al-brooks-course
31A - Swing Trading and Scalping
Raw transcript and slide notes for 31A - Swing Trading and Scalping.
Overview
- Slides: 19
- Transcript segments: 827
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:09
EN: This is the first of four videos on swing trading and scalping.
ZH: 接下来的4节课我们来讲波段交易和剥头皮交易
Slide 001
Time: 00:11
Bilingual Transcript
00:13 - 00:17
EN: I want to begin by distinguishing swing trading from scalping.
ZH: 首先我会讲如何区分波段交易和剥头皮交易
00:17 - 00:20
EN: Swing trading, a trader is holding for a big reward.
ZH: 波段交易中，交易者为了赚大钱而坚定持仓
00:20 - 00:23
EN: Usually the probability is not high.
ZH: 通常这种交易的胜率不高
00:23 - 00:30
EN: Scalping, on the other hand,
ZH: 而在剥头皮交易中， 交易者的目的是高胜率、小利润
00:25 - 00:30
EN: a trader is looking for a very high probability of making a small profit.
ZH: 而在剥头皮交易中， 交易者的目的是高胜率、小利润
00:30 - 00:33
EN: A scalper is focusing on probability,
ZH: 剥头皮交易者强调的是胜率
00:33 - 00:39
EN: and he gets his high probability by accepting worse risk/reward.
ZH: 他以盈亏比变差的代价，来提高胜率
00:39 - 00:44
EN: A swing trader is focusing on reward, which means good risk/reward,
ZH: 波段交易者强调的是利润，也就是较好的盈亏比
00:44 - 00:46
EN: and that always comes with low probability.
ZH: 但往往胜率不是那么高
00:46 - 00:51
EN: There has to be a reason for an institution to take the other side of your trade.
ZH: 机构一定具有某方面的优势，才愿意做你的对手盘，
00:52 - 00:58
EN: Next I want to talk about the ideal environments
ZH: 然后我会讲，对于波段交易者和剥头皮交易者而言， 理想的环境（背景）分别是什么
00:55 - 00:58
EN: for swing traders and for scalpers.
ZH: 然后我会讲，对于波段交易者和剥头皮交易者而言， 理想的环境（背景）分别是什么
00:58 - 01:01
EN: Remember, they’re trying to accomplish two different things.
ZH: 要知道，他们两者的目标是不同的
Slide 002
Time: 01:05
Bilingual Transcript
01:06 - 01:09
EN: I think swing traders have a different personality from scalpers.
ZH: 我认为波段交易者和剥头皮交易者的性格也是不同的
01:09 - 01:13
EN: Although scalpers sometimes swing part of their trade
ZH: 尽管剥头皮交易者有时也会持有部分仓位做波段交易
01:13 - 01:16
EN: and swing traders sometimes scalp,
ZH: 波段交易者有时也会做剥头皮交易
01:16 - 01:19
EN: in general I think it’s two different mindsets.
ZH: 但总体而言，我认为这是两种不同的思路
01:19 - 01:22
EN: I think the vast majority of profitable traders are swing traders.
ZH: 绝大多数稳定盈利的人都是波段交易者
01:22 - 01:27
EN: It takes a very special and unusual personality to be a successful scalper.
ZH: 想要成为一名成功的剥头皮交易者， 需要一种非常特殊和不寻常的性格
01:27 - 01:30
EN: Most traders should not be scalping.
ZH: 大多数交易者都不应该做剥头皮交易
01:33 - 01:35
EN: We have a good bull breakout.
ZH: 非常不错的多头突破
01:35 - 01:40
EN: 4 consecutive bull bars, 3 good size bars closing on their highs.
ZH: 连续4根阳线，其中3根体积很大、收在最高
01:40 - 01:44
EN: This is a reasonable buy for both a scalper and for a swing trader.
ZH: 对于剥头皮和波段交易者来说， 这都是一个合理的做多机会
01:46 - 01:49
EN: If they buy, they could put a stop right below the low of this bar.
ZH: 如果他们做多，可以把止损放在这根K线的低点下方
01:49 - 01:53
EN: It’s a second entry buy – Leg 1, pullback, Leg 2.
ZH: 这是第2做多入场点——1，回调，2
01:53 - 01:57
EN: The first leg has a reasonable buy here and here as well,
ZH: 第1段上涨在这里和这里，都有合理的做多机会
01:57 - 02:04
EN: but this is a second attempt at trend resumption up,
ZH: 但这是趋势第2次尝试继续上涨，并且是50%回调
02:02 - 02:04
EN: and it’s around a 50% pullback.
ZH: 但这是趋势第2次尝试继续上涨，并且是50%回调
02:10 - 02:14
EN: The initial risk is to below the bottom of the signal bar,
ZH: 初始风险是在信号K线的低点下方
02:14 - 02:16
EN: and the traders buy just above the high of the signal bar.
ZH: 交易者在信号K线的高点上方买入
02:16 - 02:19
EN: So they get in here, their initial risk is here.
ZH: 所以他们在这里入场，初始风险在这里
02:19 - 02:28
EN: It’s a fairly high probability trade, and therefore traders
ZH: 这笔交易的胜率很高，所以如果在1倍的风险的地方离场， 数学期望是正的
02:23 - 02:28
EN: have a positive Trader’s Equation if they exit
ZH: 这笔交易的胜率很高，所以如果在1倍的风险的地方离场， 数学期望是正的
02:26 - 02:28
EN: with a reward simply equal to their risk.
ZH: 这笔交易的胜率很高，所以如果在1倍的风险的地方离场， 数学期望是正的
02:28 - 02:32
EN: A scalper buying here, stop here, can then get out here
ZH: 剥头皮交易者在这里买入，止损在这里， 然后在这里离场
02:32 - 02:37
EN: - a reward equal to his risk – and have a positive Trader’s Equation.
ZH: ——利润等于风险——数学期望是正的，
02:37 - 02:40
EN: Some scalpers might hold, hoping for more,
ZH: 一些剥头皮交易者会继续持有，期待更大的利润
02:40 - 02:47
EN: and some of those scalpers will then get out on a reversal down below
ZH: 而一些人会在价格跌破这根反转K线低点时离场——就在这个地方
02:44 - 02:47
EN: the low of this bar, and they’ll get out right here.
ZH: 而一些人会在价格跌破这根反转K线低点时离场——就在这个地方
02:47 - 02:52
EN: Their concern, maybe we’ve got a Double Top Lower High and a swing down.
ZH: 他们担心这可能是双顶、高点降低，然后变成下跌波段
02:53 - 02:59
EN: A scalper wants high probability of a profit, and that means a quick profit,
ZH: 剥头皮交易者想要高胜率的利润，这意味着赚快钱
02:59 - 03:03
EN: and they do not want pullbacks, or they only want brief pullbacks.
ZH: 他们不想要回调，或者只能接受短暂的小回调 （注：不愿意接受大的利润回撤）
03:03 - 03:07
EN: In return, they’re willing to accept small reward.
ZH: 作为（高胜率的）交换，他们接受小的利润
03:07 - 03:12
EN: Any trader who wants a high probability trade
ZH: 任何想要高胜率的交易者都要接受利润变小
03:10 - 03:12
EN: is going to be taking a small profit.
ZH: 任何想要高胜率的交易者都要接受利润变小
03:12 - 03:13
EN: That is the tradeoff.
ZH: 这就是权衡
03:13 - 03:17
EN: There always has to be a reason for an institution
ZH: 机构一定具有某方面的优势，才愿意做你的对手盘
03:16 - 03:17
EN: to take the other side of the trade.
ZH: 机构一定具有某方面的优势，才愿意做你的对手盘
03:17 - 03:26
EN: If you get high probability, you get small reward,
ZH: 如果你的胜率高、利润小、而且风险较大—— 换句话说，盈亏比不好
03:21 - 03:26
EN: and generally relatively big risk – in other words, a bad risk/reward ratio.
ZH: 如果你的胜率高、利润小、而且风险较大—— 换句话说，盈亏比不好
03:29 - 03:34
EN: In general, a scalper needs a probability of 60% to 90%
ZH: 通常，剥头皮交易者需要60%到90%的胜率，
03:34 - 03:37
EN: that the market is going to reach his reward before it hits his stop.
ZH: 市场先会到达他的止盈目标，而不是打掉止损
03:38 - 03:42
EN: Also in general, the reward is about the same size as the risk
ZH: 同时，利润大约等于风险
03:42 - 03:46
EN: - in other words, a risk/reward ratio of 1, which is not very good.
ZH: 也就是说，盈亏比等于1，这并不是很好
03:46 - 03:54
EN: Most traders need to be going for a reward that is at least twice
ZH: 大多数交易者需要追求至少两倍于风险的利润， 才能保持稳定盈利
03:51 - 03:54
EN: as big as their risk if they’re going to be consistently profitable.
ZH: 大多数交易者需要追求至少两倍于风险的利润， 才能保持稳定盈利
03:58 - 04:00
EN: The scalper gets out here.
ZH: 剥头皮交易者在这里离场
04:00 - 04:04
EN: The swing trader holds onto his trade until the premise is no longer valid
ZH: 而波段交易者坚定持有，直到交易的前提不再成立
04:04 - 04:09
EN: - for example, until there’s a reasonable reason for bears to take a short.
ZH: ——例如，直到出现合理的理由让空头入场做空
04:09 - 04:11
EN: Possible Final Flag.
ZH: 这是潜在的末端旗形
04:11 - 04:15
EN: The biggest bull bar, 20 or more bars into the trend.
ZH: 趋势已经持续了超过20根K线，再出现最大的大阳线
04:15 - 04:17
EN: Probably a climactic end to the trend.
ZH: 可能是趋势的高潮结尾
04:17 - 04:19
EN: A bear bar closing on its low.
ZH: 又出现了收在最低的阴线
04:19 - 04:22
EN: This is a reasonable location to exit longs, thinking
ZH: 多头在这里离场是合理的，
04:22 - 04:25
EN: that either the market’s going to enter a bear trend,
ZH: 因为市场要么会反转成下降趋势
04:25 - 04:29
EN: or it’s going to go sideways and evolve into a Trading Range.
ZH: 要么横盘进入震荡区间
04:29 - 04:32
EN: The premise of a bull trend is now much lower,
ZH: 上涨趋势继续的概率现在已经大大降低了
04:32 - 04:35
EN: so it’s reasonable for a swing trader to get out here.
ZH: 所以波段交易者在这里离场是合理的
04:35 - 04:40
EN: If he does, his reward is many times bigger than his initial risk.
ZH: 如果这样做，他的利润是初始风险的很多倍
Slide 003
Time: 04:45
Bilingual Transcript
04:50 - 04:55
EN: A scalper will often trade a minor reversal if he thinks the reversal
ZH: 剥头皮交易者经常会做小反转，
04:55 - 04:58
EN: will be far enough down for him to make a profit
ZH: 前提是他认为小反转的幅度足够他赚钱——
04:58 - 05:00
EN: - it has to be at least the minimum scalp size
ZH: 至少达到剥头皮交易的最小幅度——
05:00 - 05:04
EN: - and if he thinks the probability is high enough to offset the risk.
ZH: 而且他认为胜率足够高、可以抵消风险
05:04 - 05:08
EN: Remember, a minor reversal means that the trend is likely to continue
ZH: 要知道，小反转意味着趋势大概率会继续，
05:08 - 05:13
EN: or at least evolve into a Trading Range, and not become an opposite trend.
ZH: 或者至少变成震荡区间，而不是变成相反的趋势
05:14 - 05:19
EN: A minor reversal is small, and a scalper only needs a small profit.
ZH: 小反转的幅度很小，而剥头皮交易者也只是需要小利润
05:27 - 05:31
EN: A scalper will often trade against a trend if he thinks the minor reversal
ZH: 所以剥头皮交易者经常会逆势交易——
05:31 - 05:34
EN: will be at least big enough for a minimum scalp.
ZH: 如果他认为小反转的幅度足够赚到剥头皮的利润
05:37 - 05:39
EN: For example, here we have a series of Buy Climaxes
ZH: 例如，这里有一系列的抢购高潮
05:39 - 05:43
EN: - here, here, and then 2 bars here, and then here
ZH: ——这里，这里，这两根K线，还有这里，
05:43 - 05:46
EN: - and this is a very big bar breaking above the top of the bull channel.
ZH: 而这根大阳线尝试加速突破上涨通道的上沿
05:46 - 05:50
EN: A scalper will often sell below the low of that bear bar
ZH: 剥头皮交易者经常会在那根阴线的低点下方做空
05:50 - 05:52
EN: - it’s a decent bear bar closing near its low
ZH: ——不错的阴线，收在最低——
05:52 - 05:57
EN: looking for at least a test of the bottom of the most recent Buy Climax bar.
ZH: 预期至少测试最近一次抢购高潮的起涨点
05:57 - 06:05
EN: He’ll take that short as long as the distance between his entry price
ZH: 只要他的入场点到目标（起涨点）的距离 至少等于剥头皮交易的最小利润
06:02 - 06:11
EN: and that bottom of the Buy Climax bar is at least as big as a minimum scalp,
ZH: 只要他的入场点到目标（起涨点）的距离 至少等于剥头皮交易的最小利润 并且他认为胜率足够高，可以抵消风险， 他就会在这里做空
06:07 - 06:11
EN: and if he thinks the probability is high enough to offset the risk.
ZH: 并且他认为胜率足够高，可以抵消风险， 他就会在这里做空
06:16 - 06:20
EN: Bulls and bears expect a couple legs down after a Parabolic Buy Climax.
ZH: 多头和空头都预期在抛物线抢购高潮后，会有几段下跌
06:20 - 06:24
EN: It’s also up to around a Measured Move up, from this low to this high.
ZH: 同时这里也是MM目标位—— 从这个低点到这个高点（往上翻一倍）
06:24 - 06:26
EN: We have a bull breakout here.
ZH: 突破之后，看MM目标位
06:28 - 06:32
EN: However, they also expect the bull trend to resume after the pullback
ZH: 然而，他们（做空的剥头皮交易者） 也预期回调之后上涨趋势会继续
06:32 - 06:37
EN: - either to here or to here – and therefore the reversal is minor.
ZH: ——要么到这里，要么到这里——因此只是小反转
06:39 - 06:44
EN: The bear who takes that short typically would put his stop above the bear bar.
ZH: 做空的空头通常会将止损放在阴线的上方
06:44 - 06:49
EN: The top of the bull trend is only a little bit higher;
ZH: 或者放在整个上涨趋势最高点的上方， 在比它高一点点的地方
06:46 - 06:49
EN: he could put his stop above the top of the bull trend as well.
ZH: 或者放在整个上涨趋势最高点的上方， 在比它高一点点的地方
06:53 - 06:57
EN: He’s looking for the market to test the bottom of the final Buy Climax bar
ZH: 预期市场测试最后一个抢购高潮K线的起涨点——
06:57 - 07:00
EN: - the biggest bar in the trend, the breakout above the bull channel.
ZH: 趋势中最大的K线，加速突破了上涨通道的上沿
07:00 - 07:02
EN: He’ll take his profit there.
ZH: 他会在那里止盈
Slide 004
Time: 07:05
Bilingual Transcript
07:09 - 07:13
EN: A swing trader will often hold onto his position despite minor reversals,
ZH: 而波段交易者通常会在小反转的时候继续持有，
07:13 - 07:18
EN: because a minor reversal, by definition means that the trend has not changed.
ZH: 因为根据定义，小反转的意思是大趋势并没有改变
07:18 - 07:20
EN: The trend is likely to resume.
ZH: 趋势大概率会继续
07:25 - 07:28
EN: For example, here we have a bull bar, another bull bar,
ZH: 例如，这里有一根阳线，还有这根阳线
07:28 - 07:32
EN: and then we have a pair of bull bars breaking above a Trading Range,
ZH: 然后连续两根阳线，突破震荡区间
07:32 - 07:34
EN: and we have a bull follow-through bar.
ZH: 后续还有跟随的阳线
07:34 - 07:38
EN: A lot of bulls will buy that close, expecting that even if we reverse down here,
ZH: 很多多头会在它的收盘买入，预期就算在这里回调下跌，
07:38 - 07:41
EN: there’ll be at least a second leg up.
ZH: 也至少会有第2段上涨
07:42 - 07:46
EN: If he buys here and it pulls back, he can buy more here.
ZH: 如果他在这里买入，然后回调，他可以在这里加仓买入更多
07:46 - 07:48
EN: It’ll test back up here.
ZH: 押注价格至少会回测这里
07:48 - 07:50
EN: He can get out breakeven on his first entry
ZH: 然后他的第1笔仓位就可以打平，
07:50 - 07:51
EN: and with a profit on his second entry.
ZH: 而加仓的部分赚钱
07:52 - 07:56
EN: We have a pullback.
ZH: 又一根大阳线之后，开始回调——
07:54 - 07:56
EN: It started after 1 more bar
ZH: 又一根大阳线之后，开始回调——
07:56 - 07:59
EN: - a bull breakout of a bull channel and a decent reversal bar.
ZH: 大阳线加速突破上涨通道，然后是一根不错的反转阴线
07:59 - 08:03
EN: It’s probably going to pull back for a couple legs – one, pullback, two.
ZH: 大概率会有几段回调——1，反弹，2
08:03 - 08:05
EN: Tight Channel.
ZH: 窄通道
08:05 - 08:09
EN: It could be the first of a more complex pullback – one, pullback, two.
ZH: 它可能是一个更大的复合型回调的第1段——1，反弹，2
08:10 - 08:15
EN: In any case, any bull buying here believes this is a minor reversal
ZH: 总之，在这里买入的多头认为这只是小反转，
08:15 - 08:19
EN: and that either the reversal down will lead to a Trading Range
ZH: 下跌之后要么进入震荡区间
08:19 - 08:23
EN: - which it did for about 30 or 40 bars – or a resumption of the bull trend,
ZH: ——确实横盘震荡了30~40根K线—— 或者上涨趋势继续
08:23 - 08:30
EN: and therefore he’s willing to buy, not exit on the minor reversal,
ZH: 因此他愿意买入，不会在小反转的时候离场， 而是依赖初始止损
08:28 - 08:30
EN: and simply rely on his stop.
ZH: 因此他愿意买入，不会在小反转的时候离场， 而是依赖初始止损
08:39 - 08:42
EN: Again, a minor reversal means that it’ll be a pullback
ZH: 再次强调，小反转意味着它是一次回调
08:42 - 08:46
EN: - in other words, a bull flag – or at worst, a Trading Range.
ZH: 也就是牛旗，或者最坏的情况是变成震荡区间
08:46 - 08:49
EN: In either case he can avoid a loss by scaling in.
ZH: 无论是哪种情况，他都可以通过加仓来避免亏损
08:49 - 08:51
EN: Even if he had bought this high close right here,
ZH: 即使他在这个最高的收盘价买入
08:51 - 08:55
EN: he could rely on his stop and then buy more either above this bull bar
ZH: 他可以依靠下方的初始止损， 然后在这个阳线的上方加仓买入更多
08:55 - 08:57
EN: or above this bull bar.
ZH: 或者在这个阳线上方加仓
08:58 - 09:00
EN: And then when it gets back up to his original entry price,
ZH: 然后当价格回到他的初始入场价格时，
09:00 - 09:07
EN: had he bought the high close, he could get out breakeven
ZH: 他在这里买入的初始仓位打平，加仓的部分盈利
09:03 - 09:07
EN: at his first entry and with a profit on his lower entry.
ZH: 他在这里买入的初始仓位打平，加仓的部分盈利
09:14 - 09:18
EN: Here, late in the session, we have another reversal.
ZH: 这里，在尾盘，行情再次反转
09:19 - 09:21
EN: However, the bulls are losing momentum.
ZH: 多头正在失去动能
09:21 - 09:23
EN: We’re getting a lot of doji bars.
ZH: 有很多十字星
09:23 - 09:28
EN: A horizontal Trading Range late in a bull trend often becomes the final bull flag.
ZH: 上涨趋势后期的横盘震荡，经常会变成末端牛旗
09:28 - 09:32
EN: We have the biggest bull bar occurring more than 20 bars into a bull trend.
ZH: 上涨趋势持续20多根K线之后出现了最大的大阳线
09:32 - 09:35
EN: Here, we have the biggest bull bar in about 50 bars.
ZH: 这里，它是过去50根K线以来最大的大阳线
09:35 - 09:40
EN: It’s probably an exhaustive end of the trend, and it’s also a nested Wedge.
ZH: 趋势很可能即将衰竭、结束； 同时这也是一个嵌套式楔形
09:40 - 09:44
EN: Different ways to count the three pushes – one, two, three.
ZH: 存在不同的3推——1，2，3
09:44 - 09:46
EN: One, two, three.
ZH: 1，2，3
09:46 - 09:50
EN: Therefore, this has a pretty good chance of being a major reversal leading
ZH: 因此，这有一定的可能性会变成大反转，
09:50 - 09:53
EN: either to a Trading Range or an opposite trend.
ZH: 进入震荡区间，或者变成相反的趋势
09:53 - 09:55
EN: It’s a good location for the bulls to exit.
ZH: 多头在这里离场是非常合理的
09:57 - 10:01
EN: Minor reversal.
ZH: 小反转，很多在这里买入的多头会继续持有
09:58 - 10:01
EN: Many bulls will hold long if they buy here.
ZH: 小反转，很多在这里买入的多头会继续持有
10:01 - 10:06
EN: Major reversal, the bulls will exit, and bears will start to short.
ZH: 大反转，多头离场，空头也会开始做空
10:12 - 10:14
EN: When there’s a major reversal,
ZH: 当出现大反转时
10:14 - 10:18
EN: traders expect either a bear trend or a Trading Range.
ZH: 交易者预期要么变成下降趋势，要么变成震荡区间
10:18 - 10:22
EN: A minor reversal in a bull trend, traders expect either a bull flag
ZH: 上涨趋势中的小反转，交易者预期要么是牛旗，
10:22 - 10:27
EN: and trend resumption or a pullback and a Trading Range.
ZH: 上涨趋势继续；要么是回调进入震荡区间
Slide 005
Time: 10:30
Bilingual Transcript
10:32 - 10:35
EN: Some swing traders will exit when there’s a minor reversal
ZH: 一些波段交易者会在小反转离场——
10:35 - 10:39
EN: if they think the minor reversal might in fact become a major reversal.
ZH: 如果他们认为小反转实际上会变成大反转
10:47 - 10:50
EN: For example, let’s say a bull bought the follow-through bar from this breakout,
ZH: 例如，假设一个多头在突破后的跟随K线买入
10:50 - 10:54
EN: and then he sees an even bigger bar breaking above the top of a bull channel
ZH: 然后他看到一个更大的K线突破了上涨通道的上沿
10:54 - 10:57
EN: and he sees that it’s around a Measured Move up,
ZH: 并且他看到MM目标位就在这里——
10:57 - 11:01
EN: from this low to the top of what was a bear flag.
ZH: 从这个低点到熊旗的高点（往上翻一倍）
11:01 - 11:04
EN: We broke strongly above, and we went up to about a Measured Move
ZH: 强势突破，并且上涨到MM目标位附近
11:04 - 11:07
EN: and then the market’s reversing down.
ZH: 然后市场反转下跌
11:08 - 11:09
EN: This might become a large Trading Range,
ZH: 这可能会变成一个大的震荡区间
11:09 - 11:12
EN: and it could test all the way down to the bottom here.
ZH: 可能会一直下跌，测试这里的底部
11:13 - 11:16
EN: Some swing traders who buy here will exit here,
ZH: 一些前期买入的波段交易者会在这里离场，
11:16 - 11:20
EN: knowing that it’s probably going to either be a Trading Range or a bull flag.
ZH: 因为这可能会变成震荡区间或牛旗
11:21 - 11:25
EN: But they take that exit if they’re willing to buy again
ZH: 如果他们愿意在上涨趋势恢复时重新入场，
11:25 - 11:27
EN: when they think the bull trend is resuming up.
ZH: 他们就会在这里先离场
11:33 - 11:37
EN: For example, they might buy above this bull bar – High 1, High 2
ZH: 例如，他们可能会在这个阳线的上方买入——高1，高2
11:37 - 11:43
EN: - or after a bigger test down to around a 50% pullback above a bull bar.
ZH: ——如果有更大的下跌，他们会在50%回调附近的阳线上方买入
11:44 - 11:47
EN: This is where the Always-In bulls buy again.
ZH: 这就是那些多头会重新入场做多的地方
11:47 - 11:51
EN: This is not enough to make it Always In Short, and therefore it’s Always In Long.
ZH: 这不足以让市场进入单边下跌的趋势， 所以大趋势仍然是上涨的
11:51 - 11:53
EN: It’s around a 50% pullback.
ZH: 这里大约是50%回调
11:53 - 11:56
EN: It’s testing the breakout point above this bear flag.
ZH: 它在测试这个熊旗的突破点
11:56 - 11:58
EN: It’s a reasonable place to get long.
ZH: 这是一个合理的做多入场点
12:02 - 12:06
EN: The bulls who bought again here will exit up here,
ZH: 在这里再次买入的多头，最终会在这里离场，
12:06 - 12:10
EN: toward the end of the session after a possible Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 因为已经临近收盘，而且有大反转的可能性
12:10 - 12:15
EN: Again, a bull who bought for any reason during this bull trend
ZH: 再讲一遍，在这个上涨趋势中买入的多头，
12:15 - 12:19
EN: can rely on his stop, betting that the first reversal down will be minor
ZH: 可以依靠他的初始止损，押注第1次下跌只是小反转，
12:19 - 12:21
EN: and there’ll be at least a small second leg up.
ZH: 至少会有小的第2段上涨
12:22 - 12:27
EN: Or he could exit on a reversal that he thinks might be major
ZH: 或者，当他认为有大反转的风险时，可以先离场
12:27 - 12:32
EN: and then look to buy again on a resumption of the bull trend.
ZH: 然后在上涨趋势恢复的时候再次买入
Slide 006
Time: 12:35
Bilingual Transcript
12:37 - 12:41
EN: I talked about several ways to distinguish
ZH: 我提到了一些区分波段交易和剥头皮交易的方法
12:39 - 12:41
EN: whether a trade is a swing trade or a scalp.
ZH: 我提到了一些区分波段交易和剥头皮交易的方法
12:42 - 12:44
EN: An important way is how a trader plans
ZH: 很重要的一点是，交易者在开仓的时候，
12:44 - 12:47
EN: to manage the trade when he puts the trade on.
ZH: 是如何计划去管理这一笔交易的
12:48 - 12:50
EN: If he’s planning to manage it like a swing trade
ZH: 如果他计划像波段交易一样去管理
12:50 - 13:00
EN: and he holds on through minor reversals and he holds on for 10 bars,
ZH: 在小反转的时候坚定持有，持仓10，20，30根K线， 就算最终的利润小于两倍初始风险或实际风险
12:54 - 13:00
EN: 20 bars, 30 bars, even if his profit is less than two times his initial risk
ZH: 在小反转的时候坚定持有，持仓10，20，30根K线， 就算最终的利润小于两倍初始风险或实际风险
13:00 - 13:02
EN: or his actual risk, it’s still a swing trade.
ZH: 这仍然是一笔波段交易
13:02 - 13:09
EN: If he’s managing it like a swing trade, whether or not it’s profitable at all,
ZH: 如果他像波段交易一样管理，无论最终是否盈利， 那仍然是波段交易
13:07 - 13:09
EN: it’s still a swing trade.
ZH: 如果他像波段交易一样管理，无论最终是否盈利， 那仍然是波段交易
13:13 - 13:17
EN: For example, let’s say a trader looks at this breakout
ZH: 例如，假设一个交易者看到这个突破
13:17 - 13:22
EN: and concludes it’s very strong, and the first reversal down will probably be minor.
ZH: 认为它非常强势，且第1次下跌大概率是小反转，
13:23 - 13:26
EN: He goes ahead and he buys the close of this bar.
ZH: 于是他在这根K线的收盘买入
13:26 - 13:31
EN: He knows it’s consecutive Buy Climaxes here, here, here, and here;
ZH: H他知道这是连续的抢购高潮—— 这里，这里，这里和这里
13:31 - 13:35
EN: however, he assumes that any reversal down will be minor
ZH: 然而，他假设任何下跌都是小反转，
13:35 - 13:38
EN: and become either a bull flag or a Trading Range,
ZH: 会变成牛旗或震荡区间
13:38 - 13:42
EN: and therefore he’s willing to buy
ZH: 因此他愿意买入， 然后把止损放在上涨趋势的起涨点下方
13:40 - 13:42
EN: and put a stop below the bottom of the bull trend.
ZH: 因此他愿意买入， 然后把止损放在上涨趋势的起涨点下方
13:45 - 13:48
EN: There’s something special about this particular setup.
ZH: 这笔交易机会有一个特殊的地方：
13:48 - 13:49
EN: It’s a very strong breakout.
ZH: 这是非常强势的突破
13:49 - 13:54
EN: Whenever you have a very strong breakout like this, there’s a 60% chance
ZH: 每当出现像这样强势的突破时，有60%的概率
13:54 - 13:57
EN: that the market will rally for a Measured Move up
ZH: 市场会上涨到MM目标位——
13:57 - 14:02
EN: from the open of the first bar to the close of the final bar of the breakout.
ZH: 从突破第1根K线的开盘，到最后1根K线的收盘 （往上翻一倍）
14:03 - 14:06
EN: Traders will often put a stop below the bottom of the breakout
ZH: 交易者通常会将止损放在突破的起点下方
14:06 - 14:09
EN: rather than all the way down below the bottom of the bull trend.
ZH: 而不是放在整个上涨趋势的起点下方
14:09 - 14:11
EN: This is reasonable.
ZH: 这是合理的
14:11 - 14:20
EN: Whenever you use a tighter stop like this, the probability of success is less,
ZH: 止损越窄，胜率就越低； 在这里的胜率仍然有60%
14:16 - 14:20
EN: but it’s still in this particular case 60%.
ZH: 止损越窄，胜率就越低； 在这里的胜率仍然有60%
14:20 - 14:23
EN: A very strong bull breakout, a series of bull bars
ZH: 非常强势的多头突破，连续好几根大阳线
14:23 - 14:27
EN: - the market has a 60% chance of continuing up for a Measured Move
ZH: ——市场有60%的概率上涨到MM目标位
14:27 - 14:31
EN: based upon the open of the first bar to the close of the final bar,
ZH: 从它的开盘，到它的收盘（往上翻一倍）
14:31 - 14:33
EN: which would be somewhere up here,
ZH: 差不多在这个位置
14:33 - 14:36
EN: even if there is a pretty big pullback in between.
ZH: 即使中间有相当大幅的回调
14:43 - 14:47
EN: If the market goes straight up here in just 1 bar and he exits,
ZH: 假如市场在下1根K线直接上涨到这里， 然后他止盈离场，
14:47 - 14:48
EN: is it a scalp or a swing?
ZH: 这是剥头皮还是波段（交易）？
14:49 - 14:55
EN: Well, the reward is probably many times greater than the size of a minimum scalp,
ZH: 这里的利润是剥头皮最小利润目标的很多倍，
14:55 - 14:57
EN: and therefore I would call it a swing.
ZH: 因此我会说它是波段交易
14:57 - 15:03
EN: He went for a profit that would have been many times bigger than the actual risk,
ZH: 他的利润比实际风险大很多倍 （注：利润=初始风险，但远大于实际风险）
15:03 - 15:04
EN: and I would call that a swing.
ZH: 所以我会说它是波段交易
15:04 - 15:08
EN: So for example, if he buys here and it just goes straight up here,
ZH: 例如，如果他在这里买入，价格直接上涨到这里
15:08 - 15:10
EN: his actual risk would’ve been very tiny,
ZH: 他的实际风险非常小
15:10 - 15:14
EN: and his reward would’ve been very big relative to that risk.
ZH: 他的利润相对于实际风险来说是很大的
15:14 - 15:15
EN: That would be a swing.
ZH: 所以是波段交易
15:15 - 15:20
EN: Even though he’d be exiting in only 1 bar, which is what a scalper does,
ZH: 即使他在1根K线之后就离场了， 这是剥头皮交易者的做法，
15:20 - 15:22
EN: he would be getting a swing trader’s profit,
ZH: 但他赚到了波段交易的利润
15:22 - 15:31
EN: and he had the intention to hold for many, many bars
ZH: 并且他本来的意愿是：愿意持有很多很多K线， 直到价格达到MM目标位
15:28 - 15:31
EN: with the goal of reaching that Measured Move target.
ZH: 并且他本来的意愿是：愿意持有很多很多K线， 直到价格达到MM目标位
15:35 - 15:37
EN: Look what took place up here.
ZH: 看看这里发生了什么
15:38 - 15:41
EN: The trader held his trade for about 50 bars.
ZH: 交易者持仓了超过50根K线
15:41 - 15:45
EN: He held through a fairly deep pullback, a 50% pullback – a minor reversal,
ZH: 他经历了相当深的回调，50%回调——仍然只是小反转
15:45 - 15:52
EN: though – and now we have a potential final bull flag right below the target.
ZH: 现在，在MM目标位下方出现了潜在的末端牛旗
15:53 - 16:01
EN: It’s fairly common when the market gets near an important target
ZH: 当市场接近一个重要目标位的时候， 在差一点点就碰到的地方反转，这是很常见的
15:58 - 16:01
EN: for the market to turn down before it gets to the target.
ZH: 当市场接近一个重要目标位的时候， 在差一点点就碰到的地方反转，这是很常见的
16:01 - 16:05
EN: Because this is a possible Major Trend Reversal
ZH: 因为这是一个潜在的大反转结构——
16:05 - 16:10
EN: - a Wedge, one, two, three or one, two, three
ZH: 楔形顶——1，2，3； 或者1，2，3
16:10 - 16:16
EN: - a Final Flag, and the biggest bull bar more than 20 bars into the trend.
ZH: 并且是（潜在的）末端旗形； 也是趋势持续20根K线后最大的阳线
16:16 - 16:20
EN: In fact, this bull bar is bigger than all the bull bars for maybe 50 or 60 bars.
ZH: 事实上，它是过去50~60根K线中的最大的大阳线
16:20 - 16:24
EN: Therefore, very likely to be an exhaustion bar.
ZH: 因此，很可能是竭尽型的高潮K线
16:24 - 16:26
EN: It’s reasonable to get out here.
ZH: 在这里离场是合理的
16:26 - 16:29
EN: Some swing traders will continue to hold with their stop
ZH: 一些波段交易者会继续持有，
16:29 - 16:32
EN: below the most recent major Higher Low,
ZH: 把止损放在最近一个重要低点的下方，
16:32 - 16:34
EN: with the intention of getting out near their goal.
ZH: 直到达到了目标位再离场
16:35 - 16:37
EN: When you’re this close to the goal,
ZH: 当你已经离目标这么近时，
16:38 - 16:41
EN: do you really want to continue to use a stop down here?
ZH: 你真的还想继续依靠这里的止损吗？
16:41 - 16:47
EN: I think most swing traders would not risk this much to make this little profit.
ZH: 我认为大多数波段交易者不会为了剩余的这一点点利润 去冒这么大的风险
16:47 - 16:49
EN: However, it’s reasonable to do.
ZH: 然而，这样做也是合理的
16:49 - 16:53
EN: Instead, they would exit here, wait for a couple legs down,
ZH: 更好的做法是，他们会在这里离场，等待几段下跌，
16:53 - 16:55
EN: and then buy again above a bull bar here,
ZH: 然后在这里的阳线上方再次买入
16:55 - 17:00
EN: looking for a test of this high or the market reaching the target.
ZH: 预期市场测试这个高点，或者达到MM目标位
17:05 - 17:09
EN: When the probability is high like this, 60% or more,
ZH: 当概率像这样有60%甚至更高的时候，
17:10 - 17:14
EN: traders do not need a reward equal to two times their risk
ZH: 交易者不需要利润等于两倍的风险，
17:14 - 17:17
EN: to make a positive Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 也可以让数学期望为正
17:17 - 17:20
EN: All they need is a reward equal to their risk.
ZH: 只需要利润等于风险就足够了
17:27 - 17:32
EN: The trader who bought here, even though he’s exiting
ZH: 在这里买入的交易者，即使在一倍止损距离离场
17:31 - 17:35
EN: with a reward one times his initial risk, if he put his stop here,
ZH: 在这里买入的交易者，即使在一倍止损距离离场 ——如果他把止损放在这里的话——
17:36 - 17:38
EN: he intended to hold for many bars.
ZH: 他计划持有很多根K线
17:38 - 17:41
EN: He intended to hold through minor reversals.
ZH: 他计划在小反转中坚定持有
17:41 - 17:46
EN: He did here, here, here, here, and he either got out here
ZH: 他在这里，这里，这里，这里都继续持有， 然后要么在这里离场，
17:46 - 17:47
EN: or he held all the way here.
ZH: 要么一直持仓到这里
17:49 - 17:52
EN: He was planning to manage the trade as a swing trade.
ZH: 他计划像波段交易一样去管理
17:52 - 18:01
EN: He did manage it as a swing trade, and therefore it is a swing trade,
ZH: 他也确实做到了，所以尽管利润没有达到两倍初始风险， 这仍然是一笔波段交易
17:56 - 18:01
EN: even though the market did not reach a reward equal to two times his initial risk.
ZH: 他也确实做到了，所以尽管利润没有达到两倍初始风险， 这仍然是一笔波段交易
18:01 - 18:04
EN: His actual risk was below the low of this bar.
ZH: 他的实际风险在这根K线的低点下方
18:04 - 18:09
EN: If he bought here, the market turned down to here and went all the way up there,
ZH: 如果他在这里买入，市场跌到这里然后一路上涨到那里
18:09 - 18:14
EN: the most he needed to stay in the trade, in hindsight, was a stop right here.
ZH: 事后看来，他只需要把止损放在这里就不会被打到
18:14 - 18:19
EN: So he actually only risked from his entry price to just below the low of this bar,
ZH: 所以实际上，他所承担的风险只是从入场价到这根K线的低点
18:19 - 18:23
EN: and this reward – I don’t know if it’s twice actual risk.
ZH: 而利润——我不知道是否达到了实际风险的两倍
18:23 - 18:26
EN: Here’s his entry price, here’s his actual risk.
ZH: 这是他的入场价，这里是实际风险
18:26 - 18:30
EN: It’s not quite twice his actual risk, but it doesn’t matter.
ZH: 应该没有达到两倍，但也没关系
18:30 - 18:33
EN: Traders would still call this a swing
ZH: 这仍然是一笔波段交易，
18:33 - 18:38
EN: because he held for a lot of bars and he held through several minor reversals.
ZH: 因为他持有了很多根K线，并经历了好几次小反转
18:41 - 18:48
EN: Again, actual risk is just below the low
ZH: 再讲一遍，入场之后，到回调的最低点， 就是他的实际风险
18:44 - 18:48
EN: of the deepest pullback after he entered the trade.
ZH: 再讲一遍，入场之后，到回调的最低点， 就是他的实际风险
Slide 007
Time: 18:50
Bilingual Transcript
18:54 - 18:58
EN: The bears tried to get a reversal, but it’s a Higher Low
ZH: 空头尝试反转，但低点仍然在抬高
18:58 - 19:01
EN: and it’s a breakout test of this high.
ZH: 而且它是对这个高点的突破回测
19:02 - 19:05
EN: The bears have a bear reversal and a follow-through bar,
ZH: 大阴线反转下跌，有跟随的阴线，
19:05 - 19:06
EN: but bad follow-through here,
ZH: 但这里的跟随不好
19:06 - 19:10
EN: and now there’s a Micro Double Bottom with another bull bar.
ZH: 现在有一个小双底，又有一根阳线
19:11 - 19:14
EN: This is a reasonable buy for a swing trader,
ZH: 这对波段交易者来说是一个合理的买入机会
19:14 - 19:18
EN: betting that the bear reversal will fail and that the bull trend will resume.
ZH: 押注空头的反转会失败，上涨趋势会继续
19:19 - 19:24
EN: However, this is a strong enough reversal down with bear follow-through
ZH: 然而，这个反转下跌足够强势，有阴线跟随，
19:24 - 19:30
EN: and a reasonable top – maybe a Wedge, one, two, three – maybe a Final Flag.
ZH: 而且有可能是顶部——楔形顶——1，2，3； 并且它是潜在的末端牛旗
19:30 - 19:35
EN: And then an exhaustive Buy Climax, trapped bulls who bought above that bull bar
ZH: 然后是竭尽型的抢购高潮，把那里追涨的多头都套牢了
19:35 - 19:39
EN: the probability of this trade is much less than the probability here.
ZH: 这笔交易的胜率比这里要低得多
19:40 - 19:44
EN: This has a much higher risk of the bull trend no longer being in effect.
ZH: 在这里，上涨趋势不再有效的风险要高得多
19:44 - 19:46
EN: The market might now be in a Trading Range.
ZH: 市场现在可能处于震荡区间
19:46 - 19:49
EN: We might get Leg 1, pullback, Leg 2.
ZH: 可能会变成1，反弹，2
19:49 - 19:54
EN: It might also be in a bear trend – bear spike, pullback, and channel.
ZH: 这也可能变成下降趋势——急速下跌、反弹、通道
19:54 - 19:57
EN: The probability here is less than the probability there.
ZH: 这里（做多）的胜率比那里要低
19:58 - 20:01
EN: You’re also buying at the top of a Tight Trading Range,
ZH: 同时，你买在一个窄震荡区间的上沿
20:01 - 20:03
EN: and breakouts tend to fail.
ZH: 而突破往往会失败
20:03 - 20:12
EN: So again, the probability is lower buying here – yet if you do buy here,
ZH: 所以，再次强调，在这里买入的胜率较低—— 然而，如果你在这里买入，你希望这个双底能成立，
20:09 - 20:12
EN: you’re hoping that the Double Bottom holds,
ZH: 所以，再次强调，在这里买入的胜率较低—— 然而，如果你在这里买入，你希望这个双底能成立，
20:12 - 20:14
EN: that the market does not fall below the Double Bottom.
ZH: 希望市场不会跌破双底
20:14 - 20:17
EN: It’s reasonable to place a stop below the Double Bottom.
ZH: 所以把止损放在双底下方是合理的
20:18 - 20:25
EN: Because it’s a lower probability trade, a trader needs
ZH: 因为这是一笔低胜率的交易， 所以需要良好的盈亏比来弥补
20:22 - 20:25
EN: to compensate with good risk/reward.
ZH: 因为这是一笔低胜率的交易， 所以需要良好的盈亏比来弥补
20:25 - 20:30
EN: So a trader buying here with a stop here has to be planning to exit
ZH: 所以在这里买入，然后把止损放在这里的多头，
20:30 - 20:34
EN: with a reward that is at least twice as big as his risk.
ZH: 利润的目标必须至少是风险的两倍
20:37 - 20:40
EN: He buys above this bear bar or above that bull bar.
ZH: 他在这个阴线或那个阳线上方买入
20:40 - 20:42
EN: Let’s say he buys above this bear bar.
ZH: 假设他在这个阴线上方买入
20:42 - 20:44
EN: He gets filled right here.
ZH: 他（的突破买单）在这里成交
20:44 - 20:46
EN: His initial stop is here.
ZH: 他的初始止损在这里
20:47 - 20:53
EN: This is one times his risk, and this is two times his risk
ZH: 这是一倍风险，这是两倍风险——合理的止盈位置
20:51 - 20:53
EN: - a reasonable location to take profits,
ZH: 这是一倍风险，这是两倍风险——合理的止盈位置
20:53 - 20:57
EN: especially since it’s near the top of a possible developing Trading Range.
ZH: 尤其是因为市场已经接近潜在的震荡区间的顶部
20:58 - 21:05
EN: Low probability trade, traders should go for a reward
ZH: 胜率较低，所以交易者至少应该追求两倍于风险的利润
21:02 - 21:05
EN: that is at least twice as big as their risk.
ZH: 胜率较低，所以交易者至少应该追求两倍于风险的利润
21:05 - 21:10
EN: They need a good risk/reward ratio to offset the low probability.
ZH: 他们需要一个良好的盈亏比来弥补胜率的不足
21:10 - 21:17
EN: Without that, you are not structuring a profitable trade – in other words,
ZH: 不然的话，就无法构建一笔盈利的交易—— 换句话说，数学期望不是正的，
21:15 - 21:17
EN: the Trader’s Equation is not positive,
ZH: 不然的话，就无法构建一笔盈利的交易—— 换句话说，数学期望不是正的，
21:17 - 21:19
EN: and therefore you are not likely to make a profit.
ZH: 因此你不太可能盈利
21:24 - 21:29
EN: I have general guidelines that I use when I define what a swing trade is.
ZH: 我有一些定义波段交易基本原则
Slide 008
Time: 21:25
Bilingual Transcript
21:29 - 21:32
EN: For example, on the Emini if I’m swing trading,
ZH: 例如，在标普股指期货上，如果我在做波段交易，
21:32 - 21:36
EN: I’m going for a reward that is at least 4 points.
ZH: 我的利润目标至少是4个点 （注：这是2018年，当时标普只有2000点不到）
21:36 - 21:42
EN: If I’m trading the Forex markets, I’m going for a reward that is at least 40 pips.
ZH: 如果我在交易外汇，我的利润目标至少是40点
21:42 - 21:45
EN: If I’m trading stocks and it’s a $100 stock,
ZH: 如果我在交易股票，假设股价是$100
21:45 - 21:49
EN: my minimum goal for a swing trade is at least 50 cents.
ZH: 我波段交易的最低目标至少是50美分 （注：0.5%）
21:54 - 21:58
EN: When a swing trader takes a trade, he’s hoping for a trend.
ZH: 波段交易者在交易的时候，他希望有一个趋势
21:58 - 22:04
EN: And remember, a trend is a swing that covers at least half the bars on the swing.
ZH: 而趋势是大的波段，至少占据屏幕的一半
22:04 - 22:08
EN: The minimum goal is two legs and 10 bars,
ZH: 最低目标是两段、10根K线
22:08 - 22:12
EN: but most swing traders are expecting at least 20 bars,
ZH: 但大多数波段交易者期望至少有20根K线
22:12 - 22:15
EN: and that is about 2 hours on a 5-minute chart.
ZH: 在5分钟图上，这大约是两个小时
22:18 - 22:21
EN: Also, the reward should be at least twice as big as the risk.
ZH: 此外，利润应该至少是风险的两倍
22:21 - 22:23
EN: It often is many times bigger.
ZH: 经常远远不止两倍
22:30 - 22:37
EN: It’s common for traders to take a trade and they’re not sure
ZH: 很多时候交易者在开仓的时候，并不确定到底是 一笔大的剥头皮，还是一笔小的波段
22:34 - 22:37
EN: if the profit will be a big scalp or a small swing.
ZH: 很多时候交易者在开仓的时候，并不确定到底是 一笔大的剥头皮，还是一笔小的波段
22:38 - 22:43
EN: Most traders should only be taking trades
ZH: 对于大部分交易者来说， 应该只在他们认为是波段交易机会的时候才开仓
22:40 - 22:43
EN: if they feel like they can take it for a swing trade.
ZH: 对于大部分交易者来说， 应该只在他们认为是波段交易机会的时候才开仓
22:47 - 22:49
EN: These are all reasonable swing entries.
ZH: 这些都是合理的波段交易入场点
22:49 - 22:55
EN: We have a 2-bar bull breakout closing on its high after a series
ZH: 一系列阳线之后，有两根收在最高的大阳线突破， 在这里买入是合理的
22:52 - 22:55
EN: of other bull bars – reasonable to buy here.
ZH: 一系列阳线之后，有两根收在最高的大阳线突破， 在这里买入是合理的
22:55 - 22:57
EN: Buy the close, reasonable to buy here.
ZH: 它的收盘，也是合理的买点
22:57 - 23:00
EN: High 1 buy, High 2 buy, reasonable to buy.
ZH: 高1，高2，都是合理的买点
23:00 - 23:04
EN: A more complex High 2 – High 1, pullback, High 2.
ZH: 一个更复杂的高2结构——高1，反弹，高2
23:04 - 23:09
EN: All are reasonable swing trades, and it’s reasonable to use the same stop,
ZH: 这些都是合理的波段交易入场点， 并且止损都是相同的
23:09 - 23:13
EN: either below the bottom of this Buy Climax or the bottom of the bull trend.
ZH: 要么在这个抢购高潮的起点下方， 要么在上涨趋势的起点下方
23:14 - 23:19
EN: The minimum reward for any one of those entries
ZH: 利润的最小目标就是从入场点到止损距离的一倍 （注：即一倍盈亏比）
23:17 - 23:19
EN: is based upon the distance to the stop.
ZH: 利润的最小目标就是从入场点到止损距离的一倍 （注：即一倍盈亏比）
23:22 - 23:26
EN: For example, you could buy here, stop down here,
ZH: 例如，如果你在这里买入，止损在这里，
Slide 009
Time: 23:25
Bilingual Transcript
23:26 - 23:28
EN: betting on a Buy The Close bull trend.
ZH: 押注这是“买收盘”的上涨趋势
23:30 - 23:34
EN: If you buy here, stop here, one times risk is right here.
ZH: 如果你在这里买入，止损在这里，一倍距离就在这里
23:34 - 23:38
EN: It’s reasonable to exit here because you’re taking a high probability trade.
ZH: 在这里离场是合理的，因为你做的是高胜率交易
23:38 - 23:43
EN: If you’re going for a swing instead, two times risk is up here,
ZH: 如果你想要做波段交易，两倍止损距离在这里
23:43 - 23:45
EN: and you can see there was some profit-taking here.
ZH: 你可以看到这里有一些止盈
23:46 - 23:48
EN: This is where scalpers would get out;
ZH: 这是剥头皮交易者会离场的地方
23:48 - 23:52
EN: this is where swing traders would at least take partial profits.
ZH: 而这里是波段交易者至少会止盈一部分的地方
Slide 010
Time: 23:55
Bilingual Transcript
23:57 - 24:02
EN: A scalp means that you’re going for a reward that is less than twice your risk.
ZH: 剥头皮交易意味着你追求的利润小于两倍风险
24:02 - 24:06
EN: Most scalpers take profits within 1 to 5 bars,
ZH: 大多数剥头皮交易者在1到5根K线内止盈
24:06 - 24:10
EN: and they prefer that the market not pull back, not reverse.
ZH: 并且他们不喜欢看到市场回调、反转
24:13 - 24:17
EN: For example, a trader might sell
ZH: 例如，他可能会在这个阴线的低点下方卖出做空， 然后很快就止盈离场
24:14 - 24:17
EN: below the low of this bear bar and then scalp out.
ZH: 例如，他可能会在这个阴线的低点下方卖出做空， 然后很快就止盈离场
24:17 - 24:21
EN: A trader might buy above this bull inside bar, betting on a little bit more up.
ZH: 可能会在这个多头孕线的上方买入，押注会继续上涨
24:21 - 24:23
EN: A trader might buy this close.
ZH: 可能会在它的收盘买入
24:23 - 24:24
EN: A trader might buy here.
ZH: 可能会在这里买入
24:24 - 24:31
EN: A trader might buy below that doji bar, betting after 5 bars up,
ZH: 可能会在那个十字星的下方买入， 押注连续上涨5根K线之后，下方会有买盘
24:29 - 24:31
EN: there’ll be buyers below.
ZH: 可能会在那个十字星的下方买入， 押注连续上涨5根K线之后，下方会有买盘
24:31 - 24:40
EN: Here we have a bull ii and a bull trend, so a trader might buy above
ZH: 上涨趋势中的多头的ii结构， 所以他可能在那个小阳线上方买入， 也可能会在阳线突破之后跟随K线的收盘买入
24:35 - 24:40
EN: that small bull bar, and they might buy this close after a bull breakout bar.
ZH: 所以他可能在那个小阳线上方买入， 也可能会在阳线突破之后跟随K线的收盘买入
24:41 - 24:44
EN: You could buy below this bear bar.
ZH: 你也可以在这个阴线的下方买入
24:45 - 24:47
EN: Even though it’s three pushes up – one, two, three
ZH: 尽管这是3推——1，2，3
24:47 - 24:51
EN: it’s about a 15 bar or a 10-bar bull Micro Channel.
ZH: 左边是持续了10~15根K线的上涨微通道
24:51 - 24:57
EN: The odds are the first reversal down will fail and will become a bull flag.
ZH: 第1次反转下跌大概率会失败、变成牛旗
24:57 - 24:59
EN: Or you can buy above this inside bar.
ZH: 或者你可以在这个孕线的上方买入
24:59 - 25:06
EN: It’s a small High 2 – High 1, High 2 – or you could also call it
ZH: 这是一个小的高2——高1，高2； 或者你也可以说它是楔形牛旗，押注趋势恢复上涨
25:04 - 25:06
EN: a Wedge bull flag for trend resumption up.
ZH: 这是一个小的高2——高1，高2； 或者你也可以说它是楔形牛旗，押注趋势恢复上涨
25:07 - 25:10
EN: And we have a strong bear breakout and strong bear follow-through.
ZH: 强势的大阴线突破，并且有跟随
25:10 - 25:13
EN: Probably you’ll get at least a small second leg down.
ZH: 大概率至少会有小的第2段下跌
25:13 - 25:17
EN: A scalper will sell the high of this bear bar and get filled right here.
ZH: 剥头皮交易者会在这个阴线的高点挂限价卖单， 在这里成交
25:21 - 25:23
EN: This looks pretty easy to do, but it’s really not,
ZH: 看起来很容易，实际上并不是这样，
25:23 - 25:26
EN: and beginners should not be scalping.
ZH: 新手不应该做剥头皮交易
25:26 - 25:30
EN: And most experienced traders prefer not to scalp because it’s hard to do,
ZH: 大多数有经验的交易者也不喜欢做剥头皮交易， 一是因为很难
25:30 - 25:33
EN: and it doesn’t suit their personality.
ZH: 二是不适合他们的性格
25:39 - 25:46
EN: Any scalp is a reasonable swing trade, and all of these are reasonable scalps,
ZH: 任何剥头皮交易的机会都是合理的波段交易机会， 这些都是合理的剥头皮交易，
25:46 - 25:48
EN: and they’re also reasonable swing trades.
ZH: 也都是合理的波段交易机会
25:49 - 25:53
EN: Even selling here is a reasonable swing trade, although it turned into a loser.
ZH: 在这里做空也是合理的波段交易， 尽管最终是亏损的
25:54 - 26:00
EN: If you are scalping, it’s easier to make money
ZH: 做剥头皮交易的时候，采用波段交易的止损（宽止损） 并且加仓，胜率会更高（注：但风险更大）
25:58 - 26:00
EN: if you can use a swing stop and scale in.
ZH: 做剥头皮交易的时候，采用波段交易的止损（宽止损） 并且加仓，胜率会更高（注：但风险更大）
26:00 - 26:04
EN: For example, if you’re scalping and let’s say you bought here,
ZH: 例如，如果你在做剥头皮交易， 并且假设你在这里买入，
26:04 - 26:08
EN: it’s better if you’re able to use a stop down here or down here
ZH: 如果你把止损放在这里或者这里会更好，
26:08 - 26:12
EN: and then buy more lower – for example, the size of a scalp lower
ZH: 然后逢低买入更多——比如在1或2倍剥头皮距离的地方买入，
26:12 - 26:15
EN: or the size of two scalps lower, or on the reversal up,
ZH: 或者在反转上涨的时候买入，
26:15 - 26:20
EN: as long as this entry is at least as big as a scalp below your first entry.
ZH: 只要加仓的地方比初始入场价格至少低1笔剥头皮交易的距离
26:21 - 26:27
EN: The traders who do buy here and buy more here will often try
ZH: 那些在这里买入，并在这里加仓的交易者， 通常会在初始入场价格附近离场，
26:25 - 26:27
EN: to get out breakeven around their first entry
ZH: 那些在这里买入，并在这里加仓的交易者， 通常会在初始入场价格附近离场，
26:27 - 26:29
EN: and then with a scalp on their second entry.
ZH: 第1笔打平、第2笔小赚
26:30 - 26:32
EN: Therefore, they want that second entry
ZH: 因此，他们希望第2次入场的价格
26:32 - 26:35
EN: to be at least the size of a scalp below their first.
ZH: 至少距离初始入场价格有一笔剥头皮交易的距离
26:37 - 26:41
EN: If you are a scalper and you’re using a wide stop and you’re scaling in lower,
ZH: 如果你是一个剥头皮交易者，并且你使用宽止损， 然后逢低加仓，
26:41 - 26:45
EN: it increases your probability of success, but it also increases your risk.
ZH: 这会提高你的胜率，但也会增加风险
26:46 - 26:50
EN: You therefore have to be trading a very small position, at least initially,
ZH: 因此，你的初始仓位必须非常小，
26:50 - 26:55
EN: and you have to have the temperament
ZH: 而且当价格反向运行时你必须足够坚定
26:52 - 26:55
EN: that allows you to have a trade go against you.
ZH: 而且当价格反向运行时你必须足够坚定
26:55 - 27:02
EN: For example, if you buy here, are you able to hold long when the market
ZH: 例如，如果你在这里买入，当市场这样下跌时， 你是否能够依靠这里的止损，然后坚定持有？
26:59 - 27:02
EN: is doing this, relying on your stop here or here?
ZH: 例如，如果你在这里买入，当市场这样下跌时， 你是否能够依靠这里的止损，然后坚定持有？
27:02 - 27:07
EN: If you’re not, if it causes too much stress, you cannot be doing that long-term.
ZH: 如果不能，如果它让你感到压力山大， 你就无法长期这样做
27:07 - 27:10
EN: That’s not a career type of trade for you,
ZH: 这就不是一个适合你的职业
27:10 - 27:14
EN: and therefore you should not be taking that trade – at least not for a scalp.
ZH: 因此你不应该进行那种交易——不应该做剥头皮交易
27:14 - 27:18
EN: A swing trader would be much more comfortable buying here
ZH: 波段交易者在这里买入，把止损放在这里或这里，
27:17 - 27:23
EN: and putting a stop here or here, trusting that the odds
ZH: 波段交易者在这里买入，把止损放在这里或这里， 相信大概率会有第2段上涨，这是更加舒服的做法
27:20 - 27:23
EN: are the market’s going to have a second leg up.
ZH: 相信大概率会有第2段上涨，这是更加舒服的做法
27:23 - 27:26
EN: A scalper, on the other hand, is going for a very small profit,
ZH: 而剥头皮交易者，追求的是非常小的利润，
27:26 - 27:31
EN: and he’s very concerned about a risk that becomes greater than his reward.
ZH: 并且非常担心风险超过利润
27:31 - 27:33
EN: If you’re unable to trade that comfortably,
ZH: 如果你无法轻松地交易，
27:33 - 27:37
EN: if you have too much stress, you cannot be doing that type of trade.
ZH: 如果压力太大，你就不能这么做
27:37 - 27:44
EN: And that is one of the main reasons why most traders
ZH: 这是大多数交易者不应该将剥头皮交易作为主要收入来源的原因之一
27:40 - 27:44
EN: should not be scalping as their primary source of income.
ZH: 这是大多数交易者不应该将剥头皮交易作为主要收入来源的原因之一
27:44 - 27:45
EN: It’s just too hard to do emotionally.
ZH: 情感上非常反人性
27:45 - 27:47
EN: It’s not fun for most traders.
ZH: 对大多数交易者来说，这没有乐趣
27:47 - 27:48
EN: Most traders do not like to do it.
ZH: 大多数交易者不喜欢这么做
27:48 - 27:50
EN: It’s too stressful.
ZH: 压力太大了
Slide 011
Time: 27:53
Bilingual Transcript
27:55 - 27:59
EN: When the market’s clearly Always In Long – and it is, all the way up here
ZH: 当市场明显处于单边上涨时——直到这里
27:59 - 28:02
EN: - a swing trader can buy at any time and for any reason.
ZH: 波段交易者可以在任何时间、以任何理由买入
28:02 - 28:06
EN: However, he has to use the correct stop, and the correct stop
ZH: 然而，他必须使用正确的止损位，
28:06 - 28:09
EN: is always below the bottom of the most recent strong leg up
ZH: 而正确的止损位总是位于最近一段强势上涨的起点下方
28:09 - 28:11
EN: (in other words, the most recent Higher Low).
ZH: （换句话说，就是最近一个重要低点）
28:14 - 28:15
EN: Here we have a Higher Low.
ZH: 这里有一个重要低点
28:15 - 28:19
EN: Not yet a major Higher Low, but after you start to get a strong rally,
ZH: 此时它还不是一个重要的低点，但在强势上涨之后，
28:19 - 28:23
EN: especially a rally to a new high, this becomes a major Higher Low.
ZH: 尤其是强势上涨创新高之后， 它就变成了一个重要的低点
28:23 - 28:26
EN: No matter where you bought and for whatever reason you bought,
ZH: 无论你在哪里买入，也无论你因为什么理由买入
28:26 - 28:30
EN: once the market is up here, traders will put their stop here.
ZH: 一旦市场涨到这里，交易者就会把止损放在这里
28:31 - 28:34
EN: If it was here or here initially, they’ll trail it.
ZH: 如果初始止损在这里或这里，他们会移动止损
28:34 - 28:35
EN: They’ll move it up to here.
ZH: 他们会把止损位移到这里
28:35 - 28:37
EN: And the same here.
ZH: 这里也是同样地情况
28:37 - 28:40
EN: No matter what reason you use to buy all through here,
ZH: 无论你在这里买入的理由是什么
28:40 - 28:45
EN: once you have a strong breakout, traders will see this as a major Higher Low,
ZH: 一旦价格强势突破，交易者就会把它看作一个重要的低点
28:45 - 28:47
EN: and they’ll move their stop here.
ZH: 然后会把止损移动到这里
28:47 - 28:50
EN: If you’re buying anywhere in here, once the market is here,
ZH: 如果你在前期任何地方买入，一旦市场涨到这里，
28:50 - 28:53
EN: traders are going to tighten their stop to either here,
ZH: 交易者就会把止损移动上来，
28:53 - 28:58
EN: the bottom of the most recent breakout, or the bottom of the most recent leg up.
ZH: 到最近一次突破的起点，或者到最近一段上涨的起点
29:01 - 29:06
EN: Swing traders are going for a reward that is at least twice
ZH: 波段交易者的利润目标是至少是风险的两倍， 而且他们能够顶住回调
29:04 - 29:06
EN: as big as their risk, and they allow pullbacks.
ZH: 波段交易者的利润目标是至少是风险的两倍， 而且他们能够顶住回调
29:06 - 29:10
EN: For example, if you buy here, the market pulls back further
ZH: 例如，如果你在这里买入，市场进一步回调，
29:10 - 29:12
EN: - you’re still holding onto your position.
ZH: 你仍然坚定持有
29:12 - 29:16
EN: Even though this is a pretty good bull bar and the market fell below it,
ZH: 即使这个非常好的阳线被跌破了，
29:16 - 29:20
EN: swing traders will still hold long because their stop is probably down here.
ZH: 波段交易者仍然会继续持有， 因为他们的止损在这里
29:21 - 29:26
EN: They allow pullbacks, and they expect to hold onto the trade for at least 10 bars.
ZH: 他们允许回调，并且准备持有至少10根K线
29:26 - 29:34
EN: Most swings last at least 20 bars, and therefore swing traders
ZH: 大多数波段至少持续20根K线， 因此波段交易者愿意持有很长时间、经历许多回调
29:31 - 29:34
EN: are willing to hold for a long time, through a lot of pullbacks.
ZH: 大多数波段至少持续20根K线， 因此波段交易者愿意持有很长时间、经历许多回调
29:34 - 29:37
EN: If you’re holding onto a trade that’s going to last 20 or 30 bars,
ZH: 如果你在一笔交易中持有20或30根K线，
29:37 - 29:42
EN: you’re going to have pullbacks, and some of them
ZH: 一定会经历回调， 其中一些会相当大——比如像这里
29:39 - 29:42
EN: are going to be pretty big – for example, like this.
ZH: 一定会经历回调， 其中一些会相当大——比如像这里
29:45 - 29:49
EN: After every strong breakout to a new high, traders tighten their stops.
ZH: 每次强势突破创新高后，交易者都会抬高止损
29:50 - 29:53
EN: The market goes up here, you raise the stop to here.
ZH: 市场涨到这里，你把止损抬高到这里
29:53 - 29:55
EN: Whether it was here or here, you raise it to here.
ZH: 无论之前是在这里还是这里，你都把止损抬高到这里
29:56 - 29:58
EN: Now we have a strong breakout here.
ZH: 现在价格强势突破到这里
29:58 - 30:00
EN: The stop is now here or here.
ZH: 止损现在在这里或这里
30:00 - 30:02
EN: That’s called trailing your stop.
ZH: 这叫做追踪止损
30:07 - 30:13
EN: Scalpers can only take a trade if they believe the probability is 60% or greater,
ZH: 剥头皮交易者只有在认为胜率有60%或更高时才会交易
30:13 - 30:17
EN: and they want that probability to be 60% without scaling in.
ZH: 他们希望在不加仓的情况下，胜率有60%
30:17 - 30:21
EN: They’re willing to scale in, but when they take the trade initially,
ZH: 他们愿意加仓，但是在最初开仓的时候，
30:21 - 30:26
EN: they believe they’re taking a high probability trade
ZH: 他们认为这是高胜率的机会——至少有60%
30:23 - 30:26
EN: - a trade that has a probability of at least 60%.
ZH: 他们认为这是高胜率的机会——至少有60%
30:26 - 30:28
EN: These are reasonable trades.
ZH: 这些都是合理的交易
30:28 - 30:34
EN: Buying here, 60% chance the market is going
ZH: 在这里买入，市场有60%的概率会上涨， 利润至少等于风险
30:32 - 30:34
EN: to go up for a reward equal to the risk.
ZH: 在这里买入，市场有60%的概率会上涨， 利润至少等于风险
30:34 - 30:40
EN: Buying here, 60% chance it’s going to go up at least as big as the risk.
ZH: 在这里买入，有60%的概率上涨至少一倍风险的距离
30:41 - 30:45
EN: And when the probability is high, you can swing or scalp.
ZH: 当胜率很高的时候，你可以波段也可以剥头皮
30:45 - 30:48
EN: The probability is high for a scalp, not high for a swing.
ZH: 剥头皮的胜率高，但波段没那么高
30:49 - 30:53
EN: Buying here, it’s a high probability trade for a scalp,
ZH: 在这里买入，对于剥头皮交易而言胜率很高，
30:53 - 30:55
EN: not necessarily a high probability for a swing.
ZH: 但对波段交易来说，胜率不一定有那么高
30:55 - 30:57
EN: And that’s the same here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
30:57 - 31:01
EN: You know it’s a high probability that it’s going up for a scalp.
ZH: 你知道做多、剥头皮的胜率很高
31:01 - 31:04
EN: You hope that it’s going to go all the way up here.
ZH: 你希望它会一直涨到这里
31:04 - 31:07
EN: It’s only a 40% probability that you’re going to get a swing.
ZH: 但波段交易的概率只有40%
31:07 - 31:12
EN: Any entry is only a 40% probability of a swing trade,
ZH: 任何入场点，做波段交易的概率都只有40%
31:12 - 31:16
EN: but many entries are a 60% probability of a scalp trade.
ZH: 但许多入场点做剥头皮交易的胜率有60%
Slide 012
Time: 31:18
Bilingual Transcript
31:19 - 31:22
EN: Here’s an example on the 5-minute Emini chart.
ZH: 这是一个ES5分钟图的案例
31:26 - 31:31
EN: If your stop is 8 ticks away from your entry price, then your risk is 8 ticks.
ZH: 如果你的止损位距离入场价8 ticks， 那么你的风险就是8 ticks
31:33 - 31:37
EN: If the reward is 16 ticks or more (twice the size of the risk),
ZH: 如果利润是16 ticks或更多（是风险的两倍）
31:37 - 31:38
EN: I call that a swing trade.
ZH: 我就说它是波段交易
31:38 - 31:44
EN: If the reward, if the profit is less than 16 ticks, I call it a scalp.
ZH: 如果利润少于16个点，我就说它是剥头皮交易
31:46 - 31:49
EN: Here we have a Double Bottom and a bear trend.
ZH: 下降趋势，双底
31:49 - 31:52
EN: Pretty good buying here, buying here and here,
ZH: 这里，这里和这里，都是做多机会
31:52 - 31:54
EN: and you have a good buy signal bar.
ZH: 这里有非常不错的做多信号K线
31:54 - 31:58
EN: So let’s say a trader buys here, betting on either a scalp,
ZH: 假设一个交易者在这里买入，做剥头皮交易，
31:58 - 32:00
EN: betting on a Trading Range or a bear flag,
ZH: 押注价格反弹、进入震荡区间，
32:00 - 32:03
EN: or possibly even a bull trend, a reversal.
ZH: 甚至反转成为上涨趋势
32:05 - 32:09
EN: If he buys here, his stop is going to be below the buy signal bar,
ZH: 如果他在这里买入，止损放在做多信号K线的下方
32:09 - 32:13
EN: and in this particular case, it’s 10 ticks below his entry price.
ZH: 这里，他的止损距离是10 ticks
32:13 - 32:17
EN: He entered 1 tick above the high of that bull bar, and his stop is 1 tick below.
ZH: 他在那个阳线最高点上方1个tick买入， 止损放在最低点下方1个tick
32:21 - 32:26
EN: If he exits here, he has 10 ticks profit, and that’s one times his risk.
ZH: 如果他在这里离场，他有10 ticks的利润，是一倍风险
32:26 - 32:28
EN: That is a scalp.
ZH: 这就是剥头皮交易
32:28 - 32:29
EN: It’s a high probability trade.
ZH: 这是一笔高胜率的交易
32:29 - 32:31
EN: I think this is certainly good enough for a scalp,
ZH: 对于一笔剥头皮交易而言，这足够好，
32:31 - 32:34
EN: but it’s also a reasonable swing trade.
ZH: 但它同时也是一个合理的波段交易机会
32:35 - 32:39
EN: If he exits here, two times his risk, I would call it a swing trade –
ZH: 如果他在这里离场——两倍止损距离， 我就说它是波段交易
32:39 - 32:42
EN: and obviously if he exited below here or below here,
ZH: 显然，如果他在这里下方或这里下方离场
32:42 - 32:44
EN: that would also be a swing trade.
ZH: 那也是波段交易
32:45 - 32:49
EN: The minimum goal for a swing trader is at least twice his risk.
ZH: 波段交易者的最低目标是风险的两倍
32:49 - 32:54
EN: When he buys here, he has a 60% chance of the market going here,
ZH: 当他在这里买入时，市场有60%的概率会反弹到这里
32:54 - 32:57
EN: and maybe a 40% or 50% chance of it going here,
ZH: 而涨到这里的概率可能只有40%或50%
32:57 - 33:02
EN: and probably less than a 40% chance of it going all the way up here.
ZH: 而一直涨到这里的概率甚至不到40%
33:02 - 33:04
EN: If it does, this is three or four times his risk.
ZH: 如果真的涨那么多，这是他风险的3~4倍
33:04 - 33:08
EN: That is a great risk/reward ratio.
ZH: 那是一个很好的盈亏比
33:11 - 33:16
EN: So for example, if he exits here – a Wedge, one, two, three,
ZH: 例如，如果他在这里离场——楔形顶，1，2，3
33:16 - 33:20
EN: testing near the high – you have a bear bar, you have a second leg up,
ZH: 接近前期高点——阴线，出现在两段上涨之后，
33:20 - 33:24
EN: strong enough breakout here for at least a small second leg up,
ZH: 这个突破足够强势，至少有小的第2段上涨
33:24 - 33:25
EN: and now it’s reversing down.
ZH: 现在市场开始向下反转
33:25 - 33:28
EN: If he exits below this bear bar, he gets filled here.
ZH: 如果他在这个阴线下方离场，订单在这里成交
33:28 - 33:33
EN: This is 38 ticks profit, which is far more than twice his risk,
ZH: 利润总共是38 ticks，远远超过两倍风险 （注：风险是10 ticks，这里是接近4倍）
33:33 - 33:37
EN: and therefore buying here and exiting here is a swing trade,
ZH: 因此，在这里买入，在这里离场，这是波段交易
33:37 - 33:40
EN: just like exiting here is a swing trade as well.
ZH: 在这里离场也是波段交易
33:44 - 33:48
EN: This is a 5-minute chart of the British pound versus the dollar.
ZH: 这是英镑兑美元的5分钟K线图
Slide 013
Time: 33:45
Bilingual Transcript
33:52 - 33:56
EN: Most Forex traders don’t refer to trades as swings or scalps.
ZH: 大多数外汇交易者不会刻意区分波段和剥头皮
33:56 - 34:01
EN: They call everything a “trade.” I use the term swings and scalps.
ZH: 他们就用“交易”一词来描述所有的交易； 我用“波段”和“剥头皮”这两个词
34:04 - 34:09
EN: Traders who do refer to trades as scalps are trading on 60-minute charts
ZH: 外汇中，在60分钟或更小时间周期交易， 盈亏在10~50 pips之间，
34:09 - 34:13
EN: or smaller, and the scalp is between 10 and 50 pips.
ZH: 这样的交易被称作是剥头皮
34:13 - 34:17
EN: All other trades are simply “trades.” I usually distinguish swings
ZH: 其他所有的交易，就是“交易”而已； 我通常会区分波段和剥头皮，
34:17 - 34:21
EN: and scalps because I tend to think of them differently.
ZH: 因为我用不同的思维去看待它们
34:24 - 34:27
EN: We have a pair of bull bars breaking out.
ZH: 两根阳线突破
34:27 - 34:29
EN: We have a potential high in a Trading Range,
ZH: 之前这个可能是震荡区间，
34:29 - 34:33
EN: or maybe there was a bear trend here and maybe this is a bear flag.
ZH: 或者之前是下降趋势，这是熊旗（反弹）
34:33 - 34:36
EN: In either case, we’re getting a pretty good breakout, a pair of big bull bars.
ZH: 无论如何，这是一个非常好的突破，两根大阳线
34:36 - 34:38
EN: It’s reasonable to buy this close.
ZH: 在它的收盘买入做多是合理的
34:41 - 34:43
EN: It’s a high probability buy for a scalp,
ZH: 做多剥头皮的胜率很高，
34:43 - 34:45
EN: and it’s a reasonable buy for a swing trade.
ZH: 同时这也是一个合理的波段入场点
34:45 - 34:51
EN: Swing trade, with a breakout like this, maybe 50% chance
ZH: 像这样的突破，可能有50%的概率可以赚到两倍于风险的利润
34:49 - 34:54
EN: you’ll get twice your risk, and maybe 40% chance
ZH: 像这样的突破，可能有50%的概率可以赚到两倍于风险的利润 有40%的概率利润可以超过2倍风险
34:52 - 34:54
EN: you’ll get more than twice your risk.
ZH: 有40%的概率利润可以超过2倍风险
34:55 - 34:58
EN: If a trader exits here, he has 40 pips profit.
ZH: 如果一个交易者在这里离场，他赚到了40 pips
34:58 - 35:01
EN: Is it a scalp or is it a swing?
ZH: 这是剥头皮还是波段？
35:01 - 35:03
EN: If you’re exiting here, I’d probably call it a scalp.
ZH: 如果你在这里离场，我会说它是剥头皮交易
35:03 - 35:10
EN: You’re exiting without any pullback, and you’re exiting maybe
ZH: 在你的持仓过程中没有经历任何的回调， 利润小于两倍风险
35:07 - 35:10
EN: around twice your risk, maybe less than twice your risk.
ZH: 在你的持仓过程中没有经历任何的回调， 利润小于两倍风险
35:12 - 35:17
EN: If a trader exits here, he has 80 pips profit, which is clearly far more
ZH: 如果交易者在这里离场，他赚到了80 pips
35:17 - 35:20
EN: than twice his risk, if his stop was here or here,
ZH: 这显然远远超过两倍风险—— 如果他的止损在这里或这里；
35:20 - 35:23
EN: and he sat through a pullback
ZH: 而且他经历了一次回调
35:23 - 35:26
EN: - another pullback attempt – and he has two legs up.
ZH: ——这里也是一次回调——总共是两段上涨
35:26 - 35:30
EN: Minimum goal for a swing trade is 10 bars and two legs.
ZH: 波段交易的最低目标是10根K线、两段上涨
35:30 - 35:33
EN: If you buy here, you have one leg, pullback, two leg,
ZH: 如果你在这里买入，这是1，回调，2
35:33 - 35:37
EN: and you have more than 10 bars, and you have more than 50 pips profit.
ZH: 持仓超过10根K线，而且利润大于50 pips
35:38 - 35:41
EN: All of those things are enough for me to call that a swing trade.
ZH: 所有这些因素足以让我判定这是波段交易
Slide 014
Time: 35:45
Bilingual Transcript
35:47 - 35:50
EN: Scalpers and swing traders are trying to do different things.
ZH: 剥头皮交易者和波段交易者做的是不同的事情
35:50 - 35:55
EN: Scalpers want high probability, and swing traders want big reward.
ZH: 剥头皮交易者想要高胜率， 而波段交易者想要大利润
35:55 - 35:59
EN: That means they’re looking for certain setups that are different from one another.
ZH: 也就是说他们采用的是不同的策略和方法
35:59 - 36:03
EN: Swing traders want big trends; scalpers want pullbacks.
ZH: 波段交易者想要大趋势的机会； 而剥头皮交易者想要回调的机会
Slide 015
Time: 36:05
Bilingual Transcript
36:08 - 36:09
EN: On the left I have a bull trend.
ZH: 左边的图是上涨趋势
36:09 - 36:11
EN: It’s a 5-minute chart of the Emini.
ZH: 这是ES的5分钟K线图
36:11 - 36:15
EN: On the right I have a daily chart of the euro versus the dollar,
ZH: 右边是欧元兑美元的日K线图
36:15 - 36:17
EN: and it’s a strong bear trend.
ZH: 这是一个强下降趋势
36:17 - 36:19
EN: There are a lot of similarities between the two,
ZH: 两者之间有很多相似之处
36:19 - 36:22
EN: and that’s because they are the same type of trend
ZH: 因为它们是同一种类型的趋势
36:22 - 36:25
EN: - a bull version and a bear version.
ZH: ——只不过一个是涨，一个是跌
36:25 - 36:27
EN: Lots of dojis, lots of overlap.
ZH: 很多十字星，很多重叠
36:27 - 36:29
EN: The pullbacks are small.
ZH: 反弹幅度都很小
36:29 - 36:31
EN: It’s a Small Pullback Bear Trend.
ZH: 这是一个几乎没什么反弹的下降趋势
36:31 - 36:32
EN: The same here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
36:32 - 36:36
EN: It never looks like it’s going to go a long way.
ZH: 看上去完全不像要大涨的样子
36:36 - 36:40
EN: We have lots of overlap here, we have lots of sideways here.
ZH: 这里有很多重叠，这里有很多横盘
36:40 - 36:42
EN: The bars overlap a lot.
ZH: 很多K线重叠
36:42 - 36:47
EN: There’s a lack of consecutive big bull bars, a lack of consecutive big bear bars.
ZH: （左图）没有连续的大阳线， 而右图没有连续的大阴线
36:47 - 36:51
EN: Therefore, the trend looks like it’ll be a bull leg in a Trading Range,
ZH: 因此，这个趋势看上去像是震荡区间中的一个上涨波段
36:51 - 36:54
EN: yet it goes for many, many bars.
ZH: 然而它持续了很多很多K线
36:54 - 36:58
EN: This looks like a bear leg in what is trying to become a Trading Range,
ZH: 这看起来像是震荡区间中的一个下跌波段
36:58 - 37:00
EN: yet it goes a long, long way.
ZH: 但它跌了很多很多
37:01 - 37:05
EN: Because it looks like a leg in a developing Trading Range,
ZH: 因为这个上涨波段看起来像是会变成震荡区间，
37:05 - 37:08
EN: the probability of it going far is small.
ZH: 所以大涨的概率不高
37:08 - 37:11
EN: However, you can see the reward is huge.
ZH: 然而，你可以看到，利润是巨大的
37:11 - 37:17
EN: Therefore, huge risk/reward, great risk/reward but low probability.
ZH: 因此，盈亏比非常好，但是发生的概率低
37:17 - 37:22
EN: It always looks like it’s going to reverse or enter a Trading Range,
ZH: 看起来总是要被反转，或者变成震荡区间， 然而趋势总在继续
37:20 - 37:22
EN: yet it continues to trend.
ZH: 看起来总是要被反转，或者变成震荡区间， 然而趋势总在继续
37:28 - 37:33
EN: Charts look like this for perhaps 10% of the bars on any screen.
ZH: 在任何K线图上，只有大约10%的K线看起来是这样的
37:33 - 37:35
EN: The same with here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
37:36 - 37:40
EN: Small pullback trends, about 10% of the time you’ll see them,
ZH: 反弹/回调很小的趋势，大约10%的时间会出现
37:40 - 37:42
EN: and they’re great for swing traders.
ZH: 对波段交易者来说，它们是极好的机会
37:42 - 37:45
EN: Scalpers – some scalpers absolutely hate them.
ZH: 而有些剥头皮交易者非常讨厌这种行情
37:45 - 37:46
EN: I don’t mind them.
ZH: 我个人并不介意（这种行情）
37:46 - 37:50
EN: I don’t make as much money in a small pullback trend if I’m scalping
ZH: 在回调很小的上涨趋势里，如果我做剥头皮交易，
37:50 - 37:54
EN: than I do if I’m swing trading, but I don’t hate anything.
ZH: 我赚的钱肯定没有做波段那么多， 但是我不讨厌任何行情
37:54 - 37:55
EN: I like everything.
ZH: 我喜欢一切行情
37:55 - 37:56
EN: I think everything is interesting.
ZH: 我认为一切都很有趣
37:57 - 38:01
EN: Swing traders in general are looking for stop entries
ZH: 波段交易者通常会用突破单入场，
38:01 - 38:03
EN: and they’re looking to hold for a long time.
ZH: 并且打算持有很长时间
38:04 - 38:06
EN: If a swing trader bought for any reason,
ZH: 如果波段交易者处于任何原因买入做多，
38:06 - 38:09
EN: like about this bull flag after this breakout,
ZH: 比如在突破之后的牛旗做多，
38:09 - 38:14
EN: he holds until there’s a reason to exit or until the end of the session.
ZH: 他会一直持有，直到有离场的理由，或直到收盘
38:15 - 38:18
EN: If you’re trading the daily chart of the euro versus the dollar,
ZH: 如果你在交易（右边）欧元兑美元的这段行情
38:18 - 38:24
EN: you enter for any reason – maybe below this bear reversal bar
ZH: 你处于任何理由做空了—— 比如在多头突破失败后的反转阴线的下方入场，
38:22 - 38:27
EN: after this bull breakout – and you hold indefinitely,
ZH: 你处于任何理由做空了—— 比如在多头突破失败后的反转阴线的下方入场， 然后坚定持有，直到出现离场的理由为止
38:25 - 38:27
EN: until there’s a reason to exit.
ZH: 然后坚定持有，直到出现离场的理由为止
38:27 - 38:30
EN: Here we have a Micro Double Bottom, fairly climactic move.
ZH: 这里有一个小双底，大阴线可能是抛售高潮，
38:30 - 38:32
EN: Maybe you want to exit down here.
ZH: 你可能会在这里止盈离场
38:35 - 38:38
EN: The bull buys above the bull flag.
ZH: 多头在牛旗上方买入
38:38 - 38:40
EN: The market stays Always In Long.
ZH: 市场始终处于单边上涨的趋势
38:40 - 38:44
EN: Maybe he’ll exit below this bear bar at the end of the session.
ZH: 多头可能会在尾盘的这根阴线下方离场
38:44 - 38:46
EN: Maybe he’ll exit at the close of the day.
ZH: 也许他会在当天收盘时离场
38:46 - 38:49
EN: Either way, he makes a lot of profit.
ZH: 无论是哪种方式，他都赚了很多钱
38:51 - 38:55
EN: A swing trader on the daily chart, if he did sell here,
ZH: 在日K线图上，如果波段交易者在这里开仓做空，
38:55 - 38:56
EN: there is no reason to exit.
ZH: 始终没有离场的理由
38:56 - 39:00
EN: He can hold for many, many bars – 30, 40, 50 bars
ZH: 他可以持仓很久很久——30、40、50根K线
39:00 - 39:03
EN: - and then we’re getting fairly climactic down here.
ZH: 然后在这里出现了相当剧烈的抛售高潮
39:03 - 39:05
EN: Micro Double Bottom, the biggest bear bar
ZH: 小双底，最大的阴线——
39:05 - 39:08
EN: - one of the biggest bear bars in the entire trend.
ZH: 整个下降趋势中最大的阴线之一
39:08 - 39:11
EN: Spike, pullback, parabolic channel.
ZH: 急速下跌，反弹，抛物线通道
39:11 - 39:15
EN: Reasonable to take profits and look to sell again on a bounce.
ZH: 这里先止盈是合理的，可以在反弹之后寻找新的做空机会
39:19 - 39:21
EN: Bull bar, doji.
ZH: 阳线，十字星
39:21 - 39:22
EN: Bull bar, bear bar.
ZH: 阳线，阴线
39:22 - 39:23
EN: Bad follow-through.
ZH: 糟糕的跟随
39:23 - 39:28
EN: The bar’s not all that big, lots of tails on tops of the bars, lots of overlap.
ZH: K线并不大，K线顶部有很多上影线，很多重叠
39:28 - 39:32
EN: It always looks like it’s going to convert into a Trading Range.
ZH: 总是看似即将变成震荡区间
39:35 - 39:40
EN: The probability of it continuing is low, yet it does happen.
ZH: 继续上涨的概率很低，但确实发生了
39:40 - 39:45
EN: As I said, about 10% of the time you’ll get a small pullback trend,
ZH: 正如前期所说，大约10%的时间你会遇到这种回调很小的趋势
39:46 - 39:47
EN: and the reward is huge.
ZH: 利润是巨大的
39:52 - 39:54
EN: The stop can be far away.
ZH: 止损可能很远
39:54 - 39:57
EN: If you buy here, you might put a stop here.
ZH: 如果你在这里买入，你可能会把止损放在这里
39:57 - 40:01
EN: But if you buy here or if you’re still long here, your stop is now far away.
ZH: 但如果你在这里买入，或者你仍然持有多头仓位， 现在你的止损距离非常远
40:01 - 40:05
EN: But the huge reward more than offsets the risk.
ZH: 但巨大的利润弥补了风险
40:05 - 40:08
EN: That means there’s a good risk/reward ratio.
ZH: 这意味着盈亏比很好
40:09 - 40:13
EN: There always has to be something in it for institutions taking the other side.
ZH: 机构肯定具有某种优势，才愿意做你的对手盘
40:13 - 40:17
EN: If you get great risk/reward, they get low probability.
ZH: 如果你有很好的盈亏比，那么它们拥有的就是高胜率
40:18 - 40:22
EN: If you’re buying here and you have great risk/reward,
ZH: 如果你在这里买入，并且你有极佳的盈亏比，
40:22 - 40:26
EN: you have low probability of making that great reward
ZH: 那么你赚到大钱的概率就很低
40:26 - 40:29
EN: - yet it happens about 10% of the time.
ZH: ——但是有10%的时候会发生这种行情
40:30 - 40:32
EN: That’s true here as well.
ZH: 这里也是一样
40:32 - 40:36
EN: We have a couple bear bars here, not especially big, and then dojis.
ZH: 这里有几个阴线，不是特别大，然后是十字星
40:36 - 40:38
EN: Bad follow-through after that bear bar.
ZH: 那个阴线后面的跟随很糟糕
40:38 - 40:40
EN: It looks like it’s trying to convert into a Trading Range.
ZH: 看起来市场正在尝试保持震荡区间
40:40 - 40:43
EN: However, it continues for a long, long time.
ZH: 然而，它（下降趋势）继续了很长时间
40:44 - 40:47
EN: Since it looks like it’s trying to convert into a Trading Range,
ZH: 因为它看起来像是要变成震荡区间——
40:47 - 40:52
EN: what I’m saying is the probability is that it is going
ZH: 我的意思是，变成震荡区间的概率很高
40:50 - 40:52
EN: to start to convert into a Trading Range.
ZH: 我的意思是，变成震荡区间的概率很高
40:52 - 40:59
EN: That means there’s a low probability that it will not.
ZH: 也就是说，市场一直下跌、下跌、下跌的概率很低
40:55 - 40:59
EN: There’s a low probability that it will just keep trending down and down and down.
ZH: 也就是说，市场一直下跌、下跌、下跌的概率很低
40:59 - 41:02
EN: Low probability, but huge reward.
ZH: 概率低，但利润巨大
41:02 - 41:04
EN: Great risk/reward ratio.
ZH: 盈亏比非常好
41:04 - 41:06
EN: Great for swing traders.
ZH: 对波段交易者来说这是好事
Slide 016
Time: 41:10
Bilingual Transcript
41:15 - 41:18
EN: Scalpers need high probability.
ZH: 而剥头皮交易者需要高胜率
41:18 - 41:20
EN: Buying when the market looks like this,
ZH: 在这种行情买入做多，
41:20 - 41:22
EN: the probability’s not all that high.
ZH: 胜率并不是那么的高 （注：随时面临回调、被套牢的风险）
41:22 - 41:24
EN: Also, if you’re buying here, for example,
ZH: 还有，假设你在这里买入，
41:24 - 41:29
EN: you’re looking for a small profit, yet your risk is big.
ZH: 目标是赚小钱，但是风险非常大
41:29 - 41:34
EN: That means the Trader’s Equation
ZH: 也就是说在这里买入做剥头皮交易的数学期望很差
41:31 - 41:34
EN: when you’re buying for a scalp (a small profit) is bad.
ZH: 也就是说在这里买入做剥头皮交易的数学期望很差
41:35 - 41:41
EN: The result is there are very few good scalp setups
ZH: 结果是，当市场处于回调很小的趋势中时， 几乎没有好的剥头皮交易机会
41:39 - 41:41
EN: when the market’s in a small pullback trend,
ZH: 结果是，当市场处于回调很小的趋势中时， 几乎没有好的剥头皮交易机会
41:41 - 41:44
EN: and therefore a scalper does not make much money.
ZH: 因此，剥头皮交易者赚不到多少钱
41:44 - 41:45
EN: He misses most of the trend.
ZH: 他会错过大部分趋势
41:45 - 41:47
EN: The same is true here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
41:47 - 41:51
EN: On a daily chart, traders don’t use the term “scalper” and “swing trader.”
ZH: 在日K线上，交易者不用“剥头皮”和“波段”这两个词
41:51 - 41:55
EN: They use the term “trader” and “investor.” A trader is someone
ZH: 他们使用“交易者”和“投资者”这两个词
41:55 - 41:59
EN: who’s looking for a quick trade, exiting after 1, 2, or 3 bars,
ZH: 交易者是指做短线交易的人，在1、2或3根K线后离场
41:59 - 42:03
EN: and an investor is holding until market conditions change.
ZH: 而投资者则一直持有，直到市场的情况改变
42:03 - 42:06
EN: Traders on a daily chart like this
ZH: 在这种日K线上交易的人，
42:06 - 42:09
EN: are not expecting the market to continue down forever.
ZH: 不会预料到市场会无止境地这样下跌
42:10 - 42:12
EN: We lack consecutive big bear bars.
ZH: 没有连续的大阴线
42:12 - 42:14
EN: We’re getting dojis, we’re getting overlap.
ZH: 有十字星，有重叠
42:14 - 42:19
EN: It looks like the market will soon convert into a Trading Range.
ZH: 看起来市场很快会转变为震荡区间
42:19 - 42:21
EN: Therefore, the probability is low.
ZH: 因此，（一直跌）概率很低
42:22 - 42:27
EN: A trader, a fast money trader, is looking to exit after 1 or 2 bars.
ZH: 一个交易者，一个短线交易者， 会在1~2根K线后离场
42:28 - 42:33
EN: He needs high probability because he’s looking for a small reward (a scalp)
ZH: 他需要高胜率，因为他在做剥头皮交易
42:33 - 42:35
EN: and his risk is relatively big.
ZH: 他的风险相对较大
42:35 - 42:36
EN: So he has bad risk/reward.
ZH: 所以他的盈亏比不好
42:36 - 42:41
EN: The only way he can make money is if he’s taking a high probability trade.
ZH: 他只有靠高胜率交易才能赚钱
42:42 - 42:48
EN: Trends that look like this do not have high probabilities of making small profits,
ZH: 像这样的下降趋势，没有赚小钱的高胜率机会，
42:48 - 42:51
EN: and therefore there are not a lot of good scalp setups.
ZH: 所以不存在很多好的剥头皮交易机会
42:51 - 42:55
EN: When a trend is tight like this, you can’t buy, and if you’re selling,
ZH: 下降通道这么窄，你没办法做多，但如果你做空，
42:55 - 43:00
EN: you’re always selling at the bottom of a trend that looks weak
ZH: 感觉好像会卖在下降趋势的最低点， 这个下降趋势看上去不强，随时可能被反转
42:58 - 43:00
EN: and it looks like it’s about to reverse.
ZH: 感觉好像会卖在下降趋势的最低点， 这个下降趋势看上去不强，随时可能被反转
43:07 - 43:09
EN: Reasonable for a scalper to buy this.
ZH: 剥头皮交易者在这里买入是合理的
43:09 - 43:13
EN: They have a breakout and a Double Bottom bull flag and a good buy signal bar.
ZH: 突破、回调、双底牛旗，然后有好的做多信号K线
43:13 - 43:16
EN: But if he’s a scalper, he’s looking to take quick profits.
ZH: 但如果他是剥头皮交易者，他想要赚快钱
43:20 - 43:26
EN: When the market looks like this, constantly looking
ZH: 当市场看上去像这样，不断地尝试变成震荡区间时
43:24 - 43:26
EN: like it’s about to convert into a Trading Range,
ZH: 当市场看上去像这样，不断地尝试变成震荡区间时
43:26 - 43:30
EN: there are not many high probability setups for scalps,
ZH: 高胜率的剥头皮机会并不多
43:30 - 43:33
EN: and therefore a scalper ends up missing most of the trend.
ZH: 因此，剥头皮交易者最终会错过趋势中的大部分涨幅
43:33 - 43:37
EN: He gets one trade here and that’s pretty much it.
ZH: 他在这里做了一笔交易，仅此而已
43:41 - 43:44
EN: The opposite’s true here in a Small Pullback Bear Trend.
ZH: 在反弹很小的下降趋势中，也是一样
43:49 - 43:53
EN: Scalper might sell there, but remember, he’s looking for a quick profit.
ZH: 剥头皮交易者可能会在那里开仓做空， 但是你要知道，他在赚快钱
43:53 - 43:57
EN: So he gets out there, and he has very few other opportunities to make money.
ZH: 所以他在那里止盈离场， 接下来，几乎没有什么赚钱的机会了
43:57 - 44:01
EN: Maybe he sells below this bear flag and then he scalps out.
ZH: 也许在这个熊旗下方做空，然后赚快钱离场
44:01 - 44:06
EN: The result is he makes very little money compared to the swing trader.
ZH: 结果是，与波段交易者相比，他只赚了一点点钱
44:10 - 44:17
EN: Not a lot of high probability shorts selling
ZH: 下降通道中有很多十字星，而市场总是处在通道的下沿， 没有很多高胜率的做空机会
44:13 - 44:17
EN: at the low of a bear channel that has lots of dojis in it.
ZH: 下降通道中有很多十字星，而市场总是处在通道的下沿， 没有很多高胜率的做空机会
44:17 - 44:22
EN: The result is a scalper does not make many trades and he does not make much money.
ZH: 结果就导致剥头皮交易者不会做很多交易， 所以赚不到什么钱
44:22 - 44:24
EN: A swing trader makes a lot of money.
ZH: 而波段交易者赚了很多钱
44:27 - 44:31
EN: Bull trend – well, bull trend and bear trend,
ZH: 上涨趋势——上涨趋势变成下降趋势
Slide 017
Time: 44:30
Bilingual Transcript
44:31 - 44:35
EN: but there’s something different from what I just showed.
ZH: 但和上一个案例中的趋势有所不同
44:35 - 44:37
EN: This is a 5-minute chart of the Emini
ZH: 左边是ES的5分钟图
44:37 - 44:40
EN: and this is a 5-minute chart of the euro versus the dollar.
ZH: 右边是欧元兑美元的5分钟图
44:44 - 44:47
EN: A bull breakout, lots of consecutive big bull bars.
ZH: 多头突破，很多连续的大阳线
44:47 - 44:49
EN: Probably will convert into a channel.
ZH: 之后大概率会转变为通道
44:49 - 44:51
EN: Spike, pullback, channel.
ZH: 急速上涨，回调，通道
44:51 - 44:53
EN: A Spike and Channel bull trend.
ZH: 急速变通道的上涨趋势
44:53 - 44:57
EN: The pullbacks are small, so it’s also a Small Pullback Bull Trend,
ZH: 也是一个回调很小的上涨趋势
44:57 - 45:03
EN: but 3, 4, 5, 6 bull bars – I would not call it a Small Pullback Bull Trend;
ZH: 但是连续3、4、5、6根阳线—— 我不会说它是回调很小的上涨趋势
45:03 - 45:08
EN: I would call it a strong breakout and a Buy The Close bull trend.
ZH: 我会说它是强势突破，是“买收盘”的上涨趋势
45:08 - 45:13
EN: Therefore, the breakout is a Buy The Close bull trend, and then we have a channel.
ZH: 所以，强势突破，是“买收盘”的上涨趋势， 然后进入通道
45:13 - 45:16
EN: Here, a series of bull bars, 3 or 4 bull bars.
ZH: 这里，一系列阳线，3~4根阳线
45:16 - 45:19
EN: Buy The Close bull trend, and then after 3 or 4 bear bars,
ZH: “买收盘”的上涨趋势，但是在3~4根阴线之后，
45:19 - 45:21
EN: you have a Sell The Close bear trend.
ZH: 变成了“卖收盘”的下降趋势
45:21 - 45:25
EN: The pullbacks are nonexistent or they’re small.
ZH: 几乎没有反弹，或幅度非常小
45:25 - 45:29
EN: Therefore, it’s also a Small Pullback Bear Trend, but I do not use
ZH: 所以，它也是一个反弹很小的下降趋势，
45:29 - 45:32
EN: that term when you’re getting a series of consecutive trend bars.
ZH: 只不过在出现连续的大阴线时，我不会这么说
45:32 - 45:35
EN: I prefer to call it a Sell The Close trend.
ZH: 我更喜欢说它是“卖收盘”的下降趋势
45:35 - 45:36
EN: I’m selling closes.
ZH: 我在（每根K线的）收盘卖出做空
45:36 - 45:37
EN: I’m buying closes.
ZH: 我在（每根K线的）收盘买入做多
45:47 - 45:52
EN: The probability is high after you’ve had 3 or 4 consecutive bull bars
ZH: 在连续3或4根没有重叠的阳线之后，做多胜率很高
45:51 - 45:52
EN: with very little overlap.
ZH: 在连续3或4根没有重叠的阳线之后，做多胜率很高
45:52 - 45:55
EN: The probability is high that the market’s going higher.
ZH: 市场继续上涨的概率很高
45:55 - 45:58
EN: Therefore, a scalper can buy the close here.
ZH: 因此，剥头皮交易者可以在它的收盘买入
45:58 - 46:00
EN: If he scalps out, another buy signal.
ZH: 快速止盈离场之后，这里又有做多信号
46:00 - 46:02
EN: If he scalps out, another buy signal.
ZH: 快速止盈离场，又有做多信号
46:02 - 46:03
EN: Another buy signal.
ZH: 又一个做多信号
46:03 - 46:09
EN: Lots of buy signals, in contrast to what you see in a Small Pullback Bull Trend.
ZH: 很多做多信号，这和回调很小的上涨趋势形成了鲜明的对比
46:09 - 46:12
EN: So a scalper can make a lot of money in a strong breakout.
ZH: 所以剥头皮交易者可以在强势突破中赚很多钱
46:14 - 46:15
EN: Decent reversals.
ZH: 不错的反转
46:15 - 46:17
EN: He can make money on the reversals.
ZH: 他也可以在反转中赚钱
46:17 - 46:22
EN: First reversal down, bulls are going to buy it after a strong breakout like this.
ZH: 像这样的强势突破之后，第1次反转下跌，多头会逢低买入
46:22 - 46:24
EN: We’re probably going up for some kind of a Measured Move,
ZH: 很可能会涨到某个MM目标位
46:24 - 46:27
EN: and therefore every time the market reverses down,
ZH: 因此，每次市场下跌回调的时候，
46:27 - 46:29
EN: the scalper has another buy opportunity.
ZH: 都是剥头皮交易者的买入机会
46:29 - 46:32
EN: He ends up making a lot of money.
ZH: 最终他赚了很多钱
46:37 - 46:39
EN: Market’s in a Small Pullback Bull Trend
ZH: 市场处于回调很小的上涨趋势中
46:39 - 46:42
EN: and now we’re getting a breakout – 2, 3, bull bars.
ZH: 然后多头突破——连续2、3根阳线
46:42 - 46:44
EN: Bulls will start buying closes.
ZH: 多头会开始在K线的收盘买入
46:44 - 46:46
EN: If a bull scalps out, he can buy again,
ZH: 快速止盈之后，可以再次入场，
46:46 - 46:49
EN: he can buy again, he can buy again, he can buy again.
ZH: 再次入场，再次入场，再次入场
46:49 - 46:50
EN: Lots of scalps.
ZH: 很多剥头皮的机会
46:50 - 46:53
EN: After a reversal, 3 or 4 bear bars, he’ll do the opposite.
ZH: 连续3~4根阴线反转之后，他开始做相反的事情
46:53 - 46:54
EN: He’ll start to sell closes.
ZH: 他开始在阴线的收盘卖出做空
46:54 - 46:58
EN: If he scalps out, lots of other closes that he can sell.
ZH: 快速止盈之后，可以在阴线的收盘再次入场做空
47:00 - 47:04
EN: This is a Small Pullback Bull Trend, but I would not use that term here.
ZH: 这是一个回调很小的上涨趋势， 但我不会这样去形容
47:04 - 47:07
EN: I tend to call this a Buy The Close bull trend
ZH: 我倾向于说它是“买收盘”的上涨趋势
47:07 - 47:10
EN: and this a Sell The Close bear trend.
ZH: 而这是“卖收盘”的下降趋势
47:10 - 47:15
EN: Scalpers like this kind of a market because they can enter every bar,
ZH: 剥头皮交易者喜欢这种行情， 因为每根K线，或者每2~3根K线，都有入场的机会
47:14 - 47:17
EN: every 2 or 3 bars, and make a lot of money.
ZH: 剥头皮交易者喜欢这种行情， 因为每根K线，或者每2~3根K线，都有入场的机会 他们可以赚很多钱
47:18 - 47:19
EN: High probability.
ZH: 胜率很高
47:19 - 47:23
EN: Unlike a Small Pullback Bull Trend, a strong breakout has high probability,
ZH: 和回调很小的上涨趋势相比，强势突破的胜率很高，
47:23 - 47:26
EN: and that’s what a scalper is trying to find.
ZH: 这就是剥头皮交易者想要的机会
47:27 - 47:30
EN: The high probability offsets the big risk.
ZH: 高胜率弥补了大风险
47:30 - 47:34
EN: If you buy here and you’re scalping, your reward is small, your risk is big,
ZH: 如果你在这里买入、剥头皮， 你的利润小，风险大
47:34 - 47:39
EN: so bad risk/reward, but very high probability of making money.
ZH: 所以盈亏比很差，但赚钱的概率非常高
47:39 - 47:40
EN: The same here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
47:40 - 47:42
EN: If you’re buying here, your stop might be down here.
ZH: 如果你在这里买入，你的止损可能在这里
47:42 - 47:45
EN: Even if you’re scalping, you’re putting a stop here or here,
ZH: 就算做剥头皮，也是把止损放在这里或这里
47:45 - 47:47
EN: so your risk/reward is bad.
ZH: 所以盈亏比不好
47:47 - 47:50
EN: Small reward, big risk.
ZH: 利润小，风险大
47:50 - 47:54
EN: Terrible risk/reward, but high probability of making profits.
ZH: 盈亏比很差，但盈利的概率很高
47:55 - 47:57
EN: Scalpers will take that trade all day long.
ZH: 剥头皮交易者一整天都在做这样的交易
47:57 - 47:59
EN: They want high probability.
ZH: 他们想要高胜率
47:59 - 48:02
EN: They always have to take bad risk/reward.
ZH: 他们必须接受糟糕的盈亏比
48:02 - 48:04
EN: They’re always going for a small reward,
ZH: 他们追求的利润很小，
48:04 - 48:07
EN: and that means their risk/reward is always bad.
ZH: 这意味着他们的盈亏比不好
48:07 - 48:11
EN: But great for scalpers, despite the small pullbacks.
ZH: 尽管回调很小，但对于剥头皮交易者来说仍然是好机会
48:13 - 48:17
EN: They can buy repeatedly, repeatedly take profits.
ZH: 他们可以反复入场、止盈、赚快钱
48:17 - 48:20
EN: Converts into a bear trend, a Sell The Close bear trend.
ZH: 转变为下降趋势——“卖收盘”的下降趋势
48:20 - 48:24
EN: Lots of trades for scalpers despite small pullbacks.
ZH: 尽管没有反弹，但有很多剥头皮的机会
48:28 - 48:31
EN: There are certain environments that are bad for swing traders.
ZH: 有些行情对波段交易者不利
Slide 018
Time: 48:30
Bilingual Transcript
48:32 - 48:34
EN: When the market is mostly sideways,
ZH: 当市场大部分时间都在横盘震荡的时候
48:34 - 48:37
EN: it’s very difficult for swing traders to make big profits.
ZH: 波段交易者很难赚到大钱
48:37 - 48:40
EN: They end up getting a lot of small losses or small wins.
ZH: 他们最终都是小赚小亏
48:49 - 48:50
EN: Look at this chart.
ZH: 比如这种行情
48:50 - 48:51
EN: Lots of reversals.
ZH: 来回反转
48:52 - 48:55
EN: Sometimes there are little swings up and down.
ZH: 偶尔也有小的波段
48:55 - 48:57
EN: This is a great environment for scalpers.
ZH: 这是剥头皮交易者最喜欢的行情
48:57 - 49:01
EN: They’ll enter with stops, they’ll enter at the market,
ZH: 他们可以用突破单入场，也可以用市价单，或者限价单入场
49:00 - 49:01
EN: they’ll enter with limit orders.
ZH: 他们可以用突破单入场，也可以用市价单，或者限价单入场
49:01 - 49:04
EN: They can scale in to increase their probability.
ZH: 他们可以加仓来提高胜率
49:04 - 49:09
EN: Remember, a scalper is looking for a small profit and he needs high probability.
ZH: 剥头皮交易者的目标是赚小钱，所以需要高胜率
49:09 - 49:13
EN: Sometimes a setup will not look like it’s a high probability trade,
ZH: 有时一个机会看起来的胜率并不高，
49:13 - 49:16
EN: but if he’s willing to scale in, he can increase his probability
ZH: 但如果他愿意加仓，就可以提高胜率
49:16 - 49:19
EN: and turn the trade into a high probability trade.
ZH: 所以就转变为了高胜率的交易机会
49:19 - 49:23
EN: The result is lots of opportunities for scalpers to make money.
ZH: 结果是，剥头皮交易者有很多赚钱的机会
49:23 - 49:26
EN: Lots of small profits add up to a big profit.
ZH: 很多小利润累积起来就是大利润
49:28 - 49:31
EN: For example, we have two legs down, reversal.
ZH: 例如，两段下跌，反转
49:31 - 49:34
EN: A scalper might buy here and then he’s scalping.
ZH: 剥头皮交易者可能会在这里买入，然后剥头皮
49:34 - 49:35
EN: He’s looking for a quick profit.
ZH: 他打算快速止盈
49:35 - 49:37
EN: He might exit there.
ZH: 他可以在那里离场
49:39 - 49:41
EN: He might buy at this low.
ZH: 他可以在这个低点挂单买入
49:41 - 49:43
EN: He may buy at this low.
ZH: 他可以在这个低点买入
49:43 - 49:46
EN: He may buy a certain number of points or pips down,
ZH: 在下跌一定距离之后，他可以买入
49:46 - 49:49
EN: and then he can buy more lower if it keeps going down,
ZH: 如果继续下跌，他可以加仓买入更多
49:49 - 49:51
EN: and then he’s exiting with a quick profit.
ZH: 然后快速止盈离场
49:53 - 49:54
EN: Lots of scalps like this.
ZH: 很多像这样的剥头皮机会
49:54 - 49:58
EN: Buying above a bull bar after the reversal up and then scalping out.
ZH: 反转上涨后在阳线上方买入，然后快速止盈离场
49:58 - 50:03
EN: Selling on the reversal down or selling at this high and then scalping out.
ZH: 在反转下跌时卖出，或在这个高点卖出， 然后快速止盈离场
50:03 - 50:07
EN: Buying on a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal with a good bull bar.
ZH: 低点抬高的大反转机会，在漂亮的阳线上方买入
50:07 - 50:10
EN: But he’s a scalper, so he’s going to take profits maybe at that high,
ZH: 但他是剥头皮交易者，所以他可能会在前期高点止盈
50:10 - 50:12
EN: and he just keeps doing this all day.
ZH: 然后一整天都做这样的交易
50:12 - 50:16
EN: Selling above that high, willing to scale in higher, scalp out.
ZH: 在那个高点上方挂单卖出，愿意逢高加仓， 然后赚快钱离场
50:16 - 50:18
EN: A two-legged pullback from a bull reversal.
ZH: 反转上涨后的两段回调
50:18 - 50:20
EN: He buys, he scalps out.
ZH: 买入，快速止盈
50:20 - 50:23
EN: He just does that all through this chart.
ZH: 他一直这样快进快出
50:23 - 50:25
EN: Lots of opportunity to make a lot of money.
ZH: 很多赚钱的机会
50:31 - 50:34
EN: However, all of these reversals are a problem for swing traders.
ZH: 然而，所有的这些反转，对波段交易者来说就是一个麻烦
50:34 - 50:37
EN: In general, they’re entering with stops.
ZH: 通常，他们用突破单入场、离场
50:37 - 50:40
EN: When you’re getting all of these reversals,
ZH: 然后遇到各种各样的反转
50:40 - 50:44
EN: the swing trader keeps getting stopped out with small losses or small profits.
ZH: 离场的突破单不断地被触发，都是小赚小亏
50:44 - 50:47
EN: Big profits are less common.
ZH: 很少能够大赚
50:47 - 50:52
EN: If this were a daily chart instead of using the term “scalping”
ZH: 如果这是日K线，那么就不用“剥头皮”和“波段”来描述，
50:51 - 50:55
EN: and “swing trading,” I would call someone taking quick profits a trader,
ZH: 如果这是日K线，那么就不用“剥头皮”和“波段”来描述， 我会把赚快钱的人成为交易者，
50:55 - 51:00
EN: and someone holding for a long time, I would call him an investor.
ZH: 而持仓很长时间的人，我称他为投资者
51:03 - 51:07
EN: Swing trader might buy the reversal, but then he sees the failed breakout
ZH: 波段交易者可能会买入做反转，但随后他看到突破失败
51:07 - 51:08
EN: and it’s starting to go down.
ZH: 并且开始下跌
51:08 - 51:09
EN: 3 bear bars.
ZH: 3根阴线
51:09 - 51:10
EN: He might exit.
ZH: 他可能会离场
51:10 - 51:12
EN: Small loss here, possibly.
ZH: 最终是小亏
51:13 - 51:16
EN: If he buys the Higher Low – we have a Double Top and a failed breakout,
ZH: 如果他在抬高的低点买入——双顶，突破失败，大阴线
51:16 - 51:20
EN: big bear bar – he might exit again.
ZH: 他可能会再次离场，这次是小赚
51:18 - 51:20
EN: Small profit.
ZH: 他可能会再次离场，这次是小赚
51:20 - 51:21
EN: We got a strong breakout.
ZH: 强势的突破
51:21 - 51:24
EN: He might buy the bull flag, and then he gets an immediate reversal.
ZH: 他在牛旗买入，结果立刻反转
51:24 - 51:25
EN: Small loss.
ZH: 小亏
51:26 - 51:30
EN: Therefore, lots of reversals with lots of sideways trading
ZH: 因此，很多反转，很多横盘震荡
51:30 - 51:32
EN: is a bad environment for swing trading.
ZH: 对波段交易来说是一个糟糕的环境
51:37 - 51:40
EN: I began by distinguishing swing trading from scalping.
ZH: 开始我讲了如何区分波段交易和剥头皮交易
Slide 019
Time: 51:40
Bilingual Transcript
51:40 - 51:43
EN: Swing traders are focusing on reward.
ZH: 波段交易者强调的是利润
51:43 - 51:45
EN: They want big profits.
ZH: 他们想要赚大钱
51:45 - 51:51
EN: In other words, they want a great risk/reward trade,
ZH: 换句话说，他们愿意接受较低的胜率， 来博取一个极佳的盈亏比
51:48 - 51:51
EN: and they pay for it by low probability.
ZH: 换句话说，他们愿意接受较低的胜率， 来博取一个极佳的盈亏比
51:51 - 51:55
EN: Most of the time when they take their trades,
ZH: 大多数时候，他们不会得到巨大的盈亏比 （注：大部分时候小赚小亏，偶尔大赚）
51:53 - 51:55
EN: they’re not going to get their huge risk/reward.
ZH: 大多数时候，他们不会得到巨大的盈亏比 （注：大部分时候小赚小亏，偶尔大赚）
51:56 - 51:59
EN: Scalpers, on the other hand, focus on probability.
ZH: 而剥头皮交易者则强调胜率
51:59 - 52:00
EN: They want a high probability.
ZH: 他们想要高胜率
52:00 - 52:03
EN: They’re going for a small reward.
ZH: 他们追求小的利润
52:03 - 52:06
EN: Sometimes their risk is big, the stop is far.
ZH: 有时他们的风险很大，止损很远
52:06 - 52:12
EN: Therefore, they’re willing to take terrible risk/reward in exchange
ZH: 因此，他们愿意接受糟糕的盈亏比， 来换取较高的胜率
52:10 - 52:12
EN: for a high probability of winning.
ZH: 因此，他们愿意接受糟糕的盈亏比， 来换取较高的胜率
52:13 - 52:17
EN: I then talked about the ideal environments for swing traders and scalpers.
ZH: 然后我分别讲了波段和剥头皮的理想行情
52:17 - 52:20
EN: Swing traders like trends – any kind of a trend.
ZH: 波段交易者喜欢趋势——任何类型的趋势
52:21 - 52:27
EN: Scalpers like reversals, pullbacks, and they also like very strong breakouts.
ZH: 而剥头皮交易者喜欢反转、回调， 他们也喜欢非常强势的突破
52:27 - 52:31
EN: For example, a Buy The Close bull trend or a Sell The Close bear trend
ZH: 比如“买收盘”的上涨趋势，或“卖收盘”的下降趋势
52:31 - 52:34
EN: is good for both a swing trader and for a scalper.
ZH: 对波段交易者和剥头皮交易者来说都是好机会
52:39 - 52:39
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
52:39 - 52:41
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
52:41 - 52:45
EN: This is the first of four videos on swing trading and scalping.
ZH: 波段交易和剥头皮交易的第1节课就先讲到这里