al-brooks-course
26A - Triangles
Raw transcript and slide notes for 26A - Triangles.
Overview
- Slides: 20
- Transcript segments: 536
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:08
EN: This is the first of two videos on Triangles.
ZH: 接下来的两节课我们来讲三角形
Slide 001
Time: 00:10
Bilingual Transcript
00:12 - 00:15
EN: I’ll begin by explaining what I mean by a Triangle.
ZH: 首先我会讲我对三角形的定义
00:15 - 00:20
EN: My definition is broader than that used by many traders.
ZH: 我对三角形的定义会比其它交易者更加广泛
00:20 - 00:27
EN: I’ll then talk about Wedges, which is basically a Triangle
ZH: 然后我会再讲一下楔形，其实就是略微向上或向下倾斜的三角形
00:23 - 00:27
EN: that’s sloped somewhat up or somewhat down.
ZH: 然后我会再讲一下楔形，其实就是略微向上或向下倾斜的三角形
00:27 - 00:32
EN: All Triangles can lead to a reversal or a continuation.
ZH: 三角形之后，趋势可能继续，也可能反转
00:32 - 00:37
EN: In other words, they can be a reversal pattern or a flag in a trend.
ZH: 换句话说，三角形可以是反转结构， 也可以是趋势中的旗形
Slide 002
Time: 00:38
Bilingual Transcript
00:40 - 00:43
EN: I’m continuing my list of reversal patterns.
ZH: 我们继续按照这个反转结构的列表来讲
00:43 - 00:48
EN: This is about Triangles, and as I’ve said with all the other videos,
ZH: 现在讲到三角形；就和我之前说的一样，
00:48 - 00:51
EN: most reversal patterns require Trading Ranges.
ZH: 大部分反转都需要震荡区间（过渡）
00:51 - 00:55
EN: The market usually does not go from one trend into an opposite trend.
ZH: 市场通常不会直接从一个趋势反转到相反的趋势
00:55 - 00:59
EN: It usually has to transition into a sideways market first.
ZH: 通常需要以横盘的方式过渡
01:02 - 01:05
EN: I use a broad definition for a Triangle.
ZH: 我对三角形的定义很广泛
Slide 003
Time: 01:05
Bilingual Transcript
01:05 - 01:10
EN: Any sideways move with three pushes up or down is a Triangle.
ZH: 任何包含3次向上或向下推动的横盘，都是三角形
01:11 - 01:14
EN: If you have three pushes up, you have at least two pushes down.
ZH: 如果有3次向上推动，那么至少有两次向下推动
01:15 - 01:18
EN: The minimum requirement, then, for a Triangle is five legs.
ZH: 所以三角形的最低要求是有5段推动
01:19 - 01:20
EN: It’s a sideways pattern.
ZH: 三角形是横向的
01:20 - 01:24
EN: It can be contracting; the legs could be getting smaller.
ZH: 可以是收敛三角形——每一段的幅度都越来越小
01:24 - 01:29
EN: It can be ascending; the top could be flat and the bottom could be rising.
ZH: 可以是上升三角形——上沿是平的，下沿低点抬高
01:29 - 01:36
EN: It can be descending; the bottom can be relatively flat
ZH: 可以是下降三角形——下沿是平的，上沿高点降低
01:33 - 01:36
EN: and the top can be falling.
ZH: 可以是下降三角形——下沿是平的，上沿高点降低
01:36 - 01:39
EN: It can be expanding; the legs can be getting bigger.
ZH: 可以是扩张三角形——每一段的幅度越来越大
01:40 - 01:46
EN: Any Triangle that’s sloped somewhat up or somewhat down
ZH: 如果不是横向的三角形，而是向上或向下倾斜， 那就是楔形
01:43 - 01:46
EN: instead of being sideways is a Wedge.
ZH: 如果不是横向的三角形，而是向上或向下倾斜， 那就是楔形
Slide 004
Time: 01:48
Bilingual Transcript
01:50 - 01:53
EN: A Triangle is a type of a Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 三角形是一种窄震荡区间
01:53 - 01:55
EN: It’s a channel contained between two lines,
ZH: 它处于两条线之间的通道里，
01:55 - 01:58
EN: and the two lines most often are converging.
ZH: 而这两条线通常是收敛的
01:58 - 02:01
EN: The legs are getting smaller.
ZH: 每一段的幅度越来越小
02:04 - 02:08
EN: As soon as I see a Tight Trading Range with at least three legs
ZH: 当我看到窄震荡区间在某一个方向上至少有3推
02:07 - 02:10
EN: in one direction, I start to use the term “Triangle.”
ZH: 当我看到窄震荡区间在某一个方向上至少有3推 我就称之为三角形
02:10 - 02:12
EN: But it doesn’t really matter.
ZH: 它叫什么并不重要
02:12 - 02:14
EN: I could simply call it a Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 也可以直接说它是窄震荡区间
02:16 - 02:19
EN: In fact, if it doesn’t look much like a Triangle at all,
ZH: 如果看上去没有三角形的形状，
02:19 - 02:22
EN: I usually just call it a Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 我就直接说它是窄震荡区间
02:25 - 02:29
EN: Here we have a bear trend, and then the market
ZH: 市场之前处于下降趋势， 然后横盘进入了一个相当窄的区间
02:27 - 02:29
EN: went sideways in a fairly tight range.
ZH: 市场之前处于下降趋势， 然后横盘进入了一个相当窄的区间
02:31 - 02:35
EN: Three pushes down, one, two, three or three.
ZH: 3次向下推动——1，2，3，或者3
02:35 - 02:38
EN: That’s the minimum that I need to start using the term “Triangle.”
ZH: （3推）是三角形的最低要求
02:41 - 02:46
EN: In this case we also have three pushes up – one, two, and then three.
ZH: 这里同时也有3次向上的推动——1，2，然后3
02:46 - 02:49
EN: All I need is three pushes up or down.
ZH: 向上或者向下3次推动，就符合条件了
02:50 - 02:54
EN: As soon as you have three one way, you always have at least two the other way.
ZH: 如果朝一个方向有3次推动， 那么另外一个方向肯定有两次推动
02:55 - 03:00
EN: Then I can draw lines, and there are usually many ways to draw the lines.
ZH: 然后就可以画通道线，通常有不同的选择
03:00 - 03:04
EN: I can use this for one, two, and three, and then you can say
ZH: 可以这样1，2，3，
03:04 - 03:07
EN: it had a bear breakout and then an attempt at a bull breakout
ZH: 尝试向下突破，再尝试向上突破
03:07 - 03:10
EN: - both failed – and then a successful bear breakout.
ZH: ——都失败了，最终向下跌破
03:10 - 03:14
EN: Here, one, two, three, three reversals down.
ZH: 这里，1，2，3； 3次向下反转
03:14 - 03:15
EN: Here, three reversals up.
ZH: 这里，3次向上反转
03:18 - 03:22
EN: Again, it doesn’t matter if you call it a Triangle or a Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 不管你说它是三角形，还是窄震荡区间，这不是关键
03:22 - 03:24
EN: Both are BreakOut Mode setups.
ZH: 关键是：两者都是突破模式
03:25 - 03:27
EN: 50/50 chance you’ll get a bear breakout,
ZH: 50%的概率向下突破
03:27 - 03:29
EN: 50/50 chance you’ll get a bull breakout,
ZH: 50%的概率向上突破
03:29 - 03:33
EN: and 50/50 chance the first breakout will fail,
ZH: 第1次突破50%的概率会失败
03:33 - 03:35
EN: and the market will go in the opposite direction.
ZH: 然后市场会朝相反的方向移动
Slide 005
Time: 03:40
Bilingual Transcript
03:41 - 03:49
EN: In general, there’s always a slightly greater probability
ZH: 通常来说，顺着前期趋势突破的概率会更高一些
03:45 - 03:49
EN: that the trend that preceded the Triangle will continue.
ZH: 通常来说，顺着前期趋势突破的概率会更高一些
03:49 - 03:54
EN: If you have a Triangle in a bear trend, even if it has 20 or 30 bars,
ZH: 如果下降趋势中出现了三角形， 就算它持续了20~30根K线，
03:54 - 03:58
EN: there’s always a slightly greater chance
ZH: 市场继续下跌的概率总是略微更大一些
03:56 - 03:58
EN: that the market will break to the down side.
ZH: 市场继续下跌的概率总是略微更大一些
03:58 - 04:03
EN: Once you start to get 20, 30, 40 bars, the probability gets very close to 50/50.
ZH: 一旦震荡持续20、30、40根K线， 概率就非常接近50对50
04:03 - 04:08
EN: At some point it’s totally unclear, and the probability is 50/50.
ZH: 在某些时候是完全不知道的，完全是50对50
04:12 - 04:15
EN: A Trading Range, a tight range is a magnet.
ZH: 震荡区间是磁铁
04:15 - 04:17
EN: The market is happy in this price.
ZH: 市场对这个价格感到满意
04:17 - 04:19
EN: Both bulls and bears think the value is good.
ZH: 多空双方都认为这个价格很好
04:19 - 04:21
EN: The bears think it’s a good price to sell,
ZH: 空头认为在这里卖出很合算
04:21 - 04:24
EN: the bulls think it’s a good price to buy.
ZH: 多头认为在这里买入很合算
04:24 - 04:27
EN: If the market gets outside of the range,
ZH: 如果价格超出了这个区间
04:27 - 04:29
EN: the market often quickly gets back to the range.
ZH: 通常很快又会回来
04:29 - 04:31
EN: This is an area of agreement.
ZH: 这是一个共识区域
04:31 - 04:35
EN: It probed down here, and the traders decided “Uhh, it’s too low”.
ZH: 跌到下面，交易者认为：“额，这个价格太低了”
04:36 - 04:39
EN: Not enough bears want to sell here, so it has to go back up.
ZH: 没有人愿意在这么低的价格卖出，所以只能上涨
04:39 - 04:42
EN: You can see it went sideways more at that price level.
ZH: 可以看到，市场在这个区域继续横盘了一段上涨
04:42 - 04:44
EN: Finally, it broke to the up side.
ZH: 最终向上突破
04:46 - 04:51
EN: Any time you have a Triangle late in a trend, it usually is the Final Flag.
ZH: 每当趋势后期出现了三角形， 它很有可能是末端旗形
04:51 - 04:55
EN: Usually the breakout does not go very far and the market reverses back
ZH: 突破之后走不了多远，会回到震荡区间
04:55 - 04:59
EN: into the Trading Range, to the Triangle, the apex of the Triangle.
ZH: 测试三角形的顶点
04:59 - 05:01
EN: And then it decides what to do next.
ZH: 然后再决定接下来该做什么
05:01 - 05:03
EN: Here we have a Lower Low Major Trend Reversal
ZH: 这里先是低点降低的大反转，
05:03 - 05:08
EN: and then a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal, and the bulls got a trend.
ZH: 然后是低点抬高的大反转， 最终进入上涨趋势
05:13 - 05:20
EN: Again, any time the market goes sideways late in a trend,
ZH: 再次强调，趋势后期的横盘震荡，通常是末端旗形
05:17 - 05:20
EN: it usually is the Final Flag.
ZH: 再次强调，趋势后期的横盘震荡，通常是末端旗形
05:20 - 05:25
EN: After the market breaks out, the market either remains
ZH: 市场突破后，要么回来继续震荡，要么反转
05:22 - 05:25
EN: in a Trading Range or you get a reversal.
ZH: 市场突破后，要么回来继续震荡，要么反转
05:26 - 05:31
EN: A Triangle late in a bear trend usually is the final bear flag.
ZH: 下降趋势后期的三角形通常是末端熊旗
05:32 - 05:37
EN: Because it’s a magnet, a breakout usually fails within about 5 bars
ZH: 因为它是磁铁，突破通常会在大约5根K线内失败
05:37 - 05:41
EN: and the market gets pulled back into this area of agreement.
ZH: 然后价格被拉回到这个共识区域
05:44 - 05:47
EN: Reversal down, another reversal down.
ZH: 下跌，下跌
05:47 - 05:51
EN: Traders can draw a line, and you can see the line is descending.
ZH: 画一条线，可以看到这条线是下降的
05:52 - 05:55
EN: That warns traders of a possible contracting Triangle.
ZH: 这提醒交易者，可能是一个收敛的三角形
05:55 - 05:58
EN: Initially, reversal up, second reversal up.
ZH: 一开始，这个低点，这个低点
05:58 - 06:03
EN: I would draw the line using this low, but then when we reversed up here,
ZH: 我会把它们连起来； 但是这个低点出现之后，
06:03 - 06:07
EN: I would change the line here and I would call it a contracting Triangle.
ZH: 我会重新画线，连接1和3，把它看作一个收敛三角形
06:07 - 06:10
EN: Again, it doesn’t matter what you call it.
ZH: 再次强调，叫它什么并不重要
06:10 - 06:14
EN: All that matters, is that you’re in a Tight Trading Range late in the trend.
ZH: 重要的是，市场在趋势后期进入了窄震荡区间
06:14 - 06:18
EN: This is a magnet, and chances are it’ll be the final bear flag
ZH: 它是磁铁，很有可能是末端熊旗，
06:18 - 06:22
EN: before the market either enters a Trading Range or attempts to reverse.
ZH: 市场接下来可能继续震荡，或者尝试反转上涨
Slide 006
Time: 06:24
Bilingual Transcript
06:28 - 06:32
EN: An ascending Triangle is a horizontal Trading Range
ZH: 上涨三角形，是横向的震荡区间
06:32 - 06:40
EN: where the top is relatively flat, but there’s a bull trend line
ZH: 它的上沿是相对水平的，但下沿略微倾斜向上， 像一条上涨趋势线
06:37 - 06:40
EN: along the bottom, a line that goes up a little bit.
ZH: 它的上沿是相对水平的，但下沿略微倾斜向上， 像一条上涨趋势线
06:42 - 06:47
EN: Reversal down, reversal down, reversal down, three pushes down.
ZH: 下跌，下跌，下跌，3次向下推动
06:47 - 06:50
EN: Reversal up, reversal up, reversal up.
ZH: 上涨，上涨，上涨
06:50 - 06:54
EN: Initially I would draw the line using this and this,
ZH: 一开始我会连接这两个点（1和3）
06:54 - 06:56
EN: and it would be still a bull channel,
ZH: 此时市场仍然处于上涨通道
06:57 - 07:01
EN: and initially I would draw the bottom line here and here.
ZH: 而下沿是这两个点的连线
07:01 - 07:07
EN: But once I see a third reversal, I usually ignore the second even though it may
ZH: 但当我看到第3个低点时，我通常会忽略第2个低点，
07:07 - 07:10
EN: sometimes extend below the line, and this is how I would do it.
ZH: 尽管它可能“凸刺”到了线的外面
07:10 - 07:13
EN: So, we got a third reversal down here.
ZH: 上沿也是一样，第3次下跌
07:13 - 07:17
EN: I would use one, one here and then this to draw lines
ZH: 我会把它和1连起来，
07:17 - 07:21
EN: and view that as an outlier, and this as an outlier as well.
ZH: 并把它看作是一个“凸刺”，就像它一样
07:21 - 07:24
EN: It doesn’t matter how you draw the lines.
ZH: 到底怎么画线并不重要
07:24 - 07:27
EN: It’s a Trading Range that has at least three reversals up
ZH: 重要的是这个震荡区间有至少3次反转上涨，
07:27 - 07:31
EN: or three reversals down, and therefore I would call it a Triangle.
ZH: 或3次反转下跌，所以我把它看作是三角形
07:33 - 07:39
EN: 50% chance you’ll get a bull breakout, and 50% chance you’ll get trend reversal.
ZH: 50%的概率会向上突破，50%的概率会向下突破
07:39 - 07:43
EN: 50% the first breakout up or down will fail.
ZH: 第1次向上或向下的突破，有50%的概率会失败
07:43 - 07:48
EN: In this case we got a trend reversal, and it went down for 6 or 7 bars
ZH: 在这个案例中，趋势反转下跌， 跌了大约6~7根K线后，
07:48 - 07:52
EN: and then sideways and formed a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 略微横盘，形成了低点抬高的大反转
07:52 - 07:54
EN: Bear trend, bull breakout.
ZH: 下降趋势，多头突破
07:54 - 07:57
EN: ABC pullback to a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: ABC回调（即两段式回调）之后， 形成低点抬高的大反转
08:00 - 08:04
EN: Again, initially I would use a line with this reversal
ZH: 一开始我会用这两个高点来画线（粉红色线）
08:04 - 08:07
EN: and that reversal, and this reversal and that reversal.
ZH: 下沿会连接这两个低点
08:07 - 08:09
EN: It doesn’t matter how you draw it;
ZH: 但怎么画线不是最重要的
08:09 - 08:13
EN: it’s still mostly a sideways pattern fairly late in a rally.
ZH: 重要的是上涨后期进入了横盘震荡
08:13 - 08:15
EN: It’s a BreakOut Mode pattern.
ZH: 这是一个突破模式
08:15 - 08:20
EN: It lasted more than 20 bars, had at least three reversals down
ZH: 它持续了超过20根K线，有至少3次向下的推动， 和3次向上的推动
08:19 - 08:20
EN: and three reversals up.
ZH: 它持续了超过20根K线，有至少3次向下的推动， 和3次向上的推动
08:25 - 08:29
EN: My general rule is any time you have a Trading Range that lasts 20 or more bars,
ZH: 我的通用法则是，当一个震荡区间持续了20根或更多K线之后
08:29 - 08:33
EN: there’s a 50/50 chance that the breakout will be up or down.
ZH: 向上向下突破的概率都是50%
08:33 - 08:38
EN: Remember, it would not be doing that if one side had an advantage.
ZH: 因为如果某一方有优势的话，就不会震荡这么久了
08:38 - 08:43
EN: In general, I think the clear trend before the Trading Range
ZH: 通常来说，如果震荡区间的前面是明确、强势的趋势，
08:43 - 08:54
EN: has a slightly greater chance of resuming, but once you get 20, 30,
ZH: 那么顺势突破的概率会略微大一点， 然而一旦震荡持续20、30、40根K线， 前期的趋势就已经不太重要了
08:48 - 08:54
EN: 40 bars in a Tight Trading Range, it doesn’t really matter too much
ZH: 然而一旦震荡持续20、30、40根K线， 前期的趋势就已经不太重要了
08:52 - 08:54
EN: what the trend before it looks like.
ZH: 然而一旦震荡持续20、30、40根K线， 前期的趋势就已经不太重要了
08:54 - 08:59
EN: The market has a 50/50 chance of going up, 50/50 chance of going down.
ZH: 市场50%的概率会上涨，50%的概率会下跌
09:05 - 09:09
EN: A descending Triangle, the bottom of the channel is flat,
ZH: 下降三角形，通道的下沿是水平的
Slide 007
Time: 09:05
Bilingual Transcript
09:09 - 09:12
EN: and the top of the channel has Lower Highs (a bear trend line).
ZH: 上沿的高点在降低（像下降趋势线）
09:14 - 09:19
EN: Reversal down, reversal down, reversal down here or here, so it’s a Triangle.
ZH: 下跌，下跌，下跌，下跌，所以这是一个三角形
09:19 - 09:21
EN: I have three pushes down.
ZH: 有至少3次向下的推动
09:21 - 09:24
EN: That means there are always at least two pushes up.
ZH: 所以至少有两次向上的推动
09:24 - 09:29
EN: Again, I start using here and this to draw a line
ZH: 还是一样，一开始我会连接这两个点（2和4）
09:29 - 09:31
EN: - it would be slightly descending.
ZH: 这条线就会略微向下倾斜
09:31 - 09:32
EN: Then we tried to bounce here.
ZH: 然后价格在这里有一些反弹
09:32 - 09:37
EN: I would change the line using this reversal attempt and this and ignore Point 4.
ZH: 我会重新画线，忽略当中的点4
09:37 - 09:41
EN: Here we got a reversal down, reversal down, a third reversal down.
ZH: 下跌，下跌，第3次下跌，
09:41 - 09:43
EN: We’re trying to get a bull breakout here.
ZH: 这里多头尝试向上突破
09:43 - 09:45
EN: 50/50 chance the breakout will fail.
ZH: 50%的概率突破会失败
09:45 - 09:46
EN: It did.
ZH: 失败了
09:46 - 09:51
EN: Then we tried going the other way, and the bears got a successful bear breakout.
ZH: 然后向另一个方向移动，成功地向下跌破
09:56 - 10:02
EN: The market would not be going sideways for 20 or 30 bars
ZH: 如果多头具有明显的优势， 市场就不会震荡20~30根K线这么久
09:59 - 10:02
EN: if the bulls were clearly in control.
ZH: 如果多头具有明显的优势， 市场就不会震荡20~30根K线这么久
10:02 - 10:06
EN: They were in control here, but big up, big down, big confusion
ZH: 之前多头控制了市场， 但是大涨、大跌、造成大的困惑之后，
10:06 - 10:13
EN: - usually sideways and then BreakOut Mode, 50/50 chance trend resumption up,
ZH: 通常会开始横盘震荡，进入突破模式， 上涨和下跌的概率是50对50
10:10 - 10:13
EN: 50/50 chance trend reversal down.
ZH: 通常会开始横盘震荡，进入突破模式， 上涨和下跌的概率是50对50
10:13 - 10:21
EN: My general rule: 20 or more bars in a Trading Range, the market is neutral.
ZH: 我的通用法则是：如果震荡区间持续了超过20根K线， 市场就是中性的，朝哪一边突破都有可能
10:19 - 10:21
EN: It can go either way.
ZH: 我的通用法则是：如果震荡区间持续了超过20根K线， 市场就是中性的，朝哪一边突破都有可能
10:23 - 10:26
EN: Reversal up, reversal up, reversal up.
ZH: 上涨，上涨，上涨
Slide 008
Time: 10:25
Bilingual Transcript
10:26 - 10:31
EN: Three pushes down, and therefore I start thinking about a Triangle.
ZH: 3次向下的推动，所以我开始考虑它是三角形
10:31 - 10:34
EN: If it’s mostly horizontal like this, I call it a Triangle.
ZH: 如果是这样，基本水平的3推，我就看作三角形
10:34 - 10:36
EN: If it’s tilted down, I call it a Wedge.
ZH: 如果向下倾斜，那就是楔形底
10:36 - 10:38
EN: If it’s tilted up, I call it a Wedge.
ZH: 如果向上倾斜，那就是楔形顶
10:38 - 10:42
EN: If it’s tilted down, I would be looking for a Wedge reversal.
ZH: 如果向下倾斜，我会寻找反转上涨的做多机会
10:42 - 10:46
EN: If it’s tilted up, I would look at it as a Wedge bear flag
ZH: 如果向上倾斜，我会把它看作楔形熊旗， 预期趋势恢复下跌
10:45 - 10:46
EN: and look for a bear breakout.
ZH: 如果向上倾斜，我会把它看作楔形熊旗， 预期趋势恢复下跌
10:50 - 10:55
EN: Any time you have a horizontal pattern lasting 20 or more bars, BreakOut Mode.
ZH: 当市场横盘超过20根K线，那就是突破模式
10:55 - 10:57
EN: Equal chance of a breakout up or down.
ZH: 向上向下突破的概率相等
11:00 - 11:01
EN: Here we have a bull breakout.
ZH: 这里最终向上突破，
11:01 - 11:05
EN: The bears tried to reverse; the reversal did not succeed.
ZH: 空头尝试反转，但没有成功 （注：向上突破，回调测试三角形的顶点）
11:05 - 11:09
EN: It became simply a pullback, and bulls bought above the high of this bar.
ZH: 这只是一次回调，多头会在这根K线的高点上方买入
11:09 - 11:16
EN: It’s a bull bar, a High 1 buy after the breakout,
ZH: 阳线收在最高，突破回调后的高1买入点， 左边是连续4根阳线
11:12 - 11:16
EN: a breakout pullback buy, and we have 4 consecutive bull bars.
ZH: 阳线收在最高，突破回调后的高1买入点， 左边是连续4根阳线
11:16 - 11:18
EN: The bears obviously exit as well.
ZH: 空头显然也在离场
11:19 - 11:23
EN: The biggest bear bar 20 or more bars into a bear trend
ZH: 下降趋势持续了超过20根K线之后，出现最大的阴线
11:23 - 11:25
EN: - probably an Exhaustion Bar.
ZH: ——很有可能是竭尽型缺口
11:25 - 11:29
EN: Probably we’ll close the gap, get back above this low, above that low.
ZH: 缺口大概率会被填补，反弹到这个或这个低点上方
11:29 - 11:30
EN: Here, we did.
ZH: 这里补掉了（缺口）
11:30 - 11:33
EN: Now we have big down, big up, big confusion.
ZH: 现在市场大跌、大涨，造成大的困惑
11:33 - 11:36
EN: You expect sideways and BreakOut Mode.
ZH: 预期进入震荡区间，变成突破模式
11:36 - 11:38
EN: We ended up getting the bull breakout.
ZH: 最终是多头向上突破
11:38 - 11:44
EN: The bulls buy the breakout, they buy above the pullback, and the bears buy.
ZH: 多头在突破时买入，回调时买入； 空头也在买入（回补），他们放弃了
11:43 - 11:44
EN: They give up.
ZH: 空头也在买入（回补），他们放弃了
11:44 - 11:46
EN: And you get a Give-up Bar right here.
ZH: 这是空头的放弃K线
Slide 009
Time: 11:50
Bilingual Transcript
11:52 - 11:55
EN: Triangles can be big, sometimes lasting 30, 40, 50 bars,
ZH: 三角形可以很大，有时持续30、40、50根K线
11:56 - 11:58
EN: but they can also be very small.
ZH: 但它们也可以非常小
11:58 - 12:01
EN: Any time I see consecutive inside bars, two or more inside bars,
ZH: 每当我看到连续的孕线，连续两根以上孕线
12:01 - 12:04
EN: I know it’s a Triangle on a smaller timeframe chart.
ZH: 我就知道在较小的时间周期上，有一个三角形
12:05 - 12:08
EN: Therefore, it’s a Triangle on this chart as well.
ZH: 在这个K线图上，它也是三角形
12:08 - 12:11
EN: You can see this bear bar is inside that bar.
ZH: 可以看到，这根阴线在前一根K线内部
12:11 - 12:14
EN: The low is at or above the low of the prior bar.
ZH: 低点略微更高一些
12:14 - 12:18
EN: The high is at or below the high of the prior bar.
ZH: 而高点比它更低
12:18 - 12:22
EN: And this bear bar is inside that bar, so now we have iii.
ZH: 而这根阴线又在前一根K线的内部， 所以这是iii（连续3根孕线）
12:22 - 12:30
EN: This bar is an inside bar, this bull bar, and it’s followed by
ZH: 这根阳线是第1根孕线，这根阴线也是孕线， 这根阴线是第3根孕线
12:26 - 12:30
EN: a bear inside bar, and that’s followed by a third inside bar.
ZH: 这根阳线是第1根孕线，这根阴线也是孕线， 这根阴线是第3根孕线
12:30 - 12:33
EN: That is a Triangle on a smaller timeframe chart.
ZH: 在较小时间周期的K线图上，这是一个三角形
12:34 - 12:37
EN: Every ii or iii is a Triangle.
ZH: ii和iii，都是收敛三角形
12:37 - 12:40
EN: It’s a small Triangle, but it’s a Triangle,
ZH: 尽管很小，但它确实是三角形
12:40 - 12:43
EN: and it’s clearly a Triangle on a smaller timeframe chart.
ZH: 在较小时间周期的图上，是明显的三角形
12:44 - 12:49
EN: You can see the videos on Candle Setups and Signal Bars
ZH: 关于iii的结构，在08A~D的4节课已经详细讲解过
12:47 - 12:49
EN: for more about iii patterns.
ZH: 关于iii的结构，在08A~D的4节课已经详细讲解过
12:53 - 12:57
EN: I’m going to now talk about a special type of Triangle.
ZH: 接下来我要讲一种特殊的三角形
Slide 010
Time: 12:55
Bilingual Transcript
12:57 - 12:58
EN: I call it a Wedge.
ZH: 也就是楔形
12:58 - 13:02
EN: A Wedge, like all Triangles, is a Trading Range.
ZH: 楔形，和所有三角形一样，是一个震荡区间
13:02 - 13:04
EN: It has converging lines.
ZH: 它的通道线是收敛的
13:05 - 13:08
EN: If the pattern is mostly horizontal, I use the term “Triangle.”
ZH: 如果这个结构主要是水平的，我称之为三角形
13:08 - 13:13
EN: If it’s angled upward or downward, I use the term “Wedge.”
ZH: 如果它向上或向下倾斜，我称之为楔形
13:13 - 13:15
EN: Sometimes you’re not sure.
ZH: 如果有些时候不是特别清楚
13:15 - 13:19
EN: It doesn’t matter what you call it.
ZH: 怎么叫它都可以，三角形，或者楔形
13:17 - 13:19
EN: You can call it a Triangle or a Wedge.
ZH: 怎么叫它都可以，三角形，或者楔形
13:19 - 13:22
EN: In general, if I’m not sure, I call it a Triangle.
ZH: 通常不确定的时候，我就把它看作三角形
Slide 011
Time: 13:22
Bilingual Transcript
13:26 - 13:29
EN: Reversal up, reversal up, a third reversal up.
ZH: 低点，低点，第3个低点
13:30 - 13:33
EN: To me that is a Wedge Bottom in a bear trend.
ZH: 我把它看作下降趋势中的楔形底
13:34 - 13:37
EN: 60% chance or more, probably 70% chance,
ZH: 60%，70%甚至更高的概率
13:37 - 13:40
EN: you’re going to get at least a minor bull breakout.
ZH: 至少会有小的多头突破
13:41 - 13:49
EN: Unlike a Triangle, a horizontal pattern, you have a 50/50 chance
ZH: 不像三角形——50%的概率向下突破， 50%的概率向上突破，
13:45 - 13:49
EN: of a downside breakout, 50/50 chance of an upside breakout.
ZH: 不像三角形——50%的概率向下突破， 50%的概率向上突破，
13:50 - 13:54
EN: When the Triangle is angled and I start calling it a Wedge,
ZH: 如果三角形是倾斜的，我称之为楔形
13:55 - 13:59
EN: there’s a 75% chance that the breakout will be in the opposite direction.
ZH: 有75%的概率会反向突破
13:59 - 14:01
EN: If I see a Wedge that’s going down,
ZH: 如果我看到一个向下的楔形
14:01 - 14:06
EN: 75% chance I’ll get a bull breakout, a reversal.
ZH: 75%的概率会向上突破，尝试反转
14:10 - 14:13
EN: The more it looks like a Wedge, the more it behaves like a Wedge.
ZH: 楔形的形状越标准，反转的可能性就越高
14:13 - 14:15
EN: Here we have a Wedge bear channel.
ZH: 这是一个楔形下降通道
14:15 - 14:18
EN: 75% chance there’ll be a bull breakout.
ZH: 75%的概率会向上突破
14:18 - 14:21
EN: Therefore, bear channel, bull flag.
ZH: 所以，下降通道，可以看作牛旗
14:20 - 14:21
EN: It behaves like a bull flag.
ZH: 所以，下降通道，可以看作牛旗
14:21 - 14:24
EN: Odds are you’ll get a bull breakout.
ZH: 大概率会向上突破
14:24 - 14:27
EN: There’s often a bear breakout first.
ZH: 经常会先尝试加速下跌
14:27 - 14:30
EN: At least 50% of the time when you have some kind of a Wedge,
ZH: 至少50%的时候，如果是某种楔形的通道
14:30 - 14:34
EN: you’ll get an attempt by the trend to continue.
ZH: 趋势会尝试加速突破
14:35 - 14:37
EN: We have a reversal up, reversal up.
ZH: 反弹，反弹，
14:37 - 14:38
EN: I draw a line.
ZH: 画一条线
14:38 - 14:41
EN: Here we’re trying to get a bear breakout below a bear channel.
ZH: 市场尝试加速跌破下降通道
14:41 - 14:45
EN: 75% chance the bear breakout will fail, and we’ll get to the top of the channel.
ZH: 75%的概率，空头突破会（在5根K线内）失败， 至少反弹到通道的上沿
14:46 - 14:49
EN: Once it reverses up, I now have three pushes – one, two, three.
ZH: 一旦开始反弹上涨，就有了3推——1，2，3
14:49 - 14:52
EN: I know it doesn’t have a good Wedge shape.
ZH: 尽管这个楔形的形状不算很标准
14:52 - 14:55
EN: If I were to draw a line connecting Point 1 and Point 3,
ZH: 如果我把1和3连起来，
14:55 - 14:58
EN: it would not have a very good shape at all.
ZH: 看上去不是一个标准的楔形
14:58 - 15:01
EN: However, it’s still a bear channel.
ZH: 但是，它仍然是下降通道
15:01 - 15:03
EN: 75% chance a bull breakout.
ZH: 75%的概率会向上突破
15:03 - 15:04
EN: Three pushes down.
ZH: 3次向下推动
15:04 - 15:07
EN: I would call that a Wedge, especially late in a trend.
ZH: 尤其是在趋势后期，我把它当作是楔形
15:07 - 15:10
EN: So, I think the odds are we’ll get a bull breakout
ZH: 所以我认为大概率会向上突破，
15:10 - 15:13
EN: and then either a Trading Range or a bull trend.
ZH: 然后至少进入震荡区间，甚至上涨趋势
Slide 012
Time: 15:15
Bilingual Transcript
15:20 - 15:26
EN: Again, it doesn’t really matter if you cannot tell
ZH: 再次强调，如果你不知道它到底是三角形还是楔形， 没有关系
15:22 - 15:26
EN: if the pattern is a Wedge or a Triangle.
ZH: 再次强调，如果你不知道它到底是三角形还是楔形， 没有关系
15:26 - 15:29
EN: Both are Trading Ranges, and both are in BreakOut Mode.
ZH: 它们都是震荡区间，都处于突破模式
15:29 - 15:35
EN: The more horizontal it is, the more the probability is 50/50 chance breakout
ZH: 水平的三角形，向上向下突破的概率接近50对50
15:34 - 15:41
EN: to the up side or down side, and the more it’s angled,
ZH: 水平的三角形，向上向下突破的概率接近50对50 倾斜的三角形（楔形），更有可能往反方向突破
15:37 - 15:41
EN: the more chance you’ll get a breakout in the opposite direction.
ZH: 倾斜的三角形（楔形），更有可能往反方向突破
15:41 - 15:44
EN: If it’s a falling Wedge, you’ll get a bull breakout.
ZH: 下降的楔形更有可能会向上突破
15:44 - 15:46
EN: If it’s a rising Wedge, you’ll get a bear breakout.
ZH: 上涨的楔形更有可能会向下突破
15:51 - 15:53
EN: Reversal down, reversal down, reversal down.
ZH: 下跌，下跌，下跌
15:53 - 15:56
EN: Three pushes, and therefore it’s a Triangle.
ZH: 3次推动，所以它是三角形
15:56 - 15:59
EN: It’s sloped up somewhat, so I would call it a Wedge.
ZH: 它有一点点向上倾斜，所以我会说它是楔形
15:59 - 16:01
EN: It’s in a bear trend, so it’s a Wedge bear flag.
ZH: 左边是下降趋势，所以它是楔形熊旗
16:01 - 16:05
EN: We got a bear breakout, but it failed, and we reversed up.
ZH: 尝试继续下跌，失败了，反转上涨
16:05 - 16:06
EN: Second entry.
ZH: 第2做多入场点
16:06 - 16:09
EN: Above this bar is the first one, and above this bar is the second.
ZH: 第2做多入场点 这根K线上方是第1（做多）入场点， 它的上方是第2入场点
16:09 - 16:13
EN: Still not high probability, but pretty good bull breakout.
ZH: 胜率仍然不是很高（背景好，信号K不好）， 但多头突破非常强势
16:13 - 16:15
EN: This makes me think we’re going to go higher.
ZH: 这让我认为市场会继续上涨
16:15 - 16:20
EN: We had a bear breakout attempt, and now we’ve got a pretty good reversal up,
ZH: 空头突破失败，多头强势地反转上涨
16:20 - 16:25
EN: and then we have another ii, a small Triangle
ZH: 回调之后出现了ii（连续孕线）， 是小时间周期上的三角形
16:22 - 16:25
EN: (a Triangle on a smaller timeframe chart).
ZH: 回调之后出现了ii（连续孕线）， 是小时间周期上的三角形
16:25 - 16:28
EN: The bulls see this as a pullback from this breakout.
ZH: 多头把它看作是突破后的回调
16:28 - 16:31
EN: They’ll buy on a stop above this bar, looking for a second leg up.
ZH: 他们会在这根K线的上方买入，押注第2段上涨
Slide 013
Time: 16:35
Bilingual Transcript
16:37 - 16:39
EN: A Triangle or a Wedge.
ZH: 三角形，或楔形
16:39 - 16:43
EN: Both can be reversal patterns or continuation patterns.
ZH: 两者都可以是延续结构，也可以是反转结构
Slide 014
Time: 16:45
Bilingual Transcript
16:49 - 16:51
EN: We have a bull trend and then a Triangle.
ZH: 上涨趋势，三角形
16:51 - 16:55
EN: We tried to resume the bull trend here, but it failed.
ZH: 尝试恢复上涨趋势，但是失败了
16:55 - 17:00
EN: We have Lower Highs, so it’s possibly an early bear trend.
ZH: 高点在降低，所以有可能是下降趋势的早期
17:00 - 17:04
EN: In fact, this Triangle became a reversal pattern.
ZH: 事实上，这个三角形成为了反转结构
17:05 - 17:08
EN: Where did the bear trend begin? It began up here.
ZH: 下降趋势是从哪里开始的？从这里开始
17:08 - 17:11
EN: Even though we’re still in a bull trend at this point,
ZH: 尽管此时市场仍然处于上涨趋势
17:11 - 17:14
EN: it turns out it was also in a bear trend as well.
ZH: 但它也是整个下降趋势的起跌点
17:14 - 17:16
EN: We’re starting to get Lower Highs.
ZH: 高点开始不断降低
17:16 - 17:19
EN: Even though not Lower Lows yet, we’re getting Lower Highs,
ZH: 尽管低点还没有降低（三角形下沿基本是水平的）， 但是高点一个比一个低
17:19 - 17:20
EN: so it’s an early bear trend.
ZH: 有下降趋势早期的特征
17:20 - 17:23
EN: It’s a Double Bottom bull flag in a bull trend,
ZH: （然而在多头的视角中）它是上涨趋势中的双底牛旗
17:23 - 17:27
EN: so it’s also a bull trend, and clearly a Trading Range.
ZH: 所以仍然处于上涨趋势，但是显然已经进入震荡区间
17:27 - 17:32
EN: Whenever the market’s in a Trading Range,
ZH: 只要市场处于震荡区间， 就会同时存在做多和做空的理由，而且都很合理
17:28 - 17:32
EN: there’s always a good reason to sell and a good reason to buy.
ZH: 只要市场处于震荡区间， 就会同时存在做多和做空的理由，而且都很合理
17:32 - 17:36
EN: 50/50 chance the bears will win, as they did here.
ZH: 50%的概率空头会获胜，就像之后发生的那样
17:36 - 17:41
EN: 50/50 chance the bulls will win, we’ll get a Double Bottom
ZH: 50%的概率多头会获胜，形成双底牛旗， 然后上涨趋势继续
17:39 - 17:41
EN: and trend resumption up.
ZH: 50%的概率多头会获胜，形成双底牛旗， 然后上涨趋势继续
17:43 - 17:45
EN: You can call this a Triangle.
ZH: 你可以说它是三角形
17:45 - 17:47
EN: You can call it a Wedge bear flag.
ZH: 也可以说它是双底牛旗
17:47 - 17:50
EN: It’s mostly horizontal; I would call it a Triangle.
ZH: 它基本上是水平的，所以我会说它是三角形
17:57 - 18:00
EN: Point 4 is slightly below Point 2.
ZH: 4略微低于2
18:01 - 18:04
EN: If you want to call it a Wedge, Wedge bull flag, you can.
ZH: 也许你也可以说它是楔形牛旗
18:04 - 18:06
EN: You can call it three pushes down.
ZH: 你可以说有3次向下的推动
18:06 - 18:09
EN: One push here, two here, three there.
ZH: （下方蓝色的）1，2，3
18:09 - 18:10
EN: Or you can simply call it a Triangle.
ZH: 或者直接把它看成三角形
18:10 - 18:12
EN: Again, it doesn’t matter.
ZH: 这些都不是关键
18:12 - 18:15
EN: The more horizontal it is, the more neutral it is.
ZH: 三角形越水平，市场越中性
18:15 - 18:18
EN: In any case, we got a successful bear breakout.
ZH: 总之，最后空头成功地向下突破了
18:22 - 18:23
EN: Third push down.
ZH: 第3次向下推动
18:23 - 18:25
EN: We have a Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 高点降低的大反转
18:25 - 18:29
EN: You can call it a Double Top bear flag, you can call it a Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 你可以说它是双顶熊旗，可以说它是宽下降通道
18:29 - 18:33
EN: Traders will sell a reversal down, especially after three pushes up.
ZH: 第3次反弹结束之后，空头会卖出做空
18:33 - 18:38
EN: Bull, bear, bull, bear, and then bull, bear, so three pushes up.
ZH: 阳线，阳线，阳线，所以是3次向上推动 （注：小的楔形熊旗）
18:38 - 18:42
EN: This is a Wedge Lower High and a decent sell signal bar here.
ZH: 楔形，更低的高点，不错的做空信号K
18:42 - 18:44
EN: They’ll sell below it, and they get filled right here.
ZH: 空头会在它的下方开仓做空， 卖单会在这里成交
18:44 - 18:46
EN: It’s still a low probability short
ZH: 做空的胜率并不高
18:46 - 18:49
EN: because you’re shorting in the middle of a Triangle.
ZH: 因为你在三角形的当中卖出
18:49 - 18:51
EN: However, it’s a reasonable short.
ZH: 然而这是一笔合理的交易
18:51 - 18:56
EN: The risk is small, maybe to above the high of this bar or the high of that bar.
ZH: 风险很小，止损在这根K线，或那根K线的高点上方
18:57 - 18:59
EN: The potential reward is very big.
ZH: 在的回报非常大
19:04 - 19:07
EN: A weak bear breakout, but look at it.
ZH: 突破好像很弱，但仔细看一看
19:07 - 19:11
EN: We have 8 consecutive bear bars without a bull body.
ZH: 连续8根阴线，没有一根阳线
19:11 - 19:13
EN: To me, this is Always In Short.
ZH: 在我看来，市场已经处于单边下跌
19:13 - 19:15
EN: It’s a very Tight Channel.
ZH: 这是一个非常窄的通道
19:15 - 19:18
EN: It’s not quite a Micro Channel – this high went above that high
ZH: 不完全是一个微通道——这个高点超过了那个高点
19:18 - 19:22
EN: - but it’s very close to being a Micro Channel, and there are no bull bars.
ZH: 但它非常接近于一个微通道，并且一根阳线都没有
19:22 - 19:25
EN: This is a breakout on a higher timeframe chart,
ZH: 在更高的时间周期上，它就是一次突破
19:25 - 19:29
EN: and I think after 3 or 4 of these bars, traders would conclude
ZH: 我认为在3~4根这样的K线之后，交易者会得出结论：
19:29 - 19:32
EN: the market is Always In Short and an early bear trend.
ZH: 市场处于单边下跌，并且是下降趋势的早期
19:34 - 19:37
EN: Higher probability selling here than there.
ZH: 在这里做空的胜率比刚才要更高一些
19:37 - 19:42
EN: At this point we have 3 or 4 consecutive bear bars, 8 bars without a bull body.
ZH: 此时已经有连续3根阴线，过去8根K线中没有阳线
19:43 - 19:45
EN: This is now probably a bear trend.
ZH: 大概率已经进入下降趋势
19:45 - 19:50
EN: Probably means it’s more likely going down than up, so it’s Always In Short.
ZH: 大概率的意思是，更有可能下跌，而不是上涨， 所以只能做空
19:50 - 19:57
EN: This is a higher probability short than shorting the reversal up here,
ZH: 之前（在三角形的当中）市场是中性的， 在这里入场做空胜率更高
19:55 - 19:57
EN: when the market is still neutral.
ZH: 之前（在三角形的当中）市场是中性的， 在这里入场做空胜率更高
20:00 - 20:05
EN: Highest probability – two pushes up, one, pullback, two,
ZH: 胜率更高的入场点——两次反弹，1，回调，2
20:05 - 20:07
EN: below a bear bar, and then a bear breakout.
ZH: 在这根阴线下方做空，或者空头突破做空
20:07 - 20:11
EN: Big bar, big follow-through bar, both closing on their lows.
ZH: 大阴线，跟随K线也是，而且都收在最低
20:11 - 20:14
EN: This is where the final bulls are giving up.
ZH: 最后的多头在这里放弃了
20:15 - 20:20
EN: So this is a very high probability short for at least a little bit more down.
ZH: 所以这是非常高胜率的做空卖点，至少会再下跌一些
20:24 - 20:29
EN: I said a Triangle has at least three pushes, three reversals.
ZH: 三角形至少有3次推动，3次反转
Slide 015
Time: 20:25
Bilingual Transcript
20:30 - 20:34
EN: Here we reversed up, reversed up, reversed up, reversed up, reversed up.
ZH: 这里上涨，上涨，上涨，上涨，上涨，
20:35 - 20:37
EN: This is a horizontal pattern.
ZH: 这是一个水平的结构
20:38 - 20:43
EN: The line on top is trending down; the line on the bottom is trending up.
ZH: 上沿的线在下降；下沿的线在上升
20:43 - 20:44
EN: So it’s converging.
ZH: 所以它是收敛的
20:44 - 20:50
EN: It’s a Triangle, and it’s a Triangle with nine points in it, nine reversals.
ZH: 这个三角形一共有9个高低点，来回反转了9次
20:51 - 20:57
EN: Nothing has changed.
ZH: 然而并没有什么变化， 向上向下突破的概率，依旧是50对50
20:52 - 20:57
EN: Still 50/50 chance you’ll get a bull breakout,
ZH: 然而并没有什么变化， 向上向下突破的概率，依旧是50对50
20:55 - 20:57
EN: 50/50 chance you’ll get a bear breakout.
ZH: 然而并没有什么变化， 向上向下突破的概率，依旧是50对50
20:59 - 21:03
EN: Any time you’re in a Trading Range that lasts 20 or more bars,
ZH: 只要震荡区间持续了20根或更多K线，
21:03 - 21:05
EN: the market is in BreakOut Mode.
ZH: 市场就处于突破模式
21:09 - 21:12
EN: Whenever the market is in a Trading Range, in particular a Triangle,
ZH: 当市场处于震荡区间，尤其是三角形时，
21:12 - 21:16
EN: the legs usually subdivide into two smaller legs – one, pullback, two.
ZH: 通常都是两段式的移动 （注：所以震荡区间到处都是第2段陷阱）
21:16 - 21:17
EN: One, pullback, two.
ZH: 1，回调，2
21:17 - 21:18
EN: One, pullback, two.
ZH: 1，反弹，2
21:18 - 21:20
EN: One, pullback, two.
ZH: 1，回调，2
21:21 - 21:23
EN: And then here, it’s difficult to see.
ZH: 再后面就很难看清了
21:23 - 21:27
EN: However, two-legged moves are common within Triangles,
ZH: 总之，两段式移动在三角形中很常见，
21:27 - 21:30
EN: as they are within all Trading Ranges.
ZH: 在所有震荡区间中都很常见
21:30 - 21:32
EN: Sometimes you get three-legged moves as well.
ZH: 有时候也会有三段式的移动
21:32 - 21:35
EN: You could call this a Wedge rally – first push and then a pullback,
ZH: 你可以把它看作楔形上涨——第1次推，回调；
21:35 - 21:39
EN: second push, reversal, and then a third push.
ZH: 第2推，回调；然后第3推
21:40 - 21:42
EN: Again, two legs up.
ZH: 再讲一遍，两段式移动
21:42 - 21:43
EN: One, pullback, two.
ZH: 1，回调，2
21:43 - 21:45
EN: One, pullback, two.
ZH: 1，反弹，2 1，回调，2
21:44 - 21:45
EN: One, pullback, two.
ZH: 1，回调，2
21:45 - 21:49
EN: One, and then this bull bar is a pullback, and then two.
ZH: 1，这根阳线反弹，然后2
21:53 - 21:56
EN: As soon as I see three reversals up or down, it’s a Triangle.
ZH: 如果有3次向上或向下的反转，那就是三角形
21:56 - 21:59
EN: So at this point I would call the Trading Range a Triangle.
ZH: 所以此时我会把这个震荡区间看作是三角形
21:59 - 22:02
EN: We’ve had three reversals up, one, two, three.
ZH: 有3次向上的反转（尝试）——1，2，3
22:02 - 22:06
EN: That means there were three legs down – one, two, and three.
ZH: 这意味着左边有3次下跌——1，2，3
22:07 - 22:13
EN: But sometimes, as I said, Triangles continue on
ZH: 但偶尔，就像之前提到过， 三角形可以继续，内部有7段，甚至9段移动
22:10 - 22:13
EN: and have seven legs or even nine legs.
ZH: 但偶尔，就像之前提到过， 三角形可以继续，内部有7段，甚至9段移动
Slide 016
Time: 22:20
Bilingual Transcript
22:25 - 22:27
EN: Strong bear bars here.
ZH: 两根强势的阴线
22:27 - 22:32
EN: Even stronger bear breakout here, and then again here, again here, again here.
ZH: 这根大阴线更加强势，然后这里，这里也是
22:32 - 22:35
EN: The bears keep trying to resume the bear trend.
ZH: 空头不断尝试让下降趋势继续
22:35 - 22:39
EN: They keep trying to get a bear breakout and another leg down in this bear trend,
ZH: 他们不断尝试再次向下突破，制造新的下跌波段
22:39 - 22:44
EN: but they keep failing – and each breakout attempt is weaker.
ZH: 但他们一直在失败——每次突破的尝试都变得更弱
22:44 - 22:48
EN: This bear breakout is weaker than that, and this one is weaker than that.
ZH: 这次空头突破比上次弱，这次变得更弱
22:49 - 22:55
EN: What’s happening is the market is discovering
ZH: 市场发现，在这个价格，已经没有太多人愿意卖出
22:52 - 22:55
EN: that there are not enough traders willing to sell at this price.
ZH: 市场发现，在这个价格，已经没有太多人愿意卖出
22:56 - 23:00
EN: Therefore, the market probably has to go higher
ZH: 所以市场必须上涨，才能找到更多买家
22:58 - 23:00
EN: to find a price where traders will sell.
ZH: 所以市场必须上涨，才能找到更多买家
23:00 - 23:02
EN: At some point the bears give up.
ZH: 到了某一时刻，空头会放弃
23:02 - 23:06
EN: You can see each one of their attempts becomes weaker and weaker and weaker.
ZH: 你可以看到，他们的每次尝试都变得越来越弱
23:06 - 23:11
EN: Fewer and fewer bears are willing to sell, and bulls are becoming stronger.
ZH: 愿意卖出的人越来越少，而多头变得更强
23:12 - 23:15
EN: Although you cannot tell the bulls are becoming stronger yet,
ZH: 尽管你还无法直接看到多头变强 （注：此时还没有大阳线等买压的信号）
23:15 - 23:16
EN: they’re stopping the bears.
ZH: 但他们阻止了空头的抛售
23:16 - 23:21
EN: The reason why the bear legs are getting weaker is a combination of two things:
ZH: 阴线越来越小，是由两个因素造成的：
23:21 - 23:23
EN: the bears are not selling as aggressively,
ZH: 一，空头不再那么激进地抛售
23:23 - 23:25
EN: and the bulls are buying more aggressively.
ZH: 二，多头开始更加积极地买入
23:28 - 23:34
EN: Traders will start buying reversals up above this bull bar,
ZH: 交易者会开始在这个阳线的上方， 在这个十字星，或者这个阳线的上方买入做多
23:31 - 23:34
EN: above this doji, maybe above this bull bar,
ZH: 交易者会开始在这个阳线的上方， 在这个十字星，或者这个阳线的上方买入做多
23:34 - 23:37
EN: and then above this bull bar or above this pullback bar,
ZH: 然后在这根阳线，或者这根回调K线的上方买入
23:37 - 23:40
EN: betting that we’ll try to probe up, maybe to the top of the range.
ZH: 押注市场向上探测，至少达到震荡区间的上沿
23:41 - 23:43
EN: Maybe we’ll have a bull swing.
ZH: 甚至制造上涨波段
23:46 - 23:47
EN: Bull breakout.
ZH: 多头突破
23:47 - 23:52
EN: 4 good bull bars, 5 bars up, and then we have a Double Bottom bull flag.
ZH: 连续上涨5根K线，其中3根阳线很不错， 然后回调形成双底牛旗
23:52 - 23:53
EN: Push down, push down.
ZH: 回调，回调
23:53 - 23:56
EN: Traders will buy above the high of that bear bar
ZH: 多头会在那个阴线的高点上方买入，
23:56 - 23:59
EN: or above the high of this bull bar, and you can see we have another breakout.
ZH: 或在这个阳线的高点上方买入， 所以再次向上突破
24:00 - 24:05
EN: It’s a breakout of a Triangle, and this is a pause
ZH: 突破三角形，然后暂停、或者说小幅回调
24:03 - 24:05
EN: or a pullback from that breakout.
ZH: 突破三角形，然后暂停、或者说小幅回调
24:05 - 24:11
EN: Then the bulls got a second leg up and went up for several more legs as well.
ZH: 然后多头制造了第2段上涨，并且又上涨了几段
Slide 017
Time: 24:15
Bilingual Transcript
24:18 - 24:23
EN: Any time the market is going sideways, there are many different ways
ZH: 每当市场横盘震荡的时候， 总是有很多不同的方式来描述市场的行为
24:21 - 24:27
EN: to label what’s going on, but it doesn’t matter how you label it
ZH: 每当市场横盘震荡的时候， 总是有很多不同的方式来描述市场的行为 但不管你用什么词语描述，交易的方式是相同的
24:26 - 24:27
EN: - everyone’s going to trade it the same.
ZH: 但不管你用什么词语描述，交易的方式是相同的
24:27 - 24:30
EN: Everyone understands the process.
ZH: 因为交易者理解这个过程的本质
24:30 - 24:35
EN: Everyone understands the bears repeatedly are trying
ZH: 每个人都明白空头在反复尝试向下突破，但是失败
24:33 - 24:35
EN: to get the down side breakout and failing,
ZH: 每个人都明白空头在反复尝试向下突破，但是失败
24:35 - 24:41
EN: and therefore the market probably has to go higher
ZH: 因此市场需要上涨，才能找到更多愿意卖出的人
24:38 - 24:41
EN: to find a price where traders will be willing to sell.
ZH: 因此市场需要上涨，才能找到更多愿意卖出的人
24:43 - 24:47
EN: Strong bear breakout, strong reversal up.
ZH: 强势的下跌，强势的反转 市场可能是中性的
24:45 - 24:47
EN: The market is probably neutral.
ZH: 市场可能是中性的
24:47 - 24:51
EN: Big down, big up, big confusion, so probably sideways.
ZH: 大跌、大涨、造成大的困惑，所以大概率会横盘
24:51 - 24:53
EN: This is a decent looking bull leg.
ZH: 这段上涨很漂亮
24:58 - 25:01
EN: First leg up, we got a sideways pullback.
ZH: 反弹之后，开始横盘、回调
25:06 - 25:08
EN: If you want, you can call it a Triangle,
ZH: 你可以把它看作是三角形
25:08 - 25:11
EN: or you can call it a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal here,
ZH: 或者低点抬高的大反转
25:11 - 25:15
EN: or a Double Bottom Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 或者低点抬高，然后双底大反转
25:15 - 25:19
EN: Some bulls will buy above here for a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 一些多头会在这里买入，押注低点抬高的大反转
25:19 - 25:21
EN: Bear trend, strong bull breakout.
ZH: 下降趋势，强势的多头突破
25:21 - 25:23
EN: Two legs down to a Higher Low.
ZH: 两段回调，低点抬高
25:23 - 25:27
EN: Micro Double Bottom – down, up, down, and then up.
ZH: 小双底——下跌，上涨，上涨，然后上涨
25:27 - 25:30
EN: A reasonable Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 合理的低点抬高的大反转机会
25:30 - 25:34
EN: Other bulls will buy this as a Double Bottom Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 一些多头会在这里买入，也是低点抬高的大反转
25:34 - 25:40
EN: Other bulls will buy this as a pullback from the breakout
ZH: 一些多头会在这里买入，看作是双底突破之后的回调
25:37 - 25:40
EN: above the Double Bottom Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 一些多头会在这里买入，看作是双底突破之后的回调
25:40 - 25:41
EN: Double Bottom Higher Low.
ZH: 双底，低点抬高
25:41 - 25:46
EN: Not a very strong breakout, but two legs down to a slightly Higher Low.
ZH: 并不是很强的突破，但是两段回调，低点继续抬高
25:46 - 25:47
EN: Another reversal up.
ZH: 再次上涨（的时候买入）
25:50 - 25:54
EN: You can also say that we have a bear reversal and then another Triangle,
ZH: 也可以看作是空头突破，然后三角形震荡
25:54 - 25:56
EN: and we got a bull breakout of that Triangle.
ZH: 最终向上突破了三角形
26:01 - 26:04
EN: First leg up in a bull trend here and then a Triangle,
ZH: 第1段上涨，然后三角形震荡
26:04 - 26:08
EN: and then you can say this is a second leg up, a pullback, and a third leg up.
ZH: 然后你可以说这是第2段上涨，回调，第3段上涨
26:08 - 26:11
EN: Or you could call this entire thing a second leg up.
ZH: 或者你可以把这一整个看作是大的第2段上涨
26:11 - 26:15
EN: No clear sign of a top yet, but possibly a 2nd Leg Trap
ZH: 没有明显的顶部反转信号，但有可能是第2段陷阱
26:15 - 26:17
EN: and that we’re at the top of a Trading Range.
ZH: 因为也许这是大震荡区间的上沿
26:17 - 26:18
EN: This is climactic.
ZH: 这是抢购高潮
26:18 - 26:21
EN: It could be a Measuring Gap leading to a big trend up;
ZH: 当然，有可能是测量型缺口，开启更大的上涨趋势
26:21 - 26:24
EN: it could be a climactic end of this bull trend.
ZH: 但也有可能是趋势衰竭前最后的高潮
26:24 - 26:25
EN: Don’t know yet.
ZH: 目前还没有信号
26:25 - 26:30
EN: But in any case, the bulls got a good reversal up after a Triangle.
ZH: 但无论如何，多头在三角形之后成功地反转上涨了
Slide 018
Time: 26:35
Bilingual Transcript
26:36 - 26:37
EN: We have a bull trend.
ZH: 上涨趋势
26:37 - 26:41
EN: We have a reversal down, reversal down, third reversal down.
ZH: 回调，回调，第3次回调
26:41 - 26:44
EN: We have a Trading Range with three reversals.
ZH: 3次回调形成了震荡区间
26:44 - 26:45
EN: You can call it a Triangle.
ZH: 你可以说它是三角形
26:45 - 26:47
EN: We have converging lines.
ZH: 通道线收敛
26:47 - 26:50
EN: We tried to get a bear breakout and we reversed up.
ZH: 空头尝试反转，但是继续上涨
26:51 - 26:54
EN: We have a bull trend and a pullback, a High 1 buy,
ZH: 上涨趋势，回调，这里是高1买入点
26:54 - 26:57
EN: but it’s big up, big down, confusion.
ZH: 但是大涨、大跌、大的困惑
26:57 - 26:58
EN: Probably more sideways.
ZH: 大概率要横盘震荡一段上涨
26:58 - 27:00
EN: We’re trying to reverse up again.
ZH: 再次尝试恢复上涨
27:00 - 27:05
EN: Now a Double Bottom bull flag or a High 2 – High 1, High 2.
ZH: 现在是双底牛旗，或者说高2牛旗——高1，高2
27:05 - 27:08
EN: Yet the reversal up could not go very far,
ZH: 然而没有能走多远
27:08 - 27:10
EN: and now we’re getting a third reversal up.
ZH: 现在第3次尝试继续上涨
27:10 - 27:12
EN: I still call it a pullback.
ZH: 我仍然把它看作是回调
27:12 - 27:19
EN: There are fewer than 20 bars, and therefore the odds are the trend
ZH: 少于20根K线，因此多头仍然拥有对趋势的控制
27:17 - 27:19
EN: before it is still in control.
ZH: 少于20根K线，因此多头仍然拥有对趋势的控制
27:19 - 27:22
EN: This is still a bull flag in a bull trend.
ZH: 这仍然是上涨趋势中的一个牛旗
27:22 - 27:26
EN: Once you start to get 20 or 30 bars, I start using the term “Trading Range.”
ZH: 然而，一旦回调持续20或30根K线， 我就开始说它是震荡区间
27:26 - 27:29
EN: This is a small Triangle, less than 20 bars.
ZH: 这是一个小三角形，少于20根K线
27:29 - 27:34
EN: The odds are the bull trend will resume, that we’ll get a bull breakout.
ZH: 上涨趋势大概率会恢复，仍然会向上突破
27:35 - 27:37
EN: Therefore, it’s not BreakOut Mode.
ZH: 所以这不是突破模式 （注：突破模式指双方的概率差不多）
27:37 - 27:38
EN: It’s a bull flag.
ZH: 这是一个牛旗 （注：牛旗，则多头突破概率更大）
27:41 - 27:46
EN: Traders will buy the breakout of the Triangle, and then here they’ll buy closes.
ZH: 交易者会在向上突破时买入， 然后会在这根阳线的收盘买入
27:46 - 27:48
EN: It’s a Buy The Close rally right here.
ZH: 这已经是一个“买收盘”的上涨趋势了
27:48 - 27:52
EN: Bulls disappointed by this, they use this bar
ZH: 多头对这根阴线感到失望， 买在最后一根阳线收盘的多头，
27:51 - 27:54
EN: to get out breakeven if they bought that high close.
ZH: 多头对这根阴线感到失望， 买在最后一根阳线收盘的多头， 会利用这根K线打平离场
27:59 - 28:01
EN: Big up, big down, big confusion.
ZH: 大涨、大跌、造成大的困惑
28:01 - 28:04
EN: Probably sideways, and it’s a Triangle.
ZH: 很可能要震荡——变成了三角形
28:04 - 28:08
EN: Three reversals down – one, two, and three.
ZH: 3次反转下跌——1，2，3
28:09 - 28:11
EN: And here, we got a bear breakout.
ZH: 然后空头突破
28:13 - 28:17
EN: Whenever a Triangle forms 20 or more bars into a bull trend,
ZH: 如果上涨趋势后期，出现了持续超过20根K线的三角形
28:17 - 28:20
EN: chances are it’s the final bull flag.
ZH: 那么它很有可能是末端牛旗
28:20 - 28:26
EN: You might get a strong breakout, but the market is probably going to come back
ZH: 就算强势上涨突破，但市场大概率会在不久之后 回测三角形的顶点
28:24 - 28:26
EN: to the apex of the Triangle before too long.
ZH: 就算强势上涨突破，但市场大概率会在不久之后 回测三角形的顶点
28:27 - 28:32
EN: We got a very strong bull breakout, a climax – we have 7 or 8 bull bars,
ZH: 这里的多头突破非常强，是抢购高潮—— 连续上涨了7~8根阳线
28:32 - 28:35
EN: each one closing at or above the high of the prior bar,
ZH: 每一根阳线的收盘都高于前一根K线的最高点
28:35 - 28:37
EN: and the bodies are getting bigger here, here, here,
ZH: 而且体积越来越大——这里，这里，这里，
28:37 - 28:42
EN: so we’re accelerating up – but after a Triangle and late in a bull trend.
ZH: 所以市场正在加速上涨——但背景是趋势后期、三角形
28:42 - 28:47
EN: That increases the chances that this entire breakout
ZH: 这增加了它是上涨趋势后期的竭尽型缺口的概率
28:44 - 28:47
EN: will be an Exhaustion Gap late in a bull trend.
ZH: 这增加了它是上涨趋势后期的竭尽型缺口的概率
28:47 - 28:53
EN: And you can see we went sideways here, so this is a probable Final Flag.
ZH: 可以看到市场在这里很盘，所以它是潜在的末端旗形
28:53 - 28:57
EN: A Triangle late in a bull trend, usually the Final Flag
ZH: 上涨趋势后期的三角形，通常是末端旗形
28:57 - 29:00
EN: before the market enters a Trading Range or has a reversal.
ZH: 然后市场会进入震荡区间，甚至反转
29:01 - 29:07
EN: And you’re looking for, at a minimum,
ZH: 空头的最低预期是，至少测试末端旗形（三角形）的顶点
29:03 - 29:07
EN: a test of the apex of the Final Flag (the Triangle).
ZH: 空头的最低预期是，至少测试末端旗形（三角形）的顶点
29:07 - 29:09
EN: Traders will sell the reversal down.
ZH: 交易者会在反转下跌时卖出做空
29:09 - 29:12
EN: So we have a Triangle Top after a Triangle bull flag.
ZH: 在三角形牛旗之后，这里是一个三角形的顶部
29:13 - 29:15
EN: We tried to get the bull breakout.
ZH: 尝试继续向上突破
29:15 - 29:19
EN: 50/50 chance the breakout fails, and then we got a reversal down.
ZH: 50%的概率突破会失败，然后反转下跌
29:23 - 29:29
EN: Minimum goal typically is a test of the apex of the Triangle,
ZH: 最低目标通常是测试三角形的顶点，在这里达到了
29:28 - 29:29
EN: which we have here.
ZH: 最低目标通常是测试三角形的顶点，在这里达到了
Slide 019
Time: 29:35
Bilingual Transcript
29:35 - 29:37
EN: Bear trend, bull breakout.
ZH: 下降趋势，多头突破
29:38 - 29:42
EN: Probably not enough bars for a major reversal, and therefore it’s probably
ZH: 没有足够的K线来制造大反转，因此大概率是小反转，
29:42 - 29:45
EN: a minor reversal, which usually means more sideways.
ZH: 也就意味着继续横盘震荡
29:46 - 29:49
EN: Where are the consecutive big bull trend bars?
ZH: 有连续的大阳线吗？
29:49 - 29:51
EN: We have bull bars, but bad follow-through.
ZH: 有阳线，但跟随不好
29:52 - 29:54
EN: Not enough Buying Pressure.
ZH: 没有足够大的买压
29:54 - 29:55
EN: Lots of dojis.
ZH: 很多小十字星
29:55 - 29:58
EN: It looks more neutral than bullish.
ZH: 市场是中性的，而不是看涨的
29:58 - 30:02
EN: And here, Higher Low, but 5 or 6 bars down,
ZH: 这里虽然低点抬高了，但是连续下跌了5~6根K线
30:02 - 30:04
EN: and the rally itself is not all that strong.
ZH: 而且这个反弹本身就不怎么强势
30:04 - 30:09
EN: This looks like a minor reversal, and chances are we’ll go sideways.
ZH: 这看起来像一个小反转，并且大概率会横盘
30:11 - 30:13
EN: Different ways to draw a Triangle.
ZH: 三角形的画线有不同的选择
30:13 - 30:16
EN: Reversal down, reversal down, reversal down,
ZH: 下跌，下跌，下跌；
30:16 - 30:21
EN: or first reversal down here, down, down.
ZH: 或者说第1次下跌在这里，下跌，下跌；
30:21 - 30:25
EN: Three reversals up – one, two, and three.
ZH: 3次上涨——1，2，3
30:25 - 30:26
EN: Different ways to draw it.
ZH: 不同的画线选择
30:26 - 30:27
EN: Doesn’t matter.
ZH: 这些并不关键
30:27 - 30:32
EN: It’s a Trading Range, and the lines are converging.
ZH: 这是一个震荡区间，两条线在收敛
30:32 - 30:37
EN: Once it gets 20 bars or more, it becomes a BreakOut Mode situation.
ZH: 一旦持续超过20根K线，它就变成了突破模式
30:37 - 30:40
EN: 50/50 chance you’ll get trend resumption down,
ZH: 50%的概率会继续下跌
30:40 - 30:43
EN: 50/50 chance you’ll get trend reversal up.
ZH: 50%的概率会反转上涨
30:44 - 30:48
EN: Is it a bear flag or a BreakOut Mode setup?
ZH: 这是熊旗，还是突破模式？
30:48 - 30:51
EN: To me, I think we don’t have enough Buying Pressure.
ZH: 我没有看到足够大的买压
30:51 - 30:53
EN: I think it’s more likely still Always In Short,
ZH: 所以我认为市场仍然处于单边下跌的趋势
30:53 - 30:56
EN: and I think it’s more likely we’ll get a bear breakout.
ZH: 更有可能会继续向下跌破
30:56 - 31:01
EN: Traders are looking to sell below bars, betting on the bear breakout.
ZH: 交易者会在阴线的下面卖出，押注空头突破
31:05 - 31:11
EN: We tried to reverse up again, but this was simply a pullback
ZH: 再次尝试上涨，但这只是三角形被跌破之后的反弹
31:09 - 31:11
EN: from this bear breakout of this Triangle
ZH: 再次尝试上涨，但这只是三角形被跌破之后的反弹
31:12 - 31:15
EN: or a pullback below this prior bear low.
ZH: 或者跌破这个低点之后的反弹
31:16 - 31:20
EN: You can see it tested one of the lows in the Triangle,
ZH: 可以看到，价格回测了三角形的低点
31:20 - 31:23
EN: and then twice it tested, three times it tested.
ZH: 然后再次测试，一共3次测试
31:23 - 31:25
EN: It resumed down.
ZH: 继续下跌
31:28 - 31:29
EN: Three pushes up.
ZH: 3次向上推动
31:29 - 31:35
EN: One, pullback, two, pullback, three, or two and then three.
ZH: 1，回调；2，回调；3
31:35 - 31:36
EN: A possible Wedge bear flag.
ZH: 潜在的楔形熊旗
31:36 - 31:40
EN: Traders will sell the breakout below that bar, or the pullback
ZH: 交易者会在跌破那根K线低点时做空，
31:40 - 31:44
EN: from this small breakout, they’ll sell below that bar and get short there.
ZH: 或者在反弹之后，在这根K线下方做空
31:45 - 31:48
EN: If you want you can call this a Triangle after the bear breakout,
ZH: 你可以说这是空头突破之后的三角形，
31:48 - 31:50
EN: or you can call it a Wedge bear flag,
ZH: 或者把它看作楔形熊旗
31:50 - 31:52
EN: looking for a second leg down after this breakout.
ZH: 预期突破之后会有第2段下跌
31:58 - 32:00
EN: I began by talking about a Triangle.
ZH: 这节课我们主要讲了三角形
Slide 020
Time: 32:00
Bilingual Transcript
32:00 - 32:04
EN: I use a loose definition: a Trading Range, horizontal channel,
ZH: 我对三角形的定义比较宽泛：震荡区间，水平通道，
32:04 - 32:08
EN: with lines that are usually convergent – but not always.
ZH: 通常线条是收敛的——但不一定，
32:07 - 32:10
EN: Some are expanding.
ZH: 通常线条是收敛的——但不一定， 也有扩张三角形，之后会讲到
32:09 - 32:10
EN: I’ll talk about that later.
ZH: 也有扩张三角形，之后会讲到
32:11 - 32:14
EN: I’m looking for three reversals in a Trading Range.
ZH: 我在观察震荡区间内是否有3次反转
32:14 - 32:18
EN: As soon as I see three, I think of it as a Triangle.
ZH: 如果有，我就把它看作是三角形
32:18 - 32:21
EN: If the lines are converging, I call it a Triangle.
ZH: 如果通道线是收敛的，我就说它是三角形
32:21 - 32:24
EN: If the Tight Trading Range is still mostly horizontal,
ZH: 如果是水平的、很窄幅的震荡，
32:24 - 32:26
EN: I’ll call it a Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 我就说他是窄震荡区间
32:26 - 32:31
EN: If it’s a Triangle and it’s sloped slightly up
ZH: 如果三角形略微向上或向下倾斜， 我就说它是楔形
32:28 - 32:31
EN: or sloped slightly down, I’ll call it a Wedge.
ZH: 如果三角形略微向上或向下倾斜， 我就说它是楔形
32:32 - 32:37
EN: Finally, I talked about Triangles as flags,
ZH: 最后，我讲了三角形可以是旗形， 是趋势中的延续结构
32:35 - 32:40
EN: continuation patterns within trends, or as reversal setups.
ZH: 最后，我讲了三角形可以是旗形， 是趋势中的延续结构 也可以是反转的结构
32:44 - 32:45
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
32:45 - 32:47
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
32:47 - 32:50
EN: This is the first of two videos on Triangles.
ZH: 三角形的第1节课，就先讲到这里