al-brooks-course
27B - Head and Shoulders
Raw transcript and slide notes for 27B - Head and Shoulders.
Overview
- Slides: 12
- Transcript segments: 504
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:10
EN: This is the second of two videos on Head and Shoulders patterns.
ZH: 这是头肩结构的第2节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:11
Bilingual Transcript
00:14 - 00:16
EN: Markets resist change.
ZH: 市场抗拒变化
00:16 - 00:19
EN: That means that when the market’s in a Trading Range,
ZH: 当市场处于震荡区间时，突破的尝试通常都会失败；
00:18 - 00:24
EN: breakout attempts usually fail, and when it’s in a trend,
ZH: 当市场处于震荡区间时，突破的尝试通常都会失败； 而当市场处于趋势时， 反转的尝试通常都会失败
00:22 - 00:24
EN: reversal attempts usually fail.
ZH: 而当市场处于趋势时， 反转的尝试通常都会失败
00:25 - 00:29
EN: And finally, I’ll talk about what happens when you’re in a position,
ZH: 然后我也会讲到，当你开仓之后，设置了合理的止损，
00:29 - 00:32
EN: you have a logical stop, and your stop is hit.
ZH: 止损被打到后会发生什么
Slide 002
Time: 00:33
Bilingual Transcript
00:38 - 00:41
EN: The market’s in a bull trend and we have a Head and Shoulders Top.
ZH: 市场处于上涨趋势，现在有一个头肩顶
00:42 - 00:47
EN: This is an opportunity to remind you that most reversal patterns
ZH: 这是在提醒你，大多数的反转结构都是震荡区间
00:47 - 00:55
EN: are Trading Ranges, and that’s because a trend typically continues,
ZH: 因为随着趋势的发展，多头疲惫、变弱， 而空头变得越来越强
00:52 - 00:55
EN: the bulls get weaker, the bears get stronger,
ZH: 因为随着趋势的发展，多头疲惫、变弱， 而空头变得越来越强
00:55 - 00:58
EN: and there’s a transition phase between a bull trend and a bear trend.
ZH: 在上涨和下降趋势转换的时候，通常会有一个过度阶段
00:59 - 01:02
EN: And that transition phase usually involves some kind of a Trading Range.
ZH: 而这个过渡阶段通常涉及到震荡区间
01:03 - 01:06
EN: Here we have a reversal down, another reversal down,
ZH: 回调下跌，再次下跌
01:06 - 01:10
EN: a third reversal down, and it’s in a Trading Range.
ZH: 这是第3次尝试下跌，并且目前处于震荡区间
01:10 - 01:12
EN: You can call it a Head and Shoulders Top.
ZH: 你可以说它是头肩顶
01:12 - 01:15
EN: All Head and Shoulders Tops are also Triangles.
ZH: 头肩顶也都是三角形
01:15 - 01:19
EN: They have three reversals down and they’re in a horizontal pattern.
ZH: 因为有3次下跌，下沿是水平的
01:20 - 01:25
EN: Sometimes they collapse from that third reversal down, from the right shoulder,
ZH: 有时第3次下跌，也就是右肩，会崩盘
01:25 - 01:29
EN: and break strongly below the bottom and there’s no bounce at all.
ZH: 直接跌破区间的下沿，没有任何反弹
01:29 - 01:34
EN: When that happens, it’s still basically a Triangle that never had a reversal up.
ZH: 在那种情况下，这仍然是一个三角形， 只不过这里没有反转上涨的尝试
01:35 - 01:39
EN: The second high is above the first high.
ZH: 第2个高点高于第1个高点
01:39 - 01:40
EN: The head is above the left shoulder.
ZH: 头高于左肩
01:40 - 01:46
EN: However, it is still part of the pullback in the bull trend.
ZH: 然而，“头”仍然是上涨趋势中回调的一部分
01:46 - 01:51
EN: The bull trend is continuing up here, and at this point it’s still a bull trend;
ZH: 趋势继续上涨，此时它仍然处于上涨趋势
01:51 - 01:55
EN: however, this is the start of the transition into a Trading Range,
ZH: 然而，市场从左肩开始，就开始向震荡区间过渡了，
01:55 - 01:57
EN: even though the bull trend is continuing.
ZH: 尽管上涨趋势还在继续
01:57 - 02:00
EN: This is the start of the bear trend,
ZH: 这是（小）下降趋势的开始
02:00 - 02:03
EN: even though the bull trend might still be continuing here.
ZH: 尽管上涨趋势也许仍然在继续
02:04 - 02:09
EN: Bull trends, bear trends, there’s usually some transition in between
ZH: 上涨和下降趋势之间通常会有一些过渡，
02:09 - 02:12
EN: when there are elements of both the bull trend and the bear trend.
ZH: 这时同时存在上涨和下降趋势的特征
02:12 - 02:16
EN: So, a bear trend often begins before a bull trend ends.
ZH: 所以，下降趋势通常在上涨趋势结束前就开始了
02:16 - 02:19
EN: A Trading Range often begins before a bull trend ends.
ZH: 震荡区间通常在上涨趋势结束前就开始了
02:19 - 02:22
EN: Here, we’re still in the bull trend,
ZH: 这里仍然处于上涨趋势中
02:22 - 02:26
EN: but this high is part of a Trading Range or a Triangle.
ZH: 但这个高点也是震荡区间或三角形的一部分
02:31 - 02:36
EN: The traditional way to trade a Head and Shoulders Top is
ZH: 关于头肩顶，传统的交易方法是在颈线下方挂突破卖单，入场做空
02:34 - 02:36
EN: to enter on a stop below the neckline.
ZH: 关于头肩顶，传统的交易方法是在颈线下方挂突破卖单，入场做空
02:36 - 02:41
EN: The neckline is either a line drawn from the pullback after the left shoulder
ZH: 颈线就是连接左肩和头的低点，
02:41 - 02:47
EN: and the head, or it’s simply a stop order just below either this low,
ZH: 或者直接在头的低点下方挂突破卖单
02:47 - 02:50
EN: the pullback from the head, or the pullback from the left shoulder.
ZH: 或者在左肩的低点下方挂挂突破卖单
02:52 - 02:56
EN: Because a Head and Shoulders Top is a Trading Range, most breakouts fail,
ZH: 因为头肩顶是一个震荡区间，大多数突破都会失败，
02:56 - 03:00
EN: and therefore, if you sell on a stop below the bottom of the range,
ZH: 所以如果你在跌破颈线时卖出做空
03:00 - 03:03
EN: below the neckline, you’re going to lose money most of the time.
ZH: 大部分时间你是会亏钱的
03:03 - 03:10
EN: However, the potential reward is much bigger than the risk,
ZH: 然而，潜在的回报远大于风险，可以弥补低胜率
03:08 - 03:10
EN: and that more than offsets the low probability.
ZH: 然而，潜在的回报远大于风险，可以弥补低胜率
03:11 - 03:15
EN: Most major reversal patterns, including Head and Shoulders Tops,
ZH: 大多数大反转结构，包括头肩顶
03:15 - 03:19
EN: have about a 40% chance of leading to a swing trade,
ZH: 40%的概率会有反转下跌的波段
03:19 - 03:23
EN: a 60% chance of either continuing sideways or up.
ZH: 60%的概率继续横盘或上涨
03:25 - 03:26
EN: This is expected.
ZH: 这是预料之中的
03:26 - 03:29
EN: It’s a bear breakout below a Trading Range.
ZH: 尝试跌破震荡区间
03:29 - 03:31
EN: The markets resist change.
ZH: 但市场抗拒变化
03:31 - 03:35
EN: The markets, when they’re in a Trading Range, tend to stay in Trading Ranges,
ZH: 当市场处于震荡区间时，往往会继续震荡
03:35 - 03:39
EN: and breakout attempts below or above usually fail.
ZH: 向上或向下突破的尝试通常会失败
03:46 - 03:51
EN: When you have a Head and Shoulders Top and the market starts to reverse down
ZH: 当你看到一个头肩顶，价格从右肩开始反转下跌
03:50 - 03:56
EN: from the right shoulder, if that reversal down is very big and very fast,
ZH: 当你看到一个头肩顶，价格从右肩开始反转下跌 如果下跌速度很快、幅度很大，
03:56 - 04:03
EN: there’s a higher probability that it will lead to a successful breakout
ZH: 那么跌破颈线，并一直跌到MM目标位的概率就更高
04:00 - 04:03
EN: below the neckline and a Measured Move down.
ZH: 那么跌破颈线，并一直跌到MM目标位的概率就更高
04:03 - 04:04
EN: That’s not the case here.
ZH: 不像这里
04:05 - 04:08
EN: This is a pair of pretty good bear bars, but these three are
ZH: 这两根阴线还不错，
04:08 - 04:12
EN: in a Tight Trading Range inside of a bigger Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 但这3根K线处于一个窄震荡区间中
04:12 - 04:15
EN: Tail on the bottom, tail on the bottom, bad follow-through.
ZH: 下影线，下影线，跟随一般
04:21 - 04:26
EN: Instead of selling at the bottom of the range on the breakout,
ZH: 相比在跌破的时候追空、押注可能突破成功，
04:24 - 04:34
EN: betting the breakout will be successful, it’s usually better mathematically
ZH: 相比在跌破的时候追空、押注可能突破成功， 数学期望更好的做法是，等待上涨趋势再次恢复， 然后在反转下跌时做空，
04:29 - 04:34
EN: to look at the resumption of the bull trend and sell on a reversal down,
ZH: 数学期望更好的做法是，等待上涨趋势再次恢复， 然后在反转下跌时做空，
04:34 - 04:37
EN: betting that the market will test the bottom of the range.
ZH: 押注会测试区间的下沿
04:38 - 04:42
EN: Remember, at this point we’ve had reversals down and up
ZH: 注意，此时已经来回反转，并且横盘了大约40根K线
04:40 - 04:42
EN: and we’ve been sideways for 40 bars.
ZH: 注意，此时已经来回反转，并且横盘了大约40根K线
04:42 - 04:44
EN: We’re in a Trading Range.
ZH: 市场处于震荡区间中
04:44 - 04:46
EN: Buy low, sell high.
ZH: 低买，高卖
04:46 - 04:46
EN: We’re high.
ZH: 现在在高位
04:46 - 04:49
EN: You should sell in the top half of the range,
ZH: 你应该在区间的顶部卖出
04:49 - 04:51
EN: or a reversal down from the top half of the range.
ZH: 或者在从顶部反转下跌时卖出
04:52 - 04:56
EN: Selling on a breakout below the bottom of the range is a low probability bet
ZH: 跌破区间下沿时去追空，是低概率的做法，
04:56 - 04:59
EN: because most Trading Range breakouts fail.
ZH: 因为大多数震荡区间突破的尝试都会失败
04:59 - 05:03
EN: If you’re looking to short, once the market has a possible left shoulder,
ZH: 如果你想做空，一旦出现了潜在的左肩和头，
05:03 - 05:07
EN: a possible head, and then a rally, it’s usually better to short
ZH: 然后再次上涨，形成更低的高点（右肩+做空信号）
05:07 - 05:13
EN: on the reversal down from that rally, the right shoulder,
ZH: 这时候入场做空更好，比跌破颈线时去追空要好
05:10 - 05:13
EN: than it is to sell on a breakout below the bottom of the range.
ZH: 这时候入场做空更好，比跌破颈线时去追空要好
05:14 - 05:16
EN: You have a better chance of making money.
ZH: 赚到钱的概率更大
Slide 003
Time: 05:20
Bilingual Transcript
05:21 - 05:26
EN: I mentioned that there are different ways
ZH: 刚才也提到，头肩顶的颈线有不同的画法
05:23 - 05:26
EN: to draw the neckline of a Head and Shoulders Top.
ZH: 刚才也提到，头肩顶的颈线有不同的画法
05:27 - 05:32
EN: For example, you can use the low from the pullback from the head.
ZH: 比如，你可以选择头之后的这个低点
05:32 - 05:35
EN: That’s the most recent Higher Low in a bull trend
ZH: 这是上涨趋势中最近的一个抬高的低点
05:35 - 05:37
EN: - at least, in this particular case it is.
ZH: 至少在这个案例中是（抬高的）
05:37 - 05:44
EN: Sometimes this low is below that low, but right here,
ZH: 有时它会低于左肩的低点 但这里，它就是上涨趋势中最近的一个抬高的低点
05:41 - 05:44
EN: it’s the most recent Higher Low in a bull trend.
ZH: 但这里，它就是上涨趋势中最近的一个抬高的低点
05:44 - 05:48
EN: The reversal up is not all that strong, so in this particular case,
ZH: 后面的并没有强势突破创新高
05:48 - 05:51
EN: this is not really a major Higher Low.
ZH: 所以不是一个重要的低点
05:51 - 05:55
EN: If we had a very strong reversal up here, then this becomes major,
ZH: 如果后面的上涨非常强势，那么它才变得重要，
05:55 - 05:59
EN: and if the market falls below it, the bull trend has ended,
ZH: （如果它是重要低点） 当市场跌破它的时候，上涨趋势已经结束，
05:59 - 06:02
EN: and the market has either entered a Trading Range or a bear trend.
ZH: 市场要么进入震荡区间，要么反转成下降趋势
06:02 - 06:05
EN: We’re clearly already in a Trading Range.
ZH: 当然，现在显然已经处于震荡区间
06:05 - 06:14
EN: However, if this was a major Higher Low and we had a strong selloff below it,
ZH: 只是说，如果它是重要低点，并且强势跌破它， 变成下降趋势的概率就增加了
06:10 - 06:14
EN: it would increase the chances that we would convert into a bear trend.
ZH: 只是说，如果它是重要低点，并且强势跌破它， 变成下降趋势的概率就增加了
06:16 - 06:19
EN: Some traders enter on the breakout below this pullback.
ZH: 一些空头在跌破这个低点时卖出做空
06:21 - 06:24
EN: This is the low of the entire Trading Range.
ZH: 这个是（目前）整个震荡区间的最低点
06:24 - 06:27
EN: Sometimes this low from the head is the low.
ZH: 有时候头之后的回调是最低点
06:27 - 06:33
EN: Here, in this particular case, the pullback from the left shoulder
ZH: 在这个案例中，左肩之后的回调是整个震荡区间的最低点
06:31 - 06:33
EN: is the low of the entire Trading Range.
ZH: 在这个案例中，左肩之后的回调是整个震荡区间的最低点
06:34 - 06:39
EN: Some traders prefer to enter not simply on the breakout below the higher
ZH: 一些交易者认为，跌破较高的那个低点还不够，
06:39 - 06:42
EN: of the two lows; they tend to enter on the lower of the two lows,
ZH: 最好要跌破最低的那个低点，他们再入场做空
06:42 - 06:49
EN: thinking that there might be a slightly higher probability
ZH: 因为他们认为如果市场跌破前期所有的K线， 跌破成功的概率就会更高一些
06:45 - 06:49
EN: of a successful breakout if the market breaks below all of the bars.
ZH: 因为他们认为如果市场跌破前期所有的K线， 跌破成功的概率就会更高一些
06:53 - 06:59
EN: The traditional way to draw the neckline is
ZH: 传统的颈线画法是把两个低点连接起来
06:56 - 06:59
EN: to use a line connecting the two lows.
ZH: 传统的颈线画法是把两个低点连接起来
06:59 - 07:02
EN: Sometimes this low from the head is above the low
ZH: 有时头的低点高于左肩的低点
07:02 - 07:04
EN: from the left shoulder, and you have a rising line.
ZH: 那么就是一条向上倾斜的线
07:04 - 07:08
EN: Other times the pullback from the head is below,
ZH: 有时头的低点更低，
07:08 - 07:10
EN: and you have a slightly declining line.
ZH: 那么颈线就略微向下倾斜
07:15 - 07:18
EN: Usually this low and that low are fairly close together.
ZH: 通常，这两个低点距离比较静
07:18 - 07:20
EN: The bulls see a Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 多头把它看作双底牛旗
07:20 - 07:22
EN: The rally from the Double Bottom failed.
ZH: 双底后的上涨失败了
07:22 - 07:27
EN: It did not get above the high of the trend, and that confuses traders
ZH: 没有能够突破前期的高点，这让交易者感到困惑，
07:27 - 07:32
EN: and it makes traders wonder if, instead of bull trend resumption,
ZH: 他们开始怀疑上涨趋势是否能继续， 还是说有可能会反转下跌
07:30 - 07:32
EN: we might get trend reversal down.
ZH: 他们开始怀疑上涨趋势是否能继续， 还是说有可能会反转下跌
07:33 - 07:37
EN: The three choices for lines for the neckline are usually close together,
ZH: 尽管颈线有3种画法，但通常它们之间的距离很近，
07:37 - 07:39
EN: and the entry prices from the three possibilities
ZH: 所以3个做空入场点的价格也比较近，
07:39 - 07:43
EN: are usually very close together, and it does not matter which one you take.
ZH: 所以到底选择哪个并不是太重要
07:43 - 07:46
EN: If you’re looking to sell on the breakout below the neckline,
ZH: 如果你想在跌破颈线的时候做空
07:46 - 07:48
EN: it doesn’t matter which one you use.
ZH: 选择哪个都没区别
Slide 004
Time: 07:50
Bilingual Transcript
07:56 - 07:57
EN: We’re in a bull trend.
ZH: 市场处于上涨趋势
07:58 - 08:03
EN: Even with this selloff, it might be a High 2 bull flag – Leg 1, pullback, Leg 2.
ZH: 尽管有这样的下跌，可能只是高2牛旗—— 1，反弹，2
08:03 - 08:07
EN: It might be a Double Bottom bull flag, and the bull trend could continue up.
ZH: 可能是双底牛旗，上涨趋势会继续
08:08 - 08:11
EN: Trends, like Trading Ranges, resist change.
ZH: 趋势，就像震荡区间一样，往往抗拒变化
08:11 - 08:16
EN: A trend tends to continue despite many attempts to reverse.
ZH: 尽管有许多反转的尝试，但趋势还是会继续
08:17 - 08:23
EN: And therefore, if you’re looking to trade a reversal,
ZH: 因此，如果你想做反转，通常需要几次尝试
08:20 - 08:23
EN: you often have to take several attempts.
ZH: 因此，如果你想做反转，通常需要几次尝试
08:30 - 08:35
EN: Let’s say a trader sold on a breakout below that low or this low.
ZH: 假设空头在跌破这个低点，或那个低点的时候卖出做空了
08:35 - 08:40
EN: They get filled here or somewhere in here, and then they see this doji bar.
ZH: 他们的突破卖单在这根K线成交； 然后他们看到了这个十字星
08:40 - 08:43
EN: Some traders will exit, arguing a Wedge leg down
ZH: 一些空头会直接离场，因为这像是楔形牛旗
08:43 - 08:47
EN: - three pushes down, one, two, and then three
ZH: 3次向下的推动——1，2，然后3
08:47 - 08:50
EN: - and then the market’s reversing up at the bottom of a Trading Range.
ZH: 然后市场在震荡区间下沿反转上涨
08:50 - 08:53
EN: Other traders will get out above this bull bar.
ZH: 其他空头会在这个阳线上方离场
08:53 - 08:57
EN: In any case, if a trader enters with a stop on the breakout
ZH: 总之，如果空头在突破颈线时追空，
08:57 - 09:00
EN: below this range and we reverse up, especially if we reverse up
ZH: 当价格反转上涨，尤其是有比较好的阳线时，
09:00 - 09:03
EN: above a bull bar, most traders would get out.
ZH: 大多数交易者会止损离场
09:03 - 09:07
EN: If they sold here or here, they’d make a small profit.
ZH: 对于在这里或这里卖出的空头，他们可以小赚离场
09:07 - 09:09
EN: If they sold here, they’d have a small loss.
ZH: 如果在突破时追空，那就是小亏离场
09:10 - 09:12
EN: The bull trend is resuming.
ZH: 上涨趋势在恢复
09:13 - 09:17
EN: Theoretically, the stop for the bears is above the right shoulder.
ZH: 理论上，空头的止损会放在右肩的上方
09:17 - 09:21
EN: Some bears would hold short, even with this reversal up,
ZH: 尽管看到了反转上涨，一些空头会继续持有，
09:21 - 09:24
EN: and exit with a stop above the right shoulder.
ZH: 直到右肩上方的止损被打到
09:24 - 09:26
EN: I usually do not do that.
ZH: 我通常不会这样做
09:26 - 09:29
EN: If there’s a decent reversal up at the bottom of the range,
ZH: 如果市场从区间下沿反转上涨，
09:29 - 09:31
EN: I’ll get out either here or here.
ZH: 我会在这里或这里提前离场
09:34 - 09:36
EN: The market has a very strong breakout.
ZH: 非常强势的大阳线
09:36 - 09:40
EN: It’s probably going to have at least a small second leg up – and it did, here.
ZH: 大概率至少会有小的第2段上涨，像这样
09:41 - 09:43
EN: Now we’re breaking above the top of the Trading Range.
ZH: 现在突破了震荡区间的上沿
09:43 - 09:46
EN: What do you think is going to happen? We’re in a Trading Range.
ZH: 你觉得接下来会发生什么？ 市场处于震荡区间中
09:46 - 09:51
EN: Most breakouts fail, and this is a second entry short
ZH: 大多数的突破会失败， 这是在区间上沿的第2做空入场点
09:49 - 09:51
EN: on the breakout above the top of the range.
ZH: 大多数的突破会失败， 这是在区间上沿的第2做空入场点
09:51 - 09:53
EN: First entry short, second entry short.
ZH: 第1入场点，第2入场点
09:53 - 09:55
EN: Decent bear bar.
ZH: 不错的阴线
09:55 - 09:56
EN: It’s a reasonable short.
ZH: 合理的做空机会
09:56 - 10:01
EN: It’s no longer a Head and Shoulders Top, but it is a consecutive tops pattern.
ZH: 它不再是一个头肩顶，而是连续的筑顶
10:01 - 10:05
EN: We had a top attempt here, a Head and Shoulders Top,
ZH: 之前尝试在这里筑顶，头肩顶
10:05 - 10:07
EN: and now we have a second top.
ZH: 现在是第2次筑顶
10:07 - 10:12
EN: We have a second entry short, failed breakout above a Trading Range.
ZH: 而且是第2做空入场点，突破震荡区间上沿失败
10:12 - 10:15
EN: Also, it’s an Expanding Triangle Top.
ZH: 此外，它也是一个扩张三角顶
10:15 - 10:19
EN: We have a high, we have a Higher High, and we have a third Higher High.
ZH: 高点，更高的高点，第3个高点又抬高
10:19 - 10:21
EN: We have a low, we have a Lower Low.
ZH: 下沿是低点，更低的低点
10:21 - 10:27
EN: An Expanding Triangle Top is also a type of Higher High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 扩张三角顶也是一种高点抬高的大反转
10:27 - 10:31
EN: We have a bull trend, a bear breakout, and then trend resumption up
ZH: 上涨趋势，空头突破，然后上涨趋势恢复创新高，
10:31 - 10:35
EN: to a Higher High, and the trend resumption up failed twice.
ZH: 但是两次反转下跌
10:36 - 10:40
EN: That’s an Expanding Triangle Top and a reasonable short.
ZH: 这是一个扩张三角顶，也是合理的做空机会
10:41 - 10:45
EN: If you want, you could simply call it a Wedge and say three pushes up
ZH: 你可以说它是楔形，因为有3次向上推动——
10:45 - 10:49
EN: -one, two, three – even though it’s not a Wedge shape.
ZH: 1，2，3——即使它并没有楔形的形状 （注：3推，但是不收敛）
10:51 - 10:54
EN: Bears sell on the reversal down.
ZH: 空头在反转下跌时卖出做空
10:54 - 10:56
EN: We’re starting to go down.
ZH: 市场开始下跌
Slide 005
Time: 10:55
Bilingual Transcript
10:56 - 10:58
EN: We have about 6 or 7 bars without a bull body.
ZH: 连续6~7根K线，没有阳线
10:58 - 11:03
EN: The bulls tried to reverse up, and then we have
ZH: 多头尝试继续上涨，但是大阴线反转下跌
11:00 - 11:03
EN: a very big bear bar reversing down.
ZH: 多头尝试继续上涨，但是大阴线反转下跌
11:03 - 11:10
EN: Some traders will sell below this low, thinking that this is good enough
ZH: 一些空头会在它的下方卖出做空， 认为这里有足够的卖压，至少会有小的第2段下跌
11:07 - 11:10
EN: Selling Pressure for at least a small second leg down,
ZH: 认为这里有足够的卖压，至少会有小的第2段下跌
11:10 - 11:12
EN: and they’ll look to sell below a bear bar.
ZH: 所以他们会在阴线下方卖出做空
11:12 - 11:14
EN: They get filled here.
ZH: 卖单会在这里成交
11:14 - 11:18
EN: Consecutive bear bars, probably going to have a swing down.
ZH: 连续的阴线，可能会有下跌的波段
11:18 - 11:23
EN: Bears now have their stop above here, and because a swing down is likely,
ZH: 现在空头把止损放在这里上方，
11:23 - 11:26
EN: if they see a reversal up, they’re going to look to sell
ZH: 如果看见反弹，他们会在阴线下方再次卖出做空，
11:26 - 11:31
EN: below a bear bar for a resumption of the bear trend, a Lower High.
ZH: 期待高点降低、继续下跌
11:31 - 11:35
EN: Remember, their stop is here above this strong bear breakout.
ZH: 再讲一遍，空头的止损放在大阴线的上方，
11:36 - 11:39
EN: They’ll bet that the reversal up will become a bear flag
ZH: 他们押注这只是一次反弹，是熊旗
11:39 - 11:41
EN: and that the bear trend will continue down.
ZH: 然后会继续下跌
11:47 - 11:50
EN: We have a bull trend, and now we’re in a Trading Range.
ZH: 之前是上涨趋势，现在进入震荡区间
11:50 - 11:54
EN: And once a bull trend has a pullback that grows to 20 or more bars,
ZH: 一旦上涨趋势中的回调发展到20根或更多K线
11:54 - 11:57
EN: I call it a Trading Range, and at that point,
ZH: 我就称之为震荡区间，
11:57 - 12:03
EN: the probability of trend resumption up falls to about the same
ZH: 而且此时趋势恢复上涨的概率降低， 变得和趋势反转下跌的概率相同，50对50
12:00 - 12:03
EN: as the probability of trend reversal down.
ZH: 而且此时趋势恢复上涨的概率降低， 变得和趋势反转下跌的概率相同，50对50
12:03 - 12:07
EN: In general, even if the Trading Range has 20 or 30 bars,
ZH: 通常来说，即使震荡区间有20或30根K线
12:07 - 12:11
EN: it’s slightly more likely to resume up than reverse down,
ZH: 继续上涨的概率会略微大一点点，
12:11 - 12:14
EN: but the probability is very close to 50/50.
ZH: 但总的来说很接近50对50
12:15 - 12:18
EN: We tried to reverse down here and again here.
ZH: 空头尝试在这里和这里反转下跌
12:18 - 12:19
EN: It failed.
ZH: 失败了
12:19 - 12:21
EN: We tried to resume up.
ZH: 多头尝试恢复上涨
12:21 - 12:21
EN: That failed.
ZH: 也失败了
12:21 - 12:27
EN: We tried to reverse down again, and it was successful at this point.
ZH: 再次尝试反转下跌，终于在这里成功了
12:27 - 12:30
EN: A bear breakout and a follow-through bar, possibly a Measuring Gap
ZH: 空头突破，而且有跟随的阴线，可能是测量型缺口
12:30 - 12:33
EN: for a Measured Move down based upon the height of the Trading Range.
ZH: 把震荡区间的高度往下翻一倍
12:38 - 12:41
EN: Bull trend, a pullback, a bull flag.
ZH: 上涨趋势，回调，是牛旗
12:41 - 12:43
EN: The bull trend will probably resume.
ZH: 上涨趋势大概率会继续
12:43 - 12:46
EN: It resumed, but you have a deep selloff here.
ZH: 确实继续了，但这里有深度抛售
12:47 - 12:56
EN: Some traders would see this as a Higher High Major Trend Reversal – bull trend,
ZH: 一些交易者会把它看作高点抬高的大反转—— 上涨趋势，空头突破，高点抬高， 然后连续5根阴线下跌
12:51 - 12:56
EN: bear breakout, Higher High, reversal down with 5 consecutive bear bars.
ZH: 上涨趋势，空头突破，高点抬高， 然后连续5根阴线下跌
12:56 - 13:00
EN: That’s enough selling so that we have big up, big down.
ZH: 卖压足够大，所以是大涨、大跌
13:00 - 13:01
EN: That means big confusion.
ZH: 造成了大的困惑
13:01 - 13:04
EN: Confusion usually means sideways.
ZH: 困惑意味着会横盘
13:04 - 13:08
EN: Traders are confident the market probably will not go down very far
ZH: 交易者认为跌不了多远，就会有多头逢低买入，
13:08 - 13:16
EN: before the bulls buy again at the prior low, and after 5 consecutive bear bars,
ZH: 但同时，在连续5根阴线下跌之后， 上涨的尝试也大概率会失败，
13:13 - 13:16
EN: they’re confident that the first reversal up will probably fail,
ZH: 但同时，在连续5根阴线下跌之后， 上涨的尝试也大概率会失败，
13:16 - 13:18
EN: and we’ll have to test down again.
ZH: 然后市场会再次向下测试
13:18 - 13:21
EN: The bulls were disappointed by the extent of this selloff;
ZH: 多头对这次的大幅抛售感到失望
13:21 - 13:24
EN: the bears were disappointed by the extent of this rally.
ZH: 而空头对连续的阳线反弹感到失望
13:25 - 13:30
EN: Confusion and disappointment, at this point, hallmark of a Trading Range.
ZH: 困惑和失望，就是震荡区间的特征
13:30 - 13:38
EN: Probably this is a Trading Range and most attempts to break
ZH: 大概率市场处于震荡区间，而且大部分向上突破的尝试会失败， 比如这里、这里、和这里
13:34 - 13:43
EN: to the up side will fail, like here, here, or here, and most attempts to break
ZH: 大概率市场处于震荡区间，而且大部分向上突破的尝试会失败， 比如这里、这里、和这里 同时大部分向下突破的尝试也会失败， 比如这里和这里
13:40 - 13:43
EN: to the down side will probably fail, like here or here.
ZH: 同时大部分向下突破的尝试也会失败， 比如这里和这里
13:44 - 13:47
EN: Traders look to buy low and sell high.
ZH: 交易者准备高抛低吸赚快钱
13:50 - 13:57
EN: Whenever the market’s in a Trading Range, there are always reasonable reasons
ZH: 只要市场处于震荡区间， 就会同时存在做多和做空的机会，而且都合理
13:54 - 13:57
EN: to buy and reasonable reasons to sell.
ZH: 只要市场处于震荡区间， 就会同时存在做多和做空的机会，而且都合理
13:57 - 14:00
EN: For example, here we’re 30 bars into a Trading Range.
ZH: 例如，这里已经震荡了30根K线
14:00 - 14:03
EN: The bulls see a Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 多头看到的是双底牛旗
14:03 - 14:08
EN: The bears see a Higher High and a Lower High Major Trend Reversal
ZH: 而空头看到的是高点降低的大反转结构，还有头肩顶
14:07 - 14:08
EN: and a Head and Shoulders Top.
ZH: 而空头看到的是高点降低的大反转结构，还有头肩顶
14:09 - 14:11
EN: We’re trying to break below the bottom of the range.
ZH: 正在尝试跌破区间的下沿
14:11 - 14:15
EN: The bulls see a big High 2 – Leg 1, pullback, Leg 2.
ZH: 多头看到一个大的高2——1，反弹，2
14:15 - 14:17
EN: They see a Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 他们看到一个双底牛旗
14:17 - 14:19
EN: They see a bigger Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 他们看到一个更大的双底牛旗
14:22 - 14:24
EN: Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 双底牛旗
14:29 - 14:32
EN: You can take any of these trades.
ZH: 这些做多做空的入场点都是合理的
14:32 - 14:36
EN: The probability is about 40% that you’ll get a swing trade.
ZH: 得到波段的概率大约是40%
14:36 - 14:40
EN: By a swing trade, I mean a reward at least equal to twice the risk,
ZH: 波段的意思是，利润至少是风险的两倍
14:41 - 14:44
EN: and usually having at least two legs and at least 10 bars.
ZH: 而且通常至少有两段、10根K线
14:44 - 14:47
EN: 60% chance you will not get a swing trade.
ZH: 60%的概率不会有波段
14:47 - 14:50
EN: 60% chance the market will either continue sideways
ZH: 60%的概率市场要么继续横盘（注：剥头皮小赚）
14:50 - 14:52
EN: or go the opposite direction.
ZH: 要么朝相反的方向移动（注：止损小亏）
14:54 - 14:59
EN: Now, we have a head, a left shoulder, and we’re breaking below the neckline.
ZH: 现在有了头和右肩，尝试跌破颈线
15:00 - 15:03
EN: This is a Double Bottom.
ZH: 这是一个双底
15:03 - 15:07
EN: It’s a Double Bottom bull flag, and we have a break
ZH: 是双底牛旗，正在尝试跌破它
15:05 - 15:07
EN: below the Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 是双底牛旗，正在尝试跌破它
15:07 - 15:11
EN: We therefore have three pushes down – one, two, and three.
ZH: 所以有了3次向下的推动——1，2，3
15:11 - 15:15
EN: This functionally is the same as a Wedge bull flag.
ZH: 它和3推楔形牛旗的功能一样
15:15 - 15:17
EN: It doesn’t matter that it does not have a Wedge shape.
ZH: 尽管它没有楔形的形状（不收敛，3点不在一条直线上）
15:17 - 15:19
EN: It’s three attempts down.
ZH: 但是有3次下跌的尝试
15:20 - 15:22
EN: Traders will look to buy a reversal up.
ZH: 交易者会在反转上涨时买入
15:23 - 15:27
EN: Any time the market tries to do something three times and fails,
ZH: 每当市场尝试做某事3次，并且失败时
15:27 - 15:30
EN: traders expect it to do the opposite.
ZH: 交易者预期它会开始做相反的事情
15:30 - 15:34
EN: Likewise, this is a Wedge Top – one, two, three.
ZH: 同样，这是一个楔形顶——1，2，3
15:34 - 15:36
EN: Because it does not have a Wedge shape,
ZH: 因为它没有楔形的形状，
15:36 - 15:38
EN: I typically do not refer to this as a Wedge Top.
ZH: 所以我通常不会说这是楔形顶
15:38 - 15:42
EN: I typically do not refer to this as a Wedge Bottom.
ZH: 我通常也不会说这是楔形底
15:42 - 15:47
EN: But both are variations of Wedges, because the forces are the same.
ZH: 但两者都是楔形的变体，因为原理和作用是相同的
15:47 - 15:51
EN: The market tried to do something three times and reversed.
ZH: 市场尝试做某事3次后，失败、反转
15:51 - 15:54
EN: Here, the market tried to rally three times,
ZH: 这里，市场3次尝试上涨
15:54 - 15:58
EN: and traders expect it to fail and they’ll look to sell a reversal down.
ZH: 交易者预期它会失败，他们会做空押注反转下跌
16:03 - 16:05
EN: Three attempts down.
ZH: 3次下跌的尝试，水平的
16:04 - 16:05
EN: Horizontal.
ZH: 3次下跌的尝试，水平的
16:05 - 16:07
EN: You can call it a failed breakout below a Trading Range,
ZH: 你可以说这是跌破震荡区间失败，
16:07 - 16:09
EN: a failed breakout below a Double Bottom.
ZH: 或者跌破双底失败
16:09 - 16:11
EN: You can call it a High 2 bull flag.
ZH: 你可以说它是高2牛旗
16:11 - 16:12
EN: You can even call it a Wedge.
ZH: 你甚至可以说它是楔形底
16:12 - 16:14
EN: The forces are all the same.
ZH: 本质都是一样的
16:15 - 16:16
EN: It’s a failed breakout below the range.
ZH: 跌破震荡区间失败，
16:16 - 16:22
EN: Traders either buy on a stop above this doji bar,
ZH: 交易者在十字星或这根阳线的上方挂突破买单 （注：空头离场，多头入场）
16:20 - 16:22
EN: or they look to buy above a bull bar.
ZH: 交易者在十字星或这根阳线的上方挂突破买单 （注：空头离场，多头入场）
16:22 - 16:25
EN: Buying above this bull bar has higher probability.
ZH: （相比十字星）在这个阳线上方买入的胜率更高
16:25 - 16:27
EN: And look what happened when it went above that bull bar.
ZH: 注意看，在价格突破那个阳线的时候发生了什么？
16:27 - 16:32
EN: We have a very big bull bar, and that tells you
ZH: 非常大的阳线，这告诉你有很多交易者在它的上方买入
16:29 - 16:32
EN: that lots of traders bought above this bull bar.
ZH: 非常大的阳线，这告诉你有很多交易者在它的上方买入
16:32 - 16:36
EN: The bears bought back their shorts, and the bulls bought
ZH: 空头回补、多头入场，
16:36 - 16:38
EN: expecting a resumption of the bull trend.
ZH: 预期上涨趋势会恢复
Slide 006
Time: 16:40
Bilingual Transcript
16:42 - 16:44
EN: What happens when a stop is hit?
ZH: 止损被触发之后会发生什么？
Slide 007
Time: 16:45
Bilingual Transcript
16:51 - 16:54
EN: We have a bull trend, a Head and Shoulders Top.
ZH: 上涨趋势，头肩顶
16:54 - 16:58
EN: Some bears will sell a reversal down from this rally,
ZH: 一些空头会在反弹之后卖出做空
16:58 - 17:02
EN: betting that it’ll be a right shoulder of a Head and Shoulders Top.
ZH: 押注它是头肩顶的右肩
17:02 - 17:04
EN: Other bears will sell a pullback.
ZH: 如果有反弹，空头会再次卖出
17:04 - 17:08
EN: We have big up, big down, a Double Bottom.
ZH: 大涨，大跌，小的双底
17:08 - 17:09
EN: They’re expecting the bear breakout.
ZH: 然而空头希望会向下跌破
17:09 - 17:10
EN: They’ll sell below this bar.
ZH: 他们在这根K线的下方卖出
17:10 - 17:15
EN: Others will sell at that low, this low, or that low on a stop,
ZH: 也有空头在这个低点，这个低点或那个低点下方卖出做空
17:15 - 17:19
EN: betting that they have a chance of a Measured Move down.
ZH: 押注会跌到MM目标位
17:20 - 17:24
EN: Some bulls, if they buy this reversal up – a pretty strong reversal
ZH: 一些多头，如果他们在反转上涨时买入做多——非常强势的反弹
17:24 - 17:28
EN: - they’ll put a stop below this low, and they get stopped out here.
ZH: ——他们会把止损放在这个低点的下方，会在这里被止损出局
17:28 - 17:32
EN: So you have bears stopping themselves into shorts below that low,
ZH: 所以在这个低点下方，有空头用来开仓的突破卖单
17:32 - 17:37
EN: and you have bulls stopping out of longs if the market falls below that low.
ZH: 也有多头用来止损的突破卖单
17:41 - 17:45
EN: The bears who sell here, we have 4 decent bear bars
ZH: 空头在右肩做空之后，连续4根不错的阴线，
17:45 - 17:47
EN: and now we have a big bear breakout bar.
ZH: 现在有更大的大阴线向下跌破
17:47 - 17:50
EN: Some bears will exit on a stop above this bear bar.
ZH: 一些空头会把止损放在（或移动到）这根大阴线的上方
17:50 - 17:56
EN: Others will exit on a stop above the right shoulder
ZH: 其它空头仍然把止损放在右肩的上方
17:54 - 17:56
EN: of the Head and Shoulders Top.
ZH: 其它空头仍然把止损放在右肩的上方
17:57 - 18:01
EN: A bear trend needs Lower Lows and Lower Highs.
ZH: 下降趋势需要更低的低点，和更低的高点
18:01 - 18:07
EN: If the market has a major Lower High – a Lower High that has a strong breakout,
ZH: 如果一个重要的高点—— 之后强势跌破创新低的高点，
18:07 - 18:15
EN: especially if it goes to a new low – the bears place their stops
ZH: 空头会把止损放在那个高点的上方， 因为如果这个高点被突破了
18:11 - 18:15
EN: above that Lower High, because if it gets above that high,
ZH: 空头会把止损放在那个高点的上方， 因为如果这个高点被突破了
18:15 - 18:20
EN: their premise of a series of Lower Highs and Lower Lows is no longer valid.
ZH: 高、低点不断降低的前提就不再成立
18:20 - 18:23
EN: Their premise of a bear trend is no longer valid.
ZH: 下降趋势这个前提就不再成立了
18:23 - 18:26
EN: Once the market gets above this major Lower High,
ZH: 一旦市场突破这个重要的高点，
18:26 - 18:29
EN: the market’s either in a Trading Range or a bull trend.
ZH: 市场要么处于震荡区间，要么处于上涨趋势中
18:29 - 18:31
EN: It’s no longer in a bear trend.
ZH: 不再是下降趋势
18:36 - 18:39
EN: Breaking above the top of this major Lower High,
ZH: 市场突破了这个重要的高点
18:39 - 18:42
EN: it’s now either a bull trend or a Trading Range.
ZH: 现在要么是上涨趋势，要么是震荡区间
18:42 - 18:46
EN: Bulls buy, expecting trend resumption up.
ZH: 多头买入，期待趋势恢复上涨
18:46 - 18:47
EN: They have a bull trend.
ZH: 上涨趋势
18:47 - 18:49
EN: They see this as a two-legged pullback
ZH: 多头把这个看作是两段式回调
18:49 - 18:52
EN: - one, pullback, two – a High 2 bull flag.
ZH: 1，反弹，2——高2牛旗
18:52 - 18:56
EN: They also see it as a failed breakout below a Head and Shoulders Top,
ZH: 他们也知道，空头的头肩顶跌破颈线失败了，
18:56 - 18:58
EN: especially once it gets above that right shoulder.
ZH: 尤其如果突破右肩的高点
18:58 - 19:00
EN: They know the bears will give up there.
ZH: 多头知道空头会在这里止损放弃
19:01 - 19:04
EN: Maybe Leg 1, pullback, Leg 2.
ZH: 也许是大的第1段，回调，第2段
19:04 - 19:06
EN: And the bears buy as well.
ZH: 空头也在买入
19:06 - 19:11
EN: They get out of their shorts because their premise
ZH: 他们买回空头仓位，因为下降趋势的前提已经不再有效
19:09 - 19:11
EN: of a bear trend is no longer valid.
ZH: 他们买回空头仓位，因为下降趋势的前提已经不再有效
19:18 - 19:27
EN: In general, whenever any protective stop is hit, there’s a 50% chance
ZH: 通常来说，每当保护性止损被触发， 50%的概率突破会成功，并且形成波段
19:23 - 19:27
EN: that you’ll get a swing in the direction of the breakout
ZH: 50%的概率突破会成功，并且形成波段
19:27 - 19:29
EN: and a 50% chance you’ll get a reversal.
ZH: 50%的概率突破会失败、反转
19:30 - 19:35
EN: The bears who sell here, 50% chance you’re going to get a swing down,
ZH: 在这里卖出的空头，有50%的概率会得到下跌波段
19:35 - 19:38
EN: 50% chance you’ll get a reversal up.
ZH: 50%的概率会被反转上涨
19:38 - 19:42
EN: The bulls who buy here, 50% chance you’ll get a swing up,
ZH: 在这里买入的多头，有50%的概率会得到上涨波段
19:42 - 19:44
EN: 50% chance you’ll get a swing down.
ZH: 50%的概率会被反转下跌
19:45 - 19:48
EN: Here, the bears saw a reversal up.
ZH: 这里（打掉多头的止损之后），反转上涨
19:48 - 19:52
EN: Here, the bulls saw an attempt at a reversal down,
ZH: 这里（打掉空头的止损之后），一度尝试反转下跌，
19:52 - 19:55
EN: but it became a bull flag and we got the swing up.
ZH: 但它变成了牛旗，最终形成了上涨趋势
19:56 - 19:57
EN: Opposite things happened here.
ZH: 这里则是相反的情况
19:57 - 20:02
EN: Here, the stop for the bulls was hit, yet the bull trend resumed.
ZH: 这里，多头的止损被打到，但上涨趋势很快恢复了
20:02 - 20:08
EN: Here, the stop for the bear trend was hit,
ZH: 这里，空头的止损被打到，市场进入上涨趋势
20:05 - 20:08
EN: but the market reversed into a bull trend.
ZH: 这里，空头的止损被打到，市场进入上涨趋势
20:15 - 20:17
EN: 4 consecutive bull bars closing on their highs.
ZH: 连续4根阳线收在最高
Slide 008
Time: 20:15
Bilingual Transcript
20:17 - 20:21
EN: Big bull body here, decent bull bar here.
ZH: 尤其是它的体积很大，后面的阳线也都不错
20:21 - 20:23
EN: This is a very strong breakout above this high.
ZH: 这是非常强势的突破
20:24 - 20:30
EN: The probability is more than 50% for the bulls
ZH: 这种情况下，多头的概率超过50%
20:28 - 20:30
EN: when you have a breakout that looks this strong.
ZH: 这种情况下，多头的概率超过50%
20:30 - 20:33
EN: Remember, I said in general if a stop is hit,
ZH: 我说过，通常情况下，如果止损被触发
20:33 - 20:40
EN: 50% chance you’ll get a swing up, 50% chance you’ll get a reversal down.
ZH: 50%的概率会形成上涨波段， 50%的概率会反转下跌
20:40 - 20:44
EN: I adjust that probability depending on market conditions.
ZH: 我会根据当下的情况调整这个概率
20:44 - 20:48
EN: Here, this is an especially strong breakout with good follow-through.
ZH: 这里，它是非常强的突破，而且有良好的跟随
20:48 - 20:53
EN: The odds are more than 50% that we’re going to get a Measured Move up.
ZH: 超过50%的概率会涨到MM目标位
20:53 - 20:57
EN: Probably about 60% that we’re going to get a Measured Move up.
ZH: 甚至大于60%的概率会涨到MM目标位
20:57 - 20:59
EN: What about here? We have a very strong bear bar.
ZH: 这里呢？这个阴线体积也很大呀？
20:59 - 21:04
EN: Is this more than a 50% chance of a successful breakout? No.
ZH: 空头成功的概率是不是也大于50%？不是
21:04 - 21:07
EN: I want to see a bear bar and a follow-through bar.
ZH: 我想看到阴线之后有跟随K线
21:08 - 21:11
EN: When I only see the bear bar, 50% chance it’s going to fail,
ZH: 如果只是阴线跌破，50%的概率它会失败
21:11 - 21:14
EN: 50% chance you’ll get the swing down.
ZH: 50%的概率会成功，形成下跌波段
21:14 - 21:16
EN: And look at the follow-through bar.
ZH: 然而看看这个跟随K线
21:16 - 21:17
EN: It’s a reversal.
ZH: 反转上涨
21:17 - 21:24
EN: To me, the bear breakout is failing, especially if the market gets
ZH: 在我看来，空头突破正在失败， 尤其是当市场突破这个阳线的高点的时候——在这里
21:21 - 21:24
EN: above the high of this bull bar – which it did right here.
ZH: 在我看来，空头突破正在失败， 尤其是当市场突破这个阳线的高点的时候——在这里
21:31 - 21:33
EN: Very strong leg up.
ZH: 非常强的一段上涨
21:33 - 21:37
EN: Chances are the first reversal down, bulls and bears will buy,
ZH: 第1次回调的时候，多头和空头都会买入
21:37 - 21:39
EN: and there’ll be at least one more leg up.
ZH: 所以至少会有第2段甚至
21:40 - 21:45
EN: The bulls buy because some bulls did not buy until after they saw the breakout,
ZH: 多头当然会买入，因为一些多头会等待明确的突破再买入
21:45 - 21:49
EN: and then once they saw the breakout, they had to get long,
ZH: 一旦他们看到强势突破，就会在回调时买入
21:48 - 21:49
EN: and they look for a pullback.
ZH: 一旦他们看到强势突破，就会在回调时买入
21:49 - 21:52
EN: They’ll buy above the bull bar and get long.
ZH: 他们会在阳线上方买入做多
21:53 - 21:59
EN: Some bears held and sold more at this high, and once we’ve had this breakout,
ZH: 一些空头会继续持有，并且在这个高点加仓卖出更多， 然而一旦出现了这样的突破，
21:59 - 22:03
EN: they look at this and say, “Well, that’s really too strong.
ZH: 空头就意识到：“不行，多头太强了，我不能再做空了。”
22:02 - 22:08
EN: I cannot be short,” and they wait for any kind of a reversal down,
ZH: 空头就意识到：“不行，多头太强了，我不能再做空了。” 所以一旦有一些下跌回调，空头就买回他们的空单
22:06 - 22:08
EN: and then they buy back their shorts.
ZH: 所以一旦有一些下跌回调，空头就买回他们的空单
22:09 - 22:12
EN: They’re hoping to get out with a slightly smaller loss,
ZH: 他们希望少亏一些离场
22:12 - 22:15
EN: so they look for the pullback and then they buy.
ZH: 所以等着在回调下跌的时候买入
22:15 - 22:19
EN: And the result is the bears are buying to exit and the bulls are buying
ZH: 所以空头买入回补（离场），多头买入（入场），
22:19 - 22:22
EN: expecting a Measured Move up, and you get a strong breakout.
ZH: 押注会有向上的MM，于是再次强势突破
Slide 009
Time: 22:25
Bilingual Transcript
22:30 - 22:34
EN: Whenever a Head and Shoulders Top is forming, the bears see a reversal pattern
ZH: 每当出现一个头肩顶的结构， 空头看到的是反转的机会
22:34 - 22:38
EN: (a Head and Shoulders Top) and the bulls see a Trading Range.
ZH: 而多头看到的是震荡区间
22:38 - 22:39
EN: They hope it’s a bull flag.
ZH: 他们希望这是一个牛旗
22:40 - 22:42
EN: They can call it a Triangle, as I said.
ZH: 可以把它看作是三角形
22:42 - 22:44
EN: They can call it a Wedge bull flag.
ZH: 也可以看作楔形牛旗
22:44 - 22:47
EN: They can call it two legs down to a High 2 bull flag.
ZH: 可以说它是两段回调、高2牛旗
22:47 - 22:48
EN: It doesn’t matter.
ZH: 本质没有区别
22:48 - 22:50
EN: The bulls see a bull flag.
ZH: 多头希望它是牛旗
22:51 - 22:54
EN: Again, we reversed down.
ZH: 再讲一遍，下跌
22:54 - 22:56
EN: We reversed down a second time.
ZH: 第2次下跌
22:56 - 22:58
EN: We reversed down a third time.
ZH: 第3次下跌
22:58 - 23:00
EN: That’s three pushes down, and that’s a Wedge,
ZH: 3次向下推动，所以是楔形
23:00 - 23:02
EN: even though it does not have a Wedge shape.
ZH: 尽管它看上去没有楔形的形状
23:02 - 23:06
EN: If this whole pattern was tilted down a little bit more,
ZH: 如果整个结构向下倾斜一些
23:06 - 23:09
EN: if this low was a little bit lower, then traders would say
ZH: 如果这个低点更低一些，那么交易者会说：
23:09 - 23:14
EN: “Oh, it’s clearly a Wedge bull flag.” However, it does not matter.
ZH: “哦！这肯定是一个楔形牛旗！”然而，这并不重要
23:14 - 23:15
EN: The forces are the same.
ZH: 本质是一样的
23:15 - 23:19
EN: The shape may not be perfect, but the forces are the same.
ZH: 形状可能不完美，但作用是相同的
23:19 - 23:21
EN: It’s a Wedge bull flag.
ZH: 这是一个楔形牛旗
23:22 - 23:26
EN: Also remember, the market tends to transition.
ZH: 另外要知道的是，市场往往要过渡
23:26 - 23:28
EN: It does not go from bull trend to bear trend.
ZH: 它不会从上涨趋势直接变为下降趋势
23:28 - 23:31
EN: It usually has to go from bull trend to Trading Range,
ZH: 它通常必须先从上涨趋势过渡到震荡区间
23:31 - 23:36
EN: and the beginning of a bear trend often comes before the end of the bull trend.
ZH: 而且下降趋势往往在上涨趋势结束之前就开始了
23:36 - 23:40
EN: The beginning of a Trading Range often comes before the end of the bull trend.
ZH: 震荡区间往往在上涨趋势结束之前就开始了
23:43 - 23:46
EN: You can draw it like this and call it a Wedge bull flag.
ZH: 你可以这样画，把它看作是楔形牛旗
23:47 - 23:50
EN: Three pushes down, this low slightly below that low,
ZH: 3次向下推动，这个低点略低于那个低点
23:50 - 23:56
EN: this low further below, and then we have a strong reversal up
ZH: 这个低点更低；在跌破失败之后，强势反转上涨
23:54 - 23:56
EN: from the breakout below the Wedge bull flag.
ZH: 这个低点更低；在跌破失败之后，强势反转上涨
24:00 - 24:03
EN: Some bulls will buy above this bar.
ZH: 一些多头会在这根K线上方买入
24:03 - 24:07
EN: They see the strong reversal up from the breakout below the bottom,
ZH: 他们看到价格从下方强势反转上涨，
24:07 - 24:11
EN: and they see this as a pullback from this reversal up.
ZH: 所以把它看作是大阳线之后的回调
24:12 - 24:14
EN: It’s also about a 50% pullback.
ZH: 而且它大约是50%回调。
24:14 - 24:17
EN: We pulled back about 50%, and now we’re starting to resume up.
ZH: 回调了50%，现在开始恢复上涨
24:17 - 24:20
EN: They’ll place a stop to buy above the high of the prior bar.
ZH: 他们会在前1根K线的高点上方挂突破单买入
24:20 - 24:23
EN: Other bulls will buy above the high of this bar
ZH: 一些多头会在这根K线的高点上方买入
24:23 - 24:26
EN: or above the high of the 2-bar reversal.
ZH: 或者在双K反转的最高点上方买入
24:35 - 24:36
EN: This is interesting.
ZH: 这很有趣
24:36 - 24:39
EN: This big bull bar is a buy signal bar.
ZH: 这个大阳线当然是做多信号K线
24:39 - 24:44
EN: Some bulls look at this and say, “Well, we’ve been sideways for 6 or 7 bars,
ZH: 然而一些多头会这样想：“额… 已经横盘了6~7根K线了
24:44 - 24:49
EN: we’ve been sideways here for 20 bars, and therefore the chance
ZH: 算上之前，已经横盘了20根K线，
24:49 - 24:52
EN: of a successful breakout above the high of that bar is less.
ZH: 所以成功突破这根K线高点的概率不大
24:52 - 24:55
EN: In addition, if I buy above the high of this bar,
ZH: 此外，如果我在这根K线的高点上方买入
24:55 - 24:59
EN: my stop is very far away, so my risk is greater.
ZH: 止损比较远，所以风险更大
24:59 - 25:03
EN: Therefore, it’s a low probability buy with big risk
ZH: 所以，做多胜率低、风险高，
25:03 - 25:06
EN: - probably sellers above the high of this bar.”
ZH: 这根K线的高点上方很可能有很多卖盘
25:06 - 25:08
EN: Some bulls will not look to buy above the high of this bar.
ZH: 所以一些多头不会立刻在这根K线的高点上方买入
25:08 - 25:13
EN: Instead, they’ll look to buy a pullback, looking for a resumption up.
ZH: 而是等回调的时候买入，期待上涨会恢复
25:14 - 25:17
EN: For example, they’ll look to buy with a limit order 50% down,
ZH: 比如，他们会把限价买单挂在50%回调的地方
25:17 - 25:23
EN: or above the high of the prior bar once the market pulled back about 50%.
ZH: 或者当市场回调了大约50%之后， 在前1根K线的高点上方买入
Slide 010
Time: 25:25
Bilingual Transcript
25:28 - 25:35
EN: We have a bear trend and we have a potential left shoulder, head,
ZH: 下降趋势，有一个潜在的左肩，头，和潜在的右肩
25:33 - 25:40
EN: and a potential right shoulder, and the right shoulder subdivided
ZH: 下降趋势，有一个潜在的左肩，头，和潜在的右肩 右肩可以细分为一个更小的头肩底——左肩，头，右肩
25:36 - 25:40
EN: into a smaller Head and Shoulders Bottom – left shoulder, head, right shoulder.
ZH: 右肩可以细分为一个更小的头肩底——左肩，头，右肩
25:41 - 25:45
EN: Bulls will buy a resumption up here, they’ll buy resumption up here,
ZH: 多头会在这里和这里买入
25:45 - 25:48
EN: taking a chance that we’re going to get a trend reversal.
ZH: 押注趋势反转上涨的可能性
25:48 - 25:51
EN: At this point we’ve been sideways for about 40 or 50 bars.
ZH: 此时已经横盘了大约40或50根K线
25:51 - 25:56
EN: Close to a 50% chance that we’ll get a trend reversal up
ZH: 50%的概率会反转上涨
25:56 - 26:00
EN: versus 50% chance trend resumption down.
ZH: 50%的概率会继续下跌
26:00 - 26:04
EN: Decent Buying Pressure here, but not much Buying Pressure here.
ZH: 这里有不错的买压，但这里买压不大
26:04 - 26:08
EN: I think there’s probably greater than a 50% chance
ZH: 我认为继续下跌的概率不止50%，但也高不了多少
26:07 - 26:14
EN: that we’ll get trend resumption down, but it’s fairly close to a 50% chance
ZH: 我认为继续下跌的概率不止50%，但也高不了多少 反转上涨的概率已经很接近50%
26:11 - 26:14
EN: that the bulls will get an attempt at a trend reversal up.
ZH: 反转上涨的概率已经很接近50%
26:15 - 26:22
EN: It’s a reasonable buy, either above this bull bar
ZH: 这些是合理的买点，无论是在它 还是它，还是它的上方买入
26:19 - 26:22
EN: or above that bar or above this bull bar.
ZH: 这些是合理的买点，无论是在它 还是它，还是它的上方买入
26:22 - 26:24
EN: A nested Head and Shoulders Bottom.
ZH: 嵌套式的头肩底
26:24 - 26:29
EN: 40% chance you’re going to get a swing up, 60% chance you will not.
ZH: 40%的概率会形成上涨波段，60%的概率不会
26:29 - 26:34
EN: 60% chance you’ll either continue sideways or the bear trend will resume down.
ZH: 60%的概率要么继续横盘，要么下降趋势会恢复
26:37 - 26:42
EN: Traders who took this buy, they’re buying in a Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 在这里做多的交易者，他们买在窄震荡区间里面
26:43 - 26:46
EN: They’ll put a stop below the low, and they’ll get out here.
ZH: 他们会把止损放在这个低点下方，在这里被止损离场
26:47 - 26:50
EN: Whenever you have a reasonable stop and the stop gets hit,
ZH: 当一个合理的止损被打到，
26:51 - 26:57
EN: 50% chance the market will continue down, 50% chance it will reverse up again.
ZH: 50%的概率市场会继续下跌， 50%的概率它会再次反转上涨
27:02 - 27:07
EN: Bears sell, expecting the market is resuming down
ZH: 空头卖出做空，预期市场恢复下跌
27:08 - 27:12
EN: - strong enough down the bulls will probably not buy above this bull bar.
ZH: 下跌足够强势，多头不会急着在这个阳线上方买入
27:12 - 27:17
EN: They’ll wait for a second attempt to reverse up – for example, here or here.
ZH: 他们会等待第2次反转上涨的尝试—— 比如在这里或这里
27:24 - 27:28
EN: The bulls who bought here or here were expecting a Higher Low
ZH: 在这里或这里买入的多头，预期低点可以抬高
27:28 - 27:31
EN: and then a series of Higher Lows and Higher Highs.
ZH: 并且之后有一系列抬高的高点和低点
27:31 - 27:33
EN: They were expecting a bull trend.
ZH: 他们预期会有一个上涨趋势
27:33 - 27:36
EN: If the market falls below a significant Higher Low,
ZH: 如果市场跌破了一个重要的低点
27:36 - 27:39
EN: then their premise is no longer valid.
ZH: 那么他们的前提就不再有效
27:39 - 27:41
EN: Then the market is either still in a Trading Range,
ZH: 市场要么仍处于震荡区间
27:41 - 27:44
EN: or the bear trend is resuming.
ZH: 要么下降趋势恢复
27:44 - 27:47
EN: And therefore, their premise of a bull trend is wrong,
ZH: 因此，当他们发现上涨趋势前提不再成立，
27:47 - 27:51
EN: and they get out below a significant Higher Low, like here.
ZH: 他们就会在重要的低点下方止损离场，比如这里
27:51 - 27:53
EN: Here we have a pretty good reversal up.
ZH: 这根阳线相当不错
27:53 - 27:55
EN: We have a Higher Low here.
ZH: 这里的低点抬高了
27:55 - 27:59
EN: A lot of the bulls will give up either below here or here.
ZH: 很多多头会在这里，或这里下方放弃
Slide 011
Time: 28:05
Bilingual Transcript
28:06 - 28:11
EN: When a stop is hit, 50% probability for the bulls and the bears.
ZH: 当止损被打到时，多空双方的概率是50对50
28:11 - 28:16
EN: 50% chance the bear breakout will fail, and you’ll get a reversal up.
ZH: 50%的概率空头突破会失败，然后反转上涨
28:16 - 28:19
EN: Remember, this is a breakout below a small Trading Range
ZH: 要知道，这是在尝试跌破这个小的震荡区间
28:19 - 28:22
EN: and it’s an attempt to break out below a big Trading Range.
ZH: 同时也是在尝试跌破这个大的震荡区间
28:23 - 28:28
EN: 50% chance the breakout will be successful for the bears
ZH: 50%的概率，空头突破会成功，然后跌到MM目标位
28:26 - 28:28
EN: and they’ll get a Measured Move down.
ZH: 50%的概率，空头突破会成功，然后跌到MM目标位
28:33 - 28:36
EN: Head and Shoulders Bottom – left shoulder, head, right shoulder.
ZH: 头肩底——左肩，头，右肩
28:36 - 28:39
EN: Head and Shoulders Bottoms are also Triangles.
ZH: 头肩底也是三角形
28:39 - 28:44
EN: There are three pushes up from the left shoulder,
ZH: 左肩、头、右肩分别有3次向上推动
28:42 - 28:44
EN: from the head, from the right shoulder.
ZH: 左肩、头、右肩分别有3次向上推动
28:44 - 28:47
EN: It’s a BreakOut Mode pattern, and here we’re getting a bear breakout.
ZH: 这是一个突破模式，最终在这里向下突破
28:47 - 28:49
EN: 4 consecutive bear bars.
ZH: 连续4根阴线
28:51 - 28:54
EN: The bears see it as a Triangle in a bear trend,
ZH: 空头把它看作下降趋势中的三角形
28:54 - 28:56
EN: and they’re expecting trend resumption down.
ZH: 他们期待趋势继续下跌
28:57 - 29:02
EN: However, a Triangle in a bear trend often becomes a final bear flag.
ZH: 然而，下降趋势中的三角形往往是末端熊旗
29:02 - 29:07
EN: If the bears do get their breakout, traders will look to buy a reversal up,
ZH: 在空头向下突破后，交易者会找机会买入做反转
29:07 - 29:11
EN: expecting the market to come back to the apex of that Triangle.
ZH: 预期价格回测那个三角形的顶点
29:17 - 29:19
EN: Very Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 非常窄的下降通道
29:19 - 29:21
EN: Strong reversal up.
ZH: 强势反转上涨
29:21 - 29:26
EN: Because it’s a very Tight Bear Channel, the first reversal up is probably minor,
ZH: 因为这是一个非常窄的下降通道， 第1次上涨大概率是小反转
29:26 - 29:33
EN: and it probably will lead either to a bear flag and a resumption
ZH: 更有可能变成熊旗或震荡区间，就像这里一样
29:30 - 29:33
EN: of the bear trend or a Trading Range, as it did here.
ZH: 更有可能变成熊旗或震荡区间，就像这里一样
29:35 - 29:37
EN: Big down, big up, big confusion.
ZH: 大涨、大跌、造成大的困惑
29:37 - 29:38
EN: Sideways likely.
ZH: 横盘震荡
29:38 - 29:42
EN: However, a lot of bulls will buy this second reversal up,
ZH: 然而，很多多头会在第2次反转上涨时买入
29:42 - 29:46
EN: thinking that we have a Tight Trading Range here (a magnet),
ZH: 因为前期这里有一个窄震荡区间（磁铁）
29:46 - 29:51
EN: we have a strong reversal up, and now we have a second entry buy.
ZH: 第1次的反弹很强势，现在有了第2做多入场点
29:51 - 29:53
EN: This is a type of a Double Bottom.
ZH: 这是一种双底
29:53 - 29:55
EN: It’s a slightly Higher Low.
ZH: 低点略微抬高
29:55 - 30:00
EN: It’s probably a minor reversal because the pattern does not have many bars.
ZH: 这大概率只是小反转，因为没有足够多的K线
30:00 - 30:03
EN: We rallied only 3 bars, we sold off only 3 bars.
ZH: 只是反弹了3根K线，又下跌了3根K线
30:03 - 30:07
EN: Probably a minor reversal into a Trading Range; however,
ZH: 大概率只是小反转，进入震荡区间；
30:07 - 30:11
EN: the context is good for a move back up to this Tight Trading Range,
ZH: 然而背景支持市场反弹回测这个窄震荡区间
30:11 - 30:13
EN: maybe to the top of the Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 也许能反弹到窄震荡区间的上沿
30:13 - 30:16
EN: And therefore, it’s a reasonable buy.
ZH: 因此，这是一个合理的买点
30:20 - 30:23
EN: Higher probability? Buy after you see the breakout.
ZH: 想要更高胜率的话，看到突破之后再买
30:23 - 30:26
EN: Traders are suspecting that a reversal is underway,
ZH: 交易者认为反转正在发生
30:26 - 30:29
EN: and now we have a very big bull bar.
ZH: 现在出现了这么大的大阳线
30:29 - 30:32
EN: Probably at least a small second leg up, here or here.
ZH: 至少会有小的第2段上涨，像这里，或这里
30:32 - 30:36
EN: It’s a high probability bet that the market will go
ZH: 这是高胜率的买点，押注市场至少会再上涨一些
30:36 - 30:39
EN: at least a little higher, maybe to the top of the Triangle.
ZH: 也许一直到三角形的最高点
Slide 012
Time: 30:45
Bilingual Transcript
30:45 - 30:49
EN: In this video, I made the point that markets resist change.
ZH: 这节课，我主要讲了市场是抗拒变化的
30:49 - 30:54
EN: Trends are constantly trying to reverse, and the trend usually continues.
ZH: 趋势不断尝试反转，但通常会继续
30:54 - 30:56
EN: Trading Ranges are constantly trying to break out,
ZH: 震荡区间不断尝试突破
30:56 - 30:59
EN: yet the breakouts typically fail.
ZH: 然而，突破通常会失败
30:59 - 31:03
EN: Head and Shoulders Tops, Head and Shoulders Bottoms, they are Trading Ranges
ZH: 头肩顶，头肩底，它们都是震荡区间
31:03 - 31:07
EN: and therefore they are not high probability breakout setups
ZH: 因此它们不是高概率的突破机会
31:07 - 31:11
EN: - yet 40% of the time, you get a swing trade,
ZH: 然而40%的时间，你可以赚到一个波段，
31:11 - 31:14
EN: and that more than offsets the low probability.
ZH: 利润足以弥补胜率的不足
31:15 - 31:18
EN: I also talked about what happens when a stop is hit.
ZH: 我还讲了止损被触发之后会发生什么
31:18 - 31:22
EN: If you are in a trade and you have a logical location for the stop
ZH: 如果一个合理的止损被打到了，
31:22 - 31:34
EN: and the stop gets hit, 50% chance when the stop gets hit,
ZH: 50%的概率突破是成功的 50%的概率突破失败，市场回到你原本的方向
31:27 - 31:34
EN: you’re in the start of an opposite trend.
ZH: 50%的概率突破失败，市场回到你原本的方向
31:29 - 31:34
EN: 50% chance the market will again reverse in your original direction.
ZH: 50%的概率突破失败，市场回到你原本的方向
31:38 - 31:40
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
31:40 - 31:43
EN: This is the second of two videos on Head and Shoulders patterns.
ZH: 头肩顶的两节课，到这里就全部讲完了
31:43 - 31:46
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程