al-brooks-course
30E - Trader’s Equation and Probability
Raw transcript and slide notes for 30E - Trader’s Equation and Probability.
Overview
- Slides: 25
- Transcript segments: 549
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:10
EN: This is the fifth of five videos on the Trader’s Equation and probability.
ZH: 这是数学期望和概率的最后1节课（共5节）
Slide 001
Time: 00:11
Bilingual Transcript
00:13 - 00:21
EN: Believe it or not, every trader is 90% certain
ZH: 信不信由你，每个交易者都觉得自己有90%的把握可以达到目标位， 我觉得这非常有趣
00:16 - 00:21
EN: that they will reach their profit target, and I think that’s interesting.
ZH: 信不信由你，每个交易者都觉得自己有90%的把握可以达到目标位， 我觉得这非常有趣
00:21 - 00:24
EN: Most traders do not think about it, but when the market gets very close
ZH: 大多数交易者也许不会想到这个问题： 当市场非常接近你的目标时，
00:24 - 00:30
EN: to your target, your stop is far away, yet you continue
ZH: 你的止损已经距离很远了， 但你仍然继续持有，并且依赖这个初始止损
00:28 - 00:30
EN: to hold your position and rely on your stop.
ZH: 你的止损已经距离很远了， 但你仍然继续持有，并且依赖这个初始止损
00:30 - 00:35
EN: You can only do that if you’re 90% certain
ZH: 除非你有90%的把握，市场会先达到目标位， 而不是先打掉你的止损，否则就不能这么做
00:33 - 00:35
EN: that your target will be hit before your stop will be hit.
ZH: 除非你有90%的把握，市场会先达到目标位， 而不是先打掉你的止损，否则就不能这么做
00:36 - 00:40
EN: I think it’s really important to understand the 40% to 60% Rule.
ZH: 我认为理解40-60法则非常重要
00:40 - 00:45
EN: During 90% of the bars on any chart, traders can buy or sell at any time
ZH: 任何K线图上，90%的K线，交易者可以随时做多或做空
00:45 - 00:49
EN: and make money if they manage their trades correctly.
ZH: 只要管理得当，就可以赚钱
00:50 - 00:54
EN: Finally, I want to talk about the probability within a Trading Range.
ZH: 最后，我会讲一讲震荡区间内的概率
00:54 - 00:59
EN: It’s high for the bears near the top; it’s high for the bulls near the bottom.
ZH: 在顶部附近，空头的胜率高； 在底部附近，多头的胜率高；
Slide 002
Time: 01:01
Bilingual Transcript
01:04 - 01:08
EN: Let’s say you bought a 50% pullback from this bull breakout,
ZH: 假设你在这个多头突破的50%回调买入
01:08 - 01:11
EN: and you’re looking to take profits on a test of the high.
ZH: 你期待在测试前期高点时止盈
01:13 - 01:15
EN: Your stop is below the bottom of the bull breakout,
ZH: 你的止损放在多头突破的起点下方
01:17 - 01:22
EN: and let’s say you have a limit order to take half off
ZH: 假设你在前期高点挂了限价卖单，止盈一半的仓位
01:20 - 01:22
EN: if the market gets back to the high.
ZH: 假设你在前期高点挂了限价卖单，止盈一半的仓位
01:25 - 01:28
EN: Let’s say the market is racing up, as it did,
ZH: 假设市场就像这样快速上涨，
01:28 - 01:32
EN: and it hits your limit order, but did not go above your limit order.
ZH: 刚好碰到你的限价卖单，但是没有超过
01:32 - 01:38
EN: Usually the market has to go at least a little bit
ZH: 通常价格要超过1个tick才能确保你的卖单可以成交
01:35 - 01:42
EN: above your limit order before it gets filled, but the instant
ZH: 通常价格要超过1个tick才能确保你的卖单可以成交 如果只是刚好碰到这个价格，是不会成交的
01:38 - 01:42
EN: that it hits your limit order, you’re usually not filled.
ZH: 如果只是刚好碰到这个价格，是不会成交的
01:45 - 01:46
EN: Think about that.
ZH: 仔细想一下
01:46 - 01:50
EN: The market usually has to go at least 1 tick above or 1 pip
ZH: 价格必须超过限价卖单1个tick或者1个pip，
01:49 - 01:54
EN: above the limit order before you get filled, before you can sell for a profit.
ZH: 价格必须超过限价卖单1个tick或者1个pip， 才能确保卖单成交，你才能够顺利卖出止盈
01:59 - 02:02
EN: Yet what do you do? The market just hit your limit order, you’re not filled.
ZH: 你会怎么做呢？ 如果价格刚好碰到你的限价卖单，但没有成交
Slide 003
Time: 02:00
Bilingual Transcript
02:02 - 02:06
EN: You’re going to hold for a few more seconds at least,
ZH: 你至少会再持有几秒钟
02:06 - 02:09
EN: to see if you get that 1 additional tick or pip that goes
ZH: 看看是否能再多涨1个tick或pip
02:09 - 02:11
EN: above your limit order so that your order will be filled
ZH: 这样你的订单就可以成交了
02:12 - 02:15
EN: - yet your stop is still all the way down here, or maybe here.
ZH: 然而，你的止损还在这里，或者这里
02:16 - 02:22
EN: So you’re risking far more than 10 ticks
ZH: 所以你冒着远大于10个ticks的风险， 去赚那最后1个tick
02:19 - 02:22
EN: or 10 pips to make that final 1 tick or pip.
ZH: 所以你冒着远大于10个ticks的风险， 去赚那最后1个tick
02:24 - 02:32
EN: You can only hold onto your trade if you believe
ZH: 只有你确信90%市场会再上涨1个tick的时候， 才可以继续持有
02:27 - 02:32
EN: that the probability of making that 1 tick or pip is at least 90%.
ZH: 只有你确信90%市场会再上涨1个tick的时候， 才可以继续持有
02:32 - 02:38
EN: Otherwise, you cannot risk down to here or down to here to make 1 tick or 1 pip.
ZH: 否则，你就不能冒着价格跌回到这里或这里的风险， 去赚那最后1个tick
02:42 - 02:47
EN: You need that 90% certainty to have a positive Trader’s Equation,
ZH: 胜率需要90%，数学期望才能大于0
02:47 - 02:51
EN: and that means that on almost any trade where you have a limit order
ZH: 也就是说，在每一笔你挂了限价止盈单的交易中，
02:51 - 02:58
EN: to take profits, at least briefly, you are 90% certain
ZH: 至少有一瞬间，你有90%的把握，市场会达到止盈目标位
02:55 - 02:58
EN: about the probability of making a profit.
ZH: 至少有一瞬间，你有90%的把握，市场会达到止盈目标位
02:59 - 03:03
EN: Whenever the probability is very high, the risk/reward has to be terrible.
ZH: 每当概率很高的时候，盈亏比就会变得很差
03:03 - 03:07
EN: There has to be an institution willing to do the opposite of what you’re doing.
ZH: 因为必须要有机构愿意做你的对手盘
03:07 - 03:17
EN: If your reward is only 1 tick or 1 pip and your risk is 10 ticks,
ZH: 如果你的利润只有1个tick，而风险是10个ticks或更高， 这显然是一个糟糕的盈亏比
03:12 - 03:17
EN: 10 pips or more, obviously that’s a horrible risk/reward ratio.
ZH: 如果你的利润只有1个tick，而风险是10个ticks或更高， 这显然是一个糟糕的盈亏比
03:18 - 03:24
EN: However, a horrible risk/reward ratio goes hand-in-hand
ZH: 然而，糟糕的盈亏比往往伴随着很高的胜率
03:22 - 03:24
EN: with a very high probability of success.
ZH: 然而，糟糕的盈亏比往往伴随着很高的胜率
03:24 - 03:27
EN: Usually when you have a very small profit target,
ZH: 通常，当你的利润目标非常小的时候
03:27 - 03:30
EN: you have a very high probability of success.
ZH: 你会有非常高的成功率
03:30 - 03:33
EN: The opposite of that is also true.
ZH: 反之亦然
03:33 - 03:36
EN: If you have a very tight stop, you have very low risk,
ZH: 如果你的止损非常窄，你的风险非常低
03:36 - 03:40
EN: you’re always having a very low probability of making a profit.
ZH: 那么你赚钱的概率也很低
03:40 - 03:43
EN: So tight stops usually lose.
ZH: 所以窄止损大部分都会被打到
03:43 - 03:47
EN: Small rewards usually win, but your risk is big.
ZH: 小利润通常可以赚到，但是风险很大
03:50 - 03:52
EN: Let’s go back to this bull.
ZH: 回到这个做多的案例
03:52 - 03:55
EN: It just hit his limit order, and it’s not yet filled.
ZH: 价格刚好碰到了限价卖单，但还没有成交
03:56 - 03:59
EN: It needs to go 1 tick or 1 pip higher for him to get filled,
ZH: 只需要再多涨1个tick，订单就可以成交了
03:59 - 04:02
EN: yet his stop is here or here.
ZH: 然而止损在这里或这里
04:04 - 04:09
EN: The reward at this point is only 1 tick, or 1 pip if it’s a Forex trade,
ZH: 此时的利润只有1个tick，如果是外汇，就是1个pip
04:09 - 04:15
EN: yet the risk might be 10 ticks, might be 20 or 30 ticks or 20 or 30 pips.
ZH: 但风险可能是10 ticks，甚至是20或30 ticks
04:15 - 04:17
EN: You’re a rational trader.
ZH: 你是一个理性的交易者
04:17 - 04:24
EN: A rational person can only do that if he’s very confident
ZH: 一个理性的人只有在非常肯定目标会达到的时候才会这么做
04:21 - 04:24
EN: that he’ll get his profit before his stop is hit,
ZH: 一个理性的人只有在非常肯定目标会达到的时候才会这么做
04:24 - 04:28
EN: and that means that you have to be at least 90% certain
ZH: 这意味着你必须至少有90%的把握，
04:28 - 04:31
EN: that you’re going to make your reward before your stop is hit.
ZH: 确定会先让你止盈，而不是打掉止损
04:31 - 04:34
EN: And that means that on almost every trade,
ZH: 也就是说，几乎在每一笔交易中，
04:34 - 04:38
EN: at least briefly, you’re 90% certain of something.
ZH: 至少有一瞬间，你对某件事有90%的把握
04:39 - 04:42
EN: When the market gets to your limit order and does not yet fill it
ZH: 如果价格刚好碰到了你的限价订单，但还没有成交，
04:42 - 04:46
EN: and you continue to hold your position, yet your stop is far away relative
ZH: 而你选择继续持有，但此时止损相对止盈而已，已经很远了
04:46 - 04:52
EN: to your reward, you have to be 90% certain
ZH: 说明你至少有90%的把握，市场可以达到止盈目标
04:49 - 04:52
EN: that you’ll get your reward before your stop is hit.
ZH: 说明你至少有90%的把握，市场可以达到止盈目标
Slide 004
Time: 04:54
Bilingual Transcript
04:58 - 05:01
EN: Let’s say that your risk is greater than your reward.
ZH: 假设你的风险大于利润
05:01 - 05:05
EN: Let’s say you’re using a wide stop and you’re scalping.
ZH: 假设你设置了一个较宽的止损，并且你在做剥头皮交易
05:06 - 05:13
EN: Most traders cannot do that because they have to win 70% of the time
ZH: 大多数交易者无法做到这一点， 因为70%的胜率才刚刚好可以打平
05:11 - 05:18
EN: just to break even, and therefore most traders
ZH: 大多数交易者无法做到这一点， 因为70%的胜率才刚刚好可以打平 所以绝大部分的交易者不可能日复一日、 年复一年地做剥头皮交易
05:14 - 05:18
EN: cannot profitably scalp day after day, year after year.
ZH: 所以绝大部分的交易者不可能日复一日、 年复一年地做剥头皮交易
05:19 - 05:23
EN: As a result, most traders should look for swing trades.
ZH: 因此，大多数交易者应该做波段交易
05:23 - 05:27
EN: A swing trade – a reward at least twice as big as your risk.
ZH: 波段交易——利润至少是风险的两倍
05:27 - 05:32
EN: That is the single best way for traders to become consistently profitable.
ZH: 这是稳定盈利的唯一最佳方式
05:32 - 05:36
EN: Some traders can comfortably scalp for their entire careers,
ZH: 有些人可以在一辈子轻松地做剥头皮交易
05:36 - 05:39
EN: but that is a very small number.
ZH: 但这种人非常少
05:39 - 05:42
EN: The vast majority of profitable traders cannot scalp profitably,
ZH: 就算是绝大部分稳定盈利的交易者， 也没有办法稳定地通过剥头皮赚钱
05:42 - 05:45
EN: and they cannot do it comfortably.
ZH: 而且无法轻松地做剥头皮交易
05:45 - 05:48
EN: A lot of very experienced traders can scalp, but they hate it.
ZH: 许多非常有经验的交易员有能力做剥头皮交易
05:48 - 05:49
EN: They’re stressed out.
ZH: 但他们觉得压力太大了
05:49 - 05:51
EN: It’s not fun, and they don’t do it.
ZH: 这不好玩，所以他们不这么做
05:51 - 05:52
EN: They would rather swing trade.
ZH: 他们宁愿做波段交易
05:56 - 05:57
EN: These are all reasonable scalps.
ZH: 这些都是合理的剥头皮交易
05:57 - 06:00
EN: Selling below here for a scalp, buying above here for a scalp.
ZH: 在这里下方做空，在这里上方做多，赚快钱
06:00 - 06:04
EN: These are all – selling, buying, buying, buying, buying
ZH: 这些都是——做空，做多，做多，做多，做多，
06:04 - 06:10
EN: - on a chart with about 70 or 80 bars, there are eight or nine obvious scalps.
ZH: 在一个大约有70
80根K线的K线图上， 有89个明显的剥头皮交易机会
06:10 - 06:13
EN: There are actually many more if you include limit order scalps,
ZH: 如果包括用限价单入场的剥头皮交易，实际上还会有更多
06:13 - 06:16
EN: but most traders cannot take all of those trades,
ZH: 但大多数交易者不可能抓到所有的这些交易机会
06:16 - 06:20
EN: and they certainly cannot be happy trading taking all of those trades.
ZH: 就算可以，他们也不会感到轻松、快乐
06:21 - 06:23
EN: If you look at it, it looks like a good day.
ZH: 仔细看的话，这一天的行情还不错
06:23 - 06:26
EN: You sell, you buy, you sell, you sell again, you buy,
ZH: 做空，做多，做空，做空，做多
06:26 - 06:30
EN: and you end up with a lot of profitable trades.
ZH: 最终会有很多盈利的交易（蓝色框框）
06:33 - 06:37
EN: However, a lot of those traders, especially if they’re beginners,
ZH: 然而，很多交易者，尤其是新手，
06:37 - 06:41
EN: if they took this sell, they probably would’ve taken that buy and this buy,
ZH: 如果他会在这里做空的话， 他很可能也会在这里和这里做多
06:41 - 06:44
EN: and they would’ve sold here, and they would’ve bought here,
ZH: 也会在这里做空，也会在这里做多
06:44 - 06:47
EN: and all of these gold boxes were losers.
ZH: 所有这些金色的框框都是亏损的交易
06:47 - 06:49
EN: And that’s the problem with scalping.
ZH: 这就是剥头皮交易的问题
06:49 - 06:52
EN: It’s easy to look at a chart and find all the winners.
ZH: 看着K线图复盘，全都是赚钱的
06:52 - 06:57
EN: If you’re trading it real time, you would have taken
ZH: 但是在实盘交易中，你也会做很多亏损的交易
06:55 - 07:01
EN: a lot of these losers as well, and they would’ve more
ZH: 但是在实盘交易中，你也会做很多亏损的交易 它们会把你的盈利抹平，甚至变成倒亏
06:59 - 07:01
EN: than wiped out all of your wins.
ZH: 它们会把你的盈利抹平，甚至变成倒亏
07:01 - 07:08
EN: Remember, if you’re scalping, you have to be 70% profitable
ZH: 记住，如果你想做剥头皮交易， 你必须有至少70%的盈利率，才能以此为生
07:05 - 07:08
EN: or better to make a living doing that.
ZH: 记住，如果你想做剥头皮交易， 你必须有至少70%的盈利率，才能以此为生
07:08 - 07:10
EN: Again, there are some traders who do that.
ZH: 有些人可以做到
07:10 - 07:13
EN: I know a lot of traders who win 90% of the time.
ZH: 我认识很多交易员，他们有90%的胜率
07:13 - 07:15
EN: They’re very profitable scalpers.
ZH: 他们是赚了很多钱的剥头皮交易员
07:16 - 07:18
EN: That’s unrealistic for most traders.
ZH: 但对大多数交易者来说，这是不现实的
07:18 - 07:21
EN: Most traders have to swing trade to be consistently profitable.
ZH: 大多数交易者只有做波段交易，才有可能稳定盈利
07:24 - 07:30
EN: These blue boxes are the winners, and a beginner who took those scalps
ZH: 这些蓝色框框都是盈利的交易， 而一个剥头皮的新手也会做很多金色框框中的交易
07:28 - 07:30
EN: probably took a lot of the gold boxes.
ZH: 这些蓝色框框都是盈利的交易， 而一个剥头皮的新手也会做很多金色框框中的交易
07:30 - 07:37
EN: He would’ve had 8 winners, 8 blue boxes, and he would’ve had 12 losers,
ZH: 他最终可能有8个蓝色框框，即8笔盈利； 以及12个金色框框，即12笔亏损
07:34 - 07:37
EN: the 12 gold boxes, and he would’ve ended up
ZH: 他最终可能有8个蓝色框框，即8笔盈利； 以及12个金色框框，即12笔亏损
07:37 - 07:39
EN: losing money by the end of the session.
ZH: 最终收盘结算是亏钱的
Slide 005
Time: 07:42
Bilingual Transcript
07:46 - 07:52
EN: An experienced trader can make money scalping
ZH: 有经验的交易员可以在强势突破期间通过剥头皮交易赚钱， 其中很多人会逢低加仓
07:49 - 07:52
EN: during a strong breakout, and many will scale in lower.
ZH: 有经验的交易员可以在强势突破期间通过剥头皮交易赚钱， 其中很多人会逢低加仓
07:52 - 07:54
EN: (You can see the video on scaling in.)
ZH: 具体在关于加仓的视频中再讲解 （注：第35单元）
07:54 - 07:59
EN: For example, we have a strong breakout here, a Buy Climax.
ZH: 例如，这是一个强势突破，也是抢购高潮
07:59 - 08:02
EN: Traders will buy the close of a strong bull trend bar.
ZH: 交易者会在大阳线的收盘买入
08:02 - 08:06
EN: They can buy any of these closes, but let’s say a bull bought this close.
ZH: 他们可以在任何一根K线的收盘买入， 但假设一个多头在它的收盘买入了
08:07 - 08:11
EN: His initial stop is below the bottom of the major Higher Low,
ZH: 他的初始止损放在最近一个重要的低点下方
08:11 - 08:14
EN: the bottom of the Buy Climax, the bottom of the breakout.
ZH: 也就是抢购高潮和突破的起点下方
08:14 - 08:18
EN: Remember, every trend bar, every series of trend bars,
ZH: 每根趋势K线，每一系列趋势K线， 都是突破，也是高潮
08:16 - 08:18
EN: is a breakout and a climax.
ZH: 每根趋势K线，每一系列趋势K线， 都是突破，也是高潮
08:18 - 08:20
EN: This is the initial risk.
ZH: 这是初始风险
08:20 - 08:25
EN: The trader was willing to risk all the way down
ZH: 多头把止损放在起涨点下方， 愿意承担这么多的风险
08:22 - 08:25
EN: to below the bottom of the bull breakout.
ZH: 多头把止损放在起涨点下方， 愿意承担这么多的风险
08:27 - 08:29
EN: A lot of traders will buy more lower.
ZH: 很多人会在逢低加仓，买入更多
08:29 - 08:34
EN: If they do, they want their second entry to be at least a scalp below the first.
ZH: 如果他们这样做，他们加仓的位置， 至少要比初始入场点低剥头皮的距离
08:34 - 08:40
EN: That’s because many will get out when the market gets back to their first entry.
ZH: 是因为当市场回到他们初始入场点的时候， 它们的初始仓位可以打平离场
08:38 - 08:40
EN: They get out breakeven on their first entry,
ZH: 是因为当市场回到他们初始入场点的时候， 它们的初始仓位可以打平离场
08:40 - 08:43
EN: and then with a scalp profit on their second entry.
ZH: 而加仓的部分可以赚到一笔剥头皮的利润
08:43 - 08:50
EN: Other traders will continue to hold for a reward equal
ZH: 一些交易者也会继续持有， 直到利润至少等于一倍的实际风险
08:47 - 08:50
EN: to at least one times their actual risk.
ZH: 一些交易者也会继续持有， 直到利润至少等于一倍的实际风险
08:52 - 08:57
EN: If a trader takes this buy, buys more here, and the market starts to turn up,
ZH: 如果一个交易者在这里买入，在这里加仓， 而市场开始上涨，
08:57 - 09:02
EN: he might raise his stop from here to here, and his actual risk
ZH: 他会把止损从下面移动到这里
09:02 - 09:07
EN: then would be from his entry price to below the low of this bar.
ZH: 而他的实际风险就是从入场价格到这根K线的低点下方
09:07 - 09:10
EN: His actual risk might be less than that, depending on when he entered.
ZH: 他的实际风险可能比这更小，取决于他具体的入场时间
09:10 - 09:12
EN: If he entered with a limit order here,
ZH: 如果他在这里用限价买单入场
09:12 - 09:14
EN: the market traded down to here and reversed up.
ZH: 市场跌到这里然后反转上涨
09:14 - 09:18
EN: That means his actual risk was to just below the low of that bar.
ZH: 那么他的实际风险就在这根K线的下方
09:18 - 09:20
EN: This is his actual risk.
ZH: 这是他的实际风险
09:22 - 09:27
EN: If he buys here and his actual risk is here, he’s in a bull trend
ZH: 如果他在这里买入，实际风险在这里， 而市场处于上涨趋势
09:27 - 09:33
EN: - he has a 60% chance of making at least a reward equal to his actual risk.
ZH: ——那么他有60%的概率，至少赚到等于实际风险的利润
09:33 - 09:37
EN: Some bulls will buy here, some will add on here.
ZH: 一些多头会在这里买入，一些会在这里加仓
09:37 - 09:39
EN: Some will just continue to hold long,
ZH: 一些会继续持有
09:39 - 09:42
EN: and they’ll get out at one times their actual risk.
ZH: 他们会在一倍实际风险的距离止盈离场
09:42 - 09:46
EN: And because the probability is 60% or higher that a bull buying here
ZH: 因为在这里买入的多头有60%或更高的概率
09:46 - 09:51
EN: will make a reward equal to his Actual Risk, it’s a good Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 可以赚到等于实际风险的利润，所以数学期望是好的
09:51 - 09:52
EN: Buy here.
ZH: 在这里买入
09:52 - 09:55
EN: Whether or not you add on here, if you buy here
ZH: 无论你是否在这里加仓，如果你在这里买入，
09:55 - 09:58
EN: and the market starts to go up, your actual risk was right here.
ZH: 然后市场开始上涨，你的实际风险就在这里
09:58 - 10:04
EN: You have a 60% chance of making at least that reward if you exit at that point.
ZH: 你有60%的概率可以在这个位置止盈
10:09 - 10:13
EN: Even though you’re taking profits at only one times your actual risk,
ZH: 即使你的利润只有一倍实际风险，
10:13 - 10:17
EN: the Trader’s Equation is positive because you’re buying in a strong bull trend.
ZH: 你的数学期望仍然是正的，因为你在强上涨趋势中买入做多
10:17 - 10:23
EN: There’s a 60% chance that you’ll make a reward
ZH: 你有60%的概率可以赚到等于一倍实际风险的利润
10:20 - 10:23
EN: that is equal to your actual risk.
ZH: 你有60%的概率可以赚到等于一倍实际风险的利润
10:23 - 10:27
EN: And with a risk/reward ratio of 1, if the probability is 60%,
ZH: 如果盈亏比是1：1，而胜率是60%
10:27 - 10:29
EN: the Trader’s Equation is positive.
ZH: 数学期望就是正的
10:34 - 10:37
EN: You often hear me talk about the 40 – 60 Rule.
ZH: 你经常会听我讲到40-60法则
Slide 006
Time: 10:35
Bilingual Transcript
No transcript segment aligned to this slide.
Slide 007
Time: 10:39
Bilingual Transcript
10:41 - 10:45
EN: When I talk about the 40 – 60 Rule, I mean that 10% of the bars
ZH: 当我讲到40-60法则的时候， 我指的是任何K线图上，
10:45 - 10:48
EN: on any chart are in a strong breakout, and there’s more
ZH: 只有10%的K线处于强势突破状态，
10:48 - 10:52
EN: than a 60% probability that the trend will continue.
ZH: 有超过60%的概率趋势会继续
10:52 - 10:55
EN: On the other 90% of the bars on the chart,
ZH: 至于其他90%的K线
10:55 - 10:58
EN: the probability is really not all that clear,
ZH: 概率其实并不那么明确，
10:58 - 11:01
EN: and the setups are not as strong as you want them to be.
ZH: 机会往往也没有你想象中的那么好
11:01 - 11:05
EN: For any trade during 90% of the bars on any chart,
ZH: 如果在那90%的K线期间交易，
11:06 - 11:15
EN: there’s a 40% to 60% probability of the market moving X units
ZH: 先涨X个单位，还是先跌X个单位， 概率都只是在40~60%之间
11:11 - 11:15
EN: in one direction before it moves X units in the other direction.
ZH: 先涨X个单位，还是先跌X个单位， 概率都只是在40~60%之间
11:18 - 11:21
EN: 90% of the time on any chart,
ZH: 任何K线图在90%的时间内，
11:21 - 11:24
EN: the market’s in either a channel or a Trading Range.
ZH: 都处于通道或者震荡区间
11:24 - 11:28
EN: Only 10% of the bars are in a strong breakout on any chart.
ZH: 只有10%的K线处于强势突破状态
11:31 - 11:34
EN: When the market’s breaking out strongly,
ZH: 当市场强势突破时，
11:34 - 11:36
EN: traders should only go in the direction of the trade.
ZH: 交易者只能顺着突破的方向交易
11:36 - 11:40
EN: Strong breakout, only buy, only buy, only buy, only buy.
ZH: 强势突破，只能做多，做多，做多，做多，
11:44 - 11:47
EN: If the market’s not obviously in a strong breakout,
ZH: 如果市场明显不在强势突破中
11:47 - 11:49
EN: then it’s either in a channel or a Trading Range,
ZH: 那么它要么处于通道，要么处于震荡区间
11:49 - 11:52
EN: and that’s true for 90% of the bars on every chart.
ZH: 每张K线图90%的K线都是这样
11:53 - 12:00
EN: When that’s true, the probability for the bulls
ZH: 这个时候，多空双方的概率都只是在40%到60%之间
11:56 - 12:00
EN: and the bears is always going to be between 40% and 60%.
ZH: 这个时候，多空双方的概率都只是在40%到60%之间
12:00 - 12:08
EN: Buying or selling, the probability is never worse than 40%.
ZH: 不管做多还是做空，胜率不会低于40%，也不会高于60%
12:04 - 12:08
EN: Buying or selling, the probability is never better than 60%
ZH: 不管做多还是做空，胜率不会低于40%，也不会高于60%
12:08 - 12:11
EN: that you’ll make X units before you lose X units.
ZH: 不知道会先赚X个点，还是先亏X个点
12:11 - 12:19
EN: 10 pips, 10 ticks up or down, 25 ticks, 25 pips up or down, 40% to 60% chance.
ZH: 上涨或下跌10个ticks/pips， 上涨或下跌25个ticks/pips，概率都在40-60之间
12:23 - 12:30
EN: One way that you can gain confidence about probabilities is by thinking
ZH: 如果不太理解这一点，可以思考机构在做什么期权
Slide 008
Time: 12:24
Bilingual Transcript
12:27 - 12:30
EN: about what options institutions are doing.
ZH: 如果不太理解这一点，可以思考机构在做什么期权
12:35 - 12:39
EN: There are a lot of institutions that specialize in selling options
ZH: 有很多机构是专门做期权卖方的
12:39 - 12:43
EN: - options on anything, stocks and futures, and they do it profitably.
ZH: ——各个市场，期货和股票的期权，他们都能赚钱
12:43 - 12:52
EN: At any given time, they’re willing to sell a call
ZH: 在任何时间，他们都愿意卖出任意行权价和到期日的看涨或看跌期权，
12:47 - 12:52
EN: or a put on any given strike price, on any given expiration.
ZH: 在任何时间，他们都愿意卖出任意行权价和到期日的看涨或看跌期权，
12:52 - 12:55
EN: They tell you the price at which they’re willing to sell.
ZH: 而且你知道他们愿意卖出的权利金是多少
13:00 - 13:05
EN: An At The Money option means an option that is very close
ZH: 平价期权（ATM，at the money） 是指非常接近股票目前价格的期权
13:03 - 13:05
EN: to the current price of the stock.
ZH: 平价期权（ATM，at the money） 是指非常接近股票目前价格的期权
13:05 - 13:12
EN: So for example, if a stock is $100, the At The Money put
ZH: 比如说，如果股价现在是$100， 那么平价的看涨和看跌期权
13:11 - 13:15
EN: and the At The Money call would be a $100 put or $100 call,
ZH: 比如说，如果股价现在是$100， 那么平价的看涨和看跌期权 就是行权价为$100的看涨和看跌期权
13:15 - 13:17
EN: and it would be any expiration month
ZH: 到期日可以是任何时间
13:17 - 13:19
EN: - the current month, next month, the month afterwards.
ZH: 这个月，下个月，下下个月，都行 （注：流动性好的品种有每周、甚至每天结算的期权）
13:19 - 13:21
EN: All of those are At The Money.
ZH: 所有这些都是平价期权
13:22 - 13:25
EN: If the price of the stock is $100 and ten cents
ZH: 如果股票价格是$100.1
13:25 - 13:31
EN: and the next higher option price is $101, if the price of the stock
ZH: 而下一个更高的期权行权价是$101
13:31 - 13:38
EN: is $100 and 10 cents, and the next higher strike price for the options is $101,
ZH: （重复）如果股票价格$100.1， 而下一个更高的期权行权价是$101
13:38 - 13:44
EN: $100 and 10 cents is closer to $100 than it is to $101.
ZH: 100.1距离100更近，离101更远
13:44 - 13:51
EN: And therefore, the $100 strike price is
ZH: 所以行权价是$100的期权是平价看涨/看跌期权
13:47 - 13:51
EN: the At The Money put and the At The Money call.
ZH: 所以行权价是$100的期权是平价看涨/看跌期权
Slide 009
Time: 14:00
Bilingual Transcript
14:02 - 14:05
EN: If you look at option prices, what you’ll discover is
ZH: 如果你查看期权链中的价格，你会发现
14:05 - 14:10
EN: the At The Money put price is always very close to the At The Money call price.
ZH: 平价看跌期权和平价看涨期权的价格总是非常接近
14:10 - 14:17
EN: In a strong bear trend, the At The Money price at any instant
ZH: 在强下降趋势中，平价看跌期权的价格总是会更高一些
14:14 - 14:17
EN: is probably going to be a little bit higher for the puts
ZH: 在强下降趋势中，平价看跌期权的价格总是会更高一些
14:17 - 14:20
EN: than for the calls, but they’re both very close to one another.
ZH: 但总的来说两者非常接近
14:20 - 14:25
EN: So 90% of the time, the price of an At The Money put
ZH: 所以90%的时间里，平价看跌期权的价格
14:25 - 14:29
EN: and the At The Money call are very, very similar, especially if the price
ZH: 和平价看涨期权的价格非常接近，
14:29 - 14:33
EN: of the stock is exactly at the strike price of the option.
ZH: 尤其是股价正好处于行权价的时候
14:33 - 14:38
EN: So for example, if you’re looking at a stock where the price is exactly $50,
ZH: 例如，如果你看到一只股票的价格正好是$50
14:38 - 14:46
EN: the $50 put price and the $50 call price are probably very close to one another,
ZH: 那么行权价为$50的看涨、看跌期权， 只要他们的到期日一样，不管是这个月， 还是下个月，还是下下个月
14:44 - 14:52
EN: and it does not matter if you’re looking at this month
ZH: 只要他们的到期日一样，不管是这个月， 还是下个月，还是下下个月 同一到期日的平价看涨、看跌期权，他们的价格会非常接近
14:47 - 14:52
EN: or next month or the month after.
ZH: 同一到期日的平价看涨、看跌期权，他们的价格会非常接近
14:49 - 14:52
EN: The put and call prices will be about the same.
ZH: 同一到期日的平价看涨、看跌期权，他们的价格会非常接近
14:57 - 14:59
EN: And what does that tell you?
ZH: 这说明什么？
14:59 - 15:03
EN: It tells you that these highly profitable institutions
ZH: 这说明，这些一直赚钱的期权卖方，
15:02 - 15:10
EN: who are selling these puts and calls think that the probability
ZH: 这说明，这些一直赚钱的期权卖方， 认为股价上涨和下跌的概率是差不多的 （注：权利金和Delta的本质就是概率，越贵，说明概率越大）
15:06 - 15:10
EN: of a rally is about the same as the probability of a selloff.
ZH: 认为股价上涨和下跌的概率是差不多的 （注：权利金和Delta的本质就是概率，越贵，说明概率越大）
15:10 - 15:16
EN: A rally how big? 5 ticks, 10 ticks, 5 points, 10 points, it doesn’t matter.
ZH: 会有多大的涨幅？5 ticks, 10 ticks, 还是5个点，10个点，不管是多少
15:16 - 15:21
EN: If you’re looking at a rally that is X points up and a selloff
ZH: 不管你认为会上涨X个点，还是会下跌X个点
15:21 - 15:25
EN: that is X points down, because the price of the put,
ZH: 因为看跌期权——押注市场下跌的期权
15:25 - 15:29
EN: a bet on the market going down, is about the same as the price of the call,
ZH: 和看涨期权——押注市场上涨的期权
15:29 - 15:37
EN: that tells you that the probability for the market rallying is
ZH: 两者的权利金一样贵， 这说明市场上涨和下跌的概率是一样的
15:33 - 15:37
EN: about the same as the probability of the market going down.
ZH: 两者的权利金一样贵， 这说明市场上涨和下跌的概率是一样的
15:37 - 15:40
EN: Probabilities are always in a very tight band.
ZH: 概率总是在一个非常狭窄的范围内
15:50 - 15:58
EN: I approximate this by saying that the probability is
ZH: 所以我概括地说，K线图上90%的K线， 概率都在40%到60%之间
15:54 - 15:58
EN: between 40% and 60% for 90% of the bars on the chart.
ZH: 所以我概括地说，K线图上90%的K线， 概率都在40%到60%之间
15:58 - 16:03
EN: Sometimes when the market is strongly bullish, the probability is
ZH: 有时多头非常强势，市场大概率会继续上涨
16:02 - 16:08
EN: that it’s going to go higher and the cost of the calls
ZH: 有时多头非常强势，市场大概率会继续上涨 此时看涨期权的价格会略高于看跌期权
16:05 - 16:08
EN: would be priced a little bit higher than the cost of the puts.
ZH: 此时看涨期权的价格会略高于看跌期权
16:08 - 16:18
EN: But for 90% of the bars on the chart, you should assume that the probability
ZH: 但对于K线图上90%的K线， 你应该假设市场上涨的概率在40%到60%之间
16:13 - 16:18
EN: of the market going up is somewhere between 40% and 60%,
ZH: 但对于K线图上90%的K线， 你应该假设市场上涨的概率在40%到60%之间
16:18 - 16:22
EN: and the probability of the market going down is between 40% and 60%.
ZH: 下跌的概率也在40%到60%之间
Slide 010
Time: 16:25
Bilingual Transcript
16:30 - 16:35
EN: Strong successful breakouts
ZH: 强势、成功、有跟随的突破，是罕见的，而且转瞬即逝
16:31 - 16:35
EN: with decent follow-through are rare, and they’re brief.
ZH: 强势、成功、有跟随的突破，是罕见的，而且转瞬即逝
16:35 - 16:37
EN: They don’t last all that long.
ZH: 它们不会持续太久
16:37 - 16:45
EN: And during those times, the probability that the market
ZH: 在那一刻，市场继续顺着那个方向运行的概率很高——超过60%
16:40 - 16:45
EN: will continue in your direction at least a little bit is high – more than 60%.
ZH: 在那一刻，市场继续顺着那个方向运行的概率很高——超过60%
16:48 - 16:52
EN: 90% of the bars on the chart are not in strong breakouts,
ZH: 但是K线图上90%的K线不处于强势突破，
16:52 - 16:56
EN: and during 90% of the time, inside these blue boxes,
ZH: 在90%的时间内，在这些蓝色方框内
16:56 - 17:01
EN: the probability is going to be 40% to 60% for the bulls and bears.
ZH: 多空双方的概率都在40%到60%之间
17:01 - 17:03
EN: Usually between 40% and 50%.
ZH: 通常在40%到50%之间
17:03 - 17:06
EN: You never have to know the probability exactly,
ZH: 你没必要精确地知道概率是多少
17:06 - 17:08
EN: and that’s because of the Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 大概知道数学期望足够好就可以了
17:08 - 17:12
EN: Most traders should be swing trading, and that means they should be going
ZH: 大多数交易者应该做波段交易，
17:12 - 17:15
EN: for a reward at least twice as big as their risk,
ZH: 也就是利润至少是风险的两倍
17:15 - 17:20
EN: and they only need a 40% probability for that to be a profitable trade.
ZH: 这样，就只需要40%的胜率，就是一个可以盈利的策略
17:20 - 17:25
EN: And since 90% of the bars on the chart, whether you buy or sell,
ZH: 既然K线图上90%的K线，无论你做多还是做空，
17:25 - 17:30
EN: you have at least a 40% chance of making a profit, if you go for a reward
ZH: 至少都有40%的胜率可以赚钱，
17:30 - 17:36
EN: that is at least twice as big as your risk, you have a profitable strategy.
ZH: 那么追求两倍风险的利润， 就给了你一个可以盈利的策略
17:36 - 17:42
EN: Here in the green boxes, you have better
ZH: 在这些绿色框框里面，超过60%的概率， 市场会顺着趋势继续前进
17:38 - 17:42
EN: than a 60% probability the market will continue in that direction.
ZH: 在这些绿色框框里面，超过60%的概率， 市场会顺着趋势继续前进
17:42 - 17:45
EN: During the blue boxes, your probability is 60% or less,
ZH: 在蓝色框框中，概率不超过60%，
17:45 - 17:48
EN: but it’s not less than 40%.
ZH: 但也不会低于40%
17:49 - 17:52
EN: The green boxes, only trade in the direction of the trend.
ZH: 在绿色框框中，只按照趋势的方向操作
17:52 - 17:55
EN: The blue boxes, you can make money buying or selling
ZH: 在蓝色框框中，可以做多，也可以做空，
17:55 - 17:59
EN: as long as you go for a reward two times your risk.
ZH: 只要利润大于风险的两倍，就是盈利的策略
17:59 - 18:07
EN: That risk/reward ratio results in a positive Trader’s Equation
ZH: 即使胜率只有40%，但是盈亏比足够好， 最终的数学期望就大于0
18:03 - 18:07
EN: even if the probability of success is only 40%.
ZH: 即使胜率只有40%，但是盈亏比足够好， 最终的数学期望就大于0
18:09 - 18:11
EN: That’s very important to know.
ZH: 理解这一点非常重要
Slide 011
Time: 18:10
Bilingual Transcript
18:11 - 18:14
EN: That tells you that 90% of the time,
ZH: 这告诉你在90%的时间内，
18:14 - 18:16
EN: you don’t have to worry about the probability.
ZH: 你不需要担心概率
18:16 - 18:20
EN: Just assume that it’s at least 40% for buying or selling,
ZH: 只需要假设做多或做空的概率至少是40%
18:20 - 18:25
EN: and as long as you go for a reward at least twice your risk, the math is good.
ZH: 然后争取拿到两倍风险的利润，数学期望就足够好
18:25 - 18:27
EN: You have a positive Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 数学期望是正的
18:31 - 18:36
EN: Buying or selling anywhere in here, or in here, or in here,
ZH: 在任何地方做多或做空，这里，这里，或者这里，
18:36 - 18:43
EN: you have at least a 40% chance of making a profit if you go
ZH: 40%的概率可以转到两倍于风险的利润
18:40 - 18:43
EN: for a reward twice as big as your risk.
ZH: 40%的概率可以转到两倍于风险的利润
18:43 - 18:48
EN: You determine what your risk is by placing your stop, and as long as you
ZH: 通过设置（合理的）止损，就知道自己的风险是多少
18:48 - 18:51
EN: go for a reward that’s at least twice as great, you’re going to have
ZH: 然后把止盈目标设置为止损的两倍
18:51 - 18:55
EN: a positive Trader’s Equation – even if you win only 40% of the time.
ZH: 就算胜率只有40%，数学期望也是正的
19:00 - 19:04
EN: Therefore, 90% of the time when the market is not breaking out strongly,
ZH: 因此，在90%的时间里，当市场没有强势突破的时候
19:05 - 19:08
EN: always go for a reward at least two times your risk.
ZH: 追求两倍于风险的利润总没错
19:08 - 19:11
EN: That compensates for whatever low probability you have,
ZH: 这可以弥补胜率的不足
19:11 - 19:16
EN: and it results in a positive Trader’s Equation, and it’s a profitable strategy.
ZH: 可以让数学期望大于0，是一个能够盈利的交易策略
19:16 - 19:23
EN: Your probability is never going to be less than 40%,
ZH: 在K线图90%的K线上不管做多还是做空， 胜率永远不会低于40%
19:19 - 19:23
EN: buying or selling, during 90% of the bars on the chart.
ZH: 在K线图90%的K线上不管做多还是做空， 胜率永远不会低于40%
19:23 - 19:25
EN: When you’re in a strong bull breakout, you should not sell.
ZH: 如果市场处于强势的多头突破，就不要做空
19:25 - 19:27
EN: You should only buy.
ZH: 只考虑买入
19:27 - 19:30
EN: At the times when you’re not in a strong breakout up or down,
ZH: 如果市场不处于强势的上涨或下降趋势
19:30 - 19:38
EN: you can buy or sell and make money, because you know the probability
ZH: 做多做空都可以赚钱，因为你知道不管做多还是做空， 胜率都至少有40%
19:35 - 19:38
EN: of buying or selling is going to be at least 40%.
ZH: 做多做空都可以赚钱，因为你知道不管做多还是做空， 胜率都至少有40%
Slide 012
Time: 19:40
Bilingual Transcript
19:45 - 19:51
EN: Remember, you can buy or sell, and that means both the bulls
ZH: 既然做多做空都可以，这代表多空双方的数学期望都有可能是正的
19:49 - 19:51
EN: and the bears can have a positive Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 既然做多做空都可以，这代表多空双方的数学期望都有可能是正的
19:53 - 19:57
EN: The probability of most swing trades is only between 40% and 50%,
ZH: 大多数波段交易的概率只有40%到50%之间
19:57 - 20:02
EN: and that’s true of a trader swing trading in the opposite direction as well.
ZH: 这同样适用于反方向波段交易的人
20:02 - 20:06
EN: If you’re buying, 40% chance you make money for a swing trade,
ZH: 如果你做多，波段交易有40%的概率赚钱
20:06 - 20:09
EN: and the institution taking the opposite side of your trade,
ZH: 而和你做对手盘的机构，
20:09 - 20:18
EN: if it is swing trading as well, it only has a 40% to 50% chance
ZH: 如果他也在做波段交易， 它也只有40~50%的概率赚钱
20:14 - 20:18
EN: of making a profit or making a reward two times the risk.
ZH: 如果他也在做波段交易， 它也只有40~50%的概率赚钱
20:18 - 20:21
EN: Both of you have a good Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 你们的数学期望都是正的
20:24 - 20:30
EN: Both the bulls and bears can lose more than 50% of the time
ZH: 多空双方都可以在胜率低于50%的情况下稳定盈利，
20:29 - 20:33
EN: and consistently make money, as long as their reward
ZH: 多空双方都可以在胜率低于50%的情况下稳定盈利， 只要他们的利润至少是风险的两倍
20:32 - 20:33
EN: is at least twice their risk.
ZH: 只要他们的利润至少是风险的两倍
20:36 - 20:41
EN: Since you can buy or sell during 90% of the bars on the chart,
ZH: 既然在K线图90%的K线上，你做多做空都可以，
20:41 - 20:43
EN: the key to making money is money management.
ZH: 那么赚钱的关键就是资金管理
20:43 - 20:51
EN: You have to use a reasonable stop, a reasonable risk, and you have to try
ZH: 你必须设置合理的止损、风险， 并且争取赚到至少两倍于风险的利润
20:48 - 20:51
EN: for a reward that is at least twice as big as your risk.
ZH: 并且争取赚到至少两倍于风险的利润
20:55 - 20:59
EN: That good risk/reward ratio overcomes the low probability.
ZH: 盈亏比的优势弥补了胜率的劣势
20:59 - 21:04
EN: Remember, your probability is always at least 40%, but often it is only 40%.
ZH: 记住，你的胜率至少有40%——尽管通常只有40%，
21:05 - 21:09
EN: If you have a reward that is at least twice your risk, if that’s your target
ZH: 如果你的利润至少是风险的两倍
21:09 - 21:14
EN: that overcomes the low probability and keeps the Trader’s Equation positive.
ZH: 就可以弥补胜率的不足，让数学期望大于0
Slide 013
Time: 21:15
Bilingual Transcript
21:21 - 21:22
EN: Here we’re in a bear channel.
ZH: 现在市场处于下降通道
21:22 - 21:28
EN: We have four pushes down – one, two, three, four, so it’s a High 4 buy.
ZH: 有4次向下推动——1，2，3，4， 所以这是高4做多入场点
21:29 - 21:31
EN: You can look at it as consecutive bottoms.
ZH: 你可以把它看作连续的筑底尝试
21:31 - 21:34
EN: So we tried to get a bottom here, but we have a bear breakout,
ZH: 之前尝试在这里筑底，但是又被向下跌破
21:34 - 21:38
EN: and we tried to bottom again, and then a second attempt at a bottom,
ZH: 再次尝试筑底，又一次尝试筑底
21:38 - 21:42
EN: and this is a Micro Double Bottom – down, up, down, and then trying to go up.
ZH: 这是一个小双底——下跌，上涨；下跌，然后尝试上涨
21:43 - 21:51
EN: Chances are the market’s going to have 10 bars,
ZH: 在通道的底部，出现高4买点， 大概率市场会有两段10K的横盘或上涨
21:46 - 21:51
EN: two legs sideways to up after a High 4 buy at the bottom of a channel.
ZH: 在通道的底部，出现高4买点， 大概率市场会有两段10K的横盘或上涨
21:52 - 21:54
EN: We have consecutive complex bottoms.
ZH: 这是连续的复合型底部
21:54 - 21:58
EN: We tried to bottom one, two, tried to reverse up.
ZH: 尝试筑底，1，2，尝试反转上涨
21:58 - 21:59
EN: We got a bear breakout.
ZH: 向下跌破
21:59 - 22:03
EN: Tried to bottom again, one, two.
ZH: 再次尝试筑底，1，2
22:03 - 22:07
EN: Complex bottom, two attempts up, a bear breakout,
ZH: 复合型底部，两次尝试，向下跌破
22:07 - 22:09
EN: complex bottom, two attempts up.
ZH: 复合型底部，两次尝试
22:09 - 22:11
EN: We have a Micro Double Bottom as well.
ZH: 这里也有一个小双底
22:11 - 22:16
EN: Probably going to get at least 10 bars, two legs sideways to up.
ZH: 大概率，至少会有两段10K的横盘或上涨
22:16 - 22:19
EN: TBTL – ten bars, two legs.
ZH: TBTL（两段10K）——10根K线，两段上涨
22:25 - 22:27
EN: We sold off in a Wedge.
ZH: 楔形底
22:27 - 22:32
EN: Three pushes down – one, two, three – and we’re trying to reverse up
ZH: 3次向下推动——1，2，3—— 在之前这个信号K的高点尝试反转上涨
22:32 - 22:39
EN: at the signal bar high over here, and we have a decent bull signal bar here
ZH: 出现了不错的阳线，还有小双底的结构， 之前这根阳线也很不错
22:37 - 22:39
EN: and a Micro Double Bottom with also a good bull bar.
ZH: 出现了不错的阳线，还有小双底的结构， 之前这根阳线也很不错
22:41 - 22:44
EN: We have a Micro Double Bottom with a good buy signal bar here,
ZH: （重复）小双底，这里有一个好的做多信号K线
22:44 - 22:46
EN: and another good bull bar here.
ZH: 这里也是一个好的阳线
22:46 - 22:50
EN: This is a reasonable buy, looking for at least a small second leg up.
ZH: 这是一个合理的买点，预期至少会有小的两段上涨
22:51 - 22:53
EN: It’s also a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 这也是低点抬高的大反转
22:53 - 22:58
EN: Bear trend, strong bull breakout to a Higher Low, and a Wedge bull flag.
ZH: 下降趋势，强势的多头突破，低点抬高，楔形牛旗
22:58 - 23:02
EN: Three pushes down – one, two, and then three.
ZH: 3次向下推动——1，2，然后3
Slide 014
Time: 23:05
Bilingual Transcript
No transcript segment aligned to this slide.
Slide 015
Time: 23:10
Bilingual Transcript
23:13 - 23:15
EN: The bulls got their minimum goal.
ZH: 多头完成了他们的最低目标
23:15 - 23:17
EN: They have a second leg sideways to up.
ZH: 制造了两段横盘到上涨
23:17 - 23:18
EN: Here, it’s mostly sideways.
ZH: 这里主要是横向的
23:19 - 23:21
EN: Yet look what’s happening now.
ZH: 然而，看看现在发生了什么
23:21 - 23:22
EN: We have a potential Triangle.
ZH: 有一个潜在的三角形
23:22 - 23:26
EN: Three reversals down – one, two, and three.
ZH: 3次反转下跌——1，2，3
23:26 - 23:29
EN: The bears have a good signal bar and a decent entry bar.
ZH: 空头有好的信号K线和不错的入场K线
23:32 - 23:36
EN: The bears also look at this as a Double Top Lower High, a Double Top.
ZH: 空头也把它看作高点降低，双顶
23:36 - 23:38
EN: The second high is a little bit lower.
ZH: 第2个高点稍微低一些
23:38 - 23:44
EN: It therefore is a Low 2 sell signal below the low
ZH: 因此，这是低2做空信号K， 空头的突破卖单在它的下方被触发、成交
23:41 - 23:44
EN: of this bear bar, getting filled right here.
ZH: 因此，这是低2做空信号K， 空头的突破卖单在它的下方被触发、成交
23:46 - 23:49
EN: As is always the case when the market starts to go sideways,
ZH: 当市场开始横盘时，总是会出现这样的情况，
23:50 - 23:54
EN: there is a decent buy signal and a decent sell signal.
ZH: 同时存在好的做多、做空信号
23:55 - 23:59
EN: In this particular case, the bulls who bought here probably have to exit.
ZH: 在这个案例中，在这里买入的多头可能需要先离场
23:59 - 24:03
EN: They have a Double Top Lower High and a good sell signal bar,
ZH: 因为出现了高点降低、双底，还有好的做空信号K
24:03 - 24:05
EN: and they have their second leg up.
ZH: 而且第2段上涨已经出现了
24:06 - 24:11
EN: Because the bears have a reasonable sell signal – a Triangle in a bear trend
ZH: 因为空得到了合理的做空信号——下降趋势中的三角形，
24:11 - 24:15
EN: - and a decent sell signal bar, and the bulls got their second leg up,
ZH: 还有不错的做空信号K线， 而多头已经得到了他们的第2段上涨
24:15 - 24:19
EN: the bulls exit, and the bears will sell, looking for a swing down.
ZH: 所以多头离场，空头入场，押注会有下跌的波段
24:20 - 24:22
EN: And the bears got their swing down.
ZH: 空头得到了他们的下跌波段
Slide 016
Time: 24:25
Bilingual Transcript
24:26 - 24:29
EN: Here we have a bull trend, a bear break below the bull trend,
ZH: 上涨趋势，趋势线被跌破
24:29 - 24:32
EN: and we have a Lower High and another Lower High.
ZH: 高点降低，再降低
24:32 - 24:36
EN: The bears have a decent sell setup for a swing down,
ZH: 空头有一个不错的做空机会，押注下跌波段
24:36 - 24:40
EN: a Lower High Major Trend Reversal, even though we’re still in a bull trend.
ZH: 尽管仍然处于上涨趋势中，但这是高点降低的大反转机会
24:41 - 24:45
EN: In addition, they have a small Double Top, and this Double Top is a Lower High.
ZH: 此外，空头有一个小的双顶，而这个双顶处于更低的高点
24:45 - 24:48
EN: So it’s a Double Top Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 所以是高点降低的双顶大反转结构
24:48 - 24:51
EN: That’s a common pattern in a Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 这是窄震荡区间中的常见模式
24:51 - 24:54
EN: When you have a Tight Trading Range and there’s a Double Top and a Lower High
ZH: 如果市场处于窄震荡区间，并且高点降低，出现双顶
24:54 - 24:57
EN: - sometimes it’s a Higher High, but usually it’s a Lower High
ZH: ——有时是高点抬高，但通常是高点降低
24:57 - 24:58
EN: - it’s a reasonable short.
ZH: 这是一个合理的做空机会
24:58 - 25:01
EN: 40% chance you’ll get a swing down.
ZH: 40%的概率可以赚到下跌波段
25:01 - 25:06
EN: For the bulls, this is a bull trend, a bear breakout, but this is a bull flag.
ZH: 对于多头来说，这是上涨趋势，空头突破，但这是牛旗
25:06 - 25:10
EN: This is a breakout of the bull flag, and this is a pullback from that breakout,
ZH: 向上突破牛旗，这是突破之后的回调
25:10 - 25:12
EN: and it’s creating another bull flag.
ZH: 它正在形成另一个牛旗
25:12 - 25:16
EN: Small bull trend, and then a Double Bottom – this low, that low.
ZH: 小上涨趋势，然后是双底——这个低点，那个低点
25:16 - 25:19
EN: The market’s been sideways for about 50 bars.
ZH: 市场已经横盘了大约50根K线
25:19 - 25:25
EN: There’s always going to be a reasonable swing setup
ZH: 对于多空双方来说，一定同时存在合理的做多和做空的波段机会
Slide 017
Time: 25:20
Bilingual Transcript
25:22 - 25:25
EN: for the bears and a reasonable swing setup for the bulls.
ZH: 对于多空双方来说，一定同时存在合理的做多和做空的波段机会
25:27 - 25:31
EN: The bears who sold here or here, they will get out above this bull bar.
ZH: 在这里或这里卖出的空头，他们会在这个阳线上方离场
25:31 - 25:36
EN: We have a decent bull bar here and then a second entry here.
ZH: 这里有一个不错的阳线，然后这里是多头的第2入场点
25:36 - 25:39
EN: The bears will give up, and the bulls will buy.
ZH: 空头放弃，多头入场
Slide 018
Time: 25:40
Bilingual Transcript
25:43 - 25:47
EN: We have a bull trend, a bear reversal, but it’s a bear channel,
ZH: 上涨趋势，反转下跌，但这是一个下降通道
25:47 - 25:49
EN: a bull flag, and then we have a bull breakout.
ZH: 是牛旗，然后多头突破
25:49 - 25:54
EN: And this whole bear channel is a pullback from this bull breakout,
ZH: 整个下降通道是这个多头突破之后的回调
25:54 - 25:58
EN: and now we have a High 2 buy and a Higher Low.
ZH: 现在出现了高2买点，并且低点抬高
25:58 - 26:00
EN: The market’s still Always In Long.
ZH: 市场仍然处于单边上涨
26:00 - 26:03
EN: The bears get out and the bulls buy, looking for a swing up.
ZH: 空头离场，多头买入，押注会有上涨波段
26:04 - 26:06
EN: There’s also a small Triangle.
ZH: 还有一个小三角形
26:06 - 26:09
EN: Whenever there’s an ii – this bar is inside that bar,
ZH: 每当出现ii——它在它的里面
26:09 - 26:12
EN: this bar is inside that bar, and this bar is inside that bar,
ZH: 它在它的里面，它在它的里面
26:12 - 26:17
EN: so it’s an iii – it’s always a Triangle on a smaller timeframe chart.
ZH: 所以这是一个iii的结构——在较小的时间周期上， 一定是一个收敛三角形
26:17 - 26:18
EN: You don’t have to look.
ZH: 不看也知道
26:18 - 26:24
EN: You just assume whenever you see an ii or an iii
ZH: 每当你看到ii或iii， 就知道在在较小的时间周期上，是一个三角形
26:22 - 26:24
EN: that it’s a Triangle on a smaller timeframe chart,
ZH: 就知道在在较小的时间周期上，是一个三角形
26:24 - 26:28
EN: and therefore a BreakOut Mode pattern on this chart.
ZH: 所以它在这张图上是一个突破模式
26:30 - 26:31
EN: It’s a nested Triangle.
ZH: 这是一个嵌套式的三角形结构
26:31 - 26:34
EN: We have a reversal down, a second reversal down,
ZH: 反转下跌，第2次反转下跌
26:34 - 26:37
EN: maybe a third reversal down, maybe a third reversal down here.
ZH: 也许这是第3次反转下跌，或者这是也许这是第3次反转下跌
26:37 - 26:42
EN: So it’s a large Triangle – a nested Triangle,
ZH: 所以这是一个大的三角形—— 小三角形嵌套在大三角形的内部
26:40 - 26:42
EN: a small Triangle and a bigger Triangle.
ZH: 所以这是一个大的三角形—— 小三角形嵌套在大三角形的内部
26:42 - 26:46
EN: It does not matter if you call this a Triangle or a Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 你说它是三角形也好，是窄震荡区间也好，
26:46 - 26:48
EN: The implication is the same.
ZH: 含义是一样的
26:48 - 26:54
EN: If the market goes sideways for 20 or more bars in a pullback,
ZH: 如果市场在回调中横盘了超过20根K线， 那么回调就发展成了震荡区间
26:52 - 26:54
EN: the pullback is a Trading Range.
ZH: 如果市场在回调中横盘了超过20根K线， 那么回调就发展成了震荡区间
26:54 - 26:56
EN: Here we have a pullback lasting 20 or 30 bars.
ZH: 这个回调持续了20~30根K线
26:56 - 26:59
EN: Now it’s lasted 50 bars, 60 bars.
ZH: 现在已经持续了50~60根K线
26:59 - 27:07
EN: 50% chance the bull trend will resume up, 50% chance you’ll get a reversal down
ZH: 50%的概率恢复上涨趋势， 50%的概率从更高的高点反转下跌
27:05 - 27:07
EN: from the Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 50%的概率恢复上涨趋势， 50%的概率从更高的高点反转下跌
Slide 019
Time: 27:10
Bilingual Transcript
27:17 - 27:20
EN: I’ve taught thousands of traders how to trade using price action,
ZH: 我已经教了成千上万个交易者如何使用价格行为进行交易
27:21 - 27:26
EN: and if everybody knows it, how can it work well? Because everything looks easy
ZH: 如果每个人都知道它，为什么它会有效呢？ 因为一切看起来都很简单，
27:25 - 27:33
EN: until you’re actually trading it with real money, and the margin for error
ZH: 如果每个人都知道它，为什么它会有效呢？ 因为一切看起来都很简单， 但是当你真金白银交易的时候，几乎没有犯错的空间， 每个小错误都会对你不利
27:29 - 27:33
EN: is very small, and every little mistake works against you.
ZH: 但是当你真金白银交易的时候，几乎没有犯错的空间， 每个小错误都会对你不利
27:33 - 27:37
EN: And therefore, it’s very difficult to trade consistently well.
ZH: 因此，要稳定地做好交易是非常困难的
27:37 - 27:39
EN: You can do it, but it takes practice,
ZH: 你可以做到，但需要大量练习
27:40 - 27:43
EN: and those who understand price action better,
ZH: 对价格行为的理解越深
27:43 - 27:47
EN: those who manage their trades better, have a better chance of making money.
ZH: 对交易的管理越好，赚钱的机会就越大
27:50 - 27:55
EN: Even the best analysis is only going to be right 60% to 70% of the time,
ZH: 即使分析得好，正确率也最多就是60到70%
27:55 - 27:58
EN: and you’re competing against the smartest people in the world.
ZH: 而且你正在和世界上最聪明的人竞争
27:59 - 28:02
EN: You often hear traders talk about trading as a zero sum game
ZH: 你会经常听到交易者说：交易是一个零和游戏
28:03 - 28:08
EN: - in other words, every dollar lost by you is made by me, or vice versa.
ZH: ——换种说法，你每亏一块钱，我就赚一块钱，反之亦然
28:08 - 28:10
EN: It’s not entirely true.
ZH: 这并不完全正确
28:11 - 28:15
EN: You have fees, you have slippage, you have other costs,
ZH: 因为存在手续费，存在滑点，存在其它的交易费用，
28:15 - 28:19
EN: overhead costs like bid/ask spread, so it’s not exactly zero sum.
ZH: 比如要价/出价这样的间接成本，所以不完全是零和 （注：还要交税）
28:19 - 28:23
EN: Also, the world economy has been growing since the beginning
ZH: 此外，世界的经济总量一直在增长，
28:23 - 28:28
EN: of the world economy, and therefore more dollars are going into the economy,
ZH: 更多的金钱投入到了市场之中，
28:28 - 28:31
EN: and therefore it’s not a zero sum game.
ZH: 所以交易并不是一个零和游戏
28:31 - 28:33
EN: The pie keeps getting bigger.
ZH: 蛋糕在不断变大
28:33 - 28:38
EN: But over the short run – a day, a week or so – it is a zero sum game.
ZH: 但在短期内，一天，一周左右，它确实是零和游戏
28:39 - 28:47
EN: Because over the short run it is a zero sum game, all you have to do
ZH: 因为在短期内它是零和游戏， 所以你需要比平均水平做得更好，才能不断地赚钱
28:44 - 28:47
EN: is be better than the average trader to consistently make money.
ZH: 因为在短期内它是零和游戏， 所以你需要比平均水平做得更好，才能不断地赚钱
28:48 - 28:50
EN: You can study a great trader.
ZH: 你可以向优秀的交易者学习
28:50 - 28:54
EN: Warren Buffett is probably the greatest trader of the past 50 years,
ZH: 沃伦·巴菲特是过去50年中最伟大的交易者
28:54 - 28:58
EN: and you could watch him every minute of every day for a year
ZH: 你可以每分每秒都盯着他看，看一年，
28:58 - 29:00
EN: and then try doing what he’s doing on your own,
ZH: 然后尝试复制他所做的事情，
29:00 - 29:05
EN: and you’ll still lose money because it takes a lot of experience.
ZH: 然后你仍然会亏钱，因为这需要大量的经验
29:05 - 29:07
EN: You could watch someone play the violin for a year
ZH: 你可以看别人拉一整年的小提琴
29:07 - 29:10
EN: and then try to play the violin, and you’ll sound terrible.
ZH: 然后试着自己拉拉看，你的琴声一定很糟糕
29:10 - 29:12
EN: It just takes a lot of experience.
ZH: 因为这需要大量的经验
29:15 - 29:17
EN: Soccer as well.
ZH: 足球也是一样
29:17 - 29:24
EN: There’s a big difference between knowing how to play soccer and knowing
ZH: 知道怎么踢足球，和通过踢球赚大钱，是两码事
29:20 - 29:24
EN: how to play it well enough to make a living, to have people pay you to do it.
ZH: 知道怎么踢足球，和通过踢球赚大钱，是两码事
29:24 - 29:28
EN: So it does not matter if everyone knows basic price action.
ZH: 就算每个人都知道基本的价格行为
29:29 - 29:32
EN: Can they apply it and can they manage their trades well?
ZH: 他们能否在实盘交易中应用？能否管理好他们的交易？
29:32 - 29:36
EN: That’s the difference between making money and not making money.
ZH: 这就是赚钱和不赚钱的区别
Slide 020
Time: 29:40
Bilingual Transcript
29:41 - 29:46
EN: If you ever play poker, every player quickly decides who the weakest player is.
ZH: 如果打扑克，所有玩家很快就会知道谁最弱
29:46 - 29:49
EN: That’s the easiest person from whom you can take money.
ZH: 你可以轻松地从他手中赚钱
29:49 - 29:51
EN: They’re going to lose all the time.
ZH: 他会一直输
29:51 - 29:52
EN: That person is the mark.
ZH: 那个人就是鱼（注：水平最低的）
29:54 - 30:00
EN: In general, if you’re playing poker and you don’t know
ZH: 通常来说，如果你在打扑克，而你还没看出谁是鱼， 那么你就是那条鱼
29:58 - 30:00
EN: who the mark is, then you’re the mark.
ZH: 通常来说，如果你在打扑克，而你还没看出谁是鱼， 那么你就是那条鱼
30:00 - 30:03
EN: You’re the person that everyone’s trying to take money from.
ZH: 所有人都会想从你手中赚钱
30:03 - 30:07
EN: In trading, if you don’t know price action well enough to understand
ZH: 在交易中，如果你对价格行为的了解不够， 以至于无法理解谁被套牢了
30:06 - 30:10
EN: who’s going to be trapped in a trade, you’ll soon discover that it’s you.
ZH: 在交易中，如果你对价格行为的了解不够， 以至于无法理解谁被套牢了 你很快就会发现，是你自己被套牢了
30:10 - 30:14
EN: You really have to understand price action to trade profitably.
ZH: 你必须真正理解价格行为，才能在交易中赚钱
30:19 - 30:23
EN: It’s really important, whenever you take any trade, to believe
ZH: 这真的很重要，每当你做任何交易时，
30:23 - 30:27
EN: that the exact opposite of what you believe is going to happen,
ZH: 都要知道，和你所期待完全相反的事情会发生
30:27 - 30:31
EN: is going to happen at least 40% of the time – because that’s true.
ZH: 而且发生的概率至少有40%——真的是这样
30:31 - 30:36
EN: The probability is always 40% to 60% during 90% of the bars on every chart,
ZH: 任何K线图上90%的时间里，概率总是在40-60%之间
30:36 - 30:40
EN: and therefore no matter how certain you are
ZH: 因此，无论你多确定市场会做某件事，
30:38 - 30:40
EN: that the market’s going to do something,
ZH: 因此，无论你多确定市场会做某件事，
30:40 - 30:44
EN: there’s at least a 40% chance that it’s going to be the opposite.
ZH: 至少有40%的概率会完全相反
Slide 021
Time: 30:50
Bilingual Transcript
30:51 - 30:53
EN: The market was in a bear trend here.
ZH: 这里市场处于下降趋势
30:55 - 31:00
EN: The bears can argue, nested Wedge.
ZH: 空头可以说这是嵌套式楔形顶——1，2，3
30:58 - 31:03
EN: One, two, three, a bigger Wedge, one, two, and then three.
ZH: 空头可以说这是嵌套式楔形顶——1，2，3 还有更大的楔形顶——1，2，3
31:03 - 31:06
EN: You can call it a Double Bottom – one, two
ZH: 你也可以说这是一个双底——1，2
31:06 - 31:08
EN: - and a decent bull bar, and it’s a second entry buy.
ZH: 不错的阳线，这是第2做多入场点
31:08 - 31:10
EN: A decent bull bar here.
ZH: 这里有一个不错的阳线
31:11 - 31:14
EN: It triggered by going above that, and now we have a second entry buy.
ZH: 它的上方触发了第1入场点，现在这是第2入场点
31:15 - 31:17
EN: A lot of bears will exit here.
ZH: 一些空头会在这里离场
31:17 - 31:18
EN: The channel is tight.
ZH: 下降通道很窄
31:18 - 31:21
EN: They know the reversal is probably minor,
ZH: 他们知道这大概率只是小反弹
31:21 - 31:25
EN: and it will result either in a bear flag or a Trading Range.
ZH: 会变成熊旗或震荡区间.
31:28 - 31:29
EN: We’re going sideways.
ZH: 市场正在横盘
31:29 - 31:33
EN: The bulls are hoping that this is a bear trend, bull breakout,
ZH: 多头希望这是下降趋势，多头突破
31:33 - 31:37
EN: and a Double Bottom Higher Low Major Trend Reversal
ZH: 然后是低点抬高的双底大反转
31:37 - 31:40
EN: or a Head and Shoulders Bottom – left shoulder, head, right shoulder.
ZH: 或者是头肩底——左肩，头，右肩
31:40 - 31:43
EN: Again, it’s reasonable to exit there as well.
ZH: 同样，在那里离场也是合理的
31:45 - 31:48
EN: Another attempt at a Double Bottom
ZH: 又一个双底的尝试
31:48 - 31:51
EN: or a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal, and a good bull bar.
ZH: 低点抬高的大反转，有不错的阳线
31:52 - 31:54
EN: You can call it a Triangle if you want.
ZH: 你可以把它看作三角形
31:54 - 31:59
EN: Three reversals up – one, two, three – and a horizontal Trading Range.
ZH: 3次上涨反转——1，2，3——水平的震荡区间
32:02 - 32:06
EN: Good traders, if they get trapped out of a good trade,
ZH: 优秀的交易者，如果他们被困在一笔好的交易外面
32:06 - 32:07
EN: are always looking to sell again.
ZH: 他们一定会想办法再次入场做空
32:07 - 32:11
EN: The market stayed Always In Short all the way down, and therefore,
ZH: 市场仍然处于单边下跌，
32:11 - 32:14
EN: if a bear exited, he needs to sell again below a bear bar.
ZH: 所以空头离场之后，他会在阴线下方重新卖出做空
32:14 - 32:16
EN: So he’ll sell below that bear bar.
ZH: 他会在那根阴线下方卖出
32:16 - 32:19
EN: If he exited here, he’s going to sell below a bear bar,
ZH: 如果他在这里离场，他会在阴线下方再次卖出
32:19 - 32:22
EN: either below that bear bar or that bear bar.
ZH: 在它，或者它的下方
32:22 - 32:24
EN: And the same here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
32:24 - 32:26
EN: If the bear exits above that bull bar and the market
ZH: 如果空头在那根阳线上方离场了
32:26 - 32:30
EN: does not become Always In Long, it’s still Always In Short.
ZH: 市场没有反转手中，而是仍然处于单边下跌
32:30 - 32:32
EN: He has to sell again below a bear bar,
ZH: 他一定会在阴线下方再次做空
32:32 - 32:35
EN: like below that bear bar or below that bull low.
ZH: 比如在那根阴线，或者这根阳线的下方
32:38 - 32:41
EN: A good trader is not going to let himself be trapped out of a trade for long.
ZH: 当优秀的交易者发现错过机会之后，会很快找机会入场
32:41 - 32:44
EN: If the market is still Always In Short and he exits
ZH: 如果市场仍然处于单边下跌，但他离场了，
32:45 - 32:49
EN: and he wants to trade always-in, he wants to stay in the market all the time,
ZH: 他想要一直参与市场、做顺势交易的话，
32:49 - 32:51
EN: he has to sell again below a bear bar.
ZH: 他会在阴线下方再次入场做空
32:51 - 32:53
EN: And the opposite is true in a bull trend.
ZH: 上涨趋势中也是一样
32:59 - 33:05
EN: In a Trading Range, the probability is high for the bears
ZH: 在震荡区间中，顶部附近做空的胜率很高， 底部附近做多的胜率很高
Slide 022
Time: 33:00
Bilingual Transcript
33:02 - 33:05
EN: near the top and high for the bulls near the bottom.
ZH: 在震荡区间中，顶部附近做空的胜率很高， 底部附近做多的胜率很高
Slide 023
Time: 33:06
Bilingual Transcript
33:08 - 33:13
EN: The market is clearly going sideways here, and at some point you decide this
ZH: 显然市场正在横盘震荡，某个时刻你发现，
33:13 - 33:16
EN: is the upper half of the range, this is the lower half of the range.
ZH: 这是区间的上半部分，这是区间的下半部分
33:19 - 33:22
EN: In general you want to buy low, sell high, and scalp.
ZH: 通常来说，你应该高抛低吸，剥头皮、赚快钱
33:22 - 33:24
EN: If it’s in the top half, it’s better to look to sell.
ZH: 如果价格处于上半部分，最好考虑做空
33:24 - 33:27
EN: If it’s in the bottom half, it’s better to look to buy.
ZH: 如果处于下半部分，最好考虑做多
33:27 - 33:31
EN: And it’s also better to look to take quick profits (scalp)
ZH: 而且最好是赚了就走（剥头皮交易）
33:31 - 33:34
EN: because chances are, the market’s going to stay in the range.
ZH: 因为大概率，市场会继续震荡 （注：不会有大波段，不止盈的话利润就没了）
33:37 - 33:43
EN: The probability for making money is higher in the upper half
ZH: 在上半部分，做空赚钱的概率更高
33:41 - 33:48
EN: if you’re a bear looking to sell, and the probability for profits
ZH: 在上半部分，做空赚钱的概率更高 在下半部分，做多赚钱的概率更高
33:46 - 33:48
EN: is better for the bulls in the lower half.
ZH: 在下半部分，做多赚钱的概率更高
33:48 - 33:50
EN: Buy low, sell high.
ZH: 逢低买，逢高卖
33:50 - 33:53
EN: Bears make money selling in the upper half,
ZH: 空头在上半部分卖做空赚钱
33:53 - 33:55
EN: bulls make money buying in the lower half.
ZH: 多头在下半部分做多赚钱
33:59 - 34:03
EN: In the top third, the probability can be very high for the bears.
ZH: 在顶部三分之一，做空赚钱的胜率会很高
Slide 024
Time: 34:00
Bilingual Transcript
34:03 - 34:06
EN: For example, if you’re looking to make X number of ticks or pips,
ZH: 比如，假设你想赚X个ticks
34:06 - 34:13
EN: there’s usually a 60% chance that you’ll get your target
ZH: 如果止损和利润一样大，你有60%的概率可以赚到钱， 而不是被止损
34:10 - 34:13
EN: before your stop is hit if the stop is just as far.
ZH: 如果止损和利润一样大，你有60%的概率可以赚到钱， 而不是被止损
34:13 - 34:18
EN: So 10 ticks or 10 pips, looking to sell in the upper third
ZH: 假设是10个ticks，你在顶部三分之一做空
34:18 - 34:22
EN: - 60% chance you’ll reach your 10 pips or 10 ticks profit
ZH: ——60%的概率你会赚到10个ticks
34:22 - 34:26
EN: before a 10 ticks or 10 pip stop is hit.
ZH: 而不是被止损、亏10个ticks
34:26 - 34:33
EN: Doesn’t matter, 10 ticks, 15 ticks, 27 ticks, 27 pips up, 27 pips down.
ZH: 无论是10，15，还是27ticks
34:33 - 34:35
EN: In the upper third of a Trading Range,
ZH: 在震荡区间顶部的三分之一
34:35 - 34:38
EN: taking the bear side has a 60% chance of making money.
ZH: 空头有60%的概率可以赚钱
34:38 - 34:40
EN: On the lower third of a Trading Range,
ZH: 而在震荡区间底部的三分之一
34:40 - 34:44
EN: taking the bull side has a 60% chance of making money.
ZH: 多头有60%的概率赚钱
34:48 - 34:53
EN: For example, buying in the bottom third, looking for a 10 pip scalp
ZH: 例如，在底部三分之一买入， 想要冒10 pips的风险赚10 pips
34:52 - 34:56
EN: and risking 10 pips – 60% chance you’re going to make money.
ZH: 例如，在底部三分之一买入， 想要冒10 pips的风险赚10 pips 60%的概率你可以赚到钱
34:58 - 35:02
EN: The middle third is 50/50 chance that, buying or selling,
ZH: 中间中三分之一，不管做多做空，概率是50对50，
35:02 - 35:08
EN: that you’ll make X number of pips or X number of ticks
ZH: 赚X个点和亏X个点的概率都一样
35:06 - 35:08
EN: before you lose the same amount.
ZH: 赚X个点和亏X个点的概率都一样
35:09 - 35:15
EN: So for example, buying or selling anywhere in the blue,
ZH: 例如，蓝色区域，也就是中间三分之一， 在这里的任何地方做多或做空
35:12 - 35:15
EN: in the middle third of a Trading Range, and you’re looking
ZH: 例如，蓝色区域，也就是中间三分之一， 在这里的任何地方做多或做空
35:15 - 35:20
EN: to make 10 ticks or 10 pips buying, risking 10 ticks or 10 pips below,
ZH: 你想要冒10 ticks的风险赚10 ticks
35:20 - 35:25
EN: you have a 50/50 chance that the market
ZH: 你成功的概率是50% （注：概率一样，盈亏比一样，所以没有意义）
35:23 - 35:25
EN: will reach your target before it hits your stop.
ZH: 你成功的概率是50% （注：概率一样，盈亏比一样，所以没有意义）
Slide 025
Time: 35:28
Bilingual Transcript
35:30 - 35:39
EN: I talked about high probability and how every trader is 90% certain
ZH: 这节课我首先讲了，为什么说所有交易者都在某一瞬间， 心中至少有90%的信心认为自己可以赚钱
35:35 - 35:39
EN: of making money at least briefly during every trade.
ZH: 这节课我首先讲了，为什么说所有交易者都在某一瞬间， 心中至少有90%的信心认为自己可以赚钱
35:39 - 35:43
EN: When the market hits their limit order and they need only 1 more tick
ZH: 当价格刚好碰到他们的止盈限价单，
35:43 - 35:48
EN: or 1 more pip to make money, their stop might be 10 ticks or 10 pips away.
ZH: 只需要再走1个tick就可以顺利止盈， 但此时止损可能在10 ticks之外
35:48 - 35:53
EN: They can only hold onto their trade if they are 90% certain
ZH: 如果不是90%确定，他们就不会继续持有
35:52 - 35:57
EN: that they’ll make money – and most traders would hold at least
ZH: 如果不是90%确定，他们就不会继续持有 而绝大部分交易者都会在第1次测试目标位之后选择继续持有
35:55 - 35:57
EN: after the first test of their target.
ZH: 而绝大部分交易者都会在第1次测试目标位之后选择继续持有
35:58 - 36:03
EN: The 40 – 60 Rule: during 90% of the bars on every chart,
ZH: 40-60法则：任何K线图上90%的K线
36:03 - 36:11
EN: the probability is always at least 40% for any buy or any sell,
ZH: 不管做多还是做空，概率都不会低于40%， 但也不会高于60%
36:08 - 36:11
EN: and it’s never greater than 60% for any buy or sell.
ZH: 不管做多还是做空，概率都不会低于40%， 但也不会高于60%
36:11 - 36:15
EN: A good trader can make money buying or selling
ZH: 一个优秀的交易者在90%的时间里，
36:15 - 36:19
EN: during 90% of the bars on a chart, if he manages his trade correctly.
ZH: 不管做多做空都可以赚钱， 因为他知道如何正确地管理
36:21 - 36:28
EN: When the market’s in a Trading Range, the probability is high near the top
ZH: 当市场处于震荡区间时，顶部附近做空胜率高， 底部附近做多胜率高
36:24 - 36:28
EN: for the bears and high near the bottom for the bulls.
ZH: 当市场处于震荡区间时，顶部附近做空胜率高， 底部附近做多胜率高
36:33 - 36:34
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
36:34 - 36:36
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
36:36 - 36:40
EN: This is the fifth of five videos on the Trader’s Equation and probability.
ZH: 数学期望和概率的5节课，到这里就全部讲完了