al-brooks-course
31B - Swing Trading and Scalping
Raw transcript and slide notes for 31B - Swing Trading and Scalping.
Overview
- Slides: 14
- Transcript segments: 340
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:10
EN: This is the second of four videos on swing trading and scalping.
ZH: 这是波段交易和剥头皮交易的第2节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:11
Bilingual Transcript
00:12 - 00:20
EN: In this video, I want to focus on the importance of going for a reward
ZH: 这节课，我想重点强调波段交易中追求两倍盈亏比的重要性
00:16 - 00:20
EN: that is at least twice as big as your risk when you’re swing trading.
ZH: 这节课，我想重点强调波段交易中追求两倍盈亏比的重要性
Slide 002
Time: 00:22
Bilingual Transcript
00:25 - 00:29
EN: For example, here’s that British pound versus the dollar 5-minute chart,
ZH: 例如，这是英镑兑美元的5分钟K线图
00:29 - 00:33
EN: and you have a breakout bear here and a follow-through bar here.
ZH: 大阳线突破，并且有跟随的阳线
00:33 - 00:35
EN: It’s reasonable to buy that close.
ZH: 在它的收盘买入做多是合理的
00:37 - 00:43
EN: If your stop is 1 pip below the bottom of the breakout, you’re risking 29 pips.
ZH: 如果把止损放在突破起涨点的下方1个pip， 你的风险一共是29 pips
00:46 - 00:49
EN: If your reward is 60 pips or more – in other words,
ZH: 如果你的利润是60 pips或更多——换句话说，
00:49 - 00:52
EN: twice the risk – the trade is a swing trade.
ZH: 是风险的两倍——那么这就是一笔波段交易
00:52 - 00:58
EN: If you’re going for a reward that is less than 60 pips, you could call it a scalp.
ZH: 如果你追求的利润小于60 pips， 你可以说它是剥头皮交易
01:00 - 01:03
EN: Stop 1 pip below, and you bought that close.
ZH: 止损设置在下方1个pip，在它的收盘买入
01:03 - 01:05
EN: This is one times your risk.
ZH: 这里是1倍风险
01:06 - 01:08
EN: If you exit here, it’s a scalp.
ZH: 如果你在这里离场，就是剥头皮
01:08 - 01:10
EN: Here’s two times your risk.
ZH: 这里是2倍风险
01:10 - 01:12
EN: If you exit here, it’s still a scalp.
ZH: 如果你在这里离场，仍然是剥头皮交易
01:12 - 01:16
EN: You did not allow a pullback; you exited on the first pullback,
ZH: 你没有经历回调；你在第1次回调时就离场了
01:16 - 01:19
EN: and you’re going for a reward that is less than twice your risk.
ZH: 而且最终利润小于风险的两倍
01:22 - 01:32
EN: On the other hand, if you exited up here – possible Parabolic Wedge,
ZH: 然而，如果你在这里离场——潜在的抛物线楔形 1，2，3或1，2，3，并且在一个小的抢购高潮之后
01:26 - 01:32
EN: one, two, three or one, two, three, and you have a bear bar closing on its low
ZH: 然而，如果你在这里离场——潜在的抛物线楔形 1，2，3或1，2，3，并且在一个小的抢购高潮之后
01:32 - 01:37
EN: after a small Buy Climax – you would be exiting with 80 pips profit.
ZH: 有阴线收在最低——最终你赚了80 pips离场
01:38 - 01:40
EN: Your initial risk was 29 pips.
ZH: 你的初始风险是29 pips
01:40 - 01:43
EN: Two times your initial risk is 58 pips,
ZH: 初始风险的两倍是58 pips
01:43 - 01:47
EN: and this is more than 58 pips, more than two times your risk.
ZH: 而这超过了58 pips，超过了风险的两倍
01:47 - 01:48
EN: To me, that’s a swing trade.
ZH: 在我看来，这是一笔波段交易
01:48 - 01:52
EN: Plus, you exited with two legs up – one, pullback, two
ZH: 另外，你在上涨两段后离场——1，回调，2
01:52 - 01:54
EN: - and you held on for more than 10 bars.
ZH: ——你的持仓时间超过了10根K线
01:54 - 01:55
EN: You held on for about 20 bars.
ZH: 持有了大约20根K线
01:55 - 02:00
EN: Most swing traders hope to get trades that last 20 or more bars,
ZH: 大多数波段交易者希望趋势可以持续20根或更多K线，
02:00 - 02:03
EN: but their minimum goal is 10 bars and two legs.
ZH: 但他们的最低目标是10根K线、两段
02:05 - 02:08
EN: This is a 60-minute chart of the British pound versus the dollar.
ZH: 这是英镑兑美元的60分钟K线图
Slide 003
Time: 02:05
Bilingual Transcript
02:12 - 02:19
EN: In general, on a 60-minute chart, if you’re going for a trade
ZH: 通常来说，在60分钟图上， 如果一笔交易小于50 pips，我就认为它是剥头皮
02:16 - 02:19
EN: that’s less than 50 pips, I call it a scalp.
ZH: 如果一笔交易小于50 pips，我就认为它是剥头皮
02:19 - 02:21
EN: On a 5- or a 15-minute chart,
ZH: 在5分钟或15分钟的K线图上，
02:21 - 02:25
EN: I call a scalp anything that is between 10 and 40 pips.
ZH: 10~40 pips 的交易是剥头皮交易
02:25 - 02:29
EN: Anything more than that is a swing trade or simply a trade.
ZH: 超过这个范围的交易是波段交易
02:29 - 02:33
EN: Again, a swing trade has at least 10 bars and two legs.
ZH: 同样，波段交易的最低目标是至少10根K线、两段
02:33 - 02:36
EN: Usually a trader is going for at least 20 bars.
ZH: 交易者通常会争取至少20根K线
02:38 - 02:42
EN: Here we have 3 very big bear trend bars, and you can call it a Wedge
ZH: 这里有3根非常大的阴线，你可以说它是楔形顶——
02:42 - 02:45
EN: - one, two, three – at the top of a Broad Bull Channel.
ZH: 1，2，3——在宽上涨通道的上沿
02:45 - 02:50
EN: You could also call it a Wedge – one, two, three or one, two, three.
ZH: 你也可以这样看楔形——1，2，3或1，2，3
02:50 - 02:55
EN: In any case, strong reversal down, and we’re closing below a lot of bars.
ZH: 总之，它是强势的反转下跌，收盘低于前期很多K线的最低点
02:55 - 02:58
EN: This is probably the start of a swing trade down.
ZH: 这很可能是一个下跌波段的开始
02:58 - 03:01
EN: 3 consecutive big bear bars closing near their lows,
ZH: 连续3根大阴线收在低位
03:01 - 03:04
EN: strong bear breakout, good context.
ZH: 强势的空头突破，良好的背景
03:04 - 03:08
EN: The odds are high that you’re going to get at least a Measured Move down.
ZH: 非常高的概率会跌到MM目标位——
03:08 - 03:13
EN: High odds mean at least 60% chance that you’ll get a Measured Move down.
ZH: 至少60%的概率会跌到MM目标位
03:13 - 03:16
EN: It’s reasonable to sell that close,
ZH: 在它的收盘开仓做空是合理的
03:18 - 03:27
EN: putting a stop above the top
ZH: 把止损放在下跌波段的起跌点上方， 或者放在3根大阴线的上方，然后在这里止盈
03:20 - 03:27
EN: of the bear leg or above the top of this 3 bar Sell Climax,
ZH: 把止损放在下跌波段的起跌点上方， 或者放在3根大阴线的上方，然后在这里止盈
03:25 - 03:27
EN: and you take profits down here.
ZH: 把止损放在下跌波段的起跌点上方， 或者放在3根大阴线的上方，然后在这里止盈
03:27 - 03:32
EN: This is 90 pips below your entry price, and therefore it’s a swing trade
ZH: 利润一共是90 pips，因此这是一笔波段交易
03:32 - 03:34
EN: - or you could simply call it a trade.
ZH: 或者就说这是一笔交易 （注：上期有提到，外汇交易中通常不做区分）
03:34 - 03:36
EN: Also, it lasted more than 10 bars
ZH: 此外，它持续了超过10根K线
03:36 - 03:39
EN: and it had at least two legs – one, pullback, two.
ZH: 并且有至少两段——1，反弹，2
03:42 - 03:44
EN: Scalpers hate pullbacks.
ZH: 剥头皮交易者讨厌回调（利润回撤）
03:44 - 03:47
EN: Sometimes they’ll hold through what they think will be a minor pullback,
ZH: 有时在小回调的时候他们也会继续持有，
Slide 004
Time: 03:45
Bilingual Transcript
03:47 - 03:50
EN: but in general they don’t want reversals.
ZH: 但通常他们不希望出现任何反转
03:50 - 03:51
EN: They don’t want pullbacks.
ZH: 他们不希望有回调
03:56 - 04:02
EN: Let’s say you buy here, around a 50% pullback of this Buy Climax, this breakout.
ZH: 假设你在这里买入—— 大约是这个抢购高潮和突破的50%回调附近
04:02 - 04:04
EN: Two legs down, one, pullback, two.
ZH: 两段下跌——1，反弹，2
04:04 - 04:05
EN: You can also call it a Wedge.
ZH: 你也可以说它是楔形
04:05 - 04:10
EN: There’s a bear bar, a doji bar, a big bear, a doji bar, and then another low here.
ZH: 阴线、十字星；大阴线、十字星；然后再下跌
04:11 - 04:14
EN: Let’s say a trader bought above the high of this bar,
ZH: 假设一个交易者在这根K线的高点上方买入
04:14 - 04:18
EN: hoping for a Wedge reversal up, and he put his stop just below.
ZH: 押注楔形底反转上涨，并把止损放在下方
04:18 - 04:22
EN: Very small risk, but you can call it a High 2 bull flag, a Wedge bull flag.
ZH: 风险非常小，你可以说它是高2牛旗，或楔形牛旗
04:22 - 04:25
EN: Whenever you’re trading with a very small risk,
ZH: 如果一笔交易的风险非常小
04:25 - 04:28
EN: you in general have a low probability of success.
ZH: 那么通常成功的概率很低
04:28 - 04:31
EN: I think it’s reasonable to take this buy for a scalp.
ZH: 我认为在这里买入做剥头皮是合理的
04:31 - 04:33
EN: The risk is very small.
ZH: 风险非常小
04:36 - 04:40
EN: If you did buy above this bar, you got filled here, stop down here.
ZH: 如果你在这根K线的高点上方买入，突破买单在这里成交，止损在这里
04:40 - 04:42
EN: You have dojis here.
ZH: 这里有一些十字星
04:42 - 04:43
EN: Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 窄震荡区间
04:43 - 04:47
EN: Maybe you’ll allow the pullback, hoping for a little bit more up.
ZH: 也许你愿意经历回调，希望再稍微上涨一些
04:48 - 04:54
EN: Most bulls who did buy above this bar or above this bar will not exit.
ZH: 大多数在这根K线高点上方买入的多头不会离场
04:54 - 04:59
EN: They’ll probably either rely on a stop here or possibly a stop down here.
ZH: 他们会依赖这里的止损，或这里的止损
05:02 - 05:07
EN: The market got up and tested a prior Lower High and reversed down,
ZH: 市场上涨并测试了前期的高点，然后反转下跌
05:07 - 05:09
EN: reversed down below there.
ZH: ——在碰到之前就有尝试反转
05:09 - 05:13
EN: At this point, a lot of bulls will exit either below that bear bar
ZH: 此时，很多多头会在那个阴线下方离场
05:13 - 05:18
EN: or a second entry short below that bear bar, because they’d be concerned
ZH: 或者在那个阴线下方离场， 因为这是空头的第2做空入场点，
05:18 - 05:21
EN: about a Double Top Lower High and a reversal down.
ZH: 多头担心这是高点降低的双顶，可能会反转下跌
05:22 - 05:27
EN: The bulls who buy here who did not exit here now have a second reverse down,
ZH: 在这里买入，在这里没有离场的多头， 现在看到了第2次反转下跌，
05:27 - 05:30
EN: so Low 1, Low 2, and a bear bar.
ZH: 所以是低1、低2，还有一根阴线
05:30 - 05:33
EN: A lot of those bulls will exit here for a scalp.
ZH: 很多多头会在这里赚小钱离场
05:35 - 05:37
EN: Another example.
ZH: 另一个例子
05:37 - 05:39
EN: Bear bar, bull bar, bear bar, bull bar.
ZH: 阴线，阳线，阴线，阳线
05:39 - 05:41
EN: So two legs down, one, two.
ZH: 所以是两段下跌——1，2
05:41 - 05:45
EN: If you want, you can call it a High 2 bull flag – High 1, High 2
ZH: 你也可以说它是高2牛旗——高1，高2
05:45 - 05:49
EN: - or one push down, two pushes down, High 2.
ZH: ——或者第1段下跌，第2段下跌，高2
05:49 - 05:54
EN: You can even call it a Wedge – one, pullback, two, pullback, three.
ZH: 你甚至可以说它是楔形——1，反弹，2，反弹，3
05:54 - 05:54
EN: Doesn’t matter.
ZH: 都可以
05:54 - 05:57
EN: It’s a Tight Trading Range after a strong bull breakout.
ZH: 这是多头强势突破之后的窄震荡区间
05:57 - 05:59
EN: It’s a reasonable buy.
ZH: 这是一个合理的买点
05:59 - 06:00
EN: You have a good buy signal bar.
ZH: 有不错的做多信号K线
06:01 - 06:04
EN: You can buy above that high for a scalp, put a stop just below.
ZH: 你可以在那个高点上方买入，止损就放在下方， 做剥头皮交易
06:06 - 06:11
EN: You have a small pullback, but you’re still in a Tight Trading Range
ZH: 有小幅回调，但仍然在窄震荡区间内，并且没有打到你的止损
06:09 - 06:11
EN: and it did not hit your stop.
ZH: 有小幅回调，但仍然在窄震荡区间内，并且没有打到你的止损
06:11 - 06:14
EN: Most bulls would hold long and rely on their stop.
ZH: 大多数多头会继续持有，并依赖他们的止损
06:16 - 06:20
EN: Maybe they hold long after this breakout, despite this pullback.
ZH: 也许他们会在突破后持有，尽管这里有回调
06:20 - 06:23
EN: A lot would exit below this second reversal down,
ZH: 很多人会在第2次反转下跌的时候离场
06:23 - 06:26
EN: but many would hold and get out up here.
ZH: 但很多人会继续持有，直到这里再离场
06:26 - 06:31
EN: A big bull bar, a Buy Climax, and if you’re looking for a quick profit,
ZH: 大阳线，抢购高潮，如果你的目标是赚快钱，
06:31 - 06:36
EN: you’re getting a gift – a big bull bar closing on its high at a new high.
ZH: 那么这就是一个礼物——大阳线收在最高，创新高
Slide 005
Time: 06:40
Bilingual Transcript
06:44 - 06:50
EN: We have a strong bull breakout and a second leg, and then a third Buy Climax.
ZH: 强势的多头突破，第2段上涨，然后是第3个抢购高潮
06:50 - 06:56
EN: So Buy Climax, Buy Climax, Buy Climax, Buy Climax, with three highs.
ZH: 所以抢购高潮，抢购高潮，抢购高潮， 抢购高潮，有三个高点
06:56 - 07:00
EN: Possible Parabolic Wedge Top, and you have a bear bar closing on its low.
ZH: 可能是抛物线楔形顶，并且有阴线收在最低
07:01 - 07:03
EN: Some swing traders will take this short.
ZH: 一些波段交易者会做空
07:03 - 07:07
EN: Others will wait until there’s a strong bear breakout and then short.
ZH: 其他人会等看到强势的空头突破再做空
07:07 - 07:12
EN: But it’s reasonable to sell below that bear bar, and you get filled right here
ZH: 但在那个阴线下方卖出是合理的， 突破卖单会在这里成交
07:12 - 07:16
EN: and you put a stop above its high – a Parabolic Wedge Top.
ZH: 止损放在它的高点上方——抛物线楔形顶
07:21 - 07:23
EN: Strong bear breakout with 2 bars.
ZH: 两根大阴线的强势跌破
07:23 - 07:27
EN: This second bar is the follow-through bar, confirming the bear breakout.
ZH: 第2根阴线是跟随K线，确认了这个空头突破
07:27 - 07:31
EN: The odds are now high that there’ll be a second leg down.
ZH: 现在，很大的概率会有第2段下跌
07:31 - 07:34
EN: Traders will keep their stop above here – this is a major high.
ZH: 交易者会把止损放在它的上方——这是一个重要高点
07:34 - 07:37
EN: A major high, it led to a strong bear reversal.
ZH: 因为在它之后出现了强势的空头反转
07:39 - 07:44
EN: Chances are, even if we rally like this, couple legs up with decent bull bars,
ZH: 尽管有两段反弹，而且其中有一些不错的阳线，
07:44 - 07:47
EN: the market will get at least a small second leg sideways
ZH: 市场大概率还是会至少有小的第2段下跌或横盘，
07:47 - 07:50
EN: to down before it hits that stop.
ZH: 而不是先上涨打到那个止损
07:55 - 07:57
EN: This pullback went above your entry price.
ZH: 这里反弹到了你的做空入场价之上
07:57 - 08:01
EN: Remember, you sold here, and the pullback went above your entry price,
ZH: 你在这里卖出做空，反弹超过了入场价
08:01 - 08:03
EN: but it did not hit your stop.
ZH: 但没有打到你的止损
08:04 - 08:06
EN: Most bears would continue to hold short.
ZH: 大多数空头会继续持有
Slide 006
Time: 08:10
Bilingual Transcript
08:12 - 08:16
EN: However, if you did sell here and you held short even though the market
ZH: 如果你在这里卖出做空，尽管反弹超过了入场价
08:16 - 08:21
EN: went above your entry price, and then you got another strong leg down
ZH: 你仍然坚定持有，然后又有一段强势的下跌
08:21 - 08:25
EN: - bears do not want the market to come back to their entry price a second time.
ZH: ——空头不希望市场第2次回到他们的入场价
08:25 - 08:28
EN: Many bears would then move their stop to breakeven,
ZH: 所以很多空头会把止损移动到入场价 （注：最多不赚、打平离场，不愿意倒亏）
08:28 - 08:32
EN: or they’d simply put their stop above the top of this strong bear breakout
ZH: 或者他们可以直接把止损移动到这个大阴线的起点上方
08:32 - 08:34
EN: because this is a major Lower High.
ZH: 因为这是一个重要的高点
08:36 - 08:44
EN: Traders do not want the market to come back to their entry price a second time,
ZH: 再次强势下跌之后，交易者不希望市场第2次回到他们的入场价
08:41 - 08:44
EN: after there’s a second strong leg down.
ZH: 再次强势下跌之后，交易者不希望市场第2次回到他们的入场价
08:44 - 08:46
EN: First leg down, second leg down.
ZH: 第1段下跌，第2段
08:46 - 08:52
EN: And you can see, this reversal up did not get back
ZH: 可以看到，这次的反弹没有回到入场价
08:50 - 08:52
EN: to the entry price a second time.
ZH: 可以看到，这次的反弹没有回到入场价
08:55 - 09:01
EN: After the second leg down, traders either put their stop
ZH: 在第2段下跌之后，交易者要么把止损放在 下跌波段的起跌点上方
08:59 - 09:01
EN: above the top of the bear leg,
ZH: 在第2段下跌之后，交易者要么把止损放在 下跌波段的起跌点上方
09:01 - 09:04
EN: above the top of the Sell Climax, or even breakeven.
ZH: 要么放在大阴线的上方，甚至放在入场价
09:09 - 09:12
EN: Remember, a bear trend needs Lower Lows and Lower Highs.
ZH: 下降趋势需要低点和高点不断降低
09:12 - 09:18
EN: Lower Highs are more important because bears exit
ZH: 其中高点降低更重要，因为空头的止损放在重要高点的上方
09:16 - 09:18
EN: if the market goes above a major Lower High.
ZH: 其中高点降低更重要，因为空头的止损放在重要高点的上方
09:18 - 09:23
EN: If it goes above a major Lower High, then they think the bear trend has ended
ZH: 如果价格超过一个重要的高点， 那么他们就认为下降趋势已经结束，
09:23 - 09:26
EN: and the market has either evolved into a Trading Range
ZH: 市场要么变成震荡区间
09:26 - 09:29
EN: or possibly even reversed into a bull trend.
ZH: 要么甚至反转成上涨趋势
09:33 - 09:36
EN: Strong reversal up, High 2 bull flag.
ZH: 强势反转上涨，高2牛旗
09:36 - 09:40
EN: Bull trend, first leg down, pullback, second leg down.
ZH: 上涨趋势，第1段下跌，反弹，第2段
09:40 - 09:42
EN: So this is a High 2 bull flag.
ZH: 所以这是一个高2牛旗
09:42 - 09:43
EN: Strong reversal up.
ZH: 强势反转上涨
09:43 - 09:45
EN: Swing traders will hold short.
ZH: 波段交易者会继续持有
09:45 - 09:48
EN: A lot of them will hold short, relying on their stop,
ZH: 很多空头会继续持有，依赖他们的止损
09:48 - 09:52
EN: hoping that this is a Broad Bear Channel that continues down much further.
ZH: 押注这是一个宽下降通道，之后会进一步下跌
Slide 007
Time: 09:55
Bilingual Transcript
09:58 - 10:00
EN: Strong bull breakout, but bad follow-through.
ZH: 强势的多头突破，但跟随不好
10:00 - 10:02
EN: Strong bull breakout, bad follow-through.
ZH: 强势突破，跟随不好
10:02 - 10:05
EN: This might be a Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 这可能是一个宽下降通道
10:06 - 10:10
EN: Usually, even though it’s three pushes down – one, two, three
ZH: 通常，即使是3次下跌——1，2，3
10:10 - 10:14
EN: - and therefore a Wedge bull flag – bull trend, Wedge bull flag
ZH: ——因此是楔形牛旗——上涨趋势，楔形牛旗
10:15 - 10:18
EN: - with the bad follow-through, we’re probably going to get a Trading Range
ZH: ——但由于跟随不好，可能会变成震荡区间
10:18 - 10:21
EN: before an attempt at a bull trend resumption.
ZH: 而不是恢复上涨趋势
10:25 - 10:28
EN: 2 decent bull bars, bull bar closing on its high.
ZH: 两根不错的阳线，它收在最高
10:28 - 10:31
EN: It’s reasonable to buy this for a possible swing up.
ZH: 在这里买入，押注一个上涨波段是合理的
10:32 - 10:39
EN: We have a bull trend, a Wedge bull flag, a bear channel,
ZH: 上涨趋势，楔形牛旗，下降通道是牛旗， 抛售并不是那么强势
10:36 - 10:39
EN: bull flag, and the selloff is not all that strong.
ZH: 上涨趋势，楔形牛旗，下降通道是牛旗， 抛售并不是那么强势
10:39 - 10:44
EN: We have a pair of bear bars, but 5 or 6 bars up with a lot of bull bars.
ZH: 有两根阴线，但上涨了5~6根K线，其中很多阳线
10:44 - 10:47
EN: A bear bar and follow-through bar, another bull bar.
ZH: 阴线和跟随阴线，又有大阳线
10:47 - 10:50
EN: A pair of bear bars, dojis, and a big bull bar.
ZH: 两根阴线，十字星，然后大阳线
10:50 - 10:54
EN: This looks like it’ll be a bear leg in a Trading Range
ZH: 这看起来像是震荡区间中的一个下跌波段
10:54 - 10:57
EN: or a bear leg that becomes a bull flag.
ZH: 或者这段下跌是左边上涨趋势的牛旗
10:58 - 11:01
EN: Now we have a strong bear breakout that looks like it’s failing.
ZH: 现在，这里空头的强势突破，看起来正在失败
11:01 - 11:05
EN: It went above this bull bar, and then we have a second entry buy.
ZH: 它突破了这个阳线的高点（第1次反转，不做）， 然后现在是第2次做多入场点
11:05 - 11:10
EN: This is a reasonable buy for a Wedge bull flag and possibly a swing up.
ZH: 这是一个合理的买点——楔形牛旗，可能会有上涨波段
11:13 - 11:19
EN: Different ways to draw the Wedge – one, two, three or one, two, three.
ZH: 有不同的楔形——1，2，3或1，2，3
11:19 - 11:21
EN: A little bit more than a 50% pullback.
ZH: 稍微超过50%回调
11:21 - 11:25
EN: For the bulls who did buy here and who decided to hold for a swing,
ZH: 那些在这里买入并决定持有做波段的多头
11:25 - 11:29
EN: looking for a second leg up – Leg 1, pullback, Leg 2
ZH: 他们希望有两段上涨——1，回调，2
11:29 - 11:33
EN: - some of them would hold and put a stop below the bottom of the bull trend,
ZH: ——其中一些人会坚定持有， 把止损放在上涨趋势的起涨点下方
11:33 - 11:39
EN: and they’d view this strong selloff
ZH: 他们会把这次强势的抛售看作是对做多信号K线的回测
11:36 - 11:39
EN: as simply a breakout test of the buy signal bar.
ZH: 他们会把这次强势的抛售看作是对做多信号K线的回测
11:39 - 11:42
EN: Also a Micro Double Bottom and a strong buy signal bar.
ZH: 另外这里也是小双底，有不错的做多信号K
11:48 - 11:51
EN: If the bulls did buy here for a swing,
ZH: 如果多头在这里买入做波段
11:51 - 11:55
EN: this reversal down fell below their entry price.
ZH: 这里的回调跌破了他们的入场价
11:55 - 11:58
EN: However, if there’s a second strong breakout,
ZH: 然而，如果多头再次强势突破，
11:58 - 12:01
EN: the bulls do not want it to come back to their entry price a second time.
ZH: 多头不希望市场第2次回到他们的入场价
Slide 008
Time: 12:05
Bilingual Transcript
12:10 - 12:14
EN: Some bulls would exit on a second reversal down – Leg 1, Leg 2
ZH: 一些多头会在第2次反转的时候离场——1，2
12:14 - 12:18
EN: - betting that maybe we’ll be in a Trading Range instead of a bull trend.
ZH: ——市场可能处于震荡区间，而不是上涨趋势
12:19 - 12:23
EN: Remember, this bear channel might be evolving into a Trading Range.
ZH: 要知道，这个下降通道可能会变成震荡区间
12:23 - 12:25
EN: It’s big up, big down, big confusion,
ZH: 大涨，大跌，造成大的困惑
12:25 - 12:28
EN: and chances are the market’s going to go sideways.
ZH: 有很大的概率市场会横盘
12:28 - 12:31
EN: Trading Ranges often have two-legged moves – one, pullback, two.
ZH: 震荡区间中的走势通常有两段——1，回调，2
12:31 - 12:35
EN: It’s reasonable for the bulls who bought here to exit below here,
ZH: 对于在这里买入的多头来说，在它的下方离场是合理的
12:35 - 12:39
EN: thinking that it might be simply two legs up
ZH: 因为这可能只是震荡区间中的两段上涨，到这里就结束了
12:38 - 12:39
EN: in a Trading Range and the end of the rally.
ZH: 因为这可能只是震荡区间中的两段上涨，到这里就结束了
12:43 - 12:49
EN: If a trader did not exit here, he probably would exit back at his entry price
ZH: 如果一个交易者没有在这里离场， 他可能会在他的入场价打平卖出
12:49 - 12:52
EN: because we have a strong trend resumption up.
ZH: 因为在强势的上涨之后，
12:52 - 12:56
EN: He does not want the market to come back to his entry price a second time.
ZH: 他不希望市场第2次回到他的入场价
12:57 - 13:02
EN: This turned out to be a minor Lower Low, just a little bit below there,
ZH: 它最终只是一个次要的低点，比这个低点更低一些，
13:02 - 13:08
EN: but you do not want the market to come back to your entry price
ZH: 但你不希望市场在趋势恢复上涨之后第2次回到你的入场价
13:05 - 13:08
EN: a second time after it resumed up.
ZH: 但你不希望市场在趋势恢复上涨之后第2次回到你的入场价
13:08 - 13:12
EN: If you do get stopped out, it’s perfectly reasonable to buy again.
ZH: 如果你确实在这里离场了，再次买入是完全合理的
13:12 - 13:15
EN: Now we have a Double Bottom bull flag with a decent buy signal bar.
ZH: 现在有一个双底牛旗，和不错的做多信号K线
13:15 - 13:22
EN: However, most traders should get out when it hits the entry price
ZH: 大多数交易者应该在市场第2次回到入场价时离场
13:19 - 13:22
EN: a second time after the bull trend resumed.
ZH: 大多数交易者应该在市场第2次回到入场价时离场
Slide 009
Time: 13:25
Bilingual Transcript
13:30 - 13:34
EN: Again, if it comes back to your entry price a second time,
ZH: 再次强调，如果它第2次回到你的入场价
13:34 - 13:38
EN: the odds are you’re going to be in a Trading Range and not a bull trend,
ZH: 说明市场很有可能处于震荡区间，而不是上涨趋势
13:38 - 13:42
EN: and in a Trading Range, you want to be scalping, not swing trading.
ZH: 在震荡区间中，你应该做剥头皮交易，而不是波段交易
13:45 - 13:51
EN: Reasonable to get out here on the break below this low
ZH: 在这个低点下方、在入场价打平离场是合理的做法
13:48 - 13:51
EN: and the test of the original entry price.
ZH: 在这个低点下方、在入场价打平离场是合理的做法
13:53 - 13:59
EN: But if you did exit, as I said, it’s reasonable to buy again above a good bull bar
ZH: 但就像刚才提到，如果你离场了， 在一个好的阳线上方再次买入是合理的
13:59 - 14:02
EN: because now you have a Double Bottom Higher Low and possibly,
ZH: 因为现在低点抬高，有双底，
14:02 - 14:05
EN: you’ll get a breakout above the neckline and rally for a Measured Move up.
ZH: 并且可能突破颈线并涨到MM目标位
14:05 - 14:10
EN: So Double Bottom, this low, this low, and neckline here.
ZH: 所以双底——这个低点，这个低点，颈线在这里
Slide 010
Time: 14:15
Bilingual Transcript
14:16 - 14:18
EN: The market sold off again.
ZH: 市场再次抛售
14:18 - 14:21
EN: Three legs down, one, two, three.
ZH: 3段下跌——1，2，3
14:21 - 14:25
EN: Does not matter that the market went to a new high after that first leg down.
ZH: 尽管市场在第1次下跌之后又涨到了新高
14:25 - 14:30
EN: That’s common when you have a bull trend transitioning
ZH: 当市场从上涨趋势过渡到下降趋势、进入震荡区间的时候， 这种情况很常见
14:28 - 14:30
EN: either into a bear trend or a Trading Range.
ZH: 当市场从上涨趋势过渡到下降趋势、进入震荡区间的时候， 这种情况很常见
14:30 - 14:35
EN: There’s a transition period when the market is both in a bull trend
ZH: 这是一个过渡期，市场可以同时处于上涨趋势和下降趋势
14:35 - 14:38
EN: - in other words, you can keep going higher – and in an early bear trend.
ZH: 换句话说，就算市场创新高，但已经处于下降趋势的出气了
14:39 - 14:42
EN: So the bear trend often begins before the bull trend ends.
ZH: 所以下降趋势通常在上涨趋势结束前就开始了
14:43 - 14:47
EN: Three pushes down, one, two, three.
ZH: 3次向下的推动——1，2，3
14:47 - 14:49
EN: We have a Micro Double Bottom.
ZH: 有一个小双底
14:50 - 14:52
EN: We tried to go up here; we went down.
ZH: 尝试在这里反转上涨，失败；
14:52 - 14:55
EN: Tried to go up again, and we have a bigger Double Bottom with this low.
ZH: 再次尝试上涨，并且和这个低点形成了更大的双底
14:55 - 14:56
EN: This is a support area.
ZH: 这是支撑区域
14:56 - 14:59
EN: They bought here, they bought here again.
ZH: 他们在这里买入，在这里再次买入
14:59 - 15:01
EN: We’re testing that price again.
ZH: 现在又在测试那个价格
15:01 - 15:03
EN: It’s reasonable to take this buy.
ZH: 买入做多是合理的
15:03 - 15:08
EN: The buy signal bar is a doji bar, so it’s not as strong as it could be,
ZH: 做多信号K线是一个十字星，所以它不是那么的强
15:08 - 15:13
EN: but it’s still a potential Wedge bull flag and a Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 但它仍然是一个潜在的楔形牛旗和双底牛旗
15:18 - 15:21
EN: Bear trend, bull breakout.
ZH: 下降趋势，多头突破
15:21 - 15:24
EN: Double Bottom Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 低点抬高的双底大反转
15:24 - 15:29
EN: You can also call it bull trend, bear reversal to a big Double Bottom.
ZH: 你也可以说它是上涨趋势，然后回调形成一个大的双底
15:29 - 15:31
EN: Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 低点抬高的大反转
15:32 - 15:35
EN: You could also call it a big Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 你也可以说它是大双底牛旗
15:35 - 15:39
EN: You have a bull trend and then a pullback into a big Double Bottom,
ZH: 上涨趋势，然后回调形成一个大的双底
15:39 - 15:41
EN: so it’s a big High 2 buy.
ZH: 所以这是一个大的高2结构
15:41 - 15:45
EN: On a higher timeframe chart, it could simply be a few bars down.
ZH: 在更高时间周期的K线图上，可能只是下跌了几根K线
15:45 - 15:49
EN: On this timeframe, it’s 30 or 40 bars here, 30 bars here.
ZH: 在这个时间周期上，这里有30到40根K线， 这里有30根K线
15:53 - 15:56
EN: Now we have three lows – one, two, three
ZH: 现在有3个低点——1，2，3
15:56 - 15:59
EN: - and a horizontal pattern, a Trading Range.
ZH: 这是一个水平的震荡区间
15:59 - 16:05
EN: It’s also a Triangle, and traders would buy
ZH: 这也是一个三角形，在从三角形底部向上反转的时候 交易者会买入做多
16:01 - 16:05
EN: this as a reversal up from the bottom of a Triangle.
ZH: 这也是一个三角形，在从三角形底部向上反转的时候 交易者会买入做多
16:05 - 16:07
EN: Different computers see patterns differently.
ZH: 不同的计算机程序有不同的算法
16:08 - 16:11
EN: If there are many different patterns all with the same entry price,
ZH: 如果这里有很多不同的反转结构， 并且他们的入场点是同一个
16:11 - 16:15
EN: there’s a higher probability that you’ll have a profitable trade.
ZH: 反转成功、赚钱的概率就更高
16:18 - 16:20
EN: Strong bull breakout.
ZH: 强势的多头突破
16:20 - 16:22
EN: We have 4 or 5 consecutive bull bars,
ZH: 有4~5根连续的阳线
16:22 - 16:25
EN: 2 of them big bull bars closing on their highs.
ZH: 其中两根大阳线收在最高
16:27 - 16:28
EN: Strong breakout of a bear channel.
ZH: 下降通道被强势突破
16:28 - 16:32
EN: A bear channel is a bull flag, and we have a strong breakout.
ZH: 下降通道是牛旗，现在多头强势地突破了
16:35 - 16:38
EN: The market came back below the entry price.
ZH: 市场回到了入场价下方
16:38 - 16:43
EN: It’s a breakout test, a test of the top of the buy signal bar,
ZH: 这是一次突破回测——对做多信号K线的测试
16:43 - 16:45
EN: but it did not hit the stop.
ZH: 但没有碰到止损
16:45 - 16:47
EN: So traders are still holding long.
ZH: 所以多头仍然继续持有
Slide 011
Time: 16:50
Bilingual Transcript
16:54 - 16:59
EN: Strong enough breakout, this is probably now a major Higher Low.
ZH: 突破足够强势，所以它现在变成了重要的低点
16:59 - 17:01
EN: Traders do not want the market to fall below this low.
ZH: 交易者不希望这个低点被跌破
17:01 - 17:06
EN: Also, they do not want the market to come back
ZH: 另外，他们不希望市场第2次回到他们的入场价
17:04 - 17:06
EN: to their entry price a second time.
ZH: 另外，他们不希望市场第2次回到他们的入场价
17:06 - 17:11
EN: You can see the bears tried to get it here and they tried
ZH: 空头在这里和这里，两次尝试让市场第2次回到多头的入场价
17:09 - 17:11
EN: to get down to the entry price here.
ZH: 空头在这里和这里，两次尝试让市场第2次回到多头的入场价
17:11 - 17:12
EN: Both times failed.
ZH: 两次都失败了
17:13 - 17:18
EN: Many bulls, after this rally, would move their stop to breakeven
ZH: 在这段上涨之后，很多多头会把止损移动到入场价
17:18 - 17:20
EN: because if the trend is good,
ZH: 因为如果趋势足够强，
17:20 - 17:24
EN: it should not come back to that entry price a second time.
ZH: 它就不应该第2次回到入场价
17:28 - 17:36
EN: The bears tried to get a Double Top bear flag.
ZH: 空头尝试在双顶熊旗反转下跌， 一度看上去很强势
17:31 - 17:36
EN: Tried to get a strong reversal down, and as strong as the reversal down was,
ZH: 空头尝试在双顶熊旗反转下跌， 一度看上去很强势
17:36 - 17:40
EN: it failed to hit the entry price, and you can see the bears giving up on this bar
ZH: 但它没有碰到多头的入场价，最终空头在这根K线上放弃
17:40 - 17:45
EN: and the bulls becoming confident that we’d go up for at least a Measured Move.
ZH: 而多头对达到MM目标位更加有信心
17:45 - 17:47
EN: We have a Double Top and a neckline.
ZH: 双顶，颈线
17:47 - 17:50
EN: Instead of breaking below the neckline and falling for a Measured Move down,
ZH: 没有向下跌破颈线并且跌到MM目标位
17:50 - 17:52
EN: we’re breaking above the top.
ZH: 而是向上突破
17:52 - 17:54
EN: Traders expect at least a Measured Move up,
ZH: 交易者预期至少会涨到反向的MM目标位——
17:54 - 17:57
EN: from the neckline to the Double Top and then up here.
ZH: 从颈线到双顶，然后到这里
Slide 012
Time: 18:01
Bilingual Transcript
18:06 - 18:07
EN: Small trend bar.
ZH: 小的趋势K线
18:07 - 18:10
EN: Every trend bar is a breakout, every trend bar is a climax,
ZH: 每个趋势K线都是突破，也都是高潮
18:11 - 18:15
EN: and here there’s a series of trend bars – a Sell Climax, climax,
ZH: 而这里有一系列的趋势K线——抛售高潮，高潮
18:15 - 18:19
EN: Sell Climax, Sell Climax, small Sell Climax, Sell Climax.
ZH: 抛售高潮，抛售高潮，小高潮，抛售高潮
18:20 - 18:26
EN: You have consecutive Sell Climaxes, but on a higher timeframe chart – for example,
ZH: 连续的抛售高潮，但在更高时间周期的K线图上——
18:26 - 18:29
EN: if this is a 5-minute chart, if this is the 240-minute chart,
ZH: 例如，这是5分钟图，而这（小图）是240分钟图
18:29 - 18:32
EN: here’s that selloff, here’s this selloff.
ZH: 这段下跌，就对应这里的下跌
18:32 - 18:35
EN: It’s simply a test of the bottom of a Trading Range.
ZH: 这只是测试震荡区间的底部
18:35 - 18:37
EN: At this price level the market reversed up here.
ZH: 市场之前在这个价格区域反转上涨
18:37 - 18:41
EN: It came down to the price level again, reversed up.
ZH: 再次下跌到这个价格，再次上涨
18:41 - 18:44
EN: It came down to that general area, reversed up.
ZH: 跌到那个区域，反转上涨
18:44 - 18:47
EN: And this could simply be a sell vacuum test of support
ZH: 所以这可能仅仅是对支撑的真空测试
18:47 - 18:52
EN: where the bulls bought three times before – one, two, three.
ZH: 多头前期买入了3次——1，2，3
18:52 - 18:57
EN: On the 5-minute chart this looks like a very strong bear trend,
ZH: 在5分钟图上，这看起来是一个非常强的下降趋势
18:57 - 19:02
EN: but it’s consecutive Sell Climaxes, which usually result in a Trading Range
ZH: 但这是连续的抛售高潮，通常会导致变成震荡区间， 甚至反转
19:01 - 19:08
EN: or a reversal, and it’s also at the bottom
ZH: 但这是连续的抛售高潮，通常会导致变成震荡区间， 甚至反转 同时，这也是更高时间周期上震荡区间的底部
19:05 - 19:08
EN: of a big Trading Range on a higher timeframe chart.
ZH: 同时，这也是更高时间周期上震荡区间的底部
19:08 - 19:16
EN: And if you want, you can call it a Micro Wedge – three pushes down, one,
ZH: 你也可以说它是一个小楔形——3次下跌—— 1，反弹；2，反弹；3——
19:12 - 19:20
EN: pullback, two, pullback, three – and a larger Wedge – one, two, and then three.
ZH: 你也可以说它是一个小楔形——3次下跌—— 1，反弹；2，反弹；3—— 还有一个更大的楔形——1，2，然后3
19:23 - 19:24
EN: Second entry buy.
ZH: 第2做多入场点
19:24 - 19:26
EN: First entry, second entry.
ZH: 第1，第2
19:26 - 19:31
EN: It’s a reasonable aggressive buy for bulls looking for a swing up.
ZH: 对于想要上涨波段的多头来说， 这是一个激进但合理的买点
19:32 - 19:37
EN: If they buy above this bull bar, reasonable to put a stop
ZH: 如果他们在这个阳线上方买入， 止损放在这根阴线下方是合理的
19:35 - 19:42
EN: below the low of this bear bar, betting that the support at the bottom
ZH: 如果他们在这个阳线上方买入， 止损放在这根阴线下方是合理的 押注在240分钟的周期上，这个大震荡区间的底部会有支撑
19:39 - 19:42
EN: of the 240-minute Trading Range will hold.
ZH: 押注在240分钟的周期上，这个大震荡区间的底部会有支撑
19:46 - 19:48
EN: Very Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 非常窄的下降通道
19:48 - 19:50
EN: First reversal up minor, which usually means
ZH: 第1次上涨只是小反转，
19:50 - 19:54
EN: you’ll enter a Trading Range either here or here.
ZH: 也就是说会在这里或这里变成震荡区间
19:56 - 19:58
EN: Higher probability to buy above this bull bar.
ZH: 在这个阳线上方做多的胜率会更高
19:58 - 20:01
EN: We have a reversal up and now a Higher Low.
ZH: 反转上涨，回调形成抬高的低点
20:01 - 20:03
EN: Probably going up for a second leg,
ZH: 很可能会有第2段上涨
20:03 - 20:07
EN: and probably we’ll get to the top of the most recent big Sell Climax – this high.
ZH: 可能会反弹到最近一次大抛售高潮的起跌点——这个高点
Slide 013
Time: 20:10
Bilingual Transcript
20:15 - 20:20
EN: Strong enough up here or here, the market’s probably Always In Long.
ZH: 这里，还有这根阳线足够强势， 市场可能已经处于单边上涨
20:20 - 20:23
EN: It still could be a Lower High in a bear trend,
ZH: 它仍然可能是下降趋势中一个降低的高点
20:23 - 20:26
EN: but at this point probably Always In Long.
ZH: 但现在大概率已经处于单边上涨
20:26 - 20:28
EN: It’s a complex rally.
ZH: 这个反弹具有复合型的结构
20:28 - 20:30
EN: We have a pullback, we have a pullback,
ZH: 回调，有一些回调，
20:30 - 20:32
EN: we have a pullback, and a pretty Tight Channel.
ZH: 回调，而且通道很窄
20:32 - 20:35
EN: Probably it’s the first of two larger legs up
ZH: 它可能是两大段上涨中的第1段
20:35 - 20:40
EN: - so Leg 1, a complex pullback, and then Leg 2.
ZH: ——第1段上涨，复合型的回调结构，然后第2段
20:46 - 20:50
EN: Scalpers are going to be pretty quick to take profits.
ZH: 剥头皮交易者会非常迅速地止盈
20:53 - 20:56
EN: For example, we have two legs up – one, pullback, two.
ZH: 例如，有两段上涨——1，回调，2
20:56 - 20:59
EN: A scalper would get out here or here.
ZH: 剥头皮交易者会在这里或这里离场
20:59 - 21:01
EN: Three pushes up, a Wedge – one, two, three,
ZH: 3推上涨，楔形顶——1，2，3，
21:01 - 21:03
EN: testing near the top of the Sell Climax.
ZH: 测试了抛售高潮的起跌点
21:03 - 21:09
EN: Scalpers would exit below that bear bar
ZH: 剥头皮交易者会在那个阴线，或这个阴线下方离场， 订单会在这根K线成交
21:05 - 21:09
EN: or below this bear bar and get filled here.
ZH: 剥头皮交易者会在那个阴线，或这个阴线下方离场， 订单会在这根K线成交
21:10 - 21:14
EN: That’s because the probability of higher prices has fallen at this point.
ZH: 因为此时继续上涨的概率已经降低了
21:14 - 21:18
EN: High probability here or here that we’re going at least a little higher,
ZH: 在这里或这里的时候，大概率还会在涨一些
21:18 - 21:21
EN: but once we get thereversal down here or here,
ZH: 然而一旦在这里或这里反转下跌
21:21 - 21:24
EN: the probability is that we’re probably going to go sideways.
ZH: 更大的概率是市场会横盘震荡
21:24 - 21:28
EN: We might even reverse, but the probability has dropped,
ZH: 甚至可能会反转； 总之继续上涨的概率已经降低了，
21:28 - 21:31
EN: and therefore the premise of a scalp is no longer valid.
ZH: 因此剥头皮交易的前提不再有效
21:37 - 21:43
EN: A pair of strong bear bars, but possibly a Higher Low and possibly a 50% pullback.
ZH: 两根阴线，但有可能是抬高的低点， 并且可能是50%回调
21:43 - 21:46
EN: New bull trend, 50% pullback.
ZH: 新的上涨趋势，50%回调
21:46 - 21:51
EN: The premise for swing traders looking for a second leg up is still valid,
ZH: 对于波段交易者来说，押注第2段上涨的前提仍然成立
21:51 - 21:55
EN: and swing traders would hold long,
ZH: 所以尽管有两根阴线，他们也会继续持有
21:53 - 21:55
EN: even though we have a pair of consecutive bear bars.
ZH: 所以尽管有两根阴线，他们也会继续持有
21:55 - 22:00
EN: It’s a breakout test of this high and it’s about a 50% pullback,
ZH: 这是对这个高点的突破回测，并且大约是50%回调
22:00 - 22:04
EN: and both bear bars have tails below, so they’re not especially big.
ZH: 并且两根阴线都有明显的下影线，所以实际体积并不算太大
22:04 - 22:09
EN: This body is smaller than that body, so the reversal down is losing momentum.
ZH: 它的体积比它小，所以空头正在失去动能
22:14 - 22:18
EN: In this video, I defined a swing trade as a trade where you’re trying
ZH: 这节课，我给出了波段交易的定义——
Slide 014
Time: 22:15
Bilingual Transcript
22:18 - 22:21
EN: for a reward that is at least twice as big as your risk.
ZH: 尝试至少获得两倍于风险的利润
22:21 - 22:26
EN: The probability for a swing trade in general is at least 40%,
ZH: 波段交易的概率通常至少是40%
22:26 - 22:29
EN: and if you have a reward that is twice your risk as your goal,
ZH: 如果你的目标利润是风险的两倍
22:29 - 22:31
EN: you have a positive Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 那么数学期望肯定是正的
22:37 - 22:38
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
22:38 - 22:40
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
22:40 - 22:44
EN: This is the second of four videos on swing trading and scalping.
ZH: 波段交易和剥头皮交易的第2节课，就先讲到这里