al-brooks-course
35C - Scaling In
Raw transcript and slide notes for 35C - Scaling In.
Overview
- Slides: 17
- Transcript segments: 471
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:01
Bilingual Transcript
00:01 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:10
EN: This is the third of three videos on scaling into trades.
ZH: 这是加仓的第3节课，也是最后1节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:12
Bilingual Transcript
00:13 - 00:17
EN: In this video I’m going to be talking about two sample strategies.
ZH: 这节课我会讲解两种示例策略
00:17 - 00:27
EN: The first one is when you enter a trade and then you enter a trade again
ZH: 第1个策略是，入场之后加仓1次，总共是两次入场
00:24 - 00:27
EN: a second time, so you’re entering in two different parts.
ZH: 第1个策略是，入场之后加仓1次，总共是两次入场
00:27 - 00:32
EN: For that, I will use an example of an Emini trade where you buy
ZH: 第1个案例，我会用ES期货的案例，
00:32 - 00:39
EN: or sell 1 contract and then you add to your position buying
ZH: 在做多或做空1手合约之后， 加仓做多或做空1手合约
00:37 - 00:39
EN: or selling a second contract.
ZH: 在做多或做空1手合约之后， 加仓做多或做空1手合约
00:39 - 00:43
EN: Next I’ll talk about another sample strategy,
ZH: 然后我会讲解第2个案例
00:43 - 00:47
EN: this time where you divide your position into four different parts,
ZH: 这一次，是把仓位分成4次入场
00:47 - 00:53
EN: and for that I’ll use a Forex market and 400,000 units.
ZH: 我会用外汇交易为例，总仓位是40万手 （注：因为外汇很小，所以通常10万手是最基本的仓位）
00:53 - 00:56
EN: So your first entry is 100,000 units,
ZH: 第1次入场是10万手
00:56 - 01:02
EN: your second entry is 100,000 units, and your third entry is 200,000 units.
ZH: 第2次入场也是10万手，而第3次入场是20万手
01:02 - 01:05
EN: So four parts, but three entries.
ZH: 所以是把仓位4等分，一共是3次入场
Slide 002
Time: 01:08
Bilingual Transcript
01:10 - 01:13
EN: Here we have a strong bull trend and a Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 强上涨趋势，双底牛旗
01:13 - 01:15
EN: You can call it a Triangle.
ZH: 也可以说它是三角形—— 如果这里也看作是一次上涨和下跌的话
01:14 - 01:15
EN: We went up and down here.
ZH: 也可以说它是三角形—— 如果这里也看作是一次上涨和下跌的话
01:15 - 01:20
EN: But in any case, let’s say you buy 1 contract above a High 2 bull flag,
ZH: 总之，假设你在高2牛旗上方做多1手合约
01:22 - 01:28
EN: and let’s say you can trade 2 contracts, and you’re willing
ZH: 假设你总共可以交易2手合约， 并且你愿意在下方1个点的地方加仓——
01:26 - 01:33
EN: to buy more 1 point lower – again, equal to the distance
ZH: 假设你总共可以交易2手合约， 并且你愿意在下方1个点的地方加仓—— 再次强调，加仓至少要隔开一笔剥头皮交易的距离
01:31 - 01:33
EN: of a minimum scalp in the Emini.
ZH: 再次强调，加仓至少要隔开一笔剥头皮交易的距离
01:34 - 01:38
EN: And let’s say you’re willing to risk 6 points below the first buy.
ZH: 假设你愿意承担6个点的止损
01:38 - 01:42
EN: So if you buy here, you’re willing to put a stop 6 points down,
ZH: 比如，你在这里买入，然后把止损放在下方6个点的位置
01:42 - 01:44
EN: and you’re going to be buying 1 point lower,
ZH: 然后你在初始入场价格下方1个点的位置加仓
01:44 - 01:48
EN: so you’ll be risking 5 points on your second entry.
ZH: 也就是说，你的第2笔仓位又承担了5个点的风险
01:48 - 01:52
EN: That means you’re willing to risk 11 points to make 1 point.
ZH: 这意味着你冒了11个点的风险，去赚1个点的利润
01:54 - 01:58
EN: Now, in this particular case, if you’re buying the – this Double Bottom bull flag,
ZH: 现在，在这个案例中，如果你在双底牛旗上方买入，
01:58 - 02:00
EN: you might put your stop just below the Double Bottom.
ZH: 把止损放在双底的下方
02:01 - 02:06
EN: Your actual risk is not 11 points trying to make, you know, 1 point or 2 points.
ZH: 你的风险并没有11个点这么大
02:06 - 02:09
EN: The risk is not as great as it appears.
ZH: 这笔交易实际上的风险很小
Slide 003
Time: 02:10
Bilingual Transcript
02:11 - 02:14
EN: And if the market quickly goes up for a scalp,
ZH: 如果市场快速上涨
02:14 - 02:16
EN: assuming you’re scalping this,
ZH: 假设你在做剥头皮
02:17 - 02:19
EN: you bought 1 contract here.
ZH: 你在这里买入了1手合约
02:21 - 02:26
EN: It quickly went to your target, and you take a 1 point profit on the 1 contract.
ZH: 很快就涨到了你的目标位， 所以你的1手合约赚到了1个点（注：$50美金）
02:26 - 02:30
EN: Now, this is a strategy about scaling in in two parts.
ZH: 刚才说了，这是加仓一次的策略
02:30 - 02:37
EN: You only put the second part on if the market goes against you
ZH: 只有当市场反向移动，并且跌幅至少达到1个点的时候， 你才加仓
02:33 - 02:37
EN: and falls at least 1 point below your first entry.
ZH: 只有当市场反向移动，并且跌幅至少达到1个点的时候， 你才加仓
02:37 - 02:42
EN: And a lot of times it doesn’t fall.
ZH: 尤其是强趋势、高胜率的机会， 很多时候它不会下跌，而是直接上涨
02:39 - 02:42
EN: It just goes up, especially in a high probability buy.
ZH: 尤其是强趋势、高胜率的机会， 很多时候它不会下跌，而是直接上涨
02:42 - 02:46
EN: Very strong momentum up; chances are if you get a Double Bottom,
ZH: 非常强的上涨动能； 如果出现高2双底牛旗，
02:46 - 02:50
EN: a High 2 bull flag, you’re going to make money without having to scale in.
ZH: 你不需要加仓（来提高胜率），也能赚到钱
02:50 - 02:52
EN: If that happens, you just take your profit.
ZH: 如果是这种情况，你直接止盈就可以了
02:52 - 02:53
EN: That’s okay.
ZH: 这么做是ok的
02:58 - 03:03
EN: Most traders in a situation like this after
ZH: 大多数交易者在这么强的趋势中， 不会只赚1个点就离场
03:01 - 03:03
EN: a strong rally would not be scalping for 1 point.
ZH: 大多数交易者在这么强的趋势中， 不会只赚1个点就离场
03:03 - 03:06
EN: They would be holding, and maybe getting out here.
ZH: 他们会继续持有，可能一直到这里再离场
03:06 - 03:11
EN: Spike and Channel up, a Micro Double Top here and here, Wedge
ZH: 急速上涨变通道，这里和这里是一个小双顶
03:11 - 03:14
EN: - one, two, three, Parabolic Wedge.
ZH: 而且1，2，3——抛物线楔形顶
03:14 - 03:16
EN: Buy Climax here.
ZH: 这里是抢购高潮
03:16 - 03:19
EN: But anyway, most traders would not scalp their entire position here.
ZH: 总之，大部分交易者不会只做剥头皮交易
03:19 - 03:23
EN: They might scalp part, but most traders would hold at least part for a swing up.
ZH: 可能一部分的仓位快速止盈， 然后剩下的仓位继续持有，预期上涨波段
03:27 - 03:30
EN: Again, a trader who bought here did not have to scale in
ZH: 再讲一遍，在这里买入的多头不需要加仓 （注：原本做好了亏损加仓的打算，但这里不需要）
03:30 - 03:32
EN: because the market never went against him.
ZH: 因为在开仓之后，市场没有下跌过 （注：始终没有浮亏，所以不存在浮亏加仓）
03:32 - 03:34
EN: It quickly went to his target and he took his profit.
ZH: 市场很快就涨到了他的目标位
03:37 - 03:39
EN: Talk about the risk when you’re scaling in.
ZH: 我想讲一讲加仓所带来的风险
03:40 - 03:45
EN: Most traders should not be scaling in because the risk/reward is really bad.
ZH: 大多数交易者不应该加仓，因为盈亏比会变得非常糟糕
03:45 - 03:51
EN: You know, you end up getting a very big risk and you’re probably not going
ZH: 加仓之后，你会承担很大的风险
03:51 - 03:53
EN: to get much of a reward, especially if you’re scalping.
ZH: 尤其是做剥头皮交易，利润又不多
03:54 - 03:56
EN: You have to make a lot of good decisions,
ZH: 你需要做出很多正确的决定
03:56 - 03:59
EN: and you need really good trade management.
ZH: 并且需要非常好的交易管理
03:59 - 04:02
EN: I’ll talk about that later on in the video.
ZH: 这节课的后面我们会讲到这个话题
04:03 - 04:06
EN: It’s too difficult for most traders to do this consistently well.
ZH: 对于大多数交易者来说，很难一直“完美发挥”
Slide 004
Time: 04:03
Bilingual Transcript
04:08 - 04:12
EN: So let’s say you see a strong bull trend, strong second leg up
ZH: 强上涨趋势，强势的第2段上涨
04:12 - 04:16
EN: - maybe we’ll get a third leg up and a fourth leg up,
ZH: ——也许还有第3、第4段上涨，就这样涨一整天
04:14 - 04:19
EN: and it just keeps going up all day, and so you’re looking at this
ZH: ——也许还有第3、第4段上涨，就这样涨一整天 之前你在这里买入，很快止盈离场
04:17 - 04:19
EN: and you say, “Okay, I bought here, I got out here.
ZH: 之前你在这里买入，很快止盈离场
04:19 - 04:21
EN: I want to buy again.
ZH: 现在你想再次买入：
04:21 - 04:24
EN: I’m going to buy the follow-through after this bull breakout bar.”
ZH: “我要在突破大阳线之后的跟随K线买入”
04:24 - 04:26
EN: Most traders would not do this.
ZH: 大多数交易者不会这样做
04:26 - 04:32
EN: This is a series of Buy Climaxes here and then here
ZH: 这是一系列的抢购高潮， 而且1，2，3——抛物线楔形顶
04:30 - 04:32
EN: and then here and here, Parabolic Wedge.
ZH: 这是一系列的抢购高潮， 而且1，2，3——抛物线楔形顶
04:32 - 04:34
EN: The biggest bull bar late in a trend.
ZH: 这是趋势后期体积最大的大阳线
04:34 - 04:38
EN: But the math is still good, even buying up here.
ZH: 然而，即使是在这里买入，数学上仍然合理
04:38 - 04:41
EN: However, the chances are you’re going to get some kind of a pullback.
ZH: 然而，你很可能会遇到回调
04:41 - 04:44
EN: But let’s say you took that worst entry and bought up here again,
ZH: 假设你不幸追涨在最高点，然后打算在下方加仓
04:44 - 04:48
EN: so you bought 1 contract up there, arguing a very Tight Bull Channel,
ZH: 你在这里买入1手合约，因为这是很窄的上涨通道
04:48 - 04:53
EN: first reversal down minor – the best the bears probably get is a Trading Range.
ZH: 第1次下跌大概率只是小回调—— 空头能得到的最好结果也就是震荡区间
04:55 - 04:58
EN: And then let’s say you place a limit order to buy more 1 point lower.
ZH: 然后你在下方1个点的位置挂限价买单
04:58 - 05:04
EN: So you buy 1 contract in the green box and the second contract on the yellow box.
ZH: 所以你在绿色框框的地方买入1手合约， 在黄色框框又买入1手
05:06 - 05:07
EN: Stop is down here.
ZH: 止损在这里
05:07 - 05:12
EN: It’s 18 ticks below the first entry, 14 ticks below the second entry,
ZH: 止损距离第1次入场18 ticks，距离第2次入场14 ticks （注：ES中，1个点是4个ticks）
05:12 - 05:17
EN: so your total risk if you buy here and buy more here is 32 ticks,
ZH: 所以如果你在这里买入，然后在这里加仓， 总的风险是32 ticks（注：32 * 12.5 = 400美金）
05:17 - 05:19
EN: and you’re simply trying to make 4 ticks.
ZH: 而你的目标只是赚4 ticks （注：即1个点，50美金）
05:19 - 05:22
EN: You’re just hoping the market gets back to that green box
ZH: 你只是希望市场回到绿色框框
05:22 - 05:26
EN: so you get out breakeven on that buy and with 4 ticks on this buy.
ZH: 这样初始仓位打平，加仓的部分赚4 ticks
05:28 - 05:30
EN: And you can say, “Wait a minute.
ZH: 你肯定会想：“等一下！这也太离谱了！
05:29 - 05:30
EN: That’s crazy.
ZH: 你肯定会想：“等一下！这也太离谱了！
05:30 - 05:32
EN: How can I take that buy?
ZH: 怎么可能这样做？
05:32 - 05:35
EN: Can’t risk that much to make that little.”
ZH: 冒了这么大的风险，只为了赚一点点？”
05:35 - 05:38
EN: Well, the reality is, most of the time you’re not going to buy the worst price.
ZH: 事实上，大多数时候你不会正好被套牢在最高点
05:38 - 05:40
EN: Chances are you’ll be buying somewhere in here,
ZH: 你很可能是在这里的某个地方买入的
05:40 - 05:43
EN: and it will quickly go to your target.
ZH: 然后市场会迅速涨到你的目标
05:43 - 05:46
EN: And also, if the reversal down is strong enough,
ZH: 而且，如果下跌足够强势
05:46 - 05:48
EN: you’re not going to let your stop get hit.
ZH: 你不一定要让止损真的被打掉
05:48 - 05:50
EN: You’ll get out before your stop is hit.
ZH: 你总是可以提前离场的
05:51 - 05:55
EN: The high close in any bull trend is always a magnet because you have traders
ZH: 每个上涨趋势中最高的那个收盘价， 总是一个磁铁（注：磁铁即目标位）
05:55 - 06:00
EN: who bought it, and usually a market does not reverse down into a bear trend;
ZH: 因为有交易者在那里买入， 而且通常市场不会直接反转变成下降趋势
06:00 - 06:02
EN: it reverses down into a Trading Range.
ZH: 最多反转下跌进入震荡区间
06:02 - 06:07
EN: Any bear selling up here is expecting at best a Trading Range,
ZH: 任何在这里做空的空头，也只是预期震荡区间
06:07 - 06:11
EN: so he’s going to sell and he’ll buy back for a scalp and look to sell again higher.
ZH: 空头做空之后会很快地止盈、剥头皮， 然后等着再次在高位做空
06:11 - 06:15
EN: And the bulls know the first reversal down from a very Tight Bull Channel
ZH: 而多头知道，很窄的上涨通道，第1次下跌
06:15 - 06:21
EN: like this is going to be minor, and chances are for the bears,
ZH: 大概率都只是小回调； 对于空头来说，最好的结果也只不过是震荡区间
06:19 - 06:21
EN: the best that will follow is a Trading Range.
ZH: 大概率都只是小回调； 对于空头来说，最好的结果也只不过是震荡区间
06:21 - 06:23
EN: So the bulls know that if they sell here,
ZH: 所以多头知道，即使他们追涨在最高位
06:23 - 06:26
EN: Trading Range goes down and it goes back up.
ZH: 震荡区间会有下跌回调，但最终会涨回来的
06:26 - 06:30
EN: They know that they’ll probably be able to get out without a loss.
ZH: 多头知道自己至少不会亏钱
06:33 - 06:36
EN: A lot of traders, they buy here, maybe they buy more here.
ZH: 很多交易者，他们在这里买入，然后在这里加仓
06:36 - 06:39
EN: They place a limit order to get out breakeven at their first entry,
ZH: 然后在这里挂限价卖单，这样初始仓位是打平的
06:39 - 06:42
EN: and they make their 1 point profit on their second entry.
ZH: 而加仓的部分可以赚1个点
06:42 - 06:46
EN: Some traders would buy here and then buy above a bull bar, here or here,
ZH: 一些交易者会在这里买入，然后在阳线上方加仓， 比如这里或这里
06:46 - 06:50
EN: and they would make more on their second entry, and that’s okay as well.
ZH: 那么他们加仓的部分就赚得更多，当然也是ok的
Slide 005
Time: 06:50
Bilingual Transcript
06:52 - 06:53
EN: This is a very Tight Bull Channel.
ZH: 这是一个非常窄的上涨通道
06:53 - 06:55
EN: It’s a Micro Channel, no pullbacks.
ZH: 这是一个微通道，没有任何回调 （注：没有跌破前1根K线的最低点）
06:55 - 07:00
EN: It could go up for 5, 10, 15 more bars, and that’s why bulls will buy here
ZH: 它可能会再上涨5、10、15根K线， 所以会有多头在这里买入
07:00 - 07:04
EN: despite the climax of this bar and despite the consecutive Buy Climaxes.
ZH: 尽管这根大阳线是抢购高潮，尽管已经有连续的抢购高潮
07:04 - 07:08
EN: They see the momentum is so strong that chances are it’s going higher,
ZH: 他们看到动能如此强势，大概率会继续上涨
07:08 - 07:13
EN: and even if it does not, chances are they will be able to avoid a loss
ZH: 即使没有上涨，他们也至少不会亏钱
07:13 - 07:17
EN: because the first reversal down will probably come back up and test that buy.
ZH: 因为在第1次回调之后，价格会涨回来， 再次测试这个高点
07:17 - 07:20
EN: Any time you do a reason – a reasonable buy,
ZH: 任何时候，只要你的入场点是合理的
07:20 - 07:23
EN: the market usually allows you to get out without a loss.
ZH: 通常都至少能够不亏离场
07:24 - 07:30
EN: Buying up here, chances are it’s going to come back there at some point
ZH: 在这里追涨，即使遇到回调， 大概率在未来的某个时候会涨回来，让你可以避免亏损
07:28 - 07:30
EN: and you can avoid a loss.
ZH: 在这里追涨，即使遇到回调， 大概率在未来的某个时候会涨回来，让你可以避免亏损
07:33 - 07:36
EN: A big bull bar, consecutive Buy Climaxes here.
ZH: 大阳线，连续的抢购高潮
07:36 - 07:37
EN: Bad follow-throughhere.
ZH: 这里的跟随不好
07:37 - 07:38
EN: Bad follow-throughhere.
ZH: 这里的跟随不好
07:38 - 07:42
EN: Bad follow-through here, Bad follow-through here.
ZH: 跟随不好，跟随不好，跟随不好
07:41 - 07:42
EN: Bad follow-through.
ZH: 跟随不好，跟随不好，跟随不好
07:42 - 07:44
EN: You know, when you get a series of consecutive Buy Climaxes
ZH: 在一系列连续的抢购高潮之后，
07:44 - 07:47
EN: and then you get the big bull bar at the end,
ZH: 又出现体积最大的大阳线，
07:47 - 07:50
EN: chances are you’re soon going to go into a Trading Range.
ZH: 市场大概率很快就会进入震荡区间
07:50 - 07:52
EN: So most traders would not buy up there.
ZH: 所以大多数交易者不会在这里追涨
07:52 - 07:58
EN: But even if you did take that worst entry, it’s still not a terrible thing to do
ZH: 然而，即使你正好被套牢在最高点， 这仍然不是世界末日
07:58 - 08:01
EN: because if you manage your trade well, you can make money
ZH: 因为只要你正确地管理这笔交易，你还是可以赚钱的
08:01 - 08:05
EN: - make money buying here or, better, buying above a bull bar here
ZH: ——比如在这里加仓，或者更好的做法是， 在这根阳线上方加仓，
08:05 - 08:09
EN: or maybe a Double Bottom here, maybe above that bull bar there.
ZH: 或者在这里的双底加仓，或者在那根阳线上方加仓
08:10 - 08:16
EN: Only 25% of bull breakouts of bull channels result in stronger bull trends.
ZH: 上涨通道加速突破，只有25%的概率会变成更强的上涨趋势
08:16 - 08:21
EN: 75% of the time if you have a bull channel, even a very tight one like this,
ZH: 75%的时间里，即使是这么窄的上涨通道
08:21 - 08:27
EN: the market’s going to get at least to the bottom of the channel,
ZH: 市场至少会有两三段横盘或下跌，测试通道的起点
08:24 - 08:27
EN: and usually you get a couple legs sideways to down.
ZH: 市场至少会有两三段横盘或下跌，测试通道的起点
08:32 - 08:35
EN: A reversal down after a tight bull Micro Channel.
ZH: 窄上涨通道之后的回调下跌
08:35 - 08:38
EN: Unlikely to result in a bear trend.
ZH: 不太可能直接变成下降趋势
08:39 - 08:45
EN: The bears usually will need a Major Trend Reversal
ZH: 空头通常需要一个大反转的结构—— 比如这样，才能形成下跌的波段
08:42 - 08:45
EN: like this before they can get a swing down.
ZH: 空头通常需要一个大反转的结构—— 比如这样，才能形成下跌的波段
08:46 - 08:48
EN: The bulls buying here.
ZH: 多头在这里追涨
08:48 - 08:51
EN: Once it does this, they know they bought at a high price,
ZH: 他们知道自己买入的价格很高
08:51 - 08:55
EN: but they’re also pretty confident that it will come back to that price
ZH: 但他们也很有信心，认为市场会回到这个价格
08:55 - 08:59
EN: and they’ll be able to get out breakeven,
ZH: 让他们可以打平离场，或者小亏、小赚一些
08:57 - 08:59
EN: maybe a small loss, maybe a small profit.
ZH: 让他们可以打平离场，或者小亏、小赚一些
Slide 006
Time: 09:00
Bilingual Transcript
09:05 - 09:09
EN: The reward is small compared to the risk.
ZH: 与风险相比，利润很小
09:09 - 09:11
EN: So if you buy here and buy more here,
ZH: 如果你在这里买入，然后在这里加仓
09:11 - 09:15
EN: your risk is very big and the reward is very small.
ZH: 你的风险非常大，利润非常小
09:15 - 09:21
EN: So you have a terrible risk/reward trade, but a 10 bar bull Micro Channel
ZH: 所以这笔交易的盈亏比非常糟糕， 然而，背景是连续上涨10根K线的上涨微通道
09:21 - 09:25
EN: - you have a very high probability of at least avoiding a loss.
ZH: 你有非常高的概率至少不会亏钱
09:25 - 09:26
EN: And that’s always the case.
ZH: 事情总是这么的矛盾
09:27 - 09:31
EN: Whenever you have bad risk/reward, you’re going to have high probability.
ZH: 如果盈亏比很好，胜率就会比较低
09:31 - 09:34
EN: Whenever you have high probability, you’re going to have bad risk/reward.
ZH: 如果胜率很高，那么盈亏比就会变差
09:37 - 09:41
EN: Your initial risk is eight times greater than your reward.
ZH: 你的初始风险是利润的8倍
09:41 - 09:45
EN: You can only make money on it if you manage your trade really well,
ZH: 只有非常好地管理交易，你才能够赚钱
09:45 - 09:49
EN: and that’s why most traders should be really careful about that.
ZH: 这就是为什么大多数交易者不应该这么做
09:49 - 09:52
EN: And as far as scaling in, only experts should do that.
ZH: 只有职业的交易员才可以加仓
09:52 - 09:55
EN: The main reason why they scale in?
ZH: 他们加仓的主要原因是什么？
09:55 - 09:59
EN: The main reason they scale in is to increase probability,
ZH: 主要原因是为了增加胜率
09:59 - 10:02
EN: and they know they pay for it by increasing risk.
ZH: 他们也知道，提高胜率的代价是盈亏比变差
10:03 - 10:06
EN: Now they have a bigger position and the stop is far away.
ZH: 现在他们增加了仓位，而且止损很远
10:09 - 10:14
EN: Experts routinely scale in to improve risk/reward.
ZH: 但职业交易员也会改善盈亏比
10:15 - 10:20
EN: I talked about how much the trader is risking, that if they buy up here
ZH: 之前计算过，如果多头在这里买入，
10:20 - 10:24
EN: and here and they’re trying to get a 1 point scalp on the second entry,
ZH: 然后尝试通过加仓的方法来赚1个点
10:24 - 10:28
EN: their risk is eight times bigger than their reward.
ZH: 他们的初始风险是利润的8倍
10:28 - 10:32
EN: Well, experts can improve that risk/reward.
ZH: 然而，职业交易员可以改善这个盈亏比
10:33 - 10:36
EN: Number one, they rarely will ever let the stop get hit.
ZH: 第一，他们很少会让止损真的被打到
10:36 - 10:40
EN: They’ll get out before, so they’re not really planning to risk eight times.
ZH: 他们可以提前离场，所以实际上他们并不打算承担8倍的风险
10:40 - 10:44
EN: Second, a lot of times, most of the time, they’re not buying at the worst price.
ZH: 第二，很多时候，大多数时候， 他们不会正好买在最高点被套牢
10:44 - 10:46
EN: They’re buying at a better price.
ZH: 他们往往在更好的位置入场
10:47 - 10:51
EN: Also, they can increase their reward by scaling in more,
ZH: 另外，他们可以通过加仓来增加利润
10:51 - 10:56
EN: and sometimes their second or third entry can be larger than their first.
ZH: 有时第2、第3次入场的时候，仓位要大于初始仓位 （注：比如一开始买1手，加仓加2手、3手）
10:56 - 10:59
EN: And finally, they can end up swinging part of their trade
ZH: 还有，一部分仓位可以留着做波段交易
10:59 - 11:03
EN: because this could go up a long, long way – and if it went up a long, long way,
ZH: 因为有时上涨趋势可以持续很久很久—— 在这种情况下
11:03 - 11:09
EN: it would more than compensate for the terrible initial risk/reward ratio.
ZH: 波段交易的大利润就轻松弥补了初始盈亏比的不足
Slide 007
Time: 11:10
Bilingual Transcript
11:12 - 11:14
EN: Now let’s talk about a bear trend.
ZH: 现在我们来讲下降趋势
11:15 - 11:18
EN: We’ve been trading down for 30 bars, 40 bars.
ZH: 已经下跌了30、40根K线
11:18 - 11:20
EN: We got a bear breakout and follow-through.
ZH: 空头突破，有跟随
11:20 - 11:23
EN: Chances are we’re going lower.
ZH: 很可能会进一步下跌
11:23 - 11:28
EN: We broke below the low of the past 30, 40, 50 bars, maybe 60 bars
ZH: 跌破了过去50，甚至60根K线的最低点
11:28 - 11:30
EN: - and we have a bear follow-through bar.
ZH: 而且后续还有阴线跟随
11:30 - 11:33
EN: Chances are we’re going lower.
ZH: 大概率还会再跌一些
11:33 - 11:35
EN: However, we might pull back deeply.
ZH: 然而，也有大幅反弹的风险
11:36 - 11:46
EN: The bears are confident that the reversal up will lead to a second leg down
ZH: 空头很有自信，即使反弹， 只要不超过最近一个重要的高点，就仍然会有第2段下跌
11:41 - 11:46
EN: as long as it does not go above the top of the last major Lower High.
ZH: 空头很有自信，即使反弹， 只要不超过最近一个重要的高点，就仍然会有第2段下跌
11:47 - 11:52
EN: Major Lower High, we have a reasonably strong breakout to a new bear trend low.
ZH: 它是重要的高点，因为后面比较强势地向下跌破， 制造了下降趋势中新的低点
11:53 - 12:02
EN: Any reversal up is probably a minor reversal – in other words,
ZH: 任何上涨都只是小反弹——换句话说， 都只是震荡区间中的上涨，或者是下降趋势中的牛旗
11:58 - 12:02
EN: a bull leg in a Trading Range or a bull leg in a bear flag.
ZH: 任何上涨都只是小反弹——换句话说， 都只是震荡区间中的上涨，或者是下降趋势中的牛旗
12:06 - 12:13
EN: A lot of traders, as I said, some will sell more
ZH: 很多空头会在上方固定的距离， 挂限价卖单加仓做空
12:10 - 12:13
EN: at a fixed interval higher, like a multiple of a scalp.
ZH: 很多空头会在上方固定的距离， 挂限价卖单加仓做空
12:13 - 12:17
EN: So if it’s the Emini, maybe they’ll trade
ZH: 如果这是ES，他们会在上方1或2个点卖出更多
12:15 - 12:17
EN: - they’ll sell more 1 point higher, 2 points higher.
ZH: 如果这是ES，他们会在上方1或2个点卖出更多
12:17 - 12:21
EN: Others will simply say, “Okay, I’ll sell a 50% pullback.”
ZH: 一些空头会在50%反弹的地方挂单加仓
12:21 - 12:25
EN: So the stop is up here, the bottom of the leg is here.
ZH: 止损在这里，下跌的最低点在这里
12:25 - 12:28
EN: Here’s 50% pullback, so they sell initially here
ZH: 50%反弹在这里； 假设有空头一开始在这里入场做空，
12:28 - 12:33
EN: and then they sell more here, stop above the top of the bear leg.
ZH: 然后在这里加仓，止损放在起跌点的上方
12:34 - 12:37
EN: And their intention is to get out, at a minimum,
ZH: 他们的最低目标是，
12:37 - 12:40
EN: breakeven on their first entry and then with a profit on their second.
ZH: 初始仓位打平，加仓的部分赚钱
12:46 - 12:52
EN: This 50% pullback is 5 ticks above the first, not 4 ticks, so not 1 point.
ZH: 这里50%反弹距离初始入场价格有5 ticks， 而ES的1个点是4 ticks，所以大于1个点
12:51 - 12:52
EN: It’s 5 ticks.
ZH: 这里50%反弹距离初始入场价格有5 ticks， 而ES的1个点是4 ticks，所以大于1个点
12:52 - 12:58
EN: If they get out here, they get 5 ticks profit there and then breakeven here.
ZH: 如果他们在这里全部离场，加仓的部分可以赚5 ticks， 而初始仓位是打平的
12:59 - 13:05
EN: Here, they’re selling above this bear bar, betting that it’s a bad reversal.
ZH: 第1次入场，空头在阴线的最高点上方挂限价卖单， 押注反弹失败
13:05 - 13:07
EN: Chances are we’ll get a second leg down.
ZH: 大概率会有第2段下跌
13:08 - 13:09
EN: I use that as an example.
ZH: 这只是列举一种情况
13:09 - 13:11
EN: They could’ve sold the close of this bar
ZH: 也有空头在这根K线的收盘卖出，
13:11 - 13:13
EN: or they could’ve sold the close of that bar.
ZH: 或者在那根K线的收盘卖出
13:13 - 13:15
EN: They could’ve sold this bar as it’s forming.
ZH: 他们可以在这根K线下跌的过程中市价卖出
13:15 - 13:18
EN: I’m just using this as an example of another way
ZH: 这里我只是以这个入场点为例，
13:18 - 13:21
EN: that traders often enter in a bear trend.
ZH: 这也是下降趋势中空头常用的入场方式
13:26 - 13:28
EN: Actual risk was less than the initial risk.
ZH: 实际风险小于初始风险
13:28 - 13:32
EN: The initial risk was above the top of this bear leg.
ZH: 初始风险在起跌点的上方
13:32 - 13:34
EN: Their actual risk was here.
ZH: 实际风险在这里
13:34 - 13:39
EN: Actual risk was a total of 15 ticks, and that’s a total of 10 ticks
ZH: 实际风险总共是15 ticks， 其中初始仓位的风险是10 ticks
13:39 - 13:42
EN: on their first entry and then 5 ticks on their second entry.
ZH: 加仓部分的风险是5个ticks
13:44 - 13:49
EN: A lot of bears would swing, but they’ll look at this and say, “I don’t know.
ZH: 很多空头打算做波段交易， 但看到这个之后，变得不确定
13:49 - 13:52
EN: This is a pretty big reversal up.
ZH: 反弹的幅度很大
13:52 - 13:54
EN: Maybe the premise of a bear trend is not so good.
ZH: 也许下降趋势的前提不再完好
13:54 - 13:56
EN: Maybe it’s just going to be a Trading Range,”
ZH: 也许它只是一个震荡区间
13:56 - 14:03
EN: so they’ll be sufficiently disappointed by the number of bars
ZH: 他们对反弹的幅度、持续的时间、 以及这个窄上涨通道感到失望
14:01 - 14:07
EN: and the tightness of this bull channel to just get out breakeven
ZH: 他们对反弹的幅度、持续的时间、 以及这个窄上涨通道感到失望 所以退而求其次——初始仓位打平，加仓的部分赚钱
14:05 - 14:07
EN: on their first entry and profit on their second.
ZH: 所以退而求其次——初始仓位打平，加仓的部分赚钱
Slide 008
Time: 14:10
Bilingual Transcript
14:11 - 14:14
EN: I want to talk about another strategy.
ZH: 接下来我想讲另一种策略
14:14 - 14:20
EN: This time, instead of entering with two parts, I’m going to talk
ZH: 不再是把仓位分成两份，而是分成4份
14:18 - 14:20
EN: about entering with four parts,
ZH: 不再是把仓位分成两份，而是分成4份
14:20 - 14:26
EN: and I’ll use a 400,000 unit Forex position as an example.
ZH: 我会用40万手外汇的仓位作为案例
Slide 009
Time: 14:26
Bilingual Transcript
14:29 - 14:33
EN: Same chart as we had, and let’s say it’s a Forex chart this time,
ZH: 和之前的K线图一样，假设这次它是某个货币对
14:33 - 14:40
EN: and let’s say you’re willing to buy a total
ZH: 假设你愿意买入的总仓位是40万手，而止损很远
14:35 - 14:40
EN: of 400,000 units, and your stop is far away.
ZH: 假设你愿意买入的总仓位是40万手，而止损很远
14:40 - 14:42
EN: Instead of buying 400,000 units here,
ZH: 不是直接在这里买40万手，
14:42 - 14:46
EN: you just buy one-quarter of that, 100,000 units.
ZH: 而是先买4分之1，也就是10万手
14:46 - 14:48
EN: Again, same problem.
ZH: 同样的问题
14:48 - 14:53
EN: Very Tight Bull Channel, consecutive Buy Climaxes
ZH: 窄上涨通道，连续的抢购高潮——这里，这里，这里，这里和这里
14:50 - 14:53
EN: - here, here, here, here, and here.
ZH: 窄上涨通道，连续的抢购高潮——这里，这里，这里，这里和这里
14:55 - 14:58
EN: Probably will turn into a Trading Range soon,
ZH: 可能很快会进入震荡区间
14:58 - 15:03
EN: but strong enough move up that the first reversal down will probably be minor
ZH: 但上涨动能足够强，第1次下跌大概率只是小回调
15:03 - 15:05
EN: and lead to a Trading Range instead of a bear trend.
ZH: 市场最多进入震荡区间，而不是下降趋势
15:05 - 15:13
EN: The bears will probably need a Lower High Major Trend Reversal
ZH: 空头需要一个大反转的结构，比如高点降低的大反转， 然后才更有可能制造下跌的波段
15:09 - 15:13
EN: or some kind of Major Trend Reversal before they can get a swing down.
ZH: 空头需要一个大反转的结构，比如高点降低的大反转， 然后才更有可能制造下跌的波段
15:16 - 15:18
EN: You could’ve bought anywhere in here.
ZH: 你可以在这里的任何地方买入
15:18 - 15:21
EN: Maybe you bought and took a profit, bought and took a profit, bought, took profit.
ZH: 你可以买入、止盈；买入、止盈；买入、止盈
15:21 - 15:25
EN: You bought here and then it did this, and you said, “Well, I don’t care.
ZH: 你在这里买入，结果遇到了回调，你说： “随便，哥（姐）不在乎；
15:25 - 15:28
EN: It’s probably a minor reversal and we’ll probably get a Trading Range,
ZH: 这大概率只是小回调，最多变成震荡区间
15:28 - 15:31
EN: and I’ll probably be able to either make money or avoid a loss.
ZH: 我大概率还是可以赚钱，至少不会亏钱
15:31 - 15:34
EN: But I do know one thing: no matter where I bought,
ZH: 我只知道一件事：无论我在哪里买入
15:34 - 15:43
EN: even if I bought the absolute worst price, my stop is below the bottom
ZH: 就算正好买在了最高点， 我的止损仍然应该放在起涨点的下方，它是重要的低点
15:39 - 15:43
EN: of the bull leg,” the bottom of this major Higher Low.
ZH: 就算正好买在了最高点， 我的止损仍然应该放在起涨点的下方，它是重要的低点
15:43 - 15:47
EN: If the market falls below this,
ZH: 如果这个低点被跌破，那么上涨趋势的前提就不再成立。”
15:45 - 15:47
EN: then the premise of a bull trend is no longer valid.
ZH: 如果这个低点被跌破，那么上涨趋势的前提就不再成立。”
15:47 - 15:51
EN: You can see later in the day what happened when it fell below it.
ZH: 可以看到当天晚些时候，当这个低点被跌破时，
15:51 - 15:55
EN: The bulls gave up and the bears sold the rally for a second leg down.
ZH: 多头放弃了，而空头在反弹的时候继续做空， 制造了第2段下跌
16:00 - 16:03
EN: This strategy involves four parts.
ZH: 这个策略把仓位分成4等分
16:03 - 16:09
EN: So you buy one part here, 100,000 units – let’s say the euro versus the dollar
ZH: 你在这里买入10万手——假设这是欧元兑美元
16:09 - 16:15
EN: - and you might want to place a limit order to buy 100,000 more 10 pips lower.
ZH: 然后你在下方10 pips加仓10万手
16:15 - 16:17
EN: 10 pips, the minimum scalp size.
ZH: 因为10 pips是外汇交易中最小的剥头皮目标
16:18 - 16:21
EN: And then I said four parts, but I did not say four entries.
ZH: 我讲的是把仓位4等分，但并不是4次入场
16:22 - 16:35
EN: Let’s say you are willing to buy an additional 200,000 units – in other words,
ZH: 如果价格再下跌10 pips， 下一次加仓你打算买入20万手——也就是把仓位翻倍； 这样讲能明白吗？
16:28 - 16:35
EN: a double size position – if it falls to a second scalp size down.
ZH: 下一次加仓你打算买入20万手——也就是把仓位翻倍； 这样讲能明白吗？
16:34 - 16:35
EN: Okay?
ZH: 下一次加仓你打算买入20万手——也就是把仓位翻倍； 这样讲能明白吗？
16:35 - 16:38
EN: So you buy this 10 pips below that, and then this,
ZH: 你在初始入场点下方10 pips第1次加仓
16:38 - 16:40
EN: you’re looking to buy above a bull bar.
ZH: 然后你打算在一根阳线的上方再次加仓
16:40 - 16:41
EN: Reversal up here.
ZH: 在这个紫色框框
16:41 - 16:45
EN: This is actually 18 pips below the first entry,
ZH: 它距离初始入场点18个pips
16:45 - 16:48
EN: not two times the scalp size but close enough.
ZH: 不是20个pips，但也足够接近
16:49 - 16:54
EN: Ideally you’d rather have this be three or four times the minimum scalp,
ZH: 理想情况下，你更希望这个距离是剥头皮目标的3~4倍
16:54 - 16:59
EN: so you’d rather have it be 30 pips below the green entry, maybe 40 pips below.
ZH: 也就是说，最好它在绿色框框下方30或者40 pips
16:59 - 17:05
EN: 20 pips is pretty much the minimum that you’d want for a third entry like that.
ZH: 20 pips几乎是第2次加仓的最小间隔 （总共的第3次入场）
17:07 - 17:12
EN: Probably sufficiently disappointed by this so that you’ll be able
ZH: 多头对这个回调感到很失望
Slide 010
Time: 17:10
Bilingual Transcript
17:12 - 17:16
EN: to get out around your first entry, because after you see this many bars
ZH: 所以在初始入场价格全部离场
17:16 - 17:20
EN: sideways to down, you’re probably concluding that the market is now
ZH: 因为横盘、下跌了这么长时间，
17:20 - 17:22
EN: in a Trading Range instead of a bull trend.
ZH: 多头认为现在市场处于震荡区间，而不是上涨趋势
17:22 - 17:26
EN: If it’s a Trading Range and it gets high, back to the original close,
ZH: 如果真的是震荡区间， 那么在重新测试前期高点的时候，是很好的离场机会
17:26 - 17:28
EN: it’s probably not going to go much higher.
ZH: 因为它大概率不会再涨多少了
17:28 - 17:34
EN: So you buy 100,000 units here, 100,000 units here, and then 200,000 units here
ZH: 所以，你在这里买入10万手，在这里加仓10万手， 在这里加仓20万手
17:34 - 17:38
EN: with a plan to get out around your original entry, that green box.
ZH: 计划在初始入场价格，也就是绿色框框的地方全部离场
17:43 - 17:47
EN: So you make zero pips on your first entry, 10 pips lower here,
ZH: 那么初始仓位打平，
17:47 - 17:52
EN: so you make 10 pips on that entry, and you make 18 pips on this entry,
ZH: 第1次加仓的部分赚10 pips， 第2次加仓的部分赚18 pips
17:52 - 18:00
EN: but it’s a double size position, so you made 36 pips on your third entry.
ZH: 但由于第2次加仓是20万手，所以可以看作赚了36 pips
18:03 - 18:07
EN: Total risk – 100,000 units to here, 100,000 units to here,
ZH: 总的风险——10万手到这里，10万手到这里
18:07 - 18:17
EN: 200,000 units to here – total risk is 196 pips, and you made 46 pips.
ZH: 20万手到这里——总风险是196 ticks， 而你最终赚了46 pips（10+18*2=46）
18:18 - 18:22
EN: But remember, you’re not planning on letting your stop get hit.
ZH: 看似盈亏比很差，但实际上你并不会让止损真的被打掉
Slide 011
Time: 18:20
Bilingual Transcript
18:22 - 18:23
EN: You would get out before your stop would get hit.
ZH: 你总是可以提前离场
18:23 - 18:26
EN: Also, you’re probably not going to enter
ZH: 另外，大部分时间，你不会像案例这样，
18:26 - 18:29
EN: on the exact worst price like in the example that I just gave.
ZH: 正好买在最高点被套牢
18:30 - 18:32
EN: Let me talk about a bear example,
ZH: 再来讲做空的案例
18:32 - 18:37
EN: and you can divide your entire position into four parts.
ZH: 你可以把总仓位4等分
18:37 - 18:45
EN: Here, we have a Trading Range and the bulls know the market should not fall
ZH: 这里，有一个震荡区间， 多头知道市场不应该跌破这个重要的低点
18:42 - 18:48
EN: below the bottom of this major Higher Low – and if it does,
ZH: 这里，有一个震荡区间， 多头知道市场不应该跌破这个重要的低点 如果真的跌破了，那么上涨趋势的前提就不再成立
18:46 - 18:48
EN: then the premise of a bull trend is no longer valid.
ZH: 如果真的跌破了，那么上涨趋势的前提就不再成立
18:48 - 18:52
EN: You have to then be thinking that maybe we’re in a Trading Range or a bear trend.
ZH: 因此必须考虑市场是否处于震荡区间，或者下降趋势
18:52 - 18:55
EN: Well, clearly we’re already in a Trading Range,
ZH: 很明显，早就处于震荡区间了
18:55 - 18:57
EN: and here we did get a bear breakout and follow-through.
ZH: 而现在又有大阴线跌破，后面还有跟随
18:57 - 19:00
EN: Chances are we’ll get at least a little bit more down.
ZH: 很可能还会再下跌一些
19:01 - 19:05
EN: So with that in mind, let’s say you sold above the high of this bear bar,
ZH: 考虑到这一点，假设你在这根阴线的高点上方卖出做空
19:05 - 19:07
EN: betting against the reversal up,
ZH: 押注反弹失败
19:07 - 19:10
EN: and let’s say you sold another 100,000 units 10 pips higher.
ZH: 然后你在上方10 pips的地方又加仓10万手
19:10 - 19:12
EN: The minimum scalp, 10 pips.
ZH: 外汇剥头皮的最小目标——10 pips
19:12 - 19:18
EN: And then you look for a bear bar and you sell below a bear bar right here.
ZH: 然后等待，等看到阴线，在阴线的下方再次卖出 （注：第2次加仓，第3次卖出）
19:18 - 19:24
EN: And you decide that for your third entry,
ZH: 你决定这一次用双倍的仓位（20万手）
19:21 - 19:24
EN: you’re going to have it be a double size.
ZH: 你决定这一次用双倍的仓位（20万手）
19:24 - 19:28
EN: So this is a quarter of your position, quarter of your position,
ZH: 所以这里4分之1，这里4分之1
19:28 - 19:29
EN: and this is half of your position.
ZH: 这里4分之2，即一半
19:29 - 19:32
EN: So you have a total of four parts, but only three entries.
ZH: 总共把仓位4等分，但是分3次入场
19:35 - 19:43
EN: In general, you want this entry to be at least three times
ZH: 通常来说，你希望这个距离至少隔开3倍剥头皮的大小， 比如在它上方30 pips
19:40 - 19:43
EN: the size of a minimum scalp, like 30 pips above this,
ZH: 通常来说，你希望这个距离至少隔开3倍剥头皮的大小， 比如在它上方30 pips
19:43 - 19:47
EN: but sometimes you don’t get it, and here you got a bear bar.
ZH: 但有时候没有那么大的空间，就出现了不错的阴线
19:48 - 19:55
EN: Selling below a bear bar in a bear flag, especially if you’re scaling in,
ZH: 在熊旗阴线下方卖出，尤其是在加仓的时候， 这样做是很合理的
19:52 - 19:55
EN: that is a reasonable thing to do.
ZH: 在熊旗阴线下方卖出，尤其是在加仓的时候， 这样做是很合理的
Slide 012
Time: 19:55
Bilingual Transcript
19:57 - 20:03
EN: The size of the rally is enough to make you concerned
ZH: 反弹的幅度较大，你对第2段下跌不再那么有信心
20:01 - 20:03
EN: about your premise of a second leg down.
ZH: 反弹的幅度较大，你对第2段下跌不再那么有信心
20:03 - 20:06
EN: It makes you wonder if we’re simply going to go sideways here,
ZH: 你开始思考，市场会不会开始横盘，
20:06 - 20:08
EN: maybe a trending Trading Range day.
ZH: 也许今天是一个震荡趋势日 （注：整体存在趋势，但是由多个震荡区间组成）
20:08 - 20:11
EN: Upper range, brief breakout, and then lower range.
ZH: 上面有一个区间，短暂跌破，在下方又形成区间
20:12 - 20:15
EN: Because you’re probably fairly disappointed by the extent of that rally,
ZH: 因为你对反弹的幅度感到失望
20:15 - 20:20
EN: you might place a limit order to get out breakeven at your first entry.
ZH: 所以你在初始入场价格挂限价买单离场
20:21 - 20:24
EN: So you get out breakeven on your first entry
ZH: 这样的话，初始仓位打平
20:24 - 20:26
EN: and 10 pips profit on your second entry.
ZH: 第1次加仓的部分赚10 pips
20:26 - 20:29
EN: This is 13 pips higher than that,
ZH: 第2次加仓的距离是13 pips
20:29 - 20:32
EN: but it’s a double size position, so you make 26 pips there.
ZH: 但因为是双倍仓位，所以看作是26 pips
20:34 - 20:37
EN: You make a total of 36 pips.
ZH: 总共赚了36 pips（10+13*2=36）
20:39 - 20:45
EN: Total initial risk from this trade to there, plus this to there, plus this,
ZH: 总的初始风险——初始入场点到止损，加上这里到止损，
20:45 - 20:49
EN: a double size position, to there – total risk is 106 pips.
ZH: 再加上双倍仓位到止损——总共是106 pips
20:49 - 20:55
EN: But your actual risk was 7 pips less per trade because we never got to your stop,
ZH: 但实际风险没有那么大，每一个入场点都小了7 pips
20:55 - 20:58
EN: so the actual risk was 1 pip above this,
ZH: 实际风险只是在它的上方1个pip
20:58 - 21:04
EN: and your actual risk was 78 pips and you made 36 pips on the trade.
ZH: 总的实际风险是78 pips，而你在这笔交易中赚了36点
21:06 - 21:08
EN: You don’t always enter at the worst price.
ZH: 你不会每次都做空在最低点
21:08 - 21:10
EN: Here, it does make sense to enter at the worst price.
ZH: 这里，这是一个合理的做空入场点 （碰巧正好是最低点）
21:10 - 21:13
EN: You don’t always scale in three times.
ZH: 而且你并不会每一笔交易都加仓3次
21:13 - 21:17
EN: A lot of times you’ll just sell here and then sell more below a bear bar.
ZH: 很多时候在这里做空之后，只是在阴线下方加仓1次
21:18 - 21:21
EN: Usually the pullbacks are not that deep.
ZH: 通常反弹幅度不会那么大
21:21 - 21:23
EN: Usually the trend reversal down is stronger.
ZH: 通常下降趋势会更加强势
21:23 - 21:28
EN: So this is an example of pretty much a worst case scenario.
ZH: 所以这个案例展示的是最糟糕的情况
21:28 - 21:32
EN: The only thing that could be worse is if your stop got hit.
ZH: 唯一更糟的事情是止损真的被打掉
21:32 - 21:34
EN: Most of the time when you’re scaling in,
ZH: 大多数时候，当你在加仓时，
21:34 - 21:40
EN: you’re not going to be risking 78 pips to make 36 pips.
ZH: 你不会冒着78 pips的风险，结果只赚了36 pips
21:44 - 21:49
EN: I’m just giving you several examples on scaling in trades,
ZH: 这里我只是展示一些加仓交易的案例
Slide 013
Time: 21:45
Bilingual Transcript
21:49 - 21:51
EN: and there are many different ways to do it.
ZH: 实际上有很多不同的加仓方法
21:51 - 21:56
EN: And if you’re an expert trader, you’re very flexible about it.
ZH: 职业交易员在加仓的时候非常灵活
21:56 - 21:59
EN: There’s no fixed, rigid way to do it.
ZH: 并不是每次都很死板地去操作
21:59 - 22:02
EN: “I’m going to sell 10 pips higher, 20 pips higher.” Some traders do that.
ZH: “每过10 pips，20 pips，我就加仓。” 一些交易者会这么固定地做
22:02 - 22:07
EN: Other traders, instead of selling a fixed number of pips higher,
ZH: 另外一些人，并不是按照固定的点数加仓
22:07 - 22:09
EN: they’ll sell a 50% pullback right around here,
ZH: 而是在50%反弹附近，
22:09 - 22:13
EN: or they’ll only sell their second entry below a bear bar,
ZH: 或者在第2做空入场点加仓（注：比如双顶熊旗）
22:13 - 22:15
EN: and that second entry has to be at least
ZH: 并且加仓的位置距离初始入场点
22:15 - 22:17
EN: two or three times bigger than a minimum scalp.
ZH: 至少是2~3倍剥头皮的大小
22:17 - 22:21
EN: All of the ways are good as long as they’re logical
ZH: 只要逻辑合理、数学期望合理，
22:21 - 22:24
EN: and make good sense mathematically.
ZH: 任何方法都是好方法
22:25 - 22:28
EN: Management after you enter – many choices.
ZH: 入场后的管理——有很多选择
22:28 - 22:33
EN: Do I get out breakeven on my entire trade, or do I try to get out breakeven
ZH: 到底是整体打平离场，
22:33 - 22:36
EN: on my bad entry and then with a profit on the other entries?
ZH: 还是一部分打平，一部分赚钱离场？
22:36 - 22:38
EN: Do I swing part or all of the position?
ZH: 是否留下一部分仓位做波段交易？
22:38 - 22:46
EN: And because of all those decisions, it’s really easy to make a lot of mistakes,
ZH: 因为有这么多决定要做，所以很容易犯错
22:46 - 22:52
EN: and therefore when you’re trading like this, if you are going to be scaling in
ZH: 如果你想这样交易——尤其是想加仓两次、三次
22:50 - 23:00
EN: - especially scaling in a second time and a third time – you know,
ZH: 如果你想这样交易——尤其是想加仓两次、三次 要等到有足够的经验之后才能这么做； 已经稳定盈利了之后，再去这么做
22:54 - 23:00
EN: you should only be doing it if you’re an experienced trader,
ZH: 要等到有足够的经验之后才能这么做； 已经稳定盈利了之后，再去这么做
22:57 - 23:00
EN: a profitable, consistently profitable trader.
ZH: 要等到有足够的经验之后才能这么做； 已经稳定盈利了之后，再去这么做
23:00 - 23:03
EN: You also have the issue of emotions.
ZH: 你还会面临情绪的问题
23:04 - 23:06
EN: If you sell here and you’re starting out and then you see
ZH: 如果你刚开始交易，在这里开仓做空
23:06 - 23:09
EN: 4 or 5, 6 bars going up against you,
ZH: 然后看到4，5，6根K线上涨，打破了你的预期
23:09 - 23:13
EN: are you really willing to sell more here and sell more there?
ZH: 你真的愿意在这里卖出更多，在那里卖出更多吗？
23:13 - 23:18
EN: Probably difficult to do, and you probably are not trading small enough
ZH: 可能很难做到，而且你控制不好仓位，
23:18 - 23:22
EN: because your account size will not allow you to trade a small enough position.
ZH: 因为你的账户已经很小了，没办法再拆分成更小的仓位
23:23 - 23:33
EN: There are just structural problems that a trader has as a beginner
ZH: 新手会遇到各种各样的问题， 导致他们无法正确地管理交易
23:28 - 23:33
EN: that prevents him from managing these trades well.
ZH: 新手会遇到各种各样的问题， 导致他们无法正确地管理交易
23:33 - 23:35
EN: So they should not be taking trades like this.
ZH: 所以他们不应该用这种方法交易
23:38 - 23:42
EN: I made the point you have to have a big enough account
ZH: 有一点很重要——想要用宽止损并且加仓的方法，
Slide 014
Time: 23:40
Bilingual Transcript
23:42 - 23:44
EN: to allow you to trade this properly.
ZH: 你的账户必须足够大
23:45 - 23:49
EN: A really important problem here is position size,
ZH: 因为仓位大小是一个非常重要的问题
23:49 - 23:52
EN: and I think a lot of beginners think they can scale in
ZH: 很多新手以为他们可以加仓
23:52 - 23:56
EN: and manage their trade correctly, but they really have no intention
ZH: 以为他们能够正确地管理， 但实际上心里并没有做好准备
23:56 - 24:00
EN: of allowing the market to get anywhere near their stop.
ZH: 没想到价格真的会接近他们的止损
24:00 - 24:03
EN: Maybe sells here and sells more here, and then when it goes here,
ZH: 比如，新手在这里做空，然后在这里加仓； 当价格涨到这里的时候，
24:03 - 24:07
EN: he takes a loss on both, thinking “Oh my gosh,
ZH: 两笔仓位都在亏钱，他崩溃了：“苍天啊！ 我没有打算冒这么大的风险啊！”
24:05 - 24:07
EN: I really didn’t want to risk that much.”
ZH: 两笔仓位都在亏钱，他崩溃了：“苍天啊！ 我没有打算冒这么大的风险啊！”
24:08 - 24:13
EN: But you only can take this kind of a trade if you can trade small enough.
ZH: 想要用这种方法，你就必须用很小很小的仓位
24:13 - 24:17
EN: Let’s say you can only trade 4 units or 40,000 units.
ZH: 假设你想用4手合约作为初始仓位
24:19 - 24:32
EN: You should only trade 4 units or 40,000 units or 4 contracts or whatever
ZH: 初始4手合约的前提是，你平时可以非常舒服地交易8手合约 （注：把舒适区再减半，才能真的不在乎）
24:24 - 24:32
EN: if you can honestly comfortably trade 8 to 10 units
ZH: 初始4手合约的前提是，你平时可以非常舒服地交易8手合约 （注：把舒适区再减半，才能真的不在乎）
24:28 - 24:32
EN: or 80,000 units or 8 to 10 contracts.
ZH: 初始4手合约的前提是，你平时可以非常舒服地交易8手合约 （注：把舒适区再减半，才能真的不在乎）
24:33 - 24:41
EN: You have to make sure that you’re trading no more than half of a position size
ZH: 想要用宽止损并加仓，就必须把平时不在乎的仓位再减半
24:38 - 24:41
EN: that is normally comfortable for you.
ZH: 想要用宽止损并加仓，就必须把平时不在乎的仓位再减半
24:43 - 24:48
EN: The single biggest loss with this is beginners are not trading small enough,
ZH: 新手最大的亏损原因就是，他们的仓位没有足够小
24:48 - 24:51
EN: and then when the market gets near their stop, they exit.
ZH: 所以当市场接近止损的时候， 承受不住压力，离场了（注：臭止损）
24:51 - 24:53
EN: All they’re thinking about is risk.
ZH: 此时他们的脑中只有风险
24:53 - 24:56
EN: There are three variables: risk, reward, and probability.
ZH: 然而数学期望有3个变量——风险、利润和概率
24:56 - 25:00
EN: Beginners only think about risk, and they ignore probability
ZH: 新手只想着风险，他们忽视了概率
25:00 - 25:06
EN: and they ignore reward, and they manage trades based entirely on risk
ZH: 忽视了利润，完全基于风险来管理交易 （注：根据盈利或亏损时的心理变化来交易）
25:06 - 25:07
EN: and they end up losing money.
ZH: 最终导致亏钱
25:07 - 25:11
EN: There are three variables, and you always have to be considering all three,
ZH: 有3个变量，你必须把它们全都考虑进去
25:11 - 25:14
EN: and that is really difficult for a beginner.
ZH: 对于新手而言，这是很困难的
Slide 015
Time: 25:15
Bilingual Transcript
25:17 - 25:20
EN: All right, so let’s say we’ve got a bull trend over here
ZH: 比如，在这个上涨趋势中，
25:20 - 25:24
EN: and you’re buying for any reason, and let’s say you happen to buy late,
ZH: 可以在任何地方买入； 假设你的入场比较晚，
25:24 - 25:26
EN: hoping that the swing will just continue up forever.
ZH: 你希望趋势可以一直涨下去
25:27 - 25:30
EN: You know with consecutive Buy Climaxes here, here, here,
ZH: 你知道这里、这里、这里，是连续的抢购高潮
25:30 - 25:33
EN: and now a fourth one, we’re probably not going to go much higher.
ZH: 现在是第4次，所以接下来的涨幅有限
25:33 - 25:41
EN: We might, but you also know that you’re probably not going to lose money
ZH: 但你也知道，只要正确地管理，至少不会亏什么钱
25:38 - 25:41
EN: if you buy here and manage your trade correctly.
ZH: 但你也知道，只要正确地管理，至少不会亏什么钱
25:43 - 25:46
EN: A lot of traders in this situation, if they buy here,
ZH: 在这种情况下，很多交易者，如果他们在这里买入
25:46 - 25:51
EN: they trade small enough to allow themselves to add on, scale in lower.
ZH: 初始仓位足够小，所以可以在低位加仓买入更多
25:54 - 25:57
EN: So let’s say you buy there and then you see this Parabolic Wedge
ZH: 假设你在这里买入，然后看到这是抛物线楔形顶
25:57 - 26:03
EN: or consecutive Buy Climaxes and then this final big bull bar,
ZH: 连续的抢购高潮，体积最大的大阳线， 趋势很可能即将衰竭
26:01 - 26:03
EN: a Buy Climax, end of the trend.
ZH: 连续的抢购高潮，体积最大的大阳线， 趋势很可能即将衰竭
26:04 - 26:07
EN: A lot of scalpers will just get out below that reversal bar.
ZH: 很多剥头皮交易者会直接在它的下方离场
26:08 - 26:12
EN: They know that this is probably going to do this – go sideways
ZH: 因为他们知道接下来大概率会横盘
26:12 - 26:14
EN: - and that the up move is probably over.
ZH: 上涨趋势基本上已经结束了
26:14 - 26:18
EN: So if you’re a scalper and you buy there and you did not scalp out here,
ZH: 所以如果你是一个剥头皮交易者，你在这里买入， 如果没有在上方止盈的话
26:18 - 26:19
EN: you’ve got to get out here.
ZH: 这里必须要离场
26:19 - 26:23
EN: And some swing traders who bought here, when they see this, thinking that
ZH: 对于在这里买入的波段交易者， 当他们看到这个之后，
26:23 - 26:26
EN: - they’ll think that we’ll get a couple legs sideways to down,
ZH: 认为很可能会有几段横盘或下跌，
26:26 - 26:29
EN: so they will get out as well, looking to buy again lower.
ZH: 所以他们也会离场，等待在低位重新买入
26:32 - 26:34
EN: A lot of traders do not get out.
ZH: 很多交易者不会离场
26:34 - 26:42
EN: They say, “Hey, as long as it stays above this stop,
ZH: 他们想：“只要价格维持在重要低点的上方， 这笔交易的前提就仍然成立
26:39 - 26:42
EN: the bottom of this major Higher Low, I’m still good.
ZH: 他们想：“只要价格维持在重要低点的上方， 这笔交易的前提就仍然成立
26:43 - 26:45
EN: I’ll take my buy here and I’ll look to scale in lower
ZH: 在这里买入之后，我可以逢低加仓，
26:45 - 26:48
EN: and see if I can make more money.”
ZH: 看看这样做是否能赚到钱。”
26:49 - 26:54
EN: High 1 and High 2, so some traders, if they buy here, they’ll buy more here.
ZH: 高1和高2，所以多头会在这里加仓
26:55 - 26:57
EN: High 2 bull flag.
ZH: 高2牛旗
26:59 - 27:01
EN: But because the market sold off so much,
ZH: 但是因为回调了这么多
27:01 - 27:06
EN: their premise of a relentless strong bull trend is no longer valid.
ZH: 强上涨趋势的前提已经不再成立
27:06 - 27:10
EN: Now they’re thinking either weak bull trend or Trading Range,
ZH: 现在要么是弱上涨趋势，要么是震荡区间
27:10 - 27:14
EN: and because of that, they’ll try to get out breakeven around the high close,
ZH: 所以他们会尝试在前期最高的收盘价附近离场
27:14 - 27:18
EN: or maybe just simply breakeven at their original entry, which would be over here.
ZH: 或者在初始入场价格离场，也就是在这里
27:19 - 27:25
EN: Bears, bull trend, bear break below the bull trend line, and couple legs up,
ZH: 对于空头而言，上涨趋势，跌破趋势线； 几段小的上涨
27:25 - 27:30
EN: three pushes up, and possibly a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 3次向上推动，可能是高点降低的大反转机会
27:30 - 27:33
EN: And they see that it’s a test of the high close of the day
ZH: 他们看到市场测试了前期最高的收盘价
27:33 - 27:36
EN: and it’s reversing down, so some bears will sell
ZH: 然后就开始反转下跌，所以一些空头会开始做空
27:36 - 27:39
EN: that just like the bulls will take profits there.
ZH: 就像多头会在那里止盈一样
27:42 - 27:45
EN: Whenever bulls think something is good enough to take profits,
ZH: 每当多头认为某个价格是很好的止盈机会，
27:45 - 27:48
EN: there are always bears thinking it’s good enough to sell.
ZH: 就会有空头在那里做空
27:49 - 27:53
EN: They might sell up here with a limit order at that high close
ZH: 空头会在那个收盘价挂限价卖单，
27:53 - 27:56
EN: or with a stop on the way down.
ZH: 或者在反转下跌的时候用突破卖单
28:00 - 28:02
EN: On the way up, we’re rallying strongly.
ZH: 上涨的过程中，动能很强劲
Slide 016
Time: 28:00
Bilingual Transcript
28:02 - 28:05
EN: Buy the close all the way up, and let’s say you buy this close.
ZH: 一路都是“买收盘”的上涨趋势； 假设你在它的收盘买入了
28:06 - 28:07
EN: What do you do?
ZH: 接下来应该怎么办？
28:07 - 28:08
EN: Your stop is down here.
ZH: 你的止损在这里
28:09 - 28:11
EN: You took the final Buy The Close entry.
ZH: 你正好买在最后一根大阳线的收盘
28:11 - 28:15
EN: You did not know that when you took the trade, but you only take that trade
ZH: 尽管在入场的时候，你并不知道它就是最高点，
28:15 - 28:19
EN: if you’re willing to use your stop down here – and a lot of the traders
ZH: 但在这里追涨的前提是，你愿意把止损放在起涨点下方
28:19 - 28:23
EN: who take that trade will only take that trade if they’re willing to scale in more.
ZH: 很多交易者只有在愿意逢低加仓的基础上， 才会这样去追涨
28:23 - 28:27
EN: They look for a bull bar, especially a Micro Double Bottom, a High 2 buy.
ZH: 他们会等待一根阳线，尤其是在小双底，高2牛旗的上方加仓
28:29 - 28:32
EN: So you buy here and you buy the High 2 bull flag,
ZH: 一开始在这里买入，然后在高2牛旗加仓
28:32 - 28:36
EN: and if you’re sufficiently disappointed by the size of that selloff,
ZH: 如果你对回调的深度感到失望
28:36 - 28:38
EN: you don’t try to make a profit.
ZH: 可能就不再把盈利作为目标了
28:38 - 28:40
EN: You don’t try to get out here.
ZH: 不会再尝试在这里离场
28:40 - 28:44
EN: You might instead say, “Eh, this is just too many bars down.”
ZH: 而是认为：“这个回调也太久了吧
28:44 - 28:48
EN: However, I should be able to avoid a loss, and the midpoint of my entry is
ZH: 不过我还是应该能够避免亏损； 我的平均入场价格在这里——
28:48 - 28:51
EN: - here’s my upper entry, here’s my lower entry.
ZH: 第1次的入场价，第2次的入场价
28:51 - 28:59
EN: I’ll try to place a limit order to get out breakeven on the entire position,
ZH: 把限价卖单挂在两者的中点， 这样总体正好就可以打平离场
28:56 - 28:59
EN: which is halfway between the two entries, and you get out there.
ZH: 把限价卖单挂在两者的中点， 这样总体正好就可以打平离场
29:02 - 29:06
EN: Sufficiently disappointed that you think big up, big down, big confusion
ZH: 非常失望，你认为这是大涨，大跌，大的困惑
29:06 - 29:08
EN: - Trading Range more likely than a bull trend.
ZH: ——更有可能是震荡区间，而不是上涨趋势
29:08 - 29:13
EN: Trading Range, you buy low and you get out in the middle or near the top.
ZH: 如果是震荡区间，你应该在低位买入， 然后在中间或上沿附近离场
29:17 - 29:20
EN: In this video I gave two different examples.
ZH: 这节课，我讲解了两种不同的案例
Slide 017
Time: 29:20
Bilingual Transcript
29:20 - 29:25
EN: The first was an Emini example in which a trader trades 2 contracts.
ZH: 第1个是ES的例子，总仓位是两手合约
29:25 - 29:30
EN: He enters with 1 contract and then, if the trade goes against him,
ZH: 初始仓位是1手合约，如果入场之后市场反向移动，
29:30 - 29:32
EN: he enters again with 1 contract.
ZH: 那就加仓1手合约
29:32 - 29:36
EN: His total position then is 2 contracts.
ZH: 所以总的仓位是两手
29:37 - 29:42
EN: In the second strategy, I used an example of a Forex trade in which a trader
ZH: 在第2个策略中，我以外汇交易为例，
29:42 - 29:48
EN: is comfortable trading 400,000 units, and he divides his position into four parts.
ZH: 如果一个交易者可以轻松地交易40万手， 那么他可以把仓位4等分
29:48 - 29:53
EN: He enters the market with one part (100,000 units)
ZH: 初始仓位是4分之1，即10万手
29:53 - 29:59
EN: and then as the market goes against him, he enters again
ZH: 如果市场反向运行，就加仓10万手
29:56 - 30:07
EN: with another 100,000 units, and if the market further goes against him,
ZH: 如果市场反向运行，就加仓10万手 如果市场继续反向运行，他就第2次加仓，用20万手
30:02 - 30:07
EN: he takes a third position, but this time with 200,000 units
ZH: 如果市场继续反向运行，他就第2次加仓，用20万手
30:07 - 30:10
EN: for a total position size of 400,000 units.
ZH: 总仓位的大小来到40万手
30:10 - 30:12
EN: And I talk about how to manage the trade.
ZH: 我也讲了如何正确地管理一笔交易
30:16 - 30:17
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
30:17 - 30:19
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
30:19 - 30:23
EN: This is the third of three videos on scaling into trades.
ZH: 加仓的3节课，到这里就全部讲完了