al-brooks-course
38C - Trading MTR Tops
Raw transcript and slide notes for 38C - Trading MTR Tops.
Overview
- Slides: 11
- Transcript segments: 534
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:11
EN: This is the third of four videos on trading Major Trend Reversal Tops.
ZH: 这是顶部大反转结构的第3节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:12
Bilingual Transcript
00:15 - 00:19
EN: In this video, I’m going to talk about Lower High Major Trend Reversals.
ZH: 这节课，我们主要来讲高点降低的大反转
Slide 002
Time: 00:21
Bilingual Transcript
00:23 - 00:30
EN: We have a gap up, which is a type of a bull trend
ZH: 跳空高开，这个缺口虽然非常短暂， 但它其实也是上涨趋势，
00:27 - 00:30
EN: even though it’s only a gap, and very brief.
ZH: 跳空高开，这个缺口虽然非常短暂， 但它其实也是上涨趋势，
00:33 - 00:35
EN: If you looked at the Cash Index,
ZH: 如果你看现金指数（的图）
00:35 - 00:39
EN: you would see a big bull trend bar from here up to here,
ZH: 你会看到从这里到这里，有一根大阳线
00:39 - 00:42
EN: and therefore it’s a strong bull trend – a strong breakout.
ZH: 因此这是一个强势的上涨趋势——强势的突破
00:51 - 00:54
EN: While the bulls were strong enough to create a big gap up,
ZH: 尽管多头足够强大，制造了很大的跳空缺口
00:54 - 00:58
EN: they were not strong enough to get good follow-through buying.
ZH: 但后续没有足够良好的跟随买盘
00:58 - 01:00
EN: We have 11 bars down.
ZH: 下跌了11根K线
01:00 - 01:04
EN: Many good size bear bars, consecutive bear bars here.
ZH: 有不少体积较大的阴线，这里有连续的阴线
01:04 - 01:09
EN: 3 bear bars here, 2 closing on their lows, both with good size bear bodies.
ZH: 这里连续3根阴线，其中两根体积很大，收在最低
01:09 - 01:15
EN: This is pretty good Selling Pressure, a pretty good sign
ZH: 这是相当大的卖压，尽管大幅跳空高开， 但这是空头变得强壮的信号
01:12 - 01:15
EN: that the bears are reasonably strong despite the big gap up.
ZH: 这是相当大的卖压，尽管大幅跳空高开， 但这是空头变得强壮的信号
01:19 - 01:25
EN: And because that’s the case, the market might be in a Trading Range
ZH: 正因为如此，市场可能处于震荡区间而不是上涨趋势
01:24 - 01:33
EN: instead of a bull trend, and if it’s in a Trading Range,
ZH: 正因为如此，市场可能处于震荡区间而不是上涨趋势 如果确实是震荡区间的话，在价格反弹之后， 可能会开始进入下降趋势，开始反转
01:26 - 01:33
EN: a rally up in that range could lead
ZH: 如果确实是震荡区间的话，在价格反弹之后， 可能会开始进入下降趋势，开始反转
01:29 - 01:33
EN: to the beginning of a bear trend, a reversal.
ZH: 如果确实是震荡区间的话，在价格反弹之后， 可能会开始进入下降趋势，开始反转
01:36 - 01:42
EN: The market’s rallying, and we have a Low 2 short – Low 1 here, Low 2 there
ZH: 价格反弹，这里出现了低2做空点——这里是低1，那里是低2
01:42 - 01:50
EN: - but a very Tight Bull Channel, and usually when we get a reversal down
ZH: 但上涨通道很窄，窄通道的第1次下跌，通常都只是小反转
01:46 - 01:50
EN: in a very Tight Bull Channel, the reversal is minor.
ZH: 但上涨通道很窄，窄通道的第1次下跌，通常都只是小反转
01:50 - 01:53
EN: Is this a Lower High Major Trend Reversal? Of course.
ZH: 这是高点降低的大反转吗？当然是
01:53 - 01:57
EN: We have a bull trend, we have pretty good Selling Pressure,
ZH: 上涨趋势，但是卖压很强
01:57 - 01:59
EN: and now we’re rallying to a Lower High.
ZH: 现在反弹没有超过之前的高点
01:59 - 02:04
EN: However, because it’s in a very Tight Channel, it’s more likely a minor reversal
ZH: 然而，因为它处于窄上涨通道，所以更有可能只是小反转
02:04 - 02:08
EN: and unlikely to lead to a bear trend at this point.
ZH: 目前还不足以完全反转成下降趋势
Slide 003
Time: 02:15
Bilingual Transcript
02:18 - 02:21
EN: For the bears, they can take this sell, but the probability
ZH: 对于空头来说，他们虽然可以在这里做空
02:21 - 02:24
EN: is not yet particularly high because this channel is tight.
ZH: 但胜率并不高，因为通道太窄了
02:24 - 02:27
EN: For the bears, they see this as a Double Top
ZH: 空头会把它看作是双顶
02:27 - 02:30
EN: with either this high, or the top of this Sell Climax.
ZH: 要么是这个高点，要么是这个抛售高潮的起跌点
02:30 - 02:34
EN: Very often when you get a Sell Climax like this and you get a reversal,
ZH: 在这样的抛售高潮之后，如果开始反转上涨
02:34 - 02:38
EN: the market tries to get a little bit above the top of the Sell Climax,
ZH: 反弹经常会略微超过这个抛售高潮的起跌点
02:38 - 02:43
EN: and the bulls who bought the Sell Climax will take profits there.
ZH: 那些押注反弹并买入的多头，会在那里止盈
02:43 - 02:45
EN: And the bears know the bulls will take profits
ZH: 空头知道多头会止盈
02:45 - 02:47
EN: and the bears start to sell there as well.
ZH: 所以他们也会在那里卖出做空
02:47 - 02:53
EN: This is also about a 50% pullback from what the bears hope
ZH: 同时，这也大约是50%反弹， 空头希望这就是下降趋势的开始
02:51 - 02:53
EN: is the start of a bear trend.
ZH: 同时，这也大约是50%反弹， 空头希望这就是下降趋势的开始
02:54 - 02:58
EN: Both are reasonable reasons for traders to start to look to short.
ZH: 这两个都是交易者考虑做空的合理理由
03:01 - 03:07
EN: If they take that short, their initial stop is
ZH: 如果在这里入场做空，初始止损应该放在强势下跌波段的起跌点上方
03:04 - 03:07
EN: at the top of the strong bear leg.
ZH: 如果在这里入场做空，初始止损应该放在强势下跌波段的起跌点上方
03:11 - 03:15
EN: Here, the market did sell off, and many bears,
ZH: 这里，市场真的下跌了
03:15 - 03:20
EN: because they think we have big up, big down, big confusion and a Trading Range,
ZH: 因为很多空头会认为，这是大涨、大跌的震荡区间
03:20 - 03:25
EN: if they sell here, will take profits around this low thinking
ZH: 所以一些在这里做空的空头，会在前期低点附近止盈
03:25 - 03:29
EN: that we might get a Double Bottom and then a leg up in the Trading Range.
ZH: 认为可能会在支撑位形成双底，然后是震荡区间内的上涨波段
03:29 - 03:32
EN: The initial target for these bears is this low.
ZH: 这些空头的初始目标是这个低点
03:32 - 03:36
EN: In general, when you trade a Major Trend Reversal,
ZH: 在做大反转的时候
03:36 - 03:39
EN: you have about a 40% chance of a swing profit.
ZH: 通常有40%的概率可以赚到波段的利润
03:39 - 03:42
EN: This is a good example of that.
ZH: 这就是一个很好的例子
03:42 - 03:44
EN: Despite the very Tight Bull Channel,
ZH: 尽管上涨通道非常窄
03:44 - 03:48
EN: the bears were able to get down to a new low.
ZH: 空头还是成功地跌破创新低了，并且继续下跌
03:46 - 03:48
EN: In fact, they even got lower.
ZH: 空头还是成功地跌破创新低了，并且继续下跌
03:51 - 03:54
EN: And had they held, they would’ve had a reward
ZH: 如果空头坚定持有的话，
03:54 - 03:56
EN: that was many times greater than their risk.
ZH: 他们的利润会是初始风险的很多倍
03:56 - 04:02
EN: They sell below this bar, stop probably up here because we might get one more,
ZH: 他们在这根K线下方卖出，止损放在这个高点上方
04:02 - 04:09
EN: or two more pushes up after a very Tight Bull Channel, yet the math is worth it.
ZH: 以防这个窄通道还有一两段小的上涨， （尽管止损不小）但在数学上也是值得的
04:09 - 04:11
EN: Their Initial Risk is up here.
ZH: 他们的初始风险在这里
04:11 - 04:17
EN: Their Actual Risk, had they sold below this low, would’ve been 1 tick
ZH: 他们在这个信号K的低点下方卖出， 实际风险仅仅只是在这根K线（入场K线）的高点上方
04:16 - 04:18
EN: above the high of this bar, so their Actual Risk was tiny.
ZH: 他们在这个信号K的低点下方卖出， 实际风险仅仅只是在这根K线（入场K线）的高点上方 所以实际风险非常小 （注：译者目测，这里的实际风险是4或5个ticks）
04:19 - 04:23
EN: And their reward at this point, partial profits at the new low,
ZH: 如果他们在前期低点止盈一部分，
04:23 - 04:25
EN: several times greater than the Actual Risk.
ZH: 利润已经是实际风险的好几倍 （注：利润大约是7个点左右，也就是28个ticks）
04:25 - 04:30
EN: And the final profit, if they exited down here or at the end of the day,
ZH: 而最终，如果他们在这里，或者在收盘前止盈离场 （注：利润分别是15或20个点左右，即60或80 ticks）
04:30 - 04:34
EN: would have been many, many times greater than their Actual Risk,
ZH: 利润会是实际风险的十几、二十倍
04:34 - 04:39
EN: and therefore taking a trade that only has
ZH: 所以即使胜率只有40%，这样的交易也是合理的
Slide 004
Time: 04:35
Bilingual Transcript
04:36 - 04:39
EN: a 40% probability of success makes sense.
ZH: 所以即使胜率只有40%，这样的交易也是合理的
04:40 - 04:44
EN: Even if you get a swing profit only 40% of the time,
ZH: 虽然赚到波段利润的概率只有40%
04:44 - 04:48
EN: it more than offsets the low probability of the trade.
ZH: 但是利润足够大，轻松地弥补了胜率的不足
04:49 - 04:56
EN: This is also a good example of how a reversal
ZH: 这也是一个很好的案例， 展示了尽管大概率是小反转，但偶尔也会发展成大反转
04:52 - 04:56
EN: that’s probably going to be minor is sometimes major,
ZH: 这也是一个很好的案例， 展示了尽管大概率是小反转，但偶尔也会发展成大反转
04:57 - 05:00
EN: and therefore it is reasonable to take the short and hold it for a swing.
ZH: 因此做空之后坚定持有是合理的
05:03 - 05:07
EN: If you want a higher probability trade, instead of taking this short,
ZH: 如果想要更高的胜率，与其在这里入场做空
05:07 - 05:11
EN: you wait for a strong bear breakout with pretty good follow-through.
ZH: 不如等待强势的空头突破，而且要看到良好的跟随
05:11 - 05:16
EN: And unfortunately, you did not get that anywhere down here.
ZH: 不过一直到这里都没有强势的向下跌破
05:16 - 05:22
EN: We have a bear breakout to a Higher Low.
ZH: 这根大阴线还没有创新低，向上反转失败， 再次下跌之后出现了缺口
05:20 - 05:22
EN: It failed, and then we have gaps.
ZH: 这根大阴线还没有创新低，向上反转失败， 再次下跌之后出现了缺口
05:22 - 05:24
EN: This high, that low.
ZH: 这个高点，和这个低点之间（存在缺口）
05:24 - 05:28
EN: Another attempt to get back above this low, and it’s unsuccessful.
ZH: 多头再次尝试补掉缺口，又失败了
05:29 - 05:37
EN: A trader who notices that the limit order bulls who bought
ZH: 如果注意到有多头在这个低点挂限价单买入， 但是他们赚不到钱
05:33 - 05:37
EN: at this low were unable to get out with a profit
ZH: 如果注意到有多头在这个低点挂限价单买入， 但是他们赚不到钱
05:37 - 05:40
EN: - that we did not get above the low here, did not get above the low here,
ZH: ——反弹没有超过这个低点，没有超过这个低点
05:40 - 05:45
EN: now we have a Double Top bear flag – this is I think a higher probability short.
ZH: 现在出现了双顶熊旗——这是胜率更高的做空机会
05:45 - 05:49
EN: Because now you have a gap, and you have trapped bulls
ZH: 因为空头制造了缺口，把多头套牢了
05:49 - 05:56
EN: who are desperately hoping for any kind of a rally
ZH: 多头急切地希望市场有一些反弹好让自己解套， 最终他们会放弃
05:51 - 05:56
EN: to get out without a loss, and they will give up.
ZH: 多头急切地希望市场有一些反弹好让自己解套， 最终他们会放弃
05:56 - 05:59
EN: Usually they’ll give up when a Low 2 triggers after the gap.
ZH: 通常，多头看到缺口之后的低2被触发时会放弃离场
05:59 - 06:01
EN: Low 1, Low 2.
ZH: 低1，低2
06:08 - 06:10
EN: As I said, the Actual Risk was tiny.
ZH: 之前提到过，这笔交易的实际风险非常小
06:10 - 06:16
EN: It was from your entry price, 1 tick below this bar, to 1 tick above that bar.
ZH: 从你的入场价格——这根K线下方1个tick， 到那根K线的上方1个tick
06:16 - 06:18
EN: That’s all you had to risk to take this trade.
ZH: 这就是这笔交易中你实际上承担的所有风险
06:18 - 06:21
EN: You did not know that when you put the trade on,
ZH: 在开仓的时候，你并不知道这些
06:21 - 06:23
EN: but once the trade starts to go your way,
ZH: 然而，一旦价格朝着你的方向移动，
06:23 - 06:27
EN: you do know that your Actual Risk was very, very small.
ZH: 你就知道了，实际风险其实非常非常小
06:32 - 06:37
EN: Once you get a new low and there’s reasonably good momentum in the selloff
ZH: 价格跌到了新低，抛售的动能很不错，
06:37 - 06:43
EN: - here, a very Tight Bear Channel – traders will change their stop from up here
ZH: ——这是非常窄的下降通道—— 空头会把他们的止损从这里降低到这个高点上方
06:42 - 06:47
EN: to above this high, because they’ll see this as a major Lower High.
ZH: ——这是非常窄的下降通道—— 空头会把他们的止损从这里降低到这个高点上方 因为这是新的重要的高点
06:47 - 06:50
EN: As long as the market stays below a major Lower High,
ZH: 只要价格不超过这个重要的高点，
06:50 - 06:54
EN: the bears have a chance of a continued bear trend.
ZH: 下降趋势的前提就仍然成立
Slide 005
Time: 07:00
Bilingual Transcript
07:05 - 07:08
EN: The bulls wanted to get a Double Bottom here.
ZH: 多头希望在这里形成双底
07:08 - 07:12
EN: They tried, but they failed, and the market continued down.
ZH: 他们尝试反转，但没有成功，市场继续下跌
07:12 - 07:18
EN: Therefore, another target on the down side
ZH: 因此，空头的另一个下跌目标是这个潜在双底的反向MM
07:15 - 07:18
EN: is a Measured Move down from the potential Double Bottom.
ZH: 因此，空头的另一个下跌目标是这个潜在双底的反向MM
07:18 - 07:22
EN: If the market did rally from this Double Bottom and broke
ZH: 假如市场从这个双底开始反转，并向上突破这个高点，
07:22 - 07:26
EN: above this Lower High, traders would be looking for a Measured Move up.
ZH: 多头会预期市场涨到上方的MM目标位
07:26 - 07:30
EN: Whenever there’s a potential Double Bottom like this and instead of going up,
ZH: 每当出现了这样潜在的双底，但没有上涨，
07:30 - 07:34
EN: it goes down, traders will look for a Measured Move down.
ZH: 而是向下跌破，空头就会预期反向的MM目标位
07:34 - 07:37
EN: You can see what happened when the market fell to a Measured Move down.
ZH: 可以看到，当市场跌到MM目标位时发生了什么
07:37 - 07:40
EN: There were profit takers, and that led to this reversal.
ZH: 空头买入止盈，导致了价格反弹
07:40 - 07:46
EN: This reversal ended up forming simply a Double Top bear flag with this high.
ZH: 这次反弹，和这个高点，最终变成了双顶熊旗
07:49 - 07:55
EN: This is a reasonable place to take profits, either final or partial profits.
ZH: 在这里止盈部分或全部，是合理的
07:55 - 07:59
EN: We’re at a Measured Move target and we have a potential Final Flag,
ZH: 因为这里是MM目标位，而且有潜在的末端熊旗
07:59 - 08:02
EN: a Low 2 late in a bear trend.
ZH: 下降趋势后期的低2
08:02 - 08:05
EN: We might get a bounce up.
ZH: 可能会有一些反弹
08:05 - 08:10
EN: Because the channel is so tight, the reversal up will probably be minor.
ZH: 因为通道非常窄，所以大概率只是小反转 （注：尽管有一定的幅度，但无法形成上涨趋势）
08:10 - 08:16
EN: However, it could go up fairly far because we’re at a significant support level
ZH: 然而，也可能会有较大的反弹幅度，因为这里是重要的支撑位
08:16 - 08:21
EN: – a Measured Move – plus we’re testing yesterday’s close and yesterday’s low,
ZH: ——MM目标位（是支撑）—— 而且正在测试昨天的收盘价和最低点
08:21 - 08:23
EN: and we have a potential Final Flag.
ZH: 并且这是潜在的末端熊旗
08:23 - 08:26
EN: If you want, you can look at it as a Wedge.
ZH: 你也可以把它看作是一个楔形底
08:26 - 08:28
EN: Three pushes – one, two, three.
ZH: 3次向下的推动——1，2，3
08:33 - 08:38
EN: Is this a major Lower High? We have a strong breakout and a new low,
ZH: 它是重要的高点吗？强势跌破创新低
08:39 - 08:40
EN: but this is not much of a rally.
ZH: 但这里其实并没有什么大的反弹
08:41 - 08:45
EN: Therefore, this might not be a particularly major Lower High.
ZH: 因此，这可能不是一个特别重要的高点 （注：抛售高潮的起跌点往往是反弹的目标位，会被略微超过）
08:45 - 08:49
EN: When I look to the left, the most important Lower High is still here,
ZH: 看左边，最重要的高点仍然在这里
08:49 - 08:59
EN: so theoretically the bears can hold short even if we break
ZH: 所以理论上，即使这个和这个高点高点被突破， 空头仍然可以继续持有，依赖这个重要的高点
08:54 - 08:59
EN: above this high and this high, relying on this as their major Lower High.
ZH: 所以理论上，即使这个和这个高点高点被突破， 空头仍然可以继续持有，依赖这个重要的高点
09:00 - 09:04
EN: During this rally, the bears still have a reasonable argument
ZH: 在反弹期间，空头仍然可以认为
09:04 - 09:10
EN: that we’re in a Broad Bear Channel as long
ZH: 只要这个高点不被突破，市场就处于宽下降通道
09:07 - 09:10
EN: as the rally does not get above this high.
ZH: 只要这个高点不被突破，市场就处于宽下降通道
09:10 - 09:12
EN: Again, this is a minor high.
ZH: 所以，它只是次要的高点
09:12 - 09:14
EN: This is a minor high.
ZH: 它也是次要的高点
09:14 - 09:15
EN: This is a minor high.
ZH: 它也是次要的高点
09:15 - 09:20
EN: Because there was only a brief reversal up before the new low,
ZH: 因为几乎没有什么上涨，就下跌创新低了
09:20 - 09:24
EN: I view this as part of this bear channel,
ZH: 所以它是下降通道的一部分
09:24 - 09:27
EN: and this as the beginning of the leg down.
ZH: 而它才是这段下跌的起跌点
09:27 - 09:34
EN: If you look at a higher timeframe chart, a Tight Bear Channel like this
ZH: 如果切换到更高的时间周期， 这个窄下降通道就只是一系列的连续阴线
09:31 - 09:34
EN: is just a series of trend bars, bear trend bars.
ZH: 如果切换到更高的时间周期， 这个窄下降通道就只是一系列的连续阴线
09:34 - 09:38
EN: So this is still a breakout phase even though we’re getting
ZH: 所以这仍然是突破阶段，
09:38 - 09:41
EN: repeated reversal attempts on this chart.
ZH: 尽管在这个时间周期，看似有一些多头在尝试反转
09:43 - 09:45
EN: Do the bears get out on a stop above here?
ZH: 空头会在这个高点上方离场吗？
09:45 - 09:50
EN: Well, I think if you’re thinking about getting out above a minor reversal,
ZH: 如果你想避免反弹，避免利润回撤
09:50 - 09:54
EN: it’s better to get out maybe here, a second reversal up.
ZH: 最好在这里，第2次向上反转时离场 （注：既然要提前离场，就要足够提前、足够早）
09:54 - 09:57
EN: First reversal up, pullback, second reversal up.
ZH: 第1次向上反转，回调，第2次向上反转
09:57 - 10:01
EN: Sell Climax late in a bear trend, a potential Final Flag.
ZH: 下降趋势后期的抛售高潮，而且它是潜在的末端熊旗
10:02 - 10:07
EN: Therefore, if I’m choosing whether to get out early or late,
ZH: 所以，要么提前离场，要么依赖重要高点上方的止损
10:07 - 10:10
EN: up here, those are my reasonable choices.
ZH: 这些事合理的选择
10:10 - 10:19
EN: This is not a reasonable choice because if the market goes above here
ZH: 而在这里离场不是合理的选择 （注：不早不晚，尴尬） 因为就算这个高点被突破——它是次要的高点—— 也很难变成上涨趋势
10:14 - 10:19
EN: - a minor high – it’s probably not going to lead to a bull trend.
ZH: 因为就算这个高点被突破——它是次要的高点—— 也很难变成上涨趋势
10:19 - 10:22
EN: It’s probably only going to lead to either a Trading Range
ZH: 更有可能只是变成震荡区间
10:22 - 10:25
EN: or a Double Top bear flag, which it did here.
ZH: 或者双顶熊旗，就像这样
10:25 - 10:29
EN: So this is not a really good exit location.
ZH: 所以在这里离场并不是特别好
10:29 - 10:33
EN: If you’re thinking about exiting before it gets above a major Lower High,
ZH: 如果你想提前离场，而不是依赖初始止损
10:33 - 10:37
EN: it’s better to exit on the reversal up early
ZH: 那么离场就要越早越好
10:37 - 10:40
EN: and then look to sell again on a reversal down.
ZH: 然后在下跌时再次入场做空
10:42 - 10:50
EN: I sometimes refer to this as a “skunk stop” because skunks get killed
ZH: 我有时候称之为“臭止损”，因为臭鼬会出现在马路当中， 然后被撞死（或者已经死了，导致死机急刹车）
10:48 - 10:50
EN: when they’re in the middle of the road, and the middle of the road
ZH: 我有时候称之为“臭止损”，因为臭鼬会出现在马路当中， 然后被撞死（或者已经死了，导致死机急刹车）
10:50 - 10:54
EN: is either you’re taking the early exit or the wide exit,
ZH: 你要么提前离场，要么依赖初始止损
10:54 - 11:00
EN: and taking any of these minor exits in between is going to cost you money.
ZH: 在当中不上不下的地方离场，会让你亏钱
11:05 - 11:10
EN: Whenever the market’s in a trend like this, bears will get out on reversals.
ZH: 下降趋势已经达到了目标位，所以空头会在反转上涨时离场
11:10 - 11:12
EN: Some bears might get out up here.
ZH: 也许有人会在这里离场
11:12 - 11:13
EN: I would not.
ZH: 我不会
11:13 - 11:15
EN: If anything, I would be looking to sell again
ZH: 我只会寻找继续做空的机会
11:15 - 11:18
EN: because it’s only a minor Lower High.
ZH: 因为这只是一个次要的高点
11:18 - 11:22
EN: Had a bear gotten out, he would have to look to sell again,
ZH: 如果一个空头在这里离场了，他应该再次入场做空
11:22 - 11:25
EN: and typically he’ll sell below a bear bar.
ZH: 比如在阴线下方卖出
11:25 - 11:27
EN: And here’s a bear bar or here’s a bear bar.
ZH: 像这根阴线，或者这根阴线
11:27 - 11:31
EN: Those are two reasonable locations for the bears to sell again.
ZH: 这是空头再次做空的两个合理的入场点
11:32 - 11:37
EN: If you sold for any reason, here or below here, and you conclude correctly
ZH: 如果你做空了，比如在这里，或者在这里，
11:37 - 11:41
EN: that the market’s Always In Short, and then the market tries to reverse
ZH: 而且你正确地押注了市场处于单边下跌，
11:41 - 11:46
EN: with a minor reversal, if you get out – here’s another second entry reversal;
ZH: 假设在市场尝试反转上涨的时候，你提前离场了—— 这里是第2次反转上涨（注：多头的第2做多入场点）
11:46 - 11:50
EN: first entry, second entry – you have to sell again below a bear bar,
ZH: 第1次，第2次——你必须在阴线下方再次卖出做空
11:50 - 11:52
EN: especially a second entry.
ZH: 尤其是第2做空入场点
11:52 - 11:56
EN: Here’s a first entry, here’s a second entry, and this one has a bear bar.
ZH: 这里是第1入场点，这里是第2入场点，而且有阴线作为信号K
11:56 - 11:57
EN: This is where the bears sell again,
ZH: 这是空头可以再次卖出做空的地方
11:57 - 12:01
EN: and this is where the bulls who bought give up.
ZH: 而之前买入做反转的多头，也会在这里放弃
12:01 - 12:04
EN: They might buy above here, maybe they buy above here,
ZH: 他们可能在它的上方买入，在它的上方买入
12:04 - 12:08
EN: but when they see the bear trend resuming down a second time,
ZH: 当这些多头看到下降趋势第2次恢复下跌时，他们就会离场
12:08 - 12:12
EN: they exit, and that usually is a profitable trade for the bears.
ZH: 因为对于空头来说，这是非常好的入场点，赚钱的概率很大
12:12 - 12:14
EN: A Low 2 short in a bear trend.
ZH: 下降趋势中的低2做空入场点
12:16 - 12:20
EN: This is an impressive breakout on the part of the bears.
ZH: 空头制造了强势的突破
12:20 - 12:22
EN: You have 7 bars without a bull body.
ZH: 连续7根K线，都不是阳线
12:22 - 12:25
EN: You have 4 bear bars with decent size bear bodies,
ZH: 其中4根阴线的体积比较大
12:25 - 12:32
EN: and it’s the strongest series of bear bars occurring
ZH: 这是最强势的一系列阴线—— 而此时下降趋势已经持续了超过20根K线，从这里开始
12:28 - 12:32
EN: at least 20 bars into the trend, at least since here.
ZH: 这是最强势的一系列阴线—— 而此时下降趋势已经持续了超过20根K线，从这里开始
12:32 - 12:37
EN: And when you have the strongest bear breakout occurring late in a bear trend,
ZH: 当你在下降趋势后期看到了最强的空头突破，
12:37 - 12:41
EN: it’s more likely an exhaustive move and the bears need to take a break.
ZH: 它更有可能是竭尽型的抛售高潮，空头需要休息
12:41 - 12:43
EN: They’ll buy back their shorts and look to sell again later.
ZH: 他们会买入止盈，过一段时间再考虑是否再次入场做空
12:43 - 12:53
EN: The top of that Sell Climax is a magnet, and therefore traders know
ZH: 抛售高潮的起跌点是一个磁铁 （注：磁铁，即目标位） 所以此时交易者知道，多头会尝试去测试这个起跌点
12:49 - 12:53
EN: that at this point the market’s probably going to try to test this high.
ZH: 所以此时交易者知道，多头会尝试去测试这个起跌点
12:53 - 12:59
EN: It probably will close the gap between these lows and these highs, which it did.
ZH: 尝试测试这些低点，把缺口补掉——确实补掉了
13:00 - 13:04
EN: Probably we’ll get to this high, and the bulls who bought for a scalp,
ZH: 然后去测试这个起跌点，所以会有多头买入，
13:04 - 13:10
EN: betting on a minor reversal, will take profits, and the experienced bears
ZH: 押注会有反弹，在这里止盈、赚快钱； 而有经验的空头会再次入场做空
13:09 - 13:13
EN: will sell again, arguing that even though it might be Always In Long here,
ZH: 押注会有反弹，在这里止盈、赚快钱； 而有经验的空头会再次入场做空 尽管这里可能短暂地处于单边上涨
13:13 - 13:17
EN: it’s still in a Broad Bear Channel unless it gets above a major Lower High.
ZH: 但市场仍然是宽下降通道，除非重要的高点被突破
13:17 - 13:19
EN: The same thing here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
13:20 - 13:24
EN: We have 4 consecutive bull bars, 2 with good bodies closing on their highs.
ZH: 有连续4根阳线，其中两根体积较大、收在最高
13:24 - 13:28
EN: The market might be Always In Long, but the reversal is minor
ZH: 市场也许暂时处于单边上涨，但这只是小反转
13:28 - 13:32
EN: because it’s coming after a 10 or 11 bar very Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 因为左边是10根K线的窄下降通道
13:35 - 13:37
EN: Here, Always In Long.
ZH: 这里，单边上涨
13:37 - 13:40
EN: Here, probably Always In Long.
ZH: 这里，可能是单边上涨
13:40 - 13:44
EN: But unless you’re starting to form a series of Higher Lows and Higher Highs,
ZH: 但除非多头开始制造出一系列抬高的低点和高点，
13:44 - 13:47
EN: this Always In Long and this Always In Long
ZH: 否则，这种单边上涨，这种单边上涨
13:47 - 13:55
EN: can still be in a Broad Bear Channel, and therefore bears will look
ZH: 可能都只是宽下降通道中的上涨而已 所以空头会在反转下跌时卖出做空——尤其会在阴线的下方入场
13:52 - 13:55
EN: to sell the reversal back down – especially below a bear bar.
ZH: 所以空头会在反转下跌时卖出做空——尤其会在阴线的下方入场
14:00 - 14:02
EN: Here we are at the end of the day.
ZH: 这里，即将收盘
14:02 - 14:05
EN: We have a bull bar closing on its high.
ZH: 有一个收在最高的阳线
14:05 - 14:09
EN: Most bears would exit on a stop above the high of that bull bar,
ZH: 大多数空头会在那个阳线的高点上方挂突破买单，止盈离场
14:10 - 14:14
EN: and if they did not, they would exit a few seconds before the end of the day.
ZH: 或者，他们会在收盘前的前几秒离场
Slide 006
Time: 14:20
Bilingual Transcript
14:22 - 14:27
EN: A lot of traders never worry about picking an exact top or an exact bottom.
ZH: 很多交易者不纠结是否能够精准的找到顶部或底部
14:27 - 14:30
EN: They use wide stops and they scale in.
ZH: 他们使用宽止损，并逐步加仓
14:36 - 14:38
EN: Pretty good Selling Pressure.
ZH: 相当不错的卖压
14:38 - 14:39
EN: A Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 窄下降通道
14:39 - 14:43
EN: 11 bars down, 3 consecutive bear bars closing near their lows.
ZH: 下跌了11根K线，连续3根阴线收在最低
14:43 - 14:48
EN: Again, Sell Climax, so the top of the Sell Climax is a target.
ZH: 它也是抛售高潮，所以起跌点是反弹的目标
14:48 - 14:51
EN: Think about what’s going on here.
ZH: 想一想，在这里发生了什么？
14:51 - 14:56
EN: We have a gap up (very good for the bulls), and then an 11-bar bear channel
ZH: 跳空高开（对多头非常有利）， 然后是11根K线的下降通道
14:56 - 14:59
EN: with several bear bars closing on their lows (good for the bears).
ZH: 其中有几根阴线收在最低（对空头有利）
14:59 - 15:01
EN: We have big up, big down.
ZH: 所以是大涨、大跌
15:01 - 15:05
EN: That creates big confusion, and we’re probably going to go sideways for a while.
ZH: 这造成了大的困惑，大概率会横盘一段时间
15:05 - 15:08
EN: You can argue that we were sideways all the way to here.
ZH: 你可以说一直横盘到这里
15:08 - 15:13
EN: Also, for the bulls, this is about a 50% pullback from this gap up,
ZH: 此外，对于多头来说，这是缺口的50%回调
15:13 - 15:16
EN: and it’s a breakout test of this prior high.
ZH: 也是突破前期高点之后的突破回测
15:16 - 15:18
EN: So it’s at a support level.
ZH: 所以它是一个支撑位
15:18 - 15:20
EN: Traders expect a bounce.
ZH: 交易者预期会有反弹
15:20 - 15:24
EN: However, after big up, big down, they expect big confusion,
ZH: 然而，在大涨、大跌之后，会造成大的困惑
15:24 - 15:27
EN: which means a Trading Range, and that means they expect
ZH: 也就是震荡区间的特征
15:27 - 15:31
EN: the first rally to not lead to a bull trend.
ZH: 所以交易者预期第1次反弹不会形成上涨趋势
15:31 - 15:34
EN: They expect it to be sold and for the market to test back down.
ZH: 有空头会逢高做空，制造第2段下跌
15:35 - 15:39
EN: What they don’t know is, will it form a Double Bottom and the bull trend
ZH: 但他们不知道的是，到底是形成双底，
15:39 - 15:45
EN: will resume from a Double Bottom bull flag – bull trend, Double Bottom,
ZH: 然后上涨趋势恢复——上涨趋势，双底，恢复上涨——
15:44 - 15:52
EN: and a resumption up – or, will this Lower High be the start of a bear trend
ZH: 然后上涨趋势恢复——上涨趋势，双底，恢复上涨—— 还是会变成下降趋势（高点降低的大反转）？
15:49 - 15:52
EN: (a Lower High Major Trend Reversal)?
ZH: 还是会变成下降趋势（高点降低的大反转）？
15:54 - 15:56
EN: What they do know is, big up, big down,
ZH: 他们只知道，大涨、大跌、大的困惑，
15:56 - 16:01
EN: big confusion, and therefore probably a Trading Range for 20 or more bars.
ZH: 所以大概率会有一个震荡区间，持续20根K线，甚至更久
16:01 - 16:05
EN: And that means that any rally will be a bull leg in a Trading Range,
ZH: 也就是说，任何反弹都只是震荡区间内的上涨波段
16:05 - 16:08
EN: and it should be followed by a bear leg in the range.
ZH: 然后会是震荡区间内的下跌波段
16:09 - 16:13
EN: But it might be a Lower High Major Trend Reversal leading to a bear trend.
ZH: 但它可能是高点降低的大反转，变成下降趋势
16:13 - 16:15
EN: In either case, traders are going to look to sell rallies.
ZH: 无论是哪种情况，空头都会在反弹时卖出做空
16:16 - 16:22
EN: Very Tight Channel like this, probably the first reversal down
ZH: 上涨通道很窄，所以第1次下跌大概率是小反转， 下方会有多头买入
16:20 - 16:22
EN: will be minor, and bulls will buy it.
ZH: 上涨通道很窄，所以第1次下跌大概率是小反转， 下方会有多头买入
16:22 - 16:23
EN: And they did try to buy it.
ZH: 确实有人尝试买入
16:23 - 16:26
EN: They bought it here, they bought it here, they bought it here
ZH: 他们在这里买入，在这里买入，在这里买入
16:26 - 16:30
EN: - but not enough bought it to create the Double Bottom,
ZH: ——但买盘不够多，无法形成双底
16:30 - 16:33
EN: and instead we ended up trending down.
ZH: 最终向下跌破了
16:38 - 16:41
EN: We have 3 consecutive bear bars, 2 with big bodies,
ZH: 有3根连续的阴线，其中两根体积很大
16:41 - 16:44
EN: and all 3 closing on their lows.
ZH: 3根阴线都收在最低
16:44 - 16:45
EN: This is a bear breakout.
ZH: 这是空头突破
16:45 - 16:49
EN: Even though we reversed up to above the top of that bear breakout,
ZH: 即使反弹超过了它的起跌点，
16:49 - 16:53
EN: it’s still strong enough to make the market Always In Short.
ZH: 这段下跌足够强势，足以让市场处于下降趋势
16:53 - 16:56
EN: Some bulls will see this as Always In Long; however,
ZH: 一些多头认为市场已经处于单边上涨
16:56 - 16:59
EN: this is a strong enough selloff to make traders believe it’s Always In Long,
ZH: 然而左边的抛售非常剧烈，更多人愿意做空，而不是做多
16:59 - 17:03
EN: and the first reversal up will probably form a Lower High
ZH: 第1次上涨大概率无法超过之前的高点（高点降低）
17:03 - 17:09
EN: and we’ll probably come back down to test this close,
ZH: 然后再次下跌，在10~20根K线之内， 至少去测试前期最低的这个收盘价
17:05 - 17:09
EN: at a minimum, at some point within 10 or 20 bars.
ZH: 然后再次下跌，在10~20根K线之内， 至少去测试前期最低的这个收盘价
17:10 - 17:15
EN: If a trader sold the absolute worst price, like this close,
ZH: 即使有人不幸正好在最低的价格——比如它的收盘价， 卖出做空了
17:15 - 17:18
EN: if he manages his trade well, he’ll still make money.
ZH: 如果他正确地管理这笔交易，仍然能够赚钱
17:18 - 17:22
EN: He knows the channel down is tight and therefore the first reversal up
ZH: 他知道下跌通道很窄，所以第1次上涨大概率只是小反弹
17:22 - 17:26
EN: is probably minor and that the market will probably test back down to this area.
ZH: 并且会有第2段下跌，回测这个区域
17:26 - 17:32
EN: So even if he sells this close and uses a stop above the top of the selloff,
ZH: 所以，就算他在最低的收盘价卖出做空， 然后把止损放在起跌点的上方
17:32 - 17:38
EN: he can make money if he sells more higher,
ZH: 他可以逢高加仓做空——比如在50%反弹， 或者反转下跌时卖出更多
17:35 - 17:38
EN: like at a 50% pullback or on a reversal down.
ZH: 他可以逢高加仓做空——比如在50%反弹， 或者反转下跌时卖出更多
17:39 - 17:43
EN: And then he can exit part or all at his original price.
ZH: 然后他可以在初始的入场价格止盈部分或全部仓位
17:43 - 17:46
EN: He gets out breakeven for his entry down here,
ZH: 它的初始仓位打平，
17:47 - 17:50
EN: and he exits with a profit if he sold more here.
ZH: 上方加仓的部分可以赚钱
17:51 - 17:52
EN: That’s for a scalper.
ZH: 这是剥头皮的做法
17:52 - 17:57
EN: A swing trader would hold until there’s a clear reason to buy again.
ZH: 而波段交易者会一直持有，直到下降趋势不再成立
18:06 - 18:12
EN: Strong bull trend, strong bull breakout, but a 1 bar Final Flag, a pause bar.
ZH: 强上涨趋势，强势的多头突破， 但这根K线可能是末端牛旗，它是暂停K线
18:12 - 18:15
EN: You could argue Parabolic Wedge – one, two, three.
ZH: 你可以把它看作抛物线楔形——1，2，3
18:15 - 18:17
EN: A small Double Top.
ZH: 或者看作小双顶
18:17 - 18:20
EN: Possibly a 2nd Leg Trap.
ZH: 也许是第2段陷阱
18:20 - 18:23
EN: This looks like a bull leg in a Trading Range,
ZH: 它看起来像是震荡区间内的上涨波段
18:23 - 18:26
EN: and then suddenly we get an exceptionally strong bull leg.
ZH: 然后突然加速突破，看起来异常强势
18:33 - 18:36
EN: Strong bull breakout, and it failed.
ZH: 强势的多头突破，但失败了
Slide 007
Time: 18:35
Bilingual Transcript
18:37 - 18:44
EN: I talk more about this in the videos on Trading Failed Breakouts
ZH: 在高潮反转（42A
C）和开盘反转（48AF）的课程中， 我更加详细地讲解了这一部分
18:40 - 18:44
EN: and Climactic Reversals, and in the videos on Trading the Open.
ZH: 在高潮反转（42A
C）和开盘反转（48AF）的课程中， 我更加详细地讲解了这一部分
18:44 - 18:46
EN: Remember, this is early in the day.
ZH: 注意，这是早盘
18:46 - 18:47
EN: The day is just starting.
ZH: 交易才刚刚开始
18:47 - 18:49
EN: We have a very strong breakout on the open.
ZH: 这个突破非常强势
18:50 - 18:55
EN: 50% of the time if you get a strong breakout up or down on the open,
ZH: 在开盘的时候，如果看到强势的突破，不管是向上还是向下
18:55 - 18:58
EN: it’s the wrong way and it will reverse.
ZH: 50%的时候，第1个方向是错误的，会反转
18:59 - 19:04
EN: As strong as this is, do not assume that it’s the start of a bull trend.
ZH: 尽管它很强势，但不要轻易假设这就是上涨趋势的开始
19:04 - 19:09
EN: 50/50 chance it is, 50/50 chance it’ll be an opening reversal,
ZH: 50%的概率确实是，但50%的概率会反转
19:09 - 19:12
EN: rally to some resistance level – we don’t see any right here
ZH: 上涨到某个阻力位——尽管这里并看不到左边的阻力
19:12 - 19:16
EN: - and then an early high of the day, leading to a bear trend.
ZH: 然后变成当天的最高点，开始进入下降趋势
19:19 - 19:22
EN: For the bears, they’re going to take a chance.
ZH: 对于空头而言，他们会押注反转
19:22 - 19:24
EN: They see pretty good reversal down here.
ZH: 空头看到这里有相当不错的反转下跌
19:24 - 19:30
EN: We have 5 consecutive bear bars here,
ZH: 连续5根阴线，它的体积很大，后续还有跟随
19:27 - 19:30
EN: a decent size bear bar here, good follow-through here.
ZH: 连续5根阴线，它的体积很大，后续还有跟随
19:31 - 19:35
EN: Traders who see this see big up and pretty big down,
ZH: 此时交易者看到了大涨、大跌
19:35 - 19:37
EN: and therefore they expect a Trading Range.
ZH: 所以他们预期市场进入震荡区间
19:37 - 19:43
EN: That means that traders will sell any rally after this much of a reversal down.
ZH: 也就是说，在下跌了这么多之后， 空头会在反弹的时候逢高做空
19:43 - 19:48
EN: Some traders will sell for a scalp; others will take a chance
ZH: 其中一些人剥头皮、赚快钱； 一些人押注这是高点降低的大反转
19:46 - 19:54
EN: that it’s a Lower High Major Trend Reversal and that this is simply a bull trap
ZH: 其中一些人剥头皮、赚快钱； 一些人押注这是高点降低的大反转 押注早盘的上涨是多头陷阱， 押注从这里开始，今天会变成下降趋势日
19:50 - 19:54
EN: on the open and that this is the start of a bear trend day.
ZH: 押注早盘的上涨是多头陷阱， 押注从这里开始，今天会变成下降趋势日
19:54 - 19:57
EN: So it’s reasonable to short, especially below a bear bar.
ZH: 所以卖出做空是合理的，尤其是在阴线下方卖出
20:01 - 20:03
EN: You can call it a Wedge if you’d like.
ZH: 你可以把它看作是楔形（熊旗）
20:03 - 20:08
EN: One push up, pause, second push up, pause, and third or fourth push up,
ZH: 1，暂停；2，暂停；3，或者4
20:08 - 20:15
EN: and now we have a Micro Double Top, and it’s a breakout test
ZH: 这里是一个小双顶， 也是跌破这些低点之后的突破回测
20:12 - 20:15
EN: of the bears who sold below here or here.
ZH: 这里是一个小双顶， 也是跌破这些低点之后的突破回测
20:16 - 20:19
EN: Possible Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 有高点降低的大反转机会
20:19 - 20:22
EN: 40% chance traders will get a swing down.
ZH: 40%的概率空头可以赚到一个下跌的波段
20:23 - 20:27
EN: In general, you could put a stop here because of the Micro Double Top,
ZH: 通常，你可以把止损放在小双顶的上方，风险很小
20:27 - 20:31
EN: but a lot of traders would keep their stop up here at the top of the bear leg,
ZH: 但很多空头会把止损放在整个下跌波段的起跌点上方
20:31 - 20:33
EN: just in case we go up a little bit higher.
ZH: 以防还有一些反弹
20:37 - 20:41
EN: Had you sold below the low of this bar, your Initial Risk
ZH: 如果你在这根K线的低点下方卖出做空了
20:41 - 20:46
EN: if you put the stop here would be from your entry price here to there.
ZH: 然后把止损放在这里， 你的初始风险就是从入场点到止损的这段距离
20:46 - 20:51
EN: So it would be that height, and this would be two times your Initial Risk.
ZH: 风险就是这个矩形的高度，两倍的初始风险在这里
20:51 - 20:57
EN: If you were to sell here and exit here, you would be getting out
ZH: 在这里卖出做空，在这里止盈离场
20:57 - 21:02
EN: with two times your Initial Risk, and Initial Risk is always bigger
ZH: 你就获得了两倍于初始风险的利润 而初始风险总是大于等于实际风险，
21:01 - 21:07
EN: than Actual Risk, and therefore you’d be getting out
ZH: 而初始风险总是大于等于实际风险， 所以你的利润也至少是实际风险的两倍， 这笔交易在数学上是合理的
21:03 - 21:07
EN: with at least two times Actual Risk and the math would be okay.
ZH: 所以你的利润也至少是实际风险的两倍， 这笔交易在数学上是合理的
21:07 - 21:11
EN: So it would be okay to sell here and take profits here.
ZH: 所以在这里卖出，在这里止盈，是合理的
21:11 - 21:14
EN: That would be the minimum mathematical thing to do.
ZH: 满足了数学期望的最低要求
21:20 - 21:24
EN: When the Initial Risk is small, as it is here – you sell below here;
ZH: 如果初始风险很小，比如这里——你在它的下方卖出，
21:24 - 21:27
EN: if you put the stop here, your Initial Risk is small
ZH: 止损放在这里，你的初始风险很小
21:27 - 21:33
EN: - it’s usually good to go for a profit that is at least twice your Initial Risk.
ZH: 通常来说，追求至少两倍于初始风险的利润是好的选择
21:34 - 21:41
EN: Mathematically, all you have to do is go for a target
ZH: 从数学的角度触发，你只需要追求两倍于实际风险的利润， 让数学期望大于0
21:37 - 21:41
EN: that is twice your Actual Risk to have a positive Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 从数学的角度触发，你只需要追求两倍于实际风险的利润， 让数学期望大于0
21:41 - 21:50
EN: However, if the Actual Risk is tiny, going for a reward
ZH: 然而，如果实际风险很小，那么就算是两倍，也不是最好的选择
21:47 - 21:50
EN: that small is probably not the best decision.
ZH: 然而，如果实际风险很小，那么就算是两倍，也不是最好的选择
21:50 - 21:55
EN: I always make the analogy to working for a minimum wage.
ZH: 我总是用最低工资来比喻
21:55 - 21:57
EN: Is it acceptable? Sure.
ZH: 最低工资合法吗？合法
21:57 - 22:00
EN: But is it ideal? Should that be your goal? No.
ZH: 你的目标就是赚最低工资？应该不是吧
22:00 - 22:02
EN: And the same is true with trading.
ZH: 在交易中也是一样
22:02 - 22:05
EN: There are things that mathematically make sense;
ZH: 有些做法在数学上是合理的
22:05 - 22:10
EN: however, if they’re minimums, they’re not necessarily the best.
ZH: 然而，只是满足了最低目标，不代表就是最好的选择
22:14 - 22:20
EN: Whenever there’s a strong Buy Climax like this, there’s a big magnet
ZH: 每当出现这么剧烈的抢购高潮， 抢购高潮的起涨点，还有上涨波段的起涨点
22:18 - 22:21
EN: at the bottom of the Buy Climax and the bottom of the bull leg,
ZH: 每当出现这么剧烈的抢购高潮， 抢购高潮的起涨点，还有上涨波段的起涨点 都是非常强的磁铁（目标位）
22:21 - 22:26
EN: and therefore some traders who take this short will hold looking
ZH: 因此，一些空头会继续持有，
22:26 - 22:28
EN: to take partial profits at the bottom of the Buy Climax.
ZH: 希望可以在抢购高潮的起涨点止盈至少部分利润
22:32 - 22:34
EN: Also, we have a developing Trading Range.
ZH: 这个震荡区间还在持续
22:34 - 22:36
EN: If you want, you can call it a Double Top.
ZH: 你可以把它看作双顶（熊旗）
22:36 - 22:38
EN: You can call it a Wedge rally.
ZH: 也可以说是楔形熊旗
22:39 - 22:43
EN: Swing traders should always be looking for swing targets.
ZH: 波段交易者的目标都是比较远的
22:43 - 22:48
EN: And usually when you take the trade, the targets seem unrealistic
ZH: 通常当你开仓的时候，那个目标看似不切实际
22:48 - 22:55
EN: and what you’re saying is, oh, maybe I only have a 40% chance
ZH: 你可能会想：“额，尽管目标合理，但是只有40%的概率能达到”
22:52 - 22:55
EN: of reaching those reasonable targets.
ZH: 你可能会想：“额，尽管目标合理，但是只有40%的概率能达到”
22:55 - 23:00
EN: And that’s okay, because the targets usually are many times greater
ZH: 不用担心，因为潜在利润是风险的很多倍
23:00 - 23:04
EN: than your risk, and if you win only 40% of the time, you will make money.
ZH: 即使概率只有40%，你仍然可以赚钱
23:05 - 23:07
EN: You can look at this as a Wedge.
ZH: 可以把它看作楔形熊旗
23:07 - 23:11
EN: If we get a bear breakout below the Wedge,
ZH: 如果向下跌破，空头期待继续下跌到MM目标位
23:09 - 23:11
EN: maybe we’ll fall for a Measured Move down.
ZH: 如果向下跌破，空头期待继续下跌到MM目标位
23:11 - 23:13
EN: You can look at it as a Double Top.
ZH: 把它看作双顶也是一样的
23:13 - 23:15
EN: Here’s the neckline, here’s the Measured Move down.
ZH: 这里是颈线，MM目标位在这里
23:15 - 23:17
EN: You could look at it as simply a Trading Range,
ZH: 或者，直接把它看作震荡区间
23:17 - 23:20
EN: and if we get the breakout, maybe we’ll fall for the Measured Move down.
ZH: 如果向下跌破，大概率会跌到MM目标位
23:20 - 23:27
EN: If we do get to this Measured Move, it’s very close
ZH: 如果真的跌到了这个MM目标位， 它离抢购高潮的起涨点很近，那也是一个磁铁
23:23 - 23:27
EN: to the bottom of this Buy Climax, which is also a magnet.
ZH: 如果真的跌到了这个MM目标位， 它离抢购高潮的起涨点很近，那也是一个磁铁
23:27 - 23:31
EN: We’ll probably get down here as well, and therefore you might,
ZH: 很可能会继续下跌到这里，
23:31 - 23:34
EN: instead of taking profits at the Measured Move target,
ZH: 所以有的空头不会在MM目标位止盈
23:34 - 23:38
EN: hold for a test of the bottom of the Buy Climax.
ZH: 而是继续持有，看看是否会测试抢购高潮的起涨点
23:42 - 23:46
EN: The market often makes a two-legged move – a Leg 1, pullback,
ZH: 市场经常进行两段式移动——第1段，反弹，
23:46 - 23:51
EN: Leg 2 Measured Move – and it comes out here, around that Measured Move target.
ZH: 第2段MM目标位——在这里，和之前讲的MM目标位很近
23:51 - 23:55
EN: So it looks like some bears will be taking profits around here.
ZH: 所以你知道会有一些空头在这个区域止盈
23:59 - 24:00
EN: And you can see what happened.
ZH: 看接下来的走势
Slide 008
Time: 24:00
Bilingual Transcript
24:00 - 24:04
EN: When it got down to the Measured Move target, it reversed up.
ZH: 当价格跌到MM目标位之后，就反转上涨
24:04 - 24:08
EN: It also fell a little bit more than the Leg 1, Leg 2 target.
ZH: 跌幅大于第1段 = 第2段的MM目标位
24:08 - 24:10
EN: It never reached down here.
ZH: 但没有能够跌到起涨点
24:13 - 24:16
EN: If you did not exit partially with a limit order here,
ZH: 如果你没有在这里挂限价买单，止盈至少一部分仓位
24:16 - 24:20
EN: if you did not exit partially at two times your Initial Risk,
ZH: 如果你没有在两倍初始风险的地方离场
24:20 - 24:23
EN: you have to be thinking about exiting above this bull bar.
ZH: 那么你必须考虑，在这根阳线的上方离场
24:23 - 24:28
EN: You have a Micro Double Bottom, a bull bar closing on its high,
ZH: 这里有一个小双底，然后大阳线守在最高
24:28 - 24:33
EN: a failure to get all the way down to the bottom of the Buy Climax
ZH: 没有能够完全跌到抢购高潮的起涨点
24:33 - 24:35
EN: - remember, the bulls are hoping today is a bull trend day.
ZH: ——要知道，多头本来希望今天是上涨趋势日
24:36 - 24:40
EN: When they see this and then this, they start thinking, okay,
ZH: 当他们看到这样、这样下跌，他们开始意识到：
24:40 - 24:43
EN: it’s probably not going to be a bull trend day,
ZH: “好吧，今天大概率不会是上涨趋势日了”
24:43 - 24:47
EN: but maybe it can be a Trading Range day – which means a very deep pullback
ZH: 但仍然有可能是在震荡区间日—— 也就是说，有非常深的回调，
24:47 - 24:50
EN: and then a test back up near the high of the day.
ZH: 然后回测早盘的高点附近
24:50 - 24:52
EN: And therefore, bulls are looking to buy,
ZH: 因此，多头想要买入
24:53 - 24:59
EN: and they especially want to avoid the market falling
ZH: 而且他们特别想阻止空头跌破抢购高潮的起涨点
24:56 - 24:59
EN: below the bottom of that Buy Climax because if it does,
ZH: 而且他们特别想阻止空头跌破抢购高潮的起涨点
24:59 - 25:03
EN: then the bears have a reasonable chance at a continued trend down.
ZH: 如果真的被跌破了，空头就有很大的概率可以延续下降趋势
25:05 - 25:11
EN: If you see the reversal up with a bull bar closing on its high, most bears,
ZH: 看到反转上涨，大阳线收在最高，
25:11 - 25:14
EN: if they did not get out here, will get out there
ZH: 之前没有离场的空头，现在会全部离场
25:14 - 25:17
EN: - even if they were hoping to get out here or here.
ZH: ——尽管他们希望市场可以跌到这里或这里
25:17 - 25:23
EN: They know there’s too much risk that this could be
ZH: 因为他们知道，如果这是震荡区间日中的第2段陷阱， 大幅反弹造成利润回撤的风险就非常大
25:20 - 25:23
EN: a 2nd Leg Trap in a Trading Range day.
ZH: 因为他们知道，如果这是震荡区间日中的第2段陷阱， 大幅反弹造成利润回撤的风险就非常大
25:23 - 25:26
EN: First leg down, and then an even stronger second leg down,
ZH: 第1段下跌，然后是更强的第2段下跌
25:27 - 25:29
EN: and then we’re trying to reverse up.
ZH: 现在市场尝试反转上涨
25:29 - 25:31
EN: So for the bulls, it’s a High 2 bull flag.
ZH: 对于多头而言，这是高2牛旗
25:31 - 25:35
EN: Leg 1, pullback, Leg 2, and a Higher Low.
ZH: 第1段，反弹，第2段，而且仍然高于这个低点
25:36 - 25:40
EN: So buying back shorts above this bar makes sense.
ZH: 所以空头在这根大阳线的上方离场是合理的
25:40 - 25:44
EN: The bulls still are above the bottom of the Buy Climax,
ZH: 现在价格仍然高于抢购高潮的起涨点
25:44 - 25:48
EN: and it’s possible that this is the start of a big bull trend.
ZH: 也许可能是一个大上涨趋势的开始
25:48 - 25:51
EN: More likely big up, big down, big confusion,
ZH: 但更有可能是大涨、大跌、大的困惑
25:51 - 25:53
EN: and the day will end up as a Trading Range,
ZH: 然后今天就是一个大的震荡区间
25:53 - 25:57
EN: and whatever rally we get will be a bull leg in that Trading Range.
ZH: 接下来的任何上涨都只是震荡区间内的上涨波段
25:57 - 26:01
EN: Also, the bear trend might resume.
ZH: 此外，下降趋势有可能恢复—— 尽管今天没有，但存在这样的可能性
25:59 - 26:01
EN: It did not, but it might.
ZH: 此外，下降趋势有可能恢复—— 尽管今天没有，但存在这样的可能性
26:06 - 26:12
EN: Strong rally and reversal down, but did not get below the bottom
ZH: 大涨、大跌，但没有跌破起涨点
26:12 - 26:16
EN: of the bull breakout, and therefore it could simply be a deep pullback.
ZH: 所以有可能只是深度回调
26:16 - 26:20
EN: Instead of a bear trend, we could end up in a Trading Range.
ZH: 所以不一定是下降趋势，也可能变成震荡区间日
26:20 - 26:24
EN: At this point traders are hoping for a bull trend, and they’re confident
ZH: 在这个时候，多头期待今天是上涨趋势日， 他们很有信心
26:24 - 26:28
EN: that the first reversal down to here or here probably will be bought.
ZH: 知道第1次下跌，不管回调有多深，都会有人逢低买入
26:31 - 26:35
EN: Always reasonable to take half off at two times Initial Risk.
ZH: 在两倍初始风险的地方止盈一半，永远都是合理的做法
26:36 - 26:40
EN: Always reasonable to take part or all off at Measured Move targets.
ZH: 在MM目标位止盈部分或全部仓位，永远都是合理的做法
26:40 - 26:47
EN: Always reasonable to take part or all off at the bottom of the Buy Climax
ZH: 在抢购高潮的起涨点，或者在上涨波段的起涨点， 止盈部分或全部仓位，永远都是合理的做法
26:45 - 26:47
EN: or the bottom of the strong bull leg.
ZH: 在抢购高潮的起涨点，或者在上涨波段的起涨点， 止盈部分或全部仓位，永远都是合理的做法
26:47 - 26:54
EN: But if it gets to any of the reasonable targets
ZH: 但如果价格达到了某个合理的目标之后 开始强势地反转上涨，最好要离场保护利润
26:50 - 26:54
EN: and starts to reverse up strongly, it’s usually good to exit
ZH: 但如果价格达到了某个合理的目标之后 开始强势地反转上涨，最好要离场保护利润
26:54 - 26:58
EN: and then look to sell again higher if you’re still interested in selling.
ZH: 如果你仍然想要做空，可以等待逢高卖出的机会
27:03 - 27:09
EN: Some traders would have a limit order to take profits
ZH: 一些空头会在MM目标位挂限价买单， 至少止盈一部分
27:06 - 27:09
EN: at the Measured Move, or at least partial profits there.
ZH: 一些空头会在MM目标位挂限价买单， 至少止盈一部分
27:09 - 27:10
EN: You can see a lot of traders did that.
ZH: 可以看到，很多空头都这么做了
27:10 - 27:12
EN: That’s what created this tail.
ZH: 所以形成了这个下影线
27:12 - 27:16
EN: And then once the traders saw this tail, a lot of traders said,
ZH: 一旦其它空头看到了这个下影线，他们就会想：
27:16 - 27:22
EN: “Uh oh, maybe I should’ve taken profits at that Measured Move target.
ZH: “哎呀，我也应该在MM目标位止盈的； 现在只好在更高的价格买入止盈了。”
27:20 - 27:22
EN: I’m going to place my order a little bit higher.”
ZH: “哎呀，我也应该在MM目标位止盈的； 现在只好在更高的价格买入止盈了。”
27:23 - 27:31
EN: The traders who did not exit here, a lot of them placed an order
ZH: 所以那些没有直接离场的空头也开始买入止盈， 这就是反弹形成的原因之一
27:27 - 27:31
EN: a little bit higher to take their profits, and that’s what caused that.
ZH: 所以那些没有直接离场的空头也开始买入止盈， 这就是反弹形成的原因之一
27:31 - 27:36
EN: The bulls also saw that they were able to do this, and they got confidence
ZH: 多头看到空头在止盈离场，
27:36 - 27:40
EN: that maybe we’ll stay above the Buy Climax low,
ZH: 于是变得更有信心——相信市场不会跌破抢购高潮的起涨点
27:40 - 27:44
EN: and they decided to buy more aggressively after they saw this reversal up.
ZH: 所以在看到反转的信号之后，他们会更积极地买入做多
27:44 - 27:50
EN: They bought below this bear bar, and enough traders bought
ZH: 他们在这根阴线下方挂限价买单， 现在有足够多的交易者在买入——多空双方都在买入
27:49 - 27:54
EN: - both bulls and bears; bears bought to buy back shorts,
ZH: 他们在这根阴线下方挂限价买单， 现在有足够多的交易者在买入——多空双方都在买入 空头买入止盈，多头买入押注上涨波段
27:52 - 27:54
EN: bulls bought hoping for a swing up
ZH: 空头买入止盈，多头买入押注上涨波段
27:54 - 27:58
EN: - and enough traders bought so that we did get a reversal.
ZH: 买入的人足够多，所以造成了反转上涨
28:04 - 28:07
EN: For the bulls, it’s still above the bottom of the Buy Climax,
ZH: 对于多头来说，价格仍然维持在抢购高潮的起涨点上方
28:07 - 28:11
EN: and therefore a Higher Low, and what they hope is a bull trend.
ZH: 所以低点仍然在抬高，上涨趋势的前提没有失败
28:11 - 28:15
EN: But after they got big down, Trading Range much more likely.
ZH: 但在大涨、大跌之后，更有可能会进入震荡区间
28:15 - 28:20
EN: Bear leg in a Trading Range usually means you’re going
ZH: 如果真的是震荡区间，那么在下跌波段之后， 也会有上涨的波段
28:18 - 28:20
EN: to get a bull leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 如果真的是震荡区间，那么在下跌波段之后， 也会有上涨的波段
28:20 - 28:23
EN: So it’s reasonable to buy to go long.
ZH: 所以买入做多是合理的
28:27 - 28:29
EN: We have a bull trend and then a Trading Range.
ZH: 上涨趋势，然后震荡区间
28:29 - 28:31
EN: We have a bull breakout above the range.
ZH: 向上突破了
28:31 - 28:35
EN: If you want, you can call it a Higher High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 可以说它是高点抬高的大反转
28:35 - 28:38
EN: Then we got a reversal down, but then, again, another reversal up.
ZH: 反转下跌，紧接着又反转上涨
28:38 - 28:42
EN: This entire 50 bars is in a Trading Range,
ZH: 过去50根K线其实是一个大的震荡区间
Slide 009
Time: 28:40
Bilingual Transcript
28:42 - 28:46
EN: and it’s getting many reversals, and most reversals fail.
ZH: 其中有很多反转，但都不会走太远
28:47 - 28:50
EN: This top failed, this top failed, this one failed,
ZH: 反转失败，反转失败，反转失败，
28:50 - 28:53
EN: this one failed, and now we’re trying to resume up.
ZH: 这个也失败了，现在多头尝试恢复上涨趋势
28:53 - 28:57
EN: We had a Double Bottom, another Double Bottom, did not go very far.
ZH: 这里有一个双底，这里也是，没有涨很多
28:57 - 29:00
EN: We’re trying to reverse up here, did not go very far.
ZH: 这里也尝试上涨，没有走很远
29:00 - 29:05
EN: In a Trading Range, most breakout attempts fail, and you get repeated reversals.
ZH: 在震荡区间里，大多数突破的尝试会失败，然后来回反转
29:12 - 29:14
EN: There are different ways to look at this.
ZH: 这里可以看到不同的结构
29:14 - 29:18
EN: You can call it a Wedge – one, two, three
ZH: 你可以说它是楔形顶——1，2，3
29:18 - 29:21
EN: - and a bull breakout above the Wedge that failed and reversed down.
ZH: 加速向上突破，失败，然后反转下跌
29:21 - 29:26
EN: You can call it simply a Trading Range and a Higher High Major Trend Reversal,
ZH: 也可以说它是震荡区间，然后是高点抬高的大反转
29:26 - 29:28
EN: a Parabolic Wedge – one, two, three.
ZH: 或者，它是抛物线楔形——1，2，3
29:28 - 29:33
EN: In any case, we’re trying to rally strongly, and we are reversing.
ZH: 总之，向上的突破失败，然后反转下跌
29:33 - 29:37
EN: Lots of Selling Pressure – here, here, and then especially here and here.
ZH: 有很多卖压——这里，这里，特别是这里和这里
29:37 - 29:44
EN: This is enough Selling Pressure so that the bears
ZH: 卖压足够强大，所以空头有一定的概率可以制造下降趋势
29:41 - 29:44
EN: have a reasonable chance of getting a trend down.
ZH: 卖压足够强大，所以空头有一定的概率可以制造下降趋势
29:44 - 29:49
EN: The bulls have a trend up, and now it’s very balanced,
ZH: 之前的上涨趋势是多头在掌控， 但现在双方势均力敌，因为空头变强壮了
29:48 - 29:49
EN: and the bears are very strong.
ZH: 之前的上涨趋势是多头在掌控， 但现在双方势均力敌，因为空头变强壮了
29:49 - 29:54
EN: Therefore, traders will start to look for a swing down.
ZH: 所以交易者看到了下跌波段的可能性
30:01 - 30:05
EN: A strong break below the bull trend line and a Wedge rally.
ZH: 强势地跌破了上涨趋势线，楔形反弹
30:05 - 30:09
EN: Up, down, up, down, up, and starting to go down.
ZH: 上涨，下跌；上涨，下跌； 上涨，再次开始下跌
30:09 - 30:12
EN: A 2-bar reversal, a bear bar closing on its low.
ZH: 双K反转，阴线收在最低
30:12 - 30:16
EN: If you want, some traders will look at it as a Double Top Lower High.
ZH: 一些交易者也会把它看作是双顶，低于前期的最高点
30:17 - 30:21
EN: In any case, it is a Lower High Major Trend Reversal,
ZH: 总之，这是高点降低的大反转结构
30:21 - 30:23
EN: and it’s a reasonable swing short.
ZH: 而且是合理的波段做空机会
30:23 - 30:29
EN: The worst the bears expect is a continued Trading Range
ZH: 空头预期：最差也是一个震荡区间，至少会测试区间的底部；
30:26 - 30:29
EN: and a test near the bottom of the range, and they’re hoping
ZH: 空头预期：最差也是一个震荡区间，至少会测试区间的底部；
30:29 - 30:33
EN: that it’s the first of many Lower Highs and the start of a bear trend.
ZH: 更好的结果是，高点开始不断降低，进入下降趋势
30:36 - 30:41
EN: If you take this short, it’s reasonable to put your stop just above the high.
ZH: 如果你在这里卖出做空（红色框框）， 把止损放在这个高点上方是合理的
30:41 - 30:43
EN: We have a Wedge and a good bear bar.
ZH: 楔形熊旗，很好的阴线
30:43 - 30:49
EN: Or you can put your stop above the top of the bear trend,
ZH: 或者，你可以把止损放在整个下降趋势的起跌点上方—— 至少空头希望它是下降趋势
30:46 - 30:49
EN: or what they hope is the top of the bear trend.
ZH: 或者，你可以把止损放在整个下降趋势的起跌点上方—— 至少空头希望它是下降趋势
30:52 - 30:56
EN: If you short below this bear bar – I don’t like to short below bull bars.
ZH: 如果你在这根阴线下方卖出做空—— 我不喜欢在阳线下方挂突破卖单
30:57 - 30:59
EN: I prefer to short below a bear bar closing on its low,
ZH: 我更喜欢在一根收在最低的阴线下方卖出
30:59 - 31:01
EN: so this is where I would short.
ZH: 所以这就是我会入场的地方
31:01 - 31:08
EN: If I shorted and I used a stop here, my Initial Risk would be the height
ZH: 如果我做空了，而且我把止损放在这里， 这个棕色框框的高度就是我的初始风险
31:07 - 31:11
EN: of this brown box, and two times my Initial Risk would be here.
ZH: 如果我做空了，而且我把止损放在这里， 这个棕色框框的高度就是我的初始风险 而两倍初始风险在这里
31:12 - 31:16
EN: And that’s always a reasonable location to take partial or full profits,
ZH: 在这里止盈部分或全部仓位，永远都是合理的
31:16 - 31:20
EN: especially since it’s at the bottom of a 50 bar Trading Range.
ZH: 尤其是因为这里已经是震荡区间的底部
31:21 - 31:26
EN: Trading Ranges tend to reverse at new lows and reverse at new highs,
ZH: 震荡区间往往从新低向上反转， 从新高向下反转
31:26 - 31:30
EN: and therefore there’s a pretty good chance
ZH: 所以这里有很大的几率会出现一定程度的反弹
31:28 - 31:30
EN: we’ll get some kind of a bounce up down here.
ZH: 所以这里有很大的几率会出现一定程度的反弹
31:30 - 31:35
EN: Mathematically, it’s good to take profits at two times Initial Risk.
ZH: 在两倍初始风险的地方止盈，数学是合理的
31:36 - 31:41
EN: Remember, the minimum reward that you want is two times Actual Risk.
ZH: 利润的最低要求，是不小于实际风险的两倍
31:41 - 31:44
EN: Had you sold below this bar, you would’ve been filled here.
ZH: 如果你在这根K线下方挂突破卖单， 订单会在这里成交
31:44 - 31:47
EN: If the market goes down, your Actual Risk is only right here.
ZH: 市场直接就下跌了，你的实际风险最多只有这一点点
31:48 - 31:52
EN: Exiting with two times Actual Risk is probably too small,
ZH: 按照两倍实际风险去止盈的话，利润就太小了
31:52 - 31:55
EN: given the size of the legs here.
ZH: 因为左边的K线波动都很大
32:00 - 32:08
EN: A bear who sold here trying to exit at two times Initial Risk has a limit order
ZH: 在这里卖出做空的空头， 会在两倍初始止损的地方挂限价买单去止盈
Slide 010
Time: 32:00
Bilingual Transcript
32:06 - 32:15
EN: to buy back his short here, or he may simply place a limit order
ZH: 在这里卖出做空的空头， 会在两倍初始止损的地方挂限价买单去止盈 或者有的空头会把限价买单挂在前期低点这里， 因为市场可能会在区间底部反转上涨
32:10 - 32:15
EN: to buy back his short here, thinking that we’re at the bottom
ZH: 或者有的空头会把限价买单挂在前期低点这里， 因为市场可能会在区间底部反转上涨
32:13 - 32:15
EN: of the range and it could reverse up.
ZH: 或者有的空头会把限价买单挂在前期低点这里， 因为市场可能会在区间底部反转上涨
32:15 - 32:23
EN: What do you do when the market is trying to go down, trying to go down,
ZH: 市场尝试下跌，尝试下跌，下跌，下跌，下跌， 但失去了动能，这时候应该怎么办？
32:19 - 32:23
EN: trying to go down, trying to go down, trying to go down, but losing momentum?
ZH: 市场尝试下跌，尝试下跌，下跌，下跌，下跌， 但失去了动能，这时候应该怎么办？
32:23 - 32:29
EN: The bear bars are getting smaller, we’re starting to get bull bars
ZH: 阴线的体积越来越小， 而且开始出现收在高位的阳线——这里，这里，这里
32:26 - 32:29
EN: closing on their highs – here, here, here
ZH: 阴线的体积越来越小， 而且开始出现收在高位的阳线——这里，这里，这里
32:29 - 32:32
EN: - and we’ve been in a Trading Range for 50 bars.
ZH: 大的背景是——震荡区间已经持续了50多根K线
32:33 - 32:35
EN: This is a problem for the bears.
ZH: 空头遇到了问题
32:35 - 32:37
EN: They have a bear spike and a pullback.
ZH: 急速下跌，反弹
32:37 - 32:42
EN: They’re hoping for a channel, three pushes down – one, two, three
ZH: 他们希望进入下降通道， 3次下跌达到目标位——1，2，3
32:42 - 32:47
EN: - and what they got was three pushes down – one, two or two, and three.
ZH: 但实际上得到的3推是——1，2，或者2，然后3
32:47 - 32:51
EN: But they could not get below this low, and this is starting to base out.
ZH: 他们无法跌破前期的低点，然后开始筑底
32:51 - 32:52
EN: It’s starting to go horizontal.
ZH: 价格开始横盘
32:57 - 33:00
EN: Very strong bear breakout, terrible follow-through.
ZH: 非常强势的空头突破，但后续跟随不好
33:00 - 33:02
EN: More bad follow-through for the bears.
ZH: 每根阴线后面的跟随都不好
33:02 - 33:05
EN: More bars closing on their highs, bad follow-through.
ZH: 越来越多K线收在高位，空头没有得到强势的跟随
33:05 - 33:08
EN: Here, we have a bear bar and a doji bar,
ZH: 这里，阴线后面是十字星
33:08 - 33:11
EN: a bear bar and a bull bar, a bear bar and a bull bar.
ZH: 阴线，阳线；阴线，阳线
33:12 - 33:16
EN: Therefore, there’s a lot of bad follow-through for the bears on the way down.
ZH: 因此对于空头来说，下跌过程中的跟随很糟糕
33:16 - 33:18
EN: There’s bad follow-through for the bulls on the way up.
ZH: 对于多头来说也是一样，跟随不好
33:18 - 33:20
EN: Bull bar, bear bar, bull bar, bear bar.
ZH: 阳线，阴线；阳线，阴线
33:20 - 33:23
EN: Bull bar, bear bar, bull bar, bear bar.
ZH: 阳线，阴线；阳线，阴线
33:23 - 33:25
EN: Trading Range behavior.
ZH: 这是震荡的价格行为
33:25 - 33:28
EN: And now we’re starting to get Trading Range behavior again,
ZH: 现在又开始出现了这样的震荡行为
33:28 - 33:32
EN: after what the bears hoped was a Lower High Major Trend Reversal
ZH: 空头希望这是高点降低的大反转
33:32 - 33:36
EN: and a strong breakout, and they hoped this was the start of a bear trend.
ZH: 大阴线下跌，他们希望这是下降趋势的开始
33:36 - 33:38
EN: But terrible follow-through.
ZH: 但跟随很糟糕
33:40 - 33:42
EN: Bottom of the range.
ZH: 现在到了区间的下沿
33:48 - 33:53
EN: What do you do? You took the short, thinking 40% chance of a swing down.
ZH: 你会怎么做？ 之前你入场做空，认为40%的概率会有下跌波段
33:55 - 33:59
EN: Now this is making you wonder if your premise is correct.
ZH: 现在，市场的价格行为让你怀疑，你的前提是否仍然正确
34:00 - 34:03
EN: If you begin to think that your premise is no longer valid,
ZH: 如果你认为这笔交易的前提不再成立，
34:03 - 34:07
EN: you have to exit your trade, and it’s reasonable to exit here.
ZH: 你就必须离场，而在这里离场是合理的
34:07 - 34:14
EN: We have a Wedge Bottom, a Higher Low, terrible follow-through
ZH: 楔形底，低点仍然在抬高，空头的跟随很差， 所以离场是合理的
34:11 - 34:14
EN: after the initial selloff, so it’s reasonable to exit here.
ZH: 楔形底，低点仍然在抬高，空头的跟随很差， 所以离场是合理的
34:14 - 34:18
EN: And is that a scalp profit or a swing profit? It doesn’t matter.
ZH: 利润很小，这到底是波段交易还是剥头皮交易？ 不重要
34:18 - 34:22
EN: It’s not what you hoped to get, but it’s a small profit.
ZH: 没有如你所愿跌到目标位，但仍然有一点利润
34:22 - 34:26
EN: I would call that a breakeven trade or a small profit trade.
ZH: 这样的小赚，在我看来和打平其实没有太大区别
34:26 - 34:30
EN: But that’s what you get 60% of the time when you trade Major Trend Reversals.
ZH: 在做大反转的时候，60%都是类似这种情况
34:31 - 34:32
EN: You don’t get a swing trade.
ZH: 不会很轻易地赚到大波段
34:32 - 34:35
EN: You either get a small profit or a small loss.
ZH: 要么小赚，要么小亏
34:41 - 34:45
EN: The market continued sideways, and we’re reversing up a third time.
ZH: 市场继续横盘，然后第3次尝试上涨
34:45 - 34:49
EN: First reversal up, second reversal up, third reversal up,
ZH: 第1次，第2次，第3次
34:49 - 34:52
EN: in a sideways market, and therefore it’s a Triangle.
ZH: 因为主要是横盘，所以这是一个三角形
34:53 - 34:55
EN: And we’re reversing up from the bottom of the Triangle.
ZH: 价格正在从三角形的底部反转上涨
34:55 - 35:01
EN: Another bear breakout attempt to a Higher Low, followed by a bull inside bar.
ZH: 空头尝试向下跌破，但低点仍然在抬高
35:01 - 35:03
EN: Some bulls would buy above the high of that bar and get filled here.
ZH: 一些多头会在那根K线的高点上方挂突破买单， 订单会在这里成交（绿色框框）
35:03 - 35:08
EN: Others would wait for a second entry and buy above this bar and get filled here.
ZH: 一些人会等待第2做多入场点—— 在这根K线的高点上方挂单，在这里成交
35:13 - 35:16
EN: I talked about Lower High Major Trend Reversals in this video,
ZH: 这节课我主要讲了高点降低的大反转结构
Slide 011
Time: 35:15
Bilingual Transcript
35:16 - 35:23
EN: and like all major reversals, they have about a 40% chance
ZH: 就像所有的大反转结构一样， 有40%的概率可以形成反转的波段
35:21 - 35:23
EN: of leading to a swing profit.
ZH: 就像所有的大反转结构一样， 有40%的概率可以形成反转的波段
35:23 - 35:28
EN: By a swing profit, I mean at least two times your actual or Initial Risk.
ZH: 波段的意思是：利润至少等于两倍实际风险或初始风险
35:28 - 35:33
EN: Usually you’re looking for at least two legs and 20 or more bars.
ZH: 通常会持续两段，以及至少20根K线
35:34 - 35:38
EN: You get that about 40% of the time if you pick the right entries.
ZH: 如果你的入场是合理的，那么至少有40%的概率你可以赚到波段
35:38 - 35:43
EN: Getting that only 40% of the time greatly offsets the low probability.
ZH: 因为盈亏比足够好，所以可以弥补概率的不足
35:43 - 35:45
EN: It’s a profitable strategy.
ZH: 仍然是可以盈利的策略
35:49 - 35:50
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
35:50 - 35:52
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
35:52 - 35:57
EN: This is the third of four videos on trading Major Trend Reversal Tops.
ZH: 顶部大反转的第3节课，就先讲到这里