al-brooks-course
43A - Trading Tight Bull Channels
Raw transcript and slide notes for 43A - Trading Tight Bull Channels.
Overview
- Slides: 21
- Transcript segments: 649
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:10
EN: This is the first of four videos on trading Tight Bull Channels.
ZH: 接下来的4节课，我们来讲如何交易窄上涨通道
Slide 001
Time: 00:11
Bilingual Transcript
00:14 - 00:18
EN: I want to begin by describing what I mean by a Tight Bull Channel.
ZH: 首先我会描述窄上涨通道的定义
00:18 - 00:22
EN: When a channel is tight, it’s a breakout on a higher timeframe chart,
ZH: 如果通道很窄，那么它在更高的时间周期上就是一次突破
00:22 - 00:26
EN: and when the market’s in a bull breakout it’s better to only look to buy.
ZH: 当市场处于多头突破时，最好只考虑做多
00:27 - 00:31
EN: Sometimes when the market’s in a bull trend, it can have a bear channel,
ZH: 有时在上涨趋势中，会出现一个下降通道
00:31 - 00:33
EN: and the bear channel can be very tight.
ZH: 甚至可能是窄下降通道
00:33 - 00:35
EN: It’s usually a bull flag.
ZH: 那通常是一个牛旗
00:35 - 00:41
EN: However, if it grows to 10 or 20 bars and then has a big bear breakout,
ZH: 然而，如果下降通道持续10、20根K线， 然后大阴线向下跌破
00:41 - 00:44
EN: that’s a bear breakout below the bull flag
ZH: 那么牛旗就被破坏了
00:44 - 00:47
EN: and it can lead to a bear trend and a Measured Move down.
ZH: 可以让市场进入下降趋势，跌到MM目标位
Slide 002
Time: 00:48
Bilingual Transcript
00:52 - 00:56
EN: There are two types of channels.
ZH: 有两种通道——窄通道和宽通道
00:54 - 00:56
EN: They can be tight or broad.
ZH: 有两种通道——窄通道和宽通道
00:56 - 00:59
EN: Sometimes you cannot tell the difference between the two,
ZH: 有时不太好判断它到底是窄还是宽
00:59 - 01:07
EN: and when you cannot tell whether it’s tight or broad,
ZH: 当你无法区分时，就按照窄通道来——顺着趋势的方向交易
01:03 - 01:07
EN: trade it like it’s tight and only trade in the direction of the trend.
ZH: 当你无法区分时，就按照窄通道来——顺着趋势的方向交易
01:11 - 01:14
EN: When a channel looks like this, it’s a breakout on a higher timeframe chart.
ZH: 像这样的通道，在更高的时间周期上是一次突破
01:14 - 01:15
EN: Only look to buy.
ZH: 所以只能做多
01:15 - 01:20
EN: The pullbacks only last a bar, a bar, a couple bars here.
ZH: 回调只持续一根K线，一根，这里两根
01:20 - 01:21
EN: The pullbacks are small.
ZH: 回调幅度很小
01:21 - 01:29
EN: Here, the pullbacks can be big and some of the reversals can be strong enough
ZH: 而这里，回调幅度很大，有些反转足够强势， 让你感觉市场一度处于单边下跌之中
01:26 - 01:29
EN: to make you think that the market’s Always In Short.
ZH: 而这里，回调幅度很大，有些反转足够强势， 让你感觉市场一度处于单边下跌之中
01:29 - 01:35
EN: In fact, it can be Always In Short, but it’s still a bull channel
ZH: 确实有短暂的单边下跌，但仍然在大的上涨通道内， 高点和低点仍然都在抬高
01:32 - 01:35
EN: if it’s forming Higher Lows and Higher Highs.
ZH: 确实有短暂的单边下跌，但仍然在大的上涨通道内， 高点和低点仍然都在抬高
01:35 - 01:38
EN: You can see the pullback here lasted 8 or 9 bars,
ZH: 可以看到，这里的回调持续了8~9根K线
01:38 - 01:41
EN: pullback here, very big bear bars, couple legs down.
ZH: 这里则是很大的阴线，有两段下跌
01:42 - 01:47
EN: Much stronger selling in a Broad Bull Channel than in a Tight Bull Channel.
ZH: 相比窄上涨通道，宽上涨通道中有更强的抛售
01:50 - 01:52
EN: Again, when it’s in a Tight Bull Channel,
ZH: 再次强调，当市场处于窄上涨通道，
01:52 - 01:54
EN: traders should be buying for any reason.
ZH: 交易者应该用任何方式买入做多
01:54 - 01:57
EN: They should buy below bars, betting reversals will fail.
ZH: 可以在K线下方挂限价买单，押注反转失败
01:57 - 02:02
EN: They can buy above bars, betting on resumption of the bull trend here and here,
ZH: 可以在K线上方用突破单买入，押注上涨趋势恢复，比如这里、这里
02:02 - 02:07
EN: and they can buy strong bear breakouts betting that the reversals will fail.
ZH: 可以在向下跌破时买入，押注空头突破失败
02:07 - 02:09
EN: So they can buy the close of a big bear bar.
ZH: 他们会在大阴线的收盘买入
02:14 - 02:18
EN: When a channel is broad, you can buy for swings and for scalps,
ZH: 遇到宽通道，既可以买入做波段，也可以剥头皮
02:18 - 02:22
EN: but sellers can make money scalping, selling above bars
ZH: 但空头也可以剥头皮赚钱，他们在K线上方卖出——
02:22 - 02:29
EN: - selling above a high, scaling in higher, and then getting out breakeven
ZH: 在前期高点做空，在上方加仓，跌回来的时候， 初始仓位打平，加仓的部分赚钱
02:27 - 02:29
EN: on their first entry and a profit on their second entry.
ZH: 在前期高点做空，在上方加仓，跌回来的时候， 初始仓位打平，加仓的部分赚钱
02:34 - 02:37
EN: The bears are reasonably strong, very big bear bars,
ZH: 空头比较强壮，有很大的大阴线
02:37 - 02:47
EN: a series of bear bars during the pullback, and therefore enough Selling Pressure
ZH: 回调时有一连串阴线，有足够大的卖压可以让空头赚到钱 ——空头用突破单入场也能赚到钱，更不用说限价卖单了
02:41 - 02:47
EN: so traders can make money selling – sometimes even with stop orders,
ZH: 回调时有一连串阴线，有足够大的卖压可以让空头赚到钱 ——空头用突破单入场也能赚到钱，更不用说限价卖单了
02:45 - 02:47
EN: but certainly with limit orders.
ZH: 回调时有一连串阴线，有足够大的卖压可以让空头赚到钱 ——空头用突破单入场也能赚到钱，更不用说限价卖单了
02:50 - 02:53
EN: Bulls will buy reversals up.
ZH: 多头买入押注反转
02:53 - 02:57
EN: Higher Low Major Trend Reversal, strong breakout, bull flag, bull flag.
ZH: 低点抬高的大反转，强势突破，牛旗，牛旗
02:57 - 02:59
EN: Every pullback.
ZH: 每次回调，多头都会买入
02:58 - 02:59
EN: They’re buying pullbacks.
ZH: 每次回调，多头都会买入
02:59 - 03:02
EN: Here they’re buying for any reason, including breakouts to new highs.
ZH: 窄通道里，多头在任何地方都会买入，包括创新高的时候
03:02 - 03:04
EN: They could buy above a prior high.
ZH: 他们会在突破前期高点时追涨
03:04 - 03:09
EN: Here, when you’re in a broader channel when the market goes to a new high,
ZH: 而这里，处于宽上涨通道，当市场创新高时
03:09 - 03:13
EN: bulls sell to take partial or full profits, and they prefer to buy pullbacks.
ZH: 多头会卖出止盈部分或全部仓位， 他们更喜欢在回调时逢低买入（而不是在新高追涨）
03:14 - 03:18
EN: And the bears will start selling at prior highs and on reversals down
ZH: 空头会在前期高点挂单做空，或者在反转下跌时做空
03:18 - 03:22
EN: - for example, a stop below here, a Micro Double Top, a Wedge
ZH: ——比如，在它的下方，小双顶，楔形
03:22 - 03:25
EN: - one, two, three – failed breakout above this high.
ZH: ——1，2，3； 突破这个高点失败
03:25 - 03:28
EN: And they’ll also place limit orders to sell at a prior high
ZH: 他们会在前期高点挂限价卖单
03:28 - 03:32
EN: and sell more higher, especially on a reversal down.
ZH: 然后在更高的价格加仓； 空头当然也会在反转下跌时做空
Slide 003
Time: 03:35
Bilingual Transcript
03:38 - 03:45
EN: The reason why I draw a distinction between a Tight Channel
ZH: 窄通道和宽通道的交易方法不同，所以需要区分它们
03:41 - 03:45
EN: and a Broad Channel is because I trade them differently.
ZH: 窄通道和宽通道的交易方法不同，所以需要区分它们
03:49 - 03:53
EN: When a channel is tight, it’s very difficult to make money selling,
ZH: 如果通道很窄，做空很难赚到钱
03:53 - 03:59
EN: and most of the pullbacks do not fall far enough
ZH: 回调的幅度不够大，不足以让空头赚钱——尤其是用突破卖单入场
03:56 - 03:59
EN: to allow a bear to make money, especially with stop orders.
ZH: 回调的幅度不够大，不足以让空头赚钱——尤其是用突破卖单入场
03:59 - 04:06
EN: And therefore, since it’s difficult for the bears to make money
ZH: 正因为空头赚不到钱，市场在不断上涨， 所以最好只考虑做多
04:02 - 04:06
EN: and the market’s going up, it’s better to only look to buy.
ZH: 正因为空头赚不到钱，市场在不断上涨， 所以最好只考虑做多
04:13 - 04:17
EN: Whenever you look at a chart and you can see that it’s relatively easy
ZH: 如果你发现是上涨趋势，
04:17 - 04:24
EN: for the bears to make money in a bull trend, then assume the channel is broad
ZH: 但空头能够较为容易地赚到钱，那么可以假设市场处于宽通道， 做多做空都可以
04:21 - 04:24
EN: and you can probably trade in both directions.
ZH: 但空头能够较为容易地赚到钱，那么可以假设市场处于宽通道， 做多做空都可以
04:24 - 04:27
EN: However, if you look at a chart and you look at it and say,
ZH: 但是，如果你在K线图上发现：
04:27 - 04:36
EN: how can the bears possibly make money? The reversals are small,
ZH: 空头怎么可能赚得到钱？回调这么小，只持续一两根K线 ——就算逢高做空也几乎赚不到钱
04:31 - 04:36
EN: they only last a couple bars – even selling above bars,
ZH: 空头怎么可能赚得到钱？回调这么小，只持续一两根K线 ——就算逢高做空也几乎赚不到钱
04:34 - 04:36
EN: it’s not pulling back enough to make money.
ZH: 空头怎么可能赚得到钱？回调这么小，只持续一两根K线 ——就算逢高做空也几乎赚不到钱
04:36 - 04:39
EN: If you look at a chart and come to that conclusion,
ZH: 如果你在K线图上得到这样的结论
04:39 - 04:42
EN: then the channel is tight and you should only look to buy.
ZH: 说明通道很窄，只能做多
Slide 004
Time: 04:45
Bilingual Transcript
04:50 - 04:54
EN: When I think a channel might be tight, I’m looking for characteristics
ZH: 当我假设通道很窄时，我会寻找一些特征，
04:54 - 04:59
EN: that increase the probability that, in fact,
ZH: 它们增加了市场确实处于窄通道的概率
04:57 - 04:59
EN: it is tight and I should only look to buy.
ZH: 它们增加了市场确实处于窄通道的概率
04:59 - 05:02
EN: Do the pullbacks only last 1 or 2 or 3 bars?
ZH: 回调是否只持续1~3根K线？
05:02 - 05:04
EN: Here, a 1 bar pullback, here, 2 bar pullback.
ZH: 这里回调了一根K线，这里两根K线
05:04 - 05:10
EN: Here two legs down, but only 1 bar breakout
ZH: 这里有两段回调，但跌破前期低点之后只持续了一根K线
05:08 - 05:10
EN: below the low of the prior Higher Low.
ZH: 这里有两段回调，但跌破前期低点之后只持续了一根K线
05:16 - 05:20
EN: Is the pullback small relative to an average scalp size?
ZH: 回调的幅度是否小于剥头皮的最小目标？
05:20 - 05:23
EN: In the Emini, an average scalp size is 1 point,
ZH: 在ES中，剥头皮的最小目标是1个点
05:23 - 05:26
EN: and are the pullbacks all less than 2 or 3 points?
ZH: 回调的幅度是否小于2~3个点？
05:27 - 05:31
EN: In other words, it’s very difficult to make money scalping if you’re shorting.
ZH: 换句话说，空头剥头皮是不是很难赚到钱？
05:34 - 05:36
EN: Also, I look at the size of the pullbacks.
ZH: 还有一个判断回调大小的方法：
05:36 - 05:39
EN: Are they small relative to the height of an average bar?
ZH: 把回调幅度和K线的平均高度相比较
05:40 - 05:46
EN: If this is an average bar, are the pullbacks less than two
ZH: 如果这是一根K线的平均高度，回调幅度是否小于它的两到三倍？
05:44 - 05:46
EN: to three times the size of that bar?
ZH: 如果这是一根K线的平均高度，回调幅度是否小于它的两到三倍？
05:46 - 05:49
EN: And if that’s the case, again, very difficult to make money selling.
ZH: 如果是，那么也说明做空很难赚到钱
05:54 - 06:01
EN: When you see a sell setup that would allow traders to enter with a stop
ZH: 当你看到有做空的机会——有不错的阴线， 假如空头在它的下方用突破卖单入场——比如这里，
05:58 - 06:01
EN: and the bears have a decent sell signal bar – here,
ZH: 当你看到有做空的机会——有不错的阴线， 假如空头在它的下方用突破卖单入场——比如这里，
06:01 - 06:03
EN: it’s a second entry short – first and second
ZH: 而且它是第2做空入场点——第1，第2
06:03 - 06:10
EN: - yet the bears are still losing selling with a good sell signal bar
ZH: 即使有好的做空信号K，而且是第2入场点， 但你发现空头仍然亏钱，那么就不应该做空了
06:07 - 06:10
EN: on a second entry short, then you should not be selling.
ZH: 即使有好的做空信号K，而且是第2入场点， 但你发现空头仍然亏钱，那么就不应该做空了
06:10 - 06:13
EN: You certainly should not be selling with stop entries.
ZH: 显然不应该用突破卖单入场做空
06:13 - 06:15
EN: The channel is probably tight.
ZH: 很可能是窄上涨通道
06:15 - 06:19
EN: It’s probably a Small Pullback Bull Trend,
ZH: 是一个回调很小的上涨趋势，只应该考虑买入
06:17 - 06:19
EN: and you should only be looking to buy.
ZH: 是一个回调很小的上涨趋势，只应该考虑买入
06:22 - 06:27
EN: Most of the pullbacks only pull back a third to a half of the prior bull leg.
ZH: 大多数回调的幅度只有上涨波段的三分之一到一半
06:28 - 06:32
EN: Here, the pullback is only about a quarter of the height of the prior bull leg.
ZH: 这里，这个回调幅度只有上涨波段的四分之一
06:32 - 06:34
EN: The pullbacks are small.
ZH: 回调很小
06:39 - 06:41
EN: And you see a lot of gaps.
ZH: 有很多缺口
06:41 - 06:48
EN: Here’s a bull trend resumption, so its low creates a gap
ZH: 这里恢复上涨，回调的低点和前期的突破点之间存在缺口
06:45 - 06:48
EN: with the breakout point before it, so we have a gap.
ZH: 这里恢复上涨，回调的低点和前期的突破点之间存在缺口
06:48 - 06:52
EN: This low barely tested the high of this buy signal bar.
ZH: 这个低点几乎测试了这个做多信号K线的高点
06:53 - 06:56
EN: We have a breakout above here, and barely overlapping.
ZH: 再次向上突破，回调没有什么重叠
06:58 - 07:02
EN: If a bear sells at a prior high and scales in higher,
ZH: 如果空头在前期高点挂单做空，并且逢高加仓，
07:02 - 07:04
EN: is it very difficult for him to make money or is he getting trapped?
ZH: 他能赚到钱吗？还是会被套牢？
07:05 - 07:09
EN: When you see gaps, it’s very difficult
ZH: 如果有缺口，就说明空头很难通过限价卖单赚钱
07:07 - 07:09
EN: for bears to make money with limit orders.
ZH: 如果有缺口，就说明空头很难通过限价卖单赚钱
07:09 - 07:12
EN: Selling at a prior high and scaling in higher,
ZH: 在前期高点挂单做空，并且逢高加仓
07:12 - 07:17
EN: you need the market to come back to your original entry to make a profit.
ZH: 需要价格跌回到初始入场价格才能赚钱
07:17 - 07:23
EN: If you have gaps, then it’s very difficult for the bears
ZH: 如果有缺口（注：说明没有跌回到初始入场价格）， 那么用限价卖单做空并加仓的空头，就很难赚到钱
07:20 - 07:23
EN: to make money selling at prior highs and scaling in.
ZH: 如果有缺口（注：说明没有跌回到初始入场价格）， 那么用限价卖单做空并加仓的空头，就很难赚到钱
07:23 - 07:24
EN: Here’s another gap here.
ZH: 这里也有一个缺口
07:24 - 07:29
EN: If a bear sold at this high and scaled in higher, he could not make a profit.
ZH: 如果空头在这个高点挂单卖出，并且加仓，是赚不到钱的
07:29 - 07:33
EN: The reversal down did not go down to his original entry price.
ZH: 市场没有跌回到他的初始入场价格
07:34 - 07:38
EN: Difficult for the bears to make money, and therefore you should not be selling.
ZH: 既然做空赚不到钱，那么你就不应该做空
07:38 - 07:42
EN: If you’re selling, you’re planning on making money, if you look to the left,
ZH: 也许你想通过做空赚钱，但是看左边：
07:42 - 07:45
EN: you say, “oh, the bears are not making money,” you don’t want to join them.
ZH: “额，没有空头能赚到钱”，所以你不想加入他们
07:45 - 07:47
EN: You should only be looking to buy.
ZH: 只应该考虑做多
07:47 - 07:49
EN: Whenever it’s difficult for the bears to make money,
ZH: 每当你发现空头很难赚到钱，
07:49 - 07:52
EN: the market’s telling you, you should only be looking to buy.
ZH: 这就说明市场在告诉你：你应该只考虑做多
Slide 005
Time: 07:55
Bilingual Transcript
08:00 - 08:04
EN: Again, the pullbacks are just too small for the bears to make money,
ZH: 再讲一遍，回调幅度太小，不足以让空头赚钱
08:04 - 08:07
EN: and the bears will lose money, and therefore you should never sell.
ZH: 既然做空会亏钱，所以你不应该考虑卖出
08:07 - 08:12
EN: Unlike a Broad Bull Channel when the bears can make money fairly easily,
ZH: 不同于在宽通道中，做空相对容易能赚到钱
08:12 - 08:15
EN: in a Tight Bull Channel it’s very difficult to make money.
ZH: 在窄上涨通道中，做空很难赚钱
08:15 - 08:19
EN: They might make money occasionally, but they’ll lose more on the bad trades
ZH: 也许偶尔能赚一笔，但更多的是亏钱的糟糕的交易
08:19 - 08:21
EN: and they’ll end up losing money on the day.
ZH: 这样的做法最终是亏损的
08:21 - 08:25
EN: When a trend looks like this, despite all of these reversals,
ZH: 当看到这样的趋势，尽管有很多回调，
08:25 - 08:27
EN: the pullbacks are too small to make money.
ZH: 但跌幅不足以让空头赚钱
08:27 - 08:29
EN: You should only be looking to buy.
ZH: 你应该只考虑做多
08:34 - 08:37
EN: All bull trends are constantly forming Wedge Tops.
ZH: 所有的上涨趋势都在不断形成楔形顶
08:37 - 08:39
EN: One, two, three.
ZH: 1，2，3
08:39 - 08:40
EN: One, two, three.
ZH: 1，2，3
08:40 - 08:41
EN: One, two, three.
ZH: 1，2，3
08:41 - 08:42
EN: It doesn’t matter.
ZH: 但它们不重要
08:42 - 08:46
EN: All bull trends are always going to be forming Wedge Tops.
ZH: 所有的上涨趋势都总是形成楔形顶
08:46 - 08:48
EN: But when the channel is tight, do not sell.
ZH: 但通道很窄时，不要做空
08:48 - 08:51
EN: The bull trend ignores the Wedge Tops.
ZH: 上涨趋势会忽略这些“顶部形态”
08:51 - 08:55
EN: The reversals end up as bull flags, and the market keeps on going higher.
ZH: 回调最终变成牛旗，然后继续上涨
08:55 - 08:56
EN: Only look to buy.
ZH: 只考虑买入
08:56 - 09:00
EN: Expect all reversals to fail and for the bull trend to resume.
ZH: 预期所有反转都会失败，上涨趋势恢复
09:03 - 09:05
EN: Different ways to draw Wedge Tops.
ZH: 可以画出很多楔形顶
09:05 - 09:07
EN: We have a small Wedge here, we have a bigger Wedge here.
ZH: 这里有一个小楔形，这里有一个更大的楔形
09:12 - 09:16
EN: The weak bears take the reversal,
ZH: 弱空头押注楔形顶反转，想要做空赚钱
09:14 - 09:16
EN: betting that the Wedge Top is going to be profitable.
ZH: 弱空头押注楔形顶反转，想要做空赚钱
09:16 - 09:17
EN: They lose money.
ZH: 然后亏钱
09:17 - 09:19
EN: And the weak bulls who bought for any reason
ZH: 而之前买入的弱多头
09:19 - 09:21
EN: - let’s say above this small bull flag
ZH: ——比如在这个小牛旗上方买入的弱多头
09:21 - 09:25
EN: - they’ll exit and miss the remainder of the bull trend.
ZH: ——他们在楔形顶离场，错过了剩余的上涨趋势
09:27 - 09:28
EN: More Wedge Tops.
ZH: 还有很多楔形顶
09:28 - 09:29
EN: One, two, three.
ZH: 1，2，3
09:29 - 09:30
EN: One, two, three.
ZH: 1，2，3
09:32 - 09:33
EN: The reversals are minor.
ZH: 都只是小反转
09:33 - 09:36
EN: They become bull flags and the trend resumes.
ZH: 它们变成了牛旗，然后上涨趋势恢复
Slide 006
Time: 09:35
Bilingual Transcript
09:41 - 09:44
EN: When a beginner is trading, all he thinks about is risk.
ZH: 当新手在交易时，他只考虑风险
09:44 - 09:47
EN: He knows that if he buys for any reason, his stop is too far.
ZH: 他觉得如果买入做多，止损太远了
09:47 - 09:49
EN: His risk is too big.
ZH: 他的风险太大了
09:49 - 09:53
EN: But if he sells, his stop is close, just above the high of the sell signal bar,
ZH: 但如果做空，他的止损很近，就在做空信号K线的高点上方
09:53 - 09:58
EN: and therefore his risk is small and his reward is potentially huge.
ZH: 所以风险很小，而潜在的利润巨大
09:58 - 10:05
EN: He sees a great risk/reward, but he ignores the third variable
ZH: 他觉得盈亏比很好，但忽略了数学期望中的第3个变量：概率
10:02 - 10:05
EN: of the Trader’s Equation: probability.
ZH: 他觉得盈亏比很好，但忽略了数学期望中的第3个变量：概率
10:05 - 10:09
EN: Whenever you have a very small risk, you’re probably going to lose money
ZH: 每当风险很小的时候，你大概率会亏钱
10:09 - 10:14
EN: because you cannot have a great risk/reward ratio and a very high probability.
ZH: 因为不可能同时拥有很高的盈亏比和很高的概率
10:14 - 10:19
EN: But beginners, all they see is risk, and they see the risk of buying as big,
ZH: 而新手只考虑风险，他们认为做多的风险太大了
10:19 - 10:23
EN: the risk of selling as small, and therefore they sell
ZH: 而做空的风险小，所以他们做空
10:23 - 10:31
EN: - ignoring the reality that the probability is very tiny
ZH: 忽略了一个事实——做空能赚到钱的概率非常低， 而做多能赚到钱的概率很高
10:26 - 10:31
EN: that they’ll make money selling, and the probability is very high
ZH: 忽略了一个事实——做空能赚到钱的概率非常低， 而做多能赚到钱的概率很高
10:29 - 10:31
EN: that they’ll make money buying.
ZH: 忽略了一个事实——做空能赚到钱的概率非常低， 而做多能赚到钱的概率很高
10:31 - 10:35
EN: The probability more than offsets the risk for the bulls,
ZH: 做多在概率上有巨大的优势，弥补了风险
10:35 - 10:44
EN: and the probability is so big against the bears
ZH: 而空头在概率上的劣势非常大， 压倒了他们在盈亏比上的优势
10:38 - 10:44
EN: that the small risk gets overwhelmed by the low probability
ZH: 而空头在概率上的劣势非常大， 压倒了他们在盈亏比上的优势
10:42 - 10:44
EN: of making money to the high probability of losing money.
ZH: 而空头在概率上的劣势非常大， 压倒了他们在盈亏比上的优势
10:50 - 10:54
EN: Beginners, because they want small risk, they’re looking to sell every reversal,
ZH: 新手，因为他们想要小风险、大利润， 所以一直做空、做反转
10:54 - 10:57
EN: and what they usually see are two things:
ZH: 他们的眼中只有两件事：
10:57 - 11:00
EN: Wedge Tops and strong sell signal bars.
ZH: 楔形顶和做空信号K
11:00 - 11:03
EN: They’re attracted to them like a fly to a light,
ZH: 它们像飞蛾扑火一样被吸引住
11:03 - 11:05
EN: and they just get burned repeatedly.
ZH: 然后一次次被烧成灰烬
11:05 - 11:09
EN: Each loss is small, but if you have a bunch of small losses,
ZH: 尽管每次的亏损很小，但一堆小亏累积起来，
11:09 - 11:13
EN: at the end of the day, you have a shockingly huge loss on the day.
ZH: 一天下来，你震惊地发现亏了非常多的钱
11:18 - 11:20
EN: The Trader’s Equation, three variables,
ZH: 数学期望里有三个变量
11:20 - 11:23
EN: and risk is not any more important than probability.
ZH: 风险和概率同样重要
11:23 - 11:26
EN: The three variables – risk, reward, and probability
ZH: 三个变量——风险、利润和概率
11:26 - 11:29
EN: - are all important, and you cannot focus only on risk.
ZH: 它们都很重要，所以不能只关注风险
11:29 - 11:32
EN: You have to always think about probability,
ZH: 你必须时刻思考概率
11:32 - 11:36
EN: and whenever the risk is really small, you’re probably going to lose money.
ZH: 每当风险非常小的时候，你大概率会亏钱
11:36 - 11:38
EN: The probability of making money is small.
ZH: 赚钱的概率很小
11:41 - 11:44
EN: Do not sell when the channel is tight.
ZH: 在窄上涨通道中不要做空
11:44 - 11:45
EN: The pullbacks are small.
ZH: 回调太小了
11:45 - 11:47
EN: It’s a Small Pullback Bull Trend.
ZH: 这是回调很小的上涨趋势
11:47 - 11:49
EN: The market’s going higher.
ZH: 市场不断上涨
11:49 - 11:52
EN: It’s a breakout on the next higher timeframe, a 15-minute chart.
ZH: 在更高的时间周期，比如在15分钟图上，它就是一次突破
11:52 - 11:54
EN: Only buy.
ZH: 只能做多
11:54 - 11:58
EN: And if the stop is too far, then don’t trade.
ZH: 如果觉得止损太远，那就不要交易
11:59 - 12:02
EN: Not losing money is certainly better than losing money.
ZH: 不赚钱总归比亏钱要好
12:03 - 12:07
EN: If you choose to sell – in other words,
ZH: 如果选择做空——做低风险的交易，这样做会亏钱
12:05 - 12:07
EN: take the low-risk trade – you’re going to lose money.
ZH: 如果选择做空——做低风险的交易，这样做会亏钱
12:08 - 12:13
EN: And if the risk is too big for you to use the appropriate stop, don’t trade.
ZH: 如果对你来说止损距离太远了，那就不要开仓
12:13 - 12:16
EN: Just watch the day unfold and learn from it.
ZH: 可以静静观察当天的走势并从中学习
12:16 - 12:21
EN: Learn that all the reversal attempts will fail
ZH: 你学到所有的反转都失败了，趋势不断越涨越高
12:19 - 12:21
EN: and the day will keep going higher.
ZH: 你学到所有的反转都失败了，趋势不断越涨越高
Slide 007
Time: 12:24
Bilingual Transcript
12:25 - 12:29
EN: Again, I made the point that when a channel is tight,
ZH: 再次强调，如果上涨通道很窄，
12:29 - 12:36
EN: it’s a breakout on the next higher timeframe, and if the market’s
ZH: 那么它在更高的时间周期上就是一次突破， 所以你只能顺着趋势的方向交易
12:32 - 12:36
EN: in a strong breakout, you only want to be trading in the direction of the trend.
ZH: 那么它在更高的时间周期上就是一次突破， 所以你只能顺着趋势的方向交易
Slide 008
Time: 12:37
Bilingual Transcript
12:39 - 12:42
EN: Here’s a 5-minute chart and here’s a 30-minute chart.
ZH: 左边是5分钟图，右边是它的30分钟图
12:42 - 12:47
EN: Lots of reversals, lots of bear bars, but the pullbacks are very small.
ZH: 很多反转（的尝试），很多阴线，但回调幅度非常小
12:48 - 12:50
EN: And if you look at the next higher timeframe chart
ZH: 如果你看更高的时间周期
12:50 - 12:54
EN: - here I have a 30-minute chart instead of a 15-minute chart – look at the chart.
ZH: ——这里我显示30分钟图，你也可以看15分钟图——仔细观察
12:54 - 12:58
EN: Every bar is a bull bar all the way up until we get here.
ZH: 全都是阳线，一直到这里为止
12:58 - 13:01
EN: And if you look at this, are you saying, “Wow, what a great sell setup”?
ZH: 当你看到这样的走势，你会说：“哇！完美的做空机会！”
13:01 - 13:09
EN: Or are you saying, “Oh, every bar is a bull bar.
ZH: 还是会认为：“额，每根K线都是阳线， 每根K线的收盘价都在抬高，这是强上涨趋势，我应该只考虑做多”？
13:04 - 13:09
EN: Every close is above the prior bar’s close.
ZH: 还是会认为：“额，每根K线都是阳线， 每根K线的收盘价都在抬高，这是强上涨趋势，我应该只考虑做多”？
13:06 - 13:09
EN: This is a strong bull trend.
ZH: 还是会认为：“额，每根K线都是阳线， 每根K线的收盘价都在抬高，这是强上涨趋势，我应该只考虑做多”？
13:08 - 13:14
EN: I only want to buy”? And that’s the conclusion you should draw
ZH: 还是会认为：“额，每根K线都是阳线， 每根K线的收盘价都在抬高，这是强上涨趋势，我应该只考虑做多”？ 那就是你看到窄上涨通道时应该得到的结论
13:12 - 13:14
EN: when you look at a very Tight Bull Channel.
ZH: 那就是你看到窄上涨通道时应该得到的结论
13:14 - 13:18
EN: You know if the pullbacks are small, a higher timeframe chart looks like this,
ZH: 你知道，如果回调很小，那么在更高的时间周期上， K线图看起来就像是这样
13:18 - 13:21
EN: and if you see that, you cannot be thinking about selling.
ZH: 看到这样的上涨，就不能想着做空了
13:27 - 13:31
EN: This series of bars within the green channel is this series of bars.
ZH: 左边这个绿色的上涨通道，就是这一系列K线
13:32 - 13:37
EN: You have to train yourself to imagine what this looks like
ZH: 你必须要能够想象出它在更高时间周期上的模样
13:35 - 13:37
EN: on the next higher timeframe chart.
ZH: 你必须要能够想象出它在更高时间周期上的模样
13:37 - 13:47
EN: Or you just simply convert it into a 15-minute chart or a 30-minute chart
ZH: 只需要切换到15分钟，或30分钟，或60分钟的K线图， 你就会看到一个很强的上涨趋势，尽管在5分钟上有很多阴线和回调
13:41 - 13:47
EN: or a 60-minute chart, and you’ll see a very strong bull trend
ZH: 只需要切换到15分钟，或30分钟，或60分钟的K线图， 你就会看到一个很强的上涨趋势，尽管在5分钟上有很多阴线和回调
13:44 - 13:47
EN: despite the bear bars and the frequent reversals.
ZH: 只需要切换到15分钟，或30分钟，或60分钟的K线图， 你就会看到一个很强的上涨趋势，尽管在5分钟上有很多阴线和回调
13:47 - 13:50
EN: The pullbacks are small, again, only lasting a bar or two,
ZH: 所有的回调都很小，只持续一两根K线
13:50 - 13:52
EN: and then the bull trend resumes.
ZH: 然后上涨趋势就恢复
13:52 - 13:54
EN: When that’s the case, only buy.
ZH: 在这种情况下，只能买入
14:02 - 14:07
EN: If you’re not sure whether you should be only buying
ZH: 如果你看到这样的K线图，不确定此时是否只能做多
14:05 - 14:07
EN: and see a chart like this, simple.
ZH: 如果你看到这样的K线图，不确定此时是否只能做多
14:07 - 14:11
EN: Look at the next higher timeframe – 15-minute, 30-minute, 60-minute chart.
ZH: 很简单，只需要看一下更高的时间周期——15分钟、30分钟、60分钟
14:11 - 14:14
EN: And if it’s a Micro Channel or a very Tight Channel
ZH: 如果（在更高的周期）是一个微通道或窄通道，
14:14 - 14:19
EN: on the next higher timeframe, on your timeframe, a 5-minute chart, only buy.
ZH: 那么在5分钟的周期，就只能做多
14:19 - 14:22
EN: It doesn’t matter that we have a lot of bear bars and reversals.
ZH: 尽管有那么多阴线和反转的尝试
14:22 - 14:24
EN: The pullbacks are really small,
ZH: 这些回调的幅度太小了
14:24 - 14:26
EN: and that makes it very difficult to make money selling.
ZH: 所以做空很难赚到钱
Slide 009
Time: 14:30
Bilingual Transcript
14:33 - 14:34
EN: This can be confusing.
ZH: 这样的行情会让人困惑
14:34 - 14:38
EN: We have a breakout here, and then once you start getting pullbacks,
ZH: 突破之后，一旦开始回调，市场就进入了通道
14:37 - 14:38
EN: you’re in a channel.
ZH: 突破之后，一旦开始回调，市场就进入了通道
14:38 - 14:40
EN: And when you have a lot of pullbacks like this,
ZH: 当你看到这么多回调，
14:40 - 14:44
EN: frequent pullbacks and lots of bear bars, it can be confusing.
ZH: 频繁的回调，有很多阴线，可能会让人感到困惑
14:44 - 14:47
EN: You see the market going up, you see all these bear bars
ZH: 你看到虽然市场在上涨，但是有这么多阴线
14:47 - 14:50
EN: and all these reversals, and you think, “Oh, it’s a bull leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 有这么多反转，你会认为： “哦！这是震荡区间中的上涨波段！
14:50 - 14:54
EN: Maybe I should start selling.” But when you look at the size of the pullbacks,
ZH: 也许我应该开始做空。” 但仔细看一看这些回调的大小，
14:54 - 14:58
EN: especially starting in here, they’re too small to make money.
ZH: 特别是从这里开始，回调太小了，做空赚不到钱
15:07 - 15:12
EN: The pullbacks mean that the trend is not as strong as during the breakout phase.
ZH: 回调意味着趋势不如突破阶段那么强
15:13 - 15:18
EN: However, that does not mean that you can necessarily
ZH: 然而，这不代表你可以通过逆势交易赚钱
15:16 - 15:18
EN: make money trading against the trend.
ZH: 然而，这不代表你可以通过逆势交易赚钱
15:18 - 15:21
EN: It’s still a strong trend, but it’s subtle.
ZH: 它仍然是上涨趋势，但很微妙
15:21 - 15:25
EN: All the reversals and all the bear bars make it look weak,
ZH: 所有的这些反转和阴线，让它看起来很弱
15:25 - 15:29
EN: but the pullbacks are small and they’re only lasting a bar or two or three,
ZH: 但回调幅度很小，而且只持续一两根K线
15:29 - 15:31
EN: and the market keeps working higher.
ZH: 市场一直上涨创新高
15:31 - 15:34
EN: And as I said, you can always look at the next higher timeframe,
ZH: 正如之前所说，（如果困惑）总是可以看一看更高的时间周期
15:34 - 15:42
EN: or a 30-minute or a 60-minute chart, to get reassurance that the trend
ZH: 比如30分钟或60分钟图，就能消除疑虑， 因为你发现趋势实际上比看起来要强得多
15:39 - 15:42
EN: actually is much stronger than what it appears to be on this timeframe.
ZH: 比如30分钟或60分钟图，就能消除疑虑， 因为你发现趋势实际上比看起来要强得多
15:43 - 15:47
EN: And if you’re taking trades, you always have to use the correct stop,
ZH: 如果要开仓交易，你必须设置正确的止损
15:47 - 15:51
EN: and it’s often much further below than what you want it to be.
ZH: 而正确的止损总是比你期望的要更远
15:51 - 15:56
EN: If you cannot use the appropriate stop, then it’s okay not to trade.
ZH: 如果你不能接受这样的止损，可以先不开仓
15:56 - 16:01
EN: Wait for the market to allow you to use the kind of stop
ZH: 等到有止损能够接受的机会再交易
15:59 - 16:01
EN: that you’re comfortable using.
ZH: 等到有止损能够接受的机会再交易
Slide 010
Time: 16:03
Bilingual Transcript
16:05 - 16:08
EN: I mentioned that you can have a bull trend
ZH: 刚才讲到，有的上涨趋势中，
16:08 - 16:12
EN: that has a Tight Bear Channel lasting a few bars.
ZH: 可能有持续几根K线的窄下降通道
16:12 - 16:17
EN: If it lasts 10 or 20 bars, the probability of a bear breakout
ZH: 如果（窄下降通道）持续10~20根K线， 加速向下跌破的概率就增加了
16:15 - 16:17
EN: below the bear channel increases.
ZH: 如果（窄下降通道）持续10~20根K线， 加速向下跌破的概率就增加了
16:18 - 16:21
EN: If there is a strong breakout and strong follow-through,
ZH: 如果空头制造了强势的跌破和跟随
16:21 - 16:23
EN: it can lead to a trend reversal.
ZH: 就可以导致趋势反转
Slide 011
Time: 16:24
Bilingual Transcript
16:26 - 16:31
EN: Here we have a fairly Tight Bull Channel lasting about 40 or 50 bars.
ZH: 这是一个比较窄的上涨通道，持续了40~50根K线
16:36 - 16:39
EN: The market’s going sideways here in a Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 这里市场横盘，是一个窄震荡区间
16:39 - 16:43
EN: Remember, a Tight Trading Range is a Tight Channel that’s horizontal.
ZH: 窄震荡区间其实就是横向的窄通道
16:43 - 16:47
EN: Here’s the Tight Channel lasting about 6 bars and going down.
ZH: 这个窄下降通道持续了6根K线
16:47 - 16:51
EN: So it’s a small bear channel, a small bear trend,
ZH: 所以只是一个小的下降通道，小的回调
16:51 - 16:54
EN: that became a bull flag and the market resumed up.
ZH: 变成牛旗，然后市场恢复上涨
16:57 - 17:05
EN: Because whenever the market’s in a bull trend, the odds are reversals will fail
ZH: 因为每当市场处于上涨趋势时，反转的尝试很大概率会失败， 然后上涨趋势继续，所以交易者会在恢复上涨时买入
17:02 - 17:05
EN: and the bull trend will resume, traders will look to buy a reversal up.
ZH: 因为每当市场处于上涨趋势时，反转的尝试很大概率会失败， 然后上涨趋势继续，所以交易者会在恢复上涨时买入
17:06 - 17:08
EN: You can call this a Tight Trading Range or a Triangle.
ZH: 你可以把它看做是窄震荡区间，或者三角形
17:08 - 17:11
EN: Traders will buy a reversal up above a bull bar.
ZH: 交易者会在阳线上方买入做多
17:11 - 17:14
EN: And here, we have a bear trend only lasting 6 bars
ZH: 这里，下降趋势只持续了6根K线
17:14 - 17:18
EN: - I would not call it a bear trend; I would call it a small Tight Bear Channel
ZH: ——我不会称之为下降趋势，我会说它是一个小的窄下降通道
17:18 - 17:20
EN: - and it was a bull flag.
ZH: ——而它是一个牛旗
17:20 - 17:22
EN: It evolved into a Triangle or a Trading Range,
ZH: 它演变成三角形，或震荡区间
17:22 - 17:26
EN: and traders will look to buy a reversal up, especially above a bull bar.
ZH: 交易者会在恢复上涨时买入，尤其是在阳线上方入场
17:26 - 17:29
EN: They’ll buy on a stop above this bull bar and get filled here.
ZH: 他们会在这个阳线上方挂突破买单，在这里成交
17:29 - 17:33
EN: We have a couple bull bars here, a second entry – first entry, second entry,
ZH: 这里有两三根阳线，第2入场点——第1，第2
17:33 - 17:36
EN: bull bar – they’ll buy here, or they’ll buy above this bar as well.
ZH: ——他们会在这里买入，也会在这根K线上方买入
17:42 - 17:45
EN: What’s different about this bear channel?
ZH: 这个下降通道和之前的有什么区别？
17:45 - 17:48
EN: It’s a Tight Bear Channel like this one, but there’re a couple differences.
ZH: 它和之前这个一样都是窄下降通道，但有几个不同之处
17:48 - 17:52
EN: First of all it lasted 10 or 15 bars, and then next,
ZH: 首先，它持续了十几根K线
17:52 - 17:57
EN: it has 7 bars here without a bull body and it has 4 bars with bear bodies.
ZH: 连续7根都不是阳线，其中4根是阴线
17:57 - 18:00
EN: When traders start to see signs of Selling Pressure,
ZH: 当交易者开始看到卖压，
18:01 - 18:05
EN: especially if there is also a Buy Climax, they begin to wonder
ZH: 尤其左边还是抢购高潮，他们会开始怀疑
18:05 - 18:12
EN: if the bull trend has ended and the market is transitioning
ZH: 上涨趋势是否已经结束，市场是否正在转变成震荡区间、甚至下降趋势
18:08 - 18:12
EN: into a Trading Range or possibly even into a bear trend.
ZH: 上涨趋势是否已经结束，市场是否正在转变成震荡区间、甚至下降趋势
18:16 - 18:24
EN: Again, traders are much more willing to believe the bears are taking control
ZH: 再讲一遍，如果左边看上去像是抢购高潮， 交易者会更愿意相信空头开始掌控市场
18:22 - 18:24
EN: if there’s some kind of a Buy Climax.
ZH: 再讲一遍，如果左边看上去像是抢购高潮， 交易者会更愿意相信空头开始掌控市场
18:24 - 18:27
EN: And there are different ways to draw a Parabolic Wedge Top here
ZH: 这里有好几个抛物线楔形顶
18:27 - 18:30
EN: - you could say one, pullback, two, pullback, three.
ZH: ——比如1，回调；2，回调；3
18:31 - 18:35
EN: Or one, two, three or one, two, three.
ZH: 或者1，2，3；还有1，2，3
18:35 - 18:40
EN: We have a series of Buy Climaxes – here, pause, here, pause, here.
ZH: 有一系列的抢购高潮——高潮，暂停；高潮，暂停；高潮
18:40 - 18:44
EN: Remember, every bull trend bar is a breakout and a Buy Climax.
ZH: 每根较大的阳线都是一次突破和一次抢购高潮
18:44 - 18:54
EN: Because it’s a Parabolic Wedge, this is a Triangle late in a bull trend,
ZH: 由于它是抛物线楔形，所以这个上涨趋势后期的三角形可能是末端牛旗 ——交易者会寻找潜在的反转机会
18:48 - 18:54
EN: possibly the final bull flag – traders will be looking for a possible reversal.
ZH: 由于它是抛物线楔形，所以这个上涨趋势后期的三角形可能是末端牛旗 ——交易者会寻找潜在的反转机会
18:55 - 19:00
EN: Once they start to see 3 or 4 bear bars and no bull bars, they start to wonder
ZH: 一旦他们看到连续三四根阴线、没有阳线，他们就会怀疑
19:00 - 19:05
EN: if this is the beginning of a bigger pullback or possibly even a bear trend.
ZH: 是不是大的回调要来了，甚至可能反转成为下降趋势
19:10 - 19:13
EN: Here we have 3 consecutive bear bars closing on their lows,
ZH: 这里有连续3根阴线收在最低
19:13 - 19:16
EN: and the bear bodies are getting bigger.
ZH: 阴线的体积在不断变大
19:16 - 19:20
EN: This is a bear breakout, and the bulls are giving up.
ZH: 空头突破，多头正在放弃
19:20 - 19:23
EN: The bulls tried to resume the trend.
ZH: 之前多头尝试让上涨趋势恢复
19:23 - 19:27
EN: They have a breakout above the bull flag,
ZH: 他们突破了牛旗——这个下降通道， 但市场再次反转下跌
19:25 - 19:27
EN: the bear channel, and it’s reversing down.
ZH: 他们突破了牛旗——这个下降通道， 但市场再次反转下跌
19:27 - 19:32
EN: You can call it a Double Top here or a Double Top here.
ZH: 你可以说这是一个双顶，或者它们是双顶
19:32 - 19:36
EN: In any case, it’s a failure and the market’s reversing down.
ZH: 总之，趋势恢复失败，市场正在反转下跌
19:36 - 19:38
EN: At this point the market’s Always In Short.
ZH: 在这个时候，市场已经进入单边下跌
19:38 - 19:44
EN: 3 consecutive bear bars, each getting bigger, a big bear bar closing
ZH: 连续3根阴线，体积越来越大， 这根大阴线跌破了过去20根K线的最低点
19:42 - 19:44
EN: below the low of the past 20 bars or so,
ZH: 连续3根阴线，体积越来越大， 这根大阴线跌破了过去20根K线的最低点
19:45 - 19:50
EN: and we got a failed bull breakout above a protracted bear channel.
ZH: 多头尝试突破这个长下降通道，失败
19:50 - 19:52
EN: Traders will sell the close, they’ll sell reversals up,
ZH: 交易者会在它的收盘卖出，会在反弹时卖出
19:52 - 19:56
EN: they’ll sell reversals down, betting that this is a bear flag.
ZH: 他们会在恢复下跌时卖出，押注这是一个熊旗
19:58 - 20:00
EN: If this had gone on 20 or 30 bars,
ZH: 如果这个下降通道持续20~30根K线
20:01 - 20:05
EN: the probability of a bear breakout becomes close to 50/50.
ZH: 空头突破的概率就接近50%了
20:05 - 20:08
EN: When it only goes on 10 or 15 bars like this,
ZH: 如果是像这里持续十几根K线
20:08 - 20:12
EN: there’s maybe a 40% chance of a bear breakout – which we did get here.
ZH: 那么空头突破的概率是40%——确实向下跌破了
20:17 - 20:22
EN: I talk more about these concepts in the videos
ZH: 在窄通道和微通道的章节中，我更详细地讲解了这些概念——
20:20 - 20:22
EN: on Tight Channels and Micro Channels,
ZH: 在窄通道和微通道的章节中，我更详细地讲解了这些概念——
20:22 - 20:26
EN: pullbacks and bar counting, and Major Trend Reversals.
ZH: 回调、数K线、以及大反转
20:27 - 20:32
EN: Sometimes when you have either a bear channel, a Tight Bear Channel,
ZH: 有时候，在这样的窄下降通道之后
20:32 - 20:36
EN: or a Tight Trading Range – which is a horizontal type bear channel
ZH: 或者在窄震荡区间——也就是水平的窄通道——之后，
20:36 - 20:38
EN: - you can get a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 可能会发生大反转
20:38 - 20:41
EN: You can get a Double Top within it, and it can lead to a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 其中可能会出现双顶的结构，然后导致大反转
Slide 012
Time: 20:45
Bilingual Transcript
20:46 - 20:50
EN: Sometimes you’ll get a Tight Bull Channel in a bear trend, and it’s a bear flag.
ZH: 有时候下降趋势中会出现窄上涨通道，它大概率是熊旗
20:55 - 21:05
EN: Here we have a very strong bear trend, and now we’re starting
ZH: 这里有一个很强的下降趋势，现在开始反转上涨—— 9根K线的上涨微通道——窄上涨通道
20:59 - 21:05
EN: to reverse up and we have maybe – whatever that is,
ZH: 这里有一个很强的下降趋势，现在开始反转上涨—— 9根K线的上涨微通道——窄上涨通道
21:02 - 21:05
EN: a 9 bar bull Micro Channel, a Tight Bull Channel.
ZH: 这里有一个很强的下降趋势，现在开始反转上涨—— 9根K线的上涨微通道——窄上涨通道
21:05 - 21:07
EN: And that’s a sign of strong bulls.
ZH: 这是多头强势的信号
21:07 - 21:10
EN: However, it’s still the first reversal up in a strong bear trend,
ZH: 然而，它只是强下降趋势的第1次反转
21:11 - 21:12
EN: and therefore it’s a minor reversal.
ZH: 所以只是小反转
21:12 - 21:16
EN: It’s enough strength so that the bulls will probably get a second leg up
ZH: 但是它足够强势，所以在下降趋势恢复之后， 大概率会有第2段上涨
21:16 - 21:22
EN: after a resumption of the bear trend, but it’s not enough to be thinking
ZH: 但此时还不能说已经开始进入上涨趋势
21:21 - 21:22
EN: about the start of a bull trend.
ZH: 但此时还不能说已经开始进入上涨趋势
21:22 - 21:28
EN: It’s strong enough buying so that if the bear trend resumes,
ZH: 反弹足够强，所以在下降趋势恢复之后， 多头也许能制造大反转
21:26 - 21:28
EN: the bulls might be able to get a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 反弹足够强，所以在下降趋势恢复之后， 多头也许能制造大反转
21:28 - 21:32
EN: Here they got a Double Bottom Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 这里形成了低点抬高的双底大反转结构
21:37 - 21:41
EN: Usually, even with this strong reversal up, it’s a minor reversal.
ZH: 通常，即使是这样强势的反转上涨，也只是小反转
21:41 - 21:43
EN: The best the bulls will get is a Trading Range.
ZH: 多头能得到的最好情况是震荡区间
21:43 - 21:52
EN: However, once it forms a Trading Range, the bulls will have some kind
ZH: 然而，在形成震荡区间之后，会出现某种大反转的结构—— 比如这个案例中，是低点抬高的双底大反转
21:48 - 21:52
EN: of a Major Trend Reversal setup – in this case, a Double Bottom Higher Low.
ZH: 然而，在形成震荡区间之后，会出现某种大反转的结构—— 比如这个案例中，是低点抬高的双底大反转
21:52 - 21:55
EN: This is not a very good Higher Low Major Trend Reversal
ZH: 这不是一个很好的大反转结构
21:55 - 21:57
EN: because this bear channel is tight.
ZH: 因为左边的下降通道太窄了
21:57 - 22:00
EN: The bulls usually need a Double Bottom, which they got here.
ZH: 多头至少需要一个双底，比如像这里
22:00 - 22:03
EN: This is a higher probability Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 这种大反转结构的成功率更高
22:03 - 22:06
EN: It’s a Higher Low, and the Higher Low forms a Double Bottom,
ZH: 低点抬高之后，形成了一个双底结构
22:06 - 22:11
EN: so a Double Bottom Higher Low Major Trend Reversal
ZH: 在第一次强势反弹之后，形成了低点抬高的双底大反转结构
22:08 - 22:11
EN: after a decent minor reversal up here.
ZH: 在第一次强势反弹之后，形成了低点抬高的双底大反转结构
22:18 - 22:20
EN: A Double Bottom, and the Double Bottom is a Higher Low,
ZH: 双底，而且这个双底高于前期的低点，
22:20 - 22:24
EN: so it’s a Double Bottom Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 所以称之为低点抬高的双底大反转
22:24 - 22:28
EN: Is the market still Always In Short here? Yeah, even with this,
ZH: 在这里，市场是否仍然处于下降趋势？ 是的，即使有这样的反弹，
22:28 - 22:30
EN: the bulls have not done enough to make it Always In Long.
ZH: 多头的努力还不足以让市场进入上涨趋势
22:30 - 22:34
EN: And even with this, still Always In Short, and even with this, Always In Short.
ZH: 即使到了这里，仍然是下降趋势； 到了这里，还是下降趋势
22:34 - 22:37
EN: We’re still in a Trading Range in a bear trend.
ZH: 这是下降趋势中的震荡区间
22:37 - 22:44
EN: You have about a 50% chance that the Double Top Lower High will result
ZH: 有50%的概率，这个双顶熊旗会向下跌破颈线， 并继续跌到MM目标位
22:41 - 22:44
EN: in a break below the neckline and a Measured Move down.
ZH: 有50%的概率，这个双顶熊旗会向下跌破颈线， 并继续跌到MM目标位
22:44 - 22:50
EN: Here, it’s closer to 50/50, but it’s still Always In Short
ZH: 这里多空双方的概率接近50对50， 但市场仍然处于下降趋势，直到市场真正开始反转上涨
22:48 - 22:50
EN: until the market starts to reverse up.
ZH: 这里多空双方的概率接近50对50， 但市场仍然处于下降趋势，直到市场真正开始反转上涨
22:50 - 22:53
EN: It probably went Always In Long here or here.
ZH: 在这里和这里，可以说市场已经进入单边上涨
22:53 - 22:56
EN: At this point, this breakout above the top of the Trading Range,
ZH: 在这个时候，价格突破了震荡区间的上沿，
22:56 - 22:59
EN: the odds shifted in favor of the bulls.
ZH: 多头开始获得概率上的优势
22:59 - 23:01
EN: Chances are the market will go higher.
ZH: 很可能还会继续上涨
23:06 - 23:10
EN: Strong bull breakout and follow-through, the market’s Always In Long.
ZH: 强势的大阳线突破，有跟随，此时已经是单边上涨
23:11 - 23:13
EN: However, it’s also the end of the day
ZH: 然而，市场即将收盘
23:13 - 23:16
EN: and there’s not much time left for a swing up.
ZH: 所以没有形成大波段的时间了
23:16 - 23:20
EN: It’s strong enough so that the odds favor at least a small second leg up.
ZH: 但它足够强势，所以大概率至少会有小的第2段上涨
Slide 013
Time: 23:23
Bilingual Transcript
23:28 - 23:29
EN: Reversal up.
ZH: 反转上涨
23:29 - 23:31
EN: Lower Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 低点降低的大反转
23:32 - 23:35
EN: We have a Double Bottom, a failed breakout below, another reversal up,
ZH: 小双底，向下跌破失败，才反转上涨
23:35 - 23:38
EN: another bull bar, and then a strong breakout here
ZH: 大阳线，更大的强势突破
23:38 - 23:40
EN: to a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 然后是低点抬高的大反转
23:40 - 23:42
EN: Probably going higher.
ZH: 大概率会继续上涨
23:45 - 23:47
EN: Strong bull breakout, Always In Long.
ZH: 强势的多头突破，只做多
23:47 - 23:48
EN: You could buy for any reason.
ZH: 你可以用任何方式买入
23:48 - 23:51
EN: You could buy the close of that bar, below this bear bar,
ZH: 你可以在它的收盘买入，可以在这根阴线下方买入，
23:51 - 23:55
EN: or on the reversal up from the break below the Buy Climax.
ZH: 或者在深度回调、恢复上涨时买入
23:55 - 24:01
EN: A decent looking buy signal bar, a test of this buy signal bar high,
ZH: 下跌回测了之前这个做多信号K线的最高点， 它本身也是不错的做多信号K线
23:59 - 24:01
EN: and a good-looking bull bar.
ZH: 下跌回测了之前这个做多信号K线的最高点， 它本身也是不错的做多信号K线
24:04 - 24:07
EN: And now we have another breakout and then a pullback,
ZH: 又一根大阳线，然后回调
24:07 - 24:08
EN: and now we’re starting to channel up.
ZH: 市场开始进入上涨通道
24:08 - 24:12
EN: Little pullbacks along the way, but the channel is tight.
ZH: 途中一直有小的回调，但通道很窄
24:12 - 24:13
EN: The pullbacks are small.
ZH: 回调幅度很小
24:13 - 24:14
EN: 1 bar pullback.
ZH: 一根K线
24:14 - 24:17
EN: This pullback didn’t even go below the low of the prior bar.
ZH: 而这里的回调甚至都没能跌破前一根K线的低点
24:17 - 24:19
EN: 1 bar pullback again.
ZH: 又是只回调了一根K线
24:19 - 24:22
EN: It’s starting to become a very Tight Bull Channel.
ZH: 市场开始进入一个非常窄的上涨通道
Slide 014
Time: 24:25
Bilingual Transcript
24:32 - 24:39
EN: Sometimes you look at a channel and you’re not sure,
ZH: 有时候你看到一个通道，但不确定它是窄还是宽。 比如这个上涨通道
24:34 - 24:39
EN: is this broad or is this tight? We have a bull channel here.
ZH: 有时候你看到一个通道，但不确定它是窄还是宽。 比如这个上涨通道
24:39 - 24:44
EN: If you cannot decide, then assume it’s tight
ZH: 如果无法判断，那就假设它是窄通道， 然后只顺着趋势的方向交易
24:42 - 24:44
EN: and only trade in the direction of the trend.
ZH: 如果无法判断，那就假设它是窄通道， 然后只顺着趋势的方向交易
24:44 - 24:48
EN: Remember, if it’s broad, if it’s a Broad Bull Channel, you can buy and sell.
ZH: 如果是宽通道，做多和做空都能赚钱
24:48 - 24:51
EN: But you certainly can buy because it’s a bull trend.
ZH: 做多显然是可以的，因为这是一个上涨趋势
24:51 - 24:54
EN: And if it’s a Tight Bull Channel, you can only buy.
ZH: 如果是窄通道，那就只能做多
24:54 - 25:00
EN: And therefore, whether it’s a Tight Channel
ZH: 因此，无论它是窄是宽，买入做多是不会错的
24:57 - 25:00
EN: or a Broad Channel, you cannot go wrong only buying.
ZH: 因此，无论它是窄是宽，买入做多是不会错的
25:06 - 25:08
EN: Here we got a strong bear reversal, but look at the follow-through.
ZH: 这里有一根大阴线，但是没有跟随 （注：大K线都是突破，而突破需要跟随）
25:08 - 25:11
EN: Strong bear reversal, look at the follow-through.
ZH: 大阴线，也没有跟随
25:11 - 25:16
EN: It’s a Higher Low and a bull bar, Higher Low
ZH: 低点抬高，阳线； 低点继续抬高，大约是50%回调，阳线
25:13 - 25:16
EN: and a bull bar, around a 50% pullback.
ZH: 低点抬高，阳线； 低点继续抬高，大约是50%回调，阳线
25:16 - 25:22
EN: It’s probably not worth shorting because the pullbacks
ZH: 这不是好的做空机会，因为回调幅度不够深， 连（用限价卖单）剥头皮都不太够
25:20 - 25:22
EN: are really not quite deep enough for a scalp.
ZH: 这不是好的做空机会，因为回调幅度不够深， 连（用限价卖单）剥头皮都不太够
25:22 - 25:24
EN: Certainly with a stop entry it’s difficult.
ZH: 那么用突破卖单入场做空更难赚到钱
25:24 - 25:26
EN: Do you really want to be selling with a stop here?
ZH: 你真的想在这里用突破单开仓做空吗？
25:26 - 25:29
EN: You can argue second failed breakout above this high,
ZH: 尽管它是创新高之后的第2次反转下跌
25:29 - 25:33
EN: Expanding Triangle, one, two, three, but very strong rally.
ZH: 扩张三角形——1，2，3；但上涨非常强势
25:33 - 25:36
EN: Probably a 50% pullback and a resumption of the bull trend.
ZH: 大概率在50%回调之后，上涨趋势会恢复
25:37 - 25:40
EN: It’s better to be looking to buy the failed bear breakout,
ZH: 等空头突破失败时买入做多会更好
25:40 - 25:46
EN: buying on a stop above here, or buy with a limit order
ZH: 比如在它的上方买入， 或者在这段上涨的50%回调处挂限价买单
25:43 - 25:46
EN: around a 50% pullback from this rally.
ZH: 比如在它的上方买入， 或者在这段上涨的50%回调处挂限价买单
25:46 - 25:47
EN: And the same is true here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
25:47 - 25:50
EN: You stand to make more money buying above this bull bar
ZH: 在这根阳线上方买入更有机会赚到钱
25:50 - 25:53
EN: than you do selling that bear close.
ZH: 而不是在大阴线的收盘做空
25:53 - 25:57
EN: In fact, when you see a bear close like this,
ZH: 当看到这样的大阴线时，要知道：空头需要好的跟随
25:56 - 25:57
EN: you know the bears need follow-through.
ZH: 当看到这样的大阴线时，要知道：空头需要好的跟随
25:57 - 26:02
EN: A lot of bulls will buy that close and put a stop down here,
ZH: 很多多头会在它的收盘买入，然后把初始止损放在这里
26:02 - 26:06
EN: and then if the bears get a second consecutive bar,
ZH: 如果空头得到了跟随的阴线，他们就会提前止损离场
26:04 - 26:06
EN: they’ll exit and take a loss.
ZH: 如果空头得到了跟随的阴线，他们就会提前止损离场
26:06 - 26:11
EN: But they know the probability is the market
ZH: 他们知道，市场大概率仍然处于上涨趋势，还会继续上涨
26:09 - 26:11
EN: is still Always In Long and going higher.
ZH: 他们知道，市场大概率仍然处于上涨趋势，还会继续上涨
26:15 - 26:17
EN: The easiest thing: buy a reversal up.
ZH: 最简单的做法：在反转上涨时买入
26:17 - 26:23
EN: You see a bull bar after the bear breakout, buy a reversal up
ZH: 在大阴线之后，出现了反转的阳线—— 挂突破单买入，押注低点和高点会继续不断抬高
26:20 - 26:23
EN: and bet that the market will continue to form Higher Lows.
ZH: 在大阴线之后，出现了反转的阳线—— 挂突破单买入，押注低点和高点会继续不断抬高
26:23 - 26:27
EN: Every time the market reverses, expect the reversal to fail,
ZH: 每次市场下跌的时候，都预期反转会失败
26:27 - 26:30
EN: look for a bull bar, and buy above the high of the bull bar.
ZH: 然后等待阳线（做多信号K），在它的高点上方挂突破买单
26:30 - 26:34
EN: Remember, if you’re an always in bull and you get out for any reason
ZH: 如果你是趋势交易者，但出于某个原因提前离场了
26:34 - 26:37
EN: - let’s say you get out on the close of this bear bar
ZH: 假设你在这个阴线的收盘离场了
26:37 - 26:43
EN: - if you’re going to be trading always in, if you’re going to stay in the market
ZH: 如果你按照“总在场内”的方式交易—— 你想在趋势的大部分时间都始终持有仓位，
26:40 - 26:43
EN: for most of the bars of the day and you just got out,
ZH: 如果你按照“总在场内”的方式交易—— 你想在趋势的大部分时间都始终持有仓位，
26:43 - 26:46
EN: and the market’s still Always In Long, even with that bear bar,
ZH: 即使有这根阴线，此时市场仍然是上涨趋势，
26:46 - 26:48
EN: you’ve got to buy again above a bull bar.
ZH: 所以你就必须在阳线的上方再次买入
26:48 - 26:54
EN: And that’s why buying above a bull bar,
ZH: 因此在上涨趋势中，不论你是不是“总在场内”交易者， 在阳线上方买入永远都是一个好的方法
26:50 - 26:54
EN: whether or not you’re trading Always In Long, is a good idea in a bull trend.
ZH: 因此在上涨趋势中，不论你是不是“总在场内”交易者， 在阳线上方买入永远都是一个好的方法
26:54 - 26:56
EN: Every reversal, when you see a bull bar,
ZH: 每次回调之后，当你看到阳线
26:56 - 26:58
EN: buy above it and use the appropriate stop.
ZH: 就在它的上方买入，并设置合理的止损
27:03 - 27:06
EN: Any time a market starts having very small pullbacks,
ZH: 如果回调非常小（注：幅度小，或持续时间短）
27:06 - 27:08
EN: you know the channel is tight.
ZH: 你就知道是窄通道
27:09 - 27:13
EN: So, 1 bar pullback, 2 bar pullback, and the pullbacks are small.
ZH: 比如，只回调了一根K线，两根K线，而且幅度不大
27:13 - 27:14
EN: They’re not falling a lot of points.
ZH: 没有大幅的下跌
27:15 - 27:18
EN: Therefore the channel is tight and you should only be trading
ZH: 所以这是窄通道，你只能顺着趋势的方向交易
27:17 - 27:18
EN: in the direction of the trend.
ZH: 所以这是窄通道，你只能顺着趋势的方向交易
27:23 - 27:25
EN: Some pullbacks, like this, are fairly deep.
ZH: 有些回调，像这种，是比较深的
27:26 - 27:29
EN: Because they’re deep, by definition they’re not small,
ZH: 所以根据定义，它们不再是小回调
27:29 - 27:33
EN: and therefore the market’s not a Small Pullback Bull Trend here.
ZH: 这不是一个回调很小的上涨趋势
27:33 - 27:38
EN: It’s still a fairly Tight Bull Channel and very difficult to make money selling.
ZH: 但这仍然是一个窄通道，很难通过做空赚钱 （注：因为持续时间太短，大阴线之后没有跟随，没有下跌的波段机会）
27:38 - 27:41
EN: Here, it’s becoming a Small Pullback Bull Trend.
ZH: 到了这里，开始进入回调很小的上涨趋势
27:42 - 27:43
EN: Traders should not be selling.
ZH: 不应该做空
27:44 - 27:48
EN: Some traders, when they see this Trading Range, they might sell at this high,
ZH: 一些交易者，当他们看到这个震荡区间时， 他们可能会在这个高点挂单做空
27:48 - 27:50
EN: sell more higher, and look for a scalp.
ZH: 然后在上方加仓，想要剥头皮
27:50 - 27:57
EN: But if you’re not sure if the channel is broad enough to take the shorts,
ZH: 但是如果你不确定通道是否足够宽， 不确定用限价卖单做空并逢高加仓的做法是否能赚钱
27:54 - 27:57
EN: the limit order shorts selling at prior highs,
ZH: 但是如果你不确定通道是否足够宽， 不确定用限价卖单做空并逢高加仓的做法是否能赚钱
27:56 - 27:58
EN: scaling in higher, only look to buy.
ZH: 但是如果你不确定通道是否足够宽， 不确定用限价卖单做空并逢高加仓的做法是否能赚钱 那就只考虑买入做多
27:58 - 28:01
EN: In general whenever you see a bull channel,
ZH: 通常来说，只要你看到上涨通道
28:01 - 28:05
EN: if it’s not clearly very broad, only look to buy.
ZH: 如果不是很明显的宽通道，那就只做多、不做空
28:05 - 28:07
EN: Buy the pullbacks as they reverse up.
ZH: 回调之后，在恢复上涨时买入
Slide 015
Time: 28:10
Bilingual Transcript
28:15 - 28:19
EN: Another thing is you can use your feelings as kind of a radar.
ZH: 另外，你可以利用你的情绪，让它成为你的雷达
28:19 - 28:23
EN: Whenever you look at a chart and you’re feeling agitated and you’re desperate,
ZH: 你看着眼前的行情，如果感到焦虑和急切
28:23 - 28:26
EN: hoping for a deeper pullback that will allow you to buy,
ZH: 非常希望市场有一个深度回调，给你买入的机会
28:27 - 28:31
EN: then you know the market’s going higher, and you should buy at the market.
ZH: 那么你就知道市场还会继续上涨，所以别等了
28:31 - 28:33
EN: Just buy at the market.
ZH: 直接市价买入
28:33 - 28:35
EN: Trade small and use the appropriate stop.
ZH: 用很小的仓位，设置正确的止损
28:41 - 28:44
EN: The correct stops are usually fairly obvious.
ZH: 止损位通常都是很明确的
28:44 - 28:46
EN: If you bought anywhere in here, where’s your stop?
ZH: 如果你在这里的某个地方买入，止损应该放在哪里？
28:47 - 28:50
EN: Clearly below the bottom of this strong bull reversal.
ZH: 显然在这个强势反转的起涨点下方
28:50 - 28:51
EN: So stop is here.
ZH: 止损放在这里
28:51 - 28:54
EN: Doesn’t matter if you bought here, doesn’t matter if you bought here.
ZH: 不管你在这里买入，还是在这里买入
28:54 - 28:56
EN: That is your stop.
ZH: 初始止损都在那里
28:57 - 28:59
EN: And if you look at this and then you look at this,
ZH: 当你看到这里和这里的价格行为，
28:59 - 29:02
EN: thinking, “Oh, the bears are not doing much to reverse this.
ZH: 你心想：“额，空头不太行，无法反转上涨趋势
29:02 - 29:08
EN: I think it’s going higher, but gosh,
ZH: 感觉还会继续涨… 但看上去也没强势到非买不可” 既然你认为市场会上涨
29:04 - 29:08
EN: that doesn’t look strong enough to buy,” right? You think it’s going higher.
ZH: 感觉还会继续涨… 但看上去也没强势到非买不可” 既然你认为市场会上涨
29:08 - 29:10
EN: That means you’re at least 60% certain.
ZH: 说明你至少有60%的把握
29:10 - 29:12
EN: That means you have to buy.
ZH: 这意味着你必须买入
29:12 - 29:16
EN: You buy above a bull bar, buy above a bull bar, use the appropriate stop,
ZH: 你在这根阳线，或者这根阳线上方买入，然后设置好正确的止损
29:16 - 29:18
EN: and go for a walk and come back in an hour.
ZH: 出门散散步，过一个小时再回来
29:20 - 29:23
EN: A lot of times there are other alternatives for stops.
ZH: 很多时候，有其它的止损选择
29:23 - 29:25
EN: For example, if you buy above this bull bar,
ZH: 假如在这个阳线上方买入，
29:25 - 29:28
EN: do you put a stop here? I would not.
ZH: 可以把止损放在这里吗？我不会这样做
29:28 - 29:31
EN: You can argue it’s a High 2 bull flag after a bull breakout,
ZH: 你可以把它看作是多头突破之后的高2牛旗
29:31 - 29:35
EN: but I would use the deeper stop because we might be in a Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 但我会用更宽的初始止损，因为目前可能正处于震荡区间 （注：回调很多时候都是某种震荡区间）
29:35 - 29:37
EN: We’ve having small sideways bars.
ZH: 开始出现小的横盘K线
29:37 - 29:40
EN: We could get a second leg down – one, pullback, two.
ZH: 完全可能会有第2段回调——1，反弹，2
29:40 - 29:41
EN: Suppose you buy above this bull bar.
ZH: 假设你在这个阳线上方买入
29:41 - 29:43
EN: Can you put your stop below here?
ZH: 可以把止损放在它的下面吗？
29:43 - 29:46
EN: Well, after 3 bear bars, we still might get a second leg down.
ZH: 左边连续3根K线，仍然可能再有一段下跌
29:46 - 29:47
EN: So it’s still too tight.
ZH: 所以这个止损还是太窄了
29:47 - 29:52
EN: Buying above this bull bar, can you put your stop
ZH: 在这个阳线上方买入，可以把止损放在它或它的下面吗？ 我不会
29:50 - 29:52
EN: below its low or here? I would not.
ZH: 在这个阳线上方买入，可以把止损放在它或它的下面吗？ 我不会
29:52 - 29:55
EN: But after these 2 bull bars, that might be enough
ZH: 但是后面两根阳线出来之后，已经足够强势
29:55 - 29:58
EN: so that the market should not get below this low.
ZH: （上涨趋势完好的话）市场不应该跌破这个低点
29:58 - 30:01
EN: If you had a stop here, you could tighten it up to here
ZH: 如果初始止损在这里，可以把它移动上来——
30:01 - 30:04
EN: after you see this bull breakout or after you see this bull breakout.
ZH: 在看到这个突破，或这个突破之后
30:07 - 30:12
EN: Reasonable stops – once the market starts to go up, if you buy above here
ZH: 合理的止损——假设你在这根阳线上方买入
30:13 - 30:16
EN: and you get to this point, you could raise your stop.
ZH: 在这个时候，可以把止损往上移动
30:16 - 30:21
EN: And then once you get a breakout here or here, you can raise your stop
ZH: 当市场再次突破，涨到这里或这里， 可以把止损抬高到最近一个重要低点的下方
30:19 - 30:21
EN: to below the most recent major Higher Low.
ZH: 当市场再次突破，涨到这里或这里， 可以把止损抬高到最近一个重要低点的下方
30:21 - 30:24
EN: Once you break out here or here, you can raise your stop.
ZH: 一旦突破到这里或这里，可以再次抬高止损
30:25 - 30:28
EN: If the market is in a Small Pullback Bull Trend,
ZH: 如果市场处于回调很小的上涨趋势
30:28 - 30:31
EN: it will not have a big enough pullback to hit your stop.
ZH: 就不会出现大的回调打掉止损
30:31 - 30:36
EN: If it does hit your stop, then it’s no longer in a Small Pullback Bull Trend,
ZH: 如果它打掉了你的止损，说明已经不再是回调很小的上涨趋势
30:36 - 30:40
EN: and you don’t want to be holding long,
ZH: 你就不应该再按照这个前提去继续持有了
30:37 - 30:40
EN: trading it like a Small Pullback Bull Trend.
ZH: 你就不应该再按照这个前提去继续持有了
Slide 016
Time: 30:45
Bilingual Transcript
30:48 - 30:51
EN: Again, your feelings can help you trade.
ZH: 再讲一遍，情绪也可以帮助你交易
30:51 - 31:00
EN: If you’re feeling like the market is just forcing you to buy too high
ZH: 如果你感到市场在逼迫你追涨杀跌， 这是市场在告诉你：现在的趋势很强
30:54 - 31:00
EN: in a bull trend or too low – or sell too low in a bear trend,
ZH: 如果你感到市场在逼迫你追涨杀跌， 这是市场在告诉你：现在的趋势很强
30:57 - 31:00
EN: the market’s telling you the trend is strong.
ZH: 如果你感到市场在逼迫你追涨杀跌， 这是市场在告诉你：现在的趋势很强
31:00 - 31:06
EN: If you look at it and you feel like, “Oh my gosh, it’s climactic.
ZH: 如果你对自己说：“天呐，是抢购高潮，随时可能反转。”
31:03 - 31:06
EN: We could get a big reversal at any time,”
ZH: 如果你对自己说：“天呐，是抢购高潮，随时可能反转。”
31:06 - 31:09
EN: what you’re doing is just talking yourself out of an obvious trade.
ZH: 你只不过是在为放弃这么好的交易机会而找借口
31:09 - 31:11
EN: You have to get long.
ZH: 你必须做多
31:11 - 31:12
EN: You know where the stop is.
ZH: 你知道止损在哪里
31:12 - 31:16
EN: If you buy here, the stop is at least here, maybe down here.
ZH: 如果你在这里买入，止损至少在这里，甚至在这里下方
31:16 - 31:18
EN: You have to buy.
ZH: 你必须买入，用小仓位
31:17 - 31:18
EN: Just buy small.
ZH: 你必须买入，用小仓位
31:18 - 31:22
EN: Use the stop, and if you have to, just go take a walk
ZH: 设置好止损，如果实在很难熬，就出门走走
31:22 - 31:23
EN: for a half hour and come back.
ZH: 过半个小时再回来
31:27 - 31:29
EN: Clearly strongly bullish.
ZH: 上涨趋势强劲
31:29 - 31:30
EN: It’s climactic.
ZH: 抢购高潮
31:30 - 31:33
EN: We have a series of Buy Climaxes – here, here, here, here
ZH: 这里有一系列的抢购高潮——这里，这里，这里，这里
31:33 - 31:35
EN: - and we could get a big reversal at any time.
ZH: 随时可能反转下跌
31:36 - 31:38
EN: However, when a channel is tight like this,
ZH: 然而，当通道这么窄，
31:38 - 31:41
EN: it’s a breakout on a higher timeframe chart.
ZH: 在更高的时间周期上，它就是一次突破
31:41 - 31:46
EN: Is the breakout going to go from a strong bull trend into a bear trend? Rarely.
ZH: 这样的突破会突然变成下降趋势吗？很少见
31:46 - 31:50
EN: And therefore, the best the bears will get is a minor reversal
ZH: 因此，空头最多得到一个小反转
31:50 - 31:53
EN: - in other words, a bull flag or maybe a Trading Range.
ZH: ——也就是牛旗，或者震荡区间
31:53 - 31:55
EN: And even if you get a deep pullback in a Trading Range,
ZH: 即使是深度回调、进入震荡区间
31:55 - 32:00
EN: the market will probably come back here, and therefore you can buy at any time.
ZH: 市场大概率还会回到这里，因此可以在任何时候买入
32:00 - 32:04
EN: Use the appropriate stop, knowing that if you manage your trade well,
ZH: 设置好正确的止损，只要管理好这笔交易，
32:04 - 32:08
EN: you should be able to avoid a loss, like 80% chance you can avoid a loss,
ZH: 至少80%的概率可以避免亏损
32:08 - 32:12
EN: and probably 70% chance if you can scale in, you’ll make money.
ZH: 如果能够正确地加仓，70%的概率可以赚钱
32:16 - 32:20
EN: When you have a bunch of alternatives for your stops and you don’t know
ZH: 如果有一堆合理的止损选项，你不知道该如何选择
32:20 - 32:24
EN: which one to use, and you don’t want to use the furthest one,
ZH: 你也不想用最远的止损，那就在当中随便挑一个
32:22 - 32:24
EN: just pick any one in the middle.
ZH: 你也不想用最远的止损，那就在当中随便挑一个
32:24 - 32:27
EN: So if you buy this close and you’re trying to decide,
ZH: 比如你在它的收盘买入，然后纠结：
32:27 - 32:31
EN: “do I use this stop or do I use this stop or this stop?”, just use any of them.
ZH: “我应该把止损放在这里，这里，还是这里？” 随便选一个
32:31 - 32:32
EN: Maybe one in the middle.
ZH: 比如中间这个
32:32 - 32:36
EN: You want to make sure that it’s far enough away
ZH: 止损不应该太近，这样你就不会在一笔好的交易中被轻易地打掉止损
32:34 - 32:36
EN: so that you do not get stopped out of a good trade.
ZH: 止损不应该太近，这样你就不会在一笔好的交易中被轻易地打掉止损
32:39 - 32:42
EN: For example, if you buy this close and you’re not sure
ZH: 比如，假设你在它的收盘买入了，
32:42 - 32:45
EN: if you should put your stop here, the bottom of the Buy Climax
ZH: 但你不确定是否应该把止损放在这里——抢购高潮的起涨点
32:45 - 32:47
EN: - maybe it’ll dip below that and resume up
ZH: ——经常会略微跌破它，然后恢复上涨
32:47 - 32:51
EN: - then just use the next wider stop, here or down here.
ZH: 那就选择一个更宽的止损，比如这里，或这个低点下方
Slide 017
Time: 32:55
Bilingual Transcript
33:00 - 33:04
EN: Even if you get a bear reversal, again, when a channel is tight
ZH: 即使真的开始反转——再次强调，如果通道很窄，
33:04 - 33:07
EN: the market usually has to transition into a Trading Range
ZH: 市场通常需要先进入震荡区间，
33:07 - 33:10
EN: before it’ll become a strong bear trend.
ZH: 然后才变成强下降趋势
33:10 - 33:14
EN: And a Trading Range means if it goes down,
ZH: 而震荡区间意味着：就算下跌，大概率也会涨回来
33:12 - 33:14
EN: the odds are high it’ll go back up again,
ZH: 而震荡区间意味着：就算下跌，大概率也会涨回来
33:14 - 33:17
EN: and you can buy more lower and avoid a loss.
ZH: 所以你可以逢低加仓，至少避免亏损 （注：新手不应该这样做）
33:24 - 33:32
EN: A Tight Channel is a strong trend, and therefore the best the bears
ZH: 窄通道是强趋势，所以接下来的10~20根K线， 空头最多得到一个震荡区间
33:29 - 33:32
EN: probably can get over the next 10 or 20 bars is a Trading Range.
ZH: 窄通道是强趋势，所以接下来的10~20根K线， 空头最多得到一个震荡区间
33:32 - 33:42
EN: They might get a deep pullback, but the pullback will probably be a bear leg
ZH: 即使出现深度回调，大概率也只是震荡区间中的一段下跌， 市场还会涨回到区间的顶部附近，所以多头至少不会亏钱
33:36 - 33:42
EN: in a Trading Range, and the market will probably trade back up
ZH: 即使出现深度回调，大概率也只是震荡区间中的一段下跌， 市场还会涨回到区间的顶部附近，所以多头至少不会亏钱
33:39 - 33:42
EN: to the top of the range, which would allow traders to get out without a loss.
ZH: 即使出现深度回调，大概率也只是震荡区间中的一段下跌， 市场还会涨回到区间的顶部附近，所以多头至少不会亏钱
33:49 - 33:59
EN: Skilled traders will add on lower, and they’re usually able to make a profit
ZH: 有经验的交易员会逢低加仓， 即使遇到深度回调，他们通常也能赚到钱
Slide 018
Time: 33:50
Bilingual Transcript
33:55 - 33:59
EN: even if you do get a deep pullback, a strong reversal attempt.
ZH: 有经验的交易员会逢低加仓， 即使遇到深度回调，他们通常也能赚到钱
34:04 - 34:10
EN: 70% chance the first reversal down will test back up here
ZH: 70%的概率，第1次下跌后，会回测这里， 让多头至少能打平离场
34:08 - 34:10
EN: and allow you to get out breakeven.
ZH: 70%的概率，第1次下跌后，会回测这里， 让多头至少能打平离场
34:10 - 34:16
EN: 80% or 90% chance the first reversal down will bounce at least high enough up
ZH: 80~90%的概率，第1次下跌后，会有足够大的反弹
34:16 - 34:26
EN: so that if you scale in lower, you’ll be able to exit at the midpoint
ZH: 对于逢低加仓的交易者来说，他们至少能够在平均价格离场， 从而避免亏损——总的仓位是打平离场
34:20 - 34:26
EN: between your two entries and avoid a loss on the trade,
ZH: 对于逢低加仓的交易者来说，他们至少能够在平均价格离场， 从而避免亏损——总的仓位是打平离场
34:23 - 34:26
EN: get out breakeven on the entire position.
ZH: 对于逢低加仓的交易者来说，他们至少能够在平均价格离场， 从而避免亏损——总的仓位是打平离场
34:27 - 34:29
EN: Market’s going sideways here.
ZH: 市场开始横盘
34:34 - 34:36
EN: It’s still Always In Long.
ZH: 仍然是上涨趋势
34:37 - 34:40
EN: Probably the best the bears will get is a minor reversal, like this one.
ZH: 空头最多制造一个小反转，比如像这样
34:40 - 34:44
EN: A bull flag, minor reversal, bull flag, minor reversal, bull flag.
ZH: 牛旗；小反转，牛旗；小反转，牛旗
34:44 - 34:47
EN: Tight Trading Range, 10 bars or so.
ZH: 窄震荡区间，已有大约10根K线
34:47 - 34:49
EN: Now the market’s more balanced,
ZH: 现在市场更加平衡
34:52 - 34:55
EN: but it’s still reasonable to rely on your stop.
ZH: 继续依赖止损是合理的
Slide 019
Time: 34:55
Bilingual Transcript
34:55 - 34:57
EN: Working a little bit higher.
ZH: 市场小幅创了新高
35:01 - 35:05
EN: Is that a Higher High Major Trend Reversal? Probably not.
ZH: 会是高点抬高的大反转吗？大概率不是
35:05 - 35:06
EN: Not much Selling Pressure.
ZH: 没有太多的卖压
35:06 - 35:09
EN: We only fell a couple points.
ZH: 之前的跌幅太小了 （注：第1次小反转不够强势）
35:09 - 35:13
EN: Even though two legs, it’s still probably a minor reversal.
ZH: 尽管有两段回调； 接下来大概率还是小反转
35:14 - 35:16
EN: Probably the best the bears will get is a Trading Range.
ZH: 最多变成震荡区间
35:16 - 35:18
EN: We’re getting late in the day,
ZH: 已经临近收盘
35:18 - 35:21
EN: and therefore there’s always a risk of profit-taking.
ZH: 总是存在尾盘止盈（导致下跌）的风险
35:21 - 35:23
EN: And when you have a Small Pullback Bull Trend
ZH: 回调很小的上涨趋势，
35:23 - 35:26
EN: and you’re at the end of the day, a lot of the bulls will take profits,
ZH: 在接近收盘的时候，很多多头会开始止盈
35:26 - 35:31
EN: and sometimes you get a surprisingly sharp selloff at the end of the day.
ZH: 导致有时候在尾盘会看到惊人的跳水
35:36 - 35:38
EN: We’re sideways for about 10 bars,
ZH: 横盘了大约10根K线
35:38 - 35:40
EN: and now pretty much still sideways – sideways to up.
ZH: 现在基本上也还是横盘——略微上涨
35:41 - 35:50
EN: It’s okay to change your style of trading from bull breakout trading
ZH: 可以改变交易的策略——从突破交易，变成通道交易， 现在是区间交易
35:45 - 35:50
EN: to channel trading, and now to Trading Range trading.
ZH: 可以改变交易的策略——从突破交易，变成通道交易， 现在是区间交易
35:50 - 35:53
EN: Trading Range trading is okay, especially late in the day like this,
ZH: 尤其接近收盘时，可以按照震荡区间来交易
35:53 - 35:57
EN: to get out below a strong bear bar reversing down from the top of the range.
ZH: 在价格从区间顶部开始下跌时离场
36:02 - 36:06
EN: Failed breakout above a Double Top, and that means it’s a type of Wedge.
ZH: 突破双顶失败，所以它是楔形顶的一种
36:06 - 36:09
EN: Three pushes up – one, two, and three
ZH: 3次向上的推动——1，2，3
36:09 - 36:12
EN: - even though the first two simply form a Double Top.
ZH: 尽管前两次推动只是形成了一个双顶 （注：意思是，尽管2没有明显高于1）
36:12 - 36:16
EN: Any time you have a Double Top
ZH: 每当向上突破双顶的尝试失败、下跌，就有3次向上的推动
36:14 - 36:16
EN: and a breakout that reverses, you have three pushes up.
ZH: 每当向上突破双顶的尝试失败、下跌，就有3次向上的推动
36:16 - 36:23
EN: You have the two pushes of the Double Top and then the breakout
ZH: 双顶就是两次推动了，失败的突破是第三推， 如果再看到这样一根不错的做空信号K线
36:19 - 36:23
EN: for the third push, and if you get a decent sell signal bar like that,
ZH: 双顶就是两次推动了，失败的突破是第三推， 如果再看到这样一根不错的做空信号K线
36:23 - 36:27
EN: it’s reasonable to get out below the low of that strong bear bar.
ZH: 在强势阴线下方离场是合理的选择
36:27 - 36:30
EN: It’s also okay to hold long and rely on your stop.
ZH: 依赖止损、继续持有也是可以的
36:30 - 36:32
EN: Maybe this point below here.
ZH: 比如把止损保留在它的下方
36:32 - 36:37
EN: Late in the day, you don’t want to use as wide a stop
ZH: 临近收盘，最好不要再用那么宽的止损
36:34 - 36:37
EN: as you would if it were earlier in the day.
ZH: 临近收盘，最好不要再用那么宽的止损
36:38 - 36:41
EN: The market tested down, formed a slightly Higher Low,
ZH: 最终，市场回调，低点仍然在抬高
36:41 - 36:44
EN: and then resumed up again into the close.
ZH: 然后一直涨到收盘
Slide 020
Time: 36:45
Bilingual Transcript
36:48 - 36:51
EN: Let’s say you bought at the top of this breakout.
ZH: 假设你在这次突破的最高点买入
36:51 - 36:52
EN: It’s a Buy The Close reversal.
ZH: 这是买收盘的上涨趋势 （注：连续3根大阳线收在最高）
36:52 - 36:55
EN: You were confident that the market would probably go up
ZH: 你坚信市场会继续上涨
36:55 - 37:02
EN: for at least some kind of a Measured Move, maybe based upon the height
ZH: 至少涨到某个MM目标位，比如把突破的高度往上翻一倍—— 从它的开盘价，到它的收盘价
36:58 - 37:02
EN: of the breakout, the open of this bar to the close of that bar.
ZH: 至少涨到某个MM目标位，比如把突破的高度往上翻一倍—— 从它的开盘价，到它的收盘价
37:02 - 37:06
EN: 60% chance we’re going up here, a Measured Move up,
ZH: 60%的概率会涨到这里的MM目标位
37:06 - 37:09
EN: and therefore you can buy that close and put a stop down here.
ZH: 所以你可以在它的收盘买入，然后把止损放在下方
37:12 - 37:13
EN: That’s your Initial Risk.
ZH: 这就是你的初始风险
37:16 - 37:18
EN: Let’s say you bought at the top of the channel.
ZH: 假设你在通道的上沿买入了
37:18 - 37:21
EN: Is the probability as high that you’re going to make money?
ZH: 此时赚钱的概率是否也有那么高？
37:21 - 37:23
EN: No, this is a strong breakout.
ZH: 不一样。之前这里是强势突破
37:23 - 37:25
EN: It’s the strongest type of bull trend.
ZH: 是最强的趋势
37:25 - 37:32
EN: This is still a pretty good bull trend, and it’s a breakout
ZH: 这里仍然是相当好的上涨趋势，而且它在更高的时间周期上也是一次突破，
37:28 - 37:32
EN: on a higher timeframe chart, but it’s not as strong as this,
ZH: 这里仍然是相当好的上涨趋势，而且它在更高的时间周期上也是一次突破，
37:32 - 37:38
EN: and the probability of making money buying that close is not
ZH: 这里仍然是相当好的上涨趋势，而且它在更高的时间周期上也是一次突破， 但不如之前这么强，因此在这里买入的胜率也没有之前这么高
37:35 - 37:38
EN: as high as the probability of making money buying this close.
ZH: 但不如之前这么强，因此在这里买入的胜率也没有之前这么高
37:38 - 37:40
EN: But it’s still very good.
ZH: 但仍然足够好
37:43 - 37:45
EN: Here’s the height of the breakout.
ZH: 这是突破的高度
37:46 - 37:52
EN: Is it still a 60% chance that we’re going to go up for a Measured Move
ZH: 涨到MM目标位的概率，仍然有60%吗？差不多
37:49 - 37:52
EN: based upon the height of the breakout? It might be.
ZH: 涨到MM目标位的概率，仍然有60%吗？差不多
37:52 - 37:54
EN: We’re probably going higher.
ZH: 大概率还会继续上涨
37:54 - 37:55
EN: I don’t know how much higher.
ZH: 问题是还能涨多少
37:55 - 37:56
EN: We have a lot of small bars here.
ZH: 这里有很多小K线
37:57 - 37:59
EN: Your risk is less.
ZH: 你的风险更小
37:59 - 38:03
EN: The height of this breakout, if you buy that close, your stop is down here.
ZH: 这里突破的高度——如果你在它的收盘买入，止损放在起涨点下方
38:03 - 38:10
EN: Here, if you buy this close, your stop is below the most
ZH: 而这里，在它的收盘买入，止损放在最近的重要低点下方，就在这里
38:06 - 38:10
EN: recent major Higher Low, just below this bear bar.
ZH: 而这里，在它的收盘买入，止损放在最近的重要低点下方，就在这里
38:10 - 38:11
EN: So your risk is less.
ZH: 风险更小
38:11 - 38:14
EN: Whenever the risk is less, usually you get better risk/reward,
ZH: 如果风险更小，盈亏比通常就会更好
38:15 - 38:19
EN: and better risk/reward usually means lower probability of making money.
ZH: 而盈亏比更好的代价通常是概率变低了
38:24 - 38:27
EN: I began by talking about my definition of a Tight Bull Channel,
ZH: 这节课的开始，我讲解了窄上涨通道的定义
Slide 021
Time: 38:25
Bilingual Transcript
38:28 - 38:31
EN: and when the market’s in a Tight Bull Channel, you should only look to buy.
ZH: 而当市场处于窄上涨通道时，只做多、不做空
38:31 - 38:34
EN: It’s very difficult to make money selling.
ZH: 做空很难赚到钱
38:34 - 38:39
EN: And any time you look at a chart where it’s difficult
ZH: 任何时候，当你发现做空很难赚到钱的时候， 就应该只考虑做多
38:36 - 38:39
EN: to make money selling, you should only look to buy.
ZH: 任何时候，当你发现做空很难赚到钱的时候， 就应该只考虑做多
38:39 - 38:44
EN: A Tight Bull Channel is a breakout on the next higher timeframe chart.
ZH: 窄上涨通道在更高的时间周期上是一次突破
38:44 - 38:48
EN: For example, if you see a Tight Bull Channel on the 5-minute chart,
ZH: 例如，5分钟图上的窄上涨通道
38:48 - 38:52
EN: either the 15-minute or 60-minute charts will be in a breakout,
ZH: 在15分钟，或60分钟图上就是一次突破
38:52 - 38:54
EN: a series of consecutive bull bars.
ZH: 是连续的一连串阳线
38:54 - 38:57
EN: And that tells you that you should only be looking to buy.
ZH: 说明此时只能做多
38:57 - 38:59
EN: Sometimes when you have a Tight Bull Channel,
ZH: 在上涨趋势中也会有窄下降通道
38:59 - 39:06
EN: there’ll be a bull flag that is a Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 如果只持续几根K线，比如5根K线， 那么它就只是牛旗而已
39:03 - 39:06
EN: Usually it’s only a few bars, maybe 5 bars long,
ZH: 如果只持续几根K线，比如5根K线， 那么它就只是牛旗而已
39:06 - 39:09
EN: but sometimes it can grow to 10 or 20 or more bars.
ZH: 但有时候它会发展到10根、20根K线
39:09 - 39:11
EN: That becomes an endless pullback.
ZH: 那就变成了无尽的回调（即反转）
39:11 - 39:19
EN: If you have that and then have a strong bear breakout
ZH: 如果再有大阴线强势跌破，且后续有跟随的话， 市场很可能被反转进入下降趋势
39:15 - 39:19
EN: and strong follow-through, the market can be reversing into a bear trend.
ZH: 如果再有大阴线强势跌破，且后续有跟随的话， 市场很可能被反转进入下降趋势
39:24 - 39:25
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
39:25 - 39:27
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
39:27 - 39:30
EN: This is the first of four videos on trading Tight Bull Channels.
ZH: 如何交易窄上涨通道的第1节课，就先讲到这里