al-brooks-course
48D - Trading the Open
Raw transcript and slide notes for 48D - Trading the Open.
Overview
- Slides: 21
- Transcript segments: 561
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:09
EN: This is the fourth of six videos on trading the open.
ZH: 这是早盘的第4节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:12
Bilingual Transcript
00:13 - 00:16
EN: I want to talk about two particular BreakOut Mode patterns
ZH: 我主要想讲两种特殊的突破模式
00:16 - 00:17
EN: that are fairly common.
ZH: 它们非常常见
00:18 - 00:21
EN: First I’m going to be talking about a pattern that I call BreakOut Mode.
ZH: 第一种模式，我专门称之为“突破模式”（BOM） （注：所有震荡区间都是突破模式，这里特指早盘的一种特殊模式）
00:21 - 00:30
EN: With that, what I mean is after the first bar there’s a new high
ZH: 意思是：以第1根K线的最高、最低点为界， 向上突破失败、反转下跌；向下跌破也失败、反转上涨
00:25 - 00:30
EN: that reverses down, and a new low below the first bar that reverses up.
ZH: 意思是：以第1根K线的最高、最低点为界， 向上突破失败、反转下跌；向下跌破也失败、反转上涨
00:30 - 00:32
EN: Either one can come first.
ZH: 顺序不重要 （注：两个方向的突破都失败，于是形成震荡区间）
00:32 - 00:36
EN: Traders then look for a breakout either above the high or the low,
ZH: 再次向上或者向下跌破的时候
00:37 - 00:41
EN: and they expect the breakout to last for about a Measured Move.
ZH: 交易者预期突破成功、持续到MM目标位
00:41 - 00:46
EN: Next I want to talk about the breakout of the first 18 bars of the day.
ZH: 然后我会讲到突破前18根K线的范围
00:46 - 00:53
EN: At the end of 18 bars, there is a 90% chance that the day has seen
ZH: 在第18根K线收盘之后， 90%的概率当天的最高或最低点其中一个已经出现了
00:51 - 00:58
EN: either the high or low of the day, and a lot of traders
ZH: 在第18根K线收盘之后， 90%的概率当天的最高或最低点其中一个已经出现了 很多交易者会在前18根K线的范围被突破时入场
00:54 - 00:58
EN: will enter a breakout of the first 18 bars of the day.
ZH: 很多交易者会在前18根K线的范围被突破时入场
Slide 002
Time: 00:59
Bilingual Transcript
01:06 - 01:08
EN: We have a rally here on the open and then a Trading Range,
ZH: 开盘上涨，然后进入震荡区间
01:08 - 01:12
EN: and any time you have a Trading Range, the market’s in BreakOut Mode.
ZH: 每当你看到震荡区间，市场就处于突破模式
01:12 - 01:14
EN: Here’s a selloff and then a Trading Range.
ZH: 右图，开盘下跌，然后进入震荡
01:14 - 01:18
EN: However, I’m not talking about this kind of a pattern today.
ZH: 不过今天我们讲的不是这种行情
01:18 - 01:22
EN: I’m talking about a breakout pattern that begins immediately on the open,
ZH: 今天讲的是一开盘就形成的突破模式
01:22 - 01:25
EN: not after an initial rally, or an initial selloff.
ZH: 而不是在上涨或下跌波段之后的震荡区间
01:36 - 01:42
EN: You can look at the videos on trading breakouts to see
ZH: 在突破相关的章节中，我详细讲解了如何交易这种背景下的震荡区间
01:39 - 01:42
EN: how to trade Trading Ranges in this kind of a circumstance.
ZH: 在突破相关的章节中，我详细讲解了如何交易这种背景下的震荡区间
Slide 003
Time: 01:45
Bilingual Transcript
01:48 - 01:50
EN: There are two patterns here that I want to discuss.
ZH: 这里我想讲两个模式
01:50 - 01:53
EN: The first one I call BreakOut Mode (the one on the left).
ZH: 左边这个我称之为突破模式
01:58 - 02:04
EN: After the first 10 bars, I want to see a move
ZH: 在开盘10根K线后，价格突破第1根K线的最高点，反转下跌；
02:01 - 02:04
EN: above the high of the first bar and then a reversal down,
ZH: 在开盘10根K线后，价格突破第1根K线的最高点，反转下跌；
02:04 - 02:07
EN: a move below the low of the first bar, and then a reversal up.
ZH: 跌破第1根K线的最低点，反转上涨
02:08 - 02:10
EN: Either can come first.
ZH: 顺序并不重要
02:10 - 02:13
EN: Traders then look to buy on a stop above the high,
ZH: 然后，交易者会在高点上方挂突破买单
02:14 - 02:16
EN: or sell on a stop below the low.
ZH: 或者在低点下方挂突破卖单
02:16 - 02:20
EN: If they take the sell, they put their protective stop above the high.
ZH: 如果在向下跌破时做空，他们会把初始的保护性止损放在高点上方
02:20 - 02:23
EN: If they take the buy, their initial protective stop is below the low.
ZH: 如果在向上突破时做多，他们会把初始的保护性止损放在低点下方
02:25 - 02:29
EN: If the pattern occurs with fewer than 10 bars,
ZH: 如果小于10根K线，这个结构就没那么可靠；
02:29 - 02:37
EN: it’s less reliable, and if the opening range is more
ZH: 另外，如果开盘的震荡范围大于日K线平均振幅的一半
02:33 - 02:37
EN: than half of the size of an average day’s range,
ZH: 另外，如果开盘的震荡范围大于日K线平均振幅的一半
02:37 - 02:43
EN: the breakout is probably not going to lead to a Measured Move.
ZH: 那么突破之后就不一定能去到MM目标位， 更有可能是震荡区间日
02:40 - 02:43
EN: It’ll probably simply be a Trading Range day.
ZH: 那么突破之后就不一定能去到MM目标位， 更有可能是震荡区间日
02:43 - 02:49
EN: So you want the initial range to be
ZH: 所以开盘区间的范围最好小于日K线平均振幅的一半
02:44 - 02:49
EN: about half the size of an average recent day or less.
ZH: 所以开盘区间的范围最好小于日K线平均振幅的一半
02:55 - 02:59
EN: Today the bulls got a bull breakout above the reversal down,
ZH: 今天，价格向上突破了开盘区间的最高点
02:59 - 03:03
EN: and therefore the odds were that this would remain the low of the day,
ZH: 所以这大概率就是今天的最低点
03:03 - 03:08
EN: and that means that the day would either be a bull trend day,
ZH: 也就是说，今天要么是上涨趋势日，要么是震荡区间日
03:06 - 03:08
EN: or a Trading Range day.
ZH: 也就是说，今天要么是上涨趋势日，要么是震荡区间日
03:12 - 03:15
EN: The initial goal for the bulls is about a Measured Move up,
ZH: 多头的初始目标是开盘区间的MM目标位
03:15 - 03:18
EN: and sometimes it can be much more, sometimes less,
ZH: 有时候远远不止，有时候达不到
03:18 - 03:20
EN: but that’s a reasonable initial goal.
ZH: 但把它作为初始目标是合理的
03:21 - 03:26
EN: Remember, you’re buying the breakout because this initial range is about half
ZH: 你买入的原因是，开盘区间的范围小于日K线平均振幅的一半，
03:26 - 03:33
EN: or less the size of an average day’s range, and you’d expect the range to get up
ZH: 你预期价格至少上涨一倍，达到平时的振幅，所以是MM目标位
03:30 - 03:33
EN: to an average day’s range, and therefore a Measured Move up.
ZH: 你预期价格至少上涨一倍，达到平时的振幅，所以是MM目标位
03:37 - 03:41
EN: This black bar, the bear bar here, is the eighteenth bar of the day.
ZH: 这根黑色的阴线，是今天的第18根K线
03:42 - 03:48
EN: This is the low of the first 18 bars and this is the high
ZH: 这是前18根K线的最低点， 这是前18根K线的最高点——阴线前面的这根阳线
03:45 - 03:48
EN: of the first 18 bars, this bull bar before the bear bar.
ZH: 这是前18根K线的最低点， 这是前18根K线的最高点——阴线前面的这根阳线
03:48 - 03:53
EN: Some traders will also look to enter on a breakout of the 18 bar range.
ZH: 一些交易者也会在前18根K线范围被突破时入场
03:54 - 04:03
EN: Therefore, this particular BreakOut Mode pattern,
ZH: 因此，这个开盘特定的突破模式在突破之后， 也变成了前18根K线范围被突破的模式
03:58 - 04:03
EN: after its breakout also became a breakout of the 18 bar range,
ZH: 因此，这个开盘特定的突破模式在突破之后， 也变成了前18根K线范围被突破的模式
04:03 - 04:05
EN: which is the second pattern I’m going to talk about today.
ZH: 也就是今天要讲的第2种模式
04:08 - 04:13
EN: I look for the eighteenth bar of the day – here, it’s a little bull doji.
ZH: 我关注当天的第18根K线——这个小的多头十字星
04:13 - 04:21
EN: At the close of that eighteenth bar, there’s a 90% chance
ZH: 在第18根K线收盘后，90%的概率今天的最高或最低点其中一个已经出现了
04:17 - 04:21
EN: that he market has either seen the high for the day or the low for the day,
ZH: 在第18根K线收盘后，90%的概率今天的最高或最低点其中一个已经出现了
04:22 - 04:25
EN: and therefore traders look to trade a breakout of the range.
ZH: 所以交易者会在前18根K线范围被突破的时候入场
04:25 - 04:30
EN: If the eighteenth bar has a breakout a few bars later
ZH: 如果接下来的几根K线略微突破了前18根K线的范围，但立刻反转
04:29 - 04:36
EN: that immediately reverses, then you have to be thinking
ZH: 如果接下来的几根K线略微突破了前18根K线的范围，但立刻反转 那么你要考虑到，市场可能会朝着相反的方向突破
04:33 - 04:36
EN: that the market may break below the opposite side of the range,
ZH: 那么你要考虑到，市场可能会朝着相反的方向突破
04:36 - 04:38
EN: and then this would remain the high of the day.
ZH: 然后它就变成了今天的最高点
04:45 - 04:48
EN: Here, you have a breakout of the 18 bar range,
ZH: 这里，价格略微突破了前18根K线的最高点
04:48 - 04:52
EN: and a second failed breakout of this initial range.
ZH: 而且是第2次对开盘区间突破失败
04:53 - 04:56
EN: A reasonable sell looking for a swing down.
ZH: 做空押注下跌波段是合理的
04:59 - 05:04
EN: Alternatively, traders can sell with a stop on the break below the range.
ZH: 或者，空头可以在区间最低点下方挂突破卖单 （注：也就是在跌破最低点的时候入场做空）
05:05 - 05:11
EN: Small range, reversal down from around an hour and a half into the day.
ZH: 开盘区间很小，开盘一个半小时后价格反转下跌
05:11 - 05:13
EN: Traders will look to sell a breakout below the range,
ZH: 交易者会在跌破区间的时候做空
05:13 - 05:16
EN: and expect about a Measured Move down.
ZH: 并预期价格至少跌到MM目标位
05:16 - 05:18
EN: Here, the market fell for more than that.
ZH: 这一天的跌幅不止MM目标位
05:22 - 05:27
EN: Once the bears got their breakout, they knew there was a 90% chance
ZH: 一旦价格向下跌破，空头就知道，
05:27 - 05:30
EN: this would remain the high of the day, and that means that the day
ZH: 90%的概率这就是今天的最高点
05:30 - 05:34
EN: would either continue as a Trading Range day, or become a bear trend day.
ZH: 所以今天要么是震荡区间日，要么是下降趋势日
05:35 - 05:38
EN: Now, what about breaking above the 18 bar range here?
ZH: 那这里向上突破前18根K线的范围呢？
05:38 - 05:42
EN: Does that mean this had a 90% chance of being the low of the day?
ZH: 是否代表它有90%的概率就是今天的最低点？
05:42 - 05:46
EN: Well, at that instant when the market here went above the 18 bar range,
ZH: 在价格向上突破的那一刻
05:46 - 05:50
EN: it did have a 90% chance of remaining the low of the day – this bar.
ZH: 它确实有90%的概率是今天的最低点——这根K线
05:50 - 05:56
EN: But when it immediately reversed, that 90% quickly became more like 50/50,
ZH: 但价格立刻反转下跌，所以概率迅速变成了50对50
05:56 - 06:02
EN: and then once the bears got the bear breakout,
ZH: 当价格向下跌破之后，90%的概率它就是今天的最高点
05:58 - 06:02
EN: this had a 90% chance of remaining the high of the day.
ZH: 当价格向下跌破之后，90%的概率它就是今天的最高点
06:07 - 06:08
EN: Is this a BreakOut Mode pattern?
ZH: 这是突破模式吗？
06:08 - 06:11
EN: After the first bar we reversed up and we reversed down.
ZH: 在第1根K线之后，价格反转上涨，然后反转下跌
06:11 - 06:12
EN: No.
ZH: 不是
06:12 - 06:19
EN: So this is not one of these patterns because the reversal up
ZH: 它不是突破模式，因为没有跌破第1根K线的最低点再反转上涨
06:16 - 06:19
EN: did not come from below the low of the first bar.
ZH: 它不是突破模式，因为没有跌破第1根K线的最低点再反转上涨
06:19 - 06:22
EN: The reversal up here came from below the low.
ZH: 这里，跌破了第1根K线，再反转上涨
06:22 - 06:26
EN: The reversal down came from above the high of the first bar.
ZH: 但这里还没跌破就上涨了
06:26 - 06:29
EN: So technically this is not the same as this,
ZH: 所以理论上这两天是不一样的
06:29 - 06:33
EN: whereas this is both a BreakOut Mode pattern
ZH: 它既是开盘的突破模式
06:33 - 06:36
EN: and a breakout of an 18 bar range pattern.
ZH: 也是突破前18根K线范围的模式
Slide 004
Time: 06:40
Bilingual Transcript
06:43 - 06:47
EN: I’m going to be talking about these two common types
ZH: 我继续来讲这两种早盘常见的突破类型
06:45 - 06:47
EN: of breakouts on the open today.
ZH: 我继续来讲这两种早盘常见的突破类型
06:50 - 06:56
EN: We have an opening range, a bear breakout, and about a Measured Move down.
ZH: 开盘区间，向下跌破，最终跌到MM目标位
06:56 - 07:01
EN: Here we have an opening range and a bull breakout, and about a Measured Move up.
ZH: 这一天，开盘区间，向上突破，涨到MM目标位
07:09 - 07:16
EN: I said that traders want to see the reversal down come
ZH: 之前提到，交易者希望看到价格向上突破第1根K线，然后再反转下跌
07:14 - 07:16
EN: from above the high of the first bar.
ZH: 之前提到，交易者希望看到价格向上突破第1根K线，然后再反转下跌
07:16 - 07:21
EN: Well, for me, if the Trading Range begins on the fourth bar – the first, second,
ZH: 这里，今天的震荡区间其实是从第4根K线开始的
07:21 - 07:25
EN: third, or fourth bar – then I look for a breakout of that Trading Range,
ZH: 所以我会等待这个区间被突破
07:25 - 07:29
EN: and therefore while this is not a classic textbook BreakOut Mode pattern
ZH: 尽管它不是刚才讲到的教科书式的突破模式 （注：指从第1根K线开始的震荡区间）
07:29 - 07:34
EN: that I just described a moment ago, the Trading Range began on the fourth bar.
ZH: 因为区间是从第4根K线才开始的
07:34 - 07:36
EN: So I would still treat it like a BreakOut Mode bar.
ZH: 但我仍然会按照突破模式来交易它
07:37 - 07:39
EN: After a reversal down and a reversal up,
ZH: （以第4根K线为界）价格反转下跌，反转上涨
07:39 - 07:42
EN: traders will look to sell a breakout below, or a breakout above.
ZH: 交易者会在区间被跌破时做空，或者在向上突破时做多
07:42 - 07:47
EN: Some traders sold below this bar; others sold below this bar.
ZH: 一些空头在这根K线下方做空，一些交易者在它的下方做空
07:54 - 07:57
EN: This is the eighteenth bar of the day, this little bear doji bar.
ZH: 这个小十字星是今天的第18根K线
07:57 - 08:06
EN: At this point traders are looking to sell either a breakout
ZH: 此时，交易者等待向下跌破时做空， 或者在突破区间高点时买入做多，预期价格达到MM目标位
08:00 - 08:06
EN: below the low of the day, or buy a breakout
ZH: 此时，交易者等待向下跌破时做空， 或者在突破区间高点时买入做多，预期价格达到MM目标位
08:03 - 08:06
EN: above the high of the day, looking for a Measured Move.
ZH: 此时，交易者等待向下跌破时做空， 或者在突破区间高点时买入做多，预期价格达到MM目标位
08:07 - 08:11
EN: This is also a BreakOut Mode pattern as well.
ZH: 此外，它也是开盘的突破模式
08:11 - 08:15
EN: After the first bar we had a new low that reversed up,
ZH: 以第1根K线为界，价格从下往上反转，然后从上往下反转
08:14 - 08:15
EN: and a new high that reversed down.
ZH: 以第1根K线为界，价格从下往上反转，然后从上往下反转
08:16 - 08:18
EN: Not enough bars, not 10 bars.
ZH: 此时K线数量不够多，还不到10根K线
08:18 - 08:21
EN: At this point we have a Double Top and a reversal down.
ZH: 在这里，有一个双顶，价格反转下跌
08:21 - 08:23
EN: This point, there is 10 bars.
ZH: 此时开盘已经超过了10根K线
08:24 - 08:25
EN: Therefore we have what we need.
ZH: 所以满足了突破模式的要求
08:25 - 08:29
EN: We have a reversal up from below the low of the first bar,
ZH: 从第1根K线的低点下方反转上涨
08:29 - 08:31
EN: a reversal down from above the high of the first bar.
ZH: 从第1根K线的高点上方反转下跌
08:32 - 08:40
EN: The range of the opening range is about half the size
ZH: 开盘区间的范围大约是日K线平均振幅的一半， 而且区间里至少有10根K线
08:35 - 08:40
EN: of an average recent range, and we have at least 10 bars in the pattern.
ZH: 开盘区间的范围大约是日K线平均振幅的一半， 而且区间里至少有10根K线
08:40 - 08:43
EN: This is a good BreakOut Mode pattern.
ZH: 这是一个标准的突破模式
08:44 - 08:46
EN: This is an atypical pattern.
ZH: 而左边不是一个典型的突破模式
08:46 - 08:50
EN: Traders can either sell below this bar or below that bar, and as I said,
ZH: 交易者在这根K线，或那根K线下方卖出做空
08:50 - 08:54
EN: the Trading Range began on the fourth bar instead of the first bar.
ZH: 刚才讲过，这一天的震荡区间是从第4根K线开始的，不是第1根
08:54 - 08:57
EN: This is much less common than this type of a pattern.
ZH: 左图的模式比右图要少见得多
Slide 005
Time: 09:00
Bilingual Transcript
09:05 - 09:08
EN: After the first bar, the market made a new high, reversed down.
ZH: 在第1根K线之后，价格上涨创新高，反转下跌
09:08 - 09:10
EN: Made a new low, reversed up.
ZH: 下跌创新低，反转上涨
09:10 - 09:13
EN: The reversal here came after about 10 bars.
ZH: 这个时候开盘已经有10根K线左右了
09:13 - 09:17
EN: This is a classic textbook type of BreakOut Mode pattern.
ZH: 这是一个典型的、教科书式的突破模式
09:21 - 09:23
EN: Breakout of the opening range, closed above the high.
ZH: 突破了开盘区间，收盘在区间的上方
09:23 - 09:27
EN: Some traders will buy on a stop 1 tick above that high,
ZH: 一些交易者会在区间高点上方1个tick挂突破买单
09:27 - 09:31
EN: or they’ll buy the close, or they’ll buy the close of the follow-through bar
ZH: 或者他们在大阳线的收盘买入，或者在跟随阳线的收盘买入
09:31 - 09:33
EN: and put a protective stop down here.
ZH: 然后把保护性止损放在下方
09:36 - 09:40
EN: Their initial goal is about a Measured Move up, which they got.
ZH: 初始目标位是把区间高度往上翻一倍（MM目标位），在这里达到了
09:43 - 09:46
EN: A lot of traders will front run the pattern.
ZH: 很多交易者会抢跑
09:46 - 09:51
EN: By front run the pattern, I mean they expect the breakout to occur,
ZH: 抢跑的意思是：他们预期价格会突破， 所以在突破之前就入场了
09:50 - 09:51
EN: and they don’t wait for the breakout.
ZH: 抢跑的意思是：他们预期价格会突破， 所以在突破之前就入场了
09:51 - 09:52
EN: They enter early.
ZH: 也就是提前入场
09:52 - 09:55
EN: For example, after you’ve had a reversal down,
ZH: 例如，在反转下跌之后
09:55 - 09:59
EN: traders are going to look for a reversal up, especially below yesterday’s low.
ZH: 多头预期价格会从昨天低点下方反转上涨
09:59 - 10:01
EN: This is a Micro Double Bottom.
ZH: 这里有一个小双底
10:01 - 10:03
EN: This doji bar, it went down and up.
ZH: 这个十字星先下跌再上涨
10:03 - 10:06
EN: We went down on the bear bar, and now we’re going up again.
ZH: 这根阴线下跌，现在再次上涨
10:06 - 10:10
EN: Some traders will buy on a stop above here, expecting a breakout
ZH: 一些多头会在它的上方挂突破买单，
10:10 - 10:13
EN: of the opening range and a rally for about a Measured Move up.
ZH: 预期价格会突破开盘区间，并一直上涨到MM目标位
10:14 - 10:16
EN: Other traders would wait for this.
ZH: 一些交易者等到这里再入场
10:16 - 10:19
EN: We have the strong reversal up, and now we have a Triangle.
ZH: 强势的反转上涨，然后形成小三角形
10:20 - 10:21
EN: It’s an iii.
ZH: 这是iii结构（注：连续3根孕线）
10:21 - 10:25
EN: This bar is inside this bar, inside that bar, and this bar is inside that bar.
ZH: 它在它的里面，它在它的里面，它在它的里面
10:25 - 10:27
EN: You have a bull bar closing on its high.
ZH: 这根阳线收在高位
10:27 - 10:30
EN: Some traders will buy on a stop above this bull bar,
ZH: 一些多头会在它的上方挂突破买单
10:30 - 10:34
EN: knowing that if it gets above that bar, the odds are 60% or 70%
ZH: 因为如果价格突破这根K线的高点， 那么有60%、70%的概率
10:34 - 10:39
EN: that it will go above the high of the day, and trigger the BreakOut Mode entry.
ZH: 价格会突破开盘区间的高点，触发突破模式上方的买单
Slide 006
Time: 10:45
Bilingual Transcript
10:49 - 10:50
EN: BreakOut Mode.
ZH: 突破模式
10:50 - 10:52
EN: We have an early Trading Range.
ZH: 开盘有一个震荡区间
10:52 - 10:55
EN: The market went below the first bar, reversed up.
ZH: 向下跌破第1根K线，反转上涨
10:55 - 10:57
EN: Went above the first bar, reversed down.
ZH: 向上突破第1根K线，反转下跌
10:57 - 11:02
EN: The range is about half or less the size of a recent range.
ZH: 开盘区间的范围小于日K线平均振幅的一半
11:03 - 11:07
EN: There are only – what is this, about 7 bars in the range.
ZH: 目前区间里面只有7根K线
11:07 - 11:12
EN: That reduces the probability that breaking below the range
ZH: 这降低了突破区间之后能达到MM目标位的概率
11:10 - 11:12
EN: or breaking above the range will lead to a Measured Move.
ZH: 这降低了突破区间之后能达到MM目标位的概率
11:12 - 11:15
EN: The market usually has to go sideways more.
ZH: 通常市场需要再横盘一段时间
11:24 - 11:28
EN: Once you’ve had the two reversals – here we have the reversal down
ZH: 一旦看到两次反转——在这次反转下跌之后
11:28 - 11:32
EN: - there’s a 50% chance you’ll get a successful breakout above the high,
ZH: 50%的概率会成功向上突破
11:32 - 11:36
EN: 50% chance you’ll get a successful breakout below the low.
ZH: 50%的概率会成功向下突破
11:36 - 11:40
EN: That’s why I call it BreakOut Mode, because that’s what BreakOut Mode means.
ZH: 这就是我称之为突破模式的原因
11:40 - 11:43
EN: Equal probability of a breakout up or down.
ZH: 向上、向下突破的概率是相等的
11:45 - 11:49
EN: Traders can sell below the low, even though the pattern is small.
ZH: 尽管目前结构比较小，交易者可以在这个低点下方挂突破卖单
11:49 - 11:52
EN: They might wait for a second reversal up
ZH: 一些人会等第2次反转上涨
11:52 - 11:56
EN: after the market has had about 10 bars, and then sell below this low.
ZH: 此时区间已经超过了10根K线， 他们在这个低点下方挂突破卖单
11:56 - 12:00
EN: You can see a lot of traders sold as it was going down below that low.
ZH: 可以看到，在跌破这个低点的时候，非常多的人在卖出
12:08 - 12:09
EN: Strong selloff.
ZH: 强势的抛售
12:09 - 12:10
EN: Breakout to a new low.
ZH: 跌破创新低
12:10 - 12:14
EN: Some traders will look to sell about a 50% pullback
ZH: 一些空头会在50%反弹附近卖出
12:14 - 12:17
EN: or on a reversal down from resistance.
ZH: 或者在价格遇到阻力、反转下跌时卖出
12:17 - 12:21
EN: 50% pullback is resistance, and then testing this high.
ZH: 50%反弹是阻力，同时也是在测试前期高点
12:21 - 12:25
EN: We have a reversal up here and then the market sold off.
ZH: 之前反弹到这个价格，然后下跌
12:26 - 12:28
EN: Some bears will sell a reversal down from there,
ZH: 再次遇到阻力，空头在反转下跌的时候入场做空
12:28 - 12:31
EN: especially since this is a Micro Double Top.
ZH: 尤其这里还有一个小双顶
12:31 - 12:35
EN: We went down, up, and then down again with a good sell signal bar here.
ZH: 下跌、上涨；然后再次下跌，而且有好多做空信号K
12:35 - 12:40
EN: Therefore, there’s a Double Top, and the second top has a Micro Double Top
ZH: 所以这是一个双顶熊旗，右边的高点本身也是小双顶
12:40 - 12:44
EN: and about a 50% pullback from the breakout below the BreakOut Mode pattern.
ZH: 也是突破模式被跌破之后的50%反弹
12:44 - 12:46
EN: Reasonable to take that sell.
ZH: 在这里做空是合理的
12:47 - 12:51
EN: Sometimes when you get a breakout like this and you get a reversal up,
ZH: 有时在跌破之后，价格反转上涨
12:51 - 12:54
EN: the market can become Always In Long – and it probably was here.
ZH: 市场可能会进入单边上涨——这里确实有点像
12:54 - 12:59
EN: We had 4 consecutive bull bars, 8 bars or so without a bear body.
ZH: 连续4根阳线，而且这8根K线中好像没有阴线
12:59 - 13:01
EN: It probably was Always In Long.
ZH: 市场一度在单边上涨
13:01 - 13:05
EN: However, traders expect a resumption of the bear trend,
ZH: 但空头预期下降趋势恢复，他们在等待做空的机会
13:04 - 13:05
EN: and they’re looking to sell.
ZH: 但空头预期下降趋势恢复，他们在等待做空的机会
13:10 - 13:11
EN: Bear breakout.
ZH: 向下跌破
13:11 - 13:15
EN: Especially once we’ve had this bear breakout, 90% chance this will remain
ZH: 尤其是这里跌破之后，90%的概率它就是今天的高点
13:15 - 13:21
EN: the high of the day, and that means that the day
ZH: 也就是说今天要么是震荡区间日，要么是下降趋势日
13:18 - 13:21
EN: will either be a Trading Range day or a bear trend day.
ZH: 也就是说今天要么是震荡区间日，要么是下降趋势日
13:21 - 13:22
EN: 90% certain.
ZH: 有90%的确定性
Slide 007
Time: 13:25
Bilingual Transcript
13:31 - 13:40
EN: When the range is small like this, in terms of the number of bars here
ZH: 如果区间这么小——就K线数量而言，只有7根K线； 两次反转在7根K线之内就完成了
13:34 - 13:40
EN: - it’s only 7 bars; we’ve had a reversal down and a reversal up in 7 or 8 bars
ZH: 如果区间这么小——就K线数量而言，只有7根K线； 两次反转在7根K线之内就完成了
13:40 - 13:44
EN: a lot of times traders think that the range has to grow.
ZH: 很多时候交易者认为还需要再震荡一会儿
13:44 - 13:46
EN: They’re not eager to sell below the low,
ZH: 因此他们不会急着在低点下方卖出做空
13:46 - 13:49
EN: especially since this is a Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 尤其因为这可能是潜在的双底牛旗——
13:49 - 13:53
EN: We have a gap up and a rally and a pullback to the Moving Average.
ZH: 跳空高开、高走，然后回调到均线
13:53 - 13:55
EN: Slightly Lower Low, but it’s a Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 这个低点略微更低一些，可能是双底牛旗
13:55 - 13:59
EN: This is a reasonable buy setup looking for a swing up,
ZH: 这里买入做多、押注上涨波段是合理的
13:59 - 14:00
EN: and it began as a good swing up.
ZH: 而且一开始确实涨得不错
14:05 - 14:09
EN: We started to sell off, so we have a reversal down
ZH: 价格开始下跌； 之前反转下跌——
14:09 - 14:13
EN: - two reversals down from above yesterday’s high, here and again here.
ZH: 两次从昨天高点上方反转下跌，第一次是这里，然后这里
14:13 - 14:16
EN: That is reason enough to take this sell.
ZH: 所以在这里做空也是合理的
14:16 - 14:19
EN: But anyway, after the first bar, new high, reverses down,
ZH: 总之，突破第1根K线的高点，反转下跌
14:19 - 14:22
EN: and then after about 10 bars we have a reversal up.
ZH: 然后震荡超过了10根K线，反转上涨
14:22 - 14:25
EN: This is a more reliable BreakOut Mode pattern.
ZH: 这是一个更可靠的突破模式
14:25 - 14:29
EN: Also, the range is still about half of an average recent range.
ZH: 此外，区间高度仍然是最近日K线平均振幅的一半左右
14:29 - 14:32
EN: You can see yesterday – you cannot see the bars to the left,
ZH: 可以看到昨天的振幅，尽管看不到更早以前的行情
14:32 - 14:36
EN: but this is about half of the average recent range.
ZH: 但这个区间的高度大约是最近日K线平均振幅的一半
14:38 - 14:42
EN: Therefore it’s a good stop entry sell looking for a swing down.
ZH: 因此在这里用突破卖单做空是合理的，押注会有下跌波段
14:42 - 14:45
EN: You can either sell on a stop below the range,
ZH: 可以直接在区间低点下方挂突破卖单
14:45 - 14:49
EN: you can wait for the breakout bar and sell the close if it looks good,
ZH: 可以等待突破K线收盘，如果是大阴线，就在它的收盘卖出
14:49 - 14:51
EN: you can sell the close of the follow-through bar,
ZH: 可以在跟随阴线的收盘卖出
14:51 - 14:53
EN: or you can wait for a pullback maybe to the Moving Average,
ZH: 或者可以在价格反弹到均线的时候卖出
14:53 - 14:56
EN: and then sell a breakout below the bear flag.
ZH: 或者在跌破熊旗时卖出
Slide 008
Time: 14:59
Bilingual Transcript
15:02 - 15:04
EN: After the first bar we went to a new low.
ZH: 在第1根K线之后，先向下跌破
15:04 - 15:06
EN: This low is below the low of the first bar.
ZH: 它跌破了第1根K线的低点
15:06 - 15:08
EN: We went to a new high above the first bar.
ZH: 然后向上突破第1根K线的高点
15:08 - 15:12
EN: We reversed up, we reversed down, but the pattern is only 4 bars.
ZH: 反转上涨，反转下跌，但此时只有4根K线
15:13 - 15:16
EN: A lot of traders will not consider that a good enough BreakOut Mode pattern,
ZH: 很多交易者认为这样的突破模式不够好
15:16 - 15:19
EN: and therefore they’re not going to buy on a stop above the high,
ZH: 所以他们不会在高点上方挂突破买单
15:19 - 15:21
EN: and they’re not going to sell on a stop below the low,
ZH: 也不会在低点下方挂突破卖单
15:21 - 15:23
EN: unless the pattern first gets bigger.
ZH: 而是等区间继续震荡
15:28 - 15:29
EN: And it did, here.
ZH: 确实继续震荡了
15:29 - 15:31
EN: New low, reversed up.
ZH: 新低，反转上涨
15:31 - 15:33
EN: New high, reversed down, but too small,
ZH: 新高，反转下跌，但K线太少
15:33 - 15:43
EN: and now it reversed down here, and it’s more like 10 bars.
ZH: 现在价格再次反转下跌，开盘已经有10根K线了， 此时在跌破时做空的胜率更高
15:38 - 15:43
EN: I think it’s 9 bars, but that’s still a higher probability sell below here,
ZH: 现在价格再次反转下跌，开盘已经有10根K线了， 此时在跌破时做空的胜率更高
15:43 - 15:47
EN: and a higher probability buy above here, after we get that reversal down.
ZH: 或者在突破高点时做多的胜率更高——在这次反转下跌之后
15:55 - 15:57
EN: Would I buy up here on a stop?
ZH: 我会在这个高点上方挂突破买单做多吗？ （注：指前4根K线的高点）
15:57 - 15:58
EN: I would not.
ZH: 不会
15:58 - 16:02
EN: It’s a Tight Trading Range and it’s a continuation
ZH: 这是一个窄震荡区间，而且是昨天尾盘震荡区间的延续
16:01 - 16:02
EN: of yesterday’s Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 这是一个窄震荡区间，而且是昨天尾盘震荡区间的延续
16:02 - 16:05
EN: You’re buying near the top of a Tight Trading Range,
ZH: 做多的话，是买在窄震荡区间的上沿
16:05 - 16:09
EN: and the close of the breakout bar could not even close
ZH: 而且这根阳线并没有能够收盘在开盘区间的高点上方
16:08 - 16:09
EN: above the high of the range.
ZH: 而且这根阳线并没有能够收盘在开盘区间的高点上方
16:10 - 16:12
EN: This is more of a limit order market.
ZH: 此时更像是限价单市场
16:12 - 16:15
EN: Traders are more likely to bet against the breakout
ZH: 更多交易者在押注突破失败——
16:15 - 16:18
EN: - in other words, sell at that high and sell more higher
ZH: 在前期高点挂单做空，并且在上方加仓
16:18 - 16:21
EN: - than buying at the high betting on a Measured Move up.
ZH: 而不是在高位追涨，押注突破成功、涨到MM目标位
16:25 - 16:28
EN: Now we’ve had 10 bars, close to 10 bars.
ZH: 现在开盘差不多有10根K线了
16:28 - 16:34
EN: Traders are more willing to sell on a stop, but it’s still selling
ZH: 更多人愿意用突破卖单入场， 但仍然可能是卖在窄震荡区间的底部
16:32 - 16:38
EN: at the bottom of a Tight Trading Range, and a lot of traders
ZH: 更多人愿意用突破卖单入场， 但仍然可能是卖在窄震荡区间的底部 所以很多人宁愿等反弹再做空，而不是在跌破新低时追空
16:35 - 16:38
EN: would rather sell a pullback instead of the breakout.
ZH: 所以很多人宁愿等反弹再做空，而不是在跌破新低时追空
16:38 - 16:40
EN: For example, Micro Double Top here.
ZH: 例如，这里有一个小双顶
16:40 - 16:41
EN: They might sell below that bear bar.
ZH: 空头会在那根阴线下方卖出
16:41 - 16:44
EN: They might sell with a limit order at the Moving Average.
ZH: 他们会在价格反弹到均线时卖出
16:44 - 16:46
EN: They might sell above this bear bar,
ZH: 他们会在这根阴线上方挂限价卖单做空
16:46 - 16:50
EN: arguing it’s a bad bull flag after this reversal up.
ZH: 押注在反弹之后，这不是一个好的牛旗
16:55 - 16:59
EN: We have a bear breakout, closed below the low of the opening range.
ZH: 大阴线向下跌破，收盘价低于开盘区间的最低点
16:59 - 17:00
EN: Good for the bears.
ZH: 对空头有利
17:00 - 17:04
EN: The follow-through bar had a bear body, and that is the minimum follow-through
ZH: 跟随K线也是阴线，这是最低要求了
17:04 - 17:08
EN: that the bears need to believe the market is going lower,
ZH: 这样空头才对市场进一步下跌更有信心
17:08 - 17:11
EN: and therefore some bears will sell the close of the follow-through bar,
ZH: 所以一些空头会在跟随阴线的收盘卖出做空
17:13 - 17:18
EN: looking for about a Measured Move down
ZH: 押注价格继续跌到MM目标位——把开盘区间的高度往下翻一倍
17:16 - 17:18
EN: based upon the height of the opening range.
ZH: 押注价格继续跌到MM目标位——把开盘区间的高度往下翻一倍
17:18 - 17:23
EN: You can see the day’s low is just about exactly a Measured Move down.
ZH: 可以看到，今天的最低点正好是MM目标位
Slide 009
Time: 17:25
Bilingual Transcript
17:32 - 17:35
EN: After the first bar we got a new low and reversed up.
ZH: 第1根K线之后，从低点下方反转上涨
17:35 - 17:37
EN: We have a new high, reversed down.
ZH: 再从高点上方反转下跌
17:37 - 17:40
EN: Too small.
ZH: 结构太小了——只有3根K线
17:38 - 17:40
EN: The pattern is only 3 bars.
ZH: 结构太小了——只有3根K线
17:40 - 17:47
EN: Traders will wait for another reversal, and therefore they’ll only look at this
ZH: 需要再反转一次才能算是突破模式， 交易者把这次下跌看作是第1次反转，忽略第2根K线的反转上涨
17:44 - 17:47
EN: as a reversal down, and they will ignore the reversal up.
ZH: 需要再反转一次才能算是突破模式， 交易者把这次下跌看作是第1次反转，忽略第2根K线的反转上涨
17:47 - 17:51
EN: Reversal down, reversal up, so now BreakOut Mode
ZH: 反转下跌，反转上涨，现在符合突破模式了
17:51 - 17:53
EN: - and the bulls got the breakout.
ZH: 然后价格向上突破
17:59 - 18:03
EN: But as I said several times, that does not mean bull trend.
ZH: 之前讲过，突破不代表今天就会一直上涨——
18:03 - 18:06
EN: It means either bull trend or Trading Range.
ZH: 要么是上涨趋势，要么是震荡区间
18:06 - 18:09
EN: The chance of a bear trend is small at that point.
ZH: 此时，今天是下降趋势日的概率很低
18:10 - 18:13
EN: Therefore bulls either buy the breakout or they buy pullbacks.
ZH: 所以要么在突破时买入，要么在回调时买入
18:13 - 18:14
EN: Here we have a Triangle.
ZH: 这里有一个三角形
18:14 - 18:16
EN: Reversal up, reversal up, reversal up.
ZH: 上涨，上涨，上涨
18:16 - 18:20
EN: Here we have about a 50% pullback from the initial rally.
ZH: 这里大约是早盘上涨波段的50%回调
18:20 - 18:25
EN: They’ll buy the reversal up betting that either the day
ZH: 多头会在恢复上涨时买入，押注今天要么是上涨趋势，要么是震荡区间
18:23 - 18:25
EN: will be a bull trend or a Trading Range.
ZH: 多头会在恢复上涨时买入，押注今天要么是上涨趋势，要么是震荡区间
18:25 - 18:28
EN: This day remained mostly a Trading Range.
ZH: 市场震荡上行直到收盘
Slide 010
Time: 18:30
Bilingual Transcript
18:36 - 18:39
EN: New low after the first bar, reversed up.
ZH: 跌破第1根K线的低点，反转上涨
18:39 - 18:42
EN: New high, reversed down, and we have about 10 bars,
ZH: 突破第1根K线的高点，反转下跌，开盘已经有大约10根K线了
18:42 - 18:45
EN: and the breakout’s coming after about 10 bars.
ZH: 又过了10根K线，价格向上突破
18:45 - 18:47
EN: Reasonable to buy the high.
ZH: 突破时追涨是合理的
18:47 - 18:50
EN: The range is about half of an average day’s range.
ZH: 开盘区间的高度大约是日K线平均振幅的一半
18:56 - 19:02
EN: Before the breakout, the bears see a new low reversing up,
ZH: 在向上突破之前，空头看到从新低价格反转上涨，又从新高反转下跌
19:00 - 19:02
EN: a new high reversing down.
ZH: 在向上突破之前，空头看到从新低价格反转上涨，又从新高反转下跌
19:02 - 19:04
EN: Some bears will sell this.
ZH: 一些空头会在这里做空
19:04 - 19:05
EN: It’s reasonable.
ZH: 这是合理的
19:05 - 19:07
EN: You have a Double Top below the Moving Average,
ZH: 反弹到均线附近形成双顶
19:07 - 19:09
EN: so a Double Top bear flag, possible high of the day.
ZH: 所以可能是双顶熊旗，它可能就是今天的最高点
19:09 - 19:12
EN: However, most of those bears will get out above this bull bar.
ZH: 然而，大多数空头会在这个阳线上方离场
19:12 - 19:17
EN: We have a reversal up, second failed breakout below yesterday’s low.
ZH: 这根大阳线是第2次从昨天的低点下方反转上涨
19:17 - 19:21
EN: Reversed up, reversed up again, so that’s good for the bulls.
ZH: 第1次，第2次，所以多头更有优势
19:21 - 19:24
EN: The bears taking this short need the market to go down.
ZH: 空头希望价格向下跌破
19:24 - 19:26
EN: They know the bulls will buy a reversal up,
ZH: 否则多头就会在反转上涨时买入
19:26 - 19:29
EN: and the bulls did get another reversal up here.
ZH: 多头确实得到了一个买入的机会
19:29 - 19:31
EN: This is a reasonable swing buy.
ZH: 这个十字星的上方是合理的买入点
19:32 - 19:35
EN: The bears who sold here, most of them would get out here,
ZH: 之前在做空的空头，大多数会在这里离场
19:35 - 19:37
EN: and that’s why this bar looks like this.
ZH: 所以才会形成这样的大阳线
19:37 - 19:41
EN: The bears bought back their shorts, and the bulls bought a Higher Low reversal,
ZH: 因为空头买入回补，同时多头买入做多
19:41 - 19:44
EN: so it’s a Double Bottom Higher Low Major Trend Reversal,
ZH: 这是低点抬高的双底大反转机会
19:44 - 19:48
EN: after a second reversal up from below yesterday’s low.
ZH: 左边已经两次从昨天低点下方反转上涨 （注：两次尝试跌破昨天低点失败）
19:52 - 19:57
EN: BreakOut Mode traders will simply buy on a stop
ZH: 按照突破模式交易的多头会直接把突破买单挂在开盘区间的高点上方
19:55 - 19:59
EN: above the high of the opening range, looking for a Measured Move up
ZH: 按照突破模式交易的多头会直接把突破买单挂在开盘区间的高点上方 预期价格突破之后会涨到MM目标位
20:01 - 20:04
EN: - and they got about a Measured Move up, a little bit more.
ZH: 价格确实涨到了MM目标位，还略微超过一点
20:08 - 20:11
EN: This is fairly common, for swing traders to take multiple entries.
ZH: 波段交易者经常需要多次尝试
20:11 - 20:15
EN: Some bulls would’ve bought above this bear bar or above this bull bar
ZH: 一些交易者会在这根阴线，或这根阳线上方买入
20:15 - 20:17
EN: for a second failed breakout below yesterday’s low,
ZH: 因为价格两次尝试跌破昨天最低点失败
20:17 - 20:20
EN: and the bears would then sell here, bulls would buy here.
ZH: 一些空头会在这里做空，多头会在这里买入
20:20 - 20:23
EN: A lot of times on the open, when you’re looking for a swing,
ZH: 在早盘寻找波段机会的时候
20:23 - 20:28
EN: you end up taking one or two entries in both directions
ZH: 在抓到波段之前可能需要在每个方向都尝试一两次
20:26 - 20:28
EN: before you ultimately get the swing.
ZH: 在抓到波段之前可能需要在每个方向都尝试一两次
20:28 - 20:35
EN: You get some small losers, some small winners
ZH: 前几次尝试有一些小赚、小亏，最终赚到大的波段
20:31 - 20:35
EN: on the initial entries, and then you finally get a swing.
ZH: 前几次尝试有一些小赚、小亏，最终赚到大的波段
Slide 011
Time: 20:40
Bilingual Transcript
20:44 - 20:47
EN: After the first bar we got a new low, reversed up.
ZH: 跌破第1根K线的低点，反转上涨
20:47 - 20:49
EN: New high, reversed down.
ZH: 新高，反转下跌
20:49 - 20:54
EN: That’s the minimum needed for the market to get an early Trading Range.
ZH: 这是早盘震荡区间的最低要求
21:04 - 21:08
EN: In general, you want the Trading Range to be reasonably long.
ZH: 通常，震荡区间里的K线不能太少
21:08 - 21:10
EN: 10 bars is the reasonable guide.
ZH: 至少要10根K线左右
21:10 - 21:12
EN: Sometimes it’s only 4 or 5 bars.
ZH: 偶尔只有四五根K线
21:12 - 21:20
EN: You also want the range to be at least 30% of the height
ZH: 区间的高度最好是日K线平均振幅的30%，不要超过50%
21:16 - 21:20
EN: of an average daily range, but not more than 50%.
ZH: 区间的高度最好是日K线平均振幅的30%，不要超过50%
21:20 - 21:24
EN: If this opening range is more than half of an average day’s range,
ZH: 如果区间高度大于日K线平均振幅的50%
21:24 - 21:31
EN: and then you get a breakout, the day is probably going to remain
ZH: 那么价格就算突破，接下来也更有可能继续震荡， 而不是达到MM目标位
21:28 - 21:31
EN: in a Trading Range, and not go for a Measured Move.
ZH: 那么价格就算突破，接下来也更有可能继续震荡， 而不是达到MM目标位
21:39 - 21:40
EN: Opening range in BreakOut Mode.
ZH: 开盘区间，突破模式
21:40 - 21:44
EN: Bulls will buy on a stop above, bears will sell on a stop below.
ZH: 多头在高点上方挂突破买单， 空头在低点下方挂突破卖单
21:47 - 21:49
EN: The bears got their breakout.
ZH: 最终价格向下跌破
Slide 012
Time: 21:55
Bilingual Transcript
21:57 - 22:01
EN: Other traders will sell on a stop below the pullback after the breakout.
ZH: 一些交易者会在反弹之后，在K线下方挂突破卖单做空
22:02 - 22:04
EN: Here, it’s a Double Top bear flag.
ZH: 比如这个双顶熊旗
22:04 - 22:06
EN: It’s also a Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 也可以看作是高点降低的大反转
22:06 - 22:08
EN: Bull trend, strong bear breakout.
ZH: 上涨趋势，强势跌破趋势线
22:08 - 22:14
EN: Couple legs up – one, pullback, two – and a second entry short
ZH: 两段反弹——1，回调，2； 而且是第2做空入场点——1，2；
22:12 - 22:16
EN: - one and then two – and a Double Top Lower High.
ZH: 两段反弹——1，回调，2； 而且是第2做空入场点——1，2； 低于前期高点的双顶熊旗
22:16 - 22:18
EN: Reasonable swing short.
ZH: 合理的波段做空入场点
22:23 - 22:25
EN: As I said, this is a reasonable buy for the bulls.
ZH: 之前讲过，多头在这里买入也是合理的
22:25 - 22:30
EN: It’s a 50% pullback of the rally from yesterday’s close,
ZH: 这里是50%回调——从昨天的收盘价开始算
22:30 - 22:34
EN: and it’s a Double Bottom with this low at the Moving Average.
ZH: 也是回调到均线附近的双底牛旗
22:34 - 22:35
EN: It’s a reasonable buy.
ZH: 买入做多是合理的
22:35 - 22:41
EN: It’s common for the market to become Always In Long,
ZH: 尽管市场总体上在下跌，但途中经常会暂时处于单边上涨 （注：通道阶段）
22:39 - 22:41
EN: even when the market’s in the swing short.
ZH: 尽管市场总体上在下跌，但途中经常会暂时处于单边上涨 （注：通道阶段）
22:42 - 22:43
EN: That’s what happened here.
ZH: 就比如这里的情况
22:43 - 22:51
EN: So a lot of the bears who sold here would get out immediately
ZH: 很多空头入场做空之后，会立刻在这根阳线上方离场， 因为这可能是均线附近的双底牛旗
22:47 - 22:51
EN: above this strong bull bar, knowing that it’s a Double Bottom bull flag
ZH: 很多空头入场做空之后，会立刻在这根阳线上方离场， 因为这可能是均线附近的双底牛旗
22:51 - 22:53
EN: at the Moving Average, and a possible low of the day.
ZH: 它有可能就是今天的最低点
22:53 - 22:57
EN: But if they did, they can sell again below this bear bar.
ZH: 对于提前离场的空头来说，他们可以在这根阴线下方再次卖出做空
23:03 - 23:12
EN: Or they can sell again as the market again falls below the initial range
ZH: 或者在价格第2次跌破开盘区间最低点的时候再次入场（粉色框框）， 或者在这个低点下方卖出做空
23:08 - 23:12
EN: (this pink box), or they can sell a breakout below that low.
ZH: 或者在价格第2次跌破开盘区间最低点的时候再次入场（粉色框框）， 或者在这个低点下方卖出做空
23:17 - 23:18
EN: Strong breakout.
ZH: 强势的跌破
23:18 - 23:20
EN: Probably get at least one more leg down.
ZH: 很大的概率还有至少一段下跌
23:20 - 23:22
EN: Traders will therefore sell a pullback.
ZH: 所以空头会在反弹时卖出做空
23:23 - 23:26
EN: We have a bear flag at the Moving Average; they’ll sell a reversal down.
ZH: 反弹到均线形成熊旗，在阴线下方卖出做空
23:26 - 23:31
EN: Two legs up here.
ZH: 这里有两段反弹，依旧是熊旗， 连续阴线，在它们的收盘卖出做空
23:28 - 23:31
EN: Same thing, bear flag, series of bear bars.
ZH: 这里有两段反弹，依旧是熊旗， 连续阴线，在它们的收盘卖出做空
23:30 - 23:31
EN: Sell closes.
ZH: 这里有两段反弹，依旧是熊旗， 连续阴线，在它们的收盘卖出做空
23:31 - 23:33
EN: Sell for any reason.
ZH: 可以用任何方式入场做空
Slide 013
Time: 23:35
Bilingual Transcript
23:39 - 23:42
EN: You can see, very steep Moving Average.
ZH: 可以看到，均线非常陡峭
23:42 - 23:45
EN: This is a gap down from below yesterday’s close,
ZH: 这一天大幅跳空，低开在昨天的最低点下方
23:45 - 23:46
EN: now we’re getting a reversal up.
ZH: 现在价格正在反转上涨
23:50 - 23:53
EN: After the first bar we have a new high, reversal down.
ZH: 然后又从第1根K线的高点上方反转下跌
23:53 - 23:54
EN: We have a reversal up.
ZH: 之前从下方反转上涨
23:54 - 23:57
EN: BreakOut Mode, but the range is big.
ZH: 所以是突破模式，但区间太宽了
23:57 - 23:59
EN: You do not see the bar to the left,
ZH: 这里看不到左边的K线
23:59 - 24:02
EN: but the range is big relative to the prior bar.
ZH: 但和前几天的振幅相比，这个区间的高度已经很大了
24:07 - 24:09
EN: Therefore, traders expect a Trading Range
ZH: 所以交易者预期震荡区间会继续
24:09 - 24:12
EN: and they’ll look for breakouts to fail.
ZH: 他们预期突破会失败
24:12 - 24:15
EN: They’ll buy on a reversal up, or a second entry buy here.
ZH: 他们会在反转上涨时买入，尤其是第2做多入场点
24:16 - 24:19
EN: Finally, when the breakout occurs late in the day like this,
ZH: 如果很晚才突破，比如这一天
24:19 - 24:21
EN: it’s usually going to fail.
ZH: 突破通常不会成功
24:21 - 24:24
EN: When the market’s sideways for the first 4 hours or so,
ZH: 市场在开盘之后宽幅震荡了4个小时
24:24 - 24:28
EN: it usually is not going to become a big trend day late in the day,
ZH: 通常不会在尾盘形成很大的趋势
24:28 - 24:32
EN: and therefore traders will expect breakouts to fail and reverse.
ZH: 所以交易者预期突破会失败、反转
Slide 014
Time: 24:54
Bilingual Transcript
24:57 - 25:00
EN: When traders think that a breakout’s going to take place,
ZH: 如果交易者预期突破会成功
25:00 - 25:05
EN: a lot of times they’ll front run the breakout.
ZH: 很多时候他们会抢跑——也就是在突破之前就入场
25:03 - 25:05
EN: In other words, they’ll enter before the breakout.
ZH: 很多时候他们会抢跑——也就是在突破之前就入场
25:08 - 25:14
EN: For example, here we have a reversal up from a new low after the first bar
ZH: 例如，价格从第1根K线的低点下方反转上涨
25:14 - 25:18
EN: and we have a reversal down, so the market’s in BreakOut Mode.
ZH: 然后从高点上方反转下跌，因此市场处于突破模式
25:18 - 25:20
EN: This selloff, as strong as it is,
ZH: 尽管下跌非常强势
25:20 - 25:25
EN: is simply a Higher Low pullback after this strong reversal up.
ZH: 但可能只是左边上涨的深度回调
25:25 - 25:28
EN: A lot of traders are going to bet that this will remain the low of the day,
ZH: 很多交易者会押注这就是今天的最低点
25:28 - 25:31
EN: and instead of looking to buy on a stop above the high,
ZH: 他们不愿意在创新高时追涨 （注：因为区间太大了，更有可能是通道式上涨，而不是特别强势的突破）
25:31 - 25:34
EN: they’ll buy a second entry buy here.
ZH: 更愿意在这个第2做多入场点买入
25:35 - 25:40
EN: Remember, this trend line tells us
ZH: 均线告诉我们这一天是大幅跳空低开的，所以是下降趋势
25:37 - 25:40
EN: that this is a big gap down and therefore a bear trend.
ZH: 均线告诉我们这一天是大幅跳空低开的，所以是下降趋势
25:40 - 25:44
EN: Very strong bull breakout, and this is a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal,
ZH: 第1次反转上涨非常强势，现在是低点抬高的大反转机会
25:44 - 25:45
EN: and a second entry buy.
ZH: 而且是第2做多入场点
25:46 - 25:50
EN: Traders often will take this buy, and not wait to buy the breakout.
ZH: 很多交易者会在这里提前买入，而不是等突破了再追涨
25:53 - 25:57
EN: The market rallied, tested that high and reversed down.
ZH: 价格上涨，测试了前期高点，反转下跌
25:57 - 25:59
EN: Reversed down from the 60-minute Moving Average.
ZH: 也是从60分钟的均线反转下跌
25:59 - 26:03
EN: This is the 20 bar exponential Moving Average on the 60-minute chart.
ZH: 这条虚线是60分钟图上的EMA20
26:03 - 26:05
EN: I have it drawn on the 5-minute chart.
ZH: 我把它移植到了5分钟图上
26:05 - 26:09
EN: The market reversed down, reversed down, reversed down, reversed down.
ZH: 市场反转下跌，反转下跌，反转下跌，反转下跌
26:09 - 26:13
EN: The bulls are going to give up, which they did here.
ZH: 遇到阻力，多头再次放弃
26:13 - 26:15
EN: Bears know that the bulls are giving up.
ZH: 空头知道多头无法突破
26:15 - 26:19
EN: They can see all the failures at the 60-minute Moving Average,
ZH: 他们看到，每次涨到60分钟的EMA20就反转下跌
26:19 - 26:21
EN: and the bears will therefore look to sell.
ZH: 所以空头会等待做空的机会
Slide 015
Time: 26:25
Bilingual Transcript
26:26 - 26:30
EN: I want to talk a little bit more about the breakout of the 18 bar range.
ZH: 我想再讲一讲前18根K线范围的突破模式
Slide 016
Time: 26:31
Bilingual Transcript
26:40 - 26:45
EN: Here we have two reversals down from above yesterday’s high and a gap up.
ZH: 跳空高开之后，两次从昨天的最高点上方反转下跌
26:45 - 26:46
EN: Good sell signal bar.
ZH: 不错的做空信号K
26:46 - 26:50
EN: It’s a reasonable sell looking for a swing down.
ZH: 做空押注下跌波段是合理的
26:50 - 26:55
EN: However, big gap up – even if you do get a strong selloff on the open,
ZH: 然而，只要是大幅跳空高开，就算开盘有强势的抛售
26:55 - 26:59
EN: a lot of traders will look for an opening reversal, a reversal up from support,
ZH: 很多多头会等待恢复上涨的做多机会，尤其是在支撑位——
26:59 - 27:04
EN: like the Moving Average or the low of the gap up.
ZH: 比如均线，或者开盘的最低点
27:10 - 27:14
EN: Therefore they’ll look to buy a reversal up from around the Moving Average.
ZH: 因此，他们会在均线附近等待反转上涨的做多机会
27:15 - 27:17
EN: A good-looking bull bar, a Double Bottom.
ZH: 漂亮的阳线，双底
27:17 - 27:19
EN: Maybe slightly Lower Low.
ZH: 略微比它低一点点
27:19 - 27:22
EN: A weak selloff, bad follow-through after bear bars.
ZH: 下跌并不强势，因为所有阴线后面的跟随都很糟糕
27:22 - 27:24
EN: A 50% pullback of this rally.
ZH: 也是左边上涨波段的50%回调
27:25 - 27:28
EN: This is a reasonable buy for the low of the day.
ZH: 买入做多，押注这是今天的最低点是合理的
27:29 - 27:31
EN: It’s also Bar 18.
ZH: 这也是第18根K线
27:31 - 27:35
EN: Remember I said that if the market breaks below the low of the 18 bar range,
ZH: 还记得吗，如果价格跌破前18根K线的最低点，
27:35 - 27:37
EN: it probably will not get above the high of the day,
ZH: 那么今天的最高点大概率已经出现了
27:37 - 27:40
EN: and if it breaks above the high of the 18 bar range,
ZH: 如果突破了前18根K线的最高点
27:40 - 27:43
EN: that probably means the low of the day is in.
ZH: 那么今天的最低点大概率已经出现了
27:43 - 27:44
EN: It will not break below the low.
ZH: 不会再向下跌破
27:45 - 27:55
EN: Therefore, when the market gets to be around Bar 18
ZH: 所以，在第18根K线附近——15，16，17，18，19，20， 如果价格正好处于低位
27:49 - 27:55
EN: - Bar 15, Bar 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 – and if it’s near the low of the day,
ZH: 所以，在第18根K线附近——15，16，17，18，19，20， 如果价格正好处于低位
27:55 - 27:57
EN: bulls are going to buy a reversal up,
ZH: 多头会在反转上涨时买入
27:57 - 27:59
EN: betting on a breakout above the 18 bar range.
ZH: 押注价格不会突破前18根K线的最高点
28:00 - 28:04
EN: Likewise, if it’s near the high of the day around Bar 18,
ZH: 同理，如果在第18根K线附近，价格处于当天的高位
28:04 - 28:06
EN: bears will look to sell a reversal down,
ZH: 空头会在反转下跌时卖出做空
28:06 - 28:10
EN: betting that instead of getting a breakout above the 18 bar range,
ZH: 押注价格不会向上突破创新高
28:10 - 28:13
EN: the market’s going to reverse down, and break below the 18 bar range.
ZH: 而是会反转下跌，并跌破前18根K线的最低点
28:22 - 28:29
EN: Other traders will simply wait for the breakout and they’ll buy with a stop
ZH: 一些交易者则是耐心等待突破，在前18根K线的高点上方挂突破买单， 或者等突破之后在回调时买入
28:25 - 28:29
EN: above the high of the 18 bar range, or they’ll buy pullbacks.
ZH: 一些交易者则是耐心等待突破，在前18根K线的高点上方挂突破买单， 或者等突破之后在回调时买入
28:29 - 28:38
EN: Once they have this breakout, only a 10% chance the market’s
ZH: 一旦向上突破，只有10%的概率会反转下跌创新低， 所以今天要么是上涨趋势，要么是震荡区间
28:33 - 28:38
EN: going to break below this low, and therefore the day
ZH: 一旦向上突破，只有10%的概率会反转下跌创新低， 所以今天要么是上涨趋势，要么是震荡区间
28:36 - 28:38
EN: is either going to be a bull trend or a Trading Range.
ZH: 一旦向上突破，只有10%的概率会反转下跌创新低， 所以今天要么是上涨趋势，要么是震荡区间
28:38 - 28:43
EN: In either case, if it goes sideways to down, it probably will reverse back up.
ZH: 不论是哪种情况，就算价格下跌，大概率还会涨回来的
28:43 - 28:45
EN: Bulls will therefore buy a reversal up.
ZH: 所以多头会在恢复上涨时买入做多
Slide 017
Time: 28:50
Bilingual Transcript
28:53 - 28:56
EN: This is the eighteenth bar of the day and we’re near the high of the day.
ZH: 这是第18根K线，价格处于当天的高点
28:57 - 29:02
EN: Therefore, some traders will sell a reversal down, betting that the market
ZH: 所以空头会在反转下跌时卖出做空
29:02 - 29:06
EN: will fall below the low of the day, and fall for a Measured Move down.
ZH: 押注价格会跌破今天的最低点，并一直跌到MM目标位
29:07 - 29:09
EN: The market reversed up pretty strongly here,
ZH: 左边的上涨比较强势
29:09 - 29:14
EN: and therefore taking a sell here is a relatively low probability bet.
ZH: 所以在这里做空的胜率并不高
29:14 - 29:16
EN: But the risk is small as well.
ZH: 但风险也同样很小
29:16 - 29:25
EN: If a trader sells below this bar, it’s a Micro Double Top and a Double Top
ZH: 如果在这根K线下方卖出做空——小双顶， 同时和它在均线附近形成双顶，也是左边下跌波段的50%反弹
29:20 - 29:25
EN: around the Moving Average, around a 50% pullback from yesterday’s selloff.
ZH: 如果在这根K线下方卖出做空——小双顶， 同时和它在均线附近形成双顶，也是左边下跌波段的50%反弹
29:25 - 29:26
EN: The risk is small.
ZH: 风险很小
29:26 - 29:30
EN: You sell below the low of this bar, you get filled here, put your stop above.
ZH: 你在这根K线的低点下方挂突破卖单，订单在这里成交，止损放在上方
29:30 - 29:34
EN: Small risk, and that compensates for the low probability.
ZH: 风险很小（注：且潜在利润很大），弥补了胜率的不足
29:42 - 29:47
EN: Around the eighteenth bar, if you get a reversal down
ZH: 在第18根K线附近，如果价格处于当天的高位并开始反转下跌， 这是一个合理的做空机会
29:45 - 29:47
EN: and you’re near the high of the day, reasonable sell.
ZH: 在第18根K线附近，如果价格处于当天的高位并开始反转下跌， 这是一个合理的做空机会
29:47 - 29:51
EN: Or you can wait to sell the breakout below the low of the day.
ZH: 或者可以在跌破当天最低点的时候入场做空
29:58 - 30:05
EN: The bears who take the sell on the breakout sell 1 tick
ZH: 把突破卖单挂在当天低点下方1个tick， 预期价格会继续下跌到MM目标位
30:01 - 30:05
EN: below the low of the day, looking for about a Measured Move down.
ZH: 把突破卖单挂在当天低点下方1个tick， 预期价格会继续下跌到MM目标位
30:09 - 30:11
EN: These bears have a higher probability of making money.
ZH: 在这里做空有更高的胜率
30:12 - 30:16
EN: However, whenever you have higher probability, your risk/reward is worse.
ZH: 然而，每当胜率更高的时候，盈亏比就会变差
30:16 - 30:18
EN: Usually your stop is further away.
ZH: 因为止损会更远
30:18 - 30:20
EN: It’s a reasonable tradeoff.
ZH: 合理地用盈亏比换取胜率
30:20 - 30:23
EN: These bears are selling a high probability trade;
ZH: 等突破再做空的空头获得了更高的胜率
30:23 - 30:27
EN: these bears are selling a low probability trade, but with very good risk/reward.
ZH: 而这里提前入场的空头胜率没那么高，但盈亏比很好
30:27 - 30:29
EN: Both are reasonable sells.
ZH: 两者都是合理的
30:32 - 30:34
EN: Strong reversal up.
ZH: 强势反转上涨
30:34 - 30:36
EN: Two legs down – one, pullback, two.
ZH: 两段下跌——1，反弹，2
30:36 - 30:38
EN: Failed breakout below the day’s low.
ZH: 跌破前期低点后反转上涨
30:38 - 30:42
EN: But market’s Always In Long, and a weak selloff to a Higher Low
ZH: 市场进入单边上涨，回调形成抬高的低点
30:42 - 30:45
EN: testing the buy signal bar high here or here.
ZH: 测试做多信号K线的高点——这里或这里
30:45 - 30:47
EN: A 50% pullback of this reversal.
ZH: 也是反转上涨之后的50%回调
30:47 - 30:51
EN: It’s reasonable to buy this or a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal,
ZH: 把它看作低点抬高的大反转，买入做多是合理的
30:51 - 30:53
EN: and the low of the day.
ZH: 押注今天的最低点已经出现
30:57 - 31:01
EN: Whenever you have a reversal after a big selloff,
ZH: 每当市场在大幅抛售之后反转上涨
31:02 - 31:04
EN: the market will often get up to the high of the day,
ZH: 价格通常会涨回到当天的最高点附近
31:04 - 31:08
EN: sometimes above, but rarely will you get a big trend day.
ZH: 有时候会略微超过一些，但很难变成大的上涨趋势日
31:09 - 31:12
EN: Whenever the initial move is very big and then you get a reversal,
ZH: 如果早盘的趋势非常大，然后反转
31:13 - 31:17
EN: usually you end up with a Trading Range day – a swing down and a swing up.
ZH: 通常最后会变成震荡区间日——波段下跌、波段上涨
31:17 - 31:23
EN: If it goes the other way, if there’s an initial rally that is about the size
ZH: 反过来也是一样，如果早盘大幅上涨， 已经达到了平均振幅，然后反转下跌
31:21 - 31:23
EN: of an average day’s range and you get a reversal down,
ZH: 反过来也是一样，如果早盘大幅上涨， 已经达到了平均振幅，然后反转下跌
31:23 - 31:26
EN: usually you’re not going to fall much below the low of the day.
ZH: 通常不会大幅跌破起涨点
31:27 - 31:29
EN: Most reversal days become Trading Range days.
ZH: 大部分反转日最终是震荡区间日
31:29 - 31:32
EN: Here we got a big selloff, we reversed up.
ZH: 比如这一天早盘大跌，然后反转上涨
31:32 - 31:34
EN: If we got a big rally and reversed down,
ZH: 如果是先大涨，然后反转下跌
31:34 - 31:37
EN: it probably would remain a Trading Range day as well.
ZH: 最终大概率也是震荡区间日
Slide 018
Time: 31:40
Bilingual Transcript
31:46 - 31:47
EN: Big gap down.
ZH: 大幅跳空低开
31:47 - 31:49
EN: Reversed up from below yesterday’s low,
ZH: 从昨天低点下方反转上涨
31:49 - 31:52
EN: reversed up a second time from below yesterday’s low.
ZH: 第2次从昨天低点下方反转上涨
31:53 - 31:55
EN: Reasonable to buy here or here.
ZH: 在这里或这里买入做多是合理的
31:55 - 31:58
EN: If you did, you probably would either have lost money,
ZH: 如果买入了，要么会被止损离场
31:58 - 32:03
EN: or if you used a wide stop, you could’ve made money
ZH: 要么使用宽止损——尤其如果能在下方加仓的话——可以赚钱
32:02 - 32:03
EN: - especially if you could scale in lower.
ZH: 要么使用宽止损——尤其如果能在下方加仓的话——可以赚钱
32:03 - 32:08
EN: Anyway, at this point we have a Double Top bear flag,
ZH: 总之，在这个时候，上面有双顶熊旗， 但是还没有完全反弹回到均线
32:07 - 32:08
EN: not quite at the Moving Average.
ZH: 总之，在这个时候，上面有双顶熊旗， 但是还没有完全反弹回到均线
32:08 - 32:12
EN: Not a high probability short, especially after 2 good bull bars.
ZH: 所以不是胜率很高的做空机会，尤其左边是两根漂亮的阳线
32:12 - 32:15
EN: This is I think low probability trading.
ZH: 在这里交易的胜率不是很高——
32:15 - 32:17
EN: Buying above this bar, selling below that bull bar.
ZH: 在这根K线上方买入，在那根阳线下方卖出
32:17 - 32:21
EN: Buying above the bear doji, selling below the bear doji.
ZH: 在这个十字星上方买入，在那个十字星下方卖出
32:21 - 32:25
EN: Low probability trading, a lot of traders will wait for clarity.
ZH: 都是低胜率的交易，所以更多人会等待明确的信号
32:25 - 32:29
EN: What they have here is a third push down with a very good bull bar,
ZH: 这里是第3次向下推动，而且有非常不错的阳线
32:29 - 32:31
EN: so now it’s a Wedge Bottom with a very good bull bar.
ZH: 所以是楔形底，加上好的做多信号K
32:31 - 32:35
EN: It’s a reasonable buy on a stop above that high.
ZH: 在它的高点上方买入做多是合理的
32:37 - 32:40
EN: This is the eighteenth bar of the day, this bull bar.
ZH: 这根阳线，就是今天的第18根K线
32:40 - 32:44
EN: Therefore the low of the 18 bar range is here,
ZH: 所以前18根K线的范围，是从这个低点，到这个高点
32:43 - 32:44
EN: the high of the 18 bar range is here.
ZH: 所以前18根K线的范围，是从这个低点，到这个高点
32:44 - 32:46
EN: Reasonable to take this buy.
ZH: 在这里提前买入是合理的
32:46 - 32:51
EN: You’re front running the breakout of the eighteenth bar,
ZH: 押注会向上突破前19根K线的范围，后来确实成功了
32:49 - 32:51
EN: which you ultimately got.
ZH: 押注会向上突破前19根K线的范围，后来确实成功了
32:58 - 33:03
EN: Once you get that breakout, only a 10% chance
ZH: 一旦成功突破，只有10%的概率会反转跌破这个低点
33:01 - 33:03
EN: you’re going to fall below the low of the day.
ZH: 一旦成功突破，只有10%的概率会反转跌破这个低点
33:03 - 33:07
EN: Therefore the day is either going to be a bull trend day,
ZH: 所以今天要么是上涨趋势日，要么是震荡区间日
33:05 - 33:07
EN: or a Trading Range day.
ZH: 所以今天要么是上涨趋势日，要么是震荡区间日
33:07 - 33:09
EN: This turned out to be a weak bull day.
ZH: 最终，是一个弱上涨趋势日
33:09 - 33:12
EN: Traders bought reversals up from selloffs.
ZH: 更适合在回调时逢低买入 （复习：一旦发现是通道，就应该逢低买入）
33:20 - 33:23
EN: After the first bar, we reversed down and we reversed up.
ZH: 在第1根K线之后，价格反转下跌，再反转上涨
33:23 - 33:24
EN: We reversed down again.
ZH: 再次反转下跌
33:24 - 33:26
EN: It’s a BreakOut Mode pattern.
ZH: 所以是突破模式
33:26 - 33:27
EN: Some bears might sell here.
ZH: 一些空头可能会在这里做空
33:27 - 33:28
EN: You can see the big bear bar.
ZH: 所以形成了这根大阴线
33:28 - 33:37
EN: But when it immediately reverses up like this and you see a Wedge
ZH: 但价格立刻反转上涨，所以变成了楔形底——1，2，3； 此时空头离场、多头入场
33:33 - 33:37
EN: - up, up, up – most bears would get out and most bulls would buy.
ZH: 但价格立刻反转上涨，所以变成了楔形底——1，2，3； 此时空头离场、多头入场
33:46 - 33:53
EN: Even with these reversals, the first reversal down and up
ZH: 尽管已经有两次反转，但这个时候只有5根K线，结构太小了
33:50 - 33:53
EN: - only a 5 bar pattern or so, and too small.
ZH: 尽管已经有两次反转，但这个时候只有5根K线，结构太小了
33:53 - 33:55
EN: Most traders will not trade that.
ZH: 大部分交易者不会急于入场
33:55 - 34:01
EN: We have now a reversal up and a reversal down.
ZH: 再次反转下跌，多了几根K线，但结构仍然太小
33:58 - 34:01
EN: It’s a bigger pattern, but still fairly small.
ZH: 再次反转下跌，多了几根K线，但结构仍然太小
34:01 - 34:05
EN: Most traders are not going to sell on a breakout below the low.
ZH: 大多数交易者不会在跌破创新低时卖出做空
Slide 019
Time: 34:10
Bilingual Transcript
34:15 - 34:17
EN: This bull bar is the eighteenth bar of the day.
ZH: 这根阳线是今天的第18根K线
34:18 - 34:21
EN: Traders therefore will look to buy a breakout above the range,
ZH: 所以多头会在突破创新高的时候买入做多
34:21 - 34:26
EN: or a pullback from the breakout, and they’ll look to sell a breakout
ZH: 或者在突破后的回调时买入做多； 如果价格跌破创新低，或者跌破之后反弹，空头会卖出做空
34:24 - 34:26
EN: below the range, or a pullback from the breakout.
ZH: 或者在突破后的回调时买入做多； 如果价格跌破创新低，或者跌破之后反弹，空头会卖出做空
34:33 - 34:35
EN: Some traders will front run.
ZH: 一些交易者会提前入场
34:35 - 34:38
EN: We have a good reversal up here from below yesterday’s low,
ZH: 价格从昨天低点下方强势反转上涨
34:38 - 34:41
EN: and then a bull inside bar here for a second entry buy.
ZH: 然后这根多头孕线的上方是第2做多入场点
34:41 - 34:42
EN: Reasonable to buy.
ZH: 合理的买点
34:43 - 34:47
EN: Remember, if around Bar 18 the market’s near the low of the day
ZH: 如果在第18根K线附近，价格正好处于当天的低位
34:47 - 34:50
EN: and it’s reversing, especially a second reversal buy,
ZH: 然后开始反转上涨，尤其是出现第2做多入场点
34:50 - 34:56
EN: it’s reasonable to take the buy, betting that instead of a breakout
ZH: 买入做多是合理的，押注价格不会跌破前18根K线的范围， 而是会向上突破
34:53 - 34:56
EN: below the 18 bar range, we’ll break above the high.
ZH: 买入做多是合理的，押注价格不会跌破前18根K线的范围， 而是会向上突破
Slide 020
Time: 35:00
Bilingual Transcript
35:01 - 35:05
EN: Eighteenth bar of the day with multiple reversals,
ZH: 这是第18根K线，早盘价格来回反转了好几次
35:05 - 35:09
EN: and the range is relatively big relative to what we’ve been getting.
ZH: 而且相对于最近的振幅而言，这个区间已经很宽了
35:16 - 35:20
EN: Therefore, higher probability to bet on a Trading Range and failed breakouts.
ZH: 因此，押注震荡区间继续、押注突破失败，有更高的胜率
35:20 - 35:26
EN: So instead of selling at a low of the day here, it’s better to look to buy,
ZH: 相比在创新低的时候追空，不如寻找买入做多的机会
35:26 - 35:28
EN: especially if there’s a Micro Double Bottom – and there is.
ZH: 尤其如果有小双低的话——比如这里
35:28 - 35:32
EN: Bear bar, we went up, we went down, and we went up again.
ZH: 阴线，上涨，下跌，然后再次上涨
35:32 - 35:36
EN: Reasonable to buy on a stop above that bull bar, or even above that bear bar.
ZH: 在那根阳线上方，甚至是那根阴线上方，买入做多是合理的
35:43 - 35:46
EN: We went down, we went up.
ZH: 下跌，上涨
35:46 - 35:47
EN: We went down more, up more.
ZH: 更大的下跌，更大的上涨
35:47 - 35:50
EN: Down more, up more, down more.
ZH: 更大的下跌，更大的上涨，更大的下跌
35:50 - 35:52
EN: So it’s a growing Expanding Triangle,
ZH: 扩张三角形变得越来越大
35:52 - 35:54
EN: and that is another reason to take this buy.
ZH: 这是另一个买入做多的理由
35:54 - 36:01
EN: It’s actually a reason to take this sell, but with this strong reversal up
ZH: 在这里做空也是合理的，但由于左边的反转上涨非常强势 （注：且没有小双顶 / 第2做空入场点）
35:58 - 36:04
EN: after this strong reversal up, a lot of traders are not going
ZH: 在这里做空也是合理的，但由于左边的反转上涨非常强势 （注：且没有小双顶 / 第2做空入场点） 所以很多人不会在这里做空，尽管做空也是合理的
36:02 - 36:04
EN: to take that sell, although it’s reasonable.
ZH: 所以很多人不会在这里做空，尽管做空也是合理的
36:09 - 36:13
EN: Today I talked about two types of Trading Range patterns that come on the open.
ZH: 今天我讲解了早盘两种常见的突破模式
Slide 021
Time: 36:10
Bilingual Transcript
36:13 - 36:15
EN: The first I call BreakOut Mode.
ZH: 第1种我专门称之为突破模式（BOM）
36:15 - 36:23
EN: For BreakOut Mode, I’m looking for a new high that reverses down,
ZH: 意思是，以第1根K线的高低点为界， 向上突破失败，向下突破也失败
36:19 - 36:23
EN: and then a new low below the low of the first bar that reverses up.
ZH: 意思是，以第1根K线的高低点为界， 向上突破失败，向下突破也失败
36:23 - 36:28
EN: Ideally, the second reversal occurs on the tenth bar or later,
ZH: 第2次突破失败后的反转最好发生在第10根K线之后
36:28 - 36:34
EN: and this opening range is about half the size
ZH: 而且开盘区间的高度最好是最近平均振幅的一半或更小
36:32 - 36:34
EN: of an average recent day’s range or less.
ZH: 而且开盘区间的高度最好是最近平均振幅的一半或更小
36:35 - 36:40
EN: Then next I talked about the breakout of the range of the first 18 bars.
ZH: 然后我讲解了前18根K线范围的突破
36:40 - 36:48
EN: In either of these breakouts, once you get the breakout,
ZH: 不管向上还是向下突破，90%的概率，市场不会再反转朝着另一个方向突破了
36:43 - 36:48
EN: 90% chance the market’s not going to break out
ZH: 不管向上还是向下突破，90%的概率，市场不会再反转朝着另一个方向突破了
36:46 - 36:48
EN: beyond the opposite side of the day.
ZH: 不管向上还是向下突破，90%的概率，市场不会再反转朝着另一个方向突破了
36:48 - 36:55
EN: So for example, if you get a bull breakout, 90% chance the day
ZH: 例如，如果向上突破了前18根K线的范围， 90%的概率当天要么是上涨趋势日，要么是震荡区间日
36:52 - 36:55
EN: will either be a bull day or a Trading Range day.
ZH: 例如，如果向上突破了前18根K线的范围， 90%的概率当天要么是上涨趋势日，要么是震荡区间日
36:55 - 37:00
EN: If you get a bear breakout, 90% chance the day
ZH: 如果向下突破，90%的概率当天要么是下降趋势日，要么是震荡区间日
36:58 - 37:00
EN: will either be a Trading Range or a bear day.
ZH: 如果向下突破，90%的概率当天要么是下降趋势日，要么是震荡区间日
37:04 - 37:05
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
37:05 - 37:08
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
37:08 - 37:12
EN: This is the fourth of six videos on trading the open.
ZH: 早盘的第4节课就先讲到这里