al-brooks-course
41A - Trading Breakouts
Raw transcript and slide notes for 41A - Trading Breakouts.
Overview
- Slides: 30
- Transcript segments: 858
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课
00:06 - 00:09
EN: This is the first of four videos on trading breakouts.
ZH: 接下来的4节课，我们来讲：如何交易突破行情
Slide 001
Time: 00:11
Bilingual Transcript
00:13 - 00:17
EN: I want to begin by talking about bull breakouts.
ZH: 首先我会讲到多头突破
00:17 - 00:21
EN: Next I want to talk about bull breakouts that are particularly strong.
ZH: 然后我会讲到特别强势的多头突破
00:21 - 00:26
EN: I call those Buy The Close bull trends because bulls are so eager to buy
ZH: 我称之为“买收盘”的上涨趋势，因为多头非常急切地买入
00:26 - 00:29
EN: that as soon as a bar closes, they’re buying at the market.
ZH: 在K线收盘的瞬间，他们会点击“市价买入”
00:29 - 00:32
EN: They’re buying the close of the bull bar, expecting higher prices.
ZH: 他们在阳线的收盘买入，预期价格会继续上涨
00:33 - 00:36
EN: Next I’ll talk about Sell The Close bear trends
ZH: 然后我会讲到“卖收盘”的下降趋势
00:36 - 00:39
EN: - bear breakouts that are so strong, traders are so eager to sell,
ZH: ——空头突破很强势，交易者非常急切地卖出
00:39 - 00:43
EN: that they are selling at the market on the close of a bear bar,
ZH: 他们在阴线收盘的时候市价卖出
00:43 - 00:45
EN: expecting immediate lower prices.
ZH: 预期价格会立刻继续下跌
Slide 002
Time: 00:47
Bilingual Transcript
00:50 - 00:54
EN: The market is reversing up here, and it has a series of bull bars,
ZH: 市场反转上涨到这里，有很多连续的阳线
00:54 - 00:58
EN: several closing on their highs, and the bull bodies are getting bigger.
ZH: 它们收在最高，体积越来越大
00:58 - 01:00
EN: It’s obviously a strong bull trend.
ZH: 显然这是一个强上涨趋势
01:03 - 01:08
EN: At the close of this bar and you had two choices, which would you take?
ZH: 在这根K线收盘时，你有两个选择，你会选哪个？
01:08 - 01:10
EN: Would you bet that it’s going to go down to this low,
ZH: 押注它会跌到这个低点？
01:11 - 01:14
EN: or instead would you bet that it would go that same distance up here?
ZH: 还是押注它会上涨到同样的距离到这里？
01:21 - 01:26
EN: In other words, would you buy this close and put a stop down here,
ZH: 换句话说，是在它的收盘买入，止损放在这里，止盈设置在这里；
01:24 - 01:33
EN: looking to take profits up here? Or would you sell this close
ZH: 换句话说，是在它的收盘买入，止损放在这里，止盈设置在这里； 还是在它的收盘做空，止损放在这里，押注价格会跌回到起涨点？
01:29 - 01:33
EN: and put a stop up here, betting that it would first go back down here?
ZH: 还是在它的收盘做空，止损放在这里，押注价格会跌回到起涨点？
01:39 - 01:42
EN: Clearly the momentum up is very strong.
ZH: 上涨的动能显然非常强势
01:42 - 01:48
EN: The odds are if it’s going here or here, it more likely will go here
ZH: 在这两个价格之中，更大的概率是先上涨到这里，
01:48 - 01:52
EN: before it goes here, and therefore the bull case is better.
ZH: 而不是先下跌到这里，所以做多是更好的选择
01:54 - 01:58
EN: The reward for the bulls buying here is the same as the risk.
ZH: 在这里买入做多，利润与风险相等
Slide 003
Time: 01:55
Bilingual Transcript
01:58 - 02:00
EN: Here’s the reward, here is the risk.
ZH: 利润是这些，风险也是这些
02:00 - 02:04
EN: The bears who sell here, their risk is here, their reward is here.
ZH: 如果在这里卖出做空，风险是这些，利润是这些
02:04 - 02:07
EN: They have reward equal to their risk.
ZH: 利润和风险相等
02:08 - 02:12
EN: So for the bulls and bears, both have the same risk and same reward,
ZH: 对于多头和空头而言，利润和风险一样
02:12 - 02:14
EN: so they have the same risk/reward ratio.
ZH: 也就是说他们的盈亏比一样
02:15 - 02:19
EN: But when you look at this, the probability clearly favors the bulls.
ZH: 但当你看到这样的行情，概率显然对多头有利
02:19 - 02:26
EN: That means the probability is 60% or more that it’s going to go
ZH: 这意味着60%甚至更高的概率， 市场会先涨到多头的目标位，而不是先打掉他们的止损
02:23 - 02:26
EN: to the bull target before it hits the bull stop.
ZH: 这意味着60%甚至更高的概率， 市场会先涨到多头的目标位，而不是先打掉他们的止损
02:27 - 02:38
EN: And therefore, with a probability that’s high, 60%, it’s mathematically okay
ZH: 当概率很高（至少60%）时，利润等于风险的交易在数学上是合理的
02:34 - 02:38
EN: to take a trade where the reward is equal to one time the risk.
ZH: 当概率很高（至少60%）时，利润等于风险的交易在数学上是合理的
02:38 - 02:40
EN: Here’s the reward.
ZH: 利润是这一段
02:40 - 02:47
EN: It’s equal exactly to the risk, but because the probability
ZH: 和风险相等，但因为概率至少有60%，所以在数学上是OK的
02:44 - 02:47
EN: is 60% or higher, the math is okay.
ZH: 和风险相等，但因为概率至少有60%，所以在数学上是OK的
02:47 - 02:49
EN: The Trader’s Equation is positive.
ZH: 交易者方程为正
02:56 - 03:00
EN: Easier to make money buying because the probability is greater,
ZH: 买入做多更容易赚钱，因为胜率更高
03:00 - 03:04
EN: even though the risk and reward is the same for the bulls and the bears.
ZH: 尽管多空双方的风险和利润是相等的
03:09 - 03:14
EN: One of the difficult things traders have is they’re surprised by
ZH: 交易者遇到的一个困难是：他们对市场的快速上涨感到惊讶
03:13 - 03:18
EN: how quickly the market’s going up, and they panic and they cannot decide.
ZH: 交易者遇到的一个困难是：他们对市场的快速上涨感到惊讶 他们很恐慌，无法做出决定——
03:18 - 03:21
EN: “Oh my gosh, it’s going up, but look how far away my stop has to be.”
ZH: “妈呀！暴涨了！止损这么远！！”
03:21 - 03:25
EN: You have to develop the habit of being comfortable with that
ZH: 你必须对这样的行情感到习惯
03:25 - 03:31
EN: and trading appropriately small so that your risk
ZH: 然后用小仓位进行交易，保证这笔交易的风险不会大于平时的其它交易
03:29 - 03:31
EN: is no greater than on any other trade.
ZH: 然后用小仓位进行交易，保证这笔交易的风险不会大于平时的其它交易
03:31 - 03:34
EN: The most important thing is when you see it going up like that
ZH: 最重要的是，当你看到这样的上涨时
03:34 - 03:36
EN: and you say, “Oh my gosh, I’m getting nervous.
ZH: 你心里在想：“天呐，我好紧张。
03:36 - 03:40
EN: I know it’s going up, but I don’t want to risk that much,” buy small.
ZH: 我知道还会涨，但我不想承担这么大的止损” 小仓位买入
03:40 - 03:43
EN: Just buy something, but you have to get long.
ZH: 不管仓位多小，关键是要买
Slide 004
Time: 03:45
Bilingual Transcript
03:45 - 03:47
EN: And in this case, this is what followed.
ZH: 后续的行情是这样的
03:50 - 03:52
EN: I’m always looking for signs of a strong trend.
ZH: 我总是在寻找能证明趋势很强势的信号
03:52 - 03:54
EN: Here we have a bull trend,
ZH: 这里有一个上涨趋势
03:56 - 04:01
EN: and therefore I’m looking for signs of how strong the bull trend is.
ZH: 因此我在寻找上涨趋势到底有多强的信号
04:01 - 04:05
EN: Here we have a pair of bull bars, both closing on their highs.
ZH: 这里有两根阳线，都收在高点
04:05 - 04:08
EN: The open of this bar is at the close of that bar.
ZH: 它的开盘价等于前一根K线的收盘价
04:08 - 04:11
EN: The open of this bar is at the close of that bar.
ZH: 它的开盘价等于前一根K线的收盘价
04:11 - 04:16
EN: As soon as this bar closed, a lot of traders therefore bought the market.
ZH: 说明在前一根K线收盘时，很多交易者点击“市价买入”
04:16 - 04:19
EN: And you can see the pullback from that close is very small.
ZH: 而且可以看到，前一根K线收盘之后的回调非常小 （注：即下影线非常短）
04:19 - 04:22
EN: The pullback from this close is small.
ZH: 它收盘之后的回调非常小
04:22 - 04:23
EN: The pullback from this close is small.
ZH: 它收盘之后的回调非常小
04:23 - 04:28
EN: That means that as soon as a bar closes, more traders are buying than selling.
ZH: 说明在K线收盘的时候，更多人买入，而不是卖出
04:31 - 04:34
EN: Consecutive strong bull bars.
ZH: 连续的强势阳线
04:34 - 04:39
EN: By strong bull bars, I mean decent size or big bodies
ZH: 强势阳线的意思是：体积较大，收盘在高位——
04:37 - 04:39
EN: and the bars closing near their highs.
ZH: 强势阳线的意思是：体积较大，收盘在高位——
04:44 - 04:48
EN: Closing on the high or only a very small tail on the top of the bar.
ZH: 收盘在最高点，或者只有一点点上影线
04:48 - 04:51
EN: That is a sign that the bulls are very eager to buy.
ZH: 这是多头非常渴望买入的信号
Slide 005
Time: 04:53
Bilingual Transcript
04:56 - 04:59
EN: Good Buying Pressure, and therefore when you see this
ZH: 买压很好，当你看到它们，
04:59 - 05:04
EN: and you look to the left, the context is good for higher prices.
ZH: 并且结合左边的背景，这些都有利于继续上涨
05:04 - 05:06
EN: So you look at this, here’s the context
ZH: 左边的背景包括：
05:06 - 05:10
EN: - a bull bar closing on its high following a series of good bull bars.
ZH: 大阳线收在最高，前面也是一系列不错的阳线
05:11 - 05:13
EN: That is good context for the bulls,
ZH: 背景对于多头有利
05:13 - 05:16
EN: and therefore they’ll buy expecting higher prices.
ZH: 所以他们会买入，预期价格继续上涨
05:19 - 05:22
EN: What you don’t see on this chart is the past several days,
ZH: 这张图上看不到过去几天的行情
05:22 - 05:25
EN: and this is what the past several days look like.
ZH: 小图上展现的是过去几天的K线
05:25 - 05:30
EN: This is where we are right here, and you can see we’re at the bottom
ZH: 这是市场目前所处的位置，可以看到正处于震荡区间的下沿
05:30 - 05:36
EN: of a Trading Range and we have an Expanding Triangle and a bull trend,
ZH: 而且是上涨趋势之后的扩张三角形， 所以可能是扩张三角形牛旗
05:34 - 05:36
EN: so it’s an Expanding Triangle bull flag.
ZH: 而且是上涨趋势之后的扩张三角形， 所以可能是扩张三角形牛旗
05:36 - 05:39
EN: We reversed up here from a new low.
ZH: 之前在这个新低反转上涨
05:39 - 05:42
EN: We have a new low here, and we’re starting to reverse up.
ZH: 现在又是新的低点，并且开始反转上涨
05:42 - 05:43
EN: This is another reason to buy.
ZH: 这是另一个买入的理由
05:43 - 05:51
EN: So if you saw the past several days, you would see that we are exactly
ZH: 所以如果你观察过去几天的行情， 你会看到现在正处于扩张三角形的底部
05:48 - 05:51
EN: at the bottom of an Expanding Triangle.
ZH: 所以如果你观察过去几天的行情， 你会看到现在正处于扩张三角形的底部
05:58 - 06:01
EN: It’s important always to remember the market cycle.
ZH: 市场周期永远都是非常重要的
06:01 - 06:05
EN: Only about 10% of the bars on any chart are in a strong breakout phase.
ZH: 任何K线图，只有约10%的K线处于强势突破阶段
06:06 - 06:11
EN: Most 2 to 3 bar breakouts are part of a Trading Range or a Broad Channel.
ZH: 大多数两三根K线的突破，只不过是震荡区间或宽通道中的一部分
06:12 - 06:20
EN: Only 5% of the bars on any chart are the strong breakout
ZH: 只有5~10%的K线是趋势开始时的强势突破，也就是这里的情况
06:17 - 06:20
EN: at the start of a trend, and that’s what we have here.
ZH: 只有5~10%的K线是趋势开始时的强势突破，也就是这里的情况
06:21 - 06:25
EN: And you can see whatever you want – 2 bars, 4 bars, 5 bars
ZH: 只有这里，连续几根阳线是强势的突破
06:25 - 06:27
EN: - compared to 100 bars on the screen.
ZH: 而整个屏幕上有大约100根K线
Slide 006
Time: 06:30
Bilingual Transcript
06:33 - 06:37
EN: Very important to decide early, and it’s also helpful to anticipate.
ZH: 快速做决定的能力非常重要，也要学会提前预判
06:37 - 06:41
EN: You see that we’re reversing up from a break below a range,
ZH: 你看到价格跌破了前期的区间，然后开始反转上涨
06:42 - 06:44
EN: and if you look back at the past several days,
ZH: 再结合过去几天的行情，
06:44 - 06:47
EN: you saw that we’re at the bottom of a range in a bull trend.
ZH: 现在正处于扩张三角形/震荡区间的底部
06:47 - 06:50
EN: And therefore, you have to be expecting a reversal up.
ZH: 因此你要能够预判价格会反转上涨
06:50 - 06:53
EN: When you see it begin to happen, do not deny it.
ZH: 当你看到市场开始上涨时，不要否认它
06:53 - 06:57
EN: You have to try to get long as early as you possibly can.
ZH: 你必须尽早入场做多
07:00 - 07:04
EN: As soon as you start to feel that “oh my gosh, I want a pullback,”
ZH: 一旦你开始想：能不能回调一下？
07:04 - 07:08
EN: that tells you that you have to get long and don’t wait for the pullback.
ZH: 那告诉你，你必须立刻买入，不要等待回调
07:09 - 07:15
EN: Here we have a pair of very big bull bars breaking
ZH: 这里有两根非常大的阳线，突破了当天前期的最高点，收盘在最高
07:12 - 07:15
EN: above the high of the day, closing on their highs.
ZH: 这里有两根非常大的阳线，突破了当天前期的最高点，收盘在最高
07:15 - 07:20
EN: Odds are we’re going up for at least a Measured Move
ZH: 大概率至少会涨到某个MM目标位—— 基于这些K线的高度
07:17 - 07:20
EN: based upon the height of these bars.
ZH: 大概率至少会涨到某个MM目标位—— 基于这些K线的高度
07:23 - 07:31
EN: You could argue that we gapped down, we sold off,
ZH: 空头会争论说：跳空低开，下跌，然后有一些反弹，所以这个是熊旗
07:27 - 07:31
EN: and then we rallied a little bit, and this is a bear flag.
ZH: 空头会争论说：跳空低开，下跌，然后有一些反弹，所以这个是熊旗
07:31 - 07:35
EN: But here, we’re clearly breaking above the top of a bear flag.
ZH: 但在这里，强势地向上突破了
07:35 - 07:38
EN: We’re getting a bull breakout above a bear flag.
ZH: 向上突破了熊旗
07:38 - 07:39
EN: The bulls are taking control.
ZH: 多头已经掌控了局势
07:40 - 07:43
EN: Strong follow-through after the breakout.
ZH: 突破之后有良好的跟随
07:43 - 07:47
EN: The close of this bar above the high of the day, closing on the high of the bar,
ZH: 这根K线的收盘价高于当天之前的最高点，收在最高点，
07:47 - 07:51
EN: and the second bar – now we have consecutive strong bull trend bars.
ZH: 然后又是一根大阳线——现在已经有连续的大阳线了
07:51 - 07:56
EN: The odds are high, 60% or more, that we’re going up
ZH: 概率很高，至少有60%，会继续上涨，涨到某个MM目标位
07:55 - 07:56
EN: for some kind of a Measured Move.
ZH: 概率很高，至少有60%，会继续上涨，涨到某个MM目标位
07:56 - 08:04
EN: Minimum target is the open of the first bar of the breakout to the close
ZH: 最低目标是从突破的第1根K线的开盘价， 到第2根K线的收盘价，往上翻一倍，大约在这个位置
08:00 - 08:04
EN: of the second bar of the breakout, which is somewhere up here.
ZH: 最低目标是从突破的第1根K线的开盘价， 到第2根K线的收盘价，往上翻一倍，大约在这个位置
08:08 - 08:11
EN: Good context, reversing up from below yesterday’s low.
ZH: 背景良好——从昨天的低点下方反转上涨
Slide 007
Time: 08:15
Bilingual Transcript
08:16 - 08:20
EN: There are all kinds of ways to buy, and it doesn’t matter which way you choose.
ZH: 有很多种方法买入，不管选择哪一种都可以
08:20 - 08:23
EN: All that matters is, you have to get long.
ZH: 关键是必须要买入
08:23 - 08:27
EN: You have to choose one of the ways, and if you cannot decide
ZH: 必须选择其中一种方式买入； 如果你无法决定，
08:28 - 08:31
EN: and you’re starting to panic and say “Oh my gosh, my stop is far away.
ZH: 如果开始恐慌：“哇，止损这么远？！
08:31 - 08:33
EN: I know I need to get long.
ZH: 我知道我应该买入，但是我想等回调。”
08:33 - 08:37
EN: I’m waiting for a pullback,” as soon as you start saying
ZH: 我知道我应该买入，但是我想等回调。” 当你产生“想要等回调”的念头时，不要等，直接买
08:35 - 08:37
EN: “I’m waiting for a pullback,” buy.
ZH: 当你产生“想要等回调”的念头时，不要等，直接买
08:37 - 08:38
EN: You know where the stop has to be.
ZH: 你知道止损的位置
08:38 - 08:40
EN: It has to be down here.
ZH: 止损在这个低点下方
08:40 - 08:43
EN: So you just buy and you trade a small enough position
ZH: 所以你直接买入，但是用很小的仓位，
08:43 - 08:45
EN: so that you can put your stop down here.
ZH: 这样就可以安心地把止损放在这里
08:46 - 08:48
EN: That’s the easiest way to buy.
ZH: 这是最简单的买入方式
08:48 - 08:51
EN: You’ve got 5 consecutive bull bars at this point.
ZH: 此时已经有连续5根阳线
08:52 - 08:53
EN: You’re starting to form a sixth one.
ZH: 第6根正在形成中
08:53 - 08:55
EN: You can just buy at the market.
ZH: 你可以直接市价买入
08:59 - 09:02
EN: Some traders will press their bets, which means they buy more,
ZH: 一些交易者会加仓，也就是买入更多
09:02 - 09:09
EN: and they’ll buy at new highs, betting that instead of getting profit-taking
ZH: 比如在创新高的时候继续买入，押注趋势不会在这里停下， 而是会上涨更多
09:06 - 09:09
EN: at the new high, the market’s going to go higher.
ZH: 比如在创新高的时候继续买入，押注趋势不会在这里停下， 而是会上涨更多
09:10 - 09:11
EN: That’s another way to buy.
ZH: 那是另一种买入方式
09:11 - 09:14
EN: So you buy the breakout to a new high.
ZH: 可以在突破创新高的时候买入
09:14 - 09:16
EN: We have a strong bull trend, we pulled back.
ZH: 强上涨趋势，回调
09:16 - 09:18
EN: The bull trend is resuming.
ZH: 上涨趋势正在恢复
09:18 - 09:21
EN: Buy above the high, buy above the prior high.
ZH: 在前期高点的上方挂突破买单
09:22 - 09:24
EN: You do that in strong breakouts.
ZH: 在强势突破期间可以这么做
09:24 - 09:28
EN: If the market is in a weak bull channel, you’ll take profits
ZH: 但是，如果市场处于弱上涨通道，那么多头应该在新高止盈
09:28 - 09:32
EN: on your longs at new highs, and bears will sell at new highs.
ZH: 同时空头会在新高卖出做空
09:32 - 09:36
EN: But nowhere in this entire chart was the market weak enough
ZH: 但在这里，不存在弱的宽上涨通道
09:36 - 09:43
EN: for the bulls to be selling new highs
ZH: 所以创新高的时候，多头不应该止盈，也没有空头去卖空
09:39 - 09:43
EN: and for the bears to be selling at prior highs for a short.
ZH: 所以创新高的时候，多头不应该止盈，也没有空头去卖空
09:46 - 09:49
EN: You can buy the close of any bar, like a bull bar,
ZH: 你可以在任何K线的收盘买入，比如阳线，
09:49 - 09:51
EN: but you can also buy the close of bear bars,
ZH: 但也可以在阴线的收盘买入
09:51 - 09:53
EN: betting that the reversal down will fail.
ZH: 押注反转下跌的尝试会失败
09:56 - 09:58
EN: You can buy above the high of the prior bar.
ZH: 你可以在前1根K线的高点上方挂突破买单
09:58 - 10:02
EN: Here we pulled back for a bar – this high is above the high of that bar.
ZH: 这里是回调——因为它的低点低于前一根K线的低点 （注：原文这里有一些口误）
10:02 - 10:05
EN: You can place a stop to buy above this bar, and you get filled here.
ZH: 你可以在它的高点上方挂突破买单，订单会在这里成交
10:05 - 10:07
EN: Or you can buy a High 2 buy.
ZH: 或者你可以在高2入场点买入
10:07 - 10:11
EN: Two legs down, one, pullback, two, and you have a bull bar.
ZH: 两段下跌——1，反弹，2，然后出现了一根阳线
10:11 - 10:14
EN: Buy on a stop above the high of this bar and get filled here.
ZH: 在这根K线的高点上方挂突破买单，订单会在这里成交
10:18 - 10:20
EN: You can buy below a bar.
ZH: 你可以在K线的低点下方挂现价买单
10:20 - 10:21
EN: Here’s a second entry short.
ZH: 这里是第2做空入场点
10:21 - 10:25
EN: This bar went below that bear bar, so that’s a first entry short,
ZH: 它跌破了前一根K线的低点，所以是第1做空入场点
10:25 - 10:28
EN: and now we have a Micro Double Top, and this would be a second entry short,
ZH: 然后有一个小双顶，这将是第2做空入场点
10:28 - 10:30
EN: betting on a failed breakout.
ZH: 空头押注向上的突破失败
10:30 - 10:33
EN: But you know the probability is that we’re going higher,
ZH: 但你知道大概率会继续上涨
10:34 - 10:37
EN: and therefore it makes more sense to buy at the low of this bar
ZH: 因此在这根K线的低点买入更加合理
10:37 - 10:41
EN: and you get filled right here, betting that the bear reversal will fail
ZH: 限价买单在这里成交，多头押注反转下跌的尝试会失败
10:41 - 10:44
EN: and become a bull flag and that the bull trend will resume.
ZH: 它会变成牛旗，然后上涨趋势恢复
10:48 - 10:50
EN: You can buy a strong bear close,
ZH: 你可以在强势阴线的收盘买入
10:50 - 10:54
EN: betting that it’ll be a failed reversal attempt.
ZH: 押注它会是失败的反转
Slide 008
Time: 11:00
Bilingual Transcript
11:00 - 11:02
EN: When the market’s in a strong bull breakout,
ZH: 如果市场处于强势的多头突破阶段
11:02 - 11:06
EN: it’s spending most of its time at the high of the breakout.
ZH: 它大部分时间都在创新高
11:06 - 11:08
EN: The market just keeps going up and up and up,
ZH: 市场不语，只是一味上涨、上涨、再上涨
11:09 - 11:11
EN: and beginners are always worried about risk.
ZH: 新手总是过于担心风险
11:11 - 11:15
EN: So if you’re buying any of these opportunities, your stop is down here,
ZH: 如果你在这里某个地方买入了，止损都在这个低点下方
11:15 - 11:21
EN: and the beginner looks at that and says, “Wow, you know, that’s 10 points down.
ZH: 新手会说：“哇！止损距离有10个点！我不想冒这么大的风险”
11:19 - 11:21
EN: I don’t want to risk 10 points.”
ZH: 新手会说：“哇！止损距离有10个点！我不想冒这么大的风险”
11:21 - 11:24
EN: If you cannot risk 10 points, do not take the trade.
ZH: 如果你无法承担10个点的风险，就不要做这笔交易
11:24 - 11:28
EN: But if you are able to risk the appropriate amount
ZH: 但如果你能够承担适当的风险
11:28 - 11:31
EN: - in this case, it would be about 10 points – then take the trade,
ZH: ——在这个案例中，止损大约是10个点——那么就可以交易
11:31 - 11:35
EN: because the probability is very high that you’re going to make money
ZH: 因为你有非常高的胜率，
11:35 - 11:39
EN: and that you’ll make a reward that’s at least as big as your Initial Risk,
ZH: 尽管利润目标和初始风险一样大，
11:40 - 11:43
EN: and therefore you have a positive Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 但数学期望是大于0的
11:48 - 11:51
EN: Some beginners don’t buy, and they’re hoping for a pullback
ZH: 一些新手不敢买，他们希望有一些回调
11:51 - 11:53
EN: because they want a smaller stop.
ZH: 因为他们想要更小的止损
11:53 - 11:56
EN: So for example, some beginner might not buy any of this
ZH: 例如，一些新手可能不会在这里追涨
11:56 - 12:01
EN: and then he’ll buy the High 2 bull flag and put a stop
ZH: 然后他在高2牛旗买入，并且把止损放在高2牛旗的下方 （注：合理，但小止损更容易被打到）
11:58 - 12:01
EN: below the bottom of the High 2 bull flag.
ZH: 然后他在高2牛旗买入，并且把止损放在高2牛旗的下方 （注：合理，但小止损更容易被打到）
12:01 - 12:04
EN: That’s okay, but you ended up missing a lot of the trade,
ZH: 这样做事OK的，但是会让你错过很多交易 （注：因为有的趋势一直上涨，没有两段回调的机会）
12:04 - 12:09
EN: and it’s possible that this pullback might not have come
ZH: 或者趋势继续上涨了很久，才出现这样的回调
12:07 - 12:09
EN: until the market was much higher.
ZH: 或者趋势继续上涨了很久，才出现这样的回调
12:09 - 12:11
EN: So you’re risking missing a good trade.
ZH: 所以等待回调就有错过机会的风险
12:13 - 12:17
EN: You don’t get a pullback until experts start to take profits.
ZH: 市场不会回调，直到机构开始止盈
12:17 - 12:19
EN: Why would anybody take profits here?
ZH: 为什么会有人在这里止盈？
12:19 - 12:22
EN: Because they bought down here, and their stop is far away.
ZH: 因为他们在这里买入，他们的止损很远
12:22 - 12:25
EN: Their risk is big, and they want to reduce their risk,
ZH: 风险越来越大，他们想要减少风险
12:25 - 12:26
EN: and then they take profits.
ZH: 所以他们止盈（至少一部分）
12:27 - 12:30
EN: If the market does not reverse down very much,
ZH: 如果市场没有大幅反转下跌 （注：说明空头没有足够的力量掌控市场）
12:30 - 12:35
EN: they’ll look to buy again on a reversal up – for example, a High 2 bull flag.
ZH: 他们就会在上涨时再次买入——比如，高2牛旗
12:35 - 12:37
EN: High 1, High 2.
ZH: 高1，高2
12:44 - 12:47
EN: All of these entries look good enough for experts,
ZH: 对于机构而言，所有的这些入场点都很好
12:47 - 12:53
EN: and they’re buying for any reason, knowing that all reversal attempts
ZH: 他们会以各种方式买入，因为他们知道所有反转下跌的尝试都会失败
12:50 - 12:53
EN: will probably fail and that the trend
ZH: 他们会以各种方式买入，因为他们知道所有反转下跌的尝试都会失败
12:53 - 12:55
EN: might go a long way before there is any pullback.
ZH: 趋势可能还会涨很久，然后才回调
12:56 - 12:59
EN: If you don’t buy, don’t buy, don’t buy, waiting for a pullback,
ZH: 如果你不买、不买、不买，而是一直等待回调
13:00 - 13:03
EN: you might not get this pullback until the market is way up here,
ZH: 可能一直等到这里才出现回调
13:03 - 13:05
EN: in which case you may have missed a huge bull trend.
ZH: 在那种情况下，就错过了很大一段趋势 （注：且剩余的利润更少了）
13:05 - 13:09
EN: Even waiting until this point, you still missed a lot of the bull trend.
ZH: 就算等到这里才买入，仍然错过了很大的涨幅
Slide 009
Time: 13:15
Bilingual Transcript
13:16 - 13:20
EN: There’s never a reason to miss a strong trend like this.
ZH: 永远不要错过这么强的趋势
13:20 - 13:22
EN: The market’s clearly Always In Long.
ZH: 市场显然处于单边上涨
13:22 - 13:27
EN: It’s clearly more likely to go higher than lower, and therefore you have to buy.
ZH: 显然更有可能上涨而不是下跌，因此你必须买入
13:27 - 13:30
EN: And when you look at this, you know where the stop has to be.
ZH: 当看到这个时，你知道止损在哪里
13:30 - 13:33
EN: It has to be down here, below the bottom of everything.
ZH: 初始止损要放在起涨点下方
13:33 - 13:40
EN: It’s possible that if you buy up here, you can put a stop
ZH: 如果你在这里追涨，也许可以把止损放在这两根大阳线的下方， 或者放在这4根阳线突破的起涨点下方
13:36 - 13:40
EN: below the 2-bar breakout or below a 4-bar breakout,
ZH: 如果你在这里追涨，也许可以把止损放在这两根大阳线的下方， 或者放在这4根阳线突破的起涨点下方
13:40 - 13:43
EN: but technically the ideal stop is down here.
ZH: 但从技术上讲，理想的初始止损在这里
13:44 - 13:47
EN: It’s okay to use the tighter stop after you see this close
ZH: 在看到这两根大阳线之后，可以把止损抬高上来
13:47 - 13:53
EN: because if this is the start of a bull trend, probably 90% chance
ZH: 因为如果这确实是上涨趋势的开始，
13:53 - 13:56
EN: it’s not going to come down below this 2-bar breakout,
ZH: 那么90%的概率这两根大阳线的低点不会被跌破
13:56 - 13:59
EN: and therefore the math is okay to use that tighter stop.
ZH: 所以把止损放在这里在数学上也是可以的
14:07 - 14:10
EN: Stop either below the bottom of the bull breakout
ZH: 止损要么在多头突破的起涨点下方
14:10 - 14:12
EN: or below the bottom of the bull trend.
ZH: 要么在整个上涨趋势的起涨点下方
14:12 - 14:17
EN: If you buy late, I think you could also put a stop
ZH: 如果入场较晚，我认为把止损放在这两根K线的低点下方也是合理的
14:15 - 14:17
EN: below the bottom of this 2-bar bull breakout.
ZH: 如果入场较晚，我认为把止损放在这两根K线的低点下方也是合理的
14:17 - 14:22
EN: But to me, I initially typically put my stop down here.
ZH: 对我而言，我通常会把初始止损放在这里
14:22 - 14:24
EN: I’m not going to let the stop get hit.
ZH: 但不会让它真的被打到 （注：这是防止意外的保护性止损）
14:24 - 14:28
EN: If it starts to reverse down, I’ll get out earlier, usually.
ZH: 如果市场开始反转下跌，我通常会提前离场
14:28 - 14:34
EN: But I need a starting point, and to me the best starting point
ZH: 但保护性止损是必要的，在我看来最好的选择就是上涨趋势的起涨点
14:32 - 14:34
EN: is below the bottom of the bull trend.
ZH: 但保护性止损是必要的，在我看来最好的选择就是上涨趋势的起涨点
14:35 - 14:38
EN: At this point we don’t know if the market’s going to be in a bull trend
ZH: 此时还不知道是不是上涨趋势，
14:38 - 14:42
EN: or a Trading Range, where the market could have a very deep pullback.
ZH: 也可能是震荡区间，那么就可能有很深的回调
14:42 - 14:46
EN: We do know the odds are it will not be in a bear trend unless it trades down
ZH: 但有一点是清楚的，市场暂时不是下降趋势
14:46 - 14:49
EN: and trades up, and gets some kind of a Double Top.
ZH: 除非下跌、再上涨，形成双顶反转的结构
14:49 - 14:57
EN: And therefore, because of the possibility that this ends up
ZH: 由于它可能是震荡区间中的上涨波段，所以需要宽止损
14:53 - 14:57
EN: as a bull leg in a Trading Range, you need the wide stop.
ZH: 由于它可能是震荡区间中的上涨波段，所以需要宽止损
14:57 - 14:59
EN: Because a Trading Range can have a very deep pullback,
ZH: 震荡区间内可能会有非常深的回调
14:59 - 15:03
EN: even below this low; however, it should not get below this low.
ZH: 甚至会跳到这个低点的下方；然不应该低于这个低点
15:09 - 15:10
EN: Doesn’t matter where you buy.
ZH: 不论你在哪里买入
15:10 - 15:14
EN: You know where the stop is, and you can calculate what your risk is.
ZH: 你知道止损在哪里，所以可以计算出风险是多少
15:14 - 15:18
EN: You have to trade small enough so that the risk is acceptable.
ZH: 你必须用小仓位交易，保证能够接受这样的风险
15:19 - 15:26
EN: And if you’re thinking about possibly adding on,
ZH: 如果你还考虑在深度回调时加仓的话， 初始仓位就要更小
15:22 - 15:26
EN: if there is in fact a very deep pullback, you have to trade small enough
ZH: 如果你还考虑在深度回调时加仓的话， 初始仓位就要更小
15:26 - 15:33
EN: so that the combined risk from your additional position
ZH: 保证加仓之后，总的风险不会比平时其它的交易更大
15:30 - 15:33
EN: is no greater than on any other trade.
ZH: 保证加仓之后，总的风险不会比平时其它的交易更大
Slide 010
Time: 15:35
Bilingual Transcript
15:39 - 15:42
EN: Let’s say you bought the close of the second bar.
ZH: 假设你在第2根大阳线的收盘买入
15:42 - 15:46
EN: Clearly at this point the market has a very high probability of going higher,
ZH: 显然此时有很高的概率会继续上涨
15:46 - 15:50
EN: and at least a 60% probability of going up for some kind of a Measured Move.
ZH: 并且至少有60%的概率会涨到某个MM目标位
15:53 - 15:55
EN: Put the stop below the bottom of the bull trend,
ZH: 把止损放在上涨趋势的起涨点下方
15:57 - 16:01
EN: or possibly below the bottom of this very strong bull breakout
ZH: 或者放在这个多头突破的起涨点下方
16:03 - 16:08
EN: - or as I said, you could also put it below the bottom of these 2 bull bars
ZH: ——或者放在这两根大阳线的低点下方
16:08 - 16:12
EN: because if your premise is right that this is the start of a bull trend,
ZH: 因为，如果你的前提是对的，如果这真的是上涨趋势的开始
16:12 - 16:15
EN: it will not get below these 2 bull bars.
ZH: 那么这两根大阳线就不应该被跌破
16:15 - 16:21
EN: However, as I said, it could drop below these 2 bull bars,
ZH: 然而刚才也讲到，市场可能处于震荡区间，可能有深度回调
16:19 - 16:21
EN: and at that point it would be in a Trading Range,
ZH: 然而刚才也讲到，市场可能处于震荡区间，可能有深度回调
16:22 - 16:24
EN: and you don’t want to get stopped out there
ZH: 交易者不想在这里被止损离场
16:24 - 16:27
EN: because chances are it’ll still come back up here.
ZH: 因为仍然有较大的概率会涨回到这里
16:28 - 16:30
EN: And therefore, that’s really not a great stop.
ZH: 因此把止损放在这里不是一个特别好的选择
16:31 - 16:33
EN: It’s a good stop if you’re only willing to hold on
ZH: 如果你只愿意在强上涨趋势中坚定持有，
16:33 - 16:36
EN: if it remains in a strong bull trend but you’re not willing
ZH: 而不愿意在震荡区间中持有的话
16:36 - 16:38
EN: to hold on if it’s going to be in a Trading Range.
ZH: 把止损放在这里是可以的
16:38 - 16:42
EN: If it drops below here, it’s probably in a Trading Range.
ZH: 如果这个低点被跌破，说明市场很可能处于震荡区间
16:46 - 16:47
EN: For some traders, they look at this and say,
ZH: 对于一些交易者而言，他们心想：
16:47 - 16:53
EN: “Gosh, you know, I really want to buy, but I can’t risk all the way down here.
ZH: “天呐，我真的很想买，但我无法承受这么大的风险，甚至这里也不行”
16:52 - 16:56
EN: I can’t even risk here.” Well, you can use a tighter stop.
ZH: “天呐，我真的很想买，但我无法承受这么大的风险，甚至这里也不行” 好吧，那你只能使用窄止损
16:57 - 17:00
EN: Typically, traders will buy a 50% pullback
ZH: 通常，多头会在50%回调的地方买入
17:00 - 17:04
EN: - here’s a very strong bull breakout – traders will buy a 50% pullback.
ZH: 这是非常强势的多头突破——多头会在50%回调买入
17:04 - 17:08
EN: You could put a stop slightly below 50% or you could say,
ZH: 你可以把止损放在略低于50%回调的地方，
17:08 - 17:12
EN: “Well, this breakout bar is so strong I don’t want it to drop below that bar,”
ZH: 或者你可以说：“既然这根大阳线这么强势，它的低点不应该被跌破”
17:12 - 17:16
EN: and therefore if you want you could use a stop below the low of that bar.
ZH: 如果你愿意的话，可以把止损放在它的低点下方
17:18 - 17:22
EN: Whenever you use a tighter stop, you improve your risk/reward ratio.
ZH: 当你使用窄止损的时候，盈亏比就会变好
17:22 - 17:27
EN: Any time you have a better risk/reward ratio, what does that do to probability?
ZH: 任何时候，如果你的盈亏比更好，对概率会有什么影响呢？
17:28 - 17:30
EN: It always reduces the probability of making money.
ZH: 赚钱的概率总是会降低
17:31 - 17:35
EN: Mathematically, it’s probably okay to use any of these stops,
ZH: 从数学的角度看，也许这些止损都是合理的
17:35 - 17:39
EN: but I think the best Trader’s Equation comes from using the wide stop.
ZH: 但其中使用宽止损的数学期望会是最好的
17:43 - 17:48
EN: You could use a money stop – for example, here’s 5 points from here to here;
ZH: 你也可以使用固定金额止损——比如，从这里到这里是5个点
17:48 - 17:52
EN: you’d put a stop 5 points down – or as I said,
ZH: 你可以把止损放在5个点的地方——
17:52 - 17:55
EN: you could put a stop a little bit more than a 50% pullback.
ZH: 或者像刚才所说，把止损放在50%回调的下方
17:55 - 18:00
EN: A 50% pullback of this 2-bar breakout or a 50% pullback of the entire rally.
ZH: 这两根大阳线的50%，或整个上涨波段的50%
Slide 011
Time: 18:05
Bilingual Transcript
18:10 - 18:14
EN: Again, if you use a tighter stop, you’re going to lose more often,
ZH: 再次强调，如果你使用窄止损，止损会更频繁地被打到
18:14 - 18:16
EN: but you’ll lose less.
ZH: 但每次的亏损更小
18:16 - 18:21
EN: A wider stop, you lose a lot when you do lose, but you lose less often.
ZH: 而使用宽止损，每次被打到的时候会亏更多，但次数较少
18:21 - 18:24
EN: It doesn’t matter which stop you use.
ZH: 窄止损和宽止损都是可以的
18:24 - 18:28
EN: If they’re both reasonable and you take 100 trades, you’re going to make
ZH: 只要它们都是合理的，然后用它们各自进行100笔交易
18:28 - 18:33
EN: as much money using the tighter stops as you do using the wider stops.
ZH: 最终两种方法赚到的钱是差不多的
18:36 - 18:42
EN: Can you buy here and risk 2 ticks? Can you buy here and risk 100 points,
ZH: 在这里买入，设置2 ticks的止损可以吗？ 或者设置100个点的止损可以吗？
18:42 - 18:44
EN: far below the bottom of the screen?
ZH: 100个点远远超出屏幕的显示范围了。
18:44 - 18:47
EN: No, because neither one of those is reasonable.
ZH: 不可以，因为这两者都不合理
18:47 - 18:48
EN: They’re both unreasonable.
ZH: （重复）两者都不合理
18:48 - 18:51
EN: If you use an unreasonable stop, it’s a losing strategy.
ZH: 如果使用不合理的止损，那么就是失败的策略
18:51 - 18:53
EN: You will lose money.
ZH: 你会亏钱
18:58 - 19:02
EN: Some traders prefer high probability and they’ll use the wider stop.
ZH: 一些交易者偏好高胜率，他们会使用较宽的止损
19:02 - 19:06
EN: Other traders are very concerned about risk, and they’ll use the tighter stop.
ZH: 一些交易者更关注风险，他们会使用较窄的止损
19:06 - 19:10
EN: As long as the stop is reasonable, it’s a good strategy.
ZH: 只要止损是合理的，那就是一个好的策略
Slide 012
Time: 19:15
Bilingual Transcript
19:17 - 19:19
EN: I said there are lots of reasons to buy.
ZH: 我说过，有很多种买入的方式
19:19 - 19:21
EN: You could buy for any reason – at the market, at the market,
ZH: 你可以在任何地方买入——市价，市价，
19:21 - 19:25
EN: above bar, above bar, below bar, above a new high.
ZH: 在K线上方，在K线上方，在K线的下方，突破创新高
19:25 - 19:26
EN: It doesn’t matter.
ZH: 都可以
19:26 - 19:30
EN: It doesn’t matter which of these entries you take; the stop is the same.
ZH: 无论你在哪里入场，初始止损位置都是一样的
19:30 - 19:32
EN: It’s all the same trade.
ZH: 都是一样的交易
19:32 - 19:36
EN: You’re buying a bull breakout, and the stop for all of them is the same.
ZH: 都是在多头突破时买入，所以止损位置都一样
19:39 - 19:43
EN: Once you start to reverse up strongly, you can use a tighter stop.
ZH: 一旦再次强势突破创新高，就可以抬高止损
19:44 - 19:48
EN: But at least initially, for any of these entries, the stop is down here
ZH: 但刚开始的时候，所有的这些入场点，止损都在这里
19:48 - 19:51
EN: - or one of these stops, but for me I would use the wider stop.
ZH: ——或者这几个也合理——但对我而言，我会选择较宽的初始止损
19:53 - 19:57
EN: The location of your stop never depends on where you enter.
ZH: 止损位置从来不取决于入场的位置
19:57 - 20:00
EN: The entry price has nothing to do with the stop.
ZH: 止损与入场价格无关
20:00 - 20:05
EN: The stop has to do with what took place to the left,
ZH: 止损只和左边发生的事情有关，而不是你在哪里入场
20:03 - 20:05
EN: not the time that you enter.
ZH: 止损只和左边发生的事情有关，而不是你在哪里入场
Slide 013
Time: 20:10
Bilingual Transcript
20:12 - 20:16
EN: Once there’s a strong breakout, maybe 2 or 3 bull bars, 3 or 4 bull bars,
ZH: 一旦出现强势突破，比如两三根、三四根阳线，
20:17 - 20:21
EN: you raise your stop to below the bottom of the most recent strong leg up.
ZH: 此时可以把止损抬高到最近一个强势上涨波段的起涨点下方
20:21 - 20:29
EN: This becomes a major Higher Low – major because as long
ZH: 它变成了重要的低点—— 只要价格维持在这个低点上方，上涨趋势就完好无损
20:25 - 20:29
EN: as the market stays above this Higher Low, the bull trend is intact.
ZH: 它变成了重要的低点—— 只要价格维持在这个低点上方，上涨趋势就完好无损
20:29 - 20:33
EN: If it falls below a major Higher Low like this,
ZH: 如果像这样的重要低点被跌破，
20:33 - 20:35
EN: then it’s no longer a bull trend.
ZH: 那么它就不再是上涨趋势
20:35 - 20:38
EN: It’s then either a Trading Range or a bear trend.
ZH: 它要么变成震荡区间，甚至是下降趋势
20:38 - 20:41
EN: If you’re buying on the premise that it’s a bull trend
ZH: 如果你买入的前提是：市场处于上涨趋势
20:41 - 20:45
EN: and it falls below this low, your premise is no longer valid
ZH: 但这个低点被跌破了，那么你的前提就不再成立
20:45 - 20:47
EN: and therefore you do not want to be long.
ZH: 因此就不能继续做多了
20:47 - 20:49
EN: You want to get out and then reassess.
ZH: 你需要先离场，然后重新评估
20:53 - 20:56
EN: After every strong breakout, you raise your stop.
ZH: 每次强势突破之后抬高止损
20:56 - 21:02
EN: That’s called trailing your stop to below the bottom
ZH: 这叫做追踪止损——把止损移动到最近一次强势突破的起涨点下方
20:59 - 21:02
EN: of the most recent strong bull breakout.
ZH: 这叫做追踪止损——把止损移动到最近一次强势突破的起涨点下方
21:05 - 21:07
EN: We got another breakout.
ZH: 再次突破
21:07 - 21:11
EN: It’s less strong, but I would still raise my stop,
ZH: 没有那么强势，但我仍然会抬高止损
21:11 - 21:14
EN: usually to the bottom of the entire rally.
ZH: 通常会抬高到整个上涨波段的起点
21:14 - 21:18
EN: However, if the trend is strong, it should not fall below the bottom
ZH: 然而，如果趋势足够强势，这个小突破的起涨点就不应该被跌破
21:18 - 21:22
EN: of this little breakout, so this is a reasonable stop as well.
ZH: 所以把止损放在这里也是合理的
21:22 - 21:24
EN: This is a lot of Trading Range price action,
ZH: 这里有很多震荡区间的价格行为
21:24 - 21:27
EN: and the market might be evolving into a Trading Range.
ZH: 市场可能正在转变为震荡区间
21:33 - 21:36
EN: Is this a major Higher Low? I don’t think so.
ZH: 它是一个重要的低点吗？我不这么认为
21:36 - 21:39
EN: I think this is probably more the major Higher Low.
ZH: 我认为它更像是重要的低点
21:39 - 21:46
EN: In general, it’s better to put your stop below the most recent major Higher Low
ZH: 通常来说，在上涨趋势中，把止损放在最近的重要低点下方会比较好
21:43 - 21:46
EN: if you are trading it like a bull trend.
ZH: 通常来说，在上涨趋势中，把止损放在最近的重要低点下方会比较好
21:46 - 21:48
EN: If you’re buying here looking for a scalp,
ZH: 如果你在这里买入的目标是做一笔剥头皮
21:48 - 21:51
EN: then you’re not really trading it like a bull trend.
ZH: 那么你并不是把它当做上涨趋势来交易
21:51 - 21:54
EN: Therefore, you might use a tighter stop.
ZH: 因此你可以使用较窄的止损
21:54 - 21:59
EN: However, if the market is up here and it falls below a major Higher Low,
ZH: 如果市场从这里向下跌破了重要的低点
21:59 - 22:01
EN: if it’s up here and it falls below a major Higher Low,
ZH: 从这里向下跌破了重要的低点
22:01 - 22:04
EN: if it’s up here and it falls below a major Higher Low,
ZH: 从这里向下跌破了重要的低点
22:04 - 22:09
EN: then your premise of a strong bull trend is no longer valid.
ZH: 那么强上涨趋势的前提就不再成立
22:10 - 22:14
EN: The market is now something else, like a Trading Range or a bear trend.
ZH: 市场现在处于其它周期，比如震荡区间，甚至是下降趋势
22:14 - 22:17
EN: If you’re holding long because you believe it’s a bull trend
ZH: 如果你做多了，因为你认为这是上涨趋势
22:17 - 22:21
EN: and now you have evidence that it’s no longer a bull trend, you have to get out.
ZH: 但现在有证据表明它不再处于上涨趋势，你就必须离场
22:21 - 22:26
EN: And therefore it makes sense to get stopped out below a major Higher Low.
ZH: 所以在重要的低点下方止损离场是合理的
Slide 014
Time: 22:30
Bilingual Transcript
22:31 - 22:35
EN: A very strong bull trend is a Buy The Close bull trend.
ZH: “买收盘”的上涨趋势是非常强的趋势
22:35 - 22:39
EN: It’s the kind of trend where as soon as a bar closes,
ZH: 在这种趋势中，K线收盘的瞬间会有很多交易者买入
22:38 - 22:39
EN: traders are looking to buy.
ZH: 在这种趋势中，K线收盘的瞬间会有很多交易者买入
Slide 015
Time: 22:40
Bilingual Transcript
22:43 - 22:44
EN: Here we have a very strong bull trend.
ZH: 这里有一个非常强的上涨趋势
22:44 - 22:48
EN: You can see 3 bull bars, 4, 5, 6, 7 bull bars,
ZH: 你可以看到3根阳线，4、5、6、7根阳线
22:48 - 22:50
EN: many of them closing on their highs.
ZH: 其中很多收在高位
22:50 - 22:55
EN: After the third or fourth or fifth bar, I call this a Buy The Close bull trend,
ZH: 在看到连续3、4、5根K线之后，我称之为买收盘的上涨趋势
22:55 - 22:57
EN: and here it resumed as well.
ZH: 还有这里也是
22:57 - 23:01
EN: Once it’s starting to do this, it’s no longer Buy The Close.
ZH: 一旦开始这样，它就不再是买收盘的上涨趋势
23:01 - 23:04
EN: It’s still a bull trend, but it’s no longer a Buy The Close bull trend.
ZH: 它仍然是上涨趋势，但不再是买收盘的上涨趋势
23:04 - 23:09
EN: And right now I’m going to be talking
ZH: 现在我想讲一讲这种趋势和这种趋势
23:06 - 23:09
EN: about this kind of a trend and this kind of a trend.
ZH: 现在我想讲一讲这种趋势和这种趋势
23:15 - 23:21
EN: The simplest approach is, when you think the market is beginning
ZH: 当你认为市场开始进入买收盘的上涨趋势时， 最简单的方法是直接实价买入
23:18 - 23:21
EN: to enter a Buy The Close trend, is simply to buy at the market.
ZH: 当你认为市场开始进入买收盘的上涨趋势时， 最简单的方法是直接实价买入
23:21 - 23:23
EN: So you buy at the close of this bar.
ZH: 比如在这根K线的收盘买入
23:23 - 23:29
EN: Right before the close or right after the close,
ZH: 在它收盘的时候，直接点击“市价买入”； 这里、这里、和这里也是一样
23:25 - 23:29
EN: you just hit “Buy the Market.” Same here, here, and here.
ZH: 在它收盘的时候，直接点击“市价买入”； 这里、这里、和这里也是一样
23:33 - 23:36
EN: You could wait for a breakout and a follow-through bar.
ZH: 你可以等待突破和跟随K线
23:36 - 23:40
EN: At this point, once you’ve had 2 big bars, consecutive big bars
ZH: 此时，一旦有了连续两根大阳线
23:40 - 23:44
EN: that are very different from the bars that were before,
ZH: 和之前的K线明显都不一样
23:44 - 23:46
EN: the odds are high that you’re going higher.
ZH: 那么上涨的概率就非常大
23:46 - 23:50
EN: So let’s say you decide that the market began Buy The Close at this point.
ZH: 假设你认为，市场从这里开始进入买收盘的上涨趋势
23:50 - 23:53
EN: As soon as that bar closes, you place an order to buy at the market.
ZH: 在它收盘的时候，你就下单市价买入
23:54 - 23:57
EN: Alternatively, you can buy right before it closes,
ZH: 或者，你可以在它收盘前买入
23:57 - 23:59
EN: or you can buy the open of this bar.
ZH: 或者在下一根K线开盘时买入
24:02 - 24:04
EN: The bull trend is resuming.
ZH: 上涨趋势正在恢复
24:04 - 24:05
EN: We have 3 bull bars.
ZH: 有3根阳线
24:05 - 24:09
EN: Now we have a bar closing on its high, so you can buy that close,
ZH: 现在又有一根阳线收在最高，所以你可以在它的收盘买入
24:09 - 24:12
EN: buy that close, and keep doing it until the market
ZH: 在它的收盘买入，持续这样做，
24:12 - 24:15
EN: is no longer in a Buy The Close type of rally.
ZH: 直到市场不在处于买收盘的上涨趋势
24:22 - 24:27
EN: Beginner traders should try to minimize the number of things that they’re doing.
ZH: 新手不应该同时处理太多事情
24:27 - 24:31
EN: They should try to trade every trade in a way that’s similar to prior trades,
ZH: 而是应该重复做一些简单的、相似的交易
24:31 - 24:36
EN: and therefore beginner traders might find it difficult to buy the close,
ZH: 所以新手交易者可能觉得“买收盘”这种方法很难
24:36 - 24:39
EN: especially when the market is racing up very quickly like that.
ZH: 尤其是当市场像这样快速上涨时
24:39 - 24:43
EN: As an alternative, they should consider entering with a stop.
ZH: 作为一种替代方案，他们可以考虑用突破单入场
24:43 - 24:46
EN: For example, if they see a big bull bar closing on its high
ZH: 例如，如果看到一根大阳线收在最高
24:46 - 24:49
EN: and they think the market is entering a Buy The Close rally,
ZH: 并且他们认为市场正处于买收盘的上涨趋势
24:49 - 24:55
EN: as soon as the bar closes they can place an order
ZH: 在K线收盘的时候，可以在它的最高点上方挂突破买单
24:52 - 24:55
EN: to buy on a stop just above the high of the bar.
ZH: 在K线收盘的时候，可以在它的最高点上方挂突破买单
24:57 - 24:59
EN: They don’t have to do it on every bar.
ZH: 不需要每根K线都这么做
24:59 - 25:04
EN: They’re looking to get long, and doing it on any of these bars is reasonable.
ZH: 如果想要做多，在这里任何一根K线上这样做都是合理的
25:04 - 25:11
EN: As soon as this bar closes, you place an order to buy on a stop just
ZH: 一旦这根K线收盘，就在它的最高点上方挂突破买单—— 任何收在最高的阳线都可以这么做
25:08 - 25:11
EN: above its high – and that’s true for any of these bull bars closing
ZH: 一旦这根K线收盘，就在它的最高点上方挂突破买单—— 任何收在最高的阳线都可以这么做
25:11 - 25:17
EN: on their highs until the market transitions
ZH: 直到市场过渡到其他阶段，不再处于买收盘的上涨趋势
25:14 - 25:17
EN: into something other than a Buy The Close rally.
ZH: 直到市场过渡到其他阶段，不再处于买收盘的上涨趋势
25:17 - 25:20
EN: It’s still probably a bull flag at this point,
ZH: 此时它仍然可能是一个牛旗
25:20 - 25:24
EN: and you could continue to buy above bars with a stop.
ZH: 你可以继续在K线高点上方挂突破买单
25:24 - 25:27
EN: But this particular video is on Buy The Close markets,
ZH: 不过这节课的重点还是来讲买收盘的上涨趋势
25:27 - 25:30
EN: and this is Buy The Close, this is Buy The Close.
ZH: 这是买收盘（的上涨趋势），这里也是
25:30 - 25:32
EN: This is still a pretty strong bull trend.
ZH: 后面仍然是相当强势的上涨趋势
25:32 - 25:40
EN: It’s a Small Pullback Bull Trend, and you can still buy with a stop
ZH: 所有的回调都很小，看到收在高位的阳线， 可以在其上方挂突破买单做多
25:36 - 25:40
EN: above the high of every bull bar closing near its high.
ZH: 所有的回调都很小，看到收在高位的阳线， 可以在其上方挂突破买单做多
25:40 - 25:43
EN: But right now, I’m talking about Buy The Close markets.
ZH: 但现在，我们着重讲买收盘的趋势
Slide 016
Time: 25:45
Bilingual Transcript
25:51 - 25:54
EN: Some traders will buy the close once and then just hold.
ZH: 一些交易者买入之后就持有
25:54 - 25:57
EN: Other traders will buy the close and then they get another buy signal,
ZH: 一些交易者买入之后，看到新的做多信号
25:57 - 26:00
EN: they’ll buy more, they’ll buy more, they’ll buy more, they’ll buy more.
ZH: 他们会加仓、加仓、加仓、加仓
26:00 - 26:06
EN: You obviously can only do that if the position size
ZH: 显然，只有在仓位很小、不会给账户带来太大风险的时候才能这样做
26:04 - 26:06
EN: does not create too much risk for your account.
ZH: 显然，只有在仓位很小、不会给账户带来太大风险的时候才能这样做
26:06 - 26:09
EN: Some traders will buy the close and then scalp out,
ZH: 一些交易者在买收盘之后，赚快钱离场
26:09 - 26:12
EN: and then they’ll look for another strong close and buy again.
ZH: 如果又有阳线收在高位，他们就再次买入（并再次剥头皮离场）
26:13 - 26:20
EN: As long as you’re getting a series of consecutive, good size bull bodies
ZH: 只要你看到一系列体积较大的阳线收在最高， 那就是买收盘的上涨趋势
26:17 - 26:20
EN: with the bars closing on their highs, it’s a Buy The Close market.
ZH: 只要你看到一系列体积较大的阳线收在最高， 那就是买收盘的上涨趋势
26:20 - 26:26
EN: Usually you need 3 or 4 bull bars
ZH: 通常需要3~4根阳线，才能判断市场进入了买收盘的上涨趋势
26:23 - 26:26
EN: before you decide that it’s a Buy The Close bull trend.
ZH: 通常需要3~4根阳线，才能判断市场进入了买收盘的上涨趋势
26:35 - 26:39
EN: One of my goals in life, although I’ve never done it,
ZH: 我交易生涯的目标之一，尽管目前还没有完成，
26:39 - 26:43
EN: is once I see a Buy The Close bull trend, just keep buying every close
ZH: 就是当看到一个买收盘的上涨趋势时， 我想要在每根K线的收盘都买入
26:43 - 26:46
EN: until it’s no longer a Buy The Close bull trend.
ZH: 直到市场不再处于买收盘的上涨趋势时
26:46 - 26:48
EN: I don’t know if I’ll ever do that.
ZH: 不知道我会不会那样做
26:48 - 26:54
EN: Usually I have a big enough position early on
ZH: 通常我在趋势的早期就建立了足够大的仓位， 所以我不想一直增加仓位（风险）
26:51 - 26:54
EN: so that I don’t want to be increasing my position.
ZH: 通常我在趋势的早期就建立了足够大的仓位， 所以我不想一直增加仓位（风险）
26:54 - 26:57
EN: But at least that’s one of my fantasies in life,
ZH: 但至少那是我人生中的一个目标
26:57 - 27:00
EN: that someday I’ll just buy a close, buy a close, buy a close,
ZH: 有一天我会不断的买收盘、买收盘、买收盘
27:00 - 27:04
EN: and end up buying 10 closes in a Buy The Close bull trend,
ZH: 最终在一个买收盘的上涨趋势中，不断买收盘加仓10次
27:04 - 27:07
EN: or sell 10 closes in a Sell The Close bear trend.
ZH: 或者在一个卖收盘的下降趋势中，不断卖收盘加仓10次
27:07 - 27:13
EN: I’ll probably never do it because it would generate more risk
ZH: 也许我永远不会那样做，因为风险会比预期更大
27:11 - 27:13
EN: than what I like ever having.
ZH: 也许我永远不会那样做，因为风险会比预期更大
27:18 - 27:22
EN: When a Buy The Close bull trend forms in the final hour,
ZH: 如果在尾盘最后一个小时形成了买收盘的上涨趋势，
27:22 - 27:26
EN: traders have to be very quick to exit, and I talk about this
ZH: 交易者必须非常迅速地止盈离场，
27:26 - 27:28
EN: in the video on Trading at the End of the Day.
ZH: 在讲尾盘交易的课程中详细探讨了这一点 （注：第48单元的最后3节课）
27:37 - 27:40
EN: When the market’s in a Buy The Close bull trend,
ZH: 如果市场处于买收盘的上涨趋势，
27:40 - 27:42
EN: there’s a lot of profit potential.
ZH: 潜在的利润非常大
27:42 - 27:49
EN: Some traders just get scared, and they don’t want to buy closes
ZH: 一些新手因为止损很远而感到害怕， 于是就不敢买收盘，想要等回调
27:45 - 27:49
EN: because they see the stop is far away, and they just wait for a pullback.
ZH: 一些新手因为止损很远而感到害怕， 于是就不敢买收盘，想要等回调
27:49 - 27:51
EN: But by the time you get a pullback,
ZH: 然而当回调真的出现时，
27:51 - 27:54
EN: it’ll begin to look like the market might be reversing.
ZH: 又觉得看起来是反转（还是不敢买）
27:55 - 27:58
EN: Three highs, we reversed down, reversed down, reversed down.
ZH: 3个高点——下跌、下跌、下跌
27:58 - 28:00
EN: Maybe this is a Parabolic Wedge.
ZH: （新手担心）这是不是抛物线楔形？
28:00 - 28:02
EN: And so they end up not making any profit
ZH: 所以他们最终没有赚到任何钱
28:02 - 28:06
EN: because they did not buy the closes when it made sense to buy closes.
ZH: 因为他们没有在合理的时机买收盘
28:06 - 28:09
EN: When they finally get their pullback, they don’t buy
ZH: 终于等到了心心念念的回调，也还是不敢买
28:09 - 28:11
EN: because they think the market might be reversing.
ZH: 因为他们担心市场可能会反转
28:12 - 28:17
EN: It’s better just to trade small, buy the close, and use the appropriate stop.
ZH: 其实用小仓位买收盘就可以了，然后设置正确的止损
Slide 017
Time: 28:15
Bilingual Transcript
28:17 - 28:20
EN: It’s like when you’re a kid and you’re jumping off the high board.
ZH: 就像小孩子第一次从跳板上往游泳池里跳水一样
28:20 - 28:22
EN: You’re terrified.
ZH: 你感到害怕
28:22 - 28:25
EN: You – you pinch your nose, you tighten up every muscle in your body,
ZH: 你捏住鼻子，绷紧了每一块肌肉
28:25 - 28:28
EN: and you’re in a tight ball, and you just jump.
ZH: 身体缩成球形，然后闭着眼往下跳
28:28 - 28:31
EN: And then, after a second or two, you’re safe.
ZH: 一两秒之后落入水里，发现其实也没什么
28:31 - 28:34
EN: That’s true with these Buy The Close bull trends.
ZH: 买收盘的上涨趋势也是这样
28:34 - 28:39
EN: You buy the close, you pinch your nose, and you’re tense for a minute or so,
ZH: 在K线收盘买入追涨，捏住鼻子，紧张了一两分钟
28:39 - 28:41
EN: and then all of a sudden you’re safe.
ZH: 突然你感到其实也没什么
28:47 - 28:49
EN: The market is always in a cycle.
ZH: 市场总是在不同的周期中循环
28:49 - 28:54
EN: It’s in a strong breakout, it’s in a channel, or it’s in a Trading Range.
ZH: 强势突破阶段、通道阶段、震荡区间阶段
28:54 - 28:58
EN: As soon as you see the market in a breakout phase, that is a great time to enter
ZH: 一旦你看到市场处于突破阶段，那就是一个很好的入场时机
28:58 - 29:03
EN: because the math is very good for traders trading in the direction of the trend.
ZH: 因为对于顺趋势交易者而言，此时的数学期望非常好
29:04 - 29:05
EN: High probability.
ZH: 胜率很高
29:05 - 29:11
EN: Even though the risk is greater, the probability of making money
ZH: 尽管初始风险也很大，但只要正确地管理这笔交易， 赚钱的概率非常高
29:08 - 29:11
EN: is very high if you manage your trade correctly.
ZH: 尽管初始风险也很大，但只要正确地管理这笔交易， 赚钱的概率非常高
29:13 - 29:15
EN: Again, you buy for any reason.
ZH: 再次强调，你可以用任何方式买入
29:15 - 29:18
EN: You buy at the market, you buy below bars, you buy above bars,
ZH: 市价买入，在K线下方挂限价买单，在K线上方挂突破买单
29:18 - 29:20
EN: you buy bear closes – it doesn’t matter.
ZH: 在阴线的收盘买入——都可以
29:20 - 29:22
EN: And then just use the appropriate stop.
ZH: 然后只需要设置正确的止损
29:22 - 29:29
EN: Once you get a strong enough breakout, you tighten your stop
ZH: 一旦再次强势突破创新高，就可以把止损抬高到最近一次突破的起涨点
29:26 - 29:29
EN: to below the most recent bottom of a bull breakout.
ZH: 一旦再次强势突破创新高，就可以把止损抬高到最近一次突破的起涨点
29:35 - 29:38
EN: Beginners always want perfect trades.
ZH: 新手总是想要完美的交易机会
29:38 - 29:39
EN: They don’t want to risk any money
ZH: 他们不想冒任何风险
29:39 - 29:42
EN: unless they’re absolutely sure they’re going to make money.
ZH: 他们想要100%确定赚钱
29:42 - 29:44
EN: That cannot happen.
ZH: 那是不可能的
29:44 - 29:48
EN: You should assume that you’re never going to be more than 60% certain,
ZH: 你应该假设任何一笔交易的确定性不会超过60%
29:48 - 29:52
EN: and you cannot be paralyzed by the 40% chance that you’re going to lose money.
ZH: 而且不能因为有40%的概率会亏钱就被吓住
29:52 - 29:55
EN: 60% is as good as it gets.
ZH: 60%是最好的情况了
29:56 - 30:05
EN: Realistically, is the probability 60% that we’re going up for a Measured Move
ZH: 这里上涨到MM目标位的概率只有60%吗？ 实际上不止，可能有70%
30:01 - 30:05
EN: after you see this? Yeah, it’s actually probably 70%.
ZH: 这里上涨到MM目标位的概率只有60%吗？ 实际上不止，可能有70%
30:05 - 30:11
EN: But it’s clearly much better than 50%, and that’s as good as it gets.
ZH: 总之远大于50%，这已经是非常不错的了
30:11 - 30:18
EN: So you know what the risk is, and if your account size
ZH: 而且你知道风险是多少，如果你的账户规模足以承担这样的风险， 那就可以用任何方式买入
30:15 - 30:18
EN: is big enough to risk that, you’ve got to buy for any reason.
ZH: 而且你知道风险是多少，如果你的账户规模足以承担这样的风险， 那就可以用任何方式买入
30:24 - 30:28
EN: If you’re waiting for a pullback and it’s not coming and you’re thinking that
ZH: 如果你在等待回调，但一直不下跌，
30:28 - 30:31
EN: “oh, maybe I’m taking too long to enter,” just buy at the market.
ZH: 你觉得：“哎呀，我动作太慢了，怎么还没有买入”
30:31 - 30:32
EN: Buy at the market.
ZH: 那就直接市价入场
30:32 - 30:34
EN: It doesn’t matter if you’re buying higher than you want.
ZH: 无论买入价格是否比预期中的要高
30:34 - 30:36
EN: Just buy at the market.
ZH: 直接（小仓位）市价买入
30:36 - 30:37
EN: Use the appropriate stop.
ZH: 设置正确的止损
Slide 018
Time: 30:45
Bilingual Transcript
30:46 - 30:50
EN: Once you start getting pullbacks (a pullback is a bar going
ZH: 一旦看到回调（回调的定义是：跌破前一根K线的低点）
30:50 - 30:54
EN: below the low of the prior bar), look to buy on a resumption of the bull trend.
ZH: 那就寻找上涨趋势恢复时的买入机会
30:55 - 30:58
EN: Buying above the high of the prior bar, that’s a High 1 buy.
ZH: 在前一根K线高点上方买入，也就是高1买入点
30:58 - 31:07
EN: If the pullback bear trend resumes down and you get another bar going
ZH: 如果回调继续，然后又有一根K线的最高点被突破， 那就是高2买入点
31:04 - 31:07
EN: above the high of the prior bar, that is a High 2 buy.
ZH: 如果回调继续，然后又有一根K线的最高点被突破， 那就是高2买入点
31:07 - 31:14
EN: So a High 1 bull flag or a High 2 bull flag,
ZH: 所以高1牛旗或高2牛旗，都是强上涨趋势中好的入场时机
31:10 - 31:14
EN: very good ways to enter in a strong bull trend.
ZH: 所以高1牛旗或高2牛旗，都是强上涨趋势中好的入场时机
31:15 - 31:19
EN: Sometimes you get a High 3, so High 1, High 2, High 3.
ZH: 有时还会有高3——高1，高2，高3
31:19 - 31:21
EN: You can call it a Triangle.
ZH: 可以把它看做三角形
31:21 - 31:22
EN: It’s sloped down a little bit.
ZH: 因为它略微向下倾斜
31:22 - 31:24
EN: You can call it a Wedge bull flag.
ZH: 所以可以说它是楔形牛旗
31:24 - 31:24
EN: It doesn’t matter.
ZH: 名称并不重要
31:24 - 31:26
EN: It’s still a very good buy.
ZH: 重要的是它是一个好的买点
31:26 - 31:28
EN: The bears have not done enough to take control,
ZH: 空头没有足够的力量来掌控市场
31:28 - 31:31
EN: and therefore the probability is we’re going higher.
ZH: 因此继续上涨的概率很大
31:34 - 31:37
EN: Here’s a High 1 buy, High 2 buy.
ZH: 这里是高1买入点，高2买入点
31:40 - 31:41
EN: You don’t have to take both.
ZH: 不一定要在两个地方都买入
31:41 - 31:45
EN: You just choose one and then rely on your stop, either here or here.
ZH: 选择其中一个入场点，然后依靠你的止损——这里，或这里
31:50 - 31:54
EN: High 1, High 2, High 3 – doesn’t matter which one you take.
ZH: 高1，高2，高3——选择任何一个都可以
31:54 - 31:58
EN: Your stop is below the bottom
ZH: 止损都在最近一次强势突破的起涨点下方，也就是这里
31:55 - 31:58
EN: of the most recent strong bull breakout, down here.
ZH: 止损都在最近一次强势突破的起涨点下方，也就是这里
32:04 - 32:09
EN: Sometimes a trend is very strong, and you get a
ZH: 有时趋势非常强势，只形成了高1牛旗，就立刻上涨； （注：也就是回调非常短暂，没有复杂的回调结构）
32:07 - 32:10
EN: - a High 1 and it goes right up, and then a High 1, it goes straight up.
ZH: 有时趋势非常强势，只形成了高1牛旗，就立刻上涨； （注：也就是回调非常短暂，没有复杂的回调结构） 高1牛旗，立刻上涨
32:10 - 32:15
EN: As trends mature, as they go on, as they add more bars,
ZH: 随着时间的推移，随着K线增加，到了趋势的后期
32:15 - 32:17
EN: the pullbacks tend to be more complex.
ZH: 回调通常会变得更加复杂
32:17 - 32:21
EN: So instead of High 1’s, you start to get High 2’s or High 3’s.
ZH: 不再是只有高1，开始出现高2，甚至高3
Slide 019
Time: 32:25
Bilingual Transcript
32:29 - 32:30
EN: We’re trying to reverse.
ZH: 尝试反转下跌
32:30 - 32:32
EN: Do you think that’s a major reversal?
ZH: 你觉得它会不会是大反转？
32:32 - 32:36
EN: Do you think we’ll get a bear trend out of that? No, it’s a minor reversal,
ZH: 你觉得它会发展成下降趋势吗？不会，这只是小反转
32:36 - 32:40
EN: and therefore it’s more likely to create a bull flag or a small Trading Range,
ZH: 它更有可能变成牛旗，或者震荡区间
32:40 - 32:43
EN: and the bull trend is likely to resume.
ZH: 然后上涨趋势恢复
32:45 - 32:49
EN: Therefore, you bet that reversals will fail.
ZH: 因此交易者押注反转会失败
32:49 - 32:52
EN: Here, we’re trying to reverse, a failed breakout of this high.
ZH: 突破之前这个高点之后，价格反转下跌
32:52 - 32:53
EN: We’re trying to reverse a second time.
ZH: 这里是第2次反转下跌（注：第2段回调）
32:53 - 32:57
EN: Now we have a bear breakout, a close below the low of the past 3 bars.
ZH: 这根阴线向下跌破，它的收盘价低于过去3根K线的低点
32:57 - 33:00
EN: These are reversal attempts.
ZH: 这些都是反转的尝试，不会成功
32:58 - 33:00
EN: They’re going to fail.
ZH: 这些都是反转的尝试，不会成功
33:01 - 33:03
EN: Instead of selling, you buy.
ZH: 不应该卖出，而是要买入
33:03 - 33:05
EN: Here, we have a failed breakout.
ZH: 这里，又尝试反转
33:05 - 33:07
EN: We have a Wedge – one, two, three – Wedge Top.
ZH: 3推——1，2，3——楔形顶
33:08 - 33:10
EN: You look to buy reversals down.
ZH: 等待逢低买入的机会
33:10 - 33:13
EN: Here’s a second entry short – first entry below that bull bar,
ZH: 这里是第2做空入场点——第1次是在那根阳线的低点下方
33:13 - 33:17
EN: and now second entry here, a Micro Double Top – it’s probably going to fail.
ZH: 现在第2次在这里——小双顶——反转大概率会失败
33:17 - 33:20
EN: So you buy below the low of that bar.
ZH: 所以应该在那根K线的低点下方买入
33:21 - 33:25
EN: Here, we got a 2-bar reversal up and down, a failed High 2 buy
ZH: 这里有一个双K反转——上涨，下跌； 高2买入点失败了
33:25 - 33:29
EN: - High 1, High 2, maybe High 3 – and it’s failing.
ZH: ——高1，高2，还会有高3——还在下跌
33:29 - 33:36
EN: Well, guess what? The first strong bear bar
ZH: 会发生什么？第1根大阴线大概率无法反转趋势
33:33 - 33:36
EN: is probably going to fail to reverse the market.
ZH: 会发生什么？第1根大阴线大概率无法反转趋势
33:36 - 33:37
EN: Bulls will buy that close.
ZH: 多头会在它的收盘买入
33:37 - 33:45
EN: Again, we have a small Double Top, but a doji bar, and you’re going to buy
ZH: 还有这里，小双顶，十字星， 在它的低点挂单买入，或者在那根小阴线的收盘买入
33:43 - 33:45
EN: the low of that bar or you’re going to buy that small bear bar,
ZH: 还有这里，小双顶，十字星， 在它的低点挂单买入，或者在那根小阴线的收盘买入
33:45 - 33:49
EN: betting that it’s not going to be enough to reverse the market.
ZH: 押注这不足以让趋势反转下跌
33:49 - 33:51
EN: So you buy the close of bear bars.
ZH: 你可以买阴线的收盘
33:51 - 33:53
EN: You buy below bars.
ZH: 可以在K线下方挂限价买单
33:55 - 33:59
EN: You buy below the bar, betting that the attempt to reverse down will fail.
ZH: 在它的下方买入，押注反转下跌的尝试会失败
34:01 - 34:03
EN: You buy a breakout to a new low.
ZH: 可以在跌破新低时买入
34:03 - 34:08
EN: This bear bar closed below the low of the past 6 or 7 bars.
ZH: 这根阴线的收盘价低于过去6~7根K线的低点
34:08 - 34:10
EN: Is it going to be a successful reversal?
ZH: 会是一次成功的反转吗？
34:10 - 34:13
EN: No, the odds of it being successful are small,
ZH: 不会，成功的概率很小
34:13 - 34:16
EN: and therefore it’s going to fail, and the bull trend will resume.
ZH: 因此它会失败，上涨趋势会恢复
34:16 - 34:20
EN: These are all reasonable entries, and it doesn’t matter
ZH: 这些都是合理的入场点，
34:20 - 34:23
EN: which of these entries you take; your stop is here.
ZH: 不管你在其中哪里买入，止损都在这里
34:23 - 34:27
EN: It doesn’t matter which of these entries you take; the stop is here.
ZH: 不管你选择哪个入场点，止损都在这里
34:27 - 34:30
EN: You know where the stop is, and if you can risk enough,
ZH: 止损的距离很明确，如果你能够承担这些风险
34:30 - 34:32
EN: then you just take the trade.
ZH: 那就可以开仓交易
34:35 - 34:39
EN: Strong leg up, traders will buy a 50% pullback.
ZH: 强势的上涨波段，多头会在50%回调处买入
34:39 - 34:41
EN: We did not get there here.
ZH: 这里没有下跌那么多
34:41 - 34:46
EN: However, a lot of traders will place a limit order to buy a 50% pullback.
ZH: 但很多人会在50%回调的地方挂限价买单
34:50 - 34:53
EN: Some traders will simply buy 1 point below a low.
ZH: 一些交易者会在某个低点下方1个点的地方挂限价买单
34:54 - 34:59
EN: This low is 1 point below that low, so instead of buying at the low of that bar,
ZH: 它在这个低点下方1个点，一些多头不会直接在它的低点挂单
34:59 - 35:02
EN: they’ll place a limit order to buy 1 point below.
ZH: 而是把限价买单挂在1个点下方
35:02 - 35:06
EN: Or if the pullbacks are getting deeper, they’ll buy 2 points,
ZH: 或者，如果预期有更深的回调
35:06 - 35:08
EN: 3 points, or 4 points below.
ZH: 他们会在下方2、3、4个点挂单
35:08 - 35:12
EN: They’ll buy 1, 2, or 3 points below the low of the prior bar,
ZH: 他们会在前1根K线的低点下方1、2或3个点处买入
35:12 - 35:16
EN: or they’ll buy 1, 2, or 3 points below the low of the high close.
ZH: 或者在阳线收盘价的下方1、2或3个点处买入
35:16 - 35:17
EN: We have a Buy The Close market.
ZH: 这是买收盘的上涨趋势
35:17 - 35:21
EN: The bulls who bought that high close will look to buy more lower.
ZH: 在那个最高收盘价买入的多头，会逢低加仓买入更多
35:21 - 35:32
EN: They might place a limit order to buy 1 point down, 2 points down,
ZH: 他们会在下方1、2、3个点处挂限价买单， 押注任何反转的尝试都不会成功，价格会涨回到那个最高的收盘价
35:24 - 35:32
EN: 3 points down, betting that whatever reversal we get,
ZH: 他们会在下方1、2、3个点处挂限价买单， 押注任何反转的尝试都不会成功，价格会涨回到那个最高的收盘价
35:28 - 35:32
EN: will not be enough to reverse the trend and that we’ll get back to that close.
ZH: 他们会在下方1、2、3个点处挂限价买单， 押注任何反转的尝试都不会成功，价格会涨回到那个最高的收盘价
Slide 020
Time: 35:35
Bilingual Transcript
35:39 - 35:41
EN: Again, it doesn’t matter how you buy.
ZH: 再次强调，用什么方式买入都可以
35:41 - 35:43
EN: It doesn’t matter what your reason is.
ZH: 用什么理由买入都可以
35:43 - 35:48
EN: When the trend is very strong like this, the math is actually okay to scalp,
ZH: 当趋势这么强的时候，其实很适合做剥头皮交易
35:48 - 35:51
EN: but the math is really good for swing traders.
ZH: 但更适合做波段交易
35:51 - 35:54
EN: Therefore, you should try to swing at least part of your position,
ZH: 所以至少应该坚定持有一部分仓位
35:54 - 35:56
EN: always using the correct stop.
ZH: 一定要设置正确的止损
35:58 - 36:04
EN: Buy any of these reasons, stop either here or down here,
ZH: 在其中任何地方买入，止损要么在这里，要么在这里
36:05 - 36:09
EN: and you just hold until either there’s a reasonable sell signal
ZH: 然后就一直持有，直到出现合理的卖出信号
36:10 - 36:12
EN: or until the end of the day.
ZH: 或者一直持有到收盘前
Slide 021
Time: 36:20
Bilingual Transcript
36:21 - 36:24
EN: Beginners always want perfect trades.
ZH: 新手总是想要完美的交易机会
36:24 - 36:30
EN: A perfect trade is a trade where you have a high probability
ZH: 完美的机会就是指胜率很高，而且盈亏比又很好
36:28 - 36:30
EN: and you’re going for a great risk/reward
ZH: 完美的机会就是指胜率很高，而且盈亏比又很好
36:30 - 36:34
EN: - in other words, very little risk and very big reward.
ZH: ——换句话说，风险很小、利润很大
36:35 - 36:39
EN: Now, that can never exist because if it’s perfectly good for you,
ZH: 这样的机会不存在，因为对于你而言完美的机会，
36:39 - 36:43
EN: it’s perfectly bad for the institution taking the opposite side.
ZH: 对于作为对手盘的机构而言就非常糟糕
36:43 - 36:47
EN: If you have a high probability of a very big profit with very little risk,
ZH: 你的胜率很高、风险很小，利润又很大
36:47 - 36:50
EN: no one’s going to take the other side of the trade.
ZH: 那么没有人会愿意做你的对手盘
36:50 - 36:54
EN: It will not take long for the institutions to recognize the setup,
ZH: 很快机构都会发现这样的机会
36:54 - 36:57
EN: and then everyone will want to do exactly what you’re doing
ZH: 每个人的交易方向都和你一样
36:57 - 37:00
EN: and there won’t be anybody left to take the other side of the trade.
ZH: 那么就没有人愿意站在对面 （注：于是无法成交，或者价格瞬间出现巨大的波动）
37:00 - 37:05
EN: And therefore, a trade that gets anywhere near perfection cannot exist
ZH: 因此不存在完美的交易机会
37:05 - 37:08
EN: because everyone would start to trade it, and all of a sudden there
ZH: 因为所有人都在做相同的方向
37:08 - 37:11
EN: will not be enough people to take the other side.
ZH: 没有足够的对手盘参与交易
37:16 - 37:18
EN: If it’s perfectly good for you,
ZH: 对你而言完美的机会
37:18 - 37:21
EN: it’s perfectly bad for an institution doing the opposite.
ZH: 对于做对手盘的机构而言就非常糟糕
37:21 - 37:25
EN: In other words, they would have only a very small probability
ZH: 因为他们的概率很低
37:25 - 37:30
EN: of making only a very small profit, yet their risk would be very big.
ZH: 利润也很小，但是却要承担巨大的风险
37:30 - 37:32
EN: Nobody would take that trade.
ZH: 没有人傻到去做这样的交易
37:36 - 37:40
EN: There are three variables in the Trader’s Equation: risk, reward,
ZH: 数学期望中有3个变量：风险、利润、和概率
37:40 - 37:44
EN: and probability, and you can combine risk/reward into a single variable.
ZH: 风险和利润可以合并成盈亏比
37:45 - 37:49
EN: Every trade is a tradeoff between probability and risk/reward.
ZH: 每一笔交易都是概率和盈亏比之间的权衡
37:49 - 37:53
EN: A lot of trades have decent probability and decent risk/reward.
ZH: 一些交易的胜率和盈亏比都还可以
37:53 - 37:58
EN: Some trades have high probability; those trades always have bad risk/reward.
ZH: 有些交易的胜率很高，但盈亏比不那么好
37:58 - 38:04
EN: Other trades have great risk/reward,
ZH: 有些交易的盈亏比非常好，但胜率却很低
38:01 - 38:04
EN: and therefore they always have low probability.
ZH: 有些交易的盈亏比非常好，但胜率却很低
38:06 - 38:10
EN: If you have high probability of winning, the other side has better risk/reward.
ZH: 如果你拥有很高的胜率，那么对方就拥有更好的盈亏比
38:10 - 38:15
EN: If you have great risk/reward, then your probability of success is small.
ZH: 如果你的盈亏比很好，那么成功的概率就不高
38:19 - 38:22
EN: Let’s say you buy the reversal up from yesterday’s low.
ZH: 假设你在反转上涨时买入
Slide 022
Time: 38:20
Bilingual Transcript
38:22 - 38:24
EN: It’s a second entry buy.
ZH: 这里是第2做多入场点
38:24 - 38:26
EN: The first was above here, the second is here.
ZH: 第1入场点在它的上方，第2在这里
38:26 - 38:27
EN: Your stop is small.
ZH: 止损很小
38:28 - 38:31
EN: At that point you do not see all of these bars.
ZH: 此时你不知道后面的这些K线
38:31 - 38:36
EN: You have a very small risk, you have potentially a very big reward,
ZH: 你的风险很小，而潜在的利润非常大
38:36 - 38:38
EN: so you have fantastic risk/reward.
ZH: 所以盈亏比是极好的
38:39 - 38:49
EN: What does that tell you about the probability at that point
ZH: 这说明了什么？说明此时你赚到钱的概率并不高， 止损很有可能会被打掉
38:42 - 38:49
EN: of making a lot of money? It tells you that you’re probably
ZH: 这说明了什么？说明此时你赚到钱的概率并不高， 止损很有可能会被打掉
38:45 - 38:49
EN: not going to make money, that your stop will probably get hit.
ZH: 这说明了什么？说明此时你赚到钱的概率并不高， 止损很有可能会被打掉
38:49 - 38:53
EN: But sometimes it’ll work, and those few times
ZH: 但偶尔也能够成功几次
38:53 - 38:58
EN: when you get a huge trend like this, it more than offsets all the losses.
ZH: 在那些偶尔成功的时候，你能够赚到巨大的趋势， 轻而易举地弥补了所有的小亏损
38:58 - 39:02
EN: Even if you lost 70% or 80% of the time taking this buy,
ZH: 及时70%，甚至80%的时候都失败，
39:02 - 39:09
EN: the 20% of the time that you win has so much profit
ZH: 但20%的时候你赚到了巨大的利润， 远远超出了所有的小亏损
39:06 - 39:09
EN: that it more than offsets all of the losses.
ZH: 但20%的时候你赚到了巨大的利润， 远远超出了所有的小亏损
39:13 - 39:16
EN: Is this only a 20% chance of winning?
ZH: 这里只有20%的胜率吗？
39:16 - 39:19
EN: No, it’s actually probably about a 40% chance.
ZH: 不止，实际上有40%的概率
39:19 - 39:23
EN: You have a failed breakout below yesterday’s low, trying to reverse up here,
ZH: 跌破昨天的低点之后没有跟随，尝试反转上涨
39:23 - 39:27
EN: and now you have a second entry for the failed breakout above yesterday’s low.
ZH: 现在是第2次反转上涨的买入点
39:27 - 39:28
EN: You have dojis.
ZH: 信号K线是十字星（而不是收在高位的阳线）
39:28 - 39:32
EN: That tends to lower the probability, but the risk is small.
ZH: 降低了反转的概率，但风险非常小
39:32 - 39:33
EN: The reward is good.
ZH: 前在利润很大
39:34 - 39:37
EN: You have about a 40% chance of a swing up.
ZH: 有大约40%的概率会有上涨波段
39:37 - 39:41
EN: By a swing up, the minimum goal is at least twice your Actual Risk.
ZH: 上涨波段的意思是，利润至少是实际风险的两倍
39:42 - 39:49
EN: That means your minimum goal for this to be a profitable strategy
ZH: 也就是涨到这里，那是让这个策略实现盈利的最低目标
39:46 - 39:49
EN: is a move to right around here.
ZH: 也就是涨到这里，那是让这个策略实现盈利的最低目标
39:49 - 39:53
EN: However, exiting at the minimum goal is rarely the best option,
ZH: 然而，在最低目标止盈往往不是最好的选择
39:53 - 39:56
EN: and if you see the market start to turn up reasonably strongly,
ZH: 如果你看到上涨足够强势，
39:56 - 40:01
EN: it’s better not to exit and hold at least part of your position
ZH: 最好先不要离场，继续持有至少一部分仓位
40:01 - 40:05
EN: because you might be buying early on in a very strong bull trend.
ZH: 因为你可能买在一个非常强的上涨趋势的初期
40:10 - 40:13
EN: This bull had a 40% chance of a swing up.
ZH: 在这里买入的时候，有40%的概率能够赚到上涨波段
40:13 - 40:20
EN: What about this bull? They have the same stop, whether you bought here
ZH: 在这里买入呢？止损的位置是一样的，无论在这里买入， 还是在这里买入，止损都在这里
40:17 - 40:20
EN: with a stop here or you buy here with a stop here.
ZH: 在这里买入呢？止损的位置是一样的，无论在这里买入， 还是在这里买入，止损都在这里
40:20 - 40:23
EN: This bull, the risk is far greater.
ZH: 在这里买入的话，风险要大得多
40:23 - 40:25
EN: His risk/reward ratio is much worse.
ZH: 盈亏比远远不如前者
40:25 - 40:30
EN: This bull had a great risk/reward ratio, but low probability.
ZH: 在这里买入有很好的盈亏比，但胜率低
40:30 - 40:36
EN: This bull has a terrible risk/reward ratio, but outstanding probability.
ZH: 在这里买入的盈亏比不太好，但胜率很高
40:36 - 40:38
EN: Both are reasonable trades.
ZH: 两个都是合理的交易
40:38 - 40:42
EN: The trader who buys here is the trader who prefers high probability trades;
ZH: 在这里买入的交易者偏好更高的胜率
40:42 - 40:47
EN: the trader who buys here is one who has risk/reward as his priority.
ZH: 在这里买入的交易者优先考虑盈亏比
40:59 - 41:03
EN: Again, you should never worry about perfection because it cannot exist.
ZH: 再次强调，永远不要纠结是否完美，因为不存在完美的机会
41:03 - 41:07
EN: As long as you can structure a trade that has a positive Trader’s Equation,
ZH: 只要你能够构建数学期望为正的交易
41:07 - 41:11
EN: the trade is good, and you should consider taking it.
ZH: 那么就是好的机会，应该考虑开仓
Slide 023
Time: 41:15
Bilingual Transcript
41:19 - 41:22
EN: By the close of this bar, the market’s in a Buy The Close bull trend,
ZH: 在这根K线收盘之后，市场进入了买收盘的上涨趋势
41:22 - 41:25
EN: and that’s the same with the close of this bar as well.
ZH: 这根K线的收盘也是一样
41:26 - 41:29
EN: Every bar is opening at the close of the prior bar.
ZH: 每根K线的开盘价都不低于前一根K线的收盘价
41:30 - 41:38
EN: Sometimes in a Buy The Close bull trend, you’ll get a bar opening
ZH: 在一些买收盘的上涨趋势中，你会看到跳空高开， 那是多头迫切买入的信号
41:34 - 41:38
EN: above the close of the prior bar, which is a sign of eager bulls.
ZH: 在一些买收盘的上涨趋势中，你会看到跳空高开， 那是多头迫切买入的信号
41:38 - 41:42
EN: As soon as a bar is closing, a lot of traders are hitting “Buy the Market,”
ZH: 在K线收盘的瞬间，很多交易者都点击“市价买入”
41:42 - 41:47
EN: and therefore the next bar opens at or above the close of that bar,
ZH: 所以下一根K线在它收盘价的上方开盘
41:47 - 41:49
EN: and that’s a sign of aggressive, strong bulls.
ZH: 这是多头激进、强壮的信号
41:54 - 42:01
EN: Sometimes in a Buy The Close bull trend, you’ll get a bar that opens
ZH: 有时在买收盘的上涨趋势中，你会看到一根K线跳空高开， 但最终收盘却变成了大阴线
41:58 - 42:01
EN: above the close of the prior bar and becomes a big bear bar,
ZH: 有时在买收盘的上涨趋势中，你会看到一根K线跳空高开， 但最终收盘却变成了大阴线
42:01 - 42:04
EN: and that tells you that there are trapped bulls.
ZH: 这说明有多头被套牢了
42:04 - 42:09
EN: So many bulls bought the close, the next bar gapped up and then it sold off,
ZH: 很多人在收盘时买入，造成下一根K线跳空高开，但是却下跌了
42:09 - 42:14
EN: and that means that the bulls were overwhelmed by very aggressive bears.
ZH: 这意味着多头被非常激进的卖盘压倒了
42:14 - 42:15
EN: That’s not the case here.
ZH: 这里不是这种情况
42:15 - 42:19
EN: We have a Buy The Close bull trend and then a bear bar.
ZH: 买收盘的上涨趋势，然后出现了一根阴线
42:19 - 42:22
EN: Its open is exactly at that close.
ZH: 它的开盘价正好等于前一根K线的收盘价
42:22 - 42:26
EN: That tells you that a lot of bulls, instead of buying this close,
ZH: 这说明有一些多头，他们没有在这里继续买入
42:26 - 42:31
EN: they sold this close, looking to take profits possibly
ZH: 而是卖出平仓，也许是利用抢购高潮止盈
42:29 - 42:31
EN: after a big Buy Climax bar.
ZH: 而是卖出平仓，也许是利用抢购高潮止盈
42:33 - 42:34
EN: A similar situation here.
ZH: 这里是类似的情况
42:34 - 42:39
EN: The open of this bear bar is exactly at the close of that bull bar.
ZH: 这根阴线的开盘价，正好等于那根阳线的收盘价
42:39 - 42:44
EN: This bull bar is the third bar in a series where the bodies are getting smaller.
ZH: 它是连续3根阳线中的最后一个，体积越来越小
42:44 - 42:51
EN: The market’s losing momentum, and as soon as this bar opened,
ZH: 动能正在衰退，所以在这根K线开盘的时候有人卖出止盈
42:48 - 42:51
EN: some traders sold to take profits.
ZH: 动能正在衰退，所以在这根K线开盘的时候有人卖出止盈
42:56 - 42:59
EN: We have a bear bar and a pause and a second bear bar.
ZH: 有一根阴线，暂停，然后是第2根阴线
42:59 - 43:01
EN: Two legs down after a strong rally.
ZH: 强势上涨之后，两段回调
43:01 - 43:05
EN: Probably the market’s going to resume, and look at the open
ZH: 趋势大概率会恢复； 观察这根K线的开盘价
43:05 - 43:07
EN: of this bar compared to the close of that bar.
ZH: 和那根K线的收盘价
43:07 - 43:09
EN: There’s a gap up.
ZH: 有跳空高开
43:09 - 43:14
EN: That tells you that as soon as traders saw this bar close with a bull body,
ZH: 这说明当交易者看到这根K线收盘是阳线，
43:14 - 43:18
EN: especially closing near its high, they hit the button to buy the market.
ZH: 而且收在高位时，他们点击“市价买入”
43:18 - 43:24
EN: And there were so many traders eager to buy that the open of this bar
ZH: 多头非常迫切地买入，导致下一根K线跳空高开
43:22 - 43:24
EN: is above the close of this bar.
ZH: 多头非常迫切地买入，导致下一根K线跳空高开
43:24 - 43:30
EN: That’s a sign of aggressive, eager bulls, and it means the market’s
ZH: 这是多头激进、迫切的信号， 说明市场很可能会继续上涨一些
43:28 - 43:30
EN: probably going at least a little bit higher.
ZH: 这是多头激进、迫切的信号， 说明市场很可能会继续上涨一些
43:35 - 43:39
EN: We have a pretty good size bear bar, but look at the next bar.
ZH: 这里有一根大阴线，但是看下一根K线
43:40 - 43:43
EN: Its open is above the close of this bear bar.
ZH: 它的开盘价在这根阴线的收盘价上方
43:43 - 43:49
EN: The bears are hoping that we have a Wedge Top
ZH: 空头希望这是楔形顶——1，2，3——高点降低
43:46 - 43:49
EN: - one, two, three – and then a Lower High.
ZH: 空头希望这是楔形顶——1，2，3——高点降低
43:50 - 43:56
EN: Decent size bear bar closing at or below the low of the past 6 or 7 bars.
ZH: 大阴线，收盘价低于过去6~7根K线的最低点
43:57 - 44:03
EN: Instead of a second follow-through bear bar,
ZH: 但后续没有能够增加反转概率的跟随阴线， 更多人在它的收盘买入
43:59 - 44:03
EN: possibly reversing this rally, traders bought the close.
ZH: 但后续没有能够增加反转概率的跟随阴线， 更多人在它的收盘买入
44:03 - 44:08
EN: As soon as they saw this bear bar, they decided that it was not strong enough.
ZH: 当他们看到这根大阴线的时候，认为它不足以反转趋势
44:08 - 44:15
EN: It was probably just a second leg down in a bull trend
ZH: 这更有可能只是上涨趋势中的第2段回调——1，反弹，2； 然后市场继续上涨
44:11 - 44:15
EN: - one, pullback, two – and the market’s going higher.
ZH: 这更有可能只是上涨趋势中的第2段回调——1，反弹，2； 然后市场继续上涨
44:15 - 44:19
EN: A big bear bar and then not only a bull bar,
ZH: 大阴线后面的，不仅仅只是一根阳线
44:19 - 44:23
EN: but a bull bar that gapped open above the close of this bar.
ZH: 而是一根跳空高开的阳线
44:24 - 44:28
EN: That means so many traders saw this bar as a buying opportunity,
ZH: 这意味着很多交易者把大阴线看作是买入的机会
44:28 - 44:32
EN: as soon as this bear bar closed, a lot of traders hit “Buy the Market,”
ZH: 在它收盘的瞬间，很多人点击“市价买入”
44:32 - 44:35
EN: betting that it was not going to lead to a reversal.
ZH: 押注它无法形成反转
44:35 - 44:39
EN: It was simply going to trap weak bears into selling
ZH: 它只能诱使弱空头去做空，
44:39 - 44:42
EN: what they thought was a reversal, but in fact became a bull flag.
ZH: 弱空头以为这是反转，但实际上只是牛旗
44:43 - 44:44
EN: That’s a sign of strength.
ZH: 这是多头强壮的信号
44:44 - 44:48
EN: A bear bar and the next bar has an open above that close.
ZH: 大阴线，但下一根K线跳空高开
44:48 - 44:52
EN: That means a lot of bulls bought that bear bar betting
ZH: 这说明很多多头在它的收盘买入
44:52 - 44:55
EN: that it was going to trap bears who wanted a reversal down.
ZH: 押注做空的空头会被套牢
Slide 024
Time: 45:00
Bilingual Transcript
45:00 - 45:04
EN: Finally, I want to talk about Sell The Close bear trends
ZH: 最后，我想讲一下卖收盘的下降趋势
45:04 - 45:10
EN: - bear breakouts that are so strong, traders expect the market
ZH: ——空头突破非常强势，交易者预期市场继续下跌， 让他们可以很快赚钱
45:07 - 45:10
EN: to continue to fall, and they can make a quick profit
ZH: ——空头突破非常强势，交易者预期市场继续下跌， 让他们可以很快赚钱
45:10 - 45:14
EN: by simply selling at the market, especially on the close of a bear bar.
ZH: 所以空头市价卖出，或者在阴线的收盘卖出
Slide 025
Time: 45:15
Bilingual Transcript
45:22 - 45:26
EN: The market’s in a bear trend, pulling back to the Moving Average.
ZH: 市场处于下降趋势，反弹回到均线
45:26 - 45:28
EN: The bulls tried to get a reversal up from a Triangle.
ZH: 多头尝试在三角形之后反转上涨
45:28 - 45:31
EN: They tried to get a reversal here and here,
ZH: 他们在这里和这里尝试反转
45:31 - 45:33
EN: but we got a bull breakout of a Triangle.
ZH: 尝试向上突破三角形
45:33 - 45:38
EN: 50% of Triangle breakouts, up or down, fail, and we got a reversal.
ZH: 三角形突破，无论向上还是向下，50%的概率会失败； 然后反转下跌
45:38 - 45:44
EN: And not only did we get a reversal, but we have a big bear bar
ZH: 不仅仅是下跌，还是一根大阴线收在最低，远低于前1根K线的低点
45:41 - 45:44
EN: closing on its low, far below the low of the prior bar.
ZH: 不仅仅是下跌，还是一根大阴线收在最低，远低于前1根K线的低点
45:45 - 45:47
EN: This is probably a Give-up Bar.
ZH: 这很可能是多头的放弃K线
45:47 - 45:51
EN: The bulls are giving up and we’re probably resuming the bear trend.
ZH: 多头正在放弃，下降趋势大概率会恢复
45:51 - 45:54
EN: So bear trend, Trading Range, trend resumption down.
ZH: 所以是下降趋势，震荡区间，恢复下降趋势
45:54 - 45:57
EN: The context is good here for a selloff.
ZH: 背景有利于做空
46:02 - 46:06
EN: This is the follow-through bar after the Give-up Bar,
ZH: 这是放弃K线后的跟随K线，也收在最低
46:05 - 46:06
EN: and it’s closing on its low.
ZH: 这是放弃K线后的跟随K线，也收在最低
46:06 - 46:10
EN: Also, look at the open of the bar compared to the close of that bar.
ZH: 另外，观察它的开盘价和前一根K线的收盘价
46:10 - 46:13
EN: So many traders hit the button to sell the market as soon
ZH: 很多人在那根阴线收盘的瞬间点击“市价卖出”
46:13 - 46:17
EN: as this bear bar closed that the next bar opened below that low.
ZH: 导致下一根K线跳空低开
46:18 - 46:21
EN: Sign of strong bears, probably going lower.
ZH: 这是空头强壮的信号，大概率会继续下跌
46:21 - 46:25
EN: By the close of this bar, traders are looking for bear closes,
ZH: 在它收盘的时候，交易者看到阴线收在最低
46:25 - 46:27
EN: and they’ll sell bear closes.
ZH: 他们会在收盘时卖出
46:27 - 46:31
EN: Usually after about 5 or 6 of them, traders look to sell a pullback.
ZH: 通常在5~6根阴线之后，交易者会等待反弹做空的机会
46:31 - 46:37
EN: However, you can continue to sell closes
ZH: 但你也可以继续卖收盘，设置正确的止损， 坚定持有，押注下跌波段
46:33 - 46:37
EN: and use the appropriate stop and hold on for a swing down.
ZH: 但你也可以继续卖收盘，设置正确的止损， 坚定持有，押注下跌波段
46:45 - 46:48
EN: Once you decide that the market is Sell The Close,
ZH: 一旦你认为市场处于卖收盘的下降趋势
46:48 - 46:54
EN: the best thing to do is just hit “Sell the Market,”
ZH: 最好的做法就是在阴线收盘时点击“市价卖出”—— 可以看到有很多人这么做了
46:51 - 46:54
EN: either as soon as the bar closes – and you can see a lot of traders did.
ZH: 最好的做法就是在阴线收盘时点击“市价卖出”—— 可以看到有很多人这么做了
46:54 - 46:58
EN: The open of the next bar is at or below the low of this bar.
ZH: 下一根K线的开盘价小于等于前一根K线的收盘价
46:59 - 47:01
EN: The open of this bar is below that close.
ZH: 这根K线跳空低开
47:01 - 47:04
EN: The open of this bar is below that close.
ZH: 这根K线跳空低开
47:04 - 47:06
EN: Traders are selling as soon as the bar closes.
ZH: 说明交易者在K线收盘的时候卖出
47:06 - 47:11
EN: That tells you that a lot of traders,
ZH: 空头等待阴线的收盘，然后点击“市价卖出”
47:09 - 47:11
EN: they wait for the close and then they hit “Sell the Market.”
ZH: 空头等待阴线的收盘，然后点击“市价卖出”
47:12 - 47:19
EN: Some traders, right before the bar closes, like a second or two
ZH: 一些交易者在K线收盘前一两秒点击“市价卖出”
47:15 - 47:19
EN: before the bar closes, hit “Sell the Market.” Other traders,
ZH: 一些交易者在K线收盘前一两秒点击“市价卖出”
47:19 - 47:24
EN: as soon as the bar closes, they place a limit order to sell at the close.
ZH: 一些交易者在K线收盘之后，立刻在收盘价挂限价卖单
47:24 - 47:29
EN: And you can see the market went a little bit above the close
ZH: 可以看到价格反弹了一点点，遇到了很多卖盘，然后直线下跌
47:26 - 47:29
EN: and found a lot of sellers, and the market went straight down.
ZH: 可以看到价格反弹了一点点，遇到了很多卖盘，然后直线下跌
47:29 - 47:32
EN: The only problem with doing that is sometimes
ZH: 这样做（指在收盘价挂限价卖单）的唯一问题是
47:32 - 47:37
EN: if the bear trend is especially strong, the bar, as soon as it opens,
ZH: 有时候下降趋势特别强势，下一根K线一开盘就下跌，
47:37 - 47:41
EN: does not go above the open and does not go above the close of the prior bar.
ZH: 价格从未高于开盘价，也从未高于前一根K线的收盘价 （注：此时限价卖单大概率无法成交）
47:41 - 47:46
EN: Therefore, you risk missing getting short in some of the strongest trends.
ZH: 就导致错过了这个很强的趋势
47:46 - 47:48
EN: You do not get filled with a limit order.
ZH: 限价单有无法成交的风险
47:48 - 47:50
EN: So it’s usually better just to sell the close,
ZH: 所以通常直接市价卖出会更好
47:50 - 47:52
EN: and that’s what most traders are doing.
ZH: 这也是大部分交易者的做法
Slide 026
Time: 47:55
Bilingual Transcript
48:01 - 48:06
EN: Now, why would bears sell here? Well, they see the bulls giving up.
ZH: 为什么空头会在这里卖出？因为他们看到多头放弃了
48:06 - 48:07
EN: They have follow-through.
ZH: 空头得到了跟随的阴线
48:07 - 48:09
EN: That increases the chances of lower prices.
ZH: 这增加了价格下跌的可能性
48:09 - 48:14
EN: They know one of two things is likely: either the market goes down quickly,
ZH: 他们知道大概率是两种情况：要么继续快速下跌，让他们直接赚钱
48:14 - 48:19
EN: and they make money, or the market pulls back and then goes down.
ZH: 或者市场先反弹，然后恢复下跌
48:19 - 48:23
EN: In other words, either the market is still in the breakout phase
ZH: 换句话说，市场要么仍然处于突破阶段
48:23 - 48:28
EN: or it’s a pullback into either a bear flag or possibly a Trading Range.
ZH: 要么反弹形成熊旗或震荡区间
48:28 - 48:31
EN: And if it’s a Trading Range, they can sell more higher,
ZH: 如果是震荡区间，他们可以逢高卖出更多
48:31 - 48:35
EN: expecting it to come down to the bottom of the range,
ZH: 当价格跌回到区间底部，也就是他们最初做空的价格时
48:33 - 48:35
EN: where they sold originally.
ZH: 当价格跌回到区间底部，也就是他们最初做空的价格时
48:35 - 48:37
EN: They can get out breakeven on their first sell
ZH: 初始仓位可以打平离场
48:37 - 48:39
EN: and then with a profit on their higher sell.
ZH: 加仓的部分可以赚钱
48:43 - 48:46
EN: Most traders look at it as a swing.
ZH: 这里大部分空头想要的是波段交易
48:46 - 48:50
EN: They sell, use the appropriate stop, and hold through a pullback like this.
ZH: 卖出做空，设置正确的止损，在反弹时坚定持有
48:50 - 48:54
EN: If they get out, let’s say after they see this big bull reversal,
ZH: 如果空头在反弹时——比如在这根大阳线之后——离场了
48:54 - 48:57
EN: they’ll look to sell again below that bear bar
ZH: 他们会再次卖出，比如在那根阴线下方
48:57 - 49:01
EN: because this rally was not enough to make the market Always In Long.
ZH: 因为这里的反弹不足以让市场进入单边上涨
49:01 - 49:05
EN: There was a 50% pullback below the breakout below the low of the day
ZH: 这是跌破前期低点之后的50%反弹
49:05 - 49:09
EN: and a test of the Moving Average, and the reversal is not particularly strong.
ZH: 也是对均线的回测，并不是特别强势的反转
49:09 - 49:11
EN: It’s basically a small Spike and Channel pattern
ZH: 它基本上是一个小的极速变通道的模式
49:11 - 49:15
EN: - one, pullback, two, pullback, three.
ZH: ——1，回调；2，回调；3
49:15 - 49:18
EN: So a small Wedge, pullback to the Moving Average,
ZH: 所以是一个小楔形，反弹到均线
49:18 - 49:21
EN: and a 50% retracement of the initial bear leg.
ZH: 也是下跌波段的50%反弹
49:21 - 49:23
EN: It’s a bear flag.
ZH: 所以它是熊旗
49:30 - 49:33
EN: This is a good trade, selling closes.
ZH: 这是一个不错的入场机会，卖收盘
49:33 - 49:38
EN: 60% chance you’re going to make money either immediately or after a pullback.
ZH: 60%的概率你能够立刻赚钱，或者在反弹之后赚钱
49:38 - 49:40
EN: It might even be higher, given this context,
ZH: 在这个背景下，胜率实际上更高
49:40 - 49:45
EN: but 60% is as good as you can hope to find as a trader.
ZH: 但60%的胜率对于交易者来说已经足够好了
49:45 - 49:47
EN: And if you’re a trader, you’ve got to trade.
ZH: 作为交易者，交易是你的工作
49:47 - 49:48
EN: You’ve got to take the trade.
ZH: 你必须要入场交易
49:49 - 49:50
EN: Sell at the market.
ZH: 直接市价卖出
Slide 027
Time: 49:55
Bilingual Transcript
49:58 - 50:05
EN: It’s a Sell The Close bear trend
ZH: 只要看到连续的阴线，那就是卖收盘的下降趋势
50:00 - 50:05
EN: as long as you keep getting immediate consecutive bear bars.
ZH: 只要看到连续的阴线，那就是卖收盘的下降趋势
50:05 - 50:09
EN: Sometimes you can have a small pause bar or even a small bull bar
ZH: 有时候你会看到一些小的暂停K线，甚至是一根小阳线，
50:09 - 50:15
EN: and then a resumption of the bear trend, so 1 small bull bar,
ZH: 然后下降趋势恢复——那仍然是卖收盘的下降趋势
50:12 - 50:15
EN: it could still be a Sell The Close bear trend.
ZH: 然后下降趋势恢复——那仍然是卖收盘的下降趋势
50:15 - 50:19
EN: Once you get a pretty good bull bar and a reversal above the top
ZH: 一旦出现了一根大阳线，而且大阳线的高点被突破 （注：即大阳线上方的突破买单被触发）
50:19 - 50:24
EN: of that bull bar, or if you go 4 or 5 ticks above the high of any bar,
ZH: 或者价格超过任何K线（即使是阴线）的高点4~5 ticks
50:24 - 50:29
EN: even a bear bar, the Sell The Close phase of the bear trend has probably ended
ZH: 那么卖收盘的下降趋势很可能已经结束
50:29 - 50:34
EN: and the market probably has evolved into a channel phase in the bear trend.
ZH: 市场进入了下降趋势中的通道阶段
50:40 - 50:43
EN: Some experts will sell every close.
ZH: 一些高手会在每一根的K线收盘卖出
50:43 - 50:46
EN: They’ll sell, sell more, sell more, sell more, sell more,
ZH: 卖出，卖出、卖出、卖出、卖出
50:46 - 50:51
EN: increasing their position, and then get out 3 or 4 or 5 ticks
ZH: 不断加仓，然后在任何K线上方3~5 ticks的地方离场
50:51 - 50:54
EN: above any bar or 1 tick above a bear bar.
ZH: 或者在阳线上方1个tick离场
50:54 - 50:56
EN: If a trader did take all of these sells,
ZH: 如果一个交易者真的在每根K线的收盘都卖出
50:56 - 50:57
EN: he’s going to be pretty quick to get out.
ZH: 那么他会很快离场（注：以防反弹的巨大风险）
50:57 - 51:02
EN: He might even get out as soon as he sees a close
ZH: 他甚至会因为K线收在当中（没有收在最低）而离场，比如这根阴线
51:00 - 51:02
EN: in the middle of the bar, like this bear bar.
ZH: 他甚至会因为K线收在当中（没有收在最低）而离场，比如这根阴线
51:02 - 51:07
EN: Most traders are not going to be scaling in to multiple shorts.
ZH: 大多数交易者不会加仓这么多次
51:07 - 51:12
EN: Aggressive traders will, but most traders will pick one short – any of these –
ZH: 激进的交易者会，但大多数交易者选择其中一个就可以了——任选其一
51:12 - 51:15
EN: use the appropriate stop, and then just hold for a swing.
ZH: 设置好正确的止损，然后持有做波段交易
51:18 - 51:24
EN: Where’s the stop? Doesn’t matter where you sold,
ZH: 止损在哪里？无论你在哪里入场做空，止损的位置都是一样的
51:21 - 51:24
EN: anywhere in here; the stop is the same.
ZH: 止损在哪里？无论你在哪里入场做空，止损的位置都是一样的
51:24 - 51:28
EN: It’s above the top of the most recent major Lower High.
ZH: 就放在最近一个重要的高点上方
51:28 - 51:30
EN: The top of this strong breakout to a new low.
ZH: 放在强势突破的起跌点上方
51:37 - 51:40
EN: If you have a Sell The Close trend in the final hour,
ZH: 如果卖收盘的下降趋势发生在尾盘的最后一小时
51:40 - 51:42
EN: traders are going to be very quick to get out.
ZH: 交易者会快速止盈离场
51:42 - 51:45
EN: They’ll either get out 1 tick above a bull bar
ZH: 他们要么在阳线上方1个tick离场
51:45 - 51:49
EN: - it did not trade above a bull bar – or 4 or 5 ticks above a bear bar.
ZH: ——这根阳线的高点没有被突破—— 或者在阴线上方4~5个ticks离场
51:49 - 51:51
EN: Maybe they’ll get out above here,
ZH: 也有人会在它的上方离场
51:52 - 51:54
EN: or they’ll get out right at the close of the day.
ZH: 或者在收盘前离场
51:55 - 51:58
EN: (I talk about this more in the video on Trading at the End of the Day.)
ZH: 这些内容在尾盘交易的课程中有具体的讲解 （注：第48单元的最后3节课）
Slide 028
Time: 52:00
Bilingual Transcript
52:02 - 52:10
EN: I mentioned earlier that beginners should make as few changes as possible
ZH: 前面我提到过，新手在交易时不应该变来变去， 这也包括入场的方式
52:06 - 52:10
EN: when they’re trading, and that includes how they enter trades.
ZH: 前面我提到过，新手在交易时不应该变来变去， 这也包括入场的方式
52:10 - 52:15
EN: Therefore, they should consider entering all trades with stop entries
ZH: 所以新手可以考虑，所有的交易都用突破单入场，
52:15 - 52:18
EN: instead of switching to selling closes during strong bear trends
ZH: 在强下降趋势中，不用改成卖收盘
52:18 - 52:21
EN: or buying closes during strong bull trends.
ZH: 在强上涨趋势中，不用改成买收盘
52:27 - 52:31
EN: For example, once they think the market
ZH: 比如，一旦你认为市场可能处于卖收盘的下降趋势
52:29 - 52:36
EN: might be entering a Sell The Close bear trend – we have a couple big bear bars,
ZH: 比如，一旦你认为市场可能处于卖收盘的下降趋势 有几根大阴线收在最低，或接近最低
52:34 - 52:36
EN: one closing on its low, one closing near its low
ZH: 有几根大阴线收在最低，或接近最低
52:37 - 52:40
EN: - the trader should assume the market’s going lower, and he has to get short.
ZH: 你应该假设市场会继续下跌，所以必须做空
52:40 - 52:43
EN: He doesn’t have to take every one of these sells,
ZH: 不需要在每根K线都卖出
52:43 - 52:45
EN: but he should take at least one.
ZH: 但至少应该抓住其中一个
52:45 - 52:50
EN: If he sees a bar closing near its low, he can place a stop order
ZH: 如果看到有阴线收在低位， 可以在它的最低点下方挂突破卖单
52:48 - 52:50
EN: to sell just below the low of that bar.
ZH: 如果看到有阴线收在低位， 可以在它的最低点下方挂突破卖单
52:50 - 52:52
EN: He would get filled in this blue box here.
ZH: 订单会在蓝色框框处成交
52:53 - 52:59
EN: If he did not take that first one, he could take the second
ZH: 即使错过了第1个入场点，也可以在第2或第3个入场点卖出， 然后把止损放在这里
52:56 - 52:59
EN: or the third and put his stop up here.
ZH: 即使错过了第1个入场点，也可以在第2或第3个入场点卖出， 然后把止损放在这里
52:59 - 53:03
EN: He would sit through this – this is just a pullback to the Moving Average
ZH: 然后坚定持有——这只是反弹回测均线而已
53:03 - 53:05
EN: - and hold for a swing down.
ZH: 在下跌波段中继续持有
53:05 - 53:08
EN: He does not have to take every trade.
ZH: 不需要在每个入场点都交易
53:08 - 53:14
EN: Scalpers will take lots of these trades and just keep entering,
ZH: 剥头皮交易者会不断地入场、止盈，入场、止盈
53:11 - 53:14
EN: taking profits, entering, taking profits.
ZH: 剥头皮交易者会不断地入场、止盈，入场、止盈
53:14 - 53:16
EN: But beginners should not be scalping.
ZH: 但新手交易者不应该做剥头皮交易
53:16 - 53:19
EN: They see a strong trend and they’re wondering, “How do I get short?”
ZH: 如果你看到一个很强的趋势，想知道：“我该如何入场做空？”
53:19 - 53:24
EN: Well, you can either sell the close or, if you see a relatively big bear bar
ZH: 你可以直接在阴线的收盘卖出； 或者当你看到一根较大的阴线收在低位时，
53:24 - 53:30
EN: closing on or near its low, just place a stop to go short 1 tick below its low.
ZH: 可以在它的最低点下方1个tick挂突破卖单
Slide 029
Time: 53:35
Bilingual Transcript
53:39 - 53:46
EN: It’s an attempt at a reversal, but it’s probably a minor reversal
ZH: 这是一次反转的尝试，但更有可能只是强势跌破后的小反弹， 所以很可能只是熊旗
53:42 - 53:46
EN: after this strong a bear breakout, and therefore it’s probably a bear flag.
ZH: 这是一次反转的尝试，但更有可能只是强势跌破后的小反弹， 所以很可能只是熊旗
53:46 - 53:51
EN: A lot of traders will sell again on a breakout below the bear flag,
ZH: 很多交易者会在跌破熊旗时再次卖出
53:51 - 53:54
EN: especially below a bear bar at the Moving Average.
ZH: 尤其是均线下方的熊旗
53:54 - 53:58
EN: A bear bar at the Moving Average, you sell below the low of the bar.
ZH: 均线下方的阴线，在它的低点下方卖出
53:58 - 54:02
EN: So you can take a stop entry below bear flags – this is a bear flag,
ZH: 你可以在熊旗下方挂突破卖单入场——这是一个熊旗
54:02 - 54:07
EN: here’s a small bear flag – looking for resumption of the bear trend,
ZH: 这里是一个小熊旗——押注下降趋势恢复
54:07 - 54:12
EN: especially if the reversal retraces about half of the bear leg
ZH: 尤其是50%反弹附近，或者反弹到均线附近的时候
54:11 - 54:12
EN: and gets near the Moving Average.
ZH: 尤其是50%反弹附近，或者反弹到均线附近的时候
54:12 - 54:14
EN: That’s the same here as well.
ZH: 这里也是一样
54:14 - 54:17
EN: It’s almost a 50% retracement of this bear leg.
ZH: 大约是这段下跌的50%反弹
54:17 - 54:20
EN: Got to the Moving Average, and now the bear trend is resuming down.
ZH: 回测均线，然后下降趋势正在恢复
54:20 - 54:22
EN: Traders sell with a stop below a bear bar,
ZH: 空头在它的下方挂突破卖单，
54:22 - 54:25
EN: get filled here, looking for a swing down.
ZH: 在这里成交，持有做波段交易
54:29 - 54:31
EN: Very Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 下降通道很窄
54:31 - 54:35
EN: Traders will look to sell bull closes that are near the Moving Average.
ZH: 空头会在均线附近的阳线收盘卖出
54:35 - 54:38
EN: This is no longer a Sell The Close bear trend.
ZH: 这不在是卖收盘的下降趋势
54:38 - 54:39
EN: It’s a channel.
ZH: 这是一个通道
54:39 - 54:45
EN: But I’m talking about how traders can enter in the channel phase
ZH: 我也稍微讲一下，当卖收盘的突破阶段结束， 在通道阶段应该如何入场
54:42 - 54:45
EN: after the Sell The Close bear trend has ended.
ZH: 我也稍微讲一下，当卖收盘的突破阶段结束， 在通道阶段应该如何入场
54:50 - 54:53
EN: They’ll sell above bars, betting that reversals will fail,
ZH: 空头会在K线上方挂限价卖单，押注反转失败
54:53 - 54:54
EN: especially above a bear bar.
ZH: 尤其是在阴线上方挂单
54:54 - 55:00
EN: That’s a bad buy signal bar, and therefore it’s probably
ZH: 它不是一个好的做多信号K， 所以大概率不是大反转的开始
54:57 - 55:00
EN: not the start of a significant reversal.
ZH: 它不是一个好的做多信号K， 所以大概率不是大反转的开始
Slide 030
Time: 55:05
Bilingual Transcript
55:05 - 55:10
EN: I began by talking about bull breakouts, especially very strong bull breakouts
ZH: 这节课我先是讲了多头突破，尤其是非常强势的多头突破——
55:10 - 55:15
EN: breakouts where you get a series of consecutive bull bars
ZH: 你会看到一系列连续的阳线收在高位
55:13 - 55:15
EN: closing at or near their highs.
ZH: 你会看到一系列连续的阳线收在高位
55:15 - 55:18
EN: Traders will buy the close of those bull trends.
ZH: 交易者会在那些阳线的收盘买入
55:18 - 55:20
EN: That’s a very strong type of bull trend.
ZH: 它是一种非常强势的上涨趋势
55:21 - 55:23
EN: There’s a bear equivalent.
ZH: 相对应的下降趋势
55:23 - 55:26
EN: If you start to get a series of bear bars, especially bear bars
ZH: 如果你看到一系列连续的阴线收在低位
55:26 - 55:29
EN: with good size bodies closing at or near their lows,
ZH: 尤其是体积较大的阴线收在低位
55:29 - 55:35
EN: traders are selling at the market, especially as soon as they see
ZH: 交易者会在阴线收盘的时候卖出做空
55:32 - 55:35
EN: another bear bar closing at or near its low.
ZH: 交易者会在阴线收盘的时候卖出做空
55:35 - 55:37
EN: That’s a Sell The Close bear trend.
ZH: 那就是卖收盘的下降趋势
55:41 - 55:42
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
55:42 - 55:44
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课
55:45 - 55:48
EN: This is the first of four videos on trading breakouts.
ZH: 如何交易突破行情的第1节课，就先讲到这里