al-brooks-course
45D - Trading Broad Bull Channels
Raw transcript and slide notes for 45D - Trading Broad Bull Channels.
Overview
- Slides: 23
- Transcript segments: 678
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:09
EN: This is the fourth of five videos on trading Broad Bull Channels.
ZH: 这是如何交易宽上涨通道的第4节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:11
Bilingual Transcript
00:13 - 00:18
EN: Every bull trend needs a series of major Higher Highs and Lows.
ZH: 每个上涨趋势都需要低点和高点不断抬高
00:18 - 00:21
EN: The major Higher Lows are very important.
ZH: 其中重要的低点是关键
00:22 - 00:25
EN: A Broad Channel is very similar to a Trading Range,
ZH: 宽通道和震荡区间很类似
00:25 - 00:27
EN: and it has a lot of Trading Range price action in it.
ZH: 并且往往包含了很多震荡的价格行为
00:27 - 00:31
EN: Like in a Trading Range, the market often has a 2nd Leg Trap
ZH: 和震荡区间一样，宽通道里经常会有第2段陷阱
00:31 - 00:34
EN: - a strong second leg that looks like it’s about to break out,
ZH: ——第2段看起来非常强势，好像要突破了
00:34 - 00:39
EN: but it traps traders into a breakout trade and then it reverses.
ZH: 但它会把交易者套牢，然后迅速反转
00:40 - 00:49
EN: Because a Broad Bull Channel is basically a Trading Range
ZH: 因为宽上涨通道基本上就是一个略微向上倾斜的震荡区间， 所以空头会在创新高的时候做空，并且逢高加仓
00:43 - 00:49
EN: that’s sloped somewhat up, bears will often sell new highs and scale in higher.
ZH: 因为宽上涨通道基本上就是一个略微向上倾斜的震荡区间， 所以空头会在创新高的时候做空，并且逢高加仓
00:50 - 00:53
EN: Likewise, the bulls sell at new highs as well.
ZH: 同样，多头也会在新高卖出
00:53 - 00:54
EN: They sell to take profits.
ZH: 多头卖出止盈
Slide 002
Time: 00:56
Bilingual Transcript
01:02 - 01:05
EN: A lot of traders do not like to take a lot of trades.
ZH: 很多交易者不喜欢频繁地交易
01:05 - 01:08
EN: They don’t like to get in and then get out, and then get in again
ZH: 他们不喜欢反复地买进、卖出、再买进、再卖出…
01:08 - 01:12
EN: and get out again, and they’re afraid
ZH: 而且他们担心自己错过大的趋势
01:10 - 01:12
EN: that they’ll sometimes miss a big swing trade.
ZH: 而且他们担心自己错过大的趋势
01:12 - 01:15
EN: For example, let’s say a bull bought this reversal.
ZH: 例如，假设一个多头在这里反转上涨时买入
01:16 - 01:17
EN: You can call it a Wedge Bottom,
ZH: 可以把它看作是一个楔形底
01:17 - 01:21
EN: small Wedge Bottom with a decent bull bar and a lot of good bull bars here.
ZH: 小的楔形底，有很不错的做多信号K， 之前这里也有很多阳线（注：买压大）
01:25 - 01:30
EN: Now we have 5 consecutive bear bars closing near their lows
ZH: 这里出现了连续5根阴线收在低位，体积也蛮大的
01:29 - 01:30
EN: with decent size bodies.
ZH: 这里出现了连续5根阴线收在低位，体积也蛮大的
01:30 - 01:33
EN: However, it’s still above the bottom of the bull leg.
ZH: 然而，目前仍然高于上涨波段的起涨点
01:33 - 01:35
EN: Should bulls get out?
ZH: 多头应该离场吗？
01:35 - 01:37
EN: Well, some bulls will simply rely on their stop,
ZH: 一些多头会依赖他们的初始止损，
01:37 - 01:39
EN: and as long as their stop does not get hit,
ZH: 只要止损不被打到
01:39 - 01:43
EN: and as long as the market does not clearly become bearish,
ZH: 只要市场没有明显进入下降趋势
01:43 - 01:47
EN: they’ll hold long despite 5 bear bars closing on their lows like that.
ZH: 他们就会继续持有——尽管有5根阴线收在低位
01:51 - 01:53
EN: A lot of traders will look at this and say,
ZH: 很多多头会说：
01:53 - 01:55
EN: “Yeah, it’s a pretty big reversal down”,
ZH: “确实，反转下跌了非常多”
01:55 - 01:58
EN: but we did not have even a Micro Double Top up here,
ZH: 但之前这里连一个小双顶都没有
01:58 - 02:03
EN: and therefore the bulls who bought the close here
ZH: 所以之前在这个收盘价买入的多头， 至少有机会打平离场
02:01 - 02:03
EN: should be able to get out breakeven.
ZH: 所以之前在这个收盘价买入的多头， 至少有机会打平离场
02:03 - 02:05
EN: The market should get back up to that close.
ZH: 市场应该会涨回到那个收盘价
02:05 - 02:09
EN: Therefore, even though we have 7 bars down, 5 good bear bars,
ZH: 因此，尽管下跌了7根K线，其中5根是不错的阴线
02:09 - 02:13
EN: it did not fall below the bottom of the bull trend and we might get a Higher Low.
ZH: 但目前还没有跌破起涨点，低点可能会抬高
02:13 - 02:16
EN: We have a reversal up here, which is good for the bulls.
ZH: 开始反转上涨，有利于多头
02:21 - 02:25
EN: Suppose a trader bought here and he was willing to sit through pullbacks like that.
ZH: 假设一个交易者在这里买入，并且愿意在这样的回调中坚定持有
02:25 - 02:27
EN: At some point he has to get out.
ZH: 但到了某个时候，他必须离场
02:27 - 02:29
EN: For example, if he did not get out up here,
ZH: 例如，假设它没有在这里及时离场
02:29 - 02:32
EN: now late in the day he has a bear breakout and follow-through.
ZH: 现在即将收盘，大阴线跌破，并且有好的跟随
02:33 - 02:36
EN: The market’s clearly bearish and unlikely to go back up.
ZH: 市场显然在下跌，而且反转上涨的概率非常小了
02:36 - 02:38
EN: Probably will go a little bit more down.
ZH: 大概率至少还会再下跌一些
02:38 - 02:40
EN: Not much time left to the day.
ZH: 剩余的时间不多了
02:40 - 02:41
EN: He will get out.
ZH: 多头需要离场
02:41 - 02:43
EN: He gave up a lot of his profit.
ZH: 他的利润回撤了很多
02:43 - 02:45
EN: He bought here, he sold here.
ZH: 他在这里买入，在这里卖出
02:45 - 02:49
EN: He had more profit had he exited there, but some traders do not like
ZH: 如果在这里就离场，能保留更多的利润， 但有些交易者不喜欢反复入场、离场，
02:48 - 02:56
EN: to keep getting out and buying again because a lot of times if they get out,
ZH: 如果在这里就离场，能保留更多的利润， 但有些交易者不喜欢反复入场、离场， 因为很多时候他们提前离场了， 然后觉得没有好的机会，未能再次入场导致错过趋势
02:52 - 02:56
EN: the buy setups never look good enough and they never get back in.
ZH: 因为很多时候他们提前离场了， 然后觉得没有好的机会，未能再次入场导致错过趋势
Slide 003
Time: 03:00
Bilingual Transcript
03:04 - 03:09
EN: If a person is going to hold long and use a swing stop,
ZH: 如果多头愿意长期持有，使用波段交易的止损
03:09 - 03:13
EN: he’ll trail his stop up below every major Higher Low.
ZH: 他可以用追踪止损——把止损移动到新的重要低点下方
03:13 - 03:20
EN: A major Higher Low is a Higher Low that has a strong reversal up,
ZH: 如果低点抬高，并且强势突破（最好要创新高）， 那么它就是重要的低点
03:17 - 03:20
EN: usually to a new high but not necessarily.
ZH: 如果低点抬高，并且强势突破（最好要创新高）， 那么它就是重要的低点
03:20 - 03:24
EN: The bulls at that point, once he sees this or this,
ZH: 一旦看到这个，或这个
03:24 - 03:28
EN: will decide that he no longer needs to keep his stop down here.
ZH: 多头就知道自己没有必要再把止损保留在这么下面
03:28 - 03:29
EN: He can put his stop here.
ZH: 他可以把止损抬高上来
03:29 - 03:32
EN: Then after he sees a strong breakout here to a new high,
ZH: 在他看到价格再次强势突破创新高之后，
03:32 - 03:37
EN: he’ll trail his stop up from there to below here or below here.
ZH: 他可以再次把止损从那里抬高到它或者它的下方
03:40 - 03:43
EN: Strong breakout to a new high.
ZH: 强势突破创新高
03:43 - 03:45
EN: Bulls will trail their stops.
ZH: 多头继续追踪止损
03:45 - 03:50
EN: I would use my stop either at the bottom of this bull breakout,
ZH: 我会把止损放在这段突破的起涨点下方， 或者放在整个上涨波段的起涨点下方
03:48 - 03:50
EN: or the bottom of the bull leg.
ZH: 我会把止损放在这段突破的起涨点下方， 或者放在整个上涨波段的起涨点下方
03:50 - 03:54
EN: Sometimes it’ll drop below the bull breakout, but not below the bull leg.
ZH: 有时候回调会低于突破的起涨点， 但不会跌破整个波段的起涨点
03:54 - 03:58
EN: Either one of these two places is a reasonable location for a stop.
ZH: 这两个止损的位置都是合理的
04:02 - 04:04
EN: Strong breakout above a bear channel.
ZH: 强势突破下降通道
04:04 - 04:06
EN: Pretty good bull bars here, here, and here.
ZH: 这里，这里，这里，都是很不错的阳线
04:06 - 04:10
EN: At this point a lot of traders will raise their stop to below this low.
ZH: 此时，多头会把止损抬高到这个低点下方
04:10 - 04:13
EN: They’ll consider it a major Higher Low.
ZH: 他们认为它是新的重要低点
04:13 - 04:15
EN: If they’re right that it’s a bull trend,
ZH: 如果上涨趋势的前提仍然成立
04:15 - 04:18
EN: it should not fall below the major Higher Low.
ZH: 重要的低点就不应该被跌破
04:18 - 04:20
EN: On the other hand, if it does fall below that major Higher Low,
ZH: 如果那个重要的低点真的被跌破了
04:20 - 04:23
EN: then it’s probably no longer a bull trend.
ZH: 那么市场很可能已经不再处于上涨趋势
04:23 - 04:26
EN: It then probably is a Trading Range and possibly even a bear trend
ZH: 要么是震荡区间，甚至已经变成下降趋势
04:27 - 04:29
EN: - in which case they don’t want to be holding long.
ZH: 在这种情况下，多头不想再继续持有
04:33 - 04:34
EN: Another strong breakout.
ZH: 再次强势突破
04:34 - 04:38
EN: By the close of this bar we have 2 good size bull bars and a new high.
ZH: 在它收盘之后，已经有了两根大阳线，而且涨到了新高
04:38 - 04:41
EN: Traders will trail their stop to below the bottom of the breakout
ZH: 多头会把止损抬高到起涨点的下方
04:41 - 04:45
EN: or below the bottom of this swing up, or possibly down here.
ZH: 或者放在这个波段的起涨点下方，也可以放在这里
04:50 - 04:54
EN: Again, as long as the market’s making major Higher Lows,
ZH: 再讲一遍，只要重要的低点不断抬高
04:54 - 04:56
EN: then it’s still in a bull trend.
ZH: 上涨趋势就仍然完好
05:03 - 05:06
EN: Most traders are not going to let their stops get hit.
ZH: 大部分交易者不会让保护性止损真的被打到
05:06 - 05:10
EN: Stops are to protect against catastrophe, and if a trader thinks
ZH: 保护性止损的目的是防止意外灾难
05:10 - 05:11
EN: that the premise is no longer valid,
ZH: 如果交易员认为前提不再成立，
05:11 - 05:14
EN: or if they think there’s a reasonable opposite signal,
ZH: 或者出现了合理的反转信号
05:14 - 05:16
EN: they’ll get out before their stop gets hit.
ZH: 他们会在止损被打到前提前离场
05:16 - 05:19
EN: For example, some traders will look at this and say it’s a Triangle,
ZH: 例如，一些交易者看到了这个三角形牛旗
05:19 - 05:22
EN: it’s a big Buy Climax late in a bull trend.
ZH: 然后，上涨趋势持续了很久，再出现这样的抢购高潮
05:22 - 05:24
EN: The Triangle is probably a final bull flag.
ZH: 所以这个三角形很可能是末端牛旗
05:24 - 05:28
EN: Maybe get out below a bear bar, expecting at least a couple legs down.
ZH: 在阴线下方离场是合理的，以防接下来有两段回调
05:28 - 05:31
EN: Maybe an endless channel and possibly even a bear breakout.
ZH: 甚至可能变成无尽的回调，然后向下跌破
05:31 - 05:33
EN: Reasonable to get out up here.
ZH: 多头在这里离场是合理的
05:34 - 05:37
EN: Remember, a Broad Channel is basically a Trading Range.
ZH: 宽通道基本就是震荡区间
05:37 - 05:41
EN: It’s always reasonable to get out of a long near the top of a Trading Range.
ZH: 在震荡区间里，涨到上沿附近时离场总归是合理的
05:42 - 05:45
EN: When you’re in a Broad Bull Channel and you’re fairly high up,
ZH: 同理，在宽上涨通道中，如果已经涨到了通道的上沿
05:45 - 05:48
EN: it’s reasonable to get out as well, especially when it’s getting late in the day.
ZH: 止盈离场也是合理的，尤其已经临近尾盘
05:54 - 05:56
EN: Now, would some bull buy here?
ZH: 会不会有人在这里买入做多？
05:56 - 05:58
EN: Of course.
ZH: 当然有
05:58 - 06:02
EN: The reversal down below a major Higher Low here or here means
ZH: 跌破前期这个重要的起涨点
06:02 - 06:04
EN: that the market’s no longer in a bull trend,
ZH: 说明市场不再处于上涨趋势
06:04 - 06:06
EN: that it’s either in a bear trend or a Trading Range.
ZH: 现在要么是下降趋势，要么是震荡区间
06:06 - 06:13
EN: If it’s in a Trading Range,
ZH: 如果是震荡区间，那么在跌破支撑位的时候买入是合理的， 因为区间中绝大部分的突破都会失败
06:08 - 06:13
EN: it’s reasonable to buy a breakout below any support because most breakouts fail.
ZH: 如果是震荡区间，那么在跌破支撑位的时候买入是合理的， 因为区间中绝大部分的突破都会失败
06:13 - 06:17
EN: A bull scalper might buy there, betting on at least a bounce.
ZH: 一个剥头皮交易者可能会在这里买入，押注至少有一些小反弹
06:17 - 06:18
EN: Would I take that buy?
ZH: 我会在这里做多吗？
06:18 - 06:18
EN: No.
ZH: 不会
06:18 - 06:20
EN: If anything, I would sell.
ZH: 如果一定要交易，我会做空
06:20 - 06:22
EN: We’re attempting to get a bull flag.
ZH: 之前尝试形成牛旗（并恢复上涨）
06:22 - 06:24
EN: Instead we have a bear breakout and follow-through.
ZH: 但（变成了无尽的回调）向下跌破，而且有阴线跟随
06:24 - 06:28
EN: Both bear bars have good size, one closing on its low,
ZH: 两根阴线的体积都不错，其中一根收在最低
06:28 - 06:29
EN: the other closing below its midpoint.
ZH: 另一根也收在一半以下
06:29 - 06:32
EN: The odds are we’ll get at least a second leg down.
ZH: 大概率至少会有第2段下跌
06:32 - 06:34
EN: It makes more sense to look to sell here
ZH: 在这里做空更合理
06:34 - 06:37
EN: or sell below the pullback bar for a second leg down.
ZH: 也可以在反弹K线的下方卖出，押注有第2段下跌
Slide 004
Time: 06:40
Bilingual Transcript
06:44 - 06:45
EN: Strong bull breakout.
ZH: 强势的多头突破
06:46 - 06:48
EN: A series of bull bars closing on their highs.
ZH: 一连串阳线收在最高
06:48 - 06:49
EN: Very little overlap.
ZH: 几乎没有重叠
06:49 - 06:52
EN: The open of this bar is above the close of that bar,
ZH: 这根K线的开盘价高于前一根K线的收盘价
06:52 - 06:56
EN: and the open of this bar is slightly above the close of that bar.
ZH: 这根K线的开盘价略高于前一根K线的收盘价
06:56 - 07:03
EN: The bulls are so eager to buy, as soon as the bar closes a lot of them hit
ZH: 多头非常急切地买入，在K线收盘的瞬间， 很多人就点击“市价买入”，订单在下一根K线的开盘成交
07:00 - 07:03
EN: “Buy the Market” and they get filled on the open of the next bar.
ZH: 多头非常急切地买入，在K线收盘的瞬间， 很多人就点击“市价买入”，订单在下一根K线的开盘成交
07:03 - 07:07
EN: Many bull bars here, so good Buying Pressure here leading up to this breakout.
ZH: 这里有很多阳线，有良好的买压，所以制造了强势的突破
07:07 - 07:12
EN: The market’s clearly Always In Long, probably by the close of this bar.
ZH: 在这根阳线收盘的时候，市场就明显处于单边上涨了
07:17 - 07:22
EN: Whenever traders see a very deep pullback after a strong bull breakout,
ZH: 每当看到强势突破后有非常深的回调，
07:22 - 07:26
EN: they think that the market is probably in a Trading Range.
ZH: 交易者会认为市场大概率处于震荡区间
07:26 - 07:27
EN: It might be in a bear channel.
ZH: 也许是宽下降通道
07:27 - 07:31
EN: We might be getting a series of Lower Highs, Lower Lows.
ZH: 接下来的高点和低点会不断降低
07:31 - 07:33
EN: We might be in a bull channel, Higher Highs and Higher Lows.
ZH: 也可能是宽上涨通道，高点和低点不断抬高
07:33 - 07:38
EN: In general, when you have big up, big down, you have big confusion,
ZH: 通常来说，当看到大涨、大跌时，交易者会感到困惑 （注：对趋势感到失望、困惑）
07:38 - 07:41
EN: and traders tend to buy low, sell high, and scalp.
ZH: 于是倾向于低买、高卖，赚了就走
07:41 - 07:46
EN: Chances are, big up, big down,
ZH: 大涨大跌之后，大概率要横盘至少10根K线
07:43 - 07:46
EN: you’re going to go sideways at least for 10 bars or more.
ZH: 大涨大跌之后，大概率要横盘至少10根K线
07:50 - 07:54
EN: Because a Trading Range is likely, bulls will look to buy a reversal up.
ZH: 因为很可能是震荡区间，所以多头在反转上涨时买入
07:54 - 07:56
EN: They’ll buy here.
ZH: 他们会在这里买入
07:56 - 07:57
EN: Here, we now have a Triangle.
ZH: 现在有一个三角形
07:57 - 08:00
EN: Small Triangle here inside of a bigger Triangle.
ZH: 这个小三角形嵌套在更大的三角形内
08:00 - 08:02
EN: We’re still probably Always In Long,
ZH: 现在大概率仍然是上涨趋势 （注：如果一定要选一个方向交易，做多更好）
08:02 - 08:06
EN: so bulls will buy betting on at least one more leg up.
ZH: 所以多头会押注至少还有一段上涨
08:07 - 08:09
EN: We’re still in a bull trend.
ZH: 市场仍然处于上涨趋势中
08:09 - 08:13
EN: We’re still forming Higher Lows
ZH: 低点和高点仍然在抬高，尤其是重要的低点
08:11 - 08:13
EN: and Higher Highs, especially the Higher Lows,
ZH: 低点和高点仍然在抬高，尤其是重要的低点
08:13 - 08:17
EN: and therefore it’s always reasonable to take the buy signals.
ZH: 所以看到做多信号之后买入是合理的
08:17 - 08:23
EN: Some traders will only take the buy signals as long as it’s in a bull channel,
ZH: 当市场处于上涨通道，低点抬高， 一些交易者就只做多、不做空，这是合理的
08:20 - 08:23
EN: making Higher Lows, and that’s reasonable.
ZH: 当市场处于上涨通道，低点抬高， 一些交易者就只做多、不做空，这是合理的
08:31 - 08:34
EN: Let’s say you bought above the high of this bar and then you’re filled right here.
ZH: 假设你在这根K线的高点上方挂突破买单，然后在这里成交
08:35 - 08:38
EN: Your initial stop is here, but your Actual Risk was only here.
ZH: 你的初始止损在这里，但你的实际风险只到这里
08:38 - 08:41
EN: You buy above the high of this bar, get filled here,
ZH: 你在这根K线的高点上方买入，在这里成交
08:41 - 08:43
EN: the market traded down here and then reversed up.
ZH: 市场先下跌到这里，然后反转上涨
08:43 - 08:51
EN: At this point you know that the most you had to risk was 1 tick
ZH: 上涨之后，你就知道在交易中实际上承担的最大风险就是到这个低点， 这一段就是你的实际风险
08:47 - 08:51
EN: below the low of this bar, so that is your Actual Risk.
ZH: 上涨之后，你就知道在交易中实际上承担的最大风险就是到这个低点， 这一段就是你的实际风险
08:52 - 08:55
EN: You can always exit at two times Actual Risk
ZH: 在两倍实际风险的地方止盈总归是合理的
08:55 - 08:58
EN: and have a positive Trader’s Equation, so it’s reasonable to exit here.
ZH: 而且数学期望为正，所以可以在这里止盈
08:58 - 09:07
EN: However, when you have a pretty strong reversal up and the context is good
ZH: 然而，如果突破非常强势，而且左边的背景有利于波段的形成， 那么最好不要这么快止盈，或者至少保留一部分头寸
09:02 - 09:07
EN: for a swing up, it’s usually better not to exit, or at least not to exit all.
ZH: 然而，如果突破非常强势，而且左边的背景有利于波段的形成， 那么最好不要这么快止盈，或者至少保留一部分头寸
09:08 - 09:11
EN: Minimum scalp size in the Emini is 1 point.
ZH: ES中剥头皮的最小目标是1个点
09:11 - 09:15
EN: Theoretically you could exit at 1 point if you wanted to,
ZH: 理论上你可以赚1个点就离场（注：粉色框框的地方）
09:15 - 09:18
EN: or one times your Actual Risk, which is right here.
ZH: 或者在1倍实际风险处离场
09:18 - 09:20
EN: Probability is high that we’re going up.
ZH: 但继续上涨的概率很大
09:20 - 09:25
EN: However, when there’s a likelihood that we’re going to get a swing up,
ZH: 如果很有可能会有上涨波段
09:25 - 09:28
EN: exiting with the minimum is usually not the best choice.
ZH: 那么在最低目标止盈往往不是最好的选择
09:32 - 09:34
EN: Because it’s still possibly a Trading Range,
ZH: 因为这仍然有可能是震荡区间
09:34 - 09:37
EN: maybe a two-legged move up – one, pullback, two
ZH: ——比如这是第2段陷阱——1，回调，2
09:37 - 09:42
EN: - it’s reasonable to exit on a reversal down, especially after we see this.
ZH: 在反转下跌时离场是合理的，尤其是看到这段下跌之后
09:42 - 09:45
EN: We know the odds are we’re going to have a lot of Trading Range price action
ZH: 你知道很可能会有很多震荡区间的价格行为
09:45 - 09:49
EN: and therefore it’s always reasonable to take profits on a reversal down.
ZH: 因此，在反转下跌时止盈总是合理的
09:50 - 09:52
EN: For example, you could take profits here.
ZH: 比如在这根阴线下方离场
09:52 - 09:55
EN: You could take profits here.
ZH: 在这根阴线下方离场——创新高之后的阴线
09:53 - 09:55
EN: A bear bar and a new high.
ZH: 在这根阴线下方离场——创新高之后的阴线
09:55 - 09:56
EN: We have a Double Top and a bear bar.
ZH: 潜在的双顶，出现了阴线
10:01 - 10:04
EN: I mentioned earlier that it was reasonable for bulls to buy this breakout.
ZH: 我之前提到，多头在向上突破时买入是合理的
10:04 - 10:07
EN: It’s even reasonable to buy closes, including this close.
ZH: 甚至可以买收盘，也包括在它的收盘买入
10:08 - 10:11
EN: The bulls at this point with this bear bar are disappointed,
ZH: 看到这根阴线，多头感到失望
10:11 - 10:15
EN: and a lot of them now have decided that instead of a bull trend,
ZH: 他们现在认为，这也许并不是上涨趋势，而是震荡区间 （注：接受小亏提前离场是合理的）
10:14 - 10:15
EN: maybe it’s a Trading Range.
ZH: 他们现在认为，这也许并不是上涨趋势，而是震荡区间 （注：接受小亏提前离场是合理的）
10:15 - 10:22
EN: However, they’ll still bet that the market will not fall below the low,
ZH: 但他们押注市场不会跌破起涨点，所以会找逢低加仓的机会
10:20 - 10:22
EN: and they’ll look to add on.
ZH: 但他们押注市场不会跌破起涨点，所以会找逢低加仓的机会
10:22 - 10:25
EN: A lot of them will buy more above a bull bar
ZH: 其中很多人会在一根阳线的上方买入加仓
10:25 - 10:30
EN: as long as the second entry is at least two
ZH: 只要它和初始入场点之间至少有两三个点的距离 （注：剥头皮最小目标的两三倍）
10:27 - 10:30
EN: or three times the size of a scalp below the first.
ZH: 只要它和初始入场点之间至少有两三个点的距离 （注：剥头皮最小目标的两三倍）
10:30 - 10:32
EN: They buy here.
ZH: 他们在这里追涨
10:32 - 10:35
EN: They know the odds are high that we’ll get back up here.
ZH: 他们知道涨回来的概率很高
10:35 - 10:44
EN: If you take a reasonable buy – this is a reasonable Buy The Close
ZH: 如果是合理的买入点——在它的收盘买入是合理的， 然后设置合理的止损，并正确地加仓
10:39 - 10:44
EN: - if you take a reasonable buy, and you’re willing to scale in
ZH: 如果是合理的买入点——在它的收盘买入是合理的， 然后设置合理的止损，并正确地加仓
10:42 - 10:46
EN: and use an appropriate stop, the odds are high, maybe 80%,
ZH: 如果是合理的买入点——在它的收盘买入是合理的， 然后设置合理的止损，并正确地加仓 有非常高的概率——80%的概率，
10:46 - 10:50
EN: that you’ll be able to either make a profit or at least avoid a loss.
ZH: 你最终可以赚钱，至少不会亏钱
10:51 - 10:55
EN: You can see what happened when we get up to the high close.
ZH: 可以看到，涨回到那个最高的收盘价之后发生了什么
10:55 - 10:56
EN: We found sellers.
ZH: 有人卖出
10:56 - 10:57
EN: Who sold?
ZH: 谁在卖？
10:57 - 11:01
EN: Well, the bulls who bought here are happy to be able to get out without a loss.
ZH: 之前被套牢的多头，很高兴市场给了他们不亏离场的机会
11:01 - 11:04
EN: Some of them bought more here, and they’re taking profits up there.
ZH: 其中一些人在下方加仓，涨回来的时候止盈
11:04 - 11:08
EN: Then you have other bulls who got out up here and they bought above here,
ZH: 还有一些多头，他们没有在这里追涨， 但是在这根阳线的上方买入了
11:08 - 11:10
EN: betting that we would get back up there.
ZH: 押注市场还会测试前期高点
11:10 - 11:12
EN: The bears know the bulls are doing that,
ZH: 空头知道多头会这么做
11:12 - 11:18
EN: and the bears will sell there as well,
ZH: 他们会在这里卖出做空，押注至少能赚一笔剥头皮交易
11:14 - 11:18
EN: knowing that the bulls are selling and that the bears could make a scalp.
ZH: 他们会在这里卖出做空，押注至少能赚一笔剥头皮交易
11:23 - 11:31
EN: 2nd Leg Traps are common in Trading Ranges, and Broad Channels
ZH: 第2段陷阱在震荡区间中很常见， 而宽通道基本就是略微向上或向下倾斜的震荡区间
Slide 005
Time: 11:25
Bilingual Transcript
11:28 - 11:31
EN: are basically Trading Ranges that are sloped up or down.
ZH: 第2段陷阱在震荡区间中很常见， 而宽通道基本就是略微向上或向下倾斜的震荡区间
11:31 - 11:35
EN: Therefore, 2nd Leg Traps are common in bull channels as well.
ZH: 因此，第2段陷阱在宽上涨通道中也很常见
Slide 006
Time: 11:36
Bilingual Transcript
11:41 - 11:43
EN: We have a Broad Bull Channel.
ZH: 宽上涨通道
11:43 - 11:46
EN: Again, it’s similar to a Trading Range that’s simply sloped up.
ZH: 它就像是一个向上倾斜的震荡区间
11:50 - 11:54
EN: Like a Trading Range, you often have a very strong second leg
ZH: 所以和震荡区间一样，经常会有看起来很强势的第2段，
11:54 - 11:58
EN: that fails to lead to a bull trend and instead reverses,
ZH: 但上涨趋势没有继续，而是反转下跌
11:58 - 12:00
EN: and traps traders into buying high.
ZH: 导致追涨的人都被套牢了
12:06 - 12:07
EN: Strong second leg up.
ZH: 强势的第2段上涨
12:07 - 12:11
EN: So we have Leg 1, pullback into a Triangle, and then a strong second leg up.
ZH: 这是第1段，回调形成三角形牛旗，然后是强势的第2段上涨
12:12 - 12:16
EN: A lot of traders are hoping that this is going to have a second leg up as well.
ZH: 许多交易者希望它也有第2段上涨
12:16 - 12:18
EN: So breakout, they want a second leg up.
ZH: 突破之后的第2段
12:19 - 12:22
EN: However, because the market looks like it’s in a Broad Bull Channel,
ZH: 然而，因为市场看起来像是宽上涨通道
12:22 - 12:26
EN: you have to be careful getting excited when you see a strong second leg up
ZH: 所以在看到强势的第2段上涨时不要太激动
12:26 - 12:30
EN: because very often, instead of a successful breakout, you get a reversal.
ZH: 因为它很可能不是成功的突破，而是会反转
12:30 - 12:34
EN: The strong breakout makes traders believe that the market is starting a trend.
ZH: 看到这样的突破，一些交易者以为要进入更强的上涨趋势了
12:34 - 12:37
EN: We have a Triangle here, we have a Trading Range here.
ZH: 这里是一个三角形、震荡区间
12:38 - 12:40
EN: A lot of traders will look at this and say,
ZH: 一些交易者认为：
12:40 - 12:44
EN: “Okay, we’ll get a pullback and then we’ll channel up and go up much further,
ZH: “好的，回调之后，会进入通道、不断上涨
12:44 - 12:47
EN: maybe for a Measured Move based upon the size of this breakout”.
ZH: 可能会涨到MM目标位——把这段突破的高度往上翻一倍”
12:47 - 12:55
EN: However, whenever the market has a lot of Trading Range price action
ZH: 然而，当市场有很多震荡的价格行为，或是处于宽通道， 如果此时你看到了强势的突破
12:51 - 12:55
EN: or is in a Broad Channel and you see a strong breakout,
ZH: 然而，当市场有很多震荡的价格行为，或是处于宽通道， 如果此时你看到了强势的突破
12:55 - 12:59
EN: you have to be concerned that it might be a 2nd Leg Trap trapping traders
ZH: 你必须要考虑，它会不会是第2段陷阱，
12:59 - 13:03
EN: into buying high when the market is about to reverse.
ZH: 在反转下跌之前诱使交易者在高位追涨
13:06 - 13:09
EN: This is a Buy The Close rally, especially right here,
ZH: 这是买收盘的上涨趋势，尤其是在这里——
13:09 - 13:11
EN: 2 consecutive big bull bars.
ZH: 连续两根大阳线
13:11 - 13:12
EN: You can buy the close, you can buy the close.
ZH: 你可以买它的收盘、它的收盘
13:13 - 13:17
EN: As far as buying that close with that big tail on top, I would not.
ZH: 至于这个很长的上影线，我不会在它的收盘买入
13:17 - 13:20
EN: This might be a small second leg up from this breakout.
ZH: 它有可能是这次突破的第2段上涨——
13:20 - 13:22
EN: Breakout and then a small bar for a pause,
ZH: 突破，这根小阳线是暂停，
13:22 - 13:24
EN: and then a second leg up, and now we have a big tail.
ZH: 然后第2段上涨，它的上影线很长
13:26 - 13:28
EN: Can a bull buy that close?
ZH: 可以在它的收盘买入吗？
13:28 - 13:29
EN: Sure.
ZH: 当然
13:29 - 13:31
EN: He’ll be disappointed by this bar, and if he is,
ZH: 买入之后，多头会对接下来的阴线感到失望
13:31 - 13:33
EN: a lot of the bulls will try to get out breakeven.
ZH: 所以很多人会争取打平离场
13:33 - 13:36
EN: They’ll place a limit order to get out at that close
ZH: 他们会在那个收盘价挂限价卖单
13:36 - 13:37
EN: - and look what happened here.
ZH: ——仔细看这里发生了什么
13:37 - 13:40
EN: The market got right to the close.
ZH: 价格正好涨到那个收盘价
13:40 - 13:41
EN: The bulls did not get filled.
ZH: 此时大部分多头的卖单无法成交
13:41 - 13:43
EN: It turned down.
ZH: 然后反转下跌
13:43 - 13:46
EN: A lot of the bulls will lower their limit order to a tick or two lower,
ZH: 一些多头为了提高成交的概率，会限价卖单挂在低一两个ticks的地方
13:46 - 13:48
EN: and that resulted in this Lower High.
ZH: 所以造成了高点降低（注：如果刚好碰到，订单不一定能成交， 于是一些多头不追求完全打平，而是愿意亏一两个ticks，增加成交的成功率）
13:48 - 13:50
EN: The bulls selling.
ZH: 多头在卖出
13:50 - 13:52
EN: The bulls who bought that close could not get out here.
ZH: 在这里追涨的多头没办法打平离场
13:52 - 13:56
EN: They lowered their limit order, and we got a slightly Lower High.
ZH: 他们把限价卖单往下移动，造成高点降低
13:56 - 14:06
EN: That often leads to a swing down, when you see the Buy The Close bulls
ZH: 当你看到买收盘的多头急于离场，被迫把限价卖单往下移动、接受小亏， 那么后面通常会有下跌的波段
14:00 - 14:06
EN: desperate to get out, and they’re having to lower their exit price
ZH: 当你看到买收盘的多头急于离场，被迫把限价卖单往下移动、接受小亏， 那么后面通常会有下跌的波段
14:04 - 14:06
EN: to take a small loss.
ZH: 当你看到买收盘的多头急于离场，被迫把限价卖单往下移动、接受小亏， 那么后面通常会有下跌的波段
14:10 - 14:11
EN: Buy Climax.
ZH: 抢购高潮
14:11 - 14:17
EN: Little bit of a parabolic Buy Climax – one, pullback, two, pause, three
ZH: 有点像抛物线抢购高潮——1，回调；2，暂停；3
14:18 - 14:22
EN: - and we have a bad bar afterwards and a possible Broad Bull Channel.
ZH: ——然后出现了一根阴线，而且大的背景很可能是宽上涨通道
14:22 - 14:26
EN: Rally, selloff, rally, selloff, rally, possibly selloff.
ZH: 上涨，下跌；上涨，下跌；上涨，很可能再次下跌
14:31 - 14:34
EN: The bulls could not get out breakeven, and at some point,
ZH: 多头没有办法打平离场，于是在某个时刻
14:34 - 14:37
EN: they give up – here, and then the final bulls gave up here.
ZH: 他们只能在这里放弃，到这里，最后的多头也放弃了
14:44 - 14:48
EN: This is about 8 or 9 days in a bull trend.
ZH: 这个上涨趋势一共持续了八九天
Slide 007
Time: 14:45
Bilingual Transcript
14:48 - 14:50
EN: It’s a Broad Bull Channel, 5-minute chart.
ZH: 它是5分钟K线图上的宽上涨通道
14:57 - 14:59
EN: You can get 2nd Leg Traps up or down.
ZH: 上涨或下跌，都可能有第2段陷阱
14:59 - 15:03
EN: Here we reversed down, and now we reversed down even stronger,
ZH: 反转下跌，然后是更强的第2段抛售
15:03 - 15:09
EN: and this low is below that low, below the low of the past 200 or 300 bars.
ZH: 这个低点跌破了那个低点，跌破了过去200或300根K线的低点
15:09 - 15:12
EN: The bears are hoping it’s going to be the start of a bear trend.
ZH: 空头希望这是下降趋势的开始
15:12 - 15:15
EN: A lot of traders will sell there, only to get trapped
ZH: 许多交易者会在那里卖出做空，但却被套牢
15:15 - 15:21
EN: because if the market’s in a Broad Bull Channel
ZH: 因为如果市场处于宽上涨通道或震荡区间， 第2段陷阱是很常见的
15:18 - 15:21
EN: or in a Trading Range, 2nd Leg Traps are common.
ZH: 因为如果市场处于宽上涨通道或震荡区间， 第2段陷阱是很常见的
15:21 - 15:28
EN: You get a strong second leg, tricking traders into believing
ZH: 看上去很强势的第2段下跌，诱使交易者相信下降趋势开始了， 但行情很快反转上涨
15:24 - 15:28
EN: it’s the start of a trend, but instead it reverses.
ZH: 看上去很强势的第2段下跌，诱使交易者相信下降趋势开始了， 但行情很快反转上涨
15:28 - 15:29
EN: You get a failed breakout.
ZH: 向下跌破失败
15:35 - 15:40
EN: This breakout is strong enough to get a small second leg down.
ZH: 这段下跌足够强势，60%的概率至少会有小的第2段下跌
15:38 - 15:40
EN: 60% chance it’ll have at least a small second leg down.
ZH: 这段下跌足够强势，60%的概率至少会有小的第2段下跌
15:40 - 15:44
EN: It’s possible that this small Higher Low is that second leg down.
ZH: 有可能它就是那个小的第2段下跌
15:50 - 15:54
EN: And it quickly became Always In Long again with this reversal.
ZH: 很快反转，变成单边上涨了
15:54 - 15:56
EN: It reversed this selloff.
ZH: 强势的抛售被反转了
15:56 - 16:03
EN: We sold off, we tried to get a bear flag, and then we got a bull breakout
ZH: 向下跌破之后，尝试形成一个熊旗，但是却被向上突破， 几乎完全修复了这段跌幅
15:59 - 16:03
EN: above the bear flag, almost totally reversing the selloff.
ZH: 向下跌破之后，尝试形成一个熊旗，但是却被向上突破， 几乎完全修复了这段跌幅
16:03 - 16:04
EN: So it’s Always In Long.
ZH: 所以现在只考虑做多
16:04 - 16:09
EN: You’ve got to be thinking that maybe it would lead to a Measured Move up
ZH: 必须考虑到MM目标位的可能性——就在这里 （复习：失败的突破，反向MM目标位）
16:07 - 16:09
EN: - and that’s the Measured Move projection.
ZH: 必须考虑到MM目标位的可能性——就在这里 （复习：失败的突破，反向MM目标位）
Slide 008
Time: 16:15
Bilingual Transcript
16:17 - 16:23
EN: Traders always pay attention to how far a breakout goes above a breakout point.
ZH: 交易者总是关注创新高之后的突破幅度
16:24 - 16:26
EN: The market broke out above here.
ZH: 市场突破了前期的高点
16:26 - 16:27
EN: This is the breakout point,
ZH: 这个是突破点
16:27 - 16:31
EN: and traders pay attention to how far this is above that.
ZH: 交易者关注突破之后还能涨多少
16:31 - 16:32
EN: We have another high.
ZH: 形成了新的高点
16:32 - 16:34
EN: The market broke out and then pulled back.
ZH: 它也被突破了，但很快回调
16:34 - 16:37
EN: Traders pay attention to how far this is above that.
ZH: 交易者关注这个两个高点之间的距离有多远
16:38 - 16:41
EN: The market tends to do similar things, and breakouts tend to be similar.
ZH: 市场往往会继续做类似的事情，每次突破的强度也是近似的
16:41 - 16:45
EN: So subsequent breakouts might break out for about the same distance.
ZH: 所以接下来的突破很可能也是这样的幅度
16:48 - 16:50
EN: We have a breakout point and here’s the breakout.
ZH: 突破前期高点，涨到这里
16:50 - 16:54
EN: When we reverse down, this then becomes a breakout point for this breakout.
ZH: 回调之后，它变成了新的突破点，市场涨到这里
16:57 - 17:00
EN: This high is 10 ticks above that high.
ZH: 这两个高点之间的距离是10 ticks
17:03 - 17:08
EN: You can look at the size of the breakouts through the entire channel.
ZH: 我标注了整个通道中每次突破的幅度
17:08 - 17:10
EN: We have a very big breakout here, 37 ticks,
ZH: 这里有一个非常大的突破，37个ticks
17:10 - 17:13
EN: and you can see the sizes of the other breakouts.
ZH: 但其他突破的幅度没有那么大
17:18 - 17:21
EN: Bears sell in Broad Bull Channels.
ZH: 空头会在宽上涨通道中做空
Slide 009
Time: 17:20
Bilingual Transcript
17:21 - 17:22
EN: They don’t have to.
ZH: 可以不做空
17:22 - 17:26
EN: You always want to be buying whenever the market’s in a Broad Bull Channel
ZH: 在宽上涨通道中，买入做多总是更好，因为毕竟它是上涨趋势
17:25 - 17:26
EN: because it’s a bull trend.
ZH: 在宽上涨通道中，买入做多总是更好，因为毕竟它是上涨趋势
17:26 - 17:29
EN: But the pullbacks are deep enough so bears will sell,
ZH: 但回调足够深，所以做空也能赚钱
17:29 - 17:35
EN: and part of their selling is based upon the size
ZH: 空头做空的时候，会参考每次突破的幅度——刚刚讲到过
17:32 - 17:35
EN: of those breakouts that I just discussed.
ZH: 空头做空的时候，会参考每次突破的幅度——刚刚讲到过
Slide 010
Time: 17:36
Bilingual Transcript
17:43 - 17:47
EN: Bears need to see gaps closing before they start selling.
ZH: 空头希望每次突破之后的缺口会被回补
17:48 - 17:51
EN: If they’re selling above a high, they want to make sure
ZH: 比如，如果在这个高点挂单做空，
17:51 - 17:53
EN: that the market comes back below the high.
ZH: 市场要跌回到这个高点之下，他们才能赚钱
17:53 - 17:57
EN: For example, if you sell at this high, it did not come back below this high
ZH: 如果在这个高点挂单做空，但没有跌回到突破点之下
17:57 - 17:59
EN: and it would be very difficult to make money
ZH: 那么空头就很难赚钱
17:59 - 18:02
EN: unless you scaled in and then got out quickly enough.
ZH: 除非你在上方加仓，并且快速离场
18:03 - 18:05
EN: Before the bears start to sell,
ZH: 在入场做空之前——
18:05 - 18:08
EN: do bears want to be selling highs when the market’s doing this?
ZH: 在这样的上涨行情中，空头会在前期高点挂单做空吗？
18:09 - 18:12
EN: Very difficult to make money in a very Tight Bull Channel like that.
ZH: 这么窄的上涨通道，做空很难赚钱
18:12 - 18:13
EN: The bears need deep pullbacks
ZH: 空头需要看到深度回调
18:13 - 18:16
EN: and they need pullbacks that fall below breakout points.
ZH: 需要回调跌破前期高点
18:16 - 18:20
EN: Once they start to see that, then they’ll start selling at new highs
ZH: 一旦它们看到了深度回调，他们就会开始在前期高点挂限价卖单
18:20 - 18:22
EN: - or at least, some bears will sell at new highs.
ZH: 或者，有些空头会在创新高的时候卖出
18:26 - 18:33
EN: We have a very strong reversal up from a break below the bottom
ZH: 非常强势的反转上涨——跌破震荡区间的低点失败， 创新高之后开始回调下跌
18:29 - 18:33
EN: of the Trading Range, and we sold off from a new high.
ZH: 非常强势的反转上涨——跌破震荡区间的低点失败， 创新高之后开始回调下跌
18:33 - 18:38
EN: But although you cannot see on this chart, this low never fell below that high.
ZH: 在这张图上可能看不太清楚， 但这个低点没有跌破之前的突破点
18:38 - 18:44
EN: There’s actually a gap between the low of that bar
ZH: 在这根K线的低点，和这条线——也就是那根K线的高点之间， 实际上存在一个缺口
18:41 - 18:44
EN: and this line, which is at that high.
ZH: 在这根K线的低点，和这条线——也就是那根K线的高点之间， 实际上存在一个缺口
18:46 - 18:50
EN: Therefore, you’ve got to be thinking about a possible Measuring Gap.
ZH: 所以你必须考虑它是测量型缺口的可能性
18:50 - 18:51
EN: Measured Move up.
ZH: MM目标位
18:51 - 18:55
EN: The bears tried to reverse down from a Double Top Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 空头尝试制造高点降低的双顶大反转
18:55 - 18:59
EN: The bulls bought again, forming a Double Bottom bull flag,
ZH: 多头再次买入，形成了双底牛旗
18:59 - 19:00
EN: and again the gap stayed open.
ZH: 缺口仍然没有被补掉
19:00 - 19:04
EN: Probably the market’s going to rally for some kind of a Measured Move.
ZH: 市场大概率会涨到某个MM目标位
19:04 - 19:06
EN: This is probably a Measuring Gap.
ZH: 它大概率是一个测量型缺口
19:06 - 19:08
EN: It’s clearly an important price.
ZH: 这显然是一个重要的价格
19:08 - 19:12
EN: We broke fast above it and we tested it twice and reversed up twice.
ZH: 快速突破了它，两次尝试回测，但都反转上涨了
19:13 - 19:17
EN: This is obviously an important price, and now we know this is an important price.
ZH: 这个低点显然是一个重要的价格， 现在知道这个高点也是重要的价格
19:17 - 19:21
EN: The market tested it twice, reversed up without falling below it,
ZH: 两次回调，都没有跌破它就反转上涨了
19:21 - 19:25
EN: and therefore those two prices will probably create a third important price.
ZH: 所以这两个重要的价格会制造第3个重要的价格
19:30 - 19:33
EN: If the market is pulling back below breakout points,
ZH: 如果回调跌破前期高点，
19:33 - 19:43
EN: it’s a stairs pattern and traders pay attention to the size of breakouts
ZH: 那么这就是一个阶梯模式，想要逆势做空的空头会关注突破的幅度， 以此来决定在哪里止损、在哪里加仓
19:38 - 19:43
EN: to determine where to put stops and where to scale in
ZH: 那么这就是一个阶梯模式，想要逆势做空的空头会关注突破的幅度， 以此来决定在哪里止损、在哪里加仓
19:41 - 19:43
EN: if they’re looking at shorting in a bull trend.
ZH: 那么这就是一个阶梯模式，想要逆势做空的空头会关注突破的幅度， 以此来决定在哪里止损、在哪里加仓
19:47 - 19:50
EN: We have a breakout here, and it pulled back below the breakout,
ZH: 突破前期高点，然后回调到突破点的下方
19:50 - 19:54
EN: and therefore if a bear sold that high and sold more higher
ZH: 所以，如果一个空头在前期高点挂单卖出，并且在上方加仓
19:54 - 19:56
EN: - or simply sold above that breakout point
ZH: ——或者限价卖单直接挂在这个高点上方
19:56 - 20:00
EN: - we now know the bears can make money by selling above breakout points.
ZH: 交易者发现逢高做空的空头是能够赚到钱的
20:01 - 20:05
EN: Once the bears see that, bears are willing to sell above breakout points.
ZH: 一旦看到这一点，空头就愿意在创新高的时候入场做空
20:06 - 20:10
EN: Only experienced traders can do that because sometimes you get this.
ZH: 只有经验丰富的交易员可以这么做，因为有时候会遇到这种情况——
20:10 - 20:16
EN: If you sold at this high, the market went up quite a bit
ZH: 你在这个高点挂单做空，价格大幅上涨， 而且从来没有回到突破点的下方
20:15 - 20:16
EN: and never got back below that high.
ZH: 你在这个高点挂单做空，价格大幅上涨， 而且从来没有回到突破点的下方
20:16 - 20:19
EN: So you have to be able to manage your trade.
ZH: 所以（想要这样做的话）你必须能正确地管理交易
20:19 - 20:21
EN: Some bears would sell this high.
ZH: 一些空头会在这个高点挂单做空
20:21 - 20:25
EN: Couple legs up, they’d sell more here, and then either get out at their midpoint
ZH: 两段上涨，他们会在这里加仓，然后要么在中点离场
20:25 - 20:27
EN: - which the market allowed them to do
ZH: ——这里能够顺利地成交
20:27 - 20:29
EN: - or they would try to get out at their original entry,
ZH: 或者，尝试在初始入场价格离场
20:29 - 20:32
EN: breakeven at their original buy right here at that high.
ZH: 就在这个高点，这样他们的初始仓位可以打平（加仓的部分赚钱）
20:33 - 20:34
EN: They would not have been filled.
ZH: 但订单始终无法成交
20:34 - 20:36
EN: And if they were able to get out,
ZH: 如果能成交的话，
20:36 - 20:39
EN: they’d have a profit on their higher entry and breakeven on their second.
ZH: 他们加仓的部分就可以赚钱，初始仓位打平
20:40 - 20:42
EN: After the market twice tried to do that,
ZH: 两次尝试补掉缺口，都没有成功
20:42 - 20:45
EN: the scale-in bulls who sold more here got out.
ZH: 在上方加仓的空头会在这里离场
20:45 - 20:55
EN: They got a small loss on their first sell – they sold here,
ZH: 初始仓位小亏——在这里卖出，在这里离场—— 加仓的部分赚得略微多一些
20:50 - 20:55
EN: and they got out here – and they got a bigger profit on their second sell.
ZH: 初始仓位小亏——在这里卖出，在这里离场—— 加仓的部分赚得略微多一些
20:55 - 20:58
EN: So basically breakeven, maybe a little bit of profit.
ZH: 总体基本是打平的，也许有一点点利润
20:58 - 21:00
EN: But only skilled traders can do that.
ZH: 但只有熟练的交易员才能做到这一点
21:00 - 21:05
EN: Because this sometimes happens when you sell at prior highs,
ZH: 因为有时候大幅的突破会导致大亏
21:05 - 21:08
EN: only skilled traders should be selling at prior highs in a bull trend,
ZH: 所以需要非常好的技术，才能够在上涨趋势中逆势做空
21:09 - 21:13
EN: and they’ll only do it if the pullbacks are falling below breakout points.
ZH: 而且前提是回调足够深——跌回到突破点以下
21:18 - 21:19
EN: Why would we get a pullback?
ZH: 为什么会有回调？
21:19 - 21:23
EN: Well, the trend has deep pullbacks, so it’s not all that strong.
ZH: 有深度的回调，所以趋势并不是特别强
21:23 - 21:27
EN: Bulls prefer to buy pullbacks instead of buying at new highs,
ZH: 多头更愿意在回调时逢低买入，而不是在创新高的时候追涨
21:27 - 21:30
EN: and they tend to use new highs to take profits.
ZH: 他们倾向于在创新高时止盈
21:30 - 21:32
EN: They don’t necessarily get out exactly at the new high,
ZH: 多头不一定会直接把限价卖单挂在前期高点
21:32 - 21:35
EN: but if the market starts to stall above a prior high,
ZH: 但是，如果市场创新高之后滞涨
21:35 - 21:39
EN: they’ll start to take profits, and that results in another pullback.
ZH: 他们就会开始卖出止盈，导致价格再次回调
21:39 - 21:43
EN: The bulls buy the pullback and they’ll sell again at new highs to take profits.
ZH: 多头在回调时买入，然后再创新高的时候止盈
21:50 - 21:52
EN: The bears know the bulls are doing that.
ZH: 空头知道多头在这样做
21:52 - 21:59
EN: They can see the reversals down, and they can see the bulls
ZH: 他们看到价格反转下跌，看到多头等价格大幅回调以后才买入， 所以空头会在前期高点挂单做空
21:55 - 21:59
EN: buying well below the high, and therefore bears sell at new highs,
ZH: 他们看到价格反转下跌，看到多头等价格大幅回调以后才买入， 所以空头会在前期高点挂单做空
21:59 - 22:05
EN: scale in higher, betting that we’ll get a pullback deep enough
ZH: 并且愿意逢高加仓，押注会有足够深的回调， 让他们至少能够赚到剥头皮的利润
22:03 - 22:05
EN: to allow the bears to make at least a scalp.
ZH: 并且愿意逢高加仓，押注会有足够深的回调， 让他们至少能够赚到剥头皮的利润
Slide 011
Time: 22:10
Bilingual Transcript
22:11 - 22:13
EN: Traders are constantly drawing lines,
ZH: 交易者不断地画线
22:13 - 22:16
EN: especially when there’s a Broad Channel or a Trading Range.
ZH: 尤其是当市场处于宽通道或震荡区间的时候
22:16 - 22:19
EN: They’re looking for support and resistance.
ZH: 他们在寻找支撑和阻力
22:19 - 22:20
EN: You keep drawing new lines.
ZH: 需要一直调整全趋势线
22:20 - 22:24
EN: Every time you get a reversal, you get a new line.
ZH: 每次回调形成新的高点，就可以画新的线
22:27 - 22:29
EN: You’ve got lines across the highs.
ZH: 把这些高点连接起来
22:29 - 22:32
EN: You’ve got a new high, so it creates a new line.
ZH: 出现新的高点，所以产生了新的通道线
22:32 - 22:34
EN: You’ve got lines below the lows.
ZH: 把低点连接袭来
22:34 - 22:37
EN: The ones below are support; the ones above are resistance.
ZH: 下方的线是支撑，上方的线是阻力
22:37 - 22:40
EN: You want to see what the market does when it gets near a line.
ZH: 你需要观察价格在接近通道线的时候会有什么样的行为
22:40 - 22:44
EN: Will it break strongly beyond the line, or will it reverse?
ZH: 会强势突破通道线，还是碰到线就反转？
22:44 - 22:52
EN: Usually it reverses because the lines create channels
ZH: 通常会反转，因为市场往往在通道的上沿和下沿附近反转
22:47 - 22:52
EN: and the market tends to reverse near the top and near the bottom of a channel.
ZH: 通常会反转，因为市场往往在通道的上沿和下沿附近反转
22:58 - 23:06
EN: When we’re in a Broad Bull Channel like this, 75% of the breakout attempts
ZH: 像这样的宽上涨通道，75%的突破尝试， 不管是向上还是向下，都会失败
23:03 - 23:06
EN: at the top and the bottom of the channel will fail,
ZH: 像这样的宽上涨通道，75%的突破尝试， 不管是向上还是向下，都会失败
23:06 - 23:09
EN: and therefore traders look to enter on reversals,
ZH: 所以交易者会在反转时入场
23:09 - 23:13
EN: look to buy reversals up from the bottom and sell reversals down from the top.
ZH: 在通道下沿做多，在通道上沿做空
23:17 - 23:18
EN: We have a trend line.
ZH: 有一条趋势线
23:18 - 23:20
EN: Traders sell the reversal down.
ZH: 通道上沿，反转下跌做空
23:20 - 23:22
EN: Two points, two reversals down.
ZH: 两次下跌，形成两个高点
23:22 - 23:23
EN: We can create a trend line.
ZH: 连起来画线
23:23 - 23:24
EN: Traders sell the reversal down.
ZH: 碰到线反转下跌，做空
23:24 - 23:27
EN: We have two points here, sell the reversal down.
ZH: 连接这两个点，从上沿反转下跌做空
23:27 - 23:28
EN: Sell the reversal down.
ZH: 反转下跌做空
23:28 - 23:30
EN: All the way up.
ZH: 一路上都有做空机会
23:30 - 23:32
EN: Bulls will do the opposite.
ZH: 多头则正好相反
23:37 - 23:41
EN: They draw lines along the bottom and any time the market falls below a line,
ZH: 他们连接低点划线，每当市场跌破趋势线，
23:41 - 23:44
EN: they buy the reversal up, betting that the bear breakout will fail.
ZH: 他们就买入做多，押注空头反转失败
Slide 012
Time: 23:50
Bilingual Transcript
23:52 - 23:55
EN: If you’re selling at a prior high in a bull trend,
ZH: 上涨趋势中，如果你在前期高点挂单做空
23:55 - 23:58
EN: you have to be able to manage your trade well.
ZH: 你必须要很好地管理这笔交易
23:58 - 24:00
EN: This is an advanced technique.
ZH: 这是进阶的技巧
24:00 - 24:02
EN: This is not something that beginners should be doing,
ZH: 不是新手应该做的事情
24:02 - 24:05
EN: but advanced traders can do it if they can manage their trades properly
ZH: 但高手通过正确的管理，可以赚到钱
24:05 - 24:10
EN: - and by manage their trades, I mean use an appropriately wide stop and scale in.
ZH: ——管理的意思是：使用合理的宽止损并且加仓
24:10 - 24:12
EN: By scaling in, they increase their profit.
ZH: 加仓提高了他们的胜率
24:12 - 24:14
EN: They also increase their risk.
ZH: 但也增加了风险
24:19 - 24:21
EN: Where is an appropriate stop?
ZH: 合理的止损在哪里？
24:21 - 24:23
EN: Well, you have to use a wide stop,
ZH: 做空需要较宽的初始止损
24:23 - 24:26
EN: and one way to do it is use one based upon a Measured Move.
ZH: 其中一个选择是放在MM目标位的上方
24:26 - 24:30
EN: The bears have a Double Top here, where this high is slightly higher.
ZH: 这里有一个双顶，这个高点略微更高一些
24:31 - 24:33
EN: If we get a bull breakout above the Double Top,
ZH: 如果向上突破了这个双顶
24:33 - 24:35
EN: the market may go up for a Measured Move.
ZH: 市场可能会涨到MM目标位 （注：双顶的高度往上翻一倍；空头希望跌破颈线，往下翻一倍）
24:35 - 24:41
EN: Therefore, a trader selling needs to put a stop slightly
ZH: 因此，空头可以把初始止损放在MM目标位上方一点点
24:39 - 24:41
EN: above that Measured Move projection.
ZH: 因此，空头可以把初始止损放在MM目标位上方一点点
24:43 - 24:51
EN: He knows that the bulls who buy above the Double Top are going to take profits
ZH: 他知道在突破双顶时买入的多头会在MM目标位附近止盈， 所以如果空头卖出做空并且打算逢高加仓的话
24:48 - 24:51
EN: around the Measured Move up, and therefore if a bear sells
ZH: 他知道在突破双顶时买入的多头会在MM目标位附近止盈， 所以如果空头卖出做空并且打算逢高加仓的话
24:51 - 24:58
EN: and looks to sell more higher, he needs a stop beyond
ZH: 他需要把初始止损放在多头的止盈目标位上方
24:55 - 24:58
EN: that level where the bulls will sell to take profits.
ZH: 他需要把初始止损放在多头的止盈目标位上方
25:04 - 25:07
EN: If you are selling at or above prior highs,
ZH: 如果你在前期高点挂单做空
25:07 - 25:09
EN: you need to go for at least a minimum scalp,
ZH: 你的目标至少是一笔剥头皮交易
25:09 - 25:13
EN: and in the Emini the minimum scalp size is 1 point.
ZH: 在ES中，剥头皮的最小目标是1个点
25:13 - 25:17
EN: If the bars are big and the range is big, you want to go for more than 1 point.
ZH: 如果K线很大，波动很大，那么你的目标也应该相应地变大
25:18 - 25:23
EN: Also, you want to go for a reward
ZH: 此外，利润应该至少等于1倍实际风险
25:20 - 25:23
EN: that is at least one to two times your Actual Risk.
ZH: 此外，利润应该至少等于1倍实际风险
25:23 - 25:32
EN: If you have a particularly strong setup and the probability therefore is high,
ZH: 如果机会特别好，胜率很高——60%或更高， 你可以在一倍实际风险的地方止盈
25:28 - 25:32
EN: 60% or more, then you can exit with one times Actual Risk.
ZH: 如果机会特别好，胜率很高——60%或更高， 你可以在一倍实际风险的地方止盈
25:33 - 25:35
EN: If you have an unremarkable sell setup,
ZH: 如果是一个普通的做空机会 （注：大部分交易都没有很大的把握）
25:35 - 25:38
EN: then you should be going for at least two times your Actual Risk.
ZH: 那么就应该追求至少两倍实际盈亏比
25:38 - 25:44
EN: Also, on any trade, you always have to be going for
ZH: 另外，任何一笔交易的目标都不应该小于剥头皮的最小利润
25:41 - 25:44
EN: at least one times the size of a minimum scalp.
ZH: 另外，任何一笔交易的目标都不应该小于剥头皮的最小利润
25:44 - 25:48
EN: In other words, never go for a profit of less
ZH: 换句话说，在ES中做剥头皮的时候，永远不要追求小于1个点的利润
25:46 - 25:48
EN: than 1 point when scalping in the Emini.
ZH: 换句话说，在ES中做剥头皮的时候，永远不要追求小于1个点的利润
Slide 013
Time: 25:50
Bilingual Transcript
25:54 - 25:56
EN: The bears who sold at that high made money.
ZH: 在那个高点挂单做空的空头赚到了钱
25:56 - 25:59
EN: The bears who sold at this high had to sit through a drawdown,
ZH: 在这个高点挂单做空的空头，现实经历了一些浮亏
25:59 - 26:01
EN: but ultimately, they made money.
ZH: 但最终也是赚钱的
26:03 - 26:06
EN: We have another potential Double Top.
ZH: 这里也是一个潜在的双顶
26:06 - 26:09
EN: The bears who sell this high might put a stop right above the Measured Move.
ZH: 在这里做空的空头，可能会把止损放在MM目标位的上方
26:12 - 26:16
EN: We have another potential Double Top, and here’s the neckline.
ZH: 又是一个潜在的双顶，经现在这里
26:16 - 26:20
EN: The bears want a break below the neckline and a Measured Move down,
ZH: 空投希望跌破颈线，并继续跌到MM目标位
26:20 - 26:27
EN: but sometimes instead of a bear breakout, it starts to turn down
ZH: 但向下跌破失败，刚刚跌破就反转上涨—— 可能会涨到反向的MM目标位
26:23 - 26:27
EN: but then it goes up – and if it does, it might go up for a Measured Move,
ZH: 但向下跌破失败，刚刚跌破就反转上涨—— 可能会涨到反向的MM目标位
26:27 - 26:30
EN: and therefore if traders are willing to sell at the prior high
ZH: 所以，如果空头在前期高点挂单做空
26:30 - 26:33
EN: hoping for the Double Top, but instead the market goes higher,
ZH: 押注会有双顶反转下跌，但市场却上涨
26:34 - 26:37
EN: they should have a protective stop beyond a Measured Move up.
ZH: 他们应该把保护性止损放在MM目标位的上方
26:37 - 26:40
EN: Again, only experienced traders should do this.
ZH: 再次强调，只有经验丰富的交易员才能这样做
26:40 - 26:43
EN: You can use tighter stops if the sell setup is strong enough,
ZH: 如果是非常好的做空机会，那么可以用相对较窄的止损
26:43 - 26:45
EN: if the bars are strong enough,
ZH: 如果有大阴线
26:45 - 26:47
EN: if you have good sell signal bars and a Micro Double Top.
ZH: 有好的做空信号K线和小双顶
26:47 - 26:50
EN: You could put a stop just above the high of the sell signal bar.
ZH: 你可以把止损放在信号K线的上方
26:53 - 26:55
EN: Another attempt at a Double Top.
ZH: 再次尝试形成双顶
26:55 - 26:57
EN: Bears will sell at that high,
ZH: 空头在那个高点挂限价卖单做空
26:57 - 27:00
EN: willing to scale in higher and use maybe a Measured Move up.
ZH: 愿意逢高加仓，把初始止损放在MM目标位的上面
27:00 - 27:01
EN: Here’s the neckline of the Double Top.
ZH: 这里是双顶的颈线
27:01 - 27:03
EN: Measured Move up is up here.
ZH: 上方的MM目标位在这里
27:06 - 27:07
EN: Same thing here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
27:08 - 27:10
EN: Another sell and a new high.
ZH: 有一个在新高做空的机会
27:14 - 27:16
EN: Bears, how do they take profits?
ZH: 空头在什么地方止盈？
27:16 - 27:18
EN: They have many different choices.
ZH: 他们有很多种选择
27:18 - 27:22
EN: They could exit at a fixed number of ticks, like 4 points or 16 ticks,
ZH: 他们可以在固定的距离止盈，比如4个点，即16 ticks
27:22 - 27:26
EN: or if the range is small, maybe 1 point, 4 ticks.
ZH: 或者，如果波动很小，可能是1个点，即4 ticks
27:27 - 27:32
EN: Or they can exit with a limit order,
ZH: 或者，他们可以把止盈的限价卖单挂在左边上涨波段的50%
27:29 - 27:32
EN: maybe halfway down from the most recent rally up.
ZH: 或者，他们可以把止盈的限价卖单挂在左边上涨波段的50%
27:33 - 27:36
EN: Or they could try to get out below a minor Higher Low.
ZH: 或者，可以在跌破前期次要低点的时候止盈 （注：之前讲到过，上涨趋势中，次要低点下方会有很多买盘，导致跌破大概率失败）
27:37 - 27:40
EN: Or they could simply hold until there’s a reasonable buy setup,
ZH: 或者可以一直持有，直到出现合理的做多机会
27:40 - 27:44
EN: like a reversal up from the bottom of a bull trend line.
ZH: 比如从通道下沿反转上涨的时候
27:48 - 27:50
EN: For example, a bear selling here,
ZH: 例如，一个空头在这里入场做空
27:50 - 27:53
EN: and if he held through this, he might get out at this low.
ZH: 在反弹的时候他继续持有， 然后可能会在前期低点附近离场
27:53 - 27:54
EN: Neckline of a Double Top,
ZH: 它是这个双顶的颈线
27:54 - 27:57
EN: betting the bear breakout would fail and we’d get a big High 2 buy.
ZH: （空头在这里止盈的原因是）押注向下的跌破会失败， 然后形成大的高2牛旗做多机会
27:57 - 28:01
EN: Two legs down – one, pullback, two – and then a resumption up.
ZH: 两段下跌——第1段，反弹，第2段——然后恢复上涨
28:01 - 28:06
EN: We did get a High 2 buy, but it fell much further
ZH: 确实是高2牛旗，只不过第2段下跌比想象中大得多
28:04 - 28:06
EN: than what traders thought was likely.
ZH: 确实是高2牛旗，只不过第2段下跌比想象中大得多
28:09 - 28:15
EN: Again, you can sell and hold until you get two legs down
ZH: 当然，也可以做空之后一直持有，直到两段下跌走完， 开始反转上涨了，再离场
28:13 - 28:15
EN: and then buy on a reversal up.
ZH: 当然，也可以做空之后一直持有，直到两段下跌走完， 开始反转上涨了，再离场
28:15 - 28:18
EN: For example, you can buy back your short down here.
ZH: 例如，你可以在这里买入回补
Slide 014
Time: 28:20
Bilingual Transcript
28:23 - 28:24
EN: Here’s an example.
ZH: 来看这个案例
28:24 - 28:26
EN: Traders selling at a prior high.
ZH: 空头在前期高点挂单做空
28:26 - 28:28
EN: You cannot see it, but there’s a Micro Double Top.
ZH: 图太小了，实际上它本身也有一个小双顶
28:28 - 28:32
EN: Once the market starts to turn down, a lot of traders will put their stop
ZH: 一旦市场开始下跌，尤其是做空信号K线非常强势的话
28:32 - 28:35
EN: above the high, especially if it was a strong sell signal bar.
ZH: 很多空头会把止损移动到这个高点上方 （注：一开始可能设置了宽的初始止损，看到强势反转下跌，就开始追踪止损）
28:39 - 28:42
EN: If you’re selling in a bull trend, you have to have a plan to get out
ZH: 如果在上涨趋势中逆势做空，你必须做好离场的计划
28:42 - 28:47
EN: if the market goes against you,
ZH: 以防市场继续上涨，尤其是要应对快速、大幅的突破
28:44 - 28:47
EN: especially if it goes against you quickly and far.
ZH: 以防市场继续上涨，尤其是要应对快速、大幅的突破
28:52 - 28:56
EN: Again, I mentioned before that traders look at the size of prior breakouts.
ZH: 刚才，我提到交易者会关注每次突破的幅度
28:56 - 28:59
EN: One option is you look at the biggest prior breakout
ZH: 一个止损的选择是，找到前期幅度最大的突破
28:59 - 29:03
EN: and put a stop just beyond twice as big as that breakout.
ZH: 然后把初始止损放在那个突破幅度的两倍之外
29:06 - 29:08
EN: This high went 10 ticks above this.
ZH: 这个高点距离前期高点有10个ticks
29:08 - 29:11
EN: This high went 17 ticks above that.
ZH: 这个高点距离前期高点有17个ticks
29:11 - 29:15
EN: A trader might put a stop more than 17 ticks above here.
ZH: 一个空头可能会把止损放在这个高点上方17个ticks的地方
29:15 - 29:23
EN: He may go twice as much, like 34 ticks above there.
ZH: 也可能加倍，比如放在它上方34、35、36个ticks的地方
29:21 - 29:23
EN: 35, 36 ticks.
ZH: 也可能加倍，比如放在它上方34、35、36个ticks的地方
Slide 015
Time: 29:30
Bilingual Transcript
29:31 - 29:33
EN: Minimum scalp in the Emini is 4 ticks.
ZH: ES中剥头皮的最小目标是4个ticks
29:33 - 29:38
EN: Minimum reward is always one to two times the Actual Risk,
ZH: 最低目标永远不应该低于实际风险的1倍或两倍
29:38 - 29:42
EN: but it has to be at least bigger than a minimum scalp of 1 point.
ZH: 同时也不应该低于1个点
29:46 - 29:47
EN: These legs are big.
ZH: 这些波段都很大
29:48 - 29:54
EN: Some of them are 10 points or more and scalping
ZH: 一些波段的幅度超过了10个点（40 ticks）， 所以只追求1个点的目标不是最佳选择
29:51 - 29:54
EN: for 1 point is probably not the best choice.
ZH: 一些波段的幅度超过了10个点（40 ticks）， 所以只追求1个点的目标不是最佳选择
29:55 - 29:59
EN: Going for the minimum in life for anything is rarely ever the best choice.
ZH: 生活中的任何事，只追求最低目标往往都不是最好的选择
30:04 - 30:07
EN: When the channel is 10 points from top to bottom,
ZH: 如果从通道上沿到下沿的距离有10个点
30:07 - 30:11
EN: going for a 1 or 2 point scalp is probably a bad decision.
ZH: 只做一两个点的剥头皮是一个糟糕的决定
30:11 - 30:13
EN: There’s much more profit potential.
ZH: 有更大的利润空间
30:17 - 30:19
EN: For example, you could double your profit.
ZH: 例如，你可以把目标翻倍
30:19 - 30:23
EN: So if you were thinking that one times Actual Risk is 1 point
ZH: 如果一倍实际风险是1个点，
30:23 - 30:28
EN: and two times is 2 points and it’s not very big compared
ZH: 两倍实际风险是2个点，相对于之前的回调深度而言并不算大， 那么就把目标翻倍
30:26 - 30:28
EN: to the size of the prior pullbacks, double it.
ZH: 两倍实际风险是2个点，相对于之前的回调深度而言并不算大， 那么就把目标翻倍
30:28 - 30:31
EN: Go for 4 points profit, 5 points profit.
ZH: 把目标设置为4个点、5个点
30:35 - 30:40
EN: You could also exit around a 50% pullback from the most recent bull leg.
ZH: 也可以在左边上涨波段的50%回调处止盈
30:40 - 30:42
EN: Bull leg, 50% pullback.
ZH: 上涨波段，50%回调
30:42 - 30:46
EN: If you sold up here, that would be a reasonable place to take profits
ZH: 如果你在这里入场做空，到这里止盈是合理的
30:46 - 30:48
EN: because the bulls like to buy 50% pullbacks,
ZH: 因为很多多头喜欢在50%回调买入
30:48 - 30:50
EN: and you can see that’s what happened.
ZH: 这就是这里所发生的事情
30:50 - 30:51
EN: The bulls bought.
ZH: 多头买入了
30:55 - 30:57
EN: Some traders will hold for a swing down,
ZH: 一些空头会继续持有做波段
30:57 - 31:00
EN: taking a chance that we have a successful Double Top.
ZH: 押注双顶反转能够成功
31:00 - 31:02
EN: It would be a Double Top Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 押注会是成功的双顶大反转
31:02 - 31:05
EN: Bull trend, bear breakout, Double Top.
ZH: 上涨趋势，跌破趋势线，双顶
31:05 - 31:10
EN: It’s actually an Expanding Triangle in here as well – one, two, three, four, five.
ZH: 这里实际上也是一个扩张三角形——1，2，3、4、5
31:10 - 31:14
EN: So they might hold for two legs down and possibly a bear trend.
ZH: 所以他们继续持有，期待有两段下跌甚至是下降趋势
31:14 - 31:20
EN: However, once it broke below the bottom of a Trading Range lasting
ZH: 然而，这个震荡区间持续了很久，可能有几百根K线 刚刚跌破它的下沿，就立刻反转上涨
31:17 - 31:20
EN: that many bars, couple hundred bars, \ and started to reverse up,
ZH: 然而，这个震荡区间持续了很久，可能有几百根K线 刚刚跌破它的下沿，就立刻反转上涨
31:20 - 31:25
EN: a lot of traders would buy back their shorts, afraid that it’s a 2nd Leg Trap
ZH: 很多空头会买入回补，以防这是第2段陷阱
31:25 - 31:29
EN: - one, pullback, two – in a Trading Range or in a Broad Bull Channel.
ZH: 1，反弹，2——这种陷阱在震荡区间和宽通道中很常见
Slide 016
Time: 31:35
Bilingual Transcript
31:36 - 31:38
EN: No strategy is perfect.
ZH: 不存在完美的策略
31:38 - 31:40
EN: You’re going to lose on some trades.
ZH: 你肯定会有亏损的时候
31:40 - 31:44
EN: Let’s say you’ve been scalping at prior highs all day long
ZH: 假设你一直在前期高点挂单做空剥头皮
31:44 - 31:46
EN: and you decide to sell here as well.
ZH: 你决定在这个高点也继续挂单做空
31:46 - 31:48
EN: In general, I think that’s not a good idea.
ZH: 通常来说，我觉得这不是一个好主意
31:48 - 31:54
EN: We just had a failed breakout below the bottom of the range
ZH: 刚刚跌破区间下沿失败，然后强势地反转上涨， 我个人不会在这里做空
31:51 - 31:54
EN: and a strong reversal up, so I would not take that sell.
ZH: 刚刚跌破区间下沿失败，然后强势地反转上涨， 我个人不会在这里做空
31:54 - 31:57
EN: But let’s say you did sell at that high,
ZH: 但假设你真的在那个高点挂单做空了
32:00 - 32:03
EN: betting on maybe a possible Expanding Triangle.
ZH: 押注有可能是扩张三角形
32:03 - 32:06
EN: Maybe we’ll turn down here or soon, like here.
ZH: 也许很快就会反转下跌，就像这里一样
32:08 - 32:12
EN: Different ways to draw the Expanding Triangle.
ZH: 也可以这样去画扩张三角形
32:10 - 32:12
EN: This is another way to draw it.
ZH: 也可以这样去画扩张三角形
32:19 - 32:22
EN: Let’s say a trader was using a wide stop based upon a Measured Move up
ZH: 假设空头把宽止损放在MM目标位的上方——
32:22 - 32:26
EN: from the bottom to the top of the Trading Range, up here,
ZH: 把震荡区间的高度往上翻一倍
32:26 - 32:28
EN: and put the stop a little bit above.
ZH: 把止损放在这条线上方一点点
32:28 - 32:30
EN: His stop did not get hit.
ZH: 他的止损没有被打掉
32:31 - 32:35
EN: However, he’s clearly going to be disappointed by the rally
ZH: 但是，创新高之后继续上涨，显然让空头感到失望
32:34 - 32:39
EN: that continued after his sell, and he probably would try to get out breakeven.
ZH: 但是，创新高之后继续上涨，显然让空头感到失望 空头现在觉得能不亏离场就很满意了
32:39 - 32:42
EN: Experienced traders would also sell more, scaling in,
ZH: 经验丰富的交易员会在上方加仓卖出更多，
32:42 - 32:46
EN: trying to get a profit on their second entry and breakeven on their first.
ZH: 尝试让初始仓位打平、加仓的部分赚钱
32:50 - 32:56
EN: Yet as I said, twice the market tried to get
ZH: 但之前已经讲过，市场两次尝试跌回到突破点，但是都失败了
32:53 - 32:56
EN: below the breakout point, and it failed both times.
ZH: 但之前已经讲过，市场两次尝试跌回到突破点，但是都失败了
32:56 - 33:00
EN: Therefore, this is a Double Bottom breakout test.
ZH: 两次回测突破点，变成双底牛旗
33:00 - 33:03
EN: The reversal up here is probably going up for some kind of a Measured Move,
ZH: 反转上涨之后可能会涨到某个MM目标位 （注：因为缺口保持开放，很可能是测量型缺口）
33:03 - 33:08
EN: and the bears who did sell here, whether or not they scaled in higher,
ZH: 同时，在这里卖出做空的空头，不管有没有在上方加仓
33:08 - 33:11
EN: are going to get out above this bar, and they’ll end up with a loss on this sell.
ZH: 都会在这根K线上方离场，最终在这里做空的仓位是亏损的
33:18 - 33:21
EN: Bulls will buy because it’s a Double Bottom bull flag
ZH: 多头会买入，因为它是双底牛旗
33:21 - 33:26
EN: and a breakout test of the top of the Trading Range with no overlap.
ZH: 而且回测突破点没有重叠、留下了缺口
Slide 017
Time: 33:30
Bilingual Transcript
33:33 - 33:36
EN: Experienced traders often scale in to trades.
ZH: 经验丰富的交易员经常会加仓
33:37 - 33:40
EN: Sometimes they scale in to make a profit.
ZH: 有时加仓是为了赚钱
33:40 - 33:43
EN: Other times they scale in simply to avoid a loss.
ZH: 有时只是为了避免亏损
33:44 - 33:51
EN: Some of the traders who see this strong reversal up and strong breakout
ZH: 在做空之后，看到价格强势上涨突破， 此时加仓的目的只是为了避免亏损
33:47 - 33:51
EN: after taking this short, are going to be scaling in to avoid a loss.
ZH: 在做空之后，看到价格强势上涨突破， 此时加仓的目的只是为了避免亏损
33:51 - 33:53
EN: So they sell, they sell more higher.
ZH: ——在这里卖出，在上方卖出更多
33:54 - 33:57
EN: This higher short is not to make a profit for some of them.
ZH: 一些空头在上方加仓的目的不是为了赚钱
33:57 - 34:00
EN: Some of them, it’s simply to avoid a loss on the trade,
ZH: 而是为了避免亏损
34:00 - 34:02
EN: and they want to get out at the average entry price.
ZH: 他们想在总的平均入场价格离场
34:08 - 34:11
EN: If you are willing to scale in, you have to make sure
ZH: 如果想要加仓，你就必须确保无论加仓多少次，
34:11 - 34:18
EN: that whatever number of entries you take will not result in a loss
ZH: 即使止损真的被打到，总的亏损也是你完全能接受的
34:16 - 34:18
EN: bigger than what you’re comfortable taking.
ZH: 即使止损真的被打到，总的亏损也是你完全能接受的
34:18 - 34:21
EN: So you always have to trade small enough so that if your stop is hit,
ZH: 所以必须要用很小的仓位交易，这样就算止损被打到，
34:21 - 34:24
EN: the loss is no bigger than on any other trade.
ZH: 亏损也不会比平时的交易更大
34:25 - 34:29
EN: The reason traders scale in is to increase their probability of making money,
ZH: 加仓的目的是为了增加赚钱的概率
34:30 - 34:33
EN: but that always reduces the risk/reward ratio.
ZH: 但那总是会让盈亏比变差
34:34 - 34:37
EN: It usually results in significantly increased risk.
ZH: 通常会让风险大幅增加
34:38 - 34:41
EN: Only experienced traders should ever consider doing it.
ZH: 只有经验丰富的交易员才能考虑这么做
34:45 - 34:49
EN: Some traders will scale in at a fixed number of points, maybe 5 points higher.
ZH: 一些空头会在固定距离加仓，比如在上方5个点的地方
34:52 - 34:56
EN: Others will sell more at a new high, like above this high right there.
ZH: 一些人会在新高加仓，比如在这个高点上方
34:59 - 35:02
EN: Some will sell halfway up to their stop.
ZH: 一些人在止损距离的一半加仓
35:06 - 35:09
EN: Others will wait to sell a reversal back down.
ZH: 一些人等待反转下跌的时候再加仓——
35:09 - 35:12
EN: That’s the way I think most traders should do it if they’re scaling in.
ZH: 我认为对于大部分交易者而言，想加仓的话应该这么做
35:12 - 35:16
EN: They take their original entry and then wait for a reversal down.
ZH: 初始在这里卖出做空，然后等待反转下跌的时候加仓
35:16 - 35:21
EN: They make sure that the second entry
ZH: 确保加仓的位置距离初始入场价格至少有两三个点
35:18 - 35:21
EN: is at least two to three times bigger than a scalp.
ZH: 确保加仓的位置距离初始入场价格至少有两三个点
35:27 - 35:33
EN: The scale-in bulls who sold here and then added at any one of these other places,
ZH: 空头一开始在这里做空，然后在这里其中某个地方加仓
35:33 - 35:38
EN: once they see the Double Bottom failing to get below their first entry price,
ZH: 当他们看到这个双底——两次尝试补缺口都没成功
35:38 - 35:40
EN: will get out on the reversal up.
ZH: 会在反转上涨时离场
35:40 - 35:44
EN: They’ll have a small loss on their first entry and a slightly bigger profit
ZH: 他们的初始仓位小亏，加仓的部分略微多赚了一些
35:44 - 35:51
EN: on their second entry – basically breakeven on the entire trade.
ZH: 总体基本上是打平的； 他们通过加仓避免了亏损
35:48 - 35:51
EN: They ended up scaling in to avoid a loss.
ZH: 总体基本上是打平的； 他们通过加仓避免了亏损
35:51 - 35:54
EN: They wanted to make a profit; they could not make a profit,
ZH: 他们一开始当然也想赚钱，就算没能赚钱
35:54 - 35:56
EN: but they were able to avoid a loss.
ZH: 至少也能避免亏损
Slide 018
Time: 36:00
Bilingual Transcript
36:00 - 36:03
EN: I have a close-up of this on the next slide.
ZH: 下一页课件会把这部分的K线放大
36:03 - 36:05
EN: This is the last slide.
ZH: 这是上一页课件
Slide 019
Time: 36:05
Bilingual Transcript
36:05 - 36:07
EN: I put it down as a thumbnail.
ZH: 我把缩略图放在这里
36:07 - 36:11
EN: I want to show the close-up of it right here.
ZH: 我想展示这段行情的细节
36:11 - 36:16
EN: This purple box is this purple box, and this is that breakout point,
ZH: 也就是这个紫色的区域； 这里是突破点
36:16 - 36:18
EN: this red line right here.
ZH: 就是这条红线
36:18 - 36:22
EN: You can see the market got very close to the breakout point twice,
ZH: 可以看到，两次回调都非常接近突破点
36:22 - 36:24
EN: but it never got down to the breakout point.
ZH: 但始终没能碰到（略微跌破）它
36:24 - 36:27
EN: So the bears who sold at that high,
ZH: 在前期高点挂单做空的空头
36:27 - 36:29
EN: they placed a limit order to sell at this high.
ZH: 他们在那个高点挂限价卖单做空
36:29 - 36:30
EN: They got filled right here.
ZH: 订单在这里成交
36:30 - 36:32
EN: This is where they got filled.
ZH: 这是他们成交的地方
36:32 - 36:35
EN: The market never came back below their entry price,
ZH: 市场从未回到他们的入场价下方
36:35 - 36:40
EN: and they therefore were never able to get out breakeven on their first entry.
ZH: 所以这部分仓位始终无法打平离场
36:45 - 36:48
EN: As I said, some of the bears will scale in more,
ZH: 一些空头会在上方加仓
36:48 - 36:51
EN: especially below a bear bar closing near its low.
ZH: 尤其是收在最低的阴线下方
36:51 - 36:54
EN: This is a reasonable place to scale in.
ZH: 在这里加仓做空是合理的
36:54 - 36:57
EN: Not a good sell signal bar, not a good sell signal bar.
ZH: 这个做空信号K线不好，这个也不好
36:57 - 36:59
EN: This is a better sell signal bar.
ZH: 这个做空信号K线更好一些
37:03 - 37:06
EN: Again, the traders are only doing this if they’re relying on their stop.
ZH: 这样加仓的前提是，要能够依赖初始止损
37:06 - 37:10
EN: Also, they’re willing to hold overnight for a lot of bars.
ZH: 同时，他们愿意持仓过夜
37:10 - 37:14
EN: Most traders would not do this, but some experienced traders would.
ZH: 大多数交易者不会这样做，除非是很有经验的交易员
37:18 - 37:21
EN: Traders have a Micro Double Bottom here,
ZH: 这里有一个小双底
37:21 - 37:25
EN: and a gap between this pullback and the breakout point.
ZH: 回调没有完全把缺口补掉
37:25 - 37:29
EN: They’ll get out above the bull bar on the Micro Double Bottom.
ZH: 他们会在小双底的阳线上方离场
37:29 - 37:32
EN: Others will hold, hoping to get a second leg down after the gap down
ZH: 一些空头会继续持有，希望今天跳空低开之后会有第2段下跌
37:32 - 37:40
EN: and strong bear bars, and they’ll get out here
ZH: 他们最终会在这里离场——又是小双底（第2做多入场点）， 或者这里——大的高2牛旗做多入场点
37:35 - 37:40
EN: - another second reversal up – or here, a big High 2 buy.
ZH: 他们最终会在这里离场——又是小双底（第2做多入场点）， 或者这里——大的高2牛旗做多入场点
37:40 - 37:44
EN: Again, a breakout test of the breakout point, never getting below it.
ZH: 再次测试突破点，还是没有跌破它
37:44 - 37:45
EN: Plus, the end of the day.
ZH: 而且已经来到了尾盘
37:46 - 37:52
EN: If they sell more here compared to here, they have a profit on this entry
ZH: 如果他们在这里加仓做空，初始入场点在这里
37:52 - 37:55
EN: for any of these exits that’s bigger than the loss.
ZH: 不管在其中哪个地方离场，加仓部分的利润都大于初始仓位的亏损 （注：所以最后总体有微小的利润）
Slide 020
Time: 37:59
Bilingual Transcript
38:03 - 38:10
EN: Some base the sell size, when selling above a prior high,
ZH: 在前期高点上方挂单做空的时候， 空头会根据之前突破的幅度来决定开仓的位置
38:07 - 38:10
EN: they base the sell size on the size of the prior breakout.
ZH: 在前期高点上方挂单做空的时候， 空头会根据之前突破的幅度来决定开仓的位置
38:13 - 38:16
EN: This breakout is 10 ticks above that.
ZH: 这里突破的高度是10 ticks
38:16 - 38:19
EN: This high is 17 ticks above that.
ZH: 这里突破的高度是17 ticks
38:25 - 38:27
EN: This one’s 8 ticks above that.
ZH: 这里突破的高度是8 ticks
38:27 - 38:33
EN: So they might sell 8 ticks above here and maybe more 8 ticks higher.
ZH: 空头可能会在上方8 ticks的地方挂限价卖单做空，或者再往上8 ticks
38:33 - 38:37
EN: Again, stop probably has to be a Measured Move up because the bulls
ZH: 止损放在MM目标位的上方，
38:37 - 38:42
EN: have a Double Bottom and we could go all the way up
ZH: 因为这是多头的双底牛旗，完全可能一路涨到MM目标位再回调
38:39 - 38:42
EN: to their Measured Move target before pulling back.
ZH: 因为这是多头的双底牛旗，完全可能一路涨到MM目标位再回调
38:49 - 38:51
EN: Why would a trader sell here instead of here?
ZH: 为什么空头要把限价卖单挂在更高的位置， 而不是直接挂在前期高点的价格？
38:52 - 38:58
EN: Because the reversal up is so strong, he might think the breakout
ZH: 因为反转上涨太强势了，空头认为突破的幅度可能会大于8 ticks，10 ticks
38:56 - 38:58
EN: might be bigger than 8 ticks, might be bigger than 10 ticks,
ZH: 因为反转上涨太强势了，空头认为突破的幅度可能会大于8 ticks，10 ticks
38:58 - 39:01
EN: and therefore you don’t want to sell exactly at that high.
ZH: 所以他们不想把卖单挂在前期高点
39:01 - 39:05
EN: You want to sell at least as big as the smallest prior breakout,
ZH: 而是想留出最小突破的幅度
39:05 - 39:08
EN: so at least 8 ticks above this high.
ZH: 所以把卖单挂在前期高点上方8 ticks的地方
39:09 - 39:12
EN: If a trader is disappointed by the size and strength of the breakout,
ZH: 突破非常强势，如果空头感到失望的话
39:12 - 39:15
EN: he can then place an order to get out breakeven,
ZH: 他可以在入场价格挂限价买单
39:15 - 39:19
EN: and he would’ve been able to get out without a loss on the open of the next day.
ZH: 第2天开盘的时候，他可以成功地不亏离场
39:19 - 39:23
EN: If he scaled in more, he’d have a profit on his second entry,
ZH: 如果他在上方加仓做空，那么加仓的部分能够赚钱
39:23 - 39:25
EN: and he’d get out breakeven on his first.
ZH: 初始仓位打平
39:30 - 39:34
EN: Again, if he was still short, he’d have to get out
ZH: 如果他继续持有，那就必须在双底牛旗的阳线上方离场
39:32 - 39:34
EN: on the Double Bottom bull flag,
ZH: 如果他继续持有，那就必须在双底牛旗的阳线上方离场
39:34 - 39:38
EN: especially since neither low fell below the breakout point.
ZH: 尤其是因为两次回调都没有回到突破点以下
39:38 - 39:40
EN: That is a sign of strong bulls.
ZH: 这说明多头很强壮
39:41 - 39:43
EN: We have an open gap after a strong breakout.
ZH: 强势突破之后，缺口保持开放
39:43 - 39:45
EN: The odds are the market’s going higher.
ZH: 大概率市场还会上涨
Slide 021
Time: 39:50
Bilingual Transcript
39:50 - 39:53
EN: You always have to have a plan to take profits,
ZH: 你总是需要一个止盈的计划
39:53 - 39:57
EN: and the bulls like to take profits at or above the prior high.
ZH: 多头喜欢在前期高点或创新高的时候止盈
Slide 022
Time: 39:58
Bilingual Transcript
40:03 - 40:07
EN: Some bulls take their profits based upon the size of prior breakouts.
ZH: 一些多头根据前期突破的幅度来设置目标位
40:07 - 40:10
EN: So instead of exiting exactly at the prior high,
ZH: 他们不会把限价卖单直接挂在前期高点
40:10 - 40:14
EN: they’ll look at how big the prior high is above the high before it,
ZH: 而是观察之前创新高之后的突破幅度有多少
40:14 - 40:17
EN: and then they’ll look for a similar result this time.
ZH: 然后预期这次也会有相近的涨幅
40:21 - 40:25
EN: A 10 tick breakout, 17 tick breakout, 8 tick breakout.
ZH: 之前突破的高度是10 ticks，17 ticks，8 ticks
40:30 - 40:33
EN: If a bull bought this reversal up, he might get out at this high,
ZH: 如果多头在反转上涨时买入，他们可以把止盈的卖单挂在前期高点
40:33 - 40:37
EN: but he also might get out instead at 8 ticks above it.
ZH: 也可以挂在前期高点上方8 ticks的地方
40:37 - 40:41
EN: Maybe even 17 ticks above it, given how strong the reversal up is.
ZH: 或者，考虑到突破这么强势，甚至可以挂在前期高点上方17 ticks的地方
40:46 - 40:49
EN: Once the market has this strong reversal up,
ZH: 当看到市场强势反转上涨
40:49 - 40:52
EN: it’s more likely that the market is either back into a bull trend
ZH: 此时它很有可能重新回到上涨趋势
40:52 - 40:54
EN: or simply in a Trading Range.
ZH: 也可能只是震荡区间
41:02 - 41:06
EN: Because the reversal up is strong, he sees how far the prior breakouts went
ZH: 因为反转上涨很强势，多头参考之前每次突破的幅度，
41:06 - 41:11
EN: before they reversed; he’ll try to take profits
ZH: 预期这次也会有相同的涨幅，并在那里设置止盈卖单
41:08 - 41:11
EN: around that same number of ticks above this high.
ZH: 预期这次也会有相同的涨幅，并在那里设置止盈卖单
41:12 - 41:16
EN: For example, taking profits at 8 ticks up or twice 8 ticks,
ZH: 例如，放在前期高点上方8 ticks，或者8 ticks的两倍（即16 ticks）
41:16 - 41:19
EN: or around 17 ticks up would make sense.
ZH: 或者放在上方17 ticks也是合理的
41:20 - 41:22
EN: Instead of taking profits exactly at this high,
ZH: 不用正好在前期高点的价格止盈
41:22 - 41:25
EN: you can bet that the breakout will go further up,
ZH: 你可以押注突破之后会进一步上涨
41:25 - 41:30
EN: just like it went above here, and this went above there by 10 ticks.
ZH: 就像之前这里，它超过前期高点10 ticks
Slide 023
Time: 41:35
Bilingual Transcript
41:35 - 41:40
EN: A bull trend needs Higher Lows, especially major Higher Lows,
ZH: 上涨趋势需要低点不断抬高，尤其是重要的低点
41:40 - 41:42
EN: and as long as the market is staying above a major Higher Low,
ZH: 只要重要的低点不被跌破
41:42 - 41:47
EN: it’s still in a bull trend – even if there are strong selloffs in the bull trend.
ZH: 上涨趋势就仍然成立——就算上涨途中有深度回调
41:47 - 41:53
EN: 2nd Leg Traps are common in Trading Ranges and in Broad Channels.
ZH: 第2段陷阱在震荡区间和宽通道中很常见
41:53 - 41:57
EN: A Broad Bull Channel is basically a Trading Range that’s tilted up slightly.
ZH: 宽上涨通道基本上就是一个略微向上倾斜的震荡区间
41:57 - 42:02
EN: Very often you’ll get one leg up, a pullback, and then an even stronger leg up,
ZH: 经常会有第1段上涨、回调、然后更强势的第2段上涨
42:02 - 42:05
EN: and traders believe that the market is becoming a very strong bull trend.
ZH: 很多交易者以为要进入强上涨趋势了
42:06 - 42:10
EN: Much more likely it’s trapping traders into buying high,
ZH: 更有可能的是，追涨的多头会被套牢
42:10 - 42:12
EN: and then the market will reverse.
ZH: 然后市场反转下跌（注：太坏了）
42:13 - 42:16
EN: Bears sometimes sell in Broad Bull Channels.
ZH: 在宽上涨通道中，空头也有做空的机会
42:16 - 42:19
EN: They’ll sell at and above prior highs using a wide stop.
ZH: 他们在前期高点上方卖出做空，并使用较宽的初始止损
42:19 - 42:20
EN: Some will scale in.
ZH: 一些空头还会加仓
42:21 - 42:25
EN: Bulls will take profits above prior highs or at prior highs,
ZH: 多头会在前期高点及它的上方止盈
42:25 - 42:31
EN: and a lot of times they’ll base the profit-taking location
ZH: 很多时候，他们会根据前期突破的幅度来决定止盈的目标位
42:28 - 42:31
EN: based upon the size of prior breakouts.
ZH: 很多时候，他们会根据前期突破的幅度来决定止盈的目标位
42:35 - 42:37
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
42:37 - 42:39
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
42:39 - 42:43
EN: This is the fourth of five videos on trading Broad Bull Channels.
ZH: 如何交易宽上涨通道的第4节课，就先讲到这里