al-brooks-course
38D - Trading MTR Tops
Raw transcript and slide notes for 38D - Trading MTR Tops.
Overview
- Slides: 12
- Transcript segments: 393
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:06
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:06 - 00:10
EN: This is the fourth of four videos on trading Major Trend Reversal Tops.
ZH: 这是顶部大反转结构的第4节课（共4节）
Slide 001
Time: 00:12
Bilingual Transcript
00:14 - 00:20
EN: Some traders do not like taking trades
ZH: 一些交易者不喜欢胜率只有40%的交易
00:16 - 00:20
EN: where the probability of success is only about 40%,
ZH: 一些交易者不喜欢胜率只有40%的交易
00:20 - 00:25
EN: and therefore they do not take the early entry in a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 因此，他们不会在大反转的早期就入场
00:25 - 00:29
EN: They wait until after there is a strong breakout because at that point,
ZH: 他们会等到强势突破之后再入场
00:29 - 00:32
EN: the probability of making money is higher.
ZH: 因为这样做的胜率更高
Slide 002
Time: 00:33
Bilingual Transcript
00:35 - 00:43
EN: We have a bull trend, and we have a series of bear bars breaking
ZH: 上涨趋势，一系列阴线跌破了上涨趋势线， 高点降低（注：目前反弹还没有超过前期高点）
00:39 - 00:43
EN: below a bull trend line, and now we’re forming a Lower High.
ZH: 上涨趋势，一系列阴线跌破了上涨趋势线， 高点降低（注：目前反弹还没有超过前期高点）
00:48 - 00:51
EN: Some traders will take that short, taking a chance
ZH: 有些人会入场做空
00:51 - 00:55
EN: that it’s the start of a Major Trend Reversal down.
ZH: 押注这是大反转下跌的开始
00:55 - 00:59
EN: However, the probability of a swing down at this point is not all that great.
ZH: 然而，此时赚到下跌波段的概率并不高
00:59 - 01:03
EN: We’ve been sideways for about 30 bars, and we’re in a Tight Trading Range here.
ZH: 已经横盘了大约30根K线，并且这是一个窄震荡区间
01:04 - 01:08
EN: For the bears who do take that short, they’ll look at this and say,
ZH: 在这里卖出的空头认为：
01:08 - 01:13
EN: okay, 7 bear bars, several good closes on their lows.
ZH: “7根阴线，有几根收在最低
01:13 - 01:16
EN: I’ll short and put a stop above this high
ZH: 在这里卖出做空，把止损放在高点上方
01:16 - 01:18
EN: and take a chance that we get a swing down.
ZH: 押注会形成下跌波段”
01:18 - 01:23
EN: That is a reasonable thing to do, but only about a 40% chance of success.
ZH: 这是合理的做法，但成功率只有大约40%
01:24 - 01:28
EN: Some traders do not like to win only 40% of the time,
ZH: 有些交易者觉得40%的胜率太低了
01:28 - 01:31
EN: and they prefer higher probability trades,
ZH: 他们更喜欢高胜率的机会
01:31 - 01:35
EN: and they instead would wait and not take this short.
ZH: 所以他们会等待，暂时不入场做空
01:42 - 01:46
EN: An 8 bar Tight Trading Range inside of a 20 or 30 bar Trading Range.
ZH: 大的震荡区间持续了20多根K线， 现在又是一个8根K线的窄区间
01:47 - 01:49
EN: A minor reversal likely.
ZH: 更有可能只是小反转
01:49 - 01:52
EN: It’s more likely that we’ll just stay sideways,
ZH: 更有可能会继续横盘
01:52 - 01:58
EN: but 40% chance we’ll get a swing down if traders put a stop up here.
ZH: 做空，把止损放在上面，还是有40%的概率可以赚到下跌的波段
Slide 003
Time: 02:00
Bilingual Transcript
02:01 - 02:03
EN: And that turned out to be the case.
ZH: 就比如这个案例中所发生的
02:03 - 02:07
EN: This is the 40% of the time when the market had a swing down.
ZH: 40%的时间，市场会反转形成下降趋势
02:13 - 02:21
EN: If a trader wants a higher probability short, instead of shorting here
ZH: 想要更高的胜率的交易者，不会在这里入场做空—— 这里是大区间的当中，而且又是小的窄区间
02:18 - 02:21
EN: in the middle of this Trading Range, in this Tight Trading Range,
ZH: 想要更高的胜率的交易者，不会在这里入场做空—— 这里是大区间的当中，而且又是小的窄区间
02:21 - 02:24
EN: he’ll wait for a strong bear breakout below here.
ZH: 而是会等待这个低点被强势跌破
02:24 - 02:28
EN: For example, we have a bear bar, consecutive good size bear bars,
ZH: 比如，这里，连续两根大阴线
02:28 - 02:31
EN: and then we’re getting another pair of bear bars here.
ZH: 这里又有两根连续的阴线
02:31 - 02:35
EN: At this point we’ve had 5, 6, or 7 consecutive bear bars.
ZH: 此时已经有了连续5、6、7根阴线
02:35 - 02:39
EN: It’s higher probability to short either here or down here.
ZH: 在这里，或这里入场做空的胜率会更高
02:43 - 02:49
EN: After a trader sees this, he knows that the first reversal up
ZH: 看到这样的下跌之后， 空头知道第1次上涨大概率只是小反弹
02:47 - 02:52
EN: probably will be minor, and he could look to sell below here.
ZH: 看到这样的下跌之后， 空头知道第1次上涨大概率只是小反弹 所以他也可以在这根K线下方卖出——楔形熊旗
02:51 - 02:52
EN: It’s a Wedge.
ZH: 所以他也可以在这根K线下方卖出——楔形熊旗
02:52 - 02:56
EN: We went up, we went down, we went up, we went down, we went up.
ZH: 上涨，下跌；上涨，下跌；上涨
02:56 - 02:59
EN: So there’s a Wedge bear flag at the Moving Average.
ZH: 所以是反弹到均线的楔形熊旗
02:59 - 03:04
EN: After 7 consecutive bear bars, probably going down at least a little bit lower,
ZH: 连续7根阴线之后，大概率还会再下跌一些
03:04 - 03:09
EN: and therefore this is a relatively high probability short
ZH: 所以在这里做空，至少可以赚一些钱的胜率比较高，
03:07 - 03:09
EN: for at least a small move down.
ZH: 所以在这里做空，至少可以赚一些钱的胜率比较高，
03:15 - 03:22
EN: Now we have consecutive very big bear trend bars,
ZH: 现在又出现了连续的大阴线， 而且有连续的跟随阴线
03:19 - 03:22
EN: and we have a follow-through bar and another follow-through bar.
ZH: 现在又出现了连续的大阴线， 而且有连续的跟随阴线
03:22 - 03:27
EN: This has a high probability of leading to at least a small second leg down.
ZH: 非常大的概率，至少有小的第2段下跌
03:27 - 03:29
EN: So this is a high probability short.
ZH: 所以这是高胜率的做空机会
03:30 - 03:34
EN: It’s a bear break below what the bulls hoped was a High 2 bull flag.
ZH: 多头原本希望这是高2牛旗，但是被向下跌破了
03:35 - 03:38
EN: Strong bull trend, first leg down, pullback, second leg down,
ZH: 强上涨趋势，第1段下跌，反弹，第2段下跌
03:38 - 03:42
EN: so they’re hoping for a Double Bottom Higher Low and a rally.
ZH: 所以他们希望这是低点抬高的双底，然后恢复上涨
03:42 - 03:46
EN: Instead, we got a breakout – and not just a breakout,
ZH: 然而向下跌破了——不仅仅是跌破，
03:46 - 03:52
EN: but a strong bear breakout, a pair of very big bear bars,
ZH: 而是非常强势的跌破，两根体积很大的大阴线， 还有连续的跟随阴线
03:49 - 03:52
EN: and follow-through bear bars.
ZH: 而是非常强势的跌破，两根体积很大的大阴线， 还有连续的跟随阴线
03:52 - 03:56
EN: Therefore, traders would be thinking about a possible Measured Move down.
ZH: 因此，交易者会考虑跌到MM目标位的可能性
03:57 - 04:02
EN: The bulls were hoping for a Double Bottom and a breakout
ZH: 多头希望的是形成双底，向上突破颈线， 然后涨到上方的MM目标位
03:59 - 04:02
EN: above this neckline and a Measured Move up.
ZH: 多头希望的是形成双底，向上突破颈线， 然后涨到上方的MM目标位
04:02 - 04:04
EN: Instead, we’re getting the bear breakout.
ZH: 然而，向下跌破了
04:04 - 04:08
EN: Bears will be thinking this is possibly a Measuring Gap
ZH: 空头制造了潜在的测量型缺口
04:07 - 04:08
EN: for a Measured Move down.
ZH: 空头制造了潜在的测量型缺口
04:08 - 04:11
EN: So instead of a Measured Move up from the Double Bottom,
ZH: 多头想要双底、向上的MM目标位
04:11 - 04:15
EN: the bears are looking for a Measured Move down from the Double Bottom.
ZH: 而失败后，空头的目标就是反向的MM目标位
04:19 - 04:21
EN: Here’s the Double Bottom attempt.
ZH: 多头尝试形成双底
04:22 - 04:23
EN: A bear breakout.
ZH: 向下跌破
04:24 - 04:25
EN: Here’s the neckline of the Double Bottom.
ZH: 这里是双底的颈线
04:25 - 04:27
EN: The bulls want a Measured Move up.
ZH: 多头想要上涨到MM目标位
04:28 - 04:32
EN: Because we’re getting the breakout, the bears want the Measured Move down,
ZH: 因为向下跌破，所以空头想要反向的MM目标位
04:32 - 04:37
EN: from the top to the potential Double Bottom and then down here.
ZH: 把颈线到双底的高度往下翻一倍
04:37 - 04:41
EN: And you can see where the market ended up
ZH: 可以看到，最终市场下跌到了哪里—— 几乎完全精确的在MM目标位
04:39 - 04:41
EN: - almost exactly to a Measured Move down.
ZH: 可以看到，最终市场下跌到了哪里—— 几乎完全精确的在MM目标位
Slide 004
Time: 04:45
Bilingual Transcript
04:50 - 04:54
EN: For swing traders, this reversal is probably the earliest swing short.
ZH: 对于波段交易者来说，这里可能是最早的做空入场点
04:54 - 04:58
EN: Maybe you could sell up here, possible Final Flag early in the day,
ZH: 也许有人在这里就做空了，认为左边可能是早盘的末端牛旗
04:58 - 05:01
EN: hoping that you’re getting an early high of the day.
ZH: 希望今天的最高点已经出现
05:02 - 05:08
EN: But later entries – here, here, or here – often have higher probability.
ZH: 但更晚的入场点——这里、这里或这里——通常有更高的胜率
05:13 - 05:22
EN: In any case, with any trade, the math is always reasonable
ZH: 无论在哪里入场，对于任何交易来说， 只要利润至少是实际风险的两倍，在数学上就是合理的
05:18 - 05:22
EN: if you hold for at least two times your Actual Risk.
ZH: 无论在哪里入场，对于任何交易来说， 只要利润至少是实际风险的两倍，在数学上就是合理的
05:23 - 05:27
EN: However, many trades have potential of much bigger profit,
ZH: 然而很多时候，如果明显有更大的利润空间
05:27 - 05:31
EN: and it’s usually better not to go for the minimum.
ZH: 那么最好不要只满足于最低目标
05:35 - 05:39
EN: Traders looking at this are saying, “Do I sell here? There’s a Low 2.
ZH: 一些交易者会纠结：“应该在这里做空吗？这是低2
05:39 - 05:42
EN: Do I sell here? Do I sell here? Do I sell here?”
ZH: 这里可以入场吗？这里呢？这里呢？
05:42 - 05:45
EN: Where’s the best entry? There is no best entry,
ZH: 到底哪个才是最好的入场点？” 不存在最好的入场点
05:45 - 05:50
EN: and every entry is a tradeoff between risk/reward and probability.
ZH: 每个入场点都需要在盈亏比和概率之间权衡
05:51 - 05:55
EN: The earlier entries tend to have a closer stop, so the risk is less.
ZH: 入场越早，止损越近，所以风险越小
05:56 - 05:58
EN: There’s more profit potential, so the reward is greater.
ZH: 潜在的利润空间更大，所以利润更大
05:58 - 06:02
EN: So the earlier entries tend to have a much better risk/reward.
ZH: 所以较早的入场点，往往有很好的盈亏比
06:02 - 06:05
EN: However, they also tend to have lower probability.
ZH: 然而，它们的胜率较低
06:06 - 06:10
EN: The later entries have a much higher probability of success,
ZH: 较晚的入场点，胜率更高
06:10 - 06:12
EN: but the stop is usually further away
ZH: 但止损距离也更远
06:12 - 06:16
EN: and there’s less profit remaining in the trade.
ZH: 同时剩余的利润更少了
06:16 - 06:20
EN: Both are mathematically acceptable trades.
ZH: 两种做法在数学上都是可以接受的
06:21 - 06:23
EN: It usually comes down to personality.
ZH: （到底怎么选择）取决于交易者的性格
06:28 - 06:31
EN: A lot of traders will add to a winning trade.
ZH: 许多交易者会盈利加仓
06:32 - 06:33
EN: There’s no reason to get out here.
ZH: 在这里没有必要止盈离场
06:33 - 06:37
EN: Maybe you can get out here, but if you do, you’ve got to look to sell again.
ZH: 也许可以在这里先离场保护利润； 但如果在这里离场，你就需要寻找再次入场做空的机会
06:37 - 06:41
EN: Strong enough up, a lot of bears will not take the first reversal down.
ZH: 反弹足够强势，许多空头不会在第1次下跌时就入场
06:41 - 06:46
EN: However, they will take the second reversal down even though it’s a bull bar.
ZH: 然而，他们会在第2次反转下跌时卖出做空， 尽管是在阳线下方挂突破卖单
06:46 - 06:48
EN: It’s a Low 2 short at the Moving Average.
ZH: 反弹到均线，低2做空入场点
06:48 - 06:51
EN: This is not enough for a major reversal,
ZH: 这里（多头）还不足以形成大反转的结构
06:51 - 06:53
EN: and therefore it’s a Double Top bear flag.
ZH: 所以只是一个双顶熊旗
06:53 - 06:55
EN: It’s a reasonable short.
ZH: 做空是合理的
06:56 - 07:00
EN: And bears who sold here, if they did not get out here,
ZH: 那些在这里卖出的空头，如果他们没有在这里离场
07:00 - 07:02
EN: they might sell more here or here.
ZH: 那么他们可能会在这里或这里，加仓做空
07:02 - 07:05
EN: If they did get out here, we’re still Always In Short.
ZH: 如果他们在这里提前离场了，但市场仍然处于单边下跌的趋势
07:05 - 07:07
EN: The bulls have not done enough to make it Always In Long.
ZH: 多头还没有能够让市场反转进入上涨趋势
07:07 - 07:11
EN: They have to get short again if they’re trading Always In,
ZH: 如果按照单边趋势的方法交易，他们应该再次入场做空
07:11 - 07:15
EN: and a Double Top bear flag, a Low 2 at the Moving Average,
ZH: 而反弹到均线，出现双顶熊旗，低2，
07:15 - 07:18
EN: is a reasonable time to get short again.
ZH: 就是合理的做空入场点
07:20 - 07:24
EN: If a bear took any of these shorts – let’s say he took an early one
ZH: 如果一个空头在某个地方做空了—— 假设他最初在这里入场，
07:24 - 07:27
EN: and you sold more here or here or here or here,
ZH: 然后在这里，或这里，或这里，或这里，加仓卖出更多
07:27 - 07:29
EN: he’s scaling into a winning trade.
ZH: 那么他就是在盈利加仓
07:29 - 07:32
EN: He’s scaling into a trade where he already has a profit.
ZH: 他在有了盈利的情况下加大仓位
Slide 005
Time: 07:35
Bilingual Transcript
07:40 - 07:47
EN: The minimum goal for any trade is a profit
ZH: 任何一笔交易的最低目标是：利润至少是两倍实际风险
07:44 - 07:47
EN: that is at least twice your Actual Risk.
ZH: 任何一笔交易的最低目标是：利润至少是两倍实际风险
07:48 - 07:51
EN: You don’t know what your Actual Risk is when you put the trade on,
ZH: 在入场时，你无法预知实际风险会是多少
07:51 - 07:56
EN: but once the trade goes your way, you then know what the Actual Risk is.
ZH: 一旦市场朝着你的方向移动，你就知道了实际风险的大小
07:58 - 08:02
EN: For example, had you sold below the low of this bar
ZH: 例如，如果你在这根K线的低点下方卖出
08:02 - 08:08
EN: and then you see this bear breakout, you discovered
ZH: 然后市场向下跌破，此时你就知道， 实际风险最多就是到这个阴线的高点
08:05 - 08:08
EN: that your Actual Risk was to just above the high of this bear bar.
ZH: 然后市场向下跌破，此时你就知道， 实际风险最多就是到这个阴线的高点
08:08 - 08:12
EN: So your Actual Risk was the height of this brown box.
ZH: 你的实际风险就是这个棕色框框的高度
08:12 - 08:16
EN: Here’s one times your Actual Risk, here’s two times your Actual Risk.
ZH: 一倍实际风险在这里，两倍实际风险在这里
08:16 - 08:23
EN: Mathematically, it’s acceptable to take your entire profit right here
ZH: 根据数学，在两倍实际风险的地方止盈全部利润是可以接受的
08:21 - 08:23
EN: at two times your Actual Risk.
ZH: 根据数学，在两倍实际风险的地方止盈全部利润是可以接受的
08:23 - 08:28
EN: That is the minimum acceptable profit to get a positive Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 这是让数学期望为正的最低要求
08:29 - 08:33
EN: But like everything in life, doing the minimum is rarely doing the best.
ZH: 但就像任何事情一样，最低目标往往不是最好的选择
08:37 - 08:40
EN: Again, if you sold below this bar,
ZH: 再讲一遍，如果你在这根K线的低点下方卖出
08:40 - 08:43
EN: the market broke strongly to the down side here.
ZH: 然后市场强势地向下跌破
08:43 - 08:47
EN: At that point, you discovered that your Actual Risk was only
ZH: 此时，你就知道，你的实际风险仅仅是从这个低点下方，
08:47 - 08:51
EN: from just below this low to 1 tick above this high.
ZH: 到这个高点上方1个tick
08:51 - 08:53
EN: You had a very small Actual Risk,
ZH: 实际风险非常小
08:53 - 08:57
EN: and therefore this is two times Actual Risk right here,
ZH: 两倍的实际风险在这里
08:57 - 09:05
EN: and if you exited your entire position right there and you did
ZH: 在这里全部止盈——如果你按照这个方法做100笔交易， 有很高的概率最后总体是盈利的
09:01 - 09:05
EN: that on 100 trades, you have a very high probability of making money.
ZH: 在这里全部止盈——如果你按照这个方法做100笔交易， 有很高的概率最后总体是盈利的
09:05 - 09:11
EN: But again, exiting with the minimum is rarely the most profitable strategy.
ZH: 然而，只追求最低利润，并不是最赚钱的策略
09:12 - 09:14
EN: Same thing here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
09:14 - 09:16
EN: If you sold below the low of this bar,
ZH: 如果你在这根K线的低点下方卖出
09:16 - 09:19
EN: your Actual Risk is to just above the high of this bar.
ZH: 实际风险就是到这根K线的高点
09:19 - 09:22
EN: You discovered that after this bear breakout,
ZH: 向下跌破之后，你就知道了这一点
09:22 - 09:27
EN: and two times your Actual Risk is right there at that bear close.
ZH: 然后两倍实际风险，就是在这根阴线的收盘价这里
09:28 - 09:32
EN: It’s reasonable to exit there, but it’s probably not ideal.
ZH: 在那里离场是合理的，但往往不是最好的选择
09:33 - 09:36
EN: When the Actual Risk is tiny, like here, here, and here,
ZH: 如果实际风险很小，比如这里、这里和这里
09:36 - 09:41
EN: exiting at two times Actual Risk is usually not a good strategy.
ZH: 在两倍实际风险的地方止盈通常不是一个好的策略
09:42 - 09:44
EN: You have much more profit potential,
ZH: 有更大的利润空间
09:44 - 09:47
EN: and it’s usually better to hold for a bigger profit.
ZH: 所以继续持有让利润奔腾，会是更好的选择
09:49 - 09:51
EN: Same thing here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
09:51 - 09:54
EN: Actual Risk, you sell below that bar, you get filled here.
ZH: 你在那根K线下方挂突破卖单，在这里成交
09:54 - 09:56
EN: The market breaks to the down side.
ZH: 市场向下跌破
09:56 - 10:00
EN: You now know your Actual Risk was only from your entry price right here
ZH: 现在你已经知道，实际风险就是从入场价，
10:00 - 10:03
EN: to 1 tick above this bear bar here.
ZH: 到这根阴线的高点上方1个tick
10:03 - 10:05
EN: Two times Actual Risk here.
ZH: 两倍实际风险在这里
Slide 006
Time: 10:10
Bilingual Transcript
10:13 - 10:18
EN: Some traders have a scalper’s mentality, and they keep taking quick profits
ZH: 一些交易者运用剥头皮的思维，他们不断地赚快钱止盈
10:18 - 10:21
EN: - two times Actual Risk, and then sell again.
ZH: ——比如在两倍实际风险的地方——然后再次卖出做空
10:22 - 10:26
EN: Very difficult to do because what you’ll find is
ZH: 这样做的难度很高，因为你会发现，
10:26 - 10:32
EN: you don’t take all of the entries, and therefore you will not make
ZH: 你无法抓住所有的入场点（导致错过一些利润）， 所以最后的利润不如做波段交易那么多
10:30 - 10:32
EN: nearly as much money as a swing trader.
ZH: 你无法抓住所有的入场点（导致错过一些利润）， 所以最后的利润不如做波段交易那么多
10:33 - 10:38
EN: I talk more about this in the video on Trade Management and Taking Profits.
ZH: 我在管理和止盈的单元（36AB）中更详细地讲解了这个问题
10:43 - 10:48
EN: A lot of traders do not pay attention to Actual Risk, especially if it’s small,
ZH: 很多交易者并不关心实际风险，尤其是当它很小的时候，
10:48 - 10:52
EN: and they set their target at two times Initial Risk.
ZH: 他们把初始风险的两倍作为目标
10:52 - 10:55
EN: Initial Risk is based upon their initial stop.
ZH: 初始风险的大小基于初始止损的位置
10:57 - 11:01
EN: For example, had you sold below this bar and put a stop just above its high,
ZH: 例如，如果你在这根K线下方卖出， 然后把止损放在它的高点上方
11:01 - 11:05
EN: your Initial Risk was 1 tick below this bar to 1 tick above that bar,
ZH: 你的初始风险是：从这根K线下方1个tick， 到那根K线上方1个tick
11:05 - 11:08
EN: and this is two times Initial Risk.
ZH: 初始风险的两倍在这里
11:10 - 11:11
EN: Same here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
11:12 - 11:16
EN: Sell below this bar, stop above the high, that’s your Initial Risk.
ZH: 在这根K线下方卖出，止损放在它的高点上方， 这一段就是初始风险
11:16 - 11:17
EN: Here’s two times Initial Risk.
ZH: 初始风险的两倍在这里
11:18 - 11:26
EN: It’s always at least as big as Actual Risk, and it’s usually bigger
ZH: 初始风险总是大于等于实际风险， 所以根据初始风险来设置目标位是更好的做法
11:22 - 11:26
EN: than Actual Risk, and that is usually a better strategy.
ZH: 初始风险总是大于等于实际风险， 所以根据初始风险来设置目标位是更好的做法
11:26 - 11:30
EN: So it’s always good to take profits at two times Initial Risk.
ZH: 在两倍初始风险的地方止盈，永远都是合理的
11:30 - 11:37
EN: However, it’s not always best, and if the Initial Risk is small
ZH: 然而，并不一定是最好的选择， 如果初始风险很小，而潜在的利润空间很大
11:34 - 11:37
EN: and you have the potential for a very big profit,
ZH: 然而，并不一定是最好的选择， 如果初始风险很小，而潜在的利润空间很大
11:37 - 11:42
EN: it’s usually better to not exit at two times Initial Risk.
ZH: 最好不要急着在两倍初始风险的地方离场
11:43 - 11:48
EN: It’s reasonable to take half off, or part of your profits,
ZH: （重复）在两倍初始风险的地方止盈部分或全部，是合理的
11:46 - 11:48
EN: at two times Initial Risk.
ZH: （重复）在两倍初始风险的地方止盈部分或全部，是合理的
11:48 - 11:51
EN: However, if the potential for profit is much greater,
ZH: 然而，如果有明显更大的利润空间，
11:51 - 11:59
EN: a lot of traders will continue to hold their entire position
ZH: 很多交易者会继续持有，直到交易的前提不再成立
11:55 - 11:59
EN: until they believe their premise is no longer valid.
ZH: 很多交易者会继续持有，直到交易的前提不再成立
11:59 - 12:02
EN: If their premise is that the market’s in a strong bear trend,
ZH: 如果他们的前提是：市场处于强下降趋势
12:02 - 12:07
EN: they’ll continue to hold short until they think
ZH: 他们就会继续持有空单，直到他们认为下降趋势已经不再强势
12:05 - 12:07
EN: it’s no longer in a strong bear trend.
ZH: 他们就会继续持有空单，直到他们认为下降趋势已经不再强势
12:07 - 12:12
EN: Had you sold here and had not taken any profits along the way
ZH: 如果你在这里卖出做空，并且途中一直持有、没有止盈
12:12 - 12:15
EN: - here, a pretty good bull reversal bar, a Double Bottom,
ZH: ——这里，非常好的反转阳线，双底，
12:15 - 12:20
EN: a second failed breakout below the bottom of yesterday
ZH: 第2次尝试跌破昨天的低点并失败，
12:20 - 12:23
EN: - it’s reasonable to take partial or full profits here.
ZH: 在这里止盈部分或全部仓位是合理的
12:23 - 12:28
EN: But if you do, the market did not get Always In Long here or here.
ZH: 如果你止盈了，但后续市场没有进入单边上涨的趋势，
12:28 - 12:31
EN: You have to be thinking about selling again
ZH: 你就需要考虑再次入场做空
12:31 - 12:33
EN: below the Low 2 at the Moving Average.
ZH: 比如均线下方的低2做空入场点
12:36 - 12:39
EN: Initial Risk for the bears who sold below this bar,
ZH: 如果在这根K线下方卖出做空，
12:39 - 12:44
EN: their stop is probably here, and this is two times Initial Risk.
ZH: 他们的初始止损在这里， 所以两倍的初始风险在这个地方
12:44 - 12:47
EN: It did not get down to their Initial Risk by the end of the day,
ZH: 最终当天没有跌到两倍初始风险的目标位
12:47 - 12:51
EN: and if that was their goal, they would exit at the end of the day.
ZH: 空头会在收盘前离场
12:57 - 13:06
EN: Again, it’s reasonable to hold your position until either the end
ZH: 一直持有到收盘之前， 或者持有到出现合理的做多信号为止，都是合理的做法
13:01 - 13:06
EN: of the session or until there’s a reasonably good buy signal.
ZH: 一直持有到收盘之前， 或者持有到出现合理的做多信号为止，都是合理的做法
Slide 007
Time: 13:10
Bilingual Transcript
13:16 - 13:18
EN: The market keeps trying to reverse.
ZH: 市场总是在不断尝试反转
13:18 - 13:20
EN: Every trend is constantly reversing.
ZH: 每个趋势都在不断尝试反转
13:20 - 13:23
EN: On the way up, the market tried to reverse repeatedly.
ZH: 在上涨途中，市场反复尝试下跌
13:23 - 13:27
EN: On the way down, it’s trying to reverse repeatedly.
ZH: 在下跌途中，它反复尝试上涨
13:27 - 13:29
EN: But when the market’s in a fairly Tight Channel like this,
ZH: 当市场处于这样的窄通道时，
13:29 - 13:36
EN: 80% of the attempts to reverse up will fail and become bear flags,
ZH: 80%反转上涨的尝试会失败，变成熊旗， 然后下降趋势继续
13:35 - 13:36
EN: and the trend will continue.
ZH: 80%反转上涨的尝试会失败，变成熊旗， 然后下降趋势继续
13:38 - 13:40
EN: Every time there’s a strong breakout to a new low,
ZH: 每当市场强势跌破创新低，
13:40 - 13:44
EN: traders will tighten their stops because
ZH: 空头都会收窄他们的止损
13:44 - 13:46
EN: - here, you’ve got a strong breakout to a new low.
ZH: 比如这里——强势跌破创新低
13:46 - 13:48
EN: Therefore, this high is important.
ZH: 所以这个高点很重要
13:48 - 13:49
EN: It’s major.
ZH: 重要的高点
13:49 - 13:54
EN: And as long as the rally up stays below the major Lower High,
ZH: 只要反弹不超过这个重要的高点
13:54 - 13:57
EN: the premise of a strong bear trend is still intact.
ZH: 下降趋势的前提就仍然成立
13:58 - 14:01
EN: And therefore, once you have a strong breakout to a new low,
ZH: 因此，一旦强势跌破创新低
14:01 - 14:05
EN: traders will tighten their stops to above that high.
ZH: 空头就收窄止损，移动到这个高点的上方
14:05 - 14:10
EN: If it gets above that high, then the premise
ZH: 如果这个高点被突破，那么下降趋势的前提就不再成立
14:08 - 14:10
EN: of a strong bear trend is no longer valid.
ZH: 如果这个高点被突破，那么下降趋势的前提就不再成立
14:10 - 14:14
EN: The market’s then either in a Trading Range or in a bull trend,
ZH: 市场要么处于震荡区间，要么处于上涨趋势
14:14 - 14:18
EN: and if you’re holding on the belief that the market’s in a bear trend,
ZH: 如果你认为市场处于下降趋势
14:18 - 14:20
EN: then it should not get above this high,
ZH: 那么这个高点就不应该被突破
14:20 - 14:23
EN: and therefore it’s reasonable to put your stop there.
ZH: 所以把止损放在这里是合理的
14:25 - 14:29
EN: Strong bear breakout, reasonable to lower your stop to here.
ZH: 强势跌破，把止损降低是合理的
14:29 - 14:32
EN: This then becomes a major Lower High.
ZH: 因为它已经成为了重要的高点
14:34 - 14:40
EN: After this close, it’s a strong breakout to a new low in a bear trend.
ZH: 在这根大阴线收盘之后，价格跌破创新低
14:40 - 14:44
EN: If the bear trend is going to continue, it should not get above this high,
ZH: 如果下降趋势继续的话，就不应该突破这个高点
14:44 - 14:47
EN: and therefore you can lower your stop from here to here.
ZH: 所以你可以把止损从这里降低到这里
14:50 - 14:52
EN: Strong bear breakout to a new low.
ZH: 强势跌破创新低
14:52 - 14:55
EN: If it’s in a bear trend, it should not get above that high,
ZH: 如果下降趋势还成立，就不应该突破那个高点
14:55 - 14:59
EN: and therefore you could lower your stop from here to here.
ZH: 所以你可以再次降低止损，到它的上方
15:00 - 15:05
EN: And that does not matter whether you shorted here
ZH: 不管空头是在这里入场，还是在这里，还是在这里
15:03 - 15:05
EN: or shorted here or shorted here.
ZH: 不管空头是在这里入场，还是在这里，还是在这里
15:06 - 15:09
EN: Your stop location has nothing to do with your entry.
ZH: 止损的位置和入场点无关
15:09 - 15:12
EN: Your stop location has to do with what the market is doing at the moment.
ZH: 止损的位置只和市场当前的价格行为有关
15:15 - 15:18
EN: Another strong breakout, new low.
ZH: 再次强势跌破到新低
15:18 - 15:22
EN: This is therefore a major Lower High, and if it’s in a bear trend,
ZH: 所以它变成了重要的高点，如果下降趋势的前提还成立，
15:22 - 15:26
EN: it should not get above this high, and therefore if you’re holding short
ZH: 它就不应该被突破； 因此，如果你相信市场仍然处于下降趋势，
15:26 - 15:30
EN: on the belief that it’s in a bear trend, it’s reasonable to tighten your stop
ZH: 并且坚定持有空单，降低止损是合理的
15:30 - 15:34
EN: - to trail your stop down to above the most recent major Lower High.
ZH: ——把止损移动到最新的重要高点上方（追踪止损）
15:35 - 15:39
EN: You keep doing that until either the end of the session
ZH: 重复这个过程，直到收盘
15:39 - 15:42
EN: or until there’s a reasonable buy signal, and then you get out.
ZH: 或者直到出现合理的做多信号，再离场
15:49 - 15:51
EN: Your premise is that it’s in a bear trend,
ZH: 你的前提是：市场处于下降趋势
15:51 - 15:54
EN: and therefore it should be forming Lower Highs.
ZH: 所以高点应该不断地降低
15:54 - 15:58
EN: And if it stops forming Lower Highs, then it’s no longer in a bear trend.
ZH: 如果高点不再降低，那么它就不再是下降趋势了
15:58 - 16:03
EN: Is this a major Lower High? We have a strong bear breakout, but only 1 bar.
ZH: 这是一个重要的高点吗？有一根大阴线，但也只有一根
16:03 - 16:05
EN: Did not get to a new low.
ZH: 没有跌到新低
16:05 - 16:07
EN: Therefore, this is not a major Lower High,
ZH: 所以它不是重要的高点
16:07 - 16:11
EN: and therefore traders should not lower their stop from here to here.
ZH: 交易者不应该把止损从这里降低到它的上方
16:11 - 16:15
EN: And you can see, this high looks like it’s a little bit above that high,
ZH: 可以看到，这个高点略微高于那个高点
16:15 - 16:17
EN: and most bears would hold short.
ZH: 此时空头不会离场
16:17 - 16:20
EN: If they did not get out here, they’re not going to get out here.
ZH: 如果他们没有在这里提前离场的话， 那么他们也不会在这个高点上方离场
16:20 - 16:22
EN: They’ll rely on their stop up here.
ZH: 他们会依赖这里的止损
Slide 008
Time: 16:25
Bilingual Transcript
16:32 - 16:34
EN: When the market’s in a bear trend,
ZH: 当市场处于下降趋势时，
16:34 - 16:36
EN: it sometimes has pretty strong looking reversals.
ZH: 有时会出现相当强势的反弹
16:36 - 16:41
EN: We have a bull bar here and an even better second attempt to reverse up here.
ZH: 这里有一根阳线，这里第2次尝试反转，更强势的阳线
16:42 - 16:44
EN: However, the channel is tight.
ZH: 然而，通道很窄
16:44 - 16:46
EN: The entire trend is tight.
ZH: 窄通道，强趋势
16:46 - 16:50
EN: As long as it’s not going above a major Lower High,
ZH: 只要反弹不超过重要的高点
16:50 - 16:53
EN: this is probably going to be a bear flag or a Trading Range.
ZH: 那么它更有可能会变成熊旗，或震荡区间
16:54 - 16:58
EN: We’ve got a strong enough reversal up so that we’ll probably get
ZH: 反弹足够强势，所以大概率至少会有小的第2段上涨
16:57 - 17:01
EN: at least a small second leg up, but unless we get above this high,
ZH: 反弹足够强势，所以大概率至少会有小的第2段上涨 但除非突破这个高点，
17:01 - 17:05
EN: this is just going to be a Double Top bear flag – or you can call it a Triangle.
ZH: 不然这就只是一个双顶熊旗——或者也可以说它是三角形
17:05 - 17:08
EN: We went down, we went down, we went down.
ZH: 下跌，下跌，下跌 （注：横向的，3次向下推动）
17:08 - 17:11
EN: You can call it a Wedge – we went up, we went up, we went up
ZH: 也可以说它是楔形熊旗——上涨，上涨，上涨
17:11 - 17:13
EN: - even though it’s not a Wedge shape.
ZH: 尽管它完全没有楔形的形状
17:13 - 17:16
EN: In any case, it’s much more likely a bear flag that will lead
ZH: 无论如何，它更有可能是熊旗
17:16 - 17:20
EN: to a resumption of the bear trend than a reversal.
ZH: 下降趋势更有可能会恢复，而不是被反转
17:21 - 17:24
EN: It’s too small a pattern to be a major reversal,
ZH: 这个结构太小了，不足以形成大反转
17:24 - 17:29
EN: and therefore it’s probably a minor reversal, which means a bear flag.
ZH: 所以更有可能只是小反转，也就是熊旗
17:36 - 17:38
EN: If a trader exited, he would sell again here.
ZH: 如果一个空头离场了，他会在这里再次入场做空
17:38 - 17:42
EN: If he did not exit, he might add to his position here.
ZH: 如果没有离场，那么他可能会在这里加仓
17:42 - 17:45
EN: Double Top bear flag at the Moving Average.
ZH: 反弹到均线，形成双顶熊旗
Slide 009
Time: 17:50
Bilingual Transcript
17:56 - 17:59
EN: When you took this trade, if you took this,
ZH: 如果你在这里入场做空
17:59 - 18:02
EN: you knew you only had a 40% chance of a swing down.
ZH: 你知道只有40%的概率可以赚到下跌的波段
18:03 - 18:08
EN: 60% chance that we’d either go sideways or possibly resume back up,
ZH: 60%的时候，可能只是横盘，或者恢复上涨
18:08 - 18:12
EN: but your risk is relatively small compared to your potential reward.
ZH: 但和潜在的利润相比，风险是比较小的
18:12 - 18:16
EN: Most successful swing trades end up as Trading Ranges,
ZH: 所有的趋势，最终都会进入震荡区间
18:17 - 18:22
EN: sometimes after a small swing profit, sometimes after a big swing profit.
ZH: 有时赚了一个小波段，就开始震荡； 有时则是赚了很多钱，才进入震荡
18:23 - 18:24
EN: This is a bear channel.
ZH: 这是下降通道
18:24 - 18:26
EN: A bear channel is a bull flag.
ZH: 下降通道是牛旗
18:26 - 18:29
EN: 75% chance we’re going to get a bull breakout
ZH: 75%的概率，最终会被向上突破
18:29 - 18:33
EN: and this entire bear channel will evolve into a Trading Range.
ZH: 然后整个下降通道将演变成震荡区间
18:33 - 18:38
EN: Maybe the top of the range will be here,
ZH: 也许区间的顶部会在这里——最近的重要高点
18:35 - 18:38
EN: the most recent really major Lower High.
ZH: 也许区间的顶部会在这里——最近的重要高点
18:38 - 18:40
EN: It might retrace the entire trend.
ZH: 也可能会完全反转这个下降趋势
18:44 - 18:47
EN: Here’s a 60-minute chart showing what took place over the next 3 days.
ZH: 这是它的60分钟图，显示了接下来3天的行情
18:47 - 18:50
EN: This brown box is this brown box.
ZH: 小图上的棕色框框，就是这一段下降通道
18:50 - 18:57
EN: This is the 5-minute chart, this is the 60-minute chart
ZH: 大的是5分钟图，小的是相对应的60分钟图
18:55 - 18:57
EN: of this same 5-minute chart.
ZH: 大的是5分钟图，小的是相对应的60分钟图
18:58 - 19:01
EN: And you can see that even though it was a strong bear trend,
ZH: 可以看到，即使它是一个强势的下降趋势
19:01 - 19:05
EN: the next day it reversed up and it reversed up for several more days,
ZH: 第2天低开后反转上涨，并且持续了几天
19:05 - 19:11
EN: and therefore even though it was a successful Major Trend Reversal down,
ZH: 所以，即使这是一次成功的大反转下跌
19:11 - 19:14
EN: it ended up reversing into a larger Trading Range
ZH: 它最终也变成了大的震荡区间
19:14 - 19:17
EN: - and in fact, it went above the top of the bear trend;
ZH: 事实上，反转超过了它的起跌点——
19:17 - 19:20
EN: 2 days later, it was back above this high.
ZH: 两天后，市场涨到了这个高点的上方
19:21 - 19:24
EN: Therefore, when you see a Major Trend Reversal on the 5-minute chart,
ZH: 因此，当你在5分钟图上看到大反转时
19:24 - 19:31
EN: don’t assume that it’s going to lead to a trend down
ZH: 不要假设接下来的5天或10天会是下降趋势
19:29 - 19:31
EN: for the next 5 days or 10 days.
ZH: 不要假设接下来的5天或10天会是下降趋势
19:31 - 19:36
EN: It’s probably going to evolve into a Trading Range within a day or two.
ZH: 市场很可能会在一两天内就进入震荡区间
19:36 - 19:42
EN: However, it’s still a very good profit
ZH: 然而，对于日内交易而言，这仍然是一笔很大的利润
19:39 - 19:42
EN: for a day trader looking for a swing trade down.
ZH: 然而，对于日内交易而言，这仍然是一笔很大的利润
Slide 010
Time: 19:45
Bilingual Transcript
19:47 - 19:52
EN: What do you do here? We have a bull trend
ZH: 遇到这种情况该怎么办？ 上涨趋势，然后是高点抬高的大反转
19:49 - 19:52
EN: and then a Higher High Major Trend Reversal,
ZH: 遇到这种情况该怎么办？ 上涨趋势，然后是高点抬高的大反转
19:52 - 19:55
EN: but we’re at the end of the trading day.
ZH: 但此时已经临近收盘了
19:57 - 19:59
EN: It’s a Higher High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 这是高点抬高的大反转结构
20:00 - 20:05
EN: It’s an okay swing trade, but one problem you have
ZH: 有波段交易的机会，但问题是，剩余的时间不多了
20:03 - 20:05
EN: is there might not be enough time for a swing.
ZH: 有波段交易的机会，但问题是，剩余的时间不多了
20:05 - 20:07
EN: It could just go sideways.
ZH: 可能就一直横盘到结束
20:07 - 20:09
EN: But it’s a reasonable short.
ZH: 但这是合理的做空机会
20:15 - 20:20
EN: You’ve got a bull trend and a High 2 bull flag,
ZH: 上涨趋势，高2牛旗——回调到均线，形成双底牛旗
20:18 - 20:20
EN: a Double Bottom bull flag at the Moving Average,
ZH: 上涨趋势，高2牛旗——回调到均线，形成双底牛旗
20:20 - 20:24
EN: but it’s late in the trend and it’s near the end of the session.
ZH: 但趋势已经持续了很久，而且临近收盘
20:24 - 20:26
EN: It might be the final bull flag.
ZH: 它有可能是末端牛旗
20:26 - 20:30
EN: That means that if we get a new high, it could be the end of the trend
ZH: 也就是说，如果上涨到新高，可能就是上涨趋势的结束
20:30 - 20:33
EN: and we could get a reversal back down into the Final Flag,
ZH: 然后反转回到末端旗形的价格，
20:33 - 20:38
EN: and either a Trading Range or a Sell The Close finish at the end of the day.
ZH: 要么震荡到收盘，要么尾盘跳水
20:40 - 20:41
EN: We have gap bars.
ZH: 空头制造了缺口K线
20:41 - 20:47
EN: Although you might not be able to see it, there’s a gap between the high
ZH: 也许看不太清楚，但这根K线的高点和均线之间没有碰到， 这根K线和均线之间也有缺口
20:44 - 20:47
EN: of this bar and the Moving Average, and then again here.
ZH: 也许看不太清楚，但这根K线的高点和均线之间没有碰到， 这根K线和均线之间也有缺口
20:47 - 20:52
EN: When you get Moving Average Gap bars late in a trend, they usually lead
ZH: 当你在趋势的后期看到均线缺口K线，
20:52 - 20:55
EN: to a Major Trend Reversal attempt around the prior high,
ZH: 然后趋势回到前期高点，往往会有大反转的尝试 （注意：会有尝试，而不是一定会有大反转）
20:55 - 20:59
EN: and therefore that’s another reason to be looking to sell here.
ZH: 这是另一个在这里做空的理由
21:03 - 21:05
EN: MAG, Moving Average Gap bars.
ZH: MAG，均线缺口K线的缩写
21:13 - 21:17
EN: If you take this short, you really need signs of strength because you’re right
ZH: 如果想在这里做空，就非常需要看到空头强势的信号
21:17 - 21:20
EN: at the end of the day, and you really don’t have that much time.
ZH: 因为已经到了尾盘，没有那么多时间了
21:21 - 21:26
EN: Most of the bears will get out, especially above a second bull bar here.
ZH: 很多空头会做好提前离场的准备， 尤其是在第2根阳线上方（挂突破买单）
21:26 - 21:28
EN: First bull bar, second bull bar.
ZH: 第1根阳线，第2根阳线
21:28 - 21:30
EN: They’ll get out above here.
ZH: 空头会在它的上方挂突破买单离场
21:30 - 21:31
EN: And look what happened.
ZH: 但是仔细看
21:32 - 21:36
EN: This high went exactly to the top of that bull bar, but not above.
ZH: 它的最高点，刚好等于前一根阳线的最高点， 但没有向上突破
21:36 - 21:44
EN: What does that tell you? It tells you that the bears were able
ZH: 这说明什么？说明空头成功阻止了市场突破这根阳线的高点
21:40 - 21:44
EN: to prevent the market from getting above this bull bar.
ZH: 这说明什么？说明空头成功阻止了市场突破这根阳线的高点
21:44 - 21:46
EN: They know that a lot of the bears would exit there,
ZH: 他们知道，很多空头会在这里挂单离场
21:46 - 21:49
EN: and they know the bulls were trying to get it above there,
ZH: 他们知道，多头会尝试把价格推高（打掉空头的止损）
21:50 - 21:52
EN: but it got there and turned down.
ZH: 上方的突破买单没有被触发，然后反转下跌
21:52 - 21:54
EN: That’s a good sign for the bears.
ZH: 对于空头来说，这是好事
21:54 - 21:58
EN: They were able to stop the bulls from forcing the bears out,
ZH: 多头想要打掉空头的止损，但是被阻止了
21:58 - 22:00
EN: and that means we’re probably going lower.
ZH: 这意味着可能会进一步下跌
22:00 - 22:04
EN: And now we have a 5, 6, 7-bar bear Micro Channel,
ZH: 现在，空头制造了持续5、6、7根K线的下降微通道
22:04 - 22:06
EN: and it became a Sell The Close finish.
ZH: 抛售一直持续到收盘
22:07 - 22:09
EN: You’re at the end of the day.
ZH: 因为已经是尾盘了
22:09 - 22:13
EN: If the market’s not going your way, you have to get out quickly.
ZH: 如果行情没有按照你的预期发展，你就必须快速离场
22:13 - 22:17
EN: For example, we have two legs down – one, pullback, two – and a bull body.
ZH: 例如，两段下跌——1，反弹，2——阳线
22:17 - 22:26
EN: Even though it has a big tail on top, most bears would get out
ZH: 即使它有明显的上影线，很多空头仍然会在这个阳线上方离场， 因为留给空头的时间已经不多了
22:21 - 22:26
EN: above that bull bar because there’s just not much time in the day,
ZH: 即使它有明显的上影线，很多空头仍然会在这个阳线上方离场， 因为留给空头的时间已经不多了
22:26 - 22:28
EN: and if it starts to go up for a few bars,
ZH: 如果接下来的几根K线是上涨的
22:28 - 22:32
EN: you’ll run out of time before it can go back down.
ZH: 那么时间就耗尽了，来不及下跌了
22:37 - 22:41
EN: My general rule is if it goes 1 tick above a bull bar, I get out.
ZH: （这种情况下）我的通用法则是： 如果价格突破阳线上方1个tick，我就离场
22:42 - 22:50
EN: If it goes 4 ticks above any bar – a small bull bar or a bear bar
ZH: 如果价格突破任何K线上方4 ticks—— 不管是阳线还是阴线，我就离场
22:47 - 22:50
EN: - I’ll get out at the end of the day.
ZH: 如果价格突破任何K线上方4 ticks—— 不管是阳线还是阴线，我就离场
22:52 - 22:58
EN: And bears will take profits at the end of the day,
ZH: 空头会在收盘前止盈——最后几秒，或者最后一两分钟
22:55 - 22:58
EN: the final seconds, the final minute or two.
ZH: 空头会在收盘前止盈——最后几秒，或者最后一两分钟
Slide 011
Time: 23:00
Bilingual Transcript
23:02 - 23:04
EN: Very strong bull trend,
ZH: 非常强的上涨趋势
23:06 - 23:08
EN: a Higher High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 高点抬高的大反转
23:08 - 23:12
EN: We broke above the bull trend and we went up.
ZH: 突破了前期的高点； 大阳线，但是跟随不好
23:12 - 23:16
EN: Bad follow-through, and we’re reversing down.
ZH: 又是糟糕的跟随，然后开始反转下跌
23:16 - 23:17
EN: We have a bear bar.
ZH: 阴线（收在一半以下）
23:17 - 23:20
EN: It’s a reasonable short looking for a swing down.
ZH: 这是合理的做空机会，押注下跌波段
23:24 - 23:28
EN: You have a Buy Climax, the strongest bull breakout very late in a bull trend.
ZH: 这是抢购高潮——上涨趋势后期体积最大的大阳线
23:28 - 23:31
EN: Probably an exhaustion bar.
ZH: 很可能即将衰竭
23:32 - 23:35
EN: Exhaustion does not mean reversal to an opposite trend.
ZH: 衰竭不代表会反转成为相反的趋势
23:35 - 23:38
EN: It simply means usually a pause in the bull trend,
ZH: 只是意味着上涨趋势会暂停
23:38 - 23:43
EN: but it can lead to a reversal, and therefore it’s reasonable
ZH: 但有时候会反转，所以在这个阴线下方做空是合理的
23:41 - 23:43
EN: to short below that bear bar.
ZH: 但有时候会反转，所以在这个阴线下方做空是合理的
23:44 - 23:46
EN: Small 2 bar Final Flag.
ZH: 这两根K线组成了小的末端牛旗
23:52 - 23:56
EN: If you take that short, what do you do when you see this bar?
ZH: 如果你做空了，当你这根K线时，该怎么办？
23:56 - 24:02
EN: You’re saying, “Uh oh, that’s a Double Bottom,
ZH: 你可能会想：“哦哟，这是一个双底啊，可能是双底牛旗”
23:59 - 24:02
EN: and it could be a Double Bottom bull flag.”
ZH: 你可能会想：“哦哟，这是一个双底啊，可能是双底牛旗”
24:02 - 24:05
EN: This whole thing could be a big bull flag,
ZH: 整个这段回调，可能就是一个大的牛旗
24:05 - 24:09
EN: a pullback from this very strong Small Pullback Bull Trend,
ZH: 是这个强上涨趋势的回调
24:09 - 24:12
EN: and you have an exceptionally strong buy signal bar.
ZH: 而且这是一根极其强势的做多信号阳线
24:12 - 24:15
EN: If you take this short, you have to get out
ZH: 如果你在这里做空了，
24:15 - 24:21
EN: above that bull bar because the bulls have a reasonable argument
ZH: 你必须要在阳线上方离场， 因为多头有充分的理由来认为这是一个双底牛旗
24:18 - 24:21
EN: for this being a Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 因为多头有充分的理由来认为这是一个双底牛旗
24:21 - 24:25
EN: It could not fall below the bottom of this strong reversal up.
ZH: 没有能够跌破这段强势上涨的起涨点
24:26 - 24:30
EN: Therefore, this is a major Higher Low, and the bulls got down to it
ZH: 这是一个重要的低点，被测试了，
24:30 - 24:34
EN: but not below it, and now it’s resuming up with a very strong bull bar.
ZH: 但没有跌破，而现在出现了一根非常强势的阳线， 正在恢复上涨
24:35 - 24:38
EN: Sometimes you take a short and it’s reasonable to take the short,
ZH: 在这里做空是合理的
24:38 - 24:42
EN: but if you get a reasonable buy signal after you take your short,
ZH: 但如果你做空之后，出现了一个合理的做多信号
24:42 - 24:44
EN: you have to get out.
ZH: 你就必须离场
24:44 - 24:45
EN: And that’s what took place here.
ZH: 就像这个案例所发生的事情
24:46 - 24:48
EN: It’s hard to reverse.
ZH: （交易的时候）很难反向开仓 （注：比如做空、离场、立刻反手做多）
24:48 - 24:51
EN: If you took that short, it’s hard to reverse to long here,
ZH: 如果你在上方做空了，很难立刻掉头做多
24:51 - 24:53
EN: but you have to get out of the short.
ZH: 但你至少要停止做空
24:53 - 24:57
EN: And if you did not take the short, it’s reasonable to buy here.
ZH: 如果你之前没有做空，在这里买入做多是合理的
24:58 - 25:00
EN: If you did get out of your short here,
ZH: 如果你做空了，并且在这里离场了
25:00 - 25:03
EN: you can wait for 2 or 3 bars and then buy.
ZH: 可以等待两三根K线，然后再买入做多
25:03 - 25:07
EN: Maybe buy this close, or buy above this bar,
ZH: 比如在它的收盘买入，或者在它的上方挂突破买单——
25:07 - 25:09
EN: a Wedge bull flag to the Moving Average.
ZH: 回调到均线的楔形牛旗——
25:09 - 25:14
EN: Down, up, down, up, down, and then bull bar closing on its high.
ZH: 下跌，上涨；下跌，上涨； 下跌，然后阳线收在最高
25:22 - 25:26
EN: Most traders do not like to reverse, even really experienced traders.
ZH: 大多数人，即使是非常有经验的交易者。 也不喜欢离场后立刻反向开仓
25:26 - 25:30
EN: I’ve been trading for 30 years, and I don’t reverse all that much.
ZH: 我已经交易了三十多年，但我不会经常反向开仓
25:30 - 25:33
EN: I prefer, if I took that short, I would get out here
ZH: 我更喜欢的方法是：如果我在这里做空了， 我会在它的上方离场
25:33 - 25:38
EN: and then wait 1 or 2 bars and then look to buy if I wanted to buy.
ZH: 然后等待一两根K线，如果确实可以做多，我再买入 （注：既然之前一笔交易的前提错了，那么就重新观察一下）
25:44 - 25:53
EN: In this video I talked about how a lot of traders don’t like the initial entries
ZH: 这节课，我讲了很多交易者不喜欢在大反转的早期入场， 因为此时的胜率通常只有40%
Slide 012
Time: 25:45
Bilingual Transcript
25:49 - 25:53
EN: for Major Trend Reversals because the probability is usually only 40%.
ZH: 这节课，我讲了很多交易者不喜欢在大反转的早期入场， 因为此时的胜率通常只有40%
25:54 - 26:00
EN: While a 40% probability is still good if you have a reward several times greater
ZH: 如果你的利润是风险的好几倍，40%的胜率也能赚钱
26:00 - 26:04
EN: than you risk, some traders prefer to wait until the probability is higher
ZH: 但一些交易者更喜欢等待胜率更高的机会
26:04 - 26:07
EN: - in other words, they wait for a strong breakout and then they enter.
ZH: ——换句话说，他们等待强势的突破，然后入场
26:08 - 26:10
EN: Both approaches are reasonable.
ZH: 两种方法都是合理的
26:14 - 26:15
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
26:15 - 26:17
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
26:17 - 26:22
EN: This is the fourth of four videos on trading Major Trend Reversal Tops.
ZH: 顶部大反转的4节课，到这里就全部讲完了