al-brooks-course
29C - Climaxes
Raw transcript and slide notes for 29C - Climaxes.
Overview
- Slides: 24
- Transcript segments: 652
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:09
EN: This is the third of five videos on climaxes.
ZH: 这是高潮的第3节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:11
Bilingual Transcript
00:13 - 00:24
EN: I want to begin by talking about what I mean when I refer to something
ZH: 首先我会讲，我所说的“高潮反转”是什么意思， 以及大部分高潮之后不会完全反转成相反的趋势
00:17 - 00:24
EN: as a climactic reversal, and then climaxes often do not lead to trend reversals.
ZH: 首先我会讲，我所说的“高潮反转”是什么意思， 以及大部分高潮之后不会完全反转成相反的趋势
00:24 - 00:26
EN: They can become Measuring Gaps.
ZH: 高潮也可以变成测量型缺口
00:26 - 00:30
EN: I want to distinguish Exhaustion Gaps from Measuring Gaps.
ZH: 我会讲如何区分竭尽型缺口和测量型缺口
Slide 002
Time: 00:33
Bilingual Transcript
00:36 - 00:41
EN: A lot of times you’ll hear people on television talk about climaxes,
ZH: 你可能经常听到财经博主讲到“高潮形态”
00:41 - 00:46
EN: and you immediately assume that a climax is going to lead to a reversal.
ZH: 然后你自然地认为高潮会导致反转
00:46 - 00:50
EN: In fact, most climaxes do not lead to reversals.
ZH: 事实上，大多数高潮不会导致大反转
00:50 - 00:54
EN: For example, here we have a Buy Climax, and now we have a climactic reversal,
ZH: 例如，这里是抢购高潮，然后反转下跌
00:54 - 00:58
EN: but it only led to a 50% pullback and the bull trend resumed.
ZH: 然而这只是50%的回调，然后上涨趋势继续
00:59 - 01:03
EN: You don’t know that you have a climax until there is a reversal,
ZH: 在反转开始之前，你并不知道高潮什么时候结束
01:03 - 01:07
EN: and once the reversal begins, traders refer to it as a climactic reversal.
ZH: 一旦反转开始，交易者才说它是“高潮反转”
01:14 - 01:18
EN: When you get a climactic reversal – here, a big selloff and a big reversal up
ZH: 当你看到高潮反转——这里，大跌之后立刻大涨
01:18 - 01:24
EN: - they’re often scary, and the climax looks like it’s going
ZH: ——它们通常看上去很可怕， 似乎将要形成反方向的趋势
01:22 - 01:24
EN: to lead to a trend in the opposite direction.
ZH: ——它们通常看上去很可怕， 似乎将要形成反方向的趋势
01:25 - 01:27
EN: But that is the exception.
ZH: 但那是例外
01:27 - 01:30
EN: Most of the time, the market ends up going sideways.
ZH: 大多数时候，市场最终会横盘震荡
01:31 - 01:35
EN: Most climaxes are simply sharp legs in Trading Ranges.
ZH: 大多数高潮只是震荡区间中的大涨大跌
01:38 - 01:44
EN: We have a climactic reversal up and then a Trading Range.
ZH: 高潮反转、上涨，然后进入震荡区间
01:44 - 01:46
EN: We have a small Buy Climax and then a reversal down.
ZH: 小的抢购高潮，反转下跌
01:46 - 01:52
EN: Climactic reversal down and then a reversal up, and the market went sideways.
ZH: 快速下跌之后又反转上涨，市场始终在横盘震荡
01:52 - 01:56
EN: Here, we have a very strong selloff, yet it reversed up dramatically.
ZH: 这根大阴线非常强势地下跌，但又剧烈地反转上涨
01:56 - 02:00
EN: So this is a Sell Climax that led to a climactic reversal,
ZH: 所以这是抛售高潮之后的反转
02:00 - 02:03
EN: and it was simply a leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 而它（这根大阴线）只是震荡区间中的一段下跌
02:03 - 02:06
EN: It tested the bottom of the Trading Range, and then the Trading Range continued.
ZH: 它震荡区间的底部，然后继续震荡
02:09 - 02:13
EN: Here we have a Buy Climax and then the market reversed down,
ZH: 抢购高潮，反转下跌
02:13 - 02:17
EN: so we have a Buy Climax and now we have a climactic reversal.
ZH: 所以这是高潮之后的反转
02:17 - 02:20
EN: This is a climactic reversal all the way down to here,
ZH: 高潮之后一直下跌到这里，
02:20 - 02:23
EN: yet did it lead to a bear trend? No.
ZH: 但它变成下降趋势了吗？没有
02:23 - 02:25
EN: It simply led to a sideways market.
ZH: 只是让市场进入震荡区间
02:29 - 02:33
EN: Climactic reversal down, and then a Trading Range.
ZH: 抢购高潮，反转下跌，然后震荡
02:33 - 02:35
EN: So we reversed down and then a Trading Range.
ZH: 反转下跌，然后震荡
02:35 - 02:38
EN: Climactic reversal down and then sideways.
ZH: （抢购）高潮反转下跌，然后横盘
02:38 - 02:42
EN: We went up, and then we have a climactic reversal down and sideways.
ZH: 抢购高潮，反转下跌，然后横盘
02:42 - 02:45
EN: Climactic reversal down and sideways.
ZH: 抢购高潮，反转下跌，然后横盘
02:46 - 02:49
EN: Just like climactic reversal up, sideways.
ZH: 抛售高潮也是一样，反转上涨，横盘
02:49 - 02:53
EN: Up, sideways, and then up and sideways.
ZH: （抛售高潮）反转上涨，横盘
Slide 003
Time: 02:57
Bilingual Transcript
03:02 - 03:09
EN: A climax can be a single, very big bar, or it could be a series
ZH: 高潮可以是单独1根非常大的K线， 也可以是一系列小K线，有时是10根甚至更多K线
03:06 - 03:09
EN: of smaller bars, sometimes 10 or more bars.
ZH: 高潮可以是单独1根非常大的K线， 也可以是一系列小K线，有时是10根甚至更多K线
03:10 - 03:17
EN: When I use the term “climax,” I’m referring to a breakout
ZH: 当我讲“高潮”这个词的时候， 我指的是趋势后期（持续超过20根K线）的突破
03:13 - 03:17
EN: that occurs late in a trend after 20 or more bars.
ZH: 当我讲“高潮”这个词的时候， 我指的是趋势后期（持续超过20根K线）的突破
03:18 - 03:22
EN: Sometimes you get a single climax, as we have here,
ZH: 有时你会看到单独一根K线的高潮，比如这里
03:22 - 03:24
EN: and other times you get a series of climaxes,
ZH: 有时是一系列的高潮，
03:24 - 03:28
EN: like here, pullback, here, pullback, here.
ZH: 比如这里下跌，反弹，下跌，反弹，下跌
03:33 - 03:40
EN: When you see something like this, a single big bar
ZH: 当你看到这种情况：单独一根超大的K线， 但是立刻反转，这通常与新闻相关
03:37 - 03:40
EN: that reverses immediately, it’s often news-related.
ZH: 当你看到这种情况：单独一根超大的K线， 但是立刻反转，这通常与新闻相关
03:40 - 03:45
EN: Not always, but often news-related, and it’s usually
ZH: 并不100%，但它通常是新闻引起的， 通常只是在测试支撑或阻力
03:43 - 03:45
EN: simply a test of support or resistance.
ZH: 并不100%，但它通常是新闻引起的， 通常只是在测试支撑或阻力
03:45 - 03:51
EN: And that’s what this was – a very strong selloff,
ZH: 就像这里——大阴线下跌， 但只是对震荡区间下沿的测试
03:48 - 03:51
EN: but simply a test of the bottom of a Trading Range.
ZH: 就像这里——大阴线下跌， 但只是对震荡区间下沿的测试
03:56 - 03:59
EN: Every trend bar is a climax.
ZH: 每根趋势K线都是高潮
03:59 - 04:00
EN: Every trend bar is a breakout.
ZH: 每根趋势K线都是突破
04:00 - 04:05
EN: This is a bear breakout attempt, and it’s a Sell Climax,
ZH: 这是一次突破的尝试，它是抛售高潮
04:05 - 04:10
EN: yet it immediately reversed up and therefore you get a climactic reversal.
ZH: 但市场立刻反转上涨，所以是高潮反转
04:10 - 04:12
EN: It’s a single big bear trend bar.
ZH: 它是单独一根大阴线
04:13 - 04:15
EN: Here we have a big bull bar.
ZH: 这里有一根大阳线
04:15 - 04:18
EN: Every bull bar is a breakout and a climax.
ZH: 每根阳线都是突破和高潮
04:18 - 04:22
EN: This is a breakout above this Triangle or Trading Range.
ZH: 它突破了这个三角形，或者说震荡区间
04:23 - 04:27
EN: And now we have a series of 3 or 4 consecutive bull bars.
ZH: 现在有一系列3~4根连续的阳线
04:27 - 04:28
EN: This is also a climax.
ZH: 它也是抢购高潮
04:28 - 04:31
EN: Here, 2 consecutive bull bars closing on their highs.
ZH: 这里，连续两根阳线收在最高
04:31 - 04:33
EN: That’s also a climax.
ZH: 这也是抢购高潮
04:36 - 04:40
EN: This is a series of Buy Climaxes, and this is a single Buy Climax
ZH: 这是一系列连续的抢购高潮， 而这是单一的抢购高潮
04:40 - 04:44
EN: with 4 consecutive big bull trend bars closing above their midpoints.
ZH: 连续4根大阳线，至少收在一半以上
Slide 004
Time: 04:50
Bilingual Transcript
04:52 - 04:55
EN: Look at this.
ZH: 看这个案例，连续6~7根阳线
04:53 - 04:55
EN: We have 6 or 7 consecutive bull bars.
ZH: 看这个案例，连续6~7根阳线
04:55 - 05:00
EN: None of them is very big; however, on a higher timeframe chart,
ZH: 它们的体积都不大；然而，在更高时间周期的K线图上，
05:00 - 05:05
EN: they are maybe 1 or 2 big trend bars on that higher timeframe chart.
ZH: 它们就组成了1或2根大阳线
05:06 - 05:08
EN: A Micro Channel is unsustainable.
ZH: 微通道是不可持续的
05:08 - 05:10
EN: The market cannot keep doing that forever.
ZH: 市场不可能一直这样涨下去
05:10 - 05:12
EN: Eventually you’ll get a pullback.
ZH: 最终会有回调
05:12 - 05:16
EN: A Micro Channel or anything that’s unsustainable is climactic.
ZH: 微通道，或任何不可持续的东西，都是高潮
05:17 - 05:20
EN: That does not mean the market reverses.
ZH: 但这并不代表市场一定会反转
05:20 - 05:22
EN: It just means it cannot continue to do that forever.
ZH: 只是不可持续而已
05:22 - 05:25
EN: Here’s another bull Micro Channel.
ZH: 这里也有一个上涨微通道，是高潮
05:24 - 05:25
EN: Climactic.
ZH: 这里也有一个上涨微通道，是高潮
05:25 - 05:27
EN: The market had to pause.
ZH: 市场不得不停顿
05:31 - 05:36
EN: 7 bar bull Micro Channel late in a bull trend, 20 or more bars into the trend.
ZH: 上涨趋势后期——趋势已经持续了超过20根K线—— 出现了7根K线的上涨微通道
05:36 - 05:39
EN: This is 50 bars into the bull trend.
ZH: 此时上涨趋势已经持续了50根K线
05:39 - 05:45
EN: You have to be thinking that any kind of a Buy Climax
ZH: 你必须考虑到，趋势后期任何形式的抢购高潮， 都可能导致趋势衰竭、结束，
05:41 - 05:45
EN: late in the trend can be an exhaustive end of the trend
ZH: 你必须考虑到，趋势后期任何形式的抢购高潮， 都可能导致趋势衰竭、结束，
05:46 - 05:49
EN: - a Buy Climax that can lead to a reversal.
ZH: 甚至可能导致趋势反转
05:54 - 05:58
EN: Buy Climax, Buy Climax, Buy Climax, Buy Climax,
ZH: 抢购高潮，抢购高潮，抢购高潮，抢购高潮
05:58 - 06:02
EN: and on a higher timeframe chart, this could be a single bar or 2 bars.
ZH: 在某个更高时间周期的K线图上， 这可能就是1~2根大阳线
06:02 - 06:04
EN: This could be 2 or 3 bars.
ZH: 这里可能是2~3根K线
06:05 - 06:09
EN: Every series of bull trend bars, every bull Micro Channel,
ZH: 每一系列阳线，每一个上涨微通道
06:09 - 06:12
EN: is a breakout on a higher timeframe chart.
ZH: 在更高时间周期的图上都是一次突破
06:20 - 06:22
EN: Here we have 20 bars in a very Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 这个窄下降通道持续了20根K线
Slide 005
Time: 06:20
Bilingual Transcript
06:22 - 06:26
EN: There are pullbacks along the way, so it’s not a Micro Channel,
ZH: 沿途有反弹（超过前1根K线的高点）， 所以这不是一个微通道
06:26 - 06:28
EN: but it’s still a very Tight Channel.
ZH: 但它仍然是一个非常窄的通道
06:28 - 06:31
EN: On a higher timeframe chart, this is simply a breakout.
ZH: 在更高时间周期的K线图上，它就是一次突破，
06:31 - 06:34
EN: It might be 1 or 2 consecutive big bear trend bars.
ZH: 也许是1~2根大阴线下跌
06:37 - 06:38
EN: When it occurs late in a bear trend,
ZH: 当它发生在下降趋势的后期时，
06:38 - 06:42
EN: it could be a climactic end of the trend, a Sell Climax.
ZH: 它可能是抛售高潮，导致趋势结束
06:42 - 06:46
EN: Once the market reverses up, then you get a climactic reversal.
ZH: 一旦市场反转上涨，那么就变成了高潮反转
06:46 - 06:48
EN: Usually you end up going sideways.
ZH: 通常，最终会进入横盘震荡，
06:48 - 06:50
EN: Sometimes you get an opposite trend.
ZH: 有时也会变成相反的趋势
Slide 006
Time: 06:55
Bilingual Transcript
07:00 - 07:03
EN: Most trends end with a breakout.
ZH: 大多数趋势以突破结束（高潮）
07:03 - 07:06
EN: Most trends begin with a breakout.
ZH: 大多数趋势以突破开始（突破）
07:06 - 07:10
EN: When a breakout fails at the start of a trend, I call it a failed breakout,
ZH: 当最初想要形成趋势的突破失败的时候， 我称之为失败的突破，
07:10 - 07:15
EN: not a climax or a climactic reversal – even though every breakout is a climax.
ZH: 而不是高潮或高潮反转——尽管广义上每次突破都是高潮
07:17 - 07:20
EN: The market’s in a bear trend lasting about 50 bars,
ZH: 市场处于下降趋势，持续了大约50根K线
07:20 - 07:22
EN: and now we’ve got a very strong bull breakout.
ZH: 现在出现了非常强势的多头突破
07:22 - 07:26
EN: Do I want to call that a climactic end of a bull trend?
ZH: 这是上涨趋势后期的高潮结束吗？
07:26 - 07:29
EN: No, it’s the start of a bull trend.
ZH: 不，这是（尝试形成）上涨趋势的开始
07:29 - 07:31
EN: I would refer to this as a failed breakout.
ZH: =我会说它是失败的突破
07:31 - 07:37
EN: We have a bear trend and a bull breakout
ZH: 下降趋势，多头突破了趋势线，然后停滞了
07:34 - 07:37
EN: above the bear trend line, and the market just stops.
ZH: 下降趋势，多头突破了趋势线，然后停滞了
07:37 - 07:39
EN: The rally just stops.
ZH: 没有继续上涨
07:40 - 07:43
EN: If you want, you can call it a Buy Climax.
ZH: 你可以说它是抢购高潮，它确实是
07:43 - 07:43
EN: It is.
ZH: 你可以说它是抢购高潮，它确实是
07:43 - 07:47
EN: Every trend bar or series of trend bars is a breakout and a climax.
ZH: 每根趋势K线，或一系列趋势K线，都是突破和高潮
07:48 - 07:50
EN: Usually I would describe this as a breakout,
ZH: 通常我会用“突破”来描述它，
07:50 - 07:54
EN: and then once I see this, I would say it’s a failed breakout.
ZH: 然后一旦我看到这个，我会说这是一次失败的突破
07:59 - 08:01
EN: The market is in a Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 市场处于宽下降通道
08:01 - 08:06
EN: It’s forming Lower Highs and Lower Lows.
ZH: 它正在形成更低的高点和低点
08:07 - 08:11
EN: This is simply a failed reversal up within a Broad Bear Channel
ZH: 这只是宽下降通道内的一次失败的反转上涨
08:11 - 08:13
EN: - although at this point, you don’t know that.
ZH: 尽管在这个时刻，你还不知道
08:13 - 08:16
EN: Once you’re down here, you look back and say
ZH: 但是当行情发展到这里，回过头看的时候你会发现：
08:16 - 08:19
EN: “Oh, that was just a bull leg in a bear channel.”
ZH: “哦，那只是宽下降通道中的一个上涨波段。”
08:23 - 08:28
EN: Whenever any breakout fails, you can usually find a climax
ZH: 每当突破失败的时候， 你通常可以在更小的时间周期上找到某种形式的高潮
08:27 - 08:28
EN: on a smaller timeframe chart.
ZH: 每当突破失败的时候， 你通常可以在更小的时间周期上找到某种形式的高潮
08:29 - 08:32
EN: This on a smaller timeframe chart might be 10 bars,
ZH: 在更小的时间周期上，这可能是10根K线
08:33 - 08:37
EN: and it might have a small Final Flag, and you can call it a climax
ZH: 并且它可能有一个小的末端旗形，你可以说它是抢购高潮
08:37 - 08:41
EN: because then if it has 10 or 20 bars on a smaller timeframe chart,
ZH: 因为如果它在更小的时间周期上持续了10~20根K线
08:41 - 08:45
EN: you have a trend – a trend lasting 10 or 20 bars.
ZH: 那就是一个持续了10~20根K线的趋势
08:45 - 08:52
EN: And if it reverses, you would refer to this
ZH: 如果它反转了，你可以说它是抢购高潮反转下跌
08:47 - 08:52
EN: as a Buy Climax and this as the climactic reversal.
ZH: 如果它反转了，你可以说它是抢购高潮反转下跌
08:54 - 08:56
EN: A very strong bull breakout.
ZH: 非常强势的多头突破
Slide 007
Time: 08:54
Bilingual Transcript
08:56 - 08:58
EN: In fact, a series of Buy Climaxes.
ZH: 事实上，这是一系列抢购高潮
08:58 - 09:02
EN: A Buy Climax here for 2 bars, and then another Buy Climax here
ZH: 两根大阳线的抢购高潮，这跟大阳线也是抢购高潮
09:02 - 09:05
EN: or a Buy Climax lasting 4 bars.
ZH: 或者说这4根K线是抢购高潮
09:10 - 09:13
EN: It’s a strong bull breakout on a 5-minute chart.
ZH: 在5分钟图上，这是强势的多头突破
09:13 - 09:15
EN: We’re breaking above the bear channel.
ZH: 突破了下降通道
09:15 - 09:19
EN: However, on a higher timeframe chart, like a 30-minute chart,
ZH: 然而，在更高时间周期的K线图上，比如30分钟K线图
09:19 - 09:21
EN: it could simply be a failed breakout.
ZH: 它可能只是一次失败的突破
09:22 - 09:25
EN: Here’s that same chart, 30-minute chart.
ZH: 这个是对应的30分钟图
09:26 - 09:28
EN: This green box is this green box.
ZH: 两个绿色框框是对应的
09:28 - 09:36
EN: All of these bars on the 5-minute chart create just 2 bars
ZH: 5分钟图上的这么多K线，在30分钟图上只是两根K线， 市场出于下降趋势（宽通道）
09:32 - 09:36
EN: on the 30-minute chart, and the market’s in a bear trend.
ZH: 5分钟图上的这么多K线，在30分钟图上只是两根K线， 市场出于下降趋势（宽通道）
09:36 - 09:39
EN: This is simply a failed breakout attempt,
ZH: 这只是一个失败的突破尝试
09:39 - 09:41
EN: an attempt to break above the bull channel,
ZH: 尝试突破下降通道，
09:41 - 09:44
EN: and it failed and it led to a resumption of the bear trend.
ZH: 但是失败了，然后下降趋势恢复
09:49 - 09:50
EN: A very strong breakout.
ZH: 非常强势的突破
09:50 - 09:52
EN: Probably will lead to a Measured Move.
ZH: 大概率会涨到MM目标位
09:52 - 09:59
EN: My first thought always is the open of the first bar of the Buy Climax
ZH: 从第1根K线的开盘价，到第2根K线的收盘价， 把这段高度往上翻一倍
09:57 - 09:59
EN: to the close of the second bar of the Buy Climax
ZH: 从第1根K线的开盘价，到第2根K线的收盘价， 把这段高度往上翻一倍
09:59 - 10:03
EN: - 60% chance we’ll get a Measured Move up, which we did.
ZH: ——60%的概率会涨到这个MM目标位，就在这里
10:03 - 10:05
EN: And you can see the market stalling here,
ZH: 可以看到市场在这里停滞
10:05 - 10:08
EN: in part because of bulls taking profits.
ZH: 其中一个原因是多头在止盈
10:09 - 10:12
EN: It’s also a Parabolic Wedge Top – first push, pullback,
ZH: 这也是一个抛物线楔形顶——第1推，回调；
10:12 - 10:15
EN: and maybe a second push here, and then a pullback, and a third push.
ZH: 这里是第2推，然后回；最后第3推
10:15 - 10:19
EN: On a smaller timeframe chart, all these tails on the tops
ZH: 在更小的时间周期上，所有这些上影线都是回调，
10:19 - 10:24
EN: of bars represent a Wedge, a Parabolic Wedge on a smaller timeframe chart.
ZH: 它们组成了楔形——小周期上的抛物线楔形
Slide 008
Time: 10:25
Bilingual Transcript
10:30 - 10:32
EN: Trends usually begin with a breakout.
ZH: 趋势通常从突破开始
10:32 - 10:34
EN: Sometimes it’s small, sometimes it’s big.
ZH: 有小突破，也有大突破
10:34 - 10:37
EN: Here we have a couple bear bars leading to a bear trend.
ZH: 这两根阴线开启了下降趋势
10:37 - 10:40
EN: We have a reversal up, and then we have a pair of bull bars here.
ZH: 这里反转上涨，这里有两根大阳线
10:40 - 10:43
EN: The bears are giving up, the bulls are becoming more confident.
ZH: 空头放弃，多头变得更有信心
10:44 - 10:50
EN: Do I want to call this a climax? Well, every trend bar,
ZH: 这个是抢购高潮吗？ 广义上，每根趋势K线，每一系列趋势K线都是高潮
10:48 - 10:50
EN: every series of trend bars is a climax.
ZH: 这个是抢购高潮吗？ 广义上，每根趋势K线，每一系列趋势K线都是高潮
10:50 - 10:53
EN: This is a Buy Climax, that is a Sell Climax.
ZH: 这是抢购高潮，那里是抛售高潮
10:53 - 10:55
EN: It did not lead to a reversal.
ZH: 它并没有导致反转
10:55 - 10:57
EN: In fact, it led to the start of a bear trend.
ZH: 事实上，这是下降趋势的开始
10:57 - 11:01
EN: This led to a brief reversal, so this is a climactic reversal.
ZH: 这里有短暂的下跌，所以这是高潮反转（的尝试）
11:01 - 11:06
EN: However, it was simply a pullback from this breakout and the bull trend resumed.
ZH: 然而，最终只是突破之后的回调，上涨趋势继续
11:10 - 11:12
EN: Trends often end with a breakout.
ZH: 趋势通常以突破结束
11:12 - 11:16
EN: For example, we have a Sell Climax here, a breakout,
ZH: 例如，这里有一个抛售高潮，它是突破
11:16 - 11:18
EN: a Sell Climax here, and then another one here.
ZH: 这里有抛售高潮，这里也是
11:18 - 11:21
EN: This is an exhaustive Sell Climax.
ZH: 这是竭尽型抛售高潮
11:21 - 11:23
EN: We reversed up.
ZH: 反转上涨，缺口被填补
11:22 - 11:23
EN: The gap closed.
ZH: 反转上涨，缺口被填补
11:23 - 11:28
EN: The gap between this close and this low, that low, it closed with this reversal.
ZH: 这个收盘价和这个低点、那个低点之间的缺口， 反转上涨时被补掉了
11:28 - 11:32
EN: And this big bear trend bar was the end of the bear trend.
ZH: 这根大阴线是下降趋势的结束
11:33 - 11:35
EN: Here we have a big bull trend bar.
ZH: 这里有一根大阳线
11:35 - 11:38
EN: In fact, it’s the biggest bull trend bar of the entire trend,
ZH: 事实上，这是整个趋势中体积最大的阳线
11:38 - 11:44
EN: yet this breakout led to a climactic reversal and an end of the bull trend.
ZH: 但这个突破导致了高潮反转和上涨趋势的结束
11:44 - 11:47
EN: The market entered a Trading Range.
ZH: 市场进入了震荡区间
11:52 - 11:53
EN: A bear breakout.
ZH: 空头突破
11:53 - 11:57
EN: It did not become a sell climactic end of the trend.
ZH: 它没有变成趋势末尾的抛售高潮
11:57 - 12:01
EN: It became a breakout that led to another leg down.
ZH: 而是成功的突破，新的下跌波段
12:02 - 12:05
EN: Just because you have a climax, a breakout,
ZH: 仅仅是一个高潮、一次突破、
12:05 - 12:07
EN: a big trend bar, does not mean the trend will end.
ZH: 一根大的趋势K线，并不意味趋势会结束
12:07 - 12:12
EN: Sometimes it can lead to the beginning of a new swing down.
ZH: 有时它可以是一个新的下跌波段的开始
12:17 - 12:20
EN: Here we have a Sell Climax, a pair of bear bars, maybe a third push down
ZH: 这两根阴线是抛售高潮，也许是第3推下跌——
12:20 - 12:23
EN: - one, two, three – and we have a reversal up.
ZH: 1，2，3——然后尝试反转上涨
12:23 - 12:28
EN: This is an exhaustive end of the trend, yet it did not lead to a bull trend.
ZH: 这也许是趋势末尾的衰竭型抛售高潮， 但它没有变成上涨趋势
12:28 - 12:30
EN: It simply led to a pause in the trend.
ZH: 只是趋势中的一次暂停
12:30 - 12:34
EN: The market rallied above the top of the Sell Climax, formed a Double Top
ZH: 市场反弹到抛售高潮的起跌点上方，形成了一个双顶
12:34 - 12:38
EN: with that high or this high, and then the bear trend resumed.
ZH: 和这个或那个高点（形成双顶）， 然后下降趋势恢复
12:40 - 12:45
EN: It became a 1 bar Buy Climax, and in this case it was simply a bear flag.
ZH: 它变成了1根K线的抢购高潮，但它只是熊旗
Slide 009
Time: 12:50
Bilingual Transcript
12:51 - 12:53
EN: I think it’s important to pay attention to gaps.
ZH: 我认为关注缺口是非常重要的
12:53 - 12:55
EN: Often they are Exhaustion Gaps.
ZH: 它们通常是竭尽型缺口
12:55 - 12:58
EN: Other times they are Measuring Gaps.
ZH: 偶尔也可能是测量型缺口
Slide 010
Time: 13:01
Bilingual Transcript
13:01 - 13:05
EN: The biggest bull trend bar in a trend that has lasted 30 or 40 bars.
ZH: 上涨趋势持续了30~40根K线后，出现了最大的阳线
13:05 - 13:09
EN: You have to be thinking that it’s a Buy Climax – and it is.
ZH: 你必须考虑到它是抢购高潮——确实是
13:09 - 13:13
EN: Will it lead to a reversal and the end of the trend,
ZH: 它会导致趋势结束并反转吗？
13:13 - 13:18
EN: or will traders look at this and say it’s a weak rally, it’s a bear flag?
ZH: 还是说，交易者会认为这段上涨比较弱，所以是熊旗
13:18 - 13:21
EN: This might be a bull breakout of the bear flag,
ZH: 这可能是向上突破熊旗
13:21 - 13:23
EN: and maybe the trend is going to get stronger.
ZH: 也许上涨趋势会变得更强
13:23 - 13:25
EN: The trend is not strong here.
ZH: 这里的趋势并不强势
13:25 - 13:28
EN: Where are the consecutive bull trend bars?
ZH: 看不到连续的大阳线
13:28 - 13:30
EN: This looks like a bull leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 这看起来像震荡区间中的上涨波段
13:31 - 13:36
EN: Is this an exhaustive end of this trend, or is it this bull leg
ZH: 这是趋势结束的衰竭型高潮，
13:36 - 13:40
EN: in what could be a Trading Range converting into a bull trend?
ZH: 还是说，它可能是震荡区间被突破，变成上涨趋势？
13:40 - 13:45
EN: Will this be the start of a bull trend, or is it the end of this weak rally?
ZH: 它是新上涨趋势的开始，还是这个弱上涨趋势的结束？
13:49 - 13:50
EN: We have a gap.
ZH: 有缺口
13:50 - 13:53
EN: The close of this bar and the high of the breakout point.
ZH: 这根K线的收盘价，和突破点之间，存在一个缺口
13:53 - 13:54
EN: There’s a gap there.
ZH: 存在一个缺口
13:54 - 14:00
EN: Will that gap close? Will we reverse down and fall below this high,
ZH: 那个缺口会被填补吗？会反转下跌并跌破这个高点、 那个高点，甚至这个低点吗？
13:58 - 14:12
EN: that high, and even this low? Will this be an Exhaustion Gap,
ZH: 那个缺口会被填补吗？会反转下跌并跌破这个高点、 那个高点，甚至这个低点吗？ 它和它之间，是不是竭尽型缺口？ 还是谁，回调不会跌破这些高点，缺口会保持开放——
14:03 - 14:12
EN: the gap between here and here? Or instead, will any pullback fail
ZH: 它和它之间，是不是竭尽型缺口？ 还是谁，回调不会跌破这些高点，缺口会保持开放——
14:09 - 14:12
EN: to break below these highs and the gap stays open
ZH: 它和它之间，是不是竭尽型缺口？ 还是谁，回调不会跌破这些高点，缺口会保持开放——
14:12 - 14:16
EN: - in which case it could be a Measuring Gap leading to a Measured Move up,
ZH: 那么它就是测量型缺口，会继续上涨到MM目标位
14:16 - 14:21
EN: from this low to this high and then from the pullback up there.
ZH: 从这个低点，到这个高点， 回调之后，上涨同样的高度
14:21 - 14:26
EN: At this point, we do not know if that gap will be a Measuring Gap leading
ZH: 此时，并不知道它到底是新上涨趋势的测量型缺口，
14:26 - 14:31
EN: to a bull trend or an Exhaustion Gap leading to a reversal down.
ZH: 还是这个趋势末尾导致反转下跌的竭尽型缺口
14:36 - 14:40
EN: More than 20 bars into a bull trend, maybe 30 or 40 bars.
ZH: 上涨趋势持续了超过20根K线，也许已经3、40根K线
14:40 - 14:42
EN: It’s the biggest bull trend bar.
ZH: 它是体积最大的阳线
14:42 - 14:50
EN: Doesn’t have to be the biggest.
ZH: 不一定要最大——如果它是体积最大的之一， 那就足够成为抢购高潮、趋势结束的风险
14:43 - 14:50
EN: If it’s simply one of the biggest, that is all that you need to have
ZH: 不一定要最大——如果它是体积最大的之一， 那就足够成为抢购高潮、趋势结束的风险
14:47 - 14:50
EN: an increased risk of a Buy Climax and the end of the bull trend.
ZH: 不一定要最大——如果它是体积最大的之一， 那就足够成为抢购高潮、趋势结束的风险
14:54 - 14:59
EN: However, this rally is weak, and instead of this being
ZH: 然而，这段上涨很弱，所以它可能不是上涨趋势的高潮结束
14:57 - 15:04
EN: a climactic end of this bull trend, it could be a conversion
ZH: 然而，这段上涨很弱，所以它可能不是上涨趋势的高潮结束 而是从弱上涨趋势转变成更强的上涨趋势
15:01 - 15:04
EN: from a weak rally into a strong bull trend.
ZH: 而是从弱上涨趋势转变成更强的上涨趋势
15:08 - 15:10
EN: And that’s what it was in this case.
ZH: 这就是这里所发生的
15:10 - 15:15
EN: We have a reversal attempt, so we have a climactic reversal here,
ZH: 空头尝试反转下跌，所以这是高潮反转
15:15 - 15:19
EN: yet this low, this low did not fall below the breakout point.
ZH: 然而这个低点没有跌破突破点（缺口开放）
15:19 - 15:23
EN: And once you get this bull bar and the resumption of the bull trend,
ZH: 所以一旦看到这根阳线，上涨趋势恢复，
15:23 - 15:28
EN: traders are beginning to think that this gap now, instead of a gap
ZH: 交易者就开始认为这个缺口—— 不再是这个收盘价和突破点之间的缺口，
15:27 - 15:33
EN: between this close and that high, it’s a gap between the low of the pullback,
ZH: 交易者就开始认为这个缺口—— 不再是这个收盘价和突破点之间的缺口， 现在是回调最低点，或者说牛旗最低点， 和突破点之间的缺口
15:31 - 15:33
EN: the low of the bull flag, and that high.
ZH: 现在是回调最低点，或者说牛旗最低点， 和突破点之间的缺口
15:34 - 15:40
EN: At this point traders are thinking that it’s probably going to be
ZH: 此时交易者认为这可能会是测量型缺口， 大概率会继续上涨到MM目标位
15:37 - 15:40
EN: a Measuring Gap and that we’re probably going to rally for a Measured Move up.
ZH: 此时交易者认为这可能会是测量型缺口， 大概率会继续上涨到MM目标位
15:44 - 15:48
EN: Big bull trend bar.
ZH: 大阳线，是突破，也是抢购高潮
Slide 011
Time: 15:45
Bilingual Transcript
15:45 - 15:48
EN: It’s a breakout and a Buy Climax.
ZH: 大阳线，是突破，也是抢购高潮
15:50 - 15:52
EN: Weak follow-through for a couple bars.
ZH: 接下来的两根K线跟随很弱
15:52 - 15:55
EN: The bears are trying to get a climactic reversal,
ZH: 空头尝试制造高潮反转
15:55 - 15:56
EN: and they want to close the gap.
ZH: 他们想要把缺口补掉
15:56 - 15:59
EN: They want to get down to the bottom of the Buy Climax
ZH: 空头想要市场跌到抢购高潮的起涨点，
15:59 - 16:01
EN: and then maybe fall for a Measured Move below that.
ZH: 然后继续下跌到反向的MM目标位
16:03 - 16:06
EN: The reversal down did not close the gap.
ZH: 但是缺口没有被补掉
16:06 - 16:08
EN: It did not fall below the breakout point.
ZH: 回调没有跌破突破点
16:11 - 16:14
EN: Now we’re getting breakouts, here and here.
ZH: 现在多头再次突破——这里和这里
16:14 - 16:19
EN: That increases the chances that this gap will lead to a Measured Move up.
ZH: 这增加了这是测量型缺口的概率
Slide 012
Time: 16:20
Bilingual Transcript
16:23 - 16:26
EN: The bottom of the bull trend, the top of the weak rally,
ZH: 这个弱上涨趋势的起涨点，到最高点，
16:26 - 16:30
EN: and we’re getting a bull breakout above a weak rally.
ZH: 弱上涨趋势加速向上突破
16:30 - 16:39
EN: It could be an exhaustive end of the trend, but once we start
ZH: 它可能是趋势衰竭前的抛售高潮， 然而一旦涨到这里和这里， 这个缺口就更有可能是测量型缺口，涨到MM目标位
16:33 - 16:39
EN: to go up here and here, it becomes more likely
ZH: 然而一旦涨到这里和这里， 这个缺口就更有可能是测量型缺口，涨到MM目标位
16:36 - 16:39
EN: that this gap is going to lead to a Measured Move up.
ZH: 然而一旦涨到这里和这里， 这个缺口就更有可能是测量型缺口，涨到MM目标位
16:39 - 16:42
EN: That’s the Measured Move, and look what happened.
ZH: 目标位在这里，看看发生了什么
16:42 - 16:45
EN: The market got very close to that line and then paused.
ZH: 市场非常接近那个价格，然后暂停
16:45 - 16:50
EN: That means a lot of bulls were looking to take profits at a Measured Move up.
ZH: 说明有很多多头在MM目标位附近止盈
16:50 - 16:54
EN: And bear scalpers will sell there as well, especially since
ZH: 做空的剥头皮交易者也会在这里卖出做空，
16:54 - 16:58
EN: we’re getting bad follow-through here, tail here, tail here.
ZH: 尤其因为上涨过程中的跟随不好，还有很多上影线
16:58 - 17:00
EN: Bears are starting to sell above bars,
ZH: 空头开始在K线上方逢高挂卖单
17:00 - 17:03
EN: betting that we’ll get a pullback around the Measured Move target.
ZH: 押注市场会在MM目标位附近回调
17:06 - 17:09
EN: We have another breakout here and a reversal attempt here
ZH: 再次向上突破后，又有反转的尝试
17:09 - 17:13
EN: - and again, look at the low of this bar.
ZH: 但是仔细看这根K线的低点，和左边的缺口
17:11 - 17:13
EN: Go to the left and there’s a gap.
ZH: 但是仔细看这根K线的低点，和左边的缺口
17:13 - 17:16
EN: This low did not fall below that high.
ZH: 它的低点没有跌破那个高点
17:16 - 17:20
EN: Even if it fell a little bit below the high,
ZH: 就算它略微跌破那个高点，仍然可能继续上涨到MM目标位 （注：就算影线碰到，但仍然有实体缺口）
17:18 - 17:20
EN: you can still get a Measured Move up.
ZH: 就算它略微跌破那个高点，仍然可能继续上涨到MM目标位 （注：就算影线碰到，但仍然有实体缺口）
17:20 - 17:25
EN: Where did this leg up begin? It began right here, so possible Measured Move up
ZH: 这个上涨波段是从哪里开始的？从这里
17:25 - 17:29
EN: from the bottom of this leg up, which is right here, to the gap.
ZH: 所以从起涨点，到缺口，往上翻一倍
17:29 - 17:32
EN: And there’s the Measured Move target, and look what happened.
ZH: MM目标位就在这里，看看发生了什么
17:32 - 17:33
EN: Profit-takers.
ZH: 多头止盈
17:33 - 17:38
EN: Bulls look at Measured Move projections to take partial profits.
ZH: 多头在MM目标位止盈至少一部分仓位
17:42 - 17:46
EN: My original Measured Move was from the middle of the gap, this high to that low.
ZH: 之前我是根据缺口的中间来计算MM目标位 （注：也就是最初的橙色线）
17:46 - 17:49
EN: A lot of computers use the bottom of the gap
ZH: 很多电脑会用缺口的突破点 （注：新的红线）
17:49 - 17:51
EN: - in other words, the top of the bull leg.
ZH: ——也就是之前上涨趋势的最高点
17:51 - 17:55
EN: So the bottom of the bull trend to the top of the bull trend,
ZH: 所以从上涨趋势的起涨点到最高点
17:55 - 17:57
EN: and then they take a Measured Move up from there.
ZH: 然后往上翻一倍，在这里
17:57 - 18:00
EN: And you can see profit-taking here, profit-taking there.
ZH: 所以可以看到有人止盈、止盈
18:00 - 18:09
EN: And then the ultimate high, turns out, was based upon a Measured Move
ZH: 最终趋势的最高点，MM目标位是基于缺口的中点—— 橙色线，而不是红色线
18:05 - 18:09
EN: using the middle of the gap – the orange line instead of the red line.
ZH: 最终趋势的最高点，MM目标位是基于缺口的中点—— 橙色线，而不是红色线
18:09 - 18:13
EN: I initially look at the red line, the top of the bear trend,
ZH: 一开始我也会关注红线——趋势的最高点
18:13 - 18:17
EN: even though the gap is up here and the middle of the gap is here.
ZH: 尽管缺口很大，缺口的中点在这里
18:18 - 18:19
EN: I look at both.
ZH: 两个我都会关注
18:19 - 18:24
EN: If it goes above the red line, then I look for a reversal down
ZH: 如果价格突破了红线，我就会根据橙色线—— 缺口中点的MM目标位，
18:23 - 18:26
EN: based upon the orange line, the middle of the gap.
ZH: 如果价格突破了红线，我就会根据橙色线—— 缺口中点的MM目标位， 预期会在它的附近反转下跌
Slide 013
Time: 18:30
Bilingual Transcript
18:32 - 18:36
EN: We’re in a bear trend, and now we have a Sell Climax here,
ZH: 市场处于下降趋势，这里有一个抛售高潮
18:36 - 18:38
EN: and an even bigger Sell Climax here.
ZH: 而这里有一个更大的抛售高潮
18:38 - 18:40
EN: Here’s the breakout point.
ZH: 这是突破点
18:40 - 18:44
EN: Now we’re starting to reverse up, so we’re getting a climactic reversal
ZH: 现在开始反转上涨，这是高潮反转——
18:44 - 18:46
EN: - a Sell Climax and a reversal.
ZH: 抛售高潮、反转上涨
18:46 - 18:54
EN: Yet will the reversal close the gap? The gap originally was from this close
ZH: 反弹会填补这个缺口吗？ 一开始缺口是从大阴线的收盘到这个突破点之间，
18:52 - 18:58
EN: to that breakout point, and now it’s from the breakout point to this high.
ZH: 反弹会填补这个缺口吗？ 一开始缺口是从大阴线的收盘到这个突破点之间， 现在是突破点到这个高点之间的空隙
19:00 - 19:04
EN: One of the biggest bear trend bars, 20 or more bars into the bear trend.
ZH: 下降趋势持续了超过20根K线之后，出现了体积最大的阴线之一
19:04 - 19:12
EN: Increased risk of an exhaustive end of the trend, but it still could be
ZH: 增加了趋势衰竭、 结束的风险， 但这也有可能是空头突破，进入更强的下降趋势， 并且可能是一个测量型缺口
19:08 - 19:12
EN: a breakout into an even stronger bear trend, and it could be a Measuring Gap.
ZH: 但这也有可能是空头突破，进入更强的下降趋势， 并且可能是一个测量型缺口
19:12 - 19:17
EN: I call the bar itself a Measuring Gap, but you could call the actual gap,
ZH: 我把大阴线本身称为测量型缺口， 你也可以看实际的缺口——
19:17 - 19:21
EN: the pullback breakout point, as the gap.
ZH: 反弹最高点，到突破点之间的缺口
19:21 - 19:27
EN: But to me, I’m looking at that bar and I’m saying
ZH: 在我讲的时候，我会直接说这根K线是竭尽型缺口或测量型缺口
19:23 - 19:27
EN: it’s either an Exhaustion Gap or a Measuring Gap.
ZH: 在我讲的时候，我会直接说这根K线是竭尽型缺口或测量型缺口
19:27 - 19:30
EN: I call the bar a gap even though there’s no gap.
ZH: 我直接说这根K线是缺口，尽管无法直观地看到 （注：这根K线是突破，突破制造了缺口）
19:32 - 19:38
EN: Initially I want to look at a Measured Move based upon the start
ZH: 一开始，我会根据之前这个波段的起点到中点（来计算MM目标位）
19:35 - 19:38
EN: of the current leg to the end of the current leg.
ZH: 一开始，我会根据之前这个波段的起点到中点（来计算MM目标位）
19:38 - 19:42
EN: We broke below that.
ZH: 向下突破，这是潜在的MM目标位
19:40 - 19:42
EN: Possible Measured Move down here.
ZH: 向下突破，这是潜在的MM目标位
19:42 - 19:47
EN: If it falls below there, then I’ll look at a Measured Move
ZH: 如果跌破这个位置，那么根据上方的最高点， 画新的MM目标位
19:45 - 19:47
EN: from the top of the bear trend, up here.
ZH: 如果跌破这个位置，那么根据上方的最高点， 画新的MM目标位
19:51 - 19:54
EN: We have a bear breakout bar, and the next bar is a bear bar.
ZH: 大阴线跌破，后面一根也是阴线
19:54 - 19:56
EN: That’s good follow-through.
ZH: 这是好的跟随
19:56 - 19:58
EN: That increases the chances that we’re going lower.
ZH: 增加了继续下跌的概率
19:59 - 20:02
EN: We have 3 bear follow-through bars – good for the bears.
ZH: 连续3根阴线跟随，对空头有利
20:02 - 20:06
EN: We have an attempt here to close the gap, but we’re failing,
ZH: 多头尝试上涨补掉缺口，但是失败了
20:06 - 20:09
EN: a Micro Double Top and starting to turn down again.
ZH: 小双顶，开始再次下跌
20:09 - 20:10
EN: Good for the bears.
ZH: 这仍然对空头有利
20:13 - 20:18
EN: The pullback did not close the gap, so this is simply a breakout test,
ZH: 反弹没有补掉缺口，所以这只是突破后回测突破点
20:17 - 20:18
EN: a test of the breakout point.
ZH: 反弹没有补掉缺口，所以这只是突破后回测突破点
20:21 - 20:25
EN: The market fell for the Measured Move, and you can see profit-taking
ZH: 价格跌到MM目标位，可以看到有空头止盈
20:25 - 20:29
EN: and a small Sell Climax, and this is a climactic reversal.
ZH: 这也是小的抛售高潮，是高潮反转
20:31 - 20:35
EN: Yet it looks like it’s failing around the top of the most recent Sell Climax,
ZH: 然而，反弹到最近一次抛售高潮的起点附近就停止了，
Slide 014
Time: 20:35
Bilingual Transcript
20:35 - 20:38
EN: and now we have a Double Top bear flag with this high and that high,
ZH: 现在这两个高点形成了双顶熊旗
20:38 - 20:41
EN: or the top of the Sell Climax and that high.
ZH: 或者这两个高点
20:41 - 20:45
EN: Bears will sell below this bar, looking for a continued bear trend.
ZH: 空头会在这根K线下方卖出，期待下降趋势继续
20:48 - 20:49
EN: A bear breakout.
ZH: 空头突破
20:49 - 20:50
EN: Another bear breakout.
ZH: 又一个空头突破
20:51 - 20:53
EN: Here’s the breakout point.
ZH: 这是突破点
20:53 - 20:56
EN: The market went above the breakout point, so the gap closed,
ZH: 反弹到了突破点的上方，所以缺口被补掉了
20:56 - 20:59
EN: but it still could be a continued bear trend.
ZH: 但下降趋势仍然可能继续
21:04 - 21:08
EN: Whenever the pullback overlaps the breakout point,
ZH: 当反弹和突破点有重叠的时候，
21:08 - 21:13
EN: if the pullback does not overlap it by very much, I call it a negative gap,
ZH: 如果只是影线之间重叠，我称之为实体缺口（负缺口）
21:13 - 21:16
EN: and it sometimes also leads to a Measured Move.
ZH: 实体缺口也可能让价格去到MM目标位
21:16 - 21:19
EN: From the top of the bear trend to the middle of that gap,
ZH: 从下降趋势的最高点，到缺口的中间，往下翻一倍
21:19 - 21:21
EN: maybe the market will fall for a Measured Move.
ZH: 市场也许会跌到那个MM目标位
21:21 - 21:27
EN: This is overlapping by more than what typically happens
ZH: 通常来说，足够强的下降趋势不会有这么多重叠
21:25 - 21:27
EN: if you’re going to get a Measured Move down,
ZH: 通常来说，足够强的下降趋势不会有这么多重叠
21:27 - 21:29
EN: but it still could result in a Measured Move down.
ZH: 但它仍然有可能会继续跌到MM目标位
21:32 - 21:36
EN: At this point it is an Exhaustion Gap, this Sell Climax.
ZH: 此时，这个抛售高潮是竭尽型缺口，
21:36 - 21:42
EN: The gap between this close and that breakout point it closed over here.
ZH: 这个收盘价到突破点之间的缺口被填补了
21:43 - 21:48
EN: This is an exhaustive Sell Climax, but that does not mean
ZH: 这是衰竭型的抛售高潮，但并不代表会反转成为上涨趋势
21:46 - 21:48
EN: the reversal will lead to a bull trend.
ZH: 这是衰竭型的抛售高潮，但并不代表会反转成为上涨趋势
21:48 - 21:51
EN: We’re still in a bear trend, and the reversal up has terrible follow-through.
ZH: 现在仍然出于下降趋势，这根大阳线的跟随很糟糕
21:56 - 22:01
EN: Because we have a negative gap [Body Gap], slight overlap of the pullback
ZH: 因为实体缺口（负缺口）的存在， 反弹和突破点之间只是略微的重叠
22:00 - 22:06
EN: and the breakout point, we could get a Measured Move down
ZH: 因为实体缺口（负缺口）的存在， 反弹和突破点之间只是略微的重叠 可能会以缺口的中点为参照，跌到MM目标位
22:03 - 22:06
EN: from the midpoint of the overlap.
ZH: 可能会以缺口的中点为参照，跌到MM目标位
22:06 - 22:12
EN: I still call that a possible gap – the high of the pullback bar,
ZH: 我认为这是一个潜在的缺口——反弹的高点，和突破的低点
22:10 - 22:17
EN: the low of the breakout point, and the Measured Move might come
ZH: 我认为这是一个潜在的缺口——反弹的高点，和突破的低点 MM目标位测量的起点，可能是这个下跌波段的起跌点， 或者整个下降趋势的最高点
22:13 - 22:17
EN: from the top of this current bear leg or the top of the bear trend.
ZH: MM目标位测量的起点，可能是这个下跌波段的起跌点， 或者整个下降趋势的最高点
22:21 - 22:24
EN: And you can see what happened
ZH: 可以很清楚地看到，跌到MM目标位之后发生了什么
22:22 - 22:24
EN: when the market got down to the Measured Move target.
ZH: 可以很清楚地看到，跌到MM目标位之后发生了什么
22:24 - 22:27
EN: We have a Sell Climax and a reversal.
ZH: 抛售高潮，然后反转
22:27 - 22:28
EN: We have profit-taking.
ZH: 空头在这里止盈
22:28 - 22:32
EN: The gap between this low and that high closed.
ZH: 这个低点和突破点之间的缺口被填补了
22:32 - 22:34
EN: It became an Exhaustion Gap.
ZH: 它变成了竭尽型缺口
22:34 - 22:39
EN: This is a climactic reversal that led to an actual trend reversal.
ZH: 这个高潮反转，真的反转成了相反的趋势
Slide 015
Time: 22:44
Bilingual Transcript
22:47 - 22:50
EN: We have a big bear trend bar, so it’s a breakout,
ZH: 这是一根大阴线，所以它是突破
22:50 - 22:52
EN: but it’s occurring 20 or more bars into a bear trend.
ZH: 但它发生在下降趋势的后期（已经持续超过20根K线）
22:52 - 22:56
EN: Here, it’s occurring 50 or 60 bars into a bear trend.
ZH: 实际上这个下降趋势已经持续了至少50~60根K线
22:57 - 23:00
EN: Whenever I see the biggest trend bar late in a trend,
ZH: 每当我看到趋势后期出现最大的K线，
23:00 - 23:05
EN: the odds are it’ll be an Exhaustion Gap, not a Measuring Gap.
ZH: 它大概率会是竭尽型缺口，而不是测量型缺口
23:05 - 23:12
EN: It sometimes is a Measuring Gap, but 60% of the time it ends up
ZH: 偶尔可能是测量型缺口，但60%的时候， 它最终会变成竭尽型缺口，并且被填补
23:10 - 23:12
EN: as an Exhaustion Gap and the gap closes.
ZH: 偶尔可能是测量型缺口，但60%的时候， 它最终会变成竭尽型缺口，并且被填补
23:12 - 23:16
EN: Initially the gap is between this close and any of these lows
ZH: 一开始，缺口是大阴线的收盘， 到前期这些低点之间（的空隙）
23:16 - 23:20
EN: - the low of the bar before or any of the lows of the Trading Range.
ZH: ——比如前1根K线的低点，或者这个震荡区间的低点
23:21 - 23:24
EN: And then once you get a pullback and a resumption of the bear trend,
ZH: 反弹，然后再次下跌之后，缺口缩小了
23:24 - 23:30
EN: the gap is then between the top of the pullback,
ZH: 现在是从反弹的最高点，也就是熊旗的最高点， 到前期的这些低点之间
23:27 - 23:30
EN: the top of the bear flag, and these lows.
ZH: 现在是从反弹的最高点，也就是熊旗的最高点， 到前期的这些低点之间
23:34 - 23:38
EN: Here we have a Sell Climax and a climactic reversal,
ZH: 抛售高潮，反转上涨
23:39 - 23:41
EN: and it led to a Trading Range.
ZH: 进入震荡区间
23:41 - 23:44
EN: Ultimately we got a trend reversal.
ZH: 最终反转成为上涨趋势
23:49 - 23:53
EN: Whenever you have a Sell Climax like this late in a bear trend
ZH: 每当你在下降趋势后期看到这样的抛售高潮，
23:53 - 23:59
EN: and you start to get a reversal, the first target is always a move
ZH: 并且价格开始反转上涨的时候， 多头的第1个目标就是抛售高潮的起跌点上方
23:57 - 23:59
EN: just above the top of the Sell Climax.
ZH: 并且价格开始反转上涨的时候， 多头的第1个目标就是抛售高潮的起跌点上方
23:59 - 24:03
EN: The bears want a Double Top with that high and this high.
ZH: 空头希望这个高点和这个高点形成双顶
24:03 - 24:06
EN: They want a break below the neckline and a Measured Move down.
ZH: 他们希望可以跌破颈线，然后继续下跌到MM目标位
24:06 - 24:10
EN: The bulls want a break above the Double Top and a Measured Move up.
ZH: 而多头希望能够向上突破双顶、涨到MM目标位
24:14 - 24:18
EN: The bulls got much more than a Measured Move up here.
ZH: 最终上涨趋势的幅度远远超过了MM目标位
24:22 - 24:24
EN: Strong breakout, 2 bars here.
ZH: 这两根大阳线是非常强势的突破
24:25 - 24:31
EN: Probably going to get a Measured Move up, maybe based upon the open
ZH: 很肯能会涨到MM目标位，从第1根K线的开盘价 第2根K线的收盘价，往上翻一倍
24:29 - 24:31
EN: of the first bar to the close of the final bar.
ZH: 很肯能会涨到MM目标位，从第1根K线的开盘价 第2根K线的收盘价，往上翻一倍
24:31 - 24:37
EN: It’s a 2 bar Buy Climax, and the market
ZH: 两根大阳线的突破，在MM目标位附近有多头止盈
24:35 - 24:37
EN: had some profit-taking at the Measured Move target.
ZH: 两根大阳线的突破，在MM目标位附近有多头止盈
Slide 016
Time: 24:40
Bilingual Transcript
24:44 - 24:51
EN: We have a bull trend, and now we have the biggest bull trend bar late
ZH: 上涨趋势，已经持续了超过20多根K线， 在趋势后期出现了体积最大的大阳线
24:48 - 24:51
EN: in a bull trend, after the bull trend has gone on for 20 or more bars.
ZH: 上涨趋势，已经持续了超过20多根K线， 在趋势后期出现了体积最大的大阳线
24:51 - 24:54
EN: More likely an exhaustive end of the trend,
ZH: 趋势更有可能即将衰竭
24:54 - 24:59
EN: less likely a Measuring Gap and a Measured Move up.
ZH: 不太可能是测量型缺口、涨到MM目标位
25:00 - 25:07
EN: Whenever I see the biggest bull bar or the biggest 2, 3,
ZH: 每当我看到趋势后期出现最大的阳线， 或者连续2、3、4根大阳线，
25:04 - 25:07
EN: or 4 consecutive bull bars occurring late in a bull trend,
ZH: 每当我看到趋势后期出现最大的阳线， 或者连续2、3、4根大阳线，
25:07 - 25:12
EN: I assume the odds are it’s an exhaustive end of the trend and that the market
ZH: 我就假设趋势大概率即将衰竭，
25:12 - 25:16
EN: would either then enter a Trading Range or an opposite trend.
ZH: 要么进入震荡区间，要么变成相反的趋势
25:18 - 25:20
EN: Initially the gap is this close to that high.
ZH: 最初，缺口是它的收盘价到那个高点
25:20 - 25:24
EN: We have a bull flag here, small Double Bottom bull flag,
ZH: 这里有一个牛旗，小双底牛旗
25:24 - 25:28
EN: so then the gap is the bottom of the bull flag – maybe that low and this high
ZH: 所以缺口缩小，从牛旗的最低点——这个低点，到突破点
25:28 - 25:31
EN: and then we get a climactic reversal and the gap closed.
ZH: 然后高潮反转，缺口被补掉
25:31 - 25:36
EN: I would refer to this bar as an Exhaustion Gap or an Exhaustion Gap bar.
ZH: 我会把这根K线称为竭尽型缺口，或竭尽型缺口K线
25:41 - 25:43
EN: On the way up we have a breakout here.
ZH: 在上涨过程中，这里有一个突破
25:43 - 25:46
EN: The low of this bar, the high of that bar.
ZH: 这根K线的低点，和那根K线的高点之间，没有重叠
25:45 - 25:46
EN: No overlap.
ZH: 这根K线的低点，和那根K线的高点之间，没有重叠
25:46 - 25:50
EN: Possible Measuring Gap, and you can see bulls took profits there.
ZH: 潜在的测量型缺口，你可以看到多头在那里止盈
25:50 - 25:57
EN: And part of this bull trend bar was caused by a buy vacuum test
ZH: 这根大阳线形成的一部分原因是对MM目标位的真空测试
25:55 - 26:04
EN: of the Measured Move target, and there’s also a top of a channel here,
ZH: 这根大阳线形成的一部分原因是对MM目标位的真空测试 这里也是通道的上沿，它也是一个磁铁， 市场加速上涨到通道的上沿
26:00 - 26:04
EN: and that is also a magnet, and the market raced up
ZH: 这里也是通道的上沿，它也是一个磁铁， 市场加速上涨到通道的上沿
26:02 - 26:04
EN: to get to the top of the channel.
ZH: 这里也是通道的上沿，它也是一个磁铁， 市场加速上涨到通道的上沿
26:08 - 26:10
EN: We have a pullback here, the bottom of a bull flag.
ZH: 这里有一个小回调，也就是牛旗的最低点
26:10 - 26:13
EN: I always look to the left, and is it testing something?
ZH: 我总是观察左边，它是否在测试某些东西？
26:13 - 26:18
EN: Maybe it’s testing this high, so this might be a Measuring Gap.
ZH: 也许它在测试这个高点，所以这可能是一个测量型缺口
26:18 - 26:27
EN: Measured Move up either based upon the midpoint of the breakout
ZH: MM目标位——基于回调最低点和突破点之间的缺口的中点， 或者基于突破点
26:22 - 26:27
EN: and the bull flag pullback or the top of the breakout point.
ZH: MM目标位——基于回调最低点和突破点之间的缺口的中点， 或者基于突破点
26:27 - 26:34
EN: I usually first look at a Measured Move based upon the top
ZH: 我通常会先按照突破点来测量（更近的目标）， 如果超过了这个目标，
26:31 - 26:34
EN: of the breakout point, and if it goes beyond that,
ZH: 我通常会先按照突破点来测量（更近的目标）， 如果超过了这个目标，
26:34 - 26:37
EN: then I look at a Measured Move based upon the midpoint of the gap.
ZH: 然后我再按照缺口的中点去测量
26:40 - 26:43
EN: This is the Measured Move based upon the midpoint of the gap.
ZH: 按照缺口中点测量的MM目标位在这里
26:43 - 26:46
EN: When the market gets there, I want to see how it behaves.
ZH: 当价格涨到那里时，我想观察它的行为
26:46 - 26:51
EN: If I’m long, I’m going to take at least partial profits, maybe full profits.
ZH: 如果我做多了，我会至少止盈一部分，甚至是全部
26:51 - 26:55
EN: And if I’m not long, I start thinking about possibly selling for a scalp.
ZH: 如果我没有做多，我会考虑做空，做一笔剥头皮交易
Slide 017
Time: 27:00
Bilingual Transcript
27:03 - 27:07
EN: When the bulls see a big bar like this late in a trend, they’re excited.
ZH: 当多头在趋势后期看到这样一根大阳线时，他们会很兴奋
27:07 - 27:10
EN: What a great opportunity to take profits.
ZH: 这是一个绝好的止盈机会
27:10 - 27:13
EN: They have a surprise move, and they sell.
ZH: 这像是送给多头的一份惊喜
27:13 - 27:15
EN: The bulls sell to take partial profits.
ZH: 多头卖出，至少止盈一部分
27:15 - 27:17
EN: Sometimes they sell to take full profits.
ZH: 有时候他们会全部卖出
27:17 - 27:21
EN: They know that whenever you get a big bull trend bar late in a bull trend,
ZH: 他们知道，如果上涨趋势后期出现一根大阳线，
27:21 - 27:27
EN: the gap is probably going to close, and therefore it’s a great opportunity
ZH: 缺口大概率会被补掉，所以这是一个绝佳的止盈机会
27:26 - 27:33
EN: to take profits, and you wait to see if the bears simply test down,
ZH: 缺口大概率会被补掉，所以这是一个绝佳的止盈机会 然后等着观察，空头是否只是测试突破点、补缺口， 并没有形成下降趋势；
27:30 - 27:33
EN: close the gap and not create a bear trend,
ZH: 然后等着观察，空头是否只是测试突破点、补缺口， 并没有形成下降趋势；
27:33 - 27:35
EN: or if the bears look reasonably strong and you start
ZH: 还是说，空头看起来很强壮，
27:35 - 27:39
EN: to see a lot of bear bodies, in which case the bulls wait to buy.
ZH: 有很多较大的阴线，那么多头就不会轻易再次买入
27:44 - 27:49
EN: The bulls are not going to take profits here if they think the market’s
ZH: 如果多头认为市场只会回调1根K线， 那么他们就没必要在这里止盈，
27:47 - 27:54
EN: just going to pull back 1 bar, because then they have to buy again,
ZH: 如果多头认为市场只会回调1根K线， 那么他们就没必要在这里止盈， 因为立刻做决定再次买入是一件艰难的事
27:51 - 27:54
EN: and it might be hard to buy again.
ZH: 因为立刻做决定再次买入是一件艰难的事
27:54 - 27:59
EN: They’re only taking profits because they think the market may correct
ZH: 他们止盈离场， 是因为他们认为市场可能要回调两段、10K，
27:57 - 28:04
EN: for 10 bars and two legs, and possibly lead to a reversal
ZH: 他们止盈离场， 是因为他们认为市场可能要回调两段、10K， 趋势后期最大的阳线， 甚至有可能会反转成为下降趋势
28:01 - 28:04
EN: after a big bull trend bar late in a bull trend.
ZH: 趋势后期最大的阳线， 甚至有可能会反转成为下降趋势
28:04 - 28:06
EN: They want to see what the bears can do.
ZH: 所以他们要观察空头的实力如何
28:06 - 28:10
EN: They wait 5 or 10 bars to see if the bears look reasonably strong,
ZH: 多头会等待5~10根K线，如果空头足够强壮，
28:10 - 28:12
EN: and then the bulls wait even more.
ZH: 多头就会继续等待
28:13 - 28:17
EN: If the bears, on the other hand, do not look strong, the bulls will buy,
ZH: 如果空头看起来不怎么样，那么多头就会再次买入，
28:17 - 28:19
EN: betting that the correction is simply a bull flag.
ZH: 押注这只是一次回调，只是牛旗
28:23 - 28:25
EN: Nobody left to buy at this high price.
ZH: 没有人愿意在这么高的价格买入
28:25 - 28:27
EN: The strong bears are going to sell,
ZH: 强空头会卖出做空
28:27 - 28:30
EN: and they’re never going to buy back their shorts.
ZH: 而且他们不打算回补他们的空头仓位
28:30 - 28:35
EN: The weak bears, they sold here and they’re buying back their shorts here.
ZH: 弱空头，他们在这里卖出，然后在这里回补、止损
28:35 - 28:36
EN: So no more weak bears left.
ZH: 所以弱空头都已经止损离场了
28:37 - 28:41
EN: The weak bulls are buying up here, but there are not very many of them,
ZH: 弱空头在高位买入止损，但数量并不多 （注：弱空头的买入不足以推高价格）
28:41 - 28:43
EN: and the strong bulls are taking profits.
ZH: 而强多头在卖出止盈
28:44 - 28:45
EN: Therefore there’s nobody left to buy,
ZH: 所以没有足够的买盘
28:46 - 28:50
EN: and you get a pullback and possibly a reversal.
ZH: 所以造成了回调，甚至是反转
28:52 - 28:54
EN: The strong bulls just took profits.
ZH: 强多头刚刚止盈离场，
28:54 - 28:56
EN: They’re not going to buy again a bar or two later.
ZH: 他们不会在一两根K线后就立刻再次买入
28:56 - 28:58
EN: They’re going to wait 10 or more bars
ZH: 他们会等10根或更多K线
28:58 - 29:02
EN: before they buy again, and maybe they buy here.
ZH: 也许等到这里买入
29:02 - 29:04
EN: Very Tight Channel.
ZH: 下降通道很窄
29:04 - 29:07
EN: Most of them would probably wait, maybe buy here or buy here.
ZH: 大部分多头会继续等待，也许会在这里买入或在这里买入
29:13 - 29:16
EN: The strong bears know the bulls will take profits,
ZH: 强空头知道多头会止盈
29:16 - 29:18
EN: and the bears will start to sell.
ZH: 所以他们会开始卖出做空
29:18 - 29:23
EN: Maybe they’ll sell above bars, sell closes, sell below bars.
ZH: 他们会在K线上方（挂限价卖单）卖出， 在收盘时（市价）卖出，在K线下方（挂突破卖单）卖出
29:23 - 29:26
EN: If they do, they probably have to use a wide stop,
ZH: 如果用限价卖单做空， 他们可能需要设置较宽的初始止损，
29:26 - 29:28
EN: maybe based upon the height of this breakout
ZH: 比如把这个突破的高度往上翻一倍，
29:28 - 29:32
EN: - so the stop would be somewhere up here, and they’ll look to add on higher.
ZH: ——所以初始止损在这个地方附近， 而且他们做好了逢高加仓的打算
29:38 - 29:42
EN: The safest way to sell would be with a stop order.
ZH: 用突破卖单做空是更加安全的方法 （注：因为止损明确，而且距离很短）
Slide 018
Time: 29:40
Bilingual Transcript
29:42 - 29:44
EN: Here we have a second entry short.
ZH: 这是第2做空入场点
29:44 - 29:46
EN: Here’s the first entry, the market going below this bar.
ZH: 跌破这根K线的时候是第1入场点
29:46 - 29:48
EN: The bulls tried to resume again.
ZH: 上涨趋势尝试恢复
29:48 - 29:51
EN: We have a Micro Double Top here, we have a small Double Top here,
ZH: 这里有一个小双顶，这里有一个小双顶
29:51 - 29:54
EN: and now we have a failed breakout for the second time.
ZH: 这是回调之后，上涨第2次失败
29:54 - 29:56
EN: The breakout failed here.
ZH: 第1次向上突破失败
29:56 - 30:00
EN: The bulls tried to resume, and now it’s failing a second time.
ZH: 上涨趋势尝试恢复，再次失败
30:00 - 30:02
EN: That’s a higher probability short.
ZH: 在这里做空的胜率会更高一些
30:03 - 30:07
EN: Traders who sell early like this, some of them after a second entry short
ZH: 提前入场做空的空头，在看到第2入场点之后，
30:07 - 30:09
EN: would put a stop above this bar or above that bar.
ZH: 会把止损放在这个或这个高点上方
30:09 - 30:13
EN: Very low risk, very big reward.
ZH: 风险很低，潜在回报很大
30:13 - 30:17
EN: That always means the probability is low, or relatively low.
ZH: 这总是意味着概率低，或相对较低
30:17 - 30:21
EN: Higher probability to sell after you’ve seen a strong reversal down.
ZH: 在看到强势的反转下跌之后再做空，概率会更高
30:23 - 30:27
EN: At this point we’ve been in a bear Tight Channel for about 10 bars,
ZH: 到目前为止，窄下降通道已经持续了大约10根K线
30:27 - 30:31
EN: and it’s higher probability to sell here or below this bear reversal.
ZH: 在这里卖出，或者在这根阴线下方卖出做空， 胜率会更高一些
30:31 - 30:36
EN: This is a Double Top bear flag – this high and maybe that bull bar.
ZH: 这是一个双顶熊旗——这个高点和那个阳线
30:36 - 30:40
EN: Or you can simply say two legs up, one, pullback, two, and a decent bear bar.
ZH: 也可以看作两段式反弹——1，回调，2， 然后有不错的阴线（做空信号K）
30:41 - 30:42
EN: Very Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 窄下降通道
30:42 - 30:45
EN: Probably minor reversal and we’re going lower.
ZH: 大概率只是小反弹，会继续下跌
Slide 019
Time: 30:50
Bilingual Transcript
30:52 - 30:56
EN: A big bear trend bar, therefore a breakout, and a climax,
ZH: 大阴线，因此是突破和高潮
30:56 - 30:59
EN: occurring 20 or more bars into a bear trend.
ZH: 此时下降趋势已经持续了超过20根K线
30:59 - 31:03
EN: Here it’s occurring 60 or 70 bars into the bear trend.
ZH: 实际上已经下跌了60~70根K线
31:03 - 31:10
EN: Most likely the gap between this close and that low
ZH: 这个收盘价和前期这些低点之间的缺口很可能会被填补，
31:07 - 31:13
EN: or any of these lows will close, and therefore this is probably
ZH: 这个收盘价和前期这些低点之间的缺口很可能会被填补， 所以它很可能是竭尽型缺口K线
31:11 - 31:13
EN: going to be an Exhaustion Gap bar.
ZH: 所以它很可能是竭尽型缺口K线
31:13 - 31:15
EN: I simply call it an Exhaustion Gap.
ZH: 我会直接用“竭尽型缺口”这个词
31:15 - 31:20
EN: Less likely it’ll be a Measuring Gap leading to a Measured Move down.
ZH: 不太可能是测量型缺口，然后跌到MM目标位
31:21 - 31:25
EN: You can see the high of this bar slightly overlapped the low of that bar,
ZH: 这根K线的高点，和那根K线的低点，有略微的重叠
31:26 - 31:29
EN: so we have a negative gap and we could have a Measured Move down.
ZH: 所以这是一个实体缺口（负缺口）， 理论上有可能会继续下跌到MM目标位
31:29 - 31:32
EN: But the biggest bear trend bar late in the trend like this,
ZH: 但是看到下降趋势后期出现体积最大的大阴线，
31:32 - 31:35
EN: if you’re a strong bear, what are you going to do?
ZH: 如果你是强空头，你会怎么做？
31:35 - 31:37
EN: You’re going to use it to take profits.
ZH: 你会利用它来止盈离场
31:37 - 31:39
EN: You’re going to say, “Wow, what a big gift.
ZH: 你会说：“哇！感谢市场爸爸的大礼！
31:39 - 31:40
EN: I’m going to take profits.
ZH: 这是止盈的好机会
31:40 - 31:45
EN: I’ll wait 10 bars, 20 bars, 5 bars to see if the bulls can get a reversal.
ZH: 然后等待5，10，20根K线，看看多头是否有能力反转
31:45 - 31:49
EN: If the bulls fail and we simply go sideways, then I’ll sell again.
ZH: 如果多头失败，只是横盘震荡，那么我会再次入场做空
31:49 - 31:53
EN: If on the other hand, the bulls are able
ZH: 然而，如果多头能够制造相当不错的反转，我就不着急卖出，
31:51 - 31:53
EN: to get a pretty good reversal, I won’t sell.
ZH: 然而，如果多头能够制造相当不错的反转，我就不着急卖出，
31:53 - 31:56
EN: I’ll just wait until I get a sell setup.”
ZH: 耐心等一个好的机会再动手。“
31:56 - 31:58
EN: And here, there never was a sell setup.
ZH: 而这里，没有出现过做空的机会
32:02 - 32:05
EN: We have a Trading Range and a breakout.
ZH: 窄震荡区间，向下突破
32:05 - 32:07
EN: It fell to about a Measured Move down.
ZH: 大约跌到了MM目标位的地方
32:08 - 32:12
EN: A reversal down here, a reversal down here, so I can draw a bear trend line.
ZH: 下跌，下跌，所以可以画一条下降趋势线
32:12 - 32:15
EN: I can then create a parallel and drag it to a low
ZH: 然后把它的平行线拖到这个低点
32:15 - 32:19
EN: that would contain all of the prices, and look what happens.
ZH: 让通道把所有的K线包含进去，看看会发生什么
32:19 - 32:23
EN: We’re at a Measured Move target and the bottom of a channel.
ZH: 价格跌到MM目标位，也是通道的下沿，有人买入
32:22 - 32:23
EN: Buyers.
ZH: 价格跌到MM目标位，也是通道的下沿，有人买入
32:23 - 32:27
EN: The bears tried to resume again, but we reversed up again a second time.
ZH: 空头尝试恢复趋势，但第2次反转上涨
Slide 020
Time: 32:30
Bilingual Transcript
32:34 - 32:37
EN: The bears have been short, and they’ve been selling all the way down.
ZH: 空头一直做空，他们一路抛售
32:37 - 32:39
EN: They’re looking for reasons to take profits.
ZH: 他们在等待一个止盈的理由
32:40 - 32:43
EN: When you see a big breakout like this late in the bear trend,
ZH: 当你在下降趋势后期看到这样的突破时
32:43 - 32:46
EN: it’s probably an exhaustive end of the move.
ZH: 代表趋势很可能会衰竭
32:46 - 32:49
EN: We’re probably going to go sideways, or we might reverse.
ZH: 很可能会横盘整理，甚至反转上涨
32:49 - 32:52
EN: When the bears see that close, they buy.
ZH: 当空头看到这个大阴线的时候，他们会买入
32:52 - 32:54
EN: They buy back their shorts and they wait.
ZH: 他们会买回自己的空头仓位，然后等待
32:54 - 33:00
EN: The weak bears might sell here,
ZH: 而弱空头可能会在这里卖出， 因为他们认为下降趋势终于明显变强了
32:57 - 33:00
EN: thinking that finally the market’s clearly strong.
ZH: 而弱空头可能会在这里卖出， 因为他们认为下降趋势终于明显变强了
33:00 - 33:02
EN: But if they do, they’re going to get trapped.
ZH: 这些弱空头就被套牢了
33:02 - 33:06
EN: There are just not enough weak bears to keep the trend going.
ZH: 弱空头卖出，不足以让下降趋势继续
33:06 - 33:11
EN: Weak bulls who have been buying along here, hoping for reversals,
ZH: 同时，在下跌途中不断买入的弱多头，希望可以反转，
33:11 - 33:15
EN: they’re giving up and they’re part of the reason
ZH: 结果放弃在最低点，这也是恐慌抛售的原因之一
33:13 - 33:15
EN: why the market sold off like this.
ZH: 结果放弃在最低点，这也是恐慌抛售的原因之一
33:15 - 33:19
EN: Strong bulls, they see this and they understand what’s going on.
ZH: 而强多头，他们看到价格行为，明白市场在做什么
33:19 - 33:21
EN: They know the strong bears are going to have to buy back shorts.
ZH: 他们知道强空头将要回补止盈
33:21 - 33:24
EN: The strong bulls buy, looking for at least a scalp up,
ZH: 所以强多头买入，至少做一笔剥头皮交易
33:24 - 33:27
EN: maybe a test of the top of the Sell Climax.
ZH: 预期时常会测试抛售高潮的起跌点
33:32 - 33:37
EN: The strong bears, they’re not going to buy
ZH: 如果强空头打算在一两根K线之后就再次卖出， 那么他们就没必要离场
33:35 - 33:37
EN: if they’re planning on selling again a bar or two later.
ZH: 如果强空头打算在一两根K线之后就再次卖出， 那么他们就没必要离场
33:37 - 33:43
EN: They’re buying because they think the market’s
ZH: 他们止盈离场，是因为他们认为市场会 有两段10K的震荡甚至反弹
33:39 - 33:43
EN: going to go sideways to up for maybe 10 bars and two legs.
ZH: 他们止盈离场，是因为他们认为市场会 有两段10K的震荡甚至反弹
33:47 - 33:49
EN: There’s no one left to sell at this price.
ZH: 所以在这里没有足够的卖盘（注：弱多头卖出止损， 弱空头卖出做空，但是他们不足以让市场继续下跌）
33:49 - 33:51
EN: The strong bears are buying.
ZH: 强空头正在买入止盈
33:51 - 33:54
EN: There are not enough weak bears to drive the market down.
ZH: 凭借弱空头是无法维持下降趋势的
33:54 - 33:59
EN: The weak bulls gave up and caused this bar, or at least contributed to this bar,
ZH: 弱多头恐慌离场，导致，或者说至少促成了这根大阴线的加速下跌
33:59 - 34:06
EN: and they’re gone, and all that’s left are strong bulls buying
ZH: 所以弱多头已经离场，所以剩下的都是强多头在买入， 做剥头皮交易；以及买入止盈的强空头
34:03 - 34:06
EN: for a scalp and strong bears buying to take profits.
ZH: 所以弱多头已经离场，所以剩下的都是强多头在买入， 做剥头皮交易；以及买入止盈的强空头
34:10 - 34:15
EN: A brief opportunity for the bulls to buy at a very low price with not much risk.
ZH: 对于多头来说，这是一个短暂的机会， 可以用很低的价格买入，而且风险并不大
34:16 - 34:19
EN: The bulls and bears are both buying,
ZH: （强）多头和空头都在买入
34:19 - 34:23
EN: expecting maybe two legs, 10 bars sideways to up.
ZH: 期待横盘或上涨的两段10K
34:24 - 34:26
EN: When the rally is reasonably strong like this,
ZH: 当反弹这么相当强势的时候，
34:26 - 34:30
EN: the bears are not going to sell again.
ZH: 空头（在短时间内）不会再次卖出； 多头看到了这一点，所以继续买入
34:28 - 34:30
EN: The bulls see that and they buy.
ZH: 空头（在短时间内）不会再次卖出； 多头看到了这一点，所以继续买入
34:30 - 34:34
EN: They expect this attempt at bear trend resumption to fail,
ZH: 他们不认为下降趋势会恢复
34:34 - 34:37
EN: so the bulls buy looking for another leg up.
ZH: 所以买入，期待至少再有一段上涨
Slide 021
Time: 34:40
Bilingual Transcript
34:42 - 34:45
EN: The bulls who buy this close or this reversal up,
ZH: 在大阴线收盘买入，或者在反转上涨时买入，
34:45 - 34:49
EN: or this or that, their risk is not that great.
ZH: 比如这里或那里，这些多头的风险不大
34:49 - 34:50
EN: Stop maybe down here.
ZH: 止损放在这里
34:51 - 34:54
EN: They’re bulls looking for great risk/reward.
ZH: 他们期待的是好的盈亏比
34:55 - 34:57
EN: Big reward, low risk.
ZH: 潜在利润很大，风险低
34:57 - 34:59
EN: That always comes with low probability.
ZH: 但代价通常是低胜率
34:59 - 35:02
EN: Buying this reversal or these reversals,
ZH: 在这里或这里买入做反转，
35:02 - 35:04
EN: not a high probability that you’re going to make money.
ZH: 赚钱的概率并不高
35:06 - 35:11
EN: However, if you buy after a strong reversal up here or buy closes here,
ZH: 然而，如果你在强势反转之后，在这里买入， 或者在它的收盘买入
35:11 - 35:14
EN: high probability that the market will go at least a little bit higher
ZH: 很大的概率市场至少会再上涨一些
35:14 - 35:16
EN: - but the stop is further away.
ZH: ——但止损较远
35:16 - 35:20
EN: Buying late after you see this strong breakout, higher probability
ZH: 在看到这个强势突破后再买入，
35:20 - 35:24
EN: that you make money, but the risk/reward ratio is worse.
ZH: 赚钱的胜率更高，但是盈亏比变差了
35:24 - 35:26
EN: The stop is usually further away.
ZH: 止损通常较远
35:26 - 35:27
EN: Bigger risk.
ZH: 风险更大
35:28 - 35:32
EN: There’s less profit remaining in the trade, so smaller reward.
ZH: 交易中剩余的利润较少，所以回报较小
35:32 - 35:34
EN: It doesn’t matter whether you buy down here,
ZH: 无论哪种方法，你在这里买入，
35:34 - 35:39
EN: with the good risk/reward ratio and low probability, or up here,
ZH: 盈亏比好，但是胜率低；
35:39 - 35:41
EN: with the good probability and the bad risk/reward.
ZH: 或者在这里买入，胜率高，但是盈亏比差
35:41 - 35:44
EN: Both are profitable strategies.
ZH: 两者都是可以盈利的策略 （注：数学期望都是好的）
35:50 - 35:57
EN: I want to talk about something that is important in thinking
ZH: 接下来我想讲一下，判断竭尽型缺口和测量型缺口时 一件非常重要的事情
Slide 022
Time: 35:50
Bilingual Transcript
35:54 - 35:57
EN: about Exhaustion Gaps and possibly Measuring Gaps.
ZH: 接下来我想讲一下，判断竭尽型缺口和测量型缺口时 一件非常重要的事情
35:58 - 36:04
EN: I have two examples here of bull trends that have a big bar late in the trend.
ZH: 这里有两个上涨趋势的案例， 它们都在趋势后期出现了大阳线
36:05 - 36:09
EN: Here’s another bull trend, and now we have a big bar late in the trend.
ZH: 这个上涨趋势，后期也出现了大阳线
36:12 - 36:15
EN: The market’s in a bull channel here, and it’s breaking out.
ZH: 这里，市场出于上涨通道，而且正在突破
36:15 - 36:16
EN: There’s a tighter channel here.
ZH: 这里有一个更小的通道
36:19 - 36:24
EN: The market is clearly breaking strongly above the top of this tighter channel.
ZH: 市场显然强势突破了这个小通道的顶部
36:24 - 36:30
EN: The bigger channel I drew as a bull trend line, and then I dragged a parallel
ZH: 这个更大的通道，我先画了一条上涨趋势线，
36:30 - 36:34
EN: that is parallel to it and containing most of the bars in the line.
ZH: 然后把平行线拖到上方，把大部分K线包含在内部
36:34 - 36:38
EN: In any case, there’s an acceleration upward late in the trend.
ZH: 总之，趋势在后期加速上涨
36:41 - 36:44
EN: A few bars later we have a bear bar closing on its low
ZH: 几根K线之后，有一根阴线收盘在低位，
36:44 - 36:47
EN: with a pretty good size body, so it’s a Micro Double Top.
ZH: 它的体积非常大； 而且这里有一个小双顶
36:47 - 36:49
EN: We went up, we paused, we went up again,
ZH: 上涨、暂停；再次上涨，
36:49 - 36:52
EN: and we reversed down, closing on its low.
ZH: 反转下跌，大阴线收在低位
36:52 - 36:56
EN: Once you have that bar and then this bar goes below that low,
ZH: 一旦下1根K线跌破它的低点
36:56 - 36:59
EN: there’s a 70% chance you’re going to get a swing down,
ZH: 70%的概率会有一个下跌的波段
36:59 - 37:02
EN: that you’ll fall below the bottom of the channel.
ZH: 至少会跌到通道的下沿
37:02 - 37:04
EN: You get to the bottom of the Buy Climax bar,
ZH: 跌到抢购高潮（即这根大阳线）的起涨点
37:04 - 37:07
EN: you get to the bottom of the most recent breakout at a minimum.
ZH: 跌到最近一段上涨的起涨点
37:09 - 37:12
EN: Therefore, traders should sell a reversal down.
ZH: 所以交易者卖出做空
37:12 - 37:16
EN: If you’re long, you definitely have to get out below the low of that bear bar.
ZH: 如果你是多头，你绝对需要在那个阴线的低点下方离场
37:17 - 37:21
EN: If you’re interested in shorting, you would short below the low of that bear bar
ZH: 如果你想要做空，可以在那个阴线的低点下方开仓卖出
37:21 - 37:24
EN: – or you’d wait for maybe 3 consecutive bear bars and then short the market
ZH: 或者等看到连续3根阴线之后市价卖出做空
37:24 - 37:28
EN: or short below the low of that third bear bar, which closed on its low.
ZH: 或者在第3根阴线的下方卖出做空，它收在最低
37:30 - 37:32
EN: Compare that to this.
ZH: 和它作为对比
37:33 - 37:36
EN: A very big bull bar late in a bull trend.
ZH: 上涨趋势后期出现了非常大的阳线
37:36 - 37:38
EN: This trend actually began much further to the left.
ZH: 这个上涨趋势其实早就开始了， 只不过更左边的图没有显示
37:40 - 37:44
EN: However, this bull bar is also breaking above a Trading Range.
ZH: 然而，这根阳线也是对这个震荡区间的突破
37:44 - 37:46
EN: 20 bars, 30 bars sideways.
ZH: 横盘持续了20~30根K线
37:49 - 37:53
EN: When that is the case, you have a 60% chance of a Measured Move up.
ZH: 在这种情况下，有60%的概率会上涨到MM目标位
37:53 - 37:56
EN: Rather than looking for a reversal down,
ZH: 与其做空期待反转，
37:56 - 37:59
EN: you should be expecting follow-through buying
ZH: 不如预期会有跟随的买盘
37:59 - 38:03
EN: - at least a small second leg up and possibly a trend up, and at a minimum,
ZH: ——至少有小的第2段上涨，甚至可能是新的上涨趋势
38:03 - 38:05
EN: a Measured Move based upon the height of the Trading Range.
ZH: 至少是基于震荡区间高度的MM目标位
38:09 - 38:14
EN: You can buy either the close of this bar, the close of the follow-through bar
ZH: 你可以在它的收盘买入， 或者在跟随K线的收盘买入，因为它不是强势的阴线
38:12 - 38:16
EN: if it’s not a pretty good bear bar, or you can buy above the high of this bar
ZH: 你可以在它的收盘买入， 或者在跟随K线的收盘买入，因为它不是强势的阴线 或者可以在这根K线的高点上方买入
38:16 - 38:20
EN: or above the high of any pause bar – like above this bar or above that bar.
ZH: 或者可以在任何暂停K线的的高点上方买入—— 比如这根K线或那根K线的上方
38:25 - 38:31
EN: The rally began as a bull leg in a Trading Range, and then it broke out.
ZH: 一开始是震荡区间中的上涨波段，然后向上突破
38:31 - 38:39
EN: This then became the beginning of trend resumption up from the bull trend
ZH: 震荡区间形成之前的上涨趋势，现在得以恢复
38:36 - 38:39
EN: that was taking place before the Trading Range formed.
ZH: 震荡区间形成之前的上涨趋势，现在得以恢复
38:44 - 38:47
EN: This is the opposite situation.
ZH: 和左边是相反的情况
Slide 023
Time: 38:45
Bilingual Transcript
38:47 - 38:49
EN: Again, context affects probabilities.
ZH: 再次强调，背景会影响概率
38:49 - 38:52
EN: Context is all of the bars to the left.
ZH: 背景就是指左边所有的K线
38:52 - 38:55
EN: We have a bear breakout here, we have a bear breakout here,
ZH: 这里是空头突破，这里也是空头突破
38:55 - 38:57
EN: but the context is different.
ZH: 但它们所处的背景不同
38:59 - 39:03
EN: We have a bear channel, and we’re getting a breakout below the bear channel
ZH: 下降通道，正在加速向下跌破
39:03 - 39:06
EN: - and not only are we getting a breakout below the bear channel,
ZH: ——不仅仅加速跌破下降通道，
39:06 - 39:10
EN: it’s the biggest pair of bear bars in the entire bear trend.
ZH: 而且它们是整个下降趋势中体积最大的两根阴线
39:13 - 39:17
EN: And then we have a very good bull reversal bar closing on its high.
ZH: 然后出现了一根非常好的反转阳线，收在最高
39:17 - 39:22
EN: Once the market goes above that bull bar, there’s a 70% chance of a swing up,
ZH: 一旦那个阳线的最高点被突破， 70%的概率会有上涨的波段
39:22 - 39:27
EN: at least to the top of the channel and to the top of the Sell Climax
ZH: 至少涨到通道的上沿，或者抛售高潮的起跌点
39:27 - 39:30
EN: and possibly up to the top of the bear leg.
ZH: 可能一直涨到这个下跌波段的起跌点
39:32 - 39:37
EN: Bulls will buy a reversal up, or they’ll wait for 2 or 3 bull bars
ZH: 多头会买入做反转，或者等看到2或3根阳线
39:37 - 39:41
EN: and then buy closes or buy above the high of that pause bar.
ZH: 然后在阳线的收盘买入， 或者在暂停K线的高点上方买入
39:45 - 39:46
EN: Look at this.
ZH: 在看这个
39:46 - 39:50
EN: We have at this point the biggest bear bar in the entire bear trend.
ZH: 到目前为止，它是整个下降趋势中体积最大的阴线
39:50 - 39:52
EN: This trend began many bars earlier.
ZH: 这个趋势在更早之前就开始了
39:52 - 39:55
EN: It was a bear trend and then it entered a Trading Range.
ZH: 下降趋势，然后进入震荡区间
39:55 - 39:57
EN: It tried to reverse into a bull trend.
ZH: 多头尝试反转，制造上涨趋势
39:58 - 40:03
EN: What’s different about this big bear bar is not only is it in a bear trend,
ZH: 这个大阴线的不同之处在于，它不仅处于下降趋势
40:03 - 40:08
EN: it’s also breaking below a Trading Range, and that increases the chances
ZH: 它也跌破了这个震荡区间，
40:08 - 40:13
EN: that it’s going to lead to a Measured Move down
ZH: 增加了会加速跌到MM目标位的概率
40:10 - 40:13
EN: and an acceleration of the bear trend.
ZH: 增加了会加速跌到MM目标位的概率
40:17 - 40:22
EN: Big bear bar late in a bear trend – bear trend began way up over here
ZH: 下降趋势后期的大阴线——下降趋势早在这里就开始了
40:22 - 40:27
EN: - but it’s also breaking below maybe a 30 or 40 bar Trading Range.
ZH: 但它也跌破了这个30~40根K线的震荡区间
40:27 - 40:30
EN: 60% chance of a Measured Move down,
ZH: 60%的概率会跌到MM目标位
40:30 - 40:33
EN: especially once the next bar has a bear body.
ZH: 尤其当下一根K线也是阴线的时候
40:33 - 40:37
EN: Big bear bar closing well below the bottom of the range
ZH: 大阴线收盘远低于震荡区间
40:37 - 40:39
EN: followed by a bar with a bear body.
ZH: 跟随K线也是阴线
40:44 - 40:51
EN: Traders will sell below the low of that bear bar or sell the close
ZH: 交易者会在那个阴线的低点下方卖出， 或者在跟随阴线的收盘卖出，或者在那根K线的低点下方卖出
40:48 - 40:51
EN: of the follow-through bar or sell below the low of that bar.
ZH: 交易者会在那个阴线的低点下方卖出， 或者在跟随阴线的收盘卖出，或者在那根K线的低点下方卖出
40:51 - 40:53
EN: We have an even bigger bear bar,
ZH: 这根阴线的体积更大
40:53 - 40:56
EN: by far the biggest bear bar late in a bear trend.
ZH: 是下降趋势中，到目前为止最大的阴线
40:56 - 40:58
EN: Possibly exhaustion.
ZH: 可能即将衰竭
40:58 - 41:03
EN: It’s a second leg down – one, pause, two – but no good buy signal here,
ZH: 算是第2段下跌——1，暂停，2—— 但是没有好的做多背景和信号（MM到了，空头止盈反弹）
41:03 - 41:05
EN: and therefore the bears would stay short
ZH: 所以空头会继续做空
41:05 - 41:09
EN: and trend will probably continue further down.
ZH: 大概率还会再下跌
41:14 - 41:17
EN: We have a bear trend and then a Trading Range.
ZH: 下降趋势，然后进入震荡区间
41:17 - 41:21
EN: We tried to get a bull trend reversal, and then we had a selloff.
ZH: 多头尝试反转，但是不断下跌
41:21 - 41:27
EN: A lot of dojis.
ZH: 这里有很多十字星，看起来像是震荡区间中的下跌波段， 但是出现了这根大阴线
41:22 - 41:27
EN: It looks like a bear leg in a Trading Range, and then we get that big bear bar.
ZH: 这里有很多十字星，看起来像是震荡区间中的下跌波段， 但是出现了这根大阴线
41:28 - 41:32
EN: This was a bear leg in a Trading Range, and once we had this,
ZH: 到这里为止是震荡区间中的下跌波段， 一旦这根大阴线出现
41:32 - 41:37
EN: this was probably the beginning of a resumption of the prior bear trend.
ZH: 很可能之前的下降趋势要开始恢复了
41:41 - 41:44
EN: I began by talking about climactic reversals:
ZH: 这节课我先讲了高潮反转——
41:45 - 41:48
EN: a big trend bar late in a trend leading to a reversal.
ZH: 趋势后期的大K线导致反转
Slide 024
Time: 41:45
Bilingual Transcript
41:49 - 41:51
EN: Usually it leads to a sideways move,
ZH: 通常更多的是横盘震荡
41:51 - 41:53
EN: but sometimes it leads to an opposite trend.
ZH: 但有时候会反转成相反的趋势
41:54 - 41:56
EN: I finished up by talking about gaps: an Exhaustion Gap
ZH: 然后我讲了缺口：竭尽型缺口——
41:56 - 42:01
EN: - a big trend bar late in a trend leading to an end of the trend
ZH: 趋势后期的大K线，导致趋势衰竭、结束
42:01 - 42:05
EN: - or Measuring Gaps – a big trend bar late in a trend
ZH: 还有测量型缺口——也是趋势后期的大K线
42:05 - 42:08
EN: leading to a resumption of the trend and a Measured Move.
ZH: 但背景不同，趋势恢复，到达MM目标位
42:13 - 42:14
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
42:14 - 42:16
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
42:16 - 42:20
EN: This is the third of five videos on climaxes.
ZH: 高潮的第3节课，就先讲到这里