al-brooks-course
39A - Trading MTR Bottoms
Raw transcript and slide notes for 39A - Trading MTR Bottoms.
Overview
- Slides: 13
- Transcript segments: 252
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:11
EN: This is the first of four videos on trading Major Trend Reversal Bottoms.
ZH: 接下来的4节课，我们来讲底部大反转结构
Slide 001
Time: 00:12
Bilingual Transcript
00:14 - 00:18
EN: I want to begin by talking a little bit about the setup and how to trade them,
ZH: 我会先讲解它是什么样的结构，如何交易，
00:18 - 00:23
EN: and then I want to talk about the importance of anticipating the setup.
ZH: 然后也会讲到预判机会的重要性
Slide 002
Time: 00:24
Bilingual Transcript
00:26 - 00:29
EN: When traders are looking for a Lower Low Major Trend Reversal,
ZH: 当交易者预期低点降低的大反转时，
00:29 - 00:33
EN: they need some evidence that the bulls are strong.
ZH: 他们需要看到多头变得强势的证据
00:36 - 00:40
EN: Once traders decide that the market’s in a bear trend,
ZH: 一旦交易者认定市场处于下降趋势
00:40 - 00:43
EN: they assume that every reversal attempt will be minor
ZH: 他们就会假设每次上涨都只是小反弹
00:43 - 00:47
EN: and lead to either a bear flag and a resumption of the bear trend
ZH: 会变成熊旗，然后下降趋势恢复
00:47 - 00:51
EN: or a Trading Range, not a major reversal into a bull trend.
ZH: 最多变成震荡区间，而不是大反转称为上涨趋势
00:51 - 00:56
EN: However, at some point if a minor reversal has pretty good Buying Pressure,
ZH: 然而，在某些时候，如果小反转体现了相当好的买压
00:56 - 01:00
EN: a series of bull bars lasting 10 bars, getting gap bars
ZH: 比如连续很多阳线，上涨持续10根K线，有缺口K线
01:00 - 01:04
EN: - here we have a gap below the low of this bar and the Moving Average,
ZH: ——这根K线的低点和均线之间存在缺口
01:04 - 01:06
EN: and most importantly breaking above the bull channel
ZH: 最重要的是（强势）突破了下降通道线
01:06 - 01:11
EN: - traders wonder if the next attempt at a reversal will be major instead of minor.
ZH: ——交易者会想，下一次反转的尝试可能不再是小反转， 而是大反转
01:11 - 01:17
EN: So instead of leading to another bear flag, maybe it’ll lead to a bull trend.
ZH: 下一次反弹也许不再是熊旗，而是发展成上涨趋势
01:17 - 01:19
EN: Traders, after this much Buying Pressure,
ZH: 在看到这么大的买压之后，
01:19 - 01:23
EN: will trade the next reversal up for a swing trade.
ZH: 多头会在下一次反转上涨时押注波段交易
01:25 - 01:28
EN: After 3 big bear bars like this and a weak buy signal bar,
ZH: 连续3根这样的大阴线，做多信号很弱
01:28 - 01:31
EN: a lot of traders will wait for a second entry buy.
ZH: 多头会等待第2次做多入场点
01:31 - 01:33
EN: We have one here, but again it’s a bear bar.
ZH: 比如这里，但是信号K是阴线
01:33 - 01:41
EN: Other traders prefer to buy above a bull bar, so they’ll place a buy stop
ZH: 一些交易者更喜欢在阳线上方买入， 所以他们会在这根K线的高点上方挂突破买单， 然后把止损放在下面
01:37 - 01:41
EN: to get long above the high of this bar and put a stop down here.
ZH: 所以他们会在这根K线的高点上方挂突破买单， 然后把止损放在下面
01:41 - 01:45
EN: This is a small Double Bottom and a Lower Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 这是一个小双底，大结构是低点降低的大反转
01:45 - 01:49
EN: This is a small Double Bottom Higher Low after the reversal up,
ZH: 反转上涨之后，低点抬高
01:49 - 01:52
EN: but this is a Lower Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 但首先是低点降低的大反转 （注：然后是低点抬高的大反转）
01:52 - 01:54
EN: We’re below the bear trend low.
ZH: 低于之前下降趋势的最低点
01:55 - 02:01
EN: We have a strong enough minor reversal to make traders
ZH: 小反转足够强，这让交易者认为下一次有可能是大反转
01:58 - 02:01
EN: think the next reversal possibly could be major.
ZH: 小反转足够强，这让交易者认为下一次有可能是大反转
02:01 - 02:05
EN: And by major, traders are looking for at least a couple legs up, a swing up,
ZH: 大反转的意思是，交易者期待至少有两段上涨，
02:05 - 02:10
EN: a reward at least twice as big as the risk, and usually 20 or more bars.
ZH: 利润至少是风险的两倍，波段通常持续20根或更多K线
02:10 - 02:17
EN: Here, the bulls who took any of these buys ended up
ZH: 在这些地方买入的多头最终赚到的利润，是风险的好几倍
02:14 - 02:17
EN: with a reward many times greater than their risk.
ZH: 在这些地方买入的多头最终赚到的利润，是风险的好几倍
02:23 - 02:26
EN: A rally breaking above the bear trend line,
ZH: 反弹突破了下降趋势线
02:26 - 02:28
EN: breaking above the top of the bear channel.
ZH: 突破了下降通道的上沿
02:29 - 02:33
EN: A very strong minor reversal, and therefore traders wonder
ZH: 非常强的小反转，所以交易者会想：
02:33 - 02:36
EN: if the next reversal will be even stronger
ZH: 下一次反转的尝试会不会更强
02:36 - 02:39
EN: and become a major reversal into a bull trend.
ZH: 甚至大反转成为上涨趋势
02:46 - 02:52
EN: We have a Wedge bear flag, which is a reasonable candidate
ZH: 这里有一个楔形熊旗，有可能是反转前的末端熊旗
02:49 - 02:52
EN: for a final bear flag before a reversal.
ZH: 这里有一个楔形熊旗，有可能是反转前的末端熊旗
02:55 - 02:57
EN: Moving Average Gap bars.
ZH: 还有均线缺口K线
02:57 - 03:03
EN: Usually leads to the final leg of a bear trend
ZH: 通常这是尝试大反转之前的最后一段下跌
03:00 - 03:03
EN: before the bulls get an attempt at a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 通常这是尝试大反转之前的最后一段下跌
03:09 - 03:16
EN: The minor reversal has to be at least 5 bars, preferably 10 or more.
ZH: 小反转至少要持续5根K线，最好10根K线甚至更多
03:16 - 03:20
EN: It should break above the top of the bear channel and above the Moving Average.
ZH: 要突破下降通道线，要突破均线
03:20 - 03:23
EN: Sometimes it can be a single bull bar if it’s extremely big,
ZH: 有时候，也可能是一根非常大的大阳线，
03:23 - 03:32
EN: but in general traders need 5 to 10 bars with pretty good bull bars in
ZH: 但通常，多头需要持续5~10根K线的反弹， 其中带有一些非常不错的阳线，然后才会押注大反转
03:27 - 03:32
EN: that minor reversal for traders to begin to look for a major reversal.
ZH: 但通常，多头需要持续5~10根K线的反弹， 其中带有一些非常不错的阳线，然后才会押注大反转
Slide 003
Time: 03:35
Bilingual Transcript
03:41 - 03:51
EN: You have a bear trend line and you have a reversal strong enough to break
ZH: 下降趋势线，反弹足够强势，突破了趋势线， 然后下降趋势恢复，测试前期的低点
03:45 - 03:51
EN: above the trend line, and then you get a resumption
ZH: 下降趋势线，反弹足够强势，突破了趋势线， 然后下降趋势恢复，测试前期的低点
03:48 - 03:51
EN: of the bear trend, testing the old low.
ZH: 下降趋势线，反弹足够强势，突破了趋势线， 然后下降趋势恢复，测试前期的低点
03:51 - 03:54
EN: Sometimes it trends up a little bit above, sometimes it goes a little bit below,
ZH: 有时略高于前期低点，也有可能略低于它
03:54 - 03:57
EN: but you want the bear trend to resume.
ZH: 总之，下降趋势恢复到前期低点附近
04:02 - 04:05
EN: Here we have a very strong resumption of the bear trend,
ZH: 这里的第2段下跌非常强势，
04:05 - 04:11
EN: but it turns out in hindsight, at least,
ZH: 但结果——至少从事后来看—— 是下降趋势末尾竭尽型的抛售高潮
04:08 - 04:11
EN: it was a climactic end of the bear trend.
ZH: 但结果——至少从事后来看—— 是下降趋势末尾竭尽型的抛售高潮
04:11 - 04:15
EN: Usually the resumption of the bear trend will be weak.
ZH: 通常第2段下跌会比较弱
04:15 - 04:18
EN: Lots of overlap, lots of small reversals on the way down.
ZH: 比如，有很多重叠，夹杂着很多阳线
04:23 - 04:25
EN: When the selloff is strong like this,
ZH: 如果是这么强势的下跌
04:25 - 04:29
EN: usually the bulls will need a second entry buy.
ZH: 那么多头就需要等待第2做多入场点
04:29 - 04:32
EN: Normally the first reversal up is minor,
ZH: 因为第1次上涨大概率只是小反弹
04:32 - 04:34
EN: and they need a second entry, which would be buying here.
ZH: 他们需要第2入场点，也就是在这里买入
04:34 - 04:38
EN: While you could buy here for the Lower Low Major Trend Reversal
ZH: 你也可以在这里买入，按照低点降低的大反转结构
04:38 - 04:43
EN: - this low is below that, so it’s a Lower Low – when the selloff is this strong,
ZH: ——它低于前期低点，所以低点降低了—— 但是当下跌如此强势时，
04:43 - 04:46
EN: normally the first reversal up will not get far
ZH: 通常第1次反转不会上涨太多
04:46 - 04:49
EN: and you’ll have to come down and test this low close.
ZH: 市场会再次下跌，测试这个最低的收盘价
04:49 - 04:54
EN: The bears are selling closes, and they’re disappointed by this rally.
ZH: 有空头在它的收盘卖出做空，他们对反弹感到失望
04:54 - 04:58
EN: They’ll sell more as the rally continues,
ZH: 所以在反弹时逢高卖出更多
04:58 - 05:01
EN: expecting the market to get down to this close – which it did.
ZH: 期待市场回到它的收盘价——就像这样 （注：然后初始仓位打平、加仓的部分赚钱离场）
05:01 - 05:06
EN: Higher probability to buy on the reversal up here, the second reversal up.
ZH: 在这里买入的胜率更高，因为这是第2次反转上涨
05:06 - 05:09
EN: Or you could start buying closes as the market goes up.
ZH: 或者你可以在市场上涨时，在K线的收盘买入
Slide 004
Time: 05:15
Bilingual Transcript
05:17 - 05:21
EN: Finally, after you have the break above the trend line
ZH: 最后（大反转需要的是），突破趋势线，
05:21 - 05:25
EN: and the resumption of the bear trend, you want a good buy signal bar
ZH: 下降趋势恢复到前期低点附近， 然后再次反转上涨
05:25 - 05:28
EN: as the market’s starting to get another pullback.
ZH: 多头需要一根好的做多信号K线
05:28 - 05:34
EN: However, this pullback, you think,
ZH: 多头认为，这一次不仅仅只是反弹而已， 而是可能反转成为上涨趋势
05:31 - 05:34
EN: has a chance to not be a pullback but an actual trend reversal.
ZH: 多头认为，这一次不仅仅只是反弹而已， 而是可能反转成为上涨趋势
05:35 - 05:38
EN: In general, when you have a Major Trend Reversal setup,
ZH: 通常来说，当你看到一个大反转的结构
05:38 - 05:41
EN: you have about a 40% chance of a swing.
ZH: 有大约40%的概率可以赚到波段
05:43 - 05:47
EN: It’s a higher probability reversal if you have a strong buy signal bar.
ZH: 如果做多信号K足够强，反转的概率就更高
05:47 - 05:49
EN: This is not a very good buy signal bar.
ZH: 它不算一个特别好的做多信号K线
05:49 - 05:54
EN: This is a reversal bar, but it has a bear body, so that is not strong either.
ZH: 而它，尽管确实是反转K线，但实体部分是阴线， 所以也不够强势
05:54 - 06:00
EN: If you prefer, you can buy above a bull bar,
ZH: 如果你愿意，你可以等待，然后在阳线上方挂突破买单， 比如在它的上方，或者它的上方
05:57 - 06:00
EN: like above this bar, or above this bar as well.
ZH: 如果你愿意，你可以等待，然后在阳线上方挂突破买单， 比如在它的上方，或者它的上方
06:08 - 06:09
EN: Sell Climax.
ZH: 抛售高潮
06:09 - 06:10
EN: Weak buy signal bars.
ZH: 做多信号K线比较弱
06:11 - 06:14
EN: In general, the market might be transitioning into a Trading Range,
ZH: 通常来说，市场可能正在转变为震荡区间
06:14 - 06:18
EN: and if you have a low in a Trading Range and you have a second entry buy,
ZH: 如果在震荡区间的底部，出现了第2次反转上涨，
06:18 - 06:22
EN: even with a weak buy signal bar, it’s usually a profitable trade.
ZH: 即使做多信号K线比较弱，它也是一笔能够赚钱的交易
06:25 - 06:28
EN: In this box we also have 5 consecutive bull bars;
ZH: 在这个框框里有5根阳线
06:29 - 06:34
EN: 4 of them have closes above the midpoint, so that’s a sign of bulls buying
ZH: 其中4根收在一半以上，说明多头在新低挂限价买单
06:34 - 06:38
EN: at the new low or on the reversal up from the prior low.
ZH: 或者从看到价格从新低反转上涨时买入
Slide 005
Time: 06:45
Bilingual Transcript
06:48 - 06:50
EN: When you buy the reversal, you’re buying in a bear trend.
ZH: 如果你做多、押注反转上涨，说明你是在下降趋势中买入
06:50 - 06:55
EN: The market usually is still Always In Short, and it often is Always In Short
ZH: 此时市场仍然是下降趋势
06:55 - 06:59
EN: for 5 or more bars after the market begins to reverse.
ZH: 并且通常在开始反转后的5根或更多K线内， 依然处于下降趋势
07:04 - 07:09
EN: And that is why I say the probability is only about 40%
ZH: 这就是为什么我说做多赚到波段的胜率只有40%
07:07 - 07:09
EN: that you’re going to get a swing profit.
ZH: 这就是为什么我说做多赚到波段的胜率只有40%
07:09 - 07:13
EN: The bears are still strong, and at this point it’s still slightly more
ZH: 空头仍然强势，并且在这个时候，
07:13 - 07:18
EN: likely the bear trend will continue than it is that the bull trend will reverse,
ZH: 下降趋势继续的概率仍然略微更高一些， 而不是反转成上涨趋势的概率更高
07:18 - 07:21
EN: and that’s why I say the market’s still Always In Short.
ZH: 所以我说此时仍然是下降趋势（做空胜率更高）
07:28 - 07:31
EN: Once traders believe it’s clearly Always In Long
ZH: 一旦交易者认为市场已经进入单边上涨
07:31 - 07:33
EN: - maybe by the third consecutive bull bar,
ZH: ——比如看到了连续3根阳线之后
07:33 - 07:36
EN: the fourth consecutive bull bar closing on its high
ZH: 又有第4根阳线收在最高
07:36 - 07:41
EN: - then the probability of making a profit goes up to 60% or more.
ZH: 那么做多赚钱的概率就提升到了60%或更高
07:43 - 07:46
EN: It could get that way with a single very big bull bar,
ZH: 有时一根非常大的大阳线就可以改变趋势，
07:46 - 07:52
EN: but it’s much more common to get a series of 3 or 4 ordinary bull bars.
ZH: 但更常见的是，需要连续3~4根普通的阳线
Slide 006
Time: 07:55
Bilingual Transcript
07:59 - 08:02
EN: Traders can take profits all at once,
ZH: 交易者可以一次性全部止盈
08:02 - 08:04
EN: or they can scale out in two or more steps.
ZH: 也可以把仓位分成两批，甚至更多批止盈
08:10 - 08:15
EN: Remember, you’re taking a trade that only has a 40% chance of a swing profit.
ZH: 要知道，这样的交易只有40%的概率可以赚到波段的利润
08:15 - 08:19
EN: To compensate for that low probability, you need good risk/reward.
ZH: 为了弥补胜率的不足，你需要良好的盈亏比
08:19 - 08:25
EN: At a minimum, you should be exiting with a profit
ZH: 最低要求是，你的利润至少要达到两倍实际风险
08:22 - 08:25
EN: that is at least twice your Actual Risk.
ZH: 最低要求是，你的利润至少要达到两倍实际风险
08:25 - 08:32
EN: If your Actual Risk is very small, then you should exit
ZH: 如果实际风险太小了，那么目标就是两倍初始风险
08:29 - 08:32
EN: with a profit that’s at least twice your Initial Risk.
ZH: 如果实际风险太小了，那么目标就是两倍初始风险
08:32 - 08:34
EN: If the Initial Risk is also small,
ZH: 如果初始风险也很小
08:34 - 08:38
EN: then look for some other rational reason to take profits.
ZH: 那么就需要寻找其它合理的目标位
08:45 - 08:49
EN: If you bought above this bar, you get filled right here.
ZH: 如果你在这根K线上方挂突破买单，订单会在这里成交
08:49 - 08:53
EN: Your Initial Risk might be to below the low of this bar.
ZH: 你的初始风险是到这根K线的低点下方
08:53 - 08:59
EN: Your Actual Risk, you know it after the market starts to go up,
ZH: 在市场开始上涨后，你就可以知道， 实际风险就只是到这根K线的低点而已
08:56 - 08:59
EN: where it’s to just below the low of this bar.
ZH: 在市场开始上涨后，你就可以知道， 实际风险就只是到这根K线的低点而已
09:00 - 09:03
EN: This is really the Initial Risk, to below the low of that bar.
ZH: 这是初始风险的高度——到低点下方
09:03 - 09:06
EN: This is one times the Initial Risk, and that is two times the Initial Risk.
ZH: 一倍初始风险，两倍初始风险
09:06 - 09:10
EN: And you can see when the market got there, it pulled back,
ZH: 可以看到，涨到两倍初始风险的地方，市场回调了
09:10 - 09:12
EN: and that tells you that traders sold.
ZH: 说明有多头在卖出
09:12 - 09:17
EN: They sold either because they’re taking profits
ZH: 说明有多头在两倍初始风险的地方止盈
09:15 - 09:17
EN: based upon two times the Initial Risk
ZH: 说明有多头在两倍初始风险的地方止盈
09:17 - 09:20
EN: or they sold because it’s testing a prior high.
ZH: 或者，因为这是前期高点，所以多头止盈
09:21 - 09:24
EN: And you also had bears selling as well, at least for a scalp.
ZH: 同时，也有空头在卖出做空，尝试剥头皮赚快钱
09:24 - 09:27
EN: However, the channel up is fairly tight.
ZH: 然而，上涨通道很窄
09:27 - 09:30
EN: The odds are the first pullback will be minor
ZH: 第1次下跌大概率只是小回调
09:30 - 09:34
EN: and the bull trend will resume, and therefore it’s a low probability short.
ZH: 上涨趋势大概率回恢复，所以做空的胜率较低
09:41 - 09:44
EN: When you’re near the close of the session and you’re still long,
ZH: 临近收盘的时候，如果你仍然持有多头仓位
09:44 - 09:47
EN: you have to look for reasons to take profits.
ZH: 那么你必须找机会去止盈
09:47 - 09:50
EN: For example, we have a bear reversal bar here.
ZH: 例如，这里有一根反转阴线
09:50 - 09:51
EN: Exiting below its low is okay.
ZH: 在它的低点下方离场是可以的
09:51 - 09:56
EN: It’s not a strong sell signal and it’s following 4 decent bull bars.
ZH: 这不是一个强势的做空信号，而且左边是4根不错的阳线
09:56 - 10:01
EN: It’s okay to hold to see if you get a strong bear reversal and then exit lower.
ZH: 所以可以继续持有，看看会不会有强势的反转下跌，然后再离场
10:01 - 10:09
EN: If you do not exit here, then you exit a few seconds
ZH: 如果这里你没有止盈，那么可以在收盘前几秒钟， 或者提前一两分钟平仓止盈
10:05 - 10:09
EN: before the close of the session, or maybe a minute or two
ZH: 如果这里你没有止盈，那么可以在收盘前几秒钟， 或者提前一两分钟平仓止盈
10:08 - 10:09
EN: before the close of the session.
ZH: 如果这里你没有止盈，那么可以在收盘前几秒钟， 或者提前一两分钟平仓止盈
Slide 007
Time: 10:15
Bilingual Transcript
10:18 - 10:22
EN: Whenever I see a bear channel, I look at it and I see a bull flag.
ZH: 每当我看到下降通道，我就把它看作是牛旗
10:22 - 10:26
EN: 75% chance it’s eventually going to get a bull breakout,
ZH: 有75%的概率它最终会被向上突破
10:28 - 10:32
EN: and then I expect a transition into a big Trading Range.
ZH: 然后我预期市场会变成一个大的震荡区间
10:33 - 10:40
EN: Therefore, the major reversal that you have here probably will result
ZH: 因此，这里看到的大反转，可能也只是这个大震荡区间中的上涨波段
10:37 - 10:40
EN: in the formation of a large Trading Range.
ZH: 因此，这里看到的大反转，可能也只是这个大震荡区间中的上涨波段
10:40 - 10:44
EN: However, the move up can be enough for a swing trade.
ZH: 然而，涨幅足够大，足够做波段交易
10:52 - 10:56
EN: When the market’s rallying, it’s retracing the Lower Highs.
ZH: 在上涨的过程中，市场正在测试前期的重要高点
10:56 - 11:01
EN: For the bears, they believe it’s still a bear trend
ZH: 对空头来说，他们认为只要重要的高点仍然在降低， 这就仍然是下降趋势
10:58 - 11:01
EN: as long as it keeps making major Lower Highs.
ZH: 对空头来说，他们认为只要重要的高点仍然在降低， 这就仍然是下降趋势
11:01 - 11:05
EN: Here’s a Lower High that has a strong selloff to a new low.
ZH: 这个高点，后续强势跌破创新低， 所以它是重要的高点
11:04 - 11:05
EN: This is major.
ZH: 这个高点，后续强势跌破创新低， 所以它是重要的高点
11:05 - 11:07
EN: If the market gets above that high,
ZH: 如果这个高点被突破
11:07 - 11:10
EN: the bears believe that it’s no longer in a bear trend.
ZH: 空头就认为这不再是下降趋势
11:10 - 11:13
EN: It’s then either in a Trading Range or in a bull trend.
ZH: 而是要么处于震荡区间，要么处于上涨趋势
11:14 - 11:19
EN: For the bulls, these Lower Highs are all targets,
ZH: 对多头来说，前期的这些高点， 包括整个下降通道的起跌点，都是目标
11:17 - 11:19
EN: all the way up to the top of the channel.
ZH: 对多头来说，前期的这些高点， 包括整个下降通道的起跌点，都是目标
Slide 008
Time: 11:25
Bilingual Transcript
11:27 - 11:31
EN: Whenever you’re looking for any kind of a trade, it’s always good to anticipate.
ZH: 当你在寻找交易机会的时候，要能够预判是什么机会
11:32 - 11:34
EN: Look at what the market is trying to do,
ZH: 观察市场正在做什么
11:34 - 11:38
EN: and if you can see a pattern setting up, then you’re ready to take the trade.
ZH: 如果你能看到一个结构正在形成，那么你就能够做好交易的准备
Slide 009
Time: 11:40
Bilingual Transcript
11:50 - 11:52
EN: The market sold off, rallied, sold off, rallied,
ZH: 市场下跌，反弹；下跌，反弹；
11:52 - 11:55
EN: and selling off again for the third time.
ZH: 然后是第3次向下的推动
11:55 - 12:00
EN: Even though it does not have a Wedge shape, the buying has been pretty good
ZH: 尽管它没有标准的楔形形状，但下跌途中的买压相当不错
12:00 - 12:07
EN: in the prior rallies, and when you have a third push down it
ZH: 只要有3次向下的推动，它和楔形底的功能就是一样的， 有可能会反转成为上涨的波段
12:03 - 12:07
EN: often functions like a Wedge Bottom and you can get a swing up.
ZH: 只要有3次向下的推动，它和楔形底的功能就是一样的， 有可能会反转成为上涨的波段
12:07 - 12:11
EN: This third push down did not quite reach the line, but that does not matter.
ZH: 第3推没有完全碰到通道线，但这无伤大雅
12:11 - 12:14
EN: A lot of times you get an undershoot like that.
ZH: 很多时候会有这样的“短缺”
12:16 - 12:20
EN: When you see the third push down forming, you have to be ready
ZH: 当你看到第3推正在形成时，
12:20 - 12:24
EN: for the possibility of a reversal – basically a Wedge Bottom,
ZH: 就要准备好反转的可能性——它基本上就是楔形底
12:24 - 12:29
EN: and that means a couple legs sideways to up, at least 10 bars sideways to up.
ZH: 也就是说，接下来会有两段上涨，至少是横盘； 至少持续10根K线
12:35 - 12:45
EN: You only want to be buying a Wedge reversal,
ZH: 只有下降通道足够宽的情况下，也就是反弹幅度足够大的时候， 你才能够买入做多、押注楔形底反转
12:38 - 12:45
EN: a Wedge Bottom, if the channel is fairly broad,
ZH: 只有下降通道足够宽的情况下，也就是反弹幅度足够大的时候， 你才能够买入做多、押注楔形底反转
12:41 - 12:45
EN: meaning if the legs up in the channel are fairly strong.
ZH: 只有下降通道足够宽的情况下，也就是反弹幅度足够大的时候， 你才能够买入做多、押注楔形底反转
12:45 - 12:50
EN: That increases the chances that you’ll get a reversal up
ZH: 宽通道增加了第3推之后反转上涨的概率
12:48 - 12:50
EN: after the third push down.
ZH: 宽通道增加了第3推之后反转上涨的概率
12:53 - 12:55
EN: Traders will buy the reversal up.
ZH: 交易者会在反转上涨时买入
12:56 - 12:59
EN: A new low, some traders will buy the reversal up.
ZH: 跌到新低，有人逢低买入
12:59 - 13:01
EN: A new low, they’ll buy the reversal up.
ZH: 新低，逢低买入
13:01 - 13:05
EN: Again, when it’s very steeply down, as it is here with those 3 bear bars,
ZH: 再次强调，如果下跌这么陡峭，比如这里的3根大阴线，
13:05 - 13:08
EN: a lot of traders will wait for a second entry buy,
ZH: 很多交易者会等待第2做多入场点
13:08 - 13:12
EN: like above this bar or above a bull bar, and get long here.
ZH: 比如在这根K线上方，或者在阳线的上方，挂突破买单做多
13:13 - 13:17
EN: That has a higher probability of leading to a profitable trade.
ZH: （第2入场点）赚钱的概率更高
13:22 - 13:28
EN: If a Wedge channel is very tight, it’s usually not worth buying
ZH: 如果楔形通道非常窄，通常最好不要买入 （注：窄通道不数3推）
13:26 - 13:28
EN: if you’re in a Wedge bear channel.
ZH: 如果楔形通道非常窄，通常最好不要买入 （注：窄通道不数3推）
13:30 - 13:32
EN: For example, here, this is a very Tight Channel.
ZH: 例如这里，它是一个很窄的通道
13:32 - 13:35
EN: You can call it a Wedge Bottom – one, two, three.
ZH: 你也可以数3推——1，2，3
13:35 - 13:37
EN: Chances are you’re not going to get much of a rally.
ZH: 但大概率不会有大反转
13:37 - 13:41
EN: The reversal up will be minor, and the bear trend will try to resume.
ZH: 更有可能只是小反弹，然后下降趋势恢复
13:42 - 13:45
EN: This is a lower probability buy, certainly for a swing.
ZH: 在这里买入，能赚到大波段的概率很低
13:45 - 13:47
EN: It’s a very low probability buy.
ZH: 对于波段交易而言，是低胜率的入场点
13:47 - 13:51
EN: However, now, in addition to a Wedge – one, two, three
ZH: 然而，现在除了楔形——1，2，3之外，
13:51 - 13:54
EN: - we have a potential Lower Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 还是潜在的低点降低的大反转结构
13:54 - 13:58
EN: This has a higher chance of leading to a swing up.
ZH: 此时出现上涨波段的概率就更高了
Slide 010
Time: 14:00
Bilingual Transcript
14:08 - 14:11
EN: When I say you want a relatively Broad Channel,
ZH: 之前我说通道要足够宽，
14:11 - 14:16
EN: here we have about 10 bars up in each of the two attempts to rally.
ZH: 这里的两次反弹，上涨都持续了大约10根K线
14:17 - 14:21
EN: If the rallies are small, like 2, 3, 4, 5 bars,
ZH: 如果反弹很小，比如只有2，3，4，5根K线
14:21 - 14:30
EN: they are minor and any reversal will probably lead to either a bear flag
ZH: 那么就只是变成熊旗，然后下降趋势恢复， 或者变成震荡区间
14:27 - 14:30
EN: and a resumption of the bear trend or a Trading Range.
ZH: 那么就只是变成熊旗，然后下降趋势恢复， 或者变成震荡区间
Slide 011
Time: 14:35
Bilingual Transcript
14:38 - 14:43
EN: When you have a potential Wedge Bottom or potential Major Trend Reversal Bottom,
ZH: 潜在的楔形底，或者潜在的底部大反转结构，
14:43 - 14:46
EN: the final leg is often a weak selloff.
ZH: 通常最后一段下跌时比较弱的
14:46 - 14:51
EN: It often contains several bull bars and stair steps down.
ZH: 往往会包含几根阳线，呈阶梯状下跌
14:53 - 14:56
EN: Alternatively, the bear bars will often have big tails below,
ZH: 或者，阴线都有很长的下影线
14:56 - 14:59
EN: and every bear bar will be followed by a bull bar.
ZH: 而且阴线后面的跟随都是阳线
14:59 - 15:01
EN: That is not the case here.
ZH: 这个案例不是这样
15:02 - 15:07
EN: Here we have the strongest series of 3 bear bars in the entire bear trend.
ZH: 它们是整个下降趋势中最强的3根大阴线
15:07 - 15:09
EN: The bear trend lasted about 50 bars.
ZH: 此时下降趋势已经持续了大约50根K线
15:09 - 15:13
EN: Whenever you have the strongest bear breakout occurring 20 or more bars
ZH: 如果下降趋势已经持续了超过20根K线， 再看到最强势的空头突破，
15:13 - 15:19
EN: into a bear trend, it’s more likely to be an exhaustive end
ZH: 它更有可能是趋势末尾的抛售高潮，而不是开始加速下跌
15:16 - 15:19
EN: of the trend instead of an acceleration of the trend.
ZH: 它更有可能是趋势末尾的抛售高潮，而不是开始加速下跌
15:19 - 15:24
EN: It’s therefore more likely to be an Exhaustion Gap than a Measuring Gap.
ZH: 因此，它更有可能是一个竭尽型缺口，而不是测量型缺口
15:24 - 15:28
EN: At this point there’s a gap between this close and that low,
ZH: 此时，它的收盘和那个地点之间存在缺口
15:28 - 15:33
EN: so it’s more likely to get up to that low and to the top of the Sell Climax
ZH: 所以更有可能反弹到那个低点，反弹到抛售高潮的起跌点
15:33 - 15:36
EN: than it is to fall for a Measured Move down.
ZH: 而不是下跌到MM目标位
15:47 - 15:53
EN: Again, as I said, when the selloff to the new low is extremely strong like this,
ZH: 再再再次强调，如果抛售这么强势的话，
15:53 - 15:56
EN: it’s better to wait for a second entry buy.
ZH: 最好等待第2做多入场点
15:56 - 15:58
EN: You have a higher probability of making a profit.
ZH: 这样赚钱的概率更高
16:04 - 16:06
EN: Again, a bear trend.
ZH: 这也是一个下降趋势
Slide 012
Time: 16:05
Bilingual Transcript
16:11 - 16:15
EN: We have a rally to the Moving Average and we have a selloff to a Higher Low.
ZH: 反弹到均线，然后恢复下跌，形成更高的低点
16:15 - 16:21
EN: Is this a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal? Is it major or is it minor?
ZH: 它是低点抬高的大反转结构吗？或者只是小反转？
16:21 - 16:26
EN: The rally lasted only 4 bars, and we could not get
ZH: 反弹仅持续了4根K线，而且没能收盘在均线的上方
16:23 - 16:26
EN: a single close above the Moving Average.
ZH: 反弹仅持续了4根K线，而且没能收盘在均线的上方
16:26 - 16:30
EN: The selloff lasted about 7 or 8 bars, which is good,
ZH: 抛售持续了大约7~8根K线，（对于空头来说）这很好
16:30 - 16:32
EN: the resumption of the bear trend, and we have a Higher Low.
ZH: 下降趋势恢复，形成了更高的低点
16:32 - 16:34
EN: However, this is a problem.
ZH: 然而，这里有一个问题
16:34 - 16:39
EN: We have a very Tight Bear Channel, and all we have is a 4 bar rally
ZH: 下降通道非常窄，而反弹只持续了4根K线
16:39 - 16:41
EN: that touches the Moving Average.
ZH: 刚好碰到均线而已
16:41 - 16:42
EN: This is a 20 gap bar sell signal.
ZH: 这是空头的做空信号——
16:42 - 16:46
EN: The market has not been back to the Moving Average in about 20 bars.
ZH: 市场连续20多根K线没有反弹碰到过均线
16:46 - 16:48
EN: The bears are going to be very eager to sell.
ZH: 空头非常渴望逢高卖出的机会
16:48 - 16:51
EN: It got to the Moving Average and they sold again here.
ZH: 反弹到了均线，所以空头再次卖出做空
16:51 - 16:54
EN: They sold here, they sold here, they sold here, they sold here.
ZH: 他们在这里、这里、这里、这里，不断卖出做空
16:55 - 17:03
EN: This is not enough Buying Pressure, after this tight a bear channel
ZH: 下降通道这么窄，持续了这么多K线， 多头没有制造出足够的买压来形成大反转结构
16:59 - 17:03
EN: lasting this many bars, to create a major reversal,
ZH: 下降通道这么窄，持续了这么多K线， 多头没有制造出足够的买压来形成大反转结构
17:03 - 17:07
EN: and therefore this Higher Low is probably a minor reversal,
ZH: 所以尽管低点抬高了，大概率也只是小反弹
17:08 - 17:10
EN: which means it will result either in a Trading Range
ZH: 也就是说，要么变成震荡区间
17:10 - 17:13
EN: or a bear flag and not a bull trend.
ZH: 要么是熊旗，而不会变成上涨趋势
17:32 - 17:33
EN: Look at the bear bars.
ZH: 看看这些阴线
17:33 - 17:37
EN: Series of 5, 6, 7 bear bars, 10 bear bars.
ZH: 连续5、6、7…10根阴线
17:37 - 17:41
EN: The biggest pullback lasted only 1 bar here, 1 bar here, 1 bar here.
ZH: 而反弹最多只有1根K线，这里1根K线，这里1根K线
17:41 - 17:46
EN: This is not the kind of trend that is about to turn into a bull trend,
ZH: 这样的下降趋势不会轻易被反转成上涨趋势
17:46 - 17:50
EN: and therefore any reversal that we get, even though you could argue it
ZH: 因此，任何形式的反转上涨，就算你认为会是大反转
17:50 - 17:55
EN: might be a Major Trend Reversal, it’s probably going to be a minor reversal.
ZH: 但现实是，更有可能只是小反转
17:55 - 17:59
EN: The bulls need much more buying than just 4 bars up to the Moving Average.
ZH: 对多头而言，仅仅4根K线反弹到均线是远远不够的
18:01 - 18:03
EN: If anything, it’s better to look to sell.
ZH: 如果要做，最好找做空机会
18:03 - 18:08
EN: We have a Low 2 short – Low 1, another test of the Moving Average,
ZH: 这里是低2做空入场点——低1，再次反弹到均线，
18:08 - 18:10
EN: Low 2 with a bear bar closing below its midpoint.
ZH: 低2，有阴线收在一半以下
18:10 - 18:13
EN: You have a higher probability of making money selling
ZH: 在这根阴线下方卖出做空，有更大的概率可以赚钱
18:13 - 18:17
EN: below this bear bar than you do buying above this bull bar.
ZH: 在这根阳线上方买入做多则会亏钱
Slide 013
Time: 18:20
Bilingual Transcript
18:22 - 18:25
EN: In this video I talked about trading Major Trend Reversal Bottoms,
ZH: 这节课我介绍了底部大反转的结构
18:26 - 18:30
EN: and I talked about the importance of trying to anticipate the bottom.
ZH: 还讲到了如何预判底部的形成
18:34 - 18:35
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
18:35 - 18:37
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
18:37 - 18:41
EN: This is the first of four videos on trading Major Trend Reversal Bottoms.
ZH: 底部大反转结构的第1节课，就先讲到这里