al-brooks-course
40C - Entering Late in Trends
Raw transcript and slide notes for 40C - Entering Late in Trends.
Overview
- Slides: 14
- Transcript segments: 300
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课
00:05 - 00:10
EN: This is the third of five videos on entering late in trends.
ZH: 这是在趋势后期入场的第3节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:13
Bilingual Transcript
00:14 - 00:17
EN: I’ll begin by talking about the final trend bar.
ZH: 首先我们还是来讲最后一根趋势K线
00:17 - 00:22
EN: Every trend, up or down, when you look back at it after a reversal,
ZH: 每个趋势，无论是上涨还是下跌，在反转之后，
00:22 - 00:26
EN: you can find the final trend bar, and that’s important
ZH: 你可以找到其中最后一根趋势K线，它很重要
00:26 - 00:31
EN: because institutions trade using line charts and not bar charts,
ZH: 因为很多机构交易时使用的是线型图，而不是K线图
00:31 - 00:34
EN: and then the high close in a bull trend
ZH: 于是上涨趋势中最高的收盘价
00:34 - 00:37
EN: and the low close in a bear trend become important.
ZH: 和下降趋势中最低的收盘价，就变得很重要
00:39 - 00:45
EN: At some point when a trend reverses, there is a bar or a series of bars
ZH: 当趋势反转时，会有一根或一系列K线
00:45 - 00:48
EN: that indicate that the trend traders are giving up
ZH: 表明之前的顺趋势交易者正在放弃
00:48 - 00:51
EN: and that the traders in the opposite direction are taking control.
ZH: 同时逆势交易者正在逐渐掌控市场
00:51 - 00:54
EN: I refer to these as Give-up Bars.
ZH: 我把这些K线称为“放弃K线”
00:56 - 01:00
EN: And finally, I’ll be talking a little bit about strong bear breakouts.
ZH: 最后，我会讲一讲强势的空头突破
Slide 002
Time: 01:01
Bilingual Transcript
01:09 - 01:12
EN: We have a bull trend, and at some point after it reverses,
ZH: 上涨趋势，在反转后的某个时刻
01:12 - 01:16
EN: you look back and say, well, that was the final strong bull trend bar.
ZH: 你回过头看，发现这是最后一根强势的阳线
01:16 - 01:20
EN: There was one more small bull bar with a slightly higher close,
ZH: 后面还有一根小阳线，有略微更高的收盘价
01:20 - 01:25
EN: but this was the final time when bulls were actually clearly in control.
ZH: 但它是多头实际上能够掌控市场的最后一根K线
01:25 - 01:30
EN: Again, after this reverses, this is the final bull trend bar of that leg up.
ZH: 同样，在这次反转之后，它是之前上涨中的最后一根阳线
01:30 - 01:35
EN: Again, a brief final bull trend bar.
ZH: 这里，唯一的阳线，多头仅仅掌控了1根K线
01:33 - 01:35
EN: The bulls own the market for only 1 bar.
ZH: 这里，唯一的阳线，多头仅仅掌控了1根K线
01:35 - 01:41
EN: This was potentially the final bull trend bar, but the bulls got
ZH: 这个原本可能是最后一根阳线，但多头制造了第2段上涨， 所以最终它是最后一根阳线
01:38 - 01:41
EN: another leg up and then this became the final bull bar.
ZH: 这个原本可能是最后一根阳线，但多头制造了第2段上涨， 所以最终它是最后一根阳线
01:43 - 01:46
EN: Here, possibly the final bull trend bar.
ZH: 这里，它可能是最后一根阳线
01:46 - 01:49
EN: Strong enough rally, probably we’ll go at least a little bit higher.
ZH: 上涨足够强势，可能还会至少再涨一些
01:50 - 01:53
EN: Again, a potential final bull trend bar.
ZH: 还有它，可能是最后一根阳线
01:53 - 01:56
EN: We went a little bit higher, and we may go higher still.
ZH: 略微再涨了一些，可能还会继续上涨
02:00 - 02:04
EN: If you’re trading this, you might be buying for a variety of reasons,
ZH: 如果你在这里交易，你可能有非常多的方法和买入点
02:04 - 02:06
EN: and one might be you’ll buy the close.
ZH: 其中一种方法就是买收盘——
02:06 - 02:09
EN: Every time you see a bull bar, you buy the close,
ZH: 每当你看到一根阳线（收在一半以上），你就在它收盘的时候买入
02:09 - 02:14
EN: betting that the market will go at least a little bit higher
ZH: 押注市场至少会再涨一些—— 尽管你知道最终某个时刻上涨会停滞
02:12 - 02:14
EN: - knowing that eventually it will not.
ZH: 押注市场至少会再涨一些—— 尽管你知道最终某个时刻上涨会停滞
02:14 - 02:19
EN: Eventually there’ll be a final bull trend bar that will be the high close
ZH: 最终会出现一根阳线，它就是整个上涨过程中最高的收盘价
02:19 - 02:23
EN: of the rally, and the market will then go the other way.
ZH: 然后市场开始反转下跌
02:24 - 02:27
EN: What do you do if you buy that high close
ZH: 如果你正好买在那个最高的收盘价
02:27 - 02:30
EN: and then you see this bear bar immediately afterwards,
ZH: 后面立刻是这样的阴线
02:30 - 02:33
EN: especially since you might be at the top of a Trading Range?
ZH: 尤其是你觉得现在可能是震荡区间的上沿，该怎么办？
02:37 - 02:38
EN: Bear bars.
ZH: 阴线
02:38 - 02:40
EN: Any one of them could be the final bear trend bar.
ZH: 它们中的任何一个，在当时都有可能是最后一根阴线
02:40 - 02:43
EN: In hindsight, after you get a strong reversal,
ZH: 事后来看，在强势的反转之后
02:43 - 02:46
EN: you know that this was the final bear trend bar, and the same with that.
ZH: 你能够知道它是最后一根阴线，还有它
02:46 - 02:56
EN: And after this reversal, we had many possible candidates
ZH: 在这个反转之后，一度有很多候选者， 最终它是这个下降趋势中的最后一根阴线
02:50 - 02:56
EN: for the final bear trend bar, but this turned out
ZH: 在这个反转之后，一度有很多候选者， 最终它是这个下降趋势中的最后一根阴线
02:53 - 02:56
EN: to be the final bear trend bar of this bear trend.
ZH: 在这个反转之后，一度有很多候选者， 最终它是这个下降趋势中的最后一根阴线
03:01 - 03:04
EN: It’s in a bear trend, so traders are selling for any reason,
ZH: 下降趋势，所以交易者用各种方法卖出
03:04 - 03:08
EN: and one common way to trade is if there’s a strong bear trend bar,
ZH: 一种常见的方法是，如果看到一根强势的阴线
03:08 - 03:16
EN: you sell the close, believing that the odds are a strong bear trend bar
ZH: 你就在它收盘时卖出， 相信强势的大阴线意味着会继续下跌
03:13 - 03:16
EN: likely means we’re going to get lower prices.
ZH: 你就在它收盘时卖出， 相信强势的大阴线意味着会继续下跌
03:16 - 03:20
EN: Everyone knows that one of the bars will not have lower prices,
ZH: 所有人都知道，最终从某一根K线开始，价格不再降低
03:20 - 03:24
EN: and in fact it’ll be the final bear trend bar, and then we’ll get a reversal.
ZH: 那根K线就是最后一根阴线，然后市场开始反转
03:24 - 03:29
EN: Had you sold this bear bar, what are you thinking after you see this bull bar?
ZH: 如果你在这根阴线的收盘卖出做空， 看到这根阳线的时候，会是什么心情？
03:30 - 03:35
EN: You’re thinking that “maybe I sold the final bear trend bar
ZH: 你会想：“坏了，也许我卖在最后一根阴线，市场快要反转了。”
03:33 - 03:35
EN: and the market is about to reverse.”
ZH: 你会想：“坏了，也许我卖在最后一根阴线，市场快要反转了。”
Slide 003
Time: 03:40
Bilingual Transcript
03:41 - 03:42
EN: A bull trend bar.
ZH: 阳线
03:42 - 03:51
EN: Not especially big, so not especially strong, but Buy The Close bulls
ZH: 体积没有很大，并不是很强势， 但买收盘的多头仍然会买入，希望趋势继续上涨
03:48 - 03:51
EN: will still buy, hoping that the trend continues higher,
ZH: 体积没有很大，并不是很强势， 但买收盘的多头仍然会买入，希望趋势继续上涨
03:51 - 03:53
EN: knowing that it might not.
ZH: 但也知道有可能不会（再上涨）
03:53 - 04:02
EN: When the channel up is this tight, the first reversal down
ZH: 上涨通道这么窄，第1次下跌大概率只是小反转， 最多是回调、变成牛旗
03:56 - 04:02
EN: probably will be minor, and the best the bears
ZH: 上涨通道这么窄，第1次下跌大概率只是小反转， 最多是回调、变成牛旗
03:59 - 04:02
EN: will get is a pullback into a bull flag.
ZH: 上涨通道这么窄，第1次下跌大概率只是小反转， 最多是回调、变成牛旗
04:02 - 04:05
EN: If the bulls buy here, they know they probably will be able
ZH: 在这里买入的多头，知道自己大概率不会亏钱，
04:05 - 04:16
EN: to get out breakeven because the first reversal is minor
ZH: 因为第1次下跌会是小反转，上涨趋势会恢复， 足够让他们小赚、打平，至少不会亏什么钱
04:09 - 04:16
EN: and the bull trend will probably resume enough for these bulls
ZH: 因为第1次下跌会是小反转，上涨趋势会恢复， 足够让他们小赚、打平，至少不会亏什么钱
04:12 - 04:16
EN: to get out breakeven or with a small profit or a small loss.
ZH: 因为第1次下跌会是小反转，上涨趋势会恢复， 足够让他们小赚、打平，至少不会亏什么钱
04:22 - 04:26
EN: What’s happening here? We got a bear bar after that final bull bar,
ZH: 这里发生了什么？在最后的那根阳线之后，是阴线
04:26 - 04:29
EN: and the bulls are no longer aggressively buying.
ZH: 多头不再积极地买入
04:29 - 04:32
EN: So had you bought that final bull close right here
ZH: 所以，如果你在最后一根阳线的收盘买入了，
04:32 - 04:36
EN: and then you see this bear bar, you probably are disappointed
ZH: 然后你看到这个阴线，你会感到失望
04:36 - 04:40
EN: and you probably have to be rethinking your plan.
ZH: 你可能需要重新考虑你的计划
04:40 - 04:41
EN: You’re looking to the left.
ZH: 你会看向左边的背景
04:41 - 04:43
EN: Maybe we’re at the top of a developing Trading Range,
ZH: 也许市场正处于震荡区间的顶部
04:43 - 04:47
EN: maybe we have a Double Top, neckline, maybe we’ll break to a Measured Move down.
ZH: 可能这是一个双顶、颈线，会向下跌破，跌到MM目标位
04:48 - 04:51
EN: However, when the channel up is this tight,
ZH: 然而，上涨通道很窄
04:51 - 04:53
EN: usually the first reversal down is minor.
ZH: 通常第1次下跌只是小反转
05:01 - 05:03
EN: The bears see what’s going on as well.
ZH: 空头也看到了目前的情况
05:03 - 05:06
EN: When they see the close of that bear bar, they’re thinking,
ZH: 这根阴线收盘时，他们想到：
05:06 - 05:10
EN: “Oh, maybe we’re winning.” Every time a bull buys,
ZH: “好，我们胜利了。”每当有多头买入，就一定有空头在卖出 （注：订单成交需要买方和卖方）
05:09 - 05:17
EN: there has to be a bear that sells, and at this point the bears
ZH: “好，我们胜利了。”每当有多头买入，就一定有空头在卖出 （注：订单成交需要买方和卖方） 在这个时候，空头非常希望他们已经阻止了上涨趋势
05:13 - 05:17
EN: are pretty hopeful that they may have stopped the bull trend.
ZH: 在这个时候，空头非常希望他们已经阻止了上涨趋势
05:22 - 05:26
EN: What took place here? Well, I call this a Give-up Bar.
ZH: 这里发生了什么？我称之为放弃K线
05:26 - 05:29
EN: The bulls are giving up, and if they did not give up earlier
ZH: 多头正在放弃； 在那个最高的收盘价买入之后，
05:29 - 05:36
EN: after buying that close, a lot of them are giving up
ZH: 如果多头还没有离场的话， 很多人会在这两根连续阴线下跌时放弃
05:33 - 05:36
EN: with this second pair of consecutive bear bars.
ZH: 如果多头还没有离场的话， 很多人会在这两根连续阴线下跌时放弃
05:37 - 05:40
EN: Bulls and bears sell.
ZH: 多头和空头都在卖出
05:40 - 05:43
EN: The bulls are giving up and the bears are selling,
ZH: 多头在放弃，空头在入场
05:43 - 05:45
EN: expecting at least a couple legs down.
ZH: 预期至少会有两段下跌
Slide 004
Time: 05:50
Bilingual Transcript
05:51 - 05:55
EN: Big bear bar, the biggest bear bar 20 or more bars into a trend.
ZH: 大阴线，趋势下跌了20多根K线以来，体积最大的阴线
05:55 - 06:00
EN: More likely an exhaustion bar, meaning that the bears are probably exhausted
ZH: 更有可能是竭尽型的抛售高潮，意味着空头已经力竭，
06:00 - 06:06
EN: and that we’ll probably have to go sideways to up for 5 or 10
ZH: 在空头重新掌控市场之前，可能会先横盘或反弹5~10根K线
06:03 - 06:06
EN: or more bars before the bears can regain control again.
ZH: 在空头重新掌控市场之前，可能会先横盘或反弹5~10根K线
06:11 - 06:15
EN: What took place here? A lot of the bears are quickly buying back their shorts.
ZH: 这里发生了什么？很多空头在迅速地买入回补
06:15 - 06:20
EN: They saw this very big bear bar as a gift – a sudden,
ZH: 他们把这个大阴线看作是来自市场的礼物——
06:20 - 06:23
EN: unexpected big profit – and they’re taking their profit.
ZH: 突然的、意外的大赚——所以他们正在止盈
06:23 - 06:26
EN: And the bulls see the same thing, and they’re buying as well.
ZH: 多头发现了这一点，他们也在买入
06:32 - 06:37
EN: After a Sell Climax, the bears buy back their shorts, the bulls start to buy
ZH: 在抛售高潮之后，空头买入回补，多头开始入场
06:37 - 06:40
EN: - usually you’re going to get at least a couple small legs up.
ZH: ——通常至少会有两段小的反弹
06:44 - 06:49
EN: And what took place here? Some of the bears held short even with this bull bar,
ZH: 这里发生了什么？一些空头即使看到了这根阳线，也仍然继续持有
06:49 - 06:54
EN: but at some point they give up, and this pair of bars
ZH: 但在某个时刻他们放弃了， 这两根大阳线代表空头正在放弃
06:52 - 06:54
EN: probably represents the bears giving up.
ZH: 但在某个时刻他们放弃了， 这两根大阳线代表空头正在放弃
Slide 005
Time: 07:00
Bilingual Transcript
07:02 - 07:07
EN: I talked about the bulls buying closes and the bulls buying this close
ZH: 之前讲到了多头买收盘的做法，一些多头在它的收盘买入，
07:07 - 07:10
EN: and then being disappointed by this bear bar and the next several bear bars.
ZH: 然后对这个阴线和接下来的几个阴线感到失望
07:12 - 07:14
EN: The bulls knew they were at the top of the Trading Range,
ZH: 多头知道他们处于震荡区间的顶部
07:14 - 07:16
EN: but they thought the momentum up was strong enough
ZH: 但他们认为上涨动能足够强
07:16 - 07:18
EN: so they had a reasonable chance of breaking above.
ZH: 所以有一定的概率可以向上突破
07:19 - 07:21
EN: They also knew that the momentum up was strong enough
ZH: 他们也知道，正因为上涨动能足够强
07:21 - 07:25
EN: so that the first reversal down would allow them to get out breakeven.
ZH: 所以即使下跌，第1次下跌也只是回调， 他们至少可以打平离场
07:25 - 07:30
EN: It would be a bull flag and the market
ZH: 下跌会形成牛旗，市场会涨回到他们的初始入场价格
07:28 - 07:30
EN: would test back up to their original entry price.
ZH: 下跌会形成牛旗，市场会涨回到他们的初始入场价格
07:41 - 07:45
EN: What happened to these bulls after they saw this disappointing follow-through?
ZH: 看到这些令人失望的跟随之后，多头会怎么做？
07:45 - 07:48
EN: A lot of them placed limit orders to get out breakeven.
ZH: 其中很多人直接在入场价挂限价卖单，准备打平离场
07:49 - 07:52
EN: They bought that close, disappointed by this bar.
ZH: 他们在它的收盘买入，对这根K线感到失望
07:52 - 07:53
EN: Tried to get out breakeven.
ZH: 争取不亏钱离场
07:53 - 07:56
EN: Maybe they were successful on these bars,
ZH: 订单在这些K线上可以成交
07:56 - 07:59
EN: and then they had another chance to get out breakeven here.
ZH: 这里有另一次打平离场的机会
07:59 - 08:02
EN: And what happened when the market went back above their entry price?
ZH: 当市场涨回到他们的初始入场价格后，发生了什么？
08:02 - 08:04
EN: We have a tail on the top of the bar.
ZH: K线的顶部有上影线
08:04 - 08:10
EN: It went above the entry price of these Buy The Close bulls
ZH: 它略微超过了那个最高的收盘价之后，立刻反转下跌
08:08 - 08:10
EN: and immediately reversed down.
ZH: 它略微超过了那个最高的收盘价之后，立刻反转下跌
08:10 - 08:12
EN: Why would that happen?
ZH: 为什么会出现这样的情况？
08:12 - 08:16
EN: Well, part of the reason is a lot of these bulls were so disappointed by this,
ZH: 部分原因是，这些多头对跟随感到非常失望
08:16 - 08:20
EN: and knowing the context – a possible Trading Range top
ZH: 而且他们知道背景——可能正处于震荡区间的顶部
08:21 - 08:23
EN: - they decided to get out breakeven.
ZH: 于是决定打平离场
08:23 - 08:25
EN: They placed a limit order to get out at their entry price,
ZH: 他们在入场价格挂限价卖单
08:25 - 08:29
EN: and as soon as the market went a little bit
ZH: 当市场超过这个价格1个tick的时候，他们成交、离场
08:27 - 08:29
EN: above their entry price, they got out.
ZH: 当市场超过这个价格1个tick的时候，他们成交、离场
08:30 - 08:33
EN: And the bears knew the bulls were disappointed as well,
ZH: 空头知道多头会感到失望
08:33 - 08:38
EN: and therefore they’re looking to sell at the same price,
ZH: 空头知道有多头会在这里离场， 所以空头也会在这个价格卖出
08:36 - 08:38
EN: knowing that the bulls will get out there.
ZH: 空头知道有多头会在这里离场， 所以空头也会在这个价格卖出
08:38 - 08:41
EN: Bulls and bears selling resulted in that.
ZH: 这是多空双方同时卖出所造成的
Slide 006
Time: 08:45
Bilingual Transcript
08:52 - 09:02
EN: Some bulls decided that, well, this channel is so tight chances are even
ZH: 一些多头认为，这么窄的上涨通道，就算大幅下跌， 最多也就是一个震荡区间
08:57 - 09:02
EN: if we get a big selloff, the best the bears get is a Trading Range.
ZH: 一些多头认为，这么窄的上涨通道，就算大幅下跌， 最多也就是一个震荡区间
09:02 - 09:05
EN: The market probably will not fall below this low
ZH: 市场大概率不会跌破这个低点
09:05 - 09:07
EN: before it gets back up to that entry price.
ZH: 而是会先涨回到他们的入场价附近（涨回到区间顶部）
09:08 - 09:11
EN: These Buy The Close bulls are scale-in bulls,
ZH: 这些买收盘的多头做好了加仓的准备
09:11 - 09:13
EN: and they’ll buy more above a bull bar.
ZH: 他们会在阳线上方加仓买入
09:13 - 09:17
EN: When they see this selloff, especially around a 50% pullback
ZH: 当他们看到这个下跌，尤其是在50%回调附近，
09:17 - 09:21
EN: of this rally and a test of that low, they place a limit order
ZH: 测试那个低点的时候，他们挂限价买单
09:21 - 09:23
EN: to buy on a stop above the bull bar.
ZH: 或者在这根阳线上方挂突破买单
09:24 - 09:26
EN: So they bought here, they bought more here;
ZH: 他们在这里买入，在这里加仓
09:26 - 09:29
EN: their average entry price is the midpoint.
ZH: （假设1:1加仓）两者的中点就是平均入场价格
09:29 - 09:32
EN: They could get out at their average entry price right here
ZH: 这里，他们能够在平均价格离场
09:32 - 09:36
EN: - small loss here, small profit here, breakeven on the trade.
ZH: ——初始仓位小亏，加仓的部分小赚，整体打平
09:36 - 09:40
EN: Others will try to get out on the test of that high close,
ZH: 一些多头会争取在那个最高的收盘价离场
09:40 - 09:45
EN: try to get out breakeven on their first entry
ZH: ——初始仓位打平，加仓的部分赚钱
09:43 - 09:45
EN: and then with a profit on their second entry.
ZH: ——初始仓位打平，加仓的部分赚钱
09:45 - 09:49
EN: And you can see we got exactly to that high close and stalled.
ZH: 可以看到，市场刚好涨到那个最高的收盘价，然后停滞
09:49 - 09:53
EN: Most of the bulls who tried to get out at that close were unable.
ZH: 大多数想要在那里离场的多头，都没有能够成交 （注：要多涨1个tick才能确保成交）
09:54 - 09:59
EN: And then they see this small bear bar after that test of that close
ZH: 刚好测试了那个最高的收盘价，测试了他们想要离场的价格
09:59 - 10:02
EN: where they’re trying to exit, and they’re deciding that
ZH: 然后看到了这根小阴线，他们心想：
10:02 - 10:06
EN: “eh, maybe it’s not going to allow me out,” so some of them started to sell
ZH: “哎，也许没机会成交了”所以其中一些人选择市价卖出，
10:06 - 10:09
EN: at the market or below bars or even above bars.
ZH: 或者在阴线下方卖出，或者在K线上方逢高卖出
10:10 - 10:15
EN: They’ll take a small loss on this entry,
ZH: 初始仓位小亏，但加仓的部分有较大的利润
10:13 - 10:15
EN: their profit on this entry will be bigger,
ZH: 初始仓位小亏，但加仓的部分有较大的利润
10:15 - 10:18
EN: and they’ll end up with a small profit on the trade.
ZH: 最终整体是盈利的
10:20 - 10:24
EN: What does this tail on the top of this bar and this bar tell you?
ZH: 这根K线和这根K线顶部的上影线说明了什么？
10:24 - 10:29
EN: It tells you that traders were selling, and a lot of those sellers were bulls
ZH: 说明有人在上方卖出，其中很多是多头
10:29 - 10:33
EN: who bought this close, hoping to be able to get out without a loss.
ZH: 他们在这个收盘价买入，希望能够打平离场
10:33 - 10:37
EN: Some did not scale in; they just simply relied on their stop
ZH: 有些人并没有加仓，他们只是依赖初始止损，
10:37 - 10:40
EN: and bet that we would either continue up and they’d make a profit,
ZH: 如果继续上涨，他们就剥头皮赚快钱，
10:40 - 10:43
EN: or if we sold off, it’ll be a bear leg in a Trading Range
ZH: 或者，如果下跌，也只是震荡区间中的下跌波段，
10:43 - 10:46
EN: and we’d test back up to the top of the range.
ZH: 会再次涨回到区间的上沿
10:46 - 10:50
EN: In any case, you had bulls who bought that close trying to sell,
ZH: 总之，在那个收盘价买入的多头，尝试在这个价格卖出
10:50 - 10:52
EN: and when it got at that close, it pulled back.
ZH: 所以当价格涨回来的时候，回调下跌了
10:52 - 10:54
EN: Got at the close, pulled back.
ZH: 一碰到那个收盘价，就下跌
10:59 - 11:00
EN: I mentioned Give-up Bars.
ZH: 刚才简单提到了放弃K线
Slide 007
Time: 11:00
Bilingual Transcript
11:00 - 11:03
EN: I want to talk a little bit about them now.
ZH: 现在我想具体地讲一讲
Slide 008
Time: 11:04
Bilingual Transcript
11:12 - 11:15
EN: The bulls who bought this close, whether or not they scale in,
ZH: 在这个收盘价买入的多头，无论他们是否加仓
11:15 - 11:17
EN: tried to get out breakeven at that close.
ZH: 都会争取在这个价格打平离场
11:17 - 11:20
EN: It had to get 1 tick above that close for them to get out.
ZH: 市场必须多涨1个tick，才能保证他们的限价卖单可以成交
11:20 - 11:25
EN: Very few were able to get out with their limit order exactly at that close.
ZH: 很少限价卖单能够在那个收盘价正好成交
11:25 - 11:28
EN: And now we have that tail, and now we have a bear bar,
ZH: 上影线，现在又出现了阴线
11:28 - 11:30
EN: so this might be a possible failed breakout.
ZH: 所以这根大阳线可能是失败的突破
11:30 - 11:35
EN: A lot of the bulls will get out on the reversal down below this bear bar.
ZH: 很多多头会在这个反转阴线的下方用突破卖单离场
11:37 - 11:41
EN: Small loss on the first entry, a bigger profit on their second entry,
ZH: 初始仓位小亏，加仓的部分有较大的盈利
11:41 - 11:44
EN: and they end up with a small profit on the trade.
ZH: 这笔交易最终是小赚的
11:50 - 11:54
EN: What took place here? Some of the bulls who bought that close
ZH: 这里发生了什么？一些多头在那个收盘价买入之后，
11:54 - 11:59
EN: did not get their fill here, and they did not exit on the reversal down,
ZH: 这里的限价卖单没有能够成交， 他们也没有在反转下跌时及时离场
12:00 - 12:03
EN: and they held hoping that we would still go higher.
ZH: 他们仍然希望市场会上涨
12:03 - 12:08
EN: But now we’re getting a second entry short – here, and then here,
ZH: 但现在出现了第2做空入场点——1，然后2
12:08 - 12:12
EN: and a lot of them gave up on the breakout below this small Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 所以很多多头在跌破窄震荡区间的时候放弃了
12:12 - 12:15
EN: That created this big bear bar.
ZH: 于是形成了这根大阴线
12:15 - 12:17
EN: This is the final bulls giving up;
ZH: 代表最后的多头也放弃了
12:17 - 12:20
EN: the bulls who bought that close aren’t able to get out breakeven.
ZH: 在那个收盘价买入的多头无法打平离场
12:20 - 12:25
EN: They had several chances to get back up to their entry price
ZH: 又尝试了几次 ，想要在入场价打平离场、不亏钱
12:25 - 12:30
EN: and get out without a loss, and they were unable,
ZH: 但没有能够成功，最终在这里放弃
12:28 - 12:30
EN: and this is where they gave up.
ZH: 但没有能够成功，最终在这里放弃
12:30 - 12:32
EN: And this is a Give-up Bar.
ZH: 这是一个放弃K线
12:32 - 12:35
EN: The bulls are giving up and bears are selling as well.
ZH: 多头放弃、卖出，空头也在卖出
12:35 - 12:39
EN: They know the bulls are trapped, and therefore the bulls are going
ZH: 他们知道多头被套牢了，这些多头不得不卖出平仓，
12:39 - 12:45
EN: to have to sell out of their longs, and the bears sold betting
ZH: 空头知道这一点，所以他们也卖出，押注反转下跌
12:43 - 12:45
EN: that the bulls would be selling as well.
ZH: 空头知道这一点，所以他们也卖出，押注反转下跌
Slide 009
Time: 12:49
Bilingual Transcript
12:51 - 12:55
EN: Strong bear selloff – 2, 3, 4 consecutive bear bars.
ZH: 剧烈的抛售——连续2，3，4根阴线
12:55 - 12:58
EN: Bears are selling for any reason, including selling closes.
ZH: 空头用各种方式卖出，包括卖收盘
12:59 - 13:02
EN: Some sold maybe at one of the closes and then added on.
ZH: 有些人在其中某根K线的收盘卖出之后，继续加仓
13:02 - 13:07
EN: Some bears sold this close, hoping that the bear trend would continue down,
ZH: 一些空头在它的收盘卖出做空，希望市场会继续下跌
13:07 - 13:12
EN: knowing that if it reversed up and he managed his trade correctly,
ZH: 他们知道，如果价格反弹，他们能够正确地管理， 至少可以避免亏损
13:11 - 13:12
EN: he could avoid a loss.
ZH: 他们知道，如果价格反弹，他们能够正确地管理， 至少可以避免亏损
13:16 - 13:20
EN: Biggest bear bar, or one of the biggest bear bars in the bear trend,
ZH: 它是下降趋势中最大的阴线之一
13:20 - 13:25
EN: so possibly an exhaustion bar – and it’s testing near the bottom
ZH: 所以可能是竭尽型的高潮阴线—— 而且位于左边上涨趋势的起涨点附近
13:23 - 13:30
EN: of the bull swing as well, and therefore it’s at support
ZH: 所以可能是竭尽型的高潮阴线—— 而且位于左边上涨趋势的起涨点附近 所以可能有支撑，会反转上涨
13:28 - 13:30
EN: and we could reverse up.
ZH: 所以可能有支撑，会反转上涨
13:31 - 13:36
EN: You have a big bar, a Sell Climax, possible exhaustion, now at support.
ZH: 大阴线、竭尽型的抛售高潮、跌到了支撑位
13:36 - 13:39
EN: This could be a sell vacuum test of support,
ZH: 所以可能是对支撑位的真空测试
13:39 - 13:41
EN: and that could lead to an abrupt reversal.
ZH: 会导致突然的反转
13:47 - 13:52
EN: However, when the channel down is this tight, the first reversal up is minor.
ZH: 然而，当下降通道这么窄，第1次上涨大概率只是小反弹
13:52 - 13:56
EN: A lot of the bears who sold that close will use a wide stop,
ZH: 很多在那个收盘价卖出的空头会使用宽止损
13:56 - 14:01
EN: maybe up here or here, and look to sell more higher – maybe 2 points higher,
ZH: 比如放在这里或这里，然后逢高—— 比如在上方两个点的地方加仓卖出
14:01 - 14:03
EN: just below the top of the final Sell Climax bar
ZH: 就在抛售高潮大阴线的起跌点下方
14:03 - 14:07
EN: - betting that the channel is so tight, the reversal is minor.
ZH: ——押注通道这么窄，第1次只是小反弹
14:07 - 14:12
EN: The bears should be able to get at least a resumption attempt back down.
ZH: 空头应开至少会尝试恢复下跌
Slide 010
Time: 14:15
Bilingual Transcript
14:17 - 14:20
EN: Finally, I want to talk a little bit about strong bear breakouts.
ZH: 最后，我想讲一讲强势的空头突破
Slide 011
Time: 14:23
Bilingual Transcript
14:25 - 14:27
EN: Again, you have a strong selloff.
ZH: 还是这里，强势的抛售
14:27 - 14:30
EN: Bears sold here, and they were disappointed by this.
ZH: 空头在这里卖出，对跟随感到失望
14:30 - 14:36
EN: A lot tried to get out breakeven at that close, and this got close to it.
ZH: 所以很多人尝试在入场价格打平离场， 这根K线很接近了，但没有能够碰到
14:35 - 14:36
EN: They were unable.
ZH: 所以很多人尝试在入场价格打平离场， 这根K线很接近了，但没有能够碰到
14:36 - 14:38
EN: Others sold more higher.
ZH: 一些空头在上方加仓做空
14:38 - 14:45
EN: If they were very disappointed by this rally, they would try to get out
ZH: 如果他们对反弹感到非常失望， 他们会尝试打平离场——初始入场价格是这里，
14:42 - 14:45
EN: breakeven on their trade – one entry price is here,
ZH: 如果他们对反弹感到非常失望， 他们会尝试打平离场——初始入场价格是这里，
14:45 - 14:48
EN: one entry price is here, their average is here.
ZH: 加仓的价格在这里，平均成本在当中
14:48 - 14:51
EN: This bar allowed them to get out breakeven on the trade.
ZH: 这根K线能够让他们打平离场
14:51 - 14:57
EN: It did not get below this close, and therefore they ended up
ZH: 始终没有能够跌破这个收盘价， 所以这部分的仓位最终一定是亏损的
14:55 - 14:57
EN: with a loss on this sell.
ZH: 始终没有能够跌破这个收盘价， 所以这部分的仓位最终一定是亏损的
14:58 - 15:01
EN: When this reversed up strongly like this,
ZH: 当价格像这样强势反转上涨的时候
15:01 - 15:05
EN: the bears who did not get out breakeven on the entire trade gave up.
ZH: 之前没有能够打平离场的空头，终于放弃了
15:05 - 15:08
EN: This is a big Give-up Bar for the bears.
ZH: 这是空头的放弃K线
15:12 - 15:15
EN: The bears who sold this close were confident
ZH: 在这个收盘价卖出的空头很有信心
15:15 - 15:18
EN: that they could avoid a loss by scaling in higher
ZH: 他们相信自己可以通过逢高加仓避免亏损
15:18 - 15:21
EN: and getting out at the midpoint between their two entry prices.
ZH: 可以在两次入场的平均价格打平离场
15:22 - 15:28
EN: They were hoping to make a profit – get out breakeven on their first entry
ZH: 当然，他们也希望能够盈利——初始仓位打平， 加仓的部分赚钱
15:26 - 15:28
EN: and then with a profit on their second.
ZH: 当然，他们也希望能够盈利——初始仓位打平， 加仓的部分赚钱
15:29 - 15:37
EN: What this tells us is most of the bears who sold this close
ZH: 这根K线告诉我们，大多数在那个收盘价卖出、 并且逢高加仓的空头，只想打平离场
15:32 - 15:37
EN: and sold more higher decided that they just wanted to get out breakeven.
ZH: 这根K线告诉我们，大多数在那个收盘价卖出、 并且逢高加仓的空头，只想打平离场
15:37 - 15:40
EN: You can see we did not get below that close.
ZH: 可以看到，它没有能够跌破那个收盘价
15:40 - 15:44
EN: In fact, we only got to within 2 ticks of that close, and that tells me
ZH: 是市场，距离那个收盘价只有2 ticks
15:44 - 15:51
EN: that there were a lot of buyers somewhere in the midpoint
ZH: 这说明在空头两个入场价格中间的某个地方，有很多的买盘
15:47 - 15:51
EN: between these two locations where bears would sell.
ZH: 这说明在空头两个入场价格中间的某个地方，有很多的买盘
15:51 - 15:55
EN: In other words, the bears were so eager to get out avoiding a loss
ZH: 换句话说，空头非常急切地想要避免亏损
15:55 - 15:58
EN: that they gave up on the idea of getting a profit,
ZH: 他们放弃了赚钱的目标（注：不亏钱就满足了）
15:58 - 16:02
EN: and the bears were buying so aggressively, we got this.
ZH: 空头急切地买入回补，形成了这个大阳线
16:02 - 16:05
EN: And this is the final bears giving up.
ZH: 最后的空头也都放弃了
16:05 - 16:11
EN: The bears who tried to get out at this close, they see it got to
ZH: 那些尝试在这个收盘价离场的空头， 他们看到再跌几个ticks就可以成交了
16:09 - 16:12
EN: within a couple ticks of their limit order and started to reverse up quickly,
ZH: 那些尝试在这个收盘价离场的空头， 他们看到再跌几个ticks就可以成交了 但突然大幅反转上涨 （注：从希望到绝望）
16:12 - 16:16
EN: and they just bought at the market, trying to reduce their loss.
ZH: 于是他们只能市价买入，避免亏损扩大
16:24 - 16:27
EN: This tells us that the bears were not trying to get out with a profit.
ZH: 这说明空头的目标不再是盈利，
16:27 - 16:30
EN: They were simply trying to avoid a loss by scaling in
ZH: 他们只是通过加仓来避免亏损
16:36 - 16:39
EN: - the bears who were trying to get out back at that low close,
ZH: ——那些想要在最低收盘价离场的空头
16:39 - 16:45
EN: once they saw the market start to reverse up 2 ticks
ZH: 看到市场在距离目标位只有2个ticks的情况下反转上涨， 他们只能止损离场
16:42 - 16:45
EN: above their limit order to get out at that low close.
ZH: 看到市场在距离目标位只有2个ticks的情况下反转上涨， 他们只能止损离场
16:46 - 16:50
EN: The bulls understood what was going on and they knew the bears were trapped,
ZH: 多头明白发生了什么，他们知道空头被套牢了
16:50 - 16:54
EN: and when it started to reverse up the bulls started to buy aggressively.
ZH: 当市场开始反转上涨时，多头开始激进地买入
Slide 012
Time: 17:00
Bilingual Transcript
17:02 - 17:05
EN: We have a Trading Range and a bear leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 震荡区间，它是区间内的下跌波段
17:05 - 17:08
EN: Here, we have 3 consecutive bear bars.
ZH: 这里，有连续3根阴线
17:08 - 17:12
EN: We’re getting a strong breakout and follow-through
ZH: 强势地跌破了区间的下沿，而且跌破之后还有跟随
17:11 - 17:12
EN: below the bottom of the range.
ZH: 强势地跌破了区间的下沿，而且跌破之后还有跟随
17:12 - 17:14
EN: We have a spike, pullback, channel.
ZH: 左边是急速上涨、回调、变成通道
17:14 - 17:17
EN: We’re also getting a breakout below the bottom of the channel.
ZH: 这里也跌破了上涨通道的下沿
17:18 - 17:23
EN: It’s a Sell The Close selloff; the odds are we’re going to go lower.
ZH: 这是卖收盘的下降趋势，继续下跌的概率很大
17:23 - 17:31
EN: There’s not a guarantee that we’ll go lower, but given this context
ZH: 在这样的背景下，60%的概率会继续下跌
17:26 - 17:31
EN: and 3 consecutive bear bars, 60% chance we’re going lower.
ZH: 在这样的背景下，60%的概率会继续下跌
17:31 - 17:34
EN: That means 40% chance we will not go lower.
ZH: 也就是说，有40%的概率不会下跌
17:38 - 17:42
EN: Once you get a decent bear bar and a second consecutive bear bar,
ZH: 一旦出现这样漂亮的大阴线，连续的阴线
17:42 - 17:50
EN: the market’s Always In Short, and that means the probability is we’ll go
ZH: 市场就进入了单边下跌， 这意味着后续的跌幅至少能让空头做一笔剥头皮交易
17:46 - 17:50
EN: at least lower enough for the bears to make a profit.
ZH: 市场就进入了单边下跌， 这意味着后续的跌幅至少能让空头做一笔剥头皮交易
17:56 - 17:58
EN: Bears will start to sell closes.
ZH: 空头开始卖收盘
17:58 - 18:01
EN: They’ll sell that close, they’ll sell this close,
ZH: 在它的收盘卖出，在它的收盘卖出
18:01 - 18:05
EN: and this is a breakout to a new low in the Trading Range.
ZH: 因为跌破了区间底部，
18:05 - 18:09
EN: Most of the bears would put their stop above the top of this final Sell Climax.
ZH: 很多空头会把止损放在这个起跌点的上方
Slide 013
Time: 18:15
Bilingual Transcript
18:19 - 18:24
EN: The first target that I always consider when I see a breakout like this
ZH: 当我看到这样的突破时，我考虑的第1个目标
18:24 - 18:29
EN: is a Measured Move down based upon the bodies – the open of the first bar
ZH: 一定是基于突破高度的MM—— 从第1根K线的开盘价
18:29 - 18:32
EN: to the close of the final bar, expecting a Measured Move down.
ZH: 到最后一根K线的收盘价，吧这段高度往下翻一倍
18:32 - 18:36
EN: That’s also at a support level, so there’s another magnet.
ZH: 这里有另一个支撑位，所以也是一个磁铁
18:36 - 18:37
EN: Another reason to get down there.
ZH: 这是另一个继续下跌到那里的理由
18:39 - 18:46
EN: At the moment this bar closed, there was a 60% chance
ZH: 在这根K线收盘时，60%的概率，市场会先下跌到那里， 而不是先上涨打掉止损
18:43 - 18:46
EN: the market would get here before it got here.
ZH: 在这根K线收盘时，60%的概率，市场会先下跌到那里， 而不是先上涨打掉止损
18:47 - 18:49
EN: The reward is equal to the risk.
ZH: 利润等于风险
18:49 - 18:53
EN: 60% chance we get to the reward before the risk,
ZH: 有60%的概率赚到利润，而不是被止损
18:53 - 18:56
EN: and therefore the Trader’s Equation is positive.
ZH: 所以数学期望大于0
18:58 - 19:03
EN: We had an attempt at a Higher Low here and we broke strongly below it.
ZH: 这里多头尝试形成更高的低点，但被强势地跌破了
19:03 - 19:08
EN: Another Measured Move projection is based upon the height of this bear leg.
ZH: 另一个MM目标位是把这段下跌的高度往下翻一倍
19:08 - 19:11
EN: The bulls hoped it was going to lead to a second leg up.
ZH: 多头希望有第2段上涨
19:11 - 19:15
EN: Instead, we got a bear breakout below what they thought was a bull flag.
ZH: 然而，他们所认为的牛旗被向下跌破了
19:18 - 19:22
EN: Again, bears will sell closes, looking for a test of support
ZH: 空头在阴线的收盘卖出，预期测试目标位
19:22 - 19:25
EN: - here, this Measured Move, or the bottom of the bull trend.
ZH: ——这个MM目标位，或者上涨趋势的起涨点
Slide 014
Time: 19:30
Bilingual Transcript
19:30 - 19:34
EN: I began by talking about final trend bars.
ZH: 这节课的开始，我讲了最后一根趋势K线
19:34 - 19:36
EN: Every trend, after you see it reverse,
ZH: 每个趋势，在你看到它反转之后
19:36 - 19:39
EN: had a final trend bar, and it’s important.
ZH: 都能找到最后一根趋势K线，它很重要
19:39 - 19:44
EN: Traders are buying closes in bull trends, selling closes in bear trends,
ZH: 交易者在上涨趋势中买收盘，在下降趋势中卖收盘
19:44 - 19:46
EN: and if they get trapped they have to give up.
ZH: 如果被套牢了，他们只能放弃
19:47 - 19:55
EN: If the market’s in a bull trend and the bulls decide that it’s disappointing,
ZH: 如果在上涨趋势中，追涨的多头对跟随感到失望， 他们想要离场
19:52 - 19:55
EN: the follow-through is disappointing, they try to get out,
ZH: 如果在上涨趋势中，追涨的多头对跟随感到失望， 他们想要离场
19:55 - 19:58
EN: and if enough of them give up all at the same time,
ZH: 如果有足够多的多头同时放弃，
19:58 - 20:00
EN: you get a bear trend bar, which is a Give-up Bar.
ZH: 就会出现一根大阴线，也就是放弃K线
20:00 - 20:03
EN: And the opposite is true at the bottom of a bear trend.
ZH: 下降趋势中也是一样
20:03 - 20:07
EN: If the bears are selling and then they see something that disappoints them,
ZH: 如果空头卖出之后，看到了令人失望的跟随
20:08 - 20:11
EN: a lot of them will suddenly give up and you’ll get a bull trend bar.
ZH: 很多人突然放弃，就会出现一根大阳线
20:12 - 20:16
EN: And I finished up by talking about strong bear breakouts,
ZH: 最后我讲到了强势的空头突破
20:16 - 20:20
EN: and I’ll continue the discussion that I began at the end of this video.
ZH: 下节课我会继续讲这个话题
20:24 - 20:25
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
20:25 - 20:27
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课
20:27 - 20:32
EN: This is the third of five videos on entering late in trends.
ZH: 在趋势后期入场的第3节课，就先讲到这里