al-brooks-course
44D - Trading Tight Bear Channels
Raw transcript and slide notes for 44D - Trading Tight Bear Channels.
Overview
- Slides: 20
- Transcript segments: 647
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:09
EN: This is the fourth of four videos on trading in Tight Bear Channels.
ZH: 这是如何交易窄下降通道的最后一节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:11
Bilingual Transcript
00:13 - 00:16
EN: When the market’s in a Tight Bear Channel, you have to get short,
ZH: 当市场处于窄下降通道时，你必须做空
00:16 - 00:19
EN: and I’m going to talk some about how to get short.
ZH: 这节课我会讲解如何入场做空
00:19 - 00:21
EN: I also want to talk a little bit about management,
ZH: 也会讲到开仓之后的管理——
00:21 - 00:24
EN: where to put your stops and how to take your profits.
ZH: 止损放在哪里，什么时候止盈
00:24 - 00:30
EN: And then nothing goes on forever; Tight Channels usually evolve
ZH: 然后会讲到，没有什么是永远不变的； 窄通道通常会变成震荡区间
00:29 - 00:35
EN: into Trading Ranges, and I want to talk about the signs
ZH: 然后会讲到，没有什么是永远不变的； 窄通道通常会变成震荡区间 所以我想讲一讲通道开始往区间过渡的信号
00:33 - 00:35
EN: that a channel is beginning to evolve.
ZH: 所以我想讲一讲通道开始往区间过渡的信号
00:39 - 00:43
EN: The market is in a pretty Tight Channel going down here.
ZH: 目前市场处于一个相当窄的下降通道
Slide 002
Time: 00:40
Bilingual Transcript
00:48 - 00:51
EN: You have a spike down here and you’re trying to reverse.
ZH: 极速下跌，尝试反转
00:51 - 00:53
EN: You try to reverse, try to reverse, try to reverse.
ZH: 尝试反转，尝试反转，尝试反转
00:53 - 00:56
EN: Channels are trying to reverse repeatedly.
ZH: 通道在反复地尝试反转
00:56 - 00:59
EN: You have a spike, and as soon as you get a pullback, you’re in a channel.
ZH: 急速下跌（突破）之后，一旦出现反弹，市场就进入了通道
00:59 - 01:03
EN: Here we have a 6 bar breakout and then a pullback,
ZH: 这里突破持续了6根K线，然后反弹
01:03 - 01:05
EN: so this is the start of a channel.
ZH: 所以通道从这里开始
01:06 - 01:09
EN: We have another breakout and the channel is very tight.
ZH: 再次向下突破，进入了很窄的下降通道
01:10 - 01:14
EN: For this spike down, I would say this is the channel.
ZH: 因为这里的空头突破，所以它是一个大的下降通道
01:14 - 01:19
EN: So we have a very Tight Channel within a larger very Tight Channel.
ZH: 这个小的窄通道嵌套在大通道里面
01:20 - 01:25
EN: One of the problems that beginners have is when they see these reversals
ZH: 新手面临的一个问题是：当他看到这些反弹
01:25 - 01:31
EN: with decent looking bull bars, they’re afraid that the reversal
ZH: 其中有一些不错的阳线，他们害怕会发生大反转、进入上涨趋势
01:28 - 01:31
EN: will be major and turn into a bull trend.
ZH: 其中有一些不错的阳线，他们害怕会发生大反转、进入上涨趋势
01:31 - 01:34
EN: But the reality is, that’s not going to happen.
ZH: 但实际上这不会发生
01:34 - 01:41
EN: These are all going to be minor reversals, and therefore there are opportunities
ZH: 这些都将是小反转，因此有很多在反弹时逢高卖出的机会
01:38 - 01:41
EN: to sell above the low, to sell at a better price.
ZH: 这些都将是小反转，因此有很多在反弹时逢高卖出的机会
01:48 - 01:52
EN: For beginners, the best thing they should be doing is entering with stops.
ZH: 对于新手而言，最好用突破单入场
01:52 - 01:57
EN: When you see a reversal up, sell with a stop as the market’s reversing down.
ZH: 价格反弹，在恢复下跌的时候用突破单卖出
01:57 - 02:04
EN: It’s always better to sell below a bear bar, so if you do not want to sell
ZH: 最好在阴线下方卖出，如果你不想在这根阳线下方卖出， 那就等有阴线再开仓
02:00 - 02:04
EN: below this bull bar, wait for a bear bar and then sell.
ZH: 最好在阴线下方卖出，如果你不想在这根阳线下方卖出， 那就等有阴线再开仓
02:04 - 02:08
EN: Remember, Always In traders, if they get out for any reason,
ZH: 坚定的趋势交易者，如果因为某个原因提前离场了，
02:08 - 02:10
EN: they have to sell again below a bear bar.
ZH: 他们必须在阴线下方再次卖出
02:10 - 02:14
EN: So if an Always In trader gets out above this bull bar,
ZH: 假如一个趋势交易者在这根阳线的上方离场了
02:14 - 02:16
EN: he’s selling again below that bear bar.
ZH: 他会在那根阴线下方再次卖出做空
02:16 - 02:19
EN: If an Always In trader gets out above this bull bar,
ZH: 如果在这根阳线的上方离场了
02:19 - 02:23
EN: he’s going to sell again below that bear bar or below this bear bar.
ZH: 他会在这根、或这根阴线下方再次卖出做空
02:23 - 02:24
EN: Same thing.
ZH: 这里也是一样
02:25 - 02:29
EN: If a trader is trading Always In and he thinks a setup is good enough
ZH: 如果一个空头始终按照趋势持仓， 然后认为这里对于多头而言是足够好的入场点
02:29 - 02:33
EN: so that he should get out and wait to see if the bulls will be successful,
ZH: 那么他可以先离场观望，看多头是否能成功反转
02:34 - 02:38
EN: once he sees that the bulls are not successful, he has to sell again.
ZH: 一旦发现多头反转失败，就必须再次入场做空
02:38 - 02:41
EN: For me, that means selling below a bear bar.
ZH: 也就是在一根阴线下方卖出
02:43 - 02:47
EN: Also, if you think about it, if a bull buys above any of these bull bars,
ZH: 也可以从这个角度思考： 如果多头在这些阳线上方买入
02:48 - 02:51
EN: he’s going to get out fairly quickly because he sees the channel is tight
ZH: 他很快就会止损离场，因为他看到通道很窄
02:51 - 02:55
EN: and he knows the probability of a successful reversal is small.
ZH: 他知道成功反转的可能性很小
02:55 - 02:57
EN: And therefore, he’ll get out quickly.
ZH: 因此，他会很快止损
02:57 - 03:00
EN: A good way for him to get out is below a bear bar.
ZH: 其中一种离场的方法就是在阴线下方卖出
03:02 - 03:08
EN: Therefore, selling Low 1 and Low 2 pullbacks
ZH: 所以对于空头来说，下降趋势中的低1和低2是非常好的做空入场点
03:06 - 03:08
EN: in a Tight Bear Channel is a very good strategy.
ZH: 所以对于空头来说，下降趋势中的低1和低2是非常好的做空入场点
03:08 - 03:12
EN: Very profitable strategy because the bulls will give up.
ZH: 是非常好的策略，因为多头会在那里放弃
03:12 - 03:18
EN: They’re not going to be willing to hold onto a long very long
ZH: 当通道很窄的时候，多头不愿意长期持有
03:16 - 03:18
EN: when they know the channel is tight.
ZH: 当通道很窄的时候，多头不愿意长期持有
03:18 - 03:20
EN: They know that the odds are the market’s going lower.
ZH: 他们知道市场更有可能会下跌
03:24 - 03:27
EN: Selling pullbacks to resistance makes sense.
ZH: 在反弹到阻力位的时候卖出做空是合理的
03:28 - 03:31
EN: For example, the market broke to the down side.
ZH: 例如，市场向下突破
03:31 - 03:33
EN: It traded down for a number of bars.
ZH: 下跌了好多根K线
03:33 - 03:36
EN: Yes, it has a good bull bar here, a good bull bar here,
ZH: 尽管这里有一根不错的阳线，它也不错，
03:36 - 03:38
EN: another bull bar closing on its high here
ZH: 这里又有一根阳线收在最高
03:38 - 03:43
EN: - however, this channel is tight as well, and the first reversal up is minor.
ZH: 然而这个下降通道也很窄，所以第1次上涨只是小反转
03:43 - 03:48
EN: That means it’s either going to be a bear flag
ZH: 也就是说，它要么是熊旗，要么会成为震荡区间的一部分
03:45 - 03:48
EN: or it’ll become part of a Trading Range.
ZH: 也就是说，它要么是熊旗，要么会成为震荡区间的一部分
03:48 - 03:52
EN: In either case, the odds are very high (70%) that it’s going down.
ZH: 无论哪种情况，下跌的概率都非常高（70%）
03:52 - 03:56
EN: Traders therefore look to sell a test of resistance.
ZH: 因此，交易者会在反弹到阻力的时候卖出做空
03:57 - 04:00
EN: Here we broke out several bars below a prior low.
ZH: 这里跌破了前期的低点
04:01 - 04:05
EN: The rally that we get is probably going to be a test of resistance
ZH: 反弹很有可能是突破后的回测
04:05 - 04:09
EN: - either the breakout point or the top of the most recent Sell Climax,
ZH: ——回测突破点，或者回测最近一次抛售高潮的起跌点
04:09 - 04:11
EN: the most recent major Higher Low.
ZH: 最近一个重要的高点
04:11 - 04:13
EN: Traders will therefore sell there.
ZH: 因此，空头会在那里卖出做空
04:13 - 04:17
EN: They can do it with a limit order, placing a limit order to sell at that low,
ZH: 他们可以用限价单——在那个低点挂限价卖单
04:17 - 04:22
EN: knowing that bulls who bought at this low and scaled in lower,
ZH: 因为之前在这个低点买入并逢低加仓的多头，
04:22 - 04:27
EN: will be so afraid the bears are still strong once they see this channel,
ZH: 在看到突破以后，会很担心空头仍然非常强势
04:27 - 04:37
EN: they’re going to be happy to be able to get out breakeven
ZH: 如果能涨回来，让他们的初始仓位打平离场、 加仓的部分赚到一笔剥头皮的小利润，他们就很满足了
04:30 - 04:37
EN: on their first long right here, at the prior low
ZH: 如果能涨回来，让他们的初始仓位打平离场、 加仓的部分赚到一笔剥头皮的小利润，他们就很满足了
04:33 - 04:37
EN: and with a minimum profit on their lower longs.
ZH: 如果能涨回来，让他们的初始仓位打平离场、 加仓的部分赚到一笔剥头皮的小利润，他们就很满足了
04:37 - 04:40
EN: Therefore, the bulls will sell here,
ZH: 因此，多头会在这里卖出止盈
04:40 - 04:43
EN: and the bears know that, and they will sell as well.
ZH: 空头知道这一点，所以他们也会卖出
Slide 003
Time: 04:45
Bilingual Transcript
04:53 - 04:57
EN: More experienced traders see that a pullback here is only 1 bar.
ZH: 有经验的交易员，看到这里的反弹只有1根K线
04:57 - 04:58
EN: The pullback, 1 bar.
ZH: 反弹，1根K线
04:58 - 05:00
EN: A pullback, 1 bar.
ZH: 反弹，1根K线
05:00 - 05:11
EN: The pullbacks are very brief, and therefore they’re going to sell
ZH: 反弹非常短暂，因此他们会在前期高点挂单做空， 押注反弹不会超过3根K线，下降趋势会很快恢复
05:04 - 05:11
EN: at the high of a prior bar, betting that the pullback will only be
ZH: 反弹非常短暂，因此他们会在前期高点挂单做空， 押注反弹不会超过3根K线，下降趋势会很快恢复
05:07 - 05:11
EN: 1 or 2 or 3 bars, and the bear trend will resume.
ZH: 反弹非常短暂，因此他们会在前期高点挂单做空， 押注反弹不会超过3根K线，下降趋势会很快恢复
05:12 - 05:22
EN: They know the bulls are going to lose and that the bulls are going to have
ZH: 他们知道多头会失败，多头大概率会被迫以亏损的价格卖出
05:16 - 05:22
EN: to sell out of their longs – probably at a price lower than where they bought,
ZH: 他们知道多头会失败，多头大概率会被迫以亏损的价格卖出
05:22 - 05:26
EN: and therefore the bears will sell exactly where the bulls bought,
ZH: 所以空头会在多头的入场价格挂限价卖单
05:26 - 05:32
EN: believing correctly that the market is not going
ZH: 相信市场反弹不了多远，就会继续下跌
05:29 - 05:32
EN: to go much higher and that it will go lower.
ZH: 相信市场反弹不了多远，就会继续下跌
05:36 - 05:38
EN: Selling pullbacks to resistance always makes sense.
ZH: 反弹到阻力位的时候卖出做空，永远都是合理的
05:38 - 05:47
EN: Typically, in any kind of a channel, once there’s a new bear leg,
ZH: 通常，在任何类型的通道中， 空头会在价格反弹到当中三分之一区域的时候卖出
05:44 - 05:47
EN: bears look to sell around the middle third of that bear leg.
ZH: 通常，在任何类型的通道中， 空头会在价格反弹到当中三分之一区域的时候卖出
05:48 - 05:51
EN: A lot of bears like to sell a 50% pullback,
ZH: 很多空头喜欢在50%反弹的地方卖出 （注：我）
05:51 - 05:55
EN: and therefore once you see the bear leg starting to reverse,
ZH: 因此，一旦看到价格开始反弹
05:55 - 05:59
EN: some traders will place a limit order to sell at a 50% retracement
ZH: 这些空头就会在50%反弹的地方挂限价卖单
05:59 - 06:07
EN: and put a stop just above the high, believing that it’s more likely the market
ZH: 然后把止损放在最近一个重要高点的上方， 押注市场更有可能跌到新低，而不是上涨打掉止损
06:03 - 06:07
EN: will go to a new low than it is that it will go above their stop.
ZH: 然后把止损放在最近一个重要高点的上方， 押注市场更有可能跌到新低，而不是上涨打掉止损
06:09 - 06:12
EN: The risk and reward is the same.
ZH: 风险和利润大约相等
06:12 - 06:16
EN: The bears selling here are risking to just above that red line
ZH: 空头的止损在红线上方
06:16 - 06:19
EN: and they’re looking for a profit just below the prior low.
ZH: 他们想要在前期低点止盈
06:20 - 06:22
EN: But the probability is higher.
ZH: 他们在胜率上有优势
06:22 - 06:26
EN: Probability is 60% or more that it’s going below here
ZH: 至少有60%的概率，会先跌破这个低点，
06:26 - 06:30
EN: before it goes above here, and therefore the Trader’s Equation is good.
ZH: 而不是先上涨打掉止损，所以数学期望足够好
06:34 - 06:40
EN: A lot of traders, when they’re selling in a bear trend, will scale in higher.
ZH: 许多交易者在下降趋势中做空时，会在更高的价格加仓卖出
06:40 - 06:44
EN: For example, if they sell at a 50% pullback,
ZH: 例如，如果他们在50%反弹做空了，
06:44 - 06:46
EN: they might sell more 1 or 2 points higher.
ZH: 他们会在上方1或2个点卖出更多
06:47 - 06:54
EN: Traders should only be scaling in if their second entry
ZH: 加仓的前提是，距离初始入场点至少有一笔剥头皮的距离
06:50 - 06:54
EN: is at least as big as a minimum scalp.
ZH: 加仓的前提是，距离初始入场点至少有一笔剥头皮的距离
06:54 - 06:57
EN: In the Emini, a minimum scalp is 1 point.
ZH: 在ES中，剥头皮的最小目标是1个点
06:57 - 07:00
EN: Therefore, if a trader does sell here and he’s thinking about scaling in,
ZH: 所以，如果一个空头在这里卖出， 并且考虑逢高加仓、依赖初始止损
07:00 - 07:06
EN: relying on his stop, his second entry should be 1 or 2 points above his first.
ZH: 他加仓的位置至少应该在初始入场点上方1或2个点
Slide 004
Time: 07:10
Bilingual Transcript
07:13 - 07:13
EN: Channel.
ZH: 通道
07:13 - 07:18
EN: A lot of pullbacks, so many opportunities to sell above the low.
ZH: 有很多反弹，所以有很多逢高卖出的机会
07:19 - 07:27
EN: So instead of selling at the market, at this very lowest price
ZH: 市价卖出，在通道下沿卖出，这个时候仍然是可以的
07:23 - 07:27
EN: in the trend at that point – which is still okay
ZH: 市价卖出，在通道下沿卖出，这个时候仍然是可以的
07:27 - 07:29
EN: because you know the market’s going lower
ZH: 因为你知道下降趋势还会继续
07:29 - 07:33
EN: - you can probably sell at a higher price, like above the high of the prior bar.
ZH: 但你大概率可以在更高的价格卖出， 比如在前一根K线的高点上方
07:34 - 07:36
EN: Any of these pullbacks is a good sell,
ZH: 任何一次反弹都是好的做空机会
07:36 - 07:39
EN: and it allows you to sell above the lowest price.
ZH: 可以让你不用追空在最低点
07:44 - 07:48
EN: Again, any kind of resistance is a good location to sell.
ZH: 同样，任何阻力位都是好的做空机会
07:48 - 07:50
EN: I don’t have a Moving Average drawn in here,
ZH: 这里我没有把均线画出来
07:50 - 07:56
EN: but a pullback to the Moving Average,
ZH: 反弹到均线，或者从均线开始恢复下跌的时候， 是很好的做空入场点
07:53 - 07:56
EN: or a reversal down from the Moving Average is a good way to sell.
ZH: 反弹到均线，或者从均线开始恢复下跌的时候， 是很好的做空入场点
07:57 - 08:02
EN: Likewise, you can keep drawing trend lines
ZH: 还有，可以继续画均线——只要有两个高点， 就可以画一条下降趋势线
07:59 - 08:05
EN: and you can either sell at the trend line – once you have 2 points,
ZH: 还有，可以继续画均线——只要有两个高点， 就可以画一条下降趋势线 两个高点，画下降趋势线， 可以在反弹到趋势线的时候卖出
08:03 - 08:05
EN: you can draw a trend line; you can sell the trend line
ZH: 两个高点，画下降趋势线， 可以在反弹到趋势线的时候卖出
08:05 - 08:08
EN: - or you can sell a reversal down from the trend line.
ZH: 或者在价格从趋势线恢复下跌的时候卖出
08:09 - 08:13
EN: We have a break above this trend line, but we can now draw another trend line,
ZH: 突破了这条趋势线，现在可以画一条新的趋势线
08:13 - 08:15
EN: and therefore you can sell at that trend line
ZH: 可以在反弹到那条趋势线的时候卖出
08:15 - 08:18
EN: or on the reversal down from that resistance.
ZH: 或者在价格遇到阻力、恢复下跌的时候卖出
08:25 - 08:34
EN: While you can sell at a prior low, betting on a breakout
ZH: 然你可以在前期的低点下方挂突破卖单， 押注突破会走得足够远，但反弹太多了
08:30 - 08:34
EN: that goes down far enough for a profit, you get so many pullbacks,
ZH: 然你可以在前期的低点下方挂突破卖单， 押注突破会走得足够远，但反弹太多了
08:34 - 08:37
EN: it’s usually better to be selling above prior lows.
ZH: 通常还是逢高卖出更好一些
08:38 - 08:42
EN: And one of the reasons for that is in a channel,
ZH: 其中一个原因是，在下降通道里面
08:42 - 08:46
EN: the bears often take partial profits at prior lows
ZH: 空头经常会在前期低点止盈一部分
08:46 - 08:48
EN: and then look to sell more on pullbacks.
ZH: 然后在反弹的时候重新卖出
08:48 - 08:54
EN: Here, the bears obviously did not take profits, or not many bears took profits.
ZH: 这里，显然没有太多的空头在止盈
08:54 - 09:02
EN: The market went quite a bit lower, and this is an example of selling
ZH: 市场下跌了不少，这是一个在前期低点下方挂突破卖单做空并赚钱的案例
08:58 - 09:02
EN: with a stop just below the prior low being a profitable strategy.
ZH: 市场下跌了不少，这是一个在前期低点下方挂突破卖单做空并赚钱的案例
09:03 - 09:04
EN: It’s true for any of these.
ZH: 在这些地方都是这样
09:04 - 09:06
EN: You could sell on a stop below this low,
ZH: 你可以在这个低点下方挂突破卖单
09:06 - 09:09
EN: on a stop below that low, on a stop below this low.
ZH: 或者挂在它的下方、它的下方
09:09 - 09:10
EN: You’re going to make money.
ZH: 都可以赚钱
09:10 - 09:13
EN: The odds are 70% chance you’re going to make money.
ZH: 70%的概率可以赚钱
09:14 - 09:15
EN: Sell below this low.
ZH: 在这个低点下方卖出
09:15 - 09:16
EN: You get filled right here.
ZH: 订单在这里成交
09:17 - 09:18
EN: You rely on your stop.
ZH: 然后依靠合理的止损
09:19 - 09:20
EN: The reversal’s going to be minor.
ZH: 都只是小反弹
09:20 - 09:25
EN: 70% chance it’s not going to hit your stop and that you will make money.
ZH: 70%的概率可以赚钱，不会打掉止损
09:25 - 09:28
EN: But if you did sell below this little doji bar and got filled here,
ZH: 但如果你在这个小十字星下方卖出，在这里成交
09:28 - 09:32
EN: you had to wait more than 10 bars before the market went your way.
ZH: 要等10根K线之后，市场才恢复下跌
Slide 005
Time: 09:35
Bilingual Transcript
09:42 - 09:46
EN: It’s a strong bear trend, and therefore you can sell at any time,
ZH: 这是一个强下降趋势，因此你可以随时卖出
09:46 - 09:50
EN: including after the market falls 6 or 7 bars.
ZH: 包括在已经下跌了六七根K线之后去追空
09:50 - 09:52
EN: Therefore, this is a climax.
ZH: 这是一个抛售高潮
09:52 - 09:55
EN: You can sell at the bottom of a Sell Climax,
ZH: 你甚至可以在抛售高潮的时候追空
09:55 - 09:59
EN: confident that any reversal, even if it’s strong, will be minor
ZH: 押注任何反弹——哪怕很强势——也只是小反转
09:59 - 10:02
EN: and the market will come down to your price and probably lower.
ZH: 市场至少会跌回到你的入场价格，甚至更低
10:02 - 10:06
EN: If you sell at the absolute worst price, the lowest bear close,
ZH: 如果你不幸卖在最低点，整个下降趋势最低的那个收盘价
10:06 - 10:10
EN: you can sell more higher, confident that you’ll be able to make money.
ZH: 也可以逢高加仓卖出，相信这样做可以赚钱
10:15 - 10:18
EN: If you take a sell right here – let’s say you did choose to sell.
ZH: 假设你非常坚定地做空——不小心卖在最低点
10:18 - 10:22
EN: There are 6 bear bars here, 7 bear bars here,
ZH: 这里有六七根阴线
10:22 - 10:24
EN: and you sold the close of the final one.
ZH: 你正好卖在最后一根阴线的收盘
10:24 - 10:28
EN: Your stop obviously is above the top of the most recent major Lower High,
ZH: 止损可以放在最近一个重要的高点上方
10:28 - 10:33
EN: which is the top of the Sell Climax, and it did not get hit.
ZH: 也就是抛售高潮的起跌点，没有被碰到
10:33 - 10:38
EN: Most traders who take a sell like this are willing to scale in higher.
ZH: 大多数在这里追空的交易者愿意在上方加仓
10:43 - 10:52
EN: A good way to do that is selling below a bear bar, as long as the second entry
ZH: 最好是在阴线下方卖出（而不是直接挂限价卖单加仓） 前提是加仓的位置和初始入场价格之间至少间隔一笔剥头皮的距离
10:48 - 10:52
EN: is at least as big as a minimum scalp above the first entry.
ZH: 最好是在阴线下方卖出（而不是直接挂限价卖单加仓） 前提是加仓的位置和初始入场价格之间至少间隔一笔剥头皮的距离
10:52 - 10:56
EN: So if you sell this close, you see the reversal – pretty strong
ZH: 如果你在它的收盘卖出做空，遇到了强势的反弹
10:56 - 11:01
EN: - then look to sell below a bear bar, again relying on that stop,
ZH: 然后你在阴线下方加仓做空，继续依赖你的止损
11:01 - 11:05
EN: knowing that the market probably will come down and test this close,
ZH: 相信市场大概率会再次下跌，测试这个收盘价
11:05 - 11:07
EN: allowing you to get out breakeven on your first entry
ZH: 让你的初始仓位打平
11:07 - 11:11
EN: and then with a scalp profit on your higher entry.
ZH: 加仓的部分可以赚到一笔剥头皮的利润
11:17 - 11:24
EN: The bears who did sell here are obviously going to be disappointed
ZH: 在这里卖出的空头显然会对这4根收在最高的阳线感到失望
11:21 - 11:24
EN: by 4 bull bars closing on or near their highs.
ZH: 在这里卖出的空头显然会对这4根收在最高的阳线感到失望
11:25 - 11:28
EN: A very big pullback, very strong pullback after a climax.
ZH: 抛售高潮之后，出现了非常大的反弹
11:29 - 11:33
EN: Therefore, you have big down, big up, generates big confusion,
ZH: 所以是大跌、大涨，造成了困惑
11:33 - 11:37
EN: and the market will probably go sideways
ZH: 市场大概率会横盘至少5~10根K线——就像是这样
11:35 - 11:37
EN: for 5 or 10 bars or more – which it did.
ZH: 市场大概率会横盘至少5~10根K线——就像是这样
11:43 - 11:48
EN: These disappointed bears who sold here and saw this rally will be very happy
ZH: 那些卖在最低点，并且对反弹感到失望的空头，
11:48 - 11:51
EN: to get out at their original close because they’re thinking
ZH: 如果能在初始入场价格离场，就很满足了，
11:51 - 11:54
EN: that the market might now be in a Trading Range.
ZH: 因为他们知道市场很可能已经处于震荡区间
Slide 006
Time: 12:00
Bilingual Transcript
12:02 - 12:06
EN: In any channel, tight or broad, you’re going to get pullbacks.
ZH: 不管是窄通道还是宽通道，都会有回调/反弹
12:06 - 12:12
EN: A lot of times they’ll go a third or a half of the way up
ZH: 很多时候，反弹的幅度是左边下跌波段的三分之一到一半， 所以你可以在这个区域卖出做空
12:09 - 12:12
EN: of the prior bear leg, and that’s where you want to sell.
ZH: 很多时候，反弹的幅度是左边下跌波段的三分之一到一半， 所以你可以在这个区域卖出做空
12:12 - 12:14
EN: And that’s true with a Tight Bear Channel as well.
ZH: 在窄下降通道中也是如此
12:17 - 12:20
EN: For example, here’s the most recent leg down.
ZH: 例如，这是最近的下跌波段
12:20 - 12:25
EN: Traders will sell between a one-third pullback and a 50% pullback.
ZH: 交易者会在反弹到三分之一和一半的时候卖出
12:25 - 12:28
EN: This blue box is one-third of the way up,
ZH: 蓝色框框是三分之一
12:28 - 12:31
EN: and this green box is 50% of the way up.
ZH: 绿色框框是50%反弹
12:31 - 12:32
EN: So this is the sell zone.
ZH: 这就是卖出的区域
12:32 - 12:37
EN: Anywhere above a third, usually around a half, sometimes more than a half.
ZH: 从三分之一开始，到一半左右，有时超过一半
12:40 - 12:44
EN: Traders therefore will sell with limit orders.
ZH: 空头会在这个区域挂限价卖单
12:44 - 12:47
EN: Some will sell with a limit order one-third of the way up.
ZH: 一些人会把限价单挂在三分之一，
12:47 - 12:51
EN: Others will sell with a limit order 50% of the way up.
ZH: 一些人会挂在50%反弹
12:51 - 12:55
EN: Others will wait until the market goes above 50% and then sell
ZH: 一些人会等待反弹幅度超过50%，然后在恢复下跌的时候
12:55 - 12:59
EN: with a stop on the reversal down, especially below a bear bar.
ZH: 用突破卖单入场，尤其是在阴线的下方
Slide 007
Time: 13:05
Bilingual Transcript
13:10 - 13:14
EN: The reason why the channel is tight is because the reversals do not last long.
ZH: 之所以是窄通道，是因为反转不会持续很久
13:14 - 13:17
EN: They go up a bar or two and then the trend resumes.
ZH: 只是上涨一两根K线，就恢复下跌了
13:17 - 13:19
EN: Couple bars up, the trend resumes.
ZH: 上涨了两根K线，恢复下跌
13:19 - 13:21
EN: Here, 3 bars up and the trend resumes.
ZH: 这里，上涨了3根K线，恢复下跌
13:25 - 13:30
EN: Therefore, many bears will sell with a limit order at the high of the prior bar,
ZH: 因此，很多空头会在前一根K线的高点上方挂限价卖单做空
13:30 - 13:35
EN: even if it’s a bull bar, betting that the reversal
ZH: ——尽管这是一根阳线； 他们押注反弹不会超过3根K线
13:32 - 13:35
EN: will only last 1, 2, or 3 bars.
ZH: ——尽管这是一根阳线； 他们押注反弹不会超过3根K线
13:35 - 13:39
EN: If it’s only going to last 1 bar, like it did here, here, and here,
ZH: 如果反弹只持续1根K线，就像这里，这里和这里一样
13:39 - 13:42
EN: you do not have a lot of opportunity to sell.
ZH: 你就没有太多卖出的机会
13:42 - 13:44
EN: And therefore, selling at the high of the prior bar,
ZH: 所以在前一根K线高点上方挂单卖出
13:44 - 13:48
EN: betting that the pullback might only be 1 bar, is a very good way to sell.
ZH: 押注反弹很可能只有1根K线，是非常好的入场方法
13:52 - 13:56
EN: Sometimes if traders think the Buying Pressure might be pretty good,
ZH: 有时，如果交易者认为买压很大 （注：预期反弹不止一根K线）
13:56 - 14:00
EN: instead of selling above the high of the prior bar, they’ll wait for the market
ZH: 他们不会急着在前一根K线的高点卖出，
14:00 - 14:03
EN: to pull back 1 bar and then sell above the high of that bar.
ZH: 而是先等待一根反弹K线，然后在它的上方挂单 （注：等A突破前一根K线的高点，然后在A的高点挂限价卖单）
14:03 - 14:08
EN: For example, sell at the high of this bar, you get filled here on this bull bar.
ZH: 例如，（刚才说的做法是）直接在这根K线的高点挂单， 订单在下一根阳线上成交
14:08 - 14:15
EN: Other traders will look for 2 bar pullbacks, and they’ll sell
ZH: 如果预期反弹不止一根K线， 可以在第1根反弹K线的高点上方挂限价卖单，订单在这里成交
14:12 - 14:15
EN: above the high of the first pullback bar and get filled here.
ZH: 如果预期反弹不止一根K线， 可以在第1根反弹K线的高点上方挂限价卖单，订单在这里成交
14:15 - 14:16
EN: The same here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
14:16 - 14:18
EN: This bar pulled back above that bar.
ZH: 这根K线反弹到了前一根K线的上方
14:18 - 14:24
EN: Some traders will place a limit order to sell
ZH: 一些空头会在第1根反弹K线的高点挂限价卖单， 订单会在这里成交
14:21 - 14:24
EN: above the high of the first pullback bar and get filled here.
ZH: 一些空头会在第1根反弹K线的高点挂限价卖单， 订单会在这里成交
14:24 - 14:30
EN: Other traders will sell the third pullback bar with a limit order
ZH: 更保守的空头会把限价卖单挂在第2根反弹K线的高点， 然后在第3根反弹的K线上成交（注：如果预期反弹不止两根K线）
14:28 - 14:30
EN: above the high of the second pullback bar.
ZH: 更保守的空头会把限价卖单挂在第2根反弹K线的高点， 然后在第3根反弹的K线上成交（注：如果预期反弹不止两根K线）
14:33 - 14:38
EN: They’d get filled here or here or here.
ZH: 订单会在这里、这里、或这里成交
14:39 - 14:42
EN: This bull bar went above the bear bar; it’s the first pullback bar.
ZH: 这根阳线突破了前一根阴线，这是第1根反弹K线
14:42 - 14:46
EN: This bull bar went above that bull bar; it’s the second pullback bar.
ZH: 这根阳线突破了上一根阳线，是第2根反弹K线
14:46 - 14:51
EN: This bar did not go above here; however, this bar did go above there,
ZH: 这根K线没有突破，但后一根K线突破了
14:51 - 14:53
EN: so this is the third pullback bar.
ZH: 所以它是第3根反弹K线
14:58 - 15:03
EN: You have many opportunities to sell for all kinds
ZH: 有非常多的机会，在这些反弹的时候用各种方式入场做空
15:01 - 15:03
EN: of reasons on all of these pullbacks.
ZH: 有非常多的机会，在这些反弹的时候用各种方式入场做空
15:03 - 15:06
EN: Traders choose one, and they don’t take all.
ZH: 选择其中一种就可以了，而不是每个都卖出
15:06 - 15:12
EN: They don’t sell above the high of the prior bar, 1 bar higher, 2 bars higher,
ZH: 在前一根K线高点挂单做空，或者等一根、两根反弹K线再挂单
15:12 - 15:16
EN: the 33% pullback, the 50% pullback, the reversal down,
ZH: 33%反弹，50%反弹
15:16 - 15:19
EN: a strong bull close around the midpoint of the prior bear leg.
ZH: 有强势阳线收盘在50%反弹附近
15:20 - 15:22
EN: These are all ways to get short.
ZH: 这些都是合理的做空入场点
15:22 - 15:25
EN: You do not take all of them, but you do try to take one of them.
ZH: 不需要在每个地方都卖出，但至少应该选择一个入场
15:31 - 15:32
EN: We have a 6 bar pullback.
ZH: 这里反弹了6根K线
15:32 - 15:35
EN: 4 decent bull bars closing on their highs.
ZH: 4根不错的阳线收在最高
15:35 - 15:41
EN: We went above the breakout point and we have a big down, big up move.
ZH: 反弹超过了突破点，变成了大跌、大涨的行情
15:41 - 15:47
EN: Those are all signs that the bear channel
ZH: 这些都是下降通道即将转变成震荡区间的特征
15:44 - 15:47
EN: might soon be evolving into a Trading Range.
ZH: 这些都是下降通道即将转变成震荡区间的特征
15:51 - 15:55
EN: Clearly the bears are disappointed by 4 pretty good bull bars.
ZH: 显然，空头对这4根漂亮的阳线感到失望
15:55 - 15:57
EN: Some bears will exit breakeven.
ZH: 一些空头大约打平离场
15:57 - 16:00
EN: Let’s say they sold the low close,
ZH: 假设他们卖在最低的这个收盘价
16:00 - 16:02
EN: and then they sold more higher for any reason.
ZH: 然后在更高的价格加仓卖出
16:02 - 16:06
EN: They might try to get out at the midpoint between their two entries,
ZH: 他们会在两个入场点的中间离场
16:06 - 16:08
EN: with a small loss on their first entry,
ZH: 初始仓位小亏
16:08 - 16:13
EN: a small profit on their second entry, and breakeven on the trade.
ZH: 加仓的部分小赚，总体差不多打平
16:16 - 16:19
EN: Now that this pullback went above that breakout point
ZH: 现在，反弹超过了突破点
16:19 - 16:22
EN: and we have a Sell Climax and a reasonably good reversal,
ZH: 抛售高潮，然后相当强势的反弹
16:22 - 16:26
EN: bulls will begin to suspect that the market’s in a Trading Range.
ZH: 多头会思考，市场是否已经处于震荡区间
16:26 - 16:28
EN: We had a very strong bear breakout,
ZH: 非常强势的空头突破
16:28 - 16:30
EN: yet the pullback went above the breakout point.
ZH: 然而反弹回到了突破点的上方
16:31 - 16:34
EN: What will bulls think about a new low?
ZH: 如果再次创新低，多头会怎么做？
16:34 - 16:38
EN: They’ll think that trends tend to become weaker, and therefore,
ZH: 他们认为趋势会随着时间的推移变弱
16:38 - 16:43
EN: since this very strong breakout led to a pullback above the breakout point,
ZH: 由于这里的强势反弹超过了突破点
16:43 - 16:48
EN: if we get another breakout to a new low, chances are you’ll get
ZH: 所以如果再次下跌创新低的话，也会出现某种程度的反弹
16:47 - 16:48
EN: at least some kind of a rally.
ZH: 所以如果再次下跌创新低的话，也会出现某种程度的反弹
16:48 - 16:51
EN: Bulls therefore will start looking to buy.
ZH: 因此多头会开始寻找买入的机会
16:51 - 16:55
EN: They might buy with a limit order at this low and scale in lower,
ZH: 他们会在这个低点挂限价买单，并且在更低的价格加仓
16:55 - 17:02
EN: or they might buy on a reversal up, taking a chance
ZH: 或者在反转上涨时买入，押注反弹幅度会足够大， 就像之前这里一样
16:58 - 17:02
EN: that we’ll get another reasonably good bounce, like we did here.
ZH: 或者在反转上涨时买入，押注反弹幅度会足够大， 就像之前这里一样
Slide 008
Time: 17:05
Bilingual Transcript
17:07 - 17:10
EN: Placing stops correctly is very important,
ZH: 设置正确的止损，非常重要
17:10 - 17:13
EN: and you always have to be looking for reasons to take profits,
ZH: 而且你必须要有止盈的目标
17:13 - 17:16
EN: because if you do not, they eventually will disappear.
ZH: 如果没有止盈的计划，最终利润会消失
Slide 009
Time: 17:17
Bilingual Transcript
17:24 - 17:26
EN: Whenever a market’s in a bear trend,
ZH: 当市场处于下降趋势
17:26 - 17:30
EN: traders pay attention to strong breakouts to new lows.
ZH: 交易者会关注强势的跌破创新低
17:30 - 17:36
EN: Here, we’re in a bear trend and we have a strong breakout below a prior low.
ZH: 这里，市场处于下降趋势，并且强势跌破了前期的低点
17:36 - 17:40
EN: Once you get that strong breakout, traders will trail their stops.
ZH: 在跌破之后，空头会使用追踪止损的方法
17:40 - 17:47
EN: By trail the stops, that means you move the stop
ZH: 意思是把止损从前期的重要高点移动到新的重要高点上方
17:43 - 17:47
EN: from the prior major Lower High to the new major Lower High.
ZH: 意思是把止损从前期的重要高点移动到新的重要高点上方
17:47 - 17:50
EN: And they do that throughout the bear trend.
ZH: 在整个下降趋势中，他们会一直降低止损
17:50 - 17:53
EN: Pretty good breakout, pretty strong breakout to a new low.
ZH: 相当不错的突破，非常强势的跌破创新低
17:54 - 17:56
EN: At that point it’s somewhere down here.
ZH: 在下跌到这里的时候
17:56 - 17:58
EN: Traders will lower their stop right here.
ZH: 空头会把止损移动到这个高点上方
17:58 - 18:14
EN: And that does not matter whether they sold up here initially
ZH: 不管他们在趋势的开始就入场、并一直持有到现在， 还是刚刚才入场做空，此时止损都在那个高点上方
18:02 - 18:14
EN: and are still short, or if they sold right here.
ZH: 不管他们在趋势的开始就入场、并一直持有到现在， 还是刚刚才入场做空，此时止损都在那个高点上方
18:09 - 18:14
EN: Once you see a strong breakout, your stop goes above the top of that high
ZH: 不管他们在趋势的开始就入场、并一直持有到现在， 还是刚刚才入场做空，此时止损都在那个高点上方
18:14 - 18:16
EN: because that becomes a major Lower High.
ZH: 因为它变成了重要的高点
18:16 - 18:19
EN: Once you see a strong breakout, stop goes up here.
ZH: 一旦看到强势的突破，止损就可以移动过来了
18:19 - 18:23
EN: Once you see a strong breakout, stop goes here.
ZH: 一旦强势突破，就追踪止损
18:23 - 18:24
EN: Strong breakout.
ZH: 强势突破
18:24 - 18:27
EN: Here it’s a strong breakout not even to a new low.
ZH: 这里尽管有大阴线，但没有明显创新低
18:27 - 18:30
EN: Traders would put their stop up here because at this point,
ZH: 空头仍然会把止损移动下来
18:30 - 18:35
EN: they’re afraid that maybe the market is transitioning into a Trading Range.
ZH: 因为他们担心此时市场已经进入震荡区间
18:36 - 18:39
EN: In general, if you think the market’s going to transition into a Trading Range
ZH: 通常，如果你认为市场正在过渡到震荡区间
18:39 - 18:43
EN: - and it clearly is doing that here – you’re not going to let your stop be hit.
ZH: ——这里显然在横盘—— 那就不能让止损被打到
18:43 - 18:46
EN: You’re going to start trading it like a Trading Range,
ZH: 你应该按照震荡区间的方式去交易
18:46 - 18:54
EN: and you’ll exit on a reversal up near the bottom and not rely on a stop
ZH: 当价格从底部往上反转的时候，就可以离场， 而不是依赖保护性止损，因为如果是震荡区间
18:51 - 18:54
EN: above the top, because when it’s in a Trading Range,
ZH: 当价格从底部往上反转的时候，就可以离场， 而不是依赖保护性止损，因为如果是震荡区间
18:54 - 18:58
EN: at some point it’s going to start going above prior highs,
ZH: 完全有可能会略微突破前期高点
18:58 - 19:01
EN: and you don’t want to be giving back your profit,
ZH: 你不应该让利润回撤那么多
19:01 - 19:05
EN: and you certainly don’t want to be taking a loss selling on a low,
ZH: 显然不应该在区间下沿做空，然后在上沿止损
19:04 - 19:05
EN: and getting out above the high.
ZH: 显然不应该在区间下沿做空，然后在上沿止损
19:09 - 19:12
EN: Here we have a very Tight Channel.
ZH: 这里是一个窄下降通道
19:12 - 19:17
EN: You know it’s a breakout on a higher timeframe chart, so at some point in here,
ZH: 你知道在更高的时间周期上，它就是一次突破， 所以跌到这里之后，
19:17 - 19:22
EN: you can lower your stop from here to above the top of this very Tight Channel.
ZH: 你可以把止损降低到这个窄通道的起跌点上方
19:23 - 19:26
EN: Is this a major breakout? Well, I don’t know.
ZH: 这算是一次强势突破吗？难说
19:26 - 19:30
EN: I think we have a breakout to a new low, we have a couple of bear trend bars,
ZH: 尽管跌到了新低，而且有几根阴线，
19:30 - 19:34
EN: but they’re not particularly big and they don’t break strongly below that low,
ZH: 但体积不是特别大，也没有大幅跌破前期低点，
19:34 - 19:36
EN: and there are just not that many big bars here.
ZH: 不像之前有那么多大阴线
19:36 - 19:39
EN: A lot of traders would consider this a minor low,
ZH: 很多交易者会把它看做一个次要的高点
19:39 - 19:42
EN: and they would keep their stop either here or here.
ZH: 所以他们会把止损保留在这里或这里
19:43 - 19:47
EN: However, once you get this – 3, 4 bear bars closing on their lows,
ZH: 然而，一旦看到这个——连续三四根阴线收在最低
19:47 - 19:50
EN: not much overlap – this is a major Lower High,
ZH: 没有重叠——它就变成了重要的高点
19:51 - 19:55
EN: and traders would then put their stop here after they see these bars.
ZH: 看到这些阴线之后，空头会把止损移动到它的上方
20:01 - 20:05
EN: What about bear scalpers? Where’s their stop? Let’s say you sold here
ZH: 做剥头皮的空头呢？他们的止损在哪里？ 假设你在这里卖出做空
20:05 - 20:08
EN: and you’re planning to exit with a couple points’ profit.
ZH: 计划赚两个点离场
20:08 - 20:10
EN: It doesn’t matter if you’re scalping or swing trading;
ZH: 不论是做剥头皮还是波段，
20:10 - 20:14
EN: it’s better to use a swing stop, especially if you’re able to scale in.
ZH: 最好都用波段交易的止损， 尤其是你能够加仓的话
20:15 - 20:19
EN: For example, let’s say you sold the high of this bar for a scalp,
ZH: 例如，假设你在这根K线的高点挂单卖出，做剥头皮
20:19 - 20:20
EN: looking for a 2 point scalp.
ZH: 计划赚两个点离场
20:21 - 20:27
EN: It’s better to have your stop up here and sell more
ZH: 最好把止损放在这里，然后在更高的价格加仓， 这样做比用很窄的止损更好
20:24 - 20:27
EN: a couple points higher than to use a very tight stop.
ZH: 最好把止损放在这里，然后在更高的价格加仓， 这样做比用很窄的止损更好
20:27 - 20:31
EN: Very tight stops lower the probability of making money,
ZH: 止损太窄会降低赚钱的概率
20:31 - 20:34
EN: and a scalper needs a high probability.
ZH: 而剥头皮交易者需要高胜率
20:34 - 20:37
EN: And usually that means he needs a wider stop,
ZH: 通常这意味着需要使用更宽的止损
20:37 - 20:42
EN: and he can increase his probability more if he’s able to scale in.
ZH: 如果能够加仓，就可以进一步提高他的胜率
20:42 - 20:44
EN: Beginners should not be scalping.
ZH: 新手不应该做剥头皮交易
20:44 - 20:46
EN: Beginners should not be scaling in.
ZH: 新手也不应该加仓
20:47 - 20:50
EN: Those are things that very experienced traders do.
ZH: 只有已经稳定盈利的交易者才可以这样做
20:50 - 20:53
EN: Most experienced traders don’t even do that.
ZH: 甚至很多有经验的交易员也不会剥头皮
20:53 - 20:55
EN: They prefer to swing trade.
ZH: 他们更喜欢做波段交易
21:02 - 21:07
EN: It does not matter where you enter in a leg;
ZH: 不管你在哪里入场，止损位置都是一样的
21:06 - 21:07
EN: you’re going to be using the same stop.
ZH: 不管你在哪里入场，止损位置都是一样的
21:07 - 21:12
EN: Whether you sold below this bear bar or sold here or sold up here,
ZH: 无论你在这根阴线下方卖出，还是在这里卖出， 还是在反弹时卖出，
21:12 - 21:16
EN: and now the market’s down here, as soon as you see the strong breakout,
ZH: 现在市场跌到这里，一看到强势的跌破，
21:16 - 21:19
EN: the stop goes above the top of this high
ZH: 就可以把止损移动到这个高点上方
21:19 - 21:21
EN: because this then becomes a major Lower High.
ZH: 因为它成为了最新的重要高点
21:23 - 21:31
EN: The importance of a major Lower High is, the bears believe it’s a bear trend
ZH: 关键在于，只要重要的高点不断降低， 空头就认为下降趋势仍然完好
21:28 - 21:31
EN: as long as it keeps making major Lower Highs.
ZH: 关键在于，只要重要的高点不断降低， 空头就认为下降趋势仍然完好
21:32 - 21:34
EN: Once it goes above a major Lower High,
ZH: 一旦重要的高点被突破
21:34 - 21:38
EN: then traders conclude that the bear trend has ended.
ZH: 交易者就会认为下降趋势已经结束
21:38 - 21:41
EN: It’s then either in a Trading Range or possibly even in a bull trend.
ZH: 此时市场要么处于震荡区间，甚至可能处于上涨趋势
21:42 - 21:46
EN: If you’re selling based on the premise that it’s a bear trend,
ZH: 你卖出做空的前提是基于市场处于下降趋势
21:46 - 21:51
EN: and now you have evidence that it’s not, you stop trading it like a bear trend.
ZH: 如果有证据表明已经不是下降趋势， 那你就不应该再按照下降趋势去交易
21:51 - 21:55
EN: You start trading it like something else – like a Trading Range or, here,
ZH: 而是应该用其他方法——比如按震荡区间交易，或者这里
21:55 - 22:00
EN: a very strong minor reversal – traders start to look for a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 有非常强势的小反转——多头开始寻找大反转的交易机会
22:00 - 22:02
EN: Here, a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 低点抬高的大反转
22:03 - 22:05
EN: You can also call it a Head and Shoulders Bottom.
ZH: 你也可以说它是头肩底
22:05 - 22:07
EN: We have a Double Bottom for the left shoulder,
ZH: 这个双底是左肩
22:07 - 22:11
EN: then we have a head, and now we are forming a right shoulder.
ZH: 头在这里，现在正在形成右肩
Slide 010
Time: 22:15
Bilingual Transcript
22:21 - 22:26
EN: Let’s say a trader sold here or here, and now the market is down here.
ZH: 不管在这里还是这里入场做空，现在价格跌到这里
22:26 - 22:28
EN: You’re still going to use the same stop.
ZH: 此时止损的位置都是一样的
22:28 - 22:33
EN: The stop goes above the most recent major Lower High, here or here.
ZH: 就在最近一个重要高点的上方，这里或这里
22:42 - 22:47
EN: Once the market is here, you could put a stop here or here.
ZH: 当市场跌到这里以后，你可以把止损移动到这里，或者里
22:48 - 22:49
EN: You could still use a stop here.
ZH: 也可以仍然保留在这里
22:49 - 22:54
EN: You could still use a stop here, because we may get a Broad Channel,
ZH: 甚至保留在最上方，因为可能会变成宽通道
22:54 - 23:00
EN: a pullback to 50% of the height of this selloff, and then get another leg down.
ZH: 出现50%的反弹，然后再次下跌
23:00 - 23:03
EN: However, if the channel is very tight like this,
ZH: 然而，如果通道这么窄
23:03 - 23:05
EN: the reversals probably will be minor,
ZH: 大概率都只是小反转
23:05 - 23:08
EN: and therefore you do not have to risk that much.
ZH: 所以没必要冒这么大的风险
23:08 - 23:10
EN: You do not have to use that wide stop.
ZH: 没必要使用这么宽的止损
23:10 - 23:18
EN: Once it starts to transition into a Trading Range, the first reversal up,
ZH: 市场进入震荡区间， 第1次反转上涨——即使有这么大的涨幅，仍然还是小反转
23:16 - 23:18
EN: even a big reversal like this, is still minor.
ZH: 市场进入震荡区间， 第1次反转上涨——即使有这么大的涨幅，仍然还是小反转
23:18 - 23:22
EN: However, once a trader sees a big minor reversal like this,
ZH: 然而，当交易者看到这么大幅的反弹之后，
23:22 - 23:26
EN: he knows the odds are it’s clearly in a Trading Range
ZH: 他们知道市场显然处于震荡区间
23:26 - 23:31
EN: and there’s a 40% chance there may be a major reversal up on the next reversal.
ZH: 所以恢复下跌之后，有40%的概率会形成大反转
Slide 011
Time: 23:35
Bilingual Transcript
23:37 - 23:44
EN: We have a strong bear breakout, a big bear bar closing on its low,
ZH: 大阴线强势跌破，而且得到了跟随K线的确认——
23:41 - 23:44
EN: and the breakout was confirmed by this next bar.
ZH: 大阴线强势跌破，而且得到了跟随K线的确认——
23:44 - 23:46
EN: It also has a bear close.
ZH: 也是一根阴线
23:46 - 23:48
EN: This is the follow-through bar after the breakout,
ZH: 它是空头突破之后的跟随
23:48 - 23:52
EN: and when it has a bear close and the breakout is strong,
ZH: 如果也是一根阴线，就说明突破很强劲
23:52 - 23:55
EN: it increases the probability that the market’s going lower.
ZH: 这增加了市场继续下跌的概率
23:55 - 24:01
EN: And therefore, it’s always reasonable
ZH: 所以坚定持有至少一部分头寸做波段交易，永远都是合理的
23:57 - 24:01
EN: to swing part of a short or all of the short.
ZH: 所以坚定持有至少一部分头寸做波段交易，永远都是合理的
24:02 - 24:04
EN: Most traders should be looking at this as a swing trade,
ZH: 大部分交易者应该把它看作是波段交易的机会
24:04 - 24:07
EN: looking for at least some kind of a Measured Move down,
ZH: 至少把目标放在MM目标位
24:07 - 24:14
EN: maybe based upon the height of the breakout, based on the height
ZH: 比如基于突破的高度，或者基于区间的高度， 或者基于这段下跌的高度
24:10 - 24:14
EN: of the Trading Range, based upon the height of this leg down.
ZH: 比如基于突破的高度，或者基于区间的高度， 或者基于这段下跌的高度
24:14 - 24:16
EN: Gap, possibly a Measured Move down.
ZH: 有缺口，所以大概率会跌到MM目标位
24:21 - 24:26
EN: Once you see a strong breakout and follow-through, there’s a 60% probability
ZH: 一旦看到强势的突破和跟随，
24:26 - 24:30
EN: that you’re going to make a reward at least as big as your risk.
ZH: 60%的概率，利润至少和风险一样大
24:30 - 24:34
EN: If you sold this close and put a stop above the breakout bar,
ZH: 如果你在它的收盘卖出，并且把止损放在起跌点上方
24:34 - 24:39
EN: 60% chance you’re going to fall that same distance to a profit target
ZH: 60%的概率至少会先下跌相等的距离，
24:39 - 24:42
EN: before you get above the high of that breakout.
ZH: 而不是上涨打掉止损
24:46 - 24:50
EN: Initial Risk? Some traders will put it at the top of the current bear leg.
ZH: 初始止损，一些空头会放在整个下跌波段的起跌点上方
24:50 - 24:53
EN: Other traders will simply put it at the top of the Sell Climax,
ZH: 一些空头会直接放在大阴线的上方
24:53 - 25:00
EN: knowing that if this is the start of a bear trend, high probability, 60% or 70%,
ZH: 因为如果这真的是下降趋势的开始， 胜率很高——60%，70%的概率
25:00 - 25:04
EN: it’s not going to go above the high of this Sell Climax before going down.
ZH: 会继续下跌，而不是突破大阴线的高点
25:08 - 25:14
EN: Once it went down, the trader who sold this close now knows that his Actual Risk
ZH: 继续下跌之后，在这个收盘卖出的空头就知道，
25:14 - 25:19
EN: was to 1 tick above the high of the pullback bar, so a very small Actual Risk.
ZH: 他实际上承担的风险就是到反弹K线的高点上方1个tick， 所以实际风险很小
25:19 - 25:21
EN: Let’s say he put his initial stop right here.
ZH: 假设他把初始止损放在这里
25:21 - 25:24
EN: That was his Initial Risk.
ZH: 初始风险是这么多
25:24 - 25:28
EN: He was willing to risk between his entry price and that stop,
ZH: 他愿意承担的风险是从入场价，到这条止损线——
25:28 - 25:30
EN: 1 tick above this bar.
ZH: 大阴线上方1个tick
25:30 - 25:34
EN: But it turned out he only had to risk to 1 tick above this bar.
ZH: 但后来发现，实际上只承担了这一点点风险
25:34 - 25:37
EN: He did not know that at the time he put his trade on,
ZH: 开仓的时候，他并不知道这一点
25:37 - 25:42
EN: but once the market started going down, he then knew that his risk was
ZH: 但是一旦市场开始下跌，他就知道他实际上承担的风险
25:42 - 25:45
EN: to just above the highest pullback after his entry.
ZH: 就只是到反弹的最高点上方1个tick
25:50 - 25:59
EN: To have a positive Trader’s Equation, all a trader has to do is take a profit
ZH: 想要让数学期望为正，就至少要追求一倍于实际风险的利润
25:55 - 25:59
EN: that is at least one times bigger than his Actual Risk.
ZH: 想要让数学期望为正，就至少要追求一倍于实际风险的利润
26:00 - 26:05
EN: If he sells here and it starts to go down, he now sees his Actual Risk is here.
ZH: 如果他在这里卖出，然后市场开始下跌， 他现在就知道了他的实际风险在这里
26:05 - 26:10
EN: As long as he takes a profit that is as big as that risk, the math is good.
ZH: 只要他在一倍实际风险的地方止盈，在数学上就合理了
26:10 - 26:12
EN: It’s a profitable strategy.
ZH: 是一个能够盈利的策略
26:12 - 26:15
EN: If he does that 100 times, he will make money.
ZH: 如果他这样做100次，他会赚钱
26:18 - 26:23
EN: He could therefore exit right here at one times his Actual Risk.
ZH: 所以他可以选择在一倍实际风险处止盈离场
26:24 - 26:28
EN: If he does that consistently every time he sees this setup, he will make money.
ZH: 如果每次遇到这样的机会，他都这样做，最终可以赚钱
26:28 - 26:31
EN: However, he will not make much money.
ZH: 但不会赚很多钱
26:31 - 26:35
EN: Look at the size of the trend to the left.
ZH: 看看左边的趋势大小
26:35 - 26:39
EN: Should he be going for a profit that small? No, of course not.
ZH: 应该追求这么小的利润吗？不，当然不应该
26:39 - 26:43
EN: Going for the minimum of anything in life is rarely the best choice.
ZH: 对最低目标感到满足，在生活中往往不是最好的选择
26:44 - 26:47
EN: Hoping that you make the minimum wage, that’s a terrible choice.
ZH: 想象一下，老板给你发最低工资，是什么样的感受
26:47 - 26:51
EN: Hoping that you get a ‘D’ in school, terrible choice.
ZH: 在大学里如果成绩都是D，甚至都无法毕业
Slide 012
Time: 26:55
Bilingual Transcript
26:58 - 27:03
EN: When the Actual Risk is small and the trend is big,
ZH: 如果趋势很大，而实际风险很小的话
27:03 - 27:07
EN: a lot of traders will not exit at one times Actual Risk.
ZH: 就不应该再用实际风险作为参考了
27:07 - 27:11
EN: However, they might take partial profits at one times Initial Risk.
ZH: 而是可以在一倍初始风险的地方止盈一部分
27:11 - 27:16
EN: Some traders had Initial Risk here; other traders had Initial Risk there.
ZH: 一些人的初始止损在这里，一些人在这里
27:21 - 27:25
EN: And that is a reasonable location for taking partial profits.
ZH: 在这里止盈一部分，是合理的
27:25 - 27:32
EN: So had you sold this close and put your stop
ZH: 如果你在它的收盘卖出做空，然后把止损放在大阴线的上方， 一倍初始风险就在这里
27:27 - 27:32
EN: above this Sell Climax, this is one times Initial Risk.
ZH: 如果你在它的收盘卖出做空，然后把止损放在大阴线的上方， 一倍初始风险就在这里
27:32 - 27:34
EN: That is a reasonable place to take profits.
ZH: 这是一个合理的止盈位置
27:34 - 27:36
EN: And look what happened.
ZH: 看看发生了什么
27:36 - 27:39
EN: That tells you that a lot of traders did exactly that,
ZH: 这说明确实有很多空头止盈了
27:39 - 27:42
EN: that a lot of the bears took partial profits here.
ZH: 至少减仓了一部分
27:43 - 27:44
EN: You’re swing trading.
ZH: 你在做波段交易
27:44 - 27:47
EN: This is not an obvious strong reversal.
ZH: 这里并没有明显的反转上涨
27:47 - 27:52
EN: It’s a minor reversal, and therefore you should only take partial profits
ZH: 只是小反转，就算要止盈，也最多止盈一部分
27:52 - 27:55
EN: if you take any profits at all, because the odds are any reversal’s
27:55 - 27:58
EN: going to be minor and the trend will continue down.
ZH: 因为在任何反弹之后，趋势都会继续下跌
28:02 - 28:05
EN: Traders who put their stop 1 tick above the top of the bear leg
ZH: 一些人把止损放在整个波段的起跌点上方
28:05 - 28:09
EN: had an Initial Risk from their entry price to the stop,
ZH: 从入场价格，到止损价格（往下翻一倍）
28:09 - 28:13
EN: and some of those traders will exit at one times that Initial Risk.
ZH: 其中一些人会在一倍初始风险的地方离场
28:13 - 28:15
EN: And again, you can see what happened.
ZH: 可以看到，价格又反弹了
28:15 - 28:18
EN: That tells you that a lot of traders did exactly that.
ZH: 说明很多空头都在这么做
28:19 - 28:22
EN: They took partial profits at one times their Initial Risk.
ZH: 他们在一倍初始风险的地方止盈了一部分
28:22 - 28:26
EN: Obviously, a lot of bears did that, and we got a pretty good bounce.
ZH: 显然，很多空头都这样做，于是造成了较大的反弹
28:26 - 28:29
EN: The bulls knew the bears would do that,
ZH: 多头知道空头会这样做
28:29 - 28:31
EN: and therefore bull scalpers will buy there as well.
ZH: 所以他们也会在这里买入，做剥头皮
Slide 013
Time: 28:35
Bilingual Transcript
28:40 - 28:43
EN: When you have a high probability trade, which you always have in a trend,
ZH: 如果是高胜率的交易机会——通常是在趋势中，
28:43 - 28:52
EN: the math is always good to take partial or full profits at one
ZH: 在一倍、两倍实际风险或初始风险的地方止盈一部分， 然后继续持有剩余的头寸，这样做的数学期望是合理的
28:47 - 28:52
EN: or two times actual or Initial Risk and swing the remainder of your position.
ZH: 在一倍、两倍实际风险或初始风险的地方止盈一部分， 然后继续持有剩余的头寸，这样做的数学期望是合理的
28:52 - 28:56
EN: However, as I said, if the risk is too small,
ZH: 然而，刚才已经讲过，如果实际风险非常小
28:56 - 28:59
EN: exiting at one times that does not make sense.
ZH: 那么在一倍的地方止盈就没有任何意义
28:59 - 29:04
EN: It’s a bad choice because you probably
ZH: 是一个糟糕的选择，因为你完全可以继续持有赚到更多钱
29:01 - 29:04
EN: would make much more profit if you held on.
ZH: 是一个糟糕的选择，因为你完全可以继续持有赚到更多钱
29:11 - 29:15
EN: A reasonable alternative to exiting at one times Actual Risk
ZH: 一个合理的替代方案是，
29:15 - 29:23
EN: is to hold on to your entire position until there are
ZH: 坚定持有，直到某个价格，至少有两个理由说明它可能存在支撑
29:19 - 29:23
EN: at least two reasons to expect support.
ZH: 坚定持有，直到某个价格，至少有两个理由说明它可能存在支撑
29:28 - 29:35
EN: And then you could exit most or all, either with a limit order
ZH: 然后你可以挂限价单止盈部分或全部， 或者在反转上涨的时候用突破买单离场
29:32 - 29:35
EN: or a stop, as the market reverses up.
ZH: 然后你可以挂限价单止盈部分或全部， 或者在反转上涨的时候用突破买单离场
29:39 - 29:45
EN: Every trend eventually ends, and it usually ends
ZH: 所有趋势都有结束的一天，它通常会进入震荡区间
Slide 014
Time: 29:40
Bilingual Transcript
29:43 - 29:45
EN: by evolving into a Trading Range.
ZH: 所有趋势都有结束的一天，它通常会进入震荡区间
29:45 - 29:50
EN: And then once in a Trading Range, the bulls hope to get a reversal up,
ZH: 进入震荡区间之后，多头希望可以向上反转
29:50 - 29:54
EN: and the bears hope that the trend eventually resumes down.
ZH: 空头希望最终能恢复下跌
Slide 015
Time: 29:55
Bilingual Transcript
29:58 - 30:02
EN: We have a bear trend and a Trading Range, and now we’re trying to reverse up.
ZH: 下降趋势，变成震荡区间，现在尝试向上反转
30:02 - 30:08
EN: We don’t yet know if it does reverse up, but we do know that
ZH: 尽管不知道最终能不能反转，但此刻至少知道， 它已经不再是窄下降通道了
30:05 - 30:08
EN: it’s no longer a Tight Bear Channel at this point.
ZH: 尽管不知道最终能不能反转，但此刻至少知道， 它已经不再是窄下降通道了
30:13 - 30:18
EN: You should trade it like a channel until it’s clearly no longer a channel,
ZH: 你应该一直按照通道去交易它，直到它显然不再是通道，
30:18 - 30:20
EN: and then you trade it like a Trading Range.
ZH: 然后按照震荡区间去交易
30:26 - 30:32
EN: Whenever any kind of trend lasts 20 or more bars, you have to look for signs
ZH: 每当趋势持续了超过20根K线， 就要开始寻找它即将变成震荡区间的信号了
30:30 - 30:32
EN: that it might soon evolve into a Trading Range.
ZH: 每当趋势持续了超过20根K线， 就要开始寻找它即将变成震荡区间的信号了
30:35 - 30:39
EN: We have a bear breakout and we’ve got a Measured Move down.
ZH: 空头突破，继续跌到了MM目标位
30:39 - 30:41
EN: Therefore, this is a support level.
ZH: 因此，这是一个支撑位
30:45 - 30:53
EN: We have a round number, 1870, just like 1880,
ZH: 有一个整数——1870， 就像1880，1890，1900，这些都是整数位
30:48 - 30:53
EN: 1890 is a round number, 1900 is a round number.
ZH: 有一个整数——1870， 就像1880，1890，1900，这些都是整数位
30:56 - 31:00
EN: We have a breakout above the top of a Tight Bear Channel,
ZH: 向上突破了窄通道的趋势线
31:01 - 31:06
EN: and therefore we might start to be evolving into a Trading Range.
ZH: 因此可能开始进入震荡区间
31:13 - 31:14
EN: We have a Triangle.
ZH: 三角形
31:14 - 31:17
EN: Three pushes up – one, pullback, two, pullback, three.
ZH: 3次向上的推动——1，回调；2，回调；3
31:17 - 31:19
EN: Does not matter that this went below that.
ZH: 它略微更低一些，但无所谓
31:21 - 31:24
EN: Any time you see a Trading Range and it has three legs,
ZH: 每当你看到震荡区间里面有3次推动
31:24 - 31:28
EN: especially if you get Lower Highs or Higher Lows, you can call it a Triangle.
ZH: 尤其如果高点在降低、低点在抬高的话， 就可以把它看作是三角形
31:28 - 31:30
EN: Doesn’t matter what you call it.
ZH: 怎么叫它并不重要
31:30 - 31:33
EN: What you have to realize is what the market’s doing.
ZH: 关键是要意识到市场在做什么
31:33 - 31:35
EN: It’s becoming two-sided.
ZH: 开始出现双向交易
31:35 - 31:38
EN: Also, we’re starting to see a lot of dojis and a lot of decent bull bars.
ZH: 而且，开始出现很多十字星，和漂亮的阳线
31:39 - 31:41
EN: Therefore, the bears are getting weaker.
ZH: 说明空头在变弱
31:42 - 31:44
EN: Limit order bulls are making money.
ZH: 限价单多头能赚到钱了
31:44 - 31:47
EN: Buying below this low and scaling in, they made money.
ZH: 在这个低点下方买入并加仓，他们赚到钱了
31:47 - 31:50
EN: Buying at this low, they made money.
ZH: 在这个低点挂单买入，他们赚钱了
31:55 - 31:58
EN: The biggest bear bar in the entire bear trend.
ZH: 整个下降趋势中最大的阴线
31:58 - 32:06
EN: Any time you see the biggest bear bar occurring 20 or more bars
ZH: 如果下降趋势已经持续了超过20根K线—— 这里可能已经持续了60根K线
32:03 - 32:10
EN: into a bear trend – here, maybe 60 bars into a bear trend
ZH: 如果下降趋势已经持续了超过20根K线—— 这里可能已经持续了60根K线 再看到最大的大阴线——更有可能让趋势衰竭
32:07 - 32:10
EN: - it’s more likely that it’s an exhaustive end of the move
ZH: 再看到最大的大阴线——更有可能让趋势衰竭
32:10 - 32:13
EN: than the start of an even stronger leg down.
ZH: 而不是进入更强的下降趋势
32:17 - 32:19
EN: We have a nested High 2 buy.
ZH: 这里有一个嵌套式的高2结构
32:19 - 32:22
EN: There’s a High 1, pullback, High 2.
ZH: 这里是高1，反弹，高2
32:22 - 32:23
EN: This did not work.
ZH: 没有反转成功
32:23 - 32:27
EN: It became a two-legged move down to a bigger High 2.
ZH: 变成了两段大的下跌，形成更大的高2结构
32:27 - 32:30
EN: So, two legs down, one, pullback, two.
ZH: 两段下跌——1，反弹，2
32:30 - 32:33
EN: Trading Ranges often have two legs down, two legs up.
ZH: 震荡区间里通常都有两段下跌、两段上涨
32:40 - 32:43
EN: We have a strong bull reversal at the bottom of a channel,
ZH: 价格从通道下沿开始强势地反转上涨
32:43 - 32:45
EN: and the channel is getting flatter.
ZH: 而且通道变得更平缓
32:45 - 32:48
EN: A very steep channel here, a flatter channel here.
ZH: 之前通道非常陡峭，现在变得平缓
32:48 - 32:51
EN: Strong reversal up, 2 consecutive bull bars.
ZH: 强势反转上涨，连续两根阳线
32:51 - 32:55
EN: Probably Always In Long and probably going at least a little bit higher.
ZH: 也许已经是单边上涨，至少还能再涨一些
32:55 - 33:01
EN: Maybe a Measured Move up based upon the height
ZH: 可能会涨到MM目标位——把这两根阳线的高度往上翻一倍， 最终在这里达到了
32:58 - 33:01
EN: of those 2 bull bars – which it did reach here.
ZH: 可能会涨到MM目标位——把这两根阳线的高度往上翻一倍， 最终在这里达到了
33:02 - 33:05
EN: As soon as you decide the market’s Always In Long
ZH: 一旦你判断市场处于单边上涨
33:05 - 33:07
EN: - for example, by the close of this bull bar
ZH: ——比如在这根阳线收盘的时候
33:07 - 33:10
EN: - if you’re short, it’s always better just to get out,
ZH: 如果你做空了，最好赶紧离场
33:11 - 33:14
EN: because the reversal could go a lot further than what you think.
ZH: 因为反转可能比你想象中走得更远
33:15 - 33:17
EN: So if you did not get out for any other reason,
ZH: 如果你之前没有离场，
33:18 - 33:21
EN: once you see the market is Always In Long, you exit.
ZH: 当你看到市场进入单边上涨了，就直接走
33:21 - 33:24
EN: You can just buy back your shorts at the market.
ZH: 直接市价买入，回补空头仓位
Slide 016
Time: 33:30
Bilingual Transcript
33:32 - 33:34
EN: If you are short – let’s say you shorted here
ZH: 如果你做空了——假设你在这里入场
33:34 - 33:45
EN: - and you’re starting to get good reasons to suspect that the market’s no longer
ZH: 现在你有足够的理由怀疑，市场不再处于下降通道， 而是变成了震荡区间，那么止盈离场就是一个合理的选择
33:38 - 33:45
EN: in a bear channel and has evolved into a Trading Range,
ZH: 现在你有足够的理由怀疑，市场不再处于下降通道， 而是变成了震荡区间，那么止盈离场就是一个合理的选择
33:42 - 33:45
EN: that is a good reason to take your final profits.
ZH: 现在你有足够的理由怀疑，市场不再处于下降通道， 而是变成了震荡区间，那么止盈离场就是一个合理的选择
33:47 - 33:49
EN: Whenever you think the trend has ended,
ZH: 只要你认为趋势已经结束
33:49 - 33:54
EN: the odds are you’re going to get 10 bars, two legs sideways to up.
ZH: 很可能会有两段、10根K线的横盘甚至上涨
33:54 - 33:59
EN: You’re going to get a TBTL pullback – 10 bars, two legs, pullback.
ZH: TBTL——指反弹至少持续两段、10根K线
34:04 - 34:08
EN: Big consecutive bull bars closing on their highs, very little overlap.
ZH: 连续大阳线收在最高，几乎没有重叠
34:08 - 34:10
EN: The market’s Always In Long.
ZH: 市场已经处于单边上涨
34:11 - 34:13
EN: That tells you that the bears are giving up.
ZH: 这告诉你空头正在放弃
34:13 - 34:16
EN: The bears have decided that the bear trend has ended,
ZH: 空头判断下降趋势已经结束
34:16 - 34:20
EN: and it’s now either in a Trading Range, possibly in a bull trend.
ZH: 现在要么处于震荡区间，要么处于上涨趋势
34:20 - 34:22
EN: This is a sign that the bears are giving up.
ZH: 这是空头放弃的信号
34:23 - 34:26
EN: It’s also a sign that the bulls are getting very aggressive,
ZH: 这也是多头变得非常激进的信号
34:26 - 34:35
EN: confident that the bear trend has ended, and we might now be either
ZH: 多头相信下降趋势已经结束 现在要么是震荡区间中一个大的上涨波段， 甚至已经处于上涨趋势
34:30 - 34:35
EN: in a Trading Range that could go up a long way or possibly even in a bull trend.
ZH: 现在要么是震荡区间中一个大的上涨波段， 甚至已经处于上涨趋势
34:44 - 34:46
EN: Major Lower High, major Lower High,
ZH: 重要的高点，重要的高点
34:46 - 34:49
EN: and we broke above it and then we broke strongly above it.
ZH: 突破了它，然后强势突破了它
34:50 - 34:53
EN: The remaining bears are buying back their shorts in a panic.
ZH: 剩下的空头匆忙离场、连滚带爬
34:54 - 34:58
EN: Most bears exited earlier, but the remaining bears are giving up here.
ZH: 大部分空头之前就离场了，剩下的也都在这里放弃了
34:59 - 35:02
EN: And then you also have bulls who are buying as well.
ZH: 同时多头在大量地买入
35:02 - 35:06
EN: The bears are buying back their shorts; the bulls are buying as well,
ZH: 空头在买入回补，多头在买入做多
35:06 - 35:09
EN: betting that at worst, it’s now a Trading Range.
ZH: 押注最差最差也是一个震荡区间
35:09 - 35:16
EN: And if it’s a Trading Range, chances are it will not fall much
ZH: 就算真的是震荡区间，也不会大幅跌破这个低点， 所以他们可以在更低的价格加仓
35:14 - 35:16
EN: below this low, and they can buy more lower.
ZH: 就算真的是震荡区间，也不会大幅跌破这个低点， 所以他们可以在更低的价格加仓
35:16 - 35:19
EN: So they’re willing to buy every strong bull close,
ZH: 他们愿意在每根强势阳线的收盘买入
35:19 - 35:22
EN: knowing that it’s either going to go up into a bull trend
ZH: 知道市场要么进入上涨趋势，让他们赚钱
35:22 - 35:27
EN: and then they’ll make money, or it’ll go down and not fall much below this.
ZH: 或者，就算下跌，也不会大幅跌破这个低点
35:27 - 35:30
EN: They can buy more lower, expecting it to come back up here,
ZH: 他们可以逢低加仓，押注价格会涨回到这里
35:30 - 35:33
EN: and then they get out breakeven on their first entry,
ZH: 这样他们的初始仓位就可以打平
35:33 - 35:35
EN: a profit on their second entry.
ZH: 下方加仓的部分有盈利
35:35 - 35:38
EN: Therefore, it’s a profitable strategy to buy here
ZH: 因此在这里买入是一个可以盈利的策略——
35:38 - 35:41
EN: if you’re able to use a wide stop and scale in.
ZH: 如果能够正确的使用宽止损并加仓的话
35:43 - 35:49
EN: The bulls bought all the way up, knowing that eventually
ZH: 多头一路买入做多，尽管最终会有回调—— 也许是深度回调，变成震荡区间
35:46 - 35:49
EN: there would be a pullback – maybe a deep pullback and a Trading Range
ZH: 多头一路买入做多，尽管最终会有回调—— 也许是深度回调，变成震荡区间
35:49 - 35:52
EN: - but there might not be a pullback, and it might go straight up.
ZH: 但也有可能不回调，只显示这
35:52 - 35:55
EN: If there was a deep pullback and they managed their trades correctly,
ZH: 就算真的有深度回调，只要他们正确地管理了这笔交易
35:55 - 35:57
EN: they could avoid a loss.
ZH: 至少可以避免亏损
35:57 - 36:03
EN: So buying for any reason at any moment is a logical strategy.
ZH: 所以，在任何时刻，用任何方式买入，都是合理的做法
36:03 - 36:05
EN: Most bulls are not going to buy this high.
ZH: 大多数人不愿意在这么高的价格追涨
36:05 - 36:08
EN: Third push up – one, pullback, two, pullback, three
ZH: 第3次推动——1，回调；2，回调；3
36:08 - 36:10
EN: - 50% pullback in a bear trend.
ZH: 是下降趋势的50%反弹
36:10 - 36:12
EN: However, some will.
ZH: 然而，一些交易者仍然会买入
36:15 - 36:16
EN: Bulls are buying to get long.
ZH: 多头买入做多
36:16 - 36:18
EN: Bears are buying to get out of shorts.
ZH: 空头买入回补
36:22 - 36:24
EN: We have an exhaustive Sell Climax.
ZH: 之前有一个衰竭型的抛售高潮
36:24 - 36:32
EN: The gap between the high of this pullback bar and this low,
ZH: 这根反弹K线的高点，和这个低点、这个低点之间的缺口， 大概率是竭尽型缺口
36:29 - 36:32
EN: this low, this low, probably is an Exhaustion Gap.
ZH: 这根反弹K线的高点，和这个低点、这个低点之间的缺口， 大概率是竭尽型缺口
36:32 - 36:35
EN: The market’s probably going to go above those lows.
ZH: 反弹大概率会超过这些低点
36:35 - 36:41
EN: It’s probably going above the top of this final Sell Climax bar,
ZH: 大概率会超过最后这根大阴线的高点——竭尽型缺口K线
36:39 - 36:41
EN: an Exhaustion Gap bar.
ZH: 大概率会超过最后这根大阴线的高点——竭尽型缺口K线
36:41 - 36:44
EN: And therefore, bulls will buy for any reason,
ZH: 因此，多头会用任何方式买入，
36:44 - 36:46
EN: and the bears should be getting out as well.
ZH: 空头也应该尽早平仓离场
36:46 - 36:49
EN: For example, as soon as they see this big bull bar,
ZH: 例如，一旦他们看到这个大阳线
36:49 - 36:53
EN: they might place a stop to buy back their shorts 1 tick above its high.
ZH: 他们就会在它上方1个tick挂突破买单，回补空头仓位
36:55 - 36:58
EN: Big down, big up, big confusion – at a minimum, sideways.
ZH: 大跌，大涨，造成困惑——至少会横盘
36:58 - 37:01
EN: Context is good enough for a reversal.
ZH: 背景足够好，支持反转的可能
37:06 - 37:14
EN: By the close of a second consecutive bull bar after a Sell Climax
ZH: 抛售高潮之后，连续两根大阳线收在最高， 而且左边是潜在的末端旗形，空头必须离场
37:11 - 37:14
EN: and a possible Final Flag, traders have to get out.
ZH: 而且左边是潜在的末端旗形，空头必须离场
37:14 - 37:19
EN: I would always get out in this situation because it’s no longer a bear trend,
ZH: 遇到这种情况，我一定会离场，因为已经不再是下降趋势了
37:19 - 37:21
EN: and the odds are we’re going up for some kind of a Measured Move.
ZH: 大概率会上涨到某个MM目标位
37:21 - 37:25
EN: We might pull back a little bit first, but the odds are we’re going higher.
ZH: 就算先有一些回调，也会再次上涨
37:25 - 37:27
EN: And it’s no longer a bear trend.
ZH: 不再是下降趋势
37:27 - 37:30
EN: It’s probably a Trading Range, and it might even be a bull trend.
ZH: 大概率是震荡区间，甚至上涨趋势
37:31 - 37:32
EN: If it’s no longer a bear channel,
ZH: 既然不再是下降通道
37:32 - 37:35
EN: I don’t want to be treating it like a bear channel.
ZH: 那我就不想再按照下降通道的方式来交易了
37:39 - 37:42
EN: We have a bear breakout and then another bear breakout.
ZH: 回调，再次回调
37:42 - 37:46
EN: We have one push down, two pushes down, three pushes down, four pushes down.
ZH: 第1推，第2推，第3推，第4推
37:46 - 37:49
EN: This is a Wedge Higher Low.
ZH: 楔形牛旗，形成更高的低点
37:49 - 37:51
EN: Look at the reversals here.
ZH: 观察下跌途中的反弹
37:51 - 37:55
EN: This is a weak bear leg after a very strong bull leg.
ZH: 这是强上涨波段后的弱下降波段
37:55 - 38:00
EN: This is therefore probably a bear leg in what will become a Trading Range,
ZH: 因此大概率只是震荡区间中的下跌波段
38:00 - 38:04
EN: and it might also be a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal
ZH: 也有可能是低点抬高的大反转结构
38:04 - 38:06
EN: that could lead to a big bull trend.
ZH: 有可能会形成上涨趋势
38:07 - 38:09
EN: Therefore, bulls will buy a reversal up,
ZH: 所以，多头会在反转上涨时买入
38:09 - 38:12
EN: especially above a decent looking bull bar.
ZH: 尤其是在一根漂亮的阳线上方买入
Slide 017
Time: 38:15
Bilingual Transcript
38:21 - 38:24
EN: One obvious sign that a channel is weakening is that you’re starting
ZH: 通道在变弱的一个明显的信号，
38:24 - 38:27
EN: to get repeated rallies above the bear trend line.
ZH: 就是反弹总是超过下降趋势线
38:28 - 38:33
EN: That makes the trend wider and less steep, which means less strong,
ZH: 这使得通道越来越宽，而且不再那么陡峭， 所以不再那么强劲
38:33 - 38:37
EN: and you have to assume it’ll eventually be so weak
ZH: 你必须假设它最终会变得非常弱——也就是变成震荡区间
38:35 - 38:37
EN: that it will be a Trading Range.
ZH: 你必须假设它最终会变得非常弱——也就是变成震荡区间
38:39 - 38:41
EN: A bear trend, we broke above the trend line.
ZH: 下降趋势，多头突破了趋势线
38:42 - 38:45
EN: You can draw a new trend line, and then we broke above this line.
ZH: 可以画一条新的趋势线，然后它也被突破了
38:46 - 38:50
EN: This line is flatter, so the channel is becoming less steep, less strong.
ZH: 这条线更平缓，所以通道不再那么陡峭、那么强势
38:51 - 38:53
EN: And you can keep drawing lines,
ZH: 你可以继续画线
38:53 - 38:55
EN: and the lines are getting flatter and flatter and flatter.
ZH: 这些线变得越来越平缓
39:00 - 39:04
EN: And eventually the market is in a Trading Range.
ZH: 最终市场变成横向的震荡区间
39:06 - 39:09
EN: We do have a Trading Range here already,
ZH: 这里已经有一个震荡区间
39:09 - 39:11
EN: and then this became a bigger Trading Range.
ZH: 然后变成了更大的区间
39:11 - 39:13
EN: You could argue that the Trading Range began here.
ZH: 你可以说震荡区间从这里就开始了——
39:13 - 39:15
EN: Spike, pullback, channel.
ZH: 急速下跌、反弹、通道
39:15 - 39:17
EN: Usually the channel becomes a Trading Range.
ZH: 通道往往会变成震荡区间
39:17 - 39:20
EN: You can see this high tested near the top of that channel.
ZH: 可以看到，这个高点测试了通道的起点
Slide 018
Time: 39:30
Bilingual Transcript
39:31 - 39:38
EN: Any trend that goes on about 20 bars or more, often will start to have signs
ZH: 如果趋势持续超过20根K线， 常会开始有信号表明它正在往震荡区间过渡
39:36 - 39:38
EN: that it’s transitioning into a Trading Range.
ZH: 如果趋势持续超过20根K线， 常会开始有信号表明它正在往震荡区间过渡
39:39 - 39:43
EN: And therefore, after a trend lasts about 20 bars or so,
ZH: 因此，在趋势持续了约20根K线之后
39:43 - 39:46
EN: you should be aware that it might evolve into a Trading Range.
ZH: 你应该意识到它可能会演变成震荡区间
39:46 - 39:51
EN: If the trend looks like this, there’s no sign
ZH: 如果趋势这么窄，没有证据表明它正在变成震荡区间
39:49 - 39:51
EN: that it’s evolving into a Trading Range.
ZH: 如果趋势这么窄，没有证据表明它正在变成震荡区间
39:51 - 39:55
EN: It’s still a very Tight Bear Channel, and you should only be looking to sell.
ZH: 它一直处于非常窄的下降通道，所以你只能做空
39:55 - 39:59
EN: However, when you’re starting to get stronger bull legs like this,
ZH: 然而，如果反弹越来越强势
39:59 - 40:04
EN: it’s still a channel; however, it’s probably soon evolving into a Trading Range.
ZH: 尽管此时仍然处于通道，但它很快就会演变成震荡区间
40:08 - 40:11
EN: We have a Trading Range here for about 20 bars.
ZH: 这个震荡区间持续了大约20根K线
40:11 - 40:14
EN: However, it’s a pause in a very strong bear trend,
ZH: 但它只是强下降趋势中的暂停
40:14 - 40:17
EN: and the first pause, the first Trading Range,
ZH: 第1次暂停、第1个震荡区间之后
40:17 - 40:21
EN: is likely to have trend resumption down – which it has here.
ZH: 趋势大概率会恢复——就像这样
40:22 - 40:24
EN: But it immediately reversed up.
ZH: 但它立刻反转上涨了
40:24 - 40:28
EN: A Trading Range late in a bear trend usually becomes the final bear flag,
ZH: 下降趋势后期的震荡区间往往会变成末端熊旗
40:28 - 40:35
EN: which means that the breakout below that Trading Range
ZH: 也就是说，向下的跌破通常不会持续很多K线， 比如只持续1到5根K线
40:31 - 40:35
EN: usually does not last long – 1 bar, 5 bars
ZH: 也就是说，向下的跌破通常不会持续很多K线， 比如只持续1到5根K线
40:35 - 40:38
EN: - and then it reverses, and the market then enters a Trading Range.
ZH: 然后很快反转上涨，市场于是进入震荡区间
40:45 - 40:48
EN: At some point in here, you have to conclude the market
ZH: 在这里的某个时刻，你必须做出判断
40:48 - 40:52
EN: is in a Trading Range and no longer in a bear trend,
ZH: 市场现在处于震荡区间，不再是下降趋势
40:52 - 40:55
EN: and therefore you have to trade it like a Trading Range.
ZH: 因此你必须按照震荡区间的方式去交易
40:55 - 40:59
EN: You have to be looking to buy low, sell high, and scalp.
ZH: 你必须低买、高卖，做剥头皮交易
41:00 - 41:03
EN: Through here, the probability of lower prices was 60%.
ZH: 在这里，继续下跌的概率是60%
41:03 - 41:05
EN: 60%.
ZH: 60%
41:05 - 41:09
EN: But once you start to go sideways, that’s not the case anymore.
ZH: 然而一旦开始横盘，概率就变化了
41:09 - 41:15
EN: 50% chance we’ll get a bear breakout, 50% chance we’ll get a bull reversal.
ZH: 50%的概率会向下跌破，50%的概率会向上突破
41:15 - 41:18
EN: And at this point we do not know which will happen.
ZH: 此时我们并不知道最终谁能获胜
41:19 - 41:23
EN: We have a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal, but for the bears,
ZH: 多头得到了低点抬高的大反转结构， 但对于空头而言，
41:23 - 41:26
EN: they’re hoping it’s simply now a broader bear channel.
ZH: 他们希望这可能是一个更宽的下降通道
41:26 - 41:29
EN: Deeper pullbacks but continuing down.
ZH: 有更深的反弹，但最终会继续下跌
41:29 - 41:29
EN: We don’t know.
ZH: 目前并不知道
41:29 - 41:33
EN: 50/50 chance it’ll go up, 50/50 chance it’ll continue down.
ZH: 50%的概率会上涨，50%的概率会继续下跌
Slide 019
Time: 41:40
Bilingual Transcript
41:47 - 41:52
EN: Even a very Tight Bear Channel eventually is going
ZH: 即使是非常窄的下降通道，最终也会演变成震荡区间
41:50 - 41:52
EN: to evolve into a Trading Range.
ZH: 即使是非常窄的下降通道，最终也会演变成震荡区间
41:53 - 41:57
EN: 75% of all channels have a bull breakout,
ZH: 下降通道75%的概率会向上突破
41:57 - 41:59
EN: and the market then becomes a Trading Range.
ZH: 然后市场进入震荡区间
42:00 - 42:04
EN: Only 25% of bear channels have successful bear breakouts
ZH: 只有25%的概率能够加速向下跌破，
42:04 - 42:07
EN: and even stronger legs down.
ZH: 形成更强的下跌波段
42:07 - 42:10
EN: Here, we tried to get the strong bear breakout late in a bear channel.
ZH: 这里，空头尝试在下降通道的后期加速跌破
42:10 - 42:11
EN: It failed.
ZH: 失败了
42:11 - 42:14
EN: It only had a 25% chance of success.
ZH: 这种只有25%的概率能成功
42:14 - 42:20
EN: 75% chance it would reverse and become either a Trading Range or a bull trend.
ZH: 75%的概率会反转，变成震荡区间或上涨趋势
42:25 - 42:28
EN: As I mentioned a moment ago, sometimes you can get a very strong rally
ZH: 就像刚才讲的那样，有时会出现非常强势的反弹
42:28 - 42:32
EN: and the market becomes Always In Long, yet you can get a new low
ZH: 让市场暂时进入单边上涨； 但仍然可以跌到新的低点
42:32 - 42:35
EN: and then another strong rally and another new low.
ZH: 然后再次大幅反弹，又再次跌到新低
42:35 - 42:38
EN: Then you have a Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 那就变成了一个宽下降通道
42:39 - 42:44
EN: Even then, the odds are it’s going to eventually evolve into a Trading Range.
ZH: 即使是那样，最终它大概率还是会变成震荡区间
42:46 - 42:48
EN: Very Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 很窄的下降通道
42:51 - 42:56
EN: Still a Tight Bear Channel – this bear channel is within this bear channel.
ZH: 下降通道仍然很窄——这个小通道被包含在它的里面
42:57 - 42:59
EN: You can draw it this way,
ZH: 也可以这样画
42:59 - 43:02
EN: and it’s still a fairly Tight Bear Channel at this point.
ZH: 此时它仍然是一个窄下降通道
43:07 - 43:12
EN: I began by talking about different ways to get short
ZH: 这节课我先是讲解了在窄下降通道中， 不同的入场做空的方式
43:10 - 43:12
EN: when you have a Tight Bear Channel.
ZH: 这节课我先是讲解了在窄下降通道中， 不同的入场做空的方式
Slide 020
Time: 43:10
Bilingual Transcript
43:13 - 43:18
EN: I then talked about the importance of a stop location above a major Higher Low
ZH: 然后讲了为什么要把止损放在重要高点上方
43:18 - 43:23
EN: and the importance of taking profits, because all trends eventually end.
ZH: 也讲了止盈计划的重要性，因为所有的趋势最终都会结束
43:23 - 43:27
EN: They typically evolve into Trading Ranges, and you have to be taking profits
ZH: 它们往往会变成震荡区间，所以必须止盈
43:27 - 43:32
EN: because you don’t want to be trading the market like a trend
ZH: 既然不再是趋势了，就不应该再按照趋势的方法去交易
43:30 - 43:32
EN: when it’s no longer a trend.
ZH: 既然不再是趋势了，就不应该再按照趋势的方法去交易
43:32 - 43:35
EN: If you do, you will give back all of your profits.
ZH: 如果不做出变化，就会把所有利润还给市场
43:36 - 43:40
EN: Every channel, even a Tight Channel, eventually evolves into a Trading Range,
ZH: 所有通道，就算是窄通道，最终也都会变成震荡区间
43:40 - 43:44
EN: and therefore if you see signs that it’s evolving into a Trading Range,
ZH: 因此，如果你看到它演变成震荡区间的信号
43:44 - 43:49
EN: stop trading it like a bear trend and begin to trade it like a Trading Range.
ZH: 就不要再按照趋势的方法交易了， 而是开始按照震荡区间的方法来交易
43:53 - 43:54
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
43:54 - 43:56
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
43:56 - 44:00
EN: This is the fourth of four videos on trading Tight Bear Channels.
ZH: 如何交易窄下降通道的4节课，到这里就全部讲完了