al-brooks-course
47D - Trading in Trading Ranges
Raw transcript and slide notes for 47D - Trading in Trading Ranges.
Overview
- Slides: 19
- Transcript segments: 482
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:10
EN: This is the fourth of four videos on trading in Trading Ranges.
ZH: 这是如何交易震荡区间的第4节课（共4节）
Slide 001
Time: 00:12
Bilingual Transcript
00:13 - 00:22
EN: I’m going to begin by talking about how more experienced traders will enter
ZH: 首先我会讲经验丰富的交易者是如何使用限价单入场的， 以及每个交易者应该如何止盈
00:18 - 00:22
EN: with limit orders, how everyone should take profits.
ZH: 首先我会讲经验丰富的交易者是如何使用限价单入场的， 以及每个交易者应该如何止盈
00:23 - 00:26
EN: Trading Ranges often test the open of the day later in the day.
ZH: 震荡区间日经常会在当天晚些时候测试开盘价
00:26 - 00:28
EN: I want to talk about those tests.
ZH: 我想讲一讲那些对开盘价的测试
00:28 - 00:31
EN: Trading Ranges are often very tight.
ZH: 很多震荡区间都很窄
00:31 - 00:34
EN: Most traders should not trade when the market is in a very tight range,
ZH: 大部分交易者不应该在很窄的震荡区间里交易
00:34 - 00:38
EN: but experienced traders often will enter with limit orders and scalp.
ZH: 但经验丰富的交易员通常会用限价单剥头皮
00:38 - 00:43
EN: Every Trading Range eventually ends and breaks into a trend.
ZH: 每个震荡区间最终都会结束，并突破进入趋势
Slide 002
Time: 00:44
Bilingual Transcript
00:51 - 00:55
EN: In general, in a Trading Range you want to buy low, sell high, and scalp.
ZH: 通常来说，在震荡区间里，你要低买、高卖，做剥头皮交易
00:55 - 00:59
EN: Bulls are going to be looking for buy setups in the lower half
ZH: 多头会在下半部分寻找做多机会
00:59 - 01:01
EN: and bears will look to sell in the upper half.
ZH: 而空头会在上半部分寻找做空机会
01:04 - 01:08
EN: One popular way for traders to trade is enter with limit orders.
ZH: 一种普遍的入场方法是使用限价单
01:08 - 01:17
EN: When the market is in the lower half, they’ll buy with limit orders
ZH: 当市场跌到下半部分，交易者在前期低点挂限价买单， 并且他们愿意在下方加仓，做剥头皮交易
01:12 - 01:17
EN: at a prior low and they’re willing to scale in lower, and then they’ll scalp.
ZH: 当市场跌到下半部分，交易者在前期低点挂限价买单， 并且他们愿意在下方加仓，做剥头皮交易
01:17 - 01:18
EN: Here’s another prior low.
ZH: 还有这个前期低点
01:18 - 01:22
EN: They’ll buy with a limit order there, and here is a low
ZH: 他们会在这里挂限价买单； 还有这个低点
01:22 - 01:25
EN: - a minor low, but traders bought with a limit order there,
ZH: 它不太重要，但多头会在这里用限价单买入
01:25 - 01:30
EN: especially since it’s a potential Micro Double Bottom
ZH: 尤其这里是一个潜在的小双底，处于震荡区间的下半部分
01:28 - 01:30
EN: in the bottom half of a Trading Range.
ZH: 尤其这里是一个潜在的小双底，处于震荡区间的下半部分
01:35 - 01:42
EN: Unfortunately sometimes the stop is far away,
ZH: 你必须选择合理的止损位置，尽管有时候这个止损很远
01:39 - 01:42
EN: but you have to use a stop that is reasonable.
ZH: 你必须选择合理的止损位置，尽管有时候这个止损很远
01:45 - 01:50
EN: For example, putting a stop below the bottom
ZH: 例如，把止损放在这个三段上涨的起涨点下方是合理的
01:47 - 01:50
EN: of this three-legged rally is a reasonable stop,
ZH: 例如，把止损放在这个三段上涨的起涨点下方是合理的
01:50 - 01:55
EN: and if you get stopped out you can buy again on a reversal back up.
ZH: 如果被止损了，可以在恢复上涨时再次买入
01:58 - 02:03
EN: Another alternative is we have a strong breakout here and we reversed down.
ZH: 另一个选择是：这里的突破很强势，然后回调
02:03 - 02:06
EN: Theoretically the bulls wanted to get a Double Bottom here,
ZH: 理论上，多头希望在这里形成双底
02:06 - 02:09
EN: and instead the market’s selling off.
ZH: 但价格却继续下跌
02:09 - 02:13
EN: The bears want to get a Measured Move down, and therefore putting a stop
ZH: 空头想要让价格跌到反向的MM目标位
02:13 - 02:17
EN: just below a Measured Move down is another logical stop.
ZH: 所以多头把止损放在MM目标位下方也是合理的
Slide 003
Time: 02:20
Bilingual Transcript
02:25 - 02:29
EN: Some bulls will buy, rely on the wide stop and buy more lower,
ZH: 一些多头买入之后，会依赖较大的止损并在下方加仓
02:29 - 02:32
EN: hoping to get a test back up near the top of the range.
ZH: 押注价格会涨回到区间顶部附近
02:33 - 02:36
EN: If you are going to be entering with limit orders and scaling in,
ZH: 如果打算用限价单入场并加仓
02:36 - 02:40
EN: you have to trade smaller because you want to maintain your risk.
ZH: 你就必须用小仓位交易，这样才能控制风险
02:40 - 02:43
EN: You don’t want the risk on any trade to be bigger than on any other trade.
ZH: 这笔交易的风险不应该比平时其他交易更大
02:44 - 02:50
EN: The reason why traders scale in is because it makes it
ZH: 交易员加仓的目的是让赚钱的概率提高
02:48 - 02:50
EN: more likely that they can make money.
ZH: 交易员加仓的目的是让赚钱的概率提高
02:50 - 02:54
EN: However, it requires a wide stop and it requires management.
ZH: 然而，承担的风险更大，而且需要优秀的管理能力
02:55 - 02:59
EN: Both of those things can create anxiety when a trader is starting out.
ZH: 这两件事情新手交易者往往很难做到
02:59 - 03:05
EN: This is the kind of trade that only an experienced,
ZH: 只有经验丰富的、已经稳定盈利的交易者才能考虑这样做
03:02 - 03:05
EN: consistently profitable trader should consider.
ZH: 只有经验丰富的、已经稳定盈利的交易者才能考虑这样做
03:09 - 03:13
EN: Whenever you increase your position size, you increase your risk.
ZH: 每当你加仓的时候，风险也增加了
03:14 - 03:19
EN: However, you should always trade small enough
ZH: 所以你的仓位必须足够小， 保证这笔交易的风险不会超过平时其它的交易
03:16 - 03:19
EN: so that your risk is no bigger than on any other trade.
ZH: 所以你的仓位必须足够小， 保证这笔交易的风险不会超过平时其它的交易
03:23 - 03:26
EN: The minimum scalp in the Emini is 1 point.
ZH: ES最小的剥头皮目标是1个点
03:26 - 03:33
EN: If you’re looking to scale in, you usually want to be scaling in
ZH: 如果你想要加仓，加仓的位置最好距离初始入场价格1~2个点
03:30 - 03:33
EN: at least 1 or 2 points below your original entry.
ZH: 如果你想要加仓，加仓的位置最好距离初始入场价格1~2个点
03:37 - 03:40
EN: An alternative to buying 1 point below is buying
ZH: 除了在下方1个点挂限价买单之外，
03:40 - 03:44
EN: with a limit order at a prior low as long as the second entry
ZH: 也可以把限价买单挂在另一个前期低点的下方
03:44 - 03:48
EN: is at least as big as a scalp below the first.
ZH: 只要两次入场价格相差至少1个点就可以了
03:49 - 03:51
EN: In the Emini, the minimum scalp is 1 point,
ZH: 在ES中，剥头皮的最小目标是1个点
03:51 - 03:59
EN: and therefore if you do not take this second entry 1 point down
ZH: 所以，如果不在下面1个点的地方加仓， 而是选择在另一个前期低点挂单的话
03:55 - 03:59
EN: from the first and instead you look to buy at a prior low,
ZH: 所以，如果不在下面1个点的地方加仓， 而是选择在另一个前期低点挂单的话
03:59 - 04:04
EN: you make sure that the second entry is at least the size
ZH: 要确保它比初始入场价格至少低1个点
04:02 - 04:04
EN: of a scalp below the first entry.
ZH: 要确保它比初始入场价格至少低1个点
04:09 - 04:12
EN: An alternative is you could buy a reversal up above a bull bar.
ZH: 另一种选择是，你可以在一根反转上涨的阳线上方买入
04:12 - 04:16
EN: This is a small bull bar, and it’s also a second entry.
ZH: 比如这根阳线——它的上方也是第2做多入场点
04:16 - 04:22
EN: First entry above this bar and then second entry here.
ZH: 第1入场点在它的上方，这里是第2入场点—— 它的胜率更高一些
04:19 - 04:22
EN: That’s a higher probability buy.
ZH: 第1入场点在它的上方，这里是第2入场点—— 它的胜率更高一些
04:22 - 04:27
EN: Is it less than a point below the first? It can be,
ZH: 它距离初始入场价格有1个点吗？好像有
04:27 - 04:30
EN: and some traders will take it if they’re trading small enough.
ZH: 初始仓位很小的多头，会选择在这里加仓
04:30 - 04:32
EN: This is a high probability buy.
ZH: 这是一个高胜率的买点
04:32 - 04:38
EN: It’s a Wedge Bottom – reversal up, reversal up,
ZH: 有3推楔形底——上涨，上涨，上涨—— 而且是第3推的第2做多入场点
04:34 - 04:38
EN: reversal up – and it’s a second entry buy.
ZH: 有3推楔形底——上涨，上涨，上涨—— 而且是第3推的第2做多入场点
04:43 - 04:46
EN: Most traders will only add on to a trade once,
ZH: 大部分交易者只会加仓一次
04:46 - 04:50
EN: so they buy once and then they take one of these additional buys.
ZH: 一开始在这里买入，然后再买入一次
04:50 - 04:52
EN: So they’ll take two entries.
ZH: 总共买入两次
04:52 - 04:57
EN: Some traders will add on a second or third time, so they add on here
ZH: 一些交易者会加仓两次或三次，比如在这里加仓，
04:57 - 05:00
EN: and then again 1 point lower, again 1 point lower still.
ZH: 然后在下方1个点再次加仓，继续加仓
05:01 - 05:06
EN: If you’re taking multiple entries, always make sure
ZH: 如果你打算加仓好几次，那就必须要确保每次入场的仓位足够小
05:03 - 05:12
EN: that your entries are small enough so that the entire risk
ZH: 如果你打算加仓好几次，那就必须要确保每次入场的仓位足够小 确保这笔交易的风险不会大于平时其它的交易
05:07 - 05:12
EN: that you’re exposing yourself to is no greater than on any other trade.
ZH: 确保这笔交易的风险不会大于平时其它的交易
Slide 004
Time: 05:15
Bilingual Transcript
05:17 - 05:19
EN: I want to talk a little bit about taking profits.
ZH: 接下来我想讲一下止盈
Slide 005
Time: 05:20
Bilingual Transcript
05:26 - 05:32
EN: It’s always mathematically okay to exit any trade at two times your Actual Risk.
ZH: 任何交易，在两倍实际风险的地方止盈，在数学上都是合理的
05:34 - 05:41
EN: You want to make sure that the profit that you’re taking
ZH: 同时要保证利润不能小于剥头皮的最小目标
05:37 - 05:41
EN: is always at least as big as the minimum scalp size.
ZH: 同时要保证利润不能小于剥头皮的最小目标
05:42 - 05:46
EN: So if two times your Actual Risk is less than 1 point in the Emini,
ZH: 比如在ES中，如果两倍实际风险小于1个点，
05:47 - 05:49
EN: do not exit at two times Actual Risk.
ZH: 那就不能在那里止盈
05:49 - 05:52
EN: Make sure to exit at least at 1 point profit.
ZH: 至少要追求1个点的利润
05:57 - 06:02
EN: Two times Actual Risk is the minimum needed
ZH: 两倍实际盈亏比可以使数学期望为正
06:00 - 06:02
EN: to make a Trader’s Equation profitable,
ZH: 两倍实际盈亏比可以使数学期望为正
06:03 - 06:11
EN: but just because it’s the minimum acceptable
ZH: 仅仅满足了交易在数学上的最低要求， 并不代表它就是最优选项
06:06 - 06:11
EN: to have a mathematically valid approach to trading,
ZH: 仅仅满足了交易在数学上的最低要求， 并不代表它就是最优选项
06:09 - 06:11
EN: does not mean it’s the optimum.
ZH: 仅仅满足了交易在数学上的最低要求， 并不代表它就是最优选项
06:11 - 06:15
EN: The minimum is rarely the best choice for anything in life.
ZH: 任何事情，追求最低目标往往都不是最好的选择
06:15 - 06:18
EN: Working at the minimum wage is not a good choice.
ZH: 996拿最低工资不是一个好的工作选择
06:23 - 06:25
EN: Let’s say you bought above this reversal bar.
ZH: 假设你在这根反转阳线上方买入
06:25 - 06:27
EN: We got a small Wedge – one, two, three.
ZH: 这里有一个小楔形——1，2，3
06:27 - 06:30
EN: Bigger Wedge – one, two, three.
ZH: 更大的楔形——1，2，3
06:30 - 06:31
EN: A Micro Double Bottom.
ZH: 小双底
06:31 - 06:32
EN: We have a bull body.
ZH: 有一根阳线十字星
06:32 - 06:34
EN: That’s a pretty good entry.
ZH: 这个买点非常不错
06:34 - 06:40
EN: If you bought above this bar, at this point you know
ZH: 你在它的上方买入，涨到这里之后， 你知道你的实际风险就是到这根K线的低点下方1个tick
06:37 - 06:40
EN: that your Actual Risk was 1 tick below this bar.
ZH: 你在它的上方买入，涨到这里之后， 你知道你的实际风险就是到这根K线的低点下方1个tick
06:41 - 06:44
EN: Therefore, one times Actual Risk is right there.
ZH: 一倍实际风险在这里
06:45 - 06:48
EN: However, it did not reach your original entry.
ZH: 但是价格还没有涨回到初始的买入价格
06:48 - 06:55
EN: Just because it’s a high probability trade and exiting at one times Actual Risk
ZH: 在这里买入做多的胜率很高， 所以在一倍实际风险的地方止盈是合理的
06:53 - 06:57
EN: is a reasonable thing to do, does not mean it’s the best thing to do.
ZH: 在这里买入做多的胜率很高， 所以在一倍实际风险的地方止盈是合理的 但并不意味着这就是最好的选择
06:58 - 07:05
EN: Remember, when you’re scaling in, you usually want to exit
ZH: 记住，当你加仓的时候， 通常至少要在初始买入价格，或更高的价格离场
07:02 - 07:05
EN: at least at your original entry price or higher.
ZH: 记住，当你加仓的时候， 通常至少要在初始买入价格，或更高的价格离场
07:05 - 07:09
EN: That way you get out breakeven on your first buy
ZH: 那样的话，你的初始仓位打平，加仓的部分赚钱
07:07 - 07:09
EN: and then with a profit on your second buy.
ZH: 那样的话，你的初始仓位打平，加仓的部分赚钱
07:15 - 07:21
EN: So a trader who did buy more here could get out there
ZH: 所以，在这里加仓的多头，可以在初始入场价格平仓，就在那个低点
07:19 - 07:21
EN: at his original entry price, at that low.
ZH: 所以，在这里加仓的多头，可以在初始入场价格平仓，就在那个低点
07:21 - 07:23
EN: He bought at that low.
ZH: 他之前在那个低点挂单买入
07:23 - 07:25
EN: It’s back 1 tick above that low.
ZH: 现在价格反弹到低点上方1个tick
07:25 - 07:28
EN: That would allow him to get out breakeven on his first entry
ZH: 使得初始仓位可以打平离场，
07:28 - 07:30
EN: and with a profit on his second entry.
ZH: 加仓的部分能赚钱
07:31 - 07:35
EN: It’s a high probability buy since it’s a second entry buy
ZH: 这是一个高胜率的买点，因为它是第2入场点， 而且是楔形底——嵌套式楔形
07:34 - 07:35
EN: and a Wedge, nested Wedge.
ZH: 这是一个高胜率的买点，因为它是第2入场点， 而且是楔形底——嵌套式楔形
07:36 - 07:40
EN: Exiting greater than one times Actual Risk is mathematically good,
ZH: 在超过1倍实际风险的地方离场，在数学上合理
07:40 - 07:43
EN: so this is a reasonable thing to do.
ZH: 所以可以这么做
07:48 - 07:50
EN: Look at the size of the legs up and down.
ZH: 观察左边上涨和下跌的幅度
07:50 - 07:51
EN: The swings are pretty big.
ZH: 波段相当大
07:52 - 07:57
EN: Therefore, exiting with 1 point profit is not necessarily the best choice.
ZH: 因此，只赚一个点就离场不一定是最好的选择
07:57 - 08:00
EN: Another alternative is to enter with two times Actual Risk.
ZH: 可以在两倍实际风险处止盈
08:00 - 08:02
EN: That’s always a good decision.
ZH: 那永远都是一个好的决定
08:05 - 08:09
EN: It’s still relatively small given the size of these legs up and down.
ZH: 和左边波段的高度相比，两倍实际风险还是相对小了一点
Slide 006
Time: 08:05
Bilingual Transcript
08:15 - 08:21
EN: Another choice is a trader might exit
ZH: 还有一个选择：根据初始仓位的实际风险大小来止盈
08:18 - 08:21
EN: at one times Actual Risk based upon his first buy.
ZH: 还有一个选择：根据初始仓位的实际风险大小来止盈
08:21 - 08:23
EN: He buys here.
ZH: 他在这里买入
08:23 - 08:24
EN: The market went down here.
ZH: 市场最多跌到这里
08:24 - 08:30
EN: Once it reverses up, he knows that he actually had to risk
ZH: 一旦反转上涨，他就知道这笔交易实际上承担的风险就是到这根K线最低点下方1个tick
08:28 - 08:30
EN: to 1 tick below the low of this bar.
ZH: 一旦反转上涨，他就知道这笔交易实际上承担的风险就是到这根K线最低点下方1个tick
08:31 - 08:35
EN: A Measured Move up from the low of that bar to his entry price is there,
ZH: 从最低点到入场价格，往上翻一倍
08:35 - 08:38
EN: and you can see there was some profit-taking there.
ZH: 可以看到，在那里有一些多头卖出止盈
08:44 - 08:47
EN: If you want, you can try holding for two times Actual Risk,
ZH: 你也可以继续持有，尝试在两倍实际风险处止盈
08:47 - 08:50
EN: which is also at the top of the most recent leg down.
ZH: 正好也是左边下跌波段的起跌点
08:51 - 08:56
EN: Since the market keeps reversing at new highs, that is a logical place to sell.
ZH: 由于市场不断地在创新高后反转下跌， 所以在这里卖出止盈是合理的
08:56 - 09:03
EN: Bears will start selling there, so bulls should be taking
ZH: 空头会在那里开始做空，所以多头也应该止盈部分或全部仓位
08:59 - 09:03
EN: partial profits there – partial or full profits.
ZH: 空头会在那里开始做空，所以多头也应该止盈部分或全部仓位
Slide 007
Time: 09:05
Bilingual Transcript
09:06 - 09:10
EN: Is it a scalp if you get out up here? No, it’s a swing trade.
ZH: 持有到这里才离场，是剥头皮交易吗？ 不，这是波段交易
09:10 - 09:12
EN: It’s 4 points.
ZH: 赚了4个点
09:12 - 09:15
EN: You sat through pullbacks here and here.
ZH: 你在这里和这里的回调中坚定持有
09:15 - 09:16
EN: It lasted about 10 bars.
ZH: 这笔交易持续了大约10根K线
09:16 - 09:20
EN: If you want, you can call it a scalp, but I would call that a swing.
ZH: 你一定要说它是剥头皮的话也可以， 但我认为这是一笔波段交易
09:20 - 09:23
EN: You put it on as a scalp; it went up strongly enough,
ZH: 最开始的目的是做一笔剥头皮交易； 但上涨足够强势
09:23 - 09:29
EN: some traders will hold part of their trade all the way up
ZH: 一些交易者会继续持有部分仓位，直到市场开始反转下跌；
09:26 - 09:34
EN: until the market reversed and it went up far enough to call it a swing,
ZH: 一些交易者会继续持有部分仓位，直到市场开始反转下跌； 上涨幅度足够大，可以说它是波段交易， 尽管一开始是想做一笔剥头皮交易
09:31 - 09:34
EN: even though you took it initially as a scalp.
ZH: 上涨幅度足够大，可以说它是波段交易， 尽管一开始是想做一笔剥头皮交易
Slide 008
Time: 09:40
Bilingual Transcript
09:44 - 09:52
EN: When the legs up and down are big like this, lasting 10, 20,
ZH: 上涨和下跌的波段这么大， 持续10、20、30根K线，涨跌幅度是好几个点，
09:49 - 09:52
EN: or 30 bars up and down, covering a lot of points,
ZH: 上涨和下跌的波段这么大， 持续10、20、30根K线，涨跌幅度是好几个点，
09:53 - 09:56
EN: traders can swing part of their position or all of their position
ZH: 交易者可以继续持有部分或全部头寸，
09:56 - 10:00
EN: because there’s enough profit for them to make a swing up.
ZH: 因为有足够大的空间做波段交易
10:06 - 10:10
EN: At this point we have 9 bars in a very Tight Bull Channel with no bear bars.
ZH: 到这里，非常窄的上涨通道已经持续了9根K线，途中没有阴线
10:10 - 10:16
EN: The odds are traders will buy the first bear bar
ZH: 在第1次下跌、第1根阴线收盘的时候， 大概率会有很多人买入，使得价格继续上涨
10:13 - 10:16
EN: and the first reversal down and the market will go higher.
ZH: 在第1次下跌、第1根阴线收盘的时候， 大概率会有很多人买入，使得价格继续上涨
10:16 - 10:21
EN: The market’s clearly Always In Long somewhere in here
ZH: 在看到连续9根阳线之前，在这里某个地方， 就已经很明显是单边上涨了
10:19 - 10:21
EN: before you get to 9 bull bars.
ZH: 在看到连续9根阳线之前，在这里某个地方， 就已经很明显是单边上涨了
10:21 - 10:23
EN: That means the market is likely to go higher.
ZH: 也就是说很大的概率会继续上涨
10:27 - 10:31
EN: Since the market has been mostly sideways, it’s also in a Broad Bull Channel;
ZH: 市场主要是在横盘，同时也处于宽上涨通道中
10:31 - 10:35
EN: we have a Higher High and we have Higher Low.
ZH: 高点抬高，低点也抬高
10:36 - 10:42
EN: Traders like to take profits at a prior high,
ZH: 不管是震荡区间还是宽上涨通道， 多头都喜欢在前期高点止盈
10:39 - 10:42
EN: whether it’s a Trading Range or a Broad Bull Channel.
ZH: 不管是震荡区间还是宽上涨通道， 多头都喜欢在前期高点止盈
10:45 - 10:50
EN: In this case it’s also an Expanding Triangle and a Micro Double Top.
ZH: 这里它也是一个扩张三角形，而且有小双顶
10:50 - 10:53
EN: That increases the chances that we’ll get a deep pullback,
ZH: 那增加了深度回调的可能性
10:53 - 10:56
EN: and therefore if you’re trading in a Trading Range,
ZH: 因此，如果你在震荡区间中交易的话，
10:56 - 10:58
EN: you want to make sure that you’re exiting.
ZH: 一定要在这种地方止盈离场
10:58 - 11:02
EN: You want to sell high to take profits on the longs,
ZH: 多头在高位卖出，保护自己的利润
11:02 - 11:05
EN: and bears will sell high looking for a trade down.
ZH: 空头在高位做空，押注价格反转下跌
11:09 - 11:12
EN: Three pushes up – one, pullback, two, pullback, three
ZH: 3次向上的推动——1，回调；2，回调；3
11:13 - 11:16
EN: - and therefore it’s also a Wedge channel,
ZH: 所以这也是一个楔形通道
11:16 - 11:18
EN: even though it does not have a Wedge shape.
ZH: 尽管它没有标准的楔形形状
11:18 - 11:20
EN: That is another reason to take profits up there.
ZH: 那是另一个在这里止盈的原因
11:26 - 11:28
EN: A bear bar closing on its low.
ZH: 一根阴线收在最低
11:28 - 11:31
EN: If you did not take profits with a limit order there,
ZH: 如果你没有在前期高点挂限价卖单止盈
11:31 - 11:36
EN: it’s reasonable to take profits with a stop 1 tick below that bear inside bar.
ZH: 在那根阴线下方1个tick挂突破卖单止盈离场是合理的
11:37 - 11:39
EN: Bears will start to sell there.
ZH: 空头会在那里入场做空
11:44 - 11:48
EN: Trading Range days often test the open of the day late in the day,
ZH: 震荡区间日经常会在当天晚些时候测试开盘价——
Slide 009
Time: 11:45
Bilingual Transcript
11:48 - 11:52
EN: after 11:00, the final couple of hours – especially if the open
ZH: 在两点以后，最后的两个小时 （注：美东时间下午两点，美西时间上午11点）
11:52 - 11:54
EN: of the day is in the middle third of the day.
ZH: 尤其如果开盘价处于震荡区间中间三分之一的时候
Slide 010
Time: 11:55
Bilingual Transcript
12:00 - 12:01
EN: Here’s the daily chart.
ZH: 这是一张日K线图
12:02 - 12:06
EN: You can see it’s sideways with lots of reversals every 2, 3, 4 bars,
ZH: 市场在横盘，每两三根K线就反转
12:06 - 12:08
EN: and a lot of bars close near the open.
ZH: 其中很多K线都在开盘价附近收盘（注：即十字星）
12:08 - 12:11
EN: All of these pink boxes highlight bars that are closing near the open.
ZH: 所有粉色标记出来的K线，都在开盘价附近收盘
12:12 - 12:15
EN: When the daily chart is in a Trading Range,
ZH: 当日K线处于震荡区间的时候
12:15 - 12:19
EN: the 5-minute chart will have a lot of Trading Range price action.
ZH: 日内的5分钟图里也会有很多震荡区间的价格行为
12:19 - 12:21
EN: There’ll be some trend days, like here,
ZH: 也会有一些趋势日，比如这一天
12:21 - 12:24
EN: but they’ll usually reverse within a day or two.
ZH: 但它们通常会在一两天之内反转
12:27 - 12:30
EN: This is a 5-minute daily chart.
ZH: 这是一张日内的5分钟K线图
12:30 - 12:32
EN: Strong leg up, but strong leg down.
ZH: 强势的上涨波段，但是又大幅下跌
12:32 - 12:34
EN: Strong leg up, strong leg down.
ZH: 大幅上涨，大幅下跌
12:39 - 12:43
EN: When the market is near the high late in the day,
ZH: 如果尾盘的时候，价格接近当天的最高点
12:43 - 12:48
EN: you have to be prepared to sell because a lot of times it’ll try
ZH: 你要准备好做空，因为很多时候市场会一路下跌，测试开盘价
12:46 - 12:48
EN: to get all the way back down to the open.
ZH: 你要准备好做空，因为很多时候市场会一路下跌，测试开盘价
12:48 - 12:51
EN: Look at all of these days that are highlighted in pink.
ZH: 看看所有这些用粉色标记出来的日子
12:52 - 12:55
EN: At least half of the days ended up closing near the open.
ZH: 至少有一半的天数，最终在开盘价附近收盘
12:55 - 12:58
EN: That means that if the market is far above the open,
ZH: 这意味着，如果在尾盘价格远高于开盘价
12:58 - 13:00
EN: you have to expect a reversal down.
ZH: 很有可能会反转下跌
13:00 - 13:02
EN: If it’s far below the open late in the day,
ZH: 如果在尾盘价格远低于开盘价
13:02 - 13:04
EN: you have to be looking for a reversal up.
ZH: 很有可能会反转上涨
13:05 - 13:06
EN: Therefore if you have a second entry sell,
ZH: 因此，如果看到第2做空入场点
13:06 - 13:09
EN: especially with a decent sell signal bar,
ZH: 尤其是有不错的做空信号K线的话
13:09 - 13:13
EN: it’s a reasonable sell expecting the market to try to get down near the open,
ZH: 卖出做空是合理的，预期市场跌回到开盘价附近
13:13 - 13:17
EN: like it did during the majority of days over the past several weeks.
ZH: 就像过去几周里大部分的交易日那样
13:21 - 13:23
EN: The close just above the open.
ZH: 最后，收盘价只比开盘价高一点点
13:23 - 13:27
EN: That means the body is small, the tail on top is big on the daily chart.
ZH: 所以当天日K线的实体部分很小，上影线很长
13:27 - 13:33
EN: The result is this Trading Range day is another doji day on the daily chart,
ZH: 这个震荡区间日在日K线上，又是一个十字星
13:33 - 13:35
EN: like all of these days highlighted in pink.
ZH: 就像所有这些粉色的交易日一样
13:44 - 13:48
EN: I mentioned earlier that when you get a late reversal back toward the open,
ZH: 刚才提到，如果开盘价正好处于震荡区间的中间三分之一，
13:48 - 13:52
EN: it’s more common if the open is in the middle third of the day.
ZH: 那么尾盘反转回到开盘价的概率就会更高
13:52 - 13:55
EN: You can see a lot of these days that are highlighted
ZH: 可以看到，很多粉色标记出来的交易日
13:55 - 13:59
EN: have a tail on top and on the bottom, but a small body,
ZH: 都有较长的上、下影线，实体部分很小
13:59 - 14:01
EN: and the body is in the middle third of the day.
ZH: 实体部分处于整根K线的中间三分之一
Slide 011
Time: 14:04
Bilingual Transcript
14:06 - 14:08
EN: Several days, 5-minute chart.
ZH: 这里是好几天的5分钟K线
14:08 - 14:11
EN: I want to make the point that if you’re trading with limit orders,
ZH: 我想强调一点：如果你用限价单交易——
14:11 - 14:15
EN: buying below things in the bottom half, selling above things like prior highs
ZH: 在下半部分逢低做多，在上半部分逢高做空
14:15 - 14:20
EN: in the top half, the market is very forgiving of limit order traders.
ZH: 市场是非常宽容的
14:20 - 14:23
EN: In other words, you usually can make a profit
ZH: 也就是说，你通常可以赚钱
14:23 - 14:26
EN: and you can almost always avoid a loss if you manage your trade correctly.
ZH: 如果正确管理的话，几乎可以完全避免亏损
14:32 - 14:40
EN: When I say manage your trade correctly, what I’m talking about is
ZH: “正确管理”的意思是：使用适当的宽止损，最好能够加仓
14:35 - 14:40
EN: if you can use an appropriately wide stop and especially if you can scale in.
ZH: “正确管理”的意思是：使用适当的宽止损，最好能够加仓
14:45 - 14:48
EN: Even if you sell the absolute low in a Trading Range,
ZH: 即使你正好做空在震荡区间的最低点
14:48 - 14:52
EN: if you manage your trade correctly, you usually can avoid a loss.
ZH: 如果正确地管理交易，通常也能够避免亏损
14:52 - 14:55
EN: When you look at this, you can say, “How can I possibly avoid losing
ZH: 如果你看这里，你可能会想： “要是在这里做空，怎么可能避免亏损？”
14:55 - 15:00
EN: if I sold here?” Well, if you manage your trade correctly, you usually can.
ZH: 如果你正确地管理这笔交易，是可以做到的
15:04 - 15:08
EN: You could sell more at about a 50% pullback of the last leg down
ZH: 你可以在50%反弹处加仓做空，
15:08 - 15:17
EN: or on a reversal down and then exit at the midpoint between your two sells.
ZH: 或者在反转下跌的时候加仓做空， 然后在两次入场价格的当中离场
15:17 - 15:20
EN: You sold here, you sold more here or here.
ZH: 一开始在这里做空，然后在这里或这里加仓
15:20 - 15:22
EN: This is your average entry price.
ZH: 你的平均入场价格在这里
15:22 - 15:26
EN: The market went below it, and therefore you could exit breakeven on the trade.
ZH: 市场跌破了平均价格，所以你可以成功地打平离场
15:26 - 15:30
EN: You lose some on this and you make the same amount on that,
ZH: 初始仓位亏了一些钱，但一部分把它赚回来了
15:30 - 15:38
EN: and you end up getting out without a loss – and that’s selling even
ZH: 最终成功地避免了亏损——尽管你做空在整个区间的最低点
15:34 - 15:38
EN: at the extreme lowest price of the entire Trading Range.
ZH: 最终成功地避免了亏损——尽管你做空在整个区间的最低点
15:42 - 15:45
EN: Even if you happen to buy the highest price,
ZH: 即使你不小心追涨在最高价
15:45 - 15:50
EN: you can usually avoid a loss if you scale in and use wide stops.
ZH: 正确地设置止损、正确地加仓，通常可以让你避免亏损
15:53 - 15:56
EN: For example, you could buy that high price
ZH: 例如，假设你在这里追涨了
15:56 - 16:00
EN: and then place a limit order to buy more at a 50% pullback
ZH: 然后在50%回调处挂限价买单加仓做多
16:00 - 16:05
EN: of this rally or on a reversal up, especially since it’s a High 2.
ZH: 或者在反转上涨时加仓做多——尤其是高2
16:05 - 16:08
EN: High 1, pullback, High 2, and a bull bar closing on its high.
ZH: 高1，反弹，高2，并且有阳线收在最高
16:12 - 16:16
EN: Strong enough rally so that we’re probably going to test this high.
ZH: 上涨足够强势，所以大概率会再次测试这个高点
16:16 - 16:19
EN: You could hold and try to get out breakeven at that high,
ZH: 你可以持有并争取在那个高点离场
16:20 - 16:25
EN: so you get out breakeven on your first buy right here
ZH: 这样的话，初始仓位打平，下方加仓的部分赚钱
16:23 - 16:25
EN: and a profit on your lower buy.
ZH: 这样的话，初始仓位打平，下方加仓的部分赚钱
16:25 - 16:28
EN: You can see the market’s selling off at that high
ZH: 可以看到，在那个高点有一些回调
16:28 - 16:31
EN: because bulls who bought lower are selling here.
ZH: 因为在下方买入的多头会在那里离场
16:31 - 16:34
EN: The ones who bought up here are getting out breakeven,
ZH: 在这里追涨的多头打平离场
16:34 - 16:37
EN: the ones who bought lower are starting to take partial profits,
ZH: 在下方买入的多头至少止盈一部分
16:37 - 16:40
EN: and the bears are selling as well.
ZH: 同时空头在卖出做空
Slide 012
Time: 16:45
Bilingual Transcript
16:45 - 16:46
EN: Tight Trading Ranges.
ZH: 窄震荡区间
16:46 - 16:50
EN: Most traders should not trade them, but experienced traders will.
ZH: 大多数交易者不应该交易，但经验丰富的交易员可以
Slide 013
Time: 16:51
Bilingual Transcript
16:57 - 17:02
EN: A Trading Range is a horizontal channel, and channels can be broad or tight.
ZH: 震荡区间就是一个水平的通道，通道有宽有窄
17:02 - 17:05
EN: This is an example of an extremely Tight Trading Range here.
ZH: 这是一个区间非常窄的案例
17:11 - 17:15
EN: When the channel is fairly broad, when the Trading Range is fairly broad,
ZH: 当通道或者震荡区间比较宽的时候
17:15 - 17:19
EN: traders can enter with stop orders selling below reversals down,
ZH: 交易者可以用突破单入场——反转下跌时做空，
17:19 - 17:23
EN: buying reversals up – and they can sell at the market as it’s going down,
ZH: 反转上涨时做多—— 他们也可以在下跌时市价做空
17:23 - 17:26
EN: they can buy at the market as it’s going up, and they can also enter
ZH: 可以在上涨时市价买入； 也可以用限价单入场——
17:26 - 17:30
EN: with limit orders, selling at a prior high and buying at a prior low here
ZH: 在前期高点挂单做空，在前期低点挂单买入
17:30 - 17:33
EN: or below bad bear flags near the bottom.
ZH: 或者在区间底部的熊旗买入 （注：押注熊旗失败，即下降趋势会反转，而不是继续）
17:41 - 17:46
EN: When the range is very tight like this, there’s very little profit potential.
ZH: 当区间这么窄的时候，几乎没有利润空间
17:46 - 17:49
EN: Most traders should not trade; however,
ZH: 大多数交易者不应该交易
17:49 - 17:52
EN: experienced traders will trade with limit orders,
ZH: 只有少数经验丰富的交易员会使用限价单交易
17:52 - 17:56
EN: selling above bars near the top, buying below bars near the bottom.
ZH: 在顶部附近的K线上方做空， 在底部附近的K线下方做多
17:56 - 18:00
EN: Often they’ll use wide stops, swing stops, and they’ll scale in.
ZH: 他们经常会使用宽止损——波段交易的止损，并且会加仓
18:07 - 18:10
EN: A Tight Trading Range, it’s a limit order market.
ZH: 窄震荡区间，这是限价单市场
18:10 - 18:14
EN: The range is too tight to make money with stops, and it’s usually too tight
ZH: 区间太窄，无法使用突破单入场，
18:14 - 18:17
EN: to make much money even if you’re a limit order trader.
ZH: 甚至用限价单入场都很难赚钱
18:17 - 18:20
EN: Most traders feel like it’s too much work,
ZH: 大多数交易者觉得这样太累了
18:20 - 18:22
EN: too little profit, and it’s better to wait.
ZH: 利润太小，不如等待更好的机会
18:22 - 18:26
EN: Wait for a broader range like this or for a breakout into a trend.
ZH: 等区间的幅度变大，或者等待市场突破进入趋势
Slide 014
Time: 18:30
Bilingual Transcript
18:36 - 18:40
EN: The minimum scalp in the Emini is 1 point (4 ticks).
ZH: ES中，剥头皮的最小目标是1个点（4 ticks）
18:41 - 18:48
EN: To scalp in a tight range, you usually want most of the bars
ZH: 想要在窄震荡区间内交易， 大多数K线至少要和剥头皮的最小目标一样大
18:44 - 18:48
EN: to be at least as big as a minimum scalp size.
ZH: 想要在窄震荡区间内交易， 大多数K线至少要和剥头皮的最小目标一样大
18:48 - 18:51
EN: So you want most of the bars to be at least 4 ticks tall,
ZH: 也就是说，大多数K线的高度至少要有4 ticks
18:51 - 18:59
EN: and you want the height of the range to be at least three times the size
ZH: 整个区间的高度至少要是K线平均大小的3倍， 或剥头皮最小利润的3倍
18:54 - 18:59
EN: of an average bar or three times the height of a minimum scalp.
ZH: 整个区间的高度至少要是K线平均大小的3倍， 或剥头皮最小利润的3倍
18:59 - 19:02
EN: Therefore you want the range to be at least 3 points tall.
ZH: 也就是说，区间的高度至少要有3个点
19:02 - 19:05
EN: Can you make money in a range that’s only 2 points tall?
ZH: 如果区间高度只有两个点，还能赚钱吗？
19:05 - 19:11
EN: Yes, but it takes a lot of work, and a lot of times you have to wait
ZH: 可以，但需要很多努力，而且很多时候需要等很久才能赚到1个点
19:09 - 19:11
EN: through a lot of bars just to make 1 point
ZH: 可以，但需要很多努力，而且很多时候需要等很久才能赚到1个点
19:11 - 19:14
EN: and you have to scale in, and it’s not much fun.
ZH: 有时候需要加仓，这样做没有乐趣可言
19:14 - 19:19
EN: Most traders should not be trading at all
ZH: 大多数交易者根本不应该在这种窄区间里面交易， 少数经验丰富的交易员除外
19:16 - 19:19
EN: when the range is this tight, but some experienced traders will.
ZH: 大多数交易者根本不应该在这种窄区间里面交易， 少数经验丰富的交易员除外
19:23 - 19:27
EN: When it’s very, very tight like this, most traders do not trade.
ZH: 当区间非常非常窄的时候，大多数交易员不会交易
19:27 - 19:29
EN: They just let the computers trade.
ZH: 他们让计算机程序去做
19:29 - 19:30
EN: There’s a lot of trading taking place.
ZH: 仍然有很多交易在发生
19:30 - 19:37
EN: If you look at the volume of these bars, a lot of the bars
ZH: 如果去看这些K线的成交量 很多K线的成交量都有至少5000手合约， 所以确实有计算机在交易
19:33 - 19:37
EN: have 5,000 contracts being traded, so the computers are trading.
ZH: 很多K线的成交量都有至少5000手合约， 所以确实有计算机在交易
19:37 - 19:42
EN: But if you’re an individual trader trading your own account
ZH: 但如果你是散户交易者，依靠自己的判断手动交易，
19:41 - 19:47
EN: in a discretionary way, I think when it’s that tight,
ZH: 但如果你是散户交易者，依靠自己的判断手动交易， 我认为当区间这么窄的时候是不值得去交易的，尤其已经临近尾盘
19:44 - 19:47
EN: it’s not worth trading – especially late in the day.
ZH: 我认为当区间这么窄的时候是不值得去交易的，尤其已经临近尾盘
19:47 - 19:52
EN: You’re tired, not much time left to use wide stops and scale in.
ZH: 你已经累了，一旦做错，没有余地去使用宽止损并加仓
19:55 - 20:01
EN: If you’re going to be trading, you want to be selling
ZH: 一定要交易的话，你要在上半部分用限价卖单做空， 而且只能做剥头皮交易
19:58 - 20:01
EN: with limit orders in the top half, and you’ve got to be scalping.
ZH: 一定要交易的话，你要在上半部分用限价卖单做空， 而且只能做剥头皮交易
20:01 - 20:04
EN: So for example, here’s a High 1 bull flag,
ZH: 例如，这里是一个高1牛旗
20:04 - 20:08
EN: but the market sold off at this price level several times.
ZH: 但在这个区域，市场反转下跌了好几次
20:08 - 20:12
EN: Therefore you can sell at the high of that bar and scale in higher.
ZH: 所以你可以在这根K线的高点挂单做空， 并且在更高的价格加仓
20:12 - 20:13
EN: Here’s another High 1 bull flag.
ZH: 这里又是一个高1牛旗
20:13 - 20:17
EN: Some traders will place a limit order to sell at the high of that bar
ZH: 一些交易者会在那根K线的高点挂限价卖单做空
20:17 - 20:19
EN: and get filled here and then take profit here.
ZH: 订单在这里成交，然后在这里止盈
20:23 - 20:28
EN: If you’re a bull, you want to be buying below bear flags near the bottom.
ZH: 对于多头来说，应该在底部附近的熊旗下方买入
20:28 - 20:31
EN: Here’s a Low 2 bear flag in the bottom half of the Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 这个低2熊旗处于窄震荡区间的下半部分
20:31 - 20:34
EN: Some bulls will buy with a limit order below that bear bar
ZH: 一些多头会在那根阴线下方挂限价单买入
20:34 - 20:41
EN: or at the prior low, at this low, and then they’ll scalp out for 1 point.
ZH: 或者挂在前期低点，这个低点， 然后剥头皮赚1个点离场
20:46 - 20:49
EN: Sometimes you’ll get a small bull bar in the bottom of the Trading Range,
ZH: 有时候区间的底部会有一根小阳线
20:49 - 20:51
EN: and you can buy with a stop and then scalp out.
ZH: 可以在它的上方用突破买单做多，然后快速止盈
20:52 - 20:55
EN: If you’re buying low enough, sometimes you can even make 2 points.
ZH: 如果你买得足够低，有时候甚至可以赚到两个点
20:55 - 20:59
EN: But would I swing trade this? I would not.
ZH: 可以做波段交易吗？不可以
20:59 - 21:01
EN: The range is very, very tight here.
ZH: 这里的区间非常非常窄
21:01 - 21:03
EN: Unlikely to lead to a bull trend.
ZH: 不太可能形成上涨趋势
21:03 - 21:06
EN: If it does start to break strongly into a bull trend,
ZH: 如果它真的强势突破、进入上涨趋势，
21:06 - 21:09
EN: then I’ll start buying and swing trading.
ZH: 那么我再开始买入，做波段交易
21:09 - 21:13
EN: But until then, I’m going to assume the Tight Trading Range will continue
ZH: 在那之前，我会假设市场继续窄幅震荡
21:13 - 21:17
EN: and every time it goes up, it’s going to go down.
ZH: 假设每次上涨之后很快就会下跌； 每次下跌之后很快就会上涨
21:15 - 21:17
EN: Every time it goes down, it’s going to go up.
ZH: 假设每次上涨之后很快就会下跌； 每次下跌之后很快就会上涨
21:17 - 21:20
EN: I’m going to scalp, take quick profits.
ZH: 我会做剥头皮交易，快速止盈
Slide 015
Time: 21:25
Bilingual Transcript
21:29 - 21:32
EN: A Trading Range is a limit order market,
ZH: 震荡区间是一个限价单市场
21:32 - 21:35
EN: and you trade it like any limit order market.
ZH: 更适合用限价单入场交易
21:35 - 21:38
EN: The bulls buy bear strength in the bottom half – so in other words,
ZH: 在下半部分，多头在强势下跌时做多——
21:38 - 21:41
EN: when they see a big bear bar, they’re starting to look to buy
ZH: 看到区间底部的大阴线，他们开始买入做多
21:41 - 21:44
EN: - and the bears sell strong bull strength in the top half.
ZH: 在上半部分，空头在强势上涨时做空
21:44 - 21:48
EN: So when they see big bull trend bars in the top half,
ZH: 当空头在区间顶部看到大阳线
21:48 - 21:49
EN: the bears start looking to sell,
ZH: 他们就会开始做空
21:49 - 21:52
EN: and both take profits somewhere in the middle third.
ZH: 多空双方都会在中间三分之一止盈
21:56 - 22:01
EN: A lot of experienced traders will scale in, scalp, and use wide stops.
ZH: 很多经验丰富的交易者会加仓、剥头皮、使用宽止损
22:04 - 22:09
EN: A strong bull close near the top of a developing range – bears sell.
ZH: 大阳线收盘在震荡区间的顶部——空头卖出做空
22:09 - 22:13
EN: They’ll sell it.
ZH: 做空，做空，押注不会成功（注：押韵！）
22:10 - 22:13
EN: They’ll sell it, betting against a successful breakout.
ZH: 做空，做空，押注不会成功（注：押韵！）
22:16 - 22:18
EN: They’ll sell at a prior high.
ZH: 他们会在前期高点挂单做空
22:18 - 22:20
EN: The market reversed down here.
ZH: 之前市场在这里反转下跌
22:20 - 22:24
EN: Bears will place a limit order to sell at that prior high.
ZH: 空头会在那个高点挂限价卖单
22:25 - 22:27
EN: Prior high here, they’ll sell there.
ZH: 前期高点，挂单做空
22:27 - 22:28
EN: It’s in the upper half of the range.
ZH: 已经是区间的上半部分了
22:28 - 22:31
EN: Some bears would sell at this high as well.
ZH: 一些空头会在这个高点挂单做空
22:31 - 22:33
EN: To me, I think it’s probably too low in the range.
ZH: 我认为这里还不够高 （注：对于大部分交易者而言，限价单越保守越好）
22:33 - 22:37
EN: I’d rather be selling as close to the top of the range as I can.
ZH: 做空的入场点越接近顶部越好
22:42 - 22:45
EN: Some bears will sell at a prior high and they’ll scale in higher
ZH: 一些空头会在前期高点卖出，然后在更高的价格加仓
22:45 - 22:47
EN: - 1 point higher or 2 points higher.
ZH: ——上方一个点或两个点
22:49 - 22:53
EN: Or they’ll sell on a reversal down, below a bear bar.
ZH: 或者在反转下跌时，在阴线下方加仓做空
22:55 - 23:00
EN: We have a bull flag, but it’s near the top of a developing Trading Range,
ZH: 这里有一个牛旗，但已经接近震荡区间的顶部了
23:00 - 23:03
EN: and the buy signal bar has a tail on top.
ZH: 而且做多信号K线有上影线
23:03 - 23:04
EN: Not a particularly strong buy.
ZH: 不是一个特别好的做多机会
23:05 - 23:08
EN: Some bears will place a limit order to sell
ZH: 一些空头会在这根K线的高点挂限价卖单
23:08 - 23:11
EN: at the high of that bar, betting that it’s a bad bull flag
ZH: 押注那是一个糟糕的牛旗
23:11 - 23:14
EN: and that we will reverse down far enough for them to make a 1 point scalp.
ZH: 押注会有足够大的反转下跌，至少可以赚到1个点的剥头皮利润
23:18 - 23:22
EN: Bulls will look to buy at prior lows in the bottom half of the range.
ZH: 多头会在区间下半部分的前期低点挂单买入
23:23 - 23:25
EN: Here’s a prior low.
ZH: 比如这个低点
23:25 - 23:26
EN: The bears are trying to get a reversal.
ZH: 空头尝试向下跌破
23:26 - 23:27
EN: It’s a Trading Range.
ZH: 但它是震荡区间
23:27 - 23:33
EN: Bulls will bet the bear breakout will fail, so they’ll place a limit order buy
ZH: 所以多头押注向下跌破的尝试会失败， 他们在那个低点挂限价单买入，然后赚了就跑
23:31 - 23:33
EN: at that low and then they’ll scalp out.
ZH: 所以多头押注向下跌破的尝试会失败， 他们在那个低点挂限价单买入，然后赚了就跑
23:33 - 23:35
EN: The same is true here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
23:35 - 23:38
EN: They’ll buy at that low and scalp out on a bounce up.
ZH: 他们会在那个低点买入，并在反弹时剥头皮止盈
23:38 - 23:40
EN: A prior low here, they’ll buy at that low.
ZH: 这个前期低点，多头挂单买入
23:45 - 23:48
EN: Many will also scale in lower, so they’ll buy at that low
ZH: 很多人会在下方加仓，比如在这里挂单买入，
23:48 - 23:50
EN: and they’ll buy more 1 point lower,
ZH: 然后在下方1个点加仓
23:50 - 23:53
EN: expecting the market to go back above the breakout point.
ZH: 押注市场回到突破点的上方
23:53 - 23:56
EN: That would allow them to get out breakeven on their first entry
ZH: 那样的话，他们的初始仓位可以打平
23:56 - 24:00
EN: and with a scalper’s profit, a 1 point profit, on their lower entry.
ZH: 下方加仓的部分可以赚到1个点的剥头皮利润
24:03 - 24:06
EN: Some traders prefer to buy on a reversal up.
ZH: 一些交易者更喜欢在反转上涨时买入
24:06 - 24:09
EN: A decent bull body, and it’s a Wedge – one, two, three
ZH: 不错的阳线，而且有楔形底——1，2，3
24:09 - 24:12
EN: - and then buying above this bar, it’s a Micro Double Bottom,
ZH: 然后在这根K线上方买入，这是一个小双底
24:12 - 24:15
EN: a second failed breakout below this low.
ZH: 第二次跌破前期低点失败
24:15 - 24:18
EN: Buying above this bar, it’s a higher probability buy.
ZH: 在这根K线上方买入，这是一个高胜率的买点
24:21 - 24:27
EN: Whenever you see a big bear bar closing near its low
ZH: 每当在区间底部看到大阴线收在最低，多头就会在它的收盘买入
24:24 - 24:27
EN: in the bottom of the range, bulls will buy the close,
ZH: 每当在区间底部看到大阴线收在最低，多头就会在它的收盘买入
24:27 - 24:32
EN: betting that the bear breakout attempt will fail, like here and here.
ZH: 押注向下跌破的尝试会失败，就像这里和这里一样
24:36 - 24:37
EN: A bear flag at the bottom of the range.
ZH: 区间底部的熊旗
24:38 - 24:41
EN: We have a bear breakout to a new low and we have a pullback,
ZH: 大阴线跌到新低，有一些反弹
24:41 - 24:49
EN: so a Low 1 bear flag, but 2 bull bars and the sell signal bar
ZH: 所以这是低1熊旗，但有两根阳线 而且做空信号K线（这根K线）是阳线，下影线很长
24:46 - 24:49
EN: (this bar) has a bull body and a tail on the bottom.
ZH: 而且做空信号K线（这根K线）是阳线，下影线很长
24:49 - 24:51
EN: It’s a low probability sell.
ZH: 在这里做空的胜率很低
24:51 - 24:54
EN: Bulls will place a limit order to buy at that low.
ZH: 多头会在那个低点挂限价单买入
Slide 016
Time: 24:57
Bilingual Transcript
24:59 - 25:02
EN: All Trading Ranges eventually break out into trends.
ZH: 所有震荡区间最终都会被突破、进入趋势
Slide 017
Time: 25:03
Bilingual Transcript
25:11 - 25:15
EN: Trading Range, so traders are looking to buy low, sell high, and scalp.
ZH: 震荡区间，因此交易者在寻找低买、高卖的剥头皮机会
25:15 - 25:18
EN: Until there’s a strong breakout up or down with good follow-through,
ZH: 直到出现强势的突破和良好的跟随，
25:18 - 25:21
EN: they’ll bet that every breakout will reverse.
ZH: 否则他们就一直押注每次突破都会失败
25:24 - 25:28
EN: The bulls have a breakout, so guess what the bears are going to do?
ZH: 大阳线，猜猜空头会怎么做？
25:28 - 25:31
EN: They’re going to sell it, betting that the bulls
ZH: 空头会卖出做空，押注多头无法制造连续的阳线
25:29 - 25:31
EN: will not get consecutive bull bars.
ZH: 空头会卖出做空，押注多头无法制造连续的阳线
25:32 - 25:35
EN: They’ll also sell on a reversal down, especially Micro Double Top.
ZH: 他们也会在反转下跌时卖出做空，尤其是有小双顶的话
25:40 - 25:47
EN: Bulls will buy this low, betting that the breakout below this range will fail
ZH: 多头会在这个低点挂单买入，押注跌破区间底部的尝试会失败。 押注这会变成一个3推楔形牛旗
25:45 - 25:47
EN: and that it will be a Wedge bull flag.
ZH: 多头会在这个低点挂单买入，押注跌破区间底部的尝试会失败。 押注这会变成一个3推楔形牛旗
25:47 - 25:54
EN: Bull trend, Wedge – one, two, three, four – and they’ll buy more lower.
ZH: 上涨趋势，楔形牛旗——1，2，3，4—— 他们愿意在下方加仓买入
26:01 - 26:02
EN: We have 2 big bear bars.
ZH: 已经有两根大阴线了
26:02 - 26:04
EN: We have a third big bear bar here.
ZH: 现在出现了第3根大阴线
26:04 - 26:08
EN: If you bought there or here, what are you going to do?
ZH: 如果你在那里或这里买入，现在该怎么办？
26:08 - 26:14
EN: For me, when I see consecutive bear bars here and here closing
ZH: 如果我看到这两根连续的阴线，收在最低，跌破了震荡区间
26:12 - 26:19
EN: on their lows and breaking below a Trading Range, I’m assuming we’re going
ZH: 如果我看到这两根连续的阴线，收在最低，跌破了震荡区间 我会假设市场会继续下跌到MM目标位，也就是说这是一个测量型缺口
26:16 - 26:19
EN: to get a Measured Move down, that it will be a Measuring Gap.
ZH: 我会假设市场会继续下跌到MM目标位，也就是说这是一个测量型缺口
26:19 - 26:23
EN: Therefore, bulls who bought this low and if they have a limit order
ZH: 因此，在这个低点挂单买入的多头，
26:23 - 26:26
EN: to buy more lower and they get filled here, by the close of this bar
ZH: 如果他们在下方挂单加仓、在这里成交， 在这根阴线收盘的时候
26:26 - 26:31
EN: they’re going to say, uh oh – consecutive big bear bars breaking
ZH: 他们知道：糟糕了，连续的大阴线收在最低，跌破了区间底部
26:30 - 26:31
EN: below the bottom of the range.
ZH: 他们知道：糟糕了，连续的大阴线收在最低，跌破了区间底部
26:31 - 26:34
EN: We’re getting a bear breakout below a bull flag
ZH: 向下跌破了牛旗（注：本应该向上突破的）
26:34 - 26:36
EN: and we have consecutive bear bars closing on their lows.
ZH: 而且有连续的阴线收在低位
26:36 - 26:39
EN: The next bar here does not have a bull body.
ZH: 下一根K线也不是阳线
26:39 - 26:44
EN: This is probably going to lead to a Measured Move down, and when that happens,
ZH: 大概率会跌到MM目标位，看到这种情况
26:44 - 26:46
EN: you just sell out of your longs at the market.
ZH: 多头直接离场就可以了
26:46 - 26:48
EN: Don’t try to get a better price.
ZH: 不要等反弹
26:48 - 26:50
EN: You just sell out at the market.
ZH: 直接市价卖出
26:50 - 26:52
EN: The market’s telling you that you’re wrong,
ZH: 市场正在告诉你：你做错了
26:52 - 26:55
EN: and whenever you’re wrong, it’s always better to get out immediately
ZH: 既然你做错了，就应该立刻认错离场
26:55 - 26:59
EN: than hope to be able to get out a little less wrong.
ZH: 而不是希望会有奇迹发生
27:05 - 27:08
EN: The bulls are giving up.
ZH: 多头正在放弃——那就是这两根阴线传递的信号
27:06 - 27:08
EN: That’s what these 2 bars represent.
ZH: 多头正在放弃——那就是这两根阴线传递的信号
27:08 - 27:11
EN: The bears know that the bulls are giving up,
ZH: 空头知道多头放弃了
27:11 - 27:13
EN: and therefore the bears are selling,
ZH: 所以他们大量卖出做空
27:13 - 27:15
EN: betting on a trend down and a Measured Move down.
ZH: 押注市场进入下降趋势，会跌到MM目标位
27:15 - 27:17
EN: They’ll sell for any reason.
ZH: 他们会用任何方式入场
27:17 - 27:19
EN: They’ll sell the close of bear bars.
ZH: 他们会在阴线的收盘卖出做空
27:19 - 27:24
EN: They’ll sell a bull reversal up, betting that there’ll be resumption
ZH: 他们会在反弹时做空，押注下降趋势恢复， 押注多头反转失败
27:22 - 27:24
EN: of the bear trend and the bull reversal will fail.
ZH: 他们会在反弹时做空，押注下降趋势恢复， 押注多头反转失败
27:24 - 27:26
EN: They’ll sell below bars.
ZH: 他们会在K线下方用突破卖单入场
27:30 - 27:37
EN: If you’re a bull and you’re looking to buy with a limit order
ZH: 如果你是多头，你想在这里挂限价买单做多， 押注这是区间的底部
27:34 - 27:37
EN: at the bottom of a bear channel, hoping that you’re buying at the bottom
ZH: 如果你是多头，你想在这里挂限价买单做多， 押注这是区间的底部
27:37 - 27:44
EN: of a Trading Range, you can only take that limit order buy
ZH: 除非你能够在意识到错误时立刻止损离场， 否则就不应该这样做
27:41 - 27:44
EN: if you’re able to get out when you decide that you’re wrong.
ZH: 除非你能够在意识到错误时立刻止损离场， 否则就不应该这样做
27:44 - 27:46
EN: You don’t want to decide down here that you’re wrong.
ZH: 有的人一直跌到这里才愿意承认自己错了
27:46 - 27:52
EN: You want to decide by the close of this bar or the close
ZH: 在这根阴线，或下根阴线收盘的时候， 就应该立刻承认错误，并果断地止损离场
27:49 - 27:52
EN: of the next bar that you’re wrong, and you just take your exit.
ZH: 在这根阴线，或下根阴线收盘的时候， 就应该立刻承认错误，并果断地止损离场
27:53 - 27:57
EN: You lose about a point here and you get out
ZH: 初始仓位亏了大约1个点，加仓的部分几乎没有亏损
27:55 - 27:57
EN: around breakeven on your second entry.
ZH: 初始仓位亏了大约1个点，加仓的部分几乎没有亏损
27:58 - 28:00
EN: This is difficult for beginners to do.
ZH: 新手很难做到这一点
28:00 - 28:07
EN: They see this very strong trend, they see this as a bull flag
ZH: 他们看到上涨趋势非常强，看到了强趋势中的牛旗
28:04 - 28:07
EN: in the strong trend, and they’re in denial
ZH: 他们看到上涨趋势非常强，看到了强趋势中的牛旗
28:07 - 28:09
EN: as the market’s breaking to the down side.
ZH: 于是否认市场向下跌破的事实
28:10 - 28:14
EN: It can cost you a lot of money if you’re unable to get out quickly,
ZH: 如果无法迅速止损，你会亏非常多的钱
28:14 - 28:22
EN: and that’s another reason why only experienced traders should be trading
ZH: 这也是为什么只有经验丰富的交易员才能用限价单在区间底部买入
28:18 - 28:22
EN: with limit orders, buying at the bottom of a Trading Range
ZH: 这也是为什么只有经验丰富的交易员才能用限价单在区间底部买入
28:22 - 28:25
EN: - because sometimes the Trading Range becomes a bear trend,
ZH: 因为有时候震荡区间会变成下降趋势
28:25 - 28:29
EN: as it did here, even if there was a very strong rally initially.
ZH: 就像这个案例一样，尽管最初是非常强势的上涨
28:33 - 28:40
EN: Sometimes a breakout does not look all that strong,
ZH: 有时突破看起来并不是那么强势，但市场就是不断地上涨
Slide 018
Time: 28:33
Bilingual Transcript
28:36 - 28:40
EN: yet it continues up relentlessly.
ZH: 有时突破看起来并不是那么强势，但市场就是不断地上涨
28:45 - 28:47
EN: The market’s in a Trading Range.
ZH: 这里市场处于震荡区间
28:47 - 28:52
EN: 50% chance that you’ll get a bear breakout.
ZH: 50%的概率会向下跌破——这里有一个双顶熊旗
28:50 - 28:52
EN: We have a Double Top bear flag.
ZH: 50%的概率会向下跌破——这里有一个双顶熊旗
28:52 - 28:57
EN: 50% chance we’ll get a bull breakout, a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal
ZH: 50%的概率会向上突破——低点抬高的大反转
28:57 - 29:01
EN: and a Head and Shoulders Bottom – left shoulder, head, right shoulder.
ZH: 也可以看作是头肩底——左肩，头，右肩
29:01 - 29:06
EN: 50% chance the first breakout up or down will fail and reverse.
ZH: 50%的概率，第1次突破，不管是向上还是向下，会失败并反转
29:10 - 29:13
EN: If at some point you decide that it’s becoming a trend,
ZH: 如果某个时刻，你判断市场已经进入了趋势
29:13 - 29:15
EN: stop trading it like a Trading Range.
ZH: 那就不要再按照震荡区间去交易了
29:15 - 29:17
EN: You have to trade it like a trend.
ZH: 必须按照趋势来交易
29:22 - 29:27
EN: Sometimes the breakout can be one huge bar or two medium size bars.
ZH: 有时突破可以是一个巨大的K线，或两三根中等大小的K线
29:27 - 29:31
EN: Other times it’s just a series of small bull bars
ZH: 有时候，只是一连串小阳线
29:31 - 29:34
EN: with very small pullbacks, a very Tight Bull Channel.
ZH: 几乎没什么回调——窄上涨通道
29:34 - 29:38
EN: On a higher timeframe chart this is a very strong breakout,
ZH: 在更高时间周期的K线图上，它是一次非常强势的突破
29:38 - 29:42
EN: and therefore if you see a relentless, very Tight Channel lasting a lot of bars
ZH: 因此，如果你看到一个持续不断的、非常窄的通道，
29:42 - 29:46
EN: – here, it’s about a 7, 8, 9 bar bull Micro Channel
ZH: 持续很多K线——这里是一个持续了8根K线的上涨微通道
29:46 - 29:50
EN: – the market is breaking out and the bears have to get out of shorts
ZH: 说明市场正在突破，空头必须平仓
29:50 - 29:53
EN: even though we’re at the top of a Trading Range.
ZH: 尽管目前处于震荡区间的顶部
29:54 - 30:03
EN: I talk more about breakouts that are made of very small bars
ZH: 在突破的课程中，我详细讲解了由很多小K线组成、但持续很久的突破 （注：15B的后半部分）
29:58 - 30:03
EN: but lasting a lot of bars in the videos on trading breakouts.
ZH: 在突破的课程中，我详细讲解了由很多小K线组成、但持续很久的突破 （注：15B的后半部分）
30:06 - 30:10
EN: Higher Low Major Trend Reversal, Head and Shoulders Bottom.
ZH: 低点抬高的大反转，头肩底
30:16 - 30:19
EN: 21 bars in an extremely Tight Bull Channel,
ZH: 非常窄的上涨通道，持续了21根K线
30:19 - 30:22
EN: and 10 of those bars, no pullback for 10 bars.
ZH: 而且这里连续上涨了10根K线没有回调
30:22 - 30:24
EN: A 10 bar bull Micro Channel.
ZH: 10根K线的上涨微通道
30:24 - 30:28
EN: Even though the market lacks big consecutive bull bars,
ZH: 尽管没有连续的大阳线
30:28 - 30:31
EN: this is a trend based on time more than price.
ZH: 这个趋势是基于时间的，而不是基于价格
30:32 - 30:34
EN: The bulls are owning a lot of bars.
ZH: 多头掌控了市场很久
30:34 - 30:36
EN: The bulls are in control for a lot of bars,
ZH: 这么多根K线，多头都拥有控制权
30:36 - 30:38
EN: even though they’re not getting a big breakout.
ZH: 尽管并没有制造出特别大的大阳线
30:39 - 30:42
EN: On a higher timeframe chart this is a strong breakout.
ZH: 在更高时间周期的K线图上，这就是一次强势的突破
30:42 - 30:44
EN: Traders have to begin to trade it like a trend
ZH: 交易者必须开始按照趋势来交易
30:44 - 30:47
EN: and stop trading it like a Trading Range.
ZH: 不要再按照震荡区间交易了
Slide 019
Time: 30:50
Bilingual Transcript
30:52 - 30:55
EN: Experienced traders will enter with limit orders in Trading Ranges,
ZH: 经验丰富的交易者会在震荡区间里用限价单入场
30:55 - 30:58
EN: buying near the bottom, selling near the top.
ZH: 在底部附近做多，在顶部附近做空
30:58 - 31:02
EN: When you’re taking profits, you have to be scalping for the most part.
ZH: 大部分时候都必须快速止盈、剥头皮
31:02 - 31:05
EN: If the legs up and down are big enough to swing trade,
ZH: 如果上涨和下跌的波段足够大
31:05 - 31:07
EN: you can swing trade part of your trade.
ZH: 也可以继续持有部分头寸，做波段交易
31:08 - 31:12
EN: But I would not bet on a successful breakout because of my 80% rule.
ZH: 但根据80%法则，我不会押注突破成功
31:12 - 31:15
EN: 80% of breakout attempts will fail.
ZH: 因为80%突破的尝试都会失败
31:16 - 31:20
EN: If the market has had a lot of Trading Range days lately,
ZH: 如果最近一段时间有很多震荡区间日
31:20 - 31:22
EN: today’s probably going to be a Trading Range day,
ZH: 那么今天也很可能是震荡的一天
31:23 - 31:27
EN: and therefore if the market is far above the open late in the day,
ZH: 因此，如果在尾盘的时候价格远远高于开盘价
31:27 - 31:30
EN: be prepared to sell a reversal down back toward the open.
ZH: 有可能会反转下跌，跌回到开盘价附近
31:30 - 31:33
EN: If the market is far below the open late in the day,
ZH: 如果在尾盘的时候价格远远低于开盘价
31:33 - 31:37
EN: look to buy a reversal up, especially a second entry buy,
ZH: 准备好在反转上涨时买入做多，尤其是第2做多入场点
31:37 - 31:41
EN: and especially if the open is in the middle third of the day’s range.
ZH: 尤其是如果开盘价处于区间中间三分之一的时候
31:41 - 31:44
EN: When the market’s in a very Tight Trading Range,
ZH: 如果是非常窄的震荡区间
31:44 - 31:52
EN: most traders should not trade, but experienced traders will sometimes trade
ZH: 大部分交易者不应该在这里面交易， 但经验丰富的交易者有时会用限价单交易，使用宽止损并加仓
31:48 - 31:52
EN: with limit orders using wide stops and scaling in.
ZH: 大部分交易者不应该在这里面交易， 但经验丰富的交易者有时会用限价单交易，使用宽止损并加仓
31:53 - 31:57
EN: Even though my 80% rule says that 80% of breakout attempts will fail,
ZH: 尽管根据80%法则，80%突破的尝试都会失败
31:57 - 32:00
EN: eventually there will be a successful breakout.
ZH: 但最终会有成功的突破
32:00 - 32:05
EN: When the market begins to trend, stop trading it like a Trading Range.
ZH: 当市场开始进入趋势时，就不要再按照震荡区间的方法交易了
32:05 - 32:08
EN: Accept what’s going on and begin to trade it appropriately.
ZH: 接受正在发生的现实，并采用正确的方法交易
32:08 - 32:10
EN: Begin to trade it like a breakout.
ZH: 按照突破的方法去交易
32:14 - 32:15
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
32:15 - 32:17
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
32:17 - 32:22
EN: This is the fourth of four videos on trading in Trading Ranges.
ZH: 如何交易震荡区间的4节课，到这里就全部讲完了