al-brooks-course
27A - Head and Shoulders
Raw transcript and slide notes for 27A - Head and Shoulders.
Overview
- Slides: 17
- Transcript segments: 447
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:06
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:06 - 00:10
EN: This is the first of two videos on Head and Shoulders patterns.
ZH: 接下来的两节课，我们来讲头肩结构
Slide 001
Time: 00:13
Bilingual Transcript
00:15 - 00:21
EN: I think it’s important to understand that every Head and Shoulders pattern
ZH: 每个头肩结构，都是大反转的结构， 认识到这一点很重要
00:19 - 00:21
EN: is a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 每个头肩结构，都是大反转的结构， 认识到这一点很重要
00:21 - 00:24
EN: Not all Major Trend Reversals are Head and Shoulders patterns
ZH: 不是所有的大反转都是头肩形，
00:24 - 00:28
EN: because not all Major Trend Reversals have a left shoulder.
ZH: 因为不是所有的大反转都有左肩
00:29 - 00:34
EN: Most Head and Shoulders reversals are minor and lead to Trading Ranges
ZH: 大多数的头肩反转都只是小反转， 会变成震荡区间
00:34 - 00:37
EN: rather than an actual reversal of a trend.
ZH: 而不是变成相反的趋势
Slide 002
Time: 00:38
Bilingual Transcript
00:40 - 00:45
EN: I’m continuing down the list of major reversal patterns.
ZH: 我会继续按照这个列表来讲反转的结构
Slide 003
Time: 00:50
Bilingual Transcript
00:53 - 00:59
EN: When I talk about a major reversal, I’m talking about a reversal
ZH: 当我讲大反转的时候， 我指的是至少10根K线、两段移动，
00:57 - 01:05
EN: that leads to at least 10 bars and two legs and a move that is probably two,
ZH: 当我讲大反转的时候， 我指的是至少10根K线、两段移动， 幅度至少是剥头皮最小目标的3或4倍
01:02 - 01:05
EN: three, four times bigger than a minimum scalp.
ZH: 幅度至少是剥头皮最小目标的3或4倍
01:07 - 01:13
EN: To get a major reversal, usually the pattern
ZH: 要想成功地大反转，通常结构要足够大
01:10 - 01:13
EN: that leads to the reversal has to be fairly big.
ZH: 要想成功地大反转，通常结构要足够大
01:13 - 01:19
EN: You can get it with 5 big bars or 10 small bars, sometimes 20 small bars.
ZH: 可以是5根大的K线，或者10根，有时甚至20根K线
01:20 - 01:24
EN: When you enter after a major reversal setup,
ZH: 看到大反转的机会之后入场，
01:25 - 01:27
EN: you have about a 40% chance of a swing trade.
ZH: 大约有40%的概率会赚到一笔波段
01:28 - 01:33
EN: 60% chance that you’ll have either a small loss or a small win.
ZH: 剩余60%的时间小赚或小亏
01:34 - 01:43
EN: When a market is trying to form a major reversal, it usually has to have
ZH: 在市场大反转之前，首先要有初始的反转尝试—— 比如下降趋势中的反弹——
01:39 - 01:43
EN: an initial reversal – in this case, a rally in a bear trend
ZH: 在市场大反转之前，首先要有初始的反转尝试—— 比如下降趋势中的反弹——
01:43 - 01:46
EN: - to demonstrate that the bulls are reasonably strong,
ZH: 来表明多头正变得强势
01:46 - 01:49
EN: and then the market needs to reverse up a second time.
ZH: 然后市场需要第2次反转上涨
01:50 - 01:55
EN: The size of the reversal, usually you need at least 5 or 10 bars
ZH: 反转的规模：通常每段需要至少5或10根K线
01:54 - 01:55
EN: in each of the two legs.
ZH: 反转的规模：通常每段需要至少5或10根K线
01:55 - 02:00
EN: You can have simply 1 bar if it’s big enough, but most reversal patterns
ZH: 如果足够大，1根超大的K线也可以， 但大多数的反转结构，
02:00 - 02:06
EN: have 5 or 10 bars in the first leg and 5 or 10 bars in the second leg as well.
ZH: 第1段有5~10根K线，第2段也一样
02:10 - 02:14
EN: The reversal up in that bear trend, the first reversal up,
ZH: 下降趋势中的第1次反转上涨
02:14 - 02:16
EN: traders call it a left shoulder.
ZH: 交易者给它起名为左肩
02:16 - 02:19
EN: They see the bear trend resume.
ZH: 他们看到下降趋势恢复
02:19 - 02:23
EN: If it reverses up again, they then refer to that as a head.
ZH: 如果再次尝试上涨，这个低点就被称为是头
02:26 - 02:29
EN: The bear trend tries to resume again,
ZH: 下降趋势继续
02:29 - 02:32
EN: and if the market reverses up a third time,
ZH: 如果市场第3次反转上涨
02:32 - 02:36
EN: they look at that and describe it as a right shoulder.
ZH: 交易者就说它是右肩
02:38 - 02:42
EN: The pattern, you can argue, is a Lower Low Major Trend Reversal
ZH: 可以说，先是低点降低的大反转
02:42 - 02:45
EN: followed by a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 然后是低点抬高的大反转
02:45 - 02:51
EN: The head often is not quite a good enough pattern
ZH: 通常，“头”不是一个好的反转机会
02:48 - 02:51
EN: to be called a Lower Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 通常，“头”不是一个好的反转机会
02:51 - 02:59
EN: For example, here, is this enough of a rally so that traders will look
ZH: 例如这里，这个反弹是否足够大， 能让交易者认为它可以大反转？不太行
02:56 - 02:59
EN: at this as a major reversal? Not necessarily.
ZH: 例如这里，这个反弹是否足够大， 能让交易者认为它可以大反转？不太行
02:59 - 03:02
EN: This is probably more of a minor reversal.
ZH: 这更有可能只是小反转
03:02 - 03:07
EN: We have about 5 or 6 bars up, not all that big, and then we have 30 bars down,
ZH: 只是上涨了5~6根K线，体积也不大， 然后下跌了30根K线
03:07 - 03:10
EN: which is undoing a lot of what the bulls did here.
ZH: 多头前期的努力全都白费了
03:11 - 03:13
EN: We have another reversal up here.
ZH: 再次反弹上涨
03:13 - 03:17
EN: This is stronger than that one.
ZH: 比之前的反弹更强，阳线的体积更大
03:15 - 03:22
EN: We have a couple bigger bars, and now we have a selloff
ZH: 比之前的反弹更强，阳线的体积更大 然后小幅下跌了5~10根K线，两段下跌——
03:18 - 03:22
EN: that lasts about 5 or 10 bars, a couple legs down – one,
ZH: 然后小幅下跌了5~10根K线，两段下跌——
03:22 - 03:25
EN: pullback, two – and a Micro Double Bottom.
ZH: 1，反弹，2；而且还有一个小双底
03:25 - 03:29
EN: Traders are more inclined to trade this as a major reversal pattern.
ZH: 交易者更愿意在这里尝试去做大反转
03:34 - 03:36
EN: The fewer bars that are in the pattern,
ZH: 结构中的K线数量越少
03:36 - 03:39
EN: the more likely the reversal will be minor.
ZH: 越有可能只是小反转
03:40 - 03:45
EN: For example, if you get a reversal up in a bear trend
ZH: 比如，下降趋势中有一些反弹，并不强势
03:43 - 03:53
EN: and it’s not all that strong, if you look at this
ZH: 比如，下降趋势中有一些反弹，并不强势 如果你把它看作是低点抬高的小双底， 更有可能只是小反转，变成熊旗或震荡区间
03:45 - 03:53
EN: as a potential Higher Low, it’s probably a minor reversal
ZH: 如果你把它看作是低点抬高的小双底， 更有可能只是小反转，变成熊旗或震荡区间
03:49 - 03:53
EN: that will lead to either a bear flag or a Trading Range.
ZH: 如果你把它看作是低点抬高的小双底， 更有可能只是小反转，变成熊旗或震荡区间
03:53 - 03:57
EN: In other words, it’ll probably be followed by at least a leg down.
ZH: 换句话说，反弹之后至少还有一段下跌
04:01 - 04:06
EN: We have a strong rally, a reversal attempt (minor, a pullback and a bull flag),
ZH: 强势上涨，小回调（牛旗）
04:06 - 04:08
EN: and then we have a very strong bull bar.
ZH: 然后有一根非常强的大阳线
04:08 - 04:11
EN: It’s probably going to be an Exhaustion Gap.
ZH: 可能是竭尽型缺口
04:11 - 04:17
EN: So, the space between this close and this high will probably close – and it did.
ZH: 所以，这个收盘价和这个最高点之间的缺口， 大概率会被填补——缺口补掉了
04:19 - 04:23
EN: When traders see this and then they see another reversal attempt up here,
ZH: 当交易者看到这个回调，然后看到这里再次下跌，
04:23 - 04:28
EN: they begin to wonder if the market is in the process
ZH: 他们开始思考，市场是否正在形成大反转的结构
04:26 - 04:28
EN: of forming a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 他们开始思考，市场是否正在形成大反转的结构
04:29 - 04:35
EN: The market sold off here.
ZH: 下跌，这根大阴线把大阳线的大部分涨幅都跌掉了
04:30 - 04:35
EN: This big bear bar erased much of this big bull bar.
ZH: 下跌，这根大阴线把大阳线的大部分涨幅都跌掉了
04:35 - 04:39
EN: The market tried to reverse up on this bar; it reversed down.
ZH: 多头尝试在这根K线反转上涨，继续下跌；
04:39 - 04:43
EN: It tried to reverse up again a second time, and now we have a small Double Top.
ZH: 第2次尝试反转上涨，现在形成了小双顶
04:44 - 04:47
EN: Down, up, down, up.
ZH: 下跌，上涨；下跌，上涨
04:47 - 04:50
EN: And on a smaller timeframe chart this would be
ZH: 在较小时间周期的K线图上，
04:50 - 04:52
EN: a good-looking Head and Shoulders Top.
ZH: 这会是一个漂亮的头肩顶结构
04:52 - 04:56
EN: On this particular chart, there’s just not enough bars in the pattern.
ZH: 在这个K线图上，结构中的K线数量不够
04:56 - 05:00
EN: This selloff is only a bar or two, this rally is only a few bars,
ZH: 这个下跌只有一两根K线，这个反弹只有几根K线
05:00 - 05:02
EN: this selloff is only a few bars.
ZH: 这个下跌也只有几根K线
05:02 - 05:06
EN: When I look at this, the odds are it’s a minor reversal
ZH: 当看到这种情况，更有可能只是小反转
05:06 - 05:08
EN: and it will be followed by a Trading Range.
ZH: 市场会进入震荡区间
05:08 - 05:12
EN: But sometimes a minor reversal will lead to a swing trade,
ZH: 但小反转也可能有波段交易的机会
05:12 - 05:16
EN: meaning at least 10 bars and two legs, as it did here,
ZH: 也就是两段、10K，就像这里，
05:16 - 05:20
EN: and a reward that is at least twice as big as the actual risk.
ZH: 而且利润至少是实际风险的两倍
05:24 - 05:28
EN: Another reversal attempt here, only a few bars.
ZH: 反弹，只有3根K线
05:28 - 05:30
EN: Trend resumption here, only a few bars.
ZH: 继续下跌，也只是几根K线
05:30 - 05:32
EN: Another reversal attempt here.
ZH: 再次尝试上涨
05:32 - 05:35
EN: This is probably a minor reversal.
ZH: 这大概率是小反转
05:35 - 05:40
EN: We have a bear trend, a small bull breakout, and therefore this is probably
ZH: 下降趋势，多头突破的幅度很小
05:40 - 05:43
EN: not going to be a Lower Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 所以这不是一个低点降低的大反转机会
05:43 - 05:49
EN: And you can call this an attempt to resume the bear trend,
ZH: 你可以说这是双顶熊旗，尝试恢复下降趋势
05:48 - 05:53
EN: a Double Top bear flag, but the entire pattern
ZH: 你可以说这是双顶熊旗，尝试恢复下降趋势 但整个结构，以及每段上涨和下跌中，K线的数量太少了
05:51 - 05:53
EN: has too few bars in all of the legs.
ZH: 但整个结构，以及每段上涨和下跌中，K线的数量太少了
05:53 - 05:58
EN: And therefore, instead of this being a major reversal up into a bull trend,
ZH: 所以市场不会大反转、进入上涨趋势
05:58 - 06:03
EN: it’s probably a minor reversal into a Trading Range or a bear flag.
ZH: 更有可能只是小反转，进入震荡区间或熊旗
06:03 - 06:07
EN: We have two legs up, one, pullback, two, so it’s a Low 2 bear flag.
ZH: 两段上涨——1，回调，2； 所以这是低2熊旗
06:07 - 06:09
EN: It’s also a Double Top bear flag.
ZH: 也是双顶熊旗
06:09 - 06:13
EN: And we have a Micro Double Top here and a second entry short here,
ZH: 这里还有一个小双顶，是第2做空入场点
06:13 - 06:17
EN: a resumption of the bear trend – but it became a Trading Range.
ZH: 下降趋势恢复，但变成了震荡区间
Slide 004
Time: 06:20
Bilingual Transcript
06:23 - 06:25
EN: As is the case with all swing trade setups,
ZH: 就和所有的波段交易一样，
06:25 - 06:30
EN: the earliest entry has low probability, but it has lower risk as well.
ZH: 最早的入场点胜率低，但风险也低
06:30 - 06:33
EN: For example, if you buy above this Micro Double Bottom,
ZH: 比如说，如果你在这个小双底的上方买如做多
06:33 - 06:34
EN: you might put your stop below.
ZH: 然后把止损放在下方
06:34 - 06:38
EN: So your risk is small, and the potential reward is very big.
ZH: 你的风险很小，而潜在的利润非常大
06:38 - 06:41
EN: In other words, excellent risk/reward ratio,
ZH: 换句话说，盈亏比非常好，
06:41 - 06:45
EN: and that always has to come with low probability.
ZH: 但代价通常是胜率低
06:45 - 06:51
EN: The probability of a swing trade in general is 40% for any Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 大反转波段交易的胜率通常来说是40%
06:55 - 06:58
EN: You always hear about necklines, Head and Shoulders Top necklines.
ZH: 你肯定经常听说“颈线”一词， 头肩顶，颈线
06:58 - 07:02
EN: Is the neckline drawn across the two rallies, the one from the left shoulder
ZH: 颈线是把两个高点连接起来吗？
07:02 - 07:05
EN: and the one from the head? A lot of computers will say yes.
ZH: 连接左肩和头的反弹高点？ 很多电脑程序是这样画的
07:05 - 07:09
EN: Other computers will say, well, the Lower High is more important,
ZH: 也有电脑程序认为，这个降低的高点更加重要
07:09 - 07:10
EN: so the breakout is there.
ZH: 所以关注这里的突破
07:10 - 07:14
EN: Others will say, well, the whole thing is a Trading Range.
ZH: 还有的电脑程序认为，整个结构是一个震荡区间
07:14 - 07:18
EN: It’s not going to be a bull trend unless it breaks
ZH: 除非价格突破整个区间，否则就不能算是上涨趋势
07:16 - 07:18
EN: above the entire Trading Range.
ZH: 除非价格突破整个区间，否则就不能算是上涨趋势
07:18 - 07:21
EN: Every Head and Shoulders pattern is a Trading Range,
ZH: 每个头肩结构都是一个震荡区间
07:21 - 07:25
EN: and the breakout of the Head and Shoulders pattern is a Trading Range breakout.
ZH: 突破头肩顶/底，就是突破震荡区间
07:26 - 07:29
EN: Different computers use different lines, and they enter at different times.
ZH: 不同的电脑程序关注不同的线，在不同的时间入场
07:29 - 07:33
EN: It doesn’t matter which entry you take if you’re looking to buy.
ZH: 如果你想买入，选择任何一个入场点都可以
07:36 - 07:41
EN: The initial entry is a reversal in a Trading Range,
ZH: 最早的入场点是震荡区间底部的反转
07:41 - 07:44
EN: maybe a 40% chance you’re going to get a swing out of it.
ZH: 通常40%的概率可以赚到一个波段
07:44 - 07:47
EN: If you want higher probability, you wait for a strong breakout.
ZH: 如果想要更高的胜率，就需要等待强势突破
07:47 - 07:49
EN: We have a breakout here, we have a follow-through here.
ZH: 大阳线，跟随阳线
07:49 - 07:53
EN: So start buying closes – either this close or that close.
ZH: 所以可以在阳线的收盘买入——它或者它的收盘
07:53 - 07:55
EN: Another breakout, this close or that close.
ZH: 再次突破，在它或它的收盘买入
07:55 - 08:00
EN: Buying those closes has a higher probability of making a profit,
ZH: 在这些阳线的收盘买入，赚钱的概率更高了
08:00 - 08:03
EN: but your stop is further away, here or here.
ZH: 但是止损也更远了，在这里或这里
08:03 - 08:04
EN: And that’s always the case.
ZH: 总是存在这样的矛盾
08:04 - 08:12
EN: Whenever you wait and take a higher probability trade, your stop is going to be
ZH: 如果你等待明确的突破、做高胜率的交易， 止损就会更远，而且剩余的利润更少
08:08 - 08:12
EN: further away and there’s going to be less profit remaining.
ZH: 如果你等待明确的突破、做高胜率的交易， 止损就会更远，而且剩余的利润更少
08:12 - 08:13
EN: There’s a tradeoff.
ZH: 用盈亏比交换胜率
08:13 - 08:18
EN: If you want high probability, your risk/reward ratio will be worse.
ZH: 如果你想要高胜率，那么盈亏比就会变差
08:19 - 08:23
EN: If you want to take a trade with lower risk, you’re taking the earlier entry.
ZH: 如果你想做低风险的交易，就会更早入场，
08:23 - 08:27
EN: You’re probably going to lose most of the time,
ZH: 大部分时间可能会被止损，或赚不到什么钱 （注：但偶尔的大赚可以弥补这些小亏）
08:25 - 08:27
EN: or not make much money most of the time.
ZH: 大部分时间可能会被止损，或赚不到什么钱 （注：但偶尔的大赚可以弥补这些小亏）
08:27 - 08:30
EN: However, the math is just as good.
ZH: 然而，两种做法的数学期望是一样的
08:30 - 08:34
EN: If you take 100 entries like this or 100 entries like that,
ZH: 用两种方法各做100次，
08:34 - 08:36
EN: your total profit will be about the same.
ZH: 最后总的利润是差不多的
08:41 - 08:45
EN: Again, a Major Trend Reversal is usually part of a Trading Range.
ZH: 再讲一遍，大反转结构通常是震荡区间的一部分
08:45 - 08:48
EN: A Head and Shoulders Bottom is certainly a Trading Range.
ZH: 头肩底一定是震荡区间
08:48 - 08:54
EN: And most entries from Major Trend Reversals result in more Trading Range.
ZH: 大部分的大反转结构会继续震荡
08:54 - 08:56
EN: 40% of the time you get a swing up.
ZH: 40%的时间会有上涨的波段
Slide 005
Time: 09:00
Bilingual Transcript
09:03 - 09:04
EN: Head and Shoulders Bottom.
ZH: 头肩底
09:04 - 09:09
EN: We have a bear trend and we have a break above the bear trend line.
ZH: 下降趋势，突破下降趋势线
09:09 - 09:11
EN: I could’ve drawn a trend line like this and said this is the break
ZH: 当然我也可以这样画一条趋势线，
09:11 - 09:16
EN: above the trend line, and then call this a Lower Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 突破趋势线，这是低点降低的大反转
09:16 - 09:20
EN: However, as I said, this is not very much Buying Pressure,
ZH: 但是就像刚才说的那样，这里没有什么买压 （注：幅度小，持续时间短）
09:20 - 09:23
EN: and this is a lot of trend resumption down.
ZH: 而且继续下跌了很久
09:23 - 09:29
EN: This is a better-looking rally, so I would call
ZH: 而这里的反弹更强势一些， 所以我把它看作是突破下降通道
09:26 - 09:29
EN: this the break above the bear channel.
ZH: 而这里的反弹更强势一些， 所以我把它看作是突破下降通道
09:29 - 09:32
EN: And once I see that, I’m going to look for a test back down,
ZH: 一旦我看到这样的突破，我就等待回测
09:32 - 09:34
EN: a resumption of the bear trend,
ZH: 等待下降趋势恢复
09:34 - 09:38
EN: and see if that resumption fails and reverses up.
ZH: 然后看空头是否会失败，并且反转上涨
09:42 - 09:46
EN: Bear trend, bull break above the channel, and the bear trend is resuming.
ZH: 下降趋势，多头突破趋势线，下降趋势正在恢复
09:46 - 09:49
EN: I want to see if it’s going to reverse up a second time.
ZH: 我想看它是否会第2次反转上涨
09:52 - 09:55
EN: Instead of getting a new low, we have a Higher Low.
ZH: 没有跌破前低，低点抬高了
09:55 - 09:59
EN: It’s a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal, and we have a very strong reversal up.
ZH: 这是低点抬高的大反转机会，非常强势地反转上涨了
09:59 - 10:03
EN: The market became Always In Long, probably on the close of this bar.
ZH: 在这根K线的收盘，市场已经进入了单边上涨
10:03 - 10:06
EN: That means chances are we’re going higher.
ZH: 所以还会继续上涨
10:07 - 10:12
EN: Every Head and Shoulders Bottom is a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 每个头肩底都是低点抬高的大反转
10:12 - 10:16
EN: You have a bear trend, a bull breakout, and a Higher Low.
ZH: 下降趋势，多头突破，低点抬高
10:16 - 10:20
EN: Some Higher Low Major Trend Reversals do not have a left shoulder;
ZH: 一些低点抬高的大反转没有左肩，
10:20 - 10:27
EN: therefore, many Higher Low Major Trend Reversals
ZH: 所以它们不一定是头肩底
10:24 - 10:27
EN: are not additionally Head and Shoulders Bottoms
ZH: 所以它们不一定是头肩底
10:27 - 10:31
EN: - but every Head and Shoulders Bottom is a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 但每一个头肩底都是低点抬高的大反转
10:39 - 10:41
EN: The bulls buy the reversal up from the Higher Low,
ZH: 价格从更高的低点反转上涨时，多头买入，
10:41 - 10:46
EN: hoping it’s the first of many Higher Lows and therefore a bull trend.
ZH: 押注之后的低点会越来越高——进入上涨趋势
Slide 006
Time: 10:50
Bilingual Transcript
10:56 - 11:01
EN: Some traders will look to buy this as a Lower Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 一些交易者会把它看作低点降低的大反转， 于是买入做多
11:01 - 11:05
EN: In other words, they’re anticipating a possible Head and Shoulders Bottom
ZH: 换句话说，他们预期会出现头肩底的结构
11:05 - 11:09
EN: and they’ll buy the reversal up from the head – which is okay.
ZH: 并且从“头”就开始买入做多——这样做也可以
11:09 - 11:13
EN: You’ve got a bunch of tails below the bars, a Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 有很多下影线，这是一个窄震荡区间
11:13 - 11:17
EN: It looks like the momentum down is waning, and it’s okay.
ZH: 看起来下跌的动能已经衰竭，是合理的
11:17 - 11:20
EN: It’s a low probability bet, but the math is still okay
ZH: 尽管胜率不高，但数学期望仍然合理，
11:20 - 11:24
EN: because the potential reward is much better than the risk.
ZH: 因为潜在的利润远远大于风险
11:29 - 11:34
EN: Most Head and Shoulders Bottoms traders, traders looking for
ZH: 寻找头肩底反转结构的交易者，
11:32 - 11:37
EN: Head and Shoulders Bottoms, they look to buy the reversal up
ZH: 寻找头肩底反转结构的交易者， 大部分都会在右肩买入做多
11:36 - 11:37
EN: from the right shoulder.
ZH: 大部分都会在右肩买入做多
11:38 - 11:42
EN: Major Trend Reversal bulls will buy that same entry because they see the pattern
ZH: 做大反转的多头也会在这里买入，
11:42 - 11:46
EN: as a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal – which it is.
ZH: 因为他们把这个机构看作是低点抬高的大反转
11:48 - 11:54
EN: Traders enter above that bull bar or above this Micro Double Bottom.
ZH: 多头会在这根阳线的上方，或小双底上方买入
11:54 - 11:58
EN: Two legs down, bear bar, dojis, bear bars,
ZH: 两段下跌——阴线，十字星，阴线
11:58 - 12:00
EN: and then a Micro Double Bottom and a Higher Low.
ZH: 然后小双底，并且低点抬高
12:02 - 12:10
EN: The bulls see this as a breakout above the bear channel,
ZH: 多头把它看作突破下降通道之后的两段式回调
12:06 - 12:10
EN: and this as a two-legged pullback from that breakout,
ZH: 多头把它看作突破下降通道之后的两段式回调
12:10 - 12:11
EN: and it formed a Higher Low.
ZH: 并且形成了抬高的低点
12:11 - 12:15
EN: This is the start of the rally, and this is a two-legged pullback,
ZH: 这是整个上涨的起点，然后两段式回调
12:15 - 12:20
EN: a High 2 bull flag, and they buy, hoping for a bull trend.
ZH: 这是高2牛旗，多头买入，希望形成上涨趋势
12:23 - 12:25
EN: We have a bull trend here.
ZH: 上涨趋势
Slide 007
Time: 12:25
Bilingual Transcript
12:25 - 12:28
EN: You can see a potential Head and Shoulders Top.
ZH: 潜在的头肩顶
12:31 - 12:35
EN: If I draw the trend line like this, this is the break below the trend line.
ZH: 如果这样画一条趋势线，这里跌破了趋势线
12:35 - 12:38
EN: The bars are not big, but there are a lot of bear bars.
ZH: K线不大，但有很多阴线
12:38 - 12:39
EN: Pretty good Selling Pressure.
ZH: 非常不错的卖压
12:39 - 12:44
EN: Traders will then look at the next attempt to resume the bull trend
ZH: 交易者会等待上涨趋势恢复的尝试，
12:44 - 12:48
EN: and they’ll look to sell a reversal down.
ZH: 然后在反转下跌时卖出做空
12:48 - 12:52
EN: You can call it a Wedge Lower High – a pair of bull bars,
ZH: 3推上涨，形成降低的高点——两根阳线，
12:52 - 12:54
EN: a bear bar, another bull bar, bear bar.
ZH: 阴线；阳线，阴线
12:54 - 12:58
EN: Has four little pushes up, interrupted by bear bars.
ZH: 4次小的向上推动，夹杂着阴线
12:58 - 13:01
EN: And they’ll sell below the low of the prior bar.
ZH: 空头会在前1根K线的低点下方卖出
13:01 - 13:04
EN: Some will look to sell below this bar – no fill
ZH: 一些人会在这根K线下方挂突破卖单——没有成交
13:04 - 13:08
EN: - and then sell below this bar or below that bear bar, and they got filled.
ZH: 然后在这根K线或那个阴线下方继续挂突破卖单， 在这里成交了
13:09 - 13:13
EN: You can draw a tighter bull trend line like this,
ZH: 你可以像这样画一条更窄的上涨趋势线
13:13 - 13:16
EN: but it’s really not a good parallel.
ZH: 但通道就不那么平行了
13:16 - 13:19
EN: You can see there’s an obvious top to the channel.
ZH: 可以看到，通道有一个明显的上沿，
13:19 - 13:24
EN: Traders would rather have a channel that is made of parallel lines.
ZH: 交易者（和电脑程序）更关注平行的通道线
13:24 - 13:29
EN: Drawing a tighter bull channel like this or a tighter bull trend line like that
ZH: 如果像这样或那样，画更窄的上涨通道，
13:29 - 13:34
EN: and calling this a possible top, most traders would not consider it major.
ZH: 然后把它看作潜在的顶部， 大部分交易者不会认为它是大反转的结构
13:34 - 13:40
EN: We have three pushes up, one, two, three, but a lot of big bull bars
ZH: 3次向上推动——1，2，3； 但阳线的数量和体积都远大于阴线
13:38 - 13:40
EN: relative to the number of bear bars.
ZH: 3次向上推动——1，2，3； 但阳线的数量和体积都远大于阴线
13:40 - 13:44
EN: Probably a minor reversal only into a bull flag and higher prices.
ZH: 很可能只是小回调，牛旗，然后继续上涨
13:44 - 13:45
EN: And the same with this.
ZH: 这个也是一样
13:45 - 13:48
EN: If I were to look at this as the bull trend
ZH: 如果我把它看作上涨趋势
13:48 - 13:51
EN: and this as the bear breakout, the bear breakout is small.
ZH: 这里是空头突破，这个突破太小了
13:51 - 13:52
EN: It’s a Higher Low.
ZH: 而且低点还在抬高
13:52 - 13:55
EN: This is probably not going to be a major reversal.
ZH: 不是大反转
13:55 - 14:03
EN: If you look at this as a Higher High Major Trend Reversal, it’s probably minor
ZH: 不是高点抬高的大反转，很可能只是小反转， 会进入震荡区间，而不是下降趋势
14:00 - 14:03
EN: and it probably will lead to a Trading Range instead of a bear trend.
ZH: 不是高点抬高的大反转，很可能只是小反转， 会进入震荡区间，而不是下降趋势
14:05 - 14:11
EN: We have a break far below the bull channel, and this channel is fairly parallel.
ZH: 大幅跌破了上涨通道，而且是很平行的通道
14:11 - 14:13
EN: I have the trend line drawn in.
ZH: 我只画了下方的趋势线
14:13 - 14:15
EN: I do not have the trend channel line drawn in,
ZH: 没有把上沿的通道线画出来
14:15 - 14:17
EN: but it’s a fairly parallel channel.
ZH: 但很明显这是一个很平行的通道
14:18 - 14:22
EN: Therefore, traders will look at this as a significant reversal.
ZH: 所以交易者会把它看作是一次重要的反转下跌
14:22 - 14:23
EN: Even though it’s mostly sideways,
ZH: 尽管跌幅不是很大
14:23 - 14:26
EN: it has a lot of bear bars and an endless pullback.
ZH: 但其中有很多阴线，是无尽的回调
14:26 - 14:30
EN: So, pretty good Selling Pressure – enough so that when the bull trend resumes,
ZH: 有相当大的卖压——所以在上涨趋势恢复之后，
14:30 - 14:34
EN: a lot of the bears will be prepared to sell a reversal down.
ZH: 很多空头会等着在反转下跌时入场做空
14:34 - 14:38
EN: They’ll sell below the low of the prior bar after at least a couple legs up.
ZH: 等待至少几段上涨之后， 空头会在前1根K线的低点下方卖出做空
14:42 - 14:46
EN: Instead of getting a new high, we reversed down strongly.
ZH: 价格没能创新高，反而是迅速反转下跌
14:46 - 14:53
EN: It’s a Lower High Major Trend Reversal, and because there’s a left shoulder,
ZH: 这是高点降低的大反转； 因为有左肩，所以也可以说它是头肩顶
14:50 - 14:53
EN: you can also call it a Head and Shoulders Top.
ZH: 这是高点降低的大反转； 因为有左肩，所以也可以说它是头肩顶
14:56 - 14:58
EN: Traders will sell the reversal down here.
ZH: 交易者会在反转下跌时卖出做空
14:58 - 15:03
EN: The probability is not all that high, but the risk/reward ratio is good.
ZH: 此时做空的胜率并不算高，但盈亏比很好
15:03 - 15:06
EN: A lot of potential reward, not much risk.
ZH: 风险小，潜在利润巨大
15:06 - 15:08
EN: Stop either above this bar or above that bar.
ZH: 止损放在这根K线或那根K线的上方
15:09 - 15:13
EN: And then now we have a pullback from the initial breakout.
ZH: 空头突破后有一些反弹
15:13 - 15:19
EN: Traders will also sell this as well, even though the market
ZH: 空头会继续做空， 不过之后市场进入了窄震荡区间
15:17 - 15:19
EN: simply entered a Tight Trading Range here.
ZH: 空头会继续做空， 不过之后市场进入了窄震荡区间
15:25 - 15:30
EN: Traders see this Lower High as a pullback from this bear breakout.
ZH: 交易者把这段上涨看作是这个空头突破之后的反弹
15:30 - 15:33
EN: It’s therefore a breakout pullback short.
ZH: 所以是跌破，反弹之后做空
15:33 - 15:35
EN: We have a bear breakout below a bull channel,
ZH: 跌破上涨通道
15:35 - 15:38
EN: and this is a pullback to a Lower High.
ZH: 反弹不再创新高
15:38 - 15:44
EN: Some traders will sell below that, simply looking at it as a pullback
ZH: 一些空头会在它的下方卖出做空， 把它看作是跌破上涨趋势线之后的反弹
15:41 - 15:44
EN: from this bear breakout below the bull trend line.
ZH: 一些空头会在它的下方卖出做空， 把它看作是跌破上涨趋势线之后的反弹
15:45 - 15:48
EN: Other traders don’t put that much thought into it
ZH: 一些交易者可能不会想那么多，
15:48 - 15:51
EN: and they just say “Oh, Head and Shoulders Top.
ZH: 只是简单的：“哦，头肩顶。我要做空！”
15:50 - 15:51
EN: I’m looking to sell.”
ZH: 只是简单的：“哦，头肩顶。我要做空！”
Slide 008
Time: 15:55
Bilingual Transcript
15:58 - 16:02
EN: Higher High Major Trend Reversal, Higher High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 高点抬高的大反转, 高点抬高的大反转
16:02 - 16:04
EN: Both are really minor.
ZH: 实际上都只是小反转
16:04 - 16:09
EN: We’re still in the bull channel, and the selling is not significant.
ZH: 仍然在上涨通道中，没有明显的卖压
16:09 - 16:11
EN: This is probably a minor reversal.
ZH: 这更有可能只是小反转
16:11 - 16:17
EN: It’s a Higher High minor reversal, so it probably will lead to
ZH: 高点抬高的小反转，变成震荡区间，而不是下降趋势
16:15 - 16:17
EN: a Trading Range instead of a bear trend.
ZH: 高点抬高的小反转，变成震荡区间，而不是下降趋势
16:23 - 16:27
EN: You can say the bear trend began here – and it did.
ZH: 你可以说下降趋势是从这里开始的——确实是
16:27 - 16:30
EN: That’s always the case when you have a successful Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 大反转经常会出现这种情况
16:30 - 16:33
EN: The swing down begins at the head.
ZH: 下跌的波段是从“头”开始的
16:33 - 16:38
EN: However, it did not clearly become bearish
ZH: 然而，直到这根大阴线，和这根K线下跌之前， 下降趋势并不明显
16:36 - 16:38
EN: until we got this bear bar and then this big bar.
ZH: 然而，直到这根大阴线，和这根K线下跌之前， 下降趋势并不明显
16:38 - 16:44
EN: It closed at its high, but it still was a selloff
ZH: 它最后又收上去了，但两根K线从最高到最低的跌幅仍然是很大的
16:41 - 16:44
EN: from this high to that low in just 2 bars.
ZH: 它最后又收上去了，但两根K线从最高到最低的跌幅仍然是很大的
16:44 - 16:45
EN: That’s a big selloff.
ZH: 是突然的大跌
16:45 - 16:48
EN: This is where it clearly became bearish.
ZH: 这是市场变得明显看跌的地方
16:54 - 16:58
EN: This is a reasonable swing short, looking for a couple legs down.
ZH: 这是合理的波段做空机会，押注几段下跌
16:58 - 17:00
EN: This might be two legs down – one, pullback, two.
ZH: 可能是两段下跌——1，反弹，2
17:00 - 17:08
EN: The channel is so tight, a lot of traders would view this as the first leg.
ZH: 通道很窄，所以很多交易者会把它看作是一个整体， 看成是大的第1段下跌
17:05 - 17:08
EN: A complex first leg, but the first leg.
ZH: 通道很窄，所以很多交易者会把它看作是一个整体， 看成是大的第1段下跌
17:08 - 17:11
EN: And is this the second leg? It’s a small second leg.
ZH: 这是第2段下跌吗？很小的第2段
17:11 - 17:12
EN: The market went sideways.
ZH: 市场窄幅横盘
17:12 - 17:15
EN: Most traders would exit somewhere in here.
ZH: 大多数交易者会在这里的某个地方离场
17:22 - 17:28
EN: Again, every Head and Shoulders Top is a Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 再讲一遍，每个头肩顶都是高点降低的大反转
17:28 - 17:34
EN: A lot of the Head and Shoulders Top traders will not be looking
ZH: 做头肩顶反转的交易者，在看到右肩（高点降低）之后 才会入场，
17:31 - 17:34
EN: to sell until they see this rally to a Lower High,
ZH: 做头肩顶反转的交易者，在看到右肩（高点降低）之后 才会入场，
17:34 - 17:36
EN: and then they’ll sell the reversal down.
ZH: 在反转下跌时卖出做空
17:36 - 17:41
EN: And that’s exactly where the Major Trend Reversal traders would sell as well.
ZH: 做大反转的空头也会在那里卖出
17:41 - 17:42
EN: This is not a major reversal.
ZH: 这里并不是大反转
17:42 - 17:46
EN: It turned out that it was the high of a bear trend,
ZH: 尽管它最后确实是整个下降趋势的起跌点
17:46 - 17:48
EN: but this was a major reversal.
ZH: 但这里才是真正的大反转
17:48 - 17:54
EN: This is a minor reversal leading to a Trading Range, and then this Lower High
ZH: 这里只是小反转，进入震荡区间，
17:54 - 17:59
EN: is a major reversal setup that led to a strong reversal down.
ZH: 然后高点降低，这才是大反转的做空机会， 导致市场剧烈地反转下跌
18:03 - 18:06
EN: Most Head and Shoulders reversals are minor,
ZH: 大部分头肩结构是小反转
Slide 009
Time: 18:05
Bilingual Transcript
No transcript segment aligned to this slide.
Slide 010
Time: 18:08
Bilingual Transcript
18:10 - 18:13
EN: and they lead to Trading Ranges instead of opposite trends.
ZH: 之后会继续震荡，而不是变成相反的趋势
18:13 - 18:18
EN: And Head and Shoulders patterns are common if you know what to look for.
ZH: 如果刻意去寻找的话，头肩结构是很常见的
18:20 - 18:23
EN: Here are hundreds and hundreds of bars on this chart,
ZH: 这个K线图上有成百上千根K线
18:23 - 18:26
EN: and the chart contains many Head and Shoulders patterns.
ZH: 其中包含了很多头肩结构
18:26 - 18:33
EN: If you look at the chart and try to find them, and you look hard
ZH: 如果你在图上仔细寻找的话，你会发现它们到处都是
18:30 - 18:33
EN: and you know what to look for, they’re all over the place.
ZH: 如果你在图上仔细寻找的话，你会发现它们到处都是
18:35 - 18:39
EN: Small Head and Shoulders Top, small Head and Shoulders Bottom
ZH: 小头肩顶，小头肩底
18:39 - 18:41
EN: - left shoulder, head, right shoulder.
ZH: 左肩，头，右肩
18:41 - 18:42
EN: Left shoulder, head, right shoulder.
ZH: 左肩，头，右肩
18:42 - 18:44
EN: Left shoulder, head, right shoulder.
ZH: 左肩，头，右肩
18:44 - 18:47
EN: And then you’ve got nested patterns.
ZH: 然后还有嵌套式的结构
18:47 - 18:50
EN: You’ve got a big left shoulder, head, right shoulder,
ZH: 这里是一个大的左肩，头，右肩
18:50 - 18:52
EN: and within it there are smaller Head and Shoulders Tops.
ZH: 其中包含了更小的头肩顶
18:52 - 18:56
EN: You’ve got a big left shoulder, a big head,
ZH: 大的左肩，一个大的头
18:56 - 18:58
EN: and then possibly a right shoulder here.
ZH: 然后这里可能会形成右肩
18:59 - 19:02
EN: Did all of these reversals lead to major reversals?
ZH: 这些头肩结构都造成大反转了吗？
19:02 - 19:04
EN: No, they just led to more sideways trading.
ZH: 没有，很多只是横盘震荡
19:04 - 19:09
EN: Most Head and Shoulders patterns are minor reversals
ZH: 大部分头肩结构都是小反转，继续震荡
19:07 - 19:09
EN: and they lead to Trading Ranges.
ZH: 大部分头肩结构都是小反转，继续震荡
19:11 - 19:16
EN: On a smaller timeframe chart, any of these reversals can be major,
ZH: 在小时间周期上，这些可能是大反转
19:16 - 19:23
EN: and if you sell this Head and Shoulders Top, the move is big relative
ZH: 如果你在这个头肩顶卖出做空， 相对于左边的结构和K线大小，这段下跌还是比较大的
19:20 - 19:23
EN: to the size of the pattern and the bars to the left.
ZH: 如果你在这个头肩顶卖出做空， 相对于左边的结构和K线大小，这段下跌还是比较大的
19:23 - 19:26
EN: A lot of these are major on a smaller timeframe chart.
ZH: 在小时间周期上，很多大反转
19:26 - 19:29
EN: On this chart, they’re all minor.
ZH: 但是在这个时间周期，基本都是小反转
19:30 - 19:34
EN: On this chart, you’re scalping them if you’re trading them at all.
ZH: 在这张图上，如果你按照头肩结构去做， 你只能做剥头皮交易
Slide 011
Time: 19:40
Bilingual Transcript
19:40 - 19:44
EN: As I said, you’ve got a Head and Shoulders Top here.
ZH: 比如这里有一个头肩顶
19:44 - 19:48
EN: Unless there’s a break beyond a major channel,
ZH: 除非一个重要的通道被跌破，
19:48 - 19:50
EN: the reversals are going to be minor.
ZH: 不然就只是小反转
19:51 - 19:56
EN: If the market’s still within the channel and you’re getting
ZH: 如果市场处于通道内，然后你看到一个头肩结构，
19:54 - 19:58
EN: a Head and Shoulders pattern, it’s probably going to be minor and the trade
ZH: 如果市场处于通道内，然后你看到一个头肩结构， 那大概率只是小反转
19:58 - 20:01
EN: will probably not break below the channel or break above the channel.
ZH: 大概率很难反向突破通道
20:07 - 20:11
EN: We have a bear trend, a pretty good rally, and then another strong breakout.
ZH: 降趋势，非常大的反弹，然后又一次向上突破
20:11 - 20:16
EN: Any reversal – buying here, here, here, here – they’re all minor.
ZH: 任何反转尝试——在这里、这里、这里、这里买入—— 都是小反转
20:16 - 20:20
EN: Until the bulls have a very strong rally and can demonstrate
ZH: 直到多头制造了非常强势的突破，
20:20 - 20:23
EN: that they have the ability to take control of the market,
ZH: 证明他们有能力控制市场之前，
20:23 - 20:26
EN: any of the reversals prior to that are minor.
ZH: 所有的反转尝试都只是小反转
20:26 - 20:35
EN: If you’re looking to buy a major reversal, if you want a chance of a reversal
ZH: 如果你想买入做大反转，如果你想押注下降趋势变成上涨趋势，
20:31 - 20:35
EN: from a bear trend to a bull trend, you usually have to wait
ZH: 如果你想买入做大反转，如果你想押注下降趋势变成上涨趋势，
20:35 - 20:37
EN: until there’s some evidence that the bulls are strong.
ZH: 最好要等待多头变强的信号出现
20:40 - 20:44
EN: You need a breakout, a strong breakout, preferably above the bear trend line.
ZH: 你需要看到强势的多头突破，突破下降趋势线
20:47 - 20:50
EN: And bulls will buy the reversal up from this Higher Low
ZH: 然后当价格从这个抬高的低点，或者这个双底，
20:50 - 20:52
EN: or from this Double Bottom Higher Low.
ZH: 反转上涨的时候，多头会买入做多
20:53 - 20:55
EN: It’s a Double Bottom and it’s a Higher Low.
ZH: 这里是一个双底，而且低点抬高了
20:55 - 20:59
EN: Here’s the low of the bear trend, and we have a Double Bottom Higher Low.
ZH: 这是下降趋势的最低点， 然后低点抬高，并且有双底结构
Slide 012
Time: 21:03
Bilingual Transcript
21:06 - 21:10
EN: Within this rally there are many Head and Shoulders Tops.
ZH: 在这段上涨过程中，有很多头肩顶（的反转尝试）
21:10 - 21:11
EN: Left shoulder, head, right shoulder.
ZH: 左肩，头，右肩
21:11 - 21:13
EN: Left shoulder, head, right shoulder,
ZH: 左肩，头，右肩
21:13 - 21:17
EN: and then a smaller left shoulder, head, right shoulder.
ZH: 这里还有一个小的左肩，头，右肩
21:17 - 21:19
EN: All of them are minor.
ZH: 这些全都是小反转
21:19 - 21:22
EN: Unless you break below the bottom of the bull channel,
ZH: 除非强势跌破上涨趋势线
21:22 - 21:28
EN: any reversal is probably going to be a minor reversal
ZH: 否则这些都只是小反转，只是回测通道趋势线
21:26 - 21:28
EN: that will simply test the bottom of the channel.
ZH: 否则这些都只是小反转，只是回测通道趋势线
21:28 - 21:31
EN: You need some evidence that the bears are strong.
ZH: 你需要看到空头强势的证据（才能做空）
21:31 - 21:34
EN: You need a break below the bull trend.
ZH: 需要强势跌破上涨趋势线
21:35 - 21:38
EN: Here, the market broke below the bull channel.
ZH: 这里上涨趋势线被跌破了
21:38 - 21:39
EN: I have the trend line drawn here.
ZH: 我在这里画了一条趋势线
21:39 - 21:45
EN: I could have drawn it here as well, and this could be the start of the break.
ZH: 我也可以这样画，那么这里跌破的位置
21:45 - 21:45
EN: It doesn’t matter.
ZH: 没有太大区别
21:45 - 21:49
EN: We clearly are breaking below the bull channel.
ZH: 重要的是上涨通道被明显跌破了
21:51 - 21:55
EN: Traders want to see what happens once the bulls try to resume the trend.
ZH: 交易者会观察，多头恢复上涨趋势之后会发生什么
21:55 - 22:00
EN: Will the bulls be successful, or will they fail around the prior high?
ZH: 会成功地继续上涨？还是在前期高点附近再次失败？
22:04 - 22:06
EN: And they’ll look to sell a reversal down.
ZH: 然后他们会在反转下跌时卖出做空
22:07 - 22:12
EN: They could sell below these bars, probably buy back their shorts here.
ZH: 一些人会在这里做空，然后在这里平仓，因为这可能是双底牛旗 （注：对空头来说，有恢复上涨趋势的风险）
22:11 - 22:16
EN: We have a Double Bottom bull flag, and then another failure up here.
ZH: 一些人会在这里做空，然后在这里平仓，因为这可能是双底牛旗 （注：对空头来说，有恢复上涨趋势的风险） 多头在这里再次失败，空头卖出做空
22:15 - 22:16
EN: They’ll sell below there.
ZH: 多头在这里再次失败，空头卖出做空
22:16 - 22:19
EN: Then another Double Top here.
ZH: 又有一个双顶，空头卖出做空
22:18 - 22:19
EN: They’ll sell below here.
ZH: 又有一个双顶，空头卖出做空
22:19 - 22:23
EN: A lot of times when you’re taking Major Trend Reversal trades,
ZH: 当你在做大反转的时候，
22:23 - 22:27
EN: the first entry does not go far, and you end up scalping out.
ZH: 第1次反转通常不会走很远，最终你只是剥头皮离场
22:27 - 22:30
EN: However, if you’re willing to continue to try,
ZH: 然而，如果你愿意继续尝试，
22:30 - 22:32
EN: eventually you can get a pretty good swing trade.
ZH: 最终有机会得到一笔非常好的波段交易
Slide 013
Time: 22:35
Bilingual Transcript
22:38 - 22:41
EN: Again, you need a strong break below the trend line.
ZH: 再次强调，空头需要强势跌破上涨趋势线
22:41 - 22:46
EN: Here, I can draw a trend line using this low and those lows.
ZH: 这里我可以连接这个低点和那些低点画趋势线
22:46 - 22:52
EN: I can create a parallel channel and create a line.
ZH: 或者创建平行通道，把上沿的平行线移动到下沿
22:50 - 22:52
EN: I can draw a trend line like this.
ZH: 或者创建平行通道，把上沿的平行线移动到下沿
22:52 - 22:57
EN: In any case, this line looks like it’s capturing
ZH: 不管怎么画线，这条线已经捕捉到了市场的意图
22:56 - 23:00
EN: most of what the market is trying to do, and this might be an outlier.
ZH: 不管怎么画线，这条线已经捕捉到了市场的意图 尽管这里有一个“凸刺”
23:00 - 23:03
EN: We’ve got a very strong reversal down here.
ZH: 这里市场非常强势地反转下跌
23:03 - 23:06
EN: The bull trend might be transitioning into a Trading Range.
ZH: 说明上涨趋势可能正在转变为震荡区间
23:06 - 23:12
EN: This strong selloff fell below any bull trend line that I would draw,
ZH: 不管怎么画趋势线，都被它跌破了
23:12 - 23:15
EN: and it also is starting to fall below these lows.
ZH: 而且它跌到了前期这些低点的下方
23:15 - 23:19
EN: And therefore, if the market tries to resume back up,
ZH: 所以如果市场再次上涨，
23:19 - 23:23
EN: traders will look to sell a reversal down.
ZH: 交易者会在前期高点附近卖出做空
23:27 - 23:29
EN: Different ways to call this left shoulder
ZH: 左肩有不同的选择 （注：其实左肩根本不重要）
23:29 - 23:33
EN: - you can call it a left shoulder here, you can call this a left shoulder,
ZH: 你可以说这个是左肩， 或者这个大的整体是左肩，
23:33 - 23:35
EN: subdividing into a Head and Shoulders Top.
ZH: 细分成较小的头肩顶
23:35 - 23:37
EN: You can call this whole thing the head.
ZH: 你可以把这整个部分看作是“头”
23:37 - 23:39
EN: Doesn’t matter.
ZH: 这不是重点
23:39 - 23:42
EN: You’re getting an attempt to resume the bull trend,
ZH: 重要的是，多头尝试恢复上涨趋势
23:42 - 23:45
EN: and the bulls keep failing at this general price level.
ZH: 但是一直在这个区域失败
23:48 - 23:53
EN: The bears will look to sell for a swing down once we get a break
ZH: 当上涨趋势线被跌破之后，空头会寻找卖出做空的机会
23:53 - 24:01
EN: below some trend line, and there are different ways to draw the trend line.
ZH: 不管怎么画趋势线，都被跌破了，而且是非常强势的抛售
23:57 - 24:01
EN: Clearly, we’re breaking below, and we have a very strong selloff.
ZH: 不管怎么画趋势线，都被跌破了，而且是非常强势的抛售
24:01 - 24:08
EN: Bears will look to sell a rally, either for a scalp,
ZH: 空头会在反弹时卖出做空， 要么剥头皮，押注震荡区间会继续；
24:05 - 24:08
EN: betting on a continued Trading Range, or for a swing,
ZH: 空头会在反弹时卖出做空， 要么剥头皮，押注震荡区间会继续；
24:08 - 24:13
EN: betting on the first of many Lower Highs and a new bear trend.
ZH: 或者做波段交易，押注之后高点会不断降低，变成下降趋势
24:16 - 24:19
EN: Sell below here, another Lower High here.
ZH: 在这里卖出，或者这里——因为高点再次降低
24:19 - 24:20
EN: We have a Triangle here.
ZH: 这里是一个三角形
24:20 - 24:24
EN: We got a little bear breakout on that gap down, and then a Lower High.
ZH: 跳空下跌，是小的空头突破，并且高点降低
24:24 - 24:26
EN: These are swing entries.
ZH: 这些都是波段交易的做空入场点
24:26 - 24:30
EN: The probability of getting a swing trade, maybe 40%.
ZH: 赚到波段的概率通常是40%
24:31 - 24:34
EN: If you take the entry here or any of these entries,
ZH: 如果你在这里或这些地方入场，
24:34 - 24:37
EN: your stop is probably above here, maybe even above here.
ZH: 止损可以放在这里，或者最高点上方
Slide 014
Time: 24:40
Bilingual Transcript
24:43 - 24:46
EN: Again, you need a strong break below a bull trend line.
ZH: 再次强调，空头需要强势跌破上涨趋势线
24:46 - 24:51
EN: I can redraw the line like this, and we clearly have a strong break
ZH: 如果重新这样画一条线，这里它被强势跌破了
24:51 - 25:00
EN: below the trend line, and therefore, if the bulls get an attempt
ZH: 所以，如果价格反弹上涨，空头会在这里卖出做空
24:54 - 25:00
EN: to resume the trend up, bears will look to sell a reversal down from there.
ZH: 所以，如果价格反弹上涨，空头会在这里卖出做空
25:01 - 25:05
EN: A large Head and Shoulders Top – left shoulder, head, right shoulder.
ZH: 这是一个大的头肩顶——左肩，头，右肩
25:05 - 25:07
EN: We’ve got a bull trend.
ZH: 上涨趋势
25:07 - 25:11
EN: Clearly a break far below the bull trend line.
ZH: 大幅跌破上涨趋势线
25:11 - 25:14
EN: The bulls hope it’s a Double Bottom bull flag,
ZH: 多头希望这是一个双底牛旗
25:14 - 25:16
EN: and they want the bull trend to resume.
ZH: 他们希望上涨趋势恢复
25:16 - 25:20
EN: Bears will look to sell a reversal down from a Lower High.
ZH: 而空头会在降低的高点卖出做空
25:25 - 25:30
EN: The bears see this rally as a pullback
ZH: 空头把它看作是跌破下降趋势线后的反弹
25:28 - 25:30
EN: from the breakout below the bull trend line.
ZH: 空头把它看作是跌破下降趋势线后的反弹
25:30 - 25:34
EN: The bulls see this as a Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 多头把它看作是双底牛旗
25:36 - 25:41
EN: And again, left shoulder, head, strong break below the trend line
ZH: 大的左肩，头，强势跌破趋势线，
25:41 - 25:49
EN: after the selloff from the head, and therefore traders will look
ZH: 所以交易者会在反弹时卖出做空， 把它看作是高点降低的大反转结构（头-右肩）
25:45 - 25:49
EN: to sell the rally as a Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 所以交易者会在反弹时卖出做空， 把它看作是高点降低的大反转结构（头-右肩）
25:49 - 25:54
EN: Since there’s also a left shoulder,
ZH: 因为这里有左肩，所以也可以说它是头肩顶 （注：有没有左肩根本无所谓，重要的是跌破、高点降低）
25:51 - 25:54
EN: you can call it a Head and Shoulders Top as well.
ZH: 因为这里有左肩，所以也可以说它是头肩顶 （注：有没有左肩根本无所谓，重要的是跌破、高点降低）
25:59 - 26:01
EN: Traders might sell this.
ZH: 空头会在这里做空
26:01 - 26:04
EN: They might decide this rally is too steep;
ZH: 如果他们认为这段反弹太陡峭了，
26:04 - 26:06
EN: they might wait for a second entry sell.
ZH: 他们可能会等待第2做空入场点
26:06 - 26:10
EN: But bears will be looking for this rally to fail and form a Lower High.
ZH: 总之，空头希望反弹失败，形成更低的高点
Slide 015
Time: 26:15
Bilingual Transcript
26:17 - 26:22
EN: Whenever there’s a Major Trend Reversal, there usually are many reasons to sell,
ZH: 每当遇到顶部大反转的机会， 通常都会有很多做空的理由
26:22 - 26:27
EN: and the more reasons that you see, the more computers will be taking the sell
ZH: 你能看到的理由越多，做空的电脑程序就越多，
26:27 - 26:31
EN: - and that means it’s a higher probability that you’ll get a swing down.
ZH: 这意味着出现下跌波段的概率就越高
26:36 - 26:41
EN: We have a Wedge Top – three pushes up – and it’s around a Measured Move up.
ZH: 楔形顶，3次向上的推动； 同时这里有MM目标位
26:41 - 26:43
EN: The bears have a Double Top bear flag,
ZH: 这是空头的双顶熊旗
26:43 - 26:46
EN: but we got a bull breakout and a Measured Move up.
ZH: 但是向上突破，MM目标位在这里
26:48 - 26:52
EN: We have a failed breakout above the top of a channel.
ZH: 尝试向上突破上涨通道，失败
26:52 - 26:56
EN: 75% chance you’ll get a reversal down to the bottom of the channel.
ZH: 75%的概率至少会跌回到通道的下沿
27:04 - 27:09
EN: Traders will start to look to sell – sell below here, sell below here.
ZH: 交易者开始寻找做空机会——在这里或这里下方卖出
Slide 016
Time: 27:05
Bilingual Transcript
27:09 - 27:10
EN: We have a small Double Top.
ZH: 这里也是一个小双顶
27:10 - 27:13
EN: Now we have a Double Top bear flag, sell below here.
ZH: 然后是双顶熊旗，所以在这里做空
27:13 - 27:15
EN: Another Double Top, sell below here.
ZH: 又有一个双顶，在这里卖出
27:15 - 27:19
EN: You can call it a Triangle, and then another Lower High here as well.
ZH: 你可以说它是三角形； 高点再次降低，卖出做空
27:23 - 27:30
EN: After a strong leg down like this, the bears are betting
ZH: 在这样一段下跌之后，空头押注会有第2段下跌， 也许跌到某个MM目标位
27:27 - 27:30
EN: that they’ll get a second leg down to some kind of a Measured Move.
ZH: 在这样一段下跌之后，空头押注会有第2段下跌， 也许跌到某个MM目标位
27:30 - 27:32
EN: Maybe Leg 1, pullback, Leg 2.
ZH: 比如1，反弹，2（注：第1段 = 第2段的MM）
27:32 - 27:38
EN: Maybe we’ll break below the neckline
ZH: 也可能跌破颈线，把整个震荡区间的高度往下翻一倍
27:34 - 27:38
EN: of this Double Bottom for a Measured Move down.
ZH: 也可能跌破颈线，把整个震荡区间的高度往下翻一倍
27:38 - 27:40
EN: Head and Shoulders Top.
ZH: 头肩顶
27:40 - 27:43
EN: Left shoulder, head, right shoulder.
ZH: 左肩，头，右肩
27:43 - 27:45
EN: All of these are right shoulders.
ZH: 这些都是右肩
27:45 - 27:48
EN: Maybe we’ll break below the neckline and fall for a Measured Move down.
ZH: 空头希望跌破颈线，然后跌到下方的MM目标位
27:48 - 27:50
EN: The bears are now starting to sell.
ZH: 所以空头开始卖出做空
27:50 - 27:55
EN: The probability of these shorts leading to a swing trade? Maybe 40%.
ZH: 成功获得波段下跌的概率是多少？可能只有40%
27:55 - 28:02
EN: But the reward is much bigger than the risk,
ZH: 但回报远大于风险，可以轻松弥补概率的劣势
27:58 - 28:02
EN: and that more than makes up for the low probability.
ZH: 但回报远大于风险，可以轻松弥补概率的劣势
28:04 - 28:08
EN: Leg 1 and then pullback, Leg 2.
ZH: 第1段，反弹，第2段
28:08 - 28:10
EN: It fell for a little bit more than that.
ZH: 略微多跌了一些
28:12 - 28:16
EN: Most reversal patterns, including Head and Shoulders Tops,
ZH: 大多数的反转结构，包括头肩顶，
28:16 - 28:22
EN: even when they’re successful, usually become big Trading Ranges
ZH: 即使成功，通常会变成大震荡区间，而不是相反的趋势
28:20 - 28:22
EN: instead of opposite trends.
ZH: 即使成功，通常会变成大震荡区间，而不是相反的趋势
28:22 - 28:23
EN: We have two legs down.
ZH: 两段下跌
28:23 - 28:26
EN: If you want to call it a bear trend, you can.
ZH: 你可以说它是下降趋势
28:26 - 28:28
EN: I would call it simply a swing down,
ZH: 但是我会把它看作是下跌的波段
28:28 - 28:31
EN: and the whole thing is part of a Trading Range.
ZH: 并且把整张图看作是大震荡区间
28:32 - 28:39
EN: However, even though most Major Trend Reversals,
ZH: 然而，就算大多数反转结构，包括头肩， 只是导致更大的震荡区间，
28:35 - 28:39
EN: including Head and Shoulders Tops, result in Trading Ranges,
ZH: 然而，就算大多数反转结构，包括头肩， 只是导致更大的震荡区间，
28:39 - 28:47
EN: 40% of them result in a move that is a swing trade,
ZH: 40%的时候，波段足够大， 利润至少是风险的两倍
28:44 - 28:47
EN: which means a reward at least twice as big as the risk,
ZH: 40%的时候，波段足够大， 利润至少是风险的两倍
28:47 - 28:51
EN: and two legs and 10 or more bars.
ZH: 并且至少是两段10K
Slide 017
Time: 28:55
Bilingual Transcript
28:56 - 29:02
EN: I began by making the point that every Head and Shoulders pattern
ZH: 这节课我先讲了，每个头肩结构都是大反转结构
29:00 - 29:02
EN: is a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 这节课我先讲了，每个头肩结构都是大反转结构
29:02 - 29:05
EN: Not all Major Trend Reversals are Head and Shoulders patterns,
ZH: 但并不是所有的大反转结构都是头肩形
29:05 - 29:07
EN: because not all have a left shoulder.
ZH: 因为不一定有左肩 （注：所以左肩不重要，重要的是后面）
29:09 - 29:16
EN: Most head and shoulder reversal patterns are minor.
ZH: 大多数头肩反转只是小反转，不足以形成相反的趋势，
29:12 - 29:16
EN: They’re too small to lead to a reversal of the trend;
ZH: 大多数头肩反转只是小反转，不足以形成相反的趋势，
29:16 - 29:20
EN: they instead lead to either a Trading Range or a pullback in the trend.
ZH: 只是震荡区间，或者趋势中的回调或反弹
29:24 - 29:25
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
29:25 - 29:28
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
29:28 - 29:31
EN: This is the first of two videos on Head and Shoulders patterns.
ZH: 头肩结构的第1节课，就先讲到这里