ZH: 当你刚开始时，你肯定会亏钱，
10:12 - 10:17
EN: but if you can trade small enough, the cost of learning is not so bad.
ZH: 但如果你交易得足够小，学习的成本就不会那么高
10:17 - 10:22
EN: Even if you have a great system starting out, which you probably will not have,
ZH: 即使你一开始有一个很棒的系统——大概率不会，
10:22 - 10:26
EN: you’re still going to lose because you probably
ZH: 你仍然会亏损，因为你不知道怎么正确地管理
10:24 - 10:26
EN: will not manage the trades correctly.
ZH: 你仍然会亏损，因为你不知道怎么正确地管理
Slide 009
Time: 10:30
Bilingual Transcript
10:31 - 10:35
EN: I mentioned that if you have a $10,000 account and you want to risk
ZH: 刚才我说，如果你有一个1万美元的账户
10:35 - 10:39
EN: about 1% per trade, you would be risking about $100,
ZH: 每一笔交易冒1%，也就是100美金的风险，
10:39 - 10:42
EN: which is a stop of about 2 points in the E-Mini.
ZH: 在ES中，大约是2个点的止损
10:42 - 10:47
EN: Even if you have a $10,000 account and your broker might allow you
ZH: 即使你账户里只有1万美元，但券商可能会
10:47 - 10:51
EN: to trade three or four E-Mini contracts, that would generate too much risk,
ZH: 允许你做3~4手合约，这会产生太大的风险
10:51 - 10:54
EN: and therefore you should be trading only one contract.
ZH: 因此你应该只交易1手合约
10:56 - 11:00
EN: In general, traders should trade the “I don’t care” size.
ZH: 通常来说，交易者应该用“不在乎”的仓位进行交易
11:00 - 11:03
EN: They should trade so small that they don’t care if they lose.
ZH: 应该用小到亏了也不在乎的仓位进行交易
11:03 - 11:07
EN: All they care about is, “Am I doing the right thing? Am I trading correctly?
ZH: 这样就能够专注于“我是否做了正确的事？
11:07 - 11:09
EN: Am I managing my trade correctly?
ZH: 我是否正确地管理了这笔交易？
11:09 - 11:13
EN: Are my setups and entries and exits all logical?”
ZH: 我的计划、入场和离场是否合乎逻辑？”
11:13 - 11:15
EN: And that allows you to practice doing the right thing
ZH: 所以你可以专心练习做正确的事，
11:15 - 11:17
EN: without worrying about money.
ZH: 而不是担心金钱
11:17 - 11:21
EN: You cannot get rich trading the “I don’t care” size;
ZH: 你不可能通过“不在乎”的仓位致富，
11:21 - 11:25
EN: however, you can learn how to trade very well with minimum cost.
ZH: 然而，你可以用最低的成本，学习如何正确地交易
11:26 - 11:29
EN: Even when you become a consistently profitable trader,
ZH: 即使你日后成为了一个稳定盈利的交易员，
11:29 - 11:32
EN: it’s better to be trading the “I don’t care” size
ZH: 最好仍然使用“不在乎”的仓位进行交易
11:32 - 11:34
EN: because you want to be doing this for a career.
ZH: 因为你想把交易变成你的职业
11:34 - 11:37
EN: I’ve been doing this for 30 years, and you have to be happy,
ZH: 我已经做了30多年交易，重点是要做得开心，
11:37 - 11:41
EN: and you have to be comfortable, and it’s not fun to be worried all the time.
ZH: 必须要内心舒适，而每天提心吊胆并不好玩
Slide 010
Time: 11:43
Bilingual Transcript
11:47 - 11:52
EN: If you have a $10,000 account and you’re a Forex trader and you want
ZH: 如果你有一个1万美元的账户，你在交易外汇，
11:52 - 11:55
EN: to risk no more than $100 in the euro versus the dollar,
ZH: 你不想冒超过100美元的风险
11:55 - 12:00
EN: then you can use a 100 pip stop and you can trade 10,000 units.
ZH: 那么你可以设置100 pips的止损，每次交易1万手 （注：0.01 * 10,000 = 100）
12:00 - 12:02
EN: That would keep you under the $100 risk.
ZH: 这样每笔交易的亏损不会超过100美金
12:05 - 12:11
EN: Instead, you could use a 20 pip stop and trade 50,000 units – or even better,
ZH: 或者，你可以设置20 pips的止损，每次交易5万手； 更好的做法是，
12:11 - 12:16
EN: begin trading only 10,000 units so that your risk is only $20 per trade.
ZH: 每次交易1万手，这样你每笔交易只冒20美金的风险，
12:16 - 12:19
EN: That’s one of the great advantages of the Forex market.
ZH: 这是外汇市场的好处
12:19 - 12:23
EN: Most brokers will allow you to trade very small sizes,
ZH: 平台允许你用非常小的仓位交易
12:23 - 12:33
EN: which reduces your risk per trade, and your cost of learning is
ZH: 这减少了你每笔交易的风险， 因此学习成本要小的多， 更容易用完全“不在乎”的仓位进行交易
12:27 - 12:33
EN: therefore much less and it’s easier to trade a size where you really don’t care,
ZH: 因此学习成本要小的多， 更容易用完全“不在乎”的仓位进行交易
12:33 - 12:37
EN: or you care so little that you’re able to do what you need to do
ZH: 或者只有一点点在乎，仍然能够专注做正确的事
12:37 - 12:40
EN: and develop a track record, a style of trading that you trust.
ZH: 然后记录交易的成果，逐渐形成你可以信赖的交易风格
12:40 - 12:43
EN: And once you’re at that point where you can consistently make money,
ZH: 一旦你达到那个能够稳定盈利的境界，
12:43 - 12:45
EN: even if it’s a small amount of money,
ZH: 就算只是稳定赚很少的钱，
12:45 - 12:48
EN: then you can begin to increase your position size.
ZH: 你就可以慢慢加大仓位
12:52 - 12:56
EN: Of these two choices, trading with a 100 pip stop
ZH: 在这两个选择中，用100 pips的止损，
12:56 - 12:58
EN: or a 20 pip stop, both are good.
ZH: 或者20 pips的止损，两者都不错
12:58 - 13:02
EN: They’re both good “I don’t care” sizes, and they allow you
ZH: 它们都是“不在乎”的仓位，
13:02 - 13:05
EN: to practice doing the right thing without worrying about money.
ZH: 都让你专注练习做正确的事，而不是担心金钱
Slide 011
Time: 13:10
Bilingual Transcript
13:10 - 13:17
EN: I’ve talked many times about the three variables
ZH: 我多次谈到交易者需要考虑的三个变量： 风险、利润和概率
13:13 - 13:17
EN: that traders have to consider: risk, reward, and probability.
ZH: 我多次谈到交易者需要考虑的三个变量： 风险、利润和概率
13:17 - 13:19
EN: You can look at it as two variables.
ZH: 你可以把它缩减成两个变量——
13:19 - 13:24
EN: You can say risk/reward ratio, one variable,
ZH: 一个是盈亏比，另一个是概率
13:22 - 13:24
EN: and probability, the other variable.
ZH: 一个是盈亏比，另一个是概率
13:24 - 13:30
EN: Probability is the most important because it’s the one
ZH: 概率最重要，因为它最不确定
13:27 - 13:30
EN: that is the hardest to know with any certainty.
ZH: 概率最重要，因为它最不确定
13:31 - 13:32
EN: You always know what your risk is.
ZH: 你当然知道风险是多少
13:32 - 13:34
EN: It’s the distance to your stop.
ZH: 就是到止损的距离
13:34 - 13:37
EN: You also always know what your reward is.
ZH: 你也一定知道利润是多少，
13:37 - 13:40
EN: It’s the distance to your minimum profit target.
ZH: 就是到止盈目标位的距离
13:40 - 13:42
EN: Probability is much more difficult.
ZH: 而概率要难得多
Slide 012
Time: 13:45
Bilingual Transcript
13:49 - 13:54
EN: Probability, I think, is the main reason
ZH: 我认为，概率，就是新手赚不到钱的主要原因
13:52 - 13:54
EN: why it’s so hard for beginners to make money.
ZH: 我认为，概率，就是新手赚不到钱的主要原因
13:54 - 13:59
EN: That lack of certainty confuses traders, and it scares traders,
ZH: 这种不确定性让你感到困扰，让你感到害怕，
13:59 - 14:01
EN: and they end up making a lot of mistakes.
ZH: 于是不断地犯很多错误
14:05 - 14:09
EN: For example, a trader watches a breakout and they watch an additional breakout,
ZH: 例如，一个交易者看到突破， 然后看到再次突破
14:09 - 14:13
EN: and now they see a bull bar closing on its high, and they think,
ZH: 现在他们看到一根阳线收在最高，他们认为：
14:13 - 14:16
EN: “Wow. I’ve seen enough proof that the market’s going up.
ZH: “哇！我已经看到了足够多的证据，证明市场在上涨
14:16 - 14:17
EN: Maybe I’ll finally buy here.”
ZH: 我要在这里买入”
14:17 - 14:19
EN: That’s a common beginner mistake.
ZH: 这是新手常见的错误
14:19 - 14:22
EN: We’re starting to get dojis and bear bars.
ZH: 已经开始出现阴线和十字星
14:22 - 14:24
EN: We have a big tail on top of this bar.
ZH: 这根K线有很长的上影线
14:24 - 14:30
EN: This is a Tight Trading Range, and the big bull bar is forcing you to buy
ZH: 这是一个窄震荡区间， 这根阳线迫使你在窄区间的顶部买入
14:28 - 14:34
EN: at the top of a Tight Trading Range after three legs up and a bull
ZH: 这是一个窄震荡区间， 这根阳线迫使你在窄区间的顶部买入 而且已经是第3推了——1，或者1，2，3
14:31 - 14:34
EN: - one or one, and then two, three.
ZH: 而且已经是第3推了——1，或者1，2，3
14:34 - 14:35
EN: Strong breakout.
ZH: 强势突破
14:35 - 14:37
EN: You expect at least one more leg up.
ZH: 预期至少还有一小段上涨
14:37 - 14:44
EN: However, this big tail and then these 2 bear bars increases the chances
ZH: 然而，这个长上影线和这两根阴线， 增加了不会再大涨的可能性
14:41 - 14:44
EN: that we’re not going to get much more than one leg up.
ZH: 然而，这个长上影线和这两根阴线， 增加了不会再大涨的可能性
14:45 - 14:48
EN: Beginners thought this was a high probability buy,
ZH: 新手认为这是高胜率的买点
14:48 - 14:54
EN: when in fact it was a low probability buy, and the bull trend
ZH: 而实际上胜率不高， 因为上涨趋势很可能正在转变成震荡区间
14:52 - 14:54
EN: was probably transitioning into a Trading Range.
ZH: 而实际上胜率不高， 因为上涨趋势很可能正在转变成震荡区间
14:54 - 14:58
EN: Experts were selling here, and they would’ve sold here as well,
ZH: 高手在这里卖出，也会在这里卖出，
14:58 - 15:01
EN: expecting that the market is no longer in a bull trend.
ZH: 预期市场不再是上涨趋势
15:01 - 15:04
EN: It’s in the early stages of a Trading Range.
ZH: 它处于震荡区间的早期阶段
15:04 - 15:10
EN: The Trading Range bottom could’ve been here, but it could be all the way
ZH: 震荡区间的底部可能是这里， 也可能是整个上涨趋势的起点
15:08 - 15:10
EN: down here at the bottom of the bull trend, which it turned out to be.
ZH: 震荡区间的底部可能是这里， 也可能是整个上涨趋势的起点
15:10 - 15:12
EN: We got a reversal.
ZH: 反转下跌
15:12 - 15:13
EN: Spike, pullback, channel.
ZH: 急速下跌，反弹，进入通道
15:14 - 15:17
EN: Beginners tend to buy too late.
ZH: 新手往往太晚买入 （注：买在顶部，被套牢）
15:17 - 15:19
EN: Sometimes they buy too early.
ZH: 有时他们买得太早 （注：下降趋势很强，不是好的反转机会）
15:19 - 15:22
EN: For example, they might buy here, thinking a Double Bottom.
ZH: 例如，他们可能会在这里买入，认为这是双底——
15:22 - 15:25
EN: Sell Climax and Double Bottom with this or with that.
ZH: 抛售高潮，和它或它形成双底
15:25 - 15:28
EN: They buy too early, they buy too late.
ZH: 有时买得太早，有时买得太晚
15:28 - 15:31
EN: Both are causes of losses.
ZH: 这两者都是亏损的原因
15:32 - 15:37
EN: Another problem with probability is beginners often miss really great trades
ZH: 另一个与概率相关的原因是， 是新手经常错过非常棒的交易机会
15:37 - 15:40
EN: because they’re afraid to risk too much.
ZH: 因为他们害怕冒的风险太大
15:40 - 15:44
EN: Here we have a series of bear bars, maybe 10 bars down without a bull body.
ZH: 这里有一系列阴线，连续下跌了10根K线，没有阳线
15:44 - 15:48
EN: We have a big bear breakout and a second bear bar closing near its low.
ZH: 大阴线跌破，第2根也是阴线收在低位
15:48 - 15:51
EN: This is a high probability short, if you sell the close of this bar,
ZH: 在这根K线的收盘卖出，这是高胜率的做空机会
15:51 - 15:53
EN: that you’re going to make some money.
ZH: 很有可能可以赚钱
15:53 - 15:56
EN: You could’ve gotten out here and made a little bit,
ZH: 你可以在这里赚快钱离场
15:56 - 15:59
EN: or you could’ve held all the way down here and gotten out down here.
ZH: 也可以一路持有到这里，然后在这里离场
15:59 - 16:04
EN: This is a high probability trade, but a lot of traders starting out
ZH: 这是一笔高胜率的交易，但很多刚开始的新手不敢这么做
16:04 - 16:06
EN: will not take it because they know their stop is up here,
ZH: 因为他们知道止损在这里
16:06 - 16:11
EN: and they’re afraid of risking that much money,
ZH: 止损距离非常远，他们害怕冒的风险太大了
16:09 - 16:11
EN: from selling here all the way up here.
ZH: 止损距离非常远，他们害怕冒的风险太大了
16:12 - 16:14
EN: Even when they have a high probability trade,
ZH: 即使出现了高胜率的机会，
16:14 - 16:18
EN: they’re afraid to take the trade because of risk.
ZH: 他们也因为风险而不敢入场
16:20 - 16:23
EN: When a beginner finally does sell – let’s say he sells
ZH: 如果一个新手终于下定决心做空了——
16:23 - 16:28
EN: below this Low 1 bear flag – he’ll end up exiting too early
ZH: 假设他在这个低1熊旗卖出做空， 也很可能会因为浮亏或利润回撤而过早离场，
16:27 - 16:28
EN: for a loss or breakeven.
ZH: 假设他在这个低1熊旗卖出做空， 也很可能会因为浮亏或利润回撤而过早离场，
16:28 - 16:33
EN: He sells here and he sees a decent bull reversal bar here, a Double Bottom,
ZH: 在这里做空之后，看到小双底和不错的反转阳线
16:33 - 16:38
EN: maybe a big Double Bottom, and he buys, and he exits on the reversal up.
ZH: 可能也是一个大的双底，于是在这里买入回补、离场
16:38 - 16:42
EN: If you’re selling this late in a bear trend, you have to be swing trading,
ZH: 如果你在下降趋势持续了这么久之后再做空， 你必须做波段交易
16:42 - 16:46
EN: which means you need to use a swing stop at least above the Sell Climax,
ZH: 这意味着你需要使用波段交易的止损， 至少放在抛售高潮的起跌点上方
16:46 - 16:48
EN: probably above the top of the bear trend,
ZH: 甚至放在整个下降趋势的起跌点上方
16:48 - 16:50
EN: and you have to be willing to hold through pullbacks.
ZH: 而且你必须在反弹的时候坚定持有
16:50 - 16:53
EN: This is almost certainly going to be a minor reversal.
ZH: 这几乎肯定是一个小反弹
16:53 - 16:56
EN: You have a Tight Bear Channel lasting 10 or 15 bars.
ZH: 窄下降通道，持续了10~15根K线
16:56 - 17:04
EN: The first reversal up, bears will sell it, and bulls who have been buying
ZH: 第1次反转上涨，空头会继续卖出做空， 而在下跌途中买入的多头一直在亏损， 他们会利用任何反弹的机会少亏离场
17:00 - 17:04
EN: all the way down and losing are going to use any bounce to exit.
ZH: 而在下跌途中买入的多头一直在亏损， 他们会利用任何反弹的机会少亏离场
17:04 - 17:07
EN: So you’ll have bulls selling and bears selling,
ZH: 所以多头和空头都会卖出
17:07 - 17:09
EN: and you’ll probably get at least a second leg down.
ZH: 至少会导致第2段下跌
17:14 - 17:16
EN: The bears finally got their pullback.
ZH: 空头终于等到了反弹（做空的机会）
17:16 - 17:19
EN: A Low 2 short – Low 1, Low 2.
ZH: 低2做空点——低1，低2
17:19 - 17:22
EN: You can call it a failed breakout above a Double Top.
ZH: 你可以把它看作是突破双顶失败
17:22 - 17:25
EN: First high, second high, breakout that reversed down,
ZH: 第1个高点，第2个高点，突破候反转下跌
17:25 - 17:27
EN: and therefore it’s a type of a Wedge bear flag.
ZH: 所以这是3推楔形熊旗的一种
17:27 - 17:30
EN: But the beginner still does not sell.
ZH: 但新手仍然不敢做空
17:30 - 17:32
EN: He’s concerned that we’re getting too many bull bars.
ZH: 他担心这里的阳线太多了
17:32 - 17:35
EN: He ignores the reality that the bull bars are small.
ZH: 但他忽略了这些阳线体积都很小的事实
17:35 - 17:39
EN: There is no series of 2 or 3 big bull bars.
ZH: 没有连续2~3根大阳线
17:39 - 17:41
EN: Look at the size of these bull bars.
ZH: 看看这些阳线的大小
17:41 - 17:47
EN: They’re big, but not compared to that, this, and that,
ZH: 相比这根阴线，还有它，它，还有整个下降趋势而言， 这些阳线的体积并不大
17:45 - 17:47
EN: and not compared to the size of the selloff.
ZH: 相比这根阴线，还有它，它，还有整个下降趋势而言， 这些阳线的体积并不大
17:47 - 17:51
EN: This is almost certainly a bull leg in either a Trading Range
ZH: 这几乎肯定只是震荡区间中的一段上涨
17:51 - 17:54
EN: or it’s a bear flag leading to another leg down.
ZH: 或者是熊旗，还会有1段下跌
17:54 - 17:58
EN: But the beginners won’t take the short because they’re afraid it’s a reversal.
ZH: 但新手不敢做空，因为他们害怕会反转上涨
17:58 - 17:59
EN: It’s not.
ZH: 不会
18:04 - 18:07
EN: Computers don’t trade on emotion,
ZH: 电脑程序不会遵循情绪交易 （注：因为根本没有情绪）
Slide 013
Time: 18:05
Bilingual Transcript
18:07 - 18:10
EN: and you can only make money if you follow their logic.
ZH: 你只有遵循它们的逻辑才能赚钱
18:10 - 18:17
EN: When I say they don’t trade on emotion, there are some algorithms
ZH: 我刚才说它们不根据情绪交易， 其实少数算法会在推特或新闻中寻找特定的词语
18:13 - 18:17
EN: that look for certain words in Twitter or newsfeeds,
ZH: 其实少数算法会在推特或新闻中寻找特定的词语
18:17 - 18:24
EN: which is a measurement of emotion, but in general the vast majority
ZH: 来分析市场上的情绪； 但绝大部分电脑程序的交易是和情绪完全无关的
18:21 - 18:24
EN: of trades taking place are not based upon any emotion.
ZH: 来分析市场上的情绪； 但绝大部分电脑程序的交易是和情绪完全无关的
18:27 - 18:29
EN: I think this is a very important point.
ZH: 接下来的这一点很重要
18:29 - 18:34
EN: On any chart, any timeframe, any market, 90% or more of the bars
ZH: 在任何K线图、任何时间周期、任何市场上，
18:34 - 18:39
EN: on any chart are either in a Trading Range or a Broad Channel.
ZH: 90%或更多的K线都处于震荡区间或者宽通道中
18:40 - 18:46
EN: That means that you can buy or sell at any point
ZH: 这说明你可以在任何时候做多或做空， 只要管理得当，都可以赚钱
18:44 - 18:46
EN: and make money if you manage your trade correctly.
ZH: 这说明你可以在任何时候做多或做空， 只要管理得当，都可以赚钱
18:46 - 18:51
EN: It usually means using a wide stop and scaling in, but it’s possible.
ZH: 这通常意味着使用较宽的初始止损，并且加仓
18:53 - 18:57
EN: 10% of the bars on any chart are either in a strong breakout,
ZH: 任何K线图上，只有10%的K线处于强势突破
18:57 - 19:02
EN: like here, or in a relatively Tight Channel, like there,
ZH: 比如这里；或者像那里，市场处于一个相对窄的通道
19:02 - 19:06
EN: and a Tight Channel is a breakout on a higher timeframe chart.
ZH: 而窄通道在更高的时间周期上是突破
19:06 - 19:09
EN: When that’s the case, you should only sell.
ZH: 在这种情况下，你只能做空
19:09 - 19:13
EN: So 10% of the bars in any chart are in a strong breakout like this
ZH: 所以任何K线图上，只有10%的K线处于这样的强突破，
19:13 - 19:17
EN: or in a Tight Channel, and you should only be selling.
ZH: 或者窄通道，此时你只能做空（顺势交易）
19:17 - 19:23
EN: Certainly a strong breakout, 10% of the bars on the chart are
ZH: 这显然是强势的空头突破，此时只能顺着做空
19:21 - 19:23
EN: in a strong breakout, you can only sell.
ZH: 这显然是强势的空头突破，此时只能顺着做空
19:23 - 19:25
EN: Here, theoretically you might be able to make money.
ZH: 这里做多理论上可以赚一点点钱
19:25 - 19:30
EN: Obviously the market did not reverse up high enough for buyers to make money.
ZH: 但总的来说，反弹的幅度都不够大，不足以让多头赚钱
19:30 - 19:33
EN: And again, if the market’s in a fairly Tight Channel like that,
ZH: 再次强调，如果市场处于这种非常窄的下降通道
19:33 - 19:35
EN: it’s a breakout on a higher timeframe chart,
ZH: 在更高时间周期上这就是突破
19:35 - 19:37
EN: and I think traders should only sell.
ZH: 所以交易者应该只考虑做空
19:38 - 19:44
EN: When did it begin a strong breakout? Once you have 3 or 4 consecutive bear bars
ZH: 空头是什么时候开始反转的？ 一旦在一个可靠的反转结构之后，
19:43 - 19:46
EN: closing on their lows after some kind of credible reversal,
ZH: 空头是什么时候开始反转的？ 一旦在一个可靠的反转结构之后， 出现连续3~4根阴线，
19:46 - 19:49
EN: you should assume the market’s Always In Short.
ZH: 就要考虑市场是否已经处于单边下跌
19:52 - 19:57
EN: Beginners usually lose until they can get free of emotions.
ZH: 在能够摆脱情绪的影响之前，新手会一直亏损
19:57 - 20:02
EN: It’s very difficult to win until you’re comfortable with constant uncertainty,
ZH: 在能够适应每一笔交易的不确定性之前，很难盈利
20:02 - 20:06
EN: and 90% of the bars on the chart, you are going to be uncertain.
ZH: 而K线图上90%的K线，你都会感到不确定
20:06 - 20:12
EN: 10% of the bars on the chart, you look at it and say,
ZH: 只有10%的K线，你会认为： “嗯，没错，60%，70%，80%会继续下跌”
20:09 - 20:12
EN: oh yeah, 60%, 70%, 80% we’re going lower.
ZH: 只有10%的K线，你会认为： “嗯，没错，60%，70%，80%会继续下跌”
20:12 - 20:16
EN: But the rest of the time, 90% of the bars on the chart,
ZH: 但其他时候，K线图上90%的K线，
20:16 - 20:25
EN: you’re never more certain than 60%, which means the traders
ZH: 确定性是不会超过60%的 也就是说，反向交易的对手盘胜率不会低于40%
20:20 - 20:25
EN: taking the opposite side of a trade are never less certain than 40%.
ZH: 也就是说，反向交易的对手盘胜率不会低于40%
20:25 - 20:28
EN: That means that 10% of the bars on the chart,
ZH: K线图上10%的K线，
20:28 - 20:32
EN: the probability of the direction is 60% or higher.
ZH: 朝某个方向运行的概率大于60%
20:32 - 20:36
EN: 90% of the bars on the chart, the probability of the direction
ZH: 而其余90%的K线
20:36 - 20:40
EN: up or down is going to be between 40% and 60%.
ZH: 上涨和下跌的概率都在40~60%之间
Slide 014
Time: 20:45
Bilingual Transcript
20:46 - 20:49
EN: Every now and then if you’re watching traders on television,
ZH: 如果你听财经频道的交易员讲解，
20:49 - 20:52
EN: they’ll talk about what’s the direction of the next 100 points,
ZH: 有时他们会谈论接下来的100个点（期货）
20:52 - 20:56
EN: the next 100 pips, the next 100 ticks, or the next 10 pips, the next 50 pips.
ZH: 或者100 pips（外汇），或者100个ticks（期货）， 10 pips，50 pips的方向是什么
20:56 - 21:00
EN: In other words, is the market going to go up 100 ticks
ZH: 换句话说，市场会先上涨100个ticks
21:00 - 21:05
EN: before it goes down 100 ticks? Should I buy for a 100 tick move up
ZH: 还是先下跌100个ticks？ 是否应该冒着下跌100 ticks的风险，押注市场先上涨100 ticks？
21:03 - 21:11
EN: and risk 100 ticks to the down side, or should I sell for a 100 tick
ZH: 还是先下跌100个ticks？ 是否应该冒着下跌100 ticks的风险，押注市场先上涨100 ticks？ 还是说应该押注市场会先跌100 ticks， 然后把止损放在上方100 ticks的地方？
21:07 - 21:11
EN: move down and risk to 100 ticks to the up side?
ZH: 还是说应该押注市场会先跌100 ticks， 然后把止损放在上方100 ticks的地方？
21:12 - 21:17
EN: I refer to that as the probability of an equidistant opposite move
ZH: 我把这种做法称为等距离移动的概率——
21:17 - 21:22
EN: - equidistant because it’s X units one way before X units the other way.
ZH: 说它是等距离，因为是在押注先上涨X个单位， 还是先下跌X个单位
21:22 - 21:24
EN: 100 pips up, 100 pips down.
ZH: 上涨100 pips，下跌100 pips
21:24 - 21:26
EN: 1% up, 1% down.
ZH: 涨1%，跌1%
21:26 - 21:29
EN: One dollar up, one dollar down.
ZH: 涨一块钱，跌一块钱
21:32 - 21:36
EN: For example, at this moment, you don’t see all of this stuff yet,
ZH: 假设此时你还没看到后面的这些K线
21:36 - 21:41
EN: but at this moment, is it more likely that the market’s going to go above that bar?
ZH: 就在这一刻，市场更有可能先超过这个高点吗？ （还是会先下跌这些距离？）
21:41 - 21:43
EN: You know the distance.
ZH: 你知道距离是多少
21:43 - 21:45
EN: If you sell here, your stop is above that bar.
ZH: 如果你在这里卖出，你的止损在那根K线的上方
21:45 - 21:50
EN: The distance to that line is the same distance here.
ZH: 到那里和到这里的距离是相等的
21:50 - 21:59
EN: So at this moment, if you had to buy and put a stop that distance below,
ZH: 如果你此刻必须做一个选择： 做多，然后把止损放在这里，预期市场会测试那个高点
21:56 - 22:06
EN: looking for a test of that high, or sell, putting a stop up there and hoping
ZH: 如果你此刻必须做一个选择： 做多，然后把止损放在这里，预期市场会测试那个高点 或者做空，把止损放在上方，预期市场会先下跌相等的距离； 你会怎么做？
22:01 - 22:06
EN: for a reward equal to the size of your risk, what would you do?
ZH: 或者做空，把止损放在上方，预期市场会先下跌相等的距离； 你会怎么做？
22:06 - 22:08
EN: Would you take the buy or take your sell?
ZH: 你会做多还是做空？
22:09 - 22:10
EN: Well, we’re Always In Short.
ZH: 现在市场处于单边下跌
22:10 - 22:13
EN: Once we’ve had this third consecutive bear bar, Always In Short.
ZH: 一旦看到了这连续的第3根阴线，市场就处于单边下跌
22:13 - 22:16
EN: Always In Short means it’s probably going down,
ZH: 单边下跌，意味着市场更有可能继续下跌
22:16 - 22:26
EN: and therefore the probability is greater that you’re going
ZH: 所以相比先上涨突破这个高点， 市场更有可能先下跌相等的距离
22:20 - 22:26
EN: to reach a Measured Move down from the high to your entry
ZH: 所以相比先上涨突破这个高点， 市场更有可能先下跌相等的距离
22:24 - 22:26
EN: than it is that it’ll get to your target.
ZH: 所以相比先上涨突破这个高点， 市场更有可能先下跌相等的距离
22:29 - 22:31
EN: The stop for the bears is up here.
ZH: 空头的止损在这里
22:31 - 22:33
EN: Their reward is here.
ZH: 目标位在这里
22:33 - 22:37
EN: If someone buys here, they’re looking for a new high.
ZH: 如果有人在这里买入，希望价格创新高
22:37 - 22:43
EN: Their reward is here, and a reasonable stop would be
ZH: 因为他们的目标位在这里， 所以等距离的止损，也就是这里，是一个合理的选择
22:40 - 22:43
EN: an equidistant move down, so their stop is here.
ZH: 因为他们的目标位在这里， 所以等距离的止损，也就是这里，是一个合理的选择
22:47 - 22:51
EN: This is the risk for the bears and the reward for the bulls.
ZH: 这是空头的风险和多头的利润
22:51 - 22:55
EN: This is the reward for the bears and the risk for the bulls.
ZH: 这是空头的利润和多头的风险
Slide 015
Time: 23:00
Bilingual Transcript
23:02 - 23:06
EN: I think on the close of this bar, the market reversed to Always In Short.
ZH: 我认为在这根K线收盘时，市场已经反转进入单边下跌
23:06 - 23:11
EN: In other words, the probability of making money shifted in favor of the bears,
ZH: 换句话说，概率转向了，做空更有可能赚钱
23:12 - 23:16
EN: and at this point, if you were forced to buy or sell,
ZH: 此时，如果你必须在做多或做空中选择一个，
23:16 - 23:21
EN: you have a much better chance of making money
ZH: 那么选择做空，然后把止损放在那里， 这样做赚钱的概率更大
23:18 - 23:21
EN: if you chose to sell and putting a stop up there.
ZH: 那么选择做空，然后把止损放在那里， 这样做赚钱的概率更大
23:21 - 23:26
EN: Once it’s Always In Short, it’s easier to make money selling.
ZH: 一旦进入单边下跌，做空就更容易赚钱
23:26 - 23:28
EN: For example, here we’re Always In Long.
ZH: 例如，这里是单边上涨
23:28 - 23:30
EN: It’s easier to make money buying.
ZH: 做多更容易赚钱
23:30 - 23:34
EN: At this instant, would you make more money putting a stop down here,
ZH: 这一刻该如何选择？买入，把止损放在这里，
23:34 - 23:38
EN: going for a profit equal to the height from your entry price to the stop,
ZH: 目标位设置在一倍的止损距离；
23:38 - 23:45
EN: or would you make more money selling here, putting a stop that distance above,
ZH: 或者卖出做空，预期市场会先跌破起涨点， 然后把止损放在上方等距离的地方？
23:42 - 23:45
EN: expecting the market to fall below the bottom of the breakout?
ZH: 或者卖出做空，预期市场会先跌破起涨点， 然后把止损放在上方等距离的地方？
23:46 - 23:48
EN: It’s more likely that we’re going up.
ZH: 更有可能继续上涨
23:48 - 23:50
EN: Here, the market’s Always In Long.
ZH: 这里，市场处于单边上涨
23:50 - 23:53
EN: Here, the market’s Always In Short.
ZH: 这里，市场处于单边下跌
23:53 - 23:56
EN: It’s probably going to go here before it this that stop.
ZH: 更有可能先下跌，而不是先上涨打到止损
Slide 016
Time: 24:00
Bilingual Transcript
24:02 - 24:05
EN: I talked about equidistant targets.
ZH: 刚才我讲了等距离移动的概率
24:05 - 24:10
EN: Now, what about the probability of different size opposite moves?
ZH: 那么，不同距离移动的概率该怎么算呢？
24:10 - 24:15
EN: For example, moving X units one way before moving Y units the other way.
ZH: 到底是先上涨X单位，还是先下跌Y单位？
24:15 - 24:24
EN: For example, a computer might estimate the probability
ZH: 比如，某个电脑程序估算市场会先上涨0.1%， 而不是先下跌0.13%
24:18 - 24:24
EN: of the market going up 0.1% before it goes down 0.13%.
ZH: 比如，某个电脑程序估算市场会先上涨0.1%， 而不是先下跌0.13%
24:30 - 24:33
EN: Computers obviously want to maximize their profit.
ZH: 电脑程序显然想最大化他们的利润
24:33 - 24:36
EN: When the probability of an equidistant move favors the bears,
ZH: 如果等距离移动的概率偏向于做空，
24:36 - 24:41
EN: the system designers are going to try to determine
ZH: 那么系统就会尝试确定最佳的目标位在哪里
24:39 - 24:41
EN: what the best profit target is.
ZH: 那么系统就会尝试确定最佳的目标位在哪里
24:41 - 24:44
EN: It might be better than simply one times risk.
ZH: 最佳目标位可能不止一倍的止损距离
24:44 - 24:47
EN: A bear selling here, here’s his risk.
ZH: 空头在这里卖出，这里是他的风险
24:47 - 24:51
EN: This is the same distance, so this is one times risk.
ZH: 这是相等的距离，所以这是一倍止损距离
24:51 - 24:54
EN: However, that is not necessarily the best target.
ZH: 然而，这不一定是最佳目标
24:54 - 25:00
EN: The market may fall quite a bit more, especially once you start
ZH: 市场可能会跌更多， 尤其是再次跌破，而且又有好的阴线跟随
24:57 - 25:00
EN: to see another breakout and another follow-through bar.
ZH: 市场可能会跌更多， 尤其是再次跌破，而且又有好的阴线跟随
Slide 017
Time: 25:05
Bilingual Transcript
25:06 - 25:10
EN: Computers can make these calculations quickly, objectively,
ZH: 电脑可以快速、客观地进行这些计算，
25:10 - 25:14
EN: unemotionally, and it’s too complex for traders to do.
ZH: 然后无情地下单交易； 但对人类而言这太复杂了
25:14 - 25:18
EN: I would not worry about the perfect math.
ZH: 我并不会纠结是否完美， 数学期望足够好，就可以了
25:17 - 25:18
EN: Good math is good enough.
ZH: 我并不会纠结是否完美， 数学期望足够好，就可以了
25:18 - 25:22
EN: As long as you do something that makes sense, it does not have to be perfect.
ZH: 只要你做的事情是合理的，就不必完美
25:22 - 25:26
EN: And when you’re trading, you cannot focus too much on the math,
ZH: 当你在交易时，不能过于关注数学，
25:26 - 25:30
EN: trying to get every little penny that you can out of the market.
ZH: 不能妄图赚到市场上的每一分钱
25:30 - 25:36
EN: It’s better to just do something that makes sense
ZH: 而是应该专注于做合理的事，专注于正确地管理交易
25:33 - 25:36
EN: and then concentrate on managing the trade properly.
ZH: 而是应该专注于做合理的事，专注于正确地管理交易
25:36 - 25:40
EN: Keep asking yourself, “Is my premise still valid?
ZH: 不断问自己：“这笔交易的前提仍然有效吗？
25:40 - 25:43
EN: Is my trade still good?” If it’s not, then you get out.
ZH: 这笔交易还成立吗？” 如果不对劲，那就赶紧离场
25:43 - 25:46
EN: If it is, you continue to hold your position and you think
ZH: 如果没问题，那就继续持有，
25:46 - 25:54
EN: about moving your stop, tightening your stop, and adjusting your profit target
ZH: 然后根据当下的价格行为， 考虑是否放大或缩小止损、放大或缩小止盈目标
25:51 - 25:54
EN: making it bigger, making it smaller, depending on what you’re seeing.
ZH: 然后根据当下的价格行为， 考虑是否放大或缩小止损、放大或缩小止盈目标
25:59 - 26:05
EN: Some algorithms are designed to take more profit when the probability is high
ZH: 有些算法会在高胜率的时候争取赚更多利润，
26:05 - 26:08
EN: instead of just trying to take profit at one times risk.
ZH: 而不是仅仅在一倍止损距离就收手
26:08 - 26:14
EN: It does not matter what you do, as long as what you do results
ZH: 不管用什么方法交易，只要数学期望为正，就是好的方法
26:12 - 26:14
EN: in a positive Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 不管用什么方法交易，只要数学期望为正，就是好的方法
26:16 - 26:24
EN: In general, one times risk is the minimum
ZH: 通常来说，任何交易中一倍止损距离是最低的目标， 但通常不是最好的选择
26:20 - 26:24
EN: that you want on any trade, but it’s rarely the best.
ZH: 通常来说，任何交易中一倍止损距离是最低的目标， 但通常不是最好的选择
26:24 - 26:26
EN: Usually you can get more.
ZH: 通常你可以赚到更多
26:26 - 26:29
EN: This would be a better zone for taking profits,
ZH: 这是一个更好的止盈区域
26:29 - 26:32
EN: and it could be two times risk, it could be three times risk.
ZH: 它可能是止损距离的两倍甚至三倍
Slide 018
Time: 26:35
Bilingual Transcript
26:37 - 26:43
EN: I said before that probability and risk/reward is a tradeoff.
ZH: 我之前说过，概率和盈亏比是需要权衡的
26:44 - 26:46
EN: If you’re waiting to enter when the probability is high,
ZH: 如果你等到高胜率的机会再入场，
26:46 - 26:49
EN: the risk/reward ratio is going to be worse.
ZH: 盈亏比就会变差
26:49 - 26:54
EN: On the other hand, if you want trades that have very big profit potential,
ZH: 然而，如果你想要赚到很大的潜在利润，
26:54 - 26:56
EN: the probability is going to be less.
ZH: 那么胜率就会变低
26:57 - 27:02
EN: A high probability trade always comes with a bad risk/reward ratio
ZH: 高胜率的交易总是伴随着糟糕的盈亏比
27:02 - 27:06
EN: because there always has to be a reason
ZH: 因为必须给对手盘一个参与交易的理由
27:03 - 27:06
EN: for someone to take the other side of the trade.
ZH: 因为必须给对手盘一个参与交易的理由
27:06 - 27:09
EN: For example, if you’re buying and you have a very high probability of winning
ZH: 例如，如果你做多有很高的胜率
27:09 - 27:15
EN: on your particular trade, the institution taking the other side
ZH: 那么站在对面做空的那个机构的胜率就很低
27:13 - 27:15
EN: has a very low probability of winning.
ZH: 那么站在对面做空的那个机构的胜率就很低
27:15 - 27:18
EN: There has to be a reason for him to take the trade,
ZH: 但他们愿意做空，一定存在他们的理由
27:18 - 27:22
EN: and it’s going to be he has a very strong risk/reward ratio
ZH: 所以他们有较好的盈亏比
27:22 - 27:26
EN: and you have to have a very bad risk/reward ratio.
ZH: 而你的盈亏比就相对糟糕
27:27 - 27:31
EN: Sometimes you can structure a trade with a probability of 80% or more.
ZH: 有时你可以构建一笔胜率超过80%的交易
27:31 - 27:38
EN: However, that always means your reward is going to be small
ZH: 然而，这总是意味着你在剥头皮， 而利润相对于风险而言很小
27:34 - 27:38
EN: compared to your risk, and that you’re scalping.
ZH: 然而，这总是意味着你在剥头皮， 而利润相对于风险而言很小
27:38 - 27:40
EN: Most traders cannot make a living doing that,
ZH: 大多数交易者无法通过这种方式谋生，
27:40 - 27:43
EN: but I’ve known many extremely good scalpers
ZH: 但我认识许多非常优秀的剥头皮交易者
27:43 - 27:46
EN: over the years who do extremely well doing that.
ZH: 长年累月都做得很好
27:46 - 27:49
EN: It’s just very difficult for most traders to do it.
ZH: 只是对大多数交易者来说，这样做非常困难
27:49 - 27:54
EN: And remember, it’s not simply that you can do it; you have to be happy doing it,
ZH: 关键是，不仅仅是有能力做到，而且还要做得开心
27:54 - 28:00
EN: and there are very few people who can both be profitable and happy as scalpers.
ZH: 很少有人既能够通过剥头皮稳定盈利， 又长期享受这个过程
28:04 - 28:06
EN: We have a strong bear breakout.
ZH: 强势的空头突破
28:06 - 28:08
EN: Good sized bear bars closing on their lows.
ZH: 较大的阴线收在最低
28:08 - 28:10
EN: It’s a Sell Climax.
ZH: 这是抛售高潮
28:10 - 28:12
EN: Probably a pullback soon.
ZH: 可能很快就会反弹
28:12 - 28:17
EN: However, when a breakout is this strong, almost certainly you’re going
ZH: 然而，如果突破这么强势， 几乎肯定会有第2段下跌
28:15 - 28:17
EN: to get at least a small second leg down.
ZH: 然而，如果突破这么强势， 几乎肯定会有第2段下跌
28:17 - 28:19
EN: This could be the second leg down.
ZH: 可能这个就是第2段下跌
28:19 - 28:23
EN: This whole thing probably was the second leg down.
ZH: 或者这一整段都是第2段下跌
28:26 - 28:29
EN: Let’s say you sell the reversal up,
ZH: 假设你在反弹上涨时卖出做空
28:29 - 28:33
EN: expecting that it’s a minor reversal and a bad buy.
ZH: 押注这是小反弹，是糟糕的做多机会
28:33 - 28:34
EN: It is.
ZH: 没错
28:34 - 28:39
EN: Look how many bear bars, and the only bull bar we have
ZH: 看看阴线的数量，而唯一的阳线体积又很小
28:37 - 28:39
EN: has a very tiny bull body.
ZH: 看看阴线的数量，而唯一的阳线体积又很小
28:39 - 28:43
EN: This has a very high probability of failing and becoming a bear flag.
ZH: 所以很大的概率多头反转会失败，变成熊旗
28:44 - 28:49
EN: If a trader sells above this bull bar, betting that the bull reversal
ZH: 如果交易者在这根阳线上方卖出，押注多头反转失败
28:49 - 28:54
EN: is going to fail, his stop at a minimum is at the top of the Sell Climax,
ZH: 他的止损至少要放在抛售高潮的起跌点上方
28:54 - 28:55
EN: just above the top of the Sell Climax.
ZH: 就放在这根阴线上方
28:55 - 28:57
EN: He could also put a stop up here if he wants.
ZH: 也可以把止损放在这里
28:57 - 29:02
EN: Both are okay, but this is an acceptable location for a stop.
ZH: 两者都可以，但这里已经是一个合理的止损位
29:05 - 29:10
EN: And let’s say he exited right here,
ZH: 假设他在这里离场——测试前期低点， 在大阴线的收盘止盈离场
29:07 - 29:10
EN: on the test of this low on this big bear close.
ZH: 假设他在这里离场——测试前期低点， 在大阴线的收盘止盈离场
29:10 - 29:13
EN: The math on that is actually decent.
ZH: 数学上是合理的
29:13 - 29:17
EN: Your Actual Risk was small, your reward is at least twice as big as your risk,
ZH: 实际风险很小，你的利润至少是实际风险的两倍
29:18 - 29:21
EN: and you ended up with a small profit, a scalp.
ZH: 剥头皮，赚了一笔小钱
29:25 - 29:30
EN: The initial risk was about three times the size of the reward.
ZH: 初始风险大约是利润的三倍 （注：初始风险和实际风险的区别，在第34单元）
29:30 - 29:34
EN: He sold at this high, got filled here, and this is where he took his profits.
ZH: 他在这个高点开仓做空，在这里成交， 这里是他止盈的地方
29:34 - 29:39
EN: The risk, the initial risk was three times the size of his reward.
ZH: 初始风险大约是利润的三倍
29:39 - 29:42
EN: If a trader takes this trade consistently,
ZH: 如果一直这样交易，
29:42 - 29:45
EN: he has to win 80% of the time just to break even.
ZH: 就算80%的胜率也才能勉强打平 （注：0.8 _ 1 - 0.2 _ 3 = 0.2，再减去手续费、人为失误等）
29:46 - 29:50
EN: Do you think it’s an 80% bet selling the high of this bar?
ZH: 你觉得在这根K线的高点做空，有80%的胜率吗？
29:50 - 29:56
EN: So if you see this trade setup 10 more times, you take it and expect
ZH: 如果你又看到10次这样的情况， 你会做空并期待其中8笔都能赚钱吗？
29:55 - 30:00
EN: to win 80% of the time? You probably will manage the trade incorrectly.
ZH: 如果你又看到10次这样的情况， 你会做空并期待其中8笔都能赚钱吗？ 你大概率会在管理交易的时候出错
30:00 - 30:08
EN: You’ll probably diagnose the setup incorrectly, selling trades
ZH: 你大概率会错把好的大反转上涨机会当作是做空机会
30:04 - 30:08
EN: that are actually going to be good reversals and not minor reversals.
ZH: 你大概率会错把好的大反转上涨机会当作是做空机会
30:08 - 30:10
EN: It’s too easy to lose money.
ZH: 这样做太容易亏钱了
30:10 - 30:13
EN: You have to win a very high percentage of the time,
ZH: 你必须有非常高的胜率
30:13 - 30:15
EN: which means you have to do a lot of things right.
ZH: 也就是说你要把所有事情都做对
30:15 - 30:18
EN: You have to analyze whether or not the trade is acceptable.
ZH: 你必须分析交易是否合理
30:18 - 30:21
EN: You have to decide if the premise is still reasonable.
ZH: 你必须决定前提是否仍然成立
30:21 - 30:24
EN: You sell this high and then filled on this bar.
ZH: 你在这个高点卖出，限价卖单在这根K线上成交
30:24 - 30:29
EN: Once the bar closes, you look at that and say, “I don’t know.
ZH: 当它收盘的时候，你会想到： “该怎么办呢？我希望它立刻就是一根大阴线，
30:27 - 30:29
EN: I was hoping for a big bear bar on this bar
ZH: 当它收盘的时候，你会想到： “该怎么办呢？我希望它立刻就是一根大阴线，
30:29 - 30:33
EN: when I entered, and I did not get it.
ZH: 然而只是一个小十字星，我应该继续持有吗？”
30:31 - 30:33
EN: Should I continue to hold?”
ZH: 然而只是一个小十字星，我应该继续持有吗？”
30:33 - 30:37
EN: Just too many decisions to make, and it’s very hard to do all of them well.
ZH: 有太多东西需要决定，很难把每个都做好
30:37 - 30:41
EN: To be a profitable scalper, you have to do all of them well
ZH: 想要成为一个稳定盈利的剥头皮交易者， 你必须把所有事情都做得很好
30:41 - 30:48
EN: because you need a very high winning percentage to make a consistent living,
ZH: 因为你需要非常高的胜率才能维持稳定、富足的生活
30:46 - 30:48
EN: a good living, as a scalper.
ZH: 因为你需要非常高的胜率才能维持稳定、富足的生活
30:48 - 30:50
EN: And therefore traders should not be doing this.
ZH: 因此，绝大部分交易者不应该这么做
Slide 019
Time: 30:55
Bilingual Transcript
30:56 - 30:59
EN: I’m looking at charts all day long, and every tick,
ZH: 我每时每刻都在研究K线图，每一个tick，
30:59 - 31:05
EN: every pip if it’s a Forex chart, I see obvious support or resistance or both.
ZH: 如果是外汇，那就是每一个pip， 我都能看到明显的支撑或阻力，或两者都有
31:06 - 31:09
EN: If I’m looking at any point on the chart – let’s say this point on the chart
ZH: 我看到K线图上的任何一个地方——比如在这里
31:09 - 31:12
EN: - I can see where support and resistance is.
ZH: 我知道支撑和阻力在哪里
31:12 - 31:18
EN: Resistance is going to be where I’m going to put my stop, somewhere above,
ZH: 我会把止损放在阻力位，上方的某个地方
31:18 - 31:21
EN: and support is going to be an area where I’ll look to take profits.
ZH: 而支撑就是我会止盈的区域
31:25 - 31:30
EN: High probability of making money if I sell here and I manage my trade correctly.
ZH: 如果我在这里卖出并正确管理交易，赚到钱的概率很高
31:30 - 31:34
EN: High probability that I can make as much money as I have to risk.
ZH: 很大的概率，我冒多少风险，就可以赚多少钱
31:34 - 31:36
EN: In general, if you see a strong breakout like that,
ZH: 通常，如果你看到这么的强势突破
31:36 - 31:39
EN: you know you’re probably going to make money.
ZH: 你就知道你大概率可以赚钱
31:39 - 31:43
EN: A 60% chance you’re going to make a reward equal to the size of the breakout
ZH: 60%的概率，利润至少等于突破的高度 （注：也就是MM目标位）
31:43 - 31:48
EN: - either the high or open of this bar to your entry price here,
ZH: 从它的高点，或开盘价，到你的开仓点，
31:48 - 31:52
EN: 60% chance in general it’s going to fall at least that same distance.
ZH: 60%的概率，市场至少会下跌相同的距离
31:55 - 31:58
EN: So let’s say you put your stop right above here,
ZH: 所以假设你把止损放在它的上方
31:59 - 32:04
EN: and let’s say it’s 15 ticks if it’s an Emini chart or a stock chart.
ZH: 如果是ES或者某支股票，假设这是15个ticks，
32:04 - 32:08
EN: Or if it’s a Forex market, let’s say it’s 22 pips.
ZH: 或者如果是外汇的话，假设这是22 pips
32:11 - 32:22
EN: Measured Move down is here, and if it’s the E-Mini or a stock,
ZH: MM目标位在这里；如果是ES或者股票， 你会在止损被打到之前，先赚到15个ticks
32:17 - 32:22
EN: you would get your 15 ticks before your stop was hit.
ZH: MM目标位在这里；如果是ES或者股票， 你会在止损被打到之前，先赚到15个ticks
32:22 - 32:26
EN: If it was the Forex market, it would have fallen 22 pips
ZH: 如果是外汇，价格会先下跌22 pips
32:26 - 32:31
EN: and you would’ve received 22 pips profit while risking 22 pips initially.
ZH: 所以你冒了22 pips的初始风险，赚到22 pips
32:34 - 32:41
EN: 60% chance when you took that trade
ZH: 如果你在这里做空，60%的概率市场会跌到一倍止损距离
Slide 020
Time: 32:35
Bilingual Transcript
32:37 - 32:41
EN: that the market would reach a target equal to your risk.
ZH: 如果你在这里做空，60%的概率市场会跌到一倍止损距离
32:41 - 32:43
EN: Reward equal to your risk.
ZH: 利润等于风险
32:47 - 32:50
EN: Whenever I’m looking at a chart and I’m trying to assess probability,
ZH: 当我看着K线图并尝试评估概率时
32:50 - 32:53
EN: the only time I’m confident of the probability
ZH: 唯一让我对概率有信心的时候
32:53 - 32:56
EN: is during a strong breakout, when the context is good.
ZH: 就是在强势突破期间，前提是背景足够好（支持突破）
32:56 - 33:05
EN: When I see this strong breakout in a bear trend like this, I’m very confident
ZH: 当我在下降趋势中看到这样的强势突破时， 我对继续下跌、跌到MM目标位非常有信心
33:02 - 33:05
EN: that we’re going to go lower, probably a Measured Move down
ZH: 当我在下降趋势中看到这样的强势突破时， 我对继续下跌、跌到MM目标位非常有信心
33:05 - 33:08
EN: based on the close of this bar to the open of this bar.
ZH: 把突破的高度往下翻一倍
33:08 - 33:16
EN: And when I say very confident, that means I believe the probability is
ZH: 非常有信心的意思是， 至少60%的概率会跌到MM目标位
33:12 - 33:16
EN: at least 60% that it’s going to fall to a Measured Move down
ZH: 非常有信心的意思是， 至少60%的概率会跌到MM目标位
33:16 - 33:19
EN: before it gets to the stop above.
ZH: 而不是止损先被打到
33:19 - 33:22
EN: Any time I say, “oh yeah, that’s probably going down,”
ZH: 每当你听到我说：“大概率会下跌”的时候
33:22 - 33:25
EN: I have to be 60% certain or more.
ZH: 代表概率至少有60%
33:25 - 33:29
EN: If I’m less than 60%, I usually will not say “oh, it’s likely to happen”
ZH: 如果不到60%，我通常不会说 “大概率”“很可能”这样的词
33:29 - 33:35
EN: or “it’s probably going to happen.” I might say it’s maybe
ZH: 而是会说“也许”“可能性略高一些”， 但并不是非常的确定和清晰
33:32 - 33:35
EN: a little bit more likely than not, but it’s not all that clear.
ZH: 而是会说“也许”“可能性略高一些”， 但并不是非常的确定和清晰
33:35 - 33:38
EN: However, if I look at something and I say “yeah, I’m pretty confident
ZH: 然而，如果我看着某段行情并且说：
33:38 - 33:42
EN: that it’s going down,” I assume the probability is 60% or greater.
ZH: “没错，我很确信它会下跌” 代表我认为概率有60%或更高
33:42 - 33:49
EN: If you plug the data into the Trader’s Equation, a reward equal to risk
ZH: 如果你把数字带入数学期望的公式： 利润等于风险，胜率是60%
33:48 - 33:52
EN: and a probability of 60%, that gives you a positive Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 如果你把数字带入数学期望的公式： 利润等于风险，胜率是60% 数学期望计算的结果是正的
33:52 - 33:55
EN: And that means that if you take any trade and you look at it
ZH: 也就是说，如果在任何一笔交易中，
33:55 - 34:04
EN: and you say it’s probably going down, you can go for a reward equal
ZH: 你认为它大概率（60%）会下跌， 然后把目标设置为一倍止损距离的话， 数学期望是合理的
34:00 - 34:04
EN: to your initial risk, and it’s a mathematically good way to trade.
ZH: 然后把目标设置为一倍止损距离的话， 数学期望是合理的
34:09 - 34:14
EN: High probability, you don’t need a fantastic risk/reward ratio.
ZH: 如果胜率高，就不需要一个很好的盈亏比
34:14 - 34:17
EN: All you need is a reward equal to your risk
ZH: 利润等于风险就够了
34:17 - 34:19
EN: to have a positive Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 因为数学期望已经足够好
Slide 021
Time: 34:25
Bilingual Transcript
34:25 - 34:30
EN: When the market’s in a strong bear trend like this, you can sell for any reason.
ZH: 当市场处于这样的强势下降趋势时， 你可以根据任何理由做空
34:30 - 34:32
EN: You can sell bear closes all the way down.
ZH: 你可以一路在阴线的收盘卖出
34:32 - 34:36
EN: You can sell bull closes, betting that the first reversals up will fail.
ZH: 你可以在阳线的收盘卖出， 押注第1次向上反转的尝试会失败
34:36 - 34:47
EN: You can sell strong bull bars in a series of bars,
ZH: 只要你认为这仍然只是震荡区间或熊旗中的上涨， 即使是一系列阳线，你也可以在大阳线的收盘卖出
34:39 - 34:47
EN: as long as you think the reversal up is still only a bull leg
ZH: 只要你认为这仍然只是震荡区间或熊旗中的上涨， 即使是一系列阳线，你也可以在大阳线的收盘卖出
34:44 - 34:47
EN: in a Trading Range or a bear flag – which this is.
ZH: 只要你认为这仍然只是震荡区间或熊旗中的上涨， 即使是一系列阳线，你也可以在大阳线的收盘卖出
34:47 - 34:49
EN: And you can sell below bars.
ZH: 你也可以在前1根K线的下方卖出
34:49 - 34:51
EN: You can sell below this bar and get filled here,
ZH: 你可以在这根K线下方挂突破卖单，在这里成交
34:51 - 34:53
EN: below this bar, get filled here.
ZH: 在它下方卖出，在这里成交
34:53 - 34:55
EN: Use the correct stop, either here or here.
ZH: 使用正确的止损，要么在这里，要么在这里
34:57 - 35:00
EN: You can sell with limit orders, a 50% pullback from this breakout.
ZH: 你可以挂限价卖单，比如这个突破的50%反弹
35:00 - 35:03
EN: From this high to that low, 50% pullback.
ZH: 从这个高点到那个低点，50%反弹
35:03 - 35:05
EN: You could sell with a limit order right there.
ZH: 你可以在这里挂限价卖单做空
35:05 - 35:07
EN: You can sell with a limit order above this bar.
ZH: 你可以在这根K线上方挂限价卖单做空
35:07 - 35:10
EN: You could sell with a limit order above this bar.
ZH: 也可以在这根K线上方挂限价卖单做空
35:10 - 35:16
EN: Here’s a small Double Bottom, and you can bet that the breakout
ZH: 这里有一个小双底， 你可以押注多头的反弹幅度不会很大
35:14 - 35:19
EN: above the Double Bottom will not get very far, so you can place a limit order
ZH: 这里有一个小双底， 你可以押注多头的反弹幅度不会很大 然后在这个高点挂挂限价卖单， 订单会在这里成交
35:16 - 35:19
EN: to sell at this high, and you get filled right there.
ZH: 然后在这个高点挂挂限价卖单， 订单会在这里成交
35:23 - 35:27
EN: It doesn’t matter what reason you use to sell.
ZH: 不管你用什么理由做空都可以
35:27 - 35:32
EN: You next have to analyze, where is a logical place for the stop?
ZH: 接下来你必须分析，合理的止损位在哪里？
35:32 - 35:36
EN: The top of the Sell Climax, the top of this bear breakout, is a good place.
ZH: 抛售高潮的起点，空头突破的起点，是一个好的选择
35:36 - 35:38
EN: You could also put a stop up there.
ZH: 你也可以把止损放在这里上方
35:39 - 35:41
EN: And you know how far your entry price is.
ZH: 所以你知道止损距离是多少
35:41 - 35:48
EN: If I sold here or if I sold here, I can figure out how many ticks
ZH: 如果我在这里或这里卖出做空， 我可以计算出我冒了多少tick或pip的风险
35:45 - 35:53
EN: or how many pips I’m risking, and then I should set my target,
ZH: 如果我在这里或这里卖出做空， 我可以计算出我冒了多少tick或pip的风险 然后我可以在相等的距离，设置我的止盈限价买单
35:50 - 35:53
EN: my profit-taking target, at that same number of ticks or pips,
ZH: 然后我可以在相等的距离，设置我的止盈限价买单
35:53 - 35:56
EN: knowing that I’m looking at this and I’m saying,
ZH: 因为我知道在这种情况下，
35:56 - 36:00
EN: “yeah, it’s probably going down.” That tells me that I’m at least 60% certain
ZH: 市场大概率会继续下跌， 也就是60%的概率，
36:00 - 36:03
EN: that it’s going to go down for a move equal to my risk,
ZH: 市场会下跌到一倍的止损距离
36:03 - 36:07
EN: and therefore I have a good location for taking profits.
ZH: 所以我的止盈目标位是合理的
36:10 - 36:12
EN: We’re in a bear trend.
ZH: 市场处于下降趋势
36:12 - 36:15
EN: We have a Wedge bear flag here – Low 1, Low 2, Low 3
ZH: 这里有一个楔形熊旗——低1，低2，低3
36:15 - 36:21
EN: - and now we have either a Low 1, or you can call it
ZH: 现在这里是新的低1， 或者也可以说这两个高点形成了双顶熊旗
36:18 - 36:21
EN: a Double Top bear flag with this high and that high.
ZH: 现在这里是新的低1， 或者也可以说这两个高点形成了双顶熊旗
36:21 - 36:23
EN: Most Double Tops are not at the same level.
ZH: 大多数双顶两个高点的高度是不一样的
36:23 - 36:27
EN: And let’s say you wanted to sell below a bear bar, so you sell right here.
ZH: 假设你在一根阴线的下方卖出做空，比如说这里
36:27 - 36:29
EN: Where should you put your stop?
ZH: 你应该把止损放在哪里？
36:29 - 36:34
EN: In general, above the top of the most recent major Lower High.
ZH: 通常来说，要放在最近一个重要高点的上方
36:34 - 36:42
EN: Is this a major Lower High? No, a major Lower High
ZH: 这是一个重要的高点吗？不是 因为重要高点后面要有强势的跌破，通常需要创新低
36:37 - 36:42
EN: has a strong breakout and usually a new low.
ZH: 因为重要高点后面要有强势的跌破，通常需要创新低
36:42 - 36:45
EN: This is I think a major Lower High.
ZH: 我认为这是一个重要的高点
36:45 - 36:47
EN: This is clearly a major high.
ZH: 这显然是一个重要的高点
36:47 - 36:51
EN: This is a reasonable place for a stop, but most traders selling down here
ZH: 止损放在这里是合理的，但大多数在这里做空的交易者，
36:51 - 36:53
EN: probably would want a tighter stop
ZH: 可能想要稍微窄一点的止损
36:53 - 36:55
EN: - for example, above the top of this most recent bear breakout.
ZH: 例如，放在最近一次空头突破的起跌点上方
36:59 - 37:03
EN: High probability that the market’s going to go down, and your stop is here.
ZH: 市场大概率会继续下跌，你的止损在这里
37:03 - 37:09
EN: Let’s say your stop is 13 ticks above the entry price
ZH: 如果这是ES或者某支股票， 假设你的止损距离是13 ticks
37:07 - 37:09
EN: if it’s a stock or the Emini.
ZH: 如果这是ES或者某支股票， 假设你的止损距离是13 ticks
37:09 - 37:12
EN: On the other hand, let’s say it’s a Forex market and it’s 18 pips above.
ZH: 如果这是外汇，假设你的止损距离是18 pips
37:12 - 37:13
EN: It doesn’t matter.
ZH: 随便是多少
37:13 - 37:17
EN: Whatever that distance is, you’re looking at a high probability trade,
ZH: 不管止损距离是多少，你在做一笔高胜率的交易
37:17 - 37:22
EN: and therefore you can go for a profit target that is equal to your risk.
ZH: 所以你可以追求一倍风险的利润
37:25 - 37:29
EN: Here’s a Measured Move down, from the stop to the entry price.
ZH: 这里是MM目标位，从止损到入场点（的距离往下翻一倍）
37:29 - 37:30
EN: This is the Measured Move down.
ZH: MM目标位在这里
37:30 - 37:34
EN: If it was a stock, I said this could be 13 ticks.
ZH: 如果是股票，我刚才假设这是13 ticks
37:34 - 37:36
EN: Then your target is 13 ticks.
ZH: 那么利润目标就是13 ticks
37:36 - 37:43
EN: If it’s a Forex market and this was 18 pips
ZH: 如果是外汇，如果这段距离是18 pips， 那么目标位就在下方18 pips的地方
37:39 - 37:43
EN: above your entry price, then your target is 18 pips below.
ZH: 如果是外汇，如果这段距离是18 pips， 那么目标位就在下方18 pips的地方
37:43 - 37:47
EN: You look at this and you know the market’s in a bear trend.
ZH: 当你看到这个行情，你知道市场处于下降趋势
37:47 - 37:51
EN: 60% certain it’s going to go down at least as far as your risk.
ZH: 60%的概率市场至少会跌到一倍风险距离
37:52 - 37:56
EN: Therefore, selling below this bear bar, getting filled here,
ZH: 因此，在这根阴线下方卖出，在这里成交
37:56 - 37:58
EN: putting a stop here, a reasonable stop,
ZH: 止损放在这里是合理的
37:58 - 38:02
EN: has a 60% chance of reaching this profit target.
ZH: 有60%的概率，会跌到这个止盈目标位
Slide 022
Time: 38:05
Bilingual Transcript
38:07 - 38:13
EN: I talked about a Z-Score, which is a mathematical way
ZH: 这节课我首先讲了Z分数， 这是一种衡量交易策略好坏的数学方法
38:10 - 38:13
EN: to measure how good your system is.
ZH: 这节课我首先讲了Z分数， 这是一种衡量交易策略好坏的数学方法
38:13 - 38:23
EN: In general, if you’re testing a system and almost all of the profit comes
ZH: 通常来说，如果你在测试一个交易系统 但几乎所有的利润都来自于一两笔交易， 那么这个系统就很糟糕
38:19 - 38:23
EN: from one or two trades that is a bad system.
ZH: 但几乎所有的利润都来自于一两笔交易， 那么这个系统就很糟糕
38:23 - 38:25
EN: You want a high winning percentage
ZH: 你需要的是较高的胜率
38:25 - 38:28
EN: and you want rewards that are fairly consistent.
ZH: 并且需要每一笔交易的利润都稳定、一致
38:28 - 38:32
EN: You don’t want all of your profit to come from one or two trades
ZH: 你不希望所有的利润都来自一两笔交易
38:31 - 38:39
EN: because the risk of blowing your account,
ZH: 你不希望所有的利润都来自一两笔交易 因为这样爆仓的风险就更高， 需要重新往账户里充钱的概率就更高
38:33 - 38:39
EN: ruining your account, being unable to trade
ZH: 因为这样爆仓的风险就更高， 需要重新往账户里充钱的概率就更高
38:36 - 38:39
EN: without putting more money in the account, then becomes high.
ZH: 因为这样爆仓的风险就更高， 需要重新往账户里充钱的概率就更高
38:41 - 38:48
EN: All traders are always choosing between a trade
ZH: 所有交易者都需要一直在胜率和盈亏比之间做选择
38:44 - 38:48
EN: with high probability or a trade with strong risk/reward.
ZH: 所有交易者都需要一直在胜率和盈亏比之间做选择
38:48 - 38:51
EN: You simply decide which is more important to you.
ZH: 你根据自己的情况决定哪个更重要
38:51 - 38:54
EN: Of the variables (probability, risk, and reward),
ZH: 在3个变量（概率、风险和利润）中
38:54 - 38:56
EN: risk and reward are always known.
ZH: 风险和利润一定是已知的
38:56 - 38:58
EN: You know where your stop is.
ZH: 你知道你的止损在哪里
38:58 - 38:59
EN: You know where you want to take profits.
ZH: 你知道止盈目标位在哪里
38:59 - 39:02
EN: Probability is not always known.
ZH: 但概率并不清晰
39:02 - 39:07
EN: However, 10% of the bars on the chart, the probability is 60% or higher
ZH: 然而，K线图上有10%的K线，概率会超过60%
39:07 - 39:09
EN: - for example, a strong breakout.
ZH: ——比如，强势突破的时候
39:09 - 39:17
EN: 90% of the bars on the chart, the probability for a bull
ZH: 而90%的K线，上涨和下跌的概率都在40~60%之间
39:13 - 39:17
EN: or for a bear is going to be between 40% and 60%.
ZH: 而90%的K线，上涨和下跌的概率都在40~60%之间
39:21 - 39:23
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
39:23 - 39:25
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
39:25 - 39:30
EN: This is the third of five videos on the Trader’s Equation and probability.
ZH: 数学期望和概率的第3节课，就先讲到这里