al-brooks-course
41C - Trading Breakouts
Raw transcript and slide notes for 41C - Trading Breakouts.
Overview
- Slides: 17
- Transcript segments: 461
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课
00:05 - 00:08
EN: This is the third of four videos on trading breakouts.
ZH: 这是如何交易突破行情的第3节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:11
Bilingual Transcript
00:13 - 00:16
EN: Whenever a breakout is weak or the follow-through is bad,
ZH: 如果突破很弱，而且跟随不好，
00:16 - 00:20
EN: it’s probably going to evolve into a Trading Range.
ZH: 那么大概率就会演变成震荡区间
00:21 - 00:23
EN: I’m also going to talk about bear breakouts.
ZH: 我也会讲到空头突破
Slide 002
Time: 00:25
Bilingual Transcript
00:27 - 00:30
EN: We have an attempt at a Wedge bear flag.
ZH: 这里空头尝试形成楔形熊旗
00:30 - 00:33
EN: We reversed down, reversed down, reversed down.
ZH: 下跌，下跌，下跌
00:33 - 00:36
EN: But instead we got a bull breakout and decent bull follow-through.
ZH: 但是却向上突破，而且还有不错的跟随阳线
00:36 - 00:38
EN: At this point, you know a couple things.
ZH: 此时，你知道了几件事情
00:38 - 00:41
EN: One is the market wants to go up.
ZH: 一是市场想要上涨
00:41 - 00:44
EN: However, you do not know if it’s going to continue up
ZH: 但你不知道会以什么形式上涨
00:44 - 00:49
EN: - maybe a small pullback can continue up – or if it’ll have a very deep pullback.
ZH: ——也许只是回调一点点，就继续上涨 ——或者，可能会有非常深的回调
00:50 - 00:54
EN: If it has a very deep pullback, instead of a breakout into a bull trend,
ZH: 如果有非常深的回调，而不是继续强势的上涨趋势
00:54 - 00:58
EN: it’s probably going to be a breakout that leads to a Trading Range.
ZH: 那么这个突破大概率会演变成震荡区间
00:58 - 01:02
EN: Less likely you’ll get a failed breakout and a reversal down.
ZH: 突破失败，变成反转下跌的可能性仍然是比较小的
01:02 - 01:06
EN: Usually you need more than just this Micro Double Top.
ZH: 通常这样的小双顶是不足以形成大反转的
01:06 - 01:10
EN: You have a High 1 bull flag, we went up, we went down, we went up.
ZH: 这是一个高1牛旗，上涨，下跌，上涨
01:10 - 01:11
EN: Maybe we’ll go down.
ZH: 会反转下跌吗
01:11 - 01:18
EN: This is a strong enough breakout so that the odds
ZH: 这个突破足够强势，所以第1次下跌—— 就算是深度回调，也会被买起来，
01:14 - 01:18
EN: are the first reversal down will be bought even if it’s a deep reversal.
ZH: 这个突破足够强势，所以第1次下跌—— 就算是深度回调，也会被买起来，
01:18 - 01:22
EN: If it’s a deep reversal, you’re probably going to see a Trading Range.
ZH: 如果真的出现深度回调，那接下来大概率是震荡区间
01:22 - 01:30
EN: If it’s a small reversal, you’ll probably see some kind
ZH: 如果只是小回调，那么很可能会上涨到某个MM目标位—— 把突破的高度，或者震荡区间的高度，往上翻一倍
01:25 - 01:30
EN: of a Measured Move up based upon the height of the breakout
ZH: 如果只是小回调，那么很可能会上涨到某个MM目标位—— 把突破的高度，或者震荡区间的高度，往上翻一倍
01:28 - 01:30
EN: or maybe based upon the height of the Trading Range.
ZH: 如果只是小回调，那么很可能会上涨到某个MM目标位—— 把突破的高度，或者震荡区间的高度，往上翻一倍
01:30 - 01:34
EN: You’re already up to about a Measured Move
ZH: 这里，基于震荡区间高度的MM目标位已经达到了
01:32 - 01:34
EN: based on the height of the Trading Range.
ZH: 这里，基于震荡区间高度的MM目标位已经达到了
01:39 - 01:42
EN: We have a Trading Range lasting about 15 or 20 bars.
ZH: 这个震荡区间持续了15~20根K线
01:42 - 01:48
EN: A lot of prominent tails below bars, and we have a small reversal up.
ZH: 有长下影线，然后反转上涨
01:48 - 01:51
EN: We have a Wedge, so it’s a small Spike and Channel
ZH: 这里是（空头眼中的）3推楔形熊旗， 所以是小的急速变通道的结构
01:51 - 01:55
EN: - spike, pullback, second push, pullback, and then third push.
ZH: ——急速上涨，回调；第2推，回调；然后是第3推
01:55 - 02:01
EN: Instead of testing down to the bottom of the channel
ZH: 大部分时候会下跌回测通道的起点并形成震荡区间， 但这里向上突破了
01:58 - 02:01
EN: and forming a Trading Range, we’re getting a bull breakout.
ZH: 大部分时候会下跌回测通道的起点并形成震荡区间， 但这里向上突破了
02:06 - 02:10
EN: At this point the height of this Trading Range, this Wedge bear flag,
ZH: 此时，这个震荡区间的高度，这个楔形熊旗的高度
02:10 - 02:13
EN: is about half the size of a normal day’s range,
ZH: 大约是平时每天振幅的一半
02:13 - 02:20
EN: and therefore you’re expecting a normal day’s range.
ZH: 也就是说，按照正常的预期，这个高度需要翻倍
02:17 - 02:20
EN: Hence you expect the range to approximately double.
ZH: 也就是说，按照正常的预期，这个高度需要翻倍
02:21 - 02:25
EN: You don’t know if this is going to be the start of a bull trend day
ZH: 你不知道今天会不会是一个大的上涨趋势日
02:25 - 02:29
EN: and result in a bull trend that’s much bigger than an average day.
ZH: 导致今天的涨幅比平均振幅大得多
02:29 - 02:34
EN: However, with this tail on the top of the breakout bar – new high of the day,
ZH: 然而，突破K线的顶部有上影线——日内新高，
02:34 - 02:39
EN: breakout, and then a big tail on top – it looks like a weak breakout.
ZH: 突破，但顶部有长上影线——看起来是一个较弱的突破
02:39 - 02:42
EN: And also, the bars in the breakout are not particularly big.
ZH: 而且突破阶段的K线体积也没有特别大
02:42 - 02:45
EN: Tail, small bar, small bar, tail.
ZH: 上影线，小阳线，上影线
02:46 - 02:51
EN: Whenever you see a breakout that’s weak, you have to assume
ZH: 当看到弱突破的时候，你必须假设市场仍然进入了趋势
02:49 - 02:51
EN: that the breakout’s going to lead to a trend.
ZH: 当看到弱突破的时候，你必须假设市场仍然进入了趋势
02:52 - 02:56
EN: However, it’s probably going to be a weak trend,
ZH: 然而，它更有可能是弱趋势，比如是震荡上涨日——
02:54 - 02:56
EN: like a trending Trading Range day.
ZH: 然而，它更有可能是弱趋势，比如是震荡上涨日——
02:56 - 03:00
EN: We have a Trading Range, you break out for 3, 4, 5 bars,
ZH: 震荡区间，3、4、5根K线突破，
03:00 - 03:02
EN: and then you form another Trading Range.
ZH: 然后在上方又形成一个震荡区间 （注：就像是两个区间叠在一起，但总体是上涨的）
03:10 - 03:15
EN: Whenever you have a breakout that does not look as strong as you would like,
ZH: 如果看到突破没有预期中的那么强劲
03:15 - 03:17
EN: it’s probably going to be a bull leg in a Trading Range
ZH: 那么它很可能是震荡区间中的上涨波段
03:17 - 03:19
EN: rather than the start of a big bull trend.
ZH: 而不是一个大上涨趋势的开始
03:19 - 03:23
EN: It still could be a spike, pullback, and then we could channel up
ZH: 它仍然可能是急速上涨、回调，然后进入通道，一直涨到收盘，
03:22 - 03:29
EN: for the rest of the day, but the bars are not especially big compared
ZH: 它仍然可能是急速上涨、回调，然后进入通道，一直涨到收盘， 但是和前面的K线相比，它们的体积并不算特别大，而且还有长上影线
03:26 - 03:29
EN: to the bodies of the bars over here, and you have that tail,
ZH: 但是和前面的K线相比，它们的体积并不算特别大，而且还有长上影线
03:29 - 03:35
EN: and you had the bad follow-through here after a breakout bar,
ZH: 然后这根阳线后面的跟随不好，它本身也有长上影线
03:32 - 03:35
EN: plus the breakout bar has a tail as well.
ZH: 然后这根阳线后面的跟随不好，它本身也有长上影线
03:35 - 03:41
EN: This looks like a weak breakout, and that increases the chances
ZH: 这看起来像是一个弱突破，增加了后续演变成震荡区间的可能性
03:38 - 03:41
EN: that it will evolve into a Trading Range pretty soon.
ZH: 这看起来像是一个弱突破，增加了后续演变成震荡区间的可能性
03:45 - 03:50
EN: We just don’t yet know if the Trading Range
ZH: 只是不清楚具体的形式——进入上涨通道，然后反转变成区间；
03:48 - 03:50
EN: will be a channel up and then a range,
ZH: 只是不清楚具体的形式——进入上涨通道，然后反转变成区间；
03:50 - 03:54
EN: or if it’ll be immediate reversal down and then a range down here.
ZH: 还是立刻反转下跌，然后在这里震荡
03:57 - 03:58
EN: And this is what we got.
ZH: 这是后续的行情
03:58 - 04:01
EN: We had the deep pullback, more than half.
ZH: 深度回调，超过50%
04:01 - 04:05
EN: We pulled back below this breakout point, but not below the top of the Wedge.
ZH: 回调到了这个高点的下方，但没有跌破楔形顶的高点
04:05 - 04:11
EN: We have 3 consecutive bear bars, all closing below their midpoints
ZH: 连续3根阴线，全都收在一半以下，其中两根收在最低
04:09 - 04:11
EN: and 2 closing near their lows.
ZH: 连续3根阴线，全都收在一半以下，其中两根收在最低
04:12 - 04:16
EN: This is enough of a big up, big down move to create big confusion,
ZH: 这是大涨、大跌、足以造成困惑，
04:16 - 04:20
EN: and confusion usually results in the market going sideways.
ZH: 而困惑通常会导致市场横盘
04:22 - 04:27
EN: At the close of this bar, most traders assumed that the pullback was too deep
ZH: 在这根K线收盘时，大多数交易者认为回调太深
Slide 003
Time: 04:25
Bilingual Transcript
04:27 - 04:30
EN: for the breakout to be leading to a strong bull trend.
ZH: 所以不会是很强的上涨趋势
04:31 - 04:38
EN: They instead assumed that yes, we’re probably Always In Long
ZH: 尽管此时仍然是上涨趋势，也许可以继续持有10、20、30根K线
04:35 - 04:38
EN: and we’re probably going to stay long for 10, 20, or 30 bars;
ZH: 尽管此时仍然是上涨趋势，也许可以继续持有10、20、30根K线
04:38 - 04:48
EN: however, the pullback is deep – deep enough so that the bulls
ZH: 但是，回调很深，足以让多头感到失望， 因此在创新高的时候多头会剥头皮止盈，而不是追涨
04:42 - 04:48
EN: are sufficiently disappointed that they’ll be scalping
ZH: 但是，回调很深，足以让多头感到失望， 因此在创新高的时候多头会剥头皮止盈，而不是追涨
04:45 - 04:48
EN: near new highs instead of buying breakouts to new highs.
ZH: 但是，回调很深，足以让多头感到失望， 因此在创新高的时候多头会剥头皮止盈，而不是追涨
04:49 - 04:54
EN: And the bears see this deep pullback as well as a sign of weak bulls,
ZH: 空头看到这个深度回调，这是多头疲软的信号
04:54 - 04:58
EN: strong bears, and when the market gets up near the high, the bears sell,
ZH: 强空头会在前期高点附近卖出做空
04:58 - 05:01
EN: betting that a Trading Range is more likely than a bull trend.
ZH: 押注更有可能是震荡区间，而不是上涨趋势
05:04 - 05:06
EN: Buy low, sell high, and scalp.
ZH: 所以低买、高卖、剥头皮
05:06 - 05:12
EN: (You can see the videos on trading in Trading Ranges
ZH: （可以观看震荡区间部分的课程，了解在这种行情下应该如何交易）
05:09 - 05:12
EN: for stop placements and how to trade when the market does this.)
ZH: （可以观看震荡区间部分的课程，了解在这种行情下应该如何交易）
05:18 - 05:21
EN: I said that after the weak breakout and then the deep pullback,
ZH: 弱突破之后，深度回调，
05:21 - 05:25
EN: traders expect a Trading Range, so they buy low, sell high, and scalp.
ZH: 交易者预期市场进入震荡区间，所以他们低买、高卖、剥头皮
05:26 - 05:29
EN: Both the bulls and the bears are buying low.
ZH: 多头和空头都在底部买入
05:29 - 05:39
EN: The bulls are buying expecting a test up to the top of the range,
ZH: 多头买入做多，预期价格涨回到区间的顶部，然后他们会止盈离场； 空头也在底部买入，因为他们之前在高位做空了，现在买入止盈
05:32 - 05:39
EN: where they’ll scalp out, and the bears are buying low
ZH: 多头买入做多，预期价格涨回到区间的顶部，然后他们会止盈离场； 空头也在底部买入，因为他们之前在高位做空了，现在买入止盈
05:35 - 05:39
EN: because they sold high and they’re buying back their shorts.
ZH: 多头买入做多，预期价格涨回到区间的顶部，然后他们会止盈离场； 空头也在底部买入，因为他们之前在高位做空了，现在买入止盈
05:44 - 05:47
EN: Both bulls and bear are selling high.
ZH: 多头和空头都在顶部卖出
05:47 - 05:52
EN: Bears are selling high betting that breakouts of bull flags
ZH: 空头在高位卖出做空，押注向上的突破会失败
05:50 - 05:52
EN: or of the top of the range will fail.
ZH: 空头在高位卖出做空，押注向上的突破会失败
05:52 - 05:55
EN: So they’re selling looking for a scalp down,
ZH: 做空之后，在下跌时快速剥头皮离场
05:55 - 05:58
EN: and the bulls are selling high to take profits.
ZH: 同时，之前买入的多头会在顶部卖出止盈
05:58 - 06:01
EN: They see the rally is weak, they doubt it’s going much higher,
ZH: 他们看到上涨趋势很弱，不认为会有更大的涨幅，
06:01 - 06:03
EN: and therefore they’re selling out of longs.
ZH: 所以他们卖出止盈
Slide 004
Time: 06:10
Bilingual Transcript
06:11 - 06:14
EN: This is a strong enough breakout – 4 consecutive bull bars,
ZH: 这个突破足够强势——连续4根阳线
06:14 - 06:19
EN: several closing above their midpoints – it’s strong enough so that the odds
ZH: 基本都收在一半以上——足够强势，
06:19 - 06:24
EN: are we’ll either go up, even if there’s a pullback,
ZH: 即使有回调，大概率仍会继续上涨
06:24 - 06:28
EN: or if there’s a deep pullback we’ll get back to this price level.
ZH: 或者，就算有深度回调，也能涨回到这个高点附近
06:29 - 06:31
EN: And therefore, bulls will buy closes.
ZH: 因此，多头会在它的收盘买入
06:31 - 06:33
EN: They’ll buy this close, that close.
ZH: 他们会买它的收盘，它的收盘
06:33 - 06:37
EN: Some bull will buy this close, and then once he sees this bear bar,
ZH: 一些多头会买它的收盘，然后看到了这根阴线
06:37 - 06:39
EN: he’ll say, “Eh, I don’t know.
ZH: 他会觉得：“额，啥情况呀？
06:39 - 06:42
EN: That’s pretty bad follow-through.
ZH: 这个跟随不太好啊，我需要做出决定
06:40 - 06:42
EN: I have a decision to make.
ZH: 这个跟随不太好啊，我需要做出决定
06:42 - 06:46
EN: Do I think it’s going to reverse down and become a bear trend?” Not likely.
ZH: 它会反转变成下降趋势吗？”概率很低
06:46 - 06:48
EN: 4 consecutive bull bars in the breakout.
ZH: 连续4根阳线突破
06:48 - 06:52
EN: Probably the best the bears can get is a deep pullback and then a Trading Range.
ZH: 空头能得到的最好结果，也就是深度回调，然后变成震荡区间
06:52 - 06:55
EN: And therefore some bulls, instead of getting out below that bear bar,
ZH: 所以一些多头不会在这根阴线的下方离场
06:55 - 07:01
EN: will hold long, wait for a reversal down, and then buy more above a bull bar,
ZH: 而是继续持有，如果有回调，就在阳线的上方加仓，
07:01 - 07:05
EN: betting that the market will get back up to their original close.
ZH: 押注市场会涨回到这个收盘价附近
07:05 - 07:07
EN: It was reasonable to buy that close.
ZH: 在它的收盘买入是合理的
07:07 - 07:10
EN: If you do something reasonable and you manage your trade correctly
ZH: 如果你的入场合理，并且正确地管理这笔交易——
07:10 - 07:15
EN: by scaling in, using an appropriate stop, you’re usually able to avoid a loss,
ZH: 正确地加仓，设置正确的止损——通常至少可以避免亏损
07:15 - 07:18
EN: and almost always you can make at least a small profit.
ZH: 几乎都能小赚离场
07:22 - 07:28
EN: The bears, they see this as two legs up already – one, pullback, and then two
ZH: 在空头的视角中，已经有两段上涨——1，回调，然后2
07:28 - 07:32
EN: - and they see this as a reversal, and they’re thinking,
ZH: 看到了这个做空信号K，空头认为：
07:32 - 07:35
EN: “Eh, it’s probably going to get a pretty deep pullback
ZH: “可能会有深度的回调，因为这个突破存在一些问题”
07:34 - 07:35
EN: because that breakout’s not all that strong,”
ZH: “可能会有深度的回调，因为这个突破存在一些问题”
07:36 - 07:39
EN: and they see this as a terrible follow-through bar.
ZH: 他们认为这是一个糟糕的跟随K线
07:39 - 07:43
EN: So the bears will sell below that bear bar and they’ll get filled over here,
ZH: 所以空头会在那个阴线下方挂突破卖单，订单会在这里成交
07:43 - 07:46
EN: betting that it’ll fall far enough for at least a scalp.
ZH: 押注会有一定幅度的下跌，至少可以做一笔剥头皮交易
07:49 - 08:00
EN: Bears take profits, either at a fixed number of points down
ZH: 空头会在固定的距离止盈——比如1，2，或3个点—— 或者他们会在反转上涨时止盈，只要利润不小于1个点
07:54 - 08:00
EN: - 1, 2, or 3 points – or they’ll take profits on the reversal up
ZH: 空头会在固定的距离止盈——比如1，2，或3个点—— 或者他们会在反转上涨时止盈，只要利润不小于1个点
07:58 - 08:00
EN: as long as they can make at least a minimum scalp.
ZH: 空头会在固定的距离止盈——比如1，2，或3个点—— 或者他们会在反转上涨时止盈，只要利润不小于1个点
08:00 - 08:03
EN: In the Emini, that would be about 1 point.
ZH: 在ES中，剥头皮的最小目标是1个点
08:03 - 08:07
EN: If the reversal up began right here instead of all the way down here,
ZH: 假设直接继续上涨，而不是下跌这么多
08:07 - 08:10
EN: a lot of bears would hold short expecting a second leg down.
ZH: 很多空头会继续持有，预期会有第2段回调
08:10 - 08:14
EN: However, if it pulled back to here and then started to bounce
ZH: 然而，如果回调很小，上涨
08:14 - 08:16
EN: and it pulled back again and started to bounce again
ZH: 第2段回调也很小，又上涨
08:16 - 08:21
EN: - that would be a High 2 bull flag – and the pullback was not deep,
ZH: ——那就是一个高2牛旗，而且不是深度回调
08:21 - 08:24
EN: most bears would then get out with a small loss.
ZH: 那么空头就会决定小亏离场
08:30 - 08:36
EN: Remember, there were Buy The Close bulls, some of whom thought the chances
ZH: 同时，对于之前追涨的多头而言，他们认为反转变成下降趋势的概率很小
08:35 - 08:40
EN: of a bear trend were small, so they held long – stop down here, here, or here
ZH: 同时，对于之前追涨的多头而言，他们认为反转变成下降趋势的概率很小 所以他们继续持有，止损放在这里，这里，或这里
08:40 - 08:43
EN: - and then they looked for a bull bar to buy more.
ZH: 然后等待加仓的机会
08:43 - 08:49
EN: They want the second entry to be at least
ZH: 加仓的地方距离初始入场价至少要有1个点，也就是剥头皮的最低目标
08:45 - 08:49
EN: as big as a minimum scalp (1 point in the Emini).
ZH: 加仓的地方距离初始入场价至少要有1个点，也就是剥头皮的最低目标
08:49 - 08:51
EN: They would rather it be 2 or 3 points.
ZH: 最好是2或3个点
08:51 - 08:53
EN: They’re expecting the market to get back to that close.
ZH: 多头预期市场会涨回到那个收盘价
08:53 - 08:58
EN: They can get out breakeven on their first entry when it gets back there,
ZH: 在那个时候，他们的初始仓位可以打平，
08:58 - 09:01
EN: and then with a scalp profit on their second entry.
ZH: 逢低加仓的部分可以赚到一笔剥头皮的利润
Slide 005
Time: 09:05
Bilingual Transcript
09:08 - 09:12
EN: The Buy The Close bulls who bought this close, this close, this close
ZH: 买收盘的多头，他们在这里、这里、这里买入
09:12 - 09:14
EN: - they may’ve bought one, they may’ve bought all
ZH: ——有的人买了一次，有的人不断加仓
09:14 - 09:16
EN: - anyway, there will be some bulls who bought this close,
ZH: 总之，会有一些多头在这个收盘价买入
09:16 - 09:22
EN: and they’re hoping to get out breakeven on
ZH: 在看到糟糕的跟随之后，他们希望能够有打平离场的机会
09:19 - 09:22
EN: that entry after they see this terrible follow-through.
ZH: 在看到糟糕的跟随之后，他们希望能够有打平离场的机会
09:22 - 09:25
EN: Many of them bought more above this bull bar
ZH: 其中很多人会在这个阳线上方加仓
09:25 - 09:27
EN: and they get out with a profit on their second entry.
ZH: 加仓的部分可以赚钱
09:31 - 09:34
EN: And that is why you had that tail on the top of that bar.
ZH: 这就是为什么那根K线的顶部有上影线
09:36 - 09:40
EN: What took place was a lot of the bulls
ZH: 因为很多多头对这么深的回调感到失望
09:38 - 09:40
EN: were sufficiently disappointed by the selloff
ZH: 因为很多多头对这么深的回调感到失望
09:40 - 09:44
EN: that they were just happy to get out breakeven if they bought that close.
ZH: 能够有打平离场的机会就很满足了
09:44 - 09:48
EN: Also, the bears knew these bulls were very disappointed by this.
ZH: 空头此时也知道，多头对趋势感到非常失望
09:48 - 09:51
EN: They knew the bulls would be selling out there,
ZH: 空头知道会有多头在这里卖出
09:51 - 09:54
EN: and therefore the bears sold there – at least for a scalp.
ZH: 所以空头也会卖出做空——至少做一笔剥头皮交易
Slide 006
Time: 10:00
Bilingual Transcript
10:02 - 10:04
EN: The market’s Always In Long here,
ZH: 之前这里是单边上涨
10:04 - 10:08
EN: and probably still Always In Long here despite the 3 bear bars.
ZH: 到了这里，尽管有这3根阴线， 但仍然是上涨趋势（注：做多比做空更好）
10:09 - 10:12
EN: The 3 bear bars created a deep pullback,
ZH: 这3根阴线是深度回调，
10:12 - 10:14
EN: still above the bottom of the bull breakout.
ZH: 还没有跌破起涨点
10:14 - 10:16
EN: It’s slightly more than a 50% pullback.
ZH: 回调幅度略微超过了50%
10:17 - 10:20
EN: Usually the bears need at least a Micro Double Top,
ZH: 通常空头至少需要一个小双顶（才能反转趋势）
10:20 - 10:24
EN: and this is not enough to turn it to Always In Short.
ZH: 所以这个还不足以让市场进入下降趋势
10:24 - 10:28
EN: If this continued down here below the bull breakout,
ZH: 如果继续下跌，跌破这个起涨点
10:28 - 10:31
EN: then traders would see it as Always In Short
ZH: 那么交易者会认为市场处于单边下跌
10:31 - 10:33
EN: and they would expect maybe a bear trend.
ZH: 他们会预期市场进入下降趋势
10:33 - 10:35
EN: That is not what happened.
ZH: 这种情况没有发生
10:40 - 10:44
EN: Most traders, even professional traders, do not like to reverse.
ZH: 大多数交易者，即使是职业交易员，都不喜欢反转
10:44 - 10:46
EN: I do sometimes, but I really don’t like it.
ZH: 我有时候会做反转，但并不喜欢
10:46 - 10:50
EN: If I’m in a position and there’s an opposite signal,
ZH: 如果我在趋势中持有，然后看到了反转的信号
10:50 - 10:54
EN: I usually get out of my trade and not take the opposite signal.
ZH: 我通常会离场，但不会接受信号立刻做反转
10:54 - 11:00
EN: I usually wait at least 1 or 2 or 3 bars
ZH: 我至少会等待几根K线，评估是否有反向趋势的交易机会
10:57 - 11:00
EN: before looking for a trade in the opposite direction.
ZH: 我至少会等待几根K线，评估是否有反向趋势的交易机会
11:00 - 11:03
EN: I want to make sure that I am totally objective,
ZH: 我会保证尽量做到客观
11:03 - 11:05
EN: and if I’m thinking that the market’s going up
ZH: 如果我认为市场会上涨
11:05 - 11:09
EN: and then it starts to go down, I usually wait 1, 2, or 3 bars
ZH: 但它却开始下跌，我会等待几根K线
11:09 - 11:12
EN: before I make a decision about how strong the bears are.
ZH: 评估空头的力量到底有多强
11:17 - 11:24
EN: It’s also hard emotionally to do two things at once
ZH: 停止做多并立刻做空——同时做两个决策，情感上也比较难接受
11:21 - 11:24
EN: - to exit long and to go short.
ZH: 停止做多并立刻做空——同时做两个决策，情感上也比较难接受
11:24 - 11:30
EN: However, if you’re able to do it profitably
ZH: 然而，如果对你而言，这么做能够盈利， 而且你感到很习惯，那么可以放心地去做
11:27 - 11:30
EN: and comfortably, then go ahead and do it.
ZH: 然而，如果对你而言，这么做能够盈利， 而且你感到很习惯，那么可以放心地去做
Slide 007
Time: 11:35
Bilingual Transcript
11:36 - 11:39
EN: The bulls who bought anywhere during this bull breakout
ZH: 在突破期间的任何地方买入的多头
11:39 - 11:44
EN: saw a disappointing bar here, and then even more disappointing bars here.
ZH: 对这根K线感到失望，然后这里的几根K线让他们更加失望
11:44 - 11:47
EN: But it’s still above the bottom of the bull breakout
ZH: 但价格仍然在多头突破的起涨点上方
11:47 - 11:49
EN: and still above the bottom of the bull trend.
ZH: 仍然在上涨趋势的起涨点上方
11:49 - 11:55
EN: It’s still Always In Long, and this selloff could be
ZH: 仍然是上涨趋势，而这里的下跌可能只是突破楔形熊旗之后的回测
11:51 - 11:55
EN: simply a breakout test of the top of this Wedge bear flag.
ZH: 仍然是上涨趋势，而这里的下跌可能只是突破楔形熊旗之后的回测
12:00 - 12:03
EN: Reasonable to put a stop here or here or here.
ZH: 把止损放在这里、这里、或这里也是合理的
12:04 - 12:07
EN: In general, I would not put a stop there
ZH: 通常，我不会把止损放在那里
12:07 - 12:10
EN: because the bottom of a Buy Climax, the bottom of a breakout,
ZH: 因为抢购高潮的起涨点是一个磁铁，
12:10 - 12:13
EN: is a magnet, and the market usually tries to get below the low.
ZH: 往往会略微跌破这个低点
12:13 - 12:15
EN: And if it does, it usually reverses up.
ZH: 而且跌破之后通常会反转上涨
12:15 - 12:20
EN: So for me, if I’m buying for any reason – even if I bought that close
ZH: 所以如果是我，如果我在某个地方买入了——就算追涨在最高的收盘价
12:20 - 12:22
EN: - I’ll get out below the bear bar over here,
ZH: 我要么在这根阴线下方离场（注：要么离场足够早）
12:22 - 12:27
EN: or I’ll rely on a wider stop all the way down here, looking to scale in.
ZH: 我要么依赖更宽的止损，然后逢低加仓
Slide 008
Time: 12:30
Bilingual Transcript
12:33 - 12:34
EN: Market went sideways.
ZH: 市场开始横盘
12:34 - 12:40
EN: We’re still trying to get trend resumption up, and bears reversed down here
ZH: 多头仍然想要恢复趋势； 这是第1次下跌，跌破了它的低点
12:40 - 12:44
EN: below that bar, and now they’re reversing down again below this bar.
ZH: 现在是第2次反转下跌，跌破了它的低点
12:44 - 12:47
EN: So it’s a Micro Double Top and a Double Top.
ZH: 所以它是一个小双顶，也有更大的双顶
12:47 - 12:49
EN: If you want, you can call it a Triangle.
ZH: 也可以把它看作是三角形
12:49 - 12:53
EN: A lot of the bulls who are still long will get out there,
ZH: 还在持有的多头，其中很多人会在这里离场
12:53 - 12:56
EN: and a lot of the bears will view this as a Trading Range.
ZH: 同时很多空头把它看作是震荡区间
12:56 - 12:59
EN: This would be a second entry short at the top of a Trading Range
ZH: 这是震荡区间顶部的第2做空入场点
12:59 - 13:02
EN: - first entry here, second entry here.
ZH: 第1入场点在这里，第2入场点在这里
13:02 - 13:04
EN: Bear bar closing below its midpoint.
ZH: 阴线收在一半以下
13:04 - 13:08
EN: Even though it’s a doji bar, it’s a reasonable sell for a scalp down.
ZH: 尽管它只是一个十字星，这里卖出做空（至少剥头皮）是合理的
13:13 - 13:19
EN: The bears who sold below this Micro Double Top on the reversal down
ZH: 在这里卖出的空头，押注价格会从区间的顶部反转下跌
13:17 - 13:23
EN: from the top of the range, the Triangle, tried to buy back their shorts
ZH: 在这里卖出的空头，押注价格会从区间的顶部反转下跌 他们会在区间的下半部分找机会止盈
13:21 - 13:23
EN: somewhere in the bottom half of the Trading Range,
ZH: 他们会在区间的下半部分找机会止盈
13:23 - 13:28
EN: and here we have a small Sell Climax and a bull bar closing on its high.
ZH: 这里是一个小的抛售高潮，然后是阳线收在最高
13:28 - 13:29
EN: Bull inside bar.
ZH: 多头孕线
13:29 - 13:31
EN: It’s reasonable to buy above that bar.
ZH: 在它的上方买入是合理的
13:31 - 13:34
EN: So this is a good location for the bears to scalp out.
ZH: 所以空头可以在这里止盈离场
13:39 - 13:44
EN: We have a bull trend, a bear break below the bottom of the bull trend line.
ZH: 上涨趋势，趋势线被跌破
13:44 - 13:47
EN: You can argue it’s a Higher High Major Trend Reversal,
ZH: 也许可以说这是高点抬高的大反转
13:47 - 13:50
EN: but it’s only 1 bar, so it’s probably not a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 但只有1根K线，所以大概率不会是大反转
13:50 - 13:53
EN: And then we have a Lower High here, and it’s a Wedge.
ZH: 然后在这里，高点降低了，而且有3推楔形
13:53 - 14:00
EN: Do you see the three pushes up? Bull, bear, bull, bear, and then bull, bear.
ZH: 你看到3推的结构了吗？ 上涨，下跌；上涨，下跌；上涨，下跌
14:00 - 14:03
EN: So it’s a type of a Lower High Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 所以它是高点降低的大反转结构
14:03 - 14:11
EN: Would I short that for a swing? Well, we’re in a Trading Range
ZH: 我会在这里卖出，做波段交易吗？ 现在市场处于震荡区间，而且快速地来回反转
14:07 - 14:11
EN: and we’re getting good reversals up and down.
ZH: 我会在这里卖出，做波段交易吗？ 现在市场处于震荡区间，而且快速地来回反转
14:11 - 14:13
EN: I think it’s not a high probability swing short.
ZH: 所以这不是一个高胜率的波段做空机会
14:14 - 14:17
EN: In general, whenever you have any Major Trend Reversal,
ZH: 通常来说，不管是什么大反转的结构
14:17 - 14:23
EN: you have about a 40% chance of actually getting a reversal
ZH: 真正形成相反波段的概率只有约40%
14:20 - 14:23
EN: into a swing in the opposite direction.
ZH: 真正形成相反波段的概率只有约40%
14:23 - 14:27
EN: Shorting this for a swing down, 40% chance you’ll get it.
ZH: 在这里做空，40%的时候可以赚到下跌波段
14:27 - 14:31
EN: However, here at the top of the Trading Range you have a rally
ZH: 这里，市场处于震荡区间的顶部
14:31 - 14:33
EN: where the bull bars have bad follow-through.
ZH: 左边的上涨途中，跟随都很糟糕
14:33 - 14:35
EN: It’s reasonable to short at least for a scalp.
ZH: 所以至少是很好的做空剥头皮机会
Slide 009
Time: 14:40
Bilingual Transcript
14:41 - 14:44
EN: I’m going to talk some about bear breakouts now.
ZH: 现在我想讲一讲有关空头突破的内容
Slide 010
Time: 14:45
Bilingual Transcript
14:48 - 14:51
EN: Emini.
ZH: ES，昨天是下降通道，今天跳空高开
14:49 - 14:51
EN: We had a bear channel until it gapped up.
ZH: ES，昨天是下降通道，今天跳空高开
14:52 - 14:54
EN: A tail on top, but a bull bar.
ZH: （第1根5分钟K线）是阳线，上影线很长
14:55 - 14:58
EN: Then we have 2 big bear bars closing on their lows,
ZH: 然后连续两根大阴线收在最低
14:58 - 15:01
EN: breaking below the low of the past 30 or 40 bars.
ZH: 跌破了过去30~40根K线的最低点
15:01 - 15:05
EN: At the close of this bar, I think the market’s Always In Short.
ZH: 在这根K线收盘后，我认为市场已经处于单边下跌了
15:05 - 15:08
EN: It’s a surprise given how small these bars are.
ZH: 因为之前的K线都很小，所以这是一根惊喜K线
15:09 - 15:12
EN: The bars are very big, closing on their lows, Always In Short.
ZH: 体积非常大，收在最低，单边下跌
15:12 - 15:16
EN: 60% chance we’ll fall for some kind of a Measured Move,
ZH: 60%的概率会下跌到某个MM目标位
15:16 - 15:18
EN: maybe based upon the height of the bodies.
ZH: 比如把它们的高度往下翻一倍
15:18 - 15:23
EN: That means from the open of the first bar
ZH: 从第1根阴线的开盘，到第2根阴线的收盘（往下翻一倍）
15:20 - 15:23
EN: to the close of the final bar of the breakout.
ZH: 从第1根阴线的开盘，到第2根阴线的收盘（往下翻一倍）
15:23 - 15:28
EN: If we had a third bar on the breakout, then it would be the open
ZH: 如果突破阶段有3根阴线，那么就是从它的开盘， 到第3根阴线的收盘（往下翻一倍）
15:26 - 15:28
EN: of this bar to the close of the third bar.
ZH: 如果突破阶段有3根阴线，那么就是从它的开盘， 到第3根阴线的收盘（往下翻一倍）
15:29 - 15:37
EN: But at this point there’s a 60% chance the market’s going to eventually fall
ZH: 此时有60%的概率，市场最终会跌到MM目标位—— 从它的开盘到它的收盘（往下翻一倍）
15:34 - 15:37
EN: for a Measured Move down from this open to that close,
ZH: 此时有60%的概率，市场最终会跌到MM目标位—— 从它的开盘到它的收盘（往下翻一倍）
15:37 - 15:41
EN: so 60% chance we’re going down here before we get back up here.
ZH: 60%的概率会跌到那里，而不是上涨打掉止损
15:46 - 15:49
EN: If you had to do something, buy or sell at the close of this bar,
ZH: 现在有两个选择，在它的收盘买入，或者卖出
15:49 - 15:50
EN: what would you do?
ZH: 你会怎么选？
15:54 - 15:59
EN: If you sold, maybe you put your stop
ZH: 如果卖出做空，可以把止损放在这两根大阴线的上方
15:57 - 15:59
EN: above the top of the 2-bar bear breakout.
ZH: 如果卖出做空，可以把止损放在这两根大阴线的上方
15:59 - 16:04
EN: You might put it up here, but let’s say you put your stop just
ZH: 当然也可以放在最上面，这里假设把止损放在两根大阴线的上方
16:02 - 16:04
EN: above the top of the 2-bar breakout,
ZH: 当然也可以放在最上面，这里假设把止损放在两根大阴线的上方
16:05 - 16:09
EN: and let’s say you wanted to make a Measured Move down.
ZH: 押注会跌到下方的MM目标位
16:09 - 16:13
EN: You sell here.
ZH: 你在这里开仓做空，想要在这里止盈
16:11 - 16:13
EN: You’re trying to get out with a profit here.
ZH: 你在这里开仓做空，想要在这里止盈
16:13 - 16:15
EN: Your stop is above here.
ZH: 止损在上面
16:15 - 16:18
EN: The stop is about the same distance as the profit target,
ZH: 止损和止盈的距离大致相等
16:18 - 16:23
EN: so the risk to the stop is about the same as the reward.
ZH: 初始风险和利润大致相等
16:23 - 16:30
EN: Which is more likely: that the market will come down here to your profit target,
ZH: 哪种可能性更大？ 更有可能下跌到MM目标位，还是上涨打掉止损？
16:28 - 16:30
EN: or go up there to your stop?
ZH: 哪种可能性更大？ 更有可能下跌到MM目标位，还是上涨打掉止损？
16:31 - 16:34
EN: If you can look at this and say “It’s probably going down here,”
ZH: 如果你认为：大概率会下跌到这里
16:35 - 16:37
EN: any time you can say it probably is going to do something,
ZH: 如果你认为市场大概率会做某件事
16:37 - 16:42
EN: you have to assume you’re talking about a probability that’s at least 60%.
ZH: 大概率的意思是，至少有60%
16:42 - 16:44
EN: And that is the case here.
ZH: 也就是现在这种情况
16:44 - 16:51
EN: The risk is equal to the reward, but the probability is equal to 60% or more,
ZH: 风险等于利润，但胜率有60%甚至更高
16:51 - 17:01
EN: and therefore even though you’re exiting with a reward
ZH: 所以即使只是1倍风险，而不是两倍， 数学期望也仍然是正的
16:55 - 17:01
EN: that is as big as the risk – not twice as big as the risk
ZH: 所以即使只是1倍风险，而不是两倍， 数学期望也仍然是正的
16:59 - 17:01
EN: - the Trader’s Equation is still positive.
ZH: 所以即使只是1倍风险，而不是两倍， 数学期望也仍然是正的
17:01 - 17:04
EN: Any time you have a high probability event,
ZH: 任何高胜率的机会——60%或更高，
17:04 - 17:09
EN: a 60% chance or greater of getting a reward equal to your risk,
ZH: 即使利润只是和风险相等
17:09 - 17:12
EN: mathematically it results in a positive Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 这样的交易在数学上也足够合理
17:12 - 17:15
EN: It’s always okay to take that sell
ZH: 所以完全可以在这里卖出做空，
17:15 - 17:18
EN: and exit completely here and have your stop up here.
ZH: 准备在这里全部止盈，然后把止损放在这里
17:25 - 17:30
EN: If a bull bought this close, his target is the top of the Sell Climax.
ZH: 如果多头在它的收盘买入做多，目标是反弹到抛售高潮的起跌点
17:30 - 17:33
EN: And let’s say he used a stop just below a Measured Move down,
ZH: 然后他把止损放在MM目标位的下方
17:33 - 17:38
EN: so his reward up to here is about the same as his risk.
ZH: 那么他的利润和风险也大致相等
17:38 - 17:41
EN: However, his probability is only 40%.
ZH: 然而，他的胜率只有40%
17:42 - 17:46
EN: He has a 40% chance of making a reward as big as his risk.
ZH: 他有40%的概率能够赚到和风险相等的利润
17:46 - 17:48
EN: Do you think that’s a good Buy The Close bar?
ZH: 这是不是一个买收盘的机会？
17:48 - 17:50
EN: No, it’s a good Sell The Close bar.
ZH: 不是，这是一个买收盘的下降趋势
17:50 - 17:52
EN: The math is much better for the bears.
ZH: 空头在数学上具有优势
17:52 - 17:56
EN: The risk and reward is the same for the bulls and for the bears,
ZH: 多空双方的风险和利润都是相等的
17:56 - 18:06
EN: but the bears have a 60% chance of making a profit and the bulls only have
ZH: 但空头有60%的概率可以赚钱， 但多头只有40%的概率可以达到目标位，60%的时候止损会被打掉
18:01 - 18:06
EN: a 40% chance of achieving their goal before their stop is hit.
ZH: 但空头有60%的概率可以赚钱， 但多头只有40%的概率可以达到目标位，60%的时候止损会被打掉
18:11 - 18:15
EN: It’s important to recognize things like this early.
ZH: 尽早意识到这一点很重要
18:16 - 18:18
EN: You look at this and say, “Whoa, wait a minute”.
ZH: 你可能会想：“哦？发生什么事了？
18:18 - 18:23
EN: The market was very quiet yesterday, in a tight range,
ZH: 昨天市场很安静，没有什么波动，只是小幅的震荡， 但现在完全不一样了
18:21 - 18:23
EN: lots of reversals, and now it’s very different.
ZH: 昨天市场很安静，没有什么波动，只是小幅的震荡， 但现在完全不一样了
18:23 - 18:26
EN: Now we’re getting consecutive big bear bars.
ZH: 现在有连续的大阴线”
18:26 - 18:30
EN: Once you see that, you have to be prepared to do the right thing,
ZH: 一旦看到这种情况，就必须准备好做出正确的决定
18:30 - 18:33
EN: and one right thing is sell the close.
ZH: 此时，正确的决定就是做空
18:33 - 18:36
EN: In other words, like a second before the close, you sell the market.
ZH: 换句话说，就在它收盘前一秒，你点击“市价卖出”
18:36 - 18:39
EN: Or as soon as the bar closes, you hit “Sell the Market”
ZH: 或者在它收盘的瞬间，点击“市价卖出”
18:39 - 18:41
EN: and you get filled on the open of the next bar.
ZH: 你的订单会在下一根K线的开盘成交
18:42 - 18:46
EN: The one thing that you know is you have to sell.
ZH: 你要知道，此时必须卖出
Slide 011
Time: 18:50
Bilingual Transcript
18:55 - 18:56
EN: And this is what happened.
ZH: 这是后续的行情
18:56 - 19:02
EN: We got a bear breakout, a second leg down
ZH: 空头突破之后，有第2段下跌——1，反弹，2
18:59 - 19:02
EN: or a third leg down – one, pullback, two.
ZH: 空头突破之后，有第2段下跌——1，反弹，2
19:02 - 19:05
EN: The swing bears are holding short with their stop up here,
ZH: 波段交易者继续持有，止损放在这里
19:05 - 19:09
EN: expecting the market to get down here, which it eventually did.
ZH: 押注市场会跌到MM目标位——最终确实达到了
19:09 - 19:12
EN: It took 5 hours to get there, but it did get there.
ZH: 花了5个小时，但确实达到了目标位
19:12 - 19:17
EN: Scalping bears who sold that close might get out above this bull reversal bar
ZH: 剥头皮交易者会在这个反转阳线的上方离场
19:17 - 19:20
EN: because we have a Double Bottom and a failed breakout.
ZH: 因为这里有一个双底，可能是失败的跌破——
19:20 - 19:24
EN: So we have a Trading Range, we broke below it, and we reversed up
ZH: 震荡区间，向下跌破，但很快反转上涨
19:24 - 19:28
EN: - this bar went above that bull bar – and then we’re reversing up a second time.
ZH: 它突破了前一根阳线的高点； 现在是第2次反转上涨（注：第2次高点抬高，也可以说是高2）
19:28 - 19:33
EN: It’s a possible low of the day, and we could get a bull trend
ZH: 也许这就是今天的最低点，然后剩余时间都上涨
19:32 - 19:33
EN: for the rest of the day.
ZH: 也许这就是今天的最低点，然后剩余时间都上涨
19:33 - 19:36
EN: And the bulls got a breakout here, 2-bar breakout.
ZH: 多头制造了向上的突破，两根阳线
19:36 - 19:38
EN: But look at the size of these 2 bull bars
ZH: 但是看它们的体积
19:38 - 19:40
EN: compared to the size of the 2 bear bars.
ZH: 和前面这两根大阴线相比
19:40 - 19:42
EN: Not all that big.
ZH: 没有那么大
19:42 - 19:45
EN: This might be simply a test of yesterday’s close.
ZH: 所以可能只是对昨天收盘价的测试
19:45 - 19:47
EN: It might be a test of a 50% pullback.
ZH: 可能只是50%反弹
19:47 - 19:49
EN: It’s about 50% of the selloff.
ZH: 这里大约是下跌波段的50%
19:51 - 19:53
EN: Okay to hold short.
ZH: 所以空头仍然可以继续持有
19:53 - 19:58
EN: The bulls need maybe 1 or 2 more bull bars
ZH: 多头还需要一到两根阳线，体积更大的阳线， 才能让市场进入单边上涨的趋势
19:55 - 19:58
EN: or bigger bull bars to make it Always In Long.
ZH: 多头还需要一到两根阳线，体积更大的阳线， 才能让市场进入单边上涨的趋势
19:58 - 20:04
EN: Therefore, it’s Always In Short, which means you believe
ZH: 因此，现在仍然处于下降趋势， 也就是说更有可能下跌，而不是上涨
20:01 - 20:04
EN: it’s probably going to go down rather than up.
ZH: 因此，现在仍然处于下降趋势， 也就是说更有可能下跌，而不是上涨
20:05 - 20:10
EN: The market kept trying to reverse up all day; however, it was a bear channel,
ZH: 市场一整天都在尝试反转上涨，然而这是一个下降通道
20:10 - 20:13
EN: and you have to rely on your stop if you’re a swing trader.
ZH: 如果你是波段交易者，就必须依赖你的止损
20:13 - 20:17
EN: You get out if the market clearly becomes Always In Long,
ZH: 如果市场明显处于单边上涨的趋势，才需要提前离场
20:17 - 20:20
EN: but this is not enough to become clearly Always In Long.
ZH: 这些阳线不足以让市场进入单边上涨
20:20 - 20:24
EN: It’s close, but not enough, and therefore you hold short.
ZH: 有点接近，但还不够，所以你可以继续持有空单
Slide 012
Time: 20:30
Bilingual Transcript
20:32 - 20:35
EN: Here’s the bear breakout.
ZH: 空头突破，很强
20:34 - 20:35
EN: Strong.
ZH: 空头突破，很强
20:35 - 20:36
EN: I’m calling it a bear breakout.
ZH: 我称之为空头突破
20:36 - 20:38
EN: You can also call it a bear reversal.
ZH: 你可以说它是空头反转 （注：广义的突破指的是改变市场周期，所以反转也属于突破）
20:38 - 20:40
EN: We gapped up and reversed down.
ZH: 跳空高开，反转下跌
20:41 - 20:44
EN: We had a failed breakout above the top of a bear channel
ZH: 没有能够成功地突破下降通道的高点
20:44 - 20:47
EN: and then we had a successful breakout below a Double Bottom.
ZH: 然后迅速跌破了这个双底
20:48 - 20:52
EN: Every breakout is a climax, every reversal is a breakout,
ZH: 所有的突破都是高潮，所有的反转都是突破
20:53 - 20:55
EN: and I treat them the same.
ZH: 对我而言都是一样的
20:55 - 20:59
EN: Big bear bodies, both closing on their lows.
ZH: 体积很大，都收在最低
20:59 - 21:01
EN: That’s a sign of strong bears.
ZH: 这是空头很强壮的信号
21:03 - 21:08
EN: Very little overlap between the second big bear bar and the first bear bar.
ZH: 两根大阴线之间没有什么重叠
21:08 - 21:12
EN: A close far below the low of the past 40 or 50 bars.
ZH: 收盘价远低于过去40~50根K线的低点
21:16 - 21:19
EN: Small tails or no tails on the bottom of the bars.
ZH: 底部几乎没有什么下影线
21:22 - 21:24
EN: Context: lower prices.
ZH: 背景：价格在下跌
21:24 - 21:26
EN: We had a bull breakout that reversed down,
ZH: 跳空高开，但立刻反转下跌
21:26 - 21:30
EN: and now we’re getting a bear breakout, and we have a very strong bear breakout.
ZH: 现在出现了非常强势的空头突破
21:30 - 21:33
EN: The odds are we’re going to fall for a Measured Move down.
ZH: 大概率会下跌到MM目标位
21:34 - 21:38
EN: However, it might take hours to get to the target, and in fact, it did.
ZH: 但并不知道要多久，这里花了好几个小时才达到
Slide 013
Time: 21:40
Bilingual Transcript
21:45 - 21:48
EN: I think it’s important to always be thinking about the market cycle.
ZH: 考虑市场周期永远都是很重要的
21:48 - 21:54
EN: On any chart, only about 5% or 10% of the bars are in a strong breakout phase.
ZH: 在任何K线图上，只有大约5~10%的K线处于强势突破阶段
21:54 - 21:59
EN: Most breakouts, like this or like this, are 2 to 3 bars,
ZH: 大多数突破，都是这样，或这样，只有两三根K线
21:59 - 22:06
EN: not particularly big, and they’re either in a channel
ZH: 幅度不是很大，而且要么处于通道中，要么处于震荡区间中， 无法形成强劲的趋势
22:02 - 22:06
EN: or in a Trading Range and not going to result in a strong trend.
ZH: 幅度不是很大，而且要么处于通道中，要么处于震荡区间中， 无法形成强劲的趋势
22:10 - 22:16
EN: Only 5% of the bars are in a strong breakout
ZH: 只有5%的K线处于强势突破阶段， 能够形成新的趋势，比如这里的情况
22:13 - 22:16
EN: at the start of a trend, like what we have here.
ZH: 只有5%的K线处于强势突破阶段， 能够形成新的趋势，比如这里的情况
22:16 - 22:20
EN: Here we have about 100 bars on the screen, and we really only have 2 bars
ZH: 整个屏幕上有大约100根K线，实际上只有这两根大阴线
22:20 - 22:23
EN: that are in a very strong breakout that resulted in a trend.
ZH: 是真正强势的突破，能够开启新的趋势
22:29 - 22:30
EN: Again, we had a bear channel.
ZH: 左边是大的下降通道
22:30 - 22:33
EN: This is showing more bars to the left than what we see here.
ZH: 这张图可以看到左边更多的K线
22:34 - 22:35
EN: The bulls got a breakout above.
ZH: 向上突破了趋势线
22:35 - 22:43
EN: They were hoping that it would result in a Major Trend Reversal
ZH: 多头希望在下跌回测之后，能够制造大反转 但是这两根大阴线非常强势
22:39 - 22:43
EN: on the test back down, and instead we got a very strong reversal down here,
ZH: 多头希望在下跌回测之后，能够制造大反转 但是这两根大阴线非常强势
22:43 - 22:46
EN: and the bear channel continued.
ZH: 导致下降通道继续
Slide 014
Time: 22:50
Bilingual Transcript
22:50 - 22:56
EN: It’s, I think, very important to always be ready to draw a conclusion.
ZH: 时刻准备好做出判断是非常重要的 （注：参考12C中提到的二元决策）
22:56 - 22:59
EN: Is the market clearly Always In Long? Is it clearly Always In Short?
ZH: 市场是否明显处于单边上涨？是否明显处于单边下跌？
22:59 - 23:02
EN: And it’s good to make that decision as early as possible.
ZH: 需要尽早做出判断
23:04 - 23:07
EN: When you have this context – a failed bull breakout
ZH: 当你看到这样的背景——失败的多头突破
23:07 - 23:14
EN: and then a successful bear breakout, 2 exceptionally big bear bars
ZH: 然后成功的空头突破，两根特别大的阴线收在最低 ——大概率现在是处于单边下跌
23:11 - 23:14
EN: closing on their lows – the odds are we’re Always In Short,
ZH: 然后成功的空头突破，两根特别大的阴线收在最低 ——大概率现在是处于单边下跌
23:14 - 23:16
EN: which means you believe the market’s going lower.
ZH: 也就是说继续下跌的概率更大
Slide 015
Time: 23:30
Bilingual Transcript
23:35 - 23:37
EN: There are all kinds of ways to get short.
ZH: 有很多入场做空的方法
23:37 - 23:40
EN: Again, especially on the open of the day, you have to be prepared
ZH: 尤其是在早盘，你必须做好准备，
23:40 - 23:45
EN: for the market trying to determine the initial direction of the day.
ZH: 因为市场在尝试确定当天的方向
23:45 - 23:49
EN: And here we have a very strong reversal down from breaking
ZH: 在突破下降通道之后，市场强势地反转下跌，
23:48 - 23:56
EN: above the bear channel, and some bears would sell either
ZH: 在突破下降通道之后，市场强势地反转下跌， 一些空头会在它的收盘卖出，或者在它的低点下方挂突破卖单
23:53 - 23:56
EN: at the close of this bar or below its low.
ZH: 一些空头会在它的收盘卖出，或者在它的低点下方挂突破卖单
23:56 - 23:59
EN: For example, if you waited for this bar to close
ZH: 例如，在它收盘的时候，
23:59 - 24:02
EN: and you saw it closing exactly on its low, you might hit “Sell the Market”
ZH: 你发现它收在最低，此时可以点击“市价卖出”
24:02 - 24:05
EN: and then you get filled on the open of the next bar.
ZH: 你的订单会在下一根K线的开盘成交
24:05 - 24:10
EN: Whenever you cannot decide how to sell and you feel like
ZH: 如果你不知道怎么入场，但又感觉： “哎呦，暴跌了，我应该做空”
24:08 - 24:15
EN: “Oh boy, it’s going down, I’ve got to sell,” easiest thing to do is look
ZH: 如果你不知道怎么入场，但又感觉： “哎呦，暴跌了，我应该做空” 最简单的做法就是确定止损的位置（计算仓位） 然后点击“市价卖出”
24:12 - 24:15
EN: where your stop has to be and just hit “Sell the Market.”
ZH: 最简单的做法就是确定止损的位置（计算仓位） 然后点击“市价卖出”
24:19 - 24:21
EN: Some bears will add to their shorts as it’s falling.
ZH: 一些空头会在下跌时继续卖出
24:21 - 24:25
EN: They’re pressing their bets, and they’ll increase their position size.
ZH: 他们在加注、加大仓位
24:25 - 24:27
EN: They’re scaling into a winning trade.
ZH: 他们在盈利加仓
24:29 - 24:33
EN: Some bears will sell with a stop on the break below yesterday’s low,
ZH: 一些空头会在昨天的最低点下方挂突破卖单
24:33 - 24:37
EN: especially after such a big bear bar, betting that the market will fall
ZH: 特别是在这么大的大阴线之后，他们押注会有足够大的跌幅
24:37 - 24:39
EN: at least far enough for a profitable scalp.
ZH: 至少让他们做一笔剥头皮交易
24:43 - 24:47
EN: Consecutive big bear bars closing on their lows, good context
ZH: 连续的大阴线收在最低，背景很好——
24:47 - 24:51
EN: - it’s a Sell The Close bear trend, so the bears will sell bear closes
ZH: 这是卖收盘的下降趋势，所以空头会在阴线的收盘卖出
24:51 - 24:54
EN: - the close of this bar, the close of that bar, the close of this bar
ZH: ——它的收盘，它的收盘，它的收盘
24:54 - 24:57
EN: - but they use the appropriate stop up here.
ZH: 他们会设置正确的止损
25:01 - 25:03
EN: We were trying to get a reversal.
ZH: 多头尝试反转
25:03 - 25:05
EN: A failed breakout below yesterday’s low.
ZH: 从昨天的低点下方反转上涨
25:05 - 25:08
EN: Would I buy that, hoping for an opening reversal up?
ZH: 我会在这里做多，押注开盘的反转上涨吗？ （注：在第48单元会讲到，开盘的第1个趋势不管多强，都有可能会被反转）
25:08 - 25:11
EN: I would want at least a Micro Double Bottom,
ZH: 我希望至少有一个小双底
25:11 - 25:14
EN: and therefore even though it’s a bull bar closing on its high,
ZH: 所以即使它是收在高位的阳线，
25:14 - 25:18
EN: probably more sellers above the high of this bar than buyers.
ZH: 在它的上方大概率会有更多卖盘，而不是买盘
25:19 - 25:31
EN: Also, any time the market is making an attempt to reverse
ZH: 另外，每当市场尝试反转，会有人押注反转失败， 一些空头会在大阳线的收盘卖出，比如这里、这里、这里和这里
25:23 - 25:31
EN: and you think the reversal will fail, some bears will sell the close
ZH: 另外，每当市场尝试反转，会有人押注反转失败， 一些空头会在大阳线的收盘卖出，比如这里、这里、这里和这里
25:27 - 25:31
EN: of strong bull bars, like here and like here and like here and like here,
ZH: 另外，每当市场尝试反转，会有人押注反转失败， 一些空头会在大阳线的收盘卖出，比如这里、这里、这里和这里
25:31 - 25:34
EN: betting that all of these reversal attempts will fail
ZH: 押注所有这些反转的尝试都会失败
25:34 - 25:38
EN: and be the end of the reversal attempt and the start of trend resumption down.
ZH: 押注反弹结束、下降趋势恢复
25:42 - 25:48
EN: Again, you could bet that the reversal is minor and therefore a bear flag,
ZH: 再讲一遍，你可以押注这只是小反弹，也就是熊旗
25:48 - 25:52
EN: and traders will sell above the high of the bar, even if it’s a bull bar,
ZH: 所以空头会在K线的高点上方挂单卖出，尽管它是阳线，
25:52 - 25:55
EN: betting that the market will fall at least enough for a scalp.
ZH: 他们押注会有足够的跌幅，至少能够做一笔剥头皮交易
25:59 - 26:02
EN: Traders will also sell below the low of any pullback,
ZH: 空头也会在反弹的低点下方挂突破卖单
26:02 - 26:06
EN: betting that it’s a bear flag and that the market will continue down.
ZH: 押注它是熊旗，市场会继续下跌
26:06 - 26:07
EN: Here, a doji bar.
ZH: 这里有一个十字星
26:07 - 26:10
EN: After the bear breakout, we had a little bounce.
ZH: 是空头突破之后的暂停
26:10 - 26:14
EN: The bear trend resumed, and then we have another bounce up to that same level.
ZH: 下降趋势继续，然后再次反弹到这个价格
26:14 - 26:16
EN: It’s a small Double Top bear flag.
ZH: 这是一个小的双顶熊旗
26:16 - 26:19
EN: If you want, you could simply call it a Low 1 short
ZH: 也可以说它是低1做空入场点——
26:19 - 26:24
EN: - a pullback and then a resumption down below the low of this inside bar.
ZH: 反弹，然后这根孕线的最低点被跌破
26:27 - 26:30
EN: It doesn’t matter which of the shorts that you took.
ZH: 不论你在哪里入场做空
Slide 016
Time: 26:30
Bilingual Transcript
26:30 - 26:34
EN: You place your stop above the most recent major Lower High.
ZH: 止损都在最近的重要高点上方
26:34 - 26:38
EN: And if you sold anywhere in here, look to the left.
ZH: 如果你在这里的任何地方开仓做空，看左边
26:38 - 26:41
EN: Where’s the most recent major Lower High?
ZH: 最近一个重要高点在哪里？
26:41 - 26:46
EN: It’s here, and therefore no matter where you sold, your stop is up here.
ZH: 在这里，因此无论你在哪里开仓，初始止损都应该放在这里
26:46 - 26:51
EN: The stop has to do with the price action, not your entry price.
ZH: 止损的位置只和价格行为有关，和你入场的价格无关
26:55 - 27:01
EN: When the market’s in a bear trend, it spends most of its time
ZH: 当市场处于下降趋势时， 它大部分时间都在最近一次强势下跌的低点附近
26:58 - 27:01
EN: near the bottom of the most recent strong leg.
ZH: 当市场处于下降趋势时， 它大部分时间都在最近一次强势下跌的低点附近
27:06 - 27:09
EN: Beginners, the one thing they always think about is risk.
ZH: 新手的脑子里面总是只有风险
27:09 - 27:12
EN: They’re so afraid of losing their account,
ZH: 他们非常害怕亏钱
27:12 - 27:16
EN: they tend to ignore probability and they tend to ignore reward.
ZH: 导致经常会忽视概率和利润
27:17 - 27:20
EN: And the result is they end up using very small stops,
ZH: 结果，他们一直用很窄的止损做逆势交易
27:20 - 27:26
EN: and they repeatedly discover that they’re getting stopped out
ZH: 然后在长期的趋势中，不断被止损离场
27:22 - 27:26
EN: of trends that go on a long way.
ZH: 然后在长期的趋势中，不断被止损离场
27:28 - 27:31
EN: When you’re getting a pullback like this, who’s causing that pullback?
ZH: 像这样的反弹，形成的原因是什么？
27:31 - 27:36
EN: Is it institutional strong bulls betting that the reversal will be major?
ZH: 是机构强势做多，押注会有大反转吗？
27:36 - 27:38
EN: No, it’s bears taking partial profits.
ZH: 不是，是一部分空头在减仓
27:38 - 27:40
EN: Their stop is far away.
ZH: 因为止损离得太远了
27:40 - 27:43
EN: They’re taking some profits to reduce their position size.
ZH: 他们需要止盈一部分，减小仓位
27:43 - 27:50
EN: The reversal is probably minor, and the bears will sell again
ZH: 大概率只是小反弹，如果发现多头已经放弃，这些空头就会再次入场
27:47 - 27:50
EN: as soon as they believe the bulls have given up.
ZH: 大概率只是小反弹，如果发现多头已经放弃，这些空头就会再次入场
27:56 - 27:58
EN: Experts are selling for any reason.
ZH: 有经验的交易者会用任何方式入场做空
27:58 - 28:03
EN: Beginners are waiting for a perfect sell setup, a perfect pullback,
ZH: 而新手总是在等待一个完美的做空入场点，在等一个完美的反弹
28:03 - 28:05
EN: but it never is going to look good enough.
ZH: 但现实永远不会有那么完美
28:05 - 28:09
EN: Do you want to sell after 2 bull bars? The beginner does not.
ZH: 在两根阳线之后卖出做空？新手不敢这么做
28:09 - 28:12
EN: Do you want to sell after a reversal up from a Micro Double Bottom?
ZH: 小双底，反弹，开仓做空吗？
28:12 - 28:14
EN: The beginner does not.
ZH: 新手也不敢
28:14 - 28:18
EN: You want to sell after this bull breakout? The beginner does not.
ZH: 在这两根阳线之后卖出做空？新手不敢
28:18 - 28:20
EN: But the experts are selling for any reason,
ZH: 但专业的交易者会用各种方式卖出做空
28:20 - 28:25
EN: betting that any of these reversals after a very Tight Channel will be minor,
ZH: 押注所有的这些上涨——在强势的空头突破之后——都只是反弹而已
28:25 - 28:28
EN: and that means they’ll either be a bull leg in a Trading Range
ZH: 也就是说，它们要么是震荡区间内的上涨波段
28:28 - 28:32
EN: or a bear flag leading to a resumption of the bear trend.
ZH: 要么只是熊旗，然后下降趋势恢复
28:38 - 28:40
EN: I began by talking about weak breakouts.
ZH: 这节课我先讲解了弱突破
Slide 017
Time: 28:40
Bilingual Transcript
28:40 - 28:43
EN: I talked about weak bull breakouts in this particular video.
ZH: 主要讲了较弱的多头突破
28:44 - 28:47
EN: Whenever a breakout is weak, especially if there’s a deep pullback,
ZH: 如果突破比较弱，尤其是有深度回调的时候，
28:47 - 28:54
EN: bulls begin to wonder if the breakout will lead to a Trading Range
ZH: 多头会开始怀疑，是否会变成震荡区间，而不是强上涨趋势
28:52 - 28:54
EN: instead of into a strong bull trend.
ZH: 多头会开始怀疑，是否会变成震荡区间，而不是强上涨趋势
28:55 - 28:58
EN: They’re still willing to buy the breakout, even if it does look weak,
ZH: 尽管突破没有那么强，但他们仍然愿意追涨
28:58 - 29:01
EN: confident that the first reversal down will be minor
ZH: 他们相信第1次下跌只是小反转
29:01 - 29:06
EN: - which means either a bull flag and an immediate resumption of the bull trend
ZH: ——要么是牛旗，上涨趋势很快就恢复
29:06 - 29:11
EN: - or the pullback will be deep, in which case a Trading Range
ZH: ——要么是深度回调，此时更有可能变成震荡区间，而不再是上涨趋势
29:09 - 29:11
EN: is more likely than a bull trend.
ZH: ——要么是深度回调，此时更有可能变成震荡区间，而不再是上涨趋势
29:11 - 29:13
EN: If it’s a Trading Range, they can buy more lower,
ZH: 如果是震荡区间，他们可以逢低买入更多
29:13 - 29:20
EN: expecting it to get back to their first entry, where they can get out breakeven
ZH: 期待价格涨回到他们的初始入场点， 这样他们的初始仓位可以打平，加仓的部分可以赚钱
29:17 - 29:20
EN: on their first entry and with a profit on their lower entry.
ZH: 期待价格涨回到他们的初始入场点， 这样他们的初始仓位可以打平，加仓的部分可以赚钱
29:22 - 29:24
EN: I also began a discussion on bear breakouts,
ZH: 我也讲到了空头突破
29:24 - 29:30
EN: and once you think a breakout is very strong, there’s a 60% chance it’ll fall
ZH: 当你认为突破非常强势，那么有60%的概率，
29:30 - 29:35
EN: for some kind of a Measured Move before it rallies back up
ZH: 市场会跌到某个MM目标位， 而不是先上涨到起跌点、打掉空头的止损
29:33 - 29:35
EN: to the top of the breakout and hits your stop.
ZH: 市场会跌到某个MM目标位， 而不是先上涨到起跌点、打掉空头的止损
29:39 - 29:40
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
29:40 - 29:43
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课
29:43 - 29:46
EN: This is the third of four videos on trading breakouts.
ZH: 如何交易突破行情的第3节课，就先讲到这里