al-brooks-course
42B - Trading Climactic Reversals (Failed Breakouts)
Raw transcript and slide notes for 42B - Trading Climactic Reversals (Failed Breakouts).
Overview
- Slides: 18
- Transcript segments: 609
- Status: 自动按 slide 时间线归档；核心概念和长期笔记可以在每个 slide 的
Study Notes下继续整理。
Source Media
Transcript 001
Time: 00:02
Bilingual Transcript
00:02 - 00:03
EN: This is Al Brooks.
ZH: 你好，我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
00:03 - 00:05
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程
00:05 - 00:09
EN: This is the second of three videos on trading climactic reversals.
ZH: 这是如何交易高潮反转的第2节课
Slide 001
Time: 00:11
Bilingual Transcript
00:13 - 00:16
EN: Some climactic reversals lead to changes in trend,
ZH: 一些高潮反转会导致趋势的变化
00:16 - 00:19
EN: and I call those major climactic reversals.
ZH: 我称之为重要的高潮反转
00:20 - 00:25
EN: And then I also want to talk about a climax
ZH: 然后我会讲到，有一种高潮是基于时间， 而不是价格——即微通道
00:22 - 00:25
EN: based upon time more than price – a Micro Channel.
ZH: 然后我会讲到，有一种高潮是基于时间， 而不是价格——即微通道
Slide 002
Time: 00:27
Bilingual Transcript
00:29 - 00:33
EN: A major climax is a big breakout late in a trend.
ZH: 重要的高潮是指发生在趋势后期的巨大突破
00:38 - 00:42
EN: Because these climaxes can result in an opposite trend,
ZH: 因为这些高潮可能导致相反的趋势
00:42 - 00:45
EN: I’m calling them major climactic reversals.
ZH: 所以我称之为重要的高潮反转
00:48 - 00:51
EN: Remember, every trend bar is a breakout.
ZH: 每根趋势K线都是一次突破
00:51 - 00:53
EN: Every trend bar is a climax.
ZH: 每根趋势K线都是一次高潮
00:54 - 00:58
EN: Depending on context, I may simply call a trend bar, a trend bar.
ZH: 根据该趋势K线所处的背景，有时我会直接称之为趋势K线
00:58 - 01:01
EN: I may call it a breakout, I may call it a reversal.
ZH: 有时是突破，有时是反转
01:01 - 01:06
EN: If it’s one or more big trend bars occurring 20 or more bars into a trend,
ZH: 如果趋势已经持续了至少20根K线， 再出现一根或多根大的趋势K线
01:07 - 01:10
EN: there’s a 60% chance it’s going to lead to a climactic reversal,
ZH: 有60%的概率会导致高潮反转——
01:10 - 01:14
EN: which usually means a Trading Range and sometimes an opposite trend.
ZH: 市场通常会进入震荡区间，有时会进入相反的趋势
01:17 - 01:23
EN: At a minimum, when you see a big breakout late in a trend – here a bear trend,
ZH: 至少，当你看到趋势后期的巨大突破——比如这里的下降趋势，
01:23 - 01:29
EN: here a bull trend – you have to be thinking about exiting your trades
ZH: 这里是上涨趋势——你必须考虑止盈离场， 并且考虑反转的交易机会
01:26 - 01:29
EN: in the direction of the trend and considering trades in the opposite direction.
ZH: 这里是上涨趋势——你必须考虑止盈离场， 并且考虑反转的交易机会
01:34 - 01:38
EN: If you sold for any reason and then you see a breakout – here, a pair of bars,
ZH: 如果你在这里某个地方卖出做空了， 然后看到这样的突破——这两根阴线
01:38 - 01:42
EN: the biggest pair of bear bars pretty much since early in the trend,
ZH: 几乎是整个趋势最大的两根阴线
01:42 - 01:45
EN: especially after a Trading Range, which might be the Final Flag,
ZH: 尤其它们的左边是一个震荡区间——有可能是末端熊旗
01:45 - 01:48
EN: you have to be thinking that it might be a climactic end of the trend.
ZH: 你必须考虑这可能是趋势结束前的抛售高潮
01:48 - 01:53
EN: And if you see a reasonable reversal – here,
ZH: 如果你看到一个合理的反转—— 这里，抛售高潮之后是两根阳线
01:50 - 01:53
EN: a pair of bull bars following the bear breakout bars –
ZH: 如果你看到一个合理的反转—— 这里，抛售高潮之后是两根阳线
01:53 - 01:56
EN: it’s reasonable to exit at least part or all of your trade.
ZH: 空头止盈部分或全部仓位是合理的
02:00 - 02:03
EN: If you want a high probability trade in the opposite direction,
ZH: 如果你想要高胜率的反转机会
02:03 - 02:06
EN: you wait until you get a strong breakout in the opposite direction.
ZH: 可以等看到强势的反转再入场
02:06 - 02:08
EN: We’re trying to reverse up here, not all that strong.
ZH: 尝试在这里反转，不算特别强势
02:08 - 02:10
EN: It still might be a bear flag.
ZH: 它仍然可能只是熊旗
02:10 - 02:12
EN: But then we get a breakout and a follow-through bar.
ZH: 但这里大阳线突破，而且有跟随的阳线
02:13 - 02:16
EN: Some traders like to wait for a strong breakout with follow-through
ZH: 一些交易者喜欢等待强势突破后的跟随
02:16 - 02:19
EN: and then enter because then the probability is higher.
ZH: 然后再入场，因为那时的胜率更高
02:20 - 02:24
EN: However, the later you enter, the further the stop is,
ZH: 然而，入场越晚，止损越远，也就是说风险更大
02:22 - 02:24
EN: and that means the risk is greater.
ZH: 然而，入场越晚，止损越远，也就是说风险更大
02:24 - 02:27
EN: That’s always the case; whenever you wait for a higher probability trade,
ZH: 总是这么矛盾：每当你等待更高胜率的机会
02:27 - 02:30
EN: your risk/reward profile is going to be worse.
ZH: 盈亏比就会变得更差
02:34 - 02:37
EN: Climaxes often lead to reversals,
ZH: 高潮经常导致反转
02:38 - 02:41
EN: especially if the context is good for a reversal.
ZH: 尤其是背景有利于反转的话
02:44 - 02:47
EN: Here we have a bull trend, we have a good bull breakout,
ZH: 上涨趋势，很不错的多头突破
02:47 - 02:51
EN: and we have three pushes up – one, two or two, and then three.
ZH: 然后有3次向上的推动——1，2，或者2，然后3
02:51 - 02:56
EN: And then we have the biggest bull bar occurring
ZH: 然后出现了上涨趋势20根K线以来最大的大阳线
02:54 - 02:56
EN: about 20 bars into the bull trend.
ZH: 然后出现了上涨趋势20根K线以来最大的大阳线
02:56 - 03:01
EN: Also, it might be simply a buy vacuum test of the high.
ZH: 同时，它可能只是对前期高点的真空测试
03:02 - 03:08
EN: Whenever you see a particularly strong bull bar 20
ZH: 当趋势已经持续了至少20根K线， 再看到特别强势的大阳线，它有可能是测量型缺口——
03:05 - 03:08
EN: or more bars into the trend, it might be a Measuring Gap.
ZH: 当趋势已经持续了至少20根K线， 再看到特别强势的大阳线，它有可能是测量型缺口——
03:08 - 03:11
EN: 40% chance it’ll lead to a strong trend up,
ZH: 40%的概率会进入强势的上涨趋势
03:11 - 03:14
EN: but 60% chance it’s going to be an Exhaustion Gap.
ZH: 但60%的概率它会是竭尽型缺口
03:15 - 03:17
EN: Here we have a follow-through bar (good for the bulls),
ZH: 尽管这里有跟随K线（对多头有利）
03:17 - 03:21
EN: but then look at the next bar, a bear bar closing below its midpoint.
ZH: 但是看下一根K线——阴线收在一半以下
03:21 - 03:24
EN: A lot of the bulls will exit below that low,
ZH: 很多多头会在它的下方离场
03:24 - 03:26
EN: and a lot of the bears will go short,
ZH: 很多空头会入场做空
03:26 - 03:29
EN: thinking that it’s more likely an Exhaustion Gap.
ZH: 认为这更有可能是一个竭尽型缺口
03:29 - 03:33
EN: The gap at this point is the low of this bar and the high of the breakout point.
ZH: 此时的缺口是这根K线的低点到突破点之间的空隙
03:33 - 03:42
EN: 60% chance we’re going to get a reversal down to that level.
ZH: 60%的概率会下跌到那个价格， 然后跌到抢购高潮的起涨点
03:37 - 03:42
EN: Probably a 60% chance we’ll get a reversal down to the bottom of the Buy Climax.
ZH: 60%的概率会下跌到那个价格， 然后跌到抢购高潮的起涨点
03:43 - 03:49
EN: Since this looks like a Trading Range – we went down, we went up,
ZH: 由于左边的背景看起来像是震荡区间—— 下跌，上涨，下跌，上涨——可能会有较大的反转
03:45 - 03:49
EN: we went down, we went up – we may get a fairly deep reversal.
ZH: 由于左边的背景看起来像是震荡区间—— 下跌，上涨，下跌，上涨——可能会有较大的反转
03:52 - 03:55
EN: Parabolic Wedge, one, two, three,
ZH: 抛物线楔形——1，2，3
03:55 - 03:57
EN: and we’re getting a bull breakout above a bull channel.
ZH: 尝试加速突破上涨通道
03:57 - 03:59
EN: Typically fails within about 5 bars.
ZH: 通常在5根K线之内会失败
04:00 - 04:03
EN: And when you get a dramatic breakout late in a trend,
ZH: 当你看到趋势后期的剧烈突破
04:03 - 04:07
EN: the first target is the bottom of the Buy Climax,
ZH: 第一个反转的目标就是抢购高潮的起涨点
04:07 - 04:12
EN: and then if it keeps going down, the next target is a Measured Move down
ZH: 如果它继续下跌，下一个目标是基于抢购高潮高度的反向MM
04:10 - 04:12
EN: based upon the height of that Buy Climax.
ZH: 如果它继续下跌，下一个目标是基于抢购高潮高度的反向MM
Slide 003
Time: 04:15
Bilingual Transcript
04:21 - 04:25
EN: After a strong breakout like this, a lot of bulls will raise their stop.
ZH: 在这么强的突破之后，许多多头会抬高他们的止损
04:25 - 04:29
EN: It’s a major Higher Low, and if the bull trend is good,
ZH: 这是一个重要的低点，如果上涨趋势保持良好，
04:29 - 04:31
EN: it should not fall below a major Higher Low.
ZH: 就不应该跌破重要的低点
04:31 - 04:34
EN: If it reverses down, it should form another Higher Low
ZH: 就算回调下跌，也应该形成更高的低点
04:34 - 04:37
EN: if the bull trend is still valid.
ZH: 那么趋势就仍然成立
04:38 - 04:43
EN: If it’s no longer a bull trend and has evolved into either a Trading Range
ZH: 如果它不再是上涨趋势，而是已经演变成震荡区间或下降趋势
04:42 - 04:46
EN: or a bear trend, it probably is going to fall below that stop level.
ZH: 如果它不再是上涨趋势，而是已经演变成震荡区间或下降趋势 那么这个止损位置大概率是会跌破的
04:46 - 04:50
EN: And therefore, if you’re holding long at this point
ZH: 因此，如果此时你持有多头仓位
04:50 - 04:53
EN: - let’s say you bought for any reason - if you’re holding long at this point
ZH: ——假设之前你在某个地方买入了，现在仍然继续持有，
04:53 - 04:57
EN: and you did not exit here, a lot of bulls will get out below the bottom
ZH: 而且没有在这里离场，很多人会在抢购高潮的起涨点下方离场
04:57 - 05:02
EN: of this Buy Climax, because at that point they know
ZH: 因为他们知道，此时不再是一个强势的上涨趋势
05:00 - 05:02
EN: it’s no longer a strong bull trend,
ZH: 因为他们知道，此时不再是一个强势的上涨趋势
05:02 - 05:05
EN: and they were holding long on the premise that it is.
ZH: 他们继续持有的前提已经不成立了
05:11 - 05:17
EN: When the context is good, there’s a 60% chance
ZH: 如果背景良好，60%的概率会有10根K线、两段下跌或横盘
05:14 - 05:17
EN: of 10 bars and two legs sideways to down.
ZH: 如果背景良好，60%的概率会有10根K线、两段下跌或横盘
05:17 - 05:19
EN: First target, the bottom of the Buy Climax.
ZH: 第1个目标，抢购高潮的起涨点
05:19 - 05:21
EN: Here, a very Tight Channel.
ZH: 这里的下降通道很窄
05:21 - 05:24
EN: Is this Leg 1, pullback, Leg 2? Probably not.
ZH: 1，反弹，2，仅此而已嘛？大概率不是
05:24 - 05:28
EN: When the channel is very tight, it’s usually the first leg down,
ZH: 如果通道很窄，这通常是第1段下跌
05:28 - 05:31
EN: and then we have a pullback and then a second leg down here.
ZH: 然后有一些反弹，再是第2段下跌
05:35 - 05:39
EN: When I see a bar like this, especially with that tail on top,
ZH: 当我看到这样的K线（趋势后期的抢购高潮）， 尤其它还有上影线
05:39 - 05:47
EN: I’m either looking to sell that bar or getting ready to sell within a bar
ZH: 我要么在它的收盘卖出，或者准备在一两根K线之内卖出， 或者在跟随K线的低点下方挂突破卖单
05:43 - 05:47
EN: or two after that, or below the low of the follow-up bar.
ZH: 我要么在它的收盘卖出，或者准备在一两根K线之内卖出， 或者在跟随K线的低点下方挂突破卖单
05:47 - 05:51
EN: I would not sell below that bull bar typically, because it closed on its high.
ZH: 当然，我不会在这根阳线下方卖出，因为它收在最高
05:51 - 05:58
EN: But once you see a bear bar closing below its midpoint
ZH: 不过一旦看到阴线，有一定的体积，收在一半以下， 许多交易者会卖出
05:54 - 05:58
EN: and having a reasonable size body, a lot of traders are going to sell.
ZH: 不过一旦看到阴线，有一定的体积，收在一半以下， 许多交易者会卖出
05:58 - 06:00
EN: They’re going to sell at the market.
ZH: 他们会实价卖出
06:01 - 06:04
EN: Look at the open of this bar compared to the close of that bar.
ZH: 看这根K线的开盘价，和前一根K线的收盘价
06:04 - 06:12
EN: It’s below that close, and that tells you that as soon
ZH: 它跳空低开了，这说明当交易者看到这根阴线收在一半以下， 很多人就立刻点击“市价卖出”
06:07 - 06:12
EN: as traders saw this bear bar closing below its midpoint,
ZH: 它跳空低开了，这说明当交易者看到这根阴线收在一半以下， 很多人就立刻点击“市价卖出”
06:10 - 06:12
EN: a lot of traders just sold at the market.
ZH: 它跳空低开了，这说明当交易者看到这根阴线收在一半以下， 很多人就立刻点击“市价卖出”
06:12 - 06:15
EN: Some of those are bulls who bought for any reason,
ZH: 其中一些是之前买入的多头
06:15 - 06:20
EN: and others are bears expecting a test down here and maybe a swing down.
ZH: 另外一些人是期望至少测试起涨点，甚至形成下跌波段的空头
06:21 - 06:25
EN: For the bears, it is a possible 2nd Leg Trap.
ZH: 在一些空头的视角里，这是潜在的第2段陷阱
06:25 - 06:27
EN: This is really a two-legged first leg up.
ZH: 这是第2段陷阱中的第一段上涨
06:27 - 06:31
EN: Is it a 2nd Leg Trap? Is it one, pullback, two?
ZH: （空头想）这是不是第2段陷阱？是不是1，回调，2？
06:32 - 06:35
EN: Whenever I see a strong breakout in what might be a Trading Range,
ZH: 每当我看到震荡区间中的强势突破
06:35 - 06:38
EN: I always think that it might be a 2nd Leg Trap.
ZH: 我总是考虑到第2段陷阱的可能性
06:38 - 06:41
EN: Here it’s a third leg up, but it’s still basically the same principle.
ZH: 这里其实是第3段上涨，但基本的原理是一样的
06:41 - 06:45
EN: The market is going from Trading Range behavior
ZH: 市场从震荡区间中，尝试突破进入趋势
06:43 - 06:45
EN: and trying to break into a trend.
ZH: 市场从震荡区间中，尝试突破进入趋势
06:45 - 06:53
EN: Most Trading Range breakouts fail, and therefore when you get a strong breakout
ZH: 震荡区间大多数的突破都会失败， 所以当你看到区间顶部附近的大阳线， 它更有可能是第2段陷阱
06:50 - 06:53
EN: near the top of a Trading Range, it’s more likely a 2nd Leg Trap,
ZH: 所以当你看到区间顶部附近的大阳线， 它更有可能是第2段陷阱
06:53 - 06:56
EN: trapping traders into buying too high.
ZH: 诱使交易者在高位买入
07:00 - 07:08
EN: If I’m long and I see we’re up here, I might take profits on the close
ZH: 如果我做多了，现在看到处于区间顶部， 我会在它的收盘，或者它的收盘卖出止盈
07:06 - 07:08
EN: of either this bull bar or the close of that bull bar.
ZH: 如果我做多了，现在看到处于区间顶部， 我会在它的收盘，或者它的收盘卖出止盈
07:08 - 07:12
EN: More likely I’m going to sell out of longs on the close of this bar
ZH: 更有可能的是，我会在这根K线的收盘价
07:12 - 07:14
EN: or below the low of the bear bar.
ZH: 或者这根阴线的下方卖出
07:14 - 07:16
EN: And bears will do the opposite.
ZH: 空头当然也在卖出
07:23 - 07:27
EN: Some traders, instead of waiting for their stop to be hit,
ZH: 一些多头，不会让他们的保护性止损被打到
07:27 - 07:34
EN: once they’ve seen 3 decent bear bars with 1 or 2 of them
ZH: 一旦他们看到3根不错的阴线， 其中一两根有较大的体积，收盘在一半以下
07:31 - 07:34
EN: having decent size bodies closing below their midpoints,
ZH: 一旦他们看到3根不错的阴线， 其中一两根有较大的体积，收盘在一半以下
07:34 - 07:35
EN: they’ll just sell at the market.
ZH: 他们就会直接市价卖出
07:35 - 07:37
EN: Or here, you have a bull flag.
ZH: 或者在这里，有一个牛旗
07:37 - 07:41
EN: We have a High 1 bull flag, but after 3 decent bear bars and a Buy Climax
ZH: 它是高1牛旗，但左边是抢购高潮之后的连续3根阴线
07:41 - 07:46
EN: and only a doji buy signal bar, chances are there are sellers above
ZH: 买入信号K仅仅只是十字星，所以上方会有人逢高卖出
07:46 - 07:48
EN: for at least a small second leg down.
ZH: 押注至少有小的第2段下跌
07:48 - 07:53
EN: A lot of bulls who did not exit on these closes or on the close of the bear bar
ZH: 有些多头没有在抢购高潮时离场， 没有在阴线的收盘或下方离场
07:52 - 07:57
EN: or below the bear bar, once they see the 3 bear bars,
ZH: 有些多头没有在抢购高潮时离场， 没有在阴线的收盘或下方离场 当他们看到连续3根阴线之后，他们会在阴线的收盘卖出，
07:55 - 07:57
EN: they’re going to exit on the close of the bear bar
ZH: 当他们看到连续3根阴线之后，他们会在阴线的收盘卖出，
07:57 - 08:00
EN: or above the high of the prior bar, and they’ll get out here.
ZH: 或是在前一根K线的高点挂限价卖单， 订单会在这里成交、离场
Slide 004
Time: 08:02
Bilingual Transcript
08:10 - 08:12
EN: This bar is a surprise.
ZH: 这根K线是一个惊喜
08:12 - 08:17
EN: The market’s going up and then all of a sudden
ZH: 市场在上涨，然后突然出现了趋势后期最大的大阳线
08:14 - 08:17
EN: we have the biggest bull bar late in a bull trend.
ZH: 市场在上涨，然后突然出现了趋势后期最大的大阳线
08:17 - 08:21
EN: At the moment that it closes, there’s a gap between the close of the bar
ZH: 在它收盘之后，它的收盘价和前一根K线的高点之间有缺口
08:21 - 08:26
EN: and the high of this bar, and a gap between the close
ZH: 它的高点到它自己的低点之间，也是缺口
08:24 - 08:26
EN: of the bar and the low of the bar.
ZH: 它的高点到它自己的低点之间，也是缺口
08:27 - 08:30
EN: I mention that because that is the Exhaustion Gap.
ZH: 之所以这么说，是因为它是竭尽型缺口
08:30 - 08:35
EN: If the market trades back below this bar by more than 2 or 3 ticks,
ZH: 如果市场下跌，跌破它的低点2或3个ticks
08:35 - 08:39
EN: then this is probably an exhaustive end of the bull trend
ZH: 那么它就是上涨趋势末期的竭尽型缺口
08:39 - 08:43
EN: and not a Measuring Gap that would lead to a Measured Move up.
ZH: 而不是测量型缺口——继续上涨到MM目标位
08:43 - 08:48
EN: If it were a Measuring Gap, you’d expect any pullback to stay
ZH: 如果这真的是测量型缺口，多头希望回调不超过这个突破点
08:47 - 08:50
EN: above this breakout point, and then the market resume up,
ZH: 如果这真的是测量型缺口，多头希望回调不超过这个突破点 然后市场恢复上涨
08:50 - 08:54
EN: and you’d get a Measured Move up maybe from this low to this high
ZH: 涨到某个MM目标位，比如从这个低点到这个高点（往上翻一倍）
08:54 - 08:57
EN: or from this low to this high.
ZH: 或者从这个低点到这个高点（往上翻一倍）
08:57 - 08:58
EN: But look to the left.
ZH: 但是看左边的背景
08:58 - 09:01
EN: You have the biggest bull bar in a bull trend
ZH: 这是上涨趋势中最大的大阳线
09:01 - 09:03
EN: and you’re still in a Trading Range.
ZH: 此时仍然处于区间内部 （注：还没有明确突破区间的顶部）
09:03 - 09:05
EN: You’re trying to break above a channel.
ZH: 尝试加速突破上涨通道
09:05 - 09:07
EN: I don’t have the line drawn.
ZH: 我这里没有画通道线
09:07 - 09:11
EN: But at the moment that this bar closes, when you look at this context,
ZH: 但在这根K线收盘时，结合左边的背景
09:12 - 09:16
EN: 60% chance it’s going to be an exhaustive end of the trend
ZH: 60%的概率这是趋势衰竭前的抢购高潮
09:16 - 09:18
EN: - in other words, it’s probably the end of the trend,
ZH: 换句话说，趋势即将结束
09:18 - 09:22
EN: and it will fall below the bottom of the Buy Climax
ZH: 价格会跌破抢购高潮的起涨点
09:22 - 09:25
EN: instead of going up for some kind of a Measured Move.
ZH: 而不是继续上涨到某个MM目标位
09:27 - 09:28
EN: This is a surprise.
ZH: 它是惊喜K线
09:29 - 09:32
EN: Whenever the market does something that is surprising,
ZH: 每当市场做出令人惊讶的事情时
09:32 - 09:34
EN: the bulls usually need some kind of confirmation.
ZH: 多头通常需要某种确认
09:34 - 09:39
EN: They want to see the market come down, test, and resume back up.
ZH: 他们想看到市场下跌，回测，然后恢复上涨
09:39 - 09:44
EN: The test could go all the way back down to the bottom of the Buy Climax bar,
ZH: 可能会一直回测到抢购高潮的起涨点
09:44 - 09:51
EN: but if it goes more than 2 ticks below, then probably this is not going to lead
ZH: 但如果跌破超过2个ticks，那么就很难再涨到MM目标位了
09:50 - 09:54
EN: to a Measured Move up and the bull trend probably has ended.
ZH: 但如果跌破超过2个ticks，那么就很难再涨到MM目标位了 上涨趋势大概率已经结束
09:54 - 10:02
EN: Will the bulls buy again? They bought very aggressively
ZH: 多头会再次买入吗？ 他们之前在这个价格激进地、非常强势地买入
09:58 - 10:02
EN: and surprisingly strongly starting at this price.
ZH: 多头会再次买入吗？ 他们之前在这个价格激进地、非常强势地买入
10:02 - 10:07
EN: If the market tests down to near that price, will they buy aggressively again?
ZH: 如果市场回测到这个价格，他们是否会再次积极地买入？
10:07 - 10:10
EN: If so, we’ll get a Measured Move up.
ZH: 如果是，那么会上涨到MM目标位
10:10 - 10:13
EN: If not, the trend will end and either enter a Trading Range
ZH: 如果不是，那么趋势结束，进入震荡区间
10:13 - 10:16
EN: or possibly even reverse into an opposite trend.
ZH: 或者甚至反转成下降趋势
10:23 - 10:27
EN: The bears would like a break below the low and a Measured Move down,
ZH: 空头希望能够跌破起涨点，并跌到反向的MM目标位
10:27 - 10:29
EN: and the bulls are looking for some kind of a Measured Move up
ZH: 多头期望上涨到某个MM目标位
10:29 - 10:32
EN: - at a minimum, maybe based upon the height of the breakout.
ZH: ——至少是把这段突破的高度往上翻一倍
10:35 - 10:39
EN: The bulls, no matter where they bought, even if they bought down here,
ZH: 无论在哪里买入，即使是在这里就入场的多头
10:39 - 10:41
EN: at this moment their risk is to below this low.
ZH: 此时他们的保护性止损在这个低点下方 （注：移动止损）
10:41 - 10:44
EN: This is a major Higher Low.
ZH: 这是一个重要的低点
10:44 - 10:46
EN: If the market falls below that major Higher Low,
ZH: 如果它被跌破
10:46 - 10:49
EN: then the premise of a bull trend is no longer valid.
ZH: 那么上涨趋势的前提就不再成立
10:49 - 10:54
EN: The market then is either in a Trading Range or possibly even in a bear trend.
ZH: 市场要么处于震荡区间，要么甚至处于下降趋势
10:55 - 11:00
EN: The bears who sold, maybe on this close or that close
ZH: 在它的收盘，或者它的收盘， 或者在这根阴线下方卖出做空的空头
10:58 - 11:05
EN: or below this bear bar, at a minimum are looking for the market
ZH: 在它的收盘，或者它的收盘， 或者在这根阴线下方卖出做空的空头 预期市场至少会跌破这个起涨点1个tick
11:02 - 11:05
EN: to get 1 tick below the low of this bull bar.
ZH: 预期市场至少会跌破这个起涨点1个tick
11:06 - 11:10
EN: Therefore, the risk for the bulls and the reward for the bears is the same.
ZH: 所以多头的风险等于空头的利润
11:13 - 11:17
EN: The bulls are looking for a minimum move equal to the size of the breakout.
ZH: 多头希望接下来的涨幅至少等于这段突破的高度
11:17 - 11:19
EN: So here’s the reward for the bulls.
ZH: 所以棕色框框是多头的利润
11:19 - 11:26
EN: The bears who sell here know that a strong breakout often has
ZH: 在这里卖出的空头知道， 强突破通常至少会有小的第2段上涨
11:23 - 11:26
EN: a small second leg up, or a brief second leg up;
ZH: 在这里卖出的空头知道， 强突破通常至少会有小的第2段上涨
11:27 - 11:33
EN: however, they do not expect it to go more
ZH: 但他们不希望这个第2段超过MM目标位
11:30 - 11:33
EN: than a Measured Move up based upon the height of the breakout.
ZH: 但他们不希望这个第2段超过MM目标位
11:33 - 11:37
EN: In other words, if there’s a second leg up, they expect it to be weaker.
ZH: 也就是说，空头认为就算有第2段上涨，也不会很强
11:37 - 11:41
EN: As trends progress they tend to weaken, and therefore for the bears,
ZH: 随时间推移，趋势会变弱，所以对于空头而言
11:41 - 11:46
EN: if it goes above this point, their premise of a climactic reversal is wrong.
ZH: 如果价格超过这里，那么高潮反转的前提就错误了
11:47 - 11:50
EN: The bears will put their stop above that Measured Move,
ZH: 所以空头会把止损放在MM目标位的上方
11:50 - 11:53
EN: and the bulls are looking to take partial profits at that Measured Move.
ZH: 而多头希望能够在MM目标位止盈至少一部分
11:56 - 12:07
EN: Probability
ZH: 概率——上涨趋势后期，特别强势的突破
Slide 005
Time: 12:00
Bilingual Transcript
12:04 - 12:07
EN: - an exceptionally strong bull breakout late in a bull trend,
ZH: 概率——上涨趋势后期，特别强势的突破
12:07 - 12:10
EN: especially when it’s not above the top of the Trading Range,
ZH: 尤其是还没有突破震荡区间的顶部
12:10 - 12:13
EN: is more likely an exhaustive end of the trend
ZH: 更有可能是趋势衰竭前最后的上涨
12:13 - 12:16
EN: than the start of a new, stronger leg up.
ZH: 而不是新的、更强势的上涨波段
12:16 - 12:21
EN: Therefore, if you say “probably” as a trader,
ZH: 作为交易者，“大概率”的意思是， 你认为至少有60%的把握
12:19 - 12:21
EN: that means you’re at least 60% certain,
ZH: 作为交易者，“大概率”的意思是， 你认为至少有60%的把握
12:21 - 12:25
EN: and therefore you believe there’s a 60% chance
ZH: 你认为有60%的概率
12:25 - 12:28
EN: that the market is going to come down here before it’s going to go up there.
ZH: 市场会跌到这个低点，而不是上涨到MM
12:30 - 12:36
EN: The risk and reward are equal, but because the probability is
ZH: 风险和利润相等，但因为概率至少有60%， 所以是合理的做空机会
12:33 - 12:36
EN: at least 60%, it’s reasonable to take the short.
ZH: 风险和利润相等，但因为概率至少有60%， 所以是合理的做空机会
12:36 - 12:38
EN: That makes the Trader’s Equation positive.
ZH: 数学期望为正
12:42 - 12:49
EN: Again, the profit target is a test at
ZH: 再讲一遍，目标是至少跌到抢购高潮的起涨点
12:44 - 12:49
EN: or below the bottom of the bull breakout (the Buy Climax).
ZH: 再讲一遍，目标是至少跌到抢购高潮的起涨点
12:55 - 13:03
EN: Again, since the probability favors the bears, all they need is a reward equal
ZH: 由于空头具有概率上的优势， 所以他们只需要等于风险的利润，就能获得正期望
13:00 - 13:03
EN: to their risk to have a positive Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 由于空头具有概率上的优势， 所以他们只需要等于风险的利润，就能获得正期望
13:03 - 13:06
EN: In fact, this is their Initial Risk.
ZH: 他们的初始风险是这么多
13:06 - 13:10
EN: For the Trader’s Equation, all you need is the Actual Risk,
ZH: 事实上，数学期望取决于实际风险
13:10 - 13:14
EN: and therefore if a bear sold let’s say at this close,
ZH: 假设空头在它的收盘卖出做空
13:14 - 13:19
EN: their Actual Risk was just 1 tick above the high
ZH: 实际风险非常小，就是到这根阴线的高点上方1个tick
13:17 - 13:19
EN: of this bear bar, which is very small.
ZH: 实际风险非常小，就是到这根阴线的高点上方1个tick
13:19 - 13:27
EN: And if they exit down here, that is several times greater
ZH: 如果他们在这里离场，利润是实际风险的好几倍， 毫无疑问数学期望是非常好的
13:22 - 13:27
EN: than their Actual Risk, and that definitely makes
ZH: 如果他们在这里离场，利润是实际风险的好几倍， 毫无疑问数学期望是非常好的
13:25 - 13:27
EN: for a very positive Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 如果他们在这里离场，利润是实际风险的好几倍， 毫无疑问数学期望是非常好的
13:29 - 13:31
EN: Stop just above a Measured Move up.
ZH: 初始止损放在MM目标位上方
Slide 006
Time: 13:35
Bilingual Transcript
13:38 - 13:41
EN: If you have pretty good context and a pretty good sell signal bar,
ZH: 如果背景很好，而且有强势的做空信号K线
13:41 - 13:43
EN: you do not have to risk that far.
ZH: 就不需要冒这么大的风险
13:43 - 13:46
EN: You can simply put your stop above the top of the bear bar, the sell signal bar.
ZH: 你可以直接把止损放在做空信号K的上方
13:49 - 13:51
EN: The bulls might get one more leg up,
ZH: 多头也许还能有一段上涨
13:51 - 13:54
EN: and therefore this is a higher probability stop.
ZH: 所以宽止损有更高的胜率
13:54 - 13:56
EN: And that’s always the case.
ZH: 事情总是如此
13:56 - 13:59
EN: Whenever you use a wider stop, you’re increasing your risk;
ZH: 当你使用宽止损的时候，风险就增加了
13:59 - 14:02
EN: you’re also increasing the probability of making money.
ZH: 但同时你也增加了赚钱的概率
14:02 - 14:06
EN: Both are reasonable – putting a stop here or putting a stop here.
ZH: 把止损放在这里，或者里——两者都是合理的
14:06 - 14:08
EN: If you put your stop above the bear bar and you get stopped out,
ZH: 如果你把止损放在阴线上方，但被打掉了
14:08 - 14:11
EN: you would sell again on a reversal down.
ZH: 你需要在反转下跌时再次卖出 （注：虽然止损，但高潮反转的前提仍然成立，所以需要再次入场）
14:11 - 14:13
EN: Once you get a pretty good reversal down
ZH: 一旦出现强势的反转下跌
14:13 - 14:18
EN: - for example, 3 consecutive bear bars – if your stop was here originally,
ZH: ——比如连续3根阴线——如果你的初始止损在这里
14:18 - 14:21
EN: you would move it down to above the top of the new bear swing.
ZH: 现在可以把它移动到起跌点的上方
Slide 007
Time: 14:30
Bilingual Transcript
14:33 - 14:40
EN: Usually when you get these breakouts, it’s 1 or 2 bars,
ZH: 交易者知道，通常这种抢购高潮， 最多一两根K线，而不是3或4根K线
14:37 - 14:40
EN: not 3 or 4 bars, and traders know that.
ZH: 交易者知道，通常这种抢购高潮， 最多一两根K线，而不是3或4根K线
14:40 - 14:42
EN: And especially with this tail on top of this bar,
ZH: 尤其是这根大阳线有上影线
14:42 - 14:45
EN: a lot of traders will simply sell the close of this bar.
ZH: 很多交易者会直接在它的收盘卖出
14:45 - 14:49
EN: The bulls sell to get out of longs, and the bears will sell to get short.
ZH: 多头卖出止盈，空头卖出做空
14:55 - 14:58
EN: What’s more likely: a bull trend becoming a bear trend,
ZH: 哪种情况更有可能？ 上涨趋势变成下降趋势？
14:58 - 15:01
EN: or a bull trend becoming a Trading Range?
ZH: 还是上涨趋势变成震荡区间？
15:01 - 15:03
EN: Well, probably a bull trend becoming a Trading Range,
ZH: 更有可能是变成震荡区间
15:03 - 15:08
EN: and therefore a lot of the bears will scalp out at least part of their profit,
ZH: 所以空头至少会快速止盈一部分仓位
15:08 - 15:12
EN: until they’re comfortable that the market has become Always In Short.
ZH: 除非他们确信市场已经进入单边下跌
15:13 - 15:17
EN: Most climactic reversals result in Trading Ranges.
ZH: 大多数高潮反转之后是变成震荡区间
15:17 - 15:19
EN: And then once the market’s in a Trading Range,
ZH: 市场先进入震荡区间
15:19 - 15:23
EN: then it often forms a reversal, a Major Trend Reversal pattern
ZH: 然后通常会形成某种大反转的结构
15:23 - 15:26
EN: like a Lower High Major Trend Reversal that can result in an opposite trend.
ZH: 比如高点降低的大反转，可能会导致相反的趋势
15:28 - 15:33
EN: And because a Trading Range is more likely after a climactic reversal
ZH: 由于高潮反转之后更有可能是震荡区间， 而不是直接变成相反的趋势
15:32 - 15:40
EN: than an opposite trend, traders should think about scalping
ZH: 由于高潮反转之后更有可能是震荡区间， 而不是直接变成相反的趋势 所以交易者应该考虑快速止盈至少一部分仓位（即剥头皮）， 除非反转非常的强势
15:36 - 15:40
EN: at least part of their trade – unless the reversal seems relentless.
ZH: 所以交易者应该考虑快速止盈至少一部分仓位（即剥头皮）， 除非反转非常的强势
15:40 - 15:44
EN: For example, here we have 3 bull bars, 4 bull bars, 5 bull bars.
ZH: 例如，这里有3根阳线，4根阳线，5根阳线
15:44 - 15:49
EN: You have to be thinking that the bulls are taking control
ZH: 你必须考虑到，多头正在掌控市场，现在只能做多
15:47 - 15:49
EN: and the market is Always In Long.
ZH: 你必须考虑到，多头正在掌控市场，现在只能做多
15:49 - 15:51
EN: Once you believe it’s Always In Long, then it’s okay
ZH: 一旦你相信市场已经进入上涨趋势，
15:51 - 15:55
EN: to swing your entire position, not just, for example, half of your position.
ZH: 那么做波段交易是可以的，不需要快速止盈一部分
15:56 - 15:57
EN: And the same here.
ZH: 这里也是一样
15:57 - 16:00
EN: If you’re thinking about scalping out around this low
ZH: 如果你原本考虑在这个低点附近快速止盈
16:00 - 16:02
EN: and you see 3 consecutive bear bars,
ZH: 但现在看到连续3根阴线
16:02 - 16:05
EN: the market’s Always In Short and we’re probably going lower.
ZH: 很可能已经是下降趋势，还会继续下跌
16:05 - 16:09
EN: And therefore, it’s not as important to scalp out part of your position.
ZH: 因此没有必要快速止盈部分仓位
16:10 - 16:14
EN: If the market stabilizes and tries to reverse up, then you could scalp out.
ZH: 如果价格止跌，开始反转上涨，那么你再离场也不迟
16:18 - 16:24
EN: Again, it’s always reasonable to take partial profits at the bottom
ZH: 再讲一遍，在最近一个重要的低点（抢购高潮的起涨点） 附近止盈部分仓位，总归是合理的做法
16:21 - 16:24
EN: of the most recent major Higher Low (the bottom of the Buy Climax).
ZH: 再讲一遍，在最近一个重要的低点（抢购高潮的起涨点） 附近止盈部分仓位，总归是合理的做法
16:30 - 16:33
EN: If the market does break below the bottom of the Buy Climax,
ZH: 如果市场跌破抢购高潮的起涨点
16:33 - 16:36
EN: you have to be thinking about a Measured Move down.
ZH: 那么就必须要考虑反向的MM目标位
16:37 - 16:42
EN: The way I look at this is when the market gets down here,
ZH: 当市场下跌到这里时，多头希望能够形成双底
16:40 - 16:42
EN: the bulls are hoping to form a Double Bottom.
ZH: 当市场下跌到这里时，多头希望能够形成双底
16:42 - 16:45
EN: A lot of times it just keeps going down, as it does here,
ZH: 很多时候市场继续下跌，就像这里一样
16:45 - 16:48
EN: but theoretically the bulls are hoping to form a Double Bottom
ZH: 但理论上多头希望能够形成双底
16:48 - 16:51
EN: and then break above the neckline and rally for a Measured Move up.
ZH: 然后突破颈线，并上涨到MM目标位
16:51 - 16:56
EN: If the market breaks below this low, then it’s breaking below
ZH: 市场跌破这个低点， 也就是跌破了理论上原本可能存在的双底
16:54 - 16:56
EN: at least a theoretical Double Bottom,
ZH: 市场跌破这个低点， 也就是跌破了理论上原本可能存在的双底
16:56 - 16:59
EN: and therefore you have to be thinking about a Measured Move down.
ZH: 所以要考虑到反向的MM目标位
16:59 - 17:04
EN: And this is a good area to take profits, especially after a big Sell Climax.
ZH: 这是非常好的止盈目标位，尤其是在大的抛售高潮之后
17:04 - 17:06
EN: Also, you’re low in the Trading Range.
ZH: 同时，现在已经来到了震荡区间的底部附近
17:06 - 17:10
EN: The market gapped up here, it rallied here, it rallied here.
ZH: 之前在这里跳空高开，在这里上涨，这里上涨
17:10 - 17:12
EN: We’re in that general price area.
ZH: 现在回到了这个区域
17:12 - 17:14
EN: And remember, after the Buy Climax
ZH: 而且之前讲过，在抢购高潮之后，
17:14 - 17:17
EN: you were looking for two legs down – one, pullback, two.
ZH: 交易者预期有两段下跌——1，反弹，2
17:17 - 17:22
EN: You’re still in the Trading Range, and any time you see a very strong breakout,
ZH: 现在仍然在区间内部， 每当你看到震荡区间内出现了非常强的第2段
17:21 - 17:28
EN: a second leg in a Trading Range, you have to be thinking
ZH: 现在仍然在区间内部， 每当你看到震荡区间内出现了非常强的第2段 就必须要考虑到，它更有可能是第2段陷阱， 而不是进入更强的下降趋势
17:24 - 17:28
EN: it’s more likely a 2nd Leg Trap than the start of a strong bear trend.
ZH: 就必须要考虑到，它更有可能是第2段陷阱， 而不是进入更强的下降趋势
Slide 008
Time: 17:30
Bilingual Transcript
17:37 - 17:41
EN: Sometimes you hear people talk about a V-bottom or a V-top.
ZH: 有时候你会听到别人谈论“V型反转”，“V型底”
17:41 - 17:45
EN: Sometimes they’ll call it an inverted or upside down V-top.
ZH: 有的人称之为“倒V型”，或者“A型顶”
17:45 - 17:47
EN: But those are rare.
ZH: V型反转非常少见
17:47 - 17:53
EN: They sometimes happen on some very unexpected news event, but that’s very rare.
ZH: 一些非常意外的黑天鹅会造成V型反转，但非常少见
17:53 - 17:58
EN: Almost always, whenever you get a pattern
ZH: 平时你看到像是V型顶、V型底的东西， 其实都是别的结构
17:55 - 17:58
EN: that you think is a V-top or a V-bottom, it’s something else,
ZH: 平时你看到像是V型顶、V型底的东西， 其实都是别的结构
17:58 - 18:03
EN: and there are clues that the market’s going to reverse
ZH: 而且在反转之前往往都是有明显的信号的
18:01 - 18:03
EN: before the reversal takes place.
ZH: 而且在反转之前往往都是有明显的信号的
18:03 - 18:06
EN: With a true V-top or a V-bottom, there are no clues.
ZH: 真正的V型顶或V型底，是没有任何信号的
18:06 - 18:08
EN: The market just suddenly reverses.
ZH: 市场直接突然反转
18:13 - 18:15
EN: And look what we have up here.
ZH: 我们看这里有没有线索
18:15 - 18:19
EN: We have a Parabolic Wedge Top and we have a test of the high of the day.
ZH: 抛物线楔性，而且测试了当天的最高点
18:19 - 18:22
EN: This very strong breakout late in a Trading Range day
ZH: 震荡区间日后期出现了非常大的大阳线
18:22 - 18:25
EN: is more likely a buy vacuum test of resistance
ZH: 更有可能是对阻力位的真空测试
18:25 - 18:29
EN: than it is an acceleration up into an even stronger bull trend.
ZH: 而不是加速进入更强的上涨趋势
18:34 - 18:43
EN: Every Buy Climax is a test of resistance, even if it’s not obvious,
ZH: 每个抢购高潮都是对阻力位的测试， 每个抛售高潮都是对支撑位的测试， 尽管有时候那些支撑和阻力并不明显
18:38 - 18:43
EN: and every Sell Climax is a test of support, even if it’s not obvious.
ZH: 每个抛售高潮都是对支撑位的测试， 尽管有时候那些支撑和阻力并不明显
18:43 - 18:47
EN: This is a test of this low and of the bottom of a Trading Range day,
ZH: 下跌测试了这个低点，测试了震荡区间日的底部区域
18:47 - 18:49
EN: and this is a test of the top of the Trading Range day.
ZH: 而这里测试了震荡区间日的顶部区域
18:49 - 18:54
EN: And it’s also an attempt to break above the top of a very Tight Bull Channel,
ZH: 这里也是在尝试加速突破上涨窄通道的上沿
18:54 - 18:56
EN: and the top of the channel is resistance.
ZH: 而通道的上沿也是阻力
Slide 009
Time: 19:00
Bilingual Transcript
19:05 - 19:06
EN: Well, here’s an interesting bar.
ZH: 这根K线有点意思
19:06 - 19:11
EN: You have a very strong bear bar occurring late in the bear trend,
ZH: 下降趋势后期，出现了非常强的大阴线，
19:11 - 19:17
EN: closing on its low, and it’s one of the biggest bear bars,
ZH: 收盘在最低，而且几乎是整个下降趋势中最大的K线
19:15 - 19:17
EN: possibly the biggest bear bar late in a bear trend.
ZH: 收盘在最低，而且几乎是整个下降趋势中最大的K线
19:17 - 19:19
EN: It’s a surprise.
ZH: 这是惊喜K线
19:20 - 19:24
EN: Now, whenever the market has a surprise, traders want to know what will happen
ZH: 每当出现惊喜K线，然后市场回到惊喜K线的起点附近时，
19:24 - 19:28
EN: if the market tests back up near the beginning of the surprise.
ZH: 交易者想要知道后续会发生什么
19:29 - 19:32
EN: Sometimes you’ll get a little test up and then a resumption down,
ZH: 有时候只是略微反弹一下，就恢复下跌
19:32 - 19:35
EN: and you’re left with a gap, and you get a Measured Move down.
ZH: 留下一个缺口，然后跌到MM目标位
19:36 - 19:40
EN: However, if the market goes more than a couple ticks above the high of that bar,
ZH: 然而，如果反弹超过它的起跌点几个ticks
19:40 - 19:45
EN: then traders assume that it is an exhaustive end of the bear trend
ZH: 那么交易者就会认为，下降趋势已经衰竭、结束，
19:45 - 19:49
EN: and not a Measuring Gap leading to an even stronger leg down.
ZH: 它不是引发更强下降趋势的测量型缺口
19:50 - 19:52
EN: Therefore, the high of this bar is major.
ZH: 因此，这根K线的高点很重要
19:52 - 19:55
EN: The bears sold very aggressively at that price.
ZH: 空头之前在这个价格非常激进地卖出
19:55 - 20:00
EN: If the market starts to approach that price, will they again sell aggressively?
ZH: 如果市场回到这里，他们会再次大量卖出吗？
20:00 - 20:03
EN: Will this be the start of a very strong leg down,
ZH: 这到底是更强的下降趋势的开始，
20:03 - 20:05
EN: or is it an exhaustive end of the trend?
ZH: 还是趋势衰竭前最后的下跌？
20:05 - 20:11
EN: Usually the biggest bear bar late in a bear trend is the end of the trend.
ZH: 通常，在下降趋势后期，最大的阴线标志着趋势的结束
20:11 - 20:14
EN: 60% chance this is at or near the end of the trend.
ZH: 60%的概率，趋势即将结束
20:14 - 20:17
EN: Sometimes you get one more small leg down.
ZH: 有时你会看到小的第2段下跌
20:17 - 20:19
EN: Here, we have an attempt at a leg down.
ZH: 比如这根小阴线就是一种尝试
20:19 - 20:23
EN: Then you get a reversal up to test that major Lower High.
ZH: 然后价格反转上涨，测试了那个重要的高点
20:28 - 20:33
EN: Because it is a major Lower High, the bears will place stops just
ZH: 因为它是重要的高点，所以有的空头把止损放在它的上方
20:33 - 20:38
EN: above the top of that bar, because if it goes above that bar,
ZH: 理由是，如果这个起跌点被突破，那么很可能不再是下降趋势
20:36 - 20:38
EN: chances are it’s no longer a bear trend.
ZH: 理由是，如果这个起跌点被突破，那么很可能不再是下降趋势
20:38 - 20:42
EN: It’s either a Trading Range or possibly even a bull trend.
ZH: 要么变成震荡区间，甚至可能变成上涨趋势
20:49 - 20:51
EN: The bears want a Measured Move down.
ZH: 空头希望下跌到MM目标位
20:51 - 20:56
EN: They know the probability is that this is an exhaustive move
ZH: 尽管他们知道，这种抛售高潮之后大概率会衰竭
20:56 - 21:00
EN: and that we’re going to test the top of the bar and go sideways or possibly up.
ZH: 然后会反弹到抛售高潮的起跌点，再横盘或上涨
21:00 - 21:01
EN: However, the math is good.
ZH: 然而，做空在数学上也有合理性
21:01 - 21:03
EN: If they sell, they’re not risking very much,
ZH: 如果卖出做空，风险不是很大
21:03 - 21:06
EN: and they’re hoping for a huge Measured Move down.
ZH: 但可能会有巨大的MM目标位
21:06 - 21:10
EN: At a minimum, they want a Measured Move down
ZH: 至少，最近的MM目标位是把这根阴线的高度往下翻一倍
21:08 - 21:10
EN: based upon the height of the breakout bar.
ZH: 至少，最近的MM目标位是把这根阴线的高度往下翻一倍
21:14 - 21:19
EN: I said that the bears expect at least a Measured Move down, which is down here.
ZH: 空头至少期望跌到这个MM目标位，在这里
21:19 - 21:22
EN: That is their reward, their minimum reward.
ZH: 这是他们的最低利润
21:22 - 21:26
EN: So they’re risking up here, and their reward is down here.
ZH: 他们的止损在这里，目标在这里
21:26 - 21:31
EN: The bulls who let’s say buy this close or buy above this bar believe that,
ZH: 多头，比如在大阴线的收盘买入， 或者在这根阳线上方买入，
21:31 - 21:35
EN: yes, we might get a small second leg down, but it probably will not be
ZH: 知道很可能会有小的第2段下跌，
21:35 - 21:38
EN: as strong as this if this is an exhaustive move,
ZH: 但如果趋势真的衰竭，第2段就不应该像它那么强
21:38 - 21:42
EN: and therefore they’ll put a stop just below a Measured Move down.
ZH: 所以他们把止损放在MM目标位的下方
21:43 - 21:48
EN: The risk for the bulls is down here, and the reward for the bears is down here.
ZH: 多头的止损在这里，空头的目标也在这里
21:51 - 21:54
EN: The reward for the bulls, at a minimum, is up here,
ZH: 多头的最低目标在这里
21:54 - 21:56
EN: and the risk for the bears is up here.
ZH: 空头的止损也在这里
21:56 - 21:59
EN: Their stop is just above the high of this breakout.
ZH: 他们的止损就在这个起跌点的上方
21:59 - 22:01
EN: This is a major Lower High.
ZH: 这是一个重要的高点
22:05 - 22:08
EN: We have a Double Top bear flag, a neckline.
ZH: 双顶熊旗，颈线
22:08 - 22:10
EN: The market fell for a Measured Move.
ZH: 市场下跌到了MM目标位
22:10 - 22:14
EN: This could be a sell vacuum test of that target area.
ZH: 这根大阴线是对目标位的真空测试
22:16 - 22:18
EN: We’re also at the bottom of a channel,
ZH: 同时，市场也处于通道的下沿
22:18 - 22:22
EN: and therefore traders could view this as a type of a Wedge.
ZH: 因此交易者可以把它看作楔形底
22:22 - 22:26
EN: Even though it does not have a Wedge shape, it’s the third push down
ZH: 尽管它完全没有楔形的形状，但有3次向下的推动
22:26 - 22:28
EN: and it looks like it might be stalling,
ZH: 价格在这里止跌、停滞
22:28 - 22:31
EN: and therefore we might be getting another reversal up.
ZH: 这是另一个可能会反转上涨的理由
Slide 010
Time: 22:35
Bilingual Transcript
22:39 - 22:42
EN: At the close of this bar, you have bulls and bears trading.
ZH: 在这根K线收盘时，多空双杠都有理由交易
22:42 - 22:48
EN: The bulls have a 60% chance of going up here before falling that same distance.
ZH: 多头有60%的概率不会被止损，可以赚到这么多
22:48 - 22:54
EN: The bears only have a 40% chance of falling that distance
ZH: 空头只有40%的概率达到目标位，60%的时候会被止损
22:51 - 22:54
EN: before hitting a stop above the high of this bar.
ZH: 空头只有40%的概率达到目标位，60%的时候会被止损
22:56 - 23:01
EN: Exhaustion Gap more likely than a Measuring Gap, so rather than some kind
ZH: 这更有可能是竭尽型缺口，而不是测量型缺口
23:01 - 23:04
EN: of a Measured Move down, more likely it’s an exhaustive end of the trend
ZH: 所以相对于继续跌到MM目标位而言， 趋势更有可能衰竭、结束
23:04 - 23:07
EN: and we’ll get up to the top of that final Sell Climax.
ZH: 然后反弹到抛售高潮的起跌点上方
23:11 - 23:15
EN: A lot of bulls will buy that close, betting that it’s an exhaustive move,
ZH: 很多多头会在它的收盘买入，押注下降趋势衰竭
23:15 - 23:18
EN: and they’ll put a stop beyond the Measured Move down.
ZH: 他们会把止损放在MM目标位下方
23:18 - 23:20
EN: Higher probability to buy a reversal up,
ZH: 等反转的信号再买入，胜率更高
23:20 - 23:24
EN: especially above this bull bar and getting filled right here.
ZH: 尤其是在这根阳线上方挂突破买单，在这里成交
23:30 - 23:32
EN: Because the probability is high for the bulls,
ZH: 因为多头在胜率上有优势
23:32 - 23:35
EN: all they need is a reward equal to twice their risk.
ZH: 所以他们只需要一倍盈亏比就足够了
23:35 - 23:39
EN: Their Initial Risk is here, and their reward is here.
ZH: 他们的初始止损在这里，目标在这里
23:40 - 23:43
EN: This is a reward equal to one times their Initial Risk.
ZH: 利润等于初始风险
23:43 - 23:46
EN: The Trader’s Equation is based upon Actual Risk,
ZH: 数学期望是基于实际风险的
23:46 - 23:48
EN: and if a trader bought above the high of this bull bar
ZH: 如果你在这根阳线的高点上方买入
23:48 - 23:52
EN: and got filled here, their Actual Risk was only right here.
ZH: 订单在这里成交，实际风险只有这么一点点
23:52 - 23:55
EN: The move up here is probably at least twice their Actual Risk,
ZH: 涨到这里的话，显然超过两倍实际风险
23:55 - 23:58
EN: and that clearly is a positive Trader’s Equation.
ZH: 所以数学期望肯定是正的
24:02 - 24:09
EN: Again, the bulls who buy here, stop a little bit more
ZH: 再讲一遍，在这里买入的多头，止损就放在MM下方， 止盈目标位是抛售高潮的起跌点
24:05 - 24:09
EN: than a Measured Move down and reward at the top of the Sell Climax.
ZH: 再讲一遍，在这里买入的多头，止损就放在MM下方， 止盈目标位是抛售高潮的起跌点
24:14 - 24:16
EN: They can take partial profits here.
ZH: 他们可以在这里止盈一部分
24:16 - 24:19
EN: If they thought the market was clearly Always In Long,
ZH: 如果他们认为市场明显已经进入上涨趋势，
24:19 - 24:20
EN: they could hold for a swing;
ZH: 就可以持有做波段交易
24:20 - 24:23
EN: however, after a very Tight Bear Channel like this,
ZH: 然而，在这么窄的下降通道之后，
24:23 - 24:25
EN: the first reversal up is minor,
ZH: 第一次上涨都是小反转
24:25 - 24:28
EN: which means the best the bulls will get is a Trading Range.
ZH: 也就是说多头最多得到一个震荡区间
24:28 - 24:31
EN: And once in a Trading Range, then they can get a major reversal.
ZH: 形成震荡区间之后，才有大反转的结构
Slide 011
Time: 24:35
Bilingual Transcript
24:37 - 24:39
EN: I want to talk a little bit about Micro Channels.
ZH: 接下来我想讲一讲微通道
Slide 012
Time: 24:41
Bilingual Transcript
24:42 - 24:49
EN: A Micro Channel means that the high of the bar is
ZH: 下降微通道的意思是：每根K线的高点 都低于或最多等于前一根K线的高点
24:45 - 24:49
EN: below the high of the prior bar – below or at the high of the prior bar.
ZH: 下降微通道的意思是：每根K线的高点 都低于或最多等于前一根K线的高点
24:49 - 24:51
EN: Look at the chart.
ZH: 看K线图
24:51 - 24:53
EN: There’s time here, and there’s price here.
ZH: 横轴是时间，纵轴是价格
24:53 - 24:56
EN: Every move is a combination of price and time.
ZH: 每根K线都是价格和时间的组合
24:57 - 25:02
EN: Some climaxes are based upon simply price: the market falls very far.
ZH: 有些高潮完全是基于价格：大阴线下跌很多
25:02 - 25:11
EN: But other climaxes can be based upon time: the market does something
ZH: 但有的高潮是基于时间的：连续上涨或下跌很多根K线， 这种趋势不可持续
25:06 - 25:11
EN: for a very unusual number of bars, and that becomes unsustainable.
ZH: 但有的高潮是基于时间的：连续上涨或下跌很多根K线， 这种趋势不可持续
25:11 - 25:17
EN: Do you think this could go down like this for 100 bars, 500 bars, 1,000 bars?
ZH: 你觉得市场有可能这样下跌100、500、1000根K线吗？
25:17 - 25:21
EN: No, of course you do not think that, and therefore it’s unsustainable,
ZH: 这当然是不可能的，所以它不可持续
25:21 - 25:23
EN: and anything that’s unsustainable is climactic.
ZH: 任何不可持续的行情都是高潮
25:23 - 25:26
EN: And that means that the bears will take profits
ZH: 也就是说，空头会止盈
25:26 - 25:28
EN: and the bulls will start to buy for scalps.
ZH: 而多头开始买入做剥头皮交易
25:34 - 25:42
EN: Whenever you have a bear trend that has persistent strength 20
ZH: 如果下降趋势在20、30根K线中一直非常的强势， 那么空头大概率已经疲惫
25:37 - 25:42
EN: or 30 bars into the trend, you’re probably exhausting the bears,
ZH: 如果下降趋势在20、30根K线中一直非常的强势， 那么空头大概率已经疲惫
25:42 - 25:44
EN: and they’re probably going to start taking profits.
ZH: 他们很快就会开始止盈
25:44 - 25:48
EN: For example, at this point the stop for the bears is way up here,
ZH: 比如这里，此时空头的止损在很高的地方
25:48 - 25:51
EN: and that is a lot of points for the bears to risk.
ZH: 没有人愿意利润回撤这么多
25:51 - 25:53
EN: And they’re going to try to reduce their risk,
ZH: 所以空头会想要减少风险
25:53 - 25:57
EN: and one way to do that is by beginning to take profits,
ZH: 其中一种方法是减仓止盈
25:57 - 25:59
EN: and as the bears take more and more profits,
ZH: 随着越来越多的空头止盈
25:59 - 26:02
EN: the bear trend weakens and it starts to evolve into a Trading Range.
ZH: 下降趋势就开始变弱，逐渐变成震荡区间
26:03 - 26:06
EN: When you get a breakout like this, you say, well,
ZH: 当你看到这样的突破时，你可能会想：
26:06 - 26:08
EN: there’s a doji bar here, pretty much a doji here,
ZH: “额，十字星，这个也差不多是十字星，
26:08 - 26:12
EN: the bear breakout bars are not all that big, bad follow-through here.
ZH: 空头突破好像不怎么强势，这个跟随也不好。”
26:12 - 26:15
EN: That’s all true; it does not look particularly strong on this timeframe.
ZH: 你说的没错，在这个时间周期上，突破看起来并不强势
26:16 - 26:18
EN: But on a higher timeframe chart, like a 15-minute chart,
ZH: 但在更高的时间周期，比如15分钟图
26:18 - 26:21
EN: this would be a series of very strong bear bars,
ZH: 这些是一系列非常强势的阴线
26:21 - 26:25
EN: and because it’s a very strong breakout on a higher timeframe chart,
ZH: 因为在更高的周期上，市场处于强势突破阶段
26:25 - 26:28
EN: on the 5-minute chart traders should only be selling.
ZH: 所以在5分钟图上，交易者只能卖出、不能买入
26:28 - 26:31
EN: Sell closes, sell anything, sell at the market.
ZH: 卖收盘，在任何价格卖出，市价卖出
26:36 - 26:40
EN: 18 bars without the high of a bar going above the high of the prior bar.
ZH: 连续18根K线，每根K线的高点都在降低
26:41 - 26:44
EN: At some point no one’s willing to sell,
ZH: 到了某个时刻，已经没有人再愿意卖出
26:44 - 26:48
EN: and the bears will begin to take profits and they’ll sell pullbacks,
ZH: 空头会开始止盈，然后等待逢高卖出的机会
26:48 - 26:51
EN: but they will not continue to sell in the bear Micro Channel.
ZH: 但他们不会继续在下降微通道中追空了
26:51 - 26:54
EN: The market will have to go higher to find traders willing to sell.
ZH: 市场不得不上涨，才能找到更多愿意卖出的交易者
26:59 - 27:03
EN: Whenever you have any kind of a climax, an unsustainable move,
ZH: 每当看到任何高潮，任何不可持续的行情
27:03 - 27:08
EN: you have a 70% chance of 10 bars, two legs occurring fairly soon.
ZH: 70%的概率，很快就会出现两段、10K的反弹（或回调）
27:09 - 27:12
EN: In this particular case we have about 10 bars, two legs sideways to up.
ZH: 在这个案例中，这里有大约10根K线，两段横盘
27:13 - 27:18
EN: We went up, pullback, and then sideways, so we had at least two legs –
ZH: 上涨，回调，然后横盘，所以至少有两段
27:18 - 27:21
EN: one, pullback, two – we actually had three or four,
ZH: 1，回调，2——实际上有3或4段
27:21 - 27:22
EN: and sideways for about 10 bars.
ZH: 横盘了大约10根K线
27:22 - 27:26
EN: And that’s the minimum objective after any kind of a Sell Climax:
ZH: 这就是任何抛售高潮之后的最低目标：
27:26 - 27:29
EN: 10 bars and two legs sideways to up.
ZH: 10根K线，两段上涨或横盘
27:30 - 27:35
EN: What are the chances of a big bear breakout and an even stronger trend down?
ZH: 大阴线跌破、下降趋势变得更强的概率有多大？
27:35 - 27:38
EN: Only 30%, probably even less.
ZH: 只有30%，甚至更低
27:39 - 27:47
EN: I think it’s important to remember that even though this selloff
ZH: 关键是要知道，尽管这里的下跌没有连续的大阴线， 在这个时间周期并不算特别强势
27:43 - 27:47
EN: lacks consecutive big bear trend bars and is not especially strong
ZH: 关键是要知道，尽管这里的下跌没有连续的大阴线， 在这个时间周期并不算特别强势
27:47 - 27:50
EN: on this timeframe, it is strong on a higher timeframe chart,
ZH: 但在更高的时间周期，市场处于突破阶段
27:50 - 27:52
EN: and bulls should not be buying.
ZH: 所以不应该买入做多
27:52 - 27:53
EN: They’re not going to make money buying.
ZH: 做多是赚不到钱的
27:53 - 28:01
EN: However, bears will be buying to take profits, and once you start to evolve
ZH: 然而，最终空头会买入止盈，市场进入震荡区间， 此时多头开始买入做多
27:58 - 28:01
EN: into a Trading Range, then bulls will start to look to buy.
ZH: 然而，最终空头会买入止盈，市场进入震荡区间， 此时多头开始买入做多
Slide 013
Time: 28:05
Bilingual Transcript
28:08 - 28:10
EN: We have the first pullback in a Micro Channel.
ZH: 这是微通道以来的第一次反弹 （注：第一次高点抬高）
28:10 - 28:16
EN: High probability that the market is going to go down
ZH: 很大的概率会有第2段下跌，至少再下跌一些， 所以此时做空是合理的——
28:13 - 28:16
EN: at least a little bit further, and therefore it’s a reasonable short,
ZH: 很大的概率会有第2段下跌，至少再下跌一些， 所以此时做空是合理的——
28:16 - 28:21
EN: either below the low of this bar or below the low
ZH: 在这根K线下方，或者在这根收在最低的阴线下方挂突破卖单
28:19 - 28:21
EN: of this bear bar closing on its low.
ZH: 在这根K线下方，或者在这根收在最低的阴线下方挂突破卖单
28:21 - 28:28
EN: However, because this is climactic and the market’s
ZH: 然而，因为这是抛售高潮， 市场很快就会止跌、开始横盘甚至上涨
28:24 - 28:28
EN: probably going to start to pause, go sideways to up a little bit,
ZH: 然而，因为这是抛售高潮， 市场很快就会止跌、开始横盘甚至上涨
28:28 - 28:30
EN: a lot of these bears will scalp.
ZH: 所以很多空头会快速止盈
28:36 - 28:40
EN: If a bear sold here and did not scalp out at the new low
ZH: 如果一个空头在这里卖出，但没有在新低止盈，
28:40 - 28:44
EN: or anywhere down here, they’ll probably buy on the reversal up.
ZH: 他需要在反转上涨时买入回补
28:44 - 28:48
EN: They don’t have to; it’s still probably only a minor reversal
ZH: 也可以继续持有，因为这仍然大概率只是小反转
28:48 - 28:51
EN: because the channel is still very strong.
ZH: 目前下降通道还是很强势
28:51 - 28:59
EN: You only expect a major reversal after the bulls have had
ZH: 只有在多头制造了强势的反弹之后，才能预期大反转， 而这段反弹是非常强势的
28:54 - 28:59
EN: a pretty strong minor reversal, and this is a pretty strong minor reversal.
ZH: 只有在多头制造了强势的反弹之后，才能预期大反转， 而这段反弹是非常强势的
28:59 - 29:02
EN: And therefore bulls will look for a major reversal
ZH: 所以多头开始期待大反转的机会——
29:02 - 29:05
EN: - here, a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 这里是低点抬高的大反转
29:05 - 29:07
EN: This is a Final Flag reversal,
ZH: 这里是末端熊旗
29:07 - 29:10
EN: and a Trading Range is more likely than a bull trend.
ZH: 更有可能是震荡区间，而不是上涨趋势
29:10 - 29:14
EN: It’s reasonable to take the buy looking for a test of the Sell Climax,
ZH: 做多是合理的，预期价格涨到抛售高潮的起涨点，
29:14 - 29:16
EN: which is the most recent major Lower High.
ZH: 也就是最近一个重要的高点
29:16 - 29:22
EN: But this entire trend is very tight, very small reversals,
ZH: 但整个下降趋势很窄，几乎没有反弹
29:22 - 29:27
EN: and therefore the market’s still making minor reversals
ZH: 所以仍然是小反转，不太可能直接变成上涨趋势
29:26 - 29:27
EN: and a bull trend is unlikely.
ZH: 所以仍然是小反转，不太可能直接变成上涨趋势
29:27 - 29:31
EN: A trader buying here is probably going to be scalping out around here,
ZH: 在这里买入的多头，会在这里快速止盈
29:31 - 29:35
EN: betting that a Trading Range is more likely than a bull trend.
ZH: 押注更有可能是震荡区间，而不是上涨趋势
29:35 - 29:42
EN: But once you get the Trading Range and once you get
ZH: 进入上涨趋势，并且出现这样强势的小反转之后， 多头会开始期待波段交易的机会
29:38 - 29:42
EN: a very strong minor reversal like this, bulls will begin to look for a swing up
ZH: 进入上涨趋势，并且出现这样强势的小反转之后， 多头会开始期待波段交易的机会
29:42 - 29:45
EN: – for example, a Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: ——例如，低点抬高的大反转
Slide 014
Time: 29:50
Bilingual Transcript
29:50 - 29:53
EN: Sell Climax, Sell Climax, Sell Climax.
ZH: 抛售高潮，抛售高潮，抛售高潮（指大阴线）
29:53 - 29:56
EN: Here, 3 more bars, another Sell Climax.
ZH: 这3根阴线，又是抛售高潮
29:56 - 29:58
EN: This is a series of Sell Climaxes.
ZH: 连续一系列抛售高潮
29:58 - 30:00
EN: At some point the bears get exhausted.
ZH: 空头会在某个时刻力竭
30:00 - 30:05
EN: They buy back their shorts, and then they wait for
ZH: 他们会买入回补，然后等待至少两段反弹之后， 才会再次入场做空
30:02 - 30:05
EN: at least a couple legs up before selling again.
ZH: 他们会买入回补，然后等待至少两段反弹之后， 才会再次入场做空
30:06 - 30:08
EN: If you want, you can call it a Wedge.
ZH: 你也可以把它看作楔形底
30:08 - 30:12
EN: We have a low, a reversal, a low, a reversal, a low, and another reversal.
ZH: 新低，反弹；新低，反弹；新低，再次反弹
30:12 - 30:21
EN: I know it doesn’t look like a Wedge, but any time you get three legs down
ZH: 尽管它看上去不像楔形，但只要看到有3段下跌，然后反转上涨， 你就必须考虑它可能是某一种楔形
30:17 - 30:21
EN: that reverse, you have to be thinking that it’s a type of a Wedge.
ZH: 尽管它看上去不像楔形，但只要看到有3段下跌，然后反转上涨， 你就必须考虑它可能是某一种楔形
30:24 - 30:28
EN: I think this is a reasonable buy, looking for a test of here, maybe up here.
ZH: 我认为在这里买入是合理的，目标位是测试这里，或者到这里
30:33 - 30:36
EN: A Micro Double Bottom, bulls could buy above this bull bar as well.
ZH: 小双底，多头也可以在这根阳线上方买入
30:37 - 30:40
EN: Good context for a test up to these Lower Highs.
ZH: 背景支持价格反弹到这些高点附近
30:46 - 30:49
EN: If they buy above here or above here,
ZH: 如果在它或者它的高点上方买入
30:49 - 30:52
EN: a reasonable stop is below the low of this buy signal bar.
ZH: 可以把止损放在这根做多信号K线的下方
30:52 - 30:57
EN: Some bulls will buy here and they’ll buy more below this bull bar,
ZH: 一些多头在这里买入之后，会在这根阳线下方挂单加仓
30:57 - 31:00
EN: betting that the market is starting to transition into a Trading Range.
ZH: 押注市场开始转变为震荡区间 （注：所以逢低加仓，而不是止损）
31:00 - 31:05
EN: For example, once they see that the bulls
ZH: 例如，当他们看到， 在这个低点挂单买入并逢低加仓的多头能够赚到钱
31:02 - 31:05
EN: who bought this low and scaled in lower made money,
ZH: 例如，当他们看到， 在这个低点挂单买入并逢低加仓的多头能够赚到钱
31:05 - 31:10
EN: they’re going to assume buying at this low or lower will make money.
ZH: 他们会假设在这个低点挂单并逢低加仓，也能赚到钱
31:11 - 31:15
EN: And if it falls below this low a few points, they’ll reverse up as well.
ZH: 如果市场略微跌破这个低点，也会再次反转上涨
31:15 - 31:18
EN: So some bulls, rather than exiting just below the low of this bar,
ZH: 所以一些多头，他们不会在这根K线的低点下方止损
31:18 - 31:22
EN: will buy more, betting that the market is in the process of transitioning
ZH: 而是会买入更多，押注市场正在变成震荡区间
31:22 - 31:27
EN: into a Trading Range, and in a Trading Range you want to buy low, not sell low.
ZH: 在震荡区间中，应该逢低买入，而不是在低位卖出
31:28 - 31:31
EN: If you did exit down here and then you get another reversal up,
ZH: 假设真的在这里被止损了，如果价格再次反转上涨，
31:31 - 31:33
EN: the bulls would buy again.
ZH: 多头就需要再次买入
31:36 - 31:39
EN: A reasonable place to take profits.
ZH: 在这里止盈是合理的
31:39 - 31:43
EN: You’re testing the tops of the Lower Highs in the bear trend,
ZH: 市场测试了下降趋势中的重要高点
31:43 - 31:48
EN: and you’ve had one, two, three, four, a Low 4 short.
ZH: 而且这是——1，2，3，4——低4做空入场点
31:48 - 31:52
EN: We tried to top out here, we got a breakout and then a Wedge – one, two, three.
ZH: 尝试在这里形成熊旗，但是向上突破， 然后楔形——1，2，3
31:52 - 31:54
EN: So it’s a type of consecutive top pattern.
ZH: 所以这是连续的顶部结构
31:55 - 31:57
EN: Again, it’s probably a Trading Range,
ZH: 同样，因为这很可能是震荡区间
31:57 - 31:59
EN: and the market’s probably not going to fall all that far.
ZH: 所以也不会有太多的下跌
32:00 - 32:04
EN: Another thing good for the bulls here is this channel is so tight,
ZH: 多头的另外一个优势是：上涨通道很窄
32:04 - 32:07
EN: the odds are a reversal down is minor and the bulls will get
ZH: 大概率只是一次回调，
32:07 - 32:12
EN: at least a small second leg up, and therefore they’ll look to buy this
ZH: 至少会有小的第2段上涨，所以多头会在这里买入，
32:12 - 32:14
EN: or above this bull bar for a Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 或者在这根阳线上方买入，押注大反转
32:17 - 32:18
EN: I said you can call this a Low 4.
ZH: 之前说可以把它看作低4
32:19 - 32:23
EN: I used to use that term a lot, and now I view it as consecutive tops.
ZH: 以前我经常会这样数K线，现在我更多称之为连续的顶部
32:23 - 32:26
EN: We tried to get a bear flag here, and instead of trading down,
ZH: 尝试在这里形成熊旗，但没有下跌
32:26 - 32:30
EN: we got a breakout and then we got three legs up – one, two, three.
ZH: 向上突破之后，有3次推动——1，2，3
32:31 - 32:34
EN: Even though it is a Low 4 – Low 1, Low 2, Low 3, Low 4
ZH: 尽管它确实是低4——低1，低2，低3，低4
32:34 - 32:36
EN: - I think of it more as consecutive tops.
ZH: 我更倾向于把它看作是连续的顶部
32:36 - 32:39
EN: We have a complex top – Low 1, Low 2
ZH: 这里是一个复杂的顶部结构——低1，低2
32:39 - 32:41
EN: - and then a breakout, and then another complex top
ZH: 然后向上突破，又形成一个复杂的顶部结构
32:41 - 32:45
EN: - Low 1, the Low 2 did not trigger, and then a Low 3 did.
ZH: ——低1，低2没有触发，然后低3触发了
32:48 - 32:50
EN: Higher Low Major Trend Reversal.
ZH: 低点抬高的大反转
32:50 - 32:54
EN: A Tight Bear Channel, a Micro Channel lasting about 8 bars or so.
ZH: 窄下降通道，持续了大约8根K线
32:54 - 32:58
EN: A lot of bulls will wait for a second entry buy, like above this bull bar.
ZH: 很多多头会等待第2做多入场点，比如在这根阳线的上方买入
Slide 015
Time: 33:00
Bilingual Transcript
33:05 - 33:07
EN: A very Small Pullback Bull Trend
ZH: 几乎没有任何回调的上涨趋势
33:07 - 33:11
EN: - pullback just for a couple bars, one bar, and one bar here.
ZH: ——回调只持续几根K线，一根K线，这里一根K线
33:11 - 33:13
EN: Very strong bull trend.
ZH: 非常强的上涨趋势
33:14 - 33:19
EN: But look at it: are there any exceptionally strong breakouts?
ZH: 但仔细观察，有特别强的大阳线吗？
33:19 - 33:24
EN: We have breakouts, but are they the biggest, strongest,
ZH: 有一些阳线突破，但他们是图上最大、最强、最惊人的K线吗？
33:22 - 33:24
EN: most dramatic bars on the chart?
ZH: 有一些阳线突破，但他们是图上最大、最强、最惊人的K线吗？
33:24 - 33:29
EN: They are not, and therefore the market is not getting exhausted.
ZH: 不是，所以上涨趋势没有力竭
33:29 - 33:32
EN: There’s no exhaustion, no exhaustive Buy Climax.
ZH: 没有极端的抢购高潮导致衰竭
33:32 - 33:36
EN: Even though we’re getting reversals, on a higher timeframe chart,
ZH: 尽管这里看到了一点点回调， 但在更高的时间周期，
33:36 - 33:39
EN: like a 15-minute chart, there probably are no pullbacks.
ZH: 比如15分钟图上，很可能完全看不到回调
33:39 - 33:42
EN: It’s probably just a series of bull bars closing on their highs.
ZH: 完全就是一系列阳线收在最高
33:42 - 33:46
EN: If not the 15-minute chart, then certainly the 30- or 60-minute chart.
ZH: 就算15分钟图不是，在30分钟或60分钟图上
33:46 - 33:50
EN: It’s a very strong series of big bull trend bars closing on their highs,
ZH: 一定是一系列强势的大阳线收在最高
33:50 - 33:54
EN: and you should only be buying.
ZH: 所以你只能做多，不能做空
33:52 - 33:54
EN: You should not be selling here.
ZH: 所以你只能做多，不能做空
33:54 - 33:55
EN: You cannot make money selling.
ZH: 做空赚不到钱
34:01 - 34:03
EN: If you sell for any reason, you’re going to lose.
ZH: 不管你在哪里做空，都会亏钱
34:03 - 34:06
EN: You have to assume that every reversal is going to fail.
ZH: 你必须假设每个反转都会失败
34:06 - 34:09
EN: Even up here, even though it’s a little bit climactic here,
ZH: 就算在这里，即使这里有一点抢购高潮
34:09 - 34:14
EN: parabolically climactic, the first reversal down is probably minor
ZH: 抛物线上涨，但第1次下跌大概率只是小反转，
34:14 - 34:16
EN: and will result in a Trading Range.
ZH: 最多变成震荡区间
34:16 - 34:20
EN: Even though I would not buy at that low – I would wait for a pullback closer
ZH: 虽然我不会在这个低点挂单买入—— 我会等价格回调到均线附近再买
34:20 - 34:24
EN: to the Moving Average – if you did, the odds of losing money are small
ZH: 但就算你在这里买入，亏钱的概率也很小
34:24 - 34:28
EN: because the first reversal down almost certainly will be minor.
ZH: 因为第1次下跌几乎肯定是小反转
34:28 - 34:31
EN: The bulls will buy it, and we’ll get a test back up to that high.
ZH: 多头会逢低买入，市场会回测前期的高点
34:36 - 34:40
EN: Many breakouts in the bull trend, but they’re not particularly big,
ZH: 上涨趋势中有很多突破，但它们没有特别剧烈
34:40 - 34:43
EN: and therefore the bulls are not especially exhausted,
ZH: 因此多头还没有力竭
34:43 - 34:46
EN: and therefore the bulls will keep buying.
ZH: 他们还能继续买入
Slide 016
Time: 34:50
Bilingual Transcript
34:54 - 34:56
EN: Here’s a weekly chart of the Emini,
ZH: 这是标普股指的周K图
34:56 - 35:00
EN: and we have 11 consecutive weeks with bull bodies.
ZH: 连续11个礼拜收阳线（注：上个案例中，有回调，只不过很小； 而这个案例是完全没有回调，两者是有区别的）
35:00 - 35:05
EN: Can we get 1,000 consecutive weeks with bull bodies? No, not realistically.
ZH: 能不能连续上涨1000个礼拜？ 不可能，绝对不可能
35:06 - 35:09
EN: At some point you’re going to get a bear body.
ZH: 涨到某个价格，一定会下跌的
35:09 - 35:17
EN: This has never happened before in the history of the Emini
ZH: 连续11个礼拜阳线，这在标普的历史上没有发生过， 因此这种行情不可持续
35:12 - 35:17
EN: - 11 consecutive weeks with a bull body – and therefore, it’s unsustainable.
ZH: 连续11个礼拜阳线，这在标普的历史上没有发生过， 因此这种行情不可持续
35:17 - 35:20
EN: Can you get 12, can you get 13, can you get 14?
ZH: 会不会有第12、13、14根阳线？
35:20 - 35:23
EN: Well, it’s never done that, so it’s unlikely that you’re going to do it.
ZH: 以前从来没发生过，现在发生的概率也很小
35:23 - 35:25
EN: And therefore, it’s unsustainable,
ZH: 因此它是不可持续的
35:25 - 35:28
EN: and any time something is unsustainable, it’s climactic.
ZH: 任何不可持续的行情都是高潮
35:29 - 35:33
EN: Even though the bars are not particularly big, it is a Buy Climax.
ZH: 尽管这些K线不是特别大，但它也是抢购高潮
35:33 - 35:35
EN: On a higher timeframe chart, like a monthly chart,
ZH: 在更高的时间周期，比如月K线上
35:35 - 35:38
EN: it might be 3 or 4 big bull trend bars,
ZH: 可能就是连续3或4根很大的大阳线
35:38 - 35:41
EN: and it might be a dramatic Buy Climax on a monthly chart.
ZH: 所以在月K线上是剧烈的抢购高潮
35:41 - 35:45
EN: But on this chart it’s not made of extremely big bull bars,
ZH: 但在这张图上，并没有极端的大阳线
35:45 - 35:48
EN: and therefore there’s not much exhaustion.
ZH: 所以看似没有力竭
35:54 - 36:02
EN: But it is unsustainable, and the odds are it’s going to pull back
ZH: 但这样的行情不可持续，大概率很快就会回调进入震荡区间， 所以空头会卖出做空
35:58 - 36:02
EN: into a Trading Range pretty soon, and therefore bears will sell.
ZH: 但这样的行情不可持续，大概率很快就会回调进入震荡区间， 所以空头会卖出做空
36:02 - 36:07
EN: Like for example, maybe they’ll sell above the high
ZH: 例如，他们会在这根K线的高点上方挂限价卖单
36:05 - 36:07
EN: of this High 1 bull flag after that bear bar.
ZH: 例如，他们会在这根K线的高点上方挂限价卖单
36:07 - 36:11
EN: We have a bear body here, we have a bear body here,
ZH: 这里有一根阴线，前面也是阴线，
36:11 - 36:19
EN: and we have an exhaustive Buy Climax – Parabolic Wedge, one, pullback,
ZH: 背景是抢购高潮，抛物线楔形 ——1，回调，2，回调，3—— 大概率会有两段下跌
36:15 - 36:19
EN: two, pullback, three – we’re probably going to get a couple legs down.
ZH: ——1，回调，2，回调，3—— 大概率会有两段下跌
36:19 - 36:23
EN: And therefore bulls will start taking profits, like above that bear bar,
ZH: 因此多头会开始止盈，比如在那根阴线上方逢高止盈
36:23 - 36:26
EN: and bears will start selling, like above that bear bar.
ZH: 同时空头也会在这里卖出做空
36:26 - 36:30
EN: Or here, we have a Micro Double Top with a big bear bar closing on its low.
ZH: 或者这里，有一个小双顶，大阴线收在最低
36:30 - 36:32
EN: The bears might sell for a second leg down.
ZH: 空头会做空，押注第2段下跌
36:33 - 36:36
EN: Again, the odds of this becoming a bear trend are small.
ZH: 再次强调，它变成下降趋势的概率很小
36:36 - 36:40
EN: The first reversal down probably will be a bull flag.
ZH: 第1次下跌大概率会变成牛旗
36:40 - 36:43
EN: The best the bears can probably hope to get is a Trading Range.
ZH: 震荡区间是空头能得到的最好的结果
36:43 - 36:49
EN: So the reversal down is probably either going to be a bull flag
ZH: 所以下跌之后，要么形成牛旗，然后恢复上涨趋势， 要么变成震荡区间
36:47 - 36:49
EN: for a resumption of the bull trend or a Trading Range.
ZH: 所以下跌之后，要么形成牛旗，然后恢复上涨趋势， 要么变成震荡区间
36:53 - 36:55
EN: All right, so here’s a monthly chart of the Emini.
ZH: 看，这个就是标普股指的月K线
Slide 017
Time: 36:55
Bilingual Transcript
36:56 - 37:01
EN: We have one push up, pullback, second Buy Climax, pullback, third Buy Climax.
ZH: 第1段上涨，回调；第2次抢购高潮，回调； 第3次抢购高潮
37:01 - 37:05
EN: This is therefore a Tight Channel with three pushes up,
ZH: 这个窄通道中，有3次向上的推动，
37:05 - 37:09
EN: and I call that a Parabolic Buy Climax or a Parabolic Wedge Top.
ZH: 我称之为抛物线抢购高潮，或者抛物线楔形顶
37:09 - 37:13
EN: It’s also around a Measured Move up based upon the height of this Trading Range.
ZH: 同时基于震荡区间高度的MM目标位也在这里
37:14 - 37:17
EN: This is probably going to evolve soon into a Trading Range;
ZH: 所以市场很快就会进入震荡区间
37:17 - 37:19
EN: a pullback or a Trading Range.
ZH: 回调，或者横盘
37:22 - 37:26
EN: Here, 38 months without touching the Moving Average.
ZH: 这里，38个月没有碰到过均线
37:27 - 37:31
EN: That has only happened in the cash index twice in the past 50 years.
ZH: 过去50年中，这样的情况只发生过两次
37:32 - 37:39
EN: Do you think it’s going to go 39, 40, 50,
ZH: 会不会39、40、50、60个月，永远不回调到均线？ ——不会
37:35 - 37:39
EN: 60 months without touching the Moving Average? Probably not.
ZH: 会不会39、40、50、60个月，永远不回调到均线？ ——不会
37:39 - 37:47
EN: Once you start to do something that the market has done only once
ZH: 如果某种情况每25年才发生一次， 那么它大概率不会持续太久
37:43 - 37:47
EN: every 25 years, it’s probably not going to do it much longer,
ZH: 如果某种情况每25年才发生一次， 那么它大概率不会持续太久
37:47 - 37:51
EN: and therefore the odds are it has to get down to the Moving Average fairly soon.
ZH: 所以很大的概率，市场不久之后就会回调到均线
37:55 - 37:59
EN: In 1987 the market was above the Moving Average,
ZH: 1987年，市场一直在均线上方，
37:59 - 38:03
EN: just like this, for 38 months, and then the market crashed.
ZH: 就这样涨了38个月，然后崩盘
38:03 - 38:05
EN: It fell 26% in one day.
ZH: 一天之内下跌了26%
38:05 - 38:13
EN: And then in 1997, the market stayed above the Moving Average
ZH: 然后在1997年，市场44个月没有回调到均线， 然后下跌了22%
38:10 - 38:13
EN: for 44 months, but then fell 22%.
ZH: 然后在1997年，市场44个月没有回调到均线， 然后下跌了22%
38:13 - 38:15
EN: A very big correction.
ZH: 非常大的调整
38:16 - 38:19
EN: And therefore, you have to be concerned that whenever the market
ZH: 所以，每当你看到一些极端的行情，
38:19 - 38:24
EN: is doing something extreme, the correction could be very deep.
ZH: 就要考虑到可能会有很深的回调
38:28 - 38:33
EN: Tight Bull Channel all through here, you can only buy.
ZH: 这里全部是窄上涨通道，你只能做多，不能做空
38:32 - 38:33
EN: You cannot sell.
ZH: 这里全部是窄上涨通道，你只能做多，不能做空
38:33 - 38:38
EN: Pullbacks only lasting 1 bar, 1 bar, 1 bar, 1 bar, so you can only be buying.
ZH: 回调只持续1根K线，1根K线，1根K线， 1根K线，所以你只能做多
38:38 - 38:44
EN: But at some point, once you start to get to a number
ZH: 一直涨到某个时刻，历史上极少次发生过连涨这么多根K线的行情
38:41 - 38:48
EN: of bars that has only rarely happened, a lot of traders will switch
ZH: 一直涨到某个时刻，历史上极少次发生过连涨这么多根K线的行情 交易者就不再追涨了，而是开始等待回调
38:45 - 38:48
EN: from buying at the market to buying pullbacks,
ZH: 交易者就不再追涨了，而是开始等待回调
38:48 - 38:52
EN: like down to the Moving Average, or reversals up.
ZH: 比如等回调到均线的时候再买入
38:52 - 38:54
EN: Here we have a Double Bottom at the Moving Average.
ZH: 这里在均线附近形成了双底
38:59 - 39:07
EN: I began by talking about major climactic reversals
ZH: 这节课我先是讲了重要的高潮反转—— 极端的高潮，导致进入相反的趋势
Slide 018
Time: 39:00
Bilingual Transcript
39:02 - 39:07
EN: (extreme behavior that results in an opposite trend),
ZH: 这节课我先是讲了重要的高潮反转—— 极端的高潮，导致进入相反的趋势
39:07 - 39:12
EN: and then I talked about how you can get a climax based upon bars
ZH: 然后我讲了，有时候连续很多根小K线——微通道持续很久
39:12 - 39:20
EN: that are small if you have a lot of them in a series
ZH: 这也是抢购高潮或抛售高潮，只不过它是基于时间，而不是价格
39:14 - 39:20
EN: - a Micro Channel, a Buy Climax or a Sell Climax based upon time more than price.
ZH: 这也是抢购高潮或抛售高潮，只不过它是基于时间，而不是价格
39:24 - 39:25
EN: I’m Al Brooks.
ZH: 我是阿尔·布鲁克斯
39:25 - 39:27
EN: Thank you for watching the Brooks Trading Course.
ZH: 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课
39:27 - 39:32
EN: This is the second of three videos on trading climactic reversals.
ZH: 如何交易高潮反转的第2节课，就先讲到这里