al-brooks-course
41D - Trading Breakouts
Raw transcript and slide notes for 41D - Trading Breakouts.
Overview
- Slides: 15
- Transcript segments: 501
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课
00:05 - 00:09
EN: This is the fourth of four videos on trading breakouts.
ZH: 这是如何交易突破行情的最后一节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:11
Bilingual Transcript
00:13 - 00:16
EN: I think stop management is important with all trades.
ZH: 风险管理是交易中最重要的事
00:16 - 00:19
EN: I’ll talk about that for breakout trades today,
ZH: 我会以今天的突破为例来讲这个话题
00:20 - 00:23
EN: and I also want to talk about different ways to sell.
ZH: 我也会继续讲不同的做空入场方式 （注：接着上节课后半部分讲的空头突破）
Slide 002
Time: 00:24
Bilingual Transcript
00:27 - 00:31
EN: Market’s obviously in a bear trend for most of the bars on this chart.
ZH: 显然，绝大部分K线都处于下降趋势中
00:35 - 00:38
EN: And although the bulls broke above the bear channel,
ZH: 尽管多头突破了下降通道
00:38 - 00:41
EN: there was a very strong reversal down,
ZH: 但立刻强势地反转下跌了
00:41 - 00:44
EN: and we have a pair of big bear bars closing near their lows.
ZH: 连续两根大阴线收在最低
00:44 - 00:50
EN: The market is clearly short, and the odds are it’ll go
ZH: 市场显然处于单边下跌，至少会再下跌一些
00:49 - 00:50
EN: at least a little bit lower.
ZH: 市场显然处于单边下跌，至少会再下跌一些
00:52 - 00:54
EN: What do you do? You have to sell.
ZH: 该怎么做？必须卖出
00:54 - 00:56
EN: The stop is obvious.
ZH: 止损位很明显
00:56 - 01:00
EN: No matter where you decided that the market is trying to go down,
ZH: 不论你在什么时候决定入场做空
01:00 - 01:02
EN: you know where the stop has to be.
ZH: 你都必须清楚止损应该放在哪里
01:02 - 01:07
EN: It doesn’t matter if you enter here, on this close, at the market here,
ZH: 不管你是在这里入场，在它的收盘卖出，还是市价卖出
01:07 - 01:10
EN: on the breakout below that Trading Range, at this close
ZH: 还是在跌破区间时卖出，在它的收盘卖出
01:10 - 01:14
EN: - the stop is up here at the top of the major Lower High.
ZH: ——止损都在这里，在最近一个重要高点的上方
01:20 - 01:24
EN: By the close of this bar, everyone knows that the market is short
ZH: 在这根K线收盘后，每个人都知道要做空
01:24 - 01:27
EN: and everyone knows that the odds are the market’s going lower,
ZH: 每个人都知道大概率还会下跌
01:27 - 01:33
EN: and everyone knows that the best stop is
ZH: 每个人都知道最合理的止损位置是抛售高潮的起跌点上方
01:30 - 01:33
EN: above the top of the Sell Climax, the bear reversal.
ZH: 每个人都知道最合理的止损位置是抛售高潮的起跌点上方
01:36 - 01:38
EN: You could put it above the 2 bar bear breakout.
ZH: 你也可以把止损放在两根大阴线的上方
01:38 - 01:43
EN: I would simply put it above the top of the entire leg down.
ZH: 我会直接放在整个下跌波段的起跌点上方
01:49 - 01:53
EN: You could look at that and say, “Oh my gosh, that’s 15 points above.
ZH: 新手可能会说：“哇，止损距离是15个点！
01:53 - 01:58
EN: I can’t risk that much.” If you cannot risk that much, don’t take the trade.
ZH: 我无法承担这么大的风险” 如果不能冒这么大的风险，就不要做这笔交易
01:58 - 02:02
EN: But if you are able to risk that much, then it’s a reasonable trade
ZH: 但如果你能够承受，那么这是一笔合理的交易
02:02 - 02:03
EN: and you have to decide how to get short.
ZH: 接下来就是决定用什么方式入场
02:03 - 02:05
EN: There are many ways to do it.
ZH: 有很多方法
02:05 - 02:07
EN: For example, you could sell the close,
ZH: 例如，你可以在阴线的收盘卖出
02:07 - 02:10
EN: you could sell below bars, you could sell above bars.
ZH: 可以在K线下方挂突破卖单， 可以在K线上方挂限价卖单
02:10 - 02:12
EN: You could sell about a 50% pullback here.
ZH: 可以在50%反弹处挂限价卖单
02:14 - 02:18
EN: Once you decide that the market is going down and you decide
ZH: 一旦你认为市场会继续下跌，
02:18 - 02:22
EN: that you can use the stop, that your account is big enough
ZH: 并且决定能够接受这个止损——你的账户足够大，
02:22 - 02:26
EN: and emotionally you can risk that much, then you have to get short.
ZH: 情感上没有那么在乎这样的风险，那么你就必须入场做空了
02:27 - 02:30
EN: If you wait more than a bar or two after this close,
ZH: 没必要再等待一两根K线
02:30 - 02:33
EN: you should simply sell a small position at the market
ZH: 直接用小仓位市价卖出就可以了
02:33 - 02:37
EN: and put your stop up here because the market may not pull back for a long time.
ZH: 然后把止损放在这里； （直接市价卖出）因为市场完全可以继续下跌很多、不反弹
02:37 - 02:41
EN: Here it did pull back, but it might instead have simply gone straight down.
ZH: 尽管这里确实反弹了，但有时候会一直下跌不反弹
02:42 - 02:48
EN: One of the reasons that the market sometimes does go straight down is
ZH: 有时市场不断下跌的原因之一是FOMO，害怕错过
02:45 - 02:48
EN: because of FOMO, fear of missing out.
ZH: 有时市场不断下跌的原因之一是FOMO，害怕错过
02:49 - 02:54
EN: Traders are afraid that if they wait for a pullback,
ZH: 交易者担心，如果一直等不到反弹怎么办？
02:52 - 02:54
EN: it might not come for a long time.
ZH: 交易者担心，如果一直等不到反弹怎么办？
02:54 - 02:58
EN: If they sell, they’ll probably make a profit even if it reverses on them
ZH: 而直接卖出做空的话，即使市场反弹，他们最终也能赚钱
02:58 - 03:03
EN: because the reversal probably will be minor and the trend will resume,
ZH: 因为大概率不会是大反转，趋势很快会恢复
03:03 - 03:09
EN: and therefore everyone selling at least a little bit can result
ZH: 所以每个人都至少小仓位卖出，这就导致价格立刻下跌
03:07 - 03:09
EN: in the trade simply working right away.
ZH: 所以每个人都至少小仓位卖出，这就导致价格立刻下跌
03:12 - 03:16
EN: And because you have the potential for a FOMO selloff here
ZH: 因为这里可能会出现FOMO行情
Slide 003
Time: 03:15
Bilingual Transcript
03:16 - 03:20
EN: - a very strong breakout, everybody knows the market’s going lower
ZH: ——非常强势的突破，每个人都知道会继续下跌
03:20 - 03:23
EN: - it’s important, I think, to get short.
ZH: 所以尽早入场是很重要的
03:23 - 03:25
EN: Either sell the close or sell for any reason.
ZH: 在它的收盘卖出，或者不管什么方式，总之要入场
03:28 - 03:31
EN: Obvious choice is you see the close of the big bear bar
ZH: 其中一种方法是，在大阴线收盘之后，
03:31 - 03:34
EN: and you place a limit order to sell the close,
ZH: 立刻在收盘价挂限价卖单
03:34 - 03:36
EN: or right before the close you sell the market,
ZH: 或者在它收盘的瞬间市价卖出
03:36 - 03:40
EN: or right as soon as the bar closes,
ZH: 订单会在下一根K线的开盘成交
03:38 - 03:40
EN: you sell the market and get filled on the next bar.
ZH: 订单会在下一根K线的开盘成交
03:44 - 03:47
EN: What’s happening here? We’ve got three pushes down
ZH: 这里发生了什么？3次向下的推动——
03:47 - 03:52
EN: - Sell Climax, pause, Sell Climax, bull bar, Sell Climax.
ZH: 抛售高潮，暂停，抛售高潮，阳线，抛售高潮
03:52 - 03:54
EN: It’s possible a Wedge reversal.
ZH: 有可能是楔形底反转
03:54 - 03:57
EN: However, when the channel down is tight like this,
ZH: 然而，下降通道这么窄
03:57 - 03:59
EN: the reversal is probably minor.
ZH: 很可能只是小反转
04:01 - 04:06
EN: If the bulls get a couple big bull bars, totally undoing this bear breakout,
ZH: 如果多头能制造几根大阳线，完全反转左边的大阴线
04:06 - 04:09
EN: then they can make it back to Always In Long.
ZH: 那么市场就进入了单边上涨
04:09 - 04:13
EN: But if the bars are smaller, have tails, and have bad follow-through,
ZH: 但是如果K线较小，有上影线，且跟随不好
04:13 - 04:20
EN: it’s probably a minor reversal and it will lead to a test back down
ZH: 说明只是小反转，至少会跌回到那个收盘价， 或者下降趋势继续
04:17 - 04:20
EN: to that close and maybe a resumption of the bear trend.
ZH: 说明只是小反转，至少会跌回到那个收盘价， 或者下降趋势继续
04:23 - 04:26
EN: It’s reasonable to exit above the high of this bar.
ZH: 空头在这根K线的高点上方离场是合理的
04:26 - 04:30
EN: It’s also reasonable to stay short and keep your stop up here.
ZH: 继续持有，依赖这里的初始止损也是合理的
04:30 - 04:35
EN: If you do exit, if you’re a swing trader, you have to be willing to sell again
ZH: 作为波段交易者，如果你在这里离场了， 你必须愿意再次入场做空（注：因为下降趋势的前提没有被破坏）
04:35 - 04:39
EN: - either below a bear bar here for a Double Top bear flag,
ZH: 要么在这个双顶熊旗的阴线下方（用突破卖单入场）
04:39 - 04:43
EN: or below a bear bar here, or a second entry short after this breakout
ZH: 或者在这根阴线下方，或者在这个第2做空入场点
04:43 - 04:49
EN: or the close of that bear bar, or now we have a Double Top here,
ZH: 或者在那个阴线的收盘， 或者，现在有一个双顶，在这根阴线下方卖出
04:48 - 04:49
EN: sell below that bear bar.
ZH: 或者在那个阴线的收盘， 或者，现在有一个双顶，在这根阴线下方卖出
04:49 - 04:52
EN: We have a Low 1, Low 2 below this bear bar.
ZH: 这里是低1，它的下方是低2
04:52 - 04:54
EN: You have to be able to sell again.
ZH: 总之，必须要能够再次入场
04:54 - 05:02
EN: If you find that you get out of trades like this
ZH: 在这种情况下，如果你提前离场了，却无法再次入场做空， 导致错过了这么大的趋势
04:58 - 05:02
EN: and are unable to get short again and then you miss the swing down here,
ZH: 在这种情况下，如果你提前离场了，却无法再次入场做空， 导致错过了这么大的趋势
05:02 - 05:09
EN: you have to think seriously about not getting out here
ZH: 那么你就需要认真考虑，不应该在这里离场， 直接依赖初始止损会更好
05:06 - 05:09
EN: and simply holding short and relying on your stop.
ZH: 那么你就需要认真考虑，不应该在这里离场， 直接依赖初始止损会更好
05:12 - 05:17
EN: A bull breakout, terrible follow-through, and now a second entry short.
ZH: 多头突破，跟随糟糕，现在有第2做空入场点
05:17 - 05:22
EN: A Micro Double Top here, about a 50% pullback, a test of yesterday’s close.
ZH: 这里有一个小双顶，大约是50%反弹， 也是对昨天收盘价的测试
05:22 - 05:24
EN: It’s reasonable to take the short.
ZH: 在这里卖出做空是合理的
05:24 - 05:28
EN: This is not enough to flip the market to Always In Long.
ZH: 这还不足以让市场变成单边上涨
05:28 - 05:32
EN: Consecutive bull bars, not big relative to the bear bars,
ZH: 尽管有连续的阳线，但相比左边的阴线而言，体积并不大
05:32 - 05:34
EN: tails on the top of both bars.
ZH: 两根阳线的顶部都有一定的上影线
05:34 - 05:37
EN: Bad follow-through, and then a second entry short.
ZH: 跟随不好，然后出现了第2做空入场点
05:40 - 05:45
EN: It’s also a 50% pullback of the initial selloff,
ZH: 同时也是这段下跌的50%反弹
05:45 - 05:47
EN: and a lot of traders will sell here.
ZH: 很多空头会在这里卖出
05:48 - 05:51
EN: Bull scalpers who bought here will be looking
ZH: 在下方买入剥头皮的多头，会在这里附近止盈，
05:51 - 05:58
EN: to take profits around here, thinking that the reversal up
ZH: 因为他们知道，在这么强势的空头突破之后， 这样的上涨很可能只是小反转
05:54 - 05:58
EN: is probably going to be minor after a very Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 因为他们知道，在这么强势的空头突破之后， 这样的上涨很可能只是小反转
05:58 - 06:00
EN: Probably the best the bulls get is a Trading Range
ZH: 多头能得到的最好结果也就是震荡区间而已
06:00 - 06:03
EN: or a resumption of the bear trend.
ZH: 更大的概率，下降趋势会继续
Slide 004
Time: 06:05
Bilingual Transcript
06:09 - 06:14
EN: There are lots of different reasonable stops
ZH: 在入场做空之后，止损位有几个选择
06:11 - 06:14
EN: that you can use if you sell for any reason.
ZH: 在入场做空之后，止损位有几个选择
06:14 - 06:15
EN: So let’s say you sell this close.
ZH: 假设你在它的收盘卖出
06:16 - 06:19
EN: One choice is simply to use a money stop.
ZH: 一个选择是使用固定金额止损
06:19 - 06:23
EN: You can say, “Well, that’s 15 points.
ZH: 你可以说：“哎，15个点太大了，我不想冒这么大的风险。
06:21 - 06:23
EN: I don’t want to risk that much.
ZH: 你可以说：“哎，15个点太大了，我不想冒这么大的风险。
06:23 - 06:28
EN: Maybe I’ll risk 5 points or 10 points, or maybe I’ll risk to just
ZH: 我只想冒5个点、10个点的风险， 就把止损放在50%反弹的上面吧。”
06:27 - 06:31
EN: above a 50% pullback.” At this point, a 50% pullback is around here,
ZH: 我只想冒5个点、10个点的风险， 就把止损放在50%反弹的上面吧。” 此时，50%反弹大约在这里
06:31 - 06:35
EN: so you put a stop a little bit above that 50% pullback.
ZH: 你可以把止损放在它的上方一点点
06:35 - 06:38
EN: At this point the 50% pullback is here.
ZH: 到了这里，50%反弹大约在这个位置
06:38 - 06:40
EN: You could put a stop a little bit above that.
ZH: 你可以把止损放在它的上方
06:43 - 06:48
EN: The best stop, I think, for most traders
ZH: 对于大多数交易者来说，最合理的初始止损位置， 在下跌波段的起跌点上方
06:45 - 06:48
EN: is the obvious one at the top of the bear leg.
ZH: 对于大多数交易者来说，最合理的初始止损位置， 在下跌波段的起跌点上方
06:52 - 06:55
EN: Alternatively, you could put a stop above the top of the bear breakout.
ZH: 或者，你可以把止损放在空头突破的起跌点上方
06:56 - 07:00
EN: Chances are if this is the start of a bear trend, like a spike, pullback,
ZH: 如果这确实是下降趋势，比如急速下跌、反弹、通道，
07:00 - 07:04
EN: channel, it will not get back above the high of this bear breakout,
ZH: 价格就不应该涨到这个起跌点的上方
07:04 - 07:11
EN: and the price is not much different from using the top of the bear trend.
ZH: 而且它和上方的这个止损位很接近，所以也是一个合理的选择
07:08 - 07:11
EN: So this is a reasonable alternative.
ZH: 而且它和上方的这个止损位很接近，所以也是一个合理的选择
07:14 - 07:21
EN: This bar as well is another strong breakout bar, and if you’re thinking
ZH: 这根阴线是很强势的突破，如果你不想承担这么大的止损，
07:19 - 07:21
EN: that you don’t want to risk all the way up here,
ZH: 这根阴线是很强势的突破，如果你不想承担这么大的止损，
07:21 - 07:23
EN: that would be another choice for a stop.
ZH: 那么也可以把止损放在它的上方
07:23 - 07:26
EN: If you do get stopped out, you can always sell again.
ZH: 如果止损被打到了（注：但下降趋势的前提仍然有效） 你总是可以再次入场做空
Slide 005
Time: 07:30
Bilingual Transcript
07:34 - 07:38
EN: Whatever stop you use, the tighter it is,
ZH: 不管选择哪一个止损，止损越窄，
07:38 - 07:41
EN: the less you lose per trade, but the more often you lose.
ZH: 每次被打到的时候的亏损就越小， 但是被打到的频率越高
07:41 - 07:45
EN: If you use a very wide stop, you’ll rarely ever get stopped out,
ZH: 如果使用宽止损，它很少会被打到
07:45 - 07:49
EN: but when you do get stopped out you’ll lose a lot of money.
ZH: 但真的被打到时，会亏很多钱
07:49 - 07:52
EN: The key is to do something that is reasonable.
ZH: 关键是你的选择要合理
07:52 - 07:54
EN: If you use a tight stop, that’s not reasonable.
ZH: 如果设置不合理的窄止损
07:54 - 07:56
EN: You’re going to get stopped out all the time.
ZH: 那么止损就会一直被打掉
07:56 - 08:01
EN: If you use an extremely wide stop, that’s not reasonable as well
ZH: 如果你把止损放的很远很远，那也不合理
08:01 - 08:05
EN: because you’re going to lose a very large amount of money occasionally.
ZH: 即使很偶尔，但一次亏损就会抹去很多笔交易的利润
08:09 - 08:19
EN: If you take 100 trades and choose among the reasonable stops,
ZH: 如果你用合理的窄止损和宽止损，各做100笔交易， 最后总得利润是差不多的
08:14 - 08:19
EN: your profit will be about the same
ZH: 如果你用合理的窄止损和宽止损，各做100笔交易， 最后总得利润是差不多的
08:16 - 08:19
EN: whether you choose a tighter stop or the wider stop.
ZH: 如果你用合理的窄止损和宽止损，各做100笔交易， 最后总得利润是差不多的
08:23 - 08:26
EN: Now, let’s say you sold this close and you risked 1 or 2 ticks.
ZH: 现在，假设你在它的收盘卖出做空，设置1个tick的止损
08:26 - 08:29
EN: Is that reasonable? Of course not.
ZH: 这合理吗？这不合理
08:29 - 08:33
EN: You’re going to get stopped out 90% of the time and you’re going to lose money.
ZH: 超过90%的时间都会被止损，会亏钱
08:33 - 08:36
EN: And let’s say alternatively you use an extremely wide stop,
ZH: 再假设，你把止损放得很远，
08:36 - 08:40
EN: like 50 points, three or four times the height of this bear breakout.
ZH: 比如50个点，是这段突破高度的好几倍
08:40 - 08:45
EN: That obviously is not reasonable either, and you are going to lose money.
ZH: 那显然也不合理，最终会亏钱
08:49 - 08:54
EN: Some traders prefer a high probability of winning, and they’ll use a wider stop.
ZH: 有些交易者偏好高胜率，他们会使用较宽的止损
08:54 - 09:00
EN: Other traders prefer to risk less and then sell again if they get stopped out.
ZH: 有些交易者偏好更小的风险，如果被止损了，就找机会再次入场
Slide 006
Time: 09:05
Bilingual Transcript
09:06 - 09:09
EN: Let’s say you sold the breakout below the Trading Range
ZH: 假设你在跌破震荡区间的时候卖出做空
09:09 - 09:11
EN: or you sold this close or you sold above this reversal
ZH: 或者你在它的收盘卖出，或者你在它的上方卖出，
09:11 - 09:15
EN: or you sold below this bear flag, Double Top bear flag.
ZH: 或者你在这个双顶熊旗下方卖出
09:15 - 09:18
EN: Another Low 2 short, let’s say you took that short.
ZH: 这里又有一个低2，假设你在这里卖出
09:18 - 09:21
EN: Let’s say you sold this bull close, betting against the reversal.
ZH: 假设你在这个阳线的收盘卖出，押注反转失败
09:21 - 09:25
EN: Let’s say you took the second entry short
ZH: 假设你在这个第2做空入场点卖出 ——突破了这个高点之后的反转下跌
09:23 - 09:25
EN: for the breakout above this Lower High.
ZH: 假设你在这个第2做空入场点卖出 ——突破了这个高点之后的反转下跌
09:25 - 09:26
EN: It doesn’t matter.
ZH: 都可以
09:26 - 09:30
EN: Any one of these shorts, the stop is the same.
ZH: 不管在哪里入场，止损的位置都一样
09:30 - 09:32
EN: It’s the same trade.
ZH: 它们本质上是同一笔交易
09:32 - 09:34
EN: You’re just putting it on at different times.
ZH: 只不过是在不同的时间
09:35 - 09:43
EN: A person who sold here and he held through all of this has the same trade
ZH: 一个人在这里卖出，然后一直持有， 另一个人没有在这里入场，而是在这里入场， 这两笔交易其实是一样的
09:39 - 09:43
EN: as a person who did not sell here and instead sold here.
ZH: 另一个人没有在这里入场，而是在这里入场， 这两笔交易其实是一样的
09:43 - 09:45
EN: They’re getting in at the same price.
ZH: 入场价格差不多
09:46 - 09:49
EN: The market has not done anything in the meantime
ZH: 在这期间，市场的价格行为没有变化，
09:49 - 09:51
EN: to make them change the location of their stop.
ZH: 所以止损的位置也不变
09:51 - 09:53
EN: The stop is still here.
ZH: 仍然在这里
09:57 - 10:01
EN: Your stop placement has nothing to do with where you enter.
ZH: 止损位置与入场位置无关
10:01 - 10:05
EN: It has to do with what the market did before you entered,
ZH: 它只和你入场之前市场的价格行为有关
10:05 - 10:10
EN: and it’s usually better to put your stop above the top
ZH: 通常来说，最好把止损放在最近一个重要的起跌点上方
10:08 - 10:16
EN: of the most recent major swing down, because if you’re betting on a swing,
ZH: 通常来说，最好把止损放在最近一个重要的起跌点上方 因为入场的前提是下降趋势，而下降趋势需要高点不断降低
10:13 - 10:16
EN: the market needs to get Lower Highs.
ZH: 因为入场的前提是下降趋势，而下降趋势需要高点不断降低
10:16 - 10:18
EN: If it gets above a major Lower High like this,
ZH: 如果重要的高点被突破
10:18 - 10:24
EN: then your premise of a bear trade, a swing down,
ZH: 那么做空的前提，下降趋势的前提，就已经错误了，所以需要立场
10:22 - 10:24
EN: is wrong, and you need to get out.
ZH: 那么做空的前提，下降趋势的前提，就已经错误了，所以需要立场
Slide 007
Time: 10:30
Bilingual Transcript
10:30 - 10:33
EN: Strong breakout, especially to a new low.
ZH: 强势的跌破，尤其在创新低之后，
10:34 - 10:38
EN: Traders lower their stop to above the most recent Lower High.
ZH: 空头会把止损降低到最近的重要高点上方
10:38 - 10:41
EN: At this point we have a strong breakout, new low.
ZH: 这里强势跌破创新低了
10:42 - 10:45
EN: The stop goes above the top of the high.
ZH: 止损移动到这个高点上方
10:45 - 10:46
EN: It’s a major Lower High.
ZH: 它是重要的高点
10:47 - 10:52
EN: You can call it a bear breakout, and it is a breakout.
ZH: 可以说它是空头突破——它确实是， 它跌破了左边的震荡区间
10:50 - 10:52
EN: We broke below the Trading Range.
ZH: 可以说它是空头突破——它确实是， 它跌破了左边的震荡区间
10:52 - 10:54
EN: You can call it a failed bull breakout.
ZH: 可以说这是失败的多头突破
10:54 - 10:57
EN: You can call it a reversal down after a bull breakout.
ZH: 可以说是反弹之后的空头突破
10:57 - 10:58
EN: It does not matter.
ZH: 这些并不关键
10:59 - 11:02
EN: Any time you see a big bear trend bar, it’s a breakout.
ZH: 关键是，当你看到大阴线的时候，它就是突破
11:02 - 11:03
EN: It’s a Sell Climax.
ZH: 它也是抛售高潮
11:03 - 11:04
EN: Doesn’t matter.
ZH: 名字并不重要
11:04 - 11:06
EN: You have a pair of bear bars.
ZH: 重要的是有两根大阴线
11:06 - 11:08
EN: In this particular context, you can call it a reversal.
ZH: 在这个背景下，可以说它是反转
11:08 - 11:12
EN: We tried to break above the channel and we reversed down.
ZH: 尝试突破下降通道，但很快反转下跌
11:12 - 11:14
EN: But I would just call that a bear breakout.
ZH: 我习惯称之为空头突破
11:17 - 11:20
EN: The market has another bear breakout here.
ZH: 这根大阴线也是空头突破
11:20 - 11:23
EN: It’s a reasonable to take the short, but where do you take the stop?
ZH: 在这里入场做空也是合理的，问题是止损应该放在哪里？
11:23 - 11:27
EN: It’s a strong bear breakout and it’s a new low.
ZH: 它是强势的大阴线，也创了新低
11:27 - 11:31
EN: Is it a major Lower High? Well, look to the left.
ZH: 但它是重要的高点吗？看左边
11:31 - 11:34
EN: You’re still in a fairly Tight Channel.
ZH: 仍然处于下降通道中 （注：它并没有形成更强的新趋势）
11:34 - 11:36
EN: This is probably a minor Lower High,
ZH: 所以这个高点很可能是次要的
11:36 - 11:39
EN: and the most recent major Lower High is up here.
ZH: 最近一个重要的高点仍然在这里
11:39 - 11:42
EN: In other words, the market could get above this bar
ZH: 换句话说，即使这个高点被突破，
11:42 - 11:45
EN: and the market could still be in a bear trend.
ZH: 市场仍然处于下降趋势中 （注：下降趋势的前提没有被破坏）
11:48 - 11:54
EN: In this particular context, yes, this is a big bear bar,
ZH: 尽管它确实是一根大阴线，但它仍然处于通道中
11:52 - 11:54
EN: but it’s still in this bear channel
ZH: 尽管它确实是一根大阴线，但它仍然处于通道中
11:54 - 11:57
EN: and it’s small compared to this bear breakout.
ZH: 而且体积并没有它们那么大
11:57 - 12:01
EN: I think this Lower High is minor compared to this one,
ZH: 这个高点，相对于这个高点而言，是次要的
12:01 - 12:05
EN: and therefore this is not a good location for a stop for a swing trader.
ZH: 所以对于波段交易者而言，把止损放在它的上方不是一个很好的选择
12:13 - 12:17
EN: If you’re a swing trader, you’re betting on a swing down, a bear trend.
ZH: 如果你想做波段交易，你押注的是下降趋势
12:17 - 12:22
EN: It’s a bear trend as long as it keeps making Lower Highs, major Lower Highs.
ZH: 只要重要的高点不断降低，趋势就仍然成立
12:22 - 12:28
EN: If it gets above this area, this major Lower High, clearly your premise is wrong
ZH: 然而，如果突破了这个区域，突破这个高点， 那么你的前提很明显已经不再成立
12:28 - 12:33
EN: and you don’t want to be short, because if it gets above this high,
ZH: 既然错了，就不应该再继续做空
12:31 - 12:33
EN: your idea that we’re in a bear trend is wrong.
ZH: 既然错了，就不应该再继续做空
12:33 - 12:35
EN: It’s no longer a bear trend.
ZH: 市场不再处于下降趋势
12:35 - 12:38
EN: It’s either a bull trend or a Trading Range.
ZH: 它要么处于上涨趋势，要么处于震荡区间
12:38 - 12:41
EN: In either case, that is not why you entered the trade.
ZH: 无论是哪种情况，都不在符合你入场的原因
12:41 - 12:44
EN: You entered the trade because you believed it was in a bear trend,
ZH: 你入场的原因是，你认为这是下降趋势
12:44 - 12:46
EN: and if it gets above this high, then you’re wrong
ZH: 如果这个高点被突破，说明你是错误的
12:46 - 12:48
EN: and therefore you have to exit your trade.
ZH: 因此你应该止损离场
12:53 - 12:58
EN: Can you get out above this high? Like I said, if you get out
ZH: 可以在这个高点上方离场吗？ 正如之前所说，如果市场没有明确地进入上涨趋势，
12:56 - 13:07
EN: for any reason other than a clear reversal into a bull trend
ZH: 可以在这个高点上方离场吗？ 正如之前所说，如果市场没有明确地进入上涨趋势， 但出于某些原因，你提前离场了的话， 你就必须做好再次入场的准备，因为此时下降趋势仍然成立
13:00 - 13:07
EN: or the market hitting your stop, you have to be prepared to sell again
ZH: 但出于某些原因，你提前离场了的话， 你就必须做好再次入场的准备，因为此时下降趋势仍然成立
13:05 - 13:07
EN: because the market’s still short.
ZH: 但出于某些原因，你提前离场了的话， 你就必须做好再次入场的准备，因为此时下降趋势仍然成立
13:10 - 13:15
EN: Here, a second entry short for the failed bull breakout above that minor high.
ZH: 这里是第2做空入场点，是突破那个高点之后的反转下跌
13:16 - 13:20
EN: If you sell below this bull bar, can you put your stop above the Double Top?
ZH: 如果在这个阳线下方卖出做空，可以把止损放在双顶的上方吗？
13:20 - 13:25
EN: You probably can, but it’s probably better to still use the wider stop.
ZH: 也许可以，但最好还是使用更宽一点的止损
13:27 - 13:31
EN: Let’s say after the close of this bar, can you put your stop up here?
ZH: 在这根K线收盘后，可以把止损移动到这里吗？
13:31 - 13:36
EN: That’s probably reasonable, but it’s still a fairly minor Lower High.
ZH: 也许合理，但它仍然是一个比较次要的高点
13:36 - 13:42
EN: We did not get a new low, even though it’s a pair of good bear bars
ZH: 没有跌到新低——尽管是两根不错的阴线， 完全反转了这两根阳线的涨幅
13:39 - 13:42
EN: and it totally reverses this pair of good bull bars.
ZH: 没有跌到新低——尽管是两根不错的阴线， 完全反转了这两根阳线的涨幅
13:42 - 13:46
EN: The market could get one more leg up and then resumption down.
ZH: 市场完全有可能再反弹一些，然后才恢复下跌
13:46 - 13:51
EN: If you do get stopped out, if this rally were to go above this Sell Climax
ZH: 如果真的被止损了—— 如果真的反弹到了这个高点上方，打掉了你的止损
13:50 - 13:59
EN: and you got stopped out, you would still sell again on a reversal back down
ZH: 如果真的被止损了—— 如果真的反弹到了这个高点上方，打掉了你的止损 只要价格维持在下降趋势起跌点的下方， 你就需要在恢复下跌的时候再次入场做空
13:55 - 13:59
EN: as long as we stayed below the top of this bear trend.
ZH: 只要价格维持在下降趋势起跌点的下方， 你就需要在恢复下跌的时候再次入场做空
14:00 - 14:01
EN: Here’s another sell.
ZH: 这里也是一个入场点
14:01 - 14:03
EN: Let’s say you sold here.
ZH: 假设你在这里卖出
14:03 - 14:05
EN: We have a Micro Double Top, a bear bar.
ZH: 小双顶，阴线
14:05 - 14:06
EN: Let’s say you sell there.
ZH: 假设你在它的下方卖出
14:06 - 14:09
EN: We have a bear breakout, not particularly big.
ZH: 阴线，体积并没有很大
14:09 - 14:11
EN: You might put your stop up here.
ZH: 可以把止损放在这里
14:11 - 14:14
EN: The bulls tried to get a reversal, and now we’ve traded down about 10 bars.
ZH: 多头尝试反转，但现在已经下跌了10根K线
14:14 - 14:16
EN: You might put your stop up here.
ZH: 也可以把止损放在这里
14:16 - 14:17
EN: You may keep it up here.
ZH: 当然也可以保留在起跌点的上方
14:17 - 14:18
EN: All three are reasonable.
ZH: 三者都是合理的
14:19 - 14:26
EN: If you use a tighter stop, like above this bear bar,
ZH: 如果选择较窄的止损，比如在它、它、或者它的上方， 止损被打到的次数会更多
14:22 - 14:26
EN: this bear bar, or this bear bar, you’re going to lose more often,
ZH: 如果选择较窄的止损，比如在它、它、或者它的上方， 止损被打到的次数会更多
14:26 - 14:28
EN: but your losses will be small.
ZH: 但每次的亏损较小
14:28 - 14:29
EN: It’s reasonable to do that.
ZH: 因此这样做是合理的
14:33 - 14:37
EN: I want to talk some about how to sell.
ZH: 接下来我想讲一讲做空的入场方式
Slide 008
Time: 14:35
Bilingual Transcript
No transcript segment aligned to this slide.
Slide 009
Time: 14:38
Bilingual Transcript
14:42 - 14:43
EN: Strong bear reversal.
ZH: 强势的反转——
14:43 - 14:45
EN: We tried to get a bull breakout.
ZH: 多头想要突破
14:45 - 14:48
EN: We gapped up on the open above yesterday’s close
ZH: 跳空高开，突破了昨天的收盘价
14:48 - 14:51
EN: and above a bear channel and then reversed down very strongly.
ZH: 突破了下降通道，但是剧烈地反转下跌
14:55 - 14:59
EN: You could sell the close of that bar, even though it’s at the Moving Average.
ZH: 你可以在这根阴线的收盘卖出，尽管正好是均线
14:59 - 15:02
EN: However, that is the simplest thing to do.
ZH: 这是最简单直接的做法
15:02 - 15:05
EN: Just when you see the strong bear close, just sell the close.
ZH: 只要看到强势的大阴线，就在它收盘的时候卖出
15:05 - 15:08
EN: If you want, you could wait for another bear bar.
ZH: 你也可以再等待一根K线
15:08 - 15:12
EN: At this point it’s a higher probability
ZH: 此时继续下跌到某个MM目标位的概率就更高了
15:10 - 15:12
EN: that we’re going to fall for some kind of a Measured Move.
ZH: 此时继续下跌到某个MM目标位的概率就更高了
15:12 - 15:16
EN: Or you could wait for the bar afterwards and sell the close of that bar,
ZH: 或者你可以等待跟随K线，在它的收盘卖出
15:16 - 15:19
EN: as long as it did not have a bull body.
ZH: 十字星算是合格的跟随
15:24 - 15:26
EN: When I say sell the close, I mentioned a moment ago
ZH: 我多次提到“卖收盘”一词
15:26 - 15:29
EN: that it means different things.
ZH: 实际上它也有多种含义
15:29 - 15:36
EN: Some traders will sell at the market
ZH: 一些人会在K线收盘前几秒钟，市价卖出， 或者挂限价卖单（注：比市价卖出要好1个tick）
15:32 - 15:36
EN: or with a limit order a second or two before the bar closes.
ZH: 一些人会在K线收盘前几秒钟，市价卖出， 或者挂限价卖单（注：比市价卖出要好1个tick）
15:36 - 15:39
EN: Some will sell as soon as the bar closes,
ZH: 一些人会在K线收盘的瞬间市价卖出，
15:39 - 15:41
EN: and they’ll get filled on the open of the next bar.
ZH: 订单会在下一根K线开盘的时候成交
15:41 - 15:43
EN: Some will place a limit order.
ZH: 一些人喜欢用限价单
15:43 - 15:47
EN: As soon as this bar closes, they place a limit order to sell at that close.
ZH: K线一收盘，他们就在收盘价挂限价卖单
15:47 - 15:49
EN: The risk is you miss the trade.
ZH: 这样做的风险是，有可能无法成交，导致错过交易 （注：如果没成交，更改订单，或者市价去追）
15:49 - 15:54
EN: If the high of this bar does not get above that close, you will not get filled.
ZH: 如果下一根K线始终没能上涨到收盘价上方1个tick， 限价卖单就无法成交
15:57 - 15:58
EN: Here’s an example.
ZH: 这里就有一个案例
15:58 - 16:02
EN: Let’s say this bear bar, you thought, “Okay, we’re going down.
ZH: 假设你看到这根阴线，你想到： “好，还会下跌
16:02 - 16:06
EN: I’m just going to place a limit order to sell at the close of this bar
ZH: 等它收盘后，让我在这根K线的收盘价挂一个限价卖单。”
16:06 - 16:10
EN: when the next bar opens.” So when this bar closes, you place your limit order
ZH: 于是在它收盘之后，你在它的收盘价挂了限价卖单
16:10 - 16:13
EN: to sell at its close, and look at the high of the next bar.
ZH: 但是看后一根K线的最高价
16:13 - 16:17
EN: It never went above that close, and therefore you did not get short.
ZH: 它从未能够超过前一根K线的收盘价，因此你的订单没有成交 （注：以前讲过，需要超过1个tick才能确保成交）
16:17 - 16:19
EN: If you kept your limit order,
ZH: 如果你一直把订单保留在那里
16:19 - 16:22
EN: this high looks like it’s possibly above that close.
ZH: 这个高点应该超过了它的收盘价，
16:22 - 16:24
EN: You would’ve been filled over here.
ZH: 所以最终你还是成功地入场做空了
16:24 - 16:25
EN: But that’s your risk.
ZH: 但这样做就有错过的风险
16:25 - 16:30
EN: In a very strong bear trend, sometimes if you place a limit order to sell
ZH: 在一个非常强势的下降趋势中，如果你在K线的收盘价挂限价卖单，
16:30 - 16:35
EN: at the close of a bar, the next bar will not get
ZH: 有时候下一根K线不会触发你的限价单，导致无法成交
16:33 - 16:35
EN: above your limit order and you will not get filled.
ZH: 有时候下一根K线不会触发你的限价单，导致无法成交
16:39 - 16:42
EN: At this point, and certainly by this point,
ZH: 这里，尤其是这里，
16:42 - 16:45
EN: the market is clearly Always In Short and you have to get short.
ZH: 市场显然处于单边下跌，因此必须做空
16:45 - 16:47
EN: You have to do something to get short.
ZH: 你必须通过某种方式入场做空
16:47 - 16:50
EN: And as I say, one of the easiest ways to do it is,
ZH: 刚才已经讲到，最简单的一个做法就是
16:50 - 16:55
EN: as soon as you see a strong bear close,
ZH: 当你看到一根强势的阴线收盘，直接市价做空， 然后设置好正确的止损
16:52 - 16:55
EN: just sell the market and use the appropriate stop.
ZH: 当你看到一根强势的阴线收盘，直接市价做空， 然后设置好正确的止损
16:59 - 17:05
EN: Sell The Close bears, strong bear bar, they just sell the close
ZH: 那些卖收盘的空头，一看到强势的阴线，就在它收盘时卖出， 一路盈利加仓
17:02 - 17:05
EN: of the strong bear bar all the way down.
ZH: 那些卖收盘的空头，一看到强势的阴线，就在它收盘时卖出， 一路盈利加仓
17:05 - 17:09
EN: They don’t take all of these sells, but they take at least one.
ZH: 不一定要在每根K线都卖出，但至少应该抓住其中一个
17:09 - 17:14
EN: And some aggressive traders will add on as the trend goes their way.
ZH: 一些激进的交易者会在趋势中不断地盈利加仓
17:14 - 17:18
EN: Let’s say he sells this close, and then he sees the market doing this;
ZH: 假设他在这个收盘价入场做空，然后看到了这样的价格行为
17:18 - 17:19
EN: he might sell more here.
ZH: 他就在这里卖出更多
17:19 - 17:22
EN: Another breakout, he might add to his position here.
ZH: 新的跌破，他继续加仓
17:22 - 17:27
EN: He would be scaling into a winning trade instead of scaling into a losing trade.
ZH: 他会在盈利的交易中不断加仓，而不是在亏损的交易中加仓
17:28 - 17:31
EN: The important point is you have to get short,
ZH: 关键是，你必须要入场做空
17:31 - 17:35
EN: and all of these bear closes are reasonable entry places.
ZH: 所有这些阴线的收盘，都是合理的做空入场点
17:40 - 17:46
EN: You have to be very careful about a Sell The Close trend
ZH: 如果在尾盘最后一小时，出现了卖收盘的下降趋势， 或者买收盘的上涨趋势，
17:42 - 17:46
EN: or a Buy The Close trend that begins in the final hour.
ZH: 如果在尾盘最后一小时，出现了卖收盘的下降趋势， 或者买收盘的上涨趋势，
17:46 - 17:50
EN: You have to be prepared to exit very quickly on a reversal.
ZH: 你需要非常小心，一旦有反转的迹象，就要快速离场
17:50 - 17:56
EN: You can see the video on trading the end of the day
ZH: 这些内容在关于尾盘交易的章节中会详细讲解 （注：第48单元的最后3节课）
17:53 - 17:56
EN: for more information about what I’m talking about.
ZH: 这些内容在关于尾盘交易的章节中会详细讲解 （注：第48单元的最后3节课）
17:57 - 18:03
EN: Today is not an example of that, but you could argue this is Sell The Close,
ZH: 今天并不属于那种情况，尽管你可以说已经很接近尾盘， 而且这是卖收盘的下降趋势
18:01 - 18:03
EN: and we’re very close to the final hour.
ZH: 今天并不属于那种情况，尽管你可以说已经很接近尾盘， 而且这是卖收盘的下降趋势
18:03 - 18:06
EN: If you do sell that close, you’ve got to make some quick
ZH: 如果你真的在它的收盘卖出做空了，
18:06 - 18:09
EN: decisions once you see it start to reverse.
ZH: 一旦看到价格开始反转上涨，就要快速地做出离场的决定
Slide 010
Time: 18:15
Bilingual Transcript
18:17 - 18:22
EN: Sell The Close bears, they’re looking to sell very strong bear bars,
ZH: 对于卖收盘的空头而言，他们想看到强势的大阴线
18:22 - 18:27
EN: especially a series of very strong bear bars closing on or near their lows,
ZH: 尤其是一系列强势的大阴线收在最低
18:27 - 18:30
EN: and they’ll continue to sell all the way down.
ZH: 他们会一路卖出做空
18:30 - 18:33
EN: Some will sell and then take profits, sell and take profits.
ZH: 其中有的人会卖出、止盈；卖出、止盈 （注：这些是剥头皮交易者，但新手不应该这样做）
18:33 - 18:38
EN: Others will sell and then once the market goes their way, they’ll sell more.
ZH: 一些人在卖出之后，如果市场朝着预期的方向发展， 他们会盈利加仓
18:41 - 18:43
EN: Most traders take one entry.
ZH: 更多的交易者不会加仓
18:43 - 18:47
EN: They’ll sell one of these – doesn’t matter which one
ZH: 他们在某个地方入场之后，就坚定持有做波段交易
18:46 - 18:47
EN: - and then just swing trade it.
ZH: 他们在某个地方入场之后，就坚定持有做波段交易
18:47 - 18:51
EN: So if they sell anywhere in here, they’ll put a stop up here
ZH: 比如，在这里某个地方入场做空之后，他们把止损放在这里
18:51 - 18:53
EN: and then they’ll just hold on.
ZH: 然后就坚定持有
18:53 - 18:57
EN: I had a friend – I traded with him for several years – in a market like this,
ZH: 我有一个朋友——我和他一起交易了好几年—— 在这种行情中，
18:57 - 19:02
EN: he would just take a trade and then he would place his stop,
ZH: 他入场之后，设置好止损，
19:02 - 19:07
EN: and he’d place a profit target a Measured Move down, and then he would go out.
ZH: 然后把止盈的现价买单放在MM目标位，然后就出去了 （注：OCO订单，也叫bracket订单，一个成交之后会自动取消另一个）
19:07 - 19:12
EN: He lived on a lake, and he’d go out on the lake and row his canoe
ZH: 他住在湖边，他会出去划船
19:12 - 19:14
EN: for a couple of hours and then come back later.
ZH: 几个小时之后再回来
19:14 - 19:16
EN: So he’d come back somewhere near here and he’d say,
ZH: 比如他在这个时候回来，然后说：
19:16 - 19:18
EN: “Oh, Al, I’ve almost reached my profit.”
ZH: “阿尔，你看，我的目标位快要到了”
19:18 - 19:20
EN: Or sometimes he would have reached his profit
ZH: 有时在他回来之前，目标就到了
19:20 - 19:25
EN: and he’d be back to flat and he’d say, “Oh, it looks like I made money.”
ZH: 他回来的时候发现已经平仓，就会说： “不错，今天赚钱了。”
19:25 - 19:28
EN: I traded with the fellow for several years online,
ZH: 我和他在网上一起交易了很多年
19:28 - 19:33
EN: and I don’t ever remember him once losing money doing that.
ZH: 在我的印象中，他这么做的时候从来没亏过钱
19:33 - 19:37
EN: He’d go on errands, he’d take his mother
ZH: 他有时出去办事，或者带妈妈去看病，或者去超市购物
19:35 - 19:37
EN: to the doctor’s office, he’d go to Walmart.
ZH: 他有时出去办事，或者带妈妈去看病，或者去超市购物
19:37 - 19:40
EN: He’d just disappear every day in the middle of the day.
ZH: 总之，每天他都会消失一段时间
19:40 - 19:43
EN: Once he sees what he thought was a trend day,
ZH: 只要他认为当天是趋势日
19:43 - 19:48
EN: he would place his order to get in, he’d place his stop,
ZH: 他就会在开仓之后设置好止损和止盈的订单，
19:46 - 19:48
EN: and he’d place a limit order to take profits
ZH: 他就会在开仓之后设置好止损和止盈的订单，
19:48 - 19:50
EN: and then come back a couple hours later.
ZH: 过几个小时之后再回来
19:56 - 19:59
EN: Some traders sell every close.
ZH: 一些交易者在每根K线的收盘都卖出
19:59 - 20:02
EN: If they have a big enough account, they can just keep selling all the way down.
ZH: 如果账户足够大，就可以一路加仓做空
20:03 - 20:06
EN: I don’t know anyone who has done that.
ZH: 我不认识任何这样做的人 （注：机构是这样做的，但对于个人而言很难）
20:06 - 20:10
EN: One of my goals in life is to someday do that, and just keep selling,
ZH: 我的人生目标之一，就是在某一天可以这样做，
20:10 - 20:13
EN: selling, selling, selling, selling, and sell 10 times.
ZH: 不断地卖出、卖出、卖出、卖出… 加仓10次
20:13 - 20:18
EN: I’ve never done it, but at some point in life I hope to do that at least once.
ZH: 我还从来没这样做过， 但在人生的某个时刻，我希望能达成这个成就
20:23 - 20:25
EN: Why do you think this bar looks like this?
ZH: 为什么这根K线看起来是这样的？
20:25 - 20:27
EN: Why is it a big bear bar closing on its low?
ZH: 为什么它是一根大阴线收在最低？
20:27 - 20:30
EN: It’s because the institutions are selling,
ZH: 因为机构在大量卖出
20:30 - 20:32
EN: especially right before the close of the bar.
ZH: 尤其是在它的收盘之前
20:32 - 20:41
EN: They believe the market’s going down and they want to get short.
ZH: 他们认为市场会下跌，他们想做空 他们希望这根K线看起来很强势， 这样其他交易者在看到它的时候，就会说：
20:36 - 20:41
EN: And they also want the bar to look bearish because they want other people
ZH: 他们希望这根K线看起来很强势， 这样其他交易者在看到它的时候，就会说：
20:40 - 20:43
EN: to look at the chart and say, “Yeah, it’s going down.
ZH: 他们希望这根K线看起来很强势， 这样其他交易者在看到它的时候，就会说： “嗯，要下跌了，我要入场做空！”
20:42 - 20:43
EN: I’ve got to sell.”
ZH: “嗯，要下跌了，我要入场做空！”
Slide 011
Time: 20:45
Bilingual Transcript
20:47 - 20:48
EN: Strong bear breakout.
ZH: 强势的空头突破
20:48 - 20:51
EN: If you want, you can call it a bear reversal.
ZH: 你也可以称之为反转
20:55 - 20:57
EN: A common problem is traders look at that and say,
ZH: 一个常见的问题是，新手说：
20:57 - 21:02
EN: “Oh my gosh, I want to sell, but my stop is way up here.
ZH: “哎呀，我很想做空，但止损这么远，超出了我的承受范围。”
21:00 - 21:02
EN: That’s more than I want to risk.
ZH: “哎呀，我很想做空，但止损这么远，超出了我的承受范围。”
21:02 - 21:07
EN: I’m going to wait for a pullback.” But the problem, as I said earlier,
ZH: “我还是等反弹之后再入场吧” 但前面也讲到，问题是它继续下跌很久才反弹
21:05 - 21:07
EN: is it may not pull back for a lot of bars.
ZH: “我还是等反弹之后再入场吧” 但前面也讲到，问题是它继续下跌很久才反弹
21:07 - 21:10
EN: It may just keep working lower and lower and lower,
ZH: 它可能会继续下跌，下跌，下跌
21:10 - 21:13
EN: and then you find yourself missing a huge bear trend.
ZH: 然后你发现自己错过了一个巨大的下降趋势
21:13 - 21:18
EN: Your desire to reduce your risk – avoid putting a stop all the way up here
ZH: 你想要减少风险——不想把止损放在这个高点上方
21:18 - 21:21
EN: - results in you missing the best part of a big trend.
ZH: ——最终导致错过了这么大的趋势
21:25 - 21:29
EN: As soon as you think the market cycle has changed into a strong breakout
ZH: 一旦你认为市场周期已经进入了强势突破的阶段
21:29 - 21:38
EN: and the market’s Always In Short, you should really force yourself
ZH: 此时市场处于单边下跌之中， 你应该强迫自己用很小的仓位入场做空，并设置正确的止损
21:32 - 21:38
EN: to at least sell a small position if you can use the appropriate stop.
ZH: 此时市场处于单边下跌之中， 你应该强迫自己用很小的仓位入场做空，并设置正确的止损
21:38 - 21:43
EN: If the stop is too far and it makes you too nervous, do not take the trade.
ZH: 如果止损太远，让你非常紧张，那就不要交易
21:43 - 21:44
EN: Then wait for a pullback.
ZH: 只能等待反弹了
21:50 - 21:52
EN: Beginners are always looking for perfect trades,
ZH: 新手总是在寻找完美的机会
21:52 - 21:57
EN: and the reality is nothing is ever more than 60% certain.
ZH: 但现实是，没有什么东西的确定性是超过60%的
21:57 - 22:03
EN: If you sell this close, well, there’s a 60% chance you’re going
ZH: 如果你在它的收盘卖出， 那么有60%的概率可以在MM目标位止盈，
22:01 - 22:04
EN: to make a Measured Move down before it gets up here,
ZH: 如果你在它的收盘卖出， 那么有60%的概率可以在MM目标位止盈， 而不是上涨打掉你的止损
22:04 - 22:06
EN: and that’s as good as it gets as a trader.
ZH: 对于交易者而言，这已经足够好了
22:06 - 22:11
EN: And if you’re trying to be a trader, you’ve got to take the trades
ZH: 如果你想成为一名交易员，你就必须入场交易
22:11 - 22:14
EN: - assuming you can use the appropriate stop.
ZH: ——设置正确的止损
22:14 - 22:17
EN: If you cannot use the appropriate stop, don’t worry about it.
ZH: 如果止损太大，让你无法承受，也不用纠结
22:17 - 22:18
EN: Do not take the trade.
ZH: 先不要进行交易
22:18 - 22:19
EN: Just wait.
ZH: 等待就行
22:23 - 22:30
EN: Again, if you cannot decide how to sell or if you’re taking 2 bars, 3 bars,
ZH: 如果你无法决定何时入场，或者拖了2、3、4根K线仍然无法决定，
22:29 - 22:34
EN: 4 bars waiting to decide, simply sell at the market and use the correct stop.
ZH: 如果你无法决定何时入场，或者拖了2、3、4根K线仍然无法决定， 那么直接市价卖出，并设置正确的止损就可以了
22:36 - 22:40
EN: For example, you sell the close and you say the stop is really far.
ZH: 例如，在它的收盘卖出，但你觉得止损太远了
22:40 - 22:43
EN: Well, trade really small, but just get short.
ZH: 那么用很小的仓位就可以了，但一定要入场
Slide 012
Time: 22:45
Bilingual Transcript
22:49 - 22:51
EN: What about selling bear flags, pullbacks?
ZH: 在熊旗和反弹的时候入场做空呢？
22:51 - 22:55
EN: Like Low 1, Low 2, Low 3’s, Wedges, Triangles.
ZH: 比如低1，低2，低3，楔形，三角形
22:56 - 22:58
EN: You can do it for swing trades or for scalps.
ZH: 既可以做波段，也可以做剥头皮
22:58 - 23:03
EN: The probability is high enough for scalps
ZH: 如果使用正确的止损——波段止损， 在这里做剥头皮交易的胜率是非常傲的
23:00 - 23:03
EN: if you use the appropriate stop, a swing stop.
ZH: 如果使用正确的止损——波段止损， 在这里做剥头皮交易的胜率是非常傲的
23:03 - 23:05
EN: Here, we have a resumption of the bear trend.
ZH: 这里，下降趋势恢复
23:05 - 23:06
EN: We have a Double Top.
ZH: 有一个双顶
23:06 - 23:09
EN: You can call it a Low 2 – Low 1, Low 2.
ZH: 可以说它是低2——低1，低2
23:09 - 23:11
EN: If you want you can call it a Low 1.
ZH: 也可以把它看作是低1
23:11 - 23:14
EN: Bear trend down to here and a pullback, Low 1.
ZH: 下跌到这里，反弹，低1
23:14 - 23:16
EN: You can call it a Low 2 here.
ZH: 这样看的话就是低2
23:16 - 23:17
EN: A Low 1, Low 2.
ZH: 低1，低2
23:17 - 23:19
EN: Doesn’t matter what you call it.
ZH: 这并不是关键
23:19 - 23:20
EN: It’s a bear flag.
ZH: 关键是它是熊旗
23:21 - 23:25
EN: If you take that short and then you see the failed Low 2 bar right here
ZH: 如果你在这里入场做空，然后看到这个低2失败了
23:25 - 23:30
EN: - Low 1, Low 2 – you could get out above this bar or you could rely on your stop.
ZH: ——低1，低2——你可以在这根K线上方先离场， 或者依赖初始止损
23:31 - 23:36
EN: And then here we have a bigger nested Low 2 – Leg 1, pullback, Leg 2,
ZH: 这里有一个嵌套式的低2结构——第1段，回调，第2段
23:36 - 23:40
EN: and this was subdivided into a Low 1, Low 2,
ZH: 第1段可以细分成更小的低1，低2
23:40 - 23:43
EN: and then this subdivided into a Low 1, Low 2.
ZH: 第2段也可以细分成更小的低1，低2
23:43 - 23:45
EN: So it’s a larger Low 1, Low 2.
ZH: 同时也是一个大的低1、低2
23:45 - 23:47
EN: Again, it doesn’t matter what you call it.
ZH: 给它起什么名字并不是关键
23:47 - 23:50
EN: The key point is it’s still Always In Short.
ZH: 关键是，目前仍然处于下降趋势
23:51 - 23:54
EN: This bull reversal is small relative to the bear breakout,
ZH: 相对于左边的空头突破而言，反转上涨的幅度较小
23:54 - 23:58
EN: and it’s simply a 50% pullback and a test of yesterday’s close.
ZH: 只是50%反弹，和对昨天收盘价的测试
23:58 - 24:02
EN: The market’s still Always In Short, and therefore it’s still likely to go down.
ZH: 市场仍然处于下降趋势，所以大概率会恢复下跌
24:05 - 24:10
EN: Another bear breakout, rally, Low 1, rally again, Low 2.
ZH: 新的空头突破：上涨，低1，再次上涨，低2
24:10 - 24:11
EN: Another Low 2 short.
ZH: 有一个低2做空入场点
24:14 - 24:16
EN: If you want, you can call it a Triangle.
ZH: 也可以把它看作是三角形
24:16 - 24:17
EN: It’s a Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 这是一个窄震荡区间
24:17 - 24:20
EN: Three pushes up, bull bar and then bear bar,
ZH: 3次向上的推动——上涨，下跌；
24:20 - 24:22
EN: couple bull bars, bear bar, bull bar.
ZH: 上涨，下跌；上涨
24:22 - 24:25
EN: So selling below that bull bar would be a Low 3 short.
ZH: 所以在这个阳线的下方卖出，是低3入场点
24:25 - 24:27
EN: Tight Trading Range or a Triangle.
ZH: 窄震荡区间，也是三角形
24:30 - 24:33
EN: Here we went up, we went down, we went up again, and we have a bear bar.
ZH: 上涨，下跌，再次上涨，然后有一根阴线
24:33 - 24:35
EN: Bear inside bar.
ZH: 空头孕线
24:35 - 24:38
EN: It’s a Low 2 short – Low 1 below that bull bar.
ZH: 这是低2做空入场点——低1在那个阳线下方
24:38 - 24:40
EN: Bulls tried to resume again, Low 2 here.
ZH: 多头再次尝试上涨，这里是低2
24:43 - 24:45
EN: Choose one entry.
ZH: 选择一个入场点
24:45 - 24:46
EN: It doesn’t matter which one.
ZH: 不管是哪一个
24:46 - 24:52
EN: And once you choose the entry, you can always look to the left
ZH: 选择好了之后，就看左边，寻找正确的止损位置
24:50 - 24:58
EN: and find an obvious stop location, and it doesn’t matter
ZH: 选择好了之后，就看左边，寻找正确的止损位置 不管你在哪里入场，把止损放在这里都是正确的
24:53 - 24:58
EN: which of these entries you took; it’s appropriate to use the stop up here.
ZH: 不管你在哪里入场，把止损放在这里都是正确的
24:58 - 25:03
EN: At some point after a number of bars
ZH: 几根K线之后，或者再次创新低之后，可以把止损移动下来
25:00 - 25:03
EN: or a bear breakout here, you can lower your stop.
ZH: 几根K线之后，或者再次创新低之后，可以把止损移动下来
25:09 - 25:12
EN: When the market’s in a very strong bear trend,
ZH: 当市场处于非常强势的下降趋势时
25:12 - 25:14
EN: a lot of times it’ll have a series of Low 1’s
ZH: 很多时候会有一系列的低1，一直没有低2 （注：趋势太强，每次都只有一段反弹）
25:14 - 25:18
EN: before the market weakens enough to start forming Low 2’s.
ZH: 直到趋势开始变弱
25:18 - 25:23
EN: As trends progress, the pullbacks become more complex,
ZH: 随着趋势的发展，回调/反弹的结构会变得更复杂
25:23 - 25:28
EN: so instead of a Low 1, you might get a Low 2.
ZH: 不再是只有低1，而是开始出现低2，甚至还有低3
25:25 - 25:28
EN: Instead of a Low 2, you might get a Low 3.
ZH: 不再是只有低1，而是开始出现低2，甚至还有低3
25:28 - 25:31
EN: And also, the reversals tend to become deeper.
ZH: 而且，反弹的幅度也会变得更大
25:31 - 25:34
EN: Is this a major reversal? Probably not.
ZH: 这是大反转吗？不是
25:34 - 25:36
EN: It’s a very Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 下降通道很窄
25:36 - 25:39
EN: Even though it’s a strong reversal, it’s still probably minor,
ZH: 尽管反弹很强势，但仍然是小反转
25:39 - 25:43
EN: which means probably the best the bulls get is a Trading Range.
ZH: 也就是说，最多变成震荡区间而已
Slide 013
Time: 25:45
Bilingual Transcript
25:50 - 25:51
EN: Very Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 下降通道很窄
25:51 - 25:53
EN: The reversal is probably minor.
ZH: 大概率只是小反转
25:53 - 25:56
EN: Probably the best the bulls get is a Trading Range,
ZH: 最多变成震荡区间
25:56 - 26:01
EN: and the bears will probably get at least a test back down to the bear trend low.
ZH: 空头至少能够让市场跌回到前期的低点附近
26:01 - 26:05
EN: This is the bear trend low, reversal attempt minor.
ZH: 也就是这个低点，这只是小反转
26:07 - 26:12
EN: And therefore, bears will sell bull closes or they’ll sell above bull bars,
ZH: 因此，空头会在阳线的收盘卖出，或者在阳线上方卖出，
26:12 - 26:15
EN: betting that the reversal will be minor and that either the market
ZH: 押注这只是小反转，
26:15 - 26:21
EN: will go straight down or, if it goes up, it’ll come back down
ZH: 要么直接下跌，或者反弹之后跌回到前期的低点
26:18 - 26:21
EN: to the low later on as part of a Trading Range.
ZH: 要么直接下跌，或者反弹之后跌回到前期的低点
26:25 - 26:30
EN: Sell a breakout, betting that the breakout will fail to get very far up
ZH: 在多头突破时卖出，押注不会涨很多
26:30 - 26:33
EN: and the bears will win and the market will resume down.
ZH: 押注最终空头能够让下降趋势恢复
26:35 - 26:36
EN: And you can sell above bars.
ZH: 也可以在K线的上方挂限价卖单
26:36 - 26:39
EN: Here we have a bull breakout and a pullback to a bull flag.
ZH: 多头突破之后，回调形成牛旗
26:39 - 26:44
EN: The bulls want a Measured Move up to the high, and the bears are betting
ZH: 多头想要继续上涨到MM目标位
26:44 - 26:49
EN: that the bull breakout will fail and the bear trend will resume.
ZH: 而空头押注多头会失败，押注下降趋势恢复
26:49 - 26:53
EN: So you’re selling above what you believe is a bad bull flag.
ZH: 所以这不是一个好的牛旗，因此可以在牛旗的上方卖出做空 （注：把限价卖单挂在做多信号K线的上方1个tick）
26:55 - 26:58
EN: Also, as I said, it’s about a 50% pullback.
ZH: 另外，这里大约是50%反弹
26:58 - 27:03
EN: Here’s the top of the bear trend,
ZH: 下降趋势的起跌点，到最低点，50%反弹在这里
27:00 - 27:03
EN: the bottom of the bear trend, here’s a 50% pullback.
ZH: 下降趋势的起跌点，到最低点，50%反弹在这里
27:03 - 27:06
EN: Some traders will place a limit order to sell right there at 50%.
ZH: 一些空头会在50%的地方挂限价卖单
27:06 - 27:11
EN: Others will sell on a reversal down here or a second entry short here.
ZH: 一些空头会在反转下跌时卖出，或者在这个第2做空入场点卖出
27:14 - 27:18
EN: You can also sell at a fixed number of points above the current low,
ZH: 也可以在低点上方固定的距离挂限价卖单
27:18 - 27:22
EN: like 1 point above, 2 points above, 4 points above, 10 points above.
ZH: 比如1个点，2个点，4个点，10个点
27:22 - 27:26
EN: All of those are popular areas for traders to sell.
ZH: 这些都是常用的挂单位置
27:29 - 27:31
EN: This is 10 points above the low.
ZH: 这里距离最低点10个点
27:31 - 27:35
EN: Chances are the reversal is minor and will not get much higher than that,
ZH: 因为大概率只是小反转，不会再上涨太多
27:35 - 27:39
EN: so some bears will simply place a limit order to sell 10 points above this low.
ZH: 所以一些空头会直接把限价卖单挂在低点上方10个点的位置
27:40 - 27:46
EN: You can also sell 10 points above an important close or 10 points above a high,
ZH: 你也可以挂在某个重要收盘价，或者某个高点上方10个点的位置，
27:46 - 27:49
EN: like the buy signal bar high, thinking that the bulls who take the buy,
ZH: 比如挂在某个做多信号K线高点上方10个点的位置
27:49 - 27:52
EN: if they get 10 points, they’re going to take profits.
ZH: 因为那些多头赚到10个点之后会止盈
Slide 014
Time: 27:55
Bilingual Transcript
27:59 - 28:02
EN: When you see the market is clearly Always In Short
ZH: 当你认为市场处于单边下跌之中
28:02 - 28:06
EN: and the reversal down is strong, the odds are you’re going to get a swing down.
ZH: 大阴线足够强势，那么大概率你可以赚到一个下跌的波段
28:06 - 28:09
EN: This is so extreme, it might go sideways first,
ZH: 这个抛售很极端，所以可能会先横盘一段时间
28:09 - 28:13
EN: but the odds are we’ll get trend resumption down.
ZH: 但大概率在横盘之后，下降趋势会继续
28:17 - 28:20
EN: I think it’s important to try to swing at least part of your position.
ZH: 至少保留部分仓位做波段交易是很重要的
28:20 - 28:25
EN: If you keep scalping out, that’s okay as long as you can keep selling again.
ZH: 如果一直赚快钱离场，就需要很强的反复入场的能力
28:26 - 28:31
EN: One of the reasons why scalpers have a hard time making as much
ZH: 在这样的趋势中，剥头皮交易者赚的钱往往不如趋势交易者那么多
28:30 - 28:35
EN: as swing traders during a trend like this is the scalper gets worn out.
ZH: 在这样的趋势中，剥头皮交易者赚的钱往往不如趋势交易者那么多 其中一个原因是，一直剥头皮很累
28:35 - 28:39
EN: They’ll take one or two scalps and they’ll be too emotionally exhausted
ZH: 做了几笔交易之后，身心感到疲惫，
28:39 - 28:42
EN: to get back short, and they’ll end up missing a lot of the trade.
ZH: 没有能够再次入场做空，导致错过了趋势
28:43 - 28:47
EN: I think the best approach for most traders in a situation like this
ZH: 对大部分交易者而言，遇到这种行情，
28:47 - 28:57
EN: is just use the appropriate stop, which is often wide, and hold short
ZH: 最好的方法就是设置正确的止损——比较宽； 然后坚定持有，直到有明确地反转结构再离场
28:51 - 28:57
EN: until there’s clearly a major reversal up or a major reversal setup.
ZH: 最好的方法就是设置正确的止损——比较宽； 然后坚定持有，直到有明确地反转结构再离场
28:57 - 29:02
EN: In a very Tight Channel like this, all of these reversals are minor.
ZH: 在这么窄的通道中，所有这些反转都只是小反转
29:05 - 29:09
EN: In the final hour after a channel is looking fairly weak
ZH: 在尾盘的最后1小时，通道开始变弱
29:09 - 29:13
EN: - a lot of overlap, the absence of consecutive bear bars, big bear bars
ZH: ——有很多重叠，没有连续的阴线、大阴线
29:13 - 29:17
EN: - you’re probably going to get some profit-taking, and therefore it’s reasonable
ZH: 很可能在尾盘会有空头止盈（导致价格反弹）
29:17 - 29:23
EN: to look to exit your swing trade in the final hour
ZH: 所以在尾盘的最后1小时左右，止盈保护利润是合理的， 比如在这里，或这里离场
29:20 - 29:23
EN: or near the final hour, either here or here.
ZH: 所以在尾盘的最后1小时左右，止盈保护利润是合理的， 比如在这里，或这里离场
29:23 - 29:25
EN: Because a lot of firms are going to do that,
ZH: 很多机构都会这么做
29:25 - 29:29
EN: and you could give back a lot of your profit if you keep holding.
ZH: 如果继续持有，可能会回吐大量的利润
29:32 - 29:38
EN: A 2 bar reversal, a decent buy signal bar right
ZH: 双K反转，很不错的阳线，已经是尾盘的最后1小时
29:35 - 29:38
EN: around the start of the final hour.
ZH: 双K反转，很不错的阳线，已经是尾盘的最后1小时
29:38 - 29:42
EN: We have a bear breakout below the bear channel and we’re trying to reverse up.
ZH: 加速跌破通道失败，开始反转上涨
29:44 - 29:48
EN: It’s still a minor reversal, but it could go far enough up
ZH: 仍然大概率只是小反转，但反弹幅度可能会比较大
29:48 - 29:51
EN: to erase a lot of your profits at the end of the day.
ZH: 导致你的利润大幅回撤
29:51 - 29:53
EN: A lot of firms will be taking profits.
ZH: 因为很多机构会在尾盘止盈
29:53 - 29:56
EN: Here we got Leg 1, pullback, Leg 2.
ZH: 1，反弹，2
29:56 - 30:00
EN: We’re right around a Leg 1, Leg 2 Measured Move as well.
ZH: 这里也大约是第1段 = 第2段的MM目标位
30:02 - 30:05
EN: We have a gap between this low and that high.
ZH: 在这个低点和那个高点之间有一个缺口
30:05 - 30:10
EN: Here’s the height of the range, and we’re right around a Measured Move down.
ZH: 把区间的高度往下翻一倍，正好也是这个MM目标位附近
30:13 - 30:17
EN: Even though it’s still Always In Short, it’s reasonable to look to exit.
ZH: 尽管市场目前仍然是下降趋势，但止盈离场是合理的
30:17 - 30:22
EN: We’re at different Measured Move targets, bottom of the channel, final hour
ZH: 这里有好几个MM目标位，同时处于通道的下沿， 而且已经是尾盘的最后1小时
30:22 - 30:25
EN: - reasonable to get out either here or above that bull bar.
ZH: 在这里，或者在那个阳线上方离场是合理的
30:26 - 30:30
EN: Even though this may be another bear flag and the market might continue down,
ZH: 尽管它可能还是一个熊旗，反弹之后会继续下跌
30:31 - 30:34
EN: this looks like a bear leg in what will become a Trading Range,
ZH: 这段下跌看上去即将演变成震荡区间
30:34 - 30:42
EN: and you will get profit-taking at the end of the day in a trend
ZH: 像这样的趋势，大阴线越来越少，在尾盘往往会有机构止盈
30:38 - 30:42
EN: that looks like this, a trend where you’re lacking consecutive big bear bars.
ZH: 像这样的趋势，大阴线越来越少，在尾盘往往会有机构止盈
30:43 - 30:45
EN: Especially since you’re at support.
ZH: 尤其是这里又有支撑（注：多个MM目标位）
Slide 015
Time: 30:50
Bilingual Transcript
30:50 - 30:52
EN: I began by talking about stops.
ZH: 这节课我先是讲解了止损
30:52 - 31:00
EN: If you’re talking about a bear trend, you always want to put your stop
ZH: 以下降趋势为例，止损总是应该放在最近一个重要高点的上方
30:56 - 31:00
EN: above the top of the most recent major Lower High.
ZH: 以下降趋势为例，止损总是应该放在最近一个重要高点的上方
31:01 - 31:05
EN: When you’re in a bear trend and the market’s clearly in a breakout
ZH: 如果处于下降趋势，而且是强势突破的阶段
31:05 - 31:10
EN: and the probability is high that it’s going lower, there are many ways to sell,
ZH: 做空的胜率非常高，有很多入场的方式
31:10 - 31:13
EN: and the key is if you can look at the stop and say
ZH: 关键是找到正确的止损位置，
31:13 - 31:17
EN: “yes, I can risk that much,” then you have to get short.
ZH: 如果你能够承担这样的风险，那么就必须入场做空
31:17 - 31:23
EN: Certainly within a bar or two or three of you deciding
ZH: 一旦认为市场处于单边下跌， 就需要在两三根K线之内做决定入场
31:21 - 31:23
EN: that the market is clearly Always In Short.
ZH: 一旦认为市场处于单边下跌， 就需要在两三根K线之内做决定入场
31:28 - 31:29
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
31:29 - 31:30
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课
31:30 - 31:34
EN: This is the fourth of four videos on trading breakouts.
ZH: 如何交易突破行情的4节课，到这里就全部讲完了