al-brooks-course
46A - Trading Broad Bear Channels
Raw transcript and slide notes for 46A - Trading Broad Bear Channels.
Overview
- Slides: 25
- Transcript segments: 573
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:10
EN: This is the first of five videos on trading Broad Bear Channels.
ZH: 接下来的5节课，我们来讲如何交易宽下降通道
Slide 001
Time: 00:12
Bilingual Transcript
00:14 - 00:18
EN: I want to begin by defining what I mean by a Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 首先我想介绍宽下降通道的定义
00:18 - 00:20
EN: Channels are either broad or tight,
ZH: 通道有宽有窄
00:21 - 00:25
EN: and Broad Bear Channels are not common on 5-minute charts
ZH: 在5分钟图上，很少见到宽下降通道
00:25 - 00:29
EN: because the average 5-minute chart has about 100 bars on the screen,
ZH: 因为屏幕上通常只显示100根K线
00:29 - 00:34
EN: and you usually will not notice a Broad Channel
ZH: 但你需要看几百根5分钟K线，才能看到明显的宽通道结构
00:32 - 00:34
EN: until it’s had several hundred bars.
ZH: 但你需要看几百根5分钟K线，才能看到明显的宽通道结构
00:35 - 00:42
EN: Broad Channels have major highs in them and minor highs in them,
ZH: 宽下降通道中有很多高点，其中一些是次要的， 交易者更关注那些重要的高点
00:40 - 00:42
EN: and the major highs are the important ones.
ZH: 宽下降通道中有很多高点，其中一些是次要的， 交易者更关注那些重要的高点
00:43 - 00:48
EN: As long as the bear trend is making a series of major Lower Highs,
ZH: 如果重要的高点不断降低，那么下降趋势就仍然成立
00:47 - 00:48
EN: it’s still a bear trend.
ZH: 如果重要的高点不断降低，那么下降趋势就仍然成立
Slide 002
Time: 00:50
Bilingual Transcript
00:53 - 00:54
EN: Here are some bear channels.
ZH: 这里有几个下降通道
00:57 - 01:00
EN: When the market is in a very Tight Bear Channel,
ZH: 当市场处于非常窄的下降通道时
01:00 - 01:03
EN: pullbacks are small and do not last many bars.
ZH: 反弹幅度很小，而且只持续几根K线
01:03 - 01:07
EN: Very difficult to make money buying, and therefore you should only look to sell.
ZH: 做多很难赚到钱，因此只能做空
01:10 - 01:12
EN: You can sell with limit orders.
ZH: 你可以使用限价卖单逢高做空
01:12 - 01:14
EN: Sell bull closes forming Lower Highs.
ZH: 可以在阳线的收盘卖出做空，押注高点继续降低
01:14 - 01:16
EN: You can sell below bars with stops.
ZH: 你可以在K线下方用突破卖单入场做空
01:16 - 01:20
EN: You can sell for any reason, but you have to be looking to sell.
ZH: 不管用什么方式，想办法做空就对了
01:22 - 01:26
EN: On the other hand, when a bear trend is forming Lower Highs
ZH: 然而，有的下降趋势虽然高点在降低
01:26 - 01:33
EN: but the pullbacks are lasting many bars and there are many big bull bars
ZH: 但反弹持续很多根K线，而且其中有很多大阳线； 做空当然是好的，因为它毕竟是下降趋势
01:29 - 01:33
EN: within the pullbacks, you have to be selling because it’s still a bear trend;
ZH: 但反弹持续很多根K线，而且其中有很多大阳线； 做空当然是好的，因为它毕竟是下降趋势
01:33 - 01:38
EN: however, a lot of traders will also buy reversals up from prior lows.
ZH: 很多交易者也会在反转上涨时买入做多
01:47 - 01:50
EN: Bulls are buying in a bear trend.
ZH: 在下降趋势中做多，只能是剥头皮交易
01:49 - 01:50
EN: They should only be scalping.
ZH: 在下降趋势中做多，只能是剥头皮交易
01:50 - 01:57
EN: Bears are selling in a Broad Bear Channel (a bear trend),
ZH: 在宽下降通道中做空，可以做波段交易，也可以做剥头皮
01:54 - 01:57
EN: so they can swing, or they can scalp.
ZH: 在宽下降通道中做空，可以做波段交易，也可以做剥头皮
01:57 - 02:00
EN: Broad Channels have a lot of time in Trading Ranges,
ZH: 宽通道中有很多震荡区间
02:00 - 02:05
EN: and therefore a lot of traders prefer just to buy low, sell high, and scalp.
ZH: 所以很多交易者喜欢低买、高卖，剥头皮赚快钱
02:15 - 02:22
EN: Whenever a market’s in a Trading Range and you really cannot discern whether
ZH: 每当市场有很多震荡区间的特征，让人分不清是否有趋势
02:18 - 02:22
EN: or not it’s in a trend in addition to the Trading Range,
ZH: 每当市场有很多震荡区间的特征，让人分不清是否有趋势
02:22 - 02:25
EN: traders will look to buy low, sell high, and scalp,
ZH: 交易者就会低买、高卖，剥头皮
02:25 - 02:27
EN: and if the legs up and down are big enough,
ZH: 如果上涨和下跌的波段足够大
02:27 - 02:30
EN: they’ll sometimes swing part of their position.
ZH: 他们也会留一部分头寸做波段
02:32 - 02:38
EN: You sell reversals down from rallies and you buy reversals up from selloffs.
ZH: 从高位反转下跌时做空，从低位反转上涨时做多
Slide 003
Time: 02:40
Bilingual Transcript
02:45 - 02:48
EN: A Broad Bear Channel is still a bear trend,
ZH: 宽下降通道仍然是下降趋势
02:48 - 02:52
EN: and therefore traders find it easier to make money selling rallies.
ZH: 因此在反弹时做空更容易赚到钱
02:57 - 03:01
EN: Risk/reward tends to be better, and the probability is higher.
ZH: 盈亏比往往更好，而且胜率也更高
03:01 - 03:04
EN: The probability is higher that you’re going to make new lows,
ZH: 继续下跌创新低的概率更高
03:04 - 03:09
EN: and the risk of buying here with a stop down here versus selling here
ZH: 在这里买入，止损放在它的下方； 在这里做空，止损放在它的上方
03:09 - 03:11
EN: with a stop up here is about the same,
ZH: 两者的风险差不多大
03:11 - 03:14
EN: but the probability is greater for the bears,
ZH: 但做空的胜率更高
03:14 - 03:18
EN: and the reward is greater as well because we’re probably going below that low.
ZH: 潜在利润也更大（因为很可能会跌破前期的低点）
03:22 - 03:26
EN: Trading Range has legs up, it has legs down, has legs up, legs down.
ZH: 震荡区间——上涨波段，下跌波段，上涨波段，下跌波段
03:26 - 03:28
EN: This is also a Broad Bull Channel.
ZH: 它也是一个宽上涨通道
03:28 - 03:30
EN: It has a Higher High and a Higher Low.
ZH: 高点抬高，低点抬高
03:30 - 03:34
EN: But during most of the time here, it’s simply a Trading Range.
ZH: 但大部分时间里，基本只是在震荡
Slide 004
Time: 03:40
Bilingual Transcript
03:42 - 03:45
EN: Whenever the market’s in any kind of a Broad Channel,
ZH: 每当市场处于某种宽通道时，
03:45 - 03:48
EN: most of the bars are also in a Trading Range.
ZH: 大多数K线也都处于震荡区间内
03:48 - 03:52
EN: Here we have a Broad Bear Channel, and most of the bars are also in Trading Ranges.
ZH: 这是一个宽下降通道，大部分K线都在震荡
03:52 - 03:56
EN: Small Trading Ranges sometimes nested inside of bigger Trading Ranges.
ZH: 小区间嵌套在大区间里面
03:59 - 04:01
EN: This is a Trading Range attempt.
ZH: 这是一个震荡区间
04:01 - 04:04
EN: Here’s another Trading Range attempt, and another one as well.
ZH: 下跌之后进入新的震荡区间，还有它也是
04:11 - 04:15
EN: Trading Ranges often have strong swings up and down – strong bull breakout,
ZH: 震荡区间里经常有强势的上涨和下跌波段——强势的多头突破
04:15 - 04:20
EN: strong bull breakout, big bear reversal, big selloff down here
ZH: 强势的多头突破，剧烈的反转下跌，这里有剧烈的抛售
04:20 - 04:23
EN: - and there’re often channels within Trading Ranges.
ZH: ——震荡区间中也有很多通道
04:23 - 04:26
EN: We have a bear channel here with Lower Highs.
ZH: 这里有一个高点降低的下降通道
04:26 - 04:28
EN: We have a bull channel here with Higher Lows.
ZH: 这里有一个低点抬高的上涨通道
04:30 - 04:34
EN: Bear channel there, and Broad Bull Channel there.
ZH: 那里的下降通道，这里的宽上涨通道
04:40 - 04:46
EN: This is a 5-minute chart of the Emini, and you can see it begins
ZH: 这是ES的5分钟K线图，价格从左上角跌到右下角
Slide 005
Time: 04:40
Bilingual Transcript
04:43 - 04:46
EN: in the upper left and it continues down to the lower right,
ZH: 这是ES的5分钟K线图，价格从左上角跌到右下角
04:46 - 04:48
EN: and therefore it’s a bear channel.
ZH: 所以它是一个下降通道
04:49 - 04:53
EN: But within the bear channel there are legs up that sometimes have 20 or 30 bars,
ZH: 但在下降通道内，偶尔有持续了20~30根K线的上涨波段
04:53 - 04:55
EN: and the market is sometimes Always In Long,
ZH: 甚至有时处于单边上涨
04:55 - 05:02
EN: and therefore there are times when it makes sense to be trading on the long side,
ZH: 所以有时候做多也是合理的，尽管总体是下降趋势
05:00 - 05:02
EN: even though it’s a bear trend.
ZH: 所以有时候做多也是合理的，尽管总体是下降趋势
05:03 - 05:06
EN: Now, this chart has several hundred bars on it.
ZH: 现在屏幕上有几百根K线
05:06 - 05:09
EN: When I’m trading, I’m only looking at about 100 bars.
ZH: 当我交易时，我只看大约100根K线
05:09 - 05:11
EN: Therefore, I’m not going to be trading this.
ZH: 所以我不会按照宽通道来交易它
05:11 - 05:13
EN: If I’m going to be trading all of these bars,
ZH: 如果我想按照宽下降通道来交易
05:13 - 05:17
EN: I’m going to be trading them on some other timeframe chart
ZH: 我会切换到更高的时间周期
05:17 - 05:20
EN: where all of these add up to maybe 100 bars.
ZH: 用大约100根K线来显示这段行情
05:20 - 05:22
EN: For example, here’s the 30-minute chart.
ZH: 比如，上方的这个小图是30分钟K线
05:22 - 05:27
EN: You could sell here, and the market stayed in a relatively Tight Channel,
ZH: 在这里做空之后，市场在相对较窄的通道中下跌
05:27 - 05:29
EN: and you could hold short the entire time.
ZH: 你可以一直持有
05:30 - 05:34
EN: If I’m trading these same bars here on the 5-minute chart,
ZH: 如果我在5分钟K线图上交易
05:34 - 05:40
EN: that’s not how I’m going to trade it because there are times when the market
ZH: 我就不会一直做空，因为有时市场在单边上涨， 所以我会看情况选择做多或做空
05:37 - 05:40
EN: is Always In Long, so I’m going to be buying and selling.
ZH: 我就不会一直做空，因为有时市场在单边上涨， 所以我会看情况选择做多或做空
05:40 - 05:43
EN: I’m only going to be looking at 100 bars at a time.
ZH: 在交易时我只看过去的100根K线
05:43 - 05:47
EN: For example, this is about 100 bars, and during this 100 bars there are times
ZH: 例如，这里有大约100根K线，在这期间
05:47 - 05:51
EN: when I’m going to be buying, and other times when I’m going to be selling.
ZH: 有的时候我会做多，有时我会做空
05:55 - 05:56
EN: Whenever you’re trading,
ZH: 当你交易的时候，
05:56 - 06:01
EN: you should only be looking at 100 bars on the screen, maybe 150 bars.
ZH: 看100根K线就够了，最多150根K线
06:01 - 06:03
EN: You trade the bars that are in front of you.
ZH: 根据目前的价格行为进行交易
06:03 - 06:09
EN: However, to see a Broad Bear Channel, you have to look at 200 or 300 bars
ZH: 然而，要看到宽下降通道的全貌，你必须要看200~300根K线
06:09 - 06:15
EN: because you usually need at least three legs up and down to conclude
ZH: 因为通常需要至少三个上涨和下跌的波段， 才能确定它是宽下降通道
06:13 - 06:15
EN: that it’s a Broad Bear Channel,
ZH: 因为通常需要至少三个上涨和下跌的波段， 才能确定它是宽下降通道
06:15 - 06:19
EN: and several of the legs will have 10 or 20 or more bars.
ZH: 其中有的波段会持续至少20根K线
06:19 - 06:24
EN: That means you often have to look at 200 to 300 bars
ZH: 所以往往需要200~300根K线，才能看到宽下降通道的结构
06:22 - 06:24
EN: to see the Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 所以往往需要200~300根K线，才能看到宽下降通道的结构
06:37 - 06:43
EN: If your intention is to simply sell and hold short through all of these rallies,
ZH: 如果你想做空，并且在这些反弹中坚定持有，
06:43 - 06:46
EN: then you’re not trading it on the 5-minute chart.
ZH: 那么就不要看5分钟K线图
06:46 - 06:49
EN: You need to be trading it on the next higher timeframe chart.
ZH: 看更高时间周期的K线图会更好
06:49 - 06:53
EN: On a 5-minute chart you’re only going to be looking at 100 bars,
ZH: 在5分钟K线图上，根据过去的100根K线交易就可以了
06:53 - 06:57
EN: and you’re not going to be holding short when the market becomes Always In Long.
ZH: 那么在市场单边上涨的时候，就没有必要继续持有空头头寸
06:58 - 07:03
EN: You’ll see this throughout all of the videos on Broad Channels.
ZH: 在所有讲解宽通道的视频中，都会提到这一点
07:03 - 07:07
EN: Many of the charts have 300 bars, 500 bars, or even 1,000 bars.
ZH: 许多K线图有300根K线、500根K线，甚至1000根K线
07:07 - 07:13
EN: I have to put that many bars on the screen
ZH: 为了让你们看到宽通道的全貌，我必须展示这么多K线
07:10 - 07:13
EN: to illustrate the Broad Channels, up or down.
ZH: 为了让你们看到宽通道的全貌，我必须展示这么多K线
07:13 - 07:16
EN: However, that’s not how I’m going to trade.
ZH: 但我不会按照它来交易
07:16 - 07:23
EN: I’m going to be trading 100 bars at a time, and sometimes those 100 bars are up,
ZH: 交易时我只看100根K线，如果市场在上涨，我就顺势买入做多
07:21 - 07:23
EN: and I’ll be buying as it’s going up.
ZH: 交易时我只看100根K线，如果市场在上涨，我就顺势买入做多
07:23 - 07:30
EN: If I want to be trading it as a Broad Bear Channel – for example,
ZH: 如果我想按照宽通道来交易—— 做空之后无视反弹、坚定持有
07:27 - 07:30
EN: selling and holding through all of these rallies
ZH: 如果我想按照宽通道来交易—— 做空之后无视反弹、坚定持有
07:30 - 07:32
EN: - I’m not going to be looking at this chart.
ZH: 我就不会看5分钟的周期
07:32 - 07:39
EN: I’ll be looking at some higher timeframe chart where the Broad Bear Channel
ZH: 我会切换到更大的时间周期， 在那个周期上，5分钟的宽通道变成相对较窄的通道
07:36 - 07:39
EN: from the 5-minute chart is a Tight Bear Channel,
ZH: 我会切换到更大的时间周期， 在那个周期上，5分钟的宽通道变成相对较窄的通道
07:39 - 07:42
EN: so I can sell and just hold all the way down.
ZH: 更方便我做空之后一路持有
Slide 006
Time: 07:45
Bilingual Transcript
07:46 - 07:49
EN: The market is in a bear trend.
ZH: 市场处于下降趋势
07:49 - 07:52
EN: It begins in the upper left, goes to the lower right,
ZH: 从左上角，跌到右下角
07:52 - 07:56
EN: and along the way it’s forming Lower Lows and Lower Highs.
ZH: 途中低点和高点都在降低
07:56 - 07:58
EN: It’s getting some Higher Highs.
ZH: 有一些高点抬高了——
07:58 - 08:00
EN: It’s going above minor highs along the way,
ZH: 有一些次要的高点被突破了
08:00 - 08:03
EN: but it’s forming a series of major Lower Highs.
ZH: 但重要的高点一直在降低
08:03 - 08:08
EN: A major Lower High is a high that has a very strong selloff, usually to a new low.
ZH: 如果强势下跌，最好创新低，那么这个起跌点就变成了重要的高点
08:08 - 08:11
EN: For example, this is a major Lower High.
ZH: 例如，这是一个重要高点
08:11 - 08:13
EN: This is a major Lower High.
ZH: 这是一个重要高点
08:17 - 08:18
EN: Broad Channel.
ZH: 宽通道
08:18 - 08:22
EN: Most of the bars are also in one or more Trading Ranges.
ZH: 大多数K线也处于一个或多个震荡区间内
08:25 - 08:28
EN: For example, if you only were looking at this part of the chart,
ZH: 例如，如果你只看K线图的这一部分
08:28 - 08:29
EN: you have a Higher High here.
ZH: 这里高点抬高了
08:29 - 08:31
EN: You have a Lower Low here.
ZH: 但低点降低
08:31 - 08:34
EN: Expanding Triangle, and then you have a Higher Low here.
ZH: 所以是扩张三角形； 这里低点又抬高了
08:34 - 08:35
EN: It looks like a Trading Range.
ZH: 看起来像是震荡区间
08:35 - 08:39
EN: It is a Trading Range, but it’s also part of a Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 它确实是震荡区间，但也是宽下降通道的一部分
08:41 - 08:42
EN: Another Trading Range.
ZH: 另一个震荡区间
08:46 - 08:50
EN: Within big Trading Ranges, there are usually smaller ranges.
ZH: 在大区间内，往往嵌套着小区间
08:50 - 08:55
EN: For example, here’s a Head and Shoulders Bottom within this bigger Trading Range.
ZH: 比如这里有一个所谓的“头肩底”（复习：头肩底的本质是区间，所以大部分突破是失败的） 外面是一个更大的震荡区间
09:00 - 09:09
EN: Whenever the market is in a section that looks like it’s dominated
ZH: 每当市场由震荡的价格行为主导， 交易者就会按照震荡区间来交易
09:05 - 09:09
EN: by Trading Range price action, traders tend to trade it like a Trading Range
ZH: 每当市场由震荡的价格行为主导， 交易者就会按照震荡区间来交易
09:09 - 09:12
EN: and pay less attention to the Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 不会太关注这个宽下降通道
09:12 - 09:16
EN: When the market’s doing this, traders are buying low, selling high, scalping.
ZH: 在这种行情中，交易者低买、高卖、剥头皮
09:16 - 09:20
EN: Same with here, even though it’s also still in a Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 这里也是一样，尽管总体来看是一个宽下降通道
09:20 - 09:24
EN: When traders are trading, they’re not looking at 300 bars like this.
ZH: 交易的时候他们不会看300根K线这么多
09:24 - 09:28
EN: They’re looking at 100 bars – day traders, at least
ZH: 他们只看100根K线——至少日内交易者是这样
09:28 - 09:31
EN: - and they’re trading the day or the session in front of them,
ZH: 根据当天的价格行为交易
09:31 - 09:34
EN: and they’re not worrying about the sessions before or after.
ZH: 不会纠结很早以前发生了什么
Slide 007
Time: 09:36
Bilingual Transcript
09:37 - 09:39
EN: It’s the same channel that I just showed you,
ZH: 这就是刚刚的通道
09:39 - 09:41
EN: but now I have it drawn as a line chart.
ZH: 现在我用线形图来展示它
09:41 - 09:43
EN: You can see it’s a bear channel.
ZH: 可以看到这是一个下降通道
09:47 - 09:51
EN: A Broad Bear Channel is simply a Trading Range that is tilted slightly down.
ZH: 宽下降通道就是略微向下倾斜的震荡区间
09:52 - 09:56
EN: You can see it’s basically a Trading Range that has a little tilt to it.
ZH: 基本上就是一个震荡区间，只是稍微有点歪
10:01 - 10:05
EN: It has deep pullbacks, and the more it looks like a Trading Range,
ZH: 中间有大幅的反弹； 它看起来越像震荡区间
10:05 - 10:08
EN: the more traders tend to trade it like a Trading Range.
ZH: 越多的交易者就会按照震荡区间来交易
10:08 - 10:10
EN: They ignore the minimum bear trend.
ZH: 他们会忽略这个轻微的下降趋势
10:10 - 10:14
EN: In this particular case, before I tilted it to horizontal,
ZH: 在我把图片旋转之前，
10:14 - 10:20
EN: it had a minimum slope going down, and most traders would rather trade it
ZH: 市场有一点点下跌的坡度， 大多数交易者更愿意按照震荡区间来交易它——
10:19 - 10:22
EN: like a Trading Range – buy low, sell high, and scalp.
ZH: 市场有一点点下跌的坡度， 大多数交易者更愿意按照震荡区间来交易它—— 低买、高卖、剥头皮
10:22 - 10:27
EN: If a Broad Bear Channel is steeper down, they’ll tend to swing trade more.
ZH: 如果是更加陡峭的宽下降通道， 那么交易者就更倾向于做波段交易
Slide 008
Time: 10:30
Bilingual Transcript
10:34 - 10:42
EN: Let me talk about some of the features that I look for when I’m deciding
ZH: 接下来我想讲一讲，在我决定是否只做空，还是做多做空都可以之前， 我会关注哪些特征
10:38 - 10:42
EN: whether I should only sell or if I should both buy and sell.
ZH: 接下来我想讲一讲，在我决定是否只做空，还是做多做空都可以之前， 我会关注哪些特征
10:47 - 10:55
EN: Unlike a Tight Bear Channel, if you’re starting to get pullbacks
ZH: 和窄下降通道不同，如果反弹持续5根或更多K线—— 很多反弹都持续至少5根K线
10:50 - 10:55
EN: that last 5 or more bars – and a lot of the pullbacks last 5 or more bars
ZH: 和窄下降通道不同，如果反弹持续5根或更多K线—— 很多反弹都持续至少5根K线
10:55 - 10:58
EN: - chances are the channel is going to be broad.
ZH: 那么大概率是一个宽通道
11:05 - 11:07
EN: Also, I look at the size of the pullbacks.
ZH: 另外，我会观察反弹的幅度
11:07 - 11:11
EN: An average scalp, the smallest scalp in the Emini is 1 point.
ZH: 平均来说，ES中剥头皮的最小目标是1个点
11:11 - 11:19
EN: If you’re looking at a 5-minute chart and a lot of the pullbacks
ZH: 如果在5分钟K线图上，很多反弹的幅度至少是剥头皮目标的3倍
11:15 - 11:19
EN: are averaging more than three times the size of a minimum scalp
ZH: 如果在5分钟K线图上，很多反弹的幅度至少是剥头皮目标的3倍
11:19 - 11:20
EN: - in other words, 3 points or more
ZH: ——也就是至少3个点
11:20 - 11:24
EN: - then the market is probably not in a strong bear trend.
ZH: 说明这个下降趋势不怎么强势
11:24 - 11:28
EN: It’s probably either in a Trading Range or a Broad Bear Channel,
ZH: 很可能要么是震荡区间，要么是宽下降通道
11:28 - 11:30
EN: in which case you can both buy and sell.
ZH: 在这样的行情里，做多做空都是可以的
11:35 - 11:40
EN: I pay attention to the size of the bars,
ZH: 我会拿波段的幅度和K线的平均大小做比较
11:37 - 11:40
EN: and the size of the legs compared to the bars.
ZH: 我会拿波段的幅度和K线的平均大小做比较
11:40 - 11:45
EN: In this particular swing, the average bar is maybe 8 to 10 ticks tall,
ZH: 在这个下跌波段中，K线的平均大小是8~10个ticks
11:45 - 11:49
EN: and if the legs are two to three times the size of an average bar,
ZH: 如果波段幅度是K线平均大小的两到三倍
11:49 - 11:52
EN: the channel is probably broad rather than tight.
ZH: 那么更有可能是宽通道
11:52 - 11:55
EN: That means you can both buy and sell.
ZH: 这意味着做多做空都有机会赚钱
Slide 009
Time: 12:00
Bilingual Transcript
12:02 - 12:08
EN: Often when the market’s in a broad bear trend,
ZH: 在宽下降通道里，有时候市场实际上在单边上涨
12:04 - 12:08
EN: there are times that it’s actually Always In Long.
ZH: 在宽下降通道里，有时候市场实际上在单边上涨
12:09 - 12:13
EN: Here and here, it’s still part of a broad bear trend,
ZH: 比如这里和这里，它们仍然只是宽下降趋势的一部分
12:13 - 12:18
EN: but there are times when it’s Always In Long
ZH: 但在这种单边上涨的时候，做多赚钱更容易一些
12:16 - 12:18
EN: and it’s easier to make money buying.
ZH: 但在这种单边上涨的时候，做多赚钱更容易一些
12:18 - 12:19
EN: Very strong rally.
ZH: 非常强势的反弹
12:19 - 12:22
EN: Probably going to form a Higher Low and get a second leg up.
ZH: 很可能在回调之后有第2段上涨
12:22 - 12:26
EN: But the highs are still below the major Lower Highs,
ZH: 但它仍然未能突破前期的重要高点
12:26 - 12:30
EN: and this is a strong bull rally in a Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 它只是宽下降通道中的一次强势反弹
12:34 - 12:37
EN: Pullbacks are often more than 50%,
ZH: 反弹幅度经常超过50%
12:37 - 12:41
EN: and sometimes they’re close to 100% of the height of the prior selloff.
ZH: 甚至可能接近左边下跌幅度的100%
12:41 - 12:47
EN: Here’s a selloff, and this pullback
ZH: 这段下跌之后，反弹幅度远远超过了50%
12:43 - 12:47
EN: was well above 50% of the size of the selloff.
ZH: 这段下跌之后，反弹幅度远远超过了50%
12:49 - 12:53
EN: This pullback has almost totally retraced this leg down,
ZH: 这里的反弹几乎完全把左边的跌幅涨回去了
12:53 - 12:57
EN: yet it still formed a Lower High and it led to a Lower Low.
ZH: 但高点仍然降低了，并且之后下跌创新低
12:59 - 13:05
EN: 76% pullback, and this is an 86% pullback,
ZH: 反弹了76%，这里反弹了86%
13:05 - 13:09
EN: but it’s still a Lower High in a Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 但宽下降通道中的高点仍然在不断降低
13:13 - 13:16
EN: Bears and bulls can make money using stop entries.
ZH: 空头和多头都可以通过突破单入场赚钱
13:16 - 13:21
EN: Bears obviously can make money with stops in a Broad Bear Channel
ZH: 空头当然可以用突破卖单入场做空赚钱，因为它是下降趋势；
13:20 - 13:23
EN: because it’s a bear trend, but a lot of times bulls can make money
ZH: 空头当然可以用突破卖单入场做空赚钱，因为它是下降趋势； 但很多时候，当价格从前期低点下方反转上涨时，
13:23 - 13:29
EN: buying reversals up from prior lows with good buy signal bars,
ZH: 尤其是有小双底的话， 多头可以在做多信号K线上方，用突破买单做多赚钱
13:27 - 13:29
EN: especially if there’s a Micro Double Bottom.
ZH: 尤其是有小双底的话， 多头可以在做多信号K线上方，用突破买单做多赚钱
13:29 - 13:32
EN: We went down and we have a bull bar here, so we went up.
ZH: 下跌之后，这根阳线反弹
13:32 - 13:36
EN: We have another bear bar, so down again, and then another bull bar.
ZH: 再次下跌，又有一根阳线
13:36 - 13:37
EN: So then we have a Micro Double Bottom.
ZH: 所以这是一个小双底
13:37 - 13:42
EN: Bulls will buy on a stop, and because the channel is broad,
ZH: 多头在它的上方买入做多，因为通道足够宽
13:42 - 13:47
EN: the legs up are high enough so that bulls can make money entering with stop orders.
ZH: 上涨波段的幅度足够大，所以用突破买单做多也能赚钱
Slide 010
Time: 13:50
Bilingual Transcript
13:52 - 13:56
EN: Usually pullbacks overlap breakout points.
ZH: 往往能反弹到突破点的上方
13:57 - 14:01
EN: For example, the market broke below this low,
ZH: 例如，市场跌破了这个低点
14:01 - 14:04
EN: so this low is a breakout point, and here’s the top of the pullback.
ZH: 所以这个低点就变成了突破点；反弹到了它的上方
14:07 - 14:09
EN: These are a series of breakout points and pullbacks.
ZH: 这些都是跌破之后的反弹
14:09 - 14:12
EN: The market broke below this low, so this is a breakout point,
ZH: 市场跌破了这个低点，它变成了突破点
14:12 - 14:14
EN: and here’s the top of the pullback.
ZH: 反弹到了它的上方
14:14 - 14:16
EN: That means this is a stairs pattern,
ZH: 所以这是阶梯下跌的模式
14:16 - 14:19
EN: and when the market is forming a stairs pattern,
ZH: 当市场处于阶梯模式时
14:19 - 14:23
EN: bulls can make money buying at and below prior lows.
ZH: 多头可以在前期低点及其下方买入赚钱
14:23 - 14:28
EN: When bulls can make money in a bear trend, the bear trend is not all that strong.
ZH: 如果多头能够在下降趋势中（较为轻松地赚钱），说明下降趋势并不是很强势
14:28 - 14:37
EN: It’s usually a Broad Bear Channel, and a Broad Bear Channel usually
ZH: 通常是一个宽下降通道，而宽通道中往往有很多震荡区间的特征
14:34 - 14:37
EN: has a lot of Trading Range qualities to it
ZH: 通常是一个宽下降通道，而宽通道中往往有很多震荡区间的特征
14:37 - 14:40
EN: and it usually typically evolves into a Trading Range.
ZH: 而且最终会演变成震荡区间
14:47 - 14:52
EN: Bulls will buy reversals up from breaking out below prior lows
ZH: 跌破前低并反转上涨时，多头会买入做多
14:52 - 14:56
EN: - breakout to a new low, buy a reversal up; same thing here and here
ZH: ——跌到新低，反转上涨时买入；这里和这里也是一样
14:56 - 14:58
EN: - and they can make money doing it.
ZH: 多头这样做可以赚到钱
15:02 - 15:05
EN: Broad Bear Channels tend to have a series of Trading Ranges,
ZH: 宽下降通道往往由一系列震荡区间组成
15:05 - 15:08
EN: and the Trading Ranges tend to get lower and lower and lower.
ZH: 这些区间一个比一个低
15:09 - 15:11
EN: So it’s a Trading Range and then a breakout,
ZH: 比如这是一个震荡区间，向下跌破
15:11 - 15:13
EN: and then another Trading Range and another breakout.
ZH: 形成新的区间，然后再次跌破
15:14 - 15:19
EN: In general, whenever the market’s making a Trading Range, it’s in BreakOut Mode.
ZH: 通常来说，每当市场形成震荡区间时，它就处于突破模式
15:19 - 15:24
EN: 50% chance of a bull breakout, 50% chance of a successful bear breakout.
ZH: 50%的概率向上突破，50%的概率向下突破，
15:24 - 15:27
EN: However, if the market’s in a Broad Bear Channel
ZH: 然而，如果市场处于宽下降通道
15:27 - 15:29
EN: and you look at a higher timeframe chart,
ZH: 在更高的时间周期看
15:29 - 15:33
EN: these Trading Ranges are bear flags in a bear trend,
ZH: 这些震荡区间只不过是下降趋势中的熊旗
15:33 - 15:39
EN: and therefore if you only look at the 5-minute chart,
ZH: 因此，在5分钟K线图上的震荡区间更有可能会向下跌破
15:36 - 15:39
EN: chances are the Trading Range is going to get a bear breakout.
ZH: 因此，在5分钟K线图上的震荡区间更有可能会向下跌破
15:39 - 15:41
EN: Even though you think it might be BreakOut Mode
ZH: 尽管看上去是突破模式
15:41 - 15:45
EN: and have the same probability for a bull breakout, it does not.
ZH: 看上去多空双方突破的概率似乎都是50%， 实际上并非如此
15:45 - 15:55
EN: If you look back at enough bars, you’ll see that the Trading Range
ZH: 如果回看足够多的K线，你会发现这些震荡区间处于宽下降通道内， 这意味着价格更有可能继续向下跌破，而不是反转向上突破
15:47 - 15:55
EN: is within a Broad Bear Channel, and that means the probability
ZH: 如果回看足够多的K线，你会发现这些震荡区间处于宽下降通道内， 这意味着价格更有可能继续向下跌破，而不是反转向上突破
15:50 - 15:55
EN: of a bear breakout is greater than the probability of a successful bull breakout.
ZH: 如果回看足够多的K线，你会发现这些震荡区间处于宽下降通道内， 这意味着价格更有可能继续向下跌破，而不是反转向上突破
15:59 - 16:01
EN: Here we have a negative (body) gap.
ZH: 这里有一个负缺口（实体缺口）
16:02 - 16:05
EN: We have a pullback and it went above the breakout point.
ZH: 反弹回到了突破点的上方
16:06 - 16:09
EN: As long as they overlap, it’s not too big.
ZH: 如果只是影线有所重叠，我就仍然称之为负缺口（实体缺口）
16:08 - 16:09
EN: I still call it a negative (body) gap,
ZH: 如果只是影线有所重叠，我就仍然称之为负缺口（实体缺口）
16:09 - 16:13
EN: and it still sometimes leads to a Measured Move down.
ZH: 它仍然可能是测量型缺口，导致价格继续下跌到MM目标位
16:17 - 16:21
EN: This high and then the breakout point, this is a major Lower High.
ZH: 从这个高点，到突破点——它是重要的高点
16:21 - 16:24
EN: This is a major attempt at a reversal up.
ZH: 之前价格尝试从这个低点反转上涨
16:24 - 16:28
EN: Two important points usually lead to a third point, a Measured Move down.
ZH: 两个重要的价格往往会形成第3个重要价格，也就是下方的MM目标位
16:28 - 16:35
EN: Even though this overlapped the breakout point by maybe a couple points,
ZH: 尽管反弹超过了突破点几个点，但重叠不是很多
16:33 - 16:35
EN: it’s not that much overlap.
ZH: 尽管反弹超过了突破点几个点，但重叠不是很多
16:35 - 16:38
EN: It reversed down quickly, and it still led to a Measured Move down.
ZH: 价格很快反转下跌，并且跌到了MM目标位
16:38 - 16:47
EN: So we have a high, a strong bear breakout, and then a pullback
ZH: 从这个高点，强势下跌创新低， 然后反弹回测突破点，遇到阻力恢复下跌，跌到了MM目标位
16:42 - 16:47
EN: that failed at the breakout point and it fell for about a Measured Move down.
ZH: 从这个高点，强势下跌创新低， 然后反弹回测突破点，遇到阻力恢复下跌，跌到了MM目标位
16:49 - 16:52
EN: Here, this is before we get the pullback.
ZH: 这里，在反弹之前
16:52 - 16:54
EN: So certainly, a Measured Move target
ZH: 显然是一个MM目标位
16:54 - 16:58
EN: for a failed breakout below this Double Bottom.
ZH: ——双底反转失败，向下跌破到反向的MM，就在这里
16:57 - 16:58
EN: Here’s a Measured Move down.
ZH: ——双底反转失败，向下跌破到反向的MM，就在这里
16:58 - 17:01
EN: But then we get a pullback here and it’s starting to reverse down.
ZH: 然后反弹到这里，再次开始下跌
17:01 - 17:05
EN: I’m starting to look again for another Measured Move down
ZH: 我预期价格再次跌到MM目标位，因为它可能是一个测量型缺口
17:04 - 17:05
EN: from the negative (body) gap.
ZH: 我预期价格再次跌到MM目标位，因为它可能是一个测量型缺口
17:09 - 17:15
EN: Again, this is the Measured Move from a Double Top
ZH: 再讲一遍，这里是这个双顶的MM目标位—— 这两个高点形成的双顶，或那两个高点形成的双顶
17:11 - 17:15
EN: - this high or that high or this high or that high
ZH: 再讲一遍，这里是这个双顶的MM目标位—— 这两个高点形成的双顶，或那两个高点形成的双顶
17:15 - 17:19
EN: - or from a failed breakout below a Double Bottom – here, here.
ZH: 或者看作双底反转失败（后的反向MM目标位）——这两个低点形成的双底
17:19 - 17:23
EN: Trading Ranges typically have both Double Tops and Double Bottoms,
ZH: 震荡区间中经常同时有双顶和双底
17:23 - 17:27
EN: and when there’s a successful breakout, traders look for a Measured Move.
ZH: 一旦看到成功的突破，交易者就会寻找MM目标位
17:33 - 17:39
EN: Whenever you have a series of Trading Ranges in a trend
ZH: 每当趋势中有一系列震荡区间——也就是震荡下跌的时候， 然后价格向下跌破
17:35 - 17:39
EN: - so you have trending Trading Ranges – and you get a bear breakout,
ZH: 每当趋势中有一系列震荡区间——也就是震荡下跌的时候， 然后价格向下跌破
17:39 - 17:46
EN: there’s a 60% chance that even if the breakout reaches the Measured Move target,
ZH: 60%的概率，即使价格下跌到MM目标位，也会反弹回到突破点的上方
17:43 - 17:46
EN: it’s going to test back at least a little bit above the bottom
ZH: 60%的概率，即使价格下跌到MM目标位，也会反弹回到突破点的上方
17:46 - 17:50
EN: of the prior Trading Range, at least 1 tick above that low.
ZH: 或者说，至少反弹到上一个震荡区间内，超过那个最低点1个tick
17:51 - 17:53
EN: Here we have a bear breakout below a Trading Range,
ZH: 这里跌破了震荡区间
17:53 - 17:56
EN: and it went well above the low of the Trading Range.
ZH: 然后反弹远远超过了那个区间的底部
Slide 011
Time: 17:59
Bilingual Transcript
18:06 - 18:08
EN: This is a 5-minute chart.
ZH: 这是一张5分钟K线图
18:08 - 18:12
EN: Whenever you have a fairly Broad Channel on a 5-minute chart
ZH: 如果在5分钟图上看到一个相当宽的通道
18:12 - 18:21
EN: - in other words, occurring in 50, 60, 70 bars,
ZH: ——持续50、60、70根K线，而不是几百根K线—— 那通常是一个楔形结构
18:16 - 18:21
EN: not 200, 300 bars – it’s typically a Wedge pattern.
ZH: ——持续50、60、70根K线，而不是几百根K线—— 那通常是一个楔形结构
18:28 - 18:29
EN: It’s a fairly Broad Channel.
ZH: 这个通道很宽
18:29 - 18:32
EN: Pullback more than 50%.
ZH: 反弹幅度超过50%
18:32 - 18:35
EN: Bulls could make money with stops buying reversals up.
ZH: 多头可以在反转上涨时用突破买单做多并赚钱
18:35 - 18:38
EN: Pullback lasting a lot of bars, 10 bars.
ZH: 反弹持续很多根K线，10根K线
18:38 - 18:40
EN: It’s a Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 这是一个宽下降通道
18:40 - 18:48
EN: When that happens, and it happens only within the course of a day –
ZH: 如果日内出现这样的行情——而不是要回看好几天的K线才能看到宽通道
18:45 - 18:48
EN: you don’t have to look at several days to see the channel
ZH: 如果日内出现这样的行情——而不是要回看好几天的K线才能看到宽通道
18:48 - 18:52
EN: - it’s usually going to be a Wedge Bottom and you usually get a Wedge reversal.
ZH: 那么它通常是一个楔形底，往往会形成楔形反转
18:53 - 18:56
EN: Traders will therefore expect a reversal
ZH: 因此交易者预期价格反转上涨
18:56 - 18:59
EN: and not for a continuation of the bear trend.
ZH: 而不是趋势继续下跌
19:04 - 19:08
EN: Remember, if you’re a day trader, here’s the start of the day.
ZH: 如果做日内交易，开盘在这里
19:08 - 19:12
EN: By the time you believe it’s a Broad Bear Channel, you’re somewhere down here.
ZH: 等你发现市场处于宽通道的时候，已经在这个地方了
19:12 - 19:14
EN: You’re already forming a Wedge,
ZH: 已经形成了楔形底
19:14 - 19:18
EN: and chances are there’s not much left to the down side.
ZH: 下跌的空间不多了
19:18 - 19:19
EN: Chances are we’re going to get a reversal.
ZH: 大概率会有一定的反转上涨
Slide 012
Time: 19:25
Bilingual Transcript
19:32 - 19:36
EN: Again, a Broad Bear Channel – Lower Lows, Lower Highs
ZH: 同样，宽下降通道——低点降低，高点降低
19:36 - 19:46
EN: - occurring all within 1 day, and usually you have to be expecting the day
ZH: 所有这些都发生在一天之内—— 通常你必须预期它是楔形底，或者是震荡下跌的一天
19:41 - 19:46
EN: also to be either a Wedge Bottom, or a trending Trading Range day.
ZH: 所有这些都发生在一天之内—— 通常你必须预期它是楔形底，或者是震荡下跌的一天
19:46 - 19:49
EN: Here we tried to get a Wedge Bottom – one, two, and three.
ZH: 这里尝试形成楔形底——1，2，3
19:49 - 19:54
EN: Did not get all that far, and it ended up more as a trending Trading Range day.
ZH: 没有反转很多，最终更像是震荡下跌的一天
19:54 - 19:56
EN: Trading Range here, breakout.
ZH: 震荡区间，跌破
19:56 - 19:58
EN: Trading Range here, breakout.
ZH: 震荡区间，跌破
19:58 - 19:59
EN: Trading Range here, breakout.
ZH: 震荡区间，跌破
20:02 - 20:03
EN: Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 宽下降通道
20:03 - 20:05
EN: Lower Highs, Lower Lows.
ZH: 高点降低，低点降低
20:05 - 20:07
EN: Deep pullbacks after each bear leg.
ZH: 每次下跌之后的反弹都很大
20:11 - 20:13
EN: It’s also trending Trading Ranges.
ZH: 震荡下跌的一天
20:13 - 20:17
EN: You can draw it this way and this way, or you can say
ZH: 可以这样画震荡区间，新的区间，
20:17 - 20:20
EN: this is a Trading Range, breakout, and a smaller range.
ZH: 或者可以说这是一个区间，下跌之后形成这个更小的区间
20:22 - 20:25
EN: Breakouts are brief, and the Trading Ranges have a lot of bars.
ZH: 突破是短暂的，大部分K线都在震荡
20:28 - 20:31
EN: Traders will sell reversals down because we’re in a bear trend,
ZH: 空头会在恢复下跌时卖出做空，因为市场整体处于下降趋势
20:31 - 20:34
EN: but because the rallies last a lot of bars,
ZH: 但因为反弹持续了很多根K线
20:34 - 20:37
EN: bulls will buy reversals up at least for a scalp.
ZH: 所以多头也会在反转上涨时买入，至少赚一笔剥头皮
20:38 - 20:43
EN: We’re forming Lower Highs and Lower Lows, so it’s a bear trend.
ZH: 高点和低点都在降低，所以它是下降趋势
20:43 - 20:45
EN: Easier to make money looking to sell,
ZH: 做空赚钱更容易
20:45 - 20:50
EN: but the pullbacks are big enough so bulls will also buy for a scalp.
ZH: 但反弹幅度足够大，所以多头也可以做多剥头皮
20:55 - 20:59
EN: By the time a trader is confident that it’s a Broad Bear Channel,
ZH: 等交易者确定它是宽下降通道的时候，
20:59 - 21:03
EN: the day is almost over and there’s not much time left for a swing down.
ZH: 一天几乎已经结束了，下跌波段的时间所剩无几
Slide 013
Time: 21:07
Bilingual Transcript
21:08 - 21:13
EN: Why are Broad Bear Channels not all that common on 5-minute charts?
ZH: 为什么很少在5分钟K线图上看到宽下降通道？
Slide 014
Time: 21:14
Bilingual Transcript
21:16 - 21:19
EN: Here are several days of a 5-minute chart.
ZH: 这里是好几天的5分钟图
21:20 - 21:24
EN: Each day is 81 bars, so this is over 200 bars.
ZH: 每一天有81根5分钟K线，所以这里有超过200根K线
21:29 - 21:35
EN: Usually you cannot be sure that the market’s in a Broad Bear Channel
ZH: 通常至少需要100根K线，你才能确定市场处于宽下降通道
21:32 - 21:35
EN: until there are at least 100 bars,
ZH: 通常至少需要100根K线，你才能确定市场处于宽下降通道
21:35 - 21:40
EN: and that is because a Broad Bear Channel has bull legs that last a lot of bars,
ZH: 这是因为宽下降通道中有持续很多K线的上涨波段
21:40 - 21:43
EN: and by the time you get a couple bull legs lasting 10 or 20 bars
ZH: 等你看到好几个持续了20根K线的上涨波段
21:43 - 21:47
EN: and then you add in the bear legs, you end up with more than 100 bars.
ZH: 再加上更多的下跌波段，K线数量早就超过100了
21:47 - 21:51
EN: More than what you would see on a 5-minute chart on the screen.
ZH: 通常屏幕上放不下那么多5分钟K线
21:55 - 21:59
EN: Usually to become confident that the market is in a Broad Bear Channel,
ZH: 想要确认市场处于宽下降通道
21:59 - 22:04
EN: you need at least three legs up and down, and since the legs each have 10 bars,
ZH: 至少需要3段上涨和下跌，而每个波段至少有10根K线
22:04 - 22:12
EN: sometimes 20 or 30 bars, you do not have enough bars in a 100-bar screenshot
ZH: 有些是20、30根K线，屏幕上放不下那么多， 仅仅凭借100根K线无法确认是不是宽通道
22:10 - 22:12
EN: for you to be confident that the channel is broad.
ZH: 有些是20、30根K线，屏幕上放不下那么多， 仅仅凭借100根K线无法确认是不是宽通道
22:13 - 22:18
EN: Therefore, if you’re trading a 5-minute chart
ZH: 因此，如果只是根据今天的价格行为在5分钟图上交易
22:15 - 22:18
EN: and you’re only looking at today’s price action,
ZH: 因此，如果只是根据今天的价格行为在5分钟图上交易
22:18 - 22:20
EN: you’re going to overlook Broad Bear Channels.
ZH: 你不需要关注这么大的下降通道
22:20 - 22:24
EN: You’ll simply trade what’s in front of you even though today’s price action
ZH: 根据眼前的价格行为去交易就足够了
22:24 - 22:28
EN: might be part of a Broad Bear Channel that has gone on for 5 or 10 days.
ZH: 尽管今天的行情是这个持续了5天或10天的宽通道的一部分
22:29 - 22:32
EN: If you want to be trading it like a Broad Bear Channel,
ZH: 如果你想按照宽下降通道去交易，
22:32 - 22:37
EN: it’s probably better to be trading a higher timeframe chart
ZH: 最好去看更高的时间周期，能够看到这个下降通道的全貌
22:35 - 22:37
EN: so that you can see the Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 最好去看更高的时间周期，能够看到这个下降通道的全貌
22:41 - 22:44
EN: We’re having a series of Lower Highs and Lower Lows,
ZH: 高点和低点都在不断降低
22:44 - 22:47
EN: and we have a strong breakout to a new low.
ZH: 这里强势向下跌破、创新低
22:47 - 22:53
EN: Maybe this is a Broad Bear Channel at the end
ZH: 这里是下降通道第3天的收盘
22:50 - 22:53
EN: of a third day in a channel going down.
ZH: 这里是下降通道第3天的收盘
22:59 - 23:06
EN: Usually you need at least three legs to be sure
ZH: 通常需要至少3个波段才能确定市场处于下降通道， 比如1，反弹；2，反弹；3
23:02 - 23:06
EN: that you’re in a Broad Bear Channel, so one, pullback, two, pullback, three.
ZH: 通常需要至少3个波段才能确定市场处于下降通道， 比如1，反弹；2，反弹；3
23:07 - 23:08
EN: But it’s also possibly a Wedge Bottom.
ZH: 但它也可能是一个楔形底
23:08 - 23:10
EN: We could get a reversal up from here.
ZH: 可能会反转上涨
23:15 - 23:19
EN: Not enough information to be sure what to expect for tomorrow,
ZH: 没有足够多的信息来确定明天会发生什么
23:19 - 23:23
EN: and therefore the probability is not as high as the bears want.
ZH: 所以，空头的概率没有想象中那么高
23:25 - 23:29
EN: However, when you look back from this point here,
ZH: 然而，这个时候回过头来看，
23:29 - 23:33
EN: you know in hindsight that this in fact was part of a Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 你才发现原来它是宽下降通道的一部分
23:33 - 23:38
EN: Again, if you’re going to be trading a 5-minute chart like a Broad Bear Channel,
ZH: 再讲一遍，如果你想按照宽下降通道去交易
23:38 - 23:41
EN: you really should be trading a higher timeframe chart.
ZH: 还是切换到更高的时间周期更好一些
23:41 - 23:47
EN: If you’re trading the 5-minute chart, just look at the 100 bars
ZH: 如果在5分钟图上交易，根据眼前100根K线的价格行为去做就可以了
23:44 - 23:47
EN: in front of you and trade what is in front of you.
ZH: 如果在5分钟图上交易，根据眼前100根K线的价格行为去做就可以了
23:47 - 23:51
EN: If you want to be trading a chart that goes back 5 days or 10 days,
ZH: 如果你想根据过去5天或10天的行情交易
23:51 - 23:54
EN: you probably should not be trading the 5-minute chart.
ZH: 那么最好不要看5分钟图
23:54 - 23:56
EN: You should be looking at the 15-minute or 60-minute chart.
ZH: 看15分钟或60分钟图会更好一些
Slide 015
Time: 24:00
Bilingual Transcript
24:04 - 24:09
EN: The legs up and down in a Broad Channel sometimes last 10 bars, 20 bars or more,
ZH: 宽通道中的上涨和下跌波段，有时持续10、20甚至更多根K线
24:09 - 24:13
EN: and since you need several legs to be convinced it’s a Broad Bear Channel,
ZH: 由于至少需要3个同方向的波段才能确认它是宽下降通道
24:13 - 24:19
EN: it often is impossible to draw that conclusion simply
ZH: 仅仅依靠一天的行情是很难判断的
24:17 - 24:19
EN: by looking at today’s price action.
ZH: 仅仅依靠一天的行情是很难判断的
24:19 - 24:21
EN: You usually have to look at several days.
ZH: 通常需要好几天的5分钟K线
24:26 - 24:30
EN: If you’re a day trader, you trade the 100 bars that are in front of you.
ZH: 如果做日内交易，根据眼前的100根K线做就可以了
24:31 - 24:37
EN: While it’s nice to know that the market’s in a Broad Bear Channel
ZH: 虽然知道过去几天处于宽下降通道是有帮助的
24:34 - 24:37
EN: and it has been in one for the past several days,
ZH: 虽然知道过去几天处于宽下降通道是有帮助的
24:37 - 24:41
EN: and it makes you look more for shorts, selling rallies,
ZH: 这让你更倾向于在反弹时找做空机会
24:41 - 24:43
EN: you don’t need to know that as a day trader.
ZH: 但作为日内交易者，你并不需要这些
24:43 - 24:45
EN: You simply trade what’s in front of you.
ZH: 根据当下的价格行为交易即可
Slide 016
Time: 24:50
Bilingual Transcript
24:51 - 24:54
EN: Broad Channels are much more common on higher timeframe charts
ZH: 宽通道在更高时间周期的K线图上更常见
24:54 - 24:57
EN: - 60-minute charts, daily charts, weekly and monthly charts.
ZH: ——比如60分钟图，或者日K线、周K线、月K线
25:02 - 25:04
EN: You can also see them on 5-minute charts,
ZH: 你也可以在5分钟K线图上看到它们
25:04 - 25:08
EN: but you usually have to look at several days before they’re clear.
ZH: 但通常需要看好几天的行情才能看清楚
25:08 - 25:11
EN: Usually you have to look at 3, 4, or 5 days.
ZH: 通常需要3、4、5天
25:11 - 25:15
EN: Here it’s 9 days in a Broad Bear Channel, and you’re probably not confident
ZH: 这个宽下降通道持续了9天，
25:15 - 25:18
EN: that it’s a Broad Bear Channel until at least the third day.
ZH: 可能到第3天你才有信心认为它是一个宽下降通道
25:24 - 25:28
EN: By definition, a Broad Bear Channel is going to have strong rallies,
ZH: 根据定义，宽下降通道里会有强势的反弹
25:28 - 25:31
EN: and sometimes the market’s even Always In Long.
ZH: 甚至有时处于单边上涨
25:31 - 25:33
EN: You get strong breakouts, two legs up.
ZH: 强势的反转，两段上涨
25:37 - 25:42
EN: Strong selloff and a bull breakout above the bear trend line,
ZH: 剧烈的抛售，下降趋势线被突破，
25:42 - 25:44
EN: and Double Bottom Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 然后是低点抬高的双底大反转
25:44 - 25:46
EN: It’s reasonable to buy this reversal up,
ZH: 再反转上涨时做多是合理的
25:46 - 25:50
EN: and this reversal up lasted maybe 100 bars.
ZH: 并且这个反转持续了有100根K线
25:50 - 25:54
EN: Plenty of room for a profit if you’re a day trader trading a 5-minute chart.
ZH: 如果在5分钟图上做日内交易，有充足的利润空间
25:57 - 26:00
EN: Here we have a slightly Higher High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 高点略微抬高的大反转
26:00 - 26:03
EN: If you want, you can call it a Double Top Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 也可以说它是双顶大反转
26:03 - 26:07
EN: You could sell that, looking for a swing down,
ZH: 可以在这里做空，押注下跌波段
26:07 - 26:10
EN: and you get out at the end of the day if you’re a day trader.
ZH: 做日内交易的话，持有到收盘前平仓就可以了
26:15 - 26:19
EN: Here’s a 5-minute Broad Bear Channel that lasted 6 days.
ZH: 这个5分钟的宽下降通道持续了9天
Slide 017
Time: 26:15
Bilingual Transcript
26:25 - 26:27
EN: Nobody’s going to be trading a chart that looks like this.
ZH: 没有人会在这种图上交易
26:27 - 26:29
EN: This is basically a line chart.
ZH: 基本上变成线形图了 （注：完全看不清K线）
26:29 - 26:32
EN: It’s a bar chart that is so compressed that it looks like a line chart.
ZH: 这张美式K线图被压缩成线形图了
26:32 - 26:36
EN: Most day traders don’t trade charts that look like this.
ZH: 大多数日内交易者不会看这样的图去交易
26:36 - 26:41
EN: If a day trader wants to be looking at 3, 4, 5 days or more,
ZH: 如果一个日内交易者想要看3、4、5天甚至更大的行情
26:41 - 26:43
EN: he’s not going to look at a 5-minute chart.
ZH: 他不会看5分钟图
26:43 - 26:49
EN: He’s going to look at a higher timeframe chart, a 15-minute chart,
ZH: 而是会看更高的时间周期——15分钟、60分钟， 在那张图上进行交易
26:46 - 26:49
EN: a 60-minute chart, and trade that chart.
ZH: 而是会看更高的时间周期——15分钟、60分钟， 在那张图上进行交易
26:49 - 26:55
EN: If you’re looking at a 5-minute chart,
ZH: 如果看5分钟图交易，没有必要把它压缩成这样去交易
26:51 - 26:55
EN: you’re not going to look at it compressed like this and trade it like this.
ZH: 如果看5分钟图交易，没有必要把它压缩成这样去交易
26:55 - 26:59
EN: This is not the kind of chart that most traders are going to use for trading.
ZH: 大部分人不会用这种图去交易
Slide 018
Time: 27:01
Bilingual Transcript
27:02 - 27:06
EN: I said that if you have a Broad Channel on a 5-minute chart,
ZH: 之前说过，5分钟图上的宽通道
27:06 - 27:09
EN: it can in fact be a very Tight Channel on a 60-minute chart.
ZH: 在60分钟图上可能是一个比较窄的通道
27:13 - 27:16
EN: I talked about the 9-day channel on the last chart;
ZH: 上一页课件上那个持续了9天的宽通道
27:16 - 27:19
EN: well, this is it on the 60-minute chart,
ZH: 这是它在60分钟图上的样子
27:19 - 27:21
EN: and for most of it it’s a fairly Tight Channel.
ZH: 大部分时间是一个很窄的下降通道
27:21 - 27:25
EN: When a channel looks like this, it’s usually better only to look to sell.
ZH: 如果通道看起来这么窄，最好只做空、不做多
27:29 - 27:32
EN: Triangle, bear bar, sell the breakout below.
ZH: 三角形，阴线，在它下方用突破卖单做空
27:36 - 27:38
EN: Strong follow-through bar.
ZH: 跟随K线很不错
27:38 - 27:43
EN: You can even sell the close and put a stop
ZH: 可以在它的收盘卖出做空， 然后把止损放在最近的起跌点上方
27:41 - 27:43
EN: above the top of the most recent bear breakout.
ZH: 可以在它的收盘卖出做空， 然后把止损放在最近的起跌点上方
27:47 - 27:51
EN: Trail stops after each strong breakout to a new low.
ZH: 每次跌破创新低之后，就可以追踪止损
27:51 - 27:53
EN: This becomes a major Lower High.
ZH: 它变成了新的重要高点
27:53 - 28:01
EN: You can put your stop just above its high, and then once this reverses down
ZH: 可以把止损移动到它的上方； 一旦再次下跌创新低，且有足够数量的阴线
27:57 - 28:01
EN: to a new low, and if there are a reasonable number of bear bars,
ZH: 可以把止损移动到它的上方； 一旦再次下跌创新低，且有足够数量的阴线
28:01 - 28:06
EN: this is then a new leg down and traders
ZH: 这是新的下跌波段，空头会把止损放到它的起跌点上方
28:04 - 28:06
EN: will put their stop just above the top of the leg.
ZH: 这是新的下跌波段，空头会把止损放到它的起跌点上方
28:06 - 28:09
EN: This then becomes a major Lower High.
ZH: 因为它已经变成了重要的高点
28:14 - 28:19
EN: If you’re trading the 60-minute chart, you’re probably holding for several days,
ZH: 如果根据60分钟图交易，你可以持有好几天
28:19 - 28:22
EN: and you can continue to hold until there’s a clear bottom,
ZH: 直到出现了明显的底部结构
28:22 - 28:26
EN: or until it rallies back above one of your stops.
ZH: 或者直到价格反弹到了重要高点的上方（注：打掉止损）
Slide 019
Time: 28:30
Bilingual Transcript
28:31 - 28:34
EN: There’s an important difference between major highs and Lower Highs.
ZH: 重要和次要的高点之间有很大的区别
28:34 - 28:40
EN: If the market’s in a bear trend, it needs to keep forming more major Lower Highs.
ZH: 如果想要保持下降趋势，就需要重要的高点不断降低
28:40 - 28:44
EN: If it goes above a major Lower High, then it’s no longer in a bear trend.
ZH: 如果重要高点被突破，那么它就不在处于下降趋势了
28:44 - 28:47
EN: It’s either in a bull trend or a Trading Range,
ZH: 要么是上涨趋势，要么是震荡区间
28:47 - 28:53
EN: and therefore you trade differently from how you would trade
ZH: 此时你的交易策略就不应该再和下降趋势一样了
28:51 - 28:53
EN: if the market was in a bear trend.
ZH: 此时你的交易策略就不应该再和下降趋势一样了
Slide 020
Time: 28:54
Bilingual Transcript
28:57 - 28:58
EN: Lots of reversals.
ZH: 很多反转的尝试
28:58 - 29:01
EN: Some are major, some are minor.
ZH: 有些是大反转，更多的是小反转
29:01 - 29:03
EN: Lots of little moves up and down.
ZH: 有很多上涨和下跌的小波段
29:05 - 29:07
EN: Strong selloff to a new low,
ZH: 剧烈抛售创新低
29:10 - 29:14
EN: and therefore this is a major Lower High up here.
ZH: 所以它变成了一个重要的高点
29:14 - 29:17
EN: As long as the market continues to form major Lower Highs
ZH: 只要这些重要的高点不断降低，
29:17 - 29:20
EN: and does not rally above a major Lower High,
ZH: 并且反弹不超过前一个重要高点
29:20 - 29:24
EN: then it’s still in a bear trend and traders will trade it like a bear trend.
ZH: 那么下降趋势就仍然完好，交易者会继续按照下降趋势来交易
29:24 - 29:27
EN: They’ll sell rallies, maybe take profits at new lows,
ZH: 他们会在反弹时卖出做空，然后再创新低的时候止盈
29:27 - 29:30
EN: and they don’t want to be buying high.
ZH: 他们不愿意追涨
29:37 - 29:40
EN: If the market were to go above a major Lower High,
ZH: 如果重要的高点被突破
29:40 - 29:42
EN: then it would no longer be a bear trend.
ZH: 那么它就不再是下降趋势
29:42 - 29:45
EN: It would either be a bull trend or a Trading Range,
ZH: 它要么是上涨趋势，要么是震荡区间
29:45 - 29:49
EN: and therefore major Lower Highs are important.
ZH: 所以这些重要的高点很关键
29:49 - 29:51
EN: That’s why I call them major.
ZH: 因此我说它们“重要”
29:54 - 29:56
EN: After each strong breakout to a new low,
ZH: 每次强势跌破创新低之后，
29:56 - 29:59
EN: the most recent high then is a major Lower High.
ZH: 最近一个起跌点就是重要的高点
29:59 - 30:06
EN: The bear trend needs to stay below prior major Lower Highs
ZH: 价格一直保持在前一个重要高点的下方，下降趋势才能保持完好
30:04 - 30:06
EN: to still be a bear trend.
ZH: 价格一直保持在前一个重要高点的下方，下降趋势才能保持完好
30:10 - 30:12
EN: 9 days in a Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 持续了9天的宽下降通道
Slide 021
Time: 30:10
Bilingual Transcript
30:19 - 30:24
EN: There are dozens of major Lower Highs
ZH: 一路上有几十个重要和次要的高点
30:22 - 30:24
EN: and major Higher Lows throughout the channel.
ZH: 一路上有几十个重要和次要的高点
30:25 - 30:27
EN: A minor Lower High means just that: it’s minor.
ZH: 次要低点的意思就是：不重要
30:27 - 30:33
EN: If the market goes above it, then you still can be in a bear trend.
ZH: 即使价格突破了它，市场也仍然处于下降趋势
30:33 - 30:37
EN: They expect the reversal up to fail and for the bear trend to resume.
ZH: 交易者预期反转上涨的尝试会失败，然后下降趋势继续
30:40 - 30:44
EN: Broad Channels always contain Trading Ranges.
ZH: 宽通道总是包含震荡区间
30:48 - 30:52
EN: Trading Ranges often have bull legs that go above some prior highs,
ZH: 震荡区间中经常会有上涨波段突破前期的高点
30:52 - 30:59
EN: but as long as the highs are minor, then yes, it’s a Trading Range,
ZH: 如果只是次要的高点被突破， 那么它就仍然只是宽下降通道内部的震荡区间
30:56 - 30:59
EN: but it’s still also in a Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 如果只是次要的高点被突破， 那么它就仍然只是宽下降通道内部的震荡区间
31:00 - 31:03
EN: The bulls have to rally above major Lower Highs
ZH: 多头必须想办法突破重要的高点
31:03 - 31:06
EN: to make traders believe it’s no longer in a bear trend.
ZH: 才能让更多交易者相信市场已经不再是下降趋势
31:10 - 31:15
EN: We broke out strongly above this high, but the selloff is not all that strong.
ZH: 价格突破了这个高点，但它后面的抛售并不强势
31:15 - 31:20
EN: Plus, it did not make a new low, so it’s a relatively minor Lower High.
ZH: 而且也没有跌到新低，所以它是相对次要的高点
31:20 - 31:24
EN: It’s a strong rally here, so it’s a fairly good Lower High,
ZH: 这段反弹很强势，所以这个高点也有意义
31:24 - 31:26
EN: but it’s not nearly as important as this.
ZH: 但重要性完全不能和这个高点相提并论
31:27 - 31:28
EN: Here, same thing.
ZH: 这里也是一样
31:28 - 31:30
EN: We have a selloff.
ZH: 下跌
31:30 - 31:33
EN: Reasonably strong, but did not get anywhere near the prior low,
ZH: 比较强势，但甚至都没有接近前期的低点
31:33 - 31:37
EN: and therefore it’s not really a major Lower High.
ZH: 所以它并不是重要的高点
31:37 - 31:40
EN: If the market goes above it, traders will sell.
ZH: 如果价格突破它，空头会逢高做空
31:40 - 31:45
EN: At this point, is it in a bull trend or still a bear trend?
ZH: 此时，市场到底处于上涨趋势还是下降趋势？
31:45 - 31:46
EN: Well, it’s both.
ZH: 两者都有
31:46 - 31:49
EN: It’s in a Trading Range, and whenever the market’s in a Trading Range,
ZH: 它处于震荡区间，而每当市场处于震荡区间的时候，
31:49 - 31:53
EN: it’s always also in a bull trend and a bear trend.
ZH: 都同时具有上涨趋势和下降趋势的特征
31:53 - 31:57
EN: Here we’re getting Higher Highs and Higher Lows, so it’s a bull trend.
ZH: 这里的高点和低点都在抬高，所以是一个上涨趋势
31:58 - 32:01
EN: However, we’re still staying below a major Lower High,
ZH: 但是，目前价格仍然低于前一个重要的高点
32:01 - 32:04
EN: so even with this rally lasting a couple of days,
ZH: 所以即使这个反弹持续了两天
32:04 - 32:08
EN: it’s still a bull leg in a bear trend.
ZH: 它仍然只是下降趋势中的一次反弹
32:12 - 32:16
EN: Even if it went above this high, a major Lower High,
ZH: 就算它超过了这个高点——重要的高点
32:16 - 32:19
EN: but did not get above the top of the bear trend, some traders
ZH: 但只要没有突破整个下降趋势的起跌点
32:19 - 32:23
EN: would still look at it as either a Trading Range or a bear channel.
ZH: 就仍然有空头认为它可能是震荡区间或下降通道
32:23 - 32:26
EN: We could go all the way up here and then collapse
ZH: 可能一直涨到上沿附近，然后瞬间反转下跌
32:26 - 32:28
EN: in a much bigger Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 变成更大的宽下降通道
32:30 - 32:36
EN: Markets very often are simultaneously in a Trading Range,
ZH: 市场经常同时处于震荡区间、上涨趋势和下降趋势中
32:34 - 32:36
EN: a bull trend, and a bear trend.
ZH: 市场经常同时处于震荡区间、上涨趋势和下降趋势中
32:36 - 32:43
EN: You don’t know what the end result will be until you see
ZH: 在行情走出来之前，你都无法确定最终的结果
32:40 - 32:43
EN: what the bars to the right of the screen look like.
ZH: 在行情走出来之前，你都无法确定最终的结果
32:44 - 32:47
EN: Here we’re in a Broad Bull Channel, we’re in a Broad Bear Channel,
ZH: 这里是一个小的宽上涨通道，外面是大的宽下降通道
32:47 - 32:49
EN: and we’re also in a Trading Range.
ZH: 也可以说它是震荡区间
32:49 - 32:53
EN: That is very common, to have all three existing at the same time.
ZH: 经常可以看到这三种周期混合在一起
32:53 - 32:56
EN: If the market just kept going up and up and up,
ZH: 如果市场继续上涨、上涨，
32:56 - 32:58
EN: you would say the bull trend began here.
ZH: 回过头看你会说上涨趋势是从这里开始的
32:58 - 33:00
EN: So this is part of a bull trend.
ZH: 所以它是上涨趋势的一部分
33:00 - 33:02
EN: If the market keeps going down and down and down,
ZH: 如果市场继续下跌、不断下跌
33:02 - 33:06
EN: you would say that this is a bull leg in a bear trend.
ZH: 你会说它只不过是下降趋势中的一个反弹的波段
33:07 - 33:15
EN: So at this point, anywhere in here, the market is in a bull trend,
ZH: 所以在这个时候，市场既处于上涨趋势，也处于下降趋势， 同时还处于震荡区间
33:11 - 33:15
EN: it is in a bear trend, and it is in a Trading Range.
ZH: 所以在这个时候，市场既处于上涨趋势，也处于下降趋势， 同时还处于震荡区间
33:19 - 33:22
EN: It’s a bear channel, still below a major Lower High.
ZH: 既然是下降通道，价格仍然低于前一个重要高点
33:22 - 33:26
EN: Traders will sell reversals down from above prior highs,
ZH: 当市场从前期高点上方反转下跌的时候，空头会卖出做空
33:26 - 33:33
EN: betting that each prior high is minor and the breakout will lead
ZH: 因为那只是一个次要的高点， 就算突破了它，也只不过是下降趋势中较大的反弹而已
33:30 - 33:33
EN: to simply a bigger pullback in the bear trend.
ZH: 因为那只是一个次要的高点， 就算突破了它，也只不过是下降趋势中较大的反弹而已
Slide 022
Time: 33:35
Bilingual Transcript
33:44 - 33:50
EN: When the market’s in a Trading Range,
ZH: 市场处于震荡区间，尽管震荡区间在大的宽下降通道里面
33:46 - 33:50
EN: even if the Trading Range is within a Broad Bull Channel,
ZH: 市场处于震荡区间，尽管震荡区间在大的宽下降通道里面
33:50 - 33:53
EN: if you’re trading the 5-minute chart you trade what is in front of you,
ZH: 如果在5分钟图上交易，根据眼前的价格行为
33:53 - 33:58
EN: and if it’s in a Trading Range, you buy low, you sell high,
ZH: 你按照震荡区间的方法——低买、高卖、赚快钱离场
33:57 - 33:58
EN: and you take quick profits.
ZH: 你按照震荡区间的方法——低买、高卖、赚快钱离场
33:58 - 33:59
EN: You scalp.
ZH: 做剥头皮交易
34:02 - 34:05
EN: Strong bear breakouts along the way.
ZH: 途中有强势的空头突破
34:05 - 34:07
EN: Market’s clearly Always In Short.
ZH: 市场显然在单边下跌
34:07 - 34:09
EN: Traders should be looking to sell.
ZH: 交易者应该想办法做空
34:13 - 34:16
EN: A bull trend lasting 10 or more bars
ZH: 反弹持续超过10根K线
34:16 - 34:20
EN: - this bull trend lasted well over 100 bars, 150 bars.
ZH: ——这个上涨趋势持续了100多根K线，可能有150根K线
34:20 - 34:22
EN: Bulls will buy for a swing.
ZH: 所以多头也可以买入做波段
34:22 - 34:25
EN: Double Bottom, Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 双底，低点抬高的大反转
34:25 - 34:26
EN: Another Double Bottom here.
ZH: 这里又有一个双底
Slide 023
Time: 34:30
Bilingual Transcript
34:31 - 34:35
EN: Here are the first 6 days of that 9-day Broad Bear Channel,
ZH: 这是那个持续了9天的宽下降通道的前6天
34:35 - 34:42
EN: and when you look at the individual days, it’s hard to imagine
ZH: 如果单独看某一天的行情， 很难想象它们是宽下降通道的一部分——但它们确实是
34:39 - 34:42
EN: that they are part of a Broad Bear Channel – but they are.
ZH: 如果单独看某一天的行情， 很难想象它们是宽下降通道的一部分——但它们确实是
34:42 - 34:46
EN: Broad Bear Channels often have strong rallies within them.
ZH: 宽下降通道内经常有强势的反弹
34:46 - 34:48
EN: Here, the market was up almost all day long,
ZH: 这里，市场几乎上涨了一整天
34:48 - 34:54
EN: but it was a bull leg in a Broad Bear Channel, and it formed a Lower High.
ZH: 但它只是宽下降通道中的一个上涨波段，没有突破前一个重要高点
34:57 - 34:59
EN: Pretty good reversal up, good bull bars.
ZH: 相当好的反转，漂亮的阳线
34:59 - 35:00
EN: It’s Always In Long.
ZH: 单边上涨
35:00 - 35:05
EN: Traders will buy even though it’s a bull leg in a Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 交易者会做多，即使它只是宽下降通道中的上涨波段
35:09 - 35:13
EN: This day had Lower Highs and Lower Lows, and it was in a Broad Bear Channel,
ZH: 这一天高点和低点都在降低，处于宽下降通道
35:13 - 35:16
EN: and the pullbacks overlapped the breakout points.
ZH: 反弹和突破点之间有重叠
35:16 - 35:18
EN: Bulls could make money buying.
ZH: 说明多头也可以赚到钱
35:18 - 35:20
EN: They didn’t know.
ZH: 在这个时候，它有可能就是当天的最低点
35:19 - 35:20
EN: This may have been the low of the day,
ZH: 在这个时候，它有可能就是当天的最低点
35:20 - 35:23
EN: and it could have lasted all day long from this point.
ZH: 也许可以从这里开始反转并上涨一整天
35:23 - 35:27
EN: So bulls will buy, and they’re able to make money buying.
ZH: 所以多头会买入，而且也能赚到钱
35:28 - 35:32
EN: Again, this is part of what turned out to be a Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 同样，最终它也是宽下降通道的一部分
35:34 - 35:37
EN: Wedge Bottom, three reversals up
ZH: 楔形底，3次反转上涨
35:37 - 35:41
EN: - one, two, and trying to get three, and a Micro Double Bottom.
ZH: ——1，2，现在第3次尝试，而且还有一个小双底
35:41 - 35:48
EN: Bulls will buy even though it’s a Broad Bear Channel,
ZH: 多头会买入做多，尽管目前是宽下降通道， 而且外面有更大的宽下降通道
35:45 - 35:48
EN: and it’s part of a bigger Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 多头会买入做多，尽管目前是宽下降通道， 而且外面有更大的宽下降通道
35:50 - 35:52
EN: Strong bear breakout.
ZH: 强势的空头突破
35:52 - 35:53
EN: Traders are selling closes.
ZH: 空头在阴线收盘卖出做空
35:56 - 35:58
EN: And then we got a fairly Tight Bull Channel,
ZH: 但价格反转上涨，进入了很窄的上涨通道
35:58 - 36:00
EN: and bulls will buy for any reason.
ZH: 此时多头会通过各种方式买入
36:00 - 36:01
EN: They’ll buy closes.
ZH: 在K线收盘时买入
36:01 - 36:02
EN: They’ll buy above bars.
ZH: 在K线上方挂突破买单
36:02 - 36:05
EN: This is a Tight Bull Channel and a reversal day.
ZH: 窄上涨通道，这一天是反转上涨日
36:05 - 36:09
EN: A bull reversal day inside of a Broad Bear Channel,
ZH: 是宽下降通道中的反转上涨日
36:11 - 36:15
EN: and then it entered a Trading Range from here to the remainder of the day,
ZH: 然后进入震荡区间，从这里开始一直到收盘
36:15 - 36:18
EN: and traders look to buy low and sell high and scalp.
ZH: 交易者低买、高卖、剥头皮
36:22 - 36:23
EN: Strong bear breakout.
ZH: 强势的空头突破
36:23 - 36:27
EN: Traders will sell, and then it entered a Trading Range.
ZH: 空头做空，然后市场进入震荡区间
36:27 - 36:30
EN: Traders will buy low, sell high, and scalp.
ZH: 交易者低买、高卖、剥头皮
36:33 - 36:36
EN: It’s a strong bull breakout, and traders will buy,
ZH: 强势的多头突破，买入做多
36:36 - 36:38
EN: betting that we’re going to get a swing up.
ZH: 押注会有上涨波段
36:38 - 36:39
EN: Now we have a Double Bottom.
ZH: 现在形成了双底
36:39 - 36:40
EN: They’ll buy again.
ZH: 他们会再次买入
36:44 - 36:45
EN: Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 窄下降通道
36:45 - 36:47
EN: Traders are selling for any reason,
ZH: 空头用各种方式卖出做空
36:49 - 36:51
EN: and then we entered a Trading Range.
ZH: 然后市场进入震荡区间
36:51 - 36:54
EN: Traders buy low, sell high, and scalp.
ZH: 交易者低买、高卖、剥头皮
36:55 - 36:58
EN: A Trading Range for the first half of this day.
ZH: 这一天的早盘一直是震荡区间
36:58 - 37:00
EN: Buy low, sell high.
ZH: 低买、高卖
37:03 - 37:06
EN: We have a Higher Low, maybe a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal,
ZH: 低点抬高，有可能是低点抬高的大反转
37:06 - 37:08
EN: and we’re in a bull channel.
ZH: 然后进入上涨通道
37:08 - 37:14
EN: Not all that broad, but it’s still a bull channel.
ZH: 并不是特别宽，但既然是通道， 多头更喜欢在回调时买入
37:12 - 37:14
EN: Traders will look to buy pullbacks.
ZH: 并不是特别宽，但既然是通道， 多头更喜欢在回调时买入
37:14 - 37:19
EN: This is a bull channel inside of a 9-day Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 这个上涨通道是持续了9天的宽下降通道的一部分
37:19 - 37:22
EN: So if you’re day trading and you’re looking at the 5-minute chart,
ZH: 如果你在5分钟图上做日内交易，
37:22 - 37:26
EN: you pay much more attention to the bars in front of you,
ZH: 只需要关注眼前的K线就可以了
37:26 - 37:31
EN: and you don’t worry that these bars are part of a much bigger Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 不需要纠结这些K线的外面是不是有一个很大的宽下降通道
Slide 024
Time: 37:35
Bilingual Transcript
37:41 - 37:42
EN: Look at these days.
ZH: 看这些天的行情
37:42 - 37:45
EN: None of them look like they’re part of a Broad Bear Channel,
ZH: 完全看不出它们是宽下降通道的一部分
37:45 - 37:50
EN: and you only see them if you look at several hundred bars on the chart.
ZH: 除非你同时看几百根K线
37:50 - 37:52
EN: If you’re day trading, you’re not going to do that.
ZH: 如果做日内交易，没必要看那么多K线
37:52 - 38:03
EN: You’re going to focus on the 100 bars that are in front of you
ZH: 专注于眼前的100根K线，根据当下的价格行为交易即可， 比如可以在这里做多，尽管整体是一个持续了很多天的下降趋势
37:55 - 38:03
EN: and trade what you see, and that includes buying even though it turned out
ZH: 专注于眼前的100根K线，根据当下的价格行为交易即可， 比如可以在这里做多，尽管整体是一个持续了很多天的下降趋势
37:59 - 38:03
EN: to be a bull leg in a bear channel lasting several days.
ZH: 专注于眼前的100根K线，根据当下的价格行为交易即可， 比如可以在这里做多，尽管整体是一个持续了很多天的下降趋势
Slide 025
Time: 38:19
Bilingual Transcript
38:20 - 38:25
EN: I began by drawing the distinction between a Broad Channel and a Tight Channel.
ZH: 这节课我先讲解了如何区分宽通道和窄通道
38:25 - 38:29
EN: When the channel is broad, you can make money both buying and selling,
ZH: 如果通道足够宽，做多和做空都能赚钱
38:30 - 38:34
EN: and since it’s a bear trend, it’s usually better to focus on selling.
ZH: 由于是下降趋势，专注于做空会更好
38:34 - 38:40
EN: You usually cannot tell if a channel is broad until you’ve seen 100 or more bars,
ZH: 除非一下子看几百根K线，否则通常无法看到宽通道的全貌，
38:40 - 38:46
EN: 200 bars, and that’s more bars than what you see
ZH: 做日内交易的时候不需要看那么多K线
38:43 - 38:46
EN: if you’re day trading on a 5-minute chart.
ZH: 做日内交易的时候不需要看那么多K线
38:46 - 38:48
EN: Most of the time if you’re looking at a 5-minute chart,
ZH: 大多数时候，如果只看5分钟K线
38:48 - 38:51
EN: you cannot tell that the market’s in a Broad Bear Channel,
ZH: 是很难判断市场是否处于宽通道的
38:51 - 38:55
EN: and by the time you decide that it’s in a Broad Bear Channel,
ZH: 等你发现市场处于宽通道的时候
38:55 - 38:57
EN: you’re probably near the end of the day.
ZH: 很可能已经快要收盘了
38:58 - 39:02
EN: There’s an important difference between major and minor highs in a bear trend.
ZH: 在下降趋势中，重要高点和次要高点之间有很大的区别
39:02 - 39:06
EN: As long as the market is making major highs, it’s still in a bear trend,
ZH: 只要重要的高点不断降低，下降趋势就仍然完好
39:07 - 39:09
EN: and therefore if it goes above minor highs,
ZH: 因此，如果只是次要的高点被突破
39:09 - 39:11
EN: traders will sell above those highs betting
ZH: 空头会在上方卖出做空
39:11 - 39:15
EN: that the market will continue to make major Lower Highs.
ZH: 押注重要的高点会继续降低
39:19 - 39:20
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
39:20 - 39:22
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
39:22 - 39:27
EN: This is the first of five videos on trading Broad Bear Channels.
ZH: 如何交易宽下降通道的第一节课，就先讲到这里