al-brooks-course
40E - Entering Late in Trends
Raw transcript and slide notes for 40E - Entering Late in Trends.
Overview
- Slides: 19
- Transcript segments: 375
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课
00:05 - 00:10
EN: This is the fifth of five videos on entering late in trends.
ZH: 这是在趋势后期入场的第5节课（共5节）
Slide 001
Time: 00:12
Bilingual Transcript
00:14 - 00:17
EN: There are several things that I want to talk about today.
ZH: 今天我有好几个话题想讲 （注：看到目录有这么多内容，译者感到压力山大）
00:18 - 00:22
EN: First, if there’s a very strong breakout late in a bull trend,
ZH: 首先，如果在上涨趋势的后期出现非常大的大阳线
00:22 - 00:25
EN: a lot of traders will fade it (bet against it)
ZH: 很多交易者会去做空
00:25 - 00:28
EN: because it’s more likely a climactic end of the trend
ZH: 因为它更有可能是趋势末尾的抢购高潮
00:28 - 00:30
EN: than the start of an even stronger leg up.
ZH: 而不是一个更强的上涨趋势的开始
00:31 - 00:36
EN: “Always In Short” means that you believe prices are going lower,
ZH: “单边下跌”意味着你认为价格会继续走低
00:36 - 00:38
EN: and therefore you should look to sell.
ZH: 因此你应该考虑卖出
00:38 - 00:42
EN: A lot of times traders don’t pay much attention to a Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 很多时候，交易者不会太在意窄震荡区间
00:42 - 00:45
EN: Sometimes people will refer to it as “noise,”
ZH: 有的人称之为“噪音”
00:45 - 00:48
EN: but the market is always giving information if you pay attention
ZH: 但如果你注意观察的话，市场总是在传递信息
00:48 - 00:55
EN: to what it’s trying to tell you, and sometimes you can get
ZH: 而且有时震荡区间会演变成非常大的反转
00:52 - 00:55
EN: a very major reversal out of a Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 而且有时震荡区间会演变成非常大的反转
00:55 - 00:59
EN: For example, you can get a Double Top within the Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 例如，假设窄震荡区间中出现了一个双顶
00:59 - 01:03
EN: If it’s a Lower High, it can lead to a Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 如果高点降低的话，它有可能会发展成高点降低的大反转
01:03 - 01:10
EN: And the opposite is true at the bottom: you can get a Double Bottom
ZH: 底部反转也是一样：如果窄区间的下沿出现了一个双底， 可能会发展成非常大的上涨趋势
01:07 - 01:10
EN: within a Tight Trading Range, and it could lead to a very big bull trend.
ZH: 底部反转也是一样：如果窄区间的下沿出现了一个双底， 可能会发展成非常大的上涨趋势
01:12 - 01:15
EN: Just like a strong breakout at the top of a bull trend
ZH: 正如上涨趋势后期的大阳线是抢购高潮，
01:15 - 01:26
EN: often is a climactic end to the trend, if you’re late in a bear trend
ZH: 如果在下降趋势的后期，突然出现非常大的大阴线， 那么它大概率是趋势末尾的抛售高潮，
01:19 - 01:26
EN: and you suddenly get a very strong big bear breakout,
ZH: 如果在下降趋势的后期，突然出现非常大的大阴线， 那么它大概率是趋势末尾的抛售高潮，
01:22 - 01:26
EN: it’s probably going to be the climactic end of the trend
ZH: 如果在下降趋势的后期，突然出现非常大的大阴线， 那么它大概率是趋势末尾的抛售高潮，
01:26 - 01:29
EN: rather than the beginning of an even stronger bear leg.
ZH: 而不是更强的下跌波段的开始
01:30 - 01:35
EN: Any time you have a Buy Climax, it always ends at resistance.
ZH: 所有的抢购高潮，总是在某个阻力位结束
01:35 - 01:39
EN: Any time you have a Sell Climax, it always ends at support.
ZH: 所有的抛售高潮，总是在某个支撑位结束
Slide 002
Time: 01:40
Bilingual Transcript
01:44 - 01:46
EN: The market’s in a bull trend
ZH: 市场处于上涨趋势中
01:46 - 01:48
EN: and then it entered a pretty Tight Trading Range here.
ZH: 然后进入了很窄的震荡区间
01:55 - 02:02
EN: Once the market goes sideways in a very tight range like this
ZH: 一旦市场在这么小的幅度内横盘超过10根K线， 我就把它看作是窄震荡区间
01:59 - 02:02
EN: for about 10 bars, I refer to it as a Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 一旦市场在这么小的幅度内横盘超过10根K线， 我就把它看作是窄震荡区间
02:02 - 02:06
EN: Initially it’s a pullback and the odds are it’s going higher,
ZH: 一开始，都把它看作是回调，大概率会继续上涨
02:06 - 02:11
EN: but every bar that gets added to it makes the market closer and closer to 50/50
ZH: 但随着区间内的K线越来越多，概率越来越接近50对50
02:11 - 02:14
EN: – 50% chance the bulls will get trend resumption up,
ZH: ——50%的概率，趋势恢复上涨
02:14 - 02:19
EN: 50% chance the bears will get trend reversal down.
ZH: 50%的概率，趋势反转下跌
Slide 003
Time: 02:20
Bilingual Transcript
02:26 - 02:28
EN: The market is rallying, forming Higher Highs,
ZH: 市场正在上涨，形成更高的高点
02:28 - 02:32
EN: and it tried to get a Wedge Top here and then a Micro Double Top,
ZH: 尝试在这里形成一个楔形顶，然后是一个小双顶
02:32 - 02:35
EN: and it reversed down – yet it immediately reversed back up.
ZH: 开始下跌——但立刻又反转上涨
02:35 - 02:39
EN: A Micro Double Bottom, 2 bull bars closing on their highs.
ZH: 小双底，两根阳线收在最高
02:39 - 02:43
EN: This is probably a failed Wedge Top, a Higher Low in a bull channel,
ZH: 这个楔形顶大概率反转失败了； 上涨通道中低点抬高
02:43 - 02:46
EN: and the market probably will continue higher.
ZH: 大概率会继续上涨
Slide 004
Time: 02:50
Bilingual Transcript
02:54 - 02:59
EN: In general if you have a reasonable top and the market instead goes higher,
ZH: 通常来说，如果有一个合理的顶部，但市场继续突破
02:59 - 03:02
EN: you’re going to get at least two legs up – one, pullback, two.
ZH: 那么至少会有两段上涨——1，回调，2
03:02 - 03:03
EN: That’s the minimum goal.
ZH: 这是最低目标
03:04 - 03:08
EN: And this is the best looking bull bar in the past 10 bars or so.
ZH: 它是过去10来根K线中最漂亮的大阳线
03:09 - 03:13
EN: That makes you wonder, is it going to be a climactic end of a trend?
ZH: 这让你开始怀疑：他是不是趋势末尾的抢购高潮？
03:14 - 03:17
EN: Climaxes do not mean reversal into an opposite trend.
ZH: 高潮不代表会反转变成相反的趋势
03:17 - 03:21
EN: Most of the time, the climax simply means the bulls are exhausted.
ZH: 大多数时候，高潮只是代表多头暂时累了
03:21 - 03:25
EN: They’ll take profits and then they’ll wait 5 or 10 bars to see what happens.
ZH: 他们止盈之后，会等待5~10根K线，看看会发生什么
03:25 - 03:27
EN: They’ll try to get trend resumption up,
ZH: 他们会尝试让趋势恢复上涨
03:27 - 03:31
EN: but sometimes they’ll get overwhelmed and we’ll get trend reversal down.
ZH: 但有时候被空头的力量压倒，那么趋势就会反转下跌
03:33 - 03:38
EN: Unusual strength late in a bull trend, more likely a climactic end of the trend
ZH: 上涨趋势后期异常强势的大阳线， 更有可能导致趋势结束
03:38 - 03:40
EN: and the market will go sideways,
ZH: 然后市场开始横盘
03:40 - 03:43
EN: and 40% of the time you’ll get a climactic reversal.
ZH: 40%的时候会出现高潮后的反转
03:47 - 03:48
EN: The bears tried to get a Wedge here.
ZH: 空头之前尝试在这里形成一个楔形顶
03:48 - 03:50
EN: Now they’re trying to get another Wedge here.
ZH: 现在他们再次尝试形成楔形顶
03:51 - 03:53
EN: You’ve got a Buy Climax and a Wedge Top.
ZH: 抢购高潮，加上楔形顶
03:56 - 04:00
EN: Also, it’s a Measured Move up from the top of this Trading Range.
ZH: 此外，这个震荡区间的MM目标位也在这里
04:00 - 04:01
EN: We have a very strong bull leg.
ZH: 这里有一段非常强的上涨
04:01 - 04:06
EN: We tried to reverse down twice above it, and we continued up.
ZH: 突破之后，两次尝试反转下跌，但继续上涨
Slide 005
Time: 04:10
Bilingual Transcript
04:13 - 04:16
EN: Aggressive bears, they’ll sell that bull close,
ZH: 激进的空头，他们会在大阳线的收盘做空
04:16 - 04:19
EN: betting that maybe we’ll get a small second leg up,
ZH: 押注就算有小的第2段上涨
04:19 - 04:24
EN: but we’ll probably get a test back down
ZH: 但大概率会在短时间内回调到抢购高潮的起涨点
04:21 - 04:24
EN: to the bottom of this Buy Climax before very long.
ZH: 但大概率会在短时间内回调到抢购高潮的起涨点
04:24 - 04:26
EN: And you can see that’s what took place over here.
ZH: 也就是这里所发生的事情
04:28 - 04:32
EN: Other bears will wait for the bar after the Buy Climax bar,
ZH: 一些空头会等待抢购高潮之后的跟随
04:32 - 04:35
EN: and then either sell its close or sell below its low
ZH: 然后在它的收盘做空，或者在它的低点下方做空
04:35 - 04:43
EN: - or if there’s a bear bar within a bar or two, the bears might sell with a stop
ZH: ——如果在一两根K线内有阴线， 空头会在那根阴线的低点下方卖出做空
04:40 - 04:48
EN: below the low of that bear bar, looking for at a minimum a test of the bottom
ZH: ——如果在一两根K线内有阴线， 空头会在那根阴线的低点下方卖出做空 押注至少回调到抢购高潮的起涨点， 甚至可能回测楔形通道的起点
04:44 - 04:48
EN: of the Buy Climax bar, and possibly a test down to the bottom of the Wedge.
ZH: 押注至少回调到抢购高潮的起涨点， 甚至可能回测楔形通道的起点
04:48 - 04:50
EN: Three pushes up, one, two, three.
ZH: 3次向上的推动——1，2，3
04:50 - 04:58
EN: You’ll have some bears who simply will place a limit order to sell
ZH: 一些空头会直接在上涨通道的上沿挂限价卖单， 押注至少会有一些回调
04:54 - 04:58
EN: at the top of the channel, betting that we’ll get at least a pullback.
ZH: 一些空头会直接在上涨通道的上沿挂限价卖单， 押注至少会有一些回调
05:02 - 05:04
EN: If you take that short, where’s your stop?
ZH: 如果在这里做空，止损应该放在哪里？
05:05 - 05:08
EN: Well, one reasonable place is a little bit more than a Measured Move up.
ZH: 一个合理的止损位置是放在MM目标位的上方
05:08 - 05:12
EN: The bottom to the top of the Buy Climax, there’s your Measured Move,
ZH: 把抢购高潮的高度往上翻一倍，MM目标位在黄线这里
05:12 - 05:16
EN: that yellow line, and you put your stop just a little bit above
ZH: 你把止损放在它的上方
05:16 - 05:20
EN: - just in case we get one more small leg up after this bull breakout.
ZH: 以防在抢购高潮之后，还有一段小的上涨
05:21 - 05:24
EN: Very often when you get a Buy Climax, you get a pullback
ZH: 在抢购高潮之后，经常会略微回调，
05:24 - 05:28
EN: and you get one more leg up before you get the reversal.
ZH: 第2段上涨，然后再反转下跌
Slide 006
Time: 05:30
Bilingual Transcript
05:32 - 05:35
EN: Minimum target always is the bottom of the Buy Climax.
ZH: 做空的最低目标永远都是抢购高潮的起涨点
05:35 - 05:38
EN: Whenever you have any kind of a Buy Climax,
ZH: 不管是什么样的抢购高潮
05:38 - 05:42
EN: the first target for the reversal is the bottom of that climax.
ZH: 反转的第1个目标就是它的起涨点
05:42 - 05:48
EN: If it’s a 2 or 3 bar Buy Climax, the target is still the bottom of the climax.
ZH: 如果是2或3根K线的抢购高潮，目标仍然是高潮的起涨点
05:54 - 05:58
EN: If you’re a bear and you shorted for any reason up here
ZH: 如果你是空头，并且你在这里做空了
05:58 - 06:03
EN: and you’re looking for a test down to this low and you’re risking
ZH: 你的目标是回测这个起涨点
06:03 - 06:09
EN: about as much as you’re hoping to gain – in other words,
ZH: 你承担的风险和希望赚到的利润差不多—— 也就是说，风险等于回报——
06:07 - 06:16
EN: your risk is equal to your reward – you can only take that short
ZH: 你承担的风险和希望赚到的利润差不多—— 也就是说，风险等于回报—— 所以这笔交易的前提是，你认为至少有60%的概率， 会先跌到目标位，而不是打掉止损
06:10 - 06:16
EN: if you believe there’s at least a 60% chance
ZH: 所以这笔交易的前提是，你认为至少有60%的概率， 会先跌到目标位，而不是打掉止损
06:13 - 06:16
EN: that you’ll make your profit before your stop is hit.
ZH: 所以这笔交易的前提是，你认为至少有60%的概率， 会先跌到目标位，而不是打掉止损
06:16 - 06:19
EN: Otherwise you cannot take the trade.
ZH: 否则你就不能这么做
06:19 - 06:26
EN: Any trade where the reward is equal to the risk is not worth taking
ZH: 除非胜率至少有60%， 否则任何风险等于利润的交易都不值得做
06:23 - 06:26
EN: unless you believe the probability is at least 60%.
ZH: 除非胜率至少有60%， 否则任何风险等于利润的交易都不值得做
06:26 - 06:30
EN: In this particular circumstances, I think it’s a reasonable bet,
ZH: 在这个特定的案例中，我认为这是一笔合理的交易
06:30 - 06:33
EN: and you might end up getting a swing down
ZH: 而且最终可能会赚到一个下跌波段
06:33 - 06:37
EN: - although I think it’s too early to take a swing short here.
ZH: ——尽管现在押注下跌波段还为时尚早
06:37 - 06:40
EN: The channel up is so tight, the first reversal down is minor
ZH: 这么窄的上涨通道，第1次下跌只是小反转
06:40 - 06:44
EN: and the best the bears probably will get is a Trading Range.
ZH: 最多就是变成震荡区间而已
06:44 - 06:48
EN: Once it’s in a Trading Range, then you can look for a major reversal.
ZH: 不过，一旦进入震荡区间，你就可以寻找大反转的机会了
06:53 - 06:56
EN: If you look at the chart and you believe the prices are going lower,
ZH: 如果你看着K线图，认为价格会继续下跌
Slide 007
Time: 06:55
Bilingual Transcript
06:56 - 06:59
EN: then you probably believe the market’s Always In Short.
ZH: 说明你可能认为市场处于单边下跌
06:59 - 07:02
EN: Whenever I use the term “Always In Short,”
ZH: “单边下跌”这个词的意思是
07:02 - 07:06
EN: if I had to be in the market at this instant, I would choose to be short
ZH: 如果我必须立刻选择一个方向交易，我会选择做空
07:06 - 07:11
EN: because by saying “Always In Short,” I believe prices are going lower.
ZH: 因为我认为价格还会下跌
Slide 008
Time: 07:12
Bilingual Transcript
07:17 - 07:22
EN: At this point we have a bull channel – a Wedge rally is a bull channel
ZH: 在这个时候，市场处于上涨通道——楔形的上涨通道
07:22 - 07:25
EN: - and we have a break below the trend line.
ZH: 这里跌破了上涨趋势线
07:25 - 07:26
EN: Not much Selling Pressure.
ZH: 并没有很大的卖压
07:26 - 07:29
EN: The bears are hoping this is a Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 空头希望它是高点降低的大反转
07:29 - 07:34
EN: Since the pattern is small, only maybe 5 bars down, 5 bars up,
ZH: 由于结构很小，只有5根K线下跌，5根K线上涨
07:34 - 07:37
EN: or you could say 10 bars down and only 3 bars up,
ZH: 或者你可以说10根K线下跌，3根K线上涨
07:37 - 07:41
EN: it’s probably a minor reversal and the market will have to go sideways more.
ZH: 所以它大概率只能是小反转，市场需要横盘更长时间
07:41 - 07:47
EN: However, if you then get a Double Top in the Tight Trading Range
ZH: 然而，如果5~10根K线之后， 在窄震荡区间内形成了双顶
07:46 - 07:54
EN: 5 or 10 bars later, the probability is 40%
ZH: 然而，如果5~10根K线之后， 在窄震荡区间内形成了双顶 40%的概率会有两段下跌——1，反弹，2
07:50 - 07:54
EN: that you’re going to get two legs down – one, pullback, two
ZH: 40%的概率会有两段下跌——1，反弹，2
07:54 - 07:56
EN: - and the math is very good for the bears,
ZH: ——所以空头在数学上是具有优势的
07:56 - 07:58
EN: especially when they have a decent sell signal bar.
ZH: 尤其是有不错的做空信号K线的时候
07:58 - 08:02
EN: Traders will sell below the low of that bar, put a stop just above,
ZH: 空头会在那根K线的低点下方卖出，止损就放在上面
08:02 - 08:08
EN: and they have a 40% chance of a reward
ZH: 他们有40%的概率，能赚到至少两倍于风险的利润
08:05 - 08:08
EN: that is at least twice as big as their risk.
ZH: 他们有40%的概率，能赚到至少两倍于风险的利润
08:08 - 08:11
EN: This, I think, is a minor reversal.
ZH: 这里，我认为大概率只是小反转
08:11 - 08:15
EN: There simply are not enough bars in the pattern, not enough bars down,
ZH: 因为没有足够多的K线，没有足够多的下跌K线
08:15 - 08:18
EN: not enough bars up, to expect a major reversal at this point.
ZH: 也没有足够多的上涨K线，无法期待一个大的反转
08:19 - 08:25
EN: However, at this point, now we’ve had 20 bars breaking below the bull channel,
ZH: 然而，在这个时候，跌破上涨通道已经20根K线了
08:25 - 08:28
EN: and that is enough bars for a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 有足够多的K线来形成大反转结构
08:28 - 08:32
EN: And whenever I see a Tight Trading Range that has a Double Top
ZH: 每当我在窄震荡区间内看到双顶，
08:32 - 08:35
EN: and the Tight Trading Range is 10 or 20 bars long,
ZH: 而且窄区间已经持续了20根K线
08:35 - 08:39
EN: and the space between the two tops is 5 or more bars,
ZH: 双顶的两个高点之间间隔至少5根K线
08:39 - 08:45
EN: and I have a good sell signal bar, to me that is a reasonable sell setup.
ZH: 并且有较好的做空信号K线的话，对我而言这是一个合理的做空机会
08:45 - 08:50
EN: A 40% chance of two legs down and a reward much greater than the risk.
ZH: 40%的概率有两段下跌，利润远大于风险
08:54 - 08:56
EN: Strong bear breakout.
ZH: 强势向下跌破
08:56 - 08:59
EN: Close below the low of the past 20 bars or so.
ZH: 收盘价低于过去20根K线的最低点
08:59 - 09:04
EN: The odds are high that we’ll get a second leg down – one, pullback, two.
ZH: 很有可能会有第2段下跌——1，反弹，2
09:04 - 09:07
EN: You can argue that it’s a failed bear breakout,
ZH: 你可以说它是一次失败的空头突破 （注：因为跟随很糟糕）
09:07 - 09:12
EN: and you could therefore get out of shorts above this bull bar.
ZH: 所以你可以在这根阳线上方买入回补
09:12 - 09:16
EN: But if you do and you correctly believe that the market’s
ZH: 离场之后，如果你仍然认为市场可能处于单边下跌
09:15 - 09:20
EN: probably still Always In Short, you have to be thinking
ZH: 离场之后，如果你仍然认为市场可能处于单边下跌 那么就要考虑在阴线的低点下方再次入场做空
09:18 - 09:20
EN: about selling again below a bear bar.
ZH: 那么就要考虑在阴线的低点下方再次入场做空
09:20 - 09:22
EN: Here’s a bear bar, so you would sell again
ZH: 这里有一根阴线，所以你需要再次卖出做空
09:22 - 09:26
EN: there had you exited your shorts above that bull bar.
ZH: 如果刚才你在那个阳线上方离场了的话
09:31 - 09:35
EN: At the close of this bar – a big, big bear bar closing
ZH: 在这根K线收盘时——超级大的大阴线，
09:35 - 09:39
EN: below the low of the past 20 bars, and the market was in BreakOut Mode
ZH: 收盘价低于过去20根K线的低点， 而且之前市场处于突破模式——
09:39 - 09:42
EN: for either a trend reversal down or trend resumption up
ZH: 要么反转下跌，要么恢复上涨
09:42 - 09:46
EN: - the odds at this point on the close of that bar is that we’re going lower.
ZH: 在它收盘的那一刻，更大的概率是反转下跌
09:46 - 09:51
EN: It’s okay to sell that close, put a stop above the top of this leg down,
ZH: 可以在它的收盘卖出做空， 然后把止损放在这个起跌点的上方
09:51 - 09:54
EN: and then look for other reasons to sell as well.
ZH: 然后等待后续其它的做空入场点
09:54 - 09:57
EN: We have two legs up – one, pullback, two.
ZH: 两段反弹——1，回调，2
09:57 - 10:00
EN: You sell below that bear bar, especially since it did not get
ZH: 可以在那个阴线的低点下方卖出，
10:00 - 10:03
EN: above the top of this initial leg down.
ZH: 尤其是因为反弹没有超过这个起跌点
10:04 - 10:06
EN: And then you could start selling closes.
ZH: 然后你可以开始卖收盘
10:06 - 10:08
EN: You could sell that close or this close or any of those close.
ZH: 你可以在它，它，或它，或任何一根K线的收盘卖出做空
10:08 - 10:11
EN: You’re not going to take all of those sell signals,
ZH: 并不是说每个入场点都要加仓
10:11 - 10:15
EN: but they’re all reasonable with a stop above the top of the bear leg,
ZH: 但它们都是合理的入场点， 止损放在下跌波段的起跌点上方
10:15 - 10:18
EN: right above the high of that bear reversal bar.
ZH: 就在这根反转阴线的高点上方
Slide 009
Time: 10:20
Bilingual Transcript
10:23 - 10:27
EN: Again, 40% chance you’re going to get two legs down,
ZH: 再讲一遍，40%的概率会有两段下跌
10:27 - 10:30
EN: and the legs down will be big enough for a swing trade.
ZH: 而且跌幅足够大，可以做波段交易
10:35 - 10:39
EN: Testing the bottom of the Wedge, that is a magnet.
ZH: 回测楔形通道的起点，那是一个磁铁
10:39 - 10:42
EN: Also, we went sideways here; that is a magnet.
ZH: 另外，之前在这里横盘（注：说明多空双方都认为这个价格合理） 所以它也是一个磁铁
10:42 - 10:44
EN: And we broke above this Trading Range.
ZH: 这个震荡区间被突破了
10:44 - 10:48
EN: We have a bull breakout here, so that high is also a magnet.
ZH: 所以这个突破点也是一个磁铁
10:48 - 10:56
EN: So there’s a lot of support in this area, and therefore bears will start
ZH: 在这个区域有很多支撑，因此空头开始止盈， 多头开始入场
10:53 - 10:56
EN: to take profits and bulls will start to buy.
ZH: 在这个区域有很多支撑，因此空头开始止盈， 多头开始入场
10:56 - 10:59
EN: You can see we’re starting to get tails on the bottoms of the bars,
ZH: 因此K线的底部开始有长下影线
10:59 - 11:02
EN: and that means traders are buying into the close of the bar.
ZH: 说明很多交易者在临近K线收盘时买入
11:02 - 11:06
EN: Bulls are buying for scalps and bears are buying back some of their shorts.
ZH: 多头买入剥头皮，空头买入回补止盈
Slide 010
Time: 11:10
Bilingual Transcript
11:11 - 11:16
EN: I mentioned that a Tight Trading Range can be a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 之前提到，窄震荡区间也可以形成大反转
Slide 011
Time: 11:17
Bilingual Transcript
11:19 - 11:22
EN: We have a bull trend and then a Tight Trading Range.
ZH: 上涨趋势，然后进入窄震荡区间
11:22 - 11:24
EN: The market is neutral.
ZH: 此时市场是中性的
11:24 - 11:28
EN: Whenever the market is in a Trading Range or a Tight Trading Range
ZH: 上涨趋势之后，如果市场进入震荡区间，或窄震荡区间
11:28 - 11:35
EN: after a bull trend, probability of trend resumption up
ZH: 趋势恢复上涨的概率，和反转下跌的概率， 就变成了50对50
11:32 - 11:35
EN: versus trend resumption down is about 50/50.
ZH: 趋势恢复上涨的概率，和反转下跌的概率， 就变成了50对50
11:35 - 11:39
EN: I always think it’s slightly higher for the resumption traders,
ZH: 左边趋势恢复的概率总是略微更高一点点
11:39 - 11:42
EN: that it’s slightly more likely the bull trend will resume.
ZH: 所以多头具有微弱的优势
11:42 - 11:45
EN: But every bar that gets added to the range
ZH: 但随着区间内的K线越来越多
11:45 - 11:48
EN: makes the probability closer and closer to 50/50.
ZH: 概率越来越接近50对50
11:54 - 11:59
EN: We have a small Double Top in a Tight Trading Range, and we have enough bars
ZH: 在窄震荡区间内形成了小双顶，而且有足够多的K线
11:59 - 12:03
EN: - more than 10 bars in the Tight Trading Range – for traders to start
ZH: ——窄震荡区间内有超过10根K线——
12:03 - 12:07
EN: to consider the possibility of a Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 交易者开始考虑大反转的可能性
12:08 - 12:11
EN: Again, I want at least 10 bars in the Tight Trading Range,
ZH: 再次强调，我希望窄震荡区间内至少有10根K线
12:11 - 12:15
EN: I want at least 5 bars between the two tops in the Tight Trading Range,
ZH: 我希望双顶的两个高点之间至少间隔5根K线
12:15 - 12:18
EN: and I prefer the bear bar closing on its low
ZH: 最好有阴线收在最低
12:18 - 12:21
EN: or having no more than a 1 tick tail below.
ZH: 下影线的长度不超过1个tick
12:21 - 12:25
EN: If I have that combination, it’s a reasonable swing short looking
ZH: 如果看到这样的组合，我认为是合理的波段做空机会
12:25 - 12:29
EN: for two legs down, putting a stop just above the high of that sell signal bar.
ZH: 预期有两段下跌，把止损放在那个做空信号K线的高点上方
Slide 012
Time: 12:35
Bilingual Transcript
12:37 - 12:41
EN: The market would not be doing this if the bulls were very aggressive.
ZH: 如果多头真的很强势，市场就不会横盘这么久了
12:41 - 12:46
EN: They’re clearly not willing to hold, and looks like they’re buying
ZH: 多头显然没有那么坚定地持有， 看起来他们只是逢低买入，然后剥头皮赚快钱
12:45 - 12:50
EN: below bars and scalping, and the bears were selling
ZH: 多头显然没有那么坚定地持有， 看起来他们只是逢低买入，然后剥头皮赚快钱 而空头在前1根K线的高点挂单卖出，剥头皮赚快钱
12:48 - 12:50
EN: at the high of the prior bar and scalping.
ZH: 而空头在前1根K线的高点挂单卖出，剥头皮赚快钱
12:54 - 12:56
EN: The bulls have changed what they’re doing.
ZH: 多头改变了他们的行为
12:56 - 13:00
EN: Instead of buying closes, holding for higher prices,
ZH: 不再是买收盘、坚定持有、等待上涨
13:00 - 13:04
EN: now instead of looking for swing buys, they’re looking for scalps.
ZH: 他们不再押注有上涨的波段，而是开始剥头皮
13:04 - 13:08
EN: And therefore the market is much less bullish than it was earlier.
ZH: 因此现在的市场远没有之前那么看涨
13:14 - 13:22
EN: They’ll also keep buying with stops above bars, hoping that this is a bull flag
ZH: 也有多头继续在K线高点上方用突破买单入场， 希望这是一个牛旗，能够向上突破、恢复上涨趋势
13:18 - 13:22
EN: and that we’re breaking out and getting trend resumption up.
ZH: 也有多头继续在K线高点上方用突破买单入场， 希望这是一个牛旗，能够向上突破、恢复上涨趋势
13:22 - 13:26
EN: But at some point they give up, and that’s what took place here.
ZH: 但在某个时刻他们放弃了，就比如这里
13:26 - 13:28
EN: The bulls gave up.
ZH: 多头放弃了
13:28 - 13:31
EN: This is the bulls finally selling out of their longs
ZH: 多头最终卖掉了他们的仓位
13:31 - 13:35
EN: and then waiting for at least a second leg down before looking to buy again.
ZH: 并且至少等待第2段下跌之后，才会考虑是否再次买入
13:38 - 13:40
EN: The bears understand what the bulls are doing.
ZH: 空头知道多头在做什么
13:40 - 13:43
EN: They know the bulls are not aggressively buying,
ZH: 他们知道多头不再那么积极地买入
13:43 - 13:46
EN: and they know a lot of the bulls who bought below bars will sell
ZH: 他们知道多头逢低买入后，会在高位立刻卖出止盈
13:46 - 13:50
EN: above to take profits, and the bears will sell above bars,
ZH: 所以空头也在上方挂单卖出
13:50 - 13:55
EN: betting that they’ll either get a scalp down to the bottom
ZH: 押注至少跌到区间底部，可以剥头皮， 甚至有反转下跌的波段机会
13:52 - 13:55
EN: of the range or possibly a reversal down.
ZH: 押注至少跌到区间底部，可以剥头皮， 甚至有反转下跌的波段机会
13:55 - 13:58
EN: Remember, bull trend, Tight Trading Range
ZH: 上涨趋势，窄震荡区间
13:58 - 14:03
EN: - about a 50% chance that the bears will get a reversal down,
ZH: 大约50%的概率会反转下跌
14:03 - 14:07
EN: and therefore they’ll start selling either for scalps or for swings.
ZH: 所以空头开始卖出做空剥头皮，或者做波段交易
14:12 - 14:16
EN: The bulls who bought bull flags – for example, two legs down, one, pullback,
ZH: 在牛旗买入的多头，比如两段回调——1，反弹，2
14:16 - 14:23
EN: two, and they buy with a stop above that bar or they buy with a stop
ZH: 他们在这根K线，或这个小阳线的高点上方买入， 但是入场之后，后续的跟随非常糟糕
14:19 - 14:23
EN: above this little bull bar – and then they see terrible follow-through
ZH: 他们在这根K线，或这个小阳线的高点上方买入， 但是入场之后，后续的跟随非常糟糕
14:23 - 14:26
EN: after their entry, they’re going to be quick to get out
ZH: 他们只能快速离场
14:26 - 14:29
EN: because they’re afraid that instead of bull trend resumption,
ZH: 因为上涨趋势可能不会继续了
14:29 - 14:33
EN: we’ll either go sideways or possibly even reverse down.
ZH: 而是要么横盘，要么甚至反转下跌
14:33 - 14:38
EN: The bulls are exiting quickly after bad stop entry buys.
ZH: 入场之后发现情况不对，多头迅速止损离场
14:44 - 14:50
EN: At some point in this particular case, you had too many bears selling.
ZH: 直到看到这根大阴线，你才知道有非常多的空头在卖出
14:48 - 14:50
EN: You don’t know that until this point.
ZH: 直到看到这根大阴线，你才知道有非常多的空头在卖出
14:51 - 14:55
EN: You do know there are not enough bulls buying because we’re getting buy signals,
ZH: 但你知道没有很多多头在买入， 因为在做多信号K线之后，
14:55 - 14:58
EN: but the market’s not going up, so not enough bulls buying.
ZH: 市场没有继续上涨，说明没有多头愿意追涨
14:58 - 14:59
EN: The bulls and bears are balanced.
ZH: 多空双方的力量变得平衡
14:59 - 15:01
EN: And here the bulls gave up.
ZH: 然后这里多头放弃了
15:01 - 15:04
EN: They just decided that they are unable.
ZH: 他们知道上涨无望
15:04 - 15:08
EN: After repeated attempts to resume the bull trend, they just give up
ZH: 多次尝试恢复上涨趋势之后，他们终于放弃
15:08 - 15:12
EN: and decide that it’s too high to buy, and they’ll wait and buy lower.
ZH: 认为现在价格抬高了，不能追涨， 需要等待回调，在更低的位置买入
15:12 - 15:18
EN: And this is where the bulls are exiting, and the bears know that
ZH: 这是多头离场的地方，空头知道多头在放弃， 所以他们大量卖空
15:16 - 15:18
EN: the bulls are giving up, and therefore the bears are selling,
ZH: 这是多头离场的地方，空头知道多头在放弃， 所以他们大量卖空
15:18 - 15:20
EN: expecting two legs down.
ZH: 预期会有两段下跌
15:25 - 15:28
EN: I talked about a late breakout in a bull trend being a climax;
ZH: 之前讲到，上涨趋势后期的大阳线是抢购高潮
15:28 - 15:32
EN: if you have a bear trend and then you have a strong bear breakout,
ZH: 同样，在下降趋势的后期，如果出现了很大的大阴线，
15:32 - 15:34
EN: that too is probably a Sell Climax.
ZH: 那么它很可能是抛售高潮
Slide 013
Time: 15:35
Bilingual Transcript
15:41 - 15:45
EN: Every bear bar, every series of bear bars, is a breakout and a climax.
ZH: 每根阴线，每一系列阴线，都是突破和高潮
15:45 - 15:50
EN: So this is climactic selling, as is this, as is this and this.
ZH: 所以它是抛售高潮，还有这里，这里，和这里
15:51 - 15:53
EN: Here we have a series of Sell Climaxes.
ZH: 这里有一系列的抛售高潮
15:53 - 15:56
EN: This is also a Sell Climax, as is this, and so is that,
ZH: 它也是抛售高潮，还有这里，这里
15:56 - 15:58
EN: even though this one’s in a bull trend.
ZH: 尽管这个处于上涨趋势中
16:04 - 16:08
EN: Now, look at this bear bar and compare it to all the other bear bars.
ZH: 现在，观察这根大阴线，并且把它和其它的阴线作比较
16:08 - 16:11
EN: What do you notice about it? Well, it’s a big bear bar.
ZH: 你观察到了什么区别？ 它的体积很大
16:11 - 16:15
EN: In fact, if you look back, it’s the biggest bear bar in the entire bear trend,
ZH: 事实上，它是整个下降趋势中体积最大的大阴线
16:15 - 16:18
EN: and the bear trend has gone on for 30 bars.
ZH: 而此时下降趋势已经持续超过30根K线了
16:18 - 16:23
EN: Whenever you have the biggest bear bar occurring 20 or more bars into a trend,
ZH: 如果趋势持续超过20根K线，再看到最大的大阴线
16:23 - 16:26
EN: it’s more likely going to be the climactic end of the trend
ZH: 它更有可能是趋势末尾的抛售高潮
16:26 - 16:29
EN: than the start of an even stronger leg down.
ZH: 而不是更强的下降趋势的开始
16:29 - 16:37
EN: That means that it’s probably going to reverse up
ZH: 也就是说，大概率会反弹到抛售高潮的起跌点， 而不是先下跌同样的距离
16:32 - 16:37
EN: to the top of that final Sell Climax before it goes the same distance down.
ZH: 也就是说，大概率会反弹到抛售高潮的起跌点， 而不是先下跌同样的距离
16:37 - 16:42
EN: When the breakout is big like this, you often get a small second leg down
ZH: 突破这么强势，所以在反弹之前， 经常先会有小的第2段下跌
16:41 - 16:45
EN: before the reversal, but the odds still favor a reversal.
ZH: 突破这么强势，所以在反弹之前， 经常先会有小的第2段下跌 但概率仍然站在反弹这一边
16:48 - 16:52
EN: And because of that, you’ll have bulls who see that and they’ll buy that close,
ZH: 因此，会有多头在它的收盘买入
16:52 - 16:57
EN: betting that the bears will look at this and say, “Wow, that’s a surprise.
ZH: 押注对于空头而言，这是一根礼物K线
16:57 - 17:01
EN: I wasn’t expecting that much profit so quickly,” and the bears will start
ZH: 空头在短时间内赚到了很多利润，所以他们会利用这根大阴线止盈
17:01 - 17:04
EN: to take profits, and they’ll decide they want to sell higher.
ZH: 然后等待逢高做空的机会
17:04 - 17:06
EN: Take profits down here.
ZH: 空头在这里止盈
17:06 - 17:10
EN: And the bulls know that, and the bulls know after a series
ZH: 多头知道这一点，多头知道在一系列连续的抛售高潮之后
17:08 - 17:14
EN: of consecutive Sell Climaxes, the market’s probably going
ZH: 多头知道这一点，多头知道在一系列连续的抛售高潮之后 市场会开始上涨，至少有两段反弹
17:11 - 17:14
EN: to reverse up for at least a couple legs.
ZH: 市场会开始上涨，至少有两段反弹
17:14 - 17:16
EN: The bulls start buying.
ZH: 于是多头开始买入
17:16 - 17:17
EN: They’ll buy that close,
ZH: 他们会在它的收盘买入
17:21 - 17:23
EN: and after a second leg down,
ZH: 以及在第2段下跌之后，
17:23 - 17:26
EN: they’ll look to buy a reversal up here or here.
ZH: 他们会在这里或这里买入，押注反弹
17:29 - 17:33
EN: Is this a Major Trend Reversal? Probably not.
ZH: 这是一个大反转吗？大概率不是
17:33 - 17:37
EN: We only had 3 bars up, and you only have 4 or 5 bars down.
ZH: 只有3根K线上涨，只有4~5根K线下跌
17:37 - 17:38
EN: The pattern is small.
ZH: 这个结构太小了
17:38 - 17:41
EN: But sometimes you’ll get a minor reversal
ZH: 但有时候，小反转的上涨幅度足够大，
17:41 - 17:44
EN: that goes up high enough to make a swing profit.
ZH: 也能赚到波段交易的利润
17:45 - 17:50
EN: The bulls taking this buy, they might call it a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 一些多头在这里买入，他们可能认为这是低点抬高的大反转
17:50 - 17:54
EN: It’s more likely a conversion of a bear trend into a Trading Range,
ZH: 更有可能的是，下降趋势转变为震荡区间
17:54 - 18:00
EN: and if it’s a Trading Range, the market will probably try
ZH: 如果真的是震荡区间， 那么市场大概率会去测试前期的重要高点，比如这里
17:56 - 18:00
EN: to test a major Lower High, like right here.
ZH: 如果真的是震荡区间， 那么市场大概率会去测试前期的重要高点，比如这里
18:00 - 18:03
EN: So is that a Major Trend Reversal? I don’t know.
ZH: 这是不是大反转呢？很难定义
18:03 - 18:06
EN: I think of it more as a bull leg in a big Trading Range,
ZH: 我认为它更像是大震荡区间中的上涨波段
18:06 - 18:10
EN: even though it went up far enough for swing traders to make a profit.
ZH: 尽管它的涨幅足够大，能让交易者赚到波段的利润
18:10 - 18:15
EN: I think of it as a minor reversal and that the rally will be a bull leg
ZH: 我认为它还是属于小反转，只是震荡区间中的上涨
18:14 - 18:18
EN: in a Trading Range and it will probably be
ZH: 我认为它还是属于小反转，只是震荡区间中的上涨 随后可能反转，变成震荡区间中的下跌波段
18:16 - 18:18
EN: followed by a bear leg in a Trading Range.
ZH: 随后可能反转，变成震荡区间中的下跌波段
Slide 014
Time: 18:20
Bilingual Transcript
18:27 - 18:33
EN: At a minimum, the bulls who buy expect the market to get
ZH: 至少，在这里买入的多头， 他们期待市场反弹到最后一段下跌的起跌点
18:31 - 18:39
EN: above the top of the final bear leg, and if they buy here,
ZH: 至少，在这里买入的多头， 他们期待市场反弹到最后一段下跌的起跌点 他们在这里买入，这是最后一段下跌， 如果超过这个高点
18:35 - 18:39
EN: this is the final bear leg and they’re hoping that if it gets above here,
ZH: 他们在这里买入，这是最后一段下跌， 如果超过这个高点
18:39 - 18:41
EN: this is a neckline of a Double Bottom.
ZH: 它是双底的颈线
18:41 - 18:44
EN: You have a Double Bottom, a neckline, maybe a Measured Move up,
ZH: 双底，颈线，也许会涨到MM目标位
18:44 - 18:48
EN: maybe to the top of this bear leg – this is a major Lower High.
ZH: 可能一直涨到这个下跌波段的起跌点——它是一个重要的高点
18:51 - 18:57
EN: If a bull bought this close, he’s expecting the market to get to the top
ZH: 如果多头在这根大阴线的收盘买入， 预期价格会反弹到最近一次抛售高潮的起跌点
18:55 - 18:59
EN: of the most recent Sell Climax, here, before it gets the same distance down.
ZH: 如果多头在这根大阴线的收盘买入， 预期价格会反弹到最近一次抛售高潮的起跌点 而不是先下跌相同的距离
18:59 - 19:05
EN: He’ll therefore buy that close and put a stop a little bit more
ZH: 所以在买入之后，他会把止损放在MM目标位下方
19:03 - 19:10
EN: than a Measured Move down, thinking that there’s a 60% chance
ZH: 所以在买入之后，他会把止损放在MM目标位下方 押注有60%的概率可以达到目标位，而不是被止损
19:06 - 19:10
EN: it’ll get there before it gets below here.
ZH: 押注有60%的概率可以达到目标位，而不是被止损
19:19 - 19:23
EN: The math is good for taking that buy or this buy or that buy.
ZH: 在这里，或这里，或这里买入，数学上是有优势的
19:24 - 19:28
EN: 60% chance you’re going to reach that before you reach this.
ZH: 60%的概率可以达到目标位，而不是被止损
19:33 - 19:36
EN: Initial target is the top of that final Sell Climax.
ZH: 初始目标是抛售高潮的起跌点
19:36 - 19:38
EN: We had one more small Sell Climax.
ZH: 这是最后的小抛售高潮
19:38 - 19:42
EN: And you also expect at least two legs up – one, pullback, two.
ZH: 同时，多头预期至少有两段反弹——1，回调，2
19:42 - 19:46
EN: This is strong enough up so that we’ll probably get
ZH: 这段上涨足够强势，所以至少还能上涨一些
19:45 - 19:46
EN: at least a little bit more up.
ZH: 这段上涨足够强势，所以至少还能上涨一些
Slide 015
Time: 19:50
Bilingual Transcript
19:56 - 20:02
EN: This Sell Climax is the biggest Sell Climax occurring more
ZH: 这根大阴线最大的抛售高潮， 此时下降趋势已经持续了超过20根K线
20:00 - 20:02
EN: than 20 bars into a bear trend.
ZH: 这根大阴线最大的抛售高潮， 此时下降趋势已经持续了超过20根K线
20:03 - 20:06
EN: Here, it’s probably about 40 bars into a bear trend,
ZH: 此时下降趋势已经持续了大约40根K线
20:06 - 20:11
EN: and it’s probably a sell vacuum down to some support level.
ZH: 很可能是对某个支撑位的真空测试
20:12 - 20:16
EN: Less likely it’s an acceleration down to an even stronger bear trend.
ZH: 而不是加速变成更强的下降趋势
20:16 - 20:20
EN: The bears can argue that it’s testing the bottom of a Trading Range,
ZH: 一些空头认为，这里跌破了左边震荡区间的底部
20:20 - 20:23
EN: we’re going to break below and fall for a Measured Move down.
ZH: 所以空头突破，然后继续跌到MM目标位
20:23 - 20:27
EN: 40% chance it’ll do that, 60% chance it will not.
ZH: 40%的概率会，60%的概率不会
20:35 - 20:42
EN: A lot of bulls want higher probability, and they’ll therefore look
ZH: 很多交易者想要更高的胜率， 所以他们会寻找这里可能有支撑的其它原因
20:39 - 20:42
EN: for other reasons why there might be support here.
ZH: 很多交易者想要更高的胜率， 所以他们会寻找这里可能有支撑的其它原因
Slide 016
Time: 20:45
Bilingual Transcript
20:47 - 20:53
EN: Every Buy Climax ends at resistance, and every Sell Climax ends at support.
ZH: 所有的抢购高潮都在某个阻力位结束， 所有的抛售高潮都在某个支撑位结束
20:54 - 20:57
EN: If you see a Buy Climax, look for other evidence of resistance.
ZH: 如果看到抢购高潮，可以去寻找其它这里有阻力的证据
20:57 - 21:01
EN: If you see a Sell Climax, look for evidence of support.
ZH: 如果看到抛售高潮，可以去寻找其它这里有支撑的证据
21:01 - 21:03
EN: That will make a reversal more likely.
ZH: 这会让反转的概率更高 （注：因为有多个支撑/阻力叠加在一起）
Slide 017
Time: 21:04
Bilingual Transcript
21:11 - 21:15
EN: Every reversal takes place at support or resistance.
ZH: 所有的反转都发生在支撑或阻力位
21:16 - 21:19
EN: In a bull trend the reversal takes place at resistance,
ZH: 在上涨趋势中，反转发生在阻力位
21:19 - 21:23
EN: and in a bear trend the reversal up takes place at support.
ZH: 在下降趋势中，反转发生在支撑位
21:23 - 21:27
EN: Any time you’re getting any evidence of a potential reversal,
ZH: 每当你看到潜在的反转机会，比如抛售高潮，
21:27 - 21:34
EN: like a Sell Climax, you should be looking to see
ZH: 你应该看看，在那个位置，是否还有其它反转的原因
21:30 - 21:34
EN: if there are multiple reasons for the market to reverse up there.
ZH: 你应该看看，在那个位置，是否还有其它反转的原因
21:34 - 21:35
EN: Look for reasons for support.
ZH: 寻找存在支撑的证据
21:44 - 21:45
EN: Parabolic Wedge.
ZH: 抛物线楔形
Slide 018
Time: 21:45
Bilingual Transcript
21:45 - 21:50
EN: Very Tight Channel with three pushes, so three pushes make a Wedge,
ZH: 通道很窄，有3次向下的推动—— 3推，所以是楔形底
21:50 - 21:52
EN: Tight Channel, make a Parabolic Wedge.
ZH: 窄通道，所以是抛物线下跌
21:52 - 21:53
EN: That’s good for the bulls.
ZH: 对多头而言是好事
21:56 - 22:00
EN: We’re at the bottom of a trend line drawn across these lows.
ZH: 连接这些低点，画出通道线
22:01 - 22:03
EN: Three pushes down, so it’s a type of Wedge.
ZH: 3次向下的推动，所以是楔形底的一种
22:03 - 22:09
EN: And you can see if I drew a trend line
ZH: 如果我连接这些高点，把趋势线也画出来， 就能够看到楔形的形状
22:05 - 22:09
EN: across the top of these highs, it’d be a Wedge.
ZH: 如果我连接这些高点，把趋势线也画出来， 就能够看到楔形的形状
22:09 - 22:10
EN: It’s also an Expanding Triangle.
ZH: 它也是一个扩张三角形
22:10 - 22:13
EN: We went down, we went up, we went more down, we went more up,
ZH: 下跌，上涨；下跌到新低，上涨到新高；
22:13 - 22:15
EN: and now we’re more down as well.
ZH: 现在又下跌到新低
22:21 - 22:24
EN: Also, we have a bull breakout and a pullback.
ZH: 这里上涨之后有回调
22:24 - 22:31
EN: I can draw a line across the lows, and maybe this is a bear channel, bull flag.
ZH: 可以把这些低点连起来， 所以也许这是一个宽下降通道——是牛旗
22:31 - 22:35
EN: Now, you can say, “Al, this is not part of this bear trend.”
ZH: 有人可能会问：“这个低点并不是下降趋势的一部分呀？”
22:35 - 22:37
EN: Well, in fact, it is.
ZH: 事实上，它是（下降趋势的一部分）
22:37 - 22:39
EN: You can see we got a reversal.
ZH: 趋势发生了反转
22:39 - 22:43
EN: The market often transitions when it’s making a reversal,
ZH: 在反转之前，市场通常有一个过渡阶段
22:43 - 22:49
EN: so it’s in a bull trend here, and a lot of times the bear trend begins
ZH: 之前这里处于上涨趋势， 很多时候在上涨趋势结束之前，下降趋势就开始了
22:47 - 22:49
EN: before the bull trend ends.
ZH: 之前这里处于上涨趋势， 很多时候在上涨趋势结束之前，下降趋势就开始了
22:49 - 22:54
EN: So there’s often a time like here, where there’s both a bull trend
ZH: 所以经常会像这里一样，既是上涨趋势，又是下降趋势
22:53 - 23:03
EN: and a bear trend taking place, and very often a pullback in that bull trend
ZH: 所以经常会像这里一样，既是上涨趋势，又是下降趋势 上涨趋势结束之前的回调，经常可能已经是下降趋势的开始
22:59 - 23:03
EN: before the bull trend ends, in fact, is the beginning of the bear trend.
ZH: 上涨趋势结束之前的回调，经常可能已经是下降趋势的开始
23:07 - 23:08
EN: We have a Double Top here.
ZH: 这里有一个双顶
23:08 - 23:10
EN: This high is slightly below that high.
ZH: 这个高点略低于那个高点
23:10 - 23:14
EN: I always look for a Measured Move down based upon the Lower High first
ZH: 我会先根据较低的那个高点，来测量MM目标位
23:14 - 23:16
EN: and see if the market starts to reverse.
ZH: 然后观察价格是否会在那里反弹
23:16 - 23:19
EN: If it does, then I assume that’s the end of the trend.
ZH: 如果反弹，说明趋势结束
23:19 - 23:25
EN: If it goes a little bit below there, then I look at the Measured Move
ZH: 如果继续下跌，那么我再根据较高的那个高点测量MM目标位
23:23 - 23:25
EN: based upon the Higher High of the Double Top.
ZH: 如果继续下跌，那么我再根据较高的那个高点测量MM目标位
23:25 - 23:32
EN: And you can see this is reversing up almost exactly
ZH: 可以看到，价格非常精确的从MM目标位反转上涨—— 基于较低的那个高点所测量的MM目标位
23:29 - 23:32
EN: from a Measured Move down from the Lower High of this Double Top.
ZH: 可以看到，价格非常精确的从MM目标位反转上涨—— 基于较低的那个高点所测量的MM目标位
23:32 - 23:34
EN: That is a sign of support.
ZH: 这是存在支撑的信号
23:38 - 23:44
EN: We had a first leg down and then a pullback to a Wedge bear flag
ZH: 第1段下跌，反弹形成楔形熊旗和双顶，然后有第2段下跌
23:42 - 23:44
EN: and a Double Top, and then we had a second leg down.
ZH: 第1段下跌，反弹形成楔形熊旗和双顶，然后有第2段下跌
23:44 - 23:46
EN: And look at the length of that second leg.
ZH: 看第2段下跌的高度
23:46 - 23:52
EN: It’s almost exactly the same as the first leg, so there’s a Leg 1,
ZH: 几乎与第1段完全相等， 所以第1段 = 第2段的MM目标位也在这里
23:50 - 23:52
EN: Leg 2 Measured Move here as well.
ZH: 几乎与第1段完全相等， 所以第1段 = 第2段的MM目标位也在这里
23:53 - 24:03
EN: You can see there are many reasons why traders will be taking profit
ZH: 所以存在很多原因，使得空头在这里止盈， 同时多头预期反转，并开始入场
23:58 - 24:03
EN: on their shorts and for bulls to be expecting a reversal,
ZH: 所以存在很多原因，使得空头在这里止盈， 同时多头预期反转，并开始入场
24:01 - 24:03
EN: so the bulls are looking to buy.
ZH: 所以存在很多原因，使得空头在这里止盈， 同时多头预期反转，并开始入场
24:03 - 24:05
EN: But you have to be paying attention.
ZH: 但你必须仔细观察
24:05 - 24:07
EN: You have to look for things like this.
ZH: 必须去寻找这样的证据
Slide 019
Time: 24:10
Bilingual Transcript
24:12 - 24:16
EN: I talked about how if you get a strong bull breakout late in a bull trend,
ZH: 这节课我讲了上涨趋势后期的大阳线
24:16 - 24:19
EN: it’s more likely a climactic end of the trend
ZH: 更有可能是趋势末尾的抢购高潮
24:19 - 24:22
EN: and not the start of an even stronger leg up.
ZH: 而不是更强的上涨趋势的开始
24:22 - 24:26
EN: And then I talked about how if you believe the market is Always In Short,
ZH: 然后我讲了，如果你认为市场处于单边下跌
24:26 - 24:29
EN: then you believe prices are going lower,
ZH: 那么说明你相信价格会继续走低
24:29 - 24:31
EN: and therefore it’s better to look to sell.
ZH: 因此最好只做空、不做多
24:31 - 24:36
EN: A Tight Trading Range, it’s easy to look at it
ZH: 窄震荡区间很容易被忽略，被认为没有意义， 实际并非如此
24:34 - 24:36
EN: and assume it’s meaningless, but it’s not.
ZH: 窄震荡区间很容易被忽略，被认为没有意义， 实际并非如此
24:37 - 24:44
EN: You can often get a Double Top Lower High in a Tight Trading Range,
ZH: 窄震荡区间内经常会又双顶，导致两段下跌，形成大反转
24:41 - 24:44
EN: and it could lead to two legs down, a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 窄震荡区间内经常会又双顶，导致两段下跌，形成大反转
24:45 - 24:47
EN: And the opposite is true at the bottom of a bear trend.
ZH: 在下降趋势中也是一样
24:47 - 24:51
EN: If the market enters a Tight Trading Range and forms a small Double Bottom
ZH: 如果市场进入窄震荡区间，并出现了双底，
24:51 - 24:57
EN: within that Tight Trading Range, there’s a 40% chance you’ll get
ZH: 有40%的概率会有两段上涨，甚至形成大反转
24:54 - 24:57
EN: a Major Trend Reversal up for a couple of legs.
ZH: 有40%的概率会有两段上涨，甚至形成大反转
24:58 - 25:01
EN: If you have a bear trend that lasts 20 or more bars
ZH: 如果下降趋势已经持续了超过20根K线
25:01 - 25:06
EN: and then you suddenly get the best looking bear bar in the bear trend,
ZH: 然后突然再出现整个趋势中最大的大阴线
25:06 - 25:08
EN: it’s more likely a climactic end of the trend
ZH: 它更有可能是趋势末尾的抛售高潮
25:08 - 25:11
EN: than the beginning of an even stronger leg down.
ZH: 而不是更强的下降趋势的开始
25:12 - 25:18
EN: And every Buy Climax ends at resistance, every Sell Climax ends at support,
ZH: 所有的抢购高潮都在某个阻力位结束， 所有的抛售高潮都在某个支撑位结束
25:18 - 25:21
EN: and the more support and resistance you see,
ZH: 你能够发现的支撑和阻力越多
25:21 - 25:23
EN: the more likely you’ll get a reversal.
ZH: 反转的概率就越大
25:27 - 25:28
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
25:28 - 25:30
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课
25:30 - 25:35
EN: This is the fifth of five videos on entering late in trends.
ZH: 在趋势后期入场的5节课，到这里就全部讲完了