al-brooks-course
30A - Trader’s Equation and Probability
Raw transcript and slide notes for 30A - Trader’s Equation and Probability.
Overview
- Slides: 20
- Transcript segments: 430
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:11
EN: This is the first of five videos on the Trader’s Equation and Probability.
ZH: 接下来的5节课我们来讲数学期望和概率
Slide 001
Time: 00:13
Bilingual Transcript
00:15 - 00:17
EN: Perfect trades cannot exist.
ZH: 完美的交易机会是不存在的
00:18 - 00:21
EN: However, good trades exist, and they’re common.
ZH: 然而，好机会是存在的，并且很常见
00:21 - 00:27
EN: Traders need to be able to structure trades
ZH: 交易者要有构建交易的能力， 使自己获得数学上的优势
00:23 - 00:27
EN: where they have a mathematical advantage and edge.
ZH: 交易者要有构建交易的能力， 使自己获得数学上的优势
00:27 - 00:32
EN: I’m going to talk about the mathematical basis of trades,
ZH: 我会讲解交易的数学基础，也就是交易者方程 （注：即数学期望）
00:31 - 00:32
EN: and that’s the Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 我会讲解交易的数学基础，也就是交易者方程 （注：即数学期望）
Slide 002
Time: 00:34
Bilingual Transcript
00:38 - 00:41
EN: Traders always need an edge when they’re structuring a trade.
ZH: 交易者在构建交易的时候，总是需要一个优势
00:42 - 00:44
EN: That’s a mathematical advantage.
ZH: 那就是数学上的优势
00:45 - 00:48
EN: That means that if they take enough of a particular type of trade,
ZH: 也就是说，如果他们按照某个特定的方法做足够多次数的交易
00:48 - 00:50
EN: they will have a profit over time.
ZH: 随着时间的累积就可以赚到钱
00:53 - 00:56
EN: For example, we have a Buy Climax and a Lower High.
ZH: 例如，抢购高潮之后，高点降低
00:56 - 00:57
EN: Looks like a reversal.
ZH: 看起来有反转机会
00:58 - 01:01
EN: Traders might short below the low of that bar.
ZH: 交易者可能会在这根K线的低点下方做空
01:01 - 01:03
EN: At this point, it’s not a high probability trade.
ZH: 此时，这并不是一笔高胜率的交易
01:04 - 01:08
EN: Traders might place a stop either above this bar
ZH: 交易者把止损放在这根K线上方， 或者放在抢购高潮的高点上方
01:06 - 01:08
EN: or above the top of the Buy Climax.
ZH: 交易者把止损放在这根K线上方， 或者放在抢购高潮的高点上方
01:09 - 01:12
EN: The risk is not big relative to the reward.
ZH: 相对于（潜在的）回报而言，风险并不大
01:13 - 01:16
EN: A lot of beginners like low risk trades.
ZH: 许多新手喜欢低风险的交易
01:16 - 01:17
EN: That’s their greatest concern.
ZH: 风险是他们最关心的事情
01:17 - 01:18
EN: They don’t want to lose money.
ZH: 他们不想亏钱
01:18 - 01:22
EN: Their account size is small, they worked hard to build their account,
ZH: 他们的账户很小，他们努力地积累资金
01:22 - 01:24
EN: and they know if they lose their account,
ZH: 他们知道，如果把账户里的钱亏完了，
01:24 - 01:27
EN: their dream of becoming a professional trader might disappear.
ZH: 他们成为职业交易者的梦想也就破灭了
01:27 - 01:30
EN: In general, beginners like low risk trades.
ZH: 通常来说，新手喜欢低风险的交易
01:31 - 01:36
EN: However, when the risk is small, so is the probability of profit.
ZH: 然而，当风险较小时，赚到钱的概率也较小
01:37 - 01:44
EN: As long as the risk and profit and reward make sense,
ZH: 只要一笔交易的风险、利润和概率是合理的， 长期执行就可以盈利
01:41 - 01:44
EN: the trade is still a very profitable trade,
ZH: 只要一笔交易的风险、利润和概率是合理的， 长期执行就可以盈利
01:44 - 01:48
EN: but you need to balance out the risk, reward, and probability.
ZH: 你需要平衡风险、利润和概率
01:48 - 01:52
EN: That means you have to structure a trade that has a good balance.
ZH: 这意味着你构建的交易必须有良好的平衡
01:55 - 01:58
EN: Some traders prefer higher probability trades,
ZH: 一些交易者更喜欢高胜率交易
01:59 - 02:02
EN: and that means they wait for strong breakouts.
ZH: 也就是说，他们等待强势突破之后再入场
02:02 - 02:09
EN: For example, waiting to sell once you have a pair
ZH: 比如，等看到两根大阴线之后再做空， 可以在它的收盘开仓卖出，
02:06 - 02:09
EN: of consecutive big bear trend bars and selling that close
ZH: 比如，等看到两根大阴线之后再做空， 可以在它的收盘开仓卖出，
02:09 - 02:17
EN: or selling this small Double Top bear flag below
ZH: 或者在这个小双顶熊旗的下方做空； 这是高胜率的交易，然而止损在很上面
02:12 - 02:17
EN: that low is a higher probability trade, but the stop is up here.
ZH: 或者在这个小双顶熊旗的下方做空； 这是高胜率的交易，然而止损在很上面
02:17 - 02:19
EN: The stop is further away, so the risk is greater.
ZH: 止损更远，所以风险更大
02:19 - 02:24
EN: Also, you’re entering later in the trade; there’s less profit remaining.
ZH: 此外，你是在趋势的后期入场，剩余的利润较少
02:24 - 02:30
EN: The risk/reward of entering here is not as good
ZH: 在这里入场的盈亏比，不如在这里入场的盈亏比好
02:27 - 02:30
EN: as the risk/reward of entering here.
ZH: 在这里入场的盈亏比，不如在这里入场的盈亏比好
02:30 - 02:35
EN: However, the probability that you’ll make money is greater here than it is here.
ZH: 然而，你在这里赚钱的概率，比在这里更大
02:35 - 02:36
EN: That’s the tradeoff.
ZH: 这就是代价
02:36 - 02:39
EN: Some traders prefer small risk – in other words,
ZH: 一些交易者喜欢小风险——换句话说，
02:39 - 02:45
EN: they want very good risk/reward equation, and they enter here,
ZH: 他们想要非常好的盈亏比，他们在这里入场，风险比较小
02:43 - 02:45
EN: where they have smaller risk.
ZH: 他们想要非常好的盈亏比，他们在这里入场，风险比较小
02:45 - 02:50
EN: Other traders prefer to win frequently, and they go for high probability trades.
ZH: 其他交易者更喜欢能够经常盈利，他们选择高胜率交易
02:50 - 02:54
EN: However, that means that the risk/reward ratio is worse.
ZH: 然而，代价是盈亏比会变差
02:54 - 02:57
EN: It usually means that the stop is further away.
ZH: 通常这意味着止损更远
02:59 - 03:04
EN: Over the short run (a day or two or three), trading is a zero sum game.
ZH: 从短期来看（一两天或三天），交易是一个零和游戏
03:04 - 03:07
EN: Over the long run (years), it’s not.
ZH: 长期（几年），不是
03:07 - 03:12
EN: But as a trader, you’re trading either for a day, a week, or a month.
ZH: 作为一个交易者，你可能按照日K线，或者周K线、月K线交易
03:12 - 03:16
EN: You’re trying to take money from very smart people, and it’s difficult to do.
ZH: 你尝试从世界上最聪明的人手里赚钱，这很难
03:16 - 03:19
EN: However, that challenge is part of the fun,
ZH: 然而，这种挑战也是乐趣的一部分
03:19 - 03:22
EN: and if you structure your trades properly and manage them properly,
ZH: 如果你正确地构建交易，并正确地管理它们
03:22 - 03:25
EN: you’ll have a very good chance of consistently making money.
ZH: 你就有很大的机会可以稳定盈利
03:29 - 03:34
EN: An edge, a mathematical advantage, is usually fleeting and small.
ZH: 优势，数学上的优势，通常是短暂而微小的
Slide 003
Time: 03:29
Bilingual Transcript
03:34 - 03:40
EN: Even the best traders do not have a very high probability
ZH: 即使是最优秀的交易者，也没有办法一直维持高胜率、高利润
03:38 - 03:40
EN: of making a big profit all the time.
ZH: 即使是最优秀的交易者，也没有办法一直维持高胜率、高利润
03:40 - 03:43
EN: Any advantage that they have is small.
ZH: 他们的优势是微弱的
03:43 - 03:46
EN: However, if they’re consistent and they’re capable
ZH: 然而，如果他们能够维持一致性，
03:46 - 03:54
EN: of consistently trading properly, that small mathematical advantage
ZH: 并且持续正确地交易，那么这种微弱的数学优势 随时间推移，可以累积成很大的利润
03:51 - 03:54
EN: can result in very big profits over time.
ZH: 并且持续正确地交易，那么这种微弱的数学优势 随时间推移，可以累积成很大的利润
03:56 - 04:02
EN: High frequency trading firms (HFT) use algorithms for only days to weeks
ZH: 高频交易机构（HFT）的算法只使用几天到几周
04:02 - 04:05
EN: at a time before switching to a different type of algorithm.
ZH: 然后切换到不同类型的算法
04:06 - 04:08
EN: Here, we have a very Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 这是一个窄震荡区间
04:10 - 04:13
EN: Traders look to buy low, sell high, and scalp.
ZH: 交易者高抛低吸，剥头皮赚快钱
04:14 - 04:18
EN: Everybody wants a perfect trade; however, a perfect trade cannot exist
ZH: 每个人都想要完美的交易； 然而，完美的交易机会是不存在的
04:18 - 04:26
EN: because before long, everyone would discover it and no one would be willing
ZH: 因为很快所有人都会发现（这个方法）， 于是没有人愿意反向交易，这样的机会就不存在了
04:23 - 04:26
EN: to take the other side of the trade, and the trade would stop working.
ZH: 因为很快所有人都会发现（这个方法）， 于是没有人愿意反向交易，这样的机会就不存在了
04:28 - 04:29
EN: Here’s a Trading Range.
ZH: 这是一个震荡区间
04:30 - 04:35
EN: High frequency trading firms would detect that the market’s starting
ZH: 高频交易机构发现市场开始进入震荡区间，
04:33 - 04:39
EN: to enter a Trading Range, and they would start looking
ZH: 高频交易机构发现市场开始进入震荡区间， 于是他们开始高抛低吸，剥头皮、赚快钱
04:36 - 04:39
EN: to buy low and scalp and sell high and scalp,
ZH: 于是他们开始高抛低吸，剥头皮、赚快钱
04:40 - 04:44
EN: because that is what is most profitable when the market is behaving like this.
ZH: 因为当市场处于这种行情是吗，这么做是最能赚钱的方法
04:45 - 04:50
EN: On the other hand, Trading Ranges eventually break out, as this one did here.
ZH: 然而，震荡区间最终会被突破，就像这里一样
04:50 - 04:53
EN: We have a strong bear breakout and a strong follow-through bar.
ZH: 大阴线强势向下跌破，跟随的阴线也很强
04:53 - 04:57
EN: The market is probably going to fall for some kind of a Measured Move,
ZH: 大概率会继续下跌到某个MM目标位
04:57 - 05:00
EN: and traders selling here have a high probability of making money.
ZH: 在这里卖出做空的交易者有很高的概率可以赚钱
05:01 - 05:08
EN: The traders who bought low – for example,
ZH: 而逢低买入的交易者——比如在这里挂限价买单的多头， 现在要亏钱了
05:04 - 05:08
EN: traders who had limit orders to buy here – now are going to lose money.
ZH: 而逢低买入的交易者——比如在这里挂限价买单的多头， 现在要亏钱了
05:10 - 05:14
EN: The algorithms and the style of trading
ZH: 那些算法和策略当市场在震荡的时候可以赚钱，
05:12 - 05:14
EN: that was profitable when the market was doing
ZH: 那些算法和策略当市场在震荡的时候可以赚钱，
05:14 - 05:18
EN: that are no longer profitable once the market begins to trend.
ZH: 当市场进入趋势之后，就不再能盈利
05:19 - 05:22
EN: In this case, the bears will not be able to sell high
ZH: 在这种情况下，空头将无法逢高卖出
05:22 - 05:25
EN: because the market is not high.
ZH: 因为没有“逢高”的机会，只是在不断地下跌
05:24 - 05:25
EN: It’s only going down.
ZH: 因为没有“逢高”的机会，只是在不断地下跌
05:25 - 05:31
EN: And bulls buying low are going to have
ZH: 如果下降通道很窄，逢低买入的多头也没有办法赚到钱
05:28 - 05:31
EN: a hard time making money if the channel down is tight.
ZH: 如果下降通道很窄，逢低买入的多头也没有办法赚到钱
05:31 - 05:34
EN: Instead of buying low, selling high, and scalping,
ZH: 所以高抛低吸剥头皮的方法不再适用
05:34 - 05:38
EN: traders should only sell, and they should swing trade.
ZH: 交易者现在只能做空，最好是做波段交易
05:42 - 05:44
EN: Bear breakout, consecutive bear bars,
ZH: 空头突破，连续阴线
05:44 - 05:47
EN: both closing below the low of the Trading Range.
ZH: 都收盘在前期震荡区间的低点下方
05:47 - 05:50
EN: High probability the market will fall for some kind of a Measured Move,
ZH: 非常大的概率会跌到某个MM目标位
05:50 - 05:52
EN: maybe based on the height of the range,
ZH: 比如把区间的高度往下翻一倍
05:52 - 05:54
EN: maybe based upon the height of the breakout
ZH: 比如把突破的高度往下翻一倍——
05:54 - 05:58
EN: - the open of this bar to the close of that bar, Measured Move down.
ZH: 从这根K线的开盘到那根K线的收盘， 往下翻一倍作为MM目标位
05:58 - 06:02
EN: And then there will be other Measured Moves as the channel unfolds.
ZH: 随着价格在下降通道内运行，后续会有新的MM目标位
06:02 - 06:04
EN: This is a spike and then a pullback,
ZH: 急速下跌，然后反弹，
06:04 - 06:07
EN: and that pullback was the start of a channel.
ZH: 反弹是通道的开始
06:07 - 06:11
EN: The market became a Spike and Channel bear trend, and it’s very tight,
ZH: 市场进入了急速变通道的下降趋势，而且通道很窄
06:11 - 06:15
EN: and when it’s tight, it’s impossible for the bulls to make money,
ZH: 窄下降通道中多头不可能赚得到钱，
06:15 - 06:17
EN: and therefore traders should not buy.
ZH: 所以交易者不应该做多
06:19 - 06:24
EN: And when the channel is tight, it’s impossible for the bulls
ZH: （重复）窄下降通道中多头不可能赚得到钱， 所以交易者不应该做多
06:22 - 06:24
EN: to make money, and therefore traders should not buy.
ZH: （重复）窄下降通道中多头不可能赚得到钱， 所以交易者不应该做多
06:24 - 06:26
EN: Traders looking to sell high cannot sell high
ZH: 空头也无法逢高卖出做空，
06:26 - 06:31
EN: because the market is only pulling back for a bar or two.
ZH: 因为反弹只有一两根K线， 根本不存在“逢高”的机会
06:30 - 06:31
EN: It never gets high.
ZH: 因为反弹只有一两根K线， 根本不存在“逢高”的机会
06:31 - 06:34
EN: Traders have to sell for other reasons, like below bars,
ZH: 空头必须用其它方式入场做空， 比如在K线下方（用突破卖单）
06:34 - 06:38
EN: sell bull closes, or sell breakouts to new lows.
ZH: 或者在K线收盘时卖出，或者在跌破创新低时卖出
06:38 - 06:42
EN: Instead of buying low, selling high, you cannot buy at all.
ZH: 不能再低买高卖了，根本不能买入
06:42 - 06:44
EN: Instead of selling high, you have to sell low
ZH: 也无法逢高卖出，必须在低位追空
06:44 - 06:47
EN: - breakouts of bear flags, attempts to reverse up.
ZH: ——比如反弹，跌破熊旗时卖出做空
06:47 - 06:51
EN: In any case, you’ll be selling near the bottom of the market,
ZH: 总之，你在很低的位置卖出，
06:51 - 06:54
EN: betting that it will go lower, and that is the correct strategy.
ZH: 押注市场还会跌得更低，这是正确的策略
06:58 - 07:03
EN: A perfect trade has a high probability of a big reward with very little risk.
ZH: 一笔完美的交易有很高的胜率，而且盈亏比非常好
Slide 004
Time: 06:59
Bilingual Transcript
07:03 - 07:08
EN: That cannot exist, because there would be nobody
ZH: 那种机会无法存在，因为没有人愿意做对手盘 （注：假如存在完美的做多机会，就没有人愿意做空了）
07:07 - 07:08
EN: to take the other side of the trade.
ZH: 那种机会无法存在，因为没有人愿意做对手盘 （注：假如存在完美的做多机会，就没有人愿意做空了）
07:10 - 07:14
EN: If you have a very high probability of a big reward with very little risk,
ZH: 如果你同时拥有很高的胜率，很大的利润，而风险很小，
07:14 - 07:17
EN: no institution is going to take the other side,
ZH: 那就没有机构愿意做对手盘
07:17 - 07:21
EN: because if your trade is perfectly good for you, it’s perfectly bad for him.
ZH: 因为如果一笔交易对你而言是完美无缺的， 那么对他们来说就是糟糕透顶的——
07:21 - 07:26
EN: He has a low probability of making only a small reward with a very big risk.
ZH: 他的胜率很低，利润很小，但风险很大
07:28 - 07:34
EN: You cannot get all three variables
ZH: 你不可能同时把3个变量——概率，利润，风险—— 都掌握在自己这一边
07:30 - 07:34
EN: - probability, reward, and risk – on your side.
ZH: 你不可能同时把3个变量——概率，利润，风险—— 都掌握在自己这一边
07:34 - 07:38
EN: You can usually get one, often you can get two, but you can never get all three.
ZH: 你通常可以得到一个或两个，但不可能得到全部
07:38 - 07:44
EN: Usually the tradeoff is between high probability versus risk/reward.
ZH: 通常需要权衡概率和盈亏比 （注：盈亏比就是利润/风险）
07:44 - 07:49
EN: Some traders want high risk/reward that has a lower probability of making money.
ZH: 一些交易者想要高盈亏比，但是胜率就会比较低
07:49 - 07:59
EN: Other traders want high probability, but that usually comes
ZH: 一些交易者想要高胜率， 那盈亏比就比较差——通常指风险较大，止损较远
07:54 - 07:59
EN: with a worse risk/reward profile – usually bigger risk, a stop further away.
ZH: 那盈亏比就比较差——通常指风险较大，止损较远
08:02 - 08:05
EN: Again, perfect trades cannot exist because someone has
ZH: 再次强调，不存在完美的交易机会，
08:05 - 08:11
EN: to take the other side of the trade, and no firm is going to take a trade
ZH: 因为必须有对手盘交易才能成立； 如果一笔交易胜率很低，利润很小，
08:09 - 08:11
EN: with very little probability of making money,
ZH: 因为必须有对手盘交易才能成立； 如果一笔交易胜率很低，利润很小，
08:11 - 08:15
EN: and they only stand to gain a small reward, and the risk is big.
ZH: 风险又很大，就不会有机构去做
08:16 - 08:20
EN: Any trade that approaches perfection will be traded very quickly,
ZH: 任何接近“完美”的交易机会都会很快被执行， （注：比如突然暴涨暴跌）
08:20 - 08:23
EN: and the opportunity will not last long.
ZH: 这样的机会转瞬即逝
08:27 - 08:28
EN: Trading Range.
ZH: 震荡区间
08:29 - 08:35
EN: Setups are never all that clear, so the probability
ZH: 完全没有特别清晰的机会， 所以概率不那么高，但风险很小
08:31 - 08:35
EN: is not all that high, but the risk is small.
ZH: 完全没有特别清晰的机会， 所以概率不那么高，但风险很小
08:37 - 08:42
EN: Strong bear breakout, the probability is high
ZH: 强势的空头突破，很大的概率市场会进一步下跌
08:39 - 08:42
EN: that the market is going down further.
ZH: 强势的空头突破，很大的概率市场会进一步下跌
08:42 - 08:45
EN: However, the risk is usually bigger.
ZH: 然而，风险通常更大
08:45 - 08:46
EN: The stop is further away.
ZH: 止损更远
08:49 - 08:52
EN: Breakout, high probability, worse risk/reward.
ZH: 突破，高胜率，但是盈亏比不好
08:52 - 08:56
EN: Trading Range, low probability, but better risk/reward.
ZH: 震荡区间，低胜率，但盈亏比更好一些
09:01 - 09:01
EN: Bear channel.
ZH: 下降通道
09:01 - 09:04
EN: It’s a breakout on a higher timeframe chart.
ZH: 它在更高的时间周期上是一个突破
09:04 - 09:09
EN: The probability is still good, but it’s not quite
ZH: 胜率仍然较高，但不如在突破期间做空的胜率那么高
09:07 - 09:09
EN: as good as selling during the breakout.
ZH: 胜率仍然较高，但不如在突破期间做空的胜率那么高
09:10 - 09:16
EN: Again, the stop when you’re in a trend is usually further away
ZH: 再次强调，趋势中的止损通常比震荡区间中的止损更远
09:14 - 09:16
EN: than it would be within a Trading Range.
ZH: 再次强调，趋势中的止损通常比震荡区间中的止损更远
09:16 - 09:20
EN: So the risk is greater when you’re trading in a trend,
ZH: 所以当你在趋势中交易时，风险更大，
09:20 - 09:23
EN: but the probability of making money is greater as well.
ZH: 但赚钱的概率也更高
Slide 005
Time: 09:25
Bilingual Transcript
09:27 - 09:30
EN: The market is in a cycle.
ZH: 市场处于循环的周期
09:30 - 09:34
EN: It’s in a Trading Range, and then it breaks out, enters a trend.
ZH: 它处于震荡区间，然后突破，进入趋势
09:34 - 09:36
EN: The trend eventually becomes a Trading Range again,
ZH: 趋势最终会再次变成震荡区间
09:36 - 09:40
EN: and then it decides whether to reverse into an opposite trend
ZH: 然后市场决定是否反转成相反的趋势
09:40 - 09:43
EN: or to resume the trend, break below the Trading Range.
ZH: 还是跌破震荡区间、恢复原来的下降趋势
09:45 - 09:49
EN: Traders should not expect any strategy to last for too long,
ZH: 交易者不应该期望任何策略会持续太久，
09:49 - 09:53
EN: because the market will constantly alternate
ZH: 因为市场会在震荡和趋势之间不断交替
09:51 - 09:53
EN: between a Trading Range and a trend.
ZH: 因为市场会在震荡和趋势之间不断交替
09:53 - 09:58
EN: The trend can be up or down, and when you have a Trading Range,
ZH: 趋势可以是向上或向下； 震荡区间也可以向上或向下突破
09:56 - 09:58
EN: the breakout can be down or up.
ZH: 趋势可以是向上或向下； 震荡区间也可以向上或向下突破
10:02 - 10:06
EN: Once too many computers begin to detect what the market is doing,
ZH: 一旦有太多的计算机检测到了市场在做什么
10:06 - 10:09
EN: the market usually does something else.
ZH: 市场通常就会开始进入新的周期
10:09 - 10:13
EN: For example, if it’s in a Trading Range, it eventually breaks out,
ZH: 例如，如果它处于震荡区间，它最终会突破；
10:13 - 10:18
EN: and if everybody starts trend trading, eventually no one will take
ZH: 如果每个人都开始按照趋势交易， 没有人愿意逆势交易时，
10:17 - 10:20
EN: the other side of the trade and the market starts to go sideways.
ZH: 如果每个人都开始按照趋势交易， 没有人愿意逆势交易时， 市场就会开始横盘震荡
10:23 - 10:25
EN: Breakouts are brief.
ZH: 突破是短暂的
10:25 - 10:32
EN: On any chart, on any timeframe, only about 5-10% of the bars
ZH: 在任何K线图上，在任何时间周期内， 只有大约5%~10%的K线处于强势突破
10:30 - 10:32
EN: on the chart are in strong breakouts.
ZH: 在任何K线图上，在任何时间周期内， 只有大约5%~10%的K线处于强势突破
10:32 - 10:37
EN: For example here, strong breakout, and another strong breakout here.
ZH: 例如这里，强势突破； 这里也是强势突破
10:37 - 10:39
EN: Lots of breakouts here, but they all failed.
ZH: 这里有很多突破，但都失败了
10:40 - 10:46
EN: But in general, 5-10% of the bars on a chart are in a successful breakout,
ZH: 总体而言，K线图上只有大约5%~10%的K线是成功的突破
10:46 - 10:49
EN: so the opportunity to make money during a breakout is brief.
ZH: 所以在突破期间赚钱的机会是短暂的
10:52 - 10:56
EN: And once you’re in a channel, it eventually will start flattening out
ZH: 一旦市场进入通道，就会慢慢变平，
10:56 - 11:02
EN: and evolve into a Trading Range, waiting for the next breakout up or down.
ZH: 最终进入震荡区间，等待下一次向上或向下的突破
Slide 006
Time: 11:04
Bilingual Transcript
11:06 - 11:12
EN: Entering a trade during a strong breakout
ZH: 在强势突破期间入场，是最接近完美交易的时机
11:09 - 11:12
EN: is as close as you get to a perfect trade.
ZH: 在强势突破期间入场，是最接近完美交易的时机
11:12 - 11:15
EN: However, the opportunity does not last long.
ZH: 然而，这样的机会不会持续太久
11:15 - 11:22
EN: Traders who are selling as this is falling, if they’re sensing
ZH: 在市场下跌时卖出的交易者， 如果他们感到市场在迅速下跌，突破很可能会成功，
11:18 - 11:22
EN: that the market is falling fast and likely to break out successfully,
ZH: 在市场下跌时卖出的交易者， 如果他们感到市场在迅速下跌，突破很可能会成功，
11:22 - 11:25
EN: they have a brief opportunity to sell here or here
ZH: 他们在这里或这里有短暂的做空机会
11:25 - 11:27
EN: with a stop that’s not very far away.
ZH: 止损并不远
11:28 - 11:31
EN: The risk is not great, and the probability of profit is high,
ZH: 风险不大，赚到钱的概率很高
11:31 - 11:33
EN: and the potential for reward is big.
ZH: 潜在的利润也很大
11:33 - 11:36
EN: But that is only a very brief opportunity.
ZH: 但那只是一个转瞬即逝的机会
11:41 - 11:46
EN: Once everyone sees the opportunity, you get some profit-taking,
ZH: 一旦所有人都看到了机会，就会有人止盈
11:46 - 11:53
EN: and the market then gets a pullback and the strong breakout gets replaced
ZH: 然后市场会回调/反弹， 强势突破（的确定性）就会被某种不确定所取代
11:51 - 11:55
EN: by some uncertainty, and eventually a channel.
ZH: 然后市场会回调/反弹， 强势突破（的确定性）就会被某种不确定所取代 最终形成通道
11:59 - 12:02
EN: Institutions detect the quick momentum down,
ZH: 机构检测到了快速下跌的动能，
12:02 - 12:06
EN: and they’re selling quickly, and that is creating the breakout.
ZH: 于是（电脑程序）迅速大量卖出，制造了大阴线
12:07 - 12:10
EN: As I said, it’s a brief opportunity for a trade
ZH: 正如之前所说，这是一个短暂的交易机会
12:10 - 12:13
EN: that is as close as you can get to perfection.
ZH: 最接近完美的机会
12:13 - 12:15
EN: It does not last long.
ZH: 它不会持续很久
12:19 - 12:22
EN: As the breakout grows, the risk increases,
ZH: 随着突破的增长，风险增加，
12:22 - 12:25
EN: and all of a sudden it becomes less perfect.
ZH: 突然之间它变得不那么完美了
12:26 - 12:30
EN: There’s also a reasonable chance that a breakout will fail.
ZH: 而且存在突破失败的可能性
12:30 - 12:32
EN: In general, if you have a strong breakout like this,
ZH: 通常像这样的强势突破，
12:32 - 12:36
EN: there’s a 40% chance that it will fail and reverse back up.
ZH: 有40%的概率会失败，然后涨回去
12:36 - 12:41
EN: 60% chance it’ll go down at least for a Measured Move.
ZH: 60%的概率至少会跌到一个MM目标位
12:41 - 12:43
EN: That’s when the breakout is strong like this.
ZH: 那是指突破像这样强势的时候——
12:43 - 12:48
EN: We have a breakout, another breakout bar, both closing below the Trading Range,
ZH: 大阴线跌破，又一根阴线，全都收盘在震荡区间的下方
12:48 - 12:50
EN: and then no bull bar for the follow-through.
ZH: 跟随K线中没有阳线
12:50 - 12:53
EN: We have dojis here, so weak reversal attempt.
ZH: 有几个小十字星，所以是很弱的反转尝试
12:53 - 12:55
EN: This is a 60% trade.
ZH: 这是一笔60%胜率的交易
12:55 - 12:58
EN: 60% chance it’s going to fall for at least a Measured Move.
ZH: 60%的概率至少会跌到一个MM目标位
13:03 - 13:07
EN: Any time a trade approaches perfection, everyone sees it,
ZH: 如果出现了一个接近完美的交易机会，每个人都看到了
Slide 007
Time: 13:05
Bilingual Transcript
13:07 - 13:09
EN: and everyone starts trading in that direction.
ZH: 每个人都开始朝那个方向交易
13:09 - 13:14
EN: Early in this breakout, everyone is selling, knowing that the probability
ZH: 比如在这个突破的早期，每个人都在卖出，
13:14 - 13:18
EN: is high of making money and the stop is not far away.
ZH: 因为他们知道赚钱的概率很高，而且止损不远
13:21 - 13:26
EN: The bar is big because everyone sees this as potentially a perfect trade.
ZH: 阴线体积很大，因为每个人都认为这可能是一个完美的交易机会
13:27 - 13:29
EN: There is a risk factor, and part of it is time.
ZH: 时间是风险的因素之一
13:29 - 13:38
EN: The stop might not be far away, but you have the risk
ZH: 尽管止损不远，但是在评估突破是否会成功的时候， 你有决策错误的风险
13:32 - 13:38
EN: of making mistakes in your decision, assessing whether
ZH: 尽管止损不远，但是在评估突破是否会成功的时候， 你有决策错误的风险
13:36 - 13:38
EN: or not the breakout will be successful.
ZH: 尽管止损不远，但是在评估突破是否会成功的时候， 你有决策错误的风险
13:38 - 13:44
EN: And a lot of traders are uncomfortable making those quick decisions
ZH: 很多交易者不适应快速做出决定并且立刻下单，
13:42 - 13:51
EN: and placing those trades, and therefore they’ll wait
ZH: 很多交易者不适应快速做出决定并且立刻下单， 所以他们会等待，在看到连续强势阴线收盘之后， 然后再这里开仓做空，尽管此时机会已经不再完美
13:45 - 13:51
EN: to see a couple strong closes and then sell a close down here,
ZH: 所以他们会等待，在看到连续强势阴线收盘之后， 然后再这里开仓做空，尽管此时机会已经不再完美
13:49 - 13:51
EN: knowing that it’s less perfect.
ZH: 所以他们会等待，在看到连续强势阴线收盘之后， 然后再这里开仓做空，尽管此时机会已经不再完美
13:51 - 13:55
EN: Stop is now further away, but you still have a high probability of a profit.
ZH: 现在的止损更远了，但仍然有很高的概率可以赚钱
13:59 - 14:03
EN: When a trade is close to perfect, you get a huge trend bar
ZH: 当接近完美的机会出现时，会突然出现一根巨大的趋势K线，
14:03 - 14:08
EN: because everybody is quickly taking the trade, and as the bar becomes big,
ZH: 因为每个人/电脑都在迅速下单交易； 随着K线体积变大，
14:08 - 14:12
EN: the stop gets further away, and that increases the risk.
ZH: 止损变得更远，风险就增加了
14:12 - 14:16
EN: And if you enter down here, not only is the stop further away,
ZH: 如果你在这里入场，不仅止损更远了
14:16 - 14:18
EN: but there’s less reward remaining in the trade,
ZH: 而且交易中剩余的利润也更少了
14:18 - 14:21
EN: so the risk/reward ratio is becoming worse.
ZH: 所以盈亏比变差了
Slide 008
Time: 14:25
Bilingual Transcript
14:26 - 14:28
EN: No matter how good you are, your edge,
ZH: 不管你多么厉害，
14:28 - 14:31
EN: your mathematical advantage is always going to be small.
ZH: 你在数学上的优势都是微弱的
14:31 - 14:36
EN: The key to making money consistently is learning
ZH: 稳定盈利的关键是：学会如何持续地做好每一笔交易
14:34 - 14:36
EN: how to become consistently good.
ZH: 稳定盈利的关键是：学会如何持续地做好每一笔交易
14:37 - 14:38
EN: No one’s going to give you money.
ZH: 没有人会送钱给你
14:38 - 14:43
EN: Trading is always going to be hard, but that’s part of the fun, the challenge.
ZH: 交易总是很难，但这也是乐趣和挑战的一部分
14:45 - 14:48
EN: Traders always wonder if they have to be perfect.
ZH: 交易者总是想知道他们是否必须要完美才行
14:48 - 14:50
EN: They do not have to be perfect.
ZH: 他们不必完美
14:50 - 14:54
EN: All they have to do is trade well consistently and learn
ZH: 他们所需要做的只是持续地做好交易，
14:54 - 14:57
EN: how to structure trades where there’s a mathematical advantage,
ZH: 学习如何构建有数学优势的交易，
14:57 - 15:02
EN: use appropriate stops and exits, and manage the trades correctly.
ZH: 使用合理的止损和止盈，并正确地管理交易
Slide 009
Time: 15:05
Bilingual Transcript
15:06 - 15:09
EN: Whenever a trader takes a trade, he’s always thinking,
ZH: 每当一个交易者在做交易的时候，他总是在想：
15:09 - 15:11
EN: “Am I going to make money if I take this trade?”
ZH: “如果我做这笔交易，我会赚钱吗？”
15:13 - 15:17
EN: At least subconsciously, traders are only going to take a trade
ZH: 至少在潜意识里，只有交易者认为 【赚钱的概率 乘以 利润】，
15:16 - 15:21
EN: if they believe the probability of making money times the size
ZH: 至少在潜意识里，只有交易者认为 【赚钱的概率 乘以 利润】， 显著大于【亏钱的概率 乘以 亏损】的时候
15:20 - 15:26
EN: of the reward is significantly greater than the chance
ZH: 显著大于【亏钱的概率 乘以 亏损】的时候 他们才会进行这笔交易
15:24 - 15:28
EN: of losing money times the risk, and that is the Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 他们才会进行这笔交易 而那就是数学期望
15:33 - 15:36
EN: I’m going to talk about the Trader’s Equation now.
ZH: 接下来我就来讲数学期望
Slide 010
Time: 15:35
Bilingual Transcript
No transcript segment aligned to this slide.
Slide 011
Time: 15:37
Bilingual Transcript
15:40 - 15:42
EN: Traders only take a trade if they believe that the probability
ZH: 只有当交易者相信【赚钱的概率 * 潜在利润】 （注：*代表乘法符号）
15:42 - 15:46
EN: of making money times the potential reward is significantly greater
ZH: 显著大于【亏钱的概率 * 风险】的时候
15:46 - 15:49
EN: than the probability of losing money times the risk.
ZH: 他们才会进行这笔交易
15:50 - 15:51
EN: You know what the reward is.
ZH: 你知道利润是多少
15:51 - 15:52
EN: That’s your profit target.
ZH: 因为你有止盈的目标位
15:52 - 15:55
EN: That’s the money you’re hoping to make.
ZH: 那是你希望可以赚到的钱
15:55 - 15:56
EN: And you know the risk as well.
ZH: 你也知道风险是多少
15:56 - 15:59
EN: You know where your stop is, so you know how much money you’re risking.
ZH: 你知道你的止损在哪里，所以你知道你冒了多少风险
15:59 - 16:02
EN: What you never know is the probability.
ZH: 你永远不知道的是概率
16:02 - 16:09
EN: However, it’s safe to assume that the probability
ZH: 然而，假设概率在40%到60%之间， 永远是一个安全的做法
16:06 - 16:09
EN: is always going to be between 40% and 60%.
ZH: 然而，假设概率在40%到60%之间， 永远是一个安全的做法
16:09 - 16:17
EN: It’s closer to 60% during strong breakouts, and then in Trading Ranges
ZH: 在强势突破期间，概率接近60%； 在震荡区间和较弱的趋势中，概率相对更低
16:14 - 16:17
EN: and weaker trends, the probability is less.
ZH: 在震荡区间和较弱的趋势中，概率相对更低
16:17 - 16:19
EN: In a Trading Range, for example,
ZH: 比如在震荡区间中，
16:19 - 16:23
EN: it sometimes is only 40% unless you use a wide stop and scale in.
ZH: 有时候概率只有40%，除非你使用较宽的止损，并且加仓
16:26 - 16:28
EN: This is the Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 这就是数学期望
16:28 - 16:32
EN: If it’s positive, then it makes mathematical sense to take the trade.
ZH: 如果它是正的（大于0）， 那么这笔交易在数学上就是合理的
16:32 - 16:40
EN: You can even lose 60% of the time and still make money
ZH: 就算你在60%的时间里亏损， 如果盈亏比足够好（在40%的时候大赚）， 就抵消了胜率的不足，仍然可以盈利
16:35 - 16:40
EN: if the risk/reward ratio is good enough to offset that low probability.
ZH: 如果盈亏比足够好（在40%的时候大赚）， 就抵消了胜率的不足，仍然可以盈利
16:43 - 16:45
EN: Here’s the Emini, a 5-minute chart,
ZH: 这是ES（标普股指期货）的5分钟图
Slide 012
Time: 16:45
Bilingual Transcript
16:45 - 16:48
EN: and I want to talk about 10 theoretical trades.
ZH: 我来讲解10笔理论上的交易机会
16:49 - 16:54
EN: Assume you take 10 trades and your profit target is 4 points,
ZH: 假设你做10笔交易，你的利润目标是4个点
16:54 - 16:56
EN: and you use a stop that’s 2 points away.
ZH: 并且你把止损放在2个点之外
16:56 - 17:01
EN: So your reward is twice as big as your risk (4 is twice as big as 2).
ZH: 所以你的利润是风险的两倍（4是2的两倍）
17:01 - 17:06
EN: And let’s say you only win 40% of the trades, so of the 10 trades,
ZH: 假设你的胜率只有40%， 也就是说，在这10笔交易中，
17:06 - 17:09
EN: you only win four times, and six times you do not win.
ZH: 只有4次赚到了4个点，有6次没有达到目标
17:09 - 17:12
EN: Those six times might be small losses, they might be small wins.
ZH: 那6次可能是小亏，也可能是小赚、打平
17:12 - 17:17
EN: Some of them will hit the stop, but none will be more
ZH: 其中一些会打到止损，但不会超过2个点， 因为你设置好了2个点的止损
17:15 - 17:17
EN: than 2 points because you have a 2-point stop.
ZH: 其中一些会打到止损，但不会超过2个点， 因为你设置好了2个点的止损
17:19 - 17:24
EN: For example, let’s say you sell below this bear inside bar, and you sell here.
ZH: 例如，假设你在这个空头孕线的下方卖出， 突破卖单会在这里成交
17:24 - 17:28
EN: You place a limit order to take profits at 4 points, and you get filled here.
ZH: 你在下方4个点的距离挂了止盈的限价买单， 会在这里成交
17:28 - 17:30
EN: You have a stop 2 points above.
ZH: 你的止损在上方2个点的距离
17:30 - 17:35
EN: You’re risking 2 points, and you made your 4 points
ZH: 你冒了2个点的风险，在这个红色框框的下沿赚到了4个点
17:33 - 17:35
EN: at the bottom of this red box.
ZH: 你冒了2个点的风险，在这个红色框框的下沿赚到了4个点
17:38 - 17:40
EN: Let’s say you see the reversal.
ZH: 假设你看到了反转机会
17:40 - 17:43
EN: You think of it as a Wedge and then a pretty good reversal.
ZH: 你认为这是一个楔形底，然后是一个相当好的反转机会
17:43 - 17:48
EN: You think it’s going higher, and you buy on a stop
ZH: 你认为市场会上涨，于是在这根反弹阳线的上方买入， 你的突破买单会在这里成交
17:45 - 17:48
EN: above this bull pullback bar here, and you get filled there.
ZH: 你认为市场会上涨，于是在这根反弹阳线的上方买入， 你的突破买单会在这里成交
17:48 - 17:51
EN: Again, you place a stop 2 points down.
ZH: 同样，你在下方2个点的距离设置了止损（突破卖单）
17:51 - 17:54
EN: You place a limit order to take profits 4 points up,
ZH: 在上方4个点的地方设置了止盈的限价卖单，
17:54 - 17:56
EN: and you get filled right there.
ZH: 然后在这里成交
17:56 - 17:58
EN: This is another profitable trade.
ZH: 这又是一笔盈利
17:58 - 18:01
EN: You made 4 points; you risked 2 points.
ZH: 冒2个点的风险，赚到了4个点
18:02 - 18:03
EN: Your stop is not hit.
ZH: 你的止损没有被打掉
Slide 013
Time: 18:05
Bilingual Transcript
18:06 - 18:08
EN: And let’s say you sold here, took profits here.
ZH: 假设你在这里卖出，在这里止盈
18:08 - 18:12
EN: Sold here, take 4 points profit here, here, here.
ZH: 在这里卖出，在这里、这里、这里止盈，每次赚4个点
18:15 - 18:18
EN: On the way up, you bought above this inside bar, took profits here.
ZH: 在上涨途中，你在这根多头孕线上方买入，在这里止盈
18:18 - 18:20
EN: You bought above here, took profits here.
ZH: 你在它的上方买入，在这里止盈
18:21 - 18:23
EN: Many profitable 4-point trades.
ZH: 很多笔交易可以赚4个点
18:25 - 18:28
EN: On the other hand, if you bought here,
ZH: 然而，如果你在这里买入
18:28 - 18:32
EN: hoping for a reversal up, it did not quite make 4 points.
ZH: 希望市场反转上涨，但是没有达到4个点
18:32 - 18:38
EN: You sold on the reversal down, thinking it’s a minor reversal
ZH: 你在这里卖出做空，认为这只是小反弹， 押注下降趋势会恢复
18:36 - 18:38
EN: and the bear trend would probably try to resume.
ZH: 你在这里卖出做空，认为这只是小反弹， 押注下降趋势会恢复
18:38 - 18:40
EN: You made less than 4 points.
ZH: 这里你赚不到4个点
18:41 - 18:43
EN: And let’s say you see this as a potential Double Bottom,
ZH: 假设你认为这是一个潜在的双底
18:43 - 18:45
EN: and you bought above this bull bar.
ZH: 然后你在这个阳线上方买入
18:45 - 18:48
EN: You put your stop either below the low of the signal bar,
ZH: 你把止损放在信号K线的低点下方
18:48 - 18:52
EN: or maybe the low of the bear trend, or you just rely on your 2-point stop,
ZH: 或者下降趋势的低点下方， 或者你只是放在2个点外面
18:52 - 18:56
EN: and let’s say you get stopped out here for a 2-point loss.
ZH: 假设你在这里止损，亏了2个点
18:56 - 18:59
EN: And then here as well, you got a High 2 bull flag.
ZH: 然后在这里也是，你看到了一个高2牛旗
18:59 - 19:01
EN: You buy, and then you get a bear reversal bar.
ZH: 买入之后，你看到了这根反转的阴线
19:01 - 19:05
EN: You either exit below that bar or you rely on your 2-point stop.
ZH: 你要么在那根K线下方离场，要么依赖2个点的止损
19:06 - 19:10
EN: You lost 2 points here, you lost 2 points here, you lost 2 points there.
ZH: 你在这里亏了2个点，在这里亏了2个点， 在那里亏了2个点
Slide 014
Time: 19:15
Bilingual Transcript
19:15 - 19:18
EN: We have a strong trend down, strong trend up.
ZH: 强下降趋势，强上涨趋势
19:18 - 19:19
EN: It’s easier to make money.
ZH: 这种行情赚钱更容易
19:20 - 19:24
EN: Reasonable swing trades should win 40% or more of the time,
ZH: 如果是合理的波段交易机会， 胜率应该有40%或更高
19:24 - 19:27
EN: and because of the strong trend, we have 10 trades
ZH: 由于趋势很强，我们做的10笔交易中，
19:27 - 19:32
EN: - seven of them were winners, and only three of them were losers.
ZH: 其中7笔赚钱，3笔亏钱
19:34 - 19:38
EN: On the other hand, let’s say instead of 70% win,
ZH: 然而，我们假设胜率不是70%那么高
19:38 - 19:44
EN: let’s say only four were winners, so you had four trades, each making 4 points.
ZH: 假设只有4笔赚钱，每笔赚4个点
19:44 - 19:47
EN: Your total profit on the winning trades is 16 points.
ZH: 总共的利润就是16个点
19:47 - 19:50
EN: And let’s say you had six losers that hit your stop.
ZH: 假设6笔亏损的交易全部打到了止损
19:50 - 19:53
EN: You would lose 12 points.
ZH: 总共的亏损是12个点
19:53 - 19:56
EN: Your net profit would be 16 minus 12, 4 points.
ZH: 你的净利润是16减12=4个点
19:56 - 19:58
EN: Greater than zero.
ZH: 大于零
19:58 - 20:00
EN: You have a positive Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 你的数学期望是正的
20:01 - 20:04
EN: You have 40% winners times 4 points.
ZH: 40%的胜率 * 4个点 （=1.6）
20:04 - 20:08
EN: That is greater than 60% losers times 2 points.
ZH: 大于60% * 2个点 （=1.2）
20:08 - 20:12
EN: That’s a positive Trader’s Equation, so the strategy
ZH: 数学期望为正，
20:12 - 20:15
EN: that you are employing here makes sense mathematically,
ZH: 所以你在这里采用的交易策略在数学上是合理的
20:15 - 20:19
EN: and over time, you have a very good chance of consistently making money.
ZH: 随着时间的推移，你有很大的机会可以持续赚钱
20:23 - 20:26
EN: The math is actually better than what I just described because
ZH: 实际上的数学期望比刚才描述的更好，
Slide 015
Time: 20:25
Bilingual Transcript
20:26 - 20:30
EN: if you’re swing trading, you’re not going to be taking profits at 4 points.
ZH: 因为如果你在做波段交易的话，你不会只赚4个点就止盈
20:30 - 20:34
EN: You’ll hold onto the trade until it no longer makes sense to hold onto it
ZH: 你会坚定持有，直到这笔交易的前提不再成立——
20:34 - 20:37
EN: - for example, until there’s an opposite signal or until the end of the day.
ZH: 比如，直到出现相反的信号，或者直到收盘
20:38 - 20:42
EN: Your winners, then, many of them will be much more than 4 points.
ZH: 在盈利的交易中，很多都远远不止4个点
20:42 - 20:46
EN: Also, 60% of the time you’re not making 4 points.
ZH: 此外，60%的时候你赚不到4个点，
20:46 - 20:52
EN: That does not mean you’re losing 2 points on each
ZH: 这并不代表在那60%的时候一定都会亏2个点
20:49 - 20:52
EN: of those six losing trades out of 10.
ZH: 这并不代表在那60%的时候一定都会亏2个点
20:52 - 20:55
EN: Some of the traders will be 2-point losers, some will be 1 point losers,
ZH: 一些交易会亏2个点，一些交易亏1个点
20:55 - 20:58
EN: some will be 1 point winners, some will be 2 point winners.
ZH: 有些赚1个点，有些赚2个点
20:58 - 21:02
EN: Those 60% of trades when you’re not making
ZH: 在没有赚到4个点的那60%的交易里，
21:02 - 21:05
EN: your profit target balance each other out.
ZH: 总的来说是打平的
21:05 - 21:08
EN: Some are small winners, some are small losers.
ZH: 有一些小赚，有一些小亏
21:08 - 21:12
EN: You’re not going to have 60% of the time hitting your 2-point stop.
ZH: 并不是所有60%的交易都会打到2个点的止损
21:15 - 21:19
EN: I want to give you an example using the euro versus the dollar Forex market.
ZH: 接下来我用欧元兑美元的案例来讲解
Slide 016
Time: 21:15
Bilingual Transcript
21:19 - 21:20
EN: Here’s a 5-minute chart.
ZH: 这是5分钟图
21:20 - 21:23
EN: I want to talk about five possible trades.
ZH: 我来讲5个潜在的交易机会
21:24 - 21:30
EN: Assume you’re using a profit target of 40 pips and a protective stop of 20 pips,
ZH: 假设你把止盈目标设置为40 pips， 保护性止损设置为20 pips
21:30 - 21:33
EN: and let’s say you only win 40% of the time.
ZH: 并且假设你的胜率只有40%
21:33 - 21:37
EN: 40% of five trades, that means you’re winning two trades out of the five.
ZH: 5笔交易的40%，就是说你有两笔交易赚到了40 pips
21:38 - 21:41
EN: We have a strong bear trend, and let’s say you sold here,
ZH: 强下降趋势，假设你在这里卖出做空
21:41 - 21:44
EN: and you placed a limit order to buy back with a 40-pip profit,
ZH: 你在下方40 pips的距离设置止盈的限价买单
21:44 - 21:47
EN: and you have a stop 20 pips up.
ZH: 止损放在上方20 pips的地方
21:47 - 21:49
EN: Here, the market quickly went down to your target,
ZH: 这里，市场迅速下跌到了你的目标
21:49 - 21:53
EN: and you’d exit with a 40-pip profit at the bottom of this red box.
ZH: 你可以在这个红色框框的底部赚40 pips离场
21:55 - 21:59
EN: We have a very strong reversal up after three pushes down – one, two, three.
ZH: 在3次下跌后有非常强势的反转上涨——1，2，3
21:59 - 22:01
EN: Probably we’ll try to get a second leg up.
ZH: 大概率会有第2段上涨
22:01 - 22:05
EN: Let’s say you place a buy stop order above the high of this bull bar,
ZH: 假设你在这个阳线的高点上方， 用突破买单买入做多
22:05 - 22:08
EN: and you place a stop 20 pips down.
ZH: 止损放在下面20 pips
22:09 - 22:13
EN: The market turned back down, but it did not quite reach a 20 pip stop.
ZH: 市场回调，但没有打到20 pips的止损
22:13 - 22:18
EN: It resumed up for a second leg, and you would’ve been filled
ZH: 然后恢复上涨，你在入场点上方40 pips距离的限价卖单
22:17 - 22:20
EN: with your limit order 40 pips above your entry.
ZH: 然后恢复上涨，你在入场点上方40 pips距离的限价卖单 会在这里成交
22:20 - 22:21
EN: Another profitable trade.
ZH: 这是第2笔盈利的交易
22:21 - 22:24
EN: You buy here, stop just down here.
ZH: 在这里买入，止损在这个位置
22:24 - 22:28
EN: This did not reach it, and you exit up here with 40 pips’ profit.
ZH: 没有被打到，最终在这里赚40 pips离场
Slide 017
Time: 22:30
Bilingual Transcript
22:32 - 22:35
EN: The bears made 40 pips here.
ZH: 在这里做空赚了40 pips
22:37 - 22:39
EN: The bulls made 40 pips here.
ZH: 在这里做多又赚了40 pips
22:39 - 22:42
EN: And again, the bulls made 40 pips here.
ZH: 再一次，这里做多可以转到40 pips
22:42 - 22:46
EN: A High 2 bull flag, two legs down, a test of the top of this range,
ZH: 高2牛旗，两段回调，测试这个区间的上沿
22:46 - 22:50
EN: and it went up 40 pips before the stop was hit.
ZH: 没有打到止损，上涨了40 pips
22:52 - 22:56
EN: On the other hand, let’s say you sold below this reversal bar.
ZH: 然而，假设你在这个反转K线下方卖出做空
22:56 - 22:59
EN: The bulls tried to create a bull trend, and the market reversed back down.
ZH: 多头尝试向上突破，但是回落
23:01 - 23:03
EN: However, the market reversed up from a new low.
ZH: 然而，市场从新低反转上涨
23:03 - 23:07
EN: You had a profit target down here to take profits at 40 pips.
ZH: 你40个pips的目标位在这里
23:07 - 23:11
EN: You had a stop up there, 20 pips above.
ZH: 上方20个pips的止损在这里
23:11 - 23:12
EN: You sold here.
ZH: 你是在这里开仓做空的
23:12 - 23:14
EN: It did not hit your stop; however,
ZH: 市场还没有打到你的止损；
23:14 - 23:17
EN: this reversal is a good enough reason to exit.
ZH: 然而，强势的大阳线反转，是一个充分的离场理由
23:17 - 23:20
EN: You’d exit above the high of this bull bar,
ZH: 于是你在这个阳线的高点上方离场
23:20 - 23:24
EN: which is maybe a pip or two profit from this short.
ZH: 最终这笔交易可能赚了1或2 pips
23:25 - 23:28
EN: And then again here, let’s say you bought above this bar, a Wedge
ZH: 假设你在这根K线上方买入，因为是楔形底——
23:28 - 23:35
EN: - one, two, three, decent bull bar – and you put your stop
ZH: 1，2，3，相当不错的阳线 然后你把止损放在日内的低点下方，这里
23:32 - 23:35
EN: below the low of the day, below here.
ZH: 然后你把止损放在日内的低点下方，这里
23:35 - 23:36
EN: You were quickly stopped out.
ZH: 很快就被止损离场了
23:36 - 23:40
EN: It’s less than a 20-pip loss, but you still were stopped out.
ZH: 这个止损距离不到20 pips，但还是止损了
23:43 - 23:48
EN: Reasonable swing trades should win 40 or more percent of the time.
ZH: 合理的波段交易胜率应该有40%或更高
Slide 018
Time: 23:45
Bilingual Transcript
23:48 - 23:51
EN: Here we have a strong trend down and a strong trend up.
ZH: 这里有一个强下降趋势和一个强上涨趋势
23:51 - 23:56
EN: You probably have better than a 40% chance of winning with your swing trades.
ZH: 你做波段交易的会超过40%
23:56 - 24:02
EN: We have three trades that reached a swing target of twice as big as the risk.
ZH: 有3笔交易达到了两倍盈亏比的目标
24:02 - 24:05
EN: They made 40 pips while risking 20 pips.
ZH: 只冒了20个pips的风险，但是赚到了40 pips
24:05 - 24:09
EN: And you had two trades where you did not make your 40 pips.
ZH: 同时，有两笔交易没有赚到40 pips
24:09 - 24:11
EN: Here, you might’ve made a pip or two,
ZH: 在这里，你可能赚了1或2 pips
24:11 - 24:14
EN: and here you may’ve lost about 15 pips or so.
ZH: 在这里你亏了15 pips
24:15 - 24:17
EN: Two losing trades, three winning trades.
ZH: 两笔亏损，三笔盈利
24:19 - 24:24
EN: Let’s assume instead that you only had two winning trades.
ZH: 假设你只有两笔交易盈利了
24:24 - 24:28
EN: You had two winners times 40 pips, would be 80 pips total profit.
ZH: 2 * 40pips，总利润是80pips
24:28 - 24:33
EN: You had three losers – let’s say your losers all hit the protective stop,
ZH: 然后是3笔亏损——假设每一笔都打到了保护性止损
24:33 - 24:35
EN: and you lost 20 pips on each.
ZH: 每一笔都亏了20 pips
24:35 - 24:40
EN: Three losers times 20 pips, your total loss is 60 pips.
ZH: 3 * 20 pips，总亏损是60 pips
24:40 - 24:44
EN: Your net profit is 80 minus 60, 20 pips.
ZH: 你的净利润是80减60，= 20 pips
24:44 - 24:52
EN: That means that the probability of winning
ZH: 这意味着赚钱的概率（40%）* 盈利
24:47 - 24:52
EN: (here, it turned out to be 40%) times the reward is greater
ZH: 这意味着赚钱的概率（40%）* 盈利
24:52 - 24:56
EN: than the probability of losing (here, 60%) times the risk.
ZH: 大于亏钱的概率（60%）* 亏损
24:56 - 25:03
EN: That is positive Trader’s Equation, and that means this type
ZH: 数学期望为正，意味着这个交易策略是可以盈利的
25:00 - 25:03
EN: of strategy is mathematically profitable.
ZH: 数学期望为正，意味着这个交易策略是可以盈利的
25:03 - 25:07
EN: You have an edge, and if you employ the strategy over time,
ZH: 你在数学上具有优势，如果长期执行这个策略，
25:07 - 25:10
EN: you’ll have a good chance of consistently being profitable.
ZH: 你将有很大的机会可以稳定盈利
25:12 - 25:14
EN: The math is actually better than that
ZH: 实际上的数学期望会更好
25:14 - 25:17
EN: because some of the winners are more than 40 pips.
ZH: 因为有些交易的利润远远大于40 pips
Slide 019
Time: 25:15
Bilingual Transcript
25:17 - 25:20
EN: If you’re swing trading, you won’t necessarily take profits here.
ZH: 如果你在做波段交易，你不一定会在这里止盈
25:20 - 25:25
EN: You may swing part of it until the trend is no longer in effect,
ZH: 你可以坚定持有一部分仓位，直到趋势不再成立
25:25 - 25:28
EN: until the end of the session, until there’s a clear opposite signal.
ZH: 或者直到收盘，或者直到出现了明确的反转信号
25:28 - 25:31
EN: So some of the winners would actually be more than 40 pips.
ZH: 所以一些交易的盈利会超过40 pips
25:32 - 25:35
EN: 60% of the time, you do not make a swing profit.
ZH: 60%的时间里，你没有赚到波段利润
25:35 - 25:37
EN: You do not make 40 pips.
ZH: 没有赚到40 pips
25:37 - 25:42
EN: But that does not mean your stop gets hit during those 60% of the trades.
ZH: 但这并不代表在那60%的交易中，你的止损一定会被打掉
25:42 - 25:47
EN: Some of them are small losers, some of them are 20 pip losses,
ZH: 其中一些是小亏损，一些止损被打到，亏了20 pips
25:46 - 25:48
EN: your stop gets hit, and some of them are small winners.
ZH: 其中一些是小亏损，一些止损被打到，亏了20 pips 也有一些是小赚
25:49 - 25:53
EN: And the 60% of the time when you do not make your 40-pip profit,
ZH: 在那60%的时间里，在你没有赚到40 pips的时候，
25:53 - 25:56
EN: those times tend to balance each other out.
ZH: 往往是小赚小亏互相抵消
25:56 - 25:58
EN: Some small winners, some small losers.
ZH: 有一些小赚，有一些小亏
26:03 - 26:07
EN: I began by talking about perfect trades and a mathematical advantage.
ZH: 这节课我先是讲了完美的交易，以及数学上的优势
Slide 020
Time: 26:05
Bilingual Transcript
26:08 - 26:09
EN: Perfect trades cannot exist.
ZH: 完美的交易机会并不存在
26:09 - 26:12
EN: However, if you structure your trades properly,
ZH: 然而，如果你正确地构建交易，
26:12 - 26:15
EN: you can have a mathematical advantage, an edge.
ZH: 你可以拥有微弱的数学优势
26:16 - 26:19
EN: And then I moved on to talk about the Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 然后我讲了数学期望
26:20 - 26:24
EN: If the probability of making money times your potential reward
ZH: 如果【赚钱的概率 * 潜在的利润】
26:24 - 26:30
EN: is significantly greater than the probability
ZH: 显著大于【亏钱的概率 * 风险】， 那么数学期望就是正的
26:26 - 26:30
EN: of losing money times your risk, you have a positive Trader’s Equation,
ZH: 显著大于【亏钱的概率 * 风险】， 那么数学期望就是正的
26:30 - 26:34
EN: and the trade that you just structured has a mathematical advantage.
ZH: 你刚刚构建的这笔交易具有数学优势
26:35 - 26:37
EN: You have a good chance of making money.
ZH: 长期执行，可以稳定盈利
26:41 - 26:43
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
26:43 - 26:45
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
26:45 - 26:50
EN: This is the first of five videos on the Trader’s Equation and Probability.
ZH: 数学期望和概率的第1节课，就先讲到这里