al-brooks-course
28 - Rounded Tops and Bottoms
Raw transcript and slide notes for 28 - Rounded Tops and Bottoms.
Overview
- Slides: 13
- Transcript segments: 368
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:06
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:06 - 00:10
EN: This video is about Rounded Tops and Bottoms.
ZH: 这节课我们来讲圆弧顶和圆弧底
Slide 001
Time: 00:12
Bilingual Transcript
00:14 - 00:19
EN: You usually do not hear traders talking about Rounded Tops and Bottoms,
ZH: 通常你不会听到圆弧顶和圆弧底
00:19 - 00:25
EN: and that’s because they are almost always something else,
ZH: 因为交易者总是用其它的词去描述它们
00:22 - 00:25
EN: and traders prefer to use the other terms.
ZH: 因为交易者总是用其它的词去描述它们
Slide 002
Time: 00:26
Bilingual Transcript
00:28 - 00:32
EN: Most reversal patterns involve Trading Ranges,
ZH: 大多数反转结构都涉及震荡区间，
00:32 - 00:36
EN: and a Rounded Top or a Rounded Bottom is a Trading Range.
ZH: 而圆弧顶或圆弧底也是一种震荡区间
00:39 - 00:41
EN: The name is not important.
ZH: 名称并不重要
Slide 003
Time: 00:40
Bilingual Transcript
00:41 - 00:44
EN: Here we have a bull trend and the market entered a Trading Range.
ZH: 上涨趋势，然后进入震荡区间
00:45 - 00:49
EN: 50% chance you’ll get trend resumption up,
ZH: 50%的概率会继续上涨
00:49 - 00:52
EN: 50% chance you’ll get trend reversal down.
ZH: 50%的概率会反转下跌
00:53 - 00:56
EN: Some traders will call this a Rounded Top.
ZH: 一些交易者会说它是圆弧顶
00:56 - 00:59
EN: In the old days, traders would call it distribution.
ZH: 过去，交易者会说它是派发 （注：100年前的威科夫Wyckoff，称之为派发区间）
01:03 - 01:11
EN: I rarely use the term “Rounded Top.” Instead,
ZH: 我很少使用“圆弧顶”这个词 而是会这样看：上涨趋势，通道被跌破
01:06 - 01:11
EN: I would look at this as a bull trend, a bear break below the channel,
ZH: 而是会这样看：上涨趋势，通道被跌破
01:11 - 01:14
EN: and an attempt at a Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 然后尝试制造高点降低的大反转
01:14 - 01:18
EN: Or I could call it a Triangle – three pushes up, one, two, three,
ZH: 或者我可以说它是三角形， 3次向上的推动——1，2，3
01:18 - 01:21
EN: with reversals down, so it’s a Triangle.
ZH: 每次上涨后回调，所以是三角形
01:23 - 01:25
EN: Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 高点降低的大反转
01:29 - 01:31
EN: Whenever you have a bull trend and then a Trading Range,
ZH: 只要上涨趋势进入震荡区间，
Slide 004
Time: 01:30
Bilingual Transcript
01:31 - 01:36
EN: the Trading Range almost always has some type of Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 这个震荡区间中一定有某种大反转的结构
01:36 - 01:38
EN: Here we have a Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 这里是高点降低的大反转
01:43 - 01:46
EN: We have a reversal down, reversal down, reversal down.
ZH: 下跌，下跌，下跌
01:47 - 01:49
EN: That’s three reversals down.
ZH: 3次下跌
01:49 - 01:51
EN: The pattern is sideways.
ZH: 整个结构是横向的
01:51 - 01:53
EN: I would call it a Triangle.
ZH: 所以我把它看作三角形
01:53 - 01:57
EN: The lines are convergent, so I definitely would call it a Triangle.
ZH: 而且线条收敛，所以我肯定说它是三角形
01:57 - 01:59
EN: But again, it doesn’t matter.
ZH: 但还是那句话，叫什么不重要
01:59 - 02:03
EN: What matters is we have a bull trend and then a pullback.
ZH: 重要的是有一个上涨趋势，然后回调
02:03 - 02:06
EN: The pullback grew to 20 or more bars.
ZH: 回调持续了20根或更多的K线
02:06 - 02:12
EN: The probability that the market will resume up is the same
ZH: 市场继续上涨的概率和反转下跌的概率变得相等
02:09 - 02:12
EN: as the probability that it will reverse down.
ZH: 市场继续上涨的概率和反转下跌的概率变得相等
02:12 - 02:15
EN: And there are different patterns within Trading Ranges.
ZH: 在震荡区间内可以找到各种结构
02:15 - 02:22
EN: You can call this a Head and Shoulders bear flag – left shoulder,
ZH: 你可以说它是头肩形的熊旗——左肩，头，右肩； 或者三角形，或者双底牛旗，等等
02:18 - 02:22
EN: head, right shoulder – a Triangle, a Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 你可以说它是头肩形的熊旗——左肩，头，右肩； 或者三角形，或者双底牛旗，等等
02:22 - 02:24
EN: It doesn’t matter what you call it.
ZH: 你叫它什么并不重要
02:24 - 02:31
EN: All that matters is that you have to understand the market
ZH: 重要的是你必须理解，市场这样做（震荡很久） 是因为多头和空头势均力敌，
02:28 - 02:31
EN: is doing this because the bulls and bears are balanced,
ZH: 重要的是你必须理解，市场这样做（震荡很久） 是因为多头和空头势均力敌，
02:31 - 02:35
EN: and one side will win, and the other side will lose.
ZH: 最终一方会获胜，另一方会失败
02:35 - 02:36
EN: 50/50 chance.
ZH: 概率是50对50
02:41 - 02:44
EN: Here we got a trend reversal.
ZH: 最后市场反转大跌
02:44 - 02:48
EN: Traders will look back and say “Oh, look, that was a Rounded Top.”
ZH: 交易者会回过头来说： “你看，那是一个圆弧顶。”
02:48 - 02:50
EN: It doesn’t matter if it’s a little bit rounded.
ZH: 它真的圆吗？不重要
02:50 - 02:54
EN: To me, it’s a Trading Range after a bull trend.
ZH: 在我看来，这是上涨趋势中的一个震荡区间
02:54 - 02:56
EN: It doesn’t matter what I call it;
ZH: 我叫它什么并不重要，
02:56 - 02:59
EN: it just matters that there are ways to trade it.
ZH: 重要的是怎么交易——
02:59 - 03:02
EN: Sell the Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 高点降低的大反转，做空
03:02 - 03:04
EN: Sell a Head and Shoulders Top bear flag.
ZH: 头肩顶熊旗，做空
03:04 - 03:08
EN: We have a bear breakout, a pullback to a small Double Top – sell here.
ZH: 空头突破，回调形成小双顶——在这里卖出做空
03:08 - 03:10
EN: Or wait to sell closes.
ZH: 或者在强势阴线的收盘做空
03:15 - 03:22
EN: I talk more about trend resumption and trend reversal and patterns
ZH: 震荡之后趋势到底会延续，还是反转？ 在震荡区间的视频中，我会更加详细地讲解
03:19 - 03:22
EN: within Trading Ranges in the video on Trading Ranges.
ZH: 震荡之后趋势到底会延续，还是反转？ 在震荡区间的视频中，我会更加详细地讲解
03:25 - 03:31
EN: Is this a Rounded Bottom? We have a strong selloff,
ZH: 这是一个圆弧底吗？ 大跌下来，然后反弹，看作是熊旗
Slide 005
Time: 03:25
Bilingual Transcript
03:29 - 03:31
EN: and we have a pullback, a bear flag.
ZH: 这是一个圆弧底吗？ 大跌下来，然后反弹，看作是熊旗
03:31 - 03:36
EN: Chances are the market’s going to continue down, but the pullback keeps growing.
ZH: 大概率会继续下跌，但是反弹一直在持续
03:36 - 03:38
EN: 5 bars, 10 bars.
ZH: 5根K线，10根K线
03:38 - 03:41
EN: At some point, it’s no longer a pullback in a bear trend.
ZH: 到某一时刻，这已经不再是下降趋势中的反弹
03:41 - 03:43
EN: It’s a bull trend.
ZH: 已经变成上涨趋势了
03:43 - 03:45
EN: It’s a very Tight Bull Channel.
ZH: 这是一个非常窄的上涨通道
03:45 - 03:48
EN: This is a breakout on a higher timeframe chart.
ZH: 在更高时间周期上它是突破
03:48 - 03:51
EN: Big down, big up, big confusion.
ZH: 大跌，大涨，造成大的困惑
03:51 - 03:55
EN: Probably sideways, but it could be a reversal.
ZH: 很可能会横盘，但也可能反转
03:55 - 03:58
EN: This is a type of Rounded Bottom.
ZH: 这是圆弧底的一种
03:58 - 04:03
EN: You have a strong bear trend and then you have
ZH: 强下降趋势，然后出现了很多有震荡特征的K线
04:00 - 04:03
EN: a lot of Trading Range types of bars,
ZH: 强下降趋势，然后出现了很多有震荡特征的K线
04:03 - 04:06
EN: yet instead of going sideways, it’s tilted up.
ZH: 然而市场没有横盘，而是向上倾斜
04:07 - 04:09
EN: To me, this is a type of Rounded Bottom.
ZH: 在我看来，这是一种圆弧底
04:09 - 04:11
EN: Again, I don’t use that term.
ZH: 再次强调，我平时不说“圆弧”这个词
04:11 - 04:13
EN: I would call this an endless pullback.
ZH: 我会说它是无尽的反弹
04:13 - 04:17
EN: We have a bear trend, a pullback to a bear flag,
ZH: 下降趋势，反弹形成熊旗
04:17 - 04:21
EN: yet more and more bars get added to it, and at some point,
ZH: 但反弹持续越来越久，直到某一时刻，
04:21 - 04:24
EN: you have to stop calling it a pullback in a bear trend,
ZH: 你必须承认它不再是下降趋势中的反弹，
04:24 - 04:27
EN: and you have to call it a Small Pullback Bull Trend.
ZH: 而是几乎没有什么回调的上涨趋势
04:36 - 04:38
EN: Here we clearly broke out.
ZH: 这里明显突破了
04:38 - 04:42
EN: We have a breakout here, we have a breakout here, a breakout here.
ZH: 这里有一个突破，这里有突破，这里有突破，但体积都不大
04:41 - 04:49
EN: None of them is all that big, and now we’re starting
ZH: 这里有一个突破，这里有突破，这里有突破，但体积都不大 但现在开始出现连续3，4根阳线，十字星， 第5，第6根阳线
04:44 - 04:49
EN: to get 3, 4 bull bars, doji bar, 5, 6 bull bars.
ZH: 但现在开始出现连续3，4根阳线，十字星， 第5，第6根阳线
04:49 - 04:54
EN: At this point traders conclude that the market is now in a bull trend.
ZH: 此时交易者得出结论，市场现在处于上涨趋势
04:54 - 04:57
EN: It was obviously in a bull trend since the low,
ZH: 尽管从底部开始就一直在上涨，
04:57 - 04:58
EN: but this is where there’s consensus.
ZH: 但这里市场达成了共识
04:58 - 05:01
EN: This is where the bears are giving up.
ZH: 这是空头最终放弃的地方 （注：因为前面的上涨并不强势，所以一些空头不会放弃）
05:02 - 05:04
EN: It’s a bull breakout above a bear flag.
ZH: 市场向上突破了熊旗
05:04 - 05:05
EN: This is a bear flag.
ZH: 空头把它看作是熊旗
05:05 - 05:06
EN: We have a small breakout.
ZH: 小幅向上突破
05:06 - 05:10
EN: This is a Wedge bear flag – one, two, three pushes up
ZH: 空头把它看作楔形熊旗——1，2，3
05:10 - 05:13
EN: - and we have a bull breakout above that,
ZH: 然后又向上突破了
05:13 - 05:17
EN: and then a bigger Wedge bear flag – one, two, three.
ZH: 空头又看到一个更大的熊旗——1，2，3
05:17 - 05:18
EN: We have a bull breakout above that.
ZH: 继续向上突破
05:23 - 05:28
EN: Whenever you have a bear flag like this and the channel is very tight like this,
ZH: 如果你发现“熊旗”是这样一个很窄的上涨通道
05:28 - 05:31
EN: it’s a low probability sell with a stop.
ZH: 用突破卖单做空的胜率并不高
05:32 - 05:35
EN: In general, if you’re looking to sell, it’s better to wait
ZH: 通常来说，如果你想做空的话，
05:35 - 05:38
EN: until there’s a strong bear breakout and then sell lower.
ZH: 最好等待强势的大阴线跌破，再开仓会更好
05:39 - 05:41
EN: This is dangerous for the bears.
ZH: 对空头来说，（这样的反弹）是危险的
05:41 - 05:47
EN: It’s a very Tight Bull Channel, and therefore it’s probably a breakout
ZH: 这是一个非常窄的上涨通道， 因此可能是更高时间周期上的突破
05:45 - 05:47
EN: on a higher timeframe chart.
ZH: 这是一个非常窄的上涨通道， 因此可能是更高时间周期上的突破
05:47 - 05:51
EN: At some point you have to decide the market’s probably Always In Long.
ZH: 在某个时刻，你必须承认市场已经处于单边上涨
05:51 - 05:59
EN: I would begin to suspect it with this bar, and then with these bars.
ZH: 从这里，到这里，一直到这里， 我越来越怀疑下降趋势恢复的可能性
05:55 - 05:59
EN: And then once we start to get here, I would start to think
ZH: 从这里，到这里，一直到这里， 我越来越怀疑下降趋势恢复的可能性
05:59 - 06:02
EN: that the odds are we’re going higher rather than lower.
ZH: 我认为继续上涨的概率会更高
06:06 - 06:08
EN: 4 consecutive bull bars.
ZH: 连续4根阳线
06:08 - 06:12
EN: The bears gave up, and at this point there’s consensus
ZH: 空头放弃了，此时达成共识，
06:12 - 06:15
EN: that this is no longer a bear flag in this bear trend.
ZH: 它不再是这个下降趋势中的熊旗
06:15 - 06:17
EN: It’s now a bull trend.
ZH: 现在是上涨趋势
06:17 - 06:22
EN: Even though we did not get above the top
ZH: 尽管此时还没有突破抛售高潮的起跌点， 但市场已经达成了共识
06:19 - 06:22
EN: of the Sell Climax, this is a consensus.
ZH: 尽管此时还没有突破抛售高潮的起跌点， 但市场已经达成了共识
06:22 - 06:26
EN: This is the bears giving up and the bulls getting confident.
ZH: 空头正在放弃，而多头变得更加自信
06:30 - 06:32
EN: If you want, you can call it a Rounded Bottom.
ZH: 可以把它看作是圆弧底
06:32 - 06:35
EN: A lot of times this is what Rounded Bottoms look like.
ZH: 很多时候圆弧底看起来就是这样的
06:36 - 06:40
EN: Again, it’s basically a bear trend and then confusion
ZH: 再讲一遍，大跌之后，市场变得让人困惑 （注：反弹不强，没有跟随，有震荡区间的特征）
06:40 - 06:46
EN: - a Trading Range here and then this pullback – and then you get a reversal up.
ZH: 有一些震荡，然后反弹——最终反转上涨
06:46 - 06:49
EN: Had this broken to the down side, you would not call it a Rounded Bottom.
ZH: 如果最终是向下突破的，你就不会认为它是圆弧底反转
06:49 - 06:51
EN: You would’ve called it a bear flag.
ZH: 你会觉得，这就是一次反弹而已
06:54 - 06:56
EN: Another endless pullback.
ZH: 另一个无尽的回调的案例
Slide 006
Time: 06:55
Bilingual Transcript
06:56 - 07:00
EN: Very strong bull breakout and then a pullback, so now a channel.
ZH: 非常强的多头突破，然后回调进入通道
07:01 - 07:03
EN: And then we’re starting to pull back.
ZH: 然后市场开始回调
07:04 - 07:06
EN: It’s still a pullback, a bull flag.
ZH: 到这里，仍然是回调，是牛旗
07:06 - 07:07
EN: More likely we’re going higher.
ZH: 更有可能会上涨
07:07 - 07:12
EN: But at some point, after 10 or 20 bars, I start to call it an endless pullback,
ZH: 但到了某个时刻，经过10或20根K线后， 我开始说它是无尽的回调
07:12 - 07:14
EN: and once you have an endless pullback,
ZH: 一旦看到无尽的回调，
07:14 - 07:19
EN: then the probability of trend resumption up falls to about 50%.
ZH: 继续上涨的概率就减小到50%，
07:19 - 07:24
EN: The probability of a bear breakout and reversal down is then 50%.
ZH: 而空头突破、反转下跌的概率增加到50%，
07:24 - 07:27
EN: You can call this a Rounded Top if you want.
ZH: 你可以说它是圆弧顶
07:27 - 07:31
EN: To me, it’s an endless pullback, and clearly at this point
ZH: 但在我看来，这是无尽的回调； 到这里就很明显了——
07:31 - 07:38
EN: - we have a consecutive pair of bars, big bear bars closing
ZH: 连续两根大阴线收在低位，很可能是测量型缺口
07:35 - 07:38
EN: on their lows – probably a Measuring Gap.
ZH: 连续两根大阴线收在低位，很可能是测量型缺口
07:38 - 07:42
EN: A Trading Range, breakout, at least a Measured Move down.
ZH: 震荡区间被跌破，至少会跌到MM目标位
07:42 - 07:47
EN: This is where everyone agreed that it’s no longer a pullback in a bull trend.
ZH: 此时所有人都同意，市场不再是上涨趋势了
07:47 - 07:49
EN: It’s now a bear trend.
ZH: 现在是下降趋势
07:49 - 07:52
EN: Consecutive bear bars, big bear bars closing on their lows.
ZH: 连续的阴线，大的阴线收在最低
07:57 - 07:59
EN: Endless pullback in a Tight Channel.
ZH: 窄下降通道，无尽的回调
07:59 - 08:01
EN: This is a Parabolic Wedge Top.
ZH: 这是一个抛物线楔形顶
08:01 - 08:06
EN: Three or four pushes up – one, pullback, two, pullback, three or four
ZH: 3或4次向上的推动——1，回调；2，回调；3或4
08:06 - 08:11
EN: - and when you get a Parabolic Wedge Top and you start to pull back 5 or 6 bars,
ZH: 当你看到一个抛物线楔形顶，并且市场开始回调， 5~6根K线之后，
08:12 - 08:15
EN: probably the market is going to pull back 10 or more bars
ZH: 很可能回调会持续至少10根K线，
08:15 - 08:19
EN: and decide between trend resumption up or trend reversal down.
ZH: 然后再决定是继续上涨还是反转下跌
08:19 - 08:25
EN: This is common after a Parabolic Wedge Top – one, two, three or three
ZH: 这是抛物线楔形顶之后常见的情况： 1，2，3，或3
08:25 - 08:29
EN: - where you start to get 5 or 10 bars in a Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 市场在窄下降通道中回调了5~10根K线，
08:30 - 08:34
EN: That’s telling you that – at this point,
ZH: 此时我会说左边是抛物线楔形顶，
08:32 - 08:34
EN: I would say this is a Parabolic Wedge Top.
ZH: 此时我会说左边是抛物线楔形顶，
08:34 - 08:37
EN: 50/50 chance we’re going to get a reversal down.
ZH: 并且有50%的概率会反转下跌
08:42 - 08:43
EN: The bulls tried to resume up.
ZH: 多头尝试恢复上涨
08:43 - 08:47
EN: They tried to reverse this bear breakout, but look at the follow-through.
ZH: 想要反转这根大阴线，但是看后面的跟随
08:47 - 08:48
EN: No follow-through.
ZH: 多头没有跟随
08:48 - 08:50
EN: BreakOut Mode here.
ZH: 这里是突破模式（窄震荡区间）
08:50 - 08:52
EN: You can call it a Triangle.
ZH: 你可以说它是三角形
08:52 - 08:54
EN: We went up, we went up, we went up.
ZH: 上涨，上涨，上涨，
08:54 - 08:58
EN: Three pushes up, a horizontal pattern, BreakOut Mode.
ZH: 横向的结构中有3次向上的推动，所以是突破模式
08:58 - 09:00
EN: And this is the important point
ZH: 这里是最关键的：
09:00 - 09:03
EN: - consecutive big bear bars closing near their lows.
ZH: 连续大阴线收在最低
09:03 - 09:06
EN: This is where the market became clearly Always In Short.
ZH: 此时市场正式进入单边下跌
09:13 - 09:16
EN: Bear breakout below what the bulls hoped was a bull flag.
ZH: 多头希望这是牛旗，但是被跌破了
09:17 - 09:20
EN: The bulls gave up, and now it’s a bear trend.
ZH: 于是多头放弃，现在是下降趋势
09:20 - 09:22
EN: It’s no longer a pullback in a bull trend.
ZH: 它不再是上涨趋势中的回调
09:22 - 09:27
EN: Chances are after a breakout that looks like this,
ZH: 强势跌破后，大概率会去到MM目标位
09:25 - 09:27
EN: we’re going to get a Measured Move down.
ZH: 强势跌破后，大概率会去到MM目标位
09:27 - 09:32
EN: This probably will have at least a small second leg down – one, pullback, two.
ZH: 至少会有小的第2段下跌——1，反弹，2
09:32 - 09:38
EN: Probably will lead to a Measured Move down based upon
ZH: 把这个牛旗的高度往下翻一倍作为MM目标位， 跌幅超过了这个MM
09:35 - 09:38
EN: the height of this bull flag – and we got more than that.
ZH: 把这个牛旗的高度往下翻一倍作为MM目标位， 跌幅超过了这个MM
09:43 - 09:46
EN: Pullback, this bull bar.
ZH: 阳线，反弹（没碰到突破点）
09:46 - 09:47
EN: We have a gap.
ZH: 所以有缺口
09:47 - 09:51
EN: The midpoint of the gap is this line, and that’s the Measured Move down.
ZH: 从高点，到缺口的重点，向下作MM目标位
09:52 - 10:00
EN: Typically, I first look at the Measured Move from the top
ZH: 通常，我首先会把高点到突破点，也就是这个或这个低点，往下翻一倍
09:55 - 10:00
EN: of the bull trend to the breakout point, this low or that low.
ZH: 通常，我首先会把高点到突破点，也就是这个或这个低点，往下翻一倍
10:00 - 10:04
EN: Sometimes if it falls below that, I then look at the midpoint of the gap
ZH: 如果这个目标位被跌破，我再看缺口的中点——
10:04 - 10:09
EN: - this attempt to reverse up and these lows.
ZH: 反弹最高点，和突破点之间的缺口
10:09 - 10:13
EN: And we fell to that price level, and you can see there’s some buying.
ZH: 可以看到，市场跌到那里之后，有一些买盘
10:13 - 10:15
EN: There’s also buying around the bottom of the channel.
ZH: 同时，这里也是通道的起点
10:15 - 10:17
EN: Spike, pullback, channel.
ZH: 急速上涨，回调，通道
10:17 - 10:18
EN: There’s usually buying here.
ZH: 这里通常会有买盘
10:18 - 10:20
EN: However, it did not last.
ZH: 然而，没有涨太多
10:20 - 10:24
EN: The bears got a Low 2 bear flag and we went down for another leg.
ZH: 空头把它看作低2熊旗，做空，又继续下跌
10:27 - 10:30
EN: If you want, you can call this a Rounded Top.
ZH: 如果你愿意，你可以说它是圆弧顶
10:30 - 10:31
EN: It doesn’t matter.
ZH: 这根本不重要
10:31 - 10:37
EN: In this particular case, I would call it
ZH: 我会说它是抛物线楔形顶之后的无尽的回调
10:33 - 10:37
EN: a Parabolic Wedge Top in an endless pullback.
ZH: 我会说它是抛物线楔形顶之后的无尽的回调
10:37 - 10:41
EN: And then if you want, a small Double Top bear flag or a Triangle.
ZH: 当然，你也可以说它是小双顶熊旗，或者三角形
10:41 - 10:46
EN: At this point the probability went up significantly
ZH: 跌破之后，极大的概率，市场已经处于下降趋势
10:44 - 10:46
EN: that we were in a bear trend.
ZH: 跌破之后，极大的概率，市场已经处于下降趋势
10:46 - 10:51
EN: At this point, on this close, 60% chance we’re going to have a swing down.
ZH: 在这根阴线收盘的时候，至少60%的概率会有波段下跌
10:55 - 10:56
EN: Bull trend, bear breakout.
ZH: 上涨趋势，空头突破
10:56 - 11:01
EN: A small Double Top Lower High, so Double Top Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 高点降低，双顶，大反转
Slide 007
Time: 11:05
Bilingual Transcript
11:09 - 11:11
EN: A Rounded Top and then a pullback.
ZH: 圆弧顶，反弹
11:11 - 11:15
EN: If you want, you can call it an inverted cup and handle pattern.
ZH: 你也可以说它是反向的“杯柄形态”
11:15 - 11:18
EN: So cup, and then a handle.
ZH: （大的圆弧是）杯子，反弹是杯柄
11:18 - 11:21
EN: To me, it’s a Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 在我看来，这就是高点降低的大反转
11:24 - 11:27
EN: Big cup and then a pullback to a small handle.
ZH: 大的圆弧是杯子，小反弹是杯柄
Slide 008
Time: 11:30
Bilingual Transcript
11:32 - 11:33
EN: Bull trend, Rounded Top.
ZH: 上涨趋势，圆弧顶
11:33 - 11:37
EN: Again, I view this as a bull trend in a Trading Range,
ZH: 再次强调，对我来说这只是上涨趋势后的震荡区间
11:37 - 11:39
EN: and therefore BreakOut Mode.
ZH: 所以是突破模式
11:39 - 11:42
EN: It’s initially a pullback, a pullback, a bull flag.
ZH: 它最初是回调，回调，牛旗
11:42 - 11:44
EN: But once it starts to grow to 20 or more bars,
ZH: 然而一旦持续超过20根K线，
11:44 - 11:47
EN: the probability of trend resumption up falls
ZH: 继续上涨的概率就减小了，
11:47 - 11:50
EN: to about the same as for trend reversal down.
ZH: 变得和反转下跌的概率一样大（50对50）
11:51 - 11:57
EN: It’s a Rounded Top, but instead of the market reversing, we got a bull breakout.
ZH: 圆弧顶，但市场没有反转，而是向上突破
12:01 - 12:03
EN: Pullback that grows 20 or more bars.
ZH: 回调持续了20根或更多的K线
12:03 - 12:09
EN: I stop calling it a pullback, because a pullback
ZH: 我不再说它是回调，因为回调的意思是市场会继续上涨
12:06 - 12:09
EN: implies the market will probably resume up.
ZH: 我不再说它是回调，因为回调的意思是市场会继续上涨
12:09 - 12:13
EN: Once the pullback grows to 20 or more bars, it’s an endless pullback.
ZH: 一旦回调增长到20根或更多的K线， 它就是无尽的回调
12:13 - 12:15
EN: I call it a Trading Range.
ZH: 我称之为震荡区间
12:15 - 12:20
EN: Once I call it a Trading Range, I am saying that the probability
ZH: 一旦我说了“震荡区间”这个词，
12:20 - 12:24
EN: of a bull breakout is about the same as the probability of a bear breakout.
ZH: 就代表多空双方突破的概率都是50%左右
12:31 - 12:36
EN: The bears, if they did short hoping for a Rounded Top or an endless pullback
ZH: 一些空头押注这是圆弧顶，或者说无尽的回调，然后入场做空
12:36 - 12:39
EN: and a reversal down, they’ll buy back their shorts.
ZH: 他们需要在这里回补他们的空头仓位
12:39 - 12:43
EN: We have 3 consecutive bull bars and we’re breaking above that high.
ZH: 连续3根阳线，并突破了那个高点
12:43 - 12:46
EN: This is the start of trend resumption up.
ZH: 趋势开始恢复上涨
12:50 - 12:53
EN: And the bulls will buy as well, either on a stop above that high,
ZH: 多头也会买入，要么在那个高点上方挂突破卖单
12:53 - 12:57
EN: or we have a pullback – they’ll buy on a stop above the high
ZH: 或者在回调时——在回调K线的高点上方买入
12:57 - 12:59
EN: of this pullback bar and they’ll get filled right here.
ZH: 突破买单会在下一根K线成交
12:59 - 13:03
EN: This big bull bar tells you that lots of traders bought.
ZH: 这根大阳线告诉你，有很多交易者在买入
13:03 - 13:07
EN: Bears bought to cover shorts and bulls bought as well,
ZH: 空头买入回补、多头买入做多，
13:07 - 13:09
EN: expecting at least a small second leg up.
ZH: 预期至少会有小的第2段上涨
13:14 - 13:17
EN: Again, you could call this a Rounded Bottom.
ZH: 你可以说它是圆弧底
Slide 009
Time: 13:15
Bilingual Transcript
13:17 - 13:21
EN: You can call it a bull breakout and a smaller Higher Low Major Trend Reversal,
ZH: 可以说它是下降趋势，多头突破，然后低点抬高的大反转
13:21 - 13:25
EN: a Head and Shoulders Bottom – left shoulder, head, right shoulder.
ZH: 或者头肩底——左肩，头，右肩
13:25 - 13:30
EN: You can call this entire bear channel a pullback from this bull reversal.
ZH: 你可以把整个下降通道看作是多头突破之后的回调
13:30 - 13:37
EN: Even though the selloff, the pullback fell below the bottom
ZH: 尽管回调到了前期反转上涨的起涨点下方，
13:34 - 13:37
EN: of this bull reversal, in my mind this is still
ZH: 尽管回调到了前期反转上涨的起涨点下方，
13:37 - 13:40
EN: simply a pullback from this bull reversal.
ZH: 这仍然可能只是一次回调
13:41 - 13:51
EN: Sometimes the pullback falls below the bottom of the bull trend,
ZH: 偶尔，回调会跌破起涨点，但仍然是牛旗 （注：或者看作震荡区间中的假突破）
13:45 - 13:51
EN: and it’s still basically simply a bull flag,
ZH: 偶尔，回调会跌破起涨点，但仍然是牛旗 （注：或者看作震荡区间中的假突破）
13:48 - 13:51
EN: even though it fell below the bottom of the bull trend.
ZH: 偶尔，回调会跌破起涨点，但仍然是牛旗 （注：或者看作震荡区间中的假突破）
13:51 - 13:55
EN: Technically I would call this a bear trend, a bull breakout,
ZH: 我会说它是下降趋势，多头突破，
13:55 - 13:58
EN: and a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 然后低点抬高的大反转
13:58 - 14:01
EN: Maybe a Wedge Higher Low – three pushes down, one, two, three
ZH: 这里也是楔形牛旗，3次下跌——1，2，3
14:01 - 14:04
EN: - even though it’s not a very good Wedge shape.
ZH: 尽管不是特别标准的楔形形状
14:04 - 14:07
EN: Traders would either buy above the high of this bar,
ZH: 交易者会在这根K线的高点上方买入
14:07 - 14:10
EN: or they’d wait for a pair of strong bull bars and then buy here.
ZH: 或者在两根强势阳线的收盘买入
14:10 - 14:14
EN: And now we have an even bigger Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 现在这是一个更大的低点抬高的大反转结构
14:14 - 14:17
EN: Bear trend, very strong bull breakout,
ZH: 下降趋势，非常强的多头突破
14:17 - 14:21
EN: and then several attempts at a Higher Low and then a second leg up.
ZH: 回调形成更高的低点，然后第2段上涨
14:21 - 14:23
EN: Leg 1, pullback, Leg 2.
ZH: 第1段，回调，第2段
14:23 - 14:28
EN: A large Head and Shoulders Bottom – left shoulder, head, right shoulder.
ZH: 也是大的头肩底——左肩，头，右肩
14:31 - 14:32
EN: A Rounded Bottom.
ZH: 也是圆弧底
14:32 - 14:34
EN: Again, I just don’t use that term.
ZH: 再次强调，我不用“圆弧顶/底”这个词
14:34 - 14:38
EN: I use other terms, like Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 我用其它词来描述它，比如“低点抬高的大反转”
14:38 - 14:43
EN: Not a strong buy signal bar, and not a strong break above the bear trend line.
ZH: 做多信号K不算好，对趋势线的突破也并不强势
14:46 - 14:51
EN: However, here we have a pair of very big bull bars closing on their highs.
ZH: 但是接下来连续两根大阳线收在最高
14:51 - 14:54
EN: Probably at this point the market’s Always In Long,
ZH: 此时做多远比做空更好
14:54 - 14:56
EN: and we’re going at least a little bit higher,
ZH: 至少还会再涨一些
14:56 - 14:59
EN: probably at least for a Measured Move up, maybe based upon the height
ZH: 大概率会涨到MM目标位，比如把震荡区间的高度翻一倍
14:59 - 15:05
EN: of the Trading Range, maybe based upon the height of these 2 bars
ZH: 或者把这两根K线的高度——它的开盘到它的收盘—— 往上翻一倍
15:02 - 15:05
EN: - the open of this bar to the close of that bar.
ZH: 或者把这两根K线的高度——它的开盘到它的收盘—— 往上翻一倍
15:08 - 15:10
EN: Very strong breakout.
ZH: 非常强势的突破
15:10 - 15:14
EN: At this point we’re either in a bull trend and we’ll have a second leg up,
ZH: 此时市场要么处于上涨趋势，会有第2段上涨
15:14 - 15:18
EN: or we’re in a Trading Range and have a deep pullback.
ZH: 要么处于震荡区间，这是深度的回调
15:18 - 15:21
EN: In either case, bulls are going to look to buy a selloff,
ZH: 无论哪种情况，多头都会在回调时买入
15:21 - 15:24
EN: expecting either a Trading Range that will test back
ZH: 预期要么是震荡区间，会回测区间的顶部
15:24 - 15:28
EN: to the top of the range, or a second leg up in a bull trend.
ZH: 要么是上涨趋势，会有第2段上涨
15:28 - 15:32
EN: You get a pullback here for more than 50%.
ZH: 这里的回调幅度超过了50%
15:32 - 15:35
EN: It’s also testing the top of this Tight Trading Range,
ZH: 市场回测了之前这个窄震荡区间的顶部
15:35 - 15:37
EN: and we’re trying to reverse up above a bull bar.
ZH: 多头在这根阳线上方买入做反转
15:38 - 15:42
EN: Small Double Bottom, maybe a Wedge.
ZH: 小双底，也可以看作是楔形——1，2，3
15:41 - 15:42
EN: One, two, three.
ZH: 小双底，也可以看作是楔形——1，2，3
15:42 - 15:48
EN: Does not matter that two does not fall below three.
ZH: 尽管2在1的上方，没关系，仍然是3次向下的推动
15:46 - 15:48
EN: Doesn’t matter.
ZH: 尽管2在1的上方，没关系，仍然是3次向下的推动
15:48 - 15:51
EN: We’re above the bottom of the bull trend.
ZH: 价格仍然保持在上涨趋势的起涨点之上
15:51 - 15:55
EN: This selloff has bad follow-through after bear bars.
ZH: 仔细看这段下跌，每根阴线之后的跟随都不好
15:55 - 15:58
EN: It’s probably a bear leg in a Trading Range or in a bull flag.
ZH: 大概率是震荡区间，或者上涨趋势中的下跌波段
15:58 - 16:00
EN: Traders will look to buy a reversal up.
ZH: 交易者会寻找买入做多的反转机会
16:04 - 16:07
EN: If you want, you can call this a Rounded Bottom.
ZH: 你可以说它是圆弧底
16:07 - 16:09
EN: We have a bear trend and a Rounded Bottom.
ZH: 下降趋势，圆弧底。
16:10 - 16:14
EN: I think it’s a big Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 我称之为低点抬高的大反转
16:14 - 16:18
EN: Bear trend – a sloppy, weak bear trend, but bear trend.
ZH: 下降趋势——很弱，很松散的下降趋势
16:18 - 16:23
EN: Extremely strong bull breakout, and then a pullback to a Higher Low.
ZH: 非常强势的多头突破，然后回调形成更高的低点
16:23 - 16:29
EN: Very deep pullback, but still a pullback that held
ZH: 尽管是深度回调，但仍然维持在起涨点的上方
16:26 - 16:29
EN: above the bottom of the bull breakout.
ZH: 尽管是深度回调，但仍然维持在起涨点的上方
16:29 - 16:32
EN: This is an exceptionally strong bull breakout.
ZH: 这段突破太强势了
16:32 - 16:37
EN: The odds are high that we’re going to get a second leg up,
ZH: 所以尽管有这么深的回调，还是大概率会有第2段上涨
16:35 - 16:37
EN: even with a deep pullback like this.
ZH: 所以尽管有这么深的回调，还是大概率会有第2段上涨
Slide 010
Time: 16:40
Bilingual Transcript
16:45 - 16:49
EN: The bulls see this as a weak reversal attempt on the part of the bears.
ZH: 多头知道，这段小下降趋势很弱
16:49 - 16:54
EN: They know the odds are it’s not going to be a bear trend, that we’re not going
ZH: 他们知道这不会形成大的下降趋势，不会跌破这个低点，
16:53 - 16:56
EN: to break below this low, and therefore they start buying below bars.
ZH: 他们知道这不会形成大的下降趋势，不会跌破这个低点， 因此他们开始在K线下方买入
16:56 - 16:59
EN: They’ll buy below this bar, they’ll buy below this bar,
ZH: 他们会在这根K线，这根K线的下方买入
16:59 - 17:00
EN: they’ll buy below this bar.
ZH: 他们会在这根K线下方买入
17:02 - 17:04
EN: They’re starting to accumulate a position.
ZH: 他们开始吸筹、建仓 （注：机构多次分批买入，逐步建立很大的仓位）
17:05 - 17:13
EN: When the market has a Rounded Bottom, in the old days, 50 years ago,
ZH: 当市场形成圆弧底，在50年、100年以前， 交易者说它是吸筹区域
17:09 - 17:13
EN: 100 years ago, traders would call this an accumulation area.
ZH: 当市场形成圆弧底，在50年、100年以前， 交易者说它是吸筹区域
17:13 - 17:15
EN: And the same with this.
ZH: 这里也是一样
17:15 - 17:18
EN: Traders buying below bars, starting to build a position
ZH: 交易者在K线下方买入，开始建立仓位
17:18 - 17:20
EN: - buying below this bar, betting the breakout will fail,
ZH: 在这根K线下方买入，押注空头的突破会失败
17:20 - 17:25
EN: buying below these lows, betting that the bear breakout attempts will fail.
ZH: 在这些低点下方买入，押注空头的突破会失败
17:27 - 17:35
EN: The bulls look at all of these attempts by the bears
ZH: 多头把每次下跌都看作是绝佳的低价买入机会
17:30 - 17:35
EN: to resume the bear trend as a great chance to buy at a great price.
ZH: 多头把每次下跌都看作是绝佳的低价买入机会
17:36 - 17:42
EN: Bear breakout below this low, yet instead of continuing down,
ZH: 跌破了这个低点，但没有后续，市场反转上涨
17:41 - 17:42
EN: the market reversed up.
ZH: 跌破了这个低点，但没有后续，市场反转上涨
17:42 - 17:45
EN: The bears were not selling aggressively at that low.
ZH: 跌破后没有积极的卖盘跟随
17:46 - 17:54
EN: What took place here in part was bears who sold here used the breakout
ZH: 其中的一个原因是，一些空头在新低买入止盈
17:51 - 17:54
EN: to a new low to buy back their shorts.
ZH: 其中的一个原因是，一些空头在新低买入止盈
17:54 - 17:58
EN: Bear scalpers were buying back shorts, so the bears are scalping.
ZH: 所以空头在剥头皮，赚了就走
17:58 - 18:00
EN: They are not confident that the market is going lower.
ZH: 他们没有让市场进一步下跌的信心
18:00 - 18:03
EN: And the bulls bought the breakout as well.
ZH: 多头也在跌破时逢低买入
18:09 - 18:12
EN: The bears know this is the dominant feature of the chart,
ZH: 空头知道这段上涨主导了目前的市场
18:12 - 18:15
EN: and the odds are the market is going higher.
ZH: 所以大概率市场会继续上涨
18:15 - 18:20
EN: They’ll sell as long as they can make money, but they know the price is too low.
ZH: 如果有机会的话，空头还是会做空， 但他们也知道现在的价格太低了（所以剥头皮赚块钱）
18:22 - 18:26
EN: Eventually, they’re selling, they’re selling, making money,
ZH: 最终，他们做空、做空，赚块钱，
18:26 - 18:27
EN: they’re selling, and then they give up.
ZH: 继续做空，然后放弃了
18:27 - 18:30
EN: Once they see a pair of big bull bars like this,
ZH: 一旦空头看到两根这样的阳线，
18:30 - 18:33
EN: the odds are we’ve begun a swing up.
ZH: 这很可能是上涨波段的开始
Slide 011
Time: 18:35
Bilingual Transcript
18:36 - 18:41
EN: A Rounded Top here, a Head and Shoulders Top
ZH: 这是一个圆弧顶，或者头肩顶——左肩，头，右肩
18:39 - 18:41
EN: - left shoulder, head, right shoulder.
ZH: 这是一个圆弧顶，或者头肩顶——左肩，头，右肩
18:41 - 18:43
EN: It grew into a bigger Rounded Top.
ZH: 它发展成了一个更大的圆弧顶
18:43 - 18:46
EN: A failed breakout above a Head and Shoulders Top,
ZH: 向上突破头肩顶失败
18:46 - 18:52
EN: and now we have a nested Head and Shoulders Top – left shoulder, head,
ZH: 现在变成了嵌套式的头肩顶——左肩，头，右肩， 它变成了一个更大的头肩顶
18:49 - 18:52
EN: right shoulder – and it became a bigger Head and Shoulders Top.
ZH: 现在变成了嵌套式的头肩顶——左肩，头，右肩， 它变成了一个更大的头肩顶
18:52 - 18:55
EN: Left shoulder, head, right shoulder.
ZH: 左肩，头，右肩
18:55 - 18:59
EN: Again, I don’t refer to this as a Rounded Top.
ZH: 再次强调，我不会说它是圆弧顶
18:59 - 19:00
EN: I don’t use that term.
ZH: 我不用这个词
19:00 - 19:03
EN: There’s no clear signal anywhere in here.
ZH: 这里没有任何明确的信号
19:03 - 19:05
EN: Maybe sell below here, maybe sell below here.
ZH: 也许可以在这里或这里做空
19:05 - 19:08
EN: Do you sell below a bull bar? Not all that high probability,
ZH: 可以在阳线下方卖出吗？这样做胜率并不高
19:08 - 19:11
EN: despite three pushes up, one, two, three.
ZH: 尽管有3次向上的推动——1，2，3
19:11 - 19:17
EN: Higher probability, you wait for a pair of big bear bars
ZH: 胜率更高的做法是，等待两根大阴线跌破， 然后在它的收盘开仓做空
19:14 - 19:17
EN: and a breakout, and then start selling closes.
ZH: 胜率更高的做法是，等待两根大阴线跌破， 然后在它的收盘开仓做空
19:22 - 19:24
EN: Very Tight Bull Channel.
ZH: 窄上涨通道
19:24 - 19:28
EN: Probably the first reversal down is minor, and the market will go sideways,
ZH: 第1次下跌大概率只是小反转，市场可能会横盘
19:28 - 19:33
EN: and then possibly form a Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 然后可能形成高点降低的大反转
19:35 - 19:39
EN: You can call it a Double Top Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 也可以看作是高点降低、双顶反转
19:39 - 19:40
EN: Decent sell signal bar.
ZH: 不错的做空信号K线
19:41 - 19:44
EN: A lot of the bears will hold short, stop above this high,
ZH: 一些空头会坚定持有，把止损放在这个高点上方
19:44 - 19:47
EN: and they will not exit on this reversal up.
ZH: 所以他们不会在这个反弹时离场
19:47 - 19:52
EN: Some bears will exit after two legs down – one, pullback, two
ZH: 一些空头会在两段下跌后止盈——1，反弹，2； 而且已经跌到区间的下沿附近
19:51 - 19:53
EN: - bottom of a Trading Range, and then they’ll look to sell again
ZH: 一些空头会在两段下跌后止盈——1，反弹，2； 而且已经跌到区间的下沿附近 止盈后，空头等待再次做空的机会
19:53 - 19:56
EN: either here or below this Micro Double Top.
ZH: 比如这里，或者在小双顶下方卖出做空
20:00 - 20:03
EN: Double Top Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 高点再次降低，双顶反转的机会
20:03 - 20:05
EN: We have a bull breakout, and it failed.
ZH: 向上突破双顶，失败
20:08 - 20:10
EN: If you want, you can call it a Wedge Lower High.
ZH: 你可以把它看作一个楔形顶
20:10 - 20:14
EN: We’re getting a high, Lower High, Lower High.
ZH: 高点，降低，降低
20:14 - 20:17
EN: We have a low, Lower Low, Lower Low.
ZH: 低点，降低，降低
20:17 - 20:22
EN: An early bear trend, so some traders will look to sell below a Wedge Lower High.
ZH: 这是下降趋势早期的特征，所以交易者会在楔形熊旗下方卖出做空
20:25 - 20:30
EN: Higher probability? Start to sell closes after, for example, the second close.
ZH: 如果想要更高的胜率，可以等看到连续两根阴线之后， 在它的收盘卖出做空
20:30 - 20:35
EN: 2 big bear trend bars closing below the low of the past 50 bars or so.
ZH: 这两根大阴线，收盘在过去50根K线的低点下方
20:36 - 20:38
EN: The odds are we’re going lower.
ZH: 继续下跌的概率很大
20:38 - 20:41
EN: Traders start to sell closes here, here, here.
ZH: 交易者可以在它、它、它的收盘卖出做空
20:42 - 20:44
EN: It doesn’t matter where you sell.
ZH: 在哪里卖出都可以
20:44 - 20:47
EN: Any of these closes, the stop is here.
ZH: 在任何阴线的收盘卖出做空，止损在上面
20:47 - 20:50
EN: The stop is far away, the risk is great; however,
ZH: 止损很远，风险较大；然而，优点是胜率高
20:50 - 20:57
EN: you’re getting high probability, and a lot of traders don’t mind paying
ZH: 很多交易者不介意用风险换取更高的胜率
20:54 - 20:57
EN: for high probability with greater risk.
ZH: 很多交易者不介意用风险换取更高的胜率
Slide 012
Time: 21:00
Bilingual Transcript
21:05 - 21:10
EN: You’ll sometimes read older books that refer to a Rounded Top
ZH: 在一些旧的交易书籍里面，你会看到圆弧顶是“派发区域”
21:09 - 21:20
EN: as a “distribution pattern.” Strong bulls are selling out of their positions
ZH: 在一些旧的交易书籍里面，你会看到圆弧顶是“派发区域” 强多头逢高卖出，把手里的“货”卖给弱多头和弱空头
21:15 - 21:20
EN: above bars, distributing their position to weak bulls and to bears.
ZH: 强多头逢高卖出，把手里的“货”卖给弱多头和弱空头
21:21 - 21:23
EN: This is a distribution pattern.
ZH: 这是派发区域
21:23 - 21:26
EN: To me, it’s a bull trend, a Trading Range.
ZH: 对我而言，这是上涨趋势，震荡区间
21:26 - 21:27
EN: The market’s in BreakOut Mode.
ZH: 市场处于突破模式
21:27 - 21:30
EN: 50% chance you’ll get trend resumption up,
ZH: 50%的概率趋势会继续上涨，
21:30 - 21:33
EN: 50% chance you’ll get trend reversal down.
ZH: 50%的概率趋势会反转下跌
21:33 - 21:36
EN: Once you have a pair of big bear bars like that,
ZH: 一旦看到这样的连续两根大阴线
21:36 - 21:38
EN: 60% chance you’re in a swing down.
ZH: 至少60%的概率会形成下跌的波段
21:45 - 21:47
EN: The strong bears look for these bull breakouts.
ZH: 强空头希望看到这些大阳线
21:47 - 21:54
EN: They think the market is topping out, and every time they see
ZH: 他们认为市场正在筑顶，所以只要看到大阳线， 空头就卖出、卖出
21:50 - 21:54
EN: a strong bull bar closing on its high, they sell.
ZH: 他们认为市场正在筑顶，所以只要看到大阳线， 空头就卖出、卖出
21:53 - 21:54
EN: They sell.
ZH: 他们认为市场正在筑顶，所以只要看到大阳线， 空头就卖出、卖出
21:54 - 21:56
EN: You can see what the follow-through is.
ZH: 所以你会看到，跟随很差
21:56 - 21:58
EN: Bull bar, the bears sell.
ZH: 阳线收盘，空头卖出
21:58 - 22:03
EN: So the strong bears are betting that all of these reversal attempts will fail.
ZH: 所以强空头在押注：所有的大阳线都会失败
22:07 - 22:12
EN: The strong bulls also suspect that the price is too high,
ZH: 强多头也怀疑价格太高了， 他们更想逢低买入（不愿意追高）
22:10 - 22:12
EN: and they want to buy lower.
ZH: 强多头也怀疑价格太高了， 他们更想逢低买入（不愿意追高）
22:13 - 22:17
EN: Eventually, all you’re left with is weak bulls, and they give up.
ZH: 最终，剩下的都是弱多头，然后他们放弃了
22:17 - 22:20
EN: The strong bulls want to buy lower, so they’re not buying.
ZH: 强多头想逢低买入，所以他们不会在这里买
22:20 - 22:22
EN: They want to buy down here.
ZH: 他们等着在底部买入
22:22 - 22:26
EN: The weak bulls are buying, and here they give up.
ZH: 弱多头在这里买入，然后在跌破时放弃
22:32 - 22:35
EN: Rounded Tops and bottoms, I don’t use those terms
ZH: 我平时不用“圆弧顶”和“圆弧底”这些名称
Slide 013
Time: 22:35
Bilingual Transcript
22:35 - 22:41
EN: because the patterns are always something else,
ZH: 因为其他的描述更准确，比如头肩结构，或者大反转
22:38 - 22:41
EN: like a Head and Shoulders pattern, a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 因为其他的描述更准确，比如头肩结构，或者大反转
22:45 - 22:46
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
22:46 - 22:48
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
22:48 - 22:53
EN: This is the end of the video on Rounded Tops and bottoms.
ZH: 关于圆弧顶和圆弧底的内容，到这里就全部讲完了