al-brooks-course
46D - Trading Broad Bear Channels
Raw transcript and slide notes for 46D - Trading Broad Bear Channels.
Overview
- Slides: 25
- Transcript segments: 673
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:09
EN: This is the fourth of five videos on trading Broad Bear Channels.
ZH: 这是如何交易宽下降通道的第4节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:11
Bilingual Transcript
00:13 - 00:18
EN: A bear trend needs Lower Highs, especially major Lower Highs.
ZH: 下降趋势需要高点不断降低，尤其是重要的高点
00:18 - 00:22
EN: A major Lower High is one that leads to a strong breakout to a new low.
ZH: 重要高点是指强势跌破创新低的起跌点
00:23 - 00:26
EN: 2nd Leg Traps are common in Broad Bear Channels
ZH: 第2段陷阱在宽下降通道中很常见
00:26 - 00:30
EN: because Broad Bear Channels are very similar to Trading Ranges
ZH: 因为宽下降通道非常类似于震荡区间
00:30 - 00:32
EN: that are just sloped down somewhat.
ZH: 只不过是略微向下倾斜而已
00:32 - 00:43
EN: You get a strong second leg and traders think it’s going to lead
ZH: 看到强势的第2段，交易者以为会强势突破进入趋势， 但价格突然反转，把追涨或追空的人都套牢了
00:35 - 00:43
EN: to a strong breakout with follow-through, yet it quickly reverses
ZH: 看到强势的第2段，交易者以为会强势突破进入趋势， 但价格突然反转，把追涨或追空的人都套牢了
00:39 - 00:43
EN: and traps traders into either buying too high or selling too low.
ZH: 看到强势的第2段，交易者以为会强势突破进入趋势， 但价格突然反转，把追涨或追空的人都套牢了
00:44 - 00:47
EN: Because the channel is basically a Trading Range
ZH: 因为宽下降通道基本上就是略微向下倾斜的震荡区间
00:47 - 00:51
EN: that’s sloped downward, bulls can make money by buying new lows
ZH: 多头可以通过在前期低点挂单买入并逢低加仓赚钱
00:51 - 00:55
EN: and adding on lower, and a lot of times they’ll use wide stops.
ZH: 很多时候他们会用比较宽的初始止损
Slide 002
Time: 00:57
Bilingual Transcript
01:06 - 01:09
EN: In a bear trend, bears trail their stops
ZH: 在下降趋势中，空头采用追踪止损
01:09 - 01:12
EN: to above the most recent major Lower High.
ZH: 把止损移动到最近一个重要高点的上方
01:12 - 01:20
EN: A major Lower High is a Lower High that leads to a strong reversal down
ZH: 重要高点，是指强势下跌波段的起跌点，通常需要创新低
01:17 - 01:20
EN: or a strong breakout, usually to a new low.
ZH: 重要高点，是指强势下跌波段的起跌点，通常需要创新低
01:20 - 01:25
EN: So this is a major Lower High, and similar to this, we got a strong breakout.
ZH: 所以它是重要的高点，和这个一样，强势的下跌
01:25 - 01:32
EN: At this point this is a major Lower High, after you’ve had a strong breakout,
ZH: 在这根大阴线之后，它变成了重要的高点， 尽管此时还没有跌到新低
01:30 - 01:32
EN: even though it’s still not yet to a new low.
ZH: 在这根大阴线之后，它变成了重要的高点， 尽管此时还没有跌到新低
01:33 - 01:38
EN: As soon as the market makes a new major Lower High, has that strong breakout,
ZH: 一旦看到这样强势的大阴线
01:38 - 01:41
EN: wherever the bears had their stops before,
ZH: 不管空头之前的止损在哪里
01:41 - 01:44
EN: they move their stops to just above the most recent major Lower High,
ZH: 他们会把止损移动到最近一个重要高点的上方
01:44 - 01:47
EN: and that is called trailing the stop.
ZH: 这就是追踪止损的意思
01:50 - 01:52
EN: We have a strong breakout to a new low.
ZH: 强势跌破创新低
01:52 - 01:54
EN: Is this a major high?
ZH: 它是重要的高点吗？
01:54 - 01:57
EN: Well, it probably is after that many bars down.
ZH: 大概率是，因为下跌了这么多根K线
01:57 - 02:00
EN: A lot of traders would still consider this to be the major Lower High,
ZH: 很多空头仍然会把它看作是最重要的高点
02:00 - 02:03
EN: because this reversal up is so minor.
ZH: 因为这里的反弹幅度太小了
02:07 - 02:10
EN: Took a lot of bars, but we broke to a new low.
ZH: 花了很长时间，总算向下跌破了
02:10 - 02:15
EN: We have a gap down and another breakout here, so this is a major Lower High.
ZH: 跳空低开，再次下跌，所以它是重要的高点
02:15 - 02:17
EN: Now, is this a major Lower High?
ZH: 那么它是不是重要的高点呢？
02:17 - 02:19
EN: We broke strongly to a new low.
ZH: 连续大阴线跌到新低
02:19 - 02:22
EN: Some traders would consider this a major Lower High
ZH: 一些交易者会认为它是重要的高点
02:22 - 02:25
EN: and they’d put their stop above, and if they got stopped out,
ZH: 他们会把止损放在它的上方，如果被打掉了
02:25 - 02:27
EN: they would sell on the reversal down.
ZH: 他们会在反转下跌的时候再次卖出做空
02:28 - 02:31
EN: When you have a selloff that has repeated reversals,
ZH: 如果下跌过程中一直有反弹
02:31 - 02:37
EN: a lot of traders go all the way back and label this as a real major Lower High.
ZH: 很多空头会把止损保留在这个高点的上方
02:37 - 02:40
EN: It has other highs that are fairly major here and here,
ZH: 也有其他比较重要的高点，比如这里和这里
02:40 - 02:47
EN: but a lot of traders would keep their stop here until the market broke strongly
ZH: 但很多空头会把止损保留在这里， 直到市场跌破创新低——这里、这里
02:45 - 02:47
EN: to a new low – maybe here, maybe here.
ZH: 但很多空头会把止损保留在这里， 直到市场跌破创新低——这里、这里
02:47 - 02:48
EN: It’s unclear to me.
ZH: 我认为它不够重要
02:48 - 02:51
EN: Some traders would get out here and say this is major.
ZH: 但一些空头会在这里离场，因为这个重要高点被突破了
02:51 - 02:53
EN: Others would do here.
ZH: 一些空头会把止损保留在它的上方
02:53 - 02:55
EN: Both are okay.
ZH: 两者都可以
02:55 - 02:58
EN: When you use a tighter stop, you’re going to get stopped out more;
ZH: 当你使用较窄的止损时，会更频繁地被止损
02:58 - 03:05
EN: when you use a wider stop, you get stopped out less often, and as I said,
ZH: 当你使用较宽的止损时，被止损的频率更低 而且我讲过，如果你真的被止损了， 总是可以在反转下跌时再次入场做空
03:02 - 03:05
EN: if you do get stopped out, you just sell again on a reversal back down.
ZH: 而且我讲过，如果你真的被止损了， 总是可以在反转下跌时再次入场做空
03:08 - 03:11
EN: We have a breakout below a bull channel, a bear flag.
ZH: 跌破了上涨通道——它是熊旗
03:11 - 03:12
EN: Strong breakout.
ZH: 强势的大阴线跌破
03:12 - 03:15
EN: Therefore, this is a major Lower High.
ZH: 所以它变成了重要的高点
03:18 - 03:21
EN: We have another strong breakout here.
ZH: 这根大阴线非常强势
03:21 - 03:24
EN: At this point, after a little bit of follow-through,
ZH: 然后略微有一些跟随
03:24 - 03:28
EN: even though it’s not at a new low, a lot of traders
ZH: 此时尽管还没有创新低， 但很多空头会认为它是非常重要的高点
03:26 - 03:30
EN: would consider this pretty major, and if the market rallied above it,
ZH: 此时尽管还没有创新低， 但很多空头会认为它是非常重要的高点 如果反弹超过了它
03:30 - 03:33
EN: they would get out but sell again on a reversal down.
ZH: 空头就会先离场，等反转下跌的时候再做空
03:33 - 03:37
EN: This is clearly major.
ZH: 这个高点显然很重要——在跌到这里的时候
03:36 - 03:37
EN: Certainly, by this point.
ZH: 这个高点显然很重要——在跌到这里的时候
03:41 - 03:43
EN: We have a breakout to a new low.
ZH: 跌到新低了
03:43 - 03:44
EN: Pretty strong breakout.
ZH: 非常强势的突破
03:44 - 03:48
EN: The bears do not want to see the market get above this high because if it does,
ZH: 空头不希望看到价格超过这个高点
03:48 - 03:51
EN: then they think that maybe it’s no longer in a bear trend
ZH: 否则这就不再是下降趋势了
03:51 - 03:55
EN: and it might now be either in a Trading Range or a bull trend.
ZH: 要么是震荡区间，要么即将变成上涨趋势
03:55 - 04:00
EN: So they get out, and if there’s a strong reversal down,
ZH: 所以他们会先离场； 如果有强势的反转下跌，那个时候再回来做空
03:58 - 04:00
EN: they’ll look to sell again.
ZH: 所以他们会先离场； 如果有强势的反转下跌，那个时候再回来做空
04:00 - 04:02
EN: Here, 3 bull bars, 1 pretty good.
ZH: 这里，3根阳线，其中有1根大阴线
04:02 - 04:03
EN: They might not sell here.
ZH: 空头不会在这里做空
04:03 - 04:07
EN: Here, a Micro Double Top, Micro Triple Top, but a bull bar.
ZH: 小双顶，但它是阳线， 所以空头在它的低点下方挂突破卖单
04:07 - 04:08
EN: They might not sell there.
ZH: 他们不想在这里做空
04:13 - 04:17
EN: As I said, sometimes you have to back up and ignore the minor reversals
ZH: 之前提到，有时候你必须看更大的趋势，忽略小反转
04:17 - 04:21
EN: and just look at the top of the major reversals down,
ZH: 只关注强势下跌波段的起跌点
04:21 - 04:29
EN: and call that a major Lower High, because a lot of times the market
ZH: 把止损放在重要高点的上方； 有的下跌波段看起来很重要
04:25 - 04:29
EN: will make what appears to be fairly major new legs down,
ZH: 把止损放在重要高点的上方； 有的下跌波段看起来很重要
04:29 - 04:35
EN: but the market goes above it, and does not go above more significant Lower Highs.
ZH: 价格突破了它的起涨点，但并没有突破真正重要的高点
04:36 - 04:37
EN: It’s a different style of trading.
ZH: 这取决于每个人的交易风格
04:37 - 04:42
EN: Some traders prefer to use the very wide stops and not get stopped out
ZH: 一些交易者喜欢使用非常宽的止损
04:42 - 04:45
EN: unless the market clearly is no longer in a bear trend.
ZH: 除非市场显然不再是下降趋势，否则他们就一直不离场
04:45 - 04:50
EN: Other traders tend to get out above major tops that are not quite as major,
ZH: 对于一些交易者，尽管这个高点不是最重要的， 但他们也会在它的上方先离场
04:50 - 04:53
EN: and then if the bear trend resumes, they’ll sell again.
ZH: 如果下降趋势恢复，他们会再次做空
Slide 003
Time: 04:55
Bilingual Transcript
05:01 - 05:02
EN: Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 宽下降通道
05:02 - 05:05
EN: Most traders are not going to let their stops get hit.
ZH: 大多数交易者不会让他们的止损真的被打到
05:05 - 05:07
EN: This is a very strong reversal up.
ZH: 非常强势的反转上涨
05:07 - 05:11
EN: It’s a minor reversal – it’s a reversal in a bear channel.
ZH: 它是小反转——是下降通道中的反弹
05:11 - 05:12
EN: Maybe it’s major.
ZH: 有可能是大反转
05:12 - 05:16
EN: Some traders might call it a Double Bottom or a Lower Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 有的多头认为这是双底，或者低点降低的大反转机会
05:16 - 05:18
EN: I’m not convinced that it’s a major reversal.
ZH: 我不认为它会是大反转
05:18 - 05:22
EN: I would assume that this is fairly minor after this strong selloff.
ZH: 我会假设，在这么强的下跌之后，最多只是小反弹
05:23 - 05:26
EN: However, this is a very strong minor reversal up,
ZH: 然而，这段反弹非常强势
05:26 - 05:30
EN: and therefore traders will pay attention to the next reversal up
ZH: 所以交易者会关注下一次反转的尝试
05:30 - 05:37
EN: because after a very strong minor reversal, the next reversal is often major,
ZH: 因为在一个非常强势的小反转之后， 下一次反转的尝试很可能是大反转的机会
05:37 - 05:39
EN: especially if there are other reasons to buy.
ZH: 特别是如果还有其他的买入理由
05:39 - 05:42
EN: Here we have a Micro Double Bottom and a nested Wedge.
ZH: 这里有一个小双底和嵌套式楔形底
05:42 - 05:48
EN: Three reversals up – one, two, three, and then one, two, three.
ZH: 3次反转上涨——1，2，3；还有1，2，3
05:54 - 06:00
EN: When there are minor reversals and then selloffs
ZH: 在小反弹之后，如果下跌也不是特别强势
05:58 - 06:00
EN: that are not particularly strong,
ZH: 在小反弹之后，如果下跌也不是特别强势
06:00 - 06:05
EN: traders look at every one of these minor reversals down as minor Lower Highs,
ZH: 空头会认为这些高点都是次要的高点
06:05 - 06:08
EN: and rather than buying on a stop above those,
ZH: 他们不会在这些高点上方买入
06:08 - 06:12
EN: bears will sell with limit orders at that high and scale in higher
ZH: 而是会在前期高点挂限价卖单，并且逢高加仓做空
06:12 - 06:15
EN: and keep a stop above the most recent major high.
ZH: 把止损放在最近一个重要高点的上方
06:15 - 06:20
EN: When the market goes above minor highs, like above this
ZH: 当价格超过次要高点的时候， 比如这里，这里，或者这里
06:18 - 06:20
EN: or above that or above this,
ZH: 当价格超过次要高点的时候， 比如这里，这里，或者这里
06:20 - 06:25
EN: bears assume the rally will fail and the bear trend will resume.
ZH: 空头押注反转的尝试会失败、下降趋势即将恢复
06:25 - 06:28
EN: Therefore, yes, it’s rallying for 30 or 40 bars,
ZH: 所以，尽管价格反弹了30~40根K线
06:28 - 06:35
EN: but it’s still more likely a bull leg in a Trading Range
ZH: 但它仍然只是震荡区间或宽下降通道中的反弹
06:33 - 06:35
EN: or a Broad Bear Channel than the start
ZH: 但它仍然只是震荡区间或宽下降通道中的反弹
06:35 - 06:39
EN: of a bull trend – even though there’s a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 而不是上涨趋势的开始——尽管有低点抬高的大反转结构
06:39 - 06:44
EN: Remember, most Major Trend Reversals, 60% of them do not lead to bull trends.
ZH: 要知道，大部分大反转的结构， 60%无法真的形成上涨趋势
06:44 - 06:49
EN: They lead to either a Trading Range, or a resumption of the bear trend.
ZH: 要么变成震荡区间，要么是熊旗，然后下降趋势恢复
06:52 - 06:55
EN: Again, some bears would sell above this high,
ZH: 同样，会有空头在这个高点上方卖出做空
06:55 - 06:58
EN: arguing maybe this is not all that major, it’s still part
ZH: 他们认为这个高点也许没有那么重要
06:58 - 07:03
EN: of a fairly Tight Channel here, and maybe this is the major Lower High,
ZH: 从这个下降趋势来看，重要的高点仍然在这里
07:03 - 07:06
EN: and these are minor Lower Highs.
ZH: 其他这些都是次要的高点
07:06 - 07:09
EN: So these bears would sell with a limit order here
ZH: 所以这些空头会在这里挂限价卖单做空
07:09 - 07:13
EN: and put a stop above what they believe is a much more major Lower High.
ZH: 然后把止损放在更加重要的高点上方
07:17 - 07:21
EN: At this point the market has a Wedge, and it has a nested Wedge
ZH: 此时形成了楔形底，而且是嵌套式楔形
Slide 004
Time: 07:20
Bilingual Transcript
07:21 - 07:23
EN: because there’s a second Wedge here.
ZH: 因为这里还有一个小的楔形底
07:23 - 07:26
EN: The third leg down subdivides into a Wedge.
ZH: 第3段下跌可以细分成更小的3次下跌
07:31 - 07:35
EN: Because it’s a bear trend, even though it’s sideways for a lot of the time,
ZH: 因为这毕竟是下降趋势，尽管大部分时间在横盘
07:35 - 07:38
EN: a lot of traders prefer only to look for the shorts.
ZH: 但很多交易者偏向于只做空、不做多
07:38 - 07:41
EN: We have a strong breakout to a new low.
ZH: 强势跌破创新低
07:41 - 07:44
EN: The market’s clearly Always In Short at somewhere in here.
ZH: 到了这里，市场显然在单边下跌
07:49 - 07:56
EN: They’ll look at these pullbacks as simply deep pullbacks in a Broad Bear Channel
ZH: 只要重要的高点不被突破， 他们就认为这些只是宽下降通道中的反弹
07:54 - 07:56
EN: as long as the market continues to make Lower Highs.
ZH: 只要重要的高点不被突破， 他们就认为这些只是宽下降通道中的反弹
07:57 - 08:02
EN: The market, when it’s in a Broad Bear Channel, will often be Always In Long.
ZH: 当市场处于宽下降通道时，经常会短暂地单边上涨
08:02 - 08:06
EN: Like for example, by the close of this bar, it’s Always In Long.
ZH: 例如，在这根K线收盘时，市场处于单边上涨
08:06 - 08:09
EN: Chances are it’ll either go sideways for a second leg or up.
ZH: 大概率要么横盘，要么有第2段上涨
08:09 - 08:11
EN: The same here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
08:11 - 08:16
EN: The market is probably Always In Long, maybe by the close of this bar,
ZH: 在这根K线收盘，或者这根K线收盘之后， 市场可能已经进入了单边上涨的状态
08:14 - 08:18
EN: by the close of that bar – yet, Always In Long, it still made a new low.
ZH: 在这根K线收盘，或者这根K线收盘之后， 市场可能已经进入了单边上涨的状态 但后续仍然继续下跌创新低了
08:18 - 08:21
EN: Always In Long, strong breakout, but look to the left.
ZH: 单边上涨，大阳线，但是看左边
08:21 - 08:24
EN: It’s not above all the bars to the left.
ZH: 它还没有突破左边的这些K线
08:24 - 08:27
EN: Therefore, in fact, it could be a 2nd Leg Trap
ZH: 所以，实际上它可能是第2段陷阱
08:27 - 08:32
EN: - one, pullback, two or one, pullback to a new low, and then two.
ZH: 1，回调，2；或者1，回调，2
08:33 - 08:35
EN: A two-legged correction – one, pullback, two
ZH: 两段式的反弹——1，回调，2
08:35 - 08:39
EN: - where the pullback goes below the low of the first leg.
ZH: 只不过回调略微跌破第1段的起涨点
08:45 - 08:50
EN: Since the past couple of days have been in a Broad Bear Channel,
ZH: 因为过去几天一直处于宽下降通道
08:50 - 08:57
EN: the bears will keep selling every reversal down
ZH: 所以每次反弹、恢复下跌的时候，空头都会卖出做空
08:53 - 08:57
EN: from what they believe is a minor trend reversal.
ZH: 所以每次反弹、恢复下跌的时候，空头都会卖出做空
08:57 - 09:00
EN: So it rallies, they’ll sell, stop up here.
ZH: 反弹，空头做空，止损放在这里
09:00 - 09:05
EN: Rallies, they’ll sell, stop up here or here, and we have a Double Top.
ZH: 反弹，卖出做空，止损在这里或这里，有一个双顶
09:05 - 09:09
EN: You can call it a Wedge – one, two, three, where two and three form a Double Top.
ZH: 也可以说它是楔形——1，2，3； 其中2和3也可以看作是双顶
09:09 - 09:12
EN: Traders going to look to sell reversals down.
ZH: 空头会在反转下跌时卖出做空
09:12 - 09:16
EN: Strong rally, but not above truly major Lower Highs.
ZH: 强势反弹，但没有突破真正重要的高点
09:16 - 09:17
EN: They’ll sell.
ZH: 空头会卖出做空
09:17 - 09:23
EN: Here, strong rally above what some traders
ZH: 这里，强势反弹，突破了较为重要的高点， 但立刻出现了阴线
09:20 - 09:23
EN: would consider a major Lower High, but a bear bar.
ZH: 这里，强势反弹，突破了较为重要的高点， 但立刻出现了阴线
09:23 - 09:26
EN: It’s not above bigger Lower Highs.
ZH: 但仍然低于最重要的高点
09:26 - 09:28
EN: Traders will assume it’s a bull leg in a Trading Range
ZH: 空头认为这只是震荡区间中的上涨波段
09:28 - 09:30
EN: and then they’ll sell a reversal down.
ZH: 并且会在反转下跌时卖出做空
09:35 - 09:40
EN: The traders who sell, some traders will scalp, thinking that maybe it’ll stay
ZH: 有的空头做剥头皮交易，因为很有可能是震荡区间
09:40 - 09:48
EN: in a Trading Range, and if they do, they should always be trading
ZH: 如果真的做剥头皮，那么最小的目标不应该小于1个点（ES）
09:44 - 09:48
EN: for at least the minimum scalp, which is 1 point in the Emini,
ZH: 如果真的做剥头皮，那么最小的目标不应该小于1个点（ES）
09:48 - 09:54
EN: and they want to get out with at least twice their Actual Risk
ZH: 或者利润至少应该是实际风险的两倍， 除非这个做空机会的胜率非常高
09:52 - 09:54
EN: unless there’s a high probability short.
ZH: 或者利润至少应该是实际风险的两倍， 除非这个做空机会的胜率非常高
09:54 - 09:58
EN: Shorting in a Trading Range like this is not all that high probability.
ZH: 在这样的震荡区间内做空，胜率并没有那么高
09:58 - 10:02
EN: So if a trader sells below that bear bar, his Actual Risk
ZH: 如果一个交易者在那根阴线下方卖出
10:02 - 10:05
EN: - this pullback got just up to that bar,
ZH: 价格正好反弹到那个高点
10:05 - 10:08
EN: so his Actual Risk was a little bit above that yellow line,
ZH: 所以他的实际风险就是到这根黄线
10:08 - 10:10
EN: and two times Actual Risk is here,
ZH: 两倍实际风险在这里
10:10 - 10:12
EN: and you can see what happened when it got down here.
ZH: 可以看到，跌到这里时发生了什么
10:13 - 10:16
EN: It rallied, because bulls were buying what they thought
ZH: 价格反弹了，因为多头在买入做多
10:16 - 10:18
EN: was a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal,
ZH: 他们想要制造低点抬高的大反转
10:18 - 10:22
EN: and bears were buying back their shorts at around two times Actual Risk.
ZH: 空头买入止盈，因为这是两倍实际风险的目标位
Slide 005
Time: 10:30
Bilingual Transcript
10:34 - 10:38
EN: The bears will take profits once they reach their scalp goal,
ZH: 空头在跌到剥头皮目标位的时候止盈，
10:38 - 10:42
EN: or on a reversal up, even if it’s not quite at their profit target.
ZH: 如果还没达到目标位就反转上涨，他们也会离场
10:42 - 10:47
EN: They sell here, two legs down, maybe a Wedge bull flag – one, two, three.
ZH: 他们在这里卖出做空，两段下跌， 然后可能是楔形牛旗——1，2，3
10:47 - 10:51
EN: They’ll buy on a reversal up, especially a second reversal up.
ZH: 他们会在反转上涨时离场，尤其是第2次反转上涨——
10:51 - 10:53
EN: One, pullback, and then two.
ZH: 1，回调，然后2
10:54 - 10:58
EN: The bears who are selling here, a second entry short – one, two
ZH: 在这里卖出的空头，第2做空入场点——1，2
10:59 - 11:02
EN: - are selling because they believe it’s in a Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 做空是因为他们认为目前是宽下降通道
11:03 - 11:08
EN: They will look to take profits at the prior low or on a reversal up, like here.
ZH: 当价格从前期低点下方反转上涨时，空头会止盈，比如这里
11:15 - 11:18
EN: The bears selling here, their Actual Risk is small,
ZH: 在这里做空的空头，他们的实际风险很小
11:18 - 11:24
EN: but they may want to take profits
ZH: 所以最好选择其他目标位，比如MM目标位
11:21 - 11:24
EN: at some kind of a Measured Move target, like here.
ZH: 所以最好选择其他目标位，比如MM目标位
11:24 - 11:25
EN: We have a Head and Shoulders Top.
ZH: 头肩顶
11:25 - 11:27
EN: We don’t know what’s to the left,
ZH: 我们不知道左边的行情是什么样子
11:27 - 11:29
EN: but it could be a Head and Shoulders Top in a bull trend.
ZH: 它可能是上涨趋势中的头肩顶反转
11:29 - 11:33
EN: It could be Head and Shoulders Top, bear flag in a bear trend.
ZH: 可能是下降趋势中的头肩顶熊旗
11:33 - 11:39
EN: In any case, they’ll look for a Measured Move down based
ZH: 总之，空头会根据右肩到颈线的高度， 往下翻一倍作为MM目标位
11:36 - 11:39
EN: upon the height of that Lower High.
ZH: 总之，空头会根据右肩到颈线的高度， 往下翻一倍作为MM目标位
11:39 - 11:42
EN: The bulls were trying to get a Double Bottom and it failed,
ZH: 多头尝试制造双底反转，但失败了
11:42 - 11:46
EN: so instead of breaking above the neckline and rallying for a Measured Move up,
ZH: 没有向上突破颈线涨到MM目标位，
11:46 - 11:49
EN: the bears will look for a Measured Move down.
ZH: 而是向下跌破，所以空头押注会跌到反向的MM目标位
11:52 - 11:54
EN: Test of the low close.
ZH: 测试前期最低的收盘价
11:54 - 11:58
EN: Remember, you have Sell The Close bears selling every bear close.
ZH: 有一些卖空头的收盘，会在每根阴线的收盘加仓做空
11:58 - 11:59
EN: Market reversed up.
ZH: 市场反转上涨
11:59 - 12:02
EN: There’s support at the test of the low close.
ZH: 所以前期最低的收盘价变成了支撑 （注：跌回来的时候空头买入）
12:02 - 12:08
EN: There’s support at the bottom of the buy signal bar
ZH: 做多信号K和入场K的底部，经常也会有支撑
12:06 - 12:08
EN: and the bottom of the buy entry bar.
ZH: 做多信号K和入场K的底部，经常也会有支撑
12:08 - 12:12
EN: Those are also support areas, and that is an area where the bears
ZH: 那些也是支撑区域，
12:12 - 12:15
EN: will look to take profits – or at the new low.
ZH: 也是空头会止盈的区域——或者在新低止盈
12:20 - 12:22
EN: Bottom of a channel.
ZH: 通道的下沿
12:22 - 12:26
EN: Some bears will take profits with a limit order at that trend channel line,
ZH: 一些空头会把止盈的限价买单挂在通道下沿
12:26 - 12:30
EN: or on a reversal up, especially a second reversal up
ZH: 或者在反转上涨时离场，尤其是第2次反转上涨
12:30 - 12:33
EN: - one, pullback, two – especially at a new low.
ZH: ——1，回调，2——特别是从新低反转上涨的时候
Slide 006
Time: 12:37
Bilingual Transcript
12:38 - 12:40
EN: I mentioned 2nd Leg Traps.
ZH: 我提到了第2段陷阱
12:40 - 12:42
EN: I want to talk more about it here.
ZH: 这里我想再讲一下
Slide 007
Time: 12:42
Bilingual Transcript
12:48 - 12:53
EN: A Broad Bear Channel is similar to a Trading Range that’s sloped downward,
ZH: 宽下降通道类似于一个向下倾斜的震荡区间
12:53 - 12:56
EN: and therefore it has a lot of characteristics of Trading Ranges.
ZH: 因此它具有很多震荡区间的特征
12:56 - 12:59
EN: One of the common things in a Trading Range is the market
ZH: 震荡区间中常见的一件事情是：
12:59 - 13:03
EN: has a lot of two-legged moves, and the second leg is often very strong,
ZH: 有很多两段式的移动，而且第2段往往非常强势
13:03 - 13:07
EN: leading traders to believe that it’s on the verge of breaking out into a trend.
ZH: 让交易者认为市场即将突破、形成趋势
13:07 - 13:14
EN: But most trend attempts fail when the market’s in a Trading Range and reverse,
ZH: 但大多数形成趋势的尝试会失败，然后很快反转
13:14 - 13:18
EN: and that strong second leg simply traps traders into buying too high.
ZH: 那个强势的第2段上涨只是一个陷阱，让追涨的多头被套牢
13:18 - 13:23
EN: In a Broad Bear Channel, you can get 2nd Leg Traps up or down.
ZH: 在宽下降通道中，可能会出现上涨或下跌的第2段陷阱
13:28 - 13:32
EN: For example, we have a rally and then we have a second leg up to a new high,
ZH: 例如，反弹，然后有第2段上涨到新高
13:32 - 13:35
EN: and it’s an even stronger rally.
ZH: 它是更加强势的上涨
13:35 - 13:36
EN: It’s a breakout above that high.
ZH: 突破了前期的高点
13:36 - 13:38
EN: Consecutive bull bars.
ZH: 连续的阳线
13:38 - 13:46
EN: However, you look to the left and we’re still below the top
ZH: 然而，看左边，仍然低于下降趋势的起跌点， 所以这有可能是一个陷阱
13:41 - 13:46
EN: of what could be a bear trend at this point, and therefore this might be a trap.
ZH: 然而，看左边，仍然低于下降趋势的起跌点， 所以这有可能是一个陷阱
13:46 - 13:50
EN: It’s strong enough up so that we might get a second leg up or sideways
ZH: 它足够强势，因此可能会有第2段上涨或横盘
13:50 - 13:54
EN: - one, pullback, two – and we did, but you’ve got to be careful.
ZH: ——1，回调，2——确实有，但你必须要小心
13:54 - 13:57
EN: If you’re buying up here, you have to use a wide stop,
ZH: 如果在这里买入，必须使用较宽的止损
13:57 - 14:01
EN: and you probably have to scale in because instead of this being
ZH: 并且很可能需要加仓，因为这可能不是上涨趋势的开始，
14:00 - 14:07
EN: the start of a bull trend, it could be the end of a two-legged correction
ZH: 并且很可能需要加仓，因为这可能不是上涨趋势的开始， 而是震荡区间或宽下降通道中两段式反弹的结束
14:04 - 14:07
EN: in a Trading Range or in a bear trend.
ZH: 而是震荡区间或宽下降通道中两段式反弹的结束
14:08 - 14:13
EN: You can see right here, the market tested the top of that strong bull breakout
ZH: 可以看到，在测试第2段上涨的高点之后，
14:13 - 14:16
EN: and failed, and the bulls finally give up
ZH: 市场反转下跌，多头放弃
14:16 - 14:20
EN: - and the bears knew the bulls would give up, and the bears sold as well.
ZH: 空头知道这一点，所以他们大量卖出做空
14:26 - 14:29
EN: This is an example of two legs down in a bear trend.
ZH: 这是下降趋势中两段下跌的案例
14:29 - 14:33
EN: We gapped down, we rallied, and we sold off very strongly.
ZH: 跳空低开，反弹，然后再次强势地下跌
14:33 - 14:37
EN: Bears are hoping that the market will collapse and accelerate downward,
ZH: 空头希望市场会崩盘、加速下跌
14:37 - 14:41
EN: but it’s still a Broad Bear Channel, which is similar to a Trading Range,
ZH: 但它是宽下降通道，类似于震荡区间
14:41 - 14:48
EN: and therefore you can get two legs down that trap traders
ZH: 可能会出现第2段陷阱，如果认为市场会进入更强的下降趋势， 在这里追空的话就会被套牢
14:45 - 14:48
EN: into thinking the bear trend is becoming stronger.
ZH: 可能会出现第2段陷阱，如果认为市场会进入更强的下降趋势， 在这里追空的话就会被套牢
14:52 - 14:56
EN: Sell The Close bears might sell here, but if they’re quick-thinking,
ZH: 卖收盘的空头可能会在这里做空，但如果他们反应足够快
14:56 - 15:03
EN: they’ll be disappointed by the doji bar and then certainly disappointed
ZH: 对这根十字星感到失望，对后面的阳线感到失望， 他们就会立刻止损离场
14:59 - 15:03
EN: by the bull bar that followed here, and they’ll get out,
ZH: 对这根十字星感到失望，对后面的阳线感到失望， 他们就会立刻止损离场
15:03 - 15:08
EN: fearful that this is simply a 2nd Leg Trap at the bottom of a bear channel.
ZH: 以防这是通道下沿的第2段陷阱
15:11 - 15:15
EN: Bears who sold that close, 3 consecutive bear closes,
ZH: 连续3根阴线，如果在它的收盘做空
15:15 - 15:19
EN: are disappointed by the next 3 bars, and a lot of them got out.
ZH: 对接下来的3根K线感到失望， 很多空头会止损离场
15:22 - 15:26
EN: If they did not get out on the test of that low close over here,
ZH: 如果他们没有在测试前期低点的时候离场
15:26 - 15:30
EN: or anywhere in this tight range, they gave up here.
ZH: 没有在这个窄区间内离场，他们会在这根大阳线放弃
15:30 - 15:33
EN: You can see this bull breakout starting to reverse this selloff,
ZH: 很快就反转了左边的抛售
15:33 - 15:37
EN: and this represents bears buying back their shorts
ZH: 这说明空头在大量买入回补
15:37 - 15:42
EN: - and it also represents bulls buying, expecting a leg up in a Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 也代表多头在买入做多， 押注接下来是宽下降通道中的上涨波段
15:46 - 15:48
EN: The final bears gave up here.
ZH: 最后的空头在这里放弃了
15:48 - 15:50
EN: If they did not give up here, they gave up here,
ZH: 如果他们没有在这里离场，最终会在这里放弃
15:50 - 15:54
EN: and this became a two-legged trap going up in the bear channel.
ZH: 但是它其实是宽下降通道中的第2段上涨陷阱
15:54 - 15:59
EN: Leg 1, pullback, 2, or Leg 1, pullback, 2,
ZH: 1，回调，2；或者1，回调，2
15:59 - 16:02
EN: where the pullback is below the bottom of the first leg up.
ZH: 回调略微低于第1段上涨的起涨点
16:02 - 16:09
EN: This is very similar to that, and they’re close to one another in proximity,
ZH: 这两段上涨非常相似，在时间和空间上也很接近
16:07 - 16:09
EN: so they’re probably part of the same process.
ZH: 这两段上涨非常相似，在时间和空间上也很接近
16:09 - 16:12
EN: This is the first leg, pullback, second leg,
ZH: 第1段，回调，第2段
16:12 - 16:14
EN: trapping traders into buying too high.
ZH: 诱使交易者在高位买入 （注：弱空头买入止损，弱多头买入追涨）
16:14 - 16:18
EN: But look to the left – you’re still within a bear channel or a Trading Range,
ZH: 但是看左边——仍然处于下降通道或震荡区间内
16:18 - 16:23
EN: and you do not want to be buying too high
ZH: 而你不应该在下降通道或震荡区间里面追涨
16:21 - 16:23
EN: in a Broad Bear Channel or in a Trading Range.
ZH: 而你不应该在下降通道或震荡区间里面追涨
16:23 - 16:27
EN: Traders who buy up here are probably going to get trapped.
ZH: 在这里追涨的交易者大概率会被套牢
Slide 008
Time: 16:30
Bilingual Transcript
16:38 - 16:42
EN: Trading Ranges often have two legs up and down, and Broad Bear Channels
ZH: 震荡区间和宽下降通道里， 经常有两段式的上涨或下跌
16:42 - 16:53
EN: often have two legs up and down, and a lot of times the legs up last
ZH: 很多时候反弹足够强势，甚至看起来是在单边上涨—— 至少在5分钟图上是这样
16:47 - 16:53
EN: a lot of bars and are strong enough to make the market Always In Long,
ZH: 很多时候反弹足够强势，甚至看起来是在单边上涨—— 至少在5分钟图上是这样
16:51 - 16:53
EN: at least on a 5-minute chart.
ZH: 很多时候反弹足够强势，甚至看起来是在单边上涨—— 至少在5分钟图上是这样
16:53 - 16:56
EN: This is several days on the 5-minute chart.
ZH: 这是好几天的5分钟K线
16:56 - 16:58
EN: Nobody’s going to be trading a chart that looks like this.
ZH: 没有人会看这样的K线图交易
16:58 - 17:00
EN: This is basically a line chart.
ZH: 基本已经变成线形图了
17:00 - 17:05
EN: It’s a bar chart where the bars are compressed together
ZH: 只能把K线图压缩成这样，才能看到过去几百根K线
17:03 - 17:05
EN: to show many hundreds of bars.
ZH: 只能把K线图压缩成这样，才能看到过去几百根K线
17:05 - 17:07
EN: If you’re going to be trading this many days,
ZH: 如果你要交易这么大的结构
17:07 - 17:09
EN: you’re not going to be using the 5-minute chart to do it.
ZH: 最好不要看5分钟图
17:09 - 17:12
EN: You’ll probably be using a 15-minute or 60-minute chart.
ZH: 最好看15分钟或60分钟图
17:12 - 17:20
EN: In any case, if you were simply looking at the 5-minute chart,
ZH: 在5分钟图上，上涨足够强势， 甚至一度只能做多，不能做空
17:16 - 17:20
EN: the rally up would be strong enough to make the market Always In Long.
ZH: 在5分钟图上，上涨足够强势， 甚至一度只能做多，不能做空
17:20 - 17:21
EN: The same right here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
17:21 - 17:27
EN: This might be 30 or 40 bars up, and if we were only looking at these 100 bars,
ZH: 可能上涨了30、40根K线， 如果只看这100根K线
17:27 - 17:31
EN: this rally would be strong enough to make that chart Always In Long.
ZH: 这段上涨足够强势，只能做多，不能做空
17:37 - 17:42
EN: Leg 1, strong enough so we’ll probably get a second leg sideways to up.
ZH: 第1段上涨足够强势，所以大概率会有第2段上涨，至少横盘
17:42 - 17:43
EN: We have it.
ZH: 这就是第2段
17:43 - 17:45
EN: Once the market’s Always In Long,
ZH: 一旦市场进入单边上涨
17:45 - 17:50
EN: you only have about a 40% chance of a major reversal back down.
ZH: 向下反转成下降趋势的概率就只有40%了
17:50 - 17:52
EN: But when it comes, it often is fast.
ZH: 但真的发生反转时，下跌得往往很快
17:52 - 17:57
EN: Here we gapped down and covered a lot of points simply on the open of the day.
ZH: 这一天跳空低开，一下子就跌了很多
17:57 - 18:01
EN: This is, you can argue, a Higher High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 你可以把它看作是高点抬高的大反转
18:01 - 18:04
EN: We have a bull trend lasting a couple of days,
ZH: 上涨趋势持续了好几天
18:04 - 18:07
EN: a bear breakout, and then a Higher High.
ZH: 跌破上涨趋势线，然后略微创新高
18:07 - 18:10
EN: It’s also a Wedge Top – one, two, three
ZH: 这也是一个楔形顶——1，2，3
18:10 - 18:12
EN: - and a Lower High in a Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 仍然低于下降趋势中前期的重要高点
18:12 - 18:14
EN: But if you’re simply trading a 5-minute chart,
ZH: 如果你只是在5分钟图上交易
18:14 - 18:17
EN: you’re only looking at these 2 days at this point.
ZH: 此时只需要看过去一两天的K线
18:17 - 18:21
EN: You have to be careful that this might be a Higher High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 你必须警惕它可能是高点抬高的大反转
18:21 - 18:27
EN: Any Major Trend Reversal has only a 40% chance
ZH: 任何大反转结构，只有40%的概率能成功地形成相反的趋势
18:25 - 18:27
EN: of actually leading to a major reversal.
ZH: 任何大反转结构，只有40%的概率能成功地形成相反的趋势
18:27 - 18:32
EN: So bull trend, 40% chance of becoming a bear trend.
ZH: 所以这个上涨趋势，有40%的概率变成下降趋势
18:32 - 18:34
EN: But when it happens, it can happen pretty quickly.
ZH: 然而，如果真的反转了，发生的速度往往非常快
18:40 - 18:43
EN: If the bears got out for any reason during this stretch
ZH: 如果空头在这里的某个地方离场了——因为市场在单边上涨
18:43 - 18:47
EN: where the market was Always In Long, they have to be looking to sell again
ZH: 如果他们发现过去几天市场一直处于宽下降通道，
18:47 - 18:52
EN: if they’re looking back at the past several days and seeing
ZH: 当价格恢复下跌的时候，他们必须再次入场做空
18:50 - 18:52
EN: that the market’s in a Broad Bear Channel.
ZH: 当价格恢复下跌的时候，他们必须再次入场做空
18:55 - 18:59
EN: It’s a Higher High Major Trend Reversal, which is a type of Double Top.
ZH: 高点抬高的大反转，是双顶的一种
18:59 - 19:01
EN: So we have a Double Top, we have a neckline.
ZH: 双顶，颈线
19:02 - 19:05
EN: The goal for the bears is at least a Measured Move down.
ZH: 空头至少希望价格跌到MM目标位
19:08 - 19:09
EN: Similar thing here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
19:09 - 19:11
EN: We have a Double Top, neckline.
ZH: 双顶，颈线
19:11 - 19:13
EN: Goal for the bears a Measured Move down.
ZH: 空头希望价格跌到MM目标位
19:13 - 19:18
EN: I always look at the Measured Move based upon the lower of the two highs
ZH: 我总是先根据较低的那个高点来寻找MM目标位，
19:18 - 19:20
EN: as the first target, and if it goes below that,
ZH: 如果继续下跌
19:20 - 19:24
EN: then I’ll look at a Measured Move based upon the higher of the two highs.
ZH: 我再根据较高的高点来寻找MM目标位
Slide 009
Time: 19:30
Bilingual Transcript
19:35 - 19:43
EN: Traders are always paying attention to how far a breakout
ZH: 交易者总是关注向下跌破的幅度， 他们预期下一次突破也会差不多大
19:38 - 19:43
EN: goes below a breakout point because they expect the next breakout to be similar,
ZH: 交易者总是关注向下跌破的幅度， 他们预期下一次突破也会差不多大
19:43 - 19:45
EN: and once you’ve looked at a number of these breakouts
ZH: 每次创新低之后，测量最低点到突破点之间的距离，
19:45 - 19:53
EN: and compared them to breakout points, you have an idea of how far
ZH: 你就大概知道下一次突破会走多远， 以及多头在什么位置会开始买入
19:49 - 19:53
EN: the next breakout will probably go before the bulls come in and start to buy.
ZH: 你就大概知道下一次突破会走多远， 以及多头在什么位置会开始买入
19:56 - 19:58
EN: Strong breakout below a prior low.
ZH: 强势跌破前期低点
19:58 - 20:01
EN: This is the breakout point and that’s the breakout,
ZH: 突破点在这里，最低点在这里
20:01 - 20:05
EN: and how far did this low go below that low?
ZH: 突破的幅度是多少？
20:07 - 20:09
EN: Here, 26 ticks.
ZH: 这里，26个ticks
20:12 - 20:16
EN: This low, this breakout went 62 ticks below that breakout point,
ZH: 这个最低点，距离突破点是62个ticks
20:16 - 20:19
EN: and then you can see other breakouts, how big they are.
ZH: 我标注了每次突破的幅度是多少
20:24 - 20:29
EN: Bulls like to buy below prior lows, and they’ll pay attention to how far lows
ZH: 多头喜欢在前期的低点下方买入，
Slide 010
Time: 20:25
Bilingual Transcript
20:29 - 20:33
EN: have been below breakout points to get an idea of where they should buy.
ZH: 他们关注创新低之后的跌幅， 来确定他们应该在哪里开始逢低买入
20:33 - 20:35
EN: Should they buy exactly at the prior low,
ZH: 限价买单应该正好挂在前期低点呢？
20:35 - 20:39
EN: or should they look to buy a certain number of ticks below that prior low?
ZH: 还是挂在前期低点下方一定距离？
Slide 011
Time: 20:40
Bilingual Transcript
20:44 - 20:47
EN: This breakout point, 26 below the breakout.
ZH: 这里，下跌了26 ticks
20:47 - 20:49
EN: 24 tick breakout here.
ZH: 这里下跌了24 ticks
20:58 - 21:03
EN: Traders see this reversing up 26 ticks below that,
ZH: 之前下跌了26 ticks然后反转上涨
21:03 - 21:09
EN: will expect that if we get around 26 ticks below here, we’ll probably reverse up,
ZH: 交易者预期这次在反转上涨之前，也会下跌大约相同的距离
21:09 - 21:18
EN: and therefore bulls will look to place a limit order to buy 20 ticks,
ZH: 所以多头会把限价买单挂在前期低点下面20、25、26 ticks， 预期至少会有一些反弹
21:13 - 21:18
EN: 25 ticks, 26 ticks below that low, expecting a similar reversal.
ZH: 所以多头会把限价买单挂在前期低点下面20、25、26 ticks， 预期至少会有一些反弹
21:19 - 21:23
EN: If you’re taking limit order trades against a trend,
ZH: 想要用限价单逆势交易
21:23 - 21:26
EN: first of all you should only do it if you’re a very experienced trader,
ZH: 只有经验非常丰富的交易员才能这么做
21:26 - 21:31
EN: and next, usually it’s better to use a wider stop and then scale in,
ZH: 其次，最好能使用比较宽的初始止损，并且加仓
21:31 - 21:34
EN: which means you should be trading very small.
ZH: 这意味着你应该用非常小的仓位交易
21:38 - 21:42
EN: A lot of the bulls who buy below a prior low will take profits
ZH: 在前期低点下方买入的多头，
21:42 - 21:46
EN: at the prior low or somewhere above that prior low.
ZH: 会在这个低点或它的上方止盈
21:46 - 21:49
EN: Some traders will buy with a limit order at that low
ZH: 一些多头会在前期低点挂限价买单
21:49 - 21:53
EN: and then scale in more lower and get out breakeven at their original buy,
ZH: 然后逢低加仓，涨回来的时候初始仓位打平
21:53 - 21:55
EN: and then with a profit on their lower entry.
ZH: 下方加仓的部分赚钱
21:59 - 22:01
EN: Or they can take profits on a reversal down.
ZH: 或者他们可以在反转下跌时止盈
22:01 - 22:05
EN: Let’s say a trader did not buy at that low and instead bought
ZH: 假设一个交易者没有直接在那个低点挂单买入
22:05 - 22:10
EN: about 20 ticks below that low, and they expect the market to reverse up
ZH: 而是在下方20 ticks买入，押注会有反弹
22:10 - 22:14
EN: and retrace about half of the most recent bear leg.
ZH: 至少反弹到左边下跌波段的一半附近
22:14 - 22:19
EN: Therefore, they’ll take profits in that general area,
ZH: 因此，他们会在这个区域止盈， 尤其是当价格开始下跌的时候
22:16 - 22:19
EN: especially on a reversal down.
ZH: 因此，他们会在这个区域止盈， 尤其是当价格开始下跌的时候
22:21 - 22:26
EN: Or they’ll see a reversal up like this and think it’s strong enough
ZH: 或者，他们认为这样的反弹足够强势，会有第2段上涨，
22:26 - 22:33
EN: to get a second leg up, and because the second leg up is still probably
ZH: 但第2段上涨仍然只是下降通道或震荡区间中的反弹波段
22:30 - 22:33
EN: a bull leg in a bear channel or in a Trading Range,
ZH: 但第2段上涨仍然只是下降通道或震荡区间中的反弹波段
22:33 - 22:38
EN: they’ll look to sell at that high or on a reversal down from that high.
ZH: 所以他们会在第1段上涨的高点止盈， 或者在反转下跌的时候止盈
Slide 012
Time: 22:45
Bilingual Transcript
22:47 - 22:50
EN: Market’s making Lower Highs, Lower Lows.
ZH: 高点和低点都在降低
22:50 - 22:52
EN: Therefore, a bear channel.
ZH: 所以是一个下降通道
22:52 - 22:54
EN: Some traders will sell the Lower High.
ZH: 空头会逢高卖出做空
22:55 - 23:00
EN: They want to be selling somewhere in the middle third,
ZH: 他们想在下跌波段的中间三分之一， 或者上半部分开仓卖出
22:57 - 23:00
EN: or the upper half of the most recent leg down.
ZH: 他们想在下跌波段的中间三分之一， 或者上半部分开仓卖出
23:01 - 23:06
EN: They know the last bear breakout was 26 ticks below the breakout point.
ZH: 空头看到上一次往下跌破了26个ticks
23:08 - 23:12
EN: So where will the bears take profits if they sell here?
ZH: 所以这次他们的止盈目标位在哪里？
23:12 - 23:16
EN: Well, they expect a new low,
ZH: 他们预期价格跌到新低，所以不会这么快就止盈
23:14 - 23:16
EN: and therefore they’re not going to be taking profits here.
ZH: 他们预期价格跌到新低，所以不会这么快就止盈
23:16 - 23:19
EN: They want to be taking profits at least at this low,
ZH: 他们至少想要在前期低点止盈
23:19 - 23:23
EN: or they’ll decide that maybe it’s going to go lower.
ZH: 或者他们认为还会再下跌一些
23:23 - 23:26
EN: This breakout went 26 ticks below that.
ZH: 上一次突破的幅度是26 ticks
23:26 - 23:31
EN: Maybe the breakout below will be 10, 20 ticks below here,
ZH: 所以这次也许也可以下跌10，20个ticks
23:31 - 23:35
EN: so some of them will try to take profits a little bit lower than that low.
ZH: 因此一些空头会在略低于前期低点的价格止盈
23:40 - 23:45
EN: Maybe take profits half the distance of the size of that breakout.
ZH: 比如目标是上一次突破幅度的一半
23:45 - 23:46
EN: This is 26 ticks.
ZH: 之前是26 ticks
23:46 - 23:51
EN: Maybe take profits 13 ticks below this low, or on the reversal up.
ZH: 可以把止盈买单挂在前期低点下方13 ticks， 或者在反转上涨时离场
Slide 013
Time: 23:55
Bilingual Transcript
24:01 - 24:02
EN: Big gap down.
ZH: 大幅跳空低开
24:02 - 24:07
EN: When the market is forming gaps, bears are more likely to swing,
ZH: 当缺口保持开放的时候， 空头更倾向于做波段交易
24:07 - 24:09
EN: and bulls are more likely to wait to buy.
ZH: 多头会继续等待，不会轻易买入
24:10 - 24:13
EN: Well, you can see we gapped down here below that low.
ZH: 可以看到，跳空低开，直接跌破了前期的低点
24:13 - 24:17
EN: Will bulls immediately buy on the open, betting that the gap will close?
ZH: 多头会在开盘时直接买入、押注回补缺口吗？
24:17 - 24:18
EN: Some would do that.
ZH: 一些人也许会
24:18 - 24:21
EN: However, others would stop buying
ZH: 但大部分人不会买入
24:21 - 24:25
EN: and wait until the market is entering a stairs pattern again.
ZH: 他们等待市场再次进入阶梯模式
24:26 - 24:29
EN: If you’re buying in a bear trend, you want to see reversals
ZH: 想要在下降趋势中做多，
24:29 - 24:32
EN: right after the market makes a new low, and you want the pullbacks
ZH: 需要看到创新低后立刻反转上涨，
24:32 - 24:35
EN: to go at least halfway up the most recent bear leg.
ZH: 而且需要反弹的幅度至少是左边下跌波段的一半
24:35 - 24:40
EN: At times when the bear trend is particularly strong, it’s usually better not
ZH: 在下降趋势特别强势的时候，最好不要直接做多
24:40 - 24:43
EN: to buy until the bear trend starts to weaken again.
ZH: 应该耐心等待下降趋势变弱
24:49 - 24:53
EN: This pullback slightly overlaps this breakout point,
ZH: 这个反弹略微超过了突破点
24:53 - 24:57
EN: and it almost touches this breakout point exactly.
ZH: 然后几乎正好碰到这个低点
24:57 - 25:02
EN: Therefore, this high, which is leading to a reversal down,
ZH: 所以这个高点，也是后来下跌波段的起跌点
25:02 - 25:04
EN: could be a fairly major high,
ZH: 是一个很重要的高点
25:04 - 25:08
EN: and it’s testing all of these lows and not getting much above them.
ZH: 它测试了前期这些低点，没有大幅突破它们
25:08 - 25:10
EN: These lows are therefore major.
ZH: 所以这些低点也很重要
25:10 - 25:13
EN: Therefore, this line is important.
ZH: 这条线很重要
25:13 - 25:17
EN: It’s important resistance, and it often leads to a Measured Move down.
ZH: 它是重要的阻力，价格往往会跌到MM目标位
25:17 - 25:19
EN: So we know this line is important.
ZH: 已知这条线很重要
25:19 - 25:22
EN: It was support and then it became resistance.
ZH: 它曾经是支撑，然后变成了阻力
25:22 - 25:25
EN: I look to the left to find a major Lower High,
ZH: 往左看，寻找一个重要的高点
25:25 - 25:28
EN: which is right here, and this point is major.
ZH: 也就是它，这个高点很重要
25:28 - 25:31
EN: It led to a strong breakout to a new low.
ZH: 从它开始强势地反转下跌了
25:31 - 25:32
EN: This line is major.
ZH: 再加上这个重要的价格
25:32 - 25:34
EN: When you have two major points,
ZH: 两个重要的价格
25:34 - 25:38
EN: they often create a third major point, a Measured Move down.
ZH: 往往形成第3个重要的价格，也就是MM目标位
25:40 - 25:44
EN: If it falls below a Measured Move based upon that, which it did,
ZH: 如果市场跌破这段高度的MM目标位——确实继续下跌了
25:44 - 25:48
EN: traders will then look to the left for another major point
ZH: 那么交易者会寻找更上方的重要高点
25:48 - 25:51
EN: and look for a Measured Move based upon that.
ZH: 以此来确定下一个MM目标位
25:51 - 25:54
EN: The entire bear trend, we’re breaking out below.
ZH: 整个下降趋势正在加速下跌
25:54 - 25:57
EN: Maybe it’ll fall for a Measured Move down.
ZH: 很可能会跌到某个MM目标位
Slide 014
Time: 26:00
Bilingual Transcript
26:05 - 26:10
EN: Whenever you get a breakout and then a pullback
ZH: 如果突破之后的反弹回到了突破点上方， 我就称之为阶梯模式
26:07 - 26:10
EN: that goes above the breakout point, I call that a stairs pattern.
ZH: 如果突破之后的反弹回到了突破点上方， 我就称之为阶梯模式
26:11 - 26:13
EN: So the market is stair-stepping down.
ZH: 所以这里是阶梯式下跌
26:13 - 26:16
EN: The pullbacks are going above the breakout points.
ZH: 反弹回到了突破点的上方
26:16 - 26:20
EN: That means that bulls can make money buying in a bear trend.
ZH: 这说明多头在下降趋势中可以赚到钱
26:20 - 26:23
EN: It’s still always better to be selling in a bear trend,
ZH: 毕竟是下降趋势，所以做空更好
26:23 - 26:25
EN: but the bulls can make money.
ZH: 但多头也能赚到钱
26:35 - 26:40
EN: Bears who sell reversals down from the middle of the most recent bear leg
ZH: 在反弹到中间区域时卖出做空的空头
26:40 - 26:43
EN: will look to take profits around the prior low,
ZH: 会在前期低点附近止盈
26:43 - 26:48
EN: betting that the market will again pull back
ZH: 押注市场还会再次反弹到最近一段下跌的中间三分之一
26:45 - 26:48
EN: to the middle of the current bear leg.
ZH: 押注市场还会再次反弹到最近一段下跌的中间三分之一
26:56 - 26:59
EN: The bulls see what’s going on as well.
ZH: 多头也看到了现在的价格行为
26:59 - 27:01
EN: They see rallies going above breakout points,
ZH: 他们看到反弹超过突破点
27:01 - 27:04
EN: and they’ll buy for a scalp somewhere
ZH: 所以他们做多剥头皮，
27:04 - 27:07
EN: back up to the middle of the most recent bear leg.
ZH: 押注会反弹到左边下跌波段的中间区域
27:07 - 27:11
EN: Sometimes they’ll buy at the prior low and scale in lower
ZH: 有时他们会在前期低点挂单买入，并在下方加仓
27:11 - 27:13
EN: and just scalp out when it gets back to the breakout point.
ZH: 然后在反弹回到突破点的时候离场
27:13 - 27:17
EN: Other times they’ll buy a reversal up and exit somewhere
ZH: 有时他们在反转上涨时买入
27:17 - 27:19
EN: in the middle of the most recent bear leg.
ZH: 然后在反弹到左边下跌波段中间区域的时候离场
Slide 015
Time: 27:25
Bilingual Transcript
27:27 - 27:29
EN: Traders are always drawing lines.
ZH: 交易者总是在画线
27:31 - 27:35
EN: When the market reverses down and then reverses down a second time,
ZH: 反转下跌，第2次反转下跌
27:35 - 27:39
EN: they can draw a line, and they see what the market does when it gets to that line.
ZH: 连接两个高点画线，然后观察再次碰到那条线时会发生什么
27:39 - 27:41
EN: If it stalls, they’ll look to sell a reversal down.
ZH: 如果滞涨，他们就在反转下跌时卖出
27:41 - 27:44
EN: The market reversed down, reversed down again.
ZH: 反转下跌，再次反转下跌
27:44 - 27:48
EN: Draw a line and you can see traders sold around that line.
ZH: 画线，可以看到空头在这条线卖出做空
27:48 - 27:49
EN: It reversed down.
ZH: 反转下跌
27:49 - 27:53
EN: You can draw a new line, and traders just keep doing that all day long.
ZH: 继续画新的趋势线，不断重复这个过程
27:53 - 27:55
EN: The market reversed down, reversed down a second time.
ZH: 反转下跌，再次反转下跌
27:55 - 27:56
EN: Draw a line.
ZH: 画一条线
27:56 - 27:58
EN: It went above the line, reversed down.
ZH: 略微突破了趋势线，很快反转下跌
27:58 - 28:01
EN: You can draw a new line using that new high.
ZH: 可以根据新的高点调整趋势线
28:02 - 28:05
EN: We then reversed down strongly here.
ZH: 市场从这个高点大幅下跌
28:05 - 28:07
EN: Go to the left, you can use this high or that high.
ZH: 往左边看，用这个高点，或那个高点
28:07 - 28:09
EN: Draw a new line using this high,
ZH: 和这个高点连成线
28:09 - 28:12
EN: and watch what happens when the market gets there.
ZH: 然后观察再次碰到线的时候会发生什么
28:12 - 28:14
EN: A lot of traders will look to sell at that line
ZH: 很多空头会在那条线挂限价单卖出做空
28:14 - 28:16
EN: or on a reversal down from that line.
ZH: 或者在反转下跌时用突破卖单离场
28:20 - 28:21
EN: It’s a channel.
ZH: 这是一个通道
28:21 - 28:27
EN: All trends are in channels, and traders also draw lines using lows.
ZH: 所有的趋势都在某种通道中， 交易者也会连接低点画线
28:27 - 28:29
EN: The market reversed up here, reversed up here.
ZH: 反转上涨，反转上涨
28:29 - 28:33
EN: They draw a line and see what happens if the market gets to that line.
ZH: 连接两个低点画线，看市场碰到那条线时会发生什么
28:33 - 28:35
EN: It broke below it, reversed up.
ZH: 略微跌破，很快反转上涨
28:35 - 28:38
EN: You can now draw another line from this low and that reversal,
ZH: 现在可以连接新的低点画线
28:38 - 28:41
EN: and you get this, and you wait to see what happens here.
ZH: 然后观察碰到新的通道线时会发生什么
28:41 - 28:42
EN: You look for a reversal up.
ZH: 预期价格会反转上涨
28:42 - 28:45
EN: We have two reversals – one, two.
ZH: 反转上涨——1，2
28:45 - 28:49
EN: You can draw a line and see what happens when the market gets near that line.
ZH: 可以画一条线，观察再次碰到它的时候会发生什么
28:49 - 28:53
EN: Look to buy a reversal up, and just keep doing that all the time.
ZH: 准备好在反转上涨时买入，重复这个过程
28:57 - 29:01
EN: When the market’s in a channel, especially one with fairly broad swings,
ZH: 当市场处于通道，尤其是一个波动比较大的宽通道
29:01 - 29:06
EN: 75% of the time when it’s trying to break above the top
ZH: 如果价格尝试突破通道的上沿或下沿，
29:06 - 29:10
EN: or below the bottom of the channel, the breakout attempts will fail,
ZH: 75%突破的尝试都会失败
29:10 - 29:14
EN: and the market will have at least a minor reversal.
ZH: 市场至少会有一些小的反转
29:19 - 29:23
EN: Therefore, whenever the market goes above a line, traders sell a reversal down.
ZH: 因此，每当市场向上突破趋势线， 空头就会卖出做空
29:23 - 29:25
EN: Above a line, sell.
ZH: 突破，做空
29:25 - 29:26
EN: Above a line, sell.
ZH: 突破，做空
29:26 - 29:27
EN: Above a line, sell.
ZH: 突破，做空
29:33 - 29:35
EN: The opposite true at the bottom.
ZH: 在通道下沿也是一样
29:35 - 29:38
EN: When it breaks below a line, traders look to buy a reversal up.
ZH: 跌破通道线的时候，多头买入做多
29:40 - 29:43
EN: When it’s in a bear trend, especially a fairly steep trend,
ZH: 如果下降趋势比较陡峭
29:43 - 29:45
EN: traders will focus more on selling.
ZH: 交易者会更关注做空的机会
29:45 - 29:51
EN: However, as long as the reversals up are fairly strong, bulls will buy as well.
ZH: 然而，只要反弹的幅度足够大，多头也会买入做多
Slide 016
Time: 29:55
Bilingual Transcript
29:56 - 30:02
EN: When bulls are buying in a bear trend – first of all,
ZH: 在下降趋势中逆势做多—— 首先，只有经验丰富的交易员才能这么做
30:00 - 30:02
EN: only experienced traders should be doing that
ZH: 在下降趋势中逆势做多—— 首先，只有经验丰富的交易员才能这么做
30:02 - 30:06
EN: - they’ll be using wide stops, and they’ll often scale in.
ZH: 他们会使用较宽的初始止损，并且经常会加仓
Slide 017
Time: 30:07
Bilingual Transcript
30:12 - 30:16
EN: Some bulls buy with a limit order at the prior low.
ZH: 一些多头在前期低点挂限价单买入
30:16 - 30:17
EN: They see the market selling off.
ZH: 他们看到市场在下跌
30:17 - 30:22
EN: They’ll place a limit order to buy at this low and they’ll get filled right here.
ZH: 他们会在这个低点挂限价买单，订单在这里成交
30:28 - 30:29
EN: Where should their stop be?
ZH: 止损应该放在哪里？
30:29 - 30:33
EN: Well, maybe a Measured Move down from the height of this leg.
ZH: 比如，把这段上涨的高度往下翻一倍
30:33 - 30:38
EN: The bulls are thinking that we have a rally, we have a pullback.
ZH: 多头希望这是上涨之后的回调，然后形成双底
30:37 - 30:38
EN: Maybe we’ll get a Double Bottom
ZH: 多头希望这是上涨之后的回调，然后形成双底
30:38 - 30:41
EN: and break above the neckline for a Measured Move up.
ZH: 之后突破双底的颈线，涨到上方的MM目标位
30:41 - 30:44
EN: On the other hand, the bears will want a breakout below
ZH: 然而，空头希望向下跌破
30:44 - 30:48
EN: and a Measured Move down, and therefore a lot of the bulls
ZH: 跌到反向的MM目标位
30:48 - 30:52
EN: who are going to scale in will put a stop just below a Measured Move down.
ZH: 所以很多打算加仓的多头，会把止损放在MM目标位的下方
Slide 018
Time: 30:55
Bilingual Transcript
31:00 - 31:01
EN: A leg down.
ZH: 下跌
31:01 - 31:06
EN: Some bulls will buy at that low with a limit order and put a stop down here,
ZH: 一些多头会在那个低点挂限价买单， 止损放在MM目标位下方
31:06 - 31:11
EN: and they’re willing to scale in more if the market falls a little bit further.
ZH: 如果市场进一步下跌，他们愿意逢低买入更多
31:16 - 31:17
EN: Same thing here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
31:18 - 31:19
EN: The market reversed up.
ZH: 市场反转上涨
31:19 - 31:22
EN: Theoretically it could’ve formed a Double Bottom here
ZH: 理论上可以在这里形成一个双底
31:22 - 31:26
EN: and rallied above the neckline of the Double Bottom for a Measured Move up.
ZH: 然后向上突破颈线，涨到MM目标位
31:26 - 31:31
EN: If instead it falls, the bears will look for a Measured Move down.
ZH: 如果向下跌破，空头想要跌到反向的MM
31:31 - 31:33
EN: It’s in a stairs pattern, so the bulls assume
ZH: 如果是阶梯式下跌
31:33 - 31:36
EN: that it will not fall for the Measured Move down,
ZH: 多头假设不会下跌那么多
31:36 - 31:39
EN: and instead that there’ll be buyers at or just below that low.
ZH: 在前期低点下方会有很多人买入
31:39 - 31:43
EN: So they’ll buy with a limit order at that low, get filled here,
ZH: 所以他们在前期低点挂限价买单
31:43 - 31:45
EN: and put a stop a little bit below the Measured Move target.
ZH: 然后把止损放在MM目标位下方
31:48 - 31:49
EN: Same thing.
ZH: 这里也是一样
31:50 - 31:54
EN: Here you can see it got very close to the stop, yet it still reversed up.
ZH: 这里非常接近止损，但仍然反转上涨了
32:01 - 32:05
EN: If you’re scalping longs in a bear trend,
ZH: 如果要在下降趋势中做多剥头皮
32:05 - 32:08
EN: you should always go for at least a minimum scalp.
ZH: 你应该至少争取赚到最小目标
32:08 - 32:11
EN: In the Emini a minimum scalp is 1 point,
ZH: ES中剥头皮的最小目标是1个点
32:11 - 32:16
EN: and you should also be going for at least twice your Actual Risk.
ZH: 同时，至少应该争取两倍于实际风险的利润
32:16 - 32:23
EN: If a trade is high probability, you can scalp out at one times your Actual Risk.
ZH: 如果是高胜率的机会，也可以在一倍实际风险处止盈
32:29 - 32:34
EN: Some bulls will take profits at a fixed number of ticks, like 4 points, 16 ticks.
ZH: 一些多头会在固定的距离止盈，比如4个点，即16个ticks
32:35 - 32:37
EN: Buying here, getting out there.
ZH: 在这里买入，在那里离场
32:39 - 32:42
EN: Others will take profits at a resistance level.
ZH: 一些人会在阻力位止盈
32:42 - 32:45
EN: It’s a bear trend, so they expect a Lower High.
ZH: 这是下降趋势，所以预期高点会降低
32:45 - 32:55
EN: So if they buy here, they expect resistance at about a 50% pullback
ZH: 如果在这里买入，他们预期反弹到50%的时候会有阻力， 所以他们会在这里止盈，尽管利润比想象中要少一些
32:49 - 32:55
EN: from the height of the bear leg, and they’ll get out here
ZH: 如果在这里买入，他们预期反弹到50%的时候会有阻力， 所以他们会在这里止盈，尽管利润比想象中要少一些
32:52 - 32:55
EN: even though it’s a smaller profit than they may have wanted.
ZH: 如果在这里买入，他们预期反弹到50%的时候会有阻力， 所以他们会在这里止盈，尽管利润比想象中要少一些
32:58 - 33:04
EN: Others prefer to hold in case it becomes a bull trend,
ZH: 一些人愿意一直持有，押注市场变成上涨趋势， 尽管他们也知道成功率很低
33:02 - 33:04
EN: knowing that it probably will not.
ZH: 一些人愿意一直持有，押注市场变成上涨趋势， 尽管他们也知道成功率很低
33:04 - 33:11
EN: They buy here and they’ll look to sell on a reversal down
ZH: 他们在这里买入， 然后在反弹到中间三分之一的时候离场
33:08 - 33:11
EN: somewhere in the middle third of the most recent bear leg.
ZH: 他们在这里买入， 然后在反弹到中间三分之一的时候离场
33:16 - 33:18
EN: Let’s say a bull bought here.
ZH: 假设一个多头在这里买入
33:18 - 33:20
EN: Whether or not he scaled in here,
ZH: 无论他是否在下方加仓
33:20 - 33:23
EN: he might try to get out at his original entry price.
ZH: 他都想要在初始入场价格离场
33:23 - 33:28
EN: After such a big selloff, he’s now concerned
ZH: 在这么大的下跌之后，他担心也许不会反弹那么多
33:26 - 33:28
EN: that it’s not going to rally very much.
ZH: 在这么大的下跌之后，他担心也许不会反弹那么多
33:28 - 33:31
EN: Let’s say it did not get above his entry price.
ZH: 假设这里没有超过他的入场价
33:31 - 33:36
EN: So this high did not get above that low, so a bull who bought here,
ZH: 假设反弹的高点没有高于突破点，
33:36 - 33:39
EN: disappointed by this, tries to get out breakeven.
ZH: 那么在这里买入的多头会感到很失望， 会尝试整体打平离场
33:39 - 33:41
EN: It gets right near his price but not above it.
ZH: 刚好碰到这个价格，但没有超过 （注：限价卖单无法成交）
33:41 - 33:45
EN: He’ll then exit with a loss on a reversal down.
ZH: 于是在反转下跌的时候，他认亏离场
Slide 019
Time: 33:50
Bilingual Transcript
33:52 - 33:56
EN: A lot of experienced traders will buy small
ZH: 经验丰富的交易员会小仓位买入
33:56 - 33:59
EN: and they’ll scale in lower and use a wide stop.
ZH: 然后逢低加仓，并使用较宽的止损
33:59 - 34:03
EN: By scaling in, you’re increasing your probability,
ZH: 加仓提高了你的胜率，
34:03 - 34:06
EN: but any time you improve your probability on a trade,
ZH: 然而，每当胜率提高的时候
34:06 - 34:11
EN: because of the Trader’s Equation, you have to reduce your risk/reward.
ZH: 根据数学期望，盈亏比往往会变差
34:11 - 34:16
EN: That usually means you’re increasing your risk and reducing your profit.
ZH: 也就是说你的风险增加了，同时利润减少了
34:22 - 34:25
EN: Again, you should always be trading small enough
ZH: 再次强调，（如果要这样做）必须用很小的仓位交易
34:25 - 34:29
EN: so that your risk is not bigger than it is on any other trade.
ZH: 这样总的风险就不会大于平时其他的交易
34:34 - 34:37
EN: A bull buying here might trade very small.
ZH: 在这里买入的多头会用很小的初始仓位
34:37 - 34:38
EN: He knows where his stop is.
ZH: 他知道止损比较远
34:38 - 34:45
EN: He’ll maybe use a Measured Move down, just below the Measured Move down,
ZH: 比如，会放在MM目标位的下方——这条黑线； 然后他可能选择在固定的距离加仓
34:41 - 34:45
EN: this black line, and maybe he’ll scale in at fixed intervals,
ZH: 比如，会放在MM目标位的下方——这条黑线； 然后他可能选择在固定的距离加仓
34:45 - 34:49
EN: like 5 points below his entry price, 5 points, 5 points,
ZH: 比如初始入场价格下方5个点，5个点，5个点
34:49 - 34:52
EN: and then get out of the entire position if it hits the stop.
ZH: 如果打到止损，就全部离场
34:52 - 34:56
EN: If you’re scaling in, you have to be trading very small.
ZH: 想要加仓的话，必须用很小的仓位交易
34:56 - 35:01
EN: You’re scaling in for one reason: to increase the chances of making money.
ZH: 加仓的原因只有一个：增加赚钱的概率
35:02 - 35:07
EN: That means you’re trying to increase your probability,
ZH: 为了增加胜率，你必须接受更大的风险
35:05 - 35:07
EN: and you have to accept greater risk.
ZH: 为了增加胜率，你必须接受更大的风险
35:07 - 35:10
EN: A greater position size, stop further away.
ZH: 仓位变大，止损比较远
35:10 - 35:17
EN: That means you’re getting worse risk/reward as the price
ZH: 你用更差的盈亏比，换来了更高的胜率
35:14 - 35:17
EN: that you’re paying to get the higher probability of making money.
ZH: 你用更差的盈亏比，换来了更高的胜率
35:21 - 35:24
EN: If a trader does buy here and he’s willing to scale in,
ZH: 如果一个多头在这里买入并且愿意加仓
35:24 - 35:28
EN: he can also scale in at a 50% move down to his stop.
ZH: 他也可以在止损距离50%的地方加仓
35:28 - 35:31
EN: So he buys here and he knows where his stop is.
ZH: 他一开始在这里买入，止损在这里
35:31 - 35:34
EN: Maybe buy more halfway down to the stop.
ZH: 在跌到一半的时候加仓
35:37 - 35:41
EN: Other traders – in fact, this is what I like to do,
ZH: 或者——这是我喜欢的方法
35:41 - 35:45
EN: is they’ll buy here and then wait for a reversal up,
ZH: 在这里买入之后，等待反转上涨的信号
35:45 - 35:48
EN: especially if there’s a pretty good bull bar,
ZH: 特别是如果有一个相当不错的阳线
35:48 - 35:54
EN: and then buy more above that bull bar, betting that the market will come back
ZH: 然后在那个阳线上方买入更多，押注市场会回到初始入场价格
35:52 - 35:58
EN: to their entry price and they can get out breakeven on their original buy
ZH: 然后在那个阳线上方买入更多，押注市场会回到初始入场价格 这样初始仓位打平，加仓的部分赚钱
35:56 - 35:58
EN: and with a profit on their lower buy.
ZH: 这样初始仓位打平，加仓的部分赚钱
35:58 - 36:03
EN: As I said, if it starts to turn down without filling your limit order here,
ZH: 刚才讲过，如果没有碰到限价卖单就恢复下跌
36:03 - 36:05
EN: you get out as it turns down.
ZH: 你需要在下跌时离场
36:05 - 36:10
EN: A small loss on your first buy, and a bigger profit on your lower buy.
ZH: 初始仓位小亏，加仓的部分稍微多赚一些
36:15 - 36:18
EN: There’s a second reason why traders sometimes scale in.
ZH: 加仓有两个原因
36:18 - 36:24
EN: One obviously is to make money, and the second is to avoid a loss.
ZH: 一个是为了赚钱，一个是为了避免亏损
36:24 - 36:27
EN: So if they buy and they’re disappointed by the extent of this selloff,
ZH: 如果多头在这里买入，对这么大的下跌感到失望
36:27 - 36:31
EN: they may buy more lower, and then to avoid a loss,
ZH: 他们可能会逢低加仓，目的是为了避免亏损
36:31 - 36:34
EN: try to get out in between their two entry prices.
ZH: 他们想在两次入场的平均价格离场
36:40 - 36:44
EN: One thing that I like to do, and some traders do as well,
ZH: 我喜欢做的一件事情是——
36:44 - 36:49
EN: is instead of taking a buy at that low, they know some scale-in traders
ZH: 我不会直接在前期低点挂单买入， 但我知道有的多头会这么做
36:49 - 36:54
EN: will do that and scale in more lower, especially above a good bull bar.
ZH: 而且他们会在下方加仓—— 尤其是在一根好的阳线上方买入更多
36:54 - 36:58
EN: We cannot see this bar, so we don’t know if it has a strong bull body,
ZH: 这里看不清楚，所以不确定是不是有一根强势的反转阳线
36:58 - 37:03
EN: but if it does, a lot of bulls will buy more above that strong bull bar.
ZH: 如果确实有，很多多头会在它的上方买入加仓
37:03 - 37:06
EN: A lot of times what I’ll do is not take the first entry,
ZH: 所以很多时候我不会在这里买入，
37:06 - 37:09
EN: wait for the strong bull bar, and buy above the bull bar,
ZH: 而是等待下跌之后的反转阳线，在它的上方买入
37:09 - 37:11
EN: expecting it to come back to that first entry.
ZH: 押注价格会反弹回到突破点
37:12 - 37:15
EN: If it gets near there and starts to reverse down,
ZH: 如果接近那里，没碰到就重新下跌
37:16 - 37:18
EN: you get out on the reversal down.
ZH: 你需要在反转下跌时离场
Slide 020
Time: 37:20
Bilingual Transcript
37:24 - 37:27
EN: I want to show a close-up of what I was talking about.
ZH: 我要放大我刚才讲的部分
37:27 - 37:30
EN: This little blue box, I’m going to expand on the next slide.
ZH: 这个蓝色框框，在下一页课件我会把它放大
37:30 - 37:34
EN: Remember I said that some bulls will buy with a limit order here
ZH: 刚才我说一些多头会在这里挂限价单买入
37:34 - 37:37
EN: and then buy more above a strong bull bar,
ZH: 然后在强势的阳线上方买入更多
37:37 - 37:40
EN: expecting the market to get back to their original entry price.
ZH: 押注市场会反弹回到他们的初始入场价格
37:40 - 37:44
EN: So on the next slide, let’s take a look at just this blue box.
ZH: 下一页课件，我们就着重看这个蓝色框框
37:46 - 37:51
EN: Okay, this is the slide that I just showed you, and this is a close-up of it.
ZH: 这是上一页课件，这里我把蓝色框框放大了
Slide 021
Time: 37:48
Bilingual Transcript
37:51 - 37:56
EN: So bulls bought here, which is a test of that low right there.
ZH: 多头在这里买入，订单在跌破前期低点时成交
38:02 - 38:06
EN: And then some bulls will buy more above a bull bar, either above this bull bar
ZH: 然后一些多头会在阳线上方买入更多，要么是这根阳线
38:06 - 38:10
EN: or above that bull bar, expecting the market to get back here
ZH: 要么在那个阳线上方，押注市场反弹回到这里
38:10 - 38:12
EN: where they can get out breakeven on their first entry
ZH: 让他们的初始仓位打平
38:12 - 38:15
EN: and with a profit on their lower entry.
ZH: 下方加仓的部分赚钱
38:15 - 38:20
EN: Other traders do not take this entry if they think the trend is strong,
ZH: 一些交易者觉得下跌很强势，他们不会直接挂单买入
38:20 - 38:24
EN: and they’ll simply look to buy where the scale-in bulls will buy
ZH: 而是在那些多头加仓的地方买入
38:24 - 38:28
EN: and then take profits when it gets up to where the scale-in bulls will get out.
ZH: 然后在同样的地方止盈
38:28 - 38:32
EN: If it gets there and reverses down, especially with a decent bear bar,
ZH: 如果涨上来（注：此时限价卖单无法成交） 反转下跌，特别是有不错的阴线
38:32 - 38:34
EN: they’ll get out below the low of that bar right here.
ZH: 多头会在那根阴线的下方离场
38:35 - 38:40
EN: So those traders will buy here or here and then get out here with a profit.
ZH: 那些多头会在这里或这里买入， 然后在它的下方止盈
38:44 - 38:47
EN: This is the stop which is below the Measured Move target.
ZH: 止损在黑色线，在MM目标位的下方
38:54 - 38:58
EN: Because it’s a strong bear bar – even though there’s a very strong rally,
ZH: 尽管这段上涨非常强势
38:58 - 39:01
EN: there’s a bear bar closing on its low, and it’s a breakout test.
ZH: 但它是突破后的回测，而且有阴线收在最低
39:01 - 39:07
EN: It’s testing that breakout point over there to the left,
ZH: 市场回测了左边的突破点，也就是那个低点， 现在正反转下跌
39:04 - 39:07
EN: which is this low, and it’s reversing down.
ZH: 市场回测了左边的突破点，也就是那个低点， 现在正反转下跌
39:07 - 39:15
EN: Traders know that when you have a strong rally in a Broad Bear Channel
ZH: 交易者知道，宽下降通道或震荡区间中的强势上涨， 很有可能是第2段陷阱
39:12 - 39:15
EN: or a Trading Range, it could very well be a 2nd Leg Trap.
ZH: 交易者知道，宽下降通道或震荡区间中的强势上涨， 很有可能是第2段陷阱
39:15 - 39:19
EN: We have a first leg up and then sideways and then a second leg up.
ZH: 第1段上涨，横盘，然后第2段上涨
39:19 - 39:23
EN: Unless it breaks above all the bars to the left, there’s a reasonable chance,
ZH: 除非它突破左边所有的K线，否则完全有可能
39:23 - 39:28
EN: maybe 50/50 chance it’s a 2nd Leg Trap, trapping traders into holding long,
ZH: 50%的概率，会是第2段陷阱
39:28 - 39:32
EN: hoping for a bull trend, or buying high, hoping for a bull trend.
ZH: 诱使多头相信这是上涨趋势，然后继续持有或追涨，
39:32 - 39:37
EN: But more likely it’s a second leg up in a Broad Bear Channel
ZH: 但更有可能的是，它是宽下降通道或震荡区间中的第2段上涨
39:36 - 39:42
EN: or in a Trading Range, and if it starts to reverse down,
ZH: 但更有可能的是，它是宽下降通道或震荡区间中的第2段上涨 如果开始反转下跌，多头必须离场，因为空头会入场做空
39:39 - 39:42
EN: you have to get out of longs because bears will be selling.
ZH: 如果开始反转下跌，多头必须离场，因为空头会入场做空
Slide 022
Time: 39:45
Bilingual Transcript
39:50 - 39:53
EN: If you’re buying new lows in a bear trend,
ZH: 如果你在下降趋势创新低的时候买入做多
39:53 - 39:56
EN: you have to get out if the bear breakout becomes too big.
ZH: 如果突破非常强势，你必须止损离场
39:58 - 40:01
EN: Let’s say you bought at that low
ZH: 假设你在那个低点挂单买入
40:01 - 40:05
EN: - which I would not do when the channel down is as strong as this is.
ZH: 我不会这么做，因为这段下跌非常强势
40:05 - 40:09
EN: I would not take that buy, but some bulls will buy because they’ll see,
ZH: 但有的多头会在这里买入，因为他们觉得
40:09 - 40:11
EN: well, we got a strong breakout here.
ZH: 之前也有强势的下跌
40:11 - 40:13
EN: They made money buying at that low.
ZH: 在那个低点买入是可以赚钱的
40:13 - 40:13
EN: Same here.
ZH: 还有这里
40:13 - 40:15
EN: Strong breakout to a new low.
ZH: 强势下跌创新低
40:15 - 40:18
EN: They made money buying at that low and lower,
ZH: 他们在前期低点及下方买入可以赚到钱
40:18 - 40:21
EN: and therefore if we have a strong breakout again,
ZH: 所以，如果再次遇到强势的跌破
40:21 - 40:24
EN: they can buy at the low and buy more lower,
ZH: 他们继续买入并逢低加仓
40:24 - 40:29
EN: and either avoid a loss or make a profit – if they scale in and use wide stops.
ZH: 也可以赚钱，或者至少不亏钱—— 通过宽止损和加仓的方式
40:29 - 40:35
EN: That’s an important “if.” That’s one of the reasons
ZH: 问题就出在“如果”， 这也是为什么新手不应该这么交易
40:32 - 40:35
EN: why this strategy is bad for beginners,
ZH: 问题就出在“如果”， 这也是为什么新手不应该这么交易
40:35 - 40:37
EN: because they will not manage the trade correctly.
ZH: 因为他们无法正确地管理
40:38 - 40:42
EN: Experienced traders will do it knowing that they’ll either make a profit or,
ZH: 经验丰富的交易员这样做，因为他们知道，
40:42 - 40:44
EN: if they scale in and manage their trade well,
ZH: 只要正确地管理，就能够赚到钱
40:44 - 40:47
EN: they’ll at least be able to avoid a loss.
ZH: 至少可以避免亏损
40:52 - 40:55
EN: Let’s say you buy with a limit order at that low,
ZH: 假设你在那个低点挂限价单买入
40:55 - 41:00
EN: and instead of using the height of the Trading Range for a stop,
ZH: 一些人选择不把止损放在震荡区间的MM目标位下方，
41:00 - 41:05
EN: a Measured Move down, some traders might use two times
ZH: 而是放在前期最大突破幅度的两倍下方
41:03 - 41:05
EN: the size of the biggest prior breakout.
ZH: 而是放在前期最大突破幅度的两倍下方
41:05 - 41:10
EN: Here’s a low, here’s the breakout, here’s a breakout below that low.
ZH: 最低点，到突破点，这是突破的幅度
41:14 - 41:17
EN: The biggest prior breakout was 26 ticks.
ZH: 之前最大的突破是26个ticks
41:17 - 41:22
EN: This low went 26 ticks below that low, and to give themselves a buffer,
ZH: 这段突破的幅度是26个ticks； 为了留出一定的缓冲空间
41:22 - 41:27
EN: they might place a stop at two times that down here.
ZH: 一些多头会把这个幅度翻倍
41:33 - 41:39
EN: This is a 26-tick breakout, and maybe they’ll put a stop at a 52-tick breakout,
ZH: 这个高度是26 ticks，他们把止损放在前期低点下方52 ticks
41:39 - 41:43
EN: thinking that the breakout probably will be similar to these two,
ZH: 预期突破幅度和之前差不多
41:43 - 41:48
EN: but they certainly don’t want to hold long
ZH: 如果超过之前的两倍，他们肯定就不想继续持有多单了
41:45 - 41:48
EN: if it’s more than twice as big as these two.
ZH: 如果超过之前的两倍，他们肯定就不想继续持有多单了
41:52 - 41:55
EN: Here, this breakout was 62 ticks below that low.
ZH: 这里，市场下跌了62 ticks
41:55 - 41:57
EN: You always have to have a reason to get out,
ZH: 你总归需要一个止损的计划
41:57 - 41:59
EN: and as long as the reason is reasonable,
ZH: 只要它是合理的、有意义的
41:59 - 42:02
EN: it makes sense, then it’s okay to take the loss.
ZH: 那么就可以止损离场
42:02 - 42:05
EN: You can always buy on the reversal up, like I said.
ZH: 之前也提到，你总是可以在反转上涨时再次买入
42:05 - 42:07
EN: A lot of traders will buy above a bull bar,
ZH: 很多交易者会在阳线上方买入
42:07 - 42:12
EN: knowing that limit order bulls will buy there and buy more above the bull bar.
ZH: 因为那些用限价单买入的多头会在阳线上方加仓
42:12 - 42:17
EN: So if you did get stopped out, you could immediately buy again above a bull bar,
ZH: 所以如果你真的被止损了，你可以在阳线上方再次买入
42:17 - 42:19
EN: expecting the market to get back up there.
ZH: 押注市场会涨回到那里
42:26 - 42:30
EN: Then you can exit on a test of the prior low or on a reversal down.
ZH: 然后在回测突破点，或者反转下跌的时候离场
42:30 - 42:36
EN: For example, if you bought at this low and exited on a stop at 52 ticks,
ZH: 例如，如果你在这个低点买入，然后亏52 ticks离场
42:36 - 42:42
EN: you lose 52 ticks – and then if you held and exited on a reversal down,
ZH: 然后在阳线上方再次买入，一直持有到反转下跌时离场
42:43 - 42:46
EN: you’d make 45 ticks on this trade.
ZH: 这一笔交易赚了45 ticks
42:46 - 42:51
EN: So you lose 52, you make 45, and you’d have a net loss of 7 ticks.
ZH: 亏了52 ticks，赚了45 ticks，最终总的亏损是7 ticks
Slide 023
Time: 42:55
Bilingual Transcript
42:56 - 43:00
EN: Many traders like to enter on second reversals.
ZH: 很多交易者喜欢在第2次反转时入场
43:00 - 43:01
EN: So we reversed up.
ZH: 这是第1次
43:01 - 43:04
EN: The bear trend tried to resume, and we’re trying to reverse up a second time,
ZH: 下降趋势尝试恢复，现在是第2次尝试反转
43:04 - 43:07
EN: so we have a small Micro Double Bottom.
ZH: 所以有一个小的双底
43:07 - 43:09
EN: That is a higher probability buy.
ZH: 在它上方买入的胜率更高
43:13 - 43:16
EN: Minimum scalp in the Emini, 4 ticks (1 point).
ZH: ES中剥头皮的最小目标是4 ticks（即1个点）
43:16 - 43:20
EN: Minimum reward is one to two times the Actual Risk,
ZH: 利润至少要是实际风险的一到两倍
43:20 - 43:23
EN: and if the probability is high, 60% or better,
ZH: 如果胜率很高，有60%会更高
43:23 - 43:26
EN: you can exit at one times that Actual Risk
ZH: 你可以在一倍实际风险处离场
43:26 - 43:31
EN: as long as you’re going for at least a 4 tick (1 point) scalp.
ZH: 同时利润至少应该有4 ticks（即1个点）
43:34 - 43:37
EN: Let’s say you bought on the reversal up.
ZH: 假设你在反转上涨时买入
43:37 - 43:42
EN: Although you can’t see this because I don’t have it zoomed in,
ZH: 这里我没有放大，所以看不清楚
43:42 - 43:44
EN: the Actual Risk was 4 ticks.
ZH: 实际风险是4 ticks
43:44 - 43:47
EN: Two times the Actual Risk was 8 ticks,
ZH: 那么两倍实际风险就是8 ticks
43:47 - 43:51
EN: and the market went high enough up for you to get your 8-tick scalp.
ZH: 反弹足够高，完全可以赚8 ticks离场
43:57 - 44:02
EN: If you’re looking at a channel where the rallies are 10 or 20 points tall
ZH: 如果你看到一个通道，反弹幅度有10或者20个点
44:03 - 44:06
EN: and two times your Actual Risk is only 2 points,
ZH: 而两倍实际风险只有2个点（8 ticks）
44:06 - 44:09
EN: that’s probably too small a profit, and you should be going for more money.
ZH: 那么这个利润就太小了，你应该争取更大的盈利
44:13 - 44:16
EN: For example, you might double it and go for a profit
ZH: 例如，把目标翻倍
44:16 - 44:18
EN: of 4 or 5 points and get out here.
ZH: 赚4~5个点离场
44:21 - 44:26
EN: Or you can get out at a 50% pullback of the most recent bear leg.
ZH: 也可以在反弹到左边下跌波段50%的时候离场
44:26 - 44:29
EN: So bear leg, 50% pullback, get out there.
ZH: 下跌波段，50%反弹，在那里离场
44:33 - 44:36
EN: Or you can look at this strong leg up.
ZH: 或者你看到这段反弹很强势
44:36 - 44:38
EN: Maybe the market will have a second leg up
ZH: 很有可能会有第2段上涨
44:38 - 44:41
EN: and then you can get out at this high, or on a reversal down.
ZH: 然后你在这个高点，或者在反转下跌时离场
Slide 024
Time: 44:45
Bilingual Transcript
44:46 - 44:50
EN: Bear trends need Lower Highs, especially major Lower Highs.
ZH: 下降趋势中高点不断降低，尤其是重要的高点
44:50 - 44:52
EN: If the market goes above a major Lower High,
ZH: 如果一个重要的高点被突破
44:52 - 44:56
EN: then it’s either in a bull trend or a Trading Range.
ZH: 那么它要么处于上涨趋势，要么处于震荡区间
44:56 - 45:00
EN: It’s no longer in a bear trend, and therefore you do not want to be holding short.
ZH: 既然不再是下降趋势，那么就不应该继续持有空头头寸
45:01 - 45:04
EN: You get out on a stop above a major Lower High.
ZH: 空头把止损放在重要高点的上方
45:05 - 45:11
EN: Whenever the market’s in a channel or a Trading Range, 2nd Leg Traps are common.
ZH: 在通道或震荡区间中，第2段陷阱很常见
45:11 - 45:13
EN: The market has a very strong second leg and you think
ZH: 往往会有非常强势的第2段上涨或下跌，
45:13 - 45:16
EN: that the market’s converting from a channel into a trend,
ZH: 让你以为市场要进入强趋势了
45:16 - 45:21
EN: but it traps traders into buying too high if it’s a 2nd Leg Trap up,
ZH: 但第2段上涨的陷阱诱使交易者追涨
45:21 - 45:25
EN: or selling too low if it’s a strong second leg down.
ZH: 第2段下跌的陷阱诱使交易者追空
45:26 - 45:30
EN: Because the reversals up go for a lot of bars and cover a lot of points,
ZH: 宽下降通道中，反弹幅度很大，持续很久
45:30 - 45:34
EN: bulls can buy below bars and make money.
ZH: 多头逢低买入也能赚钱
45:34 - 45:39
EN: More experienced traders will use wide stops and scale in.
ZH: 经验丰富的交易员会使用比较宽的止损并加仓
45:43 - 45:44
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
45:44 - 45:46
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程
45:46 - 45:50
EN: This is the fourth of five videos on trading Broad Bear Channels.
ZH: 如何交易宽下降通道的第4节课，就先讲到这里
Slide 025
Time: 45:53
Bilingual Transcript
No transcript segment aligned to this slide.