al-brooks-course
46B - Trading Broad Bear Channels
Raw transcript and slide notes for 46B - Trading Broad Bear Channels.
Overview
- Slides: 17
- Transcript segments: 372
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:09
EN: This is the second of five videos on trading Broad Bear Channels.
ZH: 这是如何交易宽下降通道的第2节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:12
Bilingual Transcript
00:13 - 00:16
EN: Channels, when they’re broad, usually last at least a few days.
ZH: 如果是很宽的通道，通常至少会持续几天
00:16 - 00:18
EN: So if you’re trading on a 5-minute chart,
ZH: 如果看5分钟K线的话
00:18 - 00:22
EN: that means they’ll last at least 200 or 300 bars.
ZH: 它们会持续200到300根K线
00:23 - 00:26
EN: As with all bear trends, reversals are common, but most will fail.
ZH: 与所有下降趋势一样，会有很多反转上涨的尝试，但大多数都会失败
00:28 - 00:35
EN: It’s always good to diagnose as early as you can
ZH: 尽早判断出宽下降通道是有帮助的， 可以让你用合适的策略来进行交易
00:30 - 00:35
EN: so that you can begin trading appropriately
ZH: 尽早判断出宽下降通道是有帮助的， 可以让你用合适的策略来进行交易
00:33 - 00:35
EN: for the chart that’s in front of you.
ZH: 尽早判断出宽下降通道是有帮助的， 可以让你用合适的策略来进行交易
Slide 002
Time: 00:36
Bilingual Transcript
00:38 - 00:42
EN: This is 9 days in the Emini, and it’s in a Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 这是标普股指期货，持续了9天的宽下降通道
00:42 - 00:44
EN: It’s in a bear trend.
ZH: 显然是下降趋势
00:44 - 00:47
EN: Starts in the upper left, ends in the lower right,
ZH: 从左上角，跌到右下角
00:47 - 00:51
EN: and it has pullbacks that are lasting lots of bars
ZH: 反弹持续了很多根K线
00:51 - 00:54
EN: and covering a lot of points, and therefore the channel is broad.
ZH: 幅度也很大，因此通道很宽
01:01 - 01:04
EN: If you’re trading a 5-minute chart, you’re not going to be seeing this.
ZH: 如果你在5分钟图上交易，没必要看那么多K线
01:04 - 01:08
EN: You’re only going to be looking at 1 day or maybe 2 days’ worth of bars.
ZH: 只需要看一两天的5分钟K线就可以了
01:08 - 01:16
EN: However, if you do step back and use a bar chart
ZH: 然而，如果疯狂地缩小K线图， 你就可以看到那么多K线
01:11 - 01:16
EN: and compress the bars together and you can look at a lot of bars like this,
ZH: 然而，如果疯狂地缩小K线图， 你就可以看到那么多K线
01:16 - 01:18
EN: you can see that in fact the market’s in a Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 然后发现市场实际上处于宽下降通道
01:19 - 01:22
EN: As a day trader, that’s not all that important
ZH: 对日内交易者而言，这并不是那么重要
01:23 - 01:26
EN: - and if you’re going to be looking at this many bars,
ZH: 如果你想看这么大的行情结构
01:26 - 01:28
EN: it’s better not to be trading the 5-minute chart.
ZH: 那么最好不要看5分钟图来交易
01:28 - 01:30
EN: It’s better to be trading a higher timeframe chart,
ZH: 最好在更高的时间周期
01:30 - 01:33
EN: like a 15-minute or a 60-minute chart.
ZH: 比如在15分钟或60分钟图上交易
01:38 - 01:41
EN: It’s a bear trend, and therefore traders should look to sell,
ZH: 这是一个下降趋势，因此交易者应该做空
01:41 - 01:45
EN: and they certainly should be looking to sell reversals down from rallies.
ZH: 尤其应该在反弹时逢高做空
Slide 003
Time: 01:50
Bilingual Transcript
01:53 - 01:57
EN: If you do look at a 60-minute chart or a 15-minute chart
ZH: 如果看60分钟或15分钟K线图
01:57 - 02:01
EN: - let’s say you’re over here – you’ll be able to see that the market
ZH: ——假设在这个地方—— 你能够发现市场处于宽下降通道
02:00 - 02:11
EN: is in a Broad Bear Channel, and therefore in general
ZH: ——假设在这个地方—— 你能够发现市场处于宽下降通道 所以做空往往会更好一些， 因为下跌波段比上涨波段更大
02:04 - 02:11
EN: it’ll be easier to make money selling because the legs down
ZH: 所以做空往往会更好一些， 因为下跌波段比上涨波段更大
02:08 - 02:11
EN: in general are bigger than the legs up.
ZH: 所以做空往往会更好一些， 因为下跌波段比上涨波段更大
02:16 - 02:20
EN: My general approach is if the market’s in a Broad Bear Channel,
ZH: 通常我的做法是：如果市场处于宽下降通道
02:20 - 02:24
EN: look to sell a pullback instead of selling a breakout to a new low.
ZH: 我会在反弹时卖出做空，而不是在创新低时追空
02:24 - 02:28
EN: I look to sell a pullback that retraces about half of the prior leg down.
ZH: 我会在反弹到左边下跌波段一半附近的时候卖出做空
02:28 - 02:32
EN: So you’re looking to sell somewhere in the middle third of the prior leg down.
ZH: 也就是在反弹到左边下跌波段中间三分之一时卖出做空
02:34 - 02:40
EN: Also, you want to be selling reversals down
ZH: 此外，当价格从次要高点上方反转下跌的时候，可以入场做空
02:37 - 02:40
EN: from breakouts above minor Lower Highs.
ZH: 此外，当价格从次要高点上方反转下跌的时候，可以入场做空
02:41 - 02:46
EN: When the market’s in a Broad Bear Channel, it’s forming major Lower Highs
ZH: 当市场处于宽下降通道时，重要的高点不断降低——
02:46 - 02:49
EN: where there are strong breakouts to new lows.
ZH: 强势下跌创新低
02:50 - 02:56
EN: That makes the high before it major, and as long as the market continues
ZH: 那么这个起跌点就变成了重要的高点 只要它们一个比一个低，下降趋势就仍然保持完好
02:53 - 02:56
EN: to make major Lower Highs, the market’s in a bear trend.
ZH: 只要它们一个比一个低，下降趋势就仍然保持完好
02:57 - 03:00
EN: This is probably a major Lower High here or here.
ZH: 这段下跌之后，它或者它就是重要的高点
03:00 - 03:03
EN: Sometimes you get a reversal above the major Lower High,
ZH: 如果价格突破了前期重要的高点
03:03 - 03:07
EN: and at this point the market’s either in a Trading Range or in a bull trend.
ZH: 那么这个时候市场要么处于震荡区间，要么甚至处于上涨趋势
03:07 - 03:11
EN: However, if it reverses down quickly enough and strongly enough,
ZH: 然而，如果价格迅速并强势地反转下跌
03:11 - 03:13
EN: the market again becomes Always In Short
ZH: 使得市场再次进入单边下跌
03:13 - 03:17
EN: and then is either in a Trading Range or a bear trend.
ZH: 那么此时要么是震荡区间，要么回到了下降趋势
03:18 - 03:26
EN: You can clearly see that even though this rally went
ZH: 可以清楚地看到，尽管这个反弹超过了前期的重要高点， 也只是让下降通道变得更宽
03:21 - 03:26
EN: above a major Lower High here, it simply made a broader channel.
ZH: 可以清楚地看到，尽管这个反弹超过了前期的重要高点， 也只是让下降通道变得更宽
03:26 - 03:31
EN: It’s still a Broad Bear Channel, even though briefly it looked
ZH: 这仍然是一个宽下降通道，尽管一度看起来像是要反转上涨
03:30 - 03:31
EN: like it might be reversing.
ZH: 这仍然是一个宽下降通道，尽管一度看起来像是要反转上涨
03:38 - 03:47
EN: If you are using a higher timeframe chart, like a 15-minute chart
ZH: 如果根据更高的时间周期交易，比如15分钟或60分钟图， 有的交易者也会在5分钟图上寻找提前入场的机会
03:41 - 03:47
EN: or a 60-minute chart, some traders will put up a 5-minute chart
ZH: 如果根据更高的时间周期交易，比如15分钟或60分钟图， 有的交易者也会在5分钟图上寻找提前入场的机会
03:45 - 03:47
EN: occasionally to find earlier entries.
ZH: 如果根据更高的时间周期交易，比如15分钟或60分钟图， 有的交易者也会在5分钟图上寻找提前入场的机会
03:47 - 03:57
EN: The bars on the 5-minute chart are smaller, and therefore you can enter sooner
ZH: 5分钟图上的K线比较小，因此可以更早入场，获得更好的盈亏比
03:52 - 03:57
EN: than on a 60-minute chart, where each bar is made up of twelve 5-minute bars.
ZH: 5分钟图上的K线比较小，因此可以更早入场，获得更好的盈亏比
Slide 004
Time: 04:00
Bilingual Transcript
04:04 - 04:07
EN: A Broad Bear Channel spends a lot of time in a Trading Range,
ZH: 宽下降通道里大部分时间属于震荡区间
04:07 - 04:09
EN: and when it’s in a Trading Range like this,
ZH: 看到这样的震荡区间
04:09 - 04:12
EN: you don’t know if the bear trend will resume
ZH: 你不知道下降趋势会不会继续
04:12 - 04:16
EN: or if the bull trend will reverse up from a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 还是说多头会制造低点抬高的大反转
04:16 - 04:20
EN: When it’s in a Trading Range here for over 200 bars,
ZH: 看到这样持续了200根K线的震荡区间时，
04:20 - 04:22
EN: you trade it like a Trading Range.
ZH: 就按照震荡的方法交易
04:22 - 04:24
EN: You look to buy low, you sell high, and you scalp.
ZH: 寻找逢低买入、逢高做空的剥头皮机会
04:27 - 04:30
EN: If you want, since it’s still in a Broad Bear Channel,
ZH: 由于它仍然处于宽下降通道
04:30 - 04:31
EN: you could also swing trade.
ZH: 你也可以做波段交易
04:36 - 04:37
EN: Let’s say you sell here.
ZH: 假设你在这里卖出做空
04:37 - 04:43
EN: This is the top of a very strong selloff; therefore, this is a major Lower High,
ZH: 它是下跌波段的起跌点，所以是重要的高点
04:43 - 04:47
EN: and traders will place their stop just above that high.
ZH: 空头会把止损放在它的上方
04:47 - 04:53
EN: If you’re willing to take a chance that a trend
ZH: 如果你押注下降趋势会持续好几天， 可以把止损放在这里
04:50 - 04:53
EN: will last several days, this is where you put your stop.
ZH: 如果你押注下降趋势会持续好几天， 可以把止损放在这里
04:53 - 04:55
EN: If you’re trading a 5-minute chart,
ZH: 如果你在5分钟K线图上交易
04:55 - 04:58
EN: you’re probably not going to sell here and put a stop up here.
ZH: 在这里做空之后，没必要把止损放得那么远
04:58 - 05:02
EN: But if you’re trading a 15-minute chart or a 60-minute chart and this looks
ZH: 但如果你看15分钟或60分钟图交易
05:02 - 05:06
EN: like a reasonable sell, you might be willing to hold positions overnight
ZH: 这是一个合理的做空入场点，并且你愿意持仓过夜
05:06 - 05:11
EN: - in which case you will use a stop above the top
ZH: 那么你可以把止损放在这个重要高点的上方
05:08 - 05:11
EN: of the most recent major Lower High.
ZH: 那么你可以把止损放在这个重要高点的上方
05:15 - 05:18
EN: Alternatively, you can simply look to sell every day.
ZH: 或者，你可以每天都找机会做空
05:18 - 05:22
EN: If you think the market’s trending down, you can expect rallies to fail,
ZH: 如果你认为整体是下降趋势，预期反转上涨的尝试会失败
05:22 - 05:27
EN: and at the start of every day you look for a rally
ZH: 那么可以每天等待反弹的时候，逢高去卖出做空
05:24 - 05:27
EN: and look to sell it, or look for a pullback.
ZH: 那么可以每天等待反弹的时候，逢高去卖出做空
05:27 - 05:29
EN: Here we have a gap down and a pullback.
ZH: 比如这一天跳空低开，然后反弹
05:29 - 05:30
EN: Look to sell it.
ZH: 找机会做空
05:30 - 05:31
EN: A rally, sell it.
ZH: 反弹，做空
05:31 - 05:37
EN: A gap up, possibly the start of a bull trend, but it’s still below the top
ZH: 跳空高开，像是要变成上涨趋势，
05:37 - 05:44
EN: of this entire channel, and therefore it’s still possibly part
ZH: 但还没突破整个通道的趋势线 因此仍然可能是下降通道的一部分， 尽管略微突破了前期的重要高点
05:41 - 05:44
EN: of a bear channel even though it’s above these major Lower Highs.
ZH: 因此仍然可能是下降通道的一部分， 尽管略微突破了前期的重要高点
05:44 - 05:50
EN: So traders will sell reversals down, taking a chance that we will not get
ZH: 空头会在反转下跌时做空， 押注不会继续突破这些高点或那个高点
05:49 - 05:50
EN: above these highs or above that high.
ZH: 空头会在反转下跌时做空， 押注不会继续突破这些高点或那个高点
05:55 - 06:04
EN: If you’re day trading on a 5-minute chart, you’re going to be exiting
ZH: 如果你在5分钟图上做日内交易 你可以在收盘前离场， 或者在价格从前期低点下方反转上涨的时候离场
05:59 - 06:04
EN: at the end of the day or you’ll be exiting on a reversal up from a prior low.
ZH: 你可以在收盘前离场， 或者在价格从前期低点下方反转上涨的时候离场
06:07 - 06:12
EN: This is the same 9 day stretch, but it’s using a 60-minute chart.
ZH: 这也是刚才那9天的行情，是60分钟图
Slide 005
Time: 06:10
Bilingual Transcript
06:12 - 06:16
EN: You can see the channel down is fairly tight, pullbacks just lasting a few bars.
ZH: 可以看到，下降通道很窄，反弹只持续几根K线
06:16 - 06:18
EN: The bulls tried to get a reversal here,
ZH: 多头尝试在这里反转
06:18 - 06:23
EN: but it failed and somewhere in here it went Always In Short again.
ZH: 但失败了，到了这里又回到单边下跌
06:26 - 06:29
EN: Through here, it clearly is a Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 这段下跌，是比较窄的下降通道 （注：看起来不像，因为每天都跳空低开，实际上反弹的幅度很小）
06:30 - 06:31
EN: First reversal up.
ZH: 第1次反转上涨
06:31 - 06:33
EN: Even though it’s big, it’s still minor,
ZH: 尽管幅度很大，但仍然只是小反转
06:33 - 06:36
EN: and that means the odds are it’ll test down.
ZH: 也就是说大概率会跌回到前期低点
06:39 - 06:43
EN: Because it’s in a bear trend and the channel is tight,
ZH: 由于是下降趋势，而且通道很窄
06:43 - 06:49
EN: traders should only look to sell, and any time there’s a reversal
ZH: 所以交易者应该只考虑做空； 每次反弹的时候，空头就卖出，押注下降趋势恢复
06:46 - 06:49
EN: they’ll look to sell a resumption of the trend back down.
ZH: 所以交易者应该只考虑做空； 每次反弹的时候，空头就卖出，押注下降趋势恢复
06:50 - 06:55
EN: They’ll assume that the reversals are all minor
ZH: 他们会假设所有反转都是小反转，且窄通道会一直持续
06:53 - 06:55
EN: and that the channel will remain tight.
ZH: 他们会假设所有反转都是小反转，且窄通道会一直持续
07:00 - 07:04
EN: After each breakout to a new low, if the breakout’s reasonably strong,
ZH: 每次创新低之后，如果向下的跌破非常强势，
07:04 - 07:11
EN: traders will look at the high at the start of that leg down
ZH: 空头就会把那段下跌的起跌点看作是重要的高点， 然后把止损移动到它的上方
07:07 - 07:11
EN: and consider it a major Lower High, and they’ll put their stop here.
ZH: 空头就会把那段下跌的起跌点看作是重要的高点， 然后把止损移动到它的上方
07:11 - 07:16
EN: Does not matter if you sold here or here; once it does this, your stop is here.
ZH: 无论你是在这里、还是这里卖出， 一旦价格强势跌破创新低，你就可以把止损放到它的上方
07:16 - 07:17
EN: The same is true here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
07:18 - 07:21
EN: If you had a breakout here and you put your stop here and you get stopped out,
ZH: 向下跌破之后，如果你把止损放在这里，然后被打掉
07:21 - 07:24
EN: a lot of traders will sell again on a reversal down,
ZH: 很多空头会在下跌的时候再次入场做空
07:24 - 07:28
EN: a Micro Double Top, taking a chance on bear trend resumption.
ZH: 小双顶，押注下降趋势恢复
07:28 - 07:33
EN: At some point down here, you’ll conclude this Lower High is major
ZH: 跌到这里的时候，它变成了重要的高点
07:33 - 07:35
EN: and you’ll put your stop up here.
ZH: 所以把止损放在它的上方
07:40 - 07:44
EN: Market’s sideways here, and a lot of traders will trade it like a Trading Range.
ZH: 这里市场在横盘，很多交易者会按照震荡区间来交易
07:44 - 07:47
EN: They’ll look to buy low and sell high.
ZH: 他们会低买、高卖
07:48 - 07:51
EN: Since it’s still possibly a Broad Channel down,
ZH: 由于仍然处于宽下降通道
07:51 - 07:54
EN: traders can swing trade the short or scalp the short.
ZH: 交易者也可以做空，不管是波段交易还是剥头皮
07:59 - 08:06
EN: If a trader were selling down here, thinking that the market
ZH: 如果一个交易者在这里卖出做空，押注市场处于震荡区间， 他可以使用窄止损
08:03 - 08:06
EN: might be in a Trading Range, he might use a tight stop
ZH: 如果一个交易者在这里卖出做空，押注市场处于震荡区间， 他可以使用窄止损
08:06 - 08:09
EN: at the top of the Trading Range instead of all the way up here or here.
ZH: 放在区间的高点上方，而不是放在这么高的这里或这里
08:10 - 08:14
EN: If he does that, a lot of traders will look to sell a failed breakout
ZH: 如果确实使用了窄止损（然后被打掉） 很多人会在突破失败，
08:14 - 08:16
EN: or a reversal back down, especially a Micro Double Top.
ZH: 即反转下跌的时候再次卖出，尤其这里有一个小双顶
08:17 - 08:19
EN: We gapped up here, we traded down.
ZH: 跳空高开，下跌
08:19 - 08:20
EN: We went up here, we traded down.
ZH: 上涨，下跌
08:20 - 08:22
EN: We went up here again, we traded down.
ZH: 上涨，下跌
08:27 - 08:29
EN: So traders would sell a reversal down.
ZH: 所以交易者会在反转下跌时卖出
08:29 - 08:34
EN: You can call it a Double Top here and here, so twice the bulls tried
ZH: 你可以说它是双顶——这两个高点
08:34 - 08:38
EN: to break successfully above this Lower High, and they failed twice.
ZH: 多头两次尝试突破前期的高点，但都失败了
08:39 - 08:41
EN: We have a Double Top here with this.
ZH: 这个高点和它组成了双顶
08:45 - 08:49
EN: Very Tight Channel again.
ZH: 窄下降通道，一直持续到这里都很窄
08:46 - 08:49
EN: In fact, very Tight Channel all the way through here,
ZH: 窄下降通道，一直持续到这里都很窄
08:49 - 08:54
EN: so traders will sell pullbacks, expecting the pullbacks
ZH: 空头会在反弹时做空，押注反弹只持续1~3根K线
08:51 - 08:54
EN: only to last 1, 2, or 3 bars.
ZH: 空头会在反弹时做空，押注反弹只持续1~3根K线
08:54 - 08:57
EN: For example, they might sell with a limit order at the high of the prior bar,
ZH: 例如，他们可能会在前一根K线的高点挂限价卖单
08:57 - 09:03
EN: betting that any reversal up will be minor, like this or this.
ZH: 押注任何上涨都只是小反转，就像这里和这里一样
09:08 - 09:15
EN: As with all bear trends, reversals are common,
ZH: 和所有下降趋势一样，有很多反转的尝试， 而且大部分都会失败
Slide 006
Time: 09:10
Bilingual Transcript
09:11 - 09:15
EN: and again as with all bear trends, most reversals fail.
ZH: 和所有下降趋势一样，有很多反转的尝试， 而且大部分都会失败
09:15 - 09:16
EN: That’s my 80% rule.
ZH: 这就是我的80%法则
09:17 - 09:21
EN: If the market’s in a bear trend, 80% of reversal attempts will fail,
ZH: 如果市场处于下降趋势，80%反转上涨的尝试会失败
09:21 - 09:26
EN: and therefore it’s better to look
ZH: 所以最好在反转上涨时做空，而不是买入做多
09:23 - 09:26
EN: to sell the reversal attempts than to buy them.
ZH: 所以最好在反转上涨时做空，而不是买入做多
Slide 007
Time: 09:28
Bilingual Transcript
09:29 - 09:34
EN: Again, 9 days of the Emini, a 5-minute chart where the bars are all compressed.
ZH: 还是这张图，ES期货9天的行情，所有5分钟K线都被压缩到很小
09:37 - 09:41
EN: Trading Range here for 90 bars, Trading Range here for 250 bars.
ZH: 这个区间里有90根K线，这个区间里有250根K线
09:45 - 09:50
EN: Whenever there’s a Trading Range, there will be both buy and sell setups,
ZH: 震荡区间里总是同时存在做多和做空的机会
09:50 - 09:52
EN: and the bulls will look to buy reversals.
ZH: 多头想要买入押注反转
09:52 - 09:55
EN: Maybe Wedge Bottom, and here’s a strong breakout.
ZH: 也许是楔形底——价格强势反弹了
09:55 - 09:58
EN: Somewhere in here the bulls are going to conclude it’s Always In Long,
ZH: 涨到某个时刻，多头认为市场已经开始单边上涨
09:58 - 10:02
EN: and the odds are the bulls will get at least a small second leg up.
ZH: 至少会有小的第2段上涨
10:02 - 10:03
EN: The same is true here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
10:03 - 10:06
EN: You have a potential Final Flag, a bear breakout,
ZH: 有一个潜在的末端熊旗，向下跌破之后
10:06 - 10:09
EN: a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal, and pretty strong reversal up.
ZH: 有低点抬高的大反转结构，非常强势的反转上涨
10:09 - 10:12
EN: So in here the market’s Always In Long.
ZH: 此时市场在单边上涨
10:12 - 10:14
EN: Probably we’ll get at least a little bit more up.
ZH: 大概率至少还会上涨一些
10:14 - 10:16
EN: Maybe here, maybe here.
ZH: 至少回到前期高点，或者继续上涨
10:17 - 10:22
EN: Broad Bear Channel, often the market is Always In Long at least briefly.
ZH: 宽下降通道里，经常会有短暂的单边上涨行情
10:29 - 10:31
EN: Traders will look to sell a reversal down.
ZH: 空头会在反转下跌时卖出做空
10:31 - 10:33
EN: For example, here there’s a Double Top.
ZH: 例如，这里有一个双顶
10:33 - 10:37
EN: It’s a slightly Higher High Double Top, but it’s a Double Top,
ZH: 高点略微抬高的双顶
10:37 - 10:39
EN: a failed breakout above that major Lower High.
ZH: 突破前期重要高点失败
10:39 - 10:41
EN: The same is true here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
10:41 - 10:45
EN: A strong reversal up, but potentially a Double Top,
ZH: 强势的反转上涨，但可能是一个双顶
10:45 - 10:47
EN: and traders will look to sell a reversal down.
ZH: 空头会在反转下跌时做空
10:47 - 10:50
EN: They probably will not sell the first.
ZH: 他们大概率不会在第1次下跌的时候做空
10:50 - 10:52
EN: They might sell the second or third or fourth,
ZH: 但会在第2、第3、第4入场点做空
10:53 - 10:55
EN: but in any case they’ll be looking to sell a reversal down.
ZH: 总之，空头会在反转下跌时做空
10:55 - 11:00
EN: Some traders will wait until you start to get a strong breakout and then sell.
ZH: 一些空头会等看到强势的大阴线再卖出
Slide 008
Time: 11:05
Bilingual Transcript
11:07 - 11:10
EN: With all trends, the market’s constantly trying to reverse,
ZH: 任何趋势都总是在尝试反转
11:11 - 11:14
EN: but most reversals are minor and therefore fail.
ZH: 但大多数反转都是小反转，所以会失败
11:14 - 11:17
EN: They become either bear flags or Trading Ranges.
ZH: 它们变成熊旗或震荡区间
11:18 - 11:20
EN: Sometimes strong enough to become Always In Long,
ZH: 有些小反转足够强势，暂时变成单边上涨
11:20 - 11:25
EN: and that’s one of the differences between a Broad Channel
ZH: 这是宽通道和窄通道之间的一个区别
11:23 - 11:25
EN: like this and a Tight Channel like this.
ZH: 这是宽通道和窄通道之间的一个区别
11:25 - 11:31
EN: A Tight Channel like this, the pullbacks do not last long enough
ZH: 这样的窄通道里，反弹时间不够长，无法进入单边上涨
11:29 - 11:31
EN: for the market to become Always In Long.
ZH: 这样的窄通道里，反弹时间不够长，无法进入单边上涨
11:36 - 11:42
EN: Bears expect all reversal attempts to fail,
ZH: 空头押注反转的尝试失败，在恢复下跌时做空
11:39 - 11:42
EN: and they’re looking to sell reversals down.
ZH: 空头押注反转的尝试失败，在恢复下跌时做空
11:42 - 11:45
EN: A break above a prior high, they’ll sell the reversal down
ZH: 突破前期高点失败，在反转下跌时做空
11:45 - 11:49
EN: - or they’ll sell at the prior high and use a wide stop above an even Higher High.
ZH: ——或者在前期高点挂限价卖单， 然后把宽止损放在更高的重要高点上方
Slide 009
Time: 11:55
Bilingual Transcript
11:58 - 12:00
EN: All trends have inertia.
ZH: 所有趋势都有惯性
12:01 - 12:05
EN: A Broad Bear Channel is not as strong as a Tight Bear Channel,
ZH: 宽下降通道没有窄下降通道那么强
12:05 - 12:09
EN: and certainly not as strong as a breakout, but most reversal attempts will fail.
ZH: 当然更不如突破那么强，但大多是反转的尝试仍旧会失败
12:10 - 12:13
EN: Most bottom attempts will therefore fail.
ZH: 大多数筑底的尝试都会失败
12:14 - 12:17
EN: Market’s in a bear trend, so it’s constantly forming bottoms,
ZH: 市场处于下降趋势，总是会有一些底部结构
12:17 - 12:22
EN: but every reversal leads to either a bear flag and a resumption
ZH: 但每次反转的尝试要么变成熊旗，然后继续下跌
12:22 - 12:27
EN: of the bear trend or a Trading Range,
ZH: 要么变成震荡区间——震荡之后向下突破的概率仍然更大一些
12:24 - 12:27
EN: which will probably lead to a resumption of the bear trend.
ZH: 要么变成震荡区间——震荡之后向下突破的概率仍然更大一些
12:30 - 12:31
EN: The bulls see a Wedge Bottom.
ZH: 多头看到了楔形底
12:31 - 12:33
EN: They see a Double Bottom.
ZH: 看到了双底
12:33 - 12:35
EN: Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 低点抬高的大反转
12:37 - 12:39
EN: Another Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 又一个低点抬高的大反转
12:41 - 12:43
EN: Lower Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 低点降低的大反转
12:43 - 12:45
EN: An Expanding Triangle bottom.
ZH: 扩张三角形底部
12:45 - 12:47
EN: Lots of little Wedges and Triangles.
ZH: 很多小的楔形和三角形
12:49 - 12:54
EN: The bulls constantly are seeing reversals, but most reversal attempts fail.
ZH: 多头不断看到反转的机会，但大部分反转的尝试都失败了
12:54 - 12:57
EN: For example, this is a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 例如，这是低点抬高的大反转机会
12:57 - 12:59
EN: You can call it a Double Bottom.
ZH: 或者说它是双底
12:59 - 13:05
EN: But when the channel is this tight, the first reversal up
ZH: 但通道这么窄的时候， 第1次上涨大概率只是小反转，不会涨很多
13:02 - 13:05
EN: probably is minor and not going to go very far.
ZH: 但通道这么窄的时候， 第1次上涨大概率只是小反转，不会涨很多
13:12 - 13:16
EN: The bears look for the reversals to fail,
ZH: 空头会等待反转失败
13:16 - 13:19
EN: and they’ll sell on a resumption of the bear trend down.
ZH: 然后在趋势恢复下跌的时候入场做空
13:19 - 13:23
EN: They’ll look for the reversal to fail
ZH: 他们期待反转失败，期待重新下跌， 然后再次入场做空
13:21 - 13:23
EN: and start to turn down, and they’ll sell again
ZH: 他们期待反转失败，期待重新下跌， 然后再次入场做空
13:23 - 13:28
EN: - or they’ll simply hold their short position and use a wide stop.
ZH: 或者，一些空头会一直持有，使用宽止损
13:33 - 13:36
EN: The market’s starting to reverse down, reverse down, reverse down.
ZH: 在反弹之后，市场开始下跌，下跌，下跌
13:36 - 13:40
EN: Bears will sell, betting on resumption of the Broad Bear Channel
ZH: 空头会卖出做空，押注宽下降通道恢复
13:40 - 13:43
EN: - which means they’re betting that we’ll get a new low.
ZH: ——这意味着他们押注价格会跌到新低
13:44 - 13:46
EN: They’re selling up here in a Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 他们在这里卖出做空
13:46 - 13:48
EN: They’re betting that we’ll get at least a new low.
ZH: 押注至少会跌到新低
13:54 - 13:58
EN: All Broad Channels spend a lot of time in Trading Ranges.
ZH: 所有宽通道大部分时间都在震荡
Slide 010
Time: 13:55
Bilingual Transcript
13:58 - 14:02
EN: So at this point the market is in a bear trend (a Broad Bear Channel),
ZH: 此时市场处于下降趋势（宽下降通道）
14:02 - 14:06
EN: but it’s also in a Trading Range, and it’s possibly in an early bull trend.
ZH: 但也在震荡区间里，甚至可能是上涨趋势的初期
14:06 - 14:09
EN: A Higher Low Major Trend Reversal and good reversal up.
ZH: 低点抬高的大反转，价格大幅上涨
14:10 - 14:18
EN: That’s common for the market to be simultaneously in a Trading Range
ZH: 市场同时处于震荡区间、上涨趋势的初期、 且同时处于下降趋势，是很常见的
14:13 - 14:18
EN: and an early bull trend and a continuation of the bear trend.
ZH: 市场同时处于震荡区间、上涨趋势的初期、 且同时处于下降趋势，是很常见的
14:24 - 14:28
EN: As soon as you break above any kind of a major Lower High
ZH: 一旦突破某个重要的高点
14:28 - 14:30
EN: - this is not all that major; this is more major
ZH: ——这个高点不是很重要；这个更重要
14:31 - 14:34
EN: - but in any case, as soon as the market breaks above a major Lower High
ZH: 总之，一旦市场突破了前期的重要高点
14:34 - 14:38
EN: like here or here, the market is no longer in a bear trend.
ZH: 比如这里或这里，市场就不再处于下降趋势了
14:38 - 14:42
EN: At that moment it’s in either a bull trend or a Trading Range.
ZH: 此时它要么处于上涨趋势，要么处于震荡区间
14:42 - 14:51
EN: However, if it reverses down strongly, it’s then back to being in a bear trend
ZH: 然而，如果价格强势反转下跌，那么它又回到了下降趋势， 或震荡区间，上涨趋势结束
14:47 - 14:51
EN: or a Trading Range, and the bull trend is over.
ZH: 然而，如果价格强势反转下跌，那么它又回到了下降趋势， 或震荡区间，上涨趋势结束
15:02 - 15:04
EN: Whenever the market is in a bear trend,
ZH: 每当市场处于下降趋势时，
15:04 - 15:10
EN: it’s regularly having strong reversals up that break
ZH: 经常会有强势的反转上涨，突破下降趋势线
15:07 - 15:10
EN: above the top of the channel, which is the bear trend line,
ZH: 经常会有强势的反转上涨，突破下降趋势线
15:10 - 15:16
EN: and then it reverses down again and you can draw a new trend line,
ZH: 然后再次恢复下跌，此时可以画一条新的趋势线
15:16 - 15:19
EN: and the channel will get flatter and broader as time goes on.
ZH: 随着时间的推移，通道会变得更平、更宽
15:22 - 15:25
EN: Market’s starting to reverse down, so we have two points.
ZH: 市场开始反转下跌，所以连接这两个点
15:25 - 15:31
EN: You can draw a new line, but this line is flatter than that line,
ZH: 画出新的趋势线，比旧趋势线更平坦，且通道变得更宽
15:28 - 15:31
EN: and the channel is becoming broader.
ZH: 画出新的趋势线，比旧趋势线更平坦，且通道变得更宽
15:31 - 15:34
EN: So it’s pretty tight here, but now it’s a broader channel.
ZH: 之前这里很窄，现在变宽了
15:36 - 15:38
EN: The market rallied here, reversed down.
ZH: 反弹到这里，恢复下跌
15:38 - 15:40
EN: You can draw a new line.
ZH: 可以画一条新的线
15:40 - 15:41
EN: Watch how the market behaves.
ZH: 观察市场的行为
15:42 - 15:44
EN: Broke above the line here, reversed down.
ZH: 这里突破了这条线，恢复下跌
15:44 - 15:45
EN: You can draw a new line.
ZH: 可以画一条新的线
15:45 - 15:47
EN: You can repeat the process.
ZH: 重复这个过程
15:47 - 15:49
EN: Every time there’s a trend line break,
ZH: 每次有趋势线被突破
15:49 - 15:52
EN: you draw a new trend line, and the lines become flatter.
ZH: 就可以画一条新的趋势线，趋势线变得越来越平
15:52 - 15:55
EN: The trend becomes weaker and usually broader.
ZH: 趋势变得更弱，通常也更宽
15:55 - 15:57
EN: Eventually it transitions into a Trading Range.
ZH: 最终它过渡到震荡区间
Slide 011
Time: 16:15
Bilingual Transcript
16:15 - 16:18
EN: Every Broad Channel contains Trading Ranges,
ZH: 每个宽通道都包含震荡区间
16:18 - 16:20
EN: and some of them last a lot of bars.
ZH: 有些区间持续很多K线
16:20 - 16:24
EN: On the 5-minute chart, this one is lasting maybe 300 bars.
ZH: 在5分钟K线图上，这个区间持续了大约300根K线
16:28 - 16:36
EN: When the market’s in a Trading Range, it often goes above highs
ZH: 在震荡区间里，经常会略微突破前期高点，然后立刻反转下跌； 也会略微跌破前期低点，然后立刻反转上涨
16:32 - 16:36
EN: and then reverses down, and it goes below lows and then reverses up.
ZH: 在震荡区间里，经常会略微突破前期高点，然后立刻反转下跌； 也会略微跌破前期低点，然后立刻反转上涨
16:39 - 16:43
EN: Sometimes it even goes above relatively major highs,
ZH: 有时它甚至会突破重要的高点
16:43 - 16:46
EN: but as long as it reverses down, traders will continue to sell,
ZH: 但只要价格很快反转下跌，交易者就会再次卖出做空
16:46 - 16:52
EN: betting that the bear trend will resume and be a flatter, broader bear trend.
ZH: 押注下降趋势恢复，变成更平、更宽的下降通道
16:57 - 16:59
EN: Strong reversal up, strong reversal up.
ZH: 强势的反转上涨，反转上涨
16:59 - 17:07
EN: If you’re day trading the 5-minute chart, the market’s Always In Long
ZH: 如果你在5分钟K线图上做日内交易， 这几个小时都在单边上涨，因此做多是合理的
17:03 - 17:07
EN: for these several hours, and it’s reasonable to be long.
ZH: 如果你在5分钟K线图上做日内交易， 这几个小时都在单边上涨，因此做多是合理的
17:07 - 17:09
EN: If you’re day trading, you’re only looking at this day
ZH: 日内交易，只关注当天的价格行为
17:09 - 17:13
EN: and you have a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal and a strong reversal up.
ZH: 低点抬高的大反转，然后强势上涨
17:13 - 17:16
EN: So you’re going to be buying for a swing through here.
ZH: 所以你可以在这里买入，做波段交易
17:22 - 17:26
EN: Whenever the market’s in a Trading Range or in a Broad Channel,
ZH: 当市场处于震荡区间或宽通道中时
17:26 - 17:30
EN: 2nd Leg Traps are common, where the market rallies and has a second leg up
ZH: 第2段陷阱很常见——价格反弹，然后有第2段上涨
17:30 - 17:32
EN: and it looks like it’s breaking out into a bull trend,
ZH: 看起来像是要突破并进入上涨趋势
17:32 - 17:36
EN: but the second leg fails and the bear trend resumes.
ZH: 但突破失败，下降趋势恢复
17:42 - 17:45
EN: All bear trends need a series of Lower Highs,
ZH: 下降趋势里，重要的高点不断降低
17:45 - 17:49
EN: and breakouts above relatively minor Lower Highs are common.
ZH: 但次要的高点经常会被突破
17:49 - 17:51
EN: For example, this is a minor Lower High.
ZH: 例如，这是一个次要的高点
17:51 - 17:54
EN: The top of the bear leg is here or here.
ZH: 下跌波段的起跌点在这里，或这里
17:54 - 17:57
EN: Going above this is not enough to end the bear trend.
ZH: 突破这个高点不足以让下降趋势结束
17:57 - 18:00
EN: Going above this, this is a fairly major Lower High,
ZH: 但突破了它，它是较为重要的高点
18:00 - 18:04
EN: so a lot of traders will conclude the bear trend has ended at this point
ZH: 所以很多交易者认为下降趋势已经结束，
18:04 - 18:08
EN: and that it now has evolved into a Trading Range and possibly a bull trend.
ZH: 现在已经变成震荡区间，甚至可能是上涨趋势
18:17 - 18:19
EN: This is a breakout above a minor Lower High.
ZH: 这里突破了前期次要的高点
18:19 - 18:21
EN: Minor Lower High right here.
ZH: 这个是次要的高点
18:22 - 18:29
EN: But the truly major Lower Highs, the most important ones,
ZH: 但真正重要的高点、关键的高点，它们不应该被突破
18:26 - 18:29
EN: should continue to hold, and the rally should fail
ZH: 但真正重要的高点、关键的高点，它们不应该被突破
18:29 - 18:33
EN: and reverse down below the biggest major Lower Highs.
ZH: 价格涨到它们附近时应该反转下跌
18:38 - 18:44
EN: As with any trade, you should always try to diagnose
ZH: 任何一笔交易，你都应该尽早判断出市场目前的行为
Slide 012
Time: 18:40
Bilingual Transcript
18:41 - 18:44
EN: what the market is doing as early as you possibly can
ZH: 任何一笔交易，你都应该尽早判断出市场目前的行为
18:44 - 18:48
EN: so that you’re trading in an appropriate way for what the market is doing.
ZH: 那样你才能采用合适的交易策略
Slide 013
Time: 18:49
Bilingual Transcript
18:55 - 18:57
EN: The bears have a fairly Tight Channel here,
ZH: 这是一个很窄的下降通道
18:57 - 19:00
EN: so it’s a breakout, and pretty good follow-through bars.
ZH: 几乎就是突破，而且有很好的跟随
19:00 - 19:02
EN: The market’s Always In Short.
ZH: 市场在单边下跌
19:06 - 19:08
EN: In here it’s a Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 这里是窄下降通道
19:08 - 19:14
EN: However, the market becomes probably Always In Long here or here.
ZH: 但是到了这里、或这里，看上去是在单边上涨
19:21 - 19:22
EN: Again, same thing here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
19:23 - 19:26
EN: We’re selling off.
ZH: 下跌之后，形成了低点降低的大反转结构
19:24 - 19:26
EN: We have a Lower Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 下跌之后，形成了低点降低的大反转结构
19:26 - 19:27
EN: Pretty good reversal up.
ZH: 强势反转上涨
19:27 - 19:30
EN: The market’s probably Always In Long somewhere here,
ZH: 市场在某个时刻进入了单边上涨
19:31 - 19:37
EN: yet the highs are still above the most major prior Lower Highs,
ZH: 但价格仍然在前期重要的高点之下
19:37 - 19:43
EN: and therefore the bears still have a Broad Bear Channel
ZH: 因此，结合过去几天的行情，这仍然是一个宽下降通道
19:41 - 19:43
EN: if you look at the past several days.
ZH: 因此，结合过去几天的行情，这仍然是一个宽下降通道
19:43 - 19:48
EN: If you’re just looking at today, the bulls have a reversal
ZH: 如果只看今天，多头制造了反转，最终是震荡区间日
19:46 - 19:48
EN: that became a Trading Range day.
ZH: 如果只看今天，多头制造了反转，最终是震荡区间日
19:51 - 19:56
EN: Traders will sell reversals down because they see this entire rally
ZH: 空头会在反转下跌时做空，
19:56 - 20:00
EN: as being above a pretty major Lower High, and they’ll bet that the market
ZH: 因为整个反弹还没有超过前期重要的高点
20:00 - 20:03
EN: is either in a Trading Range or in a Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 所以现在要么是震荡区间，要么是宽下降通道
20:06 - 20:09
EN: We have a reversal down here and a reversal down here,
ZH: 反转下跌，反转下跌
20:09 - 20:15
EN: so you can draw a line across these two highs and then see
ZH: 可以把这两个高点连起来， 然后观察市场再次碰到粉色线的时候会发生什么
20:12 - 20:15
EN: what the market does when it gets to that pink line.
ZH: 然后观察市场再次碰到粉色线的时候会发生什么
20:15 - 20:18
EN: Here it went a little bit above and reversed down.
ZH: 这里它稍微突破，立刻反转下跌
20:18 - 20:21
EN: The bulls were hoping for a Higher Low and a bull trend,
ZH: 多头希望低点可以抬高，然后进入上涨趋势
20:21 - 20:25
EN: but here the bulls gave up and the bears took control again.
ZH: 但在这里多头放弃了，空头再次掌控局面
20:26 - 20:28
EN: So the market is back to Always In Short,
ZH: 市场回到单边下跌的状态
20:28 - 20:30
EN: even though it was Always In Long through here.
ZH: 尽管刚才这里是短暂的单边上涨
20:38 - 20:41
EN: Broad Bear Channels always spend a lot of time in Trading Ranges,
ZH: 宽下降通道总是花了大量的时间震荡
20:41 - 20:51
EN: and within a Trading Range there are always reasonable buy setups
ZH: 而震荡区间里总是同时存在做多和做空的机会， 市场总是同时具有上涨趋势和下降趋势的特征
20:45 - 20:51
EN: and reasonable sell setups, and the market’s always
ZH: 而震荡区间里总是同时存在做多和做空的机会， 市场总是同时具有上涨趋势和下降趋势的特征
20:48 - 20:51
EN: in a bull trend and a bear trend.
ZH: 而震荡区间里总是同时存在做多和做空的机会， 市场总是同时具有上涨趋势和下降趋势的特征
20:51 - 20:54
EN: For example, Higher Low Major Trend Reversal in a Trading Range.
ZH: 例如，震荡区间里低点抬高的大反转
20:54 - 20:57
EN: What would happen if the market kept going up like this?
ZH: 如果市场继续这样上涨，会发生什么
20:57 - 21:01
EN: You would say the bull trend began here, and therefore this is a bull trend.
ZH: 你会说上涨趋势从这里开始，因此它属于上涨趋势
21:01 - 21:03
EN: Even through here, it’s a bull trend.
ZH: 即使在这里，也仍然可能变成上涨趋势
21:03 - 21:06
EN: But it’s also still forming Lower Highs in a Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 但宽下降通道中的高点仍然在降低
21:07 - 21:10
EN: When the market is down here, where did the bear trend begin?
ZH: 当市场跌到这里时，回过头看，下降趋势从哪里开始？
21:10 - 21:11
EN: It began up here.
ZH: 它从这里就开始了
21:11 - 21:14
EN: So this is part of a bear trend as well,
ZH: 所以它也是下降趋势的一部分
21:14 - 21:15
EN: and it’s clearly part of a Trading Range.
ZH: 并且显然是震荡区间的一部分
21:16 - 21:21
EN: Bear trends need Lower Lows and Lower Highs, but a lot of times
ZH: 下降趋势需要低点和高点不断降低，
21:21 - 21:25
EN: in a bear channel you don’t get a Lower Low until the market breaks
ZH: 但很多时候，市场一直震荡，很久以后才向下跌破
21:25 - 21:31
EN: below the Trading Range, which means it can go sideways
ZH: 也就是说，市场可以一直横盘不下跌，持续100、200根K线
21:27 - 21:31
EN: without a Lower Low for 100, 200 bars.
ZH: 也就是说，市场可以一直横盘不下跌，持续100、200根K线
Slide 014
Time: 21:35
Bilingual Transcript
21:37 - 21:40
EN: In general, you need to see three pushes down
ZH: 通常来说，你需要看到3次下跌
21:40 - 21:44
EN: before you can conclude that the market’s in a Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 才能得出市场在宽下降通道中的结论
21:49 - 21:51
EN: A lot of times when you get three pushes down,
ZH: 很多时候，等你看到了3次下跌
21:51 - 21:54
EN: the market’s in a Wedge and it’s about to reverse up.
ZH: 那就已经是楔形底了，即将反转上涨
21:57 - 22:00
EN: Broad Bear Channels spend a lot of time going sideways,
ZH: 宽下降通道花了很多时间横盘
Slide 015
Time: 22:00
Bilingual Transcript
22:00 - 22:04
EN: and sideways means confusion, a Trading Range.
ZH: 横盘意味着困惑、震荡区间
22:04 - 22:09
EN: A lot of times it’s not clear if the bulls are going to win
ZH: 很多时候无法分辨到底会向上还是向下突破
22:07 - 22:09
EN: or if the bears are going to win.
ZH: 很多时候无法分辨到底会向上还是向下突破
22:09 - 22:12
EN: What traders do is they trade what is clear,
ZH: 交易者只做明确的行情
22:12 - 22:16
EN: which means they trade pieces of the legs up and down.
ZH: 也就是说，他们只做上涨或下跌波段的一部分
22:23 - 22:27
EN: Reasonably strong reversal down, totally reversing that reversal up.
ZH: 相当强势的反转下跌，完全跌掉了左边的涨幅
22:27 - 22:28
EN: Lot of bars closing near their lows.
ZH: 很多阴线收在最低
22:28 - 22:30
EN: Market’s Always In Short.
ZH: 市场在单边下跌
22:30 - 22:34
EN: Traders will sell, stop up here, looking for at least a small second leg down.
ZH: 空头卖出做空，止损放在这里， 押注至少会有小的第2段下跌
22:44 - 22:51
EN: If you want higher probability, you wait until the bears start
ZH: 如果想要更高的胜率，等看到连续的大阴线收在最低， 比如这里，然后再卖出做空
22:47 - 22:51
EN: to get consecutive big bear bars closing on their lows, and you could sell here.
ZH: 如果想要更高的胜率，等看到连续的大阴线收在最低， 比如这里，然后再卖出做空
22:52 - 22:53
EN: Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 窄下降通道
22:53 - 22:57
EN: First reversal up probably minor, which means a Trading Range.
ZH: 第1次上涨大概率只是小反转，最多变成震荡区间
Slide 016
Time: 23:00
Bilingual Transcript
23:06 - 23:10
EN: The bulls see two legs down with a lot of overlap among the bars,
ZH: 多头看到两段下跌，K线之间有很多重叠
23:10 - 23:12
EN: a lot of bars with prominent tails,
ZH: 很多都有明显的下影线
23:12 - 23:14
EN: and they’re thinking that this might be a Trading Range,
ZH: 他们认为这可能是一个震荡区间
23:14 - 23:18
EN: and therefore the reversals up might be big enough to buy.
ZH: 会有足够大的反弹，所以可以买入做多
23:18 - 23:20
EN: So two legs down – one, pullback, two.
ZH: 两段下跌——1，反弹，2
23:21 - 23:24
EN: Trading Ranges often have two-legged patterns – one, pullback, two,
ZH: 震荡区间中经常有两段式的移动——1，反弹，2
23:24 - 23:30
EN: one, pullback, two – and traders like to buy reversals up
ZH: 1，回调，2； 两段下跌之后，在反转上涨时买入
23:29 - 23:32
EN: from two legs down and sell reversals down from two legs up.
ZH: 1，回调，2； 两段下跌之后，在反转上涨时买入 两段上涨之后，在反转下跌时卖出
23:36 - 23:39
EN: If a trader did not want to take this buy because the channel is so tight,
ZH: 如果多头不想在这里买入，因为左边的通道太窄了
23:39 - 23:43
EN: he might wait for a Major Trend Reversal, and that’s what we have here.
ZH: 他可以等待一个大反转结构，也就是这里
23:43 - 23:46
EN: You can call it a little Wedge here or a bigger Wedge,
ZH: 这里有一个小楔形，也有更大的楔形——
23:46 - 23:49
EN: bear bar, and then second push, third push.
ZH: 这根阴线是第1推，第2推，第3推
23:49 - 23:52
EN: So a Wedge Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 所以是楔形底，嵌套在低点抬高的大反转结构里
23:52 - 23:54
EN: Certainly an okay buy for a swing up.
ZH: 买入做波段交易显然是合理的
24:01 - 24:05
EN: All major reversals are relatively low probability.
ZH: 所有大反转的成功概率都比较低
24:05 - 24:08
EN: 40% chance of becoming a trend.
ZH: 只有40%的概率能形成趋势
24:08 - 24:16
EN: But as long as you’re holding for a reward that is
ZH: 但只要利润是实际风险的两倍， 在这些地方买入做多，在数学上来看是合理的
24:12 - 24:16
EN: at least twice your Actual Risk, the math makes sense in taking these buys.
ZH: 但只要利润是实际风险的两倍， 在这些地方买入做多，在数学上来看是合理的
24:25 - 24:30
EN: Some traders want higher probability, and they’ll wait
ZH: 一些交易者想要更高的胜率， 他们会等看到连续三四根阳线之后，在收盘买入
24:28 - 24:30
EN: to buy the third or fourth consecutive bull close,
ZH: 他们会等看到连续三四根阳线之后，在收盘买入
24:30 - 24:33
EN: use a wide stop, and scale in if the market pulls back.
ZH: 使用较宽的初始止损，并在回调时逢低加仓
24:34 - 24:39
EN: However, with a channel as tight as this, this reversal up is probably minor.
ZH: 然而，像这样的窄通道，这里的上涨很可能只是小反转
24:39 - 24:42
EN: Yes, you’ve got a lot of bull bars closing above their midpoints.
ZH: 尽管确实有很多阳线收在一半以上
24:42 - 24:45
EN: The odds are we’ll get at least a small second leg up.
ZH: 很可能会有小的第2段上涨
24:45 - 24:50
EN: But if I see this and I’m not long, I’d rather buy a pullback.
ZH: 但我个人不会在这里追涨，我宁愿等回调再买入
24:55 - 25:00
EN: When you’re looking at Broad Channels, Broad Bear Channels,
ZH: 宽下降通道往往会持续好几天
Slide 017
Time: 24:55
Bilingual Transcript
24:58 - 25:00
EN: they typically last at least several days.
ZH: 宽下降通道往往会持续好几天
25:01 - 25:04
EN: They’re bear trends, and therefore reversals are common,
ZH: 下降趋势里经常会有反转的尝试
25:04 - 25:08
EN: and like all bear trends, most reversals fail – and therefore it’s better
ZH: 但它们大部分都会失败——
25:08 - 25:15
EN: to look to sell a rally from a reversal than to buy the rally betting
ZH: 因此最好在反弹时逢高做空， 而不是在上涨时买入，押注反转成功变成上涨趋势
25:12 - 25:15
EN: on a successful reversal into a bull trend.
ZH: 因此最好在反弹时逢高做空， 而不是在上涨时买入，押注反转成功变成上涨趋势
25:16 - 25:23
EN: As always, you should try to diagnose what’s going on
ZH: 任何交易，你应该尽早判断当前的市场周期， 这样就可以运用合适的策略去交易
25:19 - 25:23
EN: as soon as possible so that you can start trading appropriately.
ZH: 任何交易，你应该尽早判断当前的市场周期， 这样就可以运用合适的策略去交易
25:27 - 25:28
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
25:28 - 25:30
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
25:30 - 25:34
EN: This is the second of five videos on trading Broad Bear Channels.
ZH: 如何交易宽下降通道的第2节课，就先讲到这里