al-brooks-course
29E - Climaxes
Raw transcript and slide notes for 29E - Climaxes.
Overview
- Slides: 14
- Transcript segments: 380
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:09
EN: This is the fifth of five videos on climaxes.
ZH: 这是高潮5节课中的最后1节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:10
Bilingual Transcript
00:12 - 00:15
EN: I want to make an important point about climaxes
ZH: 我想讲的关于高潮的一个重点是，
00:15 - 00:19
EN: being influenced by option selling firms.
ZH: 高潮很多时候是因为大机构卖出期权造成的 （注：前排提示，新手不需要看懂这一部分）
00:19 - 00:21
EN: They’re not always entirely caused by bears.
ZH: 并不总是因为空头抛售
00:23 - 00:26
EN: Finally, I’ll talk about consecutive climaxes that fail.
ZH: 然后我会讲到失败的连续高潮
Slide 002
Time: 00:27
Bilingual Transcript
00:32 - 00:34
EN: We have a series of Sell Climaxes.
ZH: 一系列的抛售高潮
00:35 - 00:40
EN: A lot of the selling is caused by institutions
ZH: 很多机构认为市场要下跌，所以他们抛售
00:38 - 00:40
EN: believing the market is going to go down.
ZH: 很多机构认为市场要下跌，所以他们抛售
00:40 - 00:44
EN: A lot of it is caused by institutions that have long positions,
ZH: 很多机构手中有大量的股票（或商品、货币，等）
00:44 - 00:49
EN: and they think the market is going down and they’re liquidating their longs.
ZH: 当他们认为市场会下跌时，就会大量抛售手中的仓位， 导致快速下跌
00:48 - 00:49
EN: They’re selling out of longs.
ZH: 当他们认为市场会下跌时，就会大量抛售手中的仓位， 导致快速下跌
00:50 - 00:55
EN: Some institutions want to hold onto their long positions
ZH: 有些机构想要保留手中的仓位，所以就采用对冲的方法
00:53 - 00:55
EN: and they’re looking to hedge.
ZH: 有些机构想要保留手中的仓位，所以就采用对冲的方法
00:55 - 00:59
EN: And one way to do that is by selling stock or stock index futures.
ZH: 其中一种方法是做空股票或者股指期货
01:00 - 01:04
EN: Some institutions specialize in selling options.
ZH: 还有一些机构专门做期权的卖方
01:04 - 01:11
EN: For example, a lot of funds buy puts to protect their stocks against losses.
ZH: 比如，很多基金会买入看跌期权，来对冲股票下跌的风险
01:11 - 01:14
EN: If the market goes down and they’re holding a put
ZH: 如果市场下跌，而他们买入看跌期权
01:14 - 01:16
EN: - if they’re long, a put – the put will go up in value,
ZH: 看跌期权在市场下跌时会增值，
01:16 - 01:20
EN: offsetting the losses that they get from their stocks.
ZH: 这就抵消了他们在股票上的损失
01:20 - 01:23
EN: There are institutions that specialize in selling options.
ZH: 有很多机构，专门做期权的卖方
01:23 - 01:26
EN: That’s all they do, is they sell options.
ZH: 卖期权，就是他们唯一的业务
01:32 - 01:37
EN: The value of the put increases as the stock goes down
ZH: 随着股票下跌，看跌期权的价值上涨
01:37 - 01:44
EN: - or in this case, let’s say we’re talking about the SPDR or an ETF,
ZH: 这里我们主要讲的是SPY（标普指数的ETF）， 或者整个股票的大盘
01:41 - 01:44
EN: the SPY, or the stock market in general.
ZH: 这里我们主要讲的是SPY（标普指数的ETF）， 或者整个股票的大盘
01:44 - 01:48
EN: If the underlying is going down, the stock is going down,
ZH: 如果指数和股票在下跌，
01:48 - 01:50
EN: the value of the put increases.
ZH: 看跌期权的价值就会上涨
01:50 - 01:52
EN: But it’s not proportional.
ZH: 但比例不是线性的变化
01:52 - 01:57
EN: The rate of increase of the put is called the delta,
ZH: 期权随股票价格变化的速度叫做Delta （注：数学上的一阶倒数）
01:57 - 02:00
EN: and as the market falls further and further,
ZH: 当市场不断下跌的时候，
02:00 - 02:03
EN: the value of the put accelerates upward.
ZH: 看跌期权的价值会加速上涨 （注：加速度叫Gamma，即二阶导数）
02:03 - 02:06
EN: Its value increases faster than the market is falling.
ZH: 期权价值上涨的速度，比股票下跌的速度更快 （注：因为存在杠杆，但杠杆在变化，越来越大）
02:10 - 02:19
EN: And as a result, those institutions that specialize in selling puts have losses
ZH: 所以，随着市场下跌， 那些专门卖出期权的机构会越亏越多，
02:16 - 02:19
EN: that are accelerating as the market falls.
ZH: 所以，随着市场下跌， 那些专门卖出期权的机构会越亏越多，
02:23 - 02:27
EN: Gamma is a measure of how fast the delta is changing.
ZH: Delta变化的速度被称为Gamma
02:27 - 02:34
EN: You don’t need to know this, but as the market’s falling,
ZH: 新手不需要了解这一点，但是要知道， 随着市场下跌，Delta正在加速上涨
02:31 - 02:34
EN: what’s happening is the delta is increasing rapidly.
ZH: 新手不需要了解这一点，但是要知道， 随着市场下跌，Delta正在加速上涨
02:34 - 02:39
EN: The puts are increasingly rapidly, faster than the market is falling.
ZH: 看跌期权价值上涨的速度，超过了市场下跌的速度
02:40 - 02:44
EN: The result is those option-selling firms are getting a lot of losses.
ZH: 所以那些卖出看跌期权的机构损失惨重
02:44 - 02:48
EN: Those puts that they sold are rapidly increasing in value.
ZH: 他们卖出（做空）的看跌期权，正在急速上涨
02:48 - 02:51
EN: Those option firms don’t want to lose money.
ZH: 但是这些机构不愿意亏钱（注：这些通常都是做市商， 他们的策略是不管涨跌，都可以赚到钱）
02:51 - 02:54
EN: They can’t buy back their puts; they don’t have control over that.
ZH: 他们不能买回看跌期权，因为期权的卖方只有义务，没有权利 （注：这里新手了解以下就可以了）
02:55 - 03:00
EN: What they can do instead is sell the underlying
ZH: 所以他们只能做空股票和期货，通过做空的盈利， 来抵消卖出看跌期权的亏损
02:58 - 03:00
EN: to offset the losses in the puts.
ZH: 所以他们只能做空股票和期货，通过做空的盈利， 来抵消卖出看跌期权的亏损
03:01 - 03:05
EN: As the market’s falling, those option-selling firms are losing money.
ZH: 随着市场下跌，看跌期权的卖方在亏损
03:05 - 03:08
EN: The puts are increasing in value.
ZH: 看跌期权在不断增值
03:08 - 03:09
EN: They sold those puts.
ZH: 而这些机构是看跌期权的卖方
03:09 - 03:11
EN: The firms that bought those puts are making money.
ZH: 买方当然在赚钱，
03:12 - 03:16
EN: The option-selling firms need to do something to control their losses.
ZH: 但卖方需要通过对冲的手段，来弥补期权上的亏损
03:16 - 03:19
EN: Let’s say this is the SPDR or the stock market.
ZH: 假如这是SPY，或者某只股票
03:19 - 03:24
EN: What those firms will do is sell stock or sell the SPDR or sell the underlying,
ZH: 那么那些机构就会做空股票，做空SPY，
03:24 - 03:32
EN: and the result is those option-selling firms are trying
ZH: 当市场下跌，他们通过做空获得的利润， 来弥补卖出看跌期权带来的亏损
03:29 - 03:32
EN: to reduce their losses by selling the underlying.
ZH: 当市场下跌，他们通过做空获得的利润， 来弥补卖出看跌期权带来的亏损
03:33 - 03:35
EN: If they sold puts against the stock market
ZH: 如果他们卖出看跌期权，
03:35 - 03:37
EN: - there are many different ways to do that
ZH: 有很多种对冲风险的方法
03:37 - 03:42
EN: - they need to sell stock to offset the losses
ZH: 比如可以做空股票赚钱，来弥补看跌期权的亏损
03:40 - 03:42
EN: that they’re getting with their puts.
ZH: 比如可以做空股票赚钱，来弥补看跌期权的亏损
03:43 - 03:45
EN: When you start to get Sell Climaxes,
ZH: 当开始出现抛售高潮的时候
03:45 - 03:55
EN: a lot of that is due to option-selling firms selling the underlying,
ZH: 很大一部分原因是因为那些卖出看跌期权的机构， 通过大量做空股票，来对冲自己的风险
03:50 - 03:55
EN: selling the stock market, to try to offset the losses
ZH: 很大一部分原因是因为那些卖出看跌期权的机构， 通过大量做空股票，来对冲自己的风险
03:53 - 03:55
EN: that they’re getting in their puts.
ZH: 很大一部分原因是因为那些卖出看跌期权的机构， 通过大量做空股票，来对冲自己的风险
03:55 - 03:57
EN: Those firms are not bearish.
ZH: 这些机构不是看空的 （注：他们是做市商）
03:57 - 04:00
EN: They don’t care.
ZH: 他们不在乎，不在乎市场是涨还是跌 （注：他们的策略是不管涨跌都能赚钱）
03:58 - 04:00
EN: They don’t care if the market is going up or down.
ZH: 他们不在乎，不在乎市场是涨还是跌 （注：他们的策略是不管涨跌都能赚钱）
04:00 - 04:04
EN: All they care about is whether they can make money
ZH: 他们只在乎是否能通过卖出看涨期权和看跌期权赚钱
04:02 - 04:04
EN: by selling puts and selling calls.
ZH: 他们只在乎是否能通过卖出看涨期权和看跌期权赚钱
04:05 - 04:08
EN: If a market has a series of Sell Climaxes like this,
ZH: 当市场出现一系列抛售高潮时，
04:08 - 04:15
EN: part of the selling is from firms selling stock because they’re no longer
ZH: 一部分原因是很多机构不再那么看涨， 所以抛售手中的股票
04:13 - 04:24
EN: as bullish as they were, and part of the selling is due
ZH: 一部分原因是很多机构不再那么看涨， 所以抛售手中的股票 另一部分原因是做市商为了对冲卖出的看跌期权， 大量做空股票来弥补期权上的亏损
04:16 - 04:24
EN: to option-selling firms hedging their losses in their short puts
ZH: 另一部分原因是做市商为了对冲卖出的看跌期权， 大量做空股票来弥补期权上的亏损
04:21 - 04:24
EN: by selling the underlying, by selling stocks.
ZH: 另一部分原因是做市商为了对冲卖出的看跌期权， 大量做空股票来弥补期权上的亏损
04:25 - 04:29
EN: When you see a very severe series of Sell Climaxes, sometimes the selloff
ZH: 如果是非常严重的连续的抛售高潮，
04:29 - 04:34
EN: can be 50% caused by option-selling firms hedging their puts.
ZH: 可能50%都是由于那些机构为了对冲期权，而抛售造成的
04:35 - 04:38
EN: When you have a series of Sell Climaxes like this,
ZH: 当你看到一系列这样的抛售高潮时，
04:38 - 04:41
EN: it’s not necessarily as bearish as it appears.
ZH: 实际上并不一定有那么多机构看空这个市场
04:42 - 04:45
EN: Again, the option-selling firms, they’re not bearish or bullish.
ZH: 在强调一遍，那些期权的卖方，他们既不是多头也不是空头
04:45 - 04:48
EN: They just know that if the market is falling, they have to sell stock,
ZH: 他们只是在市场下跌时做空股票，来对冲手中期权的仓位
04:49 - 04:59
EN: and that means that maybe half of a severe Sell Climax is
ZH: 所以抛售高潮是由这些机构对冲的行为触发的， 并不是要故意做空市场，他们不是空头
04:54 - 04:59
EN: caused by option-selling firms hedging their short puts.
ZH: 所以抛售高潮是由这些机构对冲的行为触发的， 并不是要故意做空市场，他们不是空头
04:57 - 04:59
EN: They’re not bearish.
ZH: 所以抛售高潮是由这些机构对冲的行为触发的， 并不是要故意做空市场，他们不是空头
04:59 - 05:02
EN: So half of the selloff could be caused by institutions
ZH: 所以，可能有一半的抛售，来自于完全不是空头的机构，
05:02 - 05:09
EN: that are not bearish at all, and therefore consecutive Sell Climaxes
ZH: 所以，连续的抛售高潮通常并没有你想象中那么看空
05:06 - 05:09
EN: often is far less bearish than what you think.
ZH: 所以，连续的抛售高潮通常并没有你想象中那么看空
05:14 - 05:17
EN: Market’s going down.
ZH: 当市场下跌的时候，看跌期权升值
Slide 003
Time: 05:15
Bilingual Transcript
05:15 - 05:17
EN: The puts are increasing in value.
ZH: 当市场下跌的时候，看跌期权升值
05:17 - 05:20
EN: The firms that sold those puts are losing money.
ZH: 卖出看跌期权的机构在亏钱
05:20 - 05:26
EN: The easiest way to hedge their losses, reduce their losses,
ZH: 最简单的对冲方法就是做空股票或股指期货
05:23 - 05:26
EN: is to sell the underlying – stocks or futures.
ZH: 最简单的对冲方法就是做空股票或股指期货
05:29 - 05:34
EN: And that results in increased selling, more Sell Climaxes.
ZH: 他们做空的行为，导致了更多的抛售高潮
05:36 - 05:49
EN: Again, as much as 50% of a Sell Climax or a series of Sell Climaxes can be
ZH: 所以高达50%的抛售，可能来自于这些机构的对冲行为， 而不是真的有那么多空头在疯狂做空
05:42 - 05:49
EN: caused by institutions hedging their short puts
ZH: 所以高达50%的抛售，可能来自于这些机构的对冲行为， 而不是真的有那么多空头在疯狂做空
05:46 - 05:49
EN: rather than by traders being bearish.
ZH: 所以高达50%的抛售，可能来自于这些机构的对冲行为， 而不是真的有那么多空头在疯狂做空
05:49 - 05:53
EN: So consecutive Sell Climaxes often is not as bearish as you’d think.
ZH: 所以连续的抛售高潮往往没有你想象的那么可怕
05:57 - 06:00
EN: You have to wait until a Sell Climax is over and see what happens.
ZH: 你需要等到抛售高潮结束后，观察接下来的事情
06:00 - 06:03
EN: If it’s truly bearish, the market will continue down.
ZH: 如果真的有很多机构做空，市场就会继续下跌
06:03 - 06:11
EN: If it’s not as bearish as you think and if it’s due,
ZH: 如果没有那么看空，而且其中部分原因是 因为做市商在对冲手中的而看跌期权
06:07 - 06:11
EN: in large part, due to option-selling firms hedging,
ZH: 如果没有那么看空，而且其中部分原因是 因为做市商在对冲手中的而看跌期权
06:11 - 06:14
EN: the market will either go sideways or go up.
ZH: 那么市场很快就会止跌，甚至反转
06:14 - 06:16
EN: If you see this after a series of Sell Climaxes,
ZH: 如果你在一系列抛售高潮之后看到这种情况
06:16 - 06:20
EN: you have to assume the market is not as bearish as you think,
ZH: 你必须假设市场没有想象中那么看空
06:20 - 06:25
EN: and therefore a lot of the selling was simply hedging
ZH: 所以很多抛售来自于做市商做空股票和期货， 来对冲卖出的看跌期权
06:23 - 06:25
EN: by option-selling institutions.
ZH: 所以很多抛售来自于做市商做空股票和期货， 来对冲卖出的看跌期权
06:30 - 06:33
EN: There’s a difference between Sell Climaxes and Buy Climaxes.
ZH: 这是抛售高潮和抢购高潮的区别
Slide 004
Time: 06:30
Bilingual Transcript
06:36 - 06:39
EN: Most stock is being owned by institutions.
ZH: 大多数股票都在机构的手中
06:39 - 06:43
EN: There is some stock that is held by institutions that are short,
ZH: 有一些股票是在做空的机构手中，
06:43 - 06:47
EN: but most stock is held by institutions believing the stock will go up.
ZH: 但大部分都在做多的机构手中，
06:49 - 06:52
EN: Most of those firms buying want to buy value.
ZH: 这些机构大部分都相信价值投资
06:52 - 06:54
EN: They want to buy pullbacks.
ZH: 他们想要在回调时买入
06:54 - 06:58
EN: There are fewer firms willing to buy breakouts at the top of strong rallies,
ZH: 很少有公司愿意在强势突破时追涨
06:58 - 07:02
EN: and the result is Buy Climaxes tend to be less impressive than Sell Climaxes.
ZH: 所以抢购高潮往往不如抛售高潮那么剧烈
07:06 - 07:10
EN: Firms who buy puts, for the most part, are firms who own stock,
ZH: 买入看跌期权的其实都是做多股票的机构
07:10 - 07:14
EN: and they’re still bullish, but they want to protect themselves against losses,
ZH: 他们是多头，但是想要为手中的股票对冲风险
07:14 - 07:18
EN: against the market going down, without selling their stock.
ZH: 这样在股市下跌的时候就不用卖出股票
07:18 - 07:21
EN: Most firms that buy calls are bulls.
ZH: 买入看涨期权的也是多头机构
07:22 - 07:26
EN: Firms that buy puts are bulls as well, protecting their long positions.
ZH: 买入看跌期权也是多头机构，目的是为了对冲风险
07:26 - 07:28
EN: Firms that buy calls are bulls.
ZH: 多头机构也会买入看涨期权
07:28 - 07:34
EN: They’re buying calls instead of stock because they want to make a bet
ZH: 买看涨期权，而不是股票的原因是， 他们想用更小的风险来押注股票上涨
07:32 - 07:34
EN: that the market’s going higher with smaller risk.
ZH: 买看涨期权，而不是股票的原因是， 他们想用更小的风险来押注股票上涨
07:38 - 07:41
EN: The firms that sell options – for example, selling calls
ZH: 那些期权的卖方——比如卖出看涨期权
07:41 - 07:45
EN: - they do not have the same rate of gamma increase during Buy Climaxes
ZH: 在抢购高潮期权，看涨期权的Gamma的增长速度
07:45 - 07:50
EN: as during Sell Climaxes because of the nature of what’s going on.
ZH: 不想抛售高潮中看跌期权的Gamma增长那么快
07:50 - 07:56
EN: And the result is that Buy Climaxes tend to be less severe as Sell Climaxes.
ZH: 结果就是抢购高潮往往不如抛售高潮那么剧烈 （注：小盘股的gamma squeeze除外）
07:57 - 08:05
EN: The firms that sell the calls are not incurring the losses
ZH: 看涨期权的卖方不像看跌期权的卖方那样， 会在下跌期间遭受那么大的损失
08:02 - 08:05
EN: that they do during selloffs, from selling puts.
ZH: 看涨期权的卖方不像看跌期权的卖方那样， 会在下跌期间遭受那么大的损失
08:10 - 08:13
EN: And therefore, if the market has a series of Buy Climaxes,
ZH: 因此，如果市场出现一系列抢购高潮
08:13 - 08:17
EN: the firms that sell calls are under less pressure to hedge
ZH: 那些看涨期权的卖方对冲的压力通常比较小，
08:17 - 08:24
EN: by buying stocks and futures, and the result is they don’t add
ZH: 所以他们做多股票和期货的对冲力度也较小， 对抢购高潮的推动作用不是很大
08:22 - 08:27
EN: to the climactic buying as much as they add
ZH: 所以他们做多股票和期货的对冲力度也较小， 对抢购高潮的推动作用不是很大 不像对于抛售高潮中的“贡献”那么大
08:25 - 08:27
EN: to climactic selling during a Sell Climax.
ZH: 不像对于抛售高潮中的“贡献”那么大
08:32 - 08:36
EN: This means that in general, Buy Climaxes are not
ZH: 这意味着一般情况下，抢购高潮没有抛售高潮那么极端
08:35 - 08:44
EN: as extreme as Sell Climaxes because they do not have the contribution
ZH: 这意味着一般情况下，抢购高潮没有抛售高潮那么极端 因为期权卖方，即做市商在上涨时的对冲力度小了很多， 或者说贡献不那么大
08:40 - 08:44
EN: from the option-selling firms, or as much of a contribution.
ZH: 因为期权卖方，即做市商在上涨时的对冲力度小了很多， 或者说贡献不那么大
08:49 - 08:53
EN: I want to talk a little bit about consecutive climaxes that fail.
ZH: 接下来我想讲一下失败的连续高潮
Slide 005
Time: 08:50
Bilingual Transcript
No transcript segment aligned to this slide.
Slide 006
Time: 08:55
Bilingual Transcript
08:59 - 09:03
EN: We have a series of Sell Climaxes in a bear channel,
ZH: 在下降通道中有一系列抛售高潮
09:03 - 09:06
EN: and you assume 75% chance you’ll get a bull breakout.
ZH: 75%的概率会向上突破
09:06 - 09:08
EN: Bear channel, bull flag.
ZH: 下降通道，看作是牛旗
09:08 - 09:10
EN: But sometimes instead you get a bear breakout.
ZH: 但有时候也会向下跌破
09:10 - 09:17
EN: In general, if you have a bear breakout below anything
ZH: 通常来说，如果如果市场跌破了一个合理的止损位，
09:15 - 09:17
EN: where there’s a logical stop below,
ZH: 通常来说，如果如果市场跌破了一个合理的止损位，
09:18 - 09:20
EN: there’s a 50/50 chance you’ll get a swing down,
ZH: 50%的概率会有下跌的波段，
09:20 - 09:24
EN: 50/50 chance the bear breakout will fail and you’ll get a reversal up.
ZH: 50%的概率空头突破会失败，然后反转上涨
09:28 - 09:29
EN: Bear channel.
ZH: 下降通道
09:29 - 09:34
EN: 75% chance bull breakout, or at least sideways and then up.
ZH: 75%的概率向上突破，或者至少是横盘然后上涨
09:34 - 09:38
EN: 25% chance you’ll get a strong breakout and a swing down.
ZH: 25%的概率会强势地加速下跌，进入新的下跌波段
09:48 - 09:52
EN: Here, we got a strong breakout and decent follow-through below a Wedge Bottom.
ZH: 这里，强势跌破了楔形底，而且有良好的跟随
09:52 - 09:55
EN: We have consecutive bear bars closing on or near their lows,
ZH: 连续的阴线收在最低或低位，
09:55 - 10:00
EN: and we have that one big bear bar, and then a pair of additional bear bars.
ZH: 有大阴线，然后是两个跟随的阴线
10:00 - 10:01
EN: There’s adequate follow-through.
ZH: 这样的跟随足够好
10:01 - 10:04
EN: We’re probably going to get at least a small second leg down.
ZH: 很大的概率，至少会有小的第2段下跌
10:04 - 10:12
EN: Maybe Leg 1, pullback, Leg 2 or Leg 1, pullback,
ZH: 也许是1，反弹，2； 或者1，反弹，2——那个阳线的下影线是2
10:09 - 10:12
EN: and Leg 2, the tail on the bottom of that bull bar.
ZH: 也许是1，反弹，2； 或者1，反弹，2——那个阳线的下影线是2
10:15 - 10:18
EN: Bear breakout below the Wedge Bottom, decent follow-through.
ZH: 跌破楔形底，有良好的跟随
10:18 - 10:21
EN: The odds are we’re going at least a little bit lower.
ZH: 大概率至少还会下跌一些
Slide 007
Time: 10:25
Bilingual Transcript
10:25 - 10:27
EN: Very Tight Channel.
ZH: 通道很窄
10:28 - 10:31
EN: We have a breakout, so the market cycle starts over again.
ZH: 突破之后，市场周期重新开始
10:31 - 10:36
EN: You have to assume breakout will be followed by a channel
ZH: 所以你必须假设，突破之后会进入通道，然后是震荡区间
10:34 - 10:36
EN: and then by a Trading Range.
ZH: 所以你必须假设，突破之后会进入通道，然后是震荡区间
10:36 - 10:38
EN: Here we got a very big Trading Range.
ZH: 这里变成了一个非常大的震荡区间
10:44 - 10:48
EN: Consecutive Sell Climaxes, you should always think of them as a type
ZH: 连续的抛售高潮，总是可以把它们看作是楔形底，
10:48 - 10:53
EN: of Wedge Bottom because once you have three or more climaxes, it is a Wedge.
ZH: 因为一旦有3个或更多的高潮，就形成了楔形
10:54 - 10:59
EN: We have a selloff, a rally, and then we’re starting to sell off again.
ZH: 下跌，反弹，再次开始下跌
10:59 - 11:01
EN: This is a Double Top bear flag.
ZH: 这是一个双顶熊旗
11:01 - 11:11
EN: This is the neckline, so the first target the bears will look for
ZH: 这是颈线，如果成功向下跌破的话，空头的第1个目标 MM目标位就是把这个双顶熊旗的高度往下翻一倍
11:05 - 11:11
EN: if the breakout is successful is a Measured Move down
ZH: 这是颈线，如果成功向下跌破的话，空头的第1个目标 MM目标位就是把这个双顶熊旗的高度往下翻一倍
11:08 - 11:11
EN: based upon this Double Top bear flag.
ZH: 这是颈线，如果成功向下跌破的话，空头的第1个目标 MM目标位就是把这个双顶熊旗的高度往下翻一倍
11:13 - 11:17
EN: Whenever there’s a breakout, you always have to be thinking
ZH: 只要看到突破，就要寻找潜在的MM目标位
11:15 - 11:17
EN: about a possible Measured Move down.
ZH: 只要看到突破，就要寻找潜在的MM目标位
11:18 - 11:22
EN: It might be from this high and that low, but if it falls below that,
ZH: 可能是从这个高点到那个低点，如果继续下跌，
11:22 - 11:25
EN: then you’ve got to be thinking about from this high and that low,
ZH: 那么就要考虑从这个高点到那个低点，
11:25 - 11:28
EN: and traders will look to take profits on their shorts.
ZH: 然后空头会考虑止盈手中的仓位
11:28 - 11:32
EN: Bull scalpers will look to start buying around that Measured Move target.
ZH: 剥头皮交易者会在MM目标位附近买入做多
11:38 - 11:42
EN: A strong breakout below a Wedge Bottom is a low probability event,
ZH: 强势跌破楔形底，这是一个低概率事件
11:42 - 11:45
EN: and that means bulls are trapped in.
ZH: 这意味着多头被套牢了
11:45 - 11:48
EN: They’ve been buying lows for scalps all the way down,
ZH: 之前多头逢低买入作剥头皮交易，
11:48 - 11:51
EN: and here they’re buying lows and they’re not able to get a profit.
ZH: 现在他们继续在前期低点挂单买入，但赚不到钱
11:51 - 11:53
EN: They have to sell.
ZH: 所以必须卖出止损
11:53 - 11:55
EN: And you have bears trapped out.
ZH: 同时有空头被困在外面
11:56 - 11:59
EN: They were not selling at lows; now they think the market’s going lower.
ZH: 他们之前不愿意追空，现在突破之后，他们知道还要继续下跌
11:59 - 12:01
EN: They have to sell as well.
ZH: 所以他们也会卖出
12:02 - 12:05
EN: The likelihood is that you’ll get at least a small second leg down.
ZH: 所以大概率至少会有小的第2段下跌
12:05 - 12:09
EN: The first reversal up, the trapped bulls will sell out
ZH: 第1次反弹的时候，被套牢的多头卖出止损，
12:09 - 12:13
EN: of their longs and the bears who did not short will sell.
ZH: 还没有入场的空头也会卖出开仓做空
12:13 - 12:16
EN: They’ll sell the high of this bar or below the low of that bar.
ZH: 他们会在这根K线的高点上方，或那根K线的低点下方卖出
12:17 - 12:20
EN: Here we got two legs down, but they’re very small.
ZH: 这里有两段下跌，但第2段很小
12:20 - 12:22
EN: That is the minimum, though.
ZH: 这就是最低的目标
12:22 - 12:23
EN: The minimum is two legs down.
ZH: 最低目标是两段下跌
12:23 - 12:25
EN: Breakout, pullback, second leg down.
ZH: 突破，反弹，第2段下跌
Slide 008
Time: 12:28
Bilingual Transcript
12:32 - 12:36
EN: Every trend bar or series of trend bars is a climax.
ZH: 每个趋势K线或一系列趋势K线都是高潮
12:36 - 12:38
EN: We have a series of Sell Climaxes here.
ZH: 这里有一系列抛售高潮
12:39 - 12:41
EN: The bulls are trying to reverse up.
ZH: 多头正在尝试反转上涨
12:41 - 12:44
EN: They’re breaking above a very Tight Channel.
ZH: 他们突破了窄下降通道
12:47 - 12:52
EN: And then we get a very big final Sell Climax, bigger than all of the others.
ZH: 然后出现了非常大的最终抛售高潮
12:52 - 12:56
EN: Whenever you have the biggest Sell Climax in a bear trend occurring
ZH: 如果下降趋势已经持续了超过20根K线，
12:56 - 12:59
EN: after the bear trend has gone on 20 or more bars,
ZH: 再出现最大的抛售高潮，
12:59 - 13:02
EN: it’s more likely an exhaustive end of the trend
ZH: 趋势更有可能即将衰竭、结束，
13:02 - 13:07
EN: rather than a Measuring Gap leading to a second leg down, a Measured Move down.
ZH: 而不是测量型缺口，继续跌到MM目标位
13:07 - 13:08
EN: And that’s what we have here.
ZH: 这就是这里所发生的情况
13:12 - 13:13
EN: We have a gap.
ZH: 有一个缺口
13:13 - 13:16
EN: We have a breakout here, a breakout point.
ZH: 跌破之后，这个是突破点
13:16 - 13:19
EN: The rally did not go above that breakout point.
ZH: 反弹没有超过那个突破点
13:19 - 13:22
EN: You have to be thinking the market will fall for a Measured Move down,
ZH: 所以必须考虑到，市场会跌到某个MM目标位
13:22 - 13:24
EN: maybe from this high to the breakout point,
ZH: 比如从这个高点到突破点
13:24 - 13:27
EN: maybe from this high to the midpoint of the gap.
ZH: 或者从这个高点到缺口的中间
13:27 - 13:29
EN: And we fell to about that level.
ZH: 市场跌到了MM目标为附近
13:30 - 13:35
EN: This breakout probably was simply a sell vacuum test
ZH: 这个抛售高潮可能只是对MM目标位的真空测试
13:34 - 13:35
EN: of the Measured Move target.
ZH: 这个抛售高潮可能只是对MM目标位的真空测试
13:35 - 13:38
EN: There probably is other support here as well.
ZH: 也许这里还有其它的支撑位 （注：比如重要的整数，或者前期低点，等等）
13:39 - 13:41
EN: The weak bulls finally gave up.
ZH: 弱势多头最终放弃了
13:41 - 13:45
EN: The strong bears look at this and say, “Wow, I didn’t expect that.
ZH: 而强空头是这样想的：“哇！真是预料之外的礼物！”
13:45 - 13:45
EN: What a gift.
ZH: 而强空头是这样想的：“哇！真是预料之外的礼物！”
13:45 - 13:49
EN: I’d better buy back my shorts,” and the strong bulls look at that
ZH: “这真是止盈的好机会啊！” 同时强多头看到抛售高潮后想到，
13:49 - 13:54
EN: and say “Wow, that’s way overdone,” and they know
ZH: “这显然跌过头了” 他们知道空头会在这里止盈
13:52 - 13:54
EN: the strong bears will buy back their shorts.
ZH: 他们知道空头会在这里止盈
13:54 - 13:57
EN: The strong bulls start to buy, and the result is
ZH: 所以强多头也开始买入，
13:57 - 14:01
EN: you can get a bull channel that can last a long, long time.
ZH: 结果就造成了这个持续了很久的上涨通道
14:07 - 14:09
EN: No one left to sell at this price.
ZH: 没有人愿意在这么低的价格卖出了
14:09 - 14:14
EN: 75% chance you’ll get 10 bars, two legs sideways to up.
ZH: 75%的概率，会有横向或向上的两段10K
14:14 - 14:17
EN: One leg, pullback, second leg, maybe.
ZH: 1，回调，2？也许是
14:17 - 14:19
EN: But a very Tight Channel.
ZH: 但这是窄通道 （复习：抛售高潮后多头的最低目标是什么？）
14:19 - 14:20
EN: Probably going higher.
ZH: 大概率还会上涨
14:20 - 14:23
EN: So maybe this is one leg, pullback, second leg.
ZH: 所以可能是1，回调，2
Slide 009
Time: 14:25
Bilingual Transcript
14:32 - 14:36
EN: Here we have a bear channel lasting a lot of bars, maybe 40 or 50 bars.
ZH: 这里个下降通道持续了很多K线，可能有40~50根K线
14:36 - 14:40
EN: If you look at a higher timeframe chart, maybe it’s only 20 bars.
ZH: 如果去更高的时间周期看，也许只有20根K线
14:40 - 14:43
EN: But in any case, it’s a bear channel that’s lasting a long time.
ZH: 无论如何，这是持续了很长时间的下降通道
14:46 - 14:53
EN: In general, I’m looking for a 10 bar, two-legged correction
ZH: 通常来说，我预期的是存在这个结构的 最高时间周期上的两段10K反弹
14:50 - 14:53
EN: on the highest timeframe chart that has the same pattern.
ZH: 通常来说，我预期的是存在这个结构的 最高时间周期上的两段10K反弹
14:54 - 14:56
EN: Let’s say this is a 5-minute chart.
ZH: 假设这是5分钟K线图
14:56 - 15:00
EN: You could look at a 10- or 15-minute chart, and the pattern might be the same.
ZH: 如果在10分钟或15分钟图上，看得到相同的结构，
15:01 - 15:06
EN: I’m going to then look for 10 bars, two legs on that 10- or 15-minute chart.
ZH: 那么我会在那个10或15分钟的图上预期两段10K
15:11 - 15:15
EN: In general, the minimum goal is 10 bars, two legs and a rally
ZH: 通常来说，最小目标是两段、10K，
15:15 - 15:20
EN: that lasts about half as many bars that there were in the bear trend.
ZH: 持续时间大约是左边下降趋势的一半
15:25 - 15:30
EN: So for example, if you have a bear trend lasting 50 bars, you’d expect a rally
ZH: 比如说，如果左边的下降趋势持续了50根K线，
15:30 - 15:33
EN: that would have two legs and last about 20 or 30 bars.
ZH: 可以预期有两段上涨的反弹，持续20~30根K线
15:33 - 15:42
EN: It might last a lot longer here, but that would be the minimum guideline
ZH: 可能会持续更久，但这是空头再次做空、 多头停止买入之前的最小目标
15:38 - 15:42
EN: before the bears will start selling again, and where the bulls will stop buying.
ZH: 可能会持续更久，但这是空头再次做空、 多头停止买入之前的最小目标
Slide 010
Time: 15:45
Bilingual Transcript
15:48 - 15:50
EN: Consecutive Sell Climaxes.
ZH: 连续的抛售高潮
15:50 - 15:53
EN: Maybe the market will bottom.
ZH: 也许市场会筑底
15:53 - 16:00
EN: Sometimes when you have consecutive Sell Climaxes, you get one final,
ZH: 偶尔，在连续的抛售高潮之后， 会出现最终的，非常大的恐慌抛售高潮
15:57 - 16:04
EN: very big Sell Climax, and traders look at that and they think,
ZH: 偶尔，在连续的抛售高潮之后， 会出现最终的，非常大的恐慌抛售高潮 一些交易者看到这个，会认为“哇！市场加速跌破，
16:02 - 16:04
EN: “Oh wow, this is accelerating downward,
ZH: 一些交易者看到这个，会认为“哇！市场加速跌破，
16:04 - 16:07
EN: and we’re probably going down for another Measured Move.
ZH: 可能会跌到新的MM目标位！
16:07 - 16:09
EN: Maybe this will be a Measuring Gap.” Usually not.
ZH: 这可能是新的测量型缺口！” 通常不是（毫无感情地否定了）
16:09 - 16:12
EN: If the trend has gone on for 20 or more bars
ZH: 如果趋势已经持续了20根或更多K线，
16:12 - 16:14
EN: and you’ve had a series of Sell Climaxes
ZH: 并且有一系列的抛售高潮，
16:14 - 16:18
EN: and now you have the biggest Sell Climax occurring late in a trend,
ZH: 然后在下降趋势后期出现了最大的抛售高潮
16:18 - 16:20
EN: more likely it’s going to be an Exhaustion Gap
ZH: 它更有可能是一个竭尽型缺口
16:20 - 16:23
EN: - a gap between this close and that low.
ZH: ——这个收盘价和那个低点之间的缺口
16:23 - 16:26
EN: Once you get the reversal up, then the gap is this high to that low.
ZH: 开始反转上涨之后，缺口缩小， 现在是从这个高点到那个低点
16:26 - 16:29
EN: We’re probably going to go back above that low.
ZH: 大概率会反弹到那个低点的上方（补缺口）
16:29 - 16:32
EN: We’ll probably reach the top of the final Sell Climax
ZH: 大概率会反弹到抛售高潮的起跌点，
16:32 - 16:35
EN: and then decide whether to go sideways and resume down,
ZH: 然后决定是横盘，还是恢复下跌，
16:35 - 16:38
EN: or break to the up side and go up for a Measured Move
ZH: 还是向上突破、涨到MM目标位——
16:38 - 16:40
EN: based upon the height of that Sell Climax.
ZH: 把抛售高潮的高度往上翻一倍
16:46 - 16:49
EN: Sometimes it happens that when you get a series of Sell Climaxes,
ZH: 有时在一系列抛售高潮之后
16:49 - 16:52
EN: you need an even stronger Sell Climax
ZH: 需要一个更极端的抛售高潮，
16:52 - 16:55
EN: before the market is exhausted and you get a reversal.
ZH: 趋势才会衰竭、然后反转
16:59 - 17:02
EN: Experienced traders will often buy that close,
ZH: 有经验的交易员通常会在它的收盘买入，
17:02 - 17:05
EN: betting that the market’s probably not going to fall much further.
ZH: 押注市场跌不了多少了
17:05 - 17:09
EN: Higher probability to buy above this bull bar or above that bull bar.
ZH: 在这个阳线或那个阳线上方买入，胜率会更高
17:16 - 17:17
EN: We have a breakout.
ZH: 大阴线跌破
17:17 - 17:21
EN: A breakout of what? Well, of this low.
ZH: 跌破了这个低点——前期尝试在这里筑底反转
17:20 - 17:21
EN: We tried to bottom here.
ZH: 跌破了这个低点——前期尝试在这里筑底反转
17:21 - 17:24
EN: You’ve got to be thinking about a possible Measured Move down
ZH: 必须考虑潜在的MM目标位
17:24 - 17:28
EN: based upon the top to the bottom of that leg.
ZH: 把这段下跌的高度翻一倍
17:28 - 17:31
EN: This bottom attempt, and we fell for a Measured Move down.
ZH: 筑底的尝试失败，跌到了MM目标位
17:32 - 17:35
EN: We also have a very Tight Channel.
ZH: 这也是一个很窄的通道
17:35 - 17:36
EN: Small Wedge Bottom.
ZH: 小楔形底
17:36 - 17:41
EN: Three pushes down, one, two, and three, and we have a bear breakout below it.
ZH: 3次向下推动——1，2，3，然后加速向下跌破
17:41 - 17:43
EN: So there is some support there.
ZH: 所以那里（MM）有一些支撑
Slide 011
Time: 17:45
Bilingual Transcript
17:48 - 17:52
EN: We have a reversal up, a Buy Climax, and then another Buy Climax.
ZH: 反转上涨，抢购高潮，又一个抢购高潮
17:53 - 17:57
EN: This is the biggest bull trend bar in the bull trend that started over here.
ZH: 这是从这里开始的上涨趋势中最大的阳线
17:57 - 17:59
EN: This is still part of the bull trend.
ZH: 它仍然是上涨趋势的一部分
18:00 - 18:03
EN: Whenever you get the biggest bull bar late in a bull trend,
ZH: 每当上涨趋势持续超过20根K线，
18:03 - 18:06
EN: 20 or more bars into the bull trend, you have to be thinking
ZH: 再出现体积最大的阳线时，
18:06 - 18:08
EN: that it could be a climactic end of the trend.
ZH: 趋势可能将要衰竭、结束
18:08 - 18:12
EN: It could be a Measuring Gap – this low and that high.
ZH: 它当然有可能是测量型缺口——这个低点和那个高点
18:12 - 18:16
EN: Might get a Measured Move up from here to here, or from here to here.
ZH: 可能会涨到MM目标位——基于这个低点到这里， 或者那个低点到这里（往上翻一倍）
18:20 - 18:23
EN: But we’re about a 50% pullback of the bear trend
ZH: 但现在处于下降趋势的50%反弹附近
18:23 - 18:26
EN: and we’re testing prior Lower Highs.
ZH: 而且在测试前期的高点
18:26 - 18:28
EN: We’re testing the top of this Sell Climax.
ZH: 测试抛售高潮的起跌点
18:28 - 18:36
EN: Therefore, you’ve got to be thinking that it could be a buy vacuum test
ZH: 因此，必须考虑这可能是对阻力的真空测试， 并且是第1段上涨的结束
18:32 - 18:36
EN: of resistance and the end of the first leg up.
ZH: 因此，必须考虑这可能是对阻力的真空测试， 并且是第1段上涨的结束
18:38 - 18:41
EN: Big bear trend, usually evolves into a Trading Range,
ZH: 大的下降趋势，通常会演变成震荡区间
18:41 - 18:43
EN: and therefore this could be a 2nd Leg Trap.
ZH: 所以它有可能是第2段陷阱
18:43 - 18:46
EN: Leg 1, pullback, Leg 2 in a Trading Range.
ZH: 1，回调，2，震荡区间中的第2段陷阱
18:52 - 18:53
EN: 8 bar bull Micro Channel.
ZH: 8根K线的上涨微通道
18:54 - 18:58
EN: That’s actually more than 8 bars, but maybe 10 bar bull Micro Channel.
ZH: 实际上不止8根K线，可能是10根K线的上涨微通道
18:58 - 19:02
EN: Chances are the first reversal down, traders will buy it.
ZH: 第1次反转下跌，大概率会有很多交易者买入
19:02 - 19:07
EN: Chances are the bears will need at least a Micro Double Top
ZH: 空头想要反转的话，至少需要一个小双顶
19:04 - 19:07
EN: before they can get any kind of a correction.
ZH: 空头想要反转的话，至少需要一个小双顶
Slide 012
Time: 19:10
Bilingual Transcript
19:14 - 19:17
EN: We have a Buy Climax, we have a Buy Climax.
ZH: 抢购高潮，又一个抢购高潮
19:17 - 19:26
EN: Sometimes you have to get an even stronger Buy Climax
ZH: 有时，需要更大的抢购高潮， 市场才会衰竭，然后回调或反转
19:21 - 19:26
EN: before there’s exhaustion and any kind of a reversal or a pullback.
ZH: 有时，需要更大的抢购高潮， 市场才会衰竭，然后回调或反转
19:29 - 19:33
EN: Rather than the bull rally ending here, it had to break
ZH: 上涨没有在这里停止，
19:33 - 19:35
EN: above the top of the entire bear trend.
ZH: 而是突破了整个下降趋势的起跌点
19:35 - 19:38
EN: The biggest bull trend bar late in a bull trend,
ZH: 上涨趋势后期最大的阳线
19:38 - 19:40
EN: probably an exhaustive end of the trend.
ZH: 趋势大概率会衰竭、结束
19:40 - 19:44
EN: You can also call it a Parabolic Wedge – first leg, pause,
ZH: 你也可以说它是抛物线楔形——1，暂停；
19:44 - 19:49
EN: second leg, pause, third leg or first leg, second leg, third leg.
ZH: 2，暂停；3； 或者1，2，3
19:49 - 19:51
EN: Different computers see it differently.
ZH: 不同的电脑程序有不同的算法
19:51 - 19:53
EN: In any case, we have a bear channel.
ZH: 总之，大下降趋势
19:53 - 19:56
EN: Probably will evolve into a Trading Range,
ZH: 大概率会变成震荡区间 （意思是很难彻底反转）
19:56 - 19:59
EN: and therefore traders will look for a top of the range.
ZH: 因此交易者会寻找区间的上沿在哪里
19:59 - 20:03
EN: The bears thought they might’ve had it here for a possible Double Top.
ZH: 空头认为它们在这里有一个潜在的双顶
20:03 - 20:05
EN: Instead we broke strongly above it and we broke
ZH: 然而强势地向上突破了，
20:05 - 20:08
EN: above the top of the entire bear trend.
ZH: 而且还突破了整个下降趋势的最高点
20:08 - 20:11
EN: However, the biggest bull trend bar late in a bull trend,
ZH: 但是，它是上涨趋势后期体积最大的大阳线
20:11 - 20:14
EN: especially at the top of what could be a Trading Range
ZH: 尤其这里可能是一个大震荡区间的上沿
20:14 - 20:17
EN: - it’s probably an exhaustive end of the trend.
ZH: 所以这个大阳线很可能是竭尽型缺口
20:25 - 20:29
EN: We broke above that high, but closed below that high.
ZH: 一度突破了那个高点，但是收盘又跌回来了
20:29 - 20:31
EN: The bulls are taking profits.
ZH: 多头在止盈
20:31 - 20:33
EN: They saw this bar as a gift.
ZH: 他们把这根大阳线看作是礼物
20:33 - 20:36
EN: At this point we have a 13 bar bull Micro Channel.
ZH: 此时上涨微通道已经持续了13根K线
20:36 - 20:40
EN: 13 bars without a pullback, and it’s followed by a bear bar
ZH: 连续上涨13根K线没有回调，然后是一根阴线，
20:40 - 20:41
EN: and then a second bear bar.
ZH: 第2根阴线
20:41 - 20:43
EN: A bear ii pattern.
ZH: 看跌的ii结构
20:43 - 20:47
EN: Bulls will sell below here if they didn’t already sell out,
ZH: 还没有卖出止盈的多头会在这根K线下方离场
20:47 - 20:51
EN: and bears will sell as well, looking for at least a scalp down.
ZH: 空头也会卖出做空，预期至少做一笔剥头皮交易
20:51 - 20:54
EN: This is unsustainable behavior.
ZH: 这是不可持续的行为
20:54 - 20:59
EN: The biggest bull bar late in a bull trend, testing the top of what
ZH: 上涨趋势后期最大的阳线，测试潜在的震荡区间上沿
20:58 - 21:08
EN: could be a Trading Range, testing the prior high – probably a buy vacuum test
ZH: 上涨趋势后期最大的阳线，测试潜在的震荡区间上沿 测试前期高点——可能是对阻力位的真空测试， 并且可能是上涨趋势的结束
21:04 - 21:08
EN: of resistance and probably an exhaustive end of this rally.
ZH: 测试前期高点——可能是对阻力位的真空测试， 并且可能是上涨趋势的结束
21:09 - 21:12
EN: Anything that is unsustainable is usually climactic,
ZH: 任何不可持续的行为都是高潮
21:12 - 21:15
EN: and usually results in an end of the trend.
ZH: 通常会导致趋势结束
21:15 - 21:18
EN: 10 bars, two legs sideways to down at a minimum.
ZH: 至少横盘或下跌两段10K
21:22 - 21:25
EN: Again, different ways to look at this as a Parabolic Wedge,
ZH: 这个抛物线楔形有不同的选择
21:25 - 21:28
EN: using these highs or this high and then that high.
ZH: 使用这些高点，或这个高点和那个高点
21:35 - 21:37
EN: Consecutive Buy Climaxes.
ZH: 连续的抢购高潮
21:37 - 21:39
EN: A severe Buy Climax.
ZH: 非常剧烈的高潮
21:39 - 21:42
EN: Minimum goal: 10 bars, two legs sideways to down
ZH: 最小目标：横盘或下跌两段10K
21:42 - 21:43
EN: before the bulls will buy again.
ZH: 然后多头才会考虑是否再次买入
21:43 - 21:46
EN: Here, we’re sideways for about 30 bars.
ZH: 这里横盘了大约30根K线
21:46 - 21:52
EN: Then the probability of trend resumption up falls to the same
ZH: 然后恢复上涨的概率降低， 和反转下跌的概率相等
21:49 - 21:52
EN: as the probability for trend reversal down.
ZH: 然后恢复上涨的概率降低， 和反转下跌的概率相等
Slide 013
Time: 21:55
Bilingual Transcript
22:00 - 22:01
EN: Buy Climax.
ZH: 抢购高潮
22:01 - 22:02
EN: Ended with a Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 以窄震荡区间的形式结束
22:02 - 22:04
EN: The market’s in BreakOut Mode.
ZH: 市场现在处于突破模式
22:04 - 22:07
EN: Here we have a Double Top within the Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 这里有一个窄震荡区间内的双顶
22:07 - 22:10
EN: That is a Double Top Lower High.
ZH: 高点降低，双顶
22:10 - 22:11
EN: Here’s the high.
ZH: 低于之前的高点
22:11 - 22:13
EN: Double Top Lower High in a Tight Trading Range,
ZH: 高点降低，窄震荡区间内的双顶
22:13 - 22:16
EN: it’s a Double Top Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 这是高点降低的大反转结构
22:16 - 22:21
EN: 40% chance if we fall below that bar,
ZH: 如果跌破那根K线， 40%的概率会有两段下跌——1，反弹，2
22:18 - 22:21
EN: we’ll get two legs down – one, pullback, two.
ZH: 如果跌破那根K线， 40%的概率会有两段下跌——1，反弹，2
22:27 - 22:29
EN: Bulls and bears will sell this close.
ZH: 多头和空头会在它的收盘卖出
22:29 - 22:32
EN: They see consecutive Buy Climaxes.
ZH: 他们看到了连续的抢购高潮
22:32 - 22:33
EN: They see the biggest bull bar.
ZH: 他们看到最大的大阳线
22:33 - 22:36
EN: They see this close below that high.
ZH: 他们看到这个收盘价低于那个高点
22:36 - 22:38
EN: Some bears and bulls will sell here.
ZH: 一些空头和多头会在这里卖出
22:38 - 22:41
EN: The bulls sell out of their longs to take profits;
ZH: 多头卖出手中的仓位止盈，
22:41 - 22:45
EN: the bears sell looking for 10 bars, two legs sideways to down.
ZH: 空头卖出，预期横盘或下跌的两段10K
22:45 - 22:48
EN: And those who do not sell here will sell here.
ZH: 之前没有在这里卖出的交易者，现在会在这里卖出
22:48 - 22:53
EN: We have a bear ii pattern – 2 bear bars, this one closing on its low.
ZH: 这是看跌的ii结构——两根阴线，其中它收盘在最低
22:53 - 22:57
EN: At a minimum, we’ll probably get 10 bars, two legs sideways, maybe down.
ZH: 最低目标是横盘或下跌的两段10K
23:02 - 23:04
EN: If you want, you can also call this a Triangle.
ZH: 你也可以把它看作是一个三角形
23:04 - 23:07
EN: We have three reversals up – one, two, three.
ZH: 有3次反转上涨——1，2，3
23:12 - 23:16
EN: Double Top Lower High here, Double Top Lower High here.
ZH: 这里有双顶、这里有双顶
23:16 - 23:19
EN: 50% chance we’ll get a bear breakout.
ZH: 50%的概率会向下突破
23:19 - 23:24
EN: 40% chance we’ll get two legs down for a swing down, which we did.
ZH: 40%的概率会有两段下跌，可以做波段交易——就像这里
23:29 - 23:33
EN: Traders who do not want to take the early short below this bar
ZH: 那些不愿意在反转初期入场， 不愿意在这根K线或那根K线下方做空的交易者，
23:31 - 23:37
EN: or below that bar have a higher probability of selling
ZH: 那些不愿意在反转初期入场， 不愿意在这根K线或那根K线下方做空的交易者， 在看到连续2~3根好的阴线之后再入场，胜率会更高
23:34 - 23:37
EN: after they see 2 or 3 decent bear bars.
ZH: 在看到连续2~3根好的阴线之后再入场，胜率会更高
23:37 - 23:41
EN: They can either sell the close, sell the low of this pullback bar,
ZH: 他们可以它的收盘卖出，在反弹K线的低点下方卖出，
23:41 - 23:44
EN: or sell below the low of this pullback bar, a Double Top
ZH: 或者在这根反弹K线的低点下方卖出—— 这里有一个双顶熊旗——
23:44 - 23:47
EN: - this high and that high, Low 1, Low 2.
ZH: 这个高点和那个高点——低1，低2
Slide 014
Time: 23:50
Bilingual Transcript
23:52 - 23:56
EN: I talked about climaxes are due to extreme behavior
ZH: 这节课我讲了高潮是由于极端行为所引起的——
23:56 - 24:00
EN: - extreme selling for a Sell Climax, extreme buying for a Buy Climax.
ZH: 极端抛售造成抛售高潮； 极端买入造成抢购高潮
24:00 - 24:12
EN: However, a big component of the climax can be due
ZH: 然而，高潮的一个重要贡献，可能是来自于做市商， 他们为了对冲卖出期权的风险而大量买入或卖出股票
24:04 - 24:12
EN: to option-selling firms losing money and having
ZH: 然而，高潮的一个重要贡献，可能是来自于做市商， 他们为了对冲卖出期权的风险而大量买入或卖出股票
24:08 - 24:12
EN: to offset their losses by taking positions in the underlying.
ZH: 然而，高潮的一个重要贡献，可能是来自于做市商， 他们为了对冲卖出期权的风险而大量买入或卖出股票
24:12 - 24:18
EN: So if the market is rallying strongly, their calls
ZH: 如果市场大涨，他们卖出的看涨期权就会大亏， 所以需要大量买入股票来对冲
24:15 - 24:18
EN: that they sold are losing money and they have to buy the underlying.
ZH: 如果市场大涨，他们卖出的看涨期权就会大亏， 所以需要大量买入股票来对冲
24:18 - 24:27
EN: If the market’s selling off in a series of Sell Climaxes,
ZH: 如果市场大跌，他们卖出的看跌期权就会大亏， 所以需要大量做空股票来对冲
24:21 - 24:27
EN: the puts that they sold are losing money,
ZH: 如果市场大跌，他们卖出的看跌期权就会大亏， 所以需要大量做空股票来对冲
24:24 - 24:27
EN: and they have to sell the underlying stocks or ETFs.
ZH: 如果市场大跌，他们卖出的看跌期权就会大亏， 所以需要大量做空股票来对冲
24:28 - 24:33
EN: And then finally, I talked about consecutive climaxes that fail.
ZH: 最后，我讲了失败的连续高潮
24:37 - 24:38
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
24:38 - 24:40
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
24:40 - 24:44
EN: This is the fifth of five videos on climaxes.
ZH: 高潮的5节课，到这里就全部讲完了