al-brooks-course
39C - Trading MTR Bottoms
Raw transcript and slide notes for 39C - Trading MTR Bottoms.
Overview
- Slides: 13
- Transcript segments: 390
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:10
EN: This is the third of four videos on trading Major Trend Reversal Bottoms.
ZH: 这是底部大反转的第3节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:13
Bilingual Transcript
00:14 - 00:17
EN: In addition to talking about Major Trend Reversal Bottoms,
ZH: 除了讲解底部大反转之外
00:17 - 00:21
EN: I think it’s important again to make the point that there are no perfect trades,
ZH: 我会再次强调，不存在完美的交易机会
00:22 - 00:27
EN: and traders who believe that there are, will be disappointed as traders
ZH: 相信存在完美策略的交易者，一定会感到失望
00:27 - 00:30
EN: because there always has to be a reason for somebody to take the other side.
ZH: 因为任何一笔交易都存在对手盘（注：90%以上的成交量来自于机构， 所以90%以上的概率，至少有一个机构站在你的对面）
00:31 - 00:36
EN: If your trade is perfectly good, then the other side gets a perfectly bad trade,
ZH: 如果你的交易是完美的，那么代表对方肯定会亏钱
00:36 - 00:38
EN: and no institution is going to take that trade.
ZH: 没有机构会傻乎乎地接受这样的交易
Slide 002
Time: 00:40
Bilingual Transcript
00:43 - 00:45
EN: This chart has a reversal.
ZH: 行情发生了反转
00:51 - 00:53
EN: Strong bear trend, very Tight Channel.
ZH: 强下降趋势，通道非常窄
00:53 - 00:58
EN: Small pullbacks – just a brief 1 bar pullback here and a 1 bar pullback here
ZH: 反弹很小——反弹只有1根K线，这里也只有1根K线
00:58 - 01:01
EN: - but we’re starting to get pretty good bull bars.
ZH: 但现在开始看到一些不错的阳线
01:01 - 01:02
EN: We have a bull bar here.
ZH: 这是一根大阳线
01:02 - 01:04
EN: We have a very good bull reversal bar here.
ZH: 这里也是一根很不错的反转阳线
01:04 - 01:07
EN: We have a follow-through bull bar and we have another bull bar here,
ZH: 后面有跟随的阳线，这里又有一根大阳线
01:07 - 01:10
EN: and then over here we’re getting additional bull bars.
ZH: 然后在这里，也是有很多阳线
01:12 - 01:16
EN: All of this buying around yesterday’s low and yesterday’s close
ZH: 所有的买盘都集中在昨天的低点和收盘价附近
01:16 - 01:22
EN: increases the chances that we’ll get some kind of a reversal
ZH: 增加了在这个区域，或者在下方，会出现反转的可能性
01:20 - 01:22
EN: in this general area, or maybe a little bit lower.
ZH: 增加了在这个区域，或者在下方，会出现反转的可能性
01:26 - 01:28
EN: This is a reasonable buy.
ZH: 这是一个合理的买入点
01:28 - 01:33
EN: There is a bear trend, a bull break above the trend line
ZH: 下降趋势，有强势的阳线突破了下降趋势线
01:32 - 01:38
EN: with pretty good bars here, and then we have two attempts
ZH: 下降趋势，有强势的阳线突破了下降趋势线 这里两次尝试反转上涨，都是阳线收在一半以上
01:35 - 01:38
EN: to reverse up here, both bars closing above their midpoints.
ZH: 这里两次尝试反转上涨，都是阳线收在一半以上
01:38 - 01:42
EN: This is a possible low of the day, and we might get a swing up.
ZH: 也许今天的低点已经出现了，接下来会有上涨波段
01:43 - 01:45
EN: It’s reasonable to take this buy.
ZH: 在这里买入做多是合理的
01:45 - 01:54
EN: When you take a Major Trend Reversal buy like this, you have a 40% chance
ZH: 在这里做多押注大反转，有40%的概率可以赚到大波段， 60%的时间是小赚、小亏
01:49 - 01:54
EN: of a swing up and 60% chance of either a small loss or a small win.
ZH: 在这里做多押注大反转，有40%的概率可以赚到大波段， 60%的时间是小赚、小亏
01:59 - 02:01
EN: A lot of traders just look at this and say,
ZH: 一些交易者会认为：
02:01 - 02:03
EN: yeah, that’s pretty good Buying Pressure.
ZH: 不错，这里的买压很好
02:03 - 02:10
EN: If this is not the low and this is not the low and this is not the low,
ZH: 就算这里、这里、这里不是底部，底部也不会很远了
02:07 - 02:10
EN: then the low is probably not much lower,
ZH: 就算这里、这里、这里不是底部，底部也不会很远了
02:10 - 02:14
EN: and therefore they’ll use a wide stop and scale in lower.
ZH: 所以他们会使用较宽的初始止损，然后逢低加仓
02:16 - 02:19
EN: Here we have a Double Top bear flag,
ZH: 这里有一个双顶熊旗
02:19 - 02:25
EN: and a reasonable place to put a stop is a little bit
ZH: 一个合理的宽止损选择是，放在这个双顶熊旗的MM目标位下方， 大约在屏幕最下面这个位置
02:21 - 02:25
EN: below a Measured Move down, which is off the bottom of the screen.
ZH: 一个合理的宽止损选择是，放在这个双顶熊旗的MM目标位下方， 大约在屏幕最下面这个位置
02:25 - 02:33
EN: Some traders would take this buy, and rather than getting stopped out here
ZH: 一些多头会在这里买入，但不会吧止损放在这个双底下方， 也不放在这个低点下方
02:28 - 02:33
EN: below this Double Bottom Higher Low or below the actual bottom here,
ZH: 一些多头会在这里买入，但不会吧止损放在这个双底下方， 也不放在这个低点下方
02:33 - 02:38
EN: they’ll use a wide stop, betting that the bottom will be soon if not here.
ZH: 而是使用较宽的初始止损，押注底部很快就会出现
02:38 - 02:40
EN: And they’ll look to buy more lower.
ZH: 所以他们会在更低的位置买入更多
02:45 - 02:49
EN: For example, we have a bear breakout that looks like it’s failing
ZH: 例如，空头向下跌破的尝试看起来失败了
02:49 - 02:53
EN: and reversing up, so a trader who bought here might buy more here.
ZH: 开始反转上涨，所以之前买入的多头，会在这里加仓
02:53 - 02:56
EN: He had a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal;
ZH: 之前是低点抬高的大反转机会
02:56 - 03:00
EN: now he has a potential Lower Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 现在是低点降低的大反转机会
03:01 - 03:03
EN: I have two problems with this buy.
ZH: 有两个原因，我不会在这里买入
03:03 - 03:07
EN: First, there are a pair of reasonably good bear bars, and it’s a surprise.
ZH: 首先，这两根阴线非常强势，它们是空头的惊喜K线
03:07 - 03:09
EN: The bulls had a reasonable buy.
ZH: 多头有一个合理的买入点
03:09 - 03:13
EN: When you get that, you’re usually going to get at least a small second leg down.
ZH: 但是被快速向下跌破，通常至少会有小的第2段下跌
03:13 - 03:19
EN: It turns out that this little bar going below
ZH: 而后面这根K线的下影线，就是继续下跌的尝试， 就是小的第2段下跌
03:16 - 03:23
EN: that bar was the small second leg down, and rather than buy here,
ZH: 而后面这根K线的下影线，就是继续下跌的尝试， 就是小的第2段下跌 所以我不会在这里买入，而是宁愿等待第2个入场点
03:20 - 03:23
EN: I would rather take the second entry buy here.
ZH: 所以我不会在这里买入，而是宁愿等待第2个入场点
03:23 - 03:28
EN: Micro Double Bottom, down and up and then down, and trying to go up again.
ZH: 小双底——下跌、上涨；下跌，再次反转上涨
Slide 003
Time: 03:35
Bilingual Transcript
03:36 - 03:38
EN: I said that there are no perfect trades.
ZH: 我说过，不存在完美的交易机会
03:38 - 03:40
EN: Every trade is a decision.
ZH: 每一笔交易都需要做决策
03:40 - 03:44
EN: One side is going to get better risk/reward,
ZH: 一方的盈亏比更好
03:44 - 03:46
EN: and the other side is going to get higher probability.
ZH: 另一方的胜率更高
03:48 - 03:52
EN: Whenever you’re entering and using a tight stop, your risk is small.
ZH: 如果你选择用宅止损，你的风险很小
03:52 - 03:54
EN: That means your risk/reward is good,
ZH: 这代表你的盈亏比很好
03:54 - 03:57
EN: but the probability of making money is less.
ZH: 但赚钱的概率比较低
03:57 - 04:01
EN: If you buy after a strong reversal, your stop is further away,
ZH: 如果你在强势上涨之后再买入，止损会更远
04:02 - 04:05
EN: but the probability of making money is higher.
ZH: 但赚钱的概率更高
04:08 - 04:11
EN: Let’s say a bull takes this buy above this bar
ZH: 假设一个多头在这根K线上方买入
04:11 - 04:14
EN: or above the second entry, right here.
ZH: 或者在第2入场点买入，也就是这里
04:21 - 04:23
EN: Lower Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 低点降低的大反转
04:23 - 04:27
EN: It’s a low risk trade, assuming he puts his stop below this low.
ZH: 如果把止损放在这个低点下方，这笔交易的风险很小
04:28 - 04:31
EN: Even if he buys above here, he’ll probably put his stop down here.
ZH: 即使是在这里买入，止损也是放在这个低点下方
04:31 - 04:37
EN: Low risk, but low risk almost always goes in hand with low probability.
ZH: 低风险，但低风险总是和低胜率一起出现
04:38 - 04:45
EN: If you take that buy or this buy, there’s a 40% chance of making a profit
ZH: 如果你在这里、或这里买入， 有40%的概率可以赚到两倍于实际风险的利润
04:42 - 04:45
EN: that is at least twice your Actual Risk
ZH: 如果你在这里、或这里买入， 有40%的概率可以赚到两倍于实际风险的利润
04:46 - 04:50
EN: and a 60% chance of a small win or a small loss.
ZH: 60%的概率是小赚或小亏
04:55 - 04:57
EN: Some traders prefer higher probability,
ZH: 一些交易者更喜欢高胜率，
04:57 - 05:01
EN: and that comes once you have a clear breakout like this.
ZH: 比如看到像这样的明确突破
05:01 - 05:05
EN: These consecutive bull bars above this high and above this Double Top
ZH: 这些连续的阳线突破了这个高点，突破了这个双顶，
05:05 - 05:08
EN: and above that high represent the bears giving up.
ZH: 也突破了那个高点，代表空头正在放弃
05:08 - 05:15
EN: They’ve decided that the bottom is in, and we’re probably going
ZH: 他们知道底部已经形成，至少会有两段上涨—— 1，回调，2，或者2
05:11 - 05:15
EN: for at least two legs up – one, pullback, two or two.
ZH: 他们知道底部已经形成，至少会有两段上涨—— 1，回调，2，或者2
05:17 - 05:21
EN: If you buy here, your stop is either here or below these bars.
ZH: 如果你在这里买入，你的止损要么在这里，要么在这些K线下方
05:21 - 05:22
EN: It’s further away.
ZH: 止损更远
05:22 - 05:28
EN: You’re risking more, but that’s the tradeoff
ZH: 你承担了更多的风险，这就是获得高胜率的代价
05:25 - 05:28
EN: when you’re taking a trade that has a higher probability.
ZH: 你承担了更多的风险，这就是获得高胜率的代价
05:28 - 05:33
EN: It’s reasonable to buy that close and use the wider stop, greater risk.
ZH: 在它的收盘买入，用较宽的止损，是合理的，尽管风险更大
05:33 - 05:39
EN: It’s reasonable to take the entry here or here
ZH: 在这里或这里买入，用窄止损，也是合理的，只不过胜率较低
05:36 - 05:39
EN: with a tighter stop, but lower probability.
ZH: 在这里或这里买入，用窄止损，也是合理的，只不过胜率较低
05:39 - 05:44
EN: If you take either one 100 times, the profit will be about the same.
ZH: 用两种方法各做100次交易，最终的利润最终是差不多的
05:47 - 05:50
EN: You can buy that close or buy the close of the follow-through bar.
ZH: 可以在它的收盘买入，或者在跟随K线的收盘买入
05:50 - 05:53
EN: Once it’s clearly Always In Long like this, you can buy for any reason.
ZH: 一旦市场明显进入了这样的单边上涨， 你可以用任何方法买入
05:53 - 05:55
EN: Buy closes, buy bear closes.
ZH: 买阳线的收盘，买阴线的收盘
05:55 - 05:57
EN: Buy above bars, get filled here.
ZH: 在K线上方挂突破买单——在这里成交
05:57 - 06:00
EN: Buy below bars, bet reversal attempts will fail.
ZH: 在K线下方挂限价买单，押注反转的尝试会失败
Slide 004
Time: 06:05
Bilingual Transcript
06:10 - 06:18
EN: I mentioned that when you have a bear breakout like this
ZH: 刚才提到，这样一个可靠的底部结构被跌破之后， 通常至少会有小的第2段下跌
06:13 - 06:18
EN: below a credible bottom, you’re usually going to get
ZH: 刚才提到，这样一个可靠的底部结构被跌破之后， 通常至少会有小的第2段下跌
06:16 - 06:18
EN: at least a small second leg down.
ZH: 刚才提到，这样一个可靠的底部结构被跌破之后， 通常至少会有小的第2段下跌
06:18 - 06:20
EN: We have consecutive bear bars closing on their lows.
ZH: 连续的大阴线收在最低
06:20 - 06:28
EN: Usually you’re going to get at least a second reversal down,
ZH: 通常至少会有小的第2段下跌 也就是说，多头需要一个小双底
06:24 - 06:28
EN: second leg down, and the bulls usually need a Micro Double Bottom
ZH: 通常至少会有小的第2段下跌 也就是说，多头需要一个小双底
06:28 - 06:30
EN: before the probability is high enough to get a reversal.
ZH: 反转成功的概率才会更高
06:30 - 06:33
EN: We’re testing yesterday’s low, testing yesterday’s close,
ZH: 市场正在测试昨天的低点，测试昨天的收盘价
06:33 - 06:36
EN: and this is a second attempt at a bottom.
ZH: 现在是第2次尝试形成底部
06:36 - 06:38
EN: The bulls tried to get a bottom here,
ZH: 多头在这里尝试形成底部
06:38 - 06:42
EN: and now they’re trying to get a bottom here, and especially here.
ZH: 现在再次尝试筑底，尤其是这里
06:42 - 06:50
EN: If ever you’re faced with a situation like this,
ZH: 如果遇到这种情况：低点降低的大反转， 但做多信号K并不是太好
06:46 - 06:50
EN: a Lower Low Major Trend Reversal but the buy signal bar is not all that good
ZH: 如果遇到这种情况：低点降低的大反转， 但做多信号K并不是太好
06:50 - 06:58
EN: and it’s following a pretty good bear breakout, a lot of traders will wait
ZH: 而且左边是强势的连续大阴线， 很多交易者会选择等待第2入场点——小双底，在这里买入
06:54 - 06:58
EN: for a second entry buy – a Micro Double Bottom – and enter here.
ZH: 而且左边是强势的连续大阴线， 很多交易者会选择等待第2入场点——小双底，在这里买入
06:58 - 07:01
EN: This has a higher probability of making money than this.
ZH: 这里买入的胜率，比在这里买入更高一些
07:07 - 07:11
EN: If you want higher probability still, you wait for a strong breakout,
ZH: 如果想要更高的概率，则可以等待强势的突破
07:11 - 07:14
EN: then we’re probably going to get some kind of a Measured Move up
ZH: 此时大概率会涨到某个MM目标位
07:14 - 07:17
EN: - maybe based upon the height of this Double Top bear flag.
ZH: ——比如把这个双顶熊旗的高度往上翻一倍
07:17 - 07:21
EN: Instead of breaking below the neckline, we’re breaking above the Double Top,
ZH: 没有向下跌破双顶的颈线，而是向上突破
07:21 - 07:24
EN: and we should go up for at least a Measured Move.
ZH: 所以至少会涨到MM目标位
Slide 005
Time: 07:30
Bilingual Transcript
07:31 - 07:35
EN: When a trader is looking for a Major Trend Reversal in a bear trend,
ZH: 当交易者在下降趋势中寻找大反转的机会时
07:35 - 07:39
EN: first he wants a bull break above the bear channel,
ZH: 首先需要看到多头突破下降通道
07:39 - 07:41
EN: and he’d like it to be as strong as possible.
ZH: （第1次反转）越强势越好
07:41 - 07:49
EN: Here, we rallied for about 10 bars and we have gaps
ZH: 这里，上涨了大约10根K线， 而且这些K线的最低点和均线之间存在缺口
07:46 - 07:49
EN: below this bar and that bar and the Moving Average.
ZH: 这里，上涨了大约10根K线， 而且这些K线的最低点和均线之间存在缺口
07:49 - 07:54
EN: The bulls were strong enough to put bars completely above the average price.
ZH: 多头变得足够强壮，能够把K线完全放在平均价格之上
07:54 - 07:56
EN: That is a sign of strong bulls.
ZH: 这是多头变强的信号
07:56 - 07:59
EN: We have consecutive bull bars with good size bodies
ZH: 有连续的阳线，K线体积很大
07:59 - 08:02
EN: closing on their highs, and then we have a third bull bar.
ZH: 收在最高，而且有连续第3根阳线
08:02 - 08:07
EN: This is a sign that the bulls are strong enough
ZH: 这是多头变得足够强大、可能掌控市场的信号
08:05 - 08:07
EN: to possibly take control over the market.
ZH: 这是多头变得足够强大、可能掌控市场的信号
08:08 - 08:11
EN: This is not a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 但它还不是大反转
08:11 - 08:15
EN: We only had 3 bars up and 3 or 4 bars down.
ZH: 只有3根K线上涨，3根K线下跌
08:15 - 08:20
EN: This is too small to be a major reversal, so this is probably a minor reversal.
ZH: 这个结构太小，不足以制造大反转，所以大概率是小反转
08:20 - 08:24
EN: But it’s strong enough so that if we get a resumption of the bear trend
ZH: 但反弹足够强势，所以如果下降趋势恢复（到前期低点附近）
08:24 - 08:29
EN: and then another reversal, this could be a major reversal.
ZH: 然后再次反转上涨的话，可能是大反转
08:29 - 08:34
EN: In other words, this was likely to lead to a Trading Range or a bear flag;
ZH: 换句话说，它更有可能变成震荡区间或熊旗
08:34 - 08:39
EN: however, this one has a 40% chance of leading to a bull trend.
ZH: 但是这一次，有40%的概率反转成为上涨趋势
08:43 - 08:44
EN: Gap bars.
ZH: 缺口K线
08:44 - 08:49
EN: A gap between the lows of the bars
ZH: 这些K线的低点和均线之间存在缺口，这是多头变强的信号
08:46 - 08:49
EN: and the Moving Average, a sign of strong bulls.
ZH: 这些K线的低点和均线之间存在缺口，这是多头变强的信号
08:49 - 08:52
EN: When the bear trend resumes after gap bars,
ZH: 在缺口K线之后，下降趋势恢复到前期低点
08:52 - 08:56
EN: usually you’re going to get an attempt at a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 此时通常会有大反转的尝试
08:57 - 09:01
EN: We have a Micro Double Bottom, we have a bull bar closing on its high.
ZH: 小双底，阳线收在最高
09:01 - 09:04
EN: It’s reasonable to buy on a stop above that bull bar,
ZH: 在那根阳线上方挂突破买单是合理的
09:04 - 09:05
EN: and then you get filled right here.
ZH: 订单会在这里成交
09:05 - 09:08
EN: This low is slightly above that low.
ZH: 这个低点略高于那个低点
09:08 - 09:11
EN: This is therefore a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 所以是低点抬高的大反转结构
09:11 - 09:16
EN: Remember, every Major Trend Reversal Bottom is a variation of a Double Bottom.
ZH: 每个底部大反转都是某种双底
09:16 - 09:19
EN: Here, the second bottom is slightly above the first.
ZH: 这里，第2个低点略微高于第1个
09:22 - 09:27
EN: If you take this buy, you can put your stop either below here or below there.
ZH: 如果你在这里买入，可以把止损放在它的下方，或者它的下方
09:27 - 09:28
EN: It’s about the same price.
ZH: 几乎是相同的价格
09:28 - 09:31
EN: I usually would put my stop below the lower of the two.
ZH: 我通常会把止损放在更低的那个低点下方
09:34 - 09:35
EN: Your risk is small.
ZH: 风险很小
Slide 006
Time: 09:35
Bilingual Transcript
09:36 - 09:40
EN: Therefore, the probability of success is relatively small as well.
ZH: 因此，成功的概率也相对较小
09:40 - 09:44
EN: Most Major Trend Reversals result in the market going sideways
ZH: 大部分大反转的尝试会变成横盘，
09:44 - 09:47
EN: and not turning into an opposite trend.
ZH: 而不是完全变成相反的趋势
09:48 - 09:51
EN: 40% of the time, though, you get an opposite trend,
ZH: 不过有40%的时间，你可以赚到一个相反的趋势
09:51 - 09:53
EN: and the reward is many times greater than the risk,
ZH: 利润是风险的好几倍
09:53 - 09:56
EN: and that makes it worthwhile to take these trades.
ZH: 所以这样做是值得的
09:56 - 09:59
EN: 60% of the time you get a small loss or a small win.
ZH: 60%的时间里会是小赚或小亏
10:04 - 10:07
EN: We got a reversal up and then a pretty strong selloff here.
ZH: 尝试反转上涨，但突然大阴线下跌
10:07 - 10:10
EN: We’re trying to rally up again, and a big tail right here.
ZH: 再次尝试上涨，它的上影线合唱
10:10 - 10:13
EN: So now we have a Double Top and a bear trend,
ZH: 所以变成了下降趋势中的双顶
10:13 - 10:19
EN: and the premise of a strong reversal is much weaker.
ZH: 此时，多头强势反转的假设变弱了很多
10:17 - 10:23
EN: Much lower probability at this point, and a lot of bulls would get out either
ZH: 此时，多头强势反转的假设变弱了很多 所以很多多头会在这个阳线下方，或那个阴线下方提前离场
10:21 - 10:23
EN: below this bull bar or below that bear bar,
ZH: 所以很多多头会在这个阳线下方，或那个阴线下方提前离场
10:24 - 10:27
EN: fearful that we’ll break below the neckline of this Double Top.
ZH: 担心万一双顶的颈线被跌破——
10:27 - 10:30
EN: Double Top, neckline, and go for another leg down.
ZH: 双顶，颈线，继续下跌
10:33 - 10:36
EN: If you take that short, your stop is either here
ZH: 如果做空，止损要么放在这里——
10:36 - 10:38
EN: - this is only a minor reversal.
ZH: 这个高点相对没那么重要
10:38 - 10:42
EN: It’s a Double Top, which is good for the bears, but it’s a minor reversal.
ZH: 它确实是双顶，对空头而言有利，但这只是次要的高点
10:42 - 10:44
EN: This is more of a major reversal.
ZH: 这个高点更加重要
10:44 - 10:47
EN: It has a stronger leg down, and we almost got to a new low.
ZH: 因为它后面的下跌更加强势，几乎跌到了新低
10:48 - 10:51
EN: The bears will sell either with a stop above the Double Top
ZH: 空头卖出做空之后，要么把止损放在双顶上方，
10:51 - 10:56
EN: or above the top of this Lower High, taking a chance that we get a swing down.
ZH: 要么放在这个重要的高点上方，押注会有下跌波段
11:02 - 11:05
EN: The market’s sideways for about 40 or 50 bars.
ZH: 市场横盘了大约40到50根K线
11:05 - 11:09
EN: Whenever that’s the case, there’s a 50/50 chance you’re going
ZH: 在这种情况下，50%的概率会反转上涨
11:09 - 11:13
EN: to get a trend reversal up and a 50/50 chance you’ll get trend resumption down.
ZH: 50%的概率会继续下跌
11:13 - 11:18
EN: And there’s always a reasonable sell setup
ZH: 而在震荡区间里，总是既有合理的做空机会——双顶熊旗
11:16 - 11:18
EN: - here we have a Double Top bear flag
ZH: 而在震荡区间里，总是既有合理的做空机会——双顶熊旗
11:18 - 11:23
EN: - and there’s always a reasonable buy setup
ZH: 又有合理的做多机会——低点抬高的大反转结构
11:21 - 11:23
EN: - here we have a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 又有合理的做多机会——低点抬高的大反转结构
11:24 - 11:27
EN: If you want, you can call this a Double Bottom or a Triangle.
ZH: 你也可以说它是双底，或者三角形
11:27 - 11:30
EN: Three legs down, one, two, three.
ZH: 有3次向下的推动——1，2，3
11:30 - 11:33
EN: It doesn’t matter what you call it; we’re in BreakOut Mode.
ZH: 总之，市场处于突破模式
11:33 - 11:38
EN: 50% chance there’ll be a bull breakout, 50% chance there’ll be a bear breakout.
ZH: 50%的概率向上突破，50%的概率向下突破
11:38 - 11:42
EN: 50% chance the first breakout will fail, up or down.
ZH: 50%的概率第1次突破会失败——无论向上还是向下
11:42 - 11:47
EN: The bulls who buy this have a 40% chance of a swing up
ZH: 在这里买入的多头，有40%的概率不会被止损， 然后赚到上涨波段
11:45 - 11:47
EN: before their stop is hit.
ZH: 在这里买入的多头，有40%的概率不会被止损， 然后赚到上涨波段
11:47 - 11:53
EN: The bears who sell this have a 40% chance of a swing down
ZH: 在这里卖空的空头，有40%的概率不会被止损， 然后赚到下跌波段
11:50 - 11:53
EN: before one of their stops is hit.
ZH: 在这里卖空的空头，有40%的概率不会被止损， 然后赚到下跌波段
11:54 - 11:58
EN: Sometimes the market will go below this low, hit the stop, and reverse up.
ZH: 有时市场会先跌破这个低点，打掉多头的止损，然后反转上涨
11:58 - 12:04
EN: Sometimes it’ll go above this high and reverse down,
ZH: 有时它会先突破这个高点，或这个高点， （打掉空头的止损）然后反转下跌
12:01 - 12:04
EN: or above this high and then reverse down.
ZH: 有时它会先突破这个高点，或这个高点， （打掉空头的止损）然后反转下跌
12:08 - 12:12
EN: The bulls who bought here, if they buy above the high of this bar,
ZH: 在这里买入的多头，如果他们在这根K线的高点上方买入
12:13 - 12:16
EN: their Actual Risk probably is to below the low of this bar
ZH: 他们的实际风险最多只是到这根K线的低点
12:16 - 12:20
EN: because you don’t know what took place as this bar was forming.
ZH: 因为现在无法得知这根K线高低点的形成顺序
12:20 - 12:22
EN: It may’ve triggered the buy.
ZH: 可能是先上涨、触发买单
12:22 - 12:25
EN: It may’ve gone back down to that low and then back up.
ZH: 然后下跌到这个低点，再上涨
12:25 - 12:31
EN: Therefore, the Actual Risk might be to just
ZH: 所以，实际风险最多就是到这根K线的低点， 也就是棕色框框的高度
12:28 - 12:31
EN: below the low of this bar, the height of this brown box.
ZH: 所以，实际风险最多就是到这根K线的低点， 也就是棕色框框的高度
12:31 - 12:34
EN: Here’s one times Actual Risk, here’s two times Actual Risk.
ZH: 一倍实际风险，两倍实际风险
12:34 - 12:39
EN: If you bought here, the market did not go up for two times Actual Risk,
ZH: 如果你在这里买入，市场并没有涨到两倍实际风险
12:39 - 12:42
EN: and that’s the minimum profit objective when you take a trade.
ZH: 而两倍实际风险是交易的最低利润目标
12:42 - 12:45
EN: That’s what you need to make the Trader’s Equation positive,
ZH: 是让数学期望为正、让交易在数学上有意义的最低目标
12:45 - 12:50
EN: and that’s what you need to have a mathematically valid trade.
12:55 - 12:58
EN: Doesn’t matter if you bought this or if you sold that,
ZH: 无论是在这里买入做多，还是在这里卖出做空
12:58 - 13:02
EN: and you just rely on your stops and wait for the breakout.
ZH: 你只需要依赖初始止损，等待突破
13:03 - 13:06
EN: Both are equally valid trades.
ZH: 两者都是合理的交易机会——
13:06 - 13:12
EN: 40% chance of a swing, 60% chance of a small profit or a small loss.
ZH: 40%的概率赚到波段，60%的概率小赚或小亏
Slide 007
Time: 13:15
Bilingual Transcript
13:22 - 13:27
EN: Some bulls will look at this and say, okay,
ZH: 一些多头会想：OK，涨到了抛售高潮的起跌点 （注：这是多头的第1个目标位）
13:24 - 13:27
EN: we rallied to the top of the Sell Climax.
ZH: 一些多头会想：OK，涨到了抛售高潮的起跌点 （注：这是多头的第1个目标位）
13:27 - 13:30
EN: We might be forming a Double Top with the top of the Sell Climax,
ZH: 可能会和起跌点形成双顶
13:30 - 13:36
EN: and we could break down below the neckline of this Double Top and fall
ZH: 然后向下跌破双顶的颈线，继续跌到MM目标位，
13:34 - 13:41
EN: for a Measured Move down, and they might be sufficiently disappointed
ZH: 然后向下跌破双顶的颈线，继续跌到MM目标位， 所以他们会失望地在这根K线下方离场
13:38 - 13:41
EN: to exit below the low of this bar.
ZH: 所以他们会失望地在这根K线下方离场
13:41 - 13:46
EN: They don’t want a pullback; they want the market to quickly go up
ZH: 他们不想看到回调，他们希望市场迅速突破前期的重要高点
13:43 - 13:46
EN: above a significant Lower High.
ZH: 他们不想看到回调，他们希望市场迅速突破前期的重要高点
13:48 - 13:52
EN: If a trader did buy this, and if he did exit because he was disappointed,
ZH: 如果一个多头在这里买入，然后因失望而提前离场
13:52 - 13:54
EN: he can always buy again above a bull bar
ZH: 之后他随时可以再次入场——
13:54 - 13:58
EN: - above these bull bars here, above this bull bar here.
ZH: 在这些阳线上方买入，在这根阳线上方买入
14:00 - 14:04
EN: In general, if I took this buy and I saw these 3 bull bars
ZH: 通常来说，如果我在这里买入做多，然后看到这3根阳线
14:05 - 14:08
EN: and now we have 4 bars closing just about on their highs,
ZH: 总共有5根阳线收在最高
14:08 - 14:09
EN: I would not exit there.
ZH: 我是不会在这里离场的
14:09 - 14:20
EN: I would rely on my stop, just in case we get a sharp selloff
ZH: 我会依赖初始止损，以防市场突然下跌测试前期低点， 形成低点抬高的大反转结构，然后上涨
14:14 - 14:20
EN: that becomes a test of the prior low, a test of the bottom,
ZH: 我会依赖初始止损，以防市场突然下跌测试前期低点， 形成低点抬高的大反转结构，然后上涨
14:18 - 14:20
EN: but forms a Higher Low and then reverses up.
ZH: 我会依赖初始止损，以防市场突然下跌测试前期低点， 形成低点抬高的大反转结构，然后上涨
14:25 - 14:29
EN: Look what happened here when the market reached two times Actual Risk.
ZH: 看看这里发生了什么——当市场涨到两倍实际风险的时候
14:29 - 14:37
EN: There’s a reversal, and that tells you that some of the traders
ZH: 价格下跌了，说明有一些多头，他们根据实际风险的大小
14:32 - 14:37
EN: who took this buy saw that the Actual Risk was here,
ZH: 价格下跌了，说明有一些多头，他们根据实际风险的大小
14:37 - 14:39
EN: and this is two times Actual Risk, and they took profits here.
ZH: 在两倍实际风险的地方止盈了
14:41 - 14:44
EN: Other traders said, okay, it sold off above this high.
ZH: 也有一些交易者认为：在这个高点上方有很多卖盘
14:44 - 14:46
EN: Maybe we’re in a Trading Range,
ZH: 也许这是一个震荡区间
14:46 - 14:48
EN: and if it gets above this high it’ll sell off as well.
ZH: 如果突破这个高点，也会再次下跌
14:49 - 14:52
EN: Some of these bulls will simply change their premise.
ZH: 所以一些多头改变了他们的假设
14:52 - 14:54
EN: They were hoping for a bull trend,
ZH: 之前他们希望会有上涨趋势
14:54 - 14:56
EN: and they don’t like this type of price action.
ZH: 但他们对这些价格行为感到失望
14:56 - 15:04
EN: The breakout bar here is not all that big, and therefore they exit
ZH: 这里的突破也没有那么强势，所以他们会在前期高点止盈， 或者在开始下跌的时候立刻离场
15:00 - 15:04
EN: at this high or as soon as it starts to turn down.
ZH: 这里的突破也没有那么强势，所以他们会在前期高点止盈， 或者在开始下跌的时候立刻离场
15:04 - 15:09
EN: Many different reasons for the bulls to exit here – and for the bears to sell.
ZH: 多头在这里离场，存在很多不同的原因——对于空头而言也是一样
15:09 - 15:12
EN: They sold at this high and made money, made a scalp.
ZH: 他们在这个高点挂单做空，剥头皮赚到钱了
15:12 - 15:14
EN: They’ll sell at this high hoping to make money,
ZH: 所以他们会在这个高点继续挂单做空，
15:14 - 15:20
EN: and they might even sell at this high, betting that the breakout
ZH: 甚至在这个高点挂限价卖单，押注多头的突破会失败， 押注做空可以赚钱
15:18 - 15:20
EN: will fail and they’ll be able to make money.
ZH: 甚至在这个高点挂限价卖单，押注多头的突破会失败， 押注做空可以赚钱
15:22 - 15:28
EN: Pretty good bull breakout here, so the bulls who held and relied
ZH: 后续出现了非常不错的多头突破， 所以那些坚定持有、依赖初始止损的多头，
15:26 - 15:31
EN: on their stop now have a reward many times greater than their Actual Risk.
ZH: 后续出现了非常不错的多头突破， 所以那些坚定持有、依赖初始止损的多头， 现在的利润是实际风险的好多倍
15:31 - 15:38
EN: This is one of those 40% of the times
ZH: 这就是那40%的时间之一，利润是实际风险的很多倍
15:34 - 15:38
EN: when the reward is many times greater than the Actual Risk.
ZH: 这就是那40%的时间之一，利润是实际风险的很多倍
15:38 - 15:42
EN: If you take 10 trades like this, you’ll get four like this.
ZH: 如果你做10笔这样的交易，有4笔会是像这个案例一样
15:42 - 15:48
EN: They will more than make up for the six losses
ZH: 而其余6笔交易会是小亏、小赚，互相打平
15:45 - 15:48
EN: or the six small losses or small wins.
ZH: 而其余6笔交易会是小亏、小赚，互相打平
15:50 - 15:56
EN: The bears who sold here, they either get stopped out above here or above here.
ZH: 在这里卖出做空的空头，他们要么在这里止损，要么在这里止损
15:57 - 16:00
EN: Worst case, they put a stop way up here and get stopped out here.
ZH: 最坏的情况，他们把止损放在这个高点上方，然后被打到
16:00 - 16:07
EN: This represents the bears giving up and the bulls becoming confident
ZH: 这代表空头放弃了，所以多头更加有信心， 相信会涨到MM目标位
16:04 - 16:07
EN: that we’re going to rally for a Measured Move up.
ZH: 这代表空头放弃了，所以多头更加有信心， 相信会涨到MM目标位
16:13 - 16:16
EN: For the bulls, this is a strong enough breakout
ZH: 对于多头来说，突破足够强势
16:16 - 16:19
EN: so that we’ll probably get at least a small second leg up.
ZH: 所以至少会有小的第2段上涨
16:19 - 16:22
EN: We pulled back, and this could be the end of the second leg up.
ZH: 回调，这有可能就是第2段上涨，
16:22 - 16:24
EN: This could be the end of the second leg up.
ZH: 或者它有可能就是第2段上涨
16:24 - 16:27
EN: It turns out, this was the second leg up.
ZH: 最终，出现了大的第2段上涨
16:27 - 16:31
EN: Therefore, we have a Double Top – we went up, we went down,
ZH: 之前这里有小双顶——上涨，下跌；
16:31 - 16:33
EN: we went up – and now we have another sell signal bar.
ZH: 再次上涨，然后出现了做空信号K
16:33 - 16:37
EN: It’s reasonable for the bulls to exit all or part here.
ZH: 对于多头来说，在这里止盈部分或全部仓位是合理的
16:37 - 16:42
EN: And then we have a potential Triangle, Final Flag – Leg 1,
ZH: 然后这个三角形是潜在的末端旗形—— 第1段上涨，回调形成小三角形
16:40 - 16:45
EN: pullback to a Triangle, and then Leg 2, a bear bar closing on its low.
ZH: 然后这个三角形是潜在的末端旗形—— 第1段上涨，回调形成小三角形 然后第2段上涨，阴线收在最低
16:45 - 16:47
EN: It’s okay to exit there as well.
ZH: 在它的下方离场也是可以的
16:48 - 16:52
EN: If you’re trading Always In and you exit here or here,
ZH: 如果按照单边趋势的方法交易，你在这里、或这里离场了
16:52 - 16:55
EN: you have to be buying again above a strong bull bar.
ZH: 看到强势的阳线之后，就必须再次买入
16:55 - 16:57
EN: Here’s a bull bar closing near its high.
ZH: 这里有一根阳线收在最高
16:57 - 16:58
EN: Here’s another one.
ZH: 这里又有一根
16:58 - 17:00
EN: So you’d buy above that bar.
ZH: 可以在它的上方买入
17:00 - 17:03
EN: Or we got a Double Bottom – down, up, down
ZH: 或者，这是一个双底牛旗——下跌、上涨；下跌，
17:03 - 17:07
EN: - maybe buy above that bar or above these bars for a second leg up.
ZH: 可以在它的上方，或者这些K线的上方买入， 押注会有第2段上涨
17:08 - 17:12
EN: The bears who did take shorts here – I would not; the channel is too tight
ZH: 那些在这里做空的空头——我不会做空，因为上涨通道太窄了
17:12 - 17:17
EN: - if they did take shorts here, they’re going to be exiting on High 2 buy setups.
ZH: ——如果在这里做空了，空头会在高2止损离场
17:17 - 17:20
EN: So High 1, High 2, so they’ll get out there.
ZH: 高1，高2，空头会在这里止损离场
17:20 - 17:24
EN: And you can see the final bears who held through all of this,
ZH: 最后的空头——他们一直做空，
17:24 - 17:27
EN: hoping that we would get some kind of a top and a reversal down,
ZH: 希望会形成某种顶部的结构，然后反转下跌
17:27 - 17:30
EN: they gave up here above this bull bar.
ZH: 他们最终在这里，或这根阳线放弃了
17:33 - 17:39
EN: End of the day, reasonable to take profits
ZH: 在收盘前1分钟，或者前几秒钟止盈是合理的
17:37 - 17:39
EN: with a minute to go or even seconds to go.
ZH: 在收盘前1分钟，或者前几秒钟止盈是合理的
Slide 008
Time: 17:45
Bilingual Transcript
17:49 - 17:50
EN: We’re clearly in a Trading Range.
ZH: 市场显然处于震荡区间
17:51 - 17:55
EN: Relatively big legs, and a pullback can be very deep.
ZH: 波段比较大，可能会出现很深的回调
17:55 - 18:00
EN: This is a minor reversal, so probably a bull leg
ZH: 它只是小反转，所以这段上涨很可能会发展成震荡区间
17:58 - 18:00
EN: in what will become a Trading Range.
ZH: 它只是小反转，所以这段上涨很可能会发展成震荡区间
18:00 - 18:05
EN: If you’re buying for any reason – if you’re buying up there,
ZH: 如果你买入了——不管是追涨，还是在下方逢低买入
18:03 - 18:08
EN: you’re buying down here – you can get many legs
ZH: 如果你买入了——不管是追涨，还是在下方逢低买入 你可能要经历好多次对前期低点的测试
18:05 - 18:08
EN: that test very close to the bottom of the range.
ZH: 你可能要经历好多次对前期低点的测试
18:08 - 18:12
EN: Sometimes it’ll even break below the bottom of the range and then reverse up.
ZH: 有时甚至会略微跌破前期低点，然后再反转上涨
18:12 - 18:16
EN: If you’re buying for any reason, it’s usually better to use a wide stop
ZH: 对于多头而言，最好使用较宽的初始止损
18:16 - 18:17
EN: below the bottom of the range.
ZH: 把止损放在区间的底部下方
18:19 - 18:23
EN: Also, it’s better to be trading small, especially if you bought high.
ZH: 而且，最好用小仓位交易，尤其是追涨的时候
18:23 - 18:27
EN: For example, if you bought up here or up here and your stop is further
ZH: 例如，如果你在这里或这里买入，
18:27 - 18:31
EN: than you’re comfortable having it be, it’s better to trade small.
ZH: 止损距离可能超过了你的舒适区，那么最好小仓位交易
18:31 - 18:36
EN: You don’t want your loss on any trade to be bigger
ZH: 风险不能超过平时其它的交易
18:34 - 18:36
EN: than a loss on any other trade.
ZH: 风险不能超过平时其它的交易
18:41 - 18:48
EN: Some bulls who bought here were really disappointed by the size
ZH: 一些在这里买入的多头看到大阴线， 看到反转上涨没有那么强势，他们感到很失望
18:43 - 18:48
EN: of this selloff, and the reversal up was not all that strong.
ZH: 一些在这里买入的多头看到大阴线， 看到反转上涨没有那么强势，他们感到很失望
18:48 - 18:50
EN: They would therefore think about getting out.
ZH: 因此他们会考虑提前离场
18:50 - 18:58
EN: We have a Double Top, we have a Low 2, and they might conclude
ZH: 比如在双顶，也就是低2离场； 他们认为这更像是震荡区间，而不是上涨趋势的开始
18:54 - 18:58
EN: that it’s more of a Trading Range than the start of a bull trend,
ZH: 比如在双顶，也就是低2离场； 他们认为这更像是震荡区间，而不是上涨趋势的开始
18:58 - 19:03
EN: and they might wait and enter later – for example, up here or up here.
ZH: 然后等待重新入场的机会——比如这里，或这里
19:09 - 19:12
EN: Some bulls who bought here, if they’re sufficiently disappointed,
ZH: 一些在这里买入的多头，如果非常失望的话，
19:13 - 19:17
EN: will buy lower, scaling in, and then they’ll simply try to get out breakeven.
ZH: 他们会逢低加仓，买入更多， 然后尝试打平离场
19:17 - 19:20
EN: They might buy here and then maybe buy a point below,
ZH: 比如，在这里买入，然后在下方1个点加仓，
19:20 - 19:22
EN: and then when it gets back to their first price,
ZH: 当市场回到他们的初始入场价格时，
19:22 - 19:26
EN: get out breakeven on their first entry
ZH: 初始仓位打平，加仓的部分赚到了1个点的、剥头皮
19:24 - 19:26
EN: and then with a scalp profit on their second.
ZH: 初始仓位打平，加仓的部分赚到了1个点的、剥头皮
19:26 - 19:28
EN: In other words, they’re changing their premise.
ZH: 换句话说，他们改变了入场前的假设
19:29 - 19:34
EN: They were hoping for a bull trend and now they’re getting a continuation
ZH: 之前他们希望会有上涨趋势， 但现在却是不断延续的震荡区间
19:33 - 19:42
EN: of this Trading Range, and they bought expecting a bull trend,
ZH: 之前他们希望会有上涨趋势， 但现在却是不断延续的震荡区间 他们买入时的前提是：会反转成为上涨趋势； 但反转没有发生，而是变成了震荡区间
19:36 - 19:42
EN: and now they’ve concluded that it’s not about
ZH: 他们买入时的前提是：会反转成为上涨趋势； 但反转没有发生，而是变成了震荡区间
19:38 - 19:42
EN: to become a bull trend and it’s still a Trading Range.
ZH: 他们买入时的前提是：会反转成为上涨趋势； 但反转没有发生，而是变成了震荡区间
19:42 - 19:44
EN: A lot of the bulls will just get out and wait.
ZH: 所以很多多头会提前离场，然后等待（再次入场的机会）
Slide 009
Time: 19:50
Bilingual Transcript
19:54 - 19:56
EN: Different ways to scale in, as I said.
ZH: 有很多不同的加仓方法
19:56 - 20:00
EN: If you bought here and you held and relied on your stop,
ZH: 如果你在这里买入、持有，依赖初始止损
20:00 - 20:03
EN: you might buy more the size of a scalp lower.
ZH: 你可以逢低买入更多
20:03 - 20:07
EN: If you’re scalping for 1 point, for example, you buy here
ZH: 例如，如果要做1个点的剥头皮交易—— 初始在这里买入
20:07 - 20:10
EN: and then you buy more 1 point lower, and then you decide:
ZH: 然后在下方1个点加仓，此时需要决定：
20:10 - 20:14
EN: am I going to convert this to a scalp and get out breakeven on my first entry
ZH: 是否把这笔交易（从波段）变成剥头皮， 在初始入场价格离场，
20:14 - 20:18
EN: when it gets back to my first entry, and with a 1 point profit here?
ZH: 初始仓位打平，加仓的部分赚1个点
20:19 - 20:23
EN: Or am I going to hold onto my position for a swing up?
ZH: 还是说，继续持有，坚持做波段交易？
20:23 - 20:27
EN: Or am I going to get out of part of my position here
ZH: 又或者，在这里止盈一部分——
20:27 - 20:31
EN: - and then I’ve lowered my entry price, so I bought here, I bought more here.
ZH: 这样可以降低持仓成本—— 一开始在这里买入，然后在下方加仓
20:31 - 20:35
EN: When it gets back to my first entry price, I sell, and now I’m long from here.
ZH: 回到初始入场价格的时候，把初始仓位卖出（打平）， 现在等于我是从这里买入的（成本降低了1个点）
20:41 - 20:43
EN: Traders can see this as a Triangle.
ZH: 可以把它看作一个三角形
20:43 - 20:47
EN: We’re getting Higher Lows and Lower Highs, and now we’re getting another entry.
ZH: 低点抬高，高点抬高，现在又出现了一个做多入场点
20:47 - 20:49
EN: We have a small Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 这是一个小的双底牛旗
20:51 - 20:53
EN: Another bar closing on its high.
ZH: 又一根阳线收在最高
20:53 - 20:56
EN: A trader, if he did get out, he could buy again here,
ZH: 如果一个多头刚才提前离场了，他可以在这里再次买入
20:56 - 21:00
EN: arguing we still have the Higher Low Major Trend Reversal and we’re also
ZH: 因为低点抬高的大反转结构仍然有效，
21:00 - 21:04
EN: in a Triangle, and we’re getting a lot of bull bars closing on their highs.
ZH: 而且现在是一个三角形（突破模式） 有很多阳线收在最高
21:04 - 21:05
EN: Pretty good Buying Pressure.
ZH: 这是相当不错的买压（更有可能向上突破）
21:05 - 21:10
EN: Maybe it’s slightly better than 50/50 chance that we’ll get the bull reversal.
ZH: 也许向上突破的概率大于50%
21:11 - 21:14
EN: A trader does not take all of these buys.
ZH: 并不是让你在所有这些地方都买入
21:14 - 21:16
EN: He doesn’t buy here, here, here, here, here.
ZH: 不是让你在这里、这里、这里、这里、这里全都买入
21:17 - 21:19
EN: He’ll take one or two buys.
ZH: 而是选择一两个入场点
21:19 - 21:24
EN: He doesn’t want to be accumulating a lot of entries at the same price.
ZH: 在同一价格不断加仓，就失去了加仓的意义 （注：加仓需要隔开一定距离）
21:24 - 21:31
EN: Some traders will buy here and buy more as the trend goes his way
ZH: 一些交易者买入之后，可能会盈利加仓，也可能会亏损加仓
21:28 - 21:31
EN: or buy more as the trend goes against him,
ZH: 一些交易者买入之后，可能会盈利加仓，也可能会亏损加仓
21:31 - 21:35
EN: but usually he’s not going to keep adding on at the same price.
ZH: 但不会在相同的价格一直加仓
Slide 010
Time: 21:40
Bilingual Transcript
21:44 - 21:49
EN: For the bulls, we have a Higher Low, we have a Higher Low,
ZH: 对于多头来说，低点抬高、抬高、抬高、抬高
21:46 - 21:49
EN: we have a Higher Low, we have a Higher Low.
ZH: 对于多头来说，低点抬高、抬高、抬高、抬高
21:49 - 21:53
EN: The bulls see this as a bull trend, even though at this point
ZH: 多头把它看作是上涨趋势
21:53 - 21:55
EN: we do not yet have a strong breakout.
ZH: 尽管此时还没有出现强势的突破
21:55 - 22:00
EN: And after each strong breakout, especially above prior highs,
ZH: 在强势突破之后，尤其是突破前期高点之后，
22:00 - 22:03
EN: traders will start to trail stops to reduce their risk.
ZH: 多头会开始抬高止损，来降低自己的风险
22:06 - 22:11
EN: We broke out here, closed above the top of the past 20 or 30 bars.
ZH: 这里突破了，收盘价高于过去20~30根K线的最高点
22:11 - 22:17
EN: It’s reasonable to tighten your stop from below here to this Higher Low here,
ZH: 此时把止损从这个低点，抬高到这个低点下方是合理的
22:17 - 22:20
EN: and after maybe this breakout or this breakout for sure,
ZH: 在这个突破，或者这个突破之后，
22:20 - 22:24
EN: you trail your stop either below here or below here.
ZH: 可以把止损抬高到这里，或者这个低点下方
22:29 - 22:31
EN: Another strong breakout at the end of the day.
ZH: 尾盘再次强势地上涨
22:31 - 22:36
EN: Traders would trail their stop here, planning to get out right before the close.
ZH: 多头会把止损抬高到这里，计划在收盘前止盈离场
22:43 - 22:47
EN: What happens if your stop gets hit? Let’s say the market’s right here,
ZH: 如果止损被打到了该怎么办？假设涨到这里之后，
22:47 - 22:51
EN: and then the market falls below here, or if you had a stop here.
ZH: 下跌打掉了这里，或这里的止损
22:51 - 22:52
EN: What happens?
ZH: 说明什么？
22:53 - 22:55
EN: Then you’re no longer making Higher Lows.
ZH: 说明低点不再抬高
22:55 - 22:57
EN: You’re getting a Lower Low.
ZH: 低点降低了
22:57 - 23:00
EN: Your premise of a bull trend is no longer valid.
ZH: 上涨趋势的前提不再有效
23:00 - 23:03
EN: You bought on the belief that you were buying in a bull trend.
ZH: 买入做多的前提是，市场处于上涨趋势
23:04 - 23:07
EN: Therefore, if it falls below a significant Higher Low,
ZH: 因此，如果重要的低点被跌破
23:08 - 23:12
EN: your trade is no longer what you thought it was, and you just get out.
ZH: 你的前提就不再成立，所以应该离场、接受亏损
23:11 - 23:12
EN: You just take the loss.
ZH: 你的前提就不再成立，所以应该离场、接受亏损
23:12 - 23:16
EN: The bull trend needs Higher Lows – major Higher Lows.
ZH: 上涨趋势需要重要的低点不断抬高
23:16 - 23:20
EN: Minor Higher Lows like this are not important.
ZH: 像这些次要的低点无所谓
23:20 - 23:23
EN: You can see we fell below that low, yet we still continued higher.
ZH: 可以看到，尽管那个次要低点被跌破了，但仍然继续上涨
23:23 - 23:25
EN: But major Higher Lows are.
ZH: 关键是那些重要的低点
23:25 - 23:29
EN: The market needs to keep making higher major lows.
ZH: 重要的低点需要不断抬高
Slide 011
Time: 23:35
Bilingual Transcript
23:38 - 23:43
EN: This is common, if you take a buy,
ZH: 这经常会发生——买入之后，剧烈反转下跌，跌破了入场价
23:40 - 23:43
EN: to get a very strong reversal down below the entry price.
ZH: 这经常会发生——买入之后，剧烈反转下跌，跌破了入场价
23:49 - 23:53
EN: It traps the weak bulls out, and it also traps some weak bears in.
ZH: 弱多头会被吓走，弱空头会入场、被套牢
23:53 - 23:57
EN: They’ll say “Oh wow, look at that.”
ZH: 他们会说：“哇！均线附近，强势反转下跌！
23:54 - 23:57
EN: A big reversal up and down at the Moving Average.
ZH: 他们会说：“哇！均线附近，强势反转下跌！
23:57 - 24:00
EN: We’re getting Lower Highs, and now we have a follow-through bar.
ZH: 高点不断降低，而且还有跟随的阴线。”
24:00 - 24:04
EN: But you’re selling at the bottom of a 40 bar Trading Range.
ZH: 然而，你卖在震荡区间的底部
24:04 - 24:06
EN: That is a low probability bet.
ZH: 这么做的胜率很低
24:07 - 24:11
EN: More likely bulls will buy these closes and put a stop down here,
ZH: 会有很多多头在大阴线的收盘买入，把止损放在下方
24:11 - 24:14
EN: betting that the bear leg will be a bear leg in a Trading Range
ZH: 押注这只是震荡区间，或上涨趋势中的下跌波段
24:14 - 24:18
EN: or in a bull trend, and not the start of a bear trend.
ZH: 而不是更强的下降趋势的开始
Slide 012
Time: 24:20
Bilingual Transcript
24:31 - 24:35
EN: The market fell below the entry price; however,
ZH: 市场跌破了入场价（第1次可以接受）
24:35 - 24:39
EN: the bulls do not want it going down below that entry price twice.
ZH: 但多头不希望它第2次跌破那个入场价
24:39 - 24:42
EN: After the bull trend resumes either here or here,
ZH: 当上涨趋势继续，涨到这里或这里之后，
24:42 - 24:45
EN: they do not want it to fall back below that price.
ZH: 多头不希望市场再次跌到入场价的下方
24:45 - 24:50
EN: Usually if it does, you have to question your premise that it’s a bull trend.
ZH: 如果真的跌下来了，那么你就必须质疑上涨趋势的这个前提
24:54 - 24:59
EN: You can see we dipped below the entry price again here and again here,
ZH: 这里和这里，曾经再度跌破入场价
24:59 - 25:04
EN: but this was not a strong enough reversal up yet for the bulls
ZH: 但这个上涨并没有那么强势 （注：还没有明显进入上涨趋势）
25:04 - 25:07
EN: to say that it should no longer fall below the entry price.
ZH: 多头此时还不会认为入场价不应该被跌破
25:07 - 25:09
EN: Maybe here, and certainly here.
ZH: 但在这里，这里
25:09 - 25:13
EN: At this point you certainly don’t want it falling back below your entry price,
ZH: 多头肯定不希望市场跌回到入场价的下方
25:13 - 25:16
EN: and therefore when the market breaks out here,
ZH: 因此，当价格在这里突破之后，
25:16 - 25:19
EN: you can put your stop here and no lower than below here.
ZH: 你可以把止损移动到这里，最多放在这里 （注：再低就没有必要了）
25:24 - 25:28
EN: I began by talking about how there cannot be a perfect trade.
ZH: 这节课我先讲了不存在完美的交易机会
Slide 013
Time: 25:25
Bilingual Transcript
25:29 - 25:42
EN: Major Trend Reversals have a probability of only 40%
ZH: 大反转只有40%的概率可以赚到波段交易—— 持续超过20根K线，利润至少是实际风险的两倍
25:34 - 25:42
EN: that you’re going to get a swing trade, a trade lasting 20 or more bars
ZH: 大反转只有40%的概率可以赚到波段交易—— 持续超过20根K线，利润至少是实际风险的两倍
25:38 - 25:42
EN: with a reward at least twice as big as your Actual Risk
ZH: 大反转只有40%的概率可以赚到波段交易—— 持续超过20根K线，利润至少是实际风险的两倍
25:42 - 25:44
EN: - usually many times bigger than your Actual Risk.
ZH: ——通常是实际风险的很多很多倍
25:49 - 25:50
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
25:50 - 25:54
EN: This is the third of four videos on trading Major Trend Reversal Bottoms.
ZH: 底部大反转的第3节课，就先讲到这里
25:54 - 25:57
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程