al-brooks-course
35A - Scaling In
Raw transcript and slide notes for 35A - Scaling In.
Overview
- Slides: 18
- Transcript segments: 592
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:03
Bilingual Transcript
00:03 - 00:04
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:04 - 00:06
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:06 - 00:11
EN: This is the first of three videos on scaling into a trade.
ZH: 接下来的3节课，我们来讲加仓（注：即分批入场）
Slide 001
Time: 00:12
Bilingual Transcript
00:15 - 00:19
EN: I’ll begin by talking about who scales in and why they scale in.
ZH: 这节课的第1个话题是：哪些交易者会加仓， 以及他们为什么要加仓
00:20 - 00:25
EN: Next I’ll move on and talk about scaling into a winning trade.
ZH: 第2个话题是：盈利加仓
Slide 002
Time: 00:28
Bilingual Transcript
00:30 - 00:38
EN: I’m going to use this slide to illustrate scaling
ZH: 我会用这一页课件来说明， 盈利加仓和亏损加仓分别是什么样的
00:34 - 00:38
EN: into a winning or a losing trade.
ZH: 我会用这一页课件来说明， 盈利加仓和亏损加仓分别是什么样的
00:40 - 00:45
EN: We have a bull trend and then a bear channel, which is also a bear trend.
ZH: 上涨趋势，然后是下降通道，它也已经变成了下降趋势
00:51 - 01:01
EN: Scaling in is a technique that traders should consider using
ZH: 交易者应该在有了一些经验之后，再去考虑加仓这件事
00:57 - 01:01
EN: after they have some experience trading,
ZH: 交易者应该在有了一些经验之后，再去考虑加仓这件事
01:01 - 01:04
EN: and preferably after they’ve become consistently profitable.
ZH: 最好是在稳定盈利之后再去考虑加仓
01:05 - 01:06
EN: It’s difficult for beginners.
ZH: （加仓）对新手来说是很困难的
01:06 - 01:11
EN: It’s tempting, because they understand
ZH: 它很诱人，因为人们知道加仓可以增加胜率
01:08 - 01:11
EN: that it can increase the probability of success.
ZH: 它很诱人，因为人们知道加仓可以增加胜率
01:11 - 01:18
EN: But whenever you increase your probability of success,
ZH: 但是，每当胜率增加的时候，风险也在增加
01:15 - 01:18
EN: you additionally increase your risk.
ZH: 但是，每当胜率增加的时候，风险也在增加
01:18 - 01:22
EN: Also, there are added decisions that you have to make,
ZH: 此外，（如果加仓的话）你还需要做出更多的决定
01:22 - 01:31
EN: and sometimes you have to make them quickly, and one of the common mistakes
ZH: 在交易的时候，总是需要快速做出决定， 而新手常见的错误之一就是不知道什么时候离场， 或者（在应该离场的时候）拒绝离场
01:26 - 01:31
EN: that beginners make is they don’t know when to get out or they refuse to get out.
ZH: 而新手常见的错误之一就是不知道什么时候离场， 或者（在应该离场的时候）拒绝离场
01:32 - 01:36
EN: Their losses start to grow, they no longer are objective,
ZH: 当他们的浮亏越来越大，他们就无法保持可观了
01:36 - 01:39
EN: they manage their trades incorrectly, and then they end up
ZH: 他们用错误的方法管理交易，
01:39 - 01:42
EN: losing much more money than they ever expected.
ZH: 导致最终的亏损远超预期
01:46 - 01:56
EN: However, strong trends do offer great opportunities for traders to scale in,
ZH: 然而，强趋势确实为交易者提供了加仓的机会， 交易者随着价格的变化分批入场
01:52 - 01:56
EN: add on to their position as the trade continues.
ZH: 然而，强趋势确实为交易者提供了加仓的机会， 交易者随着价格的变化分批入场
01:58 - 02:03
EN: For example, at the beginning here we have 5 consecutive bull bars
ZH: 例如，这里一开始有连续5根阳线
02:03 - 02:05
EN: and then we have a little pullback and then we have a breakout,
ZH: 小回调之后，再次向上突破
02:05 - 02:07
EN: so it’s a strong bull breakout.
ZH: 强势的多头突破
02:08 - 02:10
EN: It’s reasonable to buy here,
ZH: 在这里买入是合理的
02:10 - 02:14
EN: and your stop goes below the bottom of the bull trend down here.
ZH: 把止损放在这个上涨趋势的起涨点下方
02:20 - 02:23
EN: And if you’re still long at this point – we have another breakout,
ZH: 如果此时你仍然持有多头仓位——再次向上突破，
02:23 - 02:27
EN: another bull flag, 3 bar pullback, but then we have a bull bar.
ZH: 然后3根K线回调，这是牛旗，然后又有1根阳线
02:27 - 02:29
EN: So it looks like the trend is resuming.
ZH: 看起来趋势还在继续
02:29 - 02:33
EN: You can buy on a stop just above the high of that signal bar,
ZH: 你可以在信号K线的高点上方挂突破买单
02:34 - 02:37
EN: so now you have a bigger position.
ZH: 现在你的仓位变大了
02:40 - 02:44
EN: Every time there’s a strong breakout, especially to a new high,
ZH: 每次有强势的突破，特别是创新高之后，
02:44 - 02:50
EN: traders raise their stop to just below the low of that new leg up.
ZH: 交易者会把他们的止损抬高到新的起涨点下方
02:53 - 02:56
EN: One of the most important things when scaling into
ZH: 加仓（分批入场）时最重要的事情之一是：
02:56 - 03:06
EN: a trade is trading the appropriate size, and it’s often much smaller
ZH: 要用很小的仓位进行交易，我称之为“不在乎”的仓位
03:02 - 03:06
EN: than you think, and I call it the “I don’t care” size.
ZH: 要用很小的仓位进行交易，我称之为“不在乎”的仓位
03:06 - 03:10
EN: You have to trade so small that you really do not care.
ZH: 你必须用很小的仓位，小到你真的不在乎
03:10 - 03:17
EN: You need to remain objective, and you can only remain objective
ZH: 交易者需要保持客观，而人只有在不考虑金钱时才能保持客观
03:15 - 03:17
EN: as long as you’re not thinking about money,
ZH: 交易者需要保持客观，而人只有在不考虑金钱时才能保持客观
03:17 - 03:23
EN: and instead you’re thinking about the trade
ZH: 你应该专注于交易本身——根据K线图做出正确的决定
03:20 - 03:23
EN: - and by doing what is right based upon the charts,
ZH: 你应该专注于交易本身——根据K线图做出正确的决定
03:23 - 03:33
EN: not based upon the growing loss in my account or not based upon
ZH: 而不是根据账户上的浮盈或浮亏来做决定
03:29 - 03:33
EN: my risk increasing because of my increased position size.
ZH: 而不是根据账户上的浮盈或浮亏来做决定
03:35 - 03:38
EN: Traders starting out often cannot remain objective,
ZH: 新手交易者往往无法保持客观
03:39 - 03:43
EN: and therefore scaling in is emotionally too difficult for them,
ZH: 所以在情感和心态上，新手很难把握加仓的交易方法 （注：加仓，风险变大，压力变大）
03:43 - 03:45
EN: and they need to wait.
ZH: 而且加仓的时机也需要等待 （注：新手往往加仓太早、太急）
03:50 - 03:53
EN: Every trade eventually ends.
ZH: 每一笔交易最终都要平仓； 每一个趋势最终都会结束
Slide 003
Time: 03:50
Bilingual Transcript
03:51 - 03:53
EN: Every trend eventually ends.
ZH: 每一笔交易最终都要平仓； 每一个趋势最终都会结束
03:53 - 03:57
EN: Here we have a Micro Channel lasting about 8 or 9 bars.
ZH: 这个微通道持续了大约8~9根K线
03:57 - 04:00
EN: That’s a breakout on a higher timeframe.
ZH: 在更高的时间周期上，它是一次突破
04:00 - 04:02
EN: Here’s another breakout, even stronger,
ZH: 这里是更强的突破
04:02 - 04:06
EN: and then look at this – we have an even stronger breakout.
ZH: 再看这个——比上一次突破更强
04:06 - 04:13
EN: So we have consecutive Buy Climaxes there,
ZH: 所以这是连续的抢购高潮—— 这里，然后这里，这里（注：不断加速上涨的抛物线）
04:10 - 04:13
EN: a bigger one here, and an even bigger one here.
ZH: 所以这是连续的抢购高潮—— 这里，然后这里，这里（注：不断加速上涨的抛物线）
04:13 - 04:18
EN: This one is the biggest one occurring after 20 bars in a trend.
ZH: 趋势持续超过20根K线之后，出现最大的大阳线
04:19 - 04:25
EN: Whenever that happens, it’s more likely that it is the final leg of the trend
ZH: 每当这种情况发生时，它很有可能就是最后一段上涨，
04:25 - 04:28
EN: or near the final leg of the trend, and the trend is about to reverse.
ZH: 或至少趋势接近尾声、即将反转
04:28 - 04:33
EN: A breakout that strong often has one more push up before it tries to reverse.
ZH: 这么强的突破，通常在尝试反转之前还会有一小段上涨
04:35 - 04:44
EN: Selling a first reversal down, especially below a bull bar or at the bottom
ZH: 在第一次下跌时做空，尤其是在阳线下方， 或者在窄震荡区间下方开仓，不是高胜率的做法
04:40 - 04:44
EN: of a Tight Trading Range, is usually not a high probability trade.
ZH: 在第一次下跌时做空，尤其是在阳线下方， 或者在窄震荡区间下方开仓，不是高胜率的做法
04:44 - 04:50
EN: However, after the market has 1, 2, 3, 4 bear bars,
ZH: 然而，当市场出现1、2、3、4根阴线
04:50 - 04:55
EN: 3 of them closing on their lows and having a decent size body,
ZH: 其中3根收在最低，而且体积不错
04:55 - 05:00
EN: then we have a big up, big down, big confusion setup.
ZH: 这就是一个大涨、大跌、大困惑的交易机会
05:00 - 05:07
EN: Probably the best the bulls will get over the next 10 or 20 bars
ZH: 接下来的10~20根K线里，多头能得到的最好情况 就是震荡区间，而不是上涨趋势恢复
05:04 - 05:07
EN: is a Trading Range rather than a resumption of the bull trend.
ZH: 接下来的10~20根K线里，多头能得到的最好情况 就是震荡区间，而不是上涨趋势恢复
05:09 - 05:13
EN: Because of that, bears are starting to sell.
ZH: 因此，空头开始卖出做空
05:13 - 05:17
EN: For example, they’ll maybe sell this close.
ZH: 例如，他们会在它的收盘卖出
05:17 - 05:20
EN: Because it might be a Trading Range, they have to put their stop above the high.
ZH: 因为有可能是震荡区间，所以他们必须把止损放在高点上方
05:20 - 05:23
EN: It may also be a bear trend.
ZH: 也有可能反转成为下降趋势
05:23 - 05:27
EN: On a higher timeframe chart, this 5 bar bear channel is probably a breakout,
ZH: 在更高的时间周期上，这连续5根K线就是一次空头突破
05:27 - 05:32
EN: so we might get a spike, pullback, and channel – which we did.
ZH: 所以可能会变成急速下跌、反弹、通道——就像这样
05:36 - 05:37
EN: Traders will sell.
ZH: 交易者会卖出
05:37 - 05:41
EN: Some traders will sell the close of that fourth consecutive bear bar.
ZH: 有些交易者会在连续第4根阴线的收盘卖出
05:41 - 05:45
EN: Some will sell the close of that third or even the second when the two bars
ZH: 有些人在第3，甚至第2根阴线的收盘就卖出了，
05:45 - 05:48
EN: are as big as they are and closing near their lows.
ZH: 因为它们体积很大，而且收在最低
05:48 - 05:52
EN: This bar closed below the low of the past 6 or 7 bars.
ZH: 这根K线的收盘价低于过去6~7根K线的最低点
05:52 - 05:53
EN: And we have a Wedge.
ZH: 而且有楔形顶
05:53 - 05:56
EN: You can call it a Wedge – one, two, three.
ZH: 你可以把它看作楔形——1，2，3
05:56 - 06:00
EN: Also very strong bull breakout, strong enough for a second leg up.
ZH: 在这么强的突破之后，至少会有第2段上涨
06:01 - 06:02
EN: That’s the second leg up.
ZH: 这就是它的第2段上涨
06:04 - 06:08
EN: And it is not strong, so traders are expecting a reversal.
ZH: 第2段并不强势，所以交易者预期它会反转
06:12 - 06:17
EN: Strong enough leg down, bears will put their stop above the top of the bear leg.
ZH: 下跌足够强势，所以空头把止损放在起跌点的上方
06:21 - 06:27
EN: Whenever there’s a strong trend that has consecutive Buy Climaxes or a Wedge
ZH: 如果在强趋势里出现连续的抢购高潮， 或者楔形顶——1，2，3
06:27 - 06:30
EN: - one, two, three – traders are expecting two legs down.
ZH: ——交易者预期会有两段下跌（注：TBTL）
06:30 - 06:33
EN: One and then pullback and then two.
ZH: 1，反弹，然后2
06:36 - 06:39
EN: Some traders will wait for a bear bar like this.
ZH: 一些交易者会等待像这样的阴线
06:39 - 06:42
EN: A weak rally, two legs up – one, pullback, two
ZH: 较弱的两段式反弹——1，回调，2
06:42 - 06:48
EN: - and they’ll sell below the bear bar or maybe they’ll sell here, a Wedge.
ZH: ——然后空头在阴线下方卖出； 或者在这里卖出，看作是楔形熊旗——1，2，3
06:46 - 06:48
EN: One, two, three.
ZH: ——然后空头在阴线下方卖出； 或者在这里卖出，看作是楔形熊旗——1，2，3
06:48 - 06:51
EN: So small Wedge, Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 小的楔形熊旗，高点降低的大反转
06:51 - 06:54
EN: Bull trend, strong bear breakout.
ZH: 上涨趋势，强势的空头突破
06:54 - 06:57
EN: Weak rally, testing the prior high.
ZH: 弱反弹，测试前期的高点
06:57 - 07:02
EN: So traders are looking for a second leg down, and they’ll sell below there.
ZH: 所以交易者预期会有第2段下跌，他们在这根K线下方卖出
07:02 - 07:07
EN: So they sold here, they’re losing money, and they add to their losing position.
ZH: 假设之前他们在这里卖出，目前是浮亏的，然后他们加仓
07:07 - 07:11
EN: But when they’re selling here, they knew their stop was up here
ZH: 当他们在这里卖出时，他们知道他们的止损在上方
07:11 - 07:16
EN: and they knew they may want to sell more higher, so they traded small enough
ZH: 他们做好了逢高卖出更多的打算，所以他们的仓位足够小
07:16 - 07:19
EN: so that this position plus this position
ZH: 这两部分的仓位加起来
07:19 - 07:23
EN: would not create too much risk using a stop up here.
ZH: 就算被止损，也不会比其它交易亏更多钱
07:24 - 07:29
EN: When they sell higher, their average entry price now is in between the two,
ZH: 在更高的位置加仓做空之后， 他们的平均入场价格就在两者的中点（假设两笔仓位一样大）
07:29 - 07:32
EN: so their average entry price is right here.
ZH: 所以他们的平均入场价就在这里
07:36 - 07:43
EN: Whenever you add to a losing position,
ZH: 只有当交易的前提仍然成立时，才能够亏损加仓
07:40 - 07:43
EN: you’re only doing it if your premise is still valid.
ZH: 只有当交易的前提仍然成立时，才能够亏损加仓
07:43 - 07:54
EN: It increases your probability, but whenever you get high probability,
ZH: 这会增加你的胜率，但也要为此付出代价， 交易的盈亏比就会变差（因为风险增加了）
07:49 - 07:54
EN: you have to pay for it, and the other side of probability is risk/reward.
ZH: 这会增加你的胜率，但也要为此付出代价， 交易的盈亏比就会变差（因为风险增加了）
07:55 - 07:59
EN: If you’re going to create high probability, you’re going to pay for it
ZH: 如果你想提高交易的胜率，就需要用盈亏比作为交换
07:59 - 08:04
EN: with worse risk/reward, and usually with greater risk.
ZH: 通常需要承担更大的风险
08:04 - 08:08
EN: So you’re doubling your position size, so you’re increasing your risk.
ZH: 因为你的仓位翻倍了，所以风险大幅增加
Slide 004
Time: 08:10
Bilingual Transcript
08:15 - 08:19
EN: Some traders, when they’re increasing their position size
ZH: 一些交易者在亏损加仓的时候，
08:19 - 08:24
EN: and it’s a losing position, they’ve given up their hope of making a profit.
ZH: 他们已经放弃了盈利的希望
08:24 - 08:27
EN: Instead, they’ve changed their goal.
ZH: 他们已经改变了这笔交易的目标
08:27 - 08:35
EN: Instead of hoping for a profit,
ZH: 不再期待盈利，而是希望可以不亏、或少亏离场
08:30 - 08:35
EN: they’re simply trying to reduce or eliminate their risk.
ZH: 不再期待盈利，而是希望可以不亏、或少亏离场
08:39 - 08:46
EN: So for example, let’s say an optimistic bull did not think
ZH: 比如说，假设一个乐观的多头， 认为这不是抢购高潮后的衰竭反转
08:43 - 08:51
EN: about this as being a likely exhaustion bar, and instead he saw a pullback
ZH: 比如说，假设一个乐观的多头， 认为这不是抢购高潮后的衰竭反转 而是把它看作回调——高1，然后高2
08:48 - 08:51
EN: - one, so a High 1, and then a High 2,
ZH: 而是把它看作回调——高1，然后高2
08:51 - 08:54
EN: a small Double Bottom, and he bought above that bar.
ZH: 可以看作小双底，他在那根K线上方买入
08:54 - 08:56
EN: And then he starts to see this and this
ZH: 结果出现了两根大阴线
08:56 - 08:59
EN: and he’s saying “Oh my gosh, it’s not good.
ZH: 于是他想到：“天哪，这下坏了，开始回调了。”
08:58 - 09:01
EN: It’s pulling back.” But after a strong bull trend,
ZH: 于是他想到：“天哪，这下坏了，开始回调了。” 但是在这么强的上涨趋势之后，
09:01 - 09:06
EN: the first reversal down usually results in a Trading Range and not a bear trend.
ZH: 第1次回调通常会变成震荡区间，而不是下降趋势
09:07 - 09:09
EN: Maybe it’s safe to buy more lower.
ZH: 也许逢低买入加仓是安全的
09:12 - 09:15
EN: That’s his stop at the bottom of most recent bull breakout.
ZH: 他的止损放在最近一次多头突破的起涨点下方
09:16 - 09:23
EN: Now he has a strong bear reversal, and he knows when a reversal is that strong,
ZH: 现在出现了强势的空头反转， 他知道，当反转如此强势时，
09:23 - 09:26
EN: the market probably will have a second leg down.
ZH: 大概率会有第2段下跌
09:26 - 09:30
EN: He also sees the consecutive Buy Climaxes and the Wedge
ZH: 他还看到了连续的抢购高潮和楔形顶
09:30 - 09:38
EN: - three pushes up, one, two, three – so he expects two legs down
ZH: 3次向上推动——1，2，3—— 所以他预期在这么强势的空头反转之后，会有第2段下跌
09:35 - 09:38
EN: after such a strong bear reversal.
ZH: 3次向上推动——1，2，3—— 所以他预期在这么强势的空头反转之后，会有第2段下跌
09:40 - 09:44
EN: However, he also knows that it was reasonable taking this buy.
ZH: 同时，他也知道在这里买入是合理的
09:45 - 09:47
EN: Usually if you do something that’s reasonable
ZH: 通常，如果你的入场点是合理的
09:48 - 09:52
EN: and then you manage your trade properly, usually by scaling
ZH: 然后你正确地管理这笔交易——需要加仓， 并且使用正确的止损
09:51 - 09:57
EN: in using appropriate stops, you can either make a profit or avoid a loss.
ZH: 然后你正确地管理这笔交易——需要加仓， 并且使用正确的止损 通常你是可以赚钱的，至少可以避免亏损
09:58 - 10:03
EN: So what a bull might do is buy here, sit through the bear trend
ZH: 所以一个多头在这里买入之后，可以在回调中继续持有
10:03 - 10:07
EN: - it’s around a 50% pullback – and he waits for a bull bar,
ZH: ——这里大约是50%回调—— 然后他等待一根阳线
10:07 - 10:09
EN: and then he buys above that bull bar.
ZH: 在阳线的上方买入加仓
10:09 - 10:14
EN: Or he might say, “Oh, 5 bear bars.
ZH: 或者他可能会说：“哎哟，连续5根阴线， 还是等第2做多入场点比较好。”
10:12 - 10:14
EN: Maybe I’d better wait for a second entry buy,”
ZH: 或者他可能会说：“哎哟，连续5根阴线， 还是等第2做多入场点比较好。”
10:14 - 10:17
EN: so maybe he’ll buy above this bar or that bar.
ZH: 所以他可以在这根K线，或那根K线上方买入
10:17 - 10:22
EN: However, his goal at this point is not to make a profit.
ZH: 然而，他此时的目标已经不再是盈利
10:22 - 10:26
EN: He believes that the market’s going to have a Lower High and a second leg down,
ZH: 他认为高点会降低，然后会有第2段下跌
10:26 - 10:29
EN: but he also believes doing this was rational
ZH: 但他也认为在这里买入是合理的
10:29 - 10:31
EN: and buying above a bull bar is rational.
ZH: 然后在这根阳线的上方加仓也是合理的
10:31 - 10:35
EN: So the market will probably let him out breakeven.
ZH: 所以市场可能会让他打平离场 （注：两个合理的入场点，打平的概率是80%）
10:35 - 10:42
EN: He’s buying here, hoping to exit exactly at the midpoint
ZH: 他在这里买入，希望能在平均入场价格打平离场， 他的入场点分别是这里和这里
10:40 - 10:42
EN: of his two entries, here and here.
ZH: 他在这里买入，希望能在平均入场价格打平离场， 他的入场点分别是这里和这里
10:48 - 10:51
EN: That’s his first entry, just a little bit above that bar.
ZH: 这是他的第1次入场，就在那根K线的上方
10:51 - 10:54
EN: His second entry’s a little bit above this bar,
ZH: 他的第2次入场在这根K线上方
10:54 - 10:56
EN: and the average entry price is right here.
ZH: 平均入场价就在这里
10:57 - 11:02
EN: He might place a limit order to get out at that average entry price.
ZH: 他可以在平均价格这里挂一个限价卖单
11:04 - 11:09
EN: If it’s not filled and then we get a Micro Double Top
ZH: 假设订单没有成交，然后出现小双顶——上涨，回调，上涨
11:07 - 11:11
EN: - up, pullback, up – he’ll then get out below the low of that bar.
ZH: 假设订单没有成交，然后出现小双顶——上涨，回调，上涨 那么他就可以在那根K线的低点下方离场
11:13 - 11:18
EN: By taking the second entry, he either eliminates his risk
ZH: 通过在这里加仓，如果在这里成交离场，他就避免了亏损
11:16 - 11:20
EN: if he got filled there, or he reduces his loss.
ZH: 通过在这里加仓，如果在这里成交离场，他就避免了亏损 或者减少了亏损（如果没有成交，在后面离场）
11:20 - 11:25
EN: So he eliminates his loss, gets out breakeven
ZH: 如果他的限价卖单在这里成交，他就成功地打平离场
11:23 - 11:25
EN: on his trade here if he gets filled.
ZH: 如果他的限价卖单在这里成交，他就成功地打平离场
11:25 - 11:29
EN: If he does not, he’ll get out here and he’ll still have a loss,
ZH: 如果没有，他在这里离场，仍然有亏损
11:29 - 11:32
EN: but it will be a much smaller loss because he scaled in here.
ZH: 但少亏了很多钱，因为他在这里加仓了
11:40 - 11:43
EN: The bears are thinking the same thing.
ZH: 空头也知道这一点
11:43 - 11:46
EN: Wedge Top, strong bear reversal, two legs down,
ZH: 楔形顶，强势的空头反转，（会有）第2段下跌
11:46 - 11:49
EN: so they’re looking to sell a Lower High.
ZH: 所以他们想要在高点降低的时候去做空
11:49 - 11:52
EN: So they’ll sell exactly where the bulls are getting out.
ZH: 他们会在多头离场的地方卖出
11:53 - 11:57
EN: We have a Micro Double Top, 4 or 5 bars up,
ZH: 上涨了4~5根K线之后，出现了小双顶
11:57 - 12:00
EN: a reasonable sell – and it’s a 50% pullback.
ZH: 这是合理的做空入场点——也是50%反弹
12:00 - 12:03
EN: I’ve talked about 50% pullbacks in my other videos.
ZH: 我在其他视频中讲过50%回调 / 反弹
12:04 - 12:08
EN: At 50%, the risk for the bears is here
ZH: 在50%的地方，空头的风险在这里，
12:08 - 12:12
EN: and minimum reward is here, about the same.
ZH: 最低利润目标在这里，大致相同
12:12 - 12:16
EN: And for the bulls, their risk is here, their reward is here.
ZH: 对于多头来说，风险在这里，利润目标在这里
12:16 - 12:21
EN: But in this particular situation,
ZH: 但在这种情况下，大概率会有第2段下跌
12:18 - 12:21
EN: the odds are we’re going to have a second leg down.
ZH: 但在这种情况下，大概率会有第2段下跌
12:22 - 12:26
EN: Yes, the risk and reward is equal for the bulls and for the bears,
ZH: 对于多头和空头来说，尽管风险和利润是相等的 （注：盈亏比一样）
12:26 - 12:28
EN: but the bears have higher probability.
ZH: 但空头的胜率更高
12:28 - 12:30
EN: So it’s a reasonable short.
ZH: 所以这是一个合理的卖点
12:31 - 12:34
EN: The bears will sell a 50% pullback,
ZH: 空头会在50%反弹时卖出
12:34 - 12:37
EN: either with a limit order or on the reversal down.
ZH: （在50%）挂限价卖单，或是在反转下跌时用突破卖单
Slide 005
Time: 12:40
Bilingual Transcript
12:42 - 12:46
EN: Whenever traders scale in, they have to have a plan.
ZH: 如果想要加仓，交易者就必须做好计划
12:48 - 12:56
EN: How many times are they going to add to their position? At what intervals?
ZH: 他们打算加仓多少次？ 每次间隔多少距离？用多少仓位？
12:52 - 12:56
EN: How far apart will their entries be? What size?
ZH: 他们打算加仓多少次？ 每次间隔多少距离？用多少仓位？
12:56 - 13:00
EN: And then they also have to know when they plan to exit,
ZH: 他们还必须知道什么时候离场
13:00 - 13:05
EN: and if they’re planning to exit with a profit or a loss or breakeven.
ZH: 目标到底是盈利，还是少亏或打平
13:10 - 13:14
EN: I talked about adding to a winning position in a strong trend
ZH: 我们也讲过如何在强趋势中盈利加仓——
13:14 - 13:19
EN: - buying here, stop here, and then buying more higher.
ZH: 在这里买入，止损在这里； 突破之后买入更多
13:21 - 13:22
EN: New stop.
ZH: 新的止损在这里
13:24 - 13:32
EN: And I talked about adding to a position
ZH: 我们也讲了在浮亏的时候加仓， 通过加仓去避免亏损
13:28 - 13:32
EN: where you’re probably going to lose money and you’re trying to avoid a loss.
ZH: 我们也讲了在浮亏的时候加仓， 通过加仓去避免亏损
13:34 - 13:37
EN: I also talked about adding to a losing position.
ZH: 另外一个浮亏加仓的例子是
13:38 - 13:44
EN: Bears selling here, expecting that it’s such a strong reversal after a Wedge,
ZH: 空头在这里卖出，预期楔形顶（以及连续抢购高潮） 之后的强势反转
13:44 - 13:48
EN: the market’s going lower, probably at least to the bottom of the Buy Climax,
ZH: 市场在下跌，大概率至少会跌到抢购高潮的起涨点
13:48 - 13:50
EN: and it probably will have two legs down.
ZH: 大概率会有两段下跌
13:50 - 13:52
EN: It may just go straight down.
ZH: 它可能会直接下跌
13:52 - 13:53
EN: It may bounce first.
ZH: 也可能会先反弹
13:54 - 13:59
EN: But in either case, the bears know the probability
ZH: 无论是哪种情况，空头都知道他们的胜率很高
13:58 - 13:59
EN: is they’re going to make a profit.
ZH: 无论是哪种情况，空头都知道他们的胜率很高
14:01 - 14:04
EN: They sell here, thinking that “Okay, I’ll put a stop up here
ZH: 他们在这里卖出，心想：“好，我把止损放在这里，
14:04 - 14:09
EN: but I’ll trade small enough so that if in fact we enter a Trading Range,
ZH: 但是用很小的仓位，以防它变成震荡区间
14:09 - 14:15
EN: I can sell more higher and then either avoid a loss or make a profit.”
ZH: 那么我就可以在高位卖出更多，至少不会亏钱，甚至可以赚钱。”
14:17 - 14:20
EN: The bear sells here, he has a losing position at this point.
ZH: 空头在这里卖出，他此时是浮亏的
14:20 - 14:24
EN: He sells more here, stop up here, and he trades small enough
ZH: 他在这里卖出更多，止损在这里； 由于仓位足够小，
14:24 - 14:29
EN: so that if that stop gets hit, his entire position will not result
ZH: 所以即使止损真的被打到，
14:29 - 14:33
EN: in a loss any bigger than he would get on any other trade.
ZH: 他的亏损也不会大于平时的其它交易
14:35 - 14:38
EN: And if he held for a swing, he ended up making a nice profit.
ZH: 如果他持有做波段交易，最终能够获得不错的利润
Slide 006
Time: 14:40
Bilingual Transcript
14:42 - 14:46
EN: Now, who scales in? Professional traders do it all the time.
ZH: 哪些交易者会加仓？其实职业的交易者一直都在这么做
14:47 - 14:52
EN: For example, a fund manager like billionaire Carl Icahn.
ZH: 例如，像亿万富翁卡尔·伊坎这样的基金经理 （注：Carl Icahn，身价约140亿美金）
14:52 - 14:56
EN: Warren Buffett, for that matter, might be scaling into positions.
ZH: 从分批入场的角度而言，股神巴菲特肯定也是这么做的
14:56 - 15:04
EN: As he’s trying to take over a company, he may increase his stake even
ZH: 当他想要控股某家公司的时候，他会在股价下跌时不断买入
15:00 - 15:04
EN: as the company loses money and loses value.
ZH: 当他想要控股某家公司的时候，他会在股价下跌时不断买入
15:06 - 15:09
EN: Here’s an example with Carl Icahn.
ZH: 这里有一个卡尔·伊坎的投资案例
15:09 - 15:16
EN: In December of 2015, CNBC reported that Icahn added to his losing position
ZH: 2015年12月，CNBC报道称， 卡尔·伊坎第八次亏损加仓LNG这只股票
15:16 - 15:23
EN: in LNG for the eighth time, even though it had fallen more than 50%.
ZH: 尽管它此时已经下跌了超过50%
15:24 - 15:26
EN: It kept falling and falling and falling,
ZH: 股价不断地下跌 （注2015年股价从$80跌到$30）
15:26 - 15:30
EN: but he believed it was undervalued and that it would reverse up.
ZH: 但他相信这支公司被低估了，会反转上涨的 （注：现在，即2025年，股价约$250）
15:30 - 15:43
EN: He added to his losing position eight times, but each addition did not increase
ZH: 他8次加仓，但始终都把仓位控制在舒适区中
15:39 - 15:43
EN: his position size to an uncomfortable level.
ZH: 他8次加仓，但始终都把仓位控制在舒适区中
15:43 - 15:45
EN: He was able to remain objective.
ZH: 他能够保持客观
15:48 - 15:51
EN: Individual investors also scale in.
ZH: 散户投资者也会分批入场
15:51 - 15:55
EN: If you ever watch Cramer on “Fast Money,” he’ll sometimes tell you,
ZH: 如果你看过“Fast Money”这个节目，主持人Cramer有时会说：
15:55 - 15:59
EN: buy part of your position now and then wait a few days and buy part more.”
ZH: “先买入部分仓位，然后等几天再买入更多。”
16:00 - 16:06
EN: And then you also hear about averaging down or dollar-cost averaging,
ZH: 你也会听到网格交易法，或平均成本投资法
16:06 - 16:13
EN: which is a very common, sensible approach to investing for individual investors.
ZH: 对于散户投资者来说是非常常见且明智的做法
16:13 - 16:16
EN: Like buy a tenth of your position this month and then,
ZH: 例如，这个月用10分之1的仓位买入某支股票
16:16 - 16:22
EN: no matter what the stock or market is doing,
ZH: 然后下个月，不管股票是涨是跌，再买10分之1
16:19 - 16:22
EN: buy a tenth more next month, and you do it for 10 months.
ZH: 然后下个月，不管股票是涨是跌，再买10分之1
16:22 - 16:24
EN: And that is scaling in.
ZH: 这就是分批入场 （注：定投——定期定额地加大投资）
16:24 - 16:25
EN: You might be scaling into a winning position;
ZH: 你可能是在盈利的时候加仓
16:25 - 16:28
EN: you might be scaling into a losing position.
ZH: 也可能在亏损的时候加仓
16:28 - 16:35
EN: But dollar-cost averaging is a common,
ZH: 对于长期投资地普通人来说， 平均成本定投是常见的、明智做法
16:30 - 16:35
EN: sensible way for long-term individual investors to enter the market.
ZH: 对于长期投资地普通人来说， 平均成本定投是常见的、明智做法
16:39 - 16:44
EN: And then another group of traders who scale in regularly are short-term traders
ZH: 另一个经常加仓的群体是短线交易者——
16:44 - 16:48
EN: - traders holding positions for a few days, a few weeks – and day traders.
ZH: 持仓几天、几周，或者日内交易
16:53 - 16:57
EN: Here we have a pretty strong rally, a very Tight Bull Channel.
ZH: 这里有相当强势的上涨——很窄的通道
16:57 - 16:59
EN: Probably the first reversal down will be limited.
ZH: 第1次下跌大概率只是回调
17:00 - 17:02
EN: Stop down here.
ZH: 多头的止损在这里
17:02 - 17:08
EN: If this is a bull trend, it should not fall below the bottom
ZH: 如果它真的是上涨趋势， 就不应该跌破最近一次强势突破的起涨点
17:06 - 17:08
EN: of the most recent strong bull breakout.
ZH: 如果它真的是上涨趋势， 就不应该跌破最近一次强势突破的起涨点
17:08 - 17:13
EN: Some traders might buy here with the intention of putting a stop below here,
ZH: 一些交易者会在这里买入，把止损放在下方
17:13 - 17:16
EN: and if it pulls back, they’ll buy more.
ZH: 如果回调，他们会买入更多
17:18 - 17:23
EN: One way to do it is you could buy with a limit order below that bear bar,
ZH: 一种方法是你可以在那根阴线下方挂限价买单
17:23 - 17:31
EN: betting will not fall below here, or they’ll simply buy more 10% lower
ZH: 押注不会跌破这个低点； 也可以在下方10%，或几个ticks的距离挂限价买单
17:28 - 17:31
EN: or a certain number of ticks or pips lower.
ZH: 押注不会跌破这个低点； 也可以在下方10%，或几个ticks的距离挂限价买单
17:33 - 17:35
EN: Or they’ll also buy on the reversal up.
ZH: 或者在反转向上时买入
17:35 - 17:40
EN: We have an ii bull flag after a strong reversal up from a Higher Low.
ZH: 低点抬高，强势反转上涨，后面是ii牛旗（买点）
17:45 - 17:47
EN: I mentioned dollar-cost averaging.
ZH: 我刚才提到了定投
Slide 007
Time: 17:45
Bilingual Transcript
17:48 - 17:52
EN: Investment advisors often tell their individual clients,
ZH: 投资顾问经常告诉他们的客户
17:52 - 17:55
EN: do not buy the entire position at one time.
ZH: 不要一次性满仓买入
17:55 - 18:00
EN: Instead, divide your entire account up into pieces
ZH: 而是应该把账户分成很多部分
18:00 - 18:03
EN: - like for example, 10 pieces or 12 pieces
ZH: ——比如，分成10份，或12份
18:03 - 18:08
EN: - and then you buy each piece every month or so until you have your full position.
ZH: 然后每个月买入，逐渐加大仓位
18:10 - 18:14
EN: For example, if this were a stock – let’s say it’s XYZ stock,
ZH: 例如，假设这是某支股票，代码是XYZ
18:14 - 18:20
EN: and you wanted to buy 10,000 units of the stock or 10,000 units
ZH: 你想买入10,000股，或者你想买入10,000手外汇，
18:20 - 18:25
EN: of a Forex position, and you’re planning to hold for a number of years, 5 years.
ZH: 然后计划持有几年，比如5年
18:25 - 18:30
EN: Instead of buying all 10,000 units or shares or contracts all at once,
ZH: 不要一次性买入10,000股
18:31 - 18:34
EN: you might go ahead and buy right when you make your decision.
ZH: 一些人在下定决心的时候，会一下子买入很多
18:34 - 18:38
EN: So let’s say sometime in here, you’re deciding, yeah, I really want to own this
ZH: 假设在这里的某个时候，你决定：我非常想买入这只股票
18:38 - 18:44
EN: and I want to hold it for a long time, but I don’t want to buy
ZH: 我想长期持有； 但我不想一下子就买入10,000股
18:42 - 18:44
EN: the full 10,000 units right now
ZH: 我想长期持有； 但我不想一下子就买入10,000股
18:44 - 18:51
EN: because suppose it just keeps falling all the way down here.
ZH: 万一它一直跌到这里，比如说，跌20%
18:48 - 18:51
EN: Then – let’s say it falls 20%
ZH: 万一它一直跌到这里，比如说，跌20%
18:51 - 18:54
EN: - then it has to go back up 20% for me just to get breakeven.
ZH: 那么它要涨回去25%，我也才刚好打平而已
18:54 - 18:57
EN: So maybe I’ll just buy part of my position.
ZH: 所以我只会买入一部分
18:57 - 19:02
EN: If it goes up higher, I’ll buy a part more higher,
ZH: 如果它上涨，我可以追涨买入更多，买入更多
19:01 - 19:02
EN: I’ll buy a part more higher.
ZH: 如果它上涨，我可以追涨买入更多，买入更多
19:03 - 19:06
EN: And instead, if it goes down, I can add to my position,
ZH: 相反，如果它下跌，我也可以加仓，
19:06 - 19:09
EN: relying on my stop here or here.
ZH: 依赖这里或这里的止损
19:10 - 19:14
EN: As long as my premise is still valid that I think it’s going to go up,
ZH: 只要我的前提仍然有效，我仍然认为它会上涨
19:14 - 19:19
EN: I’ll be comfortable adding to my position.
ZH: 我就可以很舒服地加仓
19:20 - 19:29
EN: So let’s say he started buying right here, and then he bought another 1,000 here,
ZH: 所以，假设他一开始在这里买入1,000股， 然后在这里、这里、这里，每次加仓1,000股
19:24 - 19:29
EN: 1,000 here, 1,000 here, 1,000 here, all the way – every month he bought 1,000.
ZH: 所以，假设他一开始在这里买入1,000股， 然后在这里、这里、这里，每次加仓1,000股
19:29 - 19:33
EN: Here at 10 months, this would be his average entry price.
ZH: 10个月后，这是他的平均成本价
19:33 - 19:37
EN: Even though he started buying here, his average price now is here.
ZH: 尽管他一开始买在高位，现在他的平均价格在这里
19:39 - 19:42
EN: And that’s including after a selloff.
ZH: ——回调之后的平均入场价
19:42 - 19:44
EN: Now he’s got a selloff and a reversal,
ZH: 回调之后，开始恢复上涨
19:44 - 19:49
EN: and he has a reasonable entry price now that we have that reversal.
ZH: 所以他的成本是合理的，可以在上涨趋势中赚很多钱
19:52 - 19:58
EN: The advantage to the trader is he avoids the uncertainty possibly buying too high.
ZH: 这样做的优点是，他避免了买在高位被套牢的不确定性
20:00 - 20:03
EN: So he increases his probability of profit
ZH: 所以他增加了盈利的概率
20:03 - 20:08
EN: because he’s getting an average entry price, a price between the high
ZH: 因为他的平均成本在过去一年之内高点和低点之间，
20:08 - 20:15
EN: and the low over the next year instead of possibly buying the high
ZH: 而不是买在最高点，只能期待市场涨回来让他解套
20:12 - 20:15
EN: over the next year and hoping for it to go higher.
ZH: 而不是买在最高点，只能期待市场涨回来让他解套
Slide 008
Time: 20:18
Bilingual Transcript
20:21 - 20:22
EN: This is a common situation.
ZH: 这种情况很常见
20:22 - 20:26
EN: Here we have a bull Micro Channel – 6, 7, 8 bars
ZH: 这里有一个上涨微通道——6、7、8根K线
20:26 - 20:29
EN: - and a beginner would look at that and say, “yeah, it’s going up”
ZH: 交易者看到了市场在不断上涨
20:31 - 20:38
EN: and he believes it’ll continue to go up as long as it stays above the bottom
ZH: 他相信，只要价格保持在最近的重要低点上方， 就还会继续上涨
20:35 - 20:38
EN: of the most recent strong last leg up.
ZH: 他相信，只要价格保持在最近的重要低点上方， 就还会继续上涨
20:43 - 20:47
EN: So let’s say he buys for any reason.
ZH: 假设他在某个地方买入了
20:47 - 20:51
EN: The sixth close, buys below that low, buys above this high,
ZH: 在它的收盘，或者在那个低点下方（挂限价买单）， 或者在这个高点上方（用突破买单）
20:51 - 20:54
EN: buys a bear bar betting that the first reversal down will fail.
ZH: 或者在阴线收盘买入，押注第1次回调会失败，等等
20:55 - 20:56
EN: His stop goes down here.
ZH: 他的止损在这里
21:02 - 21:08
EN: If he’s looking to buy up here and the stop is too far away, he can wait to buy,
ZH: 如果想在这里上方买入，但是觉得止损太远了， 那么可以等待——
21:08 - 21:16
EN: where a scale-in trader might add to a position and still use that correct stop.
ZH: 在其它多头会逢低加仓的地方买入， 并且仍然使用这个正确的止损
21:18 - 21:24
EN: For example, he might say, “Well, I don’t want to buy up here.
ZH: 例如，他可能觉得：“我不想在这里追涨，风险太大了
21:22 - 21:24
EN: The risk is too great.
ZH: 例如，他可能觉得：“我不想在这里追涨，风险太大了
21:24 - 21:32
EN: I’ll buy a pullback, maybe a 50% pullback, so that my risk would be half
ZH: 我想等回调，比如50%回调，那么风险就减小了一半。” 这样是ok的
21:29 - 21:32
EN: of what it would be had I bought up here.” That’s okay.
ZH: 我想等回调，比如50%回调，那么风险就减小了一半。” 这样是ok的
21:32 - 21:36
EN: The only problem is, sometimes you don’t get the pullback.
ZH: 唯一的问题是，偶尔市场不回调，一直涨
21:36 - 21:40
EN: So let’s say right here you’re planning on buying, looking for a 50% pullback.
ZH: 假设在这里的时候，你打算在50%回调买入
21:40 - 21:43
EN: You don’t get any pullback until all the way up here,
ZH: 然而市场一直涨到这里，才开始回调
21:43 - 21:46
EN: which is a much worse price had you bought right here.
ZH: 比你在这里买入的价格要高得多
21:51 - 21:53
EN: He waits for his 50% pullback,
ZH: 这里，他等到了50%
21:53 - 21:56
EN: and now he sees a pretty good reversal from a Higher Low.
ZH: 而且低点抬高，强势地反转上涨
21:56 - 22:02
EN: Strong reversal bar – down, up, good reversal, ii with a bull bar,
ZH: 强势的反转大阳线——下跌，上涨，很强的反转， 有ii结构，而且有阳线
22:02 - 22:07
EN: and he can add to his position here after a Micro Double Bottom.
ZH: 他可以在ii的上方加仓，而且左边有一个小双底
22:07 - 22:10
EN: Down, up, down, up.
ZH: 下跌，上涨，下跌，上涨
22:10 - 22:12
EN: Micro Double Bottom with a strong reversal up.
ZH: 小双底之后，强势的反转上涨
Slide 009
Time: 22:15
Bilingual Transcript
22:19 - 22:24
EN: Day traders, short-term traders, they’ll scale into losing trades to increase
ZH: 日内交易者、短线交易者，他们会在浮亏的时候加仓
22:24 - 22:29
EN: their probability of profit and reduce their chance of a loss.
ZH: 以此增加盈利的概率，减少亏损
22:31 - 22:37
EN: Again, whenever you try to increase your probability, you have to pay for it.
ZH: 然而我要再次强调，每当你尝试增加胜率的时候， 你必须为此付出代价
22:37 - 22:40
EN: Any time you’re going to get something good, you have to pay for it.
ZH: 任何时候你想要得到好处，都必须付出代价
22:40 - 22:47
EN: Nothing is free, and usually when you increase your probability,
ZH: 没有什么是免费的。 通常当你增加胜率的时候，你的风险也会增加
22:45 - 22:47
EN: you’re going to increase your risk.
ZH: 没有什么是免费的。 通常当你增加胜率的时候，你的风险也会增加
22:47 - 22:50
EN: You’re certainly going to reduce your risk/reward ratio.
ZH: 盈亏比肯定会变差
22:50 - 22:54
EN: Usually greater risk and sometimes less reward.
ZH: 通常是因为风险增加了，有时因为利润减小
22:58 - 23:01
EN: So let’s say a trader buys expecting a continued rally,
ZH: 假设一个交易者追涨了，期待继续上涨
23:01 - 23:08
EN: even if there is a deep pullback, as long as the pullback remains
ZH: 即使有深度回调，只要回调保持在最近一次突破的起涨点上方就没问题
23:06 - 23:08
EN: above the bottom of the most recent bull breakout.
ZH: 即使有深度回调，只要回调保持在最近一次突破的起涨点上方就没问题
23:08 - 23:11
EN: So that’s his premise: that it’s a bull trend
ZH: 所以他交易的前提是：这是一个上涨趋势
23:11 - 23:15
EN: as long as there’s not a credible top – this is not a credible top
ZH: 除非出现可靠的顶部——这不是一个可靠的顶部
23:15 - 23:21
EN: - and as long as any pullback, no matter how strong,
ZH: 不管回调多强，只要不跌破前期的重要低点， 那么他的前提就仍然成立
23:18 - 23:21
EN: remains above the bottom of the bull leg.
ZH: 不管回调多强，只要不跌破前期的重要低点， 那么他的前提就仍然成立
23:24 - 23:26
EN: He might buy here.
ZH: 假设他的初始仓位在这里买入
23:26 - 23:30
EN: He might buy this second consecutive strong bear close,
ZH: 他可以在连续第2根阴线的收盘加仓
23:30 - 23:32
EN: saying we got a bear breakout below these bars.
ZH: 价格跌破了这些低点
23:32 - 23:34
EN: We have a follow-through bar.
ZH: 然后有跟随的阴线
23:34 - 23:36
EN: Some bears will think this is Always In Short,
ZH: 一些空头会认为市场已经处于单边下跌
23:36 - 23:41
EN: but as long as it remains above this low, I’m going to bet
ZH: 但只要它保持在这个低点上方，
23:41 - 23:46
EN: that this breakout will fail and that it’s a bear trap,
ZH: 多头就会押注这个突破会失败，押注这是一个空头陷阱
23:46 - 23:55
EN: trapping bears into selling this close, selling what might turn out
ZH: 诱使空头在它的收盘卖出——这是上涨趋势中的回调， 诱使空头卖在回调的最低点
23:51 - 23:55
EN: to be the bottom of a pullback in a bull trend.
ZH: 诱使空头在它的收盘卖出——这是上涨趋势中的回调， 诱使空头卖在回调的最低点
23:56 - 24:02
EN: He might buy that close, knowing that weak bears will sell the close hoping
ZH: 所以多头会在它的收盘买入， 尽管会有空头在这里做空，押注价格向下跌破
24:00 - 24:04
EN: to break below here, but he still believes this trend is so strong,
ZH: 所以多头会在它的收盘买入， 尽管会有空头在这里做空，押注价格向下跌破 但多头仍然相信这是一个强上涨趋势
24:04 - 24:10
EN: any reversal attempt, even a strong one
ZH: 任何反转下跌的尝试都会失败， 哪怕看上去很吓人——连续的阴线收在最低
24:07 - 24:10
EN: - consecutive bear bars closing on its low – will fail.
ZH: 任何反转下跌的尝试都会失败， 哪怕看上去很吓人——连续的阴线收在最低
24:10 - 24:12
EN: So he’ll buy more lower.
ZH: 所以他会在低位买入更多
24:15 - 24:19
EN: If he’s sufficiently disappointed by the strength of this bear reversal,
ZH: 如果他对这么深的回调感到非常失望
24:19 - 24:24
EN: he might decide, “Okay, yeah, maybe we’re going to go sideways instead of up.
ZH: 他可能会决定：“好吧，也许市场要横盘了；
24:24 - 24:27
EN: Here’s my first entry price, here’s my second entry price,
ZH: 这是我的第1个入场价，这是第2个入场价
24:27 - 24:28
EN: here’s my average entry price.
ZH: 我的平均入场价在这里
24:28 - 24:31
EN: I’ll place a limit order to get out breakeven.”
ZH: 我在这里挂限价卖单，打平离场。”
24:31 - 24:38
EN: So if he buys here and immediately places a limit order at the midpoint
ZH: 所以在加仓之后，他立刻在两个入场价的中点挂了限价卖单，在这里离场
24:36 - 24:38
EN: of his two entries, he might get out here.
ZH: 所以在加仓之后，他立刻在两个入场价的中点挂了限价卖单，在这里离场
24:39 - 24:48
EN: In that case he would be averaging into his trade to avoid a loss
ZH: 在这种情况下，他加仓的目的是避免亏损，而不是为了盈利
24:45 - 24:48
EN: and not so much to make a profit.
ZH: 在这种情况下，他加仓的目的是避免亏损，而不是为了盈利
24:48 - 24:51
EN: However, he could hold and he would end up with a very nice profit.
ZH: 然而，他原本可以继续持有，最终赚很多钱
24:54 - 24:58
EN: Another alternative is he could buy that, buy more higher,
ZH: 另一种选择：同样是在这里买入，然后在下方加仓
24:58 - 25:03
EN: and then try to make a profit on his second entry
ZH: 他可以第1笔仓位打平，加仓的部分赚钱
25:01 - 25:03
EN: and get out breakeven on his first.
ZH: 他可以第1笔仓位打平，加仓的部分赚钱
25:03 - 25:06
EN: So he buys here and immediately places a limit order
ZH: 加仓之后，立刻在初始入场价格挂限价卖单
25:06 - 25:09
EN: to exit the entire position at his first entry.
ZH: 在这个地方平仓
25:09 - 25:14
EN: So he gets out breakeven on this trade and then with a profit on this trade.
ZH: 所以初始仓位打平，加仓的部分赚钱
25:14 - 25:17
EN: That’s another common approach that traders use.
ZH: 这是另一种交易者经常使用的方法
Slide 010
Time: 25:20
Bilingual Transcript
25:20 - 25:24
EN: Now I’m going to talk about scaling into a winning trade.
ZH: 接下来我要讲盈利加仓
Slide 011
Time: 25:26
Bilingual Transcript
25:28 - 25:29
EN: Strong bull trend.
ZH: 强上涨趋势
25:30 - 25:32
EN: A bull might buy a pullback.
ZH: 多头会在回调时买入
25:33 - 25:37
EN: An attempt at a reversal, but then the reversal looks like it’s going to fail.
ZH: 尝试反转下跌，但随后看起来会失败
25:38 - 25:42
EN: The bull might buy the resumption up from the pullback,
ZH: 在回调结束，恢复上涨的时候，多头会买入
25:42 - 25:45
EN: so the breakout above the pullback bar.
ZH: ——在突破回调K线高点的时候买入
25:47 - 25:50
EN: Stop obviously at the bottom of the bull breakout,
ZH: 止损显然在多头突破的起涨点下方
25:51 - 25:55
EN: and he might add to his longs as the market continues to rally.
ZH: 随着市场继续上涨，他可以盈利加仓
25:55 - 25:56
EN: He could buy for any reason.
ZH: 他可以根据任何理由买入
25:57 - 26:01
EN: But he wants the space between each of his entries to be at least
ZH: 但他希望每次买入之间的间隔，
26:01 - 26:05
EN: as big as a minimum scalp, so he doesn’t want to buy
ZH: 至少距离一笔剥头皮交易的距离
26:05 - 26:08
EN: and then buy later at the same price.
ZH: 也就是说，他不想在同样的价格多次买入
26:08 - 26:10
EN: If he’s going to be buying as the market’s going up,
ZH: 如果他要在市场上涨时追涨，
26:10 - 26:17
EN: he wants the second entry to be at least the size of a scalp
ZH: 他加仓的位置至少要比前一个买点高出一定的距离
26:15 - 26:17
EN: more than the first entry,
ZH: 他加仓的位置至少要比前一个买点高出一定的距离
26:19 - 26:24
EN: and he has to keep calculating his total risk
ZH: 并且他必须根据新的仓位大小和新的止损距离， 不断计算他的总风险
26:22 - 26:31
EN: based upon the position size and his stop, and he has to make sure
ZH: 并且他必须根据新的仓位大小和新的止损距离， 不断计算他的总风险 他需要保证他的风险始终维持在舒适区之内
26:27 - 26:31
EN: that his risk remains within his comfort zone.
ZH: 他需要保证他的风险始终维持在舒适区之内
26:32 - 26:37
EN: Another bull flag, another bull breakout above the bull flag.
ZH: 再次回调（牛旗），向上突破牛旗， 可以加仓买入更多
26:36 - 26:37
EN: Buy more.
ZH: 再次回调（牛旗），向上突破牛旗， 可以加仓买入更多
26:38 - 26:40
EN: We have a bull breakout to a new high.
ZH: 向上突破创新高
26:40 - 26:46
EN: Put the stop below that new bull breakout, which is above his first entry price.
ZH: 把止损放在新的起涨点下方， 新的止损高于他的第1次入场价
26:46 - 26:48
EN: So now he’s entered twice.
ZH: 现在，他买入了两次
26:48 - 26:52
EN: His position is twice as big as it was initially,
ZH: 他的仓位是最初的两倍
26:52 - 26:56
EN: and his stop now is around his first entry.
ZH: 并且新的止损在第1次入场价格附近
26:58 - 27:06
EN: Another bull flag, a High 2 bull flag, two small legs down
ZH: 再次回调，高2牛旗，两段小的下跌—— 1，反弹，2——然后有阳线
27:03 - 27:06
EN: - one, pullback, two – and then we have a bull bar.
ZH: 再次回调，高2牛旗，两段小的下跌—— 1，反弹，2——然后有阳线
27:06 - 27:08
EN: Maybe he’ll buy more on the resumption up.
ZH: 他可以在恢复上涨的时候买入更多
27:12 - 27:16
EN: Here, this looks like we’re getting small bars, doji bars.
ZH: 这里开始出现很多小K线、小十字星
27:16 - 27:20
EN: We might be forming a Tight Trading Range, so his premise might change.
ZH: 正在进入窄震荡区间，所以他的前提可能发生了变化
27:20 - 27:22
EN: At this point he might be thinking,
ZH: 此时他可能会想：
27:22 - 27:27
EN: “Well maybe I’m buying a bull channel instead of a bull breakout.
ZH: “也许不再是突破阶段，而是已经进入了通道，
27:27 - 27:29
EN: Maybe I’ll start using a tighter stop,”
ZH: 现在用更窄的止损会更好一些。”
27:29 - 27:31
EN: especially if the position is getting big.
ZH: 尤其当仓位越来越大的时候（需要减小风险）
27:31 - 27:35
EN: If his premise is still valid that it’s now a bull channel instead
ZH: 如果他的前提仍然有效， 即使突破阶段结束，现在进入上涨通道
27:35 - 27:39
EN: of a bull breakout, it still should form Higher Lows.
ZH: 低点仍然应该不断抬高
27:39 - 27:43
EN: So this low should stay above that low, so he could use a tight stop,
ZH: 这个低点应该保持在那个低点上方， 所以他可以使用窄止损
27:43 - 27:48
EN: especially if he’s been adding on and now has a large position.
ZH: 尤其是因为他一直在加仓，现在的仓位已经很大
Slide 012
Time: 27:50
Bilingual Transcript
27:53 - 27:55
EN: Very strong bull breakout.
ZH: 之前是非常强势的多头突破
28:00 - 28:12
EN: Traders have to be very quick to reduce their position size
ZH: 但如果突破不再强势，而是开始转变到上涨通道或震荡区间，
28:05 - 28:12
EN: to a normal position size if the breakout is no longer a strong bull breakout,
ZH: 但如果突破不再强势，而是开始转变到上涨通道或震荡区间，
28:11 - 28:15
EN: if it starts to convert into something else
ZH: 但如果突破不再强势，而是开始转变到上涨通道或震荡区间， 交易者就必须非常迅速地把仓位减小到正常的规模
28:13 - 28:15
EN: like a bull channel or a Trading Range.
ZH: 交易者就必须非常迅速地把仓位减小到正常的规模
28:20 - 28:29
EN: An experienced trader will be very good at detecting a loss of momentum
ZH: 有经验的交易者很擅长察觉到上涨动能的消失， 知道市场可能要进入通道或震荡区间
28:25 - 28:29
EN: and a possible transition into a channel or a Trading Range.
ZH: 有经验的交易者很擅长察觉到上涨动能的消失， 知道市场可能要进入通道或震荡区间
28:32 - 28:35
EN: If at any point their premise is no longer valid,
ZH: 一旦他们的前提不再成立，
28:35 - 28:37
EN: they’ll exit their entire position.
ZH: 他们就会立刻全部离场
28:38 - 28:42
EN: So if they buy here and buy more here and buy more here,
ZH: 如果他们在这里买入，然后不断加仓、加仓
28:42 - 28:50
EN: they’re buying it on the premise that perhaps it’s a breakout
ZH: 他们买入的前提是，这个突破还会继续持续下去， 过一段时间再进入通道
28:46 - 28:50
EN: that may continue up much higher before it transitions into a channel.
ZH: 他们买入的前提是，这个突破还会继续持续下去， 过一段时间再进入通道
28:54 - 28:58
EN: However, if the market does something to make them question that premise
ZH: 然而，如果市场的价格行为让他们对这个前提产生怀疑，
Slide 013
Time: 28:55
Bilingual Transcript
28:58 - 29:02
EN: that the breakout will continue a long time, they’ll be quick to get out.
ZH: 这个突破看上去不会持续下去，那么他们就会立刻离场
29:03 - 29:11
EN: Here, we have one push up, two pushes up, possibly three pushes up
ZH: 第1次上涨，第2次上涨， 这可能是第3推，变成抛物线楔形顶，有反转下跌的风险
29:07 - 29:11
EN: to a Parabolic Wedge Top, and we might reverse at that point.
ZH: 第1次上涨，第2次上涨， 这可能是第3推，变成抛物线楔形顶，有反转下跌的风险
29:12 - 29:15
EN: We got a doji here, a small bar here, a doji here.
ZH: 十字星，小K线，十字星
29:15 - 29:22
EN: That’s looking different from this, where we had consecutive bull bars,
ZH: 这和之前的价格行为不一样——连续的阳线， 连续的阳线，连续的阳线，
29:19 - 29:22
EN: consecutive bull bars, consecutive bull bars.
ZH: 这和之前的价格行为不一样——连续的阳线， 连续的阳线，连续的阳线，
29:23 - 29:24
EN: The market’s starting to look different.
ZH: 市场看上去不一样了
29:24 - 29:28
EN: We have a possible Buy Climax and a tail and a doji.
ZH: 这是潜在的抢购高潮，有上影线，然后是十字星
29:28 - 29:33
EN: A small bull bar and then a doji bar and then a possible Parabolic Wedge
ZH: 小阳线，十字星，
29:33 - 29:39
EN: - one, two, maybe we’ll just go up a little bit
ZH: 而且是潜在的抛物线楔形顶——1，2—— 可能还有一小段上涨，形成第3推，然后开始下跌
29:35 - 29:39
EN: and form three, and then start to reverse down.
ZH: 而且是潜在的抛物线楔形顶——1，2—— 可能还有一小段上涨，形成第3推，然后开始下跌
29:40 - 29:48
EN: When traders see that, they’re thinking that maybe the market is transitioning
ZH: 当交易者看到这些特征， 他们认为市场可能正在从强上涨趋势
29:46 - 29:54
EN: from a strong bull breakout phase into either a Trading Range or a channel.
ZH: 当交易者看到这些特征， 他们认为市场可能正在从强上涨趋势 转变成震荡区间，或者通道
29:54 - 29:57
EN: Again, look at the character of the bars.
ZH: 再仔细看一下这些K线
29:57 - 29:58
EN: A bear bar now.
ZH: 阴线收在最低
29:58 - 30:01
EN: We have not had a bear bar since here.
ZH: 从这根阴线开始，还没有出现过收在最低的阴线
30:01 - 30:02
EN: Small bar.
ZH: 小K线
30:02 - 30:05
EN: This bar is below that bar.
ZH: 这根K线低于那根K线
30:05 - 30:10
EN: Here we have been pulling back for 5 or 6 bars, a breakout with shrinking bodies,
ZH: 这里已经回调了5~6根K线， 向上突破，但是阳线的体积都很小
30:10 - 30:13
EN: and then a doji, small doji, doji, small bar.
ZH: 然后是十字星，小十字星，十字星，小K线
30:13 - 30:17
EN: So these bars over the past 10 bars are different from these bars,
ZH: 最近这10根K线，和之前的完全不一样
30:18 - 30:21
EN: so the premise of a strong breakout has changed.
ZH: 所以交易的前提已经发生了改变
30:21 - 30:23
EN: This is no longer a strong bull breakout.
ZH: 这不再是一个强势的多头突破
30:23 - 30:26
EN: It’s a bull channel, but it might also be a Trading Range.
ZH: 这是一个上涨通道，也可能是震荡区间
30:26 - 30:28
EN: We could easily trade back down here.
ZH: 价格很容易回调到这里
30:29 - 30:33
EN: When you start to see smaller bars, overlapping bars, the channel,
ZH: 当你开始看到更小的K线，重叠的K线，通道
30:33 - 30:38
EN: the slope of this is not as steeply up as is this.
ZH: 上涨的斜率不再像之前一样陡峭
30:39 - 30:43
EN: You’re getting Tight Trading Range price action here, here, here
ZH: 在这里、这里、这里出现窄震荡区间的价格行为
30:43 - 30:46
EN: - in fact, the entire thing might be part of a big Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 实际上，这一段可能就是整个窄震荡区间的一部分
30:50 - 30:56
EN: So at that point – now we have a Wedge,
ZH: 所以在这个时候——楔形顶，潜在的高点抬高的大反转
30:53 - 30:56
EN: possibly a Wedge Higher High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 所以在这个时候——楔形顶，潜在的高点抬高的大反转
30:56 - 30:58
EN: Bull trend, small breakout Wedge.
ZH: 上涨趋势，3次小的推动向上突破
30:58 - 31:01
EN: It’s still a Small Pullback Bull Trend at this point,
ZH: 这仍然是一个回调很小的上涨趋势
31:01 - 31:03
EN: but it’s no longer a breakout.
ZH: 但它不再是突破阶段
31:03 - 31:07
EN: A trader might want to reduce his position back down to a normal position size
ZH: 交易者最好要把仓位减小到正仓的规模
31:07 - 31:14
EN: at this point had he bought here and then added here,
ZH: 如果他在这里买入，然后在这里加仓，现在是两倍； 这里再次加仓，所以是3倍仓位
31:11 - 31:14
EN: so a double position, and then added here, so a triple position.
ZH: 如果他在这里买入，然后在这里加仓，现在是两倍； 这里再次加仓，所以是3倍仓位
31:15 - 31:22
EN: At this point he may cut back down
ZH: 此时他最好把仓位减小到正常规模，或者全部离场
31:17 - 31:22
EN: to a normal size position or he may exit entirely.
ZH: 此时他最好把仓位减小到正常规模，或者全部离场
31:22 - 31:27
EN: If he exited entirely, look at what happened over the next 30 or 40 bars.
ZH: 如果他没有离场，看看接下来的30或40根K线发生了什么？
31:27 - 31:28
EN: No profit.
ZH: 利润没有增加
31:28 - 31:31
EN: Exiting entirely would make sense.
ZH: 所以全部离场是合理的
Slide 014
Time: 31:35
Bilingual Transcript
31:35 - 31:37
EN: Here we have a very strong bear trend.
ZH: 非常强的下降趋势
31:37 - 31:39
EN: It’s a Sell The Close bear trend.
ZH: 这是一个“卖收盘”的下降趋势
31:39 - 31:42
EN: At this point or that point it’s a Sell The Close bear trend.
ZH: 在这里或这里，已经变成了“卖收盘”的下降趋势
31:42 - 31:44
EN: Traders are selling.
ZH: 交易者在不断卖出
31:44 - 31:46
EN: They’ll sell that close, this close, this close.
ZH: 他们会在它、它、它的收盘卖出
31:46 - 31:47
EN: They’ll sell the bull close.
ZH: 他们也会在阳线的收盘卖出（押注反弹失败）
31:47 - 31:49
EN: They’ll sell that close, this close, this close.
ZH: 他们会在它、它、它的收盘卖出
31:54 - 31:58
EN: Here are examples of possible entries.
ZH: 这些都是合理的做空入场点
31:58 - 31:59
EN: They can add on.
ZH: 空头可以不断加仓
31:59 - 32:03
EN: They can just keep – they take a position here, sell more here, sell more here.
ZH: 初始入场点在这里，然后加仓，加仓
32:03 - 32:06
EN: You’re not going to sell more here if you sell here
ZH: 如果你在这里卖出了，就不要在这里加仓
32:06 - 32:10
EN: because this is not at least a scalp size below this.
ZH: 因为两者之间没有拉开距离
32:11 - 32:14
EN: A lot of traders will take one of these trades, maybe one or two.
ZH: 交易者可以在这些入场点中选择一个或两个 （注：并不是让你每个地方都去加仓）
32:14 - 32:18
EN: A lot of traders will take one, scalp out, and then take the next one.
ZH: 很多人入场之后会剥头皮离场，然后再次入场
32:19 - 32:22
EN: But let’s say you’re adding to your position and you take two or three of those.
ZH: 假设你加仓了，在其中的两三个地方加仓做空
32:25 - 32:26
EN: Then fine.
ZH: 这么做没有问题
32:26 - 32:34
EN: You’ve got to be trading small enough so that a stop up here will not create
ZH: 你的仓位必须足够小，不会因为上方的止损而感到压力， 导致无法正确地管理交易
32:32 - 32:34
EN: so much risk that you will not manage your trade properly,
ZH: 你的仓位必须足够小，不会因为上方的止损而感到压力， 导致无法正确地管理交易
32:34 - 32:40
EN: and so much risk that you have a greater risk than you have on any other trade.
ZH: 你在这一笔交易中所承担的风险，不应该超过平时的其它交易
32:41 - 32:46
EN: And most traders cannot think fast enough to sell – sell more, sell more,
ZH: 而且大多数交易者没有这么快的反应—— 不断地加仓、加仓、加仓
32:46 - 32:50
EN: sell more – and they should only take one of these entries.
ZH: 所以选择一个入场点就足够了
32:50 - 32:51
EN: Doesn’t matter which one.
ZH: 只要合理就可以
32:51 - 32:55
EN: Any one, and then use the appropriate stop and then just hold for a swing
ZH: 任何一个入场点都可以，设置正确的止损，
32:55 - 32:58
EN: until there’s a pretty strong reversal up and then get out down here.
ZH: 然后持有做波段交易，直到出现了强势的反转上涨—— 在这里离场
33:01 - 33:07
EN: Some traders will sell here or here, and then see these additional entries.
ZH: 一些交易者在这里或这里做空之后， 又看到了合理的入场点
33:07 - 33:11
EN: Instead of adding them to their swing position, they might scalp.
ZH: 他们可能会用新的入场点来剥头皮， 而不是全部一起做波段交易
33:11 - 33:14
EN: So you sell here, here’s another sell – I’ll sell this one for a scalp.
ZH: 比如，在这里做空之后，看到了新的入场点—— 做空剥头皮
33:14 - 33:17
EN: Here’s another sell – I’ll sell this one for a scalp.
ZH: 新的入场点——做空剥头皮
33:17 - 33:19
EN: Another sell, I’ll sell for a scalp.
ZH: 新的入场点——做空剥头皮
33:19 - 33:25
EN: So they hold their initial swing entry and then they scalp additional entries.
ZH: 也就是说，初始仓位一直持有，做波段交易； 然后一路上找机会剥头皮
33:27 - 33:31
EN: And then other traders, as I said, some experts will just keep adding
ZH: 另外一些交易者，就像前面所讲的，会继续加仓，
33:31 - 33:37
EN: to their position until they believe their premise is no longer valid.
ZH: 直到他们的前提不再成立为止
33:42 - 33:46
EN: Low 1, Low 2, so a Low 1 or a Low 2 bear flag.
ZH: 低1，低2，所以是低2熊旗
33:46 - 33:48
EN: Here we have a pause bar.
ZH: 这里有一个暂停K线
33:48 - 33:50
EN: We went above it, so this is a pullback,
ZH: 突破了前1根K线的高点，所以这是一次反弹
33:50 - 33:52
EN: and that makes this a Low 1 sell signal bar.
ZH: 所以它就变成了低1信号K
33:52 - 33:58
EN: So some traders will sell below the low of that bar on the reversal down.
ZH: 一些交易者会在它的低点下方卖出做空
33:59 - 34:03
EN: There are many ways to sell in a bear trend.
ZH: 在下降趋势中有很多卖出做空的方法
Slide 015
Time: 34:05
Bilingual Transcript
34:08 - 34:13
EN: As I said earlier, if you’re scaling into a winning trade,
ZH: 正如之前所说，如果你想盈利加仓
34:13 - 34:18
EN: you want the next entry to be at least a scalp below the first one.
ZH: 加仓的位置至少要间隔一笔剥头皮交易的规模
34:18 - 34:20
EN: So if a scalp in the Emini is 1 point,
ZH: 对于ES期货来说，剥头皮的最小规模是1个点 （注：当时只有2000点；现在最小规模是3~5个点）
34:20 - 34:25
EN: you don’t want to be selling again unless you’re 1 point lower.
ZH: 等市场下跌至少1个点之后，再盈利加仓
34:28 - 34:29
EN: Consecutive Sell Climaxes.
ZH: 连续抛售高潮
34:29 - 34:34
EN: Climax, big trend bar, so a climax, big trend bar, so a climax.
ZH: 大阴线，大阴线，所以是抛售高潮
34:37 - 34:41
EN: So if you were scaling in and you see consecutive Sell Climaxes,
ZH: 如果你加仓做空了，然后看到连续的抛售高潮
34:41 - 34:44
EN: you know there’s a risk of a pullback or maybe even a Trading Range.
ZH: 你就知道存在反弹的风险，甚至会开始进入震荡区间
34:45 - 34:50
EN: It’s a good time to reduce your position, or possibly even get out entirely
ZH: 这是减仓（保护利润）的好机会，甚至可以全部离场
34:50 - 34:53
EN: and then wait for another sell signal before selling again.
ZH: 然后耐心等待重新入场的机会 （注：比如等待TBTL的反弹结束再做空）
34:55 - 34:59
EN: We had a strong breakout and then we got consecutive Sell Climaxes,
ZH: 强势地向下跌破，然后出现连续的抛售高潮
34:59 - 35:02
EN: so the premise of a strong breakout is no longer valid.
ZH: 所以突破阶段已经结束
35:07 - 35:07
EN: Look at this.
ZH: 看这个
35:07 - 35:12
EN: The strongest pair of bear bars occurring 20 bars into a trend.
ZH: 趋势持续超过20根K线，再出现最大的两根阴线
35:12 - 35:17
EN: You have to be thinking about the possibility of an Exhaustion Gap,
ZH: 你必须考虑到它是竭尽型缺口的可能性
35:17 - 35:20
EN: a final Sell Climax and the end of the trend.
ZH: 是下降趋势末尾的抛售高潮（的可能性）
35:20 - 35:25
EN: So whenever you see the strongest pair of bear bars occurring late in a trend,
ZH: 每当你在趋势后期看到最强的大阴线
35:25 - 35:29
EN: you have to be thinking that 75% chance the gap
ZH: 你就必须考虑到，有75%的概率，
35:29 - 35:33
EN: between this close and this low will probably close.
ZH: 它和它之间的缺口会被回补
35:33 - 35:38
EN: It’s probably an Exhaustion Gap, not a Measuring Gap for a Measured Move down.
ZH: 这大概率是一个竭尽型缺口， 而不是还会下跌到MM目标位的测量型缺口
35:39 - 35:44
EN: So that is a good reason for bears to exit.
ZH: 所以这是空头止盈的好机会
35:45 - 35:48
EN: Smart bears will buy back their shorts here.
ZH: 聪明的空头会在这里平仓
35:48 - 35:50
EN: It’s no longer Sell The Close.
ZH: 这不再是“卖收盘”的下降趋势了
35:50 - 35:55
EN: We have consecutive Sell Climaxes – one, two, three, four, five, and then six,
ZH: 已经有连续的抛售高潮——1，2，3，4，5，然后6
35:55 - 35:59
EN: and we have a huge Sell Climax very late, 20 or more bars into the trend.
ZH: 趋势已经持续超过20根K线，巨大的抛售高潮
35:59 - 36:02
EN: The bears know it’s probably not going to go much further,
ZH: 空头知道不会再下跌太多了
36:02 - 36:05
EN: and in fact we’ll probably get a couple legs sideways to up.
ZH: 大概率会有两段横盘或上涨
36:05 - 36:11
EN: So a smart bear would buy back his shorts here, and a smart bull,
ZH: 所以一个聪明的空头会在这里止盈离场
36:11 - 36:13
EN: aggressive bull, would buy here.
ZH: 而一个聪明、激进的多头，会在这里买入
36:13 - 36:17
EN: Other bulls will wait to buy the reversal up, but they could buy here
ZH: 一些多头会等待，在反转上涨的时候买入； 但他们也可以在这里买入
36:17 - 36:22
EN: and then put a stop down here, maybe based upon a Measured Move down from here,
ZH: 然后设置宽止损，比如放在MM目标位的下方，
36:22 - 36:26
EN: thinking that it’s strong enough maybe we get a small second leg down.
ZH: 给市场留出第2段下跌的空间
36:26 - 36:30
EN: But if we do get a second leg down, we’ll probably then reverse
ZH: 就算有小的第2段下跌，大概率还是会反转上涨
36:30 - 36:36
EN: - either reverse here or here, or maybe we get one more small leg down
ZH: ——要么在这里就反转上涨； 要么在小的第2段下跌之后，再反转上涨
36:35 - 36:36
EN: and then we reverse.
ZH: ——要么在这里就反转上涨； 要么在小的第2段下跌之后，再反转上涨
Slide 016
Time: 36:40
Bilingual Transcript
36:41 - 36:50
EN: If you’re adding to a losing position, you only want to add to your position
ZH: 如果你想在浮亏的时候加仓， 前提必须是：你相信这笔交易仍然成立
36:46 - 36:50
EN: if you believe that your original position is still valid.
ZH: 如果你想在浮亏的时候加仓， 前提必须是：你相信这笔交易仍然成立
36:51 - 36:55
EN: So let’s say you look at this and say, oh, it’s a Buy The Close bull trend.
ZH: 假设你看到这个行情，认为这是一个“买收盘”的上涨趋势
36:55 - 36:56
EN: It’s not all that strong.
ZH: 并不是特别强势
36:56 - 36:59
EN: We have tails, we have bear bars, tails.
ZH: 有上影线，有阴线，下影线
36:59 - 37:02
EN: This looks like a bull trend in what will end up as a Trading Range,
ZH: 看起来它最终会是震荡区间中的上涨波段
37:02 - 37:05
EN: but it may go up much higher before it begins the Trading Range.
ZH: 但在开始震荡前，它也许还能再涨一些
37:06 - 37:13
EN: It’s okay to buy here if you’re willing to put a stop all the way down
ZH: 如果你愿意把止损放在起涨点的下方， 在这里追涨是可以的
37:11 - 37:13
EN: below the bottom of the bull leg.
ZH: 如果你愿意把止损放在起涨点的下方， 在这里追涨是可以的
37:13 - 37:16
EN: Putting it down below the bottom of the Buy Climax is not good
ZH: 把止损放在抢购高潮的起点下方并不是最好的选择，
37:17 - 37:21
EN: because if this is a bull leg in what will become a Trading Range,
ZH: 因为如果它最终真的要变成震荡区间，
37:21 - 37:25
EN: it usually will fall below the bottom of the final Buy Climax.
ZH: 最后一次抢购高潮的起涨点很容易被跌破，然后立刻上涨
37:30 - 37:33
EN: A trader buying up here, he knows he’s buying in a weak rally
ZH: 在这里追涨的交易者，知道他是在一个弱趋势中买入
37:33 - 37:36
EN: that’s probably a bull leg in what will become a Trading Range.
ZH: 他知道这个上涨波段最终会变成震荡区间
37:36 - 37:38
EN: He sees the Wedge Top.
ZH: 他也看到了楔形顶
37:39 - 37:43
EN: He could buy hoping that we go up a little bit further and he could make a profit,
ZH: 他因为两个理由而追涨—— 再上涨一些，他可以剥头皮离场
37:43 - 37:48
EN: or he could buy knowing that we may pull back deeply
ZH: 或者，就算有深度的回调——
37:48 - 37:51
EN: - because if it’s a Trading Range, we could get a very deep pullback.
ZH: 因为是震荡区间，可能会有非常大的回调
37:51 - 37:55
EN: However, if it’s a Broad Bull Channel, the deep pullback should stay
ZH: 然而，如果这是一个宽上涨通道，
37:55 - 37:58
EN: above the bottom of the most recent leg up.
ZH: 回调就不应该跌破前期一个重要的低点
37:59 - 38:04
EN: A trader buying up here only buys up here if he’s going to put a stop down here.
ZH: 交易者不应该在这么高的位置追涨， 除非愿意把初始止损放在这里
38:06 - 38:08
EN: Strong bear reversal.
ZH: 强势的空头反转
38:08 - 38:12
EN: It’s possible that his premise is no longer valid,
ZH: 也许他的前提已经不再成立
38:12 - 38:15
EN: that we’re not in a Broad Bull Channel or any kind of a bull trend.
ZH: 也许并不是宽上涨通道，不再是上涨趋势
38:15 - 38:20
EN: Instead, we could be in a Trading Range or in a bear swing.
ZH: 而是变成了震荡区间，或者是下跌的波段
38:24 - 38:27
EN: Most traders – they got a bear breakout, a pullback,
ZH: 空头突破，（50%）反弹，
38:27 - 38:32
EN: and now we have a Low 2 short – Low 1, Low 2 – most traders should get out
ZH: 然后出现了低2做空入场点——低1，低2—— 大部分多头应该离场
38:32 - 38:35
EN: either on that close, above this bar, below that bar,
ZH: 要么在它的收盘，或者在它的上方（押注反弹失败） 或者在它的下方
38:35 - 38:37
EN: below this bar, and then just wait.
ZH: 或者在它的下方离场，然后等待
38:37 - 38:41
EN: But some traders will hold and put their stop down here
ZH: 但一些交易者会继续持有，把止损放在这里
38:41 - 38:43
EN: and then look to buy a reversal up lower.
ZH: 然后等着在向上反转的时候加仓
38:47 - 38:51
EN: Just like the rally had problems – it was weak – look at the selloff.
ZH: 就像之前的上涨有问题——趋势弱—— 这个下跌也是一样
38:51 - 38:56
EN: A big bear bar, but a disappointing follow-through bar and then a doji bar,
ZH: 大阴线，但是跟随令人失望，然后是十字星
38:56 - 39:00
EN: doji, doji, small bar, doji, doji.
ZH: 十字星，十字星，小K线，十字星，十字星
39:00 - 39:03
EN: Just like this looked like a bull leg in what would become a Trading Range,
ZH: 就像之前，看起来是震荡区间中的上涨波段
39:04 - 39:07
EN: this looks like a bear leg in a Trading Range
ZH: 这看起来也只是震荡区间中的下跌波段
39:07 - 39:09
EN: and not the start of a strong bear trend.
ZH: 而不是一个强下降趋势的开始
39:10 - 39:14
EN: A bull who bought here might hold long, stop down here.
ZH: 一些在这里追涨的多头，会选择继续持有，依赖初始止损
39:14 - 39:19
EN: Some traders don’t like to be getting in, getting out, getting in, getting out.
ZH: 因为有的人不喜欢反复入场、离场，进进出出
39:19 - 39:24
EN: They just buy and hold as long as their premise is still valid,
ZH: 只要前提仍然成立，他们买入之后就坚定持有，
39:24 - 39:27
EN: and they use an appropriate stop which is often very wide.
ZH: 依靠一个合理的止损——通常很宽
39:31 - 39:36
EN: The scale-in bull who bought here with the intention of scaling in lower
ZH: 分批买入的多头在这里入场之后，打算在更低的位置加仓
39:36 - 39:41
EN: as long as his premise was valid, he buys here with a stop down here,
ZH: 只要前提仍然成立，他就依赖这个初始止损
39:41 - 39:46
EN: but he’s buying small enough so that he can buy again on a reversal up
ZH: 但他的仓位非常小，所以可以在反转上涨时加仓
39:46 - 39:50
EN: above a bull bar or above here, a Double Bottom Higher Low.
ZH: 在阳线上方加仓，或者在这里——低点抬高的双底
39:51 - 39:56
EN: So he buys here and then buys more here or here, stop here, but he makes sure
ZH: 所以他在这里买入，然后在这里或这里买入更多， 止损放在这里
39:56 - 40:00
EN: that he’s trading small enough so that his combined position
ZH: 但是他会确保仓位足够小，
40:00 - 40:04
EN: does not create more risk than any other trade.
ZH: 不会比平时其它交易冒更大的风险
40:09 - 40:13
EN: So he bought here and he bought more here or here, stop down here.
ZH: 所以他在这里买入，在这里或者里加仓，止损在这里
Slide 017
Time: 40:10
Bilingual Transcript
40:16 - 40:19
EN: As I said earlier, these scale-in bulls often exit
ZH: 正如之前所说，这些分批入场的多头
40:19 - 40:22
EN: the entire position back at their original entry.
ZH: 经常会在初始入场价格全部离场
40:22 - 40:25
EN: So they get out breakeven on their first entry
ZH: 所以他们的初始仓位打平
40:25 - 40:29
EN: and then with a profit on their second entry, whichever two it was.
ZH: 在下方加仓的部分可以赚钱——不管是在哪里加仓的
40:29 - 40:34
EN: However, a bull who buys here and he places his limit order to get out
ZH: 假设一个多头在这里加仓之后，原本在这里挂好了止盈的限价卖单
40:34 - 40:38
EN: of his entire position here, breakeven on the first, profit on the second,
ZH: 打算初始仓位打平、加仓的部分赚钱
40:38 - 40:42
EN: and then he sees this – it starts to become a Buy The Close bull trend
ZH: 但是他看到了这个——市场进入了“买收盘”的上涨趋势
40:42 - 40:46
EN: - he might decide to only exit half of his position here
ZH: 他可能会改变计划，只离场一部分
40:46 - 40:50
EN: because this is such a strong bull breakout, we’re probably going higher.
ZH: 因为这个突破这么强势，大概率还会再上一些
40:54 - 40:58
EN: Biggest bull bar in a rally that’s lasted more than 20 bars
ZH: 上涨趋势持续超过20根K线之后，再出现最大的大阳线
40:58 - 41:00
EN: - probably an Exhaustion Gap.
ZH: ——大概率是竭尽型缺口
41:00 - 41:04
EN: So the gap between this close and this high probably will close,
ZH: 所以它和这个高点之间的缺口大概率会被填补
41:04 - 41:07
EN: so we’ll probably reverse down below that high.
ZH: 大概率会回调到这个高点的下方
41:07 - 41:11
EN: And then we have a bear bar here and a Parabolic Wedge.
ZH: 抛物线楔形顶之后，出现了收在最低的阴线
41:11 - 41:14
EN: We have a bull breakout above a bull channel,
ZH: 尝试加速突破上涨通道
41:14 - 41:17
EN: probably going to fail and go at least sideways to down.
ZH: 大概率会失败（复习：75%的概率会在5根K线之内失败）， 至少会有两段横盘或下跌
41:17 - 41:23
EN: So at this point the premise is no longer valid
ZH: 所以在这个时候，尽管看上去仍然是上涨趋势， 但是他的前提已经不再成立
41:20 - 41:23
EN: that the bull trend is still in effect.
ZH: 所以在这个时候，尽管看上去仍然是上涨趋势， 但是他的前提已经不再成立
41:25 - 41:29
EN: Most traders, if they bought for any reason, should be getting out of longs here
ZH: 大多数交易者，如果他们因为任何原因买入， 应该在这里离场
41:29 - 41:33
EN: because bears will be selling there, looking for at least two legs down.
ZH: 因为空头会在那里卖出，预期至少有两段下跌
41:38 - 41:40
EN: In this video I talked about traders who do scale in,
ZH: 这节课，我讲了哪些交易者会分批入场
Slide 018
Time: 41:40
Bilingual Transcript
41:40 - 41:48
EN: and that includes everyday individuals trading their own account
ZH: 这也包括做定期定额投资的散户交易者
41:45 - 41:48
EN: at home when they do dollar-cost averaging.
ZH: 这也包括做定期定额投资的散户交易者
41:49 - 41:53
EN: Next I moved on and talked about scaling into winning trades.
ZH: 然后我讲了如何盈利加仓
41:57 - 41:58
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
41:58 - 42:00
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
42:00 - 42:08
EN: This is the end of Video 35A: Scaling In.
ZH: 加仓的第1节课（35A）就先讲到这里 （注：下节课讲亏损加仓）
42:04 - 42:08
EN: This is the first of three videos on scaling into a trade.
ZH: 加仓的第1节课（35A）就先讲到这里 （注：下节课讲亏损加仓）