al-brooks-course
49C - Swing Trading Examples
Raw transcript and slide notes for 49C - Swing Trading Examples.
Overview
- Slides: 22
- Transcript segments: 501
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
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Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
00:05 - 00:09
EN: This is the third of six videos on swing trading examples.
Slide 001
Time: 00:10
Bilingual Transcript
00:12 - 00:15
EN: In this video I’m going to be talking about day trading examples,
00:15 - 00:20
EN: and I’m going to emphasize trade management more in this particular video.
Slide 002
Time: 00:21
Bilingual Transcript
00:24 - 00:26
EN: We see a bull Micro Channel.
00:29 - 00:31
EN: 16 bars without a pullback.
00:31 - 00:33
EN: By a pullback, I mean the low of the bar
00:33 - 00:37
EN: going below the low of the prior bar, and this began here.
00:37 - 00:40
EN: On a higher timeframe chart that’s a very strong breakout.
00:40 - 00:42
EN: However, it’s unsustainable.
00:43 - 00:47
EN: Can you get 20 bars, 30 bars without a pullback? Very unlikely.
00:47 - 00:50
EN: It’s climactic, and climactic usually means the market has to go sideways
00:50 - 00:55
EN: or down for 10 or 20 bars before the bulls will buy again.
01:00 - 01:05
EN: If you’re buying anywhere in here for any reason – you can buy above a High 1,
01:05 - 01:10
EN: you have another High 1 buy here, or you can start buying closes all the way up
01:10 - 01:13
EN: – any buy that you take anywhere through here,
01:13 - 01:16
EN: you have a stop down here, and you do not raise your stop.
01:16 - 01:20
EN: Maybe after 4 or 5 bars here you might raise your stop to here.
01:20 - 01:23
EN: The market is clearly still Always In Long.
01:23 - 01:27
EN: If you’re swing trading, there’s no reason to exit your long,
01:27 - 01:29
EN: whether or not you bought here or here.
01:29 - 01:31
EN: You’re still holding long.
01:31 - 01:37
EN: Even here, we have a potential Final Flag and a transition into a Trading Range.
01:37 - 01:42
EN: No time in here do the bears do anything to convince traders
01:42 - 01:46
EN: that they have taken control, and therefore the bulls are still holding long.
01:47 - 01:49
EN: We have a 20 gap bar pullback here.
01:49 - 01:52
EN: We’ve been above the Moving Average for 20 or 30 bars.
01:52 - 01:55
EN: Chances are the bulls will continue to hold long.
01:55 - 01:59
EN: Even up here, the bears do not have a convincing top.
01:59 - 02:03
EN: The market has transitioned into a Trading Range and it’s okay for the bulls
02:03 - 02:08
EN: to exit and then wait for another buy; however, they do not have to.
02:08 - 02:13
EN: No matter where they bought – let’s say they bought here – they’re still long.
02:13 - 02:16
EN: The market is still Always In Long and it’s still reasonable
02:16 - 02:19
EN: to stay long until the end of the session.
02:22 - 02:27
EN: If you did exit and you’re flat or if you were simply flat for any reason,
02:27 - 02:30
EN: the market now is pulling back to the Moving Average
02:30 - 02:32
EN: for the first time in about 30 or 40 bars.
02:33 - 02:35
EN: It’s reasonable to buy a reversal up,
02:35 - 02:38
EN: especially over a bull bar, for at least a scalp up.
02:40 - 02:44
EN: You can call it a Wedge bull flag as well – one push down, pullback,
02:44 - 02:48
EN: second push down, pullback, and then another bear bar, third push down
02:48 - 02:50
EN: - and now the bulls are trying to reverse up.
02:56 - 03:00
EN: Since the market’s now in a Trading Range, traders want to buy low, sell high.
03:00 - 03:02
EN: When they sell high, they can be selling out
03:02 - 03:06
EN: of longs for a scalp, taking profits.
03:07 - 03:11
EN: Not a strong enough setup for the bears to sell, but it’s reasonable
03:11 - 03:14
EN: for bulls to exit longs, whether they bought here
03:14 - 03:16
EN: or whether they bought here or anywhere in here.
Slide 003
Time: 03:20
Bilingual Transcript
03:23 - 03:25
EN: Although you don’t see all of yesterday,
03:25 - 03:29
EN: we broke below yesterday’s low and we are reversing up.
03:29 - 03:32
EN: A good-looking buy signal bar and 3 consecutive bull bars.
03:32 - 03:34
EN: The market’s Always In Long.
03:41 - 03:44
EN: Good-looking entry bar for the bulls who bought above this bar.
03:45 - 03:49
EN: Big bar closing on its high, bigger than the bear bar before it.
03:56 - 03:58
EN: Consecutive strong bull bars.
03:58 - 04:00
EN: By strong, I mean closing on their highs.
04:02 - 04:04
EN: Failed breakout below yesterday’s low.
04:04 - 04:08
EN: The market is now Always In Long, and by that what I mean
04:08 - 04:10
EN: is the market’s probably going at least a little bit higher.
04:17 - 04:21
EN: The follow-through bar after this strong bull bar, a little bit disappointing.
04:21 - 04:26
EN: The body is not particularly big and it has a fairly conspicuous tail on top.
04:26 - 04:29
EN: That is a warning that this rally might in fact
04:29 - 04:32
EN: be a bull leg in what will become a Trading Range.
04:33 - 04:35
EN: Maybe we’ll get one more push up to the Moving Average
04:35 - 04:38
EN: and form a Wedge opening reversal.
04:38 - 04:43
EN: Reversal down, reversal down, maybe a third reversal down at the Moving Average.
Slide 004
Time: 04:45
Bilingual Transcript
04:54 - 04:57
EN: It’s reasonable to buy this bull bar closing on its high.
04:57 - 05:00
EN: You buy on a stop above its high and you get filled right here.
05:02 - 05:06
EN: Bulls buy on a stop above the high of this bull bar and they get filled here.
05:06 - 05:08
EN: This is then the entry bar.
05:14 - 05:18
EN: Most bulls should be entering on a stop above the high of the buy signal bar.
05:18 - 05:20
EN: Aggressive bulls would buy the close.
05:20 - 05:23
EN: I think most traders should enter on a stop above its high.
05:25 - 05:28
EN: The context is good for at least a minor reversal – in other words,
05:28 - 05:32
EN: a few bars up and possibly a Trading Range – but it might be the low of the day.
05:38 - 05:42
EN: As the bar is forming, it’s going up reasonably strongly.
05:42 - 05:44
EN: A lot of bulls who did not buy the close here
05:44 - 05:50
EN: or the high of that bar right here will buy as the bar is forming,
05:50 - 05:54
EN: betting that the momentum up will result in higher prices.
Slide 005
Time: 05:55
Bilingual Transcript
05:59 - 06:01
EN: When you’re taking these early buys,
06:01 - 06:03
EN: your stop is right below the low of the bar,
06:03 - 06:08
EN: so your risk is small – but your probability is low as well.
06:08 - 06:11
EN: However, after you’ve had 2 or 3 good bull bars,
06:11 - 06:14
EN: the probability is higher that the market will go higher.
06:14 - 06:19
EN: If you buy at this point, your stop is now further away.
06:19 - 06:20
EN: That’s always the case.
06:20 - 06:22
EN: If you wait until the probability is higher,
06:22 - 06:25
EN: the stop is further away, so the risk is greater.
06:26 - 06:30
EN: That is acceptable, just as it is acceptable to take the early entry
06:30 - 06:32
EN: above the high of this bull reversal bar.
06:32 - 06:33
EN: Get long right here.
06:42 - 06:46
EN: By having a second consecutive bull bar closing on its high
06:46 - 06:49
EN: and now a third consecutive bull bar closing on its high,
06:49 - 06:52
EN: the bulls have demonstrated that they’re in control.
06:52 - 06:56
EN: The probability is the first reversal down will be bought.
06:56 - 06:59
EN: The bulls will buy it and not many bears will sell it,
06:59 - 07:01
EN: and we’ll go at least a little bit higher.
07:11 - 07:12
EN: Bulls buying closes.
07:12 - 07:13
EN: They buy this close.
07:13 - 07:17
EN: They’ll buy that close as well, betting that there’ll be at least a 60% chance
07:17 - 07:21
EN: of some kind of a Measured Move up based upon the height of the breakout.
07:21 - 07:25
EN: Maybe the open of this bar, the close of this bar, or the close of that bar.
07:30 - 07:33
EN: More aggressive bulls will even buy with limit orders
07:33 - 07:36
EN: below the low of this bar, betting that it’s a bad sell.
07:36 - 07:39
EN: For the bears, a Double Top – this high, that high
07:39 - 07:43
EN: - but 3 consecutive bull bars, a reversal up from below yesterday’s low.
07:43 - 07:47
EN: 3 bars closing above their midpoints, 2 closing on their highs.
07:47 - 07:50
EN: This is a low probability short.
07:50 - 07:53
EN: The bulls know that, and bulls who did not buy earlier will buy
07:53 - 07:57
EN: with a limit order at the low of that bar and they’ll get filled right here.
Slide 006
Time: 08:00
Bilingual Transcript
08:05 - 08:08
EN: This smaller bar, this tail and the bear body,
08:08 - 08:12
EN: means that the momentum is waning.
08:12 - 08:14
EN: The momentum for the bulls is less,
08:14 - 08:17
EN: and that increases the chances that instead of a bull trend,
08:17 - 08:20
EN: this might be a bull leg in what becomes a Trading Range.
08:21 - 08:24
EN: There’s room to the Moving Average, which is a magnet,
08:24 - 08:28
EN: and also room to a Measured Move target, from this open to that close.
08:28 - 08:30
EN: That takes us up around here.
08:30 - 08:34
EN: We’re probably going higher, but not necessarily a lot higher.
08:39 - 08:43
EN: It does not matter if you bought the close of this bar above its high here,
08:43 - 08:47
EN: this close, that close, this low – the stop is right here.
08:47 - 08:50
EN: You’re holding long for at least a little bit more up.
Slide 007
Time: 09:00
Bilingual Transcript
09:01 - 09:04
EN: The bulls who bought are betting on at least a bull leg
09:04 - 09:07
EN: in a Trading Range and possibly a bull trend.
09:07 - 09:11
EN: They know the odds are that we’ll get at least one more leg up
09:11 - 09:13
EN: and not a bear trend at this point.
09:13 - 09:16
EN: It can become a bear trend, but it’s not likely.
09:16 - 09:18
EN: Stop down here.
09:27 - 09:32
EN: The market’s Always In Long, so the bulls will hold long and rely on their stop.
09:32 - 09:36
EN: If it gets closer to the Moving Average, the bulls will be thinking
09:36 - 09:39
EN: that we might get an opening reversal down from the Moving Average.
09:39 - 09:43
EN: Maybe a Wedge rally – one, two, and three.
09:44 - 09:47
EN: But right now they believe we’re going at least a little bit higher.
09:50 - 09:55
EN: Other bulls will look at this and say, okay, suppose we sell off.
09:55 - 09:57
EN: We’re trying to reverse up strongly here.
09:58 - 10:01
EN: There probably will be more buyers below this low than sellers.
10:01 - 10:05
EN: Those bulls are trading small, buying for any reason,
10:05 - 10:07
EN: and they’ll buy more at the low of this bar,
10:07 - 10:10
EN: betting that there’ll be more buyers than sellers here.
10:10 - 10:13
EN: You’ll have a lot of bulls getting stopped out here,
10:13 - 10:16
EN: but you’ll have stronger bulls buying at that low,
10:16 - 10:20
EN: betting against a bear trend – betting that there’s enough buying here
10:20 - 10:25
EN: so that any reversal down will not get very far before we test back up.
10:28 - 10:32
EN: Those bulls who are looking to buy at this low will use a wide stop,
10:32 - 10:37
EN: maybe based upon a Measured Move down from the height of this opening range.
10:38 - 10:39
EN: Maybe even further.
10:44 - 10:50
EN: The bulls who bought for any reason – here or here or here – now have a new low.
Slide 008
Time: 10:45
Bilingual Transcript
10:51 - 10:55
EN: Most traders who bought for any reason would stop themselves out
10:55 - 10:58
EN: below the low of the buy signal bar.
10:58 - 11:02
EN: Aggressive bulls would in fact buy more.
11:02 - 11:05
EN: They’ll see a bear bar here, bad follow-through for the bears.
11:05 - 11:08
EN: A bear bar here, not a particularly big bear bar.
11:08 - 11:11
EN: They think that the selloff is probably a bear leg
11:11 - 11:13
EN: in what will become a Trading Range.
11:13 - 11:15
EN: A lot of the bulls who bought would exit
11:15 - 11:19
EN: on the Double Top – this high, that high.
11:19 - 11:20
EN: A Low 2.
11:20 - 11:21
EN: Low 1, Low 2.
11:21 - 11:26
EN: But the bulls who did not exit would exit either below this bar
11:26 - 11:29
EN: or using some kind of a wide stop, here or lower.
11:35 - 11:36
EN: We sold off.
11:36 - 11:37
EN: We rallied.
11:37 - 11:37
EN: We sold off.
11:37 - 11:38
EN: We rallied.
11:38 - 11:39
EN: We sold off.
11:39 - 11:41
EN: Multiple reversals.
11:41 - 11:43
EN: Probably a Trading Range.
11:43 - 11:48
EN: Again, some bulls would exit on the Low 2 triggering in a bear trend.
11:48 - 11:49
EN: We’re below the Moving Average.
11:49 - 11:51
EN: Not a very good sell signal bar.
11:51 - 11:54
EN: More likely we’re going to go sideways.
11:54 - 11:57
EN: We have small bars, multiple reversals.
11:57 - 11:59
EN: It looks like the development of an early Trading Range.
12:05 - 12:08
EN: Some bulls would exit on the close of this bar
12:08 - 12:11
EN: or on the close of that bar, if not below that low.
12:12 - 12:15
EN: But if they do exit, they’ll look to buy a reversal up,
12:15 - 12:17
EN: betting that it’s a Trading Range and not a bear trend.
12:22 - 12:25
EN: Again, you can exit on a stop below the low of that bar,
12:26 - 12:32
EN: the low of the original signal bar, or on the close of the follow-through bar.
12:32 - 12:35
EN: We have a small bear close after the breakout to a new low.
Slide 009
Time: 12:40
Bilingual Transcript
12:43 - 12:47
EN: Now, I mentioned that some bulls will look at this
12:47 - 12:48
EN: and say it’s probably a Trading Range.
12:49 - 12:52
EN: It goes to a new high and it gets sold off.
12:52 - 12:56
EN: It goes to a new low, it’s probably going to rally.
12:56 - 13:02
EN: There are bulls, especially expert bulls, who will buy with a limit order
13:02 - 13:06
EN: at the low of this bar, arguing we got a bear reversal but bad follow-through.
13:06 - 13:09
EN: We have a bear reversal and then only a small bear bar here.
13:10 - 13:12
EN: Probably we’re not going down much more.
13:12 - 13:15
EN: This is probably a bear leg in what will become a Trading Range.
13:16 - 13:21
EN: In a Trading Range, bears look to sell at prior highs – they sell here
13:21 - 13:26
EN: - and bulls look to buy at prior lows – they buy here, and they buy more lower,
13:26 - 13:30
EN: betting that this is a bear leg in what will become a Trading Range
13:30 - 13:32
EN: rather than the start of a bear trend.
Slide 010
Time: 13:35
Bilingual Transcript
13:41 - 13:42
EN: You can call this a Double Top.
13:42 - 13:44
EN: You can call this a Double Top.
13:44 - 13:46
EN: We have a Low 2 – Low 1, Low 2.
13:46 - 13:50
EN: The bears are hoping that this Double Top is the high of the day,
13:50 - 13:51
EN: but look at the sell signal bar.
13:51 - 13:54
EN: It’s a bull body and we have 3 consecutive bull bars.
13:54 - 13:56
EN: That is a low probability sell.
13:56 - 14:00
EN: You have a Low 2 short – Low 1, Low 2
14:00 - 14:03
EN: - but a doji bar and a 5 bar Tight Trading Range.
14:03 - 14:08
EN: Again, a low probability short, and therefore it increases the chances
14:08 - 14:12
EN: that any selloff will become a bear leg in a Trading Range.
14:12 - 14:16
EN: Bulls will be buying below the prior lows and they’ll be buying reversals up.
14:32 - 14:38
EN: The bears who sell, either below here for a Low 2 – Low 1, Low 2, Double Top
14:38 - 14:42
EN: - or here, Double Top here – know that we have 3 consecutive bull bars
14:42 - 14:46
EN: and we’re not at important resistance (the Moving Average).
14:46 - 14:49
EN: This is a lower probability short.
14:49 - 14:52
EN: They’ll sell hoping that it’s an opening reversal down
14:52 - 14:57
EN: from resistance (the Moving Average), but they know the probability is low.
15:05 - 15:08
EN: The bears who take this short, some will put a stop right
15:08 - 15:10
EN: above the high of this signal bar.
15:10 - 15:12
EN: 3 consecutive bull bars.
15:12 - 15:13
EN: I would not.
15:13 - 15:14
EN: I think you need a wider stop.
15:14 - 15:18
EN: You could put a stop way up here above the high of this rally,
15:18 - 15:23
EN: or you can put a stop slightly above a Measured Move up from the opening range
15:23 - 15:30
EN: - this low, that high, Measured Move up, and then stop just a little bit above.
Slide 011
Time: 15:31
Bilingual Transcript
15:36 - 15:39
EN: The bulls have a reasonable argument.
15:39 - 15:40
EN: Probably a Trading Range.
15:40 - 15:42
EN: The bears have a reasonable argument.
15:42 - 15:47
EN: Opening reversal and then a Double Top bear flag, Double Top bear flag.
15:47 - 15:48
EN: Possible high of the day.
15:48 - 15:53
EN: Whenever both the bulls and the bears have reasonable setups,
15:54 - 15:56
EN: the market is probably going to go sideways.
15:58 - 16:00
EN: Good reversal up, bad follow-through.
16:00 - 16:04
EN: We sold off to a new low, but terrible follow-through here
16:04 - 16:06
EN: and really not very good follow-through here.
16:06 - 16:09
EN: Therefore this is probably a Trading Range.
16:13 - 16:18
EN: Bears will sell the Low 2 short – Low 1 and then Low 2.
16:18 - 16:19
EN: They’ll sell the strong bear close.
16:19 - 16:23
EN: They’ll sell the breakout below the low of the day.
16:24 - 16:27
EN: They’ll sell the follow-through bar after the breakout.
16:27 - 16:30
EN: That is a disappointing breakout bar.
16:30 - 16:32
EN: It did not close at a new low,
16:32 - 16:35
EN: and it has a fairly prominent tail and a small body.
16:35 - 16:38
EN: This is a disappointing follow-through bar.
16:38 - 16:39
EN: It’s a small bear doji.
16:40 - 16:44
EN: The bears who are selling are concerned that this is not very bearish
16:44 - 16:48
EN: and it might be a Trading Range instead of the start of a bear trend.
16:49 - 16:53
EN: A lot of bears, instead of taking these shorts which are low probability,
16:53 - 16:56
EN: will wait for a strong bear breakout and then sell.
16:56 - 17:01
EN: After that strong bear breakout, the probability would then be higher
17:01 - 17:02
EN: that we’re in a bear trend.
17:07 - 17:09
EN: The bears who are shorting for any reason
17:09 - 17:13
EN: - once we have a breakout to a new low and a pretty good bear bar
17:13 - 17:16
EN: and follow-through bar, this is a major Lower High
17:16 - 17:18
EN: - they’ll put their stop above that high.
17:27 - 17:29
EN: A bad sell signal bar for the bears.
17:29 - 17:33
EN: It’s only a doji, and bad follow-through after a reasonably good bear bar.
17:34 - 17:38
EN: The bears know this is more likely a Trading Range than a bear trend,
17:38 - 17:40
EN: but the math is okay to swing a short.
17:41 - 17:44
EN: They take any of these shorts, stop up here,
17:44 - 17:47
EN: and they hold short looking for a swing down.
17:47 - 17:50
EN: If the bulls get a reversal up, the bears will get out
17:50 - 17:52
EN: before the market reaches their stop.
17:58 - 18:03
EN: For the bulls, they have a rally on the open and they have a High 1 buy
18:03 - 18:07
EN: when the market went above this high, and they’re hoping for a High 2 buy.
18:07 - 18:12
EN: Even though this low is below the bull breakout,
18:12 - 18:15
EN: it still could be a deep pullback from this initial rally.
18:16 - 18:20
EN: Sometimes you’ll have a selloff after a breakout and the selloff goes
18:20 - 18:25
EN: below the bottom of the rally, but it’s still a pullback from that breakout.
18:25 - 18:29
EN: So sometimes the pullback goes below the bottom of the initial rally.
18:30 - 18:33
EN: Therefore bulls will be looking to buy a reversal up,
18:33 - 18:36
EN: either as a pullback from this rally – in other words,
18:36 - 18:41
EN: bull breakout, bull flag – or as a low in a Trading Range.
18:47 - 18:51
EN: The bears know they do not have good sell signal bars here or here,
18:51 - 18:54
EN: and the bear entry bar is not particularly big,
18:54 - 18:56
EN: and the follow-through bars are weak.
18:56 - 19:01
EN: They are concerned that this looks more like a Trading Range than a bear trend.
19:01 - 19:05
EN: They will therefore be quick to exit if it starts to reverse up.
19:09 - 19:10
EN: And that’s what it did.
Slide 012
Time: 19:10
Bilingual Transcript
19:10 - 19:13
EN: We have an outside up bar closing on its high,
19:13 - 19:15
EN: and the bar after it has a bull body.
19:16 - 19:20
EN: This in fact, a lot of traders will see this as a Wedge bull flag.
19:20 - 19:25
EN: Three pushes down – one, pullback, two, and then pullback,
19:25 - 19:28
EN: and then three, and then a reversal up.
19:28 - 19:32
EN: You can call it a Wedge pullback from this initial rally.
19:32 - 19:33
EN: You can call it a Wedge Lower Low.
19:33 - 19:37
EN: You can call it a Double Bottom or slightly Lower Low.
19:37 - 19:40
EN: In any case, once we’re up here and right here,
19:40 - 19:44
EN: we’re probably Always In Long and we’re probably going higher.
19:44 - 19:47
EN: The reason this bar looks like this is because the bears
19:47 - 19:50
EN: who did sell down here are giving up.
19:50 - 19:52
EN: They did not want the market to go up,
19:52 - 19:56
EN: especially after bad sell signal bars and bad follow-through.
20:01 - 20:05
EN: Again, you can call it a Double Bottom or a slightly Lower Low Double Bottom,
20:06 - 20:07
EN: and you can call it a Wedge.
20:07 - 20:08
EN: Three pushes down.
20:09 - 20:14
EN: In any case, it’s a buy setup, and the bulls have a strong bull reversal.
Slide 013
Time: 20:10
Bilingual Transcript
20:18 - 20:21
EN: When the bulls see this outside up reversal from the Wedge Bottom
20:21 - 20:24
EN: and the Lower Low reversal, they’ll buy closes.
20:24 - 20:28
EN: They’ll buy this close, and then once we have one more bull close,
20:28 - 20:31
EN: they’ll start buying closes – here, that close, this close.
20:31 - 20:34
EN: They’ll buy a breakout above the top of the bear selloff,
20:34 - 20:38
EN: the final bear selloff, betting that the bears will give up.
20:38 - 20:41
EN: The bears who were short and did not exit earlier
20:41 - 20:43
EN: will get out above the high of this bear bar.
20:48 - 20:51
EN: The bears are exiting and the bulls are buying,
20:52 - 20:54
EN: betting that we’re Always In Long and we’ll go higher,
20:54 - 20:56
EN: maybe up to yesterday’s close.
21:02 - 21:05
EN: Not good follow-through after the strong bull reversal,
21:05 - 21:09
EN: but the next bar has good follow-through, closing on its high,
21:09 - 21:12
EN: so the odds still favor higher prices
21:12 - 21:15
EN: even though we’re simply pulling back to the Moving Average.
21:15 - 21:19
EN: We gapped down and we’re sideways to the Moving Average.
21:25 - 21:27
EN: Here we have 4 consecutive bull bars.
21:27 - 21:31
EN: Two closes at a new high of the day, two closes above the Moving Average,
21:31 - 21:35
EN: and 2 decent size bull bars closing on their highs.
21:35 - 21:38
EN: The market’s Always In Long probably by the close of this bar.
21:39 - 21:42
EN: It’s easier therefore to make money looking to buy.
21:42 - 21:47
EN: The stop for any of these buys is below the bottom of this bull reversal.
21:52 - 21:54
EN: Minimum target, you’re looking for a Measured Move up
21:54 - 21:56
EN: based upon the height of the Trading Range.
21:56 - 22:01
EN: Initially I use the smallest dimensions of the range – this low, that high.
22:01 - 22:04
EN: If it goes above that line, then I’ll look at a Measured Move
22:04 - 22:07
EN: from this low to that high, which would be a little bit higher.
Slide 014
Time: 22:10
Bilingual Transcript
22:18 - 22:23
EN: This bar represents the bears giving up and the bulls getting confident.
22:23 - 22:26
EN: If you want, you can call it a Lower Low Major Trend Reversal.
22:26 - 22:30
EN: We have a bear trend, a bull breakout, and then a Lower Low.
22:30 - 22:33
EN: You can also say it’s a minor reversal.
22:33 - 22:36
EN: We only had 3 bars up and a gap down.
22:36 - 22:39
EN: Not a very big pattern, and therefore it might be minor.
22:39 - 22:43
EN: In any case, it’s still Always In Long and the odds are we’re going higher.
22:49 - 22:52
EN: Again, even though we sold off to a new low of the day,
22:52 - 22:56
EN: a lot of traders will look at this selloff as simply a bull flag,
22:56 - 23:00
EN: a pullback from this rally – even though it’s at a new low.
23:03 - 23:06
EN: This is probably going to remain the low
23:06 - 23:09
EN: for the next several hours and possibly the low of the day.
23:09 - 23:12
EN: We have a gap down; we reversed up, and we’re trying to reverse up
23:12 - 23:14
EN: a second time from below yesterday’s low.
23:14 - 23:17
EN: This is a reasonably good buy setup.
23:17 - 23:20
EN: If you break below yesterday’s low – we gapped down
23:20 - 23:25
EN: - and you try to reverse up twice, usually the market will try to get a swing up.
23:29 - 23:32
EN: You can see we continued up further, and what happened once
Slide 015
Time: 23:30
Bilingual Transcript
23:32 - 23:35
EN: we reached the Measured Move target? We pulled back.
23:35 - 23:38
EN: Why did we pull back? Because a lot of the bulls
23:38 - 23:41
EN: who bought for any reason are taking profits
23:41 - 23:44
EN: around the Measured Move up from the initial Trading Range.
23:44 - 23:48
EN: Aggressive bears might take that short and scale in higher,
23:48 - 23:51
EN: but when the reversal up is as strong as this is,
23:51 - 23:55
EN: most of the selling is simply profit-taking from the bulls.
23:55 - 23:58
EN: Most bears will not sell because we’re probably only going
23:58 - 24:01
EN: to pull back for a bar or two, and probably not far enough
24:01 - 24:04
EN: to make a profit if you’re selling.
24:08 - 24:12
EN: Again, buying for any reason, stop is below the bottom.
24:16 - 24:18
EN: This early Trading Range trading – down and up
24:18 - 24:22
EN: and down and up and down and up – increases the chances
24:22 - 24:25
EN: that we’ll have additional Trading Range trading later in the day.
24:25 - 24:28
EN: Also, we have a bull bar and a doji.
24:28 - 24:31
EN: A bull bar, not all that big, and 3 small bars.
24:31 - 24:33
EN: A bull bar and bear bar.
24:33 - 24:35
EN: Bad follow-through on the way up.
24:35 - 24:37
EN: Even though we’re clearly Always In Long,
24:37 - 24:40
EN: that bad follow-through after every good bull bar
24:40 - 24:43
EN: and this early Trading Range trading increases the chances
24:43 - 24:46
EN: that this will soon evolve into a Trading Range.
24:52 - 24:54
EN: Possibly a Parabolic Wedge.
24:54 - 24:57
EN: We have a breakout and a pause, a breakout and a pause,
24:57 - 24:59
EN: a breakout and a bear bar.
24:59 - 25:04
EN: Not really good shape, but it’s possibly a Parabolic Wedge Top.
25:04 - 25:07
EN: It’s also possible that it’s a 2nd Leg Trap in a Trading Range day.
25:07 - 25:10
EN: First leg up, pause, second leg up.
25:19 - 25:25
EN: It’s okay to exit longs below this bear bar, just in case it’s a Parabolic Wedge
25:25 - 25:26
EN: and we sell off for the rest of the day.
25:26 - 25:28
EN: It’s okay to stay long.
25:28 - 25:31
EN: But if you do, the stop is all the way down here,
25:31 - 25:33
EN: not simply below the low of this bull bar.
25:35 - 25:37
EN: It’s an Expanding Triangle.
25:37 - 25:41
EN: We sold off, we sold off from a Higher High, and sold off from a Higher High.
25:41 - 25:43
EN: But a very Tight Bull Channel.
25:43 - 25:47
EN: That is a low probability short below the low of that bear bar.
25:48 - 25:51
EN: More likely the bulls will get at least a small leg up.
25:57 - 26:00
EN: Therefore, probably buyers below the low of this bear bar
26:00 - 26:02
EN: and at least a little bit more up.
26:03 - 26:06
EN: However, we have early Trading Range trading
26:06 - 26:08
EN: and bad follow-through after every bull bar.
26:08 - 26:11
EN: This might end up being a bull leg in a Trading Range,
26:11 - 26:13
EN: and if it is, we could get a very deep pullback
26:14 - 26:18
EN: and still be in a Trading Range and not a bear trend.
Slide 016
Time: 26:20
Bilingual Transcript
26:26 - 26:30
EN: Because of the weak follow-through after the bull bars
26:30 - 26:33
EN: and the early Trading Range trading, a lot of bulls will exit
26:33 - 26:36
EN: below the low of this bear bar for a failed breakout.
26:37 - 26:39
EN: Other bulls will hold, stop down here,
26:39 - 26:42
EN: bottom of the bull trend, and look to add on lower.
26:43 - 26:48
EN: They believe that if we sell off, the worst that will happen
26:48 - 26:53
EN: is we’ll get a bear leg in a Trading Range, and therefore if they hold long
26:53 - 26:55
EN: - let’s say they bought this close and they hold long.
26:55 - 26:58
EN: They can buy more lower, confident that the odds
26:58 - 27:02
EN: are we’ll get back up here before we fall below here.
27:02 - 27:03
EN: So they rely on their stop.
27:11 - 27:14
EN: Bear scalpers, they might sell below the low
27:14 - 27:17
EN: of this bear bar, arguing on a Parabolic Wedge.
27:17 - 27:22
EN: Three pushes up – one, two, three – and a failed breakout above the top
27:22 - 27:25
EN: of the Trading Range and a Lower High compared to yesterday’s high.
27:25 - 27:29
EN: It’s really not a very good-looking sell, but it’s a reasonable sell,
27:29 - 27:31
EN: especially if you can use a wide stop,
27:31 - 27:34
EN: maybe a Measured Move up, and sell more higher.
27:38 - 27:40
EN: I said not a high probability short.
27:40 - 27:43
EN: We have a lot of bull bars in a very Tight Channel.
27:43 - 27:47
EN: Higher probability to wait to sell after we see 3 or 4 bear bars
27:47 - 27:51
EN: or after we see a new high and a reversal down.
27:55 - 27:56
EN: Look what happened here.
Slide 017
Time: 27:55
Bilingual Transcript
27:57 - 27:58
EN: Strong bull trend.
27:58 - 27:59
EN: Bulls bought the close.
27:59 - 28:02
EN: Disappointed by these 3 bars, especially the 2 bear bars,
28:02 - 28:06
EN: and then look what happened when this bar got near that close.
28:06 - 28:10
EN: The Buy The Close bulls who bought here were disappointed by these 2 bear bars,
28:10 - 28:13
EN: and they immediately placed limit orders to get out
28:13 - 28:17
EN: at their original entry, at this close, maybe a little bit below.
28:17 - 28:20
EN: When the market got to their sell orders – remember, they’re long;
28:20 - 28:22
EN: they’re looking to exit – it sold off.
28:33 - 28:38
EN: These 2 consecutive bear bars have reversed this bull breakout,
28:38 - 28:41
EN: and now we have big up, big down, big confusion.
28:41 - 28:42
EN: Trading Range likely.
28:42 - 28:44
EN: It’s possible that this is the high of the day
28:44 - 28:47
EN: and that we just trade down for the rest of the day.
28:47 - 28:50
EN: More likely we’ll form some kind of a Higher Low
28:50 - 28:52
EN: and try to get back up here later in the day.
28:56 - 28:58
EN: We’re probably Always In Short.
28:59 - 29:02
EN: The bulls who bought this close gave up on this bar,
29:02 - 29:06
EN: and now we have consecutive bear bars closing on or near their lows.
29:06 - 29:08
EN: We’re probably going at least a little bit lower.
29:14 - 29:17
EN: Some of the bulls who bought for any reason
29:17 - 29:20
EN: and the bulls who are flat are looking to buy,
29:20 - 29:22
EN: and some of them will place a limit order
29:22 - 29:26
EN: to buy a 50% pullback from this low to that high.
29:27 - 29:29
EN: They’ll look to buy with a limit order somewhere in here.
Slide 018
Time: 29:31
Bilingual Transcript
29:38 - 29:41
EN: Other bulls – let’s say you buy this close
29:41 - 29:42
EN: - are looking to buy above a bull bar.
29:42 - 29:46
EN: Maybe above this bull bar, maybe above this bull reversal bar.
29:46 - 29:48
EN: Potential small Final Flag and Wedge.
29:49 - 29:53
EN: Down, up, down, up, and then down, up.
29:58 - 30:02
EN: Very Tight Bear Channel, and therefore the reversal up
30:02 - 30:06
EN: will probably be minor and we’ll probably end up in a Trading Range.
30:06 - 30:10
EN: Big up, big down, big confusion, probably sideways.
30:18 - 30:21
EN: We got a little bit more down and then we entered a Tight Trading Range.
Slide 019
Time: 30:20
Bilingual Transcript
30:24 - 30:28
EN: For the bears, we’re selling off and now we have a small Double Top.
30:29 - 30:31
EN: It’s a selloff, a bear trend.
30:31 - 30:33
EN: Always In Short maybe by this close.
30:33 - 30:36
EN: Therefore this is a Double Top bear flag.
30:37 - 30:39
EN: You can also call it a Wedge.
30:39 - 30:42
EN: Three pushes up – one, pullback, two, pullback, three.
30:42 - 30:47
EN: Does not look like a Wedge, but the computers see it as a type of Wedge.
30:50 - 30:55
EN: Bears know we’re probably Always In Short, and therefore they’ll look
30:55 - 30:59
EN: at any rally as a bear flag and they’ll look to sell a reversal down.
30:59 - 31:04
EN: They might sell below the low of this bar for a Double Top bear flag.
31:04 - 31:08
EN: A bear body – not particularly strong bear body, but still a bear body.
31:12 - 31:15
EN: We have a good rally and a Buy The Close rally.
31:15 - 31:19
EN: Even though the bulls could’ve gotten out here around breakeven,
31:19 - 31:22
EN: maybe a small loss, usually when you have a selloff
31:22 - 31:26
EN: that does not look particularly strong, it’ll be followed by a test back up,
31:26 - 31:28
EN: and this will end up as a Trading Range.
31:28 - 31:30
EN: Big up, big down, big confusion.
31:30 - 31:31
EN: Trading Range.
31:31 - 31:34
EN: Trading Ranges go up, they go down, and they go back up.
31:37 - 31:40
EN: The bears have a breakout and follow-through,
31:40 - 31:42
EN: but this looks like a 20 bar Tight Trading Range.
Slide 020
Time: 31:40
Bilingual Transcript
31:42 - 31:45
EN: Not particularly bearish, and therefore bulls
31:45 - 31:47
EN: will be looking to buy a reversal up.
31:51 - 31:55
EN: Is it a Wedge? Three legs down – one, pullback, two, pullback, three.
31:55 - 31:59
EN: It’s not really, but it’s still three attempts to sell off,
31:59 - 32:01
EN: and each attempt has failed.
32:01 - 32:06
EN: Here we have a bear bar and a follow-through bear bar and then a bull bar.
32:06 - 32:10
EN: This looks like a bear trap, trapping bears into selling below the bottom
32:10 - 32:14
EN: of this Trading Range, betting that we’ll get down to a new low of the day.
32:14 - 32:18
EN: The bulls bought that bear close, betting that the bears
32:18 - 32:22
EN: would not get another bear bar – in other words, bad follow-through
32:22 - 32:25
EN: - and they’ll look to buy the reversal up.
32:31 - 32:36
EN: If you buy for any reason – here or here, below the low of this bar,
32:36 - 32:41
EN: this close – your stop is still below the low of the bull reversal
32:41 - 32:47
EN: until the market breaks below it or until it becomes clearly strongly bearish.
32:47 - 32:49
EN: We became a little bit Always In Short here,
32:49 - 32:55
EN: but probably this is going to result in a small selloff and a Higher Low.
32:55 - 32:58
EN: The bars are not all that big compared to the bull bars,
32:59 - 33:00
EN: and even though we have a bear breakout
33:00 - 33:03
EN: and we’ll probably get some kind of a Measured Move down,
33:03 - 33:06
EN: we’re probably not going to get below the low of this bar.
33:11 - 33:14
EN: The market after this selloff is probably in a Trading Range.
33:15 - 33:18
EN: The bulls who bought for any reason know it’s in a Trading Range,
33:18 - 33:22
EN: and they’ll therefore look for rallies that reverse down and they’ll get out.
33:29 - 33:34
EN: Some bulls who bought this close, very disappointed by this, but they held long.
33:34 - 33:35
EN: Stop down here.
33:36 - 33:40
EN: They’ll look to buy more above a bull bar – maybe this, maybe that.
33:40 - 33:42
EN: Let’s say they buy above this bull bar right here.
33:43 - 33:45
EN: This is their average entry price.
33:45 - 33:48
EN: They bought here, they bought more here,
33:48 - 33:51
EN: and this is the midpoint of those two prices.
33:51 - 33:53
EN: A lot of the bulls who did take that buy
33:53 - 33:56
EN: are disappointed by how much selling that we’ve had.
33:56 - 34:00
EN: They’re looking to simply get out breakeven, and they’ll get out
34:00 - 34:04
EN: with a limit order right here at the midpoint of their two entry prices.
34:04 - 34:07
EN: Other bulls would have bought above this bar,
34:07 - 34:09
EN: and their midpoint would be a little bit higher.
Slide 021
Time: 34:15
Bilingual Transcript
34:15 - 34:18
EN: In this video I gave some day trading examples,
34:18 - 34:22
EN: and I tried to be more specific about how to manage trades.
34:26 - 34:27
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
34:27 - 34:29
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
34:29 - 34:33
EN: This is the third of six videos on swing trading examples.
Slide 022
Time: 34:37
Bilingual Transcript
No transcript segment aligned to this slide.