al-brooks-course
33G - Protective Stops
Raw transcript and slide notes for 33G - Protective Stops.
Overview
- Slides: 18
- Transcript segments: 561
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:09
EN: This is the seventh of seven videos on protective stops.
ZH: 这是保护性止损的第7节课，也是最后1节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:11
Bilingual Transcript
00:14 - 00:17
EN: I want to talk a little bit about breakeven stops.
ZH: 这节课我会讲到“打平止损法” （注：指不愿意让利润变成亏损，于是打平离场）
00:17 - 00:21
EN: Traders use them regularly, but there’s no mathematical basis for them.
ZH: 交易者经常这么做，但实际上并没有数学依据
00:21 - 00:24
EN: I also want to talk about the importance of breakout tests.
ZH: 我也会讲突破回测的重要性
00:24 - 00:29
EN: The market goes your way and it comes back to the original entry price.
ZH: 市场朝着你预期的方向运行， 然后回来测试你的入场价格
00:29 - 00:32
EN: And finally, I want to talk about stops for scalpers.
ZH: 最后，我会讲到剥头皮交易者的止损
00:32 - 00:34
EN: Most traders should not be scalping,
ZH: 大多数交易者不应该（主动）做剥头皮交易
00:34 - 00:37
EN: but everyone ends up scalping at least some of the time.
ZH: 但或多或少有些交易都会变成剥头皮
00:38 - 00:42
EN: The very best scalpers tend to use wide stops and scale in
ZH: 优秀的剥头皮交易者都倾向于使用宽止损并加仓
00:42 - 00:45
EN: - but again, most traders should not be scalping.
ZH: ——但再次强调，大多数交易者不应该做剥头皮交易
Slide 002
Time: 00:46
Bilingual Transcript
00:54 - 00:59
EN: When a trader uses a breakeven stop, what they mean is the market goes your way
ZH: 保本止损的意思是，市场朝着你的方向运行 （注：你目前是有浮盈的）
00:59 - 01:03
EN: and then you move the stop back to around the entry price.
ZH: 然后你把止损移动到入场价格附近
01:03 - 01:07
EN: It does not have to be exactly the entry price; maybe you make a small amount,
ZH: 不一定正好等于入场价格；你可能会小赚 （注：很多人会至少想要赚1个tick）
01:07 - 01:10
EN: lose a small amount, but around the entry price.
ZH: 或者小亏，总之大约在入场价格附近
01:14 - 01:18
EN: If the stop gets hit, you only lose the brokerage cost
ZH: 如果止损被打到，你只不过损失了手续费，
01:18 - 01:21
EN: and maybe a little slippage, so a small loss.
ZH: 或者加上滑点，所以损失很小
01:21 - 01:25
EN: Sometimes a small win.
ZH: 有时候是小赚，比打平离场略好一点
01:22 - 01:25
EN: Sometimes you’ll have the stop a little bit better than breakeven.
ZH: 有时候是小赚，比打平离场略好一点
01:26 - 01:30
EN: And sometimes a small win, and you end up a little bit better than breakeven.
ZH: （重复）有时候是小赚，比打平离场略好一点
01:30 - 01:33
EN: If you have a small loss or a small win,
ZH: 如果是很小的小赚、小亏，
01:33 - 01:36
EN: traders refer to that as a breakeven trade.
ZH: 交易者就称之为“打平”
01:42 - 01:47
EN: Let’s say a trader sold here, betting on a possible Trading Range
ZH: 假设一个交易者在这里卖出做空， 押注这是一个震荡区间上沿的双顶
01:47 - 01:50
EN: and a Double Top, and we have a small bear body here.
ZH: 这根小阴线是他的做空信号K
01:51 - 01:53
EN: The trade eventually goes his way.
ZH: 市场最终按照他的预期下跌了
01:53 - 01:56
EN: Some traders will hope for a swing trade
ZH: 一些交易者想要做波段交易
01:56 - 02:00
EN: and use a stop above the top of the bear leg.
ZH: 把止损放在这个高点上方
02:00 - 02:03
EN: Other traders, after it goes their way, will decide that,
ZH: 也有一些交易者，当市场按照他们的方向运行之后， 他们会想：
02:03 - 02:05
EN: “Well, it’s gone far enough.
ZH: “嗯，已经下跌了不少。
02:05 - 02:07
EN: I really don’t want to come back to my entry price.
ZH: 我不想让盈利变成亏损 （注：原文是“不想让市场回到我的入场价格”）
02:07 - 02:10
EN: If it does, I’ll just get out breakeven.”
ZH: 如果它涨回来，我就打平离场。”
02:10 - 02:16
EN: So they’ll lower their stop from up here down
ZH: 所以他们会把止损从上面移动到做空信号K线的低点下方
02:13 - 02:16
EN: to just below the low of the sell signal bar.
ZH: 所以他们会把止损从上面移动到做空信号K线的低点下方
02:17 - 02:21
EN: As I said, when a trader uses the term “breakeven” or “breakeven stop,”
ZH: 当交易者说“打平”或“打平离场”的时候
02:21 - 02:24
EN: they don’t mean necessarily exactly breakeven,
ZH: 不一定是正好完全打平
02:24 - 02:27
EN: although in general when a person talks about a breakeven stop,
ZH: 尽管通常当一个人说“打平离场”的时候
02:27 - 02:32
EN: they’re talking about putting their stop exactly to their entry price.
ZH: 他指的是把止损移动到入场价格上
02:35 - 02:39
EN: In this particular case, let’s say you used an exact breakeven stop.
ZH: 在这个案例中，假设你想要精确地打平离场
02:39 - 02:42
EN: You sold below the low of this bar, you got filled right here.
ZH: 你在这根K线下方挂突破卖单，订单是在这里成交的
02:42 - 02:48
EN: The market went your way a little bit, and you were not happy
ZH: 市场按预期略微下跌， 但是你对后续的跟随并不满意，所以决定:
02:46 - 02:48
EN: with the follow-through and you decided,
ZH: 市场按预期略微下跌， 但是你对后续的跟随并不满意，所以决定:
02:48 - 02:51
EN: “Well, I’ll get out if it gets back to my entry price.”
ZH: “好吧，如果市场回到我的入场价格，我就离场”
02:51 - 02:54
EN: So you put a stop at your entry price and the market comes back,
ZH: 所以你把止损移动到入场价格，市场涨了回来
02:54 - 03:00
EN: hits that price and you get filled here, and all you lose is the commission
ZH: 打到了这个价格，突破买单成交， 你只是损失了手续费
03:00 - 03:03
EN: or maybe a bid/ask spread or maybe a little bit of slippage.
ZH: 或者只是点差，或者再加上一点点滑点
Slide 003
Time: 03:05
Bilingual Transcript
03:11 - 03:14
EN: I think one of the interesting things about a breakeven stop
ZH: 我觉得一件很有趣的事情是，
03:14 - 03:19
EN: is that there is no mathematical basis for a breakeven stop.
ZH: “打平止损法”并没有数学依据
03:20 - 03:25
EN: The main reason for using a breakeven stop is that you’re confused
ZH: 这么做的根本原因是：你（对市场）感到困惑与不安
03:25 - 03:28
EN: or you’re upset, and whenever that’s the case,
ZH: 而每当出现这种情绪的时候，
03:28 - 03:34
EN: it’s okay to get out for any reason, and sometimes the easiest decision
ZH: 出于任何理由离场都是可以的， 而有时最简单的决定就是把止损移动到打平的位置
03:32 - 03:34
EN: is simply to put your stop at breakeven.
ZH: 出于任何理由离场都是可以的， 而有时最简单的决定就是把止损移动到打平的位置
03:35 - 03:38
EN: Whenever you believe your objective is no longer reasonable,
ZH: 每当你认为你的目标不再合理
03:38 - 03:42
EN: it’s good to get out, and if the market is very close to your entry price,
ZH: 离场就是好的选择； 如果此时市场非常接近你的入场价格
03:42 - 03:45
EN: sometimes traders will quickly put their stop right at breakeven.
ZH: 一些交易者会迅速地把止损移动到打平的位置
03:48 - 03:52
EN: The reason why there’s no mathematical basis to a breakeven stop
ZH: 我认为“打平止损法”没有数学依据的原因是：
03:52 - 03:56
EN: is that your stop choice is not related to your entry price.
ZH: 止损在哪里，和你的入场价格是没有关系的
03:56 - 03:58
EN: It’s related to the price action.
ZH: 止损的位置只和价格行为有关
03:58 - 04:03
EN: It doesn’t matter where you sell – above this bar, below this bar, below this bar,
ZH: 不管你在哪里开仓做空——在它的上方，它的下方，它的下方
04:03 - 04:07
EN: above this bar, below that bar, selling this close,
ZH: 在它的上方，它的下方，或者在它的收盘卖出
04:07 - 04:10
EN: selling down here – the stop is the same.
ZH: 在这里卖出——止损的位置都是一样的
04:10 - 04:12
EN: It’s above the top of the bear leg.
ZH: 都是放在下跌波段的起跌点上方
04:12 - 04:16
EN: To use a breakeven stop, there’s no mathematical basis to it.
ZH: 所以打平离场并没有数学的依据
04:16 - 04:18
EN: It’s simply an emotional thing.
ZH: 只是一种符合情绪的做法
04:18 - 04:21
EN: Sometimes you’re just too upset, the market’s moving fast,
ZH: 有时价格变化太快，你感到惊慌失措
04:21 - 04:23
EN: you have to do something, you want to get out
ZH: 你感觉自己必须做点什么事情，你想要离场，
04:23 - 04:26
EN: - a lot of traders just quickly move their stop to breakeven.
ZH: ——所以很多人就把止损移动到打平的位置
04:26 - 04:27
EN: And that is okay.
ZH: 这是ok的
04:27 - 04:28
EN: We’re people.
ZH: 我们都是人
04:28 - 04:29
EN: We have feelings.
ZH: 我们都有情绪
04:29 - 04:33
EN: We’re not machines, and we take time to make decisions.
ZH: 我们不是无情的交易机器， 我们需要足够的时间来做决定
04:33 - 04:36
EN: If you feel like your premise is wrong, you have to get out.
ZH: 如果你觉得你的假设是错误的，你就必须离场
04:43 - 04:48
EN: As I said, it’s always best to select the stop based upon the price action,
ZH: 正如之前所说，最好根据价格行为来决定止损的位置
04:48 - 04:51
EN: but a breakeven stop does make sense when you’re scalping
ZH: 但打平离场也是有意义的，比如剥头皮的时候
04:51 - 04:56
EN: and in one other special instance: a second breakout test.
ZH: 以及另外一种情况：第2次突破回测
04:56 - 05:02
EN: A lot of times traders will let the market come back to their entry price
ZH: 只要趋势（或交易的前提）还成立， 很多时候交易者能够接受市场回到他们的入场价格
05:00 - 05:06
EN: as long as the trend resumes, but they do not want the market
ZH: 只要趋势（或交易的前提）还成立， 很多时候交易者能够接受市场回到他们的入场价格 但他们不希望市场第2次回测入场价格
05:03 - 05:06
EN: to come back to their entry price a second time.
ZH: 但他们不希望市场第2次回测入场价格
05:07 - 05:10
EN: If it does, it usually means the trade is no longer valid.
ZH: 如果真的第2次回测了，通常说明这笔交易已经不再成立
05:10 - 05:15
EN: In that particular instance, it then makes sense to exit with a breakeven stop.
ZH: 在那种情况下，打平离场是合理的选择
Slide 004
Time: 05:20
Bilingual Transcript
05:24 - 05:28
EN: Scalpers a lot of times will use breakeven stops.
ZH: 剥头皮交易者很多时候会选择打平离场
05:29 - 05:33
EN: They’ll take a trade, the market goes to their profit-taking limit order price
ZH: 在入场之后，市场几乎达到了他们止盈限价单的价格
05:33 - 05:36
EN: or very close to it; they do not want the market to come back
ZH: 他们不希望盈利变成亏损，
05:36 - 05:40
EN: to their entry price, so they’ll quickly move their stop to breakeven.
ZH: 所以会迅速地把止损移动到打平的位置
05:47 - 05:50
EN: When the market gets very close to their target,
ZH: 当市场离目标价格非常接近的时候，
05:50 - 05:54
EN: then the risk is to their entry price or their original stop
ZH: 风险就是回撤到入场价或初始止损的距离，
05:54 - 05:59
EN: and maybe four or five times greater than the remaining reward.
ZH: 可能是剩余利润的4到5倍（注：比如已经赚了8， 距离目标还差2，冒着利润回撤8的风险，去赚最后的2）
05:59 - 06:04
EN: At that point you need an extremely high probability to remain in the trade,
ZH: 此时你需要非常高的概率，才能够继续持仓 （注：因为盈亏比越来越差了）
06:04 - 06:07
EN: and if you get a reversal or start to get a reversal,
ZH: 如果市场开始反转，
06:07 - 06:10
EN: then the probability is no longer high,
ZH: 那么说明概率就没有那么高了
06:10 - 06:12
EN: and therefore the premise is no longer valid.
ZH: 因此前提不再成立
06:12 - 06:14
EN: You have very little reward left.
ZH: 剩下的利润空间很小
06:14 - 06:17
EN: You have a lot of risk relative to the reward.
ZH: 相对于利润，你的风险很大 （注：利润回撤的风险）
06:17 - 06:24
EN: You need a high probability, but the market is coming back against you,
ZH: 你需要高胜率，但市场正在回调， 所以胜率没有那么高
06:22 - 06:24
EN: and therefore you do not have high probability.
ZH: 你需要高胜率，但市场正在回调， 所以胜率没有那么高
06:24 - 06:29
EN: A lot of traders need to get out, and when the market’s starting to come back,
ZH: 许多交易者需要离场，而当市场开始回调的时候，
06:29 - 06:32
EN: it’s probably very close to their original entry price.
ZH: 可能已经很接近他们的初始入场价格了 （注：因为剥头皮交易的距离很短）
06:32 - 06:35
EN: Many traders just quickly move their stop to breakeven
ZH: 许多交易者只是迅速把止损移动到打平的位置
06:35 - 06:39
EN: or maybe a tick better than breakeven, maybe a tick worse than breakeven.
ZH: 或者移动到打平价格上下1个tick的地方
06:39 - 06:44
EN: For Forex traders, maybe a pip or two better or worse than breakeven.
ZH: 对于外汇交易者来说，可能是打平价格上下1~2个pips
06:49 - 06:52
EN: Let’s say a trader sells below this bar.
ZH: 假设一个交易者在这根K线下方卖出做空
06:52 - 06:54
EN: They can have a Double Top, neckline,
ZH: 双顶，颈线，
06:54 - 06:57
EN: hoping for a break below and a Measured Move down.
ZH: 他们希望能向下跌破，跌到MM目标位
06:57 - 06:58
EN: The rally is not strong.
ZH: 并不是很强的上涨趋势
06:58 - 07:00
EN: It’s probably a bull leg in a Trading Range,
ZH: 很有可能只是震荡区间内的上涨波段
07:00 - 07:04
EN: so they have a Double Top at the top of a Trading Range.
ZH: 所以他们在震荡区间上沿看到了这个双顶的反转结构
07:06 - 07:09
EN: Original stop, probably above the top of this bar
ZH: 初始止损在这个K线的高点上方
07:09 - 07:16
EN: because it’s also above the Double Top, and you’re taking a short believing
ZH: 也是在这个双顶的上方—— 你是根据这个双顶做空的，所以价格不应该超过它的高点
07:14 - 07:16
EN: that you have a Double Top – which you do.
ZH: 也是在这个双顶的上方—— 你是根据这个双顶做空的，所以价格不应该超过它的高点
07:20 - 07:24
EN: And let’s say you had a profit-taking limit order right here.
ZH: 假设你把止盈的限价买单挂在这里
07:24 - 07:30
EN: You made some calculation that this was a good location to exit with a scalp,
ZH: 你做了一些计算，认为这是一个剥头皮止盈的好地方
07:30 - 07:33
EN: and the market came very, very close to your scalp
ZH: 市场非常非常接近你的目标位
07:33 - 07:37
EN: and it did not fill your order, and then it started to reverse up.
ZH: 但没有成交，然后开始反转上涨
07:37 - 07:39
EN: What do you do?
ZH: 你该怎么办？
07:44 - 07:48
EN: Some traders will exit on the reversal up or on the second reversal up.
ZH: 一些交易者会在反转上涨时离场，或在第2次反转上涨时离场
07:48 - 07:52
EN: Other traders will give it time just in case we have one more push down,
ZH: 一些交易者会继续持有，给市场反弹的空间， 因为可能还有一段下跌
07:52 - 07:56
EN: and a lot of those traders do not want the market
ZH: 而且这些交易者不希望市场回到他们的入场价格
07:54 - 07:56
EN: to come back to their entry price.
ZH: 而且这些交易者不希望市场回到他们的入场价格
07:56 - 08:00
EN: They do not want to take a loss after coming so close to a profit.
ZH: 曾经离止盈目标这么近，他们不希望这笔交易最终变成亏损
08:00 - 08:02
EN: They’ll simply move their stop to breakeven,
ZH: 所以他们直接把止损移动到打平的位置
08:02 - 08:05
EN: and then they’ll get filled right here.
ZH: 然后他们会在这里成交
Slide 005
Time: 08:10
Bilingual Transcript
08:15 - 08:19
EN: If a bear is very quick, he can move his stop down to above the high of this bar
ZH: 如果一个空头的反应足够快， 他可以把止损移动到这个K线的高点上方
08:19 - 08:24
EN: or above the high of this bar and end up with a little bit of a profit
ZH: 或这个K线的高点上方，最终可以小赚离场
08:24 - 08:26
EN: - a smaller profit than what he intended to get,
ZH: ——比他预期的利润要小一些
08:26 - 08:29
EN: but better than having it come back to his breakeven stop.
ZH: 但至少比打平离场要好
08:35 - 08:38
EN: For example, the bear might try to exit above this bar.
ZH: 例如，空头会在这根K线的上方离场
08:38 - 08:42
EN: A small Double Bottom, a second reversal up from below this bar
ZH: 小双底，第2次反转上涨（高2）
08:42 - 08:46
EN: - maybe he’ll buy above the high of a bull bar closing on its high
ZH: ——或者，这根阳线收在最高， 空头会在它的上方离场
08:46 - 08:50
EN: and get filled here and end up with a small scalp, smaller than he intended.
ZH: 订单在这里成交，最终这是一笔很小的剥头皮交易， 比预期的利润小
08:56 - 08:59
EN: That’s still basically a breakeven trade.
ZH: 这基本上还是一笔打平的交易
08:59 - 09:03
EN: It’s a small profit, smaller than what the scalper intended.
ZH: 利润很小，小于剥头皮交易者的预期
09:03 - 09:06
EN: Most traders would call that a breakeven trade.
ZH: 所以大部分交易者会把它看作是打平的交易 （注：很小的小赚、小亏，其实都是打平）
Slide 006
Time: 09:10
Bilingual Transcript
09:16 - 09:18
EN: Different ways to draw this.
ZH: 这里存在多个结构
09:18 - 09:22
EN: Some traders would see this as a Wedge – three pushes down, one, two, three.
ZH: 一些交易者把它看作是楔形，3次向下推动——1，2，3
09:22 - 09:25
EN: I know this is a small push down, but it led to a big reversal up.
ZH: 尽管（1和3）的推动很小，但最终导致了大的反转上涨 （注：音画不同步，视频快，声音慢）
09:25 - 09:27
EN: It’s a significant bottom.
ZH: 所以这是一个重要的底部结构
09:27 - 09:30
EN: And then we’re also testing this prior low.
ZH: 同时，价格测试了前期的低点 （注：左边的重要低点）
09:30 - 09:32
EN: You can also call it a smaller Wedge here.
ZH: 这里也有一个更小的楔形底 （注：右边这里）
09:32 - 09:35
EN: We have a Double Bottom and a bear breakout,
ZH: 这是一个小双底，然后向下跌破
09:35 - 09:37
EN: so you have three pushes down – one, two, three.
ZH: 所以总共是3次推动——1，2，3
09:37 - 09:39
EN: Any time you have a Double Bottom
ZH: 每当你看到一个双底
09:39 - 09:42
EN: and a breakout that reverses up, it’s a type of Wedge.
ZH: 向下跌破后又反转上涨，这也是3推楔形的一种
09:42 - 09:47
EN: And here we have a Micro Double Bottom – down, up, down, up.
ZH: 这里有一个小双底——下跌，上涨；下跌，上涨
09:47 - 09:50
EN: It’s a reasonable buy, a good-looking buy signal bar.
ZH: 这是一个合理的买点，而且有漂亮的做多信号K线
09:50 - 09:52
EN: It’s a reasonable swing.
ZH: 这是一个合理的波段机会
09:52 - 09:56
EN: The channel is too tight, probably, for a scalp.
ZH: 通道太窄（第一次上涨大概率只是小反弹）， 所以一些多头只是做剥头皮
09:55 - 09:56
EN: Maybe you can get a scalp.
ZH: 通道太窄（第一次上涨大概率只是小反弹）， 所以一些多头只是做剥头皮
09:56 - 09:59
EN: Some traders would take this for a swing trade,
ZH: 一些交易者想做波段交易
09:59 - 10:02
EN: betting that maybe we’ll retrace 50% of the selloff.
ZH: 押注也许会有50%的反弹幅度
10:02 - 10:05
EN: The selloff lacks consecutive big bear bars.
ZH: 左边的抛售没有连续的大阴线
10:05 - 10:07
EN: It’s probably a bear leg in a Trading Range,
ZH: 大概率只是震荡区间中的下跌波段
10:07 - 10:11
EN: and we are reversing up near a potential bottom to the range.
ZH: 而现在市场正在从区间的底部开始反转上涨
10:11 - 10:13
EN: Maybe we’ll get a couple legs up.
ZH: 也许会有几段上涨
10:14 - 10:18
EN: Let’s say – we have an ioi here – he buys above the bull bar,
ZH: 这里有一个ioi组合（内-外-内）， 假设一个多头在这根阳线上方买入
10:18 - 10:21
EN: gets filled here, and puts his stop below the low.
ZH: 订单在这里成交（绿色框框），然后把止损放在低点下方
10:26 - 10:29
EN: There’s a breakout, and then there’s a pullback.
ZH: 向上突破，然后回调
10:29 - 10:31
EN: To me, this is a breakout test.
ZH: 我把它看作是突破后的回测
10:31 - 10:34
EN: Even though it fell below the high of the signal bar
ZH: 尽管它跌破了信号K线的高点——
10:34 - 10:37
EN: - that means it fell below the entry price as well
ZH: 也就是说，跌破了多头的入场价格
10:37 - 10:40
EN: - this pullback is simply a test of the resolve of the bulls.
ZH: ——这个回调只是在测试多头的决心
10:40 - 10:43
EN: It’s testing the breakout above the high of this bar.
ZH: 突破信号K的高点之后，对它进行回测
10:48 - 10:54
EN: If you’re swing trading, most bulls will allow the market
ZH: 对于波段交易而言， 大部分多头能够接受市场回调到他们的入场价格之下
10:52 - 10:54
EN: to come back below their entry price.
ZH: 对于波段交易而言， 大部分多头能够接受市场回调到他们的入场价格之下
10:54 - 10:56
EN: They’ll rely on their stop.
ZH: 他们会依赖他们的初始止损
Slide 007
Time: 10:55
Bilingual Transcript
11:02 - 11:06
EN: However, once the bull trend resumes – we have another breakout,
ZH: 然而，一旦上涨趋势恢复——再次向上突破
11:06 - 11:12
EN: 3 consecutive bull bars – a lot of traders do not want the market
ZH: 连续三根阳线——多头不希望市场再次回测他们的入场价格
11:10 - 11:12
EN: to come back to their entry price a second time.
ZH: 连续三根阳线——多头不希望市场再次回测他们的入场价格
11:12 - 11:16
EN: If it does, they conclude the bull trend is not valid.
ZH: 如果第2次回测，他们就会认为上涨趋势已经不再有效
11:23 - 11:26
EN: If this pullback falls below that entry price
ZH: 如果这个回调又跌破了那个入场价格
11:26 - 11:30
EN: or the signal bar high a second time, especially if it falls below this low,
ZH: 第2次跌破信号K线的高点，尤其是如果跌破这个低点
11:30 - 11:34
EN: traders will assume that instead of a bull trend,
ZH: 交易者就会认为这不是上涨趋势
11:34 - 11:39
EN: the market is probably going to go sideways in a Trading Range
ZH: 市场大概率只是在震荡区间内横盘，甚至会下跌
11:37 - 11:39
EN: or possibly even reverse down.
ZH: 市场大概率只是在震荡区间内横盘，甚至会下跌
11:39 - 11:42
EN: We have a Double Top, neckline.
ZH: 这是双顶，颈线
11:42 - 11:44
EN: We could fall for a Measured Move down.
ZH: 也许会下跌到MM目标位
11:47 - 11:52
EN: This would be the breakeven stop, just a little bit above the high of this bar.
ZH: 打平离场的价格在这里（红线），在信号K线的上方1个tick
11:52 - 11:55
EN: It’s hard to see.
ZH: 图比较小，可能看得不是很清楚
11:53 - 11:55
EN: You could say it’s at the high of the bar.
ZH: 图比较小，可能看得不是很清楚
11:56 - 11:58
EN: The market rallied the way the bulls expected.
ZH: 按照多头的预期，市场出现了反弹
11:58 - 12:01
EN: It tested the resolve of the bulls.
ZH: 然后它测试了多头的决心
12:01 - 12:04
EN: It tested below the entry price, and it’s testing again.
ZH: 它回测到了入场价格的下方，然后再次测试
12:04 - 12:08
EN: A lot of traders will get out if it hits that entry price a second time.
ZH: 如果第2次碰到入场价格，很多交易者会离场
12:09 - 12:11
EN: They assume that if the bulls are good,
ZH: 他们认为，如果多头真的很强势，
12:11 - 12:15
EN: they’ll buy heavily right above their original entry price,
ZH: 就应该会在初始入场价格上方大量买入，
12:16 - 12:20
EN: trying to prevent the market from coming down, hoping to get a second leg up.
ZH: 去阻止市场下跌，然后制造第2段上涨
12:21 - 12:24
EN: Therefore, some traders, if the market goes their way,
ZH: 所以一些交易者是这样做的：如果市场上涨，
12:24 - 12:27
EN: falls below their entry price and then goes their way a second time,
ZH: 然后回调，跌破他们的入场价格；然后第2次上涨
12:27 - 12:31
EN: they’ll get out breakeven just above the high of that bar.
ZH: 此时他们会把止损移动到打平的位置
Slide 008
Time: 12:35
Bilingual Transcript
12:40 - 12:45
EN: The second breakout reversed up from above the top of the buy signal bar
ZH: 第2次回调没有跌破入场价格，而是在信号K的上方开始反转上涨
12:45 - 12:48
EN: and it formed Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 形成了低点抬高的大反转
12:48 - 12:51
EN: A Double Bottom, good bull bar here, a bull bar here,
ZH: 双底，这根阳线很不错，然后这里有小阳线
12:51 - 12:54
EN: and then a good bull bar here, and it led to a swing up.
ZH: 又出现了一根很好的阳线，形成了上涨的波段
12:59 - 13:04
EN: Bulls will buy above the high of this doji inside bar,
ZH: 多头会在这个十字星孕线的高点上方买入
13:04 - 13:07
EN: and especially above the high of this good-looking bull bar.
ZH: 尤其会在这个漂亮的阳线上方买入
13:14 - 13:18
EN: This is, I would call, a perfect breakout test.
ZH: 我会称之为一次完美的突破测试
13:18 - 13:22
EN: It missed the breakeven stop by about 1 tick or 1 pip.
ZH: 它差一点点就要碰到打平的止损单了
13:22 - 13:25
EN: The bulls defended their breakeven stops.
ZH: 多头捍卫了他们的入场价
13:25 - 13:28
EN: They prevented the breakeven stops from being hit.
ZH: 没有让打平的止损单被碰到
13:28 - 13:30
EN: That is a sign of strong bulls,
ZH: 这是多头强势的信号
13:30 - 13:34
EN: and it increases the chances that they’ll get a swing up.
ZH: 增加了他们制造上涨波段的机会
13:34 - 13:37
EN: So once this starts to go up, bulls are confident we’ll go higher,
ZH: 所以一旦开始反转上涨，多头就会变得更有信心
13:37 - 13:40
EN: and that’s why we got this big bull bar and a follow-through bar.
ZH: 这就是为什么出现了这根大阳线以及后面的跟随
13:40 - 13:42
EN: And the bears also gave up.
ZH: 同时，空头放弃了
13:42 - 13:44
EN: This is bears giving up.
ZH: 这是空头的放弃K线
13:44 - 13:47
EN: They tried to get below that breakeven stop,
ZH: 他们尝试跌破多头的入场价
13:47 - 13:50
EN: believing that if they could, the bulls would give up.
ZH: 空头相信，如果他们能打掉多头的止损，多头就会放弃
13:50 - 13:52
EN: Instead, it’s the bears who gave up.
ZH: 然而，最终是空头自己放弃了
Slide 009
Time: 13:56
Bilingual Transcript
14:01 - 14:07
EN: When there’s a bull trend, bulls like to put their stops below the bottom
ZH: 在上涨趋势里，多头喜欢把他们的止损放在最近一次强势上涨的起涨点下方
14:05 - 14:07
EN: of the most recent strong leg up,
ZH: 在上涨趋势里，多头喜欢把他们的止损放在最近一次强势上涨的起涨点下方
14:07 - 14:11
EN: below the bottom of the most recent major Higher Low.
ZH: 放在最近一个重要低点的下方
14:14 - 14:16
EN: Here we have a Buy Climax, a breakout.
ZH: 多头突破，也是抢购高潮
14:16 - 14:19
EN: Some bulls will put their stop here, but this is a magnet.
ZH: 一些多头会把止损放在这里，但这是一个磁铁
14:19 - 14:24
EN: I usually use a wider stop, down at the bottom of the bull leg.
ZH: 我通常使用更宽的止损，放在上涨波段的起涨点下方
14:24 - 14:26
EN: It’s reasonable to put your stop here.
ZH: 止损放在这里也是合理的
14:26 - 14:29
EN: The market often comes down and tests it.
ZH: 但市场经常会下跌去测试它 （注：因为抢购高潮的起点是回调的目标位）
14:29 - 14:34
EN: Very often, in fact, it goes a tick or so below it and then it can reverse up.
ZH: 事实上，经常会跌破1个tick，然后立刻反转上涨
14:34 - 14:39
EN: Whenever you get this strong bull breakout, strong reversal, you’ve got big up,
ZH: 每当强势的抢购高潮之后出现同样强势的反转下跌，
14:39 - 14:42
EN: big down, big confusion, usually the market goes sideways
ZH: 这就变成了大涨、大跌、大的困惑，通常是横盘的特征
14:42 - 14:46
EN: and then decides whether it’s going to resume up or reverse down.
ZH: 然后才会决定到底是继续上涨，还是反转下跌
14:55 - 14:59
EN: When you have a perfect test of the bottom of the bull breakout like this
ZH: 如果价格完美测试了多头突破的起涨点，
14:59 - 15:04
EN: and then a reversal up, you’re probably going to get a test back up to the high.
ZH: 然后开始反转上涨，那么很可能会涨回到前期的高点
15:04 - 15:06
EN: Big up, big down, big confusion.
ZH: 大涨，大跌，大的困惑
15:06 - 15:08
EN: Trading Range likely.
ZH: 大概率是震荡区间
15:08 - 15:11
EN: Bull leg in a Trading Range, bear leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 震荡区间内的上涨波段，震荡区间内的下跌波段
15:11 - 15:13
EN: Probably going to be followed by another bull leg
ZH: 大概率还会有一段上涨，
15:13 - 15:16
EN: and another test of the top of the range.
ZH: 再次去测试区间的上沿
15:17 - 15:19
EN: Bulls are trying to defend their stop.
ZH: 多头正在尝试捍卫他们的止损
15:19 - 15:23
EN: They know the bears want to break below the bottom of the final Buy Climax
ZH: 他们知道空头想要跌破抢购高潮的起涨点
15:23 - 15:25
EN: and then hope for a Measured Move down.
ZH: 然后想要继续下跌到MM目标位
15:25 - 15:29
EN: The bulls hope for a test of that low, basically a Double Bottom.
ZH: 而多头希望对这个起点的测试会形成一个双底
15:30 - 15:33
EN: I know this is not the bottom of a selloff, like this
ZH: 这个低点不是下跌形成的低点——
15:33 - 15:36
EN: - bottom of a selloff, bottom of a selloff
ZH: 不像这个低点，这个低点——
15:36 - 15:40
EN: - but it’s the bottom of a bull breakout, and therefore it’s a type of bottom.
ZH: 但它是多头突破的起涨点，所以也可以形成底部
15:40 - 15:43
EN: And if the market comes down there and reverses up again,
ZH: 如果市场跌下来，然后反转上涨
15:43 - 15:44
EN: you have a Double Bottom.
ZH: 这就形成了一个双底
15:44 - 15:48
EN: Two different types of bottoms – the bottom of a bull breakout
ZH: 两种不同的低点——多头突破的起点，
15:48 - 15:52
EN: and the bottom of a selloff – but it’s still a type of a Double Bottom.
ZH: 下跌形成的低点——形成了这样的双底
15:52 - 15:56
EN: Bulls place limit orders to buy just above that low and at that low,
ZH: 多头会在这个低点挂限价买单，
15:56 - 15:59
EN: and they also place stop orders to buy the reversal up.
ZH: 也会在反转上涨的时候挂突破买单
16:04 - 16:06
EN: And the same is true here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
16:06 - 16:09
EN: The market’s coming back down to that critical price.
ZH: 市场正在回调到那个关键的价格
16:09 - 16:13
EN: The bulls will buy with limit orders at and just above that price,
ZH: 多头会在那个价格上方挂限价买单
16:13 - 16:16
EN: and they’ll buy on a reversal up.
ZH: 也会在反转上涨的时候挂突破买单
16:16 - 16:19
EN: Their concern is, if it falls below,
ZH: 他们担心的是，如果起涨点被跌破
16:19 - 16:21
EN: their premise of a bull trend is no longer valid.
ZH: 那么上涨趋势的前提就不再有效
16:21 - 16:28
EN: The market will either remain in a Trading Range,
ZH: 市场要么继续震荡，可能会再跌一些； 甚至会反转成为下降趋势
16:24 - 16:28
EN: maybe falling a little bit lower, or it’ll reverse into a bear trend.
ZH: 市场要么继续震荡，可能会再跌一些； 甚至会反转成为下降趋势
16:28 - 16:32
EN: We have a bull trend, a bear breakout, Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 上涨趋势，空头突破， （回测高点之后）变成高点降低的大反转
16:32 - 16:39
EN: The bears have a reasonable sell pattern and the bulls are trying to prevent
ZH: 这是一个合理的做空结构， 而多头要防止市场跌破这个重要的低点
16:36 - 16:39
EN: the market from falling below this Higher Low.
ZH: 这是一个合理的做空结构， 而多头要防止市场跌破这个重要的低点
16:39 - 16:41
EN: It’s also a neckline of a Double Top.
ZH: 它也是这个双顶的颈线
16:42 - 16:45
EN: Some bears will sell if it falls below here.
ZH: 一些空头会在跌破颈线的时候开仓做空
16:45 - 16:50
EN: You’ll have the Lower High Major Trend Reversal bears happy
ZH: 押注高点降低的大反转的空头，看到颈线被跌破，会非常高兴
16:49 - 16:55
EN: that we’re breaking below the neckline, and you’ll have the Double Top bears
ZH: 押注高点降低的大反转的空头，看到颈线被跌破，会非常高兴 押注双顶反转的空头，会在颈线被跌破时入场做空， 期待继续下跌到MM目标位
16:52 - 16:55
EN: selling, betting that we’ll fall for a Measured Move down.
ZH: 押注双顶反转的空头，会在颈线被跌破时入场做空， 期待继续下跌到MM目标位
17:02 - 17:08
EN: If you’re buying right above this low or on the reversal up, your risk is small,
ZH: 如果你在这个低点上方买入， 或在反转上涨时买入，那么你的风险很小，
17:08 - 17:14
EN: and that usually means the probability is small as well,
ZH: 这通常意味着胜率也很低，经常会被止损离场
17:12 - 17:14
EN: and you’ll get stopped out a lot.
ZH: 这通常意味着胜率也很低，经常会被止损离场
17:14 - 17:19
EN: However, if you do get stopped out and there’s a reversal up from below this bar,
ZH: 然而，如果你真的止损离场了， 但是价格很快就从下方反转回来
17:19 - 17:22
EN: the bulls will assume that we’re at the bottom of a Trading Range
ZH: 那么多头会认为这是震荡区间的下沿
17:22 - 17:26
EN: and therefore it’s reasonable to buy again if they get stopped out.
ZH: 所以止损之后再次买入，也是合理的做法
Slide 010
Time: 17:30
Bilingual Transcript
17:34 - 17:36
EN: Strong breakout.
ZH: 强势的突破
17:37 - 17:41
EN: A lot of bulls will buy around the bottom of this breakout
ZH: 很多多头会在这个起涨点附近挂限价买单
17:41 - 17:45
EN: because the bulls bought strongly here, and we rallied strongly.
ZH: 因为之前多头在这里大量买入，制造了强势的上涨
17:45 - 17:48
EN: If we come down to that price level again,
ZH: 如果再次回到这个区域
17:48 - 17:53
EN: they’ll look to buy again near the price or as the market reverses up from it.
ZH: 他们就会在这里挂限价买单， 或者在反转上涨时用突破买单入场
17:55 - 17:59
EN: Here we have a small Double Bottom, testing the bottom of the Buy Climax.
ZH: 这里有一个小双底，测试抢购高潮的起涨点
17:59 - 18:00
EN: Bulls will buy.
ZH: 多头会买入
18:00 - 18:03
EN: Clearly disappointed by this.
ZH: 显然对此感到失望
18:08 - 18:13
EN: And the bulls who put their stop just below this low get stopped out here.
ZH: 一些多头把止损放在这个低点下方， 他们在这里被止损离场
18:13 - 18:14
EN: But that’s okay.
ZH: 但是没有关系
18:15 - 18:19
EN: Bad follow-through on the bear breakout, bulls will buy a reversal up,
ZH: 空头突破后的跟随不好，多头会在反转上涨时再次买入
18:19 - 18:23
EN: betting that instead of a bear trend, this is a bear leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 押注这不是一个下降趋势，只是震荡区间内的下跌波段而已
18:23 - 18:26
EN: This is a reasonable location for the bottom of the range.
ZH: 这是一个合理的区间下沿
18:26 - 18:33
EN: There was strong buying here before; maybe bulls will buy again
ZH: 前期这里有强势的买入； 如果空头突破失败，并开始反转上涨，多头会再次买入
18:30 - 18:33
EN: if the market reverses up from that bear breakout.
ZH: 前期这里有强势的买入； 如果空头突破失败，并开始反转上涨，多头会再次买入
18:34 - 18:39
EN: And therefore, bulls will buy on a stop
ZH: 所以，多头会在这个K线的高点上方挂突破买单， 订单会在这里成交
18:37 - 18:39
EN: above the high of this bar and they’ll get filled here.
ZH: 所以，多头会在这个K线的高点上方挂突破买单， 订单会在这里成交
18:39 - 18:42
EN: Again, another breakout, bad follow-through.
ZH: 同样，再次跌破，跟随不好
18:42 - 18:47
EN: Bulls will buy on a stop above the high of this bar
ZH: 多头会在这个K线的高点上方挂突破买单， 订单会在这里成交
18:45 - 18:47
EN: and they’ll get filled right here.
ZH: 多头会在这个K线的高点上方挂突破买单， 订单会在这里成交
18:48 - 18:53
EN: As long as the premise is valid, bulls will keep buying on the reversals up.
ZH: 只要前提仍然成立，多头就会继续在反转上涨时买入
18:53 - 18:57
EN: Their premise at this point is that we’re in a Trading Range
ZH: 此时，他们的前提是，目前市场出于震荡区间
18:57 - 19:00
EN: and they’re buying a failed breakout below the bottom of the range.
ZH: 如果跌破区间底部失败，他们就买入做多
19:01 - 19:04
EN: When they were buying here, their premise was that we were in a bull trend.
ZH: 之前他们在这里买入时，他们的前提是上涨趋势
19:04 - 19:07
EN: When they bought here, they were hoping for a bull trend.
ZH: 当他们在这里买入时，他们希望上涨趋势继续
19:07 - 19:11
EN: But once we fell below here, I think the bulls changed
ZH: 然而，一旦跌破这里，就不一样了
19:11 - 19:13
EN: and they started trading it like a Trading Range
ZH: 多头开始按照震荡区间一样去交易
19:13 - 19:17
EN: - look to buy reversals up from below, looking for at least a scalp.
ZH: ——在反转上涨时买入，至少做一笔剥头皮交易
19:17 - 19:21
EN: The bears will do the opposite, when the market goes above a high.
ZH: 空头会做相反的事情，当市场上涨到前期高点时
19:21 - 19:25
EN: They’ll assume it’s a Trading Range now as well, since we fell below key support.
ZH: 他们也会认为这是一个震荡区间， 因为下方关键的低点被跌破了
19:25 - 19:29
EN: They’ll look to sell at and above prior highs,
ZH: 所以空头会在前期的高点挂限价卖单
19:29 - 19:32
EN: betting that the breakout will fail and that we’ll come back down.
ZH: 押注向上的突破会失败，会再次下跌
19:36 - 19:42
EN: Some bulls will say, okay, it’s a bull breakout, and yes,
ZH: 一些多头会说：“强势的多头突破，起涨点被跌破了
19:40 - 19:42
EN: we fell below the low of the bull breakout
ZH: 一些多头会说：“强势的多头突破，起涨点被跌破了
19:42 - 19:44
EN: - but we’re still above the bottom of the bull trend,
ZH: 但市场仍然在整个上涨趋势的起涨点上方”
19:44 - 19:47
EN: and instead of putting a stop just below here,
ZH: 所以他们没有把止损放在这里
19:47 - 19:50
EN: they’ll use a wider stop below this part of the bull leg
ZH: 而是使用更宽的止损，放在这个低点下方，
19:50 - 19:52
EN: or below the bottom of the bull trend.
ZH: 或者放在整个上涨趋势的起涨点下方
19:53 - 19:56
EN: That’s because bulls know that when you get a strong breakout,
ZH: 这是因为多头知道，出现强势突破的时候
19:56 - 19:58
EN: a lot of times the market comes down to the bottom of the breakout.
ZH: 很多时候市场会回测突破的起点
19:58 - 20:02
EN: Sometimes a little bit below especially when the breakout is late in a bull trend.
ZH: 尤其是在上涨趋势的后期，有时会略微跌破一点 （再注：高潮的起点是目标位）
20:02 - 20:06
EN: There’s an increased risk that it’s an Exhaustion Gap – for example,
ZH: （越到后期）这是竭尽型缺口的风险越来越大
20:06 - 20:09
EN: the gap below this low and the breakout point
ZH: ——比如，这个低点和突破点之间存在缺口
20:09 - 20:12
EN: here probably will close at some point.
ZH: 大概率在某个时候会被填补
20:12 - 20:13
EN: It tried to close here.
ZH: 这里尝试补缺口
20:13 - 20:17
EN: It did close here, and very often – I would say half the time,
ZH: 这里把缺口补掉了； 而且经常——我认为有一半的时间，
20:17 - 20:24
EN: if you start to reverse down, you’re going to get to the bottom
ZH: 如果开始反转下跌，多头突破的起涨点会被测试， 通常会略微跌破一点点
20:20 - 20:24
EN: of the bull breakout, and usually a little bit below.
ZH: 如果开始反转下跌，多头突破的起涨点会被测试， 通常会略微跌破一点点
20:25 - 20:27
EN: And bulls do not want to get stopped out.
ZH: 一些多头不想被止损离场
20:28 - 20:31
EN: They can, and they can buy again on the reversal up,
ZH: 一种方法是先止损，然后在反转上涨时再次买入
20:31 - 20:33
EN: but a lot of bulls instead will look at this and say,
ZH: 但很多多头会说：
20:33 - 20:35
EN: “Ahh, it’s not really a bear trend.
ZH: “额，这个不是真的下降趋势
20:35 - 20:37
EN: It looks more like a bear leg in a Trading Range”.
ZH: 它看起来更像是震荡区间内的下跌波段而已”
20:37 - 20:40
EN: Bear breakout, bad follow-through, a second reversal up.
ZH: 空头突破，跟随不好，第2次反转上涨
20:40 - 20:43
EN: Bear breakout, bad follow-through, bear breakout, bad follow-through.
ZH: 空头突破，跟随不好； 空头突破，跟随不好
20:43 - 20:46
EN: And therefore they rely on a wide stop
ZH: 所以他们依赖一个比较宽的止损
20:46 - 20:51
EN: and they’ll buy on reversals up and scalp out.
ZH: 然后在反转上涨时买入，剥头皮赚快钱
20:51 - 20:56
EN: They don’t want to keep getting stopped out, like buy here, stopped out.
ZH: 他们不想经常被止损—— 比如在这里买入，止损，然后再次买入
20:55 - 20:56
EN: Buy again here.
ZH: 他们不想经常被止损—— 比如在这里买入，止损，然后再次买入
20:56 - 20:59
EN: They’ll buy here and leave their stop down here,
ZH: 他们宁愿在这里买入，把止损设置在这里
20:59 - 21:02
EN: and then maybe get out here on the reversal down.
ZH: 然后在反转下跌时离场
21:02 - 21:09
EN: Basically a breakeven trade, but they’re hoping instead
ZH: 几乎也是一笔打平的交易； 他们预期的是有更大的涨幅，让他们做一笔剥头皮交易
21:07 - 21:09
EN: that the market went up higher and they could make a scalp,
ZH: 几乎也是一笔打平的交易； 他们预期的是有更大的涨幅，让他们做一笔剥头皮交易
21:09 - 21:11
EN: but sometimes it does not.
ZH: 但不是每次都可以成功的
Slide 011
Time: 21:15
Bilingual Transcript
21:20 - 21:24
EN: We have a Double Bottom, a neckline, a strong breakout,
ZH: 双底，颈线，强势突破
21:24 - 21:27
EN: and a perfect breakout test of the breakout point.
ZH: 完美地回测了突破点
21:29 - 21:33
EN: We got a pullback from the breakout, and this is a potential Measuring Gap.
ZH: 突破之后的回调，这是一个潜在的测量型缺口
21:34 - 21:36
EN: The market’s trying to resume up.
ZH: 市场正在尝试恢复上涨趋势
21:36 - 21:40
EN: Perfect breakout test of this high, so maybe we get a Measured Move up
ZH: 完美地回测了这个突破点，可能会上涨到MM目标位
21:40 - 21:44
EN: from either of these lows to here and then up there.
ZH: 从这个或这个低点，到这里，往上翻一倍
21:51 - 21:56
EN: We have a second breakout test, and it did not hit the breakout point.
ZH: 第2次突破回测，但没有碰到突破点
21:56 - 21:58
EN: It’s slightly above this high, and that’s bullish.
ZH: 它略高于这个高点，对多头有利
21:58 - 22:00
EN: We have a decent bull bar here.
ZH: 这里有一个不错的阳线
22:01 - 22:05
EN: The bulls defended their breakeven stop, and that’s a sign of strong bulls.
ZH: 多头捍卫了他们的“打平止损位”，是强势的信号
22:05 - 22:08
EN: This is a Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 这是一个双底牛旗
22:08 - 22:12
EN: Bull trend, a pullback to a Double Bottom, bull flag, a decent buy bar.
ZH: 上涨趋势，回调形成双底牛旗，不错的买入信号K线
22:12 - 22:16
EN: The problem is all of the small sideways bars, all the small dojis.
ZH: 问题是，这些全都是横盘的小K线，小十字星
22:16 - 22:20
EN: This looks like it’s more of a Tight Trading Range than a bull flag
ZH: 这看起来更像是一个窄震荡区间而不是牛旗
22:20 - 22:24
EN: - but it is a reasonable bull flag, and the bulls have a reasonable chance
ZH: ——但是把它看作牛旗也是合理的，
22:24 - 22:28
EN: that the market will accelerate upward, and then trend resumption up,
ZH: 有一定的机会可以加速上涨，恢复上涨趋势
22:28 - 22:34
EN: maybe for a Measured Move based upon the height
ZH: 也许能够上涨到MM目标位——因为这里有测量型缺口
22:30 - 22:34
EN: of the gap between this high and this low.
ZH: 也许能够上涨到MM目标位——因为这里有测量型缺口
Slide 012
Time: 22:40
Bilingual Transcript
22:42 - 22:46
EN: The second test is, I think, a really good test.
ZH: 我认为第2次突破测试很不错
22:46 - 22:46
EN: Perfect test.
ZH: 完美的回测
22:46 - 22:49
EN: It missed the entry price.
ZH: 没有碰到入场价格
22:49 - 22:52
EN: Had you bought on a stop above this high,
ZH: 如果你在这个高点上方挂突破买单
22:52 - 22:54
EN: you would’ve been filled a little bit above that line.
ZH: 你的订单会在这条线上方1个tick成交
22:54 - 23:01
EN: This pullback hit the line – it would’ve triggered a breakeven stop
ZH: 第1次回调碰到了那条线，但第2次没有
22:58 - 23:01
EN: - and this pullback missed the entry price.
ZH: 第1次回调碰到了那条线，但第2次没有
23:01 - 23:04
EN: Had you bought on a stop above this bar,
ZH: 如果你在这个K线的上方买入
23:04 - 23:07
EN: you would’ve been filled just a little bit above this line, maybe on that close.
ZH: 你的成交价格就在这条线上方， 可能在这个阳线的收盘价附近
23:07 - 23:15
EN: And this high is above that close, so this is an absolutely perfect breakout test
ZH: 而这个回调的低点高于那个收盘价， 所以这是一次完美地突破测试
23:15 - 23:20
EN: - perfect in the sense that it got to within a tick or a pip of your entry price,
ZH: ——说它完美，因为它已经非常接近多头的入场价格
23:20 - 23:22
EN: but it did not hit your entry price.
ZH: 但刚好没有碰到
23:22 - 23:24
EN: So it did not hit your breakeven stop.
ZH: 所以它没有碰到你的打平止损单
23:24 - 23:26
EN: That’s a bullish thing.
ZH: 这对多头有利
23:33 - 23:35
EN: Yet the reversal up was weak.
ZH: 然而，反转上涨的力量很弱
23:35 - 23:39
EN: Instead of a strong bull trend, it looks like a bull leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 不是一个强势的上涨趋势， 看起来更像是震荡区间内的上涨波段
23:39 - 23:44
EN: A lot of traders will exit if it comes back down to their entry price again.
ZH: 如果再次回到入场价格，很多交易者会离场
23:45 - 23:48
EN: Here, it fell below this bar.
ZH: 这里，它跌破了这个K线的低点
23:48 - 23:51
EN: Most traders would get out either below this bar or below this bar.
ZH: 大部分交易者会在这个低点，或这个低点下方离场
23:52 - 23:56
EN: The bulls had a pretty good Double Bottom bull flag after a bull trend,
ZH: 上涨趋势，多头得到了一个相当不错的双底牛旗
23:56 - 23:59
EN: and they don’t want it to come back down a third time,
ZH: 他们不想看到第3次回调
23:59 - 24:05
EN: and they’ll get out on a stop and get filled here,
ZH: 所以他们会把止损单移动到这里，在这里成交，就在双底的低点下方
24:02 - 24:05
EN: right below the low of the Double Bottom.
ZH: 所以他们会把止损单移动到这里，在这里成交，就在双底的低点下方
24:10 - 24:13
EN: The bears see this as a Double Top.
ZH: 空头把它看作一个双顶
24:13 - 24:16
EN: We have a bull trend, a bear breakout, and a Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 上涨趋势，空头突破，窄震荡区间
24:16 - 24:20
EN: Whenever you have a Double Top in a Tight Trading Range like this
ZH: 每当你在这样的窄震荡区间内看到一个双顶，
24:20 - 24:23
EN: and the Tight Trading Range lasts 20 or more bars,
ZH: 并且窄震荡区间已经持续了至少20根K线
24:23 - 24:26
EN: especially if you get a decent sell signal bar,
ZH: 尤其是如果出现了不错的做空信号K
24:26 - 24:29
EN: the bears have a 40% chance of a swing down.
ZH: 空头有40%的概率可以制造下跌的波段
24:29 - 24:30
EN: And that’s what they got.
ZH: 就象是这样
24:34 - 24:38
EN: The market fell for about a Measured Move down
ZH: 一直下跌到MM目标位——把双顶的高度往下翻一倍
24:36 - 24:38
EN: based upon the height of this Double Top.
ZH: 一直下跌到MM目标位——把双顶的高度往下翻一倍
24:38 - 24:42
EN: Double Top, there’s the top of it, here’s the neckline.
ZH: 从双顶的高点，到颈线
24:42 - 24:46
EN: Neckline is actually right here, but this is obviously a key price,
ZH: 颈线实际上在这里，但这显然是一个关键价格
24:46 - 24:49
EN: so you could argue it’s the bottom of a Trading Range.
ZH: 所以可以把它看作是震荡区间的底部
24:50 - 24:53
EN: The bears will look for about a Measured Move down to take profits,
ZH: 空头会把它作为止盈的目标位
24:53 - 24:55
EN: and you can see they took profits here.
ZH: 你可以看到他们在这里买入止盈
24:55 - 24:57
EN: Other bears took profits here.
ZH: 其他空头在这里止盈（阳线上方1个tick）
25:03 - 25:06
EN: When you’re scalping, everything is important.
ZH: 当你在做剥头皮交易的时候，一切都很重要
Slide 013
Time: 25:05
Bilingual Transcript
25:06 - 25:08
EN: Every little mistake can cost you money,
ZH: 每个微小的错误都可能让你亏钱
25:08 - 25:11
EN: and the stop that you use is very important.
ZH: 其中止损是非常重要的
Slide 014
Time: 25:12
Bilingual Transcript
25:19 - 25:22
EN: Very few traders can make a living as scalpers,
ZH: 很少有交易者能靠剥头皮交易为生
25:22 - 25:25
EN: and the reason is you need to take the best trades,
ZH: 因为你需要做到最好
25:25 - 25:28
EN: and it’s usually better if you’re willing to trade fairly large.
ZH: 而且要能够用较大的仓位交易
25:28 - 25:30
EN: And most traders cannot do that.
ZH: 而大多数交易者无法做到这一点
25:31 - 25:35
EN: If you’re only going for a small profit per contract, per trade,
ZH: 如果你的每一笔交易，每一手合约，都只是追求很小的利润
25:35 - 25:41
EN: you need to have a large position
ZH: 但你又想赚到足够多的钱， 那么你就需要用大仓位（或者大杠杆）
25:38 - 25:41
EN: if you’re planning on making a living doing that.
ZH: 但你又想赚到足够多的钱， 那么你就需要用大仓位（或者大杠杆）
25:47 - 25:56
EN: One of the fundamental problems with scalping is on most of your trades,
ZH: 剥头皮交易的一个问题是：在大部分交易中， 你的止损会比目标更远
25:51 - 25:56
EN: your stop has to be further than your profit-taking limit order.
ZH: 剥头皮交易的一个问题是：在大部分交易中， 你的止损会比目标更远
25:56 - 25:58
EN: Your risk is usually bigger than your reward,
ZH: 你的风险经常会大于你的利润
25:58 - 26:02
EN: and that means you have to win 70%, 80%, or 90% of the time.
ZH: 所以你的胜率必须高达70%、80%或90%
26:02 - 26:05
EN: There are traders who can do that, but most cannot,
ZH: 少数交易员可以做到，但大部分都不行 （注：很多优秀的交易者也做不到）
26:05 - 26:11
EN: and you should assume that you are like most good traders and you cannot do it
ZH: 你应该假设，你就像那些优秀的交易者一样，也做不到这一点
26:11 - 26:13
EN: - or if you can do it, it’s not fun to do it,
ZH: ——或者，就算你有这个能力，但这样做并没有乐趣
26:13 - 26:19
EN: and therefore it’s not realistic to assume you’ll be able
ZH: 所以想要日复一日、年复一年地靠剥头皮为生， 不是一个很现实的目标
26:17 - 26:19
EN: to do that for a living, year after year.
ZH: 所以想要日复一日、年复一年地靠剥头皮为生， 不是一个很现实的目标
26:23 - 26:25
EN: Let’s say a trader sold here.
ZH: 假设一个交易者在这里卖出做空
26:25 - 26:29
EN: We have a breakout above this high.
ZH: 突破前期高点之后， 第1做空入场点，第2做空入场点
26:28 - 26:29
EN: First entry, second entry.
ZH: 突破前期高点之后， 第1做空入场点，第2做空入场点
26:29 - 26:32
EN: You can call it a Wedge – one, two, three, a Parabolic Wedge.
ZH: 你可以把它看作楔形——1，2，3，抛物线楔形顶
26:32 - 26:34
EN: A decent sell signal bar.
ZH: 不错的做空信号K线
26:37 - 26:42
EN: But then we get this.
ZH: 然而，接下来，出现了收在最高的阳线，小双底
26:38 - 26:42
EN: We got a reversal up, so now we have a Double Bottom and a bull bar.
ZH: 然而，接下来，出现了收在最高的阳线，小双底
26:42 - 26:46
EN: The trader sold below this bear bar, and he’s buying above this bull bar,
ZH: 他之前在那个阴线下方卖出做空， 然后在这个阳线上方买入离场
26:48 - 26:51
EN: and then maybe he’s selling here or selling there.
ZH: 然后，也许他在这里或这里，再次卖出做空
26:51 - 26:52
EN: He’s not making any money.
ZH: 他赚不到任何钱
26:52 - 26:56
EN: Stop entries in a Tight Trading Range – a losing proposition.
ZH: 在窄震荡区间内用突破单入场——这是一种亏损的策略
26:56 - 26:58
EN: You should never do that, even if you’re a scalper.
ZH: 就算是剥头皮，也不能这么做
26:58 - 27:04
EN: Once you start to see a series of 3, 4, 5 small bars in a Tight Trading Range
ZH: 一旦你开始看到连续3，4，5个小K线，
27:04 - 27:08
EN: with prominent tails, you should not be entering with stops.
ZH: 带有明显的上下影线，你就不应该用突破单入场
27:08 - 27:10
EN: And most traders should not trade whatsoever.
ZH: 大多数交易者根本不应该在这种行情中交易
27:13 - 27:15
EN: He sells here and maybe uses a tight stop
ZH: 他在这里卖出做空，用窄止损（放在这个高点上方）
27:15 - 27:18
EN: and gets out above here, so he’s losing money.
ZH: 然后很快就止损了，他在亏钱
27:18 - 27:20
EN: He sells here, gets out above here.
ZH: 他在这里卖出，在这里上方离场
27:20 - 27:23
EN: He buys here, he gets out maybe below here.
ZH: 他在这里买入，在这里下方离场
27:23 - 27:25
EN: He sells here, he gets out above here.
ZH: 他在这里卖出，在这里上方离场
27:25 - 27:28
EN: He sells here, he gets stopped out there.
ZH: 他在这里卖出，在那里被止损离场
27:31 - 27:33
EN: He buys here above a bull flag
ZH: 他在这个牛旗的上方买入
27:33 - 27:35
EN: and he gets stopped out either below there or below here.
ZH: 然后在这里或这里下方，被止损离场
27:35 - 27:37
EN: You can see the problem.
ZH: 可以看到问题的所在
27:37 - 27:42
EN: If you’re scalping for a small profit and you’re using a tight stop,
ZH: 如果你用很窄的止损，尝试去剥头皮赚小钱
27:42 - 27:44
EN: you can easily lose a lot of money.
ZH: 你就很容易亏很多钱
27:49 - 27:55
EN: Here we have a series of five scalps.
ZH: 这里连续5次剥头皮交易，都用突破单入场，全都是亏损的
27:52 - 27:55
EN: All of them were losers using stop entries.
ZH: 这里连续5次剥头皮交易，都用突破单入场，全都是亏损的
27:55 - 27:58
EN: As I said, whenever the market’s in a Tight Trading Range,
ZH: 正如之前所说，每当市场处于窄震荡区间时，
27:58 - 28:03
EN: you should not be trading, and anyone who is trading is trading with limit orders.
ZH: 你就不应该交易了； 即使交易，也应该用限价单（适合电脑程序）
28:03 - 28:07
EN: Using stop orders in a Tight Trading Range is a horrible strategy.
ZH: 在窄震荡区间使用突破单是一个糟糕的策略
28:15 - 28:18
EN: Most swing traders take occasional scalps,
ZH: 很多波段交易者也会偶尔剥头皮
28:18 - 28:21
EN: but you should really be focusing on swing trading.
ZH: 但你真正应该关注的，是波段交易（的方法和机会）
28:21 - 28:25
EN: That allows you to use a reasonable stop, and you only have to be right
ZH: 在波段交易中，你可以使用合理的止损，
28:25 - 28:29
EN: 40% of the time because you’re going for a swing, which means a reward
ZH: 只需要40%的胜率就足够了，因为你追求的是波段
28:29 - 28:34
EN: that is at least twice as big as your risk, and that offsets the low probability.
ZH: 也就是说利润至少是风险的两倍，弥补了胜率的不足
28:34 - 28:37
EN: It’s a profitable approach to trading.
ZH: 这是一种可以盈利的方法
28:44 - 28:49
EN: Really good scalpers can do something to increase their probability.
ZH: 真正优秀的剥头皮交易者能够通过操作来提高他们的胜率
28:49 - 28:53
EN: What they do is they can use a swing stop and scale in.
ZH: 他们可以使用波段交易的止损，并且加仓
28:54 - 28:58
EN: But as I said, most traders are not comfortable doing that.
ZH: 但是，正如之前所说，大多数交易者不适合这么做——毫无乐趣
28:57 - 28:58
EN: It’s not fun.
ZH: 但是，正如之前所说，大多数交易者不适合这么做——毫无乐趣
28:58 - 29:04
EN: You have to be enjoying your job, and therefore most traders
ZH: 你必须享受你的工作，因此大多数交易者不应该考虑剥头皮
29:02 - 29:04
EN: should not be thinking about scalping.
ZH: 你必须享受你的工作，因此大多数交易者不应该考虑剥头皮
29:04 - 29:10
EN: It’s stressful, and very few people have the personality
ZH: 剥头皮的压力很大，而且很少人的性格适合日复一日、 年复一年地高强度剥头皮
29:07 - 29:10
EN: that allows them to scalp every day, year after year.
ZH: 剥头皮的压力很大，而且很少人的性格适合日复一日、 年复一年地高强度剥头皮
29:11 - 29:15
EN: (I talk about scaling in in the videos on scaling in.)
ZH: （关于加仓的内容，在35A~C中详细讲解）
Slide 015
Time: 29:18
Bilingual Transcript
29:23 - 29:26
EN: Here we have a strong breakout above a bear channel.
ZH: 这里多头强势地突破了下降趋势线
29:26 - 29:29
EN: We have a series of 3 bull bars closing on their highs.
ZH: 有连续3根阳线收在最高
29:29 - 29:31
EN: It’s reasonable to buy the close.
ZH: 在它的收盘买入是合理的
29:31 - 29:33
EN: This is a Buy The Close bull trend.
ZH: 这是一个“买收盘”的上涨趋势
29:33 - 29:38
EN: And you know where the stop has to be – below the bottom of the bull breakout,
ZH: 你知道止损必须在哪里——在多头突破的起涨点下方
29:38 - 29:40
EN: either below this bar or below that bar.
ZH: 在这个K线，或那个K线下方
29:44 - 29:47
EN: A swing trader almost always has to use a wide stop.
ZH: 波段交易者经常会使用较宽的止损
29:47 - 29:53
EN: Sometimes he’ll have a great signal bar and he can use a stop
ZH: 有时信号K很好，他可以把止损放在信号K的外面 （注：反转初期，止损比较小）
29:51 - 29:57
EN: just beyond the signal bar, but more often than not,
ZH: 有时信号K很好，他可以把止损放在信号K的外面 （注：反转初期，止损比较小） 但更多时候，波段交易者使用的是较宽的止损
29:54 - 29:57
EN: a swing trader is using a relatively wide stop.
ZH: 但更多时候，波段交易者使用的是较宽的止损
30:00 - 30:03
EN: The trader can buy here, and then at the end of the session,
ZH: 交易者在这里买入，然后在收盘的时候，
30:03 - 30:05
EN: the market’s in a Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 市场进入了窄震荡区间
30:05 - 30:06
EN: You have a bear bar.
ZH: 出现了一根阴线，
30:06 - 30:08
EN: It’s reasonable to exit below that bear bar,
ZH: 在它的下方离场是合理的
30:08 - 30:11
EN: get filled here, and you made a swing profit.
ZH: 订单在这里成交，你赚到了波段的利润
Slide 016
Time: 30:15
Bilingual Transcript
30:16 - 30:20
EN: A lot of scalpers use wide stops, like a swing stop.
ZH: 许多剥头皮交易者会使用宽止损，比如波段交易的止损
30:23 - 30:25
EN: For example, we have a High 2 bull flag.
ZH: 例如，这是一个高2牛旗
30:25 - 30:30
EN: We have a bull trend, a High 1, and then we got a second entry here, a High 2.
ZH: 上涨趋势，回调，高1，然后这里是高2
30:31 - 30:34
EN: Ultimately it ended up as a Wedge – three pushes down.
ZH: 最终它变成了一个楔形——3次下跌
30:34 - 30:36
EN: One, pullback, two, pullback, three.
ZH: 1，反弹， 2，反弹，3
30:36 - 30:39
EN: This low is below that low.
ZH: 这个低点低于那个低点
30:39 - 30:44
EN: If you bought above this bar and you put your stop here, you lost money over here.
ZH: 如果你在这个K线上方买入，并且把止损放在这里， 你在这里会被止损、亏钱
30:44 - 30:49
EN: One of the problems with scalping, especially using a stop entry
ZH: 这就是剥头皮，尤其是在窄区间内用突破单入场， 会遇到的一个问题
30:47 - 30:49
EN: in a relatively Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 这就是剥头皮，尤其是在窄区间内用突破单入场， 会遇到的一个问题
30:52 - 30:56
EN: What some scalpers will do is use a wide stop,
ZH: 所以一些剥头皮交易者会使用宽止损
30:56 - 30:58
EN: either below the bottom of the bull breakout or,
ZH: 要么放在多头突破的起点下方，
30:58 - 31:01
EN: better, below the bottom of the entire bull leg.
ZH: 或者放在整个上涨波段的起点下方
31:01 - 31:05
EN: They’re not planning on having these stops be hit.
ZH: 他们并不打算让这些止损真的被打到
31:05 - 31:07
EN: They’ll get out before these stops are hit.
ZH: 他们会在情况不妙的时候提前离场
31:07 - 31:11
EN: But those are catastrophic stops that protect you
ZH: 这些是保护性的措施，
31:11 - 31:15
EN: against some kind of catastrophe, like if something happens in your house
ZH: 以防出现意外的灾难，比如家里出了事情，
31:15 - 31:18
EN: and you have to leave your computer for a period of time,
ZH: 导致你必须离开电脑一段时间
31:18 - 31:22
EN: or your electricity goes out, or your broker has problems
ZH: 或者断电了，或者券商和交易所出问题了
31:20 - 31:22
EN: or problems with the exchange.
ZH: 或者断电了，或者券商和交易所出问题了
31:22 - 31:32
EN: You want to make sure that there’s some stop that protects you
ZH: 所以你需要保护性的止损，不让你在意外事件， 小概率事件——比如黑天鹅中，发生大亏
31:26 - 31:32
EN: against some big move against you
ZH: 所以你需要保护性的止损，不让你在意外事件， 小概率事件——比如黑天鹅中，发生大亏
31:28 - 31:32
EN: - a low probability move, a Black Swan type of event.
ZH: 所以你需要保护性的止损，不让你在意外事件， 小概率事件——比如黑天鹅中，发生大亏
31:38 - 31:42
EN: Some of these scalpers relying on these wide stops are looking to buy more.
ZH: 一些依赖这些宽止损的剥头皮交易者会加仓
31:42 - 31:43
EN: Here, now we have a Wedge.
ZH: 现在，这里有一个楔形（牛旗）
31:43 - 31:48
EN: We have a Micro Double Bottom and three reversals up – one, two, three.
ZH: 也是一个小双底； 3次尝试向上反转——1，2，3
31:48 - 31:50
EN: Three legs down – one, two, three.
ZH: 3次向下的推动——1，2，3
31:50 - 31:53
EN: A decent buy bar here and a Micro Double Bottom.
ZH: 小双底，有不错的做多信号K线
31:53 - 31:55
EN: Reasonable to buy more here.
ZH: 在这里加仓买入是合理的
31:55 - 31:57
EN: We have a breakout and a pullback.
ZH: 突破，回调，
31:57 - 31:59
EN: Reasonable to buy more here.
ZH: 在这里加仓买入是合理的
31:59 - 32:02
EN: The scalper is not going to buy all of these buys,
ZH: 剥头皮交易者不会在每个地方都买入
32:02 - 32:06
EN: especially since these are right around that price,
ZH: 尤其是因为这些价格都很接近 （注：加仓的位置一定要拉开距离才有意义）
32:06 - 32:10
EN: but sometimes a scalper who buys here might buy more here or here.
ZH: 但有时在这里买入的剥头皮交易者， 可能会在这里或这里买入更多
32:13 - 32:16
EN: As the market went up, his Actual Risk,
ZH: 随着市场上涨，他的实际风险——
32:16 - 32:20
EN: if he bought here, was to just below the low of this bar.
ZH: 如果他在这里买入，实际风险就在这个K线的低点下方
32:24 - 32:29
EN: The scalper does not know that his Actual Risk is here when he takes the trade.
ZH: 在开仓的时候，交易者并不知道实际风险是多少 （注：下面的两节课会详细讲解实际风险）
32:29 - 32:31
EN: He knows it when the market starts to go his way.
ZH: 当市场上涨之后，他才知道这一点
32:32 - 32:39
EN: He had to risk a little bit more than from his entry price
ZH: 实际上，他只需要把止损放在这里，就可以不用被打到 （但是开仓的时候并不知道这一点）
32:36 - 32:39
EN: to below this low to not have been stopped out.
ZH: 实际上，他只需要把止损放在这里，就可以不用被打到 （但是开仓的时候并不知道这一点）
32:39 - 32:43
EN: Once the market goes his way, he then knows this is his Actual Risk,
ZH: 一旦市场再次向上突破，他就知道自己的实际风险是多少
32:44 - 32:46
EN: and this is one times his Actual Risk.
ZH: 而这里就是一倍实际风险的地方
32:48 - 32:54
EN: He’s scalping, so he’s going to go for a reward
ZH: 他追求的是剥头皮交易的最小利润
32:50 - 32:54
EN: that is at least as big as his minimum scalp,
ZH: 他追求的是剥头皮交易的最小利润
32:54 - 32:58
EN: and he also wants it to be at least as big as his Actual Risk.
ZH: 他也希望利润至少等于一倍实际风险
32:59 - 33:01
EN: This is a reasonable location to take profits.
ZH: 这是一个合理的止盈位置
33:03 - 33:07
EN: (I talk more about this in the videos on Actual Risk.)
ZH: 在实际风险的视频中我会详细地讲解这些内容
33:14 - 33:18
EN: We have a strong bull breakout, a Buy The Close type of rally.
ZH: 强势的多头突破，是“买收盘”的上涨趋势
Slide 017
Time: 33:15
Bilingual Transcript
33:18 - 33:21
EN: It’s reasonable to buy that close, or this close as well.
ZH: 在它的收盘买入时合理的，或者在它的收盘买入
33:22 - 33:25
EN: Again, stop choices below the bottom of the breakout.
ZH: 止损就放在突破的起涨点下方
33:25 - 33:28
EN: I usually put the stop below the bottom of the bull trend
ZH: 我通常会把止损放在整个上涨趋势的起点下方
33:28 - 33:31
EN: because the bottom of the breakout is a magnet,
ZH: 因为突破的起点往往是磁铁 （注：是回调的目标位）
33:31 - 33:36
EN: and the market often comes there or a little bit below, yet then resumes up.
ZH: 市场经常会略微跌破它，然后恢复上涨
33:36 - 33:39
EN: Sometimes it breaks below and falls for a Measured Move down,
ZH: 偶尔在跌破之后，会继续下跌到反向的MM目标位
33:39 - 33:43
EN: but most of the time if it breaks below, it either goes sideways or up.
ZH: 但大多数时候，如果跌破，之后要么横盘，要么恢复上涨
33:47 - 33:51
EN: Let’s say a trader bought here looking to scalp,
ZH: 假设一个交易者在这里买入，打算做剥头皮交易
33:51 - 33:53
EN: and this did not quite reach his target,
ZH: 但是涨幅没有达到他的目标
33:53 - 33:57
EN: and he’s disappointed by the tail here and the reversal here.
ZH: 然后他对这里的上影线和反转感到失望
33:58 - 34:02
EN: He can either exit below the low of this bar and get out around breakeven
ZH: 他可以在这个K线的低点下方离场——差不多是打平离场
34:02 - 34:06
EN: or he can use a swing stop, either below here or down here,
ZH: 或者，他可以依赖波段的止损—— 要么在这里，要么在这里
34:06 - 34:09
EN: and look to buy more if the market reverses up.
ZH: 然后在反转上涨的时候加仓买入更多
34:09 - 34:12
EN: He’ll assume it’s a bull flag and that we’ll get a second leg up.
ZH: 他假设这是一个牛旗，会有第2段上涨
34:18 - 34:23
EN: He might buy more with a limit order at a 50% pullback of this bull breakout
ZH: 他可以在多头突破50%回调的地方挂限价买单
34:23 - 34:27
EN: and he’d get filled there, or he might buy more above a bull bar
ZH: 限价买单会在那里成交； 或者他可以在一个阳线上方买入
34:27 - 34:29
EN: and get filled above this bull bar right here,
ZH: 订单会在这个地方成交
34:29 - 34:31
EN: or above this bar and get filled right here.
ZH: 或者在这根阳线上方加仓买入
34:36 - 34:40
EN: He might be so disappointed by the size of the selloff
ZH: 他也可能因为这段抛售而感到失望
34:40 - 34:43
EN: that he’s giving up on the intention of making much of a profit.
ZH: 所以就不考虑能赚多少钱了
34:43 - 34:47
EN: He’ll get out breakeven on his original entry
ZH: 于是在初始入场价格离场——初始仓位打平，
34:47 - 34:50
EN: and then with a tiny profit on his second entry.
ZH: 下方加仓的部分赚一点点钱
34:50 - 34:54
EN: In general, if a trader is scalping and looking to scale in,
ZH: 通常来说，如果考虑加仓的话
34:54 - 34:57
EN: his second entry should be at least the size of a scalp lower
ZH: 加仓的位置距离初始入场价格，至少要隔开一段距离
34:57 - 35:01
EN: than his first so that, when the market comes back to his first entry,
ZH: 这样，当市场回到初始入场价格的时候，
35:01 - 35:05
EN: he can make a scalper’s profit on his second entry.
ZH: 他加仓的部分才能够赚到一笔剥头皮的利润
Slide 018
Time: 35:08
Bilingual Transcript
35:10 - 35:14
EN: I talked about breakeven stops, putting a stop to around your entry price.
ZH: 这节课我讲了“打平止损法”， 也就是把止损移动到入场价格附近
35:14 - 35:19
EN: There’s never a good mathematical basis for using them; however,
ZH: 这种做法并没有数学上的基础，
35:19 - 35:21
EN: sometimes emotionally it makes sense.
ZH: 但是符合人类的情绪
35:21 - 35:24
EN: If you’re trying to get out because you think your trade is no longer valid
ZH: 如果交易者发现他们的前提不再成立，想要离场
35:24 - 35:27
EN: and the market is very close to your entry price,
ZH: 而市场刚好很接近入场价格
35:27 - 35:32
EN: a lot of traders will quickly move their stop
ZH: 很多人会快速地把止损移动到入场价格，这就是打平止损法
35:29 - 35:32
EN: to their entry price, a breakeven stop.
ZH: 很多人会快速地把止损移动到入场价格，这就是打平止损法
35:32 - 35:35
EN: If they make a little or lose a little on that stop,
ZH: 如果是很小的利润，或者很小的亏损，
35:35 - 35:37
EN: they still call it a breakeven stop.
ZH: 仍然看作一笔打平的交易
35:39 - 35:40
EN: I also talked about breakout tests.
ZH: 我还谈到了突破测试
35:40 - 35:43
EN: The market goes your way and comes back to your entry price.
ZH: 市场先朝着你预期的方向移动，然后回测你的入场价格
35:43 - 35:48
EN: Traders will usually allow the market to come back to their entry price once,
ZH: 交易者通常能够接受第1次回测入场价格
35:48 - 35:52
EN: but if the trend resumes in your direction, they do not want it to come back
ZH: 但是，如果趋势恢复之后， 交易者不希望价格第2次回测入场价格
35:52 - 35:58
EN: to your entry price a second time because if it does,
ZH: 如果真的第2次回测，他们就会怀疑趋势的前提是否仍然成立
35:56 - 35:58
EN: they’ll question the premise of a trend.
ZH: 如果真的第2次回测，他们就会怀疑趋势的前提是否仍然成立
36:00 - 36:04
EN: I then talked about stops for scalpers, and one of the difficulties for scalpers
ZH: 最后，我也讲了剥头皮交易者的止损
36:04 - 36:08
EN: is that the reward usually is less than the risk,
ZH: 剥头皮的难点在于，利润经常会小于风险
36:08 - 36:12
EN: and a lot of very good profitable scalpers use wider stops,
ZH: 许多非常优秀剥头皮交易者会使用较宽的止损
36:12 - 36:17
EN: like a swing stop, and they’re willing to scale in to increase their probability,
ZH: 比如用波段交易的止损，而且愿意通过加仓来提高胜率
36:17 - 36:20
EN: accepting that it increases their risk as well.
ZH: 同时也接受加仓带来的更大风险
36:20 - 36:24
EN: One of the big problems that beginners have when they scalp is they’re using stops
ZH: 新手在剥头皮时会遇到的一个问题就是， 他们用的止损太窄了
36:24 - 36:30
EN: that are too tight or they’re entering with stops
ZH: 而且他们总是在窄区间里面用突破单入场
36:27 - 36:30
EN: in Tight Trading Ranges, which is a horrible strategy.
ZH: 而且他们总是在窄区间里面用突破单入场
36:30 - 36:32
EN: They’re going to lose money.
ZH: 这样做是会亏钱的
36:36 - 36:38
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
36:38 - 36:40
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
36:40 - 36:44
EN: This is the seventh of seven videos on protective stops.
ZH: 保护性止损的7节课，到这里就全部讲完了