al-brooks-course
49B - Swing Trading Examples
Raw transcript and slide notes for 49B - Swing Trading Examples.
Overview
- Slides: 23
- Transcript segments: 557
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
00:05 - 00:09
EN: This is the second of six videos on swing trading examples.
Slide 001
Time: 00:12
Bilingual Transcript
00:13 - 00:16
EN: In this video I’m going to give a series of examples
00:16 - 00:18
EN: on how to swing trade for day traders.
Slide 002
Time: 00:20
Bilingual Transcript
00:23 - 00:25
EN: This line is the open of the day.
00:28 - 00:31
EN: I always look to the left, and you can see yesterday the market
00:31 - 00:34
EN: was in a Tight Trading Range here and again here.
00:34 - 00:38
EN: That tells me that today probably will have a lot of Trading Range price action.
00:38 - 00:40
EN: We have a reversal up, reversal down.
00:40 - 00:47
EN: Reversal up, down, up, and today is beginning in a way that is similar to that.
00:48 - 00:50
EN: Markets have inertia.
00:50 - 00:52
EN: They tend to continue what they’re doing,
00:52 - 00:56
EN: and on today’s open we’re continuing all of the reversals
00:56 - 00:58
EN: and Tight Trading Range trading of yesterday.
01:06 - 01:09
EN: We have a selloff on the open, and we have a pair of bear bars,
01:09 - 01:10
EN: but then a bull bar.
01:10 - 01:13
EN: Another pair of bear bars and then 2 more bull bars.
01:13 - 01:15
EN: A bear bar, a big reversal attempt, and it failed.
01:15 - 01:17
EN: It reversed down.
01:17 - 01:21
EN: All the way down, we’re getting bear bars and bull bars.
01:21 - 01:25
EN: We’re getting a lot of overlap – over here and over here.
01:25 - 01:29
EN: There’s an absence of consecutive big bear bars closing on their lows.
01:29 - 01:32
EN: There are no clear, good sell signal bars.
01:32 - 01:33
EN: We have a bull bar; it went down.
01:33 - 01:34
EN: A bull bar, down.
01:34 - 01:36
EN: Bull bar, bull bar, bull bar.
01:36 - 01:38
EN: These are bad looking sell single bars.
01:38 - 01:40
EN: We have a lot of overlap.
01:40 - 01:43
EN: The tails are fairly prominent on all of the bars.
01:43 - 01:47
EN: This looks like it’s probably a bear leg in a Trading Range day,
01:47 - 01:50
EN: and when you get an open like that, the market usually continues down
01:50 - 01:54
EN: for 2 or 3 hours like that and then it goes the opposite direction
01:54 - 01:56
EN: - a bull leg in a Trading Range.
01:56 - 02:00
EN: Because of that, traders look for a swing trade up.
02:04 - 02:07
EN: Most traders should wait when they see the market behaving like this.
02:07 - 02:08
EN: Expert traders will scalp.
02:09 - 02:12
EN: They’ll sell below for a scalp, they’ll buy above for a scalp.
02:13 - 02:15
EN: They’ll sell bull closes near the Moving Average.
02:15 - 02:19
EN: They’ll sell above a bear bar, a weak looking buy setup,
02:19 - 02:20
EN: betting that we’ll go down.
Slide 003
Time: 02:25
Bilingual Transcript
02:25 - 02:29
EN: At some point you conclude that a Trading Range is likely,
02:29 - 02:31
EN: and therefore traders will look for a bull leg
02:31 - 02:33
EN: in the Trading Range – a reversal up.
02:38 - 02:42
EN: Three pushes down – one or one, and then two and three.
02:42 - 02:45
EN: We broke a little bit below the line and we’re reversing up.
02:46 - 02:48
EN: Then we get a bull bar closing on its high
02:48 - 02:52
EN: and another bull bar closing on its high after a Wedge Bottom
02:52 - 02:55
EN: and a probable bear leg in a Trading Range day.
02:55 - 02:57
EN: Bulls are looking to buy a reversal up.
02:57 - 03:01
EN: They can buy early, here or here, stop down here.
03:01 - 03:03
EN: Micro Double Bottom.
03:03 - 03:06
EN: We went down and up, and then down and up.
03:06 - 03:10
EN: Reasonable to buy above the neckline of that Micro Double Bottom and get filled
03:10 - 03:14
EN: above the high of this bar or by the close of the follow-through bar here.
Slide 004
Time: 03:20
Bilingual Transcript
03:20 - 03:24
EN: On this day we have a big gap down, but a reversal up.
03:24 - 03:27
EN: But look what followed this big bull bar.
03:27 - 03:30
EN: It has a tail on top and is followed by a doji bar.
03:30 - 03:33
EN: We have a second bull bar, but a smaller body,
03:33 - 03:36
EN: and again a bad follow-through bar and then 4 bar selloff.
03:36 - 03:38
EN: Reversal up, bear bar.
03:38 - 03:40
EN: Reversal up, selloff.
03:40 - 03:43
EN: This does not look like the start of a bull trend.
03:43 - 03:46
EN: It’s probably a bull leg in what will become a Trading Range
03:46 - 03:50
EN: or it’s probably a rally that will test resistance
03:50 - 03:53
EN: and lead to a swing down (a bear trend day).
03:55 - 03:57
EN: Big reversal up.
04:02 - 04:04
EN: Minimum objective would be a Measured Move
04:04 - 04:06
EN: based upon the height of that bull breakout.
04:06 - 04:09
EN: That would take us here, around the Moving Average.
04:11 - 04:14
EN: The bar after the bull bar is not a bear bar.
04:14 - 04:19
EN: That absence of a bear body is minimum good follow-through for the bulls,
04:19 - 04:22
EN: and it means that we’ll go at least a little bit higher.
04:22 - 04:26
EN: Maybe a Measured Move up, maybe a test of the Moving Average.
04:31 - 04:32
EN: But look at this rally.
04:33 - 04:34
EN: One leg up, a reversal.
04:34 - 04:36
EN: A second leg up, pullback.
04:36 - 04:38
EN: Third leg up.
04:38 - 04:41
EN: This looks like a Wedge rally around the Moving Average,
04:41 - 04:45
EN: and it’s also around a 50% pullback from this high to that low,
04:46 - 04:49
EN: and we have a gap bar – a gap between the low of this bar
04:49 - 04:51
EN: and the Moving Average in a bear trend.
04:51 - 04:55
EN: All reasons to be thinking about a possible reversal down.
04:56 - 04:59
EN: You can also call it a Spike and Channel bull trend.
04:59 - 05:02
EN: Spike, pullback, second push, pullback, third push,
05:02 - 05:06
EN: or first push, pullback, second push, pullback, third push.
05:09 - 05:11
EN: Bears are looking at this as a weak rally.
Slide 005
Time: 05:10
Bilingual Transcript
05:11 - 05:17
EN: Probably a bull leg in a Trading Range day or simply an opening reversal rally
05:17 - 05:20
EN: - a rally on the open that reverses down at resistance,
05:20 - 05:24
EN: a 50% pullback and around the Moving Average.
05:25 - 05:29
EN: The bears are looking to sell expecting either a Trading Range day,
05:29 - 05:33
EN: a sell down to the bottom, or possibly a bear trend day.
05:38 - 05:39
EN: A decent bear bar.
05:39 - 05:43
EN: Wedge – one, two, three – or Wedge – one, two, three.
05:43 - 05:44
EN: 50% pullback.
05:44 - 05:47
EN: Traders will sell below the low of that bar
05:47 - 05:49
EN: and they’ll put a stop right above its high.
05:49 - 05:54
EN: Fairly Tight Channel, a low probability trade, but the risk is small
05:54 - 05:57
EN: and the reward is many, many times greater than the risk.
05:57 - 05:59
EN: So it’s a reasonable short.
06:04 - 06:07
EN: Some traders prefer a higher probability trade
06:07 - 06:09
EN: and they’ll wait for 3 or 4 consecutive bear bars,
06:09 - 06:12
EN: with 1 or 2 of them closing near their lows,
06:12 - 06:14
EN: and then they’ll sell the close of the bear bar.
06:14 - 06:17
EN: Now it’s a higher probability bet that we’ll go
06:17 - 06:21
EN: at least a little bit lower, again, stop above the top of the Wedge.
06:24 - 06:27
EN: At this point we’ve had 9 bars without a pullback.
06:27 - 06:32
EN: 9 bars where the high of every bar is at or below the high of the prior bar.
06:32 - 06:36
EN: Chances are we’re going to go at least a little bit lower
06:36 - 06:40
EN: and therefore bears will sell at the high of the prior bar and get filled here.
06:41 - 06:44
EN: Another reasonably high probability short,
06:44 - 06:47
EN: stop above the top of the bear reversal.
06:50 - 06:54
EN: After this series of bear bars – 6 or 7 consecutive bear bars
06:54 - 06:57
EN: and a Wedge Top stalling at the Moving Average
06:57 - 07:02
EN: - traders will look to sell reversals down from bull reversal attempts,
07:02 - 07:03
EN: especially at the Moving Average.
07:03 - 07:05
EN: The bulls are trying to reverse.
07:05 - 07:06
EN: Bears expect it to fail.
07:06 - 07:08
EN: They’ll sell below the low of the prior bar.
07:08 - 07:12
EN: Bulls trying to reverse up to the Moving Average, a Double Top
07:12 - 07:16
EN: - up, down, up, down – they’ll sell below that bar.
07:16 - 07:19
EN: Another bear breakout, the bulls trying to reverse again.
07:19 - 07:23
EN: The bears will sell another Low 1 bear flag.
07:26 - 07:29
EN: We have a strong breakout here, 3 or 4 consecutive bear bars.
07:29 - 07:33
EN: Bears will start selling closes, betting that the market will go lower.
Slide 006
Time: 07:35
Bilingual Transcript
07:36 - 07:39
EN: Here’s the open of the day, and yesterday there was
07:39 - 07:41
EN: a lot of Trading Range price action.
07:41 - 07:45
EN: Markets have inertia and they tend to continue what they were doing before.
07:45 - 07:50
EN: You always look to the left to get an idea of what the right will look like.
07:56 - 07:59
EN: While the bears have a good breakout bar on the open,
07:59 - 08:00
EN: the bodies are getting smaller.
08:00 - 08:03
EN: 3 consecutive bear bars, and the tails are becoming bigger,
08:03 - 08:05
EN: and now we have a couple more dojis.
08:05 - 08:08
EN: Here we have 5 consecutive dojis after the selloff.
08:08 - 08:12
EN: This looks like a continuation of this kind of a price action,
08:12 - 08:14
EN: and it increases the chances that we’ll get
08:14 - 08:18
EN: a lot of Trading Range price action at least for the next hour or two.
08:18 - 08:22
EN: Here we have Trading Range price action for about 70 bars.
08:28 - 08:32
EN: Early Trading Range price action after Trading Range yesterday.
08:32 - 08:34
EN: Chances are we’ll have at least an hour
08:34 - 08:37
EN: or two of Trading Range price action today.
08:37 - 08:41
EN: That means if we go down, we’ll go up, and if we go up, we’ll go down.
08:45 - 08:47
EN: You can look at this as possibly a Wedge bull flag.
08:47 - 08:50
EN: Reverse up, reverse up, reverse up.
08:50 - 08:52
EN: Possible low of the day.
08:52 - 08:54
EN: Not a high probability buy.
08:54 - 08:56
EN: You can also look at it as a big High 2
08:56 - 09:00
EN: - Leg 1, reversal up, Leg 2, reversal up.
09:00 - 09:02
EN: But we have four dojis.
09:02 - 09:03
EN: Here we have five dojis.
09:04 - 09:06
EN: Not a particularly good buy setup.
09:07 - 09:10
EN: Probably sellers above and we’ll go sideways.
Slide 007
Time: 09:10
Bilingual Transcript
09:16 - 09:19
EN: The market reversed up and started to reverse down with this bar.
09:19 - 09:25
EN: This is a Double Top bear flag just below the Moving Average after a gap down.
09:25 - 09:27
EN: It’s a reasonable sell for a possible high of the day,
09:28 - 09:29
EN: and it became the high of the day.
09:29 - 09:32
EN: However, you had to sit through a lot of sideways bars
09:32 - 09:35
EN: before you got the final swing down.
09:37 - 09:39
EN: If you want you can call it a Triangle.
09:39 - 09:42
EN: Reversal down, reversal down, reversal down,
09:42 - 09:46
EN: and this would be a Triangle sell, again, below the Moving Average.
09:51 - 09:53
EN: There’s a lack of conviction on the part of the bears.
09:53 - 09:57
EN: We have a series of bear bars, but getting smaller bodies.
09:57 - 09:59
EN: A bear bar here, then a bull doji.
09:59 - 10:02
EN: Bear bar here and here, but then a bull reversal.
10:02 - 10:06
EN: This is probably going to be a bear leg in a Trading Range.
10:06 - 10:07
EN: It’s still a possible high of the day,
10:07 - 10:10
EN: and it turned out it was the high of the day.
10:12 - 10:14
EN: Many bears would buy this.
10:14 - 10:16
EN: We have a gap down.
10:16 - 10:18
EN: We reversed up from below yesterday’s low
10:18 - 10:21
EN: - yesterday’s low – and now we have a second reversal up
10:21 - 10:24
EN: from below yesterday’s low with a good buy signal bar.
10:24 - 10:27
EN: That’s a reasonable buy for a possible low of the day.
10:28 - 10:30
EN: A lot of the bears who sold here will get out.
10:30 - 10:35
EN: A lot of the swing bears will hold short, keep their stop above the high
10:35 - 10:38
EN: of this bar or above the high of this bar, and then just wait to see
10:38 - 10:40
EN: if we get trend resumption down later in the day.
10:40 - 10:44
EN: Bulls are buying this looking for a possible low of the day,
10:44 - 10:45
EN: stop below this low.
10:48 - 10:53
EN: The bears now have another low, a failed breakout above the Moving Average.
10:53 - 10:57
EN: They’ll sell again below here, a Double Top at the Moving Average.
10:57 - 10:59
EN: You can call it a Wedge.
10:59 - 11:03
EN: Push up, down, up, pause, up, pause, up.
11:03 - 11:06
EN: Four pushes up, three or four pushes up makes a Wedge.
11:06 - 11:09
EN: A Double Top Lower High at the Moving Average.
11:09 - 11:12
EN: We’re still Always In Short.
11:12 - 11:15
EN: The bulls could hold long as well, betting on the low of the day,
11:15 - 11:18
EN: and you can see they got a Higher Low here
11:18 - 11:21
EN: and it was only over here that the bulls finally gave up.
11:22 - 11:24
EN: The bears have a reasonable short.
11:24 - 11:26
EN: The bulls have a reasonable buy.
11:26 - 11:29
EN: That tells you that the market’s going to go sideways.
11:29 - 11:33
EN: The probability slightly favors the bears because we have a gap down
11:33 - 11:36
EN: and most of the trading is below the Moving Average,
11:36 - 11:39
EN: but it’s reasonable to be long, taking a chance on the low of the day.
11:40 - 11:44
EN: It’s reasonable to be short, taking a chance on the high of the day.
11:44 - 11:46
EN: Most traders would not swing trade.
11:47 - 11:50
EN: They would just sell, get out, or buy and then get out.
11:56 - 12:00
EN: If you are swing trading from the short side – we’re getting Lower Highs;
12:00 - 12:03
EN: we keep failing at the Moving Average – you sell every reversal down
12:03 - 12:06
EN: from the Moving Average, betting that the bull reversals will fail.
12:07 - 12:09
EN: Small Low 2.
12:09 - 12:13
EN: We went up and down, up and sell below that bear bar.
12:13 - 12:15
EN: We have a Low 1, Low 2.
12:15 - 12:17
EN: Sell below that bear bar or below that bull bar,
12:18 - 12:21
EN: and you can call this a Low 1 or a Low 2.
12:21 - 12:23
EN: Up, pause, two.
12:23 - 12:25
EN: Double Top is always a Low 2.
12:26 - 12:30
EN: We’re trying to reverse up here, small Double Top there or Double Top here.
12:30 - 12:31
EN: A bear bar.
12:31 - 12:32
EN: Look to sell.
12:33 - 12:37
EN: None of these is a high probability short, but the math is still okay.
12:39 - 12:41
EN: Everyone wants very clear trading.
12:42 - 12:43
EN: Most days are not clear.
12:44 - 12:49
EN: While this is extremely tight, it gives you an idea that most days
12:49 - 12:54
EN: are not as easy as they appear to be, and you tend to spend a lot of your time
12:54 - 12:57
EN: taking small trades that do not go very far.
13:00 - 13:03
EN: The bears are betting that every reversal up will fail,
13:03 - 13:06
EN: so every time there’s a bull close near the Moving Average,
13:06 - 13:07
EN: they’ll sell the close.
13:07 - 13:10
EN: Here, they’ll sell more here, they’ll sell more here,
13:10 - 13:13
EN: betting against the bull reversal.
13:15 - 13:16
EN: This is the same chart.
Slide 008
Time: 13:15
Bilingual Transcript
13:20 - 13:21
EN: Again, a gap down.
13:21 - 13:23
EN: Consecutive bear bars.
13:23 - 13:24
EN: Therefore Always In Short.
13:25 - 13:28
EN: But you can only sell if you can make fairly quick decisions.
13:32 - 13:33
EN: Here we have a pair of bear bars,
13:33 - 13:36
EN: but then what do you do once you see bull bars?
13:36 - 13:38
EN: Instead of a series of strong consecutive bear bars,
13:38 - 13:40
EN: now we’re trying to get a reversal.
13:45 - 13:48
EN: A lot of bears are disappointed by this, and they’ll buy back their shorts
13:48 - 13:51
EN: above the high of this bull bar or simply at the market
13:51 - 13:55
EN: around their entry price, expecting at least a small bounce
13:55 - 13:57
EN: - possibly a low of the day.
14:02 - 14:05
EN: If you do take that short and you trade it as a swing trade,
14:05 - 14:10
EN: you keep your stop above the high until there’s a clear, strong reversal.
14:10 - 14:12
EN: It was a trend from the open bear trend.
Slide 009
Time: 14:15
Bilingual Transcript
14:20 - 14:23
EN: Here we have a gap down and then we entered a Tight Trading Range.
14:23 - 14:26
EN: A lot of dojis, prominent tails, small bodies,
14:26 - 14:28
EN: and sideways with multiple reversals.
14:29 - 14:33
EN: It’s in a bear trend; therefore it’s BreakOut Mode.
14:33 - 14:35
EN: When the market’s in BreakOut Mode,
14:35 - 14:38
EN: 50% chance you’ll get a successful bear breakout,
14:38 - 14:42
EN: 50% chance you’ll get a successful bull breakout.
14:42 - 14:46
EN: 50% chance the breakout will reverse, and that’s what happened here.
14:47 - 14:49
EN: We have a bear breakout.
14:49 - 14:52
EN: It only lasted 2 bars and it reversed up.
14:54 - 14:56
EN: If you want, you can call it a Triangle.
14:56 - 14:59
EN: Three pushes down – one, two, three.
14:59 - 15:01
EN: I simply call it a Tight Trading Range.
15:05 - 15:08
EN: We have a bear breakout with consecutive bear bars,
15:08 - 15:10
EN: but a big tail and then an ii.
15:10 - 15:12
EN: A lot of hesitation after the breakout.
15:12 - 15:16
EN: This Triangle in a bear trend might be the final bear flag,
15:16 - 15:18
EN: and it could be the low of the day.
15:18 - 15:21
EN: This does not look like the start of a strong bear trend day.
15:21 - 15:25
EN: Where are the consecutive big bear bars closing on their lows?
15:25 - 15:26
EN: Where is the good follow-through?
15:26 - 15:28
EN: This is terrible follow-through.
15:29 - 15:33
EN: We’re breaking out – 50% chance the breakout will fail and reverse up
15:33 - 15:38
EN: and this will be an Exhaustion Gap; 50% chance the bear breakout will succeed
15:38 - 15:40
EN: and we’ll fall for some kind of a Measured Move,
15:40 - 15:44
EN: maybe from this high to this low, and we’ll get a gap here.
15:47 - 15:50
EN: A small ii, so it’s a small BreakOut Mode pattern.
15:51 - 15:53
EN: Bears will exit above
Slide 010
Time: 15:55
Bilingual Transcript
15:56 - 15:59
EN: and bulls will buy for a possible low of the day.
15:59 - 16:01
EN: Not a high probability buy, but the risk
16:01 - 16:04
EN: is small relative to the potential reward.
16:04 - 16:05
EN: So it’s a reasonable trade.
16:10 - 16:12
EN: Some traders prefer higher probability.
16:12 - 16:14
EN: We have a reversal up here.
16:14 - 16:17
EN: We went above the top of the final Sell Climax,
16:17 - 16:18
EN: and now we have a High 2 bull flag
16:18 - 16:22
EN: - High 1, High 2, or High 3 – and a decent bull bar.
16:22 - 16:27
EN: Bulls will buy above the high of this bar or they’ll wait for 3 or 4 bull bars
16:27 - 16:29
EN: closing near their highs, and then they’ll buy closes.
16:29 - 16:34
EN: Then they’ll buy bear closes as well, betting the first reversal down will fail.
16:40 - 16:44
EN: It’s a Buy The Close bull trend, and you can call this a spike,
16:44 - 16:48
EN: pullback, second push, pullback, third push, pullback, fourth push.
16:48 - 16:50
EN: So a Spike and Channel bull trend.
16:50 - 16:52
EN: Now, you look to the left and you say, huh,
16:52 - 16:56
EN: the open of the day is right around the middle third of the day
16:56 - 16:59
EN: and we’re around a Measured Move up from the low to the open.
16:59 - 17:01
EN: This could be a Trading Range day.
17:01 - 17:04
EN: Also, even though we have a strong reversal here,
17:04 - 17:06
EN: this is not great follow-through.
17:06 - 17:10
EN: We do not have consecutive big bull trend bars closing on their highs,
17:10 - 17:13
EN: and we’re not above all the bars to the left.
17:14 - 17:16
EN: This could be a bull leg in a Trading Range day.
17:16 - 17:21
EN: 16 consecutive bars where every low is at or above the low of the prior bar,
17:21 - 17:24
EN: that is unsustainable and therefore climactic.
17:24 - 17:27
EN: Therefore we might get a pullback fairly soon.
17:33 - 17:36
EN: Because of the possibility of a Trading Range day,
17:36 - 17:38
EN: a lot of the bulls will exit below the low of this bear bar,
17:38 - 17:41
EN: or they’ll wait for 2 or 3 bear bars and then exit.
17:45 - 17:46
EN: Again, the same chart.
Slide 011
Time: 17:45
Bilingual Transcript
17:50 - 17:53
EN: This rally could simply be a buy vacuum test
17:53 - 17:57
EN: of resistance at yesterday’s low or yesterday’s close.
17:58 - 18:02
EN: If so, it could end and we could reverse back down.
18:06 - 18:09
EN: Because of that, some bears will sell below the low of that bear bar,
18:09 - 18:13
EN: betting that at a minimum we’ll test back to the open of the day.
18:13 - 18:16
EN: At this point the open of the day is in the middle third of the day
18:16 - 18:21
EN: and we have a lot of Trading Range price action – a bear leg and now a bull leg.
18:21 - 18:24
EN: Traders expect the market to get back to the open of the day.
18:24 - 18:27
EN: It’s a reasonable short, especially if they can use a wide stop.
18:34 - 18:37
EN: Higher probability, wait until you get 3 or 4 consecutive bear bars
18:37 - 18:41
EN: and then sell closes or sell above the high of the prior bar,
18:41 - 18:44
EN: betting that the first reversal up will form a Lower High
18:44 - 18:45
EN: and we’ll get a second leg down.
18:52 - 18:56
EN: We have a spike, pullback, channel – a very Tight Channel, but still a channel.
18:56 - 18:59
EN: The market usually tries to test down to the beginning of the channel,
18:59 - 19:04
EN: down here, and at that point bears take partial profits.
19:04 - 19:10
EN: So here, we broke below the bottom of the Wedge and there’s some hesitation.
19:10 - 19:13
EN: Bears took partial profits and aggressive bulls scalped,
19:13 - 19:16
EN: betting for at least a small bounce.
19:17 - 19:19
EN: The market’s still Always In Short.
19:19 - 19:22
EN: The first reversal up probably is minor,
19:22 - 19:25
EN: so traders will look to sell from a Lower High.
19:26 - 19:29
EN: Stop above the top of the bear reversal.
19:33 - 19:37
EN: Here we have a Low 2 short – Low 1, Low 2, Micro Double Top;
19:37 - 19:42
EN: up, down, up – and a Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
19:42 - 19:44
EN: Bull trend, bear breakout, Lower High.
19:44 - 19:48
EN: Two legs up – one, pullback, two – and a second entry short.
19:48 - 19:49
EN: A reasonable short.
19:49 - 19:54
EN: Strong bear breakout below this low and a follow-through.
19:54 - 19:58
EN: Traders will start selling closes or they’ll start selling bear flags.
19:58 - 20:01
EN: Every time they see a bull reversal, they assume it will be minor
20:01 - 20:03
EN: and the bear trend will resume.
20:03 - 20:07
EN: They’ll sell a reversal down – a Low 1 or Low 1, Low 2.
20:08 - 20:14
EN: Here we have another down, up, down, so it’s a small Low 2 bear flag.
20:18 - 20:23
EN: We have three pushes down – one, pullback, two, pullback, three.
Slide 012
Time: 20:20
Bilingual Transcript
20:23 - 20:24
EN: It’s a Parabolic Wedge.
20:24 - 20:28
EN: Parabolic Wedge Bottoms are less common than Parabolic Wedge Tops,
20:28 - 20:31
EN: and they’re also often less clear.
20:33 - 20:37
EN: We have a bull bar, but why do we have that tail on top?
20:37 - 20:42
EN: We have a bull bar here; why did this bar fail to get above that high?
20:42 - 20:44
EN: Something is wrong with the bulls.
20:44 - 20:46
EN: While it’s possible this is the low of the day,
20:46 - 20:49
EN: it’s not a very strong looking Parabolic Wedge buy setup.
20:49 - 20:52
EN: If you want higher probability, wait to see
20:52 - 20:55
EN: if we get several consecutive bull bars and then buy higher.
21:01 - 21:02
EN: Not extremely oversold.
21:03 - 21:05
EN: The bars are not especially big.
21:07 - 21:09
EN: And not a parabolic curve down.
21:09 - 21:13
EN: The third push down did not break below the line
21:13 - 21:16
EN: connecting the lows of the first two legs down.
21:16 - 21:17
EN: Maybe a little bit, but not much.
21:17 - 21:20
EN: This is not extremely climactic, and therefore
21:20 - 21:24
EN: it’s not yet extremely oversold, and again, a problem.
21:24 - 21:26
EN: The bulls could not get above this bar,
21:26 - 21:29
EN: and here they have a buy signal bar, but a big tail on top.
21:29 - 21:32
EN: This is not a strong reversal up.
21:32 - 21:34
EN: Not a high probability buy.
21:39 - 21:40
EN: The channel is very tight.
21:40 - 21:45
EN: Probably the reversal is minor, which means sideways rather than up.
Slide 013
Time: 21:50
Bilingual Transcript
21:56 - 21:58
EN: That High 2 never triggered.
21:58 - 21:59
EN: High 1, High 2.
22:02 - 22:05
EN: A High 1 buy signal bar is only a small bull doji.
22:05 - 22:09
EN: Not strong enough buying to reverse this big bear bar.
22:09 - 22:13
EN: The bulls are not nearly as strong as the bears.
22:18 - 22:22
EN: While it’s a possible low of the day and an okay swing buy,
22:22 - 22:23
EN: it’s higher probability to wait to see
22:23 - 22:26
EN: if we get a strong reversal up and then buy higher.
22:27 - 22:31
EN: The probability for the bulls buying here is not high enough for a scalp.
22:32 - 22:35
EN: It’s okay for a swing, but it’s a low probability bet.
22:35 - 22:38
EN: I usually wait to see if we start to reverse up
22:38 - 22:42
EN: and then buy after the bulls have clearly taken control.
22:50 - 22:53
EN: You can see the bull reversal did not get very far.
Slide 014
Time: 22:50
Bilingual Transcript
22:53 - 22:57
EN: We have a Double Top bear flag – this high and that high
22:58 - 23:00
EN: - and this is a breakout test of that low.
23:01 - 23:02
EN: Not a very good-looking buy.
23:03 - 23:05
EN: The bulls who bought above this bar
23:05 - 23:09
EN: or above this bar are exiting on the way down.
23:09 - 23:13
EN: Instead of getting a series of bull bars, they immediately got bear bars.
23:13 - 23:15
EN: Chances are we’re going lower.
23:20 - 23:22
EN: We have 4 strong bear bars.
23:22 - 23:25
EN: Probably we’ll get at least a small second leg down.
23:25 - 23:27
EN: This could be the small second leg down,
23:27 - 23:30
EN: but I think this is enough strong selling
23:30 - 23:33
EN: so that we’ll get some kind of a Measured Move down.
23:36 - 23:39
EN: We’re near a Measured Move, but not quite there,
23:39 - 23:44
EN: and the reversal up is not strong – a Micro Double Bottom, but a bear bar.
23:44 - 23:47
EN: The market’s probably going to fall at least to this Measured Move target,
23:47 - 23:51
EN: and it’s therefore this reversal attempt is probably minor.
23:51 - 23:53
EN: It probably will become a bear flag.
23:57 - 24:00
EN: Aggressive bulls will look at it and see another Wedge Bottom.
24:00 - 24:03
EN: We had a Wedge – one, two, three – and they’ll say,
24:03 - 24:06
EN: oh, maybe it’s a Wedge here – one, two, three.
24:06 - 24:10
EN: Maybe this is the second leg down after this bear breakout.
24:10 - 24:11
EN: Probably not.
24:12 - 24:14
EN: This is a surprisingly big breakout.
24:15 - 24:18
EN: We’re probably going to get a bigger second leg down.
24:18 - 24:20
EN: Again, a low probability buy.
24:20 - 24:23
EN: A bad looking buy signal bar, 4 strong bear bars.
24:24 - 24:27
EN: Probably a minor reversal and we’ll go at least a little bit lower.
Slide 015
Time: 24:30
Bilingual Transcript
24:34 - 24:36
EN: Bear trends are always forming Wedge Bottoms.
24:36 - 24:38
EN: Bull trends are always forming Wedge Tops.
24:39 - 24:43
EN: When the channel down is very tight, the reversals are probably minor
24:43 - 24:46
EN: and these Wedges will probably become bear flags
24:46 - 24:49
EN: and the market will probably continue down.
24:53 - 24:57
EN: Here, the buy signal bar has a bear body in a very Tight Bear Channel.
24:57 - 24:59
EN: This is a low probability buy.
24:59 - 25:02
EN: Probably the best the bulls get is a Trading Range,
25:03 - 25:06
EN: but more likely they’ll get at least a little bit more down.
25:06 - 25:07
EN: The bulls will lose money.
25:15 - 25:17
EN: Bulls tried to get a High 2.
25:17 - 25:20
EN: Selloff, High 1, selloff, High 2.
25:20 - 25:21
EN: They only have a doji.
25:21 - 25:24
EN: They have another attempt at it here, and a bear bar.
25:30 - 25:33
EN: Big bear breakout, so probably more of a second leg down.
25:42 - 25:46
EN: Again, higher probability to wait either for a better bottom
25:46 - 25:48
EN: or a strong reversal up and then buy.
25:48 - 25:53
EN: Right now all reversals up will probably fail, become bear flags,
25:53 - 25:56
EN: and lead to at least a little bit more down.
Slide 016
Time: 26:00
Bilingual Transcript
26:02 - 26:05
EN: First leg down, pullback, second leg down.
26:08 - 26:10
EN: We reached the Measured Move target.
26:10 - 26:13
EN: We fell a little bit below it, and now you can argue another Wedge Bottom
26:13 - 26:18
EN: - one, two or two, and three or one, two, three.
26:18 - 26:21
EN: Different computers will calculate the legs differently.
26:24 - 26:28
EN: You can also say one, two, or three.
26:28 - 26:31
EN: Again, different computers will use different bars,
26:31 - 26:33
EN: but the principle is the same.
26:33 - 26:35
EN: You can call it a nested Wedge.
26:35 - 26:38
EN: We have a smaller Wedge here inside of a bigger Wedge here.
26:38 - 26:40
EN: That’s a higher probability reversal.
26:44 - 26:48
EN: And a second Parabolic Wedge Bottom, a very Tight Channel Wedge,
26:48 - 26:51
EN: and it fell below the Measured Move target.
Slide 017
Time: 26:55
Bilingual Transcript
26:58 - 27:02
EN: We have a series of Sell Climaxes – here, here, here,
27:03 - 27:06
EN: a 4 bar Sell Climax here, 3 bar Sell Climax here.
27:06 - 27:11
EN: The market probably is going to get exhausted and the market then will probably
27:11 - 27:14
EN: have to go sideways for 10, 20, or 30 bars.
27:14 - 27:19
EN: 10 bars, two legs (TBTL) sideways to up is likely.
27:19 - 27:22
EN: Here we got Leg 1, pullback, Leg 2.
Slide 018
Time: 27:25
Bilingual Transcript
27:26 - 27:29
EN: The market has a complex bottom attempt here.
27:29 - 27:32
EN: By complex, I mean a High 2 or a High 3.
27:32 - 27:34
EN: Here we have a High 3, a Wedge Bottom.
27:34 - 27:37
EN: We have a breakout and then another complex bottom
27:37 - 27:40
EN: - High 1, High 2, or a small Wedge.
27:42 - 27:47
EN: First bottom failed, and now we’re getting another complex bottom attempt.
27:51 - 27:55
EN: Strong enough bear breakout to expect at least a small second leg down.
Slide 019
Time: 28:00
Bilingual Transcript
28:02 - 28:05
EN: I used to refer to this kind of a setup as a High 4,
28:06 - 28:09
EN: but so much of the time it’s really a High 5 or a High 6.
28:09 - 28:14
EN: Basically it’s a complex consecutive bottom pattern
28:14 - 28:17
EN: where you get a complex bottom and then a second complex bottom.
28:18 - 28:21
EN: It can be a High 4, a High 5, or a High 6.
28:21 - 28:24
EN: The first bottom was a Wedge, and the second bottom
28:24 - 28:27
EN: was also a Wedge, so this is a High 6.
28:27 - 28:30
EN: If you want you can call it a variation of a High 4,
28:30 - 28:34
EN: or you can call it simply consecutive bottoms, which is what I now call it.
28:45 - 28:48
EN: The market tried hard to bottom; it failed.
28:48 - 28:49
EN: It tried hard again to bottom.
28:49 - 28:53
EN: Higher probability that the second attempt will be successful.
29:00 - 29:02
EN: It doesn’t matter if you call it a High 2
29:02 - 29:05
EN: or a High 3 or a High 2 or a High 3 down here.
29:05 - 29:08
EN: The market is trying to bottom in a complex way.
29:08 - 29:12
EN: We got a bear breakout and it’s trying to bottom again in a complex way.
Slide 020
Time: 29:15
Bilingual Transcript
29:18 - 29:21
EN: After you have consecutive complex bottoms like this,
29:21 - 29:26
EN: 60% chance you’ll have at least a couple legs sideways to up – which we got.
29:28 - 29:31
EN: Traders will buy above the high of this Micro Double Bottom
29:31 - 29:34
EN: or they’ll wait for bull closes and then start buying bull closes.
29:34 - 29:36
EN: That is a higher probability bet.
29:38 - 29:42
EN: Either way they’re going to put a stop below the low of this strong bull bar.
29:46 - 29:50
EN: Here we have a good bull bar and then we have a second consecutive bull bar.
29:50 - 29:55
EN: Traders will start buying closes on either this bar or this bar.
29:55 - 29:58
EN: They can buy closes all the way up as long as they put a stop
29:58 - 30:00
EN: below the bottom of the bull reversal.
30:04 - 30:06
EN: A Buy The Close bull trend.
30:06 - 30:09
EN: After three or four closes, bull closes like that,
30:09 - 30:14
EN: traders should start buying closes either for a swing trade or for scalps.
30:19 - 30:20
EN: We’re getting a reversal down.
30:20 - 30:23
EN: It’s about a 10 bar bull Micro Channel,
30:23 - 30:26
EN: but it’s a reversal up from a very Tight Bear Channel.
30:26 - 30:29
EN: The first reversal up is probably minor,
30:29 - 30:31
EN: which means we’ll probably get a test down
30:31 - 30:34
EN: and then get a major reversal attempt.
30:34 - 30:37
EN: Bear trend, strong bull breakout.
30:37 - 30:41
EN: An attempt by the bears to resume down, yet we’re getting a Higher Low
30:41 - 30:46
EN: with a decent bull bar, a breakout test of the buy signal bar highs,
30:46 - 30:49
EN: and about a 50% pullback of the initial rally.
30:49 - 30:51
EN: Two legs down – one, pullback, two.
30:51 - 30:54
EN: This is probably going to lead to at least a small second leg up.
30:54 - 30:56
EN: Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
Slide 021
Time: 31:00
Bilingual Transcript
31:03 - 31:06
EN: Because the first leg up is probably minor,
31:07 - 31:10
EN: bulls will take profits on a resumption of the bear trend back down.
31:10 - 31:14
EN: However, a lot of bulls will buy the Higher Low,
31:14 - 31:18
EN: betting that it’s a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal – and it is.
31:18 - 31:22
EN: 40% chance that they’ll get a swing up, 60% chance that the market
31:22 - 31:25
EN: will either go sideways or start to go down.
31:25 - 31:26
EN: The risk is not big.
31:26 - 31:30
EN: They buy above the high of this decent bull bar, stop just below,
31:30 - 31:34
EN: or stop below here, looking for at least a small second leg up.
31:35 - 31:39
EN: Now we have a Double Bottom – this low, that low.
31:39 - 31:40
EN: This is a Double Bottom Higher Low.
31:40 - 31:42
EN: We also have a Wedge.
31:42 - 31:45
EN: Three pushes down – one, two, three.
31:45 - 31:48
EN: So a Wedge and a Double Bottom.
31:48 - 31:51
EN: Probably Always In Long after this strong rally.
31:51 - 31:53
EN: Reasonable to buy the reversal up here.
31:54 - 31:58
EN: Or if you prefer to buy above a bull bar – many traders do – you buy here.
31:58 - 32:01
EN: That has a higher probability of success.
32:05 - 32:08
EN: Two legs up likely – one, pullback, two
32:08 - 32:11
EN: - and we have a lot of Trading Range price action.
32:11 - 32:16
EN: This is a bull breakout above a Trading Range that lasted about 60 bars.
32:16 - 32:21
EN: Most Trading Range breakouts fail, and therefore a lot of the bulls will exit,
32:21 - 32:25
EN: take profits on a reversal down, especially below a bear bar.
32:25 - 32:28
EN: Two legs up – one, pullback, two – and a bear bar,
32:28 - 32:30
EN: failed breakout above the prior high.
32:30 - 32:33
EN: Failed breakout above the top of the Trading Range.
32:33 - 32:34
EN: Reasonable to take profits.
32:37 - 32:42
EN: Bears see a Trading Range as well and a breakout, and it’s failing.
32:42 - 32:45
EN: They’ll sell for at least a scalp.
Slide 022
Time: 32:50
Bilingual Transcript
32:54 - 32:56
EN: Again, a Parabolic Wedge Bottom.
32:56 - 32:58
EN: We tried to reverse up a second time.
32:58 - 33:01
EN: This bar went above that bar, which is good,
33:01 - 33:04
EN: and this bar is a good-looking buy signal bar.
33:04 - 33:07
EN: That increases the chances that we’re going to get a reversal up.
33:07 - 33:09
EN: Here we fell below the bottom of the Wedge
33:09 - 33:13
EN: - the line connecting Point 1 and Point 2 – and we are reversing up.
33:13 - 33:18
EN: Not a particularly strong buy signal bar, but it’s a reasonable buy.
33:18 - 33:20
EN: Yesterday’s low is around here.
33:20 - 33:25
EN: This is a Wedge Bottom opening reversal at support.
33:25 - 33:28
EN: Yesterday’s low, a failed breakout below yesterday’s low.
33:29 - 33:32
EN: Maybe a 40% chance it’s going to be the low of the day.
33:36 - 33:39
EN: Aggressive bulls buy above the high of the buy signal bar,
33:39 - 33:40
EN: betting on the Wedge Bottom.
33:40 - 33:42
EN: Stop is right here.
33:42 - 33:43
EN: The risk is small.
33:43 - 33:46
EN: The reward is many times greater than the risk,
33:46 - 33:51
EN: so it’s a very good trade even if the probability is only 40%.
33:58 - 34:00
EN: Traders who prefer a higher probability trade wait
34:00 - 34:04
EN: until we see a couple strong bull bars and then they’ll buy closes,
34:04 - 34:08
EN: and they’ll also buy below a bear bar, betting that the market
34:08 - 34:11
EN: is now Always In Long and a reversal down will fail.
34:11 - 34:14
EN: So they’ll buy at the low of this bar and they’ll get filled here,
34:14 - 34:16
EN: and then we have a High 1 buy.
34:16 - 34:19
EN: We have a bull breakout of a Wedge bear channel.
34:19 - 34:22
EN: Bulls will buy above a bull bar on the resumption up.
34:22 - 34:27
EN: These buys all have a higher probability of a profit than this initial buy.
34:27 - 34:30
EN: The stop is the same whether you bought here or here.
34:31 - 34:35
EN: You’re taking a higher probability buy here, and the stop is further away.
34:35 - 34:38
EN: The risk is greater, and that’s always the case
34:38 - 34:40
EN: whenever you take a higher probability trade.
34:40 - 34:45
EN: You pay for it with worse risk/reward – usually a stop further away.
34:47 - 34:50
EN: After several bull bars closing on their highs,
34:50 - 34:52
EN: it becomes a Buy The Close bull trend
34:52 - 34:55
EN: and traders can buy at any time for any reason.
34:55 - 34:57
EN: Some traders will buy and exit.
34:57 - 34:59
EN: They’ll keep buying and scalping.
34:59 - 35:02
EN: Other traders will just buy once and hold all the way up.
35:02 - 35:07
EN: Some traders will buy once and then take one or more of these buys
35:07 - 35:12
EN: to add to their position, scaling into a trade that is going their way.
Slide 023
Time: 35:15
Bilingual Transcript
35:17 - 35:21
EN: This video shows many day trading examples for swing traders.
35:24 - 35:25
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
35:25 - 35:27
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
35:27 - 35:31
EN: This is the second of six videos on swing trading examples.