al-brooks-course
41B - Trading Breakouts
Raw transcript and slide notes for 41B - Trading Breakouts.
Overview
- Slides: 26
- Transcript segments: 617
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课
00:05 - 00:09
EN: This is the second of four videos on trading breakouts.
ZH: 这是如何交易突破行情的第2节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:11
Bilingual Transcript
00:13 - 00:17
EN: I want to emphasize the importance of using swing stops.
ZH: 我想强调使用波段止损位的重要性
00:17 - 00:22
EN: At some point a breakout has pullbacks, and it then enters a channel.
ZH: 在某个时刻，突破结束、开始回调，然后进入通道
00:23 - 00:25
EN: Once it enters a channel, you trade it differently.
ZH: 一旦进入通道，就要以不同的方法去交易
00:27 - 00:34
EN: A breakout often follows a trap – a move that you think is good
ZH: 突破往往发生在陷阱之后——看起来不错的趋势， 突然反转进入相反的方向
00:31 - 00:34
EN: and then the market reverses and goes the opposite way.
ZH: 突破往往发生在陷阱之后——看起来不错的趋势， 突然反转进入相反的方向
00:35 - 00:39
EN: Sometimes there’s an advantage to entering on a smaller timeframe.
ZH: 有时候在较小的时间周期入场是有优势的
00:39 - 00:41
EN: You can reduce your risk.
ZH: 可以减少风险
00:41 - 00:44
EN: Most traders should stick with a single timeframe.
ZH: 但大部分交易者应该始终用单一的时间周期交易
Slide 002
Time: 00:46
Bilingual Transcript
00:49 - 00:51
EN: Very strong bull breakout.
ZH: 非常强的多头突破
00:54 - 01:01
EN: We have two small pushes down – Leg 1, bull tried to resume
ZH: 两段小的下跌——1，多头尝试恢复（这里是高1买入点）， 然后是第2段下跌
00:59 - 01:01
EN: (that’s the High 1 buy) and then a second leg down,
ZH: 两段小的下跌——1，多头尝试恢复（这里是高1买入点）， 然后是第2段下跌
01:01 - 01:05
EN: and now a decent bull inside bar for a buy signal bar.
ZH: 然后出现了一根不错的多头孕线作为做多信号K线
01:05 - 01:08
EN: A test of the breakout point.
ZH: 突破回测
01:08 - 01:11
EN: It’s a good High 2 bull flag, and it’s a reasonable place to buy.
ZH: 这是一个不错的高2牛旗，是合理的买入点
01:14 - 01:19
EN: You have a decent buy setup, a strong buy signal bar.
ZH: 所以是很好的做多机会，做多信号K也很好
01:19 - 01:24
EN: It’s reasonable to put your stop just below the low of the pullback.
ZH: 把止损放在回调的最低点下方是合理的
01:28 - 01:32
EN: However, if you want a higher probability, you have to use a wider stop,
ZH: 但是，如果你想要更高的胜率，就必须使用较宽的止损
01:32 - 01:35
EN: like maybe below the bottom of the breakout
ZH: 比如放在突破的起涨点下方
01:35 - 01:37
EN: or below the bottom of the entire bull trend.
ZH: 或者整个上涨趋势的起涨点下方
01:38 - 01:41
EN: If you think about it, this could easily have a third push down
ZH: 想一下就知道，这很容易会有第3段回调
01:41 - 01:46
EN: - one, pullback, two, pullback, three – and become a Wedge bull flag.
ZH: ——1，反弹；2，反弹；3——形成一个楔形牛旗
01:46 - 01:53
EN: And therefore, the probability using this stop
ZH: 所以这里使用窄止损会让胜率变低
01:50 - 01:53
EN: is not necessarily as high as it could be.
ZH: 所以这里使用窄止损会让胜率变低
01:53 - 01:55
EN: A better stop is here or here.
ZH: 更好的选择是这里或这里
02:00 - 02:07
EN: Because you’re buying a High 2 bull flag, the first pullback
ZH: 由于这是强上涨趋势的第1次回调， 你在高2牛旗入场，而且信号K很好
02:03 - 02:07
EN: in a strong bull trend, and you have a good buy signal bar,
ZH: 由于这是强上涨趋势的第1次回调， 你在高2牛旗入场，而且信号K很好
02:07 - 02:09
EN: the probability is high that you’re going to make money.
ZH: 所以赚钱的概率很高
02:09 - 02:14
EN: And when that’s the case, you can take profits at one times your Actual Risk.
ZH: 在这种情况下，你可以在1倍实际风险的地方止盈
02:14 - 02:18
EN: Whenever the probability of making money is 60% or higher,
ZH: 只要赚钱的概率有60%或更高
02:18 - 02:24
EN: the Trader’s Equation is positive if you simply take profits
ZH: 在1倍实际风险止盈的数学期望就是正的
02:22 - 02:24
EN: at one times your Actual Risk.
ZH: 在1倍实际风险止盈的数学期望就是正的
02:27 - 02:31
EN: Here, if you bought above the high of this bar, you get filled here
ZH: 这里，如果你在这根K线的高点上方挂突破买单， 订单会在这里成交
02:31 - 02:36
EN: - your Actual Risk is to just below the low
ZH: 实际风险就是在入场K线的低点下方，只有2 ticks
02:33 - 02:36
EN: of your entry bar, and it’s only 2 ticks.
ZH: 实际风险就是在入场K线的低点下方，只有2 ticks
02:36 - 02:39
EN: Theoretically, since the probability of making money is high,
ZH: 理论上，由于赚钱的概率很高
02:39 - 02:45
EN: you could exit with only 2 ticks profit,
ZH: 你可以只赚2 ticks就离场，数学期望仍然是正的
02:42 - 02:45
EN: and you would have a positive Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 你可以只赚2 ticks就离场，数学期望仍然是正的
02:45 - 02:53
EN: If you took that trade 100 times and you managed it properly,
ZH: 如果你做了100笔这样的交易，管理得当、没有下错单， 最终的结果会是盈利的
02:49 - 02:53
EN: placed your orders correctly, you would end up with a profit.
ZH: 如果你做了100笔这样的交易，管理得当、没有下错单， 最终的结果会是盈利的
02:53 - 02:55
EN: A high probability of making a profit.
ZH: 总体盈利的概率非常高
Slide 003
Time: 03:00
Bilingual Transcript
03:01 - 03:08
EN: High probability, it’s always mathematically acceptable
ZH: 如果胜率很高，在1倍实际风险止盈的数学期望永远是可以接受的
03:05 - 03:08
EN: to take profits at one times your Actual Risk.
ZH: 如果胜率很高，在1倍实际风险止盈的数学期望永远是可以接受的
03:14 - 03:19
EN: As I discuss in other videos, the minimum scalp in the Emini is 4 ticks.
ZH: 但是我在之前的课程中有提到，ES剥头皮的最小目标是4 ticks
03:19 - 03:23
EN: You should never be going for a profit of less than 4 ticks,
ZH: 你绝不应该追求小于4 ticks的利润
03:23 - 03:25
EN: which is two times your Actual Risk.
ZH: ——这里4 ticks是实际风险的两倍
03:30 - 03:34
EN: The problem with taking a profit that’s too small is you have to be perfect,
ZH: 利润太小的问题是，你必须做到完美
03:34 - 03:39
EN: and you have to be perfect all the time because small mistakes
ZH: 你必须一直完美，因为如果利润很小，
03:39 - 03:46
EN: and even infrequent mistakes can erase many profitable trades
ZH: 其实是很小、很偶尔的失误，都会抹掉很多笔交易的利润
03:45 - 03:46
EN: when the profit is small.
ZH: 其实是很小、很偶尔的失误，都会抹掉很多笔交易的利润
Slide 004
Time: 03:50
Bilingual Transcript
03:51 - 03:56
EN: I want to say one other thing about going
ZH: 仅仅追求数学上的最低目标是不够的
03:54 - 03:56
EN: for something that’s mathematically acceptable.
ZH: 仅仅追求数学上的最低目标是不够的
03:57 - 04:02
EN: Just because it meets the minimum requirements for a positive Trader’s Equation,
ZH: 勉强符合数学期望为正的最低要求
04:02 - 04:05
EN: does not mean that it’s the best thing to do.
ZH: 往往不是最好的选择
04:05 - 04:11
EN: There are very few things in life where choosing to go
ZH: 生活中的任何方面，追求最低目标几乎都不是最佳选择
04:09 - 04:11
EN: for the minimum is the right choice.
ZH: 生活中的任何方面，追求最低目标几乎都不是最佳选择
04:11 - 04:13
EN: There’s almost always a better choice.
ZH: 总是有更好的做法
04:13 - 04:16
EN: And when you have a strong bull trend like this
ZH: 当你看到一个这么强的上涨趋势时
04:16 - 04:18
EN: - the breakout is 10 points or more tall
ZH: ——突破高度有10个点甚至更多
04:18 - 04:22
EN: - going for a 1 point scalp is probably a bad choice.
ZH: 只追求1个点的剥头皮利润是糟糕的选择
04:22 - 04:27
EN: You’re probably going to get a rally that’s equal to a Measured Move,
ZH: 因为大概率会继续上涨到MM目标位——
04:27 - 04:31
EN: maybe based upon the height of the bodies here
ZH: 把这两根大阳线的高度，甚至是整个波段的高度往上翻一倍
04:29 - 04:31
EN: or maybe based upon the height of the bull leg.
ZH: 把这两根大阳线的高度，甚至是整个波段的高度往上翻一倍
04:31 - 04:36
EN: Probably means 60%, so 60% chance the market’s going up here.
ZH: 大概率的意思是60%，所以市场有60%的概率会上涨到这里
04:36 - 04:41
EN: Does it make sense to take a 1 point profit and exit right here? Of course not.
ZH: 在这里赚1个点就离场合理吗？当然不合理
04:44 - 04:46
EN: The open of the first bar of the breakout,
ZH: 从突破第1根K线的开盘价，
04:46 - 04:48
EN: the close of the second bar of the breakout
ZH: 到突破第2根K线的收盘价
04:48 - 04:52
EN: - 60% chance the market is going to reach there before it gets here,
ZH: 60%的概率会涨到MM目标位，而不是打掉止损
04:53 - 04:56
EN: and therefore exiting with 1 point is a bad decision.
ZH: 所以只赚1个点是很糟糕的决定
04:56 - 05:00
EN: You have a 60% chance of making many times more points.
ZH: 有60%的概率可以赚10个点
05:05 - 05:12
EN: If you have a limit order to take partial or full profits
ZH: 如果你在MM目标位挂限价卖单，准备止盈部分或全部仓位， 但价格没有到达，你的订单没有成交，
05:07 - 05:12
EN: at this Measured Move target and it does not go above the target
ZH: 如果你在MM目标位挂限价卖单，准备止盈部分或全部仓位， 但价格没有到达，你的订单没有成交，
05:10 - 05:16
EN: and you do not get filled, you can always take profits
ZH: 如果你在MM目标位挂限价卖单，准备止盈部分或全部仓位， 但价格没有到达，你的订单没有成交， 你可以在反转下跌时止盈——在那根K线的低点下方，
05:14 - 05:16
EN: on the reversal down below the low of that bar,
ZH: 你可以在反转下跌时止盈——在那根K线的低点下方，
05:16 - 05:21
EN: or below the low of a bear bar here – or a second reversal down.
ZH: 或者在这根阴线的低点下方，或者在第2次反转下跌的时候卖出
05:21 - 05:24
EN: First reversal down here, bull trend resumes,
ZH: 第1次反转下跌，上涨趋势恢复
05:24 - 05:25
EN: and then we have another bear bar here.
ZH: 然后再次出现了阴线
05:25 - 05:28
EN: That’s another logical place to take profits.
ZH: 那是另一个合理的止盈位置
05:28 - 05:30
EN: However, when the trend is this strong,
ZH: 然而，当趋势如此强劲时
05:30 - 05:33
EN: chances are it’s going to go higher still.
ZH: 很可能会继续上涨
05:39 - 05:43
EN: Let’s say you bought here, and you exited here on the first reversal down.
ZH: 假设你在这里买入，并在第1次反转下跌时在这里离场
05:43 - 05:50
EN: You’d say, huh, that’s 5 points profit and a scalp is 1 or 2 points,
ZH: 心想：“哎呦不错哦，赚到了5个点； 剥头皮的利润是一两个点，波段交易通常大于4个点”
05:48 - 05:50
EN: a swing is 4 or more points.
ZH: 心想：“哎呦不错哦，赚到了5个点； 剥头皮的利润是一两个点，波段交易通常大于4个点”
05:50 - 05:54
EN: In this particular case, I would call that a scalp, even though it’s 5 points.
ZH: 在这个案例中，尽管赚到了5个点，我认为这也只是一笔剥头皮交易
05:54 - 05:57
EN: The day’s range is fairly big.
ZH: 因为当天的振幅相当大
05:57 - 06:00
EN: You’re exiting right after a very strong breakout.
ZH: 你在非常强势的突破之后很快就止盈了
06:00 - 06:02
EN: The odds are high we’re going to get a second leg up.
ZH: 但很大的概率会有第2段上涨
06:02 - 06:06
EN: You’re exiting before there’s even a single pullback.
ZH: 你在还没有看到任何回调的时候就离场了
06:06 - 06:10
EN: I don’t care if you call it a scalp or a swing; in my mind,
ZH: 也许也可以说它是波段交易，但在我看来
06:10 - 06:17
EN: if you’re exiting after a very strong breakout
ZH: 强势突破之后，你在第1次小回调就离场了，这是剥头皮的做法 （注：剥头皮不能接受利润回撤，不接受回调）
06:13 - 06:17
EN: on the first minor pullback, that’s scalping type of trading.
ZH: 强势突破之后，你在第1次小回调就离场了，这是剥头皮的做法 （注：剥头皮不能接受利润回撤，不接受回调）
Slide 005
Time: 06:20
Bilingual Transcript
06:24 - 06:26
EN: Let’s say you happen to buy the close up here.
ZH: 假设你不巧买在最高的收盘价
06:26 - 06:28
EN: You may have bought here and taken profits,
ZH: 也许你之前在这里买入，然后止盈
06:28 - 06:31
EN: you may have bought here, and maybe you’re buying more.
ZH: 接着在这里买入，又在这里买入
06:31 - 06:33
EN: But let’s say you buy this close for any reason.
ZH: 我们假设说，因为某个原因，你正好追涨在最高价
06:36 - 06:40
EN: Your stop should always be below the bottom of the most recent strong bull leg.
ZH: 初始止损总是应该放在最近一次强势上涨的起涨点下方
06:40 - 06:43
EN: We have a strong breakout to a new high.
ZH: 这里强势突破创新高
06:43 - 06:45
EN: This is a major Higher Low.
ZH: 它是重要的低点
06:45 - 06:49
EN: As long as the market does not pull back below that low,
ZH: 只要市场没有回调到那个低点的下方
06:49 - 06:53
EN: the premise of a bull trend is still valid, and therefore if you’re buying this,
ZH: 上涨趋势的前提就仍然成立，所以如果你在这里买入
06:53 - 06:58
EN: believing you’re in a bull trend, your stop goes here.
ZH: 认为市场处于上涨趋势，止损就应该放在这里
06:58 - 07:01
EN: You’re only wrong if it gets below this low.
ZH: 只有当它跌破这个低点，才能说明你的前提错了
07:01 - 07:03
EN: If it is in a bull trend, it will not get below that low.
ZH: 如果是一个好的上涨趋势，这个低点就不应该被跌破
07:03 - 07:08
EN: There might be a deep pullback, but if there is, chances are the market
ZH: 可能会有深度回调，但即使是深度回调，
07:08 - 07:12
EN: will bounce back to this level before it gets below that low.
ZH: 大概率也会反弹到前期的高点附近，而不是先跌破这个低点
07:12 - 07:15
EN: If you have that deep pullback, instead of a bull trend,
ZH: 如果真的出现了那样的深度回调，就说明不是上涨趋势
07:15 - 07:17
EN: you’ll have a Trading Range.
ZH: 更像是震荡区间
07:17 - 07:22
EN: If you do get the deep pullback, a lot of traders
ZH: 如果确实深度回调了，很多交易者会在恢复上涨时买入更多
07:19 - 07:22
EN: will buy more on the resumption back up.
ZH: 如果确实深度回调了，很多交易者会在恢复上涨时买入更多
07:25 - 07:32
EN: Let’s say you buy that close and you’re confident that the pullbacks
ZH: 假设它的收盘买入，并且相信这么强势的突破之后，回调幅度会很小
07:29 - 07:32
EN: will be small after such a strong breakout here and here.
ZH: 假设它的收盘买入，并且相信这么强势的突破之后，回调幅度会很小
07:32 - 07:34
EN: You’re not going to be able to buy much lower.
ZH: 多头就不会有低价买入的机会
07:34 - 07:38
EN: Some bulls would buy maybe a couple points below that close,
ZH: 一些多头会在那个收盘价下方几个点挂限价买单
07:38 - 07:41
EN: betting at a minimum that it will get back to that close.
ZH: 押注至少会涨回到那个收盘价
07:45 - 07:48
EN: Some bulls, the bull scalpers, would exit.
ZH: 然后一些多头，那些剥头皮的多头，会离场
07:48 - 07:51
EN: They buy here, they buy more 2 points lower.
ZH: 他们在这里买入，在低2加仓
07:51 - 07:54
EN: It has to get above this close to get out breakeven
ZH: 价格必须超过那个收盘价1个tick， 他们的初始仓位才能顺利打平离场
07:54 - 07:58
EN: on their first entry and with 2 points profit on their second entry.
ZH: 同时加仓的部分可以赚到两个点
07:58 - 07:59
EN: And that’s what happened right here,
ZH: 那就是这里所发生的事
07:59 - 08:02
EN: and you can see the selling at that high close.
ZH: 可以看到，在那个收盘价，有人在卖出
08:04 - 08:08
EN: The market’s clearly still Always In Long even after this bear bar,
ZH: 即使在这根阴线之后，市场仍然处于单边上涨的趋势中
08:08 - 08:11
EN: and therefore swing traders would not exit.
ZH: 所以波段交易者不会离场
08:11 - 08:13
EN: They would continue to hold long.
ZH: 他们会继续持有
Slide 006
Time: 08:15
Bilingual Transcript
08:22 - 08:25
EN: A pullback is a pause in a bull trend.
ZH: 回调是上涨趋势中的暂停
08:25 - 08:29
EN: It usually means that the high of the bar is below the high of the prior bar,
ZH: K线的高点低于前一根K线的高点
08:29 - 08:32
EN: or the low of the bar is below the low of the prior bar.
ZH: K线的低点低于前一根K线的低点
08:32 - 08:34
EN: But that’s not always the case.
ZH: 但并不是绝对
08:39 - 08:42
EN: For example, this is a pullback in the bull trend as well.
ZH: 例如，这也是上涨趋势中的回调
08:42 - 08:45
EN: The market went up and it went down, so a doji bar.
ZH: 市场上涨然后下跌，它是一个十字星
08:45 - 08:47
EN: And here we have an inside bar.
ZH: 这里有一根孕线
08:47 - 08:50
EN: That’s also a pause in this bull trend.
ZH: 这也是上涨趋势中的暂停
08:51 - 08:57
EN: A bear body, even if the market is still going up,
ZH: 阴线，尽管没有跌破前一根K线的最低点，也是上涨趋势中的暂停
08:54 - 08:57
EN: is another pause in a bull trend.
ZH: 阴线，尽管没有跌破前一根K线的最低点，也是上涨趋势中的暂停
08:57 - 09:00
EN: Those are all pullbacks on lower timeframes.
ZH: 在更小的时间周期上，刚才讲的这些都是回调
Slide 007
Time: 09:05
Bilingual Transcript
09:05 - 09:09
EN: I mentioned a moment ago that if a market starts to behave
ZH: 在开始的时候我提到，如果市场开始出现通道的价格行为，
09:09 - 09:12
EN: like it’s in a channel, you have to trade it like a channel,
ZH: 就应该改变交易的方式
09:12 - 09:16
EN: and that is somewhat different from trading it when it’s in a breakout.
ZH: 和突破阶段的交易方式有所不同
Slide 008
Time: 09:17
Bilingual Transcript
09:22 - 09:24
EN: A trend is made up of a couple parts.
ZH: 趋势有几个组成部分
09:24 - 09:27
EN: There’s a strong breakout – here we have a second strong breakout
ZH: 有强势突破——这里有两段强势的突破
09:27 - 09:32
EN: - and then you get a pullback, and then the market starts
ZH: ——然后回调，接着市场开始进入通道，是较弱的上涨趋势
09:29 - 09:32
EN: to channel up in a weaker bull trend.
ZH: ——然后回调，接着市场开始进入通道，是较弱的上涨趋势
09:33 - 09:35
EN: Ultimately it transitions into a Trading Range.
ZH: 最终它会过渡到震荡区间
09:38 - 09:40
EN: Breakout, a very strong bull trend.
ZH: 突破，趋势最强的阶段
09:42 - 09:44
EN: Here we have a second strong breakout,
ZH: 第2次强势的突破
09:46 - 09:49
EN: and then a channel follows a pullback,
ZH: 然后回调、进入通道
09:49 - 09:50
EN: and it’s still a bull trend.
ZH: 此时仍然是上涨趋势
09:50 - 09:52
EN: This channel is very tight.
ZH: 这个通道很窄
09:52 - 09:55
EN: On a higher timeframe chart, it would be a breakout as well.
ZH: 在较高的时间周期上，它也是突破阶段
09:55 - 09:58
EN: It would look like this, maybe on a 15-minute chart.
ZH: 比如在15分钟图上，它看起来就像是这样
10:03 - 10:06
EN: As soon as there’s a pullback, the channel phase has begun.
ZH: 一旦出现回调，市场就进入了通道阶段
10:06 - 10:09
EN: Here, instead of a channel, we got another breakout.
ZH: 这里没有变成通道，而是再次突破
10:09 - 10:13
EN: We have a pullback here and now we have a channel.
ZH: 在这里回调，现在进入了通道
10:14 - 10:17
EN: We no longer have consecutive big bull trend bars.
ZH: 不再有连续的大阳线
10:17 - 10:19
EN: We have pullbacks every few bars.
ZH: 每隔几根K线就有回调
10:19 - 10:20
EN: We have bear bodies.
ZH: 有一些阴线
10:20 - 10:22
EN: We have bars with tails on top.
ZH: 有明显的上影线
10:22 - 10:24
EN: That is a weaker bull trend.
ZH: 这是一个相对较弱的上涨趋势
10:24 - 10:28
EN: It’s still a pretty strong bull trend, but it’s certainly less strong
ZH: 它仍然是强上涨趋势，但肯定不像它或者它这么强——
10:28 - 10:35
EN: than this or this, where you have a series of bull bars closing
ZH: 连续的大阳线收在最高，K线之间没有重叠
10:32 - 10:35
EN: on their highs and very little overlap between the bars,
ZH: 连续的大阳线收在最高，K线之间没有重叠
10:35 - 10:38
EN: and the tails on the tops of the bars are small.
ZH: K线顶部的上影线很短
Slide 009
Time: 10:45
Bilingual Transcript
10:48 - 10:51
EN: It’s important to watch the breakout phase.
ZH: 观察突破阶段是很重要的
10:51 - 10:54
EN: You want to see when you think it has ended and has entered a channel,
ZH: 要观察它什么时候结束并进入通道
10:55 - 10:58
EN: because once it has entered a channel, you trade it a little bit differently.
ZH: 因为一旦进入通道阶段，就要稍微调整交易的方式
11:03 - 11:11
EN: Again, instead of consecutive big bull trend bars closing
ZH: 再讲一遍，之前是连续的大阳线收在高位、K线之间没有重叠
11:06 - 11:11
EN: on their highs with very little overlap like this, we’re getting smaller bars,
ZH: 再讲一遍，之前是连续的大阳线收在高位、K线之间没有重叠
11:11 - 11:17
EN: smaller bodies, the tails on top are becoming more prominent,
ZH: 现在K线的体积变小，上影线更加明显，还有好几根阴线
11:14 - 11:17
EN: and we’re also getting several bear bars.
ZH: 现在K线的体积变小，上影线更加明显，还有好几根阴线
11:17 - 11:21
EN: Pullbacks are coming every few bars instead of no pullbacks at all right here.
ZH: 每隔几根K线就会有回调，而不像前面，完全没有回调
11:24 - 11:30
EN: You can see the videos on trading Tight Channels
ZH: 关于通道，在前期窄通道、宽通道的课程中有更多的讲解
11:27 - 11:30
EN: and trading Broad Channels to get more information about channels.
ZH: 关于通道，在前期窄通道、宽通道的课程中有更多的讲解
11:30 - 11:32
EN: This video is about trading breakouts.
ZH: 这节课我们主要讲突破
Slide 010
Time: 11:35
Bilingual Transcript
11:39 - 11:46
EN: Another thing that you’ll notice in channels
ZH: 在通道中你会注意到的另一件事情是：多头开始在前期高点止盈
11:42 - 11:46
EN: is bulls start to take profits at prior highs.
ZH: 在通道中你会注意到的另一件事情是：多头开始在前期高点止盈
11:46 - 11:48
EN: They start to sell at prior highs.
ZH: 他们会在前期高点卖出
11:48 - 11:50
EN: They buy pullbacks instead of at prior highs.
ZH: 他们在回调时买入，而不是在突破时追涨
11:50 - 11:54
EN: Here, they’re buying all the way up, including at the highs.
ZH: 在这里，他们一路买买买，一直追涨
11:54 - 11:57
EN: Here, bulls are starting to take profits at every new high,
ZH: 而这里，多头在每次创新高的时候都卖出止盈
11:57 - 11:58
EN: so you’re getting a pullback.
ZH: 所以造成了价格回调
11:58 - 12:04
EN: In addition, the bears are starting to sell prior highs scaling in higher,
ZH: 另外，空头开始在前期高点卖出做空，并且逢高加仓
12:04 - 12:08
EN: betting that the market will pull back enough
ZH: 押注会有足够大的回调幅度，让他们至少可以赚到剥头皮的利润
12:06 - 12:08
EN: for them to make a profitable scalp.
ZH: 押注会有足够大的回调幅度，让他们至少可以赚到剥头皮的利润
12:08 - 12:13
EN: That’s an important sign that a channel is transitioning into a Trading Range.
ZH: 这是一个重要的信号，表明通道正在过渡到震荡区间
12:13 - 12:18
EN: We do have a bull channel, and it did transition
ZH: 这个上涨通道确实变成了震荡区间，持续了大约30根K线
12:16 - 12:18
EN: into a Trading Range for about 30 bars.
ZH: 这个上涨通道确实变成了震荡区间，持续了大约30根K线
12:18 - 12:24
EN: It was ultimately bull trend resumption,
ZH: 最终上涨趋势继续，但这里在窄震荡区间内横盘了约30根K线
12:21 - 12:24
EN: but it was in a pretty tight range for about 30 bars.
ZH: 最终上涨趋势继续，但这里在窄震荡区间内横盘了约30根K线
12:28 - 12:38
EN: Bears who sold at this high or sold above this bar or sold
ZH: 在这个高点卖出，或在这根K线上方卖出的空头， 能够赚到一两个点的剥头皮利润
12:32 - 12:38
EN: above this bar were able to scalp out with a 1 or 2 point profit down here.
ZH: 在这个高点卖出，或在这根K线上方卖出的空头， 能够赚到一两个点的剥头皮利润
12:38 - 12:46
EN: Therefore, limit order bears, bears selling above bars,
ZH: 当限价单空头——那些逢高挂限价卖单的空头开始赚钱， 通常表明市场即将进入震荡区间——
12:42 - 12:46
EN: are beginning to make money, and that usually leads to a Trading Range
ZH: 当限价单空头——那些逢高挂限价卖单的空头开始赚钱， 通常表明市场即将进入震荡区间——
12:47 - 12:49
EN: - which we have over here for about 30 bars.
ZH: 这里震荡了大约30根K线
12:54 - 12:57
EN: When the bears first sell, they use wide stops,
ZH: 空头在开仓做空之后，会使用较宽的初始止损
12:57 - 13:01
EN: maybe a Measured Move up based upon this rally way up here.
ZH: 比如放在这段上涨高度的MM目标位上方
13:01 - 13:04
EN: They’re never planning to let that stop be hit,
ZH: 空头不打算真的让止损被打掉
13:04 - 13:06
EN: but that’s their initial catastrophic stop.
ZH: 这是他们防止意外的保护性止损
13:07 - 13:09
EN: They sell and they sell more higher.
ZH: 开仓之后，他们逢高加仓卖出更多
13:09 - 13:12
EN: They sell at this high and maybe sell 1 or 2 points higher,
ZH: 他们在这个高点挂限价卖单，然后在上方1或2个点加仓，
13:12 - 13:19
EN: or instead of selling at this high, they start selling 1 or 2 points higher,
ZH: 或者在前期高点没有入场，直接把限价买单挂在上方1或2个点的地方， 追求一两个点的剥头皮利润
13:17 - 13:19
EN: looking for a 1 or 2 point scalp.
ZH: 或者在前期高点没有入场，直接把限价买单挂在上方1或2个点的地方， 追求一两个点的剥头皮利润
13:19 - 13:21
EN: They’re looking for quick profits.
ZH: 他们想要赚快钱
Slide 011
Time: 13:25
Bilingual Transcript
13:28 - 13:32
EN: As the bull trend weakens, as it matures, it becomes weaker
ZH: 随着趋势的发展，它变得越来越弱
13:32 - 13:34
EN: and transitions more into a Trading Range,
ZH: 然后开始过渡到震荡区间
13:34 - 13:39
EN: it’s important to notice if bears entering with stops can now make money.
ZH: 观察用突破卖单入场的空头能不能赚到钱，是非常重要的 （注：刚才观察的是用限价卖单入场的空头）
13:39 - 13:42
EN: For example, here, maybe a little Final Flag.
ZH: 例如这里，它可能是一个小的末端牛旗
13:42 - 13:44
EN: A bear bar closing on its low.
ZH: 有阴线收在最低
13:44 - 13:47
EN: Some bears might short that on a stop below that low,
ZH: 一些空头会在它的下方用突破卖单入场做空
13:49 - 13:52
EN: and if they’re scalping, they only need 1 point.
ZH: 如果目标是剥头皮，只需要赚1个点就够了
13:52 - 13:55
EN: This did fall far enough for them to make a 1 point scalp,
ZH: 这里的下跌幅度确实足以让他们赚到1个点 （注：至少下跌了5个ticks）
13:55 - 13:58
EN: and that is further evidence that the bull trend is weakening.
ZH: 进一步表明了上涨趋势在变弱
13:59 - 14:03
EN: Initially the bears could only make a profit
ZH: 一开始，空头只能逢高挂限价卖单做空才能赚得到钱
14:01 - 14:03
EN: by selling with limit orders above bars.
ZH: 一开始，空头只能逢高挂限价卖单做空才能赚得到钱
14:04 - 14:08
EN: If they start making money with stops selling below bars,
ZH: 如果他们在K线下方用突破卖单入场做空
14:08 - 14:11
EN: that requires the market to fall even further.
ZH: 就需要更大的跌幅才能赚到钱
14:11 - 14:15
EN: That is a sign that the bull trend is weakening even further.
ZH: 这是上涨趋势进一步减弱的信号
14:16 - 14:20
EN: Even though we ended up with a channel all day – spike, pullback, channel
ZH: 尽管最终在通道中运行了一整天——急速，回调，通道
14:21 - 14:24
EN: - this is probably soon going to transition into a bigger Trading Range.
ZH: 它大概率很快就会过渡到一个更大的震荡区间
14:24 - 14:27
EN: We don’t know that; we don’t see what tomorrow looks like.
ZH: 不过这里看不到明天会是什么样的行情
14:27 - 14:31
EN: But we’re starting to get Trading Range price action, and you have to assume
ZH: 但这里开始出现震荡区间的价格行为，所以你必须假设，
14:31 - 14:36
EN: the market will become increasingly two-sided as this trend progresses.
ZH: 随着趋势的发展，市场上会出现更多双向交易
14:41 - 14:44
EN: When the market’s rallying like this, it’s Buy The Close.
ZH: 当市场像这样上涨的时候，是买收盘的趋势
14:44 - 14:49
EN: Traders are buying strong bull closes or they’re simply buying at the market.
ZH: 交易者在强势阳线的收盘买入，或者直接市价买入
14:49 - 14:53
EN: However, when you’re starting to get a lot of Trading Range price action,
ZH: 然而，当你开始看到很多震荡区间的价格行为时
14:53 - 14:56
EN: bulls are no longer willing to buy at the close of bars.
ZH: 多头不再愿意在阳线的收盘追涨
14:56 - 14:58
EN: Instead, they look to buy pullbacks.
ZH: 相反，他们等待回调再买入
14:58 - 15:03
EN: They can buy on a reversal up, a resumption of the bull trend,
ZH: 他们会在上涨趋势恢复时买入，比如在这根阳线的上方
15:01 - 15:03
EN: like above this bull bar.
ZH: 他们会在上涨趋势恢复时买入，比如在这根阳线的上方
15:03 - 15:05
EN: You can call this a bull flag, a bear channel.
ZH: 你可以说它是牛旗，因为是下降通道
15:05 - 15:08
EN: Bull flag, a Wedge bull flag, three pushes down
ZH: 牛旗，楔形牛旗，3次向下推动
15:08 - 15:11
EN: one or one, and then two and then three.
ZH: 1，或者1，然后2，然后3
15:11 - 15:12
EN: Decent looking buy signal bar.
ZH: 漂亮的做多信号K线
15:12 - 15:16
EN: They’ll also buy with limit orders below bars, like below this low
ZH: 多头也会在K线下方挂限价买单，比如在这个低点下方
15:16 - 15:20
EN: or below this bar, betting that the bear reversal attempts will fail.
ZH: 或者在这根K线下方，押注空头反转的尝试会失败
15:20 - 15:29
EN: In any case, instead of buying at new highs and at the market
ZH: 总之，多头不再在创新高的时候买入，不再市价追涨， 而是开始等待回调买入的机会
15:25 - 15:29
EN: as the market’s going up, they’re beginning to buy more pullbacks
ZH: 总之，多头不再在创新高的时候买入，不再市价追涨， 而是开始等待回调买入的机会
15:29 - 15:33
EN: and they’re starting to take profits when the market gets up near the prior high
ZH: 而且当市场涨到前期高点附近时，他们开始止盈
15:33 - 15:40
EN: – further evidence that the channel is weakening
ZH: ——进一步说明趋势正在变弱，开始有更多震荡的价格行为
15:37 - 15:40
EN: and beginning to have more Trading Range price action.
ZH: ——进一步说明趋势正在变弱，开始有更多震荡的价格行为
15:46 - 15:50
EN: It’s becoming difficult for the bulls to make money
ZH: 多头赚钱越来越难，而且很难赚到大的利润
15:48 - 15:50
EN: and difficult for them to make much money.
ZH: 多头赚钱越来越难，而且很难赚到大的利润
15:50 - 15:53
EN: For example, if they bought above this bar and got filled here,
ZH: 例如，如果他们在这根K线上方挂突破买单，订单在这里成交
15:53 - 15:58
EN: somewhere in here, they’re getting bad follow-through, dojis at the new high.
ZH: 这里，出现了糟糕的跟随，创新高之后是十字星
15:58 - 16:03
EN: And therefore, the bulls will take quicker profits,
ZH: 所以多头会更快地止盈，只赚一两个点
16:01 - 16:03
EN: like a 1 point profit or a 2 point profit.
ZH: 所以多头会更快地止盈，只赚一两个点
16:03 - 16:05
EN: They’re less willing to swing,
ZH: 不再那么愿意持有做波段
16:05 - 16:08
EN: and they’re scalping a bigger part of their position.
ZH: 更多是在剥头皮赚快钱
16:13 - 16:22
EN: Breakouts sometimes follow a trap, so sometimes the market starts
ZH: 有时突破会出现在陷阱之后—— 市场迅速反转，走出和你预期相反的行情
Slide 012
Time: 16:15
Bilingual Transcript
16:17 - 16:22
EN: to do something and then quickly reverses
ZH: 有时突破会出现在陷阱之后—— 市场迅速反转，走出和你预期相反的行情
16:20 - 16:22
EN: and does the opposite of what you think it will do.
ZH: 有时突破会出现在陷阱之后—— 市场迅速反转，走出和你预期相反的行情
16:23 - 16:25
EN: Some traders get trapped into doing the wrong thing.
ZH: 此时一些交易者就被套牢了
Slide 013
Time: 16:26
Bilingual Transcript
16:33 - 16:34
EN: We have a bear trend.
ZH: 下降趋势
16:34 - 16:37
EN: We’re starting to get some good Buying Pressure and good bull bars.
ZH: 开始看到不错的买压，漂亮的阳线
16:37 - 16:42
EN: Maybe a Wedge – one, two, three – and we have a Double Top bear flag.
ZH: 也许是楔形底——1，2，3——同时也有双顶熊旗
16:42 - 16:45
EN: The market rallied for about 8 or 10 bars.
ZH: 市场反弹了8到10根K线
16:45 - 16:50
EN: Maybe a strong enough minor reversal so that the next reversal up will be major.
ZH: 也许反弹足够强势，下一次可能会形成大反转
16:50 - 16:53
EN: The context is getting good for a reversal up.
ZH: 反转上涨的背景越来越好
16:53 - 16:57
EN: We’re also at the bottom of the bull trend, so a possible big Double Bottom.
ZH: 同时也处于之前上涨趋势的起涨点附近，所以有潜在的大双底结构
17:02 - 17:06
EN: Wedge Bottom above the bottom of this strong rally.
ZH: 在强势上涨的起涨点上方形成了楔形底
17:07 - 17:09
EN: Big tails on the bottoms of bars.
ZH: 一些K线的底部有很长的下影线
17:09 - 17:12
EN: 2 bar reversal, so down and then up, down and then up.
ZH: 双K反转——下跌，上涨；下跌，上涨
17:12 - 17:15
EN: We’re getting buying as the market’s trying to go down.
ZH: 市场在下跌的时候遇到了买盘
17:20 - 17:24
EN: The bears have a Double Top bear flag here, a Low 2 – Low 1, Low 2
ZH: 空头在这里有一个双顶熊旗，即低2——低1，低2
17:24 - 17:27
EN: - and it’s reversing up, so it looks like it’s failing.
ZH: 市场在反转上涨，所以这个熊旗似乎失败了
17:28 - 17:31
EN: Is this a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal?
ZH: 这是低点抬高的大反转吗？
17:31 - 17:35
EN: Well, when I look at that, I probably would call it minor.
ZH: 嗯，根据目前的价格行为，我认为它更有可能是小反转
17:35 - 17:40
EN: We went up for about 8 bars or so, but the leg down was only 3 bars.
ZH: 上涨了大约8根K线，但下跌的部分只有3根K线
17:40 - 17:47
EN: Normally you need more trend resumption down
ZH: 通常在反转上涨之前，结构中需要更多K线
17:44 - 17:47
EN: before you’ll get a trend reversal up.
ZH: 通常在反转上涨之前，结构中需要更多K线
17:48 - 17:51
EN: We have a Double Bottom Higher Low here.
ZH: 低点抬高，小双底
17:51 - 17:57
EN: Some bulls will buy this and take a chance that it will turn
ZH: 一些多头会在这里买入，押注形成大反转， 比如去测试这个楔形通道的最高点
17:54 - 17:57
EN: into a major reversal, maybe test the top of this Wedge.
ZH: 一些多头会在这里买入，押注形成大反转， 比如去测试这个楔形通道的最高点
18:03 - 18:08
EN: We don’t know yet if this is a big minor reversal or a small major reversal.
ZH: 目前不知道它到底是大反转还是小反转
18:09 - 18:11
EN: It’s a reasonable buy.
ZH: 不过这是合理的买点
18:12 - 18:16
EN: The reward, maybe testing up here, is more than twice the risk.
ZH: 利润，也许会涨到这里，大于两倍风险
18:16 - 18:18
EN: The probability might be 40%.
ZH: 胜率是40%
18:20 - 18:26
EN: Now what do you do? We have a strong bear bar, a Low 2 short – Low 1, Low 2.
ZH: 现在怎么办？出现了一根大阴线，是低2做空入场点——低1，低2
18:26 - 18:29
EN: We have a Double Top here, so a bigger Low 1, Low 2.
ZH: 这里有一个双顶，所以还有更大的低1，低2结构
18:39 - 18:42
EN: This is a good setup for the bears.
ZH: 对于空头而言是一个好的入场点
Slide 014
Time: 18:40
Bilingual Transcript
18:42 - 18:46
EN: They have a Double Top bear flag – this high and that high.
ZH: 他们有一个双顶熊旗——这个高点和那个高点
18:46 - 18:49
EN: The first high is actually a Double Top itself,
ZH: 第1个高点实际上本身就是一个小双顶
18:49 - 18:52
EN: and they have a good-looking sell signal bar and it’s a Low 2 here
ZH: 做空信号K很漂亮，而且是低2
18:52 - 18:56
EN: - Low 1, Low 2 – and Double Top, so it’s a bigger Low 1, Low 2.
ZH: ——低1，低2——还有双顶，所以这是一个更大的低1，低2结构
18:56 - 18:59
EN: Maybe it’ll fall below the neckline of the Double Top.
ZH: 如果跌破双顶的颈线——
18:59 - 19:03
EN: Two tops, neckline, down here for a Measured Move.
ZH: 双顶，颈线，继续下跌到MM目标位
19:09 - 19:10
EN: Strong sell setup.
ZH: 很好的做空机会
19:10 - 19:13
EN: Not a particularly strong buy setup.
ZH: 做多就相对没有那么好
19:13 - 19:15
EN: Bulls will exit below that bear bar.
ZH: 一些多头会在这根阴线的下方离场
19:16 - 19:18
EN: The market’s still Always In Short.
ZH: 市场仍然处于下降趋势
19:18 - 19:25
EN: The bulls have not yet done enough to convince traders
ZH: 多头还没有能够掌控市场，无法说服交易者， 市场仍然在空头的掌控之中
19:21 - 19:25
EN: that they have taken control, and therefore the bears are still in control.
ZH: 多头还没有能够掌控市场，无法说服交易者， 市场仍然在空头的掌控之中
19:28 - 19:34
EN: These bulls who bought here have a Low 2
ZH: 之前买入做多的多头，看到了下降趋势中的低2， 而且还有漂亮的做空信号K线
19:31 - 19:34
EN: in a bear trend with a strong sell signal bar.
ZH: 之前买入做多的多头，看到了下降趋势中的低2， 而且还有漂亮的做空信号K线
19:34 - 19:36
EN: They should get out below that bear bar.
ZH: 他们应该在那根阴线的下方离场
19:37 - 19:40
EN: Trading Range, maybe about 15 bars here.
ZH: 震荡区间，这里大约有15根K线
19:40 - 19:42
EN: If you want, you can call this whole thing a Trading Range.
ZH: 你也可以把整个部分看作是震荡区间
19:43 - 19:52
EN: Every bar that gets added to it reduces the probability for the bears,
ZH: 区间中每多一根K线，下降趋势恢复的概率就越小—— 下降趋势，震荡区间，空头想要趋势恢复——
19:47 - 19:52
EN: reduces the probability of trend resumption down – bear trend, Trading Range,
ZH: 区间中每多一根K线，下降趋势恢复的概率就越小—— 下降趋势，震荡区间，空头想要趋势恢复——
19:51 - 19:55
EN: trend resumption down – and it increases the probability of trend reversal up.
ZH: 区间中每多一根K线，下降趋势恢复的概率就越小—— 下降趋势，震荡区间，空头想要趋势恢复—— 同时趋势反转上涨的概率就越来越高
19:56 - 19:59
EN: It’s still better than 50/50 for the bears.
ZH: 对空头而言，胜率仍然大于50%
19:59 - 20:01
EN: The bulls have not yet done enough.
ZH: 因为目前多头还没有做出足够多的努力
20:01 - 20:03
EN: But the probability is getting close.
ZH: 但双方的概率在接近
20:07 - 20:10
EN: What’s the force behind this strong sell signal bar?
ZH: 形成这个大阴线背后的力量是什么？
20:11 - 20:19
EN: Well, if you think about it, it’s good for the bulls
ZH: 实际上，如果仔细思考一下， 制造一个强势的做空信号K，但不让它下方的突破卖单被触发， 对多头而言是有利的
20:14 - 20:19
EN: to create a strong sell signal bar and prevent the sell from triggering.
ZH: 制造一个强势的做空信号K，但不让它下方的突破卖单被触发， 对多头而言是有利的
20:19 - 20:25
EN: And why is that? Because if the bulls create a strong sell signal bar by selling
ZH: 为什么？因为多头可以通过卖出来制造一根大阴线 （注：因为空头被来就在卖出，如果多头也故意卖出，那么一定会是大阴线）
20:25 - 20:30
EN: – right? – their computers can sell and make sure this bar closes on its low.
ZH: ——他们的电脑程序可以大量卖出，确保这根K线收在最低
20:30 - 20:32
EN: They’re creating a strong sell signal bar.
ZH: 他们制造了一个强势的做空信号K线
20:32 - 20:36
EN: Everyone knows that most bulls who bought here will get out below that low.
ZH: 每个人都知道，之前买入的多头，很多都会在大阴线的下方离场
20:37 - 20:42
EN: If they can create a strong sell signal bar
ZH: 然而，如果此时多头大量买入， 阻止了做空信号K线下方的突破卖单被触发
20:40 - 20:45
EN: and prevent the sell from triggering, that would be a sign of strong bulls.
ZH: 然而，如果此时多头大量买入， 阻止了做空信号K线下方的突破卖单被触发 反而就变成了多头强势的信号 （注：大阴线收盘之后大量买入，不让价格跌破它的最低点）
20:45 - 20:48
EN: It’s to their advantage to demonstrate strength,
ZH: 多头需要展现自己的力量
20:48 - 20:53
EN: and one way to demonstrate strength would be to prevent a strong sell setup
ZH: 其中一种方法就是不让做空的机会被触发
20:53 - 20:57
EN: from ever triggering, preventing the market
ZH: 不让价格跌破那根大阴线的最低点
20:54 - 20:57
EN: from falling below that strong bear bar.
ZH: 不让价格跌破那根大阴线的最低点
21:03 - 21:07
EN: So what happens here? We have a strong sell setup with a good sell signal bar.
ZH: 那么这里发生了什么？有好的做空机会，有好的做空信号K线
Slide 015
Time: 21:05
Bilingual Transcript
21:07 - 21:10
EN: Everybody knows the bulls will get out below that bar,
ZH: 所有人都知道多头会在那根K线下方离场
21:10 - 21:12
EN: and the bears will sell below that bar.
ZH: 空头会在那根K线下方入场做空
21:12 - 21:15
EN: But what happens if it does not go below that bar?
ZH: 但如果价格没有跌破信号K线的最低点呢？
21:17 - 21:20
EN: That is a sign that the bears are not strong.
ZH: 那就说明空头并没有那么强壮 （注：连多跌1个tick，让下方的突破卖单被触发都做不到）
21:20 - 21:23
EN: They have a great sell setup, and they could not trigger it.
ZH: 他们有很好的做空机会，但突破卖单却无法触发
21:23 - 21:29
EN: The bulls would get out below that bar, yet the bulls were able
ZH: 一些多头打算在大阴线的下方离场，但其它多头大量买入， 不让价格跌破它的最低点（注：阻止友军逃跑）
21:27 - 21:29
EN: to prevent the market from falling below the low of that bar,
ZH: 一些多头打算在大阴线的下方离场，但其它多头大量买入， 不让价格跌破它的最低点（注：阻止友军逃跑）
21:29 - 21:34
EN: and therefore the bulls did something to prove that they’re strong.
ZH: 所以多头做了一些事情，证明了他们很强壮
21:34 - 21:38
EN: The market got down to the below of that bar on the next bar, but not below.
ZH: 下一根K线跌到了大阴线的最低点，但没有跌破
21:38 - 21:44
EN: The bulls prevented the bears from triggering a sell
ZH: 所以下方的突破卖单都没有触发，防止了其它多头的溃逃
21:41 - 21:44
EN: that would have flushed all the bulls out.
ZH: 所以下方的突破卖单都没有触发，防止了其它多头的溃逃
21:44 - 21:46
EN: Instead, the market went up.
ZH: 没有下跌，而是上涨了
21:46 - 21:49
EN: And the bears who front ran the signal,
ZH: 那些提前入场的空头
21:49 - 21:52
EN: the bears who sold for example at the close of this bear bar,
ZH: 比如那些直接在大阴线收盘卖出的空头
21:52 - 21:56
EN: got trapped into selling what turned out to be a bear trap.
ZH: 现在被这个空头陷阱套牢了
21:59 - 22:08
EN: The bulls who did not yet buy, they’ll buy above the high
ZH: 还没有入场的多头，会在这根大阴线的高点上方买入， 因为他们看到空头正在恐慌地离场
22:04 - 22:08
EN: of this strong bear bar, seeing that the bears are going to panic out.
ZH: 还没有入场的多头，会在这根大阴线的高点上方买入， 因为他们看到空头正在恐慌地离场
22:08 - 22:11
EN: They were selling, trying to create a strong bear flag,
ZH: 空头之前在卖出，尝试形成熊旗
22:11 - 22:18
EN: a Double Top bear flag, expecting traders to sell more to trigger the sell
ZH: 双顶熊旗，他们期待有更多人卖出， 跌破大阴线的最低点，让下方的突破卖单被触发，
22:16 - 22:23
EN: by going below that bear bar – and instead it went above the high
ZH: 双顶熊旗，他们期待有更多人卖出， 跌破大阴线的最低点，让下方的突破卖单被触发， 然而价格向上突破了，所以空头开始放弃
22:19 - 22:23
EN: of the bear bar, and the bears are giving up.
ZH: 然而价格向上突破了，所以空头开始放弃
22:23 - 22:27
EN: Because the bears are giving up, it’s reasonable for the bulls to buy as well.
ZH: 因为空头正在放弃，所以对于多头而言是合理的买入机会
22:27 - 22:31
EN: So if the bulls did not buy here or here, or if they did not buy
ZH: 之前在这里和这里没有入场的多头，
22:31 - 22:38
EN: on that bear close, a lot of bulls will start buying above bars,
ZH: 他们会开始在K线的高点上方买入， 比如在这根阴线的上方，或者在这根回调K线的上方
22:35 - 22:38
EN: like above the bear bar or above this pullback bar.
ZH: 他们会开始在K线的高点上方买入， 比如在这根阴线的上方，或者在这根回调K线的上方
22:43 - 22:46
EN: The bears had a Double Top bear flag.
ZH: 空头之前制造了双顶熊旗
22:46 - 22:49
EN: They were expecting a Measured Move down, maybe based upon the height
ZH: 他们期待向下跌破到MM目标位—— 比如把震荡区间的高度往下翻一倍
22:49 - 22:53
EN: of the Trading Range, maybe from the Double Top to the neckline down.
ZH: 或者从双顶到颈线的高度往下翻一倍
22:53 - 22:56
EN: If you get a bull breakout above a Double Top,
ZH: 然而价格向上突破了双顶
22:56 - 22:58
EN: instead of getting a Measured Move down,
ZH: 所以不是向下跌到MM目标位
22:58 - 23:01
EN: you have to be thinking about a possible Measured Move up.
ZH: 而是要考虑可能会涨到反向的MM目标位
23:01 - 23:08
EN: And when the market gets there, it’s very common for the bulls
ZH: 当市场涨到那里时，通常会有一些多头止盈，导致回调
23:05 - 23:08
EN: to take some profits, and that creates a pullback.
ZH: 当市场涨到那里时，通常会有一些多头止盈，导致回调
23:08 - 23:11
EN: It’s also a test of the top of this Wedge Bottom,
ZH: 同时也是对楔形通道高点的测试
23:11 - 23:14
EN: and that’s another location where bulls will take profits
ZH: 这是另一个多头会在这里止盈的理由
23:14 - 23:17
EN: and aggressive bears will start selling, at least for a scalp.
ZH: 同时激进的空头会开始卖出，至少做一笔剥头皮交易
Slide 016
Time: 23:20
Bilingual Transcript
23:26 - 23:27
EN: Let’s take a look up here.
ZH: 来看一下这里
23:27 - 23:29
EN: We’re in a bull trend and we have a pullback.
ZH: 上涨趋势，回调
23:30 - 23:38
EN: Is it a bear trend at this point? No, it’s about a 50% pullback
ZH: 现在是下降趋势吗？不是，这大约是这段上涨的50%回调， 多头尝试在高1、高2买入
23:34 - 23:38
EN: from this bull breakout, and the bulls are trying to get a High 1, a High 2.
ZH: 现在是下降趋势吗？不是，这大约是这段上涨的50%回调， 多头尝试在高1、高2买入
23:39 - 23:43
EN: A bear breakout, maybe a small second leg down here, so another High 1, High 2.
ZH: 向下跌破，很可能至少会有小的第2段下跌， 所以重新数高1、高2
23:43 - 23:45
EN: It’s still a bull flag.
ZH: 这仍然是一个牛旗
23:46 - 23:49
EN: It’s reasonable to take the buy here for the failed bear breakout
ZH: 在这里买入是合理的，押注这是失败的空头突破
23:49 - 23:52
EN: or take the buy here, a High 2 buy.
ZH: 或者在这里买入，高2入场点
23:52 - 23:53
EN: Second entry buy.
ZH: 第2做多入场点
23:58 - 24:03
EN: What else is going on here? Well, it’s more or less an endless pullback.
ZH: 还发生了什么？这有点像是无尽的回调
24:03 - 24:05
EN: The channel down is fairly tight.
ZH: 下降通道比较窄
24:05 - 24:10
EN: It could go on a lot further, and it’s a third push up – one, two, three.
ZH: 可能还会下跌很多，而且这是第3次上涨——1，2，3
24:10 - 24:14
EN: I have it drawn connecting the highs of the first and third push.
ZH: 我划线连接了1和3
24:14 - 24:16
EN: Does not matter that the second push is above.
ZH: 2在线的外面，并不重要
24:17 - 24:19
EN: And it’s also a bull breakout of a Triangle.
ZH: 第3推同时也向上突破了三角形
24:19 - 24:23
EN: We have a Triangle here, three pushes down – one, two, three.
ZH: 这里有一个三角形，3次向下推动——1，2，3
24:23 - 24:28
EN: Bull breakouts of Triangles – Triangles are often Final Flags,
ZH: 向上突破三角形——三角形经常会是末端旗形
24:28 - 24:34
EN: and therefore you have to be thinking that this bull breakout
ZH: 因此，你必须考虑这个多头突破可能是最后一段上涨， 然后会下跌回测这个三角形区域
24:31 - 24:34
EN: might be the final leg up, and we may pull back into this Triangle.
ZH: 因此，你必须考虑这个多头突破可能是最后一段上涨， 然后会下跌回测这个三角形区域
24:35 - 24:38
EN: Also, the channel down is fairly tight.
ZH: 另外，下降通道比较窄
24:38 - 24:40
EN: The pullback back up is only 1 bar.
ZH: 反弹只有1根K线
24:41 - 24:45
EN: It’s therefore possible that this is an endless pullback from a bull breakout.
ZH: 所以这有可能是无尽的回调
24:45 - 24:48
EN: An endless pullback, after it goes about 10 bars,
ZH: 回调不断持续，经过大约10根K线后
24:48 - 24:52
EN: if you start to see a bear breakout, the bulls are giving up.
ZH: 如果你看到空头突破，说明多头正在放弃
24:52 - 24:55
EN: The bears are selling, and you’re probably going to get a Measured Move down.
ZH: 空头在大量卖出，大概率会下跌到某个MM目标位
Slide 017
Time: 25:00
Bilingual Transcript
25:02 - 25:06
EN: We have a bear breakout bar below a High 2 bull flag,
ZH: 大阴线跌破了高2牛旗的最低点
25:06 - 25:09
EN: and we have a bear follow-through bar.
ZH: 而且还有跟随的阴线
25:09 - 25:12
EN: A lot of bears will sell the close of that follow-through bar,
ZH: 很多空头会在那个跟随阴线的收盘卖出
25:12 - 25:13
EN: and you can see what happened.
ZH: 可以看到发生了什么
25:15 - 25:19
EN: By the bears creating this breakout, they’re trapping bulls into a loss.
ZH: 空头让价格向下跌破，把多头套牢了
25:19 - 25:22
EN: The bulls who bought up here are giving up.
ZH: 之前在高位买入的多头正在放弃
25:22 - 25:25
EN: This series of bear bars is a Give-up collection of bars.
ZH: 这些连续的阴线是一组放弃K线
25:25 - 25:27
EN: The bears are making the bulls give up.
ZH: 空头逼迫多头放弃
25:27 - 25:30
EN: The bulls are now trapped into a losing trade.
ZH: 多头被套牢在了亏损的交易中
25:30 - 25:35
EN: They need to get out to reduce their losses, and they’re selling here.
ZH: 他们需要尽早离场、防止亏损扩大，所以在这里卖出
25:42 - 25:45
EN: Some bears will take this early sell on the follow-through bar.
ZH: 一些空头入场比较早，会在这个跟随K线的收盘卖出
25:45 - 25:50
EN: Other bears will wait until we have a very clear
ZH: 一些空头在看到非常明显的强势跌破后再入场
25:48 - 25:50
EN: and strong bear breakout and then sell.
ZH: 一些空头在看到非常明显的强势跌破后再入场
25:51 - 25:55
EN: Higher probability of making money if you sell after a strong bear breakout.
ZH: 在强势跌破之后入场，赚钱的概率更高
25:56 - 25:59
EN: However, your stop is further away, and that’s always the tradeoff.
ZH: 然而，止损会更远，总是需要做出权衡
25:59 - 26:10
EN: If you want the higher probability entry once the market’s clearly going to have
ZH: 你想要更高的胜率，此时市场显然至少会有小的第2段下跌， 那么止损就比较远，而且剩余的利润也更少
26:03 - 26:10
EN: at least a small second leg, your stop is always going to be further away,
ZH: 你想要更高的胜率，此时市场显然至少会有小的第2段下跌， 那么止损就比较远，而且剩余的利润也更少
26:07 - 26:10
EN: and you have less profit remaining in the trade.
ZH: 你想要更高的胜率，此时市场显然至少会有小的第2段下跌， 那么止损就比较远，而且剩余的利润也更少
26:10 - 26:15
EN: Therefore, greater risk, smaller profit, worse risk/reward.
ZH: 因此，风险更大，利润更小——盈亏比更差
26:15 - 26:19
EN: That’s always going to be the case
ZH: 高胜率的机会总是有这样的代价
26:17 - 26:19
EN: whenever you take the higher probability trade.
ZH: 高胜率的机会总是有这样的代价
Slide 018
Time: 26:25
Bilingual Transcript
26:29 - 26:33
EN: We have a bull trend, fairly Tight Bull Channel, and we have – a pullback here.
ZH: 上涨趋势，通道非常窄，在这里有一些回调
26:34 - 26:36
EN: A bull inside bar.
ZH: 多头孕线
26:36 - 26:39
EN: This low is a little bit below that low, so it’s not really an inside bar,
ZH: 它的低点好像略低于前一根K线的低点， 所以不算是真正的孕线
26:39 - 26:42
EN: but it’s a bull bar pulling back.
ZH: 但它是趋势中的回调
26:42 - 26:44
EN: Its high is below the high of the prior bar.
ZH: 它的高点低于前1根K线的高点
26:44 - 26:46
EN: It’s a reasonable buy above the high of that bar.
ZH: 在它的上方买入是合理的
26:50 - 26:52
EN: So let’s say you took that buy.
ZH: 假设你在这里买入了
26:52 - 26:56
EN: Where’s your stop? Is it below the low of that bar? No, you cannot do that.
ZH: 止损应该放在哪里？是在那根K线的低点下方吗？ 不行，不能放在那里
26:56 - 26:57
EN: We have dojis here.
ZH: 这里有几个十字星
26:57 - 27:02
EN: We might get two legs down, may get a third leg down to a Wedge bull flag.
ZH: 可能会有两段下跌，甚至3段下跌形成楔形牛旗
27:02 - 27:05
EN: Still bullish, still likely that we’re going higher.
ZH: （即使继续回调）仍然看涨，仍然会继续上涨
27:05 - 27:07
EN: So if you take that buy, your stop is down here.
ZH: 如果你在这里买入，止损应该放在这里
27:12 - 27:16
EN: Had you taken that buy and you bought above the high of this bar,
ZH: 假设你在这里买入——你在这根K线的高点上方挂突破买单
27:16 - 27:19
EN: you would’ve been filled here at the top of this bear bar.
ZH: 订单会在绿色框框这里成交 （注：成交价为这根阴线的最高点）
27:19 - 27:22
EN: The market went to a new low and then resumed up.
ZH: 在你入场之后，市场先下跌，再恢复上涨
27:23 - 27:27
EN: Once the market started going up, you could calculate what your Actual Risk was.
ZH: 一旦市场上涨创新高，你就知道实际风险是多少了
27:27 - 27:36
EN: You actually had to risk from your entry price to 1 tick
ZH: 你实际上承担的风险是：从入场价到回调K线低点下方1个tick, 这段距离就是你的实际风险
27:32 - 27:36
EN: below the bottom of the pullback bar, so that’s your Actual Risk.
ZH: 你实际上承担的风险是：从入场价到回调K线低点下方1个tick, 这段距离就是你的实际风险
27:36 - 27:40
EN: High probability trade since you’re buying in the strong bull trend;
ZH: 胜率高，因为你在强上涨趋势中买入
27:40 - 27:45
EN: therefore, mathematically okay to take profits at one times your Actual Risk.
ZH: 因此从数学上来说，在1倍实际风险的地方止盈是可以的
27:47 - 27:49
EN: The Initial Risk was down here.
ZH: 初始风险在这里
27:49 - 27:51
EN: This is where the stop was.
ZH: 这是初始止损的位置
27:51 - 27:55
EN: If you buy up here, it pulled back a little bit more and then resumed up.
ZH: 如果你在这里买入，市场回调了一点点，就恢复上涨
27:55 - 28:00
EN: Once it started to go up, you knew that you actually only had
ZH: 上涨之后，你就知道在这笔交易中， 你实际承担的风险只是到这根K线的低点下方
27:58 - 28:00
EN: to risk to below this bar.
ZH: 上涨之后，你就知道在这笔交易中， 你实际承担的风险只是到这根K线的低点下方
28:00 - 28:04
EN: Although you did not know it at the time, if you put your stop at that line,
ZH: 尽管在开仓的时候无法知道这一点， 但假如你把止损放在那条线，
28:04 - 28:07
EN: which turned out to be 1 tick below that bar,
ZH: 它比这根K线的最低点低1个tick
28:07 - 28:09
EN: you would not have been stopped out.
ZH: 你正好不会被止损出局
28:09 - 28:16
EN: So that means you actually risked from your entry price to this line,
ZH: 这意味着你实际上承担的风险就是从入场价到这条线—— 在回调K线的低点下方1个tick
28:13 - 28:16
EN: 1 tick below that pullback bar.
ZH: 这意味着你实际上承担的风险就是从入场价到这条线—— 在回调K线的低点下方1个tick
28:20 - 28:24
EN: The High 1 evolved into a High 2 in a strong bull trend,
ZH: 强上涨趋势中，高1发展成高2
28:24 - 28:27
EN: and you have another good-looking bull bar.
ZH: 然后又有一根漂亮的阳线
28:27 - 28:30
EN: It’s a high probability bet that you’re going to make money
ZH: 在这里买入有很大的概率可以赚钱
28:30 - 28:34
EN: taking either one of those buys, using the appropriate stop.
ZH: 选择其中一个入场点，然后使用合适的止损
28:40 - 28:43
EN: Because you’re taking a high probability buy,
ZH: 因为这里做多的胜率很高
28:43 - 28:47
EN: you can take profits that are just one times your Actual Risk.
ZH: 所以在1倍实际风险处就止盈是可以的
28:47 - 28:49
EN: That’s all you need for a positive Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 足以让数学期望为正
28:50 - 28:56
EN: If your Actual Risk is less than a point,
ZH: 但是，如果你的实际风险小于1个点，就不能这样做了； 永远不要追求小于1个点的利润
28:52 - 28:56
EN: never take profits at less than a point.
ZH: 但是，如果你的实际风险小于1个点，就不能这样做了； 永远不要追求小于1个点的利润
28:56 - 29:01
EN: So you have to take profits at least 1 point, and if the market is moving up
ZH: 最小的利润目标是1个点，如果市场在上涨，
29:01 - 29:04
EN: with fairly big bars, even 1 point is usually not enough.
ZH: 而且K线体积都很大，那么1个点的利润是完全不够的
29:06 - 29:10
EN: Here, the Actual Risk is more than a point and the trend is weakening.
ZH: 这里，实际风险大于1个点，而且趋势在变弱
29:10 - 29:12
EN: We’re getting dojis and we’re going sideways.
ZH: 开始有十字星，而且市场在横盘
29:13 - 29:15
EN: High probability of a profit.
ZH: 再加上胜率足够高
29:15 - 29:18
EN: Reasonable to take profits at one times Actual Risk.
ZH: 所以在1倍实际风险处止盈是合理的选择
29:18 - 29:22
EN: You could also try to get out with one times Initial Risk,
ZH: 你也可以尝试在1倍初始风险处止盈
29:22 - 29:30
EN: which would be your entry price here, Measured Move up from your initial stop
ZH: 从入场价，到初始止损的距离，往上翻一倍，目标在很上面
29:28 - 29:30
EN: to your entry price, and way up here.
ZH: 从入场价，到初始止损的距离，往上翻一倍，目标在很上面
29:31 - 29:33
EN: Some traders would hold for that,
ZH: 一些交易者会想要持有到那个位置
29:33 - 29:35
EN: especially since they see the strong breakout here.
ZH: 尤其当他们看到这里的突破很强劲
29:35 - 29:37
EN: They expect a small second leg up.
ZH: 他们期望至少会有小的第2段上涨
29:37 - 29:39
EN: That would be reasonable as well.
ZH: 那样做也是合理的
29:39 - 29:44
EN: Obviously, you’re going to exit over here because the day is ending.
ZH: 显然，你要在这里离场，因为马上就要收盘了
29:44 - 29:48
EN: That would be getting out around one times your Actual Risk.
ZH: 那就是大约1倍实际风险
29:52 - 29:55
EN: Reasonable to take profits one times Actual Risk.
ZH: 在这里止盈是合理的
29:55 - 29:57
EN: You buy above this bar, get filled here.
ZH: 你在这根K线的高点上方挂突破买单，在这里成交
29:58 - 30:00
EN: The market starts to go up after pulling back.
ZH: 市场先回调，再上涨
30:00 - 30:02
EN: You know your Actual Risk is here.
ZH: 你知道你的实际风险是这么多
30:02 - 30:04
EN: High probability of making money.
ZH: 赚钱的胜率很高
30:04 - 30:07
EN: Reasonable to exit at one times Actual Risk,
ZH: 在1倍实际风险处离场是合理的
30:07 - 30:11
EN: especially since you’re making, it looks like, maybe 3, 4, or 5 points.
ZH: 尤其是利润看起来至少有3个点
Slide 019
Time: 30:15
Bilingual Transcript
30:20 - 30:24
EN: Let’s say you typically like using a 2 or a 3 point stop in the Emini.
ZH: 假设在交易ES的时候，你平时的止损是2~3个点
30:25 - 30:27
EN: Here, if you’re buying above this bull inside bar,
ZH: 这里，如果你在这根阳线的上方买入
30:28 - 30:33
EN: your stop is down here, and that is 7 points below.
ZH: 止损放在下面，止损距离是7个点
30:33 - 30:37
EN: You can only take that trade if you can reduce your position size.
ZH: 因此你必须减小仓位，才能够做这笔交易
30:37 - 30:41
EN: If your account is so small that you can only trade 1 contract,
ZH: 如果你的账户很小，只能交易1手合约
30:42 - 30:46
EN: you cannot reduce your position size, and since the appropriate stop requires
ZH: 仓位没办法再小了，但根据你通常承担的风险计算，
30:46 - 30:50
EN: a smaller position given how much you typically risk,
ZH: 这笔交易你应该用平时一半的仓位交易
30:50 - 30:52
EN: you simply cannot take the trade.
ZH: 那你就没办法做这笔交易了（注：后来推出了MES， 合约价值为ES的10分之1，所以可以拆分成更小的仓位了）
30:52 - 30:53
EN: Just wait for another trade.
ZH: 等待下一个交易机会即可
30:58 - 30:59
EN: We’re in a Trading Range.
ZH: 震荡区间
30:59 - 31:02
EN: The bears got a breakout and a strong reversal up.
ZH: 先向下跌破，然后强势地反转上涨
31:02 - 31:08
EN: Big tail, not good for the bulls, but close above the Trading Range high,
ZH: 长上影线，不是多头想看到的，但它的收盘价在震荡区间的高点上方
31:08 - 31:12
EN: and this small bull body – even though it’s very tiny
ZH: 而且跟随K线是阳线——尽管非常小——
31:12 - 31:17
EN: - is enough follow-through buying to make it
ZH: 但这样的跟随足以让交易者认为至少还会上涨一些
31:15 - 31:17
EN: likely we’ll go at least a little higher.
ZH: 但这样的跟随足以让交易者认为至少还会上涨一些
31:21 - 31:26
EN: Reasonable to buy the close of the breakout bar after the reversal up
ZH: 向下跌破失败，再向上突破，在突破K线的收盘，
31:26 - 31:29
EN: from the bear breakout or the close of the follow-through bar,
ZH: 或者跟随K线的收盘买入是合理的
31:29 - 31:32
EN: or on a stop above the high of this inside bar.
ZH: 或者在这根孕线的上方挂突破买单
31:34 - 31:40
EN: It does not matter which of the buys you take;
ZH: 不论在哪里买入，止损都应该放在起涨点的下方
31:37 - 31:40
EN: the stop is below the bottom of the bull reversal.
ZH: 不论在哪里买入，止损都应该放在起涨点的下方
Slide 020
Time: 31:45
Bilingual Transcript
31:47 - 31:50
EN: All right, without looking at the price scale, you say,
ZH: 如果不看价格刻度，你会想：
31:50 - 31:57
EN: “Wow, that’s a pretty good reversal, pretty good rally.
ZH: “好耶，这个反转不错，很好！大概率还会继续上涨” 你说的没错
31:53 - 31:57
EN: We’re probably going higher.” And you are right.
ZH: “好耶，这个反转不错，很好！大概率还会继续上涨” 你说的没错
31:59 - 32:03
EN: However, if you normally risk 2 or 3 points on a trade,
ZH: 然而，如果你在平时的交易中只承担2~3个点的风险
32:03 - 32:07
EN: you cannot take this trade because if you buy here,
ZH: 就没办法做这笔交易，因为如果你在这里买入的话，
32:07 - 32:10
EN: these 2 bars are 70 points tall.
ZH: 这两根K线的高度是70个点 （注：震惊！当时标普只有1900点，10分钟73个点，涨幅超过3.8%！）
32:10 - 32:13
EN: You’d have to risk 73 points on this trade.
ZH: 这笔交易的止损距离是73个点
32:13 - 32:18
EN: If you normally risk 2 points or 3 points, you simply cannot take this trade.
ZH: 如果你平时在交易中冒2~3个点的风险， 那么就根本没办法做这笔交易
32:18 - 32:20
EN: And you just watch it and say, “Oh, this is interesting.”
ZH: 你只能坐在那里看着它涨：“哦，不得了啊”
32:20 - 32:22
EN: This is a learning opportunity,
ZH: 这也是一次学习的机会
32:22 - 32:24
EN: but you’re not going to be able to take the trade.
ZH: 只不过你无法开仓交易
32:27 - 32:29
EN: Consecutive huge bull trend bars.
ZH: 连续的巨大阳线
32:30 - 32:33
EN: Although you don’t see it, the market gapped down
ZH: 左边的K线没有显示，今天是跳空低开的
32:33 - 32:36
EN: and hit the monthly 20 month exponential Moving Average
ZH: 而且碰到了月K线的EMA20
32:36 - 32:39
EN: and then reversed up strongly from that average.
ZH: 然后从均线处强势反转上涨
32:44 - 32:49
EN: And the reversal from this low to that close is 73 points,
ZH: 从最低点到这个收盘价，涨了73个点
32:49 - 32:51
EN: and it occurred in simply 10 minutes.
ZH: 一共只用了10分钟时间
32:51 - 32:55
EN: The average daily range prior to today was only 20 points,
ZH: 在今天之前，平均每天的振幅只有20个点 （注：振幅，即当天从最低点到最高点的幅度）
32:55 - 33:00
EN: and today the first 10 minutes we have 73 points.
ZH: 而今天早盘10分钟的时间就涨了73个点
33:02 - 33:04
EN: Reasonable to buy the close,
ZH: 在收盘时买入是合理的
33:04 - 33:07
EN: but only if you’re comfortable risking that much money.
ZH: 前提是你能够轻松地承担这么大的风险 （注：哪怕只交易一手ES合约，初始风险为73 * 50 = 3550美金）
33:08 - 33:12
EN: If your account is so small that you don’t typically trade multiple contracts,
ZH: 如果你的账户很小，平时就只交易一手合约
33:12 - 33:15
EN: then you cannot reduce your position size,
ZH: 那么你就无法再减少仓位了 （注：制作该课程的时候，芝加哥商品交易所还没有推出MES期货）
33:15 - 33:18
EN: and therefore you cannot take this trade.
ZH: 因此就不能参与这笔交易
33:21 - 33:25
EN: Your risk is maybe 20 times bigger than your typical risk,
ZH: 这里的止损距离可能是你平时的20倍
33:25 - 33:30
EN: and unless you can trade 1/20th as big as you normally trade,
ZH: 除非你能够用平时20分之1的仓位来做
33:30 - 33:32
EN: you should not take this trade.
ZH: 否则就不能开仓交易
Slide 021
Time: 33:35
Bilingual Transcript
33:40 - 33:44
EN: What does an expert do? Well, I’m buying this close,
ZH: 专业的交易者会如何操作呢？ 我会在它的收盘买入
33:44 - 33:48
EN: but I’ll use the correct stop and I’ll trade the correct position size.
ZH: 仍然使用正确的止损，但我会确保仓位很小
33:48 - 33:51
EN: You have other choices as well.
ZH: 还有其他的选择
33:51 - 33:57
EN: You could trade ETFs that mirror this, or you could trade a very small size,
ZH: 你可以交易标普的ETF（注：比如SPY，没有杠杆， 期货的73个点，对应SPY就是7.3美金每股）
33:57 - 34:00
EN: or you could trade low price stocks that mirror this.
ZH: 或者可以交易对应的股票 （注：比如权重股、大盘股）
34:01 - 34:04
EN: Or you could simply buy calls, like weekly call options.
ZH: 或者可以直接买入看涨期权，比如周期权 （注：即每周5到期的期权，前两年开始还推出了每天到期的期权）
34:09 - 34:12
EN: This is a day chart of the SPY, the SPDR.
ZH: 这是标普ETF，SPY的日K线图
Slide 022
Time: 34:10
Bilingual Transcript
34:15 - 34:17
EN: Very strong bull trend.
ZH: 非常强的上涨趋势
34:18 - 34:20
EN: It’s a breakout on a higher timeframe chart.
ZH: 在更高的时间周期，这一段就是突破
34:20 - 34:27
EN: The market rallied about 20 points, which was about 10%,
ZH: 市场在一个多月的时间里上涨了20个点左右，大约是10%的涨幅
34:24 - 34:27
EN: over the course of about a month or so, month or two.
ZH: 市场在一个多月的时间里上涨了20个点左右，大约是10%的涨幅
34:31 - 34:40
EN: Let’s say you did not get long here, and let’s say you’re thinking
ZH: 假设你之前没有做多，但是现在不想等待回调了， 考虑在这里直接买入，
34:35 - 34:40
EN: about getting long here, and let’s say you do not want to wait for a pullback.
ZH: 假设你之前没有做多，但是现在不想等待回调了， 考虑在这里直接买入，
34:41 - 34:42
EN: Where’s your correct stop?
ZH: 正确的止损位置在哪里？
34:42 - 34:47
EN: All the way down here, about 20 points down – which is about 10% down.
ZH: 一直在这里，大约20美金的距离——10%左右
34:47 - 34:51
EN: Some traders will say, “Gosh, I don’t want to risk 10% on one trade.”
ZH: 一些交易者会说：“哇！我不想在一笔交易上冒10%的风险。” （注：因为股票通常没有杠杆，所以很容易重仓）
34:52 - 34:55
EN: And therefore, they have to look for stock replacement.
ZH: 因此他们必须寻找替代品（注：通常指期权）
34:55 - 34:59
EN: Also, some traders who are long – let’s say they’re long in the SPDR
ZH: 或者说，一些多头——假设他们之前买入了SPY
34:59 - 35:01
EN: - they’ll say, “Gosh, I don’t want to risk 10% on my trade;
ZH: 他们会说：“哇，我不想让资金有回撤10%的风险，
35:01 - 35:06
EN: I’m going to sell out of my SPDR and then replace my stock with something else.”
ZH: 我要卖出这些SPY，然后用其他金融衍生品来替代这部分仓位。”
35:10 - 35:12
EN: Buying up here, stop is down here.
ZH: 在这里买入，止损在这里
35:12 - 35:15
EN: It’s about 10% of the entire contract.
ZH: 大约是股价的10%
35:15 - 35:20
EN: Contract is 200, so your stop is about 20 points.
ZH: 目前股价是$200，止损距离约为$20
35:20 - 35:22
EN: That’s about 10% below your entry price.
ZH: 离入场价有10%的距离
35:27 - 35:31
EN: A good choice if your account is big enough to allow you
ZH: 如果你的账户足够大，能够获得交易期权的资格 （注：期权交易资格需要申请，但要求并不特别高）
35:31 - 35:35
EN: to trade options is to buy a call option or a call spread.
ZH: 一个好的选择是买入看涨期权，或者买入debit call spread （注：Debit spread，买入相对实值的期权，同时卖出相对虚值的期权作为对冲）
Slide 023
Time: 35:40
Bilingual Transcript
35:41 - 35:46
EN: A trick that some traders use is they enter on a lower timeframe chart.
ZH: 一些交易者使用的一个技巧是，他们在更小的时间周期入场
35:46 - 35:50
EN: They look at one timeframe to see what patterns are unfolding,
ZH: 在某个时间周期，当他们看到一些结构在形成
35:50 - 35:52
EN: and then once they see one that looks good,
ZH: 如果他们认为这是一个好的结构和机会
35:52 - 35:57
EN: they’ll look at a smaller timeframe chart to place their orders to enter.
ZH: 他们就会在更小的时间周期上寻找提前入场的机会
Slide 024
Time: 35:58
Bilingual Transcript
36:00 - 36:02
EN: Here’s a 5-minute chart of the Emini.
ZH: 这是ES的5分钟图
36:03 - 36:05
EN: The market rallied about 35 points here.
ZH: 市场上涨了大约35个点
36:08 - 36:14
EN: Strong bull breakout, rallying about 15 points in a matter of half hour or so.
ZH: 强势的多头突破，半小时左右上涨了15个点
36:14 - 36:16
EN: You have to get long, and you could buy for any reason.
ZH: 你必须做多，可以用任何方式买入
36:16 - 36:17
EN: You could buy closes.
ZH: 你可以买收盘
36:17 - 36:19
EN: Let’s say you buy that close.
ZH: 假设你在它的收盘买入
36:24 - 36:28
EN: Some traders, when they see a strong breakout like this, they have to get long.
ZH: 当交易者看到这样的强势突破时，他们必须做多
36:28 - 36:32
EN: Everybody has to get long, and you have different choices.
ZH: 每个人都必须做多，但是有不同的入场方式
36:32 - 36:36
EN: You can buy at the market, buy closes, or you can wait for a pullback
ZH: 你可以市价买入，可以买收盘，或者可以等待回调——
36:36 - 36:39
EN: - but the market may go very far before there actually is a pullback.
ZH: 但市场可能继续上涨很远才回调
36:45 - 36:48
EN: If the market is rallying very quickly and you’re afraid of missing out
ZH: 如果市场上涨得非常快，你害怕错过机会
36:48 - 36:51
EN: and you don’t want to wait for the close of the bar
ZH: 你不想等到K线收盘才买入
36:51 - 36:55
EN: and you don’t want your stop too far below, an alternative is to look
ZH: 你不想让止损越来越远，那么一个方法是：
36:55 - 37:00
EN: at a smaller timeframe chart and look for pullbacks there.
ZH: 去更小的时间周期，看看是不是有回调
37:00 - 37:02
EN: For example, this is the 1-minute chart.
ZH: 例如，这是1分钟图
37:02 - 37:06
EN: This green box is exactly this green box.
ZH: 这个绿色框框正好对应那个绿色框框
37:07 - 37:11
EN: Had you bought this close, this is where you would have entered, right there.
ZH: 如果你在它的收盘买入，这就是你的入场价，对应在这里
37:14 - 37:16
EN: The market keeps trying to reverse.
ZH: 1分钟的图上有一些反转尝试（回调）
37:16 - 37:20
EN: A very Tight Bull Channel; you have to assume all the reversals will fail
ZH: 上涨通道非常窄，你必须假设所有的反转都会失败
37:20 - 37:24
EN: and that you won’t even see these pullbacks on the 5-minute chart.
ZH: 但你在5分钟图根本看不到这些回调
37:24 - 37:25
EN: You do not.
ZH: 看不到
37:25 - 37:27
EN: On the 5-minute chart there are no pullbacks.
ZH: 在5分钟图上没有任何回调
Slide 025
Time: 37:30
Bilingual Transcript
37:33 - 37:37
EN: Let’s say you buy the close of this bar on the 5-minute chart,
ZH: 你可以在这根5分钟K线的收盘买入做多
37:39 - 37:44
EN: but as the market was going up, you thought it was going to go higher
ZH: 但市场在快速上涨，你知道会走得更高
37:44 - 37:45
EN: and you were eager to get long.
ZH: 所以你很急切地想要入场
37:45 - 37:48
EN: Some traders will look at a 1-minute chart.
ZH: 一些交易者会看1分钟图
37:50 - 37:53
EN: These first 3 bars are right here.
ZH: 前3根阳线，对应的是这里
37:56 - 37:58
EN: On the 5-minute chart, if you’re buying a pullback,
ZH: 在5分钟图上，如果你等待回调再买入
37:58 - 38:01
EN: you’re buying up here, right there.
ZH: 你最终的入场点会是在这里
38:02 - 38:04
EN: This would be the same fill.
ZH: 对应这个棕色框框的价格
38:05 - 38:08
EN: If you had placed the order to buy below the low of that bar
ZH: 如果你在它的低点下方挂限价买单
38:08 - 38:13
EN: and you get filled here, on the 1-minute chart this is
ZH: 订单会在这里成交，对应到1分钟图上就是在这里
38:11 - 38:13
EN: where you would’ve been filled.
ZH: 订单会在这里成交，对应到1分钟图上就是在这里
38:17 - 38:20
EN: An alternative when you’re seeing this market rallying like this
ZH: 当你看到市场像这样快速上涨时，一个替代的做法是
38:20 - 38:28
EN: is to put up a 1-minute chart, and as soon as you start
ZH: 打开1分钟图，当你看到有3或4根阳线收在最高， 就直接开始买收盘
38:23 - 38:28
EN: to see 3 or 4 bull bars closing on their highs, you can buy the close.
ZH: 打开1分钟图，当你看到有3或4根阳线收在最高， 就直接开始买收盘
38:28 - 38:32
EN: This is a Buy The Close rally on the 1-minute chart.
ZH: 这是1分钟图上的买收盘上涨趋势
38:32 - 38:35
EN: And let’s say you bought way at the top, up here.
ZH: 假设你在这里追涨
38:35 - 38:38
EN: This is the top of the blue box right here.
ZH: 对应的就是这个蓝色框框的顶部
38:38 - 38:41
EN: It’s really a pretty early entry on the 5-minute chart,
ZH: 在5分钟图上，实际上是入场在趋势的早期
38:41 - 38:46
EN: and taking the 1-minute Buy The Close entry is buying 6
ZH: 同样都是买收盘的方法，在1分钟图上的入场
38:46 - 38:50
EN: and a half points lower than taking the 5-minute Buy The Close entry.
ZH: 比5分钟图上的入场要提前了6.5个点 （注：风险减少了6.5，同时利润空间提升了6.5）
38:54 - 39:02
EN: Or, once you had 4 or 5 consecutive bull bars, you can look to buy
ZH: 或者，当你看到连续4~5根阳线， 就可以开始在前1根K线的低点下方挂限价买单
38:59 - 39:04
EN: at the low of the prior bar, betting that the first reversal down would fail.
ZH: 或者，当你看到连续4~5根阳线， 就可以开始在前1根K线的低点下方挂限价买单 押注第1次反转下跌会失败
39:04 - 39:07
EN: And here we finally have a bar going below the low of the prior bar.
ZH: 这里终于有一根K线跌破了前1根K线的低点
39:07 - 39:10
EN: You place a limit order, buy the low of the prior bar
ZH: 你不断在前1根K线的低点下方挂限价买单
39:10 - 39:12
EN: - not filled, not filled, not filled.
ZH: ——没成交，没成交，没成交
39:12 - 39:14
EN: You keep raising your order.
ZH: 订单不断往上抬高
39:14 - 39:20
EN: At this point, when you see this bar close, you place a limit order to buy
ZH: 在这根K线收盘后，你把限价买单移动到它的低点下方， 终于在这里成交了
39:17 - 39:20
EN: at its low, you finally get filled right here.
ZH: 在这根K线收盘后，你把限价买单移动到它的低点下方， 终于在这里成交了
39:23 - 39:27
EN: You could also, as I said, simply buy closes on the 1-minute chart.
ZH: 或者，像刚才讲的，你可以直接在1分钟图上买收盘
39:27 - 39:33
EN: After you’ve seen 3, 4, or 5 good bull bars
ZH: 看到连续3、4、5根漂亮的阳线收在最高，就直接市价买入
39:31 - 39:33
EN: closing on their highs, you simply buy at the market.
ZH: 看到连续3、4、5根漂亮的阳线收在最高，就直接市价买入
39:33 - 39:37
EN: And had you done that here, your entry on the 1-minute chart
ZH: 如果这样做，你在1分钟图上的入场
39:37 - 39:44
EN: would have been 8.75 points less than the entry
ZH: 比5分钟图上买收盘的入场提前了8.75个点
39:42 - 39:44
EN: on the 5-minute chart, buying the close up there.
ZH: 比5分钟图上买收盘的入场提前了8.75个点
39:46 - 39:48
EN: Does not matter where you buy;
ZH: 不论在哪里买入
39:48 - 39:52
EN: your stop is at the bottom of the bull leg, just below the bottom.
ZH: 初始止损都在上涨波段的起涨点下方，就在这里
39:55 - 39:56
EN: Strong breakout.
ZH: 强势突破
39:56 - 40:04
EN: You have to get long, and if you’re unable to buy closes or if you don’t want
ZH: 必须做多，如果你不想等收盘再买，或者你不想冒那么多风险， 那么可以看1分钟图，来寻找提前入场的机会
40:00 - 40:04
EN: to risk that much, you can look at a 1-minute chart for an earlier entry,
ZH: 必须做多，如果你不想等收盘再买，或者你不想冒那么多风险， 那么可以看1分钟图，来寻找提前入场的机会
40:04 - 40:08
EN: either buying closes on the 1-minute chart or buying the first pullback.
ZH: 在1分钟图上买收盘，或者在回调时买入
40:13 - 40:16
EN: I began by talking about the importance of using swing stops.
ZH: 这节课我先是讲解了使用波段止损的重要性
Slide 026
Time: 40:15
Bilingual Transcript
40:16 - 40:20
EN: Even if you’re scalping, it’s usually better to use a wide stop.
ZH: 即使你在做剥头皮交易，通常也是宽止损会更好
40:21 - 40:25
EN: If you’re buying in a breakout and the market starts to get pullbacks
ZH: 如果你在突破时买入，并且市场开始出现回调
40:25 - 40:28
EN: and enters a channel, you change how you trade.
ZH: 进入了通道阶段，就需要改变交易方式
40:28 - 40:30
EN: You begin to trade it like a channel.
ZH: 开始按照通道的方法来交易
40:31 - 40:33
EN: Breakouts often follow traps.
ZH: 突破经常跟在陷阱后面
40:33 - 40:37
EN: The market is always trying to trap traders into doing something wrong,
ZH: 市场总是在尝试让交易者做出错误的决定
40:37 - 40:40
EN: and very often the market will have a setup to go one way
ZH: 经常在一个方向走得好好的，
40:40 - 40:44
EN: and then it will quickly reverse and break out in the other direction.
ZH: 但突然反转，朝着另一个方向突破
40:44 - 40:49
EN: So you have to be aware when traps are forming and you get an opposite breakout.
ZH: 所以你必须注意是否有陷阱，关注反向的突破机会
40:51 - 40:55
EN: Some traders like to find setups on one chart and then look to enter
ZH: 有些交易者在看到交易机会之后，
40:55 - 41:00
EN: on a smaller timeframe chart, and that is a reasonable thing to do.
ZH: 会在更小的时间周期提前入场，这是合理的做法
41:00 - 41:03
EN: Most traders, however, should just trade one chart
ZH: 然而，大多数交易者应该只专注于一个时间周期交易
41:03 - 41:05
EN: and not be switching timeframes.
ZH: 而不是一直换来换去
41:05 - 41:07
EN: Too easy to make mistakes.
ZH: 因为这样做很容易犯错
41:11 - 41:12
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
41:12 - 41:15
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课
41:15 - 41:18
EN: This is the second of four videos on trading breakouts.
ZH: 如何交易突破行情的第2节课，就先讲到这里