al-brooks-course
44A - Trading Tight Bear Channels
Raw transcript and slide notes for 44A - Trading Tight Bear Channels.
Overview
- Slides: 22
- Transcript segments: 643
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:10
EN: This is the first of four videos on trading Tight Bear Channels.
ZH: 接下来的4节课，我们来讲如何交易窄下降通道
Slide 001
Time: 00:11
Bilingual Transcript
00:14 - 00:17
EN: I want to begin by defining what I mean by Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 首先我想定义一下我所说的窄下降通道是什么意思
00:17 - 00:21
EN: In general, if the market’s in a channel, bear channel,
ZH: 通常来说，如果市场处于下降通道
00:21 - 00:24
EN: and it’s very difficult to make money buying, you know the channel is tight
ZH: 而且很难通过做多赚钱， 你就知道这是窄下降通道
00:24 - 00:26
EN: and you should only be looking to sell.
ZH: 只做空、不做多
00:27 - 00:31
EN: A Tight Bear Channel is usually a strong bear breakout
ZH: 窄下降通道在更高的时间周期上，就是一次强势的空头突破
00:30 - 00:34
EN: on a higher timeframe chart, and therefore, again,
ZH: 窄下降通道在更高的时间周期上，就是一次强势的空头突破 所以还是那句话，只考虑做空
00:33 - 00:34
EN: you should only be looking to sell.
ZH: 所以还是那句话，只考虑做空
00:35 - 00:38
EN: Sometimes when the market’s in a Tight Bear Channel,
ZH: 在下降趋势中
00:38 - 00:40
EN: there’ll be a bull channel lasting 5 or 10 bars,
ZH: 有时也会出现一个持续5~10根K线的上涨通道
00:40 - 00:43
EN: and it’s almost always a bear flag.
ZH: 那大概率只是一个熊旗（反弹）
00:43 - 00:44
EN: The market will have a bear breakout.
ZH: 市场会再次向下跌破
00:45 - 00:49
EN: But if the pullback grows endlessly, it becomes an endless pullback,
ZH: 然而，如果反弹一直延续下去，那就变成了无尽的反弹
00:49 - 00:57
EN: and after 10, 20, or 30 bars, the odds start to become as likely
ZH: 持续10、20或30根K线以后， 强势反转上涨和下降趋势恢复的概率就变得差不多了
00:54 - 00:57
EN: that there’ll be a bull breakout of the bear channel.
ZH: 持续10、20或30根K线以后， 强势反转上涨和下降趋势恢复的概率就变得差不多了
00:57 - 01:03
EN: And if you do get a strong bull breakout
ZH: 如果多头真的强势突破了下降通道线， 那么市场就进入单边上涨了
00:59 - 01:03
EN: above the bear channel, the market becomes Always In Long.
ZH: 如果多头真的强势突破了下降通道线， 那么市场就进入单边上涨了
Slide 002
Time: 01:04
Bilingual Transcript
01:06 - 01:09
EN: Any channel can be tight or broad.
ZH: 通道有宽有窄
01:09 - 01:11
EN: Here are a couple of bear channels,
ZH: 这里有两个下降通道
01:14 - 01:16
EN: and I refer to this as tight.
ZH: 左边这样的我称之为窄通道
01:16 - 01:19
EN: When a channel looks like this – the pullbacks are small,
ZH: 如果一个通道看起来像是这样——回调很小
01:19 - 01:26
EN: lasting only 1 or 2 bars, and they do not extend very high up
ZH: 只持续一两根K线，反弹的幅度也不大——那就是窄通道
01:23 - 01:26
EN: in terms of the number of ticks – it’s a Tight Channel.
ZH: 只持续一两根K线，反弹的幅度也不大——那就是窄通道
01:26 - 01:30
EN: And when a channel is tight, it’s very hard to make money trading against it,
ZH: 当通道很窄时，逆势交易很难赚到钱
01:30 - 01:34
EN: and therefore if you’re in a Tight Bear Channel, you should only be selling.
ZH: 因此，如果市场处于窄下降通道，你就应该只做空
01:36 - 01:38
EN: You should look for any reason to sell.
ZH: 应该用任何方式做空
01:41 - 01:47
EN: However, when a channel has pullbacks lasting 5 or 10 bars and bulls are able
ZH: 然而，如果反弹持续5~10根K线，
01:47 - 01:50
EN: to make money buying with limit orders or even buying with stops,
ZH: 多头能够用限价单，甚至用突破单赚钱的时候
01:51 - 01:57
EN: then the bulls are reasonably strong
ZH: 说明多头的力量很强（注：宽通道）， 做多做空都可以
01:53 - 01:57
EN: and traders will sometimes buy in addition to sell.
ZH: 说明多头的力量很强（注：宽通道）， 做多做空都可以
02:01 - 02:03
EN: However, it’s still a bear channel (a bear trend),
ZH: 但它仍然是下降通道、下降趋势
02:03 - 02:08
EN: and therefore it’s always better to sell, especially for swings.
ZH: 所以做空总是更好一些，尤其是波段交易
02:11 - 02:14
EN: The bears will sell every pullback, betting on a reversal down,
ZH: 空头会在每次反弹的时候卖出，押注趋势恢复下跌
02:14 - 02:19
EN: and the bulls will start buying at new lows and reversals up for scalps.
ZH: 多头会在新低和反转向上时买入做多、剥头皮
02:19 - 02:24
EN: The bears are selling for scalps and swings; the bulls will buy for scalps only.
ZH: 空头既可以剥头皮，也可以做波段； 而多头只能剥头皮
02:24 - 02:27
EN: Because it’s a bear trend, they’re not going to swing trade.
ZH: 因为这是下降趋势，所以多头没办法做波段
02:29 - 02:33
EN: When you look at a chart and you’re not sure if it’s tight or broad
ZH: 如果你不清楚目前的通道到底是宽还是窄
02:33 - 02:37
EN: - these channels are fairly similar – if you’re not sure if it’s tight or broad,
ZH: ——这两个通道看起来有点相似——如果你没办法分辨，
02:37 - 02:41
EN: assume it’s tight and only trade in the direction of the trend.
ZH: 那就假设它是窄通道，然后只顺着趋势的方向交易
Slide 003
Time: 02:45
Bilingual Transcript
02:47 - 02:53
EN: The reason why I like to distinguish Tight Channels
ZH: 我喜欢区分窄通道和宽通道的原因是：我用不同的方法去交易
02:50 - 02:53
EN: from Broad Channels is because I trade them differently.
ZH: 我喜欢区分窄通道和宽通道的原因是：我用不同的方法去交易
02:53 - 02:57
EN: The tighter it is, the more I’m only going to be trading
ZH: 通道越窄，我就越只顺着趋势的方向交易
02:56 - 02:57
EN: in the direction of the trend.
ZH: 通道越窄，我就越只顺着趋势的方向交易
02:57 - 02:59
EN: Here, a Tight Bear Channel, I only want to sell.
ZH: 在这样的窄下降通道中，我只做空
02:59 - 03:06
EN: On the other hand, if it’s fairly broad, I will trade in the direction
ZH: 另一方面，如果通道很宽，我会顺着趋势方向交易， 也会逆势做剥头皮
03:03 - 03:06
EN: of the trend, but I may take scalps in the opposite direction.
ZH: 另一方面，如果通道很宽，我会顺着趋势方向交易， 也会逆势做剥头皮
03:12 - 03:15
EN: The math is much better for the bears when the channel is tight.
ZH: 在窄下降通道中，空头在数学上有更大的优势
03:21 - 03:27
EN: Very difficult to make money buying when the pullbacks are small
ZH: 如果回调只持续一两根K线，做多就很难赚到钱
03:25 - 03:27
EN: and only last a couple bars, 1 or 2 bars.
ZH: 如果回调只持续一两根K线，做多就很难赚到钱
03:27 - 03:31
EN: The rallies are not going up far enough for the bulls to make money.
ZH: 反弹幅度不够大，不足以让多头赚到钱
03:31 - 03:36
EN: Bears should sell and bulls should not be looking to buy,
ZH: 空头应该做空，而多头不应该急于做多， 尤其是在通道这么窄的情况下
03:34 - 03:36
EN: especially when it gets very tight like this.
ZH: 空头应该做空，而多头不应该急于做多， 尤其是在通道这么窄的情况下
Slide 004
Time: 03:40
Bilingual Transcript
03:42 - 03:47
EN: Let me give you some ideas on
ZH: 让我分享一下如何区分下降通道的宽和窄
03:45 - 03:47
EN: how to distinguish a Tight Channel from a bull channel.
ZH: 让我分享一下如何区分下降通道的宽和窄
03:50 - 03:58
EN: If the pullbacks only last 1 or 2 bars – here’s 2 bars, here’s 1 bar,
ZH: 如果反弹只持续一两根K线——这里两根，这里一根， 两根，一根——那么就是窄通道
03:54 - 03:58
EN: here’s a couple bars, 1 bar – then it’s probably tight.
ZH: 如果反弹只持续一两根K线——这里两根，这里一根， 两根，一根——那么就是窄通道
04:01 - 04:05
EN: I also always pay attention to the smallest scalp size,
ZH: 我总是拿反弹幅度和剥头皮的最小目标比较
04:05 - 04:08
EN: and in the Emini, the smallest scalp size is 1 point.
ZH: 在ES中，剥头皮的最小目标是1个点
04:08 - 04:16
EN: If the pullbacks are all less than two to three times
ZH: 如果反弹幅度小于剥头皮最小目标的两到三倍， 那我就不会考虑做多
04:12 - 04:16
EN: as big as the smallest scalp, then I’m not going to be looking to buy.
ZH: 如果反弹幅度小于剥头皮最小目标的两到三倍， 那我就不会考虑做多
04:16 - 04:25
EN: The smallest scalp is 1 point, and if the top of the pullback is only
ZH: 剥头皮的最小目标是1个点， 如果反弹的最高点距离最低点只有2~3个点，最好不要做多
04:20 - 04:25
EN: 2 or 3 points above the bottom of the bear trend, it’s better not to look to buy.
ZH: 剥头皮的最小目标是1个点， 如果反弹的最高点距离最低点只有2~3个点，最好不要做多
04:30 - 04:33
EN: For example, if you were buying with a stop above here,
ZH: 例如，如果你在它的上方用突破单买入——
04:33 - 04:40
EN: it’s very difficult to make a profit with a stop entry buying above the high
ZH: 在前一根K线的上方用突破单买入很难赚到钱， 因为反弹的幅度不会太大
04:37 - 04:40
EN: of the prior bar because the pullback is not going to go up very far,
ZH: 在前一根K线的上方用突破单买入很难赚到钱， 因为反弹的幅度不会太大
04:40 - 04:45
EN: and you’re already buying fairly far up
ZH: 你的入场点距离最低点已经很远，相当于是买在通道的高位
04:42 - 04:45
EN: above the low relative to the height of the channel.
ZH: 你的入场点距离最低点已经很远，相当于是买在通道的高位
04:50 - 04:54
EN: I also pay attention to how big the pullbacks are compared
ZH: 我也会拿反弹幅度和K线的平均高度做比较
04:53 - 04:54
EN: to the size of the average bar.
ZH: 我也会拿反弹幅度和K线的平均高度做比较
04:55 - 04:59
EN: This particular channel, the average bar is 2 to 2 and a half points tall.
ZH: 在这个通道中，K线的平均高度是2~2.5个点
04:59 - 05:03
EN: That means if the pullbacks are less than 4 to 5 points,
ZH: 如果反弹幅度小于4~5个点
05:03 - 05:05
EN: I don’t want to be looking to buy.
ZH: 我是不会考虑做多的
05:05 - 05:07
EN: Too difficult to make money.
ZH: 因为很难赚到钱
05:07 - 05:08
EN: And that is the case here.
ZH: 这里就是这种情况
05:08 - 05:11
EN: The bars are averaging 2 to 2 and a half points tall,
ZH: K线的平均高度是2~2.5个点
05:11 - 05:17
EN: and the pullbacks are not two or three times bigger than the average bar size.
ZH: 反弹幅度没有达到K线平均高度的两三倍
05:17 - 05:20
EN: That makes it very difficult to make money buying.
ZH: 导致做多很难赚到钱
05:20 - 05:21
EN: Traders should only sell.
ZH: 应该只考虑做空
05:24 - 05:29
EN: Here, this is an average bar on this particular day, and it’s 10 ticks tall.
ZH: 这里，这一天K线的平均大小是10个ticks
05:30 - 05:37
EN: And therefore traders should not be buying unless you’re seeing pullbacks
ZH: 除非你看到反弹的幅度是它的两倍，最好是三倍， 否则就不应该考虑做多
05:33 - 05:37
EN: that are at least twice as big as that, preferably three times as big as that.
ZH: 除非你看到反弹的幅度是它的两倍，最好是三倍， 否则就不应该考虑做多
05:37 - 05:38
EN: And that’s not the case.
ZH: 这里不符合条件
05:38 - 05:41
EN: The pullbacks are not two to three times the height of an average bar.
ZH: 反弹的幅度小于K线平均高度的两三倍
05:46 - 05:51
EN: I also pay attention to how far the pullback retraces the prior leg.
ZH: 我也关注反弹相对于下降波段的比例
05:51 - 05:56
EN: Here, we have a bear leg and the pullback retraced about half of the bear leg.
ZH: 左边的下降波段，它反弹了大约一半
05:57 - 06:01
EN: If the pullbacks only retrace one-third to one-half of the prior bear leg,
ZH: 如果反弹幅度只有下跌波段的三分之一到一半
06:01 - 06:03
EN: it’s usually better not to be looking to buy.
ZH: 那么最好不要考虑做多
06:08 - 06:12
EN: Also, look at how profitable the buy setups are.
ZH: 还有，观察多头的突破单能不能赚钱
06:12 - 06:16
EN: Here we have a bull ii, here we have a bull reversal bar for a failed breakout.
ZH: 这里有一个多头的ii结构； 这里刚刚创新低，就有一根反转阳线
06:16 - 06:20
EN: Are the bulls easily making money, or is it very difficult to make money?
ZH: 在它们的上方用突破单买入，能轻松赚到钱吗？
06:20 - 06:27
EN: If all of the stop entry buys are losers,
ZH: 如果说，即使有好的结构和做多信号K， 但突破买单仍然都是亏损的
06:24 - 06:27
EN: even when there are reasonably good buy signal bars,
ZH: 如果说，即使有好的结构和做多信号K， 但突破买单仍然都是亏损的
06:27 - 06:29
EN: then traders should not be looking to buy.
ZH: 那么交易者就不应该考虑做多
06:37 - 06:40
EN: Gaps are always important, and if you get a breakout
ZH: 缺口总是非常重要：如果向下跌破
06:40 - 06:51
EN: and then a reversal attempt and the reversal attempt cannot get
ZH: 跌破后的反弹没能超过突破点， 就说明趋势很强劲，它也说明了做多很难赚到钱
06:44 - 06:51
EN: above the breakout point, then the trend is strong
ZH: 跌破后的反弹没能超过突破点， 就说明趋势很强劲，它也说明了做多很难赚到钱
06:47 - 06:51
EN: and that again makes it very difficult to make money buying.
ZH: 跌破后的反弹没能超过突破点， 就说明趋势很强劲，它也说明了做多很难赚到钱
06:52 - 06:58
EN: Think about it this way: you have bulls buying
ZH: 你可以这样想：多头在前期低点挂单买入，并逢低加仓
06:56 - 06:58
EN: at the prior low, scaling in lower.
ZH: 你可以这样想：多头在前期低点挂单买入，并逢低加仓
06:58 - 07:02
EN: They need the rally to come back above the breakout point
ZH: 他们需要价格反弹到突破点的上方才能赚到钱——
07:02 - 07:02
EN: for them to make money.
ZH: 他们需要价格反弹到突破点的上方才能赚到钱——
07:02 - 07:06
EN: They want to get out breakeven on their first buy
ZH: 初始仓位打平，加仓的部分赚钱
07:04 - 07:06
EN: and a profit on their second buy.
ZH: 初始仓位打平，加仓的部分赚钱
07:06 - 07:08
EN: But if the market never gets back above the breakout point,
ZH: 如果反弹始终无法超过突破点，
07:08 - 07:13
EN: the limit order bulls buying at lows and scaling in lower are losing money.
ZH: 那么在前期低点挂限价买单、并逢低加仓的多头就会亏钱 （或最多打平离场）
Slide 005
Time: 07:15
Bilingual Transcript
07:23 - 07:26
EN: When a channel is tight, by definition the pullbacks are small,
ZH: 根据定义，窄下降通道中的反弹很小
07:26 - 07:28
EN: and that makes it very difficult to make money buying.
ZH: 导致做多很难赚钱
07:30 - 07:33
EN: If you look at this and you say, “Boy, this is hard to make money as a bull,”
ZH: 如果你观察K线图，发现：“兄弟，做多根本赚不到钱”
07:33 - 07:36
EN: especially if you try to buy a couple times and you’re losing money,
ZH: 尤其是如果你几次尝试做多，都亏钱了
07:36 - 07:38
EN: that’s telling you that you should only be selling.
ZH: 那就说明你应该只考虑做空
07:39 - 07:42
EN: Instead of buying every time you see a buy setup,
ZH: 不要一看到做多信号就买入
07:42 - 07:48
EN: you should look for where the bulls will get out
ZH: 而是应该思考多头会在哪里放弃， 然后在多头离场的地方入场做空
07:45 - 07:48
EN: and then sell exactly where the bulls are selling out of their longs.
ZH: 而是应该思考多头会在哪里放弃， 然后在多头离场的地方入场做空
07:55 - 07:58
EN: Every trend is always forming Wedge Bottoms.
ZH: 下降趋势中总是会形成3推楔形底
07:58 - 08:01
EN: Here we have a bear trend – one, two, three – tried to get a Wedge Bottom.
ZH: 下降趋势——1，2，3——尝试形成楔形底
08:01 - 08:04
EN: Now we have another Wedge Bottom, one, two, three.
ZH: 这里又有一个楔形底——1，2，3
08:04 - 08:05
EN: That’s normal.
ZH: 这很正常
08:05 - 08:08
EN: Every bear trend is always forming Wedge Bottoms.
ZH: 下降趋势总是在形成楔形底
08:08 - 08:11
EN: Every bull trend is always forming Wedge Tops.
ZH: 上涨趋势总是在形成楔形顶
08:11 - 08:14
EN: However, when the Wedge bear channel is very tight,
ZH: 然而，如果下降通道很窄
08:14 - 08:19
EN: the target for a reversal up is the top of the channel, which is right here.
ZH: 反弹的目标是通道的上沿，也就是这里
08:19 - 08:24
EN: So the market’s reversing up from the bottom of the Wedge;
ZH: 价格从楔形通道的下沿反转上涨，目标就在那里
08:23 - 08:24
EN: the target is right here.
ZH: 价格从楔形通道的下沿反转上涨，目标就在那里
08:24 - 08:30
EN: If it breaks strongly above that, then the next target is the beginning
ZH: 如果能突破上沿，那么下一个目标就是楔形的起点，也不是太远
08:27 - 08:30
EN: of the Wedge up here, which is not very far up.
ZH: 如果能突破上沿，那么下一个目标就是楔形的起点，也不是太远
08:32 - 08:36
EN: In strong trends – in this case, strong bear trends – the bottoms all fail.
ZH: 在强趋势中——像这样的强下降趋势——所有的筑底尝试都会失败
08:36 - 08:40
EN: And when a Wedge channel is very tight, the odds are it’s going to fail,
ZH: 如果这个楔形通道很窄，那么反转大概率会失败
08:40 - 08:42
EN: not go up high enough for a profit,
ZH: 涨幅不足以让多头赚钱
08:42 - 08:45
EN: and instead the trend will keep working lower.
ZH: 趋势很快就会继续下跌
08:45 - 08:47
EN: Do not look to buy.
ZH: 不要抄底
08:47 - 08:50
EN: You’re always going to be seeing Wedge Bottoms in bear trends.
ZH: 在下降趋势中你会一直看到楔形底
08:50 - 08:54
EN: Never look to buy a Wedge Bottom unless the swings are very, very big.
ZH: 不要轻易买入，除非是非常非常大的波段 （注：指抛物线抛售高潮）
08:57 - 09:01
EN: Well, you can argue we’re in a bear trend, we broke above the trend line,
ZH: 有的人会说：这里突破了下降趋势线
09:01 - 09:05
EN: and now we have a Lower Low and this is a Lower Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 创新低之后立刻涨回来了，所以是低点降低的大反转结构
09:05 - 09:08
EN: Well, it might look like it, but it’s not.
ZH: 但它实际上不是大反转的结构 （注：第1次小反转不够强势，K线数量不够多，等等）
09:08 - 09:11
EN: Beginners are always seeing bottoms when trends are strong.
ZH: 新手总是在强下降趋势里面抄底
09:11 - 09:12
EN: Look to the left.
ZH: 看看左边
09:12 - 09:15
EN: If the pullbacks are small and the channel is very tight,
ZH: 如果反弹很小并且通道非常窄
09:15 - 09:17
EN: these are not major reversals.
ZH: 就很难发生大反转
09:17 - 09:22
EN: They are minor reversals, and the best that you can hope
ZH: 它们只是小反转，最多变成震荡区间而已
09:20 - 09:22
EN: to get is maybe a small Trading Range.
ZH: 它们只是小反转，最多变成震荡区间而已
09:22 - 09:24
EN: It’s too early to be buying.
ZH: 现在买入还太早
09:24 - 09:28
EN: After you see a Trading Range, then trade it like a Trading Range.
ZH: 至少要等看到震荡区间以后，再考虑逢低买入
09:28 - 09:34
EN: But until you get a big enough minor reversal
ZH: 除非出现了足够大的小反转让市场进入震荡区间
09:31 - 09:34
EN: for traders to convert the trend into a Trading Range,
ZH: 除非出现了足够大的小反转让市场进入震荡区间
09:34 - 09:37
EN: trade it only like what it is, and that’s a tight bear trend.
ZH: 否则一直按照窄下降通道来交易就可以了
09:37 - 09:39
EN: Only trade in the direction of the trend.
ZH: 只顺着趋势的方向交易
09:39 - 09:41
EN: Stop looking for reversals.
ZH: 不要去做反转
09:41 - 09:42
EN: The trend is too tight.
ZH: 趋势太窄了
09:42 - 09:43
EN: You’re going to lose money.
ZH: 做多会亏钱
09:44 - 09:49
EN: This is not enough Buying Pressure for traders
ZH: 没有看到足够大的买压，所以交易者不会去做大反转
09:46 - 09:49
EN: to be looking for a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 没有看到足够大的买压，所以交易者不会去做大反转
09:49 - 09:54
EN: The channel down is too tight for traders
ZH: 下降通道太窄，交易者不应该去做大反转
09:52 - 09:54
EN: to be looking for a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 下降通道太窄，交易者不应该去做大反转
09:57 - 10:00
EN: Good-looking buy signal bar, failed breakout of a Trading Range,
ZH: 不错的做多信号K线，而且是区间跌破失败后的反转
10:01 - 10:03
EN: reversal up from a Wedge Bottom.
ZH: 3推楔形底反转上涨
10:03 - 10:05
EN: But it’s a Small Pullback Bear Trend.
ZH: 然而这是一个反弹很小的下降趋势
10:06 - 10:09
EN: That trumps any reason to look to buy.
ZH: “一票”否决了所有做多的理由——
10:13 - 10:15
EN: Failed breakout of a Triangle.
ZH: 跌破三角形失败
10:15 - 10:18
EN: We have a Wedge Bottom, we have a good-looking bull bar,
ZH: 3推楔形底，有不错的阳线（有很多做多的理由）
10:18 - 10:24
EN: but pullback only 1 bar, pullback only 1 or 2 bars, pullback only 1 or 2 bars.
ZH: 但反弹只有一根K线，反弹只有一两根K线，反弹只有几根K线
10:24 - 10:26
EN: This is not a buy setup.
ZH: 所以这不是一个做多机会
10:26 - 10:33
EN: This is a Small Pullback Bear Trend, and the reversal here
ZH: 它是反弹很小的下降趋势，反弹最多变成震荡区间， 更有可能的是继续下跌
10:29 - 10:33
EN: at best will be minor and likely the bear trend will continue.
ZH: 它是反弹很小的下降趋势，反弹最多变成震荡区间， 更有可能的是继续下跌
Slide 006
Time: 10:35
Bilingual Transcript
10:42 - 10:44
EN: Beginners love setups like this.
ZH: 新手喜欢抄底
10:44 - 10:50
EN: They’re always finding reasons to buy
ZH: 他们总是在强下降趋势中寻找买入的理由，因为风险看起来比较小
10:46 - 10:50
EN: in strong trends because the risk is small.
ZH: 他们总是在强下降趋势中寻找买入的理由，因为风险看起来比较小
10:50 - 10:53
EN: They buy above the high of this bar and they know their stop is just below.
ZH: 他们在这根K线的高点上方买入，止损就在下面
10:53 - 10:55
EN: They’re not going to lose very much.
ZH: 不会亏很多钱
10:55 - 10:57
EN: What they ignore is probability.
ZH: 但他们忽略了概率
10:57 - 11:05
EN: The probability of making money with a stop in a very Tight Bear Channel
ZH: 在窄下降通道中，突破买单能赚钱的概率很小， 所以绝大部分时候他们都会亏钱
11:02 - 11:05
EN: like this is small, so they lose most of the time.
ZH: 在窄下降通道中，突破买单能赚钱的概率很小， 所以绝大部分时候他们都会亏钱
11:05 - 11:08
EN: They can say, “Well, at least I only lost a little,”
ZH: 他们可能觉得：“没事，只亏了一点点”
11:08 - 11:12
EN: but if you lose a little here and lose a little here and lose a little here,
ZH: 但如果你这里亏一点，那里亏一点
11:12 - 11:15
EN: at the end of the day you’ll have lost a lot.
ZH: 最终累积起来仍然亏了很多钱
11:15 - 11:18
EN: You cannot simply look at risk and say “Okay, I’ll take the buy.”
ZH: 不能只考虑风险，然后想：“好，可以买入。”
11:18 - 11:22
EN: You’ve got to look at reward – it’s probably a minor reversal,
ZH: 必须要考虑利润——这大概率只是小反转
11:22 - 11:25
EN: so the reward will be small – and probability.
ZH: 所以利润会很小——还有概率
11:25 - 11:29
EN: The probability of making money buying in a very Tight Bear Channel is small,
ZH: 在窄下降通道中做多赚钱的概率很小
11:29 - 11:33
EN: and therefore the Trader’s Equation is terrible for the bulls.
ZH: 所以做多的数学期望非常糟糕
11:45 - 11:49
EN: Again, you can’t simply look at risk when you’re taking a trade.
ZH: 再讲一遍，做交易的时候不能只看风险
11:49 - 11:57
EN: You have to look at probability – buying in a Tight Bear Channel like this,
ZH: 必须要看概率——在这样的窄下降通道中买入，赚钱的概率很低； 也必须要看利润
11:53 - 11:57
EN: very low probability of making money – and you have to look at reward.
ZH: 必须要看概率——在这样的窄下降通道中买入，赚钱的概率很低； 也必须要看利润
11:57 - 12:03
EN: A Tight Bear Channel at best is going to be a bear flag
ZH: 因为通道很窄，所以反弹最多变成熊旗或震荡区间， 因此潜在的利润很小
12:00 - 12:03
EN: or a Trading Range, and therefore the reward is small.
ZH: 因为通道很窄，所以反弹最多变成熊旗或震荡区间， 因此潜在的利润很小
12:03 - 12:10
EN: And that is not enough reward, despite the low risk,
ZH: 尽管风险小，但利润也小，因此不足以弥补概率的劣势
12:07 - 12:10
EN: to offset the very low probability of making money.
ZH: 尽管风险小，但利润也小，因此不足以弥补概率的劣势
12:13 - 12:20
EN: Do not buy, because the reversal will be minor and probably become a bear flag,
ZH: 别抄底，因为它大概率只是小反转，是熊旗，
12:20 - 12:23
EN: another Lower High in the Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 窄下降通道中高点不断降低
12:26 - 12:28
EN: And this is what happened.
ZH: 这是后面的行情
12:28 - 12:30
EN: You got a little bull bar, you got a second bull bar,
ZH: （买入之后）一根小阳线，两根小阳线
12:30 - 12:32
EN: and you ended up losing money
ZH: 然后就亏钱了
12:32 - 12:35
EN: - just like you did here and here and here and here.
ZH: 就像这里、这里、这里、还有这里一样
12:35 - 12:37
EN: All day long you’ve been losing money.
ZH: 一整天都在亏钱
12:37 - 12:38
EN: Not very much.
ZH: 每次确实不多
12:38 - 12:41
EN: You lost money here, you lost money here.
ZH: 但是这里亏一点，那里亏一点
12:41 - 12:47
EN: You lose money all day long buying a Small Pullback Bear Trend,
ZH: 反弹很小的下降趋势、窄下降通道， 一直尝试抄底，导致亏了一整天
12:45 - 12:47
EN: a trend in a very Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 反弹很小的下降趋势、窄下降通道， 一直尝试抄底，导致亏了一整天
Slide 007
Time: 12:50
Bilingual Transcript
12:52 - 12:55
EN: You’re taking this buy, but look what just took place.
ZH: 你想在它的上方买入，但看看刚才发生了什么
12:55 - 13:00
EN: You have 6 bars down, no bull bars, maybe 6 bear bars.
ZH: 连续下跌了6根K线，没有一根阳线——好像是连续6根阴线
13:00 - 13:02
EN: This might be a small bear bar.
ZH: 它好像是阴线
13:02 - 13:03
EN: It might be a doji.
ZH: 也可能完全是十字星
13:03 - 13:06
EN: But in any case, you have 6 consecutive bear bars.
ZH: 总之，连续下跌了6根K线
13:06 - 13:09
EN: That is unlikely to lead to a bull reversal.
ZH: 多头很难直接反转
13:11 - 13:16
EN: So you have a very Tight Channel nested within a bigger Tight Channel.
ZH: 小的窄通道，嵌套在更大的窄通道里面
13:16 - 13:20
EN: The odds of getting a major reversal out of this are very small.
ZH: 发生大反转的概率非常小
13:24 - 13:33
EN: Who buys up here? Well, the bears sell pullbacks and they buy
ZH: 谁会在这里买入？ 一些空头在反弹的时候做空， 然后在创新低的时候止盈一部分，造成价格反弹
13:29 - 13:33
EN: for partial profits at a new low, so some bears will buy here.
ZH: 然后在创新低的时候止盈一部分，造成价格反弹
13:33 - 13:37
EN: And then you have weak bulls constantly looking for reversals,
ZH: 同时有一些弱多头，不断尝试抄底
13:37 - 13:39
EN: and they’re buying and losing money.
ZH: 一直抄底，一直亏钱
13:40 - 13:43
EN: When the bears see that the bulls are unable to get the reversal,
ZH: 当空头发现多头没有能力制造反转时
13:43 - 13:47
EN: the bears sell again, and they do that all day long.
ZH: 空头就再次卖出，一整天都在做空
13:47 - 13:51
EN: Every reversal attempt, they sell, they sell,
ZH: 每次只要有反弹，他们就卖出，卖出，卖出，卖出，卖出，卖出，卖出，
13:49 - 13:51
EN: they sell, they sell, they sell, they sell.
ZH: 每次只要有反弹，他们就卖出，卖出，卖出，卖出，卖出，卖出，卖出，
13:51 - 13:53
EN: And that’s what you should be doing as well.
ZH: 这也正是你应该做的事情
13:58 - 14:02
EN: Now, I said that a Tight Bear Channel is a breakout on a higher timeframe chart.
ZH: 之前我提到，窄下降通道在更高的时间周期上就是突破
Slide 008
Time: 14:00
Bilingual Transcript
14:02 - 14:04
EN: I want to talk a little bit about that.
ZH: 现在我们来讲讲这个点
Slide 009
Time: 14:05
Bilingual Transcript
14:07 - 14:12
EN: Here’s the 5-minute chart of the Emini, and this is a 120-minute chart,
ZH: 左边ES的5分钟图，右边是它的120分钟图
14:12 - 14:15
EN: a 2-hour chart of this same thing.
ZH: 也就是它的两小时图
14:16 - 14:20
EN: While on the 15-minute chart there might be an occasional pullback,
ZH: 在5分钟图上，偶尔能看到一些反弹
14:20 - 14:24
EN: there’s not going to be much, and if you look at the 120-minute chart,
ZH: 但是在120分钟图上就看不到反弹
14:24 - 14:30
EN: it’s just bear bar after bear bar, and you have 4 or 5 bear bars
ZH: 只看到阴线一根接着一根， 连续4根阴线收在一半以下
14:28 - 14:30
EN: closing below their midpoints, near their lows.
ZH: 只看到阴线一根接着一根， 连续4根阴线收在一半以下
14:31 - 14:34
EN: When you look at this, do you say, “Wow, what a great looking buy.
ZH: 当你看到右边这张图，你会不会说： “哇！完美的买入机会
14:34 - 14:37
EN: I’m going to buy here, I’m going to buy here, I’m going to buy here”?
ZH: 我要在这里买，我要在这里买，我要在这里买”？
14:37 - 14:38
EN: Of course not.
ZH: 当然不会
14:38 - 14:40
EN: You’re getting consecutive big bear bars.
ZH: 你看到了连续的大阴线
14:40 - 14:43
EN: The odds are any reversal is going to be minor and fail.
ZH: 任何上涨都只是小反弹，都会失败
14:44 - 14:50
EN: Therefore, any time you have a Tight Bear Channel,
ZH: 因此，窄下降通道在更高的时间周期上是突破
14:47 - 14:50
EN: the higher timeframes will be in breakouts,
ZH: 因此，窄下降通道在更高的时间周期上是突破
14:51 - 14:54
EN: and if you’re in a strong bear breakout, you only want to sell.
ZH: 如果市场处于强势的空头突破，你就只应该卖出
14:54 - 14:58
EN: Therefore, on the 5-minute chart as well, you should only look to sell.
ZH: 所以在这样的行情中，只应该考虑做空
15:05 - 15:10
EN: This red box on the 2-hour chart is this red box on the 5-minute chart,
ZH: 2小时图上的红色框框，和5分钟图上的红色框框，是同一段行情
15:10 - 15:15
EN: and a Tight Bear Channel is always a higher timeframe bear breakout,
ZH: 窄下降通道在更高的时间周期上肯定是空头突破
15:15 - 15:19
EN: and you should trade it like a breakout and only look to sell.
ZH: 所以应该按照突破的方式去交易，只做空、不做多
15:22 - 15:24
EN: Channel is very tight.
ZH: 通道非常窄
15:24 - 15:26
EN: Breakout on the 2-hour chart.
ZH: 在2小时的K线图上是突破
15:26 - 15:27
EN: Only sell.
ZH: 只做空
15:31 - 15:34
EN: If you look at a chart and you’re not sure – well,
ZH: 如果你看着K线图，无法确定——
15:34 - 15:37
EN: maybe we’re getting enough Buying Pressure so that we’ll get a reversal up
ZH: 也许有足够的买压，可能会反转上涨
15:37 - 15:40
EN: - if you’re not sure, look at a higher timeframe.
ZH: ——如果不确定，就看看更高的时间周期
15:41 - 15:47
EN: Or simply decide that if you’re in a bear trend
ZH: 或者干脆这样想：如果在下降趋势中，你不确定该不该买入，那就别买
15:44 - 15:47
EN: and you’re not sure if you should buy, do not buy.
ZH: 或者干脆这样想：如果在下降趋势中，你不确定该不该买入，那就别买
15:47 - 15:53
EN: Whenever you’re not sure about whether
ZH: 在下降趋势中，如果不确定是否应该做多，那就不要做多
15:49 - 15:53
EN: to buy in a bear trend, the answer is do not buy.
ZH: 在下降趋势中，如果不确定是否应该做多，那就不要做多
15:53 - 15:54
EN: Only sell.
ZH: 只做空
Slide 010
Time: 15:55
Bilingual Transcript
16:00 - 16:01
EN: Here’s a breakout.
ZH: 右图是突破
16:01 - 16:03
EN: There’s no confusion.
ZH: 没有困惑
16:03 - 16:04
EN: It’s going lower.
ZH: 市场在下跌
16:04 - 16:05
EN: Here’s a bear channel.
ZH: 左图是下降通道
16:05 - 16:09
EN: It’s constantly getting pullbacks, and that generates confusion.
ZH: 时不时有一些反弹，这就造成了困惑
16:09 - 16:12
EN: It makes the shorts slightly lower probability.
ZH: （反弹的存在）让做空的胜率下降了一点点
16:12 - 16:15
EN: If you’re trading this chart, there’s no thought involved.
ZH: 如果按照右图交易，不需要思考
16:15 - 16:16
EN: You sell for any reason.
ZH: 直接做空就可以了
16:16 - 16:18
EN: You know the market’s going lower.
ZH: 你知道市场会继续下跌
16:18 - 16:21
EN: On this chart, there’s a little bit less certainty,
ZH: 而在5分钟图上，好像没有那么确定
16:21 - 16:24
EN: so the probability of the shorts is a little bit less.
ZH: 所以感觉做空的胜率下降了一点
16:24 - 16:28
EN: However, it’s far better than the probability of the longs.
ZH: 然而，做空的胜率远远高于做多
16:34 - 16:39
EN: Does not look like much of a trend, but it is a trend, and the reward is big.
ZH: 看上去趋势不是很强，但它确实是趋势，而且利润很大
16:40 - 16:43
EN: If you find yourself repeatedly buying and losing money,
ZH: 如果你总是在这种行情中反复买入，然后亏钱，
16:43 - 16:51
EN: take a look at the higher timeframe chart, and if you see
ZH: 看一看更高的时间周期， 如果你看到连续两三根阴线收在低点附近，就别买了
16:46 - 16:51
EN: 2 or 3 consecutive bear bars closing below their midpoints,
ZH: 看一看更高的时间周期， 如果你看到连续两三根阴线收在低点附近，就别买了
16:49 - 16:51
EN: closing near their lows, stop buying.
ZH: 看一看更高的时间周期， 如果你看到连续两三根阴线收在低点附近，就别买了
16:53 - 16:55
EN: If you want, you can trade the higher timeframe chart,
ZH: 你也可以直接根据更高的周期交易
16:55 - 16:57
EN: for example, and just sell closes.
ZH: 比如，在阴线的收盘卖出做空
16:57 - 16:59
EN: Sell that close, sell this close.
ZH: 卖它的收盘、它的收盘
16:59 - 17:05
EN: If you do, the correct stop is above the top
ZH: 如果这样做，正确的止损是在强势突破的起跌点上方，在这里
17:02 - 17:05
EN: of the current strong bear breakout, which is up here.
ZH: 如果这样做，正确的止损是在强势突破的起跌点上方，在这里
17:05 - 17:06
EN: And that’s far.
ZH: 距离很远
17:06 - 17:08
EN: That’s about 10 or 12 points up.
ZH: 大约是10~12个点
17:08 - 17:12
EN: If you can trade small enough, then it’s reasonable to take the short.
ZH: 如果你能够用足够小的仓位交易，那么在这里做空就是合理的
17:12 - 17:15
EN: You might be able to get a tighter stop on a 5-minute chart
ZH: 在5分钟图上你可以找到更近的止损
17:15 - 17:19
EN: - for example, after 5 or 6 bear bars, if you sell for any reason
ZH: ——比如在连续五六根阴线之后，你入场做空了
17:19 - 17:22
EN: you could put your stop above that high or above this high.
ZH: 可以把止损放在这个高点、或者这个高点的上方
Slide 011
Time: 17:26
Bilingual Transcript
17:27 - 17:32
EN: When the market’s in a Tight Bear Channel, sometimes there’ll be a pullback
ZH: 当市场处于大的窄下降通道时，偶尔会有一些反弹，
17:32 - 17:34
EN: that’s in a fairly Tight Bull Channel.
ZH: 这些反弹看起来是窄上涨通道
17:34 - 17:35
EN: It’s usually a bear flag.
ZH: 它们通常是熊旗
17:35 - 17:43
EN: However, if it grows to 10 or 20 bars, you have to be watching
ZH: 然而，如果反弹一直持续10~20根K线， 你就要关注会不会向上突破熊旗
17:39 - 17:43
EN: for a possible strong bull breakout above that bear flag,
ZH: 然而，如果反弹一直持续10~20根K线， 你就要关注会不会向上突破熊旗
17:43 - 17:46
EN: which would convert the bear trend into a bull trend.
ZH: 把下降趋势反转成上涨趋势
Slide 012
Time: 17:48
Bilingual Transcript
17:54 - 17:56
EN: Whenever you have a bear trend and you get a reversal,
ZH: 当下降趋势开始反转上涨，
17:56 - 17:59
EN: it’s usually a pullback and it leads to a resumption of the bear trend.
ZH: 那通常只是反弹，然后下降趋势会恢复
18:00 - 18:05
EN: At some point in here, you’re going to decide
ZH: 到了这里附近，你可以判断市场正处于窄下降通道
18:02 - 18:05
EN: that the bear trend is in a fairly Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 到了这里附近，你可以判断市场正处于窄下降通道
18:05 - 18:07
EN: Therefore, it’s very difficult to make money buying,
ZH: 做多是很难赚到钱的
18:07 - 18:09
EN: and traders should only look to sell.
ZH: 所以应该只考虑做空
18:10 - 18:12
EN: You can call this a Tight Trading Range,
ZH: 可以说它是窄震荡区间
18:12 - 18:14
EN: you can call it a slight Wedge – doesn’t matter.
ZH: 或者说它是一个小的楔形顶——不重要
18:14 - 18:17
EN: It’s a Tight Bull Channel or a Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 它是窄上涨通道，或窄震荡区间
18:17 - 18:21
EN: This is clearly a small Tight Bull Channel lasting about 4 bars.
ZH: 显然是一个小的窄上涨通道，持续了4根K线
18:22 - 18:24
EN: They’re pullbacks in a bear trend.
ZH: 它们是下降趋势中的反弹
18:24 - 18:28
EN: The odds are the trend is going to resume and traders should only look to sell.
ZH: 下降趋势大概率会继续，所以交易者应该只考虑做空
18:32 - 18:35
EN: For example, you can sell on the resumption of the bear trend.
ZH: 比如，可以在恢复下跌的时候卖出——
18:35 - 18:37
EN: You can sell on a stop below the bear bar.
ZH: 在阴线下方挂突破卖单
18:37 - 18:42
EN: Here we have a Micro Double Top; you could sell below this doji or here.
ZH: 这里有一个小双顶； 你可以在之前这个十字星下方做空，这里更好
18:42 - 18:43
EN: Now we have a Micro Double Top.
ZH: 因为现在有了一个小双顶
18:43 - 18:45
EN: This is a higher probability sell.
ZH: 此时入场做空的胜率更高
18:45 - 18:50
EN: You place a stop order to go short 1 tick
ZH: 你在这根K线低点下方1个tick挂突破卖单， 订单会在这里成交
18:48 - 18:50
EN: below the low of this bar, and you get filled right here.
ZH: 你在这根K线低点下方1个tick挂突破卖单， 订单会在这里成交
18:55 - 18:58
EN: Sometimes you’ll get a bull channel in a bear trend,
ZH: 在下降趋势中也会有上涨通道
18:59 - 19:01
EN: and the bull channel just keeps growing,
ZH: 有的上涨通道一直持续
19:01 - 19:03
EN: and at some point it can reach 10 or more bars.
ZH: 最终发展到十几根K线
19:04 - 19:06
EN: You can call it a pullback that is endless.
ZH: 好像反弹永远不会结束
19:06 - 19:10
EN: I call it an endless pullback, and it can often be the start of a bull trend,
ZH: 我称之为无尽的反弹， 它经常是上涨趋势的开始
19:10 - 19:12
EN: or at least the end of the bear trend.
ZH: 或者，至少代表了下降趋势的结束
19:18 - 19:22
EN: If the bear trend has some kind of a climactic selloff
ZH: 如果在下降趋势的后期出现了高潮式的抛售
19:22 - 19:30
EN: and if there’s a strong reversal up, and then you start to get
ZH: 然后立刻强势地反弹，一直持续至少10根K线， 尤其是有大阳线的话，
19:25 - 19:30
EN: an endless pullback of 10 or more bars, especially with big bull bars,
ZH: 然后立刻强势地反弹，一直持续至少10根K线， 尤其是有大阳线的话，
19:30 - 19:32
EN: it’s probably not going to be a bear flag.
ZH: 那么它大概率就不是熊旗了
19:32 - 19:35
EN: It’s probably either a bull leg in what will become a Trading Range
ZH: 要么是大跌、大涨，即将变成震荡区间
19:35 - 19:39
EN: or a very strong minor reversal that will lead to a major reversal,
ZH: 或者在强势的小反转之后，会形成大反转
19:39 - 19:42
EN: like a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal and then a second leg up.
ZH: 比如低点抬高的大反转，然后有第2段上涨
19:44 - 19:49
EN: The two things I look for are, was there some kind of a Sell Climax leading up
ZH: 我关注的两个特征是：在上涨通道的左边，是不是某种抛售高潮？
19:48 - 19:55
EN: to this bull channel? And did the bull channel have
ZH: 我关注的两个特征是：在上涨通道的左边，是不是某种抛售高潮？ 以及，这个上涨通道里有没有连续3根阳线收在一半以上？
19:52 - 19:55
EN: 3 or more consecutive bull bars closing above their midpoints?
ZH: 以及，这个上涨通道里有没有连续3根阳线收在一半以上？
19:55 - 19:59
EN: Especially if 2 or more of the bars have pretty good size bull bodies.
ZH: 尤其是有没有至少两根体积较大的阳线
19:59 - 20:00
EN: And this is the case here.
ZH: 就比如这里的行情
20:01 - 20:05
EN: If I see this combination of things – 3 or more bull bars
ZH: 如果这些条件组合在一起——连续3根以上的阳线，
20:05 - 20:10
EN: and some kind of a climax (here we got a small Parabolic Wedge)
ZH: 左边有一些抛售高潮（这里是一个小的抛物线下跌）
20:10 - 20:14
EN: - I begin to think that this might be the beginning of an endless pullback.
ZH: 我就开始考虑：它会不会变成无尽的反弹
20:14 - 20:18
EN: The channel down is tight, and therefore this is not a major reversal.
ZH: 下降通道很窄，所以一开始不会认为它是大反转
20:18 - 20:19
EN: It’s a minor reversal.
ZH: 它只是小反转
20:20 - 20:25
EN: However, it can be a minor reversal that could in fact
ZH: 然而，有时候它可以发展成大反转、进入上涨趋势
20:23 - 20:25
EN: become a major reversal into a bear trend.
ZH: 然而，有时候它可以发展成大反转、进入上涨趋势
20:25 - 20:29
EN: It could be an endless minor reversal, an endless pullback.
ZH: 一直发展下去，就变成了无尽的反弹
20:29 - 20:32
EN: And if I see some kind of a Sell Climax or Parabolic Wedge
ZH: 如果在某种抛售高潮、或抛物线下跌之后，
20:32 - 20:36
EN: and especially a reversal up that has 3 or more decent bull bars,
ZH: 开始反转上涨，其中有3根或更多这样的阳线，
20:37 - 20:41
EN: traders start to think that instead of a resumption of the bear trend,
ZH: 交易者会开始思考，下降趋势可能无法继续了
20:41 - 20:45
EN: instead of this Tight Bull Channel being a bear flag,
ZH: 这个窄上涨通道可能不是熊旗
20:45 - 20:47
EN: it could be the start of a bull trend.
ZH: 而是上涨趋势的开始
20:52 - 20:54
EN: Initially the probability still favors the bears,
ZH: 一开始空头仍然有概率上的优势
20:54 - 20:57
EN: but once you start to get 3 or more decent bull bars,
ZH: 然而，一旦出现3根或更多强势的阳线
20:57 - 21:01
EN: especially big bull bars, the odds are the bear trend has ended
ZH: 尤其是大阳线，那么下降趋势大概率已经结束
21:01 - 21:04
EN: and the market has become either a Trading Range or a bull trend.
ZH: 市场要么变成震荡区间，要么变成上涨趋势
21:04 - 21:06
EN: Bulls are going to be looking to buy.
ZH: 多头会开始买入
21:06 - 21:09
EN: For example, the second entry buy with a good bull bar
ZH: 例如，好的阳线，第2做多入场点
21:09 - 21:12
EN: - bull bar closing near its high, bull bar closing near its high.
ZH: ——阳线收在最高（第1）、又有阳线收在最高（第2）
21:12 - 21:14
EN: And then we got 3 consecutive bull bars.
ZH: （第2入场点）之后是连续3根阳线
21:14 - 21:15
EN: Bulls will buy the close.
ZH: 多头会开始买收盘
21:15 - 21:19
EN: We have a pullback, an ii bull flag.
ZH: 这里有一些回调，ii牛旗 （注：ii，连续两根孕线）
21:19 - 21:21
EN: Not much in terms of big bear bars.
ZH: 没有看到什么大的阴线
21:21 - 21:23
EN: The odds are we’re going higher.
ZH: 所以大概率还会上涨
21:23 - 21:28
EN: Traders will either buy on a stop above the ii or on a stop
ZH: 可以在ii的上方挂突破买单， 或者在强势的阳线上方挂突破买单
21:27 - 21:32
EN: above a strong bull bar, expecting to make at least some profit
ZH: 可以在ii的上方挂突破买单， 或者在强势的阳线上方挂突破买单 押注在第2段上涨中，至少可以赚一笔剥头皮的利润
21:30 - 21:32
EN: on a resumption of the trend up.
ZH: 押注在第2段上涨中，至少可以赚一笔剥头皮的利润
21:36 - 21:44
EN: I talk more about this on the videos on Tight Channels and Micro Channels,
ZH: 在窄通道和微通道的章节中， 我更详细地讲解了回调、数K线和大反转
21:40 - 21:44
EN: pullbacks and bar counting, and Major Trend Reversals.
ZH: 在窄通道和微通道的章节中， 我更详细地讲解了回调、数K线和大反转
Slide 013
Time: 21:46
Bilingual Transcript
21:52 - 21:55
EN: Here we have a bull trend, but then look at this.
ZH: 上涨趋势，然后看这里
21:55 - 21:56
EN: We have a Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 这里有一个窄下降通道
21:57 - 22:00
EN: If you have a Tight Bear Channel in a bull trend,
ZH: 如果上涨趋势中有一个窄下降通道
22:00 - 22:06
EN: it’s probably a bull flag and it’s more likely
ZH: 它很可能是牛旗，趋势更有可能恢复上涨，而不是反转下跌
22:02 - 22:06
EN: that you’ll get trend resumption up than trend reversal down.
ZH: 它很可能是牛旗，趋势更有可能恢复上涨，而不是反转下跌
22:06 - 22:09
EN: If this grows to 20 or 30 bars, then the probability
ZH: 如果回调持续到20、30根K线，
22:09 - 22:12
EN: for the bears rises to about the same as for the bulls.
ZH: 那么反转的概率变得接近50%
22:13 - 22:16
EN: But if the pullback is 5 or 10 bars, it’s a pullback.
ZH: 但如果只是5到10根K线，那么它就只是回调
22:16 - 22:21
EN: A pullback means the trend is likely to resume, more likely than to reverse,
ZH: 回调的意思是，趋势更有可能会恢复，而不是被反转
22:21 - 22:24
EN: and therefore it’s a minor reversal into a bull flag.
ZH: 所以它只是小反转、变成牛旗
22:29 - 22:35
EN: We have a very Tight Bull Channel here, and therefore the best the bears
ZH: 非常窄的上涨通道，因此空头最多得到一个小反转
22:34 - 22:35
EN: will probably get is a minor reversal,
ZH: 非常窄的上涨通道，因此空头最多得到一个小反转
22:35 - 22:40
EN: which means either a bull flag or a Trading Range.
ZH: 也就是说，要么变成牛旗，要么变成震荡区间
22:44 - 22:48
EN: Good breakout on the part of the bulls, breakout of this Trading Range.
ZH: 多头制造了强势的突破，突破了震荡区间
22:48 - 22:55
EN: I would call a Trading Range like this that is small a pullback
ZH: 我称之为震荡区间——它是上涨趋势中的小回调， 更有可能顺势向上突破
22:52 - 22:55
EN: in a bull trend, and it’s likely to have a bull breakout.
ZH: 我称之为震荡区间——它是上涨趋势中的小回调， 更有可能顺势向上突破
22:55 - 22:58
EN: Even though there’s a Tight Bear Channel, it’s not enough bars
ZH: 尽管有一个窄下降通道，但K线数量不够多，
22:58 - 23:02
EN: to make the market Always In Short, and therefore
ZH: 不足以让市场进入单边下跌
23:02 - 23:04
EN: - look to the left – it’s still Always In Long.
ZH: 所以看左边的背景——仍然是单边上涨
23:04 - 23:06
EN: More likely that we’ll go higher.
ZH: 更有可能会继续上涨 （注：所以一定要做的话，宁愿做多）
Slide 014
Time: 23:10
Bilingual Transcript
23:13 - 23:15
EN: The market’s in a Trading Range.
ZH: 这里市场处于震荡区间
23:15 - 23:16
EN: You can call it a Triangle.
ZH: 也可以说它是三角形
23:16 - 23:19
EN: Three pushes up, one, two, three.
ZH: 3次向上的推动——1，2，3
23:19 - 23:22
EN: Lower High here, slightly Higher High, but basically a Triangle.
ZH: 这个高点降低，这个高点略高于它， 但总的来看是一个三角形
23:22 - 23:25
EN: Higher Lows, marginally Lower Highs.
ZH: 低点抬高，高点略微降低
23:26 - 23:29
EN: In any case, we have consecutive bear bars,
ZH: 总之，这里连续两根大阴线
23:29 - 23:32
EN: so at this point it’s probably Always In Short again.
ZH: 此时市场又处于（小的）单边下跌了
23:32 - 23:34
EN: It was Always In Short, probably Always In Long,
ZH: 单边下跌，单边上涨 （注：震荡区间中的大涨大跌）
23:34 - 23:36
EN: Always In Short, Always In Long.
ZH: 单边下跌，单边上涨
23:36 - 23:38
EN: Triangles are always doing that.
ZH: 三角形总是出现这样的行情
23:38 - 23:41
EN: By the time you’re Always In Short,
ZH: 你发现市场处于单边下跌
23:41 - 23:43
EN: it’s going to reverse up and become Always In Long.
ZH: 结果它很快反转，变成单边上涨
23:43 - 23:47
EN: By the time you’re Always In Long,
ZH: 涨了没多久，又反转，开始下跌
23:45 - 23:47
EN: it’s going to reverse down and become Always In Short.
ZH: 涨了没多久，又反转，开始下跌
23:47 - 23:52
EN: Anyway, we have a Double Top Lower High after a reasonably strong leg down,
ZH: 这里有一个双顶，低于前期强势下跌波段的起跌点
23:52 - 23:56
EN: and at the close of this bar it’s Always In Short again.
ZH: 这根阴线收盘之后，市场又处于单边下跌之中了
24:01 - 24:03
EN: The context is good for a swing down.
ZH: 背景更有利于形成下跌波段
24:03 - 24:05
EN: You can call it a Triangle or a Trading Range.
ZH: 可以把它看作三角形，或者震荡区间
24:05 - 24:07
EN: Now we’re getting a breakout, and we have a Double Top.
ZH: 在双顶之后，看到了连续的大阴线（注：空头突破）
24:11 - 24:15
EN: We have a pullback, but a bad buy signal bar here,
ZH: 反弹（注：超过前一根K线的最高点） 但前一根K线不是好的做多信号K（注：是阴线）
24:15 - 24:18
EN: and the pullback reversed into a bear bar.
ZH: 反弹很快失败，最终收了一根阴线
24:18 - 24:22
EN: It looks like we might be in the early stages of converting into a bear channel.
ZH: 看起来，市场正开始转变成下降通道
24:23 - 24:25
EN: The Trading Range could continue all day.
ZH: 震荡区间可能会持续一整天
24:25 - 24:27
EN: It was still a Trading Range at this point.
ZH: 在这个时候，仍然是震荡区间
24:27 - 24:28
EN: It was also a bear channel.
ZH: 市场也处于下降通道 （注：此时仍然可以说，这是震荡区间中的下跌波段）
24:28 - 24:31
EN: We were getting Lower Highs and Lower Lows.
ZH: 高点和低点都在不断降低
24:31 - 24:38
EN: Very often a trend exists with a channel and you don’t know
ZH: 当趋势以这种通道的形式出现， 往往要很久以后才知道多空双方到底谁能胜出
24:35 - 24:38
EN: which will ultimately win until many bars later.
ZH: 当趋势以这种通道的形式出现， 往往要很久以后才知道多空双方到底谁能胜出
24:39 - 24:42
EN: If we only look at this point, from here to the left,
ZH: 在这个时候，往左边看过去
24:42 - 24:48
EN: it’s still a Trading Range, but it’s also still in a bear channel,
ZH: 这仍然是一个震荡区间， 但市场也处于下降通道——下降通道的早期
24:46 - 24:48
EN: an early bear channel.
ZH: 这仍然是一个震荡区间， 但市场也处于下降通道——下降通道的早期
24:54 - 24:57
EN: We have a bear breakout and we have a pullback,
ZH: 空头突破，然后有一些反弹
24:57 - 25:00
EN: but the bulls were unable to get good-looking bull bars.
ZH: 但多头无法制造出漂亮的阳线
25:00 - 25:01
EN: We’re sideways.
ZH: 市场开始横盘
25:01 - 25:04
EN: The bulls here did not do enough to make it Always In Long,
ZH: 这里的阳线还不足以让市场进入单边上涨
25:04 - 25:09
EN: and therefore you look to the left to find the last time
ZH: 因此只能往左看，找到上一次有明确突破的地方，也就是这里
25:07 - 25:09
EN: there was clarity, and that was here.
ZH: 因此只能往左看，找到上一次有明确突破的地方，也就是这里
25:09 - 25:15
EN: So it’s Always In Short here, and this is not enough
ZH: 这里的空头突破足够强势，而这里的阳线不足以让市场进入单边上涨， 所以如果一定要选，还是选择去做空
25:12 - 25:15
EN: to make it Always In Long, and therefore it’s Always In Short.
ZH: 这里的空头突破足够强势，而这里的阳线不足以让市场进入单边上涨， 所以如果一定要选，还是选择去做空
25:19 - 25:24
EN: That means it’s slightly higher probability to go down than to reverse up.
ZH: 因为下跌的概率略高于反转上涨的概率
Slide 015
Time: 25:30
Bilingual Transcript
25:33 - 25:34
EN: When you’re looking at this, you say, oh,
ZH: 看到这样的行情，很多人可能会想：
25:34 - 25:37
EN: it went up 3 or 4 bars, sideways for a lot of bars.
ZH: 上涨了4根K线，然后这里一直在横盘
25:37 - 25:40
EN: Went up here for about 10 bars and this low.
ZH: 从前期低点附近又反弹了10来根K线
25:40 - 25:45
EN: Is it tight or broad? Well, if you can’t tell, it’s usually better to assume
ZH: 这是窄通道还是宽通道？ 如果无法确定，
25:45 - 25:49
EN: that it’s tight and only trade in the direction of the trend.
ZH: 通常最好假设它是窄通道，然后只顺着趋势的方向交易
25:50 - 25:51
EN: Trade it like a breakout.
ZH: 像交易突破一样去交易它
25:51 - 25:54
EN: It’s probably a breakout on a higher timeframe chart.
ZH: 在更高的时间周期上，它大概率是一次突破
25:54 - 25:57
EN: And because it’s a trend, you can swing part of your position.
ZH: 因为市场处于趋势，所以当然可以持有做波段
25:57 - 26:01
EN: However, because it’s mostly sideways for a lot of bars,
ZH: 然而，因为它大部分时间是横盘的
26:01 - 26:04
EN: a lot of the bears will simply scalp.
ZH: 所以很多空头会做剥头皮、赚快钱
26:04 - 26:10
EN: Every time it goes up, they’ll sell, and when it gets down near the prior low,
ZH: 每当市场上涨的时候，他们卖出做空； 回到前期低点附近时买入止盈，于是造成了这些反复的反弹
26:07 - 26:10
EN: they’ll buy, and that causes these repeated pullbacks.
ZH: 每当市场上涨的时候，他们卖出做空； 回到前期低点附近时买入止盈，于是造成了这些反复的反弹
26:10 - 26:13
EN: For the bulls, I don’t know that it’s worth buying.
ZH: 对于多头来说，我不认为这是很好的买入机会
26:13 - 26:17
EN: Especially after a big bear breakout like this and a follow-through bar,
ZH: 尤其是在这样的大阴线、以及跟随阴线之后，
26:17 - 26:20
EN: chances are whatever rally we get will be a Lower High
ZH: 不管有什么样的反弹，大概率没有办法创新高 （注：高点开始降低，是下降趋势、下降通道）
26:20 - 26:22
EN: followed by another leg down.
ZH: 然后是再一段下跌
26:28 - 26:34
EN: Again, decent looking bull bar, but following a 6 or 7 bar bear Micro Channel
ZH: 很漂亮的阳线，但左边是连续6根K线的下降微通道
26:34 - 26:36
EN: and a bear breakout and a follow-through bar.
ZH: 大阴线跌破，后面还有好的跟随
26:36 - 26:38
EN: Probably a minor reversal to a Lower High.
ZH: 所以它大概率只是反弹，形成降低的高点
26:38 - 26:41
EN: The bulls have a Double Bottom, but a bear body.
ZH: 这里有一个双底，但信号K是阴线
26:41 - 26:45
EN: They have a bull ii here, but pretty high up and not much Buying Pressure,
ZH: 这里有一个多头ii的结构， 但很可能是下降通道的上沿，没有太多买压
26:45 - 26:48
EN: so probably just part of a bear flag.
ZH: 因此大概率只是熊旗的一部分
26:48 - 26:52
EN: Here we got a failed breakout to a new low, but an extremely Tight Channel
ZH: 这里一创新低就反弹回来，但左边的通道非常非常窄
26:52 - 26:55
EN: for about 15 bars, plus the market’s still Always In Short.
ZH: 持续了10来根K线，而且此时市场仍然处于单边下跌之中
26:55 - 26:57
EN: Weak buy signal bar.
ZH: 做多信号K线很弱
26:57 - 26:58
EN: Don’t buy.
ZH: 不要买
26:58 - 27:03
EN: Now, you can argue Parabolic Wedge, reversal, close above the midpoint,
ZH: 这里，你可以说它是抛物线下跌， 反转上涨，收盘在一半以上
27:03 - 27:07
EN: but 4 consecutive bear bars – I would not take that buy.
ZH: 但左边是连续4根阴线——我不会买入 （注：确实有反弹，但不足以形成趋势，做空仍然更有可能赚到波段）
27:08 - 27:15
EN: And then here, another bull bar, the bulls hoping
ZH: 然后这里，又有一根阳线，多头希望它是低点抬高的大反转—— 下降趋势，多头突破，低点抬高
27:10 - 27:15
EN: for a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal – bear trend, bull breakout, Higher Low.
ZH: 然后这里，又有一根阳线，多头希望它是低点抬高的大反转—— 下降趋势，多头突破，低点抬高
27:15 - 27:17
EN: A High 2 buy – High 1, High 2.
ZH: 高2入场点——高1，高2
27:17 - 27:18
EN: Good-looking bull bar.
ZH: 漂亮的阳线
27:18 - 27:20
EN: Not enough bars for a major reversal.
ZH: 但K线数量不足以形成大反转
27:20 - 27:22
EN: We only went up 4 bars.
ZH: 只上涨了4根K线
27:22 - 27:28
EN: Probably a minor reversal, which means either a Trading Range or a bear flag.
ZH: 大概率只是小反转——要么是震荡区间，要么是熊旗
27:28 - 27:30
EN: It turned out to be a 1 bar bear flag.
ZH: 最后，它只是1根K线的反弹（熊旗）而已
27:30 - 27:31
EN: The bears won.
ZH: 空头获胜
27:31 - 27:33
EN: It’s a Double Top bear flag.
ZH: 这是一个双顶熊旗
27:33 - 27:40
EN: After you get a Double Top bear flag, you have a 40% chance
ZH: 双顶熊旗之后有40%的概率能赚到下跌的波段，这里空头成功了 （注：剩余60%的时候赚不到大波段，其中大部分是小赚、打平）
27:37 - 27:40
EN: of a swing down, and the bears got it.
ZH: 双顶熊旗之后有40%的概率能赚到下跌的波段，这里空头成功了 （注：剩余60%的时候赚不到大波段，其中大部分是小赚、打平）
27:40 - 27:45
EN: And usually when it does start to turn down, it’s always looking like
ZH: 在下降趋势恢复的时候，总是看起来像是要反转上涨一样
27:44 - 27:46
EN: it’s going to reverse up and form a Higher Low,
ZH: 在下降趋势恢复的时候，总是看起来像是要反转上涨一样
27:46 - 27:50
EN: a Head and Shoulders Bottom – left shoulder, head, right shoulder.
ZH: 总是有低点抬高（的反转结构）， 或者有什么头肩底——左肩，头，右肩
27:50 - 27:52
EN: But 40% chance you’re going to get a swing down.
ZH: 但空头有40%的概率能赚到下跌的波段
27:57 - 27:58
EN: We’re getting Lower Highs.
ZH: 高点仍然在降低
27:58 - 27:59
EN: Pretty good selloff.
ZH: 强势的抛售
27:59 - 28:02
EN: Reversal not strong enough to make it Always In Long,
ZH: 反转上涨，但不足以让市场进入单边上涨
28:02 - 28:05
EN: and therefore bears will look for any reason to sell.
ZH: 所以空头会找任何机会入场做空
28:05 - 28:08
EN: Some bears will only scalp until it’s clearly bearish,
ZH: 一些空头只是剥头皮，直到市场明显处于下降趋势（才开始持有做波段）
28:08 - 28:12
EN: but some bears will swing part, just in case it’s a bear channel.
ZH: 一些空头不会全部剥头皮，会持有一部分头寸，以防这是一个下降通道
28:12 - 28:15
EN: If it is a bear channel, it could last a lot of bars.
ZH: 如果真的是下降通道，那么它可以持续很久
28:21 - 28:29
EN: Now, it’s a pretty Tight Bear Channel, and some traders would also
ZH: 这是一个窄下降通道，一些空头称之为回调很小的下降趋势， 这是一种很强的趋势
28:25 - 28:29
EN: call this a Small Pullback Bear Trend, which is a very strong type of trend.
ZH: 这是一个窄下降通道，一些空头称之为回调很小的下降趋势， 这是一种很强的趋势
28:30 - 28:34
EN: A Small Pullback Bear Trend always looks like
ZH: 回调很小的下降趋势，看起来总是像要反转上涨了一样
28:33 - 28:34
EN: it’s about to reverse into a bull trend.
ZH: 回调很小的下降趋势，看起来总是像要反转上涨了一样
28:34 - 28:37
EN: It looks like a bear leg in what will become a Trading Range.
ZH: 这样的下跌波段，看起来似乎即将变成震荡区间
28:37 - 28:39
EN: However, it tends to form gaps.
ZH: 然而，空头一直在制造缺口
28:39 - 28:41
EN: The pullbacks are small.
ZH: 反弹幅度很小
28:41 - 28:46
EN: They do not go up very far, and that makes it very difficult
ZH: 涨幅太小，导致多头赚钱非常困难
28:44 - 28:46
EN: to make money as a bull.
ZH: 涨幅太小，导致多头赚钱非常困难
28:46 - 28:47
EN: You should only sell.
ZH: 因此应该只考虑做空
Slide 016
Time: 28:50
Bilingual Transcript
28:50 - 28:54
EN: So what do you think about this? We’re down about 30 or 40 bars,
ZH: 你觉得这种行情应该怎么做？ 下跌了30~40根K线
28:54 - 28:56
EN: pullbacks are only a few bars tall.
ZH: 反弹都只有几根K线而已
28:57 - 29:00
EN: Very Tight Channel, and therefore if we do get a reversal,
ZH: 非常窄的下降通道，因此就算有一些上涨
29:00 - 29:05
EN: it probably will only be minor and followed by at least a test back down here.
ZH: 那大概率也只是小反弹，至少会再次跌到这里
29:05 - 29:07
EN: More likely a resumption of the bear trend.
ZH: 下降趋势更有可能会恢复
29:08 - 29:12
EN: Whenever you look at a chart like this and you say, “Gosh, it’s going down,
ZH: 每当遇到这种行情，你想：“天呐，一直在跌
29:12 - 29:15
EN: but gosh, it’s really not strong enough for me to be selling at the low.
ZH: 但好像不是特别强，没必要在这么低的价格去追空
29:15 - 29:18
EN: I’ll wait for a pullback” – whenever you have that anxious selling,
ZH: 我还是等反弹吧”——每当你有急于卖出的想法时
29:18 - 29:21
EN: that’s your radar telling you that you have to get short,
ZH: 这是你的雷达在告诉你：必须做空
29:21 - 29:24
EN: and therefore just sell at the market.
ZH: 所以直接市价卖出就可以了
29:24 - 29:27
EN: Look to the left, find out where an appropriate stop is
ZH: 看左边，找一个合理的止损位
29:27 - 29:30
EN: - maybe above the top of this bear leg – and then just hold on.
ZH: ——比如在这个下跌波段的起跌点上方——然后坚定持有
29:43 - 29:48
EN: Whenever you’re desperately hoping for some kind of a pullback
ZH: 你迫切希望市场有一些反弹， 可以让你以更小的止损逢高做空
29:45 - 29:48
EN: so that you can sell higher and have a tighter stop,
ZH: 你迫切希望市场有一些反弹， 可以让你以更小的止损逢高做空
29:48 - 29:53
EN: that means the market’s probably going a lot lower, and you should sell.
ZH: 这说明市场大概率会继续下跌，所以应该直接做空
29:54 - 29:57
EN: A lot of times you’ll have multiple choices for a stop.
ZH: 很多时候有不止一个止损的选择
29:57 - 30:00
EN: So if you sell here, do you put your stop here? Do you put your stop here?
ZH: 如果你在这里卖出做空，止损放在这里可以吗？放在这里呢？
30:00 - 30:03
EN: Do you put your stop here? Does it go up here?
ZH: 放在这里可以吗？还是要放在这么远？
30:03 - 30:06
EN: Well, I would not use a stop that’s too tight.
ZH: 我个人不会选择太窄的止损
30:06 - 30:10
EN: There are often several possibilities for a reasonable stop,
ZH: 趋势中经常会有几个合理的止损选择
30:10 - 30:13
EN: like above here, above here, or above here.
ZH: 比如在它的上方，它的上方，或它的上方
30:13 - 30:16
EN: If you use a wider stop, less likely to get hit,
ZH: 如果选择宽止损，被打到的概率低
30:16 - 30:18
EN: so higher probability of making money.
ZH: 也就是说有更高的概率能赚钱
30:18 - 30:21
EN: But when it does get hit, you’ll lose more money.
ZH: 但每次被打到的时候亏损更大 （注：胜率变高，盈亏比变差）
30:24 - 30:29
EN: This is probably not a reasonable stop, but this probably is.
ZH: 止损放在这里不太好，放在它的上方更合理一些
Slide 017
Time: 30:30
Bilingual Transcript
30:38 - 30:46
EN: Whenever you’re in a Tight Channel, it always feels like the market
ZH: 在窄下降通道里，你始终会感觉价格太低了， 所以如果你想卖空，就一定是在低位
30:41 - 30:46
EN: is constantly at the low, and therefore if you want to sell,
ZH: 在窄下降通道里，你始终会感觉价格太低了， 所以如果你想卖空，就一定是在低位
30:44 - 30:46
EN: you’re always selling at the low.
ZH: 在窄下降通道里，你始终会感觉价格太低了， 所以如果你想卖空，就一定是在低位
30:46 - 30:49
EN: The market’s always forcing you to sell too low.
ZH: 市场强迫你在低位追空
30:49 - 30:52
EN: It always feels like the trend is not all that strong,
ZH: 它总是让你觉得趋势并没有那么强
30:52 - 30:57
EN: therefore it can reverse at any time – but because the channel is very tight,
ZH: 感觉随时可能会反转——但因为通道非常窄
30:57 - 31:01
EN: any reversal is probably minor, and therefore the risk
ZH: 所以大概率都是小反转
31:01 - 31:05
EN: of a significant reversal, the risk of a loss, is small.
ZH: 也就是说，发生大反转、导致亏损的概率很小
31:09 - 31:15
EN: The easiest way to enter when you’re feeling that way,
ZH: 如果你产生这样的感受： “求求了，能不能反弹一下，我不想在这么低的价格做空”
31:12 - 31:15
EN: when you’re feeling like “Oh my gosh, I need a pullback.
ZH: 如果你产生这样的感受： “求求了，能不能反弹一下，我不想在这么低的价格做空”
31:14 - 31:15
EN: I don’t want to sell at the low”
ZH: 如果你产生这样的感受： “求求了，能不能反弹一下，我不想在这么低的价格做空”
31:16 - 31:18
EN: - the easiest thing to do is just sell at the market.
ZH: 最好的方法是：直接市价卖出
31:18 - 31:21
EN: Just trade a very small position and sell at the market.
ZH: 用非常小的仓位，市价卖出
31:21 - 31:23
EN: If you get a pullback, you can add to your position.
ZH: 如果反弹了，你可以加仓
31:23 - 31:26
EN: If it goes straight down, you’ll make a profit.
ZH: 如果直接下跌，那就直接赚钱
31:30 - 31:34
EN: When you have several choices for stops and you’re not sure which to use,
ZH: 如果有好几个止损位的选择，你不确定该选哪个
31:34 - 31:36
EN: I would tend to use one of the further ones.
ZH: 我倾向于选择更远的
31:36 - 31:38
EN: Certainly one of the middle stops.
ZH: 至少是中间的某个高点
31:38 - 31:39
EN: If you don’t want to risk all the way up here,
ZH: 如果不想把止损放得那么远
31:39 - 31:43
EN: if you think this is too tight, then choose one of these stops.
ZH: 但这个又太近的话，选择中间的某一个就可以了
31:43 - 31:45
EN: I personally would not choose this one.
ZH: 我个人不会选择这个
31:45 - 31:48
EN: The breakout to the down side is not strong enough
ZH: 目前向下的跌破不够强（尽管创了新低）
31:48 - 31:50
EN: to make this a major Lower High.
ZH: 所以这个高点没有那么重要
31:50 - 31:52
EN: This is a more major Lower High.
ZH: 这个高点更重要一些
31:55 - 32:00
EN: So let’s say you chose that stop, and you put your stop
ZH: 假设你选择这里——把止损放在这段下跌的起跌点上方
31:57 - 32:00
EN: above the high of the bear breakout.
ZH: 假设你选择这里——把止损放在这段下跌的起跌点上方
32:00 - 32:02
EN: Let’s say it goes above that stop.
ZH: 然后假如市场突破了那个止损
32:02 - 32:06
EN: Well, if it goes above the stop and reverses down, you can always sell again.
ZH: 如果它略微突破止损，然后立刻反转下跌， 你总是可以再次入场
Slide 018
Time: 32:10
Bilingual Transcript
32:17 - 32:19
EN: When a channel is very tight like this,
ZH: 当通道这么窄的时候，
32:19 - 32:22
EN: a reversal into a bull trend is very unlikely.
ZH: 很难反转变成上涨趋势
32:22 - 32:26
EN: Usually the best the bulls can get is a Trading Range.
ZH: 最多变成震荡区间
32:26 - 32:31
EN: And then once it’s in a Trading Range, then they might be able
ZH: 在震荡区间之后，多头才有机会形成反转结构、制造大的反转
32:28 - 32:31
EN: to get a reversal – for example, a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 在震荡区间之后，多头才有机会形成反转结构、制造大的反转
32:31 - 32:35
EN: But until then, traders can sell at any point for any reason,
ZH: 在那之前，交易者可以在任何时间、以任何理由做空
32:35 - 32:43
EN: expecting that any reversal will be minor and that the odds are very high
ZH: 押注所有的上涨都是小反转，很大的概率会跌回到他们的入场价格
32:40 - 32:43
EN: that the market will come back to their entry price.
ZH: 押注所有的上涨都是小反转，很大的概率会跌回到他们的入场价格
32:43 - 32:46
EN: So for example, if you sold here or here, you got a bounce.
ZH: 比如，在这里或这里卖出做空，然后遇到了反弹
32:46 - 32:48
EN: It still went back below your entry price.
ZH: 市场仍然跌回到了入场价格
32:48 - 32:52
EN: If you sold here at the very low, it rallied against you for 5 or 6 bars,
ZH: 如果你在这里做空，很不巧，反弹了五六根K线
32:52 - 32:57
EN: but the odds were high that it would come back
ZH: 但它大概率还会跌回来，而且往往会继续下跌
32:54 - 32:57
EN: to your entry price and probably go lower.
ZH: 但它大概率还会跌回来，而且往往会继续下跌
33:05 - 33:06
EN: Remember the market cycle.
ZH: 牢记市场周期
33:07 - 33:14
EN: A Tight Channel is a very strong trend, and therefore the risk of a reversal
ZH: 窄通道是非常强的趋势， 在没有进入震荡区间之前，反转的概率很小
33:11 - 33:14
EN: is small without first entering a Trading Range,
ZH: 窄通道是非常强的趋势， 在没有进入震荡区间之前，反转的概率很小
33:14 - 33:17
EN: and that means the risk of a reversal up here is small
ZH: 也就是说反转上涨的概率很小
33:17 - 33:21
EN: without the market first going sideways at least 10 or 20 bars.
ZH: 除非市场先震荡10~20根K线
33:21 - 33:25
EN: If it goes sideways 10 or 20 bars and you sold this low
ZH: 如果接下来横盘了10~20根K线， 你是在这里入场做空的
33:25 - 33:29
EN: and then you concluded it was in a Trading Range, the odds are very high
ZH: 现在你认为市场处于震荡区间
33:29 - 33:32
EN: that you could get out breakeven, especially if you scale in higher.
ZH: 那么非常大的概率，你至少也可以打平离场， 尤其你能够逢高加仓的话
33:32 - 33:34
EN: The odds of losing money are small.
ZH: 亏钱的概率很小
Slide 019
Time: 33:45
Bilingual Transcript
33:49 - 33:53
EN: One of the key things is, no matter where you sold
ZH: 其中一个关键点是，无论你在哪里入场，
33:53 - 33:59
EN: or for whatever reason you sold, you have to rely on your stop
ZH: 不管你因为什么理由入场（注：波段或剥头皮） 只要你相信市场仍然处于反弹很小的下降趋势中， 就必须依赖你的止损
33:55 - 33:59
EN: as long as you believe it’s still in a Small Pullback Bear Trend.
ZH: 只要你相信市场仍然处于反弹很小的下降趋势中， 就必须依赖你的止损
34:00 - 34:11
EN: The first reversal up has a very high probability of forming a Lower High
ZH: 第1次上涨，很大的概率无法创新高， 会再跌回来，让你能够打平、甚至小赚离场
34:04 - 34:11
EN: and testing back down, and that will allow you to exit
ZH: 第1次上涨，很大的概率无法创新高， 会再跌回来，让你能够打平、甚至小赚离场
34:08 - 34:11
EN: with either a small profit or a small loss.
ZH: 第1次上涨，很大的概率无法创新高， 会再跌回来，让你能够打平、甚至小赚离场
34:11 - 34:17
EN: The odds of losing much money when you’re selling,
ZH: 就算你正好卖在某个阶段性的最低点， 亏钱的概率也非常小
34:13 - 34:17
EN: even at the absolute worst price, at the very bottom, are small.
ZH: 就算你正好卖在某个阶段性的最低点， 亏钱的概率也非常小
34:24 - 34:26
EN: Still Always In Short.
ZH: 仍然处于单边下跌
34:26 - 34:29
EN: Even with these bull bars it’s still Always In Short, and as I said,
ZH: 就算有这些阳线，仍然只能做空、不能做多
34:29 - 34:36
EN: the best the bulls can reasonably hope to get in a very Tight Channel
ZH: 因为在这么窄的下降通道中，反弹最多变成震荡区间或熊旗
34:33 - 34:36
EN: is either a Trading Range or a bear flag.
ZH: 因为在这么窄的下降通道中，反弹最多变成震荡区间或熊旗
34:36 - 34:38
EN: Here they got two legs up – one, pullback, two
ZH: 这里有两段反弹——1，回调，2
34:38 - 34:41
EN: - and therefore a Low 2 bear flag.
ZH: 所以是低2熊旗
34:41 - 34:43
EN: The market remained Always In Short,
ZH: 市场仍然处于单边下跌
34:43 - 34:47
EN: and the bulls will get out below a bear bar in a Low 2.
ZH: 看到低2，多头会在阴线的下方离场
34:47 - 34:48
EN: One, pullback, two.
ZH: 1，回调，2
34:48 - 34:56
EN: If they make two attempts to go up and both fail and then they see a bear bar
ZH: 如果多头两次尝试反转上涨，都失败了， 然后看到低2熊旗，以及一根阴线作为做空信号K， 他们会在它的低点下方卖出止损
34:52 - 34:56
EN: for the Low 2 sell signal bar, they’ll sell below its low.
ZH: 然后看到低2熊旗，以及一根阴线作为做空信号K， 他们会在它的低点下方卖出止损
34:56 - 35:00
EN: And because the bulls will give up after two attempts to go up,
ZH: 在两次尝试失败之后，多头放弃
35:00 - 35:04
EN: the bears will sell there as well, and you’ll probably get another leg down.
ZH: 空头也会在那里卖出，因此制造了又一段下跌
Slide 020
Time: 35:10
Bilingual Transcript
35:12 - 35:15
EN: In this particular day, the market stayed Always In Short all day.
ZH: 在这一天，市场一整天都维持单边下跌
35:15 - 35:17
EN: But that’s not always the case.
ZH: 但不是每一天都这样 （注：即使是偶尔，你也要保证遇到这种行情的时候不会大亏）
35:17 - 35:20
EN: Very often when you have a very strong bear trend,
ZH: 更常见的情况是，非常强势的下降趋势
35:20 - 35:23
EN: in the final 30 minutes, the final hour, the bears will take profits
ZH: 但是在收盘前30分钟，或1小时，空头会止盈
35:23 - 35:26
EN: and you can often get a sharp rally, a deep pullback.
ZH: 导致尾盘出现非常急剧的反弹
35:30 - 35:32
EN: And therefore when you get near the end of the day,
ZH: 所以在接近收盘的时候，
35:32 - 35:36
EN: if you see any kind of a reversal, it’s reasonable to take profits.
ZH: 看到任何反转的信号，止盈都是合理的
35:36 - 35:41
EN: Here we got a second entry buy at the low, so it’s reasonable to get out here,
ZH: 在这个低点，出现了第2做多入场点， 所以空头在这里离场是合理的
35:41 - 35:43
EN: just in case this is the start of profit-taking,
ZH: 以防很多空头开始止盈
35:43 - 35:46
EN: which could go up to this high or even higher.
ZH: 导致价格涨到这个高点，或更高
35:47 - 35:49
EN: We’re starting to get dojis.
ZH: 看是出现很多十字星
35:49 - 35:51
EN: We’re probably not going much lower.
ZH: 大概率不会下跌太多了
35:51 - 35:57
EN: Here, the market fell 5 or more points
ZH: 这里，收盘前又下跌了至少5个点，非常少见
35:54 - 35:57
EN: at the end of the day, but that’s unusual.
ZH: 这里，收盘前又下跌了至少5个点，非常少见
35:58 - 36:00
EN: This is an extremely big day,
ZH: 暴跌的一天
36:01 - 36:03
EN: and that’s why the bears were able to make 5 points.
ZH: 所以空头仍然能赚到5个点 （注：因为波动变大了）
36:03 - 36:08
EN: 5 points in this particular day is not big relative to the size of the day,
ZH: 对于今天总的跌幅而言。5个点并不算多
36:08 - 36:10
EN: and I think it’s reasonable to get out here
ZH: 我认为在这里离场是合理的
36:10 - 36:15
EN: - a second entry buy, new low, with only a half hour left in the day.
ZH: 略微创新低，立刻出现第2做多入场点， 而且离收盘只有半个小时了
36:19 - 36:21
EN: Now we have a Wedge late in the day.
ZH: 收盘前又出现了一个楔形底
36:21 - 36:23
EN: It never triggered, and therefore the bears
ZH: 十字星上方的突破买单没有触发 （注：没有突破它的高点）
36:23 - 36:26
EN: who did not get out here would not get out there.
ZH: 如果空头之前在这里没有离场， 那么在这里也不会离场
36:30 - 36:32
EN: So it’s okay to hold onto shorts.
ZH: 所以继续持有也是可以的
36:32 - 36:35
EN: However, they would get out above a bull bar
ZH: 但他们会在一根阳线的上方离场
36:35 - 36:38
EN: or a second entry buy here at the end of the day.
ZH: 或者在尾盘的第2做多入场点离场
Slide 021
Time: 36:40
Bilingual Transcript
36:44 - 36:49
EN: Can you sell at the bottom of a breakout? If this were a strong breakout,
ZH: 可以在这么低的价格开仓做空吗？ 如果是强势的跌破，
36:49 - 36:52
EN: a series of consecutive big bear bars, you certainly would sell that.
ZH: 如果是一连串大阴线，你肯定会卖出做空
36:52 - 36:55
EN: We have dojis here, we have a bear bar and then a doji.
ZH: 但这里有一些十字星，阴线，然后十字星
36:55 - 36:57
EN: The bars are not all that big,
ZH: K线的体积没有那么大
36:57 - 37:00
EN: so it’s not as strong as a typical breakout.
ZH: 所以它不是典型的强势突破
37:00 - 37:02
EN: However, it’s clearly Always In Short.
ZH: 然而，市场显然处于单边下跌
37:02 - 37:08
EN: Therefore, traders can sell at the close of this bar,
ZH: 因此，交易者可以在这根K线的收盘卖出，押注它是下降趋势的开始
37:05 - 37:08
EN: taking a chance that we trend down.
ZH: 因此，交易者可以在这根K线的收盘卖出，押注它是下降趋势的开始
37:09 - 37:12
EN: The probability of a profit is high.
ZH: 盈利的概率很高
37:12 - 37:15
EN: We have about 10 bars in a pretty tight bear Micro Channel
ZH: 这个很窄的下降微通道大约持续了10根K线
37:15 - 37:20
EN: with only a single bull bar, so the probability is we’ll get
ZH: 其中只有1根阳线，所以至少会有小的第2段下跌
37:19 - 37:20
EN: at least a small second leg down,
ZH: 其中只有1根阳线，所以至少会有小的第2段下跌
37:20 - 37:23
EN: and therefore the probability of making money is high.
ZH: 因此做空赚钱的概率很高
37:26 - 37:27
EN: But so is the risk.
ZH: 但止损也不小
37:27 - 37:32
EN: We have a bear breakout, another bear breakout, and the stop is up here.
ZH: 大阴线，又一根大阴线，止损在这里
37:32 - 37:36
EN: So yes, the probability is high, but so is the risk.
ZH: 所以，是的，胜率很高，但止损也很远
37:40 - 37:43
EN: Let’s say you sell at the bottom of a channel.
ZH: 假设你在通道的下沿卖出做空
37:43 - 37:48
EN: The probability of a profit is not quite as high, and usually the risk is not
ZH: 盈利的概率就没有那么高了（注：因为通道比突破弱） 同样，通常风险也没有那么大了
37:48 - 37:54
EN: as high as well, because the leg down is not as strong or big as in a breakout,
ZH: 因为这一段下跌的幅度不像突破那么大
37:54 - 37:57
EN: and therefore the stop is usually not quite as far as it is in a breakout.
ZH: 因此，止损通常也没有交易突破时那么远
37:58 - 38:06
EN: This breakout is not terribly dramatic, but a lot of breakouts
ZH: 这里的突破不是很剧烈，但很多突破是非常大的，止损很远很远
38:02 - 38:06
EN: are extremely big, and the stop can be very far away.
ZH: 这里的突破不是很剧烈，但很多突破是非常大的，止损很远很远
38:12 - 38:16
EN: Here, we have less probability of making money
ZH: 进入通道以后，在通道的下沿追空， 胜率没有在突破时追空那么高
38:14 - 38:16
EN: selling down here compared to here.
ZH: 进入通道以后，在通道的下沿追空， 胜率没有在突破时追空那么高
38:16 - 38:19
EN: This is a breakout; even though it’s not strong,
ZH: 这里是突破阶段，尽管没有那么强
38:19 - 38:22
EN: it’s slightly higher probability to make money than down here.
ZH: 但它赚钱的概率仍然略高于这里
38:23 - 38:25
EN: But the risk is a little bit less.
ZH: 这里的风险稍微小一些
38:25 - 38:28
EN: This is really not a good example to illustrate my point.
ZH: 可能这个案例不够明显
38:29 - 38:33
EN: If I had a chart where there was a very, very strong bear breakout,
ZH: 我想说的是那种超大阴线的空头突破
38:33 - 38:37
EN: the stop would be very far, and the probability
ZH: 止损非常远，但赚钱的概率也很高
38:35 - 38:37
EN: of making money would be very big.
ZH: 止损非常远，但赚钱的概率也很高
38:37 - 38:39
EN: Here’s a breakout, but not very big.
ZH: 这里也是突破，但没有很大
38:39 - 38:44
EN: However, the risk is further than selling in a bear channel,
ZH: 但止损仍然比在通道中做空更大
38:44 - 38:47
EN: and the probability of making money is greater.
ZH: 赚钱的概率也更高
Slide 022
Time: 38:50
Bilingual Transcript
38:52 - 38:57
EN: I gave my definition of what a Tight Bear Channel is, and if the market’s
ZH: 这节课我给出了窄下降通道的定义，
38:57 - 38:59
EN: in a Tight Bear Channel, it’s very difficult to make money buying.
ZH: 如果市场处于窄下降通道，多头是很难赚到钱的
38:59 - 39:01
EN: You should only look to sell.
ZH: 因此只考虑做空
39:02 - 39:08
EN: A Tight Bear Channel is a strong breakout,
ZH: 窄下降通道，在更高的时间周期上，就是一次空头突破
39:05 - 39:08
EN: a bear breakout on a higher timeframe chart, and again,
ZH: 窄下降通道，在更高的时间周期上，就是一次空头突破
39:08 - 39:10
EN: you should only be selling when the market’s in a breakout.
ZH: 在空头突破阶段，当然只能顺势做空
39:11 - 39:15
EN: Most of the time you’ll get small, Tight Bull Channels
ZH: 下降趋势中经常会有小的窄上涨通道
39:15 - 39:20
EN: within the Tight Bear Channel (the bear trend) and they’re bear flags.
ZH: 它们大部分时候只是熊旗而已
39:20 - 39:24
EN: However, if you get an endless pullback, if the market pulls back 5 bars
ZH: 然而，如果遇到了无尽的反弹—— 一开始只是5根K线，
39:24 - 39:28
EN: and then 10 bars or 15 or 20 bars, instead of it being a bear flag,
ZH: 然后发展到了10、15、甚至20根K线， 那它就不再是熊旗了
39:28 - 39:31
EN: it might be the start of a bull trend.
ZH: 有可能是上涨趋势的开始
39:31 - 39:34
EN: You have to be watching for a series of consecutive bull bars
ZH: 你必须观察是否有连续的阳线
39:34 - 39:37
EN: and especially a strong bear breakout with follow-through
ZH: 尤其要观察，是否有大阳线和跟随
39:37 - 39:44
EN: before you decide that you’re getting a bull breakout
ZH: 以此判断是否会向上突破熊旗，并让市场转变成为上涨趋势
39:40 - 39:44
EN: above the bear flag and that the market is turning into a bull trend.
ZH: 以此判断是否会向上突破熊旗，并让市场转变成为上涨趋势
39:48 - 39:49
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
39:49 - 39:51
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
39:51 - 39:55
EN: This is the first of four videos on trading Tight Bear Channels.
ZH: 如何交易窄下降通道的第一节课，就先讲到这里