al-brooks-course
39B - Trading MTR Bottoms
Raw transcript and slide notes for 39B - Trading MTR Bottoms.
Overview
- Slides: 14
- Transcript segments: 534
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:10
EN: This is the second of four videos on trading Major Trend Reversal Bottoms.
ZH: 这是底部大反转结构的第2节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:12
Bilingual Transcript
00:14 - 00:20
EN: I want to talk a little bit about minor reversals
ZH: 首先我会讲小反转和大反转的区别
00:17 - 00:20
EN: in contrast to major reversals.
ZH: 首先我会讲小反转和大反转的区别
00:21 - 00:25
EN: Also, I think it’s very important to understand that there is no best setup;
ZH: 另外，要能够理解不存在完美的机会，这一点非常重要
00:25 - 00:28
EN: however, good setups come every 2 or 3 bars.
ZH: 然而，每两三根K线，都会有一个不错的机会
00:29 - 00:33
EN: And when you’re in any trade, you always have to have a plan to take profits.
ZH: 做任何一笔交易，都必须要有止盈的计划
Slide 002
Time: 00:35
Bilingual Transcript
00:37 - 00:39
EN: This is the Emini, 5-minute chart.
ZH: 这是标普股指期货的5分钟K线图
00:46 - 00:48
EN: Very Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 非常窄的下降通道
00:49 - 00:53
EN: When a channel is this tight, it’s a breakout on a higher timeframe chart.
ZH: 这么窄的通道，在更高时间周期的K线图上，就是一次突破
00:53 - 00:58
EN: Here we have a little pullback, a little pullback,
ZH: 这里有反弹，反弹，反弹， 但反弹只持续一两根K线
00:55 - 00:58
EN: a little pullback, but the pullbacks are only lasting a bar or two.
ZH: 这里有反弹，反弹，反弹， 但反弹只持续一两根K线
00:58 - 01:05
EN: These pullbacks are all minor, and on a 15-minute or 30-minute chart,
ZH: 这些都是小反转，而在15分钟或30分钟的K线图上， 甚至根本看不到有任何的反弹
01:03 - 01:05
EN: there would be no pullbacks at all.
ZH: 这些都是小反转，而在15分钟或30分钟的K线图上， 甚至根本看不到有任何的反弹
01:05 - 01:08
EN: It would simply be a series of strong bear bars.
ZH: 直接就是一系列强势的大阴线
01:09 - 01:12
EN: And that means it’s a breakout on the next higher timeframe.
ZH: 所以它在更高的时间周期上，就是突破
01:12 - 01:15
EN: If the market’s in a strong bear breakout, you cannot buy.
ZH: 如果市场处于强势的空头突破阶段，就不能做多
01:15 - 01:19
EN: You can only look to sell until there’s significant Buying Pressure.
ZH: 只能一直做空，直到出现了明显的买压
01:25 - 01:27
EN: A beginner will look at these 4 bull bars and say,
ZH: 一个新手看到这4根阳线后，可能会说：
01:27 - 01:30
EN: “Wow, it’s becoming a bull trend,” but it’s not.
ZH: “哇！V型反转啦！”但事实并非如此
01:32 - 01:36
EN: Beginners are constantly buying reversals, believing that the trend has ended,
ZH: 新手不断地买入做多，押注下降趋势已经结束
01:36 - 01:41
EN: and they want to get in as early as possible
ZH: 他们想尽早入场，因为这样做止损更小
01:38 - 01:41
EN: because then they’re risking less money.
ZH: 他们想尽早入场，因为这样做止损更小
01:41 - 01:43
EN: And beginners just think about risk all the time.
ZH: 新手满脑子都是风险
01:43 - 01:45
EN: They ignore reward and probability.
ZH: 他们忽视了利润和概率
01:45 - 01:49
EN: The probability of this becoming a bull trend is very, very small.
ZH: 这么强的下降趋势，变成上涨趋势的概率非常非常小
01:49 - 01:52
EN: More likely it’s a minor reversal and bears will sell it.
ZH: 更有可能的是，它是小反转，空头会逢高卖出
01:53 - 01:57
EN: What causes it? Well, the bears have a stop that’s very far away.
ZH: 为什么会有反弹？因为空头的止损越来越远
01:57 - 01:59
EN: Their risk is getting greater.
ZH: 他们（利润回撤）的风险在增加
01:59 - 02:02
EN: They want to reduce their risk.
ZH: 他们想要减少风险，所以必须要减仓止盈
02:00 - 02:02
EN: They have to take some profits.
ZH: 他们想要减少风险，所以必须要减仓止盈
02:02 - 02:06
EN: Bull scalpers might be buying as well, looking for a test of the Moving Average.
ZH: 一些剥头皮的多头可能也在买入， 预期价格会反弹测试均线
02:06 - 02:08
EN: They’re not looking for a bull trend.
ZH: 他们押注的不是上涨趋势
02:08 - 02:11
EN: When it gets to the Moving Average, the bulls take their profits
ZH: 当价格反弹到均线时，多头止盈
02:11 - 02:16
EN: and the bears who were selling far below an average price for all
ZH: 而空头之前都是低于平均价格做空
02:16 - 02:19
EN: of these bars finally get a chance to sell at the average price.
ZH: 现在终于有机会在平均价格卖出
02:19 - 02:24
EN: They’re going to take it, as they did here, here, here, here, here.
ZH: 他们肯定会抓住这个机会， 就像在这里，这里，这里，这里，这里卖出做空
02:26 - 02:31
EN: Beginners see all of these reversals
ZH: 新手把这些反弹当作是潜在的大反转，但实际上并不是
02:29 - 02:31
EN: as potential major reversals, but they’re not.
ZH: 新手把这些反弹当作是潜在的大反转，但实际上并不是
02:31 - 02:32
EN: They’re minor.
ZH: 它们只是小反转
02:32 - 02:37
EN: The bulls need to develop more Buying Pressure
ZH: 多头需要制造更大的买压，才能形成大反转
02:35 - 02:37
EN: before they can get a major reversal.
ZH: 多头需要制造更大的买压，才能形成大反转
02:40 - 02:41
EN: The beginner buys here.
ZH: 新手在这里买入
02:41 - 02:43
EN: We have a break above the bear channel.
ZH: 因为之前突破了下降通道
02:43 - 02:45
EN: We tested the Moving Average – good for the bulls.
ZH: 然后测试了均线——对多头有利
02:45 - 02:47
EN: We have 4 consecutive bull bars – good for the bulls.
ZH: 有连续4根阳线——对多头有利
02:47 - 02:52
EN: We have a Higher Low with a weak selloff, a bull bar closing on its high,
ZH: 恢复下跌，形成更高的低点，然后出现了收在高位的阳线
02:52 - 02:56
EN: and now we even have a Double Bottom Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 甚至可以看作是低点抬高的双底大反转结构
02:56 - 03:01
EN: But it’s probably minor because 4 bull bars is not enough Buying Pressure.
ZH: 但它大概率只是小反转，因为这4根阳线的买压不够大
03:01 - 03:05
EN: If the 4 bull bars were very, very big, that would be enough.
ZH: 如果这4根阳线非常非常大，那就足够了
03:06 - 03:08
EN: But look at the size of these bodies.
ZH: 但看看它们的体积
03:08 - 03:10
EN: They’re getting smaller, smaller, smaller.
ZH: 它们的体积越来越小，越来越小
03:10 - 03:16
EN: This is not enough Buying Pressure for traders to believe
ZH: 这不足以让交易者相信多头可以掌控市场、制造上涨趋势
03:14 - 03:16
EN: the bulls can take control and create a bull trend.
ZH: 这不足以让交易者相信多头可以掌控市场、制造上涨趋势
03:16 - 03:22
EN: They might be able to create a Trading Range
ZH: 靠这样的买压，他们也许能够让市场进入震荡区间， 但很难反转进入上涨趋势
03:18 - 03:22
EN: after this Buying Pressure, but a bull trend is not likely.
ZH: 靠这样的买压，他们也许能够让市场进入震荡区间， 但很难反转进入上涨趋势
03:23 - 03:30
EN: A minor reversal in my mind is a reversal
ZH: 在我看来，如果按照单边下跌去交易的话， 这样的小反弹是可以忽视的
03:27 - 03:30
EN: that you’re ignoring if you’re trading Always In Short.
ZH: 在我看来，如果按照单边下跌去交易的话， 这样的小反弹是可以忽视的
03:30 - 03:34
EN: In other words, it’s what traders sometimes refer to as “noise.”
ZH: 换句话说，这就是所谓的“市场的噪音”
03:34 - 03:36
EN: They’ll look at this and say, “Oh, that’s just noise.”
ZH: 一些交易者会说：“这个反弹只是噪音。”
03:36 - 03:39
EN: I don’t use the term “noise.” I use the term “minor reversal.”
ZH: 我不讲“噪音”这个词，而是讲“小反转”
03:39 - 03:45
EN: Basically, noise is a reversal that is too small for you to take action.
ZH: 噪音指的就是：反转幅度太小了，不足以让你采取任何行动
03:48 - 03:51
EN: Now, we broke above the bull trend line.
ZH: 刚才突破了下降趋势线
03:51 - 03:53
EN: We have a Higher Low, not a particularly strong selloff,
ZH: 跌到了新的低点，抛售不算特别强势
03:53 - 03:55
EN: we have a good buy signal bar.
ZH: 而且出现了好的做多信号K线
03:55 - 03:58
EN: We have a Lower Low.
ZH: （重复）跌到了新的低点，抛售不算特别强势
03:57 - 03:58
EN: It’s not a particularly strong selloff.
ZH: （重复）跌到了新的低点，抛售不算特别强势
03:58 - 04:00
EN: We have a good buy signal bar.
ZH: 而且出现了好的做多信号K线
04:00 - 04:04
EN: Is this a Major Trend Reversal? Well, you still have the problem of this.
ZH: 这次会是大反转吗？还是一样的问题
04:04 - 04:06
EN: This is just not enough Buying Pressure.
ZH: 还是没有足够的买压
04:06 - 04:13
EN: If this rally went far above this high, then this could be a major reversal,
ZH: 如果这里的反弹远远超过前期的高点， 那么接下来有可能是大反转
04:13 - 04:14
EN: but it’s probably still minor.
ZH: 但这里大概率仍然只是小反转
04:14 - 04:18
EN: The channel here is tight, the channel starting here is tight,
ZH: 这里的下降通道很窄，或者从这里开始，也是比较窄的
04:18 - 04:21
EN: and the 4 bull bars with shrinking bodies
ZH: 只是凭借这4根体积越来越小的阳线，
04:21 - 04:24
EN: - it’s probably not enough to lead to a bull trend.
ZH: 很难反转成为上涨趋势
04:25 - 04:27
EN: What about here? Now we have a Double Bottom
ZH: 这里呢？有一个双底
04:27 - 04:29
EN: or a slightly Higher Low Double Bottom.
ZH: 而且低点略微抬高
04:29 - 04:31
EN: Again, a bull bar.
ZH: 有阳线收在最高
04:31 - 04:32
EN: We’re starting to go sideways.
ZH: 市场开始横盘
04:32 - 04:34
EN: We have a Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 这是一个窄震荡区间
04:34 - 04:35
EN: Still probably minor.
ZH: 大概率还是小反转
04:35 - 04:37
EN: And this is probably minor as well,
ZH: 就算是这里，大概率也是小反转
04:37 - 04:40
EN: even though we did get a pretty good swing up here.
ZH: 尽管最终发展成了一个不错的上涨波段
Slide 003
Time: 04:45
Bilingual Transcript
04:49 - 04:52
EN: When an expert looks at all of these reversals,
ZH: 当一个职业交易员看到所有的这些反转尝试
04:52 - 04:56
EN: he sees bears taking profits to reduce their risk,
ZH: 他知道这是空头止盈所引起的
04:57 - 05:01
EN: and he sees also bears are selling every time it gets back to an average price.
ZH: 而且他看到空头每次都在反弹到均线时卖出做空
05:01 - 05:04
EN: Every time it gets near the Moving Average, the bears are selling.
ZH: 每次接近均线时，空头都会卖出
05:04 - 05:08
EN: Shrinking bodies, loss of momentum on the part of the bulls.
ZH: 阳线的体积越来越小，多头失去了动能
05:08 - 05:13
EN: Plus the size of the bull bodies is small compared
ZH: 而且，和阴线相比，这些阳线的体积相对较小
05:11 - 05:13
EN: to the size of the bear bodies.
ZH: 而且，和阴线相比，这些阳线的体积相对较小
05:13 - 05:18
EN: There’s just not enough strength on the part of the bulls
ZH: 多头展现出的力量，实在不足以让交易者期待会反转成上涨趋势
05:15 - 05:18
EN: for traders to be looking for a bull trend.
ZH: 多头展现出的力量，实在不足以让交易者期待会反转成上涨趋势
05:22 - 05:25
EN: The market has been below the Moving Average for a long time.
ZH: 价格在均线下方已经很长时间了
05:25 - 05:29
EN: Traders have been willing to sell far below the average price for a lot of bars.
ZH: 空头很长一段时间内，都愿意在远低于平均价格的地方去追空
05:29 - 05:32
EN: What’s going to happen when it gets to the average price?
ZH: 那么反弹到平均价格的时候会发生什么？
05:32 - 05:36
EN: They’re going to say, “Wow, I’ve been willing to sell below average price,
ZH: 他们会想：“之前我低于平均价格追空
05:36 - 05:38
EN: and now I finally get to sell way up there at the average price.
ZH: 现在终于反弹到了平均价格
05:38 - 05:41
EN: I’m going to sell,” and the bears did that repeatedly.
ZH: 这是加仓卖出的好机会。” 所以空头不断地在均线卖出
05:42 - 05:45
EN: A 20 gap bar test of the Moving Average.
ZH: 至少连续20根K线没有碰到过均线
05:45 - 05:48
EN: There’s a gap between the high of this bar and the Moving Average.
ZH: 这根K线的高点和均线之间有缺口
05:48 - 05:52
EN: 20 or more bars have had gaps to the Moving Average.
ZH: 至少20根K线和均线之间有缺口
05:52 - 05:56
EN: Whenever you get to the Moving Average, bears are going to sell,
ZH: 每当价格反弹到均线，空头就会卖出
05:56 - 05:59
EN: and the bull scalpers who bought for any reason, they’re going to take profits
ZH: 而买入做剥头皮的多头，他们会在均线止盈
05:59 - 06:03
EN: because they know they will be overwhelmed by the bears,
ZH: 因为他们知道会被强大的空头碾压
06:03 - 06:06
EN: and they know it’s very unlikely that they’re going to get a major reversal,
ZH: 他们知道不太可能会有大反转
06:06 - 06:13
EN: and therefore the best they’re getting is a bear flag or a bull leg
ZH: 因此最多是熊旗，或者震荡区间内的上涨， 然后市场会继续下跌
06:10 - 06:13
EN: in a Trading Range and the market’s going lower.
ZH: 因此最多是熊旗，或者震荡区间内的上涨， 然后市场会继续下跌
06:17 - 06:21
EN: Traders are selling at the Moving Average with limit orders.
ZH: 交易者在均线挂限价卖单
06:21 - 06:23
EN: They’re selling bull closes at the Moving Average.
ZH: 如果有阳线收盘在均线附近，他们就在这个阳线的收盘卖出
06:24 - 06:26
EN: They’re selling reversals down at the Moving Average,
ZH: 价格从均线开始反转下跌时，他们卖出
06:26 - 06:32
EN: especially below a bear bar here, below a bear bar here, below a bear bar here.
ZH: 尤其是在这根阴线、这根阴线、这根阴线的下方
06:32 - 06:33
EN: Below this bar as well.
ZH: 还有这根K线下方
06:33 - 06:34
EN: They’ll sell that too.
ZH: 他们也会在这里卖出
06:35 - 06:39
EN: They see it’s weakening and we’re starting to go sideways
ZH: 空头看到下降趋势正在变弱，开始横盘进入窄震荡区间
06:37 - 06:43
EN: into a Tight Trading Range, but until there’s a clear reversal,
ZH: 空头看到下降趋势正在变弱，开始横盘进入窄震荡区间 但除非出现明确的反转，否则他们还是会继续卖出
06:41 - 06:43
EN: they’re going to continue to sell.
ZH: 但除非出现明确的反转，否则他们还是会继续卖出
06:47 - 06:52
EN: Very strong bear trend, and we have an attempt
ZH: 非常强的下降趋势，这里尝试形成双底， 低点略微降低
06:49 - 06:52
EN: at a Double Bottom, a slightly Lower Low Double Bottom.
ZH: 非常强的下降趋势，这里尝试形成双底， 低点略微降低
Slide 004
Time: 06:50
Bilingual Transcript
06:58 - 07:00
EN: 2 consecutive bull bars.
ZH: 这里有连续两根阳线
07:01 - 07:02
EN: Pretty good size bull bars.
ZH: 体积较大，很不错
07:02 - 07:07
EN: This bull bar is bigger than all the bear bars
ZH: 这根阳线比左边近10根K线里的任何阴线都要大， 甚至比它更大一点
07:05 - 07:07
EN: for the past 10 bars, maybe even bigger than that.
ZH: 这根阳线比左边近10根K线里的任何阴线都要大， 甚至比它更大一点
07:08 - 07:09
EN: Pretty good Buying Pressure.
ZH: 非常不错的买压
07:09 - 07:13
EN: Is that enough for this to be a Lower Low Major Trend Reversal?
ZH: 这是否足以形成低点降低的大反转?
07:13 - 07:17
EN: Well, this is a minor reversal, and would you buy above this bear bar?
ZH: 这两根阳线只是小反转，你会在这根阴线的上方买入吗？
07:17 - 07:19
EN: No, it’s probably a minor reversal as well.
ZH: 不会，它大概率也是小反转
07:20 - 07:25
EN: Furthermore, these 2 bull bars, as strong as they are,
ZH: 此外，这两根阳线虽然强势，但没有碰到均线
07:23 - 07:25
EN: never got to the Moving Average.
ZH: 此外，这两根阳线虽然强势，但没有碰到均线
07:25 - 07:29
EN: This is a minor reversal, and initially this is a minor reversal as well.
ZH: 它是小反转，这里一开始也（大概率）是小反转
07:31 - 07:32
EN: Yet look what we got.
ZH: 但是看后面的行情
07:33 - 07:37
EN: We have a minor reversal that leads to a strong bull trend.
ZH: 小反转发展成了一个强势的上涨趋势
07:37 - 07:38
EN: How can that happen?
ZH: 怎么会这样呢？
07:44 - 07:49
EN: Sometimes a minor reversal can lead
ZH: 有时小反转会发展成大的趋势，就像这个案例
07:47 - 07:49
EN: to a major trend change, as it did here.
ZH: 有时小反转会发展成大的趋势，就像这个案例
07:49 - 07:55
EN: Here we have another pair of very big bull bars,
ZH: 这里又有两根非常大的大阳线，比之前的更大
07:52 - 07:55
EN: and these are even bigger than this.
ZH: 这里又有两根非常大的大阳线，比之前的更大
07:55 - 07:57
EN: Therefore, this is a Double Bottom, slightly Lower Low,
ZH: 所以这是低点略微降低的双底，
07:57 - 07:59
EN: and a very strong reversal up.
ZH: 然后强势反转上涨
07:59 - 08:03
EN: By the close of this bar, you have to assume the bulls are in control,
ZH: 在这根大阳线收盘时，你必须假设多头已经掌控了市场
08:03 - 08:06
EN: the market’s Always In Long, that we’re going higher
ZH: 现在处于单边上涨，还会涨得更高
08:06 - 08:10
EN: - maybe for a Measured Move up based upon the height of the Double Bottom.
ZH: 也许会涨到MM目标位——把双底的高度往上翻一倍
08:10 - 08:12
EN: Here’s the neckline, Measured Move up.
ZH: 这里是颈线，MM目标位在上方
08:12 - 08:18
EN: Maybe based upon the open of the first bar
ZH: 或者从突破的第1根K线的开盘价， 到第2根K线的收盘价，往上翻一倍
08:15 - 08:18
EN: to the close of the second bar of this strong reversal.
ZH: 或者从突破的第1根K线的开盘价， 到第2根K线的收盘价，往上翻一倍
08:18 - 08:19
EN: That would be up here.
ZH: 目标位在这里
08:20 - 08:24
EN: Would I call this a Lower Low Major Trend Reversal? I would not.
ZH: 我不会说它是低点降低的大反转结构 （注：因为K线数量不够，第1次的反弹也不够强）
08:24 - 08:28
EN: I would call it a Double Bottom and a minor reversal
ZH: 我把它看作小双底，但反转足够强势
08:27 - 08:28
EN: that is exceptionally strong.
ZH: 我把它看作小双底，但反转足够强势
08:28 - 08:32
EN: But you always have to look at other things as well.
ZH: 你总是需要观察更多的背景
08:32 - 08:38
EN: Sometimes it’s better to look back at the past few days to see
ZH: 比如回顾过去几天的行情，看看它是不是一个大结构的一部分
08:36 - 08:38
EN: if this is part of a larger pattern.
ZH: 比如回顾过去几天的行情，看看它是不是一个大结构的一部分
08:43 - 08:46
EN: I would not call it a Lower Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 我不会说它是低点降低的大反转
08:46 - 08:50
EN: I would call it a minor reversal that was strong enough for me to buy.
ZH: 而是一个非常强势的小反转，足以让我买入做多
08:50 - 08:53
EN: So at this point, I would assume that even though it looks
ZH: 所以在这个时候，我会假设：尽管它目前大概率仍然是小反转
08:53 - 08:57
EN: like a minor reversal, it’s probably going to turn into a major reversal.
ZH: 但也有可能会发展成大反转
08:57 - 09:01
EN: I would buy either above this bar or the close of this bar
ZH: 可以在这根K线上方买入，或者在这根K线的收盘买入
09:01 - 09:05
EN: or the close of this bar or the close of that follow-through bar.
ZH: 或者在这根K线的收盘买入，或者在跟随K线的收盘买入
09:05 - 09:08
EN: At this point I believe the bulls have taken control
ZH: 到了这里，我相信多头已经获得了掌控权
09:08 - 09:10
EN: and that we’re going up for at least a couple legs.
ZH: 至少还有几段上涨
09:11 - 09:14
EN: Here’s a second leg up, but it’s strong enough with good follow-through
ZH: 这是第2段上涨，但它足够强势，跟随K线是阳线
09:14 - 09:17
EN: - a bull body – to make me think we’re still going higher.
ZH: 因此我认为还会继续上涨
09:18 - 09:20
EN: At this point I think we’re in a bull trend.
ZH: 在这里，市场已经处于上涨趋势
09:20 - 09:23
EN: I don’t know if we’ll simply test the low of this breakout point
ZH: 我不确定会不会只是去测试这个低点，
09:23 - 09:26
EN: or the top of this bear leg, but I think we’re going higher,
ZH: 还是一直涨到下跌波段的起跌点， 但我知道至少还会再涨一些
09:26 - 09:32
EN: and therefore I think a major reversal is underway
ZH: 所以我认为大反转正在发生，尽管它并没有大反转的标准结构
09:29 - 09:32
EN: even though the setup itself is minor.
ZH: 所以我认为大反转正在发生，尽管它并没有大反转的标准结构
09:40 - 09:43
EN: If you look back over the past several days, this is what you see.
ZH: 如果你回顾过去几天的行情，就会看到这个
09:43 - 09:45
EN: We reversed up, we reversed up.
ZH: 反转上涨，反转上涨
09:45 - 09:50
EN: Now we have a trend channel, and now we’re reversing up again
ZH: 现在又到了通道的底部，两次尝试从底部向上反转
09:48 - 09:50
EN: twice at the bottom of the channel.
ZH: 现在又到了通道的底部，两次尝试从底部向上反转
09:50 - 09:53
EN: This little Double Bottom is this Double Bottom.
ZH: 这个小双底，就是这个双底
09:53 - 09:56
EN: If you only look at this chart, you’d say minor reversal.
ZH: 如果你只看这张图，看到的只是小反转
09:56 - 10:01
EN: But if you look back over the past 4 days, you’d say, wait a minute.
ZH: 但如果你回顾过去4天的背景，你会说：“等等！ 这是第3次反转上涨了！”
09:59 - 10:01
EN: That’s three reversals up.
ZH: 但如果你回顾过去4天的背景，你会说：“等等！ 这是第3次反转上涨了！”
10:01 - 10:05
EN: Therefore, this is a type of a Wedge even though it does not have a Wedge shape.
ZH: 所以这是3推楔形底，尽管它没有收敛的楔形形状
10:05 - 10:11
EN: A Wedge reversal with good Buying Pressure, and the Wedge is a major reversal.
ZH: 楔形通道中存在良好的买压（反弹幅度很大）， 而楔形底是大反转的结构
10:11 - 10:15
EN: Looking for at least a test of the top of the Wedge – which we got right here.
ZH: 目标至少是测试通道的上沿——就像这样
10:17 - 10:22
EN: Therefore, looking at this, I would not call it a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 所以单看这里的结构，我不会说它是大反转
10:22 - 10:25
EN: However, looking at the past 4 days, I would say,
ZH: 但是，结合过去4天的背景，
10:25 - 10:27
EN: eh, it’s basically a Wedge Bottom.
ZH: 我会把它看作楔形底
10:27 - 10:31
EN: It’s a second strong reversal up from the bottom of a 4 day bear channel.
ZH: 第2次从通道的下沿反转上涨
10:31 - 10:35
EN: We’re probably going to go up to the top of the bear channel, which is up here,
ZH: 很可能会反转到通道的上沿，也就是这里
10:35 - 10:40
EN: and therefore I would trade this as a major reversal even though,
ZH: 所以我会按照大反转的方式来交易
10:40 - 10:42
EN: just looking at this, it appears minor.
ZH: 但如果只看这里，它似乎只会是小反转
10:47 - 10:51
EN: Beginners are always wanting best setups, perfect trades,
ZH: 新手总是想要抓住最佳入场点、最完美的机会
Slide 005
Time: 10:50
Bilingual Transcript
10:51 - 10:57
EN: but there cannot be a perfect trade because if there was an easy way to see
ZH: 但不可能有完美的机会， 因为如果可以轻松看出一个机会是完美的
10:56 - 10:59
EN: that a trade is perfect, everyone would take it
ZH: 但不可能有完美的机会， 因为如果可以轻松看出一个机会是完美的 那每个人都会去做
10:59 - 11:03
EN: and no one would take the opposite side, and therefore the trade would not move.
ZH: 同时就没有人愿意站在另一边成为对手盘， 所以交易根本无法达成
11:03 - 11:04
EN: It would not work.
ZH: 不存在这样的事
Slide 006
Time: 11:06
Bilingual Transcript
11:14 - 11:18
EN: There’s no best setup, but you should never worry about entering late.
ZH: 既然不存在完美的入场，所以也就不用担心自己入场晚了
11:18 - 11:21
EN: There are good setups every few bars.
ZH: 每隔几根K线就有好的机会
11:21 - 11:24
EN: At this point you say, “Eh, we’re going higher.
ZH: 在这个时候你想到：“看起来要上涨了，我得买入。”
11:23 - 11:30
EN: I’ve got to buy.” Even though it’s been about 20 bars
ZH: 在这个时候你想到：“看起来要上涨了，我得买入。” 尽管这是过去20多根K线以来第一次碰到均线， 但大的背景很好（注：结合过去几天的背景）
11:26 - 11:30
EN: since touching the Moving Average, the context is very good.
ZH: 尽管这是过去20多根K线以来第一次碰到均线， 但大的背景很好（注：结合过去几天的背景）
11:30 - 11:33
EN: Bottom of a channel and we’re reversing up twice, and both reversals are strong,
ZH: 现在处于宽通道的下沿，第2次尝试反转上涨， 而且两次反转都很强势
11:33 - 11:39
EN: and now we have a couple very strong bull bars
ZH: 这里有两根大阳线，之前也是两根大阳线
11:36 - 11:39
EN: following another pair of very strong bull bars.
ZH: 这里有两根大阳线，之前也是两根大阳线
11:39 - 11:40
EN: So we’re probably going higher.
ZH: 所以大概率会上涨
11:41 - 11:43
EN: Therefore you can buy for any reason.
ZH: 你可以用任何方式买入
11:43 - 11:45
EN: You can buy at the market, you can buy bull closes,
ZH: 你可以市价买入，可以买阳线的收盘
11:45 - 11:49
EN: you can buy bear closes, you can buy below bars, you can buy above bars.
ZH: 可以买阴线的收盘，可以在K线下方挂限价买单， 可以在K线上方挂突破买单
11:49 - 11:50
EN: You need to get long.
ZH: 总之，买入做多
11:50 - 11:51
EN: Stop down here.
ZH: 止损放在下面
11:53 - 11:56
EN: It does not matter if you did not take this buy or that buy.
ZH: 如果你没有在这里或这里买入，也不要紧
11:56 - 11:57
EN: It does not matter.
ZH: 没有关系
11:57 - 11:59
EN: We’re going higher, and therefore you have to buy.
ZH: 市场还会继续上涨，只要买入就可以了
12:06 - 12:10
EN: The minimum target to make the trade mathematically good,
ZH: 从数学的角度触发，要想让数学期望为正，
12:10 - 12:14
EN: to have a positive Trader’s Equation, is two times the Actual Risk.
ZH: 最低的利润目标是两倍实际风险
12:14 - 12:17
EN: If you bought above the high of this bar, you get filled over here,
ZH: 如果你在这根K线的高点上方挂突破买单， 订单会在这里成交
12:17 - 12:20
EN: and by the close of this bar you know that you only had
ZH: 等到它的收盘，你就知道，
12:20 - 12:23
EN: to risk a very little amount to stay in the trade.
ZH: 这笔交易实际上承担的风险非常小
12:23 - 12:26
EN: So if you bought above the high of this bar,
ZH: 所以，如果你在这根K线的高点上方挂突破买单
12:26 - 12:29
EN: you get filled here and you put your stop right here
ZH: 在这里成交，事后来看，只需要把止损放在这里
12:29 - 12:32
EN: - not knowing where the bottom of this bar would be.
ZH: ——尽管入场的时候你并不知道这根K线的最低点会在哪里
12:33 - 12:35
EN: You would not have been stopped out,
ZH: 你的止损是不会被打到的
12:35 - 12:37
EN: so your Actual Risk would’ve been very, very tiny.
ZH: 所以实际止损非常非常小
12:37 - 12:40
EN: Two times your Actual Risk would be right here.
ZH: 两倍的实际风险在这里
12:40 - 12:42
EN: Is that a good location to take profits?
ZH: 在这里止盈是不是一个好的决定？
12:43 - 12:46
EN: Mathematically, it gives you a positive Trader’s Equation,
ZH: 从数学上看，这笔交易的数学期望为正
12:46 - 12:49
EN: and therefore it is acceptable to do that.
ZH: 所以在这里止盈是可以接受的
12:49 - 12:54
EN: If you do that with 100 trades that look similar to this, you will make money.
ZH: 如果你用这种方法做100笔交易，你是可以赚钱的
12:54 - 13:04
EN: But going for the minimum is rarely ever the best, and when you have a reversal
ZH: 但最低目标往往不是最好的选择， 如果出现了这么强势的反转，而实际风险非常小，
13:00 - 13:04
EN: that’s big like this and you have very small Actual Risk,
ZH: 但最低目标往往不是最好的选择， 如果出现了这么强势的反转，而实际风险非常小，
13:04 - 13:07
EN: you have to go for far more profit than the Actual Risk.
ZH: 你完全可以追求更大的利润
13:07 - 13:14
EN: You can continue to hold until there’s some reasonable setup
ZH: 你可以继续持有，直到出现可靠的信号告诉你反转的前提不再成立
13:12 - 13:14
EN: that tells you that your premise is no longer valid.
ZH: 你可以继续持有，直到出现可靠的信号告诉你反转的前提不再成立
13:14 - 13:17
EN: Even through here, this looks like a minor reversal down,
ZH: 就算是这里，仍然更可能是小反转
13:17 - 13:20
EN: and bulls could continue to hold until the end of the day.
ZH: 多头可以继续持有到收盘
13:21 - 13:25
EN: They would make, in this trade, 25 points or so, 35 points,
ZH: 最终，这笔交易可以赚25个点，甚至35个点
13:25 - 13:28
EN: which is 10, 20, 30 times bigger than their Actual Risk.
ZH: 是实际风险的几十倍
13:35 - 13:39
EN: I said there are many setups occurring all day long.
ZH: 之前提到，一整天都有交易机会
13:40 - 13:45
EN: Every setup has a tradeoff between probability and risk/reward ratio.
ZH: 每一笔交易都需要在概率和盈亏比之间做权衡
13:45 - 13:47
EN: Some have very high probability
ZH: 一些机会的胜率非常高
13:47 - 13:51
EN: - for example, buying this close has a very high probability
ZH: ——比如，在它的收盘买入做多， 很高的概率可以涨到某个MM目标位
13:49 - 13:51
EN: of some kind of a Measured Move up,
ZH: ——比如，在它的收盘买入做多， 很高的概率可以涨到某个MM目标位
13:51 - 13:54
EN: maybe based upon the neckline of this Double Bottom.
ZH: 比如把这个双底的高度往上翻一倍
13:54 - 13:56
EN: Maybe we’ll go for a Measured Move up there.
ZH: MM目标位在这里附近
13:56 - 14:00
EN: Maybe based upon the bodies of these 2 consecutive bull bars.
ZH: 或者把这两根大阳线的高度往上翻一倍
14:00 - 14:01
EN: Maybe we’ll go up here.
ZH: 大约在这个位置
14:01 - 14:06
EN: In any case, this has a high probability of making profit,
ZH: 总之，在这里买入赚钱的概率很高
14:06 - 14:09
EN: but the stop is far, so the risk is great.
ZH: 但止损比较远，所以风险较大
14:09 - 14:12
EN: Also, if you’re entering here compared to entering here,
ZH: 同时，在这里买入，和在这里买入相比，
14:12 - 14:14
EN: there’s less reward left in the trade.
ZH: 剩余的利润更少了
14:14 - 14:19
EN: So entering here, you have a high probability trade but the risk is great,
ZH: 在这里买入，胜率很高，但风险更大，
14:20 - 14:23
EN: and therefore the risk/reward ratio is not all that good.
ZH: 所以盈亏比就没有那么好
14:23 - 14:24
EN: That’s the tradeoff.
ZH: 这就是代价
14:24 - 14:26
EN: Whenever you take a high probability trade
ZH: 当一笔交易的胜率很高
14:26 - 14:32
EN: - for example, buying this close or buying this close – your stop is down here.
ZH: ——比如，在它的收盘，或者它的收盘买入—— 你的止损在这里，风险较大
14:30 - 14:32
EN: Your risk is great.
ZH: ——比如，在它的收盘，或者它的收盘买入—— 你的止损在这里，风险较大
14:32 - 14:33
EN: There’s always a tradeoff.
ZH: 胜率和盈亏比总是矛盾的
14:33 - 14:40
EN: If you get high probability, the firm taking the opposite side
ZH: 如果你获得了胜率的优势， 那么你的对手盘就获得了好的盈亏比
14:37 - 14:40
EN: of your trade has great risk/reward.
ZH: 如果你获得了胜率的优势， 那么你的对手盘就获得了好的盈亏比
14:40 - 14:43
EN: If you take a trade that has great risk/reward
ZH: 如果你想做一笔盈亏比非常大的交易
14:43 - 14:47
EN: - for example, let’s say you placed a limit order to buy at the low of this bar
ZH: ——比如，假设你在这根K线的低点挂限价买单
14:47 - 14:51
EN: - you have low probability of success, but maybe you have a very tight stop.
ZH: 而且用很窄的止损，那么你的胜率会很低
14:51 - 14:53
EN: Your risk/reward is very good.
ZH: 但盈亏比非常好
14:53 - 14:57
EN: Huge reward, small risk.
ZH: 大利润，小风险，但胜率低
14:55 - 14:57
EN: But low probability.
ZH: 大利润，小风险，但胜率低
14:58 - 15:03
EN: Every trade has a tradeoff between probability and risk/reward.
ZH: 每一笔交易都需要在概率和盈亏比之间做出权衡
15:04 - 15:05
EN: No trade is perfect.
ZH: 所以没有完美的机会
15:08 - 15:11
EN: Again, there are setups all day long.
ZH: 实际上机会到处都是
15:11 - 15:13
EN: When you have a strong bull trend like this,
ZH: 当你看到这么强的上涨趋势
15:13 - 15:16
EN: you can take these buys, you can buy below bars.
ZH: 可以在刚才讲的这些地方买入， 可以在K线下方挂限价买单，
15:16 - 15:19
EN: You can buy a strong bear close, betting the bear reversal will fail.
ZH: 可以在阴线的收盘买入，押注反转会失败
15:20 - 15:23
EN: You can buy above a bar in a pullback, betting the pullback is a bull flag.
ZH: 回调之后，可以在K线上方挂突破买单，押注这是一个牛旗
15:23 - 15:25
EN: Now we have a Buy The Close rally.
ZH: 现在，市场进入了“买收盘”的上涨趋势
15:25 - 15:27
EN: You can buy any of these closes.
ZH: 你可以在任何一根K线的收盘买入
15:28 - 15:30
EN: Here, the bears are trying to reverse down,
ZH: 这里，空头尝试反转下跌
15:30 - 15:32
EN: but we get a close above the high of that bar.
ZH: 但下一根K线的收盘高于它的最高点
15:32 - 15:33
EN: You can buy that.
ZH: 可以（在它的收盘）买入
15:33 - 15:35
EN: Again, buy below a bear bar.
ZH: 或者，在阴线下方挂限价买单
15:35 - 15:38
EN: We have a High 2 buy with a decent bull body.
ZH: 这是高2买入点，而且信号K线是不错的阳线
15:38 - 15:39
EN: You can buy there.
ZH: 可以在这里买入
15:40 - 15:44
EN: We have a Lower Low, a failed breakout below the Buy Climax,
ZH: 继续回调，尝试跌破抢购高潮的起涨点
15:44 - 15:47
EN: and this forms a Double Bottom and we’re reversing up.
ZH: 但是失败，形成了双底，开始反转甚至
15:47 - 15:49
EN: It’s a 20 gap bar buy.
ZH: 这是买入的机会
15:49 - 15:52
EN: It’s been about 20 bars since the market has been to the Moving Average.
ZH: 过去大约20根K线一直在均线上方运行，
15:53 - 15:55
EN: We have a bull bar after the bear breakout.
ZH: 空头第一次跌破均线，但后面是阳线
15:55 - 15:58
EN: It’s a failed bear breakout; buy above that.
ZH: 可能是失败的跌破，所以在它的上方买入
15:58 - 15:59
EN: Strong bull close, you can buy that close.
ZH: 大阳线，可以在它的收盘买入
15:59 - 16:01
EN: You can buy below this bear bar.
ZH: 可以在这根阴线下方挂单买入
16:01 - 16:04
EN: We have a High 1 buy with a good bull bar.
ZH: 这里是高1，信号K是很不错的阳线，可以买入
16:03 - 16:04
EN: You buy that.
ZH: 这里是高1，信号K是很不错的阳线，可以买入
16:04 - 16:05
EN: We have a High 1 buy here.
ZH: 这里也是高1买入点
16:06 - 16:11
EN: You can see every bar or two or three, there’s a good reason to enter a trade.
ZH: 可以看到，每两三根K线，就有好的入场理由
16:11 - 16:13
EN: And in a bear trend, it’s the opposite.
ZH: 下降趋势中也是一样
16:13 - 16:15
EN: You can sell all day long.
ZH: 随时都有做空的机会
16:15 - 16:18
EN: The lower down that you’re selling, the risk is greater,
ZH: 入场越晚，止损越大
16:18 - 16:21
EN: but the probability of making a profit is high.
ZH: 但赚钱的概率越高
16:21 - 16:25
EN: The later you’re taking the buys here, the stop gets further away.
ZH: 在这里，越晚买入，止损就越远
16:25 - 16:28
EN: Your risk is greater, but your probability is very high.
ZH: 风险更大，但胜率非常高
16:33 - 16:37
EN: Sometimes you can have a great setup and you lose money.
ZH: 有时候你以为找到了一个绝佳的机会，最终却亏了钱
Slide 007
Time: 16:35
Bilingual Transcript
16:38 - 16:40
EN: That’s because there is no perfect trade.
ZH: 因为不存在完美的机会
16:44 - 16:46
EN: We have a bear trend, pretty good breakout.
ZH: 下降趋势，强势突破了趋势线
16:46 - 16:48
EN: We have several good bull bars.
ZH: 有几根不错的阳线
16:48 - 16:49
EN: Here, it’s basically a Trading Range.
ZH: 这里几乎是一个震荡区间
16:49 - 16:51
EN: Very weak selloff.
ZH: 刚跌破就反弹了
16:51 - 16:55
EN: And now we’re getting a Double Bottom Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 现在形成了一个双底，低点抬高的大反转机会
16:56 - 16:57
EN: We had two legs up.
ZH: （之前的小反转足够强势）有两段上涨
16:57 - 17:02
EN: We have a gap bar, a bar with a gap
ZH: 有均线缺口K线——它的低点和均线之间有缺口
17:00 - 17:02
EN: between the low of the bar and the Moving Average.
ZH: 有均线缺口K线——它的低点和均线之间有缺口
17:02 - 17:04
EN: That’s a sign that the bulls are strong.
ZH: 这是多头变得强势的信号
17:04 - 17:07
EN: They were strong enough to put a bar completely above the Moving Average.
ZH: 他们变得足够强势，能够把一根K线完全放在均线上方
17:07 - 17:10
EN: And we have a decent buy signal bar here and here.
ZH: 然后，这里和这里有不错的做多信号K线
17:11 - 17:15
EN: This is a good-looking Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 这个低点抬高的大反转结构看上去很漂亮
17:15 - 17:21
EN: Your stop choice is either below the Double Bottom
ZH: 止损可以放在双底的下方，或者放在最低点下方
17:18 - 17:21
EN: or below the bottom of the bull breakout.
ZH: 止损可以放在双底的下方，或者放在最低点下方
17:26 - 17:31
EN: Good Buying Pressure here, strong bull reversal here, decent follow-through.
ZH: 这里有良好的买压，强势的反转上涨，有好的跟随
17:31 - 17:35
EN: Another bull bar here closing above the highs of the past 10 bars.
ZH: 又是一根大阳线，收盘高于过去10几根K线的最高点
17:35 - 17:39
EN: More bull bars here.
ZH: 这里也有阳线，都收在最高
17:37 - 17:39
EN: The bull bars are closing on their highs.
ZH: 这里也有阳线，都收在最高
17:42 - 17:44
EN: Moving Average Gap bar.
ZH: 均线缺口K线
17:44 - 17:48
EN: Usually leads to the final bear leg before an attempt at a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 如果再次下跌（到前期低点附近），通常会有大反转的尝试
17:54 - 17:55
EN: A second entry buy.
ZH: 第2做多入场的
17:55 - 17:59
EN: This is strong enough down so most traders will want a second entry buy,
ZH: 这几根大阴线足够强势，所以多头想要等待第2次入场的信号
17:59 - 18:02
EN: and they have it here, with a decent buy signal bar as well.
ZH: 就是在这里，而且做多信号K线非常不错
18:05 - 18:07
EN: But you get this.
ZH: 但发生了这样的情况
18:07 - 18:10
EN: You get stopped out with a loss, and that’s going to happen
ZH: 止损被打、亏损离场，这其实很正常
18:10 - 18:17
EN: because a Major Trend Reversal Bottom usually has about a 40% chance
ZH: 因为底部大反转通常只有40%的概率可以赚到上涨波段
18:16 - 18:22
EN: of a swing up and a 60% chance of a small loss or a small win.
ZH: 因为底部大反转通常只有40%的概率可以赚到上涨波段 而60%的时间里都是小赚、小亏
18:22 - 18:24
EN: This is an example of a small loss.
ZH: 这是一个小亏的案例
18:24 - 18:31
EN: A lot of the bulls might get out below this bar, a Double Top bear flag
ZH: 很多多头会在这根K线下方提前离场—— 均线下方的双顶熊旗，有阴线收在最低
18:29 - 18:31
EN: at the Moving Average with a bear bar closing on its low.
ZH: 很多多头会在这根K线下方提前离场—— 均线下方的双顶熊旗，有阴线收在最低
18:31 - 18:37
EN: Some will get out below this Double Bottom, so it’s a small loss,
ZH: 一些人会把止损放在这个双底的下方， 或者放在这个低点下方，所以是小亏
18:34 - 18:37
EN: or below the bottom of the bull reversal (small loss).
ZH: 一些人会把止损放在这个双底的下方， 或者放在这个低点下方，所以是小亏
18:38 - 18:41
EN: And what did it lead to? A second attempt at a bottom.
ZH: 后面发生了什么？市场第2次尝试筑底
18:41 - 18:44
EN: The bulls had a reasonable bottom here.
ZH: 之前多头有一个合理的底部结构
18:45 - 18:48
EN: The bears got resumption down, but now we’re getting a second attempt
ZH: 向下跌破之后，再次尝试形成底部
18:48 - 18:53
EN: at a bottom, and a lot of bulls will buy above here or above here,
ZH: 很多多头会在它的上方，或者它的上方买入
18:53 - 18:56
EN: taking a chance that the second reversal will be successful.
ZH: 押注第2次反转的尝试会成功
18:56 - 18:59
EN: This is an attempt at a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal,
ZH: 之前是低点抬高的大反转尝试，
18:59 - 19:02
EN: and now this is a Lower Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 现在是低点降低的大反转
19:07 - 19:10
EN: You get stopped out and a small loss.
ZH: 多头的止损被打掉，小亏
19:10 - 19:14
EN: Relative to the potential gain, the loss is small.
ZH: 相对于潜在的利润而言，亏损时很小的
19:14 - 19:17
EN: That happens 60% of the time.
ZH: 60%的时间里都是这样的小亏、小赚
19:17 - 19:19
EN: You either get stopped out for a small loss,
ZH: 要么小止损被打掉，
19:19 - 19:22
EN: or you make a small profit, and then you give up on the trade.
ZH: 或者只是小反转，赚一点点钱就离场了
19:22 - 19:24
EN: The trade just does not go up.
ZH: 放弃了大反转的念头
19:29 - 19:33
EN: What took place here? Well, we have a Double Bottom and you have a breakout.
ZH: 这里发生了什么？尝试形成双底，但是向下跌破
Slide 008
Time: 19:30
Bilingual Transcript
19:33 - 19:37
EN: Whenever you have a breakout below a stop – either here or here
ZH: 每当一个明显的止损被突破——不管是在这里，还是这里
19:37 - 19:40
EN: - 50% chance you’re going to get a Measured Move down,
ZH: 50%的概率会继续下跌到MM目标位
19:40 - 19:43
EN: 50% chance you’re going to get a reversal up.
ZH: 50%的概率会反转上涨
19:45 - 19:49
EN: Whenever you have a Double Bottom and a breakout,
ZH: 当双底被跌破，就是潜在的楔形底反转结构
19:47 - 19:49
EN: you have a potential Wedge reversal.
ZH: 当双底被跌破，就是潜在的楔形底反转结构
19:49 - 19:52
EN: The Double Bottom has one push up, two pushes up.
ZH: 因为双底已经有了1，2
19:52 - 19:56
EN: The bear breakout, if it reverses, then we have three pushes up.
ZH: 向下跌破，如果开始上涨，就是第3次反转了
19:56 - 19:59
EN: Even though it’s not Wedge shaped, it functions like a Wedge.
ZH: 尽管它并没有楔形的形状，但它的功能和楔形底是一样的
19:59 - 20:00
EN: It’s a Wedge variant.
ZH: 是楔形的一种变体
20:01 - 20:05
EN: A breakout below a Double Bottom that reverses up is a type of a Wedge,
ZH: 跌破双底失败、反转上涨，也是楔形底的一种
20:05 - 20:09
EN: and therefore it can lead to a significant reversal.
ZH: 所以它有可能会导致大反转
20:13 - 20:15
EN: Look what happened here.
ZH: 看看这里发生了什么
20:15 - 20:19
EN: The bulls are trying to reverse up from above yesterday’s low, and they failed.
ZH: 多头尝试在昨天低点的上方开始反转上涨，但失败了
20:19 - 20:22
EN: We broke below yesterday’s low, and what happened?
ZH: 然后跌破了昨天的低点，结果呢？
20:22 - 20:24
EN: We reversed up at yesterday’s low.
ZH: 立刻反转上涨
20:25 - 20:27
EN: This was a test of yesterday’s low.
ZH: 这是对昨天低点的测试
20:27 - 20:30
EN: The bulls tried to get a Higher Low; they failed.
ZH: 多头尝试让低点抬高，失败了
20:30 - 20:34
EN: However, the bears failed to get much of a breakout below yesterday’s low,
ZH: 然而，空头也没有能够真的跌破昨天的低点
20:34 - 20:37
EN: and therefore traders will look for another reversal up.
ZH: 所以交易者预期会再次反转上涨
20:37 - 20:39
EN: This would be a second entry buy.
ZH: 第2做多入场的在这里
20:44 - 20:49
EN: You can draw a bear channel using the bear trend line and creating a parallel,
ZH: 可以把下降通道画出来——先画上方的趋势线， 然后把它的平行线移动到下沿
20:49 - 20:51
EN: and we’re also at the bottom of that bear channel.
ZH: 所以这里也是通道的下沿
20:56 - 21:00
EN: As I said, whenever the market runs a stop, any time your stop is hit,
ZH: 正如刚才所说，每当一个明显的止损被打掉，
21:00 - 21:05
EN: 50% chance it’s going to reverse up again, and therefore you have to be ready
ZH: 50%的概率它会再次反转上涨，
21:05 - 21:07
EN: to buy again for a second reversal up.
ZH: 因此你必须做好再次买入做多的准备
21:11 - 21:13
EN: You can take the first reversal up.
ZH: 你可以在第1入场点买入 （注：即高1，第1次突破前1根K线的高点）
21:13 - 21:15
EN: Here we have a second entry buy.
ZH: 这里是第2做多入场点
21:15 - 21:17
EN: This is a higher probability buy.
ZH: 胜率会更高一些
21:22 - 21:26
EN: Whenever you take a trade, you have to have a plan to take profits.
ZH: 任何一笔交易，都需要有止盈的计划
Slide 009
Time: 21:25
Bilingual Transcript
21:26 - 21:30
EN: Otherwise there’s too much risk that your profits will eventually disappear.
ZH: 否则利润回撤的风险就非常大
Slide 010
Time: 21:32
Bilingual Transcript
21:34 - 21:39
EN: Let’s say you took the buy either above this bar
ZH: 假设你在这根K线，或者在那根K线的上方买入， 预期会有上涨波段
21:37 - 21:39
EN: or above that bar, looking for a swing up.
ZH: 假设你在这根K线，或者在那根K线的上方买入， 预期会有上涨波段
21:47 - 21:51
EN: The minimum target is always at least two times your Actual Risk,
ZH: 最低目标是两倍实际风险
21:51 - 22:01
EN: and therefore it’s always acceptable to take partial profits,
ZH: 在两倍实际风险的地方止盈部分仓位——比如一半，或四分之一， 甚至止盈全部仓位，都是可以接受的做法
21:55 - 22:01
EN: like one-quarter or half of your profits, or even all of your profits,
ZH: 在两倍实际风险的地方止盈部分仓位——比如一半，或四分之一， 甚至止盈全部仓位，都是可以接受的做法
21:59 - 22:01
EN: whenever the market reaches two times Actual Risk.
ZH: 在两倍实际风险的地方止盈部分仓位——比如一半，或四分之一， 甚至止盈全部仓位，都是可以接受的做法
22:01 - 22:05
EN: Initial Risk is always at least as big as Actual Risk,
ZH: 初始风险永远是大于等于实际风险的
22:05 - 22:10
EN: and therefore it’s always acceptable to take profits at two times Initial Risk.
ZH: 所以在两倍初始风险的地方止盈，肯定也可以接受（更好）
22:10 - 22:18
EN: However, if the market looks like there’s a reasonable expectation
ZH: 然而，如果在合理的预期下， 潜在利润远远大于两倍实际风险或初始风险
22:15 - 22:18
EN: that it’s going to go much further than two times actual
ZH: 然而，如果在合理的预期下， 潜在利润远远大于两倍实际风险或初始风险
22:18 - 22:21
EN: or Initial Risk, you should hold onto your position.
ZH: 那么你应该继续持有
22:23 - 22:26
EN: A minimum profit is rarely ever the best profit.
ZH: 追求最低利润往往不是最好的选择
22:26 - 22:31
EN: Minimum simply means that if you take that trade 100 times and manage it,
ZH: 最低目标的意思是，如果你这样做100笔交易，
22:31 - 22:35
EN: taking profits at two times Actual Risk, you will make money,
ZH: 都在两倍实际风险止盈，你可以赚钱
22:35 - 22:37
EN: or you have a very high probability of making money.
ZH: 或者说总体赚钱的概率很高
22:38 - 22:40
EN: However, you will not make much money.
ZH: 但你的利润会很有限
22:45 - 22:48
EN: For example, let’s say you bought above the high of this bar
ZH: 例如，假设你在这根K线的高点上方买入
22:48 - 22:53
EN: and you see it dipped below, but did not hit the stop, and then it went up here.
ZH: 市场先是略微下跌，但没有打到你的止损，然后开始上涨
22:53 - 22:56
EN: Then your Actual Risk is to just below the low of this bar.
ZH: 所以你的实际风险就是到这根K线的低点而已
22:56 - 22:59
EN: So here’s your Actual Risk, the height of this pink box,
ZH: 这个粉色框框的高度，就是实际风险的大小
22:59 - 23:03
EN: and then this is one times, this is two times Actual Risk.
ZH: 然后这里是一倍实际风险，这里是两倍实际风险
23:03 - 23:07
EN: Mathematically it’s okay to take your entire profit right here.
ZH: 从数学上讲，在这里全部止盈是可以的
23:07 - 23:12
EN: However, if you look at this and say, “Well, I don’t know.
ZH: 但是，你看到之前多头尝试在这里制造大反转
23:10 - 23:12
EN: The bulls tried to get a Major Trend Reversal here
ZH: 但是，你看到之前多头尝试在这里制造大反转
23:12 - 23:15
EN: and now they’re trying to get a Major Trend Reversal again.
ZH: 现在再次进行尝试
23:15 - 23:20
EN: I’m going to hold onto part of my trade because this could be a major reversal
ZH: 所以也许可以继续持有一部分仓位， 因为它有可能会发展成大反转
23:20 - 23:23
EN: and not simply a minor reversal and a Trading Range”
ZH: 而不仅仅只是小反转或震荡区间
23:25 - 23:27
EN: - here’s two times Initial Risk.
ZH: 这里是两倍初始风险
23:27 - 23:29
EN: You bought above the high of this bar, let’s say.
ZH: 假设你在这根K线的高点上方买入
23:29 - 23:34
EN: Your Initial Risk is to where your stop is,
ZH: 初始风险，也就是初始止损的位置， 在那根K线的下方
23:32 - 23:34
EN: which is just below the low of that bar.
ZH: 初始风险，也就是初始止损的位置， 在那根K线的下方
23:34 - 23:37
EN: One times Initial Risk, two times Initial Risk.
ZH: 一倍初始风险，两倍初始风险
23:37 - 23:38
EN: You could take profits here.
ZH: 你可以在这里止盈
23:38 - 23:42
EN: However, would you? If you did, you’d say, wait a minute.
ZH: 然而，你真的会在这里止盈吗？
23:42 - 23:44
EN: This is a strong breakout with strong follow-through.
ZH: 这是非常强势的突破，而且有很好的跟随
23:44 - 23:46
EN: This is a Buy The Close bull trend.
ZH: 已经进入了“买收盘”的上涨趋势
23:46 - 23:49
EN: We’re going higher, maybe based upon a Measured Move from the open
ZH: 还会继续上涨，比如，从突破第1根K线的开盘价，
23:49 - 23:53
EN: of the first bar of the breakout to the close of the final bar of the breakout.
ZH: 到突破最后1根K线的收盘价，往上翻一倍
23:53 - 23:54
EN: That takes us up here.
ZH: MM目标位在这里
23:54 - 23:59
EN: So yes, you can take profits here, but we’re probably going higher,
ZH: 尽管你确实可以在这里止盈，但大概率还会继续上涨
23:59 - 24:03
EN: and therefore had you taken profits, you can look to buy again.
ZH: 所以就算你止盈了，也要找机会再次入场
24:03 - 24:06
EN: Buy this close, buy that close, buy above this bear bar,
ZH: 买它的收盘，买它的收盘，在它的上方买入
24:06 - 24:09
EN: buy above this bull bar, buy above this bull bar.
ZH: 在它的上方买入，在它的上方买入
24:14 - 24:16
EN: Again, bear trend, bull breakout,
ZH: 再讲一遍：下降趋势，多头突破
Slide 011
Time: 24:15
Bilingual Transcript
24:16 - 24:19
EN: tried to get a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 尝试形成低点抬高的大反转
24:19 - 24:20
EN: It failed.
ZH: 失败了
24:20 - 24:22
EN: Now we get a Lower Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 现在得到了低点降低的大反转结构
24:22 - 24:25
EN: You can also call this a Triangle and a Final Flag,
ZH: 你也可以把它看作是三角形，末端旗形
24:25 - 24:28
EN: or simply a reversal up from below yesterday’s low.
ZH: 或者就是测试昨天的低点，然后反转上涨（大的双底）
24:28 - 24:35
EN: The market often sells off down to yesterday’s low and then reverses,
ZH: 这是开盘的常见模式——跌到昨天的低点附近，然后开始反转上涨
24:32 - 24:35
EN: either from above yesterday’s or from below yesterday’s low
ZH: 这是开盘的常见模式——跌到昨天的低点附近，然后开始反转上涨
24:35 - 24:38
EN: - especially when there’s a lot of Trading Range price action.
ZH: ——尤其是有很多震荡区间的价格行为时 （注：震荡的行为，说明多空力量开始变得平衡）
24:38 - 24:42
EN: Here’s 30 bars in a fairly tight range with multiple reversals;
ZH: 这里有30多根K线在震荡区间里面，多次来回反转
24:42 - 24:45
EN: this is probably a bear leg in what will become a Trading Range,
ZH: 这大概率只是震荡区间内的一段下跌
24:45 - 24:48
EN: which means you have to be expecting a bull leg,
ZH: 也就是说，可以预期接下来是上涨的波段
24:48 - 24:51
EN: and therefore you have to be looking for a reversal.
ZH: 所以可以找机会做反转
24:55 - 24:58
EN: When you get a strong breakout like this, you really need to be holding
ZH: 如果看到这么强势的突破，一定要坚定持有至少一部分仓位
24:58 - 25:02
EN: at least part of your position for some kind of a Measured Move up.
ZH: 至少持有到某个MM目标位
25:03 - 25:07
EN: If you do exit part or all, you should be looking to buy again.
ZH: 如果离场了，也应该找机会重新入场
25:15 - 25:19
EN: Again, a strong breakout like that often leads to a Measured Move up
ZH: 这么的强势突破，经常会继续涨到MM目标位
25:19 - 25:24
EN: based upon the open of the first bar to the close
ZH: 从第1根K线的开盘价，到最后1根K线的收盘价， 往上翻一倍，就在这里
25:21 - 25:24
EN: of the final bar, which is right there.
ZH: 从第1根K线的开盘价，到最后1根K线的收盘价， 往上翻一倍，就在这里
25:24 - 25:27
EN: And you can see when we got to that area, traders took profits.
ZH: 可以看到，涨到这个区域时，有多头在止盈
25:29 - 25:38
EN: A strong breakout like this has a 60% chance of at least some kind
ZH: 这么强势的突破60%的概率至少会涨到某个MM目标位， 比如基于双顶的高度——
25:34 - 25:38
EN: of a Measured Move up, maybe based upon a Double Top.
ZH: 这么强势的突破60%的概率至少会涨到某个MM目标位， 比如基于双顶的高度——
25:38 - 25:40
EN: We have a Double Top here, neckline here.
ZH: 这里有一个双顶，这是颈线
25:40 - 25:43
EN: Instead of getting the bear breakout, we got the bull breakout.
ZH: 双顶没有反转下跌，而是向上突破
25:44 - 25:49
EN: Therefore, traders will look for a Measured Move up
ZH: 所以多头的MM目标位就是把这个双顶的高度往上翻一倍
25:46 - 25:49
EN: based upon a Measured Move from this Double Top.
ZH: 所以多头的MM目标位就是把这个双顶的高度往上翻一倍
25:49 - 25:51
EN: Maybe based upon the height of this Sell Climax.
ZH: 或者把这个抛售高潮的高度万一被
25:58 - 26:02
EN: Very strong bull bar about 20 bars into the bull trend.
ZH: 非常大的大阳线，此时上涨已经持续了20多根K线
26:02 - 26:05
EN: The biggest bull bar occurring in the bull trend,
ZH: 它是整个上涨趋势中最大的大阳线
26:05 - 26:07
EN: yet we did not break above the high of the day.
ZH: 此时仍然低于当天前期的高点
26:08 - 26:11
EN: Whenever you get a very strong bull bar late in a bull trend,
ZH: 每当你在上涨趋势的后期看到非常强势的大阳线
26:11 - 26:15
EN: it’s more likely going to lead to an Exhaustion Gap than to a Measured Move up.
ZH: 它更有可能是竭尽型缺口，而不是继续上涨到新的MM目标位
26:16 - 26:20
EN: It’s possible that we’ll get a pullback here and a resumption up,
ZH: 确实有可能，回调之后恢复上涨，
26:20 - 26:21
EN: and this will be a Measuring Gap.
ZH: 那么它就是测量型缺口
26:21 - 26:29
EN: More likely, the gap between this low and this high and then this low
ZH: 但更有可能的是，这个低点和这个高点之间的缺口 然后是这个低点和这个高点之间的缺口，是竭尽型缺口，会被回补
26:25 - 26:29
EN: and this high will be an Exhaustion Gap, and the gap will close.
ZH: 然后是这个低点和这个高点之间的缺口，是竭尽型缺口，会被回补
26:29 - 26:34
EN: We’ll trade below this high, and we’ll probably trade down
ZH: 价格会回调到这个高点的下方，甚至会一直跌到抢购高潮的起涨点
26:32 - 26:34
EN: to the bottom of the Buy Climax.
ZH: 价格会回调到这个高点的下方，甚至会一直跌到抢购高潮的起涨点
26:34 - 26:37
EN: At that point, the market will either form a Double Bottom with this low
ZH: 然后，市场要么形成一个双底，然后恢复上涨，
26:37 - 26:42
EN: and resume up, or maybe break to the down side and fall for a Measured Move
ZH: 或者向下跌破，一直跌到MM目标位——
26:42 - 26:45
EN: based upon the height of that Buy Climax – which it did here.
ZH: 把抢购高潮的高度往下翻一倍——就像这里所发生的
Slide 012
Time: 26:47
Bilingual Transcript
26:55 - 26:56
EN: There’s no perfect way to take profits,
ZH: 不存在完美的止盈方法
26:56 - 26:59
EN: and you should never worry about being perfect.
ZH: 所以你不用纠结是否做得完美
26:59 - 27:02
EN: You should only worry about being good.
ZH: 只需要做得足够好就可以了
27:02 - 27:11
EN: Always be aware of what the minimum target is that you need
ZH: 一定要知道让策略能够盈利的最低目标是什么， 但同时，最低目标往往不是最好的选择
27:06 - 27:11
EN: to have a profitable strategy, but the minimum is rarely ever the best.
ZH: 一定要知道让策略能够盈利的最低目标是什么， 但同时，最低目标往往不是最好的选择
27:11 - 27:15
EN: You usually can make more money by going for more than the minimum,
ZH: 很多时候有比最低目标更好的选择，可以让你赚更多钱
27:16 - 27:20
EN: in which case look for other types of resistance, like prior highs
ZH: 在这种情况下，你需要寻找其它类型的目标位（即阻力）， 比如前期的高点
27:20 - 27:23
EN: - you can see there’s some profit-taking here
ZH: ——可以看到在这里有人止盈
27:23 - 27:25
EN: - and also Measured Move projections.
ZH: ——还有MM目标位
27:32 - 27:34
EN: For example, Leg 1, Leg 2.
ZH: 比如第1段 = 第2段
27:34 - 27:36
EN: Leg 1, pullback, Leg 2.
ZH: 第1段，回调，第2段
27:36 - 27:40
EN: You can do a Measured Move based upon the height of the bodies of this breakout.
ZH: 可以把突破的高度翻一倍作为MM目标位
27:41 - 27:43
EN: You can do a Measured Move based upon the height of a pullback.
ZH: 可以把回调的幅度往上翻一倍
27:43 - 27:47
EN: We have a pullback, and a Measured Move up takes us around here.
ZH: 这一段是回调，MM目标位在这里
27:47 - 27:55
EN: And then also, as I said, you can always take profits
ZH: 另外，就像之前反复强调的那样， 总是可以根据初始风险或实际风险来决定目标位
27:51 - 27:55
EN: at a Measured Move based upon initial or Actual Risk.
ZH: 另外，就像之前反复强调的那样， 总是可以根据初始风险或实际风险来决定目标位
28:00 - 28:04
EN: Here we have a Parabolic Wedge, a very tight Wedge,
ZH: 这里是一个抛物线楔形，通道非常窄
28:04 - 28:07
EN: and the bears tried to get a reversal, but a terrible entry bar,
ZH: 空头尝试反转下跌，但入场K线非常糟糕 （注：信号K很好，但突破卖单成交之后，入场K线变成了阳线）
28:07 - 28:11
EN: and therefore it’s probably a failed reversal and we’re probably going higher.
ZH: 所以这很可能是一次失败的反转尝试，大概率还要上涨
28:13 - 28:18
EN: And what do we have here? A strong vacuum test up to today’s high.
ZH: 这里呢？真空测试，急速上涨到今天的高点附近
28:18 - 28:20
EN: It may also be a test of yesterday’s high.
ZH: 甚至昨天的高点可能也在这里附近
28:20 - 28:25
EN: I don’t see yesterday right here, but this could be a Trading Range day.
ZH: 这里看不到昨天完整的行情； 今天很可能是一个震荡区间日
28:25 - 28:28
EN: Remember, this looks like a bear leg in a Trading Range; therefore,
ZH: 这段下跌看起来只是震荡区间中的一个下跌波段
28:28 - 28:31
EN: it should be followed by a bull leg in what will become a Trading Range.
ZH: 那么它的后面就应该是上涨波段，仍然处于震荡区间中
28:31 - 28:34
EN: We have big down, big up, a reversal.
ZH: 大跌，大涨的反转
28:34 - 28:36
EN: Usually leads to a Trading Range.
ZH: 通常是震荡区间的特征
28:36 - 28:43
EN: And now we have an exceptionally strong bull breakout
ZH: 现在，在趋势的后期，出现了异常大的大阳线 ——更有可能是竭尽型缺口
28:39 - 28:43
EN: late in a bull trend – more likely an Exhaustion Gap.
ZH: 现在，在趋势的后期，出现了异常大的大阳线 ——更有可能是竭尽型缺口
28:45 - 28:47
EN: We’re trying to break above the top of a Wedge,
ZH: 尝试加速突破上涨通道
28:47 - 28:51
EN: and the bulls want a Measured Move up based upon the height of the Wedge.
ZH: 多头想要继续上涨到MM目标位——把楔形通道的高度往上翻一倍
28:51 - 28:52
EN: They want us to get up here.
ZH: 他们想要涨到这里
28:52 - 28:56
EN: However, the biggest breakout late in a bull trend,
ZH: 然而，上涨趋势后期最大的大阳线
28:56 - 29:00
EN: more likely you’re going to get a failed breakout.
ZH: 更有可能是一次失败的突破（注：即抢购高潮的意思）
29:00 - 29:04
EN: You have good follow-through here, but the second bar is bad follow-through.
ZH: 它是良好的跟随，但接下来是阴线收在低位 （注：而且好像是吞噬线，高点一样，低点更低）
29:04 - 29:07
EN: Sometimes you get the bad follow-through bar on the second bar.
ZH: 所以大阳线之后的第2根K线是比较糟糕的跟随
29:14 - 29:17
EN: This is a reasonable location to take profits
ZH: 多头在这里止盈是合理的
29:17 - 29:22
EN: because this is a probable Buy Climax, a test of the high of the day,
ZH: 因为它很可能是抢购高潮，是对当天高点的真空测试
29:22 - 29:25
EN: and we’re probably going to come down and test the bottom of the Buy Climax.
ZH: 很可能会一直回调到抢购高潮的起涨点
29:25 - 29:27
EN: And it’s three pushes up – one, two, three.
ZH: 而且这里是3次向上的推动——1，2，3
29:28 - 29:30
EN: Yes, it’s a breakout above a Wedge.
ZH: 尝试向上加速突破楔形顶
29:30 - 29:31
EN: Maybe we’ll get two legs up.
ZH: （这么强势的大阳线）也许会有第2段上涨
29:31 - 29:33
EN: Well, we did get two legs up.
ZH: 这里确实有小的第2段——
29:33 - 29:37
EN: We went up here and then down here, and then up here and then down again.
ZH: 上涨，然后有小的回调（上影线）； 第2段上涨，然后再次反转下跌
29:37 - 29:41
EN: This is a Micro Double Top, and that might be all the bulls get.
ZH: 这是一个小双顶，可能第2段就只有这么一点点
29:41 - 29:46
EN: Once you have that bear bar closing below its midpoint,
ZH: 一旦有阴线收在一半一下，收在低位， 多头就可以止盈保护利润
29:43 - 29:46
EN: near its low, it’s a good place to take profits
ZH: 一旦有阴线收在一半一下，收在低位， 多头就可以止盈保护利润
29:46 - 29:50
EN: because at that point we’re probably going down here.
ZH: 因为接下来大概率会回调到这里
Slide 013
Time: 29:55
Bilingual Transcript
29:56 - 30:00
EN: Most reversals end up forming large Trading Ranges,
ZH: 大部分的反转会变成震荡区间
30:00 - 30:04
EN: and most Major Trend Reversals usually result in a large Trading Range.
ZH: 大部分的大反转，会变成大的震荡区间
30:04 - 30:10
EN: A Major Trend Reversal is a reversal,
ZH: 因为在大反转之后，肯定是大涨、大跌的情况
30:07 - 30:10
EN: and therefore you have a big down and big up,
ZH: 因为在大反转之后，肯定是大涨、大跌的情况
30:11 - 30:14
EN: and big up after big down creates big confusion,
ZH: 而大涨、大跌会造成困惑
30:14 - 30:19
EN: and usually a major reversal ends up going sideways.
ZH: 所以大反转最终会进入横盘
30:19 - 30:22
EN: It still goes up far enough for a swing profit,
ZH: 交易者可以（在大反转中）赚到足够大的波段利润
30:22 - 30:27
EN: but most reversals end up transitioning into Trading Ranges at some point.
ZH: 但最终它会在某个时刻过渡到震荡区间
30:32 - 30:35
EN: Bull trends often end with some kind of a climax,
ZH: 上涨趋势通常以抢购高潮的方式结束
30:40 - 30:42
EN: and swing traders have to be aware of all this.
ZH: 波段交易者必须意识到这一点
30:42 - 30:45
EN: We have three pushes up – one, two, three.
ZH: 3次向上的推动——1，2，3
30:45 - 30:48
EN: You can call it a failed breakout above a Wedge Top,
ZH: 可以把它看作失败的突破
30:48 - 30:50
EN: a buy vacuum test of the high of the day,
ZH: 可以看作对当天高点的真空测试
30:50 - 30:53
EN: and high probability of a Trading Range day.
ZH: 因为大概率这是一个震荡区间日
30:54 - 30:58
EN: We’re at different Measured Move projections, certainly based upon this.
ZH: 而且也是MM目标位，比如以这一段突破为依据
30:58 - 31:01
EN: We’re testing the high of the day and now we’re reversing down.
ZH: 测试了当天的高点之后，开始反转下跌
31:01 - 31:06
EN: You have to have reasons to take profits, because otherwise they will disappear.
ZH: 多头必须找机会止盈、保护利润，否则利润就会消失
31:12 - 31:18
EN: Could you buy this close and hold until the end of the day? You cannot do that.
ZH: 可以在这里买入，然后一直持有到当天收盘吗？ 不能这样做
31:18 - 31:21
EN: You have to have a sensible plan to take profits
ZH: 你必须要有一个合理的止盈计划
31:21 - 31:24
EN: because they eventually always disappear.
ZH: 否则，利润最终总是会消失（或大幅回撤）
Slide 014
Time: 31:29
Bilingual Transcript
31:29 - 31:37
EN: I began by talking about a minor reversal, which means a reversal
ZH: 这节课我先是讲了小反转，它无法让市场进入相反的趋势
31:33 - 31:37
EN: that usually does not result in an opposite trend.
ZH: 这节课我先是讲了小反转，它无法让市场进入相反的趋势
31:37 - 31:42
EN: It usually results in a pause in the current trend,
ZH: 小反转只不过是一次暂停，然后趋势会继续
31:40 - 31:42
EN: leading to a resumption of that trend.
ZH: 小反转只不过是一次暂停，然后趋势会继续
31:43 - 31:46
EN: I also made the point that there are no best setups,
ZH: 我也讲了为什么不存在完美的机会
31:46 - 31:49
EN: and that there are reasons to enter every few bars.
ZH: 但每隔几根K线，都存在足够好的机会
31:49 - 31:53
EN: Every trade has a tradeoff between probability and risk/reward,
ZH: 每一笔交易都需要在概率和盈亏比之间做出权衡
31:54 - 31:57
EN: and there are plenty of trading opportunities all day long.
ZH: 一天下来，其实到处都是交易机会
31:58 - 32:01
EN: Finally, I talked about the importance of having profit targets.
ZH: 最后，我讲到了设置止盈目标的重要性
32:01 - 32:06
EN: You have to have a plan to take profits, because eventually they will disappear.
ZH: 你必须有一个止盈的计划，否则利润最终会消失殆尽
32:10 - 32:11
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
32:11 - 32:13
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
32:13 - 32:17
EN: This is the second of four videos on trading Major Trend Reversal Bottoms.
ZH: 底部大反转的第2节课，就先讲到这里