al-brooks-course
47C - Trading in Trading Ranges
Raw transcript and slide notes for 47C - Trading in Trading Ranges.
Overview
- Slides: 24
- Transcript segments: 592
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:06
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:06 - 00:10
EN: This is the third of four videos on trading in Trading Ranges.
ZH: 这是如何交易震荡区间的第3节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:13
Bilingual Transcript
00:14 - 00:19
EN: When the market’s in a Trading Range, it often has two-legged moves up and down.
ZH: 当市场处于震荡区间时，通常会有两段式的上涨或下跌
00:19 - 00:25
EN: Sometimes the second leg is especially strong and it looks like
ZH: 有时第2段特别强势，看起来像是要突破进入趋势
00:23 - 00:25
EN: the Trading Range is breaking out into a trend.
ZH: 有时第2段特别强势，看起来像是要突破进入趋势
00:25 - 00:29
EN: However, 80% of Trading Range breakout attempts fail
ZH: 然而，震荡区间里80%突破的尝试都会失败
00:29 - 00:34
EN: and those strong second legs trap traders into buying high or selling low.
ZH: 那些特别强势的第2段会诱使交易者买在高位，或卖在低位
00:34 - 00:36
EN: They are 2nd Leg Traps.
ZH: 我称之为第2段陷阱
00:36 - 00:39
EN: Traders should be expecting breakouts to fail.
ZH: 交易者应该预期突破会失败
00:39 - 00:41
EN: They should be fading breakouts,
ZH: 遇到突破要反做
00:41 - 00:45
EN: betting that the breakouts will fail, looking for reversals.
ZH: 押注突破失败、趋势会反转
00:46 - 00:49
EN: I’m going to talk about the ways to enter when the market’s reversing down
ZH: 接下来我会讲，当市场从区间顶部反转下跌
00:49 - 00:53
EN: near the top of the range and reversing up near the bottom of the range.
ZH: 或者从区间底部反转上涨时，应该如何入场
00:54 - 00:59
EN: Traders often have to use fairly wide stops, and if they’re able to scale in,
ZH: 交易者通常需要使用较宽的初始止损，
00:59 - 01:02
EN: that increases the probability that they’ll be able to make money.
ZH: 如果能够加仓的话，可以增加赚钱的胜率
01:05 - 01:07
EN: This is a 5-minute chart.
ZH: 这是一张5分钟K线图
01:07 - 01:10
EN: It has probably 300 bars on it.
ZH: 上面大概有300根K线
01:10 - 01:12
EN: 250, 300 bars.
ZH: 250~300根K线
Slide 002
Time: 01:10
Bilingual Transcript
01:12 - 01:15
EN: When you’re trading, you’re not going to be looking at this many bars,
ZH: 交易的时候没必要看那么多K线
01:15 - 01:20
EN: but I have it up like this to illustrate
ZH: 我这样展示的目的是为了说明： 市场已经在震荡区间中运行了很久
01:17 - 01:20
EN: that the market’s been in a Trading Range for a long time.
ZH: 我这样展示的目的是为了说明： 市场已经在震荡区间中运行了很久
01:20 - 01:23
EN: I want to be able to demonstrate several things about the Trading Range,
ZH: 我想讲解震荡区间的一些特征，
01:23 - 01:27
EN: and having this many bars on the screen allows me to do that.
ZH: 出于展示的目的，所以需要显示这么多K线
01:31 - 01:34
EN: Trading Ranges often have two-legged moves up and down,
ZH: 震荡区间里经常有两段式的上涨和下跌
01:34 - 01:36
EN: sometimes three-legged moves, Wedges,
ZH: 也会有3推楔形
01:36 - 01:41
EN: and often the patterns are nested within bigger patterns.
ZH: 这些结构通常也嵌套在更大的结构中
01:41 - 01:43
EN: For example, we have a Wedge rally here.
ZH: 比如，这里是楔形上涨
01:43 - 01:48
EN: Two legs down here – one, pullback, two – and then a rally here,
ZH: 这里有两段下跌——1，反弹，2； 然后上涨，它只是区间里的第2段上涨
01:47 - 01:48
EN: which is just a second leg up.
ZH: 这里有两段下跌——1，反弹，2； 然后上涨，它只是区间里的第2段上涨
01:48 - 01:51
EN: So Leg 1, pullback, Leg 2.
ZH: 也就是——1，回调，2
01:54 - 01:58
EN: You can see Leg 1 subdivided into either two or three legs,
ZH: 第1段上涨可以细分成两三段小的上涨
02:01 - 02:03
EN: and lots of two-legged moves.
ZH: 到处都是两段式的移动
02:03 - 02:04
EN: One, pullback, two.
ZH: 1，反弹，2
02:04 - 02:06
EN: One, pullback, two.
ZH: 1，反弹，2
02:06 - 02:07
EN: One, pullback, two.
ZH: 1，回调，2
02:08 - 02:10
EN: One, pullback, two.
ZH: 1，回调，2
02:10 - 02:13
EN: One (this whole thing being one), pullback, two.
ZH: 1（这里整个是第1段上涨），回调，2
02:14 - 02:18
EN: One, pullback, two, and two subdivided into one, pullback, two.
ZH: 1，反弹，2； 第2段可以细分成1，反弹，2
02:18 - 02:21
EN: That’s just normal Trading Range behavior.
ZH: 这样的价格行为在震荡区间中很常见
02:23 - 02:28
EN: As I said, often legs subdivide into three pieces instead of two.
ZH: 很多波段可以细分成三段，不止两段
02:30 - 02:33
EN: Lots of little Wedges, lots of ways to draw the Wedges.
ZH: 很多小楔形，有很多不同的选择
02:33 - 02:34
EN: One, two, three.
ZH: 1，2，3
02:34 - 02:36
EN: Wedge bull flag.
ZH: 楔形牛旗
02:36 - 02:38
EN: When a breakout below a Double Bottom reverses up,
ZH: 跌破双底，失败，很快反转上涨
02:38 - 02:42
EN: you have three legs down – one, two, and then three.
ZH: 那也是3段下跌——1，2，然后3
02:42 - 02:43
EN: That’s a variation of a Wedge.
ZH: 这是楔形的一个变体
02:43 - 02:46
EN: You can just see Wedges all over the place.
ZH: 到处都是3推楔形
02:46 - 02:48
EN: Three-legged moves, many ways to draw them.
ZH: 3段式的移动，有非常多
02:48 - 02:53
EN: Very common to have legs within Trading Ranges that are Wedges.
ZH: 震荡区间中，楔形的上涨或下跌很常见
02:57 - 03:02
EN: Traders should look to buy reversals up from Wedge Bottoms or from two legs down.
ZH: 在3推下跌，或两段下跌之后， 交易者应该在反转上涨时买入做多
03:05 - 03:08
EN: Couple legs down – one, pullback, two – near the bottom of a range.
ZH: 两段下跌——1，反弹，2； 跌到了区间底部附近
03:08 - 03:09
EN: Buy the reversal up.
ZH: 反转上涨时买入
03:10 - 03:13
EN: Leg 1, ABC pullback, and then 2.
ZH: 1，ABC反弹，2
03:14 - 03:15
EN: So two legs down.
ZH: 所以是两段下跌
03:15 - 03:16
EN: Also a Double Bottom.
ZH: 也有一个双低
03:16 - 03:18
EN: Buy a reversal up.
ZH: 反转上涨时买入
03:18 - 03:21
EN: Small Wedge bear flag, pullback.
ZH: 小的楔形牛旗，上涨后的回调
03:21 - 03:22
EN: Buy the reversal up.
ZH: 买入做多
03:22 - 03:23
EN: A Wedge bull flag.
ZH: 楔形牛旗
03:23 - 03:25
EN: Buy the reversal up.
ZH: 买入做多
03:25 - 03:32
EN: Reversed up, reversed up, reversed up, so three legs down,
ZH: 反弹，反弹，反弹，所以是3次向下的推动， 这里是第2做多入场点
03:29 - 03:32
EN: three legs up, and then a second entry buy here.
ZH: 反弹，反弹，反弹，所以是3次向下的推动， 这里是第2做多入场点
03:32 - 03:34
EN: Very Tight Channel Wedge.
ZH: 非常窄的楔形通道
03:35 - 03:36
EN: We have a Micro Wedge here.
ZH: 这里有一个很小的楔形
03:36 - 03:42
EN: Reversed up, reversed up with that tail, and then a third leg here.
ZH: 反弹，反弹——这个下影线，然后是第3推
03:45 - 03:50
EN: Traders should also look to sell reversals down
ZH: 看到两段上涨或楔形顶，交易者应该在反转下跌时做空
03:48 - 03:50
EN: from two legs up or from Wedge Tops.
ZH: 看到两段上涨或楔形顶，交易者应该在反转下跌时做空
03:53 - 03:55
EN: Three legs up, Wedge rally.
ZH: 3次向上的推动，楔形上涨
03:55 - 03:57
EN: Three legs – one, two, three.
ZH: 3推——1，2，3
03:57 - 03:59
EN: It’s also two legs – one, two.
ZH: 也是大的第2段——1，2
04:00 - 04:03
EN: A big three-legged pattern here – one, two, three
ZH: 这里有一个大的3推结构——1，2，3
04:03 - 04:06
EN: - and it’s also a big two-legged pattern here – one, two.
ZH: 此时也是一个大的两段式上涨——1，2
04:07 - 04:14
EN: Then two legs up – one, pullback, two – and then here we got a Double Top
ZH: 再往后——1，回调，2； 然后这里有一个双顶熊旗
04:14 - 04:17
EN: or a Double Top here and a break above the Double Top.
ZH: 或者，它们是双顶，然后突破双顶失败
04:18 - 04:22
EN: You can call it a Trading Range with a Double Top and then a small Wedge here.
ZH: 可以把它看作是这个小震荡区间中的双顶； 然后这里有一个小的3推楔形熊旗
Slide 003
Time: 04:25
Bilingual Transcript
04:28 - 04:32
EN: A 2nd Leg Trap that is a strong second leg that
ZH: 第2段陷阱，指的是第2段上涨或下跌非常强势，
04:32 - 04:35
EN: looks like it’s going to successfully break out into a trend,
ZH: 看起来像是要成功地突破、进入趋势
04:35 - 04:38
EN: but it reverses instead of leading to a Measured Move.
ZH: 但很快就反转了，而不是继续涨（或跌）到MM目标位
04:43 - 04:49
EN: Beginners see a strong leg like this and they assume
ZH: 新手看到这么强势的上涨，以为这是上涨趋势的开始， 但它直接反转下跌了
04:46 - 04:49
EN: it’s going to be the start of a trend, but then it simply reverses.
ZH: 新手看到这么强势的上涨，以为这是上涨趋势的开始， 但它直接反转下跌了
04:49 - 04:51
EN: It traps traders into buying high.
ZH: 追涨的人都被套牢了
04:51 - 04:52
EN: The same here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
04:52 - 04:55
EN: We have a first leg up and then a very strong second leg up.
ZH: 第1段上涨，然后是非常强势的第2段上涨
04:56 - 05:00
EN: Bulls are hoping this is the start of a bull trend, but look to the left.
ZH: 多头希望这是上涨趋势的开始，但是看左边
05:00 - 05:04
EN: We’re still possibly in a Trading Range or a Broad Bull Channel.
ZH: 可能还在震荡区间或宽上涨通道里
05:05 - 05:08
EN: 2nd Leg Traps are also common in Broad Channels up and down.
ZH: 第2段陷阱在宽通道中也很常见
05:08 - 05:11
EN: And then here, here’s a small 2nd Leg Trap
ZH: 然后这里，有一个小的第2段陷阱
05:11 - 05:13
EN: - one, pullback, two – trying to break out.
ZH: 1，回调，2，尝试向上突破
05:13 - 05:16
EN: Bulls are hoping for a trend up.
ZH: 多头希望可以反转上涨
05:16 - 05:18
EN: They’re looking at this as a bull trend and a pullback
ZH: 他们把这看作是上涨趋势中的回调
05:18 - 05:22
EN: from a Double Bottom, and it traps traders into buying high.
ZH: 这里有一个小双底； 但买入的多头都被套牢了
05:25 - 05:28
EN: Beginners see 3, 4 consecutive bull bars.
ZH: 新手看到连续3、4根阳线
05:28 - 05:32
EN: They start buying closes, betting that it’s the start of a bull trend.
ZH: 他们开始在阳线的收盘买入，押注这是上涨趋势的开始
05:36 - 05:40
EN: They may even buy the highest close, hoping for a big bull breakout.
ZH: 甚至可能买在最高的那个收盘价，希望会有大的突破
05:43 - 05:45
EN: Same up here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
05:45 - 05:53
EN: They’ll be buying closes, hoping that the Trading Range is going to convert
ZH: 新手在阳线收盘追涨，希望从区间进入上涨趋势， 然后就在高位被套牢了
05:49 - 05:53
EN: into a bull trend, and then they just get trapped into buying too high.
ZH: 新手在阳线收盘追涨，希望从区间进入上涨趋势， 然后就在高位被套牢了
05:55 - 05:58
EN: Again here, hoping for the breakout.
ZH: 还有这里，希望能向上突破
05:58 - 06:01
EN: Beginners buy up here instead of down here.
ZH: 新手在高位追涨，而不是逢低买入
06:01 - 06:02
EN: Same with up here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
06:02 - 06:05
EN: They’re buying up here; they should be buying down here.
ZH: 他们在这里追涨，但实际上应该在这里逢低买入
06:05 - 06:07
EN: Here, you don’t know what the bars to the left look like.
ZH: 这里，由于不知道更左边的K线是什么样的
06:07 - 06:10
EN: This might be part of a Trading Range.
ZH: 不知道左边是不是震荡区间
06:10 - 06:11
EN: It’s reasonable to buy closes.
ZH: 在阳线收盘买入是合理的
06:11 - 06:13
EN: Here, here.
ZH: 它和它的收盘
06:13 - 06:14
EN: Here I would not.
ZH: 它的收盘，我不会买入
06:14 - 06:15
EN: We have a Micro Double Top.
ZH: 已经有一个小双顶
06:15 - 06:17
EN: On this bar we went up and down,
ZH: 这根K线上涨、下跌
06:17 - 06:20
EN: and now we’re going up again, and this is a very big bar.
ZH: 再次上涨，而且这根阳线的体积很大
06:20 - 06:22
EN: So I personally would not buy that close.
ZH: 所以我个人不会在它的收盘买入
06:22 - 06:26
EN: Too much risk of a Double Top and a pullback.
ZH: 如果遇到双顶、深度回调，风险非常大
Slide 004
Time: 06:30
Bilingual Transcript
06:34 - 06:36
EN: The opposite’s true on selloffs.
ZH: 当价格下跌的时候
06:36 - 06:41
EN: Beginners see big bear bars, hoping that it’s the start of a bear trend,
ZH: 新手看到大阴线，希望这是下降趋势的开始
06:41 - 06:43
EN: and they end up selling bear closes.
ZH: 于是他们在阴线的收盘卖出做空
06:43 - 06:45
EN: But you look to the left, we’re still in a Trading Range.
ZH: 但是看左边，市场仍然处于震荡区间
06:45 - 06:51
EN: Selling below, even when there are big bear bars, is usually a bad thing to do.
ZH: 在低位卖出做空，即使有大阴线，通常也不是好的做法
06:51 - 06:58
EN: More likely the bear breakout will reverse than it is to break
ZH: 更有可能会反转上涨，而不是向下跌破、一直跌到MM目标位
06:55 - 06:58
EN: to the down side and fall for a Measured Move.
ZH: 更有可能会反转上涨，而不是向下跌破、一直跌到MM目标位
07:01 - 07:05
EN: The beginner sees 4 consecutive bear bars, big bear bar closing on its low,
ZH: 新手看到连续4根阴线，大阴线收在最低
07:05 - 07:09
EN: and he sells the close, hoping this is the start of a bear trend.
ZH: 他在收盘时卖出做空，希望这是下降趋势的开始
07:09 - 07:12
EN: Instead, an expert looks at it and says,
ZH: 然而，专业的交易员知道
07:12 - 07:17
EN: “Ah, a big bear bar at the bottom of a Trading Range.
ZH: “大阴线跌到震荡区间的底部， 应该买入做多，而不是做空”
07:15 - 07:17
EN: That’s a buy, not a sell.”
ZH: “大阴线跌到震荡区间的底部， 应该买入做多，而不是做空”
07:21 - 07:23
EN: The beginner sells breakouts below bars,
ZH: 而新手在K线下方入场做空
07:23 - 07:26
EN: hoping that it’s the start of a bear trend,
ZH: 希望这是下降趋势的开始
07:26 - 07:29
EN: not realizing that at the bottom of a Trading Range,
ZH: 没有意识到现在是震荡区间的底部
07:29 - 07:32
EN: 80% of breakouts will fail and reverse up.
ZH: 80%向下跌破的尝试会失败，并反转上涨
07:32 - 07:35
EN: So he’s doing the exact opposite of what he should be doing.
ZH: 他做的事情正好与他应该做的完全相反
07:40 - 07:43
EN: The beginner bought too high and he sold too low.
ZH: 新手买得太高，卖得太低
Slide 005
Time: 07:40
Bilingual Transcript
07:50 - 07:56
EN: A beginner buying up here is shocked
ZH: 新手在这里追涨，看到价格迅速反转下跌，感到震惊； 在这里也是一样
07:52 - 07:56
EN: by how quickly the market reversed down, and same here.
ZH: 新手在这里追涨，看到价格迅速反转下跌，感到震惊； 在这里也是一样
07:56 - 07:59
EN: He’s shocked by how quickly and relentlessly it reversed up.
ZH: 他没想到市场竟然这么快、这么强势地反转上涨
07:59 - 08:00
EN: Same with up here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
08:01 - 08:03
EN: But that’s how Trading Ranges behave.
ZH: 然而，这就是震荡区间的行为
08:04 - 08:07
EN: Incidentally, if you get a very strong breakout like that,
ZH: 顺便说一下，如果你看到非常强势的大阳线
08:07 - 08:11
EN: especially when there’s a possible Micro Double Top – this tail and this bar
ZH: 尤其可能是潜在的小双顶——这个上影线，和它的收盘
08:11 - 08:13
EN: - and then you get a bear bar closing on its low,
ZH: 然后有一根阴线收在最低
08:13 - 08:15
EN: it’s usually good to get out below that bear bar,
ZH: 通常最好在那根阴线下方离场
08:15 - 08:18
EN: just in case this is a 2nd Leg Trap.
ZH: 以防它是第2段陷阱
08:19 - 08:21
EN: If you get a selloff, you wait to buy.
ZH: 如果真的反转下跌了，那就等一等再买入
08:21 - 08:27
EN: If you simply go sideways, you can buy again
ZH: 如果只是横盘，你可以在阳线上方再次买入， 押注上涨趋势恢复
08:24 - 08:27
EN: above a bull bar and bet on a successful breakout.
ZH: 如果只是横盘，你可以在阳线上方再次买入， 押注上涨趋势恢复
08:32 - 08:35
EN: A lot of beginners, they’ll buy here, they’ll buy here,
ZH: 很多新手会在这里买入，在这里买入
08:35 - 08:41
EN: betting that it’s either a bull leg leading to a bull trend
ZH: 押注这要么是上涨趋势，要么是震荡区间内的上涨波段
08:39 - 08:46
EN: or a bull leg in a Trading Range and that we’ll fall near the bottom
ZH: 押注这要么是上涨趋势，要么是震荡区间内的上涨波段 就算深度回调到底部，也会再次涨回来； 这其实是正确的判断
08:43 - 08:46
EN: and resume up – and the beginner is right.
ZH: 就算深度回调到底部，也会再次涨回来； 这其实是正确的判断
08:46 - 08:50
EN: But invariably if he buys up here, he sells out down here,
ZH: 但实际上，新手总是在高位追涨，在底部止损，
08:50 - 08:52
EN: and he may even reverse to short.
ZH: 甚至在这里反手做空
08:52 - 08:57
EN: Then he gets trapped in and he buys back his short way up here.
ZH: 做空又被套牢，然后他在顶部止损
08:57 - 09:00
EN: He’s doing the exact opposite of what he should be doing.
ZH: 他做的事情正好与他应该做的完全相反
09:01 - 09:03
EN: When you can see the bars to the right,
ZH: 你现在已经看到了完整的行情
09:03 - 09:08
EN: it’s easy to say selling down here is dumb and buying up here is dumb.
ZH: 当然会觉得在这里做空是愚蠢的，在这里追涨是愚蠢的
09:08 - 09:11
EN: But in real time, it’s much harder to say that.
ZH: 但实盘交易的时候，往往当局者迷
09:11 - 09:18
EN: If you’re a beginner and you’re looking at the bars,
ZH: 新手看着盘面，往往非常关注最近几根K线， 觉得这是上涨趋势
09:15 - 09:18
EN: you tend to be looking at the most recent bars and you’re seeing bull trend,
ZH: 新手看着盘面，往往非常关注最近几根K线， 觉得这是上涨趋势
09:18 - 09:21
EN: and you’re ignoring the bars to the left which are telling you
ZH: 忽视了左边的背景——但背景告诉你，
09:21 - 09:25
EN: that it’s either in a Trading Range or in a Broad Bull Channel,
ZH: 这要么是震荡区间，要么是宽上涨通道
09:25 - 09:28
EN: and buying high in either case is a bad thing to do.
ZH: 不管是哪种情况，在顶部追涨都不是好的选择
09:29 - 09:29
EN: Same with here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
09:29 - 09:34
EN: Traders only look at the most recent 2 or 3 bars and they buy too high.
ZH: 新手只关注最近两三根K线，然后在高位追涨
09:34 - 09:37
EN: Here, especially – we were clearly in a Trading Range,
ZH: 尤其是这里——目前显然是震荡区间
09:37 - 09:39
EN: and beginners only look at this big bear bar
ZH: 但新手只关注这根大阴线
09:39 - 09:43
EN: and they see some other bear bars here, and they ignore all of this,
ZH: 他们只关注这里有一些阴线，但忽略了大的背景——
09:43 - 09:46
EN: that the market’s at the bottom of a Trading Range
ZH: 现在正处于震荡区间的底部
09:46 - 09:48
EN: and it’s a losing strategy to sell there.
ZH: 在这里做空是一个亏损的策略
Slide 006
Time: 09:50
Bilingual Transcript
09:56 - 09:58
EN: For the bulls buying up here,
ZH: 对于在这里买入的多头
09:58 - 10:03
EN: there’s a possible Expanding Triangle – one, two, and now three.
ZH: 这是一个潜在的扩张三角形——1，2，现在是3
10:03 - 10:06
EN: We have consecutive big bear bars closing on their lows.
ZH: 然后连续两根大阴线收在低位
10:06 - 10:11
EN: If a trader did buy here or here and if he did not get out below that bear bar,
ZH: 如果真的在它或者它的收盘追涨了， 而且没有及时的在第1根阴线的下方离场
10:11 - 10:14
EN: he really should get out on the close of the second bar.
ZH: 在第2根大阴线收盘的时候，多头真的应该离场
10:19 - 10:26
EN: At the bottom – Expanding Triangle Tops usually lead
ZH: 在底部——扩张三角形的下沿，往往会形成支撑， 所以我们看到了反转上涨
10:23 - 10:26
EN: to Expanding Triangle Bottoms, and that’s what we had here.
ZH: 在底部——扩张三角形的下沿，往往会形成支撑， 所以我们看到了反转上涨
10:26 - 10:30
EN: So rather than selling here, hoping for a successful breakout,
ZH: 与其在这里做空，押注价格向下跌破
10:30 - 10:33
EN: it makes more sense to look to buy a reversal up.
ZH: 不如等着在反转上涨时买入做多
10:38 - 10:39
EN: Another Expanding Triangle.
ZH: 又一个扩张三角形
10:40 - 10:43
EN: We went high, we went higher, and even higher still.
ZH: 高点抬高，继续抬高
10:43 - 10:47
EN: Rather than buying up here betting on a successful breakout,
ZH: 与其在这里追涨押注突破成功
10:47 - 10:51
EN: it makes more sense to wait to see if it reverses and then look to sell.
ZH: 不如观察是否会有反转，然后卖出做空
10:52 - 10:55
EN: Especially after you get 3 or 4 consecutive bear bars, traders,
ZH: 尤其是在你看到连续三四根阴线之后
10:55 - 10:57
EN: if they’re long, will get out.
ZH: 多头会离场
10:57 - 11:03
EN: If they’re flat, aggressive traders will start selling at the market,
ZH: 没有仓位的交易者，如果比较激进，会开始市价做空， 或者在阴线的收盘卖出做空
11:00 - 11:03
EN: selling at the close of the bear bars.
ZH: 没有仓位的交易者，如果比较激进，会开始市价做空， 或者在阴线的收盘卖出做空
11:08 - 11:13
EN: Trading Range.
ZH: 震荡区间的80%法则：80%突破的尝试会失败
11:08 - 11:13
EN: My 80% rule: 80% of breakout attempts will fail,
ZH: 震荡区间的80%法则：80%突破的尝试会失败
Slide 007
Time: 11:10
Bilingual Transcript
11:13 - 11:16
EN: and therefore it’s better to bet that the breakouts will fail.
ZH: 所以最好押注突破不会成功
11:16 - 11:23
EN: Therefore instead of buying at the top when the market’s breaking out at the top,
ZH: 与其在区间顶部追涨，不如等反转下跌时卖出做空
11:20 - 11:23
EN: it makes more sense to sell a reversal back down,
ZH: 与其在区间顶部追涨，不如等反转下跌时卖出做空
11:23 - 11:25
EN: and the opposite’s true at the bottom.
ZH: 在底部也是一样
11:25 - 11:30
EN: When you see a strong breakout attempt at the bottom, look to buy a reversal up.
ZH: 当你看到大阴线尝试向下跌破， 等待反转上涨的买入机会
Slide 008
Time: 11:31
Bilingual Transcript
11:38 - 11:40
EN: Leg 1, pullback, Leg 2.
ZH: 1，回调，2
11:41 - 11:43
EN: Leg 1, pullback, Leg 2.
ZH: 1，回调，2
11:44 - 11:51
EN: Expert traders know that an Exhaustion Gap is more likely
ZH: 专业的交易员知道，在震荡区间里面， 这更有可能是竭尽型缺口，而不是测量型缺口
11:48 - 11:51
EN: than a Measuring Gap when the market’s in a Trading Range,
ZH: 专业的交易员知道，在震荡区间里面， 这更有可能是竭尽型缺口，而不是测量型缺口
11:52 - 11:55
EN: and therefore they’re looking to sell a reversal down.
ZH: 所以他们会在反转下跌时卖出做空
11:58 - 12:02
EN: In fact, an aggressive trader might even sell this big close
ZH: 事实上，一个激进的空头甚至可能在这根大阳线的收盘卖出做空
12:02 - 12:07
EN: because it’s an exceptionally big bar and we have a tail on top of this bar.
ZH: 因为它的体积非常大，而左边有一个很长的上影线
12:08 - 12:10
EN: The bulls will see this as an opportunity to sell
ZH: 多头会把它看作是一个止盈的机会
12:11 - 12:13
EN: - we’re trying to break above the top of a Triangle,
ZH: 正在尝试加速突破扩张三角形
12:13 - 12:16
EN: and we have a Micro Double Top potentially
ZH: 有一个潜在的小双顶
12:16 - 12:18
EN: - and aggressive bears would sell that.
ZH: 同时，激进的空头会卖出做空
12:18 - 12:22
EN: Most bears would wait for a bear bar closing on its low and then sell below it,
ZH: 大多数空头会等一根收在最低的阴线，然后在它的下方卖出
12:22 - 12:25
EN: or wait for 2 or 3 bear bars and then start selling closes.
ZH: 或等待连续两三根阴线，然后在收盘卖出做空
12:32 - 12:35
EN: Sell below a strong bear bar closing on its low.
ZH: 阴线收在最低，在它下方卖出做空
12:35 - 12:38
EN: Sell the close of consecutive big bear bars,
ZH: 连续两根大阴线，在它的收盘卖出做空
12:38 - 12:40
EN: expecting at least a small second leg down.
ZH: 预期至少会有小的第2段下跌
12:44 - 12:49
EN: After 3 or 4 bars down, some traders will sell with limit orders
ZH: 下跌了三四根K线之后， 有的空头会在前一根K线的高点挂限价卖单
12:48 - 12:52
EN: at the high of the prior bar, betting on at least a small second leg down.
ZH: 下跌了三四根K线之后， 有的空头会在前一根K线的高点挂限价卖单 押注至少会有小的第2段下跌
12:52 - 12:54
EN: This is really not an easy short.
ZH: 在这里做空真的很不容易
12:54 - 12:59
EN: This rally is so strong, the odds are even if we pull back,
ZH: 上涨太强势了，就算有回调，大概率还是会有第2段上涨
12:57 - 12:59
EN: we’ll form a Higher Low.
ZH: 上涨太强势了，就算有回调，大概率还是会有第2段上涨
12:59 - 13:01
EN: When you see a strong rally like this,
ZH: 当你看到这么强势的上涨时
13:01 - 13:03
EN: the odds are it’s either the beginning of a bull trend
ZH: 大概率，这要么是上涨趋势的开始
13:03 - 13:07
EN: or it’s a bull leg in a Trading Range – in which case if it sells off
ZH: 要么是震荡区间中的上涨波段
13:07 - 13:11
EN: even to the bottom or below, it’ll come back up again.
ZH: 即使跌到起涨点，甚至略微跌破——比如这样，也会再次上涨
13:12 - 13:16
EN: However, I’m illustrating this as a 2nd Leg Trap.
ZH: 我用这个案例来讲解第2段陷阱
13:16 - 13:19
EN: As I said, you don’t know what the bars to the left look like.
ZH: 之前提到，我们看不到更左边的K线和背景
13:19 - 13:22
EN: We might be in a Trading Range already to the left,
ZH: 也许左边已经是震荡区间了
13:22 - 13:26
EN: and if we were, I would never be buying up here.
ZH: 如果是的话，我绝不可能在这里买入
13:26 - 13:27
EN: Same with up here.
ZH: 就像在这里
13:27 - 13:32
EN: We’re clearly in a Trading Range here and a Broad Bull Channel,
ZH: 显然是一个震荡区间或宽上涨通道
13:32 - 13:35
EN: and whenever I see a very strong second leg up,
ZH: 每当我看到这么强势的第2段上涨
13:35 - 13:40
EN: I assume it’s more likely an exhaustive move than the start of a bull trend.
ZH: 我会假设它是竭尽型的抢购高潮，而不是上涨趋势的开始
13:43 - 13:47
EN: Some traders will sell with a limit order at this high,
ZH: 一些交易者会在这个高点挂限价卖单做空
13:47 - 13:49
EN: especially since it’s a Micro Double Top.
ZH: 尤其是因为这里是潜在的小双顶
13:49 - 13:51
EN: We went up, down, up.
ZH: 上涨、下跌、上涨
13:55 - 13:59
EN: Others prefer to enter with stops – beginners should only be entering with stops
ZH: 一些交易者更喜欢用突破单入场——新手应该只用突破单入场
13:59 - 14:03
EN: - and they’ll either sell the low, 1 tick below the low of this bear bar,
ZH: 他们要么在这根阴线下方1个tick卖出做空
14:03 - 14:07
EN: or they’ll wait for 3 or 4 bear bars and then they’ll start to sell closes.
ZH: 要么等看到三四根阴线以后，在阴线的收盘卖出做空
14:14 - 14:18
EN: Big reversal down, reversing this bull bar.
ZH: 大幅反转下跌，完全跌掉了这根阳线的涨幅
14:18 - 14:20
EN: Probably we’ll have at least a little bit more down.
ZH: 至少还会再下跌一些
14:20 - 14:24
EN: So it’s reasonable to sell the close of that bar as well.
ZH: 所以在那根阴线的收盘卖出做空也是合理的
Slide 009
Time: 14:27
Bilingual Transcript
No transcript segment aligned to this slide.
Slide 010
Time: 14:30
Bilingual Transcript
14:36 - 14:41
EN: Whenever an expert sees two strong legs down
ZH: 每当专业交易员在震荡区间里看到两段下跌， 他就会准备买入做多
14:38 - 14:41
EN: in a Trading Range, he’s looking to buy.
ZH: 每当专业交易员在震荡区间里看到两段下跌， 他就会准备买入做多
14:41 - 14:48
EN: He’s expecting it to be an exhaustion move instead
ZH: 他预期这是竭尽型的抛售高潮，而不是继续跌到MM目标位
14:45 - 14:48
EN: of a Measuring Gap and leading to lower prices.
ZH: 他预期这是竭尽型的抛售高潮，而不是继续跌到MM目标位
14:48 - 14:50
EN: Reversal up is more likely.
ZH: 更有可能反转上涨
14:52 - 14:54
EN: Leg 1, pullback, Leg 2.
ZH: 1，反弹，2
14:54 - 14:55
EN: Big bear bar.
ZH: 大阴线
14:55 - 14:59
EN: If I’m trading this, I’m expecting this to be a bear trap,
ZH: 如果我在交易的话，我会认为这是空头陷阱
14:59 - 15:02
EN: trapping beginners into selling at the bottom of a Trading Range,
ZH: 诱使新手在震荡区间的底部做空
15:02 - 15:06
EN: and I’m going to be looking to buy for a reversal up.
ZH: 我会等着在反转上涨的时候买入做多
15:09 - 15:12
EN: You can buy with a limit order at that low.
ZH: 你可以在那个低点挂限价买单
15:15 - 15:22
EN: Or you can buy a reversal up, especially above a bull bar,
ZH: 或者在反转上涨时买入，尤其是在阳线上方买入， 或者在第2做多入场点买入
15:18 - 15:22
EN: like above that bull bar, or a second entry buy.
ZH: 或者在反转上涨时买入，尤其是在阳线上方买入， 或者在第2做多入场点买入
15:23 - 15:25
EN: We went down, we went up, we went down, we went up,
ZH: 下跌，上涨，下跌，上涨
15:25 - 15:31
EN: so buying above the high of that bear bar actually is a Micro Double Bottom buy.
ZH: 所以那根阴线上方1个tick实际上是小双底的第2做多入场点
15:34 - 15:38
EN: And then a strong reversal up – big down, big up.
ZH: 然后价格强势反转上涨——大跌，大涨
15:38 - 15:41
EN: Probably we’ll get at least a little bit more up,
ZH: 大概率还会再上涨一些 （注：仍然在震荡区间的底部）
15:41 - 15:43
EN: so you can buy the close of that big bull bar.
ZH: 所以也可以在这根大阳线的收盘买入
Slide 011
Time: 15:45
Bilingual Transcript
15:52 - 15:56
EN: Very often when you look at a chart and you see a big bull bar
ZH: 很多时候，当你在K线图上看到一根大阳线
15:56 - 16:04
EN: and you’re thinking, “boy, the market needs just one more of these big bull bars
ZH: 你心想：“兄弟，再来一根大阳线， 这样所有人都会追涨，押注价格继续上涨”
16:01 - 16:04
EN: and then everyone will conclude that the market’s going higher”
ZH: 你心想：“兄弟，再来一根大阳线， 这样所有人都会追涨，押注价格继续上涨”
16:04 - 16:09
EN: - whenever you see that, expert traders will sell the close,
ZH: 当你这样想的时候，专业交易员反而会在它的收盘卖出做空
16:09 - 16:11
EN: betting that you will not get that 1 more bull bar.
ZH: 押注多头无法再制造一根大阳线
16:12 - 16:17
EN: Here we have a bull breakout and follow-through, but it’s more likely a trap,
ZH: 这里有一根大阳线以及跟随，但更有可能是陷阱
16:17 - 16:22
EN: and therefore bears will sell strong bull closes
ZH: 所以每当市场上涨几根K线之后， 空头都会在强势阳线的收盘卖出做空
16:20 - 16:22
EN: after the market rallies several bars,
ZH: 所以每当市场上涨几根K线之后， 空头都会在强势阳线的收盘卖出做空
16:22 - 16:26
EN: betting that instead of the start of a bull trend, we’ll get a pullback.
ZH: 押注这不是上涨趋势的开始，而是会回调
16:34 - 16:36
EN: The opposite’s true with selloffs.
ZH: 下跌的时候也是一样
16:36 - 16:38
EN: Whenever you see a strong bear bar and you say,
ZH: 每当你看到一根大阴线，心想：
16:38 - 16:40
EN: “boy, I really hope we get 1 more bear bar,”
ZH: “兄弟，再来一根大阴线吧！”
16:40 - 16:44
EN: as soon as you’re hoping for that 1 more bear bar, it’s usually better to buy.
ZH: 在你迫切希望再有一根阴线的时候， 通常买入做多更好
16:44 - 16:47
EN: If you’re an experienced trader, you’ll simply buy the close.
ZH: 如果是经验丰富的交易员，可以直接在它的收盘买入 （注：新手等待做多信号，然后用突破买单入场）
16:47 - 16:48
EN: Big bear bar.
ZH: 大阴线
16:48 - 16:52
EN: Bears need a little bit more to convince traders they’ve taken control.
ZH: 空头需要继续努力，才能让其他交易者相信他们已经掌控了市场
16:52 - 16:54
EN: Well, bulls will buy that bear close.
ZH: 然而，多头会在它的收盘买入
16:54 - 16:57
EN: The same with here, all of these bear bars.
ZH: 这里也是一样，所有这些阴线都一样
16:57 - 16:59
EN: You can see how the follow-through is bad.
ZH: 可以看到，后面的跟随都很糟糕
16:59 - 17:01
EN: Big bear bar followed by a bull bar.
ZH: 大阴线的后面是阳线
17:01 - 17:02
EN: Bear bar, bull bar.
ZH: 阴线，阳线
17:02 - 17:04
EN: Bear bar, bad follow-through.
ZH: 阴线，跟随不好
17:04 - 17:07
EN: That tells you that whenever there’s a big bear bar,
ZH: 这说明，每当看到大阴线收盘
17:07 - 17:10
EN: the bulls are overwhelming the bears and creating reversals.
ZH: 多头就以压倒性的力量买入并制造反转
17:10 - 17:13
EN: The opposite’s true with the big bull bars.
ZH: 大阳线后面的跟随也很差
17:13 - 17:16
EN: Look at the follow-through after every breakout attempt.
ZH: 看看每次突破尝试之后的跟随
17:16 - 17:19
EN: It’s terrible, and that tells you that the bears
ZH: 跟随非常糟糕，说明每当看到区间顶部的大阳线，
17:19 - 17:23
EN: are overwhelming the bulls at the top of each strong bull leg.
ZH: 空头就用压倒性的力量卖出做空
17:28 - 17:32
EN: I want to talk a little bit about how to enter on reversals.
ZH: 接下来，我想讲一讲如何在反转时入场
Slide 012
Time: 17:30
Bilingual Transcript
No transcript segment aligned to this slide.
Slide 013
Time: 17:33
Bilingual Transcript
17:41 - 17:44
EN: When you’re in a Trading Range, a lot of times the first reversal
ZH: 当市场处于震荡区间时，很多时候，
17:44 - 17:48
EN: from the bottom or the first reversal down from the top is not the final reversal.
ZH: 第1次从底部反转上涨，或第1次从顶部反转下跌，不会直接成功
17:48 - 17:52
EN: For example, we reversed up, we reversed up a second time here.
ZH: 例如，尝试反转上涨，这里第2次反转上涨
17:52 - 17:55
EN: We reversed up, sold off, reversed up a second time here.
ZH: 反转上涨，下跌，这里第2次反转上涨
17:55 - 17:58
EN: Most traders, if you see a strong leg down,
ZH: 对大部分交易者而言，如果你看到了强势的下跌波段
17:58 - 18:01
EN: it’s usually better not to take the first reversal up.
ZH: 通常最好不要在第1次反转上涨时入场做多
18:01 - 18:03
EN: It’s better to wait for a second reversal down.
ZH: 最好等待第2做多入场点
18:03 - 18:05
EN: The same is true at the top.
ZH: 在顶部做空也是一样
18:05 - 18:07
EN: Instead of taking the first reversal down,
ZH: 不要在第1次反转下跌时做空
18:07 - 18:11
EN: it’s better to wait for a Micro Double Top and then take a second reversal down.
ZH: 最好至少等待一个小双顶，然后再第2次反转下跌时入场
18:11 - 18:13
EN: The probability is higher.
ZH: 这样胜率更高一些
18:20 - 18:21
EN: Trying to reverse up.
ZH: 尝试反转上涨
18:21 - 18:23
EN: Second reversal up here.
ZH: 这里是第2次尝试
18:23 - 18:25
EN: Higher probability, leading to a leg up.
ZH: 有更高的胜率能赚到上涨波段
18:26 - 18:30
EN: When you’re trading within a Trading Range, it’s better to be using wide stops,
ZH: 在震荡区间里交易的时候，最好使用宽止损
18:30 - 18:34
EN: like maybe below here, planning to scale in lower.
ZH: 比如放在这里，并计划在更低的价格加仓
18:35 - 18:42
EN: But you don’t want to take a second entry unless
ZH: 前提是，加仓的位置至少距离初始入场价格两三个点 （注：剥头皮最小目标的两三倍）
18:37 - 18:42
EN: it’s at least two or three times the size of a scalp below the first entry.
ZH: 前提是，加仓的位置至少距离初始入场价格两三个点 （注：剥头皮最小目标的两三倍）
18:42 - 18:45
EN: So if you’re trading the Emini and the minimum scalp is 1 point,
ZH: 在ES中，剥头皮的最小目标是1个点
18:45 - 18:52
EN: you do not want to take a second entry buy
ZH: 如果距离初始入场价格不到两三个点，那就先不要加仓
18:48 - 18:52
EN: unless the second entry is 2 or 3 points below the first.
ZH: 如果距离初始入场价格不到两三个点，那就先不要加仓
18:52 - 18:55
EN: Therefore, if you take this buy, I would not take that buy.
ZH: 所以，如果在这里买入了，在这里还不能加仓
18:55 - 18:59
EN: But if you did not take this buy, this is a reasonable second entry buy.
ZH: 如果这里没有买入，那么在这个第2做多入场点买入是合理的
19:06 - 19:07
EN: The same is true at the top.
ZH: 在区间顶部也是一样
19:07 - 19:11
EN: If you’re selling a reasonable top – here, you can call it a Wedge,
ZH: 如果有一个合理的做空机会——这里，你可以说它是楔形顶
19:11 - 19:15
EN: one, two, there or one, two, three, a failed breakout above a high
ZH: 1，2，3；或者1，2，3；而且可能是突破前期高点失败
19:15 - 19:19
EN: - if the leg up is strong – here, 5 consecutive bull bars
ZH: 如果左边的上涨波段非常强——比如这里，连续5根阳线
19:19 - 19:22
EN: - it’s often better to wait for a second entry sell.
ZH: 最好等第2做空入场点
19:22 - 19:23
EN: Here’s a first entry.
ZH: 这是第1入场点
19:23 - 19:24
EN: That’s not very good.
ZH: 不是特别好
19:24 - 19:28
EN: This is a better second entry sell, a small Double Top Lower High.
ZH: 这里的第2入场点更好，有一个小双顶，高点降低
19:28 - 19:29
EN: Did not get very far.
ZH: 没有下跌很多
19:29 - 19:31
EN: We have a new high here,
ZH: 上涨创新高
19:31 - 19:35
EN: and that would be a second entry reversal with a breakout above this high.
ZH: 第2次突破前期高点，失败后的反转下跌做空入场点
Slide 014
Time: 19:40
Bilingual Transcript
19:43 - 19:48
EN: When the market’s in a Trading Range, traders are going
ZH: 当市场在震荡区间时， 交易者会在下半部分做多
19:46 - 19:48
EN: to look to buy reversals up in the lower half
ZH: 当市场在震荡区间时， 交易者会在下半部分做多
19:48 - 19:50
EN: and sell reversals down in the upper half.
ZH: 在上半部分做空
19:50 - 19:53
EN: This is the sell zone, and this is the buy zone,
ZH: 这里是卖出区域，这里是买入区域
19:55 - 19:58
EN: and beginners should only be looking to enter with stops
ZH: 新手应该只考虑用突破单入场
19:58 - 20:01
EN: - buying with a stop on a reversal up from the bottom,
ZH: 从底部反转上涨时，用突破单买入
20:01 - 20:04
EN: selling with a stop on a reversal down from the top.
ZH: 从顶部反转下跌时，用突破单卖出
20:08 - 20:10
EN: A stop entry, the market’s going your way,
ZH: 用突破单入场的时候，是顺着市场的方向的
20:10 - 20:13
EN: and that has a slightly higher probability of making a profit.
ZH: 所以有略微更高的概率可以赚钱
20:17 - 20:20
EN: We’re in the top half of a developing range.
ZH: 现在处于潜在震荡区间的上半部分
20:20 - 20:23
EN: Traders can sell with a stop below the low of that bar.
ZH: 交易者可以在那根K线的低点下方挂突破卖单做空
20:23 - 20:26
EN: Better if the bar has a bear body, which this does,
ZH: 最好是在阴线下方——它就是一根阴线
20:26 - 20:28
EN: and it’s better if it’s a second leg up
ZH: 如果是第2段上涨的话会更好
20:28 - 20:32
EN: - one, pullback, two and one, pullback, two.
ZH: ——1，回调，2； 同时也是1，回调，2
20:36 - 20:38
EN: At this point the Trading Range is bigger.
ZH: 到了这个时候，震荡区间扩大了
20:38 - 20:40
EN: This pullback is into the lower half.
ZH: 这里回调到了区间的下半部分
20:40 - 20:44
EN: Traders will look to buy a reversal up, especially a second entry.
ZH: 交易者会在反转上涨时买入，尤其是第2做多入场点
20:44 - 20:46
EN: The first entry’s above this little bull doji.
ZH: 第1入场点在这个小十字星的上方
20:46 - 20:50
EN: This is a second entry and it has a higher probability of being profitable.
ZH: 这里是第2入场点，赚钱的概率更高
Slide 015
Time: 20:55
Bilingual Transcript
20:58 - 21:06
EN: When a first leg down is strong, the probability is not all that good
ZH: 如果第1段下跌很强势，第1做多入场点的胜率不会很高
21:02 - 21:06
EN: that buying the first reversal up will be profitable.
ZH: 如果第1段下跌很强势，第1做多入场点的胜率不会很高
21:06 - 21:08
EN: It’s higher probability to wait for a second entry buy.
ZH: 最好等第2入场点
21:12 - 21:13
EN: Here, a Micro Double Bottom.
ZH: 这里是一个小双底
21:13 - 21:17
EN: It went up and then down on that bear bar, and now it’s going up again.
ZH: 上涨，然后这根阴线下跌；现在再次上涨
21:17 - 21:21
EN: The high of that bear bar is the neckline of this small Double Bottom.
ZH: 那根阴线的高点就是这个小双底的颈线
21:22 - 21:25
EN: Traders will buy on a stop above the high of that bear bar.
ZH: 一些多头会在那根阴线的高点上方挂突破买单做多
21:28 - 21:33
EN: Other traders will buy above this bull bar closing on its high, a bull inside bar.
ZH: 这根阳线收在最高，而且是孕线，一些多头会在它的上方买入
21:33 - 21:35
EN: They’ll buy on a stop above its high and get filled right there.
ZH: 他们会在它的上方挂突破买单，订单会在那里成交
21:41 - 21:49
EN: When you have a very strong rally, it’s usually better to wait
ZH: 当你看到非常强势的上涨时，通常最好等第2做空入场点， 比如等一个小双顶，或者等一根反转大阴线
21:45 - 21:49
EN: for a second entry sell, like a Micro Double Top,
ZH: 当你看到非常强势的上涨时，通常最好等第2做空入场点， 比如等一个小双顶，或者等一根反转大阴线
21:48 - 21:49
EN: or for a strong bear breakout.
ZH: 当你看到非常强势的上涨时，通常最好等第2做空入场点， 比如等一个小双顶，或者等一根反转大阴线
21:54 - 22:00
EN: The market went up and down on this bar and then it went up
ZH: 这根K线上涨、下跌，那根小阳线再次上涨、下跌
21:57 - 22:00
EN: on that little bull bar and then down again.
ZH: 这根K线上涨、下跌，那根小阳线再次上涨、下跌
22:01 - 22:05
EN: The low of this bull bar is the neckline of this small Double Top.
ZH: 这根阳线的最低点就是这个小双顶的颈线
22:05 - 22:08
EN: We went up and down, we went up, and we’re going down again.
ZH: 上涨，然后下跌；上涨，再次下跌
22:08 - 22:12
EN: So you can sell with a stop below the neckline of that Micro Double Top
ZH: 你可以在这个小双顶的颈线下方挂突破卖单
22:12 - 22:16
EN: and you get filled right here as this bear bar falls below that bull doji.
ZH: 在这根阴线跌破颈线的时候，订单会在那里成交
22:21 - 22:23
EN: We have a Micro Double Top here
ZH: 这里有一个小双顶
22:23 - 22:27
EN: - up and then pause and then up again – but a very Tight Bull Channel.
ZH: 上涨、暂停，再次上涨； 然而这是一个很窄的上涨通道
22:27 - 22:31
EN: Some traders will wait until there are 3 or 4 consecutive bear bars,
ZH: 一些空头会等待，直到看到连续三四根阴线
22:31 - 22:35
EN: especially if 2 or 3 of them close on their lows, and then when they see that,
ZH: 尤其如果其中有两三根阴线是收在最低的话，
22:35 - 22:39
EN: they’ll simply hit “Sell the Market”
ZH: 在第3或第4根阴线的收盘，他们会直接点击“市价卖出”
22:37 - 22:39
EN: when they see the close of that third or fourth bear bar.
ZH: 在第3或第4根阴线的收盘，他们会直接点击“市价卖出”
22:44 - 22:47
EN: Big reversal down and a follow-through bar.
ZH: 大阴线反转下跌，而且有跟随的阴线
22:48 - 22:51
EN: Most bulls are not going to buy the first reversal up.
ZH: 大部分多头不会在第1次上涨时买入
22:51 - 22:52
EN: They might buy the second reversal up,
ZH: 如果出现第2做多入场点，多头也许会入场
22:52 - 22:56
EN: but because most bulls won’t buy the first reversal up,
ZH: 但他们不会在第1次反转上涨时买入
22:56 - 23:00
EN: selling the close for a trade down is a reasonable thing to do.
ZH: 所以在它的收盘卖出做空是合理的
Slide 016
Time: 23:04
Bilingual Transcript
23:05 - 23:09
EN: Trading Ranges, you’re never really certain if a reversal will work.
ZH: 在震荡区间，你永远无法确定是否能成功反转
23:09 - 23:12
EN: The probabilities are not as high as you would like them to be.
ZH: 概率并没有你希望的那么高
23:12 - 23:18
EN: Because of that, experienced traders will use wide stops
ZH: 因此，经验丰富的交易者可以使用宽止损， 并且通过加仓来增加他们的胜率
23:15 - 23:18
EN: and scale in to increase their probability.
ZH: 因此，经验丰富的交易者可以使用宽止损， 并且通过加仓来增加他们的胜率
Slide 017
Time: 23:19
Bilingual Transcript
23:25 - 23:28
EN: If you buy here, reasonable to put a stop down here.
ZH: 如果在这里买入，把止损放在它的下方是合理的
23:29 - 23:32
EN: We got a reversal up from a Lower Low.
ZH: 价格从更低的低点反转上涨
23:32 - 23:33
EN: Two legs down, one, pullback, two.
ZH: 两段下跌——1，反弹，2
23:33 - 23:36
EN: If you buy here, reasonable to put a stop here.
ZH: 如果你在这里买入，把止损放在它的下方是合理的
23:40 - 23:42
EN: Opposite’s true up here.
ZH: 顶部做空也是一样
23:42 - 23:44
EN: We have a Micro Double Top.
ZH: 有一个小双顶
23:44 - 23:47
EN: Reasonable to take that sell and put a stop just above.
ZH: 在它的下方做空，然后把止损放在上面是合理的
23:48 - 23:51
EN: Here we have 4 bear bars, 3 or 4 bear bars.
ZH: 这里有连续4根阴线
23:51 - 23:54
EN: If you sell there, reasonable to put a stop above the top of that bear leg.
ZH: 如果在它的收盘卖出做空，把止损放在起跌点上方是合理的
24:00 - 24:06
EN: I’m going to talk in later slides
ZH: 在后面的课件，我会讲解经验丰富的交易员可以使用的入场方法
24:03 - 24:06
EN: about how experienced traders trade these things.
ZH: 在后面的课件，我会讲解经验丰富的交易员可以使用的入场方法
24:06 - 24:10
EN: A lot of times they’ll trade small, use wide stops, and scale in.
ZH: 很多时候，他们会用很小的初始仓位， 然后设置宽止损，并计划加仓
Slide 018
Time: 24:15
Bilingual Transcript
24:17 - 24:21
EN: Beginners should never be scaling in and they should never be using wide stops.
ZH: 新手绝对不应该加仓，也不应该使用宽止损
24:22 - 24:25
EN: If they get stopped out, they can enter again on the second signal.
ZH: （使用窄止损就可以了）如果止损被打掉， 可以在第2个反转信号再次入场
24:25 - 24:29
EN: If they get stopped out a second time, do not take the third signal.
ZH: 如果再次被止损，那就不要继续交易了
24:30 - 24:32
EN: Just take a break for a little while and see what’s going on.
ZH: 先休息一下，看看情况再说
24:37 - 24:40
EN: If your second entry fails, then you’re probably doing the wrong thing.
ZH: 如果连续两次入场都失败，那么你很有可能搞错了
24:40 - 24:46
EN: You’re probably thinking the market’s in a Trading Range
ZH: 比如，也许你觉得市场处于震荡区间，但实际上是趋势
24:43 - 24:46
EN: and, in fact, the market may be in a trend.
ZH: 比如，也许你觉得市场处于震荡区间，但实际上是趋势
24:50 - 24:51
EN: Double Top bear flag.
ZH: 双顶熊旗
24:51 - 24:54
EN: Reasonable to sell with a stop below that little bear bar.
ZH: 在那个小阴线下方挂突破卖单做空是合理的
24:54 - 24:57
EN: You get filled here, looking for a small trade down.
ZH: 订单在这里成交，预期价格会继续下跌
24:59 - 25:03
EN: Can you put your stop here, or should you put your stop here?
ZH: 可以把止损放在这里吗？还是应该放在这里？
25:03 - 25:05
EN: This is a major high.
ZH: 它是重要高点
25:05 - 25:07
EN: This is a minor high.
ZH: 它是次要的
25:07 - 25:08
EN: This is a minor high.
ZH: 它也是次要的
25:08 - 25:09
EN: Both are okay.
ZH: 两种选择都可以
25:10 - 25:13
EN: If a trader took this sell for this Double Top bear flag
ZH: 如果一个交易者在这个双顶熊旗卖出做空
25:14 - 25:19
EN: and he held for a swing down and he got stopped out by using a tight stop,
ZH: 预期会有下跌波段，但是他使用了窄止损，在这里被打掉了
25:19 - 25:23
EN: he could sell again below a bear bar on the failed breakout.
ZH: 他可以在这根阴线下方再次卖出做空
25:23 - 25:26
EN: If a trader used a wide stop, he’s not going to get stopped out.
ZH: 使用宽止损的空头，这里止损不会被打到
25:26 - 25:28
EN: He would capture this swing down.
ZH: 他可以赚到这个下跌波段
25:28 - 25:29
EN: He would not get out here.
ZH: 他不会在这里离场
25:31 - 25:38
EN: Tight stop, wide stop, it does not matter which you choose.
ZH: 窄止损，宽止损，只要两者都是合理的， 选择任何一个都没问题
25:35 - 25:38
EN: Both are reasonable, and as long as you use reasonable stops,
ZH: 窄止损，宽止损，只要两者都是合理的， 选择任何一个都没问题
25:39 - 25:42
EN: if you take the same trade 10 times with a tight stop,
ZH: 如果用窄止损和宽止损做10笔同样的交易，
25:42 - 25:47
EN: you’ll have the same amount of profit as another trader
ZH: 最后总的利润是差不多的
25:45 - 25:47
EN: who took the same trade 10 times with a wide stop.
ZH: 最后总的利润是差不多的
25:47 - 25:53
EN: The wide stop trader loses less often – in other words,
ZH: 宽止损更少被打到，也就是说胜率会更高
25:51 - 25:53
EN: he has a higher probability of making money
ZH: 宽止损更少被打到，也就是说胜率会更高
25:53 - 25:56
EN: - but when he does lose, his losses are bigger.
ZH: 但每次止损被打到的时候会亏更多
26:04 - 26:07
EN: If you get stopped out using a tight stop
ZH: 如果你设置了窄止损，被打掉，
26:07 - 26:10
EN: and the market reverses down again, you can always sell again.
ZH: 但市场再次反转下跌，你总是可以再次入场
26:10 - 26:12
EN: Another Double Top here or here.
ZH: 这里或者里，又有一个双顶
26:12 - 26:14
EN: If you want, you can call it a Triangle.
ZH: 你也可以说它是三角形
26:14 - 26:17
EN: Three legs up – one, pullback, two, pullback, three.
ZH: 三段上涨——1，回调，2，回调，3
26:17 - 26:21
EN: Does not look like a Triangle, but you can call it a Triangle if you want.
ZH: 看起来不像三角形，但如果你愿意的话，可以把它看作是三角形
26:21 - 26:23
EN: A horizontal Trading Range with three legs up.
ZH: 横向的震荡区间，其中有3次向上的推动
Slide 019
Time: 26:26
Bilingual Transcript
26:30 - 26:33
EN: Let’s say you’re making money selling above highs.
ZH: 假设之前你通过在前期高点挂单做空赚钱了
26:33 - 26:35
EN: You sell at this high, you made money.
ZH: 在这个高点挂单做空，赚到钱了
26:35 - 26:36
EN: It went above, came down.
ZH: 略微上涨之后下跌
26:36 - 26:39
EN: You sell with a limit order at this high, you made a scalp.
ZH: 你在这个高点挂限价卖单，可以赚一笔剥头皮
26:39 - 26:43
EN: Let’s say you sell with a limit order at this high.
ZH: 假设你继续在这个高点挂限价卖单
26:43 - 26:45
EN: Instead of turning down, it went up.
ZH: 价格没有下跌，而是向上突破
26:47 - 26:54
EN: This is never a problem for beginners because beginners
ZH: 新手不需要考虑这个问题，因为新手不应该使用限价单入场， 更加不应该加仓
26:51 - 26:54
EN: should not be selling with limit orders and scaling in.
ZH: 新手不需要考虑这个问题，因为新手不应该使用限价单入场， 更加不应该加仓
26:54 - 26:57
EN: However, if you’re an experienced trader, you know how to handle it.
ZH: 然而，如果你是经验丰富的交易者，你知道该如何应对
26:58 - 26:59
EN: You sell at that high.
ZH: 你在那个高点挂单做空
26:59 - 27:02
EN: Going to use some kind of a Measured Move up and a wide stop,
ZH: 可以把止损放在某个MM目标位的外面
27:02 - 27:07
EN: and you’ll look to sell more higher, expecting the market to come back
ZH: 然后你计划在更高的价格加仓做空， 预期价格跌回到突破点的下方
27:06 - 27:12
EN: below the breakout point, and that will allow you to get out breakeven
ZH: 然后你计划在更高的价格加仓做空， 预期价格跌回到突破点的下方 这样你的初始仓位就可以打平离场， 上方加仓的部分赚钱
27:09 - 27:12
EN: on your first buy and with a profit with your higher entry.
ZH: 这样你的初始仓位就可以打平离场， 上方加仓的部分赚钱
27:21 - 27:23
EN: How high up should you put your stop?
ZH: 止损应该放多远才好？
27:24 - 27:27
EN: If you don’t see any obvious nearby resistance,
ZH: 如果你在附近没有看到明显的阻力
27:27 - 27:29
EN: using a Measured Move up is reasonable.
ZH: 可以使用MM目标位
27:29 - 27:33
EN: The bulls want this to be a breakout that leads to a Measured Move up.
ZH: 多头想要在突破之后继续上涨到MM目标位
27:33 - 27:38
EN: It’s a Trading Range, and therefore it’s probably
ZH: 这是一个震荡区间，所以大概率突破会失败， 无法涨到MM目标位
27:35 - 27:38
EN: not going to be a breakout leading to a Measured Move up,
ZH: 这是一个震荡区间，所以大概率突破会失败， 无法涨到MM目标位
27:38 - 27:41
EN: and if you use a stop just above a Measured Move up,
ZH: 所以，如果你把止损放在MM目标位的外面，
27:41 - 27:42
EN: it’s probably not going to get hit.
ZH: 它大概率是不会被打到的
27:46 - 27:49
EN: This high went 4 ticks above that high.
ZH: 这个高点，超过这个高点4 ticks
27:53 - 27:55
EN: Minimum scalp is 4 ticks.
ZH: 剥头皮的最小目标是4 ticks（注：ES的1个点 = 4 ticks， 其他品种未必，比如COMEX黄金期货1个点 = 10 ticks）
27:56 - 28:00
EN: A trader selling at this high might scale in 4 ticks above,
ZH: 在这个高点挂单做空的空头，可能会在上方4 ticks加仓做空
28:00 - 28:03
EN: knowing that the breakout here went 4 ticks above.
ZH: 因为之前的突破幅度是4 ticks
28:03 - 28:06
EN: Maybe this one will only go 4 ticks above.
ZH: 也许这次也只有4 ticks
28:06 - 28:10
EN: This one went more than 4 ticks above, maybe 8 ticks.
ZH: 这里的突破幅度大于4 ticks，也许是8 ticks
28:09 - 28:10
EN: I don’t know.
ZH: 这里的突破幅度大于4 ticks，也许是8 ticks
28:10 - 28:15
EN: But in any case, bears are confident that if we do get above this high,
ZH: 总之，空头很有信心，就算突破前期高点
28:15 - 28:17
EN: it’s probably not going much above the high
ZH: 大概率也不会上涨太多
28:17 - 28:19
EN: before it pulls back below the breakout point.
ZH: 很快就会跌回到突破点下方
28:26 - 28:34
EN: Instead of selling this high and selling more 4 ticks higher,
ZH: 一些空头在这个高点挂单做空之后， 不会直接在上方4 ticks加仓，
28:29 - 28:34
EN: many bears who sold at this high and got filled here will sell more
ZH: 一些空头在这个高点挂单做空之后， 不会直接在上方4 ticks加仓，
28:34 - 28:38
EN: on a reversal down below a bear bar as long as the second entry
ZH: 而是会在反转下跌时，在阴线的下方卖出更多
28:38 - 28:42
EN: is at least the size of a scalp above the first.
ZH: 只要加仓的地方距离初始入场价格至少有1个点
28:42 - 28:47
EN: Usually I only take that stop entry sell if the second entry
ZH: 通常，我加仓的位置和初始入场价格
28:47 - 28:50
EN: is at least two or three times the size of a minimum scalp,
ZH: 至少要隔开剥头皮最小目标的两到三倍
28:50 - 28:52
EN: so 2 or 3 points higher.
ZH: 也就是至少要距离两三个点
28:56 - 29:03
EN: If you scale in, either way, a lot of traders will get out breakeven
ZH: 如果加仓了——不管是哪种方式， 很多空头会在初始入场价格平仓，也就是前期高点
29:00 - 29:07
EN: at their first entry – which is at this high; they sold right here
ZH: 如果加仓了——不管是哪种方式， 很多空头会在初始入场价格平仓，也就是前期高点 这里的初始仓位打平，上方加仓的部分赚到剥头皮的利润
29:04 - 29:07
EN: - and then with a profit on their second, higher entry.
ZH: 这里的初始仓位打平，上方加仓的部分赚到剥头皮的利润
Slide 020
Time: 29:09
Bilingual Transcript
29:13 - 29:18
EN: Bears are looking to sell above a prior high in the top half of the range.
ZH: 空头想要在区间上半部分的前期高点上方做空
29:18 - 29:20
EN: This is a very strong reversal up.
ZH: 这一段反转上涨非常强势
29:21 - 29:25
EN: If you see this forming, you’re not going to be placing a limit order
ZH: 当你看到这样的行情，最好不要在前期高点挂限价卖单做空
29:25 - 29:32
EN: to sell at that high because the odds are too great this will be a Double Bottom
ZH: 因为非常大的概率，这是一个双底， 或者楔形牛旗，然后进入上涨趋势
29:29 - 29:32
EN: or a Wedge bull flag and the start of a bull trend.
ZH: 因为非常大的概率，这是一个双底， 或者楔形牛旗，然后进入上涨趋势
29:36 - 29:40
EN: However, when you get a strong rally like this and the context is good
ZH: 看到这样的上涨，而且背景很不错
29:40 - 29:45
EN: - Wedge bull flag, Double Bottom, Higher Low – the probability favors higher prices.
ZH: ——楔形牛旗，双底，低点抬高——很大的概率会继续上涨
29:45 - 29:52
EN: So it’s usually not good to place a limit order to sell at this high
ZH: 通常，当你看到市场上涨得如此快速时， 最好不要逆势用限价卖单做空
29:50 - 29:52
EN: when you see the market going up so quickly.
ZH: 通常，当你看到市场上涨得如此快速时， 最好不要逆势用限价卖单做空
30:02 - 30:07
EN: We have a Double Bottom, a break below the Double Bottom,
ZH: 双底，跌破双底失败并反转上涨， 所以这相当于是楔形底
30:04 - 30:07
EN: and a reversal up, and therefore it’s a type of a Wedge Bottom.
ZH: 双底，跌破双底失败并反转上涨， 所以这相当于是楔形底
30:07 - 30:09
EN: Failed breakout below a Double Bottom.
ZH: 跌破双底失败，是楔形底
30:09 - 30:11
EN: It’s also a Higher Low.
ZH: 也是低点抬高的大反转
30:11 - 30:13
EN: We don’t know what the bars to the left look like,
ZH: 我们看不到左边的K线
30:13 - 30:15
EN: but let’s say it was a bear trend.
ZH: 但假设左边是下降趋势
30:15 - 30:19
EN: This would be a bull breakout and this would be a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 这里突破下降趋势线，然后这就变成了低点抬高的大反转
30:23 - 30:26
EN: Let’s say you wanted to bet on a 2nd Leg Trap.
ZH: 假设你想要押注它是第2段陷阱
30:26 - 30:30
EN: You’re betting that Leg 1 is a Wedge and that Leg 2
ZH: 你认为这个3推上涨是第1段，
30:30 - 30:33
EN: will be a strong breakout attempt that will fail.
ZH: 第2段强势的上涨会失败、反转
30:34 - 30:37
EN: If you’re willing to use a wide stop and trade small,
ZH: 如果你真的愿意设置宽止损、用小仓位交易，
30:37 - 30:39
EN: you could place a limit order to sell at that high,
ZH: 你可以把限价卖单挂在那个高点
30:39 - 30:41
EN: and you would get filled right here.
ZH: 订单会在这里成交
30:45 - 30:50
EN: For a stop, you want to use a stop a little bit more than a Measured Move up.
ZH: 至于止损，可以放在MM目标位上方一点点
30:52 - 30:54
EN: This is a Double Bottom here or here.
ZH: 它，或者它，是一个双底
30:54 - 30:55
EN: This is the neckline.
ZH: 颈线在这里
30:56 - 31:00
EN: Measured Move up is here, and you put the stop just a little bit above,
ZH: MM目标位在这里，你把止损放在它的上方
31:00 - 31:08
EN: thinking that the bulls are betting it’s going to be a breakout
ZH: 多头押注突破会成功，会进入上涨趋势并涨到MM目标位
31:04 - 31:08
EN: and the start of a bull trend and that it’ll reach a Measured Move.
ZH: 多头押注突破会成功，会进入上涨趋势并涨到MM目标位
31:08 - 31:12
EN: You’re betting that the rally will be a 2nd Leg Trap in a Trading Range,
ZH: 而你押注这段上涨是震荡区间中的第2段陷阱
31:12 - 31:16
EN: in which case it should not reach the target that the bull trend traders need.
ZH: 如果你是对的，那么它就不应该涨到多头的MM目标位
31:16 - 31:18
EN: You’re betting it’s a Trading Range, not a trend.
ZH: 你押注这是震荡区间，而不是趋势
31:21 - 31:32
EN: A good way to scale in in a situation like this is wait for a bear bar
ZH: 遇到这种行情，最好的加仓方法是：等待一根阴线收在最低， 在它的下方挂突破卖单、加仓做空
31:27 - 31:32
EN: closing on or near its low and then sell more on a stop just below its low,
ZH: 遇到这种行情，最好的加仓方法是：等待一根阴线收在最低， 在它的下方挂突破卖单、加仓做空
31:32 - 31:38
EN: and then plan on getting out breakeven at the first entry price
ZH: 然后计划在初始入场价格平仓——初始仓位打平， 加仓的部分赚钱
31:35 - 31:38
EN: and then with a profit on your higher entry price.
ZH: 然后计划在初始入场价格平仓——初始仓位打平， 加仓的部分赚钱
31:44 - 31:45
EN: This is the end of the session.
ZH: 这是当天的收盘
31:45 - 31:48
EN: Did not get down to your first entry.
ZH: 没有跌到初始入场价格
31:49 - 31:51
EN: It’s reasonable to exit at the end of the session.
ZH: 在收盘前离场是合理的
31:51 - 31:55
EN: You’d have a small loss here and a bigger profit here.
ZH: 初始仓位小亏，加仓部分的利润略微多一些
Slide 021
Time: 32:00
Bilingual Transcript
32:04 - 32:12
EN: The reason traders scale in is to increase the probability of making money
ZH: 加仓的目的是为了增加赚钱的概率， 或者降低亏损的金额和概率（注：也有可能大幅增加亏损的金额）
32:09 - 32:12
EN: or to reduce the size or the probability of losing.
ZH: 加仓的目的是为了增加赚钱的概率， 或者降低亏损的金额和概率（注：也有可能大幅增加亏损的金额）
32:12 - 32:16
EN: So if you enter a trade and it turns out to be bad and you do not want
ZH: 入场之后，如果发现情况不对，而你不愿意亏损离场，
32:16 - 32:20
EN: to exit with a loss, some traders will scale in to avoid the loss.
ZH: 一些交易者会通过加仓来避免亏损 （注：对于大部分交易者来说，更好的做法是，接受小亏离场）
32:26 - 32:30
EN: Some traders, when they take an entry that they think is reasonable
ZH: 一些交易者，如果他们做了一笔自认为合理的交易
32:30 - 32:33
EN: and then conclude that the trade is bad, they will scale
ZH: 但入场之后发现情况不对，他们就会加仓
32:33 - 32:37
EN: in not to make a profit, but to avoid a loss.
ZH: 不是为了赚钱，而是为了避免亏损
32:45 - 32:53
EN: A trader taking this sell, he might start thinking that maybe this
ZH: 在这个高点挂单做空的空头，也许只是认为它是震荡区间中的上涨波段， 而没有考虑到它是第2段陷阱（注：上涨的强度超出预期）
32:49 - 32:53
EN: is going to be a bull leg in a Trading Range instead of a 2nd Leg Trap.
ZH: 在这个高点挂单做空的空头，也许只是认为它是震荡区间中的上涨波段， 而没有考虑到它是第2段陷阱（注：上涨的强度超出预期）
32:54 - 32:57
EN: He’s therefore not so much thinking about making a profit
ZH: 所以他现在不再考虑是否能赚钱
32:57 - 33:00
EN: as he is about trying to avoid a loss.
ZH: 而是在争取避免亏损
33:08 - 33:13
EN: Most traders never plan to let a wide stop get hit, and a lot of traders,
ZH: 职业交易员不会真的让宽止损被打到，
33:13 - 33:16
EN: when they see the breakout bar and a follow-through bar,
ZH: 很多时候，当他们看到突破之后还有跟随，
33:16 - 33:22
EN: they’ll just get out at the market, knowing that a lot of other traders
ZH: 他们会直接市价止损，因为他们知道有很多人会在它的收盘买入， 押注价格至少还会再上涨一些
33:19 - 33:22
EN: will buy at that close, betting on at least a little bit more up.
ZH: 他们会直接市价止损，因为他们知道有很多人会在它的收盘买入， 押注价格至少还会再上涨一些
33:23 - 33:28
EN: So you take your short here, you see a decent size bull bar closing on its high,
ZH: 你在这里做空，然后看到一根大阳线收在最高
33:28 - 33:31
EN: so a good breakout bar – and then the follow-through bar,
ZH: 它是一根很好的突破K线，然后还有跟随K线
33:31 - 33:34
EN: even though it has a big tail on top, it has a bull body.
ZH: 尽管上影线很长，但它毕竟也是阳线
33:34 - 33:37
EN: The odds are we’re going up at least a little bit more.
ZH: 大概率还会再上涨一些
33:37 - 33:41
EN: A lot of the bears who sold this high would just take the loss right here.
ZH: 很多在这个高点挂单做空的空头会直接止损离场
Slide 022
Time: 33:45
Bilingual Transcript
33:47 - 33:53
EN: Other traders would bet that the rally, as strong as it is,
ZH: 一些空头会押注：即使上涨这么强势， 但它仍然有可能只是震荡区间中的上涨波段
33:51 - 33:53
EN: is still more likely a bull leg in a Trading Range
ZH: 一些空头会押注：即使上涨这么强势， 但它仍然有可能只是震荡区间中的上涨波段
33:53 - 33:55
EN: than the start of a bear trend,
ZH: 而不是上涨趋势的开始
33:55 - 33:59
EN: and they will therefore rely on their stop just above the Measured Move.
ZH: 所以他们会依赖自己放在MM目标位上方的止损
34:07 - 34:10
EN: This is a terrible situation for a scale-in trader.
ZH: 对于逆势加仓的交易者来说，这是非常可怕的行情
34:10 - 34:13
EN: However, it was reasonable to take the short,
ZH: 然而，在这里做空是合理的
34:13 - 34:18
EN: and if a trader uses a wide stop and manages his trade appropriately,
ZH: 如果一个空头使用宽止损并正确地管理交易
34:18 - 34:24
EN: he has an 80% chance of getting out at least breakeven
ZH: 80%的概率他至少能打平离场，也就是避免亏损
34:22 - 34:24
EN: - in other words, avoiding a loss.
ZH: 80%的概率他至少能打平离场，也就是避免亏损
34:27 - 34:30
EN: The best way to avoid a loss in a trade like that is to look
ZH: 在这种交易中，空头避免亏损的最好方法是：
34:30 - 34:34
EN: for a bear bar closing near its low and then sell more below that bear bar.
ZH: 等一根阴线收在最低，然后在那个阴线下方加仓做空
34:35 - 34:42
EN: You have an 80% chance that the market’s going to come at least midway
ZH: 有80%的概率，市场至少会跌到两次入场价格的中点
34:39 - 34:42
EN: between your first sell and your second sell,
ZH: 有80%的概率，市场至少会跌到两次入场价格的中点
34:42 - 34:45
EN: and that would allow you to get out breakeven on the trade.
ZH: 这样的话你就能打平离场
34:45 - 34:52
EN: It might even come back to your first entry, and then you could get out breakeven
ZH: 甚至有概率跌到你的初始入场价格， 这样的话，初始仓位打平，加仓的部分赚钱
34:49 - 34:52
EN: on your first and with a profit on your second.
ZH: 甚至有概率跌到你的初始入场价格， 这样的话，初始仓位打平，加仓的部分赚钱
35:01 - 35:06
EN: You could decide that the breakout is so strong, you’re so disappointed,
ZH: 如果你认为突破太强势，你很失望，
35:06 - 35:10
EN: that you’ll be happy just to get out breakeven – in which case you sell here,
ZH: 能够打平离场就很开心了——你在前期高点挂单做空
35:10 - 35:12
EN: you sell more on a stop below that bear bar,
ZH: 在这根阴线下方挂突破卖单加仓，
35:12 - 35:16
EN: you exit breakeven at the midpoint between your two entries.
ZH: 然后在两次入场价格的中点平仓
35:16 - 35:21
EN: A loss here, a profit here, and they cancel each other out.
ZH: 这里亏钱，这里赚钱，互相抵消
35:21 - 35:26
EN: The alternative is to hold just in case we reverse down
ZH: 也可以继续持有，因为价格可能会跌到突破点下方，
35:25 - 35:32
EN: below the breakout point here, allowing you to get out breakeven
ZH: 也可以继续持有，因为价格可能会跌到突破点下方， 让你的初始仓位打平，加仓的部分赚钱
35:29 - 35:32
EN: on your first entry and with a profit on your second.
ZH: 让你的初始仓位打平，加仓的部分赚钱
35:33 - 35:35
EN: Here, it did not quite get there,
ZH: 这里没有跌到突破点
35:35 - 35:38
EN: and you just exit at the end of the day with a small profit.
ZH: 你在收盘前离场，总体盈利了一点点
35:39 - 35:42
EN: A small loss here, a bigger win there.
ZH: 这里小亏，这里稍微多赚了一点
Slide 023
Time: 35:45
Bilingual Transcript
35:50 - 35:53
EN: The reason why a lot of traders like to use wide stops
ZH: 很多交易者喜欢用宽止损的原因是
35:53 - 35:59
EN: is because it gives them time to make decisions
ZH: 宽止损给了他们更多的时间去做决定， 而且增加了赚钱的概率
35:56 - 35:59
EN: and it increases the probability of making a profit.
ZH: 宽止损给了他们更多的时间去做决定， 而且增加了赚钱的概率
36:00 - 36:05
EN: The reason why you always have a stop in the market is because of black swans.
ZH: 但你必须设置一个止损，以防黑天鹅事件的发生
36:05 - 36:08
EN: If you lived in England a couple hundred years ago,
ZH: 如果你几百年前住在英国
36:08 - 36:13
EN: every swan you saw was white, and you would assume that black swans do not exist.
ZH: 你看到的每只天鹅都是白色的，你会认为不存在黑天鹅这种东西
36:13 - 36:16
EN: However, if you were a world traveler,
ZH: 然而，如果你环游世界
36:16 - 36:20
EN: you’d find out in New Zealand and Australia there are a lot of black swans.
ZH: 你会发现新西兰和澳大利亚有很多黑天鹅
36:20 - 36:23
EN: So things that you think cannot happen, can happen.
ZH: 你以为不会发生的事情，实际上有可能会发生
36:24 - 36:27
EN: Because you do not think the market can break into a bull trend,
ZH: 你认为市场不会突破进入上涨趋势
36:27 - 36:30
EN: that’s not reason enough to hold forever.
ZH: 这不是一直做空的理由
36:30 - 36:37
EN: You always need a stop because this could do a low probability thing
ZH: 你总是需要设置止损，因为小概率事件可能会发生—— 市场一直上涨、上涨、上涨
36:34 - 36:37
EN: and just keep going up and up and up,
ZH: 你总是需要设置止损，因为小概率事件可能会发生—— 市场一直上涨、上涨、上涨
36:37 - 36:40
EN: and you need some stop to contain your loss.
ZH: 你必须要一个止损来限制亏损
36:45 - 36:47
EN: Now, is a trader going to let that stop get hit?
ZH: 交易者会让那个止损真的被打到吗？
36:47 - 36:48
EN: Probably not.
ZH: 基本不会
36:48 - 36:52
EN: Most traders who use wide stops are using wide stops to give themselves time
ZH: 大多数交易者使用宽止损，是为了给自己更多做决定的时间，
36:52 - 36:57
EN: to make decisions and to manage the trade, to scale in to avoid a loss.
ZH: 来思考如何管理，通过加仓来避免亏损
36:57 - 36:59
EN: They’re never going to let that stop get hit.
ZH: 他们不会让那个止损真的被打到
36:59 - 37:03
EN: Sometimes it will, but they’re almost always going to get out before it’s hit.
ZH: 也许很偶尔会打到，但基本都会在止损被打到之前离场
37:08 - 37:13
EN: That stop is just to protect yourself against something unusual and unexpected,
ZH: 那个止损只是为了保护自己免遭意外行情造成的大亏
37:13 - 37:16
EN: and you don’t intend on letting it get hit.
ZH: 你并不想让它真的被打到
37:16 - 37:19
EN: So let’s say the market’s going up here and you do not have a stop,
ZH: 假设市场不断上涨，你没有设置止损
37:19 - 37:25
EN: and you get a phone call from somebody and you have to run out,
ZH: 你接到某人的电话，有紧急的医疗情况
37:23 - 37:25
EN: an emergency for some medical problem.
ZH: 你接到某人的电话，有紧急的医疗情况
37:25 - 37:30
EN: If you didn’t have a stop and you didn’t exit, you rushed out the door,
ZH: 如果你在冲出门之前没有设置止损、没有平仓离场
37:30 - 37:32
EN: the market could keep going up and you’d get a huge loss.
ZH: 市场可以一直上涨，最终导致巨大的亏损
37:32 - 37:37
EN: Let’s say your computer crashed or your electricity went out or your phone died
ZH: 假设你的电脑死机了，或者停电了，同时手机也没电了
37:37 - 37:41
EN: or some other unexpected thing, or your broker was having a technical problem.
ZH: 或者发生了其它的意外，或者你的券商服务器坏了
37:42 - 37:47
EN: You need some stop in the market to protect against very low probability events,
ZH: 你需要把止损单挂在市场里，保护自己免遭小概率事件的影响
37:47 - 37:52
EN: because those low probability events happen, and they can cause huge losses.
ZH: 有时那些小概率事件真的会发生，并且导致巨大的亏损
38:03 - 38:05
EN: I began by talking about 2nd Leg Traps.
ZH: 这节课我先是讲了第2段陷阱
Slide 024
Time: 38:05
Bilingual Transcript
38:05 - 38:10
EN: When the market’s in a Trading Range, it often has a second leg up or down
ZH: 当市场处于震荡区间时，经常会有第2段上涨或下跌
38:10 - 38:15
EN: that looks especially strong, and it looks like the market
ZH: 它们看起来非常强势，市场似乎正在从震荡区间进入趋势
38:13 - 38:15
EN: is converting from a Trading Range into a trend.
ZH: 它们看起来非常强势，市场似乎正在从震荡区间进入趋势
38:16 - 38:22
EN: But my 80% rule, 80% of strong breakout attempts in Trading Ranges will fail,
ZH: 但根据80%法则——震荡区间中80%的突破尝试都会失败
38:22 - 38:26
EN: and therefore you have a higher probability of making money betting
ZH: 所以押注突破失败有更高的概率可以赚钱——
38:26 - 38:32
EN: that breakouts will fail, looking to buy a reversal up
ZH: 从底部反转上涨时做多，从顶部反转下跌时做空
38:30 - 38:32
EN: from the bottom or sell a reversal down from the top.
ZH: 从底部反转上涨时做多，从顶部反转下跌时做空
38:33 - 38:40
EN: If a leg up is very strong, it’s usually better to wait
ZH: 如果上涨波段非常强势，最好等待第2做空入场点，比如小双顶
38:36 - 38:40
EN: to enter on a second entry, like a Micro Double Top.
ZH: 如果上涨波段非常强势，最好等待第2做空入场点，比如小双顶
38:40 - 38:47
EN: If a leg down is very strong, it’s usually better to enter
ZH: 如果上跌波段非常强势，最好等待第2做多入场点，比如小双底
38:44 - 38:47
EN: with a second entry buy, like a Micro Double Bottom.
ZH: 如果上跌波段非常强势，最好等待第2做多入场点，比如小双底
38:47 - 38:49
EN: Beginners should be entering with stops.
ZH: 新手应该用突破单入场
38:49 - 38:54
EN: Experienced traders will often use wide stops and scale in,
ZH: 经验丰富的交易员经常会使用宽止损并加仓
38:54 - 38:56
EN: and they’ll often enter with limit orders,
ZH: 他们经常使用限价单入场
38:56 - 39:00
EN: but that’s only skilled, consistently profitable traders.
ZH: 但只有技巧高明、稳定盈利的交易员才能这么做
39:00 - 39:02
EN: Beginners should only enter with stops.
ZH: 新手应该只用突破单入场
39:07 - 39:08
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
39:08 - 39:10
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
39:10 - 39:14
EN: This is the third of four videos on trading in Trading Ranges.
ZH: 如何交易震荡区间的第3节课，就先讲到这里