al-brooks-course
48I - Trading the End of the Day
Raw transcript and slide notes for 48I - Trading the End of the Day.
Overview
- Slides: 9
- Transcript segments: 227
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
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Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
00:05 - 00:09
EN: This is the first of three videos on trading at the end of the day.
Slide 001
Time: 00:12
Bilingual Transcript
00:14 - 00:15
EN: When trading at the end of the day,
00:15 - 00:17
EN: traders should look for breakouts and Trading Ranges,
00:17 - 00:22
EN: and in general not channels, which usually require limit orders.
Slide 002
Time: 00:24
Bilingual Transcript
00:31 - 00:34
EN: When you’re trading the end of the day, you’re talking about the final hour,
00:34 - 00:39
EN: maybe the final 90 minutes, and you have very little time left to make money.
00:39 - 00:44
EN: The market at the end of the day is deciding if the price is too high,
00:44 - 00:47
EN: too low, or just about right for going into tomorrow.
00:51 - 00:55
EN: There’s sometimes some new information about tomorrow that comes in
00:55 - 00:59
EN: at the end of the day, and requires an adjustment of price before the close.
01:04 - 01:08
EN: Did the middle of the day go too far down, for example, as it did here?
01:08 - 01:12
EN: Will there be a reversal up at support, like at the low of the day?
01:12 - 01:14
EN: Will a bear trend resume?
01:14 - 01:15
EN: Let’s say we have a bear trend here,
01:15 - 01:17
EN: pullback, and trend resumption down.
01:18 - 01:20
EN: Will the market break out below major support?
01:20 - 01:22
EN: Here we’re at the bottom of a range.
01:22 - 01:25
EN: We have a Double Bottom, and the bears got a breakout.
01:29 - 01:31
EN: It’s not important to know the reasons
01:31 - 01:34
EN: why the market is doing whatever it’s doing.
01:34 - 01:37
EN: Do not turn on the television to find out the news.
01:37 - 01:40
EN: Simply trade what the market is telling you to do.
01:40 - 01:42
EN: If it’s going up, you look to buy.
01:42 - 01:44
EN: If it’s going down, you look to sell.
01:48 - 01:51
EN: The only important point is, can you structure a trade
01:51 - 01:54
EN: that has a reasonable chance of making money?
01:54 - 01:58
EN: You never need to know the reason why the market is doing what it’s doing,
01:58 - 02:01
EN: especially at the end of the day when you really do not have enough time
02:01 - 02:05
EN: to consider the news and decide whether it’s bullish or bearish.
02:05 - 02:07
EN: It’s tough enough to do that at any time during the day,
02:07 - 02:10
EN: but at the end of the day things happen fast,
02:10 - 02:12
EN: and you have to make quick decisions.
02:16 - 02:19
EN: All I care about when I’m trading at the end of the day,
02:19 - 02:22
EN: is whether or not the day is likely to be in a trend
02:22 - 02:26
EN: or in a Trading Range, and then I trade appropriately.
Slide 003
Time: 02:30
Bilingual Transcript
02:34 - 02:37
EN: Sometimes you’ll get a trend in the middle of the day
02:37 - 02:39
EN: that lasts until the end of the day.
02:39 - 02:42
EN: Here we have a bear trend beginning in the middle of the day
02:42 - 02:45
EN: - we have a Double Top – and here we have a reversal day.
02:45 - 02:48
EN: It sold off for the first half and rallied for the second half.
02:52 - 02:55
EN: I talk about how to trade this kind of a situation
02:55 - 02:58
EN: in the videos on trading in the middle of the day.
02:58 - 03:02
EN: If you have a trend lasting to the end of the day, you trade it like a trend.
03:02 - 03:05
EN: There is no clear end to the day here.
03:05 - 03:08
EN: The market traded down in a channel starting
03:08 - 03:10
EN: in the middle of the day, and there was no transition
03:10 - 03:13
EN: into some other type of trading at the end of the day.
03:13 - 03:16
EN: Here the same is true, but in the opposite direction.
03:16 - 03:19
EN: The market began to trend up in the middle of the day,
03:19 - 03:21
EN: and there was no transition at the end of the day,
03:21 - 03:25
EN: so you keep trading the way you were trading from the middle of the day.
03:30 - 03:33
EN: What I want to talk about here are opportunities
03:33 - 03:37
EN: that come in the final 30 to 60 minutes, and they happen just about every day.
03:42 - 03:45
EN: For example, the market’s in a Trading Range,
03:45 - 03:47
EN: and now we’re getting a bear breakout.
03:47 - 03:49
EN: Pair of bear bars, one of them pretty good size.
03:49 - 03:51
EN: Probably a Sell The Close finish.
03:54 - 03:57
EN: Here we have a reversal up in the final hour.
03:57 - 04:00
EN: We have a Double Bottom, a good bull bar, and a series of bull bars.
04:00 - 04:02
EN: This is a Buy The Close finish.
04:02 - 04:05
EN: When I’m looking for trends at the end of the day, I prefer to find trends
04:05 - 04:10
EN: that are strong, like a Buy The Close market or a Sell The Close market.
Slide 004
Time: 04:15
Bilingual Transcript
04:17 - 04:21
EN: If I’m trading, my risk is determined by how far my stop is.
04:25 - 04:29
EN: However, there’s an added risk at the end of the day, and that is time.
04:29 - 04:34
EN: Time becomes a risk factor, and that’s why it’s usually not good to be entering
04:34 - 04:38
EN: with limit orders, because in a limit order trade,
04:38 - 04:40
EN: you’re betting against the current trend.
04:40 - 04:41
EN: You’re betting on a reversal.
04:41 - 04:45
EN: That’s fine if you have time to scale in, which would increase the probability
04:45 - 04:49
EN: that you would make a profit; however, you may not have enough time
04:49 - 04:53
EN: for the reversal to take place, and therefore you run out of time,
04:53 - 04:58
EN: and you find yourself scaling into an ever-increasing losing position,
04:58 - 05:01
EN: and you end up with a big loss at the end of the day.
05:05 - 05:10
EN: Earlier in the day, you can scale in and use wide stops
05:10 - 05:11
EN: to increase the probability of making money.
05:11 - 05:15
EN: For example, you could be selling above highs and scaling in higher,
05:15 - 05:17
EN: knowing that there’s a lot of time left
05:17 - 05:19
EN: for the market to come down to your original entry.
05:19 - 05:23
EN: You can get out breakeven there, and with a profit on your higher entry.
05:23 - 05:26
EN: You cannot do that at the end of the day.
05:26 - 05:29
EN: For example, if you’re starting to sell as this is going up,
05:29 - 05:33
EN: you’ll run out of time and you’ll end up with a big loss at the end of the day.
05:40 - 05:44
EN: Because of that time factor, scaling in and entering with limit orders,
05:44 - 05:47
EN: betting on reversals, is a risky way to trade.
05:47 - 05:51
EN: If the market’s clearly in a Trading Range, you can do that,
05:51 - 05:55
EN: but in general it’s better either to be looking for a buy the market
05:55 - 06:00
EN: or sell the market trend – sell closes, buy closes – or looking for a pullback.
06:00 - 06:03
EN: For example, here, a pullback in a bull trend and you buy with a stop.
06:08 - 06:12
EN: If you’re buying with a limit order as the market’s going down,
06:12 - 06:15
EN: you’re betting on a reversal, and if you’re adding on,
06:15 - 06:19
EN: your risk is increasing and you’re running out of time.
06:19 - 06:20
EN: The opposite is true here.
06:20 - 06:23
EN: If you’re selling with a limit order at the end of the day,
06:23 - 06:24
EN: you’re betting on a reversal.
06:25 - 06:29
EN: Trends can last a lot longer than what you think is reasonable,
06:29 - 06:32
EN: and you can quickly run out of time at the end of the day.
Slide 005
Time: 06:35
Bilingual Transcript
06:40 - 06:43
EN: At any time, there’s either a trend or a Trading Range.
06:44 - 06:46
EN: Most traders prefer trend trading at the end of the day.
06:46 - 06:49
EN: Most traders prefer trend trading at any time during the day.
06:49 - 06:53
EN: The only decisions you have to make are management
06:53 - 06:55
EN: - where to take profits, where to put your stop.
07:00 - 07:03
EN: Trading Range requires a lot more decisions.
07:03 - 07:07
EN: You’re scalping repeatedly, and that means at the end of the day
07:07 - 07:09
EN: you’re making a lot of decisions.
07:09 - 07:12
EN: You have to decide to enter, exit, enter, exit, how to enter,
07:12 - 07:15
EN: how to exit, where your stops are, where to exit.
07:16 - 07:20
EN: At the end of the day you’re tired and you’re more prone to make mistakes.
07:26 - 07:29
EN: If you see the market going sideways in the final 30 minutes,
07:29 - 07:32
EN: chances are it’s going to go sideways for the remainder of the day,
07:32 - 07:34
EN: and most traders should not trade.
07:43 - 07:47
EN: Computers don’t get tired, and therefore they don’t care.
07:47 - 07:51
EN: They don’t care about making repeated decisions and repeatedly scalping.
07:51 - 07:55
EN: But that’s just not possible for most people, because we do get tired.
Slide 006
Time: 07:59
Bilingual Transcript
08:02 - 08:04
EN: Here’s a bull channel at the end of the day.
08:04 - 08:07
EN: It looks like a Buy The Close market here, which is good,
08:07 - 08:09
EN: but then you’re getting repeated pullbacks,
08:09 - 08:12
EN: and you’re constantly wondering if the market’s going to reverse.
08:12 - 08:16
EN: In general when there is a channel and you’re looking to buy,
08:16 - 08:19
EN: it’s better to be entering with limit orders, buying below bars.
08:19 - 08:23
EN: But then you’re betting that the reversal is going to be a bull flag,
08:23 - 08:27
EN: and the bull trend is going to resume, and that is not as certain
08:27 - 08:31
EN: at the end of the day, and you do not have time to use a wide stop and scale in.
08:37 - 08:40
EN: If the channel starts with more than 2 hours left in the day,
08:40 - 08:43
EN: then it’s a little bit easier to trade.
08:43 - 08:46
EN: It’s a little bit more certain that it will last until the end of the day.
08:47 - 08:50
EN: If it begins later in the day, there’s too much risk of it evolving
08:50 - 08:54
EN: into a Trading Range, especially if the pullbacks are deeper and more frequent.
08:58 - 09:01
EN: A Tight Bull Channel like this, especially in a day
09:01 - 09:06
EN: that was a bull trend earlier, it’s reasonable to buy and just hold.
09:06 - 09:07
EN: So it’s trend resumption up.
09:07 - 09:11
EN: Bull trend, Trading Range, and then trend resumption up.
09:20 - 09:23
EN: When you get a channel at the end of the day – for example,
09:23 - 09:27
EN: here in the final hour – there’s a greater risk of it becoming a Trading Range
09:27 - 09:31
EN: and you end up buying too high and then not making money.
09:32 - 09:33
EN: Bull bar, bear bar.
09:33 - 09:34
EN: Bull bar, bear bar.
09:34 - 09:35
EN: Bull bar, doji.
09:35 - 09:36
EN: Small bull bar, doji.
09:36 - 09:38
EN: This is dangerous.
09:38 - 09:41
EN: It’s channeling up, but at any point it could convert
09:41 - 09:43
EN: into a Trading Range, and you could end up having bought
09:43 - 09:46
EN: at the high of the channel at the end of the day.
09:52 - 09:55
EN: It’s fine to buy and use wide stops if you have enough time,
09:55 - 09:57
EN: especially if you can scale in.
09:57 - 10:00
EN: But you do not have time at the end of the day,
10:00 - 10:03
EN: and the result is you’re more likely to get a loss
10:03 - 10:06
EN: if you’re buying in a bull channel, or selling in a bear channel
10:06 - 10:08
EN: that’s starting in the final hour.
Slide 007
Time: 10:15
Bilingual Transcript
10:19 - 10:21
EN: The market’s in pretty much Trading Range,
10:21 - 10:23
EN: and then it’s starting to channel down at the end of the day.
10:23 - 10:27
EN: When it’s in a channel, it’s usually easier to make money with limit orders.
10:27 - 10:31
EN: When a channel begins in the final hour, it’s more difficult to make money
10:31 - 10:35
EN: because at any time it could reverse or enter a Trading Range.
10:41 - 10:44
EN: When a channel starts with more than a couple hours left in the day,
10:44 - 10:46
EN: you can continue to trade it like a channel.
10:46 - 10:50
EN: For example, you could just sell and hold for a swing
10:50 - 10:53
EN: until the close, or unless the market clearly reverses.
11:06 - 11:08
EN: Here at the end of the day, in the final hour,
11:08 - 11:10
EN: we’re getting a reversal down and a Tight Channel.
11:11 - 11:12
EN: Do you want to be selling that?
11:12 - 11:13
EN: I would not.
11:13 - 11:16
EN: If a channel is beginning in the final hour, I would just let it go.
11:17 - 11:19
EN: It’s just too easy to lose money.
11:19 - 11:22
EN: Too much risk of it evolving into a Trading Range or reversing.
11:27 - 11:31
EN: If you’re selling using wide stops, planning to scale in if it goes against you,
11:31 - 11:34
EN: you cannot do that because here it goes against you,
11:34 - 11:36
EN: there’s just a few bars left in the day,
11:36 - 11:38
EN: and it never goes back in your direction.
11:38 - 11:42
EN: So you end up scaling into a losing trade and you lose even more.
Slide 008
Time: 11:50
Bilingual Transcript
11:50 - 11:52
EN: A little bit of a Buy The Close bull trend.
11:52 - 11:56
EN: 4 bars closing on their highs, and then again more here.
11:56 - 12:01
EN: Traders can buy the market and decide whether to swing or scalp.
12:06 - 12:08
EN: Here we have a Sell The Close bear trend.
12:08 - 12:11
EN: After 3 or 4 bear bars, the odds are we’re going lower.
12:12 - 12:14
EN: However, it’s starting around 11:00.
12:14 - 12:16
EN: You have 2 hours left on the day.
12:16 - 12:20
EN: It’s probably not going to remain a Sell The Close bear trend
12:20 - 12:21
EN: until the end of the day.
12:21 - 12:23
EN: That means it’s either going to convert
12:23 - 12:26
EN: into a Trading Range, or into a broader channel.
12:26 - 12:31
EN: Whenever you see a Sell The Close trade like this – here, 5, 6, 7 bars,
12:31 - 12:34
EN: all bear bars; it’s a Sell The Close bear trend,
12:34 - 12:37
EN: but it’s starting with 2 hours left in the day
12:37 - 12:40
EN: - you have to assume it’s not going to make it to the end of the day.
12:40 - 12:43
EN: It’s either going to reverse or enter a Trading Range.
12:47 - 12:51
EN: You can see here, it evolved into a Trading Range, a limit order market.
12:52 - 12:55
EN: It’s important to pay attention to when a Buy The Close
12:55 - 12:57
EN: or Sell The Close trend begins.
12:57 - 12:59
EN: If it begins too early, like 2 hours before,
12:59 - 13:02
EN: it usually will not make it to the end of the day.
13:02 - 13:05
EN: If it begins in the final hour, you have a reasonable chance of it
13:05 - 13:07
EN: making it to the end of the day.
13:11 - 13:14
EN: Here we have a Buy The Close bull trend with 2 hours remaining in the day.
13:14 - 13:16
EN: It’s probably not going to continue up
13:16 - 13:19
EN: in a Buy The Close bull trend until the end of the day.
13:19 - 13:23
EN: It’s too climactic, too extreme, and there’s too much time left.
13:28 - 13:32
EN: It reversed into a bear channel and then a Trading Range at the end of the day.
13:36 - 13:38
EN: We have a bear trend, and then we started to get
13:38 - 13:41
EN: a lot of small doji bars that were going sideways.
13:41 - 13:44
EN: It evolved into a limit order market,
13:44 - 13:46
EN: a Tight Trading Range, at the end of the day.
13:46 - 13:48
EN: Traders should not be trading when the market
13:48 - 13:50
EN: is starting to do this late in the day.
13:56 - 13:59
EN: Is it possible to make money trading in a range that’s that tight?
13:59 - 14:02
EN: When it’s this tight, you’re not going to make money.
14:02 - 14:05
EN: You’ll win on some trades, you’ll lose on others,
14:05 - 14:08
EN: and you’ll probably make mistakes, especially at the end of the day.
14:09 - 14:11
EN: When the market enters a tight range at the end of the day,
14:12 - 14:14
EN: or if it’s any kind of a limit order market,
14:14 - 14:16
EN: a Trading Range at the end of the day or channel
14:16 - 14:19
EN: at the end of the day, it’s usually better not to trade.
Slide 009
Time: 14:24
Bilingual Transcript
14:25 - 14:28
EN: I talked about at the end of the day, the final hour or so,
14:28 - 14:30
EN: traders should be looking for breakouts,
14:30 - 14:34
EN: and sometimes if the range is broad enough, they can trade Trading Ranges.
14:34 - 14:36
EN: They should be looking to enter with stops
14:36 - 14:40
EN: - for example, reversals in a Trading Range or pullbacks in a trend
14:40 - 14:43
EN: - or on the close of bars if you have a Buy The Close finish
14:43 - 14:45
EN: or a Sell The Close finish.
14:45 - 14:50
EN: If you see a Buy The Close rally or a Sell The Close bear trend forming
14:50 - 14:52
EN: at the end of the day and there’s much more
14:52 - 14:56
EN: than 30 minutes left to the day, certainly more than an hour,
14:56 - 14:59
EN: you have to assume it’s not going to last until the end of the day.
15:03 - 15:04
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
15:04 - 15:06
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
15:06 - 15:10
EN: This is the first of three videos about trading at the end of the day.