al-brooks-course
40B - Entering Late in Trends
Raw transcript and slide notes for 40B - Entering Late in Trends.
Overview
- Slides: 17
- Transcript segments: 315
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课
00:06 - 00:11
EN: This is the second of five videos on entering late in a trend.
ZH: 这是在趋势后期入场的第2节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:13
Bilingual Transcript
00:15 - 00:19
EN: Every bull trend has a final bull trend bar and then a reversal,
ZH: 每个上涨趋势都有最后一根阳线，然后反转下跌
00:20 - 00:25
EN: and that means every bull trend has one close that’s the highest close
ZH: 也就是说，每个上涨趋势都存在一个最高的收盘价
00:25 - 00:28
EN: of the bull trend, and every bear trend after it reverses,
ZH: 同理，每个下降趋势在被反转之后，
00:28 - 00:32
EN: you can look back and you can find the low close of the bear trend.
ZH: 你可以找到这个下降趋势中最低的收盘价
00:32 - 00:34
EN: And those prices are important.
ZH: 这些价格很重要
00:36 - 00:39
EN: When a trend is particularly strong – for example, a bear trend
ZH: 当一个趋势特别强势——以下降趋势为例
00:39 - 00:41
EN: - traders will sell every bear close.
ZH: 交易者会在每根阴线的收盘卖出做空
00:41 - 00:44
EN: As soon as the bar closes, they’ll hit “Sell the Market.”
ZH: 在K线收盘的瞬间，他们就点击“市价卖出”
00:44 - 00:46
EN: The opposite’s true with a bull trend.
ZH: 在上涨趋势中则相反
00:46 - 00:50
EN: I’ll talk a little bit about Buy The Close bull trends as well.
ZH: 我也会讲到买收盘的上涨趋势
00:54 - 00:57
EN: You can see there’s a candlestick chart that I have greyed out,
ZH: 我把蜡烛图淡化了
00:57 - 00:59
EN: and on top of it I have a line chart,
ZH: 上面覆盖了它的线型图
00:59 - 01:02
EN: and a line chart simply pays attention only to the closes.
ZH: 线型图只显示收盘价
01:03 - 01:06
EN: It connects each close with a line.
ZH: 它用一条线把所有的收盘价连起来
Slide 002
Time: 01:05
Bilingual Transcript
01:06 - 01:09
EN: It ignores the low price of the day.
ZH: 它忽略这根K线的最低价（注：以及最高价、开盘价）
01:09 - 01:11
EN: It’s only interested in the closes.
ZH: 它只显示收盘价
01:11 - 01:15
EN: Here, the high of the day is slightly above the high close,
ZH: 这里，当天的最高价，略高于当天最高的5分钟收盘价
01:15 - 01:17
EN: and it’s ignoring the high price of the day.
ZH: 但线型图并不会显示最高价
01:17 - 01:21
EN: It’s only interested in the high close of the day.
ZH: 它只显示当天最高的5分钟收盘价
01:27 - 01:31
EN: A lot of institutional traders only pay attention to line charts,
ZH: 许多机构交易者只看线型图
01:31 - 01:34
EN: and they ignore the highs and lows of the bars.
ZH: 他们不看K线的最高和最低点
01:34 - 01:36
EN: They’re only interested in the closes.
ZH: 他们只对收盘价感兴趣
01:40 - 01:45
EN: For example, the high close of the day is the close of this bull bar,
ZH: 例如，当天（5分钟的K线里）最高的收盘价是这根阳线的收盘价
01:45 - 01:47
EN: and there’s a little tail on top,
ZH: 它又一点点上影线
01:47 - 01:49
EN: and the actual high of the day is slightly above.
ZH: 所以当天实际上的最高价比它略高一些
01:50 - 01:52
EN: This is more obvious down here.
ZH: 下方这里更明显
01:52 - 01:55
EN: The lowest close is this bear bar’s close,
ZH: 最低的收盘价是这根阴线的收盘价
01:55 - 01:57
EN: and the actual low of the day is lower.
ZH: 而当天实际上的最低价更低
01:57 - 02:01
EN: A trader looking at only a line chart does not see that.
ZH: 只看线型图的交易者看不到这个价格
02:01 - 02:03
EN: He only sees the lowest close of the day.
ZH: 他只能看到当天最低的收盘价
02:04 - 02:08
EN: And again, institutional traders, a lot of them only look at line charts,
ZH: 再次强调，很多机构交易者只看线型图
02:08 - 02:11
EN: and they don’t care about the low of the day.
ZH: 他们不在乎当天的最低价
02:11 - 02:12
EN: They only care about the lowest close,
ZH: 他们只在乎最低的收盘价
02:12 - 02:16
EN: and therefore the lowest close is important support.
ZH: 因此最低收盘价是重要的支撑
02:16 - 02:19
EN: They also don’t care about the highest price of the day.
ZH: 他们也不在乎当天的最高价
02:19 - 02:21
EN: All they care about is the highest close,
ZH: 他们只关心最高的收盘价
02:21 - 02:24
EN: and therefore the highest close is resistance.
ZH: 因此最高收盘价是阻力
02:35 - 02:38
EN: If you were to put a dot on the close of every bar
ZH: 如果你在每根K线的收盘价上标记一个点
02:38 - 02:42
EN: and then connect the dots with a line, you would have a line chart,
ZH: 然后用一条线把这些点连接起来，你就得到了一张线型图
02:42 - 02:45
EN: and line chart traders ignore all the other prices.
ZH: 用线型图的交易者忽略所有其他价格
02:46 - 02:51
EN: They’re only interested in one price every 5 minutes
ZH: 每5分钟，他们只关注一个价格—— 每根5分钟K线的最后一个成交价（注：即收盘价）
02:49 - 02:51
EN: - the final price of every 5 minute bar.
ZH: 每5分钟，他们只关注一个价格—— 每根5分钟K线的最后一个成交价（注：即收盘价）
02:55 - 02:56
EN: This is the same chart.
ZH: 这是同一张图
Slide 003
Time: 02:55
Bilingual Transcript
03:00 - 03:02
EN: We have a bear trend and then we’re getting a pullback.
ZH: 下降趋势，然后反弹
03:06 - 03:10
EN: After the reversal, you know this is the final bear trend bar,
ZH: 在反转之后，你可以知道这是下降趋势中的最后一根阴线
03:13 - 03:15
EN: and we have a bull trend and now we’re getting a reversal.
ZH: 然后是上涨趋势，现在开始反转下跌
03:16 - 03:20
EN: At this point, this bull bar is the final bull trend bar.
ZH: 此时，它就是上涨趋势中的最后一根阳线
03:20 - 03:24
EN: If the market goes higher, then we’ll have a different final bull trend bar,
ZH: 如果后面继续上涨，那么就会有新的最后一根阳线
03:24 - 03:28
EN: but at this point this is the final bull trend bar of the day.
ZH: 但目前而言，它就是今天最高的那根阳线
03:33 - 03:36
EN: When you see a bear trend and then you get a reversal,
ZH: 当你看到下降趋势被反转上涨时，
03:36 - 03:39
EN: a lot of beginners get confused and afraid.
ZH: 许多新手会感到困惑和害怕
03:39 - 03:44
EN: Experienced traders view confusion as an opportunity.
ZH: 经验丰富的交易者把困惑看作是机会
03:44 - 03:48
EN: It tells them that the market is no longer doing what it was doing.
ZH: 因为这告诉他们，市场的行为和之前已经不一样了
03:48 - 03:51
EN: It was in a bear trend, and now we’re getting multiple reversals
ZH: 之前是下降趋势，现在却来回反转
03:51 - 03:53
EN: and it’s no longer in a bear trend.
ZH: 所以不再是下降趋势
03:53 - 03:55
EN: It’s in a Trading Range, and they trade differently.
ZH: 而是震荡区间，所以要用不同的方法去交易
03:56 - 03:58
EN: They don’t get upset by it.
ZH: 他们不会因此感到不安
03:58 - 04:02
EN: They just understand what’s going on, and they just modify how they’re trading.
ZH: 他们能够理解发生了什么，并调整自己的交易方式
04:05 - 04:11
EN: Whenever there’s fear or confusion, there is opportunity
ZH: 如果你能够理解发生了什么， 就能够在恐惧和困惑中找到机会
04:09 - 04:11
EN: - if you understand what’s going on.
ZH: 如果你能够理解发生了什么， 就能够在恐惧和困惑中找到机会
Slide 004
Time: 04:15
Bilingual Transcript
04:18 - 04:20
EN: Once you see a bull trend reverse down like this,
ZH: 一旦你看到上涨趋势像这样反转下跌
04:20 - 04:22
EN: it’s easy to find the final bull trend bar,
ZH: 就很容易找到最后一根阳线
04:22 - 04:26
EN: and it’s also easy to find the highest close of the day,
ZH: 也很容易找到当天最高的收盘价
04:26 - 04:28
EN: which is the close of this bull trend bar.
ZH: 也就是这根阳线的收盘价
04:36 - 04:46
EN: Here we have a bear trend, and after it reverses it’s easy to look back
ZH: 下降趋势，在反转之后很容易找到最后一根阴线，就是它
04:43 - 04:46
EN: and find the final bear bar, which is this bear bar,
ZH: 下降趋势，在反转之后很容易找到最后一根阴线，就是它
04:46 - 04:49
EN: and it’s also easy to find the lowest close of the day.
ZH: 也很容易找到当天最低的收盘价
Slide 005
Time: 04:55
Bilingual Transcript
04:59 - 05:02
EN: Every now and then you’ll hear me talk about “noise.”
ZH: 时不时你会听到有人谈论市场的“噪音”
05:02 - 05:12
EN: Noise does not exist, and it’s a term used by, I think,
ZH: 实际上不存在噪音，只不过一些人无法理解市场正在提供的信息， 所以他们用“噪音”这个词
05:07 - 05:12
EN: ignorant people who fail to understand that the market is providing information,
ZH: 实际上不存在噪音，只不过一些人无法理解市场正在提供的信息， 所以他们用“噪音”这个词
05:12 - 05:15
EN: but the information is too small for them to pay attention to it.
ZH: 信息很隐蔽，他们没有注意到
05:15 - 05:18
EN: “Noise” implies things are random.
ZH: “噪音”意味着事情是随机的
05:18 - 05:27
EN: Nothing is random, but oftentimes lots of things happen on a chart
ZH: 没有什么是随机的，只不过很多时候， K线图上发生的事情太小了，不足以让你做出改变
05:23 - 05:27
EN: that are too small for you to modify what you’re doing.
ZH: 没有什么是随机的，只不过很多时候， K线图上发生的事情太小了，不足以让你做出改变
05:27 - 05:30
EN: If you want to call that noise, you can call it noise.
ZH: 你可以说它是噪音，没有问题
05:29 - 05:30
EN: That’s fine.
ZH: 你可以说它是噪音，没有问题
05:30 - 05:35
EN: However, there are computers that are trading all those small reversals,
ZH: 然而，有的计算机程序一直在交易这些小反转
05:35 - 05:37
EN: and it’s not noise to them.
ZH: 对它们而言，这不是噪音
05:37 - 05:38
EN: It’s not random.
ZH: 这不是随机的
05:38 - 05:39
EN: It all has meaning.
ZH: 这些都是有意义的
05:44 - 05:50
EN: Let’s say you look at this and say “Oh, that’s just noise.
ZH: 假设你看着这个说：“哦，这些反转啊，那都只是噪音而已。” 它不是噪音
05:47 - 05:50
EN: Look at all these reversals in here.” It’s not noise,
ZH: 假设你看着这个说：“哦，这些反转啊，那都只是噪音而已。” 它不是噪音
05:50 - 05:54
EN: and you’re making a mistake ignoring what the market is telling you,
ZH: 你忽略了市场正在传递的信息
05:54 - 05:57
EN: and it’s giving you a lot of information through here.
ZH: 这里其实可以看到很多信息
Slide 006
Time: 06:05
Bilingual Transcript
06:06 - 06:10
EN: I want to talk a little bit more about a Sell The Close bear trend
ZH: 接下来我要再讲一下卖收盘的下降趋势
06:10 - 06:12
EN: and what just took place in the chart that I just showed.
ZH: 以及刚才的K线图上到底发生了什么
Slide 007
Time: 06:14
Bilingual Transcript
06:21 - 06:25
EN: When a bear trend is strong, traders are selling for any reason,
ZH: 当下降趋势很强势，交易者会用任何方法卖出做空
06:25 - 06:27
EN: and a lot of traders like to sell the close.
ZH: 很多交易者喜欢在K线收盘卖出
06:27 - 06:29
EN: As soon as the bar closes, they hit “Sell the Market”
ZH: 再K线收盘的瞬间，他们点击“市价卖出”
06:29 - 06:32
EN: and they get filled at the open of the next bar.
ZH: 订单会在下一根K线开盘的时候成交
06:32 - 06:35
EN: I have it shown as the close of this bar.
ZH: 我这里标注的是K线的收盘价
06:35 - 06:38
EN: Some traders sell right before the bar closes
ZH: 如果正好在K线收盘之前下单
06:38 - 06:40
EN: and they get filled right around the close of the bar.
ZH: 订单会在收盘时成交
06:40 - 06:43
EN: And they’ll keep doing it until it’s no longer profitable.
ZH: 他们会一直这样做，直到不再赚钱
06:50 - 06:53
EN: When they enter, they pay attention to the follow-through.
ZH: 入场之后，他们会关注后续的跟随
06:53 - 06:55
EN: Here we have a big tail.
ZH: 这里有很长的下影线
06:55 - 06:59
EN: Most traders would not sell that close, but experienced traders would
ZH: 大多数交易者不会在它的收盘卖出， 但经验丰富的交易者仍然会这么做
06:59 - 07:02
EN: because they’re comfortable managing their trade.
ZH: 因为他们很擅长管理交易
07:02 - 07:05
EN: They know that if it goes up, the reversal will be minor
ZH: 他们知道就算上涨，也只是小反转
07:05 - 07:08
EN: and they can sell more, and the market will pull back
ZH: 他们可以逢高卖出更多，当市场跌回来的时候
07:08 - 07:12
EN: and allow them to get out at their average entry price.
ZH: 他们至少可以在平均成本附近打平离场
07:12 - 07:14
EN: They sell that close, they sell more higher.
ZH: 他们在它的收盘卖出，然后在上方卖出更多
07:14 - 07:16
EN: It comes back below their average price
ZH: 当市场跌回到他们的平均成本下方1个tick
07:16 - 07:18
EN: and they can get out breakeven and they avoid a loss.
ZH: 他们可以打平离场，避免亏损
07:18 - 07:21
EN: On the other hand, if it kept going down, they’d make a profit.
ZH: 反之，如果继续下跌，他们就可以赚钱
07:26 - 07:31
EN: If you did sell that close and you saw this bull bar, what are you thinking?
ZH: 如果你在它的收盘价卖出做空，然后看到了这根阳线， 你会是什么心情？
07:32 - 07:35
EN: Well, a lot of the Sell The Close bears who sold that bar are disappointed.
ZH: 许多卖收盘的空头会感到失望
07:35 - 07:38
EN: They wanted the market to keep going down so they could make a quick profit.
ZH: 他们希望市场继续下跌，让他们赚一笔剥头皮交易
07:39 - 07:41
EN: But this is a disappointment bar.
ZH: 但这是一根失望的K线
07:42 - 07:44
EN: That means the market might be transitioning.
ZH: 这意味着市场可能正在转变
07:44 - 07:52
EN: We might be getting a minor reversal, and the Sell The Close traders
ZH: 可能会有一些反弹，那些卖收盘的空头会关注接下来的几根K线
07:48 - 07:52
EN: then will pay attention to what goes on over the next several bars.
ZH: 可能会有一些反弹，那些卖收盘的空头会关注接下来的几根K线
Slide 008
Time: 07:55
Bilingual Transcript
08:01 - 08:05
EN: This pink line is the low close, and what’s going on here?
ZH: 这条粉红色的线就是最低收盘价，这里发生了什么？
08:06 - 08:08
EN: The market comes down to the low close, goes up.
ZH: 市场回落到这个最低收盘价，然后上涨
08:08 - 08:10
EN: Down to the low close, goes up.
ZH: 回落到最低收盘价，然后上涨
08:10 - 08:12
EN: Down to the low close, goes up.
ZH: 回落到最低收盘价，然后上涨
08:12 - 08:15
EN: Gets near the low close and goes up again.
ZH: 接近最低收盘价，然后再次上涨
08:15 - 08:21
EN: What does that tell you? It tells you that the bears who sold
ZH: 这说明什么？这说明在那个最低收盘价卖出的空头感到很失望
08:18 - 08:21
EN: that low close are sufficiently disappointed
ZH: 这说明什么？这说明在那个最低收盘价卖出的空头感到很失望
08:21 - 08:25
EN: that they’re buying back their shorts at or around that low close.
ZH: 所以他们在这个价格附近买入回补
08:25 - 08:28
EN: They’re no longer confident that the market’s continuing down,
ZH: 他们不再确信市场会继续下跌
08:28 - 08:31
EN: and they’re afraid it’s either going to go sideways or up.
ZH: 他们担心市场要么横盘，要么上涨
08:40 - 08:45
EN: The market’s only falling a tick
ZH: 市场最多跌破最低收盘价一两个ticks，就反转上涨
08:42 - 08:45
EN: or so below that low close and then reversing up.
ZH: 市场最多跌破最低收盘价一两个ticks，就反转上涨
08:45 - 08:47
EN: Reversing up, reversing up.
ZH: 反转上涨，反转上涨
08:47 - 08:50
EN: That means the bears are losing confidence in the bear trend,
ZH: 这意味着空头对下降趋势失去信心
08:50 - 08:52
EN: and they’re buying back their shorts.
ZH: 他们在回补空头仓位
08:53 - 08:57
EN: If the bears are buying, that’s a problem for the bear trend.
ZH: 如果空头在买入，那么下降趋势就出现了问题
08:57 - 08:58
EN: You know the bulls are buying.
ZH: 多头总是在买入的
08:58 - 09:01
EN: They see the same thing, and they’re placing limit orders to buy
ZH: 他们看到同样的情况，然后在那个阴线的收盘价挂限价买单
09:01 - 09:06
EN: that bear close, thinking that maybe it’s the final bear trend bar of the day
ZH: 押注这就是当天最低的阴线
09:06 - 09:09
EN: and maybe it’s the low close, and therefore it’s support.
ZH: 也许这就是今天最低的收盘价，因此它是支撑
09:09 - 09:13
EN: And the bulls place limit orders to buy at that close or a tick or two above,
ZH: 多头在那个收盘价上方一两个ticks的地方挂限价买单
09:13 - 09:17
EN: believing that the bears will give up, try to get out breakeven,
ZH: 押注空头会放弃、打平离场
09:17 - 09:19
EN: and the market will therefore reverse up.
ZH: 因此市场反转上涨
Slide 009
Time: 09:25
Bilingual Transcript
09:37 - 09:43
EN: Remember, the market has to get 1 tick
ZH: 要知道，市场必须跌破那个最低收盘价1个tick， 空头的限价买单才能确保成交、离场
09:40 - 09:43
EN: below that low close for the bears to get out.
ZH: 要知道，市场必须跌破那个最低收盘价1个tick， 空头的限价买单才能确保成交、离场
09:43 - 09:45
EN: If it just gets to that low close,
ZH: 如果只是刚好碰到那个最低的收盘价
09:45 - 09:48
EN: most of the bears will not be able to get out breakeven.
ZH: 大部分空头的订单是无法成交的
09:49 - 09:52
EN: And what took place here? The bears are even more disappointed,
ZH: 这里发生了什么？空头更加失望了
09:52 - 09:58
EN: and the ones who did not get out, thinking that the first reversal up was minor,
ZH: 一些空头认为第1次只是小反弹， 但现在开始急切地想要离场
09:57 - 09:58
EN: now are eager to get out.
ZH: 一些空头认为第1次只是小反弹， 但现在开始急切地想要离场
09:59 - 10:03
EN: What happens? They placed a limit order to get out at that low close,
ZH: 发生了什么？他们在那个最低收盘价挂了限价买单
10:03 - 10:13
EN: and this low did not reach that low close, and therefore the bears who tried
ZH: 这里没有碰到那个收盘价，所以那些尝试打平离场的空头目前都是被套牢的
10:09 - 10:13
EN: to get out over here breakeven at that low close are trapped.
ZH: 这里没有碰到那个收盘价，所以那些尝试打平离场的空头目前都是被套牢的
10:13 - 10:15
EN: And you can see they’re giving up here.
ZH: 可以看到，他们在这里放弃了
10:17 - 10:19
EN: And the bulls see that, and they’re buying as well.
ZH: 多头也看到了这一点，他们也在买入
10:19 - 10:22
EN: They see the bears giving up and they expect the market to go higher.
ZH: 他们看到空头放弃，并预期市场会上涨
10:23 - 10:27
EN: Usually when the market makes repeated attempts to do something
ZH: 通常当市场多次尝试做某事的时候——
10:27 - 10:30
EN: - here, the bears are repeatedly trying to get down to that low close
ZH: 这里，空头多次尝试下跌到那个最低的收盘价
10:30 - 10:34
EN: and they’re unable to do it – here even more so;
ZH: 但他们做不到——在这里更加明显
10:34 - 10:36
EN: they could not even get to the low close
ZH: 甚至无法碰到最低收盘价
10:36 - 10:39
EN: - it then usually tries to do the opposite.
ZH: ——然后市场通常会尝试相反的方向
Slide 010
Time: 10:45
Bilingual Transcript
10:47 - 10:51
EN: Here we’re in a bear trend, and are the bears disappointed?
ZH: 这里市场处于下降趋势，空头失望吗？
10:51 - 10:57
EN: No, they’re selling closes and they’re selling constantly
ZH: 不失望，他们在K线收盘卖出做空， 在K线形成的过程中不断市价卖出
10:55 - 10:57
EN: as the bars are forming.
ZH: 不失望，他们在K线收盘卖出做空， 在K线形成的过程中不断市价卖出
10:57 - 10:59
EN: The market is probably going lower.
ZH: 大概率会进一步下跌
10:59 - 11:00
EN: The bulls are trapped.
ZH: 多头被套牢了
11:00 - 11:05
EN: The bears are confident that the bulls
ZH: 空头确信，之前买入的多头现在绝望地想要离场
11:02 - 11:05
EN: who were long up here are desperate to get out.
ZH: 空头确信，之前买入的多头现在绝望地想要离场
11:09 - 11:12
EN: As a result, the bears are selling aggressively.
ZH: 因此，空头在激进地卖出
11:12 - 11:15
EN: For example, every time a bar is about to close, they sell.
ZH: 例如，当每根K线即将收盘的时候，他们卖出
11:15 - 11:19
EN: As soon as it closes, they sell and they get filled
ZH: 在收盘的瞬间，他们下单，订单在下一根K线开盘时成交
11:18 - 11:19
EN: on the open of the next bar.
ZH: 在收盘的瞬间，他们下单，订单在下一根K线开盘时成交
11:25 - 11:27
EN: But look what takes place over here.
ZH: 但是看这里发生了什么
11:28 - 11:31
EN: We’re getting a lot of bars with tails on the bottom,
ZH: 很多K线的底部有下影线
11:31 - 11:33
EN: and we’re also starting to get some bull bars.
ZH: 也开始出现一些阳线
11:33 - 11:37
EN: The bears are less confident of the market continuing down.
ZH: 空头对市场继续下跌的信心减弱了
11:43 - 11:46
EN: Instead of holding for a swing down, a lot of the bears are scalping.
ZH: 很多空头不再坚定持有，而是开始剥头皮
11:46 - 11:48
EN: It goes down a little bit and then they buy.
ZH: 价格稍微下跌，他们就止盈
11:49 - 11:52
EN: And the bulls see what’s going on as well.
ZH: 多头也看到了这一切
11:52 - 11:54
EN: The bulls now are beginning to buy.
ZH: 所以多头开始买入
11:54 - 11:57
EN: They’re beginning to buy below bars, they’re beginning to buy bear closes,
ZH: 他们开始在K线下方挂限价买单， 他们在阴线的收盘买入
11:57 - 12:00
EN: betting that they should be able to make a scalp,
ZH: 押注应该能做一些剥头皮交易
12:00 - 12:04
EN: that we’ll probably get a minor reversal or possibly even a major reversal.
ZH: 至少会有一些小反弹，甚至会变成大反转
Slide 011
Time: 12:10
Bilingual Transcript
12:12 - 12:14
EN: Let’s say you’re a Sell The Close bear.
ZH: 假设你用卖收盘的方法做空
12:15 - 12:16
EN: You’re making money here.
ZH: 你在这里赚了钱
12:16 - 12:19
EN: Let’s say you choose to sell that close, and then you get this bull bar
ZH: 假设你在它的收盘卖出做空，然后你看到这根阳线
12:20 - 12:22
EN: and you get a bull doji after it.
ZH: 后面又是一个十字星
12:22 - 12:27
EN: What are you thinking? Are you happy or are you disappointed?
ZH: 你是什么感受？是高兴还是失望
12:27 - 12:33
EN: Well, you’re probably disappointed, and you might be afraid
ZH: 你大概率会失望，担心自己会不会买在当天最低的收盘价
12:31 - 12:33
EN: that you might’ve sold the low close of the day
ZH: 你大概率会失望，担心自己会不会买在当天最低的收盘价
12:33 - 12:36
EN: - and in fact, it was the low close of the day.
ZH: ——事实上，它还真的就是当天最低的收盘价
12:42 - 12:45
EN: Once you see this disappointment, you might be thinking,
ZH: 看到这种令人失望的跟随，你可能会想：
12:45 - 12:47
EN: well, maybe it’s a minor reversal.
ZH: 嗯，也许这是一次小反弹
12:47 - 12:51
EN: Maybe we’re pulling back into a Trading Range or a bear flag.
ZH: 会再次下跌进入震荡区间，或变成熊旗
12:51 - 12:53
EN: Possibly we’re reversing.
ZH: 但是也有反转的可能
12:54 - 12:59
EN: However, it’s reasonable to sell that close if you’re an experienced trader
ZH: 然而，如果是一个有经验的交易者， 在它的收盘卖出也是合理的
12:59 - 13:02
EN: because you know the first reversal up probably will be minor.
ZH: 因为你知道第1次上涨大概率只是小反弹
13:02 - 13:05
EN: You can sell that close, sell more higher,
ZH: 你可以在它的收盘卖出，然后逢高卖出更多
13:05 - 13:08
EN: place a limit order to get out breakeven and avoid a loss.
ZH: 然后在平均入场价格挂限价买单，打平离场，避免亏损
13:12 - 13:17
EN: You can use a wide stop, sell the close, scale in higher, rely on your stop,
ZH: 你可以使用宽止损，卖收盘，逢高加仓，依赖止损
13:17 - 13:21
EN: and then get out at the midpoint of your two entries.
ZH: 然后在两次入场的中点离场
13:21 - 13:23
EN: You sell here, maybe sell more here.
ZH: 在这里卖出，在这里卖出更多
13:23 - 13:24
EN: Here’s your average entry price here.
ZH: 这里是你的平均入场价格
13:24 - 13:26
EN: You can get out and avoid a loss.
ZH: 你可以打平离场、避免亏损
13:26 - 13:31
EN: If you’re lucky, it’ll come all the way down below your original entry
ZH: 或者市场一直跌到你的初始入场价格下方1个tick
13:32 - 13:34
EN: and you’ll be able to get out breakeven on your first short
ZH: 你的初始仓位可以打平离场
13:34 - 13:37
EN: and then with a profit on your second short.
ZH: 上方加仓的部分赚钱
13:41 - 13:44
EN: If it does not get down to that low close and reverses up,
ZH: 如果没有下跌到那个最低的收盘价，就反转上涨了
13:44 - 13:46
EN: you can get out on the reverse up.
ZH: 你可以在反转上涨时平仓
13:46 - 13:49
EN: You get a small profit here, a small loss here,
ZH: 这里小赚，这里小亏
13:49 - 13:53
EN: and you end up with a small loss on the trade – which is okay.
ZH: ——最终这笔交易小亏，可以接受
13:55 - 14:01
EN: A lot of the bears who did scale in – selling this close,
ZH: 很多加仓的空头——在它的收盘卖出，然后在上方加仓—— 尝试在那个最低的收盘价离场
13:57 - 14:01
EN: selling more higher, trying to get out at that low close
ZH: 很多加仓的空头——在它的收盘卖出，然后在上方加仓—— 尝试在那个最低的收盘价离场
14:01 - 14:05
EN: - if they see this reversal up they’ll get out and just take the loss.
ZH: 当他们看到市场反转上涨，他们会立刻平仓，接受小亏
14:05 - 14:11
EN: They’re concerned that the market was not able to get down
ZH: 因为他们担心市场无法下跌到那个收盘价， 这说明了什么呢？
14:08 - 14:11
EN: to that low close, and what does that tell them?
ZH: 因为他们担心市场无法下跌到那个收盘价， 这说明了什么呢？
14:11 - 14:13
EN: It tells them that the bears were desperate to get out.
ZH: 说明空头非常急切地想要离场
14:13 - 14:16
EN: They were so eager to buy back their shorts,
ZH: 空头迫切地想要买入回补
14:16 - 14:19
EN: they started placing limit orders above the low close.
ZH: 他们开始把限价买单挂在最低收盘价的上方
14:19 - 14:26
EN: And the bulls knew the bears were in trouble, and the bulls started
ZH: 多头知道空头有麻烦了，所以多头也把限价买单挂在那个收盘价的上方
14:23 - 14:26
EN: to place limit orders above that low close as well.
ZH: 多头知道空头有麻烦了，所以多头也把限价买单挂在那个收盘价的上方
Slide 012
Time: 14:30
Bilingual Transcript
14:32 - 14:36
EN: Had you sold this bear close, would you be disappointed by this bull bar?
ZH: 如果你在这根阴线的收盘卖出做空， 你会对这个阳线感到失望吗？
14:36 - 14:40
EN: Of course you would be, and you’d be even more disappointed by this bar.
ZH: 当然会，而且你会对这根K线更加失望
14:40 - 14:44
EN: So you’d be eager to get out without a loss or with a minimum loss.
ZH: 所以你急切地想要在不亏损，或者只亏一点点钱的情况下离场
14:50 - 14:55
EN: Would you continue to swing trade, hoping for the bear trend to continue?
ZH: 你会继续持有做波段交易，希望下降趋势继续吗？
14:55 - 15:01
EN: Or instead would you try to get out breakeven or maybe scale in higher
ZH: 还是会尝试打平离场？ 又或者逢高加仓，做一笔剥头皮交易？
14:58 - 15:05
EN: and look for a little scalp? Or would you just totally give up
ZH: 还是会尝试打平离场？ 又或者逢高加仓，做一笔剥头皮交易？ 还是会完全放弃盈利的想法，尝试在初始入场价格附近打平离场？
15:02 - 15:05
EN: and try to get out around your original entry price?
ZH: 还是会完全放弃盈利的想法，尝试在初始入场价格附近打平离场？
15:05 - 15:08
EN: The bears who did that were able to do that here.
ZH: 在这里，空头可以打平离场
15:08 - 15:10
EN: They were not able to do that here.
ZH: 但这里就无法成交了
15:14 - 15:18
EN: All of these little tails up around this low close,
ZH: 所有这些小的下影线，都在这个最低的收盘价附近
15:18 - 15:20
EN: and then here at a slightly higher price,
ZH: 到了这里，价格开始抬高
15:20 - 15:24
EN: is telling you that the bear trend traders are giving up.
ZH: 说明空头正在放弃
15:25 - 15:32
EN: And if the bear trend traders are giving up, we’ll probably get
ZH: 如果他们放弃了下降趋势，那么大概率会有两段反弹， 甚至可能变成上涨波段——就像是这样
15:28 - 15:32
EN: at least two legs up, and possibly even a swing up – which we did.
ZH: 如果他们放弃了下降趋势，那么大概率会有两段反弹， 甚至可能变成上涨波段——就像是这样
15:37 - 15:43
EN: And the bulls sense what’s going on, and they’re trying
ZH: 多头察觉到了空头的困境，他们也会在同样的地方买入
15:40 - 15:43
EN: to buy exactly where the bears are trying to buy.
ZH: 多头察觉到了空头的困境，他们也会在同样的地方买入
15:45 - 15:48
EN: For example, for the bears it’s a Double Top bear flag;
ZH: 例如，对于空头来说，这是一个双顶熊旗
15:48 - 15:51
EN: the bulls see that the bears are trying to get out breakeven.
ZH: 多头看到空头正在尝试打平离场
15:51 - 15:58
EN: The bulls will buy at the low of that bar, betting that there’ll be bears
ZH: 多头会在那根K线的低点挂限价买单， 押注会有空头在下方1个tick挂限价单离场
15:56 - 15:58
EN: with limit orders trying to buy just a little bit lower.
ZH: 多头会在那根K线的低点挂限价买单， 押注会有空头在下方1个tick挂限价单离场
15:58 - 16:04
EN: And they correctly picked a bad bear flag and the low of the day.
ZH: 多头找到了一个失败的熊旗，以及当天的最低点
Slide 013
Time: 16:05
Bilingual Transcript
16:11 - 16:13
EN: Strongly Sell The Close here.
ZH: 强势的下跌
16:13 - 16:17
EN: We’re trying to resume down, but that big tail and after these bull bars,
ZH: 空头想要让趋势继续，但在这个长下影线和这些阳线之后，
16:17 - 16:20
EN: this is a lower probability Sell The Close bar.
ZH: 在它的收盘卖出做空，胜率已经不高了
16:20 - 16:23
EN: But the trend could continue down for the rest of the day.
ZH: 当然，下降趋势有可能会继续跌一整天
16:24 - 16:27
EN: Experienced traders will sell that, but you only do that
ZH: 有经验的交易员会在这里卖出做空，
16:27 - 16:34
EN: if you’re comfortable holding through the minor reversal
ZH: 前提是你能够在反弹时坚定持有，并且逢高加仓， 然后正确地管理，最终避免亏损
16:30 - 16:34
EN: and scale in higher, and then managing to get out without a loss.
ZH: 前提是你能够在反弹时坚定持有，并且逢高加仓， 然后正确地管理，最终避免亏损
16:38 - 16:40
EN: We’re starting to get two-sided trading.
ZH: 开始出现很多双向的交易
16:40 - 16:42
EN: Tails, bull bars.
ZH: 下影线，阳线
16:42 - 16:45
EN: Okay to sell, but it requires more management,
ZH: 仍然可以做空，但需要更多的管理能力
16:45 - 16:50
EN: and your shorts selling that close are probably going to be scalps
ZH: 在它的收盘做空，很可能是一笔剥头皮交易，
16:50 - 16:55
EN: or they’ll require scaling in, and then you can avoid a loss.
ZH: 或者需要通过加仓的方式来避免亏损
17:01 - 17:05
EN: For example, if you sell that close you might sell more 1 point higher,
ZH: 例如，假如你在它的收盘做空， 并且在上方1个点、2个点加仓
17:05 - 17:13
EN: 2 points higher with limit orders, and then place a limit order
ZH: 然后在平均入场价格挂限价买单， 当价格跌回来的时候打平离场
17:10 - 17:13
EN: to get out breakeven on your trade
ZH: 然后在平均入场价格挂限价买单， 当价格跌回来的时候打平离场
17:11 - 17:13
EN: when it gets back to your average entry price.
ZH: 然后在平均入场价格挂限价买单， 当价格跌回来的时候打平离场
17:14 - 17:16
EN: And therefore your goal has changed.
ZH: 你的目标发生了变化
17:16 - 17:21
EN: Instead of hoping to make a profit, now you’re simply trying to avoid a loss.
ZH: 不再希望盈利，只是尝试避免亏损
17:28 - 17:31
EN: If you sold this close, sold more 1 point higher,
ZH: 如果你在它的收盘卖出，在上方1个点加仓，
17:31 - 17:34
EN: sold more 2 points higher, this is your average entry price.
ZH: 2个点加仓，你的平均入场价格在这里
17:34 - 17:39
EN: A lot of the bears will try to get out breakeven at their average entry price.
ZH: 很多空头会尝试在平均入场价格打平离场
17:44 - 17:48
EN: I want to talk some about a Buy The Close bull trend.
ZH: 接下来我想讲一讲买收盘的上涨趋势
Slide 014
Time: 17:45
Bilingual Transcript
No transcript segment aligned to this slide.
Slide 015
Time: 17:49
Bilingual Transcript
17:54 - 17:56
EN: Strong reversal.
ZH: 强势反转
17:56 - 17:57
EN: The bears are giving up.
ZH: 空头在放弃
17:58 - 18:01
EN: The bulls sense that, and they’re buying for any reason.
ZH: 多头察觉到了这一点，所以他们会用各种方式买入
18:01 - 18:03
EN: They especially like to buy bull closes.
ZH: 尤其是在K线的收盘买入
18:03 - 18:06
EN: This is a Buy The Close bull trend.
ZH: 这是一个买收盘的上涨趋势
18:10 - 18:13
EN: They’ll keep buying until it’s no longer profitable,
ZH: 他们会一直买收盘，直到不在能够赚钱
18:13 - 18:17
EN: and some will buy this close, they’ll buy that close,
ZH: 多头会在它的收盘，它的收盘，甚至它的收盘买入
18:16 - 18:17
EN: and they’ll even buy that close.
ZH: 多头会在它的收盘，它的收盘，甚至它的收盘买入
18:18 - 18:25
EN: But they’ll only buy closes late in the trend, especially after bear bars,
ZH: 但是在趋势后期买入，尤其在看到阴线之后买入， 前提是他们清楚地知道如何管理自己的交易
18:23 - 18:25
EN: if they know how to manage their trades.
ZH: 但是在趋势后期买入，尤其在看到阴线之后买入， 前提是他们清楚地知道如何管理自己的交易
18:31 - 18:34
EN: Strong enough rally, probably at least a small second leg up
ZH: 足够强势，至少会有小的第2段上涨
18:34 - 18:36
EN: - and they got a second leg up.
ZH: ——确实有第2段上涨
18:36 - 18:38
EN: That’s the minimum objective.
ZH: 这是最低目标
18:42 - 18:46
EN: However, they did not like to see this bear bar right after this bull bar,
ZH: 然而，他们不喜欢阳线之后立刻看到这个阴线
18:46 - 18:49
EN: especially with this bull bar being a little bit bigger than these.
ZH: 特别是这根阳线的体积还很大
18:49 - 18:53
EN: This could be a climactic end to the trend, and therefore there’s a magnet
ZH: 这有可能是趋势末尾的抢购高潮，因此它的起涨点时一个磁铁
18:53 - 18:56
EN: at the low of the Buy Climax and the market might test back down there.
ZH: 市场可能会下跌回测这个低点
18:58 - 19:02
EN: A lot of the bulls who bought that close did not like this bear bar,
ZH: 很多在这个收盘价买入的多头对阴线感到失望
19:02 - 19:05
EN: and they decided that “maybe I should just try to get out breakeven,”
ZH: 他们决定：“也许我应该尝试打平离场”
19:05 - 19:08
EN: and they placed a limit order to get out at that high close.
ZH: 所以他们把限价卖单挂在那个最高的收盘价
19:08 - 19:11
EN: And you can see what happened with this bear bar right here.
ZH: 可以看到，这根阴线在这里发生了什么
19:11 - 19:14
EN: It went 1 tick above that high close and turned down.
ZH: 它超过了那个最高收盘价1个tick，然后调头下跌
19:14 - 19:21
EN: Why’d it do that? Because the Buy The Close bulls here
ZH: 为什么会这样？因为买收盘的多头对这根阴线感到失望
19:18 - 19:21
EN: were disappointed by that bear bar here,
ZH: 为什么会这样？因为买收盘的多头对这根阴线感到失望
19:21 - 19:23
EN: and they placed limit orders to get out breakeven.
ZH: 所以他们在这里挂限价卖单，争取打平离场
19:23 - 19:26
EN: When it went back above their entry price, they sold.
ZH: 当市场涨到他们的入场价上方1个tick时， 订单成功地卖出
19:26 - 19:28
EN: The bulls sold.
ZH: 多头在卖出
19:29 - 19:32
EN: The bears knew the bulls would do that, and they sold as well.
ZH: 空头知道多头在做什么，所以他们也卖出
Slide 016
Time: 19:40
Bilingual Transcript
19:44 - 19:50
EN: Buy Climax, but instead of consecutive bull bars, we’re getting pullbacks.
ZH: 抢购高潮，没有更多连续的阳线，而是开始回调
19:50 - 19:54
EN: The breakout phase now has ended, and this is now a channel phase.
ZH: 突破阶段已经结束，现在进入了通道阶段
19:54 - 19:57
EN: Most bulls would not treat this as Buy The Close.
ZH: 大多数多头不会认为这是买收盘的上涨趋势
19:57 - 20:01
EN: It’s still a bull trend, but they’re going to be cautious buying high closes
ZH: 它仍然是上涨趋势，但他们不会轻易地追涨，
20:01 - 20:04
EN: because we’re starting to get pullbacks.
ZH: 因为开始看到很多回调
20:04 - 20:08
EN: Bull bar, pullback, bull bar, pullback, bull bar, bad follow-through.
ZH: 阳线，回调；阳线，回调；阳线，跟随不好
20:08 - 20:13
EN: And they are therefore concerned that we have a spike and now a channel
ZH: 他们担心，之前是急速上涨，现在是通道
20:13 - 20:16
EN: and soon a Trading Range, and they don’t want to be buying high.
ZH: 那么很快就会变成震荡区间， 所以他们不想追高
20:24 - 20:29
EN: Traders who buy closes watch the behavior around the high close in a bull trend,
ZH: 那些买收盘地多头， 关注市场在上涨趋势中的最高收盘价附近的行为
20:29 - 20:31
EN: and around a low close in a bear trend.
ZH: 关注市场在下降趋势中的最低收盘价附近的行为
20:31 - 20:34
EN: If the market is starting to stall at the high close,
ZH: 如果市场在最高收盘价附近停滞了，
20:34 - 20:39
EN: it might soon be converting into a Trading Range or possibly reversing down.
ZH: 那么它可能很快就会转变成震荡区间，甚至反转下跌
20:40 - 20:43
EN: This is not noise.
ZH: 这不是噪音，而是信息
20:41 - 20:43
EN: This is information.
ZH: 这不是噪音，而是信息
20:43 - 20:45
EN: This is not noise; it’s information.
ZH: 这个不是噪音，这是信息
20:45 - 20:48
EN: It’s telling you what traders are doing.
ZH: 它告诉了你交易者正在做什么
20:52 - 21:00
EN: In this video I talked about the importance of the high and low closes
ZH: 这节课我将到了趋势中最高收盘价和最低收盘价的重要性， 以及为什么它们可能是支撑和阻力
Slide 017
Time: 20:55
Bilingual Transcript
20:57 - 21:00
EN: in trends and how they’re important support and resistance.
ZH: 这节课我将到了趋势中最高收盘价和最低收盘价的重要性， 以及为什么它们可能是支撑和阻力
21:00 - 21:03
EN: I then talked about Sell The Close bear trends,
ZH: 然后我讲到了卖收盘的下降趋势
21:03 - 21:09
EN: and once the bears are disappointed, how do they behave
ZH: 一旦空头感到失望，当市场跌回到那个最低收盘价的时候， 他们会如何操作？
21:07 - 21:09
EN: when the market gets back down to that low close?
ZH: 一旦空头感到失望，当市场跌回到那个最低收盘价的时候， 他们会如何操作？
21:10 - 21:13
EN: And the opposite is true in a Buy The Close bull trend.
ZH: 在买收盘的上涨趋势中也是一样
21:13 - 21:22
EN: If the bulls are starting to get disappointed by the bars
ZH: 如果在大阳线之后，多头对后续的跟随K线感到失望， 他们会尝试打平离场，还是继续持有？趋势还在继续吗？
21:15 - 21:22
EN: after strong bull bars, are they trying to get out breakeven
ZH: 如果在大阳线之后，多头对后续的跟随K线感到失望， 他们会尝试打平离场，还是继续持有？趋势还在继续吗？
21:20 - 21:22
EN: or are they holding, and is the trend continuing?
ZH: 如果在大阳线之后，多头对后续的跟随K线感到失望， 他们会尝试打平离场，还是继续持有？趋势还在继续吗？
21:27 - 21:28
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
21:28 - 21:30
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课
21:30 - 21:34
EN: This is the second of five videos on entering late in trends.
ZH: 在趋势后期入场的第2节课，就先讲到这里