al-brooks-course
48C - Trading the Open
Raw transcript and slide notes for 48C - Trading the Open.
Overview
- Slides: 12
- Transcript segments: 465
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:09
EN: This is the third of six videos on trading the open.
ZH: 这是早盘的第3节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:11
Bilingual Transcript
00:13 - 00:18
EN: Context means all the bars to the left, and they affect how you trade
ZH: 背景指的就是左边所有的K线， 你应该根据背景来交易
00:18 - 00:21
EN: because they predict what the bars to the right will look like.
ZH: 因为左边的背景对接下来的行情有很大的影响
00:22 - 00:25
EN: Finally, I want to talk about how yesterday ended,
ZH: 此外，这节课我也会讲解为什么前一天的尾盘很重要
00:25 - 00:30
EN: because it affects how today will trade,
ZH: 因为前一天的尾盘会影响今天的行情，尤其是早盘的两三个小时
00:28 - 00:30
EN: especially during the first couple of hours.
ZH: 因为前一天的尾盘会影响今天的行情，尤其是早盘的两三个小时
Slide 002
Time: 00:31
Bilingual Transcript
00:39 - 00:44
EN: On the open, context is slightly less important than it
ZH: 和其他时段相比，在早盘，背景相对没有那么重要
00:42 - 00:44
EN: is during other times during the day.
ZH: 和其他时段相比，在早盘，背景相对没有那么重要
00:45 - 00:48
EN: For example, at this point during the day, Tight Trading Range
ZH: 例如，在盘中的这个时候，左边是窄震荡区间
00:48 - 00:51
EN: - probably going to be a lot of Tight Trading Range for the remainder of the day.
ZH: ——今天接下来的时间里大概率会继续窄幅震荡
00:53 - 00:56
EN: On the open, things that appear to be low probability
ZH: 而在早盘，看似低概率的事情， 实际上概率比你想象中要高得多
00:56 - 01:03
EN: are much higher probability than what you think, and things that you think
ZH: 而你认为高概率的事情，其实概率没那么高
00:59 - 01:03
EN: are high probability are lower probability than what you think.
ZH: 而你认为高概率的事情，其实概率没那么高
01:09 - 01:15
EN: Whenever there’s a reversal, even on the open, it always takes place
ZH: 任何反转，包括早盘的反转，总是发生在支撑和阻力位
01:13 - 01:22
EN: at support or resistance, and that means on the open,
ZH: 任何反转，包括早盘的反转，总是发生在支撑和阻力位 而对于早盘而言，支撑阻力往往来自前几天——左边的K线
01:17 - 01:22
EN: the support or resistance is created by prior days – bars to the left.
ZH: 而对于早盘而言，支撑阻力往往来自前几天——左边的K线
01:29 - 01:39
EN: Therefore, it’s usually good to pay attention to where
ZH: 所以关注支撑和阻力非常重要， 因为你要观察价格到了支撑和阻力附近时会有什么样的行为
01:32 - 01:39
EN: that support and resistance is, because you want to see
ZH: 所以关注支撑和阻力非常重要， 因为你要观察价格到了支撑和阻力附近时会有什么样的行为
01:35 - 01:39
EN: how the market will respond near that support or resistance.
ZH: 所以关注支撑和阻力非常重要， 因为你要观察价格到了支撑和阻力附近时会有什么样的行为
01:41 - 01:44
EN: Do you have to do that? No, I don’t need to know what the left looks like.
ZH: 一定要看左边的K线吗？ 不一定，比如这里，我不知道左边是什么样的行情
01:44 - 01:47
EN: I just know that we’re far below the average price
ZH: 但我知道目前价格远低于平均价格（均线）
01:47 - 01:49
EN: and we’re reversing up on the open.
ZH: 开盘之后价格一直在反弹
01:49 - 01:52
EN: The market’s trying to put in an early low of the day.
ZH: 多头尝试让开盘价成为今天的最低点
01:52 - 01:54
EN: We’re right at the average price, but below it,
ZH: 反弹到平均价格，被压制了
01:54 - 01:57
EN: and the market’s reversing down for a second time.
ZH: 现在市场第2次反转下跌
01:57 - 01:59
EN: It’s trying to put in an early high of the day.
ZH: 空头尝试让它成为今天的最高点
01:59 - 02:02
EN: I don’t need to know what the bars to the left look like.
ZH: 即使不知道左边的K线是什么样
02:02 - 02:06
EN: I know that from simply looking at what I see right here,
ZH: 但我知道目前市场正在做什么
02:06 - 02:09
EN: and therefore I can trade it based upon what I see here.
ZH: 所以我可以根据眼前的价格行为来进行交易
Slide 003
Time: 02:12
Bilingual Transcript
02:13 - 02:17
EN: I think this series of slides is particularly important for traders.
ZH: 接下来的几页课件都非常重要
02:18 - 02:19
EN: This is the daily chart.
ZH: 左边是日K线
02:19 - 02:20
EN: Here’s a 5-minute chart.
ZH: 右边是当天的5分钟图
02:20 - 02:23
EN: The white bar is a bull bar, white bar is a bull bar.
ZH: 白色的是阳线，5分钟图上阳线也是白色的
02:23 - 02:31
EN: On this chart, a black bar is a bear bar, and on this chart, daily chart,
ZH: 5分钟图上，阴线是黑色的； 日K线上，我用蓝色来表示阴线
02:28 - 02:31
EN: I have the bear bars represented by big blue bars.
ZH: 5分钟图上，阴线是黑色的； 日K线上，我用蓝色来表示阴线
02:33 - 02:36
EN: This is the start of today and this is today.
ZH: 这是当天的开盘价，我们看的是这一天
02:37 - 02:40
EN: This is a daily chart, and this is what the day
ZH: 这是它的日K线，当天日内的5分钟图是这样的
02:39 - 02:40
EN: looked like on the 5-minute chart.
ZH: 这是它的日K线，当天日内的5分钟图是这样的
02:42 - 02:50
EN: I think it’s very helpful when you’re trading the 5-minute chart to look
ZH: 在5分钟图上做日内交易的时候， 看一下过去几天的日K线是很有帮助的
02:46 - 02:50
EN: at the daily chart and see what the market has done over the prior days.
ZH: 在5分钟图上做日内交易的时候， 看一下过去几天的日K线是很有帮助的
02:57 - 02:59
EN: Closing near the open, closing near the open,
ZH: 在开盘价附近收盘，在开盘价附近收盘
02:59 - 03:01
EN: closing near the open, closing near the open.
ZH: 在开盘价附近收盘，在开盘价附近收盘
03:02 - 03:04
EN: It went down, next day it went up.
ZH: 这一天下跌，后一天上涨
03:04 - 03:05
EN: It went up, next day it went down.
ZH: 这一天上涨，后一天下跌
03:05 - 03:07
EN: It went down, next day it went up.
ZH: 这一天下跌，后一天上涨
03:07 - 03:09
EN: It went up, next day went down at least some.
ZH: 这一天上涨，后一天下跌了一些
03:10 - 03:12
EN: The market is reversing repeatedly.
ZH: 市场一直在反转
03:12 - 03:17
EN: A day like this, the market sold off and it rallied.
ZH: 这一天，市场先下跌再上涨——反转在一天之内完成
03:15 - 03:17
EN: It reversed in one day.
ZH: 这一天，市场先下跌再上涨——反转在一天之内完成
03:17 - 03:19
EN: Here, it reversed in two days.
ZH: 这里，反转用了两天时间
03:19 - 03:21
EN: Down one day, up the next day.
ZH: 前一天下跌，后一天上涨
03:21 - 03:24
EN: When you see this Tight Trading Range behavior
ZH: 当你看到这种窄震荡区间的价格行为——
03:24 - 03:30
EN: where the market is reversing every day, forming doji days,
ZH: 每一两天就反转，很多十字星， 涨一天跌一天——
03:27 - 03:30
EN: or every two days, forming 2 bar reversals,
ZH: 每一两天就反转，很多十字星， 涨一天跌一天——
03:30 - 03:32
EN: what do you think today’s going to be like?
ZH: 你觉得今天会是什么行情？
03:38 - 03:41
EN: When the market’s in a Tight Trading Range on the daily chart,
ZH: 如果日K线处于窄震荡区间
03:41 - 03:48
EN: most of the days are 1 day Trading Ranges (dojis) or 2 day Trading Ranges.
ZH: 很多交易日是为期一天的震荡区间（即十字星）， 或者为期两天的震荡区间——前一天涨，后一天跌
03:46 - 03:48
EN: Up one day, down the next.
ZH: 很多交易日是为期一天的震荡区间（即十字星）， 或者为期两天的震荡区间——前一天涨，后一天跌
03:48 - 03:50
EN: What do you think today will be like?
ZH: 你认为今天会怎么样？
03:50 - 03:53
EN: Well, it’s probably going to be a Trading Range day.
ZH: 今天大概率也是震荡区间日
03:53 - 03:58
EN: That means that even if you get a strong move down,
ZH: 也就是说，即使早盘大幅下跌，大概率也会涨回来
03:56 - 03:58
EN: it’s probably going to reverse up.
ZH: 也就是说，即使早盘大幅下跌，大概率也会涨回来
03:58 - 04:01
EN: If you get a strong move up, it’s probably going to reverse down,
ZH: 即使早盘大幅上涨，大概率也会跌回来
04:01 - 04:04
EN: and the market will try to close somewhere around the open.
ZH: 最终市场会在开盘价附近收盘
04:08 - 04:12
EN: That means that if the market is far above the open,
ZH: 换句话说，如果盘中价格远高于开盘价
04:12 - 04:19
EN: what do you think’s going to happen? Well, it’s probably going to reverse
ZH: 你认为会发生什么？ 大概率会反转下跌，并且在尾盘某个时候回测开盘价
04:16 - 04:19
EN: and get back down and test the open at some point later in the day,
ZH: 你认为会发生什么？ 大概率会反转下跌，并且在尾盘某个时候回测开盘价
04:20 - 04:24
EN: and therefore if you see a strong rally far above the open
ZH: 因此，如果看到大幅上涨，远高于开盘价
04:24 - 04:28
EN: and you see a reversal, you’ll be much more inclined to sell the reversal,
ZH: 然后看到了反转做空的信号， 交易者会更倾向于卖出做空
04:28 - 04:31
EN: expecting the market to come down and test the open.
ZH: 预期市场会下跌测试开盘价
04:31 - 04:34
EN: And at the open, you’ll look for a bounce up,
ZH: 回测开盘价之后，交易者预期价格反弹
04:34 - 04:36
EN: maybe trying to get back to the high.
ZH: 比如去测试前期的高点
04:36 - 04:39
EN: So, we got two legs down – one, pullback, two.
ZH: 两段下跌——1，反弹，2
04:39 - 04:42
EN: Bulls will look to buy a reversal up from around the open,
ZH: 当价格从开盘价反转上涨时，多头买入做多
04:42 - 04:46
EN: and when the market’s far above the open, even if it’s following a strong rally,
ZH: 当价格远离开盘价时，即使左边是很强的上涨波段
04:46 - 04:49
EN: traders will look to sell a reversal down to the open.
ZH: 交易者也会找机会做空，押注市场回测开盘价
04:50 - 04:52
EN: We’re trying to reverse up to the high.
ZH: 价格尝试回到前期最高点
04:52 - 04:54
EN: Still plenty of time left in the day.
ZH: 离收盘还有不少时间
04:54 - 04:58
EN: Traders will still bet the day will close near the open,
ZH: 交易者押注今天最终会在开盘价附近收盘
04:58 - 05:02
EN: and therefore they’ll be more willing to sell a reversal down,
ZH: 所以他们更愿意在反转下跌时做空
05:02 - 05:04
EN: even after a relatively strong rally.
ZH: 尽管左边是非常不错的上涨波段
05:05 - 05:11
EN: They look to the left and they see most of the days
ZH: 他们看左边的背景，看到最近大多数交易日都是在开盘价附近收盘， 这就是最近的价格行为
05:08 - 05:11
EN: closing near the open – well, this is what the days do.
ZH: 他们看左边的背景，看到最近大多数交易日都是在开盘价附近收盘， 这就是最近的价格行为
05:12 - 05:14
EN: When they rally strongly, they reverse down.
ZH: 大幅上涨以后，反转下跌
05:14 - 05:18
EN: When they sell off, they bounce up, and the day ends up closing near the open.
ZH: 大跌之后，又反弹上涨，最后在开盘价附近收盘
05:27 - 05:28
EN: Look at this day.
ZH: 看这一天
05:29 - 05:32
EN: A very big bear day closing below its midpoint
ZH: 大阴线收在一半以下
05:32 - 05:35
EN: and closing below the low of all these bars.
ZH: 收盘价低于前期所有K线的低点
05:35 - 05:37
EN: But look at here.
ZH: 但是看背景
05:37 - 05:40
EN: It’s a Tight Trading Range, and you know
ZH: 左边是窄震荡区间
05:40 - 05:45
EN: most breakouts below a Tight Trading Range,
ZH: 你知道在窄震荡区间里，大部分向下跌破的尝试， 大部分向上突破的尝试，都会失败
05:42 - 05:45
EN: most breakouts above a Tight Trading Range, will fail.
ZH: 你知道在窄震荡区间里，大部分向下跌破的尝试， 大部分向上突破的尝试，都会失败
05:45 - 05:49
EN: Therefore, if you see a big bear bar here today,
ZH: 因此，当你看到今天收了一根大阴线
05:49 - 05:51
EN: what do you think tomorrow’s going to do?
ZH: 你觉得明天会怎么样？
05:51 - 05:55
EN: Well, every bar to the left has either been a 1 day reversal
ZH: 左边所有的日K线，要么当天就反转了（十字星）
05:55 - 06:00
EN: or a 2 day reversal, and therefore if you see a big bear breakout,
ZH: 要么第2天反转，所以当你看到今天这根大阴线的时候
06:00 - 06:03
EN: you’re going to assume it’s going to be part of a 2 day reversal,
ZH: 你必须考虑到它第2天很可能会被反转
06:03 - 06:06
EN: and that means tomorrow is going to be a bull day.
ZH: 也就是说明天会上涨
06:06 - 06:09
EN: Therefore, when you see this close,
ZH: 因此，看到这根大阴线之后
06:09 - 06:13
EN: tomorrow you have to assume we’re going to get an early low
ZH: 你必须假设，明天的低点很早就会出现
06:13 - 06:16
EN: of the day and the day will try to be a bull today, reversing this day.
ZH: 然后会尝试形成上涨趋势日，反转今天的跌幅
Slide 004
Time: 06:20
Bilingual Transcript
06:20 - 06:26
EN: Can you see the difference between this chart and the last chart,
ZH: 能看出这张图的不同吗？ 上一张图里全都是十字星，这张图呢？
06:23 - 06:28
EN: where all the bars were dojis? What do you see here? This is a daily chart.
ZH: 能看出这张图的不同吗？ 上一张图里全都是十字星，这张图呢？ 左边是日K线
06:28 - 06:30
EN: This bar is here.
ZH: 这根日K线的日内5分钟图在右边
06:31 - 06:39
EN: On this day you look to the left and you say, huh, I see 4 bull bars closing
ZH: 这一天，你看左边的背景，你会发现： “哈，连续4根阳线收在一半以上，好几根都收在几乎最高。”
06:35 - 06:39
EN: above their midpoints, and several of them are closing near their highs.
ZH: 这一天，你看左边的背景，你会发现： “哈，连续4根阳线收在一半以上，好几根都收在几乎最高。”
06:39 - 06:41
EN: Therefore, what do I think today will do?
ZH: 所以今天会是什么样的行情？
06:42 - 06:46
EN: Well, I think it’s probably going to do what it’s been doing
ZH: 今天市场大概率会继续做过去几天一直在做的事情
06:45 - 06:53
EN: over the past several days, and that means that it’s probably
ZH: 今天市场大概率会继续做过去几天一直在做的事情 大概率又是一根阳线收在高位， 也就是说，最后的收盘价和最高点会非常接近
06:48 - 06:53
EN: going to close near its high, which means toward the end of the day
ZH: 大概率又是一根阳线收在高位， 也就是说，最后的收盘价和最高点会非常接近
06:51 - 06:53
EN: it’s going to be near the high of the day.
ZH: 大概率又是一根阳线收在高位， 也就是说，最后的收盘价和最高点会非常接近
06:53 - 06:56
EN: That means it’s probably going to put in an early low of the day,
ZH: 还有，今天的最低点很可能在早盘就形成了
06:57 - 07:00
EN: and therefore I’m going to be looking to buy an early selloff,
ZH: 因此如果早盘下跌的话，我要找机会买入
07:00 - 07:06
EN: betting that it will fail and the market will trend up
ZH: 押注反转下跌的尝试会失败， 押注市场会像前几天一样成为上涨趋势日
07:03 - 07:06
EN: and be a bull trend day like all the prior days.
ZH: 押注反转下跌的尝试会失败， 押注市场会像前几天一样成为上涨趋势日
07:06 - 07:08
EN: Then if it sells off late in the day,
ZH: 然后，如果尾盘有一些下跌，
07:08 - 07:11
EN: it’s probably going to rally and close near the high.
ZH: 它很可能会在收盘前恢复上涨，最后收盘在高位
07:19 - 07:21
EN: Remember I talked in an earlier video
ZH: 上节课有讲到
07:21 - 07:25
EN: that when you have a bull day like this and a tail on the bottom,
ZH: 如果上涨趋势日的底部有这样的下影线
07:25 - 07:28
EN: the tail is usually caused by an opening reversal down
ZH: 通常都是由于早盘的反转上涨形成的
07:28 - 07:30
EN: - an early selloff that reverses up.
ZH: ——开盘下跌，然后很快反转上涨
07:31 - 07:36
EN: When you have a bunch of bull days, most bars on the daily chart,
ZH: 日线图上有一堆阳线， 其中大部分也都有下影线
07:34 - 07:36
EN: even if they’re bull days, have tails below.
ZH: 日线图上有一堆阳线， 其中大部分也都有下影线
07:37 - 07:43
EN: When you have bull bars with tails below,
ZH: 阳线的下影线，90%的概率来自于早盘的下跌
07:40 - 07:43
EN: 90% of the time that tail comes from an early selloff.
ZH: 阳线的下影线，90%的概率来自于早盘的下跌
07:44 - 07:48
EN: Therefore, when this day opens and you see an early selloff, guess what?
ZH: 因此，今天开盘后你看到价格在下跌，怎么办？
07:48 - 07:51
EN: You have to assume it’s going to fail and reverse up,
ZH: 你必须假设空头会失败，然后价格反转上涨
07:51 - 07:59
EN: so you have to pay much more attention to buying opportunities
ZH: 所以，如果日K线是这样的，而今天早盘在下跌， 此时你更应该关注做多的机会
07:54 - 07:59
EN: when you see an early selloff like this when the daily chart looks like this.
ZH: 所以，如果日K线是这样的，而今天早盘在下跌， 此时你更应该关注做多的机会
08:06 - 08:13
EN: This tail on the bottom of this bar means that the low of the day
ZH: 底部的下影线，代表着开盘之后有一些下跌， 然后价格从那里反转上涨
08:10 - 08:13
EN: is below the open and the market reversed up from there,
ZH: 底部的下影线，代表着开盘之后有一些下跌， 然后价格从那里反转上涨
08:13 - 08:16
EN: and therefore if you see an early selloff,
ZH: 因此，如果你看到早盘下跌
08:16 - 08:20
EN: be prepared to buy a reversal up or a pullback from that reversal up.
ZH: 准备好在反转上涨时买入，或者在反转上涨后的回调时买入
08:20 - 08:24
EN: So, bull trend, a two-legged pullback to a High 2 bull flag,
ZH: 上涨趋势，两段回调，高2牛旗
08:25 - 08:26
EN: another opportunity to buy.
ZH: 也是一个不错的买点
08:26 - 08:29
EN: Micro Double Bottom, bull bar closing on its high.
ZH: 小双底，阳线收在最高
08:29 - 08:31
EN: Good bet that we’re going higher.
ZH: 非常不错的做多机会
08:37 - 08:40
EN: The bulls want an early test of the bears.
ZH: 多头想在早盘测试空头的力量
08:40 - 08:48
EN: They want to make sure that the bears are not strong, so the bulls are happy
ZH: 他们想要确认空头仍然很弱， 所以多头乐于见到开盘之后的下跌， 然后他们会尝试买入制造反转
08:44 - 08:48
EN: to have a strong selloff, and then they try to reverse it up.
ZH: 所以多头乐于见到开盘之后的下跌， 然后他们会尝试买入制造反转
08:48 - 08:52
EN: If they see that they are able to reverse it up, they’re going to bet
ZH: 如果发现确实能够反转上涨，
08:52 - 08:54
EN: that the bears don’t want to sell at this price.
ZH: 就说明空头没有足够的力量让价格跌破
08:54 - 08:56
EN: Here, the bears tried again, they tried again,
ZH: 这里，空头再次尝试，再次尝试
08:56 - 08:59
EN: and each time the bulls overcame the bears,
ZH: 每次多头都战胜了空头
08:59 - 09:02
EN: and eventually the bears give up and the bulls can get a swing up.
ZH: 最终空头放弃，多头制造了上涨波段
09:02 - 09:10
EN: So, the bulls are happy to have an early selloff because they want to see
ZH: 所以，多头乐于看到价格在开盘下跌 因为他们想知道自己是否能让市场反转上涨， 如果可以，多头就会变得更加自信
09:07 - 09:10
EN: if they can reverse it up, and if they can, then they become confident
ZH: 因为他们想知道自己是否能让市场反转上涨， 如果可以，多头就会变得更加自信
09:10 - 09:12
EN: that we’re putting in an early low of the day
ZH: 有信心这就是今天的最低点，
09:12 - 09:15
EN: and that we might get a swing up that could last several hours.
ZH: 接下来能制造持续几个小时的上涨波段
09:20 - 09:25
EN: Bulls will even buy a strong bear close like this because they look
ZH: 多头甚至会在这种大阴线的收盘买入
09:25 - 09:29
EN: at the prior days and they say, ah, every day has a tail below.
ZH: 因为回看过去几天，多头发现： “诶？每天都有一点下影线。”
09:29 - 09:33
EN: That means there was a selloff on the open and the selloff reversed.
ZH: 这说明每天开盘的下跌都会被反转
09:34 - 09:37
EN: Therefore, if I see a strong selloff on the open,
ZH: 所以，如果多头看到开盘之后价格在下跌
09:37 - 09:41
EN: I’m going to buy it, betting on a reversal instead of a bear trend.
ZH: 他们会逢低买入，押注反转上涨，而不是变成下降趋势
09:41 - 09:44
EN: Stop entry bulls like to buy above bars with stops,
ZH: 突破单多头喜欢在K线上方用突破买单入场，
09:44 - 09:46
EN: especially a second entry buy.
ZH: 尤其是第2做多入场点
09:46 - 09:50
EN: The market went above this doji bar, but 2 big bear bars
ZH: 价格突破了这个十字星的高点，但左边有两根大阴线
09:50 - 09:52
EN: - maybe it’ll get a small second leg down.
ZH: 大概率至少会有小的第2段下跌
09:52 - 09:56
EN: However, a second entry buy with a bull body, bulls will take that buy.
ZH: 然而没有第2段下跌，反而出现了第2做多入场点，而且有好的阳线， 多头会在它的上方买入做多
10:00 - 10:01
EN: Look at this.
ZH: 下一个案例
Slide 005
Time: 10:00
Bilingual Transcript
10:01 - 10:03
EN: This is today, right here.
ZH: 来看这一天，日内的5分钟图
10:03 - 10:05
EN: This is the daily chart, and what do you see to the left?
ZH: 在日线图上，你能看到哪些信息？
10:06 - 10:10
EN: Well, over the past 8 or 10 bars, no bull bodies.
ZH: 过去的8到10天，一根阳线都没有
10:11 - 10:13
EN: Well, is today going to have a bull body?
ZH: 今天会收一根阳线吗？
10:13 - 10:17
EN: Is today going to close above its open? It might, but it probably will not.
ZH: 今天的收盘价会高于开盘价吗？ 不是完全没可能，但大概率不会
10:18 - 10:24
EN: Traders are going to assume that it’ll sell off early in the day,
ZH: 交易者会假设今天也是下跌的一天， 就像左边大多数交易日一样
10:21 - 10:24
EN: like most of the days did to the left.
ZH: 交易者会假设今天也是下跌的一天， 就像左边大多数交易日一样
10:30 - 10:34
EN: You know that if today is going to be a bear trend day,
ZH: 如果今天真的是下降趋势日
10:34 - 10:38
EN: that tail on top probably came in the first hour or so of the day.
ZH: 那么日K线的上影线大概率就是在早盘第1个小时形成的
10:38 - 10:48
EN: There was a rally and it failed, and therefore when today opens you have
ZH: 开盘上涨，但是失败了 所以你必须寻找早盘反转下跌的机会，尤其是第2做空入场点
10:43 - 10:48
EN: to be looking for an early high of the day
ZH: 所以你必须寻找早盘反转下跌的机会，尤其是第2做空入场点
10:45 - 10:48
EN: - a reversal down, especially a second entry.
ZH: 所以你必须寻找早盘反转下跌的机会，尤其是第2做空入场点
10:48 - 10:50
EN: Below the bear bar here is the first entry,
ZH: 这根阴线下方是第1做空入场点
10:50 - 10:52
EN: and then we have a second entry here.
ZH: 第2做空入场点在这里
10:52 - 10:55
EN: Micro Double Top, bear bar closing on its low.
ZH: 小双顶，阴线收在最低
10:55 - 10:59
EN: A reasonable sell, taking a chance that today will be a bear day
ZH: 做空是合理的，押注今天也是下跌的一天，
10:59 - 11:00
EN: like most of the prior days.
ZH: 就像之前大部分交易日一样
11:01 - 11:04
EN: Traders will look to sell an early reversal down.
ZH: 交易者会在早盘反转下跌的时候做空
11:10 - 11:15
EN: This tail on the top of this bear bar was caused by this rally.
ZH: 这根阴线的上影线来自于开盘之后的上涨
11:15 - 11:18
EN: Here’s the open of the bear bar, there’s the high of the day.
ZH: 这是当天的开盘价，这是最高点
11:18 - 11:25
EN: The high formed early, and this brown box represents this tail
ZH: 高点很早就出现了，这个棕色框框就是日K线的上影线
11:23 - 11:25
EN: on the top of that bear bar.
ZH: 高点很早就出现了，这个棕色框框就是日K线的上影线
11:32 - 11:35
EN: The bears want an early rally because they want to see
ZH: 空头乐于见到开盘之后的上涨
11:35 - 11:38
EN: if they can overwhelm the bulls and make them give up,
ZH: 因为他们想知道自己是否能够击溃多头并让他们放弃
11:38 - 11:44
EN: and if they can, they’ll bet that we’ll have a swing down
ZH: 如果可以，那么空头就会押注下跌波段会持续两三个小时， 甚至能下跌一整天
11:41 - 11:44
EN: that could last 2 or 3 hours, maybe all day.
ZH: 如果可以，那么空头就会押注下跌波段会持续两三个小时， 甚至能下跌一整天
11:51 - 11:55
EN: The bears will sell a reversal down, especially a second entry short,
ZH: 空头会在反转下跌时卖出做空，尤其是第2做空入场点
11:55 - 12:02
EN: entering with a stop, and they’ll also sell the breakout
ZH: 用突破卖单入场； 他们也会在K线上方挂限价卖单，押注价格不会上涨太多
11:59 - 12:02
EN: above the high of a bar, betting that the rally will not get very far.
ZH: 用突破卖单入场； 他们也会在K线上方挂限价卖单，押注价格不会上涨太多
12:03 - 12:05
EN: Here we have a bull bar but a big tail on top,
ZH: 这根阳线的上影线很长
12:05 - 12:09
EN: and the next bar is a big doji – a bad buy signal bar.
ZH: 下一根K线是很大的十字星——糟糕的做多信号
12:10 - 12:12
EN: Tight Trading Range, probably sellers above.
ZH: 窄震荡区间，上方大概率有更多卖盘
12:12 - 12:15
EN: Since most of the days have bear bodies,
ZH: 由于最近大部分交易日都是阴线
12:15 - 12:17
EN: today’s probably going to have a bear body.
ZH: 所以今天大概率也是下跌的
12:17 - 12:22
EN: Therefore, not only are there sellers
ZH: 因此，空头在上方卖出做空， 不仅仅是押注窄震荡区间会继续，
12:18 - 12:22
EN: above betting that the Tight Trading Range will continue,
ZH: 因此，空头在上方卖出做空， 不仅仅是押注窄震荡区间会继续，
12:22 - 12:25
EN: there are bears betting that this instead will be the high of the day,
ZH: 更是在押注这就是今天的最高点
12:25 - 12:27
EN: not just the high of a Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 不仅仅只是窄震荡区间的上沿
Slide 006
Time: 12:29
Bilingual Transcript
12:31 - 12:34
EN: Any higher timeframe can be important.
ZH: 任何更高的时间周期都可能提供重要的支撑和阻力
12:34 - 12:38
EN: Here’s a 60-minute chart and here’s a 5-minute chart.
ZH: 左边是60分钟图，右边是5分钟图
12:46 - 12:50
EN: When you have a higher timeframe chart,
ZH: 在更高的时间周期，比如60分钟图，这里有阻力
12:48 - 12:50
EN: like a 60-minute chart, you have resistance
ZH: 在更高的时间周期，比如60分钟图，这里有阻力
12:50 - 12:54
EN: - but look how long it’s been since it tested the resistance.
ZH: 但是，看每次测试阻力相隔的时间——
12:54 - 12:55
EN: 2 bars, 2 hours.
ZH: 两根K线，两个小时
12:55 - 13:00
EN: Here, 3 hours since it tested that resistance, and therefore resistance
ZH: 这里距离上次测试均线隔了三个小时
13:00 - 13:05
EN: on a 60-minute chart does not give a lot of signals on a 5-minute chart.
ZH: 所以在遇到60分钟周期阻力的时候， 需要去5分钟图上寻找提前入场的信号
13:06 - 13:09
EN: This blue line is this blue line.
ZH: 这条蓝色的均线，就是60分钟图的均线
13:09 - 13:13
EN: This is the 20 bar Exponential Moving Average on the 60-minute chart,
ZH: 它是60分钟图的EMA20
13:13 - 13:17
EN: and I wrote a formula to show it on the 5-minute chart.
ZH: 我写了一个程序，让它显示在5分钟图上
13:17 - 13:22
EN: This high is that high, and this high is that high.
ZH: 这个高点就是那个高点，这个高点就是那个高点
13:26 - 13:32
EN: These two peaks on the 5-minute chart represent this high,
ZH: 5分钟图上的这两个高点， 对应这个高点，还有后面这个高点
13:30 - 13:32
EN: and then a high that occurred later over here.
ZH: 5分钟图上的这两个高点， 对应这个高点，还有后面这个高点
13:33 - 13:35
EN: The formula that I use is not perfect
ZH: 移植均线的程序并不完美
13:35 - 13:38
EN: because it’s based upon the 5-minute chart.
ZH: 因为它毕竟是基于5分钟的数据
13:38 - 13:45
EN: You can see that this high on the 5-minute chart did not get
ZH: 可以看到，在5分钟图上，价格没有完全碰到这条均线， 但在60分钟图上，价格碰到了均线
13:41 - 13:45
EN: above the 60-minute Moving Average, but on the 60-minute chart it did.
ZH: 可以看到，在5分钟图上，价格没有完全碰到这条均线， 但在60分钟图上，价格碰到了均线
13:45 - 13:47
EN: But it’s a pretty good approximation.
ZH: 但已经非常近视了
13:50 - 13:52
EN: This is today’s open.
ZH: 这是今天的开盘
13:52 - 13:54
EN: We’re below the 60-minute Moving Average.
ZH: 价格低于60分钟的EMA20
13:54 - 13:56
EN: Look at all of the bear bars here.
ZH: 观察所有的这些阴线
13:56 - 13:58
EN: We’re below the 60-minute Moving Average.
ZH: 价格低于60分钟的EMA20
13:58 - 14:02
EN: The 60-minute Moving Average was resistance here, which is right here.
ZH: 60分钟的EMA20是阻力，价格在这里反转下跌
14:02 - 14:05
EN: It might be resistance again today on the 5-minute chart,
ZH: 在5分钟图上，这条均线可能再次提供阻力
14:06 - 14:09
EN: and therefore even with a very strong rally like this on the open,
ZH: 所以尽管开盘有非常强势的上涨
14:10 - 14:15
EN: you have to be prepared for the market possibly reversing down
ZH: 你也必须做好价格会从60分钟EMA20反转下跌的准备
14:13 - 14:15
EN: from the 60-minute chart.
ZH: 你也必须做好价格会从60分钟EMA20反转下跌的准备
14:15 - 14:20
EN: Remember that on the open, no matter how strong a rally or selloff is,
ZH: 要记得，不管开盘的上涨或下跌看起来多么强势
14:21 - 14:23
EN: there’s a 50% chance it’s going to reverse.
ZH: 它有50%的概率会被反转
14:23 - 14:28
EN: Here, it was simply a test of resistance at the 60-minute Moving Average.
ZH: 这里的上涨只是测试了60分钟级别的均线阻力
14:33 - 14:36
EN: We have a Double Top at the 60-minute Moving Average,
ZH: 在60分钟的EMA20形成了双顶
14:36 - 14:38
EN: a Double Top at the 60-minute Moving Average.
ZH: 在60分钟的EMA20形成了双顶
14:39 - 14:41
EN: Reasonable to look for a reversal down.
ZH: 做空押注反转下跌是合理的
14:42 - 14:43
EN: Second entry sell.
ZH: 第2做空入场点
14:43 - 14:50
EN: Here’s the first below this bear bar, and then the second’s
ZH: 第1入场点是这根阴线的下方， 那根阳线，或者这根阴线的下方是第2入场点
14:46 - 14:50
EN: below that bull bar or below a bear bar here.
ZH: 第1入场点是这根阴线的下方， 那根阳线，或者这根阴线的下方是第2入场点
14:55 - 14:59
EN: The end of yesterday affects the beginning of today.
ZH: 昨天的尾盘会影响今天的开盘
Slide 007
Time: 14:55
Bilingual Transcript
No transcript segment aligned to this slide.
Slide 008
Time: 15:00
Bilingual Transcript
15:02 - 15:06
EN: Very strong bull trend, strong bull trend, strong bull trend.
ZH: 非常强的上涨趋势，强上涨趋势，强上涨趋势
15:09 - 15:14
EN: This line is the end of yesterday; this is the start of today.
ZH: 这条竖线是昨天收盘的时间，然后这是今天的开盘
15:14 - 15:17
EN: This is the end of yesterday; this is the start of today.
ZH: 这是昨天的收盘，这是今天的开盘
15:17 - 15:18
EN: Small gap up.
ZH: 小幅跳空高开
15:18 - 15:20
EN: This represents the open today.
ZH: 这是今天的开盘
15:20 - 15:22
EN: Small gap up.
ZH: 小幅跳空高开
15:22 - 15:27
EN: Whenever there’s a strong bull trend yesterday – I call that a Buy Climax;
ZH: 如果昨天是强上涨趋势——我称之为抢购高潮
15:27 - 15:33
EN: it’s a very Tight Bull Channel – there’s a 50% chance that the market
ZH: 昨天是非常窄的上涨通道—— 50%的概率，今天早盘的前两个小时会继续上涨
15:31 - 15:33
EN: will try to rally in the first 2 hours.
ZH: 昨天是非常窄的上涨通道—— 50%的概率，今天早盘的前两个小时会继续上涨
15:33 - 15:35
EN: In other words, follow-through buying.
ZH: 换句话说，会有跟随的买盘
15:41 - 15:46
EN: There’s a 75% chance that the market will have at least 2 hours of sideways
ZH: 有75%的概率，开盘继续上涨一两个小时之后， （注：包含了第一种情况）
15:46 - 15:50
EN: to down trading that starts by the end of the second hour
ZH: 价格会开始震荡、回调
15:50 - 15:51
EN: here it started on the open
ZH: 这一天从一开盘就进入震荡了
15:54 - 15:58
EN: – and there’s a 25% chance that there will be an early reversal.
ZH: 有25%的概率，早盘会反转下跌
16:02 - 16:03
EN: Here’s yesterday.
ZH: 这是昨天的行情
16:03 - 16:05
EN: Ended with climactic selling.
ZH: 抛售高潮一直到收盘
Slide 009
Time: 16:05
Bilingual Transcript
16:06 - 16:07
EN: This is the start of today.
ZH: 这是今天的开盘
16:07 - 16:08
EN: Small gap down.
ZH: 小幅低开
16:08 - 16:12
EN: Yesterday, climactic selling right to the close.
ZH: 昨天抛售高潮一直持续到收盘
16:12 - 16:14
EN: This is the start of today.
ZH: 这是今天的开盘
16:14 - 16:17
EN: Yesterday, strong selling.
ZH: 昨天，剧烈的抛售，高潮
16:16 - 16:17
EN: Climactic.
ZH: 昨天，剧烈的抛售，高潮
16:17 - 16:20
EN: Down, down, and this is today, gap up.
ZH: 下跌、下跌，这是今天的开盘，跳空高开
16:24 - 16:28
EN: Whenever you have strong selling yesterday, climactic selling,
ZH: 每当前一天的抛售非常强势，
16:28 - 16:32
EN: there’s a 50% chance that you’ll get follow-through selling on the open.
ZH: 第2天早盘，50%的概率会有跟随的卖出
16:33 - 16:37
EN: When I say on the open, doesn’t have to be the first bar,
ZH: 早盘并不是仅仅指第1根K线，而是开盘后的两个小时
16:36 - 16:37
EN: but within the first 2 hours.
ZH: 早盘并不是仅仅指第1根K线，而是开盘后的两个小时
16:43 - 16:48
EN: There’s a 75% chance that even with strong selling like this,
ZH: 75%的概率，即使昨天的抛售这么剧烈， （注：同样，包含第一种情况）
16:48 - 16:54
EN: the market is going to trade sideways to up for at least a couple hours,
ZH: 在开盘两个小时以后，市场会横盘或反弹至少两三个小时
16:52 - 16:54
EN: starting by the end of the second hour.
ZH: 在开盘两个小时以后，市场会横盘或反弹至少两三个小时
16:57 - 17:03
EN: This Trading Range began yesterday, at the end of yesterday,
ZH: 这里，从昨天的尾盘就开始震荡了，今天开盘继续震荡
17:01 - 17:03
EN: and it continued on today’s open.
ZH: 这里，从昨天的尾盘就开始震荡了，今天开盘继续震荡
17:06 - 17:10
EN: Finally, there’s a 25% chance of a reversal.
ZH: 最后，早盘有25%的概率反转上涨
17:10 - 17:14
EN: Strong selloff yesterday and then strong rally today.
ZH: 昨天大跌，今天大涨
Slide 010
Time: 17:20
Bilingual Transcript
17:21 - 17:25
EN: We have a strong Buy Climax yesterday, strong bull trend yesterday
ZH: 昨天是强上涨趋势，剧烈的抢购高潮
17:25 - 17:29
EN: - yet on the open today we have a reversal down and it’s a Micro Double Top.
ZH: 然而今天开盘反转下跌了，这里有一个小双顶
17:29 - 17:32
EN: We went down on the first bar, up and down on the second bar.
ZH: 第1根K线下跌，第2根K线先上涨再下跌
17:32 - 17:37
EN: Traders will sell below the low of the first bar
ZH: 空头会在第1根K线的下方，或第2根K线的下方卖出做空
17:35 - 17:42
EN: or below the low of the second bar, hoping that it’s the start
ZH: 空头会在第1根K线的下方，或第2根K线的下方卖出做空 押注今天是一个下降趋势日，从一开盘就形成下降趋势
17:39 - 17:42
EN: of a bear trend day, a trend from the open bear trend.
ZH: 押注今天是一个下降趋势日，从一开盘就形成下降趋势
17:44 - 17:48
EN: If a trader sold below the low of that first bar, he might’ve put a stop
ZH: 如果一个空头在第1根K线的低点下方卖出做空，
17:48 - 17:51
EN: to exit the trade above the high of that first bar,
ZH: 他可能会把止损放在第1根K线的高点上方
17:51 - 17:54
EN: and if he did, he would’ve been stopped out.
ZH: 如果确实这么做的话，他会被止损离场
17:54 - 17:59
EN: But then he could sell again on the close of the second bar
ZH: 但之后他可以在第2根K线的下方、 或第1根K线的低点下方再次入场做空，
17:57 - 17:59
EN: or below the first bar again.
ZH: 但之后他可以在第2根K线的下方、 或第1根K线的低点下方再次入场做空，
18:04 - 18:08
EN: Some traders would not exit their short
ZH: 一些空头不会在那根阴线的上方止损离场， 想一想为什么？
18:06 - 18:08
EN: above the high of that bear bar because think about it.
ZH: 一些空头不会在那根阴线的上方止损离场， 想一想为什么？
18:08 - 18:11
EN: Is that bear bar a good buy signal bar?
ZH: 那根阴线是好的做多信号K线吗？
18:11 - 18:14
EN: Are a lot of bulls going to buy above the high of that bear bar?
ZH: 会有很多多头在那根阴线的高点上方买入吗？
18:14 - 18:17
EN: Probably not, because we have a very big gap up.
ZH: 大概率不会，因为今天有一个巨大的跳空缺口
18:17 - 18:20
EN: Usually when you have a big gap up, the market does not go straight up,
ZH: 通常当市场大幅跳空高开的时候，价格不会直接上涨
18:20 - 18:24
EN: and usually it will not go straight up if the first bar is a big bear bar.
ZH: 尤其当第1根K线是阴线的时候，不会直接上涨
18:24 - 18:29
EN: So, some of the bears who sold below that first bar will use a wider stop.
ZH: 所以，一些在第1根K线下方卖出的空头会使用更宽的止损
18:34 - 18:40
EN: If ever you sell and you get stopped out and then the market
ZH: 如果你做空了，但是止损被打掉， 你总是可以在价格恢复下跌时再次入场做空
18:37 - 18:40
EN: starts to go your way again, you can always sell again.
ZH: 如果你做空了，但是止损被打掉， 你总是可以在价格恢复下跌时再次入场做空
18:45 - 18:49
EN: Big gap up, big bear bar closing on its low.
ZH: 大幅跳空高开，大阴线收在最低
18:49 - 18:51
EN: Possible trend from the open bear trend.
ZH: 很可能是一开盘就形成的下降趋势
18:51 - 18:55
EN: Traders will look for an early high of the day, possibly a reversal down.
ZH: 交易者会押注今天的最高点已经形成，押注下跌波段
18:55 - 18:57
EN: A good swing short.
ZH: 不错的波段做空机会
19:01 - 19:03
EN: Big gap up here, big gap up here.
ZH: 这一天也是大幅跳空高开，和这一天一样
19:03 - 19:06
EN: First bar, big bear bar, and then several bear bars.
ZH: 第一根K线，大阴线，接下来的几根K线也都是阴线
19:06 - 19:09
EN: First bar, bull bar, and then another bull bar.
ZH: 然而这一天，第一根K线是大阳线，而且有跟随的阳线
19:10 - 19:12
EN: Consecutive bull bars, Always In Long.
ZH: 连续的阳线，单边上涨
19:12 - 19:17
EN: When you see consecutive bear bars on a big gap up or a big gap down,
ZH: 大幅跳空高开或低开之后，如果开盘是连续的阴线
19:17 - 19:20
EN: the day is probably not going to be a bull trend day
ZH: 那么当天大概率不会是一个上涨趋势日
19:20 - 19:23
EN: and will probably either be a Trading Range or a bear trend day.
ZH: 更有可能是震荡区间日或下降趋势日
19:23 - 19:29
EN: Likewise, when you see a pair of big bull bars on the open,
ZH: 同样，无论是高开还是低开， 如果开盘是两根大阳线
19:27 - 19:29
EN: whether it’s a gap up or a gap down,
ZH: 同样，无论是高开还是低开， 如果开盘是两根大阳线
19:29 - 19:31
EN: the day is probably not going to be a bear trend day.
ZH: 当天大概率不会是下降趋势日
19:31 - 19:35
EN: It’s probably going to be a Trading Range day or a bull trend day.
ZH: 更有可能是震荡区间日或上涨趋势日
19:39 - 19:40
EN: Consecutive big bull bars.
ZH: 连续的大阳线
19:40 - 19:43
EN: Traders would buy on the close of the follow-through bar.
ZH: 多头会在跟随K线的收盘买入
19:43 - 19:48
EN: They’ll buy the close of the first bar and they’ll buy
ZH: 多头也会在第一根大阳线的收盘买入， 或者在第2根阳线的低点下方挂单买入，
19:46 - 19:50
EN: below that second bull bar, betting that it’s a terrible sell setup
ZH: 多头也会在第一根大阳线的收盘买入， 或者在第2根阳线的低点下方挂单买入， 押注这是非常糟糕的做空机会
19:50 - 19:52
EN: and therefore probably buyers below.
ZH: 所以下方大概率有很多买盘
20:04 - 20:06
EN: Big gap up, bear bars.
ZH: 大幅跳空高开，连续的阴线
20:06 - 20:08
EN: Became a trend from the open bear trend.
ZH: 一开盘就进入了下降趋势
20:08 - 20:13
EN: Big gap up, sideways to the Moving Average, and then the bulls came back.
ZH: 大幅跳空高开，横盘回到均线，然后恢复上涨趋势
20:18 - 20:24
EN: We have consecutive bull bars and then we had 2, 3,
ZH: 连续两根阳线，但接下来是连续2、3、4根阴线， 全都收在最低
20:21 - 20:24
EN: 4 consecutive bear bars closing on their lows.
ZH: 连续两根阳线，但接下来是连续2、3、4根阴线， 全都收在最低
20:25 - 20:31
EN: Some bulls would buy that close, confident that the reversal down
ZH: 一些多头会在它的收盘追涨，押注就算反转下跌， 也最多变成震荡区间，而不是下降趋势
20:28 - 20:31
EN: would lead to a Trading Range and not a bear trend.
ZH: 一些多头会在它的收盘追涨，押注就算反转下跌， 也最多变成震荡区间，而不是下降趋势
20:31 - 20:35
EN: However, early on we have two dojis, especially one with a bear bar.
ZH: 然而，开盘是两个十字星，特别其中一个是小阴线
20:36 - 20:39
EN: A lot of bulls don’t want to buy that far above the average price.
ZH: 很多多头不愿意在离均线这么远的地方追涨
20:39 - 20:41
EN: Here’s the Moving Average.
ZH: 均线在这里
20:41 - 20:42
EN: Hard to see.
ZH: 颜色比较淡
20:42 - 20:43
EN: They’d rather buy the pullback.
ZH: 多头宁愿在回调时买入
20:43 - 20:47
EN: It’s okay to take that buy, but if you do, you have to decide
ZH: 在那里追涨也不是不行，但你必须想清楚
20:47 - 20:51
EN: what to do after you get a bear bar or consecutive bear bars.
ZH: 如果接下来是阴线，甚至连续的阴线，你该怎么办
20:51 - 20:58
EN: The bulls who bought, some would hold, use a wide stop,
ZH: 一些人会使用较宽的止损，继续持有，并且在下方加仓， 尤其是在均线附近加仓
20:55 - 20:58
EN: and scale in lower – especially around the Moving Average,
ZH: 一些人会使用较宽的止损，继续持有，并且在下方加仓， 尤其是在均线附近加仓
20:58 - 21:00
EN: look for a reversal up around the Moving Average.
ZH: 押注价格回调到均线之后会恢复上涨
21:01 - 21:06
EN: Others would get out on the strong close of that bear bar or on the close
ZH: 一些多头在看到大阴线之后会离场，或者在跟随阴线的收盘离场，
21:05 - 21:12
EN: of the follow-through bar, betting that we’re going to go sideways to down
ZH: 一些多头在看到大阴线之后会离场，或者在跟随阴线的收盘离场， 以防市场继续下跌、回调到均线， 甚至可能变成下降趋势日
21:08 - 21:12
EN: to the Moving Average, or that we might be forming a bear trend day.
ZH: 以防市场继续下跌、回调到均线， 甚至可能变成下降趋势日
21:17 - 21:24
EN: Once you get the second strong bear bar, you’ve got to be thinking
ZH: 一旦看到连续两根阴线收在最低 就要考虑到今天是下降趋势日或震荡区间日的可能性
21:21 - 21:24
EN: that the day might be a bear trend day or Trading Range day.
ZH: 就要考虑到今天是下降趋势日或震荡区间日的可能性
21:25 - 21:31
EN: At this point, when you had the 2 bull bars, you were thinking
ZH: 在这里看到两根阳线的时候， 你在想：今天要么是震荡区间日，要么是上涨趋势日
21:28 - 21:31
EN: the day was either going to be a Trading Range day or a bull day.
ZH: 在这里看到两根阳线的时候， 你在想：今天要么是震荡区间日，要么是上涨趋势日
21:31 - 21:33
EN: Once you get the 2 bear bars, you’ve got to be thinking
ZH: 一旦看到两根阴线，就必须改变思路
21:33 - 21:36
EN: that it may be a Trading Range day or a bear day,
ZH: 意识到有可能是震荡区间日或下降趋势日
21:36 - 21:40
EN: and it’s usually better to get out of your longs and reasonable to get short.
ZH: 最好平掉多头仓位；做空也是合理的
21:44 - 21:51
EN: When you have a big gap up – I’ll talk about this later
ZH: 遇到大幅高开的时候，通常会回调到均线， 回调的下跌有可能会很强势
21:47 - 21:51
EN: - you often get a selloff to the Moving Average, and it can be strong.
ZH: 遇到大幅高开的时候，通常会回调到均线， 回调的下跌有可能会很强势
21:51 - 21:56
EN: It often forms a Double Bottom like this at or around the Moving Average,
ZH: 市场经常会回调到均线附近，像这样形成双底，
21:56 - 22:00
EN: or it’ll have three reversals up – one, two, three.
ZH: 或者是3推楔形底——1，2，3
22:00 - 22:04
EN: Therefore, it’s a Wedge bull flag testing the Moving Average.
ZH: 所以它是楔形牛旗、回测均线
22:04 - 22:06
EN: So Double Bottom testing the Moving Average
ZH: 双底牛旗，回测均线
22:06 - 22:09
EN: or a Wedge bull flag testing the Moving Average.
ZH: 或者楔形牛旗、回测均线
22:09 - 22:12
EN: Either one, traders will look to buy the reversal up,
ZH: 不管是哪一种，多头都会在反转上涨时买入做多
22:12 - 22:15
EN: looking for a trend up from the Moving Average.
ZH: 押注价格从均线开始恢复上涨
22:19 - 22:23
EN: We have a Wedge Bottom, a breakout, and now we have a Double Bottom
ZH: 楔形底，突破下降趋势线，然后这个低点
22:23 - 22:26
EN: with the bottom of the Wedge, again around the Moving Average.
ZH: 和楔形底形成了双底，位于均线附近的双底
22:26 - 22:29
EN: Bulls will buy that as well.
ZH: 多头也会在这里买入
22:31 - 22:34
EN: Another reversal up, so another Double Bottom.
ZH: 再次反转上涨，新的双底
22:34 - 22:37
EN: Here we have a Wedge Bottom, a bull breakout.
ZH: 楔形底，向上突破
22:37 - 22:38
EN: Not particularly strong.
ZH: 并不算特别强势 （注：所以还不算大反转结构）
22:38 - 22:43
EN: Stronger bull breakout here testing to a Double Bottom, slightly Higher Low.
ZH: 更强势的多头突破，然后回调测试双底，低点略微抬高
22:43 - 22:44
EN: Good for the bulls.
ZH: 对多头有利
22:44 - 22:46
EN: Again, around the Moving Average.
ZH: 而且，还是在均线附近
22:46 - 22:51
EN: They’ll buy betting that the market is possibly in a Broad Bull Channel.
ZH: 多头会买入，押注市场处于宽上涨通道
22:51 - 22:54
EN: Here it broke into a strong bull trend at the end of the day.
ZH: 接下来市场进入强上涨趋势，一直涨到收盘
22:58 - 23:00
EN: Another buy opportunity.
ZH: 又一个做多机会
23:00 - 23:03
EN: You wait for 3 or 4 consecutive bull bars and take a chance
ZH: 也可以等待连续3~4根阳线再买入
23:03 - 23:08
EN: that it’s becoming a Buy The Close bull trend, which could go a long way.
ZH: 押注市场已经进入买收盘的上涨趋势， 这样的趋势可以持续很久
Slide 011
Time: 23:10
Bilingual Transcript
23:12 - 23:15
EN: All right, what do you see? You see a rally; you see the selloff.
ZH: 好，来看这两张图。 左图在上涨，右图在下跌
23:16 - 23:20
EN: Is this the start of a bull trend, or is it a bull leg in a Trading Range?
ZH: 它是上涨趋势的开始吗？还是只是震荡区间中的上涨波段？
23:21 - 23:25
EN: Is this the start of a bear trend, or is it a bear leg in a Trading Range?
ZH: 它是下降趋势的开始吗？还是只是震荡区间中的下跌波段？
23:25 - 23:27
EN: This is the start of the day here.
ZH: 这是当天的开盘
23:27 - 23:29
EN: Here’s the start of the day here.
ZH: 这是当天的开盘
23:32 - 23:38
EN: 90% of all days have a swing trade that begins within the first 90 minutes.
ZH: 90%的交易日，在开盘后的90分钟内都会开始形成波段
23:43 - 23:46
EN: When you do get what appears to be the start of a swing trade,
ZH: 当你看到好像有个波段开始了的时候
23:46 - 23:50
EN: about half the time it fails and you get an opposite swing trade.
ZH: 大约一半的时间，这个波段会失败，然后反转进入相反方向的波段
23:56 - 24:00
EN: Therefore, whenever I see the market rallying, I’m wondering,
ZH: 因此，每当我看到市场在上涨的时候，我就在想：
24:00 - 24:04
EN: is it a bull trend or is it a bull leg in what will become a Trading Range?
ZH: 它到底是上涨趋势，还是震荡区间中的上涨波段？
24:04 - 24:07
EN: Whenever I see it selling off on the open, I’m wondering,
ZH: 每当我看到开盘下跌的时候，我就在想：
24:07 - 24:12
EN: is it the start of a bear trend or is it a bear leg
ZH: 这个下跌波段到底会变成下降趋势，还是会变成震荡区间？
24:10 - 24:12
EN: in what will become a Trading Range?
ZH: 这个下跌波段到底会变成下降趋势，还是会变成震荡区间？
24:13 - 24:16
EN: If a Trading Range is likely, you have to assume the market
ZH: 如果更有可能是震荡区间，那你就必须假设：
24:16 - 24:20
EN: will go 2 to 3 hours one way and then 2 to 3 hours the other way,
ZH: 市场会先朝着一个方向走两三个小时， 然后反转朝着另一个方向走两三个小时
24:20 - 24:23
EN: and then maybe reverse again at the end of the day.
ZH: 然后也许会在尾盘再次反转
24:28 - 24:31
EN: What do you see here? Really good-looking bull bar,
ZH: 在左图你观察到了什么？这根阳线真的很漂亮
24:31 - 24:33
EN: but look at the follow-through.
ZH: 但是看它的跟随（空头十字星）
24:33 - 24:35
EN: 3, 4 bear bars.
ZH: 然后又是3、4根阴线
24:35 - 24:36
EN: Bad follow-through.
ZH: 跟随很糟糕
24:36 - 24:42
EN: A pair of good bull bars here – not particularly big,
ZH: 两根不错的阳线——没有特别大，但都收在高位—— 然后是一根很大的阴线
24:39 - 24:42
EN: but closing near their highs – and then a very big bear bar.
ZH: 两根不错的阳线——没有特别大，但都收在高位—— 然后是一根很大的阴线
24:42 - 24:46
EN: A pair of bull bars here breaking out above the high of the day,
ZH: 两根阳线，刚突破前期的高点，又没有跟随
24:45 - 24:46
EN: but look at the follow-through.
ZH: 两根阳线，刚突破前期的高点，又没有跟随
24:46 - 24:49
EN: Another pair of bull bars, but look at the follow-through.
ZH: 又是两根阳线，还是没有跟随
24:50 - 24:53
EN: Whenever you see really good-looking bull bars with bad follow-through,
ZH: 当你看到非常漂亮的阳线，但跟随一直很糟糕，
24:54 - 24:57
EN: the rally is more likely a bull leg in what will become a Trading Range.
ZH: 那么这段上涨就更有可能会变成震荡区间
24:57 - 25:04
EN: It’s a bull trend right now, but this bull trend probably
ZH: 尽管现在确实是上涨趋势，但它大概率很快就会变成震荡区间
25:01 - 25:04
EN: is going to be a bull leg in what will be a Trading Range.
ZH: 尽管现在确实是上涨趋势，但它大概率很快就会变成震荡区间
25:07 - 25:12
EN: Trading Range behavior on the way down, but it became a Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 这里有一些反弹（注：连续6根阴线之后才横盘） 然后变成窄下降通道
25:12 - 25:16
EN: Eventually the bulls gave up and we got a Measured Move down.
ZH: 最终多头放弃，跌到了MM目标位
25:18 - 25:21
EN: Bull leg in a Trading Range, bear leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 震荡区间中的上涨波段，震荡区间中的下跌波段
25:21 - 25:24
EN: Bull leg in a Trading Range, might have also been a bull leg in a bull trend.
ZH: 震荡区间中的上涨波段，也有可能继续变成上涨趋势
25:25 - 25:29
EN: Bear leg in a Trading Range, might also be a bear leg in a bear trend.
ZH: 震荡区间中的下跌波段，也有可能继续变成下降趋势
25:29 - 25:33
EN: But through here it was more likely a bear leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 一直到这里，都更有可能是震荡区间中的下跌波段
25:33 - 25:37
EN: Lots of dojis, lots of sideways bars, around a 50% pullback,
ZH: 很多十字星，很多横盘的K线，大约是50%回调
25:37 - 25:40
EN: testing support, testing support, testing support,
ZH: 测试支撑，测试支撑，测试支撑
25:40 - 25:44
EN: and then you got 3 or 4 consecutive bear bars closing on their lows.
ZH: 然后出现连续4根阴线收在最低
25:44 - 25:52
EN: We’re in a breakout, so probably a bear breakout below a bear channel,
ZH: 向下跌破，加速跌破了下降通道——牛旗， 然后跌到了MM目标位
25:49 - 25:52
EN: a bull flag, and we got the Measured Move down.
ZH: 向下跌破，加速跌破了下降通道——牛旗， 然后跌到了MM目标位
25:56 - 25:58
EN: 3 consecutive bear bars on the open.
ZH: 开盘后连续3根阴线
25:59 - 26:00
EN: Decent size bodies.
ZH: 体积较大
26:00 - 26:03
EN: 2 particularly big bear bars closing on their lows.
ZH: 尤其是两根收在最低的大阴线
26:04 - 26:06
EN: Very Tight Bear Channel here.
ZH: 这是很窄的下降通道
26:06 - 26:08
EN: Not a Wedge shape.
ZH: 所以不数3推楔形底
26:08 - 26:13
EN: This is probably either the start of a bear trend or of a Trading Range.
ZH: 这大概率是下降趋势的开始
26:13 - 26:18
EN: The market’s clearly Always In Short, and it’s reasonable to be short hoping
ZH: 市场显然处于单边下跌，所以做空是合理的
26:18 - 26:21
EN: that this is the high of the day and that we’re getting a swing down.
ZH: 押注这就是今天的最高点，现在处于下降波段
26:25 - 26:28
EN: Traders will sell below the first bar, they’ll sell the second close,
ZH: 空头会在第1根阴线下方卖出做空， 也会在第2根阴线的收盘卖出
26:28 - 26:32
EN: they’ll sell the third close, they’ll sell reversals up,
ZH: 在第3根阴线的收盘卖出，在反弹时卖出
26:32 - 26:35
EN: taking a chance that today will be a big bear trend day.
ZH: 押注今天会是一个大的下降趋势日
26:36 - 26:38
EN: 3 consecutive bear bars and then a pause.
ZH: 连续3根阴线，然后暂停
26:39 - 26:42
EN: 4 consecutive bear bars and then a pause.
ZH: 连续4根阴线，然后暂停
26:42 - 26:45
EN: More consecutive trend bars than what we have here.
ZH: 相比左图，这里有更多连续的趋势K线
26:51 - 26:56
EN: Whenever you have a strong selloff on the open lasting an hour or two,
ZH: 每当开盘的强下降趋势持续了一两个小时
26:56 - 26:58
EN: the market often goes sideways for several hours,
ZH: 通常市场会在盘中横盘几个小时
26:58 - 27:03
EN: and then at the end of the day the bulls hope for a Major Trend Reversal up
ZH: 然后在尾盘，多头希望制造大的反转上涨
27:03 - 27:05
EN: and the bears want trend resumption down.
ZH: 空头希望趋势恢复下跌
27:05 - 27:13
EN: There’s usually a buy signal – for example,
ZH: 通常会出现做多信号——比如，这里是低点降低的大反转； 这里有一个双底
27:08 - 27:13
EN: a Lower Low Major Trend Reversal here, a Double Bottom here,
ZH: 通常会出现做多信号——比如，这里是低点降低的大反转； 这里有一个双底
27:13 - 27:15
EN: and there’s also always a Double Top.
ZH: 同时也一定会有双顶 （注：因为是震荡区间，会同时出现顶部和底部结构）
27:16 - 27:18
EN: The bears have a sell signal (the Double Top),
ZH: 空头也会看到做空信号（双顶）
27:18 - 27:25
EN: looking for trend resumption down, and the bulls always have some kind
ZH: 预期下降趋势恢复； 而多头总是能找到某种大反转的结构，希望趋势能反转上涨
27:22 - 27:25
EN: of a Major Trend Reversal looking for trend reversal up.
ZH: 预期下降趋势恢复； 而多头总是能找到某种大反转的结构，希望趋势能反转上涨
27:26 - 27:29
EN: When the trend before is a strong bear trend,
ZH: 如果左边是很强的下降趋势
27:29 - 27:34
EN: even though the probability gets close to 50/50 the more bars
ZH: 尽管震荡了这么久，多空双方突破的概率已经接近50对50
27:33 - 27:39
EN: that you get added, there’s still a slightly higher probability
ZH: 尽管震荡了这么久，多空双方突破的概率已经接近50对50 但趋势恢复下跌的概率总是比反转上涨的概率要略高一些
27:36 - 27:39
EN: of trend resumption down than trend reversal up.
ZH: 但趋势恢复下跌的概率总是比反转上涨的概率要略高一些
27:40 - 27:42
EN: Strong bear trend.
ZH: 强下降趋势
27:42 - 27:46
EN: Sideways to up for about 10 bars, breaking above the bear channel.
ZH: 横盘、反弹了大约10根K线，突破了下降趋势线
27:46 - 27:50
EN: Therefore, you have to be thinking the next leg down might be the final leg
ZH: 所以，必须考虑到这是最后一段下跌的可能性
27:50 - 27:52
EN: and the bulls might get a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 然后多头可能会尝试制造大反转
27:52 - 27:56
EN: However, this selloff is in a very Tight Channel,
ZH: 然而，左边的下降通道非常窄
27:56 - 28:03
EN: and therefore the reversal up is more likely to be minor
ZH: 所以更有可能只是小反转——换句话说， 更有可能变成震荡区间，而不是上涨趋势
27:59 - 28:03
EN: - which means a Trading Range more likely than a bull trend.
ZH: 所以更有可能只是小反转——换句话说， 更有可能变成震荡区间，而不是上涨趋势
28:04 - 28:07
EN: The bulls tried again to get a Double Bottom
ZH: 多头再次尝试从双底反转上涨
28:07 - 28:12
EN: slightly Higher Low Major Trend Reversal, but again, very Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 低点略微抬高的大反转， 但还是一样，左边的下降通道太窄了
28:12 - 28:15
EN: Odds are any reversal up is minor and the market
ZH: 任何上涨大概率都只是小反转
28:15 - 28:18
EN: will either stay sideways or the bear trend will resume.
ZH: 要么继续横盘，要么下降趋势恢复
28:23 - 28:25
EN: Context is important.
ZH: 背景很重要
28:25 - 28:28
EN: I’m always paying attention to what the bars to the left look like.
ZH: 我总是关注左边的K线是什么样的
Slide 012
Time: 28:25
Bilingual Transcript
28:28 - 28:31
EN: I also pay attention to the daily chart.
ZH: 我也关注日线图
28:31 - 28:35
EN: If most of the days are bull days, today’s probably going to be a bull day.
ZH: 如果最近大部分交易日是上涨趋势日，那么今天大概率也是上涨的
28:35 - 28:39
EN: If most of the days over the past week or two are bear days,
ZH: 如果过去的一两周里大部分交易日是下降趋势日
28:39 - 28:41
EN: today will probably be a bear day,
ZH: 那么今天大概率也是下跌的
28:41 - 28:44
EN: and that means that it’ll probably get an early selloff.
ZH: 所以如果开盘上涨，很可能会反转下跌
28:45 - 28:54
EN: If most of the days are doji bars and the market’s in a Tight Trading Range
ZH: 如果最近大多数交易日是十字星，日K线是窄震荡区间， 那么今天很有可能也是十字星
28:49 - 28:54
EN: on the daily chart, chances are today will be a doji day as well,
ZH: 如果最近大多数交易日是十字星，日K线是窄震荡区间， 那么今天很有可能也是十字星
28:54 - 28:59
EN: which means it’ll go one way and then reverse
ZH: 也就是说，如果价格朝着某个方向移动， 它最终会反转，回到开盘价附近
28:56 - 28:59
EN: and go the other way and try to close near the open.
ZH: 也就是说，如果价格朝着某个方向移动， 它最终会反转，回到开盘价附近
28:59 - 29:03
EN: Therefore, in the middle of the day, if it’s far from the open,
ZH: 因此，如果盘中的时候，价格离开盘价非常远
29:03 - 29:08
EN: I’m going to look for a reversal betting
ZH: 我会关注反转的机会，押注市场会回测开盘价
29:06 - 29:08
EN: that the market’s going to get back to the open.
ZH: 我会关注反转的机会，押注市场会回测开盘价
29:09 - 29:12
EN: I always pay attention to how yesterday ended.
ZH: 我总是关注昨天的尾盘
29:12 - 29:21
EN: If yesterday was a strong trend day, 50% chance there’ll be an attempt
ZH: 如果昨天的强趋势一直维持到收盘， 50%的概率，趋势会在今天早盘的头两个小时继续
29:17 - 29:21
EN: at a continuation of that trend in the first 2 hours today.
ZH: 如果昨天的强趋势一直维持到收盘， 50%的概率，趋势会在今天早盘的头两个小时继续
29:21 - 29:30
EN: 75% chance that today will be sideways or go in the opposite direction
ZH: 75%的概率，在开盘两个小时之后， 价格会开始反转或横盘
29:27 - 29:30
EN: for a couple of hours, starting by the end of the second hour.
ZH: 75%的概率，在开盘两个小时之后， 价格会开始反转或横盘
29:30 - 29:34
EN: Only 25% chance today will be an opposite trend.
ZH: 只有25%的概率，今天一开盘就进入相反的趋势
29:38 - 29:39
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
29:39 - 29:41
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
29:41 - 29:45
EN: This is the third of six videos on trading the open.
ZH: 早盘的第3节课，就先讲到这里